Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3040
{ "count": 5975, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3060", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3020", "results": [ { "id": 19023, "title": "Assuming the antibody characterization FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of conducting knock-out testing of all recombinant antibodies for 15k proteins be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "Antibody Knock Out Testing for 15k Proteins?", "url_title": "Antibody Knock Out Testing for 15k Proteins?", "slug": "antibody-knock-out-testing-for-15k-proteins", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-22T22:11:21.139036Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.532035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2477, "type": "tournament", "name": "FRO-casting", "slug": "fro-casting", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T14:30:00Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:00:48Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-14T14:47:10.071355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2638, "type": "question_series", "name": "Antibody Characterization through Open Science", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/antibodies.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T21:53:02Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T22:53:02Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2638, "type": "question_series", "name": "Antibody Characterization through Open Science", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/antibodies.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T21:53:02Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T22:53:02Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19023, "title": "Assuming the antibody characterization FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of conducting knock-out testing of all recombinant antibodies for 15k proteins be achieved before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-09-22T22:11:21.139036Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for A \"Focused Research Organization” to Validate Antibodies Through Open Science](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zi1ZFcuLGfg_iUfjTCaDY9xHDMj-jm2TTaRgwe3jDGc/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\n**Many antibodies that scientists purchase from commercial manufacturers to conduct their research do not work as advertised, because most have never been validated properly. This project brings together the public and private sectors to conduct independent, third-party testing of commercial antibody manufacturers’ catalogs and publish the results in the public domain, such that no scientist ever uses an ineffective antibody again.**\n\n###Problem Statement\nThousands of scientists use antibodies – each of which targets one of the 20,000 human proteins – to develop fundamental theories of human biology, and to identify targets for new medicines. These antibodies are often purchased from commercial antibody manufacturers, whose combined catalog contains between 3.5 million and 4.8 million products. But for more than 30 years, the scientific community has been aware that many of these antibodies do not work as advertised, meaning that they do not recognize the intended protein target, or recognize the target but also recognize non-specific targets that confound their use. This occurs because many if not most antibodies have never been validated, or have been validated using inferior or outdated scientific methods, and because academics do not have resources or skill sets to test them themselves. When an antibody binds to a non-targeted protein, a researcher may believe that the target protein, perhaps a drug target, is present in a particular cell type or subcellular organelle when in reality it is not. These erroneous results lead to a vast waste of time, resources, and human capital.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe science on the optimal antibody testing methodology is largely settled: using an appropriately selected wild type human cell and a CRISPR knockout version of the same cell as the basis for testing yields the most rigorous and broadly applicable results. However, the cost of testing for an individual target or antibody is often prohibitive for any individual academic lab or company. Our organization, YCharOS (Antibody Characterization through Open Science), couples the settled science with a unique open science business model, in which a consortium of antibody manufacturers provide, in-kind, all their renewable antibodies (i.e. monoclonal or recombinant, which once tested are of value in perpetuity) to any given target to YCharOS for use in direct, head-to-head comparisons. This centralized testing model creates massive economic efficiencies for the sector while also providing immense scientific benefit to the public. Moreover, since all data will be released into the public domain using the principles of open science, the benefits accrue to all. We envision a world where no scientist ever uses an antibody that has not been rigorously tested by an independent third party. We believe that renewable antibodies for all 20,000 human proteins can be knockout validated in many applications for a one-time total budget of approximately $100 million.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nAcademic and pharmaceutical scientists laboring to advance our understanding and treatment of human disease will be able to save time and money and produce higher quality research using validated antibodies. Monetarily, scientists spend an estimated $1 billion per year on ineffective antibodies that could otherwise be spent on conducting further research. Furthermore, there is a not insignificant volume of faulty research publications that have resulted from scientists unknowingly using ineffective antibodies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 2: Conduct knock-out testing of all available recombinant antibodies for 15k proteins**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [validate antibodies through open science](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19023, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934744.969448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934744.969448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.4046840593624231 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.8289782112881589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0946364922645004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43178139626149786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008282.169433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008282.169433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7905524413412016, 0.20944755865879836 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for A \"Focused Research Organization” to Validate Antibodies Through Open Science](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zi1ZFcuLGfg_iUfjTCaDY9xHDMj-jm2TTaRgwe3jDGc/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\n**Many antibodies that scientists purchase from commercial manufacturers to conduct their research do not work as advertised, because most have never been validated properly. This project brings together the public and private sectors to conduct independent, third-party testing of commercial antibody manufacturers’ catalogs and publish the results in the public domain, such that no scientist ever uses an ineffective antibody again.**\n\n###Problem Statement\nThousands of scientists use antibodies – each of which targets one of the 20,000 human proteins – to develop fundamental theories of human biology, and to identify targets for new medicines. These antibodies are often purchased from commercial antibody manufacturers, whose combined catalog contains between 3.5 million and 4.8 million products. But for more than 30 years, the scientific community has been aware that many of these antibodies do not work as advertised, meaning that they do not recognize the intended protein target, or recognize the target but also recognize non-specific targets that confound their use. This occurs because many if not most antibodies have never been validated, or have been validated using inferior or outdated scientific methods, and because academics do not have resources or skill sets to test them themselves. When an antibody binds to a non-targeted protein, a researcher may believe that the target protein, perhaps a drug target, is present in a particular cell type or subcellular organelle when in reality it is not. These erroneous results lead to a vast waste of time, resources, and human capital.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe science on the optimal antibody testing methodology is largely settled: using an appropriately selected wild type human cell and a CRISPR knockout version of the same cell as the basis for testing yields the most rigorous and broadly applicable results. However, the cost of testing for an individual target or antibody is often prohibitive for any individual academic lab or company. Our organization, YCharOS (Antibody Characterization through Open Science), couples the settled science with a unique open science business model, in which a consortium of antibody manufacturers provide, in-kind, all their renewable antibodies (i.e. monoclonal or recombinant, which once tested are of value in perpetuity) to any given target to YCharOS for use in direct, head-to-head comparisons. This centralized testing model creates massive economic efficiencies for the sector while also providing immense scientific benefit to the public. Moreover, since all data will be released into the public domain using the principles of open science, the benefits accrue to all. We envision a world where no scientist ever uses an antibody that has not been rigorously tested by an independent third party. We believe that renewable antibodies for all 20,000 human proteins can be knockout validated in many applications for a one-time total budget of approximately $100 million.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nAcademic and pharmaceutical scientists laboring to advance our understanding and treatment of human disease will be able to save time and money and produce higher quality research using validated antibodies. Monetarily, scientists spend an estimated $1 billion per year on ineffective antibodies that could otherwise be spent on conducting further research. Furthermore, there is a not insignificant volume of faulty research publications that have resulted from scientists unknowingly using ineffective antibodies." }, { "id": 19022, "title": "Assuming the antibody characterization FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of conducting knock-out testing of all recombinant antibodies for 10k proteins be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "Antibody Knock Out Testing for 10k Proteins?", "url_title": "Antibody Knock Out Testing for 10k Proteins?", "slug": "antibody-knock-out-testing-for-10k-proteins", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-22T22:10:02.159304Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.328781Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2477, "type": "tournament", "name": "FRO-casting", "slug": "fro-casting", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T14:30:00Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:00:48Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-14T14:47:10.071355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2638, "type": "question_series", "name": "Antibody Characterization through Open Science", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/antibodies.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T21:53:02Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T22:53:02Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2638, "type": "question_series", "name": "Antibody Characterization through Open Science", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/antibodies.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T21:53:02Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T22:53:02Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19022, "title": "Assuming the antibody characterization FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of conducting knock-out testing of all recombinant antibodies for 10k proteins be achieved before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-09-22T22:10:02.159304Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for A \"Focused Research Organization” to Validate Antibodies Through Open Science](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zi1ZFcuLGfg_iUfjTCaDY9xHDMj-jm2TTaRgwe3jDGc/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\n**Many antibodies that scientists purchase from commercial manufacturers to conduct their research do not work as advertised, because most have never been validated properly. This project brings together the public and private sectors to conduct independent, third-party testing of commercial antibody manufacturers’ catalogs and publish the results in the public domain, such that no scientist ever uses an ineffective antibody again.**\n\n###Problem Statement\nThousands of scientists use antibodies – each of which targets one of the 20,000 human proteins – to develop fundamental theories of human biology, and to identify targets for new medicines. These antibodies are often purchased from commercial antibody manufacturers, whose combined catalog contains between 3.5 million and 4.8 million products. But for more than 30 years, the scientific community has been aware that many of these antibodies do not work as advertised, meaning that they do not recognize the intended protein target, or recognize the target but also recognize non-specific targets that confound their use. This occurs because many if not most antibodies have never been validated, or have been validated using inferior or outdated scientific methods, and because academics do not have resources or skill sets to test them themselves. When an antibody binds to a non-targeted protein, a researcher may believe that the target protein, perhaps a drug target, is present in a particular cell type or subcellular organelle when in reality it is not. These erroneous results lead to a vast waste of time, resources, and human capital.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe science on the optimal antibody testing methodology is largely settled: using an appropriately selected wild type human cell and a CRISPR knockout version of the same cell as the basis for testing yields the most rigorous and broadly applicable results. However, the cost of testing for an individual target or antibody is often prohibitive for any individual academic lab or company. Our organization, YCharOS (Antibody Characterization through Open Science), couples the settled science with a unique open science business model, in which a consortium of antibody manufacturers provide, in-kind, all their renewable antibodies (i.e. monoclonal or recombinant, which once tested are of value in perpetuity) to any given target to YCharOS for use in direct, head-to-head comparisons. This centralized testing model creates massive economic efficiencies for the sector while also providing immense scientific benefit to the public. Moreover, since all data will be released into the public domain using the principles of open science, the benefits accrue to all. We envision a world where no scientist ever uses an antibody that has not been rigorously tested by an independent third party. We believe that renewable antibodies for all 20,000 human proteins can be knockout validated in many applications for a one-time total budget of approximately $100 million.