Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3140
{ "count": 5977, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3160", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3120", "results": [ { "id": 18133, "title": "Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?", "short_title": "LK-99 Replication Try Before August 4, 2023?", "url_title": "LK-99 Replication Try Before August 4, 2023?", "slug": "lk-99-replication-try-before-august-4-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-28T19:51:10.301711Z", "published_at": "2023-07-29T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.434239Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-29T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T03:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-03T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T03:04:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-29T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 111, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18133, "title": "Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-28T19:51:10.301711Z", "open_time": "2023-07-29T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-29T15:10:53.602415Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-29T15:10:53.602415Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-03T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T03:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-01T03:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-03T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T03:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called [\"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.\n\n*Background information copied from [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/)*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before August 4, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a preprint or paper describing a complete replication attempt of the LK-99 results has been published. To be considered a complete replication attempt the paper must test the main findings of the original paper, including all of the following:\n\n* The synthesis of LK-99\n* Testing whether the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (127 C) โ the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting\n* Testing whether the resistance drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 ฮฉยทcm โ true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature\n\nThe results of the replication are irrelevant for the purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* To be considered a preprint or a paper for the purposes of this question the attempted replication must be complete and the methodology and results must be published in a manuscript accessible by the public.\n* Later retractions or claims questioning the veracity of the replication attempt will be irrelevant for the purposes of this question, it will resolve according to the first assessment made by Metaculus.\n* Metaculus may rely on reporting from credible sources to assess whether these criteria have been met, and for papers not published in English Metaculus may use credible reporting or machine translation as appropriate. In the event it is unclear whether a paper has met these requirements Metaculus will make a determination as to the appropriate resolution, including waiting for further confirmation, as needed, or may resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 18133, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690866182.462775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690866182.462775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5323231200039223 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3518036651303303, 0.7550282799560074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05980572861406049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008792191366882515, 0.0, 0.7086466834526424, 0.0, 0.07650168018741535, 0.027172461172235523, 0.0236217822833125, 0.24798860807767495, 0.0, 0.21373137041938572, 0.01769764244862202, 0.0, 0.6427010709991108, 0.1611814906125844, 0.05272603343263099, 0.33229019138276084, 0.0010953801287727689, 0.2641052515291398, 0.9548091858972665, 0.22553616108810334, 0.45632923417995364, 0.0, 0.2214014891401162, 0.17568192869408386, 0.03812750310025072, 0.0026914523047215848, 0.2645246477336361, 0.18745450173247874, 0.0, 0.01034082290967558, 0.09158350927890618, 0.0, 1.356236952668591, 0.0, 0.04072631967289526, 0.0021847845343716758, 0.0, 0.23967598995297798, 0.0, 0.08126580419860814, 0.0, 0.056168459797005146, 0.8765859639809341, 0.00011339842917678962, 0.8697272916366073, 0.0006409544199756206, 0.0012388791731117433, 0.7208018769604029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4720626250072921, 0.0, 0.0007383426461566485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004798613526973252, 0.0, 0.04946924327592166, 0.014281632080376331, 0.005253349196630287, 1.3996528875335583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.277591499430506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6865516204292617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.375035352623171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9773621370000798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3610658760156533, 0.0, 1.3428077147593482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35177712228870617 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.217724782792495, "coverage": 0.4806395455832936, "baseline_score": -27.53527316625638, "spot_peer_score": 107.64852210717821, "peer_archived_score": 4.217724782792495, "baseline_archived_score": -27.53527316625638, "spot_peer_archived_score": 107.64852210717821 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690857456.487784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690857456.487784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5577932832788502, 0.44220671672114975 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 242, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called [\"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.\n\n*Background information copied from [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/)*" }, { "id": 18110, "title": "Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?", "short_title": "Environmental war before 2073?", "url_title": "Environmental war before 2073?", "slug": "environmental-war-before-2073", "author_id": 151147, "author_username": "aaaa12", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-28T10:47:01.069648Z", "published_at": "2023-08-08T16:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T09:41:43.349905Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-08T16:59:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2072-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2073-07-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-08T16:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "๐", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "๐ฑ", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18110, "title": "Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?", "created_at": "2023-07-28T10:47:01.069648Z", "open_time": "2023-08-08T16:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-10T16:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-10T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2073-07-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2072-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2072-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 2023, the political gap between developed countries lead by the US and developing countries lead by China is growing. This gap is also seen in regard to compliance with environmental and climate change policies (pollution, deforestation, hunting etc). Will this [non-compliance](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/12/environment-fragility-and-conflict/) be cited as the primary cause of a war within the next 50 years?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 2073, at least two credible sources and one peer-reviewed academic paper attribute the cause of a war to non-compliance with climate change and environmental protection policies.", "fine_print": "The credible sources and academic paper must be about the same war.", "post_id": 18110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757670092.163647, "end_time": 1789175333.605, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757670092.163647, "end_time": 1789175333.605, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.39037517252883924 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04635449784492113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.3346306710954027, 0.33043163511098544, 0.7429155235659053, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.09369360910749297, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.4531953338080791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.15266220141285267, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289107.825172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289107.825172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9072465604413041, 0.09275343955869582 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 2023, the political gap between developed countries lead by the US and developing countries lead by China is growing. This gap is also seen in regard to compliance with environmental and climate change policies (pollution, deforestation, hunting etc). Will this [non-compliance](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/12/environment-fragility-and-conflict/) be cited as the primary cause of a war within the next 50 years?" }, { "id": 18107, "title": "Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?", "short_title": "Deflation before 2030?", "url_title": "Deflation before 2030?", "slug": "deflation-before-2030", "author_id": 129147, "author_username": "txmerritt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-27T14:51:43.068912Z", "published_at": "2023-08-04T04:09:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T22:00:52.810762Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-04T04:09:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-04T04:09:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18107, "title": "Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-07-27T14:51:43.068912Z", "open_time": "2023-08-04T04:09:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-06T04:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-06T04:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=17xbb&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>\n\nThe Federal Reserve recently implemented a series of aggressive interest rate hikes in response to economic conditions in the United States. [Ray Dalio]( https://time.com/6286449/ray-dalio-world-great-disorder/) a prominent investor and economic commentator, has proposed a theory that during severe and prolonged economic crises, there tends to be an oscillation between inflationary and deflationary periods. This question aims to assess the likelihood of the US experiencing a deflationary cycle within the timeframe of 2023 to 2030.\n\nDeflation can be [indirectly measured](https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2023/04/08/deflation-is-the-future/?sh=6e2bcd47216a) using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is a widely used metric that tracks the changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services typically consumed by households. It is a key indicator of inflation, which is the general increase in prices over time. Inflation and deflation are opposite phenomena, representing the rise and fall, respectively, in the overall price level of goods and services in an economy.\n\nWhen the CPI value declines over a sustained period, it [indicates deflation](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569874-deflation-and-slowing-growth-why-2023-will-see-both-continue). In other words, the purchasing power of money increases as prices decrease. This can be a concerning economic situation because deflation may lead to delayed consumer spending, reduced investment, and negative impacts on economic growth and employment.\n\nThe FED has been [aggressively raising the interest]( https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569874-deflation-and-slowing-growth-why-2023-will-see-both-continue) rates to cool inflation. However, [economists worry]( https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2022/7/6/weekly-comment-the-great-deflation-of-2023) about, the possibility of experiencing a sharp deflationary episode, a sort of whiplash effect, which would [force another about-turn]( https://www.timothyxmerritt.com/post/facing-the-unfathomable-government-strategies-for-dealing-with-a-greater-depression) for central banks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers [(CPI-U)]( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) meets any one of these three criteria (measured as end of period to end of period):\n\n- CPI Metric 1: Annual CPI Percentage Change: A deflationary period will be considered to have occurred if the year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for any given year between 2023 and 2030 is negative.\n\n- CPI Metric 2: CPI Quarterly Trend: A deflationary period will be considered to have occurred if there is a continuous decline in the CPI for three or more consecutive quarters during any period between 2023 and 2030.\n\n- CPI Metric 3: Cumulative CPI Change: A deflationary period will be considered to have occurred if there is a cumulative decline in the CPI of at least 2% over any period of two or more consecutive years between 2023 and 2030.", "fine_print": "It's important to note that while the CPI can be used as an indicator of deflation, it may not capture all aspects of the economy that can experience price changes. For a comprehensive assessment of deflation, other economic indicators and data, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI), wages, interest rates, and GDP growth, should also be considered to get a holistic view of the economic situation.\n\nThe resolution criteria outlined above are intended solely for the purposes of the Metaculus forecast and do not represent an exhaustive or comprehensive definition of deflation in economic theory or practice. Participants should consider that economic conditions and indicators are subject to change, and the resolution of this question may not perfectly align with real-world economic conditions.", "post_id": 18107, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758578441.979804, "end_time": 1760946474.520519, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758578441.979804, "end_time": 1760946474.520519, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.26159178636393643 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7265457652564309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3128639174279075, 0.10223706135307076, 0.11777121751898838, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.10978419210251206, 0.2501577142572954, 0.429306930151368, 0.17472138726266326, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07223042033187795, 0.0, 1.9047867451009917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287415.750463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287415.750463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8764280157806337, 0.12357198421936631 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=17xbb&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>\n\nThe Federal Reserve recently implemented a series of aggressive interest rate hikes in response to economic conditions in the United States. [Ray Dalio]( https://time.com/6286449/ray-dalio-world-great-disorder/) a prominent investor and economic commentator, has proposed a theory that during severe and prolonged economic crises, there tends to be an oscillation between inflationary and deflationary periods. This question aims to assess the likelihood of the US experiencing a deflationary cycle within the timeframe of 2023 to 2030.\n\nDeflation can be [indirectly measured](https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2023/04/08/deflation-is-the-future/?sh=6e2bcd47216a) using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is a widely used metric that tracks the changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services typically consumed by households. It is a key indicator of inflation, which is the general increase in prices over time. Inflation and deflation are opposite phenomena, representing the rise and fall, respectively, in the overall price level of goods and services in an economy.