Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3080
{ "count": 5977, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3100", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3060", "results": [ { "id": 18607, "title": "Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?", "short_title": "Chevron Bargaining Agreement by September 25?", "url_title": "Chevron Bargaining Agreement by September 25?", "slug": "chevron-bargaining-agreement-by-september-25", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-29T22:00:31.412167Z", "published_at": "2023-08-31T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.531261Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-31T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-21T23:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-21T23:20:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-31T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18607, "title": "Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-29T22:00:31.412167Z", "open_time": "2023-08-31T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-05T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-05T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-21T23:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-21T23:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-21T23:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 28, 2023, [Offshore Alliance](https://offshorealliance.org.au/) — an Australian workers union — [announced](https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02DaBqp3BcYqVEijr9oDG42VipbFACwhE16F8KLThtDpAJKmwrLhhabcesJDARmJ1ol&id=100063786371409) that they had notified the oil company [Chevron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevron_Corporation) that the union would be commencing industrial actions [beginning on September 7, 2023](https://maritime-executive.com/article/union-members-authorize-september-strike-at-chevron-australia-s-lng-ops). Under Australia's [Fair Work Act](https://www.fwc.gov.au/issues-we-help/industrial-action/types-industrial-action) employees may take protected [industrial actions](https://www.fairwork.gov.au/tools-and-resources/fact-sheets/rights-and-obligations/industrial-action), such as strikes, go-slows, or protests, when certain conditions are met.\n\nOffshore Alliance announced that the industrial actions would affect three of Chevron's sites in western Australia: Gorgon, Wheatstone downstream, and Wheatstone platform facilities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 25, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Chevron and Offshore Alliance have reached an agreement which either avoids the commencement of industrial actions currently scheduled for September 7th or ends the industrial actions after they have begun.", "fine_print": "* If Chevron and Offshore Alliance reach an agreement to delay the commencement of industrial actions until after September 25, 2023, for any reason, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* A limited end to industrial actions, such as at one of the three Australian Chevron facilities, does not qualify. Only a broad agreement between Offshore Alliance and Chevron that avoids or ends the industrial actions qualifies.\n* An announced agreement that ends or avoids the industrial actions is sufficient to resolve as **Yes**, a full agreement, such as an Enterprise Bargaining Agreement, need not be agreed to or ratified.\n* Both parties signing a contract that ends the industrial actions as described above, even one mandated by the government or other intermediator, will result in the question resolving as **Yes**.", "post_id": 18607, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695390696.968896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695390696.968896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9013464090384026 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.09558381558844703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015220610711278141, 0.0, 0.07222825528385914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01392500882650775, 0.023560770382044207, 0.0, 0.017045521296473166, 0.0, 0.05718011575147788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004599875297244844, 0.0557348588410026, 0.0663340558700189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009362710949132512, 0.0, 0.8030425853219569, 0.09755516300194217, 0.0, 0.09600387904907261, 0.0, 0.08807320997120857, 0.02889739734118714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03867734993865754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006220517787109449, 0.005367575538696657, 0.0, 0.007165678900495897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0039108374539705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001821789957966981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005292742945254508, 0.0, 0.10179729265546388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008210459748030398, 0.0011005415108165126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002255205898776533, 0.0, 0.11755141015135048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6570695930046578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1371657512903841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09258855488263372, 0.22925142923916692, 0.6177039404822752, 0.1270387594062929, 1.2255201943198553, 10.667832685789373 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.2499846192306228, "coverage": 0.8783543929882117, "baseline_score": -23.591014615549014, "spot_peer_score": 30.584692029138445, "peer_archived_score": 3.2499846192306228, "baseline_archived_score": -23.591014615549014, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.584692029138445 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695328179.917061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695328179.917061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.31761180573994596, 0.682388194260054 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 510, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 28, 2023, [Offshore Alliance](https://offshorealliance.org.au/) — an Australian workers union — [announced](https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid02DaBqp3BcYqVEijr9oDG42VipbFACwhE16F8KLThtDpAJKmwrLhhabcesJDARmJ1ol&id=100063786371409) that they had notified the oil company [Chevron](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevron_Corporation) that the union would be commencing industrial actions [beginning on September 7, 2023](https://maritime-executive.com/article/union-members-authorize-september-strike-at-chevron-australia-s-lng-ops). Under Australia's [Fair Work Act](https://www.fwc.gov.au/issues-we-help/industrial-action/types-industrial-action) employees may take protected [industrial actions](https://www.fairwork.gov.au/tools-and-resources/fact-sheets/rights-and-obligations/industrial-action), such as strikes, go-slows, or protests, when certain conditions are met.\n\nOffshore Alliance announced that the industrial actions would affect three of Chevron's sites in western Australia: Gorgon, Wheatstone downstream, and Wheatstone platform facilities." }, { "id": 18606, "title": "Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?", "short_title": "Trump Removed or Blocked From General Ballot", "url_title": "Trump Removed or Blocked From General Ballot", "slug": "trump-removed-or-blocked-from-general-ballot", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [ { "id": 144313, "username": "tburr" }, { "id": 153194, "username": "marcus" } ], "created_at": "2023-08-29T21:26:52.217855Z", "published_at": "2023-08-31T19:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.878102Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-31T19:44:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T17:43:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-31T19:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18606, "title": "Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?", "created_at": "2023-08-29T21:26:52.217855Z", "open_time": "2023-08-31T19:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-01T00:45:47.066578Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-01T00:45:47.066578Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T17:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T17:44:15.727347Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the \"Disqualification Clause\" or Section 3, which may disqualify individuals from holding federal or state office if they have \"engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S.], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.\" Given the events surrounding the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, this section has become a subject of considerable debate with respect to former President Donald Trump's eligibility to run for federal office again.\n\nIn New Hampshire, Bryant \"Corky\" Messner, an attorney who ran for U.S. Senate in 2020 with Trump's endorsement, has [expressed intentions to file a legal challenge](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/08/29/trump-14th-amendment-new-hampshire-gop-feuds-as-states-grapple-with-disqualifying-trump-from-ballot/?sh=70038b512e9a) questioning Trump's 2024 candidacy under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The Republican Secretary of State of New Hampshire, David Scanlan, while not actively seeking to remove any candidates, has stated that he will seek legal advice on the issue. Additionally, Michigan’s Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has indicated that she will seek a legal opinion on this matter. Voters have also filed lawsuits in Florida and Michigan on the issue. Legal battles are widely expected, and these disputes might reach the U.S. Supreme Court.\n\nThis question focuses on whether these and similar ongoing discussions and legal challenges will result in Donald Trump being removed from the general election ballot of any state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment by November 5, 2024, the date of the presidential election.\n\n**Note: This question focuses on removal from a general election ballot. Another question focuses on Trump's removal from a [primary ballot](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18716/trump-removed-or-blocked-from-primary-ballot/).**", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, *on* November 5, 2024:\n\nDonald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the *general election* ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.\n\nThe removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, legal documentation, or credible media reports. Speculative reports, opinion pieces, or unofficial announcements will not suffice for resolution.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if these conditions are not met on November 5, 2024.\n\nNote: The question does not account for legal battles, appeals, or subsequent reversals that might occur *after* the mentioned date. It strictly pertains to whether Donald Trump has been removed from any state's general election ballot for a federal office under the specified grounds as of November 5, 2024. If Trump is removed or blocked from a general election ballot and then reinstated, such that as of November 5th he is not removed or blocked from any general election ballot, the question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18606, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730736407.199678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730736407.199678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 146, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.012070955871510984 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.237038928868945, 7.178428843450608, 0.8886522361760868, 0.02769782211779881, 0.20076894742499896, 0.17453716475031872, 0.08682061756274201, 0.09168692461600703, 0.09214996930417944, 0.020288659350531552, 0.11385564188488141, 0.0, 0.02826272980935872, 0.003578175663506971, 0.0, 0.04435697325327465, 0.06605592858546377, 0.30902476521815747, 0.012254032337769174, 0.0, 0.05450475422251754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015588045115705885, 0.0036395984740292655, 0.0, 0.0003935095242442667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019682473552636854, 0.0, 0.0009498235798807117, 0.014860655936507523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.549372438616996e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003413825612036075, 0.0, 0.0, 3.196096747709772e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006657720224069577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005771387592995737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016760582186144154 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.2925548946329, "peer_score": 18.83638559191238, "coverage": 0.999977260297521, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999977260297521, "spot_peer_score": 19.39490410611687, "baseline_archived_score": 93.2925548946329, "peer_archived_score": 18.83638559191238, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.39490410611687 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289459.724625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289459.724625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 363, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution has a section known as the \"Disqualification Clause\" or Section 3, which may disqualify individuals from holding federal or state office if they have \"engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S.], or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.