Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3020
{ "count": 6357, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3040", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3000", "results": [ { "id": 24798, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "Nvidia Apple Market Cap June 2024", "url_title": "Nvidia Apple Market Cap June 2024", "slug": "nvidia-apple-market-cap-june-2024", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-30T19:37:57.844841Z", "published_at": "2024-05-31T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.710050Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-31T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T15:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-31T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24798, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "created_at": "2024-05-30T19:37:57.844841Z", "open_time": "2024-05-31T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-03T07:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-03T07:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T15:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T15:36:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "* If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 24798, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 24790, "title": "Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?", "short_title": "PLAN Surface Vessel Loss by 2030?", "url_title": "PLAN Surface Vessel Loss by 2030?", "slug": "plan-surface-vessel-loss-by-2030", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-30T14:57:58.902538Z", "published_at": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.385774Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24790, "title": "Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-05-30T14:57:58.902538Z", "open_time": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-07T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-07T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [People's Liberation Army Navy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Navy) is a branch of the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China (PRC). According to Wikipedia:\n\n>As of 2024, it is the second-largest navy in the world (behind the United States Navy) in terms of total displacement, and the largest navy per number of ships in active service.\n\nThe PLAN consists of large aircraft carriers, frigates, destroyers, and submarines (amongst other types of vessels), and is considered a \"blue-water\" navy in that it is able to project and deploy its force around the world for long and sustained periods of time.\n\nWith substantial territorial disputes amongst almost all of its neighbours in the South China Sea - perhaps most notably with Taiwan and the Philippines - there is a risk that one or more of the PLAN's vessels may be lost at sea; this could be due to warfare, or perhaps even accidental loss.\n\nCNA recently provided a [clarification](https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202405290189.aspx) on a PLAN nuclear-submarine which was allegedly sunk last year:\n\n>The British \"Daily Mail\" reported in October last year that the Chinese Communist Party's Type 093 \"business-class\" nuclear submarine sank in the Yellow Sea in August last year. Cai Mingyan, Director of National Security, said today that the Type 093 commercial-class nuclear submarine was not a serious shipwreck, but there were some accidents, and the location of the submarine was \"all in control\".\n\n------\n\n*Will any PLAN vessel be sunk by 2030?*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a surface ship belonging to the People's Liberation Army Navy is lost prior to 2030 according to a consensus of credible sources.\n\n\"Lost\" will be defined as the sinking of a vessel, whether deliberate (scuttling), accidental, or as a result of warfare.", "fine_print": "- The vessels suitable for a positive resolution are listed on [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ships_of_the_People%27s_Liberation_Army_Navy) Wikipedia page.\n\n- The vessel must be a \"*surface ship*\" which displaces at least **400** tonnes; \"*auxiliary vessels*\" do not count.\n\n- In the event that a deliberate or accidental loss of a surface ship will be denied by the PLAN, Metaculus Admins will use credible sources and their best judgement to consider whether the known information is sufficient for a positive resolution.\n\n- Note that the definition of \"lost\" in this question requires the ship to be sunk. Therefore, a ship that is decommissioned, scrapped, or abandoned without being sunk will not count.", "post_id": 24790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755462637.887811, "end_time": 1767036035.361019, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755462637.887811, "end_time": 1767036035.361019, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4582062778374615 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289272.483343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289272.483343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47477236412936985, 0.5252276358706301 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [People's Liberation Army Navy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Navy) is a branch of the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China (PRC). According to Wikipedia:\n\n>As of 2024, it is the second-largest navy in the world (behind the United States Navy) in terms of total displacement, and the largest navy per number of ships in active service.\n\nThe PLAN consists of large aircraft carriers, frigates, destroyers, and submarines (amongst other types of vessels), and is considered a \"blue-water\" navy in that it is able to project and deploy its force around the world for long and sustained periods of time.\n\nWith substantial territorial disputes amongst almost all of its neighbours in the South China Sea - perhaps most notably with Taiwan and the Philippines - there is a risk that one or more of the PLAN's vessels may be lost at sea; this could be due to warfare, or perhaps even accidental loss.\n\nCNA recently provided a [clarification](https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202405290189.aspx) on a PLAN nuclear-submarine which was allegedly sunk last year:\n\n>The British \"Daily Mail\" reported in October last year that the Chinese Communist Party's Type 093 \"business-class\" nuclear submarine sank in the Yellow Sea in August last year. Cai Mingyan, Director of National Security, said today that the Type 093 commercial-class nuclear submarine was not a serious shipwreck, but there were some accidents, and the location of the submarine was \"all in control\".\n\n------\n\n*Will any PLAN vessel be sunk by 2030?*" }, { "id": 24789, "title": "Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?", "short_title": "BP Kaskida Oil Field Well by Jul 2026", "url_title": "BP Kaskida Oil Field Well by Jul 2026", "slug": "bp-kaskida-oil-field-well-by-jul-2026", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-30T14:11:21.462968Z", "published_at": "2024-06-03T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T19:48:15.628339Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-03T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-03T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "βοΈ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24789, "title": "Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?", "created_at": "2024-05-30T14:11:21.462968Z", "open_time": "2024-06-03T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-06T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-06T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Kaskida is an offshore oil field located in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), first discovered [in 2006](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-announces-significant-discovery-in-the-deepwater-gulf-of-mexi.html). With *c.* 3 billion barrels of oil it is one of the largest discovered. However, the Kaskida is an ultra-high pressure (UHP) and ultra-high temperature (UHT) oil field which makes exploiting the development challenging. \n\nUHP / UHT fields require blow-out preventers capable preventing the release of hydrocarbons into the ocean in the event of loss of well control (i.e., a \"blow-out\"). Indeed, UHP fields require highly complex and massive drillships which are both capable of reaching to the seabed extreme depths, as well as dealing with the pressures. Today, this technology exists:\n\n- Oil & Gas equipment provider APL NOV has successfully developed and manufactured a [\"20K\" blow-out preventer (BOP)](https://www.nov.com/about/news/20k-bops-will-revolutionize-subsea-pressure-control) and\n\n- Transocean has constructed an eighth-generation ultra-deepwater [drillship](https://www.deepwater.com//documents/RigSpecs/Deepwater%20Atlas.pdf) equipped with the aforementioned BOP.\n\nAside from technology, BP have a tenuous history in the GoM, perhaps most notably due to the infamous Deepwater Horizon [disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill) which resulted in the largest oil spill in history, and possibly the worst environmental disaster in history. The aftermath of Deepwater Horizon resulted in years of oil production stagnation in the GoM.\n\nJavier Blas, for Bloomberg, summarises the challenges BP face in the development of Kaskida:\n\n>BP, in particular, has a lot to prove. Its CEO may be excited about developing the Kaskida oilfield, but environmentalists, climate activists and left-leaning US lawmakers are unlikely to be enthusiastic about the prospect of the British oil major drilling a complex and challenging well in the Gulf of Mexico of all places. Everyone deserves a second chance, but US federal regulators must keep a close eye on the future of Kaskida and all other new Paleogene oil fields. BP should focus on convincing everyone that itβs up to the task, rather than simply trumpeting the riches that await beneath the bottom of the sea.\n\n-----------------------\n\nWill BP successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, British Petroleum (BP) successfully drills a production well at the Kaskida oil field according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this event does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**. \n\n\"*Success*\" is defined as BP having produced at least 1 barrel (bbl) of oil from the field.", "fine_print": "- If BP has its stake in Kaskida reduced to <50% (at time of writing their stake is Kaskida [is](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/upstream-major-projects.html) 100%) the question shall resolve **No**.\n\n- For clarity, Kaskida is located in Keathley Canyon block 292 of the United States sector of the Gulf of Mexico, 250 miles (400 km) south-west of New Orleans, Louisiana (according to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaskida_Oil_Field))", "post_id": 24789, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763126169.832, "end_time": 1764067567.553, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763126169.832, "end_time": 1764067567.553, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.011072289728580096 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0186679699572716, 2.8227949350704264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288800.628428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288800.628428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9339714507569454, 0.06602854924305461 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Kaskida is an offshore oil field located in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), first discovered [in 2006](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-announces-significant-discovery-in-the-deepwater-gulf-of-mexi.html). With *c.* 3 billion barrels of oil it is one of the largest discovered. However, the Kaskida is an ultra-high pressure (UHP) and ultra-high temperature (UHT) oil field which makes exploiting the development challenging. \n\nUHP / UHT fields require blow-out preventers capable preventing the release of hydrocarbons into the ocean in the event of loss of well control (i.e., a \"blow-out\"). Indeed, UHP fields require highly complex and massive drillships which are both capable of reaching to the seabed extreme depths, as well as dealing with the pressures. Today, this technology exists:\n\n- Oil & Gas equipment provider APL NOV has successfully developed and manufactured a [\"20K\" blow-out preventer (BOP)](https://www.nov.com/about/news/20k-bops-will-revolutionize-subsea-pressure-control) and\n\n- Transocean has constructed an eighth-generation ultra-deepwater [drillship](https://www.deepwater.com//documents/RigSpecs/Deepwater%20Atlas.pdf) equipped with the aforementioned BOP.\n\nAside from technology, BP have a tenuous history in the GoM, perhaps most notably due to the infamous Deepwater Horizon [disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill) which resulted in the largest oil spill in history, and possibly the worst environmental disaster in history. The aftermath of Deepwater Horizon resulted in years of oil production stagnation in the GoM.\n\nJavier Blas, for Bloomberg, summarises the challenges BP face in the development of Kaskida:\n\n>BP, in particular, has a lot to prove. Its CEO may be excited about developing the Kaskida oilfield, but environmentalists, climate activists and left-leaning US lawmakers are unlikely to be enthusiastic about the prospect of the British oil major drilling a complex and challenging well in the Gulf of Mexico of all places. Everyone deserves a second chance, but US federal regulators must keep a close eye on the future of Kaskida and all other new Paleogene oil fields. BP should focus on convincing everyone that itβs up to the task, rather than simply trumpeting the riches that await beneath the bottom of the sea.