Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3000
{ "count": 6357, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3020", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2980", "results": [ { "id": 25351, "title": "Will Sam Altman run for President of the United States before 2040?", "short_title": "Sam Altman run for POTUS by 2040", "url_title": "Sam Altman run for POTUS by 2040", "slug": "sam-altman-run-for-potus-by-2040", "author_id": 123192, "author_username": "atgctg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-09T14:35:39.882055Z", "published_at": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T15:06:41.131555Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25351, "title": "Will Sam Altman run for President of the United States before 2040?", "created_at": "2024-06-09T14:35:39.882055Z", "open_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-17T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-17T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sam Altman, currently the CEO of OpenAI, is a prominent figure in the tech industry. His involvement in various technological advancements and his [public statements on policy](https://moores.samaltman.com/) and future societal challenges have led to [speculation about his potential political ambitions](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/10/sam-altmans-manifest-destiny#:~:text=he%20should%20run%20for%20President%20in%202020). This question seeks to forecast whether Sam Altman will announce his candidacy for the U.S. presidency by the year 2040.\n\nIn late 2023, there were [rumors](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/11/18/tech-glitch-makes-people-think-sam-altman-is-running-for-president/) that Altman would run for president in the 2024 election, although this seems to have been a tech glitch with the X (formerly Twitter) platform.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to “Yes” if on or before December 31, 2039, Sam Altman has filed FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy in relation to a United States presidential election.", "fine_print": "Altman must be a candidate for the office of president of the United States; candidacy for any other office (including vice president) will not suffice for positive resolution\n\nIf the law changes such that *FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy* is no longer the name of the form, this question resolves based on any equivalent official form required by law for officially declaring candidacy for a United States presidential election.", "post_id": 25351, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761750390.351379, "end_time": 1767424834.788686, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761750390.351379, "end_time": 1767424834.788686, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.13975207406682935 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0508567084973865, 1.3136306000343745, 0.8039004749638528, 0.18444282413373944, 0.4246935032136042, 0.06785272307040267, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7178340848142957 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289354.709624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289354.709624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9979636311807624, 0.0020363688192376835 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sam Altman, currently the CEO of OpenAI, is a prominent figure in the tech industry. His involvement in various technological advancements and his [public statements on policy](https://moores.samaltman.com/) and future societal challenges have led to [speculation about his potential political ambitions](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/10/sam-altmans-manifest-destiny#:~:text=he%20should%20run%20for%20President%20in%202020). This question seeks to forecast whether Sam Altman will announce his candidacy for the U.S. presidency by the year 2040.\n\nIn late 2023, there were [rumors](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/11/18/tech-glitch-makes-people-think-sam-altman-is-running-for-president/) that Altman would run for president in the 2024 election, although this seems to have been a tech glitch with the X (formerly Twitter) platform." }, { "id": 25349, "title": "Will the Arizona Coyotes rejoin the NHL by 2029?", "short_title": "Arizona Coyotes Return 2029", "url_title": "Arizona Coyotes Return 2029", "slug": "arizona-coyotes-return-2029", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-08T23:46:54.217832Z", "published_at": "2024-06-12T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.736156Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-12T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-12T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25349, "title": "Will the Arizona Coyotes rejoin the NHL by 2029?", "created_at": "2024-06-08T23:46:54.217832Z", "open_time": "2024-06-12T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-15T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[In May 2023,](https://theathletic.com/5424825/2024/04/18/coyotes-move-to-utah-salt-lake-city/) after the residents of Tempe, Arizona rejected a proposal to build a new hockey arena, the Arizona Coyotes suspended operations. This followed [years of low attendance for the Coyotes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Hockey_League_attendance_figures#2021%E2%80%9322_attendance_statistics) Unless the Coyotes secure a new arena by 2029, [the NHL will have the right to fold the franchise.](https://media.nhl.com/public/news/17935)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the National Hockey League (NHL) officially announces that the Coyotes hockey team has secured a new arena in the state of Arizona and will begin hockey operations again before January 1st, 2029.\n\nIf both these events have not occurred before that date, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Name changes will not affect resolution of this question.\n\nIf the team relocates outside of Arizona, this question resolves as No.", "post_id": 25349, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740392593.183174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740392593.183174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.22905725630939308 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0437146786346598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288679.286048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288679.286048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9068861322971422, 0.09311386770285782 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[In May 2023,](https://theathletic.com/5424825/2024/04/18/coyotes-move-to-utah-salt-lake-city/) after the residents of Tempe, Arizona rejected a proposal to build a new hockey arena, the Arizona Coyotes suspended operations. This followed [years of low attendance for the Coyotes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Hockey_League_attendance_figures#2021%E2%80%9322_attendance_statistics) Unless the Coyotes secure a new arena by 2029, [the NHL will have the right to fold the franchise.](https://media.nhl.com/public/news/17935)" }, { "id": 25140, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market", "url_title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market", "slug": "on-june-28th-2024-will-nvidias-market", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.791078Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.756814Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:01.046608Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25140, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.791078Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:20.602374Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25140, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 25141, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "short_title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Inst", "url_title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Inst", "slug": "short-fuse-will-the-proxy-advisor-inst", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.784040Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.298617Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:00.815672Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25141, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.784040Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:12.929261Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Tesla’s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla’s incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as “crap”.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) releases a statement explicitly advising Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's pay package at the 2024 Tesla shareholder meeting OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk to the Tesla board of directors. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25141, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Tesla’s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla’s incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as “crap”.