Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=300
{ "count": 6255, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=320", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=280", "results": [ { "id": 39657, "title": "Will CMS's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "short_title": "CMS's close price rises?", "url_title": "CMS's close price rises?", "slug": "cmss-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:30.888140Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T11:49:41Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:18.335142Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:31.253401Z", "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T09:47:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T09:47:29Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:49:41Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39034, "title": "Will CMS's market close price on 2025-09-11 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-01?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:30.888528Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:49:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T09:47:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T09:47:29Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:18.024417Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T13:19:41Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CMS Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CMS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:12) is 71.57. You can find more information about CMS Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMS\n\nCMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity. This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources. Its distribution system comprises 270 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,646 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 81,924 miles of electric distribution overhead lines; 9,775 miles of underground distribution lines; and 1,098 substations. The Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas, which includes 2,342 miles of transmission lines; 15 gas storage fields; 28,368 miles of distribution mains; and 8 compressor stations. The NorthStar Clean Energy segment is involved in the independent power production and marketing, including the development and operation of renewable generation. The company serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers, including residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Jackson, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CMS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CMS. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39657, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756732695.989849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756732695.989849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5253063063063064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 11.0, 5.0, 2.0, 17.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -9.033446436560807, "peer_score": 2.188074200878629, "coverage": 0.929573459978457, "relative_legacy_score": -0.03790657863543029, "weighted_coverage": 0.929573459978457, "spot_peer_score": -0.15876172131595298, "spot_baseline_score": -8.926733809708741, "baseline_archived_score": -9.033446436560807, "peer_archived_score": 2.188074200878629, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.03790657863543029, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.15876172131595298, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -8.926733809708741 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CMS Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CMS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:12) is 71.57. You can find more information about CMS Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CMS\n\nCMS Energy Corporation operates as an energy company primarily in Michigan. The company operates through three segments: Electric Utility; Gas Utility; and NorthStar Clean Energy. The Electric Utility segment is involved in the generation, purchase, distribution, and sale of electricity. This segment generates electricity through coal, wind, gas, renewable energy, oil, and nuclear sources. Its distribution system comprises 270 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 4 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 4,646 miles of high-voltage distribution overhead lines; 18 miles of high-voltage distribution underground lines; 81,924 miles of electric distribution overhead lines; 9,775 miles of underground distribution lines; and 1,098 substations. The Gas Utility segment engages in the purchase, transmission, storage, distribution, and sale of natural gas, which includes 2,342 miles of transmission lines; 15 gas storage fields; 28,368 miles of distribution mains; and 8 compressor stations. The NorthStar Clean Energy segment is involved in the independent power production and marketing, including the development and operation of renewable generation. The company serves 1.9 million electric and 1.8 million gas customers, including residential, commercial, and diversified industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Jackson, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CMS\"}}`" }, { "id": 39656, "title": "Will GPC's market close price on 2025-09-09 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-03?", "short_title": "GPC's close price rises?", "url_title": "GPC's close price rises?", "slug": "gpcs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:29.856588Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T22:59:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:18.837376Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:30.354229Z", "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T09:54:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T09:54:27Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T22:59:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39033, "title": "Will GPC's market close price on 2025-09-09 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-03?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:29.857073Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T22:59:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T09:54:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T09:54:27Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:18.534065Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T00:29:36Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Genuine Parts Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is GPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:07) is 139.33. You can find more information about Genuine Parts Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPC\n\nGenuine Parts Company distributes automotive and industrial replacement parts. It operates in two segments, Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group. The company distributes automotive parts, accessories and solutions and replacement parts for hybrid and electric vehicles, trucks, SUVs, buses, motorcycles, farm equipment, and heavy duty equipment; and equipment parts and technologies. It also offers automotive parts, including brakes, batteries, filters, engine components, tools, accessories, and fluids; custom services, such as paint mixing, hydraulic hose assembly, battery testing, and key cutting; and accessories, tools, and equipment for servicing heavy duty and diesel vehicles, as well as operates service and mechanical repair centers for heavy vehicles. In addition, the company operates independent repair shops and auto care centers under the NAPA brand; and NAPA online, an online platform to browse, purchase, and have automotive products, as well as provides DIY workshops and training sessions to customers. Further, it provides abrasives, adhesives, sealants and tape, bearings, chemicals, cutting tools, electrical, facility maintenance, hose and fittings, hydraulics, janitorial, mechanical power transmission, pneumatics, process pumps and equipment, safety, seals and gaskets, tools and testing instruments, as well as inventory management, asset repair and tracking, vendor managed inventory, radio frequency identification asset management, gearbox and fluid power assembly and repair, process pump assembly and repair, drive shaft repair, electrical panel assembly and repair, and hose and gasket manufacture and assembly services. The company was incorporated in 1928 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"GPC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of GPC. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-03, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39656, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756855955.646777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756855955.646777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.484028806584362 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 6.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 5.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 11.0, 3.0, 3.0, 10.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -5.206088292991781, "peer_score": 1.308894197091711, "coverage": 0.9753882224029967, "relative_legacy_score": 0.07609745492244609, "weighted_coverage": 0.9753882224029967, "spot_peer_score": 0.6454052724912871, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -5.206088292991781, "peer_archived_score": 1.308894197091711, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.07609745492244609, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.6454052724912871, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Genuine Parts Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is GPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:07) is 139.33. You can find more information about Genuine Parts Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPC\n\nGenuine Parts Company distributes automotive and industrial replacement parts. It operates in two segments, Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group. The company distributes automotive parts, accessories and solutions and replacement parts for hybrid and electric vehicles, trucks, SUVs, buses, motorcycles, farm equipment, and heavy duty equipment; and equipment parts and technologies. It also offers automotive parts, including brakes, batteries, filters, engine components, tools, accessories, and fluids; custom services, such as paint mixing, hydraulic hose assembly, battery testing, and key cutting; and accessories, tools, and equipment for servicing heavy duty and diesel vehicles, as well as operates service and mechanical repair centers for heavy vehicles. In addition, the company operates independent repair shops and auto care centers under the NAPA brand; and NAPA online, an online platform to browse, purchase, and have automotive products, as well as provides DIY workshops and training sessions to customers. Further, it provides abrasives, adhesives, sealants and tape, bearings, chemicals, cutting tools, electrical, facility maintenance, hose and fittings, hydraulics, janitorial, mechanical power transmission, pneumatics, process pumps and equipment, safety, seals and gaskets, tools and testing instruments, as well as inventory management, asset repair and tracking, vendor managed inventory, radio frequency identification asset management, gearbox and fluid power assembly and repair, process pump assembly and repair, drive shaft repair, electrical panel assembly and repair, and hose and gasket manufacture and assembly services. The company was incorporated in 1928 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"GPC\"}}`" }, { "id": 39655, "title": "Will WM's market close price on 2025-09-12 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-05?", "short_title": "WM's close price rises?", "url_title": "WM's close price rises?", "slug": "wms-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:29.111444Z", "published_at": "2025-09-05T16:30:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:19.315675Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:29.466081Z", "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-05T18:00:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-05T18:00:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T03:41:32Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T03:41:32Z", "open_time": "2025-09-05T16:30:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39032, "title": "Will WM's market close price on 2025-09-12 be higher than its market close price on 2025-09-05?