\n\nWhen the CPI value declines over a sustained period, it [indicates deflation](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569874-deflation-and-slowing-growth-why-2023-will-see-both-continue). In other words, the purchasing power of money increases as prices decrease. This can be a concerning economic situation because deflation may lead to delayed consumer spending, reduced investment, and negative impacts on economic growth and employment.\n\nThe FED has been [aggressively raising the interest]( https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569874-deflation-and-slowing-growth-why-2023-will-see-both-continue) rates to cool inflation. However, [economists worry]( https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2022/7/6/weekly-comment-the-great-deflation-of-2023) about, the possibility of experiencing a sharp deflationary episode, a sort of whiplash effect, which would [force another about-turn]( https://www.timothyxmerritt.com/post/facing-the-unfathomable-government-strategies-for-dealing-with-a-greater-depression) for central banks." }, { "id": 18102, "title": "Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?", "short_title": "Safer Transfer Finished in 19 Days?", "url_title": "Safer Transfer Finished in 19 Days?", "slug": "safer-transfer-finished-in-19-days", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-26T20:12:50.906451Z", "published_at": "2023-07-29T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.869014Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-29T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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"2023-07-29T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-29T17:54:48.039796Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-29T17:54:48.039796Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-13T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-11T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-13T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-11T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The oil storage vessel FSO Safer holds more than 1.1 million barrels of oil (four times that of Exxon Valdez), and has for the past few years been moored off the coast of Yemen. [An operation began on July 25th to remove the oil from the vessel:](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/un-oil-tanker-salvage-operation-begins-in-yemen-1.6916853) \n\n> An international team began siphoning oil out of a decrepit oil tanker off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday, the United Nations chief said, a crucial step in a complex salvage operation.\n\nHowever,\n> The vessel has not been maintained for eight years and its structural integrity is compromised, making it at risk of breaking up or exploding.\n\nAs of July 25, the oil is,\n\n> being moved to another vessel which had been purchased by the UN. The oil transfer came after months of on-site preparatory work and is scheduled to be completed in less than three weeks.\n\n[The United Nations (UN) says](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1139057) the transfer\n\n> will continue round-the-clock over the next 19 days.\n\nThis puts the estimated last date of transfer on August 13.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the oil transfer is completed before August 14, 2023. It resolves **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "* This question is concerned with reports about the transfer of oil being completed, cleaning residue from tanks and other follow-up operations are irrelevant for the purposes of this question.\n* This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are credible reports that the transfer has been completed, regardless of whether an oil leak or other disaster occurs.", "post_id": 18102, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691778841.332536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691778841.332536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.931040479788425 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3329886027126942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46979617729051704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017624230778577688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026668637948713955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007509578610630234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015317060478821994, 0.00036646777991410795, 0.4440181252868051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009137994324451541, 0.0015760241141014868, 0.10840936769172026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0049050175151399145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0635122425565706, 0.02048244170540977, 0.09763871499621768, 0.1501736291858285, 1.1660682076633428, 2.1326895840607922, 0.44186800381103175, 1.994419288469858, 3.0957752174307753, 6.263376314056592 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.389181138535717, "coverage": 0.8786324974421599, "baseline_score": 64.12279768943546, "spot_peer_score": 38.1201812059184, "peer_archived_score": 4.389181138535717, "baseline_archived_score": 64.12279768943546, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.1201812059184 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691757009.874443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691757009.874443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.053040686416187754, 0.9469593135838122 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 391, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The oil storage vessel FSO Safer holds more than 1.1 million barrels of oil (four times that of Exxon Valdez), and has for the past few years been moored off the coast of Yemen. [An operation began on July 25th to remove the oil from the vessel:](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/un-oil-tanker-salvage-operation-begins-in-yemen-1.6916853) \n\n> An international team began siphoning oil out of a decrepit oil tanker off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday, the United Nations chief said, a crucial step in a complex salvage operation.\n\nHowever,\n> The vessel has not been maintained for eight years and its structural integrity is compromised, making it at risk of breaking up or exploding.\n\nAs of July 25, the oil is,\n\n> being moved to another vessel which had been purchased by the UN. The oil transfer came after months of on-site preparatory work and is scheduled to be completed in less than three weeks.\n\n[The United Nations (UN) says](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1139057) the transfer\n\n> will continue round-the-clock over the next 19 days.\n\nThis puts the estimated last date of transfer on August 13." }, { "id": 18098, "title": "Bude mezi srpnem 2023 a srpnem 2025 alespoล v jednom mฤsรญci ฤeskรฝm statistickรฝm รบลadem evidovรกno pozitivnรญ saldo indikรกtoru dลฏvฤry spotลebitelลฏ?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "bude-mezi-srpnem-2023-a-srpnem-2025-alespon-v-jednom-mesici-ceskym-statistickym-uradem-evidovano-pozitivni-saldo-indikatoru-duvery-spotrebitelu", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ฤP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-26T16:19:56.240953Z", "published_at": "2023-07-26T16:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.689677Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-26T16:32:45.970822Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-26T16:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odbornรฝ predikฤnรญ tรฝm", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ฤP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odbornรฝ predikฤnรญ tรฝm", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ฤP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 18098, "title": "Bude mezi srpnem 2023 a srpnem 2025 alespoล v jednom mฤsรญci ฤeskรฝm statistickรฝm รบลadem evidovรกno pozitivnรญ saldo indikรกtoru dลฏvฤry spotลebitelลฏ?", "created_at": "2023-07-26T16:19:56.240953Z", "open_time": "2023-07-26T16:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-28T16:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-28T16:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ล irokรฝ pลehled o vnรญmรกnรญ ekonomickรฉ situace obyvateli poskytujรญ konjunkturรกlnรญ prลฏzkumy, kterรฉ ฤSร provรกdรญ s mฤsรญฤnรญ frekvencรญ. 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R. Martin publish the sixth novel in \"A Song of Ice and Fire\" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in \"The Kingkiller Chronicle\"?", "created_at": "2023-07-26T15:14:28.850879Z", "open_time": "2023-08-01T16:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-03T16:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-03T16:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*The Kingkiller Chronicle* and *A Song of Ice and Fire* are considered two of the [best epic fantasy fiction series](https://www.goodreads.com/list/show/50.The_Best_Epic_Fantasy_fiction_) of all time.\n\nThe most recent books in each series were published in 2011, leaving their fans expecting new volume (or news of it) for over 12 years. \n\nAs of July 2023 [neither](https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2023/05/22/a-new-patrick-rothfuss-kingkiller-chronicles-book--is-coming-out-this-year/?sh=2443fa0e1561) George R.R. Martin's \"[The Winds of Winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter)\" nor Patrick Rothfuss's \"[The Doors of Stone](https://kingkiller.fandom.com/wiki/The_Doors_of_Stone)\" have an official publication date, despite many tentative deadlines the authors have given during the years.\n\nWho will publish first?", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if *The Winds of Winter* by [George R.R. Martin](https://georgerrmartin.com/) is published and available for purchase before *The Doors of Stone* by [Patrick Rothfuss](https://patrickrothfuss.com/). The information source is publication houses' statements corroborated by credible reports.\n\nThe books in question are the next volumes in the series *[A Song of Ice and Fire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire)* (by George R.R. Martin) and *[The Kingkiller Chronicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Kingkiller_Chronicle)* (by Patrick Rothfuss). This question concerns the next volume of these series, regardless if either author decides to change the planned title.", "fine_print": "By \"next volume\" is meant a book that continues the main story line of the series. Any potential books that introduce a side story line or deal with minor past events of the series will not be regarded as such continuation. For instance, Rothfuss's [announced novella](https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2023/05/22/a-new-patrick-rothfuss-kingkiller-chronicles-book--is-coming-out-this-year/?sh=5e853e5e1561) which takes place in the Kingkiller Chronicle's universe will not resolve the question, as it it not a continuation of *The Kingkiller Chronicle*.\n\nIf neither of the books is published before January 1, 2031, this question is annulled.", "post_id": 18092, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756559153.930251, "end_time": 1761139103.897017, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756559153.930251, "end_time": 1761139103.897017, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.3222314700214467 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2115251336989945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.6132274672564839, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 1.2013200813801155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.7915928904485878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289479.930659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289479.930659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7957658308012396, 0.20423416919876033 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*The Kingkiller Chronicle* and *A Song of Ice and Fire* are considered two of the [best epic fantasy fiction series](https://www.goodreads.com/list/show/50.The_Best_Epic_Fantasy_fiction_) of all time.\n\nThe most recent books in each series were published in 2011, leaving their fans expecting new volume (or news of it) for over 12 years. \n\nAs of July 2023 [neither](https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2023/05/22/a-new-patrick-rothfuss-kingkiller-chronicles-book--is-coming-out-this-year/?sh=2443fa0e1561) George R.R. Martin's \"[The Winds of Winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter)\" nor Patrick Rothfuss's \"[The Doors of Stone](https://kingkiller.fandom.com/wiki/The_Doors_of_Stone)\" have an official publication date, despite many tentative deadlines the authors have given during the years.\n\nWho will publish first?" }, { "id": 18090, "title": "Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?", "short_title": "Room-temp Superconductor Pre-print Replicated", "url_title": "Room-temp Superconductor Pre-print Replicated", "slug": "room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-26T13:12:41.041087Z", "published_at": "2023-07-26T20:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.451463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-26T20:45:00Z", "comment_count": 98, "status": 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"start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T04:41:54.560706Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18090, "title": "Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?", "created_at": "2023-07-26T13:12:41.041087Z", "open_time": "2023-07-26T20:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-26T21:44:15.135611Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-26T21:44:15.135611Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T04:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-01T04:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T04:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called [\"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if the first attempted replication of the superconductivity of LK-99 that is published (pre-print acceptable) confirms the main findings. The replication must be conducted by researchers at institution(s) independent from the authors of the original study.\n\nA confirmatory replication would have to include the following:\n\n* Reproduction of the synthesis of LK-99 \n\n* Confirmation that the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (126.85C) โ the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting \n\n* Confirmation that the resistivity drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 ฮฉยทcm โ true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature\n\nTo be considered an attempted replication the research must attempt to replicate all of the above, or demonstrate that one or more of these claims is false through independent testing.", "fine_print": "* Resolves ambiguous if there are no credible reports of an attempted replication before July 1, 2024\n* If the pre-print is withdrawn from arxiv and a new version of this paper, by one or more of the original authors and which satisfies these resolution criteria, is not published before July 1, 2024, and no independent replication has been performed before July 1, 2024, this question will resolve as **NO**. A new version of the original paper, as described, will not be considered to be a replication. If the paper is withdrawn and then the first independent replication is published before a new version of the paper is published, this question will resolve according to the results of the independent replication.