Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3180
{ "count": 5979, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3200", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3160", "results": [ { "id": 17772, "title": "Will Russia successfully land on the Moon with their first attempt?", "short_title": "Russia landing on Moon with the first attempt", "url_title": "Russia landing on Moon with the first attempt", "slug": "russia-landing-on-moon-with-the-first-attempt", "author_id": 110217, "author_username": "michal_dubrawski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-08T20:50:11.920912Z", "published_at": "2023-07-15T22:03:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.093323Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-15T22:03:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-20T08:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-20T08:50:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-15T22:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17772, "title": "Will Russia successfully land on the Moon with their first attempt?", "created_at": "2023-07-08T20:50:11.920912Z", "open_time": "2023-07-15T22:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-16T18:33:47.483560Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-16T18:33:47.483560Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-20T08:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-20T08:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-20T08:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Luna-25](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25) mission is a planned lunar lander mission by Roscosmos. If everything goes according to the plan it will land near the lunar south pole near the Boguslavsky crater. Luna-25 is currently scheduled to be launched in August this year. The primary mission of Luna-25 is to prove the landing technology. The mission will carry 30 kg (66 lb) of scientific instruments, including a robotic arm for soil samples and possible drilling hardware.\n\nThe first human-made object to touch the Moon was the Soviet Union's [Luna 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_2), on 13 September 1959. The final Soviet mission to the Moon was launched on Aug. 9, 1976, under the official name [Luna-24](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_24). Luna-24 became the 11th Soviet attempt to return samples of the lunar soil back to Earth with a robotic probe and the third successful mission concluding the entire program.\n\nThe USA is to date the only country which landed astronauts on the Moon, but [the last US Moon landing was 7 December 1972](https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/lunar/apolloland.html), so more than 50 years ago. NASA plans to return to the Moon have experienced delays, and [Artemis 3 mission -the first crewed Moon landing mission in Artemis programme is currently scheduled to launch in December 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3), but there are already [speculations about further delays](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-problems-delay-artemis-3-2026).\n\nIn recent years, several [countries and private companies have attempted to land softly on the moon with unmanned landers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon), but only [China has succeeded so far - for the first time on 14 December 2013 with Chang'e 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program). [Currently, China appears to be accelerating its plans to land its astronauts on the Moon by 2030](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/world/asia/china-space-moon-2030.html). India plans to give landing on the moon a second try with its [Chandrayaan 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, which [has already launched on 14 July 2023 and the landing on the Moon is planned for 23 August 2023](https://www.nalandaopenuniversity.com/chandrayaan-3-launch-date-watch-live/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Russia successfully lands on the Moon with their first attempt. As a first attempt, we count the first mission to achieve liftoff with a lunar lander on board and the stated intention to land the lander on the moon. This will be considered the \"first attempt\" even if Roscosmos decides at any point not to attempt the landing. \n\nIf there is a failure preventing liftoff from happening it will count as a failure of the mission and the question will resolve as **No** only if the spaceship or lander are destroyed or lost. If the launch is aborted or if there is a malfunction preventing the rocket from launching, but this first spaceship and first lander are intact and will be used in another launch, this next launch will still count as the first attempt. \n\nThe lander must touch the ground in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage all of its systems to the point of being inoperable. If some but not all systems are damaged during the landing, but the lander can still perform some of its tasks with its onboard equipment and Roscosmos is able to communicate with the lander after the landing, then it will qualify as a successful landing and the question will resolve **Yes**.\n\nThe landing must be confirmed by credible media sources.\n\nThis question resolves **No** if Russia’s first attempt to land on the Moon fails.", "fine_print": "In the unlikely case of Roscosmos or any Russian officials claiming that the landing was successful but this claim is being challenged by other countries' space agencies or by credible media sources, then the question will resolve ambiguously unless Metaculus Admins decide that the evidence provided by one side is proof which removes any reasonable doubt (something like NASA images of the crashed lander or images of the intact lander taken from orbit or from the surface of the Moon taken by the lander if their authenticity is independently confirmed).", "post_id": 17772, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692529101.365746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692529101.365746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05189894396744612 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.910968776959082, 6.342605526620854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2875923504881499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5177672290304445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3560425336926011, 0.0, 0.1711062530076502, 0.08934416393676485, 0.32083342832896045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15940661153461455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038921392209996956, 0.015647966249753037, 0.0, 0.1847461188535056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06272559655183406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019377820149315656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05209383699272445, 0.11627696215687117, 0.0, 0.08194978439761934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0163259603251742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03383031088652573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07106550319154113, 0.0, 0.052233954710765335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007128701647650959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04735613841724687, 0.0, 0.0061954904951238765, 0.0044369675217058565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048448954349487594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007229492341188671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0459804632972468, "coverage": 0.005552325565112167, "baseline_score": -0.1872380140680705, "spot_peer_score": 22.78815152941878, "peer_archived_score": 0.0459804632972468, "baseline_archived_score": -0.1872380140680705, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.78815152941878 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692517456.558622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692517456.558622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8265464228232404, 0.1734535771767596 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Luna-25](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25) mission is a planned lunar lander mission by Roscosmos. If everything goes according to the plan it will land near the lunar south pole near the Boguslavsky crater. Luna-25 is currently scheduled to be launched in August this year. The primary mission of Luna-25 is to prove the landing technology. The mission will carry 30 kg (66 lb) of scientific instruments, including a robotic arm for soil samples and possible drilling hardware.\n\nThe first human-made object to touch the Moon was the Soviet Union's [Luna 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_2), on 13 September 1959. The final Soviet mission to the Moon was launched on Aug. 9, 1976, under the official name [Luna-24](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_24). Luna-24 became the 11th Soviet attempt to return samples of the lunar soil back to Earth with a robotic probe and the third successful mission concluding the entire program.\n\nThe USA is to date the only country which landed astronauts on the Moon, but [the last US Moon landing was 7 December 1972](https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/lunar/apolloland.html), so more than 50 years ago. NASA plans to return to the Moon have experienced delays, and [Artemis 3 mission -the first crewed Moon landing mission in Artemis programme is currently scheduled to launch in December 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3), but there are already [speculations about further delays](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-problems-delay-artemis-3-2026).\n\nIn recent years, several [countries and private companies have attempted to land softly on the moon with unmanned landers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon), but only [China has succeeded so far - for the first time on 14 December 2013 with Chang'e 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program). [Currently, China appears to be accelerating its plans to land its astronauts on the Moon by 2030](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/world/asia/china-space-moon-2030.html). India plans to give landing on the moon a second try with its [Chandrayaan 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, which [has already launched on 14 July 2023 and the landing on the Moon is planned for 23 August 2023](https://www.nalandaopenuniversity.com/chandrayaan-3-launch-date-watch-live/)." }, { "id": 17771, "title": "Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?", "short_title": "Three Months Of Safety Evals on Gemini", "url_title": "Three Months Of Safety Evals on Gemini", "slug": "three-months-of-safety-evals-on-gemini", "author_id": 119639, "author_username": "Jide", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-08T17:57:39.433126Z", "published_at": "2023-07-19T23:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.458955Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-19T23:45:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-06T23:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-06T23:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T23:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T11:58:05.999339Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T11:58:05.999339Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17771, "title": "Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?", "created_at": "2023-07-08T17:57:39.433126Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T23:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-21T23:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-21T23:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-06T23:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-06T23:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-06T23:52:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google DeepMind is an AI lab and subsidiary of Alphabet - best known for creating AlphaGo, the first AI system to defeat a professional Go player. DeepMind is currently developing a new AI system called Gemini which CEO Demis Hassabis [claims](https://www.wired.com/story/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis-chatgpt/) will be even more capable than OpenAI’s latest state-of-the-art model, GPT-4. Gemini is still training, and is currently months away from completion according to Hassabis.\n\nRecently, OpenAI delayed releasing their new model for 6 months in order to conduct safety evaluations and risk assessments using third party auditors. They [cited](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf) “acceleration risk” - the possibility of a decline in safety standards and accelerated timelines leading to increased societal risks from AI - as a key reason for the delay and testing. They strongly encouraged other labs like DeepMind to follow their lead.\n\nIndependent groups like the Alignment Research Center (ARC) specialize in auditing and evaluating advanced AI systems to assess potentially dangerous capabilities, focusing specifically on the ability to autonomously gain resources and evade human oversight. They believe rigorous testing is necessary before models become too capable, and hope more AI labs will adopt their “red team” evaluation approach. While today’s models are not very capable on their own, ARC warns this could change quickly.\n\nGiven OpenAI’s warning about acceleration risk, their call for AI labs to delay model releases to conduct safety evaluations, and the work of groups like ARC specifically focused on auditing advanced AI for dangerous capabilities, it’s possible that DeepMind would follow their advice and conduct similar third party safety evaluations before Gemini is deployed. If DeepMind mentions giving external groups access to evaluate Gemini for safety before deployment, it would suggest they are taking OpenAI and ARC’s recommendations seriously in order to ensure their system is not able to become destructively autonomous.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively Google DeepMind issues a statement on their blog, in an official paper, or in a media statement, on or before the release of their Gemini model, mentioning that they have given one or more third parties access to Gemini for the purpose of conducting safety evaluations and risk assessments for at least 3 months.\n\nThe statement should specifically refer to evaluating Gemini's capabilities to ensure it cannot act in dangerous or destructive ways. A vague or passing mention of safety practices or ethics research in progress will not be sufficient.\n\nThe 3rd party evaluation does not need to be published in order for this question to resolve **Yes**. If no such statement is made by Google or DeepMind within 30 days of Gemini’s release, this question resolves **No.