Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=320
{ "count": 5526, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=340", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=300", "results": [ { "id": 37112, "title": "Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?", "short_title": "US-Iran nuclear deal before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "US-Iran nuclear deal before Sep 2025?", "slug": "us-iran-nuclear-deal-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-22T11:00:34.178583Z", "published_at": "2025-05-09T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T06:07:35.135543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-09T09:51:37.576992Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-12T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 224, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T07:07:49.952688Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-20T07:07:49.952688Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36497, "title": "Will the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-22T11:00:34.178963Z", "open_time": "2025-05-12T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-15T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2015, Iran and the P5+1 group (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany) concluded the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA). Under the terms of the agreement, Iran committed to reducing its stockpile of enriched uranium, limiting its enrichment capacity, and permitting enhanced oversight by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency) (IAEA). In exchange, several nuclear-related sanctions were eased, providing Iran with economic relief.\n\nHowever, in 2018, the United States under President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, re-imposing harsh sanctions on Iran and effectively ending the agreement. In response, Iran began scaling back its compliance with the deal, resuming uranium enrichment and increasing its stockpile of nuclear material.\n\nIn April 2025, the United States and Iran [resumed indirect negotiations](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) aimed at reaching a new agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program. These talks mark the first significant diplomatic engagement between the two nations since the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018. The fourth round of talks [is planned](https://www.reuters.com/world/next-round-iran-us-nuclear-talks-likely-be-oman-weekend-2025-05-06/) to take place in May 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States and Iran sign an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear program after May 12 and before September 1, 2025.\n\nFor an agreement to qualify for this question it must meet the following criteria:\n\n1. Contains limits on Iran enriching or stockpiling nuclear materials.\n2. Allows monitoring or inspection by parties other than the Iranian Government, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency.", "fine_print": "Unilateral actions by either party will have no impact on this question, only a mutual agreement qualifies.\n\nPreliminary talks, frameworks, or informal understandings do not count. Only a formal, signed agreement qualifies. ", "post_id": 37112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752987952.911, "end_time": 1753068409.723, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752987952.911, "end_time": 1753068409.723, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.050735092613805606 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.361798316634757, 8.508152173035569, 1.7231899383694764, 1.7347521921595626, 2.212596926723685, 1.4351535771812671, 0.534854785194892, 0.07044920936446891, 0.9098002696744958, 0.0, 0.08735879242971188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2557881942060991, 0.036645556115346985, 0.034140948570089494, 0.10922682896557893, 0.0, 0.13739532011613093, 0.0, 0.07650168018741535, 0.0, 0.30943628715017657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012112351172278615, 0.0, 0.01034082290967558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017563493248750701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029775518992981465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07198474520841326, 5.453576536000945e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010953801287727689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011197121909668024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028276270357576735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48814202139041224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1977, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2015, Iran and the P5+1 group (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany) concluded the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA). Under the terms of the agreement, Iran committed to reducing its stockpile of enriched uranium, limiting its enrichment capacity, and permitting enhanced oversight by the [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency) (IAEA). In exchange, several nuclear-related sanctions were eased, providing Iran with economic relief.\n\nHowever, in 2018, the United States under President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, re-imposing harsh sanctions on Iran and effectively ending the agreement. In response, Iran began scaling back its compliance with the deal, resuming uranium enrichment and increasing its stockpile of nuclear material.\n\nIn April 2025, the United States and Iran [resumed indirect negotiations](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) aimed at reaching a new agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program. These talks mark the first significant diplomatic engagement between the two nations since the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018. The fourth round of talks [is planned](https://www.reuters.com/world/next-round-iran-us-nuclear-talks-likely-be-oman-weekend-2025-05-06/) to take place in May 2025." }, { "id": 37099, "title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "short_title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "url_title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "slug": "will-china-and-the-eu-reach-a-trade-or-tariff-agreement-in-2025", "author_id": 264628, "author_username": "dougiebuckets", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T13:39:59.345418Z", "published_at": "2025-04-18T14:27:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T10:54:57.523464Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-04-18T14:28:16.250997Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-19T14:27:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32519, "name": "Adjacent News", "type": "community", "slug": "adjacent", "description": "A forecasting Community for Adjacent News.