\n* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether a replication satisfies these criteria and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear", "post_id": 18090, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690864837.45012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 417, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690864837.45012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 417, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.19725810165126895 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.396854992721965, 4.78604739621222, 2.0164611009357727, 1.6354381901683466, 1.9777322140828486, 2.875161893763509, 0.18178704161309292, 1.058098819244115, 1.552599096705627, 0.6410713454769581, 2.6193469451358147, 0.3177034202667809, 0.3542203346546422, 0.5442454482729999, 1.2456334167930863, 2.5732959447217225, 0.24273780078738438, 0.012443309834191892, 0.0055774051092562175, 1.0163729137156228, 0.9747374975892104, 0.03678732566288799, 0.08904305280336823, 0.08406101661944917, 0.009353448559855726, 1.0466677328141922, 0.00043856964766306086, 0.23529578524931252, 0.7457884814764397, 0.0, 0.0028880633238127533, 0.0, 0.06026112078264744, 0.025361824249573516, 0.0, 0.7031069902247571, 0.23789867053365243, 2.406678244237412e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06946642653670136, 0.0, 3.337367682370567e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902188220478758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0844715333520991, 0.6121934924862898, 3.634191391538339e-05, 0.0, 0.3663778805382367, 1.3139190014971551, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6254882346665478, 0.0001380333463208241, 3.129581826023071e-06, 3.2931763227280774e-05, 0.01852005404619754, 0.4165476270521003, 5.0936841033658794e-05, 0.0, 0.00031869979499049887, 0.0, 0.7633698220895865, 1.7097738834062488e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0768342165855627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08174881480537512, 0.0, 0.24157827213824495, 0.02579632491329619, 0.00685771103670956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0324963339877507, 0.0, 4.6304502853224774e-05, 0.0, 4.856341968731319e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8157475929678542e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 8.103917674813437e-05, 0.41207303672716944 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.6347361905235457, "coverage": 0.01566101218255465, "baseline_score": 1.2528730697472643, "spot_peer_score": 26.69723278566849, "peer_archived_score": 0.6347361905235457, "baseline_archived_score": 1.2528730697472643, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.69723278566849 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690864837.490355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 417, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690864837.490355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 417, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9406097178970536, 0.059390282102946425 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 53, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 989, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called [\"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated." }, { "id": 18075, "title": "Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?", "short_title": "Shocking UAP Explanation by July 2028?", "url_title": "Shocking UAP Explanation by July 2028?", "slug": "shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-25T22:28:55.570781Z", "published_at": "2023-08-02T04:07:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:07:32.261702Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-02T04:07:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-07-21T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-22T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-02T04:07:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18075, "title": "Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?", "created_at": "2023-07-25T22:28:55.570781Z", "open_time": "2023-08-02T04:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-04T01:13:09.510914Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-04T01:13:09.510914Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-22T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-07-21T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-07-21T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In July 2023, the US House of Representatives will hold a [hearing](https://www.space.com/ufos-congress-hearing-livestream-july-2023) related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP).\n\n> The hearing will be held by the House's Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs and will include testimony from former U.S. military and intelligence community personnel who claim to have come in contact with craft that defy physics and known flight capabilities or have even seen evidence of \"non-human intelligence.\"\n\nThe hearing follows an [official, inconclusive report](https://www.intelligence.gov/index.php/publics-daily-brief/public-s-daily-brief-articles/1077-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-preliminary-intelligence-assessment) on Unidentified Ariel Phenomena submitted to Congress by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in 2021. It comes in the context of the recently-proposed [UAP Disclosure Act of 2023](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8JXv9ADBGuDzFL4EZ/the-uap-disclosure-act-of-2023-and-its-implications).\n\nOn LessWrong, a thread titled [UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up) gathered 200 upvotes and over 160 comments, with multiple LessWrong users betting the UAPs will ultimately have a prosaic explanation. Most prominently, Eliezer Yudkowsky [bet](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/?commentId=rsKjPAPqeFwQuNibD) $150,000, to win $1,000, that UAPs have a prosaic explanation that is not ontologically-shocking.\n\nThis question resolves based on the outcomes of those bets. Here are the resolution criteria agreed upon by LessWrong users who made these wagers:\n\n>Two Worlds: All-ufos-are-ultimately-prosaic, and Not-all-ufos-are-ultimately-prosaic. I win the bet if we come to believe we likely live in the latter world. I win the bet if the ufo story ultimately gives us LW's a significant ontological shock. I win the bet if the ufo story ultimately causes the LW community to stop, melt, and catch fire. I've found it difficult to precisely nail down how to phrase this, so I hope its clear what kind of criteria I'm trying to get at.\n\n> Examples of things where if we come to believe at least one of them likely explain >0 ufo/uap cases, then I win the bet:\n\n> - Aliens / Extraterrestrials\n - Biological\n - Machines (Von Neumann probes, for instance)\n - Actual magic/spiritual/paranormal/psychic phenomenon\n - This explicitly does NOT include merely advanced \"mentalist\" type things / show magic ie, things like ESP, astral projection, demons, god(s), angels, ghosts, remote viewing, fairy's (actually anomalous, not just new kind of bird), etc. Basically, the kinds of things that standard atheist materialists would reject as not being real.\n - Time travel, ie, future human activities (or otherwise)\n- Leftovers of an ancient civilization \n- Some other unknown non-human advanced civilization on earth\n- Matrix Glitches / The simulators have a sense of humor\n- Some other explanation I'm missing that's of a similar level of \"very weird\"\n- Merely advanced \"normal\" human tech would NOT count (+2 gens stealth aircraft/drones, advanced holograms/spoofing, etc). What WOULD count is if the story is significantly weird enough to cause ontological shock. example: Secret Manhattan style project with beyond next gen physics, that we had back in the 60's\n\n> Important Note: The bet resolve in my favor if we think that one of the \"weird hypotheses\" is likely (>50%) true, NOT that we are confident in which specific explanation is true. Essentially, the bet resolves in my favor if we agree with the statement: \"Whatever these most perplexing ufo/uap cases represent, they are likely something beyond our current paradigm\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if any of the following occur before July 22, 2028:\n\n- [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliezer_Yudkowsky) concedes his [bet](https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1682446903953457152) that UAPs do not have a worldview-shattering origin, or;\n- At least three LessWrong users who have made [similar bets](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up) concede that not all UAPs are ultimately prosaic.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18075, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758492441.4879, "end_time": 1759446245.503457, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758492441.4879, "end_time": 1759446245.503457, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.04018895013265044 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.401780965747507, 2.686801679365921, 0.009167091186681414, 0.23434107129204243, 0.14540923080948767, 0.8677177863616623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6902063238793004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053493066571363594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27472403987004174 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287055.791882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287055.791882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9873526122979799, 0.01264738770202016 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 221, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In July 2023, the US House of Representatives will hold a [hearing](https://www.space.com/ufos-congress-hearing-livestream-july-2023) related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP).\n\n> The hearing will be held by the House's Subcommittee on National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs and will include testimony from former U.S. military and intelligence community personnel who claim to have come in contact with craft that defy physics and known flight capabilities or have even seen evidence of \"non-human intelligence.\"\n\nThe hearing follows an [official, inconclusive report](https://www.intelligence.gov/index.php/publics-daily-brief/public-s-daily-brief-articles/1077-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-preliminary-intelligence-assessment) on Unidentified Ariel Phenomena submitted to Congress by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence in 2021. It comes in the context of the recently-proposed [UAP Disclosure Act of 2023](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8JXv9ADBGuDzFL4EZ/the-uap-disclosure-act-of-2023-and-its-implications).\n\nOn LessWrong, a thread titled [UFO Betting: Put Up or Shut Up](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/ufo-betting-put-up-or-shut-up) gathered 200 upvotes and over 160 comments, with multiple LessWrong users betting the UAPs will ultimately have a prosaic explanation. Most prominently, Eliezer Yudkowsky [bet](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t5W87hQF5gKyTofQB/?commentId=rsKjPAPqeFwQuNibD) $150,000, to win $1,000, that UAPs have a prosaic explanation that is not ontologically-shocking.\n\nThis question resolves based on the outcomes of those bets. Here are the resolution criteria agreed upon by LessWrong users who made these wagers:\n\n>Two Worlds: All-ufos-are-ultimately-prosaic, and Not-all-ufos-are-ultimately-prosaic. I win the bet if we come to believe we likely live in the latter world. I win the bet if the ufo story ultimately gives us LW's a significant ontological shock. I win the bet if the ufo story ultimately causes the LW community to stop, melt, and catch fire. I've found it difficult to precisely nail down how to phrase this, so I hope its clear what kind of criteria I'm trying to get at.\n\n> Examples of things where if we come to believe at least one of them likely explain >0 ufo/uap cases, then I win the bet:\n\n> - Aliens / Extraterrestrials\n - Biological\n - Machines (Von Neumann probes, for instance)\n - Actual magic/spiritual/paranormal/psychic phenomenon\n - This explicitly does NOT include merely advanced \"mentalist\" type things / show magic ie, things like ESP, astral projection, demons, god(s), angels, ghosts, remote viewing, fairy's (actually anomalous, not just new kind of bird), etc. Basically, the kinds of things that standard atheist materialists would reject as not being real.\n - Time travel, ie, future human activities (or otherwise)\n- Leftovers of an ancient civilization \n- Some other unknown non-human advanced civilization on earth\n- Matrix Glitches / The simulators have a sense of humor\n- Some other explanation I'm missing that's of a similar level of \"very weird\"\n- Merely advanced \"normal\" human tech would NOT count (+2 gens stealth aircraft/drones, advanced holograms/spoofing, etc). What WOULD count is if the story is significantly weird enough to cause ontological shock. example: Secret Manhattan style project with beyond next gen physics, that we had back in the 60's\n\n> Important Note: The bet resolve in my favor if we think that one of the \"weird hypotheses\" is likely (>50%) true, NOT that we are confident in which specific explanation is true. Essentially, the bet resolves in my favor if we agree with the statement: \"Whatever these most perplexing ufo/uap cases represent, they are likely something beyond our current paradigm\"" }, { "id": 18070, "title": "Will Harvard University announce an end to preferential legacy admissions before 2030?", "short_title": "Harvard Ends Legacy Admissions by 2030?", "url_title": "Harvard Ends Legacy Admissions by 2030?", "slug": "harvard-ends-legacy-admissions-by-2030", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113641, "username": "gomaill2" } ], "created_at": "2023-07-25T21:34:36.835098Z", "published_at": "2023-07-31T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T21:28:49.510187Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-31T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-31T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18070, "title": "Will Harvard University announce an end to preferential legacy admissions before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-07-25T21:34:36.835098Z", "open_time": "2023-07-31T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-02T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-02T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Harvard Universityโs legacy admissions policy has recently come under scrutiny, with the US Department of Education [opening](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/25/us/politics/harvard-admissions-civil-rights-inquiry.html) a civil rights inquiry into the practice. \n\n[Legacy admissions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legacy_preferences), also known as legacy preferences, benefit students who have a familial relationship to an alumni of a college or university. Harvard [considers](https://admissionsight.com/what-percentage-of-harvard-students-are-legacy/) an applicant a legacy applicant if at least one parent graduated from Harvard or Radcliffe. \n\nThe acceptance rate for legacy students at Harvard is [up to seven times higher](https://apnews.com/article/legacy-admissions-harvard-affirmative-action-diversity-24321f3814d5feec6d380d18c8b6c2e1) than the rate for other students, and legacy applicants make up as much as 1/3 of the incoming class. \n\nThe Supreme Court recently [ruled](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/20-1199_hgdj.pdf) that Harvard's affirmative action admissions policy was unconstitutional, leading activists to [challenge](https://www.npr.org/2023/07/03/1185911470/affirmative-action-supreme-court-ruling-legacy-admissions-harvard) the legacy policy.\n\nSome selective schools have voluntarily given up legacy admissions, including recently [Wesleyan University](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/us/wesleyan-university-ends-legacy-admissions.html#:~:text=Wesleyan%20University%2C%20a%20liberal%20arts,Court%20struck%20down%20affirmative%20action.) in Connecticut.\n\nA recent [study by Harvard economists](https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CollegeAdmissions_Paper.pdf) found that very wealthy applicants have [significant advantages](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/24/metro/research-harvard-economists-confirms-elite-colleges-favor-wealthy-students/) in the admissions process at elite institutions, including Harvard.