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:29.111837Z", "open_time": "2025-09-05T16:30:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-05T18:00:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-05T18:00:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T03:41:32Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T03:41:32Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:19.023030Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-05T18:00:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-05T18:00:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Waste Management, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:06) is 226.39. You can find more information about Waste Management, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WM\n\nWaste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. 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The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is WM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:06) is 226.39. You can find more information about Waste Management, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WM\n\nWaste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. 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It's ticker is AMT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:04) is 203.85. You can find more information about American Tower Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMT\n\nAmerican Tower, one of the largest global REITs, is a leading independent owner, operator and developer of multitenant communications real estate with a portfolio of nearly 150,000 communications sites and a highly interconnected footprint of U.S. data center facilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"AMT\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of AMT. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-02, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is AMT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:04) is 203.85. 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It's ticker is DOW. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:03) is 24.63. You can find more information about Dow Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOW\n\nDow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and aromatics products; and other ethylene derivatives, such as polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers polyurethanes, including propylene oxide, propylene glycol, and polyether polyols; aromatic isocyanates and fully formulated polyurethane systems; and chlor-alkali and vinyl comprising chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride, and vinyl chloride monomer; and construction chemicals consisting of cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions, as well as coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites. The Performance Materials & Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings; and acrylics-based building blocks, silicon metals, siloxanes, and intermediates. The company also engages in the property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business. Dow Inc. was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOW\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DOW. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-09-01, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 39653, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756727193.397782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5175000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756727193.397782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5175000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4825, 0.5175000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.5082792792792794 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 14.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 12.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -4.570189329367296, "peer_score": -0.8636206209687476, "coverage": 0.9921018503771888, "relative_legacy_score": -0.08193112854627596, "weighted_coverage": 0.9921018503771888, "spot_peer_score": -0.8495846724799684, "spot_baseline_score": -5.139915250664432, "baseline_archived_score": -4.570189329367296, "peer_archived_score": -0.8636206209687476, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.08193112854627596, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.8495846724799684, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.139915250664432 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dow Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DOW. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-08-31 17:44:03) is 24.63. You can find more information about Dow Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOW\n\nDow Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, and aromatics products; and other ethylene derivatives, such as polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber. The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers polyurethanes, including propylene oxide, propylene glycol, and polyether polyols; aromatic isocyanates and fully formulated polyurethane systems; and chlor-alkali and vinyl comprising chlorine and caustic soda, ethylene dichloride, and vinyl chloride monomer; and construction chemicals consisting of cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions, as well as coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites. The Performance Materials & Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings; and acrylics-based building blocks, silicon metals, siloxanes, and intermediates. The company also engages in the property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business. Dow Inc. was founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOW\"}}`" }, { "id": 39624, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-device-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:28:43.842666Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T15:16:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.005329Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:28:44.113618Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-01T15:16:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39001, "title": "Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:28:43.843062Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T15:16:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T16:46:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> “We are closer to this situation than at any point since North Korea’s last nuclear tests,” said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39322,\"question_id\":38673}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after August 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, Russia conducts a nuclear test, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, \"nuclear test\" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as \"controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology.\" If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.", "post_id": 39624, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756745133.20469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22875 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756745133.20469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22875 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1755432242860824 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "UK Mirror: [Russia warning as Vladimir Putin close to first nuclear bomb tests for 35 years](https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russia-warning-vladimir-putin-close-35801201)\n\n> Military specialist Dmitry Stefanovich is the latest to signal that Vladimir Putin could soon sanction the restart. It is claimed the former Soviet Arctic test site in the Novaya Zemlya archipelago is ready - should the dictator give the order.\n>  \n> The last confirmed tests in North Korea were in September 2017 and it is understood that leading pro-war Russian politicians have inspected the test site. Now the world waits to see if the Russian president gives the green light.\n\n> “We are closer to this situation than at any point since North Korea’s last nuclear tests,” said Stefanovich, of the Russian Centre for International Security, and a member of the Russian Academy of Science.\n\nSee also [Wikipedia List of nuclear weapons tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39322,\"question_id\":38673}}`" }, { "id": 39622, "title": "Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "short_title": "Pierre Poilievre PM of Canada before 2026?", "url_title": "Pierre Poilievre PM of Canada before 2026?", "slug": "pierre-poilievre-pm-of-canada-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:02.629948Z", "published_at": "2025-09-19T19:28:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T20:59:00.183457Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:02.876153Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-19T20:58:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-19T20:58:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-19T19:28:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38999, "title": "Will Pierre Poilievre become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:02.630407Z", "open_time": "2025-09-19T19:28:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-19T20:58:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-19T20:58:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-19T20:58:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-19T20:58:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-10-04 04:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12539). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":12539,\"question_id\":12539}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2026, Ottawa time, Pierre Poilievre holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\n\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.", "fine_print": "Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count.\n\nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: Pierre Poilievre must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution.", "post_id": 39622, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758313645.570108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758313645.570108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.18244432404516273 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.0, 9.0, 2.0, 5.0, 12.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 18.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-10-04 04:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12539). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[The 45th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/45th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before 20 October 2025 to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. \n\nSince the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general of Canada dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister of Canada for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government.\n\n\n[Pierre Marcel Poilievre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Poilievre) PC MP, born June 3, 1979, is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and the leader of the Opposition since September 10, 2022. He has been described as a libertarian and populist, and calls himself a [\"true conservative.\"](https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/05/06/opinion/poilievres-appeal-simple-unapologetically-conservative)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":12539,\"question_id\":12539}}`" }, { "id": 39621, "title": "Will Sam Altman Use Microsoft Teams before 2026?", "short_title": "Sam Altman Uses MS Teams?", "url_title": "Sam Altman Uses MS Teams?", "slug": "sam-altman-uses-ms-teams", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:02.109268Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T15:38:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T17:09:00.156001Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:02.340063Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T17:08:05Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T17:08:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T15:38:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38998, "title": "Will Sam Altman Use Microsoft Teams before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:02.109675Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T15:38:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T17:08:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T17:08:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T17:08:05Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T17:08:05Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-11-28 20:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20096). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nSam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, was fired on November 17, 2023. He was reportedly informed of his firing during a [Google Meet session](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-used-google-meet-to-fire-sam-altman-2023-11). \n\nMicrosoft makes a competing product to Google Meet called [Microsoft Teams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Teams) which among other things also offers video conferencing.\n\nMicrosoft has been a significant investor in OpenAI, investing more than $10 billion in the company and incorporating OpenAI's technology into its products. Altman said he would join Microsoft, before reportedly returning to OpenAI following negotiations with the board.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":20096,\"question_id\":20096}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, by December 31, 2025, there is reporting from credible sources or an official statement from Sam Altman or his representative confirming his use of Microsoft Teams. The use of Microsoft Teams must be clear and not speculative. This question will resolve **No** if no such reporting occurs by the end date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39621, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760461258.605701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14750000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760461258.605701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14750000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23844253849027905 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 3.0, 2.0, 17.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 11.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-11-28 20:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20096). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nSam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, was fired on November 17, 2023. He was reportedly informed of his firing during a [Google Meet session](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-used-google-meet-to-fire-sam-altman-2023-11). \n\nMicrosoft makes a competing product to Google Meet called [Microsoft Teams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Teams) which among other things also offers video conferencing.\n\nMicrosoft has been a significant investor in OpenAI, investing more than $10 billion in the company and incorporating OpenAI's technology into its products. Altman said he would join Microsoft, before reportedly returning to OpenAI following negotiations with the board.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":20096,\"question_id\":20096}}`" }, { "id": 39620, "title": "Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?", "short_title": "SpaceX F9 Launch Failure in 2025?", "url_title": "SpaceX F9 Launch Failure in 2025?", "slug": "spacex-f9-launch-failure-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:01.479602Z", "published_at": "2025-09-28T03:44:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T05:15:00.190611Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:01.801323Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-28T05:14:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T05:14:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-28T03:44:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38997, "title": "Will SpaceX have a Falcon 9 launch failure in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:01.480010Z", "open_time": "2025-09-28T03:44:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-28T05:14:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-28T05:14:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T05:14:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-28T05:14:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-12 14:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31316). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is the dominant launch provider for U.S. and U.S.-allied country space launches. [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) is SpaceX's flagship launch vehicle series, having performed 430 flights as of January 6, 2025. Falcon 9 vehicles have [suffered only 3 launch failures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_history), defined as the vehicle's payload not reaching its intended orbital destination: a partial one in 2012 (where the secondary payload was lost), one in 2015, and one in 2024.\n\n\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31316,\"question_id\":30953}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, any vehicle in the Falcon 9 family has had a failed or partially failed launch, according to SpaceX's reports to the FAA or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* A failed launch is defined as a launch that failed to deliver at least one payload to the intended orbital destination.\n* Falcon Heavy vehicles are not counted as part of the Falcon 9 family.", "post_id": 39620, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759035279.317578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759035279.317578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16451734630353637 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 6.0, 4.0, 3.0, 10.0, 4.0, 2.0, 25.0, 2.0, 3.0, 9.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-12 14:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31316). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is the dominant launch provider for U.S. and U.S.-allied country space launches. [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) is SpaceX's flagship launch vehicle series, having performed 430 flights as of January 6, 2025. Falcon 9 vehicles have [suffered only 3 launch failures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_history), defined as the vehicle's payload not reaching its intended orbital destination: a partial one in 2012 (where the secondary payload was lost), one in 2015, and one in 2024.\n\n\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31316,\"question_id\":30953}}`" }, { "id": 39619, "title": "Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?", "short_title": "US API restrictions on AI before 2026", "url_title": "US API restrictions on AI before 2026", "slug": "us-api-restrictions-on-ai-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:00.991641Z", "published_at": "2025-10-18T18:46:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-18T20:17:00.316867Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:01.247770Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-18T20:16:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-18T20:16:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-18T18:46:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38996, "title": "Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:00.992038Z", "open_time": "2025-10-18T18:46:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-18T20:16:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-18T20:16:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-18T20:16:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-18T20:16:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17100). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of May 2023, US law does not restrict API or browser access to any Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 (ChatGPT) or Google Bard. As the capabilities of such systems grow, and users learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to enrich uranium or create Deep Fakes), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to restrict usage to those that are verified to be in the US.\n\nA similar regime exists for Digital Rights Management for music & movies - access to music on Spotify or shows on Netflix or Prime Video may depend on your country of origin. (And people regularly use VPNs to pretend to be from some other place to access this content.) Copyrights and trade agreements more generally often have provisions for various countries, and some countries like China ban access to entire systems via firewalls.\n\nThis question asks about APIs, not browser or app usage, because APIs are the most flexible way to use large AI systems. (In April 2023, [Italy banned and then unbanned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/28/23702883/chatgpt-italy-ban-lifted-gpdp-data-protection-age-verification) ChatGPT's interface but not the API, which was decried as ineffectual.)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17100,\"question_id\":17100}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31 2025, US law requires at least some powerful generative AI systems to restrict API access to only people in the US, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "* \"Powerful generative AI systems\" refers to AI that can solve a wide variety of tasks, such as GPT-4, and DALLE-2. Systems that translate, do text -> audio or audio -> text, summarize, search, etc. will not count as \"generative\". If unclear, admins will determine \"powerful\" by whether the AI is known to frequently generate things that typically bother governments, such as Deep Fakes or instructions to build weapons.\n\n* \"Restrict\" here will be interpreted broadly. It could be by requiring AI owners to check IPs, like with DRM; it could be by requiring people to verify their identity to get API access tokens, like with KYC. Doesn't matter how easy it is to circumvent such restrictions such as via VPN.\n\n* \"Only people in the US\" will be interpreted broadly, it may include Americans who are abroad, or include non-permanent residents who are visiting, or require some verification only Americans can get like Social Security numbers.", "post_id": 39619, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760817071.567672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21500000000000002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760817071.567672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21500000000000002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.16117291474437698 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 6.0, 10.0, 3.0, 7.0, 6.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 18.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17100). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of May 2023, US law does not restrict API or browser access to any Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 (ChatGPT) or Google Bard. As the capabilities of such systems grow, and users learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to enrich uranium or create Deep Fakes), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to restrict usage to those that are verified to be in the US.\n\nA similar regime exists for Digital Rights Management for music & movies - access to music on Spotify or shows on Netflix or Prime Video may depend on your country of origin. (And people regularly use VPNs to pretend to be from some other place to access this content.) Copyrights and trade agreements more generally often have provisions for various countries, and some countries like China ban access to entire systems via firewalls.\n\nThis question asks about APIs, not browser or app usage, because APIs are the most flexible way to use large AI systems. (In April 2023, [Italy banned and then unbanned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/28/23702883/chatgpt-italy-ban-lifted-gpdp-data-protection-age-verification) ChatGPT's interface but not the API, which was decried as ineffectual.)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17100,\"question_id\":17100}}`" }, { "id": 39618, "title": "Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?", "short_title": "Mifepristone illegal for abortions in the US before 2026?", "url_title": "Mifepristone illegal for abortions in the US before 2026?", "slug": "mifepristone-illegal-for-abortions-in-the-us-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:00.500943Z", "published_at": "2025-10-03T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-04T00:00:00.449687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:00.743832Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-04T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-04T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-03T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38995, "title": "Will mifepristone become significantly restricted or illegal to prescribe for abortions across the US before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:18:00.501342Z", "open_time": "2025-10-03T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-04T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:40:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31324). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nMifepristone is a medication approved in the US for medical abortion and the management of Cushing's syndrome. As a progesterone receptor antagonist, it blocks the action of progesterone, a hormone critical for maintaining pregnancy. When used in combination with misoprostol, mifepristone effectively terminates early pregnancies by inducing uterine contractions and expelling the pregnancy tissue.\n\nIn 2024, the Republican Study Committee proposed a federal budget that [endorsed prohibiting mifepristone](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/22/fact-sheet-house-republicans-endorse-a-national-abortion-ban-with-zero-exceptions-in-latest-budget/), however as of January 2025 this has not been yet enacted. In 2023, [a suit was filed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FDA_v._Alliance_for_Hippocratic_Medicine) by the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, seeking to restrict access to mifepristone. A preliminary injunction suspending the approval of mifepristone, but this was never enacted as it was partially reverted by the Fifth Circuit and then reversed by the Supreme Court in 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31324,\"question_id\":30959}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, prescribing mifepristone for medical abortions in the United States becomes either:\n\n* illegal or\n* significantly restricted, as to prevent the majority of pregnancies in their sixth week from being terminated via mifepristone in every state.", "fine_print": "* The ban does not need to be specifically about abortion; mifepristone becoming illegal or significantly restricted in general would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* If prescribing mifepristone for medical abortions becomes illegal in the US, but it is still legal for medical practitioners to prescribe it for other purposes (such as [cancer](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9693404/) or [Cushing's Syndrome](https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/drugs/18393-mifepristone-tablets-cushing-syndrome)) the question will still resolve as **Yes**. \n* The way mifepristone becomes illegal or significantly restricted is immaterial to this question. Ways that this could happen include, but are not limited to, a federal bill, an FDA rule, or a court decision.\n* Any ban, even if temporary, would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* The ban has to take effect before January 1, 2026. If, for example, a federal bill passes before 2026, but has an enactment date in January 2026, this question will not resolve as **Yes**. Similarly, if a court decision has a delay and is appealed the question will not resolve as **Yes** if the appeal is ongoing.\n* State laws or rulings will not resolve this question as **Yes**. If prescribing at least one brand of mifepristone for abortion is legal and not significantly restricted in at least one state, this question will not resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 39618, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759535804.803265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08942056524375504 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759535804.803265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08942056524375504 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18285271978780682 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 6.0, 6.0, 5.0, 6.0, 6.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:40:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31324). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nMifepristone is a medication approved in the US for medical abortion and the management of Cushing's syndrome. As a progesterone receptor antagonist, it blocks the action of progesterone, a hormone critical for maintaining pregnancy. When used in combination with misoprostol, mifepristone effectively terminates early pregnancies by inducing uterine contractions and expelling the pregnancy tissue.\n\nIn 2024, the Republican Study Committee proposed a federal budget that [endorsed prohibiting mifepristone](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/22/fact-sheet-house-republicans-endorse-a-national-abortion-ban-with-zero-exceptions-in-latest-budget/), however as of January 2025 this has not been yet enacted. In 2023, [a suit was filed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FDA_v._Alliance_for_Hippocratic_Medicine) by the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, seeking to restrict access to mifepristone. A preliminary injunction suspending the approval of mifepristone, but this was never enacted as it was partially reverted by the Fifth Circuit and then reversed by the Supreme Court in 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31324,\"question_id\":30959}}`" }, { "id": 39616, "title": "Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?", "short_title": "Next step for psychedelic mental health US approval in 2025?", "url_title": "Next step for psychedelic mental health US approval in 2025?", "slug": "next-step-for-psychedelic-mental-health-us-approval-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:59.351124Z", "published_at": "2025-10-06T14:41:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T16:12:00.192609Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:59.667775Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T16:11:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T16:11:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-06T14:41:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38993, "title": "Will the next step for the medical approval of psychedelics for mental health be taken in the US in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:59.351523Z", "open_time": "2025-10-06T14:41:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-06T16:11:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-06T16:11:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T16:11:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T16:11:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:18:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31134). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn August of 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [declined to approved MDMA as a treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-rejects-psychedelic-mdma-assisted-therapy-ptsd-rcna165531) Prior to the approval MDMA was [often touted as a potentially promising treatment](https://www.psychiatrist.com/news/mdma-assisted-therapy-may-be-the-next-frontier-in-ptsd-treatment/), but ultimately the drug [faced a number of concerns](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/353752/mdma-fda-approval-hearing-lykos-blinding-misconduct-allegations) about its efficacy results that led to its denial.\n\nOther psychedelic drugs [are in the midst of trials](https://psychedelicalpha.com/data/psychedelic-drug-development-tracker), but trials can often be lengthy and may not produce the necessary results in time for a submission in 2025. [Other possible pathways](https://ondrugs.substack.com/p/the-eua-psychedelics-backdoor-cracks) to psychedelic medical use could include an emergency use authorization (EUA) or federal rescheduling under the Controlled Substances Act.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31134,\"question_id\":30860}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the following happens after December 31, 2024 before January 1, 2026:\n\n* A New Drug Application (NDA) for the treatment of a mental disorder (as defined by the [Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Illnesses](https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/articles/24291-diagnostic-and-statistical-manual-dsm-5), the DSM-5) is filed to the FDA for a psychedelic.\n* An application for an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for the treatment of a mental disorder (as defined by the DSM-5) is filed to the FDA for a psychedelic.\n* The DEA reschedules any psychedelic under the U.S. Controlled Substances Act to a less restrictive schedule (e.g., from Schedule I to Schedule II).\n\nFor the purposes of this questions, a psychedelic is defined broadly and includes:\n\n* psychedelic indolealkylamines(e.g. LSD, psilocybin, DMT)\n* psychedelic phenylethylamines (e.g. mescaline, MDMA, the 2C series)\n* arylcycloalkylamines with psychedelic or dissociative effects (e.g. PCP, ketamine)\n* Salvinorin A\n\nCannabinoids (e.g. THC) are *not* considered psychedelics for the purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "The NDA or EUA application do not need to be accepted, simply filed.", "post_id": 39616, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759764998.872298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2343 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759764998.872298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2343 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7657, 0.2343 ], "means": [ 0.24484853114524527 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 6.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:18:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31134). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn August of 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [declined to approved MDMA as a treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-rejects-psychedelic-mdma-assisted-therapy-ptsd-rcna165531) Prior to the approval MDMA was [often touted as a potentially promising treatment](https://www.psychiatrist.com/news/mdma-assisted-therapy-may-be-the-next-frontier-in-ptsd-treatment/), but ultimately the drug [faced a number of concerns](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/353752/mdma-fda-approval-hearing-lykos-blinding-misconduct-allegations) about its efficacy results that led to its denial.\n\nOther psychedelic drugs [are in the midst of trials](https://psychedelicalpha.com/data/psychedelic-drug-development-tracker), but trials can often be lengthy and may not produce the necessary results in time for a submission in 2025. [Other possible pathways](https://ondrugs.substack.com/p/the-eua-psychedelics-backdoor-cracks) to psychedelic medical use could include an emergency use authorization (EUA) or federal rescheduling under the Controlled Substances Act.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31134,\"question_id\":30860}}`" }, { "id": 39613, "title": "Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Nonlinear Fund Continues to 2026", "url_title": "Nonlinear Fund Continues to 2026", "slug": "nonlinear-fund-continues-to-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:57.691192Z", "published_at": "2025-09-26T09:16:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-26T10:47:00.224453Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:57.933763Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-26T10:46:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-26T10:46:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-26T09:16:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38990, "title": "Will the Nonlinear Fund have more than eight full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:57.691603Z", "open_time": "2025-09-26T09:16:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-26T10:46:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-26T10:46:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-26T10:46:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-26T10:46:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-06-03 05:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7100). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Nonlinear Fund](http://www.nonlinearfund.org/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fX8JsabQyRSd7zWiD/introducing-the-nonlinear-fund-ai-safety-research-incubation) incubator, aiming to \"research, fund, and seed AI Safety interventions\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7100,\"question_id\":7100}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Nonlinear Fund has 9 or more full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026, according to public information given by the Nonlinear Fund. For this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours or more per week, without including volunteers. The question will resolve as **No** if the project has clearly been abandoned or it is determined there are 8 or fewer full-time equivalent employees on January 1, 2026", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39613, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758882364.981509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758882364.981509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.26194892697220995 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2022-06-03 05:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7100). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Nonlinear Fund](http://www.nonlinearfund.org/) is a [recently launched](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fX8JsabQyRSd7zWiD/introducing-the-nonlinear-fund-ai-safety-research-incubation) incubator, aiming to \"research, fund, and seed AI Safety interventions\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7100,\"question_id\":7100}}`" }, { "id": 39612, "title": "Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?", "short_title": "Rachel Reeves remains UK Chancellor until Dec. 2025?", "url_title": "Rachel Reeves remains UK Chancellor until Dec. 2025?", "slug": "rachel-reeves-remains-uk-chancellor-until-dec-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:57.179075Z", "published_at": "2025-09-07T19:52:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T21:23:00.150493Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:57.421859Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-07T21:22:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-07T21:22:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-07T19:52:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38989, "title": "Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:57.179471Z", "open_time": "2025-09-07T19:52:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-07T21:22:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-07T21:22:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-07T21:22:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-07T21:22:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-11 01:32:16 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38836). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn July 2, 2025, Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, [appeared](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qr9wlpnqo) to be in tears as Prime Minister Keir Starmer failed to confirm whether Reeves would remain in her role within the Labour cabinet. \n\nQuestions had been raised regarding Reeves' position as Chancellor due to a series of failings to push spending reforms through parliament — with the most notable opposition being members of her own party. The most recent legislative failure was regarding [welfare cuts worth £5 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/starmer-drops-bulk-of-welfare-reforms-to-avert-labour-revolt) which were effectively shelved by the Prime Minister after an in-party rebellion, leading to a prospect of further tax hikes and further scrutiny on the tenability of Reeves' position.\n\nWhilst Starmer eventually [backed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckg33njxve0t) Reeves' position as UK Chancellor, there remain significant challenges for the UK Chancellor.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38836,\"question_id\":38151}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Rachel Reeves continuously remains Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom until November 30, 2025, 23:59 GMT, according to the [UK Government](https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer). Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the [UK Government](https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer) website is unavailable or inaccurate, Metaculus may use [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/) to resolve this question.", "post_id": 39612, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757279931.952107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.755 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757279931.952107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.755 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.245, 0.755 ], "means": [ 0.7602937051795579 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-11 01:32:16 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38836). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn July 2, 2025, Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, [appeared](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qr9wlpnqo) to be in tears as Prime Minister Keir Starmer failed to confirm whether Reeves would remain in her role within the Labour cabinet. \n\nQuestions had been raised regarding Reeves' position as Chancellor due to a series of failings to push spending reforms through parliament — with the most notable opposition being members of her own party. The most recent legislative failure was regarding [welfare cuts worth £5 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/starmer-drops-bulk-of-welfare-reforms-to-avert-labour-revolt) which were effectively shelved by the Prime Minister after an in-party rebellion, leading to a prospect of further tax hikes and further scrutiny on the tenability of Reeves' position.\n\nWhilst Starmer eventually [backed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckg33njxve0t) Reeves' position as UK Chancellor, there remain significant challenges for the UK Chancellor.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38836,\"question_id\":38151}}`" }, { "id": 39609, "title": "Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?", "short_title": "Evidence of Alien Tech Recovered at IM1 Site?", "url_title": "Evidence of Alien Tech Recovered at IM1 Site?", "slug": "evidence-of-alien-tech-recovered-at-im1-site", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:55.624236Z", "published_at": "2025-10-15T11:21:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T12:52:00.208274Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:55.855581Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T12:51:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T12:51:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-15T11:21:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38986, "title": "Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:55.624633Z", "open_time": "2025-10-15T11:21:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-15T12:51:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-15T12:51:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T12:51:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T12:51:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-07-21 19:16:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17917). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn his book [*Extraterrestrial*](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomer-avi-loeb-says-aliens-have-visited-and-hes-not-kidding1/), Harvard astrophysicist [Avi Loeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Loeb) suggests that a 2017 interstellar object known as ['Oumuamua](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/asteroids-comets-and-meteors/comets/oumuamua/in-depth/) is [\"interstellar technology built by aliens\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/space/avi-loeb-harvard-university-ufos-b2039269.html).\n\nInspired by partially by ‘Oumuamua, Loeb founded [The Galileo Project](https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/galileo/) in 2021 to \"[systematically search for extraterrestrial intelligence or extraterrestrial technology on and near Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Galileo_Project).\" Galileo planned and [secured funding for](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/message-in-an-interstellar-bottle-c393ea526e9f) an [expedition](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/summary-of-the-successful-interstellar-expedition-61ff4467070d) to recover portions of an object known as [CNEOS 2014-01-08](https://www.space.com/2014-meteor-first-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua), commonly called [Interstellar Meteor 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08) (IM1), which crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014. \n\nIM1 became a target of interest for The Gallileo Project when Loeb and a student, [Amir Siraj](https://scholar.harvard.edu/siraj/home), submitted a [preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07224) arguing—citing a US Department of Defense [memo](https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/DoD.pdf)—that the object originated outside the solar system.\n\n> we identify the ∼0.45m meteor detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC as originating from an unbound hyperbolic orbit with 99.999\\% confidence. The U.S. Department of Defense has since verified that \"the velocity estimate reported to NASA is sufficiently accurate to indicate an interstellar trajectory.\"\n\nIf Loeb and Siraj are correct, then IM1 is the first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) scientifically known to impact the earth. Other scientists have [disputed](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/acm2023/pdf/2226.pdf) their conclusions.\n\n\nBased on IM1's observed toughness, Loeb believes that not only may the object be interstellar, but that it could be [alien technology](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230626-the-underwater-search-for-an-alien-object). To [quote Loeb](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/message-in-an-interstellar-bottle-c393ea526e9f):\n\n> There are two general possibilities. Either IM1 is of new natural origin, or it is artificial, produced by an extraterrestrial technological civilization. Regarding the first possibility, X-ray imaging of the Vela supernova remnant [revealed](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995Natur.373..590S/abstract) bow shocks from bullets flying out of the explosion site, a discovery [I attempted to explain](https://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/9405071.pdf) three decades ago. It is possible that IM1 was a small bullet tougher than conventional iron meteorites, shot out of an exploding star. But it is also possible that it was a spacecraft, a billion-year old equivalent of our [interstellar probes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_probe). Just [imagine](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/the-new-horizons-meteor-a62a3bb177b7) a spacecraft like Voyager 1 & 2, Pioneer 10 & 11 or New Horizons, crashing onto a habitable exo-planet and burning up in its atmosphere. The exo-scientists on this exo-planet would regard the resulting exo-meteor as space trash. However, if they are curious enough to examine the composition of its fragments, they would realize that it was artificial in origin.\n\nUsing a [massive magnetic sled](https://www.livescience.com/interstellar-asteroid-fishing-expedition) to scrape the seabed, Loeb's expedition found [50 spherules](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/avi-loeb-interstellar-object-aliens-b2369534.html) which Loeb believes are portions of IM1. Loeb says these spherules are now being [analyzed](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce) by \"three laboratories in UC Berkeley, Harvard and the Bruker Corporation in Germany.\" Loeb is providing regular updates on his [blog](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce).\n\n> The fundamental question we will address is whether the elements and radioactive isotopes in the spherules have different abundances than solar system materials. If so, we would also check for any anomalies that might indicate a technological origin. For example, the melted material of semiconductors would include rare elements at a much higher abundance than found in nature.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17917,\"question_id\":17917}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if a systematic review of material gathered from the IM1 crash site off the coast of Papua New Guinea concludes all of the following:\n\n- With 95% confidence, the material did not originate on Earth\n- With 95% confidence, the material reflects a technological origin—that is, there is no known natural process that could create material of this composition.