Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=320
{ "count": 6255, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=340", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=300", "results": [ { "id": 39600, "title": "Will Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea in 2025?", "slug": "will-maersk-resume-shipping-in-the-red-sea-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:51.009515Z", "published_at": "2025-10-06T11:12:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T12:43:00.499242Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:51.248607Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T12:42:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T12:42:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-06T11:12:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38977, "title": "Will Maersk resume shipping in the Red Sea in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:51.009911Z", "open_time": "2025-10-06T11:12:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-06T12:42:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-06T12:42:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T12:42:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T12:42:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:41:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31277). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAfter the [2023 Israeli invasion of Gaza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip), the [Houthis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement) started attacking vessels going through the Red Sea, particularly those crossing [Bab el Mandeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bab-el-Mandeb), in support of Hamas. Until March 2024, the Houthis [had attacked](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis) more than 60 vessels, leading to a significant reduction in trading volume going through the Red Sea. Despite military operations from both [the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Prosperity_Guardian) and [the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Aspides), trading volumes have remained low. Specifically, Maersk [paused shipping indefinitely](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/maersk-pauses-shipping-operations-red-sea-indefinitely-weekend-houthi-attack) in January 2024, with its CEO saying that they don't expect to resume until [well into 2025](https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/maersk-not-expecting-to-resume-suez-route-this-year-g0mmr98nn).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31277,\"question_id\":30920}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Maersk announces or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that shipping through the Red Sea has resumed before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "* An announcement of a partial resumption of Red Sea activity will resolve this question as **Yes**. Reports of Maersk ships traveling the Red Sea will also resolve the question as **Yes** if, in the judgment of Metaculus, the event represents a change to official Maersk policy, allowing its ships to travel through the Red Sea.\n* Reports that this will happen at some point in the future will only resolve this question as **Yes** if that point is within the calendar year 2025 *and* that date is reached without a significant change in plans.", "post_id": 39600, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759754337.191033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759754337.191033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19631460987972826 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 8.0, 4.0, 1.0, 28.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:41:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31277). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAfter the [2023 Israeli invasion of Gaza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip), the [Houthis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement) started attacking vessels going through the Red Sea, particularly those crossing [Bab el Mandeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bab-el-Mandeb), in support of Hamas. Until March 2024, the Houthis [had attacked](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis) more than 60 vessels, leading to a significant reduction in trading volume going through the Red Sea. Despite military operations from both [the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Prosperity_Guardian) and [the EU](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Aspides), trading volumes have remained low. Specifically, Maersk [paused shipping indefinitely](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/maersk-pauses-shipping-operations-red-sea-indefinitely-weekend-houthi-attack) in January 2024, with its CEO saying that they don't expect to resume until [well into 2025](https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/companies/article/maersk-not-expecting-to-resume-suez-route-this-year-g0mmr98nn).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31277,\"question_id\":30920}}`" }, { "id": 39597, "title": "Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?", "short_title": "Major AI Lab Claims to Have Created AGI in 2025?", "url_title": "Major AI Lab Claims to Have Created AGI in 2025?", "slug": "major-ai-lab-claims-to-have-created-agi-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:49.473193Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T05:31:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T07:02:00.225131Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:49.692914Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T07:01:27Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T07:01:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-28T05:31:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38974, "title": "Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:49.473592Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T05:31:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T07:01:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T07:01:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T07:01:27Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T07:01:27Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 20:59:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30923). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nProgress in artificial intelligence has surged in recent years with generative AI tool adoption [surging in the corporate world](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai), and use by a significant portion of the US public for [writing](https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2024/08/08/c472d/1) and for [help in making decisions](https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2024/11/21/b9187/1).\n\nThe rapid AI development has raised questions about the potential of achieving [artificial general intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence) (AGI). Definitions of AGI vary, but in general most definitions align with the interpretation of an AI system operating at or above human level in a broad range of tasks. A number of thinkers have [expressed concern](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence) about risks to humanity posed by the development of AGI and a majority of Americans described their feelings about advances in AI development as \"cautious\" in a [March 2024 survey](https://today.yougov.com/technology/articles/49099-americans-2024-poll-ai-top-feeling-caution). However, some top AI labs have explicitly targeted AGI development as a goal they are pursuing, including [OpenAI](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/), [DeepMind](https://www.theverge.com/23778745/demis-hassabis-google-deepmind-ai-alphafold-risks), and [Meta](https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042354/mark-zuckerberg-meta-agi-reorg-interview).\n\nThere is much uncertainty and [disagreement](https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/9/24316969/mustafa-suleyman-sam-altman-microsoft-openai-agi) about when AGI will be achieved, in part because of the varying definitions. While fuzzy definitions might make it difficult to clearly discern when AGI has arrived (for example, see a [recent claim](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/we-have-already-achieved-agi-openai-employee-claims) from December 2024 that AGI has already been achieved) one metric that may be clearer is when a leading AI lab will first publicly claim to have developed AGI.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30923,\"question_id\":30655}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during calendar year 2025, any one of the listed AI labs below or labs' leadership publicly claims to have created artificial general intelligence (AGI).\n\n* [<u>OpenAI</u>](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/380117/openai-microsoft-sam-altman-nonprofit-for-profit-foundation-artificial-intelligence)\n* [<u>Anthropic</u>](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23794855/anthropic-ai-openai-claude-2)\n* Google (including [<u>DeepMind</u>](https://deepmind.google/))\n* [<u>Microsoft</u>](https://www.theverge.com/24314821/microsoft-ai-ceo-mustafa-suleyman-google-deepmind-openai-inflection-agi-decoder-podcast)\n* [<u>Nvidia</u>](https://venturebeat.com/ai/nvidia-just-dropped-a-bombshell-its-new-ai-model-is-open-massive-and-ready-to-rival-gpt-4/)\n* [<u>xAI</u>](https://x.ai/)\n* [<u>Meta/Facebook</u>](https://ai.meta.com/)\n* [<u>Mistral</u>](https://www.axios.com/2024/02/29/mistral-french-ai-startup-microsoft)\n* [<u>Databricks</u>](https://www.databricks.com/blog/introducing-dbrx-new-state-art-open-llm)\n* [<u>World Labs</u>](https://www.worldlabs.ai/)\n* [<u>Safe Superintelligence</u>](https://ssi.inc/)\n* [<u>Hugging Face</u>](https://huggingface.co/)\n* [<u>Scale AI</u>](https://scale.com/)\n* [<u>Magic.dev</u>](https://magic.dev/)\n* [<u>Amazon</u>](https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/aws/amazon-nova-artificial-intelligence-bedrock-aws)\n* [<u>Apple</u>](https://machinelearning.apple.com/research/introducing-apple-foundation-models)\n* [<u>Netflix</u>](https://netflixtechblog.com/supporting-diverse-ml-systems-at-netflix-2d2e6b6d205d)\n* [<u>IBM</u>](https://www.ibm.com/watson)", "fine_print": "* A lab will be considered to have claimed to have created AGI if the company or an official representative states publicly that the company considers an AI system they have created to be artificial general intelligence. An official representative must be clearly speaking on behalf of the company.\n* A public claim or statement of opinion by lab leadership that they have developed an AI system that they consider to be AGI will also be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**. Lab leadership will be considered to be the chief executive of each organization, or equivalent, or their nearest equivalent successor in the event they depart the company or eliminate the CEO position. If an organization is structured such that its AI lab is part of a larger organization and the AI lab has a clear chief executive, in most cases we will count both the chief executive of the organization and the chief executive of its AI lab. As of December 19, 2024, this is the comprehensive list of qualifying leadership:\n * OpenAI: CEO Sam Altman\n * Anthropic: CEO Dario Amodei\n * Google and DeepMind: CEO Sundar Pichai and CEO Demis Hassabis\n * Microsoft and Microsoft AI: CEO Satya Nadella and CEO Mustafa Suleyman\n * NVIDIA: CEO Jensen Huang\n * xAI: CEO Elon Musk\n * Meta: CEO Mark Zuckerberg\n * Mistral: CEO Arthur Mensch\n * Databricks: CEO Ali Ghodsi\n * World Labs: CEO Fei-Fei Li\n * Safe Superintelligence: CEO Daniel Gross\n * Hugging Face: CEO Clem Delangue\n * Scale AI: CEO Alexandr Wang\n * Magic.dev: CEO Eric Steinberger\n * Amazon: CEO Andy Jassy\n * Apple: CEO Tim Cook\n * Netflix: Co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters\n * IBM: CEO Arvind Krishna \n* A statement will generally qualify if it represents a claim, position, or opinion of the organization or top leadership. For example, a CEO stating their belief that the organization has created AGI would resolve the question as **Yes**, including in informal settings such as podcast appearances, interviews, or X.com. Statements that do not clearly attribute a position to the organization or CEO are not sufficient. For example, if a CEO were to say \"I think that the AI system we have developed would satisfy some definitions of AGI\" that would **not** be sufficient, because it does not clearly state a belief in having developed AGI under a definition they hold, only that they believe it satisfies definitions of AGI that others hold.\n* There are no requirements on the AI system that is referred to as AGI, there need not be public details, access, or announcements about such a system. However, a statement must refer to a system that the lab claims it has developed. A statement such as \"We are currently developing AGI\" or \"We are currently training AGI\" is not sufficient. Claims will generally be taken at face value, for example a claim that AGI has been developed will be sufficient, even if there is evidence to the contrary indicating that the system has not been completed.