Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3140
{ "count": 6358, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3160", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3120", "results": [ { "id": 21856, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Iran Has No Nuclear Weapon on July 31, 2025", "url_title": "Iran Has No Nuclear Weapon on July 31, 2025", "slug": "iran-has-no-nuclear-weapon-on-july-31-2025", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [ { "id": 164919, "username": "srid" }, { "id": 123948, "username": "pedroacosta" } ], "created_at": "2024-03-12T04:26:52.362513Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.669862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:26.300664Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-02T11:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:27:28.969055Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21856, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-03-12T04:26:52.362513Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-02T11:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-02T11:12:02.321641Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nuclear_iran_behtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) and was offered to John Podhoretz on July 28, 2015 at 10:1 odds favoring Caplan**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>John Podhoretz:\n\n>\"The United States and its allies have struck a deal with Iran that\neffectively ensures that it will be a nuclear state with ballistic\nmissiles in 10 years, assuming Iran adheres to the deal’s terms, which\nis a very large assumption.\"\n\n>Such supreme confidence cries out for a bet. Draft terms: John gives me 10:1 odds that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2025 according to (a) any major U.S. newspaper (NYT, WSJ, up to three others of John’s choice) or (b) any major international agency (Atomic Energy Commission, U.N., up to three others of John’s choice). If this happens, I immediately owe him $100. Otherwise, he owes me $1000 on August 1, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n*Note that this wager was offered by Bryan Caplan, but it does not appear in the bets wiki.**\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per reporting in the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21856, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753855901.287836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753855901.287836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9648865225309003 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016079834428119808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08734309772970561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005868104256488185, 0.0004992891021050837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08368886882568978, 0.8384708239380203, 0.0, 0.030097723134820904, 0.0, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.0, 0.022225972450640584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04809577689274304, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.06813627848605193, 0.0, 0.9485845595586091, 0.05952447646170147, 0.3131471740787339, 0.010028489695676875, 0.036486146261818564, 0.24558486999728796, 0.1146751907262134, 0.1293948440529297, 1.5815367765813075, 11.064071207616948 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 88.49189608627637, "peer_score": 9.792317103002976, "coverage": 0.9999937158286569, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999937158286569, "spot_peer_score": 13.916623502686862, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "baseline_archived_score": 88.49189608627637, "peer_archived_score": 9.792317103002976, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.916623502686862, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287769.520233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287769.520233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11383012133477677, 0.8861698786652232 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 236, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nuclear_iran_behtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) and was offered to John Podhoretz on July 28, 2015 at 10:1 odds favoring Caplan**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>John Podhoretz:\n\n>\"The United States and its allies have struck a deal with Iran that\neffectively ensures that it will be a nuclear state with ballistic\nmissiles in 10 years, assuming Iran adheres to the deal’s terms, which\nis a very large assumption.\"\n\n>Such supreme confidence cries out for a bet. Draft terms: John gives me 10:1 odds that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2025 according to (a) any major U.S. newspaper (NYT, WSJ, up to three others of John’s choice) or (b) any major international agency (Atomic Energy Commission, U.N., up to three others of John’s choice). If this happens, I immediately owe him $100. Otherwise, he owes me $1000 on August 1, 2025." }, { "id": 21829, "title": "Will an MLB pitcher who averages 91.0 mph or slower on his fastball win the Cy Young Award before the 2036 MLB season?", "short_title": "Soft tosser wins the Cy Young before 2036?", "url_title": "Soft tosser wins the Cy Young before 2036?", "slug": "soft-tosser-wins-the-cy-young-before-2036", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-11T08:42:55.028235Z", "published_at": "2024-04-20T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.075736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-20T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-03-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-03-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-20T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21829, "title": "Will an MLB pitcher who averages 91.0 mph or slower on his fastball win the Cy Young Award before the 2036 MLB season?", "created_at": "2024-03-11T08:42:55.028235Z", "open_time": "2024-04-20T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-03-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-03-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-03-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Cy Young Award is the most prestigious award exclusively available to pitchers in Major League Baseball.\n\nAmong the various types of throws a pitcher can make is the fastball. Its velocity is correlated with pitcher success as measured by strikeout rate. Pitchers who can throw at exceptional speeds are known as \"fireballers\" or \"flamethrowers\"; players whose throws go slower have to rely more on locating their pitches, changing speeds, and using breaking balls. Fastball velocity has been steadily rising throughout the 2010s.\n\nRecent Cy Young Award winners who would trigger positive resolution are [Rick Porcello (2016 AL, 90.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rick-porcello-519144?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) [Dallas Keuchel (2015 AL, 89.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dallas-keuchel-572971?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) R.A. Dickey (2012 NL), and Brandon Webb (2006).\n\nFor perspective, other soft-tossers who have successful seasons are Clayton Kershaw (2023, 90.7 mph, 10th percentile in MLB) and Hyun Jin Ryu (2019, 90.5 mph, 14th percentile). To illustrate the league-wide increase in fastball velocity, Rick Porcello's was in the 21st percentile in 2016 (90.9 mph) and Dallas Keuchel was in the 15th percentile in 2015 (89.9 mph).\n\nMoreover, there has been an \"epidemic\" of pitcher arm injuries in Major League Baseball. The most common injury is a tear of the elbow's ulnar collateral ligament; recovery from the surgery to fix it usually takes more than a year. [Many observers](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39900377/mlb-pitching-injuries-tommy-john-issue-shane-bieber-spencer-strider-eury-perez) attribute the injuries to harder and maximum-effort throwing, even though team managers restrict the amount of competitive innings their pitchers throw.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves YES if a Cy Young Award winner, as officially announced by Major League Baseball or the Baseball Writers' Association of America, has a reported fastball velocity lower than 91.0 mph.\n\nThe source of the players' stat is MLB Statcast or a successor system; absent that, the most reliable alternative can be used. What counts is whatever definition of \"fastball velocity\" the system uses at the time.\n\nIf there is no such stat reported by the reference system, what will be used is, to the best possible approximation if needed, the average of the four-seam fastball and the \"sinker\" or two-seam fastball. This average is weighted by number of pitches and excludes cut and split-finger fastballs.", "fine_print": "All of the following conditions need to be true for this question to resolve conclusively (YES or NO):\n\n- there is an award that is the Cy Young or some other distinction given for being the best pitcher.\n- the award is given to both the AL and the NL; if league composition or structure changes, the number of teams playing in a season divided by the number of awardees must be \\10 <= n <= 20\\.\n- the award does not discriminate on the basis of left-handedness like the [Warren Spahn](https://oklahomasportshalloffame.org/warren-spahn-award), overcoming adversity like the [Tony Conigliaro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Conigliaro_Award), or other criteria such as gender. However, de facto discrimination against relief pitchers is acceptable, since that is the status quo as of question creation.\n- specifically to resolve NO, this award must have been given for 8 or more seasons of MLB or a clear successor league in which the winning pitcher's team has played at least 50 games.\n\nIf any of the conditions above does not hold, the question is *Annulled*.\n\nA female or non-binary pitcher winning the award fulfilling the conditions of the question resolves it YES.", "post_id": 21829, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758864872.611587, "end_time": 1788591779.798922, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.269 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758864872.611587, "end_time": 1788591779.798922, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.269 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2586025675928224 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2086429191039083, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287886.496938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287886.496938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8859588349076674, 0.11404116509233263 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Cy Young Award is the most prestigious award exclusively available to pitchers in Major League Baseball.\n\nAmong the various types of throws a pitcher can make is the fastball. Its velocity is correlated with pitcher success as measured by strikeout rate. Pitchers who can throw at exceptional speeds are known as \"fireballers\" or \"flamethrowers\"; players whose throws go slower have to rely more on locating their pitches, changing speeds, and using breaking balls. Fastball velocity has been steadily rising throughout the 2010s.\n\nRecent Cy Young Award winners who would trigger positive resolution are [Rick Porcello (2016 AL, 90.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rick-porcello-519144?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) [Dallas Keuchel (2015 AL, 89.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dallas-keuchel-572971?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) R.A. Dickey (2012 NL), and Brandon Webb (2006).\n\nFor perspective, other soft-tossers who have successful seasons are Clayton Kershaw (2023, 90.7 mph, 10th percentile in MLB) and Hyun Jin Ryu (2019, 90.5 mph, 14th percentile). To illustrate the league-wide increase in fastball velocity, Rick Porcello's was in the 21st percentile in 2016 (90.9 mph) and Dallas Keuchel was in the 15th percentile in 2015 (89.9 mph).