Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3240
{ "count": 6360, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3260", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3220", "results": [ { "id": 20775, "title": "Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?", "short_title": "Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024?", "url_title": "Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024?", "slug": "starship-reaches-orbit-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:59:29.243999Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.338685Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 726, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20775, "title": "Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:59:29.243999Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T12:50:13.243891Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. [SpaceX describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as \"the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable.\"\n\nSo far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration. The first test reached an altitude of 39 kilometers before exploding prior to stage separation, and also causing significant pad damage during liftoff that slowed progress toward the second test launch. The second launch achieved stage separation and reached an altitude of roughly 150 kilometers, though both the booster and second stage were destroyed in flight due to anomalies.\n\nNote that both the [first](https://spacenews.com/starship-lifts-off-on-first-integrated-test-flight-breaks-apart-minutes-later/#:~:text=This%20test%20flight%20was%20not%20designed%20to%20reach%20orbit%20but%20instead%20send%20Starship%20on%20a%20long%20suborbital%20trajectory%2C%20splashing%20down%20near%20Hawaii%2090%20minutes%20after%20liftoff.) and [second](https://spacelaunchnow.me/launch/starship-integrated-flight-test-2/#:~:text=The%20second%20stage%20will%20follow%20a%20suborbital%20trajectory%20and%20perform%20an%20unpowered%20splashdown%20approximately%20100%20km%20off%20the%20northwest%20coast%20of%20Kauai%20(Hawaii).) integrated flight tests were suborbital trajectories.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in the calendar year 2024, SpaceX's Starship reaches orbit. Note that \"orbit\" is often used in a loose manner but this question has a specific definition of orbit in the fine print below.", "fine_print": "Reaching orbit does not require that a spacecraft complete a full orbit. A spacecraft will be considered to have reached orbit if it successfully reaches an altitude of 100 kilometers above the Earth (the [Kármán line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line)) without breaking up **AND** for any period of time while at an altitude of 100 kilometers or more achieves at least one of the following (such as before intentionally deorbiting): \n\n* A trajectory with an altitude at [perigee](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/perigee) of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth.\n* [Escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_velocity).\n* A trajectory with an altitude at [apogee](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/apogee) of at least 300,000 kilometers above the Earth.\n\nReports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that Starship achieved orbit are sufficient unless there is reason to believe that the source is using the term \"orbit\" colloquially or that the above criteria were not met.", "post_id": 20775, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735677548.517146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 722, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.024 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735677548.517146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 722, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.024 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.051272561675382876 ], "histogram": [ [ 26.680575527114165, 9.386473874080291, 3.4328829947322657, 2.548862937850656, 0.7273239434292262, 2.197136869496979, 0.5028230722720342, 0.2767111137329652, 0.645534823410386, 0.3138019364307485, 0.7551275287088957, 0.48536226410404043, 0.12566200018873525, 0.04053721598703217, 0.042276728295162935, 0.725539484507919, 0.0, 0.13664802300992382, 0.0, 0.059105813067717755, 0.2578474623665584, 5.27752811344362e-09, 0.019118453688705753, 0.030745041245702598, 0.0, 0.9184985592723552, 3.805787465693381e-09, 8.534672861424296e-06, 1.0214997550317877e-07, 0.006846696150532994, 0.028461365781101134, 0.00133435122701254, 0.0, 0.033958940698267985, 4.399269002838406e-07, 0.00019806813798200725, 0.0007872420773214679, 4.137022911731016e-05, 5.91798349162307e-06, 0.0, 0.10628080473160666, 0.0002930803689231516, 0.03009836758645488, 0.0, 0.005202283533496955, 0.01634670044551775, 0.00017526866603894946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15639336337635296, 0.028125832118902957, 0.0, 0.02292931629519391, 0.0039291636895515975, 0.00040199769105091486, 0.0020171364049525395, 0.0007295594519570364, 0.0, 0.06430485324287222, 0.021897120793193496, 0.0019371354411049546, 2.985599536599196e-05, 0.0002638768582947732, 0.002524677215565047, 0.044040256156231, 0.0026552339704333967, 0.01745171976069208, 1.6731234157184264e-10, 0.00020021597132237855, 0.025832416904010013, 0.0006994687597630231, 0.0018641815534162765, 5.039741760237731e-07, 0.0011907217109715991, 0.044241036956185635, 0.001486681906358609, 0.004024197693793211, 0.004006633119035551, 0.006529645002714258, 0.0683952285416162, 0.015610615319430334, 0.00257058207268211, 0.007624288086785873, 0.0012504189210585802, 0.07731343433702155, 0.021085443061863905, 1.281508584858158e-07, 0.0342071326037031, 0.028006625590354828, 0.12541081388561304, 0.0210390863283103, 0.025214891876089097, 0.014180046205205805, 0.02045589181592428, 0.09895169250720663, 0.03910306605544661, 0.10101348725710851, 0.0053633594154911795, 0.536527790304163 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -96.11156009160452, "peer_score": 20.616200590930895, "coverage": 0.9999819295580141, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999819295580141, "spot_peer_score": 17.898214581391915, "spot_baseline_score": -83.65012677171204, "baseline_archived_score": -96.11156009160452, "peer_archived_score": 20.616200590930895, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.898214581391915, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -83.65012677171204 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289772.717663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 708, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289772.717663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 708, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.961625420388484, 0.038374579611516066 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1980, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. [SpaceX describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as \"the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable.\"\n\nSo far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration. The first test reached an altitude of 39 kilometers before exploding prior to stage separation, and also causing significant pad damage during liftoff that slowed progress toward the second test launch. The second launch achieved stage separation and reached an altitude of roughly 150 kilometers, though both the booster and second stage were destroyed in flight due to anomalies.\n\nNote that both the [first](https://spacenews.com/starship-lifts-off-on-first-integrated-test-flight-breaks-apart-minutes-later/#:~:text=This%20test%20flight%20was%20not%20designed%20to%20reach%20orbit%20but%20instead%20send%20Starship%20on%20a%20long%20suborbital%20trajectory%2C%20splashing%20down%20near%20Hawaii%2090%20minutes%20after%20liftoff.) and [second](https://spacelaunchnow.me/launch/starship-integrated-flight-test-2/#:~:text=The%20second%20stage%20will%20follow%20a%20suborbital%20trajectory%20and%20perform%20an%20unpowered%20splashdown%20approximately%20100%20km%20off%20the%20northwest%20coast%20of%20Kauai%20(Hawaii).) integrated flight tests were suborbital trajectories." }, { "id": 20774, "title": "Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "US Government Shutdown Before 2025?", "url_title": "US Government Shutdown Before 2025?", "slug": "us-government-shutdown-before-2025", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:56:27.603002Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.945260Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T01:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 623, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20774, "title": "Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:56:27.603002Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T01:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T01:17:24.926818Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In its article [Q&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes government shutdowns as follows:\n\n>Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for FY 2023 that make up the discretionary spending budget and has instead been funding the government through a CR that was enacted at the end of September. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. Essential services continue to function, as do mandatory spending programs.\n\n>. . .\n\n>Since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, there have been 20 “funding gaps,” including the 2018-2019 shutdown and the one in January 2018, when funds were not appropriated for at least one day. (The hours-long lapse in appropriations in February 2018, though sometimes characterized as a shutdown, did not result in federal employee furloughs.) However, before 1980, the government did not shut down but rather continued normal operations through six funding gaps. Since 1981, 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred, mostly over a weekend when government operations were only minimally affected. \n>\n>There have now been four “true” shutdowns where operations were affected for more than one business day. The first two happened in the winter of 1995-1996 when President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress were unable to agree on spending levels and the government shut down twice, for a total of 26 days. The third was in 2013 when a House and Senate standoff over funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) resulted in a 16-day shutdown. The fourth shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019, technically only a partial shutdown because five of the 12 appropriations had previously been enacted, centered on a dispute over border wall funding and was the longest-lasting shutdown at 35 days.\n\nThe History, Art & Archives of the US House of Representatives [provides a list](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/) of funding gaps and whether or not they included shutdowns. The US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) maintains [information about shutdown furloughs](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#Shutdown-Furlough) as well as [shutdown contingency plans for agencies](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-for-agencies/agency-contingency-plans/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that at least some portions of the US federal government have ceased some operations or undergone \"shutdown\" as the result of a funding gap or missed funding deadline. For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20774, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.35124836271963, "peer_score": 35.49208841410847, "coverage": 0.9999304949336988, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999304949336988, "spot_peer_score": 26.169364867560304, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 85.35124836271963, "peer_archived_score": 35.49208841410847, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.169364867560304, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289316.001748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 593, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289316.001748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 593, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9951627017642284, 0.004837298235771601 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1734, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In its article [Q&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes government shutdowns as follows:\n\n>Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for FY 2023 that make up the discretionary spending budget and has instead been funding the government through a CR that was enacted at the end of September. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. Essential services continue to function, as do mandatory spending programs.\n\n>. . .\n\n>Since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, there have been 20 “funding gaps,” including the 2018-2019 shutdown and the one in January 2018, when funds were not appropriated for at least one day. (The hours-long lapse in appropriations in February 2018, though sometimes characterized as a shutdown, did not result in federal employee furloughs.) However, before 1980, the government did not shut down but rather continued normal operations through six funding gaps. Since 1981, 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred, mostly over a weekend when government operations were only minimally affected. \n>\n>There have now been four “true” shutdowns where operations were affected for more than one business day. The first two happened in the winter of 1995-1996 when President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress were unable to agree on spending levels and the government shut down twice, for a total of 26 days. The third was in 2013 when a House and Senate standoff over funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) resulted in a 16-day shutdown. The fourth shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019, technically only a partial shutdown because five of the 12 appropriations had previously been enacted, centered on a dispute over border wall funding and was the longest-lasting shutdown at 35 days.