\" Given the events surrounding the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, this section has become a subject of considerable debate with respect to former President Donald Trump's eligibility to run for federal office again.\n\nIn New Hampshire, Bryant \"Corky\" Messner, an attorney who ran for U.S. Senate in 2020 with Trump's endorsement, has [expressed intentions to file a legal challenge](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2023/08/29/trump-14th-amendment-new-hampshire-gop-feuds-as-states-grapple-with-disqualifying-trump-from-ballot/?sh=70038b512e9a) questioning Trump's 2024 candidacy under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The Republican Secretary of State of New Hampshire, David Scanlan, while not actively seeking to remove any candidates, has stated that he will seek legal advice on the issue. Additionally, Michigan’s Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has indicated that she will seek a legal opinion on this matter. Voters have also filed lawsuits in Florida and Michigan on the issue. Legal battles are widely expected, and these disputes might reach the U.S. Supreme Court.\n\nThis question focuses on whether these and similar ongoing discussions and legal challenges will result in Donald Trump being removed from the general election ballot of any state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment by November 5, 2024, the date of the presidential election.\n\n**Note: This question focuses on removal from a general election ballot. Another question focuses on Trump's removal from a [primary ballot](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18716/trump-removed-or-blocked-from-primary-ballot/).**" }, { "id": 18601, "title": "Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?", "short_title": "Retail CBDC in the USA Before 2031?", "url_title": "Retail CBDC in the USA Before 2031?", "slug": "retail-cbdc-in-the-usa-before-2031", "author_id": 151696, "author_username": "foresightbureau", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-29T16:54:59.646795Z", "published_at": "2023-09-01T01:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.573502Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-01T01:50:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-01T01:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18601, "title": "Will a retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) go live in the USA and become available for public use before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-29T16:54:59.646795Z", "open_time": "2023-09-01T01:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-03T01:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-03T01:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A CBDC is a digital currency issued by a country's central bank. They are similar to cash, but they exist only in digital form. CBDCs can be used for both retail and wholesale payments. Retail CBDCs are designed for use by individuals and businesses. They can be used to make payments for goods and services, just like cash. Whereas wholesale CBDCs are designed for use by financial institutions to settle payments between banks and other financial institutions.\n\nThe Federal Reserve’s FedNow system went live on July 20th, 2023 to replace the Fedwire system, and is to all intents and purposes a wholesale CBDC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230720a.htm\n\nCBDCs offer a number of potential benefits, such as faster and cheaper payments compared to traditional payment methods, such as checks and wire transfers. They also claim to increase financial inclusion by making it easier for people to access and use digital money.\nCBDCs can also reduce risk of fraud by providing a more secure and transparent way to make payments.\n\nHowever, there are also some challenges associated with CBDCs, such as privacy concerns as all transactions are recorded on a central ledger. This raises all kinds of ethical, and security issues. That’s because the technology behind CBDCs will enable every transaction to potentially be monitored and controlled in real-time by the governments and central banks that issue them. \nAs of March 2023, over 90 central banks are exploring the possibility of issuing CBDCs, and a number of them have already launched pilot projects. This suggests that there is a growing consensus among central banks that CBDCs have the potential to improve the efficiency and security of the financial system.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if a statement appears on the Federal Reserve's official website https://www.federalreserve.gov stating that a US retail CBDC (central bank digital currency) aka “digital dollar” has officially gone live and has become available for use by the public before January 1, 2031.", "fine_print": "Here is a definition of a CBDC according to the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/cbdc-faqs.htm", "post_id": 18601, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755438042.884818, "end_time": 1759470442.939207, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.314 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755438042.884818, "end_time": 1759470442.939207, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.314 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.725, 0.275 ], "means": [ 0.31941836170356896 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4932674470803087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.9879055898002704, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289651.142763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289651.142763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.807067183809766, 0.19293281619023397 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A CBDC is a digital currency issued by a country's central bank. They are similar to cash, but they exist only in digital form. CBDCs can be used for both retail and wholesale payments. Retail CBDCs are designed for use by individuals and businesses. They can be used to make payments for goods and services, just like cash. Whereas wholesale CBDCs are designed for use by financial institutions to settle payments between banks and other financial institutions.\n\nThe Federal Reserve’s FedNow system went live on July 20th, 2023 to replace the Fedwire system, and is to all intents and purposes a wholesale CBDC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230720a.htm\n\nCBDCs offer a number of potential benefits, such as faster and cheaper payments compared to traditional payment methods, such as checks and wire transfers. They also claim to increase financial inclusion by making it easier for people to access and use digital money.\nCBDCs can also reduce risk of fraud by providing a more secure and transparent way to make payments.\n\nHowever, there are also some challenges associated with CBDCs, such as privacy concerns as all transactions are recorded on a central ledger. This raises all kinds of ethical, and security issues. That’s because the technology behind CBDCs will enable every transaction to potentially be monitored and controlled in real-time by the governments and central banks that issue them. \nAs of March 2023, over 90 central banks are exploring the possibility of issuing CBDCs, and a number of them have already launched pilot projects. This suggests that there is a growing consensus among central banks that CBDCs have the potential to improve the efficiency and security of the financial system." }, { "id": 18561, "title": "Will a city with a population of over 1 million people publicly credit the use of high-resolution satellite imagery in reducing traffic congestion in a specific area before 2031?", "short_title": "Satellite Imagery Reduces Congestion By 2031?", "url_title": "Satellite Imagery Reduces Congestion By 2031?", "slug": "satellite-imagery-reduces-congestion-by-2031", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-28T14:17:40.513937Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.341696Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18561, "title": "Will a city with a population of over 1 million people publicly credit the use of high-resolution satellite imagery in reducing traffic congestion in a specific area before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-28T14:17:40.513937Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Traffic congestion is a persistent problem in many large cities, affecting quality of life and contributing to environmental degradation. High-resolution satellite imagery and other data analytics tools [offer city planners a new layer of insights](https://ts2.space/en/satellite-imagery-and-the-future-of-smart-cities/) for making more informed decisions. These technological advancements have the potential to be used in various aspects of urban planning, including strategies aimed at reducing traffic congestion. As cities search for innovative solutions, will high-resolution satellite imagery be publicly credited for its role in a successful traffic reduction project before 2031?", "resolution_criteria": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, a city anywhere in the world with a population of over 1 million people credits high-resolution satellite imagery in reducing traffic congestion in one or more areas in the city.\n2. The city must publicly credit high-resolution satellite imagery as a significant tool used in a project to reduce traffic congestion in a specific area. High-resolution satellite imagery need not be the only tool mentioned, but it must be mentioned as playing an important role in the congestion reduction efforts.\n3. The credit must be given in an official capacity, such as in a press release, public announcement, or governmental report.\n4. The project must result in a documented reduction in traffic congestion in the specified area.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18561, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745786138.965405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2261953056 ], "centers": [ 0.443 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745786138.965405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2261953056 ], "centers": [ 0.443 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5569999999999999, 0.443 ], "means": [ 0.40694194130117756 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899439243127377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.3022135829173027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.1668302445981351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.2164335258165257, 1.182941423712962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287412.696987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287412.696987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6266226218417752, 0.37337737815822486 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Traffic congestion is a persistent problem in many large cities, affecting quality of life and contributing to environmental degradation. High-resolution satellite imagery and other data analytics tools [offer city planners a new layer of insights](https://ts2.space/en/satellite-imagery-and-the-future-of-smart-cities/) for making more informed decisions. These technological advancements have the potential to be used in various aspects of urban planning, including strategies aimed at reducing traffic congestion. As cities search for innovative solutions, will high-resolution satellite imagery be publicly credited for its role in a successful traffic reduction project before 2031?" }, { "id": 18560, "title": "Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?", "short_title": "Space-Based Carbon Capture Test by 2031?", "url_title": "Space-Based Carbon Capture Test by 2031?", "slug": "space-based-carbon-capture-test-by-2031", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-28T13:31:24.957326Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:09:32.308188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": 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"spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Space-based carbon capture is a hypothetical concept based on the [method of carbon removal](https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/system-rid-space-station-astronaut-exhalations-inspires-earth-based-co2-removal#:~:text=The%20CO2%20breathed%20by%20astronauts,to%20the%20vacuum%20of%20space) in the International Space Station. The concept involves using specific technologies to capture and store atmospheric carbon dioxide to launch it into space. While the idea is still largely theoretical and presents various technical and ethical challenges, it represents an innovative approach that could add another tool in the fight against climate change.