Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2940
{ "count": 6356, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2960", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2920", "results": [ { "id": 25872, "title": "Will 4 or more goals be scored in the two semi-final games combined in the 2024 UEFA European Championship?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-4-or-more-goals-be-scored-in-the-two-semi-final-games-combined-in-the-2024-uefa-european-championship", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:01.910590Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.286954Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T19:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T19:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25872, "title": "Will 4 or more goals be scored in the two semi-final games combined in the 2024 UEFA European Championship?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:01.910590Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T19:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T19:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-10T19:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UEFA European championship is a football tournament held among the men's national teams of EUFA's European members every four years.\n\nUEFA Euro 2024, the 17th edition, is scheduled to take place from June 14 to July 14, 2024.\n\n24 countries will compete in it in six groups. Two countries per group will directly advance to the knockout stage. Out of the six countries getting the third place in their respective group, four will also advance to the knockout stage. The exact rules which countries will advance and what tiebreakers decide can be found here.\n\nThe 16 countries advancing past the group stage will play against each other in the knockout stage.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the total number of goals scored in the two semi-final matches scheduled for July 9, 2024 and July 10, 2024. Any goals in a penalty shootout will not count.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25872, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534710.230315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534710.230315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5932718148218258 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4695780589158345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8783683886933894, 0.03808445092208783, 1.0630123442821822, 0.0, 0.40204024987918746, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6081791859486756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4071492688018454, 0.0, 1.0896604745963794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.511037902327138, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284736, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284736 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534710.260267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534710.260267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4492352827327455, 0.5507647172672545 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UEFA European championship is a football tournament held among the men's national teams of EUFA's European members every four years.\n\nUEFA Euro 2024, the 17th edition, is scheduled to take place from June 14 to July 14, 2024.\n\n24 countries will compete in it in six groups. Two countries per group will directly advance to the knockout stage. Out of the six countries getting the third place in their respective group, four will also advance to the knockout stage. The exact rules which countries will advance and what tiebreakers decide can be found here.\n\nThe 16 countries advancing past the group stage will play against each other in the knockout stage." }, { "id": 25871, "title": "On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-july-17-2024-will-nvidias-market-capitalization-be-larger-than-apples", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:01.751852Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.348460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-18T23:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-18T23:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25871, "title": "On July 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:01.751852Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-18T23:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-18T23:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-18T23:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, on July 17, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to Companies Market Cap, when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "* If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 25871, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720535278.194571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720535278.194571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5030443231201371 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.7397505351980634, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.19496837784713386, 0.5221497875245191, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7934624887287218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4832754980496272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -18.442457113742766, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -18.442457113742766 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720535278.235897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720535278.235897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6854489775859139, 0.31455102241408606 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 25852, "title": "PRACTICE: Will Donald Trump be elected to be US President in 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "practice-will-donald-trump-be-elected-to-be-us-president-in-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-06T17:21:32.329942Z", "published_at": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.382090Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": 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Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, after July 15, 2024, and before October 1, 2024, either the Government of Israel or any two [Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) announce or acknowledge that Israeli ground troops have entered Lebanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear that the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Israel and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Lebanon or the assent of the United Nations.\n\nThe announcements must describe events that take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and October 1, 2024.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Lebanese territory is determined by the 2000 Blue Line.