Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=320
{ "count": 5887, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=340", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=300", "results": [ { "id": 38850, "title": "Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?", "short_title": "Thames Water SAR pre Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Thames Water SAR pre Sep 2025?", "slug": "thames-water-sar-pre-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-10T08:20:39.465881Z", "published_at": "2025-07-11T22:42:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.702300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-11T22:43:12.535600Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38163, "title": "Will Thames Water be placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-10T08:20:39.466319Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-21T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T13:47:20.157110Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1974, the [Thames Water Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water_Authority) was established under the Water Act 1973 to consolidate water management in the Thames catchment area. In 1989, as part of the privatisation of England and Wales’s water industry, the Thames Water Authority was dissolved. Its water and sewage operations were transferred to the newly formed private company, [Thames Water](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water). \n\nAfter privatisation in 1989, Thames Water began with zero debt, but this changed dramatically as new private owners took over and used debt to fund both infrastructure investment and substantial dividend payments. Ownership shifted between major international investors, including the German utility [RWE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RWE) and, most notably, the Australian investment bank [Macquarie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group). During Macquarie’s tenure (2006–2017), Thames Water’s debt soared from around £3.4 billion to over £10.8 billion.\n\nAfter Macquarie exited in 2017, ownership passed to a consortium including Borealis Infrastructure (OMERS) and Wren House (Kuwait Investment Authority). Despite the change, Thames Water’s debt continued to grow. By 2024–2025, its parent company, Kemble Water, had nearly £15 billion in debt and defaulted on repayments, while Thames Water itself was burdened with over £18 billion in total liabilities.\n\nIn June 2025, a [major private rescue deal collapsed](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/kkr-drops-out-thames-water-equity-raise-process-2025-06-03/), prompting the UK government to [step up preparations](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq17lwe99o) for placing Thames Water into a [Special Administration Regime](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1991/56/part/II/chapter/II/crossheading/special-administration-orders/enacted) (SAR), a process designed to ensure continuity of critical services. This process involves appointing a special administrator to take control of the company and attempt to restructure or sell the business, however these steps often fail and the SAR becomes a precursor to full nationalisation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Thames Water is placed into a Special Administration Regime before September 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38850, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756674401.17446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756674401.17446, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011545200737134179 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.829536712466327, 2.704097614830645, 0.6273196448727308, 0.42932357931188714, 0.02000227009300229, 0.45907457354056824, 0.0, 0.13660628237113986, 0.2820727210235253, 0.027260261306647233, 0.02464094517995897, 0.01134226073249967, 0.07090668543369427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020546227448586998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005868104256488185, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.0043392766864219865, 0.0004992891021050837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006759718771926677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010381920838562959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036486146261818564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050634840930635725 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 54.311048066096625, "peer_score": 18.550120969558556, "coverage": 0.9999675385255558, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999675385255558, "spot_peer_score": -3.7802058709240294, "spot_baseline_score": 11.103131238874395, "baseline_archived_score": 54.311048066096625, "peer_archived_score": 18.550120969558556, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.7802058709240294, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 11.103131238874395 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 759, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1974, the [Thames Water Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water_Authority) was established under the Water Act 1973 to consolidate water management in the Thames catchment area. In 1989, as part of the privatisation of England and Wales’s water industry, the Thames Water Authority was dissolved. Its water and sewage operations were transferred to the newly formed private company, [Thames Water](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Water). \n\nAfter privatisation in 1989, Thames Water began with zero debt, but this changed dramatically as new private owners took over and used debt to fund both infrastructure investment and substantial dividend payments. Ownership shifted between major international investors, including the German utility [RWE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RWE) and, most notably, the Australian investment bank [Macquarie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macquarie_Group). During Macquarie’s tenure (2006–2017), Thames Water’s debt soared from around £3.4 billion to over £10.8 billion.\n\nAfter Macquarie exited in 2017, ownership passed to a consortium including Borealis Infrastructure (OMERS) and Wren House (Kuwait Investment Authority). Despite the change, Thames Water’s debt continued to grow. By 2024–2025, its parent company, Kemble Water, had nearly £15 billion in debt and defaulted on repayments, while Thames Water itself was burdened with over £18 billion in total liabilities.\n\nIn June 2025, a [major private rescue deal collapsed](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/kkr-drops-out-thames-water-equity-raise-process-2025-06-03/), prompting the UK government to [step up preparations](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyq17lwe99o) for placing Thames Water into a [Special Administration Regime](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1991/56/part/II/chapter/II/crossheading/special-administration-orders/enacted) (SAR), a process designed to ensure continuity of critical services. This process involves appointing a special administrator to take control of the company and attempt to restructure or sell the business, however these steps often fail and the SAR becomes a precursor to full nationalisation." }, { "id": 38848, "title": "Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?", "short_title": "Thailand military coup pre Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Thailand military coup pre Sep 2025?", "slug": "thailand-military-coup-pre-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-10T05:40:32.537772Z", "published_at": "2025-07-11T14:00:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.981694Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-11T14:00:50Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T01:23:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 138, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:22:54.110864Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38162, "title": "Will Thailand experience a military coup before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-10T05:40:32.538216Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-16T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T01:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T01:23:36.009618Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-29T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Thailand has experienced [frequent military intervention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts_by_country#Thailand) in politics since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. Since then, there have been 12 successful military coups, alongside numerous attempted coups and periods of political instability. Recent military takeovers have been precipitated by civilian political crisis.\n\nIn June 2025, Thailand’s government, led by Prime Minister [Paetongtarn Shinawatra](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paetongtarn_Shinawatra), was [plunged into crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Thai_political_crisis) after a leaked phone call revealed her criticizing the military during [sensitive border negotiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) with Cambodia. Following this the [Bhumjaithai Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhumjaithai_Party) withdrew its support, leading to the resignation of several ministers and the loss of the government’s parliamentary majority. \n\nOn July 1, the [Constitutional Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Court_of_Thailand) suspended Paetongtarn from office, triggering a rapid succession of acting prime ministers where Deputy Prime Minister [Suriya Juangroongruangkit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suriya_Juangroongruangkit) and then [Phumtham Wechayachai](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phumtham_Wechayachai) each briefly served as acting prime minister while a new cabinet was sworn in.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 2025, the Royal Thai Armed Forces declare *all* of the following:\n\n* Martial law is in effect.\n* Parliament is suspended, dissolved or otherwise lacks authority.\n* The constitution is suspended, abrogated or is otherwise not in effect.", "fine_print": "To qualify for the criteria, the constitution does not have to fully suspended, partial suspension, such as the exclusion of certain sections will be sufficient.", "post_id": 38848, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756424181.62677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756424181.62677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01835389170987432 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.439048744272744, 5.095756512536442, 1.7049344405035574, 1.3909139110018016, 1.152732420000687, 0.0048790574785938816, 0.0067236276057129835, 0.012350188112547004, 0.0, 0.00041057211391749783, 0.008684416333133068, 0.0034311721361839085, 0.008246561353721116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06093430446591882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022855231852052916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03101129919345409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1762765477969897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006435767757889865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003033740382392937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.91116412186761, "peer_score": 16.296728779617514, "coverage": 0.9999355619485345, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999355619485345, "spot_peer_score": 7.1618797585451786, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 91.91116412186761, "peer_archived_score": 16.296728779617514, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.1618797585451786, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 692, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Thailand has experienced [frequent military intervention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts_by_country#Thailand) in politics since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. Since then, there have been 12 successful military coups, alongside numerous attempted coups and periods of political instability. Recent military takeovers have been precipitated by civilian political crisis.