Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2960
{ "count": 5974, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2980", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2940", "results": [ { "id": 19948, "title": "Will No Labels officially announce a presidential candidate before 2024?", "short_title": "No Labels Candidate Before 2024?", "url_title": "No Labels Candidate Before 2024?", "slug": "no-labels-candidate-before-2024", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-15T21:50:01.192660Z", "published_at": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.490189Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-21T15:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-21T15:20:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19948, "title": "Will No Labels officially announce a presidential candidate before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-15T21:50:01.192660Z", "open_time": "2023-11-20T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-23T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-23T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-21T15:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-21T15:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-21T15:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As per Wikipedia: \"No Labels is an American political organization whose stated mission is to support centrism and bipartisanship through what it calls the 'commonsense majority'... In 2021, its strategy shifted toward running a third-party 2024 'unity' presidential ticket.\"\n\nWith Joe Manchin deciding not to seek reelection in the Senate and his recent [response](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/sen-joe-manchin-says-absolutely-consider-presidential-run-rcna125368) that he \"absolutely\" would consider a presidential run, [some pundits](https://thedispatch.com/article/manchins-moment-for-a-no-labels-relabel/) wonder whether Manchin will decide to run for president as a No Labels party candidate.\n\nThis question asks if [No Labels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Labels) will announce a candidate (whether it be Manchin or someone else) before January 1st, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if No Labels announces via its [website](https://www.nolabels.org/) before January 1st, 2024 an individual who will run for the 2024 presidential election as the official No Labels candidate. This question will also resolve as **Yes** if credible news sources report that No Labels has announced a candidate (even if this is not on the No Labels website).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19948, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700577260.611894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700577260.611894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.16982930026608972 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.441563953841307, 1.2357187500743676, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 1.4032615931380064, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5263291990775116, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0972723887118385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3398061860613764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700577260.637375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700577260.637375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9697284215755015, 0.030271578424498406 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As per Wikipedia: \"No Labels is an American political organization whose stated mission is to support centrism and bipartisanship through what it calls the 'commonsense majority'... In 2021, its strategy shifted toward running a third-party 2024 'unity' presidential ticket.\"\n\nWith Joe Manchin deciding not to seek reelection in the Senate and his recent [response](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/sen-joe-manchin-says-absolutely-consider-presidential-run-rcna125368) that he \"absolutely\" would consider a presidential run, [some pundits](https://thedispatch.com/article/manchins-moment-for-a-no-labels-relabel/) wonder whether Manchin will decide to run for president as a No Labels party candidate.\n\nThis question asks if [No Labels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_Labels) will announce a candidate (whether it be Manchin or someone else) before January 1st, 2024." }, { "id": 19942, "title": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?", "short_title": "TikTok US sold by 2025", "url_title": "TikTok US sold by 2025", "slug": "tiktok-us-sold-by-2025", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112062, "username": "dschwarz" }, { "id": 135221, "username": "TheGrassGuy" } ], "created_at": "2023-11-15T10:00:10.337908Z", "published_at": "2023-12-12T21:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.613755Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-12T21:19:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:49:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-12T21:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19942, "title": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-11-15T10:00:10.337908Z", "open_time": "2023-12-12T21:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-15T21:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-15T21:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T07:51:09.333939Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/) As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that TikTok US will be (or has been) sold to a US company, foundation, or entity. The transaction need not be complete in 2024 but must at least be announced in 2024. For a transaction to count, more than 50% of TikTok US has to be sold.\n\nIf TikTok is not sold before 2025, or is banned within the US and remains banned for the entirety of 2024, this question will resolve as No.\n\nIf TikTok successfully conducts an initial public offering by end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19942, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732624358.586493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732624358.586493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0326378572057769 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.952603165662476, 6.380268930801157, 0.7855111546561333, 0.367904587341662, 0.4108338431275717, 0.7482316700392164, 0.257453296035477, 0.0847300296267497, 0.2814019280043881, 0.0, 0.28084474819789934, 0.03771470031802149, 0.15131279483273397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08747067761163696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.0, 0.24190266188881915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031468313045325595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07548649499961496, 0.0, 0.01484779729136592, 0.0014504254020369168, 0.009018318531417267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012995582973728041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016841314468324528, 0.0, 0.01085885475966403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031594436946416338, 0.015466976053567325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005493616612509603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043095124901722154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19560005920498844 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.09976514797972, "peer_score": 16.156563997008558, "coverage": 0.9998044922184656, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998044922184656, "spot_peer_score": -8.17827933959849, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 76.09976514797972, "peer_archived_score": 16.156563997008558, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.17827933959849, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288421.042174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288421.042174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995708398188116, 0.004291601811884089 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 423, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/) As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance." }, { "id": 19919, "title": "Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Delhi Cloud Seeding Before December 1?", "url_title": "Delhi Cloud Seeding Before December 1?", "slug": "delhi-cloud-seeding-before-december-1", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-14T16:25:06.287976Z", "published_at": "2023-11-15T20:10:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.947985Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-15T20:10:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-01T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-01T16:10:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-15T20:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19919, "title": "Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-11-14T16:25:06.287976Z", "open_time": "2023-11-15T20:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-17T08:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-17T08:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-01T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-01T16:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-01T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[New Delhi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Delhi), the capital of India, has [been experiencing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19590/new-delhi-air-quality-end-of-october-2023/) very poor air quality. According to data from [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi), the majority of the month of November has been at an [air quality index](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) (AQI) level of \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse, and nearly half of the month has been at levels of \"Hazardous\".\n\n[According to a November 10th Nature article](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03517-1):\n\n>As the Hindu festival of Diwali kicks off on 10 November, the Indian capital of Delhi, already blanketed in choking smog, is bracing for pollution to worsen. Over the past week, children struggling to breath the acrid air have flooded hospital emergency departments, and schools have been forced to close. . .\n>\n>“Every year it is a similar story,” says Vinayak Sinha, an atmospheric chemist at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali.\n>\n>But although Delhi’s air is attracting attention now, scientists say that the spike is actually typical for this time of year. The post-monsoon season, which lasts from October to December, delivers an annual pollution bomb to Delhi, a megacity of more than 30 million people. Other cities in India are also plagued by poor air quality at this time of year.\n>\n>Sinha says that atmospheric conditions after the monsoon exacerbate pollution. Rainfall that washes pollutants out of the air during the monsoon ceases. As temperatures fall, the upper boundary of the troposphere — the lowest layer of atmosphere — drops in altitude and the troposphere shrinks. That causes the soup of pollutants in the troposphere to become more concentrated, says Sinha. “You have a smaller container now into which your air emissions are being stored,” he says.\n>\n>Even so, current conditions came as something of a surprise, says Karthik Ganesan, a policy researcher at the Council on Energy Environment and Water in New Delhi. That’s because the amount of crop waste burnt in the neighbouring Punjab region was lower than usual this year, causing some people to expect a milder increase in pollution.\n>\n>But as it turned out, air quality was as poor as ever because of changing meteorological conditions, including drops in wind speed on certain days. When wind speed falls, the air stagnates, trapping local emissions and leading to a pollution spike, says Ganesan.\n\nNew Delhi is reportedly considering new approaches to improve the air quality, such as cloud seeding. [According to Wired](https://www.wired.com/story/delhi-smog-air-pollution-cloud-seeding/):\n\n>India’s capital, New Delhi, is preparing a new weapon in the fight against deadly air pollution: cloud seeding. The experiment, which could take place as early as next week, would introduce chemicals like silver iodide into a cloudy sky to create rain and, it’s hoped, wash away the fine particulate matter hovering over one of the world’s largest cities.\n>\n>The need is desperate. Delhi has already tried traffic restriction measures, multimillion-dollar air filtration towers, and the use of fleets of water-spraying trucks to dissolve the particulate matter in the air—but to no avail.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Now, Delhi officials are seeking permission from federal agencies in India to try cloud seeding. The technique involves flying an aircraft to spray clouds with salts like silver or potassium iodide or solid carbon dioxide, also known as dry ice, to induce precipitation. The chemical molecules attach to moisture already in the clouds to form bigger droplets that then fall as rain. China has used artificial rain to tackle air pollution in the past—but for cloud seeding to work properly, you need significant cloud cover with reasonable moisture content, which Delhi generally lacks during the winter. If weather conditions are favorable, scientists leading the project at the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur plan to carry out cloud seeding around November 20.