Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2980
{ "count": 6357, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3000", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2960", "results": [ { "id": 25565, "title": "Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?", "short_title": "Biomass gasification hits 500M tons by 2050?", "url_title": "Biomass gasification hits 500M tons by 2050?", "slug": "biomass-gasification-hits-500m-tons-by-2050", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-20T22:28:55.970098Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.178111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25565, "title": "Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?", "created_at": "2024-06-20T22:28:55.970098Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 3-4, 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held a conference in Berkeley, California bringing together some of the top synthetic biologists in their field, in order to tackle some of the toughest bottlenecks in the industry toward achieving important long-term objectives. One such objective is bringing the world toward a net neutral CO₂ emissions economy by 2050. This is a difficult challenge because, as one participant put it, \"To make a gigaton of chemicals we need a gigaton of feedstock.\"\n\nOne possible intervention that could provide the world with enough feedstock to reach the total tons of biochemicals needed would be step change advancements in [Lignocellulosic biomass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lignocellulosic_biomass). It exists in vast abundance globally, if it could be used as feedstock. Waste biomass (farm/forestry residue) especially, tends to have a low price and has no current use. Preferentially, waste biomass that is produced at a point source could be used to make chemicals, such as [black liquor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_liquor) in pulp and paper mills and sugar beet pulp after sugar extraction. Additionally, corn [stalks and leaves](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/07/060719091421.htm) are available in the hundreds of millions of tons, as well as forest [overgrowth](https://newscenter.lbl.gov/2021/04/14/fire-risk-wood-into-biofuel/). \n\nLignocellulosic biomass also includes fast-growing plants that would be inexpensive to produce and harvest as energy crops, such as switchgrass and elephant grass. \n\nUnlocking this potential, however, requires significant developments in CO₂-fermenting organisms and reactor systems. There are a lot of petroleum-based products that need to be replaced, not only fuels but plastics. This is very difficult and expensive to engineer using 2024 technologies. However, if these systems could exist, the conference participants were highly confident that hundreds of millions of tons would really not be that much, given the vast quantities laying around on the planet right now that would be so cheaply available. Theoretically then, this could create new products at the same price or cheaper than the incumbent petrochemical processes, which if it could be achieved would make it simple for bio-based alternatives to outcompete petroleum-based products based purely on economics. \t\t\t\n\nSee Also\n\n[Syngas Fermentation for the Production of Bio-Based Polymers: A Review](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8618084/)\n\n[Lignocellulosic Biorefinery Technologies: A Perception into Recent Advances in Biomass Fractionation, Biorefineries, Economic Hurdles and Market Outlook](https://www.mdpi.com/2311-5637/9/3/238)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2050, the reported total global production capacity of chemicals produced from gasified lignocellulosic biomass using microbial gas fermentation reaches at least 500 million metric tons per year.\n\nResolution will be based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as government agency reporting, industry reports, and scientific publications. If Metaculus Admins determine that there is not sufficient evidence that this level of global production capacity has been achieved, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25565, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750126812.482703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750126812.482703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.32143581678570565 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4847110553436469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4856576896418114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287772.179047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287772.179047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9057675009974948, 0.09423249900250519 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 3-4, 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held a conference in Berkeley, California bringing together some of the top synthetic biologists in their field, in order to tackle some of the toughest bottlenecks in the industry toward achieving important long-term objectives. One such objective is bringing the world toward a net neutral CO₂ emissions economy by 2050. This is a difficult challenge because, as one participant put it, \"To make a gigaton of chemicals we need a gigaton of feedstock.\"\n\nOne possible intervention that could provide the world with enough feedstock to reach the total tons of biochemicals needed would be step change advancements in [Lignocellulosic biomass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lignocellulosic_biomass). It exists in vast abundance globally, if it could be used as feedstock. Waste biomass (farm/forestry residue) especially, tends to have a low price and has no current use. Preferentially, waste biomass that is produced at a point source could be used to make chemicals, such as [black liquor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_liquor) in pulp and paper mills and sugar beet pulp after sugar extraction. Additionally, corn [stalks and leaves](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/07/060719091421.htm) are available in the hundreds of millions of tons, as well as forest [overgrowth](https://newscenter.lbl.gov/2021/04/14/fire-risk-wood-into-biofuel/). \n\nLignocellulosic biomass also includes fast-growing plants that would be inexpensive to produce and harvest as energy crops, such as switchgrass and elephant grass. \n\nUnlocking this potential, however, requires significant developments in CO₂-fermenting organisms and reactor systems. There are a lot of petroleum-based products that need to be replaced, not only fuels but plastics. This is very difficult and expensive to engineer using 2024 technologies. However, if these systems could exist, the conference participants were highly confident that hundreds of millions of tons would really not be that much, given the vast quantities laying around on the planet right now that would be so cheaply available. Theoretically then, this could create new products at the same price or cheaper than the incumbent petrochemical processes, which if it could be achieved would make it simple for bio-based alternatives to outcompete petroleum-based products based purely on economics. \t\t\t\n\nSee Also\n\n[Syngas Fermentation for the Production of Bio-Based Polymers: A Review](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8618084/)\n\n[Lignocellulosic Biorefinery Technologies: A Perception into Recent Advances in Biomass Fractionation, Biorefineries, Economic Hurdles and Market Outlook](https://www.mdpi.com/2311-5637/9/3/238)" }, { "id": 25526, "title": "Will the cost of developing a bioproduct be reduced by 100x before 2045, compared with 2024?", "short_title": "Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?", "url_title": "Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?", "slug": "will-bioproduct-development-costs-go-100x", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-20T01:23:29.766645Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.661274Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25526, "title": "Will the cost of developing a bioproduct be reduced by 100x before 2045, compared with 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-20T01:23:29.766645Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2044-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the article *An Automated Scientist to Design and Optimize Microbial Strains for the Industrial Production of Small Molecules* ([pdf here](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.521657v1.full.pdf)) \n\n>Although industrial fermentation of engineered microbes has proven impactful in that it can deliver high purity biomolecules in sustainable fashion at stable cost, the R&D process of bringing a single biomolecule from idea to small scale production (milligrams) to applications testing (kilograms) to market (tons) is lengthy (years to a decade or more) and expensive (**$100-$200M**), a barrier that prevents many new biomolecules from going to market.\n\nThese costs have come down over the decades [due to](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9559305/) such factors as the technological cost curves in DNA Synthesis and Sequencing, improved machine learning, new genome engineering tools such as CRISPR-Cas9, and rapid tool advances. \n\nOn June 3-4, 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held a *Scale Is All You Need* workshop in Berkeley, California, to identify a set of technical innovations or scientific insights that, if developed, could help resolve the bottlenecks that currently make it difficult for synthetic biology companies to innovate. Operating under the [Chatham House Rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chatham_House_Rule), subject matter experts identified the continued high costs of engineering, prototyping, and deployment of engineered organisms as an enormous bottleneck in the synthetic biology industry. \n\nThe scientists identified the following potential interventions, if they happened before 2035, as having potential to unlock this bottleneck: \n\n- Greatly-reduced costs of fermentation tests are available before 2035, assuming a sufficiently high Positive Predictive Value is maintained.\n\n- Universal molecular biology tools for use across organisms are available before 2040. \n\n- A model is developed that can predict protein function (catalytic activity, binding affinity, etc.) from any genotype with 90% accuracy before 2035.\n\n- In general, overcoming the significant long-term challenge in synthetic biology of being able to accurately predict phenotype from genotype would be enormous, especially if it could be done with a high degree of accuracy. While the group did not find this to be very feasible, as one participant put it, \"Solving genotype<>phenotype would guarantee the 100x drop.\"\n\n- Before January 1, 2035, at least 10 scalable non-model organisms that grow on waste are developed and available.\n\n- Greatly-increased amounts of publicly-available resources and datasets. One example would be the creation of gene modules, organisms, assay and molecular biology technologies -- and other physical materials -- that are open-source, free to use and commercialize, and easy to access.\t\n\nSee Also\n\nGenetic Engineering & Biotechnology News: [Fermentation Margins and Cost of Goods](https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/fermentation-margins-and-cost-of-goods/)\n\nAlChE: [SBE Supplement: Commercializing Industrial Biotechnology - Use Cost Models to Guide R&D](https://www.aiche.org/resources/publications/cep/2016/june/sbe-supplement-commercializing-industrial-biotechnology-use-cost-models-guide-rd)\n\nNielsen J, Keasling JD. [Engineering Cellular Metabolism](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26967285/). Cell. 2016 Mar 10;164(6):1185-1197. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2016.02.004. PMID: 26967285.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the average inflation-adjusted cost of developing a bioproduct has decreased by 100 times or more before January 1, 2045, compared to the cost in 2024. If this does not occur by the specified date, the question will resolve as **No.**\n\nFor purposes of this question, the 2024 cost is assumed to be in the range of $100 million to $200 million, according to the most recent article in the scientific literature that has examined the subject at the time of this question, [here](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/An-Automated-Scientist-to-Design-and-Optimize-for-Singh-Kaufmann-Malaga/d3dcd1b9c86feb584a803596aed2b0c34ed11d5c). Therefore, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the inflation-adjusted average cost of the R&D process of bringing a single biomolecule from idea to small scale production to applications testing to market is reported to be less than or equal to $2 million (in 2024 dollars), at any point before January 1, 2045.