Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=300
{ "count": 5887, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=320", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=280", "results": [ { "id": 38932, "title": "Will the H-1B visa lottery system be replaced with a nonrandom selection process for fiscal year 2027?", "short_title": "Will the H-1B lottery system be changed for FY2027?", "url_title": "Will the H-1B lottery system be changed for FY2027?", "slug": "will-the-h-1b-lottery-system-be-changed-for-fy2027", "author_id": 210578, "author_username": "jubinjohnind", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-25T11:07:37.567317Z", "published_at": "2025-08-06T02:26:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:55:01.469386Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-06T02:27:25.922109Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-02T11:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-30T11:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-07T02:26:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38274, "title": "Will the H-1B visa lottery system be replaced with a nonrandom selection process for fiscal year 2027?", "created_at": "2025-07-25T11:07:37.567836Z", "open_time": "2025-08-07T02:26:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-11T02:26:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-11T02:26:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-30T11:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-02T11:04:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-02T11:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [H-1B visa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B_visa) program currently allocates [85,000 visas](https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations/h-1b-electronic-registration-process) annually (65,000 under the regular cap plus 20,000 for advanced-degree holders) through a random lottery system. During Trump's first term, his administration imposed a rule that made allocation of H-1B visas salary-based, scrapping the lottery used to award visas, though this rule never took effect and was withdrawn by the Biden administration. \n\nThe Trump administration has now once again [signaled major changes](https://insider.govtech.com/california/news/trump-administration-signals-major-changes-to-h-1b-visa-criteria) to H-1B visa criteria, with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services notifying the Office of Management and Budget of a proposed rule involving a \"weighted selection process\" for the visa. Under the new proposal, the current random lottery would be [replaced with a wage-based system](https://www.rnlawgroup.com/proposed-h%E2%80%911b-rule-would-replace-lottery-with-wage-based-selection/) that gives priority to higher-paying jobs.\n\nIt is likely too late for significant changes to be made to the FY 2026 H-1B lottery process. The registration period for the FY 2027 H-1B selection is [expected to begin in March 2026](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2025/07/21/new-trump-immigration-policy-ending-the-h-1b-visa-lottery/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for fiscal year 2027, the random H-1B visa lottery system is replaced by an alternative selection method that employs factors other than random chance, according to official USCIS announcements, federal regulations published in the Federal Register, or other official government sources.", "fine_print": "A **Yes** resolution does not require the total elimination of random chance. For example, if a hybrid system is implemented where random chance is used within wage or merit tiers, this question would still resolve as **Yes** because the primary selection mechanism would no longer be purely random. But if only minor procedural changes are made, while random chance remains the selection mechanism, the question will resolve as **No**. Similarly, changes to registration fees or eligibility criteria that do not alter the fundamental random selection mechanism would not cause this to resolve as **Yes**.\n\nAny delays in implementation or legal challenges that prevent a new system from being used for FY2027 selections would cause this to resolve as **No**.\n\nThis question specifically concerns the initial selection process for FY2027, not subsequent processes for unused visas.", "post_id": 38932, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757292219.475, "end_time": 1757829454.867, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757292219.475, "end_time": 1757829454.867, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7591022580884006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3340794910464138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5176266504557887 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [H-1B visa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B_visa) program currently allocates [85,000 visas](https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations/h-1b-electronic-registration-process) annually (65,000 under the regular cap plus 20,000 for advanced-degree holders) through a random lottery system. During Trump's first term, his administration imposed a rule that made allocation of H-1B visas salary-based, scrapping the lottery used to award visas, though this rule never took effect and was withdrawn by the Biden administration. \n\nThe Trump administration has now once again [signaled major changes](https://insider.govtech.com/california/news/trump-administration-signals-major-changes-to-h-1b-visa-criteria) to H-1B visa criteria, with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services notifying the Office of Management and Budget of a proposed rule involving a \"weighted selection process\" for the visa. Under the new proposal, the current random lottery would be [replaced with a wage-based system](https://www.rnlawgroup.com/proposed-h%E2%80%911b-rule-would-replace-lottery-with-wage-based-selection/) that gives priority to higher-paying jobs.\n\nIt is likely too late for significant changes to be made to the FY 2026 H-1B lottery process. The registration period for the FY 2027 H-1B selection is [expected to begin in March 2026](https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2025/07/21/new-trump-immigration-policy-ending-the-h-1b-visa-lottery/)." }, { "id": 38922, "title": "Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis in 2025?", "slug": "will-omar-fateh-be-elected-mayor-of-minneapolis-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-24T12:52:55.985854Z", "published_at": "2025-07-24T15:28:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T01:11:01.146729Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-24T15:32:16.355927Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-24T15:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38271, "title": "Will Omar Fateh be elected mayor of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-24T12:52:55.986328Z", "open_time": "2025-07-24T15:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-25T15:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-25T15:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Washington Post (July 24, 2025): [Is a Mamdani repeat coming to the Midwest? A democratic socialist is getting a boost in Minnesota.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/is-a-mamdani-repeat-coming-to-the-midwest-a-democratic-socialist-is-getting-a-boost-in-minnesota/ar-AA1JcfEP)\n\n> The Democratic Party in Minneapolis over the weekend endorsed a democratic socialist over the two-term incumbent in the city’s mayoral race, the latest indicator of increased momentum for the progressive left in local races across the country.\n\n> Delegates of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota’s most populous city on Saturday threw their support behind state Sen. Omar Fateh, who defeated Mayor Jacob Frey, at the party’s convention. The endorsement comes less than a month after Zohran Mamdani, also a democratic socialist and state lawmaker, won the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York.\n\n> The mayoral race is a ranked-choice election, like in New York, and the general election will take place in November when all candidates will compete on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. A Democrat is expected to win the race, as Minneapolis is a heavily Democratic city that has been led by Democratic mayors for more than 47 years.\n\n> While several candidates are running, the DFL endorsement effectively pits a democratic socialist against a relatively more moderate Frey. The mayoral race is far from over, according to political observers — but the endorsement does boost Fateh’s profile. It also represents a major win for liberals, and is likely to draw national attention and money on the race.\n\nSince the turn of the 21st Century, incumbent mayors of Minneapolis have been re-elected 60% of the time: in 2021, 2009, 2005. Conversely, they have lost 40% of the time: in 2017 (to the current mayor, Jacob Frey) and in 2001. \n\nAt the time of this question, there has been little public polling in the race. A poll from May 2025 [found](https://www.mplsforthemany.com/polling) Mayor Frey with -21% net favorability, which is 20 points worse than in September 2021, when Frey won the final round by 12.5 points against a progressive field that was divided into two main contenders, as compared with one (Fateh) in the 2025 election. \n\nMayor Frey is also appealing his loss of the Minneapolis Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party’s endorsement, according to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5412323-minneapolis-mayor-frey-appeal-endorsement/). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Omar Fateh is elected mayor of Minneapolis in the [2025 mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Minneapolis_mayoral_election). ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38922, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757553050.805122, "end_time": 1757612894.506, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757553050.805122, "end_time": 1757612894.506, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.377841116703139 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.502765947954929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Washington Post (July 24, 2025): [Is a Mamdani repeat coming to the Midwest? A democratic socialist is getting a boost in Minnesota.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/is-a-mamdani-repeat-coming-to-the-midwest-a-democratic-socialist-is-getting-a-boost-in-minnesota/ar-AA1JcfEP)\n\n> The Democratic Party in Minneapolis over the weekend endorsed a democratic socialist over the two-term incumbent in the city’s mayoral race, the latest indicator of increased momentum for the progressive left in local races across the country.\n\n> Delegates of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota’s most populous city on Saturday threw their support behind state Sen. Omar Fateh, who defeated Mayor Jacob Frey, at the party’s convention. The endorsement comes less than a month after Zohran Mamdani, also a democratic socialist and state lawmaker, won the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York.\n\n> The mayoral race is a ranked-choice election, like in New York, and the general election will take place in November when all candidates will compete on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. A Democrat is expected to win the race, as Minneapolis is a heavily Democratic city that has been led by Democratic mayors for more than 47 years.\n\n> While several candidates are running, the DFL endorsement effectively pits a democratic socialist against a relatively more moderate Frey. The mayoral race is far from over, according to political observers — but the endorsement does boost Fateh’s profile. It also represents a major win for liberals, and is likely to draw national attention and money on the race.\n\nSince the turn of the 21st Century, incumbent mayors of Minneapolis have been re-elected 60% of the time: in 2021, 2009, 2005. Conversely, they have lost 40% of the time: in 2017 (to the current mayor, Jacob Frey) and in 2001. \n\nAt the time of this question, there has been little public polling in the race. A poll from May 2025 [found](https://www.mplsforthemany.com/polling) Mayor Frey with -21% net favorability, which is 20 points worse than in September 2021, when Frey won the final round by 12.5 points against a progressive field that was divided into two main contenders, as compared with one (Fateh) in the 2025 election. \n\nMayor Frey is also appealing his loss of the Minneapolis Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party’s endorsement, according to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5412323-minneapolis-mayor-frey-appeal-endorsement/). " }, { "id": 38921, "title": "Will the EU suspend visa liberalisation for Georgia before March 2026?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-eu-suspend-visa-liberalisation-for-georgia-before-march-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-24T12:42:49.863093Z", "published_at": "2025-07-24T14:46:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.654601Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-24T14:47:04.160690Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-25T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38270, "title": "Will the EU suspend visa liberalisation for Georgia before March 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-24T12:42:49.863553Z", "open_time": "2025-07-25T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-26T14:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-26T14:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Visa-free travel for residents of Georgia visiting the European Union [began](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/node/23697_en) in 2017. \n\nIn 2024, the euroskeptic Georgia Dream party won the [Georgian parliamentary elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Georgian_parliamentary_election) with 54% of the votes. Both the opposition and international observers [claimed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%932025_Georgian_protests) that the result was not legitimate due to election fraud. In February 2025, the European Parliament passed a resolution stating that it does not recognise the results of either the parliamentary or the presidential elections as legitimate, a few months after the government announced that it would halt the EU accession process until 2029.