Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3000
{ "count": 5975, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3020", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2980", "results": [ { "id": 19493, "title": "Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?", "short_title": "Will Labor win Sturt at the next election?", "url_title": "Will Labor win Sturt at the next election?", "slug": "will-labor-win-sturt-at-the-next-election", "author_id": 112352, "author_username": "joel.d", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113018, "username": "Grigfall" }, { "id": 111805, "username": "galen" } ], "created_at": "2023-10-19T22:15:18.361847Z", "published_at": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.320022Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19493, "title": "Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?", "created_at": "2023-10-19T22:15:18.361847Z", "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-02T20:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-02T20:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-07T11:04:29.328180Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The next Australian Federal Election is expected [between August 2024 and May 2025](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2223/Quick_Guides/WhenIsTheNextElection2022). A typical election is for every seat in the lower house — the House of Representatives — and half the seats in the upper house — the Senate. This question concerns the seat of Sturt, a lower house seat in South Australia.\n\nSturt is one of the most marginal seats currently held by the Liberal Party, with a margin of just 0.5%. The incumbent, James Stevens, is in his second term, having succeeded Christopher Pyne at the 2019 election. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since 1972. The ABC provides an overview [here](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/stur) from the last election. Although Labor has never won the seat, the very small margin suggests that this is nonetheless a possibility.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Australian Electoral Commission](https://www.aec.gov.au/) declares the result of this seat for the ALP candidate in the next Australian Federal Election. The question will resolve in the negative if any other party wins the seat, or other factors mean that nobody wins the seat.", "fine_print": "For this question to resolve as positive the successful candidate must be the ALP candidate when the election result is announced. If they leave or are disendorsed then that would not meet the criteria of this question.", "post_id": 19493, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746265191.270229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746265191.270229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2460228305389018 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 1.032446907522022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.16200818773240888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -95.06729664186363, "peer_score": 1.1922231062706177, "coverage": 0.9722523603344086, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998896996590215, "spot_peer_score": -5.666434265350158, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -95.06729664186363, "peer_archived_score": 1.1922231062706177, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.666434265350158, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287889.505216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287889.505216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8942326440122146, 0.10576735598778546 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The next Australian Federal Election is expected [between August 2024 and May 2025](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2223/Quick_Guides/WhenIsTheNextElection2022). A typical election is for every seat in the lower house — the House of Representatives — and half the seats in the upper house — the Senate. This question concerns the seat of Sturt, a lower house seat in South Australia.\n\nSturt is one of the most marginal seats currently held by the Liberal Party, with a margin of just 0.5%. The incumbent, James Stevens, is in his second term, having succeeded Christopher Pyne at the 2019 election. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since 1972. The ABC provides an overview [here](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/stur) from the last election. Although Labor has never won the seat, the very small margin suggests that this is nonetheless a possibility." }, { "id": 19492, "title": "Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Israel Offensive in Gaza by November 1, 2023?", "url_title": "Israel Offensive in Gaza by November 1, 2023?", "slug": "israel-offensive-in-gaza-by-november-1-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-19T15:16:56.843088Z", "published_at": "2023-10-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.191181Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 155, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19492, "title": "Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-10-19T15:16:56.843088Z", "open_time": "2023-10-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-21T17:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-21T17:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched an attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), with [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/middleeast/israel-hamas-gaza-war-explained-week-2-mime-intl/index.html) stating that more than 1,400 Israeli civilians were killed. Following the attack [media reports](https://www.npr.org/2023/10/14/1205951163/israel-is-expected-to-launch-a-ground-invasion-of-gaza) have suggested that an Israeli ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. [On October 13, Politico reported:](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/gaza-ground-invasion-israel-00121452):\n\n>Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza is “imminent,” two Israeli officials said Friday, confirming that the much-anticipated operation will happen in the coming hours or days.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>But officials in Jerusalem and the Israel Defense Forces never confirmed that a ground invasion was in the works, even as Israel called up 300,000 reservists and, Friday, ordered the evacuation of 1.1 million people from northern Gaza.\n>\n>The Israeli officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive military plans, said the evacuation order was issued to save as many Palestinian lives as possible ahead of the ground operation. The short window of time for that evacuation was necessary so that Hamas wouldn’t have much time to prepare, they said.\n\nHowever, on October 17 Israeli Defense Force Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-army-spokesman-says-next-phase-war-may-be-different-expectations-2023-10-17/): \n\n>We are preparing for the next stages of war. We haven't said what they will be. Everybody's talking about the ground offensive. It might be something different.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 1, 2023, at least two of the internationally recognized media sources listed below publish reports that unequivocally state that a large-scale Israeli ground offensive into Gaza has begun. Operations characterized as [raids](https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-launches-first-localized-raids-into-gaza-ahead-of-expected-ground-invasion/) will generally not qualify.\n\n* [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news)\n* [The Economist](https://www.economist.com)\n* [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com)\n* [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com)", "fine_print": "* To meet the threshold for a **Yes** resolution, a report must rely on sourced reporting. Sourced reporting can include government sources quoted on condition of anonymity, but the report must not be an opinion piece. For example:\n - The hypothetical statement \"A high-level official in the US intelligence community stated, on the condition of anonymity, that Israel's ground offensive began on October 25th\" would be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n - The hypothetical statements \"Israel's much-anticipated ground offensive may begin at any moment\" or \"It appears Israel's ground offensive may have begun\" would not be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n* It is possible the actual start date of the ground offensive is before November 1, 2023, and that there is evidence available attesting to such a start date, but that the question resolves **No** because the evidence has not been reported definitively in one of the four listed outlets.\n* A raid, which does not qualify, will generally be considered a brief incursion with a specific goal after which troops will withdraw. Metaculus will defer to the characterization of the listed sources. In the event at least two sources state that a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza has begun but also use terminology such as \"raid\", the question will still resolve as **Yes**. For example, the [2006 Israeli operation in Beit Hanoun](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Israeli_operation_in_Beit_Hanoun) would be considered a raid.\n* If there is ambiguity about whether the criteria have been met, a team of three Metaculus admins will make the final determination.", "post_id": 19492, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698774958.707803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698774958.707803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8203188136558203 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7846671929597855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001344694239029621, 0.0, 0.009570109412940194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030694404722327293, 0.0, 0.0005260621864204161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07603521064965144, 0.0, 0.002629644249808833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0041957068417045815, 0.1098319145094257, 0.0, 0.00038847601894433114, 0.0, 0.05863245561015618, 0.0, 7.584392250925236e-05, 0.0012951734680056344, 0.0003138689720159566, 0.0, 0.0011909179798871234, 0.0015822086484779182, 0.0009071537418261927, 0.0, 0.11495769727945206, 5.431644534959455e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061680577743460134, 0.00019824537733839802, 0.00034960910137161777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.514211149405208, 0.00010256549113310516, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0038139617163448e-05, 0.00022341713940836214, 0.0, 0.06395243314524944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05467829362113934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4674137998021003, 0.21253055835496998, 0.003779956305503564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8836119658644748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17545046510367227, 0.0, 0.8160819465200871, 0.24665151864939197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9919665120890119, 1.268823759465724, 0.8141892897369233, 0.9336108722483322, 0.0, 0.8618866476213656, 3.3023062568882597, 0.0, 0.04424461830516105, 0.13337258153418796, 0.0, 3.165637198053403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6624143957947257, 0.004988393263637754, 4.051997012986629, 0.7302919668797273, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1359501581276428 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.699763761644014, "coverage": 0.9528254045856157, "baseline_score": 20.135767825716847, "spot_peer_score": 16.525283789205734, "peer_archived_score": 9.699763761644014, "baseline_archived_score": 20.135767825716847, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.525283789205734 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698739611.233497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698739611.233497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30289291940005203, 0.697107080599948 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 661, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched an attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), with [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/middleeast/israel-hamas-gaza-war-explained-week-2-mime-intl/index.html) stating that more than 1,400 Israeli civilians were killed. Following the attack [media reports](https://www.npr.org/2023/10/14/1205951163/israel-is-expected-to-launch-a-ground-invasion-of-gaza) have suggested that an Israeli ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. [On October 13, Politico reported:](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/gaza-ground-invasion-israel-00121452):\n\n>Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza is “imminent,” two Israeli officials said Friday, confirming that the much-anticipated operation will happen in the coming hours or days.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>But officials in Jerusalem and the Israel Defense Forces never confirmed that a ground invasion was in the works, even as Israel called up 300,000 reservists and, Friday, ordered the evacuation of 1.1 million people from northern Gaza.\n>\n>The Israeli officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive military plans, said the evacuation order was issued to save as many Palestinian lives as possible ahead of the ground operation. The short window of time for that evacuation was necessary so that Hamas wouldn’t have much time to prepare, they said.