\n\nMoreover, there has been an \"epidemic\" of pitcher arm injuries in Major League Baseball. The most common injury is a tear of the elbow's ulnar collateral ligament; recovery from the surgery to fix it usually takes more than a year. [Many observers](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39900377/mlb-pitching-injuries-tommy-john-issue-shane-bieber-spencer-strider-eury-perez) attribute the injuries to harder and maximum-effort throwing, even though team managers restrict the amount of competitive innings their pitchers throw." }, { "id": 21821, "title": "Will China have placed 5 or more U.S. companies onto its Unreliable Entities List before 2030?", "short_title": "Five US Corps. in China's UEL?", "url_title": "Five US Corps. in China's UEL?", "slug": "five-us-corps-in-chinas-uel", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-10T16:24:31.229412Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.983859Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21821, "title": "Will China have placed 5 or more U.S. companies onto its Unreliable Entities List before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-10T16:24:31.229412Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-05T22:55:55.377877Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February 2023, China’s Ministry of Commerce used its Unreliable Entities List (UEL) for the first time, placing Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, two aerospace R&D companies with heavy contracting ties to the U.S. military, onto this list as part of the ongoing [US-China trade war](https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/in-u-s-china-trade-war-bystander-countries-increase-exports/). The notice issued announced the following measures against these companies/entities ([Pan & Tan, 2023](https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/china-added-two-us-companies-to-the-unreliable-entities-list/)):\n\n> - prohibition on import and export activities involving China;<br />\n> - prohibition on new investment in China;<br />\n> - denial of entry into China of the senior executives of these entities;<br />\n> - denial or revocation of Chinese work permits, or right to stay or reside in China granted to the senior executives of these entities; and<br />\n> - financial penalty on each of these entities equivalent to two times the value of arms sales made to Taiwan since the date of issuance of the UEL Regulations (i.e., September 19, 2020), payable within 15 days of the announcement, failing which additional penalty may be imposed", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has placed 5 or more U.S. companies onto its Unreliable Entities List (UEL), according to credible reports, and **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "- A U.S. company is one that is headquartered in the U.S.\n- A U.S. company that is placed on China’s UEL but later removed still counts as one company towards resolution.\n- Since two U.S. companies, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, have already been placed on the UEL, this question resolves as Yes if three more U.S. companies are added to the list.", "post_id": 21821, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741150595.065791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741150595.065791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9009972219719065 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18626999960102558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.75374690789505, 1.2251319105471636, 0.0, 0.0, 1.632797146381482 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 1.2263857435023988, "peer_score": 0.0428259880462685, "coverage": 0.015219900888873789, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9986611870640427, "spot_peer_score": 37.36950481733895, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 1.2263857435023988, "peer_archived_score": 0.0428259880462685, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.36950481733895, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287855.499744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287855.499744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10910434419864234, 0.8908956558013577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February 2023, China’s Ministry of Commerce used its Unreliable Entities List (UEL) for the first time, placing Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, two aerospace R&D companies with heavy contracting ties to the U.S. military, onto this list as part of the ongoing [US-China trade war](https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/in-u-s-china-trade-war-bystander-countries-increase-exports/). The notice issued announced the following measures against these companies/entities ([Pan & Tan, 2023](https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/china-added-two-us-companies-to-the-unreliable-entities-list/)):\n\n> - prohibition on import and export activities involving China;<br />\n> - prohibition on new investment in China;<br />\n> - denial of entry into China of the senior executives of these entities;<br />\n> - denial or revocation of Chinese work permits, or right to stay or reside in China granted to the senior executives of these entities; and<br />\n> - financial penalty on each of these entities equivalent to two times the value of arms sales made to Taiwan since the date of issuance of the UEL Regulations (i.e., September 19, 2020), payable within 15 days of the announcement, failing which additional penalty may be imposed" }, { "id": 21805, "title": "Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?", "short_title": "Chinese Cyberattack on Taiwan Grid by 2030?", "url_title": "Chinese Cyberattack on Taiwan Grid by 2030?", "slug": "chinese-cyberattack-on-taiwan-grid-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-09T18:16:36.347244Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T15:35:27.067967Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21805, "title": "Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-09T18:16:36.347244Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China—which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory—were at a [40-year high](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58812100). And between [trade](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s-ban-on-mainland-goods-is-trade-barrier) [restrictions](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lifts-ban-taiwanese-grouper-fish-imports-carrot-stick-diplomacy-2023-12-22/) and [air defense zone incursions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21801/taiwan-adiz-violations/#:~:text=Relations%20have%20grown%20worse%20over%20recent%20years%3A%20in%202021%20there%20were%2021%20days%20of%20%E2%80%9Creactionary%E2%80%9D%20air%20incursions%2C%20while%20in%202022%20there%20were%2055%2C%20and%20in%202023%20there%20were%2064%20(Brown%20%26%20Lewis%2C%202024).), relations between China and Taiwan have taken a turn for the worse since then. This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation, namely, that China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure.\n\nAs context, assistant professor Chen Yi-fan from Taiwan's Tamkang University has suggested that [cyberattacks could precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.voanews.com/a/how-china-could-cyberattack-taiwan/6349594.html), making the invasion less costly on Chinese resources.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure that causes loss of electricity for at least 10,000 people for at least 1 day. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The affected infrastructure must be physically located in Taiwan—that is, it may not simply be an asset owned by a Taiwanese national and located abroad. As such, the affected entity must be within 40 kilometers of the island to qualify. \n\nThe attribution of the attack must be issued by either i) the United States, a [Five Eyes nation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes), or a NATO member, or ii) a reputable cybersecurity company or research organization.^ Attribution must be formal—i.e. in an on-the-record speech or in writing. A publication that uses phrases such as “China is suspected,\" or \"China is possibly,” or “China is likely” will not trigger Yes resolution. \n\n“Chinese actors” can include state or non-state actors within China. To be acting within the Chinese mainland is to be considered within the state’s internationally recognized land or naval borders. \n\nThis question will resolve based on public information available before January 1, 2030.<br /><br />\n\n^Metaculus admins will a judgment call on whether the company or organization in question counts as “reputable” in case of contention.", "post_id": 21805, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762788916.246923, "end_time": 1764241988.226111, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762788916.246923, "end_time": 1764241988.226111, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.54175563332892 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11981076312780951, 0.011325021621769293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5284603186733906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030784600481361255, 0.2274691399399458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.09454455604428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04225147949949812, 0.3129729508481285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06462956491704921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.996065134776066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3343470039728833, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.113466475816896, 0.0, 0.4387232613217865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7249861962468434, 0.1341757537316506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42259080911890784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7288213086725668, 0.07369964090399271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02593106589452041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.693983221311319, 0.0, 0.30445314579120214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04896551112574321 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289277.829085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289277.829085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7849128833650936, 0.21508711663490637 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China—which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory—were at a [40-year high](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58812100). And between [trade](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s-ban-on-mainland-goods-is-trade-barrier) [restrictions](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lifts-ban-taiwanese-grouper-fish-imports-carrot-stick-diplomacy-2023-12-22/) and [air defense zone incursions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21801/taiwan-adiz-violations/#:~:text=Relations%20have%20grown%20worse%20over%20recent%20years%3A%20in%202021%20there%20were%2021%20days%20of%20%E2%80%9Creactionary%E2%80%9D%20air%20incursions%2C%20while%20in%202022%20there%20were%2055%2C%20and%20in%202023%20there%20were%2064%20(Brown%20%26%20Lewis%2C%202024).), relations between China and Taiwan have taken a turn for the worse since then. This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation, namely, that China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure.\n\nAs context, assistant professor Chen Yi-fan from Taiwan's Tamkang University has suggested that [cyberattacks could precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.voanews.com/a/how-china-could-cyberattack-taiwan/6349594.html), making the invasion less costly on Chinese resources." }, { "id": 21804, "title": "Will China ban all imports from Taiwan, except for electronic parts/inputs, before 2030?", "short_title": "China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?", "url_title": "China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?", "slug": "china-bans-imports-from-taiwan-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-09T17:57:10.507830Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T15:35:27.210095Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21804, "title": "Will China ban all imports from Taiwan, except for electronic parts/inputs, before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-09T17:57:10.507830Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As part of generally deteriorating relations, China and Taiwan have been playing something of a tit-for-tat trade restrictions game over [recent](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s-ban-on-mainland-goods-is-trade-barrier) [months](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lifts-ban-taiwanese-grouper-fish-imports-carrot-stick-diplomacy-2023-12-22/). This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation in this game.