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 14, 2023, and before December 1, 2023, credible sources report that Delhi has performed cloud seeding.", "fine_print": "* The cloud seeding need not successfully produce rain or cut down on the smog. This question only asks whether cloud seeding will be performed.\n* The cloud seeding need not occur directly over the Delhi region, so long as reports indicate that it was carried out with approval from the Delhi regional or local government.\n* There is no requirement on the scope or scale of the cloud seeding, so long as credible sources report that cloud seeding has been performed.\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reporting is in doubt.", "post_id": 19919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701383492.071316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701383492.071316, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.050006127041436345 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.368719794481933, 4.855647819314269, 0.12949323017478093, 0.0, 0.02643125667787829, 0.03031140081165182, 0.009674152661148447, 0.019954887933908164, 0.0, 0.013371869685048636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044581621487903636, 0.0, 0.022767602106692503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024891358077342593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014824796017118348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007597310053218979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018696454698634184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026106503329410956, 0.0, 0.0010339533689454465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022195882369684906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008165408802466752, 0.0006246102070092039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6969233821968767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001734479849499291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001557486043652286, 0.0, 0.44762040490108923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.57698384231055, "coverage": 0.9999896651279178, "baseline_score": 38.76421600672434, "spot_peer_score": -6.827812757362943, "peer_archived_score": 16.57698384231055, "baseline_archived_score": 38.76421600672434, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.827812757362943 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701383492.174528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701383492.174528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 384, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[New Delhi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Delhi), the capital of India, has [been experiencing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19590/new-delhi-air-quality-end-of-october-2023/) very poor air quality. According to data from [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi), the majority of the month of November has been at an [air quality index](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) (AQI) level of \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse, and nearly half of the month has been at levels of \"Hazardous\".\n\n[According to a November 10th Nature article](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03517-1):\n\n>As the Hindu festival of Diwali kicks off on 10 November, the Indian capital of Delhi, already blanketed in choking smog, is bracing for pollution to worsen. Over the past week, children struggling to breath the acrid air have flooded hospital emergency departments, and schools have been forced to close. . .\n>\n>“Every year it is a similar story,” says Vinayak Sinha, an atmospheric chemist at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali.\n>\n>But although Delhi’s air is attracting attention now, scientists say that the spike is actually typical for this time of year. The post-monsoon season, which lasts from October to December, delivers an annual pollution bomb to Delhi, a megacity of more than 30 million people. Other cities in India are also plagued by poor air quality at this time of year.\n>\n>Sinha says that atmospheric conditions after the monsoon exacerbate pollution. Rainfall that washes pollutants out of the air during the monsoon ceases. As temperatures fall, the upper boundary of the troposphere — the lowest layer of atmosphere — drops in altitude and the troposphere shrinks. That causes the soup of pollutants in the troposphere to become more concentrated, says Sinha. “You have a smaller container now into which your air emissions are being stored,” he says.\n>\n>Even so, current conditions came as something of a surprise, says Karthik Ganesan, a policy researcher at the Council on Energy Environment and Water in New Delhi. That’s because the amount of crop waste burnt in the neighbouring Punjab region was lower than usual this year, causing some people to expect a milder increase in pollution.\n>\n>But as it turned out, air quality was as poor as ever because of changing meteorological conditions, including drops in wind speed on certain days. When wind speed falls, the air stagnates, trapping local emissions and leading to a pollution spike, says Ganesan.\n\nNew Delhi is reportedly considering new approaches to improve the air quality, such as cloud seeding. [According to Wired](https://www.wired.com/story/delhi-smog-air-pollution-cloud-seeding/):\n\n>India’s capital, New Delhi, is preparing a new weapon in the fight against deadly air pollution: cloud seeding. The experiment, which could take place as early as next week, would introduce chemicals like silver iodide into a cloudy sky to create rain and, it’s hoped, wash away the fine particulate matter hovering over one of the world’s largest cities.\n>\n>The need is desperate. Delhi has already tried traffic restriction measures, multimillion-dollar air filtration towers, and the use of fleets of water-spraying trucks to dissolve the particulate matter in the air—but to no avail.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Now, Delhi officials are seeking permission from federal agencies in India to try cloud seeding. The technique involves flying an aircraft to spray clouds with salts like silver or potassium iodide or solid carbon dioxide, also known as dry ice, to induce precipitation. The chemical molecules attach to moisture already in the clouds to form bigger droplets that then fall as rain. China has used artificial rain to tackle air pollution in the past—but for cloud seeding to work properly, you need significant cloud cover with reasonable moisture content, which Delhi generally lacks during the winter. If weather conditions are favorable, scientists leading the project at the Indian Institute of Technology in Kanpur plan to carry out cloud seeding around November 20." }, { "id": 19918, "title": "Will Andy Carlile's 7:10 BTG Nürburgring Nordschleife motorcycle laptime be beaten before 2030?", "short_title": "Motorcycle BTG Nordschleife lap below 7:10", "url_title": "Motorcycle BTG Nordschleife lap below 7:10", "slug": "motorcycle-btg-nordschleife-lap-below-710", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-14T00:14:16.595613Z", "published_at": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.278165Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19918, "title": "Will Andy Carlile's 7:10 BTG Nürburgring Nordschleife motorcycle laptime be beaten before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-11-14T00:14:16.595613Z", "open_time": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-17T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-17T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Video of 7:10 lap](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inc9cGasgsA)\n\nThe Nürburgring Nordschleife is a historic racing track in Germany, famous for its length (19.1 km in BTG configuration) and difficulty. The track features over 150 corners, 1000 feet of elevation change, and few modern safety features, such as runoff area. It is well known among motorsports enthusiasts and is used by automakers for testing. For part of the year the track is open to road legal vehicles driven by the general public--so-called \"Touristenfahren.\" Andy Carlile (sometimes spelled Carlisle) is known for setting the fastest motorcycle lap time on this track in BTG configuration in 2012, clocking in at 7:10 on a road-legal Yamaha YZF-R1. This record has stood for over 11 years as of early 2024. BTG is short for bridge-to-gantry, the partial track configuration used during Touristenfahren, which omits part of the main straight.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** upon credible video evidence showing a lap time of under 7 minutes and 10 seconds on a motorcycle at the Nordschleife BTG (Bridge to Gantry), specifically during a Touristenfahren session. The lap time must be clearly displayed as less than 7:10, meaning rounding is not considered.\n\nIf this event does not happen before 2030, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nAny modifications to the track are allowed as long as the Nordschleife, Touristenfahren, and a layout considered to be BTG still exist.\n\nThis question does not resolve as ambiguous under any circumstances, including motorcycles being banned from the the track, the track permanently closing or the BTG layout no longer existing. If those or similar circumstances preclude any possibility of a <7:10 lap time before 2030, the question will resolve as **No** on the resolution date.", "fine_print": "A motorcycle is defined as a two-wheeled vehicle requiring the human rider to lean to turn. Autonomous motorcycles or any other vehicles that do not meet this definition do not qualify. \n\nAny video that clearly shows the entire lap and crossing of both the bridge and gantry in real life is considered credible.", "post_id": 19918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740436232.594752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.243667677 ], "centers": [ 0.247 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.247 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740436232.594752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.243667677 ], "centers": [ 0.247 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.247 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.753, 0.247 ], "means": [ 0.2465552757549766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7277212189012763, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288775.968331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288775.968331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8900122844081869, 0.10998771559181311 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Video of 7:10 lap](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inc9cGasgsA)\n\nThe Nürburgring Nordschleife is a historic racing track in Germany, famous for its length (19.1 km in BTG configuration) and difficulty. The track features over 150 corners, 1000 feet of elevation change, and few modern safety features, such as runoff area. It is well known among motorsports enthusiasts and is used by automakers for testing. For part of the year the track is open to road legal vehicles driven by the general public--so-called \"Touristenfahren.\" Andy Carlile (sometimes spelled Carlisle) is known for setting the fastest motorcycle lap time on this track in BTG configuration in 2012, clocking in at 7:10 on a road-legal Yamaha YZF-R1. This record has stood for over 11 years as of early 2024. BTG is short for bridge-to-gantry, the partial track configuration used during Touristenfahren, which omits part of the main straight." }, { "id": 19914, "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?", "short_title": "Draft Registration for Women before 2026?", "url_title": "Draft Registration for Women before 2026?", "slug": "draft-registration-for-women-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-13T22:00:46.521599Z", "published_at": "2023-11-14T23:21:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:57:03.526064Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-14T23:21:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-14T23:21:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19914, "title": "Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-11-13T22:00:46.521599Z", "open_time": "2023-11-14T23:21:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-17T23:21:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-17T23:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Supreme Court in June of 2021 [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\n\n>In 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n\n>. . .\n\n>On March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n\n>. . .\n\n>It remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.