Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3120
{ "count": 5977, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3140", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3100", "results": [ { "id": 18235, "title": "Will an international organization release a report estimating that space-based technologies have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country before 2031?", "short_title": "5% Increase in Crop Yields Due to Space Tech?", "url_title": "5% Increase in Crop Yields Due to Space Tech?", "slug": "5-increase-in-crop-yields-due-to-space-tech", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-06T17:28:46.397927Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.492880Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18235, "title": "Will an international organization release a report estimating that space-based technologies have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-06T17:28:46.397927Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The advancement of space-based technologies has been postulated as a game-changing factor in multiple sectors, [including agriculture](https://ts2.space/en/the-benefits-of-satellite-imaging-for-precision-agriculture-and-irrigation/). From GPS-guided tractors to the use of satellite imagery for crop monitoring, space tech has the potential to revolutionize agricultural practices. [Several countries and private companies are exploring these technologies](https://www.kws.com/us/en/company/press/world-of-farming/better-yields-thanks-to-satellites/) to tackle issues such as food security, climate change impacts, and efficient land use.\n\nHowever, while the potential is immense, the question remains: how impactful are these technologies in real, quantifiable terms? Some claim these technologies are niche and do not yet contribute substantially to agricultural yields at a national scale. Others argue that we are on the brink of a space tech-led agricultural revolution that could help sustain the growing global population.", "resolution_criteria": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, an international organization releases a report estimating that in any country the use of space-based technology has increased overall crop yields in the country by 5% or more.\n\n2. International Organization: The report must be released by an internationally recognized organization, such as the United Nations, World Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), or any similar body. Reports by national governments, private companies, or non-international NGOs will not satisfy this criterion.\n\n3. Verification: The report must explicitly estimate that space-based technologies (e.g., satellites for weather forecasting, GPS for precision agriculture, etc.) have contributed to a 5% or greater increase in agricultural yields in any country. The increase must be compared to a baseline that did not use these technologies and should be adjusted for other variables affecting yield.\n\n3. Availability: The report must be publicly available, and written in any language, but an official English translation or summary should be available for verification.\n\n4. Clarification on Agricultural Yields: The term \"agricultural yields\" refers to the amount of a crop produced per unit area of land. The 5% increase must pertain to a key crop or set of crops that make up a significant (roughly 10% share or larger) of the country in question's agricultural output and not for a minor crop that constitutes only a small portion of agricultural output. Countries for which [arable land](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_use_statistics_by_country) makes up less than 1% of the land area will not be considered.", "fine_print": "* If an estimate is produces that provides a range without a central estimate the median of the lower and upper values will be used.\n* Metaculus will not conduct an exhaustive search of all relevant publications and will determine resolution based on information available from standard web searches.", "post_id": 18235, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756169071.664554, "end_time": 1759858701.388764, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756169071.664554, "end_time": 1759858701.388764, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6832162735847334 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287366.929291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287366.929291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.35022368345351906, 0.6497763165464809 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The advancement of space-based technologies has been postulated as a game-changing factor in multiple sectors, [including agriculture](https://ts2.space/en/the-benefits-of-satellite-imaging-for-precision-agriculture-and-irrigation/). From GPS-guided tractors to the use of satellite imagery for crop monitoring, space tech has the potential to revolutionize agricultural practices. [Several countries and private companies are exploring these technologies](https://www.kws.com/us/en/company/press/world-of-farming/better-yields-thanks-to-satellites/) to tackle issues such as food security, climate change impacts, and efficient land use.\n\nHowever, while the potential is immense, the question remains: how impactful are these technologies in real, quantifiable terms? Some claim these technologies are niche and do not yet contribute substantially to agricultural yields at a national scale. Others argue that we are on the brink of a space tech-led agricultural revolution that could help sustain the growing global population." }, { "id": 18233, "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Trump conviction odds", "url_title": "Trump conviction odds", "slug": "trump-conviction-odds", "author_id": 103745, "author_username": "mrbenmoore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-05T15:41:40.706943Z", "published_at": "2023-09-02T19:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.554344Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-02T19:47:00Z", "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-21T17:19:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-02T19:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 142, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18233, "title": "Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2023-08-05T15:41:40.706943Z", "open_time": "2023-09-02T19:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-04T19:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-04T19:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-21T17:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-21T17:20:04.704513Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, has been involved in an array of legal battles post his presidency. Currently facing three indictments with the prospect of a fourth, his legal circumstances have sparked curiosity about the possible outcomes.\n\n**Assessing the Odds**\n\nEstimating the odds of a jury reaching a guilty verdict in at least one of Trump's cases can be complex. Historically, federal conviction rates in the U.S have been relatively high, often surpassing 90%. However, this figure doesn't necessarily imply the same odds for Trump's case. The likelihood of a guilty verdict depends heavily on the evidence, the nature of the crimes, the lawyers involved, the jury's composition, and public opinion, among other factors.\n\n**The \"Stealth Juror\" Scenario**\n\nOne of the factors complicating the trial outcome is the possibility of a 'stealth juror'. In this context, a stealth juror refers to a passionate Trump supporter (who didn't vote in 2016 and 2020 for whatever reasons) pretending to be neutral who, despite being obliged to judge impartially, could be biased in their judgement. If at least one juror refuses to agree with the others, it could lead to a hung jury, which may complicate the process further.\n\nU.S courts use a process called voir dire to select impartial jurors. While this process is usually effective, it is not foolproof. A passionate supporter could potentially hide their bias, impacting the verdict. However, such a scenario is relatively rare and challenging to pull off. Furthermore, even if a stealth juror manages to cause a hung jury in one case, the likelihood of this happening consistently across multiple trials is low.\n\nBesides backing Trump, a juror could have other motivations for opposing a guilty verdict in a federal trial against a former president.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at least one judge announces Trump's guilt of at least one count, as reported by credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18233, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654930.951714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654930.951714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.022746036394448495 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.351813758781393, 1.840772295886686, 0.2441529350322033, 0.12761398412885208, 0.3279308368929252, 0.6687372902288398, 0.0, 0.014142526157609709, 0.004545573445747369, 0.011583847594907888, 0.001141602189997898, 0.07831915781474846, 0.008885399320468062, 0.0042061066322698045, 0.007110811854803821, 0.01830951858643546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005706564189538635, 0.0, 0.0015197988629243285, 0.010058844558037279, 0.0, 3.93784722937276e-05, 0.0, 0.002810642744659784, 0.0, 0.0066132009301480416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006145641768466423, 0.0, 0.0005635465852353808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004773136048236703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.14787175564293e-05, 0.02210206272724872, 0.0009346274086930763, 0.0004848352575332589, 0.0, 0.0001645881233618983, 0.000570143935660086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00789651423301768, 0.00019205720325645798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01082526138799208, 0.0, 0.017178573282488403, 0.0009608994145580616, 0.0, 0.003053155732890866, 6.518546068432183e-05, 0.21647901725021387, 0.0007586831482506013, 0.0, 0.003312910787396866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002937784340971446, 0.06299989680124439, 0.0, 0.0010161309883942903, 0.0016663552678108826, 0.0, 0.0018624847795181232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07421985392089438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07761685045629446 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 42.36205870373384, "peer_score": 33.948438012551755, "coverage": 0.9999218891462405, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999218891462405, "spot_peer_score": 94.78490920613403, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 42.36205870373384, "peer_archived_score": 33.948438012551755, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 94.78490920613403, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290023.475508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290023.475508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 559, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, has been involved in an array of legal battles post his presidency. Currently facing three indictments with the prospect of a fourth, his legal circumstances have sparked curiosity about the possible outcomes.\n\n**Assessing the Odds**\n\nEstimating the odds of a jury reaching a guilty verdict in at least one of Trump's cases can be complex. Historically, federal conviction rates in the U.S have been relatively high, often surpassing 90%. However, this figure doesn't necessarily imply the same odds for Trump's case. The likelihood of a guilty verdict depends heavily on the evidence, the nature of the crimes, the lawyers involved, the jury's composition, and public opinion, among other factors.\n\n**The \"Stealth Juror\" Scenario**\n\nOne of the factors complicating the trial outcome is the possibility of a 'stealth juror'. In this context, a stealth juror refers to a passionate Trump supporter (who didn't vote in 2016 and 2020 for whatever reasons) pretending to be neutral who, despite being obliged to judge impartially, could be biased in their judgement. If at least one juror refuses to agree with the others, it could lead to a hung jury, which may complicate the process further.\n\nU.S courts use a process called voir dire to select impartial jurors. While this process is usually effective, it is not foolproof. A passionate supporter could potentially hide their bias, impacting the verdict. However, such a scenario is relatively rare and challenging to pull off. Furthermore, even if a stealth juror manages to cause a hung jury in one case, the likelihood of this happening consistently across multiple trials is low.\n\nBesides backing Trump, a juror could have other motivations for opposing a guilty verdict in a federal trial against a former president." }, { "id": 18231, "title": "Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?", "short_title": "Trump participates in first debate?", "url_title": "Trump participates in first debate?", "slug": "trump-participates-in-first-debate", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-04T23:50:38.760319Z", "published_at": "2023-08-09T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.542677Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-09T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-24T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-24T03:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-09T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 191, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18231, "title": "Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?", "created_at": "2023-08-04T23:50:38.760319Z", "open_time": "2023-08-09T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-14T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-14T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-24T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-24T03:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-24T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the midst of [increasing legal challenges](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61084161), Donald Trump remains the [most likely Republican nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/) for President in 2024.