Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3220
{ "count": 5980, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3240", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3200", "results": [ { "id": 17498, "title": "Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?", "short_title": "Greece vs. Turkey War", "url_title": "Greece vs. Turkey War", "slug": "greece-vs-turkey-war", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-16T02:13:47.078192Z", "published_at": "2023-09-23T21:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T16:08:04.894318Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-23T21:48:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-23T21:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17498, "title": "Will an armed conflict between Greece and/or Turkey and/or Cyprus cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2035?", "created_at": "2023-06-16T02:13:47.078192Z", "open_time": "2023-09-23T21:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-24T12:57:22.596006Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-24T12:57:22.596006Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Greece and Turkey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece%E2%80%93Turkey_relations) have a long history of hostilities between each other. Greece, which was once under the rule of the Ottoman empire, only gained its independence in the 1820s. Since then, tensions have generally been high between the two nations and have resulted in military conflicts in the past, such as the Balkan wars, Greco-Turkish wars, and Turkish invasion of Cyprus. Currently, the [Aegean sea dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_dispute) is at the center of Greco-Turkish tensions, with Turkey asserting that the Greek military presence on certain Aegean islands violates the 1923 [Treaty of Lausanne](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lausanne). In response, Turkey has conducted numerous air sorties into Greek airspace, and has disputed Greek and Cypriot claims over their exclusive economic zones.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 deaths in Greece, Turkey, and/or Cyprus as a result of state-based violence between these nations within a one-year period prior to the resolution date. For the purpose of this question, the [Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Cyprus) will be regarded as if it were part of Turkey. If such a conflict begins less than one year prior to the resolution date, deaths which occur after that date will not be counted. If this does not occur before 12 AM on January 1, 2035, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17498, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758384474.007265, "end_time": 1760072676.575881, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.019 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758384474.007265, "end_time": 1760072676.575881, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.019 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.033947728547651664 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.20728428597607368, 3.332683588719063, 2.134420028279104, 2.3255003896377975, 0.4280793017619756, 2.4880188856925307, 1.5413442037691838, 0.04888313629975682, 0.025290490754560285, 0.0, 0.07739348047006786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013393291873889481, 0.06417385724540618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0862062439156513, 0.0, 0.011157123373592481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005849328395348274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289290.301275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289290.301275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9950029682852851, 0.004997031714714905 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Greece and Turkey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greece%E2%80%93Turkey_relations) have a long history of hostilities between each other. Greece, which was once under the rule of the Ottoman empire, only gained its independence in the 1820s. Since then, tensions have generally been high between the two nations and have resulted in military conflicts in the past, such as the Balkan wars, Greco-Turkish wars, and Turkish invasion of Cyprus. Currently, the [Aegean sea dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegean_dispute) is at the center of Greco-Turkish tensions, with Turkey asserting that the Greek military presence on certain Aegean islands violates the 1923 [Treaty of Lausanne](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lausanne). In response, Turkey has conducted numerous air sorties into Greek airspace, and has disputed Greek and Cypriot claims over their exclusive economic zones." }, { "id": 17470, "title": "Will voter turnout for the 2023 presidential elections in Guatemala increase from the 2019 rates?", "short_title": "2023 Guatemalan Turnout Increase?", "url_title": "2023 Guatemalan Turnout Increase?", "slug": "2023-guatemalan-turnout-increase", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-13T22:13:19.927187Z", "published_at": "2023-06-15T14:07:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.398125Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-15T14:07:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-23T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-15T14:07:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17470, "title": "Will voter turnout for the 2023 presidential elections in Guatemala increase from the 2019 rates?", "created_at": "2023-06-13T22:13:19.927187Z", "open_time": "2023-06-15T14:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-17T14:07:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-17T14:07:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-23T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As Guatemala gears up for the 2023 Presidential Election, voters will be faced with a diverse field of nearly two dozen candidates looking to replace President Alejandro Giammattei. Polls suggest a divided electorate with no clear frontrunner. The three leading candidates in the polls are former diplomat and Congressman Edmond Mulet of Cabal, ex-legislator Zury Ríos of Valor, and two-time presidential runner-up and former First Lady Sandra Torres of the National Unity of Hope. ([Source](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-guatemalas-2023-presidential-election))\n\nHowever, the choices for voters do not include three potential candidates whose applications were rejected by the Supreme Court earlier this year, with Carlos Pineda's opposition campaign [suspended just last month](https://apnews.com/article/guatemala-elections-carlos-pineda-df6ee50218f10b5fc8398a7531ea2d39) after gaining popularity.\n\nThe lack of democratic choice has led to [reports of disillusionment](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/who-has-the-edge-in-guatemalas-presidential-race/) and could affect voter turnout.\n\n\"Turnout in the past 11 elections averaged 57 percent and hit 62 percent in the 2019 first-round presidential vote.\" ([Source](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-guatemalas-2023-presidential-election))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the voter turnout rate reported by ElectionGuide by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems for the June 25, 2023 presidential elections in Guatemala is greater than [62.16%](https://www.electionguide.org/countries/id/90/); the turnout rate reported for the 2019 presidential elections. The rate is based on the first-round vote.", "fine_print": "If no turnout rate is reported by July 1st, 2023, this question will be annulled so as to be excluded from tournament results.", "post_id": 17470, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687481416.273885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687481416.273885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3378569710865073 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.401381885905608, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3564652606676009, 0.07805035281635142, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.5564643069414512, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687506203.322959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687506203.322959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8879373131651213, 0.11206268683487874 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As Guatemala gears up for the 2023 Presidential Election, voters will be faced with a diverse field of nearly two dozen candidates looking to replace President Alejandro Giammattei. Polls suggest a divided electorate with no clear frontrunner. The three leading candidates in the polls are former diplomat and Congressman Edmond Mulet of Cabal, ex-legislator Zury Ríos of Valor, and two-time presidential runner-up and former First Lady Sandra Torres of the National Unity of Hope. ([Source](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-guatemalas-2023-presidential-election))\n\nHowever, the choices for voters do not include three potential candidates whose applications were rejected by the Supreme Court earlier this year, with Carlos Pineda's opposition campaign [suspended just last month](https://apnews.com/article/guatemala-elections-carlos-pineda-df6ee50218f10b5fc8398a7531ea2d39) after gaining popularity.\n\nThe lack of democratic choice has led to [reports of disillusionment](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/who-has-the-edge-in-guatemalas-presidential-race/) and could affect voter turnout.\n\n\"Turnout in the past 11 elections averaged 57 percent and hit 62 percent in the 2019 first-round presidential vote.\" ([Source](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-guatemalas-2023-presidential-election))" }, { "id": 17469, "title": "Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Reddit API Pricing Change Before July 1?", "url_title": "Reddit API Pricing Change Before July 1?", "slug": "reddit-api-pricing-change-before-july-1", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-13T22:01:36.022761Z", "published_at": "2023-06-15T14:01:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.646544Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-15T14:01:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-15T14:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17469, "title": "Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-13T22:01:36.022761Z", "open_time": "2023-06-15T14:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-16T11:32:26.254395Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-16T11:32:26.254395Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its [Application Programming Interface](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API) (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This [led to an outcry](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/8/23754780/reddit-api-updates-changes-news-announcements) from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.\n\nThe developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, [leading to a coordinated protest](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/8/23754780/reddit-api-updates-changes-news-announcements) involving [more than 8,000 Reddit communities](https://reddark.untone.uk/), including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.\n\nReddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has [remained resolute](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/9/23755640/reddit-api-changes-apps-apollo-shut-down-ama-spez-steve-huffman) regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an [Ask Me Anything (AMA) session](https://www.reddit.com/r/reddit/comments/145bram/addressing_the_community_about_changes_to_our_api/) and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's [recent layoffs](https://news.yahoo.com/reddit-laying-off-5-workforce-210002199.html) and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.\n\n*Background co-written with ChatGPT.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, Reddit announces changes or a delay of implementation to the pricing of its newly announced [data API fees](https://www.reddit.com/r/reddit/comments/145bram/addressing_the_community_about_changes_to_our_api/) for apps that require higher usage. The pricing will be considered to have changed or delayed if Reddit announces any of the following:\n\n* That they will charge anything other than \"$0.24 per 1K API calls\" or an equivalent amount.\n* Any change to their threshold for free API usage of \"100 queries per minute per OAuth client id if you are using OAuth authentication and 10 queries per minute if you are not using OAuth authentication\".\n* That the new pricing will take effect on a date later than July 1, 2023.\n\nOther rates or implementation dates reported to be negotiated with individual organizations do not qualify, this question is asking about the broader official fee structure policy. Metaculus will make the final determination as to whether an announcement qualifies and may **annul** the question in the event it is unclear whether an announcement meets these criteria.