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nAcademic and pharmaceutical scientists laboring to advance our understanding and treatment of human disease will be able to save time and money and produce higher quality research using validated antibodies. Monetarily, scientists spend an estimated $1 billion per year on ineffective antibodies that could otherwise be spent on conducting further research. Furthermore, there is a not insignificant volume of faulty research publications that have resulted from scientists unknowingly using ineffective antibodies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 1: Conduct knock-out testing of all available recombinant antibodies for 10k proteins**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [validate antibodies through open science](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19022, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934738.694661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934738.694661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6676208904874666 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.5732928815018028, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1570513256851056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5339737913718565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008490.908115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008490.908115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3840051952560384, 0.6159948047439616 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for A \"Focused Research Organization” to Validate Antibodies Through Open Science](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zi1ZFcuLGfg_iUfjTCaDY9xHDMj-jm2TTaRgwe3jDGc/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\n**Many antibodies that scientists purchase from commercial manufacturers to conduct their research do not work as advertised, because most have never been validated properly. This project brings together the public and private sectors to conduct independent, third-party testing of commercial antibody manufacturers’ catalogs and publish the results in the public domain, such that no scientist ever uses an ineffective antibody again.**\n\n###Problem Statement\nThousands of scientists use antibodies – each of which targets one of the 20,000 human proteins – to develop fundamental theories of human biology, and to identify targets for new medicines. These antibodies are often purchased from commercial antibody manufacturers, whose combined catalog contains between 3.5 million and 4.8 million products. But for more than 30 years, the scientific community has been aware that many of these antibodies do not work as advertised, meaning that they do not recognize the intended protein target, or recognize the target but also recognize non-specific targets that confound their use. This occurs because many if not most antibodies have never been validated, or have been validated using inferior or outdated scientific methods, and because academics do not have resources or skill sets to test them themselves. When an antibody binds to a non-targeted protein, a researcher may believe that the target protein, perhaps a drug target, is present in a particular cell type or subcellular organelle when in reality it is not. These erroneous results lead to a vast waste of time, resources, and human capital.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe science on the optimal antibody testing methodology is largely settled: using an appropriately selected wild type human cell and a CRISPR knockout version of the same cell as the basis for testing yields the most rigorous and broadly applicable results. However, the cost of testing for an individual target or antibody is often prohibitive for any individual academic lab or company. Our organization, YCharOS (Antibody Characterization through Open Science), couples the settled science with a unique open science business model, in which a consortium of antibody manufacturers provide, in-kind, all their renewable antibodies (i.e. monoclonal or recombinant, which once tested are of value in perpetuity) to any given target to YCharOS for use in direct, head-to-head comparisons. This centralized testing model creates massive economic efficiencies for the sector while also providing immense scientific benefit to the public. Moreover, since all data will be released into the public domain using the principles of open science, the benefits accrue to all. We envision a world where no scientist ever uses an antibody that has not been rigorously tested by an independent third party. We believe that renewable antibodies for all 20,000 human proteins can be knockout validated in many applications for a one-time total budget of approximately $100 million.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nAcademic and pharmaceutical scientists laboring to advance our understanding and treatment of human disease will be able to save time and money and produce higher quality research using validated antibodies. Monetarily, scientists spend an estimated $1 billion per year on ineffective antibodies that could otherwise be spent on conducting further research. Furthermore, there is a not insignificant volume of faulty research publications that have resulted from scientists unknowingly using ineffective antibodies." }, { "id": 19021, "title": "Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?", "short_title": "Autonomous LLM attack/virus/worm before 2025", "url_title": "Autonomous LLM attack/virus/worm before 2025", "slug": "autonomous-llm-attackvirusworm-before-2025", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100216, "username": "kokotajlod" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-09-22T20:15:59.375274Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.767089Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", 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"user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T11:58:05.999339Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19021, "title": "Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-09-22T20:15:59.375274Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-30T19:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-30T19:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T21:45:04.429703Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Note: This question is a stricter operationalization of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19020/llm-cyberattackvirusworm-before-2025/).\n\nAs large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are [concerned](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/wormgpt-black-hat-llm) that LLMs could potentially be used in the execution of cyberattacks and the production of viruses and worms.\n\nFurthermore, as LLMs gain autonomous capabilities as AI agents, such as in the case of AutoGPT and BabyAGI, there is the possibility that such attacks could occur more easily and more frequently.\n\nThis question asks whether a major cyberattack or significant virus or worm that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs (copying weights from one computer to another without any human hacker intervening in between) will arise before 2025.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, a cyberattack, worm, or virus, will be considered major if any of the below scenarios occur as a result:\n\n- At least one person is killed\n\n- There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage\n\n- a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if credible sources report that an autonomous and self-replicating LLM (that copies its weights from one computer to another without any human hacker intervening in between) has caused a major cyberattack, virus, or worm that results in any of the following:\n\n- At least one person is killed\n\n- There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage\n\n- a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus.\n\nIf none of these scenarios occur before January 1st 2025, this question will resolve 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{}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290039.653584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290039.653584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993473367403796, 0.0006526632596204774 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Note: This question is a stricter operationalization of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19020/llm-cyberattackvirusworm-before-2025/).\n\nAs large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are [concerned](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/wormgpt-black-hat-llm) that LLMs could potentially be used in the execution of cyberattacks and the production of viruses and worms.\n\nFurthermore, as LLMs gain autonomous capabilities as AI agents, such as in the case of AutoGPT and BabyAGI, there is the possibility that such attacks could occur more easily and more frequently.\n\nThis question asks whether a major cyberattack or significant virus or worm that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs (copying weights from one computer to another without any human hacker intervening in between) will arise before 2025.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, a cyberattack, worm, or virus, will be considered major if any of the below scenarios occur as a result:\n\n- At least one person is killed\n\n- There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage\n\n- a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus." }, { "id": 19020, "title": "Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?", "short_title": "LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025?", "url_title": "LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025?", "slug": "llm-cyberattackvirusworm-before-2025", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100216, "username": "kokotajlod" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-09-22T19:41:25.630447Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.962044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Note: This question is a looser operationalization of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19021/autonomous-llm-attackvirusworm-before-2025/).\n\nAs large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are [concerned](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/wormgpt-black-hat-llm) that LLMs could potentially be used in the execution of cyberattacks and the production of viruses and worms.\n\nThis question asks whether a major cyberattack or significant virus or worm that uses LLMs will arise before 2025.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, a cyberattack, worm, or virus, will be considered major if any of the below scenarios occur as a result:\n\n- At least one person is killed\n\n- There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage\n\n- a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if credible sources report that a major cyberattack, virus, or worm that uses LLMs results in any of the following:\n\n- At least one person is killed\n\n- There is 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[concerned](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/wormgpt-black-hat-llm) that LLMs could potentially be used in the execution of cyberattacks and the production of viruses and worms.\n\nThis question asks whether a major cyberattack or significant virus or worm that uses LLMs will arise before 2025.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, a cyberattack, worm, or virus, will be considered major if any of the below scenarios occur as a result:\n\n- At least one person is killed\n\n- There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage\n\n- a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus." }, { "id": 19019, "title": "Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?", "short_title": "Powerful LLM download before 2025", "url_title": "Powerful LLM 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"edited_at": "2025-09-22T11:58:05.999339Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T11:58:05.999339Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As large language models (LLMs) gain more impressive capabilities, there are increasing fears within the AI alignment community as well as the general public that these models could be misused to cause severely negative outcomes. While companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have kept their models closed, Meta has made its Llama 2 model open source.\n\nThis question asks if any LLMs as powerful as GPT-4 will be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025. There are multiple ways this could occur, both legal (open-source) and illegal (leaked models available on the dark web).\n\nBecause there is no perfect way to compare the capabilities of various LLMs, for the purpose of this question, an LLM will be determined to be as powerful as GPT-4 by a panel of experts. \n\n[Here](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf) is a paper that OpenAI released that discusses GPT-4's capabilities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if a panel of AI experts chosen by Metaculus concludes at any point before January 1st, 2025 that a model with capabilities at least as impressive as the original GPT-4 is widely available for download.\n\nWhile there is no ideal way to compare the capabilities of various LLMs, this panel of experts will be called if credible reports arise that a powerful LLM believed to be as impressive as GPT-4 is widely available for download. This panel of experts will then determine if such an LLM meets the threshold to be considered as powerful as GPT-4.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19019, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721749030.962283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721749030.962283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9028223399252637 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17521260341868058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.609435213025656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010964104844829023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028173896526922032, 0.0, 0.010056684046901687, 0.5503030855059633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23245779543483824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10860454428067448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09593538061168853, 0.006612690065158127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013570757934363003, 0.005662130661429139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015475270301467286, 0.005811433492403792, 0.012983441907495109, 0.011938334740801398, 0.007697537105339185, 0.0, 0.39231754602677743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016474821954967273, 0.0002378000335105385, 0.022671607495467996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05351025583010144, 0.0004535844344508773, 0.0352926542079976, 0.010969321501846908, 0.07011600110995009, 0.014103702851542069, 0.00836654815094762, 0.31065819808753686, 0.015303611543873974, 0.09010077619439208, 1.3081817566611098, 0.3042011566102468, 0.3248031490158678, 0.0, 0.1384175873771158, 1.8647189731666751, 0.3252512890207895, 0.6504581028181893, 1.7275801539896323, 9.67347069737582 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.010834771606214, "coverage": 0.6487310009870711, "baseline_score": 35.253585683404495, "spot_peer_score": 105.6041721104149, "peer_archived_score": 5.010834771606214, "baseline_archived_score": 35.253585683404495, "spot_peer_archived_score": 105.6041721104149 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721550054.449255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721550054.449255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04930107410718865, 0.9506989258928114 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 336, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As large language models (LLMs) gain more impressive capabilities, there are increasing fears within the AI alignment community as well as the general public that these models could be misused to cause severely negative outcomes. While companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have kept their models closed, Meta has made its Llama 2 model open source.