Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3200
{ "count": 5980, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3220", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3180", "results": [ { "id": 17660, "title": "Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?", "short_title": "Mandatory Cyclone Evacuation in VA in 2023?", "url_title": "Mandatory Cyclone Evacuation in VA in 2023?", "slug": "mandatory-cyclone-evacuation-in-va-in-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-29T16:18:46.436555Z", "published_at": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.700047Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:23:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2100, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II", "slug": "keep-virginia-safe-ii", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Layer_0_copy_2.webp", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-04-05T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-03-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-06-12T08:35:59.630739Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2955, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.170106Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:16.280664Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2955, "type": "question_series", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "close_date": "2024-03-02T17:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.170106Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:16.280664Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17660, "title": "Will a mandatory evacuation order be issued for any area of Virginia related to any tropical cyclone in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-29T16:18:46.436555Z", "open_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-06T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-06T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hurricane season in Virginia runs from [June 1 to November 30](https://www.vaemergency.gov/threats/hurricanes/). Virginia uses a system known as [\"Know Your Zone\"](https://va-know-your-zone-vdemgis.hub.arcgis.com/) featuring four zones for at-risk areas which can be used for evacuation orders:\r\n\r\n>“Know Your Zone” serves roughly 1.25 million residents who live in Coastal Virginia, the region of the state most vulnerable to hurricanes and other tropical storms. Twenty-three localities participate in the tiered evacuation zones. Zones were developed in close coordination with local emergency managers throughout Hampton Roads, the Northern Neck, the Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore based on the most up-to-date engineering data for the region.\r\n>\r\n>Zones are designated A through D. Zones provide residents with clarity on whether they should evacuate in an emergency or shelter at home, based on their physical street address and the nature of the emergency event. When a serious storm is expected to threaten or impact Virginia’s coastal regions, state and local emergency agencies will work with local news media outlets, as well as social media channels, that will then broadcast and publish evacuation directives to the public.\r\n>\r\n>. . .\r\n>\r\n>When a storm is approaching, emergency managers will determine which zones are most at risk considering the intensity, path, speed, tides and other meteorological factors. Emergency managers at the state and local level will work with local media and use social media and other tools to notify residents of impacted zones what they should do to stay safe.\r\n>\r\n>Depending on the emergency, being safe might mean staying at home, a short trip to higher ground, or traveling to a different region of the state.\r\n\r\nThe Governor, Virginia Emergency Management Officials, and Local Governments may order a mandatory evacuation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the government of Virginia (either state or local) orders a mandatory evacuation related to any tropical cyclone.", "fine_print": "A mandatory evacuation need not be for an entire zone, a mandatory evacuation related to any tropical cyclone for a city or other region would also be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 17660, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055583.113841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055583.113841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.056143112512699773 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.885813433716825, 2.591439130411893, 0.2519740871949554, 0.10299458082921686, 0.3049561900209807, 0.3870916529473755, 0.0, 0.14132753844395196, 0.3001012763665529, 0.0, 0.2131831510547586, 0.014847804209650994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07807940007898889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021159747596370834, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07969882353158218, 0.15635056202879707, 0.2758521521053194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007784236121081673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024887815310673432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005954525306226569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028636604341700815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009856869823379553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017823678094023753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30155575609455343 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.478048574225653, "coverage": 0.9999811427212195, "baseline_score": 75.58045823573701, "spot_peer_score": 8.913273638998652, "peer_archived_score": 20.478048574225653, "baseline_archived_score": 75.58045823573701, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.913273638998652 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704055583.140986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704055583.140986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hurricane season in Virginia runs from [June 1 to November 30](https://www.vaemergency.gov/threats/hurricanes/). Virginia uses a system known as [\"Know Your Zone\"](https://va-know-your-zone-vdemgis.hub.arcgis.com/) featuring four zones for at-risk areas which can be used for evacuation orders:\r\n\r\n>“Know Your Zone” serves roughly 1.25 million residents who live in Coastal Virginia, the region of the state most vulnerable to hurricanes and other tropical storms. Twenty-three localities participate in the tiered evacuation zones. Zones were developed in close coordination with local emergency managers throughout Hampton Roads, the Northern Neck, the Middle Peninsula and the Eastern Shore based on the most up-to-date engineering data for the region.\r\n>\r\n>Zones are designated A through D. Zones provide residents with clarity on whether they should evacuate in an emergency or shelter at home, based on their physical street address and the nature of the emergency event. When a serious storm is expected to threaten or impact Virginia’s coastal regions, state and local emergency agencies will work with local news media outlets, as well as social media channels, that will then broadcast and publish evacuation directives to the public.\r\n>\r\n>. . .\r\n>\r\n>When a storm is approaching, emergency managers will determine which zones are most at risk considering the intensity, path, speed, tides and other meteorological factors. Emergency managers at the state and local level will work with local media and use social media and other tools to notify residents of impacted zones what they should do to stay safe.\r\n>\r\n>Depending on the emergency, being safe might mean staying at home, a short trip to higher ground, or traveling to a different region of the state.\r\n\r\nThe Governor, Virginia Emergency Management Officials, and Local Governments may order a mandatory evacuation." }, { "id": 17655, "title": "Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?", "short_title": "Palestinian Authority bankrupt in 2023?", "url_title": "Palestinian Authority bankrupt in 2023?", "slug": "palestinian-authority-bankrupt-in-2023", "author_id": 149110, "author_username": "larik1982", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-29T13:52:37.402302Z", "published_at": "2023-07-07T01:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.158508Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-07T01:22:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T01:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17655, "title": "Will the Palestinian Authority declare itself bankrupt before the end of 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-29T13:52:37.402302Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T01:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-09T01:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-09T01:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In late June 2023, Israel's public broadcasting network [reported](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/palestinian-territories/1687947488-palestinian-authority-discusses-possible-bankruptcy-amidst-financial-troubles) that the Palestinian Authority may need to declare bankruptcy. Representatives of the Palestinian Authority [disputed this claim](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230703-pa-minister-dismisses-possibility-of-bankruptcy/).", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, reputable sources report the Palestinian Authority is bankrupt.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17655, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703989350.144895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703989350.144895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.026018220812915833 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.116151103515008, 5.288334558464893, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.2510353527084724, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1799995535041516, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.590771510703721, "coverage": 0.9971937301635796, "baseline_score": 89.37171884804232, "spot_peer_score": 12.624545485768582, "peer_archived_score": 5.590771510703721, "baseline_archived_score": 89.37171884804232, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.624545485768582 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008405.143351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008405.143351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In late June 2023, Israel's public broadcasting network [reported](https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/middle-east/palestinian-territories/1687947488-palestinian-authority-discusses-possible-bankruptcy-amidst-financial-troubles) that the Palestinian Authority may need to declare bankruptcy. Representatives of the Palestinian Authority [disputed this claim](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230703-pa-minister-dismisses-possibility-of-bankruptcy/)." }, { "id": 17598, "title": "Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?", "short_title": "Garland Impeached Before 2024 Election", "url_title": "Garland Impeached Before 2024 Election", "slug": "garland-impeached-before-2024-election", "author_id": 123419, "author_username": "Prodicus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-27T09:34:10.494352Z", "published_at": "2023-06-28T21:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.795757Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-28T21:40:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-28T21:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17598, "title": "Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?", "created_at": "2023-06-27T09:34:10.494352Z", "open_time": "2023-06-28T21:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-30T21:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-30T21:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T17:42:39.874284Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "To date, no sitting Attorney General of the United States of America has ever been impeached. The closest case was in 1922, when [Attorney General Harry M. Daugherty faced an impeachment investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_officials#Attorney_General_Harry_M._Daugherty_(Republican)). Now, in response to potential mishandling of criminal cases related to sitting President Joseph Biden's son Hunter Biden, the Speaker of the House of Representatives has said that [Attorney General Merrick Garland's impeachment is being considered](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mccarthy-considers-impeachment-inquiry-ag-merrick-garland-hunter/story?id=100393665).