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17469, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688159113.590374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688159113.590374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015288522674587983 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.339418604877951, 6.673435558047636, 1.3986559054320364, 0.0, 0.5754128625663821, 0.4595833857422139, 0.5103060177204166, 0.10462556952336086, 0.01936531092725104, 0.034166571748472256, 0.06652283587598916, 0.0022076100250565805, 0.01072112851880902, 0.021381004391399547, 0.0026208098393045902, 0.006274330055098322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11177836887657405, 0.037350175802999215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005367069401959898, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009641420590999903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001511304389081846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015789022061289532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.814975247322812, "coverage": 0.9999615206138136, "baseline_score": 76.52069297830573, "spot_peer_score": 20.24754634281352, "peer_archived_score": 9.814975247322812, "baseline_archived_score": 76.52069297830573, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.24754634281352 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688159113.617879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688159113.617879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993811808701115, 0.000618819129888474 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 263, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 2023, Reddit announced new terms for its [Application Programming Interface](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API) (API), the tool through which developers of third-party apps access Reddit's data. This change included the introduction of pricing for API usage, a significant departure from the previous practice of providing the API for free. This [led to an outcry](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/8/23754780/reddit-api-updates-changes-news-announcements) from both developers and users of third-party Reddit apps, as these changes could result in substantial costs for developers and the potential shutdown of many popular third-party apps.\n\nThe developer of the popular third-party app, Apollo for Reddit, Christian Selig, stated he would be liable for an annual cost of $20 million under the new terms. This revelation sparked widespread discontent among Reddit users, [leading to a coordinated protest](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/8/23754780/reddit-api-updates-changes-news-announcements) involving [more than 8,000 Reddit communities](https://reddark.untone.uk/), including some of the largest and most active, going dark. Some communities have pledged to remain private indefinitely until Reddit makes changes.\n\nReddit's CEO, Steve Huffman, has [remained resolute](https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/9/23755640/reddit-api-changes-apps-apollo-shut-down-ama-spez-steve-huffman) regarding the API changes, emphasizing in an [Ask Me Anything (AMA) session](https://www.reddit.com/r/reddit/comments/145bram/addressing_the_community_about_changes_to_our_api/) and internal memos that the company must proceed with the changes. This stance is perceived as part of Reddit's broader effort to increase profitability, especially given the company's [recent layoffs](https://news.yahoo.com/reddit-laying-off-5-workforce-210002199.html) and plans to break even next year. However, the approach has escalated user dissatisfaction, with some speculating that the changes are an attempt to limit the viability of third-party apps and encourage users to migrate to the official Reddit app.\n\n*Background co-written with ChatGPT.*" }, { "id": 17446, "title": "Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025?", "short_title": "Hybrid and remote work in 2025?", "url_title": "Hybrid and remote work in 2025?", "slug": "hybrid-and-remote-work-in-2025", "author_id": 147104, "author_username": "sspadoni", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-11T18:42:46.518764Z", "published_at": "2023-06-17T14:35:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.619888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-17T14:35:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T19:31:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-17T14:35:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17446, "title": "Will the majority of companies in the United States offer remote or hybrid work options in 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-11T18:42:46.518764Z", "open_time": "2023-06-17T14:35:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-19T14:35:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-19T14:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T19:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-31T19:36:30.518373Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Today, many companies offer remote work from home or part-time hybrid work from home ([Fortune](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwidhMXn67v_AhXGk4kEHUSbBOUQFnoECB4QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2023%2F05%2F09%2Fhybrid-work-becoming-norm-bosses-workers%2F&usg=AOvVaw3mQbAQ1djZC1ah_TiKenIK)) Following the Covid 19 pandemic, many large companies has continued to offer fully remote or part-time hybrid remote work options.\n\nThe Flex Index tracks office requirements for nearly 4,000 companies. As of [Q2, 2023](https://www.canva.com/design/DAFhIO54xwc/view?utm_content=/DAFhIO54xwc&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link&utm_source=homepage_design_menu#8), 28% of companies tracked are \"fully flexible,\" and an additional 30% are \"structured hybrid.\"\n\n| Office Requirements | % of Flex Index Companies | Category | \n|-----|----------|-----------|\n|Fully Remote | 7% | Fully Flexible |\n|Employee's Choice | 21% | Fully Flexible |\n|Minimum Days / Week | 18% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Specific Days / Week | 6% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Minimum & Specific Days | 3% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Minimum % of Time | 2% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Full Time In Office | 42% | Full Time In Office |\n\nAccording to the Flex Index:\n\n> The percentage of US companies that are Full Time In Office dropped from 49% in Q1 2023 to 42% in Q2 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the majority of companies in the [Flex Index](https://www.flex.scoopforwork.com/companies) offer \"fully flexible\" or \"structured hybrid\" work options, as reported in the first \"[Flex Report](https://www.canva.com/design/DAFhIO54xwc/view?utm_content=/DAFhIO54xwc&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link&utm_source=homepage_design_menu#1)\" for 2025.", "fine_print": "If no Flex Report or similar report is issued by Scoop in 2025, the question will be annulled.\n\nThe first Flex Report for 2025 is expected to be the Q1 2025 Flex Report, but if Scoop publishes the report on a different cadence (for instance, an annual report), the question will resolve based on the first report covering 2025 in that cadence.", "post_id": 17446, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743105455.427432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743105455.427432, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.760160755635055 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06594039540813919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025253159325845955, 0.46916959902833105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05724278302464458, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7517525441979407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.2168121871892493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 1.3023063220827358, 0.0978269360296038, 1.6372422406243536, 0.5854149758062843, 0.0, 1.7672513083928625, 0.03598851855808508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1999907045575855, 0.0, 0.04939379203556264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6854157086790326, 0.030314528419522604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9235250802035939, 0.39086599043581904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5128863128011775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8980219979843838 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.97897620305604, "peer_score": 1.9175774192712383, "coverage": 0.9999322927215389, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999322927215389, "spot_peer_score": -10.539811212386917, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 46.97897620305604, "peer_archived_score": 1.9175774192712383, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.539811212386917, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289677.676362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289677.676362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2680815155466578, 0.7319184844533422 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Today, many companies offer remote work from home or part-time hybrid work from home ([Fortune](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwidhMXn67v_AhXGk4kEHUSbBOUQFnoECB4QAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Ffortune.com%2F2023%2F05%2F09%2Fhybrid-work-becoming-norm-bosses-workers%2F&usg=AOvVaw3mQbAQ1djZC1ah_TiKenIK)) Following the Covid 19 pandemic, many large companies has continued to offer fully remote or part-time hybrid remote work options.\n\nThe Flex Index tracks office requirements for nearly 4,000 companies. As of [Q2, 2023](https://www.canva.com/design/DAFhIO54xwc/view?utm_content=/DAFhIO54xwc&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link&utm_source=homepage_design_menu#8), 28% of companies tracked are \"fully flexible,\" and an additional 30% are \"structured hybrid.\"\n\n| Office Requirements | % of Flex Index Companies | Category | \n|-----|----------|-----------|\n|Fully Remote | 7% | Fully Flexible |\n|Employee's Choice | 21% | Fully Flexible |\n|Minimum Days / Week | 18% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Specific Days / Week | 6% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Minimum & Specific Days | 3% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Minimum % of Time | 2% | Structured Hybrid |\n|Full Time In Office | 42% | Full Time In Office |\n\nAccording to the Flex Index:\n\n> The percentage of US companies that are Full Time In Office dropped from 49% in Q1 2023 to 42% in Q2 2023." }, { "id": 17443, "title": "Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?", "short_title": "5x less GPT hallucination by June 30, 2025", "url_title": "5x less GPT hallucination by June 30, 2025", "slug": "5x-less-gpt-hallucination-by-june-30-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-11T16:17:57.585018Z", "published_at": "2023-06-12T20:29:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.566288Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-12T20:29:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:27:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-12T20:29:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2344, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Technical Benchmarks", "slug": "ai-technical-benchmarks", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/technical.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:46:19.591280Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17443, "title": "Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-11T16:17:57.585018Z", "open_time": "2023-06-12T20:29:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-14T12:44:06.041000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-14T12:44:06.041000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-19T18:24:48.884289Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 10, 2023, Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind, [tweeted](https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/status/1667340253584297992) that \"LLM hallucinations will be largely eliminated by 2025.\" He elaborated this meant 80% accuracy by June 30, 2025, though Gary Marcus, Riley Goodside, and others responded this bar was way too low - current accuracy is ~75% or ~59% depending on the benchmark.\n\nThe [GPT-4 paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774.pdf), in section 5 on \"Limitations\", describes the problem of hallucinations, i.e. producing seemingly-reasonable text that is factually incorrect.\n\nGPT-4 uses two evals for factuality. One is an internal OpenAI set of \"adversarially-designed factuality evaluations\", Figure 6, on which GPT-4 scored ~75% across 9 domains, compared to ~55% for GPT-3.5.\n\nThe other is a public benchmark, TruthfulQA, which \"tests the model’s ability to separate fact from an adversarially-selected set of incorrect statements\", in Figure 7, on which GPT-4 scored ~59%, compared to ~47% for GPT-3.5-turbo.