\n\nHowever, on October 17 Israeli Defense Force Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-army-spokesman-says-next-phase-war-may-be-different-expectations-2023-10-17/): \n\n>We are preparing for the next stages of war. We haven't said what they will be. Everybody's talking about the ground offensive. It might be something different." }, { "id": 19467, "title": "Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?", "short_title": "Israel Responsible for Hospital Attack?", "url_title": "Israel Responsible for Hospital Attack?", "slug": "israel-responsible-for-hospital-attack", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-17T20:30:22.016417Z", "published_at": "2023-10-18T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.968616Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-18T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-18T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 196, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": 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"exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19467, "title": "Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-17T20:30:22.016417Z", "open_time": "2023-10-18T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-18T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-18T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On the 17th of October 2023, [multiple](https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/17/at-least-500-killed-in-gaza-city-hospital-blast) [agencies](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-500-victims-israeli-air-strike-hospital-gaza-health-ministry-2023-10-17/) [reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Ahli_Arab_Hospital_explosion) that the Al Ahli Hospital/Gaza City Hospital was rocked by an explosion. The number of fatalities is not clear. Palestinian officials said as many as [471 people were killed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/18/al-ahli-arab-hospital-piecing-together-what-happened-as-israel-insists-militant-rocket-to-blame). \n\nHamas claims that the explosion was caused by an Israeli Defense Force airstrike on the hospital. The IDF disputes this and allege the explosion was [caused by rockets fired by Islamic Jihad](https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1714397390432612795).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2024.\n\n1. The Israeli Government, the Israeli Defense Force, or a high elected official or civil servant of Israel acting in an official capacity says the explosion was caused by Israeli military action;\n\n2. [Three of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council#:~:text=The%20permanent%20members%20of%20the,Kingdom%2C%20and%20the%20United%20States.) publicly attribute the attack to Israel;\n\n3. Two reports have been published by credible sources, each quoting a separate government source from a [Five Eyes country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes) which attributes the attack to Israel. To meet the threshold, a given report must rely on a government source or document; independent investigations will not be sufficient for the purposes of this question. The reports must, together, provide at least two statements or documents that independently attribute the explosion to Israel.\n\nIf there is ambiguity about any of #1-3, a panel of three Metaculus admins will make the final determination by majority decision.\n\nThe question resolves **No** if the above does not occur before January 1, 2024. It also resolves **No** if any group other than Israel claims responsibility for the attack and that claim is validated by credible sources.", "fine_print": "For #3, the reports may include a document obtained by the media, provided that the veracity of such a document is not subsequently disputed by the applicable government within 3 days of publication.\n\nMetaculus holds a high standard for [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) which we will follow in assessing whether the threshold in #3 has been met:\n\n> A \"credible source\" will be taken to be an online or in-print published story from a journalistic source, or information publicly posted on a the website of an organization by that organization making public information pertaining to that organization, or in another source where the preponderance of evidence suggests that the information is correct and that there is no significant controversy surrounding the information or its correctness. It will generally not include unsourced information found in blogs, Facebook or Twitter postings, or websites of individuals.", "post_id": 19467, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034074.086658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034074.086658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.0758040936778653 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.630398422191238, 6.000975718586611, 0.12969160201906255, 0.06700185901769919, 0.010402226013991208, 0.08346407714725151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005977874951244398, 0.47225943916864277, 0.0, 0.00795403567682975, 0.0, 0.012825123747973684, 1.5779368825407571, 0.0, 0.054504964288947945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043690926741860384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012066708068594254, 0.0, 0.0006319183158210099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.412663432614678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7736537129559455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0651819733646289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003644076243760276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.161051273661052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03439465215614028 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.1559722472425475, "coverage": 0.9999977201323851, "baseline_score": 98.54534211804794, "spot_peer_score": 7.271835940190403, "peer_archived_score": 6.1559722472425475, "baseline_archived_score": 98.54534211804794, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.271835940190403 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034074.131121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034074.131121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 615, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On the 17th of October 2023, [multiple](https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/17/at-least-500-killed-in-gaza-city-hospital-blast) [agencies](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-500-victims-israeli-air-strike-hospital-gaza-health-ministry-2023-10-17/) [reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Ahli_Arab_Hospital_explosion) that the Al Ahli Hospital/Gaza City Hospital was rocked by an explosion. The number of fatalities is not clear. Palestinian officials said as many as [471 people were killed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/18/al-ahli-arab-hospital-piecing-together-what-happened-as-israel-insists-militant-rocket-to-blame). \n\nHamas claims that the explosion was caused by an Israeli Defense Force airstrike on the hospital. The IDF disputes this and allege the explosion was [caused by rockets fired by Islamic Jihad](https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1714397390432612795)." }, { "id": 19453, "title": "Will Israel lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030?", "short_title": "Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights", "url_title": "Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights", "slug": "israels-occupation-of-the-golan-heights", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-17T01:51:26.398434Z", "published_at": "2024-04-22T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.867945Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-22T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-22T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19453, "title": "Will Israel lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-10-17T01:51:26.398434Z", "open_time": "2024-04-22T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-28T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-28T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Golan Heights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights) is a 700 square mile territory recognized by the international community as Syrian territory. 500 square miles of it is occupied by Israel. Israel had de facto annexed it in the [Six-Day War of 1967](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War) and imposed its laws on the territory. The occupation is [not recognized ](https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/26751?ln=en) as legal under international law.\n\nAccording to [this article](https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-708422) in the Jerusalem Post discussing a book on the subject, \"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considered a deal with Syria that would have seen Israel give up control of the Golan and have a demilitarized zone established along the Jordan river.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, it is confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/) (for example, New York Times, Washington Post, Reuters, BBC, Associated Press) or an official announcement from Israel, the United Nations or other relevant government authorities, that Israel has lost de facto control over the territory of the Golan Heights that it had previously de facto annexed, or another entity has taken de facto control over the majority of that territory.\n\nAlternatively if the Israeli government officially announces that Israel has stopped administering or governing the region, this will also be sufficient for a positive resolution.\n\nIf neither of these conditions are met before January 1, 2030, this question resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19453, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756709570.743867, "end_time": 1758687512.98158, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.009 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756709570.743867, "end_time": 1758687512.98158, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.009 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.991, 0.009 ], "means": [ 0.018005980568968724 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.474947770441616, 1.9817400101028446, 0.2358265416482139, 0.5123307444416587, 0.33432944568041745, 0.29806847904392264, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287545.242946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287545.242946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9930183061420662, 0.006981693857933784 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Golan Heights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights) is a 700 square mile territory recognized by the international community as Syrian territory. 500 square miles of it is occupied by Israel. Israel had de facto annexed it in the [Six-Day War of 1967](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War) and imposed its laws on the territory. The occupation is [not recognized ](https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/26751?ln=en) as legal under international law.\n\nAccording to [this article](https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-708422) in the Jerusalem Post discussing a book on the subject, \"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considered a deal with Syria that would have seen Israel give up control of the Golan and have a demilitarized zone established along the Jordan river.\"" }, { "id": 19446, "title": "Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?", "short_title": "Major earthquake in PNW by 2034", "url_title": "Major earthquake in PNW by 2034", "slug": "major-earthquake-in-pnw-by-2034", "author_id": 124496, "author_username": "MontyJ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-17T00:18:07.160434Z", "published_at": "2023-11-03T21:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:28:18.413741Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-03T21:48:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-01-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-01-13T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-03T21:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19446, "title": "Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?", "created_at": "2023-10-17T00:18:07.160434Z", "open_time": "2023-11-03T21:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-06T21:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-06T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-01-13T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-01-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-01-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone)\n>The Cascadia subduction zone is a 960 km (600 mi) fault at a convergent plate boundary, about 112-160 km (70-100 mi) off the Pacific Shore, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It is capable of producing 9.0+ magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis that could reach 30m (100 ft). \n\nMost recently, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone on January 26, 1700, with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.7–9.2. Some geologists have predicted a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9.0 or higher in the next 50 years, and other have stated the risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher in the next 50 years. \n\nSee also Kathryn Schulz' Pulitzer Prize winning piece [The Really Big One](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if the New York Times, Associated Press, Seattle Times, Portland Tribune, Globe and Mail, or Vancouver Sun reports a 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone before January 1, 2034.", "fine_print": "The exact boundaries of the Cascadia subduction zone are unclear; for this question, any earthquake with an epicenter north of Cape Mendocino, California, south of Margaret Bay, British Columbia, east of 150 miles of the Pacific shore, and west of the continental divide will be counted as \"along the Cascadia subduction zone\".", "post_id": 19446, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758490087.419443, "end_time": 1763230769.374738, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758490087.419443, "end_time": 1763230769.374738, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2595104205019172 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.14645117361277293, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9715820669920617, 0.3690731276685909, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.4013068821831965, 0.6149678299500161, 