Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3200
{ "count": 6359, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3220", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3180", "results": [ { "id": 21139, "title": "Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?", "short_title": "The one hour genome", "url_title": "The one hour genome", "slug": "the-one-hour-genome", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-22T05:53:08.176894Z", "published_at": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T00:06:53.885759Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21139, "title": "Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?", "created_at": "2024-01-22T05:53:08.176894Z", "open_time": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-19T18:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-19T18:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Question is largely taken from these two questions about the [cost of a genome in 2031 in 2021 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11371/human-genome-sequencing-cost-in-2031/) ([alternatively](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12807/cost-of-sequencing-whole-human-genome/) ) and [labor productivity in 2032 in the US in 2017 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12916/us-gdp-per-hour-worked-productivity/). As of January 22, 2024, the former has a community prediction of $68.18 and the latter has a community median of $90.70, hence under those parameters, this question would likely resolve yes, as the latter figure uses more deflated dollars.\n\nQuestion is a binary that simply asks whether average labor productivity per hour in 2031 would be lower than the costs for sequencing a full human genome in 2031.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the cost of sequencing a single human genome is less than the value of 1 hour of labor productivity in the US according to the most recent information available on December 31, 2031.\n\nThe genome cost part of the question will be determined by information provided by the [US National Human Genome Research Institute](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data). If that is not available, then an alternative source will be used.\n\nUS labor productivity will be resolved using data from the [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-pennworldtable?tab=chart&country=~USA).\n\nThe resolution will be based on the nominal values on the resolution date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21139, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762733203.069931, "end_time": 1765188734.959776, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762733203.069931, "end_time": 1765188734.959776, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7640337678343752 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 1.6537484749236215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16200818773240888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.206986644946858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287773.902595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287773.902595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.33241556760512936, 0.6675844323948706 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Question is largely taken from these two questions about the [cost of a genome in 2031 in 2021 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11371/human-genome-sequencing-cost-in-2031/) ([alternatively](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12807/cost-of-sequencing-whole-human-genome/) ) and [labor productivity in 2032 in the US in 2017 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12916/us-gdp-per-hour-worked-productivity/). As of January 22, 2024, the former has a community prediction of $68.18 and the latter has a community median of $90.70, hence under those parameters, this question would likely resolve yes, as the latter figure uses more deflated dollars.\n\nQuestion is a binary that simply asks whether average labor productivity per hour in 2031 would be lower than the costs for sequencing a full human genome in 2031." }, { "id": 21138, "title": "Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?", "short_title": "Somaliland Recognition by Ethiopia in 2024", "url_title": "Somaliland Recognition by Ethiopia in 2024", "slug": "somaliland-recognition-by-ethiopia-in-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-22T02:44:38.909109Z", "published_at": "2024-01-23T17:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.040313Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-23T17:57:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T22:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-23T17:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21138, "title": "Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-22T02:44:38.909109Z", "open_time": "2024-01-23T17:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-26T17:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-26T17:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T22:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T22:12:14.747255Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.\n\nEthiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an \"existential question\". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.\n\nEthiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if in 2024 Ethiopia formally recognises the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state, as reported either by credible sources or directly by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.", "fine_print": "International law is clear (custom, codified in the 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States): state recognition is an irrevocable act. Therefore, this question will resolve **Yes** even if Ethiopia decides to withdraw the recognition at a later timepoint.", "post_id": 21138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735623757.895203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735623757.895203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06997732098101504 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0065308105668356, 1.7334835713503243, 0.0, 1.3170803026450875, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 1.1160614035769407, 0.7479402277203934, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09550609340386881, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 52.543389401075345, "peer_score": 5.943650935632973, "coverage": 0.9998954760347415, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998954760347415, "spot_peer_score": 18.41445193009899, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756145, "baseline_archived_score": 52.543389401075345, "peer_archived_score": 5.943650935632973, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.41445193009899, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756145 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287186.211903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287186.211903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8985906036132713, 0.10140939638672876 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.\n\nEthiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an \"existential question\". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.\n\nEthiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal." }, { "id": 21137, "title": "Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?", "short_title": "Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland casualties", "url_title": "Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland casualties", "slug": "ethiopia-somalia-somaliland-casualties", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-22T01:50:02.915706Z", "published_at": "2024-02-28T22:35:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.324840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-28T22:35:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T22:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-28T22:35:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21137, "title": "Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-22T01:50:02.915706Z", "open_time": "2024-02-28T22:35:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-02T22:35:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-02T22:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T22:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T22:14:46.505582Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.\n\nEthiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an \"existential question\". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.\n\nEthiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been at least 200 deaths among the overtly flagged members of the militaries of Ethiopia, Somalia, or Somaliland caused by confrontation with the overtly flagged military of any of the other states.", "fine_print": "- Armed forces under government control will qualify, but rebel groups and groups supported by the government financially or otherwise will not.\n- Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths and casualties among members of the armed forces of any of the militaries occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.\n- If a range is provided by a source, the [mid-range](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-range) must be equal to the threshold. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.", "post_id": 21137, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735312217.564029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735312217.564029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.028354753241949006 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.061677808385143, 0.39604892130950153, 0.0, 0.5380474745637874, 0.6617223584560195, 0.07222045505988617, 0.0, 0.4458609743834946, 0.2890685540519878, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2853327939587583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 90.6809562768878, "peer_score": 7.4118666662600186, "coverage": 0.999935046489181, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999935046489181, "spot_peer_score": 14.734234761621178, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 90.6809562768878, "peer_archived_score": 7.4118666662600186, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.734234761621178, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288853.762365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288853.762365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.972172557789744, 0.027827442210256056 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.\n\nEthiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an \"existential question\". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.\n\nEthiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal." }, { "id": 21126, "title": "Railguns used in warfare before 2035?", "short_title": "Railguns in war by 2035?", "url_title": "Railguns in war by 2035?", "slug": "railguns-in-war-by-2035", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-20T09:59:18.450655Z", "published_at": "2024-04-13T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T22:05:34.372045Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-13T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-13T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21126, "title": "Railguns used in warfare before 2035?", "created_at": "2024-01-20T09:59:18.450655Z", "open_time": "2024-04-13T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-16T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-16T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Railguns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railgun) can be thought of as extremely powerful cannons with electrical instead of chemical propulsion. Electromagnetic launch by railgun can accelerate massive projectiles to very high velocities. Militaries have expressed interest in railgun technology and have [deployed prototypes for testing](https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/10/japan-performs-first-ever-railgun-test-from-ship-at-sea/). Essentially, deployment of railguns would fundamentally change the way cannons have worked for centuries, giving more practical range and destructive potential per shot. Moving from chemically powered artillery to railguns would also shift the logistical and industrial needs associated with military firepower, which could have broader economic consequences.