\n\nA provision requiring women to register appeared in both the [2021](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/06/ndaa-women-draft-dropped-523829) and [2022](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-12-07/us-congress-covid-vaccine-8332200.html) versions of the Senate Armed Services Committee's proposed [National Defense Authorization Acts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Authorization_Act), but was ultimately removed each year.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if women (assigned female at birth) are legally required to register for US Selective Service before January 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by reference to official legal codes or text or by reporting from credible sources that women are required to register. To resolve as **Yes**, the law must take effect, resulting in women registering for the draft due to the requirement; a court decision or the enactment of a law that required women to register at a future date would not count until it came into effect, and a legal requirement to register on or after January 1, 2026 would not count.", "fine_print": "* This question will still resolve as **Yes** if there are exceptions to the requirement to register for some women of the required age range, so long as most women of the required age range are required to register.\n* Elimination of Selective Service registration in its entirety would result in the question resolving as **No**, if maintained through the date in question.", "post_id": 19914, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757706429.789374, "end_time": 1762379982.79, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757706429.789374, "end_time": 1762379982.79, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01149112137346914 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.3064229895956014, 1.9716275482544399, 1.4087161392391032, 0.2727745066065411, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289999.440816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289999.440816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.989258331862189, 0.010741668137810932 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 146, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Supreme Court in June of 2021 [declined to hear a legal case](https://www.npr.org/2021/06/07/1003270634/supreme-court-turns-away-challenge-to-the-rule-that-only-men-register-for-the-dr) challenging the male-only draft on the grounds that it was unconstitutional sex discrimination. In the [opinion denying certification](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/20-928_e1p3.pdf) (written by Justice Sotomayor and joined by Justices Breyer and Kavanaugh) the following is stated (edited for easier readability):\n\n>In 2016, Congress created the National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service (NCMNPS) and tasked it with studying whether Selective Service registration should be conducted “regardless of sex.”\n\n>. . .\n\n>On March 25, 2020, the Commission released its final report, in which it recommended “eliminat[ing] male-only registration.” Among other things, the Commission found that “[m]ale-only registration sends a message to women not only that they are not vital to the defense of the country but also that they are not expected to participate in defending it.” Just a few months ago, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on the report, where Chairman Jack Reed expressed his “hope” that a gender-neutral registration requirement will be “incorporated into the next national defense bill.” \n\n>. . .\n\n>It remains to be seen, of course, whether Congress will end gender-based registration under the Military Selective Service Act. But at least for now, the Court’s longstanding deference to Congress on matters of national defense and military affairs cautions against granting review while Congress actively weighs the issue. I agree with the Court’s decision to deny the petition for a writ of certiorari.\n\nA provision requiring women to register appeared in both the [2021](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/06/ndaa-women-draft-dropped-523829) and [2022](https://www.stripes.com/theaters/us/2022-12-07/us-congress-covid-vaccine-8332200.html) versions of the Senate Armed Services Committee's proposed [National Defense Authorization Acts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Authorization_Act), but was ultimately removed each year." }, { "id": 19909, "title": "Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?", "short_title": "Volodymyr Zelenskyy Israel Visit Before 2024", "url_title": "Volodymyr Zelenskyy Israel Visit Before 2024", "slug": "volodymyr-zelenskyy-israel-visit-before-2024", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-13T18:46:41.176729Z", "published_at": "2023-11-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.027950Z", "curation_status": 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conflict, many pro-Israeli nations have shown their support for Israel [via high profile visits](https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-11-03/why-canada-is-taking-a-cautious-approach-to-the-israel-hamas-war) including, US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.\n\nUkraine is another nation which is seen as pro-Israeli, however, in past and present times, the [relationship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Ukraine_relations#:~:text=Both%20countries%20recognized%20each%20other,a%20consulate%2Dgeneral%20in%20Haifa.) between both nations has appeared tentative. Israel still maintains friendly relations with Russia, and Israel has yet to outright condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Israel has also, [until recently](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10293/israel-arms-ukraine-before-2024/?category=all&duration=1&year=2023), refused to send military aid to Ukraine which is in stark contrast to many of Israel's western allies.\n\nVolodymyr Zelenskyy initially indicated his [intention to visit](https://www.axios.com/2023/10/11/zelensky-israel-hamas-war-gaza-visit-netanyahu) Israel in a show of support, however this was initially [shot-down](https://news.yahoo.com/media-israel-refuses-zelensky-visit-140611433.html) by Netanyahu, stating that the \"*time is not right*\".\n\nThis decision was short-lived, as it was recently [reported](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/preparations-for-zelensky-to-visit-israel-next-week-reportedly-in-advanced-phase/) that Zelenskyy's trip to Israel was in advanced stages of planning. Said reporting, however, was leaked (presumably by members of Netenyahu's government), and the trip was promptly [cancelled](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/11/06/zelensky-s-trip-to-israel-in-doubt-after-media-leak_6231250_4.html):\n\n>According to the diplomat, the Ukrainian president \"wanted the trip to be public when he stepped on Israeli soil.\" \"He's very disappointed,\" he added.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Volodymyr Zelenskyy steps foot in Israel, for any reason, before 23:59 IST, December 31, 2023. \n\nOtherwise, it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19909, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701680501.53107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701680501.53107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.16910047656130006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2525234421068459, 0.0007675257748707193, 0.504732631449816, 0.7145841754254348, 2.9695107463957977, 1.9475504788842493, 0.2472675175305873, 0.3083447705147823, 0.62757532686961, 3.540344732922949, 0.9155102425173884, 0.696956310828841, 0.42669140822518037, 0.03937847168643575, 0.6435143652977129, 0.05492099964605583, 0.0, 0.0017636591650837267, 0.0, 0.718097367021086, 0.0, 0.14301242507236242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38726473068077705, 0.013062532700666108, 0.0, 0.13529016037761737, 0.0, 0.41255644357579174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010686620243657346, 0.47991443928318106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005987133726784101, 0.0004287750568701284, 0.33414766806612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02779205072670019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25577406392958063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010424239163311021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8207673335959451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04816268109337523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.539014030456718, "coverage": 0.9999437679642399, "baseline_score": 62.89016337886713, "spot_peer_score": 22.671255167967285, "peer_archived_score": 9.539014030456718, "baseline_archived_score": 62.89016337886713, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.671255167967285 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701680501.580138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701680501.580138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9761640590911727, 0.023835940908827364 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 362, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From the onset of the [Gaza-Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza–Israel_conflict) conflict, many pro-Israeli nations have shown their support for Israel [via high profile visits](https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-11-03/why-canada-is-taking-a-cautious-approach-to-the-israel-hamas-war) including, US President Joe Biden, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.\n\nUkraine is another nation which is seen as pro-Israeli, however, in past and present times, the [relationship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Ukraine_relations#:~:text=Both%20countries%20recognized%20each%20other,a%20consulate%2Dgeneral%20in%20Haifa.) between both nations has appeared tentative. Israel still maintains friendly relations with Russia, and Israel has yet to outright condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Israel has also, [until recently](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10293/israel-arms-ukraine-before-2024/?category=all&duration=1&year=2023), refused to send military aid to Ukraine which is in stark contrast to many of Israel's western allies.\n\nVolodymyr Zelenskyy initially indicated his [intention to visit](https://www.axios.com/2023/10/11/zelensky-israel-hamas-war-gaza-visit-netanyahu) Israel in a show of support, however this was initially [shot-down](https://news.yahoo.com/media-israel-refuses-zelensky-visit-140611433.html) by Netanyahu, stating that the \"*time is not right*\".\n\nThis decision was short-lived, as it was recently [reported](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/preparations-for-zelensky-to-visit-israel-next-week-reportedly-in-advanced-phase/) that Zelenskyy's trip to Israel was in advanced stages of planning. Said reporting, however, was leaked (presumably by members of Netenyahu's government), and the trip was promptly [cancelled](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/11/06/zelensky-s-trip-to-israel-in-doubt-after-media-leak_6231250_4.html):\n\n>According to the diplomat, the Ukrainian president \"wanted the trip to be public when he stepped on Israeli soil.\" \"He's very disappointed,\" he added." }, { "id": 19898, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "BTC $40k in 2023?", "url_title": "BTC $40k in 2023?", "slug": "btc-40k-in-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-13T14:51:53.997289Z", "published_at": "2023-11-15T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.498499Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-15T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-04T00:35:00Z", 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"economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19898, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-13T14:51:53.997289Z", "open_time": "2023-11-15T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-18T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-18T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-04T00:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-04T00:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-04T00:35:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the beginning of 2023 BTC traded at between $16,000 and $17,000 in the wake of the [FTX collapse](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/technology/ftx-binance-crypto-explained.html) in late 2022 and a general [crypto market downturn in 2022](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-crypto-contagion-from-bitcoin-to-FTX/). Since then, BTC has surged to over $37,000, levels that had not been seen since early 2022. Whether or not BTC will reach the $40,000 threshold in 2023 has been a [topic of recent discussion.](https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/bitcoins-battle-for-40k-what-lies-ahead-in-q4-2023/#:~:text=Bitcoin%20Price%20Prediction%20By%20Crypto%20Analyst%3A&text=The%20analysts%20predicted%20that%20if,year%20around%20the%20same%20range.