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by June 30, 2025, OpenAI releases an LLM product or API that claims it scores >=95% on its internal factual eval, _OR_ >= 92% on TruthfulQA, and **NO** otherwise.\n\n\"LLM product or API\" here will be interpreted broadly. For example, if the system that reaches this eval does so by first generating LLM output, and then subsequently verifying that output before showing it to users or returning it in the API, that would qualify.\n\n\"Releases\" means the product or API must be available to the public in some capacity. A limited beta suffices as long as third party users can verify the claims OpenAI makes. A paper alone, or a model without an interface or API, are not sufficient.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17443, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751302422.30745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751302422.30745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.18723848842879698 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0169570718930754, 0.0, 1.939181932879249, 0.4543454582350361, 0.0, 1.4079583975732062, 0.34239276344906866, 0.0, 0.5577739462638029, 0.0, 3.742644284672452, 0.0, 0.25493404373763123, 0.0, 0.4428737128754306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4752119315139325, 0.5212472552187034, 0.0, 0.7065915762296371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27911442493934324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31130818077712485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252827702246184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00786676606165154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18722490586019797, 0.0038854741463503957, 0.0, 0.020715058604276908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42624572320835036, 0.0, 0.1470125282415746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.010717274662964819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5310696293510572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07338944213225126, 0.0, 0.008634060160896012, 0.0, 0.014145727934610995, 0.04978706836786394, 0.07317984826329925, 0.0960250916311845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016130931261017813, 0.060576540743882155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10564122008794659 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -85.72950926027278, "peer_score": 14.943781920060763, "coverage": 0.9997172171881163, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997172171881163, "spot_peer_score": 44.662387389041605, "spot_baseline_score": 45.41758931858021, "baseline_archived_score": -85.72950926027278, "peer_archived_score": 14.943781920060763, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.662387389041605, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 45.41758931858021 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288807.229629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288807.229629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3320359546105236, 0.6679640453894764 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 215, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 10, 2023, Mustafa Suleyman, cofounder of DeepMind, [tweeted](https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/status/1667340253584297992) that \"LLM hallucinations will be largely eliminated by 2025.\" He elaborated this meant 80% accuracy by June 30, 2025, though Gary Marcus, Riley Goodside, and others responded this bar was way too low - current accuracy is ~75% or ~59% depending on the benchmark.\n\nThe [GPT-4 paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.08774.pdf), in section 5 on \"Limitations\", describes the problem of hallucinations, i.e. producing seemingly-reasonable text that is factually incorrect.\n\nGPT-4 uses two evals for factuality. One is an internal OpenAI set of \"adversarially-designed factuality evaluations\", Figure 6, on which GPT-4 scored ~75% across 9 domains, compared to ~55% for GPT-3.5.\n\nThe other is a public benchmark, TruthfulQA, which \"tests the model’s ability to separate fact from an adversarially-selected set of incorrect statements\", in Figure 7, on which GPT-4 scored ~59%, compared to ~47% for GPT-3.5-turbo." }, { "id": 17434, "title": "Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?", "short_title": "AI Bust by End of 2025", "url_title": "AI Bust by End of 2025", "slug": "ai-bust-by-end-of-2025", "author_id": 113177, "author_username": "clearthis", "coauthors": [ { "id": 136726, "username": "Caracoa" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-11T12:10:20.450851Z", "published_at": "2023-07-01T21:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.151437Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-01T21:08:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-28T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-28T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-01T21:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 111, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17434, "title": "Will an 'AI Bust' or 'AI Winter' Occur by the End of 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-11T12:10:20.450851Z", "open_time": "2023-07-01T21:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-02T17:06:14.102972Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-02T17:06:14.102972Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-28T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-28T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The term \"AI Winter\" refers to a period of disillusionment and decreased interest in artificial intelligence research and development, often signified by a reduction in funding, publications, and media attention. This question aims to forecast whether there will be an \"AI Bust\" or \"AI Winter\" by the end of 2025.\n\nThe indicators to be used for this determination are AI publications, AI investment, and AI google trends mentions. At least 2 out of these 3 metrics need to meet specific criteria to resolve this question positively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if at least two out of the three following criteria are met by the end of 2025:\n\n- \"AI Investment\": Data from the \"Year-over-year Private Investment in AI\" from the [AI Index Report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/) shows a decrease of more than 50% in nominal dollars in 2024 or 2025 compared to the 3-year average of 2020 to 2022.\n\n- \"AI Publications\": Data from the \"Total Number of AI Publications\" from the [AI Index report](https://aiindex.stanford.edu/report/) shows a decrease of more than 50% in 2024 or 2025 compared to the 3-year average of 2020 to 2022.\n\n- \"AI Google Trends\": The worldwide average Google Trends score (out of 100) for the keyword “artificial intelligence” in 2024 is within 5 points of the average score from January 2004 to December 2020 – with the range set from 01.01.2004 to 31.12.2025. \n\nIn the event the AI Index report is no longer available, comparable sources of data will be used for assessment. In the case of disputed or unclear data, the resolution of this question may be postponed until reliable data becomes available.", "fine_print": "To calculate the Google Trends score, Metaculus two different Metaculus admins, residing in different countries will:\n\n1. Search for \"Artificial Intelligence\", as a search term, at [Google Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2004-01-01%202023-06-30&q=Artificial%20intelligence&hl=en)\n2. Set the date range from 01.01.2004 to 31.12.2025 and the location to \"Worldwide\" \n3. Download the data\n4. From this dataset:\n - Calculate the mean Google Trends score for January 2004 through December 2020\n - Calculate the mean Google Trends score for January 2024 through December 2024\n5. The criteria is met if both admins find the mean for 2024 is within 5 points of the mean for 2004 through 2020.", "post_id": 17434, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757096810.061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757096810.061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03554760925750117 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.55001919266604, 5.378983770015392, 1.831503054944007, 0.2899408957523977, 0.2584387699231883, 0.7033067974542367, 0.036249318693393935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1984257194871908, 0.07254409778469167, 0.0, 0.00017334026632215326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023921722330137264, 0.00028694015936094096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1401506214366688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02160422630611479, 0.0, 0.0185148788500146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.336309559322703e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003339650608864187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7461714294025442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01044791386579032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004551470800426355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289848.915545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289848.915545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.999419964570499, 0.0005800354295010607 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 207, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The term \"AI Winter\" refers to a period of disillusionment and decreased interest in artificial intelligence research and development, often signified by a reduction in funding, publications, and media attention. This question aims to forecast whether there will be an \"AI Bust\" or \"AI Winter\" by the end of 2025.\n\nThe indicators to be used for this determination are AI publications, AI investment, and AI google trends mentions. At least 2 out of these 3 metrics need to meet specific criteria to resolve this question positively." }, { "id": 17432, "title": "Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?", "short_title": "AI Solves Millennium Problem before July 2025", "url_title": "AI Solves Millennium Problem before July 2025", "slug": "ai-solves-millennium-problem-before-july-2025", "author_id": 113177, "author_username": "clearthis", "coauthors": [ { "id": 136726, "username": "Caracoa" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-11T12:02:04.421586Z", "published_at": "2023-06-20T15:09:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.821239Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-20T15:09:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-22T12:36:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-20T15:09:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T19:48:43.257817Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T19:48:43.257817Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17432, "title": "Will an AI system solve one of the remaining Millennium Prize Problems before July 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-11T12:02:04.421586Z", "open_time": "2023-06-20T15:09:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-22T15:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-22T15:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-22T12:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-22T13:26:04.931234Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are a set of seven of the most notorious unsolved problems in mathematics that were stated by the [Clay Mathematics Institute](https://www.claymath.org/) in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a $1 million prize awarded by the institute.\n\nAs of now, only one of these problems, the [Poincaré Conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium/poincare-conjecture/), has been solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003. The remaining six problems: Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, Navier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness, Riemann Hypothesis, Yang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap, and P vs NP , still remain unsolved.\n\nThis question asks whether an AI system will be credit to have solved one of these remaining six Millennium Prize Problems by the end of June 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, a Millennium Prize Problem is solved by an AI.\n\nThe question will resolve upon announcement by the Clay Mathematics Institute, or when at least 2 reputable papers (e.g., on arXiv or in peer-reviewed journals) show a correct solution. If the solution is disputed or inconclusive, resolution may be postponed until a consensus is reached.\n\nThe question will resolve **Yes** if most of the major elements of the solution were primarily discovered by the AI. The contribution of humans should be limited to:\n\n- Creating the system\n- Feeding the system with previously established knowledge\n- Stating the problem in a form understandable to the AI\n- Converting the solution into a form understandable by humans\n- Other tasks unrelated to the core of the solution.\n\nThe AI should be understood broadly as any computation system that is not human.