\n\nThe technical definition of a railgun is a linear motor where the projectile and/or something attached to the projectile is the armature which shorts two parallel rails, with the current flowing through one rail, across the armature and through the other rail creating Lorentz forces which accelerate the projectile along the rails.\n\nIf railguns become feasible, two additional potential advantages it offers a military is that it greatly reduces the cost of projectiles, as well as increased safety for its troops due to the lack of explosive propellant. ([Source](https://www.electropages.com/blog/2020/01/four-things-know-about-railguns))\n\nSee also: \n\n- Interesting Engineering: [China claims breakthrough in electromagnetic rail gun](https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-claims-breakthrough-in-electromagnetic-rail-gun)\n\n- ExecutiveGov: [The Ultimate Guide to Rail Gun: Technology, Applications, and Advancements](https://executivegov.com/articles/the-ultimate-guide-to-rail-gun-technology-applications-and-advancements/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"Yes\" if 2 [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report the deployment and operational use of a railgun in an active military conflict by the military of any country before January 1, 2035.", "fine_print": "The outcome or effectiveness of the railgun’s usage is immaterial for purposes of resolving this question.", "post_id": 21126, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762207523.613503, "end_time": 1771538039.172871, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.541 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762207523.613503, "end_time": 1771538039.172871, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.541 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.44580235723294165 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8608344071868222, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6976927563250288, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287672.025225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287672.025225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6548022510503262, 0.34519774894967376 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Railguns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railgun) can be thought of as extremely powerful cannons with electrical instead of chemical propulsion. Electromagnetic launch by railgun can accelerate massive projectiles to very high velocities. Militaries have expressed interest in railgun technology and have [deployed prototypes for testing](https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/10/japan-performs-first-ever-railgun-test-from-ship-at-sea/). Essentially, deployment of railguns would fundamentally change the way cannons have worked for centuries, giving more practical range and destructive potential per shot. Moving from chemically powered artillery to railguns would also shift the logistical and industrial needs associated with military firepower, which could have broader economic consequences.\n\nThe technical definition of a railgun is a linear motor where the projectile and/or something attached to the projectile is the armature which shorts two parallel rails, with the current flowing through one rail, across the armature and through the other rail creating Lorentz forces which accelerate the projectile along the rails.\n\nIf railguns become feasible, two additional potential advantages it offers a military is that it greatly reduces the cost of projectiles, as well as increased safety for its troops due to the lack of explosive propellant. ([Source](https://www.electropages.com/blog/2020/01/four-things-know-about-railguns))\n\nSee also: \n\n- Interesting Engineering: [China claims breakthrough in electromagnetic rail gun](https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-claims-breakthrough-in-electromagnetic-rail-gun)\n\n- ExecutiveGov: [The Ultimate Guide to Rail Gun: Technology, Applications, and Advancements](https://executivegov.com/articles/the-ultimate-guide-to-rail-gun-technology-applications-and-advancements/)" }, { "id": 21120, "title": "Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?", "short_title": "Fani Willis Cease To Prosecute Trump", "url_title": "Fani Willis Cease To Prosecute Trump", "slug": "fani-willis-cease-to-prosecute-trump", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-19T00:34:21.287022Z", "published_at": "2024-01-23T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.737403Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-23T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 189, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-23T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 167, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21120, "title": "Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?", "created_at": "2024-01-19T00:34:21.287022Z", "open_time": "2024-01-23T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-26T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Fani Willis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fani_Willis), the Fulton County District Attorney, has been at the forefront of a significant legal inquiry into former President Donald Trump's conduct in Georgia in the [immediate aftermath of the 2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Georgia_election_investigation). \n\nWillis has encountered [new controversy](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/defendant-trumps-georgia-case-accuses-da-prosecutor-improper-relationship-2024-01-09/) concerning her association with attorney Nathan Wade, whom she hired as a special prosecutor on the case. The relationship between Willis and Wade has been the subject of intense scrutiny due to allegations of an improper relationship between the two. \n\nMost recently, counsel for Michael Roman, a co-defendant in the Trump case, filed a [motion to disqualify](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24352568-roman-motion-to-dimiss-010824) both Willis and Wade, claiming they concealed a romantic relationship and enjoyed vacations together funded by taxpayer money. The motion, set for deliberation at a [February 15 hearing]( https://news.yahoo.com/georgia-judge-calls-hearing-fani-183618076.html) asks the court to disqualify Willis, Wade, and the Fulton County DA’s office from prosecuting the case.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, prior to April 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Fani Willis no longer acts as attorney for the prosecution in The State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. (Case No. 23SC188947).\n\nThe mechanism by which Willis ceases to be attorney for the prosecution (e.g. a voluntary withdrawal or a disqualification by the court) does not matter, so long as credible sources report that Willis no longer acts as attorney for the prosecution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21120, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711893211.758002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711893211.758002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.044527704404752844 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.157983222823464, 10.705460903119056, 0.40522645196146384, 0.3451155827534088, 0.39302035448116757, 0.8562601664014954, 0.0, 0.6960184824069715, 0.1674083473189594, 0.04863785962520711, 0.005860822524481891, 4.9041288936054526e-05, 0.6104171031057308, 0.0, 0.009310274235753044, 0.012539843323394858, 0.0, 0.01652180896457576, 0.0, 0.012059483612763041, 0.0789754687101604, 0.0011272670367846742, 0.00019086407360581327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009154529733278871, 0.0, 0.005291242225453894, 0.0013626926281197823, 0.0, 0.009714513885166158, 0.0, 0.001070011959977349, 0.0013077077507505416, 0.0, 0.7052246217897699, 0.0, 0.0017200370305171628, 0.004059686617220235, 1.3800618116531336e-05, 0.9990728667855694, 0.0012584808186771681, 0.016721045941167238, 0.002153807656502686, 0.0, 0.006825239096795841, 0.002492062113904876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006989063975177014, 0.007724460892062269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01769180809541363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013733831928901057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016991584103968405, 2.827992863265363e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028747770043234962, 0.0, 0.004956403621968732, 0.001474076265742063, 6.772471817195793e-05, 0.00015134932652720963, 6.730855628174284e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007780322927941418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018555049631988577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2844960641040047e-05, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.467079177838123, "coverage": 0.9999434489427885, "baseline_score": 48.89790258539717, "spot_peer_score": 4.591314063424992, "peer_archived_score": 17.467079177838123, "baseline_archived_score": 48.89790258539717, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.591314063424992 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711893211.811875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711893211.811875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1362, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Fani Willis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fani_Willis), the Fulton County District Attorney, has been at the forefront of a significant legal inquiry into former President Donald Trump's conduct in Georgia in the [immediate aftermath of the 2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Georgia_election_investigation). \n\nWillis has encountered [new controversy](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/defendant-trumps-georgia-case-accuses-da-prosecutor-improper-relationship-2024-01-09/) concerning her association with attorney Nathan Wade, whom she hired as a special prosecutor on the case. The relationship between Willis and Wade has been the subject of intense scrutiny due to allegations of an improper relationship between the two. \n\nMost recently, counsel for Michael Roman, a co-defendant in the Trump case, filed a [motion to disqualify](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24352568-roman-motion-to-dimiss-010824) both Willis and Wade, claiming they concealed a romantic relationship and enjoyed vacations together funded by taxpayer money. The motion, set for deliberation at a [February 15 hearing]( https://news.yahoo.com/georgia-judge-calls-hearing-fani-183618076.html) asks the court to disqualify Willis, Wade, and the Fulton County DA’s office from prosecuting the case." }, { "id": 21114, "title": "Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?", "short_title": "ChatGPT back in China by 2026", "url_title": "ChatGPT back in China by 2026", "slug": "chatgpt-back-in-china-by-2026", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-18T10:33:17.818715Z", "published_at": "2024-01-30T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T19:13:44.585916Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-30T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-30T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21114, "title": "Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-01-18T10:33:17.818715Z", "open_time": "2024-01-30T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-02T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-02T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> As of April 2023, ChatGPT is blocked by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. In addition, ChatGPT geofences itself to avoid doing business in China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT#Basic_service)\n\nIn a [January 2024 interview](https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/sam-altman-davos-ai-future-interview), Sam Altman talked about customizing ChatGPT to different countries:\n\n> Altman believes future AI products will need to allow \"quite a lot of individual customization\" and \"that's going to make a lot of people uncomfortable,\" because AI will give different answers for different users, based on their values preferences and possibly on what country they reside in.