2.2683884577858855, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5885690464613618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287958.10772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287958.10772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9358624478913597, 0.06413755210864025 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone)\n>The Cascadia subduction zone is a 960 km (600 mi) fault at a convergent plate boundary, about 112-160 km (70-100 mi) off the Pacific Shore, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It is capable of producing 9.0+ magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis that could reach 30m (100 ft). \n\nMost recently, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone on January 26, 1700, with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.7–9.2. Some geologists have predicted a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9.0 or higher in the next 50 years, and other have stated the risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher in the next 50 years. \n\nSee also Kathryn Schulz' Pulitzer Prize winning piece [The Really Big One](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one)" }, { "id": 19444, "title": "Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?", "short_title": "US Iran War Before 2025?", "url_title": "US Iran War Before 2025?", "slug": "us-iran-war-before-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-16T16:45:03.543575Z", "published_at": "2023-10-16T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.850340Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-16T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:23:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-16T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 210, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19444, "title": "Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-10-16T16:45:03.543575Z", "open_time": "2023-10-16T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-17T04:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-17T04:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:28:42.007440Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). Some reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.\n\nTensions between the US and Iran have been high in recent years following the [US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#U.S._denies_recertification_and_then_withdraws_(2017%E2%80%93present)) in 2017, the [US assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani), and Iran's [enrichment of uranium](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-enriching-uranium-weapons-grade-nuclear-iaea-rcna72753) to levels approaching those needed to create a nuclear weapon. Some observers [have expressed fears of war](https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/01/are-us-and-iran-really-brink-war) between the two countries.\n\nThe [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/) (UCDP) has been collecting data on organized violence for nearly 40 years. The UCDP tracks and categorizes conflicts and conflict deaths according to a [specific set of definitions](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/). The following sample of conflicts involving the US illustrate some of the different categorizations (note that these categorizations may not necessarily correspond to those specified in the resolution criteria):\n\n* The [2003 Iraq war](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/420) involved Australia, the UK, and the US [as primary parties on one side of the conflict](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/420/1), with Iraq as the primary party on the other side.\n* In the [conflict between Yugoslavia and Kosovo](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/412) the NATO member countries, including the US, [are listed individually in 1999 as secondary warring parties](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/412/1) reflecting NATO's [bombing of Yugoslavia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia).\n* In the [conflict between Iran and Israel](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/14609) the United States is [listed as a secondary warring party](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/14609/1#2020) starting in 2020 when the US assassinated Soleimani and [Iran's retaliatory attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani#IRGC_retaliatory_strike) against US military bases in Iraq.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined the following is true:\n\n* The [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports that both the United States and Iran are primary parties on opposite sides of a conflict resulting in 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\").\n\nOR\n\nBoth of the following are true:\n\n* The US government reports that at least 25 US military personnel have died as a result of military conflict with Iran (the deaths must be caused by conflict with Iranian combatants).\n* The conflict with Iran and the US on opposite sides is reported by the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) to have resulted in 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\").\n\nThe 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's [methodology](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/methodology/) in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "* There is currently not an existing UCDP conflict page with the United States and Iran as primary parties. The following [UCDP definition](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/) will be used to determine whether the US and Iran are primary parties:\n * **Primary party:** The parties that have formed the [incompatibility](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#incompatibility_2).\n* US deaths may come from explicit statements, or from the US Department of Defense (DoD) [Casualty Status](https://www.defense.gov/casualty.pdf) publications (using hostile deaths and the appropriate military operation, if it can be determined that those deaths are primarily caused by Iranian combatants). Note that the Casualty Status publication can currently be found linked from the DoD’s [publications page](https://www.defense.gov/News/Publications/).\n* If the US or Iran meet this criteria for only one of the years (for example, they are listed as primary parties for 2023 but not 2024, and there is a sum total of 1,000 battle-related deaths in the conflict across 2023 and 2024) then this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* Important note: there can be multiple primary parties on one side of a conflict.\n* If UCDP does not report data for 2023 or 2024 **and** credible sources have reported conflict involving the United States and Iran that in the judgment of Metaculus clearly warrants a relevant conflict page under UCDP's definitions, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 19444, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671471.455479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 208, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671471.455479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 208, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.03425872141240401 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.09855704533446, 4.409353097159983, 1.5579361017260638, 0.14692246157700592, 0.4572428978030796, 1.7909370263446482, 0.4708385760100344, 0.07886160293869379, 0.18145788711792155, 0.044783916075153946, 0.634115790920569, 0.004177955813667912, 0.0, 0.005222048995083648, 0.02459386521473536, 0.15218376562053937, 0.011966768509362636, 0.0, 0.0035272360109795415, 0.0, 0.09710436827852624, 0.0, 0.012007724813355864, 0.0, 0.0014326960962141619, 0.21087633562440466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004808885022752904, 0.0, 0.005264408950473785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013039013974224507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37964753184568567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000280985609002124, 0.0, 0.2378758723333089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021992915155671903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.596583651309554e-05, 7.313338324697127e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.936597292991513e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012605105906333615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3269099899048057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004142853703872297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005174744006170792 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.32456777325402, "peer_score": 13.772468493844267, "coverage": 0.9998445826284708, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998445826284708, "spot_peer_score": 0.4678959059216947, "spot_baseline_score": 68.70606883398922, "baseline_archived_score": 91.32456777325402, "peer_archived_score": 13.772468493844267, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.4678959059216947, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 68.70606883398922 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289793.867741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289793.867741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9964988529885892, 0.0035011470114107873 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 625, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). Some reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.\n\nTensions between the US and Iran have been high in recent years following the [US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#U.S._denies_recertification_and_then_withdraws_(2017%E2%80%93present)) in 2017, the [US assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani), and Iran's [enrichment of uranium](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-enriching-uranium-weapons-grade-nuclear-iaea-rcna72753) to levels approaching those needed to create a nuclear weapon. Some observers [have expressed fears of war](https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/01/are-us-and-iran-really-brink-war) between the two countries.\n\nThe [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/) (UCDP) has been collecting data on organized violence for nearly 40 years. The UCDP tracks and categorizes conflicts and conflict deaths according to a [specific set of definitions](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/). The following sample of conflicts involving the US illustrate some of the different categorizations (note that these categorizations may not necessarily correspond to those specified in the resolution criteria):\n\n* The [2003 Iraq war](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/420) involved Australia, the UK, and the US [as primary parties on one side of the conflict](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/420/1), with Iraq as the primary party on the other side.\n* In the [conflict between Yugoslavia and Kosovo](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/412) the NATO member countries, including the US, [are listed individually in 1999 as secondary warring parties](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/412/1) reflecting NATO's [bombing of Yugoslavia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia).\n* In the [conflict between Iran and Israel](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/14609) the United States is [listed as a secondary warring party](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/14609/1#2020) starting in 2020 when the US assassinated Soleimani and [Iran's retaliatory attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani#IRGC_retaliatory_strike) against US military bases in Iraq." }, { "id": 19442, "title": "Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?", "short_title": "Peter Bone Suspension in 2023?", "url_title": "Peter Bone Suspension in 2023?", "slug": "peter-bone-suspension-in-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-16T12:03:54.880429Z", "published_at": "2023-10-19T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.796903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-19T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "open_time": 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Peter Bone, a British Conservative Party politician, served as Deputy Leader of the House of Commons in 2022 and has been representing Wellingborough as an MP since 2005. On 16 October 2023, he was recommended for suspension from the House of Commons by the [Independent Expert Panel](https://rb.gy/ddpkb) for multiple acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct against a staff member in 2012 and 2013. For the full report, see [here](https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/mps-lords--offices/standards-and-financial-interests/independent-expert-panel/hc-1904---the-conduct-of-mr-peter-bone-mp.pdf). \n\nThe recommendation of the panel is a suspension of 6 weeks: \n\n> This is a serious case of misconduct. […] The bullying involved violence, shouting and swearing, mocking, belittling and humiliating behaviour, and ostracism. […]\n\n> This wilful pattern of bullying also included an unwanted incident of sexual misconduct, when the complainant was trapped in a room with the respondent in a hotel in Madrid, […]. This was a deliberate and conscious abuse of power using a sexual mechanism: indecent exposure.\n\nThis suspension, if approved, will trigger the Recall of MPs Act 2015, initiating a recall petition in Bone's constituency which, if signed by 10% of the electorate within six weeks, will lead to a by-election due to the seat being declared vacant.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes**, if Peter Bone MP is suspended from Parliament for any reason before January 1, 2024, as reported by credible sources.", "fine_print": "* A suspension for any length of time is sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.\n* Removal from a party or other duties does not qualify, only being suspended as a MP from the House of Commons is sufficient.