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17432, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750958573.723387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750958573.723387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.015224063976554228 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.229315500636979, 2.0014949119162373, 0.75901949692707, 0.05529962581368988, 0.0007321358620784834, 0.028803157970734503, 0.9840349739284768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027314582170858293, 0.6916087364498618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16474672734003346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025944903269425626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.64317528054617, "peer_score": 4.562932087400533, "coverage": 0.9999830802330169, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999830802330169, "spot_peer_score": 8.59621186832426, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 98.64317528054617, "peer_archived_score": 4.562932087400533, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.59621186832426, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288759.904462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288759.904462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 164, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are a set of seven of the most notorious unsolved problems in mathematics that were stated by the [Clay Mathematics Institute](https://www.claymath.org/) in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a $1 million prize awarded by the institute.\n\nAs of now, only one of these problems, the [Poincaré Conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium/poincare-conjecture/), has been solved by Grigori Perelman in 2003. The remaining six problems: Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, Navier–Stokes Existence and Smoothness, Riemann Hypothesis, Yang-Mills Existence and Mass Gap, and P vs NP , still remain unsolved.\n\nThis question asks whether an AI system will be credit to have solved one of these remaining six Millennium Prize Problems by the end of June 2025." }, { "id": 17419, "title": "Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?", "short_title": "AI-driven attack on US election on Facebook", "url_title": "AI-driven attack on US election on Facebook", "slug": "ai-driven-attack-on-us-election-on-facebook", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-10T21:45:57.672244Z", "published_at": "2023-06-11T21:52:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.166111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-11T21:52:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-24T13:25:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-11T21:52:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T11:58:05.999339Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T11:58:05.999339Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17419, "title": "Will Meta claim that there was AI-driven \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" to influence the 2024 US Presidential election?", "created_at": "2023-06-10T21:45:57.672244Z", "open_time": "2023-06-11T21:52:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-13T14:52:04.457242Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-13T14:52:04.457242Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-24T13:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-24T13:40:10.643635Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Starting after the 2016 US Presidential election, Facebook (now Meta) began publishing quarterly reports on adversarial threats on their platforms. For example, in Q1 2023, [Meta claimed](https://about.fb.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Meta-Quarterly-Adversarial-Threat-Report-Q1-2023.pdf) they took action against 6 \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" networks, two of which were from China, though none of which were specifically linked to AI. More background on the process is [here](https://about.fb.com/news/2023/05/metas-adversarial-threat-report-first-quarter-2023/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, in Meta's 2024 Q4 Quarterly Adversarial Threat Report, Meta claims that there was at least one \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" that \n\n* specifically pertained to the 2024 US Presidential election, and\n* Meta suspects was primarily conducted via AI.\n\n\"Pertained to the 2024 US Presidential election\" will be interpreted broadly - could be misinformation about candidates, about voting practices, about voting tallies, about fraud, etc.\n\n\"Primarily conducted via AI\" here means that Meta suspects that the \"inauthentic behavior\" was primarily written by AI, not humans. Presumably, but not necessarily, this means a large language model (LLM) attack involving a large amount of content.\n\nMeta need not confirm their presumptions. For the question to resolve positively it suffices that the Meta report claims as much.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17419, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735653321.469515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735653321.469515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.5997660277044105 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2747768219089708, 0.0, 0.03279680079640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8271656314925541, 0.5973268071867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13922075738296308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29591885022969616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12444141738618236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.07317984826329925, 1.0, 0.0, 0.054969296976803916, 0.0685329747084786, 0.016130931261017813, 0.0, 0.010717274662964819, 0.0, 0.15951999612965959, 1.7284426266020598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670788722041806, 0.1349473699716188, 1.858058161595348, 0.9391819328792491, 0.0, 0.3949752445246349, 0.21177602508639826, 0.8816217886564627, 0.23632165058305657, 0.17290689620064964, 0.0960250916311845, 0.6212475234139742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.423766971031684, 0.0, 0.16496423421455103, 0.18722490586019797, 0.2612988819822005, 0.955954887117483, 0.0, 0.5335929395413765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02334530670111975, 0.004728020377454089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02639069333381832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020883674933696462 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -83.74097897353502, "peer_score": 11.658005548443485, "coverage": 0.9984325970801696, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9984325970801696, "spot_peer_score": -12.841194864073747, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -83.74097897353502, "peer_archived_score": 11.658005548443485, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.841194864073747, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287571.445871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287571.445871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.35179015199909325, 0.6482098480009068 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 158, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Starting after the 2016 US Presidential election, Facebook (now Meta) began publishing quarterly reports on adversarial threats on their platforms. For example, in Q1 2023, [Meta claimed](https://about.fb.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Meta-Quarterly-Adversarial-Threat-Report-Q1-2023.pdf) they took action against 6 \"coordinated inauthentic behavior\" networks, two of which were from China, though none of which were specifically linked to AI. More background on the process is [here](https://about.fb.com/news/2023/05/metas-adversarial-threat-report-first-quarter-2023/)." }, { "id": 17416, "title": "Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?", "short_title": "Twitter AI content policy by 2025", "url_title": "Twitter AI content policy by 2025", "slug": "twitter-ai-content-policy-by-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-10T21:30:36.689889Z", "published_at": "2023-06-11T21:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.253374Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-11T21:46:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T05:03:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-11T21:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T11:58:05.999339Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T11:58:05.999339Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17416, "title": "Will Twitter announce a policy of marking tweets as possibly AI generated before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-10T21:30:36.689889Z", "open_time": "2023-06-11T21:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-12T22:08:06.600428Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-12T22:08:06.600428Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T05:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T05:05:25.810981Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Common usage of ChatGPT by OpenAI, launched in Nov 2022, greatly reduces the difficulty of artificially generating text. One possible implication of this is an increase in AI-written text on social media, which may challenge norms and assumptions about such platforms.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2024, Twitter formally announces a policy where some text content will be marked as possibly written by AI, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nResolution will be driven by policy as claimed to be in place by Twitter. Doesn't matter how often this label is used, or for which content, or for which users (for example only in the US, only about US elections, only for Twitter Blue users).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17416, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671316.548768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671316.548768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04509759464446119 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.091660960206493, 1.5988132641453747, 0.8291985112032718, 0.6370871601177915, 0.0, 0.869101199159509, 0.42354655644325456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25493404373763123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10482768695740607, 0.0, 0.020715058604276908, 0.0, 0.47795229161890784, 0.17290689620064964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17486289448450812, 0.12444141738618236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08389712292626407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.054969296976803916, 0.0, 0.004728020377454089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02334530670111975, 0.06663686154666806, 0.0, 0.009247748063936412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09705693318629793, 0.0450032524825526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08023668698929762, 0.005675634729541413, 0.06589893561333812, 0.0, 0.03668227494275084, 0.0, 0.012345684322673096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042354385821161813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007925084159090202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013798417812875229, 0.015057609900165511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001896113161810545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003138745684197452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 39.4769039104107, "peer_score": 31.448499858414426, "coverage": 0.9995288190084501, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9995288190084501, "spot_peer_score": 38.55576627897163, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 39.4769039104107, "peer_archived_score": 31.448499858414426, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.55576627897163, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286989.046065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286989.046065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9918638057269599, 0.008136194273040165 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 171, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Common usage of ChatGPT by OpenAI, launched in Nov 2022, greatly reduces the difficulty of artificially generating text. One possible implication of this is an increase in AI-written text on social media, which may challenge norms and assumptions about such platforms." }, { "id": 17410, "title": "Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?", "short_title": "AI Arms Race Meme Persists 2025", "url_title": "AI Arms Race Meme Persists 2025", "slug": "ai-arms-race-meme-persists-2025", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119604, "username": "Lawrence" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-10T12:58:24.662465Z", "published_at": "2023-06-21T14:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.732418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-21T14:31:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-04T03:27:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-21T14:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17410, "title": "Will there be discussion in mainstream media about an AI arms race in March 2025?", "created_at": "2023-06-10T12:58:24.662465Z", "open_time": "2023-06-21T14:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-23T14:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-23T14:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-02T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-04-04T03:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-04-04T03:47:40.344034Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February, 2023, TIME Magazine published an article titled “[The AI Arms Race is On. Start Worrying](https://time.com/6255952/ai-impact-chatgpt-microsoft-google/)”.