Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2960
{ "count": 6357, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2980", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2940", "results": [ { "id": 25709, "title": "Between July 1 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "between-july-1-and-july-28-2024-will-the-strongest-geomagnetic-storm-have-a-k-index-kp-greater-than-6-and-less-than-or-equal-to-8", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.725540Z", "published_at": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.343989Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", 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"2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25709, "title": "Between July 1 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.725540Z", "open_time": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:48:02.758688Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the highest Planetary K-index (\"Kp\") between July 1 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive), according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product.", "fine_print": "* Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. In the resolution source, Kp values are rounded to the nearest thousandth.", "post_id": 25709, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720221453.275165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720221453.275165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6089211756384451 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720221453.304683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720221453.304683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4219974214467911, 0.5780025785532089 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively." }, { "id": 25708, "title": "Between July 1 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "between-july-1-and-july-28-2024-will-the-strongest-geomagnetic-storm-have-a-k-index-kp-greater-than-7-and-less-than-or-equal-to-8", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.653755Z", "published_at": "2024-07-04T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.754380Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-04T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-04T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": 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"2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25708, "title": "Between July 1 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.653755Z", "open_time": "2024-07-04T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:48:17.158534Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-05T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the highest Planetary K-index (\"Kp\") between July 1 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive), according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product.", "fine_print": "* Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. 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The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively." }, { "id": 25707, "title": "Between July 1 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 7?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "between-july-1-and-july-28-2024-will-the-strongest-geomagnetic-storm-have-a-k-index-kp-greater-than-6-and-less-than-or-equal-to-7", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.582013Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.513535Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the highest Planetary K-index (\"Kp\") between July 1 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive), according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product.", "fine_print": "* Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. 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The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the number of SpaceX Starship launches that reach low-Earth orbit, defined as achieving an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, by Sept 30, 2024.\n\nThe resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.", "fine_print": "- In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.", "post_id": 25706, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719951896.738315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719951896.738315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.4195908315698707 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.82534352835656, "peer_score": 16.409423661455044, "coverage": 0.9863510071072314, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9863510071072314, "spot_peer_score": 90.00270181027982, "spot_baseline_score": 16.349873228287958, "baseline_archived_score": 35.82534352835656, "peer_archived_score": 16.409423661455044, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 90.00270181027982, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 16.349873228287958 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719951896.767665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719951896.767665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6527215627726499, 0.34727843722735 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. 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Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\"." }, { "id": 25703, "title": "On Sept 15, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-sept-15-2024-will-nvidias-market-capitalization-be-larger-than-apples", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.133102Z", "published_at": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.784706Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25703, "title": "On Sept 15, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.133102Z", "open_time": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:48:49.428070Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, on Sept 15, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to Companies Market Cap, when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "* If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 25703, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719700182.56027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719700182.56027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4700320574394116 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719700182.603803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719700182.603803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7156774996629174, 0.2843225003370826 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 25702, "title": "Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-sept-30-2024-will-the-international-criminal-court-issue-arrest-warrants-for-any-of-the-listed-israeli-leaders", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.054593Z", "published_at": 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"2025-01-05T04:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:46:07.818657Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for any of the below listed Israeli cabinet members. It will resolve as No otherwise.\n\nBenjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister)\nYoav Gallant (Defense Minister)\nHerzi Halevi (IDF Chief of Staff)", "fine_print": "A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Sept 30, 2024. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Sept 30, 2024, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 25702, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719592114.385294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719592114.385294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5813820830615831 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 2.75759160796734, "peer_score": -1.2876299638848585, "coverage": 0.9930558093057739, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9930558093057739, "spot_peer_score": -5.5732149297921945, "spot_baseline_score": -25.153876699596427, "baseline_archived_score": 2.75759160796734, "peer_archived_score": -1.2876299638848585, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.5732149297921945, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.153876699596427 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719592114.414398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719592114.414398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5482602491090087, 0.4517397508909913 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)" }, { "id": 25701, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-openai-publish-information-describing-q-q-star-by-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:09.977173Z", "published_at": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.421356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25701, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:09.977173Z", "open_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:49.027895Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, by Sept 30, 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q* (or Q-Star) and publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q*.", "fine_print": "A description of Q* must state that it is a system or method that was or is currently being developed or explored by OpenAI and must provide some information about what Q* is (for example, giving an overview of how Q* works without delving into technical detail). A description of a system or method that was published before 2024 but is publicly acknowledged to be Q* before Sept 30, 2024 will resolve the question as Yes.