Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3100
{ "count": 6357, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3120", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3080", "results": [ { "id": 22304, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?", "short_title": "Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?", "url_title": "Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?", "slug": "human-transmission-of-h5n1-before-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T20:48:22.746590Z", "published_at": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.577556Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T19:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15863, "name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1", "emoji": "🐦🦠", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2723, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2023/24", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-23-24", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cdc-cover-final.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-01T20:27:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:27:29.753744Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:38:08.663730Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2723, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2023/24", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-23-24", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cdc-cover-final.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-01T20:27:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:27:29.753744Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:38:08.663730Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22304, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T20:48:22.746590Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T19:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T19:18:02.818371Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 11, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.", "fine_print": "* Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.\n* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.", "post_id": 22304, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735672217.899967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735672217.899967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.993, 0.007 ], "means": [ 0.0375679819115014 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.12361022496721, 3.2152983790423173, 1.8079748715349213, 0.7144810033890627, 0.31514319295084336, 0.9639496613159209, 0.17571884006187413, 0.0, 0.8918143069229153, 0.034696093969595776, 0.20337004215512375, 0.021896605555686482, 0.007858760696402532, 0.0018032236332332975, 0.0, 0.3224644108444249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01889469055248197, 0.14181361599621176, 0.02529677777500878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39465029486301006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03347459912769655, 0.0, 0.07015702779701344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0312425072014284, 0.01505059801104587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005032122352993422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016466199934954406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0039685052601550535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847248887964451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007369602243589552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1265601592475675, 0.0, 0.03584292707174096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02034849615368459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.71776348084745, "peer_score": 13.746226723525956, "coverage": 0.9999563738620081, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999563738620081, "spot_peer_score": 13.778720420487572, "spot_baseline_score": 89.53026213333065, "baseline_archived_score": 87.71776348084745, "peer_archived_score": 13.746226723525956, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.778720420487572, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 89.53026213333065 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288066.720618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288066.720618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9492436167848286, 0.05075638321517141 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 566, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally." }, { "id": 22302, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $950 on any single day before May 21, 2024?", "short_title": "NVIDIA Stock Above $950 Before May 21?", "url_title": "NVIDIA Stock Above $950 Before May 21?", "slug": "nvidia-stock-above-950-before-may-21", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T20:10:53.243266Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.315622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 639, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22302, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $950 on any single day before May 21, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T20:10:53.243266Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-earnings-after-parabolic-stock-rally.html). The stock is up [approximately 79% year-to-date as of April 15, 2024](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjVr6qM8LyEAxWY5MkDHRwNC4UQ3ecFegQIahAf&window=YTD).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 16, 2024, and before May 21, 2024, the price of NVIDIA stock (NVDA), in US dollars, at market close is greater than $950. Resolution will be determined according to the close value shown by [Yahoo finance historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history).", "fine_print": "* If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment the resolution value will be adjusted to account for the split.", "post_id": 22302, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716237020.582385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 639, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716237020.582385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 639, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.155969487006629 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.135201575954994, 17.480827044575918, 0.009718386013924465, 0.42511135133473077, 0.10027480662596526, 0.0881163443244583, 0.11066086907411546, 0.1626202780716856, 0.08072415078315619, 0.02763987144556652, 0.8888697435241759, 0.07728901909489894, 0.23020404916800646, 0.04683606263691778, 0.005635505555713409, 0.5632500158975092, 0.09214710301738899, 0.1906421879039764, 0.06287062902374921, 0.008583481858000517, 0.020236013609191944, 0.010325644271723262, 0.042604468479956095, 0.011329075408530474, 1.4466069859395932e-06, 0.4962836700541613, 0.032937370201331105, 0.005229587839133154, 0.03491872885987178, 0.0, 0.5932972757802604, 0.1609997501183282, 0.0, 0.0075867054184220835, 0.13566646538146668, 0.537177978725615, 0.16837447841023767, 0.005769889868869994, 0.03683936355404236, 0.004974328143166466, 1.3209312368107353, 0.0, 0.4518811468378592, 0.23559498402722123, 0.004499259707527823, 0.20023872408231577, 0.030687394279236332, 7.228795349143744e-07, 0.256950598596835, 0.03855252144478106, 1.3944436300411933, 0.13278252754288325, 3.0248645947406055e-06, 0.49971698055667313, 0.3220474499407217, 9.00214626711604e-07, 1.9236519298034403e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4102909110232274e-09, 0.44357614210169166, 0.024365420055003747, 0.4071104190487529, 0.29030628597660674, 4.046105783841509e-09, 0.22130969581804152, 0.25324615929040034, 0.000692965168396823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13097511357919384, 4.5344079535263155e-06, 1.659235177319562e-05, 0.03238578636419339, 0.2728483505052505, 0.3289702459416875, 5.739669385980414e-10, 2.71637753931414e-05, 0.0, 0.004171584053720165, 0.02871101466847199, 0.0, 4.324083739401589e-11, 1.273489982328571e-06, 0.0, 0.2862372140134793, 0.0, 0.0, 5.74516393455945e-07, 0.19906374336518673, 0.08262677342027157, 0.019298689876419594, 0.0, 0.017158769689089307, 0.0, 0.19978144695614083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.835555135220486 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 27.99865647508473, "coverage": 0.9974142224861585, "baseline_score": 60.03663537893385, "spot_peer_score": 42.477002275222254, "peer_archived_score": 27.99865647508473, "baseline_archived_score": 60.03663537893385, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.477002275222254 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716232070.500797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 639, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716232070.500797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 639, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6989699413467689, 0.301030058653231 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3958, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-earnings-after-parabolic-stock-rally.html). The stock is up [approximately 79% year-to-date as of April 15, 2024](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjVr6qM8LyEAxWY5MkDHRwNC4UQ3ecFegQIahAf&window=YTD)." }, { "id": 22301, "title": "Will a version of Claude be the top model on chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on May 16, 2024?", "short_title": "Claude Top of Chatbot Arena on May 16, 2024?", "url_title": "Claude Top of Chatbot Arena on May 16, 2024?", "slug": "claude-top-of-chatbot-arena-on-may-16-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T19:59:03.025137Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.290125Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T16:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T16:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 402, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22301, "title": "Will a version of Claude be the top model on chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on May 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T19:59:03.025137Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T16:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T16:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-16T16:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Chatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, at noon ET on May 16, 2024, a version of Claude is the top model on the [chat.lmsys.org](https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard) leaderboard, when sorted by Arena ELO rating.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if any other model version is listed as the top model.", "fine_print": "* If another model is tied with a Claude model for the top position, with the same ELO, the question will resolve as **No**. \n* The numerical \"Rank\" column will be ignored for the purposes of determining resolution of this question. Only the ELO rating matters. A tie will be considered to be another model having an identical arena ELO rating to Claude.", "post_id": 22301, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715809972.964129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715809972.964129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.009651557515574569 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.167803580650343, 20.53839208616905, 0.0304673087852987, 0.007511121458770299, 0.2855546276580524, 0.04731372241369587, 0.006644486864588845, 1.4985287680290047e-05, 0.0013518010005503993, 0.0045813780133995095, 0.09788344048924566, 0.0, 0.034704946482420604, 0.00029433987768409854, 0.009401517543088362, 0.18052638838794363, 0.0002865165471915382, 0.0004900120390212246, 0.007263003318632593, 0.000412970255697625, 0.006102413929209249, 2.0888346039735014e-05, 7.942251228572626e-06, 0.001028565475525954, 0.0, 0.002785575305514509, 1.3400595656979713e-06, 9.535604638637928e-07, 0.0003125887597113705, 0.0, 0.12003994366904841, 5.405234730481219e-08, 7.37902533940639e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008667314212266022, 7.21595367986973e-08, 8.110289968616344e-05, 0.0, 1.1082629678363417e-08, 0.0007758122715005389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002472305382826592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010249393552429658, 1.5294364562758494e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.157352352460754e-06, 0.0001730965437420823, 1.978882450652322e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003328241929981329, 2.308598693027233e-06, 3.938276094871886e-08, 0.0003923398850967014, 0.0, 9.740014191128404e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020902485247923348, 6.679945908863184e-07, 0.0, 0.0006107474548491329, 0.0, 0.0017637592857245345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.540650325003214e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04317834702009405, 0.0, 0.00013443779856356074, 0.0, 0.0, 3.713020183209838e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017256388985329313 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 25.366666240738635, "coverage": 0.9999086540398572, "baseline_score": 89.68464725475785, "spot_peer_score": 29.156200928453007, "peer_archived_score": 25.366666240738635, "baseline_archived_score": 89.68464725475785, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.156200928453007 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715809973.036143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715809973.036143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1064, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Chatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems." }, { "id": 22299, "title": "Will the result from Study 2 of \"Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information\" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?", "short_title": "Information Endowment Effect Replicates?", "url_title": "Information Endowment Effect Replicates?", "slug": "information-endowment-effect-replicates", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 129286, "username": "Transparent_Replications" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-11T18:46:47.079656Z", "published_at": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.715890Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-26T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-26T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-06T14:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-06T14:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Transparent Replications", "slug": "transparent-replications", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Transparent Replications", "slug": "transparent-replications", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22299, "title": "Will the result from Study 2 of \"Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information\" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T18:46:47.079656Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-14T05:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-14T05:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-06T14:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-06T14:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-06T14:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-26T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-26T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Transparent Replications Project](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in Nature or Science involving online participants.