Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3120
{ "count": 6358, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3140", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3100", "results": [ { "id": 21994, "title": "Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?", "short_title": "Maximum speed achieved by the spacecraft 2075", "url_title": "Maximum speed achieved by the spacecraft 2075", "slug": "maximum-speed-achieved-by-the-spacecraft-2075", "author_id": 171511, "author_username": "NaumovVD", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-23T17:00:45.069933Z", "published_at": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T19:32:48.030022Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-12-30T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21994, "title": "Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?", "created_at": "2024-03-23T17:00:45.069933Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-15T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-15T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-12-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2075-12-30T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In his article [Solar One: A Proposal for The First Crewed \nInterstellar Spacecraft](https://arxiv.org/format/2007.11474), Alberto Caballero describes the concept and design of a new type of spacecraft capable of reaching an average of 22% the speed of light. Can engineers make a spacecraft by 2075 that can achieve this goal?\n\nAccording to Caballero, a speed of 20% of light would be enough to reach the supposed habitable planets within just 20 years of flight, potentially unlocking a new era of interstellar exploration.\n\nThe fastest spacecraft as of now, the [Parker Solar Probe](https://www.space.com/41447-parker-solar-probe-fastest-spacecraft-ever.html), has reached speeds of about 192 km/s, which is approximately 0.064% of the speed of light. \n\nThe idea behind fast ships is to use the pressure of light, which travels unhindered through space. Light pressure can be generated by a powerful laser located on the Earth's surface, which will shine a beam of 100 GW [already achievable](https://laserstars.org/history/lasers.html) for sufficient time and with great focusing accuracy, contingent upon improvements in technologies. \n\nSuch spacecrafts can be sent to achieve all required information about surface of planets and the state of interstellar space. After reaching the destination it could be transformed to a [Fresnel lens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fresnel_imager) to focus the signal and then send information back to Earth.\n\nThis question is important because it explores the feasibility of these advancements in spacecraft speed, especially if these advancements can enable speeds ≥ 0.22c by 2075.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2076, a human-made spacecraft achieves a speed of at least 66,000 km/s or 0.22c (i.e., 0.22 times the speed of light) using the Sun's center of mass as its reference frame, as reported by NASA, the European Space Agency or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if no credible sources have confirmed the achievement of this speed by the resolution date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21994, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762198357.306378, "end_time": 1781896205.991, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762198357.306378, "end_time": 1781896205.991, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.19920500344841774 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3678794411714424, 1.842924195849962, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0822097325987572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290303.169236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290303.169236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9645690172380759, 0.03543098276192408 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In his article [Solar One: A Proposal for The First Crewed \nInterstellar Spacecraft](https://arxiv.org/format/2007.11474), Alberto Caballero describes the concept and design of a new type of spacecraft capable of reaching an average of 22% the speed of light. Can engineers make a spacecraft by 2075 that can achieve this goal?\n\nAccording to Caballero, a speed of 20% of light would be enough to reach the supposed habitable planets within just 20 years of flight, potentially unlocking a new era of interstellar exploration.\n\nThe fastest spacecraft as of now, the [Parker Solar Probe](https://www.space.com/41447-parker-solar-probe-fastest-spacecraft-ever.html), has reached speeds of about 192 km/s, which is approximately 0.064% of the speed of light. \n\nThe idea behind fast ships is to use the pressure of light, which travels unhindered through space. Light pressure can be generated by a powerful laser located on the Earth's surface, which will shine a beam of 100 GW [already achievable](https://laserstars.org/history/lasers.html) for sufficient time and with great focusing accuracy, contingent upon improvements in technologies. \n\nSuch spacecrafts can be sent to achieve all required information about surface of planets and the state of interstellar space. After reaching the destination it could be transformed to a [Fresnel lens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fresnel_imager) to focus the signal and then send information back to Earth.\n\nThis question is important because it explores the feasibility of these advancements in spacecraft speed, especially if these advancements can enable speeds ≥ 0.22c by 2075." }, { "id": 21972, "title": "Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?", "short_title": "Non-Disney Board Member Elected April 2024?", "url_title": "Non-Disney Board Member Elected April 2024?", "slug": "non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-20T20:33:24.561446Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.375265Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-03T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-03T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21972, "title": "Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?", "created_at": "2024-03-20T20:33:24.561446Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-22T21:33:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-22T21:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-03T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-03T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-03T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-03T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-03T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Walt Disney Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Walt_Disney_Company) is facing a [proxy fight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_fight), as two investment firms are seeking board seats at the upcoming [April 3, 2024 shareholder meeting](https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/disney-date-2024-shareholder-meeting-rejects-board-nominees-1235894803/). [Trian Partners](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trian_Partners) has put forward two nominees for [board seats](https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/george-lucas-disney-iger-proxy-fight-board-1235945607/) and [Blackwells Capital](https://www.blackwellscap.com/) has put forward three, with each investment firm expressing dissatisfaction with Disney's performance and leadership.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that at least one non-Disney -nominated board member has been elected to Disney's board as a result of the April 3, 2024, shareholder vote.", "fine_print": "A non-Disney-nominated board member is one that was not one of the twelve board members nominated by Disney.", "post_id": 21972, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712149053.786236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712149053.786236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1537925719213671 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7439166678314957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9333198310231191, 1.3201492916737325, 0.2153378168622927, 1.1665477315029942, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4643883072377526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19725545985062867, 0.4160350980997906, 0.0, 0.0833857067693185, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9591481063586516, 0.30199423264781133, 0.3393435081288082, 0.0, 0.04255302797849524, 0.6416840602112744, 0.2780067488129698, 0.0, 0.1648228012086056, 0.0, 0.7628466000134717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06032709531608127, 0.6829217005582897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018996793087590582, 0.0, 0.029058259890870124, 0.04795610324820406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0376241220922931, 0.013841141009878904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06737143295391024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033136279379270196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009712334743922024, 0.001873194738889857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024261337011583416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005091871219889384 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 27.0789763840203, "coverage": 0.9997537727097021, "baseline_score": 41.263596129408874, "spot_peer_score": 35.62080431554262, "peer_archived_score": 27.0789763840203, "baseline_archived_score": 41.263596129408874, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.62080431554262 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712149053.820124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712149053.820124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9833810441858857, 0.01661895581411428 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 161, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Walt Disney Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Walt_Disney_Company) is facing a [proxy fight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_fight), as two investment firms are seeking board seats at the upcoming [April 3, 2024 shareholder meeting](https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/disney-date-2024-shareholder-meeting-rejects-board-nominees-1235894803/). [Trian Partners](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trian_Partners) has put forward two nominees for [board seats](https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/george-lucas-disney-iger-proxy-fight-board-1235945607/) and [Blackwells Capital](https://www.blackwellscap.com/) has put forward three, with each investment firm expressing dissatisfaction with Disney's performance and leadership." }, { "id": 21971, "title": "Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?", "short_title": "NY Seize Trump Properties", "url_title": "NY Seize Trump Properties", "slug": "ny-seize-trump-properties", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-20T19:30:24.267497Z", "published_at": "2024-04-02T13:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.470722Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-02T13:57:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-13T15:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-02T13:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21971, "title": "Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?", "created_at": "2024-03-20T19:30:24.267497Z", "open_time": "2024-04-02T13:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-05T13:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-05T13:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-13T15:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T15:33:36.124460Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following a [$464 million civil fraud judgment](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-fraud-trial/?id=103642561) against Donald Trump, the former President has [sought to appeal](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-appeals-355-million-ruling-144615752.html) the outcome of the trial. However, his pursuit of such an appeal first requires that he post a bond in the full amount of the judgement. Mr. Trump has reportedly [faced significant challenges](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-appeal-bond-fraud-net-worth-b2514521.html) in securing such a bond, allegedly facing rejection from \"about 30\" surety companies. \n\nRegarding the possibility that Trump will fail to post the bond or otherwise satisfy the judgement, New York Attorney General Letitia James [has said](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/19/1239524037/heres-what-happens-if-trump-cant-pay-his-454-million-bond) the following:\n>If he does not have funds to pay off the judgment, then we will seek judgment enforcement mechanisms in court, and we will ask the judge to seize his assets.