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, Harvard University announces an end to preferential treatment for legacy applicants for future undergraduate classes.", "fine_print": "The announcement must be a definitive statement indicating that the preference will be fully eliminated by some specific time, rather than something like \"We plan to ultimately do this\" or \"It is our ambition to eliminate the legacy preference\" without committing to do so by any particular date.", "post_id": 18070, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758490119.208924, "end_time": 1759504668.662064, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.408 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758490119.208924, "end_time": 1759504668.662064, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.408 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5920000000000001, 0.408 ], "means": [ 0.43102201772590915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7971488092204659, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.8683016565719828, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6927103952880904, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.49114657277086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289133.425829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289133.425829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7362177174714524, 0.2637822825285477 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Harvard Universityโs legacy admissions policy has recently come under scrutiny, with the US Department of Education [opening](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/25/us/politics/harvard-admissions-civil-rights-inquiry.html) a civil rights inquiry into the practice. \n\n[Legacy admissions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legacy_preferences), also known as legacy preferences, benefit students who have a familial relationship to an alumni of a college or university. Harvard [considers](https://admissionsight.com/what-percentage-of-harvard-students-are-legacy/) an applicant a legacy applicant if at least one parent graduated from Harvard or Radcliffe. \n\nThe acceptance rate for legacy students at Harvard is [up to seven times higher](https://apnews.com/article/legacy-admissions-harvard-affirmative-action-diversity-24321f3814d5feec6d380d18c8b6c2e1) than the rate for other students, and legacy applicants make up as much as 1/3 of the incoming class. \n\nThe Supreme Court recently [ruled](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/20-1199_hgdj.pdf) that Harvard's affirmative action admissions policy was unconstitutional, leading activists to [challenge](https://www.npr.org/2023/07/03/1185911470/affirmative-action-supreme-court-ruling-legacy-admissions-harvard) the legacy policy.\n\nSome selective schools have voluntarily given up legacy admissions, including recently [Wesleyan University](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/us/wesleyan-university-ends-legacy-admissions.html#:~:text=Wesleyan%20University%2C%20a%20liberal%20arts,Court%20struck%20down%20affirmative%20action.) in Connecticut.\n\nA recent [study by Harvard economists](https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/CollegeAdmissions_Paper.pdf) found that very wealthy applicants have [significant advantages](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/24/metro/research-harvard-economists-confirms-elite-colleges-favor-wealthy-students/) in the admissions process at elite institutions, including Harvard." }, { "id": 18069, "title": "Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?", "short_title": "Sep 2023 Lowest Antarctic Sea Ice in History?", "url_title": "Sep 2023 Lowest Antarctic Sea Ice in History?", "slug": "sep-2023-lowest-antarctic-sea-ice-in-history", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-25T20:49:32.465583Z", "published_at": "2023-07-31T21:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.778835Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-31T21:19:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T15:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T15:33:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-31T21:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 188, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "๐", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18069, "title": "Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?", "created_at": "2023-07-25T20:49:32.465583Z", "open_time": "2023-07-31T21:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-30T21:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-30T21:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T15:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T15:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-01T15:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Antarctic sea ice is a [vital component](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-climate-antarctic-sea-ice-extent) of the Earth's climate system.\n\nThe 2023 Antarctic sea ice season set a [record low](https://nsidc.org/news-analyses/news-stories/antarctic-sea-ice-settles-record-low-2023) in 2023, with the minimum sea ice extent for the year measuring 136,000 square kilometers less than the previous record low set in 2022. \n\nSeptember usually represents the [maximum](https://nsidc.org/learn/ask-scientist/how-does-antarctic-sea-ice-differ-arctic-sea-ice) for Antarctic sea ice, which on typically covers an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent. \n\nHowever, the sea ice level in 2023 is at [historic lows](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-early-winter-record-low-june-2023#:~:text=In%20the%20midst%20of%20its,as%20of%20June%2027%2C%202023.).\n\n> After reaching a record-low summer minimum earlier this year, Antarctic sea ice continues to break records. In the midst of its winter growth phase, it has reached a record-low extent, far below the previous record, for this time of year.\n\n> Data archived by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) record Antarctic sea ice extent at 4.5 million square miles (11.7 million square kilometers) as of June 27, 2023. Thatโs nearly a million square miles (2.6 million square kilometers) below the 1981โ2010 average, and approaching a half a million square miles (1.2 million square kilometers) below the previous lowest extent for the day, observed in 2022.\n\n<img src=\"https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/embedded_gif_full_width/public/2023-06/Antarctic_dailyseaice_1979-27Jun.png?itok=wDWIeB70\" alt=\"Antarctic daily sea ice\" />\n\n<img src=\"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F10efmhaUAA2dKA?format=jpg&name=medium\" alt=\"Daily Standard Deviation of Antarctic Sea Ice\" />", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves based on the [Antarctic Sea Ice Extent](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) reported by the [National Snow & Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/home).\n\nThe question resolves **Yes** if the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is less on every single day from September 1st, 2023 to September 30th, 2023 compared to the same dates in all years since satellite tracking started in 1979.\n\nThe question immediately resolves **No** if the extent of Antarctic Sea Ice for any date between September 1, 2023 and September 30, 2023 exceeds the extent for the same day in any year between 1979 and 2022.", "fine_print": "Forecasters exploring the data from the resolution source should be sure to switch the sea ice extent to \"Antarctic.\"", "post_id": 18069, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696094913.199216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696094913.199216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.8982570208807108 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00024210370424372144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5301409469338518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.703880579564693, "coverage": 0.9999893048365989, "baseline_score": 89.67879488949357, "spot_peer_score": 25.830492573301928, "peer_archived_score": 19.703880579564693, "baseline_archived_score": 89.67879488949357, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.830492573301928 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696094913.240452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696094913.240452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03387531646909825, 0.9661246835309018 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 989, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Antarctic sea ice is a [vital component](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/understanding-climate-antarctic-sea-ice-extent) of the Earth's climate system.\n\nThe 2023 Antarctic sea ice season set a [record low](https://nsidc.org/news-analyses/news-stories/antarctic-sea-ice-settles-record-low-2023) in 2023, with the minimum sea ice extent for the year measuring 136,000 square kilometers less than the previous record low set in 2022. \n\nSeptember usually represents the [maximum](https://nsidc.org/learn/ask-scientist/how-does-antarctic-sea-ice-differ-arctic-sea-ice) for Antarctic sea ice, which on typically covers an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent. \n\nHowever, the sea ice level in 2023 is at [historic lows](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-early-winter-record-low-june-2023#:~:text=In%20the%20midst%20of%20its,as%20of%20June%2027%2C%202023.).\n\n> After reaching a record-low summer minimum earlier this year, Antarctic sea ice continues to break records. In the midst of its winter growth phase, it has reached a record-low extent, far below the previous record, for this time of year.\n\n> Data archived by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) record Antarctic sea ice extent at 4.5 million square miles (11.7 million square kilometers) as of June 27, 2023. Thatโs nearly a million square miles (2.6 million square kilometers) below the 1981โ2010 average, and approaching a half a million square miles (1.2 million square kilometers) below the previous lowest extent for the day, observed in 2022.\n\n<img src=\"https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/embedded_gif_full_width/public/2023-06/Antarctic_dailyseaice_1979-27Jun.png?itok=wDWIeB70\" alt=\"Antarctic daily sea ice\" />\n\n<img src=\"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F10efmhaUAA2dKA?format=jpg&name=medium\" alt=\"Daily Standard Deviation of Antarctic Sea Ice\" />" }, { "id": 18068, "title": "Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Threads Desktop App Before October 1, 2023?", "url_title": "Threads Desktop App Before October 1, 2023?", "slug": "threads-desktop-app-before-october-1-2023", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-25T20:27:09.625250Z", "published_at": "2023-07-29T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.581649Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-29T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-24T17:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-24T17:14:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-29T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 168, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18068, "title": "Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-25T20:27:09.625250Z", "open_time": "2023-07-29T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-29T17:40:08.560306Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-29T17:40:08.560306Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-24T17:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-24T17:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-24T17:14:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mark Zuckerberg launched a twitter competitor, Threads, on July 5, 2023. On the first day after launch, Zuckerberg [claimed](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-06/millions-sign-up-to-meta-twitter-rival-app-threads-in-hours/102572568) 30 million users signed up.\n\nThreads launched on [Android](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.instagram.barcelona&hl=en_US&gl=US) and [iOS](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/threads-an-instagram-app/id6446901002) under the name \"Threads, an Instagram App\". As of July 25, there is no way to access Threads content without using iOS, Android, or an emulator of one of those on another operating system.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before October 1, 2023 Meta makes available a website to access and post Threads content.", "fine_print": "The website must be generally available to users of desktop computers using typical web browsers. Requiring emulation of Android or iOS doesn't qualify. The website must be an official Meta website, not a third party with a way of accessing Android or iOS content. The website must be distinctly for Threads, it isn't sufficient if Threads content becomes available from another existing Meta web property like facebook.com or instagram.com.", "post_id": 18068, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692899413.050693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.991 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692899413.050693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.991 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9499088373916346 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0022298369864812684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28456844166756834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0071268258109922706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.905611898075179e-05, 6.3854959528354555e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3277620764762705e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020564782453716168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.47577867155193e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03623134554386934, 0.0019733249252695453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024373651764544725, 0.0, 0.0012409762042307707, 0.000615105331564898, 0.0, 0.0012107885972228727, 0.9248454452212814, 0.00011295759777424622, 0.0007340607623537877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002950888705475506, 0.0003151373724306775, 0.0005124452972707393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009819978089593704, 0.00012825611473354196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009571267775900839, 5.549577109245445e-05, 0.0002558125426489004, 0.0, 0.005090721810490461, 0.6022293992633116, 0.016228593297809367, 0.000800295517228824, 0.0, 0.7917106178345271, 0.049567206309924394, 0.02245302327317597, 0.03474452104802718, 0.006423425841771883, 0.0, 0.4085101840204999, 0.009201145807527409, 0.1661630840106096, 0.010723350520276304, 0.0851988872446943, 0.19215970191315832, 0.8060449013681537, 0.984385266073484, 0.900394750472501, 18.0554404967225 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.993276199187745, "coverage": 0.4130081391272939, "baseline_score": 31.181257651433373, "spot_peer_score": 37.53322345678835, "peer_archived_score": 8.993276199187745, "baseline_archived_score": 31.181257651433373, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.53322345678835 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692866091.033136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692866091.033136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.016694937950652022, 0.983305062049348 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 541, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mark Zuckerberg launched a twitter competitor, Threads, on July 5, 2023. On the first day after launch, Zuckerberg [claimed](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-06/millions-sign-up-to-meta-twitter-rival-app-threads-in-hours/102572568) 30 million users signed up.\n\nThreads launched on [Android](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.instagram.barcelona&hl=en_US&gl=US) and [iOS](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/threads-an-instagram-app/id6446901002) under the name \"Threads, an Instagram App\". As of July 25, there is no way to access Threads content without using iOS, Android, or an emulator of one of those on another operating system." }, { "id": 18067, "title": "Will the United States Congress pass a Gold Standards Resolution Act similar in essence to H.R. 2435 before the end of 2030?", "short_title": "Gold Standards Resolution Act before 2031?", "url_title": "Gold Standards Resolution Act before 2031?", "slug": "gold-standards-resolution-act-before-2031", "author_id": 129147, "author_username": "txmerritt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-25T14:17:25.405233Z", "published_at": "2023-08-03T04:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.391452Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-03T04:14:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-03T04:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18067, "title": "Will the United States Congress pass a Gold Standards Resolution Act similar in essence to H.R. 2435 before the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2023-07-25T14:17:25.405233Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T04:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-05T04:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-05T04:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 30, 2023, [H.R.2435, titled the Gold Standard Restoration Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2435) was introduced in the US House of Representatives. According to the congress.gov bill summary:\n\n>This bill requires the Department of the Treasury to define the Federal Reserve note dollar in terms of a fixed weight of gold, based on that day's closing market price of gold. Federal Reserve Banks must exchange Federal Reserve notes with gold at this price and create processes to facilitate exchanges between banks and the public. If a Federal Reserve Bank does not do this, Treasury must make any exchange and place a corresponding lien on the assets of that bank.