* Around the same time, other media outlets, such as [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/technology/chatgpt-openai-artificial-intelligence.html) and [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-stream/2023/6/6/is-an-ai-arms-race-underway) published articles expressing a similar AI arms race meme.\n\nSome experts view the meme of an AI arms race as dangerous because it could become self-fulfilling. For example, the meme may falsely lead AI actors to believe that they are in a race and to act accordingly, when in reality the dynamic might be different (e.g., not zero sum). An AI race is likely more dangerous than a controlled ascent up the AI capabilities R&D ladder because a race may lead AI actors to cut corners and skip on safety measures as they develop ever more powerful AI, with unknown capabilities. (For background on how powerful AI might be dangerous, see, for example, \"[Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/pRkFkzwKZ2zfa3R6H/without-specific-countermeasures-the-easiest-path-to)\".)\n\n[Pi Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day), the 14th of March, has historically been a day of big AI releases, with Pi Day 2023 being the day [OpenAI announced GPT-4](https://mashable.com/article/openai-gpt-4-release-date-announcement) and [Anthropic launched Claude](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/14/23640056/anthropic-ai-chatbot-claude-google-launch).\n\n[fine-print]\n*At least, this was the title viewed from a browser. The title once in the article itself was \"The AI Arms Race is Changing Everything\".\n[/fine-print]", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, in March of 2025, either The Economist, the New York Times, or the BBC publishes a story that references race dynamics in the context of AI development. Note that a story claiming that AI isn't or shouldn't be an arms race does **not** trigger positive resolution.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17410, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743461201.035006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743461201.035006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7612494685206289 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07370291962268603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08121384822413508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03269318137797285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31187544366267334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7580871149292656, 0.19882764110903303, 0.0, 0.2806683844843032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014035409334259398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045849597469312386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2618229640797087, 0.0, 0.0033424547903668812, 0.03881022225732753, 0.0, 0.5595211201919355, 0.0, 0.02078240075915524, 0.5066828489144001, 0.0, 0.2534636649498968, 0.0, 0.14169919136317252, 0.0, 0.21237997280658333, 0.9815445601502304, 0.423785636031633, 1.250166222739604, 0.10678389500756706, 0.8820658822120351, 2.1942684358019275, 0.16865797889463335, 0.29290778199668294, 0.042207751502632146, 0.0, 0.17249459911753606, 0.0, 0.18603199268747062, 0.014429939125401253, 0.8477653512508476, 0.117722722998445, 0.00646051809270714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2453341269662794, 0.008178451525312864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9467522735592828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.151962715455188 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.204162877980814, "peer_score": 4.525747156204128, "coverage": 0.9999285900473485, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999285900473485, "spot_peer_score": -1.3250787647228361, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 41.204162877980814, "peer_archived_score": 4.525747156204128, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.3250787647228361, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289134.30771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289134.30771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6314797418445448, 0.36852025815545514 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 204, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February, 2023, TIME Magazine published an article titled “[The AI Arms Race is On. Start Worrying](https://time.com/6255952/ai-impact-chatgpt-microsoft-google/)”.* Around the same time, other media outlets, such as [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/technology/chatgpt-openai-artificial-intelligence.html) and [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-stream/2023/6/6/is-an-ai-arms-race-underway) published articles expressing a similar AI arms race meme.\n\nSome experts view the meme of an AI arms race as dangerous because it could become self-fulfilling. For example, the meme may falsely lead AI actors to believe that they are in a race and to act accordingly, when in reality the dynamic might be different (e.g., not zero sum). An AI race is likely more dangerous than a controlled ascent up the AI capabilities R&D ladder because a race may lead AI actors to cut corners and skip on safety measures as they develop ever more powerful AI, with unknown capabilities. (For background on how powerful AI might be dangerous, see, for example, \"[Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/pRkFkzwKZ2zfa3R6H/without-specific-countermeasures-the-easiest-path-to)\".)\n\n[Pi Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pi_Day), the 14th of March, has historically been a day of big AI releases, with Pi Day 2023 being the day [OpenAI announced GPT-4](https://mashable.com/article/openai-gpt-4-release-date-announcement) and [Anthropic launched Claude](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/14/23640056/anthropic-ai-chatbot-claude-google-launch).\n\n[fine-print]\n*At least, this was the title viewed from a browser. The title once in the article itself was \"The AI Arms Race is Changing Everything\".\n[/fine-print]" }, { "id": 17408, "title": "Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?", "short_title": "US fine or damages for AI training data usage", "url_title": "US fine or damages for AI training data usage", "slug": "us-fine-or-damages-for-ai-training-data-usage", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-09T17:02:53.591356Z", "published_at": "2023-06-10T19:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:47.718247Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-10T19:54:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-10T19:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17408, "title": "Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-06-09T17:02:53.591356Z", "open_time": "2023-06-10T19:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-12T19:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-12T19:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the release of GPT-3 in 2020, there has been speculation that training large AI models on massive amounts of internet data does not respect copyright law.\n\n[A group in late 2022](https://githubcopilotlitigation.com/) \"filed a class-action lawsuit in US federal court in San Francisco, CA on behalf of a proposed class of possibly millions of GitHub users. We are challenging the legality of GitHub Copilot (and a related product, OpenAI Codex, which powers Copilot).\" They contend that \"By training their AI systems on public GitHub repositories (though based on their public statements, possibly much more) we contend that the defendants have violated the legal rights of a vast number of creators who posted code or other work under certain open-source licenses on GitHub.\"\n\nLawsuits about this might have a major effect on the ability or willingness of Frontier Labs to train large models, or the cost of doing so if they have to pay providers of the data (somehow). On June 4, [Glen Weyl tweeted](https://twitter.com/glenweyl/status/1665495324713164801) \"these types of lawsuits will have important effects on the development of the industry even if your concern is with the long term\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2025, either of the following happens, and **NO** otherwise:\n\n* A US court orders a company to pay >=$100M to claimants because of how they used data to train a large AI model, or \n* A US court fines a company >=$100M for breaking a law related to how they used data to train a large AI model.\n\nBoth of these will be interpreted broadly, but must in the ruling be explicitly about training - not about serving. For example, if a court fined YouTube for discriminating against some people by the nature of their recommendation algorithm, even though the source of the discrimination is likely in the training data, this would not qualify.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17408, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758596976.874888, "end_time": 1759146228.354448, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.023 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758596976.874888, "end_time": 1759146228.354448, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.023 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07995734688767299 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.6940822737463597, 0.492383508225005, 0.7095347889677784, 1.0868056800817743, 0.01831563888873418, 2.3784940710439253, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.15306473011963811, 0.6490564168471212, 1.2480187074657416, 0.0, 0.4061712190803831, 0.0, 0.10790053015062288, 0.06833212923320346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11919235601565477, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.08472267617375948, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.216998672059816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288494.717745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288494.717745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9827298258475395, 0.01727017415246046 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 173, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the release of GPT-3 in 2020, there has been speculation that training large AI models on massive amounts of internet data does not respect copyright law.\n\n[A group in late 2022](https://githubcopilotlitigation.com/) \"filed a class-action lawsuit in US federal court in San Francisco, CA on behalf of a proposed class of possibly millions of GitHub users. We are challenging the legality of GitHub Copilot (and a related product, OpenAI Codex, which powers Copilot).\" They contend that \"By training their AI systems on public GitHub repositories (though based on their public statements, possibly much more) we contend that the defendants have violated the legal rights of a vast number of creators who posted code or other work under certain open-source licenses on GitHub.\"\n\nLawsuits about this might have a major effect on the ability or willingness of Frontier Labs to train large models, or the cost of doing so if they have to pay providers of the data (somehow). On June 4, [Glen Weyl tweeted](https://twitter.com/glenweyl/status/1665495324713164801) \"these types of lawsuits will have important effects on the development of the industry even if your concern is with the long term\"." }, { "id": 17380, "title": "Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?", "short_title": "Open-source GPT-3 before 2024", "url_title": "Open-source GPT-3 before 2024", "slug": "open-source-gpt-3-before-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:46.480634Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T17:13:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.322287Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T17:13:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:19:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17380, "title": "Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:46.480634Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-09T07:12:29.190817Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-09T07:12:29.190817Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"While Sam is calling for regulation of future models, he didn’t think existing models were dangerous and thought it would be a big mistake to regulate or ban them. He reiterated his belief in the importance of open source and said that OpenAI was considering open-sourcing GPT-3. Part of the reason they hadn’t open-sourced yet was that he was skeptical of how many individuals and companies would have the capability to host and serve large LLMs.