Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3240
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The top league of the sport known as 'America's pastime', it is one of the world's most watched sports leagues, with the 2022 World Series attracting over [11.5 million viewers](https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2022/10/world-series-ratings-game-1-phillies-astros-viewership-fox/) per game. \n\nMLB is a 'closed league' - meaning that the number and location of teams is determined by the existing owners of the league's franchises. On occasion, MLB 'expands', meaning that the existing owners agree to add additional teams into the league, historically in exchange for a large monetary sum. This has substantial financial and cultural consequences, with vast sums of money transferred between billionaires and the citizens of new cities having the chance to root for a hometown baseball team (often in exchange for their taxpayer dollars - teams tend to be wooed to a city by the local government offering public funding for stadiums and other infrastructure).\n\nThe number of teams in MLB is currently 30. This question asks whether the number of teams playing in the league will increase as a result of expansion by 2030.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if a Major League Baseball team, enfranchised during an expansion process (i.e. a totally new franchise as recognized by Major League Baseball, not an existing franchise that has moved the location of its home stadium) plays in a regular season game before or during the 2030 regular season.", "fine_print": "What is considered a regular season game will follow the definition of Major League Baseball at that time.", "post_id": 17325, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757857447.678741, "end_time": 1759095930.045695, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757857447.678741, "end_time": 1759095930.045695, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.45238862315765943 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 1.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.36493561440074684, 0.8929389982591724, 0.1313895930683709, 0.9696617405915442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288602.455782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288602.455782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7314630238025301, 0.26853697619746986 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Major League Baseball, a North American sports league, is a business worth almost [$11bn annually](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2023/01/10/mlb-sets-new-revenue-record-exceeding-108-billion-for-2022/). The top league of the sport known as 'America's pastime', it is one of the world's most watched sports leagues, with the 2022 World Series attracting over [11.5 million viewers](https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2022/10/world-series-ratings-game-1-phillies-astros-viewership-fox/) per game. \n\nMLB is a 'closed league' - meaning that the number and location of teams is determined by the existing owners of the league's franchises. On occasion, MLB 'expands', meaning that the existing owners agree to add additional teams into the league, historically in exchange for a large monetary sum. This has substantial financial and cultural consequences, with vast sums of money transferred between billionaires and the citizens of new cities having the chance to root for a hometown baseball team (often in exchange for their taxpayer dollars - teams tend to be wooed to a city by the local government offering public funding for stadiums and other infrastructure).\n\nThe number of teams in MLB is currently 30. This question asks whether the number of teams playing in the league will increase as a result of expansion by 2030." }, { "id": 17324, "title": "Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?", "short_title": "Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Spring 2023?", "url_title": "Ukrainian Counteroffensive in Spring 2023?", "slug": "ukrainian-counteroffensive-in-spring-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-02T16:05:56.445487Z", "published_at": "2023-06-03T16:17:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.991839Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-03T16:17:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-08T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-08T15:38:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-03T16:17:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "π° Breaking News Tournament π°", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "π° Breaking News Tournament π°", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17324, "title": "Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-02T16:05:56.445487Z", "open_time": "2023-06-03T16:17:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-04T04:11:46.328356Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-04T04:11:46.328356Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-08T15:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-08T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-08T15:38:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ukraine is [widely expected](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/4/22/23693259/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-spring) to launch a counteroffensive this spring.\n\nOn June 2, 2023, President Zelenskyy said:\n\n>This isnβt a movie. Itβs difficult for me to say how you will see the counteroffensive. The main thing is that Russia sees it, and that it doesnβt just see it, but also feels it. And we mean the troops that have occupied our territory in particular. The result of the counteroffensive is the liberation of our territories. When that happens, you'll know it's happening.\n\n[Preparations](https://kyivindependent.com/on-ukraines-southern-front-line-tension-in-the-air-before-decisive-counteroffensive/) for the offensive are reportedly underway, and Ukrainian officials have said the offensive could come \"[soon](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4024987-ukrainian-official-hints-counteroffensive-coming-soon/).