\n\n>House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is considering launching an impeachment inquiry over Attorney General Merrick Garland's handling of the investigation into President Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden.\n\n>McCarthy tweeted on Sunday that he wants Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney David Weiss to provide answers to the House Judiciary Committee regarding accusations made by two former IRS agents about Weiss' probe of the younger Biden, on which they worked.\n\n>\"If the whistleblowers' allegations are true, this will be a significant part of a larger impeachment inquiry into Merrick Garland's weaponization of DOJ,\" McCarthy wrote. (An inquiry would be a precursor to the House potentially voting on specific articles of impeachment on Garland.)\n\n>On Monday, McCarthy said on Fox News: \"If it comes true what the IRS whistleblower is saying, we're going to start impeachment inquiries on the attorney general.\"\n\nThe impeachment of Merrick Garland would be notable not only for having been the first impeachment of an Attorney General in United States history, but also for its potential political impact on the 2024 Presidential election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Attorney General Merrick Garland is impeached by the United States House of Representatives before November 5th, 2024.", "fine_print": "* This question resolves purely and only on the basis of impeachment by the House of Representatives. Conviction in the Senate is neither required nor relevant.\n* This question will resolve as **No** if Garland is not impeached before November 5th, 2024, even if Attorney General Garland resigns or dies before the resolution date. Note that even in such case, an early resolution of **No** will not be possible, as the second impeachment of Donald Trump has demonstrated that impeachments can occur even after the individual no longer holds office.", "post_id": 17598, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730669604.407666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730669604.407666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.013248508118725503 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.299168131948216, 2.2335786209915085, 0.6065719876167774, 0.357428079231559, 0.24914587602095306, 0.41078356131525007, 0.01590012308576472, 0.0, 0.2473710650506747, 0.15724883273568244, 0.04038661645555275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009168893311555158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055089962873426206, 0.0464771490380007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004474424132665067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021518476613089726, 0.0, 0.04888313629975682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005849328395348274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.16459522650518, "peer_score": 7.927756175302221, "coverage": 0.9999505246737054, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999505246737054, "spot_peer_score": 6.10035609086405, "baseline_archived_score": 91.16459522650518, "peer_archived_score": 7.927756175302221, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.10035609086405 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287877.679777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287877.679777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "To date, no sitting Attorney General of the United States of America has ever been impeached. The closest case was in 1922, when [Attorney General Harry M. Daugherty faced an impeachment investigation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_impeachment_investigations_of_United_States_federal_officials#Attorney_General_Harry_M._Daugherty_(Republican)). Now, in response to potential mishandling of criminal cases related to sitting President Joseph Biden's son Hunter Biden, the Speaker of the House of Representatives has said that [Attorney General Merrick Garland's impeachment is being considered](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/mccarthy-considers-impeachment-inquiry-ag-merrick-garland-hunter/story?id=100393665).\n\n>House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is considering launching an impeachment inquiry over Attorney General Merrick Garland's handling of the investigation into President Joe Biden's son, Hunter Biden.\n\n>McCarthy tweeted on Sunday that he wants Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney David Weiss to provide answers to the House Judiciary Committee regarding accusations made by two former IRS agents about Weiss' probe of the younger Biden, on which they worked.\n\n>\"If the whistleblowers' allegations are true, this will be a significant part of a larger impeachment inquiry into Merrick Garland's weaponization of DOJ,\" McCarthy wrote. 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Their head coach, Mike Brown, was the first coach in NBA history to [unanimously be named](https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nba/sacramento-kings/article274474515.html) Coach of the Year.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the Sacramento Kings reach the Conference Semifinals of the NBA playoffs for the 2023-2024 NBA season.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17593, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713186480.785776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713186480.785776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.14304417415214732 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.341965030519987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2928206648352225, 0.8218869508967813, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 1.3022490838961098, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.256296736744026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2188564438547366, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.5661009165733082, "coverage": 0.9974008884904114, "baseline_score": 29.621182227716094, "spot_peer_score": 11.175888618031088, "peer_archived_score": -0.5661009165733082, "baseline_archived_score": 29.621182227716094, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.175888618031088 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713186480.826138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713186480.826138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9744291413020898, 0.02557085869791025 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Sacremento Kings were one of the [surprises](https://www.skysports.com/nba/news/12028/12904737/2022-23-nba-season-review-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly) of the 2022-23 NBA season, reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Their head coach, Mike Brown, was the first coach in NBA history to [unanimously be named](https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nba/sacramento-kings/article274474515.html) Coach of the Year." }, { "id": 17592, "title": "Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Dow Jones Reaches 35k Before August 2023?", "url_title": "Dow Jones Reaches 35k Before August 2023?", "slug": "dow-jones-reaches-35k-before-august-2023", "author_id": 147273, "author_username": "mriddle", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-25T23:34:19.822849Z", "published_at": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.964356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-19T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 182, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17592, "title": "Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-25T23:34:19.822849Z", "open_time": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-06T22:57:58.314756Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-06T22:57:58.314756Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-19T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-19T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Investopedia describes the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/djia.asp) as follows:\n\n>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a stock market index that tracks 30 large, publicly-owned blue-chip companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones is named after Charles Dow, who created the index in 1896 along with his business partner, Edward Jones. Also referred to as the Dow 30, the index is considered to be a gauge of the broader U.S. economy.\n>. . . \n>The DJIA launched in 1896 with just 12 companies, primarily in the industrial sector. They included railroads, cotton, gas, sugar, tobacco, and oil. The index grew to 30 components by 1928. Since then, it's changed many times—the very first came three months after the 30-component index launched. The first large-scale change was in 1932 when eight stocks in the Dow were replaced.\n>\n>The Dow is reevaluated on a regular basis. Companies are replaced when they no longer meet the index's listing criteria with those that do. Over time, the index became a bellwether of the U.S. economy, reflecting economic changes. For example, U.S. Steel was removed from the index in 1991 and replaced by building material company Martin Marietta.\n\nDJIA milestones are a popular subject of reports, particularly in increments of $5,000. The DJIA [first hit $35,000 in July of 2021](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dow-jones-today-35000-first-time/) but declined in early 2022 as [markets fell](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/) amid [high inflation](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16FjE) and [rising federal funds rates](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16iWr). The DJIA has not reached $35,000 since early 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 3, 2023 and before August 1, 2023, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closes at or above $35,000 according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history?p=%5EDJI).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17592, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689797109.025765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 182, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689797109.025765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 182, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9682521974410838 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0010741177252844374, 0.0, 0.00036232346318498663, 0.0, 0.001220606295562353, 0.0, 2.3410862392893172e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00215004106960638, 0.001051552134978165, 0.0017479543202170607, 0.0, 0.0045129373305192785, 0.0, 0.004691056929177161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009931597793361535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010532027578123082, 0.0008353887890924406, 0.021879050939369694, 0.016409316214386887, 0.0, 0.020456675218109836, 0.0, 0.006766614864541703, 0.0, 0.017476218675085583, 0.01791145571724487, 0.002976330585691177, 0.032949901624429005, 0.001874084487187542, 0.004520885120704202, 0.0, 0.004389763986605724, 0.03797353800940952, 0.020203590773710825, 0.0, 8.123993345234554e-05, 0.008581003048623472, 0.0001636312770363619, 0.011212370926537516, 0.018302611707135763, 0.0, 6.653687737431605e-05, 0.0416473750714589, 0.014741051360396558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016291941851079427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004669519242201262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07786106478195007, 0.08284883777820473, 0.0, 0.0, 8.544548928091942e-05, 0.0004714084376997052, 0.0, 0.1457218806272042, 0.0, 1.6026806675542162e-05, 0.17167373400697733, 0.0827101160271678, 0.0, 0.049655352904120285, 0.0, 0.3292623552074465, 0.0, 0.04299561563587514, 1.022435883901734e-05, 0.08413573237910194, 0.04782471097211304, 9.629473860520273e-05, 0.09922178561650803, 0.11119688083683586, 0.07222586385935753, 0.26829523414205997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28184789742155847, 1.188128273658218, 0.8786587744480575, 0.506629417869477, 2.3444120365440373, 18.282503832966192 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.546366691061737, "coverage": 0.5629756649071546, "baseline_score": -29.77163517667617, "spot_peer_score": -7.719730385897265, "peer_archived_score": 5.546366691061737, "baseline_archived_score": -29.77163517667617, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.719730385897265 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689782107.700413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689782107.700413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10871532819962881, 0.8912846718003712 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1020, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Investopedia describes the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/djia.asp) as follows:\n\n>The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a stock market index that tracks 30 large, publicly-owned blue-chip companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones is named after Charles Dow, who created the index in 1896 along with his business partner, Edward Jones. Also referred to as the Dow 30, the index is considered to be a gauge of the broader U.S. economy.