\n\nThe History, Art & Archives of the US House of Representatives [provides a list](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/) of funding gaps and whether or not they included shutdowns. The US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) maintains [information about shutdown furloughs](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#Shutdown-Furlough) as well as [shutdown contingency plans for agencies](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-for-agencies/agency-contingency-plans/)." }, { "id": 20773, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?", "short_title": "Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?", "url_title": "Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?", "slug": "kerch-bridge-knocked-out-before-2025", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:42:18.349285Z", "published_at": "2024-03-31T19:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.555458Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-31T19:30:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-25T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-25T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-31T19:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20773, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:42:18.349285Z", "open_time": "2024-03-31T19:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-03T19:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-03T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-25T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T16:42:48.259851Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-25T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge), also known as Kerch Bridge, connects the peninsula of Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar Krai region. It is properly two linked bridges in parallel; one bridge carries a roadway and the other a railway. The bridge is a potential military objective as a major logistics route for Russian forces in Crimea and adjacent portions of southern Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if third-party [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Crimean Bridge:\n\n* has been made impassable to effectively all automobile traffic OR to effectively all rail traffic\n\n* for any period of at least 168 hours ending before January 1, 2025\n\n* via physical destruction, obstruction, or damage from any source.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, physical damage or obstruction of the immediate approaches to the bridge, such that it is effectively impassable to through traffic, is considered to \"knock out\" the bridge itself", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20773, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654858.907186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654858.907186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03870215882643412 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.58032015296199, 2.88976116567203, 1.666560035088874, 0.17665817845075998, 0.7031695960903017, 0.2677413137870236, 0.06639265352365246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620737856704605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031256855951900246, 0.0, 0.1014869968784809, 0.1391714993251316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006275715278433752, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052446473270009945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043478249488001844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0456409475599527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035814214006338115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009837259930117102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04637161225326318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0591057465619562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09249024938796033 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.22103703203105, "peer_score": 22.821159525020363, "coverage": 0.9746118439589374, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9989688815116866, "spot_peer_score": 18.08564931721212, "spot_baseline_score": 54.59683691052925, "baseline_archived_score": 77.22103703203105, "peer_archived_score": 22.821159525020363, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.08564931721212, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.59683691052925 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290052.332716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290052.332716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9970793146968789, 0.00292068530312102 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 158, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge), also known as Kerch Bridge, connects the peninsula of Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar Krai region. It is properly two linked bridges in parallel; one bridge carries a roadway and the other a railway. The bridge is a potential military objective as a major logistics route for Russian forces in Crimea and adjacent portions of southern Ukraine." }, { "id": 20771, "title": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?", "short_title": "Mike Johnson Speaker For All of 2024?", "url_title": "Mike Johnson Speaker For All of 2024?", "slug": "mike-johnson-speaker-for-all-of-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:04:48.214810Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.113012Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 477, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20771, "title": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:04:48.214810Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:52:04.771453Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mike Johnson, elected as the Speaker of the House of Representatives in late October 2023, is set to serve in this role through at least early January 2025. This tenure will include overseeing the House as it votes to formally accept the results of the 2024 election. Johnson, a Republican representative from Louisiana, succeeded Kevin McCarthy after his removal and became the fourth nominee for the speaker's role within the GOP. His appointment was met with various reactions, reflecting the political climate and the anticipation of the House's direction under his leadership.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mike Johnson continuously holds the position of Speaker of the US House of Representatives until the end of 2024. Conversely, the resolution will be **No** if Mike Johnson is no longer Speaker of the House at any point in 2024 for any reason, including but not limited to resignation, retirement, election defeat, loss of majority party status, a vote of no confidence, expulsion, impeachment and conviction, disqualification, death, or incapacity. 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His appointment was met with various reactions, reflecting the political climate and the anticipation of the House's direction under his leadership." }, { "id": 20770, "title": "Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?", "short_title": "Ethiopia-Eritrea 100 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "url_title": "Ethiopia-Eritrea 100 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "slug": "ethiopia-eritrea-100-conflict-deaths-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T03:45:53.215549Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.553037Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 415, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20770, "title": "Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T03:45:53.215549Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T13:50:26.718067Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia [in 1993](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict), following a [lengthy war for independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean_War_of_Independence). Independence was followed by a [major war between the two nations in 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict#Major_combat_phase_(1998%E2%80%932000)) and ongoing conflict until the two sides [announced a peace declaration in 2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict#2018_Eritrea%E2%80%93Ethiopia_summit).\n\nHowever, in October of 2023 the Ethiopian president raised concerns of a renewal of conflict when he discussed the importance of landlocked Ethiopia securing access to a port. [According to Africanews](https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/14/ethiopian-pm-affirms-no-plans-for-invasion-over-red-sea-ports-access//):\n\n>In a televised speech on October 13, Abiy said that landlocked Ethiopia \"is a nation whose existence is tied to the Red Sea\", a key waterway for global trade.\n>\n>He said Africa's second most populous country needed access to a port, adding: \"If we plan to live together in peace, we have to find a way to mutually share with each other in a balanced manner.\"\n>\n>Since then, Abiy has sought to alleviate regional fears, telling a military parade two weeks later that \"Ethiopia will not pursue its interests through war. We are committed to mutual interest through dialogue and negotiation.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 100 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the militaries of Ethiopia and Eritrea caused by confrontation with the overtly flagged military of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "fine_print": "* Armed forces under government control will qualify, but rebel groups and groups supported by the government financially or otherwise will not.\n* Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths among members of the armed forces of either military occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.\n* If a range is provided, the lower end of the range must be 100 or more to qualify. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.", "post_id": 20770, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654595.311584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 411, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654595.311584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 411, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03641852915189424 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.66654555922002, 9.077783237382182, 3.1031457934371134, 1.8733521817548142, 1.057952488018942, 1.0382438389110868, 0.9524155439375244, 0.8576138297431684, 0.6339628391657566, 0.017849791316129238, 0.5322440929685028, 0.3451929795940357, 0.05424672646287712, 0.1674315290042739, 0.03172878101819607, 0.1751915890866319, 0.004192393021361575, 0.0016472573876032538, 0.0016913091545807998, 0.00766751073451142, 0.027555665310979086, 0.0, 0.00315596649099895, 0.001886305862439562, 0.0, 0.07248026999796953, 0.0, 3.7956221304614e-08, 0.042649268710034355, 0.0, 0.229983227545979, 0.00010281303367030147, 0.0, 0.013131890241280123, 0.037888051630931806, 0.009235094283095296, 0.0, 9.048777476301015e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22291040022902653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.547596197899683e-05, 0.05298410101935845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034192350426412387, 0.13878877826501856, 0.0, 2.4192106112315608e-05, 0.00018204964324063092, 4.422659881415947e-05, 0.011237304371129499, 0.009852733202051569, 0.000594433115251091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019171008877781831, 3.705519524324167e-08, 0.0, 0.004962327650556321, 0.0, 0.01246256920492601, 0.009169218332993943, 0.025030756859076016, 0.049269087101627515, 0.04423432158648288, 0.0105812334237609, 1.2047446299017313e-05, 0.02025479618687154, 0.0, 0.3635731921144617, 0.001641159960007204, 4.323955470888204e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.8470829317966406e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000433694214719697, 0.0005717055580068049, 6.61409645566419e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006084077101588687, 0.0007784094521555002, 0.000500852191858622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020275498121128915 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.04120973124486, "peer_score": 39.6310862486102, "coverage": 0.9998900512355059, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998900512355059, "spot_peer_score": 39.44880179473438, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 92.04120973124486, "peer_archived_score": 39.6310862486102, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 39.44880179473438, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289582.154351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 408, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289582.154351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 408, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993427615191611, 0.0006572384808388566 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 789, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia [in 1993](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict), following a [lengthy war for independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean_War_of_Independence). Independence was followed by a [major war between the two nations in 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict#Major_combat_phase_(1998%E2%80%932000)) and ongoing conflict until the two sides [announced a peace declaration in 2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict#2018_Eritrea%E2%80%93Ethiopia_summit).