Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2940
{ "count": 5974, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2960", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2920", "results": [ { "id": 20091, "title": "Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Kalshi Wins CFTC Lawsuit?", "url_title": "Kalshi Wins CFTC Lawsuit?", "slug": "kalshi-wins-cftc-lawsuit", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-22T16:34:36.593431Z", "published_at": "2023-11-23T18:41:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.963391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-23T18:41:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-23T18:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20091, "title": "Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission before November 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-22T16:34:36.593431Z", "open_time": "2023-11-23T18:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-26T18:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-26T18:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-21T16:30:01.935193Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "KalshiEX LLC [sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/predictions-market-kalshi-sues-cftc-blocking-election-contracts-2023-11-01/) for overstepping its authority by rejecting its proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control. Kalshi argued these contracts, aimed at hedging against economic risks from political changes, don't involve unlawful acts and are in the public interest. The CFTC declined to comment but previously expressed concerns about the contracts involving unlawful gaming and not being in the public's interest. The lawsuit claims the CFTC violated the Administrative Procedures Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if either of the following occurs before November 1, 2024:\n\n1. An initial litigated bench or jury verdict rules that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) overstepped its authority by rejecting KalshiEX LLC's proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control. \n2. A settlement is reached such that the proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control is approved.\n\nOtherwise, the question will resolve **No**", "fine_print": "This question regards only the initial lawsuit, and not any subsequent appeals or parallel suits.", "post_id": 20091, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728328987.449543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728328987.449543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9607616022787939 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.671378809237581 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -104.7154826107748, "peer_score": -6.743872011367325, "coverage": 0.8367989136441745, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9980685755807684, "spot_peer_score": 0.2270148534538822, "baseline_archived_score": -104.7154826107748, "peer_archived_score": -6.743872011367325, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.2270148534538822 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287182.618878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287182.618878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0449983746444198, 0.9550016253555802 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "KalshiEX LLC [sued the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/predictions-market-kalshi-sues-cftc-blocking-election-contracts-2023-11-01/) for overstepping its authority by rejecting its proposal for derivatives contracts to bet on congressional control. Kalshi argued these contracts, aimed at hedging against economic risks from political changes, don't involve unlawful acts and are in the public interest. The CFTC declined to comment but previously expressed concerns about the contracts involving unlawful gaming and not being in the public's interest. The lawsuit claims the CFTC violated the Administrative Procedures Act." }, { "id": 20090, "title": "Will any \"Freedom Cities\" be built in the United States before 2040?", "short_title": "Freedom Cities before 2040?", "url_title": "Freedom Cities before 2040?", "slug": "freedom-cities-before-2040", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-22T16:06:03.611951Z", "published_at": "2023-11-23T18:28:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.202870Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-23T18:28:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-23T18:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20090, "title": "Will any \"Freedom Cities\" be built in the United States before 2040?", "created_at": "2023-11-22T16:06:03.611951Z", "open_time": "2023-11-23T18:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-26T18:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-26T18:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump, aiming for a 2024 presidential bid, proposed building up to [10 \"freedom cities\"](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/03/trump-policy-futuristic-cities-00085383) on federal land, featuring futuristic concepts like flying cars. \n\n> Trump says he would host a contest for the public to design and then build “Freedom Cities” on a small portion of federal land to “reopen the frontier, reignite American imagination, and give hundreds of thousands of young people and other people, all hardworking families, a new shot at home ownership and in fact, the American Dream.”\n\nThis plan, part of his vision to lead America in air mobility and away from China, lacks detailed funding strategies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to **Yes** if the U.S. federal government approves a \"Freedom City\" before January 1, 2040, and credible reports indicate at least 10,000 people live in the city before that date. The city must be a new development and not a reclassification of an existing city.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"Freedom City\" will be any new city created on federal land that is the result of a competitive process to solicit new ideas for America's future.", "fine_print": "The term \"Freedom City\" does not need to be used, as long as the above criteria are met.", "post_id": 20090, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756689156.163224, "end_time": 1769799857.346719, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756689156.163224, "end_time": 1769799857.346719, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11645851061596747 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6776022841044091, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0844043823626969, 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null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288099.095379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9417204210920351, 0.05827957890796492 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump, aiming for a 2024 presidential bid, proposed building up to [10 \"freedom cities\"](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/03/trump-policy-futuristic-cities-00085383) on federal land, featuring futuristic concepts like flying cars. \n\n> Trump says he would host a contest for the public to design and then build “Freedom Cities” on a small portion of federal land to “reopen the frontier, reignite American imagination, and give hundreds of thousands of young people and other people, all hardworking families, a new shot at home ownership and in fact, the American Dream.”\n\nThis plan, part of his vision to lead America in air mobility and away from China, lacks detailed funding strategies." }, { "id": 20063, "title": "Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?", "short_title": "Israel-Hamas Humanitarian Pause Extension?", "url_title": "Israel-Hamas Humanitarian Pause Extension?", "slug": "israel-hamas-humanitarian-pause-extension", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-22T14:47:45.127312Z", "published_at": "2023-11-22T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.822039Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-22T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-28T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-28T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-22T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20063, "title": "Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?", "created_at": "2023-11-22T14:47:45.127312Z", "open_time": "2023-11-22T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-23T14:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-23T14:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-28T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-28T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-28T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 22, 2023, [Qatar announced](https://www.mofa.gov.qa/en/statements/the-state-of-qatar-announces-that-a-humanitarian-pause-has-been-agreed-in-gaza) that Israel and Hamas had reached an agreement to implement a humanitarian pause. The announcement reads a follows:\n\n>The State of Qatar announces the success of its joint mediation efforts undertaken with the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United States of America between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), resulting in an agreement for a humanitarian pause. The starting time of the pause will be announced within the next 24 hours and last for four days, subject to extension.\n>\n>The agreement includes the release of 50 civilian women and children hostages currently held in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of a number of Palestinian women and children detained in Israeli prisons, the number of those released will be increased in later stages of implementing the agreement.\n>\n>The humanitarian pause will also allow the entry of a larger number of humanitarian convoys and relief aid, including fuel designated for humanitarian needs.\n>\n>The State of Qatar affirms its commitment to ongoing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions, stop the bloodshed, and protect civilians. In this regard, the State of Qatar appreciates the efforts of the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United States of America in reaching this agreement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the length of the November 2023 humanitarian pause between Israel and Hamas has been extended beyond the default length of four days **and** the extension has begun. If credible sources report that the humanitarian pause will not begin this question will be **annulled**. If the four-day humanitarian pause begins but credible sources report that it has ended before the default length was reached this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* The extension or ending of the pause will be determined based on credible reports stating that the pause has officially been ended or has officially been extended. Media reports that one side is not respecting the pause will be immaterial. For example, if Hamas leadership were to criticize a strike taken by Israel during the pause, or vice versa, this question will still resolve as **Yes** so long as credible sources report that the pause was extended.