Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2980
{ "count": 5974, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3000", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2960", "results": [ { "id": 19849, "title": "Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?", "short_title": "UN Troops In Gaza", "url_title": "UN Troops In Gaza", "slug": "un-troops-in-gaza", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T14:54:04.662436Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.768822Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:57:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2722, "type": "tournament", "name": "Global Pulse Tournament", "slug": "global-pulse", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/gpt-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2023-12-01T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-06-11T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:04:05.578713Z", "edited_at": "2025-08-23T04:20:28.408654Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19849, "title": "Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T14:54:04.662436Z", "open_time": "2023-12-01T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T15:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of [intense conflict and humanitarian crisis](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/28/middleeast/israel-hamas-war-one-month-explainer-mime-intl/index.html#:~:text=The%20conflict%20has%20led%20to,nowhere%20to%20escape%20Israel's%20bombs.) due to the escalating violence between Israel and Hamas. The situation deteriorated significantly following a major terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas militants on October 7, described as the largest terrorist attack in Israel's history. This attack led to [1,200 fatalities and numerous hostages](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/05/1210641727/israel-war-hamas-latest-updates) (Israel initially estimated 1,400 fatalities, later [revised down to around 1,200](https://thehill.com/policy/international/4304838-israeli-death-toll-estimate-down-to-about-1200/)) prompting a severe military response from Israel. In retaliation, the Israeli military launched an extensive offensive involving air, sea, and ground operations against Gaza. This has included a total siege aimed at curtailing the capabilities of Hamas, the ruling authority in the Gaza Strip. The conflict has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, exacerbating the long-standing difficulties faced by the civilian population in the area.\n\nIn light of the crisis, there have been discussions about international interventions to stabilize the situation. One of the [proposed solutions](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/us-and-israel-weigh-peacekeepers-for-the-gaza-strip-after-hamas?leadSource=reddit_wall) is the deployment of a multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza, potentially including troops from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Another option under consideration is placing Gaza under United Nations oversight.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'Yes' if, on May 31, 2024, there is an active United Nations-led peacekeeping operation physically present in the Gaza Strip. For the purposes of this question:\n\n•\tAn 'operation' is defined as any UN-led mission that includes peacekeeping troops, advisors, or observers officially deployed in a capacity recognized by the UN Security Council.\n\n•\tThe presence must be confirmed through an official announcement or mission update on the [UN Peacekeeping: Where We Operate]( https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/where-we-operate) page.\n\n•\tIf the primary source is unavailable or not updated, resolution will be based on official statements from the United Nations or reports by at least two reputable international news organizations.\n\n•\tThe presence of any form of a UN delegation or individual personnel engaged in diplomatic discussions, without an accompanying peacekeeping mandate, does not fulfill the resolution criteria. Neither does the presence of members of the UN Palestine Refugee Agency (UNRWA).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19849, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709171099.467809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709171099.467809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04660607224328855 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7051270165766976, 6.333047797486567, 2.3159939831291814, 1.6080301554720153, 1.105290471105583, 1.385386186361861, 0.5050608987103209, 0.6973904429989002, 0.7201240127344123, 0.027374873087660952, 0.4927361503118578, 0.3978476135895501, 0.02158868385811084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01045508963382006, 0.006737946999085467, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9352119335532367, 0.0081981432990675, 0.0, 0.006090527921295049, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021830841510801758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005282230500139205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007681136336700427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012515466035336708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006398679769312256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025338135663538038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031594436946416338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1628953631576628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014504254020369168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003354626279025118 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.85746771100338, "coverage": 0.9990231601648715, "baseline_score": 80.16299732820731, "spot_peer_score": 11.489967426879641, "peer_archived_score": 15.85746771100338, "baseline_archived_score": 80.16299732820731, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.489967426879641 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709192551.447834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709192551.447834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9985557935249809, 0.001444206475019089 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 287, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of late 2023, the Gaza Strip has been at the centre of [intense conflict and humanitarian crisis](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/28/middleeast/israel-hamas-war-one-month-explainer-mime-intl/index.html#:~:text=The%20conflict%20has%20led%20to,nowhere%20to%20escape%20Israel's%20bombs.) due to the escalating violence between Israel and Hamas. The situation deteriorated significantly following a major terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas militants on October 7, described as the largest terrorist attack in Israel's history. This attack led to [1,200 fatalities and numerous hostages](https://www.npr.org/2023/11/05/1210641727/israel-war-hamas-latest-updates) (Israel initially estimated 1,400 fatalities, later [revised down to around 1,200](https://thehill.com/policy/international/4304838-israeli-death-toll-estimate-down-to-about-1200/)) prompting a severe military response from Israel. In retaliation, the Israeli military launched an extensive offensive involving air, sea, and ground operations against Gaza. This has included a total siege aimed at curtailing the capabilities of Hamas, the ruling authority in the Gaza Strip. The conflict has resulted in a dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, exacerbating the long-standing difficulties faced by the civilian population in the area.\n\nIn light of the crisis, there have been discussions about international interventions to stabilize the situation. One of the [proposed solutions](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/us-and-israel-weigh-peacekeepers-for-the-gaza-strip-after-hamas?leadSource=reddit_wall) is the deployment of a multinational peacekeeping force in Gaza, potentially including troops from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Another option under consideration is placing Gaza under United Nations oversight." }, { "id": 19846, "title": "Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024?", "short_title": "Crompouce sales April 2024", "url_title": "Crompouce sales April 2024", "slug": "crompouce-sales-april-2024", "author_id": 117905, "author_username": "oumeen", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-11T14:05:22.824347Z", "published_at": "2023-11-25T21:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.514743Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-25T21:24:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T20:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T20:14:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-25T21:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19846, "title": "Will Dutch supermarket Albert Heijn still sell crompouces by April 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-11T14:05:22.824347Z", "open_time": "2023-11-25T21:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-28T21:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-28T21:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T20:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-30T20:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Late October 2023, [a new pastry called the _crompouce_](https://nltimes.nl/2023/10/28/tiktok-craze-bakery-crompouce-becomes-new-pastry-sensation) [went viral in The Netherlands](https://www.iamexpat.nl/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/crompouce-croissant-tompouce-hybrid-takes-over-dutch-tiktok). A crompouce is a hybrid between a croissant and the traditional Dutch pastry [tompouce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tompouce). News outlets attribute the hype to TikTok. Many local bakeries jumped in on the hype and started selling crompouces, [as did supermarket chain Albert Heijn](https://www.ah.nl/producten/product/wi567589/ah-crompouce). On the other hand, Hema (one of the most iconic stores that sell the traditional tompouce) started a humorous campaign that rejects the crompouce and advertises their classic tompouce. In [an interview published by newspaper AD on November 5th](https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/crompouce-leidt-tot-weerstand-in-bakkerswereld-je-kunt-overal-wel-room-tussen-stoppen~adee2d7a/), one baker said “I predict the hype is over in a few weeks”.\n\nIs the crompouce a fad, or is it here to stay?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if, on April 30, 2024, crompouces are available for purchase on ah.nl, the website of supermarket Albert Heijn.", "fine_print": "As of November 11, 2023, crompouces are available for sale [at this url](https://www.ah.nl/producten/product/wi567589/ah-crompouce), but the product for sale does not have to be exactly this item as long as it’s still a crompouce. If crompouces are temporarily out of stock but the website lists a date at which they will be available again, the question still resolves positive.", "post_id": 19846, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714458267.442776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714458267.442776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9742824542197015 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.4504289659868941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.399675472730219 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.21623195472091, "coverage": 0.9999159707744778, "baseline_score": 12.324208736490657, "spot_peer_score": 50.44588999748506, "peer_archived_score": 20.21623195472091, "baseline_archived_score": 12.324208736490657, "spot_peer_archived_score": 50.44588999748506 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714463541.032536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714463541.032536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.008068453102919482, 0.9919315468970805 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Late October 2023, [a new pastry called the _crompouce_](https://nltimes.nl/2023/10/28/tiktok-craze-bakery-crompouce-becomes-new-pastry-sensation) [went viral in The Netherlands](https://www.iamexpat.nl/lifestyle/lifestyle-news/crompouce-croissant-tompouce-hybrid-takes-over-dutch-tiktok). A crompouce is a hybrid between a croissant and the traditional Dutch pastry [tompouce](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tompouce). News outlets attribute the hype to TikTok. Many local bakeries jumped in on the hype and started selling crompouces, [as did supermarket chain Albert Heijn](https://www.ah.nl/producten/product/wi567589/ah-crompouce). On the other hand, Hema (one of the most iconic stores that sell the traditional tompouce) started a humorous campaign that rejects the crompouce and advertises their classic tompouce. In [an interview published by newspaper AD on November 5th](https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/crompouce-leidt-tot-weerstand-in-bakkerswereld-je-kunt-overal-wel-room-tussen-stoppen~adee2d7a/), one baker said “I predict the hype is over in a few weeks”.\n\nIs the crompouce a fad, or is it here to stay?" }, { "id": 19824, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?", "short_title": "Netanyahu charged by ICC?", "url_title": "Netanyahu charged by ICC?", "slug": "netanyahu-charged-by-icc", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113121, "username": "AlyssaStevens" }, { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2023-11-09T09:05:58.563734Z", "published_at": "2023-11-17T18:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.952368Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-17T18:46:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T10:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T10:45:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-17T18:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 156, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19824, "title": "Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-11-09T09:05:58.563734Z", "open_time": "2023-11-17T18:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-20T18:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-20T18:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-21T10:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-21T17:58:52.147115Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-21T10:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a [music festival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re%27im_music_festival_massacre), and over 200 hostages were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip.\n\nThe next day on October 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war. Israel responded by bombing Gaza dropping 6,000 bombs in the first 6 days, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in late October. \n\nThe United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has [accused both sides of war crimes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-rights-chief-says-war-crimes-committed-both-sides-israel-hamas-conflict-2023-11-08/#:~:text=Israel%20has%20bombarded%20Gaza%20unrelentingly,including%20many%20women%20and%20children.).\n\n>CAIRO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Wednesday war crimes had been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the conflict that erupted just over a month ago.