\n\n## Context: How often have social science studies tended to replicate in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)\n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in Nature or Science (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\nThe replication described here was run as part of the Transparent Replications project, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if you’re interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/about/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the eight previous replications we’ve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the main study result is statistically significant in our replication (at significance level of p < 0.05, with the effect in the same direction as the original results). Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "## Original Study Results\n\nIn Study 2 of the original [research paper](https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2202700119), participants who were “endowed” with a bundle of 3 facts to learn (as shown in the Study Summary) were more likely to choose to learn that 3-fact bundle instead of learning a 4-fact bundle presented as an alternative option; in contrast, participants who *weren’t* “endowed” with either bundle and who could freely choose between them were more likely to choose to learn the 4-fact bundle. \n\n## Study Summary\n\n<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Information_Endownment_Effect_Diagram.jpeg\" alt=\"Information Endowment Effect Diagram\" />\n*[Click here for a higher resolution version of the study image](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ser7bvtfpazRnkBKBjUHJEm98e1DRbKj/view?usp=sharing)*\n\nThe original study randomized participants into one of two conditions: endowed and nonendowed. In the endowed condition, participants were told that they were on course to learn a specific bundle of three facts and were then offered the option to learn a separate bundle of four facts instead. In the nonendowed condition, participants were simply offered a choice between learning a bundle of three or a separate bundle of four facts, with the bundles shown in randomized order. \n\nResults of a chi-square goodness-of-fit test indicated that participants in the endowed condition were more likely to express a preference for learning three (versus four) facts than participants in the nonendowed condition. This supported the original researchers’ hypothesis that individuals exhibit the endowment effect for non-instrumental information.\n\nIn our study, we followed the same procedure, except that we distinguished between the half of the nonendowed condition where the 3-fact bundle was displayed on top and the half where the 4-fact bundle was displayed on top (these were represented by Conditions 2 and 3 respectively in the diagram above), so that we could conduct an additional analysis in case order effects had been contributing to the original study results (explained below). For the purposes of assessing whether the original study replicated in our dataset, however, Conditions 2 and 3 were pooled into one combined nonendowed condition. This means that our pooled Conditions 2 and 3 are together equivalent to (a larger version of) the original study’s nonendowed condition. (For details, see ***The Details*** section.)\n\nNone of the facts presented were of objectively greater utility or interest than any of the others. Facts related to, for example, the behavior of a particular animal, or the fact that the unicorn is the national animal of a country. Furthermore, each time we ran the experiment, we randomized which facts appeared in which order across both bundles. The subjective utility of a given fact would not be expected to affect experimental results due to this randomization process.\n\nThe original study included 146 adult participants from Prolific. Our replication included 631 adult participants (not counting exclusions) from MTurk via Positly.com.\n\n### The Details\n\nIn the original experiment, two variables had varied across conditions - both endowment *and* the order of presentation of the two bundles had varied. Option order had been randomized within the endowed condition such that a 3-fact bundle was shown on top half the time while a 4-fact bundle was shown on top the other half of the time within that condition. On the other hand, option order was not randomized in the endowed condition: the 3-fact bundle was always shown on top within that condition. To control for ordering effects, we increased sample size to 1.5 times our original planned size and split the nonendowed condition (now double the size it would otherwise have been) into two separate conditions: Conditions 2 and 3. Our participants were randomized into one of three conditions, as described below:\n\n* Condition 1: Endowed - Participants were told that they were on course to learn a specific bundle of three facts and were then offered the option to learn four different facts instead.\n* Condition 2: Nonendowed with 3-fact bundle displayed on top - Participants were offered a choice between learning three facts or four facts, with the bundle of 3 facts appearing as the top option.\n* Condition 3: Nonendowed with 4-fact bundle displayed on top - Participants were offered a choice between learning three facts or four facts, with the bundle of 4 facts appearing as the top option\n\n### Analysis\n\nTo evaluate the replicability of the original study, we ran a chi-square goodness-of-fit test to evaluate differences in preference for learning three facts between participants in the endowed versus the pooled nonendowed conditions. As stated in our pre-registration, our policy was to consider the study to have replicated if this test yielded a statistically significant result, with the difference in the same direction as the original finding (i.e., with a higher proportion of participants selecting the 3-fact bundle in the endowed compared to the pooled nonendowed conditions).", "post_id": 22299, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713803953.920158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713803953.920158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6288824901055979 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 1.436735677115472, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8871005774564371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -1.9692259702917205, "coverage": 0.992550337567367, "baseline_score": 27.584390166459556, "spot_peer_score": -6.747120309449561, "peer_archived_score": -1.9692259702917205, "baseline_archived_score": 27.584390166459556, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.747120309449561 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714117354.86216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714117354.86216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.46913743003411645, 0.5308625699658835 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Transparent Replications Project](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in Nature or Science involving online participants.\n\n## Context: How often have social science studies tended to replicate in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)\n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in Nature or Science (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\nThe replication described here was run as part of the Transparent Replications project, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if you’re interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/about/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the eight previous replications we’ve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/)." }, { "id": 22298, "title": "Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Israel Invasion of Rafah Before June 1, 2024?", "url_title": "Israel Invasion of Rafah Before June 1, 2024?", "slug": "israel-invasion-of-rafah-before-june-1-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 123015, "username": "IY" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-11T17:32:31.900568Z", "published_at": "2024-04-11T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.291788Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-11T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-13T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:31.900000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:31.900000Z", 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22298, "title": "Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T17:32:31.900568Z", "open_time": "2024-04-11T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:31.900000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-13T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-13T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:31.900000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-13T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand killed, and hundreds kidnapped.\n\nThe invasion was initially limited to Northern Gaza, but the plans were gradually expanded further South. Recently, Israel has [stated its intentions to expand its invasion to the Southern city of Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), which borders Egypt. These expansion plans, like prior ones, have seen widespread condemnation from both pro and anti-Israeli nations. This condemnation is primarily based on the alarming number of deaths and casualties stemming from the ground invasion; the growing humanitarian crisis, which has become more acute as the Israeli invasion has expanded; and the vast number of Palestinian refugees which are reportedly taking refuge in the city having fled from Northern Gaza.\n\nIsrael has already [commenced airstrikes and covert raids in Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), but a full-scale ground invasion has yet to commence.\n\nAmongst the nations who have condemned the plans are the US - Israel's closest ally - and Egypt - Gaza's Southern neighbour which [has threatened](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/11/egypt-threatens-to-suspend-key-peace-treaty-if-israel-pushes-into-rafah-on-its-border-officials-say.html) to break it's 45 year old peace treaty with Israel if the ground invasion plans commence in Rafah.\n\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to state that an invasion is imminent and that Israel has a specific date set, though on April 9 it [was reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/israel-defense-gallant-deny-rafah-invasion-date) that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said there is no date set.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) before June 1, 2024.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1VCJMA9AH4k8G6v33Yr6z254_umiNe4Q&ehbc=2E312F\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"}}>\n</iframe>", "fine_print": "* Israeli military operations will be considered to be both of the following, or any similar entries added to the map:\n * \"Reported Israeli clearing operations\"\n * \"Claimed furthest Israeli advances\"\n* If Metaculus has reason to believe that the ISW map is no longer being updated or maintained the question will be **annulled**.\n* The coordinates of the six locations are as follows:\n 1. 31°18'57.5\"N 34°14'14.0\"E (Taiba Mosque)\n 2. 31°18'44.8\"N 34°15'04.9\"E (Helmi Saqr Sultan Mosque)\n 3. 31°18'18.2\"N 34°15'40.0\"E\n 4. 31°17'31.8\"N 34°16'21.0\"E\n 5. 31°16'24.3\"N 34°16'23.2\"E\n 6. 31°15'41.0\"N 34°15'29.8\"E", "post_id": 22298, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715697024.301593, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 235, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715697024.301593, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 235, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9602649536745084 ], "histogram": [ [ 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Recently, Israel has [stated its intentions to expand its invasion to the Southern city of Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), which borders Egypt. These expansion plans, like prior ones, have seen widespread condemnation from both pro and anti-Israeli nations. This condemnation is primarily based on the alarming number of deaths and casualties stemming from the ground invasion; the growing humanitarian crisis, which has become more acute as the Israeli invasion has expanded; and the vast number of Palestinian refugees which are reportedly taking refuge in the city having fled from Northern Gaza.\n\nIsrael has already [commenced airstrikes and covert raids in Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), but a full-scale ground invasion has yet to commence.\n\nAmongst the nations who have condemned the plans are the US - Israel's closest ally - and Egypt - Gaza's Southern neighbour which [has threatened](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/11/egypt-threatens-to-suspend-key-peace-treaty-if-israel-pushes-into-rafah-on-its-border-officials-say.html) to break it's 45 year old peace treaty with Israel if the ground invasion plans commence in Rafah.