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2023, GPT-3 is freely available as open source software, and **NO** otherwise. \n\nThis means that both the weights of the model are open source, as well as the code for training the model. (It does not require the training data, or any code involved in creating or refining the training data, become open source.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17380, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043053.895905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043053.895905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.017702590857072847 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.137878107384056, 7.104183523240856, 0.31575170401083374, 0.06773163967248513, 0.1308267558635556, 0.2801488920263364, 0.05860978263904017, 0.010755654095857752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018701849353929764, 0.04043561307963196, 0.0482962316587873, 0.35736496982613525, 0.0, 0.013168223637877344, 0.20932612500505898, 0.004937664799221555, 0.0006357209650978351, 0.0, 0.018974538489852897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0056879060040344945, 0.005441362644688922, 0.08308560410798951, 0.11313877954956009, 0.012081674919003055, 0.0, 0.0011420111692213952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013530235483674543, 0.0, 0.0026148795004889177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004201224307447123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.24001413823769, "coverage": 0.9996949280595346, "baseline_score": 80.40676759669752, "spot_peer_score": 17.623584653914143, "peer_archived_score": 13.24001413823769, "baseline_archived_score": 80.40676759669752, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.623584653914143 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043053.918324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043053.918324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 221, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"While Sam is calling for regulation of future models, he didn’t think existing models were dangerous and thought it would be a big mistake to regulate or ban them. He reiterated his belief in the importance of open source and said that OpenAI was considering open-sourcing GPT-3. Part of the reason they hadn’t open-sourced yet was that he was skeptical of how many individuals and companies would have the capability to host and serve large LLMs.\"" }, { "id": 17379, "title": "Will OpenAI release a \"product\" after ChatGPT before 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI product after ChatGPT before 2024", "url_title": "OpenAI product after ChatGPT before 2024", "slug": "openai-product-after-chatgpt-before-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:43.800051Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T17:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.126833Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T17:16:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:17:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17379, "title": "Will OpenAI release a \"product\" after ChatGPT before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:43.800051Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-09T05:00:16.530352Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-09T05:00:16.530352Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"Quite a few developers said they were nervous about building with the OpenAI APIs when OpenAI might end up releasing products that are competitive to them. Sam said that OpenAI would not release more products beyond ChatGPT. He said there was a history of great platform companies having a killer app and that ChatGPT would allow them to make the APIs better by being customers of their own product. The vision for ChatGPT is to be a super smart assistant for work but there will be a lot of other GPT use-cases that OpenAI won’t touch.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI launches a \"product\" that meets the following criteria, and **NO** otherwise: \n\n* It is not a version or rebrand of ChatGPT\n* It is a consumer product. For example, we count ChatGPT as a product because it is a web interface that has features like code highlighting, plugins, and back-and-forth chat. APIs (like Whisper), models (like DALLE-2), benchmarks (like Gym), or papers alone are not considered products.\n* It is generally available to the public. Betas qualify if they are open to the public. Restrictions are ok as long as most adults in at least the US can use it. (For example, an iOS-only app would qualify.)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17379, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703875349.687665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.009 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703875349.687665, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.009 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.991, 0.009 ], "means": [ 0.02689529456808745 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.657044602005962, 4.319419639241554, 0.0, 0.2011093313353233, 0.0, 0.5271525541054037, 0.0, 0.09551526241989404, 0.0, 0.02713823006833058, 0.2684365164733542, 0.2596374021764951, 0.0, 0.15995371071740733, 0.0, 0.05946340312670785, 0.015204078447885579, 0.0, 0.02368489080579067, 0.0, 0.1444217100599135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09064533780862685, 0.042664576546170084, 0.017741576519297485, 0.0, 0.1162145989976784, 0.0, 0.00475542490027373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11322890387553386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05634097148935982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003637646323940793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.086447649859559, "coverage": 0.9996991499421087, "baseline_score": 72.65036596722886, "spot_peer_score": 3.7251942412691403, "peer_archived_score": 7.086447649859559, "baseline_archived_score": 72.65036596722886, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.7251942412691403 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008356.876436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008356.876436, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"Quite a few developers said they were nervous about building with the OpenAI APIs when OpenAI might end up releasing products that are competitive to them. Sam said that OpenAI would not release more products beyond ChatGPT. He said there was a history of great platform companies having a killer app and that ChatGPT would allow them to make the APIs better by being customers of their own product. The vision for ChatGPT is to be a super smart assistant for work but there will be a lot of other GPT use-cases that OpenAI won’t touch.\"" }, { "id": 17378, "title": "Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?", "short_title": "Much cheaper GPT-4 before 2024?", "url_title": "Much cheaper GPT-4 before 2024?", "slug": "much-cheaper-gpt-4-before-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:37.801067Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T17:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.121826Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T17:19:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T20:15:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17378, "title": "Will OpenAI reduce the cost of the GPT-4 API by at least 2/3 (<=$0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context) before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:37.801067Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-10T17:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-10T17:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T20:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-06T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T20:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"Sam shared what he saw as OpenAI’s provisional near-term roadmap for the API.\n\n2023: Cheaper and faster GPT-4 — This is their top priority. In general, OpenAI’s aim is to drive “the cost of intelligence” down as far as possible and so they will work hard to continue to reduce the cost of the APIs over time.\"\n\nOpenAI has a history of dramatic price cuts, including a [~2/3 drop in GPT-3's price in August 2022](https://venturebeat.com/ai/openai-is-reducing-the-price-of-the-gpt-3-api-heres-why-it-matters/), and a [~90% drop in GPT-3.5's price in March 2023](https://www.mlyearning.org/chatgpt-api-pricing/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI announces a price of <= $0.01/1k prompt tokens for 8k context window GPT-4, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nIf the size of context windows change, this will use the lowest context window that is at least 8k tokens.\n\nIf pricing is no longer done by the number of prompt tokens, this question will resolve as **ANNULLED**. No pricing by sampled tokens or other methods will be considered.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699635244.475578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699635244.475578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.43 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5700000000000001, 0.43 ], "means": [ 0.4515212431982681 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3427692223916379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3968658204474105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3894365394542207, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 1.5841277243484502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9401599403110579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.578587091032942, "coverage": 0.7329040992795953, "baseline_score": -29.427197195647114, "spot_peer_score": 63.20435196552889, "peer_archived_score": 10.578587091032942, "baseline_archived_score": -29.427197195647114, "spot_peer_archived_score": 63.20435196552889 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699256487.464394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699256487.464394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7037212770687044, 0.29627872293129565 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"Sam shared what he saw as OpenAI’s provisional near-term roadmap for the API.\n\n2023: Cheaper and faster GPT-4 — This is their top priority. In general, OpenAI’s aim is to drive “the cost of intelligence” down as far as possible and so they will work hard to continue to reduce the cost of the APIs over time.\"\n\nOpenAI has a history of dramatic price cuts, including a [~2/3 drop in GPT-3's price in August 2022](https://venturebeat.com/ai/openai-is-reducing-the-price-of-the-gpt-3-api-heres-why-it-matters/), and a [~90% drop in GPT-3.5's price in March 2023](https://www.mlyearning.org/chatgpt-api-pricing/)." }, { "id": 17377, "title": "Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI finetuning API before 2024", "url_title": "OpenAI finetuning API before 2024", "slug": "openai-finetuning-api-before-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:31.797476Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T17:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.637943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T17:22:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-11T20:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-11T20:20:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17377, "title": "Will OpenAI release a finetuning API for GPT-4 before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:31.797476Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-09T06:55:57.633710Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-09T06:55:57.633710Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-11T20:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-11T20:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-11T20:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\r\n\r\nThe interview included the following:\r\n\r\n\"Sam shared what he saw as OpenAI’s provisional near-term roadmap for the API.\r\n\r\n2023: A Finetuning API — The finetuning API will be extended to the latest models but the exact form for this will be shaped by what developers indicate they really want.\"\r\n\r\n[Finetuning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuning_(machine_learning)) is updating a pre-trained machine learning model with new data, such that it performs better on that type of new data. For \"foundational\" models like GPT-4, many people expect finetuning to be critical for many domains, such as software and law.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI releases an API that lets users finetune GPT-4.\r\n\r\n\"Finetune GPT-4\" will be interpreted generally. If OpenAI advertises that the API is for finetuning GPT-4, in a way where the user adds their corpus of training data, that will qualify, regardless of the details of how the finetuning works.