\n* If Peter Bone resigns from the House of Commons before he is suspended this question will resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 19442, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698256285.540661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7944977086401068 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698256285.540661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7944977086401068 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8590656600756699 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016810815496895358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014505757420011789, 0.0, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1744025108627094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32034173754887335, 0.05144413896398135, 0.0, 0.04606515460131248, 0.0, 0.06367247509170942, 0.16442976034727774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2936757196039515, 0.43198306302127876, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.0, 0.48263618116055984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41551266136447684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7126735024003407, 0.0, 0.06902058982287625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12585700968552796, 0.3546641551680529, 0.0, 0.2712168925010875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9180534657497312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7635897992428782, 0.0, 1.2817837613587226, 0.0, 0.6647089477243179, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0765292801747592, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6235958674839122, 3.2471701356801224 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.2902563003237597, "coverage": 0.08441258647222366, "baseline_score": 2.6427556457949826, "spot_peer_score": 11.417243684005445, "peer_archived_score": 1.2902563003237597, "baseline_archived_score": 2.6427556457949826, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.417243684005445 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698254871.219216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698254871.219216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17260203319456002, 0.82739796680544 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 193, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Peter Bone, a British Conservative Party politician, served as Deputy Leader of the House of Commons in 2022 and has been representing Wellingborough as an MP since 2005. On 16 October 2023, he was recommended for suspension from the House of Commons by the [Independent Expert Panel](https://rb.gy/ddpkb) for multiple acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct against a staff member in 2012 and 2013. For the full report, see [here](https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/mps-lords--offices/standards-and-financial-interests/independent-expert-panel/hc-1904---the-conduct-of-mr-peter-bone-mp.pdf). \n\nThe recommendation of the panel is a suspension of 6 weeks: \n\n> This is a serious case of misconduct. […] The bullying involved violence, shouting and swearing, mocking, belittling and humiliating behaviour, and ostracism. […]\n\n> This wilful pattern of bullying also included an unwanted incident of sexual misconduct, when the complainant was trapped in a room with the respondent in a hotel in Madrid, […]. This was a deliberate and conscious abuse of power using a sexual mechanism: indecent exposure.\n\nThis suspension, if approved, will trigger the Recall of MPs Act 2015, initiating a recall petition in Bone's constituency which, if signed by 10% of the electorate within six weeks, will lead to a by-election due to the seat being declared vacant." }, { "id": 19408, "title": "Will Cooper Flagg make the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame before 2060?", "short_title": "Cooper Flagg HOF 2060", "url_title": "Cooper Flagg HOF 2060", "slug": "cooper-flagg-hof-2060", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-15T15:53:17.400892Z", "published_at": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.513297Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19408, "title": "Will Cooper Flagg make the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame before 2060?", "created_at": "2023-10-15T15:53:17.400892Z", "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T00:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T00:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/250591/cooper-flagg) and [247Sports](https://247sports.com/Player/Cooper-Flagg-46129443/), Cooper Flagg is the highest ranked basketball recruit in the United States. [He was the youngest player to ever win the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year in 2022.](https://www.si.com/college/duke/recruiting/duke-basketball-recruiting-target-national-honor) [Fansided](https://hoopshabit.com/2023/09/03/meet-cooper-flagg-best-american-prospect/) even made the bold claim that Flagg is the best American recruit since LeBron James, and [the King himself is known to be following Flagg's career.](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nba/who-is-cooper-flagg-meet-the-next-great-nba-draft-prospect/3087165/)\n\nHowever, [others are skeptical](https://youtu.be/nAyv_M_t9og) of putting much stock into high school players. There have been many players hyped up in high school that failed to even become NBA All-Stars such as OJ Mayo, Greg Oden and Kwame Brown.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces Cooper Flagg's induction before January 1, 2060. Otherwise, it will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "If the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame or the NBA ceases to exist before 2060, or if Cooper Flagg passes away before he plays seven NBA seasons, this question will be annulled. If Cooper Flagg goes undrafted for any reason, this question will resolve as No.", "post_id": 19408, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756532679.576371, "end_time": 1787693801.01, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756532679.576371, "end_time": 1787693801.01, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.3774280731994019 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1171902452876372, 0.0, 0.9052638420575493, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.20308529557836363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287383.214337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287383.214337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8974260392969641, 0.10257396070303595 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/250591/cooper-flagg) and [247Sports](https://247sports.com/Player/Cooper-Flagg-46129443/), Cooper Flagg is the highest ranked basketball recruit in the United States. [He was the youngest player to ever win the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year in 2022.](https://www.si.com/college/duke/recruiting/duke-basketball-recruiting-target-national-honor) [Fansided](https://hoopshabit.com/2023/09/03/meet-cooper-flagg-best-american-prospect/) even made the bold claim that Flagg is the best American recruit since LeBron James, and [the King himself is known to be following Flagg's career.](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nba/who-is-cooper-flagg-meet-the-next-great-nba-draft-prospect/3087165/)\n\nHowever, [others are skeptical](https://youtu.be/nAyv_M_t9og) of putting much stock into high school players. There have been many players hyped up in high school that failed to even become NBA All-Stars such as OJ Mayo, Greg Oden and Kwame Brown." }, { "id": 19406, "title": "Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?", "short_title": "2023 Booker Prize", "url_title": "2023 Booker Prize", "slug": "2023-booker-prize", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-15T13:32:36.055812Z", "published_at": "2023-11-09T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.666551Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-09T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-27T04:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-27T04:18:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-09T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19406, "title": "Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?", "created_at": "2023-10-15T13:32:36.055812Z", "open_time": "2023-11-09T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-11T08:42:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-11T08:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-27T04:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-27T04:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-27T04:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-25T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Booker Prize](https://thebookerprizes.com/the-booker-library/prize-years/2023) is an annual literary award for the best English-language novel published in the UK and Ireland. Established in 1969, it comes with a £50,000 prize and is selected by a five-person expert panel. The award has broad cultural impact, often boosting the winner's book sales. \n\nThis year, the winner will be announced at an event at Old Billingsgate, London, on November 26, 2023. The short-listed books and authors are as follows. \n\n\n| Book Title | Author | Summary |\n|----------------------|-------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| The Bee Sting | Paul Murray | A patch of ice on the road, a casual favour to a charming stranger, a bee caught beneath a bridal veil – can a single moment of bad luck change the direction of a life? |\n| Western Lane | Chetna Maroo | Chetna Maroo's tender and moving debut novel about grief, sisterhood, a teenage girl's struggle to transcend herself – and squash. |\n| Prophet Song | Paul Lynch | A mother faces a terrible choice, in Paul Lynch’s exhilarating, propulsive and confrontational portrait of a society on the brink. |\n| This Other Eden | Paul Harding | Full of lyricism and power, Paul Harding's spellbinding novel celebrates the hopes, dreams and resilience of those deemed not to fit in a world brutally intolerant of difference. |\n| If I Survive You | Jonathan Escoffery | An exhilarating novel-in-stories that pulses with style, heart and barbed humour, while unravelling what it means to carve out an existence between cultures, homes and pay cheques. |\n| Study for Obedience | Sarah Bernstein | In her accomplished and unsettling second novel, Sarah Bernstein explores themes of prejudice, abuse and guilt through the eyes of a singularly unreliable narrator. |\n\nFor the first time in eight years, the shortlist for the Booker prize is [male dominated](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/sep/21/booker-shortlist-2023-just-one-british-writer-chetna-maroo), with two out of the four authors being women. Moreover, the past three prizes (2020, 2021, and 2022) have all been [won by men too](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booker_Prize).\n\nAs the [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/sep/21/booker-shortlist-2023-just-one-british-writer-chetna-maroo) reports:\n\n\"Commenting on the fact that more men appear on the list than in recent years, Edugyan said that “it’s the strength and the quality of the work that landed these writers” on the shortlist. Her fellow judge, the actor Robert Webb, joked that “it was very much the work that we were concentrating on rather than whether or not they were called Paul”.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize as announced by [The Booker Prizes](https://thebookerprizes.com/the-booker-library/prize-years/2023). \n\nIf either of them share the prize with any other author, this question will resolve as **Yes** too.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700893674.843248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700893674.843248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.2852865467263183 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.23434107129204243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28045304072399985, 0.0, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4658976858118918, 0.0, 2.108681459977303, 0.5049957670217226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8910158619750768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8598612854256853, 0.0, 0.6465476867609057, 0.041314330922520195, 0.03130111324493289, 2.509562153495021, 0.10935757069316196, 1.6690060432147045, 0.0, 0.21373070951070156, 0.08577160466054211, 0.0, 0.24725458489859575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011348003115516677, 0.07658881074466624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3337872932516758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.8031413812481112, "coverage": 0.9994501864729187, "baseline_score": 43.196313276764094, "spot_peer_score": 4.766226159297424, "peer_archived_score": 0.8031413812481112, "baseline_archived_score": 43.196313276764094, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.766226159297424 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700898452.793491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700898452.793491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8525399382041705, 0.14746006179582946 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Booker Prize](https://thebookerprizes.com/the-booker-library/prize-years/2023) is an annual literary award for the best English-language novel published in the UK and Ireland. Established in 1969, it comes with a £50,000 prize and is selected by a five-person expert panel. The award has broad cultural impact, often boosting the winner's book sales. \n\nThis year, the winner will be announced at an event at Old Billingsgate, London, on November 26, 2023. The short-listed books and authors are as follows. \n\n\n| Book Title | Author | Summary |\n|----------------------|-------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| The Bee Sting | Paul Murray | A patch of ice on the road, a casual favour to a charming stranger, a bee caught beneath a bridal veil – can a single moment of bad luck change the direction of a life? |\n| Western Lane | Chetna Maroo | Chetna Maroo's tender and moving debut novel about grief, sisterhood, a teenage girl's struggle to transcend herself – and squash. |\n| Prophet Song | Paul Lynch | A mother faces a terrible choice, in Paul Lynch’s exhilarating, propulsive and confrontational portrait of a society on the brink. |\n| This Other Eden | Paul Harding | Full of lyricism and power, Paul Harding's spellbinding novel celebrates the hopes, dreams and resilience of those deemed not to fit in a world brutally intolerant of difference. |\n| If I Survive You | Jonathan Escoffery | An exhilarating novel-in-stories that pulses with style, heart and barbed humour, while unravelling what it means to carve out an existence between cultures, homes and pay cheques. |\n| Study for Obedience | Sarah Bernstein | In her accomplished and unsettling second novel, Sarah Bernstein explores themes of prejudice, abuse and guilt through the eyes of a singularly unreliable narrator. |\n\nFor the first time in eight years, the shortlist for the Booker prize is [male dominated](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/sep/21/booker-shortlist-2023-just-one-british-writer-chetna-maroo), with two out of the four authors being women. Moreover, the past three prizes (2020, 2021, and 2022) have all been [won by men too](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booker_Prize).