\n\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to state that an invasion is imminent and that Israel has a specific date set, though on April 9 it [was reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/israel-defense-gallant-deny-rafah-invasion-date) that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said there is no date set." }, { "id": 22245, "title": "Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?", "short_title": "Nebraska EVs allocated WTA in 2024?", "url_title": "Nebraska EVs allocated WTA in 2024?", "slug": "nebraska-evs-allocated-wta-in-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-10T03:54:02.246062Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.850770Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T12:00:00Z", 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"spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T16:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T21:08:09.465478Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In US presidential elections, Nebraska is unusual in that it does not automatically award all of its Electoral College votes to the state-wide winner. Instead, it awards two of its five electoral votes to the state-wide winner, and one vote to the winner of each of its three Congressional districts. Nebraska has used this method [since 1992.](https://www.270towin.com/content/split-electoral-votes-maine-and-nebraska/) The only other state that currently allocates its electoral votes in this manner is Maine.\n\nWhile two of [Nebraska's Congressional districts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_congressional_districts?useskin=vector) are strongly Republican, its [2nd district](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_2nd_congressional_district?useskin=vector), concentrated around Omaha and its suburbs, is highly competitive, and [in 2023](https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2023-partisan-voting-index/118-district-map-and-list) had a [Cook Partisan Voting Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index?useskin=vector) of EVEN. In the [2022 midterms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Nebraska?useskin=vector), Republican Don Bacon won the district by less than three points. \n\nIn the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector#Results_by_state), Donald Trump won NE-02 by 2.24 points; but in [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector#Results_by_state), the district flipped, and Joe Biden won by 6.5 points.\n\nIn certain scenarios, Nebraska's 2nd district could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.\n\n For example, if incumbent president Joe Biden were to retain the three Rust Belt battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but lose the three Sun Belt battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, and the rest of the electoral map were to remain unchanged from 2020, without Nebraska's 2nd district, Biden would have 269 electoral votes, one shy of the 270 needed to win an Electoral College majority. Winning NE-02 again would secure victory in this scenario; but failing to win it would result in a [contingent election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election?useskin=vector)\n\nAs of April 2024, there are [efforts underway](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/07/trump-nebraska-electoral-college/73229967007/) to have Nebraska revert to winner-take-all electoral vote allocation. Former president and Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump has called on the state to revert to WTA allocation, and Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen has [urged the state legislature](https://twitter.com/TeamPillen/status/1777882507544793455) to pass a bill to that effect in an as-yet uncalled special legislative session: \n\n>I am steadfast in my commitment to get winner-take-all over the finish line, thereby honoring our constitutional founding, unifying our state and ending the three-decades-old mistake of allocating Nebraska's electoral votes differently than all but one other state.\n\n>Although it is now clear that WTA cannot pass during the regular legislative session, I look forward to partnering with legislative leaders to moving it forward in a special session, when there is sufficient support in the Legislature to pass it.\n\n>I will sign WTA into law the moment the Legislature gets it to my desk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if in the 2024 United States presidential election, according to legislation, an official statement from election officials, or [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports, the state of Nebraska allocates its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis as a matter of law, regardless of the performance of each candidate in each of its Congressional districts. \n\nThe question resolves as **No** if this does not occur.", "fine_print": "Whether Nebraska's electors actually cast their votes as instructed, i.e., whether they are faithful or faithless, is immaterial to the resolution of this question. This question concerns only whether Nebraska's electoral votes are, as a matter of law, allocated on a winner-take-all basis.", "post_id": 22245, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730030640.374289, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730030640.374289, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.007852022217241397 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.454579414472233, 2.622735473226655, 0.0, 0.2272879045894189, 0.0, 0.11400131221168269, 0.10034559348601702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.73973764727232, "peer_score": 2.651746783876698, "coverage": 0.9996556023457532, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996556023457532, "spot_peer_score": 2.008320213654052, "baseline_archived_score": 93.73973764727232, "peer_archived_score": 2.651746783876698, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.008320213654052 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287851.957507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287851.957507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993533151996419, 0.0006466848003581221 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In US presidential elections, Nebraska is unusual in that it does not automatically award all of its Electoral College votes to the state-wide winner. Instead, it awards two of its five electoral votes to the state-wide winner, and one vote to the winner of each of its three Congressional districts. Nebraska has used this method [since 1992.](https://www.270towin.com/content/split-electoral-votes-maine-and-nebraska/) The only other state that currently allocates its electoral votes in this manner is Maine.\n\nWhile two of [Nebraska's Congressional districts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_congressional_districts?useskin=vector) are strongly Republican, its [2nd district](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_2nd_congressional_district?useskin=vector), concentrated around Omaha and its suburbs, is highly competitive, and [in 2023](https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2023-partisan-voting-index/118-district-map-and-list) had a [Cook Partisan Voting Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index?useskin=vector) of EVEN. In the [2022 midterms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Nebraska?useskin=vector), Republican Don Bacon won the district by less than three points. \n\nIn the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector#Results_by_state), Donald Trump won NE-02 by 2.24 points; but in [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector#Results_by_state), the district flipped, and Joe Biden won by 6.5 points.\n\nIn certain scenarios, Nebraska's 2nd district could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.\n\n For example, if incumbent president Joe Biden were to retain the three Rust Belt battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but lose the three Sun Belt battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, and the rest of the electoral map were to remain unchanged from 2020, without Nebraska's 2nd district, Biden would have 269 electoral votes, one shy of the 270 needed to win an Electoral College majority. Winning NE-02 again would secure victory in this scenario; but failing to win it would result in a [contingent election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election?useskin=vector)\n\nAs of April 2024, there are [efforts underway](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/07/trump-nebraska-electoral-college/73229967007/) to have Nebraska revert to winner-take-all electoral vote allocation. Former president and Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump has called on the state to revert to WTA allocation, and Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen has [urged the state legislature](https://twitter.com/TeamPillen/status/1777882507544793455) to pass a bill to that effect in an as-yet uncalled special legislative session: \n\n>I am steadfast in my commitment to get winner-take-all over the finish line, thereby honoring our constitutional founding, unifying our state and ending the three-decades-old mistake of allocating Nebraska's electoral votes differently than all but one other state.\n\n>Although it is now clear that WTA cannot pass during the regular legislative session, I look forward to partnering with legislative leaders to moving it forward in a special session, when there is sufficient support in the Legislature to pass it.\n\n>I will sign WTA into law the moment the Legislature gets it to my desk." }, { "id": 22168, "title": "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?", "short_title": "RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22?", "url_title": "RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22?", "slug": "rfk-jr-to-drop-out-by-oct-22", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-07T21:23:20.311288Z", "published_at": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.887677Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T19:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-21T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22168, "title": "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-07T21:23:20.311288Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-15T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-21T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T19:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T19:18:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of April 7 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 10.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $70 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on or before October 22, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his campaign officially announces that he has suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended his 2024 campaign for the office of President of the United States.", "fine_print": "An announced suspension of campaigning that is intended or expected (according to either a candidate/campaign statement or credible media reports) to be temporary (e.g. in the case of a personal or general emergency, etc) shall not count; only a permanent 'suspension' that is tantamount to the termination of the campaign suffices.\n\nHowever, if a suspension that is intended or expected to be temporary becomes (according to an official statement from Kennedy or his campaign) a permanent suspension without the campaign having been resumed, the date of Kennedy's campaign suspension should be taken to be the date the suspension initially began.\n\nAny revival of a campaign after a permanent 'suspension' or termination of a campaign shall be immaterial to resolution of this question.", "post_id": 22168, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724442418.153645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724442418.153645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9851240269152914 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0009660177842960614, 0.00020590647817486253, 0.0003227609056870134, 0.0, 0.0007681975038966764, 0.0024395235461833597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004714670427999434, 0.0, 0.0006583256623226762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007110331241778366, 0.0003927500432777607, 0.0007172193076884906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014276721700805746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001339973909817788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00466364638665728, 0.0002607312162157457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005032008557371699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010255387381884256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001636076046206177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00771377664606758, 0.0, 0.004135742170104737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044671270489441035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26370898050540553, 0.0, 0.00172077095989845, 0.008707889412989014, 0.0, 0.032530673332192755, 0.021177014631405623, 0.19385706837950792, 0.04633350198297515, 0.05202547073419633, 0.5654400788495162, 0.08901505268017001, 0.14311815425017912, 0.9095843486938924, 17.054157352296734 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 33.88102926379595, "coverage": 0.6944473557114986, "baseline_score": -97.30646910910632, "spot_peer_score": 113.94092953255037, "peer_archived_score": 33.88102926379595, "baseline_archived_score": -97.30646910910632, "spot_peer_archived_score": 113.94092953255037 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724422876.011453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724422876.011453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.038265065010393395, 0.9617349349896066 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 491, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of April 7 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 10.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $70 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates." }, { "id": 22161, "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024?", "url_title": "Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024?", "slug": "iran-deadly-attack-on-israel-before-may-2024", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-07T03:50:41.923235Z", "published_at": "2024-04-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": 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"type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22161, "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-07T03:50:41.923235Z", "open_time": "2024-04-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-11T02:00:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-11T02:00:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T17:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T17:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-01T17:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 1, 2024, an Israeli airstrike [targeted the Iranian embassy](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240) in Damascus, Syria, resulting in significant casualties including the deaths of top Iranian commanders. \n\nIn the aftermath, the United States has increased its security posture in the region, anticipating a retaliatory strike by Iran against Israeli or American assets. Senior U.S. and Israeli officials [consider such an attack \"inevitable.