\r\n\r\n\"Release\" here means available in a capacity where users can sign up. It may require an application or only allow a certain number of users, but members of the public must be able to at least request access with reasonable expectations of getting it soon.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17377, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703924504.918479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.026 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703924504.918479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.026 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07260807071272388 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.948845399040097, 6.961515267866367, 0.47536717538991013, 0.0, 0.48600933159620147, 0.38178277360703755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49457052976869875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44032882335882917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13317800265805058, 0.07877593890689805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.918800593117664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009641420590999903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08513379411538498, 0.0, 0.05718238516403556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052640372796005884, 0.0, 0.007124099762028338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04445312502789519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040774056763402934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026208098393045902, 0.0, 0.0027443169652525703, 0.0012208548944264495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004087845041439103, 0.00035468804191158816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01936531092725104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037350175802999215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10275685448589009, 0.0, 0.12647521125524824, 0.0, 0.01107634036331263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004168619742933615, 0.0, 0.0030825618759363423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01948027544888472, 0.0919202996362008, 0.0, 0.07282349883545862, 0.0, 0.09324329450494287, 0.0, 0.02356201288525273, 0.0, 0.031209075815422052, 0.04840306567371073, 0.0, 0.02591925143156949, 0.0, 0.06405456818926308 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -9.505011957698017, "coverage": 0.9996891726023592, "baseline_score": -124.89189880716133, "spot_peer_score": 12.809105254537538, "peer_archived_score": -9.505011957698017, "baseline_archived_score": -124.89189880716133, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.809105254537538 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008327.26577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008327.26577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9978460662044869, 0.00215393379551309 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 315, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\r\n\r\nThe interview included the following:\r\n\r\n\"Sam shared what he saw as OpenAI’s provisional near-term roadmap for the API.\r\n\r\n2023: A Finetuning API — The finetuning API will be extended to the latest models but the exact form for this will be shaped by what developers indicate they really want.\"\r\n\r\n[Finetuning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuning_(machine_learning)) is updating a pre-trained machine learning model with new data, such that it performs better on that type of new data. For \"foundational\" models like GPT-4, many people expect finetuning to be critical for many domains, such as software and law." }, { "id": 17376, "title": "Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI Stateful API before 2024", "url_title": "OpenAI Stateful API before 2024", "slug": "openai-stateful-api-before-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:14.979921Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T17:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.831393Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T17:23:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:27:03.608451Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17376, "title": "Will OpenAI release a stateful API to GPT-4 before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-06-07T02:48:14.979921Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T17:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-10T11:18:53.123849Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-10T11:18:53.123849Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-06T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-06T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"2023: A stateful API — When you call the chat API today, you have to repeatedly pass through the same conversation history and pay for the same tokens again and again. In the future there will be a version of the API that remembers the conversation history.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2023, OpenAI releases an API to GPT-4 that \"remembers\" your history without explicitly passing it back in, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nIf unclear, we will defer to whether OpenAI calls the API \"stateful\", and this will be interpreted broadly.\n\n\"Releases\" here means available in a capacity where users can sign up. It may require an application or only allow a certain number of users, but members of the public must be able to at least request access with reasonable expectations of getting it soon.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17376, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702655493.990706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702655493.990706, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.6976966207308413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.06290448966866473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8464681131236458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12458556497060898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08397709005035515, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13615441926470892, 0.0, 0.04583246801941605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17837564508143805, 0.0693425405097108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5975016895580821, 0.0, 1.5847413481297048, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5059711244759617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.3386586773479101, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6059066398566046 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.39527649530049, "coverage": 0.7326512344393683, "baseline_score": 15.685540678799502, "spot_peer_score": 10.266188704306623, "peer_archived_score": 15.39527649530049, "baseline_archived_score": 15.685540678799502, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.266188704306623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699207718.303067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699207718.303067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.32110460632549054, 0.6788953936745095 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 28, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, granted an interview discussing future plans for OpenAI to Raza Habib at humanloop. A few days later, that interview was [taken down](https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans) by the publisher. It is [still available in the internet archive](https://web.archive.org/web/20230531203946/https://humanloop.com/blog/openai-plans).\n\nThe interview included the following:\n\n\"2023: A stateful API — When you call the chat API today, you have to repeatedly pass through the same conversation history and pay for the same tokens again and again. In the future there will be a version of the API that remembers the conversation history.\"" }, { "id": 17373, "title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?", "short_title": "Cybersecurity Laws for Powerful AI by 2026?", "url_title": "Cybersecurity Laws for Powerful AI by 2026?", "slug": "cybersecurity-laws-for-powerful-ai-by-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-06T21:54:08.861913Z", "published_at": "2023-06-07T22:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:25:05.670060Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-07T22:23:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-07T22:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17373, "title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-06-06T21:54:08.861913Z", "open_time": "2023-06-07T22:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-09T22:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-09T22:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.\n\nOne way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”) policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by Dec 31, 2025, there is a federal law which requires all U.S. actors in possession of AI models fitting certain criteria to take measures to secure those models. The law must be designed to promote security of _powerful_ models, rather than, for example, models that might compromise individuals' privacy if stolen. If necessary, this will be decided by a judging panel made up of the Metaculus AI Forecasting team, or, failing that (e.g., because the AI Forecasting team no longer exists), at least 3 Metaculus admins: the judging panel would consider the stated intent of those who proposed the initial version of the bill.", "fine_print": "There may well be overlap between the most powerful models and the models that most compromise privacy. For this question’s resolution, what matters is whether the law is _intended_ to secure _powerful_ models.", "post_id": 17373, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758458309.561924, "end_time": 1759081044.032227, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758458309.561924, "end_time": 1759081044.032227, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22999167452776348 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.46916959902833105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15685721197324565, 0.0, 2.924617111175338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5128863128011775, 0.0, 0.8520233747574918, 0.0, 0.29360034512635746, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8400052738853225, 0.5599024685085519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7228487183092426, 0.21116179823322628, 0.0, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0978269360296038, 0.5639195957469028, 0.0, 0.7504867349522906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08615804177817497, 0.27079169889542204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2168121871892493, 0.016764573440571914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23533388948955763, 0.05724278302464458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025253159325845955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04939379203556264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06594039540813919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08879416995776708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04232921962320499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030314528419522604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289302.780598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289302.780598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6545301699112205, 0.34546983008877946 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 253, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.\n\nOne way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”) policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default." }, { "id": 17372, "title": "Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?", "short_title": "2023 Sierra Leone Elections to Runoff?", "url_title": "2023 Sierra Leone Elections to Runoff?", "slug": "2023-sierra-leone-elections-to-runoff", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-06T20:12:34.908763Z", "published_at": "2023-06-08T20:21:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.932457Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-08T20:21:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-27T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-27T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T20:21:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17372, "title": "Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?", "created_at": "2023-06-06T20:12:34.908763Z", "open_time": "2023-06-08T20:21:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-10T20:21:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-10T20:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-27T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-27T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-27T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-23T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Sierra Leone's Presidential Elections](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/6/1/familiar-faces-concerns-linger-ahead-of-sierra-leones-june-vote) are set for June 24, 2023, with the key contenders being current President Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and Samura Kamara of the All People’s Congress (APC). Bio has formed a strategic alliance with Kandeh Yumkella of the National Grand Coalition (NGC), presenting Bio as the single candidate.