Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=300
{ "count": 5526, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=320", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=280", "results": [ { "id": 37233, "title": "Will Alassane Ouattara declare his candidacy for president of Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire) before June 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-alassane-ouattara-declare-his-candidacy-for-president-of-ivory-coast-cote-divoire-before-june-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:10.016344Z", "published_at": "2025-04-29T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:16.397752Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-29T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-29T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-29T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36611, "title": "Will Alassane Ouattara declare his candidacy for president of Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire) before June 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:10.016344Z", "open_time": "2025-04-29T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-29T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-29T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T13:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-02T13:24:00.387714Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-29T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-29T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Africa Center for Strategic Studies: [Côte d’Ivoire: Efforts to Forge Resiliency Face Stiff Test](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/2025-elections/cotedivoire/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Alassane Ouattara declares his candidacy for the [2025 Ivorian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Ivorian_presidential_election), according to credible sources, before June 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37233, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745954089.708906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745954089.708906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4590733503857216 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6087338181631989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2343430380562021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.885793796274844, 0.9413760306912168, 0.0, 0.33605179509397254, 0.5708338054187606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.926547640815547, 0.0, 0.4104811068714913, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9901858869032678, 0.16107532528278884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07352691875128002, 0.0, 0.6488095940547408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2906730883457752, 0.0, 0.38360011561871216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018241815415611054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18761293738011062, 0.0, 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"latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Africa Center for Strategic Studies: [Côte d’Ivoire: Efforts to Forge Resiliency Face Stiff Test](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/2025-elections/cotedivoire/)" }, { "id": 37232, "title": "Will Virgin Galactic fail to make any new posts on its News page in May 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-virgin-galactic-fail-to-make-any-new-posts-on-its-news-page-in-may-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:10.010728Z", "published_at": "2025-04-29T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:44.783763Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-29T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-29T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-29T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36610, "title": "Will Virgin Galactic fail to make any new posts on its News page in May 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:10.010728Z", "open_time": "2025-04-29T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-29T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-29T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T18:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-02T18:14:06.274174Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-29T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-29T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of April 19, 2025, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped January 30, 2025. The most recent one before then was December 12, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if no new posts appear at Virgin Galactic's News page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.virgingalactic.com/news), timestamped after April 30, 2025 and before June 1, 2025. 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The most recent one before then was December 12, 2024." }, { "id": 37231, "title": "Will Mexico's unemployment rate be under 3% in April 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mexicos-unemployment-rate-be-under-3-in-april-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:10.004947Z", "published_at": "2025-04-29T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:07.810123Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-29T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [US Dollar Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index) ticker symbol DXY and nicknamed the Dixie, is a weighted geometric mean of the US dollar (USD) compared with the following six currencies according to the Intercontinental Exchange ([pdf](https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/ICE_USDX_Brochure.pdf)) which maintains the index: \n\n* Euro 57.6%\n* Japanese Yen 13.6%\n* British Pound 11.9%\n* Canadian Dollar 9.1%\n* Swedish Krona 4.2%\n* Swiss Franc 3.6%\n\nThe index began in 1973 and included a basket of European currencies that got consolidated into the Euro in 1999. The DXY's starting value in 1973 was 100, and subsequent changes in its value reflect its changes relative to that baseline. [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/usdx.asp):\n\n> An index value of 120 suggests that the U.S. dollar has appreciated 20% versus the basket of currencies over a particular time period. Simply put, if the USDX goes up, that means the U.S. dollar is getting stronger in value compared to the other currencies.\n\n> Similarly, an index value of 80, indicating a fall of 20 from its initial value, implies a 20% depreciation in strength relative to the other currencies. The appreciation and depreciation results are a factor of the time period in question.\n\nOver history, the DXY has fluctuated as follows, ranging from an all-time high of almost 165 in 1984 and an all time low of nearly 70 in 2007:\n\n\n\nIn April 2025, in the days following President Donald Trump's [Rose Garden announcement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) of potential high tariffs and trade wars, the USD [fell](https://www.morningstar.com/markets/dollar-hits-3-year-low-against-euro-tariff-turmoil) against other major currencies, hitting a 10-year low against the Swiss franc and a 3-year low against the Euro. This fall was a surprise to many observers, with the tariffs [having been expected](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/trumps-tariffs-were-expected-to-boost-the-dollar-but-theyre-not.html) to boost the dollar. \n\nAccording to an analysis by [BNP Parabas](https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Could-Trump-drive-down-dollar-1/21/2025,51217): \n\n> Donald Trump’s position on the greenback is somewhat ambivalent and contradictory, straddled between maintaining its dominance and wanting to see it depreciate to boost the competitiveness of US exports. The upward impact on the dollar of the tariff increases that he plans to implement is a good example of the internal contradictions of his economic agenda.\n\nAnother of uncertainty is the fate of Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve. According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-would-be-biggest-casualty-if-trump-fires-fed-chair-mcgeever-2025-04-21/):\n\n> If U.S. President Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar, threatening to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is a sure-fire way of getting it. But rarely in markets, economics and policymaking has the phrase \"be careful what you wish for\" ever been more apt.