\n>\n>In addition, Treasury and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve must report on U.S. gold holdings.\n\nThe [gold standard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard) is a system under which a country's currency is backed by and exchangeable for gold. [According to CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/29/is-it-really-time-for-a-return-of-the-gold-standard.html), referring to the end of the gold standard in the United States:\n\n>It was the Richard Nixon administration that completely severed the link between gold and the dollar in the early 1970s โ even after the gold standard was ditched in 1930s, foreign government were still allowed to exchange the greenback for bullion. Fixed amounts of gold were directly convertible to the U.S. dollar and vice versa. This meant the money supply was theoretically limited by the amount of gold backing it and exchange rates were based on the difference in price for an ounce of gold in different currencies.\n\nSome politicians and pundits [have advocated](https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/29/is-it-really-time-for-a-return-of-the-gold-standard.html) for the US to return to the gold standard.", "resolution_criteria": "Congressional Approval: The question will resolve โYesโ if the United States Congress passes a Gold Standards Resolution Act or any substantially similar legislation related to reintroducing a gold standard for the U.S. dollar before December 31st, 2030.", "fine_print": "Legislative Documentation: The resolution will require the passage of a specific bill that is deemed to facilitate the repegging of the Federal Reserve note to a fixed weight of gold bullion. This bill must be officially recognized as a step towards returning to a gold standard.", "post_id": 18067, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756789350.501104, "end_time": 1761252979.858286, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.044 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756789350.501104, "end_time": 1761252979.858286, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.044 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03910295613089735 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.0335686570336318, 1.9897875151313114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8552049875593888, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289149.321346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289149.321346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9980974217833084, 0.0019025782166916074 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 30, 2023, [H.R.2435, titled the Gold Standard Restoration Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2435) was introduced in the US House of Representatives. According to the congress.gov bill summary:\n\n>This bill requires the Department of the Treasury to define the Federal Reserve note dollar in terms of a fixed weight of gold, based on that day's closing market price of gold. Federal Reserve Banks must exchange Federal Reserve notes with gold at this price and create processes to facilitate exchanges between banks and the public. If a Federal Reserve Bank does not do this, Treasury must make any exchange and place a corresponding lien on the assets of that bank.\n>\n>In addition, Treasury and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve must report on U.S. gold holdings.\n\nThe [gold standard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard) is a system under which a country's currency is backed by and exchangeable for gold. [According to CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/29/is-it-really-time-for-a-return-of-the-gold-standard.html), referring to the end of the gold standard in the United States:\n\n>It was the Richard Nixon administration that completely severed the link between gold and the dollar in the early 1970s โ even after the gold standard was ditched in 1930s, foreign government were still allowed to exchange the greenback for bullion. Fixed amounts of gold were directly convertible to the U.S. dollar and vice versa. This meant the money supply was theoretically limited by the amount of gold backing it and exchange rates were based on the difference in price for an ounce of gold in different currencies.\n\nSome politicians and pundits [have advocated](https://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/29/is-it-really-time-for-a-return-of-the-gold-standard.html) for the US to return to the gold standard." }, { "id": 18060, "title": "Will there be a Run on the Banks before 2031?", "short_title": "Will there be a Run on the Banks before 2031?", "url_title": "Will there be a Run on the Banks before 2031?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-run-on-the-banks-before-2031", "author_id": 129147, "author_username": "txmerritt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-25T13:17:37.587672Z", "published_at": "2023-08-03T04:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.659073Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-03T04:16:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-03T04:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18060, "title": "Will there be a Run on the Banks before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-07-25T13:17:37.587672Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T04:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-05T04:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-05T04:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A \"run on the banks\" refers to a situation in which a large number of depositors, concerned about the stability or solvency of a financial institution, simultaneously withdraw their funds from their accounts. This massive withdrawal of funds can lead to a severe liquidity crisis for the bank, making it difficult or impossible to meet the demands of all the depositors.\n\n[During a bank run,]( https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/real-estate/2023/03/19/svb-collapse-new-banks-could-fail/11504269002/) there might be panic and loss of confidence in the institution, causing a self-fulfilling prophecy where more depositors rush to withdraw their funds, exacerbating the financial strain on the bank. Bank runs can have significant consequences on the financial system, leading to a domino effect on other banks and potentially triggering broader economic instability.\n\nDrawing on a [study by Jiang, Matvos, Pisorski, & Seru,]( https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4387676) the following characteristics of a bank run can be understood in terms of six dimensions:\n\n1.\tMarked-to-Market Losses: The article examines losses on banks' assets, including loan portfolios and securities linked to real estate, by adjusting them to their market values. Findings indicate that bank assets decline on average by 10%, with some banks experiencing a decline of up to 20%.\n\n2.\tImpact on Bank Solvency and Run Incentives: The decline in assets affects banks' solvency and run incentives. Banks with higher reliance on uninsured deposits are more susceptible to runs by depositors. Uninsured depositors have incentives to withdraw their funds if they believe the bank's assets have significantly decreased in value.\n\n3.\tUninsured Leverage and Bank Fragility: Uninsured leverage (Uninsured Debt/Assets) is a key factor in determining a bank's potential insolvency. Banks with lower initial capitalization and higher uninsured leverage are more fragile and vulnerable to runs by uninsured depositors.\n\n4.\tImpact of Interest Rate Increases: A rise in interest rates can exacerbate the vulnerability of banks to depositor runs. If interest rate increases are substantial, there is a possibility of a \"bad\" equilibrium with uninsured depositor runs leading to banks becoming insolvent.\n\n5.\tImplications for Financial Stability: The decline in bank asset values and a large share of uninsured deposits at some U.S. banks can impair their stability. Even if only a portion of uninsured depositors withdraw their funds, numerous banks are at potential risk, affecting insured depositors as well.\n\n6.\tIncreased Fragility of U.S. Banking System: The calculations suggest that recent declines in bank asset values significantly increased the fragility of the U.S. banking system to uninsured depositor runs.\n\nAfter extensive analysis, their conclusion is that โEven if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to even insured depositors, with potentially more than $250 billion of insured deposits at risk absent regulatory intervention.โ", "resolution_criteria": "The FDIC maintains a [Failed Bank](https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/) List tracking bank failures as well as a page [plotting them over time]( https://www.fdic.gov/bank/historical/bank/).\n\nThis question will resolve as โYesโ if 190 or more of FDIC insured banks fail between January 1st, 2023 and December 31st, 2030, based on the banks appearing in the list. The resolution date for this question will be January 15, 2031.", "fine_print": "If this dataset is not available, an equivalent statistic will be used, preferably published by the [FDIC](https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/) or another government body, or by an industry association.", "post_id": 18060, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754525104.17189, "end_time": 1758717055.4073, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754525104.17189, "end_time": 1758717055.4073, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21295333078441914 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.3767362196508774, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6766363252164118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 1.7699365855848301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4673700599492416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289516.390711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289516.390711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9628831275530205, 0.0371168724469795 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A \"run on the banks\" refers to a situation in which a large number of depositors, concerned about the stability or solvency of a financial institution, simultaneously withdraw their funds from their accounts. This massive withdrawal of funds can lead to a severe liquidity crisis for the bank, making it difficult or impossible to meet the demands of all the depositors.\n\n[During a bank run,]( https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/real-estate/2023/03/19/svb-collapse-new-banks-could-fail/11504269002/) there might be panic and loss of confidence in the institution, causing a self-fulfilling prophecy where more depositors rush to withdraw their funds, exacerbating the financial strain on the bank. Bank runs can have significant consequences on the financial system, leading to a domino effect on other banks and potentially triggering broader economic instability.\n\nDrawing on a [study by Jiang, Matvos, Pisorski, & Seru,]( https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4387676) the following characteristics of a bank run can be understood in terms of six dimensions:\n\n1.\tMarked-to-Market Losses: The article examines losses on banks' assets, including loan portfolios and securities linked to real estate, by adjusting them to their market values. Findings indicate that bank assets decline on average by 10%, with some banks experiencing a decline of up to 20%.\n\n2.\tImpact on Bank Solvency and Run Incentives: The decline in assets affects banks' solvency and run incentives. Banks with higher reliance on uninsured deposits are more susceptible to runs by depositors. Uninsured depositors have incentives to withdraw their funds if they believe the bank's assets have significantly decreased in value.\n\n3.\tUninsured Leverage and Bank Fragility: Uninsured leverage (Uninsured Debt/Assets) is a key factor in determining a bank's potential insolvency. Banks with lower initial capitalization and higher uninsured leverage are more fragile and vulnerable to runs by uninsured depositors.\n\n4.\tImpact of Interest Rate Increases: A rise in interest rates can exacerbate the vulnerability of banks to depositor runs. If interest rate increases are substantial, there is a possibility of a \"bad\" equilibrium with uninsured depositor runs leading to banks becoming insolvent.\n\n5.\tImplications for Financial Stability: The decline in bank asset values and a large share of uninsured deposits at some U.S. banks can impair their stability. Even if only a portion of uninsured depositors withdraw their funds, numerous banks are at potential risk, affecting insured depositors as well.\n\n6.\tIncreased Fragility of U.S. Banking System: The calculations suggest that recent declines in bank asset values significantly increased the fragility of the U.S. banking system to uninsured depositor runs.\n\nAfter extensive analysis, their conclusion is that โEven if only half of uninsured depositors decide to withdraw, almost 190 banks are at a potential risk of impairment to even insured depositors, with potentially more than $250 billion of insured deposits at risk absent regulatory intervention.โ" }, { "id": 18059, "title": "Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?", "short_title": "US Warship in Black Sea By Sept. 25, 2023?", "url_title": "US Warship in Black Sea By Sept. 25, 2023?", "slug": "us-warship-in-black-sea-by-sept-25-2023", "author_id": 128451, "author_username": "Onikolenko", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-25T10:55:59.395758Z", "published_at": "2023-07-26T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.849537Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-26T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-25T13:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-25T13:51:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-26T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 204, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18059, "title": "Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-25T10:55:59.395758Z", "open_time": "2023-07-26T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-26T17:28:36.273611Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-26T17:28:36.273611Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-25T13:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-25T13:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-25T13:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-24T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 17, 2023, Russia [announced](https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-black-sea-grain-deal-over/) that it had quit the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative). The Black Sea grain deal had been in force since July of 2022, protecting maritime grain shipments leaving Ukrainian ports.\n\nFollowing the end of the deal Russia's defense ministry [was reported as saying](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/20/russia-warns-ships-traveling-to-ukraine-considered-part-of-war)\n\n>. . . that it would deem all ships travelling to Ukraine to be potentially carrying military cargo on behalf of Kyiv and โthe flag countries of such ships will be considered parties to the Ukrainian conflictโ.\n\nDiscussing fallout from the end of the deal, [Politico describes](https://www.politico.eu/article/the-black-sea-grain-deal-is-all-but-dead-what-next/) approaches Ukraine is undertaking to export grain:\n\n>Ukraine has been readying a backup plan to get its grain shipments out without the deal. This hinges in part on a $500 million guarantee fund to cover any damages or expenses incurred by ships moving through the Black Sea and in part on shipping more grain out through Europeโs Danube river. \n>\n>Before the war, a few hundred thousand tons per month were exported via this route. Over the last year, this has increased to 2 million, and there is potential to double this figure, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association.