\"](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/politics/us-israel-iran-retaliation-strike/index.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:\n\n1. Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n4. The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 22161, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714545907.705882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 472, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714545907.705882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 472, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.019246514059172853 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.434542992017995, 21.099279168350442, 1.2219456837513203, 1.5212737020326956, 0.5069786091850124, 1.1714215015414349, 0.7087804264382623, 1.0882112900918068, 0.2937122915180936, 0.009970593496909909, 0.1976206397933602, 0.003230907245926424, 0.0034525189080444455, 0.0029961738920438593, 0.005361811199465481, 0.006587805556757522, 3.304342567914185e-06, 0.0002965357030806697, 0.0822306327677854, 0.0, 0.02399898201501449, 0.004062790700040915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003471451134050251, 0.00121038080522445, 0.005852870349139725, 0.0, 0.00028310999073286204, 0.0, 0.004695785924777903, 0.0937333479929266, 4.251171522606372e-09, 0.009092189002815648, 3.484028603648286e-07, 0.0944892166108255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26044864041673954, 0.0008861515913157155, 0.0, 3.584036845620279e-05, 0.0, 2.0440526798217706e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017030542758554547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.639954717543928e-05, 0.03335439708579379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004637067920232992, 0.006395063068337951, 0.0, 9.81617229263954e-05, 0.0, 0.006829949158144936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.677663228448605e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006732755474461427, 0.016877793777148434, 0.000246252502038393, 0.003261523105616613, 1.1644016196501588e-06, 0.0, 7.579092235437038e-07, 0.00021197084401551643, 2.65951557854345e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 8.642408965648907e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01647353220231057, 0.0001156781825027241, 5.729482575395638e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 7.055654443006722e-05, 0.00012033008910538904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015715934825795328 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 34.161995555693025, "coverage": 0.9999709886205163, "baseline_score": 83.13923661856278, "spot_peer_score": 24.218407930918513, "peer_archived_score": 34.161995555693025, "baseline_archived_score": 83.13923661856278, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.218407930918513 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714545907.800786, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 472, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714545907.800786, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 472, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 31, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1956, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 1, 2024, an Israeli airstrike [targeted the Iranian embassy](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240) in Damascus, Syria, resulting in significant casualties including the deaths of top Iranian commanders. \n\nIn the aftermath, the United States has increased its security posture in the region, anticipating a retaliatory strike by Iran against Israeli or American assets. Senior U.S. and Israeli officials [consider such an attack \"inevitable.\"](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/politics/us-israel-iran-retaliation-strike/index.html)" }, { "id": 22150, "title": "Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?", "short_title": "U.S. population > China before 2200?", "url_title": "U.S. population > China before 2200?", "slug": "us-population-china-before-2200", "author_id": 145845, "author_username": "christian.q.chung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-06T03:12:13.698979Z", "published_at": "2024-04-15T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:22:32.399076Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-15T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2200-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-15T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22150, "title": "Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?", "created_at": "2024-04-06T03:12:13.698979Z", "open_time": "2024-04-15T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-18T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2200-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2200-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2023, the population of the United States and the People's Republic of China (China) stood at 0.33 billion and 1.41 billion respectively. However, China's population [fell by roughly 2 million in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term-growth-concerns-2024-01-17/), indicating a faster decline in population than previously projected. [New population projections](https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377) estimate that by 2100, China's population [could fall by as much as 70%](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/) to less than 500 million people in the worst case scenario.\n\nComparatively massive population declines are not limited to China; South Korea has seen repeated downward adjustments to population, a recent estimate being a [70% decline by 2100](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/south-koreas-demographic-trends-continue-to-decline/).\n\nIn contrast, the population of the U.S. has [continued to rise](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html), though at a slower pace compared to previous decades. The official census estimates that [the U.S. population will peak at 370 million in 2080](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if at any point before January 1, 2200, the population of the United States is greater than the population of China according to data from the World Bank.\n\nThe population figure for the United States will be resolved using the World Bank's \"Population, total\" page for the U.S., which can be accessed [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?contextual=default&locations=US). The population figure for China will be resolved using the World Bank's corresponding page for that country, which can be accessed [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?contextual=default&locations=CN).", "fine_print": "Should the resolution pages move or otherwise change, this question will resolve using the World Bank's most direct successor page using equivalent data for total population for each country. \n\nIf either the U.S. or China cease to exist without a successor state which unambiguously retains control of virtually all previous territories held before dissolution, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nIf the World Bank ceases to exist before 2200, a comparably established global institution can replace the World Bank. In the event that no such global institution exists, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nIn the event that either the U.S. or China annex or lose significant amounts of populated territory, the World Bank population estimates will still be used regardless of conflicts with de facto or de jure borders.\n\nIf, before the resolution date, the World Bank or a replacement organization ceases publishing total population figures for countries or changes its methodology so substantially that Metaculus Admins deem it inappropriate to continue as a resolution source for this question, then Metaculus Admins may select other sources that produce similar estimates, such as the United Nations or its successor. If no such equivalent can be found then this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 22150, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757640141.997002, "end_time": 1789176143.564, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.183 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757640141.997002, "end_time": 1789176143.564, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.183 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.1580858577773973 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0941681173036915, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287227.695764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287227.695764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9075766436882684, 0.09242335631173162 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2023, the population of the United States and the People's Republic of China (China) stood at 0.33 billion and 1.41 billion respectively. However, China's population [fell by roughly 2 million in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term-growth-concerns-2024-01-17/), indicating a faster decline in population than previously projected. [New population projections](https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377) estimate that by 2100, China's population [could fall by as much as 70%](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/) to less than 500 million people in the worst case scenario.\n\nComparatively massive population declines are not limited to China; South Korea has seen repeated downward adjustments to population, a recent estimate being a [70% decline by 2100](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/south-koreas-demographic-trends-continue-to-decline/).\n\nIn contrast, the population of the U.S. has [continued to rise](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html), though at a slower pace compared to previous decades. The official census estimates that [the U.S. population will peak at 370 million in 2080](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html)." }, { "id": 22149, "title": "Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024?", "short_title": "Powerball Won Before April 15, 2024?", "url_title": "Powerball Won Before April 15, 2024?", "slug": "powerball-won-before-april-15-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-05T20:17:21.527197Z", "published_at": "2024-04-05T22:17:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.205916Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-05T22:17:31.747207Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-07T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-13T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-13T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T06:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T22:17:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22149, "title": "Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-05T20:17:21.527197Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T22:17:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-06T17:15:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-06T17:15:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-13T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T06:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-07T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-13T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-07T06:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Powerball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball) is a US lottery operated by the [Multi-State Lottery Association](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-State_Lottery_Association). Drawings are held [every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday](https://ialottery.com/Pages/Games/DrawingTimes.aspx). The [last time the jackpot was won](https://www.powerball.net/winners) was on January 1, 2024, and since then the jackpot has grown to a value of approximately $1.3 billion, the [fourth largest](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/lottery/2024/04/05/powerball-drawing-lottery-jackpot/73214381007/) Powerball jackpot in history and the [eighth largest](https://www.npr.org/2024/04/04/1242720091/powerball-jackpot-no-winner) US lottery jackpot in history.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 5, 2024, and before April 15, 2024, credible sources report that there was at least one winning ticket drawn in the Powerball jackpot.", "fine_print": "The winner must be for the \"[Grand Prize](https://www.powerball.com/powerball-prize-chart)\".", "post_id": 22149, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712492133.628222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.84 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712492133.628222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.84 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.16000000000000003, 0.84 ], "means": [ 0.6989818160127742 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9111019806310228, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14834439140905845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3253517430168777 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.333703458915937, "coverage": 0.16021741197979775, "baseline_score": 0.18408310999016378, "spot_peer_score": 26.08412688803279, "peer_archived_score": 5.333703458915937, "baseline_archived_score": 0.18408310999016378, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.08412688803279 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712471290.689746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712471290.689746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7077007661674459, 0.2922992338325541 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Powerball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball) is a US lottery operated by the [Multi-State Lottery Association](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-State_Lottery_Association). Drawings are held [every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday](https://ialottery.com/Pages/Games/DrawingTimes.aspx). The [last time the jackpot was won](https://www.powerball.net/winners) was on January 1, 2024, and since then the jackpot has grown to a value of approximately $1.3 billion, the [fourth largest](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/lottery/2024/04/05/powerball-drawing-lottery-jackpot/73214381007/) Powerball jackpot in history and the [eighth largest](https://www.npr.org/2024/04/04/1242720091/powerball-jackpot-no-winner) US lottery jackpot in history.