Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3080
{ "count": 6357, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3100", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3060", "results": [ { "id": 22525, "title": "Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?", "short_title": "Russian assets seized in 2024", "url_title": "Russian assets seized in 2024", "slug": "russian-assets-seized-in-2024", "author_id": 122079, "author_username": "wd28", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-22T07:56:32.847279Z", "published_at": "2024-04-26T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.315455Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-26T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-28T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-28T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T19:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-26T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22525, "title": "Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-22T07:56:32.847279Z", "open_time": "2024-04-26T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-29T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-29T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T19:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T19:46:44.944279Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-28T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-28T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in 2022, almost $300bn of Russian sovereign assets were frozen in Western countries. There is a heated debate about whether to seize those assets, and transfer funds to help Ukraine in the war, with arguments both [in favor](https://www.justsecurity.org/93004/past-time-to-liquidate-russian-assets/) and [against](https://ubn.news/the-head-of-the-ecb-criticizes-the-us-plans-regarding-the-frozen-assets-of-the-russian-federation/) the move.\n\nRecently, US House of Representatives passed [a measure that authorizes (but not obliges) president to seize Russian sovereign assets](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/house-vote-billions-dollars-russian-government-money-sitting-us-banks-rcna148671). \n\nIt should be noted that only a minor fraction of these assets are frozen in the US, with majority stuck in [Belgian depositary Euroclear](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-frozen-russian-assets-generate-15-20-bln-until-2027-eu-official-says-2024-03-12/#:~:text=Some%2070%25%20of%20all%20Russian,central%20bank%20securities%20and%20cash.).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that any Russian sovereign assets currently frozen in the US or any EU country are seized on the government's order, before January 1, 2025. \n\nOnly sovereign assets count; assets belonging to individuals, private, or state-owned Russian companies do not count towards resolution of this question. Seizing profits generated by frozen assets, such as interest on bank accounts, also does not count.\n\nIf no credible sources report the seizure of Russian sovereign assets by the US or EU before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolution will be based solely on the act of seizure of these assets, regardless of any subsequent utilization, sale, or conversion of the assets.", "post_id": 22525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735311652.83255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735311652.83255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04681747472101456 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.100618638745713, 2.6417489775511074, 1.0389214840438266, 0.5912368114370814, 0.5567884362876924, 0.3637557883106848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1809392623709519, 0.04604314668505586, 0.16659473532271923, 0.0, 0.19192463488492234, 0.0, 0.2123642000108881, 0.03331085633663661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1550723073964014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02349653657703422, 0.0, 0.03863627442329193, 0.0, 0.5521707312792997, 0.008989210862367118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00764267295316474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010489473131136438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0053628669779807745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001034323308801349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014003379319251127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17039268102726088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016045120613645693, 0.0028115822550663413, 0.0, 0.029744562688391502, 0.0, 0.06890810216651459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018296883616726805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006437720576519247 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 67.23220450078477, "peer_score": 44.75328758739248, "coverage": 0.9999895977528196, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999895977528196, "spot_peer_score": 69.36658052265562, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756145, "baseline_archived_score": 67.23220450078477, "peer_archived_score": 44.75328758739248, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 69.36658052265562, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756145 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289398.760701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289398.760701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9985790829684865, 0.0014209170315135238 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 215, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in 2022, almost $300bn of Russian sovereign assets were frozen in Western countries. There is a heated debate about whether to seize those assets, and transfer funds to help Ukraine in the war, with arguments both [in favor](https://www.justsecurity.org/93004/past-time-to-liquidate-russian-assets/) and [against](https://ubn.news/the-head-of-the-ecb-criticizes-the-us-plans-regarding-the-frozen-assets-of-the-russian-federation/) the move.\n\nRecently, US House of Representatives passed [a measure that authorizes (but not obliges) president to seize Russian sovereign assets](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/house-vote-billions-dollars-russian-government-money-sitting-us-banks-rcna148671). \n\nIt should be noted that only a minor fraction of these assets are frozen in the US, with majority stuck in [Belgian depositary Euroclear](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-frozen-russian-assets-generate-15-20-bln-until-2027-eu-official-says-2024-03-12/#:~:text=Some%2070%25%20of%20all%20Russian,central%20bank%20securities%20and%20cash.)." }, { "id": 22524, "title": "Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 30% before 2030?", "short_title": "U.S. Employment Below 30% by 2030", "url_title": "U.S. Employment Below 30% by 2030", "slug": "us-employment-below-30-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-21T18:05:17.339903Z", "published_at": "2024-06-28T22:41:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T03:32:40.153213Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-28T22:41:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-28T22:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22524, "title": "Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 30% before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-04-21T18:05:17.339903Z", "open_time": "2024-06-28T22:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-01T22:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-01T22:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The two [noteworthy dips](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm#:~:text=Employment%E2%80%93population%20ratio%2C%20seasonally%20adjusted&text=Data%20ranges%20from%2051.2%20to%2063.4.) in U.S. employment over the past twenty years came with the 2008 recession and the 2020 Covid pandemic. There is now [growing anxiety](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230418-ai-anxiety-artificial-intelligence-replace-jobs) that the upcoming AI revolution might displace jobs on a far greater scale, in everything from [art](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalkowitz/2022/09/16/ai-is-coming-for-commercial-art-jobs-can-it-be-stopped/) to [software engineering](https://www.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/1bh4jl3/is_devin_ai_really_going_to_takeover_software/). This question aims to shed light on the likelihood of that happening.\n\n_See also [this companion question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22523/us-employment-below-50-by-2027/) about employment falling below 50% by 2027._", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2030, the employment-population ratio in the U.S. falls below 30%. [Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm) will be used as the resolution source.", "fine_print": "If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics discontinues its employment-population data, then Metaculus admins will aim to find another resolution source. Failing that, the question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 22524, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763177549.466773, "end_time": 1763603160.943465, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763177549.466773, "end_time": 1763603160.943465, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.027868167156905748 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.222192843900078, 2.0438377756731745, 0.8266470481850833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6673229777384659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288029.340675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288029.340675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994587860135566, 0.0005412139864433742 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The two [noteworthy dips](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm#:~:text=Employment%E2%80%93population%20ratio%2C%20seasonally%20adjusted&text=Data%20ranges%20from%2051.2%20to%2063.4.) in U.S. employment over the past twenty years came with the 2008 recession and the 2020 Covid pandemic. There is now [growing anxiety](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230418-ai-anxiety-artificial-intelligence-replace-jobs) that the upcoming AI revolution might displace jobs on a far greater scale, in everything from [art](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalkowitz/2022/09/16/ai-is-coming-for-commercial-art-jobs-can-it-be-stopped/) to [software engineering](https://www.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/1bh4jl3/is_devin_ai_really_going_to_takeover_software/). This question aims to shed light on the likelihood of that happening.\n\n_See also [this companion question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22523/us-employment-below-50-by-2027/) about employment falling below 50% by 2027._" }, { "id": 22523, "title": "Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?", "short_title": "U.S. Employment Below 50% by 2027", "url_title": "U.S. Employment Below 50% by 2027", "slug": "us-employment-below-50-by-2027", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-21T17:43:38.146433Z", "published_at": "2024-05-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T20:33:11.278775Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22523, "title": "Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?", "created_at": "2024-04-21T17:43:38.146433Z", "open_time": "2024-05-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The two [noteworthy dips](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm#:~:text=Employment%E2%80%93population%20ratio%2C%20seasonally%20adjusted&text=Data%20ranges%20from%2051.2%20to%2063.4.) in U.S. employment over the past twenty years came with the 2008 recession and the 2020 Covid pandemic. There is now [growing anxiety](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230418-ai-anxiety-artificial-intelligence-replace-jobs) that the upcoming AI revolution might displace jobs on an even greater scale, in everything from [art](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalkowitz/2022/09/16/ai-is-coming-for-commercial-art-jobs-can-it-be-stopped/) to [software engineering](https://www.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/1bh4jl3/is_devin_ai_really_going_to_takeover_software/). This question aims to shed light on the likelihood of that happening.