\n\nTrump can win the nomination via the [2024 Republican Presidential Primary](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/republican-candidates-2024-gop-presidential-hopefuls-list/).\n\nThe first major event of the Primary is the first sanctioned debate. Seven candidates have [qualified](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/republican-candidates-2024-gop-presidential-hopefuls-list/), including Trump. However, Trump has not said whether he will participate in the debate. In July, he [said in an interview](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/16/donald-trump-republican-primary-debate-00106498):\n\n> Ronald Reagan didn’t do it and a lot of other people didn’t do it. When you have a big lead, you don’t do it.\n\n> We have a lead of 50 and 60 points in some cases. … You’re leading people by 50 and 60 points, you say why would you be doing a debate? It’s actually not fair. Why would you let somebody that’s at zero or one or two or three be popping you with questions?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is on the debate stage as a participant for the first Republican presidential debate, which is [currently scheduled](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/20/guide-republican-presidential-primary-debate-00102702) for August 23, 2023 in Milwaukee, WI.", "fine_print": "If the date of the debate is moved, or if the scheduled debate is cancelled, the question resolves based on whether Trump participates in the first debate of the 2024 presidential election season that is [sanctioned by the Republican National Committee](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums#:~:text=The%20Republican%20National%20Committee%20(RNC,official%20RNC%2Dsanctioned%20primary%20debates.)).\n\nIf no debates are held, the question is annulled.", "post_id": 18231, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692838484.617201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692838484.617201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.026948848551567692 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.21465990609669, 9.742796888917685, 1.4820410359497487, 0.20745802536551167, 0.024106170289383656, 0.3040792733749193, 0.0009099563431049128, 0.0, 0.39349974737255883, 0.0, 0.0039017344823060263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021351561802205286, 0.0, 0.8675945412633763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.349082332034397, 0.0, 0.03747160837747583, 0.00013351516707628568, 2.351205473437231e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.188411413433847e-05, 0.00042150133658319346, 5.433864113013448e-05, 0.0001630823210560015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006152361673299815, 6.145721382287539e-05, 0.00028488621256038665, 0.026106709513768173, 0.0, 0.0003613796287234519, 0.0005554568438460635, 9.311997051725617e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001797178317602369, 0.004543193101120405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003110016580193801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47540979029483066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.07879887320863e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.779946390035713e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004261909411417313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.625368204060968e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003943250286473862 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.444061027858687, "coverage": 0.9999840396278155, "baseline_score": 67.46739683263799, "spot_peer_score": 23.182651183280097, "peer_archived_score": 22.444061027858687, "baseline_archived_score": 67.46739683263799, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.182651183280097 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692838484.664372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692838484.664372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 191, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 616, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the midst of [increasing legal challenges](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-61084161), Donald Trump remains the [most likely Republican nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/) for President in 2024.\n\nTrump can win the nomination via the [2024 Republican Presidential Primary](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/republican-candidates-2024-gop-presidential-hopefuls-list/).\n\nThe first major event of the Primary is the first sanctioned debate. Seven candidates have [qualified](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/republican-candidates-2024-gop-presidential-hopefuls-list/), including Trump. However, Trump has not said whether he will participate in the debate. In July, he [said in an interview](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/16/donald-trump-republican-primary-debate-00106498):\n\n> Ronald Reagan didn’t do it and a lot of other people didn’t do it. When you have a big lead, you don’t do it.\n\n> We have a lead of 50 and 60 points in some cases. … You’re leading people by 50 and 60 points, you say why would you be doing a debate? It’s actually not fair. Why would you let somebody that’s at zero or one or two or three be popping you with questions?" }, { "id": 18230, "title": "Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?", "short_title": "Cancer Pill Phase III Trials Before 2027?", "url_title": "Cancer Pill Phase III Trials Before 2027?", "slug": "cancer-pill-phase-iii-trials-before-2027", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-04T19:21:41.345635Z", "published_at": "2023-08-05T21:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.594180Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-05T21:02:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-05T21:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18230, "title": "Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2023-08-04T19:21:41.345635Z", "open_time": "2023-08-05T21:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-07T21:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-07T21:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In [an announcement published August 1, 2023](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/city-of-hope-scientists-develop-targeted-chemotherapy-able-to-kill-all-solid-tumors-in-preclinical-research-301888576.html), City of Hope, a cancer research organization, described the results of initial testing of AOH1996, a pill designed to [selectively kill cancer cells](https://www.cell.com/cell-chemical-biology/fulltext/S2451-9456(23)00221-0?rss=yes).\n\nThe pill has entered Phase I clinical trials, with a [study start date of August 12, 2022](https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05227326), and it was announced on October 19, 2022, [that the first human patient had received a dose](https://www.cityofhope.org/cancer-center-announces-first-patient-has-received-city-hopes-novel-potentially-cancer-stopping).\n\nIn a [blog post in Science](https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/new-mode-cancer-treatment) Derek Lowe says the following:\n\n>The compound has entered a Phase I trial in humans on the basis of the above data, and I very much look forward to seeing it advance to Phase II, where it will doubtless be used in combination with several existing therapies.\n\n[Antidote describes clinical trial phases as follows](https://www.antidote.me/blog/how-long-do-clinical-trial-phases-take):\n\n>**Phase 1:** Phase 1 of a clinical trial will typically be open to 20 and 100 participants, and will last for several months. This phase is not intended to evaluate whether the treatment in question is effective — instead, the purpose of this phase is to measure safety by checking for adverse side effects. Phase 1 trials typically look for healthy volunteers, but may seek people with the condition being studied depending on the type of research in question.\n>\n>**Phase 2:** Once a drug has been deemed safe from the Phase 1 results, it is able to progress to Phase 2. Around 70% of drugs progress to the second phase, which is designed to measure safety in a larger group of volunteers (typically several hundred), while also measuring the effectiveness of the treatment on the participants.\n>\n>**Phase 3:** About 33% of drugs will make it past the second phase and go on to Phase 3. The third phase of a clinical trial recruits the largest number of participants, with enrollment goals typically in the thousands. Phase 3 is intended to measure both safety and efficacy for a longer duration, usually lasting between one and four years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that AOH1996 has begun Phase III clinical trials.", "fine_print": "* The clinical trial need not be for AOH1996 as a sole treatment, a Phase III clinical trial of AOH1996 alongside other treatments is sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n* If there is uncertainty regarding whether the Phase III trial has begun the \"actual study start date\" will be used as defined by clinicaltrials.gov: \"The actual date on which the first participant was enrolled in a clinical study. \"\n* Metaculus may wait for further verification or updates from clinicaltrials.gov or other sources. Resolution will be backdated to the \"actual study start date\", if available.", "post_id": 18230, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756249639.728193, "end_time": 1761890213.181158, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18657416214225636 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756249639.728193, "end_time": 1761890213.181158, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18657416214225636 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8134258378577437, 0.18657416214225636 ], "means": [ 0.22167500183056651 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5974017539523433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.927705213345072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289318.311978, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289318.311978, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8939634328073633, 0.10603656719263661 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In [an announcement published August 1, 2023](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/city-of-hope-scientists-develop-targeted-chemotherapy-able-to-kill-all-solid-tumors-in-preclinical-research-301888576.html), City of Hope, a cancer research organization, described the results of initial testing of AOH1996, a pill designed to [selectively kill cancer cells](https://www.cell.com/cell-chemical-biology/fulltext/S2451-9456(23)00221-0?rss=yes).\n\nThe pill has entered Phase I clinical trials, with a [study start date of August 12, 2022](https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05227326), and it was announced on October 19, 2022, [that the first human patient had received a dose](https://www.cityofhope.org/cancer-center-announces-first-patient-has-received-city-hopes-novel-potentially-cancer-stopping).\n\nIn a [blog post in Science](https://www.science.org/content/blog-post/new-mode-cancer-treatment) Derek Lowe says the following:\n\n>The compound has entered a Phase I trial in humans on the basis of the above data, and I very much look forward to seeing it advance to Phase II, where it will doubtless be used in combination with several existing therapies.\n\n[Antidote describes clinical trial phases as follows](https://www.antidote.me/blog/how-long-do-clinical-trial-phases-take):\n\n>**Phase 1:** Phase 1 of a clinical trial will typically be open to 20 and 100 participants, and will last for several months. This phase is not intended to evaluate whether the treatment in question is effective — instead, the purpose of this phase is to measure safety by checking for adverse side effects. Phase 1 trials typically look for healthy volunteers, but may seek people with the condition being studied depending on the type of research in question.\n>\n>**Phase 2:** Once a drug has been deemed safe from the Phase 1 results, it is able to progress to Phase 2. Around 70% of drugs progress to the second phase, which is designed to measure safety in a larger group of volunteers (typically several hundred), while also measuring the effectiveness of the treatment on the participants.