Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3160
{ "count": 6358, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3180", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3140", "results": [ { "id": 21491, "title": "Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?", "short_title": "China Occupies Kinmen or Matsu by 2028?", "url_title": "China Occupies Kinmen or Matsu by 2028?", "slug": "china-occupies-kinmen-or-matsu-by-2028", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-22T05:38:35.655115Z", "published_at": "2024-03-06T00:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:09:31.256970Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-06T00:22:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-06T00:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:15:58.952629Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21491, "title": "Will China occupy Kinmen or Matsu before 2028?", "created_at": "2024-02-22T05:38:35.655115Z", "open_time": "2024-03-06T00:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-09T00:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-09T00:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Taiwan makes up most of the land territory of the Republic of China (ROC). ROC also controls smaller islands, including [Kinmen](https://www.britannica.com/place/Quemoy-Island) and [Matsu](https://www.britannica.com/place/Matsu-Island). Both are located directly off the coast of China's Fujian province; distance to Taiwan is 275 km for Kinmen and 210 km for Matsu. Kinmen is 132 km², more than 10x the size of Matsu (10 km²). Map highlighting Kinmen (note use of \"Quemoy,\" another common rendering in English sources): https://cdn.britannica.com/29/247029-050-4F923DFF/Locator-map-Quemoy-Island.jpg \n\nAttention has historically focused on these islands during periods of tension between the People's Republic of China and ROC. The PRC shelled both islands in 1958.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if the People's Republic of China (PRC) assumes de facto control of either the island of Kinmen or the island of Matsu for at least 24 consecutive hours, according to credible media reports, before January 1, 2028. \"De facto control\" need not involve replacement of the current civilian population by PRC citizens. If the occupation is contested and fluid (as in a war scenario), Metaculus will determine whether either island is held by PRC for full 24 hours, and if the situation is unclear, will resolve the question ambiguously.", "fine_print": "Occupation of the 11 smaller islands near Kinmen that belong to its same administrative division (which is also called Kinmen) don't count toward resolution. The same applies to Matsu, mutatis mutandis.", "post_id": 21491, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763330960.402752, "end_time": 1766575937.411, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763330960.402752, "end_time": 1766575937.411, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43789078752950616 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30419926008418685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.6734086415841654, 0.08591921520153545, 0.9592638368914898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9227327919449562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289336.086565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289336.086565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9594915109434649, 0.040508489056535146 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Taiwan makes up most of the land territory of the Republic of China (ROC). ROC also controls smaller islands, including [Kinmen](https://www.britannica.com/place/Quemoy-Island) and [Matsu](https://www.britannica.com/place/Matsu-Island). Both are located directly off the coast of China's Fujian province; distance to Taiwan is 275 km for Kinmen and 210 km for Matsu. Kinmen is 132 km², more than 10x the size of Matsu (10 km²). Map highlighting Kinmen (note use of \"Quemoy,\" another common rendering in English sources): https://cdn.britannica.com/29/247029-050-4F923DFF/Locator-map-Quemoy-Island.jpg \n\nAttention has historically focused on these islands during periods of tension between the People's Republic of China and ROC. The PRC shelled both islands in 1958." }, { "id": 21490, "title": "Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?", "short_title": "Will Lindsay Hoyle Stay on as Speaker?", "url_title": "Will Lindsay Hoyle Stay on as Speaker?", "slug": "will-lindsay-hoyle-stay-on-as-speaker", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-21T19:37:11.293307Z", "published_at": "2024-02-22T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.927936Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-22T01:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-01T00:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21490, "title": "Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?", "created_at": "2024-02-21T19:37:11.293307Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-22T19:12:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-22T19:12:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Sir Lindsay Hoyle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsay_Hoyle) is a former Labour MP and the current speaker of the House of Commons in the UK. Unlike in the US, the speaker of the House of Commons in the UK is not a member of either party and is conventionally strictly non-partisan. \n\nOn the 21st of February 2024, he caused tremendous controversy and uproar amongst members of the Tory and SNP parties when, on the SNP's opposition day (a day where the SNP decides which issues are debated in the House of Commons) he selected the Labour amendment to the SNP's motion to be debated, in addition to the SNPs motion. This was controversial because the Tory government had also put forth an amendment for consideration, and long-standing precedent is that if the government puts forward an amendment, then only that amendment will be considered in addition to the original motion. \n\nMembers of the SNP expressed their fury with the decision, as it undermined their opposition day and as it posed the possibility of the house not being able to vote on the SNPs own motion on its opposition day. The Tory Party was upset because in addition to breaking with convention, the decision put many members of the government in a politically precarious position because it would likely result in the government's own amendment not being considered. As a result, the Tory Party abstained from both votes, and the SNP's motion and the Labour amendments passed unanimously without a division. \n\nIn statements in the House after the motion and amendment had passed, the leader of the SNP and Tory parties both expressed their concern over their parties to have confidence in the speaker's impartiality going forward.", "resolution_criteria": "The Question will resolve as **Yes** if, at 00:00 on March 1, 2024 (local time, GMT), Sir Lindsey Hoyle is still Speaker of the House of Commons, according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709245935.251898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709245935.251898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9716508636010623 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027719772151930493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005676640048993487, 0.0, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.013492534825694926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006744008424660957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001291273368885473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0090395625344522, 0.0038045040913139735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2210762549877181, 0.0, 0.009604210045876128, 0.0, 0.022614253091566634, 0.1497792651562, 0.0, 0.11069885177874525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2669241563924628, 0.09722222970319579, 0.20915411965007666, 0.17801954162256386, 13.972805222810914 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.576055866656326, "coverage": 0.9984503105038789, "baseline_score": 75.01372430385685, "spot_peer_score": 32.49300010188849, "peer_archived_score": 23.576055866656326, "baseline_archived_score": 75.01372430385685, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.49300010188849 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709245935.296496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709245935.296496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.005856656044797681, 0.9941433439552023 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 301, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Sir Lindsay Hoyle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsay_Hoyle) is a former Labour MP and the current speaker of the House of Commons in the UK. Unlike in the US, the speaker of the House of Commons in the UK is not a member of either party and is conventionally strictly non-partisan. \n\nOn the 21st of February 2024, he caused tremendous controversy and uproar amongst members of the Tory and SNP parties when, on the SNP's opposition day (a day where the SNP decides which issues are debated in the House of Commons) he selected the Labour amendment to the SNP's motion to be debated, in addition to the SNPs motion. This was controversial because the Tory government had also put forth an amendment for consideration, and long-standing precedent is that if the government puts forward an amendment, then only that amendment will be considered in addition to the original motion. \n\nMembers of the SNP expressed their fury with the decision, as it undermined their opposition day and as it posed the possibility of the house not being able to vote on the SNPs own motion on its opposition day. The Tory Party was upset because in addition to breaking with convention, the decision put many members of the government in a politically precarious position because it would likely result in the government's own amendment not being considered. As a result, the Tory Party abstained from both votes, and the SNP's motion and the Labour amendments passed unanimously without a division. \n\nIn statements in the House after the motion and amendment had passed, the leader of the SNP and Tory parties both expressed their concern over their parties to have confidence in the speaker's impartiality going forward." }, { "id": 21489, "title": "Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?", "short_title": "Biden Order on Immigration in Early March?", "url_title": "Biden Order on Immigration in Early March?", "slug": "biden-order-on-immigration-in-early-march", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-21T18:31:02.908358Z", "published_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.602128Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21489, "title": "Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-02-21T18:31:02.908358Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-23T09:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-23T09:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-11T16:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Biden has faced significant criticism from conservatives, and from [liberals as well](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/15/biden-border-immigration-00141388), regarding his handling of the border. Illegal border crossings hit an [all-time high](https://apnews.com/article/immigration-border-crossings-mexico-biden-18ac91ef502e0c5433f74de6cc629b32) in December 2023, before [encounters fell in January 2024](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters).\n\n<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2024-02-21_123130.jpeg\" alt=\"Land Border Encounters by Month\" />\n*[Image from US Customs and Border Protection](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters)*\n\n[According to Axios](https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/biden-trump-age-state-union-election), the Biden administration has been seeking a means to improve public perceptions and improve Biden's [polling deficit against Trump](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden), and sees his upcoming [State of the Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_the_Union) address as such an opportunity. According to unnamed officials cited by Axios, one approach being considered by Biden is to publish an executive order on the border ahead of the State of the Union:\n\n>One bold move that Biden has considered, we're told, is an executive order that would dramatically stanch the record flow of migrants into the Southwest. This could even happen in the two weeks before the address, allowing Biden to say he took action while Republicans just talk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after February 21, 2024, and before President Biden's State of the Union speech begins on March 7, 2024, the Biden administration has issued an executive order that it describes as targeted at reducing the flow of migrants entering the US.