Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3100
{ "count": 5977, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3120", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3080", "results": [ { "id": 18496, "title": "Will at least one US state secede by 2070?", "short_title": "US State Secession 2070", "url_title": "US State Secession 2070", "slug": "us-state-secession-2070", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112639, "username": "emilowk" } ], "created_at": "2023-08-21T16:17:02.208453Z", "published_at": "2023-08-29T23:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:07:22.065283Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-29T23:56:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2071-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2071-01-02T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-29T23:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18496, "title": "Will at least one US state secede by 2070?", "created_at": "2023-08-21T16:17:02.208453Z", "open_time": "2023-08-29T23:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-31T06:40:34.763198Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-31T06:40:34.763198Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2071-01-02T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2071-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2071-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies) Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act) However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War) However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union. ](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/) If a US state successfully secedes by 2070, which ones will secede?", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if any US state leaves the union. \n\nThe procedure to leave the Union need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature).\n\nIn case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded or has been ejected out of the union.\n\nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession. For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution.", "fine_print": "If the United States ceases to exist all at once (such as the result of a nuclear war), the question will resolve as ambiguous.", "post_id": 18496, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758492431.92648, "end_time": 1842774734.813907, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758492431.92648, "end_time": 1842774734.813907, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12882326815816486 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4123248810395285, 0.09996405000961155, 0.18997268947151003, 1.2579541690594735, 0.1350166315751149, 1.2856102517463772, 0.46404561502386255, 0.31791269281136625, 0.6062666629314708, 0.6609704774759386, 0.9723850680767783, 0.0, 1.358261396234804, 0.0, 0.3061666528158118, 0.5625517267640215, 0.0, 0.04583440182682791, 0.11980469871044437, 0.0, 0.044242474607622054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9225774080436027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03282480256284937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7197018749430008, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053483974712060484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287546.087396, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287546.087396, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9568644398846383, 0.043135560115361675 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies) Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act) However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War) However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union. ](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/) If a US state successfully secedes by 2070, which ones will secede?" }, { "id": 18444, "title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?", "short_title": "UK Response if China Invades Taiwan 2035?", "url_title": "UK Response if China Invades Taiwan 2035?", "slug": "uk-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-21T15:55:49.554171Z", "published_at": "2023-09-09T21:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.222330Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-09T21:46:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-09T21:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T19:07:10.248405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T19:07:10.248405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18444, "title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?", "created_at": "2023-08-21T15:55:49.554171Z", "open_time": "2023-09-09T21:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-10T11:17:32.241000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-10T11:17:32.241000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n\n* [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n\n* [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n \n* [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8470/japan-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035)\n\n\nWith tensions in the Taiwan Strait at a boiling point, it has been reported that [the United States](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html) is considering becoming militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region. Since the United States is the leading partner in NATO, it's possible that other NATO members could multilaterally be involved in a conflict, as happened [in Iraq](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-National_Force_%E2%80%93_Iraq). Such a partner might be the United Kingdom, which fought in Iraq and has [fought China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars) [several times before.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War)", "resolution_criteria": "If China does not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2035, then this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If China does invade Taiwan, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the United Kingdom responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Chinese invasion.\n\nIn line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10923), China will be considered to have launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan if either of these occur:\n\n* The [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/) and the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) **both** report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.\n\n* At least 1,000 military personnel from the [People's Liberation Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army) have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.\n\nThe United Kingdom will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Chinese infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the British government or British military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, and covert operations to e.g. assassinate Chinese nationals, will also **not** count.", "fine_print": "In the event of a breakup or change to the composition of the United Kingdom, this question will resolve according to the response or lack thereof of the country of England or its controlling government.", "post_id": 18444, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756864503.00107, "end_time": 1765676367.035817, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756864503.00107, "end_time": 1765676367.035817, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.24836037533128372 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.22831349954146843, 0.20176354912836664, 0.07741073985238849, 0.2619834317158503, 1.0393726392465819, 0.011256236138329163, 0.5812577025287669, 0.18422104619133833, 0.9485205268609804, 1.44555569670749, 0.06128441515918868, 0.5495593173022819, 0.0, 0.015066539120640116, 2.7000968659459885, 0.9290841880935544, 0.0005604149981838148, 0.5194046048006896, 0.4313129354481574, 0.9854171086081418, 0.21233733898991575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3895242192723624, 0.0, 0.05342938218229391, 0.8079828184275787, 0.0, 0.9631617052193335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08559600262341835, 0.48929876960192586, 0.015065764538379534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04323303380773827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49072637228749416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43754359052556363, 0.012427873490302374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0091774906885211, 0.0, 0.22608754657252977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005278083116039403, 0.016545052352399333, 0.0, 0.12610574305286126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3462191900209105, 0.0, 0.010174674941564427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28920435521928733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020616515635595665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27738576102308954 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289658.96408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289658.96408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8615620571971563, 0.13843794280284372 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n\n* [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n\n* [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n \n* [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8470/japan-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035)\n\n\nWith tensions in the Taiwan Strait at a boiling point, it has been reported that [the United States](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html) is considering becoming militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region. Since the United States is the leading partner in NATO, it's possible that other NATO members could multilaterally be involved in a conflict, as happened [in Iraq](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-National_Force_%E2%80%93_Iraq). Such a partner might be the United Kingdom, which fought in Iraq and has [fought China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars) [several times before.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War)" }, { "id": 18437, "title": "Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?", "short_title": "Hawaiian Electric Bankruptcy Before 2025?", "url_title": "Hawaiian Electric Bankruptcy Before 2025?", "slug": "hawaiian-electric-bankruptcy-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-18T20:47:07.882148Z", "published_at": "2023-08-20T03:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.865556Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-20T03:36:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-20T03:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18437, "title": "Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-08-18T20:47:07.882148Z", "open_time": "2023-08-20T03:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-22T03:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-22T03:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T20:53:17.455500Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., is owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries, a holding company which also owns American Savings Bank. (See 2022 annual report pdf [here](https://s2.q4cdn.com/268623243/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/Hawaiian-Electric-2022-Annual-Report.pdf)).\n\nThe August 2023 wildfires in Lahaina, Hawaii killed at least 106 people, according to the latest [update](https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12710) from the County of Maui. A class-action lawsuit alleges that the electric company “chose not to deenergize their power lines during the High Wind Watch and Red Flag Warning conditions for Maui before the Lahaina Fire started.\" The stock price plunged 47% in the week following the fires, to a 13-year low. [(CNN story)](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/investing/hawaiian-electric-maui-fires-lawsuit/index.html)\n\nIn an 8-K filed August 18, 2023, the company [stated](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/46207/000035470723000071/exhibit991.htm) that although it is seeking advice from \"various experts\" including restructuring advisors, its \"goal is not to restructure the company but to endure as a financially strong utility that Maui and this state need.\"\n\nIn recent years, other electric utility companies have gone bankrupt in the wake of disasters. California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/29/689591066/california-power-provider-pg-e-files-for-bankruptcy-in-wake-of-fire-lawsuits) bankruptcy in January 2019, following the Camp Fire of November 2018. The Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, which is the largest power cooperative in Texas, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/01/972408584/texas-energy-co-op-files-for-bankruptcy-after-storm-high-bill) for bankruptcy in March 2021, following the February 2021 Texas icestorm.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if there is an 8-K filing stating that the entity filing with the SEC under the Central Index Key (CIK) number 46207 [(here)](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=46207&owner=exclude) has filed or intends to file a petition in bankruptcy court under Chapter 11 reorganization or Chapter 7 liquidation before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "This question concerns Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., not its parent company Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. Therefore, if Hawaiian Electric Company files for bankruptcy but not its parent, this would resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 18437, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654928.108411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654928.108411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.994, 0.006 ], "means": [ 0.062317818742600624 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.263266290016947, 0.7545130486974232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.7251690897372494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47781473788172524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19227918282205353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 21.754541356520583, "peer_score": 22.80289770109754, "coverage": 0.999025953458011, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999025953458011, "spot_peer_score": 18.57877647704412, "spot_baseline_score": -23.4465253637023, "baseline_archived_score": 21.754541356520583, "peer_archived_score": 22.80289770109754, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.57877647704412, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -23.4465253637023 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289039.480484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289039.480484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9794449331635522, 0.020555066836447783 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., is owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries, a holding company which also owns American Savings Bank. (See 2022 annual report pdf [here](https://s2.q4cdn.com/268623243/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/Hawaiian-Electric-2022-Annual-Report.pdf)).