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25526, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752279021.816271, "end_time": 1785160279.629907, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752279021.816271, "end_time": 1785160279.629907, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4779311627796921 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5699081483698708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.5394643218522802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 1.7394682331392084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289549.982972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289549.982972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5155469148384064, 0.48445308516159363 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the article *An Automated Scientist to Design and Optimize Microbial Strains for the Industrial Production of Small Molecules* ([pdf here](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.521657v1.full.pdf)) \n\n>Although industrial fermentation of engineered microbes has proven impactful in that it can deliver high purity biomolecules in sustainable fashion at stable cost, the R&D process of bringing a single biomolecule from idea to small scale production (milligrams) to applications testing (kilograms) to market (tons) is lengthy (years to a decade or more) and expensive (**$100-$200M**), a barrier that prevents many new biomolecules from going to market.\n\nThese costs have come down over the decades [due to](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9559305/) such factors as the technological cost curves in DNA Synthesis and Sequencing, improved machine learning, new genome engineering tools such as CRISPR-Cas9, and rapid tool advances. \n\nOn June 3-4, 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held a *Scale Is All You Need* workshop in Berkeley, California, to identify a set of technical innovations or scientific insights that, if developed, could help resolve the bottlenecks that currently make it difficult for synthetic biology companies to innovate. Operating under the [Chatham House Rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chatham_House_Rule), subject matter experts identified the continued high costs of engineering, prototyping, and deployment of engineered organisms as an enormous bottleneck in the synthetic biology industry. \n\nThe scientists identified the following potential interventions, if they happened before 2035, as having potential to unlock this bottleneck: \n\n- Greatly-reduced costs of fermentation tests are available before 2035, assuming a sufficiently high Positive Predictive Value is maintained.\n\n- Universal molecular biology tools for use across organisms are available before 2040. \n\n- A model is developed that can predict protein function (catalytic activity, binding affinity, etc.) from any genotype with 90% accuracy before 2035.\n\n- In general, overcoming the significant long-term challenge in synthetic biology of being able to accurately predict phenotype from genotype would be enormous, especially if it could be done with a high degree of accuracy. While the group did not find this to be very feasible, as one participant put it, \"Solving genotype<>phenotype would guarantee the 100x drop.\"\n\n- Before January 1, 2035, at least 10 scalable non-model organisms that grow on waste are developed and available.\n\n- Greatly-increased amounts of publicly-available resources and datasets. One example would be the creation of gene modules, organisms, assay and molecular biology technologies -- and other physical materials -- that are open-source, free to use and commercialize, and easy to access.\t\n\nSee Also\n\nGenetic Engineering & Biotechnology News: [Fermentation Margins and Cost of Goods](https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/fermentation-margins-and-cost-of-goods/)\n\nAlChE: [SBE Supplement: Commercializing Industrial Biotechnology - Use Cost Models to Guide R&D](https://www.aiche.org/resources/publications/cep/2016/june/sbe-supplement-commercializing-industrial-biotechnology-use-cost-models-guide-rd)\n\nNielsen J, Keasling JD. [Engineering Cellular Metabolism](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26967285/). Cell. 2016 Mar 10;164(6):1185-1197. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2016.02.004. PMID: 26967285." }, { "id": 25523, "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?", "short_title": "Nigel Farage UK PM before Jan 1 2035?", "url_title": "Nigel Farage UK PM before Jan 1 2035?", "slug": "nigel-farage-uk-pm-before-jan-1-2035", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-19T16:42:28.795762Z", "published_at": "2024-06-22T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T01:29:26.738777Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-22T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-22T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25523, "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?", "created_at": "2024-06-19T16:42:28.795762Z", "open_time": "2024-06-22T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-27T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-27T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage?useskin=vector), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician who has served as the leader of Reform UK since June 2024, having previously been the leader of the UK Independence Party and the Brexit Party. Farage was a leading figure in the [Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit?useskin=vector) movement.\n\nIn the [2024 UK general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) to be held on July 4, Farage is contesting the constituency of Clacton in Essex.\n\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) suggests that the ruling Conservative Party, in power for 14 years, is on the verge of an unprecedentedly [catastrophic defeat](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-general-election-2024-poll-projection-seats-wipeout-b2555671.html), and Prime Minister [Rishi Sunak may even lose his own seat.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/) Some observers suggest the Conservative Party is [facing an existential threat](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/08/from-humiliation-to-annihilation-could-this-election-mean-the-end-of-the-tory-party-as-we-know-it), and [may go extinct](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/19/the-tories-are-teetering-on-the-brink-of-extinction/) as a political force. \n\nThe expected scale of Tory losses has led some to speculate that Farage may emerge as a major opposition force during a Labour government, and Farage himself has said he aims to [position himself as an alternative Prime Minister by 2029.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/17/nigel-farage-plan-run-for-prime-minister-2029/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if credible media reports indicate that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035, and as **No** if this does not occur. \n\nIf the United Kingdom ceases to exist before this occurs or before January 1, 2035, the question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763256555.778725, "end_time": 1763803430.585419, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763256555.778725, "end_time": 1763803430.585419, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5478189306953017 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.08976124006212001, 0.08397709005035515, 0.0, 0.10560712002984213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06290448966866473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05203521806025672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.0, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.7777618131431029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2506316319160805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.37390892894840233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03860646978477285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5975016895580821, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 1.3442477863161804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0989453737662371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7455436964826374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.936190011068893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7130527459887679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06640848463893828 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288065.15235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288065.15235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9633306391041715, 0.03666936089582846 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 204, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage?useskin=vector), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician who has served as the leader of Reform UK since June 2024, having previously been the leader of the UK Independence Party and the Brexit Party. Farage was a leading figure in the [Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit?useskin=vector) movement.\n\nIn the [2024 UK general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) to be held on July 4, Farage is contesting the constituency of Clacton in Essex.\n\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) suggests that the ruling Conservative Party, in power for 14 years, is on the verge of an unprecedentedly [catastrophic defeat](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-general-election-2024-poll-projection-seats-wipeout-b2555671.html), and Prime Minister [Rishi Sunak may even lose his own seat.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/) Some observers suggest the Conservative Party is [facing an existential threat](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/08/from-humiliation-to-annihilation-could-this-election-mean-the-end-of-the-tory-party-as-we-know-it), and [may go extinct](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/19/the-tories-are-teetering-on-the-brink-of-extinction/) as a political force. \n\nThe expected scale of Tory losses has led some to speculate that Farage may emerge as a major opposition force during a Labour government, and Farage himself has said he aims to [position himself as an alternative Prime Minister by 2029.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/17/nigel-farage-plan-run-for-prime-minister-2029/)" }, { "id": 25520, "title": "Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?", "short_title": "Nigel Farage Elected MP in 2024 UK GE?", "url_title": "Nigel Farage Elected MP in 2024 UK GE?", "slug": "nigel-farage-elected-mp-in-2024-uk-ge", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-19T12:50:46.876535Z", "published_at": "2024-06-20T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.031863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-20T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-20T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25520, "title": "Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?", "created_at": "2024-06-19T12:50:46.876535Z", "open_time": "2024-06-20T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-21T20:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-21T20:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage?useskin=vector), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician who has served as the leader of [Reform UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK?useskin=vector) since June 2024, having previously been the leader of [UK Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party) and the Brexit Party. Farage was a leading figure in the [Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit?useskin=vector) movement.\n\nIn the [2024 UK general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) to be held on July 4, Farage is contesting the constituency of [Clacton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in Essex.\n\nIn the most recent general election in 2019, the Conservative Party candidate, Giles Watling, won the seat with 72.3% of the vote, and is standing for re-election. However, recent polling suggests that Farage is favoured to win the constituency. \n\nThe Times: [Nigel Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-set-to-win-clacton-with-biggest-swing-in-modern-history-5tzjsmtw6)\n\n>Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.\n\n>The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.\n\n>Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Reform would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** in the event that in the 2024 UK general election held on July 4, 2024, Nigel Farage is elected as the member of parliament (MP) for any UK constituency. The question will resolve as **No** if this does not occur, unless the general election is cancelled or postponed beyond July 4 2024, in which case the question will be **annulled**.\n\nResolution should cite credible media reports from the BBC, the Times, the Financial Times, the Guardian, or other major UK news sources; or the official announcement of the returning officer for any constituency in which Nigel Farage is a candidate. \n\nFarage need not be sworn in as an MP for the question to resolve as **Yes** -- this question resolves on the basis of his election or non-election.