\n\n_See also [this companion question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22524/us-employment-below-30-by-2032/) about employment falling below 30% by 2030._", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, the employment-population ratio in the U.S. falls below 50%. [Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm) will be used as the resolution source.", "fine_print": "If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics discontinues its employment-population data, then Metaculus admins will aim to find another resolution source. Failing that, the question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 22523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763115391.642, "end_time": 1763838528.037797, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.006 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763115391.642, "end_time": 1763838528.037797, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.0056161014383095354 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.271631432078854, 1.8396435881716167, 1.1580238977136608, 0.05484614599243266, 0.0, 0.010175510648281665, 0.0044440085329729906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288701.024063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288701.024063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9947143365203654, 0.005285663479634546 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 246, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The two [noteworthy dips](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm#:~:text=Employment%E2%80%93population%20ratio%2C%20seasonally%20adjusted&text=Data%20ranges%20from%2051.2%20to%2063.4.) in U.S. employment over the past twenty years came with the 2008 recession and the 2020 Covid pandemic. There is now [growing anxiety](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230418-ai-anxiety-artificial-intelligence-replace-jobs) that the upcoming AI revolution might displace jobs on an even greater scale, in everything from [art](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalkowitz/2022/09/16/ai-is-coming-for-commercial-art-jobs-can-it-be-stopped/) to [software engineering](https://www.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/1bh4jl3/is_devin_ai_really_going_to_takeover_software/). This question aims to shed light on the likelihood of that happening.\n\n_See also [this companion question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22524/us-employment-below-30-by-2032/) about employment falling below 30% by 2030._" }, { "id": 22470, "title": "Will Joe Biden have a polling lead over Donald Trump on May 20, 2024?", "short_title": "Biden Polling Lead Over Trump May 20, 2024?", "url_title": "Biden Polling Lead Over Trump May 20, 2024?", "slug": "biden-polling-lead-over-trump-may-20-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-19T19:42:04.197876Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.862531Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T18:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T18:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 366, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22470, "title": "Will Joe Biden have a polling lead over Donald Trump on May 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-19T19:42:04.197876Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T18:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T18:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T18:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2024 US Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election)\t will take place on November 5, 2024. Joe Biden of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party have each [secured enough delegates](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/primary-elections-georgia-washington-mississippi-03-12-24/index.html) to clinch their party nominations. \n\nReal Clear Politics (RCP) [tracks polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) for the presidential race and computes a polling average for Biden and Trump. As of April 19, 2024, Trump is up 0.4 percentage points, having narrowed from a 2.0 percentage point polling lead for Trump on March 1, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [RealClearPolitics polling average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) as of May 20, 2024, at 2 PM ET shows Biden with a lead over Trump.", "fine_print": "* The figure used will be that shown in the \"Spread\" column in the \"RCP Average\" row under the \"Polling Data\" heading. If this information is moved or rearranged Metaculus will use the equivalent figure in the revised format to resolve the question.\n\n* A lead will be considered any positive value shown for Biden. \"Tie\" or any other value that indicates Biden's polling average is equal to or below Trumps will result in the question resolving as **No**.\n\n* If the website is down or otherwise inaccessible to Metaculus at the scheduled time the question will resolve according to the polling average shown when first accessed by Metaculus after 2 PM ET and before May 21 ET. 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Joe Biden of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party have each [secured enough delegates](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/primary-elections-georgia-washington-mississippi-03-12-24/index.html) to clinch their party nominations. \n\nReal Clear Politics (RCP) [tracks polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) for the presidential race and computes a polling average for Biden and Trump. 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He has yet to make an international trip in 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that U.S. President Joe Biden has traveled outside of the United States at any point between April 24, 2024 and May 20, 2024, inclusive (in Eastern Time).", "fine_print": "- For the purposes of this question, \"United States\" means, collectively, the 50 states, Washington D.C., the five [inhabited territories](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States#Inhabited_territories) and nine [uninhabited territories](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States#Uninhabited_territories).\n\n- Only reports available before 9 am ET on May 21, 2024 will be considered for resolution. 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In February 2023, Antarctic sea ice levels hit [new record lows](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64649596), breaking the previous record set just a year earlier. Antarctic sea ice also recorded a record minimum in peak extent in September 2023, setting a [new record low for most of the year](https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-2023-was-an-exceptional-year-for-antarctic-sea-ice/).\n\nTypically, sea ice levels begin to recover in late February or early March.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the data reported in [the Antarctic version of this graph](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) from the National Snow & Ice Data Center, the area of Antarctic sea ice extent is greater on May 20, 2024 than the average from 2011-2020 for that date (10.511 million square kilometers as of April 19, 2024). The question will resolve when accessed by Metaculus on May 21, 2024.", "fine_print": "* As of April 19, 2024, the resolution source shows 10.511 million square kilometers for the May 20 average 2011-2020, however this figure could see revisions. The question will resolve according to the areas shown at the resolution source when accessed by Metaculus to resolve the question.\n* Note that the link defaults to the Arctic sea ice chart. 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In February 2023, Antarctic sea ice levels hit [new record lows](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64649596), breaking the previous record set just a year earlier. Antarctic sea ice also recorded a record minimum in peak extent in September 2023, setting a [new record low for most of the year](https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-2023-was-an-exceptional-year-for-antarctic-sea-ice/).\n\nTypically, sea ice levels begin to recover in late February or early March." }, { "id": 22415, "title": "Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?", "short_title": "Trump Testifies at Hush Money Trial?", "url_title": "Trump Testifies at Hush Money Trial?", "slug": "trump-testifies-at-hush-money-trial", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-15T04:07:58.256342Z", "published_at": "2024-04-17T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.957026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-17T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-15T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-17T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22415, "title": "Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?", "created_at": "2024-04-15T04:07:58.256342Z", "open_time": "2024-04-17T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-20T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-20T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The commencement of Donald Trump's [trial in the so-called \"hush money\" case](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4589001-5-things-to-know-ahead-of-trumps-hush-money-trial/) marks a historic moment as he becomes the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges in court. The trial centers around allegations that Trump, during the 2016 presidential campaign, orchestrated a hush money payment to an adult film actress to prevent damaging stories from surfacing. This payment, and similar transactions, are claimed by the Manhattan district attorney to have been unlawfully logged as legal expenses by Trump’s company.\n\nThe trial is scheduled to commence on April 15th, 2024 and is expected to last approximately six weeks.\n\n*This question is part of the Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup, however, if the trial has not concluded when the tournament ends on July 8, 2024, it will not be scored in the Quarterly Cup. It will still count as part of the annual leaderboard.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report Donald Trump has testified, whether in person or remotely, at the [trial](https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/webcrim_attorney/Detail?which=case&docketNumber=q23XFOwZRDQ1d4LrNRdw2clqCMt/CzUoG/kRII/7Nmg=&countyId=K4i18rFVPQh5HTQ/kUoO3Q==&docketId=3Y4iKU5oHM75AtDme2cPhw==&docketDseq=T/O1YN_PLUS_BG65HkOeqEnpAkw==&defendantName=TRUMP,+DONALD&court=New+York+Supreme+Criminal+Court&courtType=U&recordType=U&recordNum=) concerning the so-called \"hush money\" payments to Stormy Daniels.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22415, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716302481.682086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716302481.682086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.031061825746890103 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.5652573397589977, 10.875826480477647, 0.3638339786691888, 0.5381841818608172, 0.47572901100201265, 0.4846846242754037, 1.0928425626983087, 0.13702143948282391, 0.20622437320935438, 0.1312015730709764, 0.5612680275356114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20178648011237701, 0.5146013799864679, 0.06585270037607036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17218393912476843, 0.019440665917616475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0043966556567804835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06308080255777047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011740563879277114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0061133516164967525, 0.005226339774603747, 0.0, 0.0018212754359516522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004222618160365907, 0.0, 0.0015895181711987486, 0.001379858935095631, 0.002076872183638831, 0.08822087566696155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011906560386692468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024412630734546445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008675168513705744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028447386743221566, 0.0, 0.01111357661632158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030057296334305714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005002583573277096 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.575441475706397, "coverage": 0.579737267669804, "baseline_score": 29.9943868395043, "spot_peer_score": 18.921193086909916, "peer_archived_score": 14.575441475706397, "baseline_archived_score": 29.9943868395043, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.921193086909916 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716283331.233197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716283331.233197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9975052005700773, 0.0024947994299227326 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 416, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The commencement of Donald Trump's [trial in the so-called \"hush money\" case](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4589001-5-things-to-know-ahead-of-trumps-hush-money-trial/) marks a historic moment as he becomes the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges in court. 