\nA description does not need to contain any of the following:\nA statement that Q* has been used on or is an AI system that has finished training or that is functional.\nAn accompanying release of an AI system known as Q* or that has been trained using Q*.\nAny performance results.\nA paper describing it in detail.\nA public acknowledgement that the system or method described is Q* does not need to be made in the initial document describing the system or method, and can occur at a later time, including from public statements by OpenAI staff, including interviews, media appearances, or podcasts (this does not include statements made anonymously or on background). The question will resolve as Yes when all criteria are met. For example, if OpenAI publishes information about an AI system not named Q*, but in a later interview the OpenAI CEO states that the system is the previously rumored Q*, the question will resolve as Yes.\nThe system or method must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. If Microsoft or any other entity exercises its existing rights or purchases rights such that it announces such a system or method but without having legally acquired or merged with OpenAI it will not be sufficient.\nA description specifically of Q* must be provided, a description of a system or method characterized as a successor to Q* would not qualify.", "post_id": 25701, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719532586.587775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719532586.587775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.35954080989425674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719532586.654212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719532586.654212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7671920834619086, 0.23280791653809144 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy." }, { "id": 25700, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-us-offer-india-a-nuclear-submarine-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:09.846339Z", "published_at": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.601254Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T10:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25700, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:09.846339Z", "open_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T10:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T10:41:37.217919Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States makes a public formal agreement with India to build, design, lease, or sell a nuclear-powered submarine for the Indian Navy at any time between January 1, 2022 and Sept 30, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25700, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"" }, { "id": 25669, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) \n be higher Year-over-Year on July 2, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cboe-sp-500-3-month-volatility-index-vxvcls-be-higher-year-over-year-on-july-2-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:58:36.860915Z", "published_at": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.211884Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25669, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) \n be higher Year-over-Year on July 2, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:58:36.860915Z", "open_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:47:03.426785Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS. The reported number for July 2, 2024 must be greater than the reported number on July 2, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25669, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis" }, { "id": 25658, "title": "Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for July 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-real-time-sahm-rule-recession-indicator-increase-year-over-year-for-july-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-25T12:53:20.676585Z", "published_at": "2024-06-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.091345Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-25T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25658, "title": "Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for July 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-25T12:53:20.676585Z", "open_time": "2024-06-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:26.302995Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.\n\nThis indicator is based on \"real-time\" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME. The reported number in 2024 must be greater than the reported 2023 number.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25658, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.\n\nThis indicator is based on \"real-time\" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise." }, { "id": 25655, "title": "Will age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 people in the US go down 50% or more before 2051?", "short_title": "Will cancer mortality ↓ by 50% by 2051?", "url_title": "Will cancer mortality ↓ by 50% by 2051?", "slug": "will-cancer-mortality-by-50-by-2051", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-25T01:06:47.238385Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.116943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25655, "title": "Will age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 people in the US go down 50% or more before 2051?", "created_at": "2024-06-25T01:06:47.238385Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to statistics gathered from the [American Cancer Society](https://www.cancer.org/research/acs-research-news/facts-and-figures-2022.html) (ACS), cancer death rates fell 32% from their peak in the 28-year period from 1991 to 2019. According to the [CDC's data](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/topics/cancer-deaths.htm) in the past decade, age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 people in the US decreased from 173.5 in 2009 to 155.8 in 2016, and then decreased at a faster rate to 146.2 in 2019 for a total decrease of 16% in 10 years.\n\nThe ACS attributes the reduction in cancer deaths to such factors as decreased smoking, improved chemotherapy and other treatments, and more success with early screening of some cancers such as breast, prostate and colon cancers.\n\nFor cancer death rates to continue (or accelerate) their decline to 50% below today's levels before 2051, it will likely require multiple research breakthroughs in treatment and prevention. For example, there are potentials for advanced immunotherapies such as [allogenic CAR T-cell therapy](https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-cancerbio-062822-023316), in which a patient's own immune cells are modified to fight cancer. While current versions have limitations, researchers are working on [off-the-shelf](https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6694/15/3/663) versions that could become a lot less expensive for the medical system.\n\nOther potential game changers are inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy (see Metaculus question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/)) [cancer vaccines](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43018-022-00418-6), and [precision medicine](https://www.cancer.org/cancer/managing-cancer/treatment-types/precision-medicine.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if at any point before January 1, 2051, the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics [Cancer Deaths website](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/topics/cancer-deaths.htm) reports that the age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 population in the United States is less than or equal to 73.1, when accessed by Metaculus Admins. \n\nIf this number does not fall to this level or below before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "As of June 24, 2024, the most recent numbers shown at the resolution source was 146.2 per 100,000 in 2019, at the archived link [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20240622223541/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/topics/cancer-deaths.htm). Therefore, a reduction of 50% is 73.1 per 100,000. \n\nIf this question has not resolved as Yes before January 1, 2051, then Admins on January 1, 2051 will resolve this question based on the most recent data available at the resolution source (which would be No if the number is above 73.1 per 100,000). If the most recent year shown is a year occurring before 2050 (such as 2046 or 2047), this question will still resolve based on whatever that most-recent number is. \n\nAlthough a specific webpage is mentioned in the main resolution criteria, if this data is reported by a different government agency in future years, this question will resolve based on whichever agency is responsible for reporting this information at the time. \n\nAs explained [here](https://www.cdc.gov/united-states-cancer-statistics/technical-notes/incidence-death-rates.html#cdc_research_or_data_summary_res_data-crude-rates-and-age-adjusted-rates), the CDC does age adjusting as follows:\n\n>The age distribution of a population (the number of people in particular age groups) can change over time and can be different in different geographic areas. Age-adjusting the rates ensures that differences in incidence or deaths from one year to another, or between one geographic area and another, are not due to differences in the age distribution of the populations being compared.