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)" }, { "id": 25139, "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?", "short_title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospital", "url_title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospital", "slug": "will-the-maximum-weekly-rate-of-hospital", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.778117Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.294667Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:00.925668Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-29T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25139, "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.778117Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-29T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:41.953731Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV that occurs in the 2023-24 season is less than or equal to four weeks (28 days) from the date of the maximum rate for all three combined, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The four weeks will be based on the week end dates. The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters. For the purposes of this question, the 2023-2024 season will be considered to begin with the week ending on October 7, 2023, and end on the week ending June 1, 2024.\n\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the relevant figures for the current season is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25139, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022." }, { "id": 25138, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "short_title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Inst", "url_title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Inst", "slug": "short-fuse-will-the-proxy-advisor-inst", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.768232Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.579031Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:00.826538Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25138, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.768232Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:44:31.758797Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Tesla’s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla’s incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as “crap”.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n*Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?*\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) releases a statement explicitly advising Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's pay package at the 2024 Tesla shareholder meeting OR the re-election of the Kimbal Musk to the Tesla board of directors. Otherwise the question will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Tesla’s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla’s incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as “crap”.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n*Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?*\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)" }, { "id": 25137, "title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?", "short_title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurali", "url_title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurali", "slug": "will-fidesz-kdnp-maintain-its-eu-plurali", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.764872Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.956186Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:00.729296Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-16T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25137, "title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.764872Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-16T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:08.160899Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Fidesz-KDNP alliance has long been a dominant political force in Hungary, championed by Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP). Since 2005, they have secured a significant majority of Hungary's seats in the European Parliament, capitalizing on shared conservative and nationalistic ideologies. \n\nHowever, the alliance faces [new challenges](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-eu-election-magyar-fidesz-russia-f53cd35e52a9f91c34b00d8dd6f85694) as Péter Magyar, a former insider of the Fidesz party, breaks ranks and forms his own party, Tisztelet és Szabadság (Respect and Freedom). Magyar's emergence comes at a time when Fidesz is grappling with scandals and a loss of public trust, highlighted by significant resignations within its ranks.\n\nThe 2024 European Parliament elections are critical for the alliance as they face increasing internal and EU-wide challenges, including economic pressures and debates over the EU's influence on national policies. These elections will test the alliance's ability to maintain its influence amid growing political diversity and opposition within Hungary.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if, following the 2024 European Parliament elections, the Fidesz-KDNP alliance secures more seats than any other single party or coalition, thereby maintaining the highest number of Hungarian seats in the European Parliament, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25137, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Fidesz-KDNP alliance has long been a dominant political force in Hungary, championed by Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP). Since 2005, they have secured a significant majority of Hungary's seats in the European Parliament, capitalizing on shared conservative and nationalistic ideologies. \n\nHowever, the alliance faces [new challenges](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-eu-election-magyar-fidesz-russia-f53cd35e52a9f91c34b00d8dd6f85694) as Péter Magyar, a former insider of the Fidesz party, breaks ranks and forms his own party, Tisztelet és Szabadság (Respect and Freedom). Magyar's emergence comes at a time when Fidesz is grappling with scandals and a loss of public trust, highlighted by significant resignations within its ranks.\n\nThe 2024 European Parliament elections are critical for the alliance as they face increasing internal and EU-wide challenges, including economic pressures and debates over the EU's influence on national policies. These elections will test the alliance's ability to maintain its influence amid growing political diversity and opposition within Hungary." }, { "id": 25136, "title": "Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?", "short_title": "Will a journalist or an opposition polit", "url_title": "Will a journalist or an opposition polit", "slug": "will-a-journalist-or-an-opposition-polit", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.753158Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.938007Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:01.007476Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25136, "title": "Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.753158Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:48.119257Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 15th, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-SD party) was targeted in an [assassination attempt](https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting-fico-23faba11c0f371ef0f69a34861337ae0) after leaving a governmental meeting in the town of Handlová. The assailant, Juraj Cintula, managed to fire at least five bullets from very close proximity before being subdued. Prime Minister Fico was urgently taken to the hospital; his [condition](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/?intcid=CNR-02-0623) remains serious but stable.\n\nJust a few hours after the attack, the Deputy Chairman of the Slovak Parliament, Ľuboš Blaho (SMER-SD party), in an emotional speech, blamed the [\"liberal media\"](https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/nejvetsi-radikalove-vladni-koalice-obvinili-z-atentatu-na-fica-media-a-opozici_2405151955_jgr) and the political opposition for inciting the shooter. Concurrently, Andrej Danko, leader of the SNS party, which is a member of the ruling coalition, echoed this sentiment.\n\nRobert Kaliňák, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, has been the most prominent figure in the aftermath, with his statements also targeting the media and political opposition.\n\nOutgoing Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová and newly elected President Peter Pellegrini have called for societal calm and are orchestrating a [meeting](https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/caputova-a-pellegrini-vyzvali-k-opusteni-bludneho-kruhu-nenavisti/2519316) with all major political entities in Slovakia, scheduled for May 21. However, so far, all governmental parties have either not responded or declined the invitation.\n\nTo date, apart from the shooter, only one individual has been charged in connection with the assassination attempt, and it was for spreading online hate. Paradoxically, despite the framing by the governmental politicians, the shooter was no fan of the liberal opposition and reportedly also a member of the recently disbanded [\"Slovenskí Branci\"](https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/what-is-known-about-suspect-allegedly-involved-in-shooting-of-robert-fico) paramilitary group, which had ties to Russia.