\n\nThis question asks if any LLMs as powerful as GPT-4 will be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025. There are multiple ways this could occur, both legal (open-source) and illegal (leaked models available on the dark web).\n\nBecause there is no perfect way to compare the capabilities of various LLMs, for the purpose of this question, an LLM will be determined to be as powerful as GPT-4 by a panel of experts. \n\n[Here](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf) is a paper that OpenAI released that discusses GPT-4's capabilities." }, { "id": 18992, "title": "Will Greece gain an investment-grade credit rating by Fitch or Standard & Poor before 2024?", "short_title": "Greece investment-grade credit rating 2023", "url_title": "Greece investment-grade credit rating 2023", "slug": "greece-investment-grade-credit-rating-2023", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-21T23:25:13.121964Z", "published_at": "2023-09-23T21:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.652715Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-23T21:08:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-07T15:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-07T15:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-23T21:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18992, "title": "Will Greece gain an investment-grade credit rating by Fitch or Standard & Poor before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-09-21T23:25:13.121964Z", "open_time": "2023-09-23T21:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-24T12:29:23.614825Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-24T12:29:23.614825Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-07T15:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-07T15:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-07T15:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Greece's credit rating collapsed during the Great Recession and has not fully recovered since. The last time Greece held an investment-grade credit rating by any of the Big Three was in [2010](https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/rating). However, its economy has been slowly recovering in the past seven years. Recently, Moody's [upgraded](https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-upgrades-Greeces-ratings-to-Ba1-outlook-stable--PR_480117) the country's credit rating to Ba1, one step below investment grade.\n\nStandard & Poor gave the country a BB+ rating with a positive outlook on April 21st, 2023 and are [planning](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/190702-calendar-of-2019-emea-sovereign-regional-and-local-government-rating-publication-dates-midyear-update-10798236) to release their next update for the country on October 20th, 2023. Fitch gave it a BB+ rating with a stable outlook on June 9th, 2023 and is [planning](https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/sovereign-rating-review-calendar-2023-04-07-2023) to release the next update on December 1st, 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if *either* Fitch or S&P officially announce that they give Greece a BBB rating or higher before 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18992, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699105660.317163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.756339138294081 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699105660.317163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.756339138294081 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5883321726685563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.0, 0.3213918847343322, 0.06329342166735366, 0.15879807646568847, 0.04583246801941605, 0.0, 0.12458556497060898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18047592269923052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17837564508143805, 0.0, 0.08397709005035515, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.10972487483863327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6917827179572668, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37390892894840233, 0.7919320299234724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 3.0879463701500542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.920569728684799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.804299594681408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49920536031906015 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699342756.290036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699342756.290036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30575805633447195, 0.694241943665528 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Greece's credit rating collapsed during the Great Recession and has not fully recovered since. The last time Greece held an investment-grade credit rating by any of the Big Three was in [2010](https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/rating). However, its economy has been slowly recovering in the past seven years. Recently, Moody's [upgraded](https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-upgrades-Greeces-ratings-to-Ba1-outlook-stable--PR_480117) the country's credit rating to Ba1, one step below investment grade.\n\nStandard & Poor gave the country a BB+ rating with a positive outlook on April 21st, 2023 and are [planning](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/190702-calendar-of-2019-emea-sovereign-regional-and-local-government-rating-publication-dates-midyear-update-10798236) to release their next update for the country on October 20th, 2023. Fitch gave it a BB+ rating with a stable outlook on June 9th, 2023 and is [planning](https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/sovereign-rating-review-calendar-2023-04-07-2023) to release the next update on December 1st, 2023." }, { "id": 18865, "title": "Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?", "short_title": "Ukraine takes control of Donetsk and Luhansk?", "url_title": "Ukraine takes control of Donetsk and Luhansk?", "slug": "ukraine-takes-control-of-donetsk-and-luhansk", "author_id": 154578, "author_username": "TimeTraveller34", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-20T16:06:44.787474Z", "published_at": "2023-09-23T17:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T03:50:58.983148Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-23T17:02:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-23T17:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 195, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18865, "title": "Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?", "created_at": "2023-09-20T16:06:44.787474Z", "open_time": "2023-09-23T17:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-24T18:21:47.027876Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-24T18:21:47.027876Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in an escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War which began in 2014. Before the invasion, Russian troops massed near Ukraine's borders, as Russian officials denied plans to attack. Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, announced a \"special military operation\" to support the Russian-backed breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, whose paramilitary forces were fighting Ukraine in the Donbas conflict. \n\nBy April 2022, Russian troops retreated from the northern front. Russia had captured Kherson in March and Mariupol in May after a destructive siege. In April, Russia launched a renewed offensive in the Donbas. Russian forces continued to bomb military and civilian targets far from the front line, including the energy grid through the winter. In late 2022, Ukraine launched counteroffensives in the south and east. Soon after, Russia announced the illegal annexation of four partly-occupied regions. In November, Ukraine retook parts of Kherson Oblast, including Kherson itself. In June 2023, Ukraine launched another counteroffensive in the southeast.\n\nBy September 2023, Ukrainian forces were slowly retaking the villages and towns in the oblasts and surrounding areas day by day with help from Western countries.\n\nRelated News links: - \n\n<https://www.itv.com/news/2022-02-21/donetsk-and-luhansk-the-story-behind-ukraines-separatist-regions>\n\n<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/08/ukraine-criticises-russian-fake-elections-in-occupied-regions?ref=upstract.com>\n\n<https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-donbass-separatist-recognition/>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible news sources confirm that Ukraine has taken full control of the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and their surrounding Oblasts before 1 January 2030.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18865, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758167448.435285, "end_time": 1758570835.969364, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758167448.435285, "end_time": 1758570835.969364, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.09772162892149766 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.28538299822355, 3.7170316738529587, 2.42071147052423, 1.6539977007654427, 0.7160867810748097, 3.018826131513627, 0.015508503843127887, 0.0, 0.0001626670157522502, 0.0, 0.38407857400420486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008101800757223834, 0.0, 0.2097367351195639, 0.00044217479300900296, 0.012286551676066843, 9.055150687721309e-05, 0.0, 0.025920075805741058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15951602725501066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017380042293456282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004373014579243026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003102742470409554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0052654971115142805, 0.051113763119002016, 0.0, 0.6207328214717523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03914468908841351, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16871685475903522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.416883908440774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02265573347352441 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288334.313791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288334.313791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9817706455129406, 0.018229354487059465 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 424, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in an escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War which began in 2014. Before the invasion, Russian troops massed near Ukraine's borders, as Russian officials denied plans to attack. Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, announced a \"special military operation\" to support the Russian-backed breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, whose paramilitary forces were fighting Ukraine in the Donbas conflict. \n\nBy April 2022, Russian troops retreated from the northern front. Russia had captured Kherson in March and Mariupol in May after a destructive siege. In April, Russia launched a renewed offensive in the Donbas. Russian forces continued to bomb military and civilian targets far from the front line, including the energy grid through the winter. In late 2022, Ukraine launched counteroffensives in the south and east. Soon after, Russia announced the illegal annexation of four partly-occupied regions. In November, Ukraine retook parts of Kherson Oblast, including Kherson itself. In June 2023, Ukraine launched another counteroffensive in the southeast.\n\nBy September 2023, Ukrainian forces were slowly retaking the villages and towns in the oblasts and surrounding areas day by day with help from Western countries.\n\nRelated News links: - \n\n<https://www.itv.com/news/2022-02-21/donetsk-and-luhansk-the-story-behind-ukraines-separatist-regions>\n\n<https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/08/ukraine-criticises-russian-fake-elections-in-occupied-regions?ref=upstract.com>\n\n<https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-donbass-separatist-recognition/>" }, { "id": 18862, "title": "Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?", "short_title": "Ukraine NATO Membership before 2035", "url_title": "Ukraine NATO Membership before 2035", "slug": "ukraine-nato-membership-before-2035", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-20T13:42:22.617932Z", "published_at": "2023-09-26T22:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T09:49:46.209096Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-26T22:14:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-26T22:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 152, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18862, "title": "Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?", "created_at": "2023-09-20T13:42:22.617932Z", "open_time": "2023-09-26T22:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-28T11:52:59.737505Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-28T11:52:59.737505Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [NATO's site](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37750.htm):\n\n> - In September 2020, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO. In September 2022, following Russia’s illegal attempted annexations of Ukrainian territory, Ukraine reiterated its request for NATO membership.