\n\n-----------------------\n\nWill BP successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?" }, { "id": 24753, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "short_title": "ISS Decision for $57b Musk Pay Package", "url_title": "ISS Decision for $57b Musk Pay Package", "slug": "iss-decision-for-57b-musk-pay-package", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-28T21:37:26.756252Z", "published_at": "2024-05-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.618896Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "π Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup π", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "π Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup π", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 24753, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "created_at": "2024-05-28T21:37:26.756252Z", "open_time": "2024-05-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-31T19:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-31T19:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Teslaβs board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Teslaβs incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as βcrapβ.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) releases a statement explicitly advising Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's pay package at the 2024 Tesla shareholder meeting OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk to the Tesla board of directors. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If no statement is released by ISS prior to the [2024 Tesla Stockholder Meeting](https://www.tesla.com/2024shareholdermeeting) being held, the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThe 2024 Tesla Stockholder Meeting is currently scheduled for June 13, 2024. If it is postponed beyond June 20, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 24753, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717163600.587925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717163600.587925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8242973727682523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654257108098227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3008905043046079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3210264034531998, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8184226700359247, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.9640037134733538, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.09423309768492599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807699722218997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.870037778779997 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.34594706227123107, "coverage": 0.03598860495381927, "baseline_score": 1.7815195336303478, "spot_peer_score": 27.614849619691892, "peer_archived_score": 0.34594706227123107, "baseline_archived_score": 1.7815195336303478, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.614849619691892 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717116166.461355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717116166.461355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30129988471274605, 0.698700115287254 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Teslaβs board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Teslaβs incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as βcrapβ.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)" }, { "id": 24628, "title": "Will the Communist Party of China continuously control the Chinese government until the year 2100?", "short_title": "CCP in 2100", "url_title": "CCP in 2100", "slug": "ccp-in-2100", "author_id": 182936, "author_username": "Arkhos", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-26T21:29:27.313860Z", "published_at": "2024-06-01T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T06:14:41.274607Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-01T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-30T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-01T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24628, "title": "Will the Communist Party of China continuously control the Chinese government until the year 2100?", "created_at": "2024-05-26T21:29:27.313860Z", "open_time": "2024-06-01T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-30T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-30T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The **Communist Party of China** has controlled all of Mainland China since 1950, Hong Kong since 1997, and Macau since 1999. The only part of \"China\" it does not control is Taiwan, which is controlled by the Republic of China. As of 2024, it is stable, but anti-party sentiment is growing, especially among the youth.<br /><br />\nMany Western experts warn of a **population crash** that has the potential to nearly halve China's 2024 population by 2100. There is also a risk of a **GDP plateau**, similar to what Japan experienced in the 1990s. These crises, coupled with growing mistrust of the CCP following the **overreactive COVID-19 lockdowns**, have eroded party trust in much of China's populace.\n\nSee Also\n\nThe Diplomat: [Chinaβs Economy Might Be Down, But Donβt Expect Regime Collapse](https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/chinas-economy-might-be-down-but-dont-expect-regime-collapse/)\n\nForeign Policy: [When Will Chinaβs Government Collapse?](https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/13/china_communist_party_collapse_downfall/)", "resolution_criteria": "If, **continuously, from now until December 31, 2099**, the Communist Party of China, or its official successor party, fulfills all of the below criteria:\n\n- The CCP, its successor party, or a *de facto* affiliated independent (akin to Vladimir Putin with the United Russia party) holds the position of **highest executive office**, such as head of state or equivalent (this does not include purely ceremonial offices). The majority of credible news outlets must report them as the **head of state, head of government, or any other equivalent highest-ranking executive position** of China.\n- The party controls a **supermajority (66%+)** of the National People's Congress, or whatever legislatures succeed it (this includes minor parties and independents in coalition with the CCP). If China develops a multicameral legislature by 2100, the CCP or its successor party must control a **supermajority in all legislatures**.\n\nThen the question resolves YES.\n\nIf, at any point between now and 2100, any of the following occur:<br />\n\n- The CCP or its successor party fails to fulfill the \"YES\" criteria (brief vacancies or dissolutions do not count if they are resolved within 1 month).\n- \"China\", as defined by the below definition, **ceases to exist**.\n\nThen the question resolves NO.<br />\n\nNote that even if China introduces democratic reforms, but none of the NO criteria are met by 2100, the question still resolves YES.\n\n\"China\" is defined as any state that controls more than **80% of the population** that lives in sum of all territory that, as of 2024, is *de facto* controlled by either the People's Republic of China (including Hong Kong and Macau) or the Republic of China (commonly known as Taiwan).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 24628, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760940871.039847, "end_time": 1955759114.285691, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760940871.039847, "end_time": 1955759114.285691, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.28792911792826664 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290163.28065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290163.28065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.84415401183328, 0.15584598816672002 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The **Communist Party of China** has controlled all of Mainland China since 1950, Hong Kong since 1997, and Macau since 1999. The only part of \"China\" it does not control is Taiwan, which is controlled by the Republic of China. As of 2024, it is stable, but anti-party sentiment is growing, especially among the youth.<br /><br />\nMany Western experts warn of a **population crash** that has the potential to nearly halve China's 2024 population by 2100. There is also a risk of a **GDP plateau**, similar to what Japan experienced in the 1990s. These crises, coupled with growing mistrust of the CCP following the **overreactive COVID-19 lockdowns**, have eroded party trust in much of China's populace.\n\nSee Also\n\nThe Diplomat: [Chinaβs Economy Might Be Down, But Donβt Expect Regime Collapse](https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/chinas-economy-might-be-down-but-dont-expect-regime-collapse/)\n\nForeign Policy: [When Will Chinaβs Government Collapse?](https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/13/china_communist_party_collapse_downfall/)" }, { "id": 24622, "title": "Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?", "short_title": "Rishi Sunak to not win seat in 2024 GE?", "url_title": "Rishi Sunak to not win seat in 2024 GE?", "slug": "rishi-sunak-to-not-win-seat-in-2024-ge", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-25T22:12:06.666461Z", "published_at": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.866861Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24622, "title": "Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?", "created_at": "2024-05-25T22:12:06.666461Z", "open_time": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-02T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-02T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Rishi Sunak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rishi_Sunak?useskin=vector), born 12 May 1980, is a British politician who has served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. Sunak has been Member of Parliament for [Richmond (Yorks)](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector) since 2015.\n\nIn the most recent general election in 2019, [Sunak won his seat](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector#Elections_in_the_2010s) with 63.6% of the vote; the nearest competitor was the Labour Party candidate on 16.4% of the vote. \n\nSince 2019 the Conservative Party, in power since 2010, has seen a significant decline in its support according to [opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector#Graphical_summary); and as of late May 2024, it trails the opposition Labour Party by around 20 points. \n\n[Sunak's personal approval rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) has been in negative territory for nearly his entire tenure as Prime Minister, and is [among the worst for any British Conservative or Labour leader](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunaks-satisfaction-falls-equal-worst-ever-ipsos-rating-conservative-or-labour-leader) in Ipsos data going back to 1978.\n\nIn May 2024 [Sunak called a snap general election](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69050450), to be held on July 4.\n\nSunak is expected to contest the constituency of [Richmond and Northallerton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_and_Northallerton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in the July 4 election, which was created following the [2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Periodic_Review_of_Westminster_constituencies?useskin=vector).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if for any reason Rishi Sunak fails to be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK general election.\n\nIf Sunak is elected as a Member of Parliament for any constituency in the July 4 2024 UK general election, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nResolution should cite [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports, or an official announcement from the returning officer of the constituency in which Sunak is a candidate (if he is a candidate in any constituency).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 24622, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720081032.049797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.252 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720081032.049797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.252 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.748, 0.252 ], "means": [ 0.26568244911043976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.08303507941585661, 0.07347534265239528, 0.0, 0.12605111094439408, 0.0, 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"spot_peer_score": 40.89903995833244, "peer_archived_score": 30.335920078117013, "baseline_archived_score": 71.37716926498801, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.89903995833244 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720081032.092625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720081032.092625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9079932567541854, 0.09200674324581459 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 211, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Rishi Sunak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rishi_Sunak?useskin=vector), born 12 May 1980, is a British politician who has served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. Sunak has been Member of Parliament for [Richmond (Yorks)](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector) since 2015.\n\nIn the most recent general election in 2019, [Sunak won his seat](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector#Elections_in_the_2010s) with 63.6% of the vote; the nearest competitor was the Labour Party candidate on 16.4% of the vote. \n\nSince 2019 the Conservative Party, in power since 2010, has seen a significant decline in its support according to [opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector#Graphical_summary); and as of late May 2024, it trails the opposition Labour Party by around 20 points. \n\n[Sunak's personal approval rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) has been in negative territory for nearly his entire tenure as Prime Minister, and is [among the worst for any British Conservative or Labour leader](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunaks-satisfaction-falls-equal-worst-ever-ipsos-rating-conservative-or-labour-leader) in Ipsos data going back to 1978.