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25846, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727755074.179026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 325, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727755074.179026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 325, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.27573623315894774 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.415451455409568, 4.104494746080827, 1.1387573695119195, 0.5755266941683091, 0.7399355693779153, 1.9989237187065427, 0.41040591146628147, 0.03222432038653818, 0.02541971789782314, 0.9375091610482574, 1.4625942330392152, 0.10911011611327037, 0.7372171801480649, 0.014210474747061592, 1.7809120420196485, 1.1080081963447592, 0.8700430747766431, 0.2982149191567984, 0.002412940132251085, 0.0, 1.9937114377539589, 0.6982250600321023, 0.6142465050645456, 1.0308615075759368e-06, 0.0, 0.9136448255545901, 1.7440969237997217e-05, 1.1257153141072224e-05, 3.7759736174684176e-05, 0.0, 0.20899818919507612, 0.0037857061860485427, 0.0, 0.5273834222018879, 0.0, 0.5583246143251731, 0.007931997218070102, 1.6131195943901082e-06, 2.4691475628435923e-05, 0.005613820368278061, 0.988818071405837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012442529868221443, 0.0032162131564362627, 0.0, 0.5374813636874904, 0.0028448887475408502, 2.0152916648249244, 4.790834113943344e-05, 0.7146585774674399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009222655080406554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01118421333545537, 3.0069978635507107e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5994454621018994, 0.0, 0.0, 3.8929879045992755e-05, 0.0, 0.4929989170321693, 0.0, 0.011958823933853804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005399181546002345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8414048980077458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01111315764671627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5857274542194764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.228821965717828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1923458412201413 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727755074.254834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 329, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727755074.254834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 329, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9421417776580758, 0.05785822234192422 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 35, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2634, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved." }, { "id": 25801, "title": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2030, according to specified criteria?", "short_title": "Normal world in 2030?", "url_title": "Normal world in 2030?", "slug": "normal-world-in-2030", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-07-02T19:04:26.090910Z", "published_at": "2024-07-05T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T00:52:10.360394Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-05T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-05T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 123, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25801, "title": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2030, according to specified criteria?", "created_at": "2024-07-02T19:04:26.090910Z", "open_time": "2024-07-05T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-08T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before January 1, 2030:\n\n- The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes**.\n - **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n- A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** (meaning this is no longer a \"normal\" world) if one or more of the above Metaculus questions has positively resolved before January 1, 2030.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25801, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762908720.157135, "end_time": 1764243544.906744, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762908720.157135, "end_time": 1764243544.906744, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 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0.812986479619698, 0.0, 0.12319881668018823 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287872.499422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287872.499422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3057613369788962, 0.6942386630211038 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 29, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 309, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050." }, { "id": 25791, "title": "Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?", "short_title": "Will Verisign's .com monopoly start to fade?", "url_title": "Will Verisign's .com monopoly start to fade?", "slug": "will-verisigns-com-monopoly-start-to-fade", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-01T20:43:58.027722Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.268871Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T14:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T14:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": 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"html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25791, "title": "Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-01T20:43:58.027722Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T14:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T14:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-05T14:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with the US Department of Commerce (DOC). This means it is the wholesale provider of the .com TLD to every domain name registrar. The American Economic Liberties Projected [has called](https://www.economicliberties.us/press-release/ntia-and-doj-must-break-verisigns-monopoly-power-over-domain-names-advocates-urge/) this arrangement a \"government-designated monopoly over domain registration.\" According to [The American Prospect](https://prospect.org/power/2024-06-27-government-created-most-profitable-company-verisign/):\n\n>You have probably never heard of the most profitable company in America, and possibly the world. It’s a government-granted monopoly that feasts on high margins for a low-dollar administrative product. Today, three advocacy groups pressured the Biden administration to take down the rules in place that enable this gravy train.\n\n>The company is called VeriSign [*sic*], and it has exclusive control of the registration system for the .com domain name. Every year, hundreds of millions of website owners pay VeriSign [*sic*] a small annual fee to keep their .com in working order. Every year, the cost of managing the database to make sure that .com websites work either stays flat or goes down, while the fee for registering a .com website goes up.\n\nThe Cooperative Agreement between Verisign and the US DOC will automatically renew for a six-year term unless the DOC provides notice of non-renewal on August 2, 2024.\n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://archive.ph/IXZ3V#selection-1705.0-1726.0), during the 2018 renewal the Trump Administration lifted the cap on wholesale prices for *.com*. The antitrust advocacy groups have written to the Justice Department to withdraw guidance that allowed the elimination of price caps in the 2018 renewal, with the letters citing President Biden’s 2021 [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/) on competition.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 3, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) officially terminates or sunsets its Cooperative Agreement with Verisign recognizing Verisign's management of the *.com* generic top-level domain (TLD). If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Sunsets\" is defined as the DOC choosing to let the agreement expire without renewal.\n\n\"Terminates\" is defined as the DOC providing written notice of non-renewal \nof the agreement with Verisign.", "post_id": 25791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722516888.572756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722516888.572756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.010120488865577927 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.754713606465641, 3.111355456287346, 0.22631426293135623, 0.7423502785856408, 0.029367576745184032, 0.5321974822422896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0450032524825526, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009821197320900747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03279680079640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.652676996984499, "coverage": 0.9998615166154505, "baseline_score": 92.82034113983616, "spot_peer_score": 8.38820890989312, "peer_archived_score": 4.652676996984499, "baseline_archived_score": 92.82034113983616, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.38820890989312 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722516888.605559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722516888.605559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 192, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with the US Department of Commerce (DOC). This means it is the wholesale provider of the .com TLD to every domain name registrar. The American Economic Liberties Projected [has called](https://www.economicliberties.us/press-release/ntia-and-doj-must-break-verisigns-monopoly-power-over-domain-names-advocates-urge/) this arrangement a \"government-designated monopoly over domain registration.