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It will still count as part of the annual leaderboard.*" }, { "id": 22403, "title": "Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024?", "url_title": "Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024?", "slug": "israel-deadly-attack-on-iran-before-may-2024", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-13T21:35:02.868594Z", "published_at": "2024-04-13T22:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.295688Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-13T22:04:51.200604Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-13T22:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 188, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22403, "title": "Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-13T21:35:02.868594Z", "open_time": "2024-04-13T22:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-13T22:04:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-13T22:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-01T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In a significant escalation of regional tensions, [Iran launched a coordinated aerial attack targeting Israeli territory on April 13, 2024](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-tries-to-calibrate-response-against-israel-after-deadly-bombing-abb38b57). This action by Iran came as a direct retaliation for an [Israeli airstrike earlier in the month](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240#:~:text=An%20Israeli%20airstrike%20in%20a,at%20least%20five%20Iranian%20advisers.), which struck the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, which resulted in the deaths of seven Iranian officers, including three high-ranking commanders, intensifying Iran's resolve to respond.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Israel and occurring within Iran's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:\n\n- Occur within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. Iran's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Iran's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Iran\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Iran.\"\n- Israel must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Israel's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n- The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n- The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Israel will meet this criterion.", "post_id": 22403, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714538228.494976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714538228.494976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0190352170484517 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.434651751450073, 14.900486885104097, 1.0249612381843634, 0.4027530758800595, 0.11267552541715342, 0.5746168679417991, 0.09280362732725916, 0.010758444363451216, 0.48492412810061014, 0.07812393778734172, 0.1652521502992917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005187082526050941, 0.0, 0.026207760141252076, 0.0, 0.001973405739221917, 0.0016105181627922883, 0.0, 0.005120145818464545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4910009576402285, 0.020522927048885906, 0.0009789997041040929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026805035591994123, 0.0, 0.0021091404892904075, 0.0012170696924959827, 0.0, 0.009822809351416623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003522061774533215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005277461334024565, 0.005699906798107319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013429419526925934, 0.0, 0.005071787152149256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001818570376078752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005548996211789952, 0.008133777104706752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042489679133293637, 0.0013067117799961463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002736543845881099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027491534235998833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002977467838088582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00469587643000096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017244623254925426, 0.0, 1.2854463433568096e-05, 0.0, 8.200551082231178e-06, 0.0014019645552389801, 0.011782646294958477 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 66.15992764929526, "coverage": 0.9997527401577037, "baseline_score": 79.42254317497269, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 66.15992764929526, "baseline_archived_score": 79.42254317497269, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714538228.549801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714538228.549801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 745, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In a significant escalation of regional tensions, [Iran launched a coordinated aerial attack targeting Israeli territory on April 13, 2024](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-tries-to-calibrate-response-against-israel-after-deadly-bombing-abb38b57). This action by Iran came as a direct retaliation for an [Israeli airstrike earlier in the month](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240#:~:text=An%20Israeli%20airstrike%20in%20a,at%20least%20five%20Iranian%20advisers.), which struck the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, which resulted in the deaths of seven Iranian officers, including three high-ranking commanders, intensifying Iran's resolve to respond." }, { "id": 22394, "title": "Will an interest rate cut below current levels occur or increase in likelihood for June following the May 1, 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?", "short_title": "Interest Rate Cut More Likely After May FOMC?", "url_title": "Interest Rate Cut More Likely After May FOMC?", "slug": "interest-rate-cut-more-likely-after-may-fomc", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-13T03:58:53.770218Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.156795Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T20:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T20:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 407, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22394, "title": "Will an interest rate cut below current levels occur or increase in likelihood for June following the May 1, 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?", "created_at": "2024-04-13T03:58:53.770218Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T20:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T20:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-01T20:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.\n\nThe primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.\n\nThe next FOMC meeting will be [April 30-May 1, 2024](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). The CME Group's [CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) calculates probabilities of rate cuts and hikes using 30-Day Federal Funds futures prices. Its methodology is described [here](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2023/understanding-the-cme-group-fedwatch-tool-methodology.html), and a video overview is available [here](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/videos/introduction-to-cme-fedwatch.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) either announces a decrease in the federal funds rate on May 1, 2024, **or** if following the FOMC's statement on May 1 the [CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) reports that the probability of a rate cut at the FOMC's June meeting has increased relative to the day prior.", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the question will resolve as **Yes** if the following occurs when the FOMC makes its statement on May 1, 2024 following its meeting:\n * If the FOMC announces a decrease in the target [federal funds rate](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) on May 1, 2024, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n * If the FOMC does **not** announce a decrease in the target [federal funds rate](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) on May 1, 2024, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the \"TARGET RATE PROBABILITIES FOR 12 JUN 2024 FED MEETING\" reported by the [CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html), when checked at 4:30pm ET on May 1, 2024, shows a higher cumulative probability for rate cuts relative to the current target rate in the \"Now\" column when compared to the \"1 Day (30 April 2024)\" column.\n * If none of the above conditions occur, this question will resolve as **No**.\n* The relevant information in the CME FedWatch Tool can be found by selecting \"Current\" under \"Target Rate\" on the left side and selecting \"12 Jun24\" in the top window.\n* If a decrease in the target federal funds rate is announced before the April 30-May 1 meeting this question will 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The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.\n\nThe primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.\n\nThe next FOMC meeting will be [April 30-May 1, 2024](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). The CME Group's [CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) calculates probabilities of rate cuts and hikes using 30-Day Federal Funds futures prices. Its methodology is described [here](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2023/understanding-the-cme-group-fedwatch-tool-methodology.html), and a video overview is available [here](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/videos/introduction-to-cme-fedwatch.html)." }, { "id": 22391, "title": "Will the United Nations Security Council pass a resolution related to the Gaza War between April 23 and May 20, 2024?", "short_title": "Security Council Gaza Resolution May 2024?", "url_title": "Security Council Gaza Resolution May 2024?", "slug": "security-council-gaza-resolution-may-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-13T02:09:27.244100Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.278440Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 387, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22391, "title": "Will the United Nations Security Council pass a resolution related to the Gaza War between April 23 and May 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-13T02:09:27.244100Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-21T14:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [United Nations (UN) Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council) is a UN body responsible for matters of [international peace and security](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/). The [council's membership](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/current-members) consists of five permanent members made up of China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as 10 non-permanent members. [Three-fifths of the members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council#Veto_power) must vote in favor for a resolution for it to pass, though the five permanent members have veto power, and any one permanent member can veto a resolution.