\n\n>\"The atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October were heinous, they were war crimes - as is the continued holding of hostages,\" Volker Turk said at the Rafah crossing in Egypt on the border with Gaza.\n\n>\"The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians is also a war crime, as is unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians,\" he added.\n\nThe [International Criminal Court](https://www.icc-cpi.int/), headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, is an independent judicial institution empowered to prosecute individuals for international crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It is distinct from the United Nations and does not possess universal jurisdiction, relying instead on the ratification of the [Rome Statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rome_Statute) by individual states, which confers the Court's jurisdiction. Israel is not a member state of the ICC, but the ICC's top prosecutor has [claimed jurisdiction](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-attack-would-fall-under-jurisdiction-war-crimes-court-prosecutor-2023-10-12/#:~:text=THE%20HAGUE%2C%20Netherlands%2C%20Oct%2012,prosecutor%20told%20Reuters%20on%20Thursday.) over any war crimes carrier out in the Gaza conflict, [writing](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/10/law-israel-hamas-international-criminal-court-icc)\n\n> My office has ongoing jurisdiction in relation to any alleged crimes committed on the territory of the State of Palestine by any party. This includes jurisdiction over current events in Gaza and in the West Bank.\n\n> Israel has clear obligations in relation to its war with Hamas: not just moral obligations, but legal obligations that it has to comply with the laws of armed conflict. These laws are clearly outlined in the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions.\n\nOn November 16, 2023, South Africa [referred Israel to the ICC](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africa-refers-israel-icc-gaza-attacks-pressure-104937581). South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said:\n\n> “As South Africa we have accordingly, together with many other countries across the world, referred this whole Israeli government action to the International Criminal Court,\" Ramaphosa said Wednesday during a state visit to Qatar.\n\n> “We have put through a referral because we believe that war crimes are being committed there. And of course we do not condone the actions that were taken by Hamas earlier, but similarly we condemn the actions that are currently underway and believe that they warrant an investigation by the ICC,” he added.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2026, the International Criminal Court brings charges against Benjamin Netanyahu.\n\nPer the [Rome Statute](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf)—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following [categories](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works):\n\n- Genocide\n- Crimes against humanity\n- War crimes\n- Crimes of aggression\n- Offences against the administration of justice\n\nThe ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19824, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732211707.080131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732211707.080131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07499999999999996, 0.925 ], "means": [ 0.8790800867513443 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07774449712040701, 4.7074980302278084e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017434766143881544, 0.0001709829218351658, 0.001382952608793717, 0.0009245724854395341, 0.0006031360346703764, 0.0010245120766277126, 0.0045237333575877765, 0.0, 3.125121709754941e-05, 0.0, 0.3560581398772253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048905903378893376, 0.0398179915755084, 0.0, 0.0019998096118204658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005473069838600212, 0.0, 0.008254631364341123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02041016279740659, 0.0, 0.08126699791406711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046924109925788736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051515659378682604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4948126484673902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19107885880585393, 0.0, 0.20926388919560143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002016491869821532, 0.08538125934943559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012292096901260073, 0.0, 0.0059390538704059016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7700327030539186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6447953124084245, 0.44056640740189007, 0.0, 0.0014637440870943924, 0.0, 1.2726930065125412, 0.1664822825180838, 0.12569883141277888, 0.5906839127083751, 0.0, 2.2130332885518333, 0.7172300208909846, 0.08195718355333372, 0.7473899140559741, 0.9944204519497392, 1.0768764139002995, 0.08968235991409243, 0.3431685529563518, 0.0932617782899404, 0.06653512493152981, 1.275857844877687, 0.1401694256782314, 0.2704691448689393, 0.04177157975503102, 9.827166722410848 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -32.0522359552972, "peer_score": 26.40402066558427, "coverage": 0.4776481464202508, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999960312719135, "spot_peer_score": 64.74230979034657, "baseline_archived_score": -32.0522359552972, "peer_archived_score": 26.40402066558427, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 64.74230979034657 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289080.241858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289080.241858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.18609589319969433, 0.8139041068003057 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 668, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a [music festival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re%27im_music_festival_massacre), and over 200 hostages were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip.\n\nThe next day on October 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war. Israel responded by bombing Gaza dropping 6,000 bombs in the first 6 days, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in late October. \n\nThe United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has [accused both sides of war crimes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-rights-chief-says-war-crimes-committed-both-sides-israel-hamas-conflict-2023-11-08/#:~:text=Israel%20has%20bombarded%20Gaza%20unrelentingly,including%20many%20women%20and%20children.).\n\n>CAIRO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Wednesday war crimes had been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the conflict that erupted just over a month ago.\n\n>\"The atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October were heinous, they were war crimes - as is the continued holding of hostages,\" Volker Turk said at the Rafah crossing in Egypt on the border with Gaza.\n\n>\"The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians is also a war crime, as is unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians,\" he added.\n\nThe [International Criminal Court](https://www.icc-cpi.int/), headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, is an independent judicial institution empowered to prosecute individuals for international crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It is distinct from the United Nations and does not possess universal jurisdiction, relying instead on the ratification of the [Rome Statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rome_Statute) by individual states, which confers the Court's jurisdiction. Israel is not a member state of the ICC, but the ICC's top prosecutor has [claimed jurisdiction](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-attack-would-fall-under-jurisdiction-war-crimes-court-prosecutor-2023-10-12/#:~:text=THE%20HAGUE%2C%20Netherlands%2C%20Oct%2012,prosecutor%20told%20Reuters%20on%20Thursday.) over any war crimes carrier out in the Gaza conflict, [writing](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/10/law-israel-hamas-international-criminal-court-icc)\n\n> My office has ongoing jurisdiction in relation to any alleged crimes committed on the territory of the State of Palestine by any party. This includes jurisdiction over current events in Gaza and in the West Bank.\n\n> Israel has clear obligations in relation to its war with Hamas: not just moral obligations, but legal obligations that it has to comply with the laws of armed conflict. These laws are clearly outlined in the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions.\n\nOn November 16, 2023, South Africa [referred Israel to the ICC](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africa-refers-israel-icc-gaza-attacks-pressure-104937581). South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said:\n\n> “As South Africa we have accordingly, together with many other countries across the world, referred this whole Israeli government action to the International Criminal Court,\" Ramaphosa said Wednesday during a state visit to Qatar.\n\n> “We have put through a referral because we believe that war crimes are being committed there. And of course we do not condone the actions that were taken by Hamas earlier, but similarly we condemn the actions that are currently underway and believe that they warrant an investigation by the ICC,” he added." }, { "id": 19810, "title": "Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?", "short_title": "Israel White Phosphorus Improper Use by 2025?", "url_title": "Israel White Phosphorus Improper Use by 2025?", "slug": "israel-white-phosphorus-improper-use-by-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111743, "username": "NathanpmYoung" } ], "created_at": "2023-11-06T15:51:27.025828Z", "published_at": "2023-11-07T15:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.021656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-07T15:56:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-10T00:35:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-07T15:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 121, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19810, "title": "Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?", "created_at": "2023-11-06T15:51:27.025828Z", "open_time": "2023-11-07T15:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-08T12:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-08T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-10T00:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T00:43:03.459472Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October 7 attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel) on Israel by Hamas. According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/):\n\n>Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under international law — but it is not banned. Phosphorus is not classed as a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention.\n>\n>When used as a weapon, it can cause fire to rain down on targets, inflicting indiscriminate damage. It is illegal, therefore, for phosphorus to be used near civilians, because international law requires that combatants distinguish between civilian and military elements.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any three of the following government or media sources conclude that Israel has used white phosphorus in an illegal or improper manner any time after October 7, 2023:\n\n* The United Kingdom\n* The United States\n* France\n* Germany\n* Japan\n* South Korea\n* Israel\n* The United Nations\n* The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)\n* Reports published by one of the following sources and based on independent investigations conducted by the same source or commissioned by the same source each also count as one qualifying report\n * BBC\n * The Guardian\n * AP\n * Reuters\n\nThe use of white phosphorus must be explicitly stated by these sources, including an assertion that the use was improper or illegal, and the reported use must occur within the stated timeframe. Negative statements do not in themselves resolve this question as **No**. The question will resolve as **No** if no such use is reported by the deadline. Any use reported after the deadline will not count towards the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "* Statements must be conclusive. For example a statement must use language such as \"we have concluded that Israel used white phosphorus improperly\" or \"we have proof that Israel used white phosphorus in an illegal manner\". Statements such as \"we think it is likely that Israel used white phosphorus improperly\" or \"Israel may have used white phosphorus improperly\" or any other statements expressing uncertainty will **not** qualify.\n* Concluding that white phosphorus was used in an illegal or improper manner will be taken as any statement generally condemning the use, which may or may not include assertions that the use violated international law. A statement such as \"Israel's use of white phosphorus was reckless and harmful\" would be considered to meet this requirement.\n* Opinion pieces published by the listed media sources do not count, even if they reference or endorse a qualifying independent investigation.\n* Leaks, anonymous statements, and other non-public statements will not qualify.\n* Metaculus may make a determination in the event there is ambiguity about whether a statement satisfies these criteria.", "post_id": 19810, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671478.706901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671478.706901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04016352934547359 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.8882146913517, 4.93873413161675, 0.03714452074368754, 0.9839842112176653, 0.044647035774518465, 0.854191620063427, 0.21699508076402127, 0.08352892153066463, 0.00013520585154472867, 0.10674960836229877, 0.3565142534798275, 0.0, 0.011938683744747294, 0.07411863812031651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005717924048220845, 0.006233855858162013, 0.020066327556907168, 0.8835591631660477, 0.0, 0.04808888351073279, 0.0, 0.051228555313319275, 0.004162868954993791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001788932117281614, 0.023114765047599694, 0.0, 0.030424300615435034, 0.0, 0.005237778268384932, 0.0008798767048542106, 0.0003095827948788816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043228111401378617, 0.0, 0.01390561541236602, 0.2288402807874698, 0.0, 0.0033042039668223586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005845837517301532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029857554535104988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11248788487522013, 0.004376584997741002, 0.24804800361957657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030372787462094823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016018818900152732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001992637073746351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021960102386289263 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.7376521440547, "peer_score": 51.726709806315505, "coverage": 0.9999839277591419, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999839277591419, "spot_peer_score": 68.6231897288932, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 87.7376521440547, "peer_archived_score": 51.726709806315505, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 68.6231897288932, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288026.933683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288026.933683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994467212467225, 0.0005532787532775014 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 351, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October 7 attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel) on Israel by Hamas. According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/):\n\n>Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under international law — but it is not banned. Phosphorus is not classed as a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention.\n>\n>When used as a weapon, it can cause fire to rain down on targets, inflicting indiscriminate damage. It is illegal, therefore, for phosphorus to be used near civilians, because international law requires that combatants distinguish between civilian and military elements." }, { "id": 19776, "title": "Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030?", "short_title": "Russell Rickford out of Cornell before 2030", "url_title": "Russell Rickford out of Cornell before 2030", "slug": "russell-rickford-out-of-cornell-before-2030", "author_id": 118874, "author_username": "stanulamstan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-03T02:00:01.588525Z", "published_at": "2023-11-11T00:49:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.339475Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-11T00:49:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-11T00:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19776, "title": "Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-11-03T02:00:01.588525Z", "open_time": "2023-11-11T00:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-14T00:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-14T00:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Cornell professor [Russell Rickford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_J._Rickford) referred to the October 7 attacks on Israel as [exhilirating](https://www.nationalreview.com/news/cornell-professor-takes-leave-of-absence-after-calling-hamas-attacks-exhilarating-and-energizing/). Subsequently, nearly 5000 members of the Cornell University community [demanded](https://archive.ph/1jK3T) that Rickford be fired. A [petition](https://www.change.org/p/demand-cornell-university-to-terminate-associate-professor-russell-for-hate-speech) to fire him gathered thousands of signatures. Rickford has taken a leave of absence. Cornell is [committed](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) to protecting academic freedom. The [Faculty Statement on Academic Freedom and Responsibility](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) states:\n\n>Academic Freedom for the Faculty means: Freedom of expression in the classroom on matters relevant to the subject and the purpose of the course and of choice of methods in classroom teaching; from direction and restraint in scholarship, research, and creative expression and in the discussion and publication of the results thereof; to speak and write as a citizen without institutional censorship or discipline. . . \n\n>Academic freedom is valued very highly at Cornell, and the University Faculty defends it tenaciously; nevertheless, the same University Faculty is disinclined to see the concept abused. Academic freedom does not imply immunity from prosecution for illegal acts of wrongdoing, nor does it provide license for faculty members to do whatever they choose.\n\nIn recent years, there has been significant controversy around free speech and academic freedom in the Ivy League, especially around the free speech of centrist and right-leaning professors. [Amy Wax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Wax) has [come](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/us/upenn-law-professor-racism-freedom-speech.html) [under fire](https://quillette.com/2023/03/06/amy-wax-and-academic-freedom/) for remarks that some people have perceived as racist, and the dean of Penn law has started a [faculty review process](https://archive.is/www.inquirer.com/news/amy-wax-penn-law-sanctions-20220118.html) that could lead to sanctions against her. [Joshua Katz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_Katz_(classicist)) was [fired](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/us/princeton-fires-joshua-katz.html) by Princeton for a consensual relationship he had with a student in the mid-2000s, though many [suspect](https://quillette.com/2022/05/26/the-firing-of-joshua-t-katz/) the true cause is an [article](https://quillette.com/2020/07/08/a-declaration-of-independence-by-a-princeton-professor/) he wrote in Quillette.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Cornell officially announces before January 1st, 2030, (such as through its website, its communication team, or its leadership) that Russell Rickford is no longer a faculty member at Cornell or if credible sources report that Rickford is no longer a faculty member at Cornell.\n\nImportant to note: a leave of absence, whether paid or unpaid, would not trigger a positive resolution of the question.", "fine_print": "If Cornell ceases to exist on or before 1 January 2030, then the question will resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 19776, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758181876.245646, "end_time": 1758689885.535126, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758181876.245646, "end_time": 1758689885.535126, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.4190857013741717 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.503214724408055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.486194822182886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287529.586453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287529.586453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5288631559696336, 0.4711368440303664 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Cornell professor [Russell Rickford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_J._Rickford) referred to the October 7 attacks on Israel as [exhilirating](https://www.nationalreview.com/news/cornell-professor-takes-leave-of-absence-after-calling-hamas-attacks-exhilarating-and-energizing/). Subsequently, nearly 5000 members of the Cornell University community [demanded](https://archive.ph/1jK3T) that Rickford be fired. A [petition](https://www.change.org/p/demand-cornell-university-to-terminate-associate-professor-russell-for-hate-speech) to fire him gathered thousands of signatures. Rickford has taken a leave of absence. Cornell is [committed](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) to protecting academic freedom. The [Faculty Statement on Academic Freedom and Responsibility](https://theuniversityfaculty.cornell.edu/the-new-faculty-handbook/statement-on-academic-freedom-and-freedom-of-speech-and-expression/) states:\n\n>Academic Freedom for the Faculty means: Freedom of expression in the classroom on matters relevant to the subject and the purpose of the course and of choice of methods in classroom teaching; from direction and restraint in scholarship, research, and creative expression and in the discussion and publication of the results thereof; to speak and write as a citizen without institutional censorship or discipline. . . \n\n>Academic freedom is valued very highly at Cornell, and the University Faculty defends it tenaciously; nevertheless, the same University Faculty is disinclined to see the concept abused. Academic freedom does not imply immunity from prosecution for illegal acts of wrongdoing, nor does it provide license for faculty members to do whatever they choose.\n\nIn recent years, there has been significant controversy around free speech and academic freedom in the Ivy League, especially around the free speech of centrist and right-leaning professors. [Amy Wax](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Wax) has [come](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/us/upenn-law-professor-racism-freedom-speech.html) [under fire](https://quillette.com/2023/03/06/amy-wax-and-academic-freedom/) for remarks that some people have perceived as racist, and the dean of Penn law has started a [faculty review process](https://archive.is/www.inquirer.com/news/amy-wax-penn-law-sanctions-20220118.html) that could lead to sanctions against her. [Joshua Katz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_Katz_(classicist)) was [fired](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/23/us/princeton-fires-joshua-katz.html) by Princeton for a consensual relationship he had with a student in the mid-2000s, though many [suspect](https://quillette.com/2022/05/26/the-firing-of-joshua-t-katz/) the true cause is an [article](https://quillette.com/2020/07/08/a-declaration-of-independence-by-a-princeton-professor/) he wrote in Quillette." }, { "id": 19775, "title": "Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus?", "short_title": "Israel White Phosphorus Use Before 2025?", "url_title": "Israel White Phosphorus Use Before 2025?", "slug": "israel-white-phosphorus-use-before-2025", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-02T13:41:17.462607Z", "published_at": "2023-11-02T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.637639Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-02T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T15:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19775, "title": "Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus?", "created_at": "2023-11-02T13:41:17.462607Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-03T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T15:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-06T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T15:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October 7 attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel) on Israel by Hamas. According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/):\n\n>Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under international law — but it is not banned. Phosphorus is not classed as a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention.\n>\n>When used as a weapon, it can cause fire to rain down on targets, inflicting indiscriminate damage. It is illegal, therefore, for phosphorus to be used near civilians, because international law requires that combatants distinguish between civilian and military elements.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any three of the following government or media sources conclude that Israel has used white phosphorus any time after October 7, 2023:\n\n* The United Kingdom\n* The United States\n* France\n* Germany\n* Japan\n* South Korea\n* Israel\n* The United Nations\n* The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)\n* Reports published by one of the following sources and based on independent investigations conducted by the same source each also count as one qualifying report\n * BBC\n * The Guardian\n * AP\n * Reuters\n\nThe use of white phosphorus must be explicitly stated by these sources, and the reported use must occur within the stated timeframe. Negative statements do not in themselves resolve this question as **No**. The question will resolve as **No** if no such use is reported by the deadline. Any use reported after the deadline will not count towards the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "* Statements must be conclusive. For example a statement must use language such as \"we have concluded that Israel used chemical weapons\" or \"we have proof that Israel used chemical weapons\". Statements such as \"we think it is likely that Israel used chemical weapons\" or \"Israel may have used chemical weapons\" or any other statements expressing uncertainty will **not** qualify.\n* Leaks, anonymous statements, and other non-public statements will not qualify.\n* Metaculus may make a determination in the event there is ambiguity about whether a statement satisfies these criteria.", "post_id": 19775, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699282558.015339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699282558.015339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5403184604185164 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05224102104996991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1387803475283947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6220865835985105, 0.422773645711402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12426951433661654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0200067169715049, 0.0, 0.5076216596075528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03353515913390628, 0.0, 0.777009513984749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08552645092262164, 0.0, 1.7229039360080076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06825837252413955, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4982966207386803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15458320800495146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5726740774817343, 0.4087635135272165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5265764566181663, 0.681359841032652, 0.0, 1.003858647581822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028511763448086522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05985794318764461, 0.0, 0.32164011524324393, 0.25633089729369585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09878615287055517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7922460993238396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6340127494467535 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699282558.015339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699282558.015339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7297851478375568, 0.2702148521624433 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There have been [several](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-says-israel-used-white-phosphorous-gaza-lebanon-2023-10-12/) [accusations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-lebanon-white-phosphorus-war-5aebf0cc8d587951a718cefe329bc8b3) of Israel using white phosphorus following the [October 7 attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel) on Israel by Hamas. According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-white-phosphorus-russia-ukraine/):\n\n>Because of its incendiary effects, the use of phosphorus in war is supposed to be tightly regulated under international law — but it is not banned. Phosphorus is not classed as a chemical weapon under the Chemical Weapons Convention.