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **YES** if [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) Slovak media outlets or international news organizations report that a Slovak journalist or opposition politician has been criminally charged in connection with the assassination attempt.\n\nAlternatively, the resolution will also be **YES** if relevant Slovak institutions (e.g., the public prosecutor's office, courts, police, and similar authorities) issue a statement to that effect.\n\nOtherwise, the question will be resolved as **NO**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25136, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 15th, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-SD party) was targeted in an [assassination attempt](https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting-fico-23faba11c0f371ef0f69a34861337ae0) after leaving a governmental meeting in the town of Handlová. The assailant, Juraj Cintula, managed to fire at least five bullets from very close proximity before being subdued. Prime Minister Fico was urgently taken to the hospital; his [condition](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/?intcid=CNR-02-0623) remains serious but stable.\n\nJust a few hours after the attack, the Deputy Chairman of the Slovak Parliament, Ľuboš Blaho (SMER-SD party), in an emotional speech, blamed the [\"liberal media\"](https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/nejvetsi-radikalove-vladni-koalice-obvinili-z-atentatu-na-fica-media-a-opozici_2405151955_jgr) and the political opposition for inciting the shooter. Concurrently, Andrej Danko, leader of the SNS party, which is a member of the ruling coalition, echoed this sentiment.\n\nRobert Kaliňák, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, has been the most prominent figure in the aftermath, with his statements also targeting the media and political opposition.\n\nOutgoing Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová and newly elected President Peter Pellegrini have called for societal calm and are orchestrating a [meeting](https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/caputova-a-pellegrini-vyzvali-k-opusteni-bludneho-kruhu-nenavisti/2519316) with all major political entities in Slovakia, scheduled for May 21. However, so far, all governmental parties have either not responded or declined the invitation.\n\nTo date, apart from the shooter, only one individual has been charged in connection with the assassination attempt, and it was for spreading online hate. Paradoxically, despite the framing by the governmental politicians, the shooter was no fan of the liberal opposition and reportedly also a member of the recently disbanded [\"Slovenskí Branci\"](https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/what-is-known-about-suspect-allegedly-involved-in-shooting-of-robert-fico) paramilitary group, which had ties to Russia." }, { "id": 25135, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market", "url_title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market", "slug": "on-june-28th-2024-will-nvidias-market", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.751615Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.918235Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:00.937021Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25135, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.751615Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:27.144345Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25135, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 25125, "title": "Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?", "short_title": "Guardian Council Approve Ahmadinejad 2024", "url_title": "Guardian Council Approve Ahmadinejad 2024", "slug": "guardian-council-approve-ahmadinejad-2024", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T02:34:00.930791Z", "published_at": 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"quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25125, "title": "Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T02:34:00.930791Z", "open_time": "2024-06-07T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-07T23:20:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-07T23:20:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-11T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-09T13:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-09T13:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-09T13:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 presidential election in Iran is set for June 28, following the [sudden death](https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48) of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. In the wake of Raisi's death, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [appointed](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/irans-khamenei-confirms-mohammad-mokhber-as-interim-president) First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as interim head of government and mandated a snap election within 50 days.\n\nIran's [Guardian Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardian_Council), a 12-member body responsible for (among other functions) vetting electoral candidates, plays a crucial role in Iran’s political landscape. Comprising six members appointed by the Supreme Leader and six nominated by the head of the judiciary (also appointed by the Supreme Leader), the Council has a history of disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates.\n\n[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad), who served as Iran's president from 2005 to 2013, has registered as a candidate in the snap election. His tenure was marked by controversy with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and he was subsequently disqualified by the Guardian Council from running in the 2017 and 2021 elections. \n\nThe Guardian Council has [indicated](https://iranwire.com/en/politics/130202-irans-guardian-council-aims-to-speed-up-vetting-of-presidential-candidates/) that it will announce its list of approved candidates on June 11.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is included in Iran's Guardian Council's list of qualified presidential candidates for the upcoming presidential election.", "fine_print": "* If the Guardian Council does not publish its list of approved candidates before June 27, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 25125, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717950421.11679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717950421.11679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018431213382361245 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.254955311348311, 2.8153736852430775, 0.718332128659227, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.2188564438547366, 0.0, 0.3643458643011109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.12499472235242584, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.507803423954753, "coverage": 0.5358683851506665, "baseline_score": 41.868627302327425, "spot_peer_score": 18.032173489051896, "peer_archived_score": 8.507803423954753, "baseline_archived_score": 41.868627302327425, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.032173489051896 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717940050.93066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717940050.93066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9927681241053489, 0.0072318758946511045 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2024 presidential election in Iran is set for June 28, following the [sudden death](https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48) of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. In the wake of Raisi's death, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [appointed](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/irans-khamenei-confirms-mohammad-mokhber-as-interim-president) First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as interim head of government and mandated a snap election within 50 days.\n\nIran's [Guardian Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardian_Council), a 12-member body responsible for (among other functions) vetting electoral candidates, plays a crucial role in Iran’s political landscape. Comprising six members appointed by the Supreme Leader and six nominated by the head of the judiciary (also appointed by the Supreme Leader), the Council has a history of disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates.\n\n[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad), who served as Iran's president from 2005 to 2013, has registered as a candidate in the snap election. His tenure was marked by controversy with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and he was subsequently disqualified by the Guardian Council from running in the 2017 and 2021 elections. \n\nThe Guardian Council has [indicated](https://iranwire.com/en/politics/130202-irans-guardian-council-aims-to-speed-up-vetting-of-presidential-candidates/) that it will announce its list of approved candidates on June 11." }, { "id": 25107, "title": "Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?", "short_title": "Will UCLA hold its in-person, university", "url_title": "Will UCLA hold its in-person, university", "slug": "will-ucla-hold-its-in-person-university", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-05T13:41:11.133930Z", "published_at": "2024-06-05T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.208090Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-05T13:41:11.536778Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-05T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25107, "title": "Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-05T13:41:11.133930Z", "open_time": "2024-06-05T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:34.600621Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 6, 2024, Columbia University [cancelled](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/05/06/columbia-commencement-ceremony-protest-live-updates/73583447007/) its main commencement ceremony, opting instead to honor its graduates in 19 smaller ceremonies for each of its colleges. The decision was made in response to pro-Palestinian protests that erupted at the university. \r\n\r\nUCLA has [cancelled in-person classes](https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/ucla-cancel-in-person-classes-again-after-more-israel-hamas-war-protests/) at its campus, and there has been speculation that it may cancel its main commencement as well. Its fellow southern California school, USC, recently [moved its ceremony](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-03/usc-shores-up-campus-limits-access-before-commencement) to the LA Coliseum.\r\n\r\nSee Also: \r\n\r\nMSN: [Pro-Palestinian Protests Put College Commencements in Jeopardy](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pro-palestinian-protests-put-college-commencements-in-jeopardy/ar-BB1lUU4h)\r\n\r\nNewsweek: [Full List of Colleges Cancelling Graduation Services Amid Campus Protests](https://www.newsweek.com/columbia-cancels-graduation-ceremony-universities-palestine-protests-1897560)\r\n\r\nUSA Today: [College graduation canceled due to anti-war protests? It's happened before](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2024/05/07/why-do-colleges-cancel-graduation-a-brief-history/73586349007/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) holds all three of its main in-person college commencement ceremonies for the graduating Class of 2024 [scheduled](https://commencement.ucla.edu/schedule/ucla-commencement-schedule-alphabetical#college) for the following times and locations on June 14, 2024:\r\n\r\n- 11 AM at the Pauley Pavilion\r\n- 3 PM at the Pauley Pavilion\r\n- 7 PM at the Pauley Pavilion\r\n\r\nThe ceremonies must all occur at the specified locations and begin within 1 hour of the scheduled starting time. \r\n\r\nThis question will resolve as **No** if any ceremony either does not begin within an hour of the scheduled time, is moved to another location, or is held entirely online (i.e., without graduates, faculty, and guests attending in person).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25107, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717888081.240938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717888081.240938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.65 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717888081.240938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717888081.240938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3767864302478975, 0.6232135697521025 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 6, 2024, Columbia University [cancelled](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/05/06/columbia-commencement-ceremony-protest-live-updates/73583447007/) its main commencement ceremony, opting instead to honor its graduates in 19 smaller ceremonies for each of its colleges. The decision was made in response to pro-Palestinian protests that erupted at the university. \r\n\r\nUCLA has [cancelled in-person classes](https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/ucla-cancel-in-person-classes-again-after-more-israel-hamas-war-protests/) at its campus, and there has been speculation that it may cancel its main commencement as well. Its fellow southern California school, USC, recently [moved its ceremony](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-03/usc-shores-up-campus-limits-access-before-commencement) to the LA Coliseum.\r\n\r\nSee Also: \r\n\r\nMSN: [Pro-Palestinian Protests Put College Commencements in Jeopardy](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pro-palestinian-protests-put-college-commencements-in-jeopardy/ar-BB1lUU4h)\r\n\r\nNewsweek: [Full List of Colleges Cancelling Graduation Services Amid Campus Protests](https://www.newsweek.com/columbia-cancels-graduation-ceremony-universities-palestine-protests-1897560)\r\n\r\nUSA Today: [College graduation canceled due to anti-war protests? It's happened before](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2024/05/07/why-do-colleges-cancel-graduation-a-brief-history/73586349007/)" }, { "id": 24819, "title": "Will the USMCA be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review?", "short_title": "USMCA Extended at Joint Review?", "url_title": "USMCA Extended at Joint Review?", "slug": "usmca-extended-at-joint-review", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-01T00:58:09.360555Z", "published_at": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T08:04:22.468439Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-08-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24819, "title": "Will the USMCA be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review?", "created_at": "2024-06-01T00:58:09.360555Z", "open_time": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-05T11:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-05T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-08-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-01T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10997) (USMCA) is a trade deal between the United States, Mexico, and Canada that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Signed on November 30, 2018, and implemented on July 1, 2020, the USMCA aimed to modernize trade relations and address issues that had emerged since NAFTA's implementation in 1994.\r\n\r\nThe USMCA [will undergo a review period](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf) on its sixth anniversary, where it will be extended for another 16 years if all parties agree to extend it. If the parties do not agree to extend the USMCA, it will trigger an annual review process held each year until the deal expires in 2036 unless an extension is agreed to at one of the annual reviews. The Trump administration [pushed for the review process](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/usmca-review-upcoming-elections-and-a-path-forward/) and some observers expect that if Trump is president during the review he will push for significant changes. [Biden has also taken a protective stance on trade](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/will-the-usmca-accord-survive-an-upcoming-review/) and may push for changes more favorable to key US industries. It is possible that a contentious review process could lead to one or more parties withholding consent for an extension.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, following the joint review of the USMCA held in July 2026, the USMCA is extended for another 16-year period. The question will resolve as **No** if the joint review ends without extension, triggering the annual review process described in paragraph 4 of [Article 34.7 of the USMCA](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf).", "fine_print": "* If the joint review process has not ended, or has not started, before September 1, 2026, the question will also resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 24819, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758355451.746961, "end_time": 1786149397.278, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758355451.746961, "end_time": 1786149397.278, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2883555882372523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.954362327571261, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288596.106613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288596.106613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5796154138426524, 0.42038458615734764 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10997) (USMCA) is a trade deal between the United States, Mexico, and Canada that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Signed on November 30, 2018, and implemented on July 1, 2020, the USMCA aimed to modernize trade relations and address issues that had emerged since NAFTA's implementation in 1994.