\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if two of the following sources publish reports, prior to 11:59pm UTC on Tuesday, June 20, that unequivocally state the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun.\n\n- [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news)\n- [The Economist](https://www.economist.com)\n- [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com)\n- [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com)\n\nFor the purposes of this resolution, only these sources will be considered.\n\nTo meet the threshold for a **Yes** resolution, a report must rely on sourced reporting. Sourced reporting can include government sources quoted on condition of anonymity, but the report must not be an opinion piece.\n\nFor example:\n\n- The hypothetical statement \"A high-level official in the US intelligence community stated, on the condition of anonymity, that Ukraine's counteroffensive began on June 9th\" would be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n- The hypothetical statements \"Ukraine's much-anticipated offensive may begin at any moment\" or \"It appears Ukraine's offensive may have begun\" would not be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n\nIf there is ambiguity about whether a statement meets this threshold, a team of three Metaculus moderators will make the final determination.", "fine_print": "It is possible the actual start date of the offensive is before June 21, 2023 and that there is evidence available attesting to an earlier start date, but that the question resolves **No** because that evidence has not been reported definitively in one of the four listed outlets.", "post_id": 17324, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686243030.120385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686243030.120385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9242730352659183 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.11515981116916688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001202313269185036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005278284780573776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5111189699699573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006905453924573398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000244672240485987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.784846217452747, 0.0, 0.0022849581603560792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4589859784970296, 0.0, 0.04541843129948949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04860115310995438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08713413997822003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031831285372123284, 0.6633547353867637, 0.6397952896088543, 0.024680744930244594, 0.14156091856216457, 0.0, 0.9180103413220253, 0.0, 1.703851188987512, 0.3466377511063886, 0.0009338405106678075, 0.588428353993699, 0.5782805728338711, 0.12371919545624935, 2.0962396711080475, 9.496081151198354 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.939503712146546, "coverage": 0.28703015830095635, "baseline_score": 22.517519806372512, "spot_peer_score": -1.8731969443047165, "peer_archived_score": 5.939503712146546, "baseline_archived_score": 22.517519806372512, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.8731969443047165 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686237952.093565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686237952.093565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07210981595648969, 0.9278901840435103 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 292, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ukraine is [widely expected](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/4/22/23693259/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-spring) to launch a counteroffensive this spring.\n\nOn June 2, 2023, President Zelenskyy said:\n\n>This isnβt a movie. Itβs difficult for me to say how you will see the counteroffensive. The main thing is that Russia sees it, and that it doesnβt just see it, but also feels it. And we mean the troops that have occupied our territory in particular. The result of the counteroffensive is the liberation of our territories. When that happens, you'll know it's happening.\n\n[Preparations](https://kyivindependent.com/on-ukraines-southern-front-line-tension-in-the-air-before-decisive-counteroffensive/) for the offensive are reportedly underway, and Ukrainian officials have said the offensive could come \"[soon](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4024987-ukrainian-official-hints-counteroffensive-coming-soon/).\"" }, { "id": 17323, "title": "Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?", "short_title": "EU Endorses AI Act before 6/16/23?", "url_title": "EU Endorses AI Act before 6/16/23?", "slug": "eu-endorses-ai-act-before-61623", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-02T15:11:08.253517Z", "published_at": "2023-06-03T15:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.319949Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-03T15:15:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": 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"actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T12:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [AI Act](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu) is a proposed law in the European Union to regulate artificial intelligence. If approved, the Act would impose [new rules](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20230505IPR84904/ai-act-a-step-closer-to-the-first-rules-on-artificial-intelligence) governing the deployment of AI systems. \n\nThe current [proposal](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-europe-fit-for-the-digital-age/file-regulation-on-artificial-intelligence?sid=7001) would base rules on a risk classification system, with four levels of risk:\n\n> - **Unacceptable risk AI.** Harmful uses of AI that contravene EU values (such as social scoring by governments) will be banned because of the unacceptable risk they create; \n> - **High-risk AI**. A number of AI systems (listed in an Annex) that are creating adverse impact on people's safety or their fundamental rights are considered to be high-risk. In order to ensure trust and consistent high level of protection of safety and fundamental rights, a range of mandatory requirements (including a conformity assessment) would apply to all high-risks systems; \n- **Limited risk AI.