\n* The extension must actually commence, an agreement to extend the pause is not sufficient. If the extension to the pause starts but is then called off by one or more sides, this still resolves as **Yes**.", "post_id": 20063, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701213815.756885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701213815.756885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9636537206528203 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007075207321053673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020648529180236237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23101119857349836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011447523820651048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027408287615106786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001185942719911764, 0.0, 0.0021168258563742832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003924187352744774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016037777780894943, 0.0018474598062165907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18098334706477048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027848308169029852, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36684550159524315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3248049114922376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06341426086404857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4067750550550023, 0.0, 0.006734474812209602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026907419588751195, 0.0, 0.07284764691086593, 1.6208043235054663, 0.0, 0.7452084014465021, 14.234319308018605 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.313629935629617, "coverage": 0.6871592928232647, "baseline_score": 3.9639707362860728, "spot_peer_score": 13.565293502111608, "peer_archived_score": 10.313629935629617, "baseline_archived_score": 3.9639707362860728, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.565293502111608 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701161496.197872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701161496.197872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.020582730433435836, 0.9794172695665642 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 320, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 22, 2023, [Qatar announced](https://www.mofa.gov.qa/en/statements/the-state-of-qatar-announces-that-a-humanitarian-pause-has-been-agreed-in-gaza) that Israel and Hamas had reached an agreement to implement a humanitarian pause. The announcement reads a follows:\n\n>The State of Qatar announces the success of its joint mediation efforts undertaken with the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United States of America between Israel and the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), resulting in an agreement for a humanitarian pause. The starting time of the pause will be announced within the next 24 hours and last for four days, subject to extension.\n>\n>The agreement includes the release of 50 civilian women and children hostages currently held in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of a number of Palestinian women and children detained in Israeli prisons, the number of those released will be increased in later stages of implementing the agreement.\n>\n>The humanitarian pause will also allow the entry of a larger number of humanitarian convoys and relief aid, including fuel designated for humanitarian needs.\n>\n>The State of Qatar affirms its commitment to ongoing diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions, stop the bloodshed, and protect civilians. In this regard, the State of Qatar appreciates the efforts of the Arab Republic of Egypt and the United States of America in reaching this agreement." }, { "id": 20056, "title": "Will Argentina fully dollarize its economy before 2028?", "short_title": "Argentinean dollarization", "url_title": "Argentinean dollarization", "slug": "argentinean-dollarization", "author_id": 159551, "author_username": "benced", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-21T07:21:17.335002Z", "published_at": "2023-11-22T22:33:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T16:00:31.286958Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-22T22:33:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-22T22:33:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20056, "title": "Will Argentina fully dollarize its economy before 2028?", "created_at": "2023-11-21T07:21:17.335002Z", "open_time": "2023-11-22T22:33:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-25T22:33:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-25T22:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 19th, 2023, Argentina [elected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-readies-vote-likely-presidential-election-thriller-2023-11-19/) Javier Milei as President. His political party, [the Libertarian Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_Party_(Argentina)) will hold 7 of 72 seats in the upper house of Argentina's Congress and 38 of 257 in its lower house.\n\nMilei has promised to fully dollarize the economy and get rid of the Argentinean peso which means the US dollar (USD) would be the only state-recognized form of exchange in Argentina. De facto dollarization, where citizens partially or primarily conduct their business in USD is [arguably](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/argentina-dollar-love-affair-agonizes-over-divorcing-peso-2023-09-05/) already the status quo in Argentina. \n\nThis move is controversial among economists with [some](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-18/argentina-s-future-is-promising-with-the-dollar) in support due to what they see as irresponsible monetary policy by Argentina's central bank. It is opposed by [others](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/javier-milei-dollar-plan-argentina-economy) who note the logistical issues with dollarizing and monetary sovereignty concerns.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before, 00:00 on January 1, 2028, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Argentina has removed the peso as a medium of exchange and adopted the US dollar.", "fine_print": "The time in the resolution criteria is relative to the time zone \"America/Argentina/Buenos_Aires\" in the IANA tz database.", "post_id": 20056, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757865620.259126, "end_time": 1758817979.235669, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757865620.259126, "end_time": 1758817979.235669, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11075983800879349 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1664919554179964, 0.3007852796029772, 0.8554006031583444, 0.3385132465983543, 0.0, 0.9930497301650778, 0.0, 0.2274691399399458, 0.7288213086725668, 0.0, 2.5333090716301565, 0.0, 0.3075491113325782, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 1.9960086172459566, 1.0259310658945204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26548633854134185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14984332909134115, 0.401327957992393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.155777321450633 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288986.904638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288986.904638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9871826553130105, 0.012817344686989434 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 203, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 19th, 2023, Argentina [elected](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-readies-vote-likely-presidential-election-thriller-2023-11-19/) Javier Milei as President. His political party, [the Libertarian Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarian_Party_(Argentina)) will hold 7 of 72 seats in the upper house of Argentina's Congress and 38 of 257 in its lower house.\n\nMilei has promised to fully dollarize the economy and get rid of the Argentinean peso which means the US dollar (USD) would be the only state-recognized form of exchange in Argentina. De facto dollarization, where citizens partially or primarily conduct their business in USD is [arguably](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/argentina-dollar-love-affair-agonizes-over-divorcing-peso-2023-09-05/) already the status quo in Argentina. \n\nThis move is controversial among economists with [some](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-08-18/argentina-s-future-is-promising-with-the-dollar) in support due to what they see as irresponsible monetary policy by Argentina's central bank. It is opposed by [others](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/20/javier-milei-dollar-plan-argentina-economy) who note the logistical issues with dollarizing and monetary sovereignty concerns." }, { "id": 20043, "title": "Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?", "short_title": "AI Board Departs by December 2023?", "url_title": "AI Board Departs by December 2023?", "slug": "ai-board-departs-by-december-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-20T20:37:29.335187Z", "published_at": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.873827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20043, "title": "Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-11-20T20:37:29.335187Z", "open_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/11/20/microsoft-openai-sam-saltman-fired/).\n\n> The future of OpenAI was thrown into chaos Monday after nearly all employees at the artificial intelligence company threatened to quit and join ousted chief executive Sam Altman at Microsoft, extending the dramatic Silicon Valley boardroom saga.\n\n> More than 700 of the company’s roughly 770 employees have signed a letter threatening to quit unless the current board resigns and reappoints Altman as CEO, according to a person familiar with the matter. In a bizarre twist, the letter included among the signatories Ilya Sutskever, the company’s chief scientist and a key member of the company’s four-person board, who voted to oust Altman on Friday.