Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3180
{ "count": 6358, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3200", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3160", "results": [ { "id": 21306, "title": "Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?", "short_title": "Atlantic Storms", "url_title": "Atlantic Storms", "slug": "atlantic-storms", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-31T14:54:42.405767Z", "published_at": "2024-02-03T21:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.326705Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-03T21:23:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T06:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21306, "title": "Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?", "created_at": "2024-01-31T14:54:42.405767Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-06T21:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-06T21:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T06:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-10T06:55:03.070869Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2023 Atlantic hurricane season](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-ranks-4th-for-most-named-storms-in-year#:~:text=The%20above%2Dnormal%202023%20Atlantic,in%20a%20year%20since%201950.), concluding on November 30, stood out due to exceptionally warm Atlantic sea temperatures and a potent El Nino. With 20 named storms, it's the fourth highest since 1950. Of these, seven escalated to hurricanes, and three reached major hurricane status, surpassing the average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.\nThe season **officially begins on June 1, 2024, and ends on November 30, 2024**.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if more than 18 storms are officially named in the Atlantic basin during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1, 2024 to November 30, 2024 according to the [National Hurricane Centre](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If the NHC does not name more than 18 storms before November 30, 2024, the question resolves \"No.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21306, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733007382.649597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733007382.649597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.14631647959773236 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7184157751443578, 0.8570026340065788, 0.11096509564589224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5383061686336705, 0.19043220276906433, 0.0, 0.1717686095865529, 0.0, 1.357021751907755, 1.2106750195973517, 0.4343762510013628, 0.1387803475283947, 0.0, 1.6366219955145396, 0.4315557279391698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038586475818220903, 0.04535037156571558, 0.15458320800495146, 0.0, 0.06825837252413955, 1.0162546241594235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05224102104996991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40633218071331956, 0.5712612958305987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30966205628112686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028511763448086522, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03913203907098744, 0.0, 0.005838829315397701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03353515913390628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01644146499808245, 0.008023442444365229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03328838488662604, 0.0, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -29.57962486141861, "peer_score": 11.539230811399968, "coverage": 0.9941897497018762, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9941897497018762, "spot_peer_score": 0.05089202518733035, "baseline_archived_score": -29.57962486141861, "peer_archived_score": 11.539230811399968, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.05089202518733035 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288491.226153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288491.226153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9761341596151092, 0.023865840384890792 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 245, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2023 Atlantic hurricane season](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-ranks-4th-for-most-named-storms-in-year#:~:text=The%20above%2Dnormal%202023%20Atlantic,in%20a%20year%20since%201950.), concluding on November 30, stood out due to exceptionally warm Atlantic sea temperatures and a potent El Nino. With 20 named storms, it's the fourth highest since 1950. Of these, seven escalated to hurricanes, and three reached major hurricane status, surpassing the average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.\nThe season **officially begins on June 1, 2024, and ends on November 30, 2024**." }, { "id": 21303, "title": "Will Josh Silverman continue to be CEO of Etsy until 2029?", "short_title": "Etsy CEO 2029", "url_title": "Etsy CEO 2029", "slug": "etsy-ceo-2029", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-31T14:51:06.245020Z", "published_at": "2024-02-03T21:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.718449Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-03T21:20:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21303, "title": "Will Josh Silverman continue to be CEO of Etsy until 2029?", "created_at": "2024-01-31T14:51:06.245020Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-06T21:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-06T21:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Founded in 2005, [Etsy](https://www.etsy.com/) started as an online marketplace for handmade items. It transitioned to a public company in 2014, expanding to include factory-made products. The COVID pandemic brought a transaction surge, especially in customized masks. Etsy has seen frequent leadership changes, with Josh Silverman at the helm since 2017. While some users and sellers express discontent over Etsy's shift towards larger corporate entities and its accommodation of sex work-related products in response to platforms like OnlyFans, the company has nonetheless experienced revenue growth in recent years.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if Josh Silverman serves continuously as CEO of Etsy from the launch of the question until January 1, 2029. The question immediately resolves \"No\" if his position as CEO ends before that, for any reason.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21303, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740392612.756073, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4602292478 ], "centers": [ 0.482 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.482 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740392612.756073, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4602292478 ], "centers": [ 0.482 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.482 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.518, 0.482 ], "means": [ 0.47874621566864695 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289538.084149, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289538.084149, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6475582609954782, 0.3524417390045218 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Founded in 2005, [Etsy](https://www.etsy.com/) started as an online marketplace for handmade items. It transitioned to a public company in 2014, expanding to include factory-made products. The COVID pandemic brought a transaction surge, especially in customized masks. Etsy has seen frequent leadership changes, with Josh Silverman at the helm since 2017. While some users and sellers express discontent over Etsy's shift towards larger corporate entities and its accommodation of sex work-related products in response to platforms like OnlyFans, the company has nonetheless experienced revenue growth in recent years." }, { "id": 21302, "title": "Will Vladimir Tenev continue to be CEO of RobinHood until 2029?", "short_title": "Tenev continues as RobinHood CEO?", "url_title": "Tenev continues as RobinHood CEO?", "slug": "tenev-continues-as-robinhood-ceo", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-31T14:51:04.374336Z", "published_at": "2024-02-03T21:17:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.580477Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-03T21:17:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:17:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21302, "title": "Will Vladimir Tenev continue to be CEO of RobinHood until 2029?", "created_at": "2024-01-31T14:51:04.374336Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:17:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-06T21:17:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-06T21:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/) sought to democratize finance for retail investors. Gaining popularity among young traders, it faced scrutiny during the 2021 GameStop saga and criticism for promoting risky investing. Despite its growth, Robinhood struggles with consistent profitability and an uncertain financial future.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if Vladimir Tenev serves continuously as CEO of RobinHood from the launch of the question until January 1, 2029 (including if he is serving out a notice period at that point). The question immediately resolves to \"No\" if his position as CEO ends before that, for whatever reason.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21302, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740392611.042454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1787949204 ], "centers": [ 0.385 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740392611.042454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1787949204 ], "centers": [ 0.385 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.615, 0.385 ], "means": [ 0.37542260249910686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287880.135821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287880.135821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7346818031556087, 0.2653181968443913 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/) sought to democratize finance for retail investors. Gaining popularity among young traders, it faced scrutiny during the 2021 GameStop saga and criticism for promoting risky investing. Despite its growth, Robinhood struggles with consistent profitability and an uncertain financial future." }, { "id": 21296, "title": "Vyhlásí WHO do 31.8. 