\n\nIn May 2024 [Sunak called a snap general election](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69050450), to be held on July 4.\n\nSunak is expected to contest the constituency of [Richmond and Northallerton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_and_Northallerton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in the July 4 election, which was created following the [2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Periodic_Review_of_Westminster_constituencies?useskin=vector)." }, { "id": 24620, "title": "Will China officially allow accessing and editing Wikipedia before January 1, 2030?", "short_title": "China allows editing Wikipedia by 2030", "url_title": "China allows editing Wikipedia by 2030", "slug": "china-allows-editing-wikipedia-by-2030", "author_id": 174826, "author_username": "chipm", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-25T09:45:27.860238Z", "published_at": "2024-05-29T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T19:41:14.748487Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-29T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-29T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "π§βπ€βπ§", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "π»", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24620, "title": "Will China officially allow accessing and editing Wikipedia before January 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2024-05-25T09:45:27.860238Z", "open_time": "2024-05-29T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2015, [China blocked the Chinese Wikipedia](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/we-had-our-arguments-but_b_7610130). In 2019, the [block was extended to all Wikipedia editions](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/15/china-bans-wikipedia-all-languages/).\n\nFor further background and context please see:\n\n[Wikipedia: Wikimedia censorship in mainland China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikimedia_censorship_in_mainland_China)\n\n[Slate 2019: Why China Blocked Wikipedia in All Languages | \nHint: Thereβs a big anniversary coming up.](https://slate.com/technology/2019/05/wikipedia-china-block-censorship-tiananmen-square.html)\n\n[ZME Science: Why China (and other countries) are banning Wikipedia](https://www.zmescience.com/science/why-china-blocked-wikipedia-0423523/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if, before January 1 2030, the People's Republic of China implements any officially sanctioned method to access and edit at least one Wikipedia edition. The access method might range from full unrestricted access open to everyone to restricted approaches such as a widely available official proxy.", "fine_print": "* Access to Wikipedia must include the possibility of editing. An official read-only mirror will not resolve the question positively.\n* An access method that restricts access to a subset of Wikipedia pages will still qualify if editing is available.\n* Lax enforcement of VPN bans will not resolve this question positively. Access to Wikipedia must be possible under an official policy.\n* Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are excluded from the resolution criteria.\n* The official access policy must potentially cover, at least, 50% of China's population. It would not resolve positively if it is implemented on a smaller territorial scale such as a single Special Economic Zone, or narrow demographics such as Government officials.\n* An access method that requires registration with the Government (e.g. a Government-run Wikipedia proxy) will qualify to resolve this question positively if all registrations are approved by default, or credible sources report that the majority of applications are approved. The question shall be resolved as ambiguous if this cannot be determined.\n* An access method that is run by a private company will still qualify if it has a Government license or credible sources report that the program runs in compliance with Chinese regulations.\n* If, by 2030, current territory of mainland China breaks up, the question will apply to the territory that credible sources acknowledge as the successor of the People's Republic of China. If that cannot be determined unambiguously, the question will be annulled.\n* Unblocking Wikipedia in other language versions than Chinese will count.", "post_id": 24620, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761421264.152884, "end_time": 1769889694.65, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.033 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0478384718 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761421264.152884, "end_time": 1769889694.65, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.033 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0478384718 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.967, 0.033 ], "means": [ 0.07838570839629341 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.5440393206428573, 0.0, 1.281408144360278, 0.7814421704938572, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289846.95176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289846.95176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9790747074107407, 0.020925292589259292 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2015, [China blocked the Chinese Wikipedia](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/we-had-our-arguments-but_b_7610130). In 2019, the [block was extended to all Wikipedia editions](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/15/china-bans-wikipedia-all-languages/).\n\nFor further background and context please see:\n\n[Wikipedia: Wikimedia censorship in mainland China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikimedia_censorship_in_mainland_China)\n\n[Slate 2019: Why China Blocked Wikipedia in All Languages | \nHint: Thereβs a big anniversary coming up.](https://slate.com/technology/2019/05/wikipedia-china-block-censorship-tiananmen-square.html)\n\n[ZME Science: Why China (and other countries) are banning Wikipedia](https://www.zmescience.com/science/why-china-blocked-wikipedia-0423523/)" }, { "id": 24330, "title": "Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?", "short_title": "Driverless cars in Las Vegas in 2029", "url_title": "Driverless cars in Las Vegas in 2029", "slug": "driverless-cars-in-las-vegas-in-2029", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-24T04:48:53.364504Z", "published_at": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T08:32:38.935306Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-05-28T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-05-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "π€", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "βοΈ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "π€", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24330, "title": "Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?", "created_at": "2024-05-24T04:48:53.364504Z", "open_time": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-02T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-02T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-05-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-05-28T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-05-28T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [original Long Bet](https://longbets.org/712/) should resolve negatively based on the stated resolution criteria, but this question is rerun of it where the deadline is extended 5 years so that it resolves on the US Memorial Day of 2029. Resolution criteria will be same as the original question, but with a few things clarified that concerns the affordability and accessibility of the system.\n\nMetaculus [has a question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-in-las-vegas-by-2024/) based on the original long bet.\n\nThe author of this question assesses that the development of self-driving cars encountered numerous difficulties because the current state-of-the-art in artificial intelligence is simply incapable negotiating the complex social and spatial environment without remote assistance, the exorbitant hardware involved such as high-end computers and lidar arrays, and the billions of miles required to validate such a system as being safer than the median human driver. Perhaps there would be some breakthrough in the next five years that would render this technology more scalable and accessible to the general public in five years so that a tourist in Las Vegas will have access to the technology by Memorial Day 2029. So far (as of Memorial Day 2024), Waymo has a limited robotaxi service in Phoenix, Arizona and San Francisco, California, where the former is open to the general public without a waitlist.", "resolution_criteria": "(Resolution Criteria largely copied-and-pasted from the original Long Bet terms.)\n\nThis question resolves positively if by Memorial Day 2029, there is a commercially available autonomous vehicle that is able to pick someone up at a Las Vegas strip hotel and take them to a destination off-strip in downtown Las Vegas, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nQuestion will resolve positively early if before the resolution, there is a vehicle or a service that fulfills the resolution criteria.\n\nThere are a few key clauses: \n\n1. the vehicle must be FULLY autonomous and never require human control other than to enter a pickup and destination address. Specifically, the passenger could be blindfolded or otherwise incapacitated at the time of pickup and the vehicle must still be able to function, the occupants will not ever be required to take control. \n2. the vehicle must be commercially available- no prototypes or restricted-access pilot projects \n3. the vehicle or service must be \"affordable\" as elucidated in the fine-print\n4. the operational area of the vehicle must be broad enough to encompass both the Las Vegas strip (a chaotic and high-risk environment challenging for autonomous vehicles to navigate), and downtown Las Vegas (a more risk-averse and potentially hostile regulatory climate due to concerns of residents).\n5. In certain circumstances a remote pilot may be engaged, but the entire testing of the bet cannot be one of these exceptions.", "fine_print": "\"Commercially availability\" means that, for a robotaxi service, there are no waitlists that require the user to wait for more than one week and no requirement of a non-disclosure agreement. Any tourist should be able to use the service.\n\nFor a consumer vehicle, that anyone with enough money can purchase the vehicle and subscription service.\n\n\"Affordability\" means that for the first robotaxi ride that satisfies the resolution criteria, the entire cost of ride has to cost less than $65 (nominal). This can include a fee to get on a short waitlist in order to have the privilege of using the service during the time of resolution. \n\nFor a consumer vehicle, the vehicle has to cost no more than $100,000 (nominal) and have an autonomous software subscription cost of no greater than $250 a month, although that can require the customer to pay for a subscription for one whole year.\n\nThe autonomous service may occasionally use a remote pilot, but it should not be the expectation that there would be remote intervention during a trip that satisfies the resolution. A ratio of one remote operator for every five autonomous vehicles is satisfactory. There would probably not be definitive evidence to determine the exact ratio, but the question author expects that the requirement of \"affordability\" and \"commercial availability\" to address this, since a \"commercially available\" and \"affordable\" service would presumably attract many customers, that paying the wages for many remote operators would be financially unsustainable for an \"affordable\" service. Of course, the service can be temporarily provided at a loss to circumvent that. However, if the \"affordability\" and \"commercial availability\" requirements are satisfied, then the question can resolve negatively only if there is a \"preponderance of evidence\" gleaned from credible sources that there is extensive use of remote operators for the service. This evidence can be the testimony of engineers, remote operators, or present or former executives to a news outlet stating that that the number of remote operators per operational vehicle is greater than 0.20.\n\n\"By Memorial Day 2029\" means before Tuesday May 29, 2029.", "post_id": 24330, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762596742.941631, "end_time": 1764392474.736669, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.8657422662 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762596742.941631, "end_time": 1764392474.736669, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.8657422662 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13425773379999995, 0.8657422662 ], "means": [ 0.6943352531826934 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8805324516648863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.787237374086608, 0.0, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288695.450053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288695.450053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.25524938588883417, 0.7447506141111658 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [original Long Bet](https://longbets.org/712/) should resolve negatively based on the stated resolution criteria, but this question is rerun of it where the deadline is extended 5 years so that it resolves on the US Memorial Day of 2029. Resolution criteria will be same as the original question, but with a few things clarified that concerns the affordability and accessibility of the system.