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before November 5, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the State of New York has seized one or more of Donald Trump's real estate assets in order to satisfy the judgment in Trump's [New York civil fraud case](https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2024/attorney-general-james-wins-landmark-victory-case-against-donald-trump). \n\nIf no such actions have been reported by the specified date, the question will resolve negatively.", "fine_print": "- Reports indicating that the State of New York has merely begun or advanced the process of seizing Donald Trump's real estate holdings will not trigger a positive resolution of this question. For a positive resolution, such reports must indicate that a seizure has been completed, such that Mr. Trump no longer has legal ownership of, or control over, the asset(s). \n- In the event that at the time credible reports confirming a seizure, such actions by the State of New York are simultaneously the subject of legal dispute, this question still resolves positively upon reporting either event has already occurred, irrespective of whether they are subsequently annulled, reversed, etc.\n- In the case of ambiguous or conflicting reporting by or between credible sources, Metaculus admins may use their reasonable judgement to resolve the question.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, \"seize\" and \"seizure\" refer to the legal process of taking control of property by the State to satisfy a debt or judgment (including, but not limited to, through a court-approved Order to Seize).", "post_id": 21971, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730541020.400599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730541020.400599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.014808013734866078 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.852041353826241, 4.4464012511782816, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06273305504766838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.88244254333297, "peer_score": 7.895013471714693, "coverage": 0.9988200238432582, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9988200238432582, "spot_peer_score": 3.31010308793923, "baseline_archived_score": 91.88244254333297, "peer_archived_score": 7.895013471714693, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.31010308793923 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288643.617389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288643.617389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following a [$464 million civil fraud judgment](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-fraud-trial/?id=103642561) against Donald Trump, the former President has [sought to appeal](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-appeals-355-million-ruling-144615752.html) the outcome of the trial. However, his pursuit of such an appeal first requires that he post a bond in the full amount of the judgement. Mr. Trump has reportedly [faced significant challenges](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-appeal-bond-fraud-net-worth-b2514521.html) in securing such a bond, allegedly facing rejection from \"about 30\" surety companies. \n\nRegarding the possibility that Trump will fail to post the bond or otherwise satisfy the judgement, New York Attorney General Letitia James [has said](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/19/1239524037/heres-what-happens-if-trump-cant-pay-his-454-million-bond) the following:\n>If he does not have funds to pay off the judgment, then we will seek judgment enforcement mechanisms in court, and we will ask the judge to seize his assets." }, { "id": 21965, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?", "short_title": "Global Warming Pause 2015 - 2029", "url_title": "Global Warming Pause 2015 - 2029", "slug": "global-warming-pause-2015-2029", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-20T05:36:16.097853Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.528460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:21.069590Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": 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"2024-03-24T17:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate_1.html) and [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate.html) on June 9-10, 2014 at 3:1 odds favoring Caplan.**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes: \n\n>The Economist confirms that global warming has paused over the last 15 years:\n\n---\n\n>Between 1998 and 2013, the Earth’s surface temperature rose at a rate of\n0.04°C a decade, far slower than the 0.18°C increase in the 1990s.\nMeanwhile, emissions of carbon dioxide (which would be expected to push\ntemperatures up) rose uninterruptedly. This pause in warming has raised\ndoubts in the public mind about climate change.\n\n---\n\n>The rest of the piece discusses explanations for the pause:\n\n---\n\n>A convincing explanation of the pause therefore matters both to a proper\nunderstanding of the climate and to the credibility of climate\nscience–and papers published over the past few weeks do their best to\nprovide one. Indeed, they do almost too good a job. If all were correct,\nthe pause would now be explained twice over.\n\n---\n\n>I’m not qualified to evaluate any of this research. As a matter of general epistemic policy, though, I put very little stock in after-the-fact explanations. And that seems to be all the latest research is. \n\n[...]\n\n>To repeat, I’m not qualified to debate these experts. But their reaction seems fishy to me, and I am more than qualified to bet against the consensus on the basis of that perceived fishiness. Of course, since the experts are claiming knowledge, and I’m claiming ignorance, the odds should be in my favor. Last week on Twitter, I publicly offered to bet at 2:1 odds that the global warming pause will continue for another 15 years. \n\n >Indeed, he offers better terms than I requested: 3:1 odds, and I win if (according to according to ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series) the average global annual land + ocean temperature increase between 2014 and 2028 inclusive is less than or equal to +.05 C.\n\n>1. Since we already have some data from 2014, the bet should run from 2015 to 2029.\n\n>2. Yoram proposed Wheat and Chessboard stakes, but I prefer to simply bet my nominal $333.33 against his nominal $1000.\n\n> 3. If ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series stops publishing data during this period, we call the bet off. Alternately, Yoram can propose back-up data sources, and we only call the bet off if they all stop publishing data.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: the average (2015-2029) - average (2000-2014) <=0.05C. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per NOAA Global climate time series data (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21965, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763371637.751643, "end_time": 1765786852.412412, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763371637.751643, "end_time": 1765786852.412412, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.03140927747018874 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.27157482895527, 1.3322760054604335, 0.5154435195338387, 0.08861704666596604, 0.0, 0.9318073398651732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5628142846260307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008376459204076786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12485252982235584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.0, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05451133392988236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15207970849988256 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289291.569798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289291.569798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.996374789093572, 0.003625210906427934 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate_1.html) and [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate.html) on June 9-10, 2014 at 3:1 odds favoring Caplan.**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes: \n\n>The Economist confirms that global warming has paused over the last 15 years:\n\n---\n\n>Between 1998 and 2013, the Earth’s surface temperature rose at a rate of\n0.04°C a decade, far slower than the 0.18°C increase in the 1990s.\nMeanwhile, emissions of carbon dioxide (which would be expected to push\ntemperatures up) rose uninterruptedly. This pause in warming has raised\ndoubts in the public mind about climate change.\n\n---\n\n>The rest of the piece discusses explanations for the pause:\n\n---\n\n>A convincing explanation of the pause therefore matters both to a proper\nunderstanding of the climate and to the credibility of climate\nscience–and papers published over the past few weeks do their best to\nprovide one. Indeed, they do almost too good a job. If all were correct,\nthe pause would now be explained twice over.\n\n---\n\n>I’m not qualified to evaluate any of this research. As a matter of general epistemic policy, though, I put very little stock in after-the-fact explanations. And that seems to be all the latest research is. \n\n[...]\n\n>To repeat, I’m not qualified to debate these experts. But their reaction seems fishy to me, and I am more than qualified to bet against the consensus on the basis of that perceived fishiness. Of course, since the experts are claiming knowledge, and I’m claiming ignorance, the odds should be in my favor. Last week on Twitter, I publicly offered to bet at 2:1 odds that the global warming pause will continue for another 15 years. \n\n >Indeed, he offers better terms than I requested: 3:1 odds, and I win if (according to according to ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series) the average global annual land + ocean temperature increase between 2014 and 2028 inclusive is less than or equal to +.05 C.\n\n>1. Since we already have some data from 2014, the bet should run from 2015 to 2029.\n\n>2. Yoram proposed Wheat and Chessboard stakes, but I prefer to simply bet my nominal $333.33 against his nominal $1000.\n\n> 3. If ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series stops publishing data during this period, we call the bet off. Alternately, Yoram can propose back-up data sources, and we only call the bet off if they all stop publishing data." }, { "id": 21930, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?", "short_title": "No civil war in non-ex-communist Euro country", "url_title": "No civil war in non-ex-communist Euro country", "slug": "no-civil-war-in-non-ex-communist-euro-country", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:24:25.325315Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T20:06:06.213180Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:43.404605Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21930, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?", "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:24:25.325315Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2045-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/09/the_center_will.html) with an update [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/09/the_center_will_1.html).**\n\n**NOTE: This relevant wager was offered September 24, 2015 at 10:1 odds not favoring Caplan.**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Last weekend, I got into a Twitter argument with a fellow who claims that Europe’s immigration problem will “inevitably” lead to civil war:\n\n---\n\n> *@bryan_caplan As a human nature pessimist, I see ethno-cultural balkanization and civil war as inevitable on current trends.*\n\n>— *Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015*\n\n---\n\n>My reaction, as usual, was to propose a bet. And as usual, the person claiming “inevitability” refused to offer me favorable odds. Instead, he asked me to offer him favorable odds!\n\n---\n\n> *@bryan_caplan Civil war in multiple countries, within 30 years, tens of thousands killed. 10/1 would be nice.*\n\n>— *Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015*\n\n---\n\n>My bets are often of the form, “You’re confident, I’m ignorant, so give me favorable odds and I’ll bet you.” In this instance, however, I don’t plead ignorance. I am confident that civil war won’t happen in Western Europe for any reason whatsoever. So here’s the bet I’m offering:\n\n>You pay me $x today. If any European country that was not communist in 1988 has a civil war leading to 10,000 or more fatalities between today and December 31, 2045, I will immediately pay you $7x [later updated to 10x]. Germany counts, Turkey doesn’t. Any front page story in The New York Times, Washington Post, or Wall St. Journal stating that a literal civil war in one of the specified nations has led to 10,000 or more fatalities in that nation ends the bet in my opponents’ favor.