\n\n> Trump's frustration with Powell for not lowering interest rates goes back to his first term in the White House, but his latest verbal attacks mark an escalation that could quickly turn a dollar slump into a potentially catastrophic rout.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if at any point after the launch of this question and before January 20, 2029, the value of the US Dollar Index (DXY) averaged over any 90-day period is is less than 88.00, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB/history/).  ", "fine_print": "The 90-day period refers to calendar days rather than trading days and will be the arithmetic mean of the daily Close prices for DXY. For example, at the time of this question, the 90-day period January 25, 2025 through April 25, 2025 encompassed 63 trading days presented by Yahoo Finance and had an average daily Close value of 104.51.\n\nShould the resolution source be at a different location, fail to exist at the time of resolution, or have clearly erroneous data, Metaculus may choose another appropriate resolution source.\n\nThe question may, at Metaculus' discretion, resolve as **No** before January 20, 2029 if it becomes mathematically impossible for the 90-day average through January 20, 2029 to be less than 88.00.", "post_id": 37157, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752893583.536471, "end_time": 1757886216.083792, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.637 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752893583.536471, "end_time": 1757886216.083792, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.637 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.47578842799446225 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0029426938060152243, 0.0, 0.34390807996629125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7042761895103502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41066503912303093, 0.0, 0.020937430909929024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6177421602512058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06076559320987963, 0.12424350317442756, 1.332567779739953, 0.0, 0.015883435425733956, 0.4615079413522046, 0.0, 0.37278619049345973, 0.1971616248012713, 0.0011269619338877953, 0.18677527058440146, 0.0, 0.24706564089607552, 0.2296111040386071, 0.0, 0.025260392264971183, 0.04827425444877179, 0.4745667909197774, 0.15195867094493953, 1.7804689496187582, 0.0, 0.0, 1.723801077850364, 0.009675584690710932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8046168227176439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01443890889948288, 0.38724420750636684, 0.21574418104780285, 0.000926134218651555, 0.8518348264971184, 0.0, 0.0420416259547181, 0.5173597812495387, 0.024986527846167245, 0.43218499365146484, 0.8069959133207646, 0.0, 0.5947564405157546, 0.07437959169867259, 0.6479244803724421, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00135283348636685, 0.0759009155815293, 0.0, 0.02288835798645694, 0.0, 0.03225826040151549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30490047081677385, 0.06549528002940233, 0.003543251711650053, 0.0, 0.5793857926522531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9516098824506005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37573658647316727 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 145, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [US Dollar Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index) ticker symbol DXY and nicknamed the Dixie, is a weighted geometric mean of the US dollar (USD) compared with the following six currencies according to the Intercontinental Exchange ([pdf](https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/ICE_USDX_Brochure.pdf)) which maintains the index: \n\n* Euro 57.6%\n* Japanese Yen 13.6%\n* British Pound 11.9%\n* Canadian Dollar 9.1%\n* Swedish Krona 4.2%\n* Swiss Franc 3.6%\n\nThe index began in 1973 and included a basket of European currencies that got consolidated into the Euro in 1999. The DXY's starting value in 1973 was 100, and subsequent changes in its value reflect its changes relative to that baseline. [According to Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/usdx.asp):\n\n> An index value of 120 suggests that the U.S. dollar has appreciated 20% versus the basket of currencies over a particular time period. Simply put, if the USDX goes up, that means the U.S. dollar is getting stronger in value compared to the other currencies.\n\n> Similarly, an index value of 80, indicating a fall of 20 from its initial value, implies a 20% depreciation in strength relative to the other currencies. The appreciation and depreciation results are a factor of the time period in question.\n\nOver history, the DXY has fluctuated as follows, ranging from an all-time high of almost 165 in 1984 and an all time low of nearly 70 in 2007:\n\n\n\nIn April 2025, in the days following President Donald Trump's [Rose Garden announcement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) of potential high tariffs and trade wars, the USD [fell](https://www.morningstar.com/markets/dollar-hits-3-year-low-against-euro-tariff-turmoil) against other major currencies, hitting a 10-year low against the Swiss franc and a 3-year low against the Euro. This fall was a surprise to many observers, with the tariffs [having been expected](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/06/trumps-tariffs-were-expected-to-boost-the-dollar-but-theyre-not.html) to boost the dollar. \n\nAccording to an analysis by [BNP Parabas](https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Could-Trump-drive-down-dollar-1/21/2025,51217): \n\n> Donald Trump’s position on the greenback is somewhat ambivalent and contradictory, straddled between maintaining its dominance and wanting to see it depreciate to boost the competitiveness of US exports. The upward impact on the dollar of the tariff increases that he plans to implement is a good example of the internal contradictions of his economic agenda.\n\nAnother of uncertainty is the fate of Jerome Powell as head of the Federal Reserve. According to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-would-be-biggest-casualty-if-trump-fires-fed-chair-mcgeever-2025-04-21/):\n\n> If U.S. President Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar, threatening to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is a sure-fire way of getting it. But rarely in markets, economics and policymaking has the phrase \"be careful what you wish for\" ever been more apt.\n\n> Trump's frustration with Powell for not lowering interest rates goes back to his first term in the White House, but his latest verbal attacks mark an escalation that could quickly turn a dollar slump into a potentially catastrophic rout." }, { "id": 37154, "title": "Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?", "short_title": "BP Outperform Shell June/July 2025?", "url_title": "BP Outperform Shell June/July 2025?", "slug": "bp-outperform-shell-junejuly-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T19:52:15.981264Z", "published_at": "2025-05-16T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:27.421679Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-16T16:44:01.441250Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 123, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T02:07:12.502565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T02:07:12.502565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36532, "title": "Will the share price of BP outperform Shell through June and July 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T19:52:15.981625Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-24T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-25T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[BP plc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BP) and [Shell plc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_plc) are two British multinational oil and gas companies, ranked among the industry's \"[super majors](https://www.financial-dictionary.info/terms/big-oil-super-majors/)\" alongside ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Chevron. \n\nHistorically, BP and Shell’s stock prices have moved closely together. However, since the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, BP’s share price has significantly underperformed its peers, including Shell. \n\nA decade earlier, BP was held responsible for the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in over \\$65 billion in fines for gross negligence. In recent years, BP has aggressively pivoted toward renewable energy, loosening its focus on oil and gas output. Shell has also pursued a transition toward greener energy, but managed to maintain stronger financial performance and better share price resilience compared to BP.