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25520, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720085816.956627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720085816.956627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9050131176522184 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26149236509479434, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.1148171974242466, 0.0, 0.30179287446584263, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1379373428276254, 0.3445918901109067, 0.0, 0.3519440124101262, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4368417477915896, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.89599398160124, 0.035579456289155105, 0.6019627254324547, 0.5029882706621958, 2.065730063225936 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.748424924750332, "coverage": 0.9999966131432584, "baseline_score": 78.76819681589943, "spot_peer_score": -10.10894832220606, "peer_archived_score": 3.748424924750332, "baseline_archived_score": 78.76819681589943, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.10894832220606 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720085817.00469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720085817.00469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06447743434927022, 0.9355225656507298 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage?useskin=vector), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician who has served as the leader of [Reform UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK?useskin=vector) since June 2024, having previously been the leader of [UK Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party) and the Brexit Party. Farage was a leading figure in the [Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit?useskin=vector) movement.\n\nIn the [2024 UK general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) to be held on July 4, Farage is contesting the constituency of [Clacton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in Essex.\n\nIn the most recent general election in 2019, the Conservative Party candidate, Giles Watling, won the seat with 72.3% of the vote, and is standing for re-election. However, recent polling suggests that Farage is favoured to win the constituency. \n\nThe Times: [Nigel Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-set-to-win-clacton-with-biggest-swing-in-modern-history-5tzjsmtw6)\n\n>Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.\n\n>The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.\n\n>Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Reform would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”." }, { "id": 25519, "title": "Will a high fidelity fermentation test that costs under $10 be commercially available before 2035?", "short_title": "High fidelity fermentation test <$10 by 2035?", "url_title": "High fidelity fermentation test <$10 by 2035?", "slug": "high-fidelity-fermentation-test-10-by-2035", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127496, "username": "Sempervivens" }, { "id": 183279, "username": "samuelrlevin" } ], "created_at": "2024-06-19T10:39:55.946305Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T23:24:35.985210Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T05:56:23.350770Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25519, "title": "Will a high fidelity fermentation test that costs under $10 be commercially available before 2035?", "created_at": "2024-06-19T10:39:55.946305Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "State of the art, high fidelity fermentation tests (e.g. those done in a benchtop bioreactor, or [AMBR250](https://www.sartorius.com/en/products/fermentation-bioreactors/ambr-multi-parallel-bioreactors/ambr-250-high-throughput), which are predictive of performance at scale), as of June 2024 cost ~$1,500 per test. Start-ups are actively working on developing cheaper alternatives to these tests ([example](https://agfundernews.com/caladan-bio-raises-5m-seed-round-to-build-next-generation-benchtop-bioreactors)).\n\nOn the production side, bioproducts currently cost ~50 dollars per kg to be produced through fermentation ([source](https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/fermentation-margins-and-cost-of-goods/)) Development costs are the main potential bottleneck in optimization of costs of bioproducts, due to the high cost required for every benchtop experiment. On average, it takes $50M to $100M to bring a bioproduct to market. ([source](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.521657v1)) Approximately 90% of the cost of this is spent on strain and process optimization due to the cost of running fermentation tests, which [provide](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26967285/) key data in the iterative process of strain and process optimization. If this were drastically reduced, in principle, it could allow for more innovation, R&D, and optimization, potentially leading to bioproduct cost optimization.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2035, a high fidelity, predictive fermentation test (bioreactor run) that costs under $10 per test on average is commercially available for research & development purposes. \n\nIf no such test meeting these criteria is available before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nResolution will be based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as vendor listings, scientific publications, or news articles.", "fine_print": "\"Commercially available\" means able to be purchased by research institutions, laboratories, and/or companies for R&D purposes. \n\n\"High fidelity\" and \"predictive\" mean a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) > 0.90.", "post_id": 25519, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760743465.581575, "end_time": 1779342698.499867, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760743465.581575, "end_time": 1779342698.499867, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08470728308208529 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288490.764458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288490.764458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9820961751491842, 0.017903824850815712 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "State of the art, high fidelity fermentation tests (e.g. those done in a benchtop bioreactor, or [AMBR250](https://www.sartorius.com/en/products/fermentation-bioreactors/ambr-multi-parallel-bioreactors/ambr-250-high-throughput), which are predictive of performance at scale), as of June 2024 cost ~$1,500 per test. Start-ups are actively working on developing cheaper alternatives to these tests ([example](https://agfundernews.com/caladan-bio-raises-5m-seed-round-to-build-next-generation-benchtop-bioreactors)).\n\nOn the production side, bioproducts currently cost ~50 dollars per kg to be produced through fermentation ([source](https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/fermentation-margins-and-cost-of-goods/)) Development costs are the main potential bottleneck in optimization of costs of bioproducts, due to the high cost required for every benchtop experiment. On average, it takes $50M to $100M to bring a bioproduct to market. ([source](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.521657v1)) Approximately 90% of the cost of this is spent on strain and process optimization due to the cost of running fermentation tests, which [provide](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26967285/) key data in the iterative process of strain and process optimization. If this were drastically reduced, in principle, it could allow for more innovation, R&D, and optimization, potentially leading to bioproduct cost optimization." }, { "id": 25513, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?", "short_title": "Gamestop Docusign Who Will be Worth More?", "url_title": "Gamestop Docusign Who Will be Worth More?", "slug": "gamestop-docusign-who-will-be-worth-more", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-18T22:07:06.923011Z", "published_at": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.444945Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T22:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T22:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25513, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?", "created_at": "2024-06-18T22:07:06.923011Z", "open_time": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-20T10:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-20T10:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T22:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T22:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-28T22:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638024000012/gme-20240203.htm), Gamestop is a specialty retailer with 4,169 physical stores, offering games, entertainment products and technology. In the year ended December 31, 2023, it made $6.7 million in net income with $5.27 billion in revenues. Its revenues were *down* 11% year over year.\n\nAccording to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261333/000126133324000045/docu-20240131.htm), Docusign offers contract lifecycle management software and the world's leading electronic signature product. In the year ended January 31, 2024, it made $73.98 million in net income with $2.76 million in revenues. Its revenues were *up* 9.8% year over year. \n\nAs of June 18, 2024, CompaniesMarketCap reported a market capitalization of $10.52 billion for GameStop compared with $10.43 billion for DocuSign.\n\nSee Also\n\nFox Business: [GameStop meme stock mania is SEC’s bad dream on repeat | GameStop shares have advanced over 100% this quarter](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gamestop-meme-stock-mania-secs-bad-dream-repeat)\n\nAP: [Gamestop shares slump following annual shareholder meeting](https://apnews.com/article/gamestop-stock-annual-shareholder-meeting-db6785418358f3446e343d1b6647604d)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on Friday June 28, 2024, CompaniesMarketCap shows a greater market cap for Gamestop than Docusign, when checked by Metaculus after 4:00 PM EDT (8:00 PM UTC). If CompaniesMarketCap shows a greater market cap for Docusign than Gamestop, this question resolves as **No**.\n\n- Gamestop's page can be accessed [here](https://companiesmarketcap.com/gamestop/marketcap/).\n- Docusign's page can be accessed [here](https://companiesmarketcap.com/docusign/marketcap/).", "fine_print": "In case of a tie, the tiebreaker will be the company ranked higher by CompaniesMarketCap (i.e, \"most valuable company by market cap according to our data\"). If it continues to be a tie, the next tiebreaker will be alphabetical order (which in this case means Docusign).\n\nIf the CompaniesMarketCap website is inaccessible by Metaculus Admins from 4:01 PM EDT until 11:59 PM EDT on June 28, 2024, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 25513, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719522200.098992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719522200.098992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.21681787584257828 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.24582773872283623, 0.0, 0.10228230303850093, 0.09043497114579632, 0.3983517458900416, 0.18037658447122673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1762271992262812, 0.8537419995997547, 0.16193689729934868, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4838960688066418, 1.088112375802472, 0.06984569336479438, 0.045661515517217234, 0.80553422910174, 1.2534633244261042, 0.0, 0.0391307538660947, 0.03326916664747106, 0.0, 0.6183824862044336, 0.5642982571167124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009362214450677682, 0.0, 0.025997929795521624, 0.01223904243451124, 0.3613315105385659, 0.0, 0.023344988892241045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.61443971782953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6036122362200822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015497814578501265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4337183691184219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004502492091281563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.510678344591746, "coverage": 0.9995575672524472, "baseline_score": 61.676033508170946, "spot_peer_score": -3.854687120759749, "peer_archived_score": 11.510678344591746, "baseline_archived_score": 61.676033508170946, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.854687120759749 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719522200.14401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719522200.14401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8174916537136492, 0.18250834628635085 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 176, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638024000012/gme-20240203.htm), Gamestop is a specialty retailer with 4,169 physical stores, offering games, entertainment products and technology. In the year ended December 31, 2023, it made $6.7 million in net income with $5.27 billion in revenues. Its revenues were *down* 11% year over year.\n\nAccording to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261333/000126133324000045/docu-20240131.htm), Docusign offers contract lifecycle management software and the world's leading electronic signature product. In the year ended January 31, 2024, it made $73.98 million in net income with $2.76 million in revenues. Its revenues were *up* 9.8% year over year. \n\nAs of June 18, 2024, CompaniesMarketCap reported a market capitalization of $10.52 billion for GameStop compared with $10.43 billion for DocuSign.