Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3220
{ "count": 6360, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3240", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3200", "results": [ { "id": 20925, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "short_title": "Natural Pandemic to cause (near) extinction?", "url_title": "Natural Pandemic to cause (near) extinction?", "slug": "natural-pandemic-to-cause-near-extinction", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104761, "username": "Tamay" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-05T04:53:32.359114Z", "published_at": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T03:37:27.552699Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:06:36.987803Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:06:36.987803Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20925, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "created_at": "2024-01-05T04:53:32.359114Z", "open_time": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-06T14:43:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-06T14:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n\nIn the [headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/), a global catastrophe is defined as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. On this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe.\n\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on that definition, as it is [estimated](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history) that it killed between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years, that is between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2100 a global natural pandemic catastrophe that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) occurs, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves **No** if such a global natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. The question will be **Annulled** if no such global natural pandemic catastrophe occurs before 2100.\n\nResolution requires there to be a high degree of confidence that the relevant pathogens have natural origins, as opposed to being artificially created, modified, or enhanced in a laboratory setting, such as through Gain of Function research. Announcements to that effect from two major institutions (e.g., WHO, CDC) will suffice if no major institutions announce that there is a significant probability that the pathogen is engineered. For the purpose of this question, \"years\" are defined as consecutive calendar years.", "fine_print": "This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. For a list of other questions in the series see the background of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/).\n\nPopulation estimates would come from the UN or its successor. If no such estimates are published, admins might consult other reputable sources.", "post_id": 20925, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762918636.659622, "end_time": 1951273195.425643, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0135010872 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762918636.659622, "end_time": 1951273195.425643, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0135010872 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.035507143225813116 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.411737749025979, 3.337571944552345, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287754.146709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287754.146709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9982381924930981, 0.0017618075069019564 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n\nIn the [headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/), a global catastrophe is defined as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. On this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe.\n\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on that definition, as it is [estimated](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history) that it killed between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years, that is between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time." }, { "id": 20919, "title": "Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Successful Moon Landings in Early 2024?", "url_title": "Successful Moon Landings in Early 2024?", "slug": "successful-moon-landings-in-early-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-04T23:34:19.702724Z", "published_at": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.376784Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 277, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20919, "title": "Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-04T23:34:19.702724Z", "open_time": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-11T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-11T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-20T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-20T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are three moon lander missions scheduled in early 2024, two by private companies and [one by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Company](https://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-landing-try-january-2024) (JAXA). Either private landing could potentially represent the [first ever successful private moon landing](https://www.space.com/astrobotic-peregrine-private-moon-lander-risks-reward), following [two previous attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#:~:text=Two%20organizations%20have%20attempted%20but%20failed%20to%20achieve%20soft%20landings%3A%20Israeli%20private%20space%20agency%20SpaceIL%20with%20their%20Beresheet%20spacecraft%2C%20and%20Japanese%20company%20ispace%27s%20Hakuto%2DR%20Mission%201.),\n\nSee below for a table with information regarding the missions and their scheduled dates as of January 5, 2024. Note that Intuitive Machines' IM-1 mission was originally scheduled for no earlier than (NET) January 12, 2024, but [was delayed in late December](https://www.space.com/spacex-launch-intuitive-machines-private-moon-lander-delay-february) until mid-February.\n\n| Organization | Mission | Lander Payload | Announced Launch Date (NET) | Announced Land Date |\n| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| [Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) (JAXA) | [Smart Lander for Investigating Moon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon) (SLIM) | [Two small lunar rovers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon#Rovers) | [September 6, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon#Mission) (completed) | January 19, 2024 |\n| [Astrobotic Technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrobotic_Technology) | [Peregrine Mission One](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One) | [Five small Mexican Space Agency rovers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Lunar_rovers)<br />A small rover from Carnegie Mellon University<br />An array of sensors and instruments<br />[Time capsules](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Time_capsules), including cremated human remains and a physical bitcoin. | [January 8, 2024](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/companies-attempt-us-moon-landings-apollo-missions-half-106109930) | [February 23, 2024](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/companies-attempt-us-moon-landings-apollo-missions-half-106109930) |\n| [Intuitive Machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intuitive_Machines) | [IM-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#IM-1_mission) | [An array of instruments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#Payloads) for NASA and others | [Mid-February 2024](https://investors.intuitivemachines.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-machines-im-1-lunar-mission-launch-update) | [Roughly one week after launch](https://spacenews.com/intuitive-machines-delays-first-lunar-lander-launch-to-february/) |", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2024, at least two of the following listed moon missions successfully land on the moon.\n\n* Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)'s [Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon) (SLIM)\n* Astrobotic Technology's [Peregrine Mission One](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One)\n* Intuitive Machine's [IM-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#IM-1_mission)", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, a successful landing will be defined as one which results in the lander remaining intact and able to communicate with the Earth, and which does not prevent at least some of its payload from being able to carry out its intended mission.\n * For example, a landing that resulted in minor damage to the lander, its systems, or some of its payload, but some of the carried payload/equipment was still able to carry out its intended mission and communicate with Earth, would result in the question resolving as **Yes** (this does not include cases where the lander is destroyed on impact but payloads such as [time capsules](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Time_capsules) might survive impact).\n* The landers must land before March 1, 2024, 00:00 UTC occurs on Earth. Resolution will be determined based on information published before March 7, 2024, regarding whether the criteria for a successful landing have been met.", "post_id": 20919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708435189.993066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708435189.993066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.3863623826184279 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7863802348471245, 0.0017507923254573214, 0.0, 0.003232159263522038, 0.016896348308650458, 0.0, 0.007162980641513756, 0.019849710834513614, 0.0, 0.08775967686003228, 0.0, 0.005064497859462841, 0.0, 0.14450954806210053, 0.8199959812484032, 0.0295235603270856, 0.07314828828360052, 0.08160132585292665, 6.485756649792505e-05, 1.2717973052936995, 0.6115312608691672, 0.011722212474960787, 0.0009605953953489713, 0.33343379982753124, 1.7927765411651615, 0.6010206033959818, 0.9475890696843912, 0.7852639383898099, 0.0, 4.300660545565744, 0.0322173805755015, 0.27775232452902265, 1.6071537237713467, 0.6111290793294113, 0.4951273574929651, 0.06341840576178678, 0.2748800297074082, 0.017017519834341143, 0.000779791488395075, 2.2183158085702206, 0.25510906097504943, 1.619933478852991, 0.9106853040880452, 1.0813728217467262, 0.8953567807370235, 0.0, 0.8149625152409314, 0.0, 0.7131982181449822, 1.2582178858065742, 0.0, 1.2602120414470348, 0.0, 0.018422061529515928, 0.39594573581493886, 0.00036140220085834524, 0.04602102089747604, 0.0, 7.156529123733864e-06, 0.5407785541277873, 0.5550534311048547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017630114444938384, 1.3957605709199001, 0.0, 1.9323357132921226e-05, 0.0003037476707123251, 0.0, 0.22827890622179167, 4.623225050369796e-06, 0.03822664654593759, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0390112435584349, 0.0, 0.061611267171373, 1.630388567251563e-06, 0.0, 0.0012993742351993323, 0.0, 0.03415597258179905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007336438991862936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010808410011078592, 0.0, 5.53364456259575e-07, 0.0, 0.2358326528632392, 0.0, 0.0, 2.176558275098083e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027189832881252117, 0.02832347174950297 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.034602736337552, "coverage": 0.9999709675785906, "baseline_score": -82.30551302772983, "spot_peer_score": 9.141313618154367, "peer_archived_score": 13.034602736337552, "baseline_archived_score": -82.30551302772983, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.141313618154367 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708435190.111186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708435190.111186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6602954206283113, 0.33970457937168874 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 887, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are three moon lander missions scheduled in early 2024, two by private companies and [one by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Company](https://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-landing-try-january-2024) (JAXA). Either private landing could potentially represent the [first ever successful private moon landing](https://www.space.com/astrobotic-peregrine-private-moon-lander-risks-reward), following [two previous attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#:~:text=Two%20organizations%20have%20attempted%20but%20failed%20to%20achieve%20soft%20landings%3A%20Israeli%20private%20space%20agency%20SpaceIL%20with%20their%20Beresheet%20spacecraft%2C%20and%20Japanese%20company%20ispace%27s%20Hakuto%2DR%20Mission%201.),\n\nSee below for a table with information regarding the missions and their scheduled dates as of January 5, 2024. Note that Intuitive Machines' IM-1 mission was originally scheduled for no earlier than (NET) January 12, 2024, but [was delayed in late December](https://www.space.com/spacex-launch-intuitive-machines-private-moon-lander-delay-february) until mid-February.\n\n| Organization | Mission | Lander Payload | Announced Launch Date (NET) | Announced Land Date |\n| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| [Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) (JAXA) | [Smart Lander for Investigating Moon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon) (SLIM) | [Two small lunar rovers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon#Rovers) | [September 6, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon#Mission) (completed) | January 19, 2024 |\n| [Astrobotic Technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrobotic_Technology) | [Peregrine Mission One](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One) | [Five small Mexican Space Agency rovers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Lunar_rovers)<br />A small rover from Carnegie Mellon University<br />An array of sensors and instruments<br />[Time capsules](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Time_capsules), including cremated human remains and a physical bitcoin. | [January 8, 2024](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/companies-attempt-us-moon-landings-apollo-missions-half-106109930) | [February 23, 2024](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/companies-attempt-us-moon-landings-apollo-missions-half-106109930) |\n| [Intuitive Machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intuitive_Machines) | [IM-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#IM-1_mission) | [An array of instruments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#Payloads) for NASA and others | [Mid-February 2024](https://investors.intuitivemachines.