\n\nIn early 2025, Activist investor Elliot Investment Management announced a 5% stake in BP plc. [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-13/elliott-pushes-big-cost-cuts-at-bp-to-preserve-its-independence) reported the following:\n\n> Elliott wants BP to reshape its business to be more like other oil majors such as [Shell Plc](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHEL:LN) by cutting spending in areas such as renewable energy, as well as making sizable non-core asset divestments, according to the people. It’s pushing BP to refocus its capital allocation priorities so it can boost shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends, the people said.\n\nElliot, managed by Paul Singer, has produced annualised returns of 11% since its inception in 1977.\n\nThe data source can be found under the \"Historical Data\" tab for each stock:\n\n* [BP](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/BP.L/history/)\n* [Shell](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHEL.L/history/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the share price of BP ([BP.L](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BP.L/history/)) outperforms Shell ([SHEL.L](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHEL.L/history/)) from June 2, 2025 through July 31, 2025, according to the Close column of Yahoo! Finance.\n\nTo resolve the question, the relative share price change between June 2, 2025 (initial) and July 31, 2025 (final) will be calculated for both companies:\n\n$$\n\\frac{P_{\\mathrm{BP},\\,\\mathrm{final}} - P_{\\mathrm{BP},\\,\\mathrm{initial}}}{P_{\\mathrm{BP},\\,\\mathrm{initial}}}, \\quad\n\\frac{P_{\\mathrm{SHELL},\\,\\mathrm{final}} - P_{\\mathrm{SHELL},\\,\\mathrm{initial}}}{P_{\\mathrm{SHELL},\\,\\mathrm{initial}}}\n$$", "fine_print": "* In case of any ambiguity, Metaculus may wait for data errors/inaccuracies to be fixed before resolving this question or use alternate credible sources.\n* If there is an exact tie this question will resolve as **No**.\n* If Shell acquires BP, or vice versa, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 37154, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752962511.757, "end_time": 1753008522.391, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752962511.757, "end_time": 1753008522.391, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40260181476172363 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0027719772151930493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46572683269050547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41139789546716327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003751463215435882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34029419999880384, 0.0, 0.9470743829490742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7961717265997972, 0.8076802787749495, 0.6299942137646893, 0.38637747064730565, 0.7385729374068131, 0.0005676640048993487, 2.386941481789122, 0.0, 1.2350415198552973, 0.0, 0.162491984359063, 0.13451464416125772, 1.20078544470282, 0.18691676533295776, 0.370196744481982, 0.0, 1.8686912068782235, 0.0770239322499232, 0.055676650705994916, 0.14085966230613312, 0.0, 0.9206651311132601, 0.020482295148019, 0.388776863865939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038045040913139735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2622754525086275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13100237621305458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027693241640016297, 0.0361372874092818, 0.0, 0.09851350307208126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01851424336049953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007535015292961775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018684095692476015 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 959, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[BP plc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BP) and [Shell plc](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shell_plc) are two British multinational oil and gas companies, ranked among the industry's \"[super majors](https://www.financial-dictionary.info/terms/big-oil-super-majors/)\" alongside ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, and Chevron. \n\nHistorically, BP and Shell’s stock prices have moved closely together. However, since the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, BP’s share price has significantly underperformed its peers, including Shell. \n\nA decade earlier, BP was held responsible for the Deepwater Horizon disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in over \\$65 billion in fines for gross negligence. In recent years, BP has aggressively pivoted toward renewable energy, loosening its focus on oil and gas output. Shell has also pursued a transition toward greener energy, but managed to maintain stronger financial performance and better share price resilience compared to BP.\n\nIn early 2025, Activist investor Elliot Investment Management announced a 5% stake in BP plc. [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-13/elliott-pushes-big-cost-cuts-at-bp-to-preserve-its-independence) reported the following:\n\n> Elliott wants BP to reshape its business to be more like other oil majors such as [Shell Plc](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHEL:LN) by cutting spending in areas such as renewable energy, as well as making sizable non-core asset divestments, according to the people. It’s pushing BP to refocus its capital allocation priorities so it can boost shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends, the people said.\n\nElliot, managed by Paul Singer, has produced annualised returns of 11% since its inception in 1977.\n\nThe data source can be found under the \"Historical Data\" tab for each stock:\n\n* [BP](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/BP.L/history/)\n* [Shell](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SHEL.L/history/)" }, { "id": 37153, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court allow birthright citizenship to be restricted in 2025?", "short_title": "SCOTUS Lets Birthright Citizenship End in 2025?", "url_title": "SCOTUS Lets Birthright Citizenship End in 2025?", "slug": "scotus-lets-birthright-citizenship-end-in-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T18:10:57.233461Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:21:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-15T22:00:00.266212Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:21:55Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 126, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T01:47:04.497141Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T01:47:04.497141Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32723, "type": "question_series", "name": "Midterm Phase", "slug": "midterm", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T01:47:04.588385Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36531, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court allow birthright citizenship to be restricted in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T18:10:57.233852Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-15T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed the executive order [Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/)*,* instructing agencies to [deny automatic citizenship](https://apnews.com/article/what-has-trump-done-trump-executive-orders-f061fbe7f08c08d81509a6af20ef8fc0) to children whose parents are neither US citizens nor lawful permanent residents. Immigrants-rights groups, citing the [Fourteenth Amendment](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/revisiting-the-birthright-citizenship-question-and-the-constitution) and the Supreme Court’s 1898 landmark [*United States v. Wong Kim Ark*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Wong_Kim_Ark), sued in several districts, and the order was [quickly blocked](https://apnews.com/article/birthright-citizenship-donald-trump-lawsuit-immigration-9ac27b234c854a68a9b9f8c0d6cd8a1c). After losing in two courts of appeals, the administration asked the Supreme Court for emergency relief, arguing that the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” permits limiting birthright citizenship.