\" According to [The American Prospect](https://prospect.org/power/2024-06-27-government-created-most-profitable-company-verisign/):\n\n>You have probably never heard of the most profitable company in America, and possibly the world. It’s a government-granted monopoly that feasts on high margins for a low-dollar administrative product. Today, three advocacy groups pressured the Biden administration to take down the rules in place that enable this gravy train.\n\n>The company is called VeriSign [*sic*], and it has exclusive control of the registration system for the .com domain name. Every year, hundreds of millions of website owners pay VeriSign [*sic*] a small annual fee to keep their .com in working order. Every year, the cost of managing the database to make sure that .com websites work either stays flat or goes down, while the fee for registering a .com website goes up.\n\nThe Cooperative Agreement between Verisign and the US DOC will automatically renew for a six-year term unless the DOC provides notice of non-renewal on August 2, 2024.\n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://archive.ph/IXZ3V#selection-1705.0-1726.0), during the 2018 renewal the Trump Administration lifted the cap on wholesale prices for *.com*. The antitrust advocacy groups have written to the Justice Department to withdraw guidance that allowed the elimination of price caps in the 2018 renewal, with the letters citing President Biden’s 2021 [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/) on competition." }, { "id": 25769, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-us-offer-india-a-nuclear-submarine-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-01T13:46:12.479741Z", "published_at": "2024-07-01T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.139581Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-01T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-01T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25769, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-01T13:46:12.479741Z", "open_time": "2024-07-01T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T13:53:28.181770Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States makes a public formal agreement with India to build, design, lease, or sell a nuclear-powered submarine for the Indian Navy at any time between January 1, 2022 and Sept 30, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25769, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720382568.198393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720382568.198393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.15266773923854643 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2835570226298483, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 1.796346407406149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.70945463158483, "peer_score": 46.256019954133365, "coverage": 0.8555795777943876, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8555795777943876, "spot_peer_score": 35.07990775700405, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 70.70945463158483, "peer_archived_score": 46.256019954133365, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.07990775700405, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720382568.258813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720382568.258813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9680740687618282, 0.03192593123817174 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 183, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"" }, { "id": 25767, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "short_title": "Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024?", "url_title": "Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024?", "slug": "will-dems-have-brokered-convention-in-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-06-30T21:09:39.806575Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25767, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-30T21:09:39.806575Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-06T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-06T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party requires more than one round of voting in its roll call ballot to formally nominate its candidate for the 2024 US presidential election. If only one ballot is required, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Whether the official presidential roll call vote is conducted virtually or in-person will not affect the resolution of this question. For example, if the roll call is conducted virtually and before the in-person convention, the question will resolve at that point and will resolve as either Yes or No depending on whether more than one round of voting was required.", "post_id": 25767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722953249.935069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722953249.935069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01514294452271187 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.25119632413478, 2.7238674968897567, 0.46618052893767337, 0.0, 0.1482716149044876, 0.0779732025193072, 0.0, 0.8989028589756345, 0.0, 0.0011301539240017998, 0.03485975599792888, 0.00017390859029303986, 0.0, 0.0016575935991125798, 0.0, 0.008814381616854338, 0.003555013765919917, 0.0007184162194738851, 0.002018483553059274, 0.0, 0.6179650935637048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31212619044827367, 0.0002827167223872031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002386417446286252, 0.002748460051482373, 0.0009743893673176235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001525059876562794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.544083362327318e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.097308676200543e-05, 0.0004851829117117352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3839015763848735e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001330996036135543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025477986635491097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003966131525619066 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.063957442852649, "coverage": 0.9956922588307558, "baseline_score": 87.34226396130612, "spot_peer_score": 17.075888435551725, "peer_archived_score": 15.063957442852649, "baseline_archived_score": 87.34226396130612, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.075888435551725 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722934460.813026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722934460.813026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 649, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)" }, { "id": 25755, "title": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "short_title": "Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024?", "url_title": "Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024?", "slug": "biden-announces-drop-out-before-july-15-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-30T05:29:51.569016Z", "published_at": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.640216Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 102, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 214, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25755, "title": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "created_at": "2024-06-30T05:29:51.569016Z", "open_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-02T06:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-02T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.