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, China bans all imports from Taiwan, except for electronic parts/inputs, according to credible reports. This question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The clause about electronic parts/inputs is to account for the fact that Taiwan is the world’s leading manufacturer of cutting edge [AI chips](https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ai-chips-what-they-are-and-why-they-matter/), which China is keen to get their hands on as part of the so-called [AI](https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/the-ai-race-with-the-prc-what-is-to-be-done/) [race](https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/whos-winning-the-ai-race-its-not-that-simple/). The question resolves as Yes if i) China bans all imports from Taiwan, or ii) China bans all imports from Taiwan except for some—but not necessarily all—electronic parts/inputs.", "post_id": 21804, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762788916.714706, "end_time": 1767802920.264436, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762788916.714706, "end_time": 1767802920.264436, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.13235537902643674 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.206283463315836, 2.508931478555321, 0.8690134914160405, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288567.797698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288567.797698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.992671558150316, 0.007328441849683955 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As part of generally deteriorating relations, China and Taiwan have been playing something of a tit-for-tat trade restrictions game over [recent](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s-ban-on-mainland-goods-is-trade-barrier) [months](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lifts-ban-taiwanese-grouper-fish-imports-carrot-stick-diplomacy-2023-12-22/). This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation in this game." }, { "id": 21798, "title": "Will a second US state adopt a unicameral legislature before January 1, 2050?", "short_title": "Second Unicameral US State Legislature", "url_title": "Second Unicameral US State Legislature", "slug": "second-unicameral-us-state-legislature", "author_id": 106702, "author_username": "homa_rano", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-08T22:18:46.498084Z", "published_at": "2024-04-05T13:21:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:08:12.918503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-05T13:21:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-05T13:21:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21798, "title": "Will a second US state adopt a unicameral legislature before January 1, 2050?", "created_at": "2024-03-08T22:18:46.498084Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T13:21:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-08T13:21:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-08T13:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "All US states were created with state constitutions that parallel the federal constitution in important structural ways, notably by having two separate chambers of the legislature. Some early colonies were initially established with unicameral legislatures: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and later Vermont. All of them switched to a bicameral system by 1836. Just as in the federal constitution, usually the lower house is elected from even-population districts but the upper house is chosen from fixed districts such as counties.\n\nIn 1937, [Nebraska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska_Legislature#History) became the first state to eliminate its upper chamber and adopt a unicameral legislature.\n\nIn 1964, the US Supreme Court issued its ruling in [Reynolds v Sims](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynolds_v._Sims), which ruled that all state legislative districts must be roughly proportional by population. This caused all 49 other states to have two chambers that were both elected from even-population districts.\n\nIn recent history there have been other states with unsuccessful campaigns to switch to unicameralism. Governor Jesse Ventura advocated for it in 1999 in [Minnesota](https://www.lrl.mn.gov/guides/guides?issue=uni), but it failed to pass the legislature to be put on the ballot. In 2006 a petition to put unicameralism on the ballot in Michigan failed to get enough signatures to qualify. In 2023, a bill was [introduced](https://www.pressherald.com/2023/05/08/state-lawmaker-calls-for-sweeping-review-of-maine-constitution/) in Maine to create a bipartisan commission to study a unicameral legislature among other reforms.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a US state other than Nebraska changes its legislative branch to a unicameral legislature, for any duration, and then elects and seats this legislature before January 1, 2050. This change can be established through a change to its constitution or any other action that results in the establishment, election and seating of a unicameral legislature. \n\nResolves based on state government announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21798, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757639282.388456, "end_time": 1789175283.954, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.292 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757639282.388456, "end_time": 1789175283.954, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.292 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3892389851530013 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5771962254806279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289684.96899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289684.96899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8543166148985823, 0.14568338510141768 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "All US states were created with state constitutions that parallel the federal constitution in important structural ways, notably by having two separate chambers of the legislature. Some early colonies were initially established with unicameral legislatures: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and later Vermont. All of them switched to a bicameral system by 1836. Just as in the federal constitution, usually the lower house is elected from even-population districts but the upper house is chosen from fixed districts such as counties.\n\nIn 1937, [Nebraska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska_Legislature#History) became the first state to eliminate its upper chamber and adopt a unicameral legislature.\n\nIn 1964, the US Supreme Court issued its ruling in [Reynolds v Sims](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynolds_v._Sims), which ruled that all state legislative districts must be roughly proportional by population. This caused all 49 other states to have two chambers that were both elected from even-population districts.\n\nIn recent history there have been other states with unsuccessful campaigns to switch to unicameralism. Governor Jesse Ventura advocated for it in 1999 in [Minnesota](https://www.lrl.mn.gov/guides/guides?issue=uni), but it failed to pass the legislature to be put on the ballot. In 2006 a petition to put unicameralism on the ballot in Michigan failed to get enough signatures to qualify. In 2023, a bill was [introduced](https://www.pressherald.com/2023/05/08/state-lawmaker-calls-for-sweeping-review-of-maine-constitution/) in Maine to create a bipartisan commission to study a unicameral legislature among other reforms." }, { "id": 21796, "title": "Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?", "short_title": "US TikTok ban or forced sale?", "url_title": "US TikTok ban or forced sale?", "slug": "us-tiktok-ban-or-forced-sale", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-08T12:13:38.016027Z", "published_at": "2024-03-08T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.986085Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-08T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-24T15:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-24T15:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-08T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21796, "title": "Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-03-08T12:13:38.016027Z", "open_time": "2024-03-08T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-11T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-11T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-24T15:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-24T15:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-24T15:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 7, the House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously advanced two pieces legislation both on a 50-0 vote - the [\"Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024\"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7520?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7520) and the [\"Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act\"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7521?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7521). These two bills, if passed and sign into law, would prevent applications from being available in US app stores or web hosting services when those applications are subject to the control of a foreign adversary, as defined by Congress in Title 10. This would include TikTok, currently owned by ByteDance, a Chinese company.\n\nThe bills also create a process for apps to remain on US app stores and web hosting services if they sever ties to entities subject to the control of a foreign adversary through divestment. This suggests that these laws, if passed, would require ByteDance to sell off TikTok or face it being banned in the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as *Yes* if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that the US government has taken action, through an enacted law or executive order, with at least one of the following effects:\n\n* Forces a sale of US-facing components of TikTok effective in 365 days or less relative to the date of the act being signed into law or the executive order being published.\n\n* Prevents the TikTok mobile app from being available in the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store", "fine_print": "For this question to resolve Yes, the media reporting must be in consensus that these effects are highly likely as the result of the law or executive order. These effects need not actually happen for the question to resolve Yes. Metaculus admin discretion may be used to resolve this question in the result of ambiguity.\n\nIf sources report that the law or executive order could be contested in the courts, the question will still resolve as Yes if, absent court challenges, it would satisfy the criteria described here.\n\nIf the TikTok app can be downloaded via a technical circumvention that violates the app store terms of service, this would not affect resolution of the question and the question can still resolve Yes.\n\nIf US users can still access TikTok if it was previously downloaded, this would not affect resolution and the question can still resolve Yes. That is, the app need not be forcibly uninstalled from users devices, only that it can no longer be supported by both the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store.", "post_id": 21796, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713971910.311456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713971910.311456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9478586212890935 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0011156475673499428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019429627340779368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006464075098986488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032847580080174237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020997755364407625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010964104844829023, 0.014103702851542069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273500427426623, 0.0, 0.012983441907495109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08979806954216327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20822916615838943, 0.29892610785209667, 0.013413369271493218, 0.0003727544410870008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12410077022845545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024457194516846498, 0.016587888897395042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004535844344508773, 0.0, 0.04105382078361315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000760295965181982, 0.48140431813771967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08481652188382591, 0.30530127910624005, 0.0, 0.004776341353411186, 0.030678223148784864, 0.0, 0.2911191768565242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06974324666886308, 0.0, 0.13040392920671862, 0.003146373567248406, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5229140744275282, 0.9022446465210998, 0.792510977695145, 0.400075034275845, 0.6296575351921092, 12.606922459291333 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.7636801725774403, "coverage": 0.15688130989413812, "baseline_score": 8.048716224560193, "spot_peer_score": 45.316559203539235, "peer_archived_score": 2.7636801725774403, "baseline_archived_score": 8.048716224560193, "spot_peer_archived_score": 45.316559203539235 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713946574.498626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713946574.498626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.13264152165706034, 0.8673584783429397 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 410, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 7, the House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously advanced two pieces legislation both on a 50-0 vote - the [\"Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024\"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7520?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7520) and the [\"Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act\"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7521?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7521). These two bills, if passed and sign into law, would prevent applications from being available in US app stores or web hosting services when those applications are subject to the control of a foreign adversary, as defined by Congress in Title 10. This would include TikTok, currently owned by ByteDance, a Chinese company.