\n>\n>When used as a weapon, it can cause fire to rain down on targets, inflicting indiscriminate damage. It is illegal, therefore, for phosphorus to be used near civilians, because international law requires that combatants distinguish between civilian and military elements." }, { "id": 19767, "title": "Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?", "short_title": "US aircraft carrier sunk before 2030?", "url_title": "US aircraft carrier sunk before 2030?", "slug": "us-aircraft-carrier-sunk-before-2030", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111743, "username": "NathanpmYoung" }, { "id": 130846, "username": "ForkLeaf" } ], "created_at": "2023-11-01T23:21:52.245908Z", "published_at": "2023-11-10T23:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:01:19.815093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-10T23:15:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-10T23:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19767, "title": "Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-11-01T23:21:52.245908Z", "open_time": "2023-11-10T23:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-13T23:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-13T23:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers) an American aircraft carrier was sunk in combat was at the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Despite this, [much speculation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/?sh=68e60f712a37) exists on the possibility of American aircraft carriers being destroyed in conflicts with adversaries such as China, Russia, or Iran.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action. This question pertains to the [carrier vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_the_United_States_Navy) (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as [LHD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing_helicopter_dock)'s).", "fine_print": "* Any new or existing CV variant, as classified by the US, will be considered for this question.\n* Enemy military action will be considered to be any combative action from an opposing belligerent or combatant force, including terrorism and non-human action.", "post_id": 19767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758492069.26061, "end_time": 1758554771.40062, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758492069.26061, "end_time": 1758554771.40062, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09818604222016972 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.24207219377702496, 0.48399057750515445, 0.8479227856688845, 2.1722860395367967, 0.7471400545026624, 0.9001326195582511, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.9090545283477725, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.10111441089353605, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289588.483575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289588.483575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9909506445971563, 0.009049355402843672 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers) an American aircraft carrier was sunk in combat was at the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Despite this, [much speculation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/?sh=68e60f712a37) exists on the possibility of American aircraft carriers being destroyed in conflicts with adversaries such as China, Russia, or Iran." }, { "id": 19765, "title": "Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Donald Trump Jailed Before 2024?", "url_title": "Donald Trump Jailed Before 2024?", "slug": "donald-trump-jailed-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-01T22:23:50.310151Z", "published_at": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.557852Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump is facing [four indictments](https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/07/politics/trump-indictments-criminal-cases/) (in [New York, Florida, Washington DC, and Georgia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictments_against_Donald_Trump)) as well as a [civil case in New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_civil_investigation_of_The_Trump_Organization).\n\nIn the New York civil case, Trump was fined twice, first for $5,000 [on October 20](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/20/trump-threatened-with-prison-for-violating-gag-order.html) and then again for $10,000 [on October 25](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-fined-10000-over-comment-about-judges-staff-in-new-york-civil-fraud-trial), for violating a gag order against commenting publicly about Judge Arthur Engoron's staff.\n\nTrump was also subject to a gag order imposed in the DC case by Judge Tanya Chutkan on October 16th against commenting about court staff, prosecutors, or witnesses. That gag order was lifted on October 20th after Trump appealed, but was [reinstated on October 29th](https://www.yahoo.com/news/federal-judge-revives-donald-trump-124156833.html).\n\nFollowing the reinstatement, Ty Cobb, former White House lawyer during Trump's presidency, [said](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-violate-gag-order-jail-ty-cobb-1839408):\n\n>Well, the New York judge fined him $10,000. That’s in a civil case. That’s not as consequential as Judge Chutkan’s case. . . I think she’ll come in with a much heavier penalty, and ultimately, I think he’ll spend a night or a weekend in jail.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Donald Trump has been confined to a jail or prison cell for at least one hour as a result of court proceedings.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19765, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034170.140014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034170.140014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.10496160088035561 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.680471812393105, 8.906033633676657, 0.023208204925847006, 0.0030558227494655605, 0.012955591556190294, 0.26273722652241055, 0.04788968964425062, 0.00012817962046912263, 0.005537830714382473, 0.010235060515970255, 0.007766273478005015, 0.0, 3.0667569021157886e-05, 7.647058950878276e-05, 0.0, 0.16874131330251363, 0.0, 0.004123281004336947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005249468073591107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.076579913514921e-05, 0.00017334026632215358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402100083180224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.920571069135066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8830657200702908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01031123483296608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9595319366703575 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.1690769697106695, "coverage": 0.9999871093205894, "baseline_score": 94.43064240885221, "spot_peer_score": 9.381093140792752, "peer_archived_score": 5.1690769697106695, "baseline_archived_score": 94.43064240885221, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.381093140792752 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034170.172768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034170.172768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 534, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump is facing [four indictments](https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/07/politics/trump-indictments-criminal-cases/) (in [New York, Florida, Washington DC, and Georgia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictments_against_Donald_Trump)) as well as a [civil case in New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_civil_investigation_of_The_Trump_Organization).\n\nIn the New York civil case, Trump was fined twice, first for $5,000 [on October 20](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/20/trump-threatened-with-prison-for-violating-gag-order.html) and then again for $10,000 [on October 25](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-fined-10000-over-comment-about-judges-staff-in-new-york-civil-fraud-trial), for violating a gag order against commenting publicly about Judge Arthur Engoron's staff.\n\nTrump was also subject to a gag order imposed in the DC case by Judge Tanya Chutkan on October 16th against commenting about court staff, prosecutors, or witnesses. That gag order was lifted on October 20th after Trump appealed, but was [reinstated on October 29th](https://www.yahoo.com/news/federal-judge-revives-donald-trump-124156833.html).\n\nFollowing the reinstatement, Ty Cobb, former White House lawyer during Trump's presidency, [said](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-violate-gag-order-jail-ty-cobb-1839408):\n\n>Well, the New York judge fined him $10,000. That’s in a civil case. That’s not as consequential as Judge Chutkan’s case. . . I think she’ll come in with a much heavier penalty, and ultimately, I think he’ll spend a night or a weekend in jail." }, { "id": 19764, "title": "Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Second Starship Integrated Test Before 2024?", "url_title": "Second Starship Integrated Test Before 2024?", "slug": "second-starship-integrated-test-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-01T21:34:54.112111Z", "published_at": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.695195Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-18T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-18T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19764, "title": "Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-01T21:34:54.112111Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-05T14:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-05T14:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-18T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-18T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-18T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starship-explosion-spread-particulate-matter-for-miles.html) and the launch produced significant debris and particulate matter that led to concerns of the potential impact on the surrounding environment and community.\n\nIn response, the [Federal Aviation Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Administration) (FAA) conducted a mishap investigation, a safety review, and an environmental review. The mishap investigation [ended on September 8, requiring 63 corrective actions](https://spacenews.com/faa-closes-starship-mishap-investigation-directs-63-corrective-actions-for-spacex/), and the safety investigation [concluded on October 31](https://www.space.com/faa-finishes-spacex-starship-safety-review). However, the environmental review is still pending. [According to space.com](https://www.space.com/faa-finishes-spacex-starship-safety-review), the FAA stated:\n\n>The FAA is continuing to work on the environmental review. As part of its environmental review, the FAA is consulting with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) on an updated Biological Assessment under the Endangered Species Act. The FAA and the USFWS must complete this consultation before the environmental review portion of the license evaluation is completed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the second Starship integrated flight test occurs and Starship leaves the launchpad intact and under its own power.", "fine_print": "An integrated flight test requires the Starship spacecraft to be stacked on top of the [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) with both launched together.", "post_id": 19764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700313406.59026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.992 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700313406.59026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.992 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9387378524870454 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006398679769312256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003390634142220875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018674127829225928, 0.0, 0.0012515466035336708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005258417441048667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004943981799439977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02340040377087851, 0.0014504254020369168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0014080061372469769, 0.01085885475966403, 0.0, 0.0029268881275595258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6691934140160116, 0.8321391740211248, 0.24717103491016296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013691759911577103, 0.0, 0.005888885413401084, 0.0038538908356389482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27742570457074694, 0.0, 1.278936911424331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4712589218247873, 0.02027741262671457, 0.0, 0.0007681136336700427, 0.12466810736537795, 1.5389559686831045, 1.0348307656735622, 0.514666925273071, 0.019895982148904024, 10.39262239900967 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.098316017524141, "coverage": 0.2682290678983379, "baseline_score": 16.22641886620459, "spot_peer_score": 44.320878597171905, "peer_archived_score": 6.098316017524141, "baseline_archived_score": 16.22641886620459, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.320878597171905 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700307149.92773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700307149.92773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.044261692599067204, 0.9557383074009328 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 331, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starship-explosion-spread-particulate-matter-for-miles.html) and the launch produced significant debris and particulate matter that led to concerns of the potential impact on the surrounding environment and community.\n\nIn response, the [Federal Aviation Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Administration) (FAA) conducted a mishap investigation, a safety review, and an environmental review. The mishap investigation [ended on September 8, requiring 63 corrective actions](https://spacenews.com/faa-closes-starship-mishap-investigation-directs-63-corrective-actions-for-spacex/), and the safety investigation [concluded on October 31](https://www.space.com/faa-finishes-spacex-starship-safety-review). However, the environmental review is still pending. [According to space.com](https://www.space.com/faa-finishes-spacex-starship-safety-review), the FAA stated:\n\n>The FAA is continuing to work on the environmental review. As part of its environmental review, the FAA is consulting with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) on an updated Biological Assessment under the Endangered Species Act. The FAA and the USFWS must complete this consultation before the environmental review portion of the license evaluation is completed." }, { "id": 19754, "title": "Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?", "short_title": "VAT reduction of German plant-based milk?", "url_title": "VAT reduction of German plant-based milk?", "slug": "vat-reduction-of-german-plant-based-milk", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-01T13:32:21.507474Z", "published_at": "2023-12-12T21:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.868286Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-12T21:24:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T16:28:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-12T21:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:42:40.967116Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:42:40.967116Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19754, "title": "Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-01T13:32:21.507474Z", "open_time": "2023-12-12T21:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-15T21:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-15T21:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T16:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T16:36:11.390180Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Most basic foods in Germany are only taxed by 7% VAT. Plant-based milk is currently taxed at the default 19%. [Recently, the Green party and the governing SPD talked about reducing the VAT for plant-based milks.](https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/verbraucher/mehrwertsteuer-milchersatzprodukte-100.