\n* Metaculus will assess potentially qualifying statements and reporting and make a determination as to whether the criteria were satisfied. In the event of unclear statements, Metaculus may wait for clarifications or additional context or resolve the question as **ambiguous**.", "post_id": 39597, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761634313.25449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761634313.25449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16391990530148556 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 7.0, 4.0, 5.0, 6.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 4.0, 7.0, 2.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 20:59:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30923). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nProgress in artificial intelligence has surged in recent years with generative AI tool adoption [surging in the corporate world](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai), and use by a significant portion of the US public for [writing](https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2024/08/08/c472d/1) and for [help in making decisions](https://today.yougov.com/topics/technology/survey-results/daily/2024/11/21/b9187/1).\n\nThe rapid AI development has raised questions about the potential of achieving [artificial general intelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_general_intelligence) (AGI). Definitions of AGI vary, but in general most definitions align with the interpretation of an AI system operating at or above human level in a broad range of tasks. A number of thinkers have [expressed concern](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_intelligence) about risks to humanity posed by the development of AGI and a majority of Americans described their feelings about advances in AI development as \"cautious\" in a [March 2024 survey](https://today.yougov.com/technology/articles/49099-americans-2024-poll-ai-top-feeling-caution). However, some top AI labs have explicitly targeted AGI development as a goal they are pursuing, including [OpenAI](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/), [DeepMind](https://www.theverge.com/23778745/demis-hassabis-google-deepmind-ai-alphafold-risks), and [Meta](https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042354/mark-zuckerberg-meta-agi-reorg-interview).\n\nThere is much uncertainty and [disagreement](https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/9/24316969/mustafa-suleyman-sam-altman-microsoft-openai-agi) about when AGI will be achieved, in part because of the varying definitions. While fuzzy definitions might make it difficult to clearly discern when AGI has arrived (for example, see a [recent claim](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/we-have-already-achieved-agi-openai-employee-claims) from December 2024 that AGI has already been achieved) one metric that may be clearer is when a leading AI lab will first publicly claim to have developed AGI.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30923,\"question_id\":30655}}`" }, { "id": 39596, "title": "Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?", "short_title": "TurkStream or Blue Stream stop transporting gas in 2025?", "url_title": "TurkStream or Blue Stream stop transporting gas in 2025?", "slug": "turkstream-or-blue-stream-stop-transporting-gas-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:48.926331Z", "published_at": "2025-09-28T20:07:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T21:38:00.279383Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:49.166768Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-28T21:37:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T21:37:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-28T20:07:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38973, "title": "Will either the TurkStream or Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas at any point in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:48.926752Z", "open_time": "2025-09-28T20:07:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-28T21:37:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-28T21:37:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T21:37:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-28T21:37:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-18 19:03:15 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36201). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nBoth pipelines are critical for energy security in Europe and Turkey, but they face challenges related to geopolitical tensions and contract expirations. \n\nConcerning the TurkStream Pipeline, Russian gas supplies to Europe via TurkStream reached [a new](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/russian-gas-deliveries-via-turkstream-set-new-record-118255/) [all-time high](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/12/russian-gas-supplies-to-europe-via-turkstream-hit-new-all-time-high-in-january-a87962) in early 2025. This increase is partly due to Ukraine halting its transit of Russian gas to Europe on January 1, 2025, making TurkStream [the sole route](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TurkStream#Route) for Russian gas deliveries to Europe.\n\nFurther, Russia has accused Ukraine of attempting to attack the TurkStream pipeline on [multiple](https://energynews.pro/en/russia-accuses-ukraine-again-of-attacking-the-turkstream-pipeline/) [occasions](https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-repelled-ukrainian-drone-192450297.html). In March 2025, Russia [claimed](https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/russia-says-thwarted-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-turkstream-pipeline) to have intercepted drones targeting the pipeline, which it views as attempts to disrupt gas deliveries to Europe. \n\nConcerning the Blue Stream pipeline, the major gas contract between Gazprom and Turkey for the pipeline [is set to expire](https://energynews.pro/en/turkey-facing-the-expiration-of-major-gas-contracts-in-2025-2026/) at the end of 2025. The Blue Stream pipeline is crucial for Turkey, providing about 60% of its Russian gas imports. However, occasional maintenance shutdowns and geopolitical tensions may pose challenges for Turkey's energy security.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36201,\"question_id\":35641}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either the TurkStream or the Blue Stream pipeline unexpectedly cease transporting gas for any reason and for any length of time before January 1, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"unexpectedly\" excludes any scheduled maintenance, changes in Turkey's import/export strategy, or similar pauses in gas transportation. Discovering during a scheduled maintenance it is discovered that the pipeline should be closed for a longer period of time for repairs will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 39596, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759092905.20092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1125 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.20600000000000002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759092905.20092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1125 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.20600000000000002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1858571080122425 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 7.0, 3.0, 8.0, 2.0, 2.0, 17.0, 2.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 8.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-03-18 19:03:15 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36201). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nBoth pipelines are critical for energy security in Europe and Turkey, but they face challenges related to geopolitical tensions and contract expirations. \n\nConcerning the TurkStream Pipeline, Russian gas supplies to Europe via TurkStream reached [a new](https://www.turkiyetoday.com/business/russian-gas-deliveries-via-turkstream-set-new-record-118255/) [all-time high](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/12/russian-gas-supplies-to-europe-via-turkstream-hit-new-all-time-high-in-january-a87962) in early 2025. This increase is partly due to Ukraine halting its transit of Russian gas to Europe on January 1, 2025, making TurkStream [the sole route](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TurkStream#Route) for Russian gas deliveries to Europe.\n\nFurther, Russia has accused Ukraine of attempting to attack the TurkStream pipeline on [multiple](https://energynews.pro/en/russia-accuses-ukraine-again-of-attacking-the-turkstream-pipeline/) [occasions](https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-repelled-ukrainian-drone-192450297.html). In March 2025, Russia [claimed](https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/russia-says-thwarted-ukrainian-drone-attack-on-turkstream-pipeline) to have intercepted drones targeting the pipeline, which it views as attempts to disrupt gas deliveries to Europe. \n\nConcerning the Blue Stream pipeline, the major gas contract between Gazprom and Turkey for the pipeline [is set to expire](https://energynews.pro/en/turkey-facing-the-expiration-of-major-gas-contracts-in-2025-2026/) at the end of 2025. The Blue Stream pipeline is crucial for Turkey, providing about 60% of its Russian gas imports. However, occasional maintenance shutdowns and geopolitical tensions may pose challenges for Turkey's energy security.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36201,\"question_id\":35641}}`" }, { "id": 39595, "title": "Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?", "short_title": "All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?", "url_title": "All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?", "slug": "all-star-bannedsuspended-for-betting-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:48.405392Z", "published_at": "2025-10-10T19:29:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-10T21:00:00.423982Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:48.646992Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-10T20:59:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-10T20:59:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-10T19:29:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38972, "title": "Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:48.405792Z", "open_time": "2025-10-10T19:29:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-10T20:59:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-10T20:59:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-10T20:59:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-10T20:59:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nEach of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n\n* In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n* In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n* In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n* In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n\nIn 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended due to sports betting.", "fine_print": "* Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n* The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 39595, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760129495.349209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760129495.349209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27227425165886543 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nEach of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n\n* In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n* In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n* In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n* In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n\nIn 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837}}`" }, { "id": 39593, "title": "Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?", "short_title": "JetBlue Acquisition of Spirit Airlines", "url_title": "JetBlue Acquisition of Spirit Airlines", "slug": "jetblue-acquisition-of-spirit-airlines", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:47.319213Z", "published_at": "2025-09-18T08:06:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T09:37:00.182049Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:47.589193Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T09:36:58Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T09:36:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-18T08:06:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38970, "title": "Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:47.319612Z", "open_time": "2025-09-18T08:06:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-18T09:36:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-18T09:36:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-18T09:36:58Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-18T09:36:58Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-04-01 02:09:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15410). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn July 28, 2022, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines [announced](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158463/000119312522204208/d319514dex991.htm) that their boards of directors had approved a merger between the two companies through which JetBlue would acquire Spirit for $33.50 a share, at an enterprise value of $7.6 billion, and following the merger would eventually operate as a single airline under the JetBlue name and be the 5th largest airline in the United States. The airlines [planned](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/business/jetblue-spirit-merger.html) to complete the transaction in the first half of 2024. On October 19, 2022 Spirit's shareholders [approved](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498710/000149871022000336/a221019stockholderapprov.htm) the deal. \n\nOn March 7, 2023, the US Department of Justice [announced](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-block-jetblue-s-proposed-acquisition-spirit) an antitrust lawsuit to block the acquisition on the grounds that it would harm consumers by eliminating an ultra-low-cost carrier, which would result in, according to the DOJ, \"raising costs for the flying public and harming cost-conscious fliers most acutely.\" JetBlue and Spirit [announced](https://investor.jetblue.com/news/news-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Spirit-Will-Continue-to-Advance-Plan-to-Create-Compelling-National-Low-Fare-Challenger-to-the-Dominant-U.S.-Carriers/default.aspx) that they would \"vigorously defend\" against the DOJ's suit, arguing that the post-merger JetBlue would be a stronger and more competitive airline against the legacy carriers.\n\nAccording to [research](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/done-deal-why-many-large-transactions-fail-to-cross-the-finish-line) by McKinsey, in any given year about 10% of large M&A transactions are cancelled, with larger combinations being more likely to be cancelled. The 2nd most common reason for mergers to be terminated is for regulatory or antitrust concerns. A recent [legal analysis](https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/2022/11/07/doj-sees-mixed-results-in-litigation-focused-antitrust-strategy/?slreturn=20230209091925) finds the DOJ under the Biden Administration to have a more expansive view of antitrust and a willingness to go to trial even when facing difficult cases. This has resulted in a string of defeats but also recent victories such as blocking the acquisition of Simon & Schuster by Penguin Random House.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":15410,\"question_id\":15410}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** based on either of two events happening:\n\n1. A JetBlue press release stating that it has completed its acquisition of Spirit Airlines.\n2. An SEC filing by JetBlue stating that the deal has been completed. \n\nThis question resolves as **No** immediately upon an announcement (either through press release or an SEC filing) by JetBlue stating that the acquisition deal has been terminated. Otherwise if no deal has been completed before January 1, 2026, this resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39593, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758187601.138661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758187601.138661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.08538613674451301 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0, 45.0, 11.0, 3.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-04-01 02:09:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15410). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn July 28, 2022, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines [announced](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158463/000119312522204208/d319514dex991.htm) that their boards of directors had approved a merger between the two companies through which JetBlue would acquire Spirit for $33.50 a share, at an enterprise value of $7.6 billion, and following the merger would eventually operate as a single airline under the JetBlue name and be the 5th largest airline in the United States. The airlines [planned](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/business/jetblue-spirit-merger.html) to complete the transaction in the first half of 2024. On October 19, 2022 Spirit's shareholders [approved](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498710/000149871022000336/a221019stockholderapprov.htm) the deal. \n\nOn March 7, 2023, the US Department of Justice [announced](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-block-jetblue-s-proposed-acquisition-spirit) an antitrust lawsuit to block the acquisition on the grounds that it would harm consumers by eliminating an ultra-low-cost carrier, which would result in, according to the DOJ, \"raising costs for the flying public and harming cost-conscious fliers most acutely.\" JetBlue and Spirit [announced](https://investor.jetblue.com/news/news-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Spirit-Will-Continue-to-Advance-Plan-to-Create-Compelling-National-Low-Fare-Challenger-to-the-Dominant-U.S.-Carriers/default.aspx) that they would \"vigorously defend\" against the DOJ's suit, arguing that the post-merger JetBlue would be a stronger and more competitive airline against the legacy carriers.\n\nAccording to [research](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/done-deal-why-many-large-transactions-fail-to-cross-the-finish-line) by McKinsey, in any given year about 10% of large M&A transactions are cancelled, with larger combinations being more likely to be cancelled. The 2nd most common reason for mergers to be terminated is for regulatory or antitrust concerns. A recent [legal analysis](https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/2022/11/07/doj-sees-mixed-results-in-litigation-focused-antitrust-strategy/?slreturn=20230209091925) finds the DOJ under the Biden Administration to have a more expansive view of antitrust and a willingness to go to trial even when facing difficult cases. This has resulted in a string of defeats but also recent victories such as blocking the acquisition of Simon & Schuster by Penguin Random House.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":15410,\"question_id\":15410}}`" }, { "id": 39591, "title": "Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?", "short_title": "Application to ban AfD in 2025?", "url_title": "Application to ban AfD in 2025?", "slug": "application-to-ban-afd-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:46.251993Z", "published_at": "2025-10-03T11:27:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-03T12:58:00.136797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:46.510999Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T12:57:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T12:57:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-03T11:27:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38968, "title": "Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:46.252423Z", "open_time": "2025-10-03T11:27:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-03T12:57:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-03T12:57:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-03T12:57:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-03T12:57:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31341). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFounded in 2013, the [AfD (Alternative for Germany) party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany) has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. In 2024 it achieved very strong results in three east Germany federal states, coming first in Thuringia and a close second in both Saxony and Brandenburg.\n\nAfD is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified the party as a \"suspected extremist\" party, despite the party's claims of adherence to democratic principles. Various voices [have called](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68029232) for a ban of AfD, a sentiment that has recently gained momentum ([DW](https://www.dw.com/en/will-german-far-right-afd-party-be-banned/a-70531838)):\n\n> Their chance of success is uncertain, but a cross-party group of Bundestag parliamentarians, led by lawmaker Marco Wanderwitz of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) is attempting it anyway: On Thursday, 37 lawmakers announced that they would seek to ban the partially right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD). Together, they represent 5% of parliament — a requirement to take their initiative to the next stage: a parliamentary vote which, if passed, would bring the matter before the Federal Constitutional Court.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31341,\"question_id\":30970}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, an application is filed at the German Federal Constitutional Court to ban the Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party at the federal level, by the Federal Government, the Bundestag, or the Bundesrat", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39591, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759494951.349972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.135 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759494951.349972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.135 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2852195829609153 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31341). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFounded in 2013, the [AfD (Alternative for Germany) party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany) has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. In 2024 it achieved very strong results in three east Germany federal states, coming first in Thuringia and a close second in both Saxony and Brandenburg.\n\nAfD is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified the party as a \"suspected extremist\" party, despite the party's claims of adherence to democratic principles. Various voices [have called](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68029232) for a ban of AfD, a sentiment that has recently gained momentum ([DW](https://www.dw.com/en/will-german-far-right-afd-party-be-banned/a-70531838)):\n\n> Their chance of success is uncertain, but a cross-party group of Bundestag parliamentarians, led by lawmaker Marco Wanderwitz of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) is attempting it anyway: On Thursday, 37 lawmakers announced that they would seek to ban the partially right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD). Together, they represent 5% of parliament — a requirement to take their initiative to the next stage: a parliamentary vote which, if passed, would bring the matter before the Federal Constitutional Court.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31341,\"question_id\":30970}}`" }, { "id": 39590, "title": "Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?", "short_title": "Strait of Hormuz closed 2025?", "url_title": "Strait of Hormuz closed 2025?", "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-closed-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:45.744693Z", "published_at": "2025-10-23T06:08:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-23T07:39:00.267911Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:45.999131Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-23T07:38:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-23T07:38:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-23T06:08:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38967, "title": "Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:45.745099Z", "open_time": "2025-10-23T06:08:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-23T07:38:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-23T07:38:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-23T07:38:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-23T07:38:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-17 23:28:09 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38769). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[IMF Portwatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/), in partnership with the University of Oxford in the UK, offers satellite-based data on vessels to help users assess the impact of extreme events on global trade. Among the chokepoints it [monitors](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/port-monitor) is the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only maritime passage from the Persian Gulf into the ocean. \n\nThe Strait of Hormuz has long been the world's most important chokepoint for oil transit, from oil-rich Gulf states to the world's consumers of oil:\n\n(Source: the [US Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=4430))\n\nRoughly 20% of the world's crude oil passes through the Strait each day. If shipping got cut off, it could have significant impact on the world's oil volumes and put sharp upward pressure on world energy prices. ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504))  \n\nAmid the [Iran–Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war), there were reports in June 2025 that Iran was considering closing the Strait, with a Persian-language media source headlined \"If America goes to war with Iran, closing the Strait of Hormuz is our legitimate right.\" ([Mehr News](https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6504770/%D8%A7%DA%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%86%DA%AF%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D8%AD%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9-%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA), translated)\n\nAccording to [Modern Diplomacy](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/19/assessing-potential-maritime-fallout-of-israel-iran-conflict/):\n\n> This Iranian threat is not merely rhetorical, as the Iranian Navy and IRGC Navy have the capability to impose a blockade in the strait using asymmetric means like swarming with small, fast attack crafts equipped with cruise missiles and rockets, drones, naval mines, and coastal batteries of cruise and ballistic missiles of varying capabilities. In addition, Iranian naval forces also operate several frigates, corvettes, and submarines, which are also tasked to complement blockade efforts. Further compounding maritime risk is the presence of Iran’s two drone carriers—Shahed Bagheri and Shahed Madabi. These converted commercial vessels are capable of launching large drones, missiles, and helicopters, and thus also represent a significant strike capability for Iran at sea. Although the U.S. Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, which, along with allied naval assets, is positioned to respond against such blockade measures, any direct military engagement risks further escalating the conflict into a regional war.\n\nFor more information see also from The War Zone defense news: [Could Iran Carry Out Its Threat To Shut Down The Strait Of Hormuz?](https://www.twz.com/news-features/could-iran-carry-out-its-threat-to-shut-the-strait-of-hormuz)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38769,\"question_id\":38066}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the lowest number of tanker ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on a single day during 2025, is less than 10.\n\nThe resolution source is IMF Port Watch's [Daily Port Calls](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730) for the Strait of Hormuz.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39590, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761204809.277074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16557142857142856 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761204809.277074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16557142857142856 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.12870407477897544 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 4.0, 6.0, 5.0, 10.0, 9.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 18.0, 4.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-17 23:28:09 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38769). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[IMF Portwatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/), in partnership with the University of Oxford in the UK, offers satellite-based data on vessels to help users assess the impact of extreme events on global trade. Among the chokepoints it [monitors](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/port-monitor) is the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only maritime passage from the Persian Gulf into the ocean. \n\nThe Strait of Hormuz has long been the world's most important chokepoint for oil transit, from oil-rich Gulf states to the world's consumers of oil:\n\n(Source: the [US Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=4430))\n\nRoughly 20% of the world's crude oil passes through the Strait each day. If shipping got cut off, it could have significant impact on the world's oil volumes and put sharp upward pressure on world energy prices. ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504))  \n\nAmid the [Iran–Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war), there were reports in June 2025 that Iran was considering closing the Strait, with a Persian-language media source headlined \"If America goes to war with Iran, closing the Strait of Hormuz is our legitimate right.\" ([Mehr News](https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6504770/%D8%A7%DA%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%86%DA%AF%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D8%AD%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9-%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA), translated)\n\nAccording to [Modern Diplomacy](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/19/assessing-potential-maritime-fallout-of-israel-iran-conflict/):\n\n> This Iranian threat is not merely rhetorical, as the Iranian Navy and IRGC Navy have the capability to impose a blockade in the strait using asymmetric means like swarming with small, fast attack crafts equipped with cruise missiles and rockets, drones, naval mines, and coastal batteries of cruise and ballistic missiles of varying capabilities. In addition, Iranian naval forces also operate several frigates, corvettes, and submarines, which are also tasked to complement blockade efforts. Further compounding maritime risk is the presence of Iran’s two drone carriers—Shahed Bagheri and Shahed Madabi. These converted commercial vessels are capable of launching large drones, missiles, and helicopters, and thus also represent a significant strike capability for Iran at sea. Although the U.S. Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, which, along with allied naval assets, is positioned to respond against such blockade measures, any direct military engagement risks further escalating the conflict into a regional war.\n\nFor more information see also from The War Zone defense news: [Could Iran Carry Out Its Threat To Shut Down The Strait Of Hormuz?](https://www.twz.com/news-features/could-iran-carry-out-its-threat-to-shut-the-strait-of-hormuz)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38769,\"question_id\":38066}}`" }, { "id": 39587, "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?", "slug": "will-iran-possess-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:44.175806Z", "published_at": "2025-10-08T22:17:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-08T23:48:00.205629Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:44.422436Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T23:47:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T23:47:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-08T22:17:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38964, "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:44.176215Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T22:17:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-08T23:47:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-08T23:47:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T23:47:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T23:47:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:02:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31123). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIran’s nuclear program has been a focal point of global attention for decades. Although the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), signed in 2015, sought to limit Iran's nuclear activities, the United States' withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 and subsequent re-imposition of sanctions escalated tensions. Since then, Iran has [significantly increased](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20ee6qylwgo) its production of highly enriched uranium, despite it officially denying the existence of a nuclear program. In 2022 a [report](https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Current_Iranian_Breakout_Estimates_June_1_2022_Final.pdf) by the Institute for Science and International Security claimed that Iran's breakout time - the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon - was basically zero, a claim that was reiterated by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken [in July 2024](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/blinken-nuclear-weapon-breakout-time/index.html).\n\nHowever, estimates of breakout time do not account for the technological capability and time required to build a deliverable nuclear warhead ([which has been estimated by some at 1-2 years](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9870/)). In its [2024 Annual Threat Assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf), the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence concluded that while Iran does not appear to be currently pursuing development of a nuclear device, the nuclear activities undertaken since 2020 \"better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so\".\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31123,\"question_id\":30851}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if at least one of the following occurs:\n\n1. The Iranian government states that it has a nuclear weapon, and [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) deem the statement to be credible.\n2. The Iranian government states that it has tested a nuclear weapon at any time, and [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) deem the statement to be credible.\n3. At least one of these three sources, which will be considered per se authoritative for purposes of this question, reports that Iran possesses or has tested a nuclear weapon: the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/nuclear-weapons-who-has-what-glance), the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://www.sipri.org/) and the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/).\n\nA \"nuclear weapon\" is defined as a device designed for military use that uses nuclear reactions to cause an explosion. Mere possession of weapons-grade uranium or development of related technology will not satisfy the resolution criteria.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39587, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759966646.48731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759966646.48731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.12352033139605749 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 7.0, 11.0, 9.0, 2.0, 8.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 23.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:02:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31123). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIran’s nuclear program has been a focal point of global attention for decades. Although the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), signed in 2015, sought to limit Iran's nuclear activities, the United States' withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 and subsequent re-imposition of sanctions escalated tensions. Since then, Iran has [significantly increased](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20ee6qylwgo) its production of highly enriched uranium, despite it officially denying the existence of a nuclear program. In 2022 a [report](https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Current_Iranian_Breakout_Estimates_June_1_2022_Final.pdf) by the Institute for Science and International Security claimed that Iran's breakout time - the amount of time needed to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear weapon - was basically zero, a claim that was reiterated by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken [in July 2024](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/19/politics/blinken-nuclear-weapon-breakout-time/index.html).\n\nHowever, estimates of breakout time do not account for the technological capability and time required to build a deliverable nuclear warhead ([which has been estimated by some at 1-2 years](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9870/)). In its [2024 Annual Threat Assessment](https://www.odni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2024-Unclassified-Report.pdf), the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence concluded that while Iran does not appear to be currently pursuing development of a nuclear device, the nuclear activities undertaken since 2020 \"better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so\".\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31123,\"question_id\":30851}}`" }, { "id": 39586, "title": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?", "short_title": "Forethought Foundation flourishes for 4 years", "url_title": "Forethought Foundation flourishes for 4 years", "slug": "forethought-foundation-flourishes-for-4-years", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:43.651620Z", "published_at": "2025-09-25T15:39:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T17:10:00.192715Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:43.937306Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-25T17:09:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-25T17:09:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-25T15:39:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38963, "title": "Will the Forethought Foundation have more than two full-time equivalent employees in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:43.652036Z", "open_time": "2025-09-25T15:39:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-25T17:09:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-25T17:09:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-25T17:09:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-25T17:09:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-07-01 22:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7101). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research](https://www.forethought.org/about-us) is a recently launched think tank led by William MacAskill, which \"aims to promote academic work that addresses the question of how to use our scarce resources to improve the world by as much as possible\". It has recently been [hiring](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ndEZwLXN8ynLdRkxR/the-forethought-foundation-is-hiring)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7101,\"question_id\":7101}}`", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a full-time equivalent is defined as working 35 hours per week, without including volunteers. Question will be resolved negatively if the project has clearly been abandoned, otherwise, reports by the organization together with best estimates by Metaculus moderators will be used", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39586, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758818229.382138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758818229.382138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.622448014648333 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2021-07-01 22:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7101). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research](https://www.forethought.org/about-us) is a recently launched think tank led by William MacAskill, which \"aims to promote academic work that addresses the question of how to use our scarce resources to improve the world by as much as possible\". It has recently been [hiring](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ndEZwLXN8ynLdRkxR/the-forethought-foundation-is-hiring)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":7101,\"question_id\":7101}}`" }, { "id": 39585, "title": "Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?", "short_title": "ChatGPT back in China by 2026", "url_title": "ChatGPT back in China by 2026", "slug": "chatgpt-back-in-china-by-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:43.181109Z", "published_at": "2025-10-24T15:53:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T17:24:00.365184Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:43.420944Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-24T17:23:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-24T17:23:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-24T15:53:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38962, "title": "Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:43.181504Z", "open_time": "2025-10-24T15:53:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-24T17:23:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-24T17:23:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-24T17:23:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-24T17:23:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-01-30 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21114). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n> As of April 2023, ChatGPT is blocked by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. In addition, ChatGPT geofences itself to avoid doing business in China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT#Basic_service)\n\nIn a [January 2024 interview](https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/sam-altman-davos-ai-future-interview), Sam Altman talked about customizing ChatGPT to different countries:\n\n> Altman believes future AI products will need to allow \"quite a lot of individual customization\" and \"that's going to make a lot of people uncomfortable,\" because AI will give different answers for different users, based on their values preferences and possibly on what country they reside in.\n\n> \"If the country said, you know, all gay people should be killed on sight, then no ... that is well out of bounds,\" Altman tells Axios. \"But there are probably other things that I don't personally agree with, but a different culture might. ... We have to be somewhat uncomfortable as a tool builder with some of the uses of our tools.\"\n\n> Asked if future versions of OpenAI products might answer a question differently in different countries based on that country's values, Altman said, \"It'll be different for users with different values. The countries issue I think, is somewhat less important.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":21114,\"question_id\":21114}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes based on credible reports that ChatGPT is available to users in China.", "fine_print": "* This will also resolve positively if only the API version is available. \n* If ChatGPT is not the model from OpenAI offered in China, a language-based AI product offered by OpenAI that is deemed a successor or very similar in its function to the ChatGPT product from late 2023 is also sufficient for the question to resolve Yes.\n* If it becomes available between now and the resolution date and then gets banned again, or taken from the market by OpenAI, this question would also resolve positively.", "post_id": 39585, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761326055.182272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08499999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761326055.182272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08499999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.915, 0.08499999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.10920935573279028 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 4.0, 20.0, 9.0, 3.0, 8.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-01-30 23:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21114). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n> As of April 2023, ChatGPT is blocked by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. In addition, ChatGPT geofences itself to avoid doing business in China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT#Basic_service)\n\nIn a [January 2024 interview](https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/sam-altman-davos-ai-future-interview), Sam Altman talked about customizing ChatGPT to different countries:\n\n> Altman believes future AI products will need to allow \"quite a lot of individual customization\" and \"that's going to make a lot of people uncomfortable,\" because AI will give different answers for different users, based on their values preferences and possibly on what country they reside in.\n\n> \"If the country said, you know, all gay people should be killed on sight, then no ... that is well out of bounds,\" Altman tells Axios. \"But there are probably other things that I don't personally agree with, but a different culture might. ... We have to be somewhat uncomfortable as a tool builder with some of the uses of our tools.\"\n\n> Asked if future versions of OpenAI products might answer a question differently in different countries based on that country's values, Altman said, \"It'll be different for users with different values. The countries issue I think, is somewhat less important.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":21114,\"question_id\":21114}}`" }, { "id": 39584, "title": "Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?", "short_title": "Will a new war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?", "url_title": "Will a new war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?", "slug": "will-a-new-war-kill-at-least-5000-people-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:42.532024Z", "published_at": "2025-10-07T08:13:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-07T09:44:00.200483Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:42.798663Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-07T09:43:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-07T09:43:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-07T08:13:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38961, "title": "Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:42.532427Z", "open_time": "2025-10-07T08:13:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-07T09:43:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-07T09:43:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-07T09:43:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-07T09:43:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:02:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31273). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe early 2020s saw an increase in armed conflicts around the world. The [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://ucdp.uu.se/) reports (visualized by OWID [here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-type)) that each of 2021, 2022, and 2023 surpassed every year since 1989 in armed conflict deaths, with the exception of the [1994 Rwandan genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31273,\"question_id\":30917}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), either a new armed conflict or a substantial escalation of a previous conflict has resulted in at least 5,000 deaths within the calendar year 2025.", "fine_print": "* For a conflict to count it must have had fewer than 1,000 deaths in each of the calendar years 2023 and 2024.\n* At least 5,000 deaths have to happen within 2025. If credible sources disagree about the number of deaths, Metaculus will use its best estimate based on the available information and might resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n* Civil wars or conflicts between state armed forces and other armed groups (e.g., the [Mexican drug war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_drug_war)) will count. Terrorist attacks will not - at least one party in the conflict must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\n* A conflict that has been overtly joined by at least one new state (including state military or militants from a new state) and takes place at a primarily different frontline will count as a separate conflict, even if a new state explicitly takes a side in an existing conflict. This includes states that have joined a conflict prior to 2025, as well as any that join during 2025. If the frontlines are primarily the same, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the new state suffers at least 5,000 deaths in the conflict, when it had not suffered 1,000 deaths in the conflict previously. \"Overtly joined\" means that combatants from the country are clearly identifiable and, if they are members of the country's military, are acknowledged by that country to be involved in the conflict.\n* In cases where the reporting is ambiguous or the situation is complex, Metaculus may make a determination, and might resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n* In cases of ambiguity in the reporting of deaths, Metaculus might wait until January 31, 2026 to resolve this question. ", "post_id": 39584, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759829042.804908, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759829042.804908, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.26662867833029485 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 13.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:02:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31273). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe early 2020s saw an increase in armed conflicts around the world. The [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://ucdp.uu.se/) reports (visualized by OWID [here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-type)) that each of 2021, 2022, and 2023 surpassed every year since 1989 in armed conflict deaths, with the exception of the [1994 Rwandan genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31273,\"question_id\":30917}}`" }, { "id": 39582, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?", "short_title": "US unemployment rate in Nov 2025 below Nov 2024?", "url_title": "US unemployment rate in Nov 2025 below Nov 2024?", "slug": "us-unemployment-rate-in-nov-2025-below-nov-2024", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:41.317215Z", "published_at": "2025-09-10T05:41:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T07:12:00.235566Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:41.710122Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-10T07:11:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-10T07:11:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-10T05:41:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38959, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate in November 2025 be below the rate in November 2024?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:41.317624Z", "open_time": "2025-09-10T05:41:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-10T07:11:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-10T07:11:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-10T07:11:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-10T07:11:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31253). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1Cxe4&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" />\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31253,\"question_id\":30905}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for November 2025 is lower than 4.2%. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2025 by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).", "fine_print": "Subsequent revisions to the first estimate will not affect the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 39582, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757487315.439855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3678571428571429 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757487315.439855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3678571428571429 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.33109024055673986 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 23.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31253). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1Cxe4&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" />\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31253,\"question_id\":30905}}`" }, { "id": 39581, "title": "Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?", "short_title": "Will ORS/zinc use rise in Sierra Leone study?", "url_title": "Will ORS/zinc use rise in Sierra Leone study?", "slug": "will-orszinc-use-rise-in-sierra-leone-study", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:40.813356Z", "published_at": "2025-09-23T01:05:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T02:36:00.451832Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:41.042790Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-23T02:35:11Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-23T02:35:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-23T01:05:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38958, "title": "Will the study of oral rehydration solution and zinc distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage by the recipients?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:40.813760Z", "open_time": "2025-09-23T01:05:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-23T02:35:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-23T02:35:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-23T02:35:11Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-23T02:35:11Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-10-23 16:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28373). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024):\n\n>In May 2024, GiveWell made a $676,857 grant to Wageningen University to include additional components to a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of door-to-door health service delivery in remote communities in Sierra Leone. Non-GiveWell funding was already covering one round of service delivery and surveys, including the provision of routine childhood and HPV vaccines, vitamin A supplements, and deworming pills. This grant will add chlorine, for disinfecting drinking water, and oral rehydration solution (ORS) and zinc, for treating dehydration due to diarrhea, to the bundle of health services that will be delivered, and will support a second round of service delivery and surveys 3 months after the initial round.\n\nGiveWell estimates that reduction in diarrhea deaths via chlorine and ORS/zinc could raise the cost-effectiveness estimate of health commodities distribution programs like this one, if usage is high.\n\nThe study's design is as follows:\n\n>The study will be a cluster-randomized RCT in which the treatment communities receive household-to-household visits from health teams offering routine childhood and HPV vaccines to those who have not received all of the vaccines in the vaccination schedule. Households with children under the age of 5 will also be offered VAS, deworming pills, chlorine to treat drinking water, and ORS/zinc to treat future diarrhea episodes. Control communities will not receive any interventions. The health teams will also provide information on when young children are due for subsequent vaccines. The health teams will return after three months and provide the same bundle of services.\n\nResults of the study, if a statistically significant increase can be shown, will have implications for GiveWell’s future funding of similar interventions:\n>GiveWell is considering supporting programs that deliver vaccines to communities far from public health facilities, as one strategy to increase vaccination coverage in areas with high vaccine-preventable disease burdens. Chlorine and ORS/zinc, if usage rates are reasonably high, have the potential to increase the cost-effectiveness of such programs. (More [here](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#We_expect_this_study_to_have_a_decent_chance_of_affecting_our_future_grant_decisions).)\n\nIn the grant rationale, GiveWell explains some potential reasons the study might fail:\n\n- Recipients might be overwhelmed by the quantity of health services they’re receiving (childhood vaccines, HPV vaccines, VAS, deworming) and not process instructions on ORS/zinc usage. \n- Recipients might not use either ORS/zinc or chlorine if they view these commodities as substitutes for each other. \n- People in areas with very little contact with health systems might react to health information or commodities differently than people in other areas.\n\nIn its own internal forecasting, GiveWell predicts a 70% chance that the study measures a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage in the treatment group over the two rounds of distribution.\n\nFor more context on the commodity being distributed, see also the GiveWell report: [Oral Rehydration Solution (ORS) and Zinc\n](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/oral-rehydration-solution-zinc)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":28373,\"question_id\":28373}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the GiveWell-funded [study](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024) by Wageningen University and its affiliated research team finds a statistically significant increase in oral rehydration solution (ORS) and zinc usage by the treatment group over two rounds of distribution of ORS/zinc to certain household clusters in Sierra Leone, compared with the control group. \n\nIf no statistically significant increase is found, whether because none occurred, there is insufficient data, or the study is not completed before January 1, 2026, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "According to the Yale Research Initiative on Innovation and Scale, the estimated minimal detectable effect for ORS/zinc usage is about 8 percentage points, ([pdf source](https://files.givewell.org/files/DWDA%202009/YRISE/Givewell_Research_Proposal_on_YRISE_vaccines.pdf), p. 11) and the estimated control group usage rate is 43% (Ibid., p. 19).\n\nIn assessing the statistical significance in the comparison between the control group and treatment group, please note that the p-value must be <0.05.\n\nIn case of reporting delays, resolution will wait up to two years after the end of the question period, until December 31, 2027, after which the question will be **annulled** if Metaculus determines there is insufficient evidence to support a **Yes** or **No** resolution.", "post_id": 39581, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758594818.338561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758594818.338561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6494500789102384 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 4.0, 4.0, 3.0, 28.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 10.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-10-23 16:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28373). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAccording to [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024):\n\n>In May 2024, GiveWell made a $676,857 grant to Wageningen University to include additional components to a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of door-to-door health service delivery in remote communities in Sierra Leone. Non-GiveWell funding was already covering one round of service delivery and surveys, including the provision of routine childhood and HPV vaccines, vitamin A supplements, and deworming pills. This grant will add chlorine, for disinfecting drinking water, and oral rehydration solution (ORS) and zinc, for treating dehydration due to diarrhea, to the bundle of health services that will be delivered, and will support a second round of service delivery and surveys 3 months after the initial round.\n\nGiveWell estimates that reduction in diarrhea deaths via chlorine and ORS/zinc could raise the cost-effectiveness estimate of health commodities distribution programs like this one, if usage is high.\n\nThe study's design is as follows:\n\n>The study will be a cluster-randomized RCT in which the treatment communities receive household-to-household visits from health teams offering routine childhood and HPV vaccines to those who have not received all of the vaccines in the vaccination schedule. Households with children under the age of 5 will also be offered VAS, deworming pills, chlorine to treat drinking water, and ORS/zinc to treat future diarrhea episodes. Control communities will not receive any interventions. The health teams will also provide information on when young children are due for subsequent vaccines. The health teams will return after three months and provide the same bundle of services.\n\nResults of the study, if a statistically significant increase can be shown, will have implications for GiveWell’s future funding of similar interventions:\n>GiveWell is considering supporting programs that deliver vaccines to communities far from public health facilities, as one strategy to increase vaccination coverage in areas with high vaccine-preventable disease burdens. Chlorine and ORS/zinc, if usage rates are reasonably high, have the potential to increase the cost-effectiveness of such programs. (More [here](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#We_expect_this_study_to_have_a_decent_chance_of_affecting_our_future_grant_decisions).)\n\nIn the grant rationale, GiveWell explains some potential reasons the study might fail:\n\n- Recipients might be overwhelmed by the quantity of health services they’re receiving (childhood vaccines, HPV vaccines, VAS, deworming) and not process instructions on ORS/zinc usage. \n- Recipients might not use either ORS/zinc or chlorine if they view these commodities as substitutes for each other. \n- People in areas with very little contact with health systems might react to health information or commodities differently than people in other areas.\n\nIn its own internal forecasting, GiveWell predicts a 70% chance that the study measures a statistically significant increase in ORS/zinc usage in the treatment group over the two rounds of distribution.\n\nFor more context on the commodity being distributed, see also the GiveWell report: [Oral Rehydration Solution (ORS) and Zinc\n](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/oral-rehydration-solution-zinc)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":28373,\"question_id\":28373}}`" }, { "id": 39580, "title": "Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?", "short_title": "Increase in global average wealth per adult?", "url_title": "Increase in global average wealth per adult?", "slug": "increase-in-global-average-wealth-per-adult", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:40.252944Z", "published_at": "2025-09-11T19:01:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T20:32:00.513404Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:40.517860Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-11T20:31:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-11T20:31:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-11T19:01:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38957, "title": "Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:40.253360Z", "open_time": "2025-09-11T19:01:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-11T20:31:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-11T20:31:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-11T20:31:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-11T20:31:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35578). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [ <u>World Inequality Database</u> ](https://wid.world/) (WID) tracks inequality and wealth indicators globally. The \"Average national wealth at market value per adult\" measures average wealth per adult in terms of market value, providing insights into global economic changes and wealth distribution. This metric reflects changes in economic conditions, but also dynamics of capital redistribution/concentration.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35578,\"question_id\":35028}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the [ <u>World Inequality Database</u> ](https://wid.world/) (WID) estimates that the \"[ <u>Median national wealth at market value per adult</u> ](https://wid.world/world/#anweal_p0p100_z/WO/last/eu/k/p/yearly/a/false/48929.56/125000/curve/false/country)\" for 2024 is higher than that in 2023. It will be resolved as **No** otherwise or if the value is equal to or lower.", "fine_print": "• If WID does not publish 2024 data by the resolution date, the question will be **void**.\n\n • The comparison will be made with the most recent figure available corresponding to 2023.", "post_id": 39580, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757622193.669779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757622193.669779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.275, 0.725 ], "means": [ 0.6980057737199612 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 14.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35578). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [ <u>World Inequality Database</u> ](https://wid.world/) (WID) tracks inequality and wealth indicators globally. The \"Average national wealth at market value per adult\" measures average wealth per adult in terms of market value, providing insights into global economic changes and wealth distribution. This metric reflects changes in economic conditions, but also dynamics of capital redistribution/concentration.