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price of $40,000 or more before January 1, 2024. Whether or not the price is at or above $40,000 at the end of the year does not matter. This question resolves solely on the basis of whether BTC reaches or exceeds the $40,000 threshold. The primary resolution source is [CoinMarketCap]( https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) If the resolution source is unavailable, other comparable sources may be used. However, if sources disagree, CoinMarketCap is the primary source.", "fine_print": "In the case of uncertainty regarding whether the threshold has been met on CoinMarketCap, we will use the five minute increments available on the one day price view on the chart. Note that the most recent few minutes may use a smaller time increment, however, to resolve as **Yes** the threshold must be met or exceeded at the five minute or larger time increment when the resolution source is accessed at a later time by Metaculus.", "post_id": 19898, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701705325.36318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701705325.36318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9711516724255996 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005013454196939874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036786318303425264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1734915479669947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050078357053875994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00408759452487577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005179738732610148, 0.0, 0.002640647313302665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006671456224926604, 0.0, 0.0001909346503134918, 0.0, 0.0003160651598784178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08159473194410838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013894719645662337, 0.3409274149658343, 0.00024960518686219994, 0.0, 0.011234427214325807, 0.0, 0.3089956165165272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008845328803183903, 0.0, 0.08084841945592093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0341296173624065, 0.0, 0.05418085032293946, 0.014803855717505985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01741136469478341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03555744615196201, 0.04902032594367584, 0.1466266208268635, 0.032065469620867, 0.0458372495406289, 0.45308580379977154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1210920954982069, 17.052426192029827 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.40751990993835, "coverage": 0.40104944336587534, "baseline_score": 13.624604904161389, "spot_peer_score": 20.176680145220832, "peer_archived_score": 9.40751990993835, "baseline_archived_score": 13.624604904161389, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.176680145220832 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701648748.706508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701648748.706508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.062445917497547465, 0.9375540825024525 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 476, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the beginning of 2023 BTC traded at between $16,000 and $17,000 in the wake of the [FTX collapse](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/technology/ftx-binance-crypto-explained.html) in late 2022 and a general [crypto market downturn in 2022](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-crypto-contagion-from-bitcoin-to-FTX/). Since then, BTC has surged to over $37,000, levels that had not been seen since early 2022. Whether or not BTC will reach the $40,000 threshold in 2023 has been a [topic of recent discussion.](https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/bitcoins-battle-for-40k-what-lies-ahead-in-q4-2023/#:~:text=Bitcoin%20Price%20Prediction%20By%20Crypto%20Analyst%3A&text=The%20analysts%20predicted%20that%20if,year%20around%20the%20same%20range.)" }, { "id": 19879, "title": "Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?", "short_title": "Will Tesla mass produce humanoid robots", "url_title": "Will Tesla mass produce humanoid robots", "slug": "will-tesla-mass-produce-humanoid-robots", "author_id": 154578, "author_username": "TimeTraveller34", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T17:25:19.754062Z", "published_at": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T16:49:42.952875Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 161, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19879, "title": "Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T17:25:19.754062Z", "open_time": "2024-01-20T22:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-23T22:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-23T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "#### From the [Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\n> A humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n####[Current progress on Optimus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot))\n\n> Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a conceptual general-purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla, Inc. It was announced at the companies Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day event on August 19, 2021. CEO Elon Musk claimed during the event that Tesla would likely build a prototype by 2022.\n\n> Tesla CEO Elon Musk at AI Day 2022 unveiled the companies progress showing Optimus which shuffled across a stage, waved, and pumped its arms in a low-speed dance move. The robot could cost $20,000 within three to five years, Musk said.\n\n> Musk said on X in May 2023 that the \"Optimus Team is making excellent progress\". Tesla then posted a progress update of Optimus in a YouTube video in October 2023 with accompanying text saying it's \"now capable of self-calibrating its arms and legs.\"\n\n[The video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2vj0WcvH5c) shows the robot sorting building blocks by colour using its hands, vision, and Tesla's on-board neural net. The clip ends with Optimus doing some yoga stretches. \n\n####For more details on Tesla's progress see:\n* https://www.cnet.com/home/smart-home/tesla-reveals-optimus-a-walking-humanoid-robot-you-could-buy-in-2027/\n* https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-humanoid-robots-tesla-hiring-workers-2023-11?r=US&IR=T\n* https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/16/23726139/tesla-robot-update-video-shareholder-meeting", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate Tesla has manufactured at least one thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before January 1, 2028.", "fine_print": "A humanoid robot in this context means: - \n\n* A bi-pedal robot with two arms, two legs, a head and torso\n * That can perform at least the basic tasks of walking, picking up objects and carrying.\n* These will perform tasks autonomously driven by A.I.\n* They should not be directly controlled by humans.", "post_id": 19879, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758473372.784699, "end_time": 1758629036.061008, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758473372.784699, "end_time": 1758629036.061008, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.2797111073420321 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6141729963407618, 1.561675695698454, 0.1644139841834128, 1.4766355139570333, 0.6320836962977633, 2.8715548606525347, 0.3139977725922227, 0.0, 1.1121043302977753, 0.0, 0.39825236653139795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03341826197861836, 1.4877065017009512, 0.011707819368802578, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25126065757939425, 0.030830933517555805, 0.12321600498569375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5491712145998837, 0.0, 0.193273158635837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17917667657217257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012879116712703483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026668637948713955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6212443591700132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18151865870128317, 0.0, 0.026156677666015777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29596887334179584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004790762626597634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002733989519125462, 0.0, 0.5253074287692651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6077723884297925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0423024589850556, 0.06617533088585446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8108520837902014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0819027810168348, 0.5114904632356216 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287471.793634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287471.793634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9629939189102649, 0.03700608108973517 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 380, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "#### From the [Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\n> A humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n####[Current progress on Optimus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimus_(robot))\n\n> Optimus, also known as Tesla Bot, is a conceptual general-purpose robotic humanoid under development by Tesla, Inc. It was announced at the companies Artificial Intelligence (AI) Day event on August 19, 2021. CEO Elon Musk claimed during the event that Tesla would likely build a prototype by 2022.\n\n> Tesla CEO Elon Musk at AI Day 2022 unveiled the companies progress showing Optimus which shuffled across a stage, waved, and pumped its arms in a low-speed dance move. The robot could cost $20,000 within three to five years, Musk said.\n\n> Musk said on X in May 2023 that the \"Optimus Team is making excellent progress\". Tesla then posted a progress update of Optimus in a YouTube video in October 2023 with accompanying text saying it's \"now capable of self-calibrating its arms and legs.\"\n\n[The video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2vj0WcvH5c) shows the robot sorting building blocks by colour using its hands, vision, and Tesla's on-board neural net. The clip ends with Optimus doing some yoga stretches. \n\n####For more details on Tesla's progress see:\n* https://www.cnet.com/home/smart-home/tesla-reveals-optimus-a-walking-humanoid-robot-you-could-buy-in-2027/\n* https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-humanoid-robots-tesla-hiring-workers-2023-11?r=US&IR=T\n* https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/16/23726139/tesla-robot-update-video-shareholder-meeting" }, { "id": 19878, "title": "Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Will China mass produce humanoid robots", "url_title": "Will China mass produce humanoid robots", "slug": "will-china-mass-produce-humanoid-robots", "author_id": 154578, "author_username": "TimeTraveller34", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T16:13:52.694918Z", "published_at": "2024-02-25T02:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:57:46.005150Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-25T02:58:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 137, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19878, "title": "Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T16:13:52.694918Z", "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-28T02:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-28T02:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "#### From the [ Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\nA humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n\n####Current progress\n\nBy 2025, China aims to establish an initial humanoid robot innovation system, achieving breakthroughs in crucial components such as “brains, cerebellum, and limbs,” while ensuring a safe and efficient supply of core components. The production level for these robots is expected to reach an advanced international standard, with mass production occurring. These robots are anticipated to demonstrate their effectiveness across various fields, from manufacturing to livelihood services.\n\nAmong China's most advanced projects are those by Xiaomi and Fourier Intelligence. Xiaomi is working on its CyberOne, a robot that is supposed to be capable not only of perceiving space in 3D, but also of recognising individuals and interpreting their gestures, expressions and emotions. Combined with artificial intelligence, it could one day interact directly with humans. For its part, Fourier Intelligence is preparing to launch its first humanoid robot, the GR-1, specialised in medical actions, capable of moving at 5 km/h and carrying loads of several dozen kilogrammes. Its first deliveries are scheduled for 2024.\n\n####For more details on China's progress see:\n\n* https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/11/china-ministry-pushes-for-humanoid-robot-mass-production-by-2025-and-100-billion-market-by-2030.