\n\nOn April 17, 2025, the [Court granted certiorari](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/04/justices-will-hear-arguments-on-trumps-effort-to-end-birthright-citizenship/) and set oral argument for May 15, 2025. The Court's [order](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/041725zr1_4gd5.pdf) also left in place stays by lower courts that halted enforcement of the executive order. A decision is [expected](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/04/justices-will-hear-arguments-on-trumps-effort-to-end-birthright-citizenship/#:~:text=A%20decision%20in%20the%20case%20will%20likely%20follow%20by%20late%20June%20or%20early%20July.) in June or July, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US Supreme Court holds in its 2025 decision pertaining to birthright citizenship that the Fourteenth Amendment does **not** require birthright citizenship for at least some children born in the United States who currently qualify.\n\nThe question will immediately resolve **No** if the Supreme Court issues an opinion that upholds the status quo of birthright citizenship and Metaculus assesses the opinion reflects a final judgment on the merits.", "fine_print": "* If the Supreme Court does not issue a decision pertaining to the merits of the [consolidated cases](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/041725zr1_4gd5.pdf) *Trump v. CASA, Inc*, *Trump v. Washington*, and *Trump v New Jersey* before August 1, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n* For the purposes of this question, if the Court holds that it is permissible to restrict birthright citizenship while preserving birthright citizenship for some categories (e.g., excluding only children of undocumented parents), that still counts as “restricting” birthright citizenship for the purpose of this question.\n* A ruling on procedural issues or tangential topics, such as the permissibility of universal injunctions, is not sufficient on its own. This question is concerned with a ruling issued on the merits of the case. If the Supreme Court denies to hear an appeal related to the merits of birthright citizenship such that Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued the final judgment on the subject that effectively allows birthright citizenship to be restricted, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* Allowing a restriction on birthright citizenship to take effect will only resolve the question as **Yes** if Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued the final judgment on the subject, meaning that legal challenges to the restriction have been largely precluded.\n* Metaculus will rely on reporting from credible sources in the event it is unclear whether the Supreme Court has issued a decision giving the final judgment on the merits.", "post_id": 37153, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752730057.512626, "end_time": 1753627798.289, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752730057.512626, "end_time": 1753627798.289, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.14590605219291833 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.308111891255262, 0.20501011871408753, 1.9325872323059583, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7148689898324727, 0.7193936421320899, 1.6535979167303623, 1.485344795953, 0.13696643541617165, 0.9113499759852601, 0.8240708048630013, 0.07714789497291338, 0.0018853939356329463, 0.5399154992122612, 0.6217783729251721, 0.02686947900519346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49883713041950745, 0.0, 0.13225873789861015, 0.0025876796181943176, 0.0, 0.07570655698498036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041136644328955516, 0.2047786174080201, 0.0, 0.8523201506539155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7640767363961012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14585398402333088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31676975597184576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1029390209692679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3802240356160521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09580740838405215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08910285564825525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19054909718204532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 326, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed the executive order [Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/)*,* instructing agencies to [deny automatic citizenship](https://apnews.com/article/what-has-trump-done-trump-executive-orders-f061fbe7f08c08d81509a6af20ef8fc0) to children whose parents are neither US citizens nor lawful permanent residents. Immigrants-rights groups, citing the [Fourteenth Amendment](https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/revisiting-the-birthright-citizenship-question-and-the-constitution) and the Supreme Court’s 1898 landmark [*United States v. Wong Kim Ark*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Wong_Kim_Ark), sued in several districts, and the order was [quickly blocked](https://apnews.com/article/birthright-citizenship-donald-trump-lawsuit-immigration-9ac27b234c854a68a9b9f8c0d6cd8a1c). After losing in two courts of appeals, the administration asked the Supreme Court for emergency relief, arguing that the phrase “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” permits limiting birthright citizenship.\n\nOn April 17, 2025, the [Court granted certiorari](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/04/justices-will-hear-arguments-on-trumps-effort-to-end-birthright-citizenship/) and set oral argument for May 15, 2025. The Court's [order](https://www.supremecourt.gov/orders/courtorders/041725zr1_4gd5.pdf) also left in place stays by lower courts that halted enforcement of the executive order. A decision is [expected](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/04/justices-will-hear-arguments-on-trumps-effort-to-end-birthright-citizenship/#:~:text=A%20decision%20in%20the%20case%20will%20likely%20follow%20by%20late%20June%20or%20early%20July.) in June or July, 2025." }, { "id": 37152, "title": "Will George Santos receive a pardon or commutation?", "short_title": "Santos pardon or commutation?", "url_title": "Santos pardon or commutation?", "slug": "santos-pardon-or-commutation", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T17:48:00.251141Z", "published_at": "2025-04-26T08:39:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:18.982863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-26T08:40:11.447701Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-27T08:39:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36530, "title": "Will George Santos receive a pardon or commutation?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T17:48:00.251533Z", "open_time": "2025-04-27T08:39:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-01T08:39:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 25, 2025, former U.S. Representative George Santos was sentenced to 87 months (7 years and 3 months) in federal prison after pleading guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft. His crimes included defrauding campaign donors, stealing identities—including those of vulnerable individuals such as elderly men with dementia and a woman with brain damage—to finance his election run, and misusing campaign funds for personal expenses.\n\nSee U.S. Attorney's Office, Eastern District of New York press release: [Eastern District of New York | Ex-Congressman George Santos Sentenced to 87 Months in Prison for Wire Fraud and Aggravated Identity Theft | United States Department of Justice](https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/ex-congressman-george-santos-sentenced-87-months-prison-wire-fraud-and-aggravated?utm_source=chatgpt.