\n\nThis question assumes that this methodology continues. If this methodology ever changes so substantially that Metaculus Admins deem it inappropriate to continue as a resolution source for this question, then this question may be annulled.\n\nThis question may also be annulled if the CDC or any other US government agency ceases to publish this official data, and Admins deem that no comparable successor can be found.", "post_id": 25655, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746233274.823486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746233274.823486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.5478219748397517 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3870418077810194, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4337156834996016, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.0, 1.017876498136525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.4160730744622002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09635747331934613, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.03808445092208783, 0.8153249963609456 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286877.948122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286877.948122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5750358448676064, 0.4249641551323936 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to statistics gathered from the [American Cancer Society](https://www.cancer.org/research/acs-research-news/facts-and-figures-2022.html) (ACS), cancer death rates fell 32% from their peak in the 28-year period from 1991 to 2019. According to the [CDC's data](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/topics/cancer-deaths.htm) in the past decade, age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 people in the US decreased from 173.5 in 2009 to 155.8 in 2016, and then decreased at a faster rate to 146.2 in 2019 for a total decrease of 16% in 10 years.\n\nThe ACS attributes the reduction in cancer deaths to such factors as decreased smoking, improved chemotherapy and other treatments, and more success with early screening of some cancers such as breast, prostate and colon cancers.\n\nFor cancer death rates to continue (or accelerate) their decline to 50% below today's levels before 2051, it will likely require multiple research breakthroughs in treatment and prevention. For example, there are potentials for advanced immunotherapies such as [allogenic CAR T-cell therapy](https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-cancerbio-062822-023316), in which a patient's own immune cells are modified to fight cancer. While current versions have limitations, researchers are working on [off-the-shelf](https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6694/15/3/663) versions that could become a lot less expensive for the medical system.\n\nOther potential game changers are inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy (see Metaculus question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/)) [cancer vaccines](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43018-022-00418-6), and [precision medicine](https://www.cancer.org/cancer/managing-cancer/treatment-types/precision-medicine.html)." }, { "id": 25636, "title": "Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?", "short_title": "Allogeneic cell therapy FDA approved by 2035?", "url_title": "Allogeneic cell therapy FDA approved by 2035?", "slug": "allogeneic-cell-therapy-fda-approved-by-2035", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 109999, "username": "Robert_de_Neufville" } ], "created_at": "2024-06-24T03:47:13.617714Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-01T07:28:59.113555Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25636, "title": "Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?", "created_at": "2024-06-24T03:47:13.617714Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Universal allogenic cell therapies have the potential to be a real game changer in the struggle to reduce cancer mortality rates. According to [Allogeneic CAR T Cell Therapy for Cancer](https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-cancerbio-062822-023316) published by Annual Reviews: \n\n>Autologous chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy, produced from the patient's own T cells, has changed the treatment landscape for hematologic malignancies but has some drawbacks that prevent large-scale clinical application, including logistical complexities in supply, patient T cell health, treatment delays, and limited manufacturing slots. Allogeneic, or off-the-shelf, CAR T cell therapies have the potential to overcome many of the limitations of autologous therapies, with the aim of bringing benefit to all patients eligible for treatment. \n\nSince 2017, there have been 6 FDA-approved CAR-T therapies, and according to [Drug Discover Trends](https://www.drugdiscoverytrends.com/how-price-safety-and-efficacy-shape-the-cell-and-gene-therapy-landscape/), they have been \"life-altering,\" for example with hemophilia B:\n\n>For instance, Hemgenix, indicated for hemophilia B, reduces bleeding substantially and eliminates the need for ongoing therapy in most patients. Three years following treatment, 94% of patients did not need continuous prophylactic treatment, which involves regular infusions of clotting factor concentrates.\n\nUnfortunately, however, these treatments come with a high price tag: an [average cost](https://www.drugdiscoverytrends.com/how-price-safety-and-efficacy-shape-the-cell-and-gene-therapy-landscape/) of over $400,000 per infusion. So there are significant challenges that will need to be overcome.\n\nAccording to the article [CAR-T: What Is Next?](https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6694/15/3/663), to address this issue of access, but also to expand the types of cancers the therapy can target, the industry is moving toward developing \"off-the-shelf\" therapies: \n\n>Compared to autologous CAR-T cells, off-the-shelf CARs have numerous potential benefits. Firstly, healthy donors can be selected and used as a source of immune cells to generate them. This could lead to a better performance of CAR-T cells since the immune cells from healthy donors have not been impacted by cancer effects or by exposure to chemotherapeutic agents. Some clinical and preclinical research has shown that the efficacy of CAR therapy is affected by the quality and quantity of T cells retrieved from patients [66]. Furthermore, patients who have received chemotherapy before the infusion are more likely to have poor-quality T cells, as well as an insufficient numbers of them, than those who have not, and this could be related to poor CAR-T-cell activity and failing to harvest enough cells for CAR-T manufacturing [67]. Secondly, unlike the time-consuming process of producing personalized autologous CAR-T cells, large numbers of allogeneic CAR-T cells can be generated from a single donor, producing batches of preserved CAR-T products that can provide patients with immediate access to treatment.\n\nThis has significant potential to expand this revolutionary therapy so that it can start addressing solid tumors, which is a massive opportunity since 90% of cancers involve solid tumors. However, there are significant obstacles to overcome before getting to FDA approval. As the Annual Reviews article puts it:\n\n>While the potential benefits of off-the-shelf CAR T cell products are clear, some notable obstacles have to be overcome to make allogeneic cell therapy a reality for patients. Specifically, infusing CAR T cells produced from an unmatched donor could lead to graft versus host disease (GvHD), a potentially life-threatening condition (Sung & Chao 2013). Conversely, the host immune system can recognize the graft as foreign, triggering rejection and limiting the therapeutic effect.\n\nReferences\n\nChen, Y.-J.; Abila, B.; Mostafa Kamel, Y. CAR-T: What Is Next? Cancers 2023, 15, 663. https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers15030663\n\nJohnson Sasu, B.; Lauron, E. J.; Schulz, T.; Cheng, H.-Y.; Sommer, C. Allogeneic CAR T Cell Therapy for Cancer. Annu. Rev. Cancer Biol. 2024, 8, 227-243. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-cancerbio-062822-023316", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform for the treatment of cancer.\n\nIn order to count, the platform must be allogeneic, meaning it uses donor cells rather than patient-derived cells, and it must be off-the-shelf, meaning cell therapy products can be manufactured in batches rather than one product for each patient. The platform must also be universal, which means the allogeneic cell therapy is engineered to avoid immune rejection.\n\nIf this FDA approval does not occur before January 1, 2035, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Treatment of cancer\" means approved for use in any cancer indication.