\n\nIn early March 2024 the United States used its veto power to [block a resolution calling for a ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) in the [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war). The US had also blocked previous resolutions calling for a ceasefire, including [one in December 2023](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-un-resolution-ceasefire-humanitarian-6d3bfd31d6c25168e828274d96b85cf8). However, on March 25 the US abstained on a ceasefire resolution, [allowing it to pass](https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15641.doc.htm). This change was [characterized by some media sources](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/25/1240669997/united-nations-security-council-cease-fire-resolution-gaza-israel-war) as stemming from US frustrations with Israel's strategy and the [risk it poses to civilians](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna144870/rcrd37624?canonicalCard=true).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between April 23 and May 20, 2024 (inclusive), the United Nations Security Council passes a resolution related to the Israel-Gaza conflict.\n\nThe UN Security Council [website](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/resolutions-adopted-security-council-2024), as well as other credible sources, will be considered for the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "In the event of a dispute as to whether a passed resolution is \"related to the Israel-Gaza conflict,\" such a dispute shall resolve at the discretion of Metaculus admins.", "post_id": 22391, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153974.246857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 387, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153974.246857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 387, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.019585463791845666 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.970484339829774, 16.191429473401712, 2.1712067488867235, 1.1333571333869434, 0.6901437206846075, 0.15746472294415803, 0.09717767228343471, 0.9272707854066617, 0.0075871375864723575, 2.3429221153634647e-06, 0.020091637665848774, 0.002672907392276578, 0.0003465041847570314, 0.054516004565774094, 1.6501462657761562e-05, 0.030431025312320597, 0.003830974896334983, 3.849135672840039e-07, 5.68188304717432e-07, 0.0019193946878468553, 0.002546617640096248, 3.860083857556809e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.462657350905602e-06, 0.0024908218842170145, 0.0025547599647699724, 0.00030460988363456153, 0.001276372094931676, 0.0, 0.010176254049799889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006467908564427192, 0.002096489346622371, 0.002033491341100943, 0.00595471315484911, 0.004536044777078765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001654358850762581, 0.002979770149872056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.954069565066377e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1539547836719714e-06, 0.00021446941598466442, 0.00031802977920056394, 4.7559357626894226e-06, 0.0, 9.138230673838725e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3057265971301477e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001291986832928291, 0.0008566312588458583, 0.00020510763139589138, 0.0, 0.0, 4.444485940771898e-06, 0.00026739263661400194, 4.645827973645983e-05, 0.0007908901404446731, 0.0011025227811448021, 0.002291913131167132, 2.5231925085215844e-06, 2.676294392997983e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002094689246057029, 8.887895766728961e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000666507739922721, 0.0010673263635943664, 3.8372638118504966e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000989796896907242, 5.6979406989443894e-05, 0.0003230508850608541, 0.0, 0.0, 6.613821840509488e-06, 0.0007015990458750426, 9.074358902989603e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 5.435923483620645e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33713222517056807 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 34.88455110135123, "coverage": 0.9998916442744703, "baseline_score": 69.91972908347753, "spot_peer_score": 38.35107268753709, "peer_archived_score": 34.88455110135123, "baseline_archived_score": 69.91972908347753, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.35107268753709 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153974.319022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 387, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153974.319022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 387, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991556797445492, 0.0008443202554507707 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [United Nations (UN) Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council) is a UN body responsible for matters of [international peace and security](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/). The [council's membership](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/current-members) consists of five permanent members made up of China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as 10 non-permanent members. [Three-fifths of the members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council#Veto_power) must vote in favor for a resolution for it to pass, though the five permanent members have veto power, and any one permanent member can veto a resolution.\n\nIn early March 2024 the United States used its veto power to [block a resolution calling for a ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) in the [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war). The US had also blocked previous resolutions calling for a ceasefire, including [one in December 2023](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-un-resolution-ceasefire-humanitarian-6d3bfd31d6c25168e828274d96b85cf8). However, on March 25 the US abstained on a ceasefire resolution, [allowing it to pass](https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15641.doc.htm). This change was [characterized by some media sources](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/25/1240669997/united-nations-security-council-cease-fire-resolution-gaza-israel-war) as stemming from US frustrations with Israel's strategy and the [risk it poses to civilians](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna144870/rcrd37624?canonicalCard=true)." }, { "id": 22390, "title": "Will Donald Trump file a new writ petition or application for stay with the US Supreme Court between April 16 and May 19, 2024?", "short_title": "Trump SCOTUS Petition in April-May 2024?", "url_title": "Trump SCOTUS Petition in April-May 2024?", "slug": "trump-scotus-petition-in-april-may-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-13T01:27:16.402376Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.355862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 348, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22390, "title": "Will Donald Trump file a new writ petition or application for stay with the US Supreme Court between April 16 and May 19, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-13T01:27:16.402376Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T16:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The unprecedented legal and constitutional questions raised in Donald Trump's various cases have resulted in frequent appeals to the US Supreme Court to challenge or seek relief from lower court decisions. These actions are part of the broader legal and political narrative surrounding Trump's legal disputes, including inquiries into his business dealings, the handling of classified information, and allegations of electoral interference.\n\nThis question pertains to two of the most common filings in supreme court cases:\n\n**Writ Petition:**\n\nA writ petition is a formal request to a higher court to review a lower court's decision. One common type of writ is a writ of certiorari, which the Supreme Court uses to decide most of the cases it hears. The petitioner asks the Supreme Court to consider the legal or constitutional issues raised by the case's facts. The issuance of a writ indicates the higher court's agreement to hear the case, although it does not predetermine the case's outcome.\n\n**Application for Stay:**\n\nAn application for stay is a request to temporarily halt the enforcement of a lower court's decision while the appeal process is ongoing. It is essentially a request for the preservation of the status quo to prevent irreparable harm that could result from implementing the lower court's decision if it were eventually overturned on appeal. In the context of the Supreme Court, a party might file an application for stay pending the Court's decision on whether to take up the case (grant certiorari) or while an appeal is being considered.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Donald Trump has, between April 16 and May 19, 2024 (inclusive), filed as (i) \"applicant\" on an application for a stay and/or as (ii) \"petitioner\" on petition for a writ of certiorari to the United States Supreme Court.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22390, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716154203.654277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716154203.654277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.006619190695494708 ], "histogram": [ [ 22.329948352730895, 11.946352854787715, 0.7765056707567817, 0.5701045331033215, 0.015373289117554386, 0.052136263807544214, 0.0027297900640779115, 0.0018632346746041257, 0.019880159429642334, 5.1198838138408164e-05, 0.013331512016627686, 0.0056819448858857835, 0.002187941743933083, 0.004997795588934678, 6.777121789043532e-05, 0.001014704428733202, 0.003440143661516931, 0.0, 3.2052536259731625e-05, 0.0, 0.0059022069417127366, 0.002148118096006363, 0.0, 0.005312771009813975, 0.00019460304567312412, 0.000498241729889014, 0.0, 0.0024973455754519485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012204445502910855, 0.0008654540493190438, 0.0020780046906738636, 8.769208686045956e-06, 0.0, 0.001892164492557012, 0.0, 8.895507836838609e-05, 0.0, 8.445801661430173e-05, 5.506769931265274e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003537516441477871, 0.0, 0.011099580604502203, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7261910205341757e-06, 9.995958690183805e-06, 0.012453827507898725, 1.428899938557998e-06, 0.0013993994025534723, 0.0, 0.0006483696302452195, 1.8693956652080071e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.612200458610468e-05, 0.0006776081312822241, 0.0, 0.0003273069005432758, 0.0, 6.342594438215762e-05, 0.0001834254154689508, 7.01192794965257e-05, 0.0003162275267400642, 0.0011518653980479212, 0.0016605498127839117, 0.0006192924486497196, 4.527850569524471e-06, 1.3156960561933248e-05, 0.0002849196569540623, 0.0, 0.00025302712560335645, 0.0011417884578372982, 0.0008069930422272992, 3.1923344503797098e-06, 1.061551945977105e-06, 0.0005001322540442263, 0.0006102488947790416, 0.001000337354166358, 0.0, 0.0, 6.627167829715093e-05, 0.00018297322000463743, 0.002277204972021649, 0.0, 1.4070314527225243e-05, 0.0, 0.0013444707915270945, 0.0, 3.017348935777246e-05, 0.0, 0.0009521908728801036, 0.00010433276267535323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025931835484185465 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 57.86845468199444, "coverage": 0.999885622619619, "baseline_score": 66.08350403036387, "spot_peer_score": 66.9553705313831, "peer_archived_score": 57.86845468199444, "baseline_archived_score": 66.08350403036387, "spot_peer_archived_score": 66.9553705313831 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716154203.758247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716154203.758247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1045, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The unprecedented legal and constitutional questions raised in Donald Trump's various cases have resulted in frequent appeals to the US Supreme Court to challenge or seek relief from lower court decisions. These actions are part of the broader legal and political narrative surrounding Trump's legal disputes, including inquiries into his business dealings, the handling of classified information, and allegations of electoral interference.\n\nThis question pertains to two of the most common filings in supreme court cases:\n\n**Writ Petition:**\n\nA writ petition is a formal request to a higher court to review a lower court's decision. One common type of writ is a writ of certiorari, which the Supreme Court uses to decide most of the cases it hears. The petitioner asks the Supreme Court to consider the legal or constitutional issues raised by the case's facts. The issuance of a writ indicates the higher court's agreement to hear the case, although it does not predetermine the case's outcome.