Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3060
{ "count": 6357, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3080", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3040", "results": [ { "id": 22915, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court issue a ruling in the Trump immunity case before May 20, 2024?", "short_title": "SCOTUS Trump Immunity Decision Before May 20?", "url_title": "SCOTUS Trump Immunity Decision Before May 20?", "slug": "scotus-trump-immunity-decision-before-may-20", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-29T17:53:06.571400Z", "published_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.193736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T15:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 272, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22915, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court issue a ruling in the Trump immunity case before May 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-29T17:53:06.571400Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T15:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump's criminal case for [election interference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)) raised a key question regarding [presidential immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_immunity_in_the_United_States), namely whether Trump is immune from criminal prosecution for actions taken while president. Trump's legal claims of presidential immunity were [rejected by lower courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_v._United_States_(2024)#Lower_court_history), but on February 28, 2024, the US Supreme Court [granted Trump's petition](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/trump-v-united-states-3/) to hear the case. How long the Supreme Court takes to announce its decision and the contents of its decision [could impact](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/28/how-the-supreme-court-just-threw-trumps-2024-trial-schedule-into-turmoil-00144043) whether the case is still underway during the presidential election in November.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 20, 2024, the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision on the merits of the Trump immunity case, *[Trump v. United States](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/argument_transcripts/2023/23-939_f2qg.pdf),* and/or remands, vacates, or issues a summary reversal in the case. The outcome of the case is immaterial, so long as a decision is issued.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22915, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716154106.896424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 272, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716154106.896424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 272, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.006178805697622789 ], "histogram": [ [ 22.274825521840427, 7.651248867496099, 0.35551830726470296, 0.32284820539250253, 0.35848167269039255, 0.19285506104235026, 0.0011760097277288036, 0.19791202846737294, 0.0002645513162040259, 0.001218158247953537, 0.005681049588752585, 0.0007731453840461877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001529877811795359, 0.00035881876404361495, 0.00203925786679753, 0.000159023938566308, 0.00031395128440657173, 0.0002802066208734199, 0.062007862338314644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010737221441994746, 0.0, 0.04557609522659516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8959363751302854e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.6333646645447384e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.246918584856712e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.844972099948493e-05, 0.011680171595482536, 0.0, 3.8873354788492075e-07, 2.5310628945992628e-06, 5.342915547664706e-05, 0.0, 1.8008653967338017e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.723869117962274e-06, 2.9001006470444e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3813869842631046e-06, 0.00013802075370943198, 0.00014904284327347053, 0.0, 1.968668078867261e-05, 7.965843919798926e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.241916045742719e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.61798275039347, "coverage": 0.9999890059551688, "baseline_score": 91.47363253745404, "spot_peer_score": 29.924391345990784, "peer_archived_score": 22.61798275039347, "baseline_archived_score": 91.47363253745404, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.924391345990784 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716154106.955739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 272, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716154106.955739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 272, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 802, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump's criminal case for [election interference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)) raised a key question regarding [presidential immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_immunity_in_the_United_States), namely whether Trump is immune from criminal prosecution for actions taken while president. Trump's legal claims of presidential immunity were [rejected by lower courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_v._United_States_(2024)#Lower_court_history), but on February 28, 2024, the US Supreme Court [granted Trump's petition](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/trump-v-united-states-3/) to hear the case. How long the Supreme Court takes to announce its decision and the contents of its decision [could impact](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/28/how-the-supreme-court-just-threw-trumps-2024-trial-schedule-into-turmoil-00144043) whether the case is still underway during the presidential election in November." }, { "id": 22914, "title": "Before May 20, 2024, will it be announced that Minouche Shafik will no longer be President of Columbia University?", "short_title": "Columbia University President Out By May 20?", "url_title": "Columbia University President Out By May 20?", "slug": "columbia-university-president-out-by-may-20", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-29T16:31:52.733447Z", "published_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.375687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 293, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22914, "title": "Before May 20, 2024, will it be announced that Minouche Shafik will no longer be President of Columbia University?", "created_at": "2024-04-29T16:31:52.733447Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-30T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Large protests [have occurred at a number of US universities](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/columbia-protests-live-update-encampment-continue-college-negotiates-p-rcna149111), with participants demonstrating against Israel's invasion of Gaza. Protests at Columbia University have been especially prominent, as protesters set up a large encampment resulting in a police response and [100 arrests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893185) made on April 18, 2024. In a [speech at the campus on April 24, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-speaker-mike-johnson-columbia-university-visit/), US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson called for university president Nemat Shafik to resign due to continued protests and encampments on campus. On April 29, [21 House Democrats](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/house-democrats-columbia-university-resign) sent a letter to Columbia University's board calling for the university to take action to disband the encampment or resign if they are unwilling to act. Also on April 29, Shafik said the University had been [unable to come to an agreement](https://president.columbia.edu/news/statement-columbia-university-president-minouche-shafik-4-29) with student organizers and urged \"those in the encampment to voluntarily disperse.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 20, 2024, if it is officially announced that [Minouche Shafik](https://president.columbia.edu/content/about-president-minouche-shafik) will cease to be President of Columbia University, for any reason. The question will still resolve as **Yes** if Shafik stays on as President past May 20, so long as an official announcement that she will cease to be president has been made before that date.", "fine_print": "* For an announcement to be considered \"official\" it must be made by Shafik or Columbia University.\n* An announcement of a leave of absence or temporary replacement, for any reason, will also be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 22914, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716154178.446005, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 293, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716154178.446005, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 293, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.008711894521341511 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.707090570899904, 9.063565174610005, 1.6077047925144021, 0.06311972758059782, 0.5334396832458361, 0.18791114107252696, 0.00028577813236649774, 0.0, 0.08603919134525947, 0.00016682566867679075, 0.4295708190700158, 0.0, 6.04598980898541e-05, 2.5937928378252582e-05, 0.00029835014779441995, 2.3574494091938128e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1505560449712029e-05, 0.0, 0.00015626822862326928, 0.0, 0.0024134301076194813, 4.009568177712956e-06, 3.444989511261475e-07, 2.826213178305216e-05, 9.078712362439883e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.223293762463392e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.031992237282296e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0008532461421891e-07, 0.012905981539230314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5144713659562728e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002640193996173212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00047111976492451196, 0.0002249921868346001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015961440668278576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1762946895986718e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.546938068523917e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0369965290142051 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.862235376785124, "coverage": 0.999976395940162, "baseline_score": 96.65891262780481, "spot_peer_score": 26.871365482104682, "peer_archived_score": 12.862235376785124, "baseline_archived_score": 96.65891262780481, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.871365482104682 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716154178.537915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 293, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716154178.537915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 293, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 908, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Large protests [have occurred at a number of US universities](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/columbia-protests-live-update-encampment-continue-college-negotiates-p-rcna149111), with participants demonstrating against Israel's invasion of Gaza. Protests at Columbia University have been especially prominent, as protesters set up a large encampment resulting in a police response and [100 arrests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893185) made on April 18, 2024. In a [speech at the campus on April 24, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-speaker-mike-johnson-columbia-university-visit/), US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson called for university president Nemat Shafik to resign due to continued protests and encampments on campus. On April 29, [21 House Democrats](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/house-democrats-columbia-university-resign) sent a letter to Columbia University's board calling for the university to take action to disband the encampment or resign if they are unwilling to act. Also on April 29, Shafik said the University had been [unable to come to an agreement](https://president.columbia.edu/news/statement-columbia-university-president-minouche-shafik-4-29) with student organizers and urged \"those in the encampment to voluntarily disperse.\"" }, { "id": 22910, "title": "Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?", "short_title": "Georgian Dream party wins in 2024?", "url_title": "Georgian Dream party wins in 2024?", "slug": "georgian-dream-party-wins-in-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-29T11:43:15.082962Z", "published_at": "2024-05-01T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.450460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-01T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-28T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-27T10:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15874, "name": "Global Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🕊️🌐", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22910, "title": "Will the Georgian Dream party win a majority of seats in Georgia's 2024 parliamentary elections?", "created_at": "2024-04-29T11:43:15.082962Z", "open_time": "2024-05-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-04T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-28T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-27T10:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-27T10:46:38.459590Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Due to recent [constitutional changes](https://civil.ge/archives/271293), the largely ceremonial role of President of Georgia is no longer determined through direct elections but instead through a 300 member college of electors, of whom half are members of Parliament. No debate on the Parliament floor is permitted prior to the vote. \n\nTherefore, the pivotal factor in determining the president will be the parliamentary elections. The Georgian Dream Party has been a strong force in the country, and it currently has 75 seats, which is 1 short of a majority. Since its founding in 2012, it has won a majority of seats in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if the Election Administration of Georgia or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#whatsort) report that the Georgian Dream Party has won a majority of seats in the Parliament of Georgia in the 2024 parliamentary elections.\n\nThe vote is scheduled for October 26, 2024.", "fine_print": "The threshold for a majority in the Parliament of Georgia is 76 seats, out of a total of 150. Only the seats won by the Georgian Dream party count for this question, not seats won by any coalition partners.