2025 novou tzv. 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Informace o PHEIC, Emergency Commitees, spouštění PHEIC prostřednictvím International Health Regulations (IHR) a souvisejících tématech se můžete dočíst například [zde](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees). 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V posledních letech byl PHEIC vyhlášen několikrát, jednalo se např. o následující případy:\n\nPrasečí chřipka/H1N1 (2009–2010)\n\nDětská obrna (2014–dodnes)\n\nEbola (2014–2016)\n\nZika virus (2016)\n\nKivu Ebola (2019–2020)\n\nCOVID-19 (2020–2023)\n\nMpox (2022–2023)\n\n\nPHEIC není omezený pouze na infekční choroby, ale může být vyhlášen také v případě nebezpečí na chemické nebo radioaktivní bázi." }, { "id": 21280, "title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?", "short_title": "US Strikes Against Iran in Early February?", "url_title": "US Strikes Against Iran in Early February?", "slug": "us-strikes-against-iran-in-early-february", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-30T20:23:53.133953Z", "published_at": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.838031Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-02T21:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-06T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-06T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-02T21:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21280, "title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-30T20:23:53.133953Z", "open_time": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T06:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T06:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-06T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-02T21:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-02T21:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-06T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-02T21:38:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Monday January 29, 2024, the United States [reported](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3659809/3-us-service-members-killed-others-injured-in-jordan-following-drone-attack/) that three soldiers were killed and over 40 injured in Jordan in a drone attack. On January 30, President Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/politics/biden-jordan-attack-response/index.html) that he has decided how to respond, but the US has not yet publicly revealed its response.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 30, 2024, and before February 7, 2024, the United States publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against the Iranian military.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, the Iranian military will include official Iranian military personnel and equipment possessed and operated by Iran, and does **not** include the personnel or equipment of any groups which may be supported or backed by Iran.\n* Such an attack need not be on Iranian soil, and would include attacks against Iranian military forces operating outside the borders of Iran.\n* A public confirmation will be considered one in which an official acting on behalf of the US government makes a statement that satisfies these criteria, and does **not** include anonymous reports or leaks.", "post_id": 21280, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706911023.098472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706911023.098472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5831221208043748 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.05882936647585896, 0.1595009173996047, 0.015065545931906925, 0.009676709843694231, 0.007421660085292447, 0.26038121024534766, 0.012843180719326315, 0.0, 0.0028601984992038193, 0.00016905416761082872, 0.289779776595318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15862969408137675, 0.015246197439320123, 0.0, 0.43784669430957485, 0.26592511005958686, 1.07332404659517, 0.00131304905517034, 0.739673824816806, 0.7585130409043037, 0.0, 0.9517818733738987, 0.3928397353210616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4293338890537124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42414428827827383, 0.0, 0.6556558282118885, 0.0, 0.41479930378266616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2657239219227452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19904515625925434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8394353041229072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006953621189600731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05919335581064478, 0.0011330069667586447, 0.06386168475649698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11672803619581648, 0.03123377125130507, 0.5427265098150448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005792631881401083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21043505411779925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4620298011748537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6080660324018274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.766746134818593 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.983979825616373, "coverage": 0.35712846441150004, "baseline_score": -44.55069196226794, "spot_peer_score": 28.043258668839986, "peer_archived_score": 19.983979825616373, "baseline_archived_score": -44.55069196226794, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.043258668839986 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706908654.382475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706908654.382475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4978295955706128, 0.5021704044293872 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 243, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Monday January 29, 2024, the United States [reported](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3659809/3-us-service-members-killed-others-injured-in-jordan-following-drone-attack/) that three soldiers were killed and over 40 injured in Jordan in a drone attack. On January 30, President Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/30/politics/biden-jordan-attack-response/index.html) that he has decided how to respond, but the US has not yet publicly revealed its response." }, { "id": 21274, "title": "Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election?", "short_title": "Ohio-6th 2024 Special election", "url_title": "Ohio-6th 2024 Special election", "slug": "ohio-6th-2024-special-election", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-29T21:38:30.166744Z", "published_at": "2024-01-31T15:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.027346Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-31T15:58:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-12T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-12T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-31T15:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21274, "title": "Will the Republican Party retain Ohio's 6th congressional district (previously held by Bill Johnson) in the 2024 special election?", "created_at": "2024-01-29T21:38:30.166744Z", "open_time": "2024-01-31T15:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-03T15:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-03T15:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-12T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-12T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-12T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early January 2024, Rep. Bill Johnson communicated to the Governor of Ohio that he would be vacating his congressional seat effective of the 21st of January 2024 in order to take up position as the 10th President of Youngstown State University. \n\nOn the 4th of January, [Governor DeWine announced ] (https://governor.ohio.gov/media/news-and-media/governor-dewine-calls-special-election-for-ohios-6th-congressional-district) that the special election process was scheduled as followed: partisan primary elections will happen on the 19th of March, and the general election will happen on the 11th June 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report that a person representing the Republican Party has won the special election for OH's 6th district. If popular sources are in disagreement, an Ohio State source or statement will be used. 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"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As the capabilities of large language models have skyrocketed over the past couple of years, there has been [increasing](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/) [pressure](https://futureoflife.org/ai/six-month-letter-expires/) on the companies making these models to slow down, so that they do not charge into unwittingly developing models with [dangerous capabilities](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk).\n\nThis question asks if any of OpenAI, Google Deepmind, and Anthropic—arguably the top three AI companies—will pause their frontier training runs on account of concerns over large models’ safety.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, at least one of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announces a pause of all training runs above a certain size, citing safety reasons. The length of the pause does not matter.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The “size” in “pausing all training runs above a certain size” does not matter. In other words, this question is about a blanket pause on all runs above some size, whatever that size is. Therefore, a pause on training all models is sufficient for a Yes resolution.