\n\n**Application for Stay:**\n\nAn application for stay is a request to temporarily halt the enforcement of a lower court's decision while the appeal process is ongoing. It is essentially a request for the preservation of the status quo to prevent irreparable harm that could result from implementing the lower court's decision if it were eventually overturned on appeal. In the context of the Supreme Court, a party might file an application for stay pending the Court's decision on whether to take up the case (grant certiorari) or while an appeal is being considered." }, { "id": 22389, "title": "Will the United States enact a law that protects whistleblowers from disclosing to the general public potential harm to the public caused by an AI system before 2028?", "short_title": "AI Whistleblower Protection", "url_title": "AI Whistleblower Protection", "slug": "ai-whistleblower-protection", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-13T00:48:57.583246Z", "published_at": "2024-05-11T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T01:35:18.820881Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-11T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-11T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22389, "title": "Will the United States enact a law that protects whistleblowers from disclosing to the general public potential harm to the public caused by an AI system before 2028?", "created_at": "2024-04-13T00:48:57.583246Z", "open_time": "2024-05-11T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-16T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-16T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whistleblower protection in the [Defend Trade Secrets Act](https://ogletree.com/insights-resources/blog-posts/whistleblowers-and-trade-secrets-does-the-dtsa-protect-confidential-data/):\n\n> (1) An individual shall not be held criminally or civilly liable under any Federal or State trade secret law for the disclosure of a trade secret that: (A) is made— (i) in confidence to a Federal, State, or local government official, either directly or indirectly, or to an attorney; and (ii) solely for the purpose of reporting or investigating a suspected violation of law; or (B) is made in a complaint or other document filed in a lawsuit or other proceeding, if such filing is made under seal.\n\nAlso from page 139 of [Private Accountability in the Age of Artificial Intelligence](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3309397):\n\n> Finally, it bears mentioning that this solution is only a partial one—it does not go far enough. For example, immunity under the DTSA would be more effective if coupled with a similar whistleblowing exception to the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) (or even a limited exclusion for terms of service violations). It becomes clear, from the issues surrounding the CFAA, that a whistleblower exception might be further warranted in those circumstances, leading commentators to support the idea. In 2008, in the wake of the suicide of Aaron Swartz, U.S. Representative Zoe Lofgren proposed a bill, called “Aaron’s law” that would have excluded terms of service violations from the list of violations under the CFAA. It was never passed. And while the DTSA provides immunity for disclosures to attorneys or government officials, it does not immunize disclosures made to journalists, academics, watchdog groups, or the general public.\n\nAccording to the same source, other jurisdictions have taken further steps:\n\n> Indeed, although the DTSA provisions are extraordinarily promising, it is also important to note that other jurisdictions have taken even broader steps to protect whistleblowing. For example, an equivalent EU Directive included numerous exceptions for the public disclosure of trade secrets “‘for exercising the right to freedom of expression and information . . . , including respect for freedom and pluralism of the media,’ and for revealing a ‘misconduct, wrongdoing or illegal activity, provided that the respondent acted for the purpose of protecting the general public interest.’", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, the US enacts a law that would protect whistleblowers who disclose information to the general public, including trade secrets, for the purpose of reporting the potential for harm caused by an AI system that exists or is in development.\n\nProtection must be from criminal liability, civil liability, and retaliation.\n\nAn enacted law need not fulfill all of the criteria on its own, so long as the end result of the enactment is that the defined whistleblower protections exist. For example, a law might expand previous whistleblower protections to satisfy the remaining criteria.\n\nA law must protect disclosures to the general public made for the sole purpose of reporting a potential harm, and such a law may have requirements on how such a disclosure is made. However, if a law provides no mechanism for the information to reach the public then it will not be considered sufficient to satisfy these criteria.", "fine_print": "\"Disclose information to the general public\" means that in order to count, there must not be restrictions on who can be authorized to receive the disclosed information, such as the US Department of Justice's [whistleblower policy](https://oig.justice.gov/hotline/whistleblower-protection).", "post_id": 22389, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762738508.549319, "end_time": 1764918633.442, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762738508.549319, "end_time": 1764918633.442, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1791977660786109 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3567413241035275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288834.859895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288834.859895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9712787108535923, 0.028721289146407692 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whistleblower protection in the [Defend Trade Secrets Act](https://ogletree.com/insights-resources/blog-posts/whistleblowers-and-trade-secrets-does-the-dtsa-protect-confidential-data/):\n\n> (1) An individual shall not be held criminally or civilly liable under any Federal or State trade secret law for the disclosure of a trade secret that: (A) is made— (i) in confidence to a Federal, State, or local government official, either directly or indirectly, or to an attorney; and (ii) solely for the purpose of reporting or investigating a suspected violation of law; or (B) is made in a complaint or other document filed in a lawsuit or other proceeding, if such filing is made under seal.\n\nAlso from page 139 of [Private Accountability in the Age of Artificial Intelligence](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3309397):\n\n> Finally, it bears mentioning that this solution is only a partial one—it does not go far enough. For example, immunity under the DTSA would be more effective if coupled with a similar whistleblowing exception to the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) (or even a limited exclusion for terms of service violations). It becomes clear, from the issues surrounding the CFAA, that a whistleblower exception might be further warranted in those circumstances, leading commentators to support the idea. In 2008, in the wake of the suicide of Aaron Swartz, U.S. Representative Zoe Lofgren proposed a bill, called “Aaron’s law” that would have excluded terms of service violations from the list of violations under the CFAA. It was never passed. And while the DTSA provides immunity for disclosures to attorneys or government officials, it does not immunize disclosures made to journalists, academics, watchdog groups, or the general public.\n\nAccording to the same source, other jurisdictions have taken further steps:\n\n> Indeed, although the DTSA provisions are extraordinarily promising, it is also important to note that other jurisdictions have taken even broader steps to protect whistleblowing. For example, an equivalent EU Directive included numerous exceptions for the public disclosure of trade secrets “‘for exercising the right to freedom of expression and information . . . , including respect for freedom and pluralism of the media,’ and for revealing a ‘misconduct, wrongdoing or illegal activity, provided that the respondent acted for the purpose of protecting the general public interest.’" }, { "id": 22388, "title": "Will the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU enact a universal basic income before 2030?", "short_title": "Universal Basic Income by 2030", "url_title": "Universal Basic Income by 2030", "slug": "universal-basic-income-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-12T22:04:16.458892Z", "published_at": "2024-05-09T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T18:14:59.491907Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-09T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-09T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22388, "title": "Will the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU enact a universal basic income before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-04-12T22:04:16.458892Z", "open_time": "2024-05-09T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-12T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-12T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity – and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed “no job is needed” due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for “personal satisfaction”. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> “Even if AI takes your job away, you don’t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,” he says. “What happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.”\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth – propelled, at least in part, by automation – fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. “Why,” asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, “should only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?”\n> \n> —[The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a universal basic income (UBI) is enacted in the entirety of any of the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU.\n\nThe method of enactment is irrelevant so long as it applies to the entirety of the country. There may be eligibility criteria or exceptions, such as excluding those who already have high incomes. It will be considered to apply to the entirety of the country if nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive 1,000 US dollars per month with no additional requirements (such as work requirements) and no expiration of the benefits.", "fine_print": "The $1,000 per month UBI specified will not be adjusted for inflation, only converted to USD at the time of enactment.\n\nPlease note that this question resolves upon enactment of a UBI. Therefore, any subsequent repeals or changes to the UBI before implementation are not relevant for purposes of this question.\n\nFor purposes of this question, \"enacted\" is defined as signed into law, regardless of when funds begin to be disbursed.", "post_id": 22388, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762884889.152733, "end_time": 1763677938.171535, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762884889.152733, "end_time": 1763677938.171535, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.11357016686057547 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.18522762089176412, 1.0130889314987643, 1.4259441470086591, 1.8571584718341576, 0.4470252424938884, 2.609664981190794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2530382861298572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.0, 0.19976240866306647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09622124116773499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7130527459887679, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5975016895580821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289296.969244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289296.969244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9901093833686339, 0.009890616631366127 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity – and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed “no job is needed” due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for “personal satisfaction”. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> “Even if AI takes your job away, you don’t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,” he says. “What happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.”\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth – propelled, at least in part, by automation – fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. “Why,” asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, “should only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?”\n> \n> —[The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)" }, { "id": 22385, "title": "Will SpaceX's fourth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers before May 20, 2024?", "short_title": "Starship IFT4 Reaches 200 km Before May 20?", "url_title": "Starship IFT4 Reaches 200 km Before May 20?", "slug": "starship-ift4-reaches-200-km-before-may-20", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-12T19:52:34.541116Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.392797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 394, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22385, "title": "Will SpaceX's fourth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers before May 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-12T19:52:34.541116Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starship-explosion-spread-particulate-matter-for-miles.html) and the launch produced significant debris and particulate matter that led to concerns of the potential impact on the surrounding environment and community.\n\nFollowing a mishap investigation, a safety review, and an environmental review by the [Federal Aviation Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Administration) (FAA), the second integrated flight took place on [November 18, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_integrated_flight_test_2). The third integrated flight test [took place on March 14, 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20916/date-of-3rd-starship-integrated-flight-test/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 20, 2024, the fourth Starship integrated flight test occurs and Starship reaches an altitude of at least 200 kilometers (approximately 124 miles) intact.", "fine_print": "* An integrated flight test requires the Starship spacecraft to be stacked on top of the [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) with both launched together.\n* The question will resolve according to information published by SpaceX. In the event the altitude achieved is near 200 km but it is not clear whether 200 km was reached, Metaculus may wait for confirmation of the final altitude achieved from SpaceX or other credible sources to resolve the question. If on May 21 Metaculus determines that there is not sufficient evidence available to definitely say whether Starship reached an altitude of 200 km the question will be **annulled**. A statement from SpaceX saying that Starship reached an altitude of \"approximately 200 kilometers\" or \"~200 kilometers\" or similar will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**, so long as the estimated altitude is 200 kilometers or more.", "post_id": 22385, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716212814.954968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 394, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716212814.954968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 394, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00747881984473454 ], "histogram": [ [ 28.63654196003344, 7.388327738184412, 0.9973221082383832, 0.40024663198813615, 0.5164770050016458, 0.011276797178216655, 0.004939278986635289, 0.0499299780079933, 0.0012830345264337915, 0.003564388253533441, 0.02169397343108252, 0.0008398494515997624, 0.002239044298949855, 0.006945768136708946, 0.007281046961833624, 0.002975582679162133, 0.0, 0.000564191759902333, 0.000479446796718508, 0.0002551659759430866, 0.00261399209900618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.160410240185844e-05, 0.0, 0.0003029044596666671, 0.0003740307673925849, 0.02728765144704989, 0.0, 0.0013099405425580353, 0.0011891365859823728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002051813061033094, 5.192540438233903e-06, 6.125030823236308e-05, 2.7752400430472832e-08, 0.0032906513615998615, 1.5633297709741787e-06, 0.0, 0.0001575963148480241, 7.753673904440987e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018782393090586354, 0.0, 0.0006894418841001206, 0.0, 0.0019910657040005746, 0.0, 0.0, 5.660573220770399e-08, 2.6935803042401455e-05, 0.0004949509286836119, 0.0002327606672755871, 0.0004237894954544553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012115241377056877, 2.8414763064864265e-05, 0.0001718148088763109, 0.00027842804957275085, 7.487425820024562e-07, 3.450904182976967e-06, 0.0, 7.815304824007999e-05, 0.0, 6.754990968339072e-05, 0.0001401671957877704, 9.927013687870381e-05, 2.6276169077378094e-06, 0.0003839956429060508, 1.1521684273531805e-07, 0.00024931302766768686, 0.0001280272299665201, 0.0, 2.2902102225723565e-05, 0.0001309465770598038, 0.0023104139672349127, 1.667462645067997e-07, 0.0, 3.9175034675964634e-07, 0.0, 2.4963208549199487e-05, 9.45456286611273e-05, 7.142603292455436e-06, 0.00011402376948946786, 0.0, 9.134802184355098e-05, 0.0, 0.00014346302215829544, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9626218328574557e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10222879095232523 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 50.166786133867305, "coverage": 0.992413197564456, "baseline_score": 55.706861043019096, "spot_peer_score": 0.46667184605296175, "peer_archived_score": 50.166786133867305, "baseline_archived_score": 55.706861043019096, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.46667184605296175 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716212815.03386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 394, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716212815.03386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 394, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1393, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starship-explosion-spread-particulate-matter-for-miles.html) and the launch produced significant debris and particulate matter that led to concerns of the potential impact on the surrounding environment and community.\n\nFollowing a mishap investigation, a safety review, and an environmental review by the [Federal Aviation Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Administration) (FAA), the second integrated flight took place on [November 18, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_integrated_flight_test_2). The third integrated flight test [took place on March 14, 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20916/date-of-3rd-starship-integrated-flight-test/)." }, { "id": 22383, "title": "Will the Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes domestic opening box office set a new franchise record?", "short_title": "New Planet of the Apes Box Office Record?", "url_title": "New Planet of the Apes Box Office Record?", "slug": "new-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-record", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-12T18:46:47.886281Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.347643Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-14T02:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-14T02:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 481, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22383, "title": "Will the Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes domestic opening box office set a new franchise record?", "created_at": "2024-04-12T18:46:47.886281Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-09T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-09T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-14T02:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-14T02:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-14T02:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-09T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-09T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The *[Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_the_Planet_of_the_Apes)* is an upcoming movie scheduled to be released on May 10, 2024. The movie will be the fourth installment of the [rebooted *Planet of the Apes* series](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_of_the_Apes#Reboot_film_series). The original source material was a 1963 French novel and a 1968 *Planet of the Apes* film. There has been nearly a seven year gap since the 2017 release of the third installment in the rebooted film series.\n\nThe most successful of the rebooted series in terms of the opening weekend domestic box office was the second in the series, *Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*, exceeding the opening of [all other *Planet of the Apes* movies](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchise/fr2890370821/?sort=releaseDate&ref_=bo_fr__resort#table), including the original movie (though only without adjusting for inflation).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office weekend opening of the *Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes* movie sets a new franchise record, exceeding the [$72,611,427 opening of *Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1649182209/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs). Resolution will be determined according to the figure reported by [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11389872/?ref_=bo_se_r_1).", "fine_print": "* If the release of the movie is delayed from its scheduled May 10 date, or if Box Office Mojo does not publish the required data before May 21, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.\n* Note that box office figures are reported without adjustments for inflation.\n* The question will assess whether the box office opening exceeds $72,611,427, regardless of whether Box Office Mojo updates the figure for *Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*.", "post_id": 22383, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715290264.441374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715290264.441374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.10867715262417474 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.864363147965706, 10.47834484420516, 3.2966903870663975, 5.161125507275306, 1.621712389452018, 2.510109361874298, 1.8394690851670017, 1.5311233089644531, 0.7687436480201132, 0.4302677212949848, 1.4287349865368904, 0.29719668085754386, 0.05189632597103862, 0.10339627950646324, 0.03472741712968232, 0.464864099523209, 0.16054758854978932, 0.05729027246134969, 1.2790388903711165, 7.055668227264288e-09, 1.2569894467655351, 0.16322724286851437, 0.07291183673762054, 0.00234093622594115, 9.332763732920251e-08, 0.005760443119166632, 2.2696667900800006e-07, 0.02543585254920073, 0.0017585688900748327, 0.0, 0.016030510544276837, 0.0, 0.2293720130560999, 0.2740738951429103, 0.29540823782581566, 0.11642894621256673, 1.0217529947099288e-05, 0.44584664154404535, 0.004623246263240489, 0.0, 0.01895186234552884, 0.08295361615004301, 4.965837373645166e-07, 0.0, 3.772779056034063e-07, 2.6145826844636098e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.474852653782195e-07, 0.594508292702359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03674415221948174, 0.0, 6.225551167684917e-05, 0.0006508751733581878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22183817202239547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00911326476949372, 0.0, 0.002572353769997584, 0.00034655391392588873, 1.6881013655532171e-09, 7.322024871424524e-05, 0.0, 0.40343267143819544, 0.0, 0.029012272267359362, 7.820378127755066e-08, 0.0, 0.0010434810140085668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07491222023447121, 0.04671436272481488, 0.009337519349733876, 0.0006423373177853492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024112635675590366, 0.0, 0.00015992489787827396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009656773104947801, 1.5324946817202467 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 24.405169289738165, "coverage": 0.9999672271094767, "baseline_score": 86.62353445516585, "spot_peer_score": 27.14704884846941, "peer_archived_score": 24.405169289738165, "baseline_archived_score": 86.62353445516585, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.14704884846941 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715290264.527164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715290264.527164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9759922233410467, 0.02400777665895324 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 881, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The *[Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_the_Planet_of_the_Apes)* is an upcoming movie scheduled to be released on May 10, 2024. The movie will be the fourth installment of the [rebooted *Planet of the Apes* series](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_of_the_Apes#Reboot_film_series). The original source material was a 1963 French novel and a 1968 *Planet of the Apes* film. There has been nearly a seven year gap since the 2017 release of the third installment in the rebooted film series.