\r\n\r\nThe USMCA [will undergo a review period](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf) on its sixth anniversary, where it will be extended for another 16 years if all parties agree to extend it. If the parties do not agree to extend the USMCA, it will trigger an annual review process held each year until the deal expires in 2036 unless an extension is agreed to at one of the annual reviews. The Trump administration [pushed for the review process](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/usmca-review-upcoming-elections-and-a-path-forward/) and some observers expect that if Trump is president during the review he will push for significant changes. [Biden has also taken a protective stance on trade](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/will-the-usmca-accord-survive-an-upcoming-review/) and may push for changes more favorable to key US industries. It is possible that a contentious review process could lead to one or more parties withholding consent for an extension." }, { "id": 24814, "title": "Will \"stagflation\" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the \"misery index\" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?", "short_title": "Misery Index Exceed 10 Before 2026?", "url_title": "Misery Index Exceed 10 Before 2026?", "slug": "misery-index-exceed-10-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-31T22:36:07.845478Z", "published_at": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T02:29:14.407357Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2018, "type": "question_series", "name": "Economic Indicators", "slug": "economic-indicators", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/economic_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2040-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T19:08:29.750470Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2018, "type": "question_series", "name": "Economic Indicators", "slug": "economic-indicators", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/economic_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2040-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T19:08:29.750470Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 24814, "title": "Will \"stagflation\" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the \"misery index\" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?", "created_at": "2024-05-31T22:36:07.845478Z", "open_time": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-04T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-04T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At a recent Goldman Sachs investment event, CEO of JPMorgan Chase [Jamie Dimon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Dimon) was [reported to have said the following](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tell-won-t-lead-stagflation-193751412.html) about the potential for stagflation:\n\n>I'm not saying it's going to happen, I just give the odds much higher than other people. . . I look at the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that has taken place over the last five years—it has been so extraordinary, how can you tell me it won't lead to stagflation? . . . It might not, but I, for one, am quite prepared for it.\n\n[\"Stagflation\"](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp) is typically characterized by high unemployment and high inflation occurring simultaneously. One measure of these combined metrics has been dubbed the \"misery index\". As described by [The Fred Blog](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2015/07/measuring-misery/):\n\n>The mandate of the Federal Reserve calls for stable prices and maximum employment. One way to assess these conditions is to look at the consumer price index inflation rate and the unemployment rate, respectively. It has even become somewhat popular to look at the sum of these two measures, the so-called “misery index”. . .\n\nThe misery index is the sum of the consumer price index and unemployment rate in the United States. It peaked above a value of 20 in the early 1980s, at the tail end of the period most associated with the term \"stagflation\" in the US. In April of 2024 the latest value was 7.25.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1olYd&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the \"[misery index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dD3)\" has been 10 or more for at least three consecutive months in the United States.", "fine_print": "* Specifically, if in the period from June 2024 to December 2025 the resolution source, which is the Federal Reserve Economic Data's *Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average+Unemployment Rate* (linked from the main Resolution Criteria), shows three consecutive months as having a value of 10 or above then this question will resolve as **Yes**. \n* This question will resolve when the value for December 2025 is first available.\n* Whether figures are preliminary or final is immaterial, it will resolve as **Yes** if the resolution criteria have been met at any time, so long as Metaculus has no reason to believe the values shown are in error.", "post_id": 24814, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762655343.901764, "end_time": 1764267323.803, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762655343.901764, "end_time": 1764267323.803, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08379873985310607 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.876931883579203, 0.3518479272958788, 0.49129737340348384, 0.8141639188572266, 0.0, 0.9599216409960402, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.9574955587185582, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.085540119101621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288609.333758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288609.333758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9557573289204843, 0.04424267107951575 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At a recent Goldman Sachs investment event, CEO of JPMorgan Chase [Jamie Dimon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Dimon) was [reported to have said the following](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tell-won-t-lead-stagflation-193751412.html) about the potential for stagflation:\n\n>I'm not saying it's going to happen, I just give the odds much higher than other people. . . I look at the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that has taken place over the last five years—it has been so extraordinary, how can you tell me it won't lead to stagflation? . . . It might not, but I, for one, am quite prepared for it.\n\n[\"Stagflation\"](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp) is typically characterized by high unemployment and high inflation occurring simultaneously. One measure of these combined metrics has been dubbed the \"misery index\". As described by [The Fred Blog](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2015/07/measuring-misery/):\n\n>The mandate of the Federal Reserve calls for stable prices and maximum employment. One way to assess these conditions is to look at the consumer price index inflation rate and the unemployment rate, respectively. It has even become somewhat popular to look at the sum of these two measures, the so-called “misery index”. . .\n\nThe misery index is the sum of the consumer price index and unemployment rate in the United States. It peaked above a value of 20 in the early 1980s, at the tail end of the period most associated with the term \"stagflation\" in the US. In April of 2024 the latest value was 7.25.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1olYd&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 24813, "title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?", "short_title": "Hungarian MEP Election: Will Fidesz-KDNP Win?", "url_title": "Hungarian MEP Election: Will Fidesz-KDNP Win?", "slug": "hungarian-mep-election-will-fidesz-kdnp-win", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-31T20:36:56.545942Z", "published_at": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.585000Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-10T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-10T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-11T22:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-11T22:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24813, "title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-31T20:36:56.545942Z", "open_time": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-03T07:17:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-03T07:17:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-11T22:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-11T22:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-11T22:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-10T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-10T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Fidesz-KDNP alliance has long been a dominant political force in Hungary, championed by Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP). Since 2005, they have secured a significant majority of Hungary's seats in the European Parliament, capitalizing on shared conservative and nationalistic ideologies. \n\nHowever, the alliance faces [new challenges](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-eu-election-magyar-fidesz-russia-f53cd35e52a9f91c34b00d8dd6f85694) as Péter Magyar, a former insider of the Fidesz party, breaks ranks and forms his own party, Tisztelet és Szabadság (Respect and Freedom). Magyar's emergence comes at a time when Fidesz is grappling with scandals and a loss of public trust, highlighted by significant resignations within its ranks.\n\nThe 2024 European Parliament elections are critical for the alliance as they face increasing internal and EU-wide challenges, including economic pressures and debates over the EU's influence on national policies. These elections will test the alliance's ability to maintain its influence amid growing political diversity and opposition within Hungary.