\n\nThe August 2023 wildfires in Lahaina, Hawaii killed at least 106 people, according to the latest [update](https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12710) from the County of Maui. A class-action lawsuit alleges that the electric company “chose not to deenergize their power lines during the High Wind Watch and Red Flag Warning conditions for Maui before the Lahaina Fire started.\" The stock price plunged 47% in the week following the fires, to a 13-year low. [(CNN story)](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/investing/hawaiian-electric-maui-fires-lawsuit/index.html)\n\nIn an 8-K filed August 18, 2023, the company [stated](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/46207/000035470723000071/exhibit991.htm) that although it is seeking advice from \"various experts\" including restructuring advisors, its \"goal is not to restructure the company but to endure as a financially strong utility that Maui and this state need.\"\n\nIn recent years, other electric utility companies have gone bankrupt in the wake of disasters. California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/29/689591066/california-power-provider-pg-e-files-for-bankruptcy-in-wake-of-fire-lawsuits) bankruptcy in January 2019, following the Camp Fire of November 2018. The Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, which is the largest power cooperative in Texas, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/01/972408584/texas-energy-co-op-files-for-bankruptcy-after-storm-high-bill) for bankruptcy in March 2021, following the February 2021 Texas icestorm." }, { "id": 18402, "title": "Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?", "short_title": "2024 NAEP Scores Decline?", "url_title": "2024 NAEP Scores Decline?", "slug": "2024-naep-scores-decline", "author_id": 152398, "author_username": "skg329", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-16T09:06:59.373352Z", "published_at": "2023-08-25T01:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.588921Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-25T01:32:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-03T00:53:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-25T01:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18402, "title": "Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?", "created_at": "2023-08-16T09:06:59.373352Z", "open_time": "2023-08-25T01:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-27T01:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-27T01:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-03T00:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-03T01:00:20.492166Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/) has been collecting data on what American students know and can do since 1969. Known as \"The Nation's Report Card,\" the NAEP administers a series of assessments, including data on [reading](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading/?grade=4) and [math](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/mathematics/?grade=4) performance for 4th, 8th, and 12th grades.\n\n2022 NAEP results for 4th and 8th graders showed drops compared to 2019, more than experts expected. The declines were widespread across almost all states and districts, and all performance bands.\n\nBefore COVID, gaps between top and bottom students were growing. The 2022 results suggest this continued, with lower-performing students losing more ground.\n\nThe 2024 NAEP tests will happen Winter 2024. Results come out about a year later. This prediction will resolve in late 2025 when all of the 2024 results are published.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, for all of the following subjects and grade levels, the average [NAEP](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/) score for 2024 is lower than the comparable score in 2022.\n\nIf the 2024 NAEP shows a higher score for any subject/grade level pairing, the question resolves **No**.\n\nHere are the relevant subjects, grade levels, and most recent scores:\n\n| Subject | Grade | Score | Score Year |\n|-------------|-------|-------|------------|\n| Mathematics | 4 | 236 | 2022 |\n| Mathematics | 8 | 274 | 2022 |\n| Reading | 4 | 217 | 2022 |\n| Reading | 8 | 260 | 2022 |", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18402, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423971.690338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423971.690338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.25207847231858344 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.09452424244796935, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.3369871084062156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4733770564116979, 0.0, 1.198634344500686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.045032921014155, "peer_score": 17.56190944615627, "coverage": 0.9997783025052613, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997783025052613, "spot_peer_score": 26.347750284793705, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 51.045032921014155, "peer_archived_score": 17.56190944615627, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.347750284793705, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725177694.703745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725177694.703745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8822560208711264, 0.11774397912887358 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/) has been collecting data on what American students know and can do since 1969. Known as \"The Nation's Report Card,\" the NAEP administers a series of assessments, including data on [reading](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading/?grade=4) and [math](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/mathematics/?grade=4) performance for 4th, 8th, and 12th grades.\n\n2022 NAEP results for 4th and 8th graders showed drops compared to 2019, more than experts expected. The declines were widespread across almost all states and districts, and all performance bands.\n\nBefore COVID, gaps between top and bottom students were growing. The 2022 results suggest this continued, with lower-performing students losing more ground.\n\nThe 2024 NAEP tests will happen Winter 2024. Results come out about a year later. This prediction will resolve in late 2025 when all of the 2024 results are published." }, { "id": 18390, "title": "Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Trump Charged with Witness Tampering?", "url_title": "Trump Charged with Witness Tampering?", "slug": "trump-charged-with-witness-tampering", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-15T23:13:21.999852Z", "published_at": "2023-08-18T02:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.419983Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-18T02:04:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T15:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T15:47:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-18T02:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18390, "title": "Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-08-15T23:13:21.999852Z", "open_time": "2023-08-18T02:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-20T02:04:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-20T02:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T15:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T15:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T15:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 14, 2023, former President Donald Trump was [indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia#Indictment) by a grand jury in Georgia, alongside 18 other individuals. The state brought charges against Trump related to Trump's alleged participation in an attempt to overturn the state's 2020 presidential election results.\n\nTrump made statements on his social media platform, Truth Social, which [appeared to warn](https://www.axios.com/2023/08/14/trump-witness-tampering-georgia-indictment) potential witnesses not to testify against him.\n\n> Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, his social media platform, on Monday saying Georgia’s former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan “shouldn’t” testify in grand jury proceedings this week regarding allegations that Trump attempted to overturn the 2020 election results in the state—and some legal analysts are saying the post could be witness intimidation or tampering.\n\n> ...\n\n> Per Georgia law, anyone who attempts to [influence](https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2020/title-16/chapter-10/article-5/section-16-10-93/) a witness is subject to felony charges and, if convicted, can face one to five years in prison; anyone who [threatens](https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2022/title-16/chapter-10/article-2/section-16-10-32/#:~:text=Attempted%20Murder%20or%20Threatening%20of%20Witnesses%20in%20Official%20Proceedings,-Universal%20Citation%3A%20GA&text=shall%20be%20guilty%20of%20a,nor%20more%20than%2020%20years.) a witness is subject to felony charges and, if convicted, faces 10 to 20 years in prison. ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2023/08/14/trump-suggested-a-witness-shouldnt-testify-in-georgias-grand-jury-proceedings-critics-say-thats-witness-intimidation/?sh=7e14b52a57be))", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is charged or indicted for any statements related to potential witnesses in *[The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia)*. The indictments must occur before June 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18390, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717166916.423537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717166916.423537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.027519199514815393 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.300601458619721, 6.97347052710732, 0.9031626535651527, 0.0, 0.10066260077593363, 0.09190893594621116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07561306189923878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045113666448411936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0870983533711305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09190167535275771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018980425029571785, 0.014742156022549508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002608200027234153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012720747494406942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012678038170596699, 0.0065036323388337515, 0.01945816775464467, 0.03211265593215371, 0.01698211627615795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05068353181957037, 0.0, 0.007807124044234717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004317504220680495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016246023240768244 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 53.55247490176042, "coverage": 0.999032837196186, "baseline_score": -37.25184652373369, "spot_peer_score": -0.6600875765393382, "peer_archived_score": 53.55247490176042, "baseline_archived_score": -37.25184652373369, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.6600875765393382 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717166916.461583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717166916.461583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 167, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 14, 2023, former President Donald Trump was [indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia#Indictment) by a grand jury in Georgia, alongside 18 other individuals. The state brought charges against Trump related to Trump's alleged participation in an attempt to overturn the state's 2020 presidential election results.\n\nTrump made statements on his social media platform, Truth Social, which [appeared to warn](https://www.axios.com/2023/08/14/trump-witness-tampering-georgia-indictment) potential witnesses not to testify against him.\n\n> Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, his social media platform, on Monday saying Georgia’s former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan “shouldn’t” testify in grand jury proceedings this week regarding allegations that Trump attempted to overturn the 2020 election results in the state—and some legal analysts are saying the post could be witness intimidation or tampering.\n\n> ...\n\n> Per Georgia law, anyone who attempts to [influence](https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2020/title-16/chapter-10/article-5/section-16-10-93/) a witness is subject to felony charges and, if convicted, can face one to five years in prison; anyone who [threatens](https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2022/title-16/chapter-10/article-2/section-16-10-32/#:~:text=Attempted%20Murder%20or%20Threatening%20of%20Witnesses%20in%20Official%20Proceedings,-Universal%20Citation%3A%20GA&text=shall%20be%20guilty%20of%20a,nor%20more%20than%2020%20years.) a witness is subject to felony charges and, if convicted, faces 10 to 20 years in prison. ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2023/08/14/trump-suggested-a-witness-shouldnt-testify-in-georgias-grand-jury-proceedings-critics-say-thats-witness-intimidation/?sh=7e14b52a57be))" }, { "id": 18387, "title": "Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?", "short_title": "Next President of Ecuador Completes Term?", "url_title": "Next President of Ecuador Completes Term?", "slug": "next-president-of-ecuador-completes-term", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-15T19:53:02.040967Z", "published_at": "2023-08-16T23:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.134751Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-16T23:02:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-24T15:45:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-16T23:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18387, "title": "Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?", "created_at": "2023-08-15T19:53:02.040967Z", "open_time": "2023-08-16T23:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-18T23:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-18T23:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-24T15:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-24T15:51:01.818119Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as \"[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)\" to dissolve the assembly as he was [facing impeachment proceedings](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/americas/ecuador-president-lasso-impeachment-intl-latam/index.html), but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held [on August 20, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election). If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place [on October 15, 2023](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-who-running-ecuadors-snap-presidential-vote).\n\nEcuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of [two local politicians](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-crime-political-killing-election-villavicencio-14a5fd781e52d31855f3fc4e9711ff84) as well as [the murder of a presidential candidate](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-killed), Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso [declared a state of emergency for 60 days](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-killed-in-attack-news-reports).\n\n[InSight Crime estimates](https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crime-2022-homicide-round-up/#:~:text=Ecuador%3A%2025.9%20per%20100%2C000%20(Pop.