\n\nOnly full FDA approval will count. More limited approvals such as [expanded access](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) (also known as \"compassionate use\") will not count.", "post_id": 25636, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759303728.909746, "end_time": 1784900317.764, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759303728.909746, "end_time": 1784900317.764, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.36160121161939845 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8431287456062874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289378.6906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289378.6906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6551989528203945, 0.34480104717960547 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Universal allogenic cell therapies have the potential to be a real game changer in the struggle to reduce cancer mortality rates. According to [Allogeneic CAR T Cell Therapy for Cancer](https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-cancerbio-062822-023316) published by Annual Reviews: \n\n>Autologous chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy, produced from the patient's own T cells, has changed the treatment landscape for hematologic malignancies but has some drawbacks that prevent large-scale clinical application, including logistical complexities in supply, patient T cell health, treatment delays, and limited manufacturing slots. Allogeneic, or off-the-shelf, CAR T cell therapies have the potential to overcome many of the limitations of autologous therapies, with the aim of bringing benefit to all patients eligible for treatment. \n\nSince 2017, there have been 6 FDA-approved CAR-T therapies, and according to [Drug Discover Trends](https://www.drugdiscoverytrends.com/how-price-safety-and-efficacy-shape-the-cell-and-gene-therapy-landscape/), they have been \"life-altering,\" for example with hemophilia B:\n\n>For instance, Hemgenix, indicated for hemophilia B, reduces bleeding substantially and eliminates the need for ongoing therapy in most patients. Three years following treatment, 94% of patients did not need continuous prophylactic treatment, which involves regular infusions of clotting factor concentrates.\n\nUnfortunately, however, these treatments come with a high price tag: an [average cost](https://www.drugdiscoverytrends.com/how-price-safety-and-efficacy-shape-the-cell-and-gene-therapy-landscape/) of over $400,000 per infusion. So there are significant challenges that will need to be overcome.\n\nAccording to the article [CAR-T: What Is Next?](https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6694/15/3/663), to address this issue of access, but also to expand the types of cancers the therapy can target, the industry is moving toward developing \"off-the-shelf\" therapies: \n\n>Compared to autologous CAR-T cells, off-the-shelf CARs have numerous potential benefits. Firstly, healthy donors can be selected and used as a source of immune cells to generate them. This could lead to a better performance of CAR-T cells since the immune cells from healthy donors have not been impacted by cancer effects or by exposure to chemotherapeutic agents. Some clinical and preclinical research has shown that the efficacy of CAR therapy is affected by the quality and quantity of T cells retrieved from patients [66]. Furthermore, patients who have received chemotherapy before the infusion are more likely to have poor-quality T cells, as well as an insufficient numbers of them, than those who have not, and this could be related to poor CAR-T-cell activity and failing to harvest enough cells for CAR-T manufacturing [67]. Secondly, unlike the time-consuming process of producing personalized autologous CAR-T cells, large numbers of allogeneic CAR-T cells can be generated from a single donor, producing batches of preserved CAR-T products that can provide patients with immediate access to treatment.\n\nThis has significant potential to expand this revolutionary therapy so that it can start addressing solid tumors, which is a massive opportunity since 90% of cancers involve solid tumors. However, there are significant obstacles to overcome before getting to FDA approval. As the Annual Reviews article puts it:\n\n>While the potential benefits of off-the-shelf CAR T cell products are clear, some notable obstacles have to be overcome to make allogeneic cell therapy a reality for patients. Specifically, infusing CAR T cells produced from an unmatched donor could lead to graft versus host disease (GvHD), a potentially life-threatening condition (Sung & Chao 2013). Conversely, the host immune system can recognize the graft as foreign, triggering rejection and limiting the therapeutic effect.\n\nReferences\n\nChen, Y.-J.; Abila, B.; Mostafa Kamel, Y. CAR-T: What Is Next? Cancers 2023, 15, 663. https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers15030663\n\nJohnson Sasu, B.; Lauron, E. J.; Schulz, T.; Cheng, H.-Y.; Sommer, C. Allogeneic CAR T Cell Therapy for Cancer. Annu. Rev. Cancer Biol. 2024, 8, 227-243. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-cancerbio-062822-023316" }, { "id": 25598, "title": "Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?", "short_title": "0.5Gt CO2 removed by rock weathering by 2040?", "url_title": "0.5Gt CO2 removed by rock weathering by 2040?", "slug": "05gt-co2-removed-by-rock-weathering-by-2040", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-22T21:18:50.382475Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.027575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-06-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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"Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25598, "title": "Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?", "created_at": "2024-06-22T21:18:50.382475Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-06-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Through natural processes, rocks [currently absorb](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa9c4) about 1.1 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 per year, by reacting with CO2 in the air and converting into solid carbonates, where most of it ends up eventually being permanently stored as bicarbonate in the oceans. \n\nCurrently, humans emit about 37 Gt of CO2 from fossil fuels, according to data collected by [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions). So the amount that's naturally sequestered by rocks is only a small percentage of overall global carbon emissions, and there have been proposals for [enhanced rock weathering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_weathering) to speed up the process, with the potential for up to 2 Gt of CO2 to be removed each year, according to [one study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2448-9). \n\nOne such method of enhanced rock weathering involves crushing a mineral-rich rock such as [basalt](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/can-enhanced-rock-weathering-weather-greater-scrutiny-solution-climate-change-2023-11-01/) or [olivine](https://eioncarbon.com/) and spreading the powder into fields or other areas it can be put to efficient use, reacting with CO2 to form solid carbonates. The physics of this are similar to granulated sugar compared with sugar cubes -- with the granulated sugar dissolving faster in water do to having higher surface area compared with volume. The process works similarly with CO2-absorbing rocks, where, as the Head of Science of InPlanet, a start-up working on the issue, [puts it](https://inplanet.earth/resource/what-is-enhanced-rock-weathering/):\n\n>It is a natural process, and instead of happening over hundreds of thousands to millions of years, we speed it up to happen in less than a decade. And we do this by taking rock from the earth, crushing it, grinding it to small particle size, and then spreading it on farmland, where this process will happen much more quickly.\n\nAnother method is to use additives on rocks to speed up their chemical reactions, especially if it can be done on a large scale, at a low cost per unit. Please see the related Metaculus question, [Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25595/will-cheap-bio-additive--rock-weathering-30/)\n\nSee Also\n\n- Scientific Reports: [The environmental controls on effciency of enhanced rock weathering in soils](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-36113-4)\n\n- Environmental Science and Pollution Research: [A state of the art of review on factors affecting the enhanced weathering in agricultural soil: strategies for carbon sequestration and climate mitigation](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11356-024-32498-5)\n\n- Biology Letters: [Climate change mitigation: potential benefits and pitfalls of enhanced rock weathering in tropical agriculture](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0715)\n\n- Earth's Future: [Impact of Climate on the Global Capacity for Enhanced Rock Weathering on Croplands](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF003698)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2040, there are at least 0.5 gigatons (GT) of CO2 being removed from the atmosphere annually, using enhanced rock weathering processes. \n\nResolution will be based on consensus reporting by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as peer-reviewed scientific publications, government data, industry reports, reputable international organizations, and reputable research institutions. \n\nIf Metaculus Admins determine that this amount of annual CO2 removal from enhanced rock weathering has not occurred before January 1, 2040, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Enhanced rock weathering\" is [defined](https://www.american.edu/sis/centers/carbon-removal/fact-sheet-enhanced-mineralization.cfm) as any artificial process to speed up the natural weathering of rocks, in order to accelerate natural removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. \n\nThe CO2 removal that counts must be the portion attributable to enhanced rock weathering processes, beyond the CO2 removal already done by natural weathering.