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-machines-im-1-lunar-mission-launch-update) | [Roughly one week after launch](https://spacenews.com/intuitive-machines-delays-first-lunar-lander-launch-to-february/) |" }, { "id": 20917, "title": "Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?", "short_title": "Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024?", "url_title": "Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024?", "slug": "taurus-missile-for-ukraine-in-2024", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-04T20:31:26.713321Z", "published_at": "2024-02-03T21:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.375727Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-03T21:48:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20917, "title": "Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-04T20:31:26.713321Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-06T21:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-06T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T02:35:28.279659Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) cruise missile is a German-produced air-launched weapon with a declared range of 500+ km and is designed to destroy \"hard and deeply buried targets\" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to attempt to destroy the Kerch Bridge, an important logistic path of Russian forces. Due to its long range this missile, upon deployment, could also present a potential threat to the city of Moscow. \n\nAs of Oct. 31, 2023, Germany has committed [€17.1 Billion of military support](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) for Ukraine, which made it the second largest donor country after the US. Until this moment, however, Germany hasn't supplied Ukraine with their Taurus missiles despite [explicit requests](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-asks-germany-provide-taurus-long-range-missiles-berlin-2023-05-27/) from the Ukrainian government. \n\n* On 2 January, 2024, the head of the Defense Committee of Germany’s Bundestag parliament, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann [called for the transfer of the Taurus missiles](https://news.yahoo.com/bundestag-mp-calls-immediate-transfer-172600453.html) to Ukraine.\n* On 7 January 2024, Markus Söder the Minister-President of Bavaria named Taurus as [the only way out for Germany](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/internationale-politik/id_100315390/markus-soeder-fordert-fuer-ukraine-den-marschflugkoerper-taurus.html) to avoid security problems. Additionally, Joachim Gauck, the former president of Germany [accused the federal government](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ukraine/id_100311874/ukraine-krieg-joachim-gauck-kritisiert-olaf-scholz-fuer-zoegern-bei-taurus.html) of hesitant stance on arms deliveries to Ukraine\n* On 17 January 2024 German Bundestag [declined](https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2024/kw03-de-wehrbericht-2022-983206) the proposition to supply Taurus missiles for Ukraine (485 vs 178).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point in time during the year 2024, there are credible reports that Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have at least one Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile or its variant (see the Fine Print for details) or that AFU have launched one. \n\nAlternatively, the question will resolve positively if the missile is unambiguously listed on [the page dedicated to Military support for Ukraine](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992) on the German Federal Government's official site. If this page is unavailable, another page may be used as a resolution source as long as it belongs to the German Federal Government's official site and contains a list of military equipment provided to Ukraine by Germany. \n\nIf these criteria weren't met until 1 January 2025, 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "The missile in possession must be operational, meaning that a model of the missile provided for copying or studying will not trigger the resolution, and neither will a fallen on Ukrainian ground Taurus missile launched by another country.\n\nIf Germany supplies Ukraine with another long-range missile, it will qualify as the variant of the Taurus KEPD 350 as long as the following conditions are met:\n\n* The missile is an air-launched cruise missile\n* The missile is an air-to-ground missile\n* The missile's place of origin is Germany\n* The missile's range is at least 400 km (the KEPD 350K-2 variant)\n* The missile's warhead is at least 100 kg \n\nThe official missile name is not required to include the word \"Taurus\".\n\nDelivering a similarly capable missile manufactured by a third country (e.g. the [Storm Shadow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow)) will not trigger the resolution even if delivery was done by the German government.", "post_id": 20917, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735591924.967116, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735591924.967116, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.023917211796254938 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.028217388980657, 2.6043879852892498, 0.26823490850096354, 0.0, 0.7894276068810536, 0.38474358943460363, 0.0, 0.23873778929343153, 0.20842024273178694, 0.07192562504717721, 0.24026973421529557, 0.0, 0.03094679367520054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012926585093015749, 0.0, 0.0090705904541796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09551526241989404, 0.0017494230548454617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05030905064265755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00475542490027373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1162145989976784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008668798579263653, 0.0, 0.015204078447885579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02368489080579067 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 66.33269419729683, "peer_score": 22.749922202447227, "coverage": 0.99888203562469, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99888203562469, "spot_peer_score": -1.8773426885419173, "spot_baseline_score": -25.153876699596427, "baseline_archived_score": 66.33269419729683, "peer_archived_score": 22.749922202447227, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.8773426885419173, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.153876699596427 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288757.685793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288757.685793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9969928334918383, 0.003007166508161641 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) cruise missile is a German-produced air-launched weapon with a declared range of 500+ km and is designed to destroy \"hard and deeply buried targets\" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to attempt to destroy the Kerch Bridge, an important logistic path of Russian forces. Due to its long range this missile, upon deployment, could also present a potential threat to the city of Moscow. \n\nAs of Oct. 31, 2023, Germany has committed [€17.1 Billion of military support](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) for Ukraine, which made it the second largest donor country after the US. Until this moment, however, Germany hasn't supplied Ukraine with their Taurus missiles despite [explicit requests](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-asks-germany-provide-taurus-long-range-missiles-berlin-2023-05-27/) from the Ukrainian government. \n\n* On 2 January, 2024, the head of the Defense Committee of Germany’s Bundestag parliament, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann [called for the transfer of the Taurus missiles](https://news.yahoo.com/bundestag-mp-calls-immediate-transfer-172600453.html) to Ukraine.\n* On 7 January 2024, Markus Söder the Minister-President of Bavaria named Taurus as [the only way out for Germany](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/internationale-politik/id_100315390/markus-soeder-fordert-fuer-ukraine-den-marschflugkoerper-taurus.html) to avoid security problems. Additionally, Joachim Gauck, the former president of Germany [accused the federal government](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ukraine/id_100311874/ukraine-krieg-joachim-gauck-kritisiert-olaf-scholz-fuer-zoegern-bei-taurus.html) of hesitant stance on arms deliveries to Ukraine\n* On 17 January 2024 German Bundestag [declined](https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2024/kw03-de-wehrbericht-2022-983206) the proposition to supply Taurus missiles for Ukraine (485 vs 178)." }, { "id": 20895, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "short_title": "2nd Russian Mobilization in 2024?", "url_title": "2nd Russian Mobilization in 2024?", "slug": "2nd-russian-mobilization-in-2024", "author_id": 122079, "author_username": "wd28", "coauthors": [ { "id": 134915, "username": "Firenze" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-03T13:03:02.951825Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.840937Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-16T23:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 130, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20895, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "created_at": "2024-01-03T13:03:02.951825Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-26T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-26T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-16T23:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-16T23:26:11.760432Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates) (ISW) reports that a second wave of mobilization is underway in Russia. If this event does not happen, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* For this resolution, \"mobilization\" is defined as the formal conscription or summoning of reservists by the Russian government, as explicitly recognized and reported by ISW. This includes actions officially declared by the government such as a \"partial mobilization.\" However, this does not include unofficial recruitments often referred to as \"[crypto-mobilization](https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/75547/what-is-crypto-mobilization)\" or \"self-mobilization,\" or any form of volunteer enlistment. The resolution will rely solely on ISW’s characterization of the mobilization as formally acknowledged by the Russian government.\n\n* If the Institute for the Study of War writes that the next wave of mobilization has not only begun, but has already ended, then this also resolves as Yes.\n\n* ISW will be the sole source used for resolution of this question. If ISW ceases to operate or ceases to publish the relevant updates following the launch of this question, it may resolve as Annulled. Metaculus will determine appropriate resolution based on its assessment of ISW's publications. However, unless ISW’s coverage on the topic is discontinued in this manner, if no official mobilization is reported by ISW before January 1, 2025, then this question will resolve as No.", "post_id": 20895, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735384588.223201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735384588.223201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04391854689940586 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.07790923743402, 1.8968988089353016, 1.1259305765141656, 0.0, 0.16261563651991753, 0.8000486602648686, 0.31397960795989815, 0.22456070318273333, 0.20868816928326905, 0.2920149942821614, 0.8760384530366191, 0.24311673443421403, 0.08848284578231039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5434677574702889, 9.017949372969042e-05, 0.10452558961591647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18142182030359266, 0.07607279484661736, 0.020292376367099678, 0.0, 0.0009540356145073528, 0.038717996906980454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05249127920076727, 0.0, 0.06176068608466492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09889382303426979, 0.000586859480427528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018431603109556372, 0.0, 0.005348463429925001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07040757225652326, 0.0, 0.05910574656195615, 0.006811430115118837, 0.08100981758565247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06105365353032063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1310854303048187, 0.006155526908073243, 0.018963498661181577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004491483950858434, 0.013383823550694354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002203835392502228, 0.0, 0.009996656754016274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05956418633767381, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01209110827525308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018113035510220678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07896550941018672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004717024927596722 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.1800119620118, "peer_score": 44.50651840260677, "coverage": 0.9996236220349963, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996236220349963, "spot_peer_score": 14.335838629024332, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 75.1800119620118, "peer_archived_score": 44.50651840260677, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.335838629024332, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287754.546745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287754.546745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9854195269703045, 0.014580473029695451 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 313, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)" }, { "id": 20880, "title": "Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?", "short_title": "US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access?", "url_title": "US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access?", "slug": "us-restricts-chinas-cloud-compute-access", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-02T18:41:11.204801Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.446408Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T16:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T08:50:00.295434Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T08:50:00.295434Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T08:50:00.373636Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20880, "title": "Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-01-02T18:41:11.204801Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T16:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T17:06:00.916063Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the last year or so, the US government has restricted China's ability to develop cutting edge AI through [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/). However, there exists a loophole: while Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting edge AI chips, as well as the machines used to manufacture them, they are not currently restricted from buying [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing) provided by US IaaS firms who possess the exact same chips that are physically export controlled.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the US government issues some form of rule or export control that restricts Chinese firms from accessing via [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing)/infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) at least some of the same chips that they are prevented from purchasing through physical [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/). Yes resolution is triggered when a law is enacted or a [final rule](https://www.federalregister.gov/reader-aids/office-of-the-federal-register-blog/2015/03/when-does-this-rule-go-into-effect) is published that would impose such restrictions, regardless of whether or not the rule takes effect before 2025.