\n\nIn June 2025, Thailand’s government, led by Prime Minister [Paetongtarn Shinawatra](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paetongtarn_Shinawatra), was [plunged into crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Thai_political_crisis) after a leaked phone call revealed her criticizing the military during [sensitive border negotiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cambodian%E2%80%93Thai_border_crisis) with Cambodia. Following this the [Bhumjaithai Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bhumjaithai_Party) withdrew its support, leading to the resignation of several ministers and the loss of the government’s parliamentary majority. \n\nOn July 1, the [Constitutional Court](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Court_of_Thailand) suspended Paetongtarn from office, triggering a rapid succession of acting prime ministers where Deputy Prime Minister [Suriya Juangroongruangkit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suriya_Juangroongruangkit) and then [Phumtham Wechayachai](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phumtham_Wechayachai) each briefly served as acting prime minister while a new cabinet was sworn in." }, { "id": 38836, "title": "Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?", "short_title": "Rachel Reeves remains UK Chancellor until Dec. 2025?", "url_title": "Rachel Reeves remains UK Chancellor until Dec. 2025?", "slug": "rachel-reeves-remains-uk-chancellor-until-dec-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-08T22:08:06.211067Z", "published_at": "2025-07-10T01:32:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T04:16:41.354573Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-10T01:32:24.849714Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-11T01:32:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:22:54.110864Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:22:54.110864Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38151, "title": "Will Rachel Reeves remain UK Chancellor of the Exchequer until December, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-08T22:08:06.211487Z", "open_time": "2025-07-11T01:32:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-15T01:32:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-15T01:32:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-16T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 2, 2025, Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, [appeared](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qr9wlpnqo) to be in tears as Prime Minister Keir Starmer failed to confirm whether Reeves would remain in her role within the Labour cabinet. \n\nQuestions had been raised regarding Reeves' position as Chancellor due to a series of failings to push spending reforms through parliament — with the most notable opposition being members of her own party. The most recent legislative failure was regarding [welfare cuts worth £5 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/starmer-drops-bulk-of-welfare-reforms-to-avert-labour-revolt) which were effectively shelved by the Prime Minister after an in-party rebellion, leading to a prospect of further tax hikes and further scrutiny on the tenability of Reeves' position.\n\nWhilst Starmer eventually [backed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckg33njxve0t) Reeves' position as UK Chancellor, there remain significant challenges for the UK Chancellor.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Rachel Reeves continuously remains Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom until November 30, 2025, 23:59 GMT, according to the [UK Government](https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer). Otherwise this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the [UK Government](https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/chancellor-of-the-exchequer) website is unavailable or inaccurate, Metaculus may use [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/) to resolve this question.", "post_id": 38836, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757477791.115, "end_time": 1757599261.002, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757477791.115, "end_time": 1757599261.002, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10999999999999999, 0.89 ], "means": [ 0.8675995421447545 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.04978706836786394, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9807565159294513, 0.2581411659280016, 0.4326949339433014, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.8727893774349618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 2, 2025, Rachel Reeves, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, [appeared](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0qr9wlpnqo) to be in tears as Prime Minister Keir Starmer failed to confirm whether Reeves would remain in her role within the Labour cabinet. \n\nQuestions had been raised regarding Reeves' position as Chancellor due to a series of failings to push spending reforms through parliament — with the most notable opposition being members of her own party. The most recent legislative failure was regarding [welfare cuts worth £5 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/starmer-drops-bulk-of-welfare-reforms-to-avert-labour-revolt) which were effectively shelved by the Prime Minister after an in-party rebellion, leading to a prospect of further tax hikes and further scrutiny on the tenability of Reeves' position.\n\nWhilst Starmer eventually [backed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/ckg33njxve0t) Reeves' position as UK Chancellor, there remain significant challenges for the UK Chancellor." }, { "id": 38825, "title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "short_title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "url_title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "slug": "will-russia-attack-a-european-nato-member-before-2035", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-08T00:29:14.353420Z", "published_at": 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"exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38146, "title": "Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?", "created_at": "2025-07-08T00:29:14.353807Z", "open_time": "2025-07-10T00:20:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-14T00:20:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-14T00:20:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Source](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/local-war-in-six-months-and-russian-aggression-against-the-eu-in-five-danish-intelligence-forecast/):\n\n> If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years.\n> \n> The Danish Defence Intelligence Service stated this in its new threat assessment, DR [reports](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fe-i-ny-trusselsvurdering-risiko-storskalakrig-i-europa-inden-fem-aar).\n> \n> It is noted that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.\n> \n> Among the reasons, the intelligence community cites the fact that Russia, in parallel with the war against Ukraine, launched “a major restoration and reform of its armed forces.”\n> \n> Over the past year, these efforts have allegedly turned from restoration into “an intensified military buildup to wage war against NATO.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, credible sources report an attack on a European NATO member state by Russia.\n\nFor this question, an attack on a European NATO member state is defined as any of the following:\n\n* The presence of Russian troops within a European NATO state without permission of the country.\n* A direct military engagement between Russian and European NATO troops resulting in fatalities of European NATO troops.\n* A direct and intentional military attack within a European NATO state, acknowledged by Russia or widely reported by credible sources, to have been intentionally carried out by Russia.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, troops are defined as any uniformed military personnel.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, any NATO member state may act either as part of NATO as a whole, or on its own. NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be applicable.\n\nCyberwarfare or informal, clandestine, or unauthorized operations (e.g., those carried out by non-uniformed special forces, mercenaries, or private volunteers without the proper acknowledgement) will not be considered an attack by Russia and will not resolve this question.\n\nA country that joins NATO and either at the time of joining or following its admission to NATO satisfies these criteria will still resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\nAs of July 9, 2025, all NATO members other than the United States and Canada qualify as European NATO states.", "post_id": 38825, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757513474.796543, "end_time": 1782119246.083, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757513474.796543, "end_time": 1782119246.083, 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"unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Source](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/local-war-in-six-months-and-russian-aggression-against-the-eu-in-five-danish-intelligence-forecast/):\n\n> If the war against Ukraine stops or freezes, and NATO does not rearm, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe in about five years.\n> \n> The Danish Defence Intelligence Service stated this in its new threat assessment, DR [reports](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fe-i-ny-trusselsvurdering-risiko-storskalakrig-i-europa-inden-fem-aar).\n> \n> It is noted that the military threat from Russia will increase in the coming years.\n> \n> Among the reasons, the intelligence community cites the fact that Russia, in parallel with the war against Ukraine, launched “a major restoration and reform of its armed forces.”\n> \n> Over the past year, these efforts have allegedly turned from restoration into “an intensified military buildup to wage war against NATO.”" }, { "id": 38822, "title": "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Party before 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Party before 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-an-fec-form-1-filed-for-elon-musks-party-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-07T01:22:20.269627Z", "published_at": "2025-07-07T05:46:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T04:16:31.001273Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:22:54.110864Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:22:54.110864Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38143, "title": "Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-07T01:22:20.270065Z", "open_time": "2025-07-07T12:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-07T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-07T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america)\n\n> Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law.\n\n> The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \\$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money.\n\n> It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday.\n> \n> As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of \"America Party\" of \"DOGE\" or \"X\" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as \"wentsnowboarding \\[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses.\n\nA purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, a Form 1 \"Statement of Organization\" is filed with the US [Federal Election Commission](https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?data_type=processed) for any Elon Musk-founded political party, such as the [America Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/America_Party).", "fine_print": "If any political party under a different name than the America Party is founded or co-founded by Musk and files a Form 1 after July 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nIf there are any ambiguities over whether a Form 1 filing has occurred (such as scenarios in which the authenticity of a filing is in doubt), Metaculus may refer to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to verify the truth of the matter. \n\nForm 1 filings will only resolve this question if Musk is a founder or co-founder of the party, according to credible sources. Thus, edge cases such as the America Party being officially formed without Musk being named a founder will not count, even if Musk subsequently endorses or supports the party.", "post_id": 38822, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757477780.376978, "end_time": 1757699142.72, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757477780.376978, "end_time": 1757699142.72, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.31826055757947863 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09207380390900106, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.072905070304251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 1.6772502430429737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21215635293527685 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Associated Press via NPR (July 6, 2025): [Musk forms new party after split with Trump over tax and spending bill](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/06/g-s1-76292/musk-political-party-america)\n\n> Elon Musk said he's carrying out his threat to form a new political party after [his fissure with President Donald Trump](https://apnews.com/article/trump-musk-tax-bill-6e7845081259c34db785182c51569c0c), announcing the America Party in response to the president's sweeping tax cuts law.\n\n> The formation of new political parties is not uncommon, but they typically struggle to pull any significant support away from the Republican and Democratic parties. But Musk, the world's richest man who spent at least \\$250 million supporting Trump in the 2024 election, could impact the 2026 elections determining control of Congress if he is willing to spend significant amounts of money.\n\n> It wasn't clear whether Musk had taken steps to formally create the new political party. Spokespeople for Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, didn't immediately comment Sunday.\n> \n> As of Sunday morning, there were multiple political parties listed in the Federal Election Commission database that had been formed in the the hours since Musk's Saturday X post with versions of \"America Party\" of \"DOGE\" or \"X\" in the name, or Musk listed among people affiliated with the entity. But none appeared to be authentic, listing contacts for the organization as email addresses such as \"wentsnowboarding \\[at] yahoo.com″ or untraceable Protonmail addresses.