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, the policies or actions described in the executive order are immaterial and no consideration will be made as to their efficacy. Only a description or characterization by the Biden administration that one of the goals of the executive order is to reduce the number of migrants entering into the US is required.\n* Descriptions or characterizations will be considered to be the public materials or statements made by the administration regarding the executive order on the day the executive order was released. This might include fact sheets or press briefings (for example the [fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/02/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-initiative-to-bolster-cybersecurity-of-u-s-ports/) that accompanied a recent [executive order issued on February 21, 2024](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/02/21/executive-order-on-amending-regulations-relating-to-the-safeguarding-of-vessels-harbors-ports-and-waterfront-facilities-of-the-united-states/). Metaculus will assess the descriptions or characterizations to resolve the question, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** in the event the available information is unclear.\n* This question will resolve as **Yes** if the criteria have been met before the start of the State of the Union on March 7, 2024, or, if the State of the Union is delayed until after March 7, if the criteria have been met before March 8, 2024.", "post_id": 21489, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709243700.278195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709243700.278195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3869183270932329 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7471171729673871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23202808966568075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9433465922480666, 0.3728600386790456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32660281038909744, 0.0, 0.0, 1.924079097475698, 0.0, 0.486829750633724, 0.0, 0.8895461476317509, 0.0, 0.0, 1.584020099606137, 0.5475369850104072, 0.022225972450640584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4660661968378147, 0.0, 0.003626958106395275, 0.0, 0.12418085745577043, 1.77642643031823, 0.02464094517995897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24877094235518352, 0.851820964582102, 0.0, 0.052577289157086836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036486146261818564, 0.14545392194110204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2807120396237446, 0.021531750693967372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8215131112850081, 0.2501835654769586, 0.003689275185039177, 0.016079834428119808, 0.014358311246418655, 0.4312171538295371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02000227009300229, 0.0, 0.703629119148065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030097723134820904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3054018648546395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050634840930635725 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.022523384285469, "coverage": 0.9994538792925346, "baseline_score": -11.954008721598543, "spot_peer_score": -10.385603162279958, "peer_archived_score": 12.022523384285469, "baseline_archived_score": -11.954008721598543, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.385603162279958 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709243700.31617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709243700.31617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8243426803708689, 0.17565731962913114 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 172, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President Biden has faced significant criticism from conservatives, and from [liberals as well](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/15/biden-border-immigration-00141388), regarding his handling of the border. Illegal border crossings hit an [all-time high](https://apnews.com/article/immigration-border-crossings-mexico-biden-18ac91ef502e0c5433f74de6cc629b32) in December 2023, before [encounters fell in January 2024](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters).\n\n<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2024-02-21_123130.jpeg\" alt=\"Land Border Encounters by Month\" />\n*[Image from US Customs and Border Protection](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters)*\n\n[According to Axios](https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/biden-trump-age-state-union-election), the Biden administration has been seeking a means to improve public perceptions and improve Biden's [polling deficit against Trump](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden), and sees his upcoming [State of the Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_the_Union) address as such an opportunity. According to unnamed officials cited by Axios, one approach being considered by Biden is to publish an executive order on the border ahead of the State of the Union:\n\n>One bold move that Biden has considered, we're told, is an executive order that would dramatically stanch the record flow of migrants into the Southwest. This could even happen in the two weeks before the address, allowing Biden to say he took action while Republicans just talk." }, { "id": 21488, "title": "Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?", "short_title": "Nvidia Top Four Market Cap at End of March?", "url_title": "Nvidia Top Four Market Cap at End of March?", "slug": "nvidia-top-four-market-cap-at-end-of-march", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-21T16:49:48.472842Z", "published_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.714235Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T20:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T20:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 184, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21488, "title": "Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-02-21T16:49:48.472842Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-25T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-25T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T20:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T20:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-29T20:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-28T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-earnings-after-parabolic-stock-rally.html). The stock is up [approximately 41% year-to-date as of February 21, 2024](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjVr6qM8LyEAxWY5MkDHRwNC4UQ3ecFegQIahAf&window=YTD).\n\nAs of February 21 the website [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) shows Nvidia as the sixth ranked company globally by [market capitalization](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp), which is the total dollar value of outstanding shares of the company's stock. Nvidia trails Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Saudi Aramco, Apple, and Microsoft.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when trading closes on March 29, 2024, (after 4 PM eastern time), Nvidia is ranked fourth place or higher by market cap [according to CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21488, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711659785.932203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711659785.932203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9398862707695589 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0008505046379414663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6625140404033754, 0.0, 0.8306291892874734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017240219277825134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5812286299003168e-05, 0.00023206163730533122, 9.495809459034564e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.41906280066532e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003157704736511062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.729487161849235e-05, 5.2860123581788815e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012564070509354954, 0.0, 0.00013994735994872138, 3.4933130772601314e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019197746551050598, 0.00025527801696022414, 0.008314988254894786, 6.179570958861009e-05, 0.0, 0.0016000315115564422, 0.00032912004875071453, 0.00024094101255154896, 0.0, 0.0030609186642959123, 0.006609748697526409, 0.0015586617948636244, 0.0027849810264750086, 0.031751056128946784, 0.011911759425241326, 1.4275556309515223, 0.019944897468014394, 0.3245661302487998, 0.3838955848199881, 21.91090675818042 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.52110837616761, "coverage": 0.9998740646330921, "baseline_score": 85.60579143606785, "spot_peer_score": 13.893488928174282, "peer_archived_score": 16.52110837616761, "baseline_archived_score": 85.60579143606785, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.893488928174282 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711659785.98163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711659785.98163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0038649122544202053, 0.9961350877455798 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 658, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-earnings-after-parabolic-stock-rally.html). The stock is up [approximately 41% year-to-date as of February 21, 2024](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjVr6qM8LyEAxWY5MkDHRwNC4UQ3ecFegQIahAf&window=YTD).\n\nAs of February 21 the website [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) shows Nvidia as the sixth ranked company globally by [market capitalization](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp), which is the total dollar value of outstanding shares of the company's stock. Nvidia trails Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Saudi Aramco, Apple, and Microsoft." }, { "id": 21487, "title": "Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?", "short_title": "Nikki Haley Ends Campaign Before Mid-March?", "url_title": "Nikki Haley Ends Campaign Before Mid-March?", "slug": "nikki-haley-ends-campaign-before-mid-march", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-21T16:25:37.282499Z", "published_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.758696Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-06T15:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 143, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21487, "title": "Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-02-21T16:25:37.282499Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-24T18:33:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-24T18:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-06T15:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-06T15:03:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nikki Haley remains the only major candidate opposing Donald Trump for the nomination to be the Republican Party's candidate for president in the 2024 US election. As of February 21, 2024, [political analysis website 538 shows](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/) Haley with a primary polling average of 17.1% compared to Trump's 77.7%.\n\nDespite trailing Trump in both polls and [delegates from the first three states](https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/#), as recently as February 20 Haley has [said she's staying in the race](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/haley-shes-dropping-feel-kiss-ring-trump/story?id=107370200). However, it is unclear how long she'll continue to campaign. The next primary to occur will be South Carolina on February 24, where [Haley was governor for six years](https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-republican-primary-what-to-expect-5b8ea70466d4ff1505ffe32633e11b0a). [Super Tuesday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday), when a number of states hold their primaries on the same day, is also [coming up on March 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Primaries_and_caucus_calendar).