** Some AI systems will be subject to a limited set of obligations (e.g. transparency); \n- **Minimal risk AI.** All other AI systems can be developed and used in the EU without additional legal obligations than existing legislation.\n\nOn May 11th, the EU Parliamentβs Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs and Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection [adopted a negotiating mandate](https://ogletree.com/insights/european-parliaments-leading-committees-vote-to-approve-ai-act/) for the AI Act.\n\nBefore the final law can be negotiated, the EU Parliament needs to endorse this negotiating mandate. Parliament is in session June 12-15, with debate on the AI act [scheduled](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/sedcms/documents/PRIORITY_INFO/1027/SYN_POJ_June_STR_EN.pdf) for June 13th.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the EU Parliament endorses a negotiating mandate for the [AI Act](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-europe-fit-for-the-digital-age/file-regulation-on-artificial-intelligence?sid=7001) before June 16, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17323, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686751338.471783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686751338.471783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6292465202627515 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.10223706135307076, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.13332134712720678, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 2.2640810799730318, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0337991717578503, 0.013162951709963655, 0.5618459919575545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6613535190633767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.30966405694456456, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8466476610531595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.688980221901701, "coverage": 0.8730650293118785, "baseline_score": 36.5715875913231, "spot_peer_score": -11.232320076103502, "peer_archived_score": 0.688980221901701, "baseline_archived_score": 36.5715875913231, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.232320076103502 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686739634.977779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686739634.977779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41985682136022295, 0.580143178639777 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [AI Act](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu) is a proposed law in the European Union to regulate artificial intelligence. 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However, Georgiaβs territorial integrity has been challenged by Russia, which supports two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and invaded Georgia in 2008. Russia also considers Georgia to be within its sphere of influence and opposes its integration with the West.\n\nIrakli Garibashvili is a Georgian politician and a former business executive who has served as the prime minister of Georgia since 22 February 2021. Garibashvili has tried to balance Georgiaβs Western aspirations with pragmatic engagement with Russia, while avoiding direct confrontation or provocation. He has expressed his commitment to joining NATO and the EU, but has also maintained diplomatic and economic ties with Russia, which is Georgiaβs largest trading partner. He has condemned Russiaβs aggression against Ukraine and supported its territorial integrity, but has also refrained from joining the Western sanctions against Russia. He has called for dialogue and cooperation with Russia on resolving the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but has also rejected any compromise on Georgiaβs sovereignty.\n\nAs of Spring 2023, considerable political uncertainty existed in Georgia stemming from the disputed parliamentary elections in October 2020. The opposition parties have refused to recognize the results and have boycotted the parliament, demanding new elections and electoral reforms. The crisis has led to mass protests, violence, arrests and international mediation efforts. Garibashvili has agreed to some concessions, such as releasing some political prisoners and promising electoral reforms, but has also rejected some demands of the opposition, such as early elections or power-sharing arrangements.\n\nThe human rights situation in Georgia has deteriorated, with increasing attacks on civil society activists, journalists, opposition figures and minority groups. 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However, Georgiaβs territorial integrity has been challenged by Russia, which supports two breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and invaded Georgia in 2008. Russia also considers Georgia to be within its sphere of influence and opposes its integration with the West.\n\nIrakli Garibashvili is a Georgian politician and a former business executive who has served as the prime minister of Georgia since 22 February 2021. Garibashvili has tried to balance Georgiaβs Western aspirations with pragmatic engagement with Russia, while avoiding direct confrontation or provocation. He has expressed his commitment to joining NATO and the EU, but has also maintained diplomatic and economic ties with Russia, which is Georgiaβs largest trading partner. He has condemned Russiaβs aggression against Ukraine and supported its territorial integrity, but has also refrained from joining the Western sanctions against Russia. He has called for dialogue and cooperation with Russia on resolving the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but has also rejected any compromise on Georgiaβs sovereignty.