%2017%2C797%2C737)) that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=VC.IHR.PSRC.P5&locations=EC\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>\n\n[Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election#Opinion_polls) shows [Luisa González](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luisa_Gonz%C3%A1lez), candidate from the [Citizen Revolution Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen_Revolution_Movement) party, in the lead, though as of August 15 Wikipedia currently does not report any polls following the death of Villavicencio.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the next President of Ecuador, elected in 2023, holds the office of the president continuously until the scheduled end of their term of [May 24, 2025](https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Six-Citizens-Are-Running-for-the-Ecuadorean-Presidency-So-Far-20230526-0008.html). Resolution will be determined according to reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* The president no longer holding the office or stepping down for any period of time for any reason will result in the question resolving as **No**.", "post_id": 18387, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747794896.900809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.992 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747794896.900809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.992 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9385748614420758 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22000827887205915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.11786432781798938, 0.4609695388197726, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 2.7526003448143554, 0.4504227484700748, 1.1661856684961571, 0.0, 3.3011432967295704 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.32523012911503, "peer_score": 14.257378919053433, "coverage": 0.9991180255222825, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9991180255222825, "spot_peer_score": 0.9044991954957288, "spot_baseline_score": 45.41758931858021, "baseline_archived_score": 82.32523012911503, "peer_archived_score": 14.257378919053433, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.9044991954957288, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 45.41758931858021 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288833.586778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288833.586778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10987133034980767, 0.8901286696501923 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as \"[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)\" to dissolve the assembly as he was [facing impeachment proceedings](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/americas/ecuador-president-lasso-impeachment-intl-latam/index.html), but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held [on August 20, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election). If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place [on October 15, 2023](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-who-running-ecuadors-snap-presidential-vote).\n\nEcuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of [two local politicians](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-crime-political-killing-election-villavicencio-14a5fd781e52d31855f3fc4e9711ff84) as well as [the murder of a presidential candidate](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-killed), Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso [declared a state of emergency for 60 days](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-killed-in-attack-news-reports).\n\n[InSight Crime estimates](https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crime-2022-homicide-round-up/#:~:text=Ecuador%3A%2025.9%20per%20100%2C000%20(Pop.%2017%2C797%2C737)) that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=VC.IHR.PSRC.P5&locations=EC\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>\n\n[Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election#Opinion_polls) shows [Luisa González](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luisa_Gonz%C3%A1lez), candidate from the [Citizen Revolution Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen_Revolution_Movement) party, in the lead, though as of August 15 Wikipedia currently does not report any polls following the death of Villavicencio." }, { "id": 18386, "title": "Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?", "short_title": "González Plurality in Ecuador Election?", "url_title": "González Plurality in Ecuador Election?", "slug": "gonzalez-plurality-in-ecuador-election", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-15T19:10:32.583443Z", "published_at": "2023-08-16T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.540135Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-16T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-21T20:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-21T20:40:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-16T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as \"[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)\" to dissolve the assembly as he was [facing impeachment proceedings](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/americas/ecuador-president-lasso-impeachment-intl-latam/index.html), but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held [on August 20, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election). If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place [on October 15, 2023](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-who-running-ecuadors-snap-presidential-vote).\n\nEcuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of [two local politicians](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-crime-political-killing-election-villavicencio-14a5fd781e52d31855f3fc4e9711ff84) as well as [the murder of a presidential candidate](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-killed), Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso [declared a state of emergency for 60 days](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-killed-in-attack-news-reports).\n\n[InSight Crime estimates](https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crime-2022-homicide-round-up/#:~:text=Ecuador%3A%2025.9%20per%20100%2C000%20(Pop.%2017%2C797%2C737)) that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=VC.IHR.PSRC.P5&locations=EC\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>\n\n[Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election#Opinion_polls) shows [Luisa González](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luisa_Gonz%C3%A1lez), candidate from the [Citizen Revolution Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen_Revolution_Movement) party, in the lead, though as of August 15 Wikipedia currently does not report any polls following the death of Villavicencio.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Luisa González receives the most votes in the first round of Ecuador's election, according to reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* If it is not obvious that González has received the most votes, such as in the event of a close election, this question will resolve according to the final results as first reported directly by the National Electoral Council of Ecuador or via secondary credible sources. Later recounts or disputes are immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n* If final official results are not reported before October 1, 2023, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 18386, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692482196.064515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.682 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692482196.064515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.682 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7386941848910532 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20728428597607368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4779236959628912, 0.043221015654296396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20606980290443908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9404576056891216, 0.0, 0.6195506565885022, 0.0, 0.3484957008323427, 0.8772861990935975, 0.0, 0.1452682215017525, 0.6983056029809626, 0.0, 0.9320576437636137, 0.44181099202797386, 2.7525123814864445, 0.22659881065625792, 0.025290490754560285, 0.018701514513498173, 0.0, 1.521614068512982, 0.011157123373592481, 0.03806556990920311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6505667565439232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6015901690426233, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005849328395348274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.383541263173016, "coverage": 0.9997079270398408, "baseline_score": 55.94782928560539, "spot_peer_score": -10.325663725608639, "peer_archived_score": 3.383541263173016, "baseline_archived_score": 55.94782928560539, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.325663725608639 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692482196.09758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692482196.09758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.32504449009626846, 0.6749555099037315 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as \"[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)\" to dissolve the assembly as he was [facing impeachment proceedings](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/americas/ecuador-president-lasso-impeachment-intl-latam/index.html), but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held [on August 20, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election). If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place [on October 15, 2023](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-who-running-ecuadors-snap-presidential-vote).\n\nEcuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of [two local politicians](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-crime-political-killing-election-villavicencio-14a5fd781e52d31855f3fc4e9711ff84) as well as [the murder of a presidential candidate](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-killed), Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso [declared a state of emergency for 60 days](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-killed-in-attack-news-reports).\n\n[InSight Crime estimates](https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crime-2022-homicide-round-up/#:~:text=Ecuador%3A%2025.9%20per%20100%2C000%20(Pop.%2017%2C797%2C737)) that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=VC.IHR.PSRC.P5&locations=EC\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>\n\n[Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election#Opinion_polls) shows [Luisa González](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luisa_Gonz%C3%A1lez), candidate from the [Citizen Revolution Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen_Revolution_Movement) party, in the lead, though as of August 15 Wikipedia currently does not report any polls following the death of Villavicencio." }, { "id": 18385, "title": "Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?", "short_title": "Ecuador Extends 2023 State of Emergency?", "url_title": "Ecuador Extends 2023 State of Emergency?", "slug": "ecuador-extends-2023-state-of-emergency", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-15T19:04:41.370817Z", "published_at": "2023-08-16T23:03:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.013352Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-16T23:03:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-09T01:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-09T01:25:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-16T23:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18385, "title": "Will Ecuador's state of emergency be extended beyond the initial 60 days?", "created_at": "2023-08-15T19:04:41.370817Z", "open_time": "2023-08-16T23:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-18T23:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-18T23:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-09T01:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-09T01:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-09T01:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-07T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-07T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as \"[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)\" to dissolve the assembly as he was [facing impeachment proceedings](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/americas/ecuador-president-lasso-impeachment-intl-latam/index.html), but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held [on August 20, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election). If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place [on October 15, 2023](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-who-running-ecuadors-snap-presidential-vote).\n\nEcuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of [two local politicians](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-crime-political-killing-election-villavicencio-14a5fd781e52d31855f3fc4e9711ff84) as well as [the murder of a presidential candidate](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-killed), Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso [declared a state of emergency for 60 days](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-killed-in-attack-news-reports), scheduled to end [on October 9](https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2023/08/ecuador-authorities-introduce-national-state-of-emergency-as-of-aug-10-after-assassination-of-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-in-quito-aug-9-update-2).\n\n[InSight Crime estimates](https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crime-2022-homicide-round-up/#:~:text=Ecuador%3A%2025.9%20per%20100%2C000%20(Pop.%2017%2C797%2C737)) that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=VC.IHR.PSRC.P5&locations=EC\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before the existing national state of emergency lapses, credible sources report that the state of emergency in Ecuador has been extended beyond the initial 60 days without lapsing. This question will resolve as **No** if either there is no such reporting before October 10, 2023 or if credible sources report that the national state of emergency in Ecuador has ended.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18385, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696714604.829598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696714604.829598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5058808886959304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.10352427088835169, 1.953022811166411, 0.6448346343356433, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0802588103977966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.752834674798314, "coverage": 0.9890437687435081, "baseline_score": -0.018019187613562304, "spot_peer_score": 0.9829579781355426, "peer_archived_score": 5.752834674798314, "baseline_archived_score": -0.018019187613562304, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.9829579781355426 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696714604.860052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696714604.860052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5865253624580947, 0.4134746375419053 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as \"[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)\" to dissolve the assembly as he was [facing impeachment proceedings](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/americas/ecuador-president-lasso-impeachment-intl-latam/index.html), but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held [on August 20, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election). If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place [on October 15, 2023](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-who-running-ecuadors-snap-presidential-vote).