\n\n> \"If the country said, you know, all gay people should be killed on sight, then no ... that is well out of bounds,\" Altman tells Axios. \"But there are probably other things that I don't personally agree with, but a different culture might. ... We have to be somewhat uncomfortable as a tool builder with some of the uses of our tools.\"\n\n> Asked if future versions of OpenAI products might answer a question differently in different countries based on that country's values, Altman said, \"It'll be different for users with different values. The countries issue I think, is somewhat less important.\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes based on credible reports that ChatGPT is available to users in China.", "fine_print": "* This will also resolve positively if only the API version is available. \n* If ChatGPT is not the model from OpenAI offered in China, a language-based AI product offered by OpenAI that is deemed a successor or very similar in its function to the ChatGPT product from late 2023 is also sufficient for the question to resolve Yes.\n* If it becomes available between now and the resolution date and then gets banned again, or taken from the market by OpenAI, this question would also resolve positively.", "post_id": 21114, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762199805.347307, "end_time": 1763955047.84, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.018 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762199805.347307, "end_time": 1763955047.84, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.018 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01733626918151482 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.197315236795607, 3.102928942759781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1313895930683709, 0.721293780250069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289041.933639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289041.933639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.98778293685233, 0.012217063147669979 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 148, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> As of April 2023, ChatGPT is blocked by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. In addition, ChatGPT geofences itself to avoid doing business in China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT#Basic_service)\n\nIn a [January 2024 interview](https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/sam-altman-davos-ai-future-interview), Sam Altman talked about customizing ChatGPT to different countries:\n\n> Altman believes future AI products will need to allow \"quite a lot of individual customization\" and \"that's going to make a lot of people uncomfortable,\" because AI will give different answers for different users, based on their values preferences and possibly on what country they reside in.\n\n> \"If the country said, you know, all gay people should be killed on sight, then no ... that is well out of bounds,\" Altman tells Axios. \"But there are probably other things that I don't personally agree with, but a different culture might. ... We have to be somewhat uncomfortable as a tool builder with some of the uses of our tools.\"\n\n> Asked if future versions of OpenAI products might answer a question differently in different countries based on that country's values, Altman said, \"It'll be different for users with different values. The countries issue I think, is somewhat less important.\"" }, { "id": 21109, "title": "Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?", "short_title": "Donald Trump Wins 2024 New Hampshire Primary?", "url_title": "Donald Trump Wins 2024 New Hampshire Primary?", "slug": "donald-trump-wins-2024-new-hampshire-primary", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-17T16:15:09.536498Z", "published_at": "2024-01-17T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.537662Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-17T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T16:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 165, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21109, "title": "Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?", "created_at": "2024-01-17T16:15:09.536498Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-18T10:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-18T10:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T16:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-26T16:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-23T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-23T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump won the most delegates in the Iowa caucus on January 15th, 2024, receiving [20 of the 40 available](https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/). Ron DeSantis came in second with nine delegates and Nikki Haley came in [third place](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21005/nikki-haley-2nd-in-the-iowa-caucuses/) winning eight delegates.\n\nThe New Hampshire primary is scheduled to be held on January 23, 2024, and [polling](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/) indicates a closer race than that of [Iowa](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/). As of January 17, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump at 43.5% in New Hampshire, followed by Nikki Haley at 30.5%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump wins the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary, according to reports from credible sources.", "fine_print": "* Winning the most delegates will be considered to be winning more than other candidates, and in the event Donald Trump ties for the most delegates this question will resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 21109, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706024327.754915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706024327.754915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9684853940547609 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018070550457459766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02022247501321974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016294025582159138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9617659974500482, 1.491442382829218e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025220927096469854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5577611613174602, 0.007865787827795475, 0.0, 0.0, 7.172670065044927e-06, 0.06803835567264989, 0.0, 0.000897200773152788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00616310222697025, 0.6788121739680018, 0.01675260956746568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7646677732459555, 1.1175314300285244, 0.42764184823151496, 1.4356835749803962, 18.086432131993398 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.368167992949562, "coverage": 0.9993886516252026, "baseline_score": 94.0532572292228, "spot_peer_score": 11.58402116461471, "peer_archived_score": 6.368167992949562, "baseline_archived_score": 94.0532572292228, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.58402116461471 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706024327.798744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706024327.798744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03435056984224005, 0.96564943015776 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 395, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump won the most delegates in the Iowa caucus on January 15th, 2024, receiving [20 of the 40 available](https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/). Ron DeSantis came in second with nine delegates and Nikki Haley came in [third place](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21005/nikki-haley-2nd-in-the-iowa-caucuses/) winning eight delegates.\n\nThe New Hampshire primary is scheduled to be held on January 23, 2024, and [polling](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/) indicates a closer race than that of [Iowa](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/). As of January 17, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump at 43.5% in New Hampshire, followed by Nikki Haley at 30.5%." }, { "id": 21108, "title": "Will Brazil reach zero primary forest loss before 2030?", "short_title": "Brazil zero primary forest loss before 2030", "url_title": "Brazil zero primary forest loss before 2030", "slug": "brazil-zero-primary-forest-loss-before-2030", "author_id": 131932, "author_username": "freelancejosh93", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111743, "username": "NathanpmYoung" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-17T15:33:56.841254Z", "published_at": "2024-04-22T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T00:33:54.738071Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-22T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-22T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21108, "title": "Will Brazil reach zero primary forest loss before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-01-17T15:33:56.841254Z", "open_time": "2024-04-22T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-25T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-25T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Primary forests, which are crucial for storing carbon and harboring biodiversity, are irreplaceable. Loss of these forests leads to long-term ecological changes, as secondary forests regrown in their place do not attain the same levels of carbon storage or biodiversity for many decades, if ever. Please use [this link](https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/primary-forest-loss#:~:text=Any%20loss%20of%20primary%20forest,for%20several%20decades%20or%20longer.) to find out more information about the importance of primary forests.\n\nThe Amazon is home to vast biodiversity and indigenous populations and is vital in the global fight against climate change.\n\nIn 2023, deforestation in Brazil's Amazon decreased by nearly 50% from the previous year, the lowest rate in five years, with 5,153 sq km cleared. This reduction, still six times larger than New York City, reflects President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's commitment to combat deforestation. Increased inspections by Ibama contributed significantly to this decline.