\n\nThis question will be annulled if the parliamentary elections are not held or if election results have not been announced before January 1, 2025.", "post_id": 22910, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729714242.120598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729714242.120598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3479329619579407 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9972947335208391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.7010093570283769, 0.059105746561956225, 0.5184797798380378, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6129103354486256, 0.422729524609672, 0.12856727458371708, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.398652695512801, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08192406722053863, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06942549048455106 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 3.4388419266425045, "peer_score": -7.838949647553117, "coverage": 0.999318224180594, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999318224180594, "spot_peer_score": 24.095573461229947, "baseline_archived_score": 3.4388419266425045, "peer_archived_score": -7.838949647553117, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.095573461229947 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289366.865895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289366.865895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9332128549821382, 0.06678714501786172 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Due to recent [constitutional changes](https://civil.ge/archives/271293), the largely ceremonial role of President of Georgia is no longer determined through direct elections but instead through a 300 member college of electors, of whom half are members of Parliament. No debate on the Parliament floor is permitted prior to the vote. \n\nTherefore, the pivotal factor in determining the president will be the parliamentary elections. The Georgian Dream Party has been a strong force in the country, and it currently has 75 seats, which is 1 short of a majority. Since its founding in 2012, it has won a majority of seats in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 elections." }, { "id": 22791, "title": "Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024?", "short_title": "Tunisian Election Winner 2024", "url_title": "Tunisian Election Winner 2024", "slug": "tunisian-election-winner-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-26T19:21:25.069766Z", "published_at": "2024-05-02T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.642396Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-02T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-07T20:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T20:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-02T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15874, "name": "Global Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🕊️🌐", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3135, "type": "question_series", "name": "2024 International Elections Hub", "slug": "InternationalHub", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/elections-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-22T14:55:06Z", "close_date": "2025-04-22T14:55:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-22T14:55:06.538499Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-04T03:25:40.656773Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3135, "type": "question_series", "name": "2024 International Elections Hub", "slug": "InternationalHub", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/elections-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-22T14:55:06Z", "close_date": "2025-04-22T14:55:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-22T14:55:06.538499Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-04T03:25:40.656773Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22791, "title": "Will Kais Saied be re-elected President of Tunisia in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-26T19:21:25.069766Z", "open_time": "2024-05-02T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T20:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-28T08:02:58.168192Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-07T20:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 2024, President Kais Saied [announced](https://www.newarab.com/news/tunisias-kais-saied-announces-presidential-re-election-bid) he would be running for re-election in the 2024 election. He is regarded as an authoritarian by groups such as [Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/03/13/tunisia-ticking-authoritarian-checklist) and in 2021 successfully pulled off a [self-coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Tunisian_self-coup), suspending parliament and ruling the county by decree.\n\nWho Saied's opponents will be this fall is, as of April 2024, indeterminate. Opposition political leaders such as Abir Moussi, who ran against Saied in 2019, have been [arrested](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/4/tunisia-detains-abir-moussi-prominent-opponent-of-president). Lotfi Mraïhi, another electoral opponent from 2019, recently announced his candidacy but also [received](https://news-tunisia.tunisienumerique.com/beginning-of-problems-for-lotfi-mraihi-he-is-summoned-to-aouina-this-monday/) a 6 month suspended jail sentence on January 29, 2024. Rached Ghannouchi, president of the largest opposition party, [was sentenced](https://apnews.com/article/tunisia-politics-ghannouchi-sentenced-saied-ennahdha-08047c2d4ce9035d03ef11695736e309) in February 2024 to three years in prison on allegations of embezzlement. \n\nFor further background please see:\n\n[Africa Center for Strategic Studies - Tunisia](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/2024-elections/tunisia/)\n\n[Wikipedia 2024 Tunisian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tunisian_presidential_election)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if President Kais Saied wins the 2024 election for President of Tunisia, and **No** for any other result, such as him losing the election or a first round of the election not being held before January 1, 2025. Resolution will be based on the results reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nThe first round of voting is expected to be held in the latter third of 2024, with a runoff taking place if no candidate receives an absolute majority.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729793201.359356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729793201.359356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9396337446440755 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 4.689563477104795 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.86265255380923, "peer_score": 6.183406789932459, "coverage": 0.6497555727316335, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9943090037841411, "spot_peer_score": 1.231160046469472, "baseline_archived_score": 63.86265255380923, "peer_archived_score": 6.183406789932459, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.231160046469472 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289350.02317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289350.02317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.060768405865603725, 0.9392315941343963 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 2024, President Kais Saied [announced](https://www.newarab.com/news/tunisias-kais-saied-announces-presidential-re-election-bid) he would be running for re-election in the 2024 election. He is regarded as an authoritarian by groups such as [Human Rights Watch](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/03/13/tunisia-ticking-authoritarian-checklist) and in 2021 successfully pulled off a [self-coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Tunisian_self-coup), suspending parliament and ruling the county by decree.\n\nWho Saied's opponents will be this fall is, as of April 2024, indeterminate. Opposition political leaders such as Abir Moussi, who ran against Saied in 2019, have been [arrested](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/4/tunisia-detains-abir-moussi-prominent-opponent-of-president). Lotfi Mraïhi, another electoral opponent from 2019, recently announced his candidacy but also [received](https://news-tunisia.tunisienumerique.com/beginning-of-problems-for-lotfi-mraihi-he-is-summoned-to-aouina-this-monday/) a 6 month suspended jail sentence on January 29, 2024. Rached Ghannouchi, president of the largest opposition party, [was sentenced](https://apnews.com/article/tunisia-politics-ghannouchi-sentenced-saied-ennahdha-08047c2d4ce9035d03ef11695736e309) in February 2024 to three years in prison on allegations of embezzlement. \n\nFor further background please see:\n\n[Africa Center for Strategic Studies - Tunisia](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/2024-elections/tunisia/)\n\n[Wikipedia 2024 Tunisian presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tunisian_presidential_election)" }, { "id": 22790, "title": "Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?", "short_title": "PRC Invade Any Country Other Than Taiwan?", "url_title": "PRC Invade Any Country Other Than Taiwan?", "slug": "prc-invade-any-country-other-than-taiwan", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [ { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-26T18:29:16.785215Z", "published_at": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-08T03:14:54.456323Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22790, "title": "Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-04-26T18:29:16.785215Z", "open_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-06T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-06T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent decades the People's Republic of China has been engaged in a concerted effort to modernize its military, as detailed in [this](https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF) 212-page report issued by the Pentagon to the US Congress. The PRC now has the largest navy by number of ships, the largest aviation force in the Indo-Pacific region, the largest army by number of soldiers, and is the 2nd largest military spender in the world.\n\nIn 1962 and 1979, China engaged in conflicts with India and Vietnam, respectively, that would have caused a Yes resolution for this question. \n\nProspects for Invading Vietnam \n\nIn 2019, Rand Senior Defense Analyst Derek Grossman wrote [Vietnam Is the Chinese Military’s Preferred Warm-Up Fight](https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/vietnam-is-the-chinese-militarys-preferred-warm-up-fight/) in which he argues that with the worlds attention focused on Taiwan, China’s preferred target might actually be Vietnam. China faced a humiliating defeat to Vietnam in its [1979 invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War), and Vietnam lacks any sort of mutual protection agreement with the United States. So, from a military standpoint, it could be a good proving ground for the PLA. Notably, however, much of the PRC's conflict with Vietnam involves disputed islands, so it might be primarily an air and sea engagement.\n\nProspects for Invading India\n\nChina and India have [overlapping claims](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) in their border areas. According to Dr. Srini Sitaraman of the Daniel K. Inouye Center for Asia Pacific Studies on pages 11 and 12 in [this PDF](https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep26667.24?seq=11) of a chapter he wrote in a book about the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, China is the stronger power between it and India, and it is increasingly able to take a hardline position. China defeated India in the [Sino-Indian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War) of 1962, and India as the weaker power is the one seeking to hold onto territory in the present dispute.\n\nFor further background please see: \n\n- Wikipedia [Territorial disputes of the People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China)\n\n- Wikipedia [Territorial disputes in the South China Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea)\n\n- The Hill [Does China have designs on Siberia?](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3654427-does-china-have-designs-on-siberia/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before 2030, the People's Liberation Army has been deployed to another country without that country's permission, resulting in the military occupation of a material amount of that country's territory by the PLA.\n\nOtherwise this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nFor the purposes of this question the Republic of China/Taiwan will not be considered, even if it becomes a UN member state.\n\nA \"material amount\" of occupied territory is defined as encompassing a cumulative total of at least 500 square kilometers for any amount of time, according to credible sources such as the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/).", "fine_print": "For this question, a country is defined as a UN member state.\n\nIf the People's Republic of China ceases to exist then this question will resolve No.\n\nFor purposes of this question, areas that are not part of the official territory of a UN member state but are de facto controlled by a UN member state or areas that are acknowledged as part of its sovereignty, such as the [Wa State](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wa_State) controlled by Myanmar, will be considered part of that state. Any military deployment to such territories by the PLA without permission will count towards resolution.", "post_id": 22790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759893284.097717, "end_time": 1766256464.897748, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759893284.097717, "end_time": 1766256464.897748, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.14331558856452897 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8385925994312163, 2.6648096645273696, 0.6298688465053773, 1.6054415612724433, 0.18526809390665838, 1.0894549549648014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8342384382313044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288513.229554, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288513.229554, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9931282788316077, 0.006871721168392346 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent decades the People's Republic of China has been engaged in a concerted effort to modernize its military, as detailed in [this](https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF) 212-page report issued by the Pentagon to the US Congress. The PRC now has the largest navy by number of ships, the largest aviation force in the Indo-Pacific region, the largest army by number of soldiers, and is the 2nd largest military spender in the world.\n\nIn 1962 and 1979, China engaged in conflicts with India and Vietnam, respectively, that would have caused a Yes resolution for this question. \n\nProspects for Invading Vietnam \n\nIn 2019, Rand Senior Defense Analyst Derek Grossman wrote [Vietnam Is the Chinese Military’s Preferred Warm-Up Fight](https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/vietnam-is-the-chinese-militarys-preferred-warm-up-fight/) in which he argues that with the worlds attention focused on Taiwan, China’s preferred target might actually be Vietnam. China faced a humiliating defeat to Vietnam in its [1979 invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War), and Vietnam lacks any sort of mutual protection agreement with the United States. So, from a military standpoint, it could be a good proving ground for the PLA. Notably, however, much of the PRC's conflict with Vietnam involves disputed islands, so it might be primarily an air and sea engagement.