\n\nThis question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20880, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735688345.798614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735688345.798614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07181427784417957 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.661725569018112, 0.8316021242747229, 2.1156977089487494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6620457731179527, 0.3542447088992047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4232239324214639, 0.061894126969327355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03621693803772868, 0.5577003918267847, 0.1265321246167477, 0.0, 0.16824568062905945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006407544366770682, 0.04438116125448793, 0.0, 0.18575801079970408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07000249760431822, 0.05451133392988236, 0.022769576841270445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08952255740626561, 0.0, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.09924199395337108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010606778452136844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07889090770323962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24436596796750037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015977422099957932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11920684655839074 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 47.20450330481305, "peer_score": 34.80756037644453, "coverage": 0.9999389240406577, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999389240406577, "spot_peer_score": -21.295965981792335, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 47.20450330481305, "peer_archived_score": 34.80756037644453, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -21.295965981792335, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289113.823077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289113.823077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9713898171485026, 0.028610182851497405 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 148, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the last year or so, the US government has restricted China's ability to develop cutting edge AI through [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/). However, there exists a loophole: while Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting edge AI chips, as well as the machines used to manufacture them, they are not currently restricted from buying [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing) provided by US IaaS firms who possess the exact same chips that are physically export controlled." }, { "id": 20879, "title": "Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?", "short_title": "Frontier Chinese AI Model by 2027", "url_title": "Frontier Chinese AI Model by 2027", "slug": "frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-02T16:54:50.995789Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.549974Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": 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Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T08:50:00.295434Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T08:50:00.295434Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T08:50:00.373636Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20879, "title": "Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?", "created_at": "2024-01-02T16:54:50.995789Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-15T22:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-15T22:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-15T22:48:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently, China is not at the cutting edge of AI development (see, e.g., [Cottier, 2022](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FANYsqzPM9Yht3KM2/the-replication-and-emulation-of-gpt-3#:~:text=~October%202020%3A%20PanGu%2Dalpha%E2%80%94Chinese%20industry%2Dacademia%2Dgovernment%20collaboration%E2%80%94worse%20than%20GPT%2D3)) The question of whether China will become a frontier player in the years to come is key to many discussions of AI policy in the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if an AI model developed by a Chinese firm, between question launch and January 1, 2027, is either:\n\ni) Trained with an amount of compute that's within one order of magnitude of that of the leading AI model in the world at the time. \n\nor\n\nii) Top 10 in the world, according to [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard's](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) Areno ELO rating.\n\nFor i, we will use Epoch AI's \"[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)\" database as the resolution source.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "A “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan counts as being part of China.\n\nThe evidence that such a model has been developed—either in the Epoch database or on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard—must be available before January 1, 2027. For example, if a Chinese model that turns out to be frontier is launched in December 2026, but doesn't appear in the Epoch database or on the Arena leaderboard until January 2027, then it does not count for Yes resolution.\n\nIn case the Epoch AI database or the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard are discountinued, Metaculus admins will do their best to find alternative resolution sources. If this is not possible, then the question may be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 20879, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708113156.555205, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708113156.555205, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.81 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18999999999999995, 0.81 ], "means": [ 0.7744850947715505 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06290448966866473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09622124116773499, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.306613770097245, 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1708031544.524566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.31549385682572995, 0.68450614317427 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently, China is not at the cutting edge of AI development (see, e.g., [Cottier, 2022](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FANYsqzPM9Yht3KM2/the-replication-and-emulation-of-gpt-3#:~:text=~October%202020%3A%20PanGu%2Dalpha%E2%80%94Chinese%20industry%2Dacademia%2Dgovernment%20collaboration%E2%80%94worse%20than%20GPT%2D3)) The question of whether China will become a frontier player in the years to come is key to many discussions of AI policy in the United States." }, { "id": 20878, "title": "Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?", "short_title": "ICJ Provisional Measures Against Israel 2024?", "url_title": "ICJ Provisional Measures Against Israel 2024?", "slug": "icj-provisional-measures-against-israel-2024", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-02T16:34:42.678544Z", "published_at": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.918127Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T15:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T15:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 238, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": 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"2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "South Africa filed a case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel claiming it has violated the [1948 Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide_Convention) against genocide on Friday December 29. The case will be argued [January 11 or 12](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866342). The allegations are that Israel's actions in Gaza are [\"genocidal in character.\"](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231228-app-01-00-en.pdf) Israel has vowed to defend itself against the allegations. [According to the BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866342):\n\n>South African government lawyers are preparing for the case to be heard on 11 and 12 January, Clayson Monyela, a spokesperson for South Africa's Department of International Relations and Cooperation, said on X.\n\n>The ICJ, which is based in the Hague in the Netherlands, is the UN's highest court. It settles disputes between states and gives advisory opinions on international legal issues. It does not have the power to bring prosecutions. However, its opinions carry weight with the UN and other international legal bodies.\n\nWhile ICJ cases [can take years](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africas-genocide-case-israel-sets-high-stakes-106055104#:~:text=The%20case%20will%20likely%20drag%20on%20for%20years.), South Africa is requesting that the ICJ order [provisional measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provisional_measure_of_protection). The ICJ [describes provisional measures as](https://www.icj-cij.org/index.php/how-the-court-works#:~:text=Then%20there%20are%20provisional%20measures%2C%20interim%20measures%20which%20can%20be%20requested%20by%20the%20applicant%20State%20if%20it%20considers%20that%20the%20rights%20that%20form%20the%20subject%20of%20its%20application%20are%20in%20immediate%20danger.):\n\n>. . . interim measures which can be requested by the applicant State if it considers that the rights that form the subject of its application are in immediate danger.\n\nAccording to the [ICJ press release](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf) announcing the court filing:\n\n>Pursuant to Article 74 of the Rules of Court, “[a] request for the indication of provisional measures shall have priority over all other cases”.\n\nMore background on provisional measures can be found in [this Lieber Institute article](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/icj-provisional-measures-order-unprecedented/) discussing the ICJ's provisional orders in Ukraine's case against Russia following the 2022 invasion. All ICJ case documents for South Africa's filing against Israel are [available here](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2024, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) orders provisional measures against Israel.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, a provisional measure against Israel will be one which orders Israel to take some action, including but not limited to:\n * Ending or suspending its military campaign in Gaza.\n * Taking steps to ensure the safety of civilians.\n * Submitting a report to the ICJ.\n* If the ICJ orders provisional measures that do not order Israel to take some action, the question will resolve as **No**.\n* Provisional measures ordered as part of any ICJ case will count, this question is not limited to the case brought by South Africa.\n* The ICJ is not to be confused with the ICC. The ICC is a criminal tribunal that prosecutes individuals. The ICJ is a civil tribunal that hears disputes between countries.", "post_id": 20878, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1705789242.803283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 238, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1705789242.803283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 238, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.526500642805556 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0011420024216006778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031004925308313546, 0.42548172029606496, 0.0, 0.4215646917639553, 4.0078780530051255e-06, 0.0, 0.02363618703730458, 0.0015094870171851516, 0.0003317761267745467, 0.012988381154937133, 0.0, 0.5157397688675928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03901978006968093, 0.0, 0.22022617868226838, 0.014593075781549445, 0.0044493468607373085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6422403856946846, 0.0, 0.00021535422114358284, 0.16808239561629323, 0.0, 1.187428576482227, 0.0026504441549310724, 0.0023777715283868207, 0.07404197237928056, 0.0, 0.0005586459283631314, 0.6101416732975788, 0.0, 3.3759915108400477e-06, 0.0, 1.9766498901650866, 0.20791357775604433, 0.5901260779736153, 1.0622251531996458, 0.0, 1.589878775420241, 0.5333379337956302, 0.23256465996261577, 0.0, 0.7670878517062605, 1.979289244504712, 1.1196037335263942, 1.0058406037684966, 0.32940433144621617, 0.28642976994717084, 1.816158566625583, 0.0, 0.027458237791824963, 0.0, 0.7956750007939595, 2.15124266150723, 0.0, 1.3986953777942919, 0.09443932007347894, 0.731801616098077, 0.45479310824925356, 0.555573373794316, 0.0015292517575668835, 1.0935302232019777, 0.4348608860543034, 0.13363552606530665, 0.004855012113528568, 0.3660287053692706, 0.0, 0.00908148143293089, 0.48750934482183833, 0.05766833347262072, 0.010929116746950154, 0.697167593582328, 5.424073114812526e-07, 0.5147119655484863, 0.0, 0.02034976274526739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019752216932373595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27665903272409786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9680763680528292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20370401773559796 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 37.59597832963678, "coverage": 0.9996570470773122, "baseline_score": -4.223344928317858, "spot_peer_score": 33.92327304500027, "peer_archived_score": 37.59597832963678, "baseline_archived_score": -4.223344928317858, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.92327304500027 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1705789242.845355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 238, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1705789242.845355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 238, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.507985685944608, 0.492014314055392 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 516, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "South Africa filed a case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel claiming it has violated the [1948 Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide_Convention) against genocide on Friday December 29. The case will be argued [January 11 or 12](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866342). The allegations are that Israel's actions in Gaza are [\"genocidal in character.\"](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231228-app-01-00-en.pdf) Israel has vowed to defend itself against the allegations. [According to the BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866342):\n\n>South African government lawyers are preparing for the case to be heard on 11 and 12 January, Clayson Monyela, a spokesperson for South Africa's Department of International Relations and Cooperation, said on X.\n\n>The ICJ, which is based in the Hague in the Netherlands, is the UN's highest court. It settles disputes between states and gives advisory opinions on international legal issues. It does not have the power to bring prosecutions. However, its opinions carry weight with the UN and other international legal bodies.