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will immediately resolve to **Yes** if Brazil is reported by Global Forest Watch (GFW) through its Brazil Deforestation Rates & Statistics dashboard (accessible at [this link](https://www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/country/BRA/) ) to have reached zero primary forest loss at any point before the end of 2030. If GFW does not confirm that Brazil has reached zero primary forest loss before the end of 2030, the market will resolve to **No**.\n\nIf GFW ceases to exist prior to the end of this market, other reputable climate news organisations or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) will be relied upon at Metaculus' discretion.", "fine_print": "\"Primary Forest Loss\" refers to the measure reported by Global Forest Watch.\n\nPrimary forests are defined as mature, natural, humid tropical forests that haven't been fully cleared and regrown recently. Researchers use Landsat images to map these forests regionally with specific algorithms.\n\n\"Loss\" of tree cover refers to tree removal or death from causes like harvesting, fire, disease, or storms, but it does not necessarily mean deforestation.\n\nIt will be considered to be \"Zero Primary Forest Loss\" if the measure of \"extent of primary forest remaining\" is the same one year as it was the previous year. For example, if in 2028 the figure is 89.1% and in 2029 it is 89.1%, the question will resolve to Yes even if there was a marginal amount of absolute primary forest loss.", "post_id": 21108, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762821224.306704, "end_time": 1766939338.048386, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762821224.306704, "end_time": 1766939338.048386, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10518125258479 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.6757411580961419, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.9314153526083463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288736.045726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288736.045726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.96996661394261, 0.030033386057389994 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Primary forests, which are crucial for storing carbon and harboring biodiversity, are irreplaceable. Loss of these forests leads to long-term ecological changes, as secondary forests regrown in their place do not attain the same levels of carbon storage or biodiversity for many decades, if ever. Please use [this link](https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/primary-forest-loss#:~:text=Any%20loss%20of%20primary%20forest,for%20several%20decades%20or%20longer.) to find out more information about the importance of primary forests.\n\nThe Amazon is home to vast biodiversity and indigenous populations and is vital in the global fight against climate change.\n\nIn 2023, deforestation in Brazil's Amazon decreased by nearly 50% from the previous year, the lowest rate in five years, with 5,153 sq km cleared. This reduction, still six times larger than New York City, reflects President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's commitment to combat deforestation. Increased inspections by Ibama contributed significantly to this decline." }, { "id": 21093, "title": "Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?", "short_title": "New team wins Super Bowl in 2024?", "url_title": "New team wins Super Bowl in 2024?", "slug": "new-team-wins-super-bowl-in-2024", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-16T22:04:35.055268Z", "published_at": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.911801Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-29T04:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-11T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-11T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-29T04:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21093, "title": "Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-16T22:04:35.055268Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-23T03:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-23T03:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-11T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-29T04:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-29T04:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-11T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-29T04:35:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[12 teams](https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-teams-never-won-super-bowl-list-2024) have never won a Super Bowl. Three of them are still in contention to win Super Bowl 58:\n\n- Buffalo Bills\n- Detroit Lions\n- Houston Texans\n\nIn the [divisional round](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39307439/nfl-playoffs-bracket-reset-divisional-round-schedule-afc-nfc), the Lions host the Buccaneers, Texans travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens, and the Bills host the Chiefs.\n\nHere's the [full bracket](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10105200-nfl-playoff-bracket-2024-updated-picture-schedule-after-super-wild-card).\n\n<img src=\"https://media.bleacherreport.com/image/upload/w_800,h_533,c_fill/v1705427867/a8hrzw0bvct9dijiircg.jpg\" alt=\"Description of the image\" />", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, or Houston Texans win [Super Bowl 58](https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl/event-info/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21093, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706535898.907496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706535898.907496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.024453174628882548 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.369364443596627, 4.085453440126638, 0.008225835367758692, 0.17007896549022494, 0.23623934583110234, 0.29750209797401905, 0.12458637695839893, 0.1246260927021633, 0.001185942719911764, 0.15171345935969954, 0.3897937078306163, 0.0, 0.13642204494929452, 0.0, 0.02020217564057056, 0.18497565815949563, 0.16940609254472613, 0.0, 0.010950938381210888, 0.05910574656195625, 0.18285899493482236, 0.0007075207321053673, 0.06341426086404857, 0.009971818499667707, 0.0, 0.15634531788016276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004394686938744043, 0.0, 0.30675771358978204, 0.0, 0.005377545383645285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002995338572454472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006734474812209602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023871239004235455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.243836287539353, "coverage": 0.45909663949510515, "baseline_score": 34.95220226477233, "spot_peer_score": 7.748515147245001, "peer_archived_score": 2.243836287539353, "baseline_archived_score": 34.95220226477233, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.748515147245001 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706498626.103632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706498626.103632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 230, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[12 teams](https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-teams-never-won-super-bowl-list-2024) have never won a Super Bowl. Three of them are still in contention to win Super Bowl 58:\n\n- Buffalo Bills\n- Detroit Lions\n- Houston Texans\n\nIn the [divisional round](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39307439/nfl-playoffs-bracket-reset-divisional-round-schedule-afc-nfc), the Lions host the Buccaneers, Texans travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens, and the Bills host the Chiefs.\n\nHere's the [full bracket](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10105200-nfl-playoff-bracket-2024-updated-picture-schedule-after-super-wild-card).\n\n<img src=\"https://media.bleacherreport.com/image/upload/w_800,h_533,c_fill/v1705427867/a8hrzw0bvct9dijiircg.jpg\" alt=\"Description of the image\" />" }, { "id": 21081, "title": "Will the \"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office be greater than that of \"Dune (2021)\"?", "short_title": "\"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office", "url_title": "\"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office", "slug": "dune-part-two-domestic-opening-box-office", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-15T18:58:10.948516Z", "published_at": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.930595Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-05T21:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-05T21:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 182, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21081, "title": "Will the \"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office be greater than that of \"Dune (2021)\"?", "created_at": "2024-01-15T18:58:10.948516Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-22T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-05T21:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-05T21:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-05T21:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Dune: Part Two](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune:_Part_Two) is an upcoming epic science fiction film directed by Denis Villeneuve. It is the second movie of a two-part adaptation of the 1965 novel Dune by Frank Herbert. \n\nThe first part, named [Dune](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(2021_film)) was released in 2021 and earned $41,011,174 on its opening weekend according to the analytics site [Boxofficemojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3162015233/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs).\n\nThe second part is scheduled to be released on March 1, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office weekend opening of **Dune: Part Two** as reported by its [page on Boxofficemojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/) is greater than $41,011,174, the opening of the **Dune (2021)**. If the reported value is less than or equal to $41,011,174 the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThe box office value will be checked at least 10 days after the movie's release date to allow the actual data to be collected. Metaculus admins can further delay the question resolution date if there are reasons to believe that the value might significantly change and affect the resolution.", "fine_print": "If the release date is moved to March 20, 2024 or later, the question will be **Annulled**.