\n\nProspects for Invading India\n\nChina and India have [overlapping claims](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) in their border areas. According to Dr. Srini Sitaraman of the Daniel K. Inouye Center for Asia Pacific Studies on pages 11 and 12 in [this PDF](https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep26667.24?seq=11) of a chapter he wrote in a book about the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, China is the stronger power between it and India, and it is increasingly able to take a hardline position. China defeated India in the [Sino-Indian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_War) of 1962, and India as the weaker power is the one seeking to hold onto territory in the present dispute.\n\nFor further background please see: \n\n- Wikipedia [Territorial disputes of the People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China)\n\n- Wikipedia [Territorial disputes in the South China Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea)\n\n- The Hill [Does China have designs on Siberia?](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3654427-does-china-have-designs-on-siberia/)" }, { "id": 22787, "title": "Will the San Francisco Bay Area experience an earthquake of at least 3.0 magnitude during the seven-day period ending midday on May 14th, 2024?", "short_title": "3.0 Earthquake in SF Week Ending May 14?", "url_title": "3.0 Earthquake in SF Week Ending May 14?", "slug": "30-earthquake-in-sf-week-ending-may-14", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-26T16:55:17.460616Z", "published_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.384467Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T00:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T00:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 227, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22787, "title": "Will the San Francisco Bay Area experience an earthquake of at least 3.0 magnitude during the seven-day period ending midday on May 14th, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-26T16:55:17.460616Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T00:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T00:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-15T00:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-13T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-13T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "San Francisco is located on the [San Andreas Fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), an active fault that produces frequent small earthquakes and occasional larger earthquakes. The [Southern California Earthquake Data Center](https://scedc.caltech.edu/about/index.html) tracks [earthquakes occurring in San Francisco](https://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/Maps/San_Francisco.html) over the past seven days, including their magnitudes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Southern California Earthquake Data Center's [San Francisco Special Map page](https://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/Maps/San_Francisco.html) shows an earthquake of at least 3.0 magnitude having occurred at any time between noon Pacific Time on May 7, 2024, and the same time on May 14, 2024.\n\nIf no such earthquake has appeared on the resolution source when it is accessed by Metaculus at approximately noon Pacific Time on May 14, 2024, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* If the webpage is unavailable at the time of resolution Metaculus may use information shown when accessed when the webpage becomes available again in combination with archives or other previously available data to resolve the question. In the event the necessary data is not accessible before May 17, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.\n* If the \"update time\" on the page has not updated to a time on May 14 or later before May 17, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 22787, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715615985.217428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.046 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715615985.217428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.046 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.0312552960605449 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9910060114578825, 11.263569261226412, 4.943494192870327, 2.1502279011183036, 1.2239356982332548, 2.6690324018837885, 1.85670736793684, 0.7254353587651411, 0.9476884887046827, 0.39483614886258234, 0.0948017506434688, 0.0, 0.015456788950302117, 0.06107923042959055, 0.00251255273585492, 0.06916185989150465, 0.01184147377315906, 0.0, 0.007686654308394293, 1.1772779445694922e-06, 0.05493158653692663, 0.005151021666243767, 0.001124454378889767, 0.0003159887883757867, 3.3150779159803795e-06, 0.009338190231942167, 0.0, 1.6103040160457274e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007468947234852837, 0.0, 0.0, 7.780156686488326e-07, 2.237379321509672e-05, 0.0, 0.0008531977800171985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024410732385248994, 0.0027357004129508287, 0.003217533778339939, 0.0, 0.016373877929204087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.6899682149715206e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025247730608121883, 8.19283950056746e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.168377008380162e-05, 0.0013481937662782459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10846946277933382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.845776321520363e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001159350539494368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007762792702739693 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.770336518779445, "coverage": 0.999882072142392, "baseline_score": 79.86257293368817, "spot_peer_score": 31.016280053899294, "peer_archived_score": 21.770336518779445, "baseline_archived_score": 79.86257293368817, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.016280053899294 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715615985.278497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715615985.278497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9958862257780204, 0.00411377422197957 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 723, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "San Francisco is located on the [San Andreas Fault](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault), an active fault that produces frequent small earthquakes and occasional larger earthquakes. The [Southern California Earthquake Data Center](https://scedc.caltech.edu/about/index.html) tracks [earthquakes occurring in San Francisco](https://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/Maps/San_Francisco.html) over the past seven days, including their magnitudes." }, { "id": 22726, "title": "On May 18th, will Kyle, Texas set the world record for largest gathering of individuals with the same first name?", "short_title": "Kyle, Texas, Record Name Gathering in 2024?", "url_title": "Kyle, Texas, Record Name Gathering in 2024?", "slug": "kyle-texas-record-name-gathering-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-25T22:23:04.712380Z", "published_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.997594Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T19:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T19:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 272, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22726, "title": "On May 18th, will Kyle, Texas set the world record for largest gathering of individuals with the same first name?", "created_at": "2024-04-25T22:23:04.712380Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T19:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T19:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-18T19:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-17T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-17T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In March of 2024 the City of Kyle, Texas, [officially announced](https://www.cityofkyle.com/communications/2024-gathering-kyles) its ambition to break the Guinness World Record for the largest gathering of individuals with the same first name through an event named the \"Gathering of the Kyles.\" This announcement follows a previous attempt which saw [1,490](https://www.facebook.com/100068788077296/posts/pfbid02hzzAqM1qw2ePnBgwDYX8zLJfAWtdRu2bphCUf2ZvzSAWjFCEoUwY7pzjtqXYLkaHl/?mibextid=DcJ9fc) Kyles congregating, [falling short](https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/kyle-texas-vies-for-world-record/) of the [current record](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/largest-same-name-gathering-first-name) held since July 2017, when 2,325 Ivans gathered in Bosnia and Herzegovina.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the attempt at the Guiness World Record for largest gathering of individuals with the same first name scheduled for 1 PM on May 18th, 2024, in Kyle, Texas, is reported to have broken the world record. The following resolution sources may be used to resolve this question:\n\n1. Updates to the [Guinness record page](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/largest-same-name-gathering-first-name)\n2. Statements by Guinness World Records\n3. Announcements by city officials of the city of Kyle, Texas\n4. Announcements by event organizers", "fine_print": "* Credible media reports quoting the above sources will also be sufficient. In the event sources conflict or disagree, or Metaculus has reason to doubt the credibility of the initial reporting, it will resolve according to the published information available on May 21, 2024, and using the priority order of the above list of resolution sources (for example, a statement by Guinness World Records will be used if it conflicts with statements made by city officials of Kyle, Texas).\n* If on May 21, 2024, Metaculus is unable to determine a clear **Yes** or **No** resolution to the question from the available information, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 22726, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715982685.67053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 272, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715982685.67053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 272, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03486568506246264 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.986916998894808, 10.996422551414325, 1.9779220309855523, 0.2065368174359772, 1.1454724684179722, 1.6174258689412724, 0.006903785952101294, 0.9733927701720392, 0.32299093966249165, 0.0, 0.015053796950695083, 0.009071692936845592, 0.0, 0.00029580141113433, 0.0, 0.025308151777235444, 0.001117051351074497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04928772657566385, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.810767638269447, 0.00011435258686873982, 0.0, 0.00014808723129541542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5310628945992628e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001695821942987492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.207199751717866e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1635959653414162e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13519382949006264, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8959363751302854e-06, 0.022284922238020893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.544868131692458e-05, 0.0, 6.434931048954301e-07, 5.081838718122148e-07, 0.06374007878610248, 0.0, 0.0, 2.828896512946325e-07, 3.7549991373922383e-06, 0.00015662770728463768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035322025027162494, 0.0, 0.053623938326584304, 6.020823298350564e-06, 0.0, 1.00229714854584e-05, 0.0, 1.3813869842631046e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.723869117962274e-06, 2.9813494938270985e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019351664890243032, 0.0, 6.066810085637193e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06634015803061366 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 44.33569186382451, "coverage": 0.9999393576707539, "baseline_score": 88.86444460648448, "spot_peer_score": 60.96502009844622, "peer_archived_score": 44.33569186382451, "baseline_archived_score": 88.86444460648448, "spot_peer_archived_score": 60.96502009844622 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715982685.728083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 272, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715982685.728083, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 272, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9930588814063153, 0.006941118593684745 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 759, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In March of 2024 the City of Kyle, Texas, [officially announced](https://www.cityofkyle.com/communications/2024-gathering-kyles) its ambition to break the Guinness World Record for the largest gathering of individuals with the same first name through an event named the \"Gathering of the Kyles.\" This announcement follows a previous attempt which saw [1,490](https://www.facebook.com/100068788077296/posts/pfbid02hzzAqM1qw2ePnBgwDYX8zLJfAWtdRu2bphCUf2ZvzSAWjFCEoUwY7pzjtqXYLkaHl/?mibextid=DcJ9fc) Kyles congregating, [falling short](https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/kyle-texas-vies-for-world-record/) of the [current record](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/largest-same-name-gathering-first-name) held since July 2017, when 2,325 Ivans gathered in Bosnia and Herzegovina." }, { "id": 22725, "title": "As of May 21, 2024, will OpenAI report at least 99.9% uptime for ChatGPT for May 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI Uptime in May 2024?", "url_title": "OpenAI Uptime in May 2024?", "slug": "openai-uptime-in-may-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-25T21:35:17.744647Z", "published_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.199672Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 278, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22725, "title": "As of May 21, 2024, will OpenAI report at least 99.9% uptime for ChatGPT for May 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-25T21:35:17.744647Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:01.774000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:01.774000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-21T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Through March of 2024, [ChatGPT's uptime](https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69) has exceeded 99% for every month except the month of launch, with February at 98.28%. Of those 14 months, four had a ChatGPT uptime of 99.9% or higher.\n\nSoftware reliability is often measured in \"[number of 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_availability#%22Nines%22)\"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus on May 21, 2024, at 2 PM ET, [OpenAI's status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69) for ChatGPT reports an uptime of 99.90% or greater for the month of May 2024. It resolves **No** otherwise.\n\nForecasters can find the uptime in grey text to the right of the relevant month.", "fine_print": "* In the event that, on the resolution date, the status page is not accessible or does not show an uptime percentage for the month of May, this question shall be **annulled**.