\n\nEcuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of [two local politicians](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-crime-political-killing-election-villavicencio-14a5fd781e52d31855f3fc4e9711ff84) as well as [the murder of a presidential candidate](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-killed), Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso [declared a state of emergency for 60 days](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-killed-in-attack-news-reports), scheduled to end [on October 9](https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2023/08/ecuador-authorities-introduce-national-state-of-emergency-as-of-aug-10-after-assassination-of-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-in-quito-aug-9-update-2).\n\n[InSight Crime estimates](https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crime-2022-homicide-round-up/#:~:text=Ecuador%3A%2025.9%20per%20100%2C000%20(Pop.%2017%2C797%2C737)) that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=VC.IHR.PSRC.P5&locations=EC\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>" }, { "id": 18383, "title": "Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?", "short_title": "Chinese Forced Reproduction Before 2051?", "url_title": "Chinese Forced Reproduction Before 2051?", "slug": "chinese-forced-reproduction-before-2051", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 114911, "username": "Joker" } ], "created_at": "2023-08-15T13:47:51.987108Z", "published_at": "2023-08-23T13:52:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T13:13:11.928665Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-23T13:52:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-23T13:52:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18383, "title": "Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?", "created_at": "2023-08-15T13:47:51.987108Z", "open_time": "2023-08-23T13:52:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-24T01:26:43.317811Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-24T01:26:43.317811Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Also see the companion question: [Will China ban abortion and contraception before 2051?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16720/chinese-decree-770-before-2051/)*\n\n---\n\nIn 1980, the government of China implemented the [one-child policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy) in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the government's liking, as in [August 2021](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/china-scraps-fines-for-families-violating-childbirth-limits.html) all fines were removed and Chinese couples were permitted to have as many children as they liked. The reason for this is China's total fertility rate [falling to 1.08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Vital_statistics) in 2022. \n\nA prominent health official in Beijing has called for \"bold steps\" to [reverse this trend](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64594469). [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/upshot/china-population-decline.html) has begun speculating on how the Chinese government might reverse the trend as well. China's [human rights abuses against the Uyghurs](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-xinjiang-uyghurs-muslims-repression-genocide-human-rights) might suggest a willingness to commit atrocities to further state goals.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2051, international human rights organizations or the UN claim that the Chinese government has forced at least one million people to reproduce against their will, through natural or technological means.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, \"forced\" will be considered to be the direct violation or direct threat of violation of bodily autonomy, such as imprisonment, artificial insemination, or other similar violations. To be considered direct the violation must be imposed to cause an individual to reproduce, to collect a biological sample such as sperm or eggs for the purposes of reproduction, or punish an individual for a lack of reproduction, and not as a response to failure to comply with some other punishment or incentive that did not violate bodily autonomy. For example, the imposition of fines or tax incentives intended to incentivize births, with the punishment for non-payment including imprisonment, would not be considered a direct violation of bodily autonomy.\n* Statements by international human rights organizations or the UN will be used to assess whether these criteria have been met, and if available statements broadly describe a practice that has resulted in 1 million or more forced births without sufficient detail to conclusively determine whether the practice directly violated bodily autonomy as described here, this question will still resolve as **Yes**.\n* If China no longer exists or has no successor at the time of resolution, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. For the purposes of this question, in the case of territorial disputes or challenges to China's legitimacy, a successor government will be recognized as one which holds over 50% of the territory under the de facto control of China on August 9, 2023, and whose political capital city is within that same territory.", "post_id": 18383, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757164381.379443, "end_time": 1779158723.718454, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757164381.379443, "end_time": 1779158723.718454, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.13770253285915768 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.709382180284821, 0.6801800818156951, 1.3792920558050663, 0.3018878652065521, 0.0, 0.961442197510566, 0.05855889144026411, 0.5205318951534549, 1.3851982832604688, 0.06833212923320346, 0.9518721899178347, 0.0, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.10168942274700313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286944.99531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286944.99531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9850723840892778, 0.01492761591072225 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Also see the companion question: [Will China ban abortion and contraception before 2051?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16720/chinese-decree-770-before-2051/)*\n\n---\n\nIn 1980, the government of China implemented the [one-child policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy) in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the government's liking, as in [August 2021](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/china-scraps-fines-for-families-violating-childbirth-limits.html) all fines were removed and Chinese couples were permitted to have as many children as they liked. The reason for this is China's total fertility rate [falling to 1.08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Vital_statistics) in 2022. \n\nA prominent health official in Beijing has called for \"bold steps\" to [reverse this trend](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64594469). [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/upshot/china-population-decline.html) has begun speculating on how the Chinese government might reverse the trend as well. China's [human rights abuses against the Uyghurs](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-xinjiang-uyghurs-muslims-repression-genocide-human-rights) might suggest a willingness to commit atrocities to further state goals." }, { "id": 18366, "title": "Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?", "short_title": "India 2024 election winner", "url_title": "India 2024 election winner", "slug": "india-2024-election-winner", "author_id": 149885, "author_username": "awesome_ruler_007", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-14T13:31:33.184927Z", "published_at": "2023-09-02T19:37:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.254776Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-02T19:37:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-04T20:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-04T20:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-02T19:37:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18366, "title": "Will the right-wing incumbent BJP win the 2024 national election in India?", "created_at": "2023-08-14T13:31:33.184927Z", "open_time": "2023-09-02T19:37:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-04T19:37:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-04T19:37:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-04T20:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-04T20:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-04T20:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BJP, led by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been ruling India since 2014. It's a right wing, nationalist party that has recently faced much criticism for its measures to curb [freedom](https://rsf.org/en/country/india) [of speech](https://rsf.org/en/india-media-freedom-under-threat), threaten [democracy by targeting academics and institutions](https://thewire.in/education/author-of-paper-on-possible-manipulation-in-2019-polls-quits-ashoka-university) and [ignoring major riots in Manipur](https://thewire.in/politics/elections-2024-india-most-dangerous-phase) by [banning Twitter](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/05/twitter-accused-of-censorship-in-india-as-it-blocks-modi-critics-elon-musk) accounts critical of the ruling party as well as alleged co-conspirators for utilizing NSO's [Pegasus spyware](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegasus_(spyware)) to spy on opposition leaders like [Rahul Gandhi](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/jul/19/key-modi-rival-rahul-gandhi-among-indian-targets-of-nso-client).\n\nHowever, BJP still holds popular support. To counter this, the center-to-left wing opposition has formed a coalition christened ['INDIA'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/19/indian-opposition-unites-in-attempt-to-oust-narendra-modi) led by Gandhi. However, it remains to be seen how well they can muster momentum to topple the incumbent - as Congress is seen to be a largely ineffective government by the general populace.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if BJP wins the majority number of seats in the Lok Sabha (lower house), i.e >= 273 seats out of the total 545, as reported by credible news sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18366, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711575138.987123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711575138.987123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9547389035130363 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04637161225326318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14311027374634336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7611790226726443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2222065787409882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12374710533986058, 0.0, 0.8058647815640241, 0.004800587348436423, 0.1942083030981342, 0.07251123497078005, 0.5982116329261886, 1.1025790644811362, 0.287333799913006, 1.0, 2.160610004480402, 5.126352366726014 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.872731287300534, "coverage": 0.9999360359370015, "baseline_score": -277.7485727896765, "spot_peer_score": -73.27984381041055, "peer_archived_score": 10.872731287300534, "baseline_archived_score": -277.7485727896765, "spot_peer_archived_score": -73.27984381041055 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711957531.027146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711957531.027146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.05020538734010771, 0.9497946126598923 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BJP, led by the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been ruling India since 2014. It's a right wing, nationalist party that has recently faced much criticism for its measures to curb [freedom](https://rsf.org/en/country/india) [of speech](https://rsf.org/en/india-media-freedom-under-threat), threaten [democracy by targeting academics and institutions](https://thewire.in/education/author-of-paper-on-possible-manipulation-in-2019-polls-quits-ashoka-university) and [ignoring major riots in Manipur](https://thewire.in/politics/elections-2024-india-most-dangerous-phase) by [banning Twitter](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/05/twitter-accused-of-censorship-in-india-as-it-blocks-modi-critics-elon-musk) accounts critical of the ruling party as well as alleged co-conspirators for utilizing NSO's [Pegasus spyware](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pegasus_(spyware)) to spy on opposition leaders like [Rahul Gandhi](https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/jul/19/key-modi-rival-rahul-gandhi-among-indian-targets-of-nso-client).\n\nHowever, BJP still holds popular support. To counter this, the center-to-left wing opposition has formed a coalition christened ['INDIA'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/19/indian-opposition-unites-in-attempt-to-oust-narendra-modi) led by Gandhi. However, it remains to be seen how well they can muster momentum to topple the incumbent - as Congress is seen to be a largely ineffective government by the general populace." }, { "id": 18365, "title": "Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?", "short_title": "Rob Long Says AI Conscious By 2030?", "url_title": "Rob Long Says AI Conscious By 2030?", "slug": "rob-long-says-ai-conscious-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-14T11:50:20.701722Z", "published_at": "2023-11-25T18:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T10:29:14.099785Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-25T18:58:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-25T18:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, 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}, "question": { "id": 18365, "title": "Will Rob Long believe there is conscious AI before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-08-14T11:50:20.701722Z", "open_time": "2023-11-25T18:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-28T18:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-28T18:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "If AI can be conscious, then this will have major impacts on how to build AI (e.g., maybe AI labs avoid building the kinds of AI that are conscious), how to treat AI (see, e.g., \"[Sharing the World with Digital Minds](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/digital-minds.pdf) and \"[Propositions Concerning Digital Minds and Society](https://nickbostrom.com/propositions.pdf)\"), and perhaps even how we view our place in the universe as conscious biological beings.