\n\nSee Also\n\nFox Business: [GameStop meme stock mania is SEC’s bad dream on repeat | GameStop shares have advanced over 100% this quarter](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gamestop-meme-stock-mania-secs-bad-dream-repeat)\n\nAP: [Gamestop shares slump following annual shareholder meeting](https://apnews.com/article/gamestop-stock-annual-shareholder-meeting-db6785418358f3446e343d1b6647604d)" }, { "id": 25499, "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?", "short_title": "Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal renewal", "url_title": "Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal renewal", "slug": "russia-ukraine-gas-transit-deal-renewal", "author_id": 122079, "author_username": "wd28", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-18T13:39:24.734635Z", "published_at": "2024-06-22T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.973095Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-22T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T18:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-22T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25499, "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-06-18T13:39:24.734635Z", "open_time": "2024-06-22T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-25T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-25T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T18:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T18:50:44.676975Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused [a lot of tensions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes).\n\nAfter Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine stopped buying natural gas from Russia directly, but transit remained, and agreements [were renewed](https://www.naftogaz.com/en/news/naftogaz-gtsou-and-gazprom-signed-a-set-of-agreements-to-ensure-russian-gas-transit-over-the-next-five-years) in 2019 for five years. Even the Russia-Ukraine war didn't stop the flow, although transit levels dropped by [an order of magnitude](https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine/) since its heights in 2008.\n\nThe current bilateral agreement is set to expire at the end of 2024, and the Ukraine government said [it doesn't plan to extend or renew it](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-no-plan-extend-russian-gas-transit-deal-2024-03-17/). However, Ukraine remains reliant on Russian natural gas, which is still bought via [virtual reverse flow](https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/ukraine-launches-virtual-gas-reverse-flow-slovakia.html). Replacing it with actual reverse flow requires large capital investments, and it is not clear if infrastructure can be prepared in time.", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves *Yes* if credible sources report that Gazprom (or its successor) and Naftogaz/Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) (or the entity that owns the Ukrainian gas transit system at the time) has: \n\n- prolonged the current 5-year agreement, or\n- signed a new agreement\n\nbefore January 1, 2025, which allows Gazprom to transit gas through Ukraine to a point outside of Ukraine. If no such report is made before January 1 , 2025, this question resolves as *No*.", "fine_print": "* The agreement must have a length of at least 1 year to count. An agreement between the Russian and Ukrainian governments would also count towards resolution of this question.\n* An agreement must be bilateral, transit of gas produced in 3rd countries does not count.\n* Two separate agreements, one with Ukraine and a 3rd party and a second one with Russia and a 3rd party, does not count.\n* A 'swap' of gas with a 3rd party gas producer does not count.\n* Ukraine must be contracted by Russia to provide the gas transport service and Russia must pay Ukraine the transit fees.", "post_id": 25499, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735311656.453956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735311656.453956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.03256365813384477 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.762355782033814, 1.7346631777618298, 0.3107369763284956, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05797234383343228, 0.0, 0.28211668489493613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25446741675480405 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.18271282573225, "peer_score": 15.276365887853629, "coverage": 0.9988774113808047, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9988774113808047, "spot_peer_score": 1.2304025879311908, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 97.18271282573225, "peer_archived_score": 15.276365887853629, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2304025879311908, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287231.013595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287231.013595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9983318104655211, 0.0016681895344789132 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused [a lot of tensions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes).\n\nAfter Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine stopped buying natural gas from Russia directly, but transit remained, and agreements [were renewed](https://www.naftogaz.com/en/news/naftogaz-gtsou-and-gazprom-signed-a-set-of-agreements-to-ensure-russian-gas-transit-over-the-next-five-years) in 2019 for five years. Even the Russia-Ukraine war didn't stop the flow, although transit levels dropped by [an order of magnitude](https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine/) since its heights in 2008.\n\nThe current bilateral agreement is set to expire at the end of 2024, and the Ukraine government said [it doesn't plan to extend or renew it](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-no-plan-extend-russian-gas-transit-deal-2024-03-17/). However, Ukraine remains reliant on Russian natural gas, which is still bought via [virtual reverse flow](https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/ukraine-launches-virtual-gas-reverse-flow-slovakia.html). Replacing it with actual reverse flow requires large capital investments, and it is not clear if infrastructure can be prepared in time." }, { "id": 25488, "title": "Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say \"deepfake\" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?", "short_title": "Debate utterance of the word \"deepfake\"?", "url_title": "Debate utterance of the word \"deepfake\"?", "slug": "debate-utterance-of-the-word-deepfake", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-17T21:21:38.419686Z", "published_at": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.903221Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T16:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25488, "title": "Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say \"deepfake\" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-17T21:21:38.419686Z", "open_time": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-20T10:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-20T10:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T16:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-30T16:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Related Metaculus question: [Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a \"deepfake\" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17180/deepfake-costs-election-before-2025/)\n\nBoth candidates have recently had exposure to the subject:\n\n- In his interview with Youtube podcaster Logan Paul on June 13, 2024, Donald Trump [discussed](https://youtu.be/xrFdHO7FH8w?si=f-f0AMwAt_S0F5pB&t=2741) deepfakes, describing them as \"disconcerting\" and \"alarming,\" although avoiding specific usage of the word. \n\n- Joe Biden's press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on June 10, 2024, [described](https://wcyb.com/news/nation-world/white-house-claims-recent-viral-videos-of-biden-are-actually-deepfakes-president-joe-biden-karine-jean-pierre-normandy-france-apulia-italy-g7-summit-2024-election-politics) viral videos of Joe Biden appearing confused as \"deepfakes.\" \n\nCNN's current plans are for the debate to be [moderated by](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules/index.html) Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It will be 90 minutes, with two commercial breaks.\n\nSee also: \n\nWashington Post [AI deepfakes threaten to upend global elections. No one can stop them.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/23/ai-deepfake-election-2024-us-india/)\n\n[Purdue profs show how deepfakes could impact 2024 presidential election](https://www.wishtv.com/news/i-team-8/purdue-profs-show-how-deepfakes-could-impact-2024-presidential-election/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if during the broadcast of the presidential debate held by CNN scheduled for June 27, 2024, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or one of the moderators utters the word \"deepfake.\" If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nDetermination of whether one of the candidates or moderators has uttered \"deepfake\" will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus's Admins. They will be the sole deciders of whether this has happened or not, and their decision will be final. In cases of ambiguity they may consult CNN's official transcript, typically posted at [transcripts.cnn.com](https://transcripts.cnn.com/). It's important to note, however, that in the absence of a clear utterance of the word, especially if it does not appear in the transcript, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Other forms of the word such as plural, possessive, or gerund will count, as long as the rootword is used (for example \"deepfakes\" or \"deepfaking\"). \n\nDiscussion of the subject matter, without actually using the word, will not count.\n\nThe debate is expected to be held on June 27, 2024. In the case of a slight delay in the debate being held, resolution will wait up to a few days. However, if CNN does not host a US presidential debate before July 1, 2024, this question will be annulled.\n\nAccording to the rules memo [circulated by CNN](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/us/politics/trump-biden-debate-rules.html), “Microphones will be muted throughout the debate except for the candidate designated to speak.” If the word \"deepfake\" is said, for example by a muted candidate, but it is not caught on mic or in CNN's transcript, it will not count.\n\nMentions of \"deepfake\" by anyone other than Trump, Biden, or the moderators will not count.\n\nMentions of the word before the debate has begun or after it has ended will not count.", "post_id": 25488, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719531073.11308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.291 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719531073.11308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.291 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40368058390663025 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.007683132160872665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28561011189009977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18184291418632875, 0.0, 0.010256932132203396, 0.14365297647072853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13063526414047666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5540861105137385, 0.09495037644869721, 0.0, 0.008904031237728248, 0.6039843306575171, 1.6299132667523466, 0.11566615689731327, 0.0, 0.35596600506552695, 0.0026077048968387137, 0.04547724726797887, 0.06506464557899415, 0.0, 0.37747527053912144, 0.0, 1.597180466756014, 0.021786738318048823, 0.0, 0.2118020448654148, 0.0, 0.15554853847505667, 0.0, 0.04136365129413757, 0.5296608745347693, 0.0, 0.7720769549905019, 0.9215688443987636, 0.4634048111397331, 0.940527522258481, 0.0, 0.5657631982301625, 0.6444319296650869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8903856634452886, 0.047560961667240526, 0.0020593749349257107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26529685493777405, 0.0007576017002229459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013401757476467992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16826274979803604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003928092025013086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005597961463592589 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.071522350599245, "coverage": 0.9995527024261872, "baseline_score": 21.29566435973129, "spot_peer_score": 42.59917989795842, "peer_archived_score": 18.071522350599245, "baseline_archived_score": 21.29566435973129, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.59917989795842 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719531073.142271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719531073.142271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.787187828289142, 0.21281217171085803 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Related Metaculus question: [Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a \"deepfake\" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17180/deepfake-costs-election-before-2025/)\n\nBoth candidates have recently had exposure to the subject:\n\n- In his interview with Youtube podcaster Logan Paul on June 13, 2024, Donald Trump [discussed](https://youtu.be/xrFdHO7FH8w?si=f-f0AMwAt_S0F5pB&t=2741) deepfakes, describing them as \"disconcerting\" and \"alarming,\" although avoiding specific usage of the word. \n\n- Joe Biden's press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on June 10, 2024, [described](https://wcyb.com/news/nation-world/white-house-claims-recent-viral-videos-of-biden-are-actually-deepfakes-president-joe-biden-karine-jean-pierre-normandy-france-apulia-italy-g7-summit-2024-election-politics) viral videos of Joe Biden appearing confused as \"deepfakes.