\n\nThe EU has, at various points, decried the democratic backsliding happening in the country. In July 2025, the European Commission [sent a letter](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/07/16/georgias-visa-free-regime-with-eu-at-risk-over-backsliding-concerns) to Tbilisi, [threatening](https://www.rferl.org/a/eu-warns-georgia-visa-free-suspension-august-deadline/33478483.html) the suspension of the Georgia visa liberalisation programme, unless the country complied with eight visa-free regime benchmarks set in a December 2024 report, before September 2025.\n\nThese include repealing the \"transparency of foreign influence\" law, which requires foreign-funded NGOs and media to register as serving a foreign power, and the legislative package on \"family values and protection of minors\", which banned LGBTQ+ expression in media, education, and public life.\n\nThe Georgian parliament is in recess for the whole of August. Moreoveer, the government [responded](https://eurasianet.org/georgian-dream-pushes-back-on-eus-visa-free-travel-ultimatum) to EU's ultimatum by tying it to the Russo-Ukrainian war:\n\n> If the question arises of either peace and stability or visa-free, of course we will prioritize peace and stability\n\nSome EU ministers fear that such measures may target the Georgian population without affecting the country's leadership.\n\nIn January 2025, the EU [suspended](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/01/27/georgia-council-suspends-visa-free-travel-for-diplomats-and-officials/) visa-free travel for Georgian diplomats and certain government officials. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2026, the EU activates the visa suspension mechanism of Article 8 of the [revised Visa Regulation](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A02018R1806-20230515) for Georgia, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38921, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757233008.976, "end_time": 1757696722.86, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757233008.976, "end_time": 1757696722.86, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.3659962265105334 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3081700427348615, 1.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Visa-free travel for residents of Georgia visiting the European Union [began](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/node/23697_en) in 2017. \n\nIn 2024, the euroskeptic Georgia Dream party won the [Georgian parliamentary elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Georgian_parliamentary_election) with 54% of the votes. Both the opposition and international observers [claimed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024%E2%80%932025_Georgian_protests) that the result was not legitimate due to election fraud. In February 2025, the European Parliament passed a resolution stating that it does not recognise the results of either the parliamentary or the presidential elections as legitimate, a few months after the government announced that it would halt the EU accession process until 2029.\n\nThe EU has, at various points, decried the democratic backsliding happening in the country. In July 2025, the European Commission [sent a letter](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/07/16/georgias-visa-free-regime-with-eu-at-risk-over-backsliding-concerns) to Tbilisi, [threatening](https://www.rferl.org/a/eu-warns-georgia-visa-free-suspension-august-deadline/33478483.html) the suspension of the Georgia visa liberalisation programme, unless the country complied with eight visa-free regime benchmarks set in a December 2024 report, before September 2025.\n\nThese include repealing the \"transparency of foreign influence\" law, which requires foreign-funded NGOs and media to register as serving a foreign power, and the legislative package on \"family values and protection of minors\", which banned LGBTQ+ expression in media, education, and public life.\n\nThe Georgian parliament is in recess for the whole of August. Moreoveer, the government [responded](https://eurasianet.org/georgian-dream-pushes-back-on-eus-visa-free-travel-ultimatum) to EU's ultimatum by tying it to the Russo-Ukrainian war:\n\n> If the question arises of either peace and stability or visa-free, of course we will prioritize peace and stability\n\nSome EU ministers fear that such measures may target the Georgian population without affecting the country's leadership.\n\nIn January 2025, the EU [suspended](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/01/27/georgia-council-suspends-visa-free-travel-for-diplomats-and-officials/) visa-free travel for Georgian diplomats and certain government officials. " }, { "id": 38918, "title": "Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?", "short_title": "Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?", "url_title": "Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?", "slug": "will-us-imports-from-brazil-in-november-2025-exceed-those-of-november-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-23T23:16:20.026157Z", "published_at": "2025-07-24T10:52:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T14:42:50.171427Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-24T11:00:38.353235Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-24T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38268, "title": "Will US imports from Brazil in November 2025 exceed those of November 2024?", "created_at": "2025-07-23T23:16:20.026887Z", "open_time": "2025-07-24T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-24T20:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-24T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In mid July 2025, [according to CNN:](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/17/americas/trump-not-emperor-world-lula-intl)\n\n> Trump threatened Brazil with crippling tariffs of 50% starting August 1, according to a letter posted to his social media platform, Truth Social.\n\n> In the letter, Trump linked the astronomical tariff threat to what he described as a “witch hunt” trial against Brazil’s right-wing former president, Jair Bolsonaro.\n\n> Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally, is facing trial in Brazil for allegedly attempting to overthrow Lula following his presidential win in 2022. He could face more than four decades behind bars if found guilty of masterminding the coup.\n\n> Speaking exclusively to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Thursday, da Silva, who is widely known as Lula, said that Trump’s threats had broken away from “protocol” and argued that his predecessor’s fate cannot be part of trade negotiations.\n\nTop products the US imports from Brazil [are](https://www.usimportdata.com/blogs/us-imports-exports-trade-relations-with-brazil) coffee, oil, and sugar. Brazil provides about 37% of America's domestic sugar consumption needs, so a potential trade war could be coming at a time when The Coca-Cola Company [just announced](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-coke-cane-sugar) it was switching from high fructose corn syrup to cane sugar in its sodas. \n\nIn the past couple of years, the US's trade with Brazil has been as follows:\n\n| Year | Month | Exports (US\\$ m) | Imports (US\\$ m) | Balance\\* |\n| ---- | -------------- | ---------------: | ---------------: | ----------: |\n| 2023 | January | 3,592.3 | 3,100.6 | 491.7 |\n| 2023 | February | 3,586.1 | 2,564.0 | 1,022.0 |\n| 2023 | March | 4,119.6 | 3,170.1 | 949.5 |\n| 2023 | April | 3,464.2 | 2,649.7 | 814.5 |\n| 2023 | May | 4,051.7 | 3,066.0 | 985.6 |\n| 2023 | June | 3,940.4 | 3,555.7 | 384.7 |\n| 2023 | July | 3,427.9 | 3,320.5 | 107.4 |\n| 2023 | August | 3,755.9 | 3,166.2 | 589.7 |\n| 2023 | September | 3,662.7 | 3,944.0 | −281.3 |\n| 2023 | October | 3,580.8 | 3,127.2 | 453.6 |\n| 2023 | November | 3,623.6 | 3,568.3 | 55.3 |\n| 2023 | December | 3,734.2 | 3,828.1 | −94.0 |\n| 2023 | **TOTAL 2023** | **44,539.2** | **39,060.5** | **5,478.7** |\n| 2024 | January | 3,514.3 | 3,756.2 | −242.0 |\n| 2024 | February | 3,761.7 | 3,152.8 | 608.9 |\n| 2024 | March | 3,928.1 | 3,181.9 | 746.2 |\n| 2024 | April | 3,812.3 | 3,247.2 | 565.1 |\n| 2024 | May | 4,020.4 | 3,702.4 | 318.0 |\n| 2024 | June | 4,264.4 | 3,383.5 | 880.9 |\n| 2024 | July | 4,175.8 | 3,537.8 | 638.0 |\n| 2024 | August | 4,764.0 | 3,940.8 | 823.2 |\n| 2024 | September | 4,472.5 | 3,327.1 | 1,145.3 |\n| 2024 | October | 3,937.9 | 3,329.3 | 608.6 |\n| 2024 | November | 4,167.8 | 3,978.8 | 189.0 |\n| 2024 | December | 4,317.0 | 3,810.8 | 506.2 |\n| 2024 | **TOTAL 2024** | **49,136.1** | **42,348.4** | **6,787.7** |\n| 2025 | January | 3,855.7 | 3,770.7 | 85.0 |\n| 2025 | February | 4,073.1 | 3,344.5 | 728.6 |\n| 2025 | March | 4,654.1 | 3,898.1 | 756.0 |\n| 2025 | April | 4,254.6 | 3,184.2 | 1,070.5 |\n| 2025 | May | 4,811.3 | 4,224.1 | 587.1 |\n| | | | | |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the dollar amount of imports into the United States from Brazil for November 2025 exceeds the amount for November 2024, according to data presented by the US Census Bureau at its [Trade in Goods with Brazil](https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c3510.html) tracker. ", "fine_print": "Question resolves based on the amount shown when first accessed by Metaculus. Later updates will not cause the question to re-resolve.", "post_id": 38918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757552557.309, "end_time": 1757612863.84, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757552557.309, "end_time": 1757612863.84, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.346774879613345 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9696617405915442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.3148965317832342, 1.0463655508246972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8594995794833368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In mid July 2025, [according to CNN:](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/07/17/americas/trump-not-emperor-world-lula-intl)\n\n> Trump threatened Brazil with crippling tariffs of 50% starting August 1, according to a letter posted to his social media platform, Truth Social.\n\n> In the letter, Trump linked the astronomical tariff threat to what he described as a “witch hunt” trial against Brazil’s right-wing former president, Jair Bolsonaro.\n\n> Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally, is facing trial in Brazil for allegedly attempting to overthrow Lula following his presidential win in 2022. He could face more than four decades behind bars if found guilty of masterminding the coup.\n\n> Speaking exclusively to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Thursday, da Silva, who is widely known as Lula, said that Trump’s threats had broken away from “protocol” and argued that his predecessor’s fate cannot be part of trade negotiations.\n\nTop products the US imports from Brazil [are](https://www.usimportdata.com/blogs/us-imports-exports-trade-relations-with-brazil) coffee, oil, and sugar. Brazil provides about 37% of America's domestic sugar consumption needs, so a potential trade war could be coming at a time when The Coca-Cola Company [just announced](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-coke-cane-sugar) it was switching from high fructose corn syrup to cane sugar in its sodas. \n\nIn the past couple of years, the US's trade with Brazil has been as follows:\n\n| Year | Month | Exports (US\\$ m) | Imports (US\\$ m) | Balance\\* |\n| ---- | -------------- | ---------------: | ---------------: | ----------: |\n| 2023 | January | 3,592.3 | 3,100.6 | 491.7 |\n| 2023 | February | 3,586.1 | 2,564.0 | 1,022.0 |\n| 2023 | March | 4,119.6 | 3,170.1 | 949.5 |\n| 2023 | April | 3,464.2 | 2,649.7 | 814.5 |\n| 2023 | May | 4,051.7 | 3,066.0 | 985.6 |\n| 2023 | June | 3,940.4 | 3,555.7 | 384.7 |\n| 2023 | July | 3,427.9 | 3,320.5 | 107.4 |\n| 2023 | August | 3,755.9 | 3,166.2 | 589.7 |\n| 2023 | September | 3,662.7 | 3,944.0 | −281.3 |\n| 2023 | October | 3,580.8 | 3,127.2 | 453.6 |\n| 2023 | November | 3,623.6 | 3,568.3 | 55.3 |\n| 2023 | December | 3,734.2 | 3,828.1 | −94.0 |\n| 2023 | **TOTAL 2023** | **44,539.2** | **39,060.5** | **5,478.7** |\n| 2024 | January | 3,514.3 | 3,756.2 | −242.0 |\n| 2024 | February | 3,761.7 | 3,152.8 | 608.9 |\n| 2024 | March | 3,928.1 | 3,181.9 | 746.2 |\n| 2024 | April | 3,812.3 | 3,247.2 | 565.1 |\n| 2024 | May | 4,020.4 | 3,702.4 | 318.0 |\n| 2024 | June | 4,264.4 | 3,383.5 | 880.9 |\n| 2024 | July | 4,175.8 | 3,537.8 | 638.0 |\n| 2024 | August | 4,764.0 | 3,940.8 | 823.2 |\n| 2024 | September | 4,472.5 | 3,327.1 | 1,145.3 |\n| 2024 | October | 3,937.9 | 3,329.3 | 608.6 |\n| 2024 | November | 4,167.8 | 3,978.8 | 189.0 |\n| 2024 | December | 4,317.0 | 3,810.8 | 506.2 |\n| 2024 | **TOTAL 2024** | **49,136.1** | **42,348.4** | **6,787.7** |\n| 2025 | January | 3,855.7 | 3,770.7 | 85.0 |\n| 2025 | February | 4,073.1 | 3,344.5 | 728.6 |\n| 2025 | March | 4,654.1 | 3,898.1 | 756.0 |\n| 2025 | April | 4,254.6 | 3,184.2 | 1,070.5 |\n| 2025 | May | 4,811.3 | 4,224.1 | 587.1 |\n| | | | | |" }, { "id": 38917, "title": "Will Barack Obama be arrested before July 2026?", "short_title": "Will Barack Obama be arrested before July 2026?", "url_title": "Will Barack Obama be arrested before July 2026?", "slug": "will-barack-obama-be-arrested-before-july-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-23T18:31:39.307405Z", "published_at": "2025-07-23T22:07:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.914574Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-23T22:07:56.123412Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-23T22:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38265, "title": "Will Barack Obama be arrested before July 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-23T18:31:39.307854Z", "open_time": "2025-07-23T22:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-24T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-24T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 20, 2025, President Donald Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114887992924632896) on Truth Social an AI-generated video showing Barack Obama being arrested. Two days later, Trump [accused](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/22/politics/trump-obama-treason-accusation-analysis) Obama of treason, a crime punishable in the United States by death, saying from the Oval Office:\n\n> Barack Hussein Obama is the ringleader. Hillary Clinton was right there with them, and so was sleepy Joe Biden. And so were the rest of them. Comey, Clapper, the whole group, and they tried to rig an election and they got caught. And then they did rig the election in 2020.