\n\n> “Your actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI,” the employees wrote in the letter. “We are unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgment and care for our mission and employees.”", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if at least three of the following individuals leave the [OpenAI board](https://openai.com/our-structure) before December 1, 2023:\n\n- Ilya Sutskever\n- Adam D'Angelo\n- Helen Toner\n- Tasha McCauley", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20043, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701360881.195042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701360881.195042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.8964435689470817 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12082870651021416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11036964111932797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4380198073063507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9454293710025076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002608200027234153, 0.3269704843282063, 0.0, 0.30232657805504126, 0.0, 0.025194092214829794, 0.004317504220680495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04909477220831166, 0.0, 0.8544637672359097, 0.18616056073700932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1711754945605547, 1.0231663490220817, 0.0, 1.0493453935567438, 1.821653383432241, 0.16874541969743467, 1.3064336113396071, 0.2327499949525908, 0.19327838296676042, 0.2785879388871889, 4.257371419549838 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.900122187980331, "coverage": 0.9220539432841963, "baseline_score": 75.63300478793563, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 8.900122187980331, "baseline_archived_score": 75.63300478793563, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701304101.791899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701304101.791899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2627113605575472, 0.7372886394424528 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/11/20/microsoft-openai-sam-saltman-fired/).\n\n> The future of OpenAI was thrown into chaos Monday after nearly all employees at the artificial intelligence company threatened to quit and join ousted chief executive Sam Altman at Microsoft, extending the dramatic Silicon Valley boardroom saga.\n\n> More than 700 of the company’s roughly 770 employees have signed a letter threatening to quit unless the current board resigns and reappoints Altman as CEO, according to a person familiar with the matter. In a bizarre twist, the letter included among the signatories Ilya Sutskever, the company’s chief scientist and a key member of the company’s four-person board, who voted to oust Altman on Friday.\n\n> “Your actions have made it obvious that you are incapable of overseeing OpenAI,” the employees wrote in the letter. “We are unable to work for or with people that lack competence, judgment and care for our mission and employees.”" }, { "id": 20042, "title": "Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians in 2023?", "short_title": "Gaza/Israel ≥20 prisoners exchanged in 2023?", "url_title": "Gaza/Israel ≥20 prisoners exchanged in 2023?", "slug": "gazaisrael-20-prisoners-exchanged-in-2023", "author_id": 158946, "author_username": "rationalTrader", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-20T20:18:20.706773Z", "published_at": "2023-11-21T23:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.034680Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-21T23:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-25T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-25T21:48:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-21T23:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20042, "title": "Will Israel and Hamas conduct a prisoner exchange involving ≥20 Israelis and ≥20 Palestinians in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-11-20T20:18:20.706773Z", "open_time": "2023-11-21T23:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-24T23:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-24T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-25T21:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-25T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-25T21:48:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Per [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-do-we-now-about-hamas-hostages-2023-10-19/) on October 20, Hamas has said it captured 200 hostages and that 50 more are held by other groups in Gaza, while public broadcaster Kan said 200 Israelis were being held in Gaza. \n\nOn October 26, Hamas said that \"almost 50\" of those held captive had died in Israeli strikes on Gaza. On 2 November, it said a further 7 had died in a strike on the Jabalia refugee camp. These numbers may change and may not be very accurate as intense bombing persists. (https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3239336/israel-gaza-war-hamas-says-almost-50-israeli-hostages-killed-tel-avivs-raids)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes based on credible reports that a hostage exchange has been carried out. Through the exchange:\n\n- Hamas must release at least 20 Israelis\n- Israel must release at least 20 Palestinians", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20042, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701075356.700115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701075356.700115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9581683832130742 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7201714429323804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 5.353054176031218 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.043660214115434, "coverage": 0.09317170626484501, "baseline_score": 7.826315464236449, "spot_peer_score": 20.702678125064768, "peer_archived_score": 1.043660214115434, "baseline_archived_score": 7.826315464236449, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.702678125064768 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700898214.384742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700898214.384742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17238111914322096, 0.827618880856779 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Per [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-do-we-now-about-hamas-hostages-2023-10-19/) on October 20, Hamas has said it captured 200 hostages and that 50 more are held by other groups in Gaza, while public broadcaster Kan said 200 Israelis were being held in Gaza. \n\nOn October 26, Hamas said that \"almost 50\" of those held captive had died in Israeli strikes on Gaza. On 2 November, it said a further 7 had died in a strike on the Jabalia refugee camp. These numbers may change and may not be very accurate as intense bombing persists. (https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3239336/israel-gaza-war-hamas-says-almost-50-israeli-hostages-killed-tel-avivs-raids)" }, { "id": 20039, "title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?", "url_title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?", "slug": "will-adobe-acquire-figma-by-the-end-of-2024", "author_id": 122796, "author_username": "taylor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-20T18:14:36.347516Z", "published_at": "2023-11-24T21:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.005312Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-24T21:02:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T03:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-24T21:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20039, "title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-20T18:14:36.347516Z", "open_time": "2023-11-24T21:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-27T21:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-27T21:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T03:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T03:31:02.790738Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.\n\nSince then, reports have emerged that the [U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-preparing-antitrust-suit-block-adobe-plan-buy-figma-bloomberg-news-2023-02-23/).\n\nAdobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe [no longer lists XD in its product lineup](https://www.adobe.com/products/catalog.html) and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if Adobe announces that it has completed a deal to acquire Figma before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654192.913913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654192.913913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.038731397604098036 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.873036367957305, 2.568942386617731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4482977324842707, 0.11519676350251623, 0.0, 0.23761652173150052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31473508132901346, 0.0, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19529391852860173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.66479372439136, "peer_score": 14.718630540489391, "coverage": 0.998721171004741, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.998721171004741, "spot_peer_score": -36.40172197801928, "spot_baseline_score": -35.845397091247634, "baseline_archived_score": 93.66479372439136, "peer_archived_score": 14.718630540489391, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -36.40172197801928, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -35.845397091247634 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288837.796761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288837.796761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.\n\nSince then, reports have emerged that the [U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-preparing-antitrust-suit-block-adobe-plan-buy-figma-bloomberg-news-2023-02-23/).\n\nAdobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ChatGPT's uptime has exceeded 99% for every month except the month of launch, with Feburary at 98.28%.\n\nSoftware reliability is often measured in \"number of 9\"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc. \n\nOpenAI's future is uncertain following the ouster of CEO Sam Altman, prompting speculation that ChatGPT may [cease to work](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/openai-facts-from-a-weekend).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on January 1, 2024, [OpenAI's status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69?page=1) for both ChatGPT and the API reports ≥ 99% uptime for the month of December 2023. It resolves **No** otherwise, including in cases where the status page ceases to exist.\n\nThe question also resolves **No** if OpenAI discontinues either ChatGPT or the API and the status page is not updated to reflect this.\n\nForecasters can find the uptime in grey text to the right of the relevant month. 