\n\nCurrent carbon capture technologies focus mainly on terrestrial storage, such as injecting captured carbon into geological formations. However, the concept of space-based carbon capture opens new frontiers for consideration. It would require advancements in carbon capture technology, rocket propulsion, and storage solutions, as well as addressing numerous ethical concerns, such as the potential risks associated with launching potentially hazardous materials into space.\n\nGiven the increasing urgency of climate issues and the innovative potential of space-based carbon capture, will a proof-of-concept experiment be successfully completed before 2031?", "resolution_criteria": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture is successfully completed and the results are publicly reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) before January 1, 2031.\n2. The experiment must specifically focus on \"space-based carbon capture,\" which involves capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide to launch it into space.\n3. The experiment must be considered a \"proof-of-concept,\" meaning it demonstrates the basic feasibility of capturing carbon dioxide from the Earth's atmosphere and preparing it for space-based storage or disposal.\n4. \"Successfully completed\" means that the experiment completed its stated goals or objectives, as reported by the team conducting the experiment or as confirmed by peer review or other independent evaluation. The results need not demonstrate the feasibility of the method, negative results are sufficient.", "fine_print": "Metaculus will not conduct an exhaustive search of all relevant research publications and will instead determine resolution based on information available from standard web searches, including searches for journal publications.", "post_id": 18560, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758278531.586068, "end_time": 1763128073.786872, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758278531.586068, "end_time": 1763128073.786872, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.041012555193664486 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.876931883579203, 0.7695514615839745, 1.2376856862039283, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0155314876619403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288103.093224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288103.093224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9831907452440422, 0.016809254755957896 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Space-based carbon capture is a hypothetical concept based on the [method of carbon removal](https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/system-rid-space-station-astronaut-exhalations-inspires-earth-based-co2-removal#:~:text=The%20CO2%20breathed%20by%20astronauts,to%20the%20vacuum%20of%20space) in the International Space Station. The concept involves using specific technologies to capture and store atmospheric carbon dioxide to launch it into space. While the idea is still largely theoretical and presents various technical and ethical challenges, it represents an innovative approach that could add another tool in the fight against climate change.\n\nCurrent carbon capture technologies focus mainly on terrestrial storage, such as injecting captured carbon into geological formations. However, the concept of space-based carbon capture opens new frontiers for consideration. It would require advancements in carbon capture technology, rocket propulsion, and storage solutions, as well as addressing numerous ethical concerns, such as the potential risks associated with launching potentially hazardous materials into space.\n\nGiven the increasing urgency of climate issues and the innovative potential of space-based carbon capture, will a proof-of-concept experiment be successfully completed before 2031?" }, { "id": 18556, "title": "Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?", "short_title": "US productivity growth over 1.8%?", "url_title": "US productivity growth over 1.8%?", "slug": "us-productivity-growth-over-18", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-28T08:53:14.475353Z", "published_at": "2023-10-27T02:39:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.764776Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-27T02:39:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-27T02:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18556, "title": "Long Bets series: Will Private Nonfarm business productivity growth average over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4)?", "created_at": "2023-08-28T08:53:14.475353Z", "open_time": "2023-10-27T02:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-30T02:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-30T02:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is inspired by the linked [Long Bet](https://longbets.org/868/) between Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon.\n\nThe bet concerns US total factor productivity, which is a nice proxy for economic productivity and living standards. \n\n> \"Where does 1.8 percent fit into the historical record? For perspective consider the productivity growth record over five intervals: 3.2 percent per year (1948-72), 1.5 (1973-95), 3.3 (1996-2004), 2.1 (2005-2009), and 1.1 (2010-2019). \" - Robert Gordon\n\nThe question concerns the viability and efficacy of now emerging technologies and current economic trends in influencing total factor productivity growth for the 2020s.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if [Long Bets](https://longbets.org/about/) or the Long Now Foundation declares that private nonfarm business productivity growth has averaged over 1.8 percent per year from the first quarter (Q1) of 2020 to the last quarter of 2029 (Q4), and therefore Erik Brynjolfsson has won the bet with Robert J Gordon.\n\nIt resolves No if Robert J Gordon is declared the winner.\n\nThe question resolves early if either Erik Brynjolfsson or Robert J Gordon concedes the bet.\n\nIf Long Bets or the Long Now Foundation does not declare a winner before January 1, 2031, Metaculus administrators will resolve the question using US Bureau of Labor Statistics when the 2029 Q4 data becomes available. If this source of data is not available, Metaculus will use the closest analogous source of information.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18556, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751164330.233837, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751164330.233837, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.4258173188486766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.39246060801706, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289291.782401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289291.782401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.685070005074043, 0.31492999492595697 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is inspired by the linked [Long Bet](https://longbets.org/868/) between Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon.\n\nThe bet concerns US total factor productivity, which is a nice proxy for economic productivity and living standards. \n\n> \"Where does 1.8 percent fit into the historical record? For perspective consider the productivity growth record over five intervals: 3.2 percent per year (1948-72), 1.5 (1973-95), 3.3 (1996-2004), 2.1 (2005-2009), and 1.1 (2010-2019). \" - Robert Gordon\n\nThe question concerns the viability and efficacy of now emerging technologies and current economic trends in influencing total factor productivity growth for the 2020s." }, { "id": 18555, "title": "Will an East African Federation exist and govern before 2040?", "short_title": "Actual East African Federation by 2040?", "url_title": "Actual East African Federation by 2040?", "slug": "actual-east-african-federation-by-2040", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-27T18:11:09.502589Z", "published_at": "2023-10-06T18:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.397441Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-06T18:46:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-06T18:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18555, "title": "Will an East African Federation exist and govern before 2040?", "created_at": "2023-08-27T18:11:09.502589Z", "open_time": "2023-10-06T18:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-08T18:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-08T18:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question and the background material below are copied from a [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11667/east-african-federation-before-2030/). While that version asks about the ratification of an agreement to form the East African Federation it may be that such an agreement is ratified without a functional East African Federation actually being formed. Or alternatively, an East African Federation could be formed by the merger of two countries and not satisfy the three country requirement of the other question.*\n\n---\n\nThe [East African Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Federation) (Swahili: *Shirikisho la Afrika Mashariki*) is a proposed political union of the seven sovereign states of the East African Community – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda – as a single federated sovereign state. The idea of this Federation has existed since the early 1960s, but has not yet come to fruition for a variety of reasons. In September 2018, [a committee was formed](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ready-for-a-united-states-of-east-africa-the-wheels-are-already-turning-1403564) to begin the process of drafting a regional constitution, and a draft constitution for the confederation was set to be written by the end of 2021 with its implementation by 2023; however, it is likely that this deadline will be [missed](https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/03/east-african-federation-looks-set-for-further-delay/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2040, a treaty constituting the East African Federation has legally come into effect and there is credible reporting that constituent states are taking steps towards making the Federation effective. Specifically, credible reports must be available that any one or more of the following has occurred:\n\n1. The Federation becomes a member of the [United Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations) or [African Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Union).\n2. The Federation officially accedes as a party to any of the following treaties:\n * Geneva Convention\n * Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons\n3. At least two constituent states enact laws, according to their internal legal requirements, proclaiming their dissolution as sovereign states, and these laws come into force.\n4. Common (not diplomatic or official) passports are issued to citizens in the name of the Federation only, without mentioning the constituent State, and these are routinely used for travel.\n5. Embassies of constituent states to each other are closed, redundant embassies in third countries are consolidated, single embassies of one constituent state are converted to Federation embassies, or new Federation embassies opened.\n6. A Federation government passes laws about matters delegated to it by the constituent states according to a constituent treaty, and those laws are actually enforced after coming into force.", "fine_print": "* At least two countries on the continent of Africa who are members of the East African Community (EAC) before joining must join to qualify. The EAC is defined as the organization created by the [Treaty for the Establishment of the East African Community in 1999](https://www.eac.int/eac-history); in case of doubts about succession, its successor shall be any entity whose constituent treaties are the result of amendments to the treaty or any other current constituting EAC instruments. Member countries who join after September of 2023 also qualify. If the newly resulting country or federation chooses to adopt a name other than the \"East African Federation\", this question will still resolve as **Yes** so long as other criteria are met.