\n\n> - At the 2023 Vilnius Summit, Allies reaffirmed their commitment that Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Recognising Ukraine’s increased interoperability and substantial progress with reforms, they decided that Ukraine’s path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has moved beyond the need for the Membership Action Plan. Allies will continue to support and review Ukraine’s progress on interoperability as well as additional democratic and security sector reforms that are required on its path towards future membership. NATO Foreign Ministers will regularly assess progress through the adapted Annual National Programme. NATO will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ukraine is inducted as a full member of NATO before January 1, 2035 at 00:00 UTC. If Ukraine is officially accepted as on the path to full induction, but does not actually become a full NATO member before 2035, that will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18862, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757584175.858448, "end_time": 1766858122.576207, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757584175.858448, "end_time": 1766858122.576207, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.21200123855359698 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7994206866198497, 0.07211907051247649, 0.30344042134254684, 0.018702064603359103, 0.0, 1.0968216726616309, 0.1978137927167183, 0.06741883625023991, 0.6734927565858645, 1.7113872194189952, 3.5886365612175357, 0.9192329362925286, 1.0912178036387792, 0.2922826671231258, 0.01480556252169123, 2.115400696489291, 0.07116481227710209, 0.248447487288942, 0.0, 0.0, 3.8747875640941283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6353031266686322, 0.17456945939669685, 0.1050132364720922, 0.6812590197160346, 0.0, 0.016540559190106052, 0.0, 0.4449364292337578, 0.07921863098108327, 0.1264994288281962, 0.036368581569032644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05252246288213353, 0.0, 0.5111074528236241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.054129536127388814, 0.04783372219662484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33983300279942996, 0.0001341737054977053, 0.000430660371063588, 7.737200424730629e-05, 0.0, 0.05820350072177372, 0.15470184886546115, 0.11589450271204872, 0.0, 0.0005848007700156147, 0.06386761641294224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01037967139288779, 0.048403610521149616, 0.0, 0.01110703263330064, 0.0, 0.02773913650590453, 0.0004648784424239007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032895643031057515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1471393344379984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004354192192454327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11679851415332933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17936431527968769, 0.0, 0.931593425032874 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287681.348905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287681.348905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8847649847403827, 0.11523501525961738 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 344, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [NATO's site](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_37750.htm):\n\n> - In September 2020, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approved Ukraine's new National Security Strategy, which provides for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the aim of membership in NATO. In September 2022, following Russia’s illegal attempted annexations of Ukrainian territory, Ukraine reiterated its request for NATO membership.\n\n> - At the 2023 Vilnius Summit, Allies reaffirmed their commitment that Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Recognising Ukraine’s increased interoperability and substantial progress with reforms, they decided that Ukraine’s path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has moved beyond the need for the Membership Action Plan. Allies will continue to support and review Ukraine’s progress on interoperability as well as additional democratic and security sector reforms that are required on its path towards future membership. NATO Foreign Ministers will regularly assess progress through the adapted Annual National Programme. NATO will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met." }, { "id": 18861, "title": "Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?", "short_title": "Musk Fed Charges or SEC Complaint before 2026", "url_title": "Musk Fed Charges or SEC Complaint before 2026", "slug": "musk-fed-charges-or-sec-complaint-before-2026", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-20T00:51:27.926679Z", "published_at": "2023-09-22T19:51:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.463406Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-22T19:51:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-14T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-22T19:51:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18861, "title": "Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-09-20T00:51:27.926679Z", "open_time": "2023-09-22T19:51:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-24T19:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-24T19:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-04T10:11:14.314237Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-14T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk and his various businesses have been the subject of numerous criminal and civil proceedings initiated by the United States (US) federal government.\n\nAmong other ongoing investigations and legal proceedings, multiple news outlets have [reported](https://www.wsj.com/tech/justice-department-probe-scrutinizes-elon-musk-perks-at-tesla-going-back-years-3493e321) that the US Department of Justice has widened its criminal investigation into whether Elon Musk improperly received Tesla funds for development of a personal residence, and that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has an ongoing civil investigation regarding the same matter.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, prior to January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that either of the following have occured:\n\n1. The US federal government has filed criminal charges against Elon Musk, alleging one or more violations of US federal law\n2. 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"2023-09-20T15:15:12.775324Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T20:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-02T20:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Stepanakert, also known as Khankendi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepanakert), is the largest city in the [Nagorno-Karabakh region](https://freedomhouse.org/country/nagorno-karabakh). The region is mostly ethnic Armenian, but is a *de jure* part of Azerbaijan, which has led to [continuous disputes and two wars](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict). \n\nThe region is [accessible from Armenia via the Lachin corridor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66852070):\n\n<img src=\"https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/97A7/production/_131132883_armenia_azerbaijan_nagorno_karabakh_v8-nc.png.webp\" alt=\"Description of image\" />\n\nAzerbaijan blockaded this route to Nagorno-Karabakh in December 2022, leading to [shortages](https://freedomhouse.org/country/nagorno-karabakh/freedom-world/2023) of food and medical supplies.\n\nOn September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan [launched an \"anti-terror\" operation](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66851975) in Nagorno-Karabakh and demanded \"'illegal Armenian military formations' to hand over arms and dissolve their 'illegal regime'.\" Azerbaijan's actions were condemed by Western nations, including the United States, which [urged](https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-azerbaijani-president-aliyev-16/) \"Azerbaijan to cease military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh immediately and deescalate the situation.\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, on September 30, 2023, the consensus of credible reports is that Stepanakert / Khankendi is under de facto Azerbaijani control. It resolves **No** if the consensus of credible reports is that Stepanakert / Khankendi is under control of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/the Republic of Artsakh, or another breakaway entity. The question also resolves **No** if the consensus of credible reports is that control of the city is disputed.\n\nThe question resolves **Ambiguously** if there is no consensus of credible reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18860, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696096502.950468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696096502.950468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9360943314247863 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011242112788187486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3234197867773341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.574876012454822e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8508247136245815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022825326475133568, 0.0, 0.006665149422321157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020590647817486253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04043827294189417, 0.0, 0.011348644094509024, 0.021177014631405623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008902690241715132, 0.019630909151018897, 0.02645172563782025, 0.08443531297167729, 0.051988623631701286, 0.016823740850367048, 0.0, 0.4908599983159327, 0.05656779911848435, 1.344601313887127, 0.020905937158737963, 0.11614179995137472, 0.8121001249722453, 15.150564111421719 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.972758892183627, "coverage": 0.9992755716061981, "baseline_score": 88.58060619758325, "spot_peer_score": 87.07475168099143, "peer_archived_score": 11.972758892183627, "baseline_archived_score": 88.58060619758325, "spot_peer_archived_score": 87.07475168099143 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696096502.985622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696096502.985622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.009001981851645358, 0.9909980181483546 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 405, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Stepanakert, also known as Khankendi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepanakert), is the largest city in the [Nagorno-Karabakh region](https://freedomhouse.org/country/nagorno-karabakh). The region is mostly ethnic Armenian, but is a *de jure* part of Azerbaijan, which has led to [continuous disputes and two wars](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict). \n\nThe region is [accessible from Armenia via the Lachin corridor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66852070):\n\n<img src=\"https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/97A7/production/_131132883_armenia_azerbaijan_nagorno_karabakh_v8-nc.png.webp\" alt=\"Description of image\" />\n\nAzerbaijan blockaded this route to Nagorno-Karabakh in December 2022, leading to [shortages](https://freedomhouse.org/country/nagorno-karabakh/freedom-world/2023) of food and medical supplies.\n\nOn September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan [launched an \"anti-terror\" operation](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66851975) in Nagorno-Karabakh and demanded \"'illegal Armenian military formations' to hand over arms and dissolve their 'illegal regime'.\" Azerbaijan's actions were condemed by Western nations, including the United States, which [urged](https://www.state.gov/secretary-blinkens-call-with-azerbaijani-president-aliyev-16/) \"Azerbaijan to cease military actions in Nagorno-Karabakh immediately and deescalate the situation.\"" }, { "id": 18859, "title": "Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?", "short_title": "UNSC Resolution on Nagorno Karabakh?", "url_title": "UNSC Resolution on Nagorno Karabakh?", "slug": "unsc-resolution-on-nagorno-karabakh", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-19T23:38:38.015371Z", "published_at": "2023-09-20T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.393414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-20T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T16:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T16:48:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-20T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": 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"is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18859, "title": "Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-09-19T23:38:38.015371Z", "open_time": "2023-09-20T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-20T15:17:28.913096Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-20T15:17:28.913096Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T16:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T16:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-01T16:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan [launched a military operation](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66852070) in Nagorno-Karabakh, a [breakaway region](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict) that has been the location of ongoing conflict - and two wars - between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia. \n\n<img src=\"https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/97A7/production/_131132883_armenia_azerbaijan_nagorno_karabakh_v8-nc.png.webp\" alt=\"Description of image\" />\n\nAzerbaijan [dubbed its actions \"anti-terrorist activities.\"](https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-happening-between-armenia-azerbaijan-over-nagorno-karabakh-2023-09-19/) Armenia's Prime Minister [accused](https://oc-media.org/live-updates-stepanakert-under-fire-as-war-breaks-out-in-nagorno-karabakh/) Azerbaijan of trying to draw Armenia into a military conflict.\n\nFrance condemned Azerbaijan's actions and [called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council](https://www.barrons.com/news/france-seeks-urgent-un-security-council-meeting-on-karabakh-fighting-7ec54484). Armenian media reported the meeting would [convene on September 21st](https://en.armradio.am/2023/09/20/un-security-council-to-hold-emergency-meeting-on-nagorno-karabakh-on-september-21/). A previous emergency meeting [in August](https://apnews.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-nagornokarabakh-un-blockade-meeting-catastrophe-306273f542bba9b16d3f4cca57d4c8a8) did not result in a Security Council resolution. \n\nRussia holds a permanent seat on the Security Council, and Russian peacekeeping troops are [in Nagorno-Karbakh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nagorno-Karabakh_clashes#Background). Historically Armenia has been one of Russia's closest allies, but last week Armenia conducted [joint drills with US soldiers](https://www.politico.eu/article/we-cant-rely-russia-protect-us-anymore-nikol-pashinyan-armenia-pm/). Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told Politico:\n\n> “Our strategy should be to try in this situation to maximally decrease our dependency on others. We want to have an independent country, a sovereign country, but we have to have ways to avoid ending up in the center of clashes between West and East, North and South … There cannot be a case when Armenia becomes a ‘proxy.’ This is not permissible.”", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the UN Security Council [adopts a resolution](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/resolutions-adopted-security-council-2023) related to the [2023 Nagorno-Karabakh clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nagorno-Karabakh_clashes) before October 1, 2023. A Security Council resolution that does not mention Nagorno-Karabakh, but mentions both Armenia and Azerbaijan, will also be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18859, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696093536.608852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696093536.608852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.038359452155072984 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.863130871973901, 6.896900279482772, 0.16260494754215732, 0.0, 0.002181895179420165, 0.7575386153818054, 0.0, 0.016335126798566385, 0.0028798828583328074, 0.0016134421732207857, 0.49817026620166716, 0.0275524712565069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4173353600950991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002809175117399587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025334624450131557, 0.0, 0.6835854396792213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3307535733100695, 0.0, 0.00018564709102016926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013717567701513151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.028605765194287, "coverage": 0.9989823589787462, "baseline_score": 95.56536633802439, "spot_peer_score": 8.73431302014256, "peer_archived_score": 8.028605765194287, "baseline_archived_score": 95.56536633802439, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.73431302014256 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696093536.633689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696093536.633689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 285, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan [launched a military operation](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66852070) in Nagorno-Karabakh, a [breakaway region](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/nagorno-karabakh-conflict) that has been the location of ongoing conflict - and two wars - between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia. \n\n<img src=\"https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/97A7/production/_131132883_armenia_azerbaijan_nagorno_karabakh_v8-nc.png.webp\" alt=\"Description of image\" />\n\nAzerbaijan [dubbed its actions \"anti-terrorist activities.\"](https://www.reuters.com/world/what-is-happening-between-armenia-azerbaijan-over-nagorno-karabakh-2023-09-19/) Armenia's Prime Minister [accused](https://oc-media.org/live-updates-stepanakert-under-fire-as-war-breaks-out-in-nagorno-karabakh/) Azerbaijan of trying to draw Armenia into a military conflict.\n\nFrance condemned Azerbaijan's actions and [called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council](https://www.barrons.com/news/france-seeks-urgent-un-security-council-meeting-on-karabakh-fighting-7ec54484). Armenian media reported the meeting would [convene on September 21st](https://en.armradio.am/2023/09/20/un-security-council-to-hold-emergency-meeting-on-nagorno-karabakh-on-september-21/). A previous emergency meeting [in August](https://apnews.com/article/armenia-azerbaijan-nagornokarabakh-un-blockade-meeting-catastrophe-306273f542bba9b16d3f4cca57d4c8a8) did not result in a Security Council resolution. \n\nRussia holds a permanent seat on the Security Council, and Russian peacekeeping troops are [in Nagorno-Karbakh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nagorno-Karabakh_clashes#Background). Historically Armenia has been one of Russia's closest allies, but last week Armenia conducted [joint drills with US soldiers](https://www.politico.eu/article/we-cant-rely-russia-protect-us-anymore-nikol-pashinyan-armenia-pm/). Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told Politico:\n\n> “Our strategy should be to try in this situation to maximally decrease our dependency on others. We want to have an independent country, a sovereign country, but we have to have ways to avoid ending up in the center of clashes between West and East, North and South … There cannot be a case when Armenia becomes a ‘proxy.’ This is not permissible.”" }, { "id": 18857, "title": "Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?", "short_title": "Finnish presidential elections second round?", "url_title": "Finnish presidential elections second round?", "slug": "finnish-presidential-elections-second-round", "author_id": 154710, "author_username": "Miestari", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-19T21:04:21.976419Z", "published_at": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.448257Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-28T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-28T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-28T21:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-28T21:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" 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"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18857, "title": "Will a second round of voting be held in the 2024 Finnish presidential elections?", "created_at": "2023-09-19T21:04:21.976419Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-18T18:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-18T18:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-28T21:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-28T21:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-28T21:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-28T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-28T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Finnish_presidential_election):\n\n>Presidential elections are expected to be held in Finland on Sunday, 28 January 2024, with a possible second round on Sunday, 11 February 2024. \n\nThe President is elected by a direct vote, if necessary in two rounds. If one of the candidates receives more than half of the (approved) votes cast in the election, he/she is elected President. If none of the candidates has received a majority of the votes cast, a new election shall be held between the two candidates who received most votes in the first election. The candidate receiving most votes in the second round is elected President. \n\nThe Constituency Electoral Committee of Helsinki confirmed the final nomination of candidates on 21 December 2023.\n\nGeneral information about on the presidential elections from the Finnish MOJ:\n<https://vaalit.fi/en/presidential-election>\n\nSchedule for the 2024 presidential election from the Finnish MOJ:\n<https://vaalit.fi/en/schedule-in-the-presidential-election>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes**, if following the first round of the presidential election on January 28, 2024, the Finnish government declares that none of the candidates received more than half of the votes cast and that a second election between the two candidates who received the most votes will be held.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18857, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706459356.312068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.982 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706459356.312068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.982 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9427809587829288 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035270647198307447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003321849130956136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5660669897015576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.73622197439902, 0.0, 0.0006727592223594752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008075971130011883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6445418235791398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004466182328135157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04871973276129222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028002997661976538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7752926901367718, 0.0, 0.03185783175224878, 0.9949734086643023, 13.572716782035771 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.085665271098048, "coverage": 0.9998512374338369, "baseline_score": 97.7753373580913, "spot_peer_score": 13.497450251694396, "peer_archived_score": 8.085665271098048, "baseline_archived_score": 97.7753373580913, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.497450251694396 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706459356.350874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706459356.350874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.030105511573922383, 0.9698944884260776 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 180, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Finnish_presidential_election):\n\n>Presidential elections are expected to be held in Finland on Sunday, 28 January 2024, with a possible second round on Sunday, 11 February 2024. \n\nThe President is elected by a direct vote, if necessary in two rounds. If one of the candidates receives more than half of the (approved) votes cast in the election, he/she is elected President. If none of the candidates has received a majority of the votes cast, a new election shall be held between the two candidates who received most votes in the first election. The candidate receiving most votes in the second round is elected President. \n\nThe Constituency Electoral Committee of Helsinki confirmed the final nomination of candidates on 21 December 2023.\n\nGeneral information about on the presidential elections from the Finnish MOJ:\n<https://vaalit.fi/en/presidential-election>\n\nSchedule for the 2024 presidential election from the Finnish MOJ:\n<https://vaalit.fi/en/schedule-in-the-presidential-election>" }, { "id": 18854, "title": "Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?", "short_title": "GOP Calls Speaker Vote Before October?", "url_title": "GOP Calls Speaker Vote Before October?", "slug": "gop-calls-speaker-vote-before-october", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-19T20:12:44.757298Z", "published_at": "2023-09-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.553705Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18854, "title": "Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-09-19T20:12:44.757298Z", "open_time": "2023-09-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-20T15:18:21.879797Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-20T15:18:21.879797Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*See the previous edition of this question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14483/gop-member-calls-speaker-vote-before-july/).*\n\n---\n\n[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.\n\nThe rules for the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress adopt [those of the 117th Congress](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117/xml/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117.xml) with some amendments. The relevant portion of the rules is Rule IX, the text of which is quoted below. The [amended rules](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/5/text) remove subparagraph (3) of clause 2(a) (shown in bold).\n\n>1\\. Questions of privilege shall be, first, those affecting the rights of the House collectively, its safety, dignity, and the integrity of its proceedings; and second, those affecting the rights, reputation, and conduct of Members, Delegates, or the Resident Commissioner, individually, in their representative capacity only.\n>\n>2\\. (a)(1) A resolution reported as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered from the floor by the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered as privileged under clause 1, section 7, article I of the Constitution, shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn. A resolution offered from the floor by a Member, Delegate, or Resident Commissioner other than the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn only at a time or place, designated by the Speaker, in the legislative schedule within two legislative days after the day on which the proponent announces to the House an intention to offer the resolution and the form of the resolution. Oral announcement of the form of the resolution may be dispensed with by unanimous consent.\n>\n>(2) The time allotted for debate on a resolution offered from the floor as a question of the privileges of the House shall be equally divided between (A) the proponent of the resolution, and (B) the Majority Leader, the Minority Leader, or a designee, as determined by the Speaker.\n>\n>**(3) A resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker shall not be privileged except if offered by direction of a party caucus or conference.**\n>\n>(b) A question of personal privilege shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn.\n\nOn September 19, 2023, journalist Matt Laslo claimed to have discovered a draft motion to vacate the office of Speaker of the House in a bathroom in the US Capitol, with [Matt Gaetz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Gaetz) as the member to submit the resolution.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2023, a member of the Republican Party introduces a resolution to remove Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House and a vote on the resolution is held. Both the introduction of the resolution and the vote must occur before October 1, 2023. Otherwise this question resolves as **No**. The outcome of the vote and any such resolutions introduced by representatives who are not Republicans are irrelevant for the purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18854, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696109674.888417, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696109674.888417, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01291156987342752 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.393450555964583, 8.514046030077424, 0.6011534465135076, 0.45393207106868905, 0.010736677058042682, 0.21405365646946292, 0.0, 0.005750031082171319, 0.0, 0.0376477651787916, 0.19453711383218303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07784815699000376, 0.012034017844787867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024106620371220543, 0.07210060232265658, 0.01640066199948675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09748043419697767, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.7485003180140826, "coverage": 0.9999415038205056, "baseline_score": 93.89829760260092, "spot_peer_score": 9.162904859895141, "peer_archived_score": 2.7485003180140826, "baseline_archived_score": 93.89829760260092, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.162904859895141 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696109674.922839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696109674.922839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 241, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*See the previous edition of this question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14483/gop-member-calls-speaker-vote-before-july/).*\n\n---\n\n[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.\n\nThe rules for the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress adopt [those of the 117th Congress](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117/xml/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117.xml) with some amendments. The relevant portion of the rules is Rule IX, the text of which is quoted below. The [amended rules](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/5/text) remove subparagraph (3) of clause 2(a) (shown in bold).\n\n>1\\. Questions of privilege shall be, first, those affecting the rights of the House collectively, its safety, dignity, and the integrity of its proceedings; and second, those affecting the rights, reputation, and conduct of Members, Delegates, or the Resident Commissioner, individually, in their representative capacity only.