**\n\nIf Google DeepMind does not release a model called or previously referred to as “Gemini” before August 1, 2024, this question will resolve **Ambiguous**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17771, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706108374.503782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706108374.503782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.50873422247764 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47782754212721157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 1.1911861039918206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.989092659067672, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30150252539328987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16692841638394568, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23746466381188802, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.4761233785323521, "coverage": 0.45459383288737565, "baseline_score": -26.190197915007186, "spot_peer_score": 2.9947793650524552, "peer_archived_score": -0.4761233785323521, "baseline_archived_score": -26.190197915007186, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.9947793650524552 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704440719.378648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704440719.378648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7880799846865612, 0.2119200153134389 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google DeepMind is an AI lab and subsidiary of Alphabet - best known for creating AlphaGo, the first AI system to defeat a professional Go player. DeepMind is currently developing a new AI system called Gemini which CEO Demis Hassabis [claims](https://www.wired.com/story/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis-chatgpt/) will be even more capable than OpenAI’s latest state-of-the-art model, GPT-4. Gemini is still training, and is currently months away from completion according to Hassabis.\n\nRecently, OpenAI delayed releasing their new model for 6 months in order to conduct safety evaluations and risk assessments using third party auditors. They [cited](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf) “acceleration risk” - the possibility of a decline in safety standards and accelerated timelines leading to increased societal risks from AI - as a key reason for the delay and testing. They strongly encouraged other labs like DeepMind to follow their lead.\n\nIndependent groups like the Alignment Research Center (ARC) specialize in auditing and evaluating advanced AI systems to assess potentially dangerous capabilities, focusing specifically on the ability to autonomously gain resources and evade human oversight. They believe rigorous testing is necessary before models become too capable, and hope more AI labs will adopt their “red team” evaluation approach. While today’s models are not very capable on their own, ARC warns this could change quickly.\n\nGiven OpenAI’s warning about acceleration risk, their call for AI labs to delay model releases to conduct safety evaluations, and the work of groups like ARC specifically focused on auditing advanced AI for dangerous capabilities, it’s possible that DeepMind would follow their advice and conduct similar third party safety evaluations before Gemini is deployed. If DeepMind mentions giving external groups access to evaluate Gemini for safety before deployment, it would suggest they are taking OpenAI and ARC’s recommendations seriously in order to ensure their system is not able to become destructively autonomous." }, { "id": 17769, "title": "Will carbon removal be a trillion-dollar market before 2050?", "short_title": "Carbon Removal $1 Trillion Business by 2050?", "url_title": "Carbon Removal $1 Trillion Business by 2050?", "slug": "carbon-removal-1-trillion-business-by-2050", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-08T00:17:49.862620Z", "published_at": "2023-07-15T22:05:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:14:53.661766Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-15T22:05:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-15T22:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17769, "title": "Will carbon removal be a trillion-dollar market before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-07-08T00:17:49.862620Z", "open_time": "2023-07-15T22:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-17T19:15:57.813025Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-17T19:15:57.813025Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "To approach net-zero emissions, the world may need to [rapidly scale up carbon removal technologies](https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/carbon-removal/the-birth-of-the-carbon-removal-market/).\n\nOn May 21st, 2023, The Economist asked \"[Can carbon removal become a trillion-dollar business?](https://www.economist.com/business/2023/05/21/can-carbon-removal-become-a-trillion-dollar-business).\" The article reported on an analysis from ExxonMobil:\n\n> In April ExxonMobil unveiled plans for its newish low-carbon division, whose long-term goal is to offer such decarbonisation as a service for industrial customers in sectors, like steel and cement, where emissions are otherwise hard to abate. The oil giant thinks this sector could be raking in annual revenues of $6trn globally by 2050.\n\nCurrent estimates of the carbon removal market range from to [$485 million](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/04/04/2640380/0/en/Carbon-Dioxide-Removal-Market-Growing-Immensely-at-a-17-73-CAGR-from-2023-2031-Exclusive-InsightAce-Report.html) to [$5.99 billion](https://www.precedenceresearch.com/carbon-capture-and-storage-market#:~:text=The%20global%20carbon%20capture%20and%20storage%20market%20size%20was%20accounted,USD%2035.70%20billion%20by%202032.). Some analyses have concluded that a $1 trillion market is [plausible](https://greatunwind.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollar-carbon-removal).", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if two credible reports state the current size of the global carbon removal market exceeds $1 trillion in nominal US dollars, prior to January 1, 2051.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17769, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757639683.011023, "end_time": 1772974664.481241, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.173692748 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757639683.011023, "end_time": 1772974664.481241, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.173692748 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.33803019553554503 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2227017248850056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6727453189124866, 0.0, 0.6320102770210256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8190029499081288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1800454523024431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41993713135057553, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28884982192769165, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6141245200157441, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46626081915445744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40039501333452815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08236431053185626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288697.652832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288697.652832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7862590879782173, 0.21374091202178272 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "To approach net-zero emissions, the world may need to [rapidly scale up carbon removal technologies](https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/carbon-removal/the-birth-of-the-carbon-removal-market/).\n\nOn May 21st, 2023, The Economist asked \"[Can carbon removal become a trillion-dollar business?](https://www.economist.com/business/2023/05/21/can-carbon-removal-become-a-trillion-dollar-business).\" The article reported on an analysis from ExxonMobil:\n\n> In April ExxonMobil unveiled plans for its newish low-carbon division, whose long-term goal is to offer such decarbonisation as a service for industrial customers in sectors, like steel and cement, where emissions are otherwise hard to abate. The oil giant thinks this sector could be raking in annual revenues of $6trn globally by 2050.\n\nCurrent estimates of the carbon removal market range from to [$485 million](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/04/04/2640380/0/en/Carbon-Dioxide-Removal-Market-Growing-Immensely-at-a-17-73-CAGR-from-2023-2031-Exclusive-InsightAce-Report.html) to [$5.99 billion](https://www.precedenceresearch.com/carbon-capture-and-storage-market#:~:text=The%20global%20carbon%20capture%20and%20storage%20market%20size%20was%20accounted,USD%2035.70%20billion%20by%202032.). Some analyses have concluded that a $1 trillion market is [plausible](https://greatunwind.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollar-carbon-removal)." }, { "id": 17768, "title": "Will it be confirmed that Lee Harvey Oswald acted with co-conspirators in the assassination of President Kennedy before November 23, 2063?", "short_title": "JFK Conspiracy Confirmed Before a Century?", "url_title": "JFK Conspiracy Confirmed Before a Century?", "slug": "jfk-conspiracy-confirmed-before-a-century", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T23:51:55.375120Z", "published_at": "2023-08-28T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.541416Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-28T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2063-11-22T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2063-11-23T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-28T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17768, "title": "Will it be confirmed that Lee Harvey Oswald acted with co-conspirators in the assassination of President Kennedy before November 23, 2063?", "created_at": "2023-07-07T23:51:55.375120Z", "open_time": "2023-08-28T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-30T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2063-11-23T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2063-11-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2063-11-22T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US President John F. Kennedy's assassination on November 22nd, 1963 has long been the subject of numerous [conspiracy theories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy_assassination_conspiracy_theories) The [majority of Americans](http://www.gallup.com/poll/165893/majority-believe-jfk-killed-conspiracy.aspx) believe in one or more of these conspiracies, however nothing has yet been definitively proven. To this day, government records [continue to be declassified.](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/national-archives-completes-review-jfk-assassination-documents-99-publicly-available-white-house)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are official statements from the US government or a media consensus of credible allegations—before November 23nd, 2063—confirming that there was a second shooter at the scene of President Kennedy's death and that the second shooter was working with Lee Harvey Oswald, or confirming that Oswald was the lone shooter but had planned the assassination with one or more co-conspirators.\n\nA media consensus of credible allegations will be defined for the purposes of this question as reports (excluding opinion pieces) from three of the five sources listed below describing credible allegations supported by substantial evidence:\n\n* The New York Times\n* The Washington Post\n* Fox News\n* CNN\n* The New York Post", "fine_print": "* If it is confirmed that there was a second shooter but not that they were working with Oswald, the question will resolve Ambiguous.\n* Official US government statements will be considered to be those made in an official capacity on behalf of the US government or a US government agency. Remarks or statements from politicians or officials will not qualify unless they are made in an official capacity.\n* In the event one or more of the listed media sources ceases to exist or is estimated by Metaculus to reach one tenth or less of US consumers as it did in 2023 then Metaculus may replace that media source with a then-prominent credible source.", "post_id": 17768, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751767157.623092, "end_time": 1820352518.253418, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0135010872 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.124 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751767157.623092, "end_time": 1820352518.253418, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0135010872 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.124 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.1406415855271099 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9827397688071073, 1.454157525384288, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.3429345261700073, 1.2764731925229218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 1.1411358943292351, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287796.813465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287796.813465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9531294810322983, 0.04687051896770163 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US President John F. Kennedy's assassination on November 22nd, 1963 has long been the subject of numerous [conspiracy theories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy_assassination_conspiracy_theories) The [majority of Americans](http://www.gallup.com/poll/165893/majority-believe-jfk-killed-conspiracy.aspx) believe in one or more of these conspiracies, however nothing has yet been definitively proven. To this day, government records [continue to be declassified.](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/national-archives-completes-review-jfk-assassination-documents-99-publicly-available-white-house)" }, { "id": 17767, "title": "Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?", "short_title": "Luna-25 launched before September 2, 2023", "url_title": "Luna-25 launched before September 2, 2023", "slug": "luna-25-launched-before-september-2-2023", "author_id": 110217, "author_username": "michal_dubrawski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T22:25:01.271278Z", "published_at": "2023-07-10T12:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.439676Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-10T12:47:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-10T23:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-10T23:10:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-10T12:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17767, "title": "Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-07T22:25:01.271278Z", "open_time": "2023-07-10T12:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-12T09:35:59.747670Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-12T09:35:59.747670Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-10T23:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-10T23:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-10T23:10:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Luna-25](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25) is a planned lunar lander mission by the Russian space agency Roscosmos. If it succeeds, it will land in the lunar South Pole region near the Boguslavsky crater. \n\nAs [the Russian-language Wikipedia article about Luna-25](https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B0-25) says (translation by Google Translate):\n\n>The purpose of this project is to launch an automatic probe, the orbital part of which should carry out remote research and select suitable sites for subsequent descent vehicles, and the lander will explore the surface in the South Pole region , including cryogenic drilling to a depth of two meters (the main task is to search for water ).\n\nLuna-25 is the first lunar mission by Russia after the Soviet times. The last in the series of pioneering Soviet robotic lunar missions was Luna-24, which sent about 170 grams of moon material back to Earth in 1976. \n\nLuna-25 will launch atop a [Soyuz-2.1b rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz-2), which in recent years has been very reliable.