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter\n* https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2023/11/09/china-aims-to-mass-produce-humanoid-robots-by-2027\n* https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3240259/china-says-humanoid-robots-are-new-engine-growth-pushes-mass-production-2025-and-world-leadership", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible reports indicate a robotics company with headquarters in China has manufactured more than a thousand humanoid robots of an identical model before the end of 2025.", "fine_print": "A humanoid robot in this context means: - \n\n* A bi-pedal robot with two arms, two legs, a head and torso\n * That can perform at least the basic tasks of walking, picking up objects and carrying.\n* These will perform tasks autonomously driven by A.I.\n* They should not be directly controlled by humans.", "post_id": 19878, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756923145.0028, "end_time": 1759065135.067075, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756923145.0028, "end_time": 1759065135.067075, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9242622460151726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45216632152701414, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.06427640630688772, 0.47545062613122946, 0.7431875905215172, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 3.8710986963186027, 0.0, 0.357644394566907, 0.5831873765221077, 2.045552989868473 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288711.201262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288711.201262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9094415788742092, 0.09055842112579088 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 354, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "#### From the [ Humanoid robot Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humanoid_robot)\n\nA humanoid robot is a robot resembling the human body in shape. The design may be for functional purposes, such as interacting with human tools and environments, for experimental purposes, such as the study of bipedal locomotion, or for other purposes. In general, humanoid robots have a torso, a head, two arms, and two legs, though some humanoid robots may replicate only part of the body, for example, from the waist up. Some humanoid robots also have heads designed to replicate human facial features such as eyes and mouths. Androids are humanoid robots built to aesthetically resemble humans.\n\n\n\n\n####Current progress\n\nBy 2025, China aims to establish an initial humanoid robot innovation system, achieving breakthroughs in crucial components such as “brains, cerebellum, and limbs,” while ensuring a safe and efficient supply of core components. The production level for these robots is expected to reach an advanced international standard, with mass production occurring. These robots are anticipated to demonstrate their effectiveness across various fields, from manufacturing to livelihood services.\n\nAmong China's most advanced projects are those by Xiaomi and Fourier Intelligence. Xiaomi is working on its CyberOne, a robot that is supposed to be capable not only of perceiving space in 3D, but also of recognising individuals and interpreting their gestures, expressions and emotions. Combined with artificial intelligence, it could one day interact directly with humans. For its part, Fourier Intelligence is preparing to launch its first humanoid robot, the GR-1, specialised in medical actions, capable of moving at 5 km/h and carrying loads of several dozen kilogrammes. Its first deliveries are scheduled for 2024.\n\n####For more details on China's progress see:\n\n* https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2023/11/china-ministry-pushes-for-humanoid-robot-mass-production-by-2025-and-100-billion-market-by-2030.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter\n* https://www.thestar.com.my/tech/tech-news/2023/11/09/china-aims-to-mass-produce-humanoid-robots-by-2027\n* https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3240259/china-says-humanoid-robots-are-new-engine-growth-pushes-mass-production-2025-and-world-leadership" }, { "id": 19877, "title": "Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Polio Reinfections?", "url_title": "Polio Reinfections?", "slug": "polio-reinfections", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:47:56.221963Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.184593Z", 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"2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19877, "title": "Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:47:56.221963Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T16:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T16:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-06T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2014, the [WHO declared the spread of poliovirus a global health emergency,](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/public-health-emergency-status/#:~:text=On%205%20May%202014%20the,poliovirus%2C%20and%20requested%20a%20reassessment) leading to ongoing efforts to combat the disease. As of 2023, countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and several African nations continue to report cases of wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus. Conversely, nations such as Canada, Egypt, and Uganda, previously affected, now [face the risk of reinfection despite being currently free of active cases](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/public-health-emergency-status/). This situation highlights the persistent threat of polio, especially in areas with inadequate vaccination coverage, and underscores the need for sustained vigilance and immunization efforts globally to prevent resurgence and achieve eradication. For a weekly update, [see here](https://polioeradication.org/this-week/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if two or more countries that are currently listed as no longer infected but vulnerable to re-infection are no longer on that list as of May 31, 2024, due to experiencing re-infection, according to the [Global Polio Eradication Initiative](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/public-health-emergency-status/). The relevant countries are: Djibouti, Canada, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Mauritania, Senegal, Uganda, and Ukraine that are currently no longer infected. On May 31, this list will be accessed again and any of the above listed countries that are listed as a state infected with any of the polio variants will be counted for resolution. The final value is the sum of these.", "fine_print": "* New additions to the list of no longer infected countries will not be relevant for resolution.\r\n* If the resolution source is no longer updated, we will refer to publications from any PHEIC meeting that occur before the resolution date, using the most recent ones.", "post_id": 19877, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708850516.091095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708850516.091095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8334554703117852 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12098568606878847, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17659841324481915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09577310539958149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01040622348426393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004173285167582051, 0.03550367010089748, 0.27389162834287195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8612037126083073, 0.031134300295554664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05138228252970245, 0.21134819307803016, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04559318956273326, 0.5322622082800585, 0.8743281366997349, 0.0, 0.2515406540753948, 1.4817346416537838, 1.4510323223003523, 1.4304298116832137, 0.1333270524573957, 0.9626324682969808, 0.0, 2.47589584724076, 0.0, 0.7621474614065294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2978686829232104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23072242730151374, 0.10957976461626417 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 25.367665042695325, "coverage": 0.9980978939817737, "baseline_score": 27.923649363915874, "spot_peer_score": 36.17530601270906, "peer_archived_score": 25.367665042695325, "baseline_archived_score": 27.923649363915874, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.17530601270906 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192439.124491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192439.124491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1554594689349854, 0.8445405310650146 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 191, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In May 2014, the [WHO declared the spread of poliovirus a global health emergency,](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/public-health-emergency-status/#:~:text=On%205%20May%202014%20the,poliovirus%2C%20and%20requested%20a%20reassessment) leading to ongoing efforts to combat the disease. As of 2023, countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, and several African nations continue to report cases of wild and vaccine-derived poliovirus. Conversely, nations such as Canada, Egypt, and Uganda, previously affected, now [face the risk of reinfection despite being currently free of active cases](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/public-health-emergency-status/). This situation highlights the persistent threat of polio, especially in areas with inadequate vaccination coverage, and underscores the need for sustained vigilance and immunization efforts globally to prevent resurgence and achieve eradication. For a weekly update, [see here](https://polioeradication.org/this-week/)." }, { "id": 19873, "title": "Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Germany Nuclear Plants", "url_title": "Germany Nuclear Plants", "slug": "germany-nuclear-plants", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:44:27.288531Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.550155Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:07:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 114, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19873, "title": "Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:44:27.288531Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T16:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Germany finalized its long-planned exit from nuclear energy in [April 2023](https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-phase-out_node.html), shutting down its last three nuclear power plants. This decision was part of a [policy shift that began in 1998](https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/germany.aspx), with the government initially planning to phase out nuclear power, a plan briefly cancelled in 2009 but reinstated in 2011 following the [Fukushima Daiichi](https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx) accident. By early 2011, Germany had 17 nuclear reactors supplying over one-quarter of its electricity, but this number was progressively reduced. The final closure of the remaining reactors in 2023 marked a significant energy transition for Germany, moving away from nuclear power towards other energy sources. A [2023](https://www.radiantenergygroup.com/reports/restart-of-germany-reactors-can-it-be-done) report found that two-thirds of Germans support nuclear energy and that at least 8 of the old reactors can be restarted within as little as 9 months.