\n>. . . \n>The DJIA launched in 1896 with just 12 companies, primarily in the industrial sector. They included railroads, cotton, gas, sugar, tobacco, and oil. The index grew to 30 components by 1928. Since then, it's changed many times—the very first came three months after the 30-component index launched. The first large-scale change was in 1932 when eight stocks in the Dow were replaced.\n>\n>The Dow is reevaluated on a regular basis. Companies are replaced when they no longer meet the index's listing criteria with those that do. Over time, the index became a bellwether of the U.S. economy, reflecting economic changes. For example, U.S. Steel was removed from the index in 1991 and replaced by building material company Martin Marietta.\n\nDJIA milestones are a popular subject of reports, particularly in increments of $5,000. The DJIA [first hit $35,000 in July of 2021](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dow-jones-today-35000-first-time/) but declined in early 2022 as [markets fell](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5458/next-sp-500-correction/) amid [high inflation](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16FjE) and [rising federal funds rates](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=16iWr). The DJIA has not reached $35,000 since early 2022." }, { "id": 17584, "title": "Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?", "short_title": "Chain of Freedom Scotland 2023?", "url_title": "Chain of Freedom Scotland 2023?", "slug": "chain-of-freedom-scotland-2023", "author_id": 148784, "author_username": "alfieshaw0", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-25T14:14:32.855233Z", "published_at": "2023-10-05T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.059412Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-05T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-13T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-13T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T15:09:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-05T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17584, "title": "Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-25T14:14:32.855233Z", "open_time": "2023-10-05T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-09T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-09T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-16T15:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-16T15:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-13T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-13T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A political rally on 14 October 2023 organised by [Chain of Freedom Scotland](https://chainoffreedom.scot/) aims to form a human chain spanning the width of Scotland, following the route of the Forth and Clyde Canal. Will this aim be achieved?\n\nThe rally is inspired by [Baltic Way](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Way), a similar event that took place in 1989 and saw approximately 2 million people join hands in a continuous human chain running 430 miles across the Baltic States, which at the time were occupied by the Soviet Union. \n\nThe chain aims to be continuous with the [exception that roads will not be blocked](https://chainoffreedom.scot/the-plan-info-details/):\n\n>The Chain of Freedom will NOT close down any roads, nor cross any roads, which will disrupt the public. Should there be a road in your section. The Chain will stop at one side and then restart at the other.\n\nThe event organizers estimate that one person per meter is needed, and the Forth and Clyde canal is roughly [56 kilometers in length](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forth_and_Clyde_Canal), meaning that roughly 56,000 people would to attend to complete the chain. A map of the planned route is [here](https://chainoffreedom.scot/#livemap).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 16, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a \"continuous\" or \"nearly continuous\" human chain stretched across the length of the Forth and Clyde canal on October 14, 2023, with sufficient attendance for the chain to be unbroken for the full length or nearly the full length, with the exception of openings for roads.", "fine_print": "* If reports are unclear or sources conflict on whether the chain is at least \"nearly continuous\", the question will resolve as **Yes** if attendance is estimated to be 50,000 people or more. Where a range of attendance estimates is provided the median will be used.\n* In the event of conflicting reports or attendance estimates, Metaculus will make a determination of whether descriptions from credible sources meet these criteria, or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n* This question will primarily rely on characterizations from credible sources, but the frequent use of flags, ropes, chains, or other objects to stretch between large gaps in humans will generally be considered to not count. 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Will this aim be achieved?\n\nThe rally is inspired by [Baltic Way](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Way), a similar event that took place in 1989 and saw approximately 2 million people join hands in a continuous human chain running 430 miles across the Baltic States, which at the time were occupied by the Soviet Union. \n\nThe chain aims to be continuous with the [exception that roads will not be blocked](https://chainoffreedom.scot/the-plan-info-details/):\n\n>The Chain of Freedom will NOT close down any roads, nor cross any roads, which will disrupt the public. Should there be a road in your section. The Chain will stop at one side and then restart at the other.\n\nThe event organizers estimate that one person per meter is needed, and the Forth and Clyde canal is roughly [56 kilometers in length](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forth_and_Clyde_Canal), meaning that roughly 56,000 people would to attend to complete the chain. A map of the planned route is [here](https://chainoffreedom.scot/#livemap)." }, { "id": 17581, "title": "Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?", "short_title": "Musk - Zuckerberg Cage Match 2023", "url_title": "Musk - Zuckerberg Cage Match 2023", "slug": "musk-zuckerberg-cage-match-2023", "author_id": 147790, "author_username": "SusanB", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-25T00:29:50.448661Z", "published_at": "2023-07-07T00:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.854030Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-07T00:08:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 167, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17581, "title": "Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-25T00:29:50.448661Z", "open_time": "2023-07-07T00:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-08T15:20:27.323064Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-08T15:20:27.323064Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Twitter & Facebook have been abuzz regarding the interaction that occurred between the two high-profile tech billionaires - Elon Musk & Mark Zuckerberg. \n\nIt seems that both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have [agreed to fight each other](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/22/elon-musk-vs-mark-zuckerberg-cage-fight/) in a cage match, in not so many words at least, by the following exchange:\n\nMusk posted a message on his social media platform Twitter that he was \"up for a cage fight\" with Zuckerberg.\n\nZuckerberg, owner of Facebook and Instagram parent company Meta, then posted a screenshot of Musk's tweet, saying \"send me location\".\"\n\nMany news outlets have been discussing the [two billionaires' competitive history](https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-cage-fight-b71fa4ff) with one another, their fighting abilities and strengths, and who has a better chance of winning. Social media is also in a frenzy of speculation regarding when (and if) the cage match will occur, and which of the two will win.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if a publicly-evident cage match occurs directly between Elon Musk & Mark Zuckerberg, before January 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17581, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074383.869867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074383.869867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01212448144000305 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.8976642396954, 4.721267056925329, 0.2185593280953732, 0.17283013719709667, 0.01769180809541363, 0.14169926044054518, 0.03090972121801832, 0.024962372514718903, 0.00989006935827425, 0.00029544836916931634, 0.6322532207901084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04863785962520711, 0.0, 0.0008384556843438074, 0.035687358799118066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021653281327292787, 0.006007954762751545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16004320372597897, 0.0038836882400290597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016082996947872207, 0.14619002194875286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039656981489280166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013626926281197823, 0.0, 0.0028747770043234962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.004300263735323e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01745918515613957 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.627059722722365, "coverage": 0.9990554119523363, "baseline_score": 96.36886656250437, "spot_peer_score": 48.87213139755056, "peer_archived_score": 16.627059722722365, "baseline_archived_score": 96.36886656250437, "spot_peer_archived_score": 48.87213139755056 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074383.899194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074383.899194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 433, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Twitter & Facebook have been abuzz regarding the interaction that occurred between the two high-profile tech billionaires - Elon Musk & Mark Zuckerberg. \n\nIt seems that both Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg have [agreed to fight each other](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/06/22/elon-musk-vs-mark-zuckerberg-cage-fight/) in a cage match, in not so many words at least, by the following exchange:\n\nMusk posted a message on his social media platform Twitter that he was \"up for a cage fight\" with Zuckerberg.\n\nZuckerberg, owner of Facebook and Instagram parent company Meta, then posted a screenshot of Musk's tweet, saying \"send me location\".