\n\nOn June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated. \n\nBiden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term. \n\nIn [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate. \n\nAs of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.\n\nOn June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):\n\n>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.\n\n>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.\n\nTo qualify for a **Yes** resolution, the statement must be unambiguous and conclusive: it should leave no room for the possibility that Biden would accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.\n\nIf such a definitive statement is not made prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that Joe Biden releasing his delegates is not enough by itself to qualify for a Yes resolution. There must be a definitive, public, official statement that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in 2024.", "post_id": 25755, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720910225.221575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 210, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720910225.221575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 210, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04805731782072956 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.6789034476512033, 10.613625550412882, 5.109396816173699, 0.06698648077379216, 0.07617243347160466, 2.783301700667595, 0.8037610020603806, 0.3855292328690483, 0.4704415709537751, 0.3714409563781609, 1.8607411198542572, 0.0, 0.49671526053379245, 1.3828323339887284e-06, 0.007069364202659466, 0.8212633086873529, 0.0017167224788468593, 0.0013369439924845717, 0.008232796878272745, 0.20045633292084955, 0.14130254130018108, 0.002187980118989623, 0.0, 0.001188284319454295, 0.0, 0.0023222308709706947, 0.0, 0.00460347803303076, 0.003368249166680152, 0.0, 0.0050035238382107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024190565983143363, 0.0, 0.11045824812992058, 9.18618882553368e-05, 0.0001887104056766348, 3.141355342085993e-05, 0.0, 0.0007750602822640982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026220635550182575, 1.402383808700119e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005989640763666538, 0.005222476688455733, 0.0002839190414233491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12621010186925966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010105212106725643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003319135389606362, 0.0, 0.006707400796675769, 0.0, 8.335872854983983e-05, 0.15754327248436237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15845793653608387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009568160587476772 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.06569263892481, "coverage": 0.9975353086824773, "baseline_score": 77.1552181971318, "spot_peer_score": 5.0357813713576585, "peer_archived_score": 15.06569263892481, "baseline_archived_score": 77.1552181971318, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.0357813713576585 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720910225.276106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720910225.276106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986453039347641, 0.0013546960652358448 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 867, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.\n\nOn June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated. \n\nBiden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term. \n\nIn [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate. \n\nAs of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.\n\nOn June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):\n\n>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.\n\n>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”" }, { "id": 25753, "title": "Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?", "short_title": "Masoud Pezeshkian elected President of Iran?", "url_title": "Masoud Pezeshkian elected President of Iran?", "slug": "masoud-pezeshkian-elected-president-of-iran", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-29T15:00:04.446161Z", "published_at": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.686668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25753, "title": "Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?", "created_at": "2024-06-29T15:00:04.446161Z", "open_time": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-30T06:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-30T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19th, Iran is holding new elections. After clerics vetoed several of the candidates, the ones allowed to run faced off on June 28th.\n\nThe very low turnout first round saw relative moderate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili advance to the runoff with 44% and 40% of the votes, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Masoud Pezeshkian is announced as the winner of the 2024 Iranian presidential election, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) or the [IRNA](https://en.irna.ir/) agency. It will resolve **No** if Jalili wins.\n\nIf some outcome happens that is not one of the candidates being announced as the winner, the question will be **Annulled**.", "fine_print": "The question will also be annulled if a winner is not announced before July 21st.\n\nThe winner need not be inaugurated, only a winner being declared in the election is required.", "post_id": 25753, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720113289.692243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720113289.692243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4464753223640251 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2909169046675799, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3491535785367932, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.7167104033792189, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4679105041067944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.8287854636040446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.2242282476777495, "coverage": 0.9760981268686719, "baseline_score": -39.44831100829938, "spot_peer_score": 9.7372038396256, "peer_archived_score": 4.2242282476777495, "baseline_archived_score": -39.44831100829938, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.7372038396256 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720113289.73391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720113289.73391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6226719671391003, 0.37732803286089966 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19th, Iran is holding new elections. After clerics vetoed several of the candidates, the ones allowed to run faced off on June 28th.\n\nThe very low turnout first round saw relative moderate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili advance to the runoff with 44% and 40% of the votes, respectively." }, { "id": 25749, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Russia Controls Chasiv Yar On Oct 1 2024?", "url_title": "Russia Controls Chasiv Yar On Oct 1 2024?", "slug": "russia-controls-chasiv-yar-on-oct-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-06-29T01:22:34.517936Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.168996Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:34.517000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:34.517000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25749, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-29T01:22:34.517936Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T14:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:34.517000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:34.517000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024:\n\n48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E \n\nIf this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) \n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control \n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine \n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:\n\n- Areas with no coloration\n- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".