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point after his sentencing on April 25, 2025, George Santos receives either:\n\n* A **presidential pardon**, which absolves a federal conviction, or\n* A **presidential commutation**, which reduces the length of a federal prison sentence.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if neither a pardon nor a commutation is granted before January 1, 2033.", "fine_print": "Only actions taken by the President of the United States are considered for this question.\n\nThe resolution will be based on official announcements from the White House, the Department of Justice, or other credible sources confirming the grant of clemency.", "post_id": 37152, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750298103.757925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750298103.757925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.3613776003003181 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8778124927548642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36664430289179084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2050351230052263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 25, 2025, former U.S. Representative George Santos was sentenced to 87 months (7 years and 3 months) in federal prison after pleading guilty to wire fraud and aggravated identity theft. His crimes included defrauding campaign donors, stealing identities—including those of vulnerable individuals such as elderly men with dementia and a woman with brain damage—to finance his election run, and misusing campaign funds for personal expenses.\n\nSee U.S. Attorney's Office, Eastern District of New York press release: [Eastern District of New York | Ex-Congressman George Santos Sentenced to 87 Months in Prison for Wire Fraud and Aggravated Identity Theft | United States Department of Justice](https://www.justice.gov/usao-edny/pr/ex-congressman-george-santos-sentenced-87-months-prison-wire-fraud-and-aggravated?utm_source=chatgpt.com)" }, { "id": 37149, "title": "Will Pete Hegseth be removed as Defense Secretary by September 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Pete Hegseth out?", "url_title": "Pete Hegseth out?", "slug": "pete-hegseth-out", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T16:35:04.518167Z", "published_at": "2025-04-25T16:35:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T18:07:09.293964Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-25T16:35:14.583729Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-16T03:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 20, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 20, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 36527, "title": "Will Pete Hegseth be removed as Defense Secretary by September 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T16:35:04.518592Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-30T16:35:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-16T03:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-16T03:39:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-16T03:39:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Rumors have circulated regarding leadership changes in U.S. defense leadership after a slew of embarrassing incidents including multiple signal groupchats...", "resolution_criteria": "Resolve **YES** if Hegseth is no longer Secretary of Defense according to White House announcements or credible media by EOD August 31, 2025. 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", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves yes if there is an official announcement or statement from the White House that there are plans to unfreeze the grant money. Simply announcing negotiations is now sufficient. Must be in a similar way to the announcements of the cuts. 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Speculation is high regarding next generation releases." }, { "id": 37138, "title": "Will the record for the warmest day on record for the entire planet be broken by September 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Warmest Day", "url_title": "Warmest Day", "slug": "warmest-day", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T15:43:23.184260Z", "published_at": "2025-04-25T15:43:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:10.540020Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-25T15:44:55.520645Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 20, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3660, "name": "Brown University Forecasting Team", "type": "community", "slug": "brown", "description": "A Community page for the Brown University Forecasting Team.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-09-26_at_1.47.31PM_pjC1kqu.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/download_37_D4dN5Ol.png", "followers_count": 20, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 147748, "username": "quinoa", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 36516, "title": "Will the record for the warmest day on record for the entire planet be broken by September 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T15:43:23.184713Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-30T15:43:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-15T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T05:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T05:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The warmest global average temperature on record was set on July 22, 2024, at 17.16°C (62.89°F). Global temperatures have been trending upwards due to strong El Niño conditions and long-term climate change.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolve **YES** if by 11:59 PM UTC on August 31, 2025, a daily global average surface air temperature greater than 17.16°C is officially recorded by authoritative sources (e.g., Berkeley Earth, NOAA, ECMWF). Otherwise, resolve **NO**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745820316.063972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745820316.063972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.37622139699424006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898182977216933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The warmest global average temperature on record was set on July 22, 2024, at 17.16°C (62.89°F). Global temperatures have been trending upwards due to strong El Niño conditions and long-term climate change." }, { "id": 37137, "title": "Will federal legislation be passed before the 2026 midterm elections offering immunity to banks providing financial services to legal marijuana businesses?", "short_title": "Will a marijuana banking bill pass before the 2026 midterm elections?", "url_title": "Will a marijuana banking bill pass before the 2026 midterm elections?", "slug": "will-a-marijuana-banking-bill-pass-before-the-2026-midterm-elections", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-25T13:09:51.429343Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T21:10:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T20:59:25.837993Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T21:16:01.982362Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-04T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36515, "title": "Will federal legislation be passed before the 2026 midterm elections offering immunity to banks providing financial services to legal marijuana businesses?", "created_at": "2025-04-25T13:09:51.429696Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-03T22:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-11-03T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-04T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-03T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As recently as 1995, all 50 US states had marijuana classified as fully illegal. The first state to relax its laws was California, which legalized medical marijuana in 1996. Following three decades of legal reforms, as of April 1, 2025, only 6 states still had marijuana and its derived products such as Cannabidiol (CBD) oil classified as fully illegal and criminalized. \n\nHowever, despite the fact that most most states have relaxed their laws, marijuana remains fully illegal on the federal level. As a result, financial institutions such as banks have several stringent requirements from federal regulators which have, in practice, precluded legal businesses such as state-authorized marijuana dispensaries from being able