\n\nWhile ICJ cases [can take years](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africas-genocide-case-israel-sets-high-stakes-106055104#:~:text=The%20case%20will%20likely%20drag%20on%20for%20years.), South Africa is requesting that the ICJ order [provisional measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provisional_measure_of_protection). The ICJ [describes provisional measures as](https://www.icj-cij.org/index.php/how-the-court-works#:~:text=Then%20there%20are%20provisional%20measures%2C%20interim%20measures%20which%20can%20be%20requested%20by%20the%20applicant%20State%20if%20it%20considers%20that%20the%20rights%20that%20form%20the%20subject%20of%20its%20application%20are%20in%20immediate%20danger.):\n\n>. . . interim measures which can be requested by the applicant State if it considers that the rights that form the subject of its application are in immediate danger.\n\nAccording to the [ICJ press release](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf) announcing the court filing:\n\n>Pursuant to Article 74 of the Rules of Court, “[a] request for the indication of provisional measures shall have priority over all other cases”.\n\nMore background on provisional measures can be found in [this Lieber Institute article](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/icj-provisional-measures-order-unprecedented/) discussing the ICJ's provisional orders in Ukraine's case against Russia following the 2022 invasion. All ICJ case documents for South Africa's filing against Israel are [available here](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192)." }, { "id": 20876, "title": "Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?", "short_title": "2024 Indonesian Presidential Election Runoff?", "url_title": "2024 Indonesian Presidential Election Runoff?", "slug": "2024-indonesian-presidential-election-runoff", "author_id": 115652, "author_username": "jeremy.sitorus37", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-02T03:14:27.782366Z", "published_at": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:11.205536Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20876, "title": "Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?", "created_at": "2024-01-02T03:14:27.782366Z", "open_time": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-26T15:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-26T15:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-06T15:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-13T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-13T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Indonesian presidential election is being contested by [Anies Baswedan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anies_Baswedan) (independent), the former governor of Jakarta; [Prabowo Subianto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prabowo_Subianto) (Gerindra), the Minister of Defense; and [Ganjar Pranowo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganjar_Pranowo) (PDI-P), the former governor of Central Java. According to [Indonesian election law](https://rumahpemilu.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/UU-No.7-Tahun-2017-tentang-Pemilu.pdf), all candidates must register with the General Election Commission (KPU); the period for doing so ended on 14 December, 2023, eliminating the possibility of any other candidates competing.\n\nIndonesian presidential elections are direct, and determined by the popular vote. The law states that if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, then a second round of voting will be held from which all but the two most successful candidates in the first round are to be eliminated. This was the case in 2004 and 2009, after which only two candidates have run (Prabowo and Joko Widodo, the latter of whom won in both 2014 and 2019 but is limited to two terms as President) until now. The first round in 2024 will be held on 14 February, and any second round is to be held on 26 June.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that, following the first round of the presidential election, the results show that none of the three presidential candidates have won 50% or more of the vote and that a runoff will be held.", "fine_print": "If reporting is conflicting or unclear this question will wait to resolve until the 15 February-20 March recapitulation (vote summation and verification) period for the electoral results has ended and the outcome is declared by the [General Election Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Elections_Commission) (KPU).", "post_id": 20876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1707842860.247048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1707842860.247048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.31414979674834537 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0010142146568156748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5514963248814784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7262597419388622, 0.0, 0.09090288086409391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24283972782177998, 1.134355422193633, 0.4151406185251411, 0.11964891568324479, 0.0, 0.1891179962098457, 1.770928187955237, 1.2880336819101654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.103400300106682, 0.8999546713320077, 0.0, 0.14607736383926273, 0.07344717902097064, 1.127481486675597, 0.09746231746313623, 0.6163089641375369, 0.0, 0.040161891972766046, 0.7279431028584126, 0.0012174888155902124, 0.0, 0.12795492306753103, 0.06830738353597367, 0.25819523838988884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3086154737381661, 0.058942783212658584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29148458645309366, 0.0, 0.07891436402356318, 0.03153587526592278, 0.005303828236946891, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07337605903848818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043444640796242134, 0.0, 0.5006386729650141, 0.044500426036369174, 0.015697917683711572, 0.0, 0.003460269966480128, 0.05348682526133925, 0.007035290334828157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06161877370293278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004734442605196612, 0.0, 0.004762393653203529, 0.0, 0.018842738753081796, 0.0, 0.0006732969874897521, 0.026694112832048304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005625232093766742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1262033938958308 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 36.517654259988475, "coverage": 0.9995044781210735, "baseline_score": -26.269274861231096, "spot_peer_score": 2.757224222452401, "peer_archived_score": 36.517654259988475, "baseline_archived_score": -26.269274861231096, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.757224222452401 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1707842860.280084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1707842860.280084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8507444416680141, 0.14925555833198592 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 314, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Indonesian presidential election is being contested by [Anies Baswedan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anies_Baswedan) (independent), the former governor of Jakarta; [Prabowo Subianto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prabowo_Subianto) (Gerindra), the Minister of Defense; and [Ganjar Pranowo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganjar_Pranowo) (PDI-P), the former governor of Central Java. According to [Indonesian election law](https://rumahpemilu.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/UU-No.7-Tahun-2017-tentang-Pemilu.pdf), all candidates must register with the General Election Commission (KPU); the period for doing so ended on 14 December, 2023, eliminating the possibility of any other candidates competing.\n\nIndonesian presidential elections are direct, and determined by the popular vote. The law states that if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, then a second round of voting will be held from which all but the two most successful candidates in the first round are to be eliminated. This was the case in 2004 and 2009, after which only two candidates have run (Prabowo and Joko Widodo, the latter of whom won in both 2014 and 2019 but is limited to two terms as President) until now. The first round in 2024 will be held on 14 February, and any second round is to be held on 26 June." }, { "id": 20816, "title": "Do fish live in Lake Vostok?", "short_title": "Lake Vostok Fish", "url_title": "Lake Vostok Fish", "slug": "lake-vostok-fish", "author_id": 156496, "author_username": "ScienceMon", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-25T19:34:59.478992Z", "published_at": "2023-12-29T20:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:14:47.706389Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:19:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-29T20:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20816, "title": "Do fish live in Lake Vostok?", "created_at": "2023-12-25T19:34:59.478992Z", "open_time": "2023-12-29T20:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T20:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T20:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lake Vostok is the largest subglacial lake in Antarctica. It is one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world but exists beneath approximately 4000 meters of ice.\n\nLake Vostok is poorly explored. Scientists have recovered microbial DNA from the lake, but claims of fish DNA recovery [remain disputed](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2013.13364).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a peer-reviewed scientific study of samples from [Lake Vostok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Vostok) reveals conclusive evidence, before 2050, that fish live in the lake. This evidence could include:\n\n- Fish genetic sequences that cannot be attributed to known fish species\n\n- Photographic evidence of a fish\n\n- Recovery of a fish, in part or in whole", "fine_print": "\"Fish\" will include ray-finned fish, lobe-finned fish, cartilaginous fish, and jawless fish. Any of these will be sufficient for a Yes resolution.\n\nStarfish or jellyfish will not be sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "post_id": 20816, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762362877.033595, "end_time": 1785955531.207971, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762362877.033595, "end_time": 1785955531.207971, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.12381461536976629 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6390484072978414, 0.3136270424281998, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 1.0, 1.9365875459187616, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8768022295910416, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.9355426033024239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287811.783624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287811.783624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9835825276783873, 0.016417472321612715 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lake Vostok is the largest subglacial lake in Antarctica. It is one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world but exists beneath approximately 4000 meters of ice.\n\nLake Vostok is poorly explored. Scientists have recovered microbial DNA from the lake, but claims of fish DNA recovery [remain disputed](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2013.13364)." }, { "id": 20791, "title": "Will a New or Joint \"Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record\" in NBA History be set in 2024?", "short_title": "New Worst NBA Season Record in 2024", "url_title": "New Worst NBA Season Record in 2024", "slug": "new-worst-nba-season-record-in-2024", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-23T14:13:44.927281Z", "published_at": "2023-12-28T20:27:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.368330Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-28T20:27:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-08T03:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-08T03:15:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20791, "title": "Will a New or Joint \"Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record\" in NBA History be set in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-23T14:13:44.927281Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-31T20:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-31T20:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-08T03:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-08T03:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-08T03:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Two months into the 2023-24 [National Basketball Association](https://www.nba.com/) (NBA) regular season, a number of teams have slumped to a poor record. The Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards and San Antonio Spurs have less than a .200 winning percentage. There has been [some criticism of the Detroit Pistons](https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-fact-or-fiction-are-the-2023-24-detroit-pistons-the-worst-team-ever-to-try-221917107.html) in particular due to [their record-breaking 27-game losing streak](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39189426/detroit-pistons-set-nba-record-27th-straight-loss), and [chants of \"sell the team\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/basketball/67799559). Some have suggested they are one of the worst NBA teams in the league's history. \n\nOrdinarily, the NBA regular season consists of 82 games, and the current worst 82-game regular season record is 9 wins and 73 losses, set by [the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers](https://www.landofbasketball.com/statistics/worst_seasons.htm).\n\nThis question asks whether a team will set a new record for the worst NBA 82-game regular season or equal the current record (and thereby jointing holding the record).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve \"Yes\" if any NBA team achieves a 2023-24 regular season record of 9 wins and 73 losses (or fewer wins). The question will will resolve \"No\" if all NBA teams in the 2023-24 regular season achieve at least 10 wins or more.", "fine_print": "If the NBA ceases to exist for any reason including due to a scandal or other incident, the question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 20791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710188910.202429, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710188910.202429, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03039432981373222 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.8714044363396007, 1.9287429580134396, 0.6419315407681068, 0.7744494858282296, 0.1535851000440937, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.889920335945369, "coverage": 0.6501842824051749, "baseline_score": 36.05286420593034, "spot_peer_score": 42.14501655809698, "peer_archived_score": 6.889920335945369, "baseline_archived_score": 36.05286420593034, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.14501655809698 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709797868.086622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709797868.086622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9980049471702692, 0.0019950528297308016 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Two months into the 2023-24 [National Basketball Association](https://www.nba.com/) (NBA) regular season, a number of teams have slumped to a poor record. The Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards and San Antonio Spurs have less than a .200 winning percentage. There has been [some criticism of the Detroit Pistons](https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-fact-or-fiction-are-the-2023-24-detroit-pistons-the-worst-team-ever-to-try-221917107.html) in particular due to [their record-breaking 27-game losing streak](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39189426/detroit-pistons-set-nba-record-27th-straight-loss), and [chants of \"sell the team\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/basketball/67799559). Some have suggested they are one of the worst NBA teams in the league's history. \n\nOrdinarily, the NBA regular season consists of 82 games, and the current worst 82-game regular season record is 9 wins and 73 losses, set by [the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers](https://www.landofbasketball.com/statistics/worst_seasons.htm).