\n>\n>**Phase 3:** About 33% of drugs will make it past the second phase and go on to Phase 3. The third phase of a clinical trial recruits the largest number of participants, with enrollment goals typically in the thousands. Phase 3 is intended to measure both safety and efficacy for a longer duration, usually lasting between one and four years." }, { "id": 18229, "title": "Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?", "short_title": "2024 Third Party Republican?", "url_title": "2024 Third Party Republican?", "slug": "2024-third-party-republican", "author_id": 124170, "author_username": "Skoogeer", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-04T15:25:26.891225Z", "published_at": "2023-08-07T23:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.259987Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-07T23:55:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T17:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T17:46:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-07T23:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18229, "title": "Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election?", "created_at": "2023-08-04T15:25:26.891225Z", "open_time": "2023-08-07T23:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-09T23:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-09T23:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T17:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T17:48:59.800475Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-06T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T17:46:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "One of the potential risks to Donald Trump’s presidential hopes in 2024 is whether a high profile Republican presidential candidate opts to run as an independent, sapping votes from centrist voters who dislike the former President but would otherwise vote along with their party.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on the date of the US Presidential Election in 2024, both of these conditions are true:\n\n- A candidate who earned at least one delegate in the 2024 Republican Primary is actively campaigning for the office of US President in 2024\n- That same candidate is not listed as the nominee of the Republican (or Democratic) party in 26 or more US states.\n\nFor this question, the candidate may not be nominated by the Republican or Democratic party for any reason. They may start their own party, join another third-party, campaign as an independent, or claim to be a Republican but not receive the party's endorsement, asking voters to write them in.\n\nThe determination of whether a candidate is considered to be \"actively campaigning\" will be at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.", "fine_print": "In this question, the District of Columbia is included as a US State.\n\nThe date of the US Presidential Election will be the date when polls are open for in-person voting in 26 or more US States (currently scheduled for November 5, 2024). If there is no such date occurring between October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 18229, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730822584.815146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730822584.815146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.013562332774318673 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.371754112964759, 2.3813029383027864, 0.12098568606878847, 0.10874329401578631, 0.41908090661840397, 0.03841839143689773, 0.0, 0.020354001336032917, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.07864456972235534, 0.027172461172235558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09784722664542772, 0.0, 0.03550367010089748, 0.04559318956273326, 0.0, 0.004173285167582051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01040622348426393, 0.05138228252970245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04031214257072945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07218472244402722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.67571053336417, "peer_score": 6.769279965895975, "coverage": 0.9992275507202144, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998883520614478, "spot_peer_score": 13.57994749713754, "baseline_archived_score": 87.67571053336417, "peer_archived_score": 6.769279965895975, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.57994749713754 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286897.574922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286897.574922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "One of the potential risks to Donald Trump’s presidential hopes in 2024 is whether a high profile Republican presidential candidate opts to run as an independent, sapping votes from centrist voters who dislike the former President but would otherwise vote along with their party." }, { "id": 18221, "title": "Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Russia Bans Apple Before 2025?", "url_title": "Russia Bans Apple Before 2025?", "slug": "russia-bans-apple-before-2025", "author_id": 116620, "author_username": "メオマリ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-03T22:14:41.405627Z", "published_at": "2023-08-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.256086Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18221, "title": "Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-08-03T22:14:41.405627Z", "open_time": "2023-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-13T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T12:33:46.524569Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June the [Russian Federal Security Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service) (FSB) [issued a public statement](http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/press/message/single.htm%21id%3D10439739%40fsbMessage.html) claiming that Apple collaborates heavily with American Intelligence Agencies, particularly the [US National Security Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Agency) (NSA), and sends them Russian data. That did not prevent numerous Russian officials from taking photos with their iPhones [during the economic forum in Saint-Petersburg though](https://t.me/faridaily24/933).\n\nHowever, at the end of June there [were reports](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/22/russian-govt-officials-banned-from-bringing-iphones-into-cabinet-meetings-report-a81590) that Russian government officials were barred from using their iPhones during cabinet meetings. On July 16, 2023, there [were reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-moves-to-ban-iphones-for-government-officials-2023-7) that some Russian government ministries were barring employees from using iPhones on the job.\n\nOn August 2, 2023, [Russia's Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roskomnadzor) (Roskomnadzor), [was reported](https://tass.ru/obschestvo/18433053) (according to machine translation) to have denied claims that they were preparing to ban the sale of Apple equipment.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that any of these three things has happened before January 1, 2025:\n\n1. A Presidential decree is issued banning Apple products in Russia\n2. Roskomnadzor issues a public ban on Apple products in Russia\nor\n3. a federal law is passed by the legislature and signed by Putin, banning Apple products in Russia\n\nFor the purposes of this question a \"ban\" will be considered to be a prohibition on the sale of Apple products in Russia. The ban need not take effect before January 1, 2025, only the issuance or enactment of a law that will ban the sale of Apple products is required.", "fine_print": "A ban with some exceptions will still be considered to be a ban so long as information from credible sources indicates that Apple products cannot be sold to most of the public in Russia.", "post_id": 18221, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735657185.923208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735657185.923208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.014549350822611593 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.704411243697392, 5.568317125327126, 0.33687037128987607, 0.4284663202436456, 0.00497455622240795, 0.059498252885295255, 0.2611024408512512, 0.006095433581409484, 0.007317111975919482, 0.0, 0.3623899213276461, 0.032718567573612516, 0.01591623825581385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1351453996240435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013816868512948603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004046517214306785, 0.010217135346786867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037861112940804624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008686660616741733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.1524128936151, "peer_score": 8.8231275879744, "coverage": 0.9999514005216499, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999514005216499, "spot_peer_score": 6.962262256123085, "spot_baseline_score": 83.18772411916731, "baseline_archived_score": 91.1524128936151, "peer_archived_score": 8.8231275879744, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.962262256123085, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 83.18772411916731 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286986.4821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286986.4821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 127, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June the [Russian Federal Security Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service) (FSB) [issued a public statement](http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/press/message/single.htm%21id%3D10439739%40fsbMessage.html) claiming that Apple collaborates heavily with American Intelligence Agencies, particularly the [US National Security Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Agency) (NSA), and sends them Russian data. That did not prevent numerous Russian officials from taking photos with their iPhones [during the economic forum in Saint-Petersburg though](https://t.me/faridaily24/933).\n\nHowever, at the end of June there [were reports](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/22/russian-govt-officials-banned-from-bringing-iphones-into-cabinet-meetings-report-a81590) that Russian government officials were barred from using their iPhones during cabinet meetings. On July 16, 2023, there [were reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-moves-to-ban-iphones-for-government-officials-2023-7) that some Russian government ministries were barring employees from using iPhones on the job.\n\nOn August 2, 2023, [Russia's Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roskomnadzor) (Roskomnadzor), [was reported](https://tass.ru/obschestvo/18433053) (according to machine translation) to have denied claims that they were preparing to ban the sale of Apple equipment." }, { "id": 18194, "title": "Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?", "short_title": "Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2030?", "url_title": "Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2030?", "slug": "commercial-room-temp-superconductor-by-2030", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-02T21:45:47.343581Z", "published_at": "2023-08-02T21:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.018503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-02T21:50:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-02T21:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18194, "title": "Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-08-02T21:45:47.343581Z", "open_time": "2023-08-02T21:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-03T11:44:26.908450Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-03T11:44:26.908450Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/), but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it [could revolutionize the electronics industry](https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849).\n\nPrevious efforts in [high-temperature superconductivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity#History) have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 [gigapascals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)) (GPa) and [below 138 Kelvin](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417328/) (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0) has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim [has been called into question](https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/).\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\" alt=\"Timeline of Superconductivity\" />\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\">PJRay</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0\">CC BY-SA 4.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a superconductor has been used in a commercial application at room temperature and ambient pressure. For the purposes of this question a commercial application will be considered to be one which is used as an intermediate product in the production of another product or service, or in other words not a novelty item or toy.\n\nTo qualify, all of the following must be confirmed by publicly available information about the superconductor itself or must have been demonstrated through credible published research for the material of which the superconductor is made:\n\n* The superconductor has been used in a fully-functional commercial product (testing, development, or research and design do not qualify)\n* The superconductor operates at a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius or higher\n* The superconductor operates at a pressure of 2 atmospheres or less\n* The superconductor satisfies standard criteria typically used to define a superconductor, such as exhibiting the Meissner effect and having zero or negligible resistance below the critical temperature.", "fine_print": "Metaculus will make a determination as to whether these criteria are satisfied and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear.", "post_id": 18194, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758516103.452059, "end_time": 1758777220.409323, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758516103.452059, "end_time": 1758777220.409323, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.013389883390603414 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.989788030660615, 3.5092599351489415, 0.2561569348226772, 0.30210892231638564, 0.0, 0.18412022371060144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022263149504593318, 0.0, 0.04599817297320736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005412544205777419, 0.0, 0.4482977324842707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00743766165558475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003576932888935743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288011.970012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288011.970012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9977481958853269, 0.0022518041146730736 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 214, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/), but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it [could revolutionize the electronics industry](https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849).