\n\nIn [an article for Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-25/nato-convoys-can-protect-ukraine-s-grain-harvest-from-putin?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner) published on July 25, 2023, retired US Navy admiral James Stavridis proposed that US and NATO convoys should protect maritime shipments in the Black Sea.\n\nTรผrkiye [closed the Bosphorus Strait to warships](https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/turkey-closes-the-dardanelles-and-bosphorus-to-warships/) in late February 2022, shortly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, invoking its authority under the 1936 [Montreux Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits). Since that time US warships have not been reported to have entered the Black Sea, though in February of 2023 a US warship [was reported](https://news.usni.org/2023/02/03/u-s-destroyer-operating-near-the-black-sea-for-first-time-since-russia-invaded-ukraine) to have passed through the [Dardanelles Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_straits), entering the Sea of Marmara and stopping near Instanbul and the Gรถlcรผk Naval Base.\n\n<img src=\"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2017.08.18/chart3.png\" alt=\"Map of Turkish Straits\" />\n*[Image Source: US Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32552)*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 25, 2023, and before September 25, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a US warship has entered the Black Sea.", "fine_print": "* To be considered to have entered the Black Sea the warship must be credibly reported to have passed through the Bosphorus Strait into the Black Sea.\n* For the purposes of this question a \"warship\" will be a ship primarily intended for naval warfare and will include submarines.\n* Metaculus may wait for confirmation from multiple sources to resolve the question. If reports conflict or the credibility or clarity of a report is suspect, Metaculus may make a determination as to the appropriate resolution and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 18059, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695587781.660851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695587781.660851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.994, 0.006 ], "means": [ 0.016518656805520664 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.268545595110634, 8.807961307417541, 0.1822493081903842, 0.20146285194804567, 0.0015734690144859926, 0.1591083622645177, 0.0011909280262265062, 0.0, 0.09381021103254551, 0.23749130221740158, 1.0969627365957606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06468719643280448, 0.6528222470181185, 0.0, 0.2880987295426628, 0.0, 8.40686045586809e-05, 0.003829354721521801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037833420239022223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008375695061793323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.077997643105923, "coverage": 0.9998548646901579, "baseline_score": 98.50650285636925, "spot_peer_score": 4.054549321778057, "peer_archived_score": 3.077997643105923, "baseline_archived_score": 98.50650285636925, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.054549321778057 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695587781.692134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695587781.692134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 506, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 17, 2023, Russia [announced](https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-war-moscow-black-sea-grain-deal-over/) that it had quit the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative). The Black Sea grain deal had been in force since July of 2022, protecting maritime grain shipments leaving Ukrainian ports.\n\nFollowing the end of the deal Russia's defense ministry [was reported as saying](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/20/russia-warns-ships-traveling-to-ukraine-considered-part-of-war)\n\n>. . . that it would deem all ships travelling to Ukraine to be potentially carrying military cargo on behalf of Kyiv and โthe flag countries of such ships will be considered parties to the Ukrainian conflictโ.\n\nDiscussing fallout from the end of the deal, [Politico describes](https://www.politico.eu/article/the-black-sea-grain-deal-is-all-but-dead-what-next/) approaches Ukraine is undertaking to export grain:\n\n>Ukraine has been readying a backup plan to get its grain shipments out without the deal. This hinges in part on a $500 million guarantee fund to cover any damages or expenses incurred by ships moving through the Black Sea and in part on shipping more grain out through Europeโs Danube river. \n>\n>Before the war, a few hundred thousand tons per month were exported via this route. Over the last year, this has increased to 2 million, and there is potential to double this figure, according to the Ukrainian Grain Association.\n\nIn [an article for Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-07-25/nato-convoys-can-protect-ukraine-s-grain-harvest-from-putin?in_source=embedded-checkout-banner) published on July 25, 2023, retired US Navy admiral James Stavridis proposed that US and NATO convoys should protect maritime shipments in the Black Sea.\n\nTรผrkiye [closed the Bosphorus Strait to warships](https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/turkey-closes-the-dardanelles-and-bosphorus-to-warships/) in late February 2022, shortly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, invoking its authority under the 1936 [Montreux Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits). Since that time US warships have not been reported to have entered the Black Sea, though in February of 2023 a US warship [was reported](https://news.usni.org/2023/02/03/u-s-destroyer-operating-near-the-black-sea-for-first-time-since-russia-invaded-ukraine) to have passed through the [Dardanelles Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_straits), entering the Sea of Marmara and stopping near Instanbul and the Gรถlcรผk Naval Base.\n\n<img src=\"https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/images/2017.08.18/chart3.png\" alt=\"Map of Turkish Straits\" />\n*[Image Source: US Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=32552)*" }, { "id": 18047, "title": "Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?", "short_title": "Snap Spanish General Election By Early 2024?", "url_title": "Snap Spanish General Election By Early 2024?", "slug": "snap-spanish-general-election-by-early-2024", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-24T15:00:31.459208Z", "published_at": "2023-08-02T04:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.971023Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-02T04:19:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-28T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-28T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T15:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T15:22:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-02T04:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18047, "title": "Will Spain announce a snap general election before March 2024?", "created_at": "2023-07-24T15:00:31.459208Z", "open_time": "2023-08-02T04:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-04T04:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-04T04:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T15:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T15:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-04T15:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-28T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-28T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 2023-07-23, Spaniards went to the polls to elect the 15th Cortes Generales. The election resulted in a hung Congress of Deputies; center-right PP is the biggest party, but its 136 seats are far short of the 176 needed for a majority in the 350-strong chamber.\n\nRunners-up were the PSOE, PP's center-left rival, with a surprising 122 seats - a gain of two compared to projected losses based on pre-election polls. Next come right-wing Vox and left-wing Sumar, with 33 and 31 seats respectively. The balance, 28 seats, is accounted for by seven regionalist parties of various affiliations in the left-right spectrum.\n\nThis suggests coalition talks might prove difficult. The only possible two-party majority would be a PP-PSOE government, but such a German-style \"grand coalition\" is unheard of in the Spanish political tradition. Junts, a Catalan independentist party that holds seven seats and is seen as \"big tent\" in the left-right spectrum, is seen as kingmakers; however, their main platform plank of Catalan independence is strongly opposed by both major parties.\n\nAfter decades of parliaments lasting for most of their terms, Spain has in recent years seen two elections, in December 2015 and April 2019, fail to produce lasting governments. These ballots were succeeded by others in June 2016 and November 2019, both of which resulted in longer-lasting Cortes.\n\nIn this scenario, the question arises: will Spain call another election soon?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2024, a dissolution of the Spanish Congress has been announced, with a snap election called.", "fine_print": "The official act that counts for the resolution is a royal proclamation of dissolution. No other acts are required; in particular, the election date need not have been set or occurred yet. It is immaterial to the question whether some government is formed and collapses, or if no investiture is possible, as well as which government remains as caretaker.", "post_id": 18047, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709152510.901245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709152510.901245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.039736291914734614 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.8813052608175944, 5.94231628890023, 0.9963186162009714, 0.0, 0.4038734030575686, 0.5279194946783726, 0.0, 0.6615576181152365, 0.0, 0.5127619511096474, 0.48200992754260896, 0.24311673443421425, 0.29243700980224163, 0.10277262157203126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.2729826240762809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12050170072993827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027134041465974392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05467034373913199, 0.0, 0.006275715278433752, 0.0743529554125065, 0.004800587348436423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009837259930117102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005802195906227491 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 48.83198554771885, "coverage": 0.9987654493924045, "baseline_score": 40.60021355520605, "spot_peer_score": -183.17808230648237, "peer_archived_score": 48.83198554771885, "baseline_archived_score": 40.60021355520605, "spot_peer_archived_score": -183.17808230648237 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709152510.93303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709152510.93303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988305043632378, 0.0011694956367621385 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 134, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 2023-07-23, Spaniards went to the polls to elect the 15th Cortes Generales. The election resulted in a hung Congress of Deputies; center-right PP is the biggest party, but its 136 seats are far short of the 176 needed for a majority in the 350-strong chamber.\n\nRunners-up were the PSOE, PP's center-left rival, with a surprising 122 seats - a gain of two compared to projected losses based on pre-election polls. Next come right-wing Vox and left-wing Sumar, with 33 and 31 seats respectively. The balance, 28 seats, is accounted for by seven regionalist parties of various affiliations in the left-right spectrum.\n\nThis suggests coalition talks might prove difficult. The only possible two-party majority would be a PP-PSOE government, but such a German-style \"grand coalition\" is unheard of in the Spanish political tradition. Junts, a Catalan independentist party that holds seven seats and is seen as \"big tent\" in the left-right spectrum, is seen as kingmakers; however, their main platform plank of Catalan independence is strongly opposed by both major parties.\n\nAfter decades of parliaments lasting for most of their terms, Spain has in recent years seen two elections, in December 2015 and April 2019, fail to produce lasting governments. These ballots were succeeded by others in June 2016 and November 2019, both of which resulted in longer-lasting Cortes.\n\nIn this scenario, the question arises: will Spain call another election soon?" }, { "id": 18042, "title": "Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?", "short_title": "AI Singleton or Multipolar?", "url_title": "AI Singleton or Multipolar?", "slug": "ai-singleton-or-multipolar", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-24T14:39:06.817693Z", "published_at": "2023-11-10T12:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T08:17:44.110057Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-10T12:50:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-10T12:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, 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"forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T14:43:31.795105Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T11:58:05.999339Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], 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}, "question": { "id": 18042, "title": "Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?", "created_at": "2023-07-24T14:39:06.817693Z", "open_time": "2023-11-10T12:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-13T12:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-13T12:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "One way of dividing the space of possible futures is to consider whether transformative AI will lead to a singleton, which would be a huge change in the world order and a huge concentration of power, or a multipolar world, which would still be radically different to our current world (because of the prevalence of powerful AI), but which would look more like our present day situation of โthere are different groups of people with different goals and the ability to realize some subset of their goals.โ Whether we end up in a singleton world or a multipolar world is one of the most important questions when considering an AI-driven future (e.g., [Takahashi, 2023](https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.14478#)).\n\nThe [singleton hypothesis](https://nickbostrom.com/fut/singleton)โthat humanity's descendents would become a singletonโwas first put forward by [Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom). Bostrom thinks a singleton is more likely than not.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, within five years of the first transformative AI being deployed, more than 50% of world economic output can be attributed to the single most powerful AI system. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.\n\nThe date at which a โtransformative AI is deployedโ will be the resolution date of [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19356/transformative-ai-date/) related Metaculus question.\n\nTo be considered โattributed to the single most powerful AI systemโ the AI system or copies of such an AI system (including variants, offshoots, or future generations stemming from such an AI system) must be coordinating to produce economic output. The economic output must be measured in a sense of โvalue addedโ, or contribution to GDP stemming from the AI activities. For example, if an AI system was being used as a tool during the production of a good or service only the portion of output that the AI produces or directed will be considered, aligned to the extent possible with typical measures of contribution to GDP.\n\nQuestion resolution will be determined according to estimates published by credible sources that meet the criteria described. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity surrounding the question, Metaculus will assemble a three-person resolution committee. This committee will consist of one Metaculus staff member and two AI experts, selected in good faith by Metaculus. The committee's sole purpose is to resolve the question at hand. The committee will only be convened if Metaculus administrators determine that there is uncertainty regarding whether the question has met the criteria for a **Yes** resolution as previously outlined. Should the committee be convened, whether the question should be resolved and the resolution of the question will be based on the majority vote of these three individuals.", "fine_print": "Following is a definition of transformative AI (TAI) by [Ajeya Cotra](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/team/ajeya-cotra/) in her [Draft report on AI Timelines]((https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/15ArhEPZSTYU8f012bs6ehPS6-xmhtBPP)):\n> โTransformative artificial intelligenceโ (Transformative AI or TAI) is defined as โsoftwareโ (i.e. a computer program or collection of computer programs) that has at least as profound an impact on the worldโs trajectory as the Industrial Revolution did.\n> \n> How large is an impact โas profound as the Industrial Revolutionโ? Roughly speaking, over the course of the Industrial Revolution, the rate of growth in gross world product (GWP) went from about ~0.1% per year before 1700 to ~1% per year after 1850, a tenfold acceleration. By analogy, I think of โtransformative AIโ as software which causes a tenfold acceleration in the rate of growth of the world economy (assuming that it is used everywhere that it would be economically profitable to use it).\n> \n> Currently, the world economy is growing at ~2-3% per year, so TAI must bring the growth rate to 20%-30% per year if used everywhere it would be profitable to use. This means that if TAI is developed in year Y, the entire world economy would more than double by year Y + 4.", "post_id": 18042, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758356253.515392, "end_time": 1764738733.959761, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758356253.515392, "end_time": 1764738733.959761, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.4394491913210791 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06805199387035807, 0.03472799489688131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023714766002371646, 0.0, 0.6892219006058762, 0.3448542954210259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.448389020230496, 0.0, 0.39618411090454325, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4560104743178632, 0.17573956450005151, 0.9703138208262472, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7638912157279871, 0.10155422864166669, 0.0, 0.22688437022518046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5338394326564748, 0.6167356607444825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13210070443743485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023132514010442214, 0.2944719890291058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15377460356920478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011295907652000815, 0.0, 0.3386147212732673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15854632484626208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7104289439189292, 0.17426845095331975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06124341082421378, 0.08346609532897402, 0.4606527189387643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3669337095617011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4478591025972047, 0.0, 0.01550349210722101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7738748497034448, 0.0, 0.33953082659674816, 0.017967096637953702, 0.0, 0.030705460506385295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049233607049991815 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287120.374412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287120.374412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.68702446072063, 0.31297553927937005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 131, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "One way of dividing the space of possible futures is to consider whether transformative AI will lead to a singleton, which would be a huge change in the world order and a huge concentration of power, or a multipolar world, which would still be radically different to our current world (because of the prevalence of powerful AI), but which would look more like our present day situation of โthere are different groups of people with different goals and the ability to realize some subset of their goals.โ Whether we end up in a singleton world or a multipolar world is one of the most important questions when considering an AI-driven future (e.g., [Takahashi, 2023](https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.14478#)).\n\nThe [singleton hypothesis](https://nickbostrom.com/fut/singleton)โthat humanity's descendents would become a singletonโwas first put forward by [Nick Bostrom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nick_Bostrom). Bostrom thinks a singleton is more likely than not." }, { "id": 18007, "title": "Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?", "short_title": "Elite colleges drop admit essays for 2024", "url_title": "Elite colleges drop admit essays for 2024", "slug": "elite-colleges-drop-admit-essays-for-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-22T14:39:47.818090Z", "published_at": "2023-07-24T00:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.927514Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-24T00:32:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-24T23:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-24T23:20:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-24T00:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "๐ค", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "๐ค", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18007, "title": "Will any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT drop essay requirements for the application to the 2024 undergraduate class?", "created_at": "2023-07-22T14:39:47.818090Z", "open_time": "2023-07-24T00:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-26T00:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-26T00:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-24T23:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-24T23:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-24T23:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Most good universities in the US have required undergraduate applicants to write admissions essays. As of mid 2023, Harvard and Stanford require the \"first-year essay prompts\" in the [Common Application](https://www.commonapp.org/apply/essay-prompts); Harvard also [requires](https://college.harvard.edu/guides/application-tips) a \"Personal Essay\"; Stanford [requires](https://admission.stanford.edu/apply/first-year/apply.html) 3 \"short essay questions\"; and MIT [requires](https://mitadmissions.org/apply/firstyear/essays-activities-academics/) 4 short \"response questions\".\n\nWith the advent of OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude, and other LLMs, it has been widely reported that students assigned essays (that are not done proctored in the classroom) are commonly turning to AI to write their essays whole cloth, or to provide drafts, outlines, or revisions. There is some [speculation that this will cause some universities to drop the essay requirement](https://twitter.com/ciphergoth/status/1682492210342936576), though it is unclear whether they will, or when, or which universities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if any of Harvard, Stanford, or MIT do not require any \"essays\" in their standard undergraduate application for admission for the school year starting in fall 2024.", "fine_print": "\"Essay\" here means at least 100 words of text in response to a question prompt. Doesn't count short entries for factual information such as \"describe your needs for financial support\".\n\n\"Standard\" here means the default application as seen on the admissions sites (links in background section). It is not relevant for this question if there are exceptional cases where some applicants do / don't have the same requirements.", "post_id": 18007, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695022207.315409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695022207.315409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.027430292525431835 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.9678002837626725, 7.333208532305743, 0.3024610279241009, 0.19022867636853028, 0.17268889098444576, 0.08656237378162301, 0.5164960024539398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007406772822704901, 0.29365530089148495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003256133383704309, 0.005849328395348274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6983056029809626, 0.004474424132665067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20728428597607368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.5938848939012924, "coverage": 0.4541367906371329, "baseline_score": 44.065375635566106, "spot_peer_score": -5.369141167531349, "peer_archived_score": 1.5938848939012924, "baseline_archived_score": 44.065375635566106, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.369141167531349 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692915150.451377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692915150.451377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9989921199900043, 0.0010078800099957554 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Most good universities in the US have required undergraduate applicants to write admissions essays. As of mid 2023, Harvard and Stanford require the \"first-year essay prompts\" in the [Common Application](https://www.commonapp.org/apply/essay-prompts); Harvard also [requires](https://college.harvard.edu/guides/application-tips) a \"Personal Essay\"; Stanford [requires](https://admission.stanford.edu/apply/first-year/apply.html) 3 \"short essay questions\"; and MIT [requires](https://mitadmissions.org/apply/firstyear/essays-activities-academics/) 4 short \"response questions\".\n\nWith the advent of OpenAI's ChatGPT, Anthropic's Claude, and other LLMs, it has been widely reported that students assigned essays (that are not done proctored in the classroom) are commonly turning to AI to write their essays whole cloth, or to provide drafts, outlines, or revisions. There is some [speculation that this will cause some universities to drop the essay requirement](https://twitter.com/ciphergoth/status/1682492210342936576), though it is unclear whether they will, or when, or which universities." }, { "id": 17995, "title": "Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?", "short_title": "Destroyed Navy ship in the Black Sea by 2025", "url_title": "Destroyed Navy ship in the Black Sea by 2025", "slug": "destroyed-navy-ship-in-the-black-sea-by-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-20T18:07:51.930356Z", "published_at": "2023-08-01T15:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.356436Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-01T15:16:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-05T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-05T05:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-01T15:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17995, "title": "Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-07-20T18:07:51.930356Z", "open_time": "2023-08-01T15:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-03T15:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-03T15:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-05T05:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-05T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-05T05:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Historically, the [Black Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea) has been the battleground of numerous conflicts resulting in the loss of Naval vessels. The most recent and on-going conflict is the [Russo-Ukrainian war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War).\n\nFrom the onset of the war, most of the conflict has taken place on land, however the Black Sea has also seen significant naval conflict.\n\nThe region is host to the [Russian Navy's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Navy) [Black Sea Fleet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet) (BSF) which boasts a fleet of around 40 vessels ranging from large frigates (up to 5,400 tonne), smaller corvettes (up to 2,200 tonne), as well as [submarines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilo-class_submarine).\n\n<small>Note: See [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Navy_ships) for Wikipedia's list of active Russian Navy vessels (sort for Black Sea Fleet)</small>\n\nThe [Ukrainian Navy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Navy) on the other hand has a minuscule fleet, consisting mainly of auxiliary vessels and fast-attack crafts. All of Ukraine's larger vessels were lost as a result of the war; her final large surface vessel, the frigate *Hetman Sahaidachny*, was scuttled by Ukrainian forces to prevent her capture.\n\n<small>Note: See [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Ukrainian_Navy_ships) for Wikipedia's list of active Ukrainian Navy vessels</small>\n\nWhilst a large *proportion* of Ukrainian Navy vessels have been lost, the Russian Navy has lost a large *number* of vessels. In the BSFโs attempt to establish and maintain naval supremacy in the Black Sea, a number of smaller and larger vessels have been lost, perhaps most notably the fleet's *ex-*flagship vessel, the cruiser [ *Moskva* (Moscow)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_cruiser_Moskva) on 14 April 2022 as a result of Ukrainian land-based anti-ship missile strikes.\n\nThe [Turkish Navy](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Naval_Forces) is another navy who operate in the Black Sea. Turkey has huge strategic influence over the region as they have a degree of control over the [Bosporus Strait](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosporus ) as a result of the [Montreux Convention](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits).\n\nThe [US Navy](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Navy) has also frequently transited the Bosporus Strait and entered the region. In the Cold War, a [ramming incident](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Black_Sea_bumping_incident) occurred between US and Soviet navies. More recent confrontation came about when a [Russian Su-27 downed a US MQ-9 Reaper UAV](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Black_Sea_drone_incident ) over the Black Sea in March 2023.\n\nGiven the importance of the Black Sea, as well as the substantial amount of on-going military conflict, it is entirely possible that one or more navy vessel(s) operating in the area may be lost.\n\n________________________________________________________\n\n**N.B.** Wikipedia's *[List of ship losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ship_losses_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War)* provides an exhaustive list of navy *and* civilian ship losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War (as well as Russia's Invasion of Crimea).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve ***Yes*** if reputable sources report that a Navy vessel that displaces โฅ500 tonnes has either been:\n\n- sunk;\n- destroyed;\n- scuttled;\n- captured; or\n- critically damaged\n\nwhilst operating in the Black Sea before Jan 1, 2025.\n\nAlternatively, if multiple smaller Navy vessels displacing <500 tonnes are lost, but their cumulative displacements are โฅ500 tonnes, this question will also resolve ***Yes***. These vessels need not be lost in a single battle / event.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question:\n\n- A 'Navy' ship is a sea-going vessel which belongs to the Navy of a nation's Armed Forces. \n\n- A Naval vessel belonging to *any* nation will be valid for this question.\n\n- Accidental events as a result of 'friendly fire' (e.g. a vessel hitting it's own mine) count towards the resolution. Other accidental events such as a Navy vessel colliding with a merchant vessel or colliding with a harbour structure also count towards the resolution since such events are deemed to be highly unlikely.\n\n- Officially (stated by Navy sources) decommissioned vessels *do not* count towards the resolution.\n\n- Auxiliary Navy vessels (including Floating Docks) do not count towards the resolution.\n\nMoreover:\n\n- *Sunk*. Ship is at the bottom of the Black Sea.\n- *Destroyed*. Ship is catastrophically damaged and likely at the bottom of the Black Sea.\n- *Scuttled*. A ship deliberately destroyed / sunk by her own armed forces to prevent capture.\n- *Captured*. Taken over by opposing forces and *successfully* taken to a home or occupied port.