\n\nMetaculus [has a question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-in-las-vegas-by-2024/) based on the original long bet.\n\nThe author of this question assesses that the development of self-driving cars encountered numerous difficulties because the current state-of-the-art in artificial intelligence is simply incapable negotiating the complex social and spatial environment without remote assistance, the exorbitant hardware involved such as high-end computers and lidar arrays, and the billions of miles required to validate such a system as being safer than the median human driver. Perhaps there would be some breakthrough in the next five years that would render this technology more scalable and accessible to the general public in five years so that a tourist in Las Vegas will have access to the technology by Memorial Day 2029. So far (as of Memorial Day 2024), Waymo has a limited robotaxi service in Phoenix, Arizona and San Francisco, California, where the former is open to the general public without a waitlist." }, { "id": 24329, "title": "Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "short_title": "May-June 2024_Taiwan-China_Conflict Deaths", "url_title": "May-June 2024_Taiwan-China_Conflict Deaths", "slug": "may-june-2024_taiwan-china_conflict-deaths", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-23T23:38:53.443930Z", "published_at": "2024-05-24T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.567952Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-24T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-06T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-06T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-24T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 109, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "π Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup π", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "π Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup π", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24329, "title": "Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-23T23:38:53.443930Z", "open_time": "2024-05-24T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-25T20:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-25T20:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-06T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-06T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China has escalated military tensions with Taiwan, launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. \n\nInitial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 6th, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China or Taiwan as a result of armed conflict between the two parties.", "fine_print": "* Auxilary forces under the control of either government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.\n* \"Armed conflict\" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and Taiwan. This does not include accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "post_id": 24329, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717615955.23436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717615955.23436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008691658505402123 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.11193417098611, 5.671758301940018, 0.945617641759379, 0.03958900075632016, 0.0, 0.0020078894321104556, 0.020591683781788054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07681935634064092, 0.0, 0.27938762653101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23685514934120233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.945605083024163e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.7473240444587594, "coverage": 0.9994357249195206, "baseline_score": 99.26051308473333, "spot_peer_score": 3.955071293019014, "peer_archived_score": 1.7473240444587594, "baseline_archived_score": 99.26051308473333, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.955071293019014 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717615955.272553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717615955.272553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 202, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China has escalated military tensions with Taiwan, launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. \n\nInitial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets." }, { "id": 24321, "title": "Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "2024 Atlantic Ocean Record Temperature", "url_title": "2024 Atlantic Ocean Record Temperature", "slug": "2024-atlantic-ocean-record-temperature", "author_id": 100333, "author_username": "Wineclaw", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-23T12:24:52.510100Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": 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"2024-05-23T12:24:52.510100Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T23:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-07T23:02:59.041033Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-15T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends) \n\nThis record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing record or near-record warm sea surface temperatures for late May.](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/)\n\nAs of this writing on June 24, 2024, the daily mean sea surface temperature for the North Atlantic has been on par with 2023's temperature and above the 2Ο level of the 1982-2011 mean.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [\"Daily Sea Surface Temperature, North Atlantic\" chart](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)βaccessible when choosing \"North Atlantic\" from the \"Area Selection\" dropdown menu at the linkβshows the 2024 line graph surpassing 2023's peak temperature record of 25.4 C set on August 31, 2023, for any day before October 1, 2024. The question will resolve when the data for September 30 is first available on the chart and accessed by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "ClimateReanalyzer's chart runs on a 1-to-2 day lag. Secondly, all data is preliminary for two weeks. For the sake of this question, we are using the preliminary data for the resolution.", "post_id": 24321, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726406283.961158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726406283.961158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.011149525473255956 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.76993602322745, 5.359646834426144, 0.4294971480926094, 0.005025223583386938, 0.01044791386579032, 0.33004834436101843, 0.0, 0.1654401596874866, 0.031211606990649093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012845637017849833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07091040125726912, 0.0, 0.00022660438791516336, 0.0, 0.0026847467106792403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001704260857512597, 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110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726406284.014984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 823, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends) \n\nThis record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing record or near-record warm sea surface temperatures for late May.](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/)\n\nAs of this writing on June 24, 2024, the daily mean sea surface temperature for the North Atlantic has been on par with 2023's temperature and above the 2Ο level of the 1982-2011 mean." }, { "id": 24302, "title": "Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "50 Kenyan Police in Haiti Before June 2024?", "url_title": "50 Kenyan Police in Haiti Before June 2024?", "slug": "50-kenyan-police-in-haiti-before-june-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-22T19:01:53.999182Z", "published_at": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.485102Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", 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"options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Violence and unrest have been on the rise in Haiti, resulting in former Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry being blocked from returning to his country and eventually resigning in March of 2023. A [multinational mission](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/05/1149831) to provide security assistance has been in the works since 2023. Forces from Kenya's [General Service Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Service_Unit_(Kenya)) (GSU), a branch of the [Kenya Police Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Police) are [planned to deploy to Haiti](https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/green-light-for-kenyan-police-boots-on-the-ground-in-haiti/) as part of this effort. However, the deployment of the Kenyan police has faced several setbacks, including [legal challenges](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-lawyers-ask-court-hold-government-contempt-planned-police-deployment-2024-05-17/) and [political opposition](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/28/kenya-plan-deploy-police-haiti) in Kenya.\n\nOn May 22, 2024, it was [reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/americas/kenya-haiti-delegation-intl-latam/index.html) that Kenyan officials had arrived in Haiti to assess readiness to receive the Kenyan police forces, who are scheduled to arrive by the end of the month. However, [recent reporting has also suggested the potential for additional delays](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/kenya-police-deployment-haiti-faces-130709387.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after May 22, 2024, and before June 1, 2024, credible sources report that at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel have arrived in Haiti.", "fine_print": "* In the event that credible sources report that Kenyan police have arrived in Haiti but a number is not given and there is no indication as to the size of the deployment (such as \"hundreds\", \"over 100\", or \"approximately 30\") the question will be **annulled**.\n* If reporting is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may use its judgment to resolve the question or resolve the question as **ambiguous**.", "post_id": 24302, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717182339.803643, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717182339.803643, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0071515740248481105 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.857736003400078, 3.7205064868705824, 0.0, 0.10860410592794534, 0.30999457281726844, 0.08916026500184708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012080067640697419, 0.0, 0.22310367527874267, 0.0, 0.003399429418515302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016348593756712248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00562727195348949, 0.0, 0.0044440085329729906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002473836920010813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.744669053310926, "coverage": 0.9999908237369636, "baseline_score": 86.94220441054038, "spot_peer_score": 6.395803306909399, "peer_archived_score": 6.744669053310926, "baseline_archived_score": 86.94220441054038, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.395803306909399 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717182339.84295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717182339.84295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 161, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Violence and unrest have been on the rise in Haiti, resulting in former Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry being blocked from returning to his country and eventually resigning in March of 2023. A [multinational mission](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/05/1149831) to provide security assistance has been in the works since 2023. Forces from Kenya's [General Service Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Service_Unit_(Kenya)) (GSU), a branch of the [Kenya Police Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Police) are [planned to deploy to Haiti](https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/green-light-for-kenyan-police-boots-on-the-ground-in-haiti/) as part of this effort. However, the deployment of the Kenyan police has faced several setbacks, including [legal challenges](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-lawyers-ask-court-hold-government-contempt-planned-police-deployment-2024-05-17/) and [political opposition](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/28/kenya-plan-deploy-police-haiti) in Kenya.\n\nOn May 22, 2024, it was [reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/americas/kenya-haiti-delegation-intl-latam/index.html) that Kenyan officials had arrived in Haiti to assess readiness to receive the Kenyan police forces, who are scheduled to arrive by the end of the month. However, [recent reporting has also suggested the potential for additional delays](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/kenya-police-deployment-haiti-faces-130709387.html)." }, { "id": 24194, "title": "Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?", "short_title": "House: will the GOP have the most votes?", "url_title": "House: will the GOP have the most votes?", "slug": "house-will-the-gop-have-the-most-votes", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-20T17:25:56.056779Z", "published_at": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.930068Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-18T17:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "π³οΈ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24194, "title": "Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?", "created_at": "2024-05-20T17:25:56.056779Z", "open_time": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-18T17:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-18T17:09:25.367936Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[[Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections)]\n\nAll 50 U.S. States will vote on November 5, 2024 to elect the 435 members of the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress; seats are allocated to States in proportion to population, but always at least one. If the delegation has two members or more, States are divided into single-member districts. Most states elect their representatives by the plurality method, where voters cast a vote for one candidate and the one with the highest number of votes wins.