\n\nHowever, in October of 2023 the Ethiopian president raised concerns of a renewal of conflict when he discussed the importance of landlocked Ethiopia securing access to a port. [According to Africanews](https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/14/ethiopian-pm-affirms-no-plans-for-invasion-over-red-sea-ports-access//):\n\n>In a televised speech on October 13, Abiy said that landlocked Ethiopia \"is a nation whose existence is tied to the Red Sea\", a key waterway for global trade.\n>\n>He said Africa's second most populous country needed access to a port, adding: \"If we plan to live together in peace, we have to find a way to mutually share with each other in a balanced manner.\"\n>\n>Since then, Abiy has sought to alleviate regional fears, telling a military parade two weeks later that \"Ethiopia will not pursue its interests through war. We are committed to mutual interest through dialogue and negotiation.\"" }, { "id": 20769, "title": "Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?", "short_title": "Joe Biden Removed From 2024 Ballots", "url_title": "Joe Biden Removed From 2024 Ballots", "slug": "joe-biden-removed-from-2024-ballots", "author_id": 123419, "author_username": "Prodicus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T03:24:25.344288Z", "published_at": "2023-12-28T20:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.287283Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-28T20:47:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-22T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-22T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20769, "title": "Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T03:24:25.344288Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-31T20:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-31T20:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-22T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-01T16:05:25.280332Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-22T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Colorado Supreme Court recently [ruled that Donald Trump is to be removed from the state's 2024 Republican primary ballots](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-colorado-supreme-court/). In response, some Republicans have [intimated the possibility](https://nypost.com/2023/12/20/news/republicans-float-booting-biden-off-ballots-after-trump-colorado-ruling/) of trying to have Biden removed from the ballots of certain other conservative-leaning states like Texas or Florida. In particular, former Trump attorney Jenna Ellis argued that, \"What is absolutely wild about this opinion from the Colorado Supreme Court is that it contains no limiting principle,\" leading her to suggest that a court could be persuaded that Biden's handling of illegal immigration could be treated as disqualifying. By contrast, public health policy analyst Pradheep Shanker suggested, \"One could argue that since Biden made a deal with Iran to free up their billions of dollars in funds, that he gave aid and comfort to the enemy...\" and that such conduct could serve as a potential basis.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve **Yes** if according to credible sources Joe Biden is unwillingly removed , or ordered to be removed, from any ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election, be it the Democrat primary or the general election. The mechanism of the removal can be either by court order or the direct action of the relevant state government. Voluntary withdrawal from a ballot will not count for resolution, nor will removal based upon the choice of a non-governmental organization like the DNC. If this does not happen before the day of the election in 2024, the question will resolve **No**. Appeals which overturn the initial verdict or action shall not impact the resolution.", "fine_print": "In the unlikely event that the election does not take place within calendar year 2024, this will still resolve based upon who would be upon the ballots were they to be printed, although the resolution date shall be pushed back to January 1st, 2025 to allow for a potential late election under such circumstances.", "post_id": 20769, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730030654.50506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730030654.50506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.006593562197351622 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.146628946214278, 1.3720832687651046, 0.1648500158454983, 0.28495119657571016, 0.26102326165716355, 0.10062374127771072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012852091876617526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08915094763644647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 64.88725812684788, "peer_score": 2.1480655880457853, "coverage": 0.6620652164442369, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998878551245588, "spot_peer_score": 0.416300978549264, "baseline_archived_score": 64.88725812684788, "peer_archived_score": 2.1480655880457853, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.416300978549264 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287352.062363, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287352.062363, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Colorado Supreme Court recently [ruled that Donald Trump is to be removed from the state's 2024 Republican primary ballots](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-colorado-supreme-court/). In response, some Republicans have [intimated the possibility](https://nypost.com/2023/12/20/news/republicans-float-booting-biden-off-ballots-after-trump-colorado-ruling/) of trying to have Biden removed from the ballots of certain other conservative-leaning states like Texas or Florida. In particular, former Trump attorney Jenna Ellis argued that, \"What is absolutely wild about this opinion from the Colorado Supreme Court is that it contains no limiting principle,\" leading her to suggest that a court could be persuaded that Biden's handling of illegal immigration could be treated as disqualifying. By contrast, public health policy analyst Pradheep Shanker suggested, \"One could argue that since Biden made a deal with Iran to free up their billions of dollars in funds, that he gave aid and comfort to the enemy...\" and that such conduct could serve as a potential basis." }, { "id": 20768, "title": "Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?", "short_title": "10 Deaths Due to Nuclear Detonation in 2024?", "url_title": "10 Deaths Due to Nuclear Detonation in 2024?", "slug": "10-deaths-due-to-nuclear-detonation-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T02:44:44.437433Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.235670Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", 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"normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20768, "title": "Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T02:44:44.437433Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:40:02.818620Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The threat of nuclear weapons has loomed over the world since over one hundred thousand were killed when the United States [dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in August of 1945. More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has [elevated the risk](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/) of a nuclear detonation as Russia is one of [nine states](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/) known to possess nuclear weapons.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, a nuclear weapon detonates and kills at least 10 people. The detonation can occur for any reason, including tests and accidents.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20768, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654592.751428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 960, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654592.751428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 960, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.028019901189891352 ], "histogram": [ [ 45.58293270403196, 9.511477243820691, 1.4687087194386708, 0.19289494929684034, 0.0025743356096059196, 1.3847122110586838, 0.0012607351888612398, 0.0003784760132962096, 0.016796196855332464, 0.0027225643116221415, 0.4590385923959355, 0.0016751899046404427, 6.426105983909432e-05, 0.002420215239438009, 4.295247268273693e-05, 0.15320722113128607, 7.844033698889152e-07, 5.362271288233775e-05, 4.2333170976230706e-12, 9.194239322042377e-11, 0.17421015348126623, 0.0003484074592434622, 0.0, 0.0, 2.574341593589784e-05, 1.7842905270165504e-05, 6.41743866430417e-08, 0.001939678549144394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014294723839440011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1805997415579867e-10, 7.433420249858509e-08, 2.5847700590001355e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.193784950606139e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008273740315338608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27455243937448326, 4.919991621711779e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9948683683798661e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002680724130031666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37386265947700587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8476972062695771 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.502452037276, "peer_score": 5.870245050048965, "coverage": 0.9998991847201654, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998991847201654, "spot_peer_score": 3.6609135678812486, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 98.502452037276, "peer_archived_score": 5.870245050048965, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.6609135678812486, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289739.866615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 944, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289739.866615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 944, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9954731990802758, 0.004526800919724248 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1488, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The threat of nuclear weapons has loomed over the world since over one hundred thousand were killed when the United States [dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in August of 1945. More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has [elevated the risk](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/) of a nuclear detonation as Russia is one of [nine states](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/) known to possess nuclear weapons." }, { "id": 20767, "title": "Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?", "short_title": "Detroit Pistons name change by 2055", "url_title": "Detroit Pistons name change by 2055", "slug": "detroit-pistons-name-change-by-2055", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [ { "id": 114911, "username": "Joker" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-22T01:28:07.348812Z", "published_at": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:19:01.390921Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20767, "title": "Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T01:28:07.348812Z", "open_time": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-28T19:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-28T19:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the \"Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons\", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the \"Fort Wayne Pistons\" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the \"Pistons\" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry.\n\n[There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not.", "resolution_criteria": "This question positively resolves if the Detroit Pistons change their team nickname, non-trivially and as reported by official team news reports, before January 1st, 2055.\n\nIf the Detroit Pistons move their team to another city, the question remains unresolved so long as the team nickname remains the Pistons.", "fine_print": "This question resolves as \"ambiguous\" if the Detroit Pistons or the National Basketball Association dissolves. If the NBA breaks up or gets absorbed into another league and the Detroit Pistons remain as a franchise within a new league, then this question will remain unresolved. If that team dissolves or if the new league that the Detroit Pistons find itself in dissolves, then this question will resolve as \"ambiguous\". \n \nExamples of a \"trivial\" change that does not trigger resolution is the team changing its name to the \"Pist0ns\", \"Toyota Pistons\", or \"Cylinders\". For a positive resolution, the new name can refer to another internal combustion engine component that is understood not to be the piston or a part of a piston. A hypothetical name referring to the crankshaft or fuel injector satisfies this.\n\nChanging the team's name for a day or even a season does not count if it is understood that the team would revert to \"Pistons\" later.\n\nThe team can still refer to itself as the \"Pistons\" on some retro-themed days after the name change.