\n\nThe bills also create a process for apps to remain on US app stores and web hosting services if they sever ties to entities subject to the control of a foreign adversary through divestment. This suggests that these laws, if passed, would require ByteDance to sell off TikTok or face it being banned in the United States." }, { "id": 21792, "title": "Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?", "short_title": "China-Philippine Vessel Clash Before April 1?", "url_title": "China-Philippine Vessel Clash Before April 1?", "slug": "china-philippine-vessel-clash-before-april-1", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-06T19:49:46.236629Z", "published_at": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.974936Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-23T00:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-23T00:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21792, "title": "Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-03-06T19:49:46.236629Z", "open_time": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-10T01:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-10T01:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-23T00:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-23T00:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-23T00:10:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Territorial disputes over the South China Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea) have led to high tensions between China and a number of regional countries, including the Philippines. On March 5, 2024, [Chinese and Philippine military vessels collided](https://apnews.com/article/philippines-china-south-china-sea-collision-e69d9506e85d1d23685db4f220b50d71) during a Philippine resupply mission to an outpost in the South China Sea, and Chinese vessels sprayed water cannons at the Philippine vessels.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after March 6, 2024, and before April 1, 2024, credible sources report a new confrontation has occurred between Chinese and Philippine military vessels. A confrontation will be considered to be one where vessels collide or weapons, including water cannons, are used by one side against the other, and will not include aggressive behavior where no physical contact or use of weapons.", "fine_print": "A military vessel will be considered to be any vessel operating as part of a military operation, which could include civilian ships being contracted for military purposes that are escorted by military vessels. The Coast Guards of each country will be included, as will China's [Maritime Militia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_Militia_(China)).", "post_id": 21792, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711366161.076662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711366161.076662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8214866415002302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.03153587526592278, 0.09683439459933388, 0.11181352106447921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0945888962421087, 0.08472672494951185, 0.006299682402418756, 0.043483479997278966, 0.0, 0.09281559947471334, 0.0, 0.003928914836847643, 0.07920201454787276, 0.0, 0.0849874406952294, 0.003460269966480128, 0.030323138375930973, 0.043444640796242134, 0.015697917683711572, 0.5234046987406509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005007836331890419, 0.0015459354590729806, 0.042381569481501985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01836130201295985, 0.0, 0.0117915453441316, 0.0008334788163558859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12256642604463365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6511869951896028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.162319589937105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17743652524731277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29148458645309366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000295991905056472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6883739512178384, 0.0, 0.06830738353597367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1663892557059332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7666127313093721, 1.948798308361659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.336774649844069, 0.0, 0.6465806538160507, 0.5477212059366546, 6.581924289803026 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.972628347449263, "coverage": 0.6328678735264385, "baseline_score": -83.98300668630456, "spot_peer_score": 38.98453073224914, "peer_archived_score": 17.972628347449263, "baseline_archived_score": -83.98300668630456, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.98453073224914 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711144522.831741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711144522.831741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9886291830449858, 0.011370816955014148 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 248, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Territorial disputes over the South China Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea) have led to high tensions between China and a number of regional countries, including the Philippines. On March 5, 2024, [Chinese and Philippine military vessels collided](https://apnews.com/article/philippines-china-south-china-sea-collision-e69d9506e85d1d23685db4f220b50d71) during a Philippine resupply mission to an outpost in the South China Sea, and Chinese vessels sprayed water cannons at the Philippine vessels." }, { "id": 21789, "title": "Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?", "short_title": "Ariel Henry Returns to Haiti Before March 13?", "url_title": "Ariel Henry Returns to Haiti Before March 13?", "slug": "ariel-henry-returns-to-haiti-before-march-13", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-05T22:20:36.568007Z", "published_at": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.835075Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-14T03:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-14T03:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21789, "title": "Will Ariel Henry return to Haiti before March 13, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-03-05T22:20:36.568007Z", "open_time": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-08T01:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-08T01:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-14T03:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-14T03:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-14T03:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Haiti has seen [significant unrest recently](https://apnews.com/article/haiti-violence-prison-break-curfew-105ca137aa337b9e6681cf87add9a5c1), as gangs have freed thousands of prisoners from prisons and attempted to seize control of Haiti's main international airport.\n\nHaiti's Acting Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, has faced [an increased threat to his position](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21405/ariel-henry-out-as-acting-pm-by-april/) as unrest has grown. Henry has been traveling outside the country recently, leading to speculation as to whether he is intentionally avoiding returning home. [According to ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/gangs-plunge-haiti-anarchy-people-world-prime-minister-107814828):\n\n>The embattled leader, who assumed power following the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, has been notably absent since the country's latest and most serious outbreak of violence started last week. Henry has stayed silent as he crisscrosses the world, from South America to Africa, with no announced date of return.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 13, 2024, credible sources report that Ariel Henry has returned to Haiti.", "fine_print": "* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* Where information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 21789, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710276567.489779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710276567.489779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.013191962175524194 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.94033323596924, 7.8019953289608095, 0.4904499673655099, 0.20566286060455888, 0.052357273169668164, 0.8093258194940198, 0.05692018101548274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.015157278973843901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05808646440228038, 0.002949293081317581, 0.14989147521115825, 0.0, 0.0063312489975652355, 0.03797729984260407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.649539932795506, "coverage": 0.9997354795585143, "baseline_score": 84.61476610044019, "spot_peer_score": 33.977524546624856, "peer_archived_score": 16.649539932795506, "baseline_archived_score": 84.61476610044019, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.977524546624856 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710276567.518998, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710276567.518998, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 176, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Haiti has seen [significant unrest recently](https://apnews.com/article/haiti-violence-prison-break-curfew-105ca137aa337b9e6681cf87add9a5c1), as gangs have freed thousands of prisoners from prisons and attempted to seize control of Haiti's main international airport.\n\nHaiti's Acting Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, has faced [an increased threat to his position](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21405/ariel-henry-out-as-acting-pm-by-april/) as unrest has grown. Henry has been traveling outside the country recently, leading to speculation as to whether he is intentionally avoiding returning home. [According to ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/gangs-plunge-haiti-anarchy-people-world-prime-minister-107814828):\n\n>The embattled leader, who assumed power following the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, has been notably absent since the country's latest and most serious outbreak of violence started last week. Henry has stayed silent as he crisscrosses the world, from South America to Africa, with no announced date of return." }, { "id": 21782, "title": "Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?", "short_title": "US SLCM 2030", "url_title": "US SLCM 2030", "slug": "us-slcm-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-04T21:31:17.269348Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.160043Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-07T01:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T01:23:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21782, "title": "Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-04T21:31:17.269348Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T01:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-07T01:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-07T01:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US has had a hot and cold relationship with nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). The US first fielded these weapons in the 1980s, but between 2010 and 2013, under the Obama Administration, the Navy fully retired them. The Trump Administration reversed this decision in 2018, however, partly in response to Russia violating the [INF treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty), and partly to provide “a needed non-strategic regional presence” around Taiwan ([Congressional Research Service, 2022](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12084)) by funding R&D into new nuclear-armed SLCM, known as SLCM-N. However, five years later, in 2023, the Biden Administration [canceled SLCM-N funding](https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/biden-administration-kills-trump-era-nuclear-cruise-missile-program/).\n\nIn the face of rising tensions with China in the Taiwan Strait, this question asks about whether the US will make yet another U-turn regarding SLCMs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, credible reports state that the US military has resumed funding for nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile R&D. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21782, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723076796.933506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723076796.933506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8346660170370076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6763049828717671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44155902713467954, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.12403378248661255, 0.19523450305981643, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.274748066494196 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.3415656620773755, "coverage": 0.02271284683486434, "baseline_score": 0.8494241687139776, "spot_peer_score": 0.18921481520376512, "peer_archived_score": 0.3415656620773755, "baseline_archived_score": 0.8494241687139776, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.18921481520376512 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717659435.096909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717659435.096909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5138016230980642, 0.4861983769019358 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US has had a hot and cold relationship with nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). The US first fielded these weapons in the 1980s, but between 2010 and 2013, under the Obama Administration, the Navy fully retired them. The Trump Administration reversed this decision in 2018, however, partly in response to Russia violating the [INF treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty), and partly to provide “a needed non-strategic regional presence” around Taiwan ([Congressional Research Service, 2022](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12084)) by funding R&D into new nuclear-armed SLCM, known as SLCM-N. However, five years later, in 2023, the Biden Administration [canceled SLCM-N funding](https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/biden-administration-kills-trump-era-nuclear-cruise-missile-program/).