\n* If the Federation has existed in practice as described, however briefly, and dissolved before January 1, 2040, this still counts as **Yes**.\n* The new sovereign state needs to hold territory belonging in 2023 to at least two different sovereign states, *and* this must not be the result of territory transfer from an existing state to another at the time it happens.", "post_id": 18555, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747002840.822603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747002840.822603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.2091678476157031 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8141639188572266, 0.27120971924598375, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4083779534176923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290193.428911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290193.428911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9386930487602366, 0.061306951239763346 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question and the background material below are copied from a [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11667/east-african-federation-before-2030/). While that version asks about the ratification of an agreement to form the East African Federation it may be that such an agreement is ratified without a functional East African Federation actually being formed. Or alternatively, an East African Federation could be formed by the merger of two countries and not satisfy the three country requirement of the other question.*\n\n---\n\nThe [East African Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Federation) (Swahili: *Shirikisho la Afrika Mashariki*) is a proposed political union of the seven sovereign states of the East African Community – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda – as a single federated sovereign state. The idea of this Federation has existed since the early 1960s, but has not yet come to fruition for a variety of reasons. In September 2018, [a committee was formed](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ready-for-a-united-states-of-east-africa-the-wheels-are-already-turning-1403564) to begin the process of drafting a regional constitution, and a draft constitution for the confederation was set to be written by the end of 2021 with its implementation by 2023; however, it is likely that this deadline will be [missed](https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/03/east-african-federation-looks-set-for-further-delay/)." }, { "id": 18551, "title": "Will space-based technologies facilitate the creation of an effective global system for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade before 2031?", "short_title": "Effective Wildlife Trade Satellite Tracking?", "url_title": "Effective Wildlife Trade Satellite Tracking?", "slug": "effective-wildlife-trade-satellite-tracking", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-26T17:37:08.532502Z", 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"open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Illegal wildlife trade is a major global problem, threatening biodiversity and fueling organized crime. Space-based technologies, such as satellite imaging, could potentially be used to track and mitigate this illegal trade by providing near real-time monitoring of wildlife habitats, migration routes, and poaching activities. However, such a global system would require significant technological, legal, and diplomatic efforts.", "resolution_criteria": "1. The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report the successful establishment of an effective global system, facilitated by space-based technologies, for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade.\n2. To be considered \"effective\" the system must be reported to produce a 5% measurable decrease in illegal wildlife poaching (or if no quantifiable estimate is provided a characterization of the reduction as \"significant\" or otherwise substantial).\n3. The space-based system need not be the sole contributor to the reduction, but their contribution should be identifiable and significant. For example, ground-based cameras that communicate via satellites to track wildlife and poaching activity would qualify.\n4. The use of satellites to produce better estimates that show less poaching does not qualify, satellite facilitated observation has to be directly implemented in enforcement.\n5. If no such system is established, or if it is not reported to be effective before 2031, the question will resolve as **No**.\n6. The onus of this question is on establishing the effectiveness of these technologies in achieving the stated goals, and conflicting reports, or ambiguous or mixed evidence, will not be sufficient.", "fine_print": "Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt.", "post_id": 18551, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719504996.798134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.2410347164 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.293 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719504996.798134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.2410347164 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.293 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7589652836, 0.2410347164 ], "means": [ 0.29693824245027434 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287946.86548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287946.86548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8599085193007816, 0.14009148069921837 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Illegal wildlife trade is a major global problem, threatening biodiversity and fueling organized crime. Space-based technologies, such as satellite imaging, could potentially be used to track and mitigate this illegal trade by providing near real-time monitoring of wildlife habitats, migration routes, and poaching activities. However, such a global system would require significant technological, legal, and diplomatic efforts." }, { "id": 18550, "title": "Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?", "short_title": "Hurricane Track Error Below 30 Miles by 2031?", "url_title": "Hurricane Track Error Below 30 Miles by 2031?", "slug": "hurricane-track-error-below-30-miles-by-2031", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-26T17:32:29.113772Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.535129Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-07-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": 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"2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-07-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The advent of space-based technologies has provided us with an unprecedented ability to monitor Earth's environment from a unique vantage point. This, in turn, has the potential to revolutionize our approach to disaster management, with more effective early warning systems for natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. However, predicting these events with sufficient lead time and accuracy remains a significant challenge.\n\nThe [National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) (NHC) of the US [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration) (NOAA), [assesses](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml) the track error and intensity error for its hurricane and tropical storm predictions. [According too the NHC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify2.shtml), track error is\n\n>Track forecast error is defined as the great-circle distance between a cyclone's forecast position and the best track position at the forecast verification time.\n\nThe [NHC also characterizes](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify8.shtml?) the 48 hour performance measures as follows\n\n>While the NHC produces forecasts for periods extending from 12 through 120 hours, the 48-hour forecast is often important for emergency managers and preparedness actions.\n\n<img src=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/ALtkerrtrd_noTD_sm.jpg\" alt=\"NHC Annual Average Track Errors for Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms and Hurricanes\" />\n*[National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml)*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any year between 2023 and 2030, inclusive, the [National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml) that the annual average track error for 48 hour forecasts of Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes has reached 30.0 nautical miles or less.", "fine_print": "* The numerical data from the [pdf](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/1970-present_OFCL_ATL_annual_trk_errors_noTDs.pdf) will be used if available.\n* This question will resolve when the complete 2030 data is available (along with all previous years), or on July 1, 2032, whichever comes first. In the event all of the data is not available or NHC stops publishing this data Metaculus may select an approximately equivalent source or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 18550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746949418.102177, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1769281626 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746949418.102177, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1769281626 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.474171523747841 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8245534804834481, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287937.195719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287937.195719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6100543059266602, 0.3899456940733398 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The advent of space-based technologies has provided us with an unprecedented ability to monitor Earth's environment from a unique vantage point. This, in turn, has the potential to revolutionize our approach to disaster management, with more effective early warning systems for natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. However, predicting these events with sufficient lead time and accuracy remains a significant challenge.\n\nThe [National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) (NHC) of the US [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration) (NOAA), [assesses](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml) the track error and intensity error for its hurricane and tropical storm predictions. [According too the NHC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify2.shtml), track error is\n\n>Track forecast error is defined as the great-circle distance between a cyclone's forecast position and the best track position at the forecast verification time.\n\nThe [NHC also characterizes](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify8.shtml?) the 48 hour performance measures as follows\n\n>While the NHC produces forecasts for periods extending from 12 through 120 hours, the 48-hour forecast is often important for emergency managers and preparedness actions.\n\n<img src=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/ALtkerrtrd_noTD_sm.jpg\" alt=\"NHC Annual Average Track Errors for Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms and Hurricanes\" />\n*[National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml)*" }, { "id": 18549, "title": "Will advancements in space-based observation systems lead to a significant reduction in illegal fishing activities in global marine regions before 2031?", "short_title": "Illegal Fishing and Satellite Monitoring", "url_title": "Illegal Fishing and Satellite Monitoring", "slug": "illegal-fishing-and-satellite-monitoring", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-26T17:21:34.378022Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.578209Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18549, "title": "Will advancements in space-based observation systems lead to a significant reduction in illegal fishing activities in global marine regions before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-26T17:21:34.378022Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a global problem causing significant ecological, economic, and social harm. Current enforcement mechanisms for preventing illegal fishing activities are often limited by the vastness and complexity of marine regions, making comprehensive monitoring a challenging task.\nWith advancements in technology, space-based observation systems like satellites and remote sensing technologies have become increasingly crucial in monitoring and protecting marine resources. These technologies can potentially provide real-time, wide-area monitoring capabilities that could significantly enhance the detection of illegal activities and environmental anomalies.