\n\nA purported Form 1 filing of the America Party on July 6, 2025 [was reported](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1942009499109536185?s=46) by Elon Musk to be false. " }, { "id": 38813, "title": "Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?", "short_title": "Major atlantic hurricane landfall 2025 before Sep?", "url_title": "Major atlantic hurricane landfall 2025 before Sep?", "slug": "major-atlantic-hurricane-landfall-2025-before-sep", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-04T16:37:10.146459Z", "published_at": "2025-07-04T19:49:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.349981Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-04T19:58:35.390525Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T01:17:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-07T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38134, "title": "Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?", "created_at": "2025-07-04T16:37:10.146853Z", "open_time": "2025-07-07T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T01:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T01:30:27.837862Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From June to November each year, the Atlantic basin enters its [hurricane season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season), when sea‐surface temperatures, humidity, and atmospheric patterns are most conducive to tropical cyclone formation. Tropical waves often emerge off the west coast of Africa and, under favourable conditions, can develop into organized systems as they move westward across the warm Atlantic waters. These systems may then move toward the eastern seaboard of North America.\n\nA major hurricane is any tropical cyclone that reaches Category 3 strength or higher on the [Saffir–Simpson scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale), meaning sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h). At this intensity, storms can cause catastrophic structural damage, uproot trees, and generate life‑threatening storm surge along coastlines.\n\nWith the [2025 season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season) now underway, forecasts have pointed to an above average season, with [NOAA forecasting](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season) 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes across the entire season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 7 and before September 1, 2025, a Major Atlantic Hurricane (category 3 or higher) makes landfall.", "fine_print": "This question will use the [NOAA definition](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) to determine whether a hurricane makes landfall; specifically that the hurricane must have its [surface center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#CENTER) intersect with a coastline.", "post_id": 38813, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755197915.294462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755197915.294462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.359537261613025 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.738866925571953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042868757277762825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0831729602889247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1643614631935371, 0.0, 0.8853935582799671, 1.6202734967127155, 0.04037528627871981, 0.03111581913613042, 0.021710077376296863, 0.04235429107306202, 2.3300755686504515, 0.43023002198524435, 0.007414948227486167, 0.05981802649607819, 0.0, 1.1825864557061472, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2657519198328817, 0.0, 2.044791698604021, 0.6232535999505502, 1.108827800379295, 1.0926564454867689, 0.0, 0.13070104173495628, 0.6685798944238686, 0.0, 0.0020908006710962453, 0.0015233659059589726, 0.39040267658938177, 0.30721448793096584, 0.006639643375099136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0316665686789477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04578912126357006, 0.01814051570651832, 0.24061064515782007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1027218499487311, 0.016545052352399333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999837491431244, 0.02583872132393838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32187183052863955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036470026727336412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49072637228749416 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.602171264111426, "peer_score": 21.953166925026093, "coverage": 0.999806736902406, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999806736902406, "spot_peer_score": 36.15246982667602, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 43.602171264111426, "peer_archived_score": 21.953166925026093, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.15246982667602, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 666, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From June to November each year, the Atlantic basin enters its [hurricane season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season), when sea‐surface temperatures, humidity, and atmospheric patterns are most conducive to tropical cyclone formation. Tropical waves often emerge off the west coast of Africa and, under favourable conditions, can develop into organized systems as they move westward across the warm Atlantic waters. These systems may then move toward the eastern seaboard of North America.\n\nA major hurricane is any tropical cyclone that reaches Category 3 strength or higher on the [Saffir–Simpson scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale), meaning sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h). At this intensity, storms can cause catastrophic structural damage, uproot trees, and generate life‑threatening storm surge along coastlines.\n\nWith the [2025 season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season) now underway, forecasts have pointed to an above average season, with [NOAA forecasting](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season) 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes across the entire season." }, { "id": 38807, "title": "Will An American State Ban Factory Farming by 2030?", "short_title": "State Bans Factory Farming by 2030?", "url_title": "State Bans Factory Farming by 2030?", "slug": "state-bans-factory-farming-by-2030", "author_id": 270917, "author_username": "Gapetheape", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-03T23:56:56.165657Z", "published_at": "2025-07-04T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.994875Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-04T00:02:45.513719Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-08T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-05T00:00:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 38126, "title": "Will An American State Ban Factory Farming by 2030?", "created_at": "2025-07-03T23:56:56.166090Z", "open_time": "2025-07-05T00:00:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-08T04:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-08T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-08T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Grassroots animal advocacy organization Pro-Animal has the goal of passing a ban on factory farming in the United States by the end of 2030. This would be the first state to do so.It is part of a 10 year plan that was helped researched and constructed by Pax Fauna. You can read more about there [website](https://paxfauna.org/introducing-pro-animal-futures-10-year-plan/), as well as their [podcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE1YNSwyym8). ", "resolution_criteria": "An American state bans factory farms, defined as a Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations ([CAFOs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation)) and has some penalty for operating one inside the state's boundaries ", "fine_print": "Factory farming is defined as Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations ([CAFOs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation)) where a large amount of animals are kept for slaughter or getting products besides their flesh from them. 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This would be the first state to do so.It is part of a 10 year plan that was helped researched and constructed by Pax Fauna. You can read more about there [website](https://paxfauna.org/introducing-pro-animal-futures-10-year-plan/), as well as their [podcast](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE1YNSwyym8). " }, { "id": 38804, "title": "[Short fuse] Will the Government lose its majority in the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election?", "short_title": "Gov lose majority in 2025 Japanese HoC?", "url_title": "Gov lose majority in 2025 Japanese HoC?", "slug": "gov-lose-majority-in-2025-japanese-hoc", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-03T17:58:36.201464Z", "published_at": "2025-07-03T22:38:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.560974Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-03T22:39:22.563868Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-22T13:44:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-04T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38123, "title": "[Short fuse] Will the Government lose its majority in the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election?", "created_at": "2025-07-03T17:58:36.201906Z", "open_time": "2025-07-04T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-05T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-05T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-22T13:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-22T13:56:47.574434Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since its founding in 1955, the [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)) (LDP) dominated Japanese politics, governing continuously from 1955 to 1993. Briefly being out of government, it returned to power in 1994 where it was part of government without holding the prime ministership. Following the [1996 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Japanese_general_election), the LDP reclaimed the office of Prime Minister and remained in power until its second and most recent loss in 2009. The party returned to power in 2012 and has since governed in coalition with [Komeito](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komeito), though it has generally held a majority in the [House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_of_Japan) on its own.\n\nFollowing the [2024 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives, securing only 215 seats, below the 233 needed for a majority. Subsequently, Prime Minister [Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) formed a minority government with Komeito, relying on other parties to pass individual bills.\n\nThe [House of Councillors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Councillors), the upper chamber of the National Diet, has 248 members serving six-year terms, with half the seats contested every three years. While the House of Representatives holds greater authority, particularly in choosing the Prime Minister and passing the budget, the House of Councillors reviews and can delay legislation. The LDP-Komeito coalition currently holds a majority in the House of Councillors.\n\nThe [2025 House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) is scheduled for July 20, 2025, with 124 seats up for election. The governing coalition has a total 142 seats, with 75 seats retained and 67 seats up for election. To maintain a majority the coalition must win at least 50 seats. Throughout the past months, polling has suggested a close, but favourable number of seats for the coalition.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, following the 2025 election, the combined number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito in the Japanese House of Councillors is less than 125.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve upon the commencement of new terms in the House of Councillors, expected to take place on July 29, 2025, when newly elected members formally assume office. \n\nIf upon the commencement of new terms, the result of any seat is still undecided, and a councillor has not assumed office for the seat, this question will resolve when all such councillors have assumed office. Seats that are vacant due to other reasons, such as death or resignation, are not relevant to this criteria.\n\nIf the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election is not held, or new members have not assumed office before September 1, 2025, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 38804, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752951482.546153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752951482.546153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6364687798543494 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5938287972603064 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 42.81007898507347, "peer_score": 17.988322473150635, "coverage": 0.9998052357671106, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998052357671106, "spot_peer_score": 35.93361212689418, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 42.81007898507347, "peer_archived_score": 17.988322473150635, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.93361212689418, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since its founding in 1955, the [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)) (LDP) dominated Japanese politics, governing continuously from 1955 to 1993. Briefly being out of government, it returned to power in 1994 where it was part of government without holding the prime ministership. Following the [1996 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Japanese_general_election), the LDP reclaimed the office of Prime Minister and remained in power until its second and most recent loss in 2009. The party returned to power in 2012 and has since governed in coalition with [Komeito](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komeito), though it has generally held a majority in the [House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_of_Japan) on its own.