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 15, 2024, Nikki Haley officially announces that she has ended or suspended her campaign to be the 2024 Republican Party nominee for the US presidency.", "fine_print": "* Ending or suspending her campaign for any reason, even temporarily, will result in the question resolving as **Yes**.", "post_id": 21487, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709737254.663841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709737254.663841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9276869420459858 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.021028255724261806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002584403006121208, 0.034876728544851916, 0.0003955809486523242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250127172825864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05504182005033924, 0.08011600668955456, 0.00021895753899009755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016064219242832752, 0.0, 0.07602453099996802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04144879969549453, 0.0, 0.000349760912830967, 0.0, 0.0006976137443144507, 0.1938535790832784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047412534083157445, 0.014812349052509924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060001502701895235, 0.5428891709680974, 0.013882655896015577, 0.016041862390311655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10825423188116148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16781198632508043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004471731298889326, 0.008471355570313421, 0.0, 0.019056277158089226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03468222031333533, 0.0, 0.0495220378162985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6601974204256359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1152903243998369, 0.0, 0.2932952133851772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1411036230743147, 0.11820045430862186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4867038393042677, 0.06592580740887077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8878448516018584, 0.3193055119804197, 0.6410889167532738, 0.010651417937626811, 16.834726805810668 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.878040664290943, "coverage": 0.6102617260022678, "baseline_score": 19.23490495957157, "spot_peer_score": 39.958675077344175, "peer_archived_score": 17.878040664290943, "baseline_archived_score": 19.23490495957157, "spot_peer_archived_score": 39.958675077344175 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709737254.701165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709737254.701165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03406662550435946, 0.9659333744956405 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 395, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nikki Haley remains the only major candidate opposing Donald Trump for the nomination to be the Republican Party's candidate for president in the 2024 US election. As of February 21, 2024, [political analysis website 538 shows](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/) Haley with a primary polling average of 17.1% compared to Trump's 77.7%.\n\nDespite trailing Trump in both polls and [delegates from the first three states](https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/#), as recently as February 20 Haley has [said she's staying in the race](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/haley-shes-dropping-feel-kiss-ring-trump/story?id=107370200). However, it is unclear how long she'll continue to campaign. The next primary to occur will be South Carolina on February 24, where [Haley was governor for six years](https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-republican-primary-what-to-expect-5b8ea70466d4ff1505ffe32633e11b0a). [Super Tuesday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday), when a number of states hold their primaries on the same day, is also [coming up on March 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Primaries_and_caucus_calendar)." }, { "id": 21486, "title": "Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "short_title": "Neutral Gold Medals in 2024 Olympics", "url_title": "Neutral Gold Medals in 2024 Olympics", "slug": "neutral-gold-medals-in-2024-olympics", "author_id": 131932, "author_username": "freelancejosh93", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111743, "username": "NathanpmYoung" } ], "created_at": "2024-02-21T11:25:59.836187Z", "published_at": "2024-04-03T16:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.661474Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-03T16:34:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T13:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-03T16:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21486, "title": "Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-02-21T11:25:59.836187Z", "open_time": "2024-04-03T16:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-06T16:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-06T16:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T13:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-12T13:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As per the Olympic Committee’s [recommendations](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024) from earlier this year, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as they do so as so-called \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" (AINs), without an accompanying national flag or anthem.\n\nThe Russian Federation/Russian Olympic Committee has won an average of 19 gold medals in the last 3 Olympic Games, and Belarus has averaged 1.7.", "resolution_criteria": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Individual Neutral Athletes collectively win 21 or more gold medals at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The source of resolution will be the official medal tally published by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if such reporting from the IOC is unavailable. Otherwise the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nIn the event that Individual Neutral Athletes are confirmed to have won 21 or more gold medals prior to the end of the Games, the market will resolve immediately to \"Yes\".", "fine_print": "This question is Annulled if the 2024 Summer Olympics is postponed past 2024 or otherwise cancelled.", "post_id": 21486, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723297296.193094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723297296.193094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008020723817793758 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.875452306004232, 3.1566344323518334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.059782377830796374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"latest": { "start_time": 1723362308.435726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As per the Olympic Committee’s [recommendations](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024) from earlier this year, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as they do so as so-called \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" (AINs), without an accompanying national flag or anthem.\n\nThe Russian Federation/Russian Olympic Committee has won an average of 19 gold medals in the last 3 Olympic Games, and Belarus has averaged 1.7." }, { "id": 21485, "title": "Will there be a Super Bowl 100 before 2076?", "short_title": "Super Bowl 100 Before 2076?", "url_title": "Super Bowl 100 Before 2076?", "slug": "super-bowl-100-before-2076", "author_id": 115097, "author_username": "cakridge2", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-21T03:50:59.485028Z", "published_at": "2024-04-09T16:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T00:56:52.868701Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-09T16:56:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2076-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-09T16:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21485, "title": "Will there be a Super Bowl 100 before 2076?", "created_at": "2024-02-21T03:50:59.485028Z", "open_time": "2024-04-09T16:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-12T16:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-12T16:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2076-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2076-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Super Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) is the annual championship game of the NFL, played between each season's AFC and NFC conference champions. It has been played since 1967 and gained its name the next year. Since then, it has become an American media powerhouse, making up 9 out of the 10 of the [most watched television programs in American history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-watched_television_broadcasts#United_States), all since 2011.\n\nThe most recent Super Bowl was #58, and while it seems like this media juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down, things may change over the decades. The 100th Super Bowl would be played, assuming no schedule changes, in 2067, but many things might change in the next 43 years. On-field safety might be the wedge that kills the popularity of the NFL, or new players may not be good enough to command media attention, or maybe it quietly fades in popularity with no real cause.\n\nWill there be a 100th Super Bowl?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves yes if there is a 100th occurrence of the NFL championship game before January 1, 2076. This resolves yes even if that 100th occurrence was renamed from the Super Bowl, but does not resolve yes if the NFL decides to skip a bunch of numbers for some reason. There must be 100 occurrences of the game.\n\nCurrently, the Super Bowl is the game where the champions of the AFC and the NFC play to determine the overall champion. However, if this format changes or the league is restructured, this question still considers the final champion-deciding game of the season to count toward resolution. Do note that this is not retroactive - NFL championship games before the Super Bowl era do not count toward the total of 100, otherwise we'd be at about 90 of them already.\n\nSpecifically, any games count *at the moment of the first play*. The game doesn't have to finish, but it does have to start.\n\nIf any Super Bowl is canceled for some reason, this resolves yes if the Super Bowl continues afterward and reaches 100 occurrences before January 1, 2076, but does not resolve yes if the 100th Super Bowl is not reached.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21485, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760576202.155917, "end_time": 1875922832.06298, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9598590136 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760576202.155917, "end_time": 1875922832.06298, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9598590136 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.7656598507757418 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289481.581182, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289481.581182, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.15729069658985406, 0.8427093034101459 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Super Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) is the annual championship game of the NFL, played between each season's AFC and NFC conference champions. It has been played since 1967 and gained its name the next year. Since then, it has become an American media powerhouse, making up 9 out of the 10 of the [most watched television programs in American history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-watched_television_broadcasts#United_States), all since 2011.\n\nThe most recent Super Bowl was #58, and while it seems like this media juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down, things may change over the decades. The 100th Super Bowl would be played, assuming no schedule changes, in 2067, but many things might change in the next 43 years. On-field safety might be the wedge that kills the popularity of the NFL, or new players may not be good enough to command media attention, or maybe it quietly fades in popularity with no real cause.