\n\nIf the name change occurs for the 2054-2055 season, then the team must play at least one game under the new name for that season (in the part of the season where it is the year 2054) with the understanding that \"Pistons\" will no longer be the name of the team from the first day of 2055 and instead will be the name that the team had used in one or more games in 2054.", "post_id": 20767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758493130.616218, "end_time": 1803841600.273284, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758493130.616218, "end_time": 1803841600.273284, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.23018580393319635 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.6133113153919136, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7536986769772691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290017.823912, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290017.823912, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9432223643519807, 0.056777635648019284 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the \"Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons\", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the \"Fort Wayne Pistons\" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the \"Pistons\" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry.\n\n[There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not." }, { "id": 20766, "title": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?", "short_title": "India-Pakistan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "url_title": "India-Pakistan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "slug": "india-pakistan-10-conflict-deaths-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T23:27:04.746097Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.029837Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 437, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20766, "title": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T23:27:04.746097Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T13:52:16.725911Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "India and Pakistan have tense [relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and a [history of conflict](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan), in recent years involving a number of skirmishes at the contested border.\n\nTensions heightened in June of 2020 when Indian and Chinese forces [clashed in hand to hand combat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) along the border, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldier and four Chinese soldiers. Following additional clashes, India and Pakistan [reaffirmed a previous peace accord in February of 2021](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-india-kashmir-islamabad-pakistan-cfe1f0f1f97c2560ff1c71d091718c1a), which was followed by a period of reduced conflict. Still, small skirmishes have continued to occur, most recently in early November 2023 when an [Indian border guard was killed](https://www.rferl.org/a/indian-soldier-killed-kashmir-shots-pakistan-border-guards/32677720.html) during an exchange of weapons fire between border guards for the two countries.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of India and Pakistan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "fine_print": "* Armed forces under government control will qualify, for example [India's paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_India) and [Pakistan's paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_Pakistan).\n* Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths among members of the armed forces of either military occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.\n* If a range is provided, the lower end of the range must be 10 or more to qualify. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.", "post_id": 20766, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671905.252871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 433, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671905.252871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 433, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04534650150637146 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.974918277296965, 6.946697806472478, 5.2133810308493995, 1.9820421670754325, 1.0947796613133078, 2.2208266990392174, 0.915641344347673, 0.9642636569548695, 0.09180910185020903, 0.44386440591520016, 0.4386859972657406, 0.28466415280389135, 0.21522196626515838, 0.22773383161069644, 0.08277423064505063, 0.7483020658426881, 0.04047533653502088, 0.2226711948235486, 0.010504757373108338, 0.0007390583918672462, 0.1504175952198945, 0.057434411478587924, 0.0006393695152392549, 0.0003858254717087067, 0.011221079050856555, 0.2903160751202821, 0.0012285556510624408, 0.013096261967826355, 0.23002711249340896, 0.0, 0.04666756004703787, 0.00011628149021532003, 0.0, 0.015554531656562806, 0.00034351851345616166, 0.06539903175087991, 0.0, 0.004752772186592345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631267403528205, 0.0010659468179348417, 1.879831094635462e-05, 0.0, 0.0055823095248798155, 0.04183804114827425, 1.08883132041088e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0634501064219082e-08, 0.21653525984387076, 0.0005505915286552655, 0.06551273507199189, 4.023717129882482e-07, 0.00013948437462188743, 0.026412044832583692, 0.0015172876431964715, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4129893795619074e-06, 0.004475429344738735, 0.00031355984569851424, 0.0002641886949040042, 0.012345181560069312, 0.0, 0.30006845868263055, 5.3172308692896086e-05, 0.25501575498911744, 0.001876446730868979, 0.0, 0.014389598456056564, 0.0027149841686678737, 3.622913957057264e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022167489575035393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012563301156684982, 0.000857984124280316, 0.09846294627940043, 0.0, 0.021534708466923118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016267721936454726, 0.0, 6.918309992095295e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.59681016327898e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.23778370104819, "peer_score": 23.68698471652028, "coverage": 0.9998527631587095, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998527631587095, "spot_peer_score": 19.496100784404543, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "baseline_archived_score": 83.23778370104819, "peer_archived_score": 23.68698471652028, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.496100784404543, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288044.822666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 429, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288044.822666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 429, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9930837372167247, 0.006916262783275287 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 872, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "India and Pakistan have tense [relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and a [history of conflict](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan), in recent years involving a number of skirmishes at the contested border.\n\nTensions heightened in June of 2020 when Indian and Chinese forces [clashed in hand to hand combat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) along the border, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldier and four Chinese soldiers. Following additional clashes, India and Pakistan [reaffirmed a previous peace accord in February of 2021](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-india-kashmir-islamabad-pakistan-cfe1f0f1f97c2560ff1c71d091718c1a), which was followed by a period of reduced conflict. Still, small skirmishes have continued to occur, most recently in early November 2023 when an [Indian border guard was killed](https://www.rferl.org/a/indian-soldier-killed-kashmir-shots-pakistan-border-guards/32677720.html) during an exchange of weapons fire between border guards for the two countries." }, { "id": 20764, "title": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "short_title": "China and Taiwan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "url_title": "China and Taiwan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "slug": "china-and-taiwan-10-conflict-deaths-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:47:32.366884Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.567512Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T16:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 593, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T15:20:22.100340Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T15:20:22.100340Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20764, "title": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:47:32.366884Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T16:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T16:46:47.637375Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China has [repeatedly asserted](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/xi-warned-biden-summit-beijing-will-reunify-taiwan-china-rcna130087) a claim to Taiwan since the beginning of independent Taiwanese governance in 1949. The [tense relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden) between the two countries has led to fears of a [Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of China or Taiwan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "fine_print": "* Armed forces under government control will qualify, for example [China's paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China), such as the [People's Armed Police](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China).\n* Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths among members of the armed forces of either military occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.\n* If a range is provided, the lower end of the range must be 10 or more to qualify. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.", "post_id": 20764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654588.925616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 589, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654588.925616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 589, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.021242039210976903 ], "histogram": [ [ 26.506325868135654, 11.126971484437709, 2.080673577915504, 1.8953894139100758, 0.5569521611031851, 1.931469625162718, 0.4749324982917963, 0.14667318936123655, 0.06601489595917778, 0.008509978893225332, 0.4133655978138095, 0.47902605217005145, 0.016407810938853493, 1.7410402551291408e-08, 0.010294846983161266, 0.07847271698846078, 0.0032034455681931137, 4.958459653123438e-05, 0.0034565600984087725, 3.2284157696847826e-05, 0.10513339472371024, 0.0021615983627149733, 0.009138329896489548, 1.0551883515727797e-05, 0.001858324869328645, 0.43554787960481633, 2.7374125387857433e-08, 0.0, 0.0019130162386669191, 0.0, 0.0006294830583602122, 0.11578991452741336, 5.668814495182096e-05, 7.986368427420514e-06, 0.18925009227197345, 0.003435197116065612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15865724016771385, 0.005682696056252648, 4.141467297390119e-05, 0.004277295007442095, 0.0, 2.2101167936402543e-07, 0.0001278961451111021, 0.0, 3.147936143815364e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011735995783458667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00039459703676540485, 0.022952496518789268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000192948247338756, 4.791392980236543e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006345880055999825, 0.0, 1.481088362009019e-07, 2.9410038057741593e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0965581442152373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9104796891418476e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008650824271354883, 0.0, 4.2746133471601115e-07, 0.0, 8.131327691342879e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002361435189644669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.931128155900205e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05918666912905212 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 95.73793365675186, "peer_score": 16.8956953250338, "coverage": 0.9998987523590184, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998987523590184, "spot_peer_score": 16.281493193012388, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 95.73793365675186, "peer_archived_score": 16.8956953250338, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.281493193012388, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287673.513387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 585, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287673.513387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 585, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1033, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China has [repeatedly asserted](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/xi-warned-biden-summit-beijing-will-reunify-taiwan-china-rcna130087) a claim to Taiwan since the beginning of independent Taiwanese governance in 1949. The [tense relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden) between the two countries has led to fears of a [Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)." }, { "id": 20763, "title": "Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?", "short_title": "New Glenn Reaches 100km Altitude 2024?", "url_title": "New Glenn Reaches 100km Altitude 2024?", "slug": "new-glenn-reaches-100km-altitude-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T21:38:59.441145Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.170761Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 370, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20763, "title": "Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T21:38:59.441145Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:48:19.447480Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Blue