\n\nAs of Spring 2023, considerable political uncertainty existed in Georgia stemming from the disputed parliamentary elections in October 2020. The opposition parties have refused to recognize the results and have boycotted the parliament, demanding new elections and electoral reforms. The crisis has led to mass protests, violence, arrests and international mediation efforts. Garibashvili has agreed to some concessions, such as releasing some political prisoners and promising electoral reforms, but has also rejected some demands of the opposition, such as early elections or power-sharing arrangements.\n\nThe human rights situation in Georgia has deteriorated, with increasing attacks on civil society activists, journalists, opposition figures and minority groups. Garibashvili has been accused of failing to protect human rights defenders and media freedom, cracking down on dissenting voices and enabling a climate of impunity for perpetrators of violence.\n\nGeorgia's next parliamentary elections, which will elect the 150 members of the Parliament of Georgia for a four-year term, are to be held on 26 October 2024." }, { "id": 17316, "title": "Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine retakes Polohy by 1 Oct. 2023?", "url_title": "Ukraine retakes Polohy by 1 Oct. 2023?", "slug": "ukraine-retakes-polohy-by-1-oct-2023", "author_id": 133711, "author_username": "Stilico", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-06-01T21:50:32.810195Z", "published_at": "2023-06-09T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.389719Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-09T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-09T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17316, "title": "Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-06-01T21:50:32.810195Z", "open_time": "2023-06-09T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-11T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-11T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 1. June the [Ukrainian spring counteroffensive](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/30/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-preparations-intl/index.html ) has [not yet happened](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-war-attack-b962aba2b779044d22b11dab719f1614). In preparation for this counter offensive, the Ukrainian army allegedly has [formed several new battalions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/02/ukraine-forms-eight-new-storm-brigades-for-counterattack), several of them with [western tanks and AFVs](). \nAccordingly, the Russian side has reacted to this threat by [building defensive fortifications](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-building-defensive-fortifications-zaporizhzhia-ukraine-counteroffensive-1795285) in territories it controls. \nThe counteroffensive itself seems to be quite [imminent](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/27/world/europe/ukraine-tanks-counteroffensive.html) or might have already even have [begun](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/27/first-operations-in-ukraine-counteroffensive-have-begun-says-top-official).\n\nAs the city of Polohy is about 20 km from the frontline and in the direction towards which it is [\"most obvious\"](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/ukraine-has-choice-of-targets-as-it-plots-counteroffensive) the counteroffensive would take place towards it is apparent to ask - will the Ukrainian army manage to retake Polohy with this summer offensive?", "resolution_criteria": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n\nThe question will resolve Yes if, at any point before or by 1. Oct 2023, ISW shows the the following two locations: \n\n- (Polohy Train station [47.47675302706511, 36.2585252900517](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Polohy/@47.4766526,36.2585067,17.21z/data=!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x40dd9b2649ab981b:0xd41838f7245d598!2sPolohy,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+70600!3b1!8m2!3d47.4747938!4d36.2488829!16zL20vMGd0MjNk!3m5!1s0x40dd9b287f9a747b:0x15bbdf72e7132a39!8m2!3d47.4766792!4d36.2584675!16s%2Fg%2F1pv17_nm?entry=ttu) \n\n- House of Culture \"Miner\" [47.49121534220172, 36.191507899530706](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Budynok+Kul%CA%B9tury+%22Hirnyk%22/@47.4885074,36.1914102,14.81z/data=!4m15!1m8!3m7!1s0x40dd9b2649ab981b:0xd41838f7245d598!2sPolohy,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine,+70600!3b1!8m2!3d47.4747938!4d36.2488829!16zL20vMGd0MjNk!3m5!1s0x40dd9bba4e3d33b9:0x7449dfd318d8c9fe!8m2!3d47.4908382!4d36.1908582!16s%2Fg%2F11csbfflvv?entry=ttu)\n\nunder any of the following categories:\n\n- Ukrainian Control\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location\n\nThe question will resolve No if by 1. Oct 2023 the aforementioned places are assessed to be still be within the following categories: \n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n- Assessed Russian Advance\n- Claimed Russian Control\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building\n\nThe exact location of these places on [ISW map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) can be found by clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for\n\"Budynok KulΚΉtury \"Hirnyk\", Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 70600\" for the House of Culture. The train station couldn't be searched for easily, but it is quite distinctly findable on the map because of the surrounding railways.\n\n The spirit of the question is to assess a possible summer offensives possibility of retaking Polohy. As summer offensives can lead into fall/autumn and it takes time for information to be known with any degree of certainty, the success of this possible summer offensive question was extended to 1. October.", "fine_print": "This question is about whether the Ukraine manages to take back Polohy, not whether they are still holding it by 1 Oct. As such this question can be resolved as a Yes the moment aforementioned conditions are satisfied.", "post_id": 17316, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696096842.789086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696096842.789086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.01577175361931378 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.76711953593455, 3.8317646368670006, 0.6598452435245858, 0.22566451072827937, 0.09979296489730455, 0.20756684116689814, 0.19332022685300912, 0.0, 0.20047363181189098, 