\n\nThe mission is currently set to launch from [Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostochny_Cosmodrome) on [August 11, 2023](https://tass.com/science/1627981), which is 47 years after Luna-24. \n\n__The mission launch was delayed multiple times in the past__ (see the table below which is translated by Google Translate from the Wikipedia article about Luna-25 in Russian). [Last time this happened at the end of May when the launch was moved from July to August](https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/91003/#:~:text=2023%2021%3A11-,Luna%2025%20spacecraft%20launch%20postponed%20till%20August%20due%20to%20additional,infrastructure%2C%20Roscosmos%20said%20on%20Tuesday.). \n\n\n[](Translation by Google Translate from the Wikipedia article about Luna-25 in Russian)\nSource: [Wikipedia](https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B0-25), translation from Russian by Google Translate\n\n__Because of the delays in the past this question asks if they will launch the mission in the current launch window, which is July to August__, however, the launch on September 1st local time for Vostochny Cosmodrome will still resolve the question as \"Yes\", if Luna-25 will reach Earth's orbit.\n\nFrom the [recent video interview with Yuri Borisov, General Director of Roscosmos from 16th of June]( https://smotrim.ru/video/2633940) (automated translation based on automated transcription):\n\n>Well, to begin with, the interest in the Moon arose after the possibility of water extraction was identified. If there is water, it means there is life and we can organize, including on the planets, a new station and think about industrial use of lunar resources. This is why interest in the Moon has been aroused recently, not only in our country, but in a number of other countries as well. We are actually, after a long break, 46 years to be exact, going back to the Lunar Program, Luna 25, which is our project to put a landing on the Moon. An automatic station at the South Pole. Taking soil and conducting a number of scientific experiments. Preparations for the launch are proceeding as planned. We actually had to postpone the launch from July 11 and move it to August. __We cannot postpone it any further, unfortunately. The launch windows are the way the ballistics of reaching the Moon is set up.__ You know, this is a very responsible procedure, a soft landing. And so, of course, the experiment is quite expensive, you had to verify everything. You have probably heard that last year we refused because the personal characteristics of the laser number did not suit us and could lead to negative consequences. This experiment we postponed it. __Now all the major technical difficulties have been overcome. According to the latest information, all the mathematical modelling, and we are doing almost a simulation, all the landings are going according to plan, preparations are underway to deliver the satellite to the launch site. And we hope that the launch will take place in August.__\n\n\nMore recently, on June 30th, [Russian media](https://tass.ru/kosmos/18164233) quoted Borisov reporting the mission's chances of success to Putin (automatic translation from Russian with Google Translate):\n\n>Borisov said that the success of missions similar to Luna-25 is 70%\n\n>According to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances\n\n\n>MOSCOW, 30 June. /TASS/. The success of missions similar to the launch of the Luna-25 automatic apparatus in the world is 70%. This was reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin by the head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov on Friday.\n\n>“We are especially looking forward to the launch of a scientific satellite. We are returning to the Moon <…>. This mission involves landing in the South Pole region, no one in the world has ever done such things <…>. missions are estimated at about 70%,\" Borisov said.\n\n>According to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances. \"I would like it (the mission - TASS note) to be successful,\" the general director of the state corporation stressed.\n\n>The first domestic device in modern Russia, which will go to the natural satellite of the Earth, should be the automatic station \"Luna-25\". The purpose of the project is to send an automatic probe for research in the region of the south pole of the moon. It is planned that the module will be landed near the Boguslavsky crater. Earlier, the press service of Roscosmos told journalists that the launch of the mission was postponed from July to August in order to achieve the required reliability of its implementation.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"Yes\", if credible media report that Luna-25 has successfully reached Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023. Further success or failure of the mission (like reaching the Moon's orbit or succeeding with a soft landing) is irrelevant to this question's resolution.\n\nIf the launch is delayed again beyond this question resolution deadline or cancelled, the question resolves as \"No\".\n\nIf any failure during the launch prevents Luna-25 from reaching Earth's orbit, this question resolves as \"No\".", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691773629.584013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691773629.584013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9514234955823289 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020655434800179992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03365548811464179, 0.15268751507979428, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028841894683954285, 0.039003561466750214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18119093168767203, 0.017206765638407475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31967846996806076, 0.25108640973493557, 0.07538866801196019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019162154548036204, 0.04492986066620649, 0.0, 0.14772949571888752, 0.36383181363265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22045724352962418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6999018170090472, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.09543546787520314, 9.060255819686445 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.1961510017078885, "coverage": 0.5983868879021028, "baseline_score": 24.897575268125088, "spot_peer_score": -16.675851653379127, "peer_archived_score": 5.1961510017078885, "baseline_archived_score": 24.897575268125088, "spot_peer_archived_score": -16.675851653379127 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691696058.200288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691696058.200288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19290450437077145, 0.8070954956292286 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Luna-25](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25) is a planned lunar lander mission by the Russian space agency Roscosmos. If it succeeds, it will land in the lunar South Pole region near the Boguslavsky crater. \n\nAs [the Russian-language Wikipedia article about Luna-25](https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B0-25) says (translation by Google Translate):\n\n>The purpose of this project is to launch an automatic probe, the orbital part of which should carry out remote research and select suitable sites for subsequent descent vehicles, and the lander will explore the surface in the South Pole region , including cryogenic drilling to a depth of two meters (the main task is to search for water ).\n\nLuna-25 is the first lunar mission by Russia after the Soviet times. The last in the series of pioneering Soviet robotic lunar missions was Luna-24, which sent about 170 grams of moon material back to Earth in 1976. \n\nLuna-25 will launch atop a [Soyuz-2.1b rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz-2), which in recent years has been very reliable.\n\nThe mission is currently set to launch from [Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostochny_Cosmodrome) on [August 11, 2023](https://tass.com/science/1627981), which is 47 years after Luna-24. \n\n__The mission launch was delayed multiple times in the past__ (see the table below which is translated by Google Translate from the Wikipedia article about Luna-25 in Russian). [Last time this happened at the end of May when the launch was moved from July to August](https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/91003/#:~:text=2023%2021%3A11-,Luna%2025%20spacecraft%20launch%20postponed%20till%20August%20due%20to%20additional,infrastructure%2C%20Roscosmos%20said%20on%20Tuesday.). \n\n\n[](Translation by Google Translate from the Wikipedia article about Luna-25 in Russian)\nSource: [Wikipedia](https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B0-25), translation from Russian by Google Translate\n\n__Because of the delays in the past this question asks if they will launch the mission in the current launch window, which is July to August__, however, the launch on September 1st local time for Vostochny Cosmodrome will still resolve the question as \"Yes\", if Luna-25 will reach Earth's orbit.\n\nFrom the [recent video interview with Yuri Borisov, General Director of Roscosmos from 16th of June]( https://smotrim.ru/video/2633940) (automated translation based on automated transcription):\n\n>Well, to begin with, the interest in the Moon arose after the possibility of water extraction was identified. If there is water, it means there is life and we can organize, including on the planets, a new station and think about industrial use of lunar resources. This is why interest in the Moon has been aroused recently, not only in our country, but in a number of other countries as well. We are actually, after a long break, 46 years to be exact, going back to the Lunar Program, Luna 25, which is our project to put a landing on the Moon. An automatic station at the South Pole. Taking soil and conducting a number of scientific experiments. Preparations for the launch are proceeding as planned. We actually had to postpone the launch from July 11 and move it to August. __We cannot postpone it any further, unfortunately. The launch windows are the way the ballistics of reaching the Moon is set up.__ You know, this is a very responsible procedure, a soft landing. And so, of course, the experiment is quite expensive, you had to verify everything. You have probably heard that last year we refused because the personal characteristics of the laser number did not suit us and could lead to negative consequences. This experiment we postponed it. __Now all the major technical difficulties have been overcome. According to the latest information, all the mathematical modelling, and we are doing almost a simulation, all the landings are going according to plan, preparations are underway to deliver the satellite to the launch site. And we hope that the launch will take place in August.__\n\n\nMore recently, on June 30th, [Russian media](https://tass.ru/kosmos/18164233) quoted Borisov reporting the mission's chances of success to Putin (automatic translation from Russian with Google Translate):\n\n>Borisov said that the success of missions similar to Luna-25 is 70%\n\n>According to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances\n\n\n>MOSCOW, 30 June. /TASS/. The success of missions similar to the launch of the Luna-25 automatic apparatus in the world is 70%. This was reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin by the head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov on Friday.\n\n>“We are especially looking forward to the launch of a scientific satellite. We are returning to the Moon <…>. This mission involves landing in the South Pole region, no one in the world has ever done such things <…>. missions are estimated at about 70%,\" Borisov said.\n\n>According to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances. \"I would like it (the mission - TASS note) to be successful,\" the general director of the state corporation stressed.\n\n>The first domestic device in modern Russia, which will go to the natural satellite of the Earth, should be the automatic station \"Luna-25\". The purpose of the project is to send an automatic probe for research in the region of the south pole of the moon. It is planned that the module will be landed near the Boguslavsky crater. Earlier, the press service of Roscosmos told journalists that the launch of the mission was postponed from July to August in order to achieve the required reliability of its implementation.\"" }, { "id": 17764, "title": "Will the state of Missouri implement approval voting before 2030?", "short_title": "Missouri Approval Voting Before 2030?", "url_title": "Missouri Approval Voting Before 2030?", "slug": "missouri-approval-voting-before-2030", "author_id": 129317, "author_username": "Ibozz91", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T12:49:14.625833Z", "published_at": "2023-07-19T00:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T08:19:25.594686Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-19T00:08:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-07T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-19T00:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17764, "title": "Will the state of Missouri implement approval voting before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-07-07T12:49:14.625833Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T00:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-21T00:08:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-21T00:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-07T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Missouri Agrees campaign](https://www.missouriagrees.org/) is attempting to bring approval voting (under the name “Freedom Voting”) to the state of Missouri, as well as some other election reforms.\n\nApproval voting is a voting system that allows a voter to cast a vote for multiple candidates. The candidate with the most votes cast for them wins.\n\n[According to Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Approval_Voting_Initiative_(2022)) a petition to initiate approval voting as a constitutional amendment was started in Missouri in late 2021, but did not receive the signatures required by the deadline in May of 2022. However, [the Missouri Agrees campaign continues to push for approval voting](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/st-louis/news/2023/01/13/missouri-political-notebook). The city of St. Louis, Missouri, has implemented approval voting, [first used in its March 2, 2021, election](https://electionscience.org/press-releases/st-louis-voters-use-new-approval-voting-system-in-march-primary-election/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the state of Missouri has implemented approval voting and held a general election using approval voting for any of the following offices:\n\n* Statewide offices (e.g. governor or attorney general)\n* Missouri General Assembly\n* US Congress", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758097154.698938, "end_time": 1759722722.839203, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08980970690073085 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758097154.698938, "end_time": 1759722722.839203, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08980970690073085 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9101902930992691, 0.08980970690073085 ], "means": [ 0.118320175898418 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3490738270927551, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.6942871633258809, 0.0, 0.4965612136057959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39870004350989935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290066.473467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290066.473467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9509493456886566, 0.04905065431134335 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Missouri Agrees campaign](https://www.missouriagrees.org/) is attempting to bring approval voting (under the name “Freedom Voting”) to the state of Missouri, as well as some other election reforms.