\n\nPrevious efforts in [high-temperature superconductivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity#History) have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 [gigapascals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)) (GPa) and [below 138 Kelvin](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417328/) (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0) has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim [has been called into question](https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/).\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\" alt=\"Timeline of Superconductivity\" />\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\">PJRay</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0\">CC BY-SA 4.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*" }, { "id": 18192, "title": "Will the Israeli High Court uphold the \"reasonableness\" law?", "short_title": "Israel \"Reasonableness\" Law Upheld?", "url_title": "Israel \"Reasonableness\" Law Upheld?", "slug": "israel-reasonableness-law-upheld", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-02T18:53:06.035161Z", "published_at": "2023-08-11T14:13:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.407848Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-11T14:13:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-01T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-01T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-11T14:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18192, "title": "Will the Israeli High Court uphold the \"reasonableness\" law?", "created_at": "2023-08-02T18:53:06.035161Z", "open_time": "2023-08-11T14:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-13T14:13:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-13T14:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-02T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-01T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the \"reasonableness\" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was \"unreasonable\".\n\nThe new law amends Israel's [Basic Law regarding the judiciary](https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf). Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the [Knesset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset) has passed a series of [Basic Laws](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Laws_of_Israel) that \"[established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/constitution-of-israel).\" The translated full text of the new law [reads](https://www.timesofisrael.com/committee-hardens-reasonableness-bill-strengthening-protection-for-government/):\n\n>Notwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.\n\nThe Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be [heard on September 12, 2023](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unprecedented-15-judge-panel-to-hear-petitions-against-coalitions-reasonableness-law/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the High Court of Israel upholds the \"reasonableness\" law. To be considered upheld the court must reject the petitions against the law or otherwise issue a final ruling that allows the law to remain in effect. An interim ruling not directly on the merits, such as freezing or delaying implementation, does not qualify.", "fine_print": "If no such ruling is issued before October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 18192, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701410426.290747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701410426.290747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.22483992871070177 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6216146519279362, 0.0, 0.02904148917975771, 0.0, 0.07331325067154816, 0.0575181573859948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044423031630246905, 2.034471040617473, 0.1902336590916781, 0.19512076372490594, 0.20926539955466936, 0.9292991145104746, 1.0, 0.0, 0.42500489163223787, 0.0, 0.800591043524475, 1.2961869334148997, 0.0, 0.9177209978712977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7221823805811646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08235174299721564, 0.6360167605213906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4119537064659858, 0.868859531492223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05352099478599455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6156767318358678 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.05953370452715, "coverage": 0.9999672260442933, "baseline_score": 50.73906468482865, "spot_peer_score": -11.107152549031282, "peer_archived_score": 16.05953370452715, "baseline_archived_score": 50.73906468482865, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.107152549031282 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701416583.644342, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701416583.644342, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9368594350869848, 0.06314056491301519 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the \"reasonableness\" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was \"unreasonable\".\n\nThe new law amends Israel's [Basic Law regarding the judiciary](https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf). Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the [Knesset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset) has passed a series of [Basic Laws](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Laws_of_Israel) that \"[established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/constitution-of-israel).\" The translated full text of the new law [reads](https://www.timesofisrael.com/committee-hardens-reasonableness-bill-strengthening-protection-for-government/):\n\n>Notwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.\n\nThe Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be [heard on September 12, 2023](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unprecedented-15-judge-panel-to-hear-petitions-against-coalitions-reasonableness-law/)." }, { "id": 18191, "title": "Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the \"reasonableness\" law before October 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Israel Court Ruling on Reform by October 1?", "url_title": "Israel Court Ruling on Reform by October 1?", "slug": "israel-court-ruling-on-reform-by-october-1", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-02T18:34:17.250388Z", "published_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.978153Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18191, "title": "Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the \"reasonableness\" law before October 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-02T18:34:17.250388Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-08T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-08T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the \"reasonableness\" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was \"unreasonable\".\n\nThe new law amends Israel's [Basic Law regarding the judiciary](https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf). Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the [Knesset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset) has passed a series of [Basic Laws](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Laws_of_Israel) that \"[established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/constitution-of-israel).\" The translated full text of the new law [reads](https://www.timesofisrael.com/committee-hardens-reasonableness-bill-strengthening-protection-for-government/):\n\n>Notwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.\n\nThe Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be [heard on September 12, 2023](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unprecedented-15-judge-panel-to-hear-petitions-against-coalitions-reasonableness-law/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Israeli High Court has issued a ruling on the \"reasonableness\" law. The ruling must either uphold or strike down the law in whole or in part; a ruling not on the merits, such as freezing or delaying implementation, does not qualify.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18191, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696105578.730379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696105578.730379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025561966834930762 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.724027221629465, 6.843254461345685, 0.46688709172617116, 0.46074880903322646, 0.11646479492898522, 0.28711283214365957, 0.09656516271681595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11052357267986135, 0.5867938441500535, 0.1468257776419513, 0.0, 0.001183031738426886, 0.11707007356349668, 0.006526864650835598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0059866825919037, 0.9730540714317588, 0.0034595108646869087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022556935951370632, 0.008700874110765798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008395848169131099, 0.0, 0.005161562278526571, 0.0, 0.21617707533377314, 0.0050165334663289625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005663221576601098, 0.0, 0.0040677391584953825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003848024427075739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014156090758466822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019453053750058099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012453674481811782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.2077347573969934e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007050588977482321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020862966315705173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005281365444147849, 0.00010828654134764054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.87480340290081, "coverage": 0.9999756927492125, "baseline_score": 53.956276171878756, "spot_peer_score": 3.5438140264607068, "peer_archived_score": 12.87480340290081, "baseline_archived_score": 53.956276171878756, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.5438140264607068 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696105578.864826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696105578.864826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 663, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the \"reasonableness\" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was \"unreasonable\".\n\nThe new law amends Israel's [Basic Law regarding the judiciary](https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf). Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the [Knesset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset) has passed a series of [Basic Laws](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Laws_of_Israel) that \"[established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/constitution-of-israel).\" The translated full text of the new law [reads](https://www.timesofisrael.com/committee-hardens-reasonableness-bill-strengthening-protection-for-government/):\n\n>Notwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.