\n\nAs the [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/sep/21/booker-shortlist-2023-just-one-british-writer-chetna-maroo) reports:\n\n\"Commenting on the fact that more men appear on the list than in recent years, Edugyan said that “it’s the strength and the quality of the work that landed these writers” on the shortlist. Her fellow judge, the actor Robert Webb, joked that “it was very much the work that we were concentrating on rather than whether or not they were called Paul”.\"" }, { "id": 19398, "title": "Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?", "short_title": "Bud Light gone by 2026", "url_title": "Bud Light gone by 2026", "slug": "bud-light-gone-by-2026", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-14T10:15:59.441844Z", "published_at": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:57:30.809224Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19398, "title": "Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?", "created_at": "2023-10-14T10:15:59.441844Z", "open_time": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-26T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-26T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 2023, Bud Light attracted controversy by running an ad campaign with transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney. American conservatives began to boycott the company in response. As of the 4th of July weekend of 2023, [Bud Light had fallen to 14th place in popularity among American beers,](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bud-light-plummets-14th-place-210130892.html) [the company had fired hundreds of workers and sales had plummeted 26.5%.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anheuser-busch-bud-light-layoffs-dylan-mulvaney-kid-rock-ryan-young/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes based on credible media reports that Bud Light has been discontinued before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "If Bud Light is re-branded under a different name but Anheuser Busch continues to sell the same product, this question will resolve Ambigious. This question will resolve as Yes if Anheuser Busch becomes defunct.", "post_id": 19398, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757819597.404234, "end_time": 1767204894.041574, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757819597.404234, "end_time": 1767204894.041574, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0041514376058083115 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.20496903243636, 0.9601274926948009, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287154.531503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287154.531503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986545012869604, 0.0013454987130395331 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 156, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 2023, Bud Light attracted controversy by running an ad campaign with transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney. American conservatives began to boycott the company in response. As of the 4th of July weekend of 2023, [Bud Light had fallen to 14th place in popularity among American beers,](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bud-light-plummets-14th-place-210130892.html) [the company had fired hundreds of workers and sales had plummeted 26.5%.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anheuser-busch-bud-light-layoffs-dylan-mulvaney-kid-rock-ryan-young/)" }, { "id": 19397, "title": "Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?", "short_title": "Derrick Rose Hall of Fame by 2040?", "url_title": "Derrick Rose Hall of Fame by 2040?", "slug": "derrick-rose-hall-of-fame-by-2040", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-14T10:06:59.335050Z", "published_at": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T17:55:31.833607Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19397, "title": "Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?", "created_at": "2023-10-14T10:06:59.335050Z", "open_time": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-26T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-26T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2044-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[As of 10/14/23, every player who has been selected NBA MVP has eventually been elected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award). [It is considered very likely that LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid will all make the Hall of Fame.](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html) However, Derrick Rose, the 2010-2011 MVP, is only assigned a 10% chance according to Basketball Reference.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces, before January 1, 2040, that Derrick Rose has been selected for admission. If he is not, this question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "If the Naismith Hall of Fame ceases to exist for any reason, this question will be annulled", "post_id": 19397, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757440521.407185, "end_time": 1767780604.428912, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757440521.407185, "end_time": 1767780604.428912, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.357796770329351 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.3852159650935634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3134139391066886, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287583.963296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287583.963296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9263387968279371, 0.07366120317206293 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[As of 10/14/23, every player who has been selected NBA MVP has eventually been elected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award). [It is considered very likely that LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid will all make the Hall of Fame.](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html) However, Derrick Rose, the 2010-2011 MVP, is only assigned a 10% chance according to Basketball Reference." }, { "id": 19396, "title": "Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season?", "short_title": "Wembanyama rookie All-Star", "url_title": "Wembanyama rookie All-Star", "slug": "wembanyama-rookie-all-star", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-14T09:55:20.811697Z", "published_at": "2023-10-26T21:03:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.105712Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-26T21:03:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-02T00:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-02T00:48:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-26T21:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19396, "title": "Will Victor Wembanyama make the NBA All-Star Game in his rookie season?", "created_at": "2023-10-14T09:55:20.811697Z", "open_time": "2023-10-26T21:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-29T21:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-29T21:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-02T00:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-02T00:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-02T00:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "French basketball phenom Victor Wembanyama was picked first overall in the 2023 NBA Draft. Soon after, [he was given an 84 rating for NBA 2k24, the highest rating for a rookie in the franchise's history.](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10085735-victor-wembanyamas-nba2k24-rating-revealed-highest-rated-rookie-in-games-history) [The hype around Wembanyama](https://hoopshabit.com/2022/10/16/victor-wembanyama-best-prospect/) [has reached](https://theathletic.com/3690276/2022/10/19/victor-wembanyama-nba-draft/) [a fever pitch](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rxl6xX02WS4) in [major media outlets.](https://sports.yahoo.com/is-it-even-possible-for-victor-wembanyama-to-live-up-to-the-hype-194708455.html?guccounter=1)\n\n[Since the 1990s, only six NBA rookies have made the All-Star Game in their first season.](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/how-many-nba-rookies-have-been-all-stars-in-their-rookie-season) This is a good indicator of a future Hall of Fame entry, as the majority of players who made the All-Star game in their first season since the 1979-80 season have eventually made the Hall.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the NBA announces that Victor Wembanyama was selected for the 2024 NBA All-Star Game. If he is not selected, this question will resolve negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19396, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703801689.793645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703801689.793645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6183715480793034 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.39766461858264546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7200771842785656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5732928815018028, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.151485642355431, "coverage": 0.9937613635848349, "baseline_score": 1.1355536702901676, "spot_peer_score": 5.76771699622874, "peer_archived_score": 7.151485642355431, "baseline_archived_score": 1.1355536702901676, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.76771699622874 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008308.071392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008308.071392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.36292593886441993, 0.6370740611355801 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "French basketball phenom Victor Wembanyama was picked first overall in the 2023 NBA Draft. Soon after, [he was given an 84 rating for NBA 2k24, the highest rating for a rookie in the franchise's history.](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10085735-victor-wembanyamas-nba2k24-rating-revealed-highest-rated-rookie-in-games-history) [The hype around Wembanyama](https://hoopshabit.com/2022/10/16/victor-wembanyama-best-prospect/) [has reached](https://theathletic.com/3690276/2022/10/19/victor-wembanyama-nba-draft/) [a fever pitch](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rxl6xX02WS4) in [major media outlets.](https://sports.yahoo.com/is-it-even-possible-for-victor-wembanyama-to-live-up-to-the-hype-194708455.html?guccounter=1)\n\n[Since the 1990s, only six NBA rookies have made the All-Star Game in their first season.](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/how-many-nba-rookies-have-been-all-stars-in-their-rookie-season) This is a good indicator of a future Hall of Fame entry, as the majority of players who made the All-Star game in their first season since the 1979-80 season have eventually made the Hall." }, { "id": 19386, "title": "Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?", "short_title": "Non-Test Nuclear Detonation in Iran by 2025?", "url_title": "Non-Test Nuclear Detonation in Iran by 2025?", "slug": "non-test-nuclear-detonation-in-iran-by-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-13T19:28:51.967089Z", "published_at": "2023-10-13T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.528511Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-13T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T07:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-13T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 115, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19386, "title": "Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-10-13T19:28:51.967089Z", "open_time": "2023-10-13T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-16T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-16T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T07:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T07:01:11.297820Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.\n\nWhile Israel [does not publicly confirm that it has nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option#Nuclear_ambiguity), based on US intelligence the [Federation of American Scientists estimates](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that Israel has 90 nuclear warheads.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, a non-test nuclear weapon is detonated in Iran. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. For the purposes of this question, Iranian territory will include its 12 nautical mile [territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea). To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\").", "post_id": 19386, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654538.147122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654538.147122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.004937925384818159 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.800746033587824, 2.114121337753268, 0.406879433030478, 0.0006664662732648743, 0.010525708885142376, 0.022946743998104726, 9.944237270650903e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4009062330289771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063304658603344135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010194536566111888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.97204852023056, "peer_score": 2.080982908460018, "coverage": 0.999996033232475, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999996033232475, "spot_peer_score": 0.8211617367060045, "spot_baseline_score": 95.60566524124029, "baseline_archived_score": 98.97204852023056, "peer_archived_score": 2.080982908460018, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.8211617367060045, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 95.60566524124029 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288925.235671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288925.235671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 238, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.\n\nWhile Israel [does not publicly confirm that it has nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option#Nuclear_ambiguity), based on US intelligence the [Federation of American Scientists estimates](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that Israel has 90 nuclear warheads." }, { "id": 19375, "title": "Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?", "short_title": "Israel-Hezbollah Conflict 400 Deaths by 2024?", "url_title": "Israel-Hezbollah Conflict 400 Deaths by 2024?", "slug": "israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-12T21:42:59.156430Z", "published_at": "2023-10-13T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.507570Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-13T00:00:00Z", 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19375, "title": "Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-12T21:42:59.156430Z", "open_time": "2023-10-13T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-09T18:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-09T18:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-09T18:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\n\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that there have been 400 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.", "fine_print": "* Both combatant and non-combatant deaths count toward the total.\n* Deaths will be summed over the entirety of the period in question.\n* In the event death totals are reported but it is not clear which conflict the deaths occurred in (for example, if deaths of Israeli military members are reported in total and not disaggregated between those occurring in conflict with Hamas and those occurring in conflict with Hezbollah) Metaculus may use the available estimates to make a determination whether the threshold has been met.\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* The median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the estimates differ substantially.", "post_id": 19375, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704061709.163709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704061709.163709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05210989661883296 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.438321273033906, 5.9195129616619395, 0.2985179761041358, 1.982988511514141, 1.2176134222545316, 2.4564491460616393, 0.15397212320626444, 0.6992012327188393, 0.0, 0.38078824483884927, 1.036955378067638, 0.0, 0.11161885388424365, 0.0, 0.1801138855595485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001141695322050572, 0.12076830946302684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08619049835766811, 0.0036491754352390277, 0.0, 0.007050248220700992, 0.0, 0.0983889478901395, 0.0, 0.04760231289110347, 0.0030578221601624896, 0.018145231805054875, 0.06612647795418972, 0.08924938979887437, 0.05086389194933254, 0.0, 0.013749554165327273, 0.21460383439518876, 0.001271699693724388, 0.0, 0.06529408642318985, 0.0, 0.01753991967940413, 0.0, 0.02530708346119719, 0.0005615367448597199, 0.10001535513187128, 0.03313295227623203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025474768392577253, 0.016443872359116266, 0.03661082273065807, 0.014751828127074942, 4.8033920035236966e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045839324145448744, 0.0, 0.046186836702988655, 0.016946282303830797, 0.041900231805098435, 0.0, 0.00887455477665474, 0.0004924294753687684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013930371987266422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034801623719269547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007619260256521799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023881872675934446 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 30.02922288797482, "coverage": 0.9974059598904272, "baseline_score": 40.343081301027674, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 30.02922288797482, "baseline_archived_score": 40.343081301027674, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704061709.203278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704061709.203278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 522, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\n\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah." }, { "id": 19361, "title": "Will Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee be invited to the APEC summit in November 2023?", "short_title": "Hong Kong invited to APEC summit?", "url_title": "Hong Kong invited to APEC summit?", "slug": "hong-kong-invited-to-apec-summit", "author_id": 153010, "author_username": "bohaska", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-12T12:12:17.281052Z", "published_at": "2023-10-27T02:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.023193Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-27T02:44:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-27T02:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19361, "title": "Will Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee be invited to the APEC summit in November 2023?", "created_at": "2023-10-12T12:12:17.281052Z", "open_time": "2023-10-27T02:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-29T00:27:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-29T00:27:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-31T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 27, 2023, the United States announced that it will [bar Hong Kong's Chief Executive, John Lee, from attending the APEC summit](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/27/hong-kong-john-lee-apec/), even though Hong Kong is an APEC member. Since then, the Hong Kong government has been [appealing to the U.S. government](https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3229190/hong-kong-leader-john-lee-expected-be-banned-apec-meeting-us-move-strongly-condemned-beijing) to let him attend the trade talks.\n\nJohn Lee has been [sanctioned by the US](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1088) since August 2020 for suppressing pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Exiled activists from Hong Kong have been calling to ban him from APEC. \n\nChina has been [vaguely hinting](https://twitter.com/theserenadong/status/1706649655424241917) at the US to reconsider and invite John Lee to the APEC summit, but the US has not yield to China's demands.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if a credible source reports that the Chief Executive of Hong Kong has received an invitation to attend the APEC summit from November 14-16, 2023 in the capacity of the leader of Hong Kong. It does not matter whether he accepts the invitation or not.\n\nThis question resolves **No** if there are no credible reports before November 14, 2023, that the Chief Executive of Hong Kong has received an invite to the APEC summit.", "fine_print": "This question resolves **Yes** if the Chief Executive of Hong Kong changes and the new Chief Executive of Hong Kong is invited to the APEC summit.\n\nThe question is annulled if the 2023 APEC Summit is not held before December 31, 2023.", "post_id": 19361, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699994118.637533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699994118.637533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3776388590140685 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 1.5681937431602668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.6577905345974407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.23033156458993267, "coverage": 0.20796048425055802, "baseline_score": -26.057668843390516, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.23033156458993267, "baseline_archived_score": -26.057668843390516, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698677507.715775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698677507.715775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8074480930361299, 0.19255190696387015 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 27, 2023, the United States announced that it will [bar Hong Kong's Chief Executive, John Lee, from attending the APEC summit](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/27/hong-kong-john-lee-apec/), even though Hong Kong is an APEC member. Since then, the Hong Kong government has been [appealing to the U.S. government](https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3229190/hong-kong-leader-john-lee-expected-be-banned-apec-meeting-us-move-strongly-condemned-beijing) to let him attend the trade talks.\n\nJohn Lee has been [sanctioned by the US](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1088) since August 2020 for suppressing pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Exiled activists from Hong Kong have been calling to ban him from APEC. \n\nChina has been [vaguely hinting](https://twitter.com/theserenadong/status/1706649655424241917) at the US to reconsider and invite John Lee to the APEC summit, but the US has not yield to China's demands." }, { "id": 19358, "title": "Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?", "short_title": "US Interest Rate Hike in Q4 2023?", "url_title": "US Interest Rate Hike in Q4 2023?", "slug": "us-interest-rate-hike-in-q4-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-11T16:06:45.450266Z", "published_at": "2023-10-18T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.273404Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-18T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-12T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-12T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-18T16:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-18T16:29:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-18T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19358, "title": "Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-10-11T16:06:45.450266Z", "open_time": "2023-10-18T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-21T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-21T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-18T16:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-18T16:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-18T16:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-12T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-12T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The U.S. federal funds target rate, often simply called the \"fed funds rate,\" is the interest rate at which depository institutions (primarily banks) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, this rate serves as a benchmark for various other interest rates in the economy, including those for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. The FOMC adjusts the rate to influence monetary conditions, aiming to achieve policy objectives such as full employment and stable prices. By raising or lowering the fed funds rate, the Federal Reserve can either cool down an overheated economy or stimulate economic activity, thereby indirectly influencing inflation, employment, and overall economic growth.\n\nSince July 26, 2023, the Federal Funds Rate has been at 5.25% to 5.50%. In late August, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech at [Jackson Hole](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/jackson-hole-meeting-jerome-powell-speech-today/card/transcript-read-jerome-powell-s-jackson-hole-speech-WVKhbYPJrWlYI9GYj4hB?mod=article_inline), where he emphasized the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% target. Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has significantly tightened its monetary policy to combat persistently high inflation. While the inflation rate has declined from its peak, it remains elevated. Powell stated that the Fed is prepared to raise rates further if necessary and plans to maintain a restrictive policy stance until inflation is on a sustainable downward path. The speech also touched upon the complexities and uncertainties the Fed faces in balancing its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, particularly in the context of lingering pandemic-induced supply and demand dislocations. \n\nWhile there were no rate hikes in [September](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/20/live-updates-fed-decision-september-2023.html), [markets](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) put an implied probability of 27.8% on the outcome of a rate rise before the end of the year, though much of this depends on economic factors that remain uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 17, 2023, and before December 18, 2023, the Federal Funds target range as reported [by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr) is higher than 5.25-5.50%.