\n* The question will also resolve as **No** if OpenAI discontinues ChatGPT and the status page is not updated to reflect this.", "post_id": 22725, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716239281.873009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 278, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716239281.873009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 278, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.006969811308707675 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.997125434650478, 8.649932931751534, 0.20745649224777996, 0.42130929847579895, 0.26317745901724143, 0.03191897499626753, 0.014070732409184784, 0.0, 0.0007177775409451612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.9449173865051395e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 2.091527000903249e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09162080715085567, 0.0, 0.10532690947802194, 0.0, 5.370019973238079e-07, 0.0, 4.2537635723676295e-06, 4.240849701338321e-07, 0.0031365873983163865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005485782587761047, 2.315425482616846e-05, 0.0, 0.020957708877839536, 0.0, 2.9582310245231102e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 8.089079656447843e-07, 0.0, 2.112199523836165e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.517974326192025e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.133587635032215e-06, 5.3499913782669216e-06, 9.404591909642687e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.515209234530066e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.250080334930849e-06, 0.017183394670600437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.024442549813141e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2844602682933696e-05, 1.1527824680373926e-06, 0.0, 5.611141935508958e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 3.2031951139550664e-05, 1.0363924523802025e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5821795330802679e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024464803098037332 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 31.328276377036012, "coverage": 0.9999395467999681, "baseline_score": 89.8356939592526, "spot_peer_score": 65.63997320893557, "peer_archived_score": 31.328276377036012, "baseline_archived_score": 89.8356939592526, "spot_peer_archived_score": 65.63997320893557 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716239281.952571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 278, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716239281.952571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 278, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 716, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Through March of 2024, [ChatGPT's uptime](https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69) has exceeded 99% for every month except the month of launch, with February at 98.28%. Of those 14 months, four had a ChatGPT uptime of 99.9% or higher.\n\nSoftware reliability is often measured in \"[number of 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_availability#%22Nines%22)\"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc." }, { "id": 22719, "title": "Will the First Minister of Scotland, Humza Yousaf MSP avoid or survive the no confidence motion tabled by the Scottish Conservatives?", "short_title": "Survival of the Scottish First Minister?", "url_title": "Survival of the Scottish First Minister?", "slug": "survival-of-the-scottish-first-minister", "author_id": 167289, "author_username": "HarryHayfield", "coauthors": [ { "id": 123015, "username": "IY" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-25T17:00:32.016962Z", "published_at": "2024-04-27T10:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.278392Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-27T10:25:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T20:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T20:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-27T10:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22719, "title": "Will the First Minister of Scotland, Humza Yousaf MSP avoid or survive the no confidence motion tabled by the Scottish Conservatives?", "created_at": "2024-04-25T17:00:32.016962Z", "open_time": "2024-04-27T10:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-27T21:16:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-27T21:16:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T20:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-30T20:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T20:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 25th 2024, the Scottish National Party (SNP) [cancelled](https://news.stv.tv/politics/snp-set-to-break-off-power-sharing-bute-house-agreement-with-scottish-greens) the Bute House Agreement (the formal coalition deal between the SNP and the Scottish Greens) following the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections. This led to the moving of a no confidence motion by the Scottish Conservatives.\n\nScotland's First Minister, Humza Yousaf, faces opposition from both his left and right. The Scottish Greens [have also announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-68901088) that they will vote to oust Yousaf. If every opposition Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) votes against Yousaf and every SNP MSP votes for, it will be 64-63 to oust, with a final deciding vote coming down to Yousaf's political rival Ash Regan, who is now no longer a member of the SNP.\n\nIn the event of a tied vote, the Presiding Officer (who cannot vote except to break ties) [typically votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presiding_Officer_of_the_Scottish_Parliament) to retain the status quo (meaning that they would vote to keep the First Minister in post).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Humza Yousaf wins the next no-confidence vote scheduled to take place in the Scottish Parliament as early as Wednesday May 1, 2024. This will also resolve as **Yes** if for any reason the vote does not take place before Saturday May 11, 2024. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the no-confidence vote takes place and Humza Yousaf does not win. \n\nResolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22719, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714505906.833933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.975 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714505906.833933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.975 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9320803739182302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 4.8569710835514694 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714505906.870049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714505906.870049, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.26299164822408383, 0.7370083517759162 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 25th 2024, the Scottish National Party (SNP) [cancelled](https://news.stv.tv/politics/snp-set-to-break-off-power-sharing-bute-house-agreement-with-scottish-greens) the Bute House Agreement (the formal coalition deal between the SNP and the Scottish Greens) following the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections. This led to the moving of a no confidence motion by the Scottish Conservatives.\n\nScotland's First Minister, Humza Yousaf, faces opposition from both his left and right. The Scottish Greens [have also announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-68901088) that they will vote to oust Yousaf. If every opposition Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) votes against Yousaf and every SNP MSP votes for, it will be 64-63 to oust, with a final deciding vote coming down to Yousaf's political rival Ash Regan, who is now no longer a member of the SNP.\n\nIn the event of a tied vote, the Presiding Officer (who cannot vote except to break ties) [typically votes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presiding_Officer_of_the_Scottish_Parliament) to retain the status quo (meaning that they would vote to keep the First Minister in post)." }, { "id": 22634, "title": "If Nicolás Maduro loses the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, will he abdicate the presidency?", "short_title": "Maduro's Party Recognizes Results?", "url_title": "Maduro's Party Recognizes Results?", "slug": "maduros-party-recognizes-results", "author_id": 125391, "author_username": "diego.lombardi.boscan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-25T11:35:12.634477Z", "published_at": "2024-05-02T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.720765Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-02T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-29T06:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-07T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T06:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-02T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22634, "title": "If Nicolás Maduro loses the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, will he abdicate the presidency?", "created_at": "2024-04-25T11:35:12.634477Z", "open_time": "2024-05-02T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-05T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-05T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T06:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-29T06:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-07T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-29T06:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 28, 2024, presidential elections will be held in Venezuela. According to the most [recent poll](https://www.vozdeamerica.com/amp/edmundo-gonzalez-candidato-presidencial-poco-conocido-venezuela-que-sin-hablar-toma-impulso-en-encuestas/7579140.html), the opposition candidate would easily win the election if it is free and fair. However, the current government has been putting up some obstacles, which raises doubts about the possibility of having competitive elections and in this context, whether the government will respect the electoral results. \n\nThe Venezuelan Constitution [establishes](https://www.csis.org/analysis/venezuelas-presidential-crisis-and-transition-democracy) that the new presidential term will begin on January 10, 2025.\n\nRelated question: [Who will be elected President of Venezuela in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22727/venezuela-election-winner-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro does not win the 2024 presidential election and is not president on January 10, 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if Maduro does not win the 2024 presidential election and is still president on January 10, 2025.\n\nResolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nIf Maduro wins the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, this question will be **Annulled**.", "fine_print": "If the election is canceled or postponed beyond January 9, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 22634, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722228390.288252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722228390.288252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.19787416549619938 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1866817496780098, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.625123946004474, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5008196833931818, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7963739058787758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722228390.320578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722228390.320578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9790176005574907, 0.020982399442509393 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 28, 2024, presidential elections will be held in Venezuela. According to the most [recent poll](https://www.vozdeamerica.com/amp/edmundo-gonzalez-candidato-presidencial-poco-conocido-venezuela-que-sin-hablar-toma-impulso-en-encuestas/7579140.html), the opposition candidate would easily win the election if it is free and fair. However, the current government has been putting up some obstacles, which raises doubts about the possibility of having competitive elections and in this context, whether the government will respect the electoral results. \n\nThe Venezuelan Constitution [establishes](https://www.csis.org/analysis/venezuelas-presidential-crisis-and-transition-democracy) that the new presidential term will begin on January 10, 2025.\n\nRelated question: [Who will be elected President of Venezuela in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22727/venezuela-election-winner-2024/)" }, { "id": 22633, "title": "Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?", "short_title": "Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation?", "url_title": "Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation?", "slug": "will-pedro-sanchez-announce-his-resignation", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-25T09:23:28.435961Z", "published_at": "2024-04-25T16:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.611024Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-25T16:30:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 133, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22633, "title": "Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-25T09:23:28.435961Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-26T01:00:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-26T01:00:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-30T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-28T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-28T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 24, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez [announced contemplating resignation](https://english.elpais.com/spain/2024-04-24/spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-considers-resigning-due-to-the-unprecedented-attacks-against-his-wife-by-the-right-and-the-far-right.html) following an investigation targeting his wife, Begoña Gómez, prompted by a complaint from the \"far-right\" group Manos Limpias. Distressed, he penned a letter considering resignation due to these \"unprecedented attacks.\" He kept this decision private, without hosting any crisis meetings.\n\nSánchez has withdrawn from public engagements until the upcoming Monday, when he plans to address the media and discuss his political future.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 30, 2024, credible sources report that the Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, has announced his resignation. Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Sánchez need not actually vacate his office. Only an announcement that he will resign is required.\n\nAn announcement that he will not seek reelection does not count.