0.05529962581368988, 0.12387123624156443, 0.0, 0.03675560035970638, 0.05133992909661968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1098048767104905, 0.02161474301439808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010790073396447676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023407900061487357, 0.011989632823413173, 0.31433791509644904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027314582170858293, 0.005409792956936867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036464791920768538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033866418711839133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031655044817970844, 0.0007321358620784834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004075565365447296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000560044871523829, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 24.096022073346944, "coverage": 0.999943781514612, "baseline_score": 63.46286551792758, "spot_peer_score": -56.10314951824912, "peer_archived_score": 24.096022073346944, "baseline_archived_score": 63.46286551792758, "spot_peer_archived_score": -56.10314951824912 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696096842.813603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696096842.813603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 370, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 1. June the [Ukrainian spring counteroffensive](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/30/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-preparations-intl/index.html ) has [not yet happened](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-counteroffensive-war-attack-b962aba2b779044d22b11dab719f1614). In preparation for this counter offensive, the Ukrainian army allegedly has [formed several new battalions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/02/ukraine-forms-eight-new-storm-brigades-for-counterattack), several of them with [western tanks and AFVs](). \nAccordingly, the Russian side has reacted to this threat by [building defensive fortifications](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-building-defensive-fortifications-zaporizhzhia-ukraine-counteroffensive-1795285) in territories it controls. \nThe counteroffensive itself seems to be quite [imminent](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/27/world/europe/ukraine-tanks-counteroffensive.html) or might have already even have [begun](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/27/first-operations-in-ukraine-counteroffensive-have-begun-says-top-official).\n\nAs the city of Polohy is about 20 km from the frontline and in the direction towards which it is [\"most obvious\"](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/ukraine-has-choice-of-targets-as-it-plots-counteroffensive) the counteroffensive would take place towards it is apparent to ask - will the Ukrainian army manage to retake Polohy with this summer offensive?" }, { "id": 17294, "title": "Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?", "short_title": "Fed raises interest rates in June 2023?", "url_title": "Fed raises interest rates in June 2023?", "slug": "fed-raises-interest-rates-in-june-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-30T22:11:53.382083Z", "published_at": "2023-06-02T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.936098Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-02T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T18:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T18:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-06-02T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "π°Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament π°", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "π°Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament π°", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17294, "title": "Will the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates at the June 13-14, 2023 meeting?", "created_at": "2023-05-30T22:11:53.382083Z", "open_time": "2023-06-02T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-03T00:15:12.917089Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-03T00:15:12.917089Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T18:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-14T18:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-14T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.\n\nThe primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.\n\nThe next FOMC meeting will be [June 13-14](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm).", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the Federal Open Market Committee announces an increase in the target [Fed Funds Rate](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/federal-funds-rate/#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Open%20Markets%20Committee,currently%205.00%25%20to%205.25%25.), above the current target of 5.00 - 5.25, during the June 13-14, 2023 meeting.", "fine_print": "An increase announced before June 13 will not trigger a **Yes** resolution.", "post_id": 17294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686758169.804231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686758169.804231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1609418322201544 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3448159858799153, 0.0, 0.8442492377349747, 0.5783119299361837, 2.5605395745470183, 1.5612035277678418, 0.0, 0.5956380251215266, 0.4681721830972806, 1.5981570821146656, 0.0, 0.4139483126176931, 0.0, 0.23201409926898375, 0.9997018848651382, 0.00035468804191158816, 0.8660544952920366, 0.0, 0.6617120532081361, 0.5252736757799548, 0.0, 0.0012208548944264495, 0.0, 0.17672342147353706, 0.16529847644301598, 0.05718238516403556, 0.13808700147580777, 0.054342032088705736, 0.0, 1.1143228002118828, 0.00805738445541778, 0.01420933479854029, 0.21695324208907182, 0.0, 0.04643062857476818, 0.20639999363533068, 0.5244822735200538, 0.07417268858402004, 0.0, 0.06332470896512106, 0.012756731128426116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0756928178296035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1352811661155243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041290671510500594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004168619742933615, 0.010199944840930094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026208098393045902 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.015060136783736, "coverage": 0.9995754461420446, "baseline_score": 52.34324981603878, "spot_peer_score": -10.809720831781013, "peer_archived_score": 12.015060136783736, "baseline_archived_score": 52.34324981603878, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.809720831781013 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686758169.825645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686758169.825645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9774940387264506, 0.022505961273549445 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 170, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.