to access banking services, which has forced them into operating mostly as cash businesses. [According to the Congressional Research Service](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB11076) (CRS):\n\n> Federal anti-money laundering (AML) laws (i.e., §§ [1956](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:18%20section:1956%20edition:prelim\\)%20OR%20\\$granuleid:USC-prelim-title18-section1956\\$\\&f=treesort\\&edition=prelim\\&num=0\\&jumpTo=true) and [1957](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:18%20section:1957%20edition:prelim\\)%20OR%20\\$granuleid:USC-prelim-title18-section1957\\$\\&f=treesort\\&edition=prelim\\&num=0\\&jumpTo=true) of the criminal code) criminalize the handling of proceeds derived from various unlawful activities, including marijuana sales in violation of the CSA. Violators of AML laws may be subject to fines and imprisonment. Individuals could be subject to a twenty-year prison sentence and criminal money penalties under § 1956 for knowingly engaging in financial transactions involving marijuana-related proceeds with the intent to promote a further offense. For [example](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj/pr/bank-insider-charged-accepting-bribes-facilitate-millions-dollars-money-laundering), a bank could violate § 1956 for withdrawing funds generated from marijuana sales from a checking account to pay the salaries of medical marijuana dispensary employees on behalf of the dispensary. [Similarly](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdca/pr/wells-fargo-personal-banker-sentenced-money-laundering-and-bank-fraud), a bank employee could face a ten-year prison term and criminal money penalties under § 1957 for knowingly receiving deposits or allowing withdrawals of \\$10,000 or more in cash derived from the distribution or sale of marijuana.\n\nAdditionally, according to the CRS, the Bank Secrecy Act creates stringent paperwork requirements to file Suspicious Activity Reports for every transaction suspected to be connected with the sale of marijuana, with the risk of severe civil penalties and asset forfeitures faced by banks that fail to comply. \n\nIn April 2025, President Donald J. Trump [was reported](https://themarijuanaherald.com/2025/04/president-trump-urging-congress-to-pass-marijuana-banking-bill-before-midterms-say-senate-staffers/) to be reaching out to members of Congress as part of a renewed push to get legislation through Congress which would ease restrictions on legal marijuana businesses being able to access banking services. According to the report: \n\n> Although cannabis banking legislation hasn’t been filed yet this session, it’s expected to happen soon, with the co-chair of the bipartisan Congressional Cannabis Caucus saying recently that it’s one of the group’s top priorities.\n\n> This isn’t the first time Trump has taken a behind-the-scenes role in advocating for marijuana banking reform. The same two staffers told us back in December that he was privately encouraging lawmakers to pass the SAFER Banking Act. That report was later confirmed by CNN, with an article earlier this month stating “After winning the election, Trump and his transition team quietly backed an unsuccessful attempt to incorporate legislation easing restrictions on banking for marijuana companies into a December continuing resolution to fund the government”.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before November 3, 2026, legislation is passed by the United States Congress which prohibits federal banking regulators from taking adverse action against a bank solely because of the bank providing financial services to state-sanctioned marijuana businesses that are in compliance with the laws of their respective states.", "fine_print": "This question resolves as Yes upon the same version of the bill being passed in both houses of Congress (see, e.g., from USAGov [How Laws Are Made](https://www.usa.gov/how-laws-are-made)) Thus, the bill being signed into law or enacted is not necessary for this question to resolve.\n\nThis question resolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). An example of legislation that counts, if it were to pass both houses of Congress, is [S.2860, the SAFER Banking Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/2860). \n\nA \"bank\" for purposes of this question is defined as a depository institution organized under the [Federal Deposit Insurance Act](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:12%20section:1813%20edition:prelim\\)) or [Federal Credit Union Act](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:12%20section:1752%20edition:prelim\\)).", "post_id": 37137, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752958755.380942, "end_time": 1753172717.463861, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752958755.380942, "end_time": 1753172717.463861, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.1061853996662305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.32526806357643256, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 2.136244385419349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.704933984898323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As recently as 1995, all 50 US states had marijuana classified as fully illegal. The first state to relax its laws was California, which legalized medical marijuana in 1996. Following three decades of legal reforms, as of April 1, 2025, only 6 states still had marijuana and its derived products such as Cannabidiol (CBD) oil classified as fully illegal and criminalized. \n\nHowever, despite the fact that most most states have relaxed their laws, marijuana remains fully illegal on the federal level. As a result, financial institutions such as banks have several stringent requirements from federal regulators which have, in practice, precluded legal businesses such as state-authorized marijuana dispensaries from being able to access banking services, which has forced them into operating mostly as cash businesses. [According to the Congressional Research Service](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB11076) (CRS):\n\n> Federal anti-money laundering (AML) laws (i.e., §§ [1956](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:18%20section:1956%20edition:prelim\\)%20OR%20\\$granuleid:USC-prelim-title18-section1956\\$\\&f=treesort\\&edition=prelim\\&num=0\\&jumpTo=true) and [1957](https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=\\(title:18%20section:1957%20edition:prelim\\)%20OR%20\\$granuleid:USC-prelim-title18-section1957\\$\\&f=treesort\\&edition=prelim\\&num=0\\&jumpTo=true) of the criminal code) criminalize the handling of proceeds derived from various unlawful activities, including marijuana sales in violation of the CSA. Violators of AML laws may be subject to fines and imprisonment. Individuals could be subject to a twenty-year prison sentence and criminal money penalties under § 1956 for knowingly engaging in financial transactions involving marijuana-related proceeds with the intent to promote a further offense. For [example](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj/pr/bank-insider-charged-accepting-bribes-facilitate-millions-dollars-money-laundering), a bank could violate § 1956 for withdrawing funds generated from marijuana sales from a checking account to pay the salaries of medical marijuana dispensary employees on behalf of the dispensary. [Similarly](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdca/pr/wells-fargo-personal-banker-sentenced-money-laundering-and-bank-fraud), a bank employee could face a ten-year prison term and criminal money penalties under § 1957 for knowingly receiving deposits or allowing withdrawals of \\$10,000 or more in cash derived from the distribution or sale of marijuana.\n\nAdditionally, according to the CRS, the Bank Secrecy Act creates stringent paperwork requirements to file Suspicious Activity Reports for every transaction suspected to be connected with the sale of marijuana, with the risk of severe civil penalties and asset forfeitures faced by banks that fail to comply. \n\nIn April 2025, President Donald J. Trump [was reported](https://themarijuanaherald.com/2025/04/president-trump-urging-congress-to-pass-marijuana-banking-bill-before-midterms-say-senate-staffers/) to be reaching out to members of Congress as part of a renewed push to get legislation through Congress which would ease restrictions on legal marijuana businesses being able to access banking services. According to the report: \n\n> Although cannabis banking legislation hasn’t been filed yet this session, it’s expected to happen soon, with the co-chair of the bipartisan Congressional Cannabis Caucus saying recently that it’s one of the group’s top priorities.