\n\nThe announcement must be unequivocal and not an announcement that he is considering resignation or similar.", "post_id": 22633, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714341340.913999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714341340.913999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.2880328525299093 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9409170059174523, 0.11637443465681149, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1804073497217478, 0.0, 1.7941404181394651, 0.35332570888205544, 0.7379977876713621, 4.109177762922711, 0.058454617274962296, 1.1455226735586064, 0.9731507596665807, 1.2390005898881435, 0.10971520404186627, 0.018316121412799306, 0.7549053771894576, 0.00031326503155383454, 0.0, 0.5955144568600583, 0.0, 0.1511315821496751, 0.015236013164587956, 0.009363172280209482, 0.23168684939224465, 0.013280479299666087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7816010053086422, 0.008104156970479877, 0.0, 0.025810062942312167, 0.0, 0.1823900194333291, 0.0, 0.00019694962065035435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17987743706795636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2054221346617558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4070435277239889, 0.3690183741200392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45816725708253253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10446072670974002, 0.11023029160557597, 0.0241779814177198, 0.0, 0.0, 2.665423269405913e-05, 0.3429018419028987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.516634715144433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8771684931589312, 0.0, 0.0008584117833175608, 0.0, 0.76863818174151, 0.021249607660824277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018634731409174585, 0.6182060909153873 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.001223362112757, "coverage": 0.9998176733849341, "baseline_score": 66.70090670775514, "spot_peer_score": 9.916178815362567, "peer_archived_score": 22.001223362112757, "baseline_archived_score": 66.70090670775514, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.916178815362567 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714341340.956967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714341340.956967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9204796755262094, 0.07952032447379068 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 240, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 24, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez [announced contemplating resignation](https://english.elpais.com/spain/2024-04-24/spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-considers-resigning-due-to-the-unprecedented-attacks-against-his-wife-by-the-right-and-the-far-right.html) following an investigation targeting his wife, Begoña Gómez, prompted by a complaint from the \"far-right\" group Manos Limpias. Distressed, he penned a letter considering resignation due to these \"unprecedented attacks.\" He kept this decision private, without hosting any crisis meetings.\n\nSánchez has withdrawn from public engagements until the upcoming Monday, when he plans to address the media and discuss his political future." }, { "id": 22628, "title": "Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?", "short_title": "Columbia President Censured in April 2024?", "url_title": "Columbia President Censured in April 2024?", "slug": "columbia-president-censured-in-april-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-24T21:39:14.782921Z", "published_at": "2024-04-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.871379Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-26T17:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-26T17:05:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-27T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-27T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22628, "title": "Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-24T21:39:14.782921Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-25T04:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-25T04:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-27T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-27T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-27T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-26T17:05:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-26T17:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Large protests [have occurred at a number of US universities](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/columbia-protests-live-update-encampment-continue-college-negotiates-p-rcna149111), with participants demonstrating against Israel's invasion of Gaza. Protests at Columbia University have been especially prominent, as protesters set up a large encampment resulting in a police response and [100 arrests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893185) made on April 18, 2024. In a [speech at the campus on April 24, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-speaker-mike-johnson-columbia-university-visit/), US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson called for university president Nemat Shafik to resign due to continued protests and encampments on campus.\n\nThe university has been negotiating with student protesters, [saying on April 24](https://communications.news.columbia.edu/news/campus-updates) that progress had been made and that students had committed to removing a \"significant number of tents\". Shafik has also faces a [potential censure](https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/columbia-yale-student-protests-4-23-24/h_5ad891938bdb320617ece840a6000bf8) by the University Senate. While a censure would be primarily symbolic, such a censure would be noteworthy as the senate's [111 member body includes](https://senate.columbia.edu/content/111-university-senators-20-schools) 76 members of the faculty and administration compared to only 25 current students. The senate's monthly meeting is [scheduled for April 26](https://events.columbia.edu/cal/event/eventView.do?b=de&calPath=%2Fpublic%2Fcals%2FMainCal&guid=CAL-00bbdb7c-888a9fcc-0188-8cd481cd-00004a39events%40columbia.edu&recurrenceId=).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on or before April 26, 2024, credible sources report that the Columbia University Senate has voted to censure university president Nemat Shafik.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22628, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714151076.794349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714151076.794349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.18118584249789668 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.6814880507369345, 0.0, 0.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20561265148349345, 0.0, 1.304453145791202, 0.5685529016609817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9253192545386865, 0.0, 1.1938327340865411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8397125027217119, 0.3343470039728833, 0.0, 0.2274691399399458, 0.0, 0.4925449486176343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4283217889117321, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3665885696709727, 0.28723502953736213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02593106589452041, 0.0, 0.0216015677189824, 0.09464378440008571, 0.0, 0.14444552114137227, 0.0, 0.08368122008485587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036208439996911576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10666096661288105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030784600481361255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11981076312780951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1341757537316506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.289342563263141, "coverage": 0.9938893504864948, "baseline_score": 9.151913016100494, "spot_peer_score": 10.229053932381388, "peer_archived_score": 5.289342563263141, "baseline_archived_score": 9.151913016100494, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.229053932381388 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714151076.834195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714151076.834195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9587597607075616, 0.041240239292438356 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Large protests [have occurred at a number of US universities](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/columbia-protests-live-update-encampment-continue-college-negotiates-p-rcna149111), with participants demonstrating against Israel's invasion of Gaza. Protests at Columbia University have been especially prominent, as protesters set up a large encampment resulting in a police response and [100 arrests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893185) made on April 18, 2024. In a [speech at the campus on April 24, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-speaker-mike-johnson-columbia-university-visit/), US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson called for university president Nemat Shafik to resign due to continued protests and encampments on campus.\n\nThe university has been negotiating with student protesters, [saying on April 24](https://communications.news.columbia.edu/news/campus-updates) that progress had been made and that students had committed to removing a \"significant number of tents\". Shafik has also faces a [potential censure](https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/columbia-yale-student-protests-4-23-24/h_5ad891938bdb320617ece840a6000bf8) by the University Senate. While a censure would be primarily symbolic, such a censure would be noteworthy as the senate's [111 member body includes](https://senate.columbia.edu/content/111-university-senators-20-schools) 76 members of the faculty and administration compared to only 25 current students. The senate's monthly meeting is [scheduled for April 26](https://events.columbia.edu/cal/event/eventView.do?b=de&calPath=%2Fpublic%2Fcals%2FMainCal&guid=CAL-00bbdb7c-888a9fcc-0188-8cd481cd-00004a39events%40columbia.edu&recurrenceId=)." }, { "id": 22576, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Russia Controls Chasiv Yar On June 2024?", "url_title": "Russia Controls Chasiv Yar On June 2024?", "slug": "russia-controls-chasiv-yar-on-june-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-24T17:17:59.769170Z", "published_at": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.595168Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 174, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22576, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-24T17:17:59.769170Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-28T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-28T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). Ukraine has [reportedly said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aims to capture the city by May 9.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus on June 1, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the coordinates 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E as under any of the following categories:\n\n\n\n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine\n\n- Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours\n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n\n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the location\n\n\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the location is not assessed to be in any of the categories indicating Russian control, which includes but is not limited to:\n\n\n\n- Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours\n\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n\n- Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\n\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location or a lack of Russian control of the location", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".", "post_id": 22576, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717183165.904426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717183165.904426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0494511892535625 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.129842971948163, 10.305795737419329, 0.6263683415425672, 0.030369685047608248, 0.07516982544664925, 0.5452575416257975, 0.007142710226349658, 0.06388955117467894, 0.0027205842468713518, 0.0377128179020582, 0.41158518761830776, 0.0003709648157365384, 0.0008184130252278558, 0.0, 0.00016348815720074343, 0.051923940209118884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5224429083822705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010196244912731765, 0.0019137687189129844, 0.015153217048975315, 0.0, 5.1481853690146295e-05, 0.0, 0.0823933359887159, 0.0, 0.005228389281653636, 0.011411792011796784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012996241416064855, 0.0033206617795591845, 0.0, 0.05899588033860485, 0.0, 0.0, 5.966265109529925e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002901763190782373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006927605292204378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5429400341282805e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004604798889805693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037201320476189986, 0.028803591427246904, 0.0488962687092053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004047077714008696, 0.0, 2.632070549860035e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047239404264455206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012789316667053264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7074000907982695 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.839285235199554, "coverage": 0.9999895052485961, "baseline_score": 80.62493494610219, "spot_peer_score": 20.983586805520144, "peer_archived_score": 20.839285235199554, "baseline_archived_score": 80.62493494610219, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.983586805520144 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717183165.960972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717183165.960972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9981216606425867, 0.0018783393574132786 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 640, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). Ukraine has [reportedly said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aims to capture the city by May 9." }, { "id": 22560, "title": "Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026?", "short_title": "Ukraine Revokes Passports by 2026", "url_title": "Ukraine Revokes Passports by 2026", "slug": "ukraine-revokes-passports-by-2026", "author_id": 122079, "author_username": "wd28", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-24T10:22:26.544667Z", "published_at": "2024-04-30T12:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T22:29:42.637150Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-30T12:30:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-29T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-30T12:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22560, "title": "Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-04-24T10:22:26.544667Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T12:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-03T12:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-03T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-29T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-29T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Shortly after new Ukrainian mobilization law [was signed](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/16/europe/zelensky-signs-mobilization-law-intl-latam/index.html), all [consular services for men age 18-60 was suspended](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/europe/ukraine-consulates-mobilization-intl-latam/index.html), including issuing and renewing passports.