\n\nThis question asks whether a team will set a new record for the worst NBA 82-game regular season or equal the current record (and thereby jointing holding the record)." }, { "id": 20790, "title": "Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?", "short_title": "Radiation Incident in Ukraine before 2025?", "url_title": "Radiation Incident in Ukraine before 2025?", "slug": "radiation-incident-in-ukraine-before-2025", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 109158, "username": "Gaia" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-23T00:58:48.136442Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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"2025-01-02T14:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:47:08.155671Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_and_radiation_accidents_and_incidents):\n\n> \"A nuclear and radiation accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as \"an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility. Examples include lethal effect to individuals, large radioactivity release to the environment, reactor core melt.\" The prime example of a \"major nuclear accident\" is one in which a reactor core is damaged and significant amounts of radioactive isotopes are released, such as in the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 and Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.\n\n\nThe situation regarding Russian control of Ukrainian nuclear reactors, particularly the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), has been a [focal point of concern](https://www.world-nuclear.org/ukraine-information/ukraine-russia-war-and-nuclear-energy.aspx) since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The ZNPP, Europe's largest nuclear plant with six reactors, has been under Russian occupation since the early stages of the invasion in February 2022. The plant came under armed attack in March 2022, marking the first instance of an operating civil nuclear power plant being attacked during an active conflict. This attack led to a projectile hitting a training building and resulted in a fire, but essential equipment and the reactors remained unaffected.\n\nSince the conflict began, the [operation of the reactors has varied](https://www.npr.org/2023/09/06/1197574725/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-power-plants), with some being taken offline or put online as needed, depending on the stability of external power supplies and conditions around the plants.\n\n> There are six reactors at Zaporizhzhia maintained by Energoatom personnel, according to Kotin, but Russia controls the plant. Those reactors are currently offline. Meanwhile, Ukraine is operating nine reactors generating electricity at three other locations around the country.\n\nIn June 2023, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of [plotting to stage an attack on ZNPP](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-accuse-each-other-plotting-imminent-attack-nuclear-station-2023-07-04/).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if at any time in 2024, [the International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/) reports, in connection with any nuclear power plant within the borders of Ukraine – as they stood in December 2021 – an accident of level 5, 6 or 7 of the [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654764.600669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 521, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654764.600669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 521, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.037666295400777615 ], "histogram": [ [ 25.50159439819425, 9.150915038339937, 2.136911336898904, 1.8150897246763638, 0.6697789253040944, 1.8571373433351055, 0.18048473042555718, 0.333150973189967, 0.15509229932936272, 0.0016218221884579966, 0.44931793618840987, 0.055232306882144394, 0.03146590273882443, 0.0073865709980384334, 0.008248961356220235, 0.2026556923642402, 0.0072003871113460105, 0.0010890320470124833, 0.01718729923968089, 0.0003736517626180772, 0.058087367246065946, 1.1422776253555228e-05, 1.0239064360974749e-05, 0.004826329276110257, 0.0001838615078156128, 0.13105747216042604, 9.096692358638932e-07, 0.0, 0.021809177293069117, 0.0, 0.011378514459846969, 4.3480709805526805e-08, 5.004557650103814e-05, 0.0025467977406541165, 0.0, 0.00114365832609267, 3.9593449083327185e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.445856265916369e-06, 0.02852625403669448, 0.0, 8.368143838260581e-07, 0.0, 2.0732048002979295e-05, 2.2520855475567306e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030402387961546884, 4.282968649043198e-05, 0.0, 5.617607459710607e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8679605009171602e-05, 0.0009541349364149433, 9.901351172829175e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003569494359787614, 0.01911155492578996, 0.0, 0.0005376160683015102, 0.0, 1.5281643884079898e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011801308592878333, 0.0016812596726904529, 0.0017766922702461023, 0.0, 9.864787048560281e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 8.830738153154202e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5132949668869675, 0.000305211811524573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.525002944304171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22963414350115566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 94.41271591924125, "peer_score": 13.037513293602618, "coverage": 0.9999010183403029, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999010183403029, "spot_peer_score": 10.986404634167664, "spot_baseline_score": 87.97057662822883, "baseline_archived_score": 94.41271591924125, "peer_archived_score": 13.037513293602618, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.986404634167664, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.97057662822883 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289697.880571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 505, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289697.880571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 505, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9980280258707335, 0.0019719741292665784 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 948, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_and_radiation_accidents_and_incidents):\n\n> \"A nuclear and radiation accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as \"an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility. Examples include lethal effect to individuals, large radioactivity release to the environment, reactor core melt.\" The prime example of a \"major nuclear accident\" is one in which a reactor core is damaged and significant amounts of radioactive isotopes are released, such as in the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 and Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.\n\n\nThe situation regarding Russian control of Ukrainian nuclear reactors, particularly the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), has been a [focal point of concern](https://www.world-nuclear.org/ukraine-information/ukraine-russia-war-and-nuclear-energy.aspx) since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The ZNPP, Europe's largest nuclear plant with six reactors, has been under Russian occupation since the early stages of the invasion in February 2022. The plant came under armed attack in March 2022, marking the first instance of an operating civil nuclear power plant being attacked during an active conflict. This attack led to a projectile hitting a training building and resulted in a fire, but essential equipment and the reactors remained unaffected.\n\nSince the conflict began, the [operation of the reactors has varied](https://www.npr.org/2023/09/06/1197574725/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-power-plants), with some being taken offline or put online as needed, depending on the stability of external power supplies and conditions around the plants.\n\n> There are six reactors at Zaporizhzhia maintained by Energoatom personnel, according to Kotin, but Russia controls the plant. Those reactors are currently offline. Meanwhile, Ukraine is operating nine reactors generating electricity at three other locations around the country.\n\nIn June 2023, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of [plotting to stage an attack on ZNPP](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-accuse-each-other-plotting-imminent-attack-nuclear-station-2023-07-04/)." }, { "id": 20789, "title": "Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?", "short_title": "Fed Funds Rate Below 4%?", "url_title": "Fed Funds Rate Below 4%?", "slug": "fed-funds-rate-below-4", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-23T00:48:06.779655Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.869014Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 432, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20789, "title": "Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?", "created_at": "2023-12-23T00:48:06.779655Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T14:52:39.322047Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Federal Funds Rate (FFR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate) is the interest rate at which U.S. depository institutions lend reserve balances to each other overnight. It's a crucial benchmark in financial markets and influences a wide range of market interest rates. As of December 2023, the target FFR is [between 5.25% and 5.50%](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr). The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the FFR, impacting employment and inflation in the U.S. economy. Changes in the FFR directly influence borrowing costs for consumers, businesses, and the government, thereby affecting [overall economic activity and inflation](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/fed-funds-rate)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if the most recent [effective federal funds rate](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr) on December 31, 2024 is less than 4%.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20789, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735666605.625802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 427, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735666605.625802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 427, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.028323832029579308 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.407901016766726, 9.968671188663818, 3.395304192079664, 2.5792651442419676, 0.6058181580701529, 0.7945000634797645, 0.6588895492870765, 0.31684130172249936, 0.2782380226146087, 0.6152831438721093, 0.5977773085591238, 0.3652227668424864, 0.019899549189044026, 0.0, 0.04151459580717334, 0.1437768540610367, 5.058726107524316e-05, 3.6149181949977683e-07, 0.0014710716285334274, 6.577215357800102e-07, 0.03489005376449119, 0.1820540202086744, 1.8143757878210448e-05, 4.364488845899094e-09, 0.0014197956302216025, 0.009675507942134325, 0.2270668033854753, 0.0022344536309861804, 0.0023118104047486383, 0.0, 0.017688181433735302, 0.0061710551608561235, 0.0037086117833960114, 0.007622578083467559, 0.0006903669897807637, 0.004519311525133678, 1.0373454355888917e-05, 1.3270099816053902e-05, 0.0020858205192201386, 0.00030547385461104177, 0.020690655648420576, 4.046059681700419e-06, 0.0005105048216997965, 1.766220435110205e-05, 0.0009560798541365372, 0.14696301229439257, 0.0, 0.002425422244479435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015304573872942429, 0.005327037359942586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038675085998017843, 0.0014163074513440133, 7.335875331504489e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004538885001603397, 0.0005879378674190039, 3.834535660398168e-06, 0.004135890600298942, 0.000761879591579358, 0.0007871296877650757, 5.5385217686948206e-05, 2.4567092872210336e-05, 0.00022118090738421293, 2.5817102929673814e-05, 0.0036568795700798067, 0.0004694361239615697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002140166933997748, 0.006847890590874138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031375473154372823, 1.6487236886208637e-06, 0.0007203677285530406, 0.0, 0.00021231857392401652, 0.0, 3.904984053390552e-08, 0.0, 6.406041750807859e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000740208071402781, 0.31024603650199495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005596897304739651 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.41298144224831, "peer_score": 37.99932419663855, "coverage": 0.9998549297632344, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998549297632344, "spot_peer_score": 22.70047414020972, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 77.41298144224831, "peer_archived_score": 37.99932419663855, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.70047414020972, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289059.277714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 419, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289059.277714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 419, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9949671832490073, 0.005032816750992614 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Federal Funds Rate (FFR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate) is the interest rate at which U.S. depository institutions lend reserve balances to each other overnight. It's a crucial benchmark in financial markets and influences a wide range of market interest rates. As of December 2023, the target FFR is [between 5.25% and 5.50%](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr). The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the FFR, impacting employment and inflation in the U.S. economy. Changes in the FFR directly influence borrowing costs for consumers, businesses, and the government, thereby affecting [overall economic activity and inflation](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/fed-funds-rate)" }, { "id": 20786, "title": "Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?", "short_title": "Trump Felony Conviction Before Election?", "url_title": "Trump Felony Conviction Before Election?", "slug": "trump-felony-conviction-before-election", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T17:34:16.960668Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.012076Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 106, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 919, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20786, "title": "Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T17:34:16.960668Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Former President Donald Trump [has been charged with 91 felony counts](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/) in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is [scheduled to go to trial in March 2024](https://www.axios.com/2023/07/27/trump-2024-presidential-election-legal-trials). The trial most likely to go to court last is the Georgia election interference case, which does not yet have a scheduled court date, but Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis [has requested an August 2024 trial date](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/11/22/when-trump-trials-2024-schedule/71637316007/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, any court in the United States convicts Donald Trump of committing a felony.", "fine_print": "* It resolves as **Yes** upon conviction by any US court, the outcome of later appeals or legal proceedings is immaterial.