\n\nApproval voting is a voting system that allows a voter to cast a vote for multiple candidates. The candidate with the most votes cast for them wins.\n\n[According to Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Approval_Voting_Initiative_(2022)) a petition to initiate approval voting as a constitutional amendment was started in Missouri in late 2021, but did not receive the signatures required by the deadline in May of 2022. However, [the Missouri Agrees campaign continues to push for approval voting](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/st-louis/news/2023/01/13/missouri-political-notebook). The city of St. Louis, Missouri, has implemented approval voting, [first used in its March 2, 2021, election](https://electionscience.org/press-releases/st-louis-voters-use-new-approval-voting-system-in-march-primary-election/)." }, { "id": 17763, "title": "Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?", "short_title": "Threads more users than Twitter before 2026?", "url_title": "Threads more users than Twitter before 2026?", "slug": "threads-more-users-than-twitter-before-2026", "author_id": 131795, "author_username": "jackrafferty", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T05:38:28.611524Z", "published_at": "2023-07-23T14:51:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:24:15.741830Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-23T14:51:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-23T14:51:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 141, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17763, "title": "Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-07-07T05:38:28.611524Z", "open_time": "2023-07-23T14:51:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-24T22:42:05.858829Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-24T22:42:05.858829Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mark Zuckerberg launched a twitter competitor, Threads, on July 5, 2023. On the first day after launch, Zuckerberg [claimed](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-06/millions-sign-up-to-meta-twitter-rival-app-threads-in-hours/102572568) 30 million users signed up, and after the first week, [100 million had](https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/19/tech/threads-meta-growth-plan/index.html), though it is hard to estimate how many of those users will be \"monthly active\" until some months pass. Many of these users were able to sign up with just one or two clicks from Instagram. \n\nAs of December 2022, Twitter had [368M monthly active users](https://www.statista.com/statistics/303681/twitter-users-worldwide/), and many expect this to fall due to erratic leadership from Elon Musk. Meta's other properties, Facebook, Instagram, and Whatsapp, are all well over 1B MAUs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2025, Meta publicly reports Threads has a Monthly Active User number higher than the best public estimates of Twitter's MAUs at that time, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17763, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758090523.265755, "end_time": 1758702563.05814, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758090523.265755, "end_time": 1758702563.05814, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.07420176066126231 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.868620040024547, 1.44348853469192, 0.8071081236330913, 0.035814214006338115, 0.026340476979203848, 0.09971338213587698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052446473270009945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421425, 0.009837259930117102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.806208236854164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462, 0.031256855951900246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004800587348436423, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0057516855131656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20314358457038237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007946689641207845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289653.622007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289653.622007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9979452982067505, 0.0020547017932495515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 332, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mark Zuckerberg launched a twitter competitor, Threads, on July 5, 2023. On the first day after launch, Zuckerberg [claimed](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-06/millions-sign-up-to-meta-twitter-rival-app-threads-in-hours/102572568) 30 million users signed up, and after the first week, [100 million had](https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/19/tech/threads-meta-growth-plan/index.html), though it is hard to estimate how many of those users will be \"monthly active\" until some months pass. Many of these users were able to sign up with just one or two clicks from Instagram. \n\nAs of December 2022, Twitter had [368M monthly active users](https://www.statista.com/statistics/303681/twitter-users-worldwide/), and many expect this to fall due to erratic leadership from Elon Musk. Meta's other properties, Facebook, Instagram, and Whatsapp, are all well over 1B MAUs." }, { "id": 17758, "title": "Assuming the aquaculture FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of reducing antibiotic resistance in strains of pathogenic bacteria by 90% in a high-density fish pond be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "90% Less Fish Pond Antibiotic Resistance 2030", "url_title": "90% Less Fish Pond Antibiotic Resistance 2030", "slug": "90-less-fish-pond-antibiotic-resistance-2030", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T01:45:20.083932Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.604423Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2475, "type": "question_series", "name": "Reducing Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aquaculture_FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T22:54:49Z", "close_date": "2023-12-29T23:54:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2477, "type": "tournament", "name": "FRO-casting", "slug": "fro-casting", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T14:30:00Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:00:48Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-14T14:47:10.071355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2477, "type": "tournament", "name": "FRO-casting", "slug": "fro-casting", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T14:30:00Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:00:48Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-14T14:47:10.071355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17758, "title": "Assuming the aquaculture FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of reducing antibiotic resistance in strains of pathogenic bacteria by 90% in a high-density fish pond be achieved before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-07-07T01:45:20.083932Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Reduce Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PRxLBaOkgbUlqbrt6CT9BpEeN_hnKmWW4yFI3CCq9PE/edit#heading=h.9btm38r42ets).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/):\n\nResearch and engineering to reverse antibiotic resistance in aquatic bacteria, through the application of a well-validated CRISPR-based genetic system, can help catalyze safer, more sustainable land-based aquaculture as a nutritious and affordable food source.\n\n###Problem Statement\nThe growing human population needs affordable, healthy sources of protein. With overfishing putting severe pressure on global fish stocks, aquafarming presents a potential alternative. The U.S. currently imports about 80% of its seafood, and most imports are produced by foreign aquaculture; expanding domestic aquaculture could help to close the $17 billion seafood trade deficit. But domestic aquafarming poses its own challenges, including the potential for environmental contamination near ocean-based operations. In such scenarios, high concentrations of fish within netted areas lead to bacterial and other waste contamination spreading beyond the arena of fish confinement. The alternative strategy of raising fish in isolated inland enclosures may pose less environmental risk, but also requires maintenance of water quality, frequent water filtration and, often, the use of high antibiotic concentrations mitigate bacterial fish pathogens that thrive in such overcrowded conditions. In practice, aquafarmers often try to reduce the level of antibiotics added to the water in the last few weeks of fish growth to drop their concentrations below mandated health standards for commercial fish, but these efforts are only partly effective and create significant logistical burdens. \n\n###Project Concept\nWe proposed the development of genetic systems to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in land-based aquafarming enclosures. We will develop harmless strains of environmental bacteria capable of transferring self-copying genetic cassettes to pathogenic bacterial strains of concern in aquaculture. With these strains, we aim to reduce virulence of those bacterial pathogens in high-density fish enclosures and scrub their antibiotic resistance.\n\nThe heart of the project is to apply a well-validated self-amplifying genetic system, referred to as Prokaryotic-Active Genetics (Pro-AG), to the task of scrubbing virulence and antibiotic resistance factors from bacterial pathogens in aquaculture facilities. Since publication of the seminal study describing this CRISPR-based system for reversing antibiotic resistance (Valderrama et al., 2019, Nat. Comm. 10, 5726), we have further advanced the Pro-AG platform by combining it with means of spreading between bacteria through horizontal transfer systems such as conjugal transfer elements or bacteriophage. We have also incorporated new genetic features to the Pro-AG toolkit including a system to cleanly and efficiently delete genetic elements such as virulence factors responsible for antibiotic resistance. Building on these core achievements, we will transfer the Pro-AG framework and novel integrated phage-based systems to several bacterial strains of concern to aquaculture with the goal of diminishing their antibiotic resistance (AR) genes and virulence potential.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach for three reasons. First, it would be very difficult to attract VC or industry funding for this effort. The expected timeline is too long for most VCs who want to see a shorter horizon on return for their investments (on the order of 2-3 years). Second, the project has significant technical risk since we do not know how the Pro-AG systems will perform in the context of large enclosures densely packed with fish, which is a daunting environment for any anti-microbial intervention. Third, the scale of just the laboratory component of the project exceeds the level of funding normally available through standard channels of support for academic science, since Pro-AG delivery systems would need to be engineered in parallel for several different species of fish pathogens. This will also require more “applied” work than is typically supported by many academic research programs. For these reasons, the project fits perfectly in the sweet spot for a FRO. \n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nIf successful, our systems would greatly reduce the necessary frequency and concentrations of antibiotics to control bacterial fish pathogens. Solving or attenuating this central challenge to land-based aquaculture should help foster safe, sustainable and affordable sources of nutritious, uncontaminated fresh fish and help catalyze a shift away from unsustainable overfishing practices in the open ocean and environmentally hazardous practices in ocean-based aquafarms. This project could also have broader knock-on effects by enabling similar technical advances to reduce antibiotic resistance prevalence in other environmental settings (e.g., livestock, sewage treatment), which are also substantial sources of worldwide antibiotic resistance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 2: Engineer the release of modified bacteria and their distribution in a high-density fish pond and successfully reduce antibiotic resistance across multiple pathogenic bacterial strains by 90%**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [reduce antibiotic resistance in aquaculture](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17758, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703696315.631483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703696315.631483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4417906401661275 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 2.230652956744052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8037019479933394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008156.836603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008156.836603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7330425265839715, 0.26695747341602843 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Reduce Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PRxLBaOkgbUlqbrt6CT9BpEeN_hnKmWW4yFI3CCq9PE/edit#heading=h.9btm38r42ets).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/):\n\nResearch and engineering to reverse antibiotic resistance in aquatic bacteria, through the application of a well-validated CRISPR-based genetic system, can help catalyze safer, more sustainable land-based aquaculture as a nutritious and affordable food source.\n\n###Problem Statement\nThe growing human population needs affordable, healthy sources of protein. With overfishing putting severe pressure on global fish stocks, aquafarming presents a potential alternative. The U.S. currently imports about 80% of its seafood, and most imports are produced by foreign aquaculture; expanding domestic aquaculture could help to close the $17 billion seafood trade deficit. But domestic aquafarming poses its own challenges, including the potential for environmental contamination near ocean-based operations. In such scenarios, high concentrations of fish within netted areas lead to bacterial and other waste contamination spreading beyond the arena of fish confinement. The alternative strategy of raising fish in isolated inland enclosures may pose less environmental risk, but also requires maintenance of water quality, frequent water filtration and, often, the use of high antibiotic concentrations mitigate bacterial fish pathogens that thrive in such overcrowded conditions. In practice, aquafarmers often try to reduce the level of antibiotics added to the water in the last few weeks of fish growth to drop their concentrations below mandated health standards for commercial fish, but these efforts are only partly effective and create significant logistical burdens. \n\n###Project Concept\nWe proposed the development of genetic systems to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in land-based aquafarming enclosures. We will develop harmless strains of environmental bacteria capable of transferring self-copying genetic cassettes to pathogenic bacterial strains of concern in aquaculture. With these strains, we aim to reduce virulence of those bacterial pathogens in high-density fish enclosures and scrub their antibiotic resistance.