\n\nAdvancements in space-based observation systems could have profound implications for marine conservation, sustainable fishing practices, and international law enforcement.", "resolution_criteria": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report a 5% or larger reduction (or if no quantifiable estimate is provided a characterization of the reduction as \"significant\" or otherwise substantial) in illegal fishing activities in global marine regions attributable to advancements in space-based observation systems. The reduction must apply broadly and not be isolated to a single location or small region.\n2. “Illegal fishing activities\" refer to activities that contravene national and international fishing laws, including, but not limited to, fishing without permission, fishing in closed areas, fishing in protected areas, fishing for protected species, and exceeding fishing quotas.\n4. The space-based observation systems need not be the sole contributor to the reduction, but their contribution should be identifiable and significant. The use of satellites to produce better estimates that show less illegal fishing does not qualify, satellite observation has to be directly implemented in enforcement.\n5. If such reports or demonstrations are not available before 2031, or if they indicate that the technology has not led to a significant reduction in illegal fishing activities, the question will resolve as **No**.\n6. The onus of this question is on establishing the effectiveness of these technologies in achieving the stated goals, and conflicting reports, or ambiguous or mixed evidence, will not be sufficient.", "fine_print": "Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt.", "post_id": 18549, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753921469.674566, "end_time": 1760078323.308796, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.371 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753921469.674566, "end_time": 1760078323.308796, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.371 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2689979031062646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.31277297841981777, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289992.050463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289992.050463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8536528367792732, 0.14634716322072686 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a global problem causing significant ecological, economic, and social harm. Current enforcement mechanisms for preventing illegal fishing activities are often limited by the vastness and complexity of marine regions, making comprehensive monitoring a challenging task.\nWith advancements in technology, space-based observation systems like satellites and remote sensing technologies have become increasingly crucial in monitoring and protecting marine resources. These technologies can potentially provide real-time, wide-area monitoring capabilities that could significantly enhance the detection of illegal activities and environmental anomalies.\n\nAdvancements in space-based observation systems could have profound implications for marine conservation, sustainable fishing practices, and international law enforcement." }, { "id": 18548, "title": "Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?", "short_title": "Von der Leyen COM President 2024 elections", "url_title": "Von der Leyen COM President 2024 elections", "slug": "von-der-leyen-com-president-2024-elections", "author_id": 118047, "author_username": "AndyPrenner", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-26T11:09:52.114074Z", "published_at": "2023-09-01T19:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.190077Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-01T19:32:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T13:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T13:50:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-01T19:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18548, "title": "Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?", "created_at": "2023-08-26T11:09:52.114074Z", "open_time": "2023-09-01T19:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-03T19:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-03T19:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T13:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-17T13:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T13:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ursula von der Leyen (DE/EPP) is the current President of the European Commission. The European Commission President is elected for a 5-year term by the European Parliament after European elections, meaning her term will end in 2024, coinciding with the 2024 European Parliament elections. The European Council proposes a candidate, usually from the largest political group in the Parliament, considering election results. The Parliament must approve the candidate by an absolute majority, and then the European Council officially appoints the new President.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves yes if Ursula von der Leyen is officially appointed by the European Council as President of the European Commission after the European elections in June 2024 and before the end of the year 2024. \n\nResolves no if Von der Leyen is not appointed Commission President in 2024 (another candidate is appointed or negotiations continue beyond 2024).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18548, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721308340.412418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721308340.412418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7197199143090717 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2618107493250952, 0.0, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6464403937333578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30580867172256143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8792478106683608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5138604178499118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4539643988236515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.512823022774802, "coverage": 0.657058094653913, "baseline_score": 17.11488834669214, "spot_peer_score": -38.90887148722603, "peer_archived_score": 11.512823022774802, "baseline_archived_score": 17.11488834669214, "spot_peer_archived_score": -38.90887148722603 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720944104.174605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720944104.174605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.23768037073470216, 0.7623196292652978 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ursula von der Leyen (DE/EPP) is the current President of the European Commission. 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The Parliament must approve the candidate by an absolute majority, and then the European Council officially appoints the new President." }, { "id": 18545, "title": "Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?", "short_title": "US aircraft carrier sunk", "url_title": "US aircraft carrier sunk", "slug": "us-aircraft-carrier-sunk", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-25T23:10:27.691661Z", "published_at": "2023-08-29T23:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T20:30:03.948398Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-29T23:47:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-29T23:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18545, "title": "Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-08-25T23:10:27.691661Z", "open_time": "2023-08-29T23:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-30T06:56:19.704652Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-30T06:56:19.704652Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers) an American aircraft carrier was sunk in combat was at the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Despite this, [much speculation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/?sh=68e60f712a37) exists on the possibility of American aircraft carriers being destroyed in conflicts with adversaries such as China, Russia, or Iran.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2050, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action. This question pertains to the [carrier vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_the_United_States_Navy) (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as [LHD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing_helicopter_dock)'s).", "fine_print": "* Any new or existing CV variant, as classified by the US, will be considered for this question.\n* Enemy military action will be considered to be any combative action from an opposing belligerent or combatant force, including terrorism and non-human action.", "post_id": 18545, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758486593.405001, "end_time": 1776498261.848955, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.256 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.303 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758486593.405001, "end_time": 1776498261.848955, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.256 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.303 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.744, 0.256 ], "means": [ 0.278288857614577 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8398849874550897, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030645134464605966, 0.0, 0.0005612852165504251, 0.7949980572039204, 0.0, 0.5395530814718785, 0.615523979804894, 0.5780890010866883, 0.037286313441487653, 0.0, 1.2614629306926106, 0.3671566801324653, 0.0, 0.9100028382176112, 0.0591057465619563, 1.020073818709589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.473903928695683, 0.005692210692547144, 0.9425827161078613, 0.19600271381795006, 0.0, 2.119155645531891, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23153275329468304, 0.0, 0.03383492044223947, 0.008707034755549023, 0.4191576116334327, 0.0, 0.027700581072225252, 0.11296731134771772, 0.2996406112495645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6769704157320977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4189238528279471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012750615313996135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00659673955321026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01614116511509263, 0.0, 0.32084018499459366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107509564145664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03146093229253167, 0.5091402814541253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22643861771824655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015257314047317206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0904897364644334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024985744145835546 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288573.574445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288573.574445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.869006157047684, 0.13099384295231595 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers) an American aircraft carrier was sunk in combat was at the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Despite this, [much speculation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/?sh=68e60f712a37) exists on the possibility of American aircraft carriers being destroyed in conflicts with adversaries such as China, Russia, or Iran." }, { "id": 18541, "title": "Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?", "short_title": "China Military Base in BRICS", "url_title": "China Military Base in BRICS", "slug": "china-military-base-in-brics", "author_id": 152350, "author_username": "Clearview", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-25T07:17:55.453439Z", "published_at": "2023-08-26T19:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:57:55.876491Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-26T19:59:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-26T19:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18541, "title": "Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-08-25T07:17:55.453439Z", "open_time": "2023-08-26T19:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-28T19:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-28T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of August 2023, China has only one military base overseas - a naval base in Djibouti, Africa. However, there are clear indications that they are interested in expanding their global power projection capabilities, and indeed some overseas naval bases are allegedly under construction in Asia and Africa.