\n\nWill there be a 100th Super Bowl?" }, { "id": 21471, "title": "Will Yulia Navalnaya ever become president or prime minister of Russia?", "short_title": "Will Yulia Navalnaya be head of Russia?", "url_title": "Will Yulia Navalnaya be head of Russia?", "slug": "will-yulia-navalnaya-be-head-of-russia", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-19T19:51:11.718041Z", "published_at": "2024-02-25T02:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-30T21:27:03.102813Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-25T02:59:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21471, "title": "Will Yulia Navalnaya ever become president or prime minister of Russia?", "created_at": "2024-02-19T19:51:11.718041Z", "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-28T02:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-28T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There is historical precedent in widows of opposition figures rising to become leaders of their countries, such as Corazon Aquino of the Philippines or Violeta Chamorro of Nicaragua. On February 19, 2024, following the assassination of her husband Alexei Navalny, Yulia Navalnaya released a Youtube [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIrYWhjdK_o) in which she said, “I will continue the work of Alexei Navalny. I will continue to fight for our country.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Alexei Navalny, assumes the position of head of state or head of government of Russia within her natural lifetime. According to the Protocol and Liaison Service of the United Nations at its [web page](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa), the current official names of these titles are “President of the Russian Federation” and “Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.” However, this will also resolve based on any successor titles for head of state or head of government, provided they are recognized as such by the UN or its successor organization.\n\nThe question will resolve as No if Yulia Navalnaya has legally died (as determined by an entity with the authority to make such a ruling) or if she has not assumed the position of head of state or head of government before the year 2100.\n\nIf the nation-state of Russia ceases to exist, the question will resolve as Yes based on whether Yulia Navalnaya becomes the head of state or head of government of the internationally-recognized successor state that retains the largest percentage of the city limits of Moscow within its borders.\n\nResolution will be based on [credible media reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) as determined by Metaculus admins. 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I will continue to fight for our country.”" }, { "id": 21469, "title": "Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?", "short_title": "NATO Member Calls for Hungary's Expulsion", "url_title": "NATO Member Calls for Hungary's Expulsion", "slug": "nato-member-calls-for-hungarys-expulsion", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-19T17:11:44.255889Z", "published_at": "2024-02-21T18:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.608237Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-21T18:26:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:11:44.255000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:11:44.255000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:11:44.255000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-21T18:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21469, "title": "Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-02-19T17:11:44.255889Z", "open_time": "2024-02-21T18:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-24T18:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-24T18:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:11:44.255000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T21:15:09.404551Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:11:44.255000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:11:44.255000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Though it does not contain an explicit procedure for expulsion, according to an [analysis by Just Security](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/) NATO member states can by unanimous agreement, effectively expel a member state for material breach of the treaty:\n\nShould the conditions for the existence of a material breach be satisfied, NATO’s member states would be entitled, by unanimous agreement, to suspend the operation of the treaty in whole or in part or to terminate it either in their relations with the defaulting state or among them all (Article 60(2) of the Vienna Convention). For these purposes, a unanimous decision of the North Atlantic Council, excluding the defaulting state, would suffice. No further procedural requirements apply, including those laid down in Article 65 of the Vienna Convention.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if at least one head of state or head of government in a NATO member country calls for Hungary to be expelled from NATO, at any time from question launch until end of day, December 31, 2024. This does not need to occur through a formal legal process or through the invocation of Article 60(2).\n\nThis question will resolve based on reputable media reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21469, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654925.539264, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654925.539264, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.009274159675342614 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.065157151793947, 3.9784889483244172, 0.13445499591932575, 0.34110572456598853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.75248012384485, "peer_score": 7.424895204373663, "coverage": 0.9995769947622013, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9995769947622013, "spot_peer_score": 16.969469579761366, "spot_baseline_score": 95.60566524124029, "baseline_archived_score": 97.75248012384485, "peer_archived_score": 7.424895204373663, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.969469579761366, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 95.60566524124029 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290065.085612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290065.085612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Though it does not contain an explicit procedure for expulsion, according to an [analysis by Just Security](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/) NATO member states can by unanimous agreement, effectively expel a member state for material breach of the treaty:\n\nShould the conditions for the existence of a material breach be satisfied, NATO’s member states would be entitled, by unanimous agreement, to suspend the operation of the treaty in whole or in part or to terminate it either in their relations with the defaulting state or among them all (Article 60(2) of the Vienna Convention). For these purposes, a unanimous decision of the North Atlantic Council, excluding the defaulting state, would suffice. 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One of their key demands is to expand the [Minimum Support Price](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_support_price_(India)) (MSP), the price that the government recommends each year for a specified number of crops in order to ensure a minimum profit for farmers.\n\nThis protest follows a previous farmer protest that happened in [2020 and 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Indian_farmers%27_protest), which in the end resulted in Prime Minister Modi [withdrawing the agricultural laws that triggered the protests](https://apnews.com/article/business-india-new-delhi-narendra-modi-2bfb76c9d3c0246896425461166078b5). The Indian general elections are scheduled to be held [between April and May 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_general_election). With the elections drawing near the farmer protests may become a significant issue.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, credible sources report that India has enacted a law that expands the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for crops.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, an expanded MSP would include new legal guarantees of minimum prices for crops not currently covered by a legal MSP. or a new law that would result in increases to the MSP paid (on average).\n * The law need not directly specify an increased price for the MSP, a revised formula that credible sources report would result in a higher MSP is also sufficient.\n* This question requires the enactment of a law that expands the MSP, a policy change or announcement of price increases (such as by the [Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs](http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php/Cabinet_Committee_on_Economic_Affairs_(CCEA))) without the enactment of such a law would result in the question resolving as **No**.\n* An MSP law need not meet the protesters demands, the question will resolve as **Yes** so long as the MSP is legally expanded as defined in these criteria.", "post_id": 21439, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711887298.257211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.022 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711887298.257211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.022 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.040009843911759074 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.372358117831899, 4.713227623731724, 0.5809846769925888, 0.22572781522990096, 0.012659848026058247, 2.00938502972171, 0.7336339070228796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02078240075915524, 0.005712198004389287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09931121343223279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04266053803278052, 0.0033424547903668812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01642407509832791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9467522735592828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002884145530320797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007280827884852904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007233580027534778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028439359257530537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020659045864389524, 0.0, 0.001770091099343005, 0.0, 0.0021014002097153586, 0.0024716391381802813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002190681676036258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004411705175538277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018892335520048254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004303387677233397 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.606573370705114, "coverage": 0.9999987754320971, "baseline_score": 32.51037290681145, "spot_peer_score": 2.6027312699000995, "peer_archived_score": 22.606573370705114, "baseline_archived_score": 32.51037290681145, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.6027312699000995 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711887298.302181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711887298.302181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 474, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Indian farmers are marching on Delhi in protest](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-68271364) as they attempt to persuade the government to meet [their demands](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/13/india-farmers-march-what-are-their-demands-why-is-govt-blocking-roads) for better pay. One of their key demands is to expand the [Minimum Support Price](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_support_price_(India)) (MSP), the price that the government recommends each year for a specified number of crops in order to ensure a minimum profit for farmers.\n\nThis protest follows a previous farmer protest that happened in [2020 and 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Indian_farmers%27_protest), which in the end resulted in Prime Minister Modi [withdrawing the agricultural laws that triggered the protests](https://apnews.com/article/business-india-new-delhi-narendra-modi-2bfb76c9d3c0246896425461166078b5). The Indian general elections are scheduled to be held [between April and May 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_general_election). 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the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?", "created_at": "2024-02-14T17:29:39.434278Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-16T15:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-16T15:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-13T02:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-13T02:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-13T02:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-11T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel)l on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand killed, and hundreds kidnapped.