\n\nSuch a systematic review should be peer-reviewed and should incorporate analyses of recovered material from at least 3 independent labs. It must be published before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39609, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760531597.603813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760531597.603813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09488386592605162 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0, 24.0, 10.0, 9.0, 3.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-07-21 19:16:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17917). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn his book [*Extraterrestrial*](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomer-avi-loeb-says-aliens-have-visited-and-hes-not-kidding1/), Harvard astrophysicist [Avi Loeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Loeb) suggests that a 2017 interstellar object known as ['Oumuamua](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/asteroids-comets-and-meteors/comets/oumuamua/in-depth/) is [\"interstellar technology built by aliens\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/space/avi-loeb-harvard-university-ufos-b2039269.html).\n\nInspired by partially by ‘Oumuamua, Loeb founded [The Galileo Project](https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/galileo/) in 2021 to \"[systematically search for extraterrestrial intelligence or extraterrestrial technology on and near Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Galileo_Project).\" Galileo planned and [secured funding for](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/message-in-an-interstellar-bottle-c393ea526e9f) an [expedition](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/summary-of-the-successful-interstellar-expedition-61ff4467070d) to recover portions of an object known as [CNEOS 2014-01-08](https://www.space.com/2014-meteor-first-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua), commonly called [Interstellar Meteor 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08) (IM1), which crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014. \n\nIM1 became a target of interest for The Gallileo Project when Loeb and a student, [Amir Siraj](https://scholar.harvard.edu/siraj/home), submitted a [preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07224) arguing—citing a US Department of Defense [memo](https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/DoD.pdf)—that the object originated outside the solar system.\n\n> we identify the ∼0.45m meteor detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC as originating from an unbound hyperbolic orbit with 99.999\\% confidence. The U.S. Department of Defense has since verified that \"the velocity estimate reported to NASA is sufficiently accurate to indicate an interstellar trajectory.\"\n\nIf Loeb and Siraj are correct, then IM1 is the first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) scientifically known to impact the earth. Other scientists have [disputed](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/acm2023/pdf/2226.pdf) their conclusions.\n\n\nBased on IM1's observed toughness, Loeb believes that not only may the object be interstellar, but that it could be [alien technology](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230626-the-underwater-search-for-an-alien-object). To [quote Loeb](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/message-in-an-interstellar-bottle-c393ea526e9f):\n\n> There are two general possibilities. Either IM1 is of new natural origin, or it is artificial, produced by an extraterrestrial technological civilization. Regarding the first possibility, X-ray imaging of the Vela supernova remnant [revealed](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995Natur.373..590S/abstract) bow shocks from bullets flying out of the explosion site, a discovery [I attempted to explain](https://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/9405071.pdf) three decades ago. It is possible that IM1 was a small bullet tougher than conventional iron meteorites, shot out of an exploding star. But it is also possible that it was a spacecraft, a billion-year old equivalent of our [interstellar probes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_probe). Just [imagine](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/the-new-horizons-meteor-a62a3bb177b7) a spacecraft like Voyager 1 & 2, Pioneer 10 & 11 or New Horizons, crashing onto a habitable exo-planet and burning up in its atmosphere. The exo-scientists on this exo-planet would regard the resulting exo-meteor as space trash. However, if they are curious enough to examine the composition of its fragments, they would realize that it was artificial in origin.\n\nUsing a [massive magnetic sled](https://www.livescience.com/interstellar-asteroid-fishing-expedition) to scrape the seabed, Loeb's expedition found [50 spherules](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/avi-loeb-interstellar-object-aliens-b2369534.html) which Loeb believes are portions of IM1. Loeb says these spherules are now being [analyzed](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce) by \"three laboratories in UC Berkeley, Harvard and the Bruker Corporation in Germany.\" Loeb is providing regular updates on his [blog](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce).\n\n> The fundamental question we will address is whether the elements and radioactive isotopes in the spherules have different abundances than solar system materials. If so, we would also check for any anomalies that might indicate a technological origin. For example, the melted material of semiconductors would include rare elements at a much higher abundance than found in nature.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17917,\"question_id\":17917}}`" }, { "id": 39608, "title": "Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025?", "short_title": "Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025?", "url_title": "Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025?", "slug": "will-bitcoin-reach-200k-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:55.137738Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T07:17:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T08:48:00.271496Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:55.398212Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T08:47:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T08:47:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T07:17:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38985, "title": "Will bitcoin reach $200k in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:55.138181Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T07:17:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T08:47:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T08:47:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T08:47:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T08:47:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31099). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nBitcoin's price has fluctuated wildly over the years. It first surpassed $50k in 2021 but then spent most of 2022 and 2023 below $30k. In January 2024, the US [approved](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67916142) bitcoin ETFs for the first time with bitcoin's price rising to $60k. Then, following Donald Trump's win bitcoin first surpassed $100k.\n\nDespite Trump [claiming in 2019](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192?lang=en) that he was not a fan of bitcoin, in [August 2024](https://www.reuters.com/technology/cryptoverse-trumps-bitcoin-stockpile-plan-stirs-debate-2024-08-06/) he stated that he planned to create a strategic bitcoin reserve, something that he reiterated in [December 2024](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/bitcoin-powers-above-105000-first-time-2024-12-15/) and which could significantly impact bitcoin's price. He further [announced](https://apnews.com/article/bitcoin-trump-election-crypto-regulation-c45a747d9c32591bc4e5dcd6e5cc0c22?utm_source=chatgpt.com) that he plans to nominate crypto advocate Paul Atkins as the SEC's chair.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31099,\"question_id\":30831}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if bitcoin has a \"High\" price of 200,000 USD or more on any single day of 2025, according to the historical data by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/).", "fine_print": "If Yahoo Finance ceases to report this data, an alternative [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) will be chosen by Metaculus.", "post_id": 39608, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760344683.210553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34771428571428575 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760344683.210553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34771428571428575 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2589868315536361 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31099). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nBitcoin's price has fluctuated wildly over the years. It first surpassed $50k in 2021 but then spent most of 2022 and 2023 below $30k. In January 2024, the US [approved](https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-67916142) bitcoin ETFs for the first time with bitcoin's price rising to $60k. Then, following Donald Trump's win bitcoin first surpassed $100k.\n\nDespite Trump [claiming in 2019](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1149472282584072192?lang=en) that he was not a fan of bitcoin, in [August 2024](https://www.reuters.com/technology/cryptoverse-trumps-bitcoin-stockpile-plan-stirs-debate-2024-08-06/) he stated that he planned to create a strategic bitcoin reserve, something that he reiterated in [December 2024](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/bitcoin-powers-above-105000-first-time-2024-12-15/) and which could significantly impact bitcoin's price. He further [announced](https://apnews.com/article/bitcoin-trump-election-crypto-regulation-c45a747d9c32591bc4e5dcd6e5cc0c22?utm_source=chatgpt.com) that he plans to nominate crypto advocate Paul Atkins as the SEC's chair.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31099,\"question_id\":30831}}`" }, { "id": 39605, "title": "Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?", "short_title": "US Congress Implements Trump Tariff Policies 2025?", "url_title": "US Congress Implements Trump Tariff Policies 2025?", "slug": "us-congress-implements-trump-tariff-policies-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:53.631779Z", "published_at": "2025-10-25T12:25:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T13:56:00.204906Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:53.935684Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-25T13:55:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-25T13:55:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-25T12:25:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38982, "title": "Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:53.632230Z", "open_time": "2025-10-25T12:25:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-25T13:55:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-25T13:55:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-25T13:55:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-25T13:55:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 20:59:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31044). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nPresident-elect Donald Trump has made tariffs a key component of his campaign. Following his election victory, on November 25, 2024, Trump reiterated his tariff proposals in two messages posted to Truth Social. [One of the messages](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215051155542) threatens to apply 25% tariffs on all goods coming from Canada and Mexico, notable for being US trade partners under the [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Mexico%E2%80%93Canada_Agreement) (USMCA), a free trade agreement:\n\n> As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before. Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border. On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!