\n\nAccording to [the USAToday](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/22/trump-arrest-obama-video-epstein-treason-tulsi-gabbard/85320358007/): \n\n> Trump's comments follow Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's claim she has evidence of a \"treasonous conspiracy\" related to the intelligence about Russian interference in the 2016 election.\n\n> The focus on Obama comes as the Trump administration continues to receive backlash from some Republicans over the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein's criminal files. Putting attention on the 2016 election and investigations into Russia's interference could be part of a broader effort to distract from the Epstein fallout, according to [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/21/trump-epstein-distractions/) and [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-forever-grudge-obama-hillary-clinton).\n\n> \"Out of respect for the office of the presidency, our office does not normally dignify the constant nonsense and misinformation flowing out of this White House with a response,\" Patrick Rodenbush, a spokesperson for Obama, said in an emailed statement. \"But these claims are outrageous enough to merit one. These bizarre allegations are ridiculous and a weak attempt at distraction.\"\n\nHistorically, President Ulysses S. Grant was [reportedly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrests_of_Ulysses_S._Grant#Alleged_1872_arrest) arrested in 1872 for speeding on a horse, and Trump himself [was released](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trump-formally-arrested-on-election-racketeering-conspiracy-charges-4327600) from detention on a \\$200,000 bond in the state of Georgia after having his mugshot taken. \n\nSee Also:\n\n* Office of the Director of National Intelligence: [New Evidence of Obama Administration Conspiracy to Subvert President Trump’s 2016 Victory and Presidency](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2025/4086-pr-15-25)\n* Time Magazine: [Obama Hits Back at Trump’s Treason Accusation: ‘Weak Attempt at Distraction’](https://time.com/7304820/trump-treason-obama-response-distraction-epstein-guilty-president-prosecution/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if former US President Barack Obama is arrested before July 1, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "In order to streamline this question's resolution, please note that an arrest anywhere in the world, for any reason, will resolve this question as **Yes**. For purposes of this question, we define \"arrest\" using the definition [posted at Nolo](https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/justifies-arrest-probable-cause.html): \n\n> An arrest requires taking someone into custody, against that person's will, in order to prosecute or interrogate. It involves a physical application of force, or submission to an officer's show of force. In sum, the arrestee must not be free to leave. Whether the act by the police is termed an arrest under state law is not relevant. When deciding whether someone has been arrested, courts apply the 'reasonable man' standard. This means asking whether a reasonable person, in the shoes of the defendant, would have concluded that he or she was not free to leave.", "post_id": 38917, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757413916.738, "end_time": 1757592044.842, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757413916.738, "end_time": 1757592044.842, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.07532818583073982 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.691799576647511, 2.0141636191763137, 0.04335848771335259, 0.2062510040088083, 0.14006392172911664, 1.2168121871892492, 0.016764573440571914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07555473386203065, 0.030314528419522604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7228487183092426 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 20, 2025, President Donald Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114887992924632896) on Truth Social an AI-generated video showing Barack Obama being arrested. Two days later, Trump [accused](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/22/politics/trump-obama-treason-accusation-analysis) Obama of treason, a crime punishable in the United States by death, saying from the Oval Office:\n\n> Barack Hussein Obama is the ringleader. Hillary Clinton was right there with them, and so was sleepy Joe Biden. And so were the rest of them. Comey, Clapper, the whole group, and they tried to rig an election and they got caught. And then they did rig the election in 2020.\n\nAccording to [the USAToday](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/22/trump-arrest-obama-video-epstein-treason-tulsi-gabbard/85320358007/): \n\n> Trump's comments follow Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's claim she has evidence of a \"treasonous conspiracy\" related to the intelligence about Russian interference in the 2016 election.\n\n> The focus on Obama comes as the Trump administration continues to receive backlash from some Republicans over the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein's criminal files. Putting attention on the 2016 election and investigations into Russia's interference could be part of a broader effort to distract from the Epstein fallout, according to [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/21/trump-epstein-distractions/) and [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-forever-grudge-obama-hillary-clinton).\n\n> \"Out of respect for the office of the presidency, our office does not normally dignify the constant nonsense and misinformation flowing out of this White House with a response,\" Patrick Rodenbush, a spokesperson for Obama, said in an emailed statement. \"But these claims are outrageous enough to merit one. These bizarre allegations are ridiculous and a weak attempt at distraction.\"\n\nHistorically, President Ulysses S. Grant was [reportedly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrests_of_Ulysses_S._Grant#Alleged_1872_arrest) arrested in 1872 for speeding on a horse, and Trump himself [was released](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/donald-trump-formally-arrested-on-election-racketeering-conspiracy-charges-4327600) from detention on a \\$200,000 bond in the state of Georgia after having his mugshot taken. \n\nSee Also:\n\n* Office of the Director of National Intelligence: [New Evidence of Obama Administration Conspiracy to Subvert President Trump’s 2016 Victory and Presidency](https://www.dni.gov/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/press-releases-2025/4086-pr-15-25)\n* Time Magazine: [Obama Hits Back at Trump’s Treason Accusation: ‘Weak Attempt at Distraction’](https://time.com/7304820/trump-treason-obama-response-distraction-epstein-guilty-president-prosecution/)" }, { "id": 38916, "title": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Maxwell testify on the Epstein Files or Trumpin Congress before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Maxwell testify on the Epstein Files or Trumpin Congress before 2026?", "slug": "will-maxwell-testify-on-the-epstein-files-or-trumpin-congress-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-23T16:05:03.629097Z", "published_at": "2025-07-24T10:50:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:13:31.638570Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-24T10:51:27.311370Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-24T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38264, "title": "Will Ghislaine Maxwell give oral testimony on the Epstein Files or Epstein's relationship with Trump in a hearing at the US Congress before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-23T16:05:03.629618Z", "open_time": "2025-07-24T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-24T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [NY Post](https://nypost.com/2025/07/22/us-news/house-oversight-committee-to-subpoena-ghislaine-maxwell-for-testimony/) on July 22, 2025: \n\n> The powerful GOP-led House Oversight Committee will “seek to subpoena” convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell for testimony about the Jeffrey Epstein case “as expeditiously as possible,” a spokesperson confirmed Tuesday.\n\n> Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) had requested Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) summon the imprisoned British socialite for testimony. Comer instead asked Burchett to introduce a formal motion, which the panel approved by voice vote.\n\n> “Since Ms. Maxwell is in federal prison, the Committee will work with the Department of Justice and Bureau of Prisons to identify a date when Committee can depose her,” a committee rep said.\n\nMaxwell is [currently serving](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/22/ghislaine-maxwell-doj-questions-00468570) a 20-year prison term for child sex trafficking in connection with her long-time associate Jeffrey Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 by alleged suicide, under [suspicious circumstances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jeffrey_Epstein#Death). Epstein [has been speculated](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/jeffrey-epstein-conspiracies-intelligence-agent/) by influencers such as Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly to have been running a widespread blackmail operation as an asset for an intelligence service, such as Israel's Mossad. \n\nPresident Donald Trump [has described](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/19/nx-s1-5473430/trump-calls-release-jeffrey-epstein-grand-jury-testimony) the Epstein Files as a \"SCAM\" and a \"hoax.\" According to the New York Times, Trump and Epstein [had](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/19/us/politics/inside-trump-epstein-friendship.html) a long friendship spanning 15 years.\n\nAlan Dershowitz, Harvard Law professor emeritus and former attorney for Epstein [has said](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5411457-epstein-files-dershowitz-ghislaine-maxwell-testimony-trump-wall-street-journal-doj/) about Maxwell:\n\n> She knows everything. She is the Rosetta Stone. She knows everything. She arranged every single trip with everybody. She knows everything.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ghislaine Maxwell has testified under oath at a hearing, in person or remotely, in either the US House of Representatives or US Senate regarding either what is popularly known as the Epstein Files (defined in the Fine Print) or Donald Trump’s association with Epstein.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** if this does not occur before that date. It may also resolve as **No** in the event of Maxwell being permanently unable to testify, such as her death.", "fine_print": "* The Epstein Files [is defined as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein_client_list) any of the evidence of criminal cases on the part of Jeffrey Epstein or any of his clients or associates, including but not limited to his contacts list or his flight logs.\n* Any questioning regarding Donald Trump’s association with Epstein, including Maxwell denying or failing to recall any such association will count.\n* In order to count, a hearing must include oral questioning by House members or Senators. Any hearing qualifies, including public, closed, or even secret hearings, as long as credible sources report before January 1, 2026 that Maxwell testified under oath regarding the Epstein Files or Trump's association with Epstein.\n* Depositions do not count. Maxwell must appear at a hearing for this question to resolve as Yes.\n* Maxwell invoking her Fifth Amendment right to avoid self-incrimination, even if invoked on every question, will not affect resolution. 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Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) had requested Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) summon the imprisoned British socialite for testimony. Comer instead asked Burchett to introduce a formal motion, which the panel approved by voice vote.\n\n> “Since Ms. Maxwell is in federal prison, the Committee will work with the Department of Justice and Bureau of Prisons to identify a date when Committee can depose her,” a committee rep said.\n\nMaxwell is [currently serving](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/07/22/ghislaine-maxwell-doj-questions-00468570) a 20-year prison term for child sex trafficking in connection with her long-time associate Jeffrey Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 by alleged suicide, under [suspicious circumstances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jeffrey_Epstein#Death). Epstein [has been speculated](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/jeffrey-epstein-conspiracies-intelligence-agent/) by influencers such as Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly to have been running a widespread blackmail operation as an asset for an intelligence service, such as Israel's Mossad. \n\nPresident Donald Trump [has described](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/19/nx-s1-5473430/trump-calls-release-jeffrey-epstein-grand-jury-testimony) the Epstein Files as a \"SCAM\" and a \"hoax.