\n\nThe Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be [heard on September 12, 2023](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unprecedented-15-judge-panel-to-hear-petitions-against-coalitions-reasonableness-law/)." }, { "id": 18190, "title": "Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?", "short_title": "Indictments for \"Co-Conspirators\" By Aug. 11?", "url_title": "Indictments for \"Co-Conspirators\" By Aug. 11?", "slug": "indictments-for-co-conspirators-by-aug-11", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-02T17:27:47.624268Z", "published_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.539036Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18190, "title": "Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-02T17:27:47.624268Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-03T15:05:39.406357Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-03T15:05:39.406357Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-11T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-10T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Former President Donald Trump was [indicted for the third time](https://apnews.com/article/trump-indicted-jan-6-investigation-special-counsel-debb59bb7a4d9f93f7e2dace01feccdc) on August 1, 2023, on felony charges related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Six anonymous co-conspirators are listed in [the indictment](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23893878/trump-dc-indictment.pdf). While the co-conspirators are anonymous, the details in the indictment are sufficient to allege their identities. [CNN alleges](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/01/politics/co-conspirators-trump-indictment/index.html) that the known co-conspirators are as follows:\n\n* Co-conspirator 1: [Rudy Giuliani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Giuliani)\n* Co-conspirator 2: [John Eastman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Eastman)\n* Co-conspirator 3: [Sidney Powell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidney_Powell)\n* Co-conspirator 4: [Jeffrey Clark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Clark)\n* Co-conspirator 5: [Kenneth Chesebro](https://www.cambridgeday.com/2022/11/16/cambridge-lawyer-chesebro-gets-some-spotlight-for-work-helping-trump-overturn-2020-election/)\n* Co-conspirator 6: identity unknown", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after August 2, 2023 and before August 11, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that any of the following people have been indicted for a federal felony:\n\n* Rudy Giuliani\n* John Eastman\n* Sidney Powell\n* Jeffrey Clark\n* Kenneth Chesebro\n\nAny federal felony indictment qualifies, and need not be directly related to Donald Trump's election interference indictment.", "fine_print": "Whether the indictment is sealed or not is immaterial, only whether credible sources report that one of the listed persons has been indicted.", "post_id": 18190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691701585.068965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691701585.068965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.029632089018248754 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.295042501108913, 8.065600545335048, 2.313345536789314, 0.21136145876144188, 0.4090944607204709, 0.9082065109839379, 0.012514947868269602, 0.059404042739326854, 0.23608164356974304, 0.03128077033446885, 0.22860889533146314, 0.06907049790903583, 0.0, 0.015051164342284526, 0.0, 0.006249799226141158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01522709157824471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009766894894432364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023167965795815007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004766249178816012, 0.001135834834678922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022921926586655966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3849346318661529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.675833055884095, "coverage": 0.999851548904647, "baseline_score": 80.44409664045747, "spot_peer_score": 15.490649427474915, "peer_archived_score": 10.675833055884095, "baseline_archived_score": 80.44409664045747, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.490649427474915 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691701585.09034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691701585.09034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9992276339283509, 0.0007723660716490815 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 299, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Former President Donald Trump was [indicted for the third time](https://apnews.com/article/trump-indicted-jan-6-investigation-special-counsel-debb59bb7a4d9f93f7e2dace01feccdc) on August 1, 2023, on felony charges related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Six anonymous co-conspirators are listed in [the indictment](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23893878/trump-dc-indictment.pdf). While the co-conspirators are anonymous, the details in the indictment are sufficient to allege their identities. [CNN alleges](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/01/politics/co-conspirators-trump-indictment/index.html) that the known co-conspirators are as follows:\n\n* Co-conspirator 1: [Rudy Giuliani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Giuliani)\n* Co-conspirator 2: [John Eastman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Eastman)\n* Co-conspirator 3: [Sidney Powell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidney_Powell)\n* Co-conspirator 4: [Jeffrey Clark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Clark)\n* Co-conspirator 5: [Kenneth Chesebro](https://www.cambridgeday.com/2022/11/16/cambridge-lawyer-chesebro-gets-some-spotlight-for-work-helping-trump-overturn-2020-election/)\n* Co-conspirator 6: identity unknown" }, { "id": 18186, "title": "Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?", "short_title": "ECOWAS Intervention in Niger By Oct. 1, 2023?", "url_title": "ECOWAS Intervention in Niger By Oct. 1, 2023?", "slug": "ecowas-intervention-in-niger-by-oct-1-2023", "author_id": 127640, "author_username": "Pelagia425", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-01T20:31:36.855355Z", "published_at": "2023-08-10T16:43:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.705773Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-10T16:43:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T14:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T14:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-10T16:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 141, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18186, "title": "Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-01T20:31:36.855355Z", "open_time": "2023-08-10T16:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-11T00:08:39.548619Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-11T00:08:39.548619Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T14:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T14:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-03T14:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*The resolution criteria and some of the background have been copied and edited from [this shorter term question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18181/ecowas-intervention-2023/).*\n\n---\n\nOn 26 July 2023, a [coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an [ECOWAS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States) (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS [issued an ultimatum](https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-us-join-ecowas-in-call-for-niger-military-junta-to-halt-coup/7204716.html) on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week.\n\nECOWAS has a [history of military intervention](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/1/timeline-a-history-of-ecowas-military-interventions-in-three-decades) in local conflicts with a potential for regional destabilization, including in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, and The Gambia.\n\nOn August 6th the [deadline had passed](https://www.voanews.com/a/west-african-leaders-to-meet-on-niger-after-junta-defies-deadline/7215069.html), and as of August 9, 2023, ECOWAS has not launched a military intervention, [saying it will hold a second emergency summit](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/ecowas-calls-for-second-emergency-summit-to-discuss-niger-coup) on Thursday August 10th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2023, ECOWAS has announced a military intervention in Niger to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and civilian rule, and there are credible media reports of troops acting as part of an ECOWAS mission entering or attempting to enter the territory of Niger.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18186, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696105763.798161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696105763.798161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015649219660892336 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.546494791867145, 6.587900942381943, 1.6411227899920253, 0.5291938649376844, 0.3828613122649639, 1.6314829975771017, 0.06465611328528331, 0.3095688125708174, 0.13094268798498077, 0.028164722972541443, 0.15833527421267077, 0.004194556879642525, 0.0357809968153877, 0.0, 0.0249227195165835, 0.11707482888794132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003118300165855562, 0.0, 0.0009535653705399581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016109028389612038, 0.0, 0.0038399313174647507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001645881233618983, 0.0002937784340971446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007110811854803821, 0.0, 0.0005203127944114797, 0.0006099057432257295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000544608623388499, 0.0002563951339187345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001268480624659815, 0.00024353592081288728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004302102731740687, 0.0, 6.518546068432183e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.93784722937276e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 8.069351508216675e-05, 0.0, 0.024997253624574355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.23461679211141, "coverage": 0.999873227768652, "baseline_score": 63.35610314719559, "spot_peer_score": -44.83505200251129, "peer_archived_score": 20.23461679211141, "baseline_archived_score": 63.35610314719559, "spot_peer_archived_score": -44.83505200251129 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696105763.845478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696105763.845478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 621, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*The resolution criteria and some of the background have been copied and edited from [this shorter term question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18181/ecowas-intervention-2023/).*\n\n---\n\nOn 26 July 2023, a [coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an [ECOWAS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States) (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS [issued an ultimatum](https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-us-join-ecowas-in-call-for-niger-military-junta-to-halt-coup/7204716.html) on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week.\n\nECOWAS has a [history of military intervention](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/1/timeline-a-history-of-ecowas-military-interventions-in-three-decades) in local conflicts with a potential for regional destabilization, including in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, and The Gambia.\n\nOn August 6th the [deadline had passed](https://www.voanews.com/a/west-african-leaders-to-meet-on-niger-after-junta-defies-deadline/7215069.html), and as of August 9, 2023, ECOWAS has not launched a military intervention, [saying it will hold a second emergency summit](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/ecowas-calls-for-second-emergency-summit-to-discuss-niger-coup) on Thursday August 10th." }, { "id": 18181, "title": "Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?", "short_title": "ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023?", "url_title": "ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023?", "slug": "ecowas-intervention-before-august-12-2023", "author_id": 121058, "author_username": "Sourian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-01T03:57:23.619741Z", "published_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.467294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-12T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-12T11:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 151, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18181, "title": "Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-01T03:57:23.619741Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-03T14:56:23.495361Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-03T14:56:23.495361Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-12T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-12T11:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-12T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-11T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-11T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 26 July 2023, a [coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an [ECOWAS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States) (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS [issued an ultimatum](https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-us-join-ecowas-in-call-for-niger-military-junta-to-halt-coup/7204716.html) on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before August 12, 2023, ECOWAS has announced a military intervention in Niger to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and civilian rule, and there are credible media reports of troops acting as part of an ECOWAS mission entering or attempting to enter the territory of Niger.