\n\nIn [the other message](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215408213585) Trump proposed a 10% tariff on all goods coming from China:\n\n> I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail. Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through, and drugs are pouring into our Country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before. Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter.\n\nTrump has previously also proposed a [10% tariff on all imports](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-proposal-10-percent-1700-cost-per-us-household/) and [up to 60%](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trump-favors-huge-new-tariffs-how-do-they-work) on imports from China. Trump favors tariffs as a penalty on perceived negative behaviors of other countries and to [protect US industries and jobs](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-china-truth-social/). However, economists widely agree that tariffs have negative impacts for Americans, through [price increases](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/election-economic-policy-ideas/), [slower growth](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/tariffs-technology-and-growth/), and [failure to improve general welfare](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/steel-and-aluminum-tariffs/).\n\nWhile Trump as president would have [significant authority](https://www.vox.com/policy/374102/trump-harris-tariffs-congress) to impose tariffs, his plans face a number of challenges. For one, an across-the-board tariff would seemingly apply to the United States' [free trade partners](https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements), calling into question whether those agreements can remain viable under such a tariff regime. Additionally, the US as a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is subject to WTO rules, including the [most-favored nation rule](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11030), which requires WTO members to grant similar tariff rates to other WTO members, with exceptions for countries which have free trade agreements and [in response to unfair practices](https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm). Finally, while the president does have fairly broad tariff authority, Trump's proposals are expansive and [may exceed that authority](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/would-trumps-threats-new-tariffs-survive-legal-challenge-supreme).\n\nDue to the potential legal challenges, one possible pathway could be for Congress to pass a bill to impose Trump's proposed tariffs.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31044,\"question_id\":30801}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, the US Congress has passed a bill which implements a 10% or greater across-the-board tariff on nearly all imports from all countries (or other across-the-board fee on imports, see the fine print for details). The tariff will still be considered to be across-the-board if it excludes 10 or fewer UN member states.", "fine_print": "* The bill need not be signed by the president, so long as it has passed Congress (both the House and Senate have approved the bill, including reconciling differences between bills passed in each chamber).\n* Whether or not the executive branch imposes across-the-board tariffs before or after Congress has passed the specified bill is immaterial, this question will only resolve as **Yes** if Congress has passed a bill as described here.\n* For the purposes of this question, an across-the-board tariff will be considered one which applies to nearly all goods imported from all countries. If exceptions are made such that some goods are subject to a tariff rate below 10%, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if, in the judgment of Metaculus, after accounting for the exceptions the vast majority of goods imported to the US would be subject to a 10% or greater tariff.\n* An across-the-board tariff does not need to be one rate applied to all goods, for example, a piecemeal approach that applies varying tariff levels of 10% or greater to nearly all goods would count.\n* The method of imposition in the bill is immaterial, so long as the specified tariff would be imposed. **This includes via methods such as** [**carbon border adjustments**](https://heatmap.news/sparks/carbon-border-adjustment-manchin-cassidy) **or a** [**destination-based cash flow tax**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Destination-based_cash_flow_tax) **that would have the specified effect on imports.**\n* The date the tariff(s) would take effect is immaterial, only the passage of a bill which would implement such a tariff level in the future is required.\n* Pending legal challenges, either domestic or international, are immaterial. The question will still resolve as **Yes** if there are pending legal challenges, so long as the specified bill has been passed.\n* Metaculus will rely on credible reports that it deems to be most accurately representing the situation, including characterizations of the tariffs in such reporting, to determine whether nearly all imported goods are subject to the specified tariff.", "post_id": 39605, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761400334.425246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11428571428571428 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761400334.425246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11428571428571428 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8857142857142857, 0.11428571428571428 ], "means": [ 0.1335065863922151 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 6.0, 9.0, 3.0, 14.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 30.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 20:59:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31044). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nPresident-elect Donald Trump has made tariffs a key component of his campaign. Following his election victory, on November 25, 2024, Trump reiterated his tariff proposals in two messages posted to Truth Social. [One of the messages](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215051155542) threatens to apply 25% tariffs on all goods coming from Canada and Mexico, notable for being US trade partners under the [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States%E2%80%93Mexico%E2%80%93Canada_Agreement) (USMCA), a free trade agreement:\n\n> As everyone is aware, thousands of people are pouring through Mexico and Canada, bringing Crime and Drugs at levels never seen before. Right now a Caravan coming from Mexico, composed of thousands of people, seems to be unstoppable in its quest to come through our currently Open Border. On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country! Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!\n\nIn [the other message](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/113546215408213585) Trump proposed a 10% tariff on all goods coming from China:\n\n> I have had many talks with China about the massive amounts of drugs, in particular Fentanyl, being sent into the United States – But to no avail. Representatives of China told me that they would institute their maximum penalty, that of death, for any drug dealers caught doing this but, unfortunately, they never followed through, and drugs are pouring into our Country, mostly through Mexico, at levels never seen before. Until such time as they stop, we will be charging China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America. Thank you for your attention to this matter.\n\nTrump has previously also proposed a [10% tariff on all imports](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-proposal-10-percent-1700-cost-per-us-household/) and [up to 60%](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trump-favors-huge-new-tariffs-how-do-they-work) on imports from China. Trump favors tariffs as a penalty on perceived negative behaviors of other countries and to [protect US industries and jobs](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-mexico-canada-china-truth-social/). However, economists widely agree that tariffs have negative impacts for Americans, through [price increases](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/election-economic-policy-ideas/), [slower growth](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/tariffs-technology-and-growth/), and [failure to improve general welfare](https://www.kentclarkcenter.org/surveys/steel-and-aluminum-tariffs/).\n\nWhile Trump as president would have [significant authority](https://www.vox.com/policy/374102/trump-harris-tariffs-congress) to impose tariffs, his plans face a number of challenges. For one, an across-the-board tariff would seemingly apply to the United States' [free trade partners](https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements), calling into question whether those agreements can remain viable under such a tariff regime. Additionally, the US as a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is subject to WTO rules, including the [most-favored nation rule](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11030), which requires WTO members to grant similar tariff rates to other WTO members, with exceptions for countries which have free trade agreements and [in response to unfair practices](https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/fact2_e.htm). Finally, while the president does have fairly broad tariff authority, Trump's proposals are expansive and [may exceed that authority](https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/would-trumps-threats-new-tariffs-survive-legal-challenge-supreme).\n\nDue to the potential legal challenges, one possible pathway could be for Congress to pass a bill to impose Trump's proposed tariffs.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31044,\"question_id\":30801}}`" }, { "id": 39604, "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?", "short_title": "An EU animal welfare label by 2025?", "url_title": "An EU animal welfare label by 2025?", "slug": "an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:53.129119Z", "published_at": "2025-09-04T13:20:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.273870Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:53.382332Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-04T13:20:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38981, "title": "Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:53.129519Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T13:20:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T14:50:59Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-02-12 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAt present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\n\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \n\nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \n\nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\n\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":6455,\"question_id\":6455}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).", "fine_print": "The label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark.", "post_id": 39604, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756997314.453271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.023 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1590708437157523 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756997314.453271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.023 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1590708437157523 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11867352253110966 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 13.0, 9.0, 4.