\n\nFollowing the [2024 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election) the LDP-Komeito coalition lost its majority in the House of Representatives, securing only 215 seats, below the 233 needed for a majority. Subsequently, Prime Minister [Shigeru Ishiba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigeru_Ishiba) formed a minority government with Komeito, relying on other parties to pass individual bills.\n\nThe [House of Councillors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Councillors), the upper chamber of the National Diet, has 248 members serving six-year terms, with half the seats contested every three years. While the House of Representatives holds greater authority, particularly in choosing the Prime Minister and passing the budget, the House of Councillors reviews and can delay legislation. The LDP-Komeito coalition currently holds a majority in the House of Councillors.\n\nThe [2025 House of Councillors election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) is scheduled for July 20, 2025, with 124 seats up for election. The governing coalition has a total 142 seats, with 75 seats retained and 67 seats up for election. To maintain a majority the coalition must win at least 50 seats. Throughout the past months, polling has suggested a close, but favourable number of seats for the coalition." }, { "id": 38797, "title": "Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?", "short_title": "Employment decline in NAICS 52/54 >1% in any month, 2025-2029?", "url_title": "Employment decline in NAICS 52/54 >1% in any month, 2025-2029?", "slug": "employment-decline-in-naics-5254-1-in-any-month-2025-2029", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-02T21:33:50.496319Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T12:50:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.737455Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-14T12:53:31.562237Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-15T12:50:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38118, "title": "Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-07-02T21:33:50.496744Z", "open_time": "2025-07-15T12:50:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-19T12:50:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-19T12:50:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While AI systems, especially large language models (LLMs), are being rapidly adopted across sectors like law, finance, software, and consulting, the real-world impact on employment remains contested.\n\nSome experts suggest these tools act primarily as productivity enhancers, freeing up time for higher-value tasks. Others believe we are on the cusp of labour substitution, where AI systems begin replacing workers outright.\n\nHistorical data highlights how rare large drops are:\n\n* [NAICS 54](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag54.htm) has only ever experienced a >1% monthly drop once, in April 2020 (COVID).\n* [NAICS 52](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag52.htm) has never experienced a >1% monthly decline, even during the 2008 financial crisis.\n\nThis question aims to to detect unusual and abrupt employment shifts tied to AI substitution, rather than routine economic fluctuations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any month before January 2030, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports a month-over-month decline of more than 1.0% in for either:\n\n* [NAICS 52](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag52.htm): Finance and Insurance, or\n* [NAICS 54](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag54.htm): Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services", "fine_print": "This question will resolve only based on the final numbers released by BLS, no preliminary estimates will be used.", "post_id": 38797, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753133115.908917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753133115.908917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.28 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While AI systems, especially large language models (LLMs), are being rapidly adopted across sectors like law, finance, software, and consulting, the real-world impact on employment remains contested.\n\nSome experts suggest these tools act primarily as productivity enhancers, freeing up time for higher-value tasks. Others believe we are on the cusp of labour substitution, where AI systems begin replacing workers outright.\n\nHistorical data highlights how rare large drops are:\n\n* [NAICS 54](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag54.htm) has only ever experienced a >1% monthly drop once, in April 2020 (COVID).\n* [NAICS 52](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag52.htm) has never experienced a >1% monthly decline, even during the 2008 financial crisis.\n\nThis question aims to to detect unusual and abrupt employment shifts tied to AI substitution, rather than routine economic fluctuations." }, { "id": 38796, "title": "Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI release a powerful open-source AI model before October 2025?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI release a powerful open-source AI model before October 2025?", "slug": "will-openai-release-a-powerful-open-source-ai-model-before-october-2025", "author_id": 207737, "author_username": "EmanuelR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-02T20:42:36.562161Z", "published_at": "2025-07-17T11:20:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T03:05:38.387662Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-17T11:20:55.541268Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-18T11:20:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38117, "title": "Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-02T20:42:36.562541Z", "open_time": "2025-07-18T11:20:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-22T11:20:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-22T11:20:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[OpenAI plans to release a new open-source model](https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/23/openai-seeks-to-make-its-upcoming-open-ai-model-best-in-class), a significant move as its last open-weight model was GPT-2.\n\nThis new model is expected to be a \"text in, text out\" system focused on reasoning, similar to OpenAI's proprietary \"o-series\" models like [o1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI_o1), [o3, and o4-mini](https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/). These models are designed to \"think\" for longer before providing an answer, excelling at complex tasks. The performance of open-source models is often tracked on the public [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), which uses crowdsourced user votes to rank models. As of July 1st, 2025, top open-source models like Deepseek-R1, Qwen3-235B, and Gemma3 rank between 10th, 22nd, and 24th place, respectively, while OpenAI's closed o-series models, o3 and o4-mini, hold the 2nd and 10th places, respectively.\n\nThe release of the proposed OpenAI open-source model was delayed to later this summer, [quoting Sam Altman](https://x.com/sama/status/1932573231199707168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1932573231199707168%7Ctwgr%5E72ece85d251001bb769788f1d0fd8b3e4d3b3076%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2025%2F06%2F10%2Fopenais-open-model-is-delayed%2F):\n\n> we are going to take a little more time with our open-weights model, i.e. expect it later this summer but not june. our research team did something unexpected and quite amazing and we think it will be very very worth the wait, but needs a bit longer.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model is released by OpenAI before October 1, 2025 that meets both of the following criteria:\n\n1. The model has a license that is anything other than “proprietary,” and its weights are publicly available for download.\n2. The model is ranked in the top 35 on the [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) in the Text category one month after its release.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38796, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757559927.728826, "end_time": 1757980926.141, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757559927.728826, "end_time": 1757980926.141, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.356236159222526 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4947366220537814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4550171310104832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2948407431464806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[OpenAI plans to release a new open-source model](https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/23/openai-seeks-to-make-its-upcoming-open-ai-model-best-in-class), a significant move as its last open-weight model was GPT-2.\n\nThis new model is expected to be a \"text in, text out\" system focused on reasoning, similar to OpenAI's proprietary \"o-series\" models like [o1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI_o1), [o3, and o4-mini](https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/). These models are designed to \"think\" for longer before providing an answer, excelling at complex tasks. The performance of open-source models is often tracked on the public [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), which uses crowdsourced user votes to rank models. As of July 1st, 2025, top open-source models like Deepseek-R1, Qwen3-235B, and Gemma3 rank between 10th, 22nd, and 24th place, respectively, while OpenAI's closed o-series models, o3 and o4-mini, hold the 2nd and 10th places, respectively.\n\nThe release of the proposed OpenAI open-source model was delayed to later this summer, [quoting Sam Altman](https://x.com/sama/status/1932573231199707168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1932573231199707168%7Ctwgr%5E72ece85d251001bb769788f1d0fd8b3e4d3b3076%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2025%2F06%2F10%2Fopenais-open-model-is-delayed%2F):\n\n> we are going to take a little more time with our open-weights model, i.e. expect it later this summer but not june. our research team did something unexpected and quite amazing and we think it will be very very worth the wait, but needs a bit longer." }, { "id": 38783, "title": "Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Donald Trump attempt to deport Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Donald Trump attempt to deport Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-donald-trump-attempt-to-deport-elon-musk-before-july-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-01T14:52:45.831847Z", "published_at": "2025-07-01T17:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T04:14:06.276275Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-01T17:03:13.467138Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-01T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": 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"group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ABC News: [Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908) (July 1, 2025)\n\n> President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday his administration will \"have to take a look\" at deporting Elon Musk after the billionaire reignited the feud with the president over [his spending bill](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663?e!f).\n>  \n> Musk, a South African national and a naturalized U.S. citizen, made several weekend X posts slamming Republicans over the \"Big Beautiful Bill,\" arguing that it was adding more debt.\n>  \n> \"It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!,\" Musk posted Monday afternoon.\n\nNPR:[ DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement) (June 30, 2025)\n\n> Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate wrote in the memo that pursuing denaturalization will be among the agency's top five enforcement priorities for the civil division.\n>  \n> \"The Civil Division shall prioritize and maximally pursue denaturalization proceedings in all cases permitted by law and supported by the evidence,\" he said.\n>  \n> The focus on denaturalization is just the latest step by the Trump administration to reshape the nation's immigration system across all levels of government, turning it into a major focus across multiple federal agencies. That has come with redefining who is let into the United States or has the right to be an American.\n>  \n> . . . \n>  \n> The DOJ memo says that the federal government will pursue denaturalization cases via civil litigation — an especially concerning move, said Cassandra Robertson, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University.\n>  \n> In civil proceedings, any individual subject to denaturalization is not entitled to an attorney, Robertson said; there is also a lower burden of proof for the government to reach, and it is far easier and faster to reach a conclusion in these cases.