\n\nThe primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.\n\nThe next FOMC meeting will be [June 13-14](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)." }, { "id": 17293, "title": "Will the main finding of study 1 from βRelational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-beingβ in PNAS replicate?", "short_title": "Replication: Social Portfolios and Well-Being", "url_title": "Replication: Social Portfolios and Well-Being", "slug": "replication-social-portfolios-and-well-being", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 129286, "username": "Transparent_Replications" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-30T15:41:40.433622Z", "published_at": "2023-05-31T15:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.448728Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-31T15:20:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-20T00:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-20T00:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-31T15:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "π§βπ€βπ§", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Transparent Replications", "slug": "transparent-replications", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Transparent Replications", "slug": "transparent-replications", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17293, "title": "Will the main finding of study 1 from βRelational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-beingβ in PNAS replicate?", "created_at": "2023-05-30T15:41:40.433622Z", "open_time": "2023-05-31T15:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-02T15:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-02T15:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-20T00:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-20T00:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-20T00:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Transparent Replications](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in *Nature* or *Science* involving online participants. β[Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119)β is one of the most recent psychology papers involving online participants published in the *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*. Study 1 from that paper met our [criteria for replication](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/what-we-do/).\n\n### Context: How often have social science studies replicated in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)\n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in *Nature* or *Science* (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\nThe replication described here was run as part of Transparent Replications by Clearer Thinking, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if youβre interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the previous replications weβve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if we find a positive statistically significant (\\(p < 0.05\\)) coefficient for the βsocial portfolio diversityβ variable (defined below) in a linear regression predicting well-being (with a measure of the total amount of in-person social interaction included as a control variable). Otherwise it will resolve as **No**.\n\n# Original Study Results\n\nThe primary hypothesis in the [original study](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119) was that in-person social portfolio diversity predicts higher well-being, even when controlling for the proportion of episodes in the day that included in-person social interaction.\n\nThe authors ran a linear regression predicting participants' well-being, with (1) social portfolio diversity and (2) the proportion of episodes in the day that included in-person social interaction as predictor variables. They found a positive, statistically significant (\\(p < 0.05\\)) coefficient for social portfolio diversity. We will consider this result to have replicated if we also find a positive, statistically significant coefficient for that variable when we run the same linear regression using newly-collected data.\n\n# Study Summary\n\n<img src=\"https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Prediction_Version_-_Collins_et_al_Study_1_Diagram_UhNkYE8.jpeg\" alt=\"Summary of study 'Relation diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being\" />\n*[Higher resolution version available here](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xHYpaWcNHdes_fyF8vnzuK6p03ElWpa9/view?usp=sharing)*\n\nIn the [original study](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119) and in our replication, participants answered questions about their subjective well-being, then they filled out a diary reporting on their day the previous day. For each episode of their day they were asked if they were with anyone else in person. When they reported spending time in-person with others, they were asked to check off the relationship types they had with the people who were present (e.g., spouse/significant other, friends, co-workers, etc.) Participants then answered an attention check question and a few demographic questions.