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if there is at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024. The primary source for this determination will be the [Nuclear power in Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany) page, which is expected to be updated with the operational status of nuclear power plants. If the page has not been updated or there is ambiguity regarding the operational status, the question will resolve based on the most recent and reliable information from German government announcements, energy oversight bodies, or reputable energy sector news outlets. If no clear information is available by the specified date and sources disagree, the question will resolve as ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709206241.53378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709206241.53378, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018192845809638727 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.900564040947918, 8.592520436361767, 0.5215300076972951, 0.6357454636087506, 0.0, 0.19353853759941367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4494773448345456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020194253322441606, 0.0, 0.023544217695779756, 0.0, 0.012874290616542414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08796053765710685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39444170962328534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012594524045710233, 0.016250367944418115, 0.006040225766337409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01753022629147086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00279130310708259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.840358961771829, "coverage": 0.9999361664158889, "baseline_score": 98.07254049363199, "spot_peer_score": 16.406735267018163, "peer_archived_score": 9.840358961771829, "baseline_archived_score": 98.07254049363199, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.406735267018163 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709206241.586156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709206241.586156, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 237, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Germany finalized its long-planned exit from nuclear energy in [April 2023](https://www.base.bund.de/EN/ns/nuclear-phase-out/nuclear-phase-out_node.html), shutting down its last three nuclear power plants. This decision was part of a [policy shift that began in 1998](https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/germany.aspx), with the government initially planning to phase out nuclear power, a plan briefly cancelled in 2009 but reinstated in 2011 following the [Fukushima Daiichi](https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx) accident. By early 2011, Germany had 17 nuclear reactors supplying over one-quarter of its electricity, but this number was progressively reduced. The final closure of the remaining reactors in 2023 marked a significant energy transition for Germany, moving away from nuclear power towards other energy sources. A [2023](https://www.radiantenergygroup.com/reports/restart-of-germany-reactors-can-it-be-done) report found that two-thirds of Germans support nuclear energy and that at least 8 of the old reactors can be restarted within as little as 9 months." }, { "id": 19871, "title": "Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Anthropic/OpenAI Licenses", "url_title": "Anthropic/OpenAI Licenses", "slug": "anthropicopenai-licenses", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:42:39.144282Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.087719Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:15:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19871, "title": "Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:42:39.144282Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T16:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the current AI landscape, there's a significant divide between proprietary and open-source AI models. Proprietary AI, represented by LLM models like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude, boasts substantial market influence and development, supported by extensive resources and large model and training run sizes. On the other hand, open-source AI models like Llama, Falcon, and Mistral rely on more open source approaches as well as lower model sizes. At the moment, proprietary models dominate the LLM [leaderboards](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), though given the fast-moving nature of this industry, it is unclear whether the advantage of large, proprietary models will be sustained.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is at least one model in the top-10 that has a non-proprietary licence and is released by Anthropic or OpenAI based on the rankings of models on the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) hosted on the Hugging Face website. Any license that is not ‘Proprietary’ is sufficient for a model to count for resolution. If the leaderboard does not provide sufficient information regarding the licensing or is not updated by the resolution date, the question will resolve as ambiguous.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19871, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709171157.164794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709171157.164794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.029422494042423364 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0497851112781138, 4.098645546559623, 2.558160484682996, 3.1397386881959233, 1.336234872886179, 0.8796327146559954, 0.48066753395180806, 0.12937938925547218, 0.0, 0.02349653657703422, 0.017079443922447042, 0.16494638649399593, 0.14115056931138625, 0.11106940192825875, 0.010489473131136438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015651176037633063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00764267295316474, 0.06871034895382641, 0.0, 0.02077493900944314, 0.0028115822550663413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0053628669779807745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006437720576519247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.423264634853556, "coverage": 0.999455781740724, "baseline_score": 89.60656949585795, "spot_peer_score": 17.743871491761418, "peer_archived_score": 10.423264634853556, "baseline_archived_score": 89.60656949585795, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.743871491761418 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192452.314714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192452.314714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9978874072712227, 0.0021125927287773305 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the current AI landscape, there's a significant divide between proprietary and open-source AI models. Proprietary AI, represented by LLM models like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude, boasts substantial market influence and development, supported by extensive resources and large model and training run sizes. On the other hand, open-source AI models like Llama, Falcon, and Mistral rely on more open source approaches as well as lower model sizes. At the moment, proprietary models dominate the LLM [leaderboards](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), though given the fast-moving nature of this industry, it is unclear whether the advantage of large, proprietary models will be sustained." }, { "id": 19870, "title": "Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Apple LLM 2024?", "url_title": "Apple LLM 2024?", "slug": "apple-llm-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:41:24.154697Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.005862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19870, "title": "Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:41:24.154697Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While major tech companies like OpenAI, Meta, and Google have actively released their Large Language Models (LLMs) to the public, Apple remains an exception in this trend. Despite its significant advancements and investments in AI, particularly with the internal development of the rumoured [Ajax-powered chatbot](https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/19/23800430/apple-gpt-ai-chatbot-generative-ai), Apple has not yet made any of its generative AI technologies publicly available. This contrasts with the faster approaches of its competitors, who are rapidly deploying and releasing their LLMs for widespread use and research, showcasing a divergent strategy in the competitive field of artificial intelligence. Given Apple’s large resources and track-record of strong product launches, any potential Apple LLM may be one of the strongest contenders.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the ranking of language model chatbots on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard hosted on the Hugging Face website at [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard). If an LLM developed by Apple or a subsidiary of Apple is listed among the top-5 positions on May 31, 2024, the question will resolve as 'Yes'. If no such LLM by Apple or a subsidiary of Apple appears in the top-5, or if the leaderboard is not updated or accessible by the resolution date, the question will resolve as 'No'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19870, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709206279.993777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.046 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709206279.993777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.046 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04475374242425462 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7704125726691748, 5.603547406899538, 3.4877418887506715, 1.432861979357387, 2.5694858461131895, 1.54267241849139, 0.0, 0.7049237270466437, 0.00784546800835153, 0.2326318799626671, 0.29750874988051046, 0.10475168878452759, 0.2785594639852932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11610799221326185, 0.002071361526079036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008697920756189014, 0.020260378170746603, 0.0004790762626597634, 0.01550759793289652, 0.0, 0.057193170883778566, 0.05401027835385818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737654326900534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00962250396267543, 0.0050682898931823745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030830933517555805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026156677666015777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3961933719488098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003539921380459027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006282599611561514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.62922705556772, "coverage": 0.9994504696715327, "baseline_score": 85.888684343834, "spot_peer_score": 10.723778156320817, "peer_archived_score": 10.62922705556772, "baseline_archived_score": 85.888684343834, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.723778156320817 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709206280.043942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709206280.043942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9987445006619605, 0.0012554993380394334 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 269, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While major tech companies like OpenAI, Meta, and Google have actively released their Large Language Models (LLMs) to the public, Apple remains an exception in this trend. Despite its significant advancements and investments in AI, particularly with the internal development of the rumoured [Ajax-powered chatbot](https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/19/23800430/apple-gpt-ai-chatbot-generative-ai), Apple has not yet made any of its generative AI technologies publicly available. This contrasts with the faster approaches of its competitors, who are rapidly deploying and releasing their LLMs for widespread use and research, showcasing a divergent strategy in the competitive field of artificial intelligence. Given Apple’s large resources and track-record of strong product launches, any potential Apple LLM may be one of the strongest contenders." }, { "id": 19869, "title": "Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI Public Company", "url_title": "OpenAI Public Company", "slug": "openai-public-company", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:40:34.094119Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.545128Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:04:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 125, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19869, "title": "Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:40:34.094119Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Founded in 2015 by notable figures like Elon Musk and Sam Altman, OpenAI began as a non-profit organization with a vision to advance AI technology for the benefit of humanity. However, in 2019, OpenAI transitioned to a [\"capped\" for-profit model](https://www.lxahub.com/stories/the-history-of-openai), known as OpenAI LP, allowing it to attract investments and offer its employees company stakes. This transformation also enabled key partnerships, most notably with [Microsoft](https://openai.com/blog/openai-and-microsoft-extend-partnership), which invested $1 billion in OpenAI and later announced a substantial $10 billion investment in 2023. These partnerships have been pivotal for OpenAI, particularly in funding and scaling their ambitious projects. According to Sam Altman, there are currently no plans to take OpenAI [public](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-ceo-has-no-ipo-plan-due-strange-company-structure-2023-06-06/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if OpenAI is publicly traded on any stock exchange as of May 31, 2024. This will be determined by official announcements from OpenAI, [stock exchange listings](https://stockanalysis.com/list/biggest-companies/), and [credible financial news](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/company-list/country/united-states) reports. If these sources indicate that OpenAI is not publicly listed and is a private entity as of the specified date, the question will resolve as 'No'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19869, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708972192.428832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.012 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708972192.428832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.012 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02453131175221005 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.817980530801256, 9.544077672956385, 1.210658892197852, 1.0964441054494398, 0.5593481699924325, 0.04245698495697878, 0.8427695862442426, 0.003042197750969866, 0.0, 0.06661175812172797, 0.011724801692639675, 0.2557313358614667, 0.0, 0.001363412961213455, 