\n\nIf there is regulation that comes into force before January 1, 2026, which prevents at least one of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic from carrying out training runs above some size, then the question resolves as Yes.", "post_id": 21270, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763206816.477347, "end_time": 1764148732.745, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.006 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763206816.477347, "end_time": 1764148732.745, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.10117891275174025 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.331541127639595, 0.30192095571141037, 0.6086857774882356, 0.0844389378041889, 0.0, 0.02624670158459791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10972487483863327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 265, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As the capabilities of large language models have skyrocketed over the past couple of years, there has been [increasing](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/) [pressure](https://futureoflife.org/ai/six-month-letter-expires/) on the companies making these models to slow down, so that they do not charge into unwittingly developing models with [dangerous capabilities](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk).\n\nThis question asks if any of OpenAI, Google Deepmind, and Anthropic—arguably the top three AI companies—will pause their frontier training runs on account of concerns over large models’ safety." }, { "id": 21264, "title": "Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "NATO Article 5 action in 2024", "url_title": "NATO Article 5 action in 2024", "slug": "nato-article-5-action-in-2024", "author_id": 114868, "author_username": "penti", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-29T05:44:34.453403Z", "published_at": "2024-01-30T22:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.311842Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-30T22:58:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T03:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-30T22:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", 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"range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Article 5](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Parties%20agree%20that%20an,by%20Article%2051%20of%20the) of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' \"collective self defense\":\n\n“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.\n\nAny such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”\n\nArticle 5 action was taken for the first and only time after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the US. NATO Secretary General, Lord Robertson, issued a statement on September 12, 2001 that the attack would be covered under Article 5 if it was confirmed that the attack was directed from abroad, which was [affirmed on October 2, 2001](https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/1001/e1002a.htm). This resulted in the deployment of an international anti-terrorism task force to Afghanistan.\n\nFurther reading can be found [on NATO's website](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if after February 1, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, the North Atlantic Council takes NATO Article 5 action, according to credible sources.\n\nNATO Article 5 action is said to be taken if the North Atlantic Council publicly affirms that there has been an attack on a NATO member which is regarded as an action covered by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.", "fine_print": "If Article 5 is amended and no longer holds a similar meaning to its meaning on January 29, 2024, based on the judgement of admins, then the question is annulled.", "post_id": 21264, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735653718.870498, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735653718.870498, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011423603145765394 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.314203311381395, 1.7828113774537795, 1.0979346054871166, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04480921982561351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.30818217549408, "peer_score": 7.107629421005997, "coverage": 0.9980793225278903, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9980793225278903, "spot_peer_score": 13.468303500708878, "spot_baseline_score": 94.11063109464314, "baseline_archived_score": 98.30818217549408, "peer_archived_score": 7.107629421005997, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.468303500708878, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 94.11063109464314 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287803.63311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287803.63311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Article 5](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Parties%20agree%20that%20an,by%20Article%2051%20of%20the) of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' \"collective self defense\":\n\n“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.\n\nAny such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”\n\nArticle 5 action was taken for the first and only time after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the US. NATO Secretary General, Lord Robertson, issued a statement on September 12, 2001 that the attack would be covered under Article 5 if it was confirmed that the attack was directed from abroad, which was [affirmed on October 2, 2001](https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/1001/e1002a.htm). This resulted in the deployment of an international anti-terrorism task force to Afghanistan.\n\nFurther reading can be found [on NATO's website](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm)." }, { "id": 21256, "title": "Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?", "short_title": "Fury vs Usyk", "url_title": "Fury vs Usyk", "slug": "fury-vs-usyk", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-28T09:55:57.874336Z", "published_at": "2024-02-26T02:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.706445Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-26T02:56:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-17T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-17T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T23:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T23:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-26T02:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21256, "title": "Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?", "created_at": "2024-01-28T09:55:57.874336Z", "open_time": "2024-02-26T02:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-29T02:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-29T02:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T23:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T23:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-18T23:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-17T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-17T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The heavyweight matchup is scheduled to take place on 18 May 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This fight will be for the [undisputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undisputed_championship_(boxing)) heavyweight champion. Both fighters are currently undefeated in their professional careers. \n\nAccording to Wikipedia: \n\n>[Tyson Luke Fury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Fury), \"Gypsy King\" (born 12 August 1988) is a British professional boxer. He has held the World Boxing Council (WBC) heavyweight title since 2020. \n\n>Height\t6 ft 9 in (206 cm)\nReach\t85 in (216 cm)\nStance\tOrthodox\nBoxing record\nTotal fights\t35\nWins\t34\nWins by KO\t24\nDraws\t1\n\n\n\n>[Oleksandr Oleksandrovych Usyk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Usyk) (Ukrainian: Олекса́ндр Олекса́ндрович У́сик; born 17 January 1987) is a Ukrainian professional boxer. He has held multiple world championships in two weight classes, including the unified heavyweight titles since 2021, and the Ring magazine title since 2022. He has also held the International Boxing Organization (IBO) title since 2021. \n\n>Height\t6 ft 3 in (191 cm)\nReach\t78 in (198 cm)\nStance\tSouthpaw\nBoxing record\nTotal fights\t21\nWins\t21\nWins by KO\t14", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if Tyson Fury wins the boxing bout against Oleksandr Usyk. It will resolve No if Usyk wins or there is a draw. If there is no fight between the two boxers before May 19th, 2024, the question is annulled.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21256, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715845923.561647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715845923.561647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.501803409800495 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2102351668388627, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.5855677857949507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899439243127377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.219467328538648, "coverage": 0.9955948881629253, "baseline_score": 14.338517870281008, "spot_peer_score": -1.200497453511495, "peer_archived_score": 2.219467328538648, "baseline_archived_score": 14.338517870281008, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.200497453511495 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715845923.561647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715845923.561647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6976815900070023, 0.30231840999299775 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The heavyweight matchup is scheduled to take place on 18 May 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This fight will be for the [undisputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undisputed_championship_(boxing)) heavyweight champion. Both fighters are currently undefeated in their professional careers. \n\nAccording to Wikipedia: \n\n>[Tyson Luke Fury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Fury), \"Gypsy King\" (born 12 August 1988) is a British professional boxer. He has held the World Boxing Council (WBC) heavyweight title since 2020. \n\n>Height\t6 ft 9 in (206 cm)\nReach\t85 in (216 cm)\nStance\tOrthodox\nBoxing