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-10-18_at_1_MIZGvxD.53.13PM.png", "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 4, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 174133, "username": "lucaskohorst", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 36494, "title": "Will China and the EU Reach a Trade or Tariff Agreement in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T13:39:59.345859Z", "open_time": "2025-04-19T14:27:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-23T14:27:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2025, the prospect of a China-EU trade or tariff agreement is shaped by escalating global trade tensions, particularly driven by U.S. policies under President Donald Trump. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods reaching up to 145%, severely restricting China’s access to the American market. This has pushed [<u>China to pivot toward the European Union</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/macron-speaks-of-90-days-of-uncertainty-as-trump-tariffs-spark-further-losses), its second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at €739 billion in 2023, to offset economic losses. However, the EU faces its own challenges, including U.S. tariffs of 10% on general goods and 25% on steel, aluminum, and cars, prompting it to seek trade diversification.\n\nA key concern for both parties is trade diversion, where Chinese goods originally destined for the [<u>U.S. could flood the EU market</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/world/europe/europe-china-dumping-tariffs.html), threatening local industries. The EU has responded by establishing a task force to monitor import surges and is exploring safeguard measures to protect its markets. China, meanwhile, employs tariff arbitrage, redirecting exports to markets with lower barriers, such as Europe. This strategy is supported by a weakening Chinese yuan, which has fallen 10% against the euro and 14% against the Swedish krona in 2025, boosting Chinese export competitiveness. However, this risks a “[<u>deflationary tsunami</u>](https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinese-deflationary-tsunami-headed-europe)” in Europe, as cheaper Chinese goods could undercut local producers, creating a dilemma for EU policymakers wary of replicating U.S.-style protectionism after criticizing Trump’s trade disruptions.\n\nNegotiations between China and the EU are complex, focusing on tariffs, market access, and targeted agreements, such as [<u>minimum pricing for Chinese electric vehicles to replace EU tariffs imposed in 2024 (up to 45.3%)</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-china-start-talks-lifting-eu-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-handelsblatt-2025-04-10/). High-level engagements, including Chinese President Xi Jinping’s talks with EU leaders and a planned EU-China summit in July 2025, signal intent to stabilize trade relations. Yet, challenges persist: the EU’s €292 billion trade deficit with China, concerns over Chinese overcapacity, and geopolitical tensions (e.g., China’s ties with Russia) fuel mistrust. Additionally, any agreement requires [<u>consensus among EU member states</u>](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/eu-china-relations-after-the-2024-european-elections-a-timeline/), often divided on balancing economic benefits with strategic concerns. For instance, German carmakers push for cooperation due to their reliance on China, while others advocate for stronger defenses against Chinese imports.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve to \"Yes\" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the People's Republic of China and the European Union, according to[<u> credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The agreement must be a formal, binding arrangement (e.g., a signed trade deal, tariff adjustment agreement, or minimum pricing deal for specific goods like electric vehicles) that directly addresses trade flows, tariffs, or subsidies between the two parties. Non-binding memoranda of understanding, joint statements of intent, or agreements limited to non-trade issues (e.g., climate or cultural cooperation) do not qualify. If no such agreement is announced by the deadline, or if credible sources do not confirm an agreement, the question will resolve as 'No'.\" Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37099, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752585149.037897, "end_time": 1759834486.945, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752585149.037897, "end_time": 1759834486.945, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20372069991080147 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2025, the prospect of a China-EU trade or tariff agreement is shaped by escalating global trade tensions, particularly driven by U.S. policies under President Donald Trump. The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods reaching up to 145%, severely restricting China’s access to the American market. This has pushed [<u>China to pivot toward the European Union</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/macron-speaks-of-90-days-of-uncertainty-as-trump-tariffs-spark-further-losses), its second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at €739 billion in 2023, to offset economic losses. However, the EU faces its own challenges, including U.S. tariffs of 10% on general goods and 25% on steel, aluminum, and cars, prompting it to seek trade diversification.\n\nA key concern for both parties is trade diversion, where Chinese goods originally destined for the [<u>U.S. could flood the EU market</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/14/world/europe/europe-china-dumping-tariffs.html), threatening local industries. The EU has responded by establishing a task force to monitor import surges and is exploring safeguard measures to protect its markets. China, meanwhile, employs tariff arbitrage, redirecting exports to markets with lower barriers, such as Europe. This strategy is supported by a weakening Chinese yuan, which has fallen 10% against the euro and 14% against the Swedish krona in 2025, boosting Chinese export competitiveness. However, this risks a “[<u>deflationary tsunami</u>](https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinese-deflationary-tsunami-headed-europe)” in Europe, as cheaper Chinese goods could undercut local producers, creating a dilemma for EU policymakers wary of replicating U.S.-style protectionism after criticizing Trump’s trade disruptions.