Origin's [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) launch vehicle consists of two stages and is planned to be able to [launch 45 metric tons of payload into low Earth orbit](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-glenn). The first launch is [currently planned](https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-smallsat-mission-to-be-on-first-new-glenn-launch/) to carry a NASA [smallsat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_satellite) in August of 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, the New Glenn launch vehicle reaches an altitude of 100 kilometers intact.", "fine_print": "* Test flights with no payload count.", "post_id": 20763, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735672439.667552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 366, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735672439.667552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 366, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.09249766372903823 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.90460322918488, 4.082299180841074, 0.0, 0.7097572692796921, 0.525652355349865, 1.9293015993795988, 0.19994538958916785, 0.6230473729549258, 0.00933210965085025, 0.7069739884316937, 0.8728899316987706, 0.01774844097757489, 0.005909899399980085, 0.0, 0.49735499771416825, 0.8147919098894925, 2.1536124006480515e-06, 0.08684683699696695, 0.29681281169268203, 0.16355296534825678, 0.3498466660598826, 0.05596383164229851, 0.308163539574284, 0.02463848769631428, 0.0010669824633568184, 0.8171027496033505, 4.2088276180855116e-05, 0.20825909202867865, 0.4426712046981275, 0.0, 0.9778702457558178, 9.174880316330508e-06, 0.17831880702658195, 0.7775442321711215, 0.013586468143509688, 0.6493501726551145, 0.29841188236675636, 0.001103681815805035, 0.19243295778258407, 0.005726140451465661, 0.22533890201157925, 0.18182291136904302, 0.24515216713277674, 0.0, 0.0024387993728032073, 0.060799179121925326, 0.0, 0.04676078455863615, 0.0, 1.8592759020765258e-06, 0.2719424024305336, 0.000681436957599874, 8.314337207373128e-08, 0.0014140160232210591, 0.051015448063206334, 0.05362488606019185, 0.02134104497792172, 0.000131950006926256, 0.0, 0.01321075543266638, 0.06325159889510981, 0.13751726798285485, 0.008916062069336098, 0.003551486941334163, 0.0, 0.04760698584007501, 0.00023912330121716427, 2.0759220406730155e-05, 0.0001256217808421004, 0.011081735125860267, 0.22314327178283394, 0.000459873987107951, 0.14995222582816706, 0.0019362004776498287, 0.0, 0.00982149940872127, 0.0031762999116052818, 9.789338955804075e-05, 0.002096249359010503, 0.087971028958726, 0.006684983921047407, 0.0, 0.0032970781733977594, 0.0005953110243529837, 2.9668723753987617e-06, 0.0015459346032085765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004928473660667823, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2915032748856147e-05, 0.0, 6.479426321201786e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07616138745055129 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.79039915327695, "peer_score": 34.37533076085686, "coverage": 0.999852002234566, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999852002234566, "spot_peer_score": 36.72441854779305, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 41.79039915327695, "peer_archived_score": 34.37533076085686, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.72441854779305, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288638.08545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 356, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288638.08545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 356, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6700860956512431, 0.32991390434875695 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 846, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Blue Origin's [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) launch vehicle consists of two stages and is planned to be able to [launch 45 metric tons of payload into low Earth orbit](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-glenn). The first launch is [currently planned](https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-smallsat-mission-to-be-on-first-new-glenn-launch/) to carry a NASA [smallsat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_satellite) in August of 2024." }, { "id": 20762, "title": "Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?", "short_title": "SSE Index up over 2024?", "url_title": "SSE Index up over 2024?", "slug": "sse-index-up-over-2024", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T21:38:31.702034Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.038066Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 390, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20762, "title": "Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T21:38:31.702034Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:52:21.859471Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The SSE Composite Index is a stock market index of all stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. While the Chinese economy has grown significantly over the past two decades, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has had more humble returns. For reference, [China's GDP](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/gdp-gross-domestic-product) grew from 1.47 trillion USD in 2002 to 17.96 trillion USD in 2022, while the [SSE](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000001.SS/) went from 1500 at the beginning of 2003 to 3255 at the beginning of 2023.\n\nFor further reference, [from 2003 until 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSE_Composite_Index), the SSE ended the year up for 11 of those years and down for 9 of those years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **YES** if on December 31st, 2024, the closing price of the SSE Index is higher than the closing price of the SSE Index was on December 29th, 2023. Otherwise, the question will resolve **NO**.\n\nThe closing price will be checked at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000001.SS", "fine_print": "If the Yahoo Finance page ceases to exist before January 1st, 2025, another source will be used as chosen by Metaculus.", "post_id": 20762, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654820.234715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 386, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654820.234715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 386, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.8844728858466306 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.18810210086390639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.704305703437546e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042661423332883, 0.12283000783985593, 2.2935753543074472e-07, 0.0, 0.007749800102282546, 0.0069892836192071445, 9.901301946206579e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007854822223100393, 8.088334431164492e-08, 0.0, 0.022283624744831976, 1.2372242141152907e-07, 0.18513496135896948, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3983423966621406e-08, 0.0, 0.11576173205058622, 0.048224370121918034, 0.0, 0.27936519540274274, 8.643607838749941e-05, 0.1422069883509022, 0.021712022827982094, 4.0772990626447845e-05, 0.008118176637221634, 0.01738034406241161, 0.3686366228891674, 0.007296062193379834, 0.023586950813111227, 0.0007832854852571766, 0.10167712335036941, 0.10996168067601271, 0.1416699407570663, 0.1475172792756767, 0.10056444104581772, 0.1055978916541806, 0.2792839136811468, 0.01207066104218565, 0.005442411812084318, 0.16910262391937608, 0.17357373496515016, 0.3949405063418717, 0.5097380982614022, 0.20219168412016908, 0.0, 0.06666289192091368, 0.4892295003705306, 0.003849792242561716, 0.051233550651627, 0.009780476490208034, 0.0015837232713773206, 0.5012631741145048, 0.11000100643748645, 0.34154496961473824, 0.0021097083604950445, 0.0, 0.790636767644904, 0.6583298761564762, 0.002144190567394474, 0.4162397161665195, 0.34780758821645624, 0.44532290570655597, 0.0, 0.03342653855633191, 0.0005021715239331986, 0.0003559105776006588, 0.1932334199934149, 9.340223952418717e-05, 0.0, 0.03157566977943679, 0.0, 0.08481398255981393, 0.04980479807336776, 0.0, 0.3709277024992809, 0.0, 0.9760563081228281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38436609495710694, 0.06881593442040619, 2.9262313902595194, 2.4326202378771424, 3.0598977464006145, 3.955780465160071, 14.919430172222837 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.26683141616948, "peer_score": 14.871827884412877, "coverage": 0.9998510062625547, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998510062625547, "spot_peer_score": 6.413386937926504, "spot_baseline_score": 2.856915219677092, "baseline_archived_score": 18.26683141616948, "peer_archived_score": 14.871827884412877, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.413386937926504, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 2.856915219677092 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288602.224964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 380, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288602.224964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 380, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.44796435866491824, 0.5520356413350818 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1043, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The SSE Composite Index is a stock market index of all stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. While the Chinese economy has grown significantly over the past two decades, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has had more humble returns. For reference, [China's GDP](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/gdp-gross-domestic-product) grew from 1.47 trillion USD in 2002 to 17.96 trillion USD in 2022, while the [SSE](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000001.SS/) went from 1500 at the beginning of 2003 to 3255 at the beginning of 2023.\n\nFor further reference, [from 2003 until 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSE_Composite_Index), the SSE ended the year up for 11 of those years and down for 9 of those years." }, { "id": 20761, "title": "Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024?", "url_title": "Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024?", "slug": "ukraine-controls-bakhmut-at-end-of-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T20:27:16.291137Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.067909Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:16.291000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:16.291000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:16.291000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 543, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", 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"close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20761, "title": "Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T20:27:16.291137Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:16.291000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:46:13.825572Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:16.291000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:16.291000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Previous Questions on Metaculus**\n\n- [Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/)\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/)\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17742/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-october-2023/)\n\n---\n\nThe city of Bakhmut in Ukraine has been [heavily contested](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/20/the-battle-for-ukraine-bakhmut-a-timeline), and [according to PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/ukraine-ends-year-in-disappointing-stalemate-with-russia-and-anxious-about-aid-from-allies) the battle for Bakhmut has been \"the longest and bloodiest battle of the war\".\n\nThe [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) (ISW) has been tracking the war in Ukraine and charting the control of territory on its [interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). As of December 21, 2023, the ISW shows central Bakhmut as under \"assessed Russian control\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus at 2pm ET on December 31, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building — located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500 — is under any of the following categories:\n\n- Ukrainian Control\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n- Assessed Russian Advance\n- Claimed Russian Control\n- Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the administrative building by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500\".\n* If the building itself no longer exists, resolution will be based on the location of the building.