\n* Any felony conviction is sufficient, it need to not be related to an existing indictment.\n* This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required.", "post_id": 20786, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717103708.064452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 922, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717103708.064452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 922, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.6367730601064924 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.952879374610986e-05, 2.900430408296273, 0.0004738480193012689, 0.0003711374723407117, 2.3690198813555667e-08, 0.005157327254581107, 0.047498974715510574, 0.03985455184782245, 0.0, 0.0785852960804116, 0.373483994158978, 0.0003407403450560245, 0.051353333553562266, 1.7146208770882558e-05, 0.25552149065248186, 0.4745325007679022, 0.017537378226485503, 0.04978942172593233, 0.0010394360524149358, 0.0012963013181953574, 0.97725011145015, 0.0014565242593933755, 0.0009022422773862228, 0.04643770288016776, 0.2776140525115761, 0.9179713951773139, 0.003906388609802656, 0.014258431842228338, 0.16532146944805057, 0.0, 1.2983012805593066, 0.09920914903890135, 0.0035659777007848396, 0.36932470441897075, 0.014809388391155882, 0.16929125302696135, 0.058339304238704856, 0.00018564248681347858, 0.6106314813699001, 0.14922306664180882, 1.2725562779000974, 0.42809738967464284, 0.0015258677928297847, 0.0001036286611807042, 0.14817403880765218, 2.7873339418237353, 0.11530379689425027, 0.2966795272557352, 0.11458609069479375, 0.6846414846602309, 3.3794848058922837, 0.6786979987272623, 0.8170912403057262, 0.027270198800408662, 1.0687912232421468, 1.722712984746651, 2.271457140717552, 1.269395471402779, 0.0, 0.003086397377447261, 1.7895205356835704, 0.8110022190438969, 0.3140625808857805, 0.13362704176323825, 1.1288985816820534, 1.1875673073413382, 0.16794438817063534, 0.8449916049187329, 1.6560892822808393, 0.1744549203238152, 2.4125774435195018, 0.5789414215136346, 2.848366442425179e-11, 0.2667804585817271, 0.0680339866369346, 0.5107037073373724, 0.009705444099690867, 0.05993525527522104, 0.0002678140303497757, 0.0031269251143317286, 2.1373291496002387, 0.29684105927980825, 1.879165914653348e-08, 0.0, 0.002207837839734179, 1.2501326438090121, 0.0, 0.20051921282223897, 1.1436962403225517e-09, 0.0001372725286611448, 2.273246731742481, 0.9057780321935424, 1.042499853575832, 0.0001405049777245914, 0.00018120352145852678, 0.001597557314385858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.43908410747633 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.479018043675335, "coverage": 0.48773335246572636, "baseline_score": -3.3104608674105873, "spot_peer_score": 18.634039563128358, "peer_archived_score": 21.479018043675335, "baseline_archived_score": -3.3104608674105873, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.634039563128358 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717103719.668838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 922, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717103719.668838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 922, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38730474498487655, 0.6126952550151235 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 41, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1802, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Former President Donald Trump [has been charged with 91 felony counts](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/) in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is [scheduled to go to trial in March 2024](https://www.axios.com/2023/07/27/trump-2024-presidential-election-legal-trials). The trial most likely to go to court last is the Georgia election interference case, which does not yet have a scheduled court date, but Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis [has requested an August 2024 trial date](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/11/22/when-trump-trials-2024-schedule/71637316007/)." }, { "id": 20785, "title": "Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?", "short_title": "Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?", "url_title": "Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?", "slug": "starship-booster-tower-catch-attempt-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T16:42:24.316183Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.968556Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": 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"actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-13T12:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-13T12:33:57.361231Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-13T12:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. So far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration.\n\nSpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk [has dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. In an [interview in October 2023](https://www.space.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-expectations-second-flight), Musk said:\n\n>If we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with [the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video).", "fine_print": "* A catch attempt will be considered one where the Super Heavy booster makes contact with the tower or the catching arms (\"chopsticks\") during its landing attempt while the booster is intact.\n * So an aborted or inaccurate attempt, where it approaches the tower but does not make contact, will not count.\n * The booster exploding before contacting the tower, resulting in debris coming into contact with the tower, does not count.\n* The attempt need not be successful, and even an immediate explosion of the booster upon contacting the tower will still be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n* The catch attempt need not occur as part of an integrated flight test (where the second stage is stacked on top of the booster). However, the booster must reach an altitude of at least 10 kilometers before attempting a landing to qualify.", "post_id": 20785, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728822821.539888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728822821.539888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.778215970748573 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.920803189601554e-05, 0.01347575193164291, 0.0, 0.07262876966143585, 0.0050696958928345736, 0.005153667139516488, 0.18935013248243068, 0.0631375798964869, 3.4757381556571094e-05, 0.004545486058021435, 0.006515326947011495, 5.260537436513615e-07, 0.19569060478963568, 0.0, 0.0002523740818178671, 0.2485059234544814, 0.0, 0.004082266992493693, 0.0027361813983366513, 3.190667852371335e-07, 0.02179055196357011, 0.0024502609206985136, 0.001784029021981204, 0.005618634579589222, 0.00661790718677103, 0.004384386790893955, 4.8593638926855346e-06, 0.0014431279564932377, 0.0029701684460293836, 0.0, 0.013687613009743938, 0.00018503365096048569, 0.0004001178069303514, 7.802224878455235e-05, 2.352539022799322e-07, 0.021030635931590484, 0.0016291952054923562, 0.0005538735987774979, 3.124846987710643e-05, 0.00015112127842158607, 1.0310435333733956, 0.0, 1.1218120934509955e-05, 4.879865118504405e-05, 0.0, 0.044935758720288856, 0.10132199250355511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.736594939130878, 0.0002046112755361794, 0.0001130868232805735, 0.00016806093462351474, 0.01551382865414555, 0.6664975585033204, 0.0, 0.2787793271815238, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0214681036295152, 6.885666483349416e-06, 0.5348456904420972, 0.0075512877498316155, 0.4122733840096815, 1.2812670519233893, 1.3813586203254808, 0.2748386647995793, 0.20889053985864084, 0.0652959956086753, 2.3051308021615693, 0.023633064899022987, 0.0069796119822310865, 0.8133964473341271, 0.0007808333855997817, 4.1612177897065905, 0.2546706595982053, 0.23096461279080194, 0.1928445500484313, 0.05579625505501556, 3.1904747712494945, 0.7588995593124301, 0.332385799706009, 0.12784984317735, 0.417023183126016, 1.9891700112889128, 0.08370738689354898, 0.15851271242021703, 1.0056457607875533, 0.184501413751365, 4.13359798406694, 0.10654520499421168, 0.5556000109705828, 0.2787051160794052, 0.0, 2.653966015062132, 0.9373994550983956, 0.1540803015108922, 1.5537932027476598, 4.647710150032032 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -13.553827224625232, "peer_score": 33.20377658720394, "coverage": 0.7826440595181628, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998521386318366, "spot_peer_score": -0.7770651006583396, "baseline_archived_score": -13.553827224625232, "peer_archived_score": 33.20377658720394, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7770651006583396 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288792.824338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288792.824338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41065195168718405, 0.589348048312816 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1292, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. So far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration.\n\nSpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk [has dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. In an [interview in October 2023](https://www.space.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-expectations-second-flight), Musk said:\n\n>If we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year." }, { "id": 20784, "title": "Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?", "short_title": "US Refugee Admissions Above 100k in FY 2024?", "url_title": "US Refugee Admissions Above 100k in FY 2024?", "slug": "us-refugee-admissions-above-100k-in-fy-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T15:53:53.667240Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.541343Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T11:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T11:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 416, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20784, "title": "Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T15:53:53.667240Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T11:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T11:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-06T11:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The refugee admissions cap was [set to a historic low](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/us-refugee-cap-fy21/index.html) of 15,000 for fiscal year 2021 by the Trump administration, following a steadily declining admissions cap after Trump took office. The Biden administration raised the cap for FY 2021 to 62,500 but [fell far short of that number](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/biden-administration-falls-short-of-fiscal-year-2021-us-refugee-admissions-cap-.html) with 11,411 refugees admitted in FY 2021. The Biden administration raised the cap to 125,000 in fiscal year 2022 and the cap has remained there since, however actual refugee admissions have been slow to increase, reaching 60,014 in FY 2023.\n\nDescribing the reasons actual refugee admissions remained low in 2021, [Vox reported](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22777209/immigration-refugee-cap-biden-afghan-resettlement):\n\n>There are legitimate reasons why the recent resettlement numbers are so low. The US government and refugee agencies have been primarily focused on resettling Afghans who fled their home country amid the US withdrawal. And the entire refugee apparatus — from the federal officials who assess refugee claims to the agencies that help with resettlement — shrank significantly during the Trump administration due to severe funding cuts.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Since agencies’ federal funding is tied to the refugee cap, many saw their budgets decrease significantly under Trump, forcing them to dramatically scale back their operations. Soerens said that World Relief closed eight of its offices over the past five years, some of which had been operating since the 1970s. That involved laying off personnel, many of whom had decades in institutional knowledge.\n\nThe US [Refugee Processing Center](https://www.wrapsnet.org/admissions-and-arrivals/) (RPC), within the US Department of State, reports refugee admission figures. According to their data, the US has not admitted over 100,000 refugees in a single fiscal year since 1994. See the charts below summarizing this data (see [here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/us-refugee-admissions.html) for code used to generate the charts).\n\n\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in fiscal year 2024, refugee admissions to the United States exceed 100,000 according to data published by the US [Refugee Processing Center](https://www.wrapsnet.org/admissions-and-arrivals/) (RPC). Note that this question asks for US fiscal year 2024 admissions, which runs from October 2023 to September 2024, not calendar year admissions.