\" According to the New York Times, Trump and Epstein [had](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/19/us/politics/inside-trump-epstein-friendship.html) a long friendship spanning 15 years.\n\nAlan Dershowitz, Harvard Law professor emeritus and former attorney for Epstein [has said](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5411457-epstein-files-dershowitz-ghislaine-maxwell-testimony-trump-wall-street-journal-doj/) about Maxwell:\n\n> She knows everything. She is the Rosetta Stone. She knows everything. She arranged every single trip with everybody. She knows everything." }, { "id": 38913, "title": "Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ishiba stop being PM before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ishiba stop being PM before Sep 2025?", "slug": "will-ishiba-stop-being-pm-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-23T08:08:39.883955Z", "published_at": "2025-08-01T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.010517Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-01T17:55:15.922805Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T14:55:00Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38247, "title": "Will Shigeru Ishiba cease to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-23T08:08:39.884650Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-06T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T14:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T14:55:47.305143Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) became Prime Minister of Japan in [October 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)_presidential_election) after previous Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, following months of party scandals and falling approval ratings, announced he would not seek re-election as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).\n\nShortly after taking office, Ishiba called a [snap general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) in which the ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2009. Following this, he has faced declining [poll numbers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Cabinet_approval/disapproval_ratings), [scandals](https://apnews.com/article/japan-ishiba-gift-scandal-bcee4e3c3ec0bcfbe537721bdd145aa8), and internal party challenges.\n\nThe [House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) held on July 20, 2025, was seen as a significant test for Ishiba, and although it avoided the worst predictions, the ruling coalition lost its majority, and the LDP received less than a quarter of the vote.\n\nFollowing the House of Councillors election, Ishiba faced calls to resign, and media began to [report](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250723/p2a/00m/0na/002000c) that he planned to do so in August 2025. However, Ishiba [denied](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xxe-SDNtxp4) these reports, calling them \"[completely unfounded](https://www.reuters.com/world/japans-pm-ishiba-denies-talk-he-will-quit-following-election-drubbing-2025-07-22/)\" and stating that he would focus on tariff negotiations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Shigeru Ishiba ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan before September 1, 2025 for any reason.", "fine_print": "If Ishiba officially announces that he will resign, this question will resolve as **Yes**, even if the effective date is after August 2025 or depends on a specific event taking place, such as a leadership race.", "post_id": 38913, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756674944.842834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756674944.842834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.009113774939706923 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.057933159934286, 4.5896970236788315, 1.3248843883700152, 0.022614253091566634, 0.013492534825694926, 0.07250522803542965, 0.08065511484958626, 0.016699727217022405, 0.005819522702150025, 0.0, 0.006636231172708202, 0.0183232893108838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005078988548449663, 0.004280041816184154, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004409064241487278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038045040913139735, 0.0, 0.001291273368885473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044145643229832644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003339641220092398 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 79.70690617877098, "peer_score": 33.22392847641595, "coverage": 0.9999549625152441, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999549625152441, "spot_peer_score": 40.51234548810212, "spot_baseline_score": 23.878685958711674, "baseline_archived_score": 79.70690617877098, "peer_archived_score": 33.22392847641595, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.51234548810212, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 23.878685958711674 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 549, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) became Prime Minister of Japan in [October 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)_presidential_election) after previous Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, following months of party scandals and falling approval ratings, announced he would not seek re-election as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).\n\nShortly after taking office, Ishiba called a [snap general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) in which the ruling coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2009. Following this, he has faced declining [poll numbers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Cabinet_approval/disapproval_ratings), [scandals](https://apnews.com/article/japan-ishiba-gift-scandal-bcee4e3c3ec0bcfbe537721bdd145aa8), and internal party challenges.\n\nThe [House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) held on July 20, 2025, was seen as a significant test for Ishiba, and although it avoided the worst predictions, the ruling coalition lost its majority, and the LDP received less than a quarter of the vote.\n\nFollowing the House of Councillors election, Ishiba faced calls to resign, and media began to [report](https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20250723/p2a/00m/0na/002000c) that he planned to do so in August 2025. However, Ishiba [denied](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xxe-SDNtxp4) these reports, calling them \"[completely unfounded](https://www.reuters.com/world/japans-pm-ishiba-denies-talk-he-will-quit-following-election-drubbing-2025-07-22/)\" and stating that he would focus on tariff negotiations." }, { "id": 38908, "title": "Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Will Trump complete his term of office?", "url_title": "Will Trump complete his term of office?", "slug": "will-trump-complete-his-term-of-office", "author_id": 276144, "author_username": "Entropy77", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-22T17:40:58.717030Z", "published_at": "2025-08-03T00:54:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:10:05.123684Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-03T00:55:35.973025Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-04T00:54:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38244, "title": "Will Donald J. Trump vacate the U.S. Presidency before noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-07-22T17:40:58.717478Z", "open_time": "2025-08-04T00:54:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-08T00:54:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-08T00:54:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-20T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, marking the beginning of a second, non-consecutive term. According to the 20th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, his term is scheduled to end at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on January 20, 2029.\n\nDuring his first term, Trump was impeached twice but not removed from office. Public discussion continues about the likelihood that legal, political, or health-related issues could affect his ability to complete his second term.\n\nThis question asks whether Trump will leave office and someone else will become President of the United States for any reason **prior to the scheduled end of Trump's term on January 20, 2029**.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald J. Trump ceases to hold the office of President of the United States **prior to noon Eastern Time on January 20, 2029**, through any means **that result in a permanent transfer of presidential power** to another individual.\n\nIf Trump retains the presidency through noon ET on January 20, 2029, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Temporary transfers of presidential authority under **Section 3 or 4 of the 25th Amendment** (e.g., during medical procedures or short-term incapacitation) **will not count** for resolution as \"Yes\" unless they become permanent.", "post_id": 38908, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757470193.934016, "end_time": 1762284601.965, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757470193.934016, "end_time": 1762284601.965, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.25100992225713314 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8072166689411338, 0.0, 0.026430157778456278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08869420276155053, 0.73440527249818, 0.4299318448315297, 0.0, 0.04203940166576829, 1.1421910901175585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015241095655114558, 0.0, 0.10286368260463565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6064892434860283, 0.0, 0.17652900265006702, 0.0, 2.190776844482019, 0.4881318146518435, 0.28705404421628866, 0.8482735375624566, 0.5308639099448593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8585512680100754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766688751576644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15484882828267954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34456062722226327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05548779491047209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03108680207201517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2237722397429922 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, marking the beginning of a second, non-consecutive term. According to the 20th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, his term is scheduled to end at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on January 20, 2029.\n\nDuring his first term, Trump was impeached twice but not removed from office. Public discussion continues about the likelihood that legal, political, or health-related issues could affect his ability to complete his second term.\n\nThis question asks whether Trump will leave office and someone else will become President of the United States for any reason **prior to the scheduled end of Trump's term on January 20, 2029**." }, { "id": 38898, "title": "Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?", "short_title": "Will Musk or Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?", "url_title": "Will Musk or Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?", "slug": "will-musk-or-trump-publically-disparage-each-other-before-september-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-18T17:01:53.476907Z", "published_at": "2025-07-21T12:29:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.179654Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-21T12:30:01.320908Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T14:02:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-21T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38221, "title": "Will Elon Musk or Donald Trump publically disparage each other before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-18T17:01:53.477363Z", "open_time": "2025-07-21T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-22T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-22T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T14:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T14:04:11.883791Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 5, 2025, Elon Musk [stated publicly](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930667528696828120) that Donald Trump had ties to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in what was a spectacular end to the relationship between the worlds richest man and the incumbent 47th US President.\n\nBoth Musk and Trump had previously enjoyed what seemed to be a close and highly publicised friendship. Musk had been given special government employee status by Trump and was the de facto head of the so-called Department for Government Efficiency (DOGE) — the Trump administration's government cost-cutting initiative. However, prior to June 5, the special government employee status of Musk expired, leaving his position within the Trump administration uncertain. At this time, Trump had also been pushing his so-called Big Beautiful Bill which contained many provisions which would increase the US government deficit and end electric vehicle tax breaks.\n\nMusk [apologised](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jun/11/elon-musk-trump-regret-posts) to Trump publicly, but both men have yet to reconcile.\n\n###### Table. List of notable events leading in the Elon Musk-Donald Trump feud\n\n| Date / Event | Event Summary | Link / Source |\n| ------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------: |\n| June 3. Elon Musk post on X. | \"I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore.

This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.

Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1929954109689606359) |\n| June 5. Donald Trump remarks at press conference. | “Elon and I had a great relationship. I don’t know if we will anymore,” | [Link](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-president-administration-news-06-05-25#cmbjkbhvx00053b6s86gyygp9) |\n| June 5. Elon Musk post on X. | \"Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930667528696828120) |\n| June 5. Donald Trump post on Truth Social. | Elon was “wearing thin,” I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY! | [Source](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1930696266993832006) |\n| June 6. Elon Musk now deleted post on X. | \"Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files, That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT\" | [Source](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/05/trump-elon-musk-fallout) |\n| June 11. Elon Musk post on X apologising. | \"I regret some of my posts about President [@realDonaldTrump](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump) last week. They went too far.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1932695486684950962) |\n| | | |", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that either Donald Trump has publicly criticised Elon Musk or Elon Musk has publicly criticised Donald Trump. Public criticism will generally not be taken to include jokes, backhanded compliments, snide remarks, or other non-serious insults or veiled insults. To count, a criticism must unambiguously convey dislike or dissatisfaction with the other person.", "fine_print": "* Metaculus will consult media characterizations of Trump's or Musk's comments to aid in determining if criticism has occurred. Metaculus will assess multiple sources of various political leanings to aid in limiting bias in assessing whether the question has resolved.\n* A criticism must be public to count, indirect reports, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n* If the outcome is disputed, a panel of three Admins will vote on how the question should resolve.\n* The criticism doesn't need to mention the other person by name, if it is clear that they are referenced in the statement. For example, Musk saying \"Everyone who works in the White House right now is incompetent.\" would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* Criticism must be of the other man's character, not mere disagreement with a policy, even if the policy itself is criticized. For example, Musk calling the One Big Beautiful Bill Act a \"disgusting abomination\" on June 3, 2025, would not count, since the criticism is not of Trump but of his policy.", "post_id": 38898, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755259033.279246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.142 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755259033.279246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.142 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24396453616344282 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.04163822466624065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1297911561650962, 0.0, 0.8615610800465918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035201554049220755, 0.0, 2.0287331295918793, 0.9157592757067999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.881252248598777, 0.4976419799216756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039933435337878, 0.3307535733100695, 3.4442750403670246, 0.5104037381549636, 0.8099105034576107, 0.6527822562352956, 0.4486325245057087, 1.240654267534816, 0.35673665699761764, 0.0, 0.6949230758947678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43523845061139377, 0.0, 1.2422686336094242, 0.0037288215013679916, 0.04811195816242564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0275524712565069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025898963863878792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08627334283842372, 0.0, 0.05190119490203952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023267187987808503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02752614763749901, 0.02134152870342287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005338748039204726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016134421732207857, 0.009419608219617398, 0.0, 0.005257436367961542, 0.0, 0.0018827190265937534, 0.0, 0.0007910310761167284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04350827787223317, 0.0, 0.006676994274053015, 0.0032840439631166654, 0.0025134178191185503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9297170691124111 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -17.32446707618895, "peer_score": 52.79805219590244, "coverage": 0.9984530631259272, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9984530631259272, "spot_peer_score": 38.951654424149986, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -17.32446707618895, "peer_archived_score": 52.79805219590244, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.951654424149986, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 563, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 5, 2025, Elon Musk [stated publicly](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930667528696828120) that Donald Trump had ties to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein in what was a spectacular end to the relationship between the worlds richest man and the incumbent 47th US President.\n\nBoth Musk and Trump had previously enjoyed what seemed to be a close and highly publicised friendship. Musk had been given special government employee status by Trump and was the de facto head of the so-called Department for Government Efficiency (DOGE) — the Trump administration's government cost-cutting initiative. However, prior to June 5, the special government employee status of Musk expired, leaving his position within the Trump administration uncertain. At this time, Trump had also been pushing his so-called Big Beautiful Bill which contained many provisions which would increase the US government deficit and end electric vehicle tax breaks.\n\nMusk [apologised](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jun/11/elon-musk-trump-regret-posts) to Trump publicly, but both men have yet to reconcile.\n\n###### Table. List of notable events leading in the Elon Musk-Donald Trump feud\n\n| Date / Event | Event Summary | Link / Source |\n| ------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | :-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------: |\n| June 3. Elon Musk post on X. | \"I’m sorry, but I just can’t stand it anymore.

This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination.

Shame on those who voted for it: you know you did wrong. You know it.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1929954109689606359) |\n| June 5. Donald Trump remarks at press conference. | “Elon and I had a great relationship. I don’t know if we will anymore,” | [Link](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-president-administration-news-06-05-25#cmbjkbhvx00053b6s86gyygp9) |\n| June 5. Elon Musk post on X. | \"Without me, Trump would have lost the election, Dems would control the House and the Republicans would be 51-49 in the Senate.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1930667528696828120) |\n| June 5. Donald Trump post on Truth Social. | Elon was “wearing thin,” I asked him to leave, I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY! | [Source](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1930696266993832006) |\n| June 6. Elon Musk now deleted post on X. | \"Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files, That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT\" | [Source](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/05/trump-elon-musk-fallout) |\n| June 11. Elon Musk post on X apologising. | \"I regret some of my posts about President [@realDonaldTrump](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump) last week. They went too far.\" | [Link](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1932695486684950962) |\n| | | |" }, { "id": 38896, "title": "Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?", "short_title": "Taiwan nuclear referendum passes?", "url_title": "Taiwan nuclear referendum passes?", "slug": "taiwan-nuclear-referendum-passes", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-18T14:48:56.979899Z", "published_at": "2025-07-25T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.418528Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-25T16:49:58.776354Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T11:07:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38219, "title": "Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?", "created_at": "2025-07-18T14:48:56.980342Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-24T11:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-24T11:08:00.279832Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-22T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-22T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Taiwan [used nuclear power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan) as part of its domestic mix of energy production beginning in the 1970s and ending in May 2025. Nuclear power peaked in the 1980s, when it made up [slightly over half](https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3413) of Taiwan's electricity generation. Since then nuclear power production has gradually waned in favor of coal and later natural gas.\n\nHowever after the 2011 [Fukushima nuclear accident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_nuclear_accident) in Japan, anti-nuclear voices in Taiwan grew louder. In 2016 Taiwanese voters elected the Democratic Progressive Party to government on a platform that included [phasing out nuclear power by 2025](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Taiwanese-vote-to-keep-nuclear-in-energy-mix). \n\nOnce elected, the DPP followed through on this promise by enshrining the phase-out into law. but in a [2018 referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Taiwanese_referendum) Taiwanese voters voted to repeal this law, with 54.83% of the electorate participating in the referendum and 59.49% of those voting in favor of the repeal. Nevertheless, the DPP-led government continued its policy of phasing out nuclear power, and as a result Taiwan's six nuclear power units (two in each of three power plants) were [gradually closed down](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/reactor-closure-marks-taiwans-nuclear-exit) between 2018 and 2025.\n\nIn early 2025, the Taiwan People's Party, with support of the Kuomintang, [put forward a referendum](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/04/19/2003835455) to reactivate the [Maanshan nuclear power plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maanshan_Nuclear_Power_Plant) provided that it passes safety inspections. The legislature approved the referendum, which is scheduled to be held on August 23, 2025. The [referendum question](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Taiwanese_referendum) will be\n\n> Do you agree that the Third Nuclear Power Plant should continue operating, provided that the competent authority confirms there are no safety concerns?\n\nNote that under [Taiwanese law](https://law.moj.gov.tw/ENG/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=D0020050) for a referendum to pass the total number of yes votes must constitute at least one-fourth the total number of eligible voters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the referendum scheduled for August 23, 2025 to reactivate the Maanshan/Third Nuclear Power Plant passes.", "fine_print": "If the nuclear power plant referendum is postponed to after September 1, 2025, or if the results are not available before September 1, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nThe primary source for resolution will be the [Central Election Commission](https://web.cec.gov.tw/english).", "post_id": 38896, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755859179.292201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755859179.292201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6588420573232173 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08532897360695803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6177039404822752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002255205898776533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017045521296473166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032942504413227035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004983840471032407, 0.0, 0.023560770382044207, 0.4219544127463164, 0.0, 0.12606003591503093, 0.48401409928095007, 0.7886916210366777, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5167354654575016, 0.0, 0.03867734993865754, 0.888825836472129, 0.0, 0.2042328848453002, 1.0, 0.2006545398315125, 0.0, 1.453720711394888, 3.3824609289976397, 0.6042992453618161, 0.026120776162701476, 0.32374300958340624, 0.0, 0.4581561860219403, 0.126914121100483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4271577012363902, 0.08858351978830711, 0.04657095710352773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8374418253394589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07222825528385914, 0.01814995217282128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3035607380831548 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -59.184089961312914, "peer_score": 29.458215499212386, "coverage": 0.9999135656382416, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999135656382416, "spot_peer_score": 6.521174230254017, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -59.184089961312914, "peer_archived_score": 29.458215499212386, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.521174230254017, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 461, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Taiwan [used nuclear power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan) as part of its domestic mix of energy production beginning in the 1970s and ending in May 2025. Nuclear power peaked in the 1980s, when it made up [slightly over half](https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3413) of Taiwan's electricity generation. Since then nuclear power production has gradually waned in favor of coal and later natural gas.\n\nHowever after the 2011 [Fukushima nuclear accident](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_nuclear_accident) in Japan, anti-nuclear voices in Taiwan grew louder. In 2016 Taiwanese voters elected the Democratic Progressive Party to government on a platform that included [phasing out nuclear power by 2025](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Taiwanese-vote-to-keep-nuclear-in-energy-mix). \n\nOnce elected, the DPP followed through on this promise by enshrining the phase-out into law. but in a [2018 referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Taiwanese_referendum) Taiwanese voters voted to repeal this law, with 54.83% of the electorate participating in the referendum and 59.49% of those voting in favor of the repeal. Nevertheless, the DPP-led government continued its policy of phasing out nuclear power, and as a result Taiwan's six nuclear power units (two in each of three power plants) were [gradually closed down](https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/reactor-closure-marks-taiwans-nuclear-exit) between 2018 and 2025.\n\nIn early 2025, the Taiwan People's Party, with support of the Kuomintang, [put forward a referendum](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2025/04/19/2003835455) to reactivate the [Maanshan nuclear power plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maanshan_Nuclear_Power_Plant) provided that it passes safety inspections. The legislature approved the referendum, which is scheduled to be held on August 23, 2025. The [referendum question](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Taiwanese_referendum) will be\n\n> Do you agree that the Third Nuclear Power Plant should continue operating, provided that the competent authority confirms there are no safety concerns?\n\nNote that under [Taiwanese law](https://law.moj.gov.tw/ENG/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?pcode=D0020050) for a referendum to pass the total number of yes votes must constitute at least one-fourth the total number of eligible voters." }, { "id": 38893, "title": "Will Kim Keon Hee be criminally charged before September 2025?", "short_title": "Kim Keon Hee charged before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Kim Keon Hee charged before Sep 2025?", "slug": "kim-keon-hee-charged-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-17T04:14:56.575122Z", "published_at": "2025-07-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.636044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"group_rank": null, "description": "[Kim Keon Hee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Keon_Hee), former First Lady of South Korea, has been the subject of multiple investigations over alleged financial misconduct, including stock price manipulation involving Deutsch Motors and Sambu Construction. Other allegations involve misuse of political influence and receiving luxury gifts.