\n\nNote that the box office of **Dune (2021)** is reported without adjustments for inflation. \n\nThe changes in box office of **Dune (2021)** will not affect the resolution criteria of this question. The value $41,011,174 will be used as basis for comparison.", "post_id": 21081, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709233004.806217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 182, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709233004.806217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 182, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9524428042592874 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001679696616327609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2946700554313344e-05, 0.0002748637765294261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.55483610370966e-05, 0.0, 2.3410862392893172e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004323933218520223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6026806675542162e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007631622125807569, 0.0, 0.0, 5.09234879615925e-05, 0.0, 0.6148043637388716, 2.779268883974546e-05, 0.008158134591257133, 0.0001563761488972975, 9.629473860520273e-05, 1.5972342369668666, 0.011850888621047304, 0.013965111352408131, 0.0009028114188642056, 0.015555227703367843, 0.7194447894672356, 3.761331416033997e-06, 0.00039608437004265374, 0.005989494502267686, 0.00018562944962224415, 0.04948361424069275, 0.0, 0.010628037800199048, 0.011212370926537516, 0.02148125996573138, 0.14344159627759623, 0.007982660513625475, 0.11849069180849063, 0.0004714084376997052, 0.00215004106960638, 0.01662080421867846, 0.0, 0.10165101445376695, 0.005276320432449893, 0.0906997156594306, 1.0095970945337152, 0.4469377037132555, 0.2035295334083263, 2.037737610868248, 18.216585613027963 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.54187314965576, "coverage": 0.9999774905298757, "baseline_score": 81.41223623613723, "spot_peer_score": 13.21586299563398, "peer_archived_score": 18.54187314965576, "baseline_archived_score": 81.41223623613723, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.21586299563398 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709233004.853829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 182, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709233004.853829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 182, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.011610846004930342, 0.9883891539950697 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 605, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Dune: Part Two](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune:_Part_Two) is an upcoming epic science fiction film directed by Denis Villeneuve. It is the second movie of a two-part adaptation of the 1965 novel Dune by Frank Herbert. \n\nThe first part, named [Dune](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(2021_film)) was released in 2021 and earned $41,011,174 on its opening weekend according to the analytics site [Boxofficemojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3162015233/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs).\n\nThe second part is scheduled to be released on March 1, 2024." }, { "id": 21050, "title": "Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ?", "short_title": "2024 Kingswood by-election winner", "url_title": "2024 Kingswood by-election winner", "slug": "2024-kingswood-by-election-winner", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 114017, "username": "Kaleem" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-12T15:58:12.031325Z", "published_at": "2024-01-13T16:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.419549Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-13T16:16:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-16T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-16T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-13T16:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21050, "title": "Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ?", "created_at": "2024-01-12T15:58:12.031325Z", "open_time": "2024-01-13T16:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-16T16:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-16T16:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-16T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-16T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A by-election is expected to take place on 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Kingswood. This follows a [decision](https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/kingswood-election-everything-you-need-9020898) by its MP, Chris Skidmore, to stand down from Parliament. Skidmore, who represents the Conservative Party, resigned in protest at the UK government's decision to issue more oil and gas licences, and ahead of a Parliamentary vote on the matter. Skidmore announced his resignation on 5 January and it was effected three days later. [Full information can be found on the by-election wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Kingswood_by-election)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible sources report that the candidate representing the Conservative Party has won the [by-election in the UK Parliament constituency of Kingswood](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Kingswood_by-election), currently scheduled for Thursday 15 February 2024. In the case of uncertainty or disputed reporting, an official UK parliamentary or governmental statement of the result will be used to settle the resolution.", "fine_print": "If no by-election is held by the end of February 2024, the question is annulled.", "post_id": 21050, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708051382.67882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708051382.67882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.32461596539193244 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1122128468034793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -5.2958401961691495, "coverage": 0.978293196146443, "baseline_score": 1.5428305929673582, "spot_peer_score": 2.4190230944945124, "peer_archived_score": -5.2958401961691495, "baseline_archived_score": 1.5428305929673582, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.4190230944945124 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708051382.712196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708051382.712196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7902820393229589, 0.2097179606770411 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A by-election is expected to take place on 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Kingswood. This follows a [decision](https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/kingswood-election-everything-you-need-9020898) by its MP, Chris Skidmore, to stand down from Parliament. Skidmore, who represents the Conservative Party, resigned in protest at the UK government's decision to issue more oil and gas licences, and ahead of a Parliamentary vote on the matter. Skidmore announced his resignation on 5 January and it was effected three days later. [Full information can be found on the by-election wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Kingswood_by-election)" }, { "id": 21049, "title": "Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ?", "short_title": "2024 Wellingborough by-election winner", "url_title": "2024 Wellingborough by-election winner", "slug": "2024-wellingborough-by-election-winner", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-12T15:22:05.549618Z", "published_at": "2024-01-13T16:13:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.181521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-13T16:13:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-13T16:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21049, "title": "Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ?", "created_at": "2024-01-12T15:22:05.549618Z", "open_time": "2024-01-13T16:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-16T16:13:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-16T16:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-15T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A by-election will take place on Thursday 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough following a recall petition held in late 2023 that removed the incumbent MP Peter Bone under the terms of the Recall of MPs Act 2015, triggered by his six-week suspension from the House of Commons. [Full information can be found on the by-election wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Wellingborough_by-election)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible sources report that the candidate representing the Conservative Party has won the [by-election in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-67759402), currently scheduled for Thursday 15 February 2024. In the case of uncertainty or disputed reporting, an official UK parliamentary or governmental statement of the result will be used to settle the resolution.", "fine_print": "If no by-election is held by the end of February 2024, the question is annulled.", "post_id": 21049, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708025876.726984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708025876.726984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.23087353680548345 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8358439363280007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.211151533516322, "coverage": 0.998929019998152, "baseline_score": 38.803036259955675, "spot_peer_score": 6.643537616678458, "peer_archived_score": 3.211151533516322, "baseline_archived_score": 38.803036259955675, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.643537616678458 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708025876.761196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708025876.761196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9335361870136022, 0.0664638129863978 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A by-election will take place on Thursday 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough following a recall petition held in late 2023 that removed the incumbent MP Peter Bone under the terms of the Recall of MPs Act 2015, triggered by his six-week suspension from the House of Commons. [Full information can be found on the by-election wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Wellingborough_by-election)" }, { "id": 21005, "title": "Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?", "short_title": "Nikki Haley 2nd in the Iowa Caucuses?", "url_title": "Nikki Haley 2nd in the Iowa Caucuses?", "slug": "nikki-haley-2nd-in-the-iowa-caucuses", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-10T15:59:56.144889Z", "published_at": "2024-01-10T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.686567Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-10T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-15T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-15T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-16T17:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-16T17:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-10T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 119, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21005, "title": "Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?", "created_at": "2024-01-10T15:59:56.144889Z", "open_time": "2024-01-10T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-11T09:42:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-11T09:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-16T17:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-16T17:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-16T17:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-15T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-15T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4395716-haley-looks-to-defy-expectations-in-iowa/).