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35578,\"question_id\":35028}}`" }, { "id": 39578, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?", "short_title": "Magnificent Seven bubble pops?", "url_title": "Magnificent Seven bubble pops?", "slug": "magnificent-seven-bubble-pops", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:39.060486Z", "published_at": "2025-10-14T16:18:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-14T17:49:00.353188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:39.430856Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T17:48:38Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T17:48:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-14T16:18:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38955, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:39.060890Z", "open_time": "2025-10-14T16:18:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T17:48:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T17:48:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-14T17:48:38Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-14T17:48:38Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-03-06 15:06:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21531). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nUS mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":21531,\"question_id\":21531}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if at any point between now and 1 Jan 2026 shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high. \n\nThe question shall be resolved by using the daily closing share prices available from Yahoo Finance under the 'historical data' tab or, at the discretion of Metaculus admins, any other credible source of share price data.\n\nWhatever data source is used should be adjusted for share splits, so that this question does *not* resolve positive just because a few of the Magnificent Seven decide to do a stock split (ie offer N new shares for each old share).", "fine_print": "In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example: \nIf Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.\n\nPositive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if *either* of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high. \n\nSo if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positive.", "post_id": 39578, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760463621.43506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15999999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760463621.43506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15999999999999998 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8400000000000001, 0.15999999999999998 ], "means": [ 0.18714001560105592 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 11.0, 4.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-03-06 15:06:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21531). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nUS mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":21531,\"question_id\":21531}}`" }, { "id": 39577, "title": "Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?", "short_title": "GTA VI coming to Europe in 2025?", "url_title": "GTA VI coming to Europe in 2025?", "slug": "gta-vi-coming-to-europe-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:38.483856Z", "published_at": "2025-09-11T22:09:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T23:40:00.306682Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:38.745282Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-11T23:39:13Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-11T23:39:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-11T22:09:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38954, "title": "Will Grand Theft Auto VI be released in Europe in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:38.484260Z", "open_time": "2025-09-11T22:09:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-11T23:39:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-11T23:39:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-11T23:39:13Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-11T23:39:13Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35567). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n\"Grand Theft Auto VI\" is one of the most anticipated video games of recent years, with widespread interest and <u>speculation regarding its release date</u> (https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2025/02/the-gta-6-2025-release-window-may-have-just-gotten-smaller) Rockstar Games has historically achieved global releases for the GTA series, though release dates and regional availability are subject to change. Europe represents a significant market for the video game.\n\n As of February 2025, Rockstar Games has officially announced that \"Grand Theft Auto VI\" is scheduled for release in the third or fourth quarter of 2025, [ <u>specifically in the fall season</u> ](https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2025/02/the-gta-6-2025-release-window-may-have-just-gotten-smaller). The game will be available on the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S platforms. While the announcement confirms a 2025 release, it does not specify regional availability. Additionally, delays are a possibility.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35567,\"question_id\":35018}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved to **Yes** if, within 2025, \"Grand Theft Auto VI\" is available for sale in Europe through standard, authorized distribution channels. If the game is not released in Europe in 2025, the question will be resolved to **No**.", "fine_print": "* Unofficial reservations or leaks do not qualify unless corroborated by an authorized announcement.", "post_id": 39577, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757633791.539481, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.030000000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757633791.539481, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.030000000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.030000000000000002 ], "means": [ 0.16914638087946315 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0, 29.0, 14.0, 3.0, 1.0, 21.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35567). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n\"Grand Theft Auto VI\" is one of the most anticipated video games of recent years, with widespread interest and <u>speculation regarding its release date</u> (https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2025/02/the-gta-6-2025-release-window-may-have-just-gotten-smaller) Rockstar Games has historically achieved global releases for the GTA series, though release dates and regional availability are subject to change. Europe represents a significant market for the video game.\n\n As of February 2025, Rockstar Games has officially announced that \"Grand Theft Auto VI\" is scheduled for release in the third or fourth quarter of 2025, [ <u>specifically in the fall season</u> ](https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2025/02/the-gta-6-2025-release-window-may-have-just-gotten-smaller). The game will be available on the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S platforms. While the announcement confirms a 2025 release, it does not specify regional availability. Additionally, delays are a possibility.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35567,\"question_id\":35018}}`" }, { "id": 39576, "title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?", "short_title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between in Jun-Dec 2025?", "url_title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between in Jun-Dec 2025?", "slug": "will-any-new-country-attack-israel-or-iran-between-in-jun-dec-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.863947Z", "published_at": "2025-10-02T18:11:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-02T19:42:00.291383Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:38.076138Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-02T18:11:32Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38953, "title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.864353Z", "open_time": "2025-10-02T18:11:32Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-02 01:35:05 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38712). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries. On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38712,\"question_id\":37997}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 30, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any country besides Israel, Iran, Palestine, or the US attacks Israel or Iran.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an attack is defined as either:\n\n* A kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear attack targeting officials, infrastructure, or the military, occurring within the borders of Israel or Iran. (See Fine Print for detailed explanation of Israel's borders.)\n* At least 20 official military personnel entering the internationally recognised land borders of Israel or Iran, without the Israel or Iran's overt permission.", "fine_print": "* Attacks that are part of covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n* Attacks targeting officials of Israel or Iran will count even if they are conducted outside of each countries internationally recognised borders.\n* For the purposes of this question, Israel's borders are defined based on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will count.\n* The attacking country has to either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its official armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) unambiguously attribute it to its armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n* For the purposes of this question, a country is a UN member or non-member observer state.", "post_id": 39576, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759433618.998891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759433618.998891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1869050769998285 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 6.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 27.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-02 01:35:05 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38712). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries. On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38712,\"question_id\":37997}}`" }, { "id": 39575, "title": "Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?", "short_title": "US export ctrls for generative AI before 2026", "url_title": "US export ctrls for generative AI before 2026", "slug": "us-export-ctrls-for-generative-ai-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.341066Z", "published_at": "2025-10-17T16:08:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T17:39:00.230470Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.631638Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-17T16:08:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38952, "title": "Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.341478Z", "open_time": "2025-10-17T16:08:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17102). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.\n\nAs the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17102,\"question_id\":17102}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31 2025, the US imposes export controls on some generative AI software, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The export controls need not be specifically to China - anything under the standard export regime of the US would qualify.\n\nThe export controls must be specifically related to AI that can generate content. It is not sufficient if software produced by Microsoft or OpenAI cannot be exported to certain countries for other reasons - such as export bans on all software, or on all commercial products sold to certain countries.\n\nThese need to be actual export controls, as per the 2022 controls on semiconductors. Taxes or trade deals are not considered here.", "post_id": 39575, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760721831.817947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760721831.817947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.49914724641300734 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17102). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.\n\nAs the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17102,\"question_id\":17102}}`" }, { "id": 39574, "title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?", "short_title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule in 2025?", "slug": "will-brazil-ban-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:36.868279Z", "published_at": "2025-09-27T13:45:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-27T15:16:00.241511Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.101487Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-27T13:45:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38951, "title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:36.868665Z", "open_time": "2025-09-27T13:45:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-11-22 02:45:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29956). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThere is currently [a lot of talk](https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2024/11/11/why-is-everyone-talking-about-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-brazil ) about banning the 6x1 work schedule (6 working days, 1 off) for registered workers in Brazil. Proponents claim that working 6 days a week is too exhausting and doesn't leave enough time for workers to rest, socialize and run errands. An ambitious constitutional ammendment has recently [been proposed](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2024/11/proposal-to-reduce-weekly-work-hours-in-brazil-gains-momentum-in-congress.shtml) by two Brazilian congress members that would mandate a 4x3 schedule for all workers and has garnered some support.