\n\nThe social portfolio diversity variable, in both the original study and in our replication, is calculated using the following equation:\n\n\\[H = -1*\\sum_{i=1}^s (p_i*\\ln p_i),\\]\n\nThe original study authors chose this formula because it is similar to Shannonβs biodiversity index. The equation involves computing, for each of the relationship categories a person reported having interactions with, the proportion of their total interactions that this category represented (which the authors call β\\(p_i\\)β). For each category of relationship, this proportion is multiplied by its natural logarithm. Finally, all these products are summed together and multiplied by negative one so that the final result is a positive number.\n\nThe proportion of episodes of in-person social interaction is the number of episodes in the day reported with in-person social interaction over the total number of episodes reported for the day.\n\nThe well-being dependent variable is calculated by averaging two questions about subjective well-being, one asking about how happy the person has felt over the last 24 hours (from 0 to 10), and the other asking them to place themselves on a ladder from 0 to 10 representing how well their life is going.\n\nThe original study included 578 participants after excluding participants who failed the attention check. Our replication included 963 participants after excluding those who failed the attention check (which meant we had 90% power to detect an effect size as low as 75% of the original effect size) recruited from MTurk via [Positly](https://www.positly.com/). [You can preview our replication study (as participants saw it) here](https://www.guidedtrack.com/programs/ardof21/preview).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686322888.845773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.777 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686322888.845773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.777 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22299999999999998, 0.777 ], "means": [ 0.741722882159093 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.143130845855109, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 1.0957028005165046, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.32677805160011447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 1.9806349240003884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6316182707232363, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.34583797532781, "coverage": 0.9961005406193775, "baseline_score": 58.90736563175317, "spot_peer_score": 18.931121317291435, "peer_archived_score": 8.34583797532781, "baseline_archived_score": 58.90736563175317, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.931121317291435 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686728226.383242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686728226.383242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38016720914673785, 0.6198327908532621 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Transparent Replications](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in *Nature* or *Science* involving online participants. β[Relational diversity in social portfolios predicts well-being](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2120668119)β is one of the most recent psychology papers involving online participants published in the *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*. Study 1 from that paper met our [criteria for replication](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/what-we-do/).\n\n### Context: How often have social science studies replicated in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)\n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in *Nature* or *Science* (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\nThe replication described here was run as part of Transparent Replications by Clearer Thinking, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if youβre interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the previous replications weβve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/)." }, { "id": 17285, "title": "Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?", "short_title": "New Hampshire Freest State Until 2033?", "url_title": "New Hampshire Freest State Until 2033?", "slug": "new-hampshire-freest-state-until-2033", "author_id": 121431, "author_username": "Neniu", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-29T05:55:26.967388Z", "published_at": "2023-06-01T00:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.587397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-01T00:58:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-01T00:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "ποΈ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17285, "title": "Will New Hampshire remain the freest state in the United States, according to the Cato Institute, from 2023 to 2033?", "created_at": "2023-05-29T05:55:26.967388Z", "open_time": "2023-06-01T00:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-03T00:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-03T00:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Cato Institute](https://www.cato.org/), which according to their website \"is a public policy research organizationβor think tankβthat creates a presence for and promotes libertarian ideas in policy debates,\" publishes [Freedom in the 50 States](https://www.freedominthe50states.org/), a ranking of how free each of the states in the USA is. For the past four years, [New Hampshire](https://www.freedominthe50states.org/overall/new-hampshire) has been #1 in this ranking. It has been #1 for the eight of the last nine years, ranking #2 in 2015. This question asks if this trend will continue for the next decade or not.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if every [Freedom in the 50 States](https://www.freedominthe50states.org/) report published before 2035 covering years from 2023 to 2033 ranks New Hampshire #1 on the Freedom in the 50 States Index. \n\nThis question will be annulled if no additional Freedom in the 50 States reports are published between the years 2023 and 2035.", "fine_print": "- Note that the resolve date isn't until 2035. This is to give time for Cato to retroactively publish a report that includes dates before 2033.