\n\nThe U.S. has a strong two-party system, with the Republicans (GOP) and Democrats taking center stage in the country's political life and other parties having little influence.\n\nOf the past 10 House elections, in 3 of them the party winning the popular vote across all districts did not win the majority of House seats:\n\n| Election | Popular vote won by GOP | Seats won by GOP (out of 435) |\n|----------|-------------------------|------------------------|\n| 2022 | 50.6% | 222 |\n| 2020 | 47.2% | 213 |\n| 2018 | 44.8% | 199 |\n| 2016 | 49.1%* | 241* |\n| 2014 | 51.2% | 247 |\n| 2012 | 47.7%* | 234* |\n| 2010 | 51.7% | 242 |\n| 2008 | 42.6% | 178 |\n| 2006 | 44.3% | 202 |\n| 2004 | 49.4%* | 232* |\n\n*Election in which the popular vote winner did not achieve a House majority.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if the total vote for GOP candidates for the House of Representatives in the 2024 US elections is the highest of any party, and NO otherwise. Credible sources can be used if the outcome is clear, but in case of doubts and disputes the ultimate official source is the [U.S. House of Representatives](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/) website.", "fine_print": "Some states have somewhat different election methods, like jungle primaries, two-round runoffs and instant runoff by ranked choice ballot. To make resolution simple, this question just follows the methods used by the House to aggregate nationwide votes; however, since the last day of voting is potentially December 3 due to runoffs in Georgia, that is when the question closes.\n\nIf the GOP is tied for the most votes, this question resolves as NO.", "post_id": 24194, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732463399.007891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732463399.007891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9799904825227074 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.028326150796870744, 0.051118274222999596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1148171974242466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773927070098371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1011216878911307, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 10.155565619240082 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -7.036233893307482, "peer_score": 7.145629865560039, "coverage": 0.9994573405660185, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994573405660185, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": -7.036233893307482, "peer_archived_score": 7.145629865560039, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289553.633874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289553.633874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3566576710373639, 0.6433423289626361 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[[Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections)]\n\nAll 50 U.S. States will vote on November 5, 2024 to elect the 435 members of the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress; seats are allocated to States in proportion to population, but always at least one. If the delegation has two members or more, States are divided into single-member districts. Most states elect their representatives by the plurality method, where voters cast a vote for one candidate and the one with the highest number of votes wins.\n\nThe U.S. has a strong two-party system, with the Republicans (GOP) and Democrats taking center stage in the country's political life and other parties having little influence.\n\nOf the past 10 House elections, in 3 of them the party winning the popular vote across all districts did not win the majority of House seats:\n\n| Election | Popular vote won by GOP | Seats won by GOP (out of 435) |\n|----------|-------------------------|------------------------|\n| 2022 | 50.6% | 222 |\n| 2020 | 47.2% | 213 |\n| 2018 | 44.8% | 199 |\n| 2016 | 49.1%* | 241* |\n| 2014 | 51.2% | 247 |\n| 2012 | 47.7%* | 234* |\n| 2010 | 51.7% | 242 |\n| 2008 | 42.6% | 178 |\n| 2006 | 44.3% | 202 |\n| 2004 | 49.4%* | 232* |\n\n*Election in which the popular vote winner did not achieve a House majority." }, { "id": 24037, "title": "Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections?", "short_title": "Int'l Seabed Auth. July Election Outcome", "url_title": "Int'l Seabed Auth. July Election Outcome", "slug": "intl-seabed-auth-july-election-outcome", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-19T12:59:11.290866Z", "published_at": "2024-05-26T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.511515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-26T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-02T14:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-02T14:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-26T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "π¬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24037, "title": "Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections?", "created_at": "2024-05-19T12:59:11.290866Z", "open_time": "2024-05-26T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-29T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-29T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-02T14:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-02T14:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-02T14:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Seabed Authority (ISA)](https://www.isa.org.jm/about-isa/) describes itself as:\n\n>an autonomous international organization established under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 1994 Agreement relating to the Implementation of Part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.\n\nIt describes itself as:\n\n>[an] organization through which States Parties to UNCLOS organize and control all mineral-resources-related activities in the Area for the benefit of humankind as a whole.\n\nThis means the ISA controls regulations on [Deep Sea Mining (DSM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_sea_mining) which has slowly become a massively contentious issue between nations, NGOs, and companies due to the fact that, whilst DSM will potentially allow mining companies to access vast amount of minerals critical in the manufacturing of renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, and batteries, those who oppose DSM see it resulting in long-term harm to ecosystems already at risk due to environmental deviations arising from global warming. \n\nThe Secretary-General incumbent is the British national Michael Lodge who is seeking his third term in the upcoming July elections. Tood Woody, via Bloomberg describes his history at the ISA:\n\n>Lodgeβs candidacy emerged Sunday in a diplomatic note from ISA member state Kiribati, a small South Pacific island nation that announced it would sponsor Lodgeβs nomination. Candidates for secretary-general are usually sponsored by their country of citizenship: The UK sponsored Lodgeβs first term as secretary-general (though his election to a second term, which happened under a βsilent procedureβ during the Covid-19 pandemic, is less clear). Carvalho, an official with UN Environment Programme in Nairobi, was likewise put forth by Brazilβs delegate in March.\n\nNotably, the UK was a signatory of a [memorandum](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-supports-moratorium-on-deep-sea-mining-to-protect-ocean-and-marine-ecosystems) against DSM. However, as noted in the above article, Lodge has found support of island nations - such as Kiribati - who stand to benefit immensely from DSM.\n\nOne DSM company - [The Metals Company (TMC)](https://metals.co) - has been a major supporter of DSM and has carried out extensive environmental studies supporting its position of allowing the practice. TMC has also carried out [pilot studies](https://metals.co/nori/) in the Clarion-Clipper Zone (CCZ) with Allseas' dedicated Deep Sea Mining Vessel \"*Hidden Gem*\" which were successful.\n\nSee also Southern Fried Science: [International Seabed Authority gears up for a leadership challenge at the July meeting.](https://www.southernfriedscience.com/international-seabed-authority-gears-up-for-a-leadership-challenge-at-the-july-meeting/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the International Seabed Authority (ISA) and/or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the incumbent Secretary-General Michael Lodge has been elected for a third term in the July elections. Otherwise it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "- If Lodge does not stand in the July elections, for any reason, the question will resolve **No**.\n\n- If the elections are moved or postponed until after July, the reorganised election result will be used to resolve the question.", "post_id": 24037, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719623114.105868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719623114.105868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.5676070905357959 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34012196105922055, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.8526534612912595, "coverage": 0.9971417873215048, "baseline_score": -124.13927496930876, "spot_peer_score": -30.038693021446512, "peer_archived_score": -0.8526534612912595, "baseline_archived_score": -124.13927496930876, "spot_peer_archived_score": -30.038693021446512 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719820295.054557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719820295.054557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8829007151520849, 0.11709928484791515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Seabed Authority (ISA)](https://www.isa.org.jm/about-isa/) describes itself as:\n\n>an autonomous international organization established under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 1994 Agreement relating to the Implementation of Part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.\n\nIt describes itself as:\n\n>[an] organization through which States Parties to UNCLOS organize and control all mineral-resources-related activities in the Area for the benefit of humankind as a whole.\n\nThis means the ISA controls regulations on [Deep Sea Mining (DSM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_sea_mining) which has slowly become a massively contentious issue between nations, NGOs, and companies due to the fact that, whilst DSM will potentially allow mining companies to access vast amount of minerals critical in the manufacturing of renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, and batteries, those who oppose DSM see it resulting in long-term harm to ecosystems already at risk due to environmental deviations arising from global warming. \n\nThe Secretary-General incumbent is the British national Michael Lodge who is seeking his third term in the upcoming July elections. Tood Woody, via Bloomberg describes his history at the ISA:\n\n>Lodgeβs candidacy emerged Sunday in a diplomatic note from ISA member state Kiribati, a small South Pacific island nation that announced it would sponsor Lodgeβs nomination. Candidates for secretary-general are usually sponsored by their country of citizenship: The UK sponsored Lodgeβs first term as secretary-general (though his election to a second term, which happened under a βsilent procedureβ during the Covid-19 pandemic, is less clear). Carvalho, an official with UN Environment Programme in Nairobi, was likewise put forth by Brazilβs delegate in March.\n\nNotably, the UK was a signatory of a [memorandum](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-supports-moratorium-on-deep-sea-mining-to-protect-ocean-and-marine-ecosystems) against DSM. However, as noted in the above article, Lodge has found support of island nations - such as Kiribati - who stand to benefit immensely from DSM.\n\nOne DSM company - [The Metals Company (TMC)](https://metals.co) - has been a major supporter of DSM and has carried out extensive environmental studies supporting its position of allowing the practice. TMC has also carried out [pilot studies](https://metals.co/nori/) in the Clarion-Clipper Zone (CCZ) with Allseas' dedicated Deep Sea Mining Vessel \"*Hidden Gem*\" which were successful.\n\nSee also Southern Fried Science: [International Seabed Authority gears up for a leadership challenge at the July meeting.](https://www.southernfriedscience.com/international-seabed-authority-gears-up-for-a-leadership-challenge-at-the-july-meeting/)" }, { "id": 24034, "title": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Philippines Expels Chinese Diplomats 2024?", "url_title": "Philippines Expels Chinese Diplomats 2024?", "slug": "philippines-expels-chinese-diplomats-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine" } ], "created_at": "2024-05-18T18:53:41.497830Z", "published_at": "2024-05-18T22:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.894521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-18T22:55:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-18T22:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24034, "title": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-18T18:53:41.497830Z", "open_time": "2024-05-18T22:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-21T22:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-21T22:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas. \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions): \n\n- The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC). \n\n- The Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.