\n\nWith the adding of seven new member countries to BRICS, an alliance primarily focused on economic and diplomatic partnership, it is an important question regarding the standoff between East and West whether BRICS will take a more militaristic aspect as well. Overseas Chinese military bases would be a strong indication of this.\n\n[China may be planning overseas naval bases] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/27/china-building-overseas-naval-bases-across-asia-and-africa-say-analysts", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve to YES if either the Chinese government or US intelligence community publicly announces a Chinese military base in a BRICS country before January 1st, 2026.\n\nThe country needs to be an official member of BRICS, thus the seven new nations that were invited in August 2023 will count towards YES only after January 2024, when they're projected to officially join.\n\nIf the Chinese base is in a country which only afterwards joins BRICS, the question will still resolve to YES.", "fine_print": "US intelligence community's announcement requires a \"high likelihood of Chinese operated base\". In the event of numerical announcement (which is unlikely), \"high likelihood\" means a confidence of 90% or more.\n\nThe base needs to be projected to operate indefinitely, meaning that the Chinese operating a military base for the duration of temporary exercises (<1 year) do not count towards YES.\n\nNaval bases and a military airfields both count as military bases.\n\nAnnouncement from Pentagon or a US government institution of equal significance (e.g. White House) counts as Intelligence Community announcement.", "post_id": 18541, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758265500.467421, "end_time": 1758822196.397, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.084 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758265500.467421, "end_time": 1758822196.397, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.084 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.916, 0.084 ], "means": [ 0.15088118919627097 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2510683601437402, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 1.20879348632548, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6575406083779829, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287831.479707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287831.479707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.644918010641347, 0.3550819893586529 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of August 2023, China has only one military base overseas - a naval base in Djibouti, Africa. However, there are clear indications that they are interested in expanding their global power projection capabilities, and indeed some overseas naval bases are allegedly under construction in Asia and Africa.\n\nWith the adding of seven new member countries to BRICS, an alliance primarily focused on economic and diplomatic partnership, it is an important question regarding the standoff between East and West whether BRICS will take a more militaristic aspect as well. Overseas Chinese military bases would be a strong indication of this.\n\n[China may be planning overseas naval bases] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/27/china-building-overseas-naval-bases-across-asia-and-africa-say-analysts" }, { "id": 18535, "title": "Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?", "short_title": "Access Granted to Joe & Hunter Biden Records?", "url_title": "Access Granted to Joe & Hunter Biden Records?", "slug": "access-granted-to-joe-hunter-biden-records", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-24T22:39:28.672953Z", "published_at": "2023-08-26T21:51:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.012745Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-26T21:51:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T17:00:00Z", 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"scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer has [requested](https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-seeks-nara-records-revealing-how-then-vp-biden-mixed-official-government-duties-with-familys-influence-peddling/) that the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) provide special access to then-Vice President Joe Biden’s records concerning his tenure and activities overlapping with his son’s dealings in Ukraine. This request pertains to unredacted documents and communications, specifically those in which then-Vice President Joe Biden used a pseudonym, along with several other associated names, and drafts of a specific speech made in December 2015.\n\nThe Committee is investigating meetings and communications between President Biden, certain family members, and their business associates during his tenure as Vice President. The Committee’s stated objective is to address potential deficiencies in the existing legal framework concerning ethics laws and disclosure of financial interests related to the immediate family of Vice Presidents and Presidents.\n\nThe House Oversight Committee claims to have evidence suggesting that the Biden family has been involved in schemes, essentially capitalizing on their 'brand', which reportedly garnered millions from foreign nationals.\n\nThe full text of the [letter](https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-seeks-nara-records-revealing-how-then-vp-biden-mixed-official-government-duties-with-familys-influence-peddling/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as:\n\n\n* \"Yes\" if, before September 1, 2023, there is official confirmation from either the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), the Committee on Oversight and Accountability, or credible news sources, stating that the Committee on Oversight and Accountability was granted access to *any* of the records mentioned in Chairman James Comer's letter, *in response to the letter*. The phrase “unrestricted special access” does not need to appear. \n\nAny subset of the following relevant documents, per Comer's letter, can be provided for positive resolution: \n\n1. Complete, unredacted versions of all documents from Case Number 2023-0022-F; \n2. Any document or communication in which a pseudonym for Vice President Joe Biden was included either as a sender, recipient, copied or was included in the contents of the document or communication, including but not limited to Robert Peters, Robin Ware, and JRB Ware;\n3. Any document or communication in which Hunter Biden, Eric Schwerin, or Devon Archer was included either as a sender, recipient, copied, or was included in the contents of the document or communication; and\n4. All drafts from November 1, 2015 to December 9, 2015 of then-Vice President Biden’s speech delivered to the Ukrainian Rada on December 9, 2015.\n\n* \"No\" if, before September 1, 2023, no confirmation as described above appears or if there is confirmation that the request was denied.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18535, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693413787.105222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693413787.105222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.047841416678134 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0028190640590402, 6.125386488485271, 1.1656000397528072, 2.3624721883381343, 0.3857471004269987, 1.30733015756357, 0.04857271809392319, 0.4903871435773225, 0.0014822998514409601, 0.016194143319162562, 1.0077147504067718, 0.020500370748786623, 0.14636439202690826, 0.0, 0.014318380015828209, 0.1877490975803815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04843483947191467, 0.0, 0.06866972311929001, 0.0, 0.11492808191066167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011058522686470973, 0.0, 0.04297263601330976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031666067639848578, 0.0, 0.0061954904951238765, 0.0, 0.06272559655183406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35701212417094697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.034220669386876, "coverage": 0.9954921464652089, "baseline_score": 77.61348060865676, "spot_peer_score": 11.055056606094764, "peer_archived_score": 5.034220669386876, "baseline_archived_score": 77.61348060865676, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.055056606094764 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693413787.153136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693413787.153136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9951738624205253, 0.004826137579474745 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 203, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer has [requested](https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-seeks-nara-records-revealing-how-then-vp-biden-mixed-official-government-duties-with-familys-influence-peddling/) that the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) provide special access to then-Vice President Joe Biden’s records concerning his tenure and activities overlapping with his son’s dealings in Ukraine. This request pertains to unredacted documents and communications, specifically those in which then-Vice President Joe Biden used a pseudonym, along with several other associated names, and drafts of a specific speech made in December 2015.\n\nThe Committee is investigating meetings and communications between President Biden, certain family members, and their business associates during his tenure as Vice President. The Committee’s stated objective is to address potential deficiencies in the existing legal framework concerning ethics laws and disclosure of financial interests related to the immediate family of Vice Presidents and Presidents.\n\nThe House Oversight Committee claims to have evidence suggesting that the Biden family has been involved in schemes, essentially capitalizing on their 'brand', which reportedly garnered millions from foreign nationals.\n\nThe full text of the [letter](https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-seeks-nara-records-revealing-how-then-vp-biden-mixed-official-government-duties-with-familys-influence-peddling/)." }, { "id": 18531, "title": "Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?", "short_title": "Will Prigozhin be seen before March 2024?", "url_title": "Will Prigozhin be seen before March 2024?", "slug": "will-prigozhin-be-seen-before-march-2024", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-23T20:30:56.173340Z", "published_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.903011Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-23T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-23T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T15:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 156, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18531, "title": "Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?", "created_at": "2023-08-23T20:30:56.173340Z", "open_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-24T06:05:40.692342Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-24T06:05:40.692342Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T15:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-24T15:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-23T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-23T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-war-news/prigozhin-chief-of-the-wagner-group-was-listed-among-the-passengers-of-a-business-jet-that-crashed?smid=url-share):\n\n> Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief mutiny against Russia’s military leadership in June, was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed Wednesday [23 August 2023], killing all 10 people aboard, according to Russian aviation authorities.\n\nAnd further:\n\n> Russian media have reported that the plane that crashed on Wednesday was an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet with the tail number RA-02795. Past news reports have linked the plane to Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner.\n\n> Russian media reported that eight bodies had so far been recovered.