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if, following the 2024 European Parliament elections, the Fidesz-KDNP alliance secures more seats than any other single party or coalition, thereby maintaining the highest number of Hungarian seats in the European Parliament, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "- This question will resolve based on the official results as published by the National Election Office of Hungary or reported by other credible sources.\n- The resolution will consider the total number of seats won by the Fidesz-KDNP alliance versus other parties or coalitions.\n- The election date is set for June 9, 2024. If the elections are postponed, the timeline for this question will be adjusted to reflect the new election date.\n- Only the official announcement of the number of seats won is required for this question to resolve; the actual taking of seats or inauguration of MEPs is not necessary.", "post_id": 24813, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717975048.129167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717975048.129167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.9557602640545314 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773927070098371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015538817933844495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3801713464000618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7540557966122892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9512321483238524, 0.7800991750591255, 1.7187220385267068, 0.8398068337918239, 0.6178054680864423, 1.9596233434872878, 2.7351100276464377 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.878882378114688, "coverage": 0.9987563291146724, "baseline_score": 89.80852542799308, "spot_peer_score": 1.2452260597434237, "peer_archived_score": 5.878882378114688, "baseline_archived_score": 89.80852542799308, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2452260597434237 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717975048.170057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717975048.170057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.062328261009693464, 0.9376717389903065 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Fidesz-KDNP alliance has long been a dominant political force in Hungary, championed by Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP). Since 2005, they have secured a significant majority of Hungary's seats in the European Parliament, capitalizing on shared conservative and nationalistic ideologies. \n\nHowever, the alliance faces [new challenges](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-eu-election-magyar-fidesz-russia-f53cd35e52a9f91c34b00d8dd6f85694) as Péter Magyar, a former insider of the Fidesz party, breaks ranks and forms his own party, Tisztelet és Szabadság (Respect and Freedom). Magyar's emergence comes at a time when Fidesz is grappling with scandals and a loss of public trust, highlighted by significant resignations within its ranks.\n\nThe 2024 European Parliament elections are critical for the alliance as they face increasing internal and EU-wide challenges, including economic pressures and debates over the EU's influence on national policies. These elections will test the alliance's ability to maintain its influence amid growing political diversity and opposition within Hungary." }, { "id": 24812, "title": "Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?", "short_title": "Flying taxis in 5 cities before 2029", "url_title": "Flying taxis in 5 cities before 2029", "slug": "flying-taxis-in-5-cities-before-2029", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-31T18:39:05.058518Z", "published_at": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T23:29:35.837116Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-03-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24812, "title": "Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?", "created_at": "2024-05-31T18:39:05.058518Z", "open_time": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-03-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Flying cars and flying taxis has long been a staple of science fiction but has been slow to take off. In recent years, startups and companies have shown increasing interest, prototypes and plans to start actual flying taxi services.\n\nFor instance, Archer Aviation plans to launch commercial programs [in 2026 in South Korea, India and the United Arab Emirates](https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/30/archer-kakao-mobility-partner-to-bring-evtol-to-south-korea-in-2026/). Trials will also be available in Paris [at the 2024 Olympics](https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/02/28/would-you-order-a-flying-taxi-they-will-take-off-for-the-first-time-in-paris-this-summer).\n\nHowever, there have been many previous plans for such services that have failed to materialise which might make one wonder whether this will actually pan out in the short term.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, before January 1, 2029, there is verifiable evidence on credible sources that customers can order flying taxi services in at least 5 distinct cities across at least 2 continents. Otherwise this question resolves negatively.\n\nEach city must have flying taxi services that are accessible to the general public through a standard commercial platform. It shall be possible to order a ride through a publicly accessible service, such as a mobile app, website, or a dedicated service hotline.\n\nThe service must be available to any individual who meets the standard customer requirements (e.g., age, payment method) and must not be restricted to participants in a pilot or test program.\n\nThe service must be operational for at least three consecutive months of regular operation, not interrupted by regulatory or technical issues. Services that begin operation in late 2028 will still qualify if they complete this three-month operational requirement before March 1, 2029.", "fine_print": "For the resolution of this question, a flying taxi will be considered as an electric vehicle capable of vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL), designed to carry passengers within urban and suburban environments. These vehicles must be operated by a company offering ride-hailing services similar to traditional taxis or ride-sharing services.\n\nRegular customers will be individuals who are not part of any beta testing or pilot programs but can access the service through a standard commercial platform (e.g., a mobile app) without special memberships or invitations.\n\nTo count for resolution, the considered cities must have at a minimum a population of 50,000 people or a density of 500 per km². \n\nCities that are located within a 100km distance from other cities where such a service is available will be considered part of the same metropolitan area and will only count as one city.", "post_id": 24812, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763076565.276612, "end_time": 1763492147.95956, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763076565.276612, "end_time": 1763492147.95956, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.14991227656279074 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.181691873344011, 1.3348427369605338, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3391411601993389, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287816.377757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287816.377757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9821966265452595, 0.01780337345474051 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Flying cars and flying taxis has long been a staple of science fiction but has been slow to take off. In recent years, startups and companies have shown increasing interest, prototypes and plans to start actual flying taxi services.\n\nFor instance, Archer Aviation plans to launch commercial programs [in 2026 in South Korea, India and the United Arab Emirates](https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/30/archer-kakao-mobility-partner-to-bring-evtol-to-south-korea-in-2026/). Trials will also be available in Paris [at the 2024 Olympics](https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/02/28/would-you-order-a-flying-taxi-they-will-take-off-for-the-first-time-in-paris-this-summer).\n\nHowever, there have been many previous plans for such services that have failed to materialise which might make one wonder whether this will actually pan out in the short term." }, { "id": 24811, "title": "Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?", "short_title": "South Africa Elects President by July 2024?", "url_title": "South Africa Elects President by July 2024?", "slug": "south-africa-elects-president-by-july-2024", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-31T17:17:34.077352Z", "published_at": "2024-06-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.944116Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-01T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 24811, "title": "Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-31T17:17:34.077352Z", "open_time": "2024-06-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-04T13:26:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-04T13:26:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "South Africa's 2024 national election, held on May 29, is highly contested, with the long-ruling African National Congress (ANC) potentially losing its majority in Parliament for the first time in 30 years. The president of South Africa is elected by Parliament, specifically the National Assembly, requiring a simple majority of 201 out of 400 lawmakers. Due to the [ANC's declining support](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320), coalition talks are anticipated, which could delay the election of the president.