\n\nIn the face of rising tensions with China in the Taiwan Strait, this question asks about whether the US will make yet another U-turn regarding SLCMs." }, { "id": 21774, "title": "If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?", "short_title": "Nikki Haley to endorse Donald Trump?", "url_title": "Nikki Haley to endorse Donald Trump?", "slug": "nikki-haley-to-endorse-donald-trump", "author_id": 120949, "author_username": "freddie.poser", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-03T17:43:57.809081Z", "published_at": "2024-03-06T00:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.718320Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-06T00:44:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-22T20:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-22T20:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-06T00:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21774, "title": "If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-03-03T17:43:57.809081Z", "open_time": "2024-03-06T00:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-09T00:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-09T00:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-22T20:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-22T20:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-22T20:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are both running for the Republican Party nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election. Traditionally defeated candidates for the nomination will endorse the party's candidate, [however Nikki Haley has cast doubt on weather she would](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1764294831134687242).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if Nikki Haley announces that she will vote for, or is encouraging other people to vote for, Donald Trump in the 2024 US Presidential Election.\n\nIf Donald Trump is not the Republican nominee, this question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21774, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716414779.287754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716414779.287754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.609073018788599 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017823678094023753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028636604341700815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6360167605213904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6418875879696253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007784236121081673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10299458082921686, 0.0, 0.2519740871949554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09222549710312164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7033254791858186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.291617142551885, 0.1274765214171608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5315279044086303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7593540370033087, 0.800591043524475, 0.0, 0.2758521521053194, 0.7362285007915425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2428872732665939, 0.07331325067154816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13910653551201954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044423031630246905, 0.7421409634973282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014847804209650994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9824377797881492 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.597500632967812, "coverage": 0.31951731672194844, "baseline_score": 12.144227607611565, "spot_peer_score": 44.858325633865455, "peer_archived_score": 8.597500632967812, "baseline_archived_score": 12.144227607611565, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.858325633865455 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716363790.961626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716363790.961626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.33563964676589364, 0.6643603532341064 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are both running for the Republican Party nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election. Traditionally defeated candidates for the nomination will endorse the party's candidate, [however Nikki Haley has cast doubt on weather she would](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1764294831134687242)." }, { "id": 21761, "title": "Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?", "short_title": "NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?", "url_title": "NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?", "slug": "nato-troops-in-ukraine-by-2027", "author_id": 132719, "author_username": "MetaCalculator", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-02T15:37:38.200997Z", "published_at": "2024-03-15T15:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T10:11:01.789388Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-15T15:24:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-15T15:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 122, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21761, "title": "Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?", "created_at": "2024-03-02T15:37:38.200997Z", "open_time": "2024-03-15T15:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-18T15:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-18T15:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the Ukraine War, NATO has repeatedly claimed that it will not engage Russian troops directly in Ukraine for fear of a major escalation between nuclear powers. However, recent battlefield setbacks for Ukraine have increased the possibility of such presence. France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) [mentioned](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/) that intervention cannot be ruled out (although having later backtracked.) The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine.\n\nNATO (or any NATO member state) could choose to deploy troops in only those areas of Ukraine not contested by Russia, and such troops might be present in a deterrent or substitution role to allow releasing more Ukrainian troops to the front lines, while still intending to avoid a direct clash with Russia. As well, NATO may choose to be present in Ukraine as further deterrent after any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, on territory still under Ukrainian control. Such presence might be with or without Russia's consent, and such consent might be formal or tacit.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, credible media sources report that combat troops from NATO countries are physically and openly present in Ukraine (under its internationally recognized borders at the time such reports are made) in significant numbers.", "fine_print": "* \"Openly\" means with the open admission of either NATO as an organization, or the government(s) of the NATO member state(s) to which the unit belongs. Informal, clandestine, or unauthorized presence or participation, such as military advisors, non-uniformed special forces, intelligence operatives, mercenaries, or private volunteers, will not resolve this question.\n* \"Physically\" requires the deployment of the unit, together with its combat equipment, as a coherent fighting force. Individual members (or small groups) of NATO units present to conduct training, intelligence, or similar tasks, rather than being deployed as a combat unit, will not resolve this question.\n* The unit must be unambiguously inside Ukraine; units merely \"patrolling the border\" from the outside, or similar, do not qualify.\n* The unit must be reported to be physically present in Ukraine for at least 7 consecutive days. Short-term raids or incursions not designed to be a prolonged physical presence will not resolve this question.\n* \"Significant numbers\" means the presence of at least 3,000 troops in total from all involved NATO countries, at least three full units the size of a battalion or regiment, or at least one full unit the size of a brigade or larger.\n* \"Combat troops\" means that the troops present are primarily equipped to take or hold physical ground, regardless of their military branch or specialty (e.g. infantry or armor would both quality.) For the purposes of this question, it excludes units primarily described as special forces, intelligence operatives, military advisors, air, anti-air, or naval units, or non-combat units.\n* A unit must only come from one or more NATO countries to resolve this question, even if operating unilaterally under national flag(s). NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be invoked.\n* The purpose, operations, or rules of engagement of such unit(s) bears no relevance to the resolution of this question. They are not required to engage Russia, only to be physically present in any part of Ukraine.\n* The (formal or informal) acknowledgement or consent to such a presence of either Russia or Ukraine bears no resolution on this question. The only acknowledgement required is by the NATO member state(s) deploying such troops.\n* If credible sources report Ukraine to no longer exist as an internationally recognized sovereign state prior to the resolution of this question, it will be resolved as \"no.\"", "post_id": 21761, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763374251.095013, "end_time": 1764148594.716, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763374251.095013, "end_time": 1764148594.716, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.22931492011154134 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.13007013919494148, 0.23431048030329107, 0.4160350980997906, 0.0, 0.3579014556788211, 0.5644485981864586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0253618207931923, 0.36207826105923424, 0.24980427836869556, 0.06219453927014032, 0.006447634808499139, 0.3098108707724843, 0.9333198310231191, 1.0, 0.03283793409746949, 0.9060272839207317, 0.020174776830818433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011658931217893395, 0.0, 1.3871901412048333, 0.025360596869753158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6541259978097677, 0.0, 0.07535300294209418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04255302797849524, 0.0, 0.6129705817627872, 0.0, 0.022015505594186534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2153378168622927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.009712334743922024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2780067488129698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7033457699064573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551866365553954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06032709531608127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287970.868051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287970.868051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9163391235951144, 0.08366087640488562 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 362, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the Ukraine War, NATO has repeatedly claimed that it will not engage Russian troops directly in Ukraine for fear of a major escalation between nuclear powers. However, recent battlefield setbacks for Ukraine have increased the possibility of such presence. France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) [mentioned](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/) that intervention cannot be ruled out (although having later backtracked.) The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine.\n\nNATO (or any NATO member state) could choose to deploy troops in only those areas of Ukraine not contested by Russia, and such troops might be present in a deterrent or substitution role to allow releasing more Ukrainian troops to the front lines, while still intending to avoid a direct clash with Russia. As well, NATO may choose to be present in Ukraine as further deterrent after any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, on territory still under Ukrainian control. Such presence might be with or without Russia's consent, and such consent might be formal or tacit." }, { "id": 21757, "title": "Will any political party in Indonesia that wasn't represented in the 2024-2029 House of Representatives (DPR) get any seats in the 2029 election?", "short_title": "New parties in Indonesian Parliament in 2029", "url_title": "New parties in Indonesian Parliament in 2029", "slug": "new-parties-in-indonesian-parliament-in-2029", "author_id": 168828, "author_username": "YellowSpectacular", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-02T06:34:13.832092Z", "published_at": "2024-04-09T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.595892Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-09T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-03-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-04-30T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-09T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21757, "title": "Will any political party in Indonesia that wasn't represented in the 2024-2029 House of Representatives (DPR) get any seats in the 2029 election?", "created_at": "2024-03-02T06:34:13.832092Z", "open_time": "2024-04-09T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-04-30T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-03-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-03-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It has been announced that in 2024, [only 8 political parties](https://jdih.kpu.go.id/data/data_kepkpu/2024kpt360.pdf): Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, Golkar Party, Gerindra Party, National Awakening Party, Nasdem Party, Prosperous Justice Party, Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party got seats in the Indonesian DPR (the lower house of Parliament). This is not dissimilar from the parliamentary composition of the last DPR of 2020-2024. Meanwhile, there have been parties that got at least a million votes, yet still did not obtain seats (Indonesian Solidarity Party, Perindo Party, Gelora Party). Will any of these, or perhaps a complete newcomer, be able to obtain seats in the next election?", "resolution_criteria": "Resolve YES if it is announced that a party that was not in the indonesian DPR between 2024 and 2029 has obtained seats in the 2029 general election.", "fine_print": "If a new party is formed from a split of existing Parliamentary parties, so that the new party has seats in the DPR right from the start, then it does not count for resolving this question as YES.", "post_id": 21757, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751953516.2386, "end_time": 1766066571.377991, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.273 ], "centers": [ 0.273 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751953516.2386, "end_time": 1766066571.377991, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.273 ], "centers": [ 0.273 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.727, 0.273 ], "means": [ 0.5972269968239172 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287078.659842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287078.659842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8673575882230298, 0.13264241177697017 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It has been announced that in 2024, [only 8 political parties](https://jdih.kpu.go.id/data/data_kepkpu/2024kpt360.pdf): Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, Golkar Party, Gerindra Party, National Awakening Party, Nasdem Party, Prosperous Justice Party, Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party got seats in the Indonesian DPR (the lower house of Parliament). This is not dissimilar from the parliamentary composition of the last DPR of 2020-2024. Meanwhile, there have been parties that got at least a million votes, yet still did not obtain seats (Indonesian Solidarity Party, Perindo Party, Gelora Party). Will any of these, or perhaps a complete newcomer, be able to obtain seats in the next election?" }, { "id": 21611, "title": "Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?", "short_title": "Spain Snap Election in 2024?", "url_title": "Spain Snap Election in 2024?", "slug": "spain-snap-election-in-2024", "author_id": 133447, "author_username": "pregonero.milenial", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-01T11:19:16.686018Z", "published_at": "2024-03-23T16:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.369520Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-23T16:04:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:16:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-23T16:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21611, "title": "Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?", "created_at": "2024-03-01T11:19:16.686018Z", "open_time": "2024-03-23T16:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-26T16:04:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-26T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T20:18:55.557380Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Spanish democracy has a mechanism where the president can call a [snap election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snap_election#Spain), described in Section 115 of the [Spanish constitution](https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/documents/constitucion_inglescorregido.pdf). The [last election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election) was held July 23, 2023, after [snap elections were called](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/spanish-prime-minister-calls-for-early-general-election.html). The [next Spanish general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Spanish_general_election) is scheduled to be held by August of 2027, but potentially could be called much earlier.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, a dissolution of the Spanish Congress has been announced, with a snap election called.", "fine_print": "The official act that counts for the resolution is a royal proclamation of dissolution. No other acts are required; in particular, the election date need not have been set or occurred yet. It is immaterial to the question whether some government is formed and collapses, or if no investiture is possible, as well as which government remains as caretaker.", "post_id": 21611, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735657241.390141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.015 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735657241.390141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.029918345323340954 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.474157136341674, 3.3200921969779906, 0.2893506753269389, 0.3426424443372215, 0.1533679428866179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47550520209422537, 0.18527705034115113, 0.0, 0.13813119694791304, 0.43776641345902195, 0.16871148880955214, 0.12605111094439408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002308706629581291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798170450445946, 0.0, 0.13402947752393152, 0.023413487787231745, 0.0, 0.11504570910861234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007946689641207845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020064761700770095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035814214006338115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017059162801949267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 84.6704844220104, "peer_score": 19.45393679330036, "coverage": 0.9994165320468968, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994165320468968, "spot_peer_score": 6.08026058467496, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830476, "baseline_archived_score": 84.6704844220104, "peer_archived_score": 19.45393679330036, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.08026058467496, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830476 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289723.946562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289723.946562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9958948917562896, 0.004105108243710336 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Spanish democracy has a mechanism where the president can call a [snap election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snap_election#Spain), described in Section 115 of the [Spanish constitution](https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/documents/constitucion_inglescorregido.pdf). The [last election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election) was held July 23, 2023, after [snap elections were called](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/spanish-prime-minister-calls-for-early-general-election.html). The [next Spanish general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Spanish_general_election) is scheduled to be held by August of 2027, but potentially could be called much earlier." }, { "id": 21553, "title": "Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?", "short_title": "AI causes 1K deaths or $200B loss?", "url_title": "AI causes 1K deaths or $200B loss?", "slug": "ai-causes-1k-deaths-or-200b-loss", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-28T14:23:05.057107Z", "published_at": "2024-03-06T00:49:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T00:14:21.862553Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-06T00:49:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-06T00:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21553, "title": "Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?", "created_at": "2024-02-28T14:23:05.057107Z", "open_time": "2024-03-06T00:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-09T00:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-09T00:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Risks from Artificial intelligence are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilization in the coming centuries.\n\nAnthropic's [Responsible Scaling Policy v1.0](https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/1adf000c8f675958c2ee23805d91aaade1cd4613/responsible-scaling-policy.pdf) defines a \"catastrophic risk\" from AI as \"for\nexample, thousands of deaths or hundreds of billions of dollars in damage) that is directly caused by an AI model and wouldn’t have occurred without it\". In this question, we ask whether Anthropic's \"catastrophic risk\" threshold will be met within the next eight years.\n\nThis question is closely related to [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7814/ai-incident-causes-1bn-damage-before-2032/) but with a much higher threshold.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2032, there are three credible media reports indicating that there has been one or more events precipitated by AI malfunction which caused either 1000+ deaths or $200bn 2021 USD in economic damage.\n\nMultiple incidents stemming from the same source can count for the question to resolve as Yes. To be considered from the same source the incidents must be attributable to a specific flaw or version of an AI. For example, deaths from [a prior major version](https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/11/tesla-autopilot-8-0-uses-radar-to-prevent-accidents-like-the-fatal-model-s-crash/) of Tesla’s self-driving car software would not be summed with deaths attributable to later versions.\n\nTo count as _precipitated by AI malfunction_ an incident should involve an AI system behaving unexpectedly. An example could be if an AI system autonomously driving cars caused hundreds of deaths which would have been easily avoidable for human drivers, or if an AI system overseeing a hospital system took actions to cause patient deaths as a result of misinterpreting a goal to minimise bed usage.\n\nTo be considered easily avoidable an incident must not involve human negligence. For example, if a human is expected to monitor the AI and promptly intervene, a failure to intervene resulting in death or economic damage would not be considered attributable to an AI malfunction unless the AI malfunction was such that a human could not reasonably be expected to prevent it. If, for example, the [Boeing MCAS system](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Augmentation_System) had been an AI system and there was no possibility for the pilots to override its decision to lower the aeroplane nose, leading to a fatal crash, this would count for resolution.\n\nDeaths or damage caused by an AI's expected and intended behavior will not be included; for example, AIs used to target enemy combatants in war would be excluded, as well as AIs successfully performing a medical treatment as specified, despite the treatment causing harms that the doctors or designers were unaware of. An unexpected malfunction of an AI system used in war leading to collateral damage would qualify for the question to resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "A system should be considered AI if it is widely considered to be AI (e.g. by the credible media reports resolving the question). If this is not sufficiently clear for resolution, then as a secondary criterion, any system using machine learning techniques which has an agentic role in the disaster in question should count for this question.\n\nEconomic damage will be considered to be expenses incurred by damage to physical or technological systems or by obstruction of productive output. For example, causing a power outage which leads to economic loss from affected businesses would count, while losing money in an AI-directed investment portfolio would not.", "post_id": 21553, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760660051.156906, "end_time": 1763833641.448189, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760660051.156906, "end_time": 1763833641.448189, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4406092678340029 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287085.996636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287085.996636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.884220149787119, 0.11577985021288097 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Risks from Artificial intelligence are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilization in the coming centuries.