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*" }, { "id": 22148, "title": "Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament?", "short_title": "Caitlin Clark wins Most Outstanding Player?", "url_title": "Caitlin Clark wins Most Outstanding Player?", "slug": "caitlin-clark-wins-most-outstanding-player", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-05T20:08:03.031695Z", "published_at": "2024-04-05T20:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.113646Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-05T20:25:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-07T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-07T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T21:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T21:28:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T20:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22148, "title": "Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament?", "created_at": "2024-04-05T20:08:03.031695Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T20:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-06T00:58:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-06T00:58:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T21:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T21:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-07T21:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-07T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-07T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During the 2023-2024 season, Iowa senior Caitlin Clark became the [top scorer in college basketball history](https://bigten.org/news/2024/3/3/womens-basketball-caitlin-clark-becomes-the-ncaas-all-time-leading-scorer.aspx#:~:text=%E2%80%93%20Iowa%20senior%20Caitlin%20Clark%20scored,left%20in%20the%20second%20quarter.).\n\nThe award for Most Outstanding Player in the NCAA tournament is awarded following the conclusion of the championship game, based on a vote from media members. Typically the winning player is a member of the championship team, but not always. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_basketball_tournament_Most_Outstanding_Player):\n\n> Ten men and one woman have won the award despite not winning the championship. The last man to do so was Akeem Olajuwon in 1983 and Dawn Staley was the only woman to do so when she won the award in 1991.\n\nClark and the Iowa Hawkeyes [face UConn](https://www.ncaa.com/game/6284828) in the Final Four.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if [Caitlin Clark](https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4433403/caitlin-clark) is named the NCAA Division I women's tournament [Most Outstanding Player](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_basketball_tournament_Most_Outstanding_Player) at the conclusion of the [2024 championship game](https://www.ncaa.com/womens-di-championship?mml=1&cid=ncaa_mml_nav_women).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22148, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712508867.863897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712508867.863897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.8623617154349799 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5128863128011775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7228487183092426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2659211825430975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29360034512635746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11064264398533052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3958428814631259, 0.007369969155267514, 0.19512018820526095, 0.03598851855808508, 0.42855776383303873, 0.7337861142726865, 0.7852188658668618, 0.0, 0.7377835219454945, 4.908997426109249 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -10.314406231632969, "coverage": 0.9996137666368108, "baseline_score": -354.3666215236335, "spot_peer_score": 81.9848261697624, "peer_archived_score": -10.314406231632969, "baseline_archived_score": -354.3666215236335, "spot_peer_archived_score": 81.9848261697624 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712508867.888916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712508867.888916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06757003242093429, 0.9324299675790657 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During the 2023-2024 season, Iowa senior Caitlin Clark became the [top scorer in college basketball history](https://bigten.org/news/2024/3/3/womens-basketball-caitlin-clark-becomes-the-ncaas-all-time-leading-scorer.aspx#:~:text=%E2%80%93%20Iowa%20senior%20Caitlin%20Clark%20scored,left%20in%20the%20second%20quarter.).\n\nThe award for Most Outstanding Player in the NCAA tournament is awarded following the conclusion of the championship game, based on a vote from media members. Typically the winning player is a member of the championship team, but not always. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_basketball_tournament_Most_Outstanding_Player):\n\n> Ten men and one woman have won the award despite not winning the championship. The last man to do so was Akeem Olajuwon in 1983 and Dawn Staley was the only woman to do so when she won the award in 1991.\n\nClark and the Iowa Hawkeyes [face UConn](https://www.ncaa.com/game/6284828) in the Final Four.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*" }, { "id": 22146, "title": "Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?", "short_title": "Will Mitt Romney endorse a Democrat in 2024?", "url_title": "Will Mitt Romney endorse a Democrat in 2024?", "slug": "will-mitt-romney-endorse-a-democrat-in-2024", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-05T06:53:22.404270Z", "published_at": "2024-04-11T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.453690Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-11T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T12:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-11T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22146, "title": "Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-05T06:53:22.404270Z", "open_time": "2024-04-11T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-14T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-14T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T12:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-11T12:33:20.727015Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US Republican Senator Mitt Romney has [ruled out](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/29/mitt-romney-vote-trump-biden/72787644007/) voting for the presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, but has to date [stopped short](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/11/mitt-romney-joe-biden-knocks-donald-trump/71876893007/) of explicitly endorsing an alternative. Will he change this, and endorse the Democratic nominee?", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if 3 high quality national or international news sources (e.g. Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times, Washington Post, or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) report that Mitt Romney has publicly endorsed the Democratic nominee for President in 2024, prior to the election taking place.\n\nReports which describe Romney as \"publicly endorsing\" the Democratic nominee or similar should suffice, or reports which include quotes from Romney saying unambiguously that he intends to vote for the Democratic nominee.\n\nReports that he has told people privately that he will vote for the Democratic nominee should not count for the purpose of this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22146, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730364574.94338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0698638856 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730364574.94338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0698638856 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.041578357864683654 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.1062133968041494, 1.5865825018538697, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 1.3578455606019701, 0.17692120631776415, 1.178544441962909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4754349552989057, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.59880010621127, "peer_score": 20.507709252842684, "coverage": 0.9996711079275367, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996711079275367, "spot_peer_score": 32.00436087926784, "baseline_archived_score": 91.59880010621127, "peer_archived_score": 20.507709252842684, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.00436087926784 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287339.348838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287339.348838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9917646411799923, 0.008235358820007662 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US Republican Senator Mitt Romney has [ruled out](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/29/mitt-romney-vote-trump-biden/72787644007/) voting for the presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, but has to date [stopped short](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/11/mitt-romney-joe-biden-knocks-donald-trump/71876893007/) of explicitly endorsing an alternative. Will he change this, and endorse the Democratic nominee?" }, { "id": 22142, "title": "Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024?", "short_title": "Intuitive Machines' lander working in 2024", "url_title": "Intuitive Machines' lander working in 2024", "slug": "intuitive-machines-lander-working-in-2024", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-04T18:45:35.823247Z", "published_at": "2024-05-18T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.025121Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-18T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T23:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-18T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22142, "title": "Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-04T18:45:35.823247Z", "open_time": "2024-05-18T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-21T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T23:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:40:41.996387Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After two slow decades at the beginning of the 21st century, the rate of missions to the Moon [has significantly accelerated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#21st_century_uncrewed_soft_landings_and_attempts). Two missions have already landed on the Moon in 2024 and many more are planned.\n\nOne of them was Intuitive Machines' Nova-C lander, which was the first made by a commercial company to land on the Moon, during the IM-1 mission. An obstacle was however encountered and the satellite stumbled on its side. A new mission is planned for this year with the same lander class that plans to deliver NASA payloads.\n\nAmong the payloads are a [mass spectrometer, a rover and a drill](https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/the-im-2-moon-mission-will-carry-a-blend-of-science-and-art/) that will search the lunar South Pole for water ice.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, an Intuitive Machines lander has perfectly landed and the payload is delivered in a fully working state on the Moon. Otherwise resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, a perfect landing will be defined as one which results in the lander remaining intact, in its intended position, able to communicate with the Earth, and which does not prevent its payload from being able to carry out its intended mission.\n\nThe lander must land before January 1, 2025, 00:00 UTC occurs on Earth. Resolution will be determined based on information published before January 30, 2025.\n\nEvery one of the payloads must be able to work as intended for at least 24 hours. A payload that would not fulfill this previous criteria will not be considered if at least another party than Intuitive Machines takes responsibility for this failure. If Intuitive Machines recognizes any responsibility in this failure, the landing will not count for positive resolution.", "post_id": 22142, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735313334.237623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735313334.237623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.044652178354142404 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.303154948486498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -6.062064368627286, "peer_score": 50.64244922870938, "coverage": 0.999118965024473, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999118965024473, "spot_peer_score": 155.67576546051865, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": -6.062064368627286, "peer_archived_score": 50.64244922870938, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 155.67576546051865, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289753.865855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289753.865855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8880517739886169, 0.1119482260113831 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After two slow decades at the beginning of the 21st century, the rate of missions to the Moon [has significantly accelerated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#21st_century_uncrewed_soft_landings_and_attempts). Two missions have already landed on the Moon in 2024 and many more are planned.\n\nOne of them was Intuitive Machines' Nova-C lander, which was the first made by a commercial company to land on the Moon, during the IM-1 mission. An obstacle was however encountered and the satellite stumbled on its side. A new mission is planned for this year with the same lander class that plans to deliver NASA payloads.