\n\nIn light of these developments, there have been concerns, reportedly amplified by [Russian propaganda](https://disinfo.detector.media/en/post/the-ukrainian-government-allegedly-wants-to-cancel-the-international-passports-of-citizens-abroad), that this will be supplemented by revoking already-issued passports, thus forcing Ukrainian men to return home.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Ukraine government has initiated a policy of revoking previously valid passports of Ukrainian men, deemed to be of draft age, who reside outside the country.\n\nIf no credible sources report such revocation before January 1, 2026, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "This passport revocation announcement must describe the revocation as either nationwide or affecting at least 1,000 draft-eligible Ukrainian men abroad without proper military service documents.", "post_id": 22560, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762983398.470538, "end_time": 1764552158.525, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762983398.470538, "end_time": 1764552158.525, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.10896119200347316 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.019814602805578, 2.506739612262831, 0.756513077776665, 0.3972620519968185, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289628.823825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289628.823825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9836982012600963, 0.016301798739903648 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Shortly after new Ukrainian mobilization law [was signed](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/16/europe/zelensky-signs-mobilization-law-intl-latam/index.html), all [consular services for men age 18-60 was suspended](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/europe/ukraine-consulates-mobilization-intl-latam/index.html), including issuing and renewing passports.\n\nIn light of these developments, there have been concerns, reportedly amplified by [Russian propaganda](https://disinfo.detector.media/en/post/the-ukrainian-government-allegedly-wants-to-cancel-the-international-passports-of-citizens-abroad), that this will be supplemented by revoking already-issued passports, thus forcing Ukrainian men to return home." }, { "id": 22554, "title": "Will the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD) reach parity before 2030?", "short_title": "1 GBP be equal to 1 USD before 2030?", "url_title": "1 GBP be equal to 1 USD before 2030?", "slug": "1-gbp-be-equal-to-1-usd-before-2030", "author_id": 121996, "author_username": "Bervie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-23T17:12:53.810185Z", "published_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.559377Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22554, "title": "Will the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD) reach parity before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-04-23T17:12:53.810185Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-28T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The exchange rate between two currencies is influenced by numerous factors including inflation rates, interest rates, public debt, political stability and economic performance among others.\n\nThe relative strength of a nation's fiat currency compared to historic levels is often seen as a measure of the success of the country as a whole, even though countries in the past have seen it as advantageous to devalue their currency. The relative strength of a nation's currency compared to peers often provides a talking point if nothing else, and can have a big psychological impact, affecting consumer and business confidence. in practical terms, it can affect individuals and governments alike by affecting their relative purchasing power.\n\nThe US dollar and British pound have never achieved parity. In September 2022, it came close, with the pound [bottoming](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/business/dealbook/british-pound-parity-markets-dollar.html) at $1.08. The international investment bank Citi [reported](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-could-plunge-parity-with-dollar-citi-2022-09-23/) that the UK risked a confidence crisis in its currency and would find it difficult to finance economic pledges such as tax cuts.\n\nA significant cause of the decline [was seen]((https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/business/dealbook/british-pound-parity-markets-dollar.html)) as reckless British government policy. This was seen as affecting investor perception of the UK's fiscal competence.\n\nSee Also: \n\n[Macrotrends historical chart GBP USD](https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart)\n\nInvestopedia: [Why the British Pound Is Stronger Than the U.S. Dollar](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070516/why-british-pound-stronger-us-dollar.asp)\n\nCME Group: [Seven Factors that Drive the U.S. Dollar-British Pound Rate](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/seven-factors-that-drive-the-us-dollar-british-pound-rate.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the daily close price for the official exchange rate between the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD) reaches 1:1 before 2030, according to data from the [International Monetary Fund](https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/rms_rep.aspx). To be resolved, the daily close exchange rate must be reported as being one Pound Sterling for one US Dollar or less.\n\nIf the IMF stops reporting, then Metaculus Admins can choose an alternative source such as a reliable financial news source or global financial institution.\n\nIf this event does not happen before January 1, 2030, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the Pound Sterling or the US Dollar cease to exist as currencies, then the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 22554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761485450.575434, "end_time": 1768083516.46842, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761485450.575434, "end_time": 1768083516.46842, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14650366946453378 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 1.2690464055783675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701074784304893, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289416.49588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289416.49588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9468615193748595, 0.053138480625140525 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The exchange rate between two currencies is influenced by numerous factors including inflation rates, interest rates, public debt, political stability and economic performance among others.\n\nThe relative strength of a nation's fiat currency compared to historic levels is often seen as a measure of the success of the country as a whole, even though countries in the past have seen it as advantageous to devalue their currency. The relative strength of a nation's currency compared to peers often provides a talking point if nothing else, and can have a big psychological impact, affecting consumer and business confidence. in practical terms, it can affect individuals and governments alike by affecting their relative purchasing power.\n\nThe US dollar and British pound have never achieved parity. In September 2022, it came close, with the pound [bottoming](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/business/dealbook/british-pound-parity-markets-dollar.html) at $1.08. The international investment bank Citi [reported](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-could-plunge-parity-with-dollar-citi-2022-09-23/) that the UK risked a confidence crisis in its currency and would find it difficult to finance economic pledges such as tax cuts.\n\nA significant cause of the decline [was seen]((https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/business/dealbook/british-pound-parity-markets-dollar.html)) as reckless British government policy. This was seen as affecting investor perception of the UK's fiscal competence.\n\nSee Also: \n\n[Macrotrends historical chart GBP USD](https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart)\n\nInvestopedia: [Why the British Pound Is Stronger Than the U.S. Dollar](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070516/why-british-pound-stronger-us-dollar.asp)\n\nCME Group: [Seven Factors that Drive the U.S. Dollar-British Pound Rate](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/seven-factors-that-drive-the-us-dollar-british-pound-rate.html)" }, { "id": 22547, "title": "Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Gagauzia Governor Russia Visit by June 1?", "url_title": "Gagauzia Governor Russia Visit by June 1?", "slug": "gagauzia-governor-russia-visit-by-june-1", "author_id": 144022, "author_username": "Langley", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-23T12:12:26.159782Z", "published_at": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.963257Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22547, "title": "Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-23T12:12:26.159782Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-28T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-28T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "When it comes to separatism and Moldova, most will likely recall Transnistria, which is controlled by separatists and elements of the Russian Federation armed forces since the 1990s.\n\nHowever, another autonomous region of Moldova, [Gagauzia](https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2022/walking-the-tightrope-towards-the-eu/4-gagauzia-the-restless-region-in-the-south/), is currently undergoing major \"temptation\" from Russia. The region, inhabited by over 120,000 Gagauzes, who are an Orthodox, mostly Russian speaking Moldovan minority, is newly connected to the Mir banking system, Russian [propaganda](https://dfrlab.org/2024/03/19/kremlin-media-blitz-gagauzia/) is widely spreading (most TV channels are Russian), and control of the [Chisinau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi%C8%99in%C4%83u) government is openly challenged.\n\nThe most important figure in this new development is Evghenia Guțul, a young pro-Russian politician, who was [elected](https://www.rferl.org/a/gutul-gagauzia-moldova-leader-shor-party/32412419.html) a governor of the region in the last year's elections, which brought a lot of controversy due to allegations of corruption and the fact that Guțul ran on a ticket of a banned Pro-Russian party (connected to the Russian oligarch Ilan Shor).\n\nGuțul visited Russia twice in the last several weeks. The most recent [visit](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/04/10/moldovas-restive-gagauzia-region-mulls-using-russian-payment-cards/) occurred on the 8th of April, and before that on the 6th of March, during which she [met](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/03/07/pro-moscow-governor-of-moldovas-gagauzia-seeks-putins-help/) with Russian President Vladimir Putin (edit May 6, 2024: Guțul also appears to have been in Moscow when this question was launched, with a [meeting in Moscow on April 22](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-brings-criminal-case-against-pro-russian-gagauzia-leader-court-2024-04-24/) and on [April 24](https://twitter.com/EvgheniaGutul/status/1783236723297685785)).\n\nIn the aftermath of both visits Russia promised to \"protect\" Gagauzia and also to distribute monthly [payments](https://cepa.org/article/the-kremlin-decides-to-buy-a-population/) to Gagauzian civil servants and senior citizens (together accounting for approximately 25,000 people).\n\nMore Guțul visits in Russia might signal rapid development in this region, which could mean further deterioration of the relationship between Gagauzia and Moldovan government.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 24, 2024, and before June 1, 2024, credible sources report that Evghenia Guțul has traveled to Russian territory within that period.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of the question, Crimea and the Russia-controlled parts of Ukraine are considered to be Russian Federation territory.", "post_id": 22547, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715274721.048933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715274721.048933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6950675244423947 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.029133191509986833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15724883273568244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6983056029809626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007406772822704901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11748690146061783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.189341530780365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4080235318474639, 0.0, 0.49690095490140007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018701514513498173, 0.0, 0.20728428597607368, 0.0, 0.5576688763820327, 1.1748677442684337, 0.061881780206469506, 0.29365530089148495, 0.025290490754560285, 0.0, 0.7066667457540853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22141789721597055, 0.0, 0.003256133383704309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5164960024539398, 0.39795331004878454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005849328395348274, 0.013393291873889481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0567063198522528, 0.03806556990920311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07660192757428971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0862062439156513, 0.9320576437636137, 0.0, 0.0, 1.004474424132665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.2873354858588657 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.904994854457772, "coverage": 0.37579239409113663, "baseline_score": 12.290769330883144, "spot_peer_score": 6.30691693551318, "peer_archived_score": 3.904994854457772, "baseline_archived_score": 12.290769330883144, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.30691693551318 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715184401.021788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715184401.021788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.665364253775057, 0.33463574622494296 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 184, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "When it comes to separatism and Moldova, most will likely recall Transnistria, which is controlled by separatists and elements of the Russian Federation armed forces since the 1990s.\n\nHowever, another autonomous region of Moldova, [Gagauzia](https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2022/walking-the-tightrope-towards-the-eu/4-gagauzia-the-restless-region-in-the-south/), is currently undergoing major \"temptation\" from Russia. The region, inhabited by over 120,000 Gagauzes, who are an Orthodox, mostly Russian speaking Moldovan minority, is newly connected to the Mir banking system, Russian [propaganda](https://dfrlab.org/2024/03/19/kremlin-media-blitz-gagauzia/) is widely spreading (most TV channels are Russian), and control of the [Chisinau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi%C8%99in%C4%83u) government is openly challenged.