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18181, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691790879.081745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691790879.081745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.017736255863713694 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.8713303081321, 9.224885925094895, 1.0370473681255001, 0.5326715336904315, 0.28849149814371033, 0.3470828259613902, 0.06157588046885444, 3.403212156462719e-05, 0.01040589918169206, 0.03522299278110513, 0.050052633436080886, 0.01105273841012126, 0.004320469972749898, 0.05863398005077013, 0.0, 0.14259647395007677, 7.792384123367405e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03572715704350148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006411763253375005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015374879400591828, 0.0, 0.00012696730607986522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047166895293806216, 0.0001695005388690276, 0.00036003590913050794, 0.0, 0.10663642727732853, 0.04906608421967747, 0.0, 0.00014714322698529736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03154169804357445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02469360944656078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06072664306793718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010047254887444886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004371928219451056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02657055344850956 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.75566346855663, "coverage": 0.999902172712485, "baseline_score": 73.21464507367408, "spot_peer_score": 12.969204723266138, "peer_archived_score": 8.75566346855663, "baseline_archived_score": 73.21464507367408, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.969204723266138 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691790879.13689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691790879.13689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9990303622850538, 0.000969637714946224 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 780, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 26 July 2023, a [coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an [ECOWAS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States) (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS [issued an ultimatum](https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-us-join-ecowas-in-call-for-niger-military-junta-to-halt-coup/7204716.html) on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week." }, { "id": 18177, "title": "Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?", "short_title": "Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025", "url_title": "Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025", "slug": "room-temp-superconductor-replicated-by-2025", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111848, "username": "juancambeiro" }, { "id": 112479, "username": "evanbd" } ], "created_at": "2023-08-01T02:37:44.358171Z", "published_at": "2023-08-01T07:05:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.609206Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-01T07:05:00Z", "comment_count": 103, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T21:33:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-01T07:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 492, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18177, "title": "Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?", "created_at": "2023-08-01T02:37:44.358171Z", "open_time": "2023-08-01T07:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-01T07:45:55.241360Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-01T07:45:55.241360Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T21:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T21:40:39.172479Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called [\"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if a peer-reviewed replication of the superconductivity of LK-99 that confirms the main findings is published before January 1, 2025. The replication must be conducted by researchers at institution(s) independent from the authors of the original study.\n\nA confirmatory replication would have to include the following:\n\n* Reproduction of the synthesis of LK-99 \n\n* Confirmation that the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (126.85C) — the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting \n\n* Confirmation that the resistivity drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm — true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature\n\nTo be considered a confirmed replication the research must replicate all of the above.", "fine_print": "* Resolves ambiguous if there are no credible reports of a peer-reviewed replication attempt before January 1, 2025.\n* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether a replication satisfies these criteria and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear.", "post_id": 18177, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654932.625063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 489, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654932.625063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 489, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.023342648760844062 ], "histogram": [ [ 30.64614891707963, 7.709131160025006, 1.6940698354572188, 0.10248374704659721, 0.00855274840355627, 0.12127635172134776, 0.7890793112235284, 0.014329435162829933, 0.0002749899297662409, 0.0002022728640414647, 0.3347233957507475, 0.018298723569182565, 1.785897276732955e-05, 0.0, 5.758735710308358e-07, 0.056373416297792904, 0.004607159111084907, 8.884370135847698e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005132472922090908, 0.2585141376389758, 0.0, 4.114719092634712e-06, 1.7076357357163454e-05, 1.3223559012390423e-05, 1.6325081653205092e-05, 0.0028362640214510877, 8.404688190686943e-07, 0.0, 0.03897528919594561, 0.0, 0.02751331498970392, 4.688176887058241e-05, 0.0, 3.15149812235447e-05, 5.778340380514335e-06, 3.574849811563991e-05, 2.1330466473355526e-06, 2.0400109917650006e-07, 1.562916083535903e-05, 0.0, 6.0134761537989994e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.141051539184246e-07, 8.268287589099974e-05, 6.972718634090216e-07, 1.0226097213478414e-05, 2.6532483080341623e-06, 0.0, 3.427189863735763e-05, 3.285133203173795e-05, 8.484901172518032e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 4.035143435467508e-05, 1.8402868375615725e-09, 0.019304013276299183, 2.4319815325477213e-05, 2.884671971859199e-09, 7.3727908490040455e-06, 2.9302686347978548e-05, 1.424801103628073e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.694533096824427, 0.07664858749611442, 5.956969815132405e-08, 0.0014201465600501909, 0.0, 1.382111169619096e-05, 6.88637735418449e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1165673523002793e-05, 0.0, 2.3302823184405986e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 6.8657565687085724e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 7.95676941101522e-09, 0.0, 1.239171900457699e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9468940346964986e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10347146298674963 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.06894074044838, "peer_score": 34.66986337399039, "coverage": 0.9999975592255117, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999975592255117, "spot_peer_score": 21.51909138880531, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": 98.06894074044838, "peer_archived_score": 34.66986337399039, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.51909138880531, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287289.592606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287289.592606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 58, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1637, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called [\"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated." }, { "id": 18174, "title": "Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?", "short_title": "Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?", "url_title": "Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?", "slug": "solar-power-dominates-renewables-by-2031", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-31T17:03:05.872018Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T08:10:14.190875Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-07-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18174, "title": "Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-07-31T17:03:05.872018Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-07-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/primary-sub-energy-source\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nSolar power has seen significant growth in recent years, alongside wind power. As of September 1, 2023, solar power is the third largest renewable, behind hydropower and wind power, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in any year from 2023 to 2030, inclusive, the total global consumption of primary energy from solar power on Earth exceeds the consumption of primary energy from all other individual renewable energy sources on Earth for the year (meaning solar must be the largest source of renewable energy, it need not exceed the sum of all other renewables). For the purposes of this question, renewables include, but are not limited to, solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and bioenergy. Resolution will be determined according to data published in the [Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review).", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve as **Yes** when the first qualifying report is made, even if the conditions are no longer met in later revisions from scheduled publications.\n* If the Statistical Review no longer reports data for a relevant year, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion, or annul the question.\n* If no other sources are readily available which provide consumption data alternate measures, such as generation, may be used at Metaculus' discretion.", "post_id": 18174, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757923803.387132, "end_time": 1759185133.561524, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757923803.387132, "end_time": 1759185133.561524, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7447272258215886 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0053628669779807745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015651176037633063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004407189337132444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18308997278465447, 0.0, 0.00764267295316474, 0.31167199523019246, 0.0, 0.025034331476012812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24826285979550225, 0.06871034895382641, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05647213919671424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07558440864786083, 0.20102478750550035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3103995711552965, 0.010489473131136438, 0.0, 0.04604314668505586, 0.0, 0.03331085633663661, 0.3471403354143071, 0.012156317823425493, 0.0, 0.2206422790733935, 1.3495734047331922, 0.879817146123457, 0.0, 0.062350202415679574, 0.0, 1.5106759899808848, 0.1535071897926381, 1.8331082724736971, 0.041436542674184174, 0.0, 0.28594692364387453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0726647890203567, 0.16675237628327297, 0.6326680595244999, 0.7231248136457471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7724138726447535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6007311481223386 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290180.885886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290180.885886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2796606250863133, 0.7203393749136867 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/primary-sub-energy-source\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nSolar power has seen significant growth in recent years, alongside wind power. As of September 1, 2023, solar power is the third largest renewable, behind hydropower and wind power, respectively." }, { "id": 18172, "title": "Will there be a year before 2074 when the percentage of renewable energy supported by space-based power systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems?", "short_title": "Space-Based Power Exceeds Renewables by 2074?", "url_title": "Space-Based Power Exceeds Renewables by 2074?", "slug": "space-based-power-exceeds-renewables-by-2074", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-31T16:56:54.245604Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.528042Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2074-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:00:40.939600Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18172, "title": "Will there be a year before 2074 when the percentage of renewable energy supported by space-based power systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems?", "created_at": "2023-07-31T16:56:54.245604Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2074-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The quest for sustainable and renewable energy has recently been a cornerstone of human progress. Traditional, earth-based renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, have expanded their global market share. Simultaneously, advances in space technology have given rise to the concept of space-based power generation, which proposes capturing solar energy in space where the sun always shines and transmitting it to Earth.\n\n[Space-based solar power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-based_solar_power) (SBSP) theoretically offers an unlimited, constant, and environmentally friendly power source, free from the intermittency problems of earth-based renewable energy. However, its practical implementation [faces significant challenges](https://www.wsj.com/articles/beaming-solar-energy-from-space-gets-a-step-closer-fc903658) today, including technical issues, high costs, and the absence of a regulatory framework.\n\nGiven these circumstances, it raises the intriguing question: Will there be a year in the next 50 years when the percentage of renewable energy capacity directly supported by space-based power generation systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems? The answer could greatly influence global energy policy, technological investment, and environmental sustainability.", "resolution_criteria": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in any year from 2023 to 2073, the total global capacity of renewable energy directly supported by space-based power generation systems exceeds the total global capacity of renewable energy supported by earth-based power generation systems.