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: no European country (that was not communist in 1988) will have a civil war leading to 10,000 or more fatalities by December 31, 2045. \n\nIf Caplan does not publicly announce the outcome of the bet, this question resolves per any story in The New York Times, Washington Post, or Wall Street Journal stating that a civil war in one of the specified nations has led to 10,000 or more fatalities in that nation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21930, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762632355.250293, "end_time": 1779779973.971496, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762632355.250293, "end_time": 1779779973.971496, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8466986971232419 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022015505594186534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4160350980997906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15032659043345778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17565463151819558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5375285561928892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7323154926132449, 0.0, 2.0408776084253883, 0.016279767023399463, 0.5230778203554852, 0.0, 0.6541259978097677, 1.306572917707424, 0.47160349429004367, 0.6828738030803971, 0.7033457699064573, 0.0, 0.30482871393249866, 1.1972554598506286, 0.0, 0.0833857067693185, 0.1884236342320478, 1.1947165238530442, 0.2780067488129698, 0.1648228012086056, 0.8705052744070133, 0.3522237551530505 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288830.10821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288830.10821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.14420693357574466, 0.8557930664242553 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/09/the_center_will.html) with an update [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/09/the_center_will_1.html).**\n\n**NOTE: This relevant wager was offered September 24, 2015 at 10:1 odds not favoring Caplan.**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Last weekend, I got into a Twitter argument with a fellow who claims that Europe’s immigration problem will “inevitably” lead to civil war:\n\n---\n\n> *@bryan_caplan As a human nature pessimist, I see ethno-cultural balkanization and civil war as inevitable on current trends.*\n\n>— *Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015*\n\n---\n\n>My reaction, as usual, was to propose a bet. And as usual, the person claiming “inevitability” refused to offer me favorable odds. Instead, he asked me to offer him favorable odds!\n\n---\n\n> *@bryan_caplan Civil war in multiple countries, within 30 years, tens of thousands killed. 10/1 would be nice.*\n\n>— *Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015*\n\n---\n\n>My bets are often of the form, “You’re confident, I’m ignorant, so give me favorable odds and I’ll bet you.” In this instance, however, I don’t plead ignorance. I am confident that civil war won’t happen in Western Europe for any reason whatsoever. So here’s the bet I’m offering:\n\n>You pay me $x today. If any European country that was not communist in 1988 has a civil war leading to 10,000 or more fatalities between today and December 31, 2045, I will immediately pay you $7x [later updated to 10x]. Germany counts, Turkey doesn’t. Any front page story in The New York Times, Washington Post, or Wall St. Journal stating that a literal civil war in one of the specified nations has led to 10,000 or more fatalities in that nation ends the bet in my opponents’ favor." }, { "id": 21928, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?", "short_title": "Bryan Caplan GMU Mistreatment", "url_title": "Bryan Caplan GMU Mistreatment", "slug": "bryan-caplan-gmu-mistreatment", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:07:01.072359Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T20:05:56.062777Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:48.499194Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-02T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21928, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:07:01.072359Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-02T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/persecution-bet/) and was made January 1, 2021.**\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>I’ve already seen George Mason University badly mistreat non-conformist professors. Should I expect the same to happen to me? I wouldn’t be surprised, but I’m not greatly worried either. I’m definitely not going to self-censor to protect myself. Yet quite a few people tell me that I’m in grave danger. One of them, Todd Proebsting, a C.S. professor at the University of Arizona, has offered to bet me.\n\n>To be clear, Todd wishes me well. He does not want me to suffer mistreatment; he merely predicts it. Here are the terms on which we have agreed.\n\n>I bet Todd Proebsting $50 at even odds that I will NOT be \"clearly mistreated\" by George Mason University before January 1, 2031.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University before January 1, 2031.**\n\n---\n\nThis question resolves per public statements by Caplan.\n\nCaplan writes: \n>If there is a dispute, [economic historian] Phil Magness will have final authority to determine the winner of the bet.\n\n>Examples of “clear mistreatment” include but are not limited to:\n\n>1. Any public announcement by an agent of my university’s administration that my speech or writings are under investigation, or a subject of further inquiry.\n\n>2. Any GMU investigation or inquiry into my speech or writing. This could be done by administrators or an ad hoc committee or HR or whatever.\n\n>3. Any official disciplinary action due to my speech or writing, even if limited to a mere “warning”.\n\n>4. Cancellation of a public talk by me at GMU.\n\n>5. Any negative financial consequences explicitly justified by my speech or writings.\n\n>6. “Clear mistreatment” does NOT include any employee of GMU expressing disapproval of the content of my speech or writings, but DOES include any official personal or professional condemnation. So: Todd doesn’t win for “GMU strongly disagrees with what Prof. Caplan said about pickpockets,” but Todd does win for “GMU strongly condemns Prof. Caplan for saying that about pickpockets.”\n\nThe wager ends on January 1, 2031.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21928, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762747745.948906, "end_time": 1776255452.304319, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762747745.948906, "end_time": 1776255452.304319, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.8120915625190859 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.16643491542409378, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 1.832739712771728, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.7845533632614763, 0.5288293908805634, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36984136775045595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289208.315801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289208.315801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3318875576916537, 0.6681124423083463 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/persecution-bet/) and was made January 1, 2021.**\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>I’ve already seen George Mason University badly mistreat non-conformist professors. Should I expect the same to happen to me? I wouldn’t be surprised, but I’m not greatly worried either. I’m definitely not going to self-censor to protect myself. Yet quite a few people tell me that I’m in grave danger. One of them, Todd Proebsting, a C.S. professor at the University of Arizona, has offered to bet me.\n\n>To be clear, Todd wishes me well. He does not want me to suffer mistreatment; he merely predicts it. Here are the terms on which we have agreed.\n\n>I bet Todd Proebsting $50 at even odds that I will NOT be \"clearly mistreated\" by George Mason University before January 1, 2031." }, { "id": 21927, "title": "Will Aidan Caplan win his bet that the Supreme Court will not be packed as of July 4, 2028?", "short_title": "Supreme Court Not Packed", "url_title": "Supreme Court Not Packed", "slug": "supreme-court-not-packed", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:02:19.114031Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T20:05:48.135706Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:56.835893Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-07-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-05T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21927, "title": "Will Aidan Caplan win his bet that the Supreme Court will not be packed as of July 4, 2028?", "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:02:19.114031Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-05T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-07-04T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-07-04T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/court-packing-bet/) and was made on July 10, 2018 with 7-1 odds favoring Ilya Somin.**\n\nBryan Caplan writes:\n\n>Court-packing is back. Or is it? Perhaps cheap talk is merely taking on yet another guise. After an engaging argument on this topic, law professor Ilya Somin has hammered out the following bet with my son, Aidan Caplan. While most observers would take a Somin’s side on credentials alone, bear in mind that Aidan has earned 5’s on both the U.S. History and U.S. Government Advanced Placement tests. Though he just finished 9th-grade, the contest is not as unequal as it seems.\n\n>In any case, here are the terms of the bet – written by Ilya, and accepted by Aidan:\n\n---\n\n>To win, I bet, at 7-1 odds favoring me, that the Court will be packed within 10 years. I put up $10 against his $70. I win if by July 4, 2028, the Supreme Court is legally authorized to have 10 or more justices. Otherwise Aidan wins. I agree he wins if it has gone up from 9 to 10 or more between now and 2028, but it has been cut back to 9 by 2028.\n\n---\n\n>Somin adds: “And I actually hope there will NOT be any court-packing in the next 10 years.”", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager (or in this one case Aidan Caplan's) where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Bryan Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: the US Supreme Court was not \"packed\" (had more than nine justices) as of July 4th, 2028.\n\nIf Bryan Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per reputable sources reporting on the resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21927, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762632337.350945, "end_time": 1763395828.705516, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762632337.350945, "end_time": 1763395828.705516, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9276311712455353 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 1.0426450379195211, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 0.2164335258165257, 0.05261861201859691, 1.6662304393753555, 0.47078787023876, 1.2569435305951722, 0.9381118225367869, 0.11969230358260687 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288658.299803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288658.299803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07736152130414131, 0.9226384786958587 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/court-packing-bet/) and was made on July 10, 2018 with 7-1 odds favoring Ilya Somin.**\n\nBryan Caplan writes:\n\n>Court-packing is back. Or is it? Perhaps cheap talk is merely taking on yet another guise. After an engaging argument on this topic, law professor Ilya Somin has hammered out the following bet with my son, Aidan Caplan. While most observers would take a Somin’s side on credentials alone, bear in mind that Aidan has earned 5’s on both the U.S. History and U.S. Government Advanced Placement tests. Though he just finished 9th-grade, the contest is not as unequal as it seems.\n\n>In any case, here are the terms of the bet – written by Ilya, and accepted by Aidan:\n\n---\n\n>To win, I bet, at 7-1 odds favoring me, that the Court will be packed within 10 years. I put up $10 against his $70. I win if by July 4, 2028, the Supreme Court is legally authorized to have 10 or more justices. Otherwise Aidan wins. I agree he wins if it has gone up from 9 to 10 or more between now and 2028, but it has been cut back to 9 by 2028.\n\n---\n\n>Somin adds: “And I actually hope there will NOT be any court-packing in the next 10 years.”" }, { "id": 21922, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the college enrollment rate will be greater than 26.6% in 2025?", "short_title": "College Enrollment Rate For 2025", "url_title": "College Enrollment Rate For 2025", "slug": "college-enrollment-rate-for-2025", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-15T23:03:17.211678Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T20:50:14.125743Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:05.790699Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21922, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the college enrollment rate will be greater than 26.6% in 2025?", "created_at": "2024-03-15T23:03:17.211678Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/) and was made September 12th, 2018 at even odds. This wager was an update on a [previous post](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2011/10/stably_wasteful.html).**\n\nCaplan writes:\n>Samuel Knoche, a student at Fordham University, has taken me up on an old bet:\n\n---\n\n>I bet at even odds that 10 years from now, the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges will be no more than 10% (not 10 percentage-points!) lower than it is today.\n\n---\n\nHowever, we’ve slightly modified the earlier terms.\n> Since the most recent data is for 2015, we are betting that when the 2025 data comes out, Samuel [Knoche] wins if the fraction of 18-to-24-years-olds enrolled in four-year colleges has fallen more than 10%. I win if it’s fallen less. Since the current rate is 29.9%, he wins if the rate is 26.6% or less. If the data series is discontinued, we call off the bet and I refund his money with 3% annual interest.