\n\nThe most important figure in this new development is Evghenia Guțul, a young pro-Russian politician, who was [elected](https://www.rferl.org/a/gutul-gagauzia-moldova-leader-shor-party/32412419.html) a governor of the region in the last year's elections, which brought a lot of controversy due to allegations of corruption and the fact that Guțul ran on a ticket of a banned Pro-Russian party (connected to the Russian oligarch Ilan Shor).\n\nGuțul visited Russia twice in the last several weeks. The most recent [visit](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/04/10/moldovas-restive-gagauzia-region-mulls-using-russian-payment-cards/) occurred on the 8th of April, and before that on the 6th of March, during which she [met](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/03/07/pro-moscow-governor-of-moldovas-gagauzia-seeks-putins-help/) with Russian President Vladimir Putin (edit May 6, 2024: Guțul also appears to have been in Moscow when this question was launched, with a [meeting in Moscow on April 22](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-brings-criminal-case-against-pro-russian-gagauzia-leader-court-2024-04-24/) and on [April 24](https://twitter.com/EvgheniaGutul/status/1783236723297685785)).\n\nIn the aftermath of both visits Russia promised to \"protect\" Gagauzia and also to distribute monthly [payments](https://cepa.org/article/the-kremlin-decides-to-buy-a-population/) to Gagauzian civil servants and senior citizens (together accounting for approximately 25,000 people).\n\nMore Guțul visits in Russia might signal rapid development in this region, which could mean further deterioration of the relationship between Gagauzia and Moldovan government." }, { "id": 22541, "title": "Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?", "short_title": "Best LLM Open Source in 2024?", "url_title": "Best LLM Open Source in 2024?", "slug": "best-llm-open-source-in-2024", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-23T07:32:06.073082Z", "published_at": "2024-04-27T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.875896Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-27T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T00:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-27T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22541, "title": "Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-23T07:32:06.073082Z", "open_time": "2024-04-27T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T00:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T00:32:18.072751Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) is a platform for benchmarking large language models (LLMs) through anonymous, randomized conversations with human raters. The models are then ranked on a public leaderboard based on their \"Arena Elo\" scores.\n\nAs large language models gain more impressive capabilities, it is an open question whether proprietary or non-proprietary models will ultimately succeed. \n\nWhile companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have kept their models proprietary, Meta has made its models non-proprietary.\n\nRecently, the non-proprietary LLaMA 3 model has been [released](https://ai.meta.com/blog/meta-llama-3/), with its 70B version achieving a ranking above all models of a comparable size as of April 24th.\n\nThe 400B+ version of LLaMA 3 is still in training, and according to Meta has benchmarks that rival the top models currently released.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, at any point during 2024, an LLM that is listed as having any non-proprietary license is listed as the highest Arena Elo model on the [chat.lmsys.org](https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard) leaderboard.\n\nIf no non-proprietary model has reached the top rank by 2025, this question will resolve **No.**", "fine_print": "If Chatbot Arena shuts down or is unavailable for a consecutive >1 month period a clear successor may be used, if this is required but there is no clear successor then this question will be **annulled.**\n\nIf Chatbot Arena changes its name or URL that will not affect the resolution.\n\nThe models should be sorted by \"Arena Elo\" in the \"Overall\" category. If these names are changed the analogous categories should be used, if there are no analogous categories this question will be **annulled.**\n\nTo be clear, any license that is non-proprietary will be sufficient to resolve this. As of April 24, 2024, Chatbot Arena clearly lists licenses as either proprietary or not. if available, this will be used to determine whether a model is proprietary if there is reasonable dispute.", "post_id": 22541, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735312763.06531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.008 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735312763.06531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.010050742580520683 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.313023312099144, 1.5856345636565115, 0.0, 0.2930888698849635, 0.1698461853777333, 0.4543131370604877, 0.0, 0.03282480256284937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022471481657050284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.027344313508279407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06198292201444626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.52979891086424, "peer_score": 6.514696912544134, "coverage": 0.9994232930453132, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994232930453132, "spot_peer_score": 5.440575331935369, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 91.52979891086424, "peer_archived_score": 6.514696912544134, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.440575331935369, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287886.357891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287886.357891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) is a platform for benchmarking large language models (LLMs) through anonymous, randomized conversations with human raters. The models are then ranked on a public leaderboard based on their \"Arena Elo\" scores.\n\nAs large language models gain more impressive capabilities, it is an open question whether proprietary or non-proprietary models will ultimately succeed. \n\nWhile companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have kept their models proprietary, Meta has made its models non-proprietary.\n\nRecently, the non-proprietary LLaMA 3 model has been [released](https://ai.meta.com/blog/meta-llama-3/), with its 70B version achieving a ranking above all models of a comparable size as of April 24th.\n\nThe 400B+ version of LLaMA 3 is still in training, and according to Meta has benchmarks that rival the top models currently released." }, { "id": 22534, "title": "Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Senate Passes TikTok Ban Before May 1, 2024?", "url_title": "Senate Passes TikTok Ban Before May 1, 2024?", "slug": "senate-passes-tiktok-ban-before-may-1-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-22T20:56:24.510882Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.905510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-24T01:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-24T01:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 143, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22534, "title": "Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-22T20:56:24.510882Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-24T01:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-24T01:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-24T01:43:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has been a [lengthy debate](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/09/what-happened-to-the-tiktok-ban-00120434) around TikTok and the potential security risk from the app due to its ownership by ByteDance, a company [incorporated in the Cayman Islands and based in China](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-owns-stakes-bytedance-weibo-domestic-entities-records-show-2021-08-17/), and [close connections between Chinese businesses and the Chinese government](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/tech/tiktok-bytedance-china-ownership-intl-hnk/index.html).\n\nThe US House of Representatives [first passed a bill](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-house-vote-china-national-security-8fa7258fae1a4902d344c9d978d58a37) that would have the effect of banning TikTok if it was not divested from its Chinese parent company on March 13, 2024. However, this bill faced scrutiny in the Senate, where it was [sent to committee](https://apnews.com/article/senate-tiktok-ban-lobbying-congress-china-a340cf30b05343816380793af1c5d186). More recently, the House incorporated another TikTok ban into ([HR 8308](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8038/text)) a bill which includes funds for Israel and Ukraine and sanctions against Russia and Iran. This bill, which passed on April 20th, incorporates revised text to [improve its prospects in the Senate and in the courts](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/20/tiktok-bill-passed-explainer-00153472).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 1, 2024, credible sources report that the US Senate has passed a bill that would have the effect of prohibiting TikTok from being distributed within the United States under its current operating and ownership structure.", "fine_print": "* \"Current operating and ownership structure\" means the structure in place as of April 22, 2024.\n* There is no requirement on when the prohibition becomes effective, so long as the Senate passes a bill that would satisfy these criteria on some future date.\n* A bill that includes exemptions to the prohibition of TikTok if certain criteria are met would still resolve the question as **Yes**, so long as the prohibition would apply under TikTok's current operating and ownership structure.\n* Potential legal challenges are immaterial, only the passage of such a bill is required for this question to resolve as **Yes**.\n* If it is unclear from media reporting whether these criteria have been met Metaculus may assess the text of the bill itself and make a determination from the text of the bill. If, in the judgment of Metaculus, it is unclear from the text of the bill whether these criteria have been met the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 22534, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713930403.895216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713930403.895216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9648982226538043 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0059390538704059016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002062514325037591, 1.3738524686593568e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025057835047830775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040181571499506144, 0.0, 0.000495709636511211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2860171453113798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01524703166576841, 0.004846927288182437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006031360346703764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001864122413154778, 0.0, 0.18548230135288377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.467992956359265e-05, 0.0, 0.00044807912297860667, 0.0, 6.708700406036308e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008235752535017807, 0.0, 0.21931118612032297, 0.6694736627197684, 0.00018236138406304314, 0.004219275769030093, 0.00014084327281215552, 0.01705343592848357, 0.007291082670116927, 0.012949130888982072, 0.0012390126954986837, 0.0031853078882124754, 0.0953894937424731, 0.17098938941075964, 0.008086719180545264, 0.016382075660533055, 0.006717353588099061, 1.2498025321923603, 4.7074980302278084e-05, 1.666033965788145, 0.4438420133761478, 18.577834614104525 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.468145666805457, "coverage": 0.06110075656989265, "baseline_score": 5.682738596672976, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 1.468145666805457, "baseline_archived_score": 5.682738596672976, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713922956.873886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713922956.873886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07554542976338485, 0.9244545702366151 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 231, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has been a [lengthy debate](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/09/what-happened-to-the-tiktok-ban-00120434) around TikTok and the potential security risk from the app due to its ownership by ByteDance, a company [incorporated in the Cayman Islands and based in China](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-owns-stakes-bytedance-weibo-domestic-entities-records-show-2021-08-17/), and [close connections between Chinese businesses and the Chinese government](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/tech/tiktok-bytedance-china-ownership-intl-hnk/index.html).\n\nThe US House of Representatives [first passed a bill](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-house-vote-china-national-security-8fa7258fae1a4902d344c9d978d58a37) that would have the effect of banning TikTok if it was not divested from its Chinese parent company on March 13, 2024. However, this bill faced scrutiny in the Senate, where it was [sent to committee](https://apnews.com/article/senate-tiktok-ban-lobbying-congress-china-a340cf30b05343816380793af1c5d186). More recently, the House incorporated another TikTok ban into ([HR 8308](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8038/text)) a bill which includes funds for Israel and Ukraine and sanctions against Russia and Iran. This bill, which passed on April 20th, incorporates revised text to [improve its prospects in the Senate and in the courts](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/20/tiktok-bill-passed-explainer-00153472)." }, { "id": 22532, "title": "Will a limited access channel to the Port of Baltimore be opened at the site of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse before May 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Channel at Port of Baltimore Before May 2024?", "url_title": "Channel at Port of Baltimore Before May 2024?", "slug": "channel-at-port-of-baltimore-before-may-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-22T18:51:04.720514Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.852683Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-25T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 171, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22532, "title": "Will a limited access channel to the Port of Baltimore be opened at the site of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse before May 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-22T18:51:04.720514Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-25T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-25T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Francis Scott Key Bridge, a major bridge over the Patapsco River, which flows into the Chesapeake Bay, [collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_collapse) on March 26, 2024. The collapse resulted in the [closure of the Port of Baltimore](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/26/business/baltimore-port-autos-cruises/index.html), which the [US Bureau of Transportation Statistics describes](https://www.bts.gov/current-transportation-statistics/information-about-port-baltimore) as follows:\n\n>The Port of Baltimore is among the top 20 ports in the United States by tonnage and number of containers handled, is 10th largest port for dry bulk, and is a major hub for the import and export of motorized vehicles.