\n\nIn case of 2039 data not being available from credible sources in a timely manner, resolution (currently scheduled for June 30, 2040) may wait until it is. If there is no credible reporting before January 1, 2043, that there has been at least 0.5 Gt of CO2 removed annually from the atmosphere using enhanced rock weathering before 2040, this question will resolve as No.", "post_id": 25598, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750635758.798269, "end_time": 1799521778.602, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750635758.798269, "end_time": 1799521778.602, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.17812657818366479 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.7653423179917583, 1.0, 0.23920466187086184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.5478273995252975, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287365.340351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287365.340351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9416903692928533, 0.05830963070714667 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Through natural processes, rocks [currently absorb](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa9c4) about 1.1 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 per year, by reacting with CO2 in the air and converting into solid carbonates, where most of it ends up eventually being permanently stored as bicarbonate in the oceans. \n\nCurrently, humans emit about 37 Gt of CO2 from fossil fuels, according to data collected by [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions). So the amount that's naturally sequestered by rocks is only a small percentage of overall global carbon emissions, and there have been proposals for [enhanced rock weathering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_weathering) to speed up the process, with the potential for up to 2 Gt of CO2 to be removed each year, according to [one study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2448-9). \n\nOne such method of enhanced rock weathering involves crushing a mineral-rich rock such as [basalt](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/can-enhanced-rock-weathering-weather-greater-scrutiny-solution-climate-change-2023-11-01/) or [olivine](https://eioncarbon.com/) and spreading the powder into fields or other areas it can be put to efficient use, reacting with CO2 to form solid carbonates. The physics of this are similar to granulated sugar compared with sugar cubes -- with the granulated sugar dissolving faster in water do to having higher surface area compared with volume. The process works similarly with CO2-absorbing rocks, where, as the Head of Science of InPlanet, a start-up working on the issue, [puts it](https://inplanet.earth/resource/what-is-enhanced-rock-weathering/):\n\n>It is a natural process, and instead of happening over hundreds of thousands to millions of years, we speed it up to happen in less than a decade. And we do this by taking rock from the earth, crushing it, grinding it to small particle size, and then spreading it on farmland, where this process will happen much more quickly.\n\nAnother method is to use additives on rocks to speed up their chemical reactions, especially if it can be done on a large scale, at a low cost per unit. Please see the related Metaculus question, [Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25595/will-cheap-bio-additive--rock-weathering-30/)\n\nSee Also\n\n- Scientific Reports: [The environmental controls on effciency of enhanced rock weathering in soils](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-36113-4)\n\n- Environmental Science and Pollution Research: [A state of the art of review on factors affecting the enhanced weathering in agricultural soil: strategies for carbon sequestration and climate mitigation](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11356-024-32498-5)\n\n- Biology Letters: [Climate change mitigation: potential benefits and pitfalls of enhanced rock weathering in tropical agriculture](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0715)\n\n- Earth's Future: [Impact of Climate on the Global Capacity for Enhanced Rock Weathering on Croplands](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF003698)" }, { "id": 25595, "title": "Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?", "short_title": "Cheap bio additive ↑ rock weathering 30%?", "url_title": "Cheap bio additive ↑ rock weathering 30%?", "slug": "cheap-bio-additive-rock-weathering-30", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-22T01:11:52.616755Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.148369Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25595, "title": "Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?", "created_at": "2024-06-22T01:11:52.616755Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mafic or ultramafic rocks [absorb](https://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2393) carbon dioxide from the air and are [considered](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4274163) one of the safest forms of long-term CO2 storage, since it converts CO2 into solid, stable minerals. \n\nThis is a long, slow process in nature (on the scale of millions of years), but accelerating this process through [enhanced rock weathering](https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/enhanced-rock-weathering) has been proposed as a potential game changer in the fight against global warming. A cheap bio additive for enhancing rock weathering would speed up the chemical reactions. If done at scale, within a few decades this could enable up to hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere each year via enhanced weathering of mafic rocks, much of which could be done on-site at quarries. From a forecasting standpoint, it is important to note that several key technological advancements are necessary to get to the point of being able to accelerate the weathering rates, especially at this low cost.\n\nSee Also\n\nChemical Geology: [Engineered carbon mineralization in ultramafic rocks for CO2 removal from air: Review and new insights](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0009254120301674)\n\nRemineralize the Earth: [Crash Course on Enhanced Rock Weathering for Carbon Removal](https://www.remineralize.org/2023/01/crash-course-on-enhanced-rock-weathering-for-carbon-removal/)\n\nNIH: [Carbon Mineralization of CO2](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK541437/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a biochemical additive to accelerate the weathering of mafic rocks is commercially available and meets the following conditions:\n\n1. Costs $20 (or less) per ton of rock, in 2024 dollars (so will be adjusted for inflation after 2024).\n2. Accelerates the weathering rate of mafic rocks by ≥ 30% compared with untreated rocks.\n\nResolution will be based on reporting by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as scientific publications, vendor listings, news articles, trade journals, commercial announcements, etc.\n\nIf Metaculus Admins can find no such biochemical additive meeting these criteria to be available before January 1, 2030, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Commercially available\" means able to be purchased in sufficient quantity to treat a minimum of 1,000 tons of rock, by businesses, organizations, or persons intending to use the biochemical additive to accelerate the weathering of mafic rocks. Please note that this primarily refers to commercial or industrial purchasers not end-use consumers, although the latter would also qualify.\n\n\"Mafic rock\" is defined using the [Wikipedia definition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafic) as of June 2024: \"a silicate mineral or igneous rock rich in magnesium and iron.\" \n\nThe ≥ 30% accelerated weathering rate refers to the process of carbon mineralization [described by](https://www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/making-minerals-how-growing-rocks-can-help-reduce-carbon-emissions) the US Geological Survey, \"Carbon mineralization is the process by which carbon dioxide becomes a solid mineral, such as a carbonate. It is a chemical reaction that happens when certain rocks are exposed to carbon dioxide.\" \n\nThe cost figure of ≤ $20 per ton of rock refers solely to the purchase price of the biochemical additive, not to other expenses incurred by the purchaser.\n\nIf the cost of ≤ $20 per ton of rock is achieved through bulk pricing, that will count.\n\nIn order to avoid ambiguous outcomes, the ≥ 30% accelerated weathering rate threshold can be met in field observations or laboratory conditions, and it can be over any tested time period.