\n\n> Nikki Haley is looking to outperform expectations in the Iowa caucuses next week in hopes of solidifying her status as the top challenger to former President Trump in the Republican presidential primary. \n\nPolling shows [Trump leading in Iowa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses#Polling), with a tight race for second between Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if Nikki Haley wins the second-most [bound delegates](https://apnews.com/article/how-iowa-caucus-works-2024-democrats-republicans-592ab40b9b9b948c0540f2cf132bab5c) in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses, according to credible reports.", "fine_print": "In the event Haley ties for the second-most bound delegates, the question resolves **Yes**.", "post_id": 21005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1705344772.8514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1705344772.8514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6675806632602549 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7220168009275107, 0.000673406876840072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.756868084293452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32335581421320847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011047093942862699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002454744419980374, 0.8358781412959931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14023436719578544, 0.0, 0.030424300615435034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12531167459100792, 0.07969906520653339, 0.20570070365489407, 0.0, 0.015104548569334835, 1.0291592821767566, 0.0, 1.0461208683766543, 0.15672243672974306, 0.01884733874070812, 0.0, 0.2679247643259863, 1.5994308974111124, 0.0, 0.003634769822694603, 0.2971992767157841, 0.034774264927130684, 0.0822593665142687, 0.5737309310164114, 0.051393087477555145, 0.00021193681464310558, 0.5933772365368363, 0.15692538181328153, 0.14157870120236998, 1.0093377275581161, 1.3349153575822883, 0.0, 2.4429733656341224, 0.0, 4.973945310938377e-05, 1.4320151160979677, 0.0, 1.8173271773748416, 0.0, 0.23297931773686179, 0.0, 0.06565382983531652, 0.17489653215802717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0201328330857634, 0.19493412088014617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2939921068513622 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.7181958621166045, "coverage": 0.9974772580555249, "baseline_score": -49.753573620055064, "spot_peer_score": -2.672466059421539, "peer_archived_score": 6.7181958621166045, "baseline_archived_score": -49.753573620055064, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.672466059421539 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1705344772.878224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1705344772.878224, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4000869214438264, 0.5999130785561736 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 270, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4395716-haley-looks-to-defy-expectations-in-iowa/).\n\n> Nikki Haley is looking to outperform expectations in the Iowa caucuses next week in hopes of solidifying her status as the top challenger to former President Trump in the Republican presidential primary. \n\nPolling shows [Trump leading in Iowa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses#Polling), with a tight race for second between Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis." }, { "id": 21003, "title": "Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?", "short_title": "2nd Anti Space Debris Fine before 2025?", "url_title": "2nd Anti Space Debris Fine before 2025?", "slug": "2nd-anti-space-debris-fine-before-2025", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-10T11:28:42.443041Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T19:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.346543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T19:46:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T19:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21003, "title": "Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-01-10T11:28:42.443041Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T19:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T19:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T19:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T16:10:46.049978Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2022, the FCC implemented a rule [mandating satellite operators to dispose of satellites within five years after their missions](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/oct/02/fcc-space-debris-fine-dish-network-satellite#:~:text=It%20says%20that%20the%20more,five%20years%20of%20mission%20completion.).\n\nIn 2002, DISH launched a satellite agreeing to move it to a \"graveyard orbit\" post-mission in 2012 to prevent risks. However, in 2022, due to low propellant, the satellite was positioned only 76 miles above the active geostationary orbit, missing its target by 178 km.\n\nIn October 2023, the FCC settled an investigation into DISH for \"[failure to properly deorbit its EchoStar-7 satellite,](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-397412A1.pdf)\" the first fine of this sort issued by the FCC.\n\n[9,600 satellites](https://sdup.esoc.esa.int/discosweb/statistics/) have been launched into space since the 1950s, and 6,800 are still functioning.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the FCC announces a second space debris enforcement action and this action includes a fine, penalty, or other sort of fee.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735689985.814926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735689985.814926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.045458872321052606 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.14981230697245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.31212449948102455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21019456889105456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 48.063446701016396, "peer_score": 3.3840921706280005, "coverage": 0.9966860360164431, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9966860360164431, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": 48.063446701016396, "peer_archived_score": 3.3840921706280005, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287547.068528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287547.068528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9404383057722961, 0.059561694227703854 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2022, the FCC implemented a rule [mandating satellite operators to dispose of satellites within five years after their missions](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/oct/02/fcc-space-debris-fine-dish-network-satellite#:~:text=It%20says%20that%20the%20more,five%20years%20of%20mission%20completion.).\n\nIn 2002, DISH launched a satellite agreeing to move it to a \"graveyard orbit\" post-mission in 2012 to prevent risks. However, in 2022, due to low propellant, the satellite was positioned only 76 miles above the active geostationary orbit, missing its target by 178 km.\n\nIn October 2023, the FCC settled an investigation into DISH for \"[failure to properly deorbit its EchoStar-7 satellite,](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-397412A1.pdf)\" the first fine of this sort issued by the FCC.\n\n[9,600 satellites](https://sdup.esoc.esa.int/discosweb/statistics/) have been launched into space since the 1950s, and 6,800 are still functioning." }, { "id": 21000, "title": "Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?", "short_title": "Increase in Biden Approval Among Youth?", "url_title": "Increase in Biden Approval Among Youth?", "slug": "increase-in-biden-approval-among-youth", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-10T11:28:39.390209Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T19:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.148757Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T19:56:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-01T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-01T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-18T15:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-18T15:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T19:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21000, "title": "Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-10T11:28:39.390209Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T19:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T19:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T19:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-18T15:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-18T15:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-18T15:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-01T23:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-01T23:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Harvard Institute of Politics](https://iop.harvard.edu/) conducts political polls in the spring and fall of every year. Biden's approval rating with youth aged 18-to-29 has been as high as 59% in the Spring 2021 poll, and has steadily declined in each subsequent poll, reaching a low of 35% in the Fall 2023 poll that was recently published. The [Harvard Crimson cited concerns](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/12/6/iop-youth-poll-fall-23/) such as climate change, gun control, the war in Ukraine, and the current conflict in Gaza as reasons for decreased support among young voters.\n\nA sufficient decline in turnout by young voters for Biden in 2024 could determine whether or not he wins battleground states in his bid for reelection.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the Spring 2024 [Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll](https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023) shows that Biden's approval rating among 18-to-29-year-olds is higher than the 35% reported in Fall 2023.", "fine_print": "If no poll is conducted in Spring 2024, or if a Biden approval rating is not reported, the question is annulled.", "post_id": 21000, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712009648.974747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712009648.974747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5257548185620664 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 1.0, 0.0, 0.19523450305981643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5762984429861834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 1.2137915895011253, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21714232244242104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.672390435075013, "coverage": 0.9940290080647545, "baseline_score": -4.8003434456461385, "spot_peer_score": 39.569851992811685, "peer_archived_score": 2.672390435075013, "baseline_archived_score": -4.8003434456461385, "spot_peer_archived_score": 39.569851992811685 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712009649.021065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712009649.021065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6299021356220653, 0.3700978643779347 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Harvard Institute of Politics](https://iop.harvard.edu/) conducts political polls in the spring and fall of every year. Biden's approval rating with youth aged 18-to-29 has been as high as 59% in the Spring 2021 poll, and has steadily declined in each subsequent poll, reaching a low of 35% in the Fall 2023 poll that was recently published. The [Harvard Crimson cited concerns](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/12/6/iop-youth-poll-fall-23/) such as climate change, gun control, the war in Ukraine, and the current conflict in Gaza as reasons for decreased support among young voters.