\n\nAfter the impeachment and [removal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Yoon_Suk_Yeol) of her husband, Yoon Suk Yeol, the National Assembly passed a bill establishing a [special counsel](https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1188239.html) to investigate Kim. The special counsel formally began its investigation in June 2025, imposing a [travel ban](https://en.asiatoday.co.kr/view.php?key=20250704000824385) on Kim Keon Hee, conducting searches of government offices and [raiding](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10532030) those implicated in the alleged luxury gifts.\n\n[Arrest warrants](https://www.mk.co.kr/en/society/11367864) have been sought for four executives at Sambu Construction over suspected stock price manipulation, while a detention warrant was issued for Kim’s longtime aide, who allegedly received significant sums from large corporations through a rental car company and subsequently left the country to avoid questioning.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kim Keon Hee is charged with a criminal offense by South Korean authorities before September 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38893, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756438280.971255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756438280.971255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.8709649001203646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.11198246353073231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05265403039884038, 0.0, 0.001790116379774893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026148795004889177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0042606242280195635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06773163967248513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015092985777688732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007851968116423552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006517222435612316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18795738563747055, 0.10083964581808723, 0.0056879060040344945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014460835021916812, 0.0, 0.0036512462649140286, 0.009543845697788052, 0.4903152932992509, 0.03810867269580147, 0.01511014823377393, 0.027908835249252868, 0.0, 0.1265952290903183, 0.45894486563999604, 0.016830734531265112, 0.008438384594982272, 0.0, 0.1952379986272593, 1.5997950860791126, 0.13633578835620466, 0.2401491334992293, 0.8835986322654197, 0.7147134567377993, 1.162028629319614, 0.010755654095857752, 1.9783848593739022, 0.06235169715667622, 0.20198795668274172, 0.8556563646112201, 0.70552391225079, 0.022937907506089057, 0.012081674919003055, 0.0, 0.3810919053759498, 0.0, 0.8414412190720929, 0.9444368072528766, 3.3580703692769083 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 2.1151700321756732, "peer_score": 29.229786527510967, "coverage": 0.9313003759936693, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998938328412923, "spot_peer_score": 1.8229330178289147, "spot_baseline_score": -64.38561897747248, "baseline_archived_score": 2.1151700321756732, "peer_archived_score": 29.229786527510967, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8229330178289147, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -64.38561897747248 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 726, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Kim Keon Hee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kim_Keon_Hee), former First Lady of South Korea, has been the subject of multiple investigations over alleged financial misconduct, including stock price manipulation involving Deutsch Motors and Sambu Construction. Other allegations involve misuse of political influence and receiving luxury gifts.\n\nAfter the impeachment and [removal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_of_Yoon_Suk_Yeol) of her husband, Yoon Suk Yeol, the National Assembly passed a bill establishing a [special counsel](https://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_national/1188239.html) to investigate Kim. The special counsel formally began its investigation in June 2025, imposing a [travel ban](https://en.asiatoday.co.kr/view.php?key=20250704000824385) on Kim Keon Hee, conducting searches of government offices and [raiding](https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10532030) those implicated in the alleged luxury gifts.\n\n[Arrest warrants](https://www.mk.co.kr/en/society/11367864) have been sought for four executives at Sambu Construction over suspected stock price manipulation, while a detention warrant was issued for Kim’s longtime aide, who allegedly received significant sums from large corporations through a rental car company and subsequently left the country to avoid questioning." }, { "id": 38892, "title": "Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?", "short_title": "MetOp-SG orbit before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "MetOp-SG orbit before Sep 2025?", "slug": "metop-sg-orbit-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-17T02:58:33.857344Z", "published_at": "2025-07-18T17:15:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.448306Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-18T17:15:48.883701Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-13T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-21T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38215, "title": "Will MetOp-SG-A1 reach orbit before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-17T02:58:33.857771Z", "open_time": "2025-07-21T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-13T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-13T16:59:01.266899Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-13T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[MetOp-SG](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MetOp-SG) (Meteorological Operational Satellite–Second Generation) is a program developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and EUMETSAT to provide continued meteorological and atmospheric observations for Europe. The program succeeds the first generation of MetOp satellites, extending and improving data collection for applications such as weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and environmental research.\n\nThe first satellite in the program, MetOp-SG-A1, is scheduled for launch in [August 2025](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Meteorological_missions/MetOp_Second_Generation/First_MetOp_Second_Generation_satellite_to_launch_in_August) from the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana using an Ariane 6 rocket. As of [June 2025](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/06/08/airbus-metop-sg-satellite-is-ready-for-use/), MetOp-SG-A1 had arrived at the launch facility and was undergoing pre-launch testing. The next satellite, MetOp-SG-B1, is planned for launch in 2026, with [additional launches](https://www.eumetsat.int/planned-launches) set to follow over the subsequent years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, MetOp-SG-A1 enters orbit around Earth.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, a satellite is considered to be in orbit if it maintains a trajectory that continuously circles Earth for at least one day.\n\nIf MetOp-SG-A1 is destroyed this question will immediately resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 38892, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755052454.043432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755052454.043432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8796428865132436 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02035427510390197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5376037185099556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018175126021569836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006409490637180558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01618032019129673, 0.02531939678828675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031191153071574097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.0026929702225732283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014357330374357432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011180132954712787, 0.0, 0.7722982218467274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004669981048994339, 0.04618511849820684, 0.10185908988886204, 0.006109129308433916, 0.047477561068025524, 0.08624868390658809, 0.2937072262777226, 0.4593896778152357, 0.31490076724293836, 0.6569251315574702, 0.7722969853915468, 0.8073462337084368, 3.4210895005108926, 1.2132816756563873, 1.4301914020955024, 0.17669137990545516, 0.13148107102613052, 0.677073393566452, 1.1198394597949586, 0.06655370815568037, 0.0, 1.9484345516073827 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 55.59134836041889, "peer_score": 11.422315758083679, "coverage": 0.7665907317105106, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998082020824759, "spot_peer_score": 21.46438378484213, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 55.59134836041889, "peer_archived_score": 11.422315758083679, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.46438378484213, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 390, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[MetOp-SG](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MetOp-SG) (Meteorological Operational Satellite–Second Generation) is a program developed by the European Space Agency (ESA) and EUMETSAT to provide continued meteorological and atmospheric observations for Europe. The program succeeds the first generation of MetOp satellites, extending and improving data collection for applications such as weather forecasting, climate monitoring, and environmental research.\n\nThe first satellite in the program, MetOp-SG-A1, is scheduled for launch in [August 2025](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Meteorological_missions/MetOp_Second_Generation/First_MetOp_Second_Generation_satellite_to_launch_in_August) from the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana using an Ariane 6 rocket. As of [June 2025](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/06/08/airbus-metop-sg-satellite-is-ready-for-use/), MetOp-SG-A1 had arrived at the launch facility and was undergoing pre-launch testing. The next satellite, MetOp-SG-B1, is planned for launch in 2026, with [additional launches](https://www.eumetsat.int/planned-launches) set to follow over the subsequent years." }, { "id": 38890, "title": "Will the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization have any new members before 2035?", "short_title": "Will the WTO Appellate Body have any new members before 2035?", "url_title": "Will the WTO Appellate Body have any new members before 2035?", "slug": "will-the-wto-appellate-body-have-any-new-members-before-2035", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-16T13:59:56.280737Z", "published_at": "2025-07-17T11:53:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T13:25:39.214503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-17T11:54:37.212406Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-18T11:53:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38205, "title": "Will the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization have any new members before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-07-16T13:59:56.281164Z", "open_time": "2025-07-18T11:53:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-22T11:53:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-22T11:53:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [WTO Appellate Body](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appellate_Body) was the final arbiter of international trade disputes, functioning as the \"supreme court\" of global trade from 1995-2019. When countries disagreed with initial WTO panel rulings, they could appeal to this 7-member body of trade law experts. The Appellate Body made WTO dispute resolution binding rather than merely advisory. Countries generally complied with its rulings, making it arguably [the most effective international court ever created](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/wto-judicial-appointments-bad-omen-trading-system).\n\nStarting under Obama and significantly extended under Trump, the U.S. systematically killed it by blocking new member appointments. American complaints included the AB exceeding its mandate by creating precedent-like interpretations, taking too long to issue rulings, and making decisions favoring other countries over U.S. interests. By December 2019, the AB had lost quorum when only 1 member remained. It's been non-functional since, despite Biden administration [claims about wanting to restore it](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/22/tai-targets-china-climate-in-call-to-reform-wto-00117491).\n\nIn 2020, the EU and 15 other WTO members signed the temporary [Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appellate_Body#Multiparty_Interim_Appeal_Arbitration) as a workaround, but this covers only participating countries and lacks the AB's universal authority.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2035, a member of the Appellate Body of the World Trade Organization officially takes office.\n\nIf this does not happen or if the Appellate Body is formally disbanded, this question will resolve as **No.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38890, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757337928.219318, "end_time": 1787175845.041, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757337928.219318, "end_time": 1787175845.041, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7444128696276813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [WTO Appellate Body](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appellate_Body) was the final arbiter of international trade disputes, functioning as the \"supreme court\" of global trade from 1995-2019. When countries disagreed with initial WTO panel rulings, they could appeal to this 7-member body of trade law experts. The Appellate Body made WTO dispute resolution binding rather than merely advisory. Countries generally complied with its rulings, making it arguably [the most effective international court ever created](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/wto-judicial-appointments-bad-omen-trading-system).\n\nStarting under Obama and significantly extended under Trump, the U.S. systematically killed it by blocking new member appointments. American complaints included the AB exceeding its mandate by creating precedent-like interpretations, taking too long to issue rulings, and making decisions favoring other countries over U.S. interests. By December 2019, the AB had lost quorum when only 1 member remained. It's been non-functional since, despite Biden administration [claims about wanting to restore it](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/22/tai-targets-china-climate-in-call-to-reform-wto-00117491).\n\nIn 2020, the EU and 15 other WTO members signed the temporary [Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration Arrangement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appellate_Body#Multiparty_Interim_Appeal_Arbitration) as a workaround, but this covers only participating countries and lacks the AB's universal authority." }, { "id": 38886, "title": "Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?", "short_title": "Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?", "url_title": "Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?", "slug": "will-the-next-ceo-of-xtwitter-last-until-2027", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-15T23:00:59.257208Z", "published_at": "2025-07-16T01:10:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T04:16:50.888570Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-16T01:11:03.863919Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-16T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T02:24:06.586739Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38201, "title": "Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?", "created_at": "2025-07-15T23:00:59.257629Z", "open_time": "2025-07-16T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-16T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-16T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "X/Twitter is a major social media platform that has undergone significant leadership and strategic changes since[ its acquisition by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in October 2022. After the purchase, Musk initially served as CEO but [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65574826) in May 2023 that Linda Yaccarino, formerly the chairman of global advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal, would take over as CEO in June 2023. X [has experienced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) ongoing executive turnover, high-profile resignations, and frequent shifts in business direction under Musk’s ownership, with Musk retaining significant operational control and public influence over key decisions.\n\nAccording to [industry insiders](https://www.ft.com/content/833c5b55-4a64-430d-9332-255f46883e71), Yaccarino was set up to fail:\n\n> She was tasked with bringing back advertising dollars to a platform whose politically polarising owner had told brands who did not spend with them to “go fuck themselves”.\n\n> Given Musk’s hands-on, round-the-clock approach to leading X, Yaccarino never had the kind of control that most CEOs enjoy.\n\nOn July 9, 2025 Yaccarino [resigned as CEO](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/linda-yaccarino-x-elon-musk.