\n* Credit to [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2621-will-the-location-of-the-administrative-services-building-in-bakhmut-ukraine-cease-to-be-under-ukrainian-control-before-26-january-2023-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war) for inspiring the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 20761, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735549868.59511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 539, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735549868.59511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 539, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01568358877115797 ], "histogram": [ [ 30.616455909352165, 10.360659691155199, 1.4811675001789244, 0.37787842306822195, 0.148525009907406, 0.7263250696751725, 0.01676774974913886, 0.17579278063309522, 0.09019561452546818, 0.11027727586152022, 0.16988643875334045, 0.004299472212220811, 0.1342065694832634, 0.010664571361933562, 0.002000786470991728, 0.006468966857367967, 3.656666472363833e-05, 0.0014706061790638854, 4.991361463131708e-06, 1.2033710589701394e-05, 0.0025166181442115958, 0.0014842789001248218, 1.366109657460155e-06, 0.0, 9.39741462358236e-06, 0.09799670103198532, 4.728406131252692e-06, 9.939850024562048e-05, 0.0008802327955924448, 0.0, 0.006597455838141371, 1.2747980660130753e-06, 0.00019291005556541435, 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0.3670318276253227 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.19754089377847, "peer_score": 31.88351598331526, "coverage": 0.9998980928354837, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998980928354837, "spot_peer_score": 30.480956305251112, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 93.19754089377847, "peer_archived_score": 31.88351598331526, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.480956305251112, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289901.263549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 535, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289901.263549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 535, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9942733650085929, 0.005726634991407103 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Previous Questions on Metaculus**\n\n- [Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/)\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/)\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17742/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-october-2023/)\n\n---\n\nThe city of Bakhmut in Ukraine has been [heavily contested](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/20/the-battle-for-ukraine-bakhmut-a-timeline), and [according to PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/ukraine-ends-year-in-disappointing-stalemate-with-russia-and-anxious-about-aid-from-allies) the battle for Bakhmut has been \"the longest and bloodiest battle of the war\".\n\nThe [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) (ISW) has been tracking the war in Ukraine and charting the control of territory on its [interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). As of December 21, 2023, the ISW shows central Bakhmut as under \"assessed Russian control\"." }, { "id": 20760, "title": "Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?", "short_title": "Artemis II Lunar Flyby in 2024?", "url_title": "Artemis II Lunar Flyby in 2024?", "slug": "artemis-ii-lunar-flyby-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T19:16:57.127621Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.959521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 330, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20760, "title": "Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T19:16:57.127621Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:31:55.473619Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NASA's [Artemis program](https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/) is a series of missions to explore the moon. The first mission, [Artemis I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_1), was launched on November 16, 2022, and performed an uncrewed flyby of the moon.\n\nThe second mission, [Artemis II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_2#Mission), is planned to be the first crewed mission to fly by the moon since [humans last left low Earth orbit with the Apollo 17 mission in 1972](https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/why-50-years-since-humans-went-moon). Its launch is [scheduled to be no earlier than November of 2024](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/).\n\n<img src=\"https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/artemis-2-map-october-2021.jpeg\" alt=\"Artemis II Mission Plan\" />\n*[Image published by NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/artemis-ii-map/)*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, the Artemis II moon mission comes within 20,000 nautical miles of the surface of the moon with a living crew.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20760, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654579.754091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 326, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654579.754091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 326, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.009526350282380839 ], "histogram": [ [ 19.968206147450427, 13.390644166032857, 0.4928485010704709, 0.02683507381539951, 0.0003027350783425065, 0.11944174129162362, 0.0, 0.00252519126957343, 0.0, 0.0002593035657326077, 0.06615060890773285, 0.00022242825849018072, 0.0, 6.411139219704391e-05, 0.0, 0.1515712969674423, 0.0001347363865395433, 1.3169088681304128e-06, 0.0001280312246962695, 0.001470959673959244, 0.010886627367807461, 0.0001619713594016113, 0.00339402722452779, 0.0, 0.22258826473067672, 0.002500118038891514, 0.0, 0.0038301263558935352, 0.0006544831024092165, 0.0, 0.008707050904459444, 0.004145777240066602, 0.0018214362134958092, 0.0018731386364306346, 0.0, 0.00018892020536550038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017573544978091392, 0.0, 0.1034681865290071, 0.0025675713633177928, 0.0022491355374569012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001406930648791243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006952059201134297, 0.0011962682440931625, 0.00021096737893537993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028701526695447605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009029379555941219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4038366634819247e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012338037600377488, 0.0, 0.0008853571065745246, 0.003677322080269969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.786580063142045e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 4.2950164252548256e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010726260855055622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002767128816549504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.090838682512758e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.862213487543925e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.72098795894492, "peer_score": 21.029324659122093, "coverage": 0.9999848327436859, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999848327436859, "spot_peer_score": 25.37582344181342, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": 97.72098795894492, "peer_archived_score": 21.029324659122093, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.37582344181342, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287035.254527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 326, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287035.254527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 326, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 587, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NASA's [Artemis program](https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/) is a series of missions to explore the moon. The first mission, [Artemis I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_1), was launched on November 16, 2022, and performed an uncrewed flyby of the moon.\n\nThe second mission, [Artemis II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_2#Mission), is planned to be the first crewed mission to fly by the moon since [humans last left low Earth orbit with the Apollo 17 mission in 1972](https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/why-50-years-since-humans-went-moon). Its launch is [scheduled to be no earlier than November of 2024](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/).\n\n<img src=\"https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/artemis-2-map-october-2021.jpeg\" alt=\"Artemis II Mission Plan\" />\n*[Image published by NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/artemis-ii-map/)*" }, { "id": 20759, "title": "Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?", "short_title": "AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?", "url_title": "AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?", "slug": "ai-wins-coding-competition-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T18:44:03.852629Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.493850Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 489, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20759, "title": "Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T18:44:03.852629Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T14:17:20.757134Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February of 2022 Google DeepMind [unveiled AlphaCode](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/competitive-programming-with-alphacode/), an AI system that it claimed \"writes computer programs at a competitive level\". AlphaCode was assessed on challenges [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/), a platform for competitive coding with prizes for the best and most efficient solutions to the problems posed. [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/2/22914085/alphacode-ai-coding-program-automatic-deepmind-codeforce):\n\n>AlphaCode was tested on 10 of challenges that had been tackled by 5,000 users on the Codeforces site. On average, it ranked within the top 54.3 percent of responses, and DeepMind estimates that this gives the system a Codeforces Elo of 1238, which places it within the top 28 percent of users who have competed on the site in the last six months.\n\nIn December of 2023, DeepMind announced AlphaCode 2, powered by its [new Gemini model](https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-gemini-ai/). In an [accompanying technical report](https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/AlphaCode2/AlphaCode2_Tech_Report.pdf), DeepMind described AlphaCode2 as a significant improvement over the first AlphaCode and said it performed better than 85% of competition participants on Codeforces.\n\n>When evaluated on the Codeforces platform – a mainstay of competitive programming – AlphaCode 2 solves 43% of problems within 10 attempts, close to twice as many problems as the original AlphaCode (25%). While its predecessor performed at the level of the median competitor, we estimate that AlphaCode 2 reaches the 85th percentile on average.\n\nSo far AlphaCode results appear to be based on a comparison of its performance to those of contestants without actually entering the contest. [Discussions of the results](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035) by Codeforces users correctly guessed that a user known as AdamentChicken2 was one of the accounts used to submit AlphaCode 2 solutions, which was [confirmed by the user](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035?#comment-1091379) and in an X (formerly Twitter) posts ([1](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732712334626361671), [2](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732677521290789235)) by DeepMind research scientist Rémi Leblond.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that an AI has won a coding contest on [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/) in the highest division.", "fine_print": "* To qualify, an AI must generate all code solutions entirely independently, no human editing, direction, or revision of solutions is allowed. For example, human direction iterating on generated output of the form \"X line of code is suboptimal, please revise it\" is not allowed.\n* The AI must top the official leaderboard for the contest, simulating the contest or participating in a virtual round will not be sufficient.\n* There is no requirement on how the generated solutions are processed or submitted except that solutions cannot be edited by humans. An AI generating many solutions with human filtering for the most optimal solution is allowed, and humans may make the submissions to the platform.\n* Currently the highest division on Codeforces is division 1, for users rated 1900+. The AI must win a contest that allows division 1 users to compete. If Codeforces changes its ratings or divisions the AI must win a contest that allows users in the highest division to enter.\n* A qualifying report may be silent on human intervention in the code generation, so long as Metaculus does not have reason to believe that human intervention occurred. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt. Where information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 20759, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671910.079695, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 485, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671910.079695, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 485, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.04156117547477851 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.778868344552507, 12.349258652188109, 2.3227264795949623, 1.0693222622883534, 0.42583982683619404, 0.34067959536430825, 0.34012523185358745, 0.12345005089352762, 0.2609409335406492, 0.276653875097212, 0.3085089071057913, 7.634168593284274e-07, 0.036179095899018375, 0.0024999213598472345, 3.420246946228617e-05, 0.8430958181537458, 0.00016977246112647346, 0.017469186031782546, 0.0046357419452325984, 0.0, 0.15348378961279477, 0.01396756420576665, 0.06349810155708774, 0.008902810990401801, 1.8918974693388992e-05, 0.421201007101519, 0.0005796531644285303, 0.0009215816611261162, 1.597033877588103e-07, 0.0, 0.02646451172685571, 0.006072604724752456, 5.4165973360989936e-08, 1.063594314953583e-06, 0.0, 0.007934393749084733, 1.708423365309476e-05, 0.0034047697603578767, 0.006209709276892594, 0.0007809093099423216, 0.005990959692136704, 0.0006583478697907213, 0.0001462876137729657, 1.4708849528532186e-06, 3.69316072459543e-07, 0.044917064590740435, 0.0, 4.205721135174024e-06, 0.0, 0.0019440949650593416, 0.0024413039550532944, 3.596769357910142e-05, 2.780894153939372e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.004802439585776e-05, 5.535341216236263e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007510846589872936, 0.001860993215803874, 0.0, 8.472922116468318e-06, 0.0, 0.16646944793815763, 0.003555388047018314, 0.0010516069256674312, 0.0, 1.3591557647965476e-05, 0.002183900852783904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008334237226428348, 0.005853166223240479, 0.5599764728653476, 0.0001762464276225414, 1.6326589108051474e-05, 0.0, 1.9553120692708907e-05, 0.008688973274270363, 0.0, 5.920468870570165e-05, 1.320587068588678e-06, 0.029014337769144145, 0.0002091336415485358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12967613147215845, 2.2437422465618094e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008567039278624464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34398081814348713 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.83176412194952, "peer_score": 41.54597442397286, "coverage": 0.999901424482741, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999901424482741, "spot_peer_score": 37.97268821704141, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 89.83176412194952, "peer_archived_score": 41.54597442397286, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.97268821704141, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289920.439293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 483, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289920.439293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 483, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988802103226049, 0.0011197896773951423 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 943, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February of 2022 Google DeepMind [unveiled AlphaCode](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/competitive-programming-with-alphacode/), an AI system that it claimed \"writes computer programs at a competitive level\". AlphaCode was assessed on challenges [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/), a platform for competitive coding with prizes for the best and most efficient solutions to the problems posed. [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/2/22914085/alphacode-ai-coding-program-automatic-deepmind-codeforce):\n\n>AlphaCode was tested on 10 of challenges that had been tackled by 5,000 users on the Codeforces site. On average, it ranked within the top 54.3 percent of responses, and DeepMind estimates that this gives the system a Codeforces Elo of 1238, which places it within the top 28 percent of users who have competed on the site in the last six months.\n\nIn December of 2023, DeepMind announced AlphaCode 2, powered by its [new Gemini model](https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-gemini-ai/). In an [accompanying technical report](https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/AlphaCode2/AlphaCode2_Tech_Report.pdf), DeepMind described AlphaCode2 as a significant improvement over the first AlphaCode and said it performed better than 85% of competition participants on Codeforces.\n\n>When evaluated on the Codeforces platform – a mainstay of competitive programming – AlphaCode 2 solves 43% of problems within 10 attempts, close to twice as many problems as the original AlphaCode (25%). While its predecessor performed at the level of the median competitor, we estimate that AlphaCode 2 reaches the 85th percentile on average.\n\nSo far AlphaCode results appear to be based on a comparison of its performance to those of contestants without actually entering the contest. [Discussions of the results](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035) by Codeforces users correctly guessed that a user known as AdamentChicken2 was one of the accounts used to submit AlphaCode 2 solutions, which was [confirmed by the user](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035?#comment-1091379) and in an X (formerly Twitter) posts ([1](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732712334626361671), [2](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732677521290789235)) by DeepMind research scientist Rémi Leblond." }, { "id": 20758, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI Describes Q* in 2024?", "url_title": "OpenAI Describes Q* in 2024?", "slug": "openai-describes-q-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T16:12:16.925908Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.312750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T16:12:16.925908Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T14:38:53.631124Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q\\* (or Q-Star) **and** publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q\\*.", "fine_print": "* A description of Q\\* must state that it is a system or method that was or is currently being developed or explored by OpenAI and must provide some information about what Q\\* is (for example, giving an overview of how Q\\* works without delving into technical detail). A description of a system or method that was published before 2024 but is publicly acknowledged to be Q\\* in 2024 will resolve the question as **Yes**.\n* A description does **not** need to contain any of the following:\n * A statement that Q\\* has been used on or is an AI system that has finished training or that is functional.\n * An accompanying release of an AI system known as Q\\* or that has been trained using Q\\*.\n * Any performance results.\n * A paper describing it in detail.\n* A public acknowledgement that the system or method described is Q\\* does not need to be made in the initial document describing the system or method, and can occur at a later time, including from public statements by OpenAI staff, including interviews, media appearances, or podcasts (this does not include statements made anonymously or on background). The question will resolve as **Yes** when all criteria are met. For example, if OpenAI publishes information about an AI system not named Q\\*, but in a later interview the OpenAI CEO states that the system is the previously rumored Q\\*, the question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* The system or method must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. If Microsoft or any other entity exercises its existing rights or purchases rights such that it announces such a system or method but without having legally acquired or merged with OpenAI it will **not** be sufficient.\n* A description specifically of Q\\* must be provided, a description of a system or method characterized as a successor to Q\\* would not qualify.", "post_id": 20758, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671907.516006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 618, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671907.516006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 618, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.05261778671771764 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.124194665508552, 7.0427973556365595, 4.206878284276723, 5.204696690338252, 2.8498145652794404, 5.182518071898628, 0.9901192583232162, 0.12955975455185656, 0.2234241657904713, 0.38510465367166424, 2.4070623621547336, 0.002306643975677641, 0.008189625415474034, 0.2984744628960989, 0.00623860013861416, 0.5934747597233005, 0.15382883470719452, 0.06549197029965916, 0.23452210071551208, 0.18903513209882591, 0.7664882390461478, 0.014507488101684986, 0.003212727439357921, 0.0016477006738853492, 0.12113883821412373, 0.003735177189847846, 0.23642303626472339, 0.0035117236022325655, 0.012501606154099863, 0.0, 0.2726650114830386, 1.0790028378379895e-05, 0.0006140976565311939, 0.05703632518852726, 0.17621271197181534, 0.006723290374048263, 1.368718635728165e-07, 0.0010205593114554245, 0.0, 4.978054395044881e-06, 0.027137400078470337, 0.00023645388464355404, 0.004794051916167533, 2.7038380547018305e-10, 0.0032069421272995385, 0.01562299611585833, 0.0005649752785293951, 0.07515143697420448, 0.002705927700482579, 2.9454465091886387e-06, 0.36661099917007756, 0.0, 6.546220839500408e-05, 0.0, 0.0004582394275240296, 0.004559541956250563, 0.004340269709875812, 0.0001775055780880411, 0.0, 3.888388482745459e-07, 0.01429360590828549, 0.10275584605524533, 0.0003975955823552147, 0.0, 0.00017647505040082394, 0.00517808772705774, 0.0022805309818769246, 0.00011945533317274277, 3.2948533967723604e-05, 0.00011049944165699924, 0.0047668148947786725, 2.44514110498953e-05, 8.733812406337541e-07, 0.00016647246443648298, 4.129443845883521e-05, 0.3422300375310932, 9.976535015485322e-06, 0.0010849213415993777, 0.17736619887140034, 3.824414314425298e-06, 0.08016884957798168, 4.271513707254082e-05, 4.598784175853898e-06, 7.700189919767815e-07, 2.064908164126594e-05, 2.027301320914765e-06, 6.166543231500808e-05, 0.0, 2.340004630635361e-07, 0.0, 0.00035011056229346054, 4.7847079165605414e-06, 5.9746346879593815e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006855635877699897, 0.0003232879572713849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007300803689925691 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.28310499028391, "peer_score": 51.67627387797022, "coverage": 0.9998974679814885, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998974679814885, "spot_peer_score": 41.69729536560886, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "baseline_archived_score": 63.28310499028391, "peer_archived_score": 51.67627387797022, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 41.69729536560886, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289104.322143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 611, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289104.322143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 611, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.948123761207921, 0.051876238792079074 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1591, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy." }, { "id": 20757, "title": "Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?", "short_title": "EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024?", "url_title": "EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024?", "slug": "ev-sales-share-above-11-in-us-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T05:21:33.276584Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.087026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-23T01:54:00Z", 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"scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Electric vehicles have seen significant sales growth in recent years, with plug-in vehicles (PEVs) making up less than 3% of light duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 2020, a figure that [has grown to above 9%](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates) through November 2023.\n\nPEVs consist of both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the total period made up of the months of January 2024 through November 2024, inclusive, the sales share of light duty plug-in vehicles (PEVs) is greater than 11% in the United States according to [data published by Argonne National Laboratory](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).", "fine_print": "* PEVs include both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).\n* Specifically, light duty vehicle sales figures published by Argonne in the [monthly historical data](https://www.anl.gov/esia/reference/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates-historical-data) will be used when data for November 2024 first becomes 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The percentage will be computed by using the total PEV sales from January through November 2024 compared to total light duty vehicle (LDV) sales over the same period. 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The World Health Organization (WHO) [describes](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as follows:\n\n>A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response”. This definition implies a situation that is:\n>\n> * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected;\n> * carries implications for public health beyond the affected State’s national border; and\n> * may require immediate international action.\n\nThe International Health Regulations (IHR) Emergency Committee (EC) meets to monitor health risks and provide advice to [WHO Director-General](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director-General_of_the_World_Health_Organization), who makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.