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"title": "Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?", "short_title": "Sweden to join NATO before 2025?", "url_title": "Sweden to join NATO before 2025?", "slug": "sweden-to-join-nato-before-2025", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-20T02:06:47.917238Z", "published_at": "2023-12-10T17:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.711264Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-10T17:34:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-07T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-10T17:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 167, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": 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false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NATO is an is an intergovernmental military alliance established in the aftermath of World War II. During the Cold War, the main purpose of NATO was to provide collective security against the Soviet Union and its allies, the Warsaw Pact. Recently, NATO has provided a European system of security against Russia, viewed by many in Europe as a hostile threat, especially after its invasion of Ukraine.\n\nSweden was neutral throughout both World Wars. However, in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its neighbor Finland, which also had [a longstanding policy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61397478) of neutrality, [joined NATO](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_213448.htm).\n\nRecently, Sweden has applied to NATO. NATO accession requires the unanimous consent of NATO members, and Turkey has [delayed](https://www.reuters.com/world/swedens-nato-bid-delayed-turkish-parliament-2023-11-16/) its vote on Sweden has NATO. A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/) asked if Sweden would join NATO before 2024. Here, we ask if Sweden will join NATO before 2025.\n\nDisclaimer: I [sourced much of the description](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220301-ukraine-war-brings-sweden-finland-even-closer-to-nato) from here.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if an official statement by NATO or the Country of Sweden, issued before January 1, 2025, declares that Sweden has joined NATO.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20024, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709830304.369463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709830304.369463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9847145919368961 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05940701006835118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003623688351123739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4412294050064586e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8041281968122976e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0819334350998952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13130865043769122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010501389282214616, 0.17154352868427936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001161045971767773, 0.0, 0.0, 5.76817155346047e-05, 0.09188713666050591, 0.009632751597422598, 0.0, 0.23926431870156656, 0.0, 0.0796925279804124, 0.000532630203749628, 0.06494856035059231, 0.1922876560471084, 0.2746665087913894, 1.2090814705521813, 0.2594333558431626, 21.47116872944777 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.0598774417074444, "coverage": 0.22686243995294778, "baseline_score": 20.630945761477154, "spot_peer_score": -4.30860501719498, "peer_archived_score": 1.0598774417074444, "baseline_archived_score": 20.630945761477154, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.30860501719498 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709830304.41847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709830304.41847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.013551351108717968, 0.986448648891282 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 438, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NATO is an is an intergovernmental military alliance established in the aftermath of World War II. During the Cold War, the main purpose of NATO was to provide collective security against the Soviet Union and its allies, the Warsaw Pact. Recently, NATO has provided a European system of security against Russia, viewed by many in Europe as a hostile threat, especially after its invasion of Ukraine.\n\nSweden was neutral throughout both World Wars. However, in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its neighbor Finland, which also had [a longstanding policy](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61397478) of neutrality, [joined NATO](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_213448.htm).\n\nRecently, Sweden has applied to NATO. NATO accession requires the unanimous consent of NATO members, and Turkey has [delayed](https://www.reuters.com/world/swedens-nato-bid-delayed-turkish-parliament-2023-11-16/) its vote on Sweden has NATO. A [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/) asked if Sweden would join NATO before 2024. Here, we ask if Sweden will join NATO before 2025.\n\nDisclaimer: I [sourced much of the description](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220301-ukraine-war-brings-sweden-finland-even-closer-to-nato) from here." }, { "id": 20005, "title": "Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?", "short_title": "Altman and Brockman compete w/OpenAI?", "url_title": "Altman and Brockman compete w/OpenAI?", "slug": "altman-and-brockman-compete-wopenai", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-18T01:32:12.966931Z", "published_at": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.381051Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:09:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 133, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20005, "title": "Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-11-18T01:32:12.966931Z", "open_time": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-18T03:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T20:13:16.321906Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \n\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\n\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\n\nIn a [tweet](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771) the same day, Altman said he would have news on next steps soon.\n\nShortly thereafter, OpenAI President and Chairman of the Board Greg Brockman tweeted \"[I quit](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1725667410387378559).\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2025, both Sam Altman and Greg Brockman are either:\n\n1. Cofounders of a new company that aims to train foundation models\n2. Employees of an existing company that aims to train foundation models\n\nThat company must not be OpenAI. They must both be cofounders or employees at the same company.", "fine_print": "\"Foundation models\" will be considered to be those described by the language below from the [draft EU AI Act](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2023-0236_EN.html#:~:text=group%20of%20persons%3B-,Amendment%20168,-Proposal%20for%20a). Metaculus may make a determination if there is ambiguity regarding whether a company founded by or employing both individuals aims to train foundation models.\n\n>‘foundation model’ means an AI system model that is trained on broad data at scale, is designed for generality of output, and can be adapted to a wide range of distinctive tasks.", "post_id": 20005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735663660.871821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735663660.871821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008449444925870077 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.130653934502007, 3.135207517134116, 1.1266609424021024, 0.06087143816219785, 0.005323600755571802, 0.6979841168308447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03128863589536731, 0.0, 0.014730426446164667, 0.0, 0.003199054436297065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012944370157688177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015751294069565332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001499273284268887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022447319625320487, 0.03545480462694312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001217034044601483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008944419714548969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051487848047288017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007777436678298278, 0.0, 0.00018908250074967597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.31685856162349e-05, 4.596912012091613e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.257907399559651e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007291736541752871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004112937101196632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0379143593955233e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006101814103512079, 0.0006901175411598853 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.33569413361363, "peer_score": 33.07034438714823, "coverage": 0.9999599650464766, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999599650464766, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 96.33569413361363, "peer_archived_score": 33.07034438714823, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286914.545378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286914.545378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986714551385844, 0.0013285448614156798 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 621, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \n\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\n\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\n\nIn a [tweet](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771) the same day, Altman said he would have news on next steps soon.\n\nShortly thereafter, OpenAI President and Chairman of the Board Greg Brockman tweeted \"[I quit](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1725667410387378559).\"" }, { "id": 19999, "title": "Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?", "short_title": "Sam Altman Indicted before 2026?", "url_title": "Sam Altman Indicted before 2026?", "slug": "sam-altman-indicted-before-2026", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-17T23:36:44.259069Z", "published_at": "2023-11-18T01:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:56:13.009354Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-18T01:30:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-18T01:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19999, "title": "Will Sam Altman be indicted before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-11-17T23:36:44.259069Z", "open_time": "2023-11-18T01:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-18T23:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-18T23:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \n\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\n\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\n\nIt is not yet known in what areas, or why, Altman was \"not consistently candid\" with the OpenAI board.