\n\nIn response to the collapse authorities have established a Unified Command composed of the US Coast Guard, the US Army Corps of Engineers, Maryland officials, and Witt O'Brien's, an emergency management firm. The Unified Command is working to clear the river of debris and establish shipping lanes that can access the port. To date [three channels have been established](https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2024/04/unified-command-opens-third-alternative-channel-in-baltimore/?gdpr=accept), though the maximum controlling depth of the available channels is only 20 feet. [WorldCargoNews.com, describes the latest channel to open and the depth requirements for shipping as follows](https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2024/04/unified-command-opens-third-alternative-channel-in-baltimore/?gdpr=accept):\n\n>The channel has a controlling depth of 20 feet (6.09 meters), a 300-foot horizontal clearance, and a vertical clearance of 135 feet, which is slightly deeper than the first two alternative routes. This is expected to bring transit estimates to approximately 15% of pre-collapse commercial activity.\n>\n>That being said, ultra-large container ships typically require channels with a depth of at least 50 feet (15.24 meters) to accommodate their draft, and for 24,000 TEU ships, this further extends to channel depths of around 18 meters or more. As such, the arrival of large containerships to Baltimore is likely to wait for another month, as U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) aims to reopen the channel fully by the end of May.\n\nThe Unified Command [has announced](https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/limited-access-channel-to-move-cargo-traffic-at-port-of-baltimore-to-be-ready-by-end-of-april/) that they are aiming to open a [limited access channel](https://media.defense.gov/2024/Apr/15/2003439563/2000/2000/0/240415-A-A1420-1002.PNG), 35 feet deep and 280 feet wide, by the end of April. The Unified Command shares updates at its [Key Bridge Response page](https://www.keybridgeresponse2024.com/), and the Army Corps of Engineers also [maintains a page](https://www.nab.usace.army.mil/KeyBridgeResponse/) for sharing updates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 1, 2024, credible sources report that a new channel has been opened at the location of the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge that has a channel depth of at least 30 feet and a width of at least 250 feet.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, to be considered credible the sources must cite public statements made by officials overseeing the operations.\n* If the specific dimensions of the channel are not reported the question will still resolve as **Yes ** if reports indicate that the \"limited access channel\" [previously described](https://www.nab.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Releases/Article/3731790/us-army-corps-of-engineers-develops-tentative-timeline-to-reopen-fort-mchenry-c/) has been successfully opened. \n\n<a href=\"https://www.keybridgeresponse2024.com/\">\n<img src=\"https://static.wixstatic.com/media/4d756b_37429c10344546b395c1e78553f33253~mv2.png/v1/crop/x_0,y_830,w_4500,h_4141/fill/w_918,h_845,fp_0.50_0.50,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/FSKB_NavCapablity_graphic_NoAux-15APR2024.png\" alt=\"Navigation Capability Graphic\" />\n</a>", "post_id": 22532, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714059713.217094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714059713.217094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9753943295408101 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02608736062229848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.07839396989651e-06, 5.131320410279707e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.226059427147825e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01621011892349815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5629757473380443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7944484374606974e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011177491715655643, 1.8474549317889146e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.717435285075685e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.263727321171126e-05, 4.3659966631119545e-06, 0.0, 4.427726253352753e-05, 0.0, 0.00023837534085679364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000369261746866295, 0.007059524406762412, 0.0003503775547642438, 0.0, 0.08779593874773865, 0.16380125112680796, 1.9961842788088169, 0.2210194664350241, 0.05451891763917239, 0.3554084995888342, 21.694074701481604 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.584454331995582, "coverage": 0.2567926913715544, "baseline_score": 24.88884902775858, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 2.584454331995582, "baseline_archived_score": 24.88884902775858, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714033192.052203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 171, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714033192.052203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 171, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03348308803683098, 0.966516911963169 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 253, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Francis Scott Key Bridge, a major bridge over the Patapsco River, which flows into the Chesapeake Bay, [collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_collapse) on March 26, 2024. The collapse resulted in the [closure of the Port of Baltimore](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/26/business/baltimore-port-autos-cruises/index.html), which the [US Bureau of Transportation Statistics describes](https://www.bts.gov/current-transportation-statistics/information-about-port-baltimore) as follows:\n\n>The Port of Baltimore is among the top 20 ports in the United States by tonnage and number of containers handled, is 10th largest port for dry bulk, and is a major hub for the import and export of motorized vehicles.\n\nIn response to the collapse authorities have established a Unified Command composed of the US Coast Guard, the US Army Corps of Engineers, Maryland officials, and Witt O'Brien's, an emergency management firm. The Unified Command is working to clear the river of debris and establish shipping lanes that can access the port. To date [three channels have been established](https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2024/04/unified-command-opens-third-alternative-channel-in-baltimore/?gdpr=accept), though the maximum controlling depth of the available channels is only 20 feet. [WorldCargoNews.com, describes the latest channel to open and the depth requirements for shipping as follows](https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2024/04/unified-command-opens-third-alternative-channel-in-baltimore/?gdpr=accept):\n\n>The channel has a controlling depth of 20 feet (6.09 meters), a 300-foot horizontal clearance, and a vertical clearance of 135 feet, which is slightly deeper than the first two alternative routes. This is expected to bring transit estimates to approximately 15% of pre-collapse commercial activity.\n>\n>That being said, ultra-large container ships typically require channels with a depth of at least 50 feet (15.24 meters) to accommodate their draft, and for 24,000 TEU ships, this further extends to channel depths of around 18 meters or more. As such, the arrival of large containerships to Baltimore is likely to wait for another month, as U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) aims to reopen the channel fully by the end of May.\n\nThe Unified Command [has announced](https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/limited-access-channel-to-move-cargo-traffic-at-port-of-baltimore-to-be-ready-by-end-of-april/) that they are aiming to open a [limited access channel](https://media.defense.gov/2024/Apr/15/2003439563/2000/2000/0/240415-A-A1420-1002.PNG), 35 feet deep and 280 feet wide, by the end of April. The Unified Command shares updates at its [Key Bridge Response page](https://www.keybridgeresponse2024.com/), and the Army Corps of Engineers also [maintains a page](https://www.nab.usace.army.mil/KeyBridgeResponse/) for sharing updates." }, { "id": 22526, "title": "Will Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House on May 20, 2024?", "short_title": "Mike Johnson Speaker on May 20, 2024?", "url_title": "Mike Johnson Speaker on May 20, 2024?", "slug": "mike-johnson-speaker-on-may-20-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-22T14:35:50.764981Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.768280Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 338, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22526, "title": "Will Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House on May 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-22T14:35:50.764981Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-26T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-26T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Republicans in the House of Representatives began the 118th Congress with a majority of 222 to 212, however due to resignations the majority has shrunk to [216 seats to 213 Democratic seats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#Party_summary), the latest being Mike Gallagher's resignation, which [became effective on April 19](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/22/republican-house-majority-mike-gallagher). That means that if Democrats vote as a bloc, Republicans can only have one defection and still get a majority vote in the House.\n\nSpeaker of the House Mike Johnson succeeded Kevin McCarthy after McCarthy was [ousted in October 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mccarthy-says-he-thinks-he-will-survive-leadership-challenge-us-house-2023-10-03/). However, with a slim majority and some contentious disagreements in his conference — especially regarding foreign aid to Ukraine — his hold on the speaker position may be tenuous. Currently only [one member](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/18/politics/mike-johnson-speakership-rules/index.html) is needed to submit a motion to vacate, forcing a vote on removing the speaker, though there has been [recent discussion regarding changing this rule](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/18/mike-johnson-gaetz-motion-to-vacate-ukraine).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mike Johnson is Speaker of the US House of Representatives on May 20, 2024, at noon Eastern Time. If he is not Speaker of the House it resolves as **No**. Johnson need not continuously be Speaker until that time so long as he is Speaker at the designated time.", "fine_print": "If Johnson announces he will resign as Speaker but the effective date is after the specified time, the question will still resolve as **Yes** so long as Johnson remains speaker as of the specified time.", "post_id": 22526, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153187.738497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 338, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153187.738497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 338, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9957896651100809 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.403570211668486e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.254285101987536e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.334095600321165e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.872809412626187e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.341657833414461e-06, 0.0, 4.198691869102094e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0200029851686126e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4979866452195777e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3094112158944196e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.785122682668696e-06, 6.257986478355243e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4487972858186793e-07, 1.0133989136461249e-06, 2.817653462614145e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 9.29552147722735e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.907584193789635e-05, 2.472444320597923e-05, 1.4609262482499767e-07, 0.0, 7.09868829962503e-05, 0.0, 0.0005166615786931456, 1.403896668622542e-05, 2.967110241816398e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013398016617137995, 0.005773089013033099, 3.239104470651015e-06, 0.027726447682343437, 1.969901594340334e-05, 0.0024024027033146484, 0.0, 0.0, 3.845155445941607e-06, 0.0016839465354915246, 0.03786562041031611, 0.00016100263485058862, 0.041778550141956305, 0.04063777577628935, 35.1125924996985 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.49895538619656, "coverage": 0.9999718321046684, "baseline_score": 96.99569858782694, "spot_peer_score": 16.924978210619383, "peer_archived_score": 12.49895538619656, "baseline_archived_score": 96.99569858782694, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.924978210619383 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153187.81872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 338, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153187.81872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 338, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0028256921326352824, 0.9971743078673647 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 923, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Republicans in the House of Representatives began the 118th Congress with a majority of 222 to 212, however due to resignations the majority has shrunk to [216 seats to 213 Democratic seats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#Party_summary), the latest being Mike Gallagher's resignation, which [became effective on April 19](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/22/republican-house-majority-mike-gallagher). That means that if Democrats vote as a bloc, Republicans can only have one defection and still get a majority vote in the House.\n\nSpeaker of the House Mike Johnson succeeded Kevin McCarthy after McCarthy was [ousted in October 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mccarthy-says-he-thinks-he-will-survive-leadership-challenge-us-house-2023-10-03/). However, with a slim majority and some contentious disagreements in his conference — especially regarding foreign aid to Ukraine — his hold on the speaker position may be tenuous. Currently only [one member](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/18/politics/mike-johnson-speakership-rules/index.html) is needed to submit a motion to vacate, forcing a vote on removing the speaker, though there has been [recent discussion regarding changing this rule](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/18/mike-johnson-gaetz-motion-to-vacate-ukraine)." } ] }
](http://channel](https://media.defense.gov/2024/Apr/15/2003439563/2000/2000/0/240415-A-A1420-1002.PNG)){kind=link}