\n\nThere [have been seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Declarations) PHEIC declarations since the IHR was established in 2005. The first was swine flu in 2009, and the most recent was Mpox in 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in calendar year 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20754, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723656652.291464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 486, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723656652.291464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 486, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.17312505204790427 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6820978681154246, 1.0994834088477503, 0.3200953202891841, 0.889778391950746, 1.3531097227448927, 4.122338595062918, 1.6684855751536836, 1.1502142783494573, 1.2571890553721516, 2.543778490854047, 6.434753479620978, 0.5271275347549162, 1.701756185735181, 1.6483004032027355, 0.406599923924159, 3.363925493997243, 0.5049120905562168, 0.37296993829176206, 0.03265571177861232, 0.6866700974463771, 2.8536652884663853, 0.217159503481487, 0.9829680851712251, 0.11106547966796405, 3.529558638106898e-06, 1.3520976002118252, 0.04776306215161907, 0.012746070656677289, 0.6795999563456283, 0.0, 0.758868635850412, 0.03683964245425729, 0.0068682713852708235, 0.032823673922063874, 0.003665351571592204, 0.9551559676477527, 8.100456759775059e-07, 0.4505111626452941, 0.0005810162386383415, 0.0012932415711059625, 0.6788445277646429, 0.012142736946265484, 0.005069850970692812, 0.00018562470493675213, 8.282818472491296e-06, 0.015383327463087723, 2.6029438981072044e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4811455867420366, 0.015656617921267275, 0.0, 0.0002984167949528438, 0.0, 0.01890157914270045, 0.02789745990024343, 0.00010163806681924167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008761823551363861, 4.813504868253673e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001976801411622161, 0.010540271254144949, 0.026375541192893218, 0.0005613376810691198, 0.0, 0.0021187913230730332, 0.0, 0.0010984430912856318, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9986859512372257e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014898339888616819, 0.0, 0.46691360834870976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8397651878243735e-06, 0.5373409877891049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017022710249089378, 1.0, 0.0007884175006118531 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.309434769029326, "coverage": 0.6191453508307359, "baseline_score": -89.78086248894603, "spot_peer_score": 39.9798193980769, "peer_archived_score": 3.309434769029326, "baseline_archived_score": -89.78086248894603, "spot_peer_archived_score": 39.9798193980769 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723656652.371689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 487, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723656652.371689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 487, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9011713328746369, 0.0988286671253631 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 917, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The World Health Organization (WHO) [describes](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as follows:\n\n>A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response”. This definition implies a situation that is:\n>\n> * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected;\n> * carries implications for public health beyond the affected State’s national border; and\n> * may require immediate international action.\n\nThe International Health Regulations (IHR) Emergency Committee (EC) meets to monitor health risks and provide advice to [WHO Director-General](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director-General_of_the_World_Health_Organization), who makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.\n\nThere [have been seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Declarations) PHEIC declarations since the IHR was established in 2005. The first was swine flu in 2009, and the most recent was Mpox in 2022." }, { "id": 20753, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?", "short_title": "Netanyahu PM Through 2024?", "url_title": "Netanyahu PM Through 2024?", "slug": "netanyahu-pm-through-2024", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T04:38:48.102055Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T09:29:13.832522Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 783, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20753, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T04:38:48.102055Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:46:59.020159Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*\n\n---\n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.\n\n[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. \n\nWithin Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks.", "resolution_criteria": "If Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration of calendar year 2024, this question will resolve as **YES** on January 1, 2025. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point during 2024, this question resolves **NO**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20753, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735683698.941544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 777, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735683698.941544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 777, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9687208298916433 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.448189701794732e-06, 0.11166650782010085, 1.4882830249035326e-06, 0.0, 1.2477347249470202e-05, 0.003117739336148731, 0.00016369990255310138, 0.0, 5.877462845279067e-07, 0.0018597881048569357, 0.001360792341982467, 0.0004082521833078034, 8.654380151358852e-06, 0.0005403867803396236, 0.0007941180928678466, 0.00025941639992760796, 0.00011699240885741577, 2.8121832787763385e-05, 1.641869260061322e-08, 0.0004201207082887917, 0.003951110274849064, 7.613276299585012e-07, 0.0, 0.0005006131841065936, 0.004120904913123321, 0.004160827517199648, 0.001920441752029609, 5.1464112572445696e-05, 0.008623851744439078, 0.0, 0.0032636648762391102, 0.0006868054816352036, 9.785732590760277e-06, 0.018045073045464908, 6.938752744204472e-05, 0.00494408580391275, 0.002358926901544356, 0.009111915808851817, 0.003112233201600623, 1.828550157568801e-06, 0.03241523110253605, 0.0022756728262312517, 0.006138663510944981, 0.00928000939264283, 0.006749164272437774, 0.0032397652418522335, 0.0010092550786612654, 0.000281472165173373, 0.0, 0.009838873487536773, 0.05696937046410343, 0.016306168046793072, 0.00011348948195645411, 0.015832756260338608, 0.009482131018035323, 0.021378441056218094, 0.0007497041415495064, 0.0012539626983746343, 0.0, 0.004261022531236007, 0.04360387538584811, 0.002423907123851797, 0.008599691039307389, 0.00036283202696918784, 4.291581425545275e-09, 0.08178473228274277, 0.024043333090601172, 0.017198131201211667, 0.0052640088923801235, 0.013598786462544386, 0.03649984867899065, 0.00010745642468662852, 0.0018689022046508158, 0.005793295398615136, 0.000117508565709769, 0.21041160592809477, 0.012524864205655059, 0.17897641955253674, 6.006354651868072e-09, 0.02950698081715977, 0.798830527993807, 0.05567592038427932, 0.019174254782868033, 0.2135824447885504, 0.021197003945768015, 0.5638230568845184, 0.09073729039617998, 0.01838654355296402, 0.27518720906537514, 0.2614983665759647, 2.0957607882841325, 0.24218408296366584, 0.6279307408549253, 0.19805472913927652, 1.0024643470928711, 2.32212859748883, 2.043255655973361, 2.027429820614736, 5.974490535773759, 34.34318468627827 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 39.65564343721717, "peer_score": 38.731498924312874, "coverage": 0.9999337532913953, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999337532913953, "spot_peer_score": 12.98004490200633, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": 39.65564343721717, "peer_archived_score": 38.731498924312874, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.98004490200633, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728292163.347443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 765, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728292163.347443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 765, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04883521430391202, 0.951164785696088 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 40, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2139, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*\n\n---\n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.\n\n[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. \n\nWithin Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks." }, { "id": 20752, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?", "short_title": "Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024", "url_title": "Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024", "slug": "russo-ukraine-cease-fire-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T04:24:49.492810Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.198786Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 303, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T18:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1142, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20752, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T04:24:49.492810Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T18:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T11:07:37.520907Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 2023, the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict remains complex and dynamic, with no clear indications of an imminent bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement. The war, which began when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has continued with varying intensity.\n\nRecent developments include ongoing hostilities in various regions, including Kherson and the industrial city of Avdiivka, indicating that the conflict remains active with no significant moves towards a ceasefire or peace talks. The Ukrainian military has adopted a more defensive posture after failing to achieve a major breakthrough in their months-long counteroffensive, as [noted by the United Kingdom’s Defence Ministry](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/analysts-ukraines-forces-pivoting-defense-after-russia-held-105807988).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral cease-fire begins at any point between December 23rd, 2023 and December 31, 2024 and stands for at least 30 days. (The latest possible ceasefire, by this criterion, begins December 31, 2024 and stands through January 30, 2025.) A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by January 30th, 2025.\n\nThe ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735697251.669679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735697251.669679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.033232642844289874 ], "histogram": [ [ 39.239668974656226, 14.727857659540053, 3.3969396276488415, 1.1723389147398482, 0.22219984791042985, 2.3219985693127003, 0.09437608077198895, 0.14063939602213263, 0.06046352148639196, 0.021204488299667333, 1.195208954344986, 0.07567210236977556, 0.13436167397420734, 0.0034786074937845387, 0.32733734241107565, 0.2632729781588651, 0.10201272075793164, 0.005003889314895836, 8.10583172100263e-05, 3.042812755148003e-05, 0.17934081706949773, 2.099977556735762e-06, 6.922034647683577e-05, 7.884377919813609e-07, 2.1029000350116103e-06, 0.04102477316670575, 1.2796938867438462e-05, 4.711872456531647e-06, 4.4202265254099855e-05, 0.0, 0.010433234722007868, 1.6679867337596186e-07, 2.3788322204234074e-05, 0.0005731048533992827, 2.6709184244839726e-06, 2.115025877966592e-05, 0.15534604828228185, 8.24234136129819e-08, 1.3068337253702362e-09, 2.3771492631825087e-06, 0.21252020164821475, 0.0, 6.3843278803943315e-06, 0.0, 1.5632016310743996e-07, 4.19637494017629e-08, 0.0, 4.4547649667429583e-08, 0.0, 5.706138418676757e-07, 0.0029483284340184597, 0.0, 5.967525897143277e-10, 2.327729375715118e-05, 0.0, 0.20290704731972325, 1.0988195257695604e-05, 2.218684961052645e-12, 0.0, 0.000362834553747798, 0.5184022818331496, 1.9415177828110424e-09, 3.083039609843048e-10, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6534067467933637e-06, 0.0030912245025661957, 1.534932736039366e-05, 1.2725213332450073e-11, 2.0769899124765595e-08, 0.0004128314099995039, 2.2027967915886174e-06, 3.21687202763029e-05, 0.0, 2.0778626906258446e-07, 4.801405254658835e-05, 3.579572050284643e-05, 0.002275822912596308, 0.0145869673644274, 0.0, 0.9284164627867245, 0.0, 8.16636553077236e-09, 0.0, 1.0762985674801747e-07, 9.6140820266708e-15, 7.467287852087039e-14, 6.247324974504374e-09, 2.545331540667403e-13, 0.0, 3.487874451205796e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007507195158433541, 9.429519614382538e-13, 0.10285583742716621 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998973144999285, "peer_score": 24.622798024295662, "coverage": 0.9246758749726977, "baseline_score": 85.3853943613867, "spot_peer_score": 19.821520343117935, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 24.622798024295662, "baseline_archived_score": 85.3853943613867, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.821520343117935, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287929.734328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1117, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287929.734328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1117, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 46, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2546, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 2023, the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict remains complex and dynamic, with no clear indications of an imminent bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement. The war, which began when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has continued with varying intensity.\n\nRecent developments include ongoing hostilities in various regions, including Kherson and the industrial city of Avdiivka, indicating that the conflict remains active with no significant moves towards a ceasefire or peace talks. The Ukrainian military has adopted a more defensive posture after failing to achieve a major breakthrough in their months-long counteroffensive, as [noted by the United Kingdom’s Defence Ministry](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/analysts-ukraines-forces-pivoting-defense-after-russia-held-105807988)." } ] }