\n>\n>2\\. (a)(1) A resolution reported as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered from the floor by the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered as privileged under clause 1, section 7, article I of the Constitution, shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn. A resolution offered from the floor by a Member, Delegate, or Resident Commissioner other than the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn only at a time or place, designated by the Speaker, in the legislative schedule within two legislative days after the day on which the proponent announces to the House an intention to offer the resolution and the form of the resolution. Oral announcement of the form of the resolution may be dispensed with by unanimous consent.\n>\n>(2) The time allotted for debate on a resolution offered from the floor as a question of the privileges of the House shall be equally divided between (A) the proponent of the resolution, and (B) the Majority Leader, the Minority Leader, or a designee, as determined by the Speaker.\n>\n>**(3) A resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker shall not be privileged except if offered by direction of a party caucus or conference.**\n>\n>(b) A question of personal privilege shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn.\n\nOn September 19, 2023, journalist Matt Laslo claimed to have discovered a draft motion to vacate the office of Speaker of the House in a bathroom in the US Capitol, with [Matt Gaetz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Gaetz) as the member to submit the resolution." }, { "id": 18842, "title": "Will Turkey recognize the Armenian genocide before 2050?", "short_title": "Turkey recognition of Armenian genocide", "url_title": "Turkey recognition of Armenian genocide", "slug": "turkey-recognition-of-armenian-genocide", "author_id": 124260, "author_username": "adssx", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-17T20:57:39.765006Z", "published_at": "2023-11-16T22:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:00:55.575002Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-16T22:16:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-16T22:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18842, "title": "Will Turkey recognize the Armenian genocide before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-09-17T20:57:39.765006Z", "open_time": "2023-11-16T22:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-19T22:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-19T22:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many historians and scholars outside Turkey, and an increasing number of Turkish scholars, believe that [the mass murder of one million Armenians during death marches to the Syrian Desert and the forced Islamization of women and children committed by the Ottoman Empire from 1915 to 1923 constituted genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_genocide). For instance, in 1997, the International Association of Genocide Scholars (IAGS) passed [a resolution](https://genocidescholars.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/IAGSArmenian-Genocide-Resolution-_0.pdf) unanimously recognizing the Ottoman massacres of Armenians as genocide.\n\nAs of 2023, governments and parliaments of 34 countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Russia, and the United States, have formally [recognized the Armenian genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_genocide_recognition). Three countries — Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan — deny that there was an Armenian genocide.\n\nThe Turkish government maintains that the mass deportation of Armenians was a legitimate action to combat an existential threat to the empire but that there was no intention to exterminate the Armenian people. Türkiye objects to presenting the \"events of 1915\" as \"genocide,\" describing them as \"[a tragedy in which both sides suffered casualties](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/1915-events-used-against-turkiye-for-political-purposes-communications-director/2878524)\". However, since 2014, Prime Minister and then President [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has expressed condolences to the descendants of Armenians who lost their lives in 1915 on April 24](https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/speeches-statements/558/127694/the-message-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-sent-to-armenian-patriarch-of-turkey-reverend-sahak-masalyan)—the Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day.\n\nWill the Turkish government officially recognize the \"events of 1915\" as a genocide before 2050?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before 01-01-2050, reliable media sources report that the Turkish government formally recognizes the events of 1915 as a genocide.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18842, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758492045.335723, "end_time": 1782651148.30806, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758492045.335723, "end_time": 1782651148.30806, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1340675947363404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5658775353566023, 0.0, 1.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.22554066198605002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.3775654150354807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287485.736459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287485.736459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9701737923361898, 0.02982620766381012 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many historians and scholars outside Turkey, and an increasing number of Turkish scholars, believe that [the mass murder of one million Armenians during death marches to the Syrian Desert and the forced Islamization of women and children committed by the Ottoman Empire from 1915 to 1923 constituted genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_genocide). For instance, in 1997, the International Association of Genocide Scholars (IAGS) passed [a resolution](https://genocidescholars.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/IAGSArmenian-Genocide-Resolution-_0.pdf) unanimously recognizing the Ottoman massacres of Armenians as genocide.\n\nAs of 2023, governments and parliaments of 34 countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Russia, and the United States, have formally [recognized the Armenian genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armenian_genocide_recognition). Three countries — Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Pakistan — deny that there was an Armenian genocide.\n\nThe Turkish government maintains that the mass deportation of Armenians was a legitimate action to combat an existential threat to the empire but that there was no intention to exterminate the Armenian people. Türkiye objects to presenting the \"events of 1915\" as \"genocide,\" describing them as \"[a tragedy in which both sides suffered casualties](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkiye/1915-events-used-against-turkiye-for-political-purposes-communications-director/2878524)\". However, since 2014, Prime Minister and then President [Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has expressed condolences to the descendants of Armenians who lost their lives in 1915 on April 24](https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/speeches-statements/558/127694/the-message-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-sent-to-armenian-patriarch-of-turkey-reverend-sahak-masalyan)—the Armenian Genocide Remembrance Day.\n\nWill the Turkish government officially recognize the \"events of 1915\" as a genocide before 2050?" }, { "id": 18841, "title": "Will Idaho gain at least one of Oregon's counties before 2040?", "short_title": "Idaho/Oregon border change before 2040", "url_title": "Idaho/Oregon border change before 2040", "slug": "idahooregon-border-change-before-2040", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-17T16:39:28.680788Z", "published_at": "2023-10-07T20:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:45:00.108868Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-07T20:32:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-07T20:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18841, "title": "Will Idaho gain at least one of Oregon's counties before 2040?", "created_at": "2023-09-17T16:39:28.680788Z", "open_time": "2023-10-07T20:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-09T20:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-09T20:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Greater Idaho movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Idaho_movement) is an activist movement for counties in eastern Oregon to secede from Oregon and join Idaho instead. The politically conservative population of rural eastern Oregon is largely powerless in Oregon’s state government (which is dominated by Democrats) and is culturally much more similar to the population of Idaho (which is largely governed by Republicans). [Proponents](https://www.greateridaho.org/) of the movement argue that adding eastern Oregon to Idaho would benefit eastern Oregon, Idaho, and western Oregon alike and that it would have no substantial effects on the balance of power in Congress or in the Electoral College. There is demonstrated support for the movement both in eastern Oregon and in Idaho, but actually changing the Oregon–Idaho border requires acquiescence by both states’ governments as well as Congress.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve Yes if, before January 1st, 2040, credible sources report that the border of Oregon and Idaho has changed such that at least one county [currently in Oregon](https://sos.oregon.gov/archives/records/county/Pages/county-histories.aspx) (as of January 1st, 2023) is now within [Idaho](https://www.idaho.gov/counties/).\n\nThe question resolves No on January 1st, 2040, if the above condition has not been met.", "fine_print": "Positive resolution does not require the county itself to continue to exist as a county in Idaho; the question simply asks whether the *land* making up that county has changed sides.\n\nThe names of the states and counties involved are irrelevant to resolution. Thus, if Idaho changes its name when it absorbs counties from Oregon, the question still resolves positively.", "post_id": 18841, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758491089.312159, "end_time": 1767765785.284194, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758491089.312159, "end_time": 1767765785.284194, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10619961317995473 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.10352427088835169, 1.4812488642785226, 0.04978706836786394, 0.07533680859673718, 1.3856289414269067, 0.34747498362895457, 0.0, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287196.254913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287196.254913, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9460285844492511, 0.05397141555074891 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Greater Idaho movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Idaho_movement) is an activist movement for counties in eastern Oregon to secede from Oregon and join Idaho instead. The politically conservative population of rural eastern Oregon is largely powerless in Oregon’s state government (which is dominated by Democrats) and is culturally much more similar to the population of Idaho (which is largely governed by Republicans). [Proponents](https://www.greateridaho.org/) of the movement argue that adding eastern Oregon to Idaho would benefit eastern Oregon, Idaho, and western Oregon alike and that it would have no substantial effects on the balance of power in Congress or in the Electoral College. There is demonstrated support for the movement both in eastern Oregon and in Idaho, but actually changing the Oregon–Idaho border requires acquiescence by both states’ governments as well as Congress." }, { "id": 18839, "title": "Will mind uploading happen before AGI?", "short_title": "Mind Uploading Before AGI?", "url_title": "Mind Uploading Before AGI?", "slug": "mind-uploading-before-agi", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-17T12:15:07.331283Z", "published_at": "2023-12-16T23:09:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:49:00.858333Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-16T23:09:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-16T23:09:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T14:43:31.795105Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T14:43:31.795105Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18839, "title": "Will mind uploading happen before AGI?", "created_at": "2023-09-17T12:15:07.331283Z", "open_time": "2023-12-16T23:09:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-19T23:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-19T23:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At present, the leading answer, by a significant margin, to [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliezer_Yudkowsky)'s Manifold Markets question, \"[If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?](https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence)\", is \"Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.\"\n\nThis question asks about the likelihood of human mind uploading happening before AGI. I believe this is an important question, because if it turns out that mind uploading first is intractably unlikely, then that should substantially reduce our confidence in an AI safety plan that relies on this happening. On the other hand, if mind uploading first is likely, then this should presumably be an important consideration for people working in AI safety and AI governance. (I find it surprising how infrequently mind uploading is mentioned by such people given the current predictions on Eliezer's question.) And if mind uploading first is around even odds, then this would imply that marginal effort put towards speeding up mind uploading timelines could be very impactful.\n\nAs far as I am aware, there have been few efforts to forecast mind uploading: There are technical reports on mind uploading, notably [Sandberg and Bostrom (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) and [Eth, Foust and Whale (2013)](https://sciendo.com/article/10.2478/jagi-2013-0008) but these do not include quantitative forecasts. I did manage to find four Manifold Markets questions on mind uploading, but [the first](https://manifold.markets/HarlanStewart/will-the-mind-of-a-c-elegans-roundw) is about C. elegans (a very simple organism that would be _much_ easier to upload than a human), [the second](https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-we-have-a-reliable-way-of-uplo) and [third](https://manifold.markets/Logaems/human-whole-brain-emulation-before) have few forecasters/traders, and the second, third and [fourth](https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-a-human-brain-be-uploaded-by-2) are confounded with AGI timelines—i.e., because if AGI goes well, presumably mind uploading comes very soon after, and it's unclear how many of the traders are betting on this sequence of events; what matters for AI safety is whether mind uploading happens before AGI, not the absolute timeline.