\n\nThe invasion was initially limited to Northern Gaza, but the plans were gradually expanded further South. Recently, Israel has [stated its intentions to expand its invasion to the Southern city of Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), which borders Egypt. These expansion plans, like prior ones, have seen widespread condemnation from both pro and anti-Israeli nations. This condemnation is primarily based on the alarming number of deaths and casualties stemming from the ground invasion; the growing humanitarian crisis, which has become more acute as the Israeli invasion has expanded; and the vast number of Palestinian refugees which are reportedly taking refuge in the city having fled from Northern Gaza.\n\nIsrael has already [commenced airstrikes and covert raids in Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), but a full-scale ground invasion has yet to commence.\n\nAmongst the nations who have condemned the plans are the US - Israel's closest ally - and Egypt - Gaza's Southern neighbour who has threatened to break it's 45 year old peace treaty with Israel if the ground invasion plans commence in Rafah.\n\nWill Israel expand its ground offensive to Rafah by the first day of Ramadan?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1VCJMA9AH4k8G6v33Yr6z254_umiNe4Q&ehbc=2E312F\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"}}>\n</iframe>", "fine_print": "* Israeli military operations will be considered to be both of the following, or any similar entries added to the map:\n * \"Reported Israeli clearing operations\"\n * \"Claimed furthest Israeli advances\"\n* If Metaculus has reason to believe that the ISW map is no longer being updated or maintained the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 21438, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710154320.618915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], 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Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel)l on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand killed, and hundreds kidnapped.\n\nThe invasion was initially limited to Northern Gaza, but the plans were gradually expanded further South. Recently, Israel has [stated its intentions to expand its invasion to the Southern city of Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), which borders Egypt. These expansion plans, like prior ones, have seen widespread condemnation from both pro and anti-Israeli nations. This condemnation is primarily based on the alarming number of deaths and casualties stemming from the ground invasion; the growing humanitarian crisis, which has become more acute as the Israeli invasion has expanded; and the vast number of Palestinian refugees which are reportedly taking refuge in the city having fled from Northern Gaza.\n\nIsrael has already [commenced airstrikes and covert raids in Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), but a full-scale ground invasion has yet to commence.\n\nAmongst the nations who have condemned the plans are the US - Israel's closest ally - and Egypt - Gaza's Southern neighbour who has threatened to break it's 45 year old peace treaty with Israel if the ground invasion plans commence in Rafah.\n\nWill Israel expand its ground offensive to Rafah by the first day of Ramadan?" }, { "id": 21418, "title": "Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?", "short_title": "SCOTUS grants cert in Trump immunity?", "url_title": "SCOTUS grants cert in Trump immunity?", "slug": "scotus-grants-cert-in-trump-immunity", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-09T16:21:00.627773Z", "published_at": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.814071Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-28T22:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-28T22:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[United States of America v. Donald J. Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)?useskin=vector) is a pending federal criminal case in which former president Donald Trump is accused of, among other things, obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy to defraud the United States, in connection with his alleged participation in attempts to circumvent or overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. \n\nTrump filed [a motion to dismiss](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148.74.0_1.pdf) the indictment against him in this case on the basis that as president, he enjoyed absolute immunity for criminal acts performed within the \"outer perimeter\" of his official responsibility. This argument was [rejected by the trial judge](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67598948) in December 2023, and on appeal, [rejected](https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/1AC5A0E7090A350785258ABB0052D942/$file/23-3228-2039001.pdf) by a three-judge panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on February 6 2024.\n\nTrump may appeal to the Supreme Court of the United States by filing a [petition for a writ of certiorari.](https://www.uscourts.gov/about-federal-courts/educational-resources/about-educational-outreach/activity-resources/supreme-1) Supreme Court rules require that at least four of the nine Justices vote in favour of granting a writ of cert in order for the Court to hear an appeal. The Supreme Court typically agrees to hear only about 2% of the cases it is petitioned to hear appeals in each year.\n\nTrump has been [directed](https://i0.wp.com/www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/dc-court-mandate.png?w=634&ssl=1) to file an application for a stay of the mandate pending the filing of a petition for a writ of cert in this case on or before February 12, or else jurisdiction will return to the trial court and pre-trial processes, suspended since Trump's initial appeal was filed in December, may resume.\n\nWhether the Supreme Court agrees to hear an appeal has [significant implications](https://www.justsecurity.org/91837/how-long-will-trumps-immunity-appeal-take-analyzing-the-alternative-timelines/) for the timing of Trump's trial in this case, even if Trump's assertion of immunity is ultimately rejected. If the Supreme Court does not agree to hear an appeal, it is highly likely that Trump will face trial in this matter before the presidential election. If it does agree to hear an appeal, whether Trump is tried before the election in this matter will likely hinge on the timetable the Court sets for briefing and argument, and how long it takes the Court to deliver its opinion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern on April 1, 2024, the Supreme Court of the United States has granted a petition for a writ of certiorari for Donald Trump to appeal the issue of presidential immunity, or otherwise agreed to hear Trump's appeal on the matter. The question will resolve as **No** if that has not happened, including if the Supreme Court is still considering at that time whether to grant the writ of cert, or if no petition has been filed; or if the Supreme Court denies Trump cert on this matter.\n\nThis question only requires that the Supreme Court issue a writ of cert, or to agree to hear the appeal. There is no requirement that the appeal actually be heard or any briefing in the case be submitted before April 1.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21418, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709148046.081485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709148046.081485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3596187396761074 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.03300920416665456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2144400238150099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7969517835641337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20027086012739792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8154708187101596, 0.0, 0.3191073460209369, 0.0, 0.3460958235612207, 0.8631459651721702, 0.0, 0.03950452060911081, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5620134686278018, 0.0, 0.46572683269050547, 1.5619557289892199, 0.2336255175677695, 0.01129410872947152, 1.0056099300419545, 0.12174039221355969, 0.0, 0.010788274017922025, 0.6709726254684039, 0.009624026793463998, 0.027414264600835975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35275129617372647, 0.0, 0.22946702763934312, 0.2622754525086275, 0.0, 1.6559118371095036, 0.006636231172708202, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.18691676533295776, 0.016699727217022405, 0.009604210045876128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5590197058964325, 0.05696792407488039, 0.0, 0.906574082945611, 0.0, 0.6689378802190041, 0.015028924156914286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002334944183173679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020459340993510003, 0.0, 0.004409064241487278, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.012614003841411437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.644652952505466, "coverage": 0.29300689980048933, "baseline_score": -8.436411177260934, "spot_peer_score": 22.05315272601589, "peer_archived_score": 0.644652952505466, "baseline_archived_score": -8.436411177260934, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.05315272601589 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709148046.124741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709148046.124741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8340050668961075, 0.16599493310389246 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 202, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[United States of America v. Donald J. Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)?useskin=vector) is a pending federal criminal case in which former president Donald Trump is accused of, among other things, obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy to defraud the United States, in connection with his alleged participation in attempts to circumvent or overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. \n\nTrump filed [a motion to dismiss](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148.74.0_1.pdf) the indictment against him in this case on the basis that as president, he enjoyed absolute immunity for criminal acts performed within the \"outer perimeter\" of his official responsibility. This argument was [rejected by the trial judge](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67598948) in December 2023, and on appeal, [rejected](https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/1AC5A0E7090A350785258ABB0052D942/$file/23-3228-2039001.pdf) by a three-judge panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on February 6 2024.\n\nTrump may appeal to the Supreme Court of the United States by filing a [petition for a writ of certiorari.](https://www.uscourts.gov/about-federal-courts/educational-resources/about-educational-outreach/activity-resources/supreme-1) Supreme Court rules require that at least four of the nine Justices vote in favour of granting a writ of cert in order for the Court to hear an appeal. The Supreme Court typically agrees to hear only about 2% of the cases it is petitioned to hear appeals in each year.\n\nTrump has been [directed](https://i0.wp.com/www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/dc-court-mandate.png?w=634&ssl=1) to file an application for a stay of the mandate pending the filing of a petition for a writ of cert in this case on or before February 12, or else jurisdiction will return to the trial court and pre-trial processes, suspended since Trump's initial appeal was filed in December, may resume.