\n\nA sufficient decline in turnout by young voters for Biden in 2024 could determine whether or not he wins battleground states in his bid for reelection." }, { "id": 20982, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "Iran Saudi Arabia War 2070", "url_title": "Iran Saudi Arabia War 2070", "slug": "iran-saudi-arabia-war-2070", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-09T16:52:50.320185Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T16:15:57.573461Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20982, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "created_at": "2024-01-09T16:52:50.320185Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Iran and Saudi Arabia have been fighting a [proxy war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_proxy_conflict) since the Iranian Revolution. They have not yet come to direct blows, and [third party countries](https://apnews.com/article/saudi-arabia-iran-diplomatic-ties-2f80bb71a995910cb4b172e5dbee3526) are attempting to mediate the dispute. [Speculation abounds](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-saudi-arabia-gaza/) about the effect of the Israel-Hamas War on Iran-Saudi relations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Iran and Saudi Arabia (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Iran and the government of Saudi Arabia).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Iran and the government of Saudi Arabia. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Iran or Saudi Arabia cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 20982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762532146.690397, "end_time": 1782008867.038, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762532146.690397, "end_time": 1782008867.038, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2805782605069954 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3877198068998373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.11243928018335109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8465205800777942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0902215738421042, 0.26404541201653237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8293469180051988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8546876299998948, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 1.6396872393145223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080321695294913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2461859716772012 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287763.115147, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287763.115147, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8137630490003442, 0.18623695099965581 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Iran and Saudi Arabia have been fighting a [proxy war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_proxy_conflict) since the Iranian Revolution. They have not yet come to direct blows, and [third party countries](https://apnews.com/article/saudi-arabia-iran-diplomatic-ties-2f80bb71a995910cb4b172e5dbee3526) are attempting to mediate the dispute. [Speculation abounds](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-saudi-arabia-gaza/) about the effect of the Israel-Hamas War on Iran-Saudi relations." }, { "id": 20975, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "Iran Azerbaijan War 2070", "url_title": "Iran Azerbaijan War 2070", "slug": "iran-azerbaijan-war-2070", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-09T16:37:26.254028Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-26T01:28:26.283623Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20975, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "created_at": "2024-01-09T16:37:26.254028Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Azerbaijanis are the [second-largest ethnic group in Iran.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Azerbaijanis#Demographics) [There has been recent political tension](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/8/analysis-will-azerbaijan-iran-tensions-lead-to-war) between Azerbaijan and Iran due the latter accusing the former of fomenting separatist sentiment in its territory. Azerbaijan has fought several conflicts against Armenia for the same reasons.\n\nThere has been an effort of [rapprochement](https://cepa.org/article/iran-seeks-to-make-a-friend-of-old-enemy-azerbaijan/) between the two countries, however.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Iran and Azerbaijan (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Iran and the government of Azerbaijan).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Iran and the government of Azerbaijan. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Iran or Azerbaijan cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 20975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758850095.429729, "end_time": 1850126967.66317, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758850095.429729, "end_time": 1850126967.66317, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.2823049591859173 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32677805160011447, 1.6316182707232363, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.07557908443735797, 1.436333067553669, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7118165837590469 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289534.828467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289534.828467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9024423712141352, 0.09755762878586484 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Azerbaijanis are the [second-largest ethnic group in Iran.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Azerbaijanis#Demographics) [There has been recent political tension](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/8/analysis-will-azerbaijan-iran-tensions-lead-to-war) between Azerbaijan and Iran due the latter accusing the former of fomenting separatist sentiment in its territory. Azerbaijan has fought several conflicts against Armenia for the same reasons.\n\nThere has been an effort of [rapprochement](https://cepa.org/article/iran-seeks-to-make-a-friend-of-old-enemy-azerbaijan/) between the two countries, however." }, { "id": 20968, "title": "Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?", "short_title": "South China Sea Settlement by 2030", "url_title": "South China Sea Settlement by 2030", "slug": "south-china-sea-settlement-by-2030", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-09T08:34:17.131148Z", "published_at": "2025-02-11T17:40:53.672241Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T18:03:55.129611Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-11T17:40:53.672239Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-14T17:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20968, "title": "Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?", "created_at": "2024-01-09T08:34:17.131148Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T17:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-18T17:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-18T17:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Eight countries border the South China Sea: China (People's of Republic of China/PRC, but \"China\" hereafter), Taiwan (Republic of China/ROC, but just \"Taiwan\" hereafter), the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Singapore. All but Singapore have active disputes over parts of the sea. The largest disputant is China, which claims almost the entire sea. See [this site](https://chinaus-icas.org/icas-maritime-affairs-program/map-maritime-issue-trackers/maritime-tracker-south-sea/south-china-sea-maritime-claims/) for visualization tools, or see [this map](http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/article-images/uid-606-1452634492/b26fe8.png):\n\n\n\nThe South China Sea includes six surface (or near-surface) features:\n\n| Feature | Claimant(s) | De Facto Control in 2023 |\n| ----------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| Paracel Islands | China, Taiwan, Vietnam | China |\n| Spratly Islands | China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei | Divided; e.g., China controls Fiery Cross Reef, Taiwan controls Itu Aba (geographically largest ) |\n| Pratas Islands | China, Taiwan, Philippines | Taiwan |\n| Scarborough Shoal | China, Taiwan, Philippines | China |\n| Macclesfield Bank (submerged atoll) | China, Taiwan | ??? |\n| Natuna Islands | Indonesia | Indonesia |\n\nChina and Vietnam have invested heavily in naval and dual-use assets to bolster their claims. [A 2022 report by the RAND Corporation (PDF)](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2000/PEA2021-1/RAND_PEA2021-1.pdf) summarizes the economic importance of the region:\n\n> In 2019, it held an estimated 12 percent of the world’s total fish catch. Approximately one-third of all global maritime trade, totaling an estimated \\$3.37 trillion in 2016, passes through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. In 2017, 40 percent of the world’s liquified natural gas passed through the South China Sea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that there are 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas beneath the South China Sea but cautions that “it is unclear how economically feasible it would be to extract them.” China transports the most goods through the South China Sea, followed by South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if, prior to the end of 2030, any of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, or Vietnam reaches a formal public agreement with China on its maritime boundary with the People's Republic of China.\n\nSuch agreement could take many forms: full recognition of China's claims, China's full recognition of competing claims, or any other settlement, as long as both countries officially agree on the boundary. The agreement must cover the entire maritime boundary between the two countries. For example, if China and Vietnam settle their dispute over the Paracels but not over the Spratleys, then this is not enough for Yes.\n\nResolves **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "\"Formal public agreement\" can be a joint public statement, joint written communiqué, treaty, or other official announcement, or such announcements or statements separately if done by both parties.\n\nAgreement still counts even if extracted under duress. For example, if China and Vietnam fight (as they did in 1974 and 1988), and China forces Vietnam to accept China's sovereignty claims, the resolution is **Yes**. But \"agreement by subsumation\" doesn't count. For example, if China conquers Taiwan, effectively removing Taiwan's objections to the PRC's claims, this doesn't count as Yes.", "post_id": 20968, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761847424.713503, "end_time": 1768595031.609, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.332 ], "centers": [ 0.333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761847424.713503, "end_time": 1768595031.609, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.332 ], "centers": [ 0.333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.667, 0.333 ], "means": [ 0.4958497573066826 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.78972698844193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Eight countries border the South China Sea: China (People's of Republic of China/PRC, but \"China\" hereafter), Taiwan (Republic of China/ROC, but just \"Taiwan\" hereafter), the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Singapore. All but Singapore have active disputes over parts of the sea. The largest disputant is China, which claims almost the entire sea. See [this site](https://chinaus-icas.org/icas-maritime-affairs-program/map-maritime-issue-trackers/maritime-tracker-south-sea/south-china-sea-maritime-claims/) for visualization tools, or see [this map](http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/article-images/uid-606-1452634492/b26fe8.png):\n\n\n\nThe South China Sea includes six surface (or near-surface) features:\n\n| Feature | Claimant(s) | De Facto Control in 2023 |\n| ----------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| Paracel Islands | China, Taiwan, Vietnam | China |\n| Spratly Islands | China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei | Divided; e.g., China controls