record\nTotal fights\t35\nWins\t34\nWins by KO\t24\nDraws\t1\n\n\n\n>[Oleksandr Oleksandrovych Usyk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Usyk) (Ukrainian: Олекса́ндр Олекса́ндрович У́сик; born 17 January 1987) is a Ukrainian professional boxer. He has held multiple world championships in two weight classes, including the unified heavyweight titles since 2021, and the Ring magazine title since 2022. He has also held the International Boxing Organization (IBO) title since 2021. \n\n>Height\t6 ft 3 in (191 cm)\nReach\t78 in (198 cm)\nStance\tSouthpaw\nBoxing record\nTotal fights\t21\nWins\t21\nWins by KO\t14" }, { "id": 21251, "title": "Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?", "short_title": "UNRWA Staff Involved in Oct 7 Hamas Attacks?", "url_title": "UNRWA Staff Involved in Oct 7 Hamas Attacks?", "slug": "unrwa-staff-involved-in-oct-7-hamas-attacks", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-27T00:26:52.153949Z", "published_at": "2024-02-01T20:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.278591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-01T20:56:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-01T20:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21251, "title": "Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?", "created_at": "2024-01-27T00:26:52.153949Z", "open_time": "2024-02-01T20:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-04T20:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-04T20:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), an agency dedicated to supporting Palestinian refugees, recently faced serious allegations when [Israel accused](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68104203) 12 of its employees of involvement in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack. \n\nThese allegations prompted the U.S. to pause additional funding to UNRWA, marking a significant turn in the Biden administration's approach to the agency. In response to these allegations, UNRWA's chief, Philippe Lazzarini, took immediate action by terminating the contracts of the accused staff members and initiating an independent investigation of the claims. \n\nAdditionally, the United Nations Secretary-General [announced](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/01/1145942) an \"urgent and comprehensive independent review of UNRWA\" to address the allegations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2025, an independent review commissioned by the United Nations confirms the involvement of United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) staff in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks.", "fine_print": "- \"Involvement\" is defined as substantively supporting, facilitating or participating in the planning or execution of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. Mere acquaintance or indirect association with the attackers without evidence of material contribution to the attacks will not be considered as \"involvement.\"\n- If, as of the resolution date of this question, the independent review has yielded only preliminary or partial findings, the question may still resolve \"Yes\" if such preliminary or partial findings explicitly state that there is credible evidence of UNRWA staff involvement in the attacks.", "post_id": 21251, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727193977.744703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727193977.744703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.30216034089620786 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.8425545920654098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013286097205509028, 1.1138055724109919, 0.22688437022518046, 0.646956603921349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16276424848419233, 0.0, 0.16098235374781072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5338394326564748, 0.06124341082421378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2674291063988385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3138753164782079, 0.0, 0.0, 1.427032083479478, 0.0, 1.3508425987144284, 0.0, 0.7104289439189292, 0.06805199387035807, 0.0, 0.4273870684649609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39618411090454325, 1.1593238722178194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09215390124464654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2898717268244653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33953082659674816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004155532194542278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006513847192233464, 0.0, 0.3669337095617011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35817494220151597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46744343959454415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08346609532897402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4960965120584363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08568580771817419 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727193977.744703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727193977.744703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9865672957207535, 0.013432704279246444 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 269, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), an agency dedicated to supporting Palestinian refugees, recently faced serious allegations when [Israel accused](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68104203) 12 of its employees of involvement in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack. \n\nThese allegations prompted the U.S. to pause additional funding to UNRWA, marking a significant turn in the Biden administration's approach to the agency. In response to these allegations, UNRWA's chief, Philippe Lazzarini, took immediate action by terminating the contracts of the accused staff members and initiating an independent investigation of the claims. \n\nAdditionally, the United Nations Secretary-General [announced](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/01/1145942) an \"urgent and comprehensive independent review of UNRWA\" to address the allegations." }, { "id": 21245, "title": "Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?", "short_title": "Lack of Major World Events Before 2050?", "url_title": "Lack of Major World Events Before 2050?", "slug": "lack-of-major-world-events-before-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-26T16:53:27.379876Z", "published_at": "2024-01-31T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T04:34:34.470958Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A number of influential thinkers have argued that humanity is at a period of elevated risk of significant global catastrophe, and that the risk may be higher than at any point in history. In [The Precipice](https://theprecipice.com/), Toby Ord makes the case that [global catastrophic risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk) — from existing threats such as nuclear war and global pandemics, as well as new technologies like artificial intelligence — is higher than ever and requires humanity to devote more resources to reducing these risks. Similarly, Holden Karnofsky has argued that we are living through [the most important century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/), particularly due to the development of artificial intelligence and the potential for it to surpass human capabilities, leading to a period of high risk and dramatic change.\n\nWhile there are some estimates of individual risks, such as in The Precipice and [on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/), it may be the case that a number of these risks are highly correlated, and estimates of the correlated risks are rarer. This question selects a few events that would have significant global impact and asks what the chances are of arriving it to 2050 without any of them occurring.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before January 1, 2050:\n\n* The development of artificial general intelligence, which will be considered to occur if the question ***[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)*** resolves to a date before January 1, 2050.\n* 1,000 battle-related deaths occur between the US and China, which will be considered to occur if the question ***[Will there be a US-China war before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21319/us-china-war-before-2050/)*** resolves as **Yes**.\n* A nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war, which will be considered to occur if the question ***[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)*** resolves as **Yes**.\n* World War III, which will be considered to occur if the question ***[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)*** resolves as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21245, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762662864.265901, "end_time": 1787559418.783, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762662864.265901, "end_time": 1787559418.783, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.1989636704308613 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8525967834343531, 2.959565724487771, 1.3006966298977742, 0.3919005326230999, 1.0275415123510472, 3.3439830269132083, 0.9484171598123546, 0.039098528828555634, 0.0, 0.042106869190195996, 0.3314699804132972, 0.9586902520104967, 0.6332421833731774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02143839789076389, 0.16918195870743188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6095477404633999, 0.0, 0.629366582133099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4319520069546581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009481888734741973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9039180554993764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18201555658236956, 0.002840861944713509, 0.0, 0.00035270647198307447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.527233546164966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11104377932687334, 0.0020128231617567746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2753753141033182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6989253593884086 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289845.967976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289845.967976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9437737599375078, 0.05622624006249227 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 167, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A number of influential thinkers have argued that humanity is at a period of elevated risk of significant global catastrophe, and that the risk may be higher than at any point in history. In [The Precipice](https://theprecipice.com/), Toby Ord makes the case that [global catastrophic risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk) — from existing threats such as nuclear war and global pandemics, as well as new technologies like artificial intelligence — is higher than ever and requires humanity to devote more resources to reducing these risks. Similarly, Holden Karnofsky has argued that we are living through [the most important century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/), particularly due to the development of artificial intelligence and the potential for it to surpass human capabilities, leading to a period of high risk and dramatic change.