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19358, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702371137.348642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702371137.348642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0863850248647975 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.24828179361502, 6.8777870708981865, 1.7788934041244584, 0.20620147702642477, 0.19411720179226452, 0.3103887633269403, 0.5007387990534937, 0.45786225535476494, 0.22624007091461726, 0.25992680887538594, 1.011716477950454, 0.0, 0.09169753163314498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10170280165018966, 0.013087394083192034, 0.014572985085022729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007254371728824626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03432426661980639, 0.0, 1.0261037398527244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035718598937916577, 0.0, 0.8678248845417028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014324495277256958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005090291650876231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005987133726784101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018726136479240064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6811722603758346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33414766806612, 0.0, 0.00010424239163311021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4116237687737996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00036242407021046816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012051197561465337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.921722446764564, "coverage": 0.9999829977278447, "baseline_score": 80.86192361346946, "spot_peer_score": 7.944552138859174, "peer_archived_score": 13.921722446764564, "baseline_archived_score": 80.86192361346946, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.944552138859174 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702371137.405009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702371137.405009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994049825300836, 0.000595017469916374 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 569, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The U.S. federal funds target rate, often simply called the \"fed funds rate,\" is the interest rate at which depository institutions (primarily banks) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, this rate serves as a benchmark for various other interest rates in the economy, including those for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. The FOMC adjusts the rate to influence monetary conditions, aiming to achieve policy objectives such as full employment and stable prices. By raising or lowering the fed funds rate, the Federal Reserve can either cool down an overheated economy or stimulate economic activity, thereby indirectly influencing inflation, employment, and overall economic growth.\n\nSince July 26, 2023, the Federal Funds Rate has been at 5.25% to 5.50%. In late August, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech at [Jackson Hole](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/jackson-hole-meeting-jerome-powell-speech-today/card/transcript-read-jerome-powell-s-jackson-hole-speech-WVKhbYPJrWlYI9GYj4hB?mod=article_inline), where he emphasized the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% target. Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has significantly tightened its monetary policy to combat persistently high inflation. While the inflation rate has declined from its peak, it remains elevated. Powell stated that the Fed is prepared to raise rates further if necessary and plans to maintain a restrictive policy stance until inflation is on a sustainable downward path. The speech also touched upon the complexities and uncertainties the Fed faces in balancing its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, particularly in the context of lingering pandemic-induced supply and demand dislocations. \n\nWhile there were no rate hikes in [September](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/20/live-updates-fed-decision-september-2023.html), [markets](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) put an implied probability of 27.8% on the outcome of a rate rise before the end of the year, though much of this depends on economic factors that remain uncertain." }, { "id": 19350, "title": "Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?", "short_title": "US Confirms Iran Involved in Hamas Attack?", "url_title": "US Confirms Iran Involved in Hamas Attack?", "slug": "us-confirms-iran-involved-in-hamas-attack", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-10T20:25:02.923440Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.389242Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T17:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T17:22:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19350, "title": "Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?", "created_at": "2023-10-10T20:25:02.923440Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-11T01:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-11T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T17:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T17:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-23T17:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, one or more US government officials acting in an official government capacity state that Iran was likely involved in planning the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, and the statement it not contradicted within seven days.", "fine_print": "* If a statement does not directly say that Iran was involved in planning the attack but instead directly presents intelligence findings, evidence that members of the Iranian government or military communicated with Hamas regarding the attack prior to the attack will be considered sufficient to count as Iranian involvement in planning the attack.\n* \"Acting in an official government capacity\" will be considered to mean an official statement on behalf of the US government or responding to reporter questions on behalf of the US government. The following is a non-exhaustive list representing the kinds of reports that will **not** be considered to be \"acting in an official government capacity\":\n * Reporting as an anonymous source\n * Congressional representatives describing information or evidence they have seen\n * Personal opinions (for example \"I believe that. . .\" or \"In my view the evidence is clear. . .\")\n * Leaked information not confirmed by the US government\n* The following non-exhaustive list of terms will be considered to meet the \"likely\" threshold specified in the criteria:\n * \"Likely\"\n * \"Probable\"\n * \"Highly likely\"\n * \"High confidence\"\n * \"Has concluded that\"\n* Terms such as \"possible\", \"plausible\", or similar will not be considered to meet the \"likely\" threshold.\n* A statement will be considered to be contradicted within seven days if the US government or a US government official, including the same official who made the original statement, either reports a different conclusion, reports a confidence level below \"likely\", states that there is insufficient evidence, or disavows the original statement.\n* If it is unclear whether a statement meets the specified criteria, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 19350, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704036524.891034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704036524.891034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05315611051788245 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.195467676311399, 5.933137781877454, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0660957298728644, 1.0833012022328878, 0.15813873095213704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6010903321614789, 0.5284135293839354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019754520645241095, 0.5306510897131016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11083301965526829, 0.0056145053338992595, 0.09563836751124195, 0.019132522858291853, 0.14749563312177918, 0.07618090488681187, 0.015663757846189213, 0.06148481321923326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08459892271552819, 0.0, 0.07320065486074036, 0.0887319228627799, 0.2218950619316045, 0.011574002057161041, 0.014128607803813408, 0.07049165811994734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431570333994386, 0.0, 0.008125528952671308, 0.012715044525389515, 0.0, 0.030573526996236923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06516519198932734, 0.04544585979428191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12804351164029554, 0.004297018526623552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021564436332159993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02547085730884873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032187559410783474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016456269758058238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.113204502458414, "coverage": 0.9998782522058415, "baseline_score": 54.46164621066937, "spot_peer_score": 15.005229622516888, "peer_archived_score": 15.113204502458414, "baseline_archived_score": 54.46164621066937, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.005229622516888 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704036524.918152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704036524.918152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9992174827709078, 0.00078251722909214 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 238, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead." }, { "id": 19333, "title": "Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?", "short_title": "Yahya Sinwar Remains in Power?", "url_title": "Yahya Sinwar Remains in Power?", "slug": "yahya-sinwar-remains-in-power", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 130973, "username": "NMorrison" } ], "created_at": "2023-10-09T16:11:47.624992Z", "published_at": "2023-10-09T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.001159Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-09T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:42:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-09T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 179, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", 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"created_at": "2023-10-09T16:11:47.624992Z", "open_time": "2023-10-09T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-10T01:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-10T01:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gaza, also known as the [Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip) is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians.\n\nIn the [1948 Arab-Israeli War](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war), Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the [Six-Day War in 1967](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39960461), when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the [Oslo Accords](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/what-were-oslo-accords-israel-palestinians) the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\n\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, [Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas), an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the [2006 Palestinian legislative elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election), a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the [2007 clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_conflict). Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the [Palestinian Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_National_Authority).\n\nOn October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\n[Yahya Sinwar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahya_Sinwar) is the Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip. Israel was previously [reported to have threatened](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-to-threaten-action-against-hamas-chief-sinwar-over-terror-cheerleading/) Sinwar in 2022 in response to his [calls for violence against Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/sinwar-warns-israel-hamas-wont-hesitate-to-take-any-steps-if-al-aqsa-is-violated/), and some Israeli politicians have previously called for his assassination. Following the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel [it was reported](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-hit-gaza-home-of-hamas-chief-yahya-sinwar-amid-terror-group-assault/) that Sinwar's home was bombed by Israel.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Yahya Sinwar has either stepped down or been replaced as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip, been captured by Israel, or that he has died. The question will resolve as **No** if he continuously holds his position or if there is no reporting indicating a change in status.", "fine_print": "* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.", "post_id": 19333, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056880.037716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056880.037716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05885649104462263 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.154560911328437, 8.808758212503966, 0.6402868318218065, 1.0750372960677335, 0.10564142270315233, 0.5181117964539221, 0.12406709493642436, 0.0, 0.029741132889819992, 0.07737245739058542, 0.049581103745941324, 0.0, 0.45465318519696385, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0198955843960895, 0.004908286341918524, 0.6395611914387177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02179619280625027, 0.00433153096846536, 0.0, 0.008925578616698277, 0.01121061991841466, 0.03161676237160959, 0.014000607168687184, 0.0, 0.013250724853492808, 0.0, 1.8660259972838047, 0.002751047896229079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006025941117362484, 0.0, 0.0022451604936222433, 0.0007093709940374008, 0.0, 0.0050974164725495225, 0.0, 0.001821635876438435, 0.0, 0.017193805363356494, 0.0010094522097452497, 0.0014686178481337206, 0.0, 0.001105763922270661, 0.0, 0.008851575533532672, 0.0, 0.0008292852001094695, 0.0, 0.0004834679592020813, 0.0, 0.00016848355650584667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018721429457124278, 0.336604438046103, 0.0, 0.0, 4.265084934577449e-05, 4.555155793138068e-05, 0.014794400355719326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010595485191441276, 0.14784758876787296, 0.0, 0.00030309452269291197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031273400791615276, 0.0006014878364152081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029681526581738686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1432068101507745e-05, 0.00025351979614838714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004382446600946652, 0.0, 0.000107669148440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005551232030470518, 0.0, 0.013587860777432636 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 33.772654359588245, "coverage": 0.9998420885723956, "baseline_score": 32.77578976212702, "spot_peer_score": -19.813561796882716, "peer_archived_score": 33.772654359588245, "baseline_archived_score": 32.77578976212702, "spot_peer_archived_score": -19.813561796882716 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056880.078385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056880.078385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1222, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gaza, also known as the [Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip) is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians.\n\nIn the [1948 Arab-Israeli War](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war), Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the [Six-Day War in 1967](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39960461), when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the [Oslo Accords](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/what-were-oslo-accords-israel-palestinians) the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\n\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, [Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas), an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the [2006 Palestinian legislative elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election), a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the [2007 clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_conflict). Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the [Palestinian Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_National_Authority).\n\nOn October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\n[Yahya Sinwar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahya_Sinwar) is the Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip. Israel was previously [reported to have threatened](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-to-threaten-action-against-hamas-chief-sinwar-over-terror-cheerleading/) Sinwar in 2022 in response to his [calls for violence against Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/sinwar-warns-israel-hamas-wont-hesitate-to-take-any-steps-if-al-aqsa-is-violated/), and some Israeli politicians have previously called for his assassination. Following the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel [it was reported](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-hit-gaza-home-of-hamas-chief-yahya-sinwar-amid-terror-group-assault/) that Sinwar's home was bombed by Israel." }, { "id": 19332, "title": "Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?", "short_title": "Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024?", "url_title": "Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024?", "slug": "israel-deadly-attack-on-iran-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-09T15:24:45.383503Z", "published_at": "2023-10-09T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.164620Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-09T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19332, "title": "Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-09T15:24:45.383503Z", "open_time": "2023-10-09T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-10T01:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-10T01:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 9, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Israel has carried out an attack with damage occurring within the borders of the country of Iran that has killed at least five Iranians, and that either of the following is true:\n\n* Israel has explicitly acknowledged and taken credit for the attack\n* Israel performed the attack in an unobscured manner, such that credible sources report without ambiguity that the attack was carried out by Israel.", "fine_print": "* The attack need not involve Israeli forces within the borders of Iran, cross-border missile or ballistic attacks are sufficient.\n* An attack must be a [kinetic attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action), using weaponry or physical violence. A cyberattack would not count, even one resulting in deaths.\n* Israel will be considered to have explicitly acknowledged and taken credit for the attack if the Israeli government or any agency of the Israeli government publicly confirms that the attack was carried out by Israel.\n* The five deaths threshold must be met in the span of 24 hours, smaller events over a longer timespan would not count. The deaths do not need to occur in the same location, a coordinated strike on multiple targets in the country would be sufficient, as would multiple assassinations taking place in the same 24 hour span that Israel acknowledges and takes credit for.", "post_id": 19332, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704061552.140152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704061552.140152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02674461000794022 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.23552029467284, 11.033056429049452, 0.9057712028440235, 0.05144208420116615, 0.013273932064966954, 0.9793407719371475, 0.003763991147351234, 0.008704367903261442, 0.001475599132558081, 0.00039597715003290114, 0.08234259834411788, 0.0, 0.0008755913347269039, 0.0, 0.0027430381739049314, 3.527246528313886, 0.0, 0.029397480634653476, 0.001399987215926861, 0.000328674170616559, 0.005892094453462983, 0.00040349449049613845, 0.0, 0.002585263825093275, 0.0, 0.013883592286949274, 0.03233365052628169, 0.0071838769911555045, 6.354375406839794e-05, 0.0, 0.02242449328662986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1244548074140236e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001661913972368027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037707102864124984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007698703272792694, 0.0, 9.002110378441212e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00046118477747461947, 0.0005983728305537459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.543808895609109, "coverage": 0.9999416671055937, "baseline_score": 93.33730143628655, "spot_peer_score": 9.20714506961842, "peer_archived_score": 8.543808895609109, "baseline_archived_score": 93.33730143628655, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.20714506961842 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704061552.185178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704061552.185178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 889, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead." }, { "id": 19308, "title": "Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?", "short_title": "Hamas loses de facto control of Gaza by 2024?", "url_title": "Hamas loses de facto control of Gaza by 2024?", "slug": "hamas-loses-de-facto-control-of-gaza-by-2024", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-08T00:46:25.006181Z", "published_at": "2023-10-08T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.837101Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-08T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 276, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T20:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T20:32:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-08T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 669, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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"exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19308, "title": "Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-08T00:46:25.006181Z", "open_time": "2023-10-08T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-08T14:26:08.432000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-08T14:26:08.432000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T20:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T20:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T20:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gaza, also known as the [Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip) is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians.\n\nIn the [1948 Arab-Israeli War](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war), Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the [Six-Day War in 1967](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39960461), when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the [Oslo Accords](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/what-were-oslo-accords-israel-palestinians) the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\n\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, [Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas), an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the [2006 Palestinian legislative elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election), a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the [2007 clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_conflict). Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the [Palestinian Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_National_Authority).\n\nOn October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if at any point between Oct 7, 2023 and Dec 31, 2023, the consensus of credible reports is that Hamas no longer has de facto control of the majority of the land area of the Gaza Strip. It resolves **No** in all other cases, including if the consensus of credible reports is that control of Gaza is disputed, or if there is no consensus of credible reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19308, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704048566.156227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 669, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704048566.156227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 669, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03141990809680914 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.9143275454158, 21.833930061895447, 0.7503450996647464, 0.6603495164559976, 0.06875919027487241, 2.4603057733240665, 0.043712020363958944, 0.030814594803768667, 0.011857709204495566, 0.0161605059544477, 0.19427636983067953, 0.045627861714516355, 0.03204977504740766, 0.9749636636322816, 0.014221542641054822, 3.1922830523919634, 0.008430743947771638, 0.0065320725877912825, 0.11876548450929478, 0.0029821976143164473, 0.08111915994489519, 0.01193806099672607, 0.023877537783334915, 0.0, 4.4410011395630956e-05, 0.011377808353511073, 0.01061134625436135, 0.004649737519597001, 0.005354609995729778, 0.0, 0.02624135167779939, 4.4813231159123785e-08, 0.0, 5.510224229943012e-05, 0.0062173158483219545, 0.010586167655920936, 3.195595491692752e-07, 2.1312842239408993e-06, 7.083451216709494e-07, 5.713282361116453e-06, 0.012854582944137964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010099079824556253, 2.8368533726755605e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.260782695045869e-05, 0.013032812668384354, 0.00025185967229972615, 0.0, 0.22944486427083308, 9.298819368430693e-05, 0.005524069738433421, 0.01033123237360382, 5.0370319681871816e-05, 0.0, 0.002317860283668307, 0.003028780552465216, 1.9766089974468895e-05, 4.1940366496453086e-08, 9.516825508479963e-07, 0.001043819740208034, 2.3168649550677293e-05, 8.49253068544842e-06, 1.789402467249246e-05, 0.0, 2.0429816328975846e-05, 0.037626646258181004, 2.474120851277012e-08, 0.0, 2.9453498716768597e-05, 3.192539294364346e-10, 0.0046430115677085545, 4.9318451322709556e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002379638458202864, 0.3113928180619685, 3.014465949086813e-06, 1.1648080096053487e-07, 0.010988827637195676, 0.0, 0.007720894497130999, 1.8490716586745146e-05, 0.0, 0.005001240839722825, 0.00011144496253121707, 4.382803560594414e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.443672192097009e-09, 2.658071524233592e-05, 0.0005198194100711861, 0.0, 9.210995073991396e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 27.314712382092544, "coverage": 0.9999993734030849, "baseline_score": 47.62163723999913, "spot_peer_score": 16.999713160031497, "peer_archived_score": 27.314712382092544, "baseline_archived_score": 47.62163723999913, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.999713160031497 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704048566.219245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 669, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704048566.219245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 669, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 61, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3639, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gaza, also known as the [Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip) is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians.\n\nIn the [1948 Arab-Israeli War](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war), Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the [Six-Day War in 1967](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39960461), when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the [Oslo Accords](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/what-were-oslo-accords-israel-palestinians) the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\n\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, [Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas), an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the [2006 Palestinian legislative elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election), a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the [2007 clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_conflict). Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the [Palestinian Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_National_Authority).\n\nOn October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come." } ] }