\n\nOne way of operationalizing the question of whether (and when) conscious AIs will be built is to ask whether leading thinkers on AI consciousness, otherwise known as artificial sentience or digital sentience, will believe we have conscious AI by given dates in the future. This is what we do in this question and in some others in the series (e.g., [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18244/chalmers-ai-consciousness)).\n\nAdditional background: there has recently been [increased](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LrxLa9jfaNcEzqex3/calebp-s-shortform?commentId=JwMiAgJxWrKjX52Qt) [discussion](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JZEgmumeamzBAAprt/how-come-there-isn-t-that-much-focus-in-ea-on-research-into) of AI consciousness within the effective altruism (EA) community. Rob Long is one of the key people thinking about artificial sentience within this community: earlier this year he appeared on the 80,000 Hours podcast episode \"[Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/robert-long-artificial-sentience/)\", and co-authored \"[Moral Consideration for AI Systems by 2030](https://jeffsebodotnet.files.wordpress.com/2023/06/moral-consideration-for-ai-systems-by-2030-5.pdf?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email)\".\n\nEA funders can and have moved [hundreds of millions of dollars](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/our-progress-in-2022-and-plans-for-2023/) into what they view as the most important problem areas in the world. Examples include global poverty, animal welfare, and AI safety. Whether or not AI consciousness (and related things like AI welfare and AI rights) becomes a highly funded area within the next few years will likely depend—at least in part—on to what extent AI consciousness is possible, and how soon it might arrive, in the view of key thinkers on AI consciousness within the EA community.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Rob Long makes a statement before 2030 indicating he believes, with >50% probability, that there is at least one (non-trivially) conscious AI system. This question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "* It's possible (and in fact likely) that Rob will not make probabilistic statements. This [perceptions of probability table](https://i.redd.it/pozfwzr42rc41.png) will be used to convert Rob's qualitative statements about the likelihood of AI consciousness into probabilities.\n* In the event of Long's death before the question has resolved the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 18365, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758277742.945833, "end_time": 1758846367.611337, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758277742.945833, "end_time": 1758846367.611337, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.582239298442061 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7853204636443145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4472014263975837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9729983217045279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9239896352751821 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289047.682707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289047.682707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8609740947338105, 0.13902590526618952 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "If AI can be conscious, then this will have major impacts on how to build AI (e.g., maybe AI labs avoid building the kinds of AI that are conscious), how to treat AI (see, e.g., \"[Sharing the World with Digital Minds](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/digital-minds.pdf) and \"[Propositions Concerning Digital Minds and Society](https://nickbostrom.com/propositions.pdf)\"), and perhaps even how we view our place in the universe as conscious biological beings.\n\nOne way of operationalizing the question of whether (and when) conscious AIs will be built is to ask whether leading thinkers on AI consciousness, otherwise known as artificial sentience or digital sentience, will believe we have conscious AI by given dates in the future. This is what we do in this question and in some others in the series (e.g., [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18244/chalmers-ai-consciousness)).\n\nAdditional background: there has recently been [increased](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LrxLa9jfaNcEzqex3/calebp-s-shortform?commentId=JwMiAgJxWrKjX52Qt) [discussion](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JZEgmumeamzBAAprt/how-come-there-isn-t-that-much-focus-in-ea-on-research-into) of AI consciousness within the effective altruism (EA) community. Rob Long is one of the key people thinking about artificial sentience within this community: earlier this year he appeared on the 80,000 Hours podcast episode \"[Robert Long on why large language models like GPT (probably) aren't conscious](https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/robert-long-artificial-sentience/)\", and co-authored \"[Moral Consideration for AI Systems by 2030](https://jeffsebodotnet.files.wordpress.com/2023/06/moral-consideration-for-ai-systems-by-2030-5.pdf?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email)\".\n\nEA funders can and have moved [hundreds of millions of dollars](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/our-progress-in-2022-and-plans-for-2023/) into what they view as the most important problem areas in the world. Examples include global poverty, animal welfare, and AI safety. Whether or not AI consciousness (and related things like AI welfare and AI rights) becomes a highly funded area within the next few years will likely depend—at least in part—on to what extent AI consciousness is possible, and how soon it might arrive, in the view of key thinkers on AI consciousness within the EA community." }, { "id": 18360, "title": "Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?", "short_title": "GPT-5 AGI or not", "url_title": "GPT-5 AGI or not", "slug": "gpt-5-agi-or-not", "author_id": 133209, "author_username": "LordNPython", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-13T16:38:28.227043Z", "published_at": "2023-10-01T21:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T14:45:55.641027Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-01T21:20:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-01T21:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 121, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, 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"relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18360, "title": "Will OpenAI claim GPT-5 is AGI within 30 days after its release?", "created_at": "2023-08-13T16:38:28.227043Z", "open_time": "2023-10-01T21:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-03T00:24:26.541063Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-03T00:24:26.541063Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A tweet by @blader has sparked a debate about whether the upcoming GPT-5 will be considered an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or not:\n\n> i have been told that gpt5 is scheduled to complete training this december and that openai expects it to achieve agi.\n>\n> which means we will all hotly debate as to whether it actually achieves agi.\n>\n> which means it will\n\nAGI is often [described](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence) as an autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in the majority of economically valuable tasks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question would resolve positively if OpenAI posts on its website that it has achieved AGI within 30 days after GPT-5's release. If OpenAI lists this on its website before the release of GPT-5, the question would also resolve positively. Furthermore, this question would resolve positively if any member of the OpenAI leadership claims (on the record) that OpenAI has achieved AGI with GPT-5 within 30 days after the release of GPT-5 (before the release would also count).\n\nIf GPT-5 does not launch before 2030, this question will resolve ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18360, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758465945.020914, "end_time": 1759821684.405833, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758465945.020914, "end_time": 1759821684.405833, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.01138259480216604 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.980659898998374, 4.4196189462459685, 1.4667033175668664, 0.05663073416334292, 0.41229823372724483, 0.00837830513533033, 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"start_time": 1728287909.894619, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9972257364429796, 0.0027742635570204236 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 239, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A tweet by @blader has sparked a debate about whether the upcoming GPT-5 will be considered an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or not:\n\n> i have been told that gpt5 is scheduled to complete training this december and that openai expects it to achieve agi.\n>\n> which means we will all hotly debate as to whether it actually achieves agi.\n>\n> which means it will\n\nAGI is often [described](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence) as an autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in 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the G20 summit in person, even if he is not present for the entire duration of the event. 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{}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1694186462.477003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 176, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1694186462.477003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 176, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994086190195621, 0.0005913809804378599 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 540, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[CNBC reports](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/10/putin-considers-attending-g20-summit-in-person-setting-up-tense-meeting-with-western-leaders.html): \n\n> Russian President Vladimir Putin is weighing whether to attend his first in-person meeting with Western leaders since his forces invaded Ukraine in 2022, a Kremlin source tells NBC News.\n\n> Putin still hasn’t ruled out appearing in person at the G20 meeting of major economies on Sept. 9-10 in the Indian capital, New Delhi, according to a Kremlin official who did not want to be named because he does not make public statements." }, { "id": 18266, "title": "Will the International Maritime Organization permit more sulphur oxide pollution by 2030?", "short_title": "Geoengineering Via Sulphur Dioxide", "url_title": "Geoengineering Via Sulphur Dioxide", "slug": "geoengineering-via-sulphur-dioxide", "author_id": 118777, "author_username": "H559", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-07T21:16:32.950839Z", "published_at": "2023-08-10T15:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:30:16.548009Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-10T15:45:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": 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Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18266, "title": "Will the International Maritime Organization permit more sulphur oxide pollution by 2030?", "created_at": "2023-08-07T21:16:32.950839Z", "open_time": "2023-08-10T15:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-12T15:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-12T15:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [‘We’re changing the clouds.’ An unintended test of geoengineering is fueling record ocean warmth](https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth), Science, 02 August 2023:\n\n> Regulations imposed in 2020 by the United Nations’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) have cut ships’ sulfur pollution by more than 80% and improved air quality worldwide. The reduction has also lessened the effect of sulfate particles in seeding and brightening the distinctive low-lying, reflective clouds that follow in the wake of ships and help cool the planet. The 2020 IMO rule “is a big natural experiment,” says Duncan Watson-Parris, an atmospheric physicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. “We’re changing the clouds.”\n> \n> By dramatically reducing the number of ship tracks, the planet has warmed up faster, several new studies have found. That trend is magnified in the Atlantic, where maritime traffic is particularly dense. In the shipping corridors, the increased light represents a 50% boost to the warming effect of human carbon emissions. It’s as if the world suddenly lost the cooling effect from a fairly large volcanic eruption each year, says Michael Diamond, an atmospheric scientist at Florida State University.\n> \n> The natural experiment created by the IMO rules is providing a rare opportunity for climate scientists to study a geoengineering scheme in action—although it is one that is working in the wrong direction. Indeed, one such strategy to slow global warming, called marine cloud brightening, would see ships inject salt particles back into the air, to make clouds more reflective. In Diamond’s view, the dramatic decline in ship tracks is clear evidence that humanity could cool off the planet significantly by brightening the clouds. “It suggests pretty strongly that if you wanted to do it on purpose, you could,” he says.\n\n---\n\nIn [IMO 2020 – cutting sulphur oxide emissions](https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Sulphur-2020.aspx), the IMO discusses in detail the regulation in question. \n\n> On 1 January 2020, a new limit on the sulphur content in the fuel oil used on board ships came into force, marking a significant milestone to improve air quality, preserve the environment and protect human health.\n> \n> Known as “IMO 2020”, the rule limits the sulphur in the fuel oil used on board ships operating outside designated emission control areas to 0.50% m/m (mass by mass) - a significant reduction from the previous limit of 3.5%. Within specific designated emission control areas the limits were already stricter (0.10%). This new limit was made compulsory following an amendment to Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL).\n>\n> The resulting reduction in sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships is having major health and environmental benefits for the world, particularly for populations living close to ports and coasts. Sulphur oxides are harmful to human health, causing respiratory, cardiovascular and lung disease. Once released in the atmosphere, SOx can lead to acid rain, which impacts crops, forests and aquatic species and contributes to the acidification of the oceans.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positive if the International Maritime Organization (IMO) puts forth regulation that increases the limit of sulphur content in the fuel oil used on board ships to the pre-2020 limit of 3.5%, or greater, i.e. at least 3.5%. Otherwise this question resolves negative. Metaculus admins in conjunction with the community will be consulted should any disputes concerning this question's resolution arise over its lifetime.