0.0, 0.07162320665892762, 3.7908322176054495e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005132289007417348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.736212445568014e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006705873811975223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.339312098993801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.650877525621829, "coverage": 0.9995127763120629, "baseline_score": 96.92294501547924, "spot_peer_score": 7.460024386603059, "peer_archived_score": 6.650877525621829, "baseline_archived_score": 96.92294501547924, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.460024386603059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192253.922047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192253.922047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 268, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Founded in 2015 by notable figures like Elon Musk and Sam Altman, OpenAI began as a non-profit organization with a vision to advance AI technology for the benefit of humanity. However, in 2019, OpenAI transitioned to a [\"capped\" for-profit model](https://www.lxahub.com/stories/the-history-of-openai), known as OpenAI LP, allowing it to attract investments and offer its employees company stakes. This transformation also enabled key partnerships, most notably with [Microsoft](https://openai.com/blog/openai-and-microsoft-extend-partnership), which invested $1 billion in OpenAI and later announced a substantial $10 billion investment in 2023. These partnerships have been pivotal for OpenAI, particularly in funding and scaling their ambitious projects. According to Sam Altman, there are currently no plans to take OpenAI [public](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-ceo-has-no-ipo-plan-due-strange-company-structure-2023-06-06/)." }, { "id": 19868, "title": "Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Twitter Public Company in May 2024?", "url_title": "Twitter Public Company in May 2024?", "slug": "twitter-public-company-in-may-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:39:56.766850Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.193411Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:42:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19868, "title": "Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:39:56.766850Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T15:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2022, Elon Musk completed the acquisition of Twitter for [$44 billion](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html), transitioning the company from a public to a [private entity](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/technology/twitter-changes.html#:~:text=Making%20Twitter%20a%20private%20company,tightly%20controlled%20by%20an%20owner.). This change represents a significant shift in the company's structure and governance. Public companies, like Twitter was previously, are subject to strict disclosure requirements and shareholder scrutiny, with their shares traded on public stock exchanges. In contrast, a private company like Twitter under Musk's ownership is not obligated to disclose as much information and its shares are not publicly traded. This transition to a private structure grants Musk more control over the company's operations and strategic direction, allowing for potentially more rapid and significant changes in policies and practices. However, the long-term impact of this privatization on Twitter's operational and financial performance remains to be seen, as it introduces new dynamics in terms of management, debt obligations, and strategic vision implementation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if X (formerly Twitter) is publicly traded on any stock exchange on May 31, 2024. This will be determined by official announcements from X, [stock exchange listings](https://stockanalysis.com/list/biggest-companies/), and [credible financial news](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/company-list/country/united-states) reports. If these sources indicate that X is not publicly listed and is a private entity as of the specified date, the question will resolve as 'No'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19868, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709023061.036494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709023061.036494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01879015205407429 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.592361567949802, 10.736115788429583, 0.744022016360214, 1.106452290456987, 0.10069595327832512, 1.4711456551688158, 0.30760799723447574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038942704965886092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017571177879369575, 0.0, 0.007789257521607357, 0.0015475270301467286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05722492869213147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06116097247640478, 0.0004535844344508773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.12505966204634, "coverage": 0.9993777628607315, "baseline_score": 95.95366418279268, "spot_peer_score": 7.024485381774431, "peer_archived_score": 7.12505966204634, "baseline_archived_score": 95.95366418279268, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.024485381774431 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192514.015367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192514.015367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993822885214937, 0.0006177114785063085 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 248, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2022, Elon Musk completed the acquisition of Twitter for [$44 billion](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html), transitioning the company from a public to a [private entity](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/28/technology/twitter-changes.html#:~:text=Making%20Twitter%20a%20private%20company,tightly%20controlled%20by%20an%20owner.). This change represents a significant shift in the company's structure and governance. Public companies, like Twitter was previously, are subject to strict disclosure requirements and shareholder scrutiny, with their shares traded on public stock exchanges. In contrast, a private company like Twitter under Musk's ownership is not obligated to disclose as much information and its shares are not publicly traded. This transition to a private structure grants Musk more control over the company's operations and strategic direction, allowing for potentially more rapid and significant changes in policies and practices. However, the long-term impact of this privatization on Twitter's operational and financial performance remains to be seen, as it introduces new dynamics in terms of management, debt obligations, and strategic vision implementation." }, { "id": 19867, "title": "Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024?", "url_title": "Musk Chairman Of Twitter in 2024?", "slug": "musk-chairman-of-twitter-in-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:38:49.224212Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.156945Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19867, "title": "Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:38:49.224212Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk, the world’s richest person known for leading companies like SpaceX and Tesla, expanded his portfolio by acquiring Twitter for [$44 billion](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-63402338) in October 2022. Under his leadership, the company underwent significant changes, including a rebranding to \"X\" in July 2023. While Musk initially served as CEO, he transitioned to the roles of Chairman and Chief Technology Officer, passing the [CEO position to Linda Yaccarino in June 2023.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1657050349608501249?lang=en)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if Elon Musk is listed as the chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024 according to the Twitter page on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter). If the Wikipedia page has not been updated by the specified date or if there is a dispute regarding the accuracy of the information, confirmation will be sought from at least two credible and independent national or international news sources. If neither Wikipedia nor news sources confirm Elon Musk's status as chairman by the specified date, the question will resolve as 'No'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19867, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709114914.154837, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.975 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709114914.154837, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.975 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9782119580575168 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017751730710432278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023430504572772284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00041057211391749783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015317656631140828, 0.0, 0.03536334018056532, 0.0026718728115051014, 0.0, 0.00015104103982854685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010033693009389048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017363302970072207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26909855341785494, 0.1762765477969897, 0.24570548703069772, 0.14714489734823605, 0.22507195943126188, 0.03247328232953746, 0.11279470694463979, 1.6373940108252785, 0.13469416736134232, 2.8172729769252314, 0.2632951694919756, 11.967374074162347 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.920282299004919, "coverage": 0.9993163909396663, "baseline_score": 87.79192915739114, "spot_peer_score": 8.054567969014025, "peer_archived_score": 9.920282299004919, "baseline_archived_score": 87.79192915739114, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.054567969014025 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192922.887171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192922.887171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.027672043493753518, 0.9723279565062465 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 245, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elon Musk, the world’s richest person known for leading companies like SpaceX and Tesla, expanded his portfolio by acquiring Twitter for [$44 billion](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-63402338) in October 2022. Under his leadership, the company underwent significant changes, including a rebranding to \"X\" in July 2023. While Musk initially served as CEO, he transitioned to the roles of Chairman and Chief Technology Officer, passing the [CEO position to Linda Yaccarino in June 2023.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1657050349608501249?lang=en)" }, { "id": 19866, "title": "Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Nuclear Whistle-blowers?", "url_title": "Nuclear Whistle-blowers?", "slug": "nuclear-whistle-blowers", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:34:27.656262Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.743630Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T20:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T20:33:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 72, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19866, "title": "Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:34:27.656262Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T20:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-06T20:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-06T20:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nuclear whistle-blowers in the United States have played a crucial role in highlighting safety concerns in the nuclear industry, often at significant personal risk. Beginning with prominent figures like [Karen Silkwood in 1974](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Karen-Silkwood), who raised alarms about health and safety issues at a nuclear fuel plant, the trend continued with the actions of the GE Three in 1976, who exposed safety problems at nuclear power plants. These individuals, along with others like Ronald Goldstein and Arnold Gundersen, faced harsh retaliation including dismissal and harassment. Their disclosures not only brought critical safety issues to public attention but also influenced significant policy and legislative changes, demonstrating the vital role of whistle-blowers in maintaining safety standards in the nuclear sector.\n\nNote that while the background is primarily concerned with US whistleblowers the question being asked is global in scope.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one new entry to the Wikipedia page for [List of nuclear whistle-blowers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_whistleblowers) shows that an individual has gone public between January 1, 2024, and May 31, 2024, or credible sources report that a nuclear whistleblower has gone public in that period.", "fine_print": "* There is no geographic restriction on the whisteblower event, an event meeting all of the criteria will count no matter where it occurs.