\n\n---\n\nNOTE: This question is a resolution-reversed version of a previously opened Metaculus question: [Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/)", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: the enrollment rate of 18- to 24-year-olds in a 4-year college or university in the [NCES 2025 data](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d23/tables/dt23_302.60.asp) is greater than 26.6%. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per [NCES data](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp). 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This wager was an update on a [previous post](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2011/10/stably_wasteful.html).**\n\nCaplan writes:\n>Samuel Knoche, a student at Fordham University, has taken me up on an old bet:\n\n---\n\n>I bet at even odds that 10 years from now, the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges will be no more than 10% (not 10 percentage-points!) lower than it is today.\n\n---\n\nHowever, we’ve slightly modified the earlier terms.\n> Since the most recent data is for 2015, we are betting that when the 2025 data comes out, Samuel [Knoche] wins if the fraction of 18-to-24-years-olds enrolled in four-year colleges has fallen more than 10%. I win if it’s fallen less. Since the current rate is 29.9%, he wins if the rate is 26.6% or less. If the data series is discontinued, we call off the bet and I refund his money with 3% annual interest.\n\n---\n\nNOTE: This question is a resolution-reversed version of a previously opened Metaculus question: [Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/)" }, { "id": 21918, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that India's average fertility rate for 2032 & 2033 will be < 2.0?", "short_title": "2032-2033 India fertility rate", "url_title": "2032-2033 India fertility rate", "slug": "2032-2033-india-fertility-rate", "author_id": 164919, "author_username": "srid", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-15T22:15:26.656546Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T20:05:30.426104Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:11.211767Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-01-01T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-01-02T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21918, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that India's average fertility rate for 2032 & 2033 will be < 2.0?", "created_at": "2024-03-15T22:15:26.656546Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-01-02T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-01-01T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2012/08/indian_fertilit.html) and was made August 30, 2012 with economist John Nye, with odds of 2:1 favoring Caplan.**\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>I think that bad economic policy, not “overpopulation,” is India’s main economic problem. But whatever you think about the social effects of population growth, it’s clear that Indian fertility is sharply declining. I expect this rapid decline to continue, but my colleague John Nye isn’t convinced. As a result, we’ve agreed to the following bet:\n\n>If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2<2.0,\n\n>John owes me $200.\n\n>If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2 ≥2.0,\n\n>I owe John $100.\n\n>We’ve agreed to use the average of the World Bank and United Nations estimates of TFR.\n\n>Hopefully I’ll lose!", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: India's (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2<2.0. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per the average of World Bank and United Nations estimates of TFR.\n\n[World Bank data is here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IN). \n\n[UN data is here](https://pdp.unfpa.org/?_ga=2.189084207.545536236.1712342354-2014740225.1712342354&country=356&data_id=dataSource_8-6%3A106%2CdataSource_8-1%3A2%2B10%2B11&page=Explore-Indicators).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762632320.167215, "end_time": 1769828260.18527, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.973 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762632320.167215, "end_time": 1769828260.18527, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.973 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.027000000000000024, 0.973 ], "means": [ 0.9457029296432052 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02742518458263356, 0.06718452183420129, 0.31210550135292425, 0.18783103933790987, 0.0, 1.6019158298467882, 0.28211668489493613, 0.0, 0.1148171974242466, 0.7800991750591255, 1.3010636256736716, 0.0, 1.1051143542913466, 3.441374352252091, 1.4265835679804209 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287151.230823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287151.230823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.08037659905601102, 0.919623400943989 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2012/08/indian_fertilit.html) and was made August 30, 2012 with economist John Nye, with odds of 2:1 favoring Caplan.**\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>I think that bad economic policy, not “overpopulation,” is India’s main economic problem. But whatever you think about the social effects of population growth, it’s clear that Indian fertility is sharply declining. I expect this rapid decline to continue, but my colleague John Nye isn’t convinced. As a result, we’ve agreed to the following bet:\n\n>If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2<2.0,\n\n>John owes me $200.\n\n>If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2 ≥2.0,\n\n>I owe John $100.\n\n>We’ve agreed to use the average of the World Bank and United Nations estimates of TFR.\n\n>Hopefully I’ll lose!" }, { "id": 21915, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?", "short_title": "Russia Invading NATO member by 2040", "url_title": "Russia Invading NATO member by 2040", "slug": "russia-invading-nato-member-by-2040", "author_id": 164919, "author_username": "srid", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-15T21:26:43.083837Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T20:05:23.406510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:16.386576Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-06-09T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-06-10T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21915, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?", "created_at": "2024-03-15T21:26:43.083837Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-06-10T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-06-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-06-09T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original offer to wager appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nato_bethtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) on June 10, 2015 at even odds.**\n\n---\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Tyler heavily insinuates that Russia will invade a NATO member in the foreseeable future:\n\n>“At least half of Germans, French and Italians say their country should not\nuse military force to defend a NATO ally if attacked by Russia,” the\nPew Research Center said it found in its survey, which is based on\ninterviews in 10 nations.\n\n>There is more here, and so every great moderation must come to an end…\n\n>This is also of note:\n\n>According to the study, residents of most NATO countries still believe that the United States would come to their defense.\n\n>Meanwhile:\n\n>Eighty-eight percent of Russians said they had confidence in Mr. Putin to do the right thing on international affairs…\n\n>Solve for the equilibrium, as they like to say. It is much easier to\nstabilize a conservative power (e.g., the USSR) than a revisionist\npower (Putin’s Russia).\n\n>In contrast, I think (a) a Russian attack on a NATO member is highly unlikely, and (b) would provoke a massive military response by NATO. Even a low-level, unofficial war in Ukraine has cost Russia dearly, and it looks to me like it will slowly become another “frozen conflict” in the Russian sphere of influence. Attacking a NATO member would not be suicide for Putin, but still much too risky for his taste.\n\n>[...] I give even odds that Russia attacks zero NATO members for the next 25 years. [...] I’m inclined to say that if the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, and Washington Post all have front-page stories saying that 1000 or more Russian troops have entered a specific NATO member, I lose.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: Russia does NOT attack a NATO member before June 10, 2040. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post all featuring front-page stories indicating that 1000 or more Russian troops entered a specific NATO member.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21915, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763268497.264487, "end_time": 1763390870.356131, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763268497.264487, "end_time": 1763390870.356131, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7077355800883157 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7197018749430008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03282480256284937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23476588978119836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0090546722950062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18967896317068483, 0.0, 0.7819583078352288, 1.5341179032257912, 0.0, 0.06198292201444626, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9427636684747075, 0.08181124203511007, 0.10592775239849204, 0.0, 0.07140076303461346, 0.7827061049060935, 0.0, 1.6106164389413062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.850240976340088, 0.508020419894716, 0.0, 0.45056986043756053, 0.21127762784985343, 0.0, 0.018152807974501476, 0.0, 0.038968642356904164, 0.14714901221872378, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.1698461853777333 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289827.551422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289827.551422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19688221864865363, 0.8031177813513464 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original offer to wager appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nato_bethtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) on June 10, 2015 at even odds.**\n\n---\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Tyler heavily insinuates that Russia will invade a NATO member in the foreseeable future:\n\n>“At least half of Germans, French and Italians say their country should not\nuse military force to defend a NATO ally if attacked by Russia,” the\nPew Research Center said it found in its survey, which is based on\ninterviews in 10 nations.\n\n>There is more here, and so every great moderation must come to an end…\n\n>This is also of note:\n\n>According to the study, residents of most NATO countries still believe that the United States would come to their defense.\n\n>Meanwhile:\n\n>Eighty-eight percent of Russians said they had confidence in Mr. Putin to do the right thing on international affairs…\n\n>Solve for the equilibrium, as they like to say. It is much easier to\nstabilize a conservative power (e.g., the USSR) than a revisionist\npower (Putin’s Russia).\n\n>In contrast, I think (a) a Russian attack on a NATO member is highly unlikely, and (b) would provoke a massive military response by NATO. Even a low-level, unofficial war in Ukraine has cost Russia dearly, and it looks to me like it will slowly become another “frozen conflict” in the Russian sphere of influence. Attacking a NATO member would not be suicide for Putin, but still much too risky for his taste.\n\n>[...] I give even odds that Russia attacks zero NATO members for the next 25 years. [...] I’m inclined to say that if the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, and Washington Post all have front-page stories saying that 1000 or more Russian troops have entered a specific NATO member, I lose." }, { "id": 21914, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?", "short_title": "No Explosive Growth by 2043", "url_title": "No Explosive Growth by 2043", "slug": "no-explosive-growth-by-2043", "author_id": 164919, "author_username": "srid", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-15T21:05:32.597000Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T21:44:51.176514Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:21.137283Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2043-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21914, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?", "created_at": "2024-03-15T21:05:32.597000Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2043-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2042-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/explosive-growth-bet) on July 27, 2023 at 4:1 odds favoring (Metaculus forecaster) [Matthew Barnett](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/).