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the next CEO of X, after Linda Yaccarino's departure, continuously holds the position of CEO until January 1, 2027.", "fine_print": "* If no person becomes CEO of X before 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n* If the new CEO steps down before January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**, even if they later return to this position.\n* If X rebrands or changes ownership that will have no impact on this question.", "post_id": 38886, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757477800.546466, "end_time": 1759026005.922, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757477800.546466, "end_time": 1759026005.922, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.512920631308472 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0854274039684921, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.7858342852282592, 0.8999502783252032, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.755341909330932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.20703411592024262, 0.19523450305981643, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "X/Twitter is a major social media platform that has undergone significant leadership and strategic changes since[ its acquisition by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in October 2022. After the purchase, Musk initially served as CEO but [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65574826) in May 2023 that Linda Yaccarino, formerly the chairman of global advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal, would take over as CEO in June 2023. X [has experienced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) ongoing executive turnover, high-profile resignations, and frequent shifts in business direction under Musk’s ownership, with Musk retaining significant operational control and public influence over key decisions.\n\nAccording to [industry insiders](https://www.ft.com/content/833c5b55-4a64-430d-9332-255f46883e71), Yaccarino was set up to fail:\n\n> She was tasked with bringing back advertising dollars to a platform whose politically polarising owner had told brands who did not spend with them to “go fuck themselves”.\n\n> Given Musk’s hands-on, round-the-clock approach to leading X, Yaccarino never had the kind of control that most CEOs enjoy.\n\nOn July 9, 2025 Yaccarino [resigned as CEO](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/linda-yaccarino-x-elon-musk.html)." }, { "id": 38884, "title": "Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?", "short_title": "Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?", "url_title": "Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?", "slug": "will-resident-doctors-in-england-receive-a-further-pay-increase-before-2026", "author_id": 113983, "author_username": "alt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-15T10:27:26.790953Z", "published_at": "2025-07-17T13:53:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:13:48.859997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-17T13:53:53.143516Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-18T13:53:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38199, "title": "Will resident doctors in England receive a further pay increase before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-15T10:27:26.791358Z", "open_time": "2025-07-18T13:53:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-22T13:53:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-22T13:53:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Resident (previously junior) doctors in England, represented by the British Medical Association (BMA), [have announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp820586x9do) a five-day strike beginning 25 July 2025, amid a long-running dispute over real-terms pay cuts since 2008.\n\nHealth Secretary Wes Streeting, has so far resisted the BMA’s demand for full pay restoration. However, [past strikes in 2022-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932024_National_Health_Service_strikes) led to an improved offer after prolonged industrial action.\n\nRead also: [Why are resident doctors striking and what are they paid?](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qyl4ljjko)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the UK Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) enacts a pay offer for resident doctors in England, which both:\n\n* Exceeds the 5.4% average uplift already confirmed for the 2025–26 financial year, AND\n* Is accepted by the BMA or enacted regardless, through unilateral government decision or pay review body recommendation.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve as **Yes** only if the offer is enacted. If it is announced, but not enacted before 2026 (e.g., because it is under negotiation or because of bureaucratic delays), this question will resolve as **No**.\n* Only base pay uplifts for resident doctors in England count. \n* Non-pay elements (e.g. working conditions, pensions, bonuses) will be ignored.\n* Partial or targeted uplifts (e.g., to certain training grades only) will count if they represent a higher average increase than the scheduled 5.4%.", "post_id": 38884, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757470418.476816, "end_time": 1759745006.53, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757470418.476816, "end_time": 1759745006.53, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.1685725452815014 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Resident (previously junior) doctors in England, represented by the British Medical Association (BMA), [have announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp820586x9do) a five-day strike beginning 25 July 2025, amid a long-running dispute over real-terms pay cuts since 2008.\n\nHealth Secretary Wes Streeting, has so far resisted the BMA’s demand for full pay restoration. However, [past strikes in 2022-2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932024_National_Health_Service_strikes) led to an improved offer after prolonged industrial action.\n\nRead also: [Why are resident doctors striking and what are they paid?](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qyl4ljjko)" }, { "id": 38877, "title": "Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?", "short_title": "DPA re-authorization before Oct '25?", "url_title": "DPA re-authorization before Oct '25?", "slug": "dpa-re-authorization-before-oct-25", "author_id": 131377, "author_username": "nmzd", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-13T14:48:33.722593Z", "published_at": "2025-07-17T12:14:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:35:29.165289Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-17T12:14:43.305073Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-18T12:14:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38194, "title": "Will the Defense Production Act be re-authorized before October 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-13T14:48:33.723033Z", "open_time": "2025-07-18T12:14:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-22T12:14:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-22T12:14:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-02T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Defense Production Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) of 1950 is a U.S. federal law that gives the executive wide-ranging powers to intervene in markets and force private organisations to prioritize federal contracts that relate to the \"national defense\" of the United States. \n\nIt has been [reauthorized](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12484/IN12484.2.pdf) over 50 times, and there have been multiple lapses in authorization (including one for almost a year, between 1990 and 1991). Every time there has been a lapse, Congress has backfilled authority.\n\nTitle I prioritization powers under the DPA are used 300,000 times a year by the Department of Defense for \"[virtually all eligible contracts](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R43767)\", and was used in the procurement of the B-2 bomber, Air Force One, and MRAPs. DPA powers were also used in the execution of [Operation Warp Speed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed).\n\nThere is a [sunset provision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunset_provision#Federal_level) in the [previous re-authorization](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5515/text) of the DPA (in the National Defense Authorization Act FY19), moving its expiry to **September 30, 2025**. This question asks whether the President will sign a bill that includes re-authorization of the Defense Production Act before October 1st 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before October 1, 2025 (EDT), the President of the United States signs a public law that extends any of the statutory authorities created by the original Defense Production Act of 1950 (Pub. L. 81-774, codified at 50 U.S.C. § 4501 et seq.) past their current sunset of 30 September 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38877, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757486118.98338, "end_time": 1758248515.221, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757486118.98338, "end_time": 1758248515.221, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8465774626888889 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Defense Production Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_Production_Act_of_1950) of 1950 is a U.S. federal law that gives the executive wide-ranging powers to intervene in markets and force private organisations to prioritize federal contracts that relate to the \"national defense\" of the United States. \n\nIt has been [reauthorized](https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12484/IN12484.2.pdf) over 50 times, and there have been multiple lapses in authorization (including one for almost a year, between 1990 and 1991). Every time there has been a lapse, Congress has backfilled authority.\n\nTitle I prioritization powers under the DPA are used 300,000 times a year by the Department of Defense for \"[virtually all eligible contracts](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R43767)\", and was used in the procurement of the B-2 bomber, Air Force One, and MRAPs. DPA powers were also used in the execution of [Operation Warp Speed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Warp_Speed).\n\nThere is a [sunset provision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunset_provision#Federal_level) in the [previous re-authorization](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/5515/text) of the DPA (in the National Defense Authorization Act FY19), moving its expiry to **September 30, 2025**. This question asks whether the President will sign a bill that includes re-authorization of the Defense Production Act before October 1st 2025." }, { "id": 38873, "title": "Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?", "short_title": "Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?", "url_title": "Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?", "slug": "will-a-company-with-1-employee-achieve-a-1-billion-valuation-before-2030", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-11T13:45:09.983256Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T15:31:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T06:32:16.938244Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-14T15:32:10Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 5, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 5, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "index": [ { "id": 32811, "type": "index", "name": "AI Diffusion Index", "slug": "diffusion-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/image.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-14T15:38:15Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-14T15:37:51.230518Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T15:55:42.599822Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38190, "title": "Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-07-11T13:45:09.983670Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-19T15:31:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-19T15:31:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Generative AI has been increasingly automating worker tasks. A [2024 IMF analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity) finds that about 60% of jobs in advanced economies are \"exposed\" to AI and that roughly half of those could see core tasks completely automated. In the same vain, [2024 study by Eloundou et al.](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998) estimated that large-language models already affect at least 10% of tasks for 80% of US workers, and that for 19% of workers more than half of their duties are now technically automatable.\n\nIn a 2024 interview, Sam Altman [said](https://x.com/longevitydad/status/1753170944183419346) that \"we're going to see 10-person billion dollar companies pretty soon\" and he implied that there'll soon be a 1-person billion dollar company.\n\nAccording to the [Top Lean AI Native Companies Leaderboard](https://leanaileaderboard.com/), the smallest company with a valuation of at least \\$1 billion is [Cursor](https://cursor.com/), with a valuation of \\$2.6 billion and 20 employees. The most-valued one-person company is [Base44](https://base44.com/), with a valuation of \\$80 million.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a company with only one employee has achieved a valuation of at least \\$1 billion, while earning at least \\$10 million in annual revenue from the sale of goods or services in the year it reached the threshold. The valuation will be calculated based on the latest completed funding round if the company is private or based on its market cap if it is public.\n\nThe company must have 1 employee during the valuation, a company that reaches the \\$1 billion dollar threshold and then sizes down to 1 employee will not resolve this question until a new valuation becomes available.", "fine_print": "The primary resolution source for this question will be the [Top Lean AI Native Companies Leaderboard](https://leanaileaderboard.com/), but other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) might also be used to resolve it.\n\nThe company may not be:\n\n* a SPAC or other blank-check company\n* a royalty trust, master limited partnership, Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), a [closed-end fund](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/closed-endinvestment.asp), exchange-traded fund (ETF), or similar pass-through\n* a shell or special-purpose holding company with no commercial operations\n* an entity whose management services are provided by an external advisor", "post_id": 38873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757140326.116014, "end_time": 1761988220.408, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757140326.116014, "end_time": 1761988220.408, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.2293394539987704 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4190905076480114, 1.9615461178630245, 0.36810393303363553, 0.9418291912930784, 0.4934827535428475, 1.9669931487496353, 0.894068804857845, 0.7505371658039154, 0.0, 0.14101079145771606, 0.658048941412229, 0.0, 0.5041512625524612, 0.09785480469046857, 0.0, 0.5635420001018892, 0.02077269865532973, 0.013580120065969772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1766182993881693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05567178659118242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008334548102400622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005705735607831822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011637816435880369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08895535332445731, 0.6222927254089794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23425169948257646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7395507920346875 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Generative AI has been increasingly automating worker tasks. A [2024 IMF analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-transform-the-global-economy-lets-make-sure-it-benefits-humanity) finds that about 60% of jobs in advanced economies are \"exposed\" to AI and that roughly half of those could see core tasks completely automated. In the same vain, [2024 study by Eloundou et al.](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj0998) estimated that large-language models already affect at least 10% of tasks for 80% of US workers, and that for 19% of workers more than half of their duties are now technically automatable.\n\nIn a 2024 interview, Sam Altman [said](https://x.com/longevitydad/status/1753170944183419346) that \"we're going to see 10-person billion dollar companies pretty soon\" and he implied that there'll soon be a 1-person billion dollar company.