\n\nThe most successful of the rebooted series in terms of the opening weekend domestic box office was the second in the series, *Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*, exceeding the opening of [all other *Planet of the Apes* movies](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchise/fr2890370821/?sort=releaseDate&ref_=bo_fr__resort#table), including the original movie (though only without adjusting for inflation)." }, { "id": 22382, "title": "Will Joe Biden issue his 11th veto before May 17, 2024?", "short_title": "Biden's 11th Veto Before May 17, 2024?", "url_title": "Biden's 11th Veto Before May 17, 2024?", "slug": "bidens-11th-veto-before-may-17-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-12T18:44:56.589259Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.401830Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-03T17:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-03T17:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 326, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22382, "title": "Will Joe Biden issue his 11th veto before May 17, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-12T18:44:56.589259Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-14T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-14T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-03T17:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-03T17:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-16T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-03T17:27:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 20, 2023, Joe Biden [issued his first veto](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/03/20/message-to-the-house-of-representatives-presidents-veto-of-h-j-res-30/), returning [House Joint Resolution 30](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/118/hjres30) (H. J. Res. 30) to the House of Representatives.\n\nSince then, as of March 27, 2024, Biden has issued nine more vetoes for a total of 10. A full tally of presidential vetoes is [available at the website of the US Senate](https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 17, 2024, Joe Biden issues an additional veto (his 11th). 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Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applications. For those studying or seeking programming-related employment it is essential to understand which PLs are currently relevant to increase their chances of finding a job.\n\nThe question itself is tricky. How can we measure the popularity of a PL? One way is to measure the percentage of PLs used in [GitHub projects](https://octoverse.github.com/2022/top-programming-languages). However, not every company uses GitHub repositories; there are alternatives such as GitLab, GitFlic, etc. Additionally, some companies use their local servers to store their projects, making it challenging to gather such information.\n\nAnother method of measuring PLs' popularity is by calculating ratings based on the hits from popular search engines, similar to what the [TIOBE index](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/programminglanguages_definition/) does. This approach is more suitable and can provide us with more representative and extensive data because most languages are continually evolving. Even experienced programmers need to stay updated with newly introduced changes.\n\nAs of March 5, 2024, Python is considered the most popular language according to the TIOBE Index. Python is a high-level, general-purpose programming language. Its design philosophy emphasizes code readability through significant indentation. Python is dynamically typed and garbage-collected. It supports multiple programming paradigms, including structured (particularly procedural), object-oriented, and functional programming. Python is widely used in data science, machine learning, web development, etc.\n\nWhile popularity alone is not the sole factor for those choosing their future study area, understanding trends can be helpful. Many \"younger\" languages like Rust, Go, Swift, and others are gaining popularity and may potentially dominate in the near future.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on December 31, 2030, Python occupies first place of the [TIOBE Index rankings](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/). If Python is not in first place on that date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If, before the resolution date, the TIOBE Index ceases to be published, has its rankings discontinued, or changes its methodology so substantially that Metaculus Admins deem it inappropriate to continue as a resolution source for this question, then this question will be Annulled.\n\nIn the event the TIOBE Index webpage is temporarily unavailable on December 31, 2030 and is unavailable the entire day, the question will be resolved using Python's last available ranking prior to that date.", "post_id": 22377, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761421439.460396, "end_time": 1763775812.402801, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761421439.460396, "end_time": 1763775812.402801, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6958591746074191 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 1.3874400057406846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.889224076089861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9772732999593081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.960510632091283, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25629858007214823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289225.886788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289225.886788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3869296565045214, 0.6130703434954786 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are plenty of programming languages (PLs) being used across various fields of business, science, and more. Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applications. For those studying or seeking programming-related employment it is essential to understand which PLs are currently relevant to increase their chances of finding a job.\n\nThe question itself is tricky. How can we measure the popularity of a PL? One way is to measure the percentage of PLs used in [GitHub projects](https://octoverse.github.com/2022/top-programming-languages). However, not every company uses GitHub repositories; there are alternatives such as GitLab, GitFlic, etc. Additionally, some companies use their local servers to store their projects, making it challenging to gather such information.\n\nAnother method of measuring PLs' popularity is by calculating ratings based on the hits from popular search engines, similar to what the [TIOBE index](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/programminglanguages_definition/) does. This approach is more suitable and can provide us with more representative and extensive data because most languages are continually evolving. Even experienced programmers need to stay updated with newly introduced changes.\n\nAs of March 5, 2024, Python is considered the most popular language according to the TIOBE Index. Python is a high-level, general-purpose programming language. Its design philosophy emphasizes code readability through significant indentation. Python is dynamically typed and garbage-collected. It supports multiple programming paradigms, including structured (particularly procedural), object-oriented, and functional programming. Python is widely used in data science, machine learning, web development, etc.\n\nWhile popularity alone is not the sole factor for those choosing their future study area, understanding trends can be helpful. Many \"younger\" languages like Rust, Go, Swift, and others are gaining popularity and may potentially dominate in the near future." }, { "id": 22310, "title": "Will President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026?", "short_title": "Will Lula be reelected in 2026?", "url_title": "Will Lula be reelected in 2026?", "slug": "will-lula-be-reelected-in-2026", "author_id": 134204, "author_username": "viniciusmjusto", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T23:19:03.831566Z", "published_at": "2024-04-13T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T19:04:24.507071Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-13T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-29T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-13T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22310, "title": "Will President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T23:19:03.831566Z", "open_time": "2024-04-13T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-16T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-16T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-29T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lula has been elected thrice for the presidency in Brazil, in 2002, 2006, and 2022. All three times he led the first round with over 40% of votes, winning then in the second round with 60% of votes the first two times, and with 51% in 2022. Current election law requires a candidate to get more than 50% of valid votes in either the first round or the runoff to be elected.\n\nLula's party (PT - Workers' Party) has won every presidential election held this century with the exception of 2018, when Lula was imprisoned for corruption charges and was unable to run. His protege and current Finance Minister, Fernando Haddad, lost to Jair Bolsonaro, who then went on to lose to Lula in 2022, becoming the first incumbent president to lose reelection in Brazil (out of four presidents who attempted and five who were eligible). Bolsonaro himself is currently unable to run until 2030 due to election interference charges.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves YES if Lula is declared the winner of Brazil's Presidential Election of 2026 by the Superior Electoral Court.", "fine_print": "If the voting method or electoral authority changes, that does not affect this question. Closing and resolution dates might be extended if the election is postponed by a short, definite period, like the 2020 municipal elections were due to COVID.\n\nIf, by Republic Day on November 15, 2026, the election has not happened and is not clearly scheduled to happen, this question will be *Annulled*.\n\nEven though the question title says \"re-elected\", this question will not be affected if Lula ceases to be President before the 2026 election and then goes on to win it.", "post_id": 22310, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761591853.808021, "end_time": 1764183279.411, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761591853.808021, "end_time": 1764183279.411, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.49504239904050185 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7859327912707825, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289848.591845, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289848.591845, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6557112039145853, 0.34428879608541474 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 200, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lula has been elected thrice for the presidency in Brazil, in 2002, 2006, and 2022. All three times he led the first round with over 40% of votes, winning then in the second round with 60% of votes the first two times, and with 51% in 2022. Current election law requires a candidate to get more than 50% of valid votes in either the first round or the runoff to be elected.