\n\nWhile there are some estimates of individual risks, such as in The Precipice and [on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/), it may be the case that a number of these risks are highly correlated, and estimates of the correlated risks are rarer. This question selects a few events that would have significant global impact and asks what the chances are of arriving it to 2050 without any of them occurring." }, { "id": 21185, "title": "Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Hungary Approves Sweden's NATO Bid by March?", "url_title": "Hungary Approves Sweden's NATO Bid by March?", "slug": "hungary-approves-swedens-nato-bid-by-march", "author_id": 144022, "author_username": "Langley", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-24T12:54:12.773668Z", "published_at": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.174580Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-26T15:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-28T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-28T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-26T15:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 164, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21185, "title": "Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-24T12:54:12.773668Z", "open_time": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-03T10:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-03T10:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-28T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-26T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-26T15:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-28T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-26T15:57:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hungary currently stands as the last country left to approve Sweden's accession into the NATO, in contrast to repeated [promises](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-sweden-nato-membership-orban-last-holdout-13cb5837bc1819382a08531a879fa348) that the country will not be the last one to do so. The Turkish Grand National Assembly [supported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/23/europe/turkey-vote-sweden-nato-intl/index.html) Sweden's accession on 23rd of January. \n\nThe Hungarian National Assembly is currently on a [winter break](https://www.parlament.hu/web/house-of-the-national-assembly/operation-of-the-national-assembly) and will convene again sometime in the middle of February, unless an extraordinary session is convened. This can be achieved if the President, government or one-fifth of of the MPs support such a motion.\n\nSweden was historically a neutral country, which however [changed](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/majority-swedes-favour-joining-nato-poll-2022-03-04/) after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In May 2022 the country applied to NATO together with Finland. Most NATO members approved Sweden's accession by September 2022, thus only Turkey and Hungary remained. While Turkey stated its conditions (e.g. a tougher stance against PKK members living in Sweden), Hungary never did, only repeatedly stated that they strongly support Sweden NATO accession, even though they disapprove of Sweden critique of the state of Hungary's democracy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2024, the National Assembly of Hungary has ratified Sweden's accession to NATO. Resolution will be determined according to reporting by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Note that presidential ratification by Hungary of Sweden's accession is not required for this question, only approval by the Hungarian National Assembly is required.", "post_id": 21185, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708965183.731355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.975 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708965183.731355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.975 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.025000000000000022, 0.975 ], "means": [ 0.9179935333837739 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0439799670408973e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4488561805494543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001567288836460947, 5.996070862184824e-05, 0.0, 0.001416532342329732, 0.001364430481302169, 0.0, 0.025615586389357764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024092395364302367, 0.0, 0.00041589438459065683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007265200500211114, 0.002319206586072794, 0.0009415162563067682, 0.0, 0.002743074642062225, 0.0, 0.0016559870744766302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016374221830805047, 0.0006070659330260063, 0.0, 0.0007931199551926177, 0.0, 0.0001220456527305812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013156551915271009, 4.2941509948727554e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9397262977934855e-05, 8.108625351937246e-05, 0.0005536743169690813, 0.0029883588709427276, 0.0, 0.013818134439196064, 0.27559767038941074, 0.4306817877614645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004820660131273943, 0.0, 0.0027833536574810966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.451702372965979, 0.002590522991462575, 6.99679039286832e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39649943071412247, 0.4151652540635673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1100279917954938, 0.09740361054409445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08271574876704357, 0.7598923398664792, 1.333628525389487, 0.3208573644041564, 0.031741903479969774, 0.13675856121664787, 0.020566356318291627, 0.30827044043086593, 0.0, 0.9917368620599651, 0.231532998878882, 0.07143229051450811, 3.0287285709240157, 0.7563293939036034, 2.0333232727570785, 1.5931664088563038, 9.865228350869307 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.026096483293037, "coverage": 0.9354415572588519, "baseline_score": 20.00525720863474, "spot_peer_score": 29.827013559011906, "peer_archived_score": 15.026096483293037, "baseline_archived_score": 20.00525720863474, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.827013559011906 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708965186.705011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708965186.705011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06269428533918153, 0.9373057146608185 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 839, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hungary currently stands as the last country left to approve Sweden's accession into the NATO, in contrast to repeated [promises](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-sweden-nato-membership-orban-last-holdout-13cb5837bc1819382a08531a879fa348) that the country will not be the last one to do so. The Turkish Grand National Assembly [supported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/23/europe/turkey-vote-sweden-nato-intl/index.html) Sweden's accession on 23rd of January. \n\nThe Hungarian National Assembly is currently on a [winter break](https://www.parlament.hu/web/house-of-the-national-assembly/operation-of-the-national-assembly) and will convene again sometime in the middle of February, unless an extraordinary session is convened. This can be achieved if the President, government or one-fifth of of the MPs support such a motion.\n\nSweden was historically a neutral country, which however [changed](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/majority-swedes-favour-joining-nato-poll-2022-03-04/) after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In May 2022 the country applied to NATO together with Finland. Most NATO members approved Sweden's accession by September 2022, thus only Turkey and Hungary remained. While Turkey stated its conditions (e.g. a tougher stance against PKK members living in Sweden), Hungary never did, only repeatedly stated that they strongly support Sweden NATO accession, even though they disapprove of Sweden critique of the state of Hungary's democracy." }, { "id": 21184, "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?", "short_title": "Consumer Sentiment in February 2024?", "url_title": "Consumer Sentiment in February 2024?", "slug": "consumer-sentiment-in-february-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-23T22:47:27.365881Z", "published_at": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.431328Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-24T15:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-24T15:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21184, "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-23T22:47:27.365881Z", "open_time": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-26T18:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-26T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-24T15:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-24T15:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-24T15:47:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is a monthly survey assessing views on the economy. The index was above 70 for [only the month of July in 2023](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/tables.html), having dropped to low values as inflation surged in 2021. Despite the [decline in inflation in 2023](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1eyFO), consumer sentiment had remained low. However, in December of 2023 the index increased to 69.7, up from 61.3 in November of 2023, and then increased again in the preliminary release for January 2024 to 78.8, the highest value since July of 2021.