\"\n\nMany news outlets have been discussing the [two billionaires' competitive history](https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-cage-fight-b71fa4ff) with one another, their fighting abilities and strengths, and who has a better chance of winning. Social media is also in a frenzy of speculation regarding when (and if) the cage match will occur, and which of the two will win." }, { "id": 17580, "title": "Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?", "short_title": "Kremlin/Wagner Agreement Holds?", "url_title": "Kremlin/Wagner Agreement Holds?", "slug": "kremlinwagner-agreement-holds", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-24T20:07:09.135257Z", "published_at": "2023-06-24T20:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.529521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-24T20:30:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-24T20:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 153, 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17580, "title": "Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?", "created_at": "2023-06-24T20:07:09.135257Z", "open_time": "2023-06-24T20:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-24T21:48:15.192132Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-24T21:48:15.192132Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T20:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142) on Saturday, June 24th, that his mercenaries will suspend their advance towards Moscow and return to Ukraine. \n\nAlexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus and a firm supporter of President Vladimir Putin, [asserted his role](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-wagner-prigozhin-putin) in brokering this ceasefire.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **No** if Yevgeny Prigozhin publicly states any of the following:\n\n- That Wagner forces will again mobilize within Russia with the goal of enacting change within Russian government.\n- Anything equivalent to \"the deal is off\"\n\nThe question also resolves **No** based on credible reports of Wagner Group mobilizations within Russia with a goal of enacting change within a Russian governmental entity.\n\nIf none of the above happen before 8pm ET on June 30, 2023, the question resolves **Yes**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17580, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688156457.735548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688156457.735548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9793896556066098 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0032274358995859785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142) on Saturday, June 24th, that his mercenaries will suspend their advance towards Moscow and return to Ukraine. \n\nAlexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus and a firm supporter of President Vladimir Putin, [asserted his role](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-wagner-prigozhin-putin) in brokering this ceasefire." }, { "id": 17571, "title": "Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023?", "url_title": "Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023?", "slug": "wagner-group-controls-moscow-by-july-1-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-24T14:23:38.965642Z", "published_at": "2023-06-24T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.182431Z", "curation_status": 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"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17571, "title": "Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-24T14:23:38.965642Z", "open_time": "2023-06-24T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-24T15:52:16.635871Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-24T15:52:16.635871Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> On 23 June 2023, the Russian private military company known as the Wagner Group initiated an armed conflict with the Russian Armed Forces, following increasing tensions between the organization's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD). Wagner personnel have said that corruption and incompetency in the MoD has squandered progress after initial successes in the invasion of Ukraine, while Russian president Vladimir Putin and other officials have denounced the groups' attacks as treasonous acts of opportunism and seizure of power.\n\n> Prigozhin described the rebellion as revenge for what he said was an attack on his forces by the ministry. He dismissed the Russian government's justification for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, blamed the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu for Russian military failures, and accused him of conducting the war for the benefit of Russian elites. Prigozhin's forces took Rostov-on-Don with its key military headquarters, and reportedly advanced towards Voronezh, and then Lipetsk, in the direction of Moscow.\n\n> In response, the Federal Security Service (FSB) opened a criminal case against Prigozhin for \"inciting an armed revolt\". In a televised address, President Putin called Wagner's actions 'treason' and vowed to suppress the mutiny\n\n> Putin vowed to retain control yet additionally lamented a \"mortal blow\". ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion))\n\nFrom [Jennifer Caferella](https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella) with The Institute for the Study of War on Twitter:\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Early SITREP as of approx 1000 EDT on June 24<br /><br />-Wagner controls <a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rostov?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Rostov</a><br /><br />-<a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Wagner?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Wagner</a> advancing north past Voronezh which they seem to have bypassed at least partially. En route to <a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Moscow?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Moscow</a><br /><br />-No major confirmed ground clashes yet. Some unconfirmed reports of airstrikes & at least one…</p>— Jennifer Cafarella (@JennyCafarella) <a href=\"https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1672605342155284480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 24, 2023</a></blockquote>", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, before 8pm ET on June 30, 2023, any of the following sources state that the Wagner Group, or forces aligned with the Wagner Group, control any part of Moscow:\n\n- The Economist\n- The New York Times\n- Reuters\n- The Associated Press\n- The Guardian\n- The BBC\n- Al Jazeera\n- South China Morning Post\n- [The Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/)\n- [International Crisis Group](https://www.crisisgroup.org/)", "fine_print": "- For the purposes of this question, \"any part of Moscow\" means an area equivalent to 1 city block.\n- If there are reports of Wagner control of part of Moscow, the question resolves **Yes** unless those reports specifically state that the area of control is obviously smaller than a city block (e.g. a single building). 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Wagner personnel have said that corruption and incompetency in the MoD has squandered progress after initial successes in the invasion of Ukraine, while Russian president Vladimir Putin and other officials have denounced the groups' attacks as treasonous acts of opportunism and seizure of power.\n\n> Prigozhin described the rebellion as revenge for what he said was an attack on his forces by the ministry. He dismissed the Russian government's justification for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, blamed the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu for Russian military failures, and accused him of conducting the war for the benefit of Russian elites. Prigozhin's forces took Rostov-on-Don with its key military headquarters, and reportedly advanced towards Voronezh, and then Lipetsk, in the direction of Moscow.\n\n> In response, the Federal Security Service (FSB) opened a criminal case against Prigozhin for \"inciting an armed revolt\". In a televised address, President Putin called Wagner's actions 'treason' and vowed to suppress the mutiny\n\n> Putin vowed to retain control yet additionally lamented a \"mortal blow\". ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion))\n\nFrom [Jennifer Caferella](https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella) with The Institute for the Study of War on Twitter:\n\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Early SITREP as of approx 1000 EDT on June 24<br /><br />-Wagner controls <a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rostov?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Rostov</a><br /><br />-<a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Wagner?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Wagner</a> advancing north past Voronezh which they seem to have bypassed at least partially. En route to <a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Moscow?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Moscow</a><br /><br />-No major confirmed ground clashes yet. Some unconfirmed reports of airstrikes & at least one…</p>— Jennifer Cafarella (@JennyCafarella) <a href=\"https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1672605342155284480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 24, 2023</a></blockquote>" }, { "id": 17569, "title": "Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?", "short_title": "Prigozhin leads Wagner on June 30, 2023?", "url_title": "Prigozhin leads Wagner on June 30, 2023?", "slug": "prigozhin-leads-wagner-on-june-30-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-24T00:41:08.458957Z", "published_at": "2023-06-24T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.137956Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-24T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-24T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 125, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17569, "title": "Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-24T00:41:08.458957Z", "open_time": "2023-06-24T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-24T15:04:54.983489Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-24T15:04:54.983489Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> On 23 June 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin alleged that soldiers of the Russian Ministry of Defense were shelling his positions. Prigozhin promised to take revenge on the leadership of the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin said the \"evil\" in the military leadership must be stopped and vowed to \"March for Justice\". ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_mutiny))\n\nSome Russia observers described Prigozhin's actions as an [armed mutiny](https://meduza.io/en/live/2023/06/23/yevgeny-prigozhin-s-coup). Russian security services [called](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-russia-nuclear-647a545db4e4628676ff7db5b1bded34) for Prigozhin's arrest.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, on June 30 at 7pm ET, Wikipedia lists Yevgeny Prigozhin as the [primary active leader of the Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group) AND Prigozhin is not in Russian custody.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17569, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688147090.702034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688147090.702034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9708935078954215 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.02650278513103406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003389902834636595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04706143124907007, 0.0001615250781465044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013237715520918849, 0.0, 0.0018708537491927582, 0.00627706671076367, 0.0003294578190198636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015186642282819212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.002770195827676131, 0.08521805108287933, 0.0006420844392293363, 0.005190405871074167, 0.01641972249325137, 0.024797185653831804, 0.03904322339774103, 0.0, 0.1067436488518837, 0.012301797311731453, 0.0, 7.882431206593951e-05, 0.0, 0.008075000781306439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1372512433828844, 0.007783224494865335, 0.1315190964923738, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1970376399871908, 0.006111534710645336, 0.15774280159063192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5156005099027082, 0.0, 0.6198489091920256, 0.11301084002370165, 0.0, 0.422815641397109, 0.6563232732899976, 1.0271676294359033, 1.0033398730315055, 15.458870103650332 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.163327347517146, "coverage": 0.9998899193188633, "baseline_score": 56.6236956494374, "spot_peer_score": 12.171178039162262, "peer_archived_score": 22.163327347517146, "baseline_archived_score": 56.6236956494374, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.171178039162262 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688147090.72517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688147090.72517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 125, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.014547753770022376, 0.9854522462299776 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 507, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> On 23 June 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin alleged that soldiers of the Russian Ministry of Defense were shelling his positions. Prigozhin promised to take revenge on the leadership of the Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin said the \"evil\" in the military leadership must be stopped and vowed to \"March for Justice\". ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_mutiny))\n\nSome Russia observers described Prigozhin's actions as an [armed mutiny](https://meduza.io/en/live/2023/06/23/yevgeny-prigozhin-s-coup). Russian security services [called](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-war-russia-nuclear-647a545db4e4628676ff7db5b1bded34) for Prigozhin's arrest." }, { "id": 17554, "title": "Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?", "short_title": "Black Sea Grain Deal Extended in July 2023?", "url_title": "Black Sea Grain Deal Extended in July 2023?", "slug": "black-sea-grain-deal-extended-in-july-2023", "author_id": 128451, "author_username": "Onikolenko", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-22T13:19:50.711597Z", "published_at": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.242453Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-17T13:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-17T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-17T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-17T13:40:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", 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"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17554, "title": "Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-22T13:19:50.711597Z", "open_time": "2023-07-04T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-05T06:35:02.519830Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-05T06:35:02.519830Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-17T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-17T13:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-17T13:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-17T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-17T13:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) both countries agreed to the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://unctad.org/news/black-sea-grain-initiative-what-it-and-why-its-important-world), which [Wikipedia describes as follows](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative):\n\n>The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February [2022] led to a complete halt of maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, previously a major exporter via the Black Sea. Additionally Russia temporarily halted its grain exports, further exacerbating the situation. This resulted in a rise in world food prices and the threat of famine in lower-income countries, and accusation that Russia weaponizing food supplies. To address the issue, discussions began in April, hosted by Turkey (which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea) and supported by the UN. The resulting agreement was signed in Istanbul on 22 July 2022, valid for a period of 120 days. The July agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the 2022 food crisis. A joint coordination and inspection center was set up in Turkey, with the UN serving as secretariat.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>The original agreement was set to expire on 19 November 2022. Russia suspended its participation in the agreement for several days due to a drone attack on Russian naval ships elsewhere in the Black Sea, but rejoined following mediation. On 17 November 2022, the UN and Ukraine announced that the agreement had been extended for a further 120 days. In March 2023, Turkey and the UN announced that they secured a second extension for at least another 60 days. In May 2023, the deal was once again extended for 60 days, expiring on 18 July.\n\nAs July 18th approaches some have [speculated on the continuation of the deal](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraine-999-certain-russia-will-quit-black-sea-grain-deal-july-envoy-2023-06-22/):\n\n>Russia is 99.9% certain to quit a UN-brokered deal on the safe wartime passage of Black Sea grain next month because it no longer needs Ukrainian ports to export ammonia, a senior Ukrainian diplomat said.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Moscow has threatened not to extend the agreement beyond 18 July unless a series of demands, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertiliser exports, are met.\n>\n>The Black Sea export deal also allows for the safe export of ammonia - an important ingredient in nitrate fertiliser - but none has been shipped under the initiative.\n>\n>Russia has been pushing for the resumption of ammonia supplies via a pipeline through Ukraine to the Black Sea port of Odesa that has lain idle since last year, Reuters reports.\n>\n>Olha Trofimtseva, Ukraine’s foreign ministry ambassador at large, said Russian ammonia producer Uralchem had found an alternative route and does not need to export ammonia via Odesa.\n>\n>“The grain corridor. 99.9% that Russia will leave it in July,” Trofimtseva was reported to have said on Telegram late on Wednesday.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 19, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been extended beyond the current end date of July 18, 2023. To qualify, both Ukraine and Russia must agree to the extension; if it is reported that the deal has been extended but either Ukraine or Russia is no longer a party to the agreement then the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will still resolve as **Yes** even if the extension is reported to alter the [original terms](https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/resources), so long as credible sources refer to the Black Sea Grain Initiative as being extended. If there are conflicting reports or statements Metaculus will rely primarily on official statements from the United Nations and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the situation is unclear.", "post_id": 17554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689631055.350168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 209, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689631055.350168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 209, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.058489294488722615 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.882884344865904, 11.390273282967215, 2.271006989528028, 1.7568812413710466, 0.11433453991398454, 1.5064239095772045, 0.5485779830548743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021225413872789332, 0.6372152927269646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009977318696934674, 0.11907469557707885, 0.0, 1.682355315882294e-05, 0.0, 0.006943152795693355, 0.00010460390517390767, 0.6923027503420459, 0.0, 2.976443319409988e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 3.9242108325596365e-05, 0.0, 0.007710523089057737, 0.0051195812833981676, 0.0, 0.466108070523243, 0.00040018536164186143, 0.0, 0.31610168221829366, 0.0, 1.000010576962249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00878719080177634, 0.0, 0.004748982250895249, 0.00021244396578389607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001355707884799575, 0.00039391597186884115, 0.0, 4.610005846222644e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004236720841086483, 0.00029157270993357724, 0.0008755714424304616, 0.016440330493698977, 0.0, 0.0012176097024486127, 0.0013729106315652625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013839349549090924, 0.01558192890777613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006200164903528799, 0.009660753161124493, 0.010180459479371892, 0.3824557846699394, 0.00013788811921248815, 3.664653754303084e-05, 0.01601358973353601, 0.15152158259223067, 0.000125952372343032, 2.5321696803091698e-05, 0.0, 0.007503840552109004, 0.0004645216870983727, 7.81537674128247e-05, 0.00016672037078392207, 0.003037932003795276, 0.007751894681928811, 0.0, 0.00019534320677534585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038143873981652506, 0.004035761042330904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009040692211598578 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.815652600867802, "coverage": 0.9736166105546191, "baseline_score": -6.07889079253131, "spot_peer_score": 16.994402001992718, "peer_archived_score": 6.815652600867802, "baseline_archived_score": -6.07889079253131, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.994402001992718 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689592823.917259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689592823.917259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9604114078170173, 0.0395885921829827 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) both countries agreed to the [Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://unctad.org/news/black-sea-grain-initiative-what-it-and-why-its-important-world), which [Wikipedia describes as follows](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative):\n\n>The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February [2022] led to a complete halt of maritime grain shipments from Ukraine, previously a major exporter via the Black Sea. Additionally Russia temporarily halted its grain exports, further exacerbating the situation. This resulted in a rise in world food prices and the threat of famine in lower-income countries, and accusation that Russia weaponizing food supplies. To address the issue, discussions began in April, hosted by Turkey (which controls the maritime routes from the Black Sea) and supported by the UN. The resulting agreement was signed in Istanbul on 22 July 2022, valid for a period of 120 days. The July agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the 2022 food crisis. A joint coordination and inspection center was set up in Turkey, with the UN serving as secretariat.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>The original agreement was set to expire on 19 November 2022. Russia suspended its participation in the agreement for several days due to a drone attack on Russian naval ships elsewhere in the Black Sea, but rejoined following mediation. On 17 November 2022, the UN and Ukraine announced that the agreement had been extended for a further 120 days. In March 2023, Turkey and the UN announced that they secured a second extension for at least another 60 days. In May 2023, the deal was once again extended for 60 days, expiring on 18 July.\n\nAs July 18th approaches some have [speculated on the continuation of the deal](https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraine-999-certain-russia-will-quit-black-sea-grain-deal-july-envoy-2023-06-22/):\n\n>Russia is 99.9% certain to quit a UN-brokered deal on the safe wartime passage of Black Sea grain next month because it no longer needs Ukrainian ports to export ammonia, a senior Ukrainian diplomat said.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Moscow has threatened not to extend the agreement beyond 18 July unless a series of demands, including the removal of obstacles to Russian grain and fertiliser exports, are met.\n>\n>The Black Sea export deal also allows for the safe export of ammonia - an important ingredient in nitrate fertiliser - but none has been shipped under the initiative.\n>\n>Russia has been pushing for the resumption of ammonia supplies via a pipeline through Ukraine to the Black Sea port of Odesa that has lain idle since last year, Reuters reports.\n>\n>Olha Trofimtseva, Ukraine’s foreign ministry ambassador at large, said Russian ammonia producer Uralchem had found an alternative route and does not need to export ammonia via Odesa.\n>\n>“The grain corridor. 