\n\n- The PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.\n\n- The PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines. \n\nIf there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "βDiplomat\" is defined using the LSData definition of [diplomatic agent](https://www.lsd.law/define/diplomatic-agent): \"...a person who represents their country in another country. They can be an ambassador, envoy, minister, or chargΓ© d'affaires. Their job is to communicate with the government of the country they are in and promote their own country's interests.\"", "post_id": 24034, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722269561.663571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722269561.663571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.037542399933010916 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.3431247425599087, 3.2857059380348335, 0.7043926150625847, 0.21228082485103633, 0.18526809390665838, 1.4246146496343188, 0.0, 0.31302422044387057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.06565233171152632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9990323312136856, 0.0009676687863144111 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas. \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194)." }, { "id": 24033, "title": "Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?", "short_title": "Slovak PM assasination attempt", "url_title": "Slovak PM assasination attempt", "slug": "slovak-pm-assasination-attempt", "author_id": 144022, "author_username": "Langley", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-18T15:04:51.413237Z", "published_at": "2024-05-20T16:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.324229Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-20T16:30:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-14T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-14T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-20T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "π³οΈ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "βοΈ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "π Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup π", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": 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"edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 24033, "title": "Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-18T15:04:51.413237Z", "open_time": "2024-05-20T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-22T16:30:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-22T16:30:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-14T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-14T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 15th, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-SD party) was targeted in an [assassination attempt](https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting-fico-23faba11c0f371ef0f69a34861337ae0) after leaving a governmental meeting in the town of HandlovΓ‘. The assailant, Juraj Cintula, managed to fire at least five bullets from very close proximity before being subdued. Prime Minister Fico was urgently taken to the hospital; his [condition](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/?intcid=CNR-02-0623) remains serious but stable.\n\nJust a few hours after the attack, the Deputy Chairman of the Slovak Parliament, Δ½uboΕ‘ Blaho (SMER-SD party), in an emotional speech, blamed the [\"liberal media\"](https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/nejvetsi-radikalove-vladni-koalice-obvinili-z-atentatu-na-fica-media-a-opozici_2405151955_jgr) and the political opposition for inciting the shooter. Concurrently, Andrej Danko, leader of the SNS party, which is a member of the ruling coalition, echoed this sentiment.\n\nRobert KaliΕΓ‘k, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, has been the most prominent figure in the aftermath, with his statements also targeting the media and political opposition.\n\nOutgoing Slovak President Zuzana ΔaputovΓ‘ and newly elected President Peter Pellegrini have called for societal calm and are orchestrating a [meeting](https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/caputova-a-pellegrini-vyzvali-k-opusteni-bludneho-kruhu-nenavisti/2519316) with all major political entities in Slovakia, scheduled for May 21. However, so far, all governmental parties have either not responded or declined the invitation.\n\nTo date, apart from the shooter, only one individual has been charged in connection with the assassination attempt, and it was for spreading online hate. Paradoxically, despite the framing by the governmental politicians, the shooter was no fan of the liberal opposition and reportedly also a member of the recently disbanded [\"SlovenskΓ Branci\"](https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/what-is-known-about-suspect-allegedly-involved-in-shooting-of-robert-fico) paramilitary group, which had ties to Russia.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **YES** if [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) Slovak media outlets or international news organizations report that a Slovak journalist or opposition politician has been criminally charged in connection with the assassination attempt.\n\nAlternatively, the resolution will also be **YES** if relevant Slovak institutions (e.g., the public prosecutor's office, courts, police, and similar authorities) issue a statement to that effect.\n\nOtherwise, the question will be resolved as **NO**.", "fine_print": "_In connection with the assassination attempt_ is intentionally a broad description, which in this context represents for example:\n\n- Commentary on the event or its aftermath.\n- Direct or indirect involvement.\n- Incitement of violence prior to or after the assassination attempt.\n\nThe charge must be related to the assassination attempt on Fico in order to count.\n\nOnly criminal charges announced before June 15, 2024, will count. Therefore any changes that are under seal or not publicly known before that date will not count.\n\n\"Journalist\" is defined using the Wikipedia [definition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Journalist): \"a person who gathers information in the form of text, audio or pictures, processes it into a newsworthy form and disseminates it to the public.\"\n\n\"Opposition politician\" is defined as anyone with a position in a Slovak political party that is not part of the ruling government of Slovakia, in other words not part of the ruling coalition of [Smer-SD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direction_%E2%80%93_Social_Democracy), [Hlas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voice_%E2%80%93_Social_Democracy), and [SNS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovak_National_Party).", "post_id": 24033, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718377108.870694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718377108.870694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.010856782781562284 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.1756415832196305, 7.623812733490192, 0.2001330686054349, 0.9028684428446425, 0.37974245119115096, 0.38018642278970594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022195882369684906, 0.0, 0.048444519489087505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010339533689454465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018696454698634184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012799377483163744, 0.0, 0.006033466371212897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001557486043652286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004545421011829164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.198304464572697, "coverage": 0.9998955207143734, "baseline_score": 92.64423090403012, "spot_peer_score": 5.177031683251319, "peer_archived_score": 9.198304464572697, "baseline_archived_score": 92.64423090403012, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.177031683251319 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718377108.921303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718377108.921303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 270, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 15th, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-SD party) was targeted in an [assassination attempt](https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting-fico-23faba11c0f371ef0f69a34861337ae0) after leaving a governmental meeting in the town of HandlovΓ‘. The assailant, Juraj Cintula, managed to fire at least five bullets from very close proximity before being subdued. Prime Minister Fico was urgently taken to the hospital; his [condition](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/?intcid=CNR-02-0623) remains serious but stable.\n\nJust a few hours after the attack, the Deputy Chairman of the Slovak Parliament, Δ½uboΕ‘ Blaho (SMER-SD party), in an emotional speech, blamed the [\"liberal media\"](https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/nejvetsi-radikalove-vladni-koalice-obvinili-z-atentatu-na-fica-media-a-opozici_2405151955_jgr) and the political opposition for inciting the shooter. Concurrently, Andrej Danko, leader of the SNS party, which is a member of the ruling coalition, echoed this sentiment.\n\nRobert KaliΕΓ‘k, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, has been the most prominent figure in the aftermath, with his statements also targeting the media and political opposition.\n\nOutgoing Slovak President Zuzana ΔaputovΓ‘ and newly elected President Peter Pellegrini have called for societal calm and are orchestrating a [meeting](https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/caputova-a-pellegrini-vyzvali-k-opusteni-bludneho-kruhu-nenavisti/2519316) with all major political entities in Slovakia, scheduled for May 21. However, so far, all governmental parties have either not responded or declined the invitation.\n\nTo date, apart from the shooter, only one individual has been charged in connection with the assassination attempt, and it was for spreading online hate. Paradoxically, despite the framing by the governmental politicians, the shooter was no fan of the liberal opposition and reportedly also a member of the recently disbanded [\"SlovenskΓ Branci\"](https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/what-is-known-about-suspect-allegedly-involved-in-shooting-of-robert-fico) paramilitary group, which had ties to Russia." }, { "id": 24020, "title": "Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?", "short_title": "Trump Biden Debate Handshake", "url_title": "Trump Biden Debate Handshake", "slug": "trump-biden-debate-handshake", "author_id": 175799, "author_username": "dingers", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-17T02:24:01.423813Z", "published_at": "2024-05-22T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.429827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-22T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-25T18:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-22T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 151, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "π³οΈ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24020, "title": "Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?", "created_at": "2024-05-17T02:24:01.423813Z", "open_time": "2024-05-22T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-25T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-25T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-25T18:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-25T18:19:30.830330Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump and Joe Biden are [slated to debate at least twice](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/politics/joe-biden-debate/index.html) during the 2024 election, and they already debated twice during the 2020 campaign. In neither of the 2020 debates did they [shake hands](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/26/trump-biden-debate-coronavirus-422040), due to the COVID pandemic. Details about the debate logistics have not been discussed by the Trump and Biden campaigns, and they have [substantial disagreements](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/15/biden-proposes-2-debates-with-trump-ditching-bipartisan-commission-00158082).\n\nThe virus is no longer a health concern, but each candidate has an [extreme dislike](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2024/02/01/what-biden-really-says-about-trump-behind-closed-doors-00139178) [of the other](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/gestapo-administration-trump-likens-biden-054542634.html) that may dissuade the campaigns from agreeing to a handshake. The candidates appeared to greet each other [somewhat cordially](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW1lY5jFNcQ&t=1758s) at the start of the 2020 debate, but a lot has changed since then.\n\nHistorically, there is a long tradition of handshakes at presidential debates starting with the two televised debates in 1960, with the streak [broken](https://time.com/4538640/handshake-presidential-debates/) at the 3rd debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- \"Shake hands\" is defined using the Merriam-Webster [definition](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handshake): *a clasping usually of right hands by two people (as in greeting or farewell)*. Therefore other forms of greeting such as a fist bump, elbow bump, or hug will not count.\n\n- If no debates are held, this question will be annulled.\n\n- A handshake between the candidates at a non-debate event is not sufficient for a Yes resolution.