\n\nThe heart of the project is to apply a well-validated self-amplifying genetic system, referred to as Prokaryotic-Active Genetics (Pro-AG), to the task of scrubbing virulence and antibiotic resistance factors from bacterial pathogens in aquaculture facilities. Since publication of the seminal study describing this CRISPR-based system for reversing antibiotic resistance (Valderrama et al., 2019, Nat. Comm. 10, 5726), we have further advanced the Pro-AG platform by combining it with means of spreading between bacteria through horizontal transfer systems such as conjugal transfer elements or bacteriophage. We have also incorporated new genetic features to the Pro-AG toolkit including a system to cleanly and efficiently delete genetic elements such as virulence factors responsible for antibiotic resistance. Building on these core achievements, we will transfer the Pro-AG framework and novel integrated phage-based systems to several bacterial strains of concern to aquaculture with the goal of diminishing their antibiotic resistance (AR) genes and virulence potential.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach for three reasons. First, it would be very difficult to attract VC or industry funding for this effort. The expected timeline is too long for most VCs who want to see a shorter horizon on return for their investments (on the order of 2-3 years). Second, the project has significant technical risk since we do not know how the Pro-AG systems will perform in the context of large enclosures densely packed with fish, which is a daunting environment for any anti-microbial intervention. Third, the scale of just the laboratory component of the project exceeds the level of funding normally available through standard channels of support for academic science, since Pro-AG delivery systems would need to be engineered in parallel for several different species of fish pathogens. This will also require more “applied” work than is typically supported by many academic research programs. For these reasons, the project fits perfectly in the sweet spot for a FRO. \n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nIf successful, our systems would greatly reduce the necessary frequency and concentrations of antibiotics to control bacterial fish pathogens. Solving or attenuating this central challenge to land-based aquaculture should help foster safe, sustainable and affordable sources of nutritious, uncontaminated fresh fish and help catalyze a shift away from unsustainable overfishing practices in the open ocean and environmentally hazardous practices in ocean-based aquafarms. This project could also have broader knock-on effects by enabling similar technical advances to reduce antibiotic resistance prevalence in other environmental settings (e.g., livestock, sewage treatment), which are also substantial sources of worldwide antibiotic resistance." }, { "id": 17752, "title": "Assuming the aquaculture FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of a 90% reduction in antibiotic resistance of a pathogenic bacteria in a 300 gallon aquarium be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "90% Less Aquarium Antibiotic Resistance 2030?", "url_title": "90% Less Aquarium Antibiotic Resistance 2030?", "slug": "90-less-aquarium-antibiotic-resistance-2030", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T01:13:53.393923Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T19:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.969924Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T19:59:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "closed", 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Reduce Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PRxLBaOkgbUlqbrt6CT9BpEeN_hnKmWW4yFI3CCq9PE/edit#heading=h.9btm38r42ets).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/):\n\nResearch and engineering to reverse antibiotic resistance in aquatic bacteria, through the application of a well-validated CRISPR-based genetic system, can help catalyze safer, more sustainable land-based aquaculture as a nutritious and affordable food source.\n\n###Problem Statement\nThe growing human population needs affordable, healthy sources of protein. With overfishing putting severe pressure on global fish stocks, aquafarming presents a potential alternative. The U.S. currently imports about 80% of its seafood, and most imports are produced by foreign aquaculture; expanding domestic aquaculture could help to close the $17 billion seafood trade deficit. But domestic aquafarming poses its own challenges, including the potential for environmental contamination near ocean-based operations. In such scenarios, high concentrations of fish within netted areas lead to bacterial and other waste contamination spreading beyond the arena of fish confinement. The alternative strategy of raising fish in isolated inland enclosures may pose less environmental risk, but also requires maintenance of water quality, frequent water filtration and, often, the use of high antibiotic concentrations mitigate bacterial fish pathogens that thrive in such overcrowded conditions. In practice, aquafarmers often try to reduce the level of antibiotics added to the water in the last few weeks of fish growth to drop their concentrations below mandated health standards for commercial fish, but these efforts are only partly effective and create significant logistical burdens. \n\n###Project Concept\nWe proposed the development of genetic systems to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in land-based aquafarming enclosures. We will develop harmless strains of environmental bacteria capable of transferring self-copying genetic cassettes to pathogenic bacterial strains of concern in aquaculture. With these strains, we aim to reduce virulence of those bacterial pathogens in high-density fish enclosures and scrub their antibiotic resistance.\n\nThe heart of the project is to apply a well-validated self-amplifying genetic system, referred to as Prokaryotic-Active Genetics (Pro-AG), to the task of scrubbing virulence and antibiotic resistance factors from bacterial pathogens in aquaculture facilities. Since publication of the seminal study describing this CRISPR-based system for reversing antibiotic resistance (Valderrama et al., 2019, Nat. Comm. 10, 5726), we have further advanced the Pro-AG platform by combining it with means of spreading between bacteria through horizontal transfer systems such as conjugal transfer elements or bacteriophage. We have also incorporated new genetic features to the Pro-AG toolkit including a system to cleanly and efficiently delete genetic elements such as virulence factors responsible for antibiotic resistance. Building on these core achievements, we will transfer the Pro-AG framework and novel integrated phage-based systems to several bacterial strains of concern to aquaculture with the goal of diminishing their antibiotic resistance (AR) genes and virulence potential.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach for three reasons. First, it would be very difficult to attract VC or industry funding for this effort. The expected timeline is too long for most VCs who want to see a shorter horizon on return for their investments (on the order of 2-3 years). Second, the project has significant technical risk since we do not know how the Pro-AG systems will perform in the context of large enclosures densely packed with fish, which is a daunting environment for any anti-microbial intervention. Third, the scale of just the laboratory component of the project exceeds the level of funding normally available through standard channels of support for academic science, since Pro-AG delivery systems would need to be engineered in parallel for several different species of fish pathogens. This will also require more “applied” work than is typically supported by many academic research programs. For these reasons, the project fits perfectly in the sweet spot for a FRO. \n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nIf successful, our systems would greatly reduce the necessary frequency and concentrations of antibiotics to control bacterial fish pathogens. Solving or attenuating this central challenge to land-based aquaculture should help foster safe, sustainable and affordable sources of nutritious, uncontaminated fresh fish and help catalyze a shift away from unsustainable overfishing practices in the open ocean and environmentally hazardous practices in ocean-based aquafarms. This project could also have broader knock-on effects by enabling similar technical advances to reduce antibiotic resistance prevalence in other environmental settings (e.g., livestock, sewage treatment), which are also substantial sources of worldwide antibiotic resistance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 1: Demonstrate that this technology can be adapted to a single pathogenic bacterial strain in a 300 gallon aquarium and successfully reduce antibiotic resistance by 90%**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [reduce antibiotic resistance in aquaculture](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703640182.071746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703640182.071746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8702397199055429 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0984825428050753, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008189.218496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008189.218496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10231566787459911, 0.8976843321254009 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Reduce Antibiotic Resistance In Aquaculture](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PRxLBaOkgbUlqbrt6CT9BpEeN_hnKmWW4yFI3CCq9PE/edit#heading=h.9btm38r42ets).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-reduce-antibiotic-resistance-in-aquaculture/):\n\nResearch and engineering to reverse antibiotic resistance in aquatic bacteria, through the application of a well-validated CRISPR-based genetic system, can help catalyze safer, more sustainable land-based aquaculture as a nutritious and affordable food source.\n\n###Problem Statement\nThe growing human population needs affordable, healthy sources of protein. With overfishing putting severe pressure on global fish stocks, aquafarming presents a potential alternative. The U.S. currently imports about 80% of its seafood, and most imports are produced by foreign aquaculture; expanding domestic aquaculture could help to close the $17 billion seafood trade deficit. But domestic aquafarming poses its own challenges, including the potential for environmental contamination near ocean-based operations. In such scenarios, high concentrations of fish within netted areas lead to bacterial and other waste contamination spreading beyond the arena of fish confinement. The alternative strategy of raising fish in isolated inland enclosures may pose less environmental risk, but also requires maintenance of water quality, frequent water filtration and, often, the use of high antibiotic concentrations mitigate bacterial fish pathogens that thrive in such overcrowded conditions. In practice, aquafarmers often try to reduce the level of antibiotics added to the water in the last few weeks of fish growth to drop their concentrations below mandated health standards for commercial fish, but these efforts are only partly effective and create significant logistical burdens. \n\n###Project Concept\nWe proposed the development of genetic systems to reduce the prevalence of antibiotic resistance in land-based aquafarming enclosures. We will develop harmless strains of environmental bacteria capable of transferring self-copying genetic cassettes to pathogenic bacterial strains of concern in aquaculture. With these strains, we aim to reduce virulence of those bacterial pathogens in high-density fish enclosures and scrub their antibiotic resistance.\n\nThe heart of the project is to apply a well-validated self-amplifying genetic system, referred to as Prokaryotic-Active Genetics (Pro-AG), to the task of scrubbing virulence and antibiotic resistance factors from bacterial pathogens in aquaculture facilities. Since publication of the seminal study describing this CRISPR-based system for reversing antibiotic resistance (Valderrama et al., 2019, Nat. Comm. 10, 5726), we have further advanced the Pro-AG platform by combining it with means of spreading between bacteria through horizontal transfer systems such as conjugal transfer elements or bacteriophage. We have also incorporated new genetic features to the Pro-AG toolkit including a system to cleanly and efficiently delete genetic elements such as virulence factors responsible for antibiotic resistance. Building on these core achievements, we will transfer the Pro-AG framework and novel integrated phage-based systems to several bacterial strains of concern to aquaculture with the goal of diminishing their antibiotic resistance (AR) genes and virulence potential.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach for three reasons. First, it would be very difficult to attract VC or industry funding for this effort. The expected timeline is too long for most VCs who want to see a shorter horizon on return for their investments (on the order of 2-3 years). Second, the project has significant technical risk since we do not know how the Pro-AG systems will perform in the context of large enclosures densely packed with fish, which is a daunting environment for any anti-microbial intervention. Third, the scale of just the laboratory component of the project exceeds the level of funding normally available through standard channels of support for academic science, since Pro-AG delivery systems would need to be engineered in parallel for several different species of fish pathogens. This will also require more “applied” work than is typically supported by many academic research programs. For these reasons, the project fits perfectly in the sweet spot for a FRO. \n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nIf successful, our systems would greatly reduce the necessary frequency and concentrations of antibiotics to control bacterial fish pathogens. Solving or attenuating this central challenge to land-based aquaculture should help foster safe, sustainable and affordable sources of nutritious, uncontaminated fresh fish and help catalyze a shift away from unsustainable overfishing practices in the open ocean and environmentally hazardous practices in ocean-based aquafarms. This project could also have broader knock-on effects by enabling similar technical advances to reduce antibiotic resistance prevalence in other environmental settings (e.g., livestock, sewage treatment), which are also substantial sources of worldwide antibiotic resistance." }, { "id": 17746, "title": "Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?", "short_title": "2100 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year?", "url_title": "2100 CO2 emissions exceed 20 gigatons/year?", "slug": "2100-co2-emissions-exceed-20-gigatonsyear", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117829, "username": "ramble" } ], "created_at": "2023-07-06T17:07:15.354841Z", "published_at": "2023-07-11T17:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.758776Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-11T17:45:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-11T17:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17746, "title": "Will carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry exceed 20 gigatons per year in 2100?", "created_at": "2023-07-06T17:07:15.354841Z", "open_time": "2023-07-11T17:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-13T17:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-13T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2101-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#by-gas-how-much-does-each-contribute-to-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions) estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each greenhouse gas by the [amount of warming](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) they cause over 100 years).