Fiery Cross Reef, Taiwan controls Itu Aba (geographically largest ) |\n| Pratas Islands | China, Taiwan, Philippines | Taiwan |\n| Scarborough Shoal | China, Taiwan, Philippines | China |\n| Macclesfield Bank (submerged atoll) | China, Taiwan | ??? |\n| Natuna Islands | Indonesia | Indonesia |\n\nChina and Vietnam have invested heavily in naval and dual-use assets to bolster their claims. [A 2022 report by the RAND Corporation (PDF)](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2000/PEA2021-1/RAND_PEA2021-1.pdf) summarizes the economic importance of the region:\n\n> In 2019, it held an estimated 12 percent of the world’s total fish catch. Approximately one-third of all global maritime trade, totaling an estimated \\$3.37 trillion in 2016, passes through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. In 2017, 40 percent of the world’s liquified natural gas passed through the South China Sea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that there are 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas beneath the South China Sea but cautions that “it is unclear how economically feasible it would be to extract them.” China transports the most goods through the South China Sea, followed by South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan." }, { "id": 20953, "title": "Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?", "short_title": "Aerial Drone Attack in the US Before 2026?", "url_title": "Aerial Drone Attack in the US Before 2026?", "slug": "aerial-drone-attack-in-the-us-before-2026", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-06T18:33:16.623288Z", "published_at": "2024-03-25T18:03:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T19:14:20.227656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-25T18:03:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-25T18:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20953, "title": "Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-01-06T18:33:16.623288Z", "open_time": "2024-03-25T18:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-28T18:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-28T18:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Weaponized aerial drones, especially the FPV drones rose in popularity in 2022 as a [new type of weapon in the Russo-Ukrainian war](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/02/drones-russia-ukraine-air-war/). The modern commercial FPV drones have an operational range of 2-3 km (more with the retranslator), and are easy to build and use for engaging moving and stationary targets. With the addition of AI-supported target tracking, their success rate can be further improved, turning them into a new type of weapon used for eliminating high-valued targets or in acts of terrorism across the globe.\n\nAs a potential weapon of terrorism, it has a number of advantages: \n\n* The drones themselves are considered civilian equipment and are much less regulated compared to firearms. In most countries they can be shipped across the borders without extra permissions.\n* Comparable price to a sniper rifle. The current price of a DJI Mavic 3 drone is [about $2000](https://www.amazon.com/DJI-Mavic-Hasselblad-Omnidirectional-Transmission/dp/B09HH8B79P?th=1). However, it usually needs additional work to be turned into a combat drone.\n* Using the drone does not require the operator to have a line-of-sight with the target. The operator can remain hidden throughout the process and leave the area unnoticed. \n* Compared to using an IED the drone does not require the operator to ever visit the target area.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves a **Yes** if after March 22, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that a terrorist attack using an aerial drone led to at least one injury or death in the United States.", "fine_print": "The reports from credible sources must explicitly mention the words \"terrorist attack\", \"act of terrorism\" or a similar phrase. Deaths or injuries caused by accident, during military training, or as a result of criminal shootouts will not trigger the resolution. Attacks by the governments of foreign countries will generally not be considered to be terrorist attacks.\n\nThe drone in question must meet following criteria:\n\n* Be remotely controlled\n* Have an explosive payload\n* Have propellers or another means of flying and be in a state of flight at the moment of the event (that is, not lying on the ground or in a storage)\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the United States includes the land area that belongs to any of the [50 US states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States) and the District of Columbia. The following territories will not trigger the resolution of the question:\n\n* [Territories of the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territories_of_the_United_States)\n* US embassies and consulates in foreign countries\n* US ships\n* US military bases in foreign countries\n\nMetaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of initial reporting is in doubt. If it is unclear whether an event was a terrorist attack resolution may wait for additional confirmation. Where information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 20953, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762993872.430866, "end_time": 1768598955.016, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762993872.430866, "end_time": 1768598955.016, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.055997660414710805 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2294348988188281, 2.1257565857003033, 0.0, 1.2578746126599194, 1.6591081534864531, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.7080730986362569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07803584772168365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288751.715984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288751.715984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8794237687620704, 0.1205762312379296 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 239, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Weaponized aerial drones, especially the FPV drones rose in popularity in 2022 as a [new type of weapon in the Russo-Ukrainian war](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/02/drones-russia-ukraine-air-war/). The modern commercial FPV drones have an operational range of 2-3 km (more with the retranslator), and are easy to build and use for engaging moving and stationary targets. With the addition of AI-supported target tracking, their success rate can be further improved, turning them into a new type of weapon used for eliminating high-valued targets or in acts of terrorism across the globe.\n\nAs a potential weapon of terrorism, it has a number of advantages: \n\n* The drones themselves are considered civilian equipment and are much less regulated compared to firearms. In most countries they can be shipped across the borders without extra permissions.\n* Comparable price to a sniper rifle. The current price of a DJI Mavic 3 drone is [about $2000](https://www.amazon.com/DJI-Mavic-Hasselblad-Omnidirectional-Transmission/dp/B09HH8B79P?th=1). However, it usually needs additional work to be turned into a combat drone.\n* Using the drone does not require the operator to have a line-of-sight with the target. The operator can remain hidden throughout the process and leave the area unnoticed. \n* Compared to using an IED the drone does not require the operator to ever visit the target area." }, { "id": 20925, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "short_title": "Natural Pandemic to cause (near) extinction?", "url_title": "Natural Pandemic to cause (near) extinction?", "slug": "natural-pandemic-to-cause-near-extinction", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104761, "username": "Tamay" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-05T04:53:32.359114Z", "published_at": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:37:27.552699Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:06:36.987803Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:06:36.987803Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20925, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "created_at": "2024-01-05T04:53:32.359114Z", "open_time": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-06T14:43:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-06T14:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n\nIn the [headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/), a global catastrophe is defined as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. On this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe.\n\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on that definition, as it is [estimated](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history) that it killed between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years, that is between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2100 a global natural pandemic catastrophe that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) occurs, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves **No** if such a global natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. The question will be **Annulled** if no such global natural pandemic catastrophe occurs before 2100.\n\nResolution requires there to be a high degree of confidence that the relevant pathogens have natural origins, as opposed to being artificially created, modified, or enhanced in a laboratory setting, such as through Gain of Function research. Announcements to that effect from two major institutions (e.g., WHO, CDC) will suffice if no major institutions announce that there is a significant probability that the pathogen is engineered. For the purpose of this question, \"years\" are defined as consecutive calendar years.", "fine_print": "This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. For a list of other questions in the series see the background of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/).\n\nPopulation estimates would come from the UN or its successor. If no such estimates are published, admins might consult other reputable sources.", "post_id": 20925, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762918636.659622, "end_time": 1951273195.425643, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0135010872 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762918636.659622, "end_time": 1951273195.425643, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0135010872 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.035507143225813116 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.411737749025979, 3.337571944552345, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287754.146709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287754.146709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9982381924930981, 0.0017618075069019564 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n\nIn the [headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/), a global catastrophe is defined as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. On this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe.\n\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on that definition, as it is [estimated](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history) that it killed between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years, that is between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time." } ] }
:\n\n\n\nThe](http://map](http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/article-images/uid-606-1452634492/b26fe8.png):%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5CnThe){kind=link}