\n\nThe preliminary release contains the results from [roughly 420 interviews](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/faq.php), with around 600 responses in the final figure. The preliminary figure for February 2024 is [scheduled to be published on February 16](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=73945).\n\nThe index is [calculated from responses to five questions](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770) about the state of a respondents personal financial outlook and their perception of national economic conditions. 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The index was above 70 for [only the month of July in 2023](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/tables.html), having dropped to low values as inflation surged in 2021. Despite the [decline in inflation in 2023](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1eyFO), consumer sentiment had remained low. However, in December of 2023 the index increased to 69.7, up from 61.3 in November of 2023, and then increased again in the preliminary release for January 2024 to 78.8, the highest value since July of 2021.\n\nThe preliminary release contains the results from [roughly 420 interviews](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/faq.php), with around 600 responses in the final figure. The preliminary figure for February 2024 is [scheduled to be published on February 16](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=73945).\n\nThe index is [calculated from responses to five questions](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770) about the state of a respondents personal financial outlook and their perception of national economic conditions. 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The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-cocaine-cartels-violence-murder-daniel-naboa-columbia-crime) related to the drug trade in Ecuador and the [escape](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/who-is-fito-jose-macias-ecuador-gang-leader-rcna133435) of gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) from prison.\n\nOn January 19 it [was reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68038970) that Adolfo Macías Villamar's family had been expelled from Argentina.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) is in Ecuadorian custody. If Adolfo Macías Villamar dies before being taken into custody this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21183, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711918551.311685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711918551.311685, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.041418330500697195 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.889372387161417, 4.90165211976109, 1.562563349866568, 0.0, 0.12522124967667153, 1.2508845477772872, 0.24658074211745412, 0.04325450585999784, 0.007084270917400775, 0.0004940915054150324, 0.08470806979100198, 0.016501645838568113, 0.01382753425254863, 0.02721846152446844, 0.021304056001353065, 2.0150262537974473, 0.030621207228113664, 0.0022267761436016178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7906555350111786, 0.0, 0.003260899582300764, 0.0176552495065685, 0.02742650200868674, 0.03982368349148002, 0.0, 0.0001435456002026656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007806905830242591, 0.0, 0.0019434189214753161, 0.0008934406256051884, 0.0, 0.010489765833368194, 0.0002984801894823708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005162769561062351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0579104283009519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.157877084314075, "coverage": 0.9998245151756453, "baseline_score": 76.38050002836749, "spot_peer_score": 2.1653163382322793, "peer_archived_score": 6.157877084314075, "baseline_archived_score": 76.38050002836749, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.1653163382322793 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711918551.353426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711918551.353426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 491, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 8, 2024, Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa [declared a 60-day state of emergency](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-state-emergency-amid-prison-chaos-2024-01-08/). 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The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-cocaine-cartels-violence-murder-daniel-naboa-columbia-crime) related to the drug trade in Ecuador and the [escape](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/who-is-fito-jose-macias-ecuador-gang-leader-rcna133435) of gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) from prison.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 23, 2024, and before April 1, 2024, the government of Ecuador does either of the following:\n\n* Extends the existing 60 day state of emergency at least one additional day\n* Lets the existing state of emergency lapse and then declares another state of emergency", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21182, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709924574.804095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709924574.804095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7327378004753313 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.011309937432059526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005305652088145888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3368000919432843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.760622200710919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.645840029309925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.573601365905194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019040347171449423, 0.009177111268178266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09580740838405215, 0.680162133115384, 0.041136644328955516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1029390209692679, 1.228660790719781, 0.7425024783685504, 0.4546001119709759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6370901578811888, 0.2969355880682738, 0.20342197809775475, 0.0362444475523413, 0.08910285564825525, 0.7327627179295968, 0.18895901074409505, 0.45662324786718267, 0.357933793421635, 0.30489317703694546, 0.6918276036237596, 0.0, 0.4039814101405767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026544712507148856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07688730020434764, 0.1783898312420707, 0.0, 0.9497917989939786, 0.0, 0.5415258598902764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.176201127085754 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.871163461700121, "coverage": 0.6517193475288009, "baseline_score": 25.124025834212855, "spot_peer_score": 21.868679445400566, "peer_archived_score": 15.871163461700121, "baseline_archived_score": 25.124025834212855, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.868679445400566 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709891133.857084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709891133.857084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.28704766661548864, 0.7129523333845114 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 291, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 8, 2024, Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa [declared a 60-day state of emergency](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-state-emergency-amid-prison-chaos-2024-01-08/). The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-cocaine-cartels-violence-murder-daniel-naboa-columbia-crime) related to the drug trade in Ecuador and the [escape](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/who-is-fito-jose-macias-ecuador-gang-leader-rcna133435) of gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) from prison." }, { "id": 21167, "title": "Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?", "short_title": "1 EUR costs less than 1 USD before 2026", "url_title": "1 EUR costs less than 1 USD before 2026", "slug": "1-eur-costs-less-than-1-usd-before-2026", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-23T18:57:28.614993Z", "published_at": "2024-01-25T19:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T21:35:51.529492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-25T19:57:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-25T19:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21167, "title": "Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-01-23T18:57:28.614993Z", "open_time": "2024-01-25T19:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-28T19:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-28T19:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After reaching its maximum of `1.5852` in July 2008 the EUR/USD exchange rate has significantly declined over the years. In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.01.2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between 1 January 2024 and 1 January 2026, the EUR/USD exchange rate as [reported by Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD) is less than `1.0000`.", "fine_print": "Should Google Finance become unavailable, alternative sources like xe.com or [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EURUSD%3DX/history/#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) can be used.