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nIn November 2021, [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/) forecasted the future amount of greenhouse gas emissions and warming anomaly under different scenarios:\n\n<img src=\"https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT-2100WarmingProjectionsGraph-PNG-2021.11.original.png\" />\n\nNote that this graph includes other greenhouse gases in [CO2 equivalents](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) and includes land use change. It also has no scenarios where current government pledges are substantially weakened or strengthened.\n\nThe US [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/outlook-for-future-emissions.php) forecasted in October 2021 (assuming current technology and policy trends continue) that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase through 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the annual CO2 emissions for the year 2100 exceed 20 billion tons, as reported by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17746, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738644548.420963, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4608820081 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738644548.420963, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4608820081 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.28511213621368436 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.5701627105501564, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287144.166171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287144.166171, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.975151351448043, 0.02484864855195696 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Carbon Dioxide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide) (CO2) is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by humanity and the primary driver of climate change, as of 2016. [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#by-gas-how-much-does-each-contribute-to-total-greenhouse-gas-emissions) estimated that in 2016 CO2 made up 74% of humanity's total greenhouse gas emissions (when weighting each greenhouse gas by the [amount of warming](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) they cause over 100 years).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-co2-emissions-per-country?country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nIn November 2021, [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/glasgows-2030-credibility-gap-net-zeros-lip-service-to-climate-action/) forecasted the future amount of greenhouse gas emissions and warming anomaly under different scenarios:\n\n<img src=\"https://climateactiontracker.org/media/images/CAT-2100WarmingProjectionsGraph-PNG-2021.11.original.png\" />\n\nNote that this graph includes other greenhouse gases in [CO2 equivalents](https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions#how-do-we-account-for-the-warming-of-different-gases) and includes land use change. It also has no scenarios where current government pledges are substantially weakened or strengthened.\n\nThe US [Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/energy-and-the-environment/outlook-for-future-emissions.php) forecasted in October 2021 (assuming current technology and policy trends continue) that global energy-related CO2 emissions would increase through 2050." }, { "id": 17742, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine regains Bakhmut before October 2023?", "url_title": "Ukraine regains Bakhmut before October 2023?", "slug": "ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-october-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100345, "username": "EvanHarper" }, { "id": 121041, "username": "norick" } ], "created_at": "2023-07-06T16:07:44.003329Z", "published_at": "2023-07-07T19:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.888742Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17742, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-06T16:07:44.003329Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T19:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-06T19:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-06T19:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T21:00:44.003000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T21:00:44.003000Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Previous Questions on Metaculus**\n\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/)\n- [Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/)\n\nOn February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve [rapidly taking the capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)), deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after this plan was unsuccessful, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"[Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group),\" a Russian paramilitary force.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was a central focus of the war, with fighting in [trench warfare conditions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-warns-of-new-missile-attacks-russia-may-be-preparing-to-leave-zaporizhzhia-plant-nuclear-chief-says?page=with:block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6#block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6) and [heavy casualties](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-estimates-50-100-russian-troops-are-killed-in-bakhmut-sector-daily/).\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news). On January 16, Russian forces [secured control of Soledar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Soledar) and began encircling Bakhmut.\n\nAfter [months of fighting](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/3/9/23631178/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war-wagner) Russia made [gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut) in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building [falling](https://kyivindependent.com/presidents-office-head-urges-calmly-react-to-fakes-after-wagner-boss-claims-seizure-of-bakhmut-administration-building/) to Russian troops in April. \n\nOn May 5, the head of the Wagner Group [said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/prigozhin-wagner-troops-withdraw-bakhmut-russia-military-ammo-video-rcna83015) because of lack of Russian support. Wagner then reversed course, before [transferring the city](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65705733) to the Russian army.\n\nUkraine launched a [counter-offensive](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66075786) in June 2023, and fierce fighting [resumed near Bakhmut](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-struck-ukrainian-forces-near-bakhmut-2023-07-05/).", "resolution_criteria": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n\nThe question will resolve **Yes** if, when checked by Metaculus admins at 5pm ET on September 30, 2023, the map shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building—located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500—is under any of the following categories:\n\n- Ukranian Control\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukranian control of the location\n\nThe question will resolve **No** if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n- Assessed Russian Advance\n- Claimed Russian Control\n- Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building\n\nForecasters can see the exact location of the administrative building by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500\".", "fine_print": "If the building itself no longer exists, resolution will be based on the location of the building.\n\nCredit to [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2621-will-the-location-of-the-administrative-services-building-in-bakhmut-ukraine-cease-to-be-under-ukrainian-control-before-26-january-2023-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war) for inspiring the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 17742, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696104531.402833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 337, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696104531.402833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 337, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.0464705199986326 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.461484632450425, 9.740055658946822, 1.3797300489711848, 0.1136034775055989, 0.12516163112855144, 0.34064945098885924, 0.07597952771104494, 0.017798533158726003, 0.003081493780433812, 0.00801785567567934, 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2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/)\n\nOn February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve [rapidly taking the capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)), deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after this plan was unsuccessful, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"[Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group),\" a Russian paramilitary force.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was a central focus of the war, with fighting in [trench warfare conditions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-warns-of-new-missile-attacks-russia-may-be-preparing-to-leave-zaporizhzhia-plant-nuclear-chief-says?page=with:block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6#block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6) and [heavy casualties](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-estimates-50-100-russian-troops-are-killed-in-bakhmut-sector-daily/).\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news). On January 16, Russian forces [secured control of Soledar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Soledar) and began encircling Bakhmut.\n\nAfter [months of fighting](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/3/9/23631178/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war-wagner) Russia made [gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut) in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building [falling](https://kyivindependent.com/presidents-office-head-urges-calmly-react-to-fakes-after-wagner-boss-claims-seizure-of-bakhmut-administration-building/) to Russian troops in April. \n\nOn May 5, the head of the Wagner Group [said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/prigozhin-wagner-troops-withdraw-bakhmut-russia-military-ammo-video-rcna83015) because of lack of Russian support. Wagner then reversed course, before [transferring the city](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65705733) to the Russian army.\n\nUkraine launched a [counter-offensive](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66075786) in June 2023, and fierce fighting [resumed near Bakhmut](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-struck-ukrainian-forces-near-bakhmut-2023-07-05/)." }, { "id": 17728, "title": "Will OpenAI announce that it has solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment by June 30, 2027?", "short_title": "OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?", "url_title": "OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?", "slug": "openai-solves-alignment-before-june-30-2027", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-05T22:47:30.562421Z", "published_at": "2023-07-05T23:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:22:47.303106Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-05T23:37:01.357762Z", 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focused on achieving scientific and technical breakthroughs to steer and control potentially superintelligent AI systems. OpenAI created a new team, co-led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike, and pledged 20% of its compute to the effort. OpenAI said:\n\n> Our goal is to solve the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years.\n\nThe core idea of OpenAI's approach is to \"build a roughly human-level [automated alignment researcher](https://openai.com/blog/our-approach-to-alignment-research)\" and then to \"use vast amounts of computer to scale our efforts, and iteratively align superintelligence.\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if OpenAI publishes a blog post, press release, or technical paper before June 30, 2027, declaring that they have met their goal from the [July 5 2023 post](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment), or otherwise stipulating \"very high confidence\" that they have solved the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment.", "fine_print": "OpenAI has [said](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment):\n> Solving the problem includes providing evidence and arguments that convince the machine learning and safety community that it has been solved. If we fail to have a very high level of confidence in our solutions, we hope our findings let us and the community plan appropriately.", "post_id": 17728, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758565889.252356, "end_time": 1759250922.595592, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758565889.252356, "end_time": 1759250922.595592, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02302409015182102 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.846365185321309, 4.20073545707205, 1.9763784330910699, 2.4821992692773565, 0.07479673971646025, 0.40408253363570695, 0.0030580047396704126, 0.9127923000151363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13050914561733523, 0.0, 0.2948826014079652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026447793487608128, 0.09017835179517292, 0.010243343466511347, 0.004260043935447174, 0.0027223742919663453, 0.0021358479068187765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010784108305004398, 0.12410419092502141, 0.0038245446286032047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15845768353311826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014511529871301599, 0.03450808681536507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012497772419926385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024156522646221978 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288342.378606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288342.378606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 200, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9970729952245209, 0.0029270047754791605 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 471, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 5, 2023, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment) a new initiative, Superalignment, focused on achieving scientific and technical breakthroughs to steer and control potentially superintelligent AI systems. OpenAI created a new team, co-led by Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike, and pledged 20% of its compute to the effort. OpenAI said:\n\n> Our goal is to solve the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years.