\n\nAnthropic's [Responsible Scaling Policy v1.0](https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/1adf000c8f675958c2ee23805d91aaade1cd4613/responsible-scaling-policy.pdf) defines a \"catastrophic risk\" from AI as \"for\nexample, thousands of deaths or hundreds of billions of dollars in damage) that is directly caused by an AI model and wouldn’t have occurred without it\". In this question, we ask whether Anthropic's \"catastrophic risk\" threshold will be met within the next eight years.\n\nThis question is closely related to [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7814/ai-incident-causes-1bn-damage-before-2032/) but with a much higher threshold." }, { "id": 21550, "title": "Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?", "short_title": "2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote?", "url_title": "2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote?", "slug": "2024-us-election-winner-to-win-popular-vote", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-28T04:57:25.392464Z", "published_at": "2024-03-11T14:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.086954Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-11T14:20:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-11T14:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21550, "title": "Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?", "created_at": "2024-02-28T04:57:25.392464Z", "open_time": "2024-03-11T14:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-14T14:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-14T14:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T20:16:09.030304Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States. \n\nThe election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College).\n\n\nIn December the electors will cast their votes for the President. In January, Congress counts and certifies these votes to determine who will be elected president. If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes the president will be decided by the [United States House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) in a [contingent election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election).\n\nSince the inception of the United States, [five elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote) have resulted in the winner losing the popular vote.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as **No**.\n\nIt will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.", "fine_print": "If the 2024 United States presidential election is not held or if congress does not certify the vote by February 1, 2025 the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n\nThe popular vote will be determined by the official vote count provided by the Federal Election Commission.", "post_id": 21550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730658111.394492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.749 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730658111.394492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.749 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.251, 0.749 ], "means": [ 0.7328540754171566 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.10611903764842559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03247615849383687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013566382457547477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10260846963699011, 0.00018564709102016926, 0.0, 0.7677554711016423, 0.018845670598932204, 0.3776535919364625, 0.0, 0.005978849674628248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21469285770973778, 0.5023031181425797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025134178191185503, 0.9817945685623051, 0.04576886412995464, 0.0006390070510595393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1386378778278722, 0.7663376444129167, 0.6557653380197823, 0.46771217623817773, 0.0, 0.9716499364584603, 1.0139002007473634, 0.005338748039204726, 1.0656445225144187, 0.9801584024610793, 3.283932704346109, 0.3117626014929859, 0.0, 0.47327628183067416, 0.0, 1.3799272100256075, 0.07489538194570286, 0.35398441710859924, 0.09910720287960686, 0.0, 0.0007910310761167284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21705050326553513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08041172864559165, 0.23047228970092284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9440978066648134 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.73180313387507, "peer_score": 10.552172772057208, "coverage": 0.9997205763829792, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997205763829792, "spot_peer_score": 14.79074356046256, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "baseline_archived_score": 43.73180313387507, "peer_archived_score": 10.552172772057208, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.79074356046256, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287863.274708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287863.274708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3092822861599144, 0.6907177138400856 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 325, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States. \n\nThe election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College).\n\n\nIn December the electors will cast their votes for the President. In January, Congress counts and certifies these votes to determine who will be elected president. If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes the president will be decided by the [United States House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) in a [contingent election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election).\n\nSince the inception of the United States, [five elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote) have resulted in the winner losing the popular vote." }, { "id": 21548, "title": "Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?", "short_title": "Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?", "url_title": "Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?", "slug": "conflict-of-russia-and-nato-state-by-2027", "author_id": 132719, "author_username": "MetaCalculator", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-28T00:36:07.330641Z", "published_at": "2024-03-17T15:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:47:42.744210Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-17T15:24:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-17T15:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21548, "title": "Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?", "created_at": "2024-02-28T00:36:07.330641Z", "open_time": "2024-03-17T15:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-20T15:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-20T15:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have repeatedly claimed that they will not directly engage Russian forces. However, recent news have mentioned a possibility of escalation, including France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) mentioning that intervention [cannot be ruled out](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/). The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine. \n\nShould Russia expand its Ukraine war, possibly carrying it beyond the initial war goals of Eastern and Southern Ukraine, a direct conflict seems more plausible. Possible theaters of operation include Russia and Ukraine proper (in their internationally recognized borders), the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, the Baltic States, and Moldova (including Transnistria.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible media sources report a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before January 1, 2027. For this question, a direct conflict would be defined as any of the following:\n\n* Any presence of uniformed troops within the internationally recognized borders of a hostile state without permission (whether these are NATO soldiers within Russian borders, or Russian soldiers within the borders of any NATO member state.)\n* A direct and intentional military attack resulting in fatalities within the internationally recognized territory of Russia and/or any NATO country, acknowledged by the attacker or widely reported by credible sources, to have been intentionally carried out by a NATO country or Russia, respectively. This includes aerial attacks or air defense.\n* A direct military engagement resulting in fatalities of uniformed soldiers of a NATO member state or Russia, within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, or any other country (including international waters.)\n\nFor the purposes of this question, any NATO member state may act either as part of NATO as a whole, or on its own. NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be applicable.", "fine_print": "The following will not be considered a \"direct military engagement\" and will not resolve this question:\n\n* A clash or confrontation not resulting in fatalities.\n\n* Informal, clandestine, or unauthorized presence or participation, such as military advisors, non-uniformed special forces, mercenaries, or private volunteers.\n\n* Espionage or sabotage activities (whether physical or cyber) that are not reported as direct military action.\n\n* Any aid short of direct engagement (materiel, training, intelligence, etc.)\n\n* An attack which is claimed to be accidental (or not acknowledged to have taken place) by the attacker, or is acknowledged as accidental (or not acknowledged at all) by the attacked party, and which does not result in further direct military escalation.\n\nA country that joins NATO and either at the time of joining or following its admission to NATO satisfies these criteria will resolve the question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 21548, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763333252.299108, "end_time": 1766597902.776866, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763333252.299108, "end_time": 1766597902.776866, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18854008548330486 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6306328670990796, 0.4830086741038853, 0.055064475542931285, 0.03315983623080429, 0.6139885793866331, 0.04478739497884664, 0.9413790038945544, 0.5271525541054037, 0.017741576519297485, 1.831759593341499, 0.015204078447885579, 0.35515266459638917, 0.0, 0.7972658034199205, 0.8929444118329848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.9157772671750113, 0.03974132889310917, 0.0, 0.9116823671609446, 0.0, 0.10545724016089074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1278411749500892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07787598098491487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08002586229515049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7057676323246797 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288707.410729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288707.410729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9582189348648069, 0.04178106513519306 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 250, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have repeatedly claimed that they will not directly engage Russian forces. However, recent news have mentioned a possibility of escalation, including France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) mentioning that intervention [cannot be ruled out](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/). The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine. \n\nShould Russia expand its Ukraine war, possibly carrying it beyond the initial war goals of Eastern and Southern Ukraine, a direct conflict seems more plausible. Possible theaters of operation include Russia and Ukraine proper (in their internationally recognized borders), the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, the Baltic States, and Moldova (including Transnistria.)" }, { "id": 21546, "title": "Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?", "short_title": "“M/V Rubymar” Salvage Operation", "url_title": "“M/V Rubymar” Salvage Operation", "slug": "mv-rubymar-salvage-operation", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-27T22:10:43.585265Z", "published_at": "2024-02-28T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.929913Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-28T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-02T16:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-02T16:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-28T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21546, "title": "Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-02-27T22:10:43.585265Z", "open_time": "2024-02-28T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-02T15:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-02T15:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-02T16:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-02T16:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-02T16:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 19, 2024, Houthi rebels in Yemen struck the *M/V Rubymar* - a Belize-flagged, UK-registered, and Lebanese-operated open-hatch general cargo ship - with ballistic missiles whilst it was operating in the Gulf of Aden. The ship sustained major damage, however the crew managed to anchor the ship before [escaping](https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1759401808668070214?s=20) unharmed. The ship remains abandoned south of the Hanish Islands, which is around 50km from the coast of Yemen.