**\n\n---\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Matthew Barnett seems likely to beat me on our current AI bet. Even so, I’m ready to do another bet against him on the same theme. Barnett is so optimistic about AI that he’s predicting a massive increase in Gross World Product. \n\nMatthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043. [Source](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fsaogRokXxby6LFd7/a-compute-based-framework-for-thinking-about-the-future-of).\n\n>Our terms:\n\n>If:\n\n>By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year\n\n>Then:\n\n>Bryan pays Matthew the current market value of $2,000 worth of the S&P 500 purchased at the closing price on July 27, 2023.\n\n>Else:\n\n>Matthew pays Bryan the current market value of $500 worth of the S&P 500 purchased at the closing price on July 27, 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: real gross world product did NOT exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any year by January 1, 2043. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves [per IMF data](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21914, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762379080.707369, "end_time": 1770310599.568789, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762379080.707369, "end_time": 1770310599.568789, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7944751825002074 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6220865835985105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7922460993238396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005838829315397701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04535037156571558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19043220276906433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01644146499808245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40633218071331956, 0.5726740774817343, 0.0, 0.27067843647961237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4836050927143443, 0.3395232167316722, 1.0352178742987908, 0.0876562031162544, 0.8570026340065788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09878615287055517, 0.6508459709547829, 0.6830356376287222, 0.5104781322799199, 0.0, 1.052527960101168, 0.0, 0.15458320800495146, 1.13684469541787, 0.11096509564589224, 0.27778338151289583, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.22206439725083785 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287865.508113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287865.508113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17518190157878566, 0.8248180984212143 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/explosive-growth-bet) on July 27, 2023 at 4:1 odds favoring (Metaculus forecaster) [Matthew Barnett](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/).**\n\n---\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Matthew Barnett seems likely to beat me on our current AI bet. Even so, I’m ready to do another bet against him on the same theme. Barnett is so optimistic about AI that he’s predicting a massive increase in Gross World Product. \n\nMatthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043. [Source](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fsaogRokXxby6LFd7/a-compute-based-framework-for-thinking-about-the-future-of).\n\n>Our terms:\n\n>If:\n\n>By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year\n\n>Then:\n\n>Bryan pays Matthew the current market value of $2,000 worth of the S&P 500 purchased at the closing price on July 27, 2023.\n\n>Else:\n\n>Matthew pays Bryan the current market value of $500 worth of the S&P 500 purchased at the closing price on July 27, 2023." }, { "id": 21879, "title": "Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?", "short_title": "U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?", "url_title": "U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?", "slug": "us-nukes-to-japan-or-philippines-by-2035", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-14T02:06:24.897481Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T15:35:21.926023Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21879, "title": "Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?", "created_at": "2024-03-14T02:06:24.897481Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> The U.S. military plans to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific in 2024, a U.S. official told Nikkei, establishing its first arsenal in the region since the end of the Cold War to enhance deterrence against China.<br />\n> …\n> \n> Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the U.S. Army will send the intermediate-range missile units primarily to the U.S. territory of Guam, looking for more forward deployment to Asian allies in a contingency.\n> \n> \"These will be permanently deployed to U.S. territories in the region, primarily Guam,\" Panda said. \"Allies may be open to rotational deployments in crises, but this is very much dependent on future political dynamics.\"\n> \n> Responding to a crisis in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea will require missiles that can reach targets in those critical waterways or the mainland of China. This means an extended deployment near the so-called first island chain, which stretches from Japan's Okinawa islands to Taiwan and the Philippines.<br />\n> —[Nakamura & Moriyasu, 2023](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/U.S.-to-deploy-new-ground-based-missiles-to-Indo-Pacific-in-2024)<br /><br />\n\n> The United States of America (USA) is all set to mount a “missile wall” in the Pacific Ocean, based largely out of Islands in Japan, Taiwan and Philippines in 2024 to counteract an ever-aggressive China.\n> \n> According to a report in Asia Times, General Charles Flynn, Commander of US Army Forces Pacific, said the US would deploy new intermediate-range missiles including Tomahawks and SM-6s to the Pacific region in 2024.<br />\n> …\n> \n> The US move has been enabled by the fact that it withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 in reaction to Russia’s intransigent non-compliance to the pact.<br />\n> —[FP Staff, 2023](https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-to-deploy-missile-wall-in-pacific-to-checkmate-china-in-2024-japan-most-likely-host-13418652.html)<br /><br />\n\n> A 1960 accord with Japan permits the United States to move weapons of mass destruction through Japanese territory and allows American warships and submarines to carry nuclear weapons into Japan's ports and American aircraft to bring them in during landings. The agreement allows the United States to deploy or store nuclear arms in Japan without requiring the express permission of the Japanese Government. The discussion took place during negotiations in 1959, and the agreement was made in 1960 by Aiichiro Fujiyama, then Japan's Foreign Minister.<br />\n> —[Wikipedia, n.d.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_nuclear_weapons_in_Japan)<br /><br />\n\n> The United States and the Philippines on Friday signed a landmark deal that would allow Washington to export nuclear technology and material to Manila, which is exploring the use of nuclear power to decarbonise and boost energy independence.\n> \n> \"The United States will be able to share equipment and material with the Philippines as they work to develop small modular reactors and other civilian nuclear energy infrastructure,\" U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a signing ceremony on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in San Francisco.<br />\n> —[Reuters, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-philippines-ink-landmark-deal-nuclear-cooperation-2023-11-17/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, the U.S. deploys land-based nuclear missiles to either Japan or the Philippines (or both), according to credible reports. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "Credible reports indicating that the U.S. has deployed such nuclear missiles covertly count for Yes resolution. For example, reporting that says \"anonymous US officials say. . .\" or \"China has accused the US of. . .\" count for Yes resolution.\n\nJapan and the Philippines [are both major non-NATO allies](https://samm.dsca.mil/glossary/major-non-nato-allies#:~:text=Currently%2018%20countries%20are%20designated,Korea%2C%20Thailand%2C%20and%20Tunisia.). It seems _possible_ that nuclear missiles could be deployed in either of these countries as part of NATO’s [nuclear sharing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing) program. If this does happen, and it’s not clear from which NATO nation the missiles deployed in Japan or the Philippines originated (i.e., it’s not known that the originating country was not the U.S.), then for the purposes of this question this situation counts for Yes resolution.", "post_id": 21879, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762788911.100617, "end_time": 1777011179.331527, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762788911.100617, "end_time": 1777011179.331527, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2567990823442283 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2743287127404717, 0.37870181123419233, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.04213280279121279, 0.5959280902352813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.26243788290678444, 0.0, 0.6525656508175627, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5405144259613794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9019935026160223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287419.006625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287419.006625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9888984333100961, 0.011101566689903957 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> The U.S. military plans to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific in 2024, a U.S. official told Nikkei, establishing its first arsenal in the region since the end of the Cold War to enhance deterrence against China.<br />\n> …\n> \n> Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the U.S. Army will send the intermediate-range missile units primarily to the U.S. territory of Guam, looking for more forward deployment to Asian allies in a contingency.\n> \n> \"These will be permanently deployed to U.S. territories in the region, primarily Guam,\" Panda said. \"Allies may be open to rotational deployments in crises, but this is very much dependent on future political dynamics.\"\n> \n> Responding to a crisis in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea will require missiles that can reach targets in those critical waterways or the mainland of China. This means an extended deployment near the so-called first island chain, which stretches from Japan's Okinawa islands to Taiwan and the Philippines.<br />\n> —[Nakamura & Moriyasu, 2023](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/U.S.-to-deploy-new-ground-based-missiles-to-Indo-Pacific-in-2024)<br /><br />\n\n> The United States of America (USA) is all set to mount a “missile wall” in the Pacific Ocean, based largely out of Islands in Japan, Taiwan and Philippines in 2024 to counteract an ever-aggressive China.\n> \n> According to a report in Asia Times, General Charles Flynn, Commander of US Army Forces Pacific, said the US would deploy new intermediate-range missiles including Tomahawks and SM-6s to the Pacific region in 2024.<br />\n> …\n> \n> The US move has been enabled by the fact that it withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 in reaction to Russia’s intransigent non-compliance to the pact.<br />\n> —[FP Staff, 2023](https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-to-deploy-missile-wall-in-pacific-to-checkmate-china-in-2024-japan-most-likely-host-13418652.html)<br /><br />\n\n> A 1960 accord with Japan permits the United States to move weapons of mass destruction through Japanese territory and allows American warships and submarines to carry nuclear weapons into Japan's ports and American aircraft to bring them in during landings. The agreement allows the United States to deploy or store nuclear arms in Japan without requiring the express permission of the Japanese Government. The discussion took place during negotiations in 1959, and the agreement was made in 1960 by Aiichiro Fujiyama, then Japan's Foreign Minister.<br />\n> —[Wikipedia, n.d.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_nuclear_weapons_in_Japan)<br /><br />\n\n> The United States and the Philippines on Friday signed a landmark deal that would allow Washington to export nuclear technology and material to Manila, which is exploring the use of nuclear power to decarbonise and boost energy independence.\n> \n> \"The United States will be able to share equipment and material with the Philippines as they work to develop small modular reactors and other civilian nuclear energy infrastructure,\" U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a signing ceremony on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in San Francisco.