\n\nThe core idea of OpenAI's approach is to \"build a roughly human-level [automated alignment researcher](https://openai.com/blog/our-approach-to-alignment-research)\" and then to \"use vast amounts of computer to scale our efforts, and iteratively align superintelligence.\"" }, { "id": 17725, "title": "Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?", "short_title": "Stage 9 winner hold yellow jersey?", "url_title": "Stage 9 winner hold yellow jersey?", "slug": "stage-9-winner-hold-yellow-jersey", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-05T21:24:06.197142Z", "published_at": "2023-07-07T20:01:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.337740Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-07T20:01:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": 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"2023-07-09T18:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-09T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-09T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-09T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://www.letour.fr/en/) is one of the most prestigious and iconic cycling races in the world, attracting top cyclists from around the globe. \n\nThe yellow jersey, or maillot jaune, is worn by the leader of the [general classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_classification_in_the_Tour_de_France), representing the cyclist with the lowest cumulative time. It is a coveted symbol of excellence and serves as a significant milestone in the race. \n\n[Stage 9](https://www.cyclingstage.com/tour-de-france-2023-route/stage-9-tdf-2023/) will be ridden on Sunday, July 9th and is a mountain climbing stage ([on a volcano](https://www.letour.fr/en/heritage/stage-9/town/puy-de-dome)!) that hasn't been part of the Tour since 1988. The following day will be the first rest day of the Tour.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the cyclist who wins [stage 9](https://www.letour.fr/en/stage-9) of the 2023 Tour de France is also ranked first in the [General Individual Rankings](https://www.letour.fr/en/rankings) after stage 9.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17725, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688874045.797308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688874045.797308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.3621667880821862 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.011364900518339544, 0.04842515677234604, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24703615525397116, 1.074732645620085, 0.0, 0.38213595752647456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.4087506853414205, 0.5608812398816437, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.8802753074680358, "coverage": 0.9999442183511595, "baseline_score": 44.41141683688777, "spot_peer_score": -1.4001162519888732, "peer_archived_score": 1.8802753074680358, "baseline_archived_score": 44.41141683688777, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.4001162519888732 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688874045.814904, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688874045.814904, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.555030543197232, 0.44496945680276806 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://www.letour.fr/en/) is one of the most prestigious and iconic cycling races in the world, attracting top cyclists from around the globe. \n\nThe yellow jersey, or maillot jaune, is worn by the leader of the [general classification](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_classification_in_the_Tour_de_France), representing the cyclist with the lowest cumulative time. It is a coveted symbol of excellence and serves as a significant milestone in the race. \n\n[Stage 9](https://www.cyclingstage.com/tour-de-france-2023-route/stage-9-tdf-2023/) will be ridden on Sunday, July 9th and is a mountain climbing stage ([on a volcano](https://www.letour.fr/en/heritage/stage-9/town/puy-de-dome)!) that hasn't been part of the Tour since 1988. The following day will be the first rest day of the Tour." }, { "id": 17716, "title": "Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?", "short_title": "Cris Ericson VT Senator in 2024?", "url_title": "Cris Ericson VT Senator in 2024?", "slug": "cris-ericson-vt-senator-in-2024", "author_id": 149474, "author_username": "ru18vote", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-05T01:27:56.227570Z", "published_at": "2023-07-07T00:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.992111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-07T00:23:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T17:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T17:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17716, "title": "Will Cris Ericson win the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont?", "created_at": "2023-07-05T01:27:56.227570Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-09T00:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-09T00:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T17:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T18:10:03.234711Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-08T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T17:52:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Cris Ericson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cris_Ericson) has been a candidate every two years in Vermont from 2002 to 2020 and has lost every election. She is known as the cannabis legalization [candidate](http://crisericson.com) in Vermont. Cannabis is now [legal](https://www.mpp.org/states/vermont/) under VT state law, but not under federal laws.\n\nCris Ericson has been excluded from the majority of debates and forums from 2002 through 2022. She has [announced her candidacy](https://www.diamondeyecandidatereport.com/home/first-challenger-to-senator-bernie-sanders-is-a-familiar-face-in-vermont-politics) for Senate in Vermont, challenging incumbent Senator Bernie Sanders.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if Cris Ericson is declared the winner of the 2024 United States Senate election in Vermont by the [Vermont Secretary of State](https://sos.vermont.gov/elections/election-info-resources/elections-results-data/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17716, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731083189.063215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731083189.063215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005653173502894246 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.323395671072003, 1.1402731167598346, 0.09956885969569651, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.03411561381977573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.51484870449003, "peer_score": 2.125390312575831, "coverage": 0.9937584175339442, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997974119739219, "spot_peer_score": 1.8111348579169313, "baseline_archived_score": 97.51484870449003, "peer_archived_score": 2.125390312575831, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8111348579169313 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288927.334475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288927.334475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Cris Ericson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cris_Ericson) has been a candidate every two years in Vermont from 2002 to 2020 and has lost every election. She is known as the cannabis legalization [candidate](http://crisericson.com) in Vermont. Cannabis is now [legal](https://www.mpp.org/states/vermont/) under VT state law, but not under federal laws.\n\nCris Ericson has been excluded from the majority of debates and forums from 2002 through 2022. She has [announced her candidacy](https://www.diamondeyecandidatereport.com/home/first-challenger-to-senator-bernie-sanders-is-a-familiar-face-in-vermont-politics) for Senate in Vermont, challenging incumbent Senator Bernie Sanders." }, { "id": 17714, "title": "Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?", "short_title": "Will Norway vote on EU before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Will Norway vote on EU before Sep 2025?", "slug": "will-norway-vote-on-eu-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 131821, "author_username": "Hamnøy_OPT", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-04T17:44:23.150621Z", "published_at": "2023-07-19T23:51:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T17:46:51.883781Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-19T23:51:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-07T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T23:51:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17714, "title": "Will Norway announce an official referendum about EU accession before the next parliamentary election in September 2025?", "created_at": "2023-07-04T17:44:23.150621Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T23:51:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-21T23:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-21T23:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-07T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-07T17:46:51.838334Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Norway is not a member state of the European Union (EU). However, it is associated with the Union through its membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), signed in 1992 and established in 1994.\n\nThe Norwegians voted twice about EU membership. Once in 1972 and again in 1994. In the first case with 53,5% of the people against, in the second case 52,2% against.\n\nThe debate has gained some renewed interest in the public after Sweden and Finland decided to join the NATO. The political parties mostly support joining the Union, as they have done in the past, too. [Linked here](https://www.newsinenglish.no/2023/04/05/ex-premier-fires-up-norways-eu-debate/), for example, is a statement by the former prime minister, Erna Solberg.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as YES if the Norwegian government announces an official referendum on the issue of EU membership before the next parliamentary election date (some time in September 2025) via www.regjeringen.no or any other official communication channel, otherwise it resolves NO.", "fine_print": "The decisive date is the date the referendum is announced, regardless of when the referendum will actually be held.", "post_id": 17714, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756188240.064508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756188240.064508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06853382014209397 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.382425624405823, 1.7549731054070334, 1.7425533762207404, 1.1846718994969416, 0.5850006390553214, 0.0, 0.7462504723962555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.19349714324532621, 0.0, 0.6906700652107194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09804450254408996, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 65.69418816345099, "peer_score": 13.073981822027033, "coverage": 0.9997640556581837, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997640556581837, "spot_peer_score": 18.110554363119842, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830476, "baseline_archived_score": 65.69418816345099, "peer_archived_score": 13.073981822027033, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.110554363119842, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830476 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287478.324623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287478.324623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9488008203324264, 0.05119917966757359 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Norway is not a member state of the European Union (EU). 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Survive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Survive) and has not seen a canonical main title since 2015's [Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_V:_The_Phantom_Pain), will eventually receive a sixth title.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a new game is released with the words 'Metal Gear Solid 6' in the title, or some variation of (such as Metal Gear Solid 5's choice of the Roman numeral for 5 in the title), before January 1, 2034.\n\nThe question will also resolve **Yes** if a main Metal Gear Solid title is released that is confirmed canonical by Konami and continues the story of the Metal Gear Saga in a way that is new (i.e. not a remake such as Delta), as determined by the judgement of Metaculus moderators.", "fine_print": "Non-canonical or semi-canonical side games, such as Metal Gear Survive or Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance will not trigger positive resolution.", "post_id": 17687, "aggregations": 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false, "description": "With the announcement of [Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_Delta:_Snake_Eater), [speculation](https://www.techradar.com/news/metal-gear-solid-6) [has begun](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwj2zaiPquv_AhWMtoQIHaWoDgwQz40FegQICBAK&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DMWqQfAimwCA&usg=AOvVaw0-B6VwCc79hqBmkn5WuZRL&opi=89978449) that the Metal Gear series, which has been dormant since the 2018 release of [Metal Gear Survive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Survive) and has not seen a canonical main title since 2015's [Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metal_Gear_Solid_V:_The_Phantom_Pain), will eventually receive a sixth title." }, { "id": 17682, "title": "Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?", "short_title": "Putin's Martial Law Declaration", "url_title": "Putin's 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17682, "title": "Will Vladimir Putin declare Martial Law in at least 3/4 of Russia before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-30T10:03:53.673527Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-09T00:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-09T00:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T19:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T20:07:29.941668Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 24 February 2022, [Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), escalating the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) that began in 2014. Subsequently, on 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally [declared the annexation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_annexation_of_Donetsk,_Kherson,_Luhansk_and_Zaporizhzhia_oblasts) of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts. [Martial law was introduced in Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_martial_law) on 20 October 2022 but was implemented only in the annexed territories of Ukraine. Different levels of readiness or response were established in various regions, including those bordering Ukraine and annexed Crimea. On 23 June 2023, a [rebellion by the Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion), a private military company linked to the Russian government, occurred. The rebellion reportedly led to a decline of 9-14% in public trust towards Vladimir Putin, as reported by [Meduza](https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/29/sotsiologi-govoryat-chto-myatezh-ne-obrushil-reytingi-prezidenta-rossii-odnako-regionalnye-politiki-rasskazali-meduze-chto-v-kremle-im-soobschayut-o-padenii-urovnya-doveriya-putinu-na-9-14) on 29 June. Notably, [presidential elections are scheduled for March 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election), and under electoral law, they [cannot be held during a period of martial law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Russia#Permitted_limitations). This question aims to assess the likelihood of Putin declaring martial law within a specific timeframe.