\n\n- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.", "post_id": 25749, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727723701.047441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727723701.047441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.007294984042394695 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.433813648180292, 3.3835955940045874, 0.03789069976444005, 0.3790438963874807, 0.004114140404594805, 0.984782648933561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005025223583386938, 0.0, 0.021273125366464498, 0.002397315038413529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001293184550844436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017334026632215326, 0.0005188593462568196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003530164138588579, 0.0, 0.0021341984025259253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000615974589918873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022660438791516336, 0.0, 0.02000917927428745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014746693272985987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029982420348446974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001853128008366541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007874347717174179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009797596903721127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012614338989262936 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.480512463146678, "coverage": 0.9999966122160495, "baseline_score": 82.35338076081848, "spot_peer_score": 22.001553766344518, "peer_archived_score": 17.480512463146678, "baseline_archived_score": 82.35338076081848, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.001553766344518 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727723701.101158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727723701.101158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 590, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)" }, { "id": 25743, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "short_title": "July-Sept 2024 PRC-Allies Conflict Deaths?", "url_title": "July-Sept 2024 PRC-Allies Conflict Deaths?", "slug": "july-sept-2024-prc-allies-conflict-deaths", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": "2024-06-28T13:23:39.575738Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.583870Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:39.575000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:39.575000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 190, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 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"2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25743, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "created_at": "2024-06-28T13:23:39.575738Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:39.575000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:39.575000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China, Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan as a result of armed conflict, whether caused by China to one of the other parties or inflicted on China by them.", "fine_print": "* Auxiliary forces under the control of a government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly (within 10 days of the first public report of the first qualifying death) be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.\n* \"Armed conflict\" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and at least one of the other entities mentioned. This does not include accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "post_id": 25743, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727678474.359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 185, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727678474.359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 185, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.008203167471584569 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.310363666329835, 8.164262149682258, 0.4927247296375085, 0.05142314684634797, 0.0049038586214688795, 0.2428568435989998, 0.11083460236123699, 0.0, 0.0, 3.367060300310948e-06, 0.01718230033898494, 0.0, 0.24113134793001267, 0.001175788951837356, 0.0006384466058533839, 0.01562599315328636, 2.926281827765843e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.001265068497148e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005017383753279534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026843282706049184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006913148538560929, 0.04445036849150711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.759419234604731, "coverage": 0.9999977215722398, "baseline_score": 98.45151919915807, "spot_peer_score": 9.497434770249654, "peer_archived_score": 4.759419234604731, "baseline_archived_score": 98.45151919915807, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.497434770249654 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727684517.178624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727684517.178624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 448, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory." }, { "id": 25736, "title": "Carbon capture: will there be a miniaturized assay to measure CO₂ absorption of water-based solvents before 2028?", "short_title": "2028: mini assay of carbon capture solvent", "url_title": "2028: mini assay of carbon capture solvent", "slug": "2028-mini-assay-of-carbon-capture-solvent", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-28T10:44:36.871170Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-02T00:22:09.009999Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25736, "title": "Carbon capture: will there be a miniaturized assay to measure CO₂ absorption of water-based solvents before 2028?", "created_at": "2024-06-28T10:44:36.871170Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-06-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "One way to address global warming is to remove greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere or prevent them from getting there in the first place. The former approach is called direct air capture, and the latter is point-source capture. This question focuses on point sources, specifically dilute ones. The CO₂ content in the gas that leaves a coal power plant is usually 3-15%; compared to other, more concentrated industrial sources, this low concentration makes capture harder.\n\nThe process involves passing the CO2-containing gas mixture through a solvent (e.g. a potassium carbonate solution). The solvent contains some variation of an enzyme called carbonic anhydrase, which makes the process more efficient by increasing the amount of CO2 from the incoming gas that is moved into storage. This question focuses on such anhydrases.\n\nThese proteins vary in how tightly they bind carbon dioxide to the solution; binding tightly is desirable from the point of view of removing it from the incoming gas, but undesirable when it comes to transferring it from the solution for storage. This variation contributes to the cost of the whole process of carbon capture, with the ideal catalyst removing a lot of CO₂ and releasing it easily.