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if before January 1, 2026, Sam Altman has been indicted in the United States on any charge(s) alleging violation of state or federal law. The question resolves No if this does not occur.", "fine_print": "No conviction is necessary for a Yes resolution; this question concerns only indictment.", "post_id": 19999, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758492057.9115, "end_time": 1761897806.268, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758492057.9115, "end_time": 1761897806.268, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.008023402298542742 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.7416682744351615, 1.8330830335914177, 1.1834111627292563, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.03783186888355768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289898.568047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289898.568047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9962635416498593, 0.003736458350140683 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 250, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \n\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\n\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\n\nIt is not yet known in what areas, or why, Altman was \"not consistently candid\" with the OpenAI board." }, { "id": 19998, "title": "Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?", "short_title": "Altman returns to OpenAI?", "url_title": "Altman returns to OpenAI?", "slug": "altman-returns-to-openai", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-17T23:28:31.586841Z", "published_at": "2023-11-18T00:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.507130Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-18T00:30:00Z", "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-18T00:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 178, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19998, "title": "Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-11-17T23:28:31.586841Z", "open_time": "2023-11-18T00:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-18T23:47:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-18T23:47:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T01:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \r\n\r\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\r\n\r\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\r\n\r\nIn a [tweet](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771) the same day, Altman said he loved his time at OpenAI.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if Sam Altman is announced as OpenAI's CEO and returns to the position before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "If an announcement occurs before January 1, 2026, but Altman does not assume the role until after that date, the question resolves No.", "post_id": 19998, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701339019.931381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701339019.931381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9700824890568787 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00107379242299376, 0.0001209432395906319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015125967966683887, 0.0, 0.0003889638072470363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19705490239159953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012459656721735483, 0.0, 0.00027938054705782403, 0.0, 0.0011757622955760442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022961922596122973, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6011373092504962e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1432068101507745e-05, 0.0, 6.882702111404779e-05, 0.0, 0.482289877367239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018574437693811396, 3.1075582982034795e-05, 0.0022451604936222433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005739269829387515, 5.6938610186649746e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014686178481337206, 0.0006386457443445881, 0.0, 0.0012672776933286929, 0.0, 0.0050672412490143075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008634860290756102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03407851471559448, 0.0, 0.693245994679904, 0.0010899214648233322, 0.4636107816015632, 0.043624454872363744, 0.0, 0.5600796545972766, 1.390307018540648, 1.0486307142364018, 1.2350007821179179, 19.093438116214806 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.575727029938093, "coverage": 0.015489645047340116, "baseline_score": 0.6242962809172764, "spot_peer_score": 63.31975530410158, "peer_archived_score": 0.575727029938093, "baseline_archived_score": 0.6242962809172764, "spot_peer_archived_score": 63.31975530410158 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701303798.500392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701303798.500392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11443741727655543, 0.8855625827234446 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 663, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 17, 2023, Sam Altman was [fired as CEO of OpenAI](https://www.wsj.com/tech/sam-altman-departs-open-ai-mira-murati-interim-ceo-41f6d51e). \r\n\r\nIn a [statement](https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition), OpenAI's board said:\r\n\r\n> Mr. Altman’s departure follows a deliberative review process by the board, which concluded that he was not consistently candid in his communications with the board, hindering its ability to exercise its responsibilities. The board no longer has confidence in his ability to continue leading OpenAI.\r\n\r\nIn a [tweet](https://twitter.com/sama/status/1725631621511184771) the same day, Altman said he loved his time at OpenAI." }, { "id": 19997, "title": "Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?", "short_title": "Respiratory \"Tripledemic\" (Rates) in 2023-24?", "url_title": "Respiratory \"Tripledemic\" (Rates) in 2023-24?", "slug": "respiratory-tripledemic-rates-in-2023-24", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-17T22:42:00.328871Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.608493Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-03T15:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"close_date": "2025-07-01T20:27:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:27:29.753744Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T12:22:31.888026Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19997, "title": "Will the weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV equal or exceed 3.0 in the same week in the 2023-24 season?", "created_at": "2023-11-17T22:42:00.328871Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-04T22:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-04T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T15:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T15:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-03T15:39:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, the sum of the following rates for the three respiratory illnesses:\n\n* COVID-19: 9.3\n* Flu: 8.7\n* RSV: 4.2", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if all of COVID, influenza, and RSV show a hospitalization rate of 3.0 or higher in the same week for at least one week in the 2023-24 season, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters. For the purposes of this question, the 2023-2024 season will be considered to begin with the week ending on October 7, 2023, and end on the week ending June 1, 2024.\n\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the relevant figures for the current season is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.", "fine_print": "* The following filters will be selected:\n\n * **Chart Selection:** \"Season\"\n * **View:** \"Weekly Rates\"\n * **Season:** \"2023-24\"\n * **Pathogen:** \"All\"", "post_id": 19997, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704458193.769311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704458193.769311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8477002700970496 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9509882786855701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 1.429330681666337, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5288293908805635 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.990004312037289, "coverage": 0.18507401066256504, "baseline_score": -14.663139519796397, "spot_peer_score": -29.836572062856465, "peer_archived_score": 0.990004312037289, "baseline_archived_score": -14.663139519796397, "spot_peer_archived_score": -29.836572062856465 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704277880.937682, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704277880.937682, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16953185669247917, 0.8304681433075208 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, the sum of the following rates for the three respiratory illnesses:\n\n* COVID-19: 9.3\n* Flu: 8.7\n* RSV: 4.2" }, { "id": 19977, "title": "Will Pete Rose be reinstated by MLB by 2045?", "short_title": "MLB reinstates Pete Rose before 2045?", "url_title": "MLB reinstates Pete Rose before 2045?", "slug": "mlb-reinstates-pete-rose-before-2045", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-17T01:23:36.064387Z", "published_at": "2023-12-15T01:07:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.014096Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-15T01:07:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T16:37:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-06T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-22T16:37:52Z", "open_time": "2023-12-15T01:07:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19977, "title": "Will Pete Rose be reinstated by MLB by 2045?", "created_at": "2023-11-17T01:23:36.064387Z", "open_time": "2023-12-15T01:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-18T01:07:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-18T01:07:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-06T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-22T16:37:52Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-22T16:47:57.820585Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2045-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-22T16:37:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pete Rose is the MLB hit champion with 4,256 career hits. He had an extended stint as a player and manager of the Cincinnati Reds. He was banned by Commissioner Bart Giamatti after an investigation revealed that he had gambled in games that he managed, although the reports produced no evidence that he ever bet against his team.\n\nOther plays banned from the game for gambling related offensives, such as \"Shoeless\" Joe Jackson, were never reinstated.