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** based on credible reports that the German government has reduced the VAT rate for plant-based milks to the same VAT that is used for cow's milk, which is currently 7%. This change must be announced an implemented before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "- In order for the question to resolve Yes, the change must be implemented. If it is only announced, the question resolves **No**.\n- The VAT of plant-based milk must be reduced from the current 19% for a Yes resolution.", "post_id": 19754, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735653775.308922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735653775.308922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.994, 0.006 ], "means": [ 0.017189999614026407 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.2144806792157805, 1.737967589575487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1636796789713562, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.74196821880011, "peer_score": 1.9184815530374555, "coverage": 0.9996514498991581, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996514498991581, "spot_peer_score": 0.2774123815303614, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 82.74196821880011, "peer_archived_score": 1.9184815530374555, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.2774123815303614, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287158.68092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287158.68092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9888387503574907, 0.011161249642509292 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Most basic foods in Germany are only taxed by 7% VAT. Plant-based milk is currently taxed at the default 19%. [Recently, the Green party and the governing SPD talked about reducing the VAT for plant-based milks.](https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/verbraucher/mehrwertsteuer-milchersatzprodukte-100.html)" }, { "id": 19741, "title": "Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?", "short_title": "Senegal's Macky Sall Out at End of Term?", "url_title": "Senegal's Macky Sall Out at End of Term?", "slug": "senegals-macky-sall-out-at-end-of-term", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-31T06:28:37.043889Z", "published_at": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.966385Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-02T18:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", 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"2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-02T18:28:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Senegal was [scheduled to hold presidential elections on February 25, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Senegalese_presidential_election), but on February 5 Senegalese President [Macky Sall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macky_Sall) announced that the elections would be [delayed until December](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/05/africa/senegal-parliament-debates-extending-presidents-mandate-intl/index.html). The delayed vote has led to [protests and unrest](https://news.yahoo.com/ahead-planned-march-over-vote-122105603.html), as well as a state crackdown against the protests.\n\nSall's term is scheduled to end on April 2, 2024, and the delayed elections have [led to uncertainty regarding whether Sall will respect the term limit](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68253255).\n\nSenegal is in the geographical region of Africa that has seen a high rate of coups the past three years. Despite this, Senegal had previously maintained some stability and helped coordinate responses against coups elsewhere in the region.\n\nYet when Sall was [interviewed by *The Economist*](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/10/26/senegals-president-asks-if-democracy-can-work-in-africas-coup-belt) in October 2023 he asked,\n\n> \"Is democracy as we want to do it really suitable?\"\n\nPreviously there had been a damaging fight between the incumbent president and an opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko. The Economist wrote,\n\n> The fight centres around the question of whether Senegal’s government is trying to tilt the election by using the courts to keep Mr Sonko off the ballot.\n\nThis has involved accusations of rape (acquitted), corruption of youth (convicted), plotting an insurrection (still active). The opposition claims this is repeating a pattern from 2019 when the opposition was also barred from running due to criminal convictions. The incumbent president denies this.\n\n> The charge and conviction sparked large protests, some of them violent, in support of Mr Sonko. The demonstrations were also fuelled by hints from Mr Sall that he might try to run for a third presidential term, even though Senegal’s constitution has a two-term limit. It was only in July that Mr Sall definitively said he would not seek office again, after more than two years of protests and at least 37 deaths, according to Amnesty International, a rights group.\n\n> Mr Sall’s announcement led to a lull in the violence, though it lasted less than a month until Mr Sonko was once more arrested. The government also dissolved his political party, Pastef, and arrested many of its leaders, including several mayors. As protests flared, the government cut mobile-internet access for almost a week.\n\nThere seems to be insecurities around how peaceful Senegal's democracy really is:\n\n> Many fear more violence before the election, especially if Mr Sonko is definitively barred from running. Even Mr Sall prevaricates when asked if he expects the election to be peaceful. [...] Mr Sall bristles at the suggestion there has been a backsliding of democracy on his watch. “Those who say that [there has been] are supporters of anarchy and chaos,” he retorts. “Senegal has no lessons in democracy to learn from anyone.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 4, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Macky Sall has stepped down from the office of president of Senegal.", "fine_print": "* This question requires Sall to acknowledge the end of his presidency or to otherwise comply with the end of his presidency, and will resolve as **No** if Sall's seat or power is contested for any reason but he has refused to step down. This includes cases where Sall is arrested or flees the country but does not relinquish his claim to the presidency, in those cases the question would resolve as **No**.\n* This question asks whether Macky Sall will step down before April 4, 2024, and will still resolve as **No** if a law is enacted that extends the end of his term and he remains president of Senegal on April 4, 2024.\n* If Sall steps down as president but announces before April 4, 2024, that he will continue on as interim or caretake president, or a similar position, and holds that position through April 4, it will not count as having stepped down and the question will resolve as **No**.\n* To resolve as **Yes** there must be credible reports published before April 4, 2024, that state that Sall is complying with the end of his term. If the available reporting indicates that Sall has remained silent or has otherwise not confirmed or complied with the end of his term the question will resolve as **No**.\n* If Sall dies the question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* If the circumstances are difficult to discern or reports conflict, Metaculus may use the available information to make a determination or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 19741, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712165902.032957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712165902.032957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9652156199510501 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.010790073396447676, 0.000560044871523829, 0.0, 0.00026933773180300467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11666173967363361, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20113652926608147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002128626123411258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004075565365447296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011476318570691885, 0.0, 0.0016763820783180668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009270746381897505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031655044817970844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040872411115659646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0494573638147553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019882322637170463, 0.17086522415145955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11293714585221006, 0.02528200442990483, 0.0068953792186266984, 0.0, 0.06730658058907446, 1.6010988965224346, 0.0, 1.548455513231336, 0.5710703272953515, 12.390737958818871 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 43.003688916210955, "coverage": 0.9762311147463006, "baseline_score": 66.5510547862016, "spot_peer_score": 28.403756691048912, "peer_archived_score": 43.003688916210955, "baseline_archived_score": 66.5510547862016, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.403756691048912 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712046105.785391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712046105.785391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01924010621872152, 0.9807598937812785 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 404, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Senegal was [scheduled to hold presidential elections on February 25, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Senegalese_presidential_election), but on February 5 Senegalese President [Macky Sall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macky_Sall) announced that the elections would be [delayed until December](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/05/africa/senegal-parliament-debates-extending-presidents-mandate-intl/index.html). The delayed vote has led to [protests and unrest](https://news.yahoo.com/ahead-planned-march-over-vote-122105603.html), as well as a state crackdown against the protests.\n\nSall's term is scheduled to end on April 2, 2024, and the delayed elections have [led to uncertainty regarding whether Sall will respect the term limit](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68253255).\n\nSenegal is in the geographical region of Africa that has seen a high rate of coups the past three years. Despite this, Senegal had previously maintained some stability and helped coordinate responses against coups elsewhere in the region.\n\nYet when Sall was [interviewed by *The Economist*](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/10/26/senegals-president-asks-if-democracy-can-work-in-africas-coup-belt) in October 2023 he asked,\n\n> \"Is democracy as we want to do it really suitable?\"\n\nPreviously there had been a damaging fight between the incumbent president and an opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko. The Economist wrote,\n\n> The fight centres around the question of whether Senegal’s government is trying to tilt the election by using the courts to keep Mr Sonko off the ballot.\n\nThis has involved accusations of rape (acquitted), corruption of youth (convicted), plotting an insurrection (still active). The opposition claims this is repeating a pattern from 2019 when the opposition was also barred from running due to criminal convictions. The incumbent president denies this.\n\n> The charge and conviction sparked large protests, some of them violent, in support of Mr Sonko. The demonstrations were also fuelled by hints from Mr Sall that he might try to run for a third presidential term, even though Senegal’s constitution has a two-term limit. It was only in July that Mr Sall definitively said he would not seek office again, after more than two years of protests and at least 37 deaths, according to Amnesty International, a rights group.\n\n> Mr Sall’s announcement led to a lull in the violence, though it lasted less than a month until Mr Sonko was once more arrested. The government also dissolved his political party, Pastef, and arrested many of its leaders, including several mayors. As protests flared, the government cut mobile-internet access for almost a week.\n\nThere seems to be insecurities around how peaceful Senegal's democracy really is:\n\n> Many fear more violence before the election, especially if Mr Sonko is definitively barred from running. Even Mr Sall prevaricates when asked if he expects the election to be peaceful. [...] Mr Sall bristles at the suggestion there has been a backsliding of democracy on his watch. “Those who say that [there has been] are supporters of anarchy and chaos,” he retorts. “Senegal has no lessons in democracy to learn from anyone.”" }, { "id": 19724, "title": "Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Russia Expanded Territory in Ukraine in 2026?", "url_title": "Russia Expanded Territory in Ukraine in 2026?", "slug": "russia-expanded-territory-in-ukraine-in-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-30T19:16:42.970333Z", "published_at": "2023-11-02T19:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T08:44:43.194396Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-02T19:14:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-02T19:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 422, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19724, "title": "Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2023-10-30T19:16:42.970333Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T19:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-03T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-has-been-slow-but-western-support-remains-strong--even-with-new-war-in-middle-east-215707295.html), and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1gg5PBOaPGAuOjX5kCafOgNIBMWW-ZdI&ehbc=2E312F\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2026, Russia has de facto control of specific key locations which it currently controls as of October 30, 2023, and also controls two or more additional specified locations that it currently does not. Resolution will be determined according to maps produced by the [Institute for the Study of War](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap) (ISW). The relevant locations are listed below, and also shown in a map embedded in the background section.