\" \n\nCNN's current plans are for the debate to be [moderated by](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules/index.html) Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It will be 90 minutes, with two commercial breaks.\n\nSee also: \n\nWashington Post [AI deepfakes threaten to upend global elections. No one can stop them.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/23/ai-deepfake-election-2024-us-india/)\n\n[Purdue profs show how deepfakes could impact 2024 presidential election](https://www.wishtv.com/news/i-team-8/purdue-profs-show-how-deepfakes-could-impact-2024-presidential-election/)" }, { "id": 25459, "title": "Will the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) be lower than 11.5 on June 30, 2024?", "short_title": "Will the exchange rate for the Swedish K", "url_title": "Will the exchange rate for the Swedish K", "slug": "will-the-exchange-rate-for-the-swedish-k", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.549411Z", "published_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.353055Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25459, "title": "Will the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) be lower than 11.5 on June 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.549411Z", "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:55.012235Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "10 years ago, one US Dollar (USD) cost 6,67 Swedish Krona (SEK). Today, June 26 2023, it costs 11,1 SEK. Several academic studies have tried to explain the declining value of SEK using established theories, but come to the conclusion that the SEK is increasingly undervalued during the last 10 years.\n\nIn 2021 the currency experts Philippe Bacchetta and Pauline Chikhani published [On the weakness of the Swedish krona](https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/pov/artiklar/engelska/2021/210319/2021_1-on-the-weakness-of-the-swedish-krona_er.pdf) (Comissioned by The Swedish Riksbank)\n\nBacchetta is Swiss Finance Institute Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Lausanne, and Program Director of the International Macroeconomics and Finance program of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR, London). Chikhani is a doctoral student at the University of Lausanne.\n\nIn 2019 Christos Papahristodoulou published Is There Any Theory that Explains the Swedish Krona (SEK)? (Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, ISSN 2393-5162, Vol. XIV, nr 3(65), s. 760-782)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as YES if the price of one US Dollar (USD) in Swedish Kronas (SEK) is lower than 11.5 on June 30 2024, 13.00, as published on the cross-rate website of the Swedish Riksbank [National Bank](https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/statistics/search-interest--exchange-rates/cross-rates), and NO otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25459, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719245225.241872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719245225.241872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.67 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719302328.113521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719302328.113521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4017652181133319, 0.5982347818866681 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "10 years ago, one US Dollar (USD) cost 6,67 Swedish Krona (SEK). Today, June 26 2023, it costs 11,1 SEK. Several academic studies have tried to explain the declining value of SEK using established theories, but come to the conclusion that the SEK is increasingly undervalued during the last 10 years.\n\nIn 2021 the currency experts Philippe Bacchetta and Pauline Chikhani published [On the weakness of the Swedish krona](https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/pov/artiklar/engelska/2021/210319/2021_1-on-the-weakness-of-the-swedish-krona_er.pdf) (Comissioned by The Swedish Riksbank)\n\nBacchetta is Swiss Finance Institute Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Lausanne, and Program Director of the International Macroeconomics and Finance program of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR, London). Chikhani is a doctoral student at the University of Lausanne.\n\nIn 2019 Christos Papahristodoulou published Is There Any Theory that Explains the Swedish Krona (SEK)? (Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, ISSN 2393-5162, Vol. XIV, nr 3(65), s. 760-782)" }, { "id": 25457, "title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consumers between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31?", "short_title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consu", "url_title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consu", "slug": "will-tesla-bots-be-available-to-us-consu", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.540246Z", "published_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.719473Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25457, "title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consumers between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31?", "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.540246Z", "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's AI Day event, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot. According to The Verge, Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype sometime next year. The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla's experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company's Autopilot driver assistance software. Musk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is intended to be friendly, but that Tesla is designing the robot at a mechanical level so that you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it. It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face. The robots will be designed to handle tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring, the company's website reads. I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as YES if the earliest date on which general US consumers can take delivery from Tesla, Inc. a device having characteristics broadly in line with those of the proposed Tesla Bot is between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31, and NO otherwise. In particular, the device must be a humanoid robot, and must be able to perform some physical tasks upon being given directions to do so - a remote-controlled device manually operated by a human will not count. Note that this question will resolve as the first date on which general consumers physically possess the device, having purchased it, leased it, licensed it, or otherwise contracted with Tesla for physical custody of it, not on the date on which a deposit can be placed, a device can be ordered, pre-ordered, or otherwise contracted for. The consumers must be legally entitled to operate the device; a right to possess but not operate the device will not count.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25457, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's AI Day event, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot. According to The Verge, Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype sometime next year. The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla's experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company's Autopilot driver assistance software. Musk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is intended to be friendly, but that Tesla is designing the robot at a mechanical level so that you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it. It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face. The robots will be designed to handle tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring, the company's website reads. I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can." }, { "id": 25458, "title": "Will the last communication from Voyager 1 be between 2025-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "short_title": "Will the last communication from Voyager", "url_title": "Will the last communication from Voyager", "slug": "will-the-last-communication-from-voyager", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.540208Z", "published_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.239125Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25458, "title": "Will the last communication from Voyager 1 be between 2025-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.540208Z", "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to 'phone home' even from its position beyond the heliosheath. How we keep in touch with this little spaceship that could--currently 141 AUs away from us and counting, as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As NASA explains: 'The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.' Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports: 'The Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts' electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. 'These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,' she said. 'Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.' The spacecrafts' transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. 'One day we'll be looking for the signal and we won't hear it anymore,' Dodd said. What will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including this cool passage: 'About [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don't know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers' current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records], humanity's message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants.'", "resolution_criteria": "Question will resolve as YES if the last credible signal from Voyager 1 is received between 2025-12-31 and 2032-12-31, after no signal has been received for one year, and NO otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25458, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to 'phone home' even from its position beyond the heliosheath. How we keep in touch with this little spaceship that could--currently 141 AUs away from us and counting, as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As NASA explains: 'The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.' Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports: 'The Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts' electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. 'These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,' she said. 'Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.' The spacecrafts' transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. 'One day we'll be looking for the signal and we won't hear it anymore,' Dodd said. What will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including this cool passage: 'About [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don't know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers' current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records], humanity's message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants.'" }, { "id": 25456, "title": "Will a West Balkan state join the EU between 2025-01-01 and 2040-01-01?", "short_title": "Will a West Balkan state join the EU bet", "url_title": "Will a West Balkan state join the EU bet", "slug": "will-a-west-balkan-state-join-the-eu-bet", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.531353Z", "published_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.556613Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25456, "title": "Will a West Balkan state join the EU between 2025-01-01 and 2040-01-01?", "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.531353Z", "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The European Union currently consists of 27 member states. The most recent state to join was Croatia on July 1, 2013, while Bulgaria and Romania joined on January 1, 2007 and 10 states joined on May 1, 2004. The UK left in 2020, reducing the number of members from 28 to 27. Other states could join the EU. The European Commission website states that Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are candidate countries. It also lists Bosnia & Herzegovina and Kosovo as potential candidates which have a clear prospect of joining the EU in the future but have not yet been granted candidate country status.