\n\nHe is still recognized and commemorated by the Reds since his number 14 has been retired.", "resolution_criteria": "A positive resolution would occur if Pete Rose has been declared eligible for the Hall of Fame by Major League Baseball before January 1, 2045. \n\nAs for \"reinstatement\", a decree from Major League Baseball that explicitly declares that Pete Rose (specifically) or other banned individuals (generally but understood to be inclusive of Rose) can be admitted to the Hall of Fame without directly stating that Rose has been \"reinstated\" or declared \"eligible\" would count as a \"reinstatement\". This decree would have to come from Major League Baseball as it would not be sufficient for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum to allow Pete Rose to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Such as scenario can count as \"reinstatement\" only in the event that Pete Rose has died, since a deceased Pete Rose would not enjoy the other privileges that eligible people can enjoy, such as employment on the behalf of a professional baseball club affiliated with MLB.\n\nIf Pete Rose is reinstated or posthumously declared eligible for the Hall of Fame by Major League Baseball, but the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum does not admit Pete Rose to the Hall of Fame, that would be sufficient for a positive resolution.", "fine_print": "If MLB breaks up or gets absorbed into another league, then the question will resolve be annulled For example, a merger of Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball, such that MLB no longer exists, would be considered sufficient for an \"annulled\" resolution. If MLB annexes another small league or a team(s) from another league, then the question can resolve either \"yes\" or \"no\" since for the purposes of this question, the continuity of MLB has been maintained.", "post_id": 19977, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719869202.657255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.243 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719869202.657255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.243 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.757, 0.243 ], "means": [ 0.241504056692359 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287872.849465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287872.849465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8898833447007661, 0.1101166552992339 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pete Rose is the MLB hit champion with 4,256 career hits. He had an extended stint as a player and manager of the Cincinnati Reds. He was banned by Commissioner Bart Giamatti after an investigation revealed that he had gambled in games that he managed, although the reports produced no evidence that he ever bet against his team.\n\nOther plays banned from the game for gambling related offensives, such as \"Shoeless\" Joe Jackson, were never reinstated.\n\nHe is still recognized and commemorated by the Reds since his number 14 has been retired." }, { "id": 19975, "title": "Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant be classified as a Variant of Concern (VOC) or worse in the United States before March 1, 2024?", "short_title": "COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024?", "url_title": "COVID VOC or Worse Before March 1, 2024?", "slug": "covid-voc-or-worse-before-march-1-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-16T22:00:24.449479Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.507798Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T15:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T15:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", 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"2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-04T22:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-04T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T15:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T15:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-01T15:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group (SIG), established by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, coordinates between the CDC, National Institutes of Health, Food and Drug Administration, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, and Department of Defense. This group is responsible for classifying and monitoring emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.\n\nThe US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) tracks [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html) classified by the SIG. As of December 1, 2023, the CDC shows four variant classifications which describe the characteristics of certain variants for use in informing the public health response. The four classifications are described as follows:\n\n**Variants Being Monitored (VBM)**\n>. . . Variants designated as VBM include:\n>\n>* lineages with potential impact on available medical countermeasures based on analysis of genetic sequence data.\n>* lineages that previously caused more severe disease or increased transmission but that are no longer detected.\n>* lineage with an unusually large number of antigenic mutations AND presence in multiple countries with collection dates within 4 weeks.\n>*lineages previously designated as a VOI, VOC, or VOHC that are currently circulating at very low levels in the United States.\n>\n>A Variant of Interest or a Variant of Concern may be downgraded to this list after it is no longer circulating at sustained levels and no longer poses significant risk to public health in the United States. Classifications may change over time, based on the evolving situation and information available.\n\n**Variant of Interest (VOI)**\n>. . . Variants designated as VOI include variants that have:\n>\n>* reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination.\n>* reduced efficacy of FDA approved treatments, or diagnostic tests.\n>* predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.\n>\n>Possible attributes of a Variant of Interest include:\n>\n>* specific genetic markers that are predicted to affect transmission, diagnostics, therapeutics, or immune escape.\n>* evidence that it is the cause of an increased proportion of cases or unique outbreak clusters.\n\n**Variant of Concern (VOC)**\n>. . . In addition to the possible attributes of a variant of interest, variants designated as VOC include:\n>\n>* increase in transmissibility.\n>* more severe disease (for example, increased hospitalizations or deaths).\n>* significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination.\n>* reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.\n\n**Variant of High Consequence (VOHC)**\n>A VOHC has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants. . . In addition to the possible attributes of a variant of concern, variants designated as VOHC include impact on MCMs such as:\n>\n>* demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets.\n>* evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease.\n>* significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple EUA or approved therapeutics.\n>* more severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations.\n\nThe variant class hierarchy is described by the CDC as follows:\n\n>Each variant classification includes the possible attributes of lower classes (for example, VOC includes the possible attributes of VOI). . . U.S. classifications may differ from the WHO classifications because the impact of variants may differ by location.\n\nAs of December 1, 2023, only \"Omicron (parent lineages)\" is classified as a VOC. All other variants are classified as VBM, except for \"variants containing the F456L spike mutations\" which is classified as a VOI. Previously the only variants to have reached the level of VOC were Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Omicron, though all but \"Omicron (parent lineages)\" have since been downgraded.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2023 and before March 1, 2024, the SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group announces (or the CDC [shows on its SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html)) a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) or Variant of High Consequence (VOHC) that was not previously identified as a VOC or VOHC at any point.", "fine_print": "If a new variant is classified using a new classification that is clearly described as being a level above VOC or having properties in addition to the possible attributes of a VOC or VOHC this question will also resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 19975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709152543.546421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709152543.546421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.022367312491161286 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.605680493508817, 2.759318850316543, 0.08256815757193207, 0.39271883258523693, 0.016579741893434776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02892019494468926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06549491799116114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0044440085329729906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11946929754074909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26357008825228284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.554151676139143, "coverage": 0.9985261286460055, "baseline_score": 97.39641370228262, "spot_peer_score": 4.424136251794816, "peer_archived_score": 3.554151676139143, "baseline_archived_score": 97.39641370228262, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.424136251794816 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192038.930101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192038.930101, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 214, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group (SIG), established by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, coordinates between the CDC, National Institutes of Health, Food and Drug Administration, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, and Department of Defense. This group is responsible for classifying and monitoring emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants.\n\nThe US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) tracks [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html) classified by the SIG. As of December 1, 2023, the CDC shows four variant classifications which describe the characteristics of certain variants for use in informing the public health response. The four classifications are described as follows:\n\n**Variants Being Monitored (VBM)**\n>. . . Variants designated as VBM include:\n>\n>* lineages with potential impact on available medical countermeasures based on analysis of genetic sequence data.\n>* lineages that previously caused more severe disease or increased transmission but that are no longer detected.