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Vladimir Putin officially declares a state of martial law covering 3/4 of all [federal subjects of Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) before January 1, 2025. The declaration should be recognized and implemented by the Russian government through official channels and public announcements.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of resolution, federal subjects whose territories are internationally recognized as part of Ukraine will not be considered in the 3/4 calculation.", "post_id": 17682, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735662022.510716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735662022.510716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.03723798110814398 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.470821233065875, 6.096240403883692, 0.9497074475097469, 0.04265526142258026, 0.1707241133540734, 0.49045428708101074, 0.0, 0.5356360517870654, 0.16871685475903522, 0.027654334619912763, 0.02685415048573589, 0.0, 0.00012443158798355354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027092930966798132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06163339913849769, 0.0, 0.00020597879790480454, 0.2634655093702139, 0.0007033164117141776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.984185085196401e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012759492938860048, 0.0032672543510765713, 0.0, 0.0006068793783218393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13788621723318709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037246101996206123, 0.0, 0.000520080144308091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10049417417338719, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33954305072254265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04770783938512042 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.65620146368566, "peer_score": 11.761208862345788, "coverage": 0.999677404329807, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999677404329807, "spot_peer_score": 37.826623406471725, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 91.65620146368566, "peer_archived_score": 11.761208862345788, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.826623406471725, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287166.887411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287166.887411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9920706266787742, 0.007929373321225779 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 257, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 24 February 2022, [Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), escalating the [Russo-Ukrainian War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War) that began in 2014. Subsequently, on 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally [declared the annexation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_annexation_of_Donetsk,_Kherson,_Luhansk_and_Zaporizhzhia_oblasts) of areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts. [Martial law was introduced in Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_martial_law) on 20 October 2022 but was implemented only in the annexed territories of Ukraine. Different levels of readiness or response were established in various regions, including those bordering Ukraine and annexed Crimea. On 23 June 2023, a [rebellion by the Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion), a private military company linked to the Russian government, occurred. The rebellion reportedly led to a decline of 9-14% in public trust towards Vladimir Putin, as reported by [Meduza](https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/29/sotsiologi-govoryat-chto-myatezh-ne-obrushil-reytingi-prezidenta-rossii-odnako-regionalnye-politiki-rasskazali-meduze-chto-v-kremle-im-soobschayut-o-padenii-urovnya-doveriya-putinu-na-9-14) on 29 June. Notably, [presidential elections are scheduled for March 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election), and under electoral law, they [cannot be held during a period of martial law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Russia#Permitted_limitations). This question aims to assess the likelihood of Putin declaring martial law within a specific timeframe." }, { "id": 17679, "title": "Will 85% of Chrome users have cookies deprecated before June 2026?", "short_title": "End of internet cookies by June 2026 ?", "url_title": "End of internet cookies by June 2026 ?", "slug": "end-of-internet-cookies-by-june-2026", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-30T06:23:34.043863Z", "published_at": "2024-05-18T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.292106Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-18T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-18T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17679, "title": "Will 85% of Chrome users have cookies deprecated before June 2026?", "created_at": "2023-06-30T06:23:34.043863Z", "open_time": "2024-05-18T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google announced in 2023 new developments related to [The Privacy Sandbox](https://developer.chrome.com/en/blog/shipping-privacy-sandbox/). The goal of the Privacy Sandbox is to create a more privacy-focused web environment that still allows for personalized content and ads without the invasive tracking practices that have become common.\n\nAs part of this initiative, Google will introduce a feature called Tracking Protection, which restricts access to third-party cookies by default, limiting the ability of sites to track users across the web. In Q1 2024, 1% of chrome users was supposed to get in a first trial of this new technology, supposed to end cookies.\n\nThe full implementation, which will see third-party cookies phased out completely, is planned for the second half of 2024, subject to regulatory considerations.", "resolution_criteria": "This forecast resolves positively if Google announces before June 1, 2026, that either 85% of Chrome users globally had seen cookies being deprecated or had been included in The Privacy Sandbox.", "fine_print": "Inclusion in the Privacy Sandbox or exclusion from the deprecated cookies system can be achieved through active notification, settings changes, or by being part of a test group. \n\nAn announcement will be an official communication from Google, for instance in the [quarterly updates from The Privacy Sandbox](https://privacysandbox.com/intl/en_us/news/), or a report by a credible news sources. If Google does not make update anymore and there is no sign that the initiative is still active, this will resolve negative.\n\nIn case there is any uncertainty, metaculus moderators will determine whether this criteria is met.\n\nThis resolution will apply regardless of whether regulatory or technical challenges reverse the initiative.", "post_id": 17679, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756863153.439847, "end_time": 1763402436.421, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756863153.439847, "end_time": 1763402436.421, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.07133361604022687 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5394643218522802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7340267287201618, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.9707539148649986, 0.6286996658179782, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287987.215833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287987.215833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9533311382226219, 0.04666886177737811 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google announced in 2023 new developments related to [The Privacy Sandbox](https://developer.chrome.com/en/blog/shipping-privacy-sandbox/). The goal of the Privacy Sandbox is to create a more privacy-focused web environment that still allows for personalized content and ads without the invasive tracking practices that have become common.\n\nAs part of this initiative, Google will introduce a feature called Tracking Protection, which restricts access to third-party cookies by default, limiting the ability of sites to track users across the web. In Q1 2024, 1% of chrome users was supposed to get in a first trial of this new technology, supposed to end cookies.\n\nThe full implementation, which will see third-party cookies phased out completely, is planned for the second half of 2024, subject to regulatory considerations." }, { "id": 17660, "title": "Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?", "short_title": "Mandatory Cyclone Evacuation in VA in 2023?", "url_title": "Mandatory Cyclone Evacuation in VA in 2023?", "slug": "mandatory-cyclone-evacuation-in-va-in-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-29T16:18:46.436555Z", "published_at": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.700047Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", 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"binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hurricane season in Virginia runs from [June 1 to November 30](https://www.vaemergency.gov/threats/hurricanes/). Virginia uses a system known as [\"Know Your Zone\"](https://va-know-your-zone-vdemgis.hub.arcgis.com/) featuring four zones for at-risk areas which can be used for evacuation orders:\r\n\r\n>“Know Your Zone” serves roughly 1.25 million residents who live in Coastal Virginia, the region of the state most vulnerable to hurricanes and other tropical storms. Twenty-three localities participate in the tiered evacuation zones. Zones were developed in close coordination with local emergency managers throughout Hampton Roads, the Northern Neck, the Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore based on the most up-to-date engineering data for the region.\r\n>\r\n>Zones are designated A through D. Zones provide residents with clarity on whether they should evacuate in an emergency or shelter at home, based on their physical street address and the nature of the emergency event. When a serious storm is expected to threaten or impact Virginia’s coastal regions, state and local emergency agencies will work with local news media outlets, as well as social media channels, that will then broadcast and publish evacuation directives to the public.\r\n>\r\n>. . .\r\n>\r\n>When a storm is approaching, emergency managers will determine which zones are most at risk considering the intensity, path, speed, tides and other meteorological factors. Emergency managers at the state and local level will work with local media and use social media and other tools to notify residents of impacted zones what they should do to stay safe.\r\n>\r\n>Depending on the emergency, being safe might mean staying at home, a short trip to higher ground, or traveling to a different region of the state.\r\n\r\nThe Governor, Virginia Emergency Management Officials, and Local Governments may order a mandatory evacuation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the government of Virginia (either state or local) orders a mandatory evacuation related to any tropical cyclone.", "fine_print": "A mandatory evacuation need not be for an entire zone, a mandatory evacuation related to any tropical cyclone for a city or other region would also be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 17660, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055583.113841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055583.113841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.056143112512699773 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.885813433716825, 2.591439130411893, 0.2519740871949554, 0.10299458082921686, 0.3049561900209807, 0.3870916529473755, 0.0, 0.14132753844395196, 0.3001012763665529, 0.0, 0.2131831510547586, 0.014847804209650994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07807940007898889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021159747596370834, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07969882353158218, 0.15635056202879707, 0.2758521521053194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007784236121081673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024887815310673432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005954525306226569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028636604341700815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009856869823379553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017823678094023753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30155575609455343 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.478048574225653, "coverage": 0.9999811427212195, "baseline_score": 75.58045823573701, "spot_peer_score": 8.913273638998652, "peer_archived_score": 20.478048574225653, "baseline_archived_score": 75.58045823573701, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.913273638998652 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055583.140986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055583.140986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hurricane season in Virginia runs from [June 1 to November 30](https://www.vaemergency.gov/threats/hurricanes/). Virginia uses a system known as [\"Know Your Zone\"](https://va-know-your-zone-vdemgis.hub.arcgis.com/) featuring four zones for at-risk areas which can be used for evacuation orders:\r\n\r\n>“Know Your Zone” serves roughly 1.25 million residents who live in Coastal Virginia, the region of the state most vulnerable to hurricanes and other tropical storms. Twenty-three localities participate in the tiered evacuation zones. Zones were developed in close coordination with local emergency managers throughout Hampton Roads, the Northern Neck, the Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore based on the most up-to-date engineering data for the region.\r\n>\r\n>Zones are designated A through D. Zones provide residents with clarity on whether they should evacuate in an emergency or shelter at home, based on their physical street address and the nature of the emergency event. When a serious storm is expected to threaten or impact Virginia’s coastal regions, state and local emergency agencies will work with local news media outlets, as well as social media channels, that will then broadcast and publish evacuation directives to the public.\r\n>\r\n>. . .\r\n>\r\n>When a storm is approaching, emergency managers will determine which zones are most at risk considering the intensity, path, speed, tides and other meteorological factors. Emergency managers at the state and local level will work with local media and use social media and other tools to notify residents of impacted zones what they should do to stay safe.\r\n>\r\n>Depending on the emergency, being safe might mean staying at home, a short trip to higher ground, or traveling to a different region of the state.\r\n\r\nThe Governor, Virginia Emergency Management Officials, and Local Governments may order a mandatory evacuation." } ] }
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