\n- *Critically damaged*. Damaged to the point where it cannot sail under it's own power (would likely require both a tow to port and be kept there for repairs for a substantial period of time).", "post_id": 17995, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691488044.714949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691488044.714949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9238697516359441 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.002164380995132114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01936509307245438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09501865743952613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37068749199850365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016810815496895358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00741623973729105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8749085186757798, 0.08622329263095156, 0.6098824998644072, 0.0, 0.06367247509170942, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8553162299703496, 0.41464833804857143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5568642014576499, 1.9055826246125673, 1.6400852724751054, 0.0, 0.7696844446677985, 4.30508164142249 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.5095751953482375, "coverage": 0.006888989089032816, "baseline_score": 0.3207769110122689, "spot_peer_score": 109.20116798942584, "peer_archived_score": 0.5095751953482375, "baseline_archived_score": 0.3207769110122689, "spot_peer_archived_score": 109.20116798942584 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691206197.345726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691206197.345726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.12088617230037768, 0.8791138276996223 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Historically, the [Black Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea) has been the battleground of numerous conflicts resulting in the loss of Naval vessels. The most recent and on-going conflict is the [Russo-Ukrainian war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War).\n\nFrom the onset of the war, most of the conflict has taken place on land, however the Black Sea has also seen significant naval conflict.\n\nThe region is host to the [Russian Navy's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Navy) [Black Sea Fleet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Fleet) (BSF) which boasts a fleet of around 40 vessels ranging from large frigates (up to 5,400 tonne), smaller corvettes (up to 2,200 tonne), as well as [submarines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilo-class_submarine).\n\n<small>Note: See [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Navy_ships) for Wikipedia's list of active Russian Navy vessels (sort for Black Sea Fleet)</small>\n\nThe [Ukrainian Navy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Navy) on the other hand has a minuscule fleet, consisting mainly of auxiliary vessels and fast-attack crafts. All of Ukraine's larger vessels were lost as a result of the war; her final large surface vessel, the frigate *Hetman Sahaidachny*, was scuttled by Ukrainian forces to prevent her capture.\n\n<small>Note: See [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Ukrainian_Navy_ships) for Wikipedia's list of active Ukrainian Navy vessels</small>\n\nWhilst a large *proportion* of Ukrainian Navy vessels have been lost, the Russian Navy has lost a large *number* of vessels. In the BSFโs attempt to establish and maintain naval supremacy in the Black Sea, a number of smaller and larger vessels have been lost, perhaps most notably the fleet's *ex-*flagship vessel, the cruiser [ *Moskva* (Moscow)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_cruiser_Moskva) on 14 April 2022 as a result of Ukrainian land-based anti-ship missile strikes.\n\nThe [Turkish Navy](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Naval_Forces) is another navy who operate in the Black Sea. Turkey has huge strategic influence over the region as they have a degree of control over the [Bosporus Strait](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosporus ) as a result of the [Montreux Convention](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits).\n\nThe [US Navy](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Navy) has also frequently transited the Bosporus Strait and entered the region. In the Cold War, a [ramming incident](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Black_Sea_bumping_incident) occurred between US and Soviet navies. More recent confrontation came about when a [Russian Su-27 downed a US MQ-9 Reaper UAV](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Black_Sea_drone_incident ) over the Black Sea in March 2023.\n\nGiven the importance of the Black Sea, as well as the substantial amount of on-going military conflict, it is entirely possible that one or more navy vessel(s) operating in the area may be lost.\n\n________________________________________________________\n\n**N.B.** Wikipedia's *[List of ship losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ship_losses_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War)* provides an exhaustive list of navy *and* civilian ship losses during the Russo-Ukrainian War (as well as Russia's Invasion of Crimea)." }, { "id": 17993, "title": "Will the reported 2023 count of TBE cases in Sweden exceed 370 on October 1?", "short_title": "Swedish 2023 TBE Cases Over 370 By October?", "url_title": "Swedish 2023 TBE Cases Over 370 By October?", "slug": 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Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17993, "title": "Will the reported 2023 count of TBE cases in Sweden exceed 370 on October 1?", "created_at": "2023-07-20T15:43:52.539560Z", "open_time": "2023-08-02T03:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-12T03:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-12T03:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-28T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-15T16:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-15T16:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-28T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-15T16:48:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of ticks in Sweden [has increased significantly](https://www.thelocal.se/20221113/more-people-in-sweden-expected-to-get-tick-borne-encephalitis-this-winter) over the past 20 years. With that comes an increase in the number of cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), a [notifiable disease in Sweden](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/28/7/22-0010_article#:~:text=TBE%20became%20a%20notifiable%20disease,Public%20Health%20Agency%20of%20Sweden.) (meaning all cases must be reported to the Public Health Agency.)\n\nTBE is a serious disease which can turn life-threatening even for adults. Many people vaccinate for preventative protection, but there is no antiviral treatment against it.\n\nNote that the resolution time of this question, October 1, is before the tick season practically ends (which is somewhere in November) so previous yearly totals may not be a great guide to the state in October.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Public Health Agency statistics page on TBE](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/folkhalsorapportering-statistik/statistik-a-o/sjukdomsstatistik/tick-borne-encephalitis-tbe/) shows more than 370 reported cases in the total row for the 2023 column when accessed on October 1, 2023. The case count will be used for \"all cases\" (\"Samtigla fall\" in the untranslated version) which includes infections occurring both in Sweden and abroad.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the number is less than or equal to 370.\n\nThe question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if the Public Health Agency stops publishing those statistics before the resolution date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17993, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692114931.661159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692114931.661159, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21637697517141463 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.45996728178138946, 0.2596374021764951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6920802133593755, 0.0, 0.41990426677267545, 0.06291985323287631, 0.12319881668018823, 1.0118007985840993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1685193219361709, 0.5677130138662033, 0.7636475030784153, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8716505529499683, 0.0, 2.5438394217942397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21925555021421456, 0.0, 0.9708756993358977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1455112435921455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36974441003806857, 0.38854550310770575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06551312909054313, 0.0, 0.02368489080579067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18597119241628712, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01894819125548946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0090705904541796, 0.003637646323940793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04478739497884664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.812986479619698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692114931.679833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692114931.679833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9485197494010301, 0.05148025059896984 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 208, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of ticks in Sweden [has increased significantly](https://www.thelocal.se/20221113/more-people-in-sweden-expected-to-get-tick-borne-encephalitis-this-winter) over the past 20 years. With that comes an increase in the number of cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), a [notifiable disease in Sweden](https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/28/7/22-0010_article#:~:text=TBE%20became%20a%20notifiable%20disease,Public%20Health%20Agency%20of%20Sweden.) (meaning all cases must be reported to the Public Health Agency.)\n\nTBE is a serious disease which can turn life-threatening even for adults. Many people vaccinate for preventative protection, but there is no antiviral treatment against it.\n\nNote that the resolution time of this question, October 1, is before the tick season practically ends (which is somewhere in November) so previous yearly totals may not be a great guide to the state in October." }, { "id": 17992, "title": "Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?", "short_title": "Libya presidential election before 2025?", "url_title": "Libya presidential election before 2025?", "slug": "libya-presidential-election-before-2025", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-20T09:46:32.673351Z", "published_at": "2023-08-05T05:07:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.984149Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-05T05:07:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T22:07:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-05T05:07:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17992, "title": "Will Libya hold a presidential election before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-07-20T09:46:32.673351Z", "open_time": "2023-08-05T05:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-07T05:07:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-07T05:07:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T22:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T22:07:10.347225Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya had its first free election in some 50-odd years, seeing their [electoral democracy index (as judged by V-Dem) spike at above 0.5](https://ourworldindata.org/democracy). In its 2014 election, Libya appointed a House of Representatives as its government.\n\nThe validity of this election was questioned by other political bodies, among them the previous interim government that was to be replaced with the House of Representatives. This situation culminated in the second Libyan civil war.\n\nIn the past nine years since 2014, Libya has been ruled by multiple rival governments in control over various parts of the country. Multiple attempts have been made to unify these governments, of which many have broken down one way or another. \n\nCurrently, Libya is ruled by the transitional Government of National Unity, supported by the House of Representatives. (Although some sources claim the Government of National Unity is opposed by parts of the House of Representatives and several other smaller political organisations.) The Government of National Unity has a president as head of state and in command of the armed forces. This position is currently held by al-Menfi, who was appointed as part of the ongoing peace process.\n\nA free election for the Presidential position has been planned and postponed repeatedly, mainly over conflict about the process and rules for running. The most recent postponement at the end of 2022 did not come with the announcement of a new timeframe. With the last postponement, the electoral democracy index of Libya has taken another dive. That said, a UN envoy says that a new election is in process, and the incumbent prime minister promises 2023 will be a year of elections.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **yes** if a credible source reports that presidential elections have taken place in Libya before January 1, 2025. Otherwise it resolves **no**.\n\nIf Libya ceases to be recognised as a country by the UN, the question resolves **ambiguous**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17992, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735312005.898365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735312005.898365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06672809437774602 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.213754928642148, 0.15917957049677586, 0.5267121648213062, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.46890301972848125, 0.3505974991955362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4330723097159611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.19882555502483, "peer_score": 7.597736250576167, "coverage": 0.9992789368832843, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9992789368832843, "spot_peer_score": 22.96912850574365, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 61.19882555502483, "peer_archived_score": 7.597736250576167, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.96912850574365, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288593.813358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288593.813358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9494398582235186, 0.05056014177648137 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya had its first free election in some 50-odd years, seeing their [electoral democracy index (as judged by V-Dem) spike at above 0.5](https://ourworldindata.org/democracy). In its 2014 election, Libya appointed a House of Representatives as its government.\n\nThe validity of this election was questioned by other political bodies, among them the previous interim government that was to be replaced with the House of Representatives. This situation culminated in the second Libyan civil war.\n\nIn the past nine years since 2014, Libya has been ruled by multiple rival governments in control over various parts of the country. Multiple attempts have been made to unify these governments, of which many have broken down one way or another. \n\nCurrently, Libya is ruled by the transitional Government of National Unity, supported by the House of Representatives. (Although some sources claim the Government of National Unity is opposed by parts of the House of Representatives and several other smaller political organisations.) The Government of National Unity has a president as head of state and in command of the armed forces. This position is currently held by al-Menfi, who was appointed as part of the ongoing peace process.\n\nA free election for the Presidential position has been planned and postponed repeatedly, mainly over conflict about the process and rules for running. The most recent postponement at the end of 2022 did not come with the announcement of a new timeframe. With the last postponement, the electoral democracy index of Libya has taken another dive. That said, a UN envoy says that a new election is in process, and the incumbent prime minister promises 2023 will be a year of elections." } ] }