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Yevgeny V. Prigozhin makes a public appearance at any time between 23 August 2023 to 23 February 2024, as reported by credible sources. If Prigozhin's dead body is identified before 23 February 2024, *or* if he does not make any public appearance in that time, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18531, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708617547.052407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708617547.052407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0045232587180682945 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.84284891795642, 6.199767509883612, 0.12442593205507928, 0.0010774676632900428, 0.0004629586516335695, 0.22871385210762446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01822949080189032, 0.06774280489566085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.368453063512443e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.8703874850139091, "coverage": 0.9999519630132953, "baseline_score": 99.08586462946157, "spot_peer_score": 50.295098403758494, "peer_archived_score": 0.8703874850139091, "baseline_archived_score": 99.08586462946157, "spot_peer_archived_score": 50.295098403758494 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708674615.350867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708674615.350867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 267, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-war-news/prigozhin-chief-of-the-wagner-group-was-listed-among-the-passengers-of-a-business-jet-that-crashed?smid=url-share):\n\n> Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief mutiny against Russia’s military leadership in June, was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed Wednesday [23 August 2023], killing all 10 people aboard, according to Russian aviation authorities.\n\nAnd further:\n\n> Russian media have reported that the plane that crashed on Wednesday was an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet with the tail number RA-02795. Past news reports have linked the plane to Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner.\n\n> Russian media reported that eight bodies had so far been recovered." }, { "id": 18530, "title": "Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?", "short_title": "Prigozhin Dead before November 2023?", "url_title": "Prigozhin Dead before November 2023?", "slug": "prigozhin-dead-before-november-2023", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-23T20:09:25.689862Z", "published_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.871716Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T01:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-30T01:39:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 126, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18530, "title": "Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-23T20:09:25.689862Z", "open_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-24T04:24:39.295183Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-24T04:24:39.295183Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-30T01:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-30T01:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T01:39:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-war-news/prigozhin-chief-of-the-wagner-group-was-listed-among-the-passengers-of-a-business-jet-that-crashed?smid=url-share):\n\n> Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief mutiny against Russia’s military leadership in June, was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed Wednesday [23 August 2023], killing all 10 people aboard, according to Russian aviation authorities.\n\nAnd further:\n\n> Russian media have reported that the plane that crashed on Wednesday was an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet with the tail number RA-02795. Past news reports have linked the plane to Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner.\n\n> Russian media reported that eight bodies had so far been recovered.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources state before November 1, 2023 that Yevgeny V. Prigozhin is confirmed to be dead (due to any cause). 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Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief mutiny against Russia’s military leadership in June, was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed Wednesday [23 August 2023], killing all 10 people aboard, according to Russian aviation authorities.\n\nAnd further:\n\n> Russian media have reported that the plane that crashed on Wednesday was an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet with the tail number RA-02795. Past news reports have linked the plane to Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner.\n\n> Russian media reported that eight bodies had so far been recovered." }, { "id": 18525, "title": "Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?", "short_title": "Non-proprietary LLM in top 5?", "url_title": "Non-proprietary LLM in top 5?", "slug": "non-proprietary-llm-in-top-5", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-23T05:41:48.025904Z", "published_at": "2023-08-25T18:53:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.849986Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-25T18:53:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-25T18:53:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18525, "title": "Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-23T05:41:48.025904Z", "open_time": "2023-08-25T18:53:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-08T18:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-08T18:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Chatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems.\n\nAs of August 22, 2023, the top five models on the leaderboard, as ranked by Elo, are all proprietary:\n\n| Model | ⭐ Arena Elo rating | 📈 MT-bench (score) | MMLU | License |\n|--------------------|--------------------|---------------------|------|--------------------|\n| GPT-4 | 1206 | 8.99 | 86.4 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-1 | 1166 | 7.9 | 77 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-instant-1 | 1138 | 7.85 | 73.4 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-2 | 1135 | 8.06 | 78.5 | Proprietary |\n| GPT-3.5-turbo | 1122 | 7.94 | 70 | Proprietary |\n| Vicuna-33B | 1096 | 7.12 | 59.2 | Non-commercial |\n| Vicuna-13B | 1051 | 6.57 | 55.8 | Llama 2 Community |\n| MPT-30B-chat | 1046 | 6.39 | 50.4 | CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 |\n| WizardLM-13B-v1.1 | 1040 | 6.76 | 50 | Non-commercial |\n| Guanaco-33B | 1038 | 6.53 | 57.6 | Non-commercial |", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, at noon ET on September 30, 2023, an LLM that is listed as having any non-proprietary license is listed in the top 5 models on the [chat.lmsys.org](https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard) leaderboard.\n\nThe question resolves **No** if each of the top 5 models is listed as having a \"proprietary\" license.\n\nThe leaderboard will be sorted by \"[Arena ELO rating](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/).\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696080299.798561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696080299.798561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.09776083024053005 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.778769937343709, 6.637576997556348, 1.2411433904546771, 0.19898876831476764, 0.0224267048862419, 0.023570657402855074, 0.04139349889794634, 0.007064033012232248, 0.2195808587452695, 0.0027279914748398883, 0.004307781981663051, 0.0, 0.0077707472895727076, 0.0, 0.0014396715385694681, 0.002576560229569946, 0.0027977026545892903, 0.2390473384080099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289965199472163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046059384244688986, 0.0, 0.014339583406843433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034246513430728643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004530981350361459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.260885861553427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010633760576014552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001213226150373535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00036601963165768176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007857345343876863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022111209728182583 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.73077757936565, "coverage": 0.9999863140032696, "baseline_score": 66.19340589786665, "spot_peer_score": 32.69464464218523, "peer_archived_score": 22.73077757936565, "baseline_archived_score": 66.19340589786665, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.69464464218523 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696080299.858234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696080299.858234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9952612420542755, 0.00473875794572454 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 509, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Chatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems.\n\nAs of August 22, 2023, the top five models on the leaderboard, as ranked by Elo, are all proprietary:\n\n| Model | ⭐ Arena Elo rating | 📈 MT-bench (score) | MMLU | License |\n|--------------------|--------------------|---------------------|------|--------------------|\n| GPT-4 | 1206 | 8.99 | 86.4 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-1 | 1166 | 7.9 | 77 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-instant-1 | 1138 | 7.85 | 73.4 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-2 | 1135 | 8.06 | 78.5 | Proprietary |\n| GPT-3.5-turbo | 1122 | 7.94 | 70 | Proprietary |\n| Vicuna-33B | 1096 | 7.12 | 59.2 | Non-commercial |\n| Vicuna-13B | 1051 | 6.57 | 55.8 | Llama 2 Community |\n| MPT-30B-chat | 1046 | 6.39 | 50.4 | CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 |\n| WizardLM-13B-v1.1 | 1040 | 6.76 | 50 | Non-commercial |\n| Guanaco-33B | 1038 | 6.53 | 57.6 | Non-commercial |" }, { "id": 18523, "title": "Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?", "short_title": "BA.2.86 a Variant of Interest?", "url_title": "BA.2.86 a Variant of Interest?", "slug": "ba286-a-variant-of-interest", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-23T02:05:36.665267Z", "published_at": "2023-08-23T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.538427Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-23T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-23T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18523, "title": "Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-23T02:05:36.665267Z", "open_time": "2023-08-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-23T21:15:54.009951Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-23T21:15:54.009951Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02656-9), \"Researchers are racing to determine whether a highly mutated coronavirus variant that has popped up in three continents will be a global concern — or much ado about nothing.\"\n\nOn August 17th, the WHO labeled BA.2.86 a \"Variant Under Monitoring,\" noting \"mutations relative to putative ancestor BA.2\" and \"Only 3 sequences available. Added as VUM based on the large number of mutations identified.\"\n\nWHO could designate BA.2.86 a \"[Variant of Interest](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants),\" a designation used for:\n\n> - A SARS-CoV-2 variant with genetic changes that are predicted or known to affect virus characteristics such as transmissibility, virulence, antibody evasion, susceptibility to therapeutics and detectability; AND\n> - identified to have a growth advantage over other circulating variants in more than one WHO region with increasing relative prevalence alongside increasing number of cases over time, or other apparent epidemiological impacts to suggest an emerging risk to global public health. \n\n[Ars Technica reports](https://arstechnica.com/health/2023/08/ba-2-86-shows-just-how-risky-slacking-off-on-covid-monitoring-is/) that BA.2.86 has gained attention because of \" 34 mutations in its spike gene relative to BA.2, the omicron sublineage from which it descended. This number of spike mutations between BA.2.86 and BA.2 is chillingly similar to the number of mutations seen between the original omicron (BA.1) and the ancestral Wuhan strain.