\n\nIf the Euro or US Dollar ceases to exist before the resolution date, the question will be annulled.", "post_id": 21167, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763069740.64666, "end_time": 1763693035.995, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763069740.64666, "end_time": 1763693035.995, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.07339834780910934 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7120813315280077, 0.8117493037268142, 2.9303362843851883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36426054758734683, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 1.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.11747478265223274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289746.840446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289746.840446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9192210889046755, 0.08077891109532458 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 248, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After reaching its maximum of `1.5852` in July 2008 the EUR/USD exchange rate has significantly declined over the years. In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.01.2024." }, { "id": 21147, "title": "Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?", "short_title": "AI model >= 1e26 FLOP", "url_title": "AI model >= 1e26 FLOP", "slug": "ai-model-1e26-flop", "author_id": 137452, "author_username": "odelaney", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-23T07:40:39.487673Z", "published_at": "2024-02-15T01:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.873626Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-15T01:25:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T01:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, 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"actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-07T16:42:39.180876Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 30, 2023, President Biden implemented an [Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence/) ([EO 14110](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/11/01/2023-24283/safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence)) Among other things, this Order requires developers of powerful AI models—those “trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 10^26 integer or floating-point operations”—to comply with certain reporting requirements.\n\nAs of February 2024, no model exists that meets the Order’s criteria. The largest known model is Gemini Ultra at 9e25 FLOP, according to [Epoch](https://epochai.org/mlinputs/visualization). In the last decade, twelve new models have been released which were at the time the largest ever, and of these twelve, ten were released less than a year after the previous largest model ([Epoch](https://epochai.org/mlinputs/visualization?startLargeScaleEra=2015-9-1&largeScaleAction=ignore&outliersAction=ignore&recordSettersAction=isolate&bigAlphagoAction=remove&plotRegressions=false&preset=Record%20setting%20models%20-%20compute&systemNames=show%20record%20setters&limitPanAndZoom=false&labelEras=false&showLegend=false&showDoublingTimes=false&labelPoints=true))", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, an AI model has been deemed by the US Government (any relevant agency or department) to have been trained using more than 1e26 FLOP, as specified in clause 4.2 (b) (i) of the [Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/).\n\nIf the Executive Order on AI is revoked or materially amended such that the 1e26 criterion no longer applies, then the question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "It must be publicly reported by the resolution date that such a model has been trained (as judged by the US Government). For example, if the US Government determines in January 2026 that a qualifying AI model existed in 2025, this will not count for resolution.\n\nThe Executive Order on AI will be deemed to have been revoked or materially amended if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20522/ai-model-reporting-in-us-at-end-of-2025/) (on AI model reporting in the US) resolves as No, or [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20279/executive-order-on-ai-repealed/)—“Executive Order on AI Repealed”—resolves as Yes, before the present question resolves.", "post_id": 21147, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741269148.524521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741269148.524521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8212722164563623 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25741247186764954, 0.0, 1.399892862493966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.3241864722294797, 0.10527918291777463, 0.33432944568041745, 0.29853580031441634, 0.4601175471555784, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.28304800047084083, 0.4978514403183156, 2.6958301632308457 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287581.099591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287581.099591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.056081225458533224, 0.9439187745414668 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 30, 2023, President Biden implemented an [Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence/) ([EO 14110](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/11/01/2023-24283/safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence)) Among other things, this Order requires developers of powerful AI models—those “trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 10^26 integer or floating-point operations”—to comply with certain reporting requirements.\n\nAs of February 2024, no model exists that meets the Order’s criteria. The largest known model is Gemini Ultra at 9e25 FLOP, according to [Epoch](https://epochai.org/mlinputs/visualization). In the last decade, twelve new models have been released which were at the time the largest ever, and of these twelve, ten were released less than a year after the previous largest model ([Epoch](https://epochai.org/mlinputs/visualization?startLargeScaleEra=2015-9-1&largeScaleAction=ignore&outliersAction=ignore&recordSettersAction=isolate&bigAlphagoAction=remove&plotRegressions=false&preset=Record%20setting%20models%20-%20compute&systemNames=show%20record%20setters&limitPanAndZoom=false&labelEras=false&showLegend=false&showDoublingTimes=false&labelPoints=true))" }, { "id": 21146, "title": "Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?", "short_title": "Non-tech company trains AI model", "url_title": "Non-tech company trains AI model", "slug": "non-tech-company-trains-ai-model", "author_id": 137452, "author_username": "odelaney", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-23T07:20:01.438979Z", "published_at": "2024-02-15T00:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.116903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-15T00:16:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-04T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T00:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T08:57:39.871996Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2907, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future of AI", "slug": "future-of-ai", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/foa-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-31T00:00:35Z", "close_date": "2048-01-02T00:00:35Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-31T01:10:36.040444Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T02:00:50.240050Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2907, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future of AI", "slug": "future-of-ai", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/foa-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-31T00:00:35Z", "close_date": "2048-01-02T00:00:35Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-31T01:10:36.040444Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T02:00:50.240050Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21146, "title": "Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-01-23T07:20:01.438979Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T00:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-18T00:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-18T00:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-11T21:45:51.750142Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-04T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "To date, frontier AI models have been created exclusively by tech companies. This may change if other companies decide that having an in-house model, trained on their proprietary data, will be sufficiently valuable to warrant training their own frontier model.\n\nThe number of companies producing frontier AI models is relevant for AI safety and governance because, all else equal, more actors results in more coordination difficulties. Additionally, there being more actors makes it more likely that one of the actors will be reckless.\n\n—\n\nThanks to user dschartz, whose [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17280/frontier-ai-lab-in-china/) inspired ours.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2024 and January 1, 2026, there is a non-tech company that trains a frontier AI model and is in the [Fortune 500 Global list](https://fortune.com/ranking/global500/) in the year the model is first publicly known to exist.\n\nWe define a “non-tech company” as a company which (a) is not in the [technology](https://fortune.com/ranking/global500/search/?sector=Technology) sector according to Fortune, and also (b) is neither Amazon nor Alibaba. (These two are classed as “retail” companies, but for our purposes they are still tech.)