\n>* lineage with an unusually large number of antigenic mutations AND presence in multiple countries with collection dates within 4 weeks.\n>*lineages previously designated as a VOI, VOC, or VOHC that are currently circulating at very low levels in the United States.\n>\n>A Variant of Interest or a Variant of Concern may be downgraded to this list after it is no longer circulating at sustained levels and no longer poses significant risk to public health in the United States. Classifications may change over time, based on the evolving situation and information available.\n\n**Variant of Interest (VOI)**\n>. . . Variants designated as VOI include variants that have:\n>\n>* reduced neutralization by antibodies generated against previous infection or vaccination.\n>* reduced efficacy of FDA approved treatments, or diagnostic tests.\n>* predicted increase in transmissibility or disease severity.\n>\n>Possible attributes of a Variant of Interest include:\n>\n>* specific genetic markers that are predicted to affect transmission, diagnostics, therapeutics, or immune escape.\n>* evidence that it is the cause of an increased proportion of cases or unique outbreak clusters.\n\n**Variant of Concern (VOC)**\n>. . . In addition to the possible attributes of a variant of interest, variants designated as VOC include:\n>\n>* increase in transmissibility.\n>* more severe disease (for example, increased hospitalizations or deaths).\n>* significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies generated during previous infection or vaccination.\n>* reduced effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, or diagnostic detection failures.\n\n**Variant of High Consequence (VOHC)**\n>A VOHC has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants. . . In addition to the possible attributes of a variant of concern, variants designated as VOHC include impact on MCMs such as:\n>\n>* demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets.\n>* evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease.\n>* significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple EUA or approved therapeutics.\n>* more severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations.\n\nThe variant class hierarchy is described by the CDC as follows:\n\n>Each variant classification includes the possible attributes of lower classes (for example, VOC includes the possible attributes of VOI). . . U.S. classifications may differ from the WHO classifications because the impact of variants may differ by location.\n\nAs of December 1, 2023, only \"Omicron (parent lineages)\" is classified as a VOC. All other variants are classified as VBM, except for \"variants containing the F456L spike mutations\" which is classified as a VOI. Previously the only variants to have reached the level of VOC were Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Omicron, though all but \"Omicron (parent lineages)\" have since been downgraded." }, { "id": 19969, "title": "Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?", "short_title": "More foreign aid for Ukraine?", "url_title": "More foreign aid for Ukraine?", "slug": "more-foreign-aid-for-ukraine", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-16T19:31:05.566141Z", "published_at": "2023-11-28T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.133885Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-28T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-14T15:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-14T15:45:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-28T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19969, "title": "Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-16T19:31:05.566141Z", "open_time": "2023-11-28T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-01T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-14T15:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-14T15:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-14T15:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**See also**: [How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18694/amount-of-new-ukraine-aid-package/)\n\nBetween January 2022 and July 2023, the US has provided Ukraine with $46.6 billion in military aid, $3.9 billion in humanitarian aid and $26.4 billion in financial aid, totaling roughly $77 billion, according to a recent analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)\n\nDespite previous bipartisan support on September 30, 2023 the US Congress passed a bill that [didn't include](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrat-senator-temporarily-held-up-senate-vote-hours-before-shutdown-over-ukraine-funding) new foreign aid for Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves as _Yes_ if at any point in time between November 16, 2023 and January 1, 2024 credible sources report that the US Congress has approved an additional package of foreign aid for Ukraine. The foreign aid must be included in a bill (or bills) sent to President Biden for signature by the end of the day on December 31, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19969, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703016883.214438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703016883.214438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6197480931312594 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8769447279504142, 1.1795091499409536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01698211627615795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022188915831439535, 0.0, 0.024447322569741404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03211265593215371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2022232047570948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13208739417665719, 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"movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702559936.582408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702559936.582408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.984860733867536, 0.015139266132463965 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**See also**: [How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18694/amount-of-new-ukraine-aid-package/)\n\nBetween January 2022 and July 2023, the US has provided Ukraine with $46.6 billion in military aid, $3.9 billion in humanitarian aid and $26.4 billion in financial aid, totaling roughly $77 billion, according to a recent analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)\n\nDespite previous bipartisan support on September 30, 2023 the US Congress passed a bill that [didn't include](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/democrat-senator-temporarily-held-up-senate-vote-hours-before-shutdown-over-ukraine-funding) new foreign aid for Ukraine." }, { "id": 19966, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against a member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force before 2027?", "short_title": "Israeli officials charged by ICC?", "url_title": "Israeli officials charged by ICC?", "slug": "israeli-officials-charged-by-icc", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-16T17:53:10.300922Z", "published_at": "2023-11-25T20:59:00Z", "edited_at": 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Subsequently, Israel executed air strikes and military ground operations in Gaza.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if any member of the Israeli Government or Israeli Defense Force is charged by the International Criminal Court before January 1, 2027 for any crime in relation to Isreal's military actions in Gaza following Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7th 2023.\n\nPer the [Rome Statute](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf)—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following [categories](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works):\n\n- Genocide\n- Crimes against humanity\n- War crimes\n- Crimes of aggression\n- Offences against the administration of justice\n\nThe ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19966, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732211714.652716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732211714.652716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.8985412874480896 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0067717765537705695, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.002949293081317581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007114722222280082, 0.0, 0.12716653551049145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010070387089084703, 0.013291901200468375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04705968077438683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4105956687466944, 0.011600507024289436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017210119101531127, 0.007446731347793363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13813894976991253, 0.0, 0.6831013776873005, 0.0, 0.02464062427608051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07358758626297761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37113480134217347, 0.2618424251183547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39818867837781474, 1.1231492334904558, 0.70497885357677, 0.457422476445143, 1.362834444077666, 0.4723907103600613, 0.3456744826662608, 0.14989147521115825, 0.6800889222764867, 0.22205743285900253, 0.1672631187330676, 0.1923238700640858, 0.0, 1.282757144176969, 4.855178907247419 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 4.129601527011089, "peer_score": 19.359196610522037, "coverage": 0.47123188357378404, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9993999346018353, "spot_peer_score": -50.15997780829407, "baseline_archived_score": 4.129601527011089, "peer_archived_score": 19.359196610522037, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -50.15997780829407 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289260.381894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289260.381894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.12531826332944185, 0.8746817366705582 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 326, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas) launched a deadly attack on Israel on the 7th of October 2023. Subsequently, Israel executed air strikes and military ground operations in Gaza." }, { "id": 19960, "title": "Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Will Santos be expelled form the house?", "url_title": "Will Santos be expelled form the house?", "slug": "will-santos-be-expelled-form-the-house", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-16T17:10:20.384432Z", "published_at": "2023-11-16T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.206172Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-16T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-01T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-01T16:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-16T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19960, "title": "Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. 