<br />\n> —[Reuters, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-philippines-ink-landmark-deal-nuclear-cooperation-2023-11-17/)" }, { "id": 21875, "title": "If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?", "short_title": "U.S. Nuclear First Use After China Drops NFU", "url_title": "U.S. Nuclear First Use After China Drops NFU", "slug": "us-nuclear-first-use-after-china-drops-nfu", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-14T01:19:24.143078Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T15:35:22.670737Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": 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"peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21875, "title": "If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?", "created_at": "2024-03-14T01:19:24.143078Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For decades, China has maintained a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy, which is a commitment by Chinese leadership to not use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances (e.g., [Zhao, 2023](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/06/united-states-china-nuclear-meeting-no-first-use-arms-control/)) (In other words, China commits to only using nuclear weapons in retaliation to an adversary launching a nuclear attack on China first.)\n\nThere is debate amongst D.C. nuclear analysts as to whether China will abide by its no first use policy if and when push comes to shove. China’s nuclear arsenal has undergone an unprecedented expansion in recent years ([Kristensen & Korda, 2024](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-01/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2024/)) which leads some to further question China’s nuclear intentions.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21778/china-nuclear-no-first-use/)\n- [If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21874/china-nuclear-first-use-after-renouncing-nfu/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use after China officially renounces their “no first use” policy. This question will be **Annulled** if the U.S. does not use a nuclear weapon first before 2035, and will resolve as **No** if the U.S. uses a nuclear weapon first but China has not first renounced its no first use policy.", "fine_print": "The renouncement has to be current policy at the time of a first use by either side. In other words, if China officially renounces no first use but later reinstates it and then there's a first use, Yes resolution is not triggered.\n\nFor Yes resolution, it does not matter how long after China officially renounces their no first use policy the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon as a first use, as long as these both happen before 2035.\n\nA U.S. detonation counts as a first use if China has not first detonated a nuclear weapon against the U.S. or Taiwan. If China has detonated a nuclear weapon against another of its adversaries—India, for example—then this does not affect whether a U.S. detonation on China counts as a first use.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an inadvertent (counter)attack does not count as an offensive first use. Note the following definition: “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” ([Barrett et al., 2013](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)) If China launches a nuclear weapon against an adversary and sources disagree on whether this was a deliberate or inadvertent attack, a panel of at least three experts will decide resolution via majority vote.\n\nAdditionally, for the purposes of this question, a “warning shot” (e.g., one in international waters) counts for Yes resolution. For Yes resolution via this path, the warning shot does have to reasonably be a warning shot rather than a test detonation, and it does need to involve a nuclear payload (as opposed to being a training exercise with missiles that can be armed with nuclear warheads but which are armed with conventional explosives in the exercise).", "post_id": 21875, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762788912.353534, "end_time": 1777011469.479436, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762788912.353534, "end_time": 1777011469.479436, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7014993614435766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5023065402709106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059071811155131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8084600709554961, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8657736781661247 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287952.319841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287952.319841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.375029739497424, 0.624970260502576 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For decades, China has maintained a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy, which is a commitment by Chinese leadership to not use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances (e.g., [Zhao, 2023](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/06/united-states-china-nuclear-meeting-no-first-use-arms-control/)) (In other words, China commits to only using nuclear weapons in retaliation to an adversary launching a nuclear attack on China first.)\n\nThere is debate amongst D.C. nuclear analysts as to whether China will abide by its no first use policy if and when push comes to shove. China’s nuclear arsenal has undergone an unprecedented expansion in recent years ([Kristensen & Korda, 2024](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-01/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2024/)) which leads some to further question China’s nuclear intentions.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21778/china-nuclear-no-first-use/)\n- [If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21874/china-nuclear-first-use-after-renouncing-nfu/)" }, { "id": 21874, "title": "If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?", "short_title": "China Nuclear First Use After Renouncing NFU", "url_title": "China Nuclear First Use After Renouncing NFU", "slug": 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use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?", "created_at": "2024-03-14T01:09:20.439178Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For decades, China has maintained a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy, which is a commitment by Chinese leadership to not use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances (e.g., [Zhao, 2023](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/06/united-states-china-nuclear-meeting-no-first-use-arms-control/)) (In other words, China commits to only using nuclear weapons in retaliation to an adversary launching a nuclear attack on China first.)\n\nThere is debate amongst D.C. nuclear analysts as to whether China will abide by its no first use policy if and when push comes to shove. China’s nuclear arsenal has undergone an unprecedented expansion in recent years ([Kristensen & Korda, 2024](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-01/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2024/)) which leads some to further question China’s nuclear intentions.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21778/china-nuclear-no-first-use/)\n- [If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21875/us-nuclear-first-use-after-china-drops-nfu/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use after having officially renounced their “no first use” policy. This question will be **Annulled** if China does not use a nuclear weapon first before 2035, and will resolve as **No** if China uses a nuclear weapon first but has not first renounced no first use.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, an inadvertent (counter)attack does not count as an offensive first use. Note the following definition: “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” ([Barrett et al., 2013](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)) If China launches a nuclear weapon against an adversary and sources disagree on whether this was a deliberate or inadvertent attack, a panel of at least three experts will decide resolution via majority vote.\n\nAdditionally, for the purposes of this question, a “warning shot” (e.g., one in international waters) counts for Yes resolution. For Yes resolution via this path, the warning shot does have to reasonably be a warning shot rather than a test detonation, and it does need to involve a nuclear payload (as opposed to being a training exercise with missiles that can be armed with nuclear warheads but which are armed with conventional explosives in the exercise).", "post_id": 21874, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762788912.799969, "end_time": 1777638312.075533, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762788912.799969, "end_time": 1777638312.075533, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.5357559023708026 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5830692761263615, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09299089084024291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6903027093826349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.20427029069544175, 0.9627206969810127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7655507776438295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290135.569469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290135.569469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5725068896016008, 0.42749311039839927 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For decades, China has maintained a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy, which is a commitment by Chinese leadership to not use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances (e.g., [Zhao, 2023](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/06/united-states-china-nuclear-meeting-no-first-use-arms-control/)) (In other words, China commits to only using nuclear weapons in retaliation to an adversary launching a nuclear attack on China first.)\n\nThere is debate amongst D.C. nuclear analysts as to whether China will abide by its no first use policy if and when push comes to shove. China’s nuclear arsenal has undergone an unprecedented expansion in recent years ([Kristensen & Korda, 2024](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-01/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2024/)) which leads some to further question China’s nuclear intentions.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21778/china-nuclear-no-first-use/)\n- [If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21875/us-nuclear-first-use-after-china-drops-nfu/)" }, { "id": 21871, "title": "Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?", "short_title": "China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?", "url_title": "China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?", "slug": "china-disavows-force-in-taiwan-reunification", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-14T00:16:15.333663Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T15:35:23.465387Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21871, "title": "Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?", "created_at": "2024-03-14T00:16:15.333663Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, officially claims to be the [sole legitimate government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Strait_relations) of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. Currently, the [Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) (aka Taiwan) controls the islands. The two states remain in a state of tension following the [Chinese Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War). Though there has not been active conflict since 1979, the two parties have not agreed to an armistice or peace treaty.\n\nIn May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said: “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, China makes an official statement saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The statement must make clear that China does not intend to use force at any point in the future. In other words, a statement saying “we will not use force at this time” does not count for Yes resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an “official statement” is one made by any member of the [Chinese Communist Party’s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Communist_Party) standing committee, including the General Secretary, any leadership member of the [Standing Committee of the National People's Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standing_Committee_of_the_National_People%27s_Congress) (i.e., the Chairman, the Secretary-General, or a Vice-Chairperson), any member of the [State Council’s executive meeting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Council_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China#:~:text=%5Bedit%5D-,Executive%20Meeting,-%5Bedit%5D), or any [military general](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_generals_of_China).", "post_id": 21871, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762788913.248758, "end_time": 1765737190.75, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762788913.248758, "end_time": 1765737190.75, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.07143345064044207 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.409599824287444, 0.9108120263298067, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289511.367111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289511.367111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, officially claims to be the [sole legitimate government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Strait_relations) of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. Currently, the [Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) (aka Taiwan) controls the islands. The two states remain in a state of tension following the [Chinese Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War). Though there has not been active conflict since 1979, the two parties have not agreed to an armistice or peace treaty.