99.9% that Russia will leave it in July,” Trofimtseva was reported to have said on Telegram late on Wednesday." }, { "id": 17548, "title": "Will Waltine Nauta receive a more severe sentence than Donald Trump in \"United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta\"?", "short_title": "Nauta more severe sentence than Trump?", "url_title": "Nauta more severe sentence than Trump?", "slug": "nauta-more-severe-sentence-than-trump", "author_id": 101938, "author_username": "JohnMcConnaughey", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-21T05:05:37.210463Z", "published_at": "2023-07-08T21:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.533492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-08T21:31:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-15T17:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-20T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T17:18:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-08T21:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17548, "title": "Will Waltine Nauta receive a more severe sentence than Donald Trump in \"United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta\"?", "created_at": "2023-06-21T05:05:37.210463Z", "open_time": "2023-07-08T21:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-10T21:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-10T21:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-20T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T17:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-15T17:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-20T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-15T17:18:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The federal criminal case ***United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta*** will be heard in the United States district Court for the Southern District of Florida.\n\nThe case brings [37 charges](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/06/09/trump-charges-classified-documents/) against Donald Trump, including 31 counts related to the Espionage Act, 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice, and one count of making false statements.\n\nThe case brings [6 charges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump) against Nauta, including 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice and witholding documents, and one count of making false statements.\n\nBoth Trump and Nauta have pleaded not guilty.\n\n-----\n\n[Waltine Nauta](https://www.bbc.com/news/65862112) was with the US Navy and stationed as a valet in the White House during Trump’s presidency, and then at Mar-a-Lago. After Trump lost the 2020 election, Nauta left the military to work for a Trump political action committee, and has been working for Trump at Mar-a-Lago.\n\nAccording to the [indictment](https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf), Nauta moved classified documents under Trumps direction, observed and photographed documents he saw were classified, and lied about it to investigators.\n\n[Aileen Cannon](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/10/who-is-aileen-cannon-florida-judge-trump-documents-case) is a Trump appointed judge and has been assigned to the classified documents case. \n\nPreviously she has [ruled in the former president’s favor](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/trump-documents-judge-aileen-cannon.html) when his legal team argued that he retained his executive privilege after leaving office, maintaining the right to shield at least some of the documents from review. She appointed a special master in the case and temporarily halted FBI access to classified documents taken in a court-approved search. Her ruling slowed down the government’s investigation, but a conservative-leaning federal appeals court later struck down her decision.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if before January 20, 2026, any of the following occur in the federal criminal case of *[United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump)*:\n\n1. Waltine Nauta receives a longer prison sentence than Donald Trump.\n2. Neither Trump nor Nauta receive a prison sentence, but Nauta receives a greater fine, longer probation, more time under house arrest, or more community service time than Trump.\n3.\tNauta receives a prison sentence, but Trump receives house arrest or other non-prison confinement, even if for a longer period of time.\n\nThe question is **annulled** if any of the following occur:\n\n1. \tBoth defendants are acquitted.\n2. The case is dismissed for both defendants.\n3. One defendant, (but not both), enters into a plea deal for a lighter sentence, or;\n4. Verdicts have not been issued for either Nauta or Trump.", "fine_print": "This question only considers the sentence, or lack thereof, in this case. A pardon, or commutation of the sentence for either defendant, does not affect the outcome. If the case *United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta* is split into multiple separate cases, then the outcome of each case will be added and compared. Other cases brought against either Donald Trump or Waltine Nauta will not be considered for the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 17548, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718977292.322259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.432450570974278 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718977292.322259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.432450570974278 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5675494290257219, 0.432450570974278 ], "means": [ 0.4130291790531369 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2111639770944125, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1067464588544436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.15331133925621562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2467065163784336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721115695.035636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721115695.035636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6831941976339411, 0.3168058023660589 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The federal criminal case ***United States v. Donald J. Trump and Waltine Nauta*** will be heard in the United States district Court for the Southern District of Florida.\n\nThe case brings [37 charges](https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/06/09/trump-charges-classified-documents/) against Donald Trump, including 31 counts related to the Espionage Act, 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice, and one count of making false statements.\n\nThe case brings [6 charges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump) against Nauta, including 5 counts related to conspiracy to obstruct justice and witholding documents, and one count of making false statements.\n\nBoth Trump and Nauta have pleaded not guilty.\n\n-----\n\n[Waltine Nauta](https://www.bbc.com/news/65862112) was with the US Navy and stationed as a valet in the White House during Trump’s presidency, and then at Mar-a-Lago. After Trump lost the 2020 election, Nauta left the military to work for a Trump political action committee, and has been working for Trump at Mar-a-Lago.\n\nAccording to the [indictment](https://www.justice.gov/storage/US_v_Trump-Nauta_23-80101.pdf), Nauta moved classified documents under Trumps direction, observed and photographed documents he saw were classified, and lied about it to investigators.\n\n[Aileen Cannon](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/10/who-is-aileen-cannon-florida-judge-trump-documents-case) is a Trump appointed judge and has been assigned to the classified documents case. \n\nPreviously she has [ruled in the former president’s favor](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/us/politics/trump-documents-judge-aileen-cannon.html) when his legal team argued that he retained his executive privilege after leaving office, maintaining the right to shield at least some of the documents from review. She appointed a special master in the case and temporarily halted FBI access to classified documents taken in a court-approved search. Her ruling slowed down the government’s investigation, but a conservative-leaning federal appeals court later struck down her decision." }, { "id": 17547, "title": "Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?", "short_title": "Titan recovered intact and soon?", "url_title": "Titan recovered intact and soon?", "slug": "titan-recovered-intact-and-soon", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-21T01:56:19.253259Z", "published_at": "2023-06-21T02:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.886520Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-21T02:16:44.260896Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-22T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-22T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-22T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-22T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-21T02:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17547, "title": "Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?", "created_at": "2023-06-21T01:56:19.253259Z", "open_time": "2023-06-21T02:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-21T02:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-21T02:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-22T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-22T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-22T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-22T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-22T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From Wikipedia: On June 18, 2023, the Titan, a submersible operated by OceanGate Expeditions, went missing in the North Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Newfoundland in Canada. 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This upward surge has elevated the company's market capitalization to over $850 billion.\n\nHowever, this current valuation still falls short of Tesla's all-time high in 2021, when the company hit a staggering market cap of over $1.2 trillion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total market capitalization of Tesla (TSLA) is greater than $1 trillion (USD) at any time between June 20, 2023 to July 1, 2023. \n\nData for market capitalization will come from [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/). 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"continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Voicebox](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/voicebox-generative-ai-model-speech/) is a generative AI model for speech developed by Meta AI. The model is unique in its ability to generalize to speech-generation tasks it was not specifically trained to accomplish. The model can synthesize speech across six languages, perform noise removal, content editing, style conversion, and diverse sample generation. Voicebox uses a method called Flow Matching, which significantly improves upon diffusion models and outperforms the current state of the art English model, VALL-E, on zero-shot text-to-speech.\n\nDespite its potential, Meta has decided not to make the Voicebox model or code publicly available \"because of the potential risks of misuse\". However, in March 2023, Meta's large language model, LLaMA, was [leaked online within a week of it's release](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/8/23629362/meta-ai-language-model-llama-leak-online-misuse).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if by July 1, 2023, credible media or tech industry reports or the official statements from Meta AI confirm that the Voicebox AI model or its code has been made publicly available, through a leak, hack, or something similar. The final determination of resolution will be made by Metaculus admins based on the evidence available at the time of resolution.