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if human mind uploading happens before artificial general intelligence (AGI).\n\nWe define AGI as in our \"[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)\" question. The resolution value of that question will be the date AGI is considered to have arrived for this question.\n\nWe define human mind uploading as having happened once there are three credible media reports that a whole human brain has been digitally uploaded, with preservation of psychological continuity. (The exact wording \"psychological continuity\" does not need to be present in the media reports; if there is ambiguity over whether a report counts, this will be resolved by the question author, or, failing that, by a panel of three Metaculus admins.)\n\n(Note: there don't appear to be standardly used definitions in the whole brain emulation / mind uploading literature, but the type of mind uploading this question refers to is called a \"person emulation\" in [Sandberg and Bostrom](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf).)\n\n> The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is so faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18839, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757648140.382492, "end_time": 1759088129.854493, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757648140.382492, "end_time": 1759088129.854493, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03250350995453632 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.206554195147545, 7.801535329552927, 1.1961592043865097, 0.7949272408724712, 0.19869184071352886, 0.029454592434088156, 0.03346624331280049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004303387677233397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055462567570394805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012117839732328766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14169919136317252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37538668734720954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288914.906739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288914.906739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9971330325199633, 0.002866967480036684 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 170, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At present, the leading answer, by a significant margin, to [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliezer_Yudkowsky)'s Manifold Markets question, \"[If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?](https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence)\", is \"Humanity successfully coordinates worldwide to prevent the creation of powerful AGIs for long enough to develop human intelligence augmentation, uploading, or some other pathway into transcending humanity's window of fragility.\"\n\nThis question asks about the likelihood of human mind uploading happening before AGI. I believe this is an important question, because if it turns out that mind uploading first is intractably unlikely, then that should substantially reduce our confidence in an AI safety plan that relies on this happening. On the other hand, if mind uploading first is likely, then this should presumably be an important consideration for people working in AI safety and AI governance. (I find it surprising how infrequently mind uploading is mentioned by such people given the current predictions on Eliezer's question.) And if mind uploading first is around even odds, then this would imply that marginal effort put towards speeding up mind uploading timelines could be very impactful.\n\nAs far as I am aware, there have been few efforts to forecast mind uploading: There are technical reports on mind uploading, notably [Sandberg and Bostrom (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) and [Eth, Foust and Whale (2013)](https://sciendo.com/article/10.2478/jagi-2013-0008) but these do not include quantitative forecasts. I did manage to find four Manifold Markets questions on mind uploading, but [the first](https://manifold.markets/HarlanStewart/will-the-mind-of-a-c-elegans-roundw) is about C. elegans (a very simple organism that would be _much_ easier to upload than a human), [the second](https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-we-have-a-reliable-way-of-uplo) and [third](https://manifold.markets/Logaems/human-whole-brain-emulation-before) have few forecasters/traders, and the second, third and [fourth](https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-a-human-brain-be-uploaded-by-2) are confounded with AGI timelines—i.e., because if AGI goes well, presumably mind uploading comes very soon after, and it's unclear how many of the traders are betting on this sequence of events; what matters for AI safety is whether mind uploading happens before AGI, not the absolute timeline." }, { "id": 18789, "title": "Will the United States return to the gold standard before 2050?", "short_title": "US return to the gold standard by 2050", "url_title": "US return to the gold standard by 2050", "slug": "us-return-to-the-gold-standard-by-2050", "author_id": 129368, "author_username": "5789tool", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-15T20:53:51.745709Z", "published_at": "2023-09-29T22:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T20:36:46.580707Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-29T22:58:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-29T22:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18789, "title": "Will the United States return to the gold standard before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-09-15T20:53:51.745709Z", "open_time": "2023-09-29T22:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-30T05:01:30.191931Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-30T05:01:30.191931Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The gold standard was a monetary system where the value of a country's currency was directly tied to a specific quantity of gold. Under this system, paper money and coins were convertible into a fixed amount of gold, creating stability in currency values. The United States adopted the gold standard in the 19th century, and it played a significant role in shaping the country's monetary policy until it was effectively abandoned in the 20th century.\n\nKey historical milestones related to the gold standard in the United States:\n\n19th Century Adoption: The United States officially adopted the gold standard in 1834 with the passage of the Coinage Act. This set the price of gold at $20.67 per ounce.\n\nCivil War Era: During the Civil War (1861-1865), the U.S. government temporarily suspended the gold standard to finance the war effort, leading to the issuance of \"greenback\" paper money. The gold standard was reinstated after the war.\n\nBimetallism: In the late 19th century, there was a debate over bimetallism, which would allow both gold and silver to back the currency. This debate culminated in the 1896 presidential election, where William McKinley (pro-gold standard) defeated William Jennings Bryan (pro-silver standard).\n\n20th Century Abandonment: The United States effectively abandoned the gold standard during the Great Depression in the 1930s. President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102 in 1933, requiring individuals and institutions to turn in their gold holdings to the government in exchange for paper currency. The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 devalued the dollar in terms of gold.\n\nBretton Woods System: After World War II, the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 established a modified gold standard where the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold, and other currencies were pegged to the dollar. This system lasted until 1971 when President Richard Nixon ended the dollar's convertibility into gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system.\n\nCurrent Monetary System: Since 1971, the United States has operated on a fiat currency system, where the value of the dollar is not directly tied to a physical commodity like gold. The Federal Reserve controls the money supply and adjusts interest rates to manage the economy.\n\nThe question of whether the United States will return to the gold standard is a complex and highly debated topic. Advocates of a return to the gold standard argue that it would provide greater monetary stability and prevent excessive inflation. Critics, on the other hand, argue that it would limit the flexibility of monetary policy in responding to economic crises.\n\nFactors that would influence the likelihood and timing of a return to the gold standard include:\n\n- Economic conditions, including inflation rates and the stability of the U.S. dollar.\n\n- Political dynamics and the views of policymakers in Washington.\n\n- International monetary developments and agreements.\n\n- Public opinion and support for the gold standard.\n\n- Advances in technology and changes in the global economy.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if the United States government returns to the gold standard before 2050. The resolution should rely on publicly available information that is widely accessible and not subject to dispute or controversy.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18789, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758486995.484665, "end_time": 1778886019.175335, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758486995.484665, "end_time": 1778886019.175335, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.021006736578825822 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.653904353493942, 4.114132350603836, 1.4110528882774793, 0.3756459167785117, 0.0, 0.7912793091199047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029327142690001094, 0.0, 0.3110675292579698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009797596903721119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16454035208274115 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289910.609824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289910.609824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986220629239412, 0.001377937076058798 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The gold standard was a monetary system where the value of a country's currency was directly tied to a specific quantity of gold. Under this system, paper money and coins were convertible into a fixed amount of gold, creating stability in currency values. The United States adopted the gold standard in the 19th century, and it played a significant role in shaping the country's monetary policy until it was effectively abandoned in the 20th century.\n\nKey historical milestones related to the gold standard in the United States:\n\n19th Century Adoption: The United States officially adopted the gold standard in 1834 with the passage of the Coinage Act. This set the price of gold at $20.67 per ounce.\n\nCivil War Era: During the Civil War (1861-1865), the U.S. government temporarily suspended the gold standard to finance the war effort, leading to the issuance of \"greenback\" paper money. The gold standard was reinstated after the war.\n\nBimetallism: In the late 19th century, there was a debate over bimetallism, which would allow both gold and silver to back the currency. This debate culminated in the 1896 presidential election, where William McKinley (pro-gold standard) defeated William Jennings Bryan (pro-silver standard).\n\n20th Century Abandonment: The United States effectively abandoned the gold standard during the Great Depression in the 1930s. President Franklin D. Roosevelt issued Executive Order 6102 in 1933, requiring individuals and institutions to turn in their gold holdings to the government in exchange for paper currency. The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 devalued the dollar in terms of gold.\n\nBretton Woods System: After World War II, the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944 established a modified gold standard where the U.S. dollar was pegged to gold, and other currencies were pegged to the dollar. This system lasted until 1971 when President Richard Nixon ended the dollar's convertibility into gold, effectively ending the Bretton Woods system.\n\nCurrent Monetary System: Since 1971, the United States has operated on a fiat currency system, where the value of the dollar is not directly tied to a physical commodity like gold. The Federal Reserve controls the money supply and adjusts interest rates to manage the economy.\n\nThe question of whether the United States will return to the gold standard is a complex and highly debated topic. Advocates of a return to the gold standard argue that it would provide greater monetary stability and prevent excessive inflation. Critics, on the other hand, argue that it would limit the flexibility of monetary policy in responding to economic crises.\n\nFactors that would influence the likelihood and timing of a return to the gold standard include:\n\n- Economic conditions, including inflation rates and the stability of the U.S. dollar.\n\n- Political dynamics and the views of policymakers in Washington.\n\n- International monetary developments and agreements.\n\n- Public opinion and support for the gold standard.\n\n- Advances in technology and changes in the global economy." }, { "id": 18776, "title": "Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?", "short_title": "Will China Seize a Region of Russia by 2046?", "url_title": "Will China Seize a Region of Russia by 2046?", "slug": "will-china-seize-a-region-of-russia-by-2046", "author_id": 151696, "author_username": "foresightbureau", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-15T15:57:05.797877Z", "published_at": "2023-09-27T14:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T20:39:46.932065Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-27T14:25:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2046-01-01T00:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-27T14:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18776, "title": "Will China attempt to seize any region of Russia before 2046?", "created_at": "2023-09-15T15:57:05.797877Z", "open_time": "2023-09-27T14:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-27T21:59:39.448504Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-27T21:59:39.448504Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2046-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2046-01-01T00:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Recent [analyses](https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/how-chinas-water-challenges-could-lead-global-food-and-supply-chain-crisis) have [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/water-scarcity-china-and-india-look-the-most-threatened-from-shortages.html) that China is facing a growing water scarcity crisis that may have a significant impact on energy production, food availability, and access to domestic fresh water supplies. Factors leading to this impending catastrophe include water-intensive practices of multinational corporations operating in China, inefficient manufacturing, construction, and agriculture processes, and the impact of climate change. The Chinese government is making every effort to mitigate the crisis through water imports and [desalination](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-makes-desalination-push-ease-water-scarcity-2021-06-02/). The PRC has also recently initiated projects to transfer water from water-rich to water-scarce areas. One example is the [South-North Water Diversion Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South%E2%80%93North_Water_Transfer_Project), which aims to alleviate shortages in the north. The government believes the project's long-term benefits will go some way to alleviating the problem, but the project won't be fully complete until at least [2050](https://ceas.uchicago.edu/sites/ceas.