\n\nSynthetic biology can be used to engineer lower-cost anhydrase varieties. One bottleneck in the process of developing and iterating on candidate enzymes is the assay used to measure how much carbon dioxide they help absorb; existing assays currently require about half a liter of the solvent, and the enzyme is used at a concentration on the order of ~1 mg/mL, therefore requiring 0.1-1 g of enzyme per experiment. These conditions are not very representative of the actual conditions of the capture process; therefore, different assays are sought.\n\nIt is projected that an assay that requires less than 100 microliters of aqueous solvent, uses less than 5 milligrams of the enzyme and does not immobilize it onto a solid support or matrix would fit these conditions of matching the actual capture process. We therefore ask: will such an assay be developed by the end of 2027?", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves as **Yes** if an assay exists before January 1, 2028 that:\n\n* measures the absorption rate of carbon dioxide in aqueous solvents;\n* does so in conditions that generally match those of dilute point-source capture;\n* requires less than 100 μL of the solvent;\n* requires less than 5 mg of carbonic anhydrase;\n* does not immobilize the enzyme;\n* can either be purchased in a batch of 100 units, or has reported yearly sales of at least 1,000. The sales figure can be annualized if the product becomes available shortly before the question closes; sales of 250 in a quarter count as 1,000 a year.\n\nIf there are no credible reports of an assay meeting all of the above criteria before January 1, 2028, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25736, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759364518.666264, "end_time": 1786593413.405, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759364518.666264, "end_time": 1786593413.405, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.0712359552918199 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287044.730941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287044.730941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9813943281449399, 0.018605671855060114 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "One way to address global warming is to remove greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere or prevent them from getting there in the first place. The former approach is called direct air capture, and the latter is point-source capture. This question focuses on point sources, specifically dilute ones. The CO₂ content in the gas that leaves a coal power plant is usually 3-15%; compared to other, more concentrated industrial sources, this low concentration makes capture harder.\n\nThe process involves passing the CO2-containing gas mixture through a solvent (e.g. a potassium carbonate solution). The solvent contains some variation of an enzyme called carbonic anhydrase, which makes the process more efficient by increasing the amount of CO2 from the incoming gas that is moved into storage. This question focuses on such anhydrases.\n\nThese proteins vary in how tightly they bind carbon dioxide to the solution; binding tightly is desirable from the point of view of removing it from the incoming gas, but undesirable when it comes to transferring it from the solution for storage. This variation contributes to the cost of the whole process of carbon capture, with the ideal catalyst removing a lot of CO₂ and releasing it easily.\n\nSynthetic biology can be used to engineer lower-cost anhydrase varieties. One bottleneck in the process of developing and iterating on candidate enzymes is the assay used to measure how much carbon dioxide they help absorb; existing assays currently require about half a liter of the solvent, and the enzyme is used at a concentration on the order of ~1 mg/mL, therefore requiring 0.1-1 g of enzyme per experiment. These conditions are not very representative of the actual conditions of the capture process; therefore, different assays are sought.\n\nIt is projected that an assay that requires less than 100 microliters of aqueous solvent, uses less than 5 milligrams of the enzyme and does not immobilize it onto a solid support or matrix would fit these conditions of matching the actual capture process. We therefore ask: will such an assay be developed by the end of 2027?" }, { "id": 25730, "title": "If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?", "short_title": "US controls Tehran in war with Iran", "url_title": "US controls Tehran in war with Iran", "slug": "us-controls-tehran-in-war-with-iran", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T21:56:29.791495Z", "published_at": "2024-07-04T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T22:13:06.832718Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-04T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-04T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25730, "title": "If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T21:56:29.791495Z", "open_time": "2024-07-04T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-07T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States and Iran have had poor relations since the 1979 [Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution). Since the October 7 [attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) on Israel, tensions between the two countries have grown even higher due to attacks against US and Israeli targets by Iran-backed groups. This has led many to speculate that tensions between the two countries could escalate into an all-out war, particularly if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US election and pursues a more aggressive policy against Iran than Joe Biden. If the US were to go to war with Iran, it is likely that [Russia](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240605-putin-warns-that-russia-could-supply-weapons-to-others-to-strike-western-targets) (and possibly other countries hostile to the US) would provide Iran with as much aid as it could as payback for the US and NATO arming Ukraine, which could complicate US invasion plans.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States controls the entirety of [Tehran city's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehran) pre-war administrative boundaries according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) within 365 days of a congressional [declaration of war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war_by_the_United_States) or [Authorization for Use of Military Force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authorization_for_Use_of_Military_Force) (AUMF) by the United States going into effect. Territorial control will be determined based on reporting from credible war mappers. If there is no such declaration of war or AUMF before January 1, 2030, this question will be **Annulled**. Only territorial control by US and Iranian government forces will be considered for the purpose of this question. Control by other parties such as insurgents/partisans will not be taken into account. If within the year after an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran this US control of Tehran does not occur, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25730, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762035175.987361, "end_time": 1763622143.008637, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762035175.987361, "end_time": 1763622143.008637, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.18691688698194717 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4628442690363802, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.9039144894018473, 0.13533528323661267, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.6546490049230134, 0.0, 1.2479696983050694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9293231672836759, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.5773450823295869, 0.15917957049677586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19087229513091974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288085.692496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288085.692496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8873015565749469, 