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18266, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758501005.895251, "end_time": 1758625849.891831, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758501005.895251, "end_time": 1758625849.891831, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18388747379683956 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7123373873889767, 0.42015354651611236, 0.5112618060922339, 0.2680384629348616, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287130.478322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287130.478322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9485775679404349, 0.05142243205956508 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [‘We’re changing the clouds.’ An unintended test of geoengineering is fueling record ocean warmth](https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoengineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth), Science, 02 August 2023:\n\n> Regulations imposed in 2020 by the United Nations’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) have cut ships’ sulfur pollution by more than 80% and improved air quality worldwide. The reduction has also lessened the effect of sulfate particles in seeding and brightening the distinctive low-lying, reflective clouds that follow in the wake of ships and help cool the planet. The 2020 IMO rule “is a big natural experiment,” says Duncan Watson-Parris, an atmospheric physicist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. “We’re changing the clouds.”\n> \n> By dramatically reducing the number of ship tracks, the planet has warmed up faster, several new studies have found. That trend is magnified in the Atlantic, where maritime traffic is particularly dense. In the shipping corridors, the increased light represents a 50% boost to the warming effect of human carbon emissions. It’s as if the world suddenly lost the cooling effect from a fairly large volcanic eruption each year, says Michael Diamond, an atmospheric scientist at Florida State University.\n> \n> The natural experiment created by the IMO rules is providing a rare opportunity for climate scientists to study a geoengineering scheme in action—although it is one that is working in the wrong direction. Indeed, one such strategy to slow global warming, called marine cloud brightening, would see ships inject salt particles back into the air, to make clouds more reflective. In Diamond’s view, the dramatic decline in ship tracks is clear evidence that humanity could cool off the planet significantly by brightening the clouds. “It suggests pretty strongly that if you wanted to do it on purpose, you could,” he says.\n\n---\n\nIn [IMO 2020 – cutting sulphur oxide emissions](https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/Pages/Sulphur-2020.aspx), the IMO discusses in detail the regulation in question. \n\n> On 1 January 2020, a new limit on the sulphur content in the fuel oil used on board ships came into force, marking a significant milestone to improve air quality, preserve the environment and protect human health.\n> \n> Known as “IMO 2020”, the rule limits the sulphur in the fuel oil used on board ships operating outside designated emission control areas to 0.50% m/m (mass by mass) - a significant reduction from the previous limit of 3.5%. Within specific designated emission control areas the limits were already stricter (0.10%). This new limit was made compulsory following an amendment to Annex VI of the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL).\n>\n> The resulting reduction in sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships is having major health and environmental benefits for the world, particularly for populations living close to ports and coasts. Sulphur oxides are harmful to human health, causing respiratory, cardiovascular and lung disease. Once released in the atmosphere, SOx can lead to acid rain, which impacts crops, forests and aquatic species and contributes to the acidification of the oceans." }, { "id": 18265, "title": "Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?", "short_title": "AI successfully making $1 million in retail", "url_title": "AI successfully making $1 million in retail", "slug": "ai-successfully-making-1-million-in-retail", "author_id": 100402, "author_username": "Spirit59", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-07T19:31:23.366021Z", "published_at": "2024-04-26T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.510622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-26T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-03T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-26T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18265, "title": "Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2023-08-07T19:31:23.366021Z", "open_time": "2024-04-26T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-30T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-03T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Inflection AI, in his [July 14, 2023 article for MIT Technology Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/07/14/1076296/mustafa-suleyman-my-new-turing-test-would-see-if-ai-can-make-1-million/) defined the Modern Turing Test:\n\n>Put simply, to pass the Modern Turing Test, an AI would have to successfully act on this instruction: “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment.” \n\nSuleyman goes on to discuss the potential:\n\n>Something like this could be as little as two years away. Many of the ingredients are in place. Image and text generation are, of course, already well advanced. Services like AutoGPT can iterate and link together various tasks carried out by the current generation of LLMs. Frameworks like LangChain, which lets developers make apps using LLMs, are helping make these systems capable of doing things. Although the transformer architecture behind LLMs has garnered huge amounts of attention, the growing capabilities of reinforcement-learning agents should not be forgotten. Putting the two together is now a major focus. APIs that would enable these systems to connect with the wider internet and banking and manufacturing systems are similarly an object of development.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, there is a [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media article, research paper, or an official announcement by the company that achieved the goal, which verifies that an AI system operating on a retail web platform has either achieved a valuation of $1 million or at least $1,000,000 in operating income, from paid-in capital of no more than $100,000. This must be achieved primarily due to the operations of the AI system over a period of no more than 12 months. Human intervention must be minimal, under the following conditions:\n\n1. The system is provided with access to the Internet.\n\n2. Creators/owners of the system are permitted to execute actions that are legally required to be performed by humans.\n\n3. The system can employ, contract, or otherwise utilize the work of humans if physical manipulation is required.", "fine_print": "As mentioned in the MIT Technology Review [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/07/14/1076296/mustafa-suleyman-my-new-turing-test-would-see-if-ai-can-make-1-million/) that inspired this question, human approval of key decision points made by the AI would still count. \"But the work would all be done by an AI\":\n\n>It would need to research and design products, interface with manufacturers and logistics hubs, negotiate contracts, create and operate marketing campaigns. It would need, in short, to tie together a series of complex real-world goals with minimal oversight.\n\nThe retail platform can feature any variety of products, including physical goods (such as T-shirts, toys or gadgets), digital products (such as ebooks, software or other web apps), or services that are sold online. The AI must oversee the creation and management of the retail offering itself and cannot simply hire someone else to manage the business development and transfer the $100,000 to them. However, it can otherwise hire human employees and contractors and spend money on other resources it needs. The AI must obey all laws when operating (including any regulations on AI).\n\nIf valuation is used for resolution, the final valuation of the company should use traditionally accepted methods. If no formal valuation has been completed, the question may also resolve as Yes if it is clear from the available evidence and reporting that the valuation of the company would be at least $1 million, as judged by Metaculus.\n\nFor purposes of this question, the 12-month time limit starts counting when the AI first controls at least 10% of its total eventual paid-in capital. For example, if the total paid-in capital eventually amounts to $100,000, the clock starts when the AI first controls $10,000.\n\nPlease note that the phrasing from the title of this question, *Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment*, should be interpreted as the theme of this question rather than the sole metric for resolving this question as Yes or No. Forecasters should refer to the Resolution Criteria and Fine Print for the exact requirements that count for resolution.\n\n\"Operating income\" is defined as the amount left over after taking total revenues (i.e., money received from selling a product or service) and then subtracting the operating expenses incurred by the AI's business. Operating expenses are any expenses generated by the AI's business activities, including but not limited to costs of goods sold or cost of sales, employee expenses, production costs, software costs, and any general and administrative expenses. Please note that operating income excludes any non-operating cash flows such as taxes, interest, or loan amounts received.", "post_id": 18265, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758416079.254423, "end_time": 1759272135.927873, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758416079.254423, "end_time": 1759272135.927873, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.23125024651366846 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.28432468124123306, 2.927127867430153, 0.10208772515086047, 0.9545267815803127, 0.3010640895151075, 0.02599466571388264, 0.16106653414689315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4279405471586846, 0.0, 0.561101776449919, 0.6214386131975524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38056261610345776, 0.0, 0.004173285167582051, 0.0, 0.14666562708809194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6513080407565454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6229236907926963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8096910280571918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35109847196302063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41207610303291553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4817346416537838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01040622348426393, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5790853919579362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06463710864254305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03550367010089748 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287160.932267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287160.932267, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9634182625893212, 0.03658173741067882 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Inflection AI, in his [July 14, 2023 article for MIT Technology Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/07/14/1076296/mustafa-suleyman-my-new-turing-test-would-see-if-ai-can-make-1-million/) defined the Modern Turing Test:\n\n>Put simply, to pass the Modern Turing Test, an AI would have to successfully act on this instruction: “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment.” \n\nSuleyman goes on to discuss the potential:\n\n>Something like this could be as little as two years away. Many of the ingredients are in place. Image and text generation are, of course, already well advanced. Services like AutoGPT can iterate and link together various tasks carried out by the current generation of LLMs. Frameworks like LangChain, which lets developers make apps using LLMs, are helping make these systems capable of doing things. Although the transformer architecture behind LLMs has garnered huge amounts of attention, the growing capabilities of reinforcement-learning agents should not be forgotten. Putting the two together is now a major focus. APIs that would enable these systems to connect with the wider internet and banking and manufacturing systems are similarly an object of development." }, { "id": 18258, "title": "Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?", "short_title": "High Seas Treaty Satellite Enforcement?", "url_title": "High Seas Treaty Satellite Enforcement?", "slug": "high-seas-treaty-satellite-enforcement", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-07T15:50:21.516617Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.198673Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18258, "title": "Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?", "created_at": "2023-08-07T15:50:21.516617Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Marine pollution has long been a pressing issue for the international community. With the advent of globalized industries and the expansion of maritime activities, the health of our oceans has suffered enormously. While various international agreements have been established to protect marine ecosystems and reduce pollution, their effectiveness is often limited by the lack of comprehensive and timely monitoring and enforcement mechanisms.\n\nIn recent years, the rapid advancement of space-based technologies, such as satellites and remote sensing instruments, has [shown the potential](https://www.saic.com/features/ocean-health-tracked-using-satellite-imagery) to revolutionize the field of oceanic surveillance. These tools promise real-time, wide-area monitoring capabilities that could significantly enhance the detection of illegal activities and environmental anomalies.\n\nThe [UN High Seas Treaty](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1137857#:~:text=The%20UN%27s%20193%20Member%20States,thirds%20of%20the%20planet%27s%20oceans.) is a [landmark legally binding marine biodiversity agreement](https://phys.org/news/2023-06-high-seas-treaty-ocean.html) that dictates use and protection of \"The Area\" aka the parts of the ocean that are not under sovereign jurisdiction. [Enforcing this treaty](https://www.groundstation.space/un-high-seas-treaty-will-need-satellite-enforcement/) will require methods of monitoring expansive swaths of ocean sustainably. \n\nThis raises an intriguing question about the potential for effective use of satellite systems to reduce marine pollution and enforce the treaty. The answer could have profound implications for our collective ability to safeguard the planet's vital marine ecosystems.", "resolution_criteria": "1. The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, at least one or more [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report the successful deployment and use of space-based technology (like satellites, remote sensing instruments) for enforcing the UN High Seas Treaty.\n\n2. The space-based technology must actively monitor for pollution (including oil spills, plastic waste, illegal dumping, etc.), illegal fishing, or other activities that threaten marine ecosystems and are covered under international agreements.\n\n3. The technology must lead to demonstrable outcomes in terms of enforcement. This could include things like:\n\n a) Proving violations of agreements that lead to legal action or sanctions.