\n\n> This isn’t the first time Trump has taken a behind-the-scenes role in advocating for marijuana banking reform. The same two staffers told us back in December that he was privately encouraging lawmakers to pass the SAFER Banking Act. That report was later confirmed by CNN, with an article earlier this month stating “After winning the election, Trump and his transition team quietly backed an unsuccessful attempt to incorporate legislation easing restrictions on banking for marijuana companies into a December continuing resolution to fund the government”." }, { "id": 37121, "title": "Will the U.S. Treasury Issue BitBonds by December 31, 2028?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. Treasury Issue BitBonds by December 31, 2028?", "url_title": "Will the U.S. Treasury Issue BitBonds by December 31, 2028?", "slug": "will-the-us-treasury-issue-bitbonds-by-december-31-2028", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-22T19:12:06.837377Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T20:31:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:38.349054Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-22T20:31:54.139958Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-23T20:31:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 36510, "title": "Will the U.S. Treasury Issue BitBonds by December 31, 2028?", "created_at": "2025-04-22T19:12:06.837791Z", "open_time": "2025-04-23T20:31:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-27T20:31:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The proposal for Bitcoin-Enhanced Treasury Bonds (BitBonds), outlined in a April 22, 2025, [<u>Forbes article</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/) by Tonya M. Evans, represents a bold attempt to address the U.S.’s escalating debt crisis while leveraging Bitcoin’s potential as a strategic asset. With \\$14 trillion in federal debt maturing by 2028 and refinancing costs threatening to balloon the deficit, BitBonds aim to lower interest expenses by issuing bonds with a 1% coupon, compared to the 4.5% market rate, saving billions annually. The catch: 10% of proceeds fund Bitcoin purchases for the [<u>U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established by President Trump’s March 2025 Executive Order</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile/), which declared Bitcoin “digital gold.” This question is critical as it probes whether the U.S. Treasury will implement this hybrid financial instrument by 2028, a move that could redefine fiscal policy and global perceptions of sovereign debt.\n\nEconomically, BitBonds offer a[<u> budget-neutral solution to a looming fiscal cliff</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/), with proponents like Andrew Hohns estimating \\$700 billion in savings over a decade from a \\$2 trillion issuance. Investors gain a 1% coupon and Bitcoin-linked upside, with principal protected, aligning incentives amid tariff-driven inflation and market volatility. Geopolitically, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could reduce reliance on foreign creditors, enhancing monetary sovereignty as trade tensions, particularly with China, intensify. However, challenges abound: Bitcoin’s volatility, cybersecurity risks for federal custody, and regulatory hurdles from agencies like the SEC could stall adoption. [<u>Political resistance, as noted by critics like Nic Puckrin</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/), may also arise due to perceptions of speculation.\n\nThe question’s importance lies in its implications for fiscal innovation, U.S. economic stability, and Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream finance. Forecasting this outcome requires assessing Trump’s policy priorities, Congressional support, and market appetite for a novel asset class in a high-stakes economic environment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to YES if the U.S. Treasury officially issues Bitcoin-Enhanced Treasury Bonds (BitBonds), defined as bonds with at least 10% of proceeds allocated to Bitcoin purchases, by December 31, 2028. Issuance must be confirmed by [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), such as Treasury announcements, Congressional records, or major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters). A pilot program of at least \\$5 billion, as proposed by the Bitcoin Policy Institute, qualifies. If no issuance occurs by the deadline, the question resolves to NO.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37121, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The proposal for Bitcoin-Enhanced Treasury Bonds (BitBonds), outlined in a April 22, 2025, [<u>Forbes article</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/) by Tonya M. Evans, represents a bold attempt to address the U.S.’s escalating debt crisis while leveraging Bitcoin’s potential as a strategic asset. With \\$14 trillion in federal debt maturing by 2028 and refinancing costs threatening to balloon the deficit, BitBonds aim to lower interest expenses by issuing bonds with a 1% coupon, compared to the 4.5% market rate, saving billions annually. The catch: 10% of proceeds fund Bitcoin purchases for the [<u>U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established by President Trump’s March 2025 Executive Order</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/establishment-of-the-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-and-united-states-digital-asset-stockpile/), which declared Bitcoin “digital gold.” This question is critical as it probes whether the U.S. Treasury will implement this hybrid financial instrument by 2028, a move that could redefine fiscal policy and global perceptions of sovereign debt.\n\nEconomically, BitBonds offer a[<u> budget-neutral solution to a looming fiscal cliff</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/), with proponents like Andrew Hohns estimating \\$700 billion in savings over a decade from a \\$2 trillion issuance. Investors gain a 1% coupon and Bitcoin-linked upside, with principal protected, aligning incentives amid tariff-driven inflation and market volatility. Geopolitically, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could reduce reliance on foreign creditors, enhancing monetary sovereignty as trade tensions, particularly with China, intensify. However, challenges abound: Bitcoin’s volatility, cybersecurity risks for federal custody, and regulatory hurdles from agencies like the SEC could stall adoption. [<u>Political resistance, as noted by critics like Nic Puckrin</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyaevans/2025/04/22/bitbonds-a-new-take-on-treasury-bonds-to-tackle-the-us-debt-crisis/), may also arise due to perceptions of speculation.\n\nThe question’s importance lies in its implications for fiscal innovation, U.S. economic stability, and Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream finance. Forecasting this outcome requires assessing Trump’s policy priorities, Congressional support, and market appetite for a novel asset class in a high-stakes economic environment." }, { "id": 37117, "title": "If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?", "short_title": "If SCOTUS hears Monsanto v. Durnell, will it rule for Monsanto?", "url_title": "If SCOTUS hears Monsanto v. Durnell, will it rule for Monsanto?", "slug": "if-scotus-hears-monsanto-v-durnell-will-it-rule-for-monsanto", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-22T13:56:03.463117Z", "published_at": "2025-04-24T21:05:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:19.805445Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-24T21:06:11.346422Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-15T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T01:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36501, "title": "If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?", "created_at": "2025-04-22T13:56:03.463464Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T01:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-29T21:05:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-06-30T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-15T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 4, 2025, Monsanto Company, a subsidiary of Bayer AG, filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court in the case [Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell](https://law.justia.com/cases/missouri/court-of-appeals/2025/ed112410.html). The case arises from a Missouri state court decision where a jury [awarded](https://blog.cvn.com/1.25m-verdict-in-zero-offer-case-breaks-monsantos-roundup-trial-winning-streak) \\$1.25 million in damages to John L. Durnell, who alleged that exposure to Monsanto's glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup, caused his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.