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States Department of Justice, or any other government agency with the authority to do so, files a [revocation of naturalization](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1451) lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757552805.709, "end_time": 1758006940.699, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757552805.709, "end_time": 1758006940.699, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.05506112988655057 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.8617379949494424, 1.4206989037523399, 1.3633361863980384, 1.881862238554088, 0.12856727458371708, 1.2307522829530053, 0.6939525952509218, 0.2726621188860484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6568435282965762, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ABC News: [Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908) (July 1, 2025)\n\n> President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday his administration will \"have to take a look\" at deporting Elon Musk after the billionaire reignited the feud with the president over [his spending bill](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663?e!f).\n>  \n> Musk, a South African national and a naturalized U.S. citizen, made several weekend X posts slamming Republicans over the \"Big Beautiful Bill,\" arguing that it was adding more debt.\n>  \n> \"It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!,\" Musk posted Monday afternoon.\n\nNPR:[ DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement) (June 30, 2025)\n\n> Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate wrote in the memo that pursuing denaturalization will be among the agency's top five enforcement priorities for the civil division.\n>  \n> \"The Civil Division shall prioritize and maximally pursue denaturalization proceedings in all cases permitted by law and supported by the evidence,\" he said.\n>  \n> The focus on denaturalization is just the latest step by the Trump administration to reshape the nation's immigration system across all levels of government, turning it into a major focus across multiple federal agencies. That has come with redefining who is let into the United States or has the right to be an American.\n>  \n> . . . \n>  \n> The DOJ memo says that the federal government will pursue denaturalization cases via civil litigation — an especially concerning move, said Cassandra Robertson, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University.\n>  \n> In civil proceedings, any individual subject to denaturalization is not entitled to an attorney, Robertson said; there is also a lower burden of proof for the government to reach, and it is far easier and faster to reach a conclusion in these cases." }, { "id": 38778, "title": "test june30 binary", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "test-june30-binary", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-30T18:20:30.348459Z", "published_at": "2025-06-30T18:20:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.345874Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-30T18:20:46.596626Z", 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binary", "resolution_criteria": "test june30 binary", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38778, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "test june30 binary" }, { "id": 38770, "title": "Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?", "short_title": "Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?", "url_title": "Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?", "slug": "will-the-iranian-government-lose-power-before-2027", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-28T16:15:04.772735Z", "published_at": "2025-07-16T20:56:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:21:15.822690Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-16T20:56:33.687277Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-17T20:56:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": 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"exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38067, "title": "Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-06-28T16:15:04.773182Z", "open_time": "2025-07-17T20:56:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-21T20:56:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-21T20:56:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Islamic Republic of Iran was established following the [1979 revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) that overthrew the monarchy. Since then, the country has maintained a centralized political system dominated by clerical leadership, while experiencing periods of both internal unrest and external pressure. Over the past four decades, the government has faced challenges including war, sanctions, and protests, but has remained in power. As of 2025, heightened international tensions, economic instability, and government unpopularity has left open the possibility of the government losing power.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a state controlling the majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory as of July 1, 2025 meets both of the following criteria, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions):\n\n1. Neither Ali Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian or the Guardian Council have formal political authority in the country.\n2. Iran's constitution does not refer to the state as an Islamic Republic.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either a foreign country or no entity controls a majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory, even if the primary criteria has not been met.\n\nIf the relevant state has no constitution, that will be sufficient to meet criterion 2.\n\nIf the Guardian Council shares no members with its composition as of July 1, 2025, that will be considered sufficient to meet the requirement that it no longer holds political authority.", "post_id": 38770, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757500281.614, "end_time": 1757950593.231, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.075 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757500281.614, "end_time": 1757950593.231, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.075 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.925, 0.075 ], "means": [ 0.16445070533048686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 1.163464973509738, 0.884170266597878, 1.4464263529540335, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Islamic Republic of Iran was established following the [1979 revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) that overthrew the monarchy. Since then, the country has maintained a centralized political system dominated by clerical leadership, while experiencing periods of both internal unrest and external pressure. Over the past four decades, the government has faced challenges including war, sanctions, and protests, but has remained in power. As of 2025, heightened international tensions, economic instability, and government unpopularity has left open the possibility of the government losing power." }, { "id": 38769, "title": "Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?", "short_title": "Strait of Hormuz closed 2025?", "url_title": "Strait of Hormuz closed 2025?", "slug": "strait-of-hormuz-closed-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-28T13:19:17.182557Z", "published_at": "2025-07-16T23:28:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T13:08:10.097846Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-16T23:28:13.832979Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-17T23:28:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:09:34.209559Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:09:34.209559Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38066, "title": "Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-06-28T13:19:17.182913Z", "open_time": "2025-07-17T23:28:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-21T23:28:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-21T23:28:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[IMF Portwatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/), in partnership with the University of Oxford in the UK, offers satellite-based data on vessels to help users assess the impact of extreme events on global trade. Among the chokepoints it [monitors](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/port-monitor) is the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only maritime passage from the Persian Gulf into the ocean. \n\nThe Strait of Hormuz has long been the world's most important chokepoint for oil transit, from oil-rich Gulf states to the world's consumers of oil:\n\n(Source: the [US Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=4430))\n\nRoughly 20% of the world's crude oil passes through the Strait each day. If shipping got cut off, it could have significant impact on the world's oil volumes and put sharp upward pressure on world energy prices. ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504))  \n\nAmid the [Iran–Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war), there were reports in June 2025 that Iran was considering closing the Strait, with a Persian-language media source headlined \"If America goes to war with Iran, closing the Strait of Hormuz is our legitimate right.\" ([Mehr News](https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6504770/%D8%A7%DA%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%86%DA%AF%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D8%AD%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9-%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA), translated)\n\nAccording to [Modern Diplomacy](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/19/assessing-potential-maritime-fallout-of-israel-iran-conflict/):\n\n> This Iranian threat is not merely rhetorical, as the Iranian Navy and IRGC Navy have the capability to impose a blockade in the strait using asymmetric means like swarming with small, fast attack crafts equipped with cruise missiles and rockets, drones, naval mines, and coastal batteries of cruise and ballistic missiles of varying capabilities. In addition, Iranian naval forces also operate several frigates, corvettes, and submarines, which are also tasked to complement blockade efforts. Further compounding maritime risk is the presence of Iran’s two drone carriers—Shahed Bagheri and Shahed Madabi. These converted commercial vessels are capable of launching large drones, missiles, and helicopters, and thus also represent a significant strike capability for Iran at sea. Although the U.S. Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, which, along with allied naval assets, is positioned to respond against such blockade measures, any direct military engagement risks further escalating the conflict into a regional war.\n\nFor more information see also from The War Zone defense news: [Could Iran Carry Out Its Threat To Shut Down The Strait Of Hormuz?](https://www.twz.com/news-features/could-iran-carry-out-its-threat-to-shut-the-strait-of-hormuz)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the lowest number of tanker ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on a single day during 2025, is less than 10.\n\nThe resolution source is IMF Port Watch's [Daily Port Calls](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730) for the Strait of Hormuz.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38769, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757339645.509, "end_time": 1757863087.427, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757339645.509, "end_time": 1757863087.427, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.07244824911660036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8680988742991211, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5365545858887129, 0.3147232704804096, 0.9147433463583032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[IMF Portwatch](https://portwatch.imf.org/), in partnership with the University of Oxford in the UK, offers satellite-based data on vessels to help users assess the impact of extreme events on global trade. Among the chokepoints it [monitors](https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/port-monitor) is the Strait of Hormuz, which is the only maritime passage from the Persian Gulf into the ocean. \n\nThe Strait of Hormuz has long been the world's most important chokepoint for oil transit, from oil-rich Gulf states to the world's consumers of oil:\n\n(Source: the [US Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=4430))\n\nRoughly 20% of the world's crude oil passes through the Strait each day. If shipping got cut off, it could have significant impact on the world's oil volumes and put sharp upward pressure on world energy prices. ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504))  \n\nAmid the [Iran–Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war), there were reports in June 2025 that Iran was considering closing the Strait, with a Persian-language media source headlined \"If America goes to war with Iran, closing the Strait of Hormuz is our legitimate right.\" ([Mehr News](https://www.mehrnews.com/news/6504770/%D8%A7%DA%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%86%DA%AF%D9%87-%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%B2-%D8%AD%D9%82-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9-%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA), translated)\n\nAccording to [Modern Diplomacy](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/19/assessing-potential-maritime-fallout-of-israel-iran-conflict/):\n\n> This Iranian threat is not merely rhetorical, as the Iranian Navy and IRGC Navy have the capability to impose a blockade in the strait using asymmetric means like swarming with small, fast attack crafts equipped with cruise missiles and rockets, drones, naval mines, and coastal batteries of cruise and ballistic missiles of varying capabilities. In addition, Iranian naval forces also operate several frigates, corvettes, and submarines, which are also tasked to complement blockade efforts. Further compounding maritime risk is the presence of Iran’s two drone carriers—Shahed Bagheri and Shahed Madabi. These converted commercial vessels are capable of launching large drones, missiles, and helicopters, and thus also represent a significant strike capability for Iran at sea. Although the U.S. Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain, which, along with allied naval assets, is positioned to respond against such blockade measures, any direct military engagement risks further escalating the conflict into a regional war.\n\nFor more information see also from The War Zone defense news: [Could Iran Carry Out Its Threat To Shut Down The Strait Of Hormuz?](https://www.twz.com/news-features/could-iran-carry-out-its-threat-to-shut-the-strait-of-hormuz)" }, { "id": 38768, "title": "Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?", "short_title": "Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?", "url_title": "Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?", "slug": "will-the-united-states-conduct-a-ground-invasion-of-iran-before-2027", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-28T13:10:21.506672Z", "published_at": "2025-07-16T23:23:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.148931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-16T23:23:56.926077Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-26T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-17T23:23:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:09:34.209559Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:09:34.209559Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38065, "title": "Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-06-28T13:10:21.507073Z", "open_time": "2025-07-17T23:23:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-21T23:23:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-21T23:23:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-26T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-26T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been adversarial since the [1979 Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and the subsequent [hostage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis) at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic ties were severed in 1980 and have not been restored. Over the following decades, the two states have engaged in indirect confrontation through sanctions, covert operations, and proxy conflicts. Central to ongoing tensions has been [Iran’s nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran), which the U.S. and its allies have sought to limit due to concerns over potential weaponization. The United States designates Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, while Iran views U.S. military presence in the region as a threat to its sovereignty and security. Repeated attempts at diplomatic engagement, including the 2015 [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), have yielded only temporary de-escalations and remain a source of contention.\n\nSince 2023, tensions between the United States and Iran have [escalated steadily](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Eastern_crisis_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)). The U.S. has increased military deployments across the Middle East, including naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz and troop rotations in neighboring countries. Iran has responded with heightened ballistic missile tests, drone attacks on U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria, and naval harassment of commercial shipping. \n\nIn April 2025, the U.S. and Iran [held talks on a new agreement](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) to limit Iran’s nuclear program. The negotiations, mediated by Oman, continued through May, with discussions focusing on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. However, these talks faced significant challenges, particularly over the U.S. demand for zero enrichment, which Iran considers unacceptable. Despite some progress, the talks ultimately collapsed in June following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, [Iran suspended the negotiations indefinitely.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/14/iran-says-nuclear-talks-with-us-meaningless-as-trump-pushes-for-a-deal)\n\nIn June 2025, the U.S. launched [coordinated airstrikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on multiple Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation. Iran retaliated with [missile strikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Al_Udeid_Air_Base) targeting U.S. bases in the region. These actions have intensified fears of broader military confrontation, while diplomatic efforts remain stalled. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, at least 100 United States ground troops are located within the internationally recognized borders of Iran for more than 5 consecutive days.", "fine_print": "“Ground troops” refers to uniformed personnel of the U.S. military engaged in active ground operations.", "post_id": 38768, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757505249.636, "end_time": 1757906499.456, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757505249.636, "end_time": 1757906499.456, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.975, 0.025 ], "means": [ 0.07787253478021654 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6377149204996709, 2.2033004145357244, 1.5059071811155131, 0.08122031490464846, 0.887332896049865, 0.5181819454816633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8907311148927053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been adversarial since the [1979 Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and the subsequent [hostage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis) at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic ties were severed in 1980 and have not been restored. Over the following decades, the two states have engaged in indirect confrontation through sanctions, covert operations, and proxy conflicts. Central to ongoing tensions has been [Iran’s nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran), which the U.S. and its allies have sought to limit due to concerns over potential weaponization. The United States designates Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, while Iran views U.S. military presence in the region as a threat to its sovereignty and security. Repeated attempts at diplomatic engagement, including the 2015 [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), have yielded only temporary de-escalations and remain a source of contention.\n\nSince 2023, tensions between the United States and Iran have [escalated steadily](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Eastern_crisis_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)). The U.S. has increased military deployments across the Middle East, including naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz and troop rotations in neighboring countries. Iran has responded with heightened ballistic missile tests, drone attacks on U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria, and naval harassment of commercial shipping. \n\nIn April 2025, the U.S. and Iran [held talks on a new agreement](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) to limit Iran’s nuclear program. The negotiations, mediated by Oman, continued through May, with discussions focusing on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. However, these talks faced significant challenges, particularly over the U.S. demand for zero enrichment, which Iran considers unacceptable. Despite some progress, the talks ultimately collapsed in June following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, [Iran suspended the negotiations indefinitely.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/14/iran-says-nuclear-talks-with-us-meaningless-as-trump-pushes-for-a-deal)\n\nIn June 2025, the U.S. launched [coordinated airstrikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on multiple Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation. Iran retaliated with [missile strikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Al_Udeid_Air_Base) targeting U.S. bases in the region. These actions have intensified fears of broader military confrontation, while diplomatic efforts remain stalled. " }, { "id": 38766, "title": "Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?", "short_title": "AI moratorium BBB", "url_title": "AI moratorium BBB", "slug": "ai-moratorium-bbb", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-28T01:06:24.799758Z", "published_at": "2025-06-29T11:16:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T06:36:05.645569Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-29T11:18:30.550684Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-30T11:16:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38063, "title": "Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?", "created_at": "2025-06-28T01:06:24.800197Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T11:16:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-04T11:16:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-04T11:16:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1) [passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), is a bill passed via the budget reconciliation process. Among its provisions is a [10-year moratorium on state regulation of artificial intelligence](https://time.com/7297580/ai-moratorium-senate-big-beautiful-bill/), which would [prohibit states from enforcing laws that limit, restrict, or regulate AI models and systems in interstate commerce](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1). In the current bill, there is a lack of clarity over whether this affects \\$500 million of infrastructure funding, or \\$42 billion of BEAD broadband funding, and as of writing there are [discussions with the Senate Parlaimentarian about this](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/26/congress/parliamentarian-requests-cruz-rewrite-ai-moratorium-00427371).\n\nThis provision has sparked significant bipartisan opposition. [Over 260 bipartisan state lawmakers](https://www.citizen.org/news/bipartisan-opposition-to-cruzs-ai-moratorium-gains-momentum/) have expressed concerns about the moratorium. Five Republican senators including [Josh Hawley](https://www.techpolicy.press/proposed-federal-moratorium-on-state-ai-laws-clears-hurdle-in-us-senate/) have \"indicated concerns or doubts\".\n\nSenate Majority Leader John Thune [aims to pass the bill by July 4, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), but the [narrow House margin (215-214)](https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-passed-us-house-2075670) and bipartisan Senate opposition suggest significant negotiations ahead.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is signed into law by the President before July 1, 2026, and contains an AI moratorium provision with the following features:\n\n1. It maintains a prohibition period of at least 5 years (50% or more of the original 10-year proposal)\n2. It covers AI models and/or AI systems (not necessarily both)\n3. It either restricts state regulation entirely OR restricts federal funding to states by \\$100 million or more in total\n\nThis question will resolve as **NO** if:\n\n* The bill is not signed into law by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET\n* The final enacted version contains no AI moratorium provision meeting the above criteria\n* Congress officially abandons or indefinitely tables the bill before July 1, 2026", "fine_print": "If the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is split into multiple pieces of legislation, only the piece officially labeled as the \"BBB Act\" or \"One Big Beautiful Bill\" will count for resolution. If no piece retains this designation, the question resolves NO.\n\nIf the AI moratorium is moved to separate legislation outside of the BBB Act, this resolves NO regardless of whether that separate legislation passes. The moratorium must be part of the specific One Big Beautiful Bill Act referenced in this question.\n\nModifications that limit the moratorium to specific but significant sectors (e.g., only interstate commerce) still qualify as long as the other criteria are met. Likewise, sunset clauses or review periods within the moratorium period do not disqualify it from counting.", "post_id": 38766, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757486155.186338, "end_time": 1758463827.233, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757486155.186338, "end_time": 1758463827.233, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04976494580808942 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.6780459724321055, 0.8011938300956611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1) [passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), is a bill passed via the budget reconciliation process. Among its provisions is a [10-year moratorium on state regulation of artificial intelligence](https://time.com/7297580/ai-moratorium-senate-big-beautiful-bill/), which would [prohibit states from enforcing laws that limit, restrict, or regulate AI models and systems in interstate commerce](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1). In the current bill, there is a lack of clarity over whether this affects \\$500 million of infrastructure funding, or \\$42 billion of BEAD broadband funding, and as of writing there are [discussions with the Senate Parlaimentarian about this](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/26/congress/parliamentarian-requests-cruz-rewrite-ai-moratorium-00427371).