\n\nNegotiations between China and the EU are complex, focusing on tariffs, market access, and targeted agreements, such as [<u>minimum pricing for Chinese electric vehicles to replace EU tariffs imposed in 2024 (up to 45.3%)</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/eu-china-start-talks-lifting-eu-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-handelsblatt-2025-04-10/). High-level engagements, including Chinese President Xi Jinping’s talks with EU leaders and a planned EU-China summit in July 2025, signal intent to stabilize trade relations. Yet, challenges persist: the EU’s €292 billion trade deficit with China, concerns over Chinese overcapacity, and geopolitical tensions (e.g., China’s ties with Russia) fuel mistrust. Additionally, any agreement requires [<u>consensus among EU member states</u>](https://www.china-briefing.com/news/eu-china-relations-after-the-2024-european-elections-a-timeline/), often divided on balancing economic benefits with strategic concerns. For instance, German carmakers push for cooperation due to their reliance on China, while others advocate for stronger defenses against Chinese imports." }, { "id": 37052, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-africa-or-latin-america-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:42.166052Z", "published_at": "2025-04-25T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:16.153213Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36447, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:42.166052Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T12:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T12:47:04.472585Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America before July 1, 2025, according to credible media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority. \n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant resistance to their authority has ceased. \n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "post_id": 37052, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745558319.639671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745558319.639671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 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"relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9864661558469137, "spot_peer_score": 5.685793276169663, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 48.54623776053464, "peer_archived_score": 5.486576953694968, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.685793276169663, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 37051, "title": "Will Harvard University lose its tax exempt status before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-harvard-university-lose-its-tax-exempt-status-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:42.161428Z", "published_at": "2025-04-25T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:55.162869Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": 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"2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T11:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T11:12:15.470560Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-25T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York Times: [Trump Threatens Harvard’s Tax Status, Escalating Billion-Dollar Pressure Campaign](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/us/politics/trump-harvard-tax-status.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any time before July 1, 2025, Harvard loses its [501(c)(3) status](https://oc.finance.harvard.edu/faq/harvard-university-tax-exempt-organization).", "fine_print": "If there is no credible reporting that Harvard has lost its 501(c)(3) status with the Internal Revenue Service before July 1, 2025, this question resolves as No.", "post_id": 37051, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745552352.216123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06713054545454546 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745552352.216123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06713054545454546 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9328694545454546, 0.06713054545454546 ], "means": [ 0.08358052450836186 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5001102092303825, 1.1297630810075452, 0.06655370815568037, 0.0009563499045180881, 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81.9787572271413, "peer_archived_score": 5.846750854191904, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.722436033486579, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 89.97471100297594 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times: [Trump Threatens Harvard’s Tax Status, Escalating Billion-Dollar Pressure Campaign](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/us/politics/trump-harvard-tax-status.html)" }, { "id": 37050, "title": "Will any of these companies get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-of-these-companies-get-dropped-from-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:42.156674Z", "published_at": "2025-04-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:40:59.894191Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-25T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": 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false } }, "question": { "id": 36445, "title": "Will any of these companies get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:42.156674Z", "open_time": "2025-04-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-25T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-25T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T16:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T17:26:38.645756Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-25T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-25T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Oregon Business: [Intel Ousted From Dow Jones By Rival Nvidia](https://oregonbusiness.com/intel-ousted-from-dow-jones-by-rival-nvidia/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before July 1, 2025, there is any official announcement or confirmation (or credible source reporting) that any of the following companies will no longer be a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) either on the official announcement or that the company has been or will be removed from the index: Amazon.com Inc, American Express Co, Amgen Inc, Apple Inc, Boeing Co, Caterpillar Inc, Cisco Systems Inc, Chevron Corp, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Home Depot Inc, Honeywell International Inc, International Business Machines Corp, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola Co, JPMorgan Chase & Co, McDonald’s Corp, 3M Co, Merck & Co Inc, Microsoft Corp, Nike Inc, Procter & Gamble Co, Sherwin-Williams Co, Travelers Companies Inc, Unitedhealth Group Inc, Salesforce Inc, NVIDIA Corp, Verizon Communications Inc, Visa Inc, Walmart Inc, Walt Disney Co.", "fine_print": "Although removals from the index are generally effective immediately in order to forestall frontrunning, this is not a requirement for this question. All that is required is for there to be an announcement or confirmation before the resolution date about the removal from the DJIA at any point in time. 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"resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) the government of Zimbabwe after the launch of this question and before June 1, 2025 makes an additional payment to former farmers covered under the 2020 Global Compensation Deed.", "fine_print": "On April 9, 2025, Zimbabwe [was reported](https://nehandaradio.com/2025/04/09/zimbabwe-pays-us3-1m-to-former-white-farmers-as-part-of-land-compensation-deal/) to have made its first compensation payment, of USD $3.1 million. 