\n\n- The handshake must be clearly verifiable through photographic or video evidence. Without such evidence, the question resolves as No.", "post_id": 24020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730599865.328797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730599865.328797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008339490079427254 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.982925058783984, 3.1901355439793937, 0.04848796881023545, 0.041718968210202996, 0.18054143675187906, 0.034510219276426696, 0.0, 0.028843657722204246, 0.0, 0.0, 3.544782312028087e-05, 0.0, 0.003979581857854786, 0.001046521044590731, 0.0052609234125902396, 0.01945113786916815, 0.0, 0.0015497749769346958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010210330009465203, 0.0008662852711703946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3931940850355772, 0.0, 0.005232422652487864, 0.020144168040437328, 0.0, 0.012175920277430464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00041997609754380823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009529519342969318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007860979143548365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013325647506438707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003321018840840107, 0.0, 0.0011474385841908218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025119263892818414, 0.0005805020701962338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.556489332607938e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9732665434442537e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016343717175905698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002896290564393036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.71156933753219e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023103986009030196 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.78807512731454, "peer_score": 23.962522076540466, "coverage": 0.999584723633599, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999584723633599, "spot_peer_score": -23.115300569491765, "baseline_archived_score": 83.78807512731454, "peer_archived_score": 23.962522076540466, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -23.115300569491765 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288600.050103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288600.050103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 579, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump and Joe Biden are [slated to debate at least twice](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/politics/joe-biden-debate/index.html) during the 2024 election, and they already debated twice during the 2020 campaign. In neither of the 2020 debates did they [shake hands](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/26/trump-biden-debate-coronavirus-422040), due to the COVID pandemic. Details about the debate logistics have not been discussed by the Trump and Biden campaigns, and they have [substantial disagreements](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/15/biden-proposes-2-debates-with-trump-ditching-bipartisan-commission-00158082).\n\nThe virus is no longer a health concern, but each candidate has an [extreme dislike](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2024/02/01/what-biden-really-says-about-trump-behind-closed-doors-00139178) [of the other](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/gestapo-administration-trump-likens-biden-054542634.html) that may dissuade the campaigns from agreeing to a handshake. The candidates appeared to greet each other [somewhat cordially](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW1lY5jFNcQ&t=1758s) at the start of the 2020 debate, but a lot has changed since then.\n\nHistorically, there is a long tradition of handshakes at presidential debates starting with the two televised debates in 1960, with the streak [broken](https://time.com/4538640/handshake-presidential-debates/) at the 3rd debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016." }, { "id": 23937, "title": "Will humans be able to communicate via telepathy before 2050?", "short_title": "Human communication through telepathy", "url_title": "Human communication through telepathy", "slug": "human-communication-through-telepathy", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-16T04:37:51.703714Z", "published_at": "2024-10-01T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T06:15:37.342157Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-01T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-01T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "π¬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "βοΈ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 23937, "title": "Will humans be able to communicate via telepathy before 2050?", "created_at": "2024-05-16T04:37:51.703714Z", "open_time": "2024-10-01T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-05T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-05T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Telepathy is the ability to transmit thoughts or information from one mind to another without using sensory channels. It has long been a staple of science fiction and fantasy but in recent years, advancements in neuroscience and technology have made the idea of communicating without sounds, writing or typing closer to reality.\n\nIn a [study published in Nature in 2023](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06377-x) the possibility to find the word a patient was thinking was demonstrated with much better odds than random. This system used intracortical microelectrode arrays to record high-resolution neural signals, achieving a word error rate of 9.1% on a 50-word vocabulary and 23.8% on a 125,000-word vocabulary.\n\nThese advancements have been made through the use of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI), which are systems that facilitate direct communication between the brain and an external device, through neural interaction. The most famous company working on these types of interfaces is Elon Musk's Neuralink, which [successfully implanted a chip in a patient at the beginning of 2024](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/neuralinks-first-human-patient-able-control-mouse-through-thinking-musk-says-2024-02-20/). The patient was later able to play chess and Civilization on his computer.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if:\n\n1. before January 1, 2050, telepathy has been achieved between humans, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) scientific sources such as a peer-reviewed article, and\n\n2. the capacity has been replicated successfully, also according to credible scientific sources.\n\nThis question will resolve negative on January 1, 2050, if there is no information indicating that the two conditions have been met.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, telepathy will be defined as the direct transmission of thoughts or information between two human brains without using traditional communication (speech, text, etc...). \n\nThe accuracy threshold for validity will be an 85% accuracy over the equivalent length of information of a one minute conversation via natural speech.\n\nA peer-reviewed publication or scientific report from credible scientific sources must document a successful instance of telepathic communication. \n\nInformation transmitted should show a minimum of complexity: sentences may be decided by the operators but will have to be unknown to the receiver. Simple concepts like a basic list of no more than 10 numbers, letters or words (alternatively) will not count.\n\nBoth invasive (such as brain implants) and non-invasive (such as EEG) methods of brain signal acquisition are considered valid and use of intermediary (devices, algorithms, AI) to facilitate communication is permissible.\n\nThe technology must have potential for future scalability for broader use, as indicated by credible sources.\n\nThis resolves positive even if the technology has only been demonstrated in a lab.", "post_id": 23937, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761545726.659432, "end_time": 1792128943.963, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761545726.659432, "end_time": 1792128943.963, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5410628305687843 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.25290596191775816, 0.592193240044222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24900553403217962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29235407747798414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.971842947999753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287389.103805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287389.103805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4187030062777495, 0.5812969937222505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Telepathy is the ability to transmit thoughts or information from one mind to another without using sensory channels. It has long been a staple of science fiction and fantasy but in recent years, advancements in neuroscience and technology have made the idea of communicating without sounds, writing or typing closer to reality.\n\nIn a [study published in Nature in 2023](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06377-x) the possibility to find the word a patient was thinking was demonstrated with much better odds than random. This system used intracortical microelectrode arrays to record high-resolution neural signals, achieving a word error rate of 9.1% on a 50-word vocabulary and 23.8% on a 125,000-word vocabulary.\n\nThese advancements have been made through the use of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI), which are systems that facilitate direct communication between the brain and an external device, through neural interaction. The most famous company working on these types of interfaces is Elon Musk's Neuralink, which [successfully implanted a chip in a patient at the beginning of 2024](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/neuralinks-first-human-patient-able-control-mouse-through-thinking-musk-says-2024-02-20/). The patient was later able to play chess and Civilization on his computer." }, { "id": 23877, "title": "Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?", "short_title": "EU New Tariffs on EVs from China July 2024?", "url_title": "EU New Tariffs on EVs from China July 2024?", "slug": "eu-new-tariffs-on-evs-from-china-july-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-15T16:22:56.128271Z", "published_at": "2024-05-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.692226Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "π Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup π", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "π Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup π", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 23877, "title": "Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-15T16:22:56.128271Z", "open_time": "2024-05-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 14, 2024, the Biden administration imposed [new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and other goods](https://apnews.com/article/biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles-evs-solar-2024ba735c47e04a50898a88425c5e2c), with the EV tariffs increasing to a total level of 102.5% from the previous total of 27.5%. [Analysts have suggested](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/business/us-tariffs-ev-europe-china-trade/index.html) that the new tariffs may put pressure on the European Union (EU) to protect its own EV industry, as the US tariffs may effectively close off the US market, making the EU market more attractive to Chinese EV manufacturers.\n\nThe [European Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Commission) has been [conducting an anti-subsidy investigation of Chinese EVs](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/chinese-ev-imports-europe-might-need-to-impose-up-to-55percent-in-tariffs-.html) since [September 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-launches-anti-subsidy-investigation-into-chinese-electric-vehicles-2023-09-13/). The [investigation has a July 4 deadline](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_4752) to impose provisional anti-subsidy duties.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 5, 2024, credible sources report that the European Union (EU) has announced that new tariffs or duties will be imposed that would apply to imports of Chinese electric vehicles into the EU.", "fine_print": "* New tariffs, duties or sanctions that apply to other countries or products also count, so long as they would apply to Chinese EVs as well.\n* The tariffs or duties do not need to take effect before July 5, 2024, only an announcement is required.\n* Tariffs or duties do not need to be related to the [ongoing anti-subsidy investigation](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_4752), new tariffs or duties on Chinese EVs imposed for any reason will qualify.