\n\nThis provision has sparked significant bipartisan opposition. [Over 260 bipartisan state lawmakers](https://www.citizen.org/news/bipartisan-opposition-to-cruzs-ai-moratorium-gains-momentum/) have expressed concerns about the moratorium. Five Republican senators including [Josh Hawley](https://www.techpolicy.press/proposed-federal-moratorium-on-state-ai-laws-clears-hurdle-in-us-senate/) have \"indicated concerns or doubts\".\n\nSenate Majority Leader John Thune [aims to pass the bill by July 4, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), but the [narrow House margin (215-214)](https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-passed-us-house-2075670) and bipartisan Senate opposition suggest significant negotiations ahead." }, { "id": 38731, "title": "Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?", "short_title": "UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliament?", "url_title": "UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliament?", "slug": "uk-economy-grow-by-at-least-2-in-any-year-of-the-59th-parliament", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-27T15:29:05.464406Z", "published_at": "2025-07-17T23:33:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.950882Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-17T23:33:20.826973Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-09T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-18T23:33:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T01:56:19.868790Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T01:56:19.868790Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38023, "title": "Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% in any year of the 59th parliamentary term?", "created_at": "2025-06-27T15:29:05.464809Z", "open_time": "2025-07-18T23:33:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-22T23:33:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-22T23:33:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-09T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-07-09T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-economy-grow-by-at-least-GDP-in-a-year-this-parliamentary-term)\n\n***\n\nWhether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n\nAs of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n\n* International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n* Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n* EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n* KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n* S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n\n## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n\nChancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n\n* The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n* The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n* The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n\n## **Structural and External Challenges**\n\n* Productivity and investment\n * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n* Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n* Inflation and monetary policy\n * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n* US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n* Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n\nWhile there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any calendar year of the 59th UK parliamentary term (begun on July 9, 2024), the real annual GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom rounded to two decimal places reaches or exceeds 2.00%, according to the final GDP statistics published by the [UK Office for National Statistics (ONS)](https://www.ons.gov.uk/).", "fine_print": "* Preliminary estimates will not be used to resolve this question.\n* The GDP growth figure must be inflation-adjusted.\n*  If necessary, corroborating reports from reputable economic outlets (e.g., Financial Times, Reuters, BBC) may also be used for clarification.\n* All years in which the 59th parliament is in session for more than half the year will count. The 59th parliament began on July 9, 2024 and is scheduled to be dissolved on July 9, 2029, making the eligible years 2025-2029. If parliament dissolves before the midpoint of 2029, July 2, then 2029 will not count.", "post_id": 38731, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756979209.010981, "end_time": 1761536873.955, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756979209.010981, "end_time": 1761536873.955, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.4253831722019255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4658623751583557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-UK-economy-grow-by-at-least-GDP-in-a-year-this-parliamentary-term)\n\n***\n\nWhether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n\nAs of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n\n* International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n* Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n* EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n* KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n* S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n\n## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n\nChancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n\n* The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n* The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n* The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n\n## **Structural and External Challenges**\n\n* Productivity and investment\n * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n* Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n* Inflation and monetary policy\n * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n* US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n* Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n\nWhile there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts." }, { "id": 38730, "title": "Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% during the 59th parliament term?", "short_title": "Will small boat crossings drop by at least half during the 59th parliament term?", "url_title": "Will small boat crossings drop by at least half during the 59th parliament term?", "slug": "will-small-boat-crossings-drop-by-at-least-half-during-the-59th-parliament-term", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-27T15:27:28.278301Z", "published_at": "2025-07-17T13:44:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.828193Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-17T13:45:13.840421Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-09T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-18T13:44:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T01:56:19.868790Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T01:56:19.868790Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38022, "title": "Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% during the 59th parliament term?", "created_at": "2025-06-27T15:27:28.279076Z", "open_time": "2025-07-18T13:44:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-22T13:44:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-22T13:44:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-07-09T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% this parliament?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Labour-reduce-small-boat-crossings-in-the-English-Channel-by-at-least-this-parliament)\n\n***\n\nSince 2018, the number of people [<u>crossing the English Channel</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/) in small boats to enter the UK without authorization has risen sharply,[<u> making it a central and contentious issue in British politics</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/). These crossings have become a symbol of broader debates around immigration, border security, and asylum policy. Both the previous Conservative and [<u>current Labour governments</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyd47510gyo) have faced intense political pressure to reduce these arrivals, with public opinion and media coverage closely tracking the numbers.\n\nTrends and Data\n\n* In 2022, Channel crossings [<u>peaked at approximately 46,000</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/), driven largely by a surge in [<u>Albanian arrivals</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/).\n* Crossings fell in 2023, but [<u>rose again in 2024</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/), with about 36,800 arrivals—a 25% increase from the previous year.\n* Since Labour took office, [<u>over 20,000 people have crossed in small boats </u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyd47510gyo)within the first five months, exceeding the same period in 2023 but remaining below the 2022 peak.\n* [<u>Early 2025 data</u>](https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/02/uk-migrant-crossings-hit-yearly-high-as-pressure-mounts-on-labour-government) shows further increases, with nearly 1,200 people crossing in a single day in June, the highest daily figure that year.\n\nLabour's Strategy: \n\n* Upon taking office in July 2024, [<u>Labour scrapped the Rwanda plan, criticizing it as a \"gimmick\" </u>](https://www.brusselstimes.com/1040675/uk-labour-party-unveils-its-plan-to-tackle-channel-crossing-networks)and pledging instead to [<u>focus on dismantling smuggling networks that facilitate Channel crossings</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/). Labour's approach includes:\n * Establishing a [<u>new Border Security Command </u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/)and recruiting hundreds of specialist investigators.\n * Using [<u>anti-terrorism tactics and expanding police powers to target smuggling gangs, including seizing assets and mobile phones</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/).\n * Increasing [<u>cooperation with European partners</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/), such as joint operations with France and security agreements with countries like Iraq and Serbia.\n * Introducing new legislation (the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill) that retains some controversial measures, such as [<u>restricting modern slavery claims and detaining child refugees</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/illegal-migration-labour-starmer-slavery-b2688994.html).\n\nThe ongoing rise in crossings has intensified scrutiny of Labour's strategy, with critics (including the Conservative opposition) arguing that [<u>abandoning the Rwanda plan has emboldened smugglers and increased arrivals</u>](https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/02/uk-migrant-crossings-hit-yearly-high-as-pressure-mounts-on-labour-government). Labour, meanwhile, maintains that targeting criminal networks and international cooperation will yield results, but acknowledges that [<u>many factors influencing crossings are beyond government control</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point during the 59th UK parliamentary term (begun on July 9, 2024), the total annual number of people detected arriving in the UK via small boat crossings across the English Channel is at least 50% lower than the total reported for 2023, according to the [UK Home Office’s published small boat statistics](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats).", "fine_print": "* As of mid-2025, the 2023 number is 29,437, meaning that the annual small boat arrivals must fall to 14,718 or below for this question to resolve as **Yes**. However, if the 2023 number is revised, so will the threshold for this question.\n* All years in which the 59th parliament is in session for more than half the year will count. The 59th parliament began on July 9, 2024 and is scheduled to be dissolved on July 9, 2029, making the eligible years 2025-2029. If parliament dissolves before the midpoint of 2029, July 2, then 2029 will not count.", "post_id": 38730, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755015765.680009, "end_time": 1767012964.324, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755015765.680009, "end_time": 1767012964.324, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.3703038927907953 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% this parliament?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Labour-reduce-small-boat-crossings-in-the-English-Channel-by-at-least-this-parliament)\n\n***\n\nSince 2018, the number of people [<u>crossing the English Channel</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/) in small boats to enter the UK without authorization has risen sharply,[<u> making it a central and contentious issue in British politics</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/). These crossings have become a symbol of broader debates around immigration, border security, and asylum policy. Both the previous Conservative and [<u>current Labour governments</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyd47510gyo) have faced intense political pressure to reduce these arrivals, with public opinion and media coverage closely tracking the numbers.\n\nTrends and Data\n\n* In 2022, Channel crossings [<u>peaked at approximately 46,000</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/), driven largely by a surge in [<u>Albanian arrivals</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/).\n* Crossings fell in 2023, but [<u>rose again in 2024</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/), with about 36,800 arrivals—a 25% increase from the previous year.