\n\nWe furthermore define a \"frontier AI model\" as one that was trained with at least one-tenth as much FLOP as the largest known model at that time. For example, as of January 2024, the largest known model is Gemini Ultra, [estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/data/epochdb/visualization) to have trained with 9e25 FLOP. Thus by our definition, an AI model must have been trained with at least 9e24 FLOP to count as frontier, at present. This threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nA model's training compute will be established by its developer's own publication or through a credible report, for example Epoch's “[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)” database (the relevant columns being “Publication date” and “Training compute (FLOP)”).", "fine_print": "It must be publicly reported during the question period—i.e., before 2026—that such a company has trained such a model. For example, information reported in January 2026 that a qualifying company plus model existed in 2025 will not count for resolution.", "post_id": 21146, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741713544.653463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.013 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741713544.653463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.013 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.18271657859469467 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.9457430403376368, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.281024336275, 0.3764295304079803, 1.230887815716027, 0.32677805160011447, 0.17305452335961788, 0.09988641768552058, 0.8075193842755515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.5831626782385539, "peer_score": 0.04102729206114007, "coverage": 0.026833390542797847, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9955929679818487, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": -0.5831626782385539, "peer_archived_score": 0.04102729206114007, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289455.917521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289455.917521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9946105742864553, 0.005389425713544671 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "To date, frontier AI models have been created exclusively by tech companies. This may change if other companies decide that having an in-house model, trained on their proprietary data, will be sufficiently valuable to warrant training their own frontier model.\n\nThe number of companies producing frontier AI models is relevant for AI safety and governance because, all else equal, more actors results in more coordination difficulties. Additionally, there being more actors makes it more likely that one of the actors will be reckless.\n\n—\n\nThanks to user dschartz, whose [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17280/frontier-ai-lab-in-china/) inspired ours." }, { "id": 21140, "title": "Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030?", "short_title": "CDU open to AfD coalition by 2030", "url_title": "CDU open to AfD coalition by 2030", "slug": "cdu-open-to-afd-coalition-by-2030", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-22T15:40:49.869952Z", "published_at": "2024-02-25T02:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T18:00:38.953013Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-25T02:50:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21140, "title": "Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-01-22T15:40:49.869952Z", "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-28T02:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-28T02:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The AfD is a German right-wing party that is polling with a large margin as the second strongest party in Germany (at 22% of the vote). [Wikipedia](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_21._Deutschen_Bundestag/Umfragen_und_Prognosen)\n\nThe CDU is a center-right party that is polling as the strongest party, with 30%. In 2018 and 2020 the CDU has made public declarations not to work with the AfD:\n\n> The following applies to the CDU in Germany: There is no cooperation with the AfD - neither in direct nor indirect form. [Translation from CDU website](https://archiv.cdu.de/system/tdf/media/dokumente/cdu_deutschlands_unsere_haltung_zu_linkspartei_und_afd_0.pdf?file=1)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if the [Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) announces that it is open to negotiating a coalition, at the federal level, that includes the [Alternative for Germany (AfD)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany)", "fine_print": "The announcement has to be from an official channel of the party and it has to be based on regular decision processes from the party. \n\n- A hacking attack on its website or a rogue spokesperson would not count. \n- Statements from individual politicians, even from politicians in party leadership positions, would not count.\n- Announcement that a coalition has been formed would count for resolution", "post_id": 21140, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762631680.526425, "end_time": 1764299780.200776, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762631680.526425, "end_time": 1764299780.200776, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12943397593535172 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.17178595090088214, 0.3445918901109067, 0.9682994750860112, 0.7132177304384747, 0.0, 1.7870031883629214, 0.6019627254324547, 2.5720416960464787, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.37974261668515136, 0.5506534361945985, 0.702954941534258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0330072470874323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.107037780634616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28211668489493613, 0.0, 0.015538817933844495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288308.513411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288308.513411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.984801243865601, 0.015198756134399022 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 186, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The AfD is a German right-wing party that is polling with a large margin as the second strongest party in Germany (at 22% of the vote). [Wikipedia](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_21._Deutschen_Bundestag/Umfragen_und_Prognosen)\n\nThe CDU is a center-right party that is polling as the strongest party, with 30%. In 2018 and 2020 the CDU has made public declarations not to work with the AfD:\n\n> The following applies to the CDU in Germany: There is no cooperation with the AfD - neither in direct nor indirect form. [Translation from CDU website](https://archiv.cdu.de/system/tdf/media/dokumente/cdu_deutschlands_unsere_haltung_zu_linkspartei_und_afd_0.pdf?file=1)" }, { "id": 21139, "title": "Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?", "short_title": "The one hour genome", "url_title": "The one hour genome", "slug": "the-one-hour-genome", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-22T05:53:08.176894Z", "published_at": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T00:06:53.885759Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21139, "title": "Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?", "created_at": "2024-01-22T05:53:08.176894Z", "open_time": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-19T18:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-19T18:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Question is largely taken from these two questions about the [cost of a genome in 2031 in 2021 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11371/human-genome-sequencing-cost-in-2031/) ([alternatively](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12807/cost-of-sequencing-whole-human-genome/) ) and [labor productivity in 2032 in the US in 2017 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12916/us-gdp-per-hour-worked-productivity/). As of January 22, 2024, the former has a community prediction of $68.18 and the latter has a community median of $90.70, hence under those parameters, this question would likely resolve yes, as the latter figure uses more deflated dollars.\n\nQuestion is a binary that simply asks whether average labor productivity per hour in 2031 would be lower than the costs for sequencing a full human genome in 2031.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the cost of sequencing a single human genome is less than the value of 1 hour of labor productivity in the US according to the most recent information available on December 31, 2031.\n\nThe genome cost part of the question will be determined by information provided by the [US National Human Genome Research Institute](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data). If that is not available, then an alternative source will be used.\n\nUS labor productivity will be resolved using data from the [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-pennworldtable?tab=chart&country=~USA).\n\nThe resolution will be based on the nominal values on the resolution date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21139, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762733203.069931, "end_time": 1765188734.959776, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762733203.069931, "end_time": 1765188734.959776, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7640337678343752 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 1.6537484749236215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16200818773240888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.206986644946858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287773.902595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287773.902595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.33241556760512936, 0.6675844323948706 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Question is largely taken from these two questions about the [cost of a genome in 2031 in 2021 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11371/human-genome-sequencing-cost-in-2031/) ([alternatively](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12807/cost-of-sequencing-whole-human-genome/) ) and [labor productivity in 2032 in the US in 2017 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12916/us-gdp-per-hour-worked-productivity/). As of January 22, 2024, the former has a community prediction of $68.18 and the latter has a community median of $90.70, hence under those parameters, this question would likely resolve yes, as the latter figure uses more deflated dollars.\n\nQuestion is a binary that simply asks whether average labor productivity per hour in 2031 would be lower than the costs for sequencing a full human genome in 2031." } ] }