\n2. The renewable energy capacity directly supported by space-based systems includes any energy generated in space transmitted to and used on Earth.\n3. The capacity of renewable energy supported by earth-based systems includes any renewable energy generated on Earth (including but not limited to solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and bioenergy).\n4. Evidence of this occurrence must come from reputable sources, such as international bodies (like the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-clean-energy-progress-2023)) scientific journals, or credible media sources reporting on official data.\n5. If the total capacities are equal in a given year, this will not be sufficient for resolution; the space-based capacity must be greater.", "fine_print": "In the event there are conflicting reports from credible sources Metaculus may use their discretion to select the source they deem most methodologically sound or reliable or may resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 18172, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745107940.781278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745107940.781278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.0682383134398626 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8450767146000707, 3.9135343158681413, 1.0110688823644178, 0.3058323220141224, 0.8031650779384272, 0.2748312226056533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.377031538556385, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6593994371229919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288056.454178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288056.454178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9651802088558685, 0.034819791144131446 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The quest for sustainable and renewable energy has recently been a cornerstone of human progress. Traditional, earth-based renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, have expanded their global market share. Simultaneously, advances in space technology have given rise to the concept of space-based power generation, which proposes capturing solar energy in space where the sun always shines and transmitting it to Earth.\n\n[Space-based solar power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-based_solar_power) (SBSP) theoretically offers an unlimited, constant, and environmentally friendly power source, free from the intermittency problems of earth-based renewable energy. However, its practical implementation [faces significant challenges](https://www.wsj.com/articles/beaming-solar-energy-from-space-gets-a-step-closer-fc903658) today, including technical issues, high costs, and the absence of a regulatory framework.\n\nGiven these circumstances, it raises the intriguing question: Will there be a year in the next 50 years when the percentage of renewable energy capacity directly supported by space-based power generation systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems? The answer could greatly influence global energy policy, technological investment, and environmental sustainability." }, { "id": 18170, "title": "Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?", "short_title": "Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?", "url_title": "Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?", "slug": "commercial-room-temp-superconductor-by-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-31T16:04:41.414310Z", "published_at": "2023-08-01T12:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.638501Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-01T12:40:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T21:41:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-01T12:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 161, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18170, "title": "Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-07-31T16:04:41.414310Z", "open_time": "2023-08-01T12:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-01T14:19:35.096081Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-01T14:19:35.096081Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T21:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T21:44:31.622147Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/), but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it [could revolutionize the electronics industry](https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849).\n\nPrevious efforts in [high-temperature superconductivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity#History) have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 [gigapascals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)) (GPa) and [below 138 Kelvin](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417328/) (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0) has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim [has been called into question](https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/).\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\" alt=\"Timeline of Superconductivity\" />\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\">PJRay</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0\">CC BY-SA 4.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a superconductor has been used in a commercial application at room temperature and ambient pressure. For the purposes of this question a commercial application will be considered to be one which is used as an intermediate product in the production of another product or service, or in other words not a novelty item or toy.\n\nTo qualify, all of the following must be confirmed by publicly available information about the superconductor itself or must have been demonstrated through credible published research for the material of which the superconductor is made:\n\n* The superconductor has been used in a fully-functional commercial product (testing, development, or research and design do not qualify)\n* The superconductor operates at a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius or higher\n* The superconductor operates at a pressure of 2 atmospheres or less\n* The superconductor satisfies standard criteria typically used to define a superconductor, such as exhibiting the Meissner effect and having zero or negligible resistance below the critical temperature.", "fine_print": "Metaculus will make a determination as to whether these criteria are satisfied and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear.", "post_id": 18170, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654535.804478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654535.804478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005997793561710122 ], "histogram": [ [ 19.327478951149946, 3.567593133509041, 0.2898564861082087, 0.010196177922349812, 0.08481493420885902, 0.057410718011183165, 0.09887586822151155, 0.0008659711369530226, 5.650999187104954e-05, 3.125121709754941e-05, 0.0, 0.007722991264452858, 0.0, 0.05424955452663764, 0.0, 0.09274449061765155, 0.008235752535017807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0941779268580518, 0.0, 3.868608937826673e-05, 0.0, 0.02161093536451051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011379028476303113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3738524686593568e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.7074980302278084e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00518984740189505 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 99.19372608181563, "peer_score": 8.735166822731015, "coverage": 0.9999814255920422, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999814255920422, "spot_peer_score": -2.8674036379587236, "spot_baseline_score": 11.103131238874395, "baseline_archived_score": 99.19372608181563, "peer_archived_score": 8.735166822731015, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.8674036379587236, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 11.103131238874395 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287926.405631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287926.405631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 354, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/), but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it [could revolutionize the electronics industry](https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849).\n\nPrevious efforts in [high-temperature superconductivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity#History) have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 [gigapascals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)) (GPa) and [below 138 Kelvin](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417328/) (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0) has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim [has been called into question](https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/).\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\" alt=\"Timeline of Superconductivity\" />\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\">PJRay</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0\">CC BY-SA 4.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*" }, { "id": 18168, "title": "Will at least two of the largest Abrahamic religions recognize the arrival of the Messiah in the next 200 years?", "short_title": "Arrival of the Messiah in the next 200 years?", "url_title": "Arrival of the Messiah in the next 200 years?", "slug": "arrival-of-the-messiah-in-the-next-200-years", "author_id": 106870, "author_username": "FNORD", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-31T10:40:54.393998Z", "published_at": "2023-08-12T15:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.677902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-12T15:32:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2224-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-12T15:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18168, "title": "Will at least two of the largest Abrahamic religions recognize the arrival of the Messiah in the next 200 years?", "created_at": "2023-07-31T10:40:54.393998Z", "open_time": "2023-08-12T15:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-14T10:25:46.898914Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-14T10:25:46.898914Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2224-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The concept of a [Messiah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messiah), a savior or liberator of a group of people, is a central component of [Abrahamic religions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abrahamic_religions). The individual claiming to be the Messiah may demonstrate knowledge, abilities, or characteristics that are widely believed to be consistent with descriptions of the Messiah in religious texts of Christianity, Judaism or Islam.\n\n*(This question was entirely drafted by GPT-4)*", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if two major Abrahamic religions (Christianity, Judaism, and Islam) each have one major branch acknowledge the arrival of the same Messiah after August 11, 2023 and before 2224. \n\nFor the purposes of this question, a major branch of a faith is a branch that counts at least 500,000 members. At the time of question writing, major branches include (but are not limited to):\n\n- Christianity: Catholicism; the major Protestant branches, such as Baptists, Methodists, Lutherans, Anglicans, Pentecostals, and Evangelicals; and Orthodox Christianity\n- Judaism: Orthodox, Conservative, and Reform\n- Islam: Sunni and Shia\n\nThe question requires at least two of the three major religions to acknowledge the same Messiah, with each acknowledgement coming from a major branch of the religion, and will resolve on the date of the second such acknowledgement.\n\nAcknowledgement requires statements by multiple recognized leaders of the faith tradition, including the highest leader of that tradition (e.g. the Pope for Catholicism) if such a figure exists. If such a figure does not exist, recognized leaders will be considered to be those at the upper echelons of authority within the faith or prominent leaders in the faith, as determined from characterizations made by credible sources.", "fine_print": "* This question will close to new predictions 2 years after its posting.\n* If at any point there is not a branch of Christianity, Islam, or Judaism that counts more than 500,000 members, the question is annulled.\n* Examples of recognized leaders of the faith might be members of the [Baptist World Alliance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baptist_World_Alliance) leadership for Baptists, the [Grand Imam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Imam_of_al-Azhar) in Sunni Islam, and other similar stations or leadership roles in other branches. This may include popular televangelists within the faith who have received a large following. Recognized leaders will generally not be considered to be those who are prominent for reasons outside of faith leadership, for example athletes or politicians. If a religion has no recognized highest leader then statements from multiple recognized leaders as defined in this question will qualify, even if other recognized leaders disagree.", "post_id": 18168, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758175050.139, "end_time": 1759433266.635, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758175050.139, "end_time": 1759433266.635, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.009891263200703762 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0798702170793044, 1.748825998465465, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287170.787566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287170.787566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9970173444987455, 0.0029826555012545785 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The concept of a [Messiah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messiah), a savior or liberator of a group of people, is a central component of [Abrahamic religions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abrahamic_religions). The individual claiming to be the Messiah may demonstrate knowledge, abilities, or characteristics that are widely believed to be consistent with descriptions of the Messiah in religious texts of Christianity, Judaism or Islam.