\n\nLula's party (PT - Workers' Party) has won every presidential election held this century with the exception of 2018, when Lula was imprisoned for corruption charges and was unable to run. His protege and current Finance Minister, Fernando Haddad, lost to Jair Bolsonaro, who then went on to lose to Lula in 2022, becoming the first incumbent president to lose reelection in Brazil (out of four presidents who attempted and five who were eligible). Bolsonaro himself is currently unable to run until 2030 due to election interference charges." }, { "id": 22308, "title": "Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before May 16, 2024?", "short_title": "Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Before May 16, 2024?", "url_title": "Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Before May 16, 2024?", "slug": "israel-hamas-ceasefire-before-may-16-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T21:26:16.643211Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.319317Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T15:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T15:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 689, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22308, "title": "Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before May 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T21:26:16.643211Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T15:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T15:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-16T15:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the beginning of the [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#), [one temporary ceasefire has been reached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_ceasefire). The ceasefire began on November 24, 2023, and was scheduled to last for four days, but was extended for two days and again for an additional day. During the ceasefire a number of Israeli hostages held by Hamas were exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.\n\nIn 2024 the two sides have held negotiations for another ceasefire, but have [so far been unable to reach an agreement](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-hamas-rejects-latest-cease-fire-proposal-israel-108495723).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 16, 2024, it is officially reported that Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement for a ceasefire.", "fine_print": "* Temporary ceasefires count, as do humanitarian pauses, so long as they extend to the entire conflict. For example, a humanitarian pause in certain regions or corridors would not be sufficient.\n* The ceasefire does not actually need to begin, so long as there are credible reports that a ceasefire agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas.\n* For the purposes of this question, official reporting will be public confirmation by both Israel and Hamas. Anonymous or unsourced reports will not be sufficient. Reports of an informal or \"[tentative agreement](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-hamas-reach-tentative-deal-pause-conflict-free-dozens-hostages-wapo-2023-11-19/)\" will not be sufficient, the agreement must be confirmed.\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of initial reporting is in doubt, using reports published before May 16, 2024. If the available reporting published before May 16 remains of dubious credibility, is conflicting, or is unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 22308, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715809994.975925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 689, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715809994.975925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 689, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.016988289922325372 ], "histogram": [ [ 19.473541447042102, 25.922442725620673, 2.216607817514232, 1.2991035490132632, 0.020887250311855645, 0.7341785383595789, 0.16179236524843565, 0.00700549845628325, 0.16271652873992634, 0.015002293995188593, 0.13671906987305776, 0.03189540030054366, 0.037723045376198173, 0.04156886667181896, 0.054340436815436474, 0.04636712090445535, 0.040544031548198, 0.0, 0.0021416299680724186, 3.777995385245653e-07, 0.08267446640208449, 0.0, 0.035089530333992924, 3.222281627959876e-05, 0.0001233472287715532, 0.01057509097727683, 3.5894904695979144e-06, 6.976185183901642e-05, 0.00022133388831908893, 0.0, 0.12916996790687615, 0.0, 1.180974242349673e-07, 1.24485491211389e-09, 2.7281728883469868e-08, 3.569447016570619e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011024964776076313, 1.3443486918269073e-08, 1.6692145464117736e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.614642049518639e-11, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018277575780501428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.8076897372631275e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7805321999549247e-07, 0.002082992750703228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002151197556141699, 0.02141951204847392, 0.00024060917299674247, 5.128542531526514e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0828825637923795e-11, 5.792352254342471e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3571789378450343e-09, 0.011226176768025002, 0.0, 1.6071402222952447e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 3.653408650380139e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0041355396922513185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003003829643418465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2784621867518717 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.05690629524718, "coverage": 0.9999976085672562, "baseline_score": 93.22750724538336, "spot_peer_score": 12.621834299540247, "peer_archived_score": 15.05690629524718, "baseline_archived_score": 93.22750724538336, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.621834299540247 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715809995.169163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 689, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715809995.169163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 689, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2260, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the beginning of the [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#), [one temporary ceasefire has been reached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_ceasefire). The ceasefire began on November 24, 2023, and was scheduled to last for four days, but was extended for two days and again for an additional day. During the ceasefire a number of Israeli hostages held by Hamas were exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.\n\nIn 2024 the two sides have held negotiations for another ceasefire, but have [so far been unable to reach an agreement](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-hamas-rejects-latest-cease-fire-proposal-israel-108495723)." }, { "id": 22305, "title": "Will OpenAI release a new ChatGPT generation before May 16, 2024?", "short_title": "New ChatGPT Generation Before May 16, 2024?", "url_title": "New ChatGPT Generation Before May 16, 2024?", "slug": "new-chatgpt-generation-before-may-16-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T21:11:24.251145Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.871957Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-13T21:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-13T21:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 670, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22305, "title": "Will OpenAI release a new ChatGPT generation before May 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T21:11:24.251145Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-13T21:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-13T21:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-13T21:42:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT), the large language model chatbot released by OpenAI, first launched to the public in November of 2022 using GPT-3.5. Since then the [GPT-4 model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-4), launched in March of 2023, has been added as one of the available models for subscribers. In March of 2024 [rumors circulated](https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/chatgpt-could-get-a-gpt-5-upgrade-as-soon-as-this-summer-heres-what-we-know-so-far) that the launch of the next GPT generation for ChatGPT, whether GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, could happen soon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 16, 2024, OpenAI releases a new ChatGPT generation, such as ChatGPT 4.5 or ChatGPT 5.", "fine_print": "* To count as a new generation the model must not include the \"GPT 4\" designation or otherwise be a GPT 4 variant. For example \"GPT 4 Turbo\" is a variant of GPT 4. A new model dubbed GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 would count. The model choices available at chat.openai.com will be the primary determinant of whether a model is a new generation (currently subscribers can select from GPT-3.5 or GPT-4).\n* To count as released the model must be available at the web interface for the public to use, even if just limited to subscribers or a subset of subscribers. A closed beta would count, so long as OpenAI publicly announces a closed beta or similar and the closed beta is open to some members of the public who are not employed by OpenAI or contracted by OpenAI.", "post_id": 22305, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715634644.964041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 670, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715634644.964041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 670, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0978924464396177 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.729374960983277, 23.33297113071881, 2.9582413819085094, 1.4769275806067266, 0.2521270680511112, 1.9579260118291666, 0.6448128954040734, 0.008985454293109938, 0.27721941105613024, 0.08878436585454513, 0.46995683167337554, 0.001915224752676442, 0.04924962476306434, 0.9138963125335084, 9.195064928164663e-05, 0.41503310577288743, 0.0, 0.0002809165739677984, 0.0006791132937233784, 0.000769738858766458, 0.7721524826748637, 1.4142116086235267e-08, 4.639195531930322e-05, 0.001475596974425139, 2.72971906099626e-05, 0.525198854853783, 0.00038718736540249314, 0.0, 0.8795216261353486, 0.0, 0.0035492158713289327, 0.0019753431025737117, 0.0, 0.0010180921196937106, 0.0, 0.04549102952883958, 0.0, 1.5856021302207792e-05, 1.85282370971991e-09, 7.847884296004132e-05, 7.892374230999442e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001345595752392524, 1.7280595427306546e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.632870994215327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.982574264453053e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021114482839080916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014558141826284893, 0.0021376218192213055, 0.0, 5.918752416432939e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022775938478309348, 0.00012546112995290542, 0.0, 6.447558847750315e-08, 0.0, 0.09113233131666035, 5.788464108470929e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042063168733755395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.071423649825657e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5933986616013235e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.689110334896757 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715634645.09861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 670, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715634645.09861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 670, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9822377922953592, 0.017762207704640758 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1636, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT), the large language model chatbot released by OpenAI, first launched to the public in November of 2022 using GPT-3.5. Since then the [GPT-4 model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-4), launched in March of 2023, has been added as one of the available models for subscribers. In March of 2024 [rumors circulated](https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/chatgpt-could-get-a-gpt-5-upgrade-as-soon-as-this-summer-heres-what-we-know-so-far) that the launch of the next GPT generation for ChatGPT, whether GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, could happen soon." } ] }