\n\nWhether the Supreme Court agrees to hear an appeal has [significant implications](https://www.justsecurity.org/91837/how-long-will-trumps-immunity-appeal-take-analyzing-the-alternative-timelines/) for the timing of Trump's trial in this case, even if Trump's assertion of immunity is ultimately rejected. If the Supreme Court does not agree to hear an appeal, it is highly likely that Trump will face trial in this matter before the presidential election. If it does agree to hear an appeal, whether Trump is tried before the election in this matter will likely hinge on the timetable the Court sets for briefing and argument, and how long it takes the Court to deliver its opinion." }, { "id": 21406, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?", "short_title": "Chiefs win Super Bowl 58", "url_title": "Chiefs win Super Bowl 58", "slug": "chiefs-win-super-bowl-58", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-08T16:23:49.108362Z", "published_at": "2024-02-08T19:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.268292Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-08T19:58:19.447735Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-12T03:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-12T03:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-08T19:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21406, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?", "created_at": "2024-02-08T16:23:49.108362Z", "open_time": "2024-02-08T19:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-09T03:22:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-09T03:22:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-12T03:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-12T03:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-12T03:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-11T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-11T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Super Bowl LVIII](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVIII) is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of [Super Bowl LIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIV) (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.\n\nMetaculus has predicted in a variety of domains but can Metaculus do well at sports? [Closing odds on the Buccaneers to win Super Bowl LV were 41%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6393/buccaneers-win-super-bowl-lv/), and the Bucs went on to win the game.\n\nThe 49ers are favorites by 2 points.\n\nWill the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if the Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII, per credible media reporting. If the 49ers win, it resolves as NO.", "fine_print": "If the game is cancelled or otherwise is unable to finish to completion by the following day, this question resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 21406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1707677360.254374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1707677360.254374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.5099034528930927 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5813794188152445, 2.456908449383538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 1.242136156752826, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.46968204525681123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7080730986362569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9142125057487235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -6.887974184438735, "coverage": 0.991579841400041, "baseline_score": 2.8492143895655033, "spot_peer_score": -12.569856824274737, "peer_archived_score": -6.887974184438735, "baseline_archived_score": 2.8492143895655033, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.569856824274737 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1707677360.283052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1707677360.283052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6840647187452622, 0.31593528125473785 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Super Bowl LVIII](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVIII) is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of [Super Bowl LIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIV) (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.\n\nMetaculus has predicted in a variety of domains but can Metaculus do well at sports? [Closing odds on the Buccaneers to win Super Bowl LV were 41%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6393/buccaneers-win-super-bowl-lv/), and the Bucs went on to win the game.\n\nThe 49ers are favorites by 2 points.\n\nWill the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?" }, { "id": 21405, "title": "Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?", "short_title": "Ariel Henry Out as Acting PM by April?", "url_title": "Ariel Henry Out as Acting PM by April?", "slug": "ariel-henry-out-as-acting-pm-by-april", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-08T16:10:10.737662Z", "published_at": "2024-02-09T18:09:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.171834Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-09T18:09:00Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-11T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Ariel Henry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariel_Henry) has been Acting Prime Minister of Haiti since he was [appointed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57910829) by former president [Jovenel Moïse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jovenel_Mo%C3%AFse), who was assassinated on July 7, 2021, shortly after appointing Henry.\n\nGang violence and political instability have disrupted Haiti in recent years. Elections have repeatedly been cancelled due to instability following the last national elections in 2016, and [no elected officials remain in government](https://www.npr.org/2023/01/18/1149556481/haiti-last-elected-official-political-crisis). Frustrations have culminated in [recent protests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68239332), as February 7, 2024, was the day that the new government [would have been sworn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Haitian_general_election#:~:text=On%2021%20December%202022%2C%20Henry%20signed%20an%20agreement%20with%20political%20parties%2C%20civil%20society%20organizations%20and%20private%20sector%20members%20to%20hold%20the%20elections%20in%202023%2C%20with%20the%20new%20government%20scheduled%20to%20be%20sworn%20in%20on%207%20February%202024.) in following the most recent cancelled election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, Ariel Henry is no longer the Acting Prime Minister or Primer Minister of Haiti, for any reason.", "fine_print": "* To resolve as **Yes** Ariel Henry must neither be the acting or permanent prime minister of Haiti, his title changing from Acting Prime Minister to Prime Minister is not sufficient.\n* If Ariel Henry is no longer able to exercise his authority as Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister, such as in the case where he flees the country or is deposed in a coup, this question will also resolve as **Yes**. If the circumstances are difficult to discern, Metaculus may use the available information to make a determination or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 21405, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710365553.33395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710365553.33395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9189156956300332 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5733457052776447, 0.00022111209728182583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036818570511483904, 0.0006618547477705139, 0.00016090796494774804, 0.0012497772419926385, 0.0, 0.004065232908961646, 0.0, 0.002334179978709882, 0.00641015356332571, 0.0, 0.012276217918119923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0047336436668202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002890555814196455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004260043935447174, 0.0, 0.005805836553457768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007857345343876863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012844412043869005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029728711458096302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038245446286032047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0077707472895727076, 0.0, 0.03204264418412277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03992756526622757, 0.0, 0.9611697305973533, 0.003790670974730546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02755825804385377, 0.027135907111024364, 0.03713345496249917, 0.0, 0.05298274342702911, 0.0, 0.6353801166672093, 0.0, 0.04289965199472163, 0.2834563466399075, 0.0, 0.06955922078988591, 0.010243343466511347, 0.012224307168577479, 0.0, 0.023617499732215674, 0.3805401730816387, 0.9057282670029041, 0.0, 0.021832922439402977, 0.0, 1.2559444982662447, 0.060784385723977465, 1.2679028943180781, 0.9969682169271136, 10.978664753661306 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.592555593978137, "coverage": 0.6025560571986609, "baseline_score": -75.34905077895694, "spot_peer_score": 43.08158206393162, "peer_archived_score": 19.592555593978137, "baseline_archived_score": -75.34905077895694, "spot_peer_archived_score": 43.08158206393162 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710142505.332295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710142505.332295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3341782024446772, 0.6658217975553228 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 508, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Ariel Henry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariel_Henry) has been Acting Prime Minister of Haiti since he was [appointed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57910829) by former president [Jovenel Moïse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jovenel_Mo%C3%AFse), who was assassinated on July 7, 2021, shortly after appointing Henry.\n\nGang violence and political instability have disrupted Haiti in recent years. Elections have repeatedly been cancelled due to instability following the last national elections in 2016, and [no elected officials remain in government](https://www.npr.org/2023/01/18/1149556481/haiti-last-elected-official-political-crisis). Frustrations have culminated in [recent protests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68239332), as February 7, 2024, was the day that the new government [would have been sworn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Haitian_general_election#:~:text=On%2021%20December%202022%2C%20Henry%20signed%20an%20agreement%20with%20political%20parties%2C%20civil%20society%20organizations%20and%20private%20sector%20members%20to%20hold%20the%20elections%20in%202023%2C%20with%20the%20new%20government%20scheduled%20to%20be%20sworn%20in%20on%207%20February%202024.) in following the most recent cancelled election." }, { "id": 21394, "title": "Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?", "short_title": "Data Cables Damaged in the Red Sea?", "url_title": "Data Cables Damaged in the Red Sea?", "slug": "data-cables-damaged-in-the-red-sea", "author_id": 144022, "author_username": "Langley", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?", "created_at": "2024-02-06T11:12:39.884192Z", "open_time": "2024-02-08T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-11T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-15T20:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-15T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-15T20:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-14T22:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-14T22:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, 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A network of cables, which transfers approximately [17 percent](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/houthis-may-sabotage-western-internet-cables-in-red-sea-yemen-telecoms-firms-warn) of global internet data, is located at the bottom of the Red Sea.\n\nRecently a Houthi-aligned Telegram channel pointed this out in an indirect threat. Yemen’s General Telecommunications Company has subsequently [warned](https://www.mofa-ye.org/Pages/25833/) about the danger. However, similar threats were previously raised in late [December](https://www.memri.org/jttm/veiled-threat-telegram-channels-linked-houthi-ansar-allah-movement-point-submarine-internet), but have not brought significant attention due to a focus on the dangers to international shipping.\n\nWhile these cables are supposed to be unreachable without high-tech equipment such as advanced submarines, in some places the sea floor is only a depth of around [100 metres](https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/could-the-houthis-sabotage-international-internet-cables-in-the-red-sea/?cf-view). Such locations might therefore allow a potential saboteur to reach the cables even without equipment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 15, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that data cable infrastructure in the Red Sea has suffered damage caused by a hostile actor.", "fine_print": "Only sabotage and similar violent attacks (it does not have to be specifically attributed to the Houthis) against the infrastructure will count. 