\n\nPlease note that as stated in the resolution criteria, this question is specifically about biochemical additives. Therefore, petrochemicals and other chemicals derived from fossil fuels do not count.", "post_id": 25595, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762926972.886777, "end_time": 1766769836.663237, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762926972.886777, "end_time": 1766769836.663237, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.07025462772709329 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6894939914020581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289563.378246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289563.378246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9703997141994035, 0.029600285800596458 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mafic or ultramafic rocks [absorb](https://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2393) carbon dioxide from the air and are [considered](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4274163) one of the safest forms of long-term CO2 storage, since it converts CO2 into solid, stable minerals. \n\nThis is a long, slow process in nature (on the scale of millions of years), but accelerating this process through [enhanced rock weathering](https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/enhanced-rock-weathering) has been proposed as a potential game changer in the fight against global warming. A cheap bio additive for enhancing rock weathering would speed up the chemical reactions. If done at scale, within a few decades this could enable up to hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere each year via enhanced weathering of mafic rocks, much of which could be done on-site at quarries. From a forecasting standpoint, it is important to note that several key technological advancements are necessary to get to the point of being able to accelerate the weathering rates, especially at this low cost.\n\nSee Also\n\nChemical Geology: [Engineered carbon mineralization in ultramafic rocks for CO2 removal from air: Review and new insights](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0009254120301674)\n\nRemineralize the Earth: [Crash Course on Enhanced Rock Weathering for Carbon Removal](https://www.remineralize.org/2023/01/crash-course-on-enhanced-rock-weathering-for-carbon-removal/)\n\nNIH: [Carbon Mineralization of CO2](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK541437/)" }, { "id": 25586, "title": "Will there be an open-source repository of tools for alternative protein production before 2030?", "short_title": "2030: open-source repo for alt-protein?", "url_title": "2030: open-source repo for alt-protein?", "slug": "2030-open-source-repo-for-alt-protein", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-21T16:51:19.578423Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.049451Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, 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third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 25586, "title": "Will there be an open-source repository of tools for alternative protein production before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-06-21T16:51:19.578423Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Alternative protein sources, that don't rely on traditional factory farming methods, are currently [projected](https://www.feedandadditive.com/global-alternative-proteins-market/) to grow by 12% annually in the period 2022-2032.\n\nWhile there are many factors that could limit even greater growth in this space, one area could be a lack of open source technology enabling rapid innovation. Compared to other scientific fields which have well-funded academic research areas, food science has relatively few open source data and tools. As a result, start-ups in the alternative protein space often have to take on both basic research and development of alternative proteins, which increases the timelines and investment needed to bring new products to market. For example, Impossible Foods, which produces a plant-based burger, [raised over $2 billion](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/impossible-foods/__BPXOmdjGDEI5Ot3ImXm-Gm9dTyu6Y48quOGr8ATLadA) since its founding in 2011. \n\nA repository dedicated to open source tools in the food space could allow companies to more rapidly develop new technologies related to alternative protein. This source could include:\n\n* biological materials for major food and ingredient sources,\n* protocols and assays relevant to desirable food flavor and textures,\n* genetic and molecular tools for protein or cell-line design.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before 2030, a free, open-source repository of gene modules, assay and molecular biology technologies, and physical materials is available and easily accessible, containing at least 100 different items related to alternative protein production.", "fine_print": "* \"At least 100 different items\" will be taken to mean at least 100 separate files or tools each providing a means for someone using the repository to independently use the file or tool to identify a gene module, complete an assay, reproduce a physical material, or complete some other molecular biology operation.\n* \"Related to alternative protein production\" will be taken to mean that the tools are intended for the purpose of creating or studying meat alternatives or meat substitutes. Generic open-source packages of tools which happen to be useful for alternative protein production will not be sufficient.", "post_id": 25586, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755948483.730638, "end_time": 1766772285.453341, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755948483.730638, "end_time": 1766772285.453341, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.46241028098522236 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.360644056529686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288092.9187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288092.9187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6599239695687474, 0.34007603043125256 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Alternative protein sources, that don't rely on traditional factory farming methods, are currently [projected](https://www.feedandadditive.com/global-alternative-proteins-market/) to grow by 12% annually in the period 2022-2032.\n\nWhile there are many factors that could limit even greater growth in this space, one area could be a lack of open source technology enabling rapid innovation. Compared to other scientific fields which have well-funded academic research areas, food science has relatively few open source data and tools. As a result, start-ups in the alternative protein space often have to take on both basic research and development of alternative proteins, which increases the timelines and investment needed to bring new products to market. For example, Impossible Foods, which produces a plant-based burger, [raised over $2 billion](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/impossible-foods/__BPXOmdjGDEI5Ot3ImXm-Gm9dTyu6Y48quOGr8ATLadA) since its founding in 2011. \n\nA repository dedicated to open source tools in the food space could allow companies to more rapidly develop new technologies related to alternative protein. This source could include:\n\n* biological materials for major food and ingredient sources,\n* protocols and assays relevant to desirable food flavor and textures,\n* genetic and molecular tools for protein or cell-line design." }, { "id": 25585, "title": "Will alternative protein have a market share above 25% of that of meat before 2035?", "short_title": "2035: alternative protein market share >25%?", "url_title": "2035: alternative protein market share >25%?", "slug": "2035-alternative-protein-market-share-25", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-21T16:36:59.461953Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T06:30:10.634315Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-06-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-06-30T12:00:00Z", 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"synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Livestock is a major driver of global warming, and the meat industry is responsible for significant animal suffering. As such, alternatives can have a lot of impact, provided they can overcome cultural, culinary, and taste-based challenges while being provided at cost-parity with traditional meat.\n\nAmong the sources included in the label \"alternative protein\" are plants, microbes, cultured cells, and insects. [Data](https://www.feedandadditive.com/global-alternative-proteins-market/) are currently not very precise, but an estimate of a $17.6 billion market volume in 2002 corresponds to 6.2% of the [worldwide meat market](https://www.researchdive.com/8583/meat-products-market)'s $284.3bn.\n\nWill this market share quadruple and surpass 25% before 2035?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the best estimate of the alternative protein market in any calendar year before 2035 is greater than 25% of that of meat in general.", "fine_print": "Resolution will follow whatever definition the available sources use for \"alternative protein\"; if precise data are available, preference should be given to a definition that includes:\n\n* any protein that is treated as meat in a culinary sense (e.g. plant-based burger patties count),\n* comes from a source other than animals obtained through traditional means like hunting, fishing and farming, and\n* does not include plant based foods that are not intended as meat substitutes (like a bowl of lentils or a salad)\n\nThe 25% market share should be measured across meat products and as a share of all or most meat production, it is not sufficient if alternative protein exceeds a 25% market share in some narrow portion of meat production, such as pork only.