\n\nMonsanto's [petition](https://content.presspage.com/uploads/2809/4203e574-9a0c-49ee-9476-8ba63ba6e424/4.4.2025monsantov.durnellcertpetition.pdf?10000) argues that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims, especially since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved Roundup's labeling without a cancer warning. The petition highlights a split among federal appellate courts on this preemption issue, noting that while the Third Circuit has held that FIFRA preempts such state-law claims, the Ninth and Eleventh Circuits have reached the opposite conclusion.\n\nThe Supreme Court previously [declined to hear](https://www.dw.com/en/us-supreme-court-rejects-bayer-roundup-case/a-62209872) a similar case in 2022. However, Monsanto contends that the current circuit split and the significant number of pending lawsuits—approximately 67,000—warrant the Court's review.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after granting certiorari in case *Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell* (No. 24-1068), [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has issued a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise sets aside the Missouri state court judgment against Monsanto in a manner favorable to Monsanto. It resolves as **No** if the Court issues a ruling affirming the judgment against Monsanto or otherwise rules in a way that rejects Monsanto’s preemption argument. If the Court does not rule in favor of Monsanto before July 15, 2026, this resolves as **No**. \n\nIf the Court does not grant certiorari in the case before January 15, 2026, this question will be **Annulled.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37117, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750963148.250317, "end_time": 1753555147.942, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750963148.250317, "end_time": 1753555147.942, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.704848603866337 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4376790736727587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.11965943345941518, 2.2486001444754353, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 4, 2025, Monsanto Company, a subsidiary of Bayer AG, filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court in the case [Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell](https://law.justia.com/cases/missouri/court-of-appeals/2025/ed112410.html). The case arises from a Missouri state court decision where a jury [awarded](https://blog.cvn.com/1.25m-verdict-in-zero-offer-case-breaks-monsantos-roundup-trial-winning-streak) \\$1.25 million in damages to John L. Durnell, who alleged that exposure to Monsanto's glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup, caused his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.\n\nMonsanto's [petition](https://content.presspage.com/uploads/2809/4203e574-9a0c-49ee-9476-8ba63ba6e424/4.4.2025monsantov.durnellcertpetition.pdf?10000) argues that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims, especially since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved Roundup's labeling without a cancer warning. The petition highlights a split among federal appellate courts on this preemption issue, noting that while the Third Circuit has held that FIFRA preempts such state-law claims, the Ninth and Eleventh Circuits have reached the opposite conclusion.\n\nThe Supreme Court previously [declined to hear](https://www.dw.com/en/us-supreme-court-rejects-bayer-roundup-case/a-62209872) a similar case in 2022. However, Monsanto contends that the current circuit split and the significant number of pending lawsuits—approximately 67,000—warrant the Court's review." }, { "id": 37115, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS agree to hear Monsanto v. Durnell before January 15, 2026?", "url_title": "Will SCOTUS agree to hear Monsanto v. Durnell before January 15, 2026?", "slug": "will-scotus-agree-to-hear-monsanto-v-durnell-before-january-15-2026", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-22T13:01:39.044843Z", "published_at": "2025-04-24T21:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T04:00:11.104186Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-24T21:05:23.273168Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T01:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36499, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-22T13:01:39.045233Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T01:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-29T21:04:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-14T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 4, 2025, Monsanto Company, a subsidiary of Bayer AG, filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court in the case [Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell](https://law.justia.com/cases/missouri/court-of-appeals/2025/ed112410.html). The case arises from a Missouri state court decision where a jury [awarded](https://blog.cvn.com/1.25m-verdict-in-zero-offer-case-breaks-monsantos-roundup-trial-winning-streak) \\$1.25 million in damages to John L. Durnell, who alleged that exposure to Monsanto's glyphosate-based herbicide, Roundup, caused his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.\n\nMonsanto's [petition](https://content.presspage.com/uploads/2809/4203e574-9a0c-49ee-9476-8ba63ba6e424/4.4.2025monsantov.durnellcertpetition.pdf?10000) argues that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state-law failure-to-warn claims, especially since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved Roundup's labeling without a cancer warning. The petition highlights a split among federal appellate courts on this preemption issue, noting that while the Third Circuit has held that FIFRA preempts such state-law claims, the Ninth and Eleventh Circuits have reached the opposite conclusion.\n\nThe Supreme Court previously [declined to hear](https://www.dw.com/en/us-supreme-court-rejects-bayer-roundup-case/a-62209872) a similar case in 2022. However, Monsanto contends that the current circuit split and the significant number of pending lawsuits—approximately 67,000—warrant the Court's review.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 15, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has granted Monsanto Company's petition for writ of certiorari in the case of *Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell*, docket number 24-1068. The question resolves as **No** if, prior to such date, the Court denies certiorari or the petition is withdrawn or dismissed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37115, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752918323.312, "end_time": 1753069723.228388, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752918323.312, "end_time": 1753069723.228388, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5249541144373128 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.328857256732626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2874765089890791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9376048702068208, 0.0, 0.756513077776665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4134034273851779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 4, 2025, Monsanto Company, a subsidiary of Bayer AG, filed a petition for a writ of certiorari with the U.S. Supreme Court in the case [Monsanto Company v. 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\n\nIn](http://2007:%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5CnIn){kind=link}