\n* Pre-notification of tariffs will count as an announcement of tariffs for the purposes of this question.", "post_id": 23877, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718302922.187401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718302922.187401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9617213311071648 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.100120356111322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029102099193291783, 0.0023916025099906184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005612852165504251, 0.028891780429088763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004878079341891922, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21037230990838915, 0.02248592739820702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007599064747706633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03715314298507881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00659673955321026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01807644771542133, 0.004147367952591529, 0.009928975007740863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030645134464605966, 0.0, 0.008707034755549023, 0.027700581072225252, 0.0, 0.037286313441487653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026152847265353614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1246610110958938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015257314047317206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04101658622091283, 0.0591057465619563, 0.0, 0.5780890010866883, 0.0, 0.7408711152380609, 0.15364810343764243, 0.0, 0.5315087728511532, 0.7219523206900296, 11.932403952444572 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.242949753189386, "coverage": 0.5486266468323687, "baseline_score": 15.184863991031703, "spot_peer_score": 59.76737760909427, "peer_archived_score": 20.242949753189386, "baseline_archived_score": 15.184863991031703, "spot_peer_archived_score": 59.76737760909427 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718204923.497603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718204923.497603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.05560823586508912, 0.9443917641349109 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 315, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 14, 2024, the Biden administration imposed [new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and other goods](https://apnews.com/article/biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles-evs-solar-2024ba735c47e04a50898a88425c5e2c), with the EV tariffs increasing to a total level of 102.5% from the previous total of 27.5%. [Analysts have suggested](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/business/us-tariffs-ev-europe-china-trade/index.html) that the new tariffs may put pressure on the European Union (EU) to protect its own EV industry, as the US tariffs may effectively close off the US market, making the EU market more attractive to Chinese EV manufacturers.\n\nThe [European Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Commission) has been [conducting an anti-subsidy investigation of Chinese EVs](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/chinese-ev-imports-europe-might-need-to-impose-up-to-55percent-in-tariffs-.html) since [September 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-launches-anti-subsidy-investigation-into-chinese-electric-vehicles-2023-09-13/). The [investigation has a July 4 deadline](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_4752) to impose provisional anti-subsidy duties." }, { "id": 23876, "title": "Will the REAL ID deadline be extended beyond May 7, 2025?", "short_title": "REAL ID Delayed Again?", "url_title": "REAL ID Delayed Again?", "slug": "real-id-delayed-again", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-15T10:57:06.344201Z", "published_at": "2024-05-16T13:52:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.366718Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-16T13:52:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-08T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T13:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-16T13:52:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "βοΈ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 23876, "title": "Will the REAL ID deadline be extended beyond May 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-05-15T10:57:06.344201Z", "open_time": "2024-05-16T13:52:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-19T13:52:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-19T13:52:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-08T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T13:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T13:55:58.059981Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 2024, it has been almost 20 years since the 9/11 Commission [recommended](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_ID_Act) federal standards for identification, which resulted in the enactment of the controversial REAL ID Act in 2005. According to the 9/11 Commission's [report](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-911REPORT/pdf/GPO-911REPORT.pdf) on page 390:\n\n>At many entry points to vulnerable facilities, including gates for boarding aircraft, sources of identification are the last opportunity to ensure that people are who they say they are and to check\nwhether they are terrorists.\n\nOn the other hand, opponents such as security expert Bruce Schneier [have argued](https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2007/03/real-id_costs_and_be.html) that REAL ID imposes significant costs for little benefit, as well as introducing new vulnerabilities. The Electronic Frontier Foundation [has said](https://www.eff.org/issues/real-id) that REAL ID:\n\n>. . . requires a vast national database linking all of the ID records together. Once the IDs and database are in place their uses will inevitably expand to facilitate a wide range of surveillance activities.\n\nFull implementation of the law has been slow, with some states such as Maine, South Carolina and Pennsylvania [refusing to comply](https://iapp.org/news/a/why-some-states-wont-comply-with-real-id-requirements/). Originally set for May 11, 2008, full implementation of REAL ID was at first delayed to December 31, 2009 and then has had a series of delays after that. Finally on December 5, 2022, DHS [announced](https://www.dhs.gov/news/2022/12/05/dhs-announces-extension-real-id-full-enforcement-deadline) the latest extension, of 24 months, for the 50 US states to bring their driver's licenses and ID cards into compliance with the Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before May 8, 2025, the REAL ID deadline of May 7, 2025, is changed to a later date. If this does not occur, and the compliance deadline for US travelers remains May 7, 2025, then this question resolves as **No**.\n\nResolves based on the official [REAL ID Countdown](https://www.dhs.gov/real-id) page maintained by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the REAL ID deadline is changed to a later date but subsequently reverts back to β€ May 7, 2025, the question will still resolve as **Yes** as of the first announcement of the delay.", "post_id": 23876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746489239.346582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746489239.346582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.3884092915027184 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.634362272227398, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.958618349098435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 1.670104975249027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39377957201828895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.9057678795005379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1919745909177524 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -128.32827969793718, "peer_score": -0.18869093991155622, "coverage": 0.9997581334193201, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997581334193201, "spot_peer_score": 35.175462410354754, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -128.32827969793718, "peer_archived_score": -0.18869093991155622, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.175462410354754, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289894.433294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289894.433294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.37640648720762293, 0.6235935127923771 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 2024, it has been almost 20 years since the 9/11 Commission [recommended](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_ID_Act) federal standards for identification, which resulted in the enactment of the controversial REAL ID Act in 2005. According to the 9/11 Commission's [report](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-911REPORT/pdf/GPO-911REPORT.pdf) on page 390:\n\n>At many entry points to vulnerable facilities, including gates for boarding aircraft, sources of identification are the last opportunity to ensure that people are who they say they are and to check\nwhether they are terrorists.\n\nOn the other hand, opponents such as security expert Bruce Schneier [have argued](https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2007/03/real-id_costs_and_be.html) that REAL ID imposes significant costs for little benefit, as well as introducing new vulnerabilities. The Electronic Frontier Foundation [has said](https://www.eff.org/issues/real-id) that REAL ID:\n\n>. . . requires a vast national database linking all of the ID records together. Once the IDs and database are in place their uses will inevitably expand to facilitate a wide range of surveillance activities.\n\nFull implementation of the law has been slow, with some states such as Maine, South Carolina and Pennsylvania [refusing to comply](https://iapp.org/news/a/why-some-states-wont-comply-with-real-id-requirements/). Originally set for May 11, 2008, full implementation of REAL ID was at first delayed to December 31, 2009 and then has had a series of delays after that. Finally on December 5, 2022, DHS [announced](https://www.dhs.gov/news/2022/12/05/dhs-announces-extension-real-id-full-enforcement-deadline) the latest extension, of 24 months, for the 50 US states to bring their driver's licenses and ID cards into compliance with the Act." }, { "id": 23873, "title": "Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 1,000,000 or more inhabitants before 2100?", "short_title": "Artificial Island with 1m population by 2100", "url_title": "Artificial Island with 1m population by 2100", "slug": "artificial-island-with-1m-population-by-2100", "author_id": 128784, "author_username": "benj83", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-14T23:33:06.428341Z", "published_at": "2024-09-22T14:49:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-30T03:22:17.648726Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-22T14:49:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2080-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-22T14:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "βοΈ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 23873, "title": "Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 1,000,000 or more inhabitants before 2100?", "created_at": "2024-05-14T23:33:06.428341Z", "open_time": "2024-09-22T14:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-25T14:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-25T14:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2080-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2080-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Artificial islands have a long history and have been built in many parts of the world. Ancient examples include the reclaimed islands of Ancient Egypt, as well as artificial islands in Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Micronesia and the still extant floating islands of Lake Titicaca between Peru and Bolivia.\n\nIn modern times, technology has advanced and enabled the construction of more artificial islands. [The Pearl Island](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pearl_Island) in Doha, Qatar is one of the most populous artificial islands today with an area of 4kmΒ² and a population of over 50,000 [as of 2023](https://udcqatar.com/Media-Room/Press-Releases/2023-08-11-The-Pearl-Island-experiences-a-significant-increase-in-vehicle-influx). There are planned, existing, debated, or ongoing projects for artificial islands in several countries, including China, Bahrain, Israel, the Netherlands, the Maldives, Qatar and the UAE.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any time before January 1, 2100, there is an artificial island or archipelago whose construction begun after the year 2000, that has a permanent population of 1,000,000 inhabitants or more. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* An island will only count as artificial if at least 85% of its area has been built artificially.\n\n* An archipelago can consist of both natural and artificial islands, but for it to count the artificial islands of the archipelago must have a total population of at least 1,000,000.", "post_id": 23873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759202526.993753, "end_time": 1787653532.068, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759202526.993753, "end_time": 1787653532.068, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5554353179757802 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5797351871508267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289375.519475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289375.519475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8547881147031023, 0.14521188529689766 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Artificial islands have a long history and have been built in many parts of the world. Ancient examples include the reclaimed islands of Ancient Egypt, as well as artificial islands in Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Micronesia and the still extant floating islands of Lake Titicaca between Peru and Bolivia.\n\nIn modern times, technology has advanced and enabled the construction of more artificial islands. [The Pearl Island](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pearl_Island) in Doha, Qatar is one of the most populous artificial islands today with an area of 4kmΒ² and a population of over 50,000 [as of 2023](https://udcqatar.com/Media-Room/Press-Releases/2023-08-11-The-Pearl-Island-experiences-a-significant-increase-in-vehicle-influx). There are planned, existing, debated, or ongoing projects for artificial islands in several countries, including China, Bahrain, Israel, the Netherlands, the Maldives, Qatar and the UAE." } ] }