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the required market share has not been reached when relevant estimates referring to the year 2034 are available.", "post_id": 25585, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760941800.112801, "end_time": 1765889695.906831, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760941800.112801, "end_time": 1765889695.906831, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04971409665858852 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289599.998869, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289599.998869, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9924021528078295, 0.007597847192170536 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Livestock is a major driver of global warming, and the meat industry is responsible for significant animal suffering. As such, alternatives can have a lot of impact, provided they can overcome cultural, culinary, and taste-based challenges while being provided at cost-parity with traditional meat.\n\nAmong the sources included in the label \"alternative protein\" are plants, microbes, cultured cells, and insects. [Data](https://www.feedandadditive.com/global-alternative-proteins-market/) are currently not very precise, but an estimate of a $17.6 billion market volume in 2002 corresponds to 6.2% of the [worldwide meat market](https://www.researchdive.com/8583/meat-products-market)'s $284.3bn.\n\nWill this market share quadruple and surpass 25% before 2035?" }, { "id": 25578, "title": "By 2030, will there be a synthetic protein fiber costing less than nylon?", "short_title": "2030: Synth protein fiber cheaper than nylon?", "url_title": "2030: Synth protein fiber cheaper than nylon?", "slug": "2030-synth-protein-fiber-cheaper-than-nylon", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-21T15:04:22.015022Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.779610Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25578, "title": "By 2030, will there be a synthetic protein fiber costing less than nylon?", "created_at": "2024-06-21T15:04:22.015022Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-07-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are several sources used nowadays for spinning yarn to make clothes and other textile products.\n\nOne source is natural protein fibers such as cotton, wool and silk. Another is synthetic fibers; some of these are called semi-synthetic, as they are produced from plant-based cellulose, like wood pulp. Examples include rayon and viscose. Then there are fully synthetic fibers, usually made from fossil fuels by polymerization of certain petrochemicals, among which are nylon and polyester.\n\nOne emerging area of research is to use synthetic biology processes to produce protein fibers. Possible pathways include cultured cells, genetically-modified organisms and protein design.\n\nWe want to forecast when one such fiber will be available for cheaper than a widely-available commodity synthetic fiber, using nylon as the reference. Although polyester is the most produced fiber, we have chosen nylon because it is 30 times more expensive per unit, higher quality than polyester, and thus more vulnerable to potential economic disruption from synbio, which makes it a more achievable goal for the industry. \n\nMultiple companies are currently working on this. Lululemon for example has recently [partnered](https://www.genomatica.com/nylon/) with Genomatica to develop a plant-based nylon to replace some of the petroleum-based nylon in [some](https://www.retaildive.com/news/lululemon-geno-plant-based-nylon-shirts/648222/) of its apparel. For more information and context please see the following report from the Boston Consulting Group: [Synthetic Biology Is About to Disrupt Your Industry](https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/synthetic-biology-is-about-to-disrupt-your-industry)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2030, there is a synthetic protein fiber available for open market purchase at a price cheaper than nylon.", "fine_print": "* The precise method used to make these fibers is not a factor in resolving the question, as long as they do not come from traditional processes like shearing sheep or polymerizing petrochemicals, and can reasonably be described as \"synthetic biology\".\n* What counts is the publicly quoted price of the respective fibers at a United States port on a free-on-board (FOB) basis. If the available source says only \"North America\" and/or does not specify the basis as FOB vs CIF, that is still acceptable.\n* For nylon, since there does not seem to be a clearly better source, the price used will be taken from anything similar to [this one](https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/pa6-price-index/); PA6 will be the specific form of nylon used as reference.\n* Prices for the synthetic fiber that can only be obtained by directly contacting the manufacturer do not count, as that goes above the 15-minute resolution work [guideline](https://www.metaculus.com/question-writing/#r-conditions); also, that is possibly subject to manipulation.\n* The price must be for an order of 10 metric tons of the respective fiber to be spun into any kind of yarn (does not mean the same kind for both fibers, as there are substitution effects).\n* Thinking in terms of efficiency - how much of the gross weight delivered to the customer they can actually use in their manufacturing - if there is a substantial difference in efficiency between nylon and the synthetic protein fiber, either the gross or net weight can be used, but it needs to be the same for both. If no mention of this is found when resolving the question, the efficiency will be assumed to be roughly the same or not meaningful in the context.\n\nFor reference, in 2022 there were 10.2 million metric tons of nylon produced globally. The source mentioned above lists a price of $2.32/kg.", "post_id": 25578, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755739500.121426, "end_time": 1765195190.329608, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755739500.121426, "end_time": 1765195190.329608, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.02673313016692595 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.5530210864100233, 0.0, 1.6782927272926602, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287291.268891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287291.268891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9851877224144219, 0.014812277585578074 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are several sources used nowadays for spinning yarn to make clothes and other textile products.\n\nOne source is natural protein fibers such as cotton, wool and silk. Another is synthetic fibers; some of these are called semi-synthetic, as they are produced from plant-based cellulose, like wood pulp. Examples include rayon and viscose. Then there are fully synthetic fibers, usually made from fossil fuels by polymerization of certain petrochemicals, among which are nylon and polyester.\n\nOne emerging area of research is to use synthetic biology processes to produce protein fibers. Possible pathways include cultured cells, genetically-modified organisms and protein design.\n\nWe want to forecast when one such fiber will be available for cheaper than a widely-available commodity synthetic fiber, using nylon as the reference. Although polyester is the most produced fiber, we have chosen nylon because it is 30 times more expensive per unit, higher quality than polyester, and thus more vulnerable to potential economic disruption from synbio, which makes it a more achievable goal for the industry. \n\nMultiple companies are currently working on this. Lululemon for example has recently [partnered](https://www.genomatica.com/nylon/) with Genomatica to develop a plant-based nylon to replace some of the petroleum-based nylon in [some](https://www.retaildive.com/news/lululemon-geno-plant-based-nylon-shirts/648222/) of its apparel. For more information and context please see the following report from the Boston Consulting Group: [Synthetic Biology Is About to Disrupt Your Industry](https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/synthetic-biology-is-about-to-disrupt-your-industry)" }, { "id": 25572, "title": "Will chemicals produced from biomass achieve price parity with these three petrochemical equivalents before 2050?", "short_title": "Bio-gas-fermented chems = petrochem price?", "url_title": "Bio-gas-fermented chems = petrochem price?", "slug": "bio-gas-fermented-chems-petrochem-price", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-21T11:02:11.921701Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.856436Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25572, "title": "Will chemicals produced from biomass achieve price parity with these three petrochemical equivalents before 2050?", "created_at": "2024-06-21T11:02:11.921701Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held the *Scale Is All You Need* conference, bringing together a few dozen of the world's top synthetic top synthetic biology experts, entrepreneurs, and innovators in an intensive 2-day conference with Metaculus staff and forecasters in order to hash out a set of highest-impact innovation goals that would help the industry achieve its top objectives. \n\nThe group examining clean chemicals started with the IPCC goal of [net neutral carbon emissions](https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/) by 2050. The biggest bottleneck when it comes to replacing petroleum-derived products globally is the issue of petroleum based products being cheaper than bio based. In order to operationalize the question of whether such a price parity might be achieved, Metaculus has honed in on three specific chemicals:\n\n- Ethylene - Called the the \"[World’s Most Important Chemical](https://www.afpm.org/newsroom/blog/ethylene-worlds-most-important-chemical)\" by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers trade association, ethylene is a key building block for plastics, polyester, vinyl, PVC, synthetic rubber, and foam insulation.