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as YES if any of the following states joins the EU between 2025-01-01 and 2040-01-01: Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo or any new state within the May 2021 territory of those 6 entities. The question will resolve as the date of accession itself, rather than e.g. the signing of a Treaty of Accession. Resolution will require both credible media reports and a European Commission source. The incorporation of any part of any of the entities listed into an existing member state would not count to resolve the question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25456, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The European Union currently consists of 27 member states. The most recent state to join was Croatia on July 1, 2013, while Bulgaria and Romania joined on January 1, 2007 and 10 states joined on May 1, 2004. The UK left in 2020, reducing the number of members from 28 to 27. Other states could join the EU. The European Commission website states that Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are candidate countries. It also lists Bosnia & Herzegovina and Kosovo as potential candidates which have a clear prospect of joining the EU in the future but have not yet been granted candidate country status." }, { "id": 25416, "title": "Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter?", "url_title": "Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter?", "slug": "will-joe-biden-grant-clemency-to-hunter", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-12T23:41:40.832596Z", "published_at": "2024-06-18T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.478950Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-18T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-18T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 114, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25416, "title": "Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-06-12T23:41:40.832596Z", "open_time": "2024-06-18T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-21T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-02T00:58:57.715229Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 11, 2024, Hunter Biden, son of US President Joe Biden, [was convicted](https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-gun-trial-federal-charges-delaware-5dd8a9380235c6360a1ddb691ef24a06) of all three felony charges stemming from falsely certifying he was not illegally using or addicted to controlled narcotics.\n\nPresident Biden [said \"Yes\"](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-tells-muir-wouldnt-pardon-son-hunter/story?id=110904482) to both questions when asked by ABC News whether he would accept the court's ruling and whether he would rule out pardoning Hunter. Regarding the question of whether Biden would commute the sentence of his son, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was non-committal, [saying](https://apnews.com/article/president-joe-biden-hunter-gun-conviction-commutation-ed69379b56bd1d63f3ddd0d79438746c) \"I just don’t have anything beyond that\" in response to a question on the topic. \n\nJoe Biden's first term ends on January 20, 2025, and if he loses the election, it is the last day on which he can grant clemencies. Through June 12, 2024, Biden had issued 24 pardons and 129 commutations to individuals, according to the DOJ's databases. Additionally, on October 6, 2022, he issued a [proclamation](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/presidential-proclamation-marijuana-possession) offering a blanket pardon to anyone convicted federally or in Washington, D.C., for crimes related to marijuana possession, which covered over 6,500 individuals, [according to](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/biden-to-pardon-all-prior-federal-offenses-of-simple-marijuana-possession-.html) the White House.\n\nIf President Biden wins a 2nd term and does not grant clemency to Hunter before January 21, 2025, this question will likely be renewed for his 2nd term, depending on forecaster interest.", "resolution_criteria": "If Joe Biden grants any clemency to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025, this question resolves as **Yes**. If this event does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThe President of the United States's clemency actions consist of either pardons of people or commutations of their sentences. This question therefore resolves based on these two databases from the Department of Justice: \n\n1. [Pardons Granted](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-joseph-biden-2021-present) \n2. [Commutations Granted](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/commutations-granted-president-joseph-biden-2021-present) \n\nIf those resources are unavailable but the pardon or commutation unambiguously happened (for example in the case of a blanket pardon which covers Hunter Biden in its scope, discussed in the Fine Print), then this question may resolve based on other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "In case of partial pardons or clemencies (for example if Hunter Biden is pardoned for one charge but not the others), this question still resolves as Yes.\n\nClemency will only count if it is publicly disclosed. Therefore, secret pardons will not count unless they are publicly disclosed before January 21, 2025.\n\nIf a wide-reaching blanket pardon or commutation proclamation includes Hunter Biden within its scope, then this question will resolve as Yes. For example, in October 2022 Joe Biden issued a [proclamation](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/presidential-proclamation-marijuana-possession) that \"announced a full, unconditional, and categorical pardon for certain prior federal and D.C. offenses of simple possession of marijuana.\" To take a hypothetical example based on this, if President Biden pardons all firearms purchasers who were unlawful users of or addicted to controlled substances, which is one of the [felony charges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weiss_special_counsel_investigation#Special_counsel_and_firearm_indictment) for which Hunter was convicted, then this would resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 25416, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733100529.785453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.516 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733100529.785453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.516 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.37182007370156017 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.11286730788894205, 1.0493065855498576, 0.16192468556616407, 0.20820915709712634, 0.4580959775949231, 0.30681597161417923, 0.08102804197234353, 0.4815954290908546, 0.0035880521054971015, 1.5167115704955272, 2.0585023727355862, 0.00013664899431769823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3851290144890181, 0.7156846287111164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5325141480014763, 0.6702721948220743, 0.0, 0.5890529285135404, 0.0, 0.11708390803901265, 0.019823381585149194, 0.1039811602810989, 0.07206795304728328, 0.4133951069475082, 0.0, 0.675202221351596, 0.07669735436908495, 0.012461046076939902, 0.6294085827390126, 0.06353667767035587, 0.41157529974478024, 0.1751782248799461, 0.8270920337917759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7101449842243808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37288133311399374, 0.0, 0.02294876372005778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03205632296393693, 0.7883280510469263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023635982998960903, 0.00692033179503728, 0.0, 0.06768491944159849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20508504545130907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21877483394325103, 0.0, 1.3132479372377355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0948675314425023 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -105.55519896625474, "peer_score": 57.319958180966196, "coverage": 0.7718401749322543, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9993299107017606, "spot_peer_score": 42.354478522229826, "baseline_archived_score": -105.55519896625474, "peer_archived_score": 57.319958180966196, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.354478522229826 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289312.260767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289312.260767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7117189547436233, 0.28828104525637666 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 513, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 11, 2024, Hunter Biden, son of US President Joe Biden, [was convicted](https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-gun-trial-federal-charges-delaware-5dd8a9380235c6360a1ddb691ef24a06) of all three felony charges stemming from falsely certifying he was not illegally using or addicted to controlled narcotics.\n\nPresident Biden [said \"Yes\"](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-tells-muir-wouldnt-pardon-son-hunter/story?id=110904482) to both questions when asked by ABC News whether he would accept the court's ruling and whether he would rule out pardoning Hunter. Regarding the question of whether Biden would commute the sentence of his son, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was non-committal, [saying](https://apnews.com/article/president-joe-biden-hunter-gun-conviction-commutation-ed69379b56bd1d63f3ddd0d79438746c) \"I just don’t have anything beyond that\" in response to a question on the topic. \n\nJoe Biden's first term ends on January 20, 2025, and if he loses the election, it is the last day on which he can grant clemencies. Through June 12, 2024, Biden had issued 24 pardons and 129 commutations to individuals, according to the DOJ's databases. Additionally, on October 6, 2022, he issued a [proclamation](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/presidential-proclamation-marijuana-possession) offering a blanket pardon to anyone convicted federally or in Washington, D.C., for crimes related to marijuana possession, which covered over 6,500 individuals, [according to](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/biden-to-pardon-all-prior-federal-offenses-of-simple-marijuana-possession-.html) the White House.\n\nIf President Biden wins a 2nd term and does not grant clemency to Hunter before January 21, 2025, this question will likely be renewed for his 2nd term, depending on forecaster interest." }, { "id": 25410, "title": "Will the Republicans Party of France (Les Républicains) form a political alliance with the National Rally for the 2024 French legislative election?", "short_title": "Will French Republicans/National Rally Ally?", "url_title": "Will French Republicans/National Rally Ally?", "slug": "will-french-republicansnational-rally-ally", 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"2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25410, "title": "Will the Republicans Party of France (Les Républicains) form a political alliance with the National Rally for the 2024 French legislative election?", "created_at": "2024-06-12T16:43:52.309671Z", "open_time": "2024-06-13T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-15T06:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-15T06:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T19:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T19:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-02T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/world/europe/france-conservatives-far-right-alliance.html):\n\n>The head of France’s conservative party on Tuesday *(June 12, 2024)* called for an alliance with the far right in upcoming snap elections, breaking a longstanding taboo and throwing his party into deep turmoil as the shock waves from President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the lower house of Parliament coursed through the country.\n\nIn France, due to the incentives of the country's electoral system, coalitions are [generally necessary](https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03359160) prior to the election rather than afterwards as is the case in most parliamentary democracies. National Rally is #1 in the [polling averages](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/), which is creating unprecedented incentives for mainstream French conservatives, who may be faced with the choice of either allying with National Rally if they want to regain power or else in practical terms facing a higher probability of losing the election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before June 30, 2024, an electoral alliance or coalition agreement is officially announced between the Republicans Party (Les Républicains) and National Rally (Rassemblement National) for the upcoming [French legislative election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election), according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If no such agreement is announced, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Historically, the Republicans and National Rally have undergone name changes. Any name changes will not affect resolution of this question.", "post_id": 25410, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719655761.829543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719655761.829543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02678981181048299 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.231802913160177, 6.022229734776469, 1.515356318456761, 0.35775041776788324, 0.08381412020160633, 0.4150373665733155, 0.4523544567497313, 0.3451474356554012, 0.19285133479472366, 0.0, 0.2162374323373627, 0.0, 0.05440657924985089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002292301674078456, 0.017101445461516773, 0.0037945794224233387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015529911626825993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025043422762740086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13816622619390675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014925286850224059, 0.002996681779674101, 0.019501452486500002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719655761.872004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719655761.872004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 194, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/world/europe/france-conservatives-far-right-alliance.html):\n\n>The head of France’s conservative party on Tuesday *(June 12, 2024)* called for an alliance with the far right in upcoming snap elections, breaking a longstanding taboo and throwing his party into deep turmoil as the shock waves from President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the lower house of Parliament coursed through the country.