\n\nAmong the payloads are a [mass spectrometer, a rover and a drill](https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/the-im-2-moon-mission-will-carry-a-blend-of-science-and-art/) that will search the lunar South Pole for water ice." }, { "id": 22140, "title": "Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?", "short_title": "2024 electoral college majority?", "url_title": "2024 electoral college majority?", "slug": "2024-electoral-college-majority", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-04T02:46:57.658256Z", "published_at": "2024-04-10T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.312720Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-10T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-18T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-10T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22140, "title": "Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?", "created_at": "2024-04-04T02:46:57.658256Z", "open_time": "2024-04-10T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-18T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T20:20:15.214844Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States. \n\nThe election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) (electors) who then cast votes for the President and Vice President.\n\nThe electors [are scheduled to meet](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates) on December 17, 2024. If no majority is reached the President will be determined by Congress.\n\nSince the inception of the United States, only [2 elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_Electoral_College_margin) have resulted in no electoral college majority.\n\nSee also: \n\n- The Hill: [What if no candidate wins 270 electoral votes?](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4502438-what-if-no-candidate-wins-270-electoral-votes/)\n\n- 270ToWin: [Electoral College Ties](https://www.270towin.com/content/electoral-college-ties/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if any single candidate receives an absolute majority of the Electoral College votes cast in the 2024 United States presidential election. If no one receives an absolute majority of Electoral College votes cast, this question will resolve **No**.\n\nThis question will resolve on the date the electors cast their votes.", "fine_print": "Specifically, according to the rules as of April 2024, if any candidate receives 270 Electoral College votes or greater, not including a tie where two candidates receive 269 votes, this question will resolve yes.\n\nFaithless electors will be counted as they actually vote, not based on their states results.\n\nIf the number of votes in the Electoral College changes before they cast their votes, this question will still resolve based on an absolute majority, not 270.\n\nIf the 2024 United States presidential election is not held or if the electoral college does not cast their votes by February 1, 2025 this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n\nIf there is a dispute about who the electors are, or what their votes are this question will resolve based on how congress counts the votes, if congress does not count the votes by February 1, 2025 this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.", "post_id": 22140, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730689965.034409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730689965.034409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9869759452987529 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052917423781649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6199497203478274, 0.06984569336479438, 0.9244383481296953, 2.1419803364427494, 7.505688104130086 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.03640611672199, "peer_score": 2.0705429599649117, "coverage": 0.9999988332271063, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999988332271063, "spot_peer_score": 21.25390004397392, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 98.03640611672199, "peer_archived_score": 2.0705429599649117, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.25390004397392, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288136.481735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288136.481735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.017282360154867837, 0.9827176398451322 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States. \n\nThe election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) (electors) who then cast votes for the President and Vice President.\n\nThe electors [are scheduled to meet](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates) on December 17, 2024. If no majority is reached the President will be determined by Congress.\n\nSince the inception of the United States, only [2 elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_Electoral_College_margin) have resulted in no electoral college majority.\n\nSee also: \n\n- The Hill: [What if no candidate wins 270 electoral votes?](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4502438-what-if-no-candidate-wins-270-electoral-votes/)\n\n- 270ToWin: [Electoral College Ties](https://www.270towin.com/content/electoral-college-ties/)" }, { "id": 22116, "title": "Will there be a university outside the US and UK in the top 5 of the QS World University Rankings before 2030?", "short_title": "Non US and UK university in top5 QS by 2030", "url_title": "Non US and UK university in top5 QS by 2030", "slug": "non-us-and-uk-university-in-top5-qs-by-2030", "author_id": 172441, "author_username": "claptar", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-30T12:29:26.328289Z", "published_at": "2024-04-06T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.174351Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-06T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-06T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22116, "title": "Will there be a university outside the US and UK in the top 5 of the QS World University Rankings before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-30T12:29:26.328289Z", "open_time": "2024-04-06T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-09T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-09T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**QS World University Rankings:**\n\nThe QS World University Rankings is a prominent ranking system for universities globally.\nIt considers various factors like academic reputation, employer reputation, faculty-student ratio, research citations, and international student population.\nCurrently (as of March 2024), US and UK universities dominate the top positions, with strong contenders from Switzerland (specifically ETH Zurich) and Singapore entering the top 10 in [world rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/world-university-rankings). \n\nThese established institutions benefit from:\n\n- Deeply entrenched reputations: Universities like Oxford, Cambridge, and Harvard have centuries of prestige and a global network of successful alumni.\n- Strong research output: These institutions consistently produce high-quality research, which is a key factor in the QS rankings.\n- Attractive environments: They offer top-notch facilities, competitive faculty salaries, and vibrant student life, attracting top talent from around the world.\n\n**The Rise of Asian Powerhouses:**\n\nHowever, the landscape is shifting. Several universities in Asia, particularly in China, Singapore, and Japan, have been steadily climbing the QS rankings in recent years. This rise can be attributed to several factors:\n\n- Government investment: Many Asian governments are pouring significant resources into their higher education systems, aiming to create world-class universities.\n- Research focus: There's a growing emphasis on research output in these universities, leading to an increase in high-impact publications.\n- Internationalization efforts: Asian universities are actively recruiting international faculty and students, fostering a more diverse and globally connected learning environment.\n\n**Examples of Rising Stars:**\n\n- China: Tsinghua University, Peking University, and several others have seen significant improvements in the QS rankings, challenging the traditional dominance.\n- Singapore: National University of Singapore consistently ranks among the top universities in Asia and is a strong contender for the global top 10.\n- Switzerland: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich) is a prime example of a European non-UK institution that has consistently ranked high in the QS rankings, often in the top 10, due to its exceptional research and focus on science and technology.\n\n**Looking Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities**\n\nWhile the US and UK still hold a significant advantage, predicting the future is challenging due to several uncertainties:\n\n- Government policies: Future government funding priorities in different countries could significantly impact the trajectory of universities.\n- Evolving ranking methodologies: The QS rankings, and potentially other ranking systems, might incorporate new factors that could benefit certain universities over others.\n- Geopolitical landscape: Global political and economic trends could influence the attractiveness of different regions for international students and faculty.\n- Overall, there's a growing possibility of a university outside the US and UK reaching the top 5 of the QS rankings by 2030. The rise of Asian powerhouses, coupled with the continued strength of institutions like ETH Zurich, potential shifts in ranking methodologies and global trends, makes this an exciting time for higher education.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if an accredited college or university that is located outside the United Kingdom or United States is ranked in the top 5 of the QS World University Rankings by Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) for top global universities before calendar date January 1, 2030. The resolution source is available [here](https://www.topuniversities.com/world-university-rankings). \n\nThis question resolves as No if, upon release of the QS World University Rankings rankings top global universities for 2030, this specified event has not occurred.", "fine_print": "QS World University Rankings are generally published in June of the preceding year. For example, the rankings for 2024 were published on June 27, 2023. Therefore the rankings for 2030 are expected to be published in June 2029. If the specified event, an accredited college or university located outside the UK or US ranked in the top 5, has not occurred with those rankings, then this will resolve as No.\n\nIf the QS World University Rankings for the year 2030 have not been released before January 1, 2030, this question will automatically resolve as No, based on the latest rankings available on that date.\n\nThis question will be Annulled if no additional QS World University Rankings are published following the launch of this question or if QS discontinues its publication without a direct successor or equivalent ranking system being established.", "post_id": 22116, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749215258.670271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749215258.670271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.4739597842381506 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6129581021846703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 1.2198004484698002, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.565253950550936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288679.549067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288679.549067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8036796461939744, 0.19632035380602567 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**QS World University Rankings:**\n\nThe QS World University Rankings is a prominent ranking system for universities globally.\nIt considers various factors like academic reputation, employer reputation, faculty-student ratio, research citations, and international student population.\nCurrently (as of March 2024), US and UK universities dominate the top positions, with strong contenders from Switzerland (specifically ETH Zurich) and Singapore entering the top 10 in [world rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/world-university-rankings). \n\nThese established institutions benefit from:\n\n- Deeply entrenched reputations: Universities like Oxford, Cambridge, and Harvard have centuries of prestige and a global network of successful alumni.\n- Strong research output: These institutions consistently produce high-quality research, which is a key factor in the QS rankings.\n- Attractive environments: They offer top-notch facilities, competitive faculty salaries, and vibrant student life, attracting top talent from around the world.\n\n**The Rise of Asian Powerhouses:**\n\nHowever, the landscape is shifting. Several universities in Asia, particularly in China, Singapore, and Japan, have been steadily climbing the QS rankings in recent years. This rise can be attributed to several factors:\n\n- Government investment: Many Asian governments are pouring significant resources into their higher education systems, aiming to create world-class universities.\n- Research focus: There's a growing emphasis on research output in these universities, leading to an increase in high-impact publications.\n- Internationalization efforts: Asian universities are actively recruiting international faculty and students, fostering a more diverse and globally connected learning environment.\n\n**Examples of Rising Stars:**\n\n- China: Tsinghua University, Peking University, and several others have seen significant improvements in the QS rankings, challenging the traditional dominance.\n- Singapore: National University of Singapore consistently ranks among the top universities in Asia and is a strong contender for the global top 10.\n- Switzerland: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich) is a prime example of a European non-UK institution that has consistently ranked high in the QS rankings, often in the top 10, due to its exceptional research and focus on science and technology.\n\n**Looking Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities**\n\nWhile the US and UK still hold a significant advantage, predicting the future is challenging due to several uncertainties:\n\n- Government policies: Future government funding priorities in different countries could significantly impact the trajectory of universities.