\n- Propylene - One of the [oldest](https://www.cpchem.com/what-we-do/solutions/olefins/products/propylene-refinery-grade-p-p-mix) petrochemicals, propylene is [considered](https://phys.org/news/2022-09-carbon-neutralizing-propylene-production-catalyzes-petrochemical.html) to be the second most important starting product in petrochemical engineering after ethylene. It is [used](https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/propylene-price-index/) in a wide variety of applications, such as plastics, fibers and refrigerants.\n- Succinic Acid - After some initial promise particularly with the [high oil prices](https://archive.ph/ie5UT#selection-2427.6-2430.0) of the 2000s, bio-succinic acid startups have [failed](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026387622200048X), although some new processes may hold promise to be cheaper than petroleum-based succinic acid. \n\nThere are multiple pathways to achieving this price parity. One is a carbon tax. Please see relevant Metaculus questions [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22561/50-of-world-gdp-carbon-pricing-enforcement/) and [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7877/date-us-passes-national-carbon-pricing-bill/) getting at this issue. The higher the upstream price of oil, the more feasibly price parity can be achieved. \n\nOther ways price parity might be achieved are through cheaper and newer pathways to build new molecules, as well as novel processes in biomanufacturing. So as an example, one way this could happen is for significant advances to be made in gasified lignocellulosic biomass, in order to boost availability of feedstock into new areas. Please see related Metaculus question: [Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25565/biomass-gasification-hits-500m-tons-by-2050/) And then of course, price parity with petrochemicals might happen naturally over time through the standard blocking and tackling of these businesses over time, mostly from the creation of increased economies of scale lowering production cost per unit, compared with the more static nature of petrochemical competitors. \n\nSee Also\n\n[International Energy Agency (IEA) 2020 report on bio-based chemicals (PDF)](https://www.ieabioenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Bio-based-chemicals-a-2020-update-final-200213.pdf)\n\n[Biomass processing technologies for bioenergy production: factors for future global market](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13762-023-05211-1)\n\n[Unpacking bio-based alternatives to ethylene production in Brazil, Europe, and the United States: A comparative life cycle assessment](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652623035345)\n\nIEA: [The Future of Petrochemicals: Towards more sustainable plastics and fertilisers (PDF)](https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/bee4ef3a-8876-4566-98cf-7a130c013805/The_Future_of_Petrochemicals.pdf)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point before January 1, 2050, the prices of all of the following chemicals produced from biomass have simultaneously reached price parity or better, compared with their petrochemical equivalents:\n\n1. Ethylene.\n2. Propylene.\n3. Succinic Acid.\n\nPrice parity is defined as each biomass-produced chemical being priced per unit at the commercial or industrial level at no more than 2% above its petrochemical equivalent, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as government data, industry or market reports, or economic studies. \n\nIf after December 31, 2049, Metaculus Admins determine that there is not sufficient evidence that price parity has been achieved for all three specified chemicals simultaneously, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Due to potential for ambiguity, this question will only consider price of equivalent chemicals and will not look at factors such as quality, performance, or environmental impact.", "post_id": 25572, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750126888.565509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750126888.565509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.455001959566808 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4037828112710855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 1.5176266504557887, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288892.251944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288892.251944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7973504242684022, 0.2026495757315978 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held the *Scale Is All You Need* conference, bringing together a few dozen of the world's top synthetic top synthetic biology experts, entrepreneurs, and innovators in an intensive 2-day conference with Metaculus staff and forecasters in order to hash out a set of highest-impact innovation goals that would help the industry achieve its top objectives. \n\nThe group examining clean chemicals started with the IPCC goal of [net neutral carbon emissions](https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/) by 2050. The biggest bottleneck when it comes to replacing petroleum-derived products globally is the issue of petroleum based products being cheaper than bio based. In order to operationalize the question of whether such a price parity might be achieved, Metaculus has honed in on three specific chemicals:\n\n- Ethylene - Called the the \"[World’s Most Important Chemical](https://www.afpm.org/newsroom/blog/ethylene-worlds-most-important-chemical)\" by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers trade association, ethylene is a key building block for plastics, polyester, vinyl, PVC, synthetic rubber, and foam insulation.\n- Propylene - One of the [oldest](https://www.cpchem.com/what-we-do/solutions/olefins/products/propylene-refinery-grade-p-p-mix) petrochemicals, propylene is [considered](https://phys.org/news/2022-09-carbon-neutralizing-propylene-production-catalyzes-petrochemical.html) to be the second most important starting product in petrochemical engineering after ethylene. It is [used](https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/propylene-price-index/) in a wide variety of applications, such as plastics, fibers and refrigerants.\n- Succinic Acid - After some initial promise particularly with the [high oil prices](https://archive.ph/ie5UT#selection-2427.6-2430.0) of the 2000s, bio-succinic acid startups have [failed](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026387622200048X), although some new processes may hold promise to be cheaper than petroleum-based succinic acid. \n\nThere are multiple pathways to achieving this price parity. One is a carbon tax. Please see relevant Metaculus questions [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22561/50-of-world-gdp-carbon-pricing-enforcement/) and [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7877/date-us-passes-national-carbon-pricing-bill/) getting at this issue. The higher the upstream price of oil, the more feasibly price parity can be achieved. \n\nOther ways price parity might be achieved are through cheaper and newer pathways to build new molecules, as well as novel processes in biomanufacturing. So as an example, one way this could happen is for significant advances to be made in gasified lignocellulosic biomass, in order to boost availability of feedstock into new areas. Please see related Metaculus question: [Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25565/biomass-gasification-hits-500m-tons-by-2050/) And then of course, price parity with petrochemicals might happen naturally over time through the standard blocking and tackling of these businesses over time, mostly from the creation of increased economies of scale lowering production cost per unit, compared with the more static nature of petrochemical competitors. \n\nSee Also\n\n[International Energy Agency (IEA) 2020 report on bio-based chemicals (PDF)](https://www.ieabioenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Bio-based-chemicals-a-2020-update-final-200213.pdf)\n\n[Biomass processing technologies for bioenergy production: factors for future global market](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13762-023-05211-1)\n\n[Unpacking bio-based alternatives to ethylene production in Brazil, Europe, and the United States: A comparative life cycle assessment](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652623035345)\n\nIEA: [The Future of Petrochemicals: Towards more sustainable plastics and fertilisers (PDF)](https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/bee4ef3a-8876-4566-98cf-7a130c013805/The_Future_of_Petrochemicals.pdf)" } ] }