\n- Because of the wording of the resolution criteria, if Cato publishes (for instance) the - 7th edition of the report which states NH ranks #1 for the year 2025, but the 8th edition retroactively downgrades that to #2, this question resolves **no**. On the other hand, if the 7th edition ranks NH #2 for 2025, but the 8th edition ranks NH #1 for 2025, this question still resolves **no**.", "post_id": 17285, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741613616.143526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741613616.143526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3433009734376252 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0840163380547865, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.7653423179917583, 0.6643928047021255, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289902.138823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289902.138823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8241706630200916, 0.1758293369799084 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Cato Institute](https://www.cato.org/), which according to their website \"is a public policy research organizationβor think tankβthat creates a presence for and promotes libertarian ideas in policy debates,\" publishes [Freedom in the 50 States](https://www.freedominthe50states.org/), a ranking of how free each of the states in the USA is. For the past four years, [New Hampshire](https://www.freedominthe50states.org/overall/new-hampshire) has been #1 in this ranking. It has been #1 for the eight of the last nine years, ranking #2 in 2015. This question asks if this trend will continue for the next decade or not." }, { "id": 17284, "title": "Will Bayer cease selling all Roundup products, or substantially reformulate all Roundup products in the United States before 2040?", "short_title": "Will Bayer stop selling Roundup in the US?", "url_title": "Will Bayer stop selling Roundup in the US?", "slug": "will-bayer-stop-selling-roundup-in-the-us", "author_id": 128315, "author_username": "geode", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-29T03:17:07.349767Z", "published_at": "2023-06-03T18:37:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.455704Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-03T18:37:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-06-03T18:37:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "π¬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17284, "title": "Will Bayer cease selling all Roundup products, or substantially reformulate all Roundup products in the United States before 2040?", "created_at": "2023-05-29T03:17:07.349767Z", "open_time": "2023-06-03T18:37:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-05T18:37:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-05T18:37:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-28T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Roundup is the brand name of a systemic, broad-spectrum glyphosate-based herbicide originally produced by Monsanto, which Bayer acquired in 2018. [Glyphosate](https://www.epa.gov/ingredients-used-pesticide-products/glyphosate) is the most widely used herbicide in the United States. The main active ingredient of Roundup is the isopropylamine salt of glyphosate. Another ingredient of Roundup is the surfactant POEA (polyethoxylated tallow amine).\n\nSome [studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6322310/\n) and legal cases have suggested a link between glyphosate and [harmful health effects](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5515989/\n), such as cancer, while others claim its safety at approved usage levels. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) currently considers glyphosate safe when used correctly, but public concern and ongoing research may influence future assessments and policy decisions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Bayer publicly announces a substantial change in the formulation of all Roundup sold in the United States that includes a significant reduction or elimination of glyphosate and/or POEA., or a credible news source reports the same.\n\nThe announcement must clearly indicate that the changes are applicable to Roundup products sold in the United States. If the announcement or news report does not specify the geographic scope, the question will not resolve until it is clear whether the United States is included.\n\nSuch an announcement or report must be made before January 1, 2040.\n\nIf Bayer splits into multiple entities or sells the Roundup product line to another company, the actions of the entity owning Roundup at the end of 2039 will be considered for resolution.\n\nIf both options occur (ceasing sales and reformulation), the question will still resolve positively.", "fine_print": "A \"substantial change in formulation\" means a significant reduction (at least 50% by weight) or elimination of glyphosate and/or POEA in the formulation of Roundup.\n\nIf Bayer stops selling the Roundup brand but introduces a similar product under a different name, this will not count as a positive resolution unless the new product also meets the criteria for a substantial reformulation.\n\nIf there is no public information available about Bayer's plans for Roundup by the end of December 31, 2039, the question will resolve negatively.", "post_id": 17284, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746209651.28948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.488 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746209651.28948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.488 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.512, 0.488 ], "means": [ 0.49387848759449976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4801465830792688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289283.848834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289283.848834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7054563407521424, 0.29454365924785764 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Roundup is the brand name of a systemic, broad-spectrum glyphosate-based herbicide originally produced by Monsanto, which Bayer acquired in 2018. [Glyphosate](https://www.epa.gov/ingredients-used-pesticide-products/glyphosate) is the most widely used herbicide in the United States. The main active ingredient of Roundup is the isopropylamine