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2023, the WHO lists BA.2.86 as a \"Variant of Interest\" on their [\"Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants\" page](https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, BA.2.86 includes any BA.2.86.x pango lineage. Variants that include genetic features of BA.2.86, but which are not classified as a BA.2.86.x pango lineages, are not sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "post_id": 18523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696096495.638067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696096495.638067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.025477782279422666 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.79339701875429, 4.506607317692117, 0.10160998748080612, 0.2688365966302467, 0.38167053064622414, 2.0346490247542635, 0.0013836847296133652, 0.0015649527945986303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8804720393506984, 0.0030969534085871294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019810935263033526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003977768556107484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03432426661980639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014324495277256958, 0.6200210908481142, 0.0, 0.0012076653337255124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004287750568701284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01925940697571402, 0.0005987133726784101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.888960623282995e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018726136479240064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010224124090346844, 0.0, 0.00023712164777583806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007254371728824626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035718598937916577 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.807273819874384, "coverage": 0.9999938464903257, "baseline_score": 80.8551547430639, "spot_peer_score": 56.52873776603019, "peer_archived_score": 14.807273819874384, "baseline_archived_score": 80.8551547430639, "spot_peer_archived_score": 56.52873776603019 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696096495.669977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696096495.669977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 605, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02656-9), \"Researchers are racing to determine whether a highly mutated coronavirus variant that has popped up in three continents will be a global concern — or much ado about nothing.\"\n\nOn August 17th, the WHO labeled BA.2.86 a \"Variant Under Monitoring,\" noting \"mutations relative to putative ancestor BA.2\" and \"Only 3 sequences available. Added as VUM based on the large number of mutations identified.\"\n\nWHO could designate BA.2.86 a \"[Variant of Interest](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants),\" a designation used for:\n\n> - A SARS-CoV-2 variant with genetic changes that are predicted or known to affect virus characteristics such as transmissibility, virulence, antibody evasion, susceptibility to therapeutics and detectability; AND\n> - identified to have a growth advantage over other circulating variants in more than one WHO region with increasing relative prevalence alongside increasing number of cases over time, or other apparent epidemiological impacts to suggest an emerging risk to global public health. \n\n[Ars Technica reports](https://arstechnica.com/health/2023/08/ba-2-86-shows-just-how-risky-slacking-off-on-covid-monitoring-is/) that BA.2.86 has gained attention because of \" 34 mutations in its spike gene relative to BA.2, the omicron sublineage from which it descended. This number of spike mutations between BA.2.86 and BA.2 is chillingly similar to the number of mutations seen between the original omicron (BA.1) and the ancestral Wuhan strain.\"" }, { "id": 18515, "title": "Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?", "short_title": "Death from Terrorism in Sweden before 2031?", "url_title": "Death from Terrorism in Sweden before 2031?", "slug": "death-from-terrorism-in-sweden-before-2031", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-22T06:04:33.633325Z", "published_at": "2023-08-24T15:11:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.111257Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-24T15:11:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-24T15:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18515, "title": "Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-22T06:04:33.633325Z", "open_time": "2023-08-24T15:11:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-24T18:38:47.649829Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-24T18:38:47.649829Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Swedish security services publishes a Terrorism Threat Level, [which according to the police](https://polisen.se/en/the-swedish-police/Raising-general-awareness-of-terrorism-related-issues/questions-and-answers-about-the-raised-terror-threat-level/)\n\n> has [been at a] heightened threat level (3) for almost 13 years. We have spent many years enhancing our capacity. \n\nMore recently, the [Swedish Security Services raised this threat level to 4](https://säkerhetspolisen.se/ovriga-sidor/nyheter/nyheter/2023-08-17-hojning-av-terrorhotnivan-till-hogt-hot.html):\n\n> The threat level changes from heightened (3) to high (4) on a five-point scale. Raising the threat level is supposed to work as a signal to the relevant authorities about the importance of continued work with actions that lower the risk of a terrorist attack occurring.\n\nThe reason is given by the same source as\n\n> The threat toward Sweden has gradually changed and the attack threat from actors related to violent Islamism has increased during the year. Sweden has gone from being a legitimate target for terrorist attacks to becoming a prioritised target.\n\nThe five-point terrorism threat scale has the following fuzzy descriptions:\n\n1. No threat identified\n\n2. Limited threat\n\n3. Heightened threat\n\n4. High threat\n\n5. Very high threat\n\nThis question is, to some degree, about figuring out the practical consequences of this raised threat level.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a terrorist attack has resulted in at least one civilian or innocent death in Sweden between 1 August 2023 to 1 January 2031. Determination of whether a death is attributed to \"terrorism\" or some other homicide will be determined by the swedish government and/or police if they publicly state that the crime is being investigated or charged as a terrorist attack (conviction is not required).", "fine_print": "Any terrorist attack where only the perpetrators die will be excluded from this question.", "post_id": 18515, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756778538.211009, "end_time": 1760115196.463753, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756778538.211009, "end_time": 1760115196.463753, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8895827077133359 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.520136487115066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2515406540753948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6513080407565454, 0.0, 0.04559318956273326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027172461172235558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032240221494671, 0.002007023398223986, 0.04031214257072945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06463710864254305, 0.0, 0.01744285986675472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7407553432917169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4731343342397403, 0.2614567985550158, 0.70396263366286, 0.0, 0.0, 2.707230253589751, 0.9326977156938286, 0.41207610303291553, 0.32356993027434205, 2.6437377339683454 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287821.959644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287821.959644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.28879056639412926, 0.7112094336058707 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Swedish security services publishes a Terrorism Threat Level, [which according to the police](https://polisen.se/en/the-swedish-police/Raising-general-awareness-of-terrorism-related-issues/questions-and-answers-about-the-raised-terror-threat-level/)\n\n> has [been at a] heightened threat level (3) for almost 13 years. We have spent many years enhancing our capacity. \n\nMore recently, the [Swedish Security Services raised this threat level to 4](https://säkerhetspolisen.se/ovriga-sidor/nyheter/nyheter/2023-08-17-hojning-av-terrorhotnivan-till-hogt-hot.html):\n\n> The threat level changes from heightened (3) to high (4) on a five-point scale. Raising the threat level is supposed to work as a signal to the relevant authorities about the importance of continued work with actions that lower the risk of a terrorist attack occurring.\n\nThe reason is given by the same source as\n\n> The threat toward Sweden has gradually changed and the attack threat from actors related to violent Islamism has increased during the year. Sweden has gone from being a legitimate target for terrorist attacks to becoming a prioritised target.\n\nThe five-point terrorism threat scale has the following fuzzy descriptions:\n\n1. No threat identified\n\n2. Limited threat\n\n3. Heightened threat\n\n4. High threat\n\n5. Very high threat\n\nThis question is, to some degree, about figuring out the practical consequences of this raised threat level." }, { "id": 18497, "title": "Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?", "short_title": "1500 annual NYC murders before 2050", "url_title": "1500 annual NYC murders before 2050", "slug": "1500-annual-nyc-murders-before-2050", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-21T16:41:09.253384Z", "published_at": "2023-10-07T20:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.061115Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-07T20:08:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-07T20:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32727, "name": "Brooklyn Tech Forecasting Community", "type": "community", "slug": "bths", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 133576, "username": "Quincy", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ] }, "question": { "id": 18497, "title": "Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-08-21T16:41:09.253384Z", "open_time": "2023-10-07T20:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-09T20:08:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-09T20:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[New York City](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City) is the largest city in the United States, and therefore it is the focus of significant media attention. Homicides [briefly surged during COVID](https://apnews.com/article/new-york-shootings-new-york-city-violence-coronavirus-pandemic-b1c52b8071219052fd713a6b83999698), causing stories to appear in the media fearing [a return to the \"bad old days\"](https://thecrimereport.org/2021/03/03/is-new-york-citys-spike-in-violence-a-return-to-the-bad-old-days/). However, [homicides have since declined](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/nyregion/shootings-nyc-crime.html).\n\nFor reference, there were [438 homicides](https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/historical-crime-data/seven-major-felony-offenses-2000-2022.pdf) reported in 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the New York City Police Department (or equivalent future organization) officially reports the number of murders (and non-negligent manslaughters) for a year to be at least 1,500. The data can be accessed at [this site](https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/historical.page).", "fine_print": "If New York City ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. \n\nAlso, death tolls must be from non-terrorist actions. In the scenario where deaths due to a terror attack are included in NYPD data, all terrorism-related deaths will be subtracted from the final number of murders for the year.", "post_id": 18497, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752691185.477106, "end_time": 1779504452.764749, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752691185.477106, "end_time": 1779504452.764749, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.11008969359003457 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2251319105471636, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 1.2639310103124692, 0.0, 0.5839769355880425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.32526806357643256, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287659.588905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287659.588905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.967079694951069, 0.03292030504893099 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[New York City](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City) is the largest city in the United States, and therefore it is the focus of significant media attention. Homicides [briefly surged during COVID](https://apnews.com/article/new-york-shootings-new-york-city-violence-coronavirus-pandemic-b1c52b8071219052fd713a6b83999698), causing stories to appear in the media fearing [a return to the \"bad old days\"](https://thecrimereport.org/2021/03/03/is-new-york-citys-spike-in-violence-a-return-to-the-bad-old-days/). However, [homicides have since declined](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/nyregion/shootings-nyc-crime.html).\n\nFor reference, there were [438 homicides](https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/historical-crime-data/seven-major-felony-offenses-2000-2022.pdf) reported in 2022." } ] }