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On the 16th of November, [the House Ethics committee released a report into various aspects of Santos' conduct](https://ethics.house.gov/press-releases/statement-chairman-and-ranking-member-committee-ethics-regarding-representative-76). Santos has not resigned, but has announced he will not seek reelection at the end of his term, at the end of the current session. Expulsion from the House requires a two-thirds majority vote, a high threshold historically rarely met. Only [five members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_representatives_expelled,_censured,_or_reprimanded) have been expelled in the House's history, typically for severe misconduct like treason or bribery.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the House of Representatives expels Representative George Santos from the House of Representatives before January 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701452629.294153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701452629.294153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.862162360219116 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0978269360296038, 0.06308219652282594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3235495858073233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.2168121871892493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05275309199865699, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16003643602089318, 0.0, 0.42855776383303873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030314528419522604, 0.2610605836134001, 0.0, 0.15685721197324565, 0.0, 1.5830563415644021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3188535044522034, 0.0, 1.029072067536883, 0.7228487183092426, 0.14006392172911664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.630982437986904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39086599043581904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.429572421466178 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.16118650988642, "coverage": 0.32902280026213804, "baseline_score": 7.597584050072047, "spot_peer_score": 96.13896635215512, "peer_archived_score": 20.16118650988642, "baseline_archived_score": 7.597584050072047, "spot_peer_archived_score": 96.13896635215512 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701446148.499136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701446148.499136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1268253910959054, 0.8731746089040946 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "George Santos, a U.S. Representative, faces scrutiny over fabrications in his background and potential legal issues. On the 16th of November, [the House Ethics committee released a report into various aspects of Santos' conduct](https://ethics.house.gov/press-releases/statement-chairman-and-ranking-member-committee-ethics-regarding-representative-76). Santos has not resigned, but has announced he will not seek reelection at the end of his term, at the end of the current session. Expulsion from the House requires a two-thirds majority vote, a high threshold historically rarely met. Only [five members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_representatives_expelled,_censured,_or_reprimanded) have been expelled in the House's history, typically for severe misconduct like treason or bribery." }, { "id": 19959, "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", "short_title": "2024 US popular vote: 3rd party ≥ 15%?", "url_title": "2024 US popular vote: 3rd party ≥ 15%?", "slug": "2024-us-popular-vote-3rd-party-15", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 115666, "username": "Cato" }, { "id": 111743, "username": "NathanpmYoung" } ], "created_at": "2023-11-16T16:24:30.524441Z", "published_at": "2023-11-17T18:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.449031Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-17T18:54:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-17T18:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19959, "title": "Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?", "created_at": "2023-11-16T16:24:30.524441Z", "open_time": "2023-11-17T18:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-20T18:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-20T18:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T16:10:45.617477Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\n\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 15% or more of the national popular vote, and **No** if one does not", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19959, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730744824.888688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730744824.888688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.009872213823078315 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.73665239726177, 1.6996993076830509, 0.18672356173200788, 0.0, 0.4900981023547899, 0.11751598837018307, 0.009167091186681414, 0.005537830714382473, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03625538578438271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06818282742296448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.98020178879122, "peer_score": 5.3424447349641175, "coverage": 0.9998641159325258, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998641159325258, "spot_peer_score": 5.663221306159479, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "baseline_archived_score": 96.98020178879122, "peer_archived_score": 5.3424447349641175, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.663221306159479, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289656.014046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289656.014046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although [large numbers of Americans consistently say they want a third party](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx), electoral performance of parties other than the Democratic and Republican parties has historically been poor. For example, no non-Democrat non-Republican has won a presidential election since [1848](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1848_United_States_presidential_election).\n\nThe most recent time a non-Democrat non-Republican received over 10% of the national popular vote was 1992, with Perot-Stockdale winning 19%. (Perot-Choate came close in 1996, with 8%.)" }, { "id": 19949, "title": "Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?", "short_title": ">500,000 Palestinians displaced?", "url_title": ">500,000 Palestinians displaced?", "slug": "500000-palestinians-displaced", "author_id": 159175, "author_username": "JimKat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-16T01:04:25.924687Z", "published_at": "2023-11-24T21:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:57:33.166415Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-24T21:15:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-24T21:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 115, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19949, "title": "Will at least 500,000 Palestinians be displaced from Gaza before December 31st, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-11-16T01:04:25.924687Z", "open_time": "2023-11-24T21:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-27T21:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-27T21:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Israel has pushed [1.7 million people](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-20/ty-article/1-7-million-palestinians-displaced-from-their-homes-in-gaza-un-says/0000018b-ee55-d6a0-a7ff-ee779f3f0000), much of the Gazan population, into the southern half of the strip and [intends to expand its war](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-offensive-crowded-south-gaza-will-put-civilians-crosshairs-2023-11-18/) to the strip's southern border with Egypt.\n\nThe New York Times [reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/world/middleeast/israel-egypt-gaza.html) that Israel has petitioned Egypt to accept mass numbers of refugees. At least [one Israeli government document](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-30/ty-article/.premium/israeli-govt-document-suggests-possible-relocation-of-gazans-to-northern-sinai/0000018b-7ff6-d1da-a1bb-7ffe83ed0000) explored the possibility of resettling Gazans in Sinai and concluded that it is the best of the available options.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** based on credible reports that 500,000 or more Palestinians have left Gaza before December 31st 2025.\n\nReports of displacement within Gaza - for instance, from the north to the south - are not sufficient to resolve this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19949, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758476203.866557, "end_time": 1759939671.245, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758476203.866557, "end_time": 1759939671.245, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.15999725642518933 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.093775628604687, 0.8100912163326809, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 3.637965746248461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 1.6046172092252415, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.515444567933963, 0.0, 0.40459651090500304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287865.692276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287865.692276, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9481593055621488, 0.05184069443785122 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 350, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel has pushed [1.7 million people](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-11-20/ty-article/1-7-million-palestinians-displaced-from-their-homes-in-gaza-un-says/0000018b-ee55-d6a0-a7ff-ee779f3f0000), much of the Gazan population, into the southern half of the strip and [intends to expand its war](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-offensive-crowded-south-gaza-will-put-civilians-crosshairs-2023-11-18/) to the strip's southern border with Egypt.\n\nThe New York Times [reports](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/world/middleeast/israel-egypt-gaza.html) that Israel has petitioned Egypt to accept mass numbers of refugees. At least [one Israeli government document](https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-10-30/ty-article/.premium/israeli-govt-document-suggests-possible-relocation-of-gazans-to-northern-sinai/0000018b-7ff6-d1da-a1bb-7ffe83ed0000) explored the possibility of resettling Gazans in Sinai and concluded that it is the best of the available options." } ] }