0.11269844342505309 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States and Iran have had poor relations since the 1979 [Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution). Since the October 7 [attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) on Israel, tensions between the two countries have grown even higher due to attacks against US and Israeli targets by Iran-backed groups. This has led many to speculate that tensions between the two countries could escalate into an all-out war, particularly if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US election and pursues a more aggressive policy against Iran than Joe Biden. If the US were to go to war with Iran, it is likely that [Russia](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240605-putin-warns-that-russia-could-supply-weapons-to-others-to-strike-western-targets) (and possibly other countries hostile to the US) would provide Iran with as much aid as it could as payback for the US and NATO arming Ukraine, which could complicate US invasion plans." }, { "id": 25720, "title": "Before 2030, will citizen science initiatives to collect plant phenomic/genomic data across the globe receive at least $10 million in investment?", "short_title": "2030: $10M for plant data citizen science", "url_title": "2030: $10M for plant data citizen science", "slug": "2030-10m-for-plant-data-citizen-science", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T17:36:31.699428Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.838807Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-06-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25720, "title": "Before 2030, will citizen science initiatives to collect plant phenomic/genomic data across the globe receive at least $10 million in investment?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T17:36:31.699428Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-06-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-06-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Describing and cataloging plant species worldwide, and especially in less developed countries, often encounters bureaucratic obstacles with permits, funding and visas. An alternative is to train local residents, especially students, in how to perform the technical tasks required, so they can contribute data about their home regions. That, however, requires funding; will it happen in the next five years?\n\nSee Also \n\nProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: [Data-driven approaches can harness crop diversity to address heterogeneous needs for breeding products](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10083534/)\n\nNature Ecology & Evolution: [Citizen science plant observations encode global trait patterns](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01904-x)\n\nScience Advances: [The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz0414)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if:\n\n* there are initiatives to involve ordinary people in collecting scientific data about plants in their local area;\n* these initiatives cover at least 30 countries in the Africa, Asia/Pacific and Latin America/Caribbean regions, with at least 4 countries in each of them;\n* in total, these initiatives receive at least $10 million in monetary investments.", "fine_print": "Territories included in the scope of this question are those south of a line that includes the southern US land and sea border, the Mediterranean territorial waters between the Strait of Gibraltar and the Syrian-Turkish border, then the land borders of Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the stretch of the Russian border between the Caspian Sea and the Pacific Ocean. Australia and New Zealand are also excluded, but other territories such as Israel or French Guiana are included.\n\nInitiatives only count if they are open for participation by anyone in a given geographical area, without discrimination. It is allowed to require technical qualifications, but if the initiative itself offers this kind of training, it must be provided on this non-discriminatory basis.\n\nInvestment values will be inflation-adjusted to US dollars of 2024.\n\nThe term \"ordinary people\" is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Citizen_science&oldid=1230609025) as \"the general public, or amateur/nonprofessional researchers or participants for science.\" \n\n\"Citizen science\" is defined by the Oxford English Dictionary as \"scientific work undertaken by members of the general public, often in collaboration with or under the direction of professional scientists and scientific institutions.\"\n\nIn-kind (i.e., non-monetary) contributions will not count towards the $10 million threshold. \n\nThis question resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 25720, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755062096.960894, "end_time": 1765186754.592922, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755062096.960894, "end_time": 1765186754.592922, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.6681762675169846 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6843503220564977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288076.473008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288076.473008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6471248373637194, 0.3528751626362806 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Describing and cataloging plant species worldwide, and especially in less developed countries, often encounters bureaucratic obstacles with permits, funding and visas. An alternative is to train local residents, especially students, in how to perform the technical tasks required, so they can contribute data about their home regions. That, however, requires funding; will it happen in the next five years?\n\nSee Also \n\nProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: [Data-driven approaches can harness crop diversity to address heterogeneous needs for breeding products](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10083534/)\n\nNature Ecology & Evolution: [Citizen science plant observations encode global trait patterns](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01904-x)\n\nScience Advances: [The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz0414)" }, { "id": 25719, "title": "Before 2035, will an open source database of agricultural uses cover 25% of known plant species?", "short_title": "2035: plant farm use DB >25% species?", "url_title": "2035: plant farm use DB >25% species?", "slug": "2035-plant-farm-use-db-25-species", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T17:05:11.334280Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.747460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-06-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", 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"created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25719, "title": "Before 2035, will an open source database of agricultural uses cover 25% of known plant species?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T17:05:11.334280Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-06-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-06-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are ~300,000 land plant species, of which only a couple hundred are currently used in agriculture. A source of information about genomic and phenomic information from a broader set of species might lead to new agricultural uses to improve the food supply resilience, mitigate climate-related stressors, and increase productivity. Will such a database be built?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, a database exists with all the following properties:\n\n* the information in it is open source, meaning it is free to access and use;\n* it contains data about at least 25% of all known land plant species;\n* it is geared towards information plausibly useful for agricultural applications.", "fine_print": "The question focuses on the clade *Embryophyta*. Green algae and other species that can be called \"plants\" but are not in this clade are excluded.