\n\nIn France, due to the incentives of the country's electoral system, coalitions are [generally necessary](https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03359160) prior to the election rather than afterwards as is the case in most parliamentary democracies. National Rally is #1 in the [polling averages](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/), which is creating unprecedented incentives for mainstream French conservatives, who may be faced with the choice of either allying with National Rally if they want to regain power or else in practical terms facing a higher probability of losing the election." }, { "id": 25393, "title": "Sníží do konce roku 2025 aspoň jedna z agentur Moody's, Fitch nebo S&P rating ČR o alespoň 1 stupeň?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "snizi-do-konce-roku-2025-aspon-jedna-z-agentur-moodys-fitch-nebo-sp-rating-cr-o-alespon-1-stupen", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T17:34:35.057113Z", "published_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T18:27:05.295198Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 25393, "title": "Sníží do konce roku 2025 aspoň jedna z agentur Moody's, Fitch nebo S&P rating ČR o alespoň 1 stupeň?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T17:34:35.057113Z", "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Česká republika dlouhodobě získává vysoké hodnocení ze strany ratingových agentur (historie k nahlédnutí např. [zde](https://www.cnb.cz/cs/o_cnb/mezinarodni-vztahy/srovnavaci-tabulka/)). Ve výhledech je země hodnocená jako \"\"stabilní\"\". V listopadu minulého roku agentura Moody's výhled [změnila](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/ministerstvo/media/tiskove-zpravy/2023/moodys-zlepsila-vyhled-pro-rating-cr-na--8222stabi-53810#:~:text=Agentura%20Moody's%20Investors%20Service%20zm%C4%9Bnila,zem%C4%9B%20na%20investi%C4%8Dn%C3%ADm%20stupni%20Aa3.) z \"\"negativního\"\" právě na stabilní, který si drží dodnes. Obecně je možné říci, že rating České republiky neprochází žádnými závratnými změnami - od roku 2019 se nezměnil u žádné ze tří sledovaných agentur, i dříve však bylo změn poskrovnu. K datu zadání otázky je rating ČR u agentury Moody's Aa3, u agentur S&P a Fitch shodně AA-.\n\nJedním z důvodů je dlouhodobě nízká zadluženost České republiky, podle dat [Eurostatu](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-22042024-bp#:~:text=The%20highest%20ratios%20of%20government,%25)%20and%20Denmark%20(29.3%25).) dosahuje pouze úrovně 44% HDP, zatímco průměr v rámci EU je 81,7%. Český rozpočet v minulém roce hospodařil se [schodkem](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/ministerstvo/media/tiskove-zpravy/2024/pokladni-plneni-sr-54299) 288,5 miliard korun. [Strukturální](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/rozpoctova-politika/makroekonomika/fiskalni-vyhled/2023/fiskalni-vyhled-cr-listopad-2023-53585#:~:text=Hodnota%20struktur%C3%A1ln%C3%ADho%20deficitu%20ve%20v%C3%BD%C5%A1i,maxim%C3%A1ln%C4%9B%201%2C75%20%25%20HDP.) deficit byl pak k závěru minulého roku ve výši 2,5% s plánem se do roku 2026 dostat na hodnotu 1,75%. Rozpočtová pravidla v ČR si můžete projít na [webu](https://www.rozpoctovarada.cz/o-verejnych-financich/vse-o-verejnych-financich/) Národní ekonomické rady vlády (NERV).", "resolution_criteria": "Otázku vyhodnotíme podle ratingů zveřejněných samotnými agenturami, případně z webových stránek [MFČR](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/rozpoctova-politika/rizeni-statniho-dluhu/zakladni-informace/rating) a nebo [ČNB](https://www.cnb.cz/cs/o_cnb/mezinarodni-vztahy/srovnavaci-tabulka/).", "fine_print": "Fine print: Stupněm se myslí stupně popsané např. na webu [ČNB](https://www.cnb.cz/cs/o_cnb/mezinarodni-vztahy/srovnavaci-tabulka/) (např. u agentury Fitch by byl posun o jeden stupeň z AAA na AA+). \n\nPokud by došlo ke změně ratingového názvosloví, která by byla nekompatibilní s aktuálně platným systémem, otázku anulujeme.", "post_id": 25393, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761071214.919185, "end_time": 1763753216.156, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761071214.919185, "end_time": 1763753216.156, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.09519476719883604 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Česká republika dlouhodobě získává vysoké hodnocení ze strany ratingových agentur (historie k nahlédnutí např. [zde](https://www.cnb.cz/cs/o_cnb/mezinarodni-vztahy/srovnavaci-tabulka/)). Ve výhledech je země hodnocená jako \"\"stabilní\"\". V listopadu minulého roku agentura Moody's výhled [změnila](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/ministerstvo/media/tiskove-zpravy/2023/moodys-zlepsila-vyhled-pro-rating-cr-na--8222stabi-53810#:~:text=Agentura%20Moody's%20Investors%20Service%20zm%C4%9Bnila,zem%C4%9B%20na%20investi%C4%8Dn%C3%ADm%20stupni%20Aa3.) z \"\"negativního\"\" právě na stabilní, který si drží dodnes. Obecně je možné říci, že rating České republiky neprochází žádnými závratnými změnami - od roku 2019 se nezměnil u žádné ze tří sledovaných agentur, i dříve však bylo změn poskrovnu. K datu zadání otázky je rating ČR u agentury Moody's Aa3, u agentur S&P a Fitch shodně AA-.\n\nJedním z důvodů je dlouhodobě nízká zadluženost České republiky, podle dat [Eurostatu](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-22042024-bp#:~:text=The%20highest%20ratios%20of%20government,%25)%20and%20Denmark%20(29.3%25).) dosahuje pouze úrovně 44% HDP, zatímco průměr v rámci EU je 81,7%. Český rozpočet v minulém roce hospodařil se [schodkem](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/ministerstvo/media/tiskove-zpravy/2024/pokladni-plneni-sr-54299) 288,5 miliard korun. [Strukturální](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/rozpoctova-politika/makroekonomika/fiskalni-vyhled/2023/fiskalni-vyhled-cr-listopad-2023-53585#:~:text=Hodnota%20struktur%C3%A1ln%C3%ADho%20deficitu%20ve%20v%C3%BD%C5%A1i,maxim%C3%A1ln%C4%9B%201%2C75%20%25%20HDP.) deficit byl pak k závěru minulého roku ve výši 2,5% s plánem se do roku 2026 dostat na hodnotu 1,75%. Rozpočtová pravidla v ČR si můžete projít na [webu](https://www.rozpoctovarada.cz/o-verejnych-financich/vse-o-verejnych-financich/) Národní ekonomické rady vlády (NERV)." }, { "id": 25386, "title": "Will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon between 2024-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "short_title": "Will SpaceX launch humans around the Moo", "url_title": "Will SpaceX launch humans around the Moo", "slug": "will-spacex-launch-humans-around-the-moo", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.062832Z", "published_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.612106Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25386, "title": "Will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon between 2024-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.062832Z", "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the dearMoon project flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch in 2018 on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again. Besides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle in consideration for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus predicts that mission will occur in 2028.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a vehicle primarily owned, operated, or constructed by SpaceX simultaneously has at least one living human aboard and is within 58,000 km of the Moon's surface and the date is between 2024-12-31 and 2032-12-31. The vehicle need not have launched with humans aboard, nor need it enter orbit around nor land on the Moon. For comparison, Apollo 13 carried humans within 158 km of the Moon's surface without landing on or entering orbit around the Moon.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25386, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the dearMoon project flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch in 2018 on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again. Besides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle in consideration for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus predicts that mission will occur in 2028." }, { "id": 25387, "title": "Will the last communication from Voyager 1 be between 2028-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "short_title": "Will the last communication from Voyager", "url_title": "Will the last communication from Voyager", "slug": "will-the-last-communication-from-voyager", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.061909Z", "published_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.589864Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25387, "title": "Will the last communication from Voyager 1 be between 2028-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.061909Z", "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to 'phone home' even from its position beyond the heliosheath. How we keep in touch with this little spaceship that could--currently 141 AUs away from us and counting, as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As NASA explains: 'The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.' Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports: 'The Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts' electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. 'These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,' she said. 'Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.' The spacecrafts' transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. 'One day we'll be looking for the signal and we won't hear it anymore,' Dodd said. What will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including this cool passage: 'About [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don't know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers' current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records], humanity's message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants.'", "resolution_criteria": "Question will resolve as YES if the last credible signal from Voyager 1 is received between 2028-12-31 and 2032-12-31, after no signal has been received for one year, and NO otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25387, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to 'phone home' even from its position beyond the heliosheath. How we keep in touch with this little spaceship that could--currently 141 AUs away from us and counting, as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As NASA explains: 'The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.' Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports: 'The Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts' electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. 'These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,' she said. 'Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.' The spacecrafts' transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. 