\n\nThe results of the national election held on May 29, 2024, are expected to be announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) by the Sunday following the election, and the new Parliament [must hold its first session within 14 days of the announcement of the election results](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the South African National Assembly officially elects a president before July 1, 2024, according to reports from credible sources.", "fine_print": "* The president need not be inaugurated before the date of resolution, only the announcement that a vote has been held successfully selecting a new president-elect is required.\n* The appointment of an acting president does not qualify, only a president officially elected by Parliament counts.", "post_id": 24811, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718390201.251386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718390201.251386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8881368605338478 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08440963331553128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01414047269109762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.3865228806448546, 0.10565998016134397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.03365548811464179, 0.0, 0.13294920078905473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22612079235387852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35628573046604867, 0.7965517069063007, 0.31967846996806076, 0.34946576266536805, 0.0, 1.3554377386405487, 0.0, 0.5805438574528169, 0.4925280170881631, 0.2425126729529749, 2.0160129692836994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2920067509037526, 0.0, 0.5350252150826518, 0.9277858371259815, 2.634002188580777 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.758811718819548, "coverage": 0.45139607008193133, "baseline_score": 28.955190522779045, "spot_peer_score": 38.96269008097681, "peer_archived_score": 15.758811718819548, "baseline_archived_score": 28.955190522779045, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.96269008097681 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718390201.302274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718390201.302274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10881843427647964, 0.8911815657235204 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 155, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "South Africa's 2024 national election, held on May 29, is highly contested, with the long-ruling African National Congress (ANC) potentially losing its majority in Parliament for the first time in 30 years. The president of South Africa is elected by Parliament, specifically the National Assembly, requiring a simple majority of 201 out of 400 lawmakers. Due to the [ANC's declining support](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320), coalition talks are anticipated, which could delay the election of the president.\n\nThe results of the national election held on May 29, 2024, are expected to be announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) by the Sunday following the election, and the new Parliament [must hold its first session within 14 days of the announcement of the election results](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320)." }, { "id": 24806, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "Nvidia Apple Market Cap June 2024?", "url_title": "Nvidia Apple Market Cap June 2024?", "slug": "nvidia-apple-market-cap-june-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": 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"2024-06-04T05:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-04T05:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T20:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T20:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-28T20:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "* If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 24806, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719517643.756885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719517643.756885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.07923265086587854 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 7.6834050687199005, 1.6747485594683198, 1.6497014576656364, 2.0930983784841657, 2.333881594134328, 1.4334082190707957, 0.0, 0.6692069484145166, 1.1162486645489103, 1.5360977342825202, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3721929538260713e-05, 0.03240099381406586, 0.5717776304065728, 0.0, 0.14583122109026928, 0.4745011268190125, 0.03420128217299712, 0.13667363591198622, 0.09503780685197431, 0.0, 0.24616454042879166, 0.0, 0.49108062499768873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06407058269499505, 0.0, 0.02601425451356019, 0.18371607338692422, 0.0, 1.32052368194679e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03609028412840382, 0.3569496291228602, 0.06795719839203156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07890232746364546, 0.041524429877870056, 0.003047431908445808, 0.0020946476157415643, 0.0, 0.12180770084964763, 0.0, 0.0007678738734194133, 0.0, 0.005337957693432018, 0.0, 0.00271814621060401, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05033215965453307, 0.014655188132163256, 3.7184412701723654e-05, 0.00013537616405991175, 0.0, 0.06545347368965798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04232921962320497, 0.00208158623424748, 0.0, 0.012241794668064599, 0.0, 0.0006377220559365605, 0.026090970827232444, 0.006101160955103397, 0.0015266238165126385, 0.0, 0.00034960910137161777, 0.02059162497459626, 0.0010937329097037772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015547906705395435, 0.010833931807864537, 0.0004306860501962008, 0.01648825622613728, 0.0, 0.014656506175948858, 0.009361425933368967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021985991589912372, 0.039544123316616456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020512047411653897 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 25.390889431383805, "coverage": 0.999951698344821, "baseline_score": -27.821441549270677, "spot_peer_score": 21.428009284615907, "peer_archived_score": 25.390889431383805, "baseline_archived_score": -27.821441549270677, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.428009284615907 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719517643.795151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719517643.795151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9809645976534115, 0.019035402346588483 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 24803, "title": "Will Dwayne Johnson, The Rock, make a serious run for President of the United States or VP before 2053?", "short_title": "Will The Rock run for President by 2052?", "url_title": "Will The Rock run for President by 2052?", "slug": "will-the-rock-run-for-president-by-2052", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-31T04:52:23.001359Z", "published_at": "2024-06-05T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.227814Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-05T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2052-11-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2052-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-05T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 24803, "title": "Will Dwayne Johnson, The Rock, make a serious run for President of the United States or VP before 2053?", "created_at": "2024-05-31T04:52:23.001359Z", "open_time": "2024-06-05T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-08T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2052-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2052-11-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2052-11-01T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Finally, The Rock has come to Metaculus!\n\nDwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson was propelled to fame during his tenure as a main-event wrestler for the World Wrestling Federation, now called the WWE. His charisma when \"cutting promos\" and his in-ring ability resulted in a successful career as a wrestler where he main-evented many pay-per-views (now called \"premium live events\" or \"PLEs\") and held numerous championship reigns. He has become a popular culture icon, and pursued a career as a Hollywood actor and social media influencer. He was joined the board of directors of TKO Group Holdings, which owns the \"WWE\" brand, in 2024.\n\n(In 2024, TKO Group Holdings gave ownership of the trademark of \"The Rock\" to Dwayne Johnson.)