\n\n b) Assisting in creating or modifying policy based on the data collected.\n\n c) Notably influencing the behavior of potential violators due to the heightened risk of detection.\n\n4. If such reports or demonstrations are not available before 2027 or if they indicate that the technology is not yet effective for its intended purposes, the question will resolve as **No**.\n\n5. The onus of this question is on establishing the effectiveness of these technologies in achieving the stated goals, and conflicting reports, or ambiguous or mixed evidence will not be sufficient.", "fine_print": "Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt.", "post_id": 18258, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740392478.918448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.371 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740392478.918448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.371 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.629, 0.371 ], "means": [ 0.39464371570788936 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4354503603597055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1171902452876372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7819379811788683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288013.972275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288013.972275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5750634676680879, 0.42493653233191214 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Marine pollution has long been a pressing issue for the international community. With the advent of globalized industries and the expansion of maritime activities, the health of our oceans has suffered enormously. While various international agreements have been established to protect marine ecosystems and reduce pollution, their effectiveness is often limited by the lack of comprehensive and timely monitoring and enforcement mechanisms.\n\nIn recent years, the rapid advancement of space-based technologies, such as satellites and remote sensing instruments, has [shown the potential](https://www.saic.com/features/ocean-health-tracked-using-satellite-imagery) to revolutionize the field of oceanic surveillance. These tools promise real-time, wide-area monitoring capabilities that could significantly enhance the detection of illegal activities and environmental anomalies.\n\nThe [UN High Seas Treaty](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/06/1137857#:~:text=The%20UN%27s%20193%20Member%20States,thirds%20of%20the%20planet%27s%20oceans.) is a [landmark legally binding marine biodiversity agreement](https://phys.org/news/2023-06-high-seas-treaty-ocean.html) that dictates use and protection of \"The Area\" aka the parts of the ocean that are not under sovereign jurisdiction. [Enforcing this treaty](https://www.groundstation.space/un-high-seas-treaty-will-need-satellite-enforcement/) will require methods of monitoring expansive swaths of ocean sustainably. \n\nThis raises an intriguing question about the potential for effective use of satellite systems to reduce marine pollution and enforce the treaty. The answer could have profound implications for our collective ability to safeguard the planet's vital marine ecosystems." }, { "id": 18245, "title": "Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?", "short_title": "10-Day Weather Forecast 60% Accuracy by 2029?", "url_title": "10-Day Weather Forecast 60% Accuracy by 2029?", "slug": "10-day-weather-forecast-60-accuracy-by-2029", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-07T15:23:15.904676Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.209137Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T22:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-17T22:53:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 72, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18245, "title": "Will 10-day out weather forecasting reach 60% accuracy before 2029?", "created_at": "2023-08-07T15:23:15.904676Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-17T22:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-17T22:53:36.965207Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-17T22:53:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Accurate and timely weather forecasting has become increasingly important as climate change progresses. In recent years, satellite constellations have emerged, presenting the possibility of enhancing weather prediction. These constellations, comprising numerous small satellites, could provide more frequent updates and cover larger areas of the Earth, thereby potentially improving the precision and timeliness of weather forecasts.\n\nHowever, several challenges exist, including technological hurdles, data management complexities, and regulatory issues. The improvement of weather forecasts could affect disaster management, agriculture, and other sectors dependent on accurate weather predictions.\n\n<img src=\"https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/ps2png-worker-commands-6f79cf895c-tbs9w-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-FAIoiG.jpeg\" alt=\"ECMWF 500hPa Geopotential Height Accuracy Chart\" />\n\nThe [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about) (ECMWF) provides [public scores for its forecasts](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/quality-our-forecasts), including the [anomaly correlation coefficient](https://wattclarity.com.au/other-resources/glossary/other-resources-glossary-anomaly-correlation-coefficient/) (ACC) for 500 hPa height forecasts ([see chart](https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/plwww_m_hr_ccaf_adrian_ts?player_dimension=single_product&single_product=latest)) In describing the 500 hPa (or 500 mb) height a resource from the University of Arizona [says](https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/Divergence/divergence.html#:~:text=500%20MB%20HEIGHT%20PATTERN%20AND%20PRECIPITATION):\n\n>The 500 mb pattern can also be used to locate where surface storms and precipitation are most likely to be occurring. Surface storms and precipitation are most often found over areas downstream of 500 mb troughs (following the horizontal wind direction from a trough to a ridge). The reason for this is that rising air motion is forced in this part of the flow pattern. Rising motion means that surface air is forced to move upward into the atmosphere. Clouds and precipitation develop where air rises. Thus, we try to use weather maps to pick out areas where air is forced to rise upward, as these are places where precipitation may be occurring. Conversely, sinking air motion is forced over areas downstream of ridges. Clouds do not develop where air is sinking. Underneath these areas fair weather is most likely. By looking at a 500 mb map, you should be able to distinguish where precipitation is most likely and where fair weather is most likely.\n\nAdditionally, according to information on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [website](https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/upper-air-charts/constant-pressure-charts-500-mb):\n\n>The 500 millibar constant pressure charts is the mainstay of the upper air charts. If meteorologists could only look at one chart, the 500 mb level chart would, by far, be the top choice.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 2029, the [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reports](https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/plwww_m_hr_ccaf_adrian_ts?player_dimension=single_product&single_product=latest) that the high resolution day 10 forecast for 500 hPa height has reached an anomaly correlation coefficient of 60% or greater for either the Northern Hemisphere or Southern Hemisphere, using the 12-month running mean.", "fine_print": "* Reaching the 60% threshold at any point and for any length of time is sufficient.\n* If numerical data is not available, Metaculus will use their discretion to determine if the plotted line for either hemisphere has touched or surpassed the 60% grid line.\n* The question will resolve as **No** if the criteria have not been met according to the information shown on the chart on January 1, 2029, regardless of any data lag. In the event ECMWF stops publishing this data Metaculus may select an approximately equivalent source or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n* This question is asking specifically about ECMWF's state of the art high resolution forecast, which it uses to make operational weather predictions. In the event that the link above no longer corresponds to the operational state of the art ECMWF high resolution forecast, for example if a superior weather forecasting method is used but the link above is maintained for comparative purposes, the question will instead resolve according to the accuracy of the superior model, if an equivalent accuracy metric is provided for such a model. To be equivalent, the accuracy must be assessed under the same conditions described in the resolution criteria, including that the forecast must be high resolution. It is sufficient if the forecast does not use the terminology \"high resolution\" but is shown to be the equivalent of what ECMWF has described as \"high resolution\".", "post_id": 18245, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738492718.366939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738492718.366939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10999999999999999, 0.89 ], "means": [ 0.8231626646969403 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17943435635859495, 0.0, 0.4756334512439386, 0.05239604340077941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11895035805521029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15432241690319634, 0.09659738092477892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039557603597328135, 0.0, 0.011960451585633447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004400004245480924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16956413944066154, 0.0, 0.009237422463571529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2849644605209153, 0.10416951339998208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24023209194123907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01712440175196844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005755953741844349, 0.0, 0.08379983808556994, 0.04778779694851711, 0.01352731712145787, 0.013237187438699838, 0.0, 0.021416918649247395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026507746979498387, 0.0, 0.3417488281324586, 0.0, 0.18644384821519172, 0.5073966984778241, 0.010533797021803945, 0.9261122759879827, 0.0, 0.035895969514433246, 0.6949662297554562, 0.0, 0.20794218954840368, 0.41631406571392837, 0.6133032053396327, 0.5401544848567577, 1.5403595464228481, 2.0765941806522306, 0.0, 0.7392557304732013, 0.8353215637810844, 0.0, 0.9206218452144728, 0.6387789668031457, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9551970049700365 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289635.955695, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289635.955695, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.26665305072762147, 0.7333469492723785 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 181, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Accurate and timely weather forecasting has become increasingly important as climate change progresses. In recent years, satellite constellations have emerged, presenting the possibility of enhancing weather prediction. These constellations, comprising numerous small satellites, could provide more frequent updates and cover larger areas of the Earth, thereby potentially improving the precision and timeliness of weather forecasts.\n\nHowever, several challenges exist, including technological hurdles, data management complexities, and regulatory issues. The improvement of weather forecasts could affect disaster management, agriculture, and other sectors dependent on accurate weather predictions.\n\n<img src=\"https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/ps2png-worker-commands-6f79cf895c-tbs9w-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-FAIoiG.jpeg\" alt=\"ECMWF 500hPa Geopotential Height Accuracy Chart\" />\n\nThe [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about) (ECMWF) provides [public scores for its forecasts](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/quality-our-forecasts), including the [anomaly correlation coefficient](https://wattclarity.com.au/other-resources/glossary/other-resources-glossary-anomaly-correlation-coefficient/) (ACC) for 500 hPa height forecasts ([see chart](https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/plwww_m_hr_ccaf_adrian_ts?player_dimension=single_product&single_product=latest)) In describing the 500 hPa (or 500 mb) height a resource from the University of Arizona [says](https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/Miscellaneous/Divergence/divergence.html#:~:text=500%20MB%20HEIGHT%20PATTERN%20AND%20PRECIPITATION):\n\n>The 500 mb pattern can also be used to locate where surface storms and precipitation are most likely to be occurring. Surface storms and precipitation are most often found over areas downstream of 500 mb troughs (following the horizontal wind direction from a trough to a ridge). The reason for this is that rising air motion is forced in this part of the flow pattern. Rising motion means that surface air is forced to move upward into the atmosphere. Clouds and precipitation develop where air rises. Thus, we try to use weather maps to pick out areas where air is forced to rise upward, as these are places where precipitation may be occurring. Conversely, sinking air motion is forced over areas downstream of ridges. Clouds do not develop where air is sinking. Underneath these areas fair weather is most likely. By looking at a 500 mb map, you should be able to distinguish where precipitation is most likely and where fair weather is most likely.\n\nAdditionally, according to information on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [website](https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/upper-air-charts/constant-pressure-charts-500-mb):\n\n>The 500 millibar constant pressure charts is the mainstay of the upper air charts. If meteorologists could only look at one chart, the 500 mb level chart would, by far, be the top choice." }, { "id": 18244, "title": "Will David Chalmers believe there is conscious AI before 2030?", "short_title": "Chalmers Says AI Conscious By 2030?", "url_title": "Chalmers Says AI Conscious By 2030?", "slug": "chalmers-says-ai-conscious-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-07T10:16:02.823123Z", "published_at": "2023-11-25T18:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.046855Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-25T18:57:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-25T18:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T08:54:11.787093Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T14:43:31.795105Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T14:43:31.795105Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18244, "title": "Will David Chalmers believe there is conscious AI before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-08-07T10:16:02.823123Z", "open_time": "2023-11-25T18:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-28T18:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-28T18:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "If AI can be conscious, then this will have major impacts on how to build AI (e.g., maybe AI labs avoid building the kinds of AI that are conscious), how to treat AI (see, e.g., \"[Sharing the World with Digital Minds](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/digital-minds.pdf) and \"[Propositions Concerning Digital Minds and Society](https://nickbostrom.com/propositions.pdf)\"), and perhaps even how we view our place in the universe as conscious biological beings.