\n\nIn May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said: “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.”" }, { "id": 21870, "title": "Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?", "short_title": "China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?", "url_title": "China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?", "slug": "china-nuclear-threat-for-taiwan-interference", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-14T00:04:42.437553Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T15:35:24.311194Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21870, "title": "Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?", "created_at": "2024-03-14T00:04:42.437553Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China has maintained a nuclear “no first use” policy—i.e., a policy “not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances” and “not to threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states”—since its first nuclear test detonation in 1964 (see, e.g., [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#:~:text=Nuclear%20use%20policy,21%5D%3A%E2%80%8A21)).\n\nIt appears that China has only made one nuclear threat in its history, around two decades ago: “In 2005, Chinese major general Zhu Chenghu said that China might retaliate with nuclear weapons if the United States attacked Chinese forces in a conflict over Taiwan” ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_blackmail#:~:text=In%202005%2C%20Chinese%20major%20general%20Zhu%20Chenghu%20said%20that%20China%20might%20retaliate%20with%20nuclear%20weapons%20if%20the%20United%20States%20attacked%20Chinese%20forces%20in%20a%20conflict%20over%20Taiwan.%5B17%5D)).\n\n---\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21869/us-nuclear-defense-taiwan/)\n- [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n- [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n- [If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11127/china-to-retaliate-if-us-intervenes-in-taiwan/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, between question launch and January 1, 2030, China makes an official statement threatening nuclear use if another nation gets its military involved in the China-Taiwan situation. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "Resolution will be determined by a panel of three or more Metaculus admins. The following are some guidelines they will follow for resolution.\n\n-An “official statement” is one made by any member of the [Chinese Communist Party’s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Communist_Party) standing committee, including the General Secretary, any leadership member of the [Standing Committee of the National People's Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standing_Committee_of_the_National_People%27s_Congress) (i.e., the Chairman, the Secretary-General, or a Vice-Chairperson), any member of the [State Council’s executive meeting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Council_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China#:~:text=%5Bedit%5D-,Executive%20Meeting,-%5Bedit%5D), or any [military general](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_generals_of_China). Responses to questions (from reporters, say) made by any of the aforementioned people count as an official statement.\n\n-Explicit threats like “if the U.S. defends Taiwan militarily, will we use nuclear weapons if necessary” count for Yes resolution. Vaguer threats like “all options are on the table” also count for Yes resolution.", "post_id": 21870, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762788913.73987, "end_time": 1764203813.418932, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762788913.73987, "end_time": 1764203813.418932, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.3021988123163645 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.03573243764150962, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.4903378730451244, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.7067030032641626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18662187751615167, 0.9134389029481002, 0.6257872328778666, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 1.1674311454608766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5286325467338089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.024384432274902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0157085394504055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6110245847907283 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289354.123796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289354.123796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9368792816130418, 0.06312071838695815 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China has maintained a nuclear “no first use” policy—i.e., a policy “not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances” and “not to threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states”—since its first nuclear test detonation in 1964 (see, e.g., [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#:~:text=Nuclear%20use%20policy,21%5D%3A%E2%80%8A21)).\n\nIt appears that China has only made one nuclear threat in its history, around two decades ago: “In 2005, Chinese major general Zhu Chenghu said that China might retaliate with nuclear weapons if the United States attacked Chinese forces in a conflict over Taiwan” ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_blackmail#:~:text=In%202005%2C%20Chinese%20major%20general%20Zhu%20Chenghu%20said%20that%20China%20might%20retaliate%20with%20nuclear%20weapons%20if%20the%20United%20States%20attacked%20Chinese%20forces%20in%20a%20conflict%20over%20Taiwan.%5B17%5D)).\n\n---\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21869/us-nuclear-defense-taiwan/)\n- [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n- [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n- [If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11127/china-to-retaliate-if-us-intervenes-in-taiwan/)" }, { "id": 21869, "title": "Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?", "short_title": "US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?", "url_title": "US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?", "slug": "us-says-will-use-nukes-to-defend-taiwan", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-13T23:49:14.235663Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T15:35:25.003161Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21869, "title": "Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?", "created_at": "2024-03-13T23:49:14.235663Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since dropping atomic bombs on Japan in World War II, the U.S. has issued a number of nuclear threats, [by](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_blackmail) [some](https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/10/05/eisj-o05.html) [accounts](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.2968/062005016), including against China, Cuba, and Vietnam.\n\n---\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China make an official statement threatening nuclear use if there is interference with Taiwan?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21870/china-nuclear-taiwan-interference/)\n- [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n- [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n- [If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11127/china-to-retaliate-if-us-intervenes-in-taiwan/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, the U.S. makes an official statement threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan, if Taiwan is attacked by an adversary. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "Resolution will be determined by a panel of three or more Metaculus admins. The following are some guidelines they will follow for resolution.\n\n-For the purposes of this question, an official statement is either i) one issued by the executive branch or the White House, or ii) a public statement, including responses to questions (from reporters, say), made by the President or other spokespersons of the executive branch.\n\n-Explicit threats like “if China attacks Taiwan, we will use nuclear weapons if necessary” count for Yes resolution. Vaguer threats like “all options are on the table” also count for Yes resolution.\n\n-On “in defense of Taiwan”: a threat made against China in general in response to aggression will be considered as in defense of Taiwan if there is a reasonable case for the threat being triggered by Chinese actions against Taiwan. The panel will err on the side of being lenient/permissive with respect to “a reasonable case”.", "post_id": 21869, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762788914.156318, "end_time": 1765279076.373, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762788914.156318, "end_time": 1765279076.373, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.11209879767497585 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9696319252230643, 0.7465629541216376, 2.4697978165126475, 0.6650181153488666, 0.0, 0.6308177369379715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.9351486066977897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286870.573125, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286870.573125, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9824595202524866, 0.017540479747513348 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since dropping atomic bombs on Japan in World War II, the U.S. has issued a number of nuclear threats, [by](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_blackmail) [some](https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/10/05/eisj-o05.html) [accounts](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.2968/062005016), including against China, Cuba, and Vietnam.\n\n---\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China make an official statement threatening nuclear use if there is interference with Taiwan?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21870/china-nuclear-taiwan-interference/)\n- [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n- [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n- [If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11127/china-to-retaliate-if-us-intervenes-in-taiwan/)" }, { "id": 21867, "title": "Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?", "short_title": "Successful Discharge Petition 118th Congress?", "url_title": "Successful Discharge Petition 118th Congress?", "slug": "successful-discharge-petition-118th-congress", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-13T19:25:58.452052Z", "published_at": "2024-03-14T20:41:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.276089Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-14T20:41:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-14T20:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21867, "title": "Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?", "created_at": "2024-03-13T19:25:58.452052Z", "open_time": "2024-03-14T20:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-17T20:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-17T20:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T21:47:19.700120Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 13 February 2024, the $95-billion overseas aid bill passed the US Senate in a 70-29 vote; however, the US Speaker Mike Johnson refused to say he would bring the bill to the floor of the House. \n\nCongress members may bypass the Speaker's will by filing a [discharge petition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition) and bringing the bill from the committee to the floor; however, to succeed, it needs to be signed by the majority of the House members. \n\nDue to the public signing process and the petition requiring signatures of the House majority, they are rarely successful. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition#:~:text=Between%201931%20and%202003%2C%20563%20discharge%20petitions%20were%20filed%2C%20of%20which%20only%2047%20obtained%20the%20required%20majority%20of%20signatures.):\n\n>Between 1931 and 2003, 563 discharge petitions were filed, of which only 47 obtained the required majority of signatures.\n\nAs of 13 March 2024, 10 discharge petitions had been filed at the 118th Congress, none of which had been signed by a House majority (218 votes).\n\nIn regard to the overseas aid bill, two discharge petitions: [No.9](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031209?CongressNum=118) and [No.10](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031210?CongressNum=118) were filed on 12 March 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any discharge petition listed on the [Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/?CongressNum=118) page and filed during the [118th Congress term](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress) receives 218 signatures or more.