\n\nTo win in the first round, a candidate must secure [at least 55%](https://ec.gov.sl/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/FAQ_RUNOFF.pdf) of the total votes. Failing this, the election proceeds to a runoff between the top two candidates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the June 24, 2023, Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone go to a second round. The question will resolve as **No** if any candidate secures 55% or more votes in the first round, thus preventing a runoff.\n\nThe resolution will be based on official announcements from the Electoral Commission for Sierra Leone (ECSL). If the ECSL announces that a runoff will be held, the question will resolve **Yes**. If the ECSL announces a winner after the first round of voting, the question will resolve **No**.\n\nIf the election is postponed or cancelled for any reason, the question will be **annulled.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17372, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687533105.672715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687533105.672715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.584448697620516 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.12257655399756638, 1.7384602599698558, 1.1474307197096802, 0.0, 0.47737054121135125, 0.5901759823955808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9107296279046566, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.6049386242936059, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.056323474121823, "coverage": 0.9999952068856517, "baseline_score": -17.339979917349826, "spot_peer_score": -2.4494561558901564, "peer_archived_score": 8.056323474121823, "baseline_archived_score": -17.339979917349826, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.4494561558901564 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687533105.687528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687533105.687528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.58380332718977, 0.41619667281023004 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Sierra Leone's Presidential Elections](https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2023/6/1/familiar-faces-concerns-linger-ahead-of-sierra-leones-june-vote) are set for June 24, 2023, with the key contenders being current President Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) and Samura Kamara of the All People’s Congress (APC). Bio has formed a strategic alliance with Kandeh Yumkella of the National Grand Coalition (NGC), presenting Bio as the single candidate.\n\nTo win in the first round, a candidate must secure [at least 55%](https://ec.gov.sl/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/FAQ_RUNOFF.pdf) of the total votes. Failing this, the election proceeds to a runoff between the top two candidates." }, { "id": 17370, "title": "Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?", "short_title": "2023 NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals", "url_title": "2023 NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Finals", "slug": "2023-nba-finals-and-stanley-cup-finals", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-06T18:55:28.169932Z", "published_at": "2023-06-07T20:06:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.157850Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-07T20:06:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T02:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-15T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T02:55:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-07T20:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17370, "title": "Will either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 go to a game 7?", "created_at": "2023-06-06T18:55:28.169932Z", "open_time": "2023-06-07T20:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-08T16:43:38.890215Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-08T16:43:38.890215Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T02:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-14T02:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T02:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [NBA Finals](https://www.nba.com/playoffs/2023/the-finals) and the [Stanley Cup Finals](https://www.nhl.com/stanley-cup-playoffs) both feature a best-of-seven series format, which means that a team must win four games to secure the championship. Historically, many series have been decided before reaching a game 7, but some have gone the distance, contributing to some of the most exciting moments in sports history.\n\nThe 2023 NBA Finals are being contested between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat. As of June 6th, the first two games have already been played with both teams winning one game each.\n\nIn the NHL, the Stanley Cup Finals are being played between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers. The Golden Knights currently lead the series 2-0.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either the NBA Finals or the Stanley Cup Finals in 2023 goes to a game 7.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17370, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686722840.045979, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686722840.045979, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05903479579679559 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.253112608132356, 2.1085066982673926, 0.0, 0.5128863128011775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19512018820526095, 0.47653956818359855, 0.14006392172911664, 0.5894707683504208, 1.0160299002357411, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42855776383303873, 0.2168121871892493, 0.2507280135371719, 0.11064264398533052, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06308219652282594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04939379203556264, 0.0978269360296038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05724278302464458, 0.026892035666278073, 0.0, 0.0663030469776077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12469124550422711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.342821929660423, "coverage": 0.7999362607106165, "baseline_score": 48.370972576052765, "spot_peer_score": -19.201203679625, "peer_archived_score": 4.342821929660423, "baseline_archived_score": 48.370972576052765, "spot_peer_archived_score": -19.201203679625 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686707847.837281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686707847.837281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.99320378681199, 0.006796213188009997 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [NBA Finals](https://www.nba.com/playoffs/2023/the-finals) and the [Stanley Cup Finals](https://www.nhl.com/stanley-cup-playoffs) both feature a best-of-seven series format, which means that a team must win four games to secure the championship. Historically, many series have been decided before reaching a game 7, but some have gone the distance, contributing to some of the most exciting moments in sports history.\n\nThe 2023 NBA Finals are being contested between the Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat. As of June 6th, the first two games have already been played with both teams winning one game each.\n\nIn the NHL, the Stanley Cup Finals are being played between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers. The Golden Knights currently lead the series 2-0." }, { "id": 17366, "title": "Will US law deem Ethereum a security before Jan 1, 2030?", "short_title": "Ethereum ruled as \"Security\" by 2030 in U.S.?", "url_title": "Ethereum ruled as \"Security\" by 2030 in U.S.?", "slug": "ethereum-ruled-as-security-by-2030-in-us", "author_id": 129715, "author_username": "job85555", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-06T14:15:15.805448Z", "published_at": "2023-06-17T01:05:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.860864Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-17T01:05:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-17T01:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17366, "title": "Will US law deem Ethereum a security before Jan 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2023-06-06T14:15:15.805448Z", "open_time": "2023-06-17T01:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-19T01:05:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-19T01:05:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ethereum is the second biggest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of approximately $200 billion.\n\nSEC Chair Gary Gensler has said that many crypto tokens [are securities](https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/gensler-sec-speaks-090822), and in June 2023, the SEC charged both [Coinbase](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-102) and [Binance](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-101) with securities-related violations. \n\n> The SEC named 13 total crypto assets trading on and offered by Coinbase that it believes should be treated as stocks and bonds but remain unregistered. The agency also said Coinbase should have registered its staking program, a service that allowed investors to earn returns by staking their crypto tokens. ([Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/06/sec-coinbase-securities-law-violations-00100352))\n\nEthereum was not one of the 13 crypto assets named.\n\nSEC Chair Gensler, at the time a professor at MIT, told hedge funds in 2018 that Ethereum was [not a security](https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/06/12/gensler-video-ethereum-litecoin-not-securities/). Gensler has [declined to state](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/04/19/sec-chair-gensler-declines-to-say-if-ether-is-a-security-in-contentious-congressional-hearing/) whether ETH is a security in his official capacity. \n\nThe CFTC has [implied](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/28/us-cftc-chief-behnam-reinforces-view-of-ether-as-commodity/) ETH is a commodity and not a security.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves yes if:\n\n- The US Congress passes a law which classifies Ethereum as a security\n- A federal court decision states that Ethereum is a security", "fine_print": "State-level laws, court decisions, and executive actions will not be sufficient for a Yes resolution", "post_id": 17366, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758156669.060477, "end_time": 1759081151.320809, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758156669.060477, "end_time": 1759081151.320809, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11024606021752459 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.6084342071518711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.9839306814079684, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1851223516044766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289694.678692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289694.678692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9839801810831358, 0.016019818916864246 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ethereum is the second biggest cryptocurrency, with a market cap of approximately $200 billion.\n\nSEC Chair Gary Gensler has said that many crypto tokens [are securities](https://www.sec.gov/news/speech/gensler-sec-speaks-090822), and in June 2023, the SEC charged both [Coinbase](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-102) and [Binance](https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-101) with securities-related violations. \n\n> The SEC named 13 total crypto assets trading on and offered by Coinbase that it believes should be treated as stocks and bonds but remain unregistered. The agency also said Coinbase should have registered its staking program, a service that allowed investors to earn returns by staking their crypto tokens. ([Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/06/sec-coinbase-securities-law-violations-00100352))\n\nEthereum was not one of the 13 crypto assets named.\n\nSEC Chair Gensler, at the time a professor at MIT, told hedge funds in 2018 that Ethereum was [not a security](https://fortune.com/crypto/2023/06/12/gensler-video-ethereum-litecoin-not-securities/). Gensler has [declined to state](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/04/19/sec-chair-gensler-declines-to-say-if-ether-is-a-security-in-contentious-congressional-hearing/) whether ETH is a security in his official capacity. \n\nThe CFTC has [implied](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/03/28/us-cftc-chief-behnam-reinforces-view-of-ether-as-commodity/) ETH is a commodity and not a security." } ] }