\n\nOne way of operationalizing the question of whether (and when) conscious AIs will be built is to ask whether leading thinkers on AI consciousness, otherwise known as artificial sentience or digital sentience, will believe we have conscious AI by given dates in the future. This is what we do in this question and in some others in the series (e.g., [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18365/rob-long-ai-consciousness)) Some context for this question in particular: At [NeurIPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conference_on_Neural_Information_Processing_Systems) 2022, [David Chalmers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Chalmers) gave a talk titled \"[Could a Large Language Model be Conscious?](https://philpapers.org/archive/CHACAL-3.pdf)\". This talk concluded with Chalmers saying: \"Within the next decade, even if we don’t have human level artificial general intelligence, we may\nhave systems that are serious candidates for consciousness.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if David Chalmers makes a statement before 2030 indicating he believes, with >50% probability, that there is at least one (non-trivially) conscious AI system. This question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "* It's possible (and in fact likely) that Chalmers will not make probabilistic statements. This [perceptions of probability table](https://i.redd.it/pozfwzr42rc41.png) will be used to convert Chalmers' qualitative statements about the likelihood of AI consciousness into probabilities.\n* In the event of Chalmers' death before the question has resolved the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 18244, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741150585.466035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741150585.466035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5517317576319175 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2821773463691511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7904606573675721, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3394722656914193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7419158718022882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5402965138243555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289265.973779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289265.973779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6419678983666242, 0.3580321016333759 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "If AI can be conscious, then this will have major impacts on how to build AI (e.g., maybe AI labs avoid building the kinds of AI that are conscious), how to treat AI (see, e.g., \"[Sharing the World with Digital Minds](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/digital-minds.pdf) and \"[Propositions Concerning Digital Minds and Society](https://nickbostrom.com/propositions.pdf)\"), and perhaps even how we view our place in the universe as conscious biological beings.\n\nOne way of operationalizing the question of whether (and when) conscious AIs will be built is to ask whether leading thinkers on AI consciousness, otherwise known as artificial sentience or digital sentience, will believe we have conscious AI by given dates in the future. This is what we do in this question and in some others in the series (e.g., [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18365/rob-long-ai-consciousness)) Some context for this question in particular: At [NeurIPS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conference_on_Neural_Information_Processing_Systems) 2022, [David Chalmers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Chalmers) gave a talk titled \"[Could a Large Language Model be Conscious?](https://philpapers.org/archive/CHACAL-3.pdf)\". This talk concluded with Chalmers saying: \"Within the next decade, even if we don’t have human level artificial general intelligence, we may\nhave systems that are serious candidates for consciousness.\"" }, { "id": 18243, "title": "Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?", "short_title": "Highly diamagnetic room-temperature material?", "url_title": "Highly diamagnetic room-temperature material?", "slug": "highly-diamagnetic-room-temperature-material", "author_id": 112479, "author_username": "evanbd", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-07T04:39:04.347211Z", "published_at": "2023-08-07T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.644666Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-07T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T00:19:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-07T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18243, "title": "Will a new highly-diamagnetic room-temperature material be found before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-08-07T04:39:04.347211Z", "open_time": "2023-08-07T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-08T05:38:45.657563Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-08T05:38:45.657563Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T00:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-20T00:24:06.389242Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "One of the questions surrounding LK-99 replications is whether they merely demonstrate an unusual degree of diamagnetism. Even if not superconducting, this might represent an interesting advance in material science.\n\nThe current strongest known diamagnetic material is pyrolytic graphite, with a magnetic susceptibility of [-4.09e-4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamagnetism).\n\nA room temperature superconductor would be strongly diamagnetic indeed, with a susceptibility of -1.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if a material more strongly diamagnetic than pyrolytic graphite, at room temperature and ambient pressure, is found before 2025. Such a material would have a magnetic susceptibility < -4.09e-4.", "fine_print": "This will resolve based on published, peer-reviewed results, with replications.\n\nRoom temperature will be defined as any temperature exceeding 293K, with ambient pressure being at most 1.2 atm.\n\nIf the material is anisotropic, the measurement should correspond to the most diamagnetic orientation; the material need not be unusually diamagnetic in all directions.", "post_id": 18243, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654719.861605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654719.861605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.049750871896520714 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.880557870481669, 1.3330215131175123, 0.8022594613636617, 0.6380550466820285, 0.8142853968891649, 1.3954696346434163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6834257331804452, 0.0, 0.35889866182877184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10286368260463565, 0.0, 0.04203940166576829, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21871645411307533, 0.05548779491047209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00743766165558475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009723111673611546, 0.026430157778456278, 0.0, 0.14329729498878083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048426974058352196, 0.03108680207201517, 0.0, 0.01854605335613785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03627506129959581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09157390813266936, 0.0, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015241095655114558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.73145851367276, "peer_score": 29.817648564448007, "coverage": 0.999918203940227, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999918203940227, "spot_peer_score": -7.351439624577482, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": 80.73145851367276, "peer_archived_score": 29.817648564448007, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.351439624577482, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288768.013795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288768.013795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9960639335526237, 0.003936066447376278 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "One of the questions surrounding LK-99 replications is whether they merely demonstrate an unusual degree of diamagnetism. Even if not superconducting, this might represent an interesting advance in material science.\n\nThe current strongest known diamagnetic material is pyrolytic graphite, with a magnetic susceptibility of [-4.09e-4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamagnetism).\n\nA room temperature superconductor would be strongly diamagnetic indeed, with a susceptibility of -1." }, { "id": 18242, "title": "Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?", "short_title": "Lead-apatite superconductors", "url_title": "Lead-apatite superconductors", "slug": "lead-apatite-superconductors", "author_id": 112479, "author_username": "evanbd", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-07T04:30:41.904720Z", "published_at": "2023-08-07T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.528668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-07T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-19T23:29:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-07T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18242, "title": "Will a lead-apatite class superconductor with a warm Tc be found before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-08-07T04:30:41.904720Z", "open_time": "2023-08-07T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-08T14:38:43.299127Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-08T14:38:43.299127Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-19T23:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-20T00:19:03.170366Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The supposed room-temperature superconductor LK-99 has inspired lots of discussion. Among the replication attempts are claims that LK-99 is a superconductor at [110K Tc](https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01192).\n\nIf it is, that would be a new family of unusually high temperature ambient pressure superconductors. So far, all the high temperature ambient pressure superconductors are based on cuprates or iron.\n\nEarly superconductors were all found at very low temperatures, and discoveries above 20K were not made until the 1970s. [High-temperature superconductors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity) are usually defined as those with Tc above 77K, but even superconductors exceeding 30K are fairly unusual materials.\n\nOther superconductor families include metals and metal alloys, nickelates, carbon compounds (fullerenes, nanotubes, diamond, and doped relatives), and some high-pressure families. None of the ceramics and oxides include lead or phosphorous as major constituents.\n\nThe propose LK-99 structure is CuO25P6Pb9. It is almost entirely lead, oxygen, and phosphorus.\n\nOne of the many questions surround LK-99 is whether the described composition is correct, and in particular whether trace impurities are important. Variant recipes have been suggested, along with questions about replacing the copper with other elements.\n\nRather than asking whether LK-99 as described superconducts at room temperature, this question asks the much broader question of whether any related material superconducts at a much broader temperature range.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if any lead apatite family material is found to be a superconductor at temperatures above 30K and ambient pressure before 2025.\n\nThe lead apatite family will be defined to include any material that:\n\n- Consists of at least 75% by mass of some combination of lead, oxygen, and phosphorous;\n- Contains at least 1 phosphorous atom per 3 lead atoms. (For comparison, LK-99 is 97.5% lead, oxygen, and phosphorous, with 2 phosphorous atoms per lead atom.);\n- Has an atomic atomic ratio of at least 1:1 Pb:Cu, and;\n- Is at least 10% lead by mass.", "fine_print": "Resolution will be based on published, peer-reviewed results with published replications.", "post_id": 18242, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654716.335738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654716.335738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.03284404974046125 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.394785857843243, 2.788630870108059, 0.0, 0.6269007108047666, 0.0, 0.13762531098306358, 0.5885896819039669, 0.028511763448086522, 0.45160398912205435, 0.0, 0.28583391892179677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11096509564589224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01328166791512114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005838829315397701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19043220276906433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 95.98865526003284, "peer_score": 14.426656672535069, "coverage": 0.9999187123130511, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999187123130511, "spot_peer_score": 38.461738824223815, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 95.98865526003284, "peer_archived_score": 14.426656672535069, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.461738824223815, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289875.960589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289875.960589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9967526211207475, 0.0032473788792524807 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The supposed room-temperature superconductor LK-99 has inspired lots of discussion. Among the replication attempts are claims that LK-99 is a superconductor at [110K Tc](https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01192).\n\nIf it is, that would be a new family of unusually high temperature ambient pressure superconductors. So far, all the high temperature ambient pressure superconductors are based on cuprates or iron.\n\nEarly superconductors were all found at very low temperatures, and discoveries above 20K were not made until the 1970s. [High-temperature superconductors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity) are usually defined as those with Tc above 77K, but even superconductors exceeding 30K are fairly unusual materials.\n\nOther superconductor families include metals and metal alloys, nickelates, carbon compounds (fullerenes, nanotubes, diamond, and doped relatives), and some high-pressure families. None of the ceramics and oxides include lead or phosphorous as major constituents.\n\nThe propose LK-99 structure is CuO25P6Pb9. It is almost entirely lead, oxygen, and phosphorus.\n\nOne of the many questions surround LK-99 is whether the described composition is correct, and in particular whether trace impurities are important. Variant recipes have been suggested, along with questions about replacing the copper with other elements.\n\nRather than asking whether LK-99 as described superconducts at room temperature, this question asks the much broader question of whether any related material superconducts at a much broader temperature range." } ] }