\n\nRussia must have control of **at least two** of the following locations:\n\n* Mikolaiv: Admiralska St, 20, Mykolaiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine, 54000\n* Zaporizhzhia: Sobornyi Ave, 206, Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhia Oblast\n* Kharkiv: Konstytutsii Square, 7, Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, 61000\n* Odesa: Dums'ka Square, 1, Odesa, Odesa Oblast, Ukraine, 65000\n* Lozova: Lozova City Council, Vulytsya Yaroslava Mudroho, Lozova, Kharkivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 64600\n* Sumy: Sumy City Council, Nezalezhnosti Square, 2, Sumy, Sums'ka oblast, Ukraine, 40000\n* Chernihiv: Chernihiv City Council, Mahistrats'ka St, 7, Chernihiv, Chernihivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 14000\n\nRussia must also have control of **all** of the following locations:\n\n* Simferopol - Ulitsa Karla Marksa, 18, Simferopol\n* Nova Kakhovka - Горсовет, Prospekt Dniprovsʹkyy, 23, Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, Ukraine, 74900\n* Svatove - Avtoshlyakh R 66, Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, 92600\n* Donetsk - Artema St, 98, Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 83000\n* Tokmak - Central St, 45, Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 71700", "fine_print": "* If the building itself no longer exists, resolution will be based on the location of the building. If the ISW map is no longer available on the resolution date, then an equivalent resource may be selected by Metaculus.", "post_id": 19724, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758530673.012269, "end_time": 1758564240.415598, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758530673.012269, "end_time": 1758564240.415598, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.030907683390841028 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.4384986499272845, 6.490644835382314, 1.2330797212169164, 0.8343032086110003, 0.759306565354444, 1.0184384014286874, 0.0, 0.6810473674839436, 0.49015759006788884, 0.0, 0.8335215954452907, 0.07368951982246172, 0.02248482167232384, 0.0, 0.003641122257945275, 0.3936160769744525, 0.11815224445332724, 0.0, 0.1034705072952383, 0.00229979934405528, 0.19144109464054668, 0.008124474579051055, 0.10426859196711712, 0.0, 0.0010266910336926773, 0.06830095722675533, 0.0001012377317535144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004313678789822718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007480512792552108, 0.0011898388370891663, 0.00021050772238154097, 0.0, 0.02623658408983517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003484655971083416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006301126768428149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005249079121844207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002751926865799895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289584.089476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 322, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289584.089476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 322, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8965430026394761, 0.10345699736052398 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1295, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-has-been-slow-but-western-support-remains-strong--even-with-new-war-in-middle-east-215707295.html), and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1gg5PBOaPGAuOjX5kCafOgNIBMWW-ZdI&ehbc=2E312F\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 19700, "title": "Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?", "short_title": "Additional Russian IPO in 2023?", "url_title": "Additional Russian IPO in 2023?", "slug": "additional-russian-ipo-in-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-29T16:36:52.086886Z", "published_at": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.222969Z", 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"2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-21T15:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-21T15:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-21T15:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "An [initial public offering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering) (IPO) is the process by which a privately-held company goes public by offering a portion of its shares to public investors for the first time. So far in 2023, five Russian companies have IPO-ed on the [MICEX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Exchange) trading floor [according to PREQVECA.ru](http://preqveca.ru/en/placements/?sf%5Bipo_t%5D=&sf%5Bipo%5D=0&sf%5Bstatus%5D=0&sf%5Bcountr%5D=2&sf%5Bspec%5D=0&sf%5Blisting%5D=9&sf%5Bpsf%5D=&sf%5Bpst%5D=&sf%5Bpt%5D=1&sf%5Bind%5D=0&sf%5Bpef%5D=01.01.2023&sf%5Bpet%5D=31.12.2023#search_r):\n\n| IPO / SPO Name | Industry | Trading Floor | Placement Volume (mln. USD) | End of Placement |\n|-------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|---------------|-----------------------------|------------------|\n| Henderson | Retail and Consumer Sector, Textiles and Clothing | MICEX | Not Provided | 02.11.2023 |\n| Astra Linux | Technologies, Telecommunications and Media | MICEX | 36 | 13.10.2023 |\n| SmartTechGroup | Financial Services | MICEX | 11 | 03.07.2023 |\n| Genetico | Biotechnologies and Life Sciences, Healthcare | MICEX | 2 | 25.04.2023 |\n| Kaluga's distillery Kristall | Food processing | MICEX | | 31.12.2023 |", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is at least one additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023, based on [data according to PREQVECA.ru]( http://preqveca.ru/en/placements/?sf%5Bipo_t%5D=&sf%5Bipo%5D=0&sf%5Bstatus%5D=0&sf%5Bcountr%5D=2&sf%5Bspec%5D=0&sf%5Blisting%5D=9&sf%5Bpsf%5D=&sf%5Bpst%5D=&sf%5Bpt%5D=1&sf%5Bind%5D=0&sf%5Bpef%5D=01.01.2023&sf%5Bpet%5D=31.12.2023#search_r) As of November 1, 2023, there have been five Russian IPOs in 2023, so this question asks whether there will be six or more in 2023.\n\nThe search criteria are:\n\n* Placement type: IPO\n* Trading floor: MICEX\n* Country of operation: Russia\n* End of Placement:\n * from: January 1, 2023\n * to: December 31, 2023\n* All other: Leave empty \n\nFor an IPO to count for this question, it has to have an ‘End of placement’ date between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2023, inclusive. If **6 or more companies meet this criterion, this question resolves as Yes**.", "fine_print": "Placement volume does not impact resolution of this question.", "post_id": 19700, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700578839.605539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700578839.605539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8037450603535072 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012852091876617526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9054469735703223, 0.0, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.01542797475028349, 0.03355904935421398, 0.011010747534174546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2076665890513558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2513282146981126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9856953537953402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9673830857829435, 0.08915094763644647, 0.1494220410952148, 0.04978706836786394, 0.5089300594347316, 0.9501504192541721, 0.0, 0.6785419597854283, 0.04384841732294667, 0.0, 0.11034223931239878, 0.0, 0.26102326165716355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11976849036492711, 0.4660889664235593, 0.07982935021231018, 0.16466410993500383, 2.402733366234807 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.014561049584144, "coverage": 0.322878310853012, "baseline_score": 14.59806770314259, "spot_peer_score": 47.949991248953374, "peer_archived_score": 8.014561049584144, "baseline_archived_score": 14.59806770314259, "spot_peer_archived_score": 47.949991248953374 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700578839.651362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700578839.651362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2200622291370894, 0.7799377708629106 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 201, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "An [initial public offering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering) (IPO) is the process by which a privately-held company goes public by offering a portion of its shares to public investors for the first time. So far in 2023, five Russian companies have IPO-ed on the [MICEX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Exchange) trading floor [according to PREQVECA.ru](http://preqveca.ru/en/placements/?sf%5Bipo_t%5D=&sf%5Bipo%5D=0&sf%5Bstatus%5D=0&sf%5Bcountr%5D=2&sf%5Bspec%5D=0&sf%5Blisting%5D=9&sf%5Bpsf%5D=&sf%5Bpst%5D=&sf%5Bpt%5D=1&sf%5Bind%5D=0&sf%5Bpef%5D=01.01.2023&sf%5Bpet%5D=31.12.2023#search_r):\n\n| IPO / SPO Name | Industry | Trading Floor | Placement Volume (mln. USD) | End of Placement |\n|-------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|---------------|-----------------------------|------------------|\n| Henderson | Retail and Consumer Sector, Textiles and Clothing | MICEX | Not Provided | 02.11.2023 |\n| Astra Linux | Technologies, Telecommunications and Media | MICEX | 36 | 13.10.2023 |\n| SmartTechGroup | Financial Services | MICEX | 11 | 03.07.2023 |\n| Genetico | Biotechnologies and Life Sciences, Healthcare | MICEX | 2 | 25.04.2023 |\n| Kaluga's distillery Kristall | Food processing | MICEX | | 31.12.2023 |" }, { "id": 19691, "title": "Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?", "short_title": "Non-Human Intelligence on Earth", "url_title": "Non-Human Intelligence on Earth", "slug": "non-human-intelligence-on-earth", "author_id": 153343, "author_username": "stranger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-27T21:40:44.652116Z", "published_at": "2023-11-04T21:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T20:39:37.535753Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-04T21:57:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-04T21:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19691, "title": "Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?", "created_at": "2023-10-27T21:40:44.652116Z", "open_time": "2023-11-04T21:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-07T21:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-07T21:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 2017 there has been news of the US government investigating UFOs/UAPs, recovering crashed vehicles, and recovering alien bodies. The US may soon pass a “UAP Disclosure Act” that would exercise eminent domain of any technology recovered from \"biologics\" or “non-human intelligence.” This was a notable change of terminology from “extraterrestrial” to allow for beings that originate or currently reside on Earth. [1]( https://www.npr.org/2023/07/27/1190390376/ufo-hearing-non-human-biologics-uaps)\n\nThere is additionally more evidence being found in the archaeological record that ancient ancestors of homo sapiens may have built tools and shelters. 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Human-derivative AI intelligences are not the focus of this question. \n* Intelligence here is defined by the ability to build technology at least to the level of metallurgy.\n* Evidence for existence can include the recovery of NHI technology or biological material (bodies) that are indisputably non-human and intelligent\n* Evidence for presence on Earth means the technology or body was found within Earth’s atmosphere (right now or anytime in the past).\n* Evidence is considered scientifically accepted if it is published in multiple peer-reviewed journals, or if multiple reputable sources unequivocally report the discovery of NHI.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19691, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758487166.865664, "end_time": 1758887662.459299, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758487166.865664, "end_time": 1758887662.459299, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.008849094066215878 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.327532442621192, 3.3577676136820704, 0.6025523182837629, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288048.735136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288048.735136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988779333608098, 0.0011220666391902577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 149, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 2017 there has been news of the US government investigating UFOs/UAPs, recovering crashed vehicles, and recovering alien bodies. 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[2](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66846772)\n\nGiven the background of these recent events, what is the probability that evidence will be presented and accepted for the existence of a non-human intelligence on Earth at the present or sometime in the past?" }, { "id": 19593, "title": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?", "short_title": "Johnson Speaker until 2024?", "url_title": "Johnson Speaker until 2024?", "slug": "johnson-speaker-until-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-26T15:07:46.578302Z", "published_at": "2023-11-01T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.369498Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-01T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:35:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-01T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19593, "title": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-26T15:07:46.578302Z", "open_time": "2023-11-01T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-04T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-04T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mike Johnson has been elected the [Speaker of the House of Representatives](https://www.house.gov/feature-stories/2023-10-25-new-speaker-of-the-house), securing 220 votes, amid a tumultuous period marked by intra-Republican discord. He is the fourth Republican to be nominated for the role since Kevin McCarthy's removal on [October 3](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/matt-gaetz-kevin-mccarthy-house-speakership-10-03-23/index.html). Johnson's victory symbolizes a win for the conservative, Trump-aligned faction within the Republican Party. In his address, he outlined border security, inflation, and Middle East conflict as key priorities and pledged his first bill in support of Israel. The election also underlines looming challenges including an impending [November 17 deadline](https://research.umn.edu/news/potential-federal-shutdown) to agree on government funding to avoid a shutdown. Johnson, known for his conservative stances on various policy issues, has raised [concerns among some Democrats, especially with respect to his challenging the 2020 election results](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67220358), underlining the political divisions and challenges ahead in finding bipartisan solutions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mike Johnson remains the Speaker of the US House of Representatives continuously until the end of 2023. This question will resolve as **No** if Mike Johnson ceases to be Speaker of the House for any reason (including but not limited to resignation, retirement, election loss, loss of majority party status, vote of no confidence, expulsion, impeachment and conviction, disqualification, death, or incapacity) in 2023. 