\n\nPortuguese language sources:\n- https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2024/11/12/fim-da-escala-6x1-o-que-muda-se-pec-for-aprovada-no-congresso.htm\n- https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/redacao/2024/11/12/o-que-e-a-escala-6x1-entenda-o-que-propoe-a-pec-para-reducao-da-jornada.htm\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29956,\"question_id\":29790}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the 6x1 work schedule is officialy banned for most CLT occupations in Brazil before 1 January 2026, and will resolve as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "This question concerns only CLT occupations in Brazil (registered workers), and will resolve to **Yes** even if employers find legal workarounds to keep hiring people in 6x1 work schedules after a ban.\n\nIn Brazil, a CLT worker is someone employed under the rules of the Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho (CLT), or the Consolidation of Labor Laws. This legislation governs employment relations and protects workers' rights in Brazil. Being a CLT worker means you’re formally employed and entitled to a range of rights and protections set out in Brazilian labor laws.\n\n\"Most CLT occupations\" here means that the law lists no more than 5 exceptions to the general rule, affecting in total no more than 1% of the workforce", "post_id": 39574, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758984211.660023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.058 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758984211.660023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.058 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16817486234154097 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 3.0, 4.0, 11.0, 1.0, 5.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-11-22 02:45:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29956). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThere is currently [a lot of talk](https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2024/11/11/why-is-everyone-talking-about-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-brazil ) about banning the 6x1 work schedule (6 working days, 1 off) for registered workers in Brazil. Proponents claim that working 6 days a week is too exhausting and doesn't leave enough time for workers to rest, socialize and run errands. An ambitious constitutional ammendment has recently [been proposed](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2024/11/proposal-to-reduce-weekly-work-hours-in-brazil-gains-momentum-in-congress.shtml) by two Brazilian congress members that would mandate a 4x3 schedule for all workers and has garnered some support.\n\nPortuguese language sources:\n- https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2024/11/12/fim-da-escala-6x1-o-que-muda-se-pec-for-aprovada-no-congresso.htm\n- https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/redacao/2024/11/12/o-que-e-a-escala-6x1-entenda-o-que-propoe-a-pec-para-reducao-da-jornada.htm\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29956,\"question_id\":29790}}`" }, { "id": 39572, "title": "Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US pass an AI regulation federal bill before 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US pass an AI regulation federal bill before 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-pass-an-ai-regulation-federal-bill-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:35.801519Z", "published_at": "2025-10-15T02:22:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T03:53:00.152563Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:36.131213Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-15T02:22:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:36:45.105493Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38949, "title": "Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:35.801931Z", "open_time": "2025-10-15T02:22:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-10-30 13:03:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29076). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US adopt federal AI regulations?\n\nIn the last few years, the speed of artificial intelligence (AI) development has increased exponentially and continues to become ever more sophisticated. [Many see AI as a solution to the current productivity crisis](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-will-ai-affect-productivity/), and it is in the midst of an ‘[AI Boom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_boom)’, with global spending on AI expected to reach [$632 billion by 2028](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52530724), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC). \n\nThis has led to new and rapid advancements in the field. OpenAI, for example, the AI research organization behind ChatGPT, has launched its [‘Strawberry’ AI model](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-launches-new-series-ai-models-solve-hard-problems-2024-09-12/), capable of ‘reasoning’ through tasks and problems rather than generating a quick response. Likewise, the technology giant NVIDIA — a dominant supplier of AI hardware and software — has released its own open-source AI model, [NVLM 1.0](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/nvidia-just-debuted-its-new-open-source-advanced-ai-model-with-state-of-the-art-capabilities-to-take-on-openais-magical-gpt-4o).\n\nWhile AI is therefore seen as an essential tool moving forward, there are also great concerns with the technology. There has been a marked increase in the use of AI to spread disinformation, with [fake images](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/business/media/ai-generated-images.html), [videos](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/technology/artificial-intelligence-training-deepfake.html), and even [fake voice recordings](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68074257), designed to mimic politicians or celebrities, being widely propagated online, especially on [platforms such as X (formerly Twitter)](https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-spread-of-synthetic-media-on-x/) AI is also being utilized for criminal purposes. Gangs in Asia, for instance, are [“[l]everaging technological advances … to produc[e] larger scale and harder to detect fraud, money laundering, underground banking[,] and online scams”](https://www.unodc.org/roseap/en/2024/10/cyberfraud-industry-expands-southeast-asia/story.html), according to Masood Karimipour, a regional representative of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). \n\nAs a result, there has been a push to regulate AI at the government level. The European Union (EU), for example, implemented the [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) which came into force on 1 August 2024, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Likewise, there has been a similar push to regulate AI at a federal level in the United States. In 2022, the White House released its ‘[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/ai-bill-of-rights/)’ and, in 2023, President Joe Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. Despite this, the [United States lacks any overarching federal regulation](https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2024/04/existing-and-proposed-federal-ai-regulation-in-the-united-states), meaning AI in the US is currently governed by a mixture of federal and state law, the industry itself, and the judiciary.\n\nGiven that the pace of AI development continues to grow, the question arises as to whether the US government will adopt federal regulations for AI, or whether the [$146 billion industry](https://www.precedenceresearch.com/us-artificial-intelligence-market) will continue under its current patchwork regulatory regime.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29076,\"question_id\":28996}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the following conditions are met:\n\n - A bill primarily focused on AI regulation - containing specific provisions for the governance, oversight, or regulation of artificial intelligence technologies - has been introduced and passed by both the House of Representatives and the Senate.\n - The bill is signed into law by the President of the United States or becomes law by congressional override of a presidential veto, before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "- The bill must focus on general AI regulation. Broader federal bills that include AI regulations as a secondary focus, or bills specific to a particular domain of AI (e.g., AI in healthcare), do not count.\n- The date the bill takes effect does not matter, as long as it is enacted by January 1, 2026.\n- Only federal bills are considered; other measures, such as Executive Orders, will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 39572, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760500204.114315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760500204.114315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.15914523638198005 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 5.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 19.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-10-30 13:03:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29076). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US adopt federal AI regulations?\n\nIn the last few years, the speed of artificial intelligence (AI) development has increased exponentially and continues to become ever more sophisticated. [Many see AI as a solution to the current productivity crisis](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-will-ai-affect-productivity/), and it is in the midst of an ‘[AI Boom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_boom)’, with global spending on AI expected to reach [$632 billion by 2028](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52530724), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC). \n\nThis has led to new and rapid advancements in the field. OpenAI, for example, the AI research organization behind ChatGPT, has launched its [‘Strawberry’ AI model](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-launches-new-series-ai-models-solve-hard-problems-2024-09-12/), capable of ‘reasoning’ through tasks and problems rather than generating a quick response. Likewise, the technology giant NVIDIA — a dominant supplier of AI hardware and software — has released its own open-source AI model, [NVLM 1.0](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/nvidia-just-debuted-its-new-open-source-advanced-ai-model-with-state-of-the-art-capabilities-to-take-on-openais-magical-gpt-4o).\n\nWhile AI is therefore seen as an essential tool moving forward, there are also great concerns with the technology. There has been a marked increase in the use of AI to spread disinformation, with [fake images](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/business/media/ai-generated-images.html), [videos](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/technology/artificial-intelligence-training-deepfake.html), and even [fake voice recordings](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68074257), designed to mimic politicians or celebrities, being widely propagated online, especially on [platforms such as X (formerly Twitter)](https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-spread-of-synthetic-media-on-x/) AI is also being utilized for criminal purposes. Gangs in Asia, for instance, are [“[l]everaging technological advances … to produc[e] larger scale and harder to detect fraud, money laundering, underground banking[,] and online scams”](https://www.unodc.org/roseap/en/2024/10/cyberfraud-industry-expands-southeast-asia/story.html), according to Masood Karimipour, a regional representative of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). \n\nAs a result, there has been a push to regulate AI at the government level. The European Union (EU), for example, implemented the [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) which came into force on 1 August 2024, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Likewise, there has been a similar push to regulate AI at a federal level in the United States. In 2022, the White House released its ‘[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/ai-bill-of-rights/)’ and, in 2023, President Joe Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. Despite this, the [United States lacks any overarching federal regulation](https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2024/04/existing-and-proposed-federal-ai-regulation-in-the-united-states), meaning AI in the US is currently governed by a mixture of federal and state law, the industry itself, and the judiciary.\n\nGiven that the pace of AI development continues to grow, the question arises as to whether the US government will adopt federal regulations for AI, or whether the [$146 billion industry](https://www.precedenceresearch.com/us-artificial-intelligence-market) will continue under its current patchwork regulatory regime.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29076,\"question_id\":28996}}`" } ] }
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