\n\nAccording to the [Top Lean AI Native Companies Leaderboard](https://leanaileaderboard.com/), the smallest company with a valuation of at least \\$1 billion is [Cursor](https://cursor.com/), with a valuation of \\$2.6 billion and 20 employees. The most-valued one-person company is [Base44](https://base44.com/), with a valuation of \\$80 million." }, { "id": 38868, "title": "Will the federal US government provide any financial incentives specifically for increasing adoption of AI by private companies before 2030?", "short_title": "Any US gov financial incentives for company AI adoption before 2030?", "url_title": "Any US gov financial incentives for company AI adoption before 2030?", "slug": "any-us-gov-financial-incentives-for-company-ai-adoption-before-2030", "author_id": 272894, "author_username": "mghodak", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-11T11:06:22.046640Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T15:32:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.643819Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-14T15:33:14Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:33:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 5, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 5, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "index": [ { "id": 32811, "type": "index", "name": "AI Diffusion Index", "slug": "diffusion-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/image.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-14T15:38:15Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-14T15:37:51.230518Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T15:55:42.599822Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38185, "title": "Will the federal US government provide any financial incentives specifically for increasing adoption of AI by private companies before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-07-11T11:06:22.046997Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:33:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-19T15:32:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-19T15:32:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early 2025, Donald Trump [signed an Executive Order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-enhance-americas-ai-leadership/) to \"enhance America’s AI leadership\". While the federal government has been actively investing in AI capabilities for its own operations and has facilitated [private sector partnerships](https://www.mintz.com/insights-center/viewpoints/54731/2025-01-24-president-trump-starts-first-week-ai-executive-orders), no incentives specifically targeted at increasing private company AI adoption exist as of mid-2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the federal US government starts providing any financial incentives (e.g., tax credits, direct funding) specifically for increasing adoption of AI by private companies before January 1, 2029.\n\nFor the incentives to count, at least a part of them has to be about AI specifically. General technological progress incentives will not count. They also have to be about the use of AI in private companies, as opposed to AI innovation specifically. I.e., they should be available for companies that do not necessarily build their models in-house.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38868, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755395497.992701, "end_time": 1769490738.016, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.8445 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755395497.992701, "end_time": 1769490738.016, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.8445 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15550000000000003, 0.8445 ], "means": [ 0.8445 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early 2025, Donald Trump [signed an Executive Order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/01/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-enhance-americas-ai-leadership/) to \"enhance America’s AI leadership\". While the federal government has been actively investing in AI capabilities for its own operations and has facilitated [private sector partnerships](https://www.mintz.com/insights-center/viewpoints/54731/2025-01-24-president-trump-starts-first-week-ai-executive-orders), no incentives specifically targeted at increasing private company AI adoption exist as of mid-2025." }, { "id": 38867, "title": "Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?", "slug": "will-openai-surpass-15-million-business-users-before-2030", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-11T10:26:07.866232Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T15:32:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.096547Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-14T15:33:09Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", 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with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 5, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 5, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "index": [ { "id": 32811, "type": "index", "name": "AI Diffusion Index", "slug": "diffusion-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/image.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-14T15:38:15Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-14T15:37:51.230518Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T15:55:42.599822Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On [November 30, 2022](https://openai.com/index/chatgpt/), ChatGPT was launched. Two months later, it had amassed [100 million users](https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/), making it the fastest growing consumer application in history. [As of June 2025](https://web.archive.org/web/20250702213223/https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/), ChatGPT is the fifth most visited website in the world, with [more than 5 billion views per month](https://web.archive.org/web/20250623221536/https://www.semrush.com/trending-websites/global/all).\n\nBusiness subscriptions in ChatGPT have also been rising quickly. In [September 2024](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-05/openai-hits-1-million-paid-users-for-business-version-of-chatgpt), OpenAI reached 1 million business users, a number which had tripled [by June 2025](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/openai-chatgpt-enterprise-ai.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that OpenAI has reached at least 15 million business users. If no such reports are published, this question will resolve as **No.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38867, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755777569.264697, "end_time": 1760618408.674, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755777569.264697, "end_time": 1760618408.674, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9082493307209495 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26102326165716355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021542612258663517, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7469208418768826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.063459122985457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35054963778627757, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4414568481917398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.10874098651214947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04384841732294667, 0.2772265871134363, 0.05630936737947011, 1.0, 0.07128274001026091, 0.5949610715209219, 0.3702636742099963, 0.21810592821876404, 0.4700096739574802, 0.7078535111782481, 6.530020406856287 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On [November 30, 2022](https://openai.com/index/chatgpt/), ChatGPT was launched. Two months later, it had amassed [100 million users](https://www.reuters.com/technology/chatgpt-sets-record-fastest-growing-user-base-analyst-note-2023-02-01/), making it the fastest growing consumer application in history. [As of June 2025](https://web.archive.org/web/20250702213223/https://www.similarweb.com/top-websites/), ChatGPT is the fifth most visited website in the world, with [more than 5 billion views per month](https://web.archive.org/web/20250623221536/https://www.semrush.com/trending-websites/global/all).\n\nBusiness subscriptions in ChatGPT have also been rising quickly. In [September 2024](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-05/openai-hits-1-million-paid-users-for-business-version-of-chatgpt), OpenAI reached 1 million business users, a number which had tripled [by June 2025](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/04/openai-chatgpt-enterprise-ai.html)." }, { "id": 38852, "title": "Will global corporate spending on adoption of AI applications, infrastructure, and services reach or exceed $700 billion USD during 2029?", "short_title": "Will global corp spending on AI be ≥$700B during the calendar year 2029?", "url_title": "Will global corp spending on AI be ≥$700B during the calendar year 2029?", "slug": "will-global-corp-spending-on-ai-be-700b-during-the-calendar-year-2029", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-10T22:22:13.586405Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T15:29:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.739558Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32809, "name": "AI Diffusion", "type": "community", "slug": "diffusion-community", "description": "Tracking the spread of AI capabilities through society with the [AI Diffusion Index](https://www.metaculus.com/index/diffusion-index/) and operated by Matt Hodak and Mishaal Lakhani, authors of [Convergence Analysis](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/)' report, [*Decoding\u2028\u2028AI Diffusion*](https://www.convergenceanalysis.org/fellowships/spar-economics/decoding-ai-diffusion-mapping-the-path-of-transformative-ai-across-industries).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 5, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 272894, "username": "mghodak", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "index": [ { "id": 32811, "type": "index", "name": "AI Diffusion Index", "slug": "diffusion-index", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/image.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-14T15:38:15Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-14T15:37:51.230518Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T15:55:42.599822Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38173, "title": "Will global corporate spending on adoption of AI applications, infrastructure, and services reach or exceed $700 billion USD during 2029?", "created_at": "2025-07-10T22:22:13.586840Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-19T15:29:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-19T15:29:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to a 2024 [press release](https://my.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52530724) by IDC:\n\n> Worldwide spending on artificial intelligence (AI), including AI-enabled applications\\*, infrastructure, and related IT and business services, will more than double by 2028 when it is expected to reach \\$632 billion, according to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation ([IDC](https://www.idc.com/)) [Worldwide AI and Generative AI Spending Guide](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P33198). The rapid incorporation of AI, and generative AI (GenAI) in particular, into a wide range of products will result in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.0% over the 2024-2028 forecast period.\n\n...\n\n> While GenAI has captured the world's attention over the past 18 months, spending on GenAI solutions will be less than the combined total of all other AI applications, such as machine learning, deep learning, and automatic speech recognition & natural language processing. However, the rapid growth in GenAI investments will enable the category to outpace the overall AI market with a five-year CAGR of 59.2%. By the end of the forecast, IDC expects GenAI spending to reach \\$202 billion, representing 32% of overall AI spending.\n>  \n> Software will be the largest category of technology spending, representing more than half the overall AI market for most of the forecast. Two thirds of all software spending will go to AI-enabled Applications and Artificial Intelligence Platforms while the remainder will go toward AI Application Development & Deployment and AI System Infrastructure Software. Spending on AI hardware, including servers, storage, and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), will be the next largest category of technology spending. IT and business services will see a slightly faster growth rate than hardware with a CAGR of 24.3%. In comparison, AI software will see a five-year CAGR of 33.9%.\n>  \n> The industry that is expected to spend the most on AI solutions over the 2024-2028 forecast period is financial services. With banking leading the way, the financial services industry will account for more than 20% of all AI spending. The next largest industries for AI spending are software and information services and retail. Combined, these three industries will provide roughly 45% of all AI spending over the next five years. The industries that will see the fastest AI spending growth are Business and Personal Services (32.8% CAGR) and Transportation and Leisure (31.7% CAGR). In addition, 17 of the 27 industries included in the Spending Guide are forecast to have five-year CAGRs greater than 30%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to information presented by the International Data Corporation (IDC), global corporate spending on artificial intelligence (AI), including AI-enabled applications, infrastructure, and related IT and business services, is equal to or higher than \\$700 billion for calendar year 2029. \n\nThe information is expected to be presented in a press release at IDC's [media center](https://www.idc.com/resource-center/press-releases/?origin=old-pr\\®ions=\\&languages=eng). ", "fine_print": "The question resolves based on nominal dollars reported by IDC and will not be adjusted for inflation. \n\nResolution will be based on the first numbers reported after 2029, encompassing the entire year 2029. Any subsequent revisions will not cause the question to be re-resolved. \n\nIn the event IDC does not report the data for 2029, Metaculus may use another [credible resolution source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) including, if necessary, consultation with industry experts as judged by Metaculus.", "post_id": 38852, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756157092.782619, "end_time": 1762001139.565, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756157092.782619, "end_time": 1762001139.565, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.9245270885934546 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6100497057852118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4895195222003634, 0.7845533632614763, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 2.9483234153502096 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to a 2024 [press release](https://my.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52530724) by IDC:\n\n> Worldwide spending on artificial intelligence (AI), including AI-enabled applications\\*, infrastructure, and related IT and business services, will more than double by 2028 when it is expected to reach \\$632 billion, according to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation ([IDC](https://www.idc.com/)) [Worldwide AI and Generative AI Spending Guide](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P33198). The rapid incorporation of AI, and generative AI (GenAI) in particular, into a wide range of products will result in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29.0% over the 2024-2028 forecast period.\n\n...\n\n> While GenAI has captured the world's attention over the past 18 months, spending on GenAI solutions will be less than the combined total of all other AI applications, such as machine learning, deep learning, and automatic speech recognition & natural language processing. However, the rapid growth in GenAI investments will enable the category to outpace the overall AI market with a five-year CAGR of 59.2%. By the end of the forecast, IDC expects GenAI spending to reach \\$202 billion, representing 32% of overall AI spending.\n>  \n> Software will be the largest category of technology spending, representing more than half the overall AI market for most of the forecast. Two thirds of all software spending will go to AI-enabled Applications and Artificial Intelligence Platforms while the remainder will go toward AI Application Development & Deployment and AI System Infrastructure Software. Spending on AI hardware, including servers, storage, and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), will be the next largest category of technology spending. IT and business services will see a slightly faster growth rate than hardware with a CAGR of 24.3%. In comparison, AI software will see a five-year CAGR of 33.9%.\n>  \n> The industry that is expected to spend the most on AI solutions over the 2024-2028 forecast period is financial services. With banking leading the way, the financial services industry will account for more than 20% of all AI spending. The next largest industries for AI spending are software and information services and retail. Combined, these three industries will provide roughly 45% of all AI spending over the next five years. The industries that will see the fastest AI spending growth are Business and Personal Services (32.8% CAGR) and Transportation and Leisure (31.7% CAGR). In addition, 17 of the 27 industries included in the Spending Guide are forecast to have five-year CAGRs greater than 30%." } ] }