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He is the fourth Republican to be nominated for the role since Kevin McCarthy's removal on [October 3](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/matt-gaetz-kevin-mccarthy-house-speakership-10-03-23/index.html). Johnson's victory symbolizes a win for the conservative, Trump-aligned faction within the Republican Party. In his address, he outlined border security, inflation, and Middle East conflict as key priorities and pledged his first bill in support of Israel. The election also underlines looming challenges including an impending [November 17 deadline](https://research.umn.edu/news/potential-federal-shutdown) to agree on government funding to avoid a shutdown. Johnson, known for his conservative stances on various policy issues, has raised [concerns among some Democrats, especially with respect to his challenging the 2020 election results](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67220358), underlining the political divisions and challenges ahead in finding bipartisan solutions." }, { "id": 19592, "title": "Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?", "short_title": "Another Diplomat Expelled from India by 2024?", "url_title": "Another Diplomat Expelled from India by 2024?", "slug": "another-diplomat-expelled-from-india-by-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-26T05:08:04.112061Z", "published_at": "2023-10-27T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.437139Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-27T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-27T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19592, "title": "Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-26T05:08:04.112061Z", "open_time": "2023-10-27T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Canada and India have been in an [ongoing dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Canada%E2%80%93India_diplomatic_row) following Canada's public [allegation in September of 2023 that India was responsible for the killing of a Canadian citizen](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-indian-government-nijjar-1.6970498). [Hardeep Singh Nijjar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardeep_Singh_Nijjar) was a leader in the movement for an [independent Sikh state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalistan_movement) to be established in the Punjab region of India. He was killed in Canada on June 18, 2023.\n\nCanada's statement led to escalating diplomatic tensions between the two countries, including India's [expulsion of a top Canadian diplomat](https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-sikh-diplomat-trudeau-modi-3c5572d9027769ea6adbd047ec6f462a) and a [temporary suspension of Indian visas](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/21/india/india-canada-travel-advisory-assassination-row-intl-hnk/index.html) to Canadian nationals in the days after the accusation, as well as an [ultimatum issued October 3 by India](https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-diplomats-090f136eebed1dd50c9a199e40360826) for Canada to remove 41 of its diplomats from India, which [Canada complied with by recalling the diplomats](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-recalls-41-of-its-diplomats-from-india/) on October 19.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 25, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that India has requested that at least one additional Canadian diplomat be recalled.", "fine_print": "* The diplomat need not actually be withdrawn or recalled from India, only a statement from India requesting that Canada recall one or more of its diplomats or expelling one or more Canadian diplomats is required.", "post_id": 19592, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056946.479849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056946.479849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07264427828822487 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.078441765660596, 5.563412945357211, 0.12555772682322433, 0.1569001714733002, 0.018377954541473906, 0.06264478937563904, 0.03161939734067051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0259121114349368, 0.03515433298854057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005290171900992922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012208548944264495, 0.0, 0.001511304389081846, 0.003597028756780682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0451623990336032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3429179627815088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017016592926998534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8939421666095336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.410594896389215, "coverage": 0.9999610905283094, "baseline_score": 88.06804522264507, "spot_peer_score": -1.9927052445378088, "peer_archived_score": 9.410594896389215, "baseline_archived_score": 88.06804522264507, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.9927052445378088 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056946.513067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056946.513067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 483, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Canada and India have been in an [ongoing dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Canada%E2%80%93India_diplomatic_row) following Canada's public [allegation in September of 2023 that India was responsible for the killing of a Canadian citizen](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-indian-government-nijjar-1.6970498). [Hardeep Singh Nijjar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardeep_Singh_Nijjar) was a leader in the movement for an [independent Sikh state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalistan_movement) to be established in the Punjab region of India. He was killed in Canada on June 18, 2023.\n\nCanada's statement led to escalating diplomatic tensions between the two countries, including India's [expulsion of a top Canadian diplomat](https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-sikh-diplomat-trudeau-modi-3c5572d9027769ea6adbd047ec6f462a) and a [temporary suspension of Indian visas](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/21/india/india-canada-travel-advisory-assassination-row-intl-hnk/index.html) to Canadian nationals in the days after the accusation, as well as an [ultimatum issued October 3 by India](https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-diplomats-090f136eebed1dd50c9a199e40360826) for Canada to remove 41 of its diplomats from India, which [Canada complied with by recalling the diplomats](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-recalls-41-of-its-diplomats-from-india/) on October 19." }, { "id": 19590, "title": "Will New Delhi experience a \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to an [article published by the BBC on October 24, 2023](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67166585):\n\n>The air quality in India's capital Delhi has fallen to poor levels and is expected to deteriorate further in the coming days, officials have said.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Delhi is one of the world's most polluted cities through the year.\n>\n>But its air turns especially toxic in winter due to various factors, including burning of crop remains by farmers, low wind speeds and bursting of firecrackers during festivals.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Environment Minister Gopal Rai said that the second phase of a Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) has been implemented to combat the effect of increased pollution.\n>\n>As part of the strategy, all public transport services, including the Delhi metro and electric bus services, have been instructed to increase their frequency to curb vehicle emissions in the city.\n\nAn overview of the GRAP is [available here](https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/explained-what-is-grap-and-how-does-it-combat-air-pollution-in-delhi-ncr-123102500329_1.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the air quality index (AQI) in the Indian city of New Delhi reaches a level of \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse for at least four of the seven days from October 29 to November 4, inclusive, according to [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi).", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve according to the AQI values listed in the \"historical\" tab of the AirNow page for New Delhi. A day will be considered to have reached \"Very Unhealthy\" if at least one hour on that date is listed in the historical data as \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse (AQI value of 201 or higher).\n* The question will resolve according to the historical data shown on or after November 6, 2023, when first accessed by Metaculus.\n* The YTD values will take precedence over those shown in the MTD values in the event that they differ, and both files may be used to resolve the question.", "post_id": 19590, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699047805.855625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699047805.855625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9537063752255794 ], "histogram": [ 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"unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699047805.904902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699047805.904902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.002617364366537367, 0.9973826356334626 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 220, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to an [article published by the BBC on October 24, 2023](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67166585):\n\n>The air quality in India's capital Delhi has fallen to poor levels and is expected to deteriorate further in the coming days, officials have said.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Delhi is one of the world's most polluted cities through the year.\n>\n>But its air turns especially toxic in winter due to various factors, including burning of crop remains by farmers, low wind speeds and bursting of firecrackers during festivals.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Environment Minister Gopal Rai said that the second phase of a Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) has been implemented to combat the effect of increased pollution.\n>\n>As part of the strategy, all public transport services, including the Delhi metro and electric bus services, have been instructed to increase their frequency to curb vehicle emissions in the city.\n\nAn overview of the GRAP is [available here](https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/explained-what-is-grap-and-how-does-it-combat-air-pollution-in-delhi-ncr-123102500329_1.html)." }, { "id": 19554, "title": "Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?", "short_title": "Israel using nuclear weapons", "url_title": "Israel using nuclear weapons", "slug": "israel-using-nuclear-weapons", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-25T00:35:10.681687Z", "published_at": "2023-10-26T02:53:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.222160Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-26T02:53:00Z", "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-07T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-07T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T11:25:45Z", "open_time": "2023-10-26T02:53:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 402, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19554, "title": "Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-25T00:35:10.681687Z", "open_time": "2023-10-26T02:53:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-29T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-29T02:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T11:25:45Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-08T11:26:41.706892Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-07T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-07T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, Palestinian militants led by Hamas launched a [surprise offensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) against Israeli forces surrounding the Gaza strip, occupying considerable territory inside internationally-recognized Israeli borders. Israeli counterattacks in the early days of the war expelled the Palestinian fighters from most of the territory they captured. However, Israeli leadership has insisted on launching a ground offensive into the Gaza strip in order to fully eliminate Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups operating in the territory. \n\nAs of October 24, 2023, Israel's ground offensive has been [delayed](https://news.sky.com/story/israeli-diplomat-explains-gaza-ground-offensive-delay-is-no-bad-thing-to-avoid-hamass-deadly-trap-12991638#:~:text=Hamas%20took%20more%20than%20220,rest%20are%20still%20being%20held.) multiple times. Israeli officials have argued that the country's armed forces required additional time to plan rescues of hostages, retrain troops, gain intelligence on Palestinian military operations/defense plans, and conduct artillery and airstrike preparation. Nonetheless, this has raised questions regarding whether or not Israel is capable of capturing the Gaza strip using conventional means with acceptable losses. While Israel officially denies having nuclear weapons, it is [widely believed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) to possess them, given information leaks and statements by Israeli officials. Moreover, Israeli officials have [suggested](https://www.newsweek.com/israeli-official-calls-doomsday-nuclear-missile-option-1833585) that the country could use nuclear weapons against Hamas if necessary, or if it is attacked by external actors such as Hezbollah or Iran.