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the May 2025 U of Mich Consumer Sentiment be > than it was for April 2025?", "slug": "will-the-may-2025-u-of-mich-consumer-sentiment-be-than-it-was-for-april-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:41.229015Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:52.084961Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 73, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": 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Less than or equal to that amount resolves the question as **No**.", "fine_print": "Preliminary results are sufficient to resolve the question. If there is any confusion about the number, Metaculus will resolve based on whatever number is posted at [this pdf](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/tbcics.pdf) that is labelled as May 2025, including preliminary. For example, on April 11, 2025 the number displayed was 50.8 for April 2025 (P).", "post_id": 37023, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745351305.417755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745351305.417755, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3299107496291719 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.400530700699965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13815210061415184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8833459156529938, 0.3249648018114994, 1.8245973343412736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5151457763180534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.8648809216442492, 0.0, 0.208753764822917, 0.3488997690348788, 0.0, 1.955780113362235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3743328230494786, 0.0, 0.7949127371976848, 0.0, 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"resolution_set_time": "2025-05-12T21:14:55.600613Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Ukraine is one step away from stagflation. And here's why](https://en.iz.ru/en/1868046/2025-04-10/ukraine-one-step-away-stagflation-and-heres-why)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Ukraine's government debt is greater than or equal to 1.90 billion UAH Thousand (in other words, 1.90 trillion Ukrainian hryvnia for the month of March 2025, according to the number presented by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/government-debt). 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Stapleton has 5 nominations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Chris Stapleton wins an award at the [60th Academy of Country Music Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/60th_Academy_of_Country_Music_Awards).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37019, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745321427.850919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745321427.850919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7767957119114385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004697335090360764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002996681779674101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08847061033139408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7026687561587782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30690560359573066, 0.0, 2.3098759495895886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5885226963260081, 0.8897204730725825, 2.419549420022425, 0.0, 0.9484619403905583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6402189560000633, 0.0, 0.5725020737927151, 0.5492799034882604, 0.0, 2.854455659604004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28570051944328617, 0.0, 0.11608931509631863, 0.07323387050617254, 0.6743195377416064, 0.0016681565683498104, 0.0, 0.09700195938329419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.700276474037516, "peer_score": 1.4674164301975703, "coverage": 0.9875929408272107, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9875929408272107, "spot_peer_score": -1.3901916464194672, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 61.700276474037516, "peer_archived_score": 1.4674164301975703, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.3901916464194672, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The awards are scheduled to be held on May 8, 2025. Stapleton has 5 nominations." }, { "id": 37018, "title": "Will Kelsea Ballerini win an award at the 60th Academy of Country Music Awards?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kelsea-ballerini-win-an-award-at-the-60th-academy-of-country-music-awards", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.982707Z", "published_at": "2025-04-22T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:36.106292Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36413, "title": "Will Kelsea Ballerini win an award at the 60th Academy of Country Music Awards?", "created_at": "2025-04-18T04:06:40.982707Z", "open_time": "2025-04-22T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T14:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T14:13:56.492635Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-04-22T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The awards are scheduled to be held on May 8, 2025. Ballerini has 3 nominations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Kelsea Ballerini wins an award at the [60th Academy of Country Music Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/60th_Academy_of_Country_Music_Awards).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37018, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745314220.635019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745314220.635019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.3919316911963686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3613315105385659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2991016446417691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1029927867117464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3004563071674322, 0.0, 0.3358380584080713, 0.7876430811287041, 0.0, 1.7200990833484706, 0.01223904243451124, 0.0, 1.104814932600922, 0.0, 1.433754662659498, 0.6682290751014637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.61443971782953, 0.8831866410185989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019184847683859318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4741317757842507, 0.0, 0.43822086120970344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03326916664747106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7258864312822346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 28.605145984878575, "peer_score": 1.3565048080933706, "coverage": 0.9856246127684911, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9856246127684911, "spot_peer_score": 3.0184770136801475, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "baseline_archived_score": 28.605145984878575, "peer_archived_score": 1.3565048080933706, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.0184770136801475, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The awards are scheduled to be held on May 8, 2025. Ballerini has 3 nominations." } ] }