\n\nThe United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) [reported](https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1761225931656704052?s=20) that an 18 mile oil slick had formed.\n\nWith the *Rubymar* filled with 41,000 tonnes of fertiliser (ammonia), as well as fuel, there has been speculation that if the vessel were to sink, that an environmental disaster could occur. \n\nYemen's internationally recognised government recently [requested](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2465881/middle-east) international assistance in preventing the release of the vessel's cargo.\n\nWith Houthi attacks ongoing in the region, there are serious security risks associated with a salvage operation. However, the Houthi’s may provide safe passage to salvage vessels since any environmental disaster would inevitably have an impact on the Houthi’s themselves. Indeed, any ceasefire in the ongoing [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war) may provide a window to safely commence operations.\n\nPreviously, on August 11, 2023, an [international salvage operation](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18102/safer-transfer-finished-in-19-days/) by Boskalis took place on the Safer - a Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel - which was anchored off the coast of Yemen and at risk of spilling over 1.1 million barrels of oil due to being in a state of disrepair largely due to the Yemen civil war.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, credible reports state that salvage operations have commenced on the *M/V Rubymar*.\n\nIf at any point prior to April 1, where no salvage operations have commenced, the vessel sinks, or releases more than 80% of its cargo, the question will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "Some examples of salvage operations are:\n\n- Draining of the ships cargo and/or fuel.\n\n- Towing back to port.\n\n- Retrofitting of buoyancy modules.\n\n- Repair of damages.\n\nThe salvage operations need not complete, but only commence.", "post_id": 21546, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709565239.04372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709565239.04372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.09106320019326358 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.344294119693779, 6.362057589534087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07787598098491487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04478739497884664, 0.812986479619698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008393071224214524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02368489080579067, 0.0, 0.05030905064265755, 0.015204078447885579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02713823006833058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0090705904541796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02381515030408827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.363643337661017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007454186295369823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03094679367520054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017494230548454617 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.2176300407747713, "coverage": 0.10057098706128885, "baseline_score": -3.281219262313943, "spot_peer_score": 31.69028869493092, "peer_archived_score": -0.2176300407747713, "baseline_archived_score": -3.281219262313943, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.69028869493092 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709395506.59162, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709395506.59162, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9651785201872535, 0.03482147981274653 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 19, 2024, Houthi rebels in Yemen struck the *M/V Rubymar* - a Belize-flagged, UK-registered, and Lebanese-operated open-hatch general cargo ship - with ballistic missiles whilst it was operating in the Gulf of Aden. The ship sustained major damage, however the crew managed to anchor the ship before [escaping](https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1759401808668070214?s=20) unharmed. The ship remains abandoned south of the Hanish Islands, which is around 50km from the coast of Yemen.\n\nThe United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) [reported](https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1761225931656704052?s=20) that an 18 mile oil slick had formed.\n\nWith the *Rubymar* filled with 41,000 tonnes of fertiliser (ammonia), as well as fuel, there has been speculation that if the vessel were to sink, that an environmental disaster could occur. \n\nYemen's internationally recognised government recently [requested](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2465881/middle-east) international assistance in preventing the release of the vessel's cargo.\n\nWith Houthi attacks ongoing in the region, there are serious security risks associated with a salvage operation. However, the Houthi’s may provide safe passage to salvage vessels since any environmental disaster would inevitably have an impact on the Houthi’s themselves. Indeed, any ceasefire in the ongoing [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war) may provide a window to safely commence operations.\n\nPreviously, on August 11, 2023, an [international salvage operation](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18102/safer-transfer-finished-in-19-days/) by Boskalis took place on the Safer - a Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel - which was anchored off the coast of Yemen and at risk of spilling over 1.1 million barrels of oil due to being in a state of disrepair largely due to the Yemen civil war." }, { "id": 21531, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?", "short_title": "Magnificent Seven bubble pops?", "url_title": "Magnificent Seven bubble pops?", "slug": "magnificent-seven-bubble-pops", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-24T18:27:47.450730Z", "published_at": "2024-03-06T15:06:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:13:39.029445Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-06T15:06:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-06T15:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21531, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-02-24T18:27:47.450730Z", "open_time": "2024-03-06T15:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-09T15:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-09T15:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if at any point between now and 1 Jan 2026 shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high. \n\nThe question shall be resolved by using the daily closing share prices available from Yahoo Finance under the 'historical data' tab or, at the discretion of Metaculus admins, any other credible source of share price data.\n\nWhatever data source is used should be adjusted for share splits, so that this question does *not* resolve positive just because a few of the Magnificent Seven decide to do a stock split (ie offer N new shares for each old share).", "fine_print": "In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example: \nIf Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.\n\nPositive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if *either* of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high. \n\nSo if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positive.", "post_id": 21531, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763165608.698318, "end_time": 1763693018.744, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763165608.698318, "end_time": 1763693018.744, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07459947949128735 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.70501275030972, 3.103881170426594, 2.162774578754476, 1.2572193469812303, 0.0, 0.46856104516422203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.028709986438327752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08908056275482781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5928733813562592 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289299.924941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289299.924941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9048355348981244, 0.0951644651018756 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 361, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow." }, { "id": 21493, "title": "Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?", "short_title": "Oscar wins of the Oppenheimer", "url_title": "Oscar wins of the Oppenheimer", "slug": "oscar-wins-of-the-oppenheimer", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-23T11:00:24.828237Z", "published_at": "2024-02-29T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.473271Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-29T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-10T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-10T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-29T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21493, "title": "Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?", "created_at": "2024-02-23T11:00:24.828237Z", "open_time": "2024-02-29T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-01T15:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-01T15:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-11T16:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-10T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-10T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [96th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/96th_Academy_Awards) ceremony is scheduled for 10 March 2024.\n\nCurrently Christopher Nolan's [Oppenheimer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film)) biopic has the most nominations (13) followed by [Poor Things](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poor_Things_(film)) (11) and [Killers of the Flower Moon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killers_of_the_Flower_Moon_(film)) (10)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to **Yes** if the official page of the [96th Academy Awards](https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2024) indicates that the Oppenheimer film has won more awards than any other film.\n\nIt resolves to **No** if there is a tie or another movie has the most awards.", "fine_print": "If the official Oscars page is inaccessible or there are reasons to believe its data are incorrect another resolution source may be used.", "post_id": 21493, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710060053.41533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710060053.41533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7203890793412728 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8541214223446619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6180230852299246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39399817220008165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819784916880439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007910310761167284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46771217623817773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0304716981994715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014898447896288268, 0.34376944389713826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7309837702274063, 0.689272497311861, 0.9487661894214374, 0.7051295673589886, 0.0032840439631166654, 0.50629457697437, 0.041232074872413094, 0.00038602352720193, 0.0, 0.291559861684036, 1.5344389496795872, 0.6625204088159753, 0.16226731465893307, 0.15316159227137646, 0.1986423036368186, 0.8999668826836468, 0.9707415388427354, 0.09910720287960686, 0.0, 0.3988722571079693, 2.509267851642389, 0.07979459557049519, 0.0, 0.8099105034576107, 0.0, 0.3254574973727966, 0.17948651977621094, 0.10773247982164638, 0.0, 0.6737146454272485 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.80549978805106, "coverage": 0.9997195434455014, "baseline_score": 62.595268228907976, "spot_peer_score": 5.7240921531089075, "peer_archived_score": 5.80549978805106, "baseline_archived_score": 62.595268228907976, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.7240921531089075 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710060053.472531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710060053.472531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.324939163472165, 0.675060836527835 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 175, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [96th Academy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/96th_Academy_Awards) ceremony is scheduled for 10 March 2024.\n\nCurrently Christopher Nolan's [Oppenheimer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oppenheimer_(film)) biopic has the most nominations (13) followed by [Poor Things](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poor_Things_(film)) (11) and [Killers of the Flower Moon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killers_of_the_Flower_Moon_(film)) (10)" } ] }