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that Israel has used nuclear weapons as an act of war before 12:00 AM on October 7, 2024. Any Israeli nuclear detonation occurring within territory *de facto* controlled by another state or group will resolve this question as Yes, unless that other nation unambiguously states that such a detonation was done with its government's consent. Nuclear detonations done as tests or accidents will not resolve the question as Yes, as well as those done in territory not *de facto* controlled by any group, such as international waters. A nuclear detonation occurring inside territory *de facto* controlled by Israel will resolve this question as Yes if at least one casualty (death or injury) occurs as a direct result of this detonation outside of this territory within a nation or area which unambiguously condemns Israel's actions within 30 days of this detonation occurring. If this does not occur by the resolution date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728242545.575088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728242545.575088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.004322573337828448 ], "histogram": [ [ 27.70360779240532, 10.186719159563024, 0.43418627803210497, 0.013883850781651535, 0.02948501164050047, 0.07764950265115146, 0.0, 0.017690070548547814, 0.011180451028138657, 0.0, 0.0801842850317408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00951264476586104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03785361844731227, 0.0, 6.679945908863184e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.07053443441449e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_peer_score": 3.0129117441587936, "baseline_score": 98.89760874743675, "peer_score": 1.3398754099873071, "coverage": 0.9998727127917377, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998727127917377, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.0129117441587936, "baseline_archived_score": 98.89760874743675, "peer_archived_score": 1.3398754099873071, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728242545.637781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 403, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728242545.637781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 403, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 803, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, Palestinian militants led by Hamas launched a [surprise offensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) against Israeli forces surrounding the Gaza strip, occupying considerable territory inside internationally-recognized Israeli borders. Israeli counterattacks in the early days of the war expelled the Palestinian fighters from most of the territory they captured. However, Israeli leadership has insisted on launching a ground offensive into the Gaza strip in order to fully eliminate Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups operating in the territory. \n\nAs of October 24, 2023, Israel's ground offensive has been [delayed](https://news.sky.com/story/israeli-diplomat-explains-gaza-ground-offensive-delay-is-no-bad-thing-to-avoid-hamass-deadly-trap-12991638#:~:text=Hamas%20took%20more%20than%20220,rest%20are%20still%20being%20held.) multiple times. Israeli officials have argued that the country's armed forces required additional time to plan rescues of hostages, retrain troops, gain intelligence on Palestinian military operations/defense plans, and conduct artillery and airstrike preparation. Nonetheless, this has raised questions regarding whether or not Israel is capable of capturing the Gaza strip using conventional means with acceptable losses. While Israel officially denies having nuclear weapons, it is [widely believed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) to possess them, given information leaks and statements by Israeli officials. Moreover, Israeli officials have [suggested](https://www.newsweek.com/israeli-official-calls-doomsday-nuclear-missile-option-1833585) that the country could use nuclear weapons against Hamas if necessary, or if it is attacked by external actors such as Hezbollah or Iran." }, { "id": 19525, "title": "Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?", "short_title": "2023 Liberian Election", "url_title": "2023 Liberian Election", "slug": "2023-liberian-election", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-22T09:58:19.062589Z", "published_at": "2023-10-25T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.367172Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-25T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-17T21:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-17T21:23:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-25T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19525, "title": "Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?", "created_at": "2023-10-22T09:58:19.062589Z", "open_time": "2023-10-25T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-26T16:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-26T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-17T21:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-17T21:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-17T21:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-05T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2023 Liberian election has led to a closely contested race between the incumbent President George Weah and opposition leader Joseph Boakai. The first round of the election, held on 10th October 2023, did not result in a clear winner as neither candidate secured the more than 50% of the votes required to avoid a runoff, with [99.93% of votes counted]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Liberian_general_election) \n\nGeorge Weah, the incumbent president, running with Jewel Taylor for the [Coalition for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_for_Democratic_Change#:~:text=The%20Coalition%20for%20Democratic%20Change,a%20political%20alliance%20in%20Liberia.), secured 803,674 votes (43.84%) in the 2023 Liberian general election's first round. Joseph Boakai, former vice president, alongside running mate Jeremiah Koung from the [Unity Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unity_Party_(Liberia)), garnered 796,313 votes (43.44%). As the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/1958a8c3-0425-42e2-aa8b-d8521261addf) outlines: \n\n> Weah had positioned himself as the plucky outsider who could shake things up in contrast to Boakai, an establishment figure, who had been vice-president for more than a decade and was a government minister in the 1980s.\n\n> Boakai is running on an anti-Weah platform and campaigning to revive the economy by investing in infrastructure and agriculture projects. But the 78-year-old is dogged by questions over his health and has been dubbed “Sleepy Joe” after falling asleep at events during his time as vice-president.\n\nLiberia is thus headed for a [run-off election](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/liberia-presidential-election-still-headed-second-round-2023-10-17/#:~:text=Following%20the%20Oct,the%20West%20African%20nation). This election has to be held [within 15 days of finalising the vote count for the first election](https://www.africanews.com/2023/10/19/liberia-close-results-towards-a-second-round-of-the-presidential-election//), making [November 7](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67142550) a likely date for the election.\n\nThe [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/1958a8c3-0425-42e2-aa8b-d8521261addf) reports:\n\n> A fresh run-off between the two men would mark a repeat of the 2017 elections. That time, Weah won the second round with 61.54 per cent of the vote. \n\n> However, analysts believe the results of this year’s are likely to be closer. “There’s an opportunity for both candidates to win,” said Alex Vines, head of the Africa programme at UK think-tank Chatham House.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if George Weah is elected as president of Liberia in 2023 according to statements from the [National Elections Commission](https://www.necliberia.org/) (NEC).", "fine_print": "* The question may resolve early based on media calls/reports, but final resolution will be determined according to official results released by the NEC, and the question may be re-resolved if the official results differ from the initial calls.\n* If the expected run-off election has to be re-run in 2024 or the election is otherwise delayed into 2024, this question will be **annulled**. The question will also be **annulled** if the NEC does not officially declare a winner before 2024.\n* If George Weah drops out or does not participate in the run-off election for whatever reason, but the election happens in 2023 and/or a new president is announced by the NEC, this question resolves as **No**.", "post_id": 19525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699185179.054318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699185179.054318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.600746278364095 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3850944711905501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7033457699064573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04869876109694747, 0.6541259978097677, 0.5644485981864586, 0.0, 0.9765713633172552, 1.3654865500008013, 1.8937453086419147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44961249434629236, 0.9066879566949397, 0.04255302797849524, 0.21997458618206234, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6321412959215627, 1.0034680141059458, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.013841141009878904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8489852170398919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551866365553954 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.338031350667592, "coverage": 0.9995617762362183, "baseline_score": -28.334435568517325, "spot_peer_score": 6.7594208927942, "peer_archived_score": 8.338031350667592, "baseline_archived_score": -28.334435568517325, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.7594208927942 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699185179.091404, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699185179.091404, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4871416833248543, 0.5128583166751457 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2023 Liberian election has led to a closely contested race between the incumbent President George Weah and opposition leader Joseph Boakai. The first round of the election, held on 10th October 2023, did not result in a clear winner as neither candidate secured the more than 50% of the votes required to avoid a runoff, with [99.93% of votes counted]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Liberian_general_election) \n\nGeorge Weah, the incumbent president, running with Jewel Taylor for the [Coalition for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_for_Democratic_Change#:~:text=The%20Coalition%20for%20Democratic%20Change,a%20political%20alliance%20in%20Liberia.), secured 803,674 votes (43.84%) in the 2023 Liberian general election's first round. Joseph Boakai, former vice president, alongside running mate Jeremiah Koung from the [Unity Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unity_Party_(Liberia)), garnered 796,313 votes (43.44%). As the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/1958a8c3-0425-42e2-aa8b-d8521261addf) outlines: \n\n> Weah had positioned himself as the plucky outsider who could shake things up in contrast to Boakai, an establishment figure, who had been vice-president for more than a decade and was a government minister in the 1980s.\n\n> Boakai is running on an anti-Weah platform and campaigning to revive the economy by investing in infrastructure and agriculture projects. But the 78-year-old is dogged by questions over his health and has been dubbed “Sleepy Joe” after falling asleep at events during his time as vice-president.\n\nLiberia is thus headed for a [run-off election](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/liberia-presidential-election-still-headed-second-round-2023-10-17/#:~:text=Following%20the%20Oct,the%20West%20African%20nation). This election has to be held [within 15 days of finalising the vote count for the first election](https://www.africanews.com/2023/10/19/liberia-close-results-towards-a-second-round-of-the-presidential-election//), making [November 7](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67142550) a likely date for the election.\n\nThe [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/1958a8c3-0425-42e2-aa8b-d8521261addf) reports:\n\n> A fresh run-off between the two men would mark a repeat of the 2017 elections. That time, Weah won the second round with 61.54 per cent of the vote. \n\n> However, analysts believe the results of this year’s are likely to be closer. “There’s an opportunity for both candidates to win,” said Alex Vines, head of the Africa programme at UK think-tank Chatham House." }, { "id": 19493, "title": "Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?", "short_title": "Will Labor win Sturt at the next election?", "url_title": "Will Labor win Sturt at the next election?", "slug": "will-labor-win-sturt-at-the-next-election", "author_id": 112352, "author_username": "joel.d", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113018, "username": "Grigfall" }, { "id": 111805, "username": "galen" } ], "created_at": "2023-10-19T22:15:18.361847Z", "published_at": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.320022Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19493, "title": "Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?", "created_at": "2023-10-19T22:15:18.361847Z", "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-02T20:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-02T20:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-07T11:04:29.328180Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The next Australian Federal Election is expected [between August 2024 and May 2025](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2223/Quick_Guides/WhenIsTheNextElection2022). A typical election is for every seat in the lower house — the House of Representatives — and half the seats in the upper house — the Senate. This question concerns the seat of Sturt, a lower house seat in South Australia.\n\nSturt is one of the most marginal seats currently held by the Liberal Party, with a margin of just 0.5%. The incumbent, James Stevens, is in his second term, having succeeded Christopher Pyne at the 2019 election. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since 1972. The ABC provides an overview [here](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/stur) from the last election. Although Labor has never won the seat, the very small margin suggests that this is nonetheless a possibility.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Australian Electoral Commission](https://www.aec.gov.au/) declares the result of this seat for the ALP candidate in the next Australian Federal Election. The question will resolve in the negative if any other party wins the seat, or other factors mean that nobody wins the seat.", "fine_print": "For this question to resolve as positive the successful candidate must be the ALP candidate when the election result is announced. If they leave or are disendorsed then that would not meet the criteria of this question.", "post_id": 19493, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746265191.270229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746265191.270229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2460228305389018 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 1.032446907522022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.16200818773240888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -95.06729664186363, "peer_score": 1.1922231062706177, "coverage": 0.9722523603344086, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998896996590215, "spot_peer_score": -5.666434265350158, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -95.06729664186363, "peer_archived_score": 1.1922231062706177, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.666434265350158, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287889.505216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287889.505216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8942326440122146, 0.10576735598778546 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The next Australian Federal Election is expected [between August 2024 and May 2025](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2223/Quick_Guides/WhenIsTheNextElection2022). A typical election is for every seat in the lower house — the House of Representatives — and half the seats in the upper house — the Senate. This question concerns the seat of Sturt, a lower house seat in South Australia.\n\nSturt is one of the most marginal seats currently held by the Liberal Party, with a margin of just 0.5%. The incumbent, James Stevens, is in his second term, having succeeded Christopher Pyne at the 2019 election. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since 1972. The ABC provides an overview [here](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/stur) from the last election. Although Labor has never won the seat, the very small margin suggests that this is nonetheless a possibility." } ] }