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20784, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727577259.544569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 413, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727577259.544569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 413, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05603999332336402 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.719110607140538, 18.032225360553237, 2.391648264331838, 2.040059808673353, 0.0, 2.4979958898990366, 0.41232131817164586, 1.3448525259397615, 0.24992836763822218, 0.16249811521204624, 0.5202426574900713, 0.0004128454092742762, 0.15622719376056987, 0.05207641774848474, 0.00690971186798436, 0.20719651585262022, 0.08300128159616812, 0.05295082724208146, 0.000978641665534787, 0.14516560366448142, 0.27385453967683326, 0.005062847760901468, 0.060750135581705764, 0.1122921740396933, 8.613779280062138e-06, 0.21196882949184087, 0.0, 0.0012160791889474346, 0.034160531481196035, 0.0, 0.03333591620153929, 0.005216741740683968, 0.024498247194671273, 0.42831810912089824, 0.011657520102631177, 0.3982836576990203, 0.013091821681844891, 0.0, 0.05882409831653773, 0.0015412818778781166, 0.0934222816973038, 0.026015326538982773, 0.09369637109308848, 1.307125136097481e-07, 0.04002292238032435, 0.010117098545887425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007409892914200024, 0.0, 0.08587616322430153, 0.001161850290478353, 0.0, 0.003156984429932919, 0.00010741321677830989, 0.03372388313551229, 0.021642398414748788, 0.014121977195748089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06493445432258285, 0.0, 0.0006719423211824029, 0.00018103811352554176, 0.00029803251902017823, 0.023988881827293418, 0.020060283461279572, 0.008759810962809271, 0.0004650848052015298, 0.0009302718194135883, 0.027155460867673828, 1.0518469820013862e-06, 0.015027311958259239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021429895336298056, 0.01753457142508031, 0.013267989224809467, 0.0, 0.5933597031972628, 0.003339467049458565, 0.0006864366460169767, 1.3171089012093366e-06, 0.0, 0.10335323613059735, 0.0031829362005209596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015244180003836762, 0.0, 5.89160983128439e-05, 0.0, 3.5273855925935495e-08, 0.004506943441340837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03472499159142741 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -33.87155724729482, "coverage": 0.9998707105512461, "baseline_score": -162.09964039687603, "spot_peer_score": 34.113491457152705, "peer_archived_score": -33.87155724729482, "baseline_archived_score": -162.09964039687603, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.113491457152705 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727684027.467606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 416, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727684027.467606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 416, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9982126739074101, 0.001787326092589946 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1015, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The refugee admissions cap was [set to a historic low](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/us-refugee-cap-fy21/index.html) of 15,000 for fiscal year 2021 by the Trump administration, following a steadily declining admissions cap after Trump took office. The Biden administration raised the cap for FY 2021 to 62,500 but [fell far short of that number](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/biden-administration-falls-short-of-fiscal-year-2021-us-refugee-admissions-cap-.html) with 11,411 refugees admitted in FY 2021. The Biden administration raised the cap to 125,000 in fiscal year 2022 and the cap has remained there since, however actual refugee admissions have been slow to increase, reaching 60,014 in FY 2023.\n\nDescribing the reasons actual refugee admissions remained low in 2021, [Vox reported](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22777209/immigration-refugee-cap-biden-afghan-resettlement):\n\n>There are legitimate reasons why the recent resettlement numbers are so low. The US government and refugee agencies have been primarily focused on resettling Afghans who fled their home country amid the US withdrawal. And the entire refugee apparatus — from the federal officials who assess refugee claims to the agencies that help with resettlement — shrank significantly during the Trump administration due to severe funding cuts.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Since agencies’ federal funding is tied to the refugee cap, many saw their budgets decrease significantly under Trump, forcing them to dramatically scale back their operations. Soerens said that World Relief closed eight of its offices over the past five years, some of which had been operating since the 1970s. That involved laying off personnel, many of whom had decades in institutional knowledge.\n\nThe US [Refugee Processing Center](https://www.wrapsnet.org/admissions-and-arrivals/) (RPC), within the US Department of State, reports refugee admission figures. According to their data, the US has not admitted over 100,000 refugees in a single fiscal year since 1994. See the charts below summarizing this data (see [here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/us-refugee-admissions.html) for code used to generate the charts).\n\n\n\n" }, { "id": 20783, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?", "short_title": "Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?", "url_title": "Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?", "slug": "khamenei-out-as-leader-of-iran-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T06:15:09.086198Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.429989Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 509, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20783, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T06:15:09.086198Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:53:30.478611Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Ali Khamenei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei) has been Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989. His predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader of Iran, had formally selected a successor in 1985, four years before his death in 1989. However, after falling out with his chosen successor he selected Ali Khamenei in 1989. Ali Khamenei [has yet to publicly name a successor](https://agsiw.org/khameneis-succession-dilemma-to-name-or-not-to-name-a-successor-designate/).\n\nIn late 2022 and early 2023, [large scale protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahsa_Amini_protests) and unrest took place in Iran, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after she was arrested for violating the hijab law. The protests [had largely ended](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/irans-protests-crushed-mahsa-aminis-death-still-felt-year-later-world-rcna105003) after the spring of 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.", "fine_print": "* To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.", "post_id": 20783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671872.998994, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 506, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671872.998994, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 506, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025363075335513338 ], "histogram": [ [ 19.03885745601077, 8.70414130359359, 6.080681181946707, 3.3766530424546097, 0.4519226063564781, 0.7861125202143749, 0.9592668969836218, 0.7068775092802838, 0.2430233754781657, 0.26149441468820855, 0.8836496460952888, 0.015647862944874677, 0.17470447127484104, 0.03333631436312952, 0.2886462403193289, 0.41049496536752844, 0.00033260479552867333, 0.006054219655868677, 0.018159875776183918, 0.007544642345764429, 0.473783822912654, 0.00048645069341422614, 0.005102506474156546, 0.0, 0.00032038871888610734, 0.17784999652318176, 0.006922176793584388, 0.0, 2.8384880300492336e-05, 0.0, 0.03444743215679123, 8.8804061250438e-06, 0.017306135358450866, 0.0, 3.029792797858939e-07, 0.004020319034391808, 9.826682215964852e-05, 2.8865911855125186e-05, 0.0, 0.22437337780110383, 0.0070865407374598776, 0.0, 0.00943342577472276, 0.0008806776194860962, 0.0023998090069086574, 0.003176339389048804, 0.0, 7.821579505575006e-05, 2.9478289411232336e-05, 0.00011414558151974165, 0.0006877072187979943, 3.135652729370098e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 7.361916053586038e-06, 0.0005269797651056701, 4.1394864652051245e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016091239891310974, 0.015124511990436634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010177659730008475, 0.0006564797669964929, 0.0006351192331343376, 0.0, 0.005045167126087157, 0.001292278809748648, 1.329942793747989e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00132516083308446, 9.732958890028824e-06, 0.0, 9.616284650433976e-10, 4.34905406291597e-06, 9.558243084379225e-05, 3.404293136469377e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014652574242574928, 0.0, 0.00013735067243351973, 0.0, 6.968010105949462e-05, 0.00019774047192312023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021500403421726166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02368541701161333 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.28128127866854, "peer_score": 25.162904009261634, "coverage": 0.9999000864439973, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999000864439973, "spot_peer_score": 21.943726282190987, "spot_baseline_score": 78.24085649273731, "baseline_archived_score": 89.28128127866854, "peer_archived_score": 25.162904009261634, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.943726282190987, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.24085649273731 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287968.516829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 499, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287968.516829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 499, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9883204937949414, 0.011679506205058669 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Ali Khamenei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei) has been Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989. His predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader of Iran, had formally selected a successor in 1985, four years before his death in 1989. However, after falling out with his chosen successor he selected Ali Khamenei in 1989. Ali Khamenei [has yet to publicly name a successor](https://agsiw.org/khameneis-succession-dilemma-to-name-or-not-to-name-a-successor-designate/).\n\nIn late 2022 and early 2023, [large scale protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahsa_Amini_protests) and unrest took place in Iran, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after she was arrested for violating the hijab law. The protests [had largely ended](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/irans-protests-crushed-mahsa-aminis-death-still-felt-year-later-world-rcna105003) after the spring of 2023." }, { "id": 20781, "title": "Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?", "short_title": "X bankruptcy in 2024?", "url_title": "X bankruptcy in 2024?", "slug": "x-bankruptcy-in-2024", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T05:41:26.193339Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.741983Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 786, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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[told](https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-tells-twitter-staff-bankruptcy-isnt-out-question-platformer-2022-11-10/) his employees that bankruptcy is not out of the question. Still, Musk has [mentioned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024) ambitious plans for turning X into more than just a social media app; he also aims for it to be a financial app, with updates expected in 2024. Musk [remarked](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024), \"You won’t need a bank account... it would blow my mind if we don’t have that rolled out by the end of next year.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources announce that X has declared bankruptcy before January 1st, 2025.", "fine_print": "* X will be considered to have filed for bankruptcy if X Corp. or a parent company files for bankruptcy, including [Chapter 7 (liquidation) or Chapter 11 (reorganization)](https://www.uscourts.gov/services-forms/bankruptcy/bankruptcy-basics) bankruptcy.\n * This includes companies that merge with or acquire [X Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X_Corp.), for example if X Corp. merges with another company and the merged company later declares bankruptcy, or if a company acquires X Corp. and the acquiring company later declares bankruptcy.\n* If X Corp. changes its name or its structure (for example by selling off a 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boycotts](https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/29/23981928/elon-musk-ad-boycott-go-fuck-yourself-destroy-x) that have significantly hurt the company financially.\n\nFurthermore, in November 2022, Musk [told](https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-tells-twitter-staff-bankruptcy-isnt-out-question-platformer-2022-11-10/) his employees that bankruptcy is not out of the question. Still, Musk has [mentioned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024) ambitious plans for turning X into more than just a social media app; he also aims for it to be a financial app, with updates expected in 2024. Musk [remarked](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024), \"You won’t need a bank account... it would blow my mind if we don’t have that rolled out by the end of next year.\"" }, { "id": 20780, "title": "Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?", "short_title": "Legislation Limiting LLMs Introduced in 2024?", "url_title": "Legislation Limiting LLMs Introduced in 2024?", "slug": "legislation-limiting-llms-introduced-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T05:40:36.171922Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.897591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-19T16:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Specific legislation limiting LLMs has not been introduced in the U.S. Congress as of now. However, the ongoing discussions and emerging concerns in various sectors, including healthcare, indicate a growing awareness and potential for legislative action in the near future. \n\nNote: There is no formal definition for LLMs, though [one article](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-speed-up-training-for-large-language-models-81ffb30c36b2) describes them as follows:\n\n>Typically, a large language model contains more than 100 billion parameters and is trained using advanced algorithms on a large corpus.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, a bill is introduced in either the US House or US Senate which would impose one of the following restrictions on large language models or products using large language models.\n\n* Forbids their creation\n* Sets limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with.\n* Prevents their use for certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.\n* Restricts the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restricts US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.\n * The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry. For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country. Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.\n * An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.\n\nResolution will be determined according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) and keyword searches of [GovTrack.us](GovTrack.us).