'One day we'll be looking for the signal and we won't hear it anymore,' Dodd said. What will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including this cool passage: 'About [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don't know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers' current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records], humanity's message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants.'" }, { "id": 25385, "title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consumers between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31?", "short_title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consu", "url_title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consu", "slug": "will-tesla-bots-be-available-to-us-consu", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.061302Z", "published_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.529185Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25385, "title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consumers between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.061302Z", "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's AI Day event, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot. According to The Verge, Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype sometime next year. The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla's experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company's Autopilot driver assistance software. Musk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is intended to be friendly, but that Tesla is designing the robot at a mechanical level so that you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it. It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face. The robots will be designed to handle tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring, the company's website reads. I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as YES if the earliest date on which general US consumers can take delivery from Tesla, Inc. a device having characteristics broadly in line with those of the proposed Tesla Bot is between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31, and NO otherwise. In particular, the device must be a humanoid robot, and must be able to perform some physical tasks upon being given directions to do so - a remote-controlled device manually operated by a human will not count. Note that this question will resolve as the first date on which general consumers physically possess the device, having purchased it, leased it, licensed it, or otherwise contracted with Tesla for physical custody of it, not on the date on which a deposit can be placed, a device can be ordered, pre-ordered, or otherwise contracted for. The consumers must be legally entitled to operate the device; a right to possess but not operate the device will not count.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25385, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's AI Day event, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot. According to The Verge, Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype sometime next year. The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla's experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company's Autopilot driver assistance software. Musk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is intended to be friendly, but that Tesla is designing the robot at a mechanical level so that you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it. It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face. The robots will be designed to handle tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring, the company's website reads. I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can." }, { "id": 25379, "title": "Dojde do konce roku 2025 k demonstraci, které se podle odhadů relevantních orgánů zúčastní více než 100 000 lidí?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "dojde-do-konce-roku-2025-k-demonstraci-ktere-se-podle-odhadu-relevantnich-organu-zucastni-vice-nez-100-000-lidi", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T14:45:33.244015Z", "published_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.609288Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 25379, "title": "Dojde do konce roku 2025 k demonstraci, které se podle odhadů relevantních orgánů zúčastní více než 100 000 lidí?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T14:45:33.244015Z", "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "V České republice poměrně často dochází k různým demonstracím, manifestacím či jiným hromadným občanským shromážděním. Největší z nich zpravidla souvisí s politickou situací v zemi. \n\nZároveň ale platí, že jen málo demonstrací v historii ČR prokazatelně překonalo hranici 100 000 účastníků (potvrzenou jak organizátory, tak relevantními organizacemi - např. Policie ČR, mobilní operátoři, ...). Níže je výčet většiny velkých demonstrací od vzniku samostatné České republiky.\n\n**Demonstrace 3. prosince 1999** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace proti Václavu Klausovi a Miloši Zemanovi během trvání Opoziční smlouvy.\n\n**Demonstrace 3. ledna 2001** (cca 100 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace na podporu vzpoury v České televizi a za zrušení Opoziční smlouvy.\n\n**Demonstrace 21. dubna 2012** (cca 80 000-120 000 demonstrantů) - Nesouhlas s fiskální politikou premiéra Petra Nečase a ministra financí Miroslava Kalouska.\n\n**Demonstrace 22. května 2019** (cca 50 000-70 000 demonstrantů) - 4. demonstrace v řadě proti jmenování Marie Benešové ministryní spravedlnosti a proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi.\n\n**Demonstrace 4. června 2019** (cca 70 000-120 000 demonstrantů) - 6. demonstrace v řadě proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi a ministryni spravedlnosti Marii Benešové.\n\n**Demonstrace 16. listopadu 2019** (cca 250 000-257 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace „Letná 2“ proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi a za zdravější demokracii. \n\n**Demonstrace 3. září 2022** (cca 70 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 28. září 2022** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Druhá demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 28. října 2022** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Třetí demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 11. března 2023** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí organizovaná stranou PRO 2022.\n\n**Demonstrace 16. dubna 2023** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Druhá demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí organizovaná stranou PRO 2022.\n\nV otázce nás zajímají pouze demonstrace svolané s konkrétní agendou (politickou a nebo jinou). Poměrný dobrý výčet demonstrací je k nalezení např. [zde](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demonstrace_(protest)).", "resolution_criteria": "Otázku vyhodnotíme podle odhadů poskytnutých organizátory demonstrace, Policií ČR a mobilními operátory.", "fine_print": "Pro vyhodnocení budeme zvažovat pouze demonstrace, kde se v jedné lokalitě shromáždí potřebný počet osob. Série demonstrací po celé zemi tak nebude znamenat pozitivní vyhodnocení ani v případě, že počet účastníků za všechny souběžně běžící demonstrace překročí počet 100 000 osob. \n\nZároveň pro pozitivní vyhodnocení nebudeme zvažovat velkou společenskou nebo kulturní akci, která by se v průběhu přetavila v demonstraci.", "post_id": 25379, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730134990.455855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730134990.455855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.13344926228231604 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 1.0870998462289188, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 1.9879055898002704, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.1403260614666047, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.2726126670553227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "V České republice poměrně často dochází k různým demonstracím, manifestacím či jiným hromadným občanským shromážděním. Největší z nich zpravidla souvisí s politickou situací v zemi. \n\nZároveň ale platí, že jen málo demonstrací v historii ČR prokazatelně překonalo hranici 100 000 účastníků (potvrzenou jak organizátory, tak relevantními organizacemi - např. Policie ČR, mobilní operátoři, ...). Níže je výčet většiny velkých demonstrací od vzniku samostatné České republiky.\n\n**Demonstrace 3. prosince 1999** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace proti Václavu Klausovi a Miloši Zemanovi během trvání Opoziční smlouvy.\n\n**Demonstrace 3. ledna 2001** (cca 100 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace na podporu vzpoury v České televizi a za zrušení Opoziční smlouvy.\n\n**Demonstrace 21. dubna 2012** (cca 80 000-120 000 demonstrantů) - Nesouhlas s fiskální politikou premiéra Petra Nečase a ministra financí Miroslava Kalouska.\n\n**Demonstrace 22. května 2019** (cca 50 000-70 000 demonstrantů) - 4. demonstrace v řadě proti jmenování Marie Benešové ministryní spravedlnosti a proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi.\n\n**Demonstrace 4. června 2019** (cca 70 000-120 000 demonstrantů) - 6. demonstrace v řadě proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi a ministryni spravedlnosti Marii Benešové.\n\n**Demonstrace 16. listopadu 2019** (cca 250 000-257 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace „Letná 2“ proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi a za zdravější demokracii. \n\n**Demonstrace 3. září 2022** (cca 70 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 28. září 2022** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Druhá demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 28. října 2022** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Třetí demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 11. března 2023** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí organizovaná stranou PRO 2022.\n\n**Demonstrace 16. dubna 2023** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Druhá demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí organizovaná stranou PRO 2022.\n\nV otázce nás zajímají pouze demonstrace svolané s konkrétní agendou (politickou a nebo jinou). Poměrný dobrý výčet demonstrací je k nalezení např. [zde](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demonstrace_(protest))." }, { "id": 25378, "title": "Dojde v ČR do konce roku 2025 k úmyslnému násilnému činu jednotlivce, ve kterém zahyne více než 5 osob?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "dojde-v-cr-do-konce-roku-2025-k-umyslnemu-nasilnemu-cinu-jednotlivce-ve-kterem-zahyne-vice-nez-5-osob", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T14:40:47.572528Z", "published_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.700753Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 25378, "title": "Dojde v ČR do konce roku 2025 k úmyslnému násilnému činu jednotlivce, ve kterém zahyne více než 5 osob?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T14:40:47.572528Z", "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Česká republika je dlouhodobě považována za jednu z nejbezpečnějších zemí na světě. V žebříčku Global Peace Index (GPI) se v [posledním měření](https://www.visionofhumanity.org/maps/#/) (2023) umístila na 12. místě. Česká republika je také jednou ze zemí, kde nikdy nedošlo k teroristickému útoku, kde by se k činům jednotlivce nebo skupiny přihlásilo konkrétní hnutí s cílem prosadit svou konkrétní ideologickou agendu. Masové násilné činy, resp. útoky tzv. \"osamělých vlků\" se však zemi nevyhýbají, posledním takovým případem byl tragický útok na Filozofické fakultě Karlovy univerzity, nejhorší takový útok v historii země. \n\nPrávě před útoky \"osamělých vlků\" varuje také BIS, například ve své [výroční zprávě](https://www.bis.cz/vyrocni-zpravy/vyrocni-zprava-bezpecnostni-informacni-sluzby-za-rok-2022-2cd547c8.html) za rok 2022, kde tento typ nebezpečí popisuje jako větší hrozbu pro ČR, než například islamistický terorismus. Výčet většiny masových vrahů je k dispozici například [zde](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seznam_%C4%8Desk%C3%BDch_masov%C3%BDch_vrah%C5%AF).", "resolution_criteria": "Otázku vyhodnotíme podle oficiálních tiskových zpráv nebo prohlášení bezpečnostních složek, případně z ověřených informací zveřejněných důvěryhodnými českými médii.", "fine_print": "Za úmyslný čin považujeme takový, který byl takto buď zhodnocen justičním systémem (např. soudní znalci) a nebo za takový byl prohlášen vyšetřovacími složkami (Policie ČR). Podobně za úmyslný čin budeme považovat takové činy, které ze své podstaty vyžadují přípravu (např. sestavování výbušného zařízení, ...).\n\nV rámci otázky směřujeme na incident, při kterém dojde k úmrtím obětí útočníka bez výrazného časového odstupu.", "post_id": 25378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735487960.921367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735487960.921367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.27397064019504475 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.1411158958626295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3775654150354807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Česká republika je dlouhodobě považována za jednu z nejbezpečnějších zemí na světě. V žebříčku Global Peace Index (GPI) se v [posledním měření](https://www.visionofhumanity.org/maps/#/) (2023) umístila na 12. místě. Česká republika je také jednou ze zemí, kde nikdy nedošlo k teroristickému útoku, kde by se k činům jednotlivce nebo skupiny přihlásilo konkrétní hnutí s cílem prosadit svou konkrétní ideologickou agendu. Masové násilné činy, resp. útoky tzv. \"osamělých vlků\" se však zemi nevyhýbají, posledním takovým případem byl tragický útok na Filozofické fakultě Karlovy univerzity, nejhorší takový útok v historii země. \n\nPrávě před útoky \"osamělých vlků\" varuje také BIS, například ve své [výroční zprávě](https://www.bis.cz/vyrocni-zpravy/vyrocni-zprava-bezpecnostni-informacni-sluzby-za-rok-2022-2cd547c8.html) za rok 2022, kde tento typ nebezpečí popisuje jako větší hrozbu pro ČR, než například islamistický terorismus. Výčet většiny masových vrahů je k dispozici například [zde](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seznam_%C4%8Desk%C3%BDch_masov%C3%BDch_vrah%C5%AF)." } ] }