\n\nThe author posed this question in levity as a homage to Idiocracy, where a professional wrestler, Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho, was President, and The Simpsons where Lisa Simpson succeed Donald Trump as President. Nevertheless, Dwayne Johnson running for President seems to be realistic possibility that has a more than 0.1 percent chance of occurring.\n\nQuestion author chose 0.5 percent as the cut off for criterion 2 since that is the proportion of votes Evan McMullin received during his 2016 candidacy. Also, Dwayne Johnson would be 80 years in the latter half of 2052, since he was born on May 2, 1972.\n\nSee Also\n\nThe Guardian: [Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson: I was asked to run for US president by multiple political parties](https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/nov/10/dwayne-the-rock-johnsonus-president-run-party)\n\nNBC News: [Dwayne Johnson Hasn't Dismissed a Presidential Run, with One Caveat](https://www.nbc.com/nbc-insider/is-dwayne-johnson-running-for-president)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if at least one of these events happens:\n\n1. Dwayne Johnson is a candidate vying for the nomination of a political party that received at least 20% of the popular vote in the most recent Presidential election. Johnson meets at least one of the following conditions: \n\n- He appears in at least one nationally televised debate for the candidates for his party's nomination, with at least 2.5 million viewers watching the debate live.\n\n- He wins 1 or more pledged delegate to the party's convention.\n\n2. Dwayne Johnson, as a Presidential candidate, receives more than 0.5 percent of the popular vote in the Presidential election (to cover a scenario where he is a serious third-party candidate).\n\n3. Dwayne Johnson is a Vice Presidential candidate for a Presidential candidate who receive at least the second most number of popular votes or electoral votes in the General Election.\n\nIf none of these three events has occurred before Wednesday November 6, 2052 (i.e., the day after election day 2052), this question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "Filing with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as a candidate is not enough to resolve this question positively unless at least one of the three criteria listed above is met. \n\nThe question will resolve negatively if Dwayne Johnson is deceased before a positive resolution of the question. \n\nQuestion is annulled if there is a period where there is no Presidential election for 8 consecutive years.", "post_id": 24803, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751675157.626199, "end_time": 1807250094.52191, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751675157.626199, "end_time": 1807250094.52191, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.975, 0.025 ], "means": [ 0.11806797141038522 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.443003174551545, 2.2006295960132825, 0.9333240859091247, 0.11975643595044741, 0.0, 1.1599153504623563, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287392.466655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287392.466655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9936573071996334, 0.006342692800366587 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Finally, The Rock has come to Metaculus!\n\nDwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson was propelled to fame during his tenure as a main-event wrestler for the World Wrestling Federation, now called the WWE. His charisma when \"cutting promos\" and his in-ring ability resulted in a successful career as a wrestler where he main-evented many pay-per-views (now called \"premium live events\" or \"PLEs\") and held numerous championship reigns. He has become a popular culture icon, and pursued a career as a Hollywood actor and social media influencer. He was joined the board of directors of TKO Group Holdings, which owns the \"WWE\" brand, in 2024.\n\n(In 2024, TKO Group Holdings gave ownership of the trademark of \"The Rock\" to Dwayne Johnson.)\n\nThe author posed this question in levity as a homage to Idiocracy, where a professional wrestler, Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho, was President, and The Simpsons where Lisa Simpson succeed Donald Trump as President. Nevertheless, Dwayne Johnson running for President seems to be realistic possibility that has a more than 0.1 percent chance of occurring.\n\nQuestion author chose 0.5 percent as the cut off for criterion 2 since that is the proportion of votes Evan McMullin received during his 2016 candidacy. Also, Dwayne Johnson would be 80 years in the latter half of 2052, since he was born on May 2, 1972.\n\nSee Also\n\nThe Guardian: [Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson: I was asked to run for US president by multiple political parties](https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/nov/10/dwayne-the-rock-johnsonus-president-run-party)\n\nNBC News: [Dwayne Johnson Hasn't Dismissed a Presidential Run, with One Caveat](https://www.nbc.com/nbc-insider/is-dwayne-johnson-running-for-president)" }, { "id": 24802, "title": "Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the \"hush money\" case?", "short_title": "Trump Appeal Hush Money Verdict", "url_title": "Trump Appeal Hush Money Verdict", "slug": "trump-appeal-hush-money-verdict", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-30T22:10:19.791458Z", "published_at": "2024-05-31T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.523089Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Polio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio), an infectious disease that once paralyzed hundreds of thousands of people every year, has seen a dramatic reduction in cases due to global vaccination efforts. Since the 1980s, the number of polio cases has [decreased by over 99%](https://ourworldindata.org/global-fight-polio). Two out of the three [serotypes](https://www.who.int/teams/health-product-policy-and-standards/standards-and-specifications/vaccine-standardization/poliomyelitis) of the wild poliovirus have been eradicated, with only serotype 1 remaining in just two countries: Afghanistan and Pakistan.\n\nAccording to the WHO's [May 28th, 2024 Weekly Polio Analysis](https://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/weekly-polio-analyses-WPV-20240521.pdf), the most recent confirmed case was reported on April 5th, 2024, in Afghanistan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, in the month of June 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) detects a new confirmed case of poliovirus, according to WHO's [Weekly Polio Analysis](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/wild-poliovirus-list/) dated July 2nd, 2024, which is expected to be released within a few days following that date.\n\n*This question is part of the Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup. However, if the Weekly Polio Analysis report nominally dated July 2, 2024 is not published before the tournament ends on July 8, 2024, this question will not be scored in the Quarterly Cup. It will still count as part of the 2024 leaderboard.*", "fine_print": "* Only the \"confirmed cases\" portion of resolution source table will be considered. The \"reported from other sources\" portion of the table will not be considered.\n* The resolution criteria will rely on the ‘Date of most recent case’ column in the weekly report’s table, not the report’s nominal publication date or the date it is uploaded to the WHO website.", "post_id": 24801, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717429498.795713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717429498.795713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.37225176933406273 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.275324996707677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4995825838808072, 0.5850006390553214, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42011558585976005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.15769724562820026, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1324529992949671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1813837834937049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717429498.824259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717429498.824259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7445141741474515, 0.2554858258525486 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Polio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio), an infectious disease that once paralyzed hundreds of thousands of people every year, has seen a dramatic reduction in cases due to global vaccination efforts. Since the 1980s, the number of polio cases has [decreased by over 99%](https://ourworldindata.org/global-fight-polio). Two out of the three [serotypes](https://www.who.int/teams/health-product-policy-and-standards/standards-and-specifications/vaccine-standardization/poliomyelitis) of the wild poliovirus have been eradicated, with only serotype 1 remaining in just two countries: Afghanistan and Pakistan.\n\nAccording to the WHO's [May 28th, 2024 Weekly Polio Analysis](https://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/weekly-polio-analyses-WPV-20240521.pdf), the most recent confirmed case was reported on April 5th, 2024, in Afghanistan." } ] }