\n\nHere \"publicly available\" means some people not affiliated with Meta or Meta's partners can access Voicebox. Need not be legal access if access is attained due to a leak, as long as that access is widely available.", "fine_print": "If the public thing is not called \"Voicebox\" but admins conclude it is Voicebox or directly derived from it, this still resolves positively.", "post_id": 17530, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688144582.581585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688144582.581585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03201033895728832 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.518110797343043, 7.185646544668233, 0.19438302630012322, 0.10813918602659756, 0.6266048346160128, 0.4208715691325723, 0.008832281468067818, 0.3745786180276855, 0.09467292063321112, 0.0, 0.28755588011094707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00910251771749428, 0.010028489695676875, 0.2410038138500024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03414921886677928, 0.0, 0.174353459002126, 0.027260261306647233, 0.0, 0.05361548124094313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06229464593224653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002626729901533664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006759718771926677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002588766022538979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2665441514110732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.485127099449995, "coverage": 0.9998608007813612, "baseline_score": 81.24754828428078, "spot_peer_score": -0.5667670124755486, "peer_archived_score": 7.485127099449995, "baseline_archived_score": 81.24754828428078, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.5667670124755486 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688144582.601909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688144582.601909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 164, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Voicebox](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/voicebox-generative-ai-model-speech/) is a generative AI model for speech developed by Meta AI. The model is unique in its ability to generalize to speech-generation tasks it was not specifically trained to accomplish. The model can synthesize speech across six languages, perform noise removal, content editing, style conversion, and diverse sample generation. Voicebox uses a method called Flow Matching, which significantly improves upon diffusion models and outperforms the current state of the art English model, VALL-E, on zero-shot text-to-speech.\n\nDespite its potential, Meta has decided not to make the Voicebox model or code publicly available \"because of the potential risks of misuse\". However, in March 2023, Meta's large language model, LLaMA, was [leaked online within a week of it's release](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/8/23629362/meta-ai-language-model-llama-leak-online-misuse)." }, { "id": 17520, "title": "Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?", "short_title": "White-collar job loss in US before 2026", "url_title": "White-collar job loss in US before 2026", "slug": "white-collar-job-loss-in-us-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-18T21:19:19.730716Z", "published_at": "2023-06-20T08:35:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T07:44:55.021221Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-20T08:35:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-20T08:35:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32620, "name": "US Employment Projections", "type": "community", "slug": "employment", "description": "Questions on US employment are organized according to the following categories: \n\n#### **High-level occupation projections**\n\n###### • [What percentage of the US workforce will be in computer specialist roles in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8936/us-workforce-as-it-specialists-in-2050/)- 
• [What percentage of the US workforce will be musicians or writers in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8929/us-workforce-writersmusicians-in-2050/)- 
• [How many people will work in these AI-automatable jobs in the US in May 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21427/employment-in-ai-automatable-jobs/)- 
• [What percentage of the US workforce will be in building maintenance or construction trades in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8937/us-workforce-in-construction-trades-in-2050/)- 
• [Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17520/white-collar-job-loss-in-us-before-2026/)- 
• [What percentage of the US workforce will be employed in transportation and material moving occupations in the following years? (e.g. truck drivers, taxi drivers, stockers and order fillers, etc.)](https://www.metaculus.com/c/employment/31361/us-transportation-employment-from-2025-to-2050/)\n\n#### **Detailed occupation projections**\n\n###### • [How many software developers will there be in the US in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16746/number-of-software-developers-in-the-us/)- 
• [How many medical scientist jobs will there be in the US in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11494/number-of-medical-scientist-jobs-in-us-2030/#comment-243670)- 
• [How many epidemiologist jobs will there be in the US in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11495/number-of-epidemiologist-jobs-in-us-2030/)\n\n#### **Industry employment projections**\n\n###### • [How many people will be employed in the electric vehicle industry in the United States in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14754/number-of-ev-industry-employees/)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 235855, "username": "2120eth", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ] }, "question": { "id": 17520, "title": "Will the percent of U.S. workers employed in white-collar jobs drop at least 2 percentage points below the 2022 level before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-06-18T21:19:19.730716Z", "open_time": "2023-06-20T08:35:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-21T16:22:17.607000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-21T16:22:17.607000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As [The Economist reported in June 2023](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/15/ai-is-not-yet-killing-jobs), the percent of US workers who are white-collar, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has been steadily rising from ~57% in 1985 to ~62% in 2022. Yet, as they write,\n\n> After astonishing breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, many people worry that they will end up on the economic scrapheap. Global Google searches for “is my job safe?” have doubled in recent months, as people fear that they will be replaced with large language models (llms). Some evidence suggests that widespread disruption is coming. In a recent paper Tyna Eloundou of Openai and colleagues say that “around 80% of the us workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of llms”.\n\nThe % in white-collar jobs was last below 60.0% briefly in 2007, and before that, in the late 1990s.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if, in any quarter between Q2 2023 and Q4 2025 inclusive, BLS reports the percent of US employed persons who are employed in white-collar jobs is less than or equal to 60.0%, and **NO** otherwise. For the purposes of this question, \"white-collar jobs\" will be defined as the total found by summing the following BLS occupations:\n\n* Management, professional, and related occupations\n* Sales and office occupations\n\nResolution will be determined according to the percentages found from the [quarterly averages reported in the BLS Current Population Survey](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpsee_e13.htm), computed as the sum of the employment for the above occupations divided by the total for the quarter.", "fine_print": "* If the names of the occupations listed above are modified or changed Metaculus may determine the most appropriate new occupations or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.\n* The occupations and resolution mechanism listed above will be used for resolution regardless of any methodological changes BLS implements.", "post_id": 17520, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758521903.138482, "end_time": 1758661964.999207, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758521903.138482, "end_time": 1758661964.999207, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.13166598815754896 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0159318044991952, 1.631816638450652, 0.16824568062905945, 0.9986747543932746, 0.0, 0.7855851504763278, 0.3542447088992047, 1.4456633667815555, 1.2169951382999376, 0.0, 2.8450250911844583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07466540360106858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047802726739546664, 0.0, 0.03765850406993994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18575801079970408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013130201551318676, 0.0, 0.010606778452136844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03621693803772868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061894126969327355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.022769576841270445, 0.01917969985736262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015977422099957932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05451133392988236 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289492.966843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289492.966843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9912169805999029, 0.008783019400097016 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 202, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As [The Economist reported in June 2023](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/06/15/ai-is-not-yet-killing-jobs), the percent of US workers who are white-collar, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has been steadily rising from ~57% in 1985 to ~62% in 2022. 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Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 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"2023-10-13T13:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-13T13:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 18, 2022, Microsoft, manufacturer of the Xbox video game console, [announced](https://news.microsoft.com/2022/01/18/microsoft-to-acquire-activision-blizzard-to-bring-the-joy-and-community-of-gaming-to-everyone-across-every-device/) an agreement to acquire Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, which would make Microsoft the 3rd largest video game publisher in the world, behind Tencent and Sony. Activision Blizzard's key franchises are Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Overwatch League, Diablo, Hearthstone, and Candy Crush. \n\nAs of June 2023, the merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard faces delays and uncertainties. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) [filed a lawsuit](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/video-games/ftc-files-block-microsofts-activision-acquisition-deadline-approaches-rcna88966) on June 12, 2023, to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard, which led to a federal judge temporarily blocking the $69 billion purchase to allow more time for an antitrust review. This development is the latest in a series of antitrust challenges to the merger.\n\nThis is the [link to the merger agreement](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/718877/000110465922005154/tm223212d3_ex2-1.htm), signed by Microsoft and Activision Blizzard.