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A network of cables, which transfers approximately [17 percent](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/houthis-may-sabotage-western-internet-cables-in-red-sea-yemen-telecoms-firms-warn) of global internet data, is located at the bottom of the Red Sea.\n\nRecently a Houthi-aligned Telegram channel pointed this out in an indirect threat. Yemen’s General Telecommunications Company has subsequently [warned](https://www.mofa-ye.org/Pages/25833/) about the danger. However, similar threats were previously raised in late [December](https://www.memri.org/jttm/veiled-threat-telegram-channels-linked-houthi-ansar-allah-movement-point-submarine-internet), but have not brought significant attention due to a focus on the dangers to international shipping.\n\nWhile these cables are supposed to be unreachable without high-tech equipment such as advanced submarines, in some places the sea floor is only a depth of around [100 metres](https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/could-the-houthis-sabotage-international-internet-cables-in-the-red-sea/?cf-view). Such locations might therefore allow a potential saboteur to reach the cables even without equipment." }, { "id": 21374, "title": "Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?", "short_title": "US is a NATO Member until 2029?", "url_title": "US is a NATO Member until 2029?", "slug": "us-is-a-nato-member-until-2029", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-05T04:08:43.619661Z", "published_at": "2024-02-06T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T00:08:32.530502Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-06T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-06T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21374, "title": "Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?", "created_at": "2024-02-05T04:08:43.619661Z", "open_time": "2024-02-06T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-09T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-09T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance between 31 North American and European countries. The organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party.\n\nThe US has been a member of NATO since 1949.\n\nIn January 2020, Trump said to Ursula von der Leyen that the US will not help Europe if it was attacked and that it will quit NATO, according to [a recent claim](https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-never-help-europe-under-attack-eu-official-cites-trump-saying-2024-01-10/) by Thierry Breton, a French commissioner who is responsible for the European Union's internal market. Specifically, Trump said:\n\n> You need to understand that if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you\n\n\n> By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO\n\n\n> And by the way, you owe me $400 billion, because you didn’t pay, you Germans, what you had to pay for defense\n\nNo country has ever left NATO, willingly or not, since its inception.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **No** if the US is no longer a member of NATO for any period of time before January 1, 2029, according to the [official list of members](https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html).", "fine_print": "The question resolves as **No** if NATO is disbanded before January 1, 2029.", "post_id": 21374, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762513534.486, "end_time": 1763749314.395712, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762513534.486, "end_time": 1763749314.395712, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9571233297254583 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01550349210722101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02704288263026733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09319621480989723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06805199387035807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10155422864166669, 1.0, 0.07544621294165546, 0.17573956450005151, 0.0, 0.86987323255143, 0.0, 0.0391375041447012, 0.0, 0.3929029370983973, 0.9032698758863225, 1.6771044225245137, 2.1464154491029506, 1.0234248795062346, 4.8642352261890105 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288544.487321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288544.487321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04366030926668507, 0.9563396907333149 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 240, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance between 31 North American and European countries. The organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party.\n\nThe US has been a member of NATO since 1949.\n\nIn January 2020, Trump said to Ursula von der Leyen that the US will not help Europe if it was attacked and that it will quit NATO, according to [a recent claim](https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-never-help-europe-under-attack-eu-official-cites-trump-saying-2024-01-10/) by Thierry Breton, a French commissioner who is responsible for the European Union's internal market. Specifically, Trump said:\n\n> You need to understand that if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you\n\n\n> By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO\n\n\n> And by the way, you owe me $400 billion, because you didn’t pay, you Germans, what you had to pay for defense\n\nNo country has ever left NATO, willingly or not, since its inception." }, { "id": 21363, "title": "Will current use gifts to Harvard decrease for fiscal year 2025 relative to fiscal year 2023?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-current-use-gifts-to-harvard-decrease-for-fiscal-year-2025-relative-to-fiscal-year-2023", "author_id": 159953, "author_username": "JoeParrish", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-03T20:32:56.656691Z", "published_at": "2024-03-18T20:51:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T22:29:14.402324Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-18T20:51:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T22:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-18T20:51:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21363, "title": "Will current use gifts to Harvard decrease for fiscal year 2025 relative to fiscal year 2023?", "created_at": "2024-02-03T20:32:56.656691Z", "open_time": "2024-03-18T20:51:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-21T20:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-21T20:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T22:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T22:29:14.358366Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas and subsequent counterattack by Israel, student groups began demonstrating on campuses across America. Various events on Harvard were [accused of or associated with anti-Semitism](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/10/10/psc-statement-backlash/), and the school's leadership came under scrutiny. This resulted in the [resignation of Harvard President Claudine Gay](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/02/business/claudine-gay-harvard-president-resigns/index.html) after less than a year in the role.\n\nWealthy investors and benefactors, such as Bill Ackman, have [pushed for/ threatened elimination of gifts to schools like Harvard](https://fortune.com/2023/12/13/bill-ackman-harvard-donation-coupang-antisemitism-president/), if university staff and leadership fail address what they perceive as a culture of anti-Semitism in academia.\n\nGifts for current use (as opposed to [gifts to the endowment](https://seas.harvard.edu/office-finance/accounting/current-use-gifts-and-endowments)) for fiscal year 2023 totaled $486 million. A decline of current year gifts in fiscal year 2025 might signal a successful effort by Ackman and his supporters to stem a flow of funds.\n\nHarvard's financial reports are published [here](https://finance.harvard.edu/annual-report). Its fiscal year [ends at the end of June](https://finance.fas.harvard.edu/close-fiscal-year), for example fiscal year 2023 ended at the end of June 2023. Fiscal year 2025 will end at the end of June 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, upon the release of Harvard's [official financial results](https://finance.harvard.edu/annual-report) for fiscal year 2025, the amount raised from current use gifts is reported as less than $486 million (the amount of current use gifts for fiscal year 2023).", "fine_print": "Only current use gifts will be considered, this does not include [gifts to Harvard's endowment](https://seas.harvard.edu/office-finance/accounting/current-use-gifts-and-endowments).", "post_id": 21363, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748721459.008805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.656 ], "centers": [ 0.667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748721459.008805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.656 ], "centers": [ 0.667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33299999999999996, 0.667 ], "means": [ 0.6712554366726444 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 1.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -39.26152779657378, "peer_score": 10.227145705373495, "coverage": 0.99351907310544, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99351907310544, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -39.26152779657378, "peer_archived_score": 10.227145705373495, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287689.210534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287689.210534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.44457841719475844, 0.5554215828052416 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas and subsequent counterattack by Israel, student groups began demonstrating on campuses across America. Various events on Harvard were [accused of or associated with anti-Semitism](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/10/10/psc-statement-backlash/), and the school's leadership came under scrutiny. This resulted in the [resignation of Harvard President Claudine Gay](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/02/business/claudine-gay-harvard-president-resigns/index.html) after less than a year in the role.\n\nWealthy investors and benefactors, such as Bill Ackman, have [pushed for/ threatened elimination of gifts to schools like Harvard](https://fortune.com/2023/12/13/bill-ackman-harvard-donation-coupang-antisemitism-president/), if university staff and leadership fail address what they perceive as a culture of anti-Semitism in academia.\n\nGifts for current use (as opposed to [gifts to the endowment](https://seas.harvard.edu/office-finance/accounting/current-use-gifts-and-endowments)) for fiscal year 2023 totaled $486 million. A decline of current year gifts in fiscal year 2025 might signal a successful effort by Ackman and his supporters to stem a flow of funds.\n\nHarvard's financial reports are published [here](https://finance.harvard.edu/annual-report). Its fiscal year [ends at the end of June](https://finance.fas.harvard.edu/close-fiscal-year), for example fiscal year 2023 ended at the end of June 2023. Fiscal year 2025 will end at the end of June 2025." }, { "id": 21354, "title": "Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?", "short_title": "2024 Summer Olympics Terrorist Attack", "url_title": "2024 Summer Olympics Terrorist Attack", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics-terrorist-attack", "author_id": 164263, "author_username": "TheMann", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-03T20:01:31.820118Z", "published_at": "2024-02-09T18:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.141037Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-09T18:25:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-09T18:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21354, "title": "Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-02-03T20:01:31.820118Z", "open_time": "2024-02-09T18:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-12T18:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-12T18:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The most serious attack occurred at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, Germany. Five of the hostage takers were killed, along with eleven members of the Israeli Olympic Team and one West German policeman.