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/sti2010-okeefe-water-diversion-china.pdf).\n\nIn the meantime if there’s a risk of civil unrest as a result of widespread water shortages, one drastic solution might be to encroach into Russian territory to obtain access to [Lake Baikal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Baikal) as it contains around 20% of the world’s fresh water. \n\nThe forecasting curation organization Foresight Bureau explores this possibility in more detail in their video: [“Will China occupy a region of Russia by 2045?”](https://tinyurl.com/CH-RUwaterwar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2046, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the People's Republic of China has launched an invasion of any area of Russian territory, defined as at least 100 overtly flagged military personnel from the [People's Liberation Army](https://www.nytimes.com/) having been deployed over the Russian border, with the operation believed to be for the purpose of placing any area of Russia’s sovereign territory under the control of the PRC.", "fine_print": "* If separatists or other unofficial pro-China actors seize control of a region in Russia the question will resolve as **Yes** if China sends at least 100 overtly flagged troops into the region without permission from Russia while Russia still claims to possess the territory in question.\n* A deployment of overtly flagged troops across the border that fails to capture territory is sufficient to result in the question resolving as **Yes**, if credible sources assess that the intent of the operation was to seize territory.\n* Russia peacefully allowing a region to vote to secede or become independent is not sufficient to qualify as \"seizing control\". To be considered \"seized\" the separatists or unofficial pro-China actors must use military force or the threat of military force to take control of the territory.\n* For the purposes of this question, in the case of territorial disputes or challenges to the legitimacy of either Russia or China, a successor government will be recognized as one which holds over 50% of the territory under the de facto control of the country on September 25, 2023, and whose political capital city is within that same territory. If the country no longer exists or has no successor as defined at the time of resolution, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt, and may make a determination as to appropriate resolution in the event of unclear or contradictory information, or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 18776, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758487176.824407, "end_time": 1766080852.21399, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758487176.824407, "end_time": 1766080852.21399, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1413467551196893 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4870598127668639, 0.694372843277798, 0.3889003014546095, 0.7003927598367212, 0.32411484068940505, 0.8334800915686879, 0.0794785392185516, 0.5763559556808797, 0.7594301791153819, 0.2492702314572886, 2.069224080075454, 0.0, 1.1786375733841892, 0.022225972450640584, 0.0, 3.121371081144839, 0.04809577689274304, 1.622387908792725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074107256276337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4247058044294796, 0.052577289157086836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4529037759716625, 0.0, 0.004826199276473362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026269324389587508, 0.036486146261818564, 0.05739703566227289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15045047261877945, 0.0, 0.007745309224094398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010028489695676875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050634840930635725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04393255368134378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042657439504144926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32660281038909744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005868104256488185 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289313.045696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289313.045696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9449572246703541, 0.05504277532964581 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Recent [analyses](https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/how-chinas-water-challenges-could-lead-global-food-and-supply-chain-crisis) have [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/water-scarcity-china-and-india-look-the-most-threatened-from-shortages.html) that China is facing a growing water scarcity crisis that may have a significant impact on energy production, food availability, and access to domestic fresh water supplies. Factors leading to this impending catastrophe include water-intensive practices of multinational corporations operating in China, inefficient manufacturing, construction, and agriculture processes, and the impact of climate change. The Chinese government is making every effort to mitigate the crisis through water imports and [desalination](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-makes-desalination-push-ease-water-scarcity-2021-06-02/). The PRC has also recently initiated projects to transfer water from water-rich to water-scarce areas. One example is the [South-North Water Diversion Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South%E2%80%93North_Water_Transfer_Project), which aims to alleviate shortages in the north. The government believes the project's long-term benefits will go some way to alleviating the problem, but the project won't be fully complete until at least [2050](https://ceas.uchicago.edu/sites/ceas.uchicago.edu/files/uploads/sti2010-okeefe-water-diversion-china.pdf).\n\nIn the meantime if there’s a risk of civil unrest as a result of widespread water shortages, one drastic solution might be to encroach into Russian territory to obtain access to [Lake Baikal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Baikal) as it contains around 20% of the world’s fresh water. \n\nThe forecasting curation organization Foresight Bureau explores this possibility in more detail in their video: [“Will China occupy a region of Russia by 2045?”](https://tinyurl.com/CH-RUwaterwar)" }, { "id": 18775, "title": "Will there be widespread adoption of e-fuels in the US before 2050?", "short_title": "US E-Fuels 2050", "url_title": "US E-Fuels 2050", "slug": "us-e-fuels-2050", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-15T11:48:19.952092Z", "published_at": "2023-10-05T19:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.386055Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-05T19:54:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-05T19:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18775, "title": "Will there be widespread adoption of e-fuels in the US before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-09-15T11:48:19.952092Z", "open_time": "2023-10-05T19:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-07T19:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-07T19:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While much of the current media coverage about the future of cars focuses on the adoption of battery-electric vehicles, lesser known (but probably just as important) is [Porsche's efforts to make a carbon-negative \"e-fuel.\"](https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2023/sustainability/porsche-perspectives-sustainability-interview-karl-dums-31632.html) If successfully implemented, the current fleet of internal combustion engine cars around the world could remain in operation while reducing carbon emissions. It would also allow the gas station infrastructure to remain intact. [However, e-fuels are currently rather expensive and require a large amount of non-green electricity to make.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d0MPg7DxbY)\n\nAs can be seen in this [chart](https://www.statista.com/statistics/188448/total-us-domestic-demand-for-gasoline-since-1990/), U.S. domestic demand for gasoline was 127.71 billion gallons in 2020. For the purpose of this question, 25 billion gallons of e-fuels purchased in America in any given year would constitute widespread adoption of e-fuels.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if it is widely reported by credible news sources that at least 25 billion gallons of e-fuels were purchased for use in road vehicles in America in any year before 2050. If not, this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, e-fuel does not necessarily mean a product created or distributed by Porsche. A sufficiently similar product would suffice, as determined by Metaculus admins.", "post_id": 18775, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719870213.728095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719870213.728095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2746278573572969 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 1.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.953138034557023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288847.220491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288847.220491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8223957734239233, 0.17760422657607666 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While much of the current media coverage about the future of cars focuses on the adoption of battery-electric vehicles, lesser known (but probably just as important) is [Porsche's efforts to make a carbon-negative \"e-fuel.\"](https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2023/sustainability/porsche-perspectives-sustainability-interview-karl-dums-31632.html) If successfully implemented, the current fleet of internal combustion engine cars around the world could remain in operation while reducing carbon emissions. It would also allow the gas station infrastructure to remain intact. [However, e-fuels are currently rather expensive and require a large amount of non-green electricity to make.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d0MPg7DxbY)\n\nAs can be seen in this [chart](https://www.statista.com/statistics/188448/total-us-domestic-demand-for-gasoline-since-1990/), U.S. domestic demand for gasoline was 127.71 billion gallons in 2020. For the purpose of this question, 25 billion gallons of e-fuels purchased in America in any given year would constitute widespread adoption of e-fuels." }, { "id": 18739, "title": "Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?", "short_title": "UK-India FTA before next election?", "url_title": "UK-India FTA before next election?", "slug": "uk-india-fta-before-next-election", "author_id": 154107, "author_username": "dc_lawrence", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-13T10:17:25.257314Z", "published_at": "2023-09-22T19:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.804073Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-22T19:24:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T17:48:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-22T19:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18739, "title": "Will the UK and India have signed an FTA before the next UK General Election?", "created_at": "2023-09-13T10:17:25.257314Z", "open_time": "2023-09-22T19:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-24T19:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-24T19:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T17:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-04T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T17:48:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UK and India are pursuing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). While both sides are keen to sign a deal (for political and economic reasons), there are some sticking points (on issues like IP, migration, digital), and FTAs generally take quite a long time (3-10 years) to negotiate. From the UK PM Rishi Sunak's perspective, getting a deal signed before the next General Election could be politically useful.\n\n[UK-India FTA, UK Parliamentary Committee](https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmintrade/77/report.html)\n\nThere is no firm date for the next UK General Election, but it has to take place (by law) by the end of January 2025. Many experts believe it will most likely be between May-November 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if reliable news sources report that a Free Trade Agreement has been signed by a representative from the UK Government and a representative from the Indian Government. This must be called a Free Trade Agreement, as defined by the World Trade Organization, and not another kind of agreement. This agreement does not have to be ratified to resolve positively, just signed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18739, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719565375.938769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.0988762751 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719565375.938769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.0988762751 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9011237249, 0.0988762751 ], "means": [ 0.0995166960895576 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0503027525030009, 1.70011308191749, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 0.7118165837590469, 0.11847113291540433, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2786828678212325, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.776948166013928, "coverage": 0.5741768101894092, "baseline_score": 41.0742587683451, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 2.776948166013928, "baseline_archived_score": 41.0742587683451, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719993386.859144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719993386.859144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9852985917404992, 0.01470140825950081 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UK and India are pursuing a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). While both sides are keen to sign a deal (for political and economic reasons), there are some sticking points (on issues like IP, migration, digital), and FTAs generally take quite a long time (3-10 years) to negotiate. From the UK PM Rishi Sunak's perspective, getting a deal signed before the next General Election could be politically useful.\n\n[UK-India FTA, UK Parliamentary Committee](https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5803/cmselect/cmintrade/77/report.html)\n\nThere is no firm date for the next UK General Election, but it has to take place (by law) by the end of January 2025. Many experts believe it will most likely be between May-November 2024." } ] }