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** based on a Microsoft press release stating that it has acquired Activision Blizzard. It resolves as **No** immediately upon an announcement by Microsoft that the acquisition deal has been terminated. Otherwise if no deal has been completed by December 31, 2023, this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The [merger contract](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/718877/000110465922005154/tm223212d3_ex2-1.htm)", "post_id": 17517, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697205867.070937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697205867.070937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9486858904741211 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006731217591434027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00044483911207012384, 0.0018954326705900848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012091980749280742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032507148338583335, 0.09133304969971341, 0.0, 0.15533933659248353, 0.0, 0.00230644805578227, 0.0, 0.6536807929964921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02958413324404225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046843471097372705, 0.12436328158297608, 0.006042445282083602, 0.6971043718793803, 0.012792465124422179, 0.00092497201079239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5638537408408428, 0.0, 1.074936175977055, 0.017820921846768534, 0.0, 2.8202103089977695, 0.015999109858631472, 0.7702637789587246, 0.6854720015517448, 8.1349784915446 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.282449780803108, "coverage": 0.5673643715613274, "baseline_score": 45.05880554078268, "spot_peer_score": 17.644841215667086, "peer_archived_score": 7.282449780803108, "baseline_archived_score": 45.05880554078268, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.644841215667086 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697134416.293158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697134416.293158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.017792590643697537, 0.9822074093563025 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 18, 2022, Microsoft, manufacturer of the Xbox video game console, [announced](https://news.microsoft.com/2022/01/18/microsoft-to-acquire-activision-blizzard-to-bring-the-joy-and-community-of-gaming-to-everyone-across-every-device/) an agreement to acquire Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, which would make Microsoft the 3rd largest video game publisher in the world, behind Tencent and Sony. Activision Blizzard's key franchises are Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Overwatch League, Diablo, Hearthstone, and Candy Crush. \n\nAs of June 2023, the merger between Microsoft and Activision Blizzard faces delays and uncertainties. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) [filed a lawsuit](https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/video-games/ftc-files-block-microsofts-activision-acquisition-deadline-approaches-rcna88966) on June 12, 2023, to block Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard, which led to a federal judge temporarily blocking the $69 billion purchase to allow more time for an antitrust review. 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China's team has dominated the last few years. At last year's (63rd) IMO competition, China had the [top score](https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2022) of 252 points achieving the maximum allowed score. South Korea came in second with 208 and the US team had 207 for 3rd. \n\nThe 2023 IMO will be held from July 2 to July 13, 2023 in Chiba, Japan.\n\n> The competition consists of 6 problems. The competition is held over two consecutive days with 3 problems each; each day the contestants have four-and-a-half hours to solve three problems. Each problem is worth 7 points for a maximum total score of 42 points. Calculators are not allowed. The problems chosen are from various areas of secondary school mathematics, broadly classifiable as geometry, number theory, algebra, and combinatorics. They require no knowledge of higher mathematics such as calculus and analysis, and solutions are often elementary. However, they are usually disguised so as to make the solutions difficult. The problems given in the IMO are largely designed to require creativity and the ability to solve problems quickly. Thus, the prominently featured problems are algebraic inequalities, complex numbers, and construction-oriented geometrical problems, though in recent years, the latter has not been as popular as before because of the algorithmic use of theorems like Muirhead's Inequality, and Complex/Analytic Bash to solve problems. [(Wikipedia)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Mathematical_Olympiad)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if China has the most points or is tied for the highest point total at the end of the 2023 International Math Olympiad, as reported on the IMO [website](imo-official.org).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17516, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689173434.529413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689173434.529413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7643110168863484 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6525656508175627, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 1.0033024326227087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.2743287127404717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5163362132374755, 0.7287651222345652, 0.8117493037268142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.05092351375560071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9019935026160223 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.824607941722288, "coverage": 0.9992428261778421, "baseline_score": 62.315830815696515, "spot_peer_score": 23.52487891895091, "peer_archived_score": 3.824607941722288, "baseline_archived_score": 62.315830815696515, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.52487891895091 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1689173434.552332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1689173434.552332, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22933528852327212, 0.7706647114767279 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Math Olympiad (IMO)](https://imo2023.jp/en/) is the oldest international science Olympiad for pre-college students. China's team has dominated the last few years. At last year's (63rd) IMO competition, China had the [top score](https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2022) of 252 points achieving the maximum allowed score. South Korea came in second with 208 and the US team had 207 for 3rd. \n\nThe 2023 IMO will be held from July 2 to July 13, 2023 in Chiba, Japan.\n\n> The competition consists of 6 problems. The competition is held over two consecutive days with 3 problems each; each day the contestants have four-and-a-half hours to solve three problems. Each problem is worth 7 points for a maximum total score of 42 points. Calculators are not allowed. The problems chosen are from various areas of secondary school mathematics, broadly classifiable as geometry, number theory, algebra, and combinatorics. They require no knowledge of higher mathematics such as calculus and analysis, and solutions are often elementary. However, they are usually disguised so as to make the solutions difficult. The problems given in the IMO are largely designed to require creativity and the ability to solve problems quickly. Thus, the prominently featured problems are algebraic inequalities, complex numbers, and construction-oriented geometrical problems, though in recent years, the latter has not been as popular as before because of the algorithmic use of theorems like Muirhead's Inequality, and Complex/Analytic Bash to solve problems. [(Wikipedia)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Mathematical_Olympiad)" }, { "id": 17508, "title": "Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?", "short_title": "Ireland Abandons Neutrality before 2030?", "url_title": "Ireland Abandons Neutrality before 2030?", "slug": "ireland-abandons-neutrality-before-2030", "author_id": 146248, "author_username": "GOLDEN-BLUE", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-17T08:44:34.534876Z", "published_at": "2023-06-22T16:41:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.460553Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-22T16:41:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-22T16:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17508, "title": "Will the Republic of Ireland abandon the policy of military neutrality before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-06-17T08:44:34.534876Z", "open_time": "2023-06-22T16:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-24T16:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-24T16:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Irish neutrality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_neutrality) is a cornerstone policy that has shaped the Republic of Ireland since the nation gained its independence in 1922. This policy is deeply ingrained in the Irish psyche and is anchored in the country's constitution, aiming to preserve national sovereignty, promote international peace, and avoid entanglements in international conflicts. During World War II, despite the immense global pressure, [Ireland maintained its neutral stance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emergency_(Ireland)), showcasing a persistent commitment to this policy. It's a stance that has given the small nation a distinct voice in international relations and a reputation as a peacekeeping nation under the auspices of the UN.\n\nHowever, global geopolitics and regional stability concerns, particularly those in the wake of Russia's war on Ukraine, are challenging this long-standing policy, and [Ireland's stance towards NATO has experienced a substantial shift](https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/10/18/public-divided-on-nato-membership-survey-finds/). Facing the rising tensions and insecurity in Europe, the Irish government has found itself reassessing its traditionally neutral position. With escalating aggression from Russia, Ireland is drawn closer to NATO, viewing it as a platform for ensuring European security. This trend marks a significant divergence from historical norms and is stirring a lively debate domestically.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, at any time before midnight UTC on 1 Jan 2030, any of the following occur:\n\n- The government of the \"Republic of Ireland\" (Ireland) makes a public declaration that Ireland is no longer militarily neutral;\n- Ireland joins a military alliance such as NATO; or\n- Ireland is directly involved in a military conflict with >=1000 deaths, except as part of a United Nations peacekeeping force (e.g. UNMIK) or as the defender against military aggression as reported by >=3 [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) originating from states/organisations uninvolved with the conflict.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17508, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757925005.398676, "end_time": 1759813722.326717, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18657416214225636 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757925005.398676, "end_time": 1759813722.326717, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18657416214225636 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.26975290674490426 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 1.040387528095117, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.2748574657272404, 0.3108648595307786, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 1.0284544187376328, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 1.891195463646416, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289036.274801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289036.274801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9288054836350031, 0.0711945163649969 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Irish neutrality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_neutrality) is a cornerstone policy that has shaped the Republic of Ireland since the nation gained its independence in 1922. This policy is deeply ingrained in the Irish psyche and is anchored in the country's constitution, aiming to preserve national sovereignty, promote international peace, and avoid entanglements in international conflicts. During World War II, despite the immense global pressure, [Ireland maintained its neutral stance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Emergency_(Ireland)), showcasing a persistent commitment to this policy. It's a stance that has given the small nation a distinct voice in international relations and a reputation as a peacekeeping nation under the auspices of the UN.\n\nHowever, global geopolitics and regional stability concerns, particularly those in the wake of Russia's war on Ukraine, are challenging this long-standing policy, and [Ireland's stance towards NATO has experienced a substantial shift](https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2022/10/18/public-divided-on-nato-membership-survey-finds/). Facing the rising tensions and insecurity in Europe, the Irish government has found itself reassessing its traditionally neutral position. With escalating aggression from Russia, Ireland is drawn closer to NATO, viewing it as a platform for ensuring European security. This trend marks a significant divergence from historical norms and is stirring a lively debate domestically." } ] }