\n\nIf none of the discharge petitions have satisfied the above criteria by the end of the last day of work of the 118th Congress, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question is specifically about reaching the 218 signatures threshold. Even if the U.S. House is downsized and requires fewer votes for a majority, the question will still need 218 signatures to resolve as **Yes**.\n\nIf some signatures are retracted after reaching the threshold, the question will still resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 21867, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735314300.576522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735314300.576522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.012071430382471179 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.7231051884742525, 1.0590501540780513, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -42.475583991165834, "peer_score": -2.9464009572132803, "coverage": 0.20808598547031087, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9897496286021531, "spot_peer_score": -10.353450656830924, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "baseline_archived_score": -42.475583991165834, "peer_archived_score": -2.9464009572132803, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.353450656830924, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288468.728372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288468.728372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 13 February 2024, the $95-billion overseas aid bill passed the US Senate in a 70-29 vote; however, the US Speaker Mike Johnson refused to say he would bring the bill to the floor of the House. \n\nCongress members may bypass the Speaker's will by filing a [discharge petition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition) and bringing the bill from the committee to the floor; however, to succeed, it needs to be signed by the majority of the House members. \n\nDue to the public signing process and the petition requiring signatures of the House majority, they are rarely successful. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition#:~:text=Between%201931%20and%202003%2C%20563%20discharge%20petitions%20were%20filed%2C%20of%20which%20only%2047%20obtained%20the%20required%20majority%20of%20signatures.):\n\n>Between 1931 and 2003, 563 discharge petitions were filed, of which only 47 obtained the required majority of signatures.\n\nAs of 13 March 2024, 10 discharge petitions had been filed at the 118th Congress, none of which had been signed by a House majority (218 votes).\n\nIn regard to the overseas aid bill, two discharge petitions: [No.9](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031209?CongressNum=118) and [No.10](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031210?CongressNum=118) were filed on 12 March 2024." }, { "id": 21864, "title": "Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Christiano Confirmed at US AISI by April 1?", "url_title": "Christiano Confirmed at US AISI by April 1?", "slug": "christiano-confirmed-at-us-aisi-by-april-1", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-13T16:36:11.227925Z", "published_at": "2024-03-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.303122Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21864, "title": "Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-03-13T16:36:11.227925Z", "open_time": "2024-03-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-16T08:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-16T08:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A March 7, 2024, [VentureBeat article](https://venturebeat.com/ai/nist-staffers-revolt-against-potential-appointment-of-effective-altruist-ai-researcher-to-us-ai-safety-institute/) claimed that AI safety researcher [Paul Christiano](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Christiano_(researcher)) was expected to be appointed to a role at a newly announced branch of the US [National Institute of Standards and Technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institute_of_Standards_and_Technology) (NIST) known as the US [Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute](https://www.nist.gov/artificial-intelligence/artificial-intelligence-safety-institute) (USAISI). The article claimed that Christiano's expected appointment had upset some NIST staff members and led some staff members to threaten to resign. The article attributes the disturbance to be caused by Christiano's affiliation with effective altruism and longtermism, and a negative impression of those affiliation held by some staffers.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, either Paul Christiano or representatives for NIST or the US AI Safety Institute (USAISI) officially and publicly confirm that Paul Christiano will be employed at the USAISI.", "fine_print": "Leaks or anonymous reports do not count.\n\nThe question resolves as **Yes** if an official confirmation is made, regardless of whether it is later retracted.\n\nParticipation in the [US AI Safety Institute Consortium](https://www.nist.gov/artificial-intelligence/artificial-intelligence-safety-institute) (AISIC) without direct employment by NIST or the US AI Safety Institute does not count.", "post_id": 21864, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711892403.047301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711892403.047301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0352666682793332 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.348126486903041, 7.241014576046683, 0.04006867348160595, 0.17346772773520647, 0.21421001891159933, 0.0981670382747311, 0.0, 0.2323433889688867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14015431126769545, 0.0, 0.006759718771926677, 0.007745309224094398, 0.0, 0.05527481441384345, 0.0, 0.005868104256488185, 0.0, 0.003689275185039177, 0.1478309882034365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0043392766864219865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19006146741082358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899978921399792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021274407994285806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004992891021050837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010381920838562959 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.407228614515777, "coverage": 0.9999112376795046, "baseline_score": 70.87811484249687, "spot_peer_score": 21.487926376263893, "peer_archived_score": 20.407228614515777, "baseline_archived_score": 70.87811484249687, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.487926376263893 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711892403.0948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711892403.0948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 322, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A March 7, 2024, [VentureBeat article](https://venturebeat.com/ai/nist-staffers-revolt-against-potential-appointment-of-effective-altruist-ai-researcher-to-us-ai-safety-institute/) claimed that AI safety researcher [Paul Christiano](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Christiano_(researcher)) was expected to be appointed to a role at a newly announced branch of the US [National Institute of Standards and Technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institute_of_Standards_and_Technology) (NIST) known as the US [Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute](https://www.nist.gov/artificial-intelligence/artificial-intelligence-safety-institute) (USAISI). The article claimed that Christiano's expected appointment had upset some NIST staff members and led some staff members to threaten to resign. The article attributes the disturbance to be caused by Christiano's affiliation with effective altruism and longtermism, and a negative impression of those affiliation held by some staffers." }, { "id": 21860, "title": "Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Revolut banking licence", "url_title": "Revolut banking licence", "slug": "revolut-banking-licence", "author_id": 105150, "author_username": "johnfitzpatrick", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-12T12:27:32.955627Z", "published_at": "2024-05-19T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.959727Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-19T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T08:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-19T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21860, "title": "Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-03-12T12:27:32.955627Z", "open_time": "2024-05-19T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-22T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-22T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T08:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T08:13:53.674606Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded, neobrokers like [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/gb/en/) or [Freetrade](https://freetrade.io/) have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like [Nubank](https://international.nubank.com.br/about/), which is currently valued over 100B$, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in LatAm. Revolut, born in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\n[Revolut](https://revolut.com/) has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut has [a banking licence for the EEA (European Economic Area), that was granted by the Bank of Lithuania](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/). However, the company has failed to obtain a banking license in the UK; limiting its ability to offer certain products and services to its customers. It currently operates as [an \"e-money institution\" in the UK](https://www.revolut.com/blog/post/can-you-use-revolut-as-a-bank-account/).\n\nTwo of the main concerns seem to have been the company's management of anti-money laundering (AML) risks and its complex capital structure. It was announced in October 2023 that the company had reached an agreement with its shareholders about [collapsing all of its share classes into one](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/revolut-strikes-share-deal-with-softbank-remove-barrier-uk-licence-ft-2023-10-03/). However, issues around its AML track record were still being mentioned in the press as recently as [September 2023](https://www.ft.com/content/2faf1799-78d9-4316-8e1d-590d2c601ac6). \n\nAdditional resource: \nFrom the FT, [Will Revolut ever get a British banking licence?](https://www.ft.com/content/6d2eef34-d414-49c7-8557-c43a3d9ab803)\n\n[What Revolut’s attempt to secure a UK banking licence could mean for its current customers and for the ‘unbanked’](https://theconversation.com/what-revoluts-attempt-to-secure-a-uk-banking-licence-could-mean-for-its-current-customers-and-for-the-unbanked-215196)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Revolut secures a [banking license](https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/financial-services-register) from the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), either directly or through indirect means such as authorisation to acquire another bank or company already holding a UK banking license.\n\nThe question resolves based on any formal announcement from the FCA (or other UK regulatory entity able to grant a banking license) or from other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that Revolut will be obtaining a banking license. 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Revolut, born in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\n[Revolut](https://revolut.com/) has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut has [a banking licence for the EEA (European Economic Area), that was granted by the Bank of Lithuania](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/). However, the company has failed to obtain a banking license in the UK; limiting its ability to offer certain products and services to its customers. It currently operates as [an \"e-money institution\" in the UK](https://www.revolut.com/blog/post/can-you-use-revolut-as-a-bank-account/).\n\nTwo of the main concerns seem to have been the company's management of anti-money laundering (AML) risks and its complex capital structure. It was announced in October 2023 that the company had reached an agreement with its shareholders about [collapsing all of its share classes into one](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/revolut-strikes-share-deal-with-softbank-remove-barrier-uk-licence-ft-2023-10-03/). However, issues around its AML track record were still being mentioned in the press as recently as [September 2023](https://www.ft.com/content/2faf1799-78d9-4316-8e1d-590d2c601ac6). \n\nAdditional resource: \nFrom the FT, [Will Revolut ever get a British banking licence?](https://www.ft.com/content/6d2eef34-d414-49c7-8557-c43a3d9ab803)\n\n[What Revolut’s attempt to secure a UK banking licence could mean for its current customers and for the ‘unbanked’](https://theconversation.com/what-revoluts-attempt-to-secure-a-uk-banking-licence-could-mean-for-its-current-customers-and-for-the-unbanked-215196)" } ] }