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-02-12 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAt present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\n\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \n\nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \n\nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\n\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":6455,\"question_id\":6455}}`" }, { "id": 39603, "title": "Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?", "short_title": "Bud Light gone by 2026", "url_title": "Bud Light gone by 2026", "slug": "bud-light-gone-by-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:52.583828Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T14:14:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T15:45:00.360886Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:52.811238Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T15:44:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T15:44:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T14:14:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38980, "title": "Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:52.584226Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T14:14:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T15:44:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T15:44:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T15:44:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T15:44:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-11-23 19:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19398). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn April 2023, Bud Light attracted controversy by running an ad campaign with transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney. American conservatives began to boycott the company in response. As of the 4th of July weekend of 2023, [Bud Light had fallen to 14th place in popularity among American beers,](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bud-light-plummets-14th-place-210130892.html) [the company had fired hundreds of workers and sales had plummeted 26.5%.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anheuser-busch-bud-light-layoffs-dylan-mulvaney-kid-rock-ryan-young/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":19398,\"question_id\":19398}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes based on credible media reports that Bud Light has been discontinued before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "If Bud Light is re-branded under a different name but Anheuser Busch continues to sell the same product, this question will resolve Ambigious. This question will resolve as Yes if Anheuser Busch becomes defunct.", "post_id": 39603, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760456648.455408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760456648.455408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07346321787493311 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0, 21.0, 13.0, 14.0, 2.0, 19.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-11-23 19:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19398). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn April 2023, Bud Light attracted controversy by running an ad campaign with transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney. American conservatives began to boycott the company in response. As of the 4th of July weekend of 2023, [Bud Light had fallen to 14th place in popularity among American beers,](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bud-light-plummets-14th-place-210130892.html) [the company had fired hundreds of workers and sales had plummeted 26.5%.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anheuser-busch-bud-light-layoffs-dylan-mulvaney-kid-rock-ryan-young/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":19398,\"question_id\":19398}}`" }, { "id": 39601, "title": "Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?", "short_title": "Will FY 2025 deportations in the US be ≥2x those of FY 2024?", "url_title": "Will FY 2025 deportations in the US be ≥2x those of FY 2024?", "slug": "will-fy-2025-deportations-in-the-us-be-2x-those-of-fy-2024", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:51.498714Z", "published_at": "2025-09-17T02:44:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T04:15:00.250498Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:51.744097Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T04:14:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T04:14:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-17T02:44:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38978, "title": "Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:51.499121Z", "open_time": "2025-09-17T02:44:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-17T04:14:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-17T04:14:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-17T04:14:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-17T04:14:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:40:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31296). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFor fiscal year 2024, which ran from October 1, 2023 to September 30, 2024, ICE [reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ice-deportations-catch-up-trump-era-numbers-fy-2024-biden-admin-comes-close) 271,484 deportations of illegal immigrants. This was up 43% compared to the 190,197 deportations in 2023, and was also up 3% compared with the 262,591 deportations [reported](https://www.ice.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Document/2019/eroReportFY2019.pdf) for the final pre-pandemic year of 2019, which was the peak number of deportations in Donald Trump's first term. Additionally, the number of deportations in 2023 was a [10-year high](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/deportations-by-ice-10-year-high-in-2024-surpassing-trump-era-peak/). \n\nIn the 2024 election year, Donald Trump made increased deportations a central promise of his campaign, with signs at the Republican National Convention [saying](https://apnews.com/article/trump-mass-deportations-latino-voters-ec64f85e3633c9c7a8a247eaf9feb64f) \"Mass Deportation Now!\" In a recent interview with Time Magazine, Trump [discussed](https://time.com/6972022/donald-trump-transcript-2024-election/) 15 to 20 million people when asked about his deportation plans. However, as [pointed out](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/19/trump-immigration-deportation-border-migrants-detention-camps-mexico-dhs-ice/) in Foreign Policy Magazine: \n\n> In his first term, Trump did not push very hard. While he [all but shut down](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-politics-virus-outbreak-immigration-immigration-policy-1f8c91e31fba158126f8e91c1453b13f) refugee admissions from overseas, took steps to curb legal migration, and tightened the U.S. border with Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, his administration did little to remove migrants already present in the country. The total number of deportations during his first four years was [1.5 million](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/11/politics/deportations-trump-presidency-what-matters/index.html)—half as many as President Barack Obama’s first term and similar to the number in Obama’s second term and outgoing President Joe Biden’s four years.\n\nFor more information please see: \n\n* [ICE Fiscal Year 2024 Annual Report](https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf)\n* EconoFact: [Immigrant Deportations: Trends and Impacts](https://econofact.org/immigrant-deportations-trends-and-impacts)\n* Spectrum News: [Experts discuss magnitude of resources needed to locate people eligible for deportation](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/news/2024/12/05/immigration-experts-mass-deportation-resources)\n* NBC News: [Inside the 'targeted operations' ICE agents carry out against undocumented immigrants](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/targeted-operations-ice-agents-carry-undocumented-immigrants-rcna184805)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31296,\"question_id\":30937}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total number of expulsions or removals [reported](https://www.ice.gov/spotlight/statistics) by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for FY 2025 is at least double the number shown for FY 2024 at the time. If the number reported for FY 2025 is less than double that of FY 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The number shown at the time of this question for FY 2024 is 271,484 (271,484 [Title 8](https://uscode.house.gov/browse/prelim@title8\\&edition=prelim) Removals and 0 [Title 42](https://uscode.house.gov/browse/prelim@title42\\&edition=prelim) Expulsions). Thus, double that number would be 542,968, and that would be the threshold for **Yes**. However, if ICE later revises the number for FY 2024 by the time it posts its FY 2025 figures, then the revised number reported at the time will be used. Following the resolution of this question, no further revisions to either FY 2024 or FY 2025 numbers will be taken into account.\n\nIn addition to Titles 8 and 42, any other authorities unambiguously included by ICE as part of its total number of reported deportations, expulsions or removals will also count.\n\nIf ICE stops timely publishing these figures at the main resolution source, the question may resolve based on other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 39601, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758082369.71142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.062 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758082369.71142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.062 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.938, 0.062 ], "means": [ 0.12145563232619962 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 16.0, 13.0, 6.0, 1.0, 8.0, 4.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:40:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31296). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFor fiscal year 2024, which ran from October 1, 2023 to September 30, 2024, ICE [reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ice-deportations-catch-up-trump-era-numbers-fy-2024-biden-admin-comes-close) 271,484 deportations of illegal immigrants. This was up 43% compared to the 190,197 deportations in 2023, and was also up 3% compared with the 262,591 deportations [reported](https://www.ice.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Document/2019/eroReportFY2019.pdf) for the final pre-pandemic year of 2019, which was the peak number of deportations in Donald Trump's first term. Additionally, the number of deportations in 2023 was a [10-year high](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/deportations-by-ice-10-year-high-in-2024-surpassing-trump-era-peak/). \n\nIn the 2024 election year, Donald Trump made increased deportations a central promise of his campaign, with signs at the Republican National Convention [saying](https://apnews.com/article/trump-mass-deportations-latino-voters-ec64f85e3633c9c7a8a247eaf9feb64f) \"Mass Deportation Now!\" In a recent interview with Time Magazine, Trump [discussed](https://time.com/6972022/donald-trump-transcript-2024-election/) 15 to 20 million people when asked about his deportation plans. However, as [pointed out](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/19/trump-immigration-deportation-border-migrants-detention-camps-mexico-dhs-ice/) in Foreign Policy Magazine: \n\n> In his first term, Trump did not push very hard. While he [all but shut down](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-politics-virus-outbreak-immigration-immigration-policy-1f8c91e31fba158126f8e91c1453b13f) refugee admissions from overseas, took steps to curb legal migration, and tightened the U.S. border with Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic, his administration did little to remove migrants already present in the country. The total number of deportations during his first four years was [1.5 million](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/11/politics/deportations-trump-presidency-what-matters/index.html)—half as many as President Barack Obama’s first term and similar to the number in Obama’s second term and outgoing President Joe Biden’s four years.\n\nFor more information please see: \n\n* [ICE Fiscal Year 2024 Annual Report](https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf)\n* EconoFact: [Immigrant Deportations: Trends and Impacts](https://econofact.org/immigrant-deportations-trends-and-impacts)\n* Spectrum News: [Experts discuss magnitude of resources needed to locate people eligible for deportation](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/south-texas-el-paso/news/2024/12/05/immigration-experts-mass-deportation-resources)\n* NBC News: [Inside the 'targeted operations' ICE agents carry out against undocumented immigrants](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/targeted-operations-ice-agents-carry-undocumented-immigrants-rcna184805)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31296,\"question_id\":30937}}`" } ] }
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