\n- Evolving ranking methodologies: The QS rankings, and potentially other ranking systems, might incorporate new factors that could benefit certain universities over others.\n- Geopolitical landscape: Global political and economic trends could influence the attractiveness of different regions for international students and faculty.\n- Overall, there's a growing possibility of a university outside the US and UK reaching the top 5 of the QS rankings by 2030. The rise of Asian powerhouses, coupled with the continued strength of institutions like ETH Zurich, potential shifts in ranking methodologies and global trends, makes this an exciting time for higher education." }, { "id": 22070, "title": "Will the U.S. FDA approve induced pluripotent stem cells for treatment of any medical condition before 2031?", "short_title": "induced pluripotent stem cells before 2031", "url_title": "induced pluripotent stem cells before 2031", "slug": "induced-pluripotent-stem-cells-before-2031", "author_id": 170434, "author_username": "kusainova7531", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-28T19:25:27.574469Z", "published_at": "2024-04-05T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-12T09:17:31.272081Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-05T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-05T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22070, "title": "Will the U.S. FDA approve induced pluripotent stem cells for treatment of any medical condition before 2031?", "created_at": "2024-03-28T19:25:27.574469Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-08T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-08T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells (iPSCs) are a type of stem cell that holds great promise in the field of regenerative medicine and research. \n\nHere's a breakdown of what makes iPSCs significant:\n\n1. **Pluripotency**: iPSCs are similar to embryonic stem cells (ESCs) in that they have the potential to differentiate into almost any cell type in the body. This pluripotency makes them valuable for studying development, disease modeling, and potentially for therapeutic applications.\n\n2. **Reprogramming**: The process of creating iPSCs involves reprogramming adult cells, typically skin cells or blood cells, back into a pluripotent state. This reprogramming is usually achieved by introducing a set of specific transcription factors into the adult cells. These factors effectively 'reset' the cell's identity, allowing it to regain pluripotency.\n\n3. **Ethical Considerations**: One of the significant advantages of iPSCs over embryonic stem cells is that they do not require the destruction of embryos. This aspect addresses many of the ethical concerns associated with ESC research.\n\n4. **Personalized Medicine**: iPSCs have the potential to revolutionize personalized medicine. Since they can be generated from a patient's own cells, there is less risk of immune rejection when these cells are used for transplantation or other therapeutic purposes. Additionally, iPSCs derived from patients with specific diseases can be used to model those diseases in the laboratory, facilitating drug discovery and the development of personalized treatments.\n\n5. **Challenges**: Despite their tremendous potential, iPSCs still face several challenges. These include the risk of tumorigenesis (formation of tumors) when iPSCs are used in transplantation therapies, the efficiency of the reprogramming process, and the need for further understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying pluripotency and differentiation.\n\n\nOverall, induced pluripotent stem cells represent a significant advancement in stem cell biology, offering new opportunities for both research and clinical applications in regenerative medicine.\n\nHere are a few articles that will give you a more comprehensive look at the issue: \n\n1. Ohnuki, M., & Takahashi, K. (2015). Present and future challenges of induced pluripotent stem cells. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 370(1680), 20140367. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0367\n\n2. Aboul‐Soud, M. a. M., Alzahrani, A. J., & Mahmoud, A. F. (2021). Induced Pluripotent stem cells (IPSCs)—Roles in regenerative therapies, disease modelling and drug screening. Cells, 10(9), 2319. https://doi.org/10.3390/cells10092319\n\n3. Yamanaka, S. (2012). Induced pluripotent stem cells: past, present, and future. Cell Stem Cell, 10(6), 678–684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.stem.2012.05.005", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before 2031 the FDA approves the technology for using induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) in human medicine (for example: tissue regeneration in transplantation, selection of personalized drug therapy). Any form of approval would count, including but not limited to conditional approval, emergency use authorization, and biologics license application. \n\nInduced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) are a type of pluripotent stem cell that can be generated directly from a somatic cell.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22070, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761509340.185875, "end_time": 1766054168.567114, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.243 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761509340.185875, "end_time": 1766054168.567114, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.243 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.2176726522911898 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288023.223767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288023.223767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.920315956996509, 0.07968404300349097 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells (iPSCs) are a type of stem cell that holds great promise in the field of regenerative medicine and research. \n\nHere's a breakdown of what makes iPSCs significant:\n\n1. **Pluripotency**: iPSCs are similar to embryonic stem cells (ESCs) in that they have the potential to differentiate into almost any cell type in the body. This pluripotency makes them valuable for studying development, disease modeling, and potentially for therapeutic applications.\n\n2. **Reprogramming**: The process of creating iPSCs involves reprogramming adult cells, typically skin cells or blood cells, back into a pluripotent state. This reprogramming is usually achieved by introducing a set of specific transcription factors into the adult cells. These factors effectively 'reset' the cell's identity, allowing it to regain pluripotency.\n\n3. **Ethical Considerations**: One of the significant advantages of iPSCs over embryonic stem cells is that they do not require the destruction of embryos. This aspect addresses many of the ethical concerns associated with ESC research.\n\n4. **Personalized Medicine**: iPSCs have the potential to revolutionize personalized medicine. Since they can be generated from a patient's own cells, there is less risk of immune rejection when these cells are used for transplantation or other therapeutic purposes. Additionally, iPSCs derived from patients with specific diseases can be used to model those diseases in the laboratory, facilitating drug discovery and the development of personalized treatments.\n\n5. **Challenges**: Despite their tremendous potential, iPSCs still face several challenges. These include the risk of tumorigenesis (formation of tumors) when iPSCs are used in transplantation therapies, the efficiency of the reprogramming process, and the need for further understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying pluripotency and differentiation.\n\n\nOverall, induced pluripotent stem cells represent a significant advancement in stem cell biology, offering new opportunities for both research and clinical applications in regenerative medicine.\n\nHere are a few articles that will give you a more comprehensive look at the issue: \n\n1. Ohnuki, M., & Takahashi, K. (2015). Present and future challenges of induced pluripotent stem cells. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 370(1680), 20140367. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0367\n\n2. Aboul‐Soud, M. a. M., Alzahrani, A. J., & Mahmoud, A. F. (2021). Induced Pluripotent stem cells (IPSCs)—Roles in regenerative therapies, disease modelling and drug screening. Cells, 10(9), 2319. https://doi.org/10.3390/cells10092319\n\n3. Yamanaka, S. (2012). Induced pluripotent stem cells: past, present, and future. Cell Stem Cell, 10(6), 678–684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.stem.2012.05.005" }, { "id": 22050, "title": "Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?", "short_title": "Tokyo Blossoms Full Bloom by April 5, 2024?", "url_title": "Tokyo Blossoms Full Bloom by April 5, 2024?", "slug": "tokyo-blossoms-full-bloom-by-april-5-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-27T14:17:05.643187Z", "published_at": "2024-03-27T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.249643Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-27T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T19:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-27T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22050, "title": "Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-03-27T14:17:05.643187Z", "open_time": "2024-03-27T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-28T10:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-28T10:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T19:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-04T19:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Cherry blossoms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_blossom) are often considered the unofficial national flower of Japan, and the spring blooming of the cherry blossoms is a [significant tourist attraction](https://www.japan.travel/en/au/experience/cherry-blossoms/). [According to Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/date-of-the-peak-cherry-tree-blossom-in-kyoto), the peak blooming period of the cherry blossoms in Kyoto has been shifting earlier in recent years as climate change produces warmer spring temperatures.\n\nThe [Japan Meteorological Corporation](https://n-kishou.com/corp/english/company/) (JMC) publishes cherry blossom forecasts as well as a \"[Flowering Meter](https://n-kishou.com/corp/news-contents/sakura/?lang=en#section03)\", tracking the progress of the cherry blossoms toward reaching full bloom in a number of Japanese cities.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 5, 2024, Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC) reports that cherry blossoms have reached 100% full bloom in Tokyo. Resolution will be determined according to whether JMC's \"[Flowering Meter](https://n-kishou.com/corp/news-contents/sakura/?lang=en#section03)\" shows that Tokyo has reached 100% full bloom in its most recent update (likely on April 4, 2024).", "fine_print": "If as of April 5, 2024, the latest date on the \"Flowering Meter\" is still March 28, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 22050, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712175668.853244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712175668.853244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9450938421800819 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06124341082421378, 0.39618411090454325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7104289439189292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023714766002371646, 0.0, 0.3669337095617011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33953082659674816, 0.29966330176672196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009514982201565289, 0.02704288263026733, 0.9234835805233972, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3784282562821966, 8.936729345292022 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.1769402600823975, "coverage": 0.9640112465830586, "baseline_score": 91.8578833054275, "spot_peer_score": 3.4002364557028577, "peer_archived_score": 5.1769402600823975, "baseline_archived_score": 91.8578833054275, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.4002364557028577 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712175668.884035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712175668.884035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01617505166871014, 0.9838249483312899 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Cherry blossoms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_blossom) are often considered the unofficial national flower of Japan, and the spring blooming of the cherry blossoms is a [significant tourist attraction](https://www.japan.travel/en/au/experience/cherry-blossoms/). [According to Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/date-of-the-peak-cherry-tree-blossom-in-kyoto), the peak blooming period of the cherry blossoms in Kyoto has been shifting earlier in recent years as climate change produces warmer spring temperatures.\n\nThe [Japan Meteorological Corporation](https://n-kishou.com/corp/english/company/) (JMC) publishes cherry blossom forecasts as well as a \"[Flowering Meter](https://n-kishou.com/corp/news-contents/sakura/?lang=en#section03)\", tracking the progress of the cherry blossoms toward reaching full bloom in a number of Japanese cities.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*" }, { "id": 22046, "title": "On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?", "short_title": "Cruise Ride-Hailing January 2026", "url_title": "Cruise Ride-Hailing January 2026", "slug": "cruise-ride-hailing-january-2026", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-27T05:54:34.900820Z", "published_at": "2024-03-28T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T20:49:23.042365Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-28T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-28T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3055, "type": "question_series", "name": "Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/uai-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-29T04:37:24Z", "close_date": "2036-09-01T04:37:24Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-12T04:37:24.745127Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:11:15.085537Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3055, "type": "question_series", "name": "Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/uai-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-29T04:37:24Z", "close_date": "2036-09-01T04:37:24Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-12T04:37:24.745127Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:11:15.085537Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22046, "title": "On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?", "created_at": "2024-03-27T05:54:34.900820Z", "open_time": "2024-03-28T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-31T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly).\n\nCruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy self-driving vehicles. In late October 2023, Cruise [suspended](https://apnews.com/article/cruise-robotaxi-suspends-operations-gm-73f27ef959afe1e201e61f0fd31802d5) all driverless operations nationwide after California regulators ordered the company to remove its driverless cars from state roads, citing safety concerns and accusing Cruise of misrepresenting the technology's capabilities.\n\nThe California Department of Motor Vehicles [stated](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statement-on-cruise-llc-suspension/) that Cruise's driverless vehicles posed \"an unreasonable risk to public safety\" and that the company had provided misleading information about the safety of its self-driving system. This move by regulators came after a series of incidents involving Cruise vehicles, including crashes caused by the vehicles' abrupt braking.\n\nAdditionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [is investigating](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/cruise-under-nhtsa-probe-into-autonomous-driving-pedestrian-injuries.html) multiple reports of Cruise self-driving cars engaging in inappropriately hard braking, resulting in collisions. The agency is seeking more information from Cruise regarding five new crash reports involving such incidents.\n\nCruise's suspension of driverless operations across the U.S. represents a major setback for the company and General Motors' ambitions in the autonomous vehicle space. The company has [stated](https://x.com/Cruise/status/1717707807460393022?s=20) that it would take time to examine its processes and rebuild public trust.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve \"Yes\" if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicate that rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Cruise are available to the general public anywhere in the United States on January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "- \"Rider-only\" means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.\n- \"Available to the general public\" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.\n- \"United States\" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia.", "post_id": 22046, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762362918.818164, "end_time": 1770071009.751, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762362918.818164, "end_time": 1770071009.751, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.010050648341378593 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.530547544524934, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22555941869977142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289289.043839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289289.043839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8984202706429518, 0.10157972935704822 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 172, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly).\n\nCruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy self-driving vehicles. In late October 2023, Cruise [suspended](https://apnews.com/article/cruise-robotaxi-suspends-operations-gm-73f27ef959afe1e201e61f0fd31802d5) all driverless operations nationwide after California regulators ordered the company to remove its driverless cars from state roads, citing safety concerns and accusing Cruise of misrepresenting the technology's capabilities.\n\nThe California Department of Motor Vehicles [stated](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statement-on-cruise-llc-suspension/) that Cruise's driverless vehicles posed \"an unreasonable risk to public safety\" and that the company had provided misleading information about the safety of its self-driving system. This move by regulators came after a series of incidents involving Cruise vehicles, including crashes caused by the vehicles' abrupt braking.\n\nAdditionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [is investigating](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/cruise-under-nhtsa-probe-into-autonomous-driving-pedestrian-injuries.html) multiple reports of Cruise self-driving cars engaging in inappropriately hard braking, resulting in collisions. The agency is seeking more information from Cruise regarding five new crash reports involving such incidents.\n\nCruise's suspension of driverless operations across the U.S. represents a major setback for the company and General Motors' ambitions in the autonomous vehicle space. The company has [stated](https://x.com/Cruise/status/1717707807460393022?s=20) that it would take time to examine its processes and rebuild public trust." }, { "id": 22037, "title": "Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "short_title": "India First 10 to Embryo Select for IQ?", "url_title": "India First 10 to Embryo Select for IQ?", "slug": "india-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 118874, "username": "stanulamstan" } ], "created_at": "2024-03-26T17:41:47.899827Z", "published_at": "2024-03-27T17:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.870414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-27T17:44:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-27T17:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22037, "title": "Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "created_at": "2024-03-26T17:41:47.899827Z", "open_time": "2024-03-27T17:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-30T17:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-30T17:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nIn a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Indians were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than any other population surveyed, and in fact were the only population surveyed where a majority of the population agreed with this view. Embryo selection through IVF has been [used in India as a fertility treatment.](https://www.hindustantimes.com/brand-post/millions-of-couples-in-india-to-benefit-from-a-i-driven-embryo-selection/story-Wp2roVv99QYJTrppprjoGK.html) Much like in China, India [bans embryo selection for gender](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preimplantation_genetic_diagnosis#India) out of fear that there would be disproportionate selection for men. Nonetheless, embryo selection against diseases is legal and practiced. India boasts a [thriving technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_technology_in_India). Though it is still a developing country, [its economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) is growing quickly.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if India is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22037, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726824996.123459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.152 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1788242012 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726824996.123459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.152 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1788242012 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.1579243905517326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6928808849301284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 1.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289822.993709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289822.993709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9331480733333637, 0.06685192666663628 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nIn a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Indians were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than any other population surveyed, and in fact were the only population surveyed where a majority of the population agreed with this view. Embryo selection through IVF has been [used in India as a fertility treatment.](https://www.hindustantimes.com/brand-post/millions-of-couples-in-india-to-benefit-from-a-i-driven-embryo-selection/story-Wp2roVv99QYJTrppprjoGK.html) Much like in China, India [bans embryo selection for gender](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preimplantation_genetic_diagnosis#India) out of fear that there would be disproportionate selection for men. Nonetheless, embryo selection against diseases is legal and practiced. India boasts a [thriving technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_technology_in_India). Though it is still a developing country, [its economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) is growing quickly." }, { "id": 21994, "title": "Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?", "short_title": "Maximum speed achieved by the spacecraft 2075", "url_title": "Maximum speed achieved by the spacecraft 2075", "slug": "maximum-speed-achieved-by-the-spacecraft-2075", "author_id": 171511, "author_username": "NaumovVD", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-23T17:00:45.069933Z", "published_at": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T19:32:48.030022Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-12-30T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21994, "title": "Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?", "created_at": "2024-03-23T17:00:45.069933Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-15T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-15T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-12-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2075-12-30T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In his article [Solar One: A Proposal for The First Crewed \nInterstellar Spacecraft](https://arxiv.org/format/2007.11474), Alberto Caballero describes the concept and design of a new type of spacecraft capable of reaching an average of 22% the speed of light. Can engineers make a spacecraft by 2075 that can achieve this goal?\n\nAccording to Caballero, a speed of 20% of light would be enough to reach the supposed habitable planets within just 20 years of flight, potentially unlocking a new era of interstellar exploration.\n\nThe fastest spacecraft as of now, the [Parker Solar Probe](https://www.space.com/41447-parker-solar-probe-fastest-spacecraft-ever.html), has reached speeds of about 192 km/s, which is approximately 0.064% of the speed of light. \n\nThe idea behind fast ships is to use the pressure of light, which travels unhindered through space. Light pressure can be generated by a powerful laser located on the Earth's surface, which will shine a beam of 100 GW [already achievable](https://laserstars.org/history/lasers.html) for sufficient time and with great focusing accuracy, contingent upon improvements in technologies. \n\nSuch spacecrafts can be sent to achieve all required information about surface of planets and the state of interstellar space. After reaching the destination it could be transformed to a [Fresnel lens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fresnel_imager) to focus the signal and then send information back to Earth.\n\nThis question is important because it explores the feasibility of these advancements in spacecraft speed, especially if these advancements can enable speeds ≥ 0.22c by 2075.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2076, a human-made spacecraft achieves a speed of at least 66,000 km/s or 0.22c (i.e., 0.22 times the speed of light) using the Sun's center of mass as its reference frame, as reported by NASA, the European Space Agency or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if no credible sources have confirmed the achievement of this speed by the resolution date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21994, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762198357.306378, "end_time": 1781896205.991, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762198357.306378, "end_time": 1781896205.991, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.19920500344841774 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3678794411714424, 1.842924195849962, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0822097325987572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290303.169236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290303.169236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9645690172380759, 0.03543098276192408 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In his article [Solar One: A Proposal for The First Crewed \nInterstellar Spacecraft](https://arxiv.org/format/2007.11474), Alberto Caballero describes the concept and design of a new type of spacecraft capable of reaching an average of 22% the speed of light. Can engineers make a spacecraft by 2075 that can achieve this goal?\n\nAccording to Caballero, a speed of 20% of light would be enough to reach the supposed habitable planets within just 20 years of flight, potentially unlocking a new era of interstellar exploration.\n\nThe fastest spacecraft as of now, the [Parker Solar Probe](https://www.space.com/41447-parker-solar-probe-fastest-spacecraft-ever.html), has reached speeds of about 192 km/s, which is approximately 0.064% of the speed of light. \n\nThe idea behind fast ships is to use the pressure of light, which travels unhindered through space. Light pressure can be generated by a powerful laser located on the Earth's surface, which will shine a beam of 100 GW [already achievable](https://laserstars.org/history/lasers.html) for sufficient time and with great focusing accuracy, contingent upon improvements in technologies. \n\nSuch spacecrafts can be sent to achieve all required information about surface of planets and the state of interstellar space. After reaching the destination it could be transformed to a [Fresnel lens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fresnel_imager) to focus the signal and then send information back to Earth.\n\nThis question is important because it explores the feasibility of these advancements in spacecraft speed, especially if these advancements can enable speeds ≥ 0.22c by 2075." } ] }