\n\n*(This question was entirely drafted by GPT-4)*" }, { "id": 18161, "title": "Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?", "short_title": "Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?", "url_title": "Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?", "slug": "mohamed-bazoum-in-power-by-august-31-2023", "author_id": 124007, "author_username": "borgia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-30T17:38:33.501117Z", "published_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.788997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-01T17:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-01T17:57:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 153, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18161, "title": "Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-30T17:38:33.501117Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-03T14:42:15.949082Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-03T14:42:15.949082Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-01T17:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-01T17:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-01T17:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 26, 2023, Nigerien President [Mohamed Bazoum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bazoum) was [deposed in a military coup](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66320895). According to [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/30/west-african-govts-give-niger-coup-leaders-a-week-to-cede-power):\n\n>West African countries have imposed sanctions on Niger’s new military leaders, threatening to use force if they fail to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum within a week, after the latest coup in the Sahel region raised alarm on the continent.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>And the African Union has given the military in Niger two weeks to restore “constitutional authority”.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Mohamed Bazoum has been effectively re-instated as President of Niger before August 31, 2023, otherwise it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question \"effectively re-instated\" will be defined as credible sources reporting that Mohamed Bazoum holds the presidency **and** is capable of exerting presidential authority. Metaculus will make an assessment of whether Bazoum is capable of exerting presidential authority based on reports from credible sources. Characterizations from credible sources similar to those listed below may be considered as strong evidence. Note that this list is not exhaustive:\n * Bazoum has returned to power\n * The coup has failed\n * The constitution has been reinstated\n* In the event reports conflict or are unclear Metaculus may resolve the question as **ambiguous**.", "post_id": 18161, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693424143.357715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693424143.357715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.014700577980968627 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.991579608224205, 4.557085545157923, 0.2221542869083854, 0.1571156809922329, 0.7954330937119958, 0.07509287294604752, 0.0009017219824727531, 0.0, 5.985619839723628e-05, 0.0, 0.9315815922898651, 0.00013567947413321504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017133292407506171, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1544321616161003e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.530164004591139e-05, 0.0, 0.4929176846368868, 0.005561510951105748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.892582142158005e-05, 0.0, 1.7468639477822135e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010471822495116637 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.492721183604748, "coverage": 0.9999905493072055, "baseline_score": 93.64496177097713, "spot_peer_score": -5.542734810940507, "peer_archived_score": 7.492721183604748, "baseline_archived_score": 93.64496177097713, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.542734810940507 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693424143.401864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693424143.401864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 662, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 26, 2023, Nigerien President [Mohamed Bazoum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bazoum) was [deposed in a military coup](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66320895). According to [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/30/west-african-govts-give-niger-coup-leaders-a-week-to-cede-power):\n\n>West African countries have imposed sanctions on Niger’s new military leaders, threatening to use force if they fail to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum within a week, after the latest coup in the Sahel region raised alarm on the continent.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>And the African Union has given the military in Niger two weeks to restore “constitutional authority”." }, { "id": 18135, "title": "Will Palantir's Market Cap exceed $80 Billion by the end of 2026?", "short_title": "Palantir's Market Cap $80B by 2026?", "url_title": "Palantir's Market Cap $80B by 2026?", "slug": "palantirs-market-cap-80b-by-2026", "author_id": 151184, "author_username": "AW001", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-28T21:19:55.879704Z", "published_at": "2023-09-02T21:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.356923Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-02T21:24:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-13T13:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-02T21:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18135, "title": "Will Palantir's Market Cap exceed $80 Billion by the end of 2026?", "created_at": "2023-07-28T21:19:55.879704Z", "open_time": "2023-09-02T21:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-04T21:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-04T21:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-13T13:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-08T19:46:34.280881Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T13:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR), a leading software company that aids organizations in analyzing vast data sets, has seen steady growth since its public listing. As of mid-2023, Palantir's market capitalization is around $38 billion. The company plays a crucial role in the national security framework of the United States and its allies and is poised to grow further amid the rapidly emerging geopolitical AI threats.\n\nThis question asks: Given its increasing importance in maintaining national security and its role in combating AI threats, will Palantir Technologies Inc.'s market capitalization exceed $80 billion on or before December 31, 2026?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the market capitalization of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) surpasses $80 billion on any trading day on or before December 31, 2026, according to official data from NYSE. If this value has not been achieved by that date, the question will resolve negatively.\n\nPredictions on this question could consider numerous factors. These include Palantir's future business strategies and growth in the national security sector, the company's potential to help address geopolitical AI threats, the overall health of the tech industry, and the broader economic environment.", "fine_print": "Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share. The resolution will be based on the nominal market cap, unadjusted for inflation.", "post_id": 18135, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728283628.51918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728283628.51918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7472473223279801 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9284232151922808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.22188647333713657, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.630383327902745 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.5626978438078805, "coverage": 0.30980056000235506, "baseline_score": 8.642544777760747, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999730556791098, "spot_peer_score": 4.976737230628853, "peer_archived_score": 3.5626978438078805, "baseline_archived_score": 8.642544777760747, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.976737230628853 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288670.870555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288670.870555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.42072202012064674, 0.5792779798793533 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR), a leading software company that aids organizations in analyzing vast data sets, has seen steady growth since its public listing. As of mid-2023, Palantir's market capitalization is around $38 billion. The company plays a crucial role in the national security framework of the United States and its allies and is poised to grow further amid the rapidly emerging geopolitical AI threats.\n\nThis question asks: Given its increasing importance in maintaining national security and its role in combating AI threats, will Palantir Technologies Inc.'s market capitalization exceed $80 billion on or before December 31, 2026?" }, { "id": 18134, "title": "Will Moderna Rank Among the Top 5 Biotech Companies Globally by Market Cap Before the End of 2028?", "short_title": "Moderna in Global Top 5 Biotech by 2028?", "url_title": "Moderna in Global Top 5 Biotech by 2028?", "slug": "moderna-in-global-top-5-biotech-by-2028", "author_id": 151184, "author_username": "AW001", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-28T21:03:54.047695Z", "published_at": "2023-09-02T21:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.197134Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-02T21:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-02T21:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18134, "title": "Will Moderna Rank Among the Top 5 Biotech Companies Globally by Market Cap Before the End of 2028?", "created_at": "2023-07-28T21:03:54.047695Z", "open_time": "2023-09-02T21:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-04T21:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-04T21:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA), a pioneer in mRNA-based vaccine technology, has made significant strides in the biotech industry, most notably through its critical role in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. As of mid-2023, Moderna's market cap ranks it outside of the top 5 biotech companies globally.\n\nThis question asks: Will Moderna ascend to be one of the top 5 biotech companies globally by market capitalization on or before December 31, 2028?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) ranks among the top 5 biotech companies globally by market capitalization on any day on or before December 31, 2028, according to official data from a reputable source like Bloomberg or Reuters. If Moderna does not reach this position by the specified date, the question will resolve negatively.\n\nPredictions on this question could take into account numerous factors including the overall health of the biotech sector, potential breakthroughs in Moderna's pipeline, competitive landscape, global market trends, and the long-term impact and acceptance of mRNA technology.", "fine_print": "Note: Biotech companies for this question are defined as companies primarily engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and/or marketing of products based on genetic analysis and genetic engineering.", "post_id": 18134, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750096114.788546, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.221 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750096114.788546, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.221 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.779, 0.221 ], "means": [ 0.2612128792373068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.27120971924598375, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6122828572923774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.9624720026808239, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287243.381803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287243.381803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8579738929760807, 0.14202610702391924 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA), a pioneer in mRNA-based vaccine technology, has made significant strides in the biotech industry, most notably through its critical role in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. As of mid-2023, Moderna's market cap ranks it outside of the top 5 biotech companies globally.\n\nThis question asks: Will Moderna ascend to be one of the top 5 biotech companies globally by market capitalization on or before December 31, 2028?" } ] }
](http://description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg)){kind=link}