\nThis clade has about 300,000 known species, but only a couple hundred are currently farmed; these count for question resolution. Twenty-five percent of 300,000 is 75,000. \n\nThe database should allow users to search for a given kind of plant and get general information such as its scientific name, taxonomic classification, geographic distribution and basic ecology. It is acceptable for this general information to be provided via links to other sources (e.g. Wikipedia).\n\nThe information in the database itself can include \"laboratory-style\" data such as genetic sequences and phenomic descriptions, and also less formal observations from vernacular uses of plants.\n\nSpecies count for the total if they were known to be living at any point between question creation and resolution; mass extinctions do not change the total over which this question resolves. New species discoveries do.\n\nThe agricultural uses and techniques referred to in the database may be realized or only proposed/hypothetical; data might also be more general and not propose any specific use, as long as it can conceivably be used that way. E.g. \"the mandrake root contains 37% of high-quality starch\" is information that would count.\n\nAgriculture means any economic activity which requires growing plants. A non-exhaustive list of economic uses includes: direct human or animal consumption, construction, fuel, raw materials for industry (including pharmaceuticals), and aesthetics. Production can occur in a traditional soil farm, hydroponics, vertical farming or other technologies that might be developed to sustain the plants.\n\nFor this question, agriculture requires growing whole plant organisms, as opposed to just cultured cells or tissues. Any context where human-originated activities provide whole plants with conditions for their growth counts as \"growing\" them. Pruning does not affect the \"whole\" status.\n\nWhile cell cultures and other forms of partial plants do not count, it does count if selective breeding or other techniques are used to change the sizes and proportions of plant parts to favor more economically useful ones.\n\nThe database should be generally geared towards plausible agricultural uses, but resolution does not need to critique articles on specific plants for the plausibility of their proposed uses; the judgement of the person resolving it determines whether a given existing database fits the criteria.", "post_id": 25719, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749437163.224663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.283 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749437163.224663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.283 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27540206394500766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.269773848660403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287574.374223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287574.374223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8710891903248517, 0.12891080967514837 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are ~300,000 land plant species, of which only a couple hundred are currently used in agriculture. A source of information about genomic and phenomic information from a broader set of species might lead to new agricultural uses to improve the food supply resilience, mitigate climate-related stressors, and increase productivity. Will such a database be built?" }, { "id": 25711, "title": "On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-july-21-2024-will-the-closing-value-of-bse-sensex-be-greater-than-75k-and-less-than-or-equal-to-76k", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:11.007993Z", "published_at": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.014749Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25711, "title": "On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:11.007993Z", "open_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:47:31.343852Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.\n\nIndia's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the elections, the SENSEX has experienced significant volatility, beginning with a [drop of almost 6%](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/5/india-election-why-modis-narrow-win-has-the-stock-market-in-a-spin) on June 4th, followed by a significant bounce on June 5th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the closing value of the BSE SENSEX on July 21, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720334135.711402, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720334135.711402, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.24955690148252196 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720337742.047839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720337742.047839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9691894903374733, 0.03081050966252679 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.\n\nIndia's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the elections, the SENSEX has experienced significant volatility, beginning with a [drop of almost 6%](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/5/india-election-why-modis-narrow-win-has-the-stock-market-in-a-spin) on June 4th, followed by a significant bounce on June 5th." }, { "id": 25710, "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-sept-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.933802Z", "published_at": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.542986Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25710, "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.933802Z", "open_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:09.002276Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\n\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\n\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \n\n***Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?***", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before Sept 15, 2024, according to credible press reports or a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform. The valuation will be in nominal USD, not adjusted for inflation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25710, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720302908.819823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720302908.819823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5720896187046329 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720302908.848407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720302908.848407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.44363254758973236, 0.5563674524102676 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\n\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\n\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \n\n***Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?***" }, { "id": 25709, "title": "Between July 1 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "between-july-1-and-july-28-2024-will-the-strongest-geomagnetic-storm-have-a-k-index-kp-greater-than-6-and-less-than-or-equal-to-8", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.725540Z", "published_at": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.343989Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the highest Planetary K-index (\"Kp\") between July 1 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive), according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product.", "fine_print": "* Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. 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The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively." } ] }