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20780, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714983791.96496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 499, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714983791.96496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 499, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5194917881963665 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.00023153325020706255, 0.8072347376970441, 0.00034032558035140294, 0.0, 1.7410855452264272e-08, 0.01571903396805869, 0.00233572778556613, 0.10143175571066464, 9.500214638746931e-05, 0.0, 0.5249423679684928, 0.97991934937665, 0.03961857537341362, 0.00017277617754778943, 0.001248475513477419, 0.02164099855155071, 0.7086995574246804, 7.377631287678543e-08, 8.055955327762718e-07, 0.0, 0.7547254029252004, 0.0, 0.00020718437862913313, 0.00906698200363623, 1.1988142098326032e-05, 2.021507019923487, 0.03891290588488613, 0.001713535109052426, 0.00574685004285843, 0.0, 0.8498359644859235, 0.37375626210334073, 0.003494953826906632, 0.42652925730007424, 1.5242074412004816e-06, 1.0290216793537839, 0.40912165163666503, 1.66574369285824, 0.008496551960321737, 0.8938680294270386, 0.4023400612453434, 0.0, 0.11791666422036053, 0.11283582474766707, 1.141415882065279, 0.7274397389406035, 0.5418603750773174, 0.029721037496250005, 0.0, 0.0015104791117476646, 1.4117499884787081, 0.14814492414630714, 0.8479152197109382, 2.119531702335497, 0.5939954174278094, 1.3130519980371895, 3.955570089370579, 0.3082260470611484, 0.0, 0.061081454228606696, 4.40553492028827, 0.2389921157290261, 0.7667383026726838, 0.0014356537356469468, 0.2386743561473041, 2.106808879085374, 1.5667908532051167, 1.7074687107037865, 0.094136224220922, 0.0, 0.42747183395674804, 0.17737707628732918, 0.015847731628833704, 0.022450040989423204, 0.22952851285839063, 1.601860528824744, 0.1053204986468749, 0.04142483509185396, 0.8549484744804791, 0.13786837605310112, 0.7625317990353875, 0.7129799887398955, 0.013078888576278046, 2.4092547612896383e-05, 4.380674264799545e-06, 0.22972998155604807, 0.03942595608808022, 4.8772182469933375e-05, 4.063004521956243e-05, 0.0, 0.17962038744988432, 0.0003563372457279551, 2.2357611007951795e-06, 4.037238235496935e-07, 0.40071783056210564, 0.17429065990953752, 0.002894598447887306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3923567304904797 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.44631551476178, "coverage": 0.21411873924047198, "baseline_score": 5.456206912288894, "spot_peer_score": 31.403573975014034, "peer_archived_score": 6.44631551476178, "baseline_archived_score": 5.456206912288894, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.403573975014034 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710834433.834584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710834433.834584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8280744726791918, 0.17192552732080824 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 587, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Specific legislation limiting LLMs has not been introduced in the U.S. Congress as of now. However, the ongoing discussions and emerging concerns in various sectors, including healthcare, indicate a growing awareness and potential for legislative action in the near future. \n\nNote: There is no formal definition for LLMs, though [one article](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-speed-up-training-for-large-language-models-81ffb30c36b2) describes them as follows:\n\n>Typically, a large language model contains more than 100 billion parameters and is trained using advanced algorithms on a large corpus." }, { "id": 20779, "title": "Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?", "short_title": "Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024?", "url_title": "Will Biden and Trump Debate in 2024?", "slug": "will-biden-and-trump-debate-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T05:30:47.287767Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.225269Z", 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20779, "title": "Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T05:30:47.287767Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-28T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-08T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2024 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Parties will select their candidates in 2024. The current front runners for the Democratic Party and Republican party are [Joe Biden](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/) and [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/), respectively.\n\nPrior to the 2020 presidential election, [two of the three scheduled debates took place between Trump and Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_debates). The second scheduled debate was cancelled after Trump contracted COVID-19 and refused a proposal for the debate to take place virtually. As of December 21, 2023, Donald Trump [has not participated](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/18/donald-trump-nikki-haleys-gop-debate-takeaways/71839179007/) in any of the Republican primary debates, and was ineligible to participate due to [not signing the loyalty pledge](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4148039-heres-where-2024-republicans-stand-on-the-rncs-loyalty-pledge/) to support the eventual nominee.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a live debate for presidential candidates, including a virtual debate.", "fine_print": "* A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to one another in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.\n* The debate need not complete its scheduled duration, it is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.", "post_id": 20779, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719878024.96255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 716, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719878024.96255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 716, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9730261149980883 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.20554874531554276, 7.966595364286154e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6675295834529589e-06, 0.0, 0.009185769096929159, 2.443161131978812e-09, 8.221837525793294e-05, 0.008213750805795025, 5.58571550409356e-06, 0.008531619020833995, 0.001315465711232602, 8.879581189264775e-10, 0.020131914848601242, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2337860298013e-09, 5.8225982866086146e-05, 0.0005610377881904079, 6.774767480870165e-06, 0.00019601700109189498, 0.0014530009697774477, 1.9613398358558656e-07, 0.006742431248556464, 0.0, 1.569027242936547e-07, 0.07333015640513507, 0.0, 0.002460235520517772, 0.0005996940662577854, 0.00023596980206393156, 0.009053916578420246, 0.00018049341186209225, 0.0032818912248419293, 5.8241284258619385e-08, 0.0001221895572349985, 7.30410912821642e-05, 7.38550353291719e-06, 0.006508926021685145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011613451652209893, 0.0, 0.003181702519680434, 3.3183572663276248e-06, 0.0, 0.00018045144462820146, 0.08502264350924339, 0.06966143728073272, 1.3069218107751088e-10, 1.3359529223930892e-09, 2.898680329854692e-05, 0.0006479555357916945, 0.0010872775671316999, 0.0002185148381021225, 2.141956255384026e-07, 0.0, 0.0069871573022639915, 0.0027534564402158595, 1.2698203670405707e-06, 0.0017685443641952375, 1.093701288082036e-06, 0.000439396505872203, 0.04606622071848759, 7.687576698203453e-06, 0.0009383939193638417, 0.0017511199974882558, 0.017974892115384472, 0.03247254993552773, 1.932537697821244e-06, 0.002590779897029, 6.082703525064876e-05, 0.0228378617141611, 0.5003320761348555, 0.00131083700527707, 0.00011637284691064203, 8.485912443652516e-07, 4.789734328819819e-07, 0.21791224603723675, 0.12832661081557384, 0.14264539985204727, 0.0019030930629109011, 0.004828149908228524, 0.02999546763338163, 0.1808146119124729, 0.20761878714558102, 0.002484706904097035, 2.025936451725213e-06, 0.6749152842440803, 0.028015709769256495, 0.05019230207298758, 0.536913132801485, 0.4444373454849232, 2.542212806640869, 1.4566478045827793, 2.355773467008046, 3.618988545490554, 38.23570644112523 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 25.510936561115198, "coverage": 0.6345831839547713, "baseline_score": 31.140822386122352, "spot_peer_score": 43.72383733765606, "peer_archived_score": 25.510936561115198, "baseline_archived_score": 31.140822386122352, "spot_peer_archived_score": 43.72383733765606 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719438502.760854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 714, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719438502.760854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 714, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.037930147911346634, 0.9620698520886534 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1696, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2024 US presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Parties will select their candidates in 2024. The current front runners for the Democratic Party and Republican party are [Joe Biden](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/) and [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/), respectively.\n\nPrior to the 2020 presidential election, [two of the three scheduled debates took place between Trump and Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_debates). The second scheduled debate was cancelled after Trump contracted COVID-19 and refused a proposal for the debate to take place virtually. As of December 21, 2023, Donald Trump [has not participated](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/18/donald-trump-nikki-haleys-gop-debate-takeaways/71839179007/) in any of the Republican primary debates, and was ineligible to participate due to [not signing the loyalty pledge](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4148039-heres-where-2024-republicans-stand-on-the-rncs-loyalty-pledge/) to support the eventual nominee." }, { "id": 20776, "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?", "short_title": "Cannabis Removed From US Schedule I by 2025?", "url_title": "Cannabis Removed From US Schedule I by 2025?", "slug": "cannabis-removed-from-us-schedule-i-by-2025", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T05:00:08.123078Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.602421Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"description": "As of the end of 2023, the legal landscape for cannabis in the United States has undergone significant changes, marking a departure from previous years. Recreational marijuana is now legal in 24 states and the District of Columbia. This represents a substantial increase from the earlier status when it was legal in only 9 states and DC. Additionally, medical marijuana has been legalized in 40 states and the District of Columbia.\n\nWill this changing landscape at the state level influence federal policy? The Schedule I classification, as defined by the Controlled Substances Act, is reserved for substances with a high potential for abuse, no currently accepted medical use in treatment in the United States, and a lack of accepted safety for use under medical supervision. Given the growing acceptance and legalization of cannabis at the state level, there is increasing debate and speculation about potential changes to its federal classification.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2025, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. If it is later reclassified as a schedule I drug, the question still resolves Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20776, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735626327.625906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 540, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735626327.625906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 540, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06040880721397679 ], "histogram": [ [ 19.94735126564399, 7.015462146115882, 1.5533407974376967, 2.450097935503493, 2.1395756507463712, 3.743838215451107, 1.1704558141941006, 0.39903548668389555, 0.42614165596394726, 0.432873361261644, 0.5276830331290778, 0.17339663243167036, 0.31240173798340115, 0.15488483066158942, 0.1748697144263303, 0.7407460485079874, 0.10518418125448983, 0.15202027097893056, 0.06681896992746128, 1.3832071513586153e-06, 0.19356039234965589, 0.0021185430532508352, 0.05902972938367169, 0.0, 2.6377211038522678e-06, 0.05016253610261758, 0.04908746156829147, 0.0021970113738080423, 0.08073960198907151, 0.0, 0.040199758618962744, 0.0012580340784104018, 0.1709371036395805, 0.04385454721584218, 0.027613843482245694, 0.032328394417630954, 0.05468098457549677, 1.368606247552607e-09, 0.00174692406555169, 0.0, 0.09962233608522615, 0.0002387577569182164, 1.6068621286598698e-08, 0.029753242720308853, 0.013769125791935625, 0.09583882801992502, 0.0, 0.021336589157193667, 0.0004187337659302756, 0.03164310497852206, 0.7116678653371693, 0.008474100433829799, 0.0, 0.01603587462302694, 0.0023127138388373157, 0.03175292624294459, 0.018269614379527968, 0.4359338622052054, 0.0, 0.003687863489700647, 0.09040143431261215, 0.0, 2.5073514343626425e-06, 0.027570266908955154, 0.0034331735042219774, 0.035758466315694966, 0.0261784885266984, 0.15636105304816678, 0.01646079793755455, 0.02747783210569301, 0.000983612840031833, 0.03433188850179865, 1.4909016045904159e-05, 0.0013272417645615964, 0.0, 0.09210302445959537, 0.03384935502109052, 0.004379687650717187, 0.0, 0.0001290845140867805, 0.03593454459961837, 0.01720848948479715, 5.302333396330768e-06, 0.004247132444920166, 0.0068083022911782235, 0.024534255061072967, 0.0, 0.01521701310271471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17409552258436517, 0.008335898802436553, 0.00028262746547326733, 0.0, 0.005771872329684744, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1259174443582077e-07, 0.0, 0.11793700203023263 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 10.799935290149264, "peer_score": 10.442013286763434, "coverage": 0.9998796345552381, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998796345552381, "spot_peer_score": 14.89030214919003, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 10.799935290149264, "peer_archived_score": 10.442013286763434, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.89030214919003, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287750.437895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 517, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287750.437895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 517, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.967137721903711, 0.03286227809628909 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1592, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of the end of 2023, the legal landscape for cannabis in the United States has undergone significant changes, marking a departure from previous years. Recreational marijuana is now legal in 24 states and the District of Columbia. This represents a substantial increase from the earlier status when it was legal in only 9 states and DC. Additionally, medical marijuana has been legalized in 40 states and the District of Columbia.\n\nWill this changing landscape at the state level influence federal policy? The Schedule I classification, as defined by the Controlled Substances Act, is reserved for substances with a high potential for abuse, no currently accepted medical use in treatment in the United States, and a lack of accepted safety for use under medical supervision. Given the growing acceptance and legalization of cannabis at the state level, there is increasing debate and speculation about potential changes to its federal classification." } ] }
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