\nAt the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, a bombing at the Centennial Olympic Park resulted in one death and over 100 injuries. This was classified as domestic terrorism. [Centennial Olympic Park bombing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centennial_Olympic_Park_bombing)\nAt the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, a knife attack at a Beijing market left [three people dead and over 60 injured]((https://www.start.umd.edu/news/olympics-and-terrorism). Although it did not occur during the 1988 Olympics in Seoul, Korea, the bombing of Korean Air Flight 858 on November 29, 1987 was [considered to be a terrorist attack by North Korea]( https://www.history.com/news/1988-seoul-olympics-north-korea-terrorist-attack) in an attempt to get the Olympics moved from Seoul.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if a terrorist attack in [Metropolitan France](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_France) injures and/or kills at least one person, other than the terrorist(s), between, and inclusive of, the day of the Opening Ceremony (26 July 2024) and the day of the Closing Ceremony (11 August 2024). The question will resolve as No if the above does not happen.\n\nAn event will be considered a 'terrorist attack' if it is described as such by any agency of the State of France, or by the French President, Prime Minister, or a member of the Council of Ministers.", "fine_print": "1. The 'day of the Opening Ceremony' starts at 12:00:00 AM (Midnight) Paris time on 26 July 2024.\n2. The 'day of the Closing Ceremony' ends at 11:59:59 PM Paris time on 11 August 2024.\n3. The reason for including time before and after the above ceremonies is the gathering of a large number of people is a high-risk time as a terrorist event is most likely to occur outside of venues.\n4. The terrorist act can occur anywhere in [Metropolitan France](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_France). \n5. If only the terrorist(s) is injured or killed, this question will not resolve Yes. A non-terrorist must be a victim to resolve Yes.\n6. 'Terrorist attack' is not limited to any form of attack. Bomb, guns, knives, and other weapons have been used in terrorist attacks in Europe over the past 20 years.", "post_id": 21354, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723404709.637255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.124 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723404709.637255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.124 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09054647046600708 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0061954904951238, 3.9552719102127094, 0.3551877698067269, 1.3892181068168579, 0.0, 1.7000511757603705, 0.0, 0.43708213472388174, 0.8849953868387631, 0.057208863054134, 1.0153085086559235, 0.11492808191066167, 0.6466425724863939, 0.05209383699272445, 0.1711062530076502, 0.3560432436554951, 0.03367136597691028, 0.23316701369020337, 0.0, 0.12087117660761629, 0.48917350250786673, 0.4074887219478586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016194143319162562, 0.3387681937898877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48750283803233846, 0.2875923504881499, 0.0, 0.025376902702299184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025639130579011613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028558647718838943, 0.21992772921981402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06866972311929001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018250358339304155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022958310465499978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022954107348006385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005267437638703229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0044369675217058565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.076026288212258, "coverage": 0.9997804883959801, "baseline_score": 51.173663188042326, "spot_peer_score": 16.400985220290046, "peer_archived_score": 12.076026288212258, "baseline_archived_score": 51.173663188042326, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.400985220290046 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723404709.676935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723404709.676935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9933169180434811, 0.006683081956518893 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 164, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The most serious attack occurred at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, Germany. Five of the hostage takers were killed, along with eleven members of the Israeli Olympic Team and one West German policeman.\nAt the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, a bombing at the Centennial Olympic Park resulted in one death and over 100 injuries. This was classified as domestic terrorism. [Centennial Olympic Park bombing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centennial_Olympic_Park_bombing)\nAt the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, a knife attack at a Beijing market left [three people dead and over 60 injured]((https://www.start.umd.edu/news/olympics-and-terrorism). Although it did not occur during the 1988 Olympics in Seoul, Korea, the bombing of Korean Air Flight 858 on November 29, 1987 was [considered to be a terrorist attack by North Korea]( https://www.history.com/news/1988-seoul-olympics-north-korea-terrorist-attack) in an attempt to get the Olympics moved from Seoul." }, { "id": 21320, "title": "Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?", "short_title": "Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?", "url_title": "Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?", "slug": "israel-hezbollah-1000-deaths-before-2025", "author_id": 105951, "author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-02-01T14:34:48.406351Z", "published_at": "2024-02-02T14:38:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.384286Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-02T14:38:00Z", "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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"is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21320, "title": "Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-02-01T14:34:48.406351Z", "open_time": "2024-02-02T14:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-04T14:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-04T14:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:34:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T16:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-23T16:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T14:34:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-23T16:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\r\n\r\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.\r\n\r\nWe previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.", "fine_print": "* Both combatant and non-combatant deaths count toward the total.\r\n* Deaths will be summed over the entirety of the period in question.\r\n* In the event death totals are reported but it is not clear which conflict the deaths occurred in (for example, if deaths of Israeli military members are reported in total and not disaggregated between those occurring in conflict with Hamas and those occurring in conflict with Hezbollah) Metaculus may use the available estimates to make a determination whether the threshold has been met.\r\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\r\n* The median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the estimates differ substantially.", "post_id": 21320, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727108404.310736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 171, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727108404.310736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 171, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9758887143120597 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.2048080079655825e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.811604294321778e-05, 0.0, 2.4247256334214048e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1832672189128315e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007486213973474391, 0.07512451448418916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024825962187876378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03964307383229932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002311216008996748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9587306029080045e-05, 0.002150927973566818, 0.022302013009042512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009174299769727208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.7710464508203835e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002644512866526248, 0.0, 0.001714741569387518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022797352120983977, 0.0009954826852269269, 0.020195401758981237, 0.04385693325972806, 0.0, 0.065183974337343, 0.0, 0.004321597156043366, 0.0, 0.03400195976808343, 0.0, 0.03074099909129769, 0.0009222613371663977, 0.008871248287790044, 0.0, 0.3370133389794917, 0.0017205533573061596, 0.3146095631941487, 0.03967636482124723, 0.032188150896856504, 0.2076793879689318, 0.018735968170503298, 0.000415846561415746, 0.38305828609817905, 0.15360862766888383, 1.3539252926402847, 0.07467341488255437, 0.6615348074082809, 1.8905763130175655, 18.805272236727514 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.0304603356475, "coverage": 0.702806022017514, "baseline_score": -1.8675916852885344, "spot_peer_score": -35.647490392806226, "peer_archived_score": 8.0304603356475, "baseline_archived_score": -1.8675916852885344, "spot_peer_archived_score": -35.647490392806226 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727108404.379676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727108404.379676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.026098418061482054, 0.973901581938518 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 670, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\r\n\r\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.\r\n\r\nWe previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)" }, { "id": 21319, "title": "Will there be a US-China war before 2050?", "short_title": "US-China War Before 2050?", "url_title": "US-China War Before 2050?", "slug": "us-china-war-before-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-31T21:32:42.410587Z", "published_at": "2024-02-01T21:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.661211Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-01T21:34:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-01T21:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21319, "title": "Will there be a US-China war before 2050?", "created_at": "2024-01-31T21:32:42.410587Z", "open_time": "2024-02-01T21:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-04T21:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-04T21:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur before January 1, 2050, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21319, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756190910.54281, "end_time": 1783169295.174, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756190910.54281, "end_time": 1783169295.174, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.22829280685948683 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.07561306189923878, 0.6484019899789605, 0.3010722380634753, 0.01945816775464467, 0.29367946535715156, 1.596621629410633, 0.1441958114546953, 1.080422272699075, 0.025194092214829794, 0.0, 0.32783228557888233, 0.06730258227985148, 1.013621288429507, 0.6249752706799355, 0.0, 1.1760470642527783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.482133182571399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7014064565003941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09890509966589098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7170020928281433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9869690786241422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7813910202906105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2575373740337294, 0.0, 0.12082870651021416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32507244182524914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002608200027234153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288237.590291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288237.590291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9362815634781161, 0.06371843652188396 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea." } ] }
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