\n* Any additions to the Wikipedia list must be backed by reporting from credible sources.\n* A qualifying whistleblower report must relate to a nuclear power or nuclear weapons safety or environmental issue. 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"title": "Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T15:33:35.050463Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, 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The process is fraught with stringent regulatory requirements, high financial costs, advanced technological needs, and often public and political scrutiny. These challenges contribute to the rarity of new nuclear projects; for instance, Vogtle Unit 3 was the first new nuclear unit constructed in the U.S. in more than 30 years.\r\nAgainst this backdrop, the progress of Georgia Power Co's Vogtle Unit 4 at Plant Vogtle near Waynesboro, Ga., is significant. [This unit has reached a crucial milestone with the commencement of fuel loading, an essential step towards its start up and commercial operation](https://www.georgiapower.com/company/news-center/2023-articles/vogtle-unit-4-starts-nuclear-fuel-load.html). The successful construction and operation of Vogtle Unit 4, following the recent commissioning of Unit 3, reflect Georgia Power's commitment to expanding nuclear energy. This commitment is underscored by the unit's potential to provide reliable, emissions-free energy to a significant number of homes and businesses. However, the project isn't without its challenges, including managing construction costs, scheduling, and ensuring adherence to safety and regulatory standards.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 is listed as operational on the EIA's monthly update of the [Electric Generator Inventory](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/) on June 1, 2024. If the May report is not published by June 7, 2024, the resolution will be based on the most recent report available. 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The process is fraught with stringent regulatory requirements, high financial costs, advanced technological needs, and often public and political scrutiny. These challenges contribute to the rarity of new nuclear projects; for instance, Vogtle Unit 3 was the first new nuclear unit constructed in the U.S. in more than 30 years.\r\nAgainst this backdrop, the progress of Georgia Power Co's Vogtle Unit 4 at Plant Vogtle near Waynesboro, Ga., is significant. [This unit has reached a crucial milestone with the commencement of fuel loading, an essential step towards its start up and commercial operation](https://www.georgiapower.com/company/news-center/2023-articles/vogtle-unit-4-starts-nuclear-fuel-load.html). The successful construction and operation of Vogtle Unit 4, following the recent commissioning of Unit 3, reflect Georgia Power's commitment to expanding nuclear energy. This commitment is underscored by the unit's potential to provide reliable, emissions-free energy to a significant number of homes and businesses. 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His first year was dominated by efforts to stabilize the UK's economy, grappling with high inflation and the repercussions of Truss’s policies. Sunak focused on [austerity measures and pragmatic policymaking](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rishi-sunak-first-year-prime-minister), including the [Windsor Framework](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-windsor-framework) which improved UK-EU relations, particularly concerning the Northern Ireland protocol. Despite these efforts, challenges such as persistent inflation and political scandals have continued. In terms of internal party dynamics, Sunak's leadership has been a balancing act within the Conservative Party, addressing divergent views and unifying the party ahead of the next [general election](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/), which is scheduled for no later than January 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if Rishi Sunak is listed as the Prime Minister of the UK on the [official government website](https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister) on May 31, 2024. In the event of a discrepancy or delay in the update of the government website, the question will additionally resolve based on real-time reports from at least two reputable and independent national news outlets. These sources must directly confirm Rishi Sunak's status as Prime Minister on the specified date. 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His first year was dominated by efforts to stabilize the UK's economy, grappling with high inflation and the repercussions of Truss’s policies. Sunak focused on [austerity measures and pragmatic policymaking](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rishi-sunak-first-year-prime-minister), including the [Windsor Framework](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-windsor-framework) which improved UK-EU relations, particularly concerning the Northern Ireland protocol. Despite these efforts, challenges such as persistent inflation and political scandals have continued. In terms of internal party dynamics, Sunak's leadership has been a balancing act within the Conservative Party, addressing divergent views and unifying the party ahead of the next [general election](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/), which is scheduled for no later than January 2025." }, { "id": 19850, "title": "Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "Israel War With Neighbors", "url_title": "Israel War With Neighbors", "slug": "israel-war-with-neighbors", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T14:55:03.909052Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.499718Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 135, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19850, "title": "Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T14:55:03.909052Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of [intense conflict and humanitarian crisis](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/28/middleeast/israel-hamas-war-one-month-explainer-mime-intl/index.html#:~:text=The%20conflict%20has%20led%20to,nowhere%20to%20escape%20Israel's%20bombs.), primarily due to the escalating violence between Israel and Hamas. The situation deteriorated significantly following a major terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas militants on October 7, described as the largest terrorist attack in Israel's history. This attack led to over [1,400 fatalities and numerous hostages](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/05/1210641727/israel-war-hamas-latest-updates), prompting a severe military response from Israel. In retaliation, the Israeli military launched an extensive offensive involving air, sea, and ground operations against Gaza. This has included a total siege aimed at curtailing the capabilities of Hamas, the ruling authority in the Gaza Strip. The conflict has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, exacerbating the long-standing difficulties faced by the civilian population in the area.\nIn [previous wars](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war) Israel engaged in warfare with up to five Arab nations. At the moment, however, it is unclear and unlikely that neighbouring Arab countries will join the fighting, having already shown [unwillingness to take refugees](https://apnews.com/article/palestinian-jordan-egypt-israel-refugee-502c06d004767d4b64848d878b66bd3d).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if, on May 31, 2024, any of the nations Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon is engaged in a state of war with Israel, characterized by any of the following being true:\n\n•\tOfficial statements by any of the involved nation's government or military acknowledging a state of war.\n\n•\tOfficial statements by the governments of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council that acknowledge a state of war.\n\nThe primary source for resolution will be the official statements or press releases from the respective governments. If no official or credible report of a state of war is found by June 1, 2024, the question will resolve as 'No'.", "fine_print": "* Whether Hezbollah declares war on Israel does not impact the resolution of this question as only nation states are relevant.\n* Note that this question relies on official government statements, and it may be possible for there to be a substantial number of conflict deaths between Israel and one or more of these countries without either side acknowledging a state of war. In such a situation the question would still resolve as **No**.\n* For the purposes of this question, an official statement will be one made in an official capacity on behalf of the government or a government agency, including in speeches or in response to questions from reporters.\n* A statement referencing an \"act of war\" will generally not be considered to count as a \"state of war\", the statement must more broadly refer to a state of warfare between the militaries of the two nations.\n* In the case of Lebanon, which is [technically still at war with Israel](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/war-decades-lebanon-israel-edge-towards-rare-deal-2022-10-11/), the statements must be in reference to an escalation, continuation, or resumption of the war with Israel and related to combat between the overtly flagged members of each nation's military.", "post_id": 19850, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709168493.186296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.015 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.027 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709168493.186296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.015 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.027 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.985, 0.015 ], "means": [ 0.042211515223732086 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.9784860150792456, 7.779172626417251, 5.242336131384697, 1.4379363810688672, 1.146870859537495, 0.06211891530442049, 0.0, 0.1378945567713785, 0.21883328379980627, 0.5243944472062455, 0.055254238692651836, 0.02217698226906644, 0.0, 0.003941525261707368, 0.0, 0.09228658208689469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005429947567341769, 0.0016241062477104964, 0.0027493797367378, 0.0, 0.007366989724210423, 0.0010883216769238323, 0.0012065737433445013, 0.0004910571515757398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005171820135506307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003064109948486093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002873388365331587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0010458927547488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4448295978029883e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003792584527754642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021512107333080182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006834988728375071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008793088615534723 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.475773220192316, "coverage": 0.9990192946011982, "baseline_score": 93.41707339090969, "spot_peer_score": 16.63503337920815, "peer_archived_score": 13.475773220192316, "baseline_archived_score": 93.41707339090969, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.63503337920815 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192782.223845, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192782.223845, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9963666350223961, 0.0036333649776039653 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 345, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of [intense conflict and humanitarian crisis](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/28/middleeast/israel-hamas-war-one-month-explainer-mime-intl/index.html#:~:text=The%20conflict%20has%20led%20to,nowhere%20to%20escape%20Israel's%20bombs.), primarily due to the escalating violence between Israel and Hamas. The situation deteriorated significantly following a major terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas militants on October 7, described as the largest terrorist attack in Israel's history. This attack led to over [1,400 fatalities and numerous hostages](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/05/1210641727/israel-war-hamas-latest-updates), prompting a severe military response from Israel. In retaliation, the Israeli military launched an extensive offensive involving air, sea, and ground operations against Gaza. This has included a total siege aimed at curtailing the capabilities of Hamas, the ruling authority in the Gaza Strip. The conflict has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, exacerbating the long-standing difficulties faced by the civilian population in the area.\nIn [previous wars](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war) Israel engaged in warfare with up to five Arab nations. 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