\n* Since Labour took office, [<u>over 20,000 people have crossed in small boats </u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyd47510gyo)within the first five months, exceeding the same period in 2023 but remaining below the 2022 peak.\n* [<u>Early 2025 data</u>](https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/02/uk-migrant-crossings-hit-yearly-high-as-pressure-mounts-on-labour-government) shows further increases, with nearly 1,200 people crossing in a single day in June, the highest daily figure that year.\n\nLabour's Strategy: \n\n* Upon taking office in July 2024, [<u>Labour scrapped the Rwanda plan, criticizing it as a \"gimmick\" </u>](https://www.brusselstimes.com/1040675/uk-labour-party-unveils-its-plan-to-tackle-channel-crossing-networks)and pledging instead to [<u>focus on dismantling smuggling networks that facilitate Channel crossings</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/). Labour's approach includes:\n * Establishing a [<u>new Border Security Command </u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/)and recruiting hundreds of specialist investigators.\n * Using [<u>anti-terrorism tactics and expanding police powers to target smuggling gangs, including seizing assets and mobile phones</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/).\n * Increasing [<u>cooperation with European partners</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/), such as joint operations with France and security agreements with countries like Iraq and Serbia.\n * Introducing new legislation (the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill) that retains some controversial measures, such as [<u>restricting modern slavery claims and detaining child refugees</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/illegal-migration-labour-starmer-slavery-b2688994.html).\n\nThe ongoing rise in crossings has intensified scrutiny of Labour's strategy, with critics (including the Conservative opposition) arguing that [<u>abandoning the Rwanda plan has emboldened smugglers and increased arrivals</u>](https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/02/uk-migrant-crossings-hit-yearly-high-as-pressure-mounts-on-labour-government). Labour, meanwhile, maintains that targeting criminal networks and international cooperation will yield results, but acknowledges that [<u>many factors influencing crossings are beyond government control</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/)." }, { "id": 38712, "title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?", "short_title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between in Jun-Dec 2025?", "url_title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between in Jun-Dec 2025?", "slug": "will-any-new-country-attack-israel-or-iran-between-in-jun-dec-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-25T13:18:37.477599Z", "published_at": "2025-07-01T01:35:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T04:16:20.385930Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-01T01:35:47.309967Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-02T01:35:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:09:34.209559Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:22:54.110864Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T04:09:34.209559Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37997, "title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-25T13:18:37.478070Z", "open_time": "2025-07-02T01:35:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-04T01:35:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-04T01:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries. On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 30, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any country besides Israel, Iran, Palestine, or the US attacks Israel or Iran.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an attack is defined as either:\n\n* A kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear attack targeting officials, infrastructure, or the military, occurring within the borders of Israel or Iran. (See Fine Print for detailed explanation of Israel's borders.)\n* At least 20 official military personnel entering the internationally recognised land borders of Israel or Iran, without the Israel or Iran's overt permission.", "fine_print": "* Attacks that are part of covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n* Attacks targeting officials of Israel or Iran will count even if they are conducted outside of each countries internationally recognised borders.\n* For the purposes of this question, Israel's borders are defined based on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will count.\n* The attacking country has to either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its official armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) unambiguously attribute it to its armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n* For the purposes of this question, a country is a UN member or non-member observer state.", "post_id": 38712, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757477769.918299, "end_time": 1757612728.023, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757477769.918299, "end_time": 1757612728.023, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11590284196857088 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2359098466192964, 0.6308407491715394, 0.09630553750946041, 0.5886483876948753, 0.8905027676220749, 0.8403453944754132, 0.08253138866588176, 0.6958191318642392, 0.38043555332875517, 0.8811400321569349, 0.9738690914169136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0582871246890273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22522176446232095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20510764775594886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries. On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq." }, { "id": 38693, "title": "Will Faith Kipyegon break the 4-minute mile on June 26, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Faith Kipyegon break the 4-minute mile on June 26, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Faith Kipyegon break the 4-minute mile on June 26, 2025?", "slug": "will-faith-kipyegon-break-the-4-minute-mile-on-june-26-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-24T19:35:31.575330Z", "published_at": "2025-06-25T00:28:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.234340Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-25T00:28:52.255232Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-26T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-26T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-27T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-26T17:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-25T01:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37952, "title": "Will Faith Kipyegon break the 4-minute mile on June 26, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-24T19:35:31.576089Z", "open_time": "2025-06-25T01:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-25T02:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-25T02:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-27T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-26T17:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-26T18:11:15.652124Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-26T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-26T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Washington Post: [A woman has never run a sub-4-minute mile. Will Faith Kipyegon be the first?](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/06/24/faith-kipyegon-4-minute-mile-run/) \n\n> The 31-year-old will need to shave just under eight seconds off her record time of 4 minutes 7.64 seconds when she makes her attempt Thursday on the first of a three-day window in the Nike-sponsored Breaking4 race in Paris. While that is a daunting task, she will have plenty of help — ranging from cutting-edge attire and a public relations push to old-school strategy such as drafting behind pacesetters.\n\n> As with Eliud Kipchoge’s Breaking2 sub-two-hour marathon in 2019, a world record is unlikely to be recognized by World Athletics, track and field’s governing body, because the event isn’t sanctioned and pacesetters will be used. That, however, is beside the point with this effort. Kipyegon and the scientists who have researched her technique are focused on the long-range implications.\n\n> Studying the energy she used during her mile record, the scientists found she could run roughly a 3:59.37 mile “with drafting provided by one pacer in front and one in back who change out with two other pacers at 800 meters.” It’s as simple as “the runner in front literally pushing air molecules out of the way,” Rodger Kram, a University of Colorado emeritus professor in integrative physiology and one of the authors of the paper, said in an interview.\n\nRunner's World: [Faith Kipyegon Aims to Become the First Woman to Run a Sub-4-Minute Mile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/06/24/faith-kipyegon-4-minute-mile-run/)\n\n> On Thursday, June 26 in Paris, Faith Kipyegon will try to make history on the track.\n\n> In an Nike-supported event similar to those in which Eliud Kipchoge attempted to break the 2-hour marathon barrier, Kipyegon will try to become the first woman in history to run a sub-4-minute mile. The modified time trial will take place at the Stade Sébastien Charléty in Paris, the same track where she broke both the 1500-meter and 5,000-meter world records.\n\n> The 31-year-old Kenyan already owns three Olympic gold medals in 1500 meters and the [world record in the mile](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a44614392/kipyegon-mile-world-record-hiltz-american-record/)—she blitzed a 4:07.64 clocking two years ago in Monaco to obliterate the previous record by more than four and a half seconds—but now she’ll attempt the quest of dropping nearly 8 more seconds to break the 4-minute barrier.\n\nThe event can be viewed on Youtube [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZNHaUtLCnA).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Faith Kipyegon runs a sub-4-minute mile on July 26, 2025 at Nike's [Breaking4](https://about.nike.com/en/topics/breaking4) event. ", "fine_print": "If the event is postponed, resolution will wait up to another two days. If the event is not held before June 29, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 38693, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750923342.6, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750923342.6, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.4644794903675393 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -37.92316783725243, "peer_score": 1.2789212996348969, "coverage": 0.8014197869284518, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8014197869284518, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -37.92316783725243, "peer_archived_score": 1.2789212996348969, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Washington Post: [A woman has never run a sub-4-minute mile. Will Faith Kipyegon be the first?](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/06/24/faith-kipyegon-4-minute-mile-run/) \n\n> The 31-year-old will need to shave just under eight seconds off her record time of 4 minutes 7.64 seconds when she makes her attempt Thursday on the first of a three-day window in the Nike-sponsored Breaking4 race in Paris. While that is a daunting task, she will have plenty of help — ranging from cutting-edge attire and a public relations push to old-school strategy such as drafting behind pacesetters.\n\n> As with Eliud Kipchoge’s Breaking2 sub-two-hour marathon in 2019, a world record is unlikely to be recognized by World Athletics, track and field’s governing body, because the event isn’t sanctioned and pacesetters will be used. That, however, is beside the point with this effort. Kipyegon and the scientists who have researched her technique are focused on the long-range implications.\n\n> Studying the energy she used during her mile record, the scientists found she could run roughly a 3:59.37 mile “with drafting provided by one pacer in front and one in back who change out with two other pacers at 800 meters.” It’s as simple as “the runner in front literally pushing air molecules out of the way,” Rodger Kram, a University of Colorado emeritus professor in integrative physiology and one of the authors of the paper, said in an interview.\n\nRunner's World: [Faith Kipyegon Aims to Become the First Woman to Run a Sub-4-Minute Mile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/06/24/faith-kipyegon-4-minute-mile-run/)\n\n> On Thursday, June 26 in Paris, Faith Kipyegon will try to make history on the track.\n\n> In an Nike-supported event similar to those in which Eliud Kipchoge attempted to break the 2-hour marathon barrier, Kipyegon will try to become the first woman in history to run a sub-4-minute mile. The modified time trial will take place at the Stade Sébastien Charléty in Paris, the same track where she broke both the 1500-meter and 5,000-meter world records.\n\n> The 31-year-old Kenyan already owns three Olympic gold medals in 1500 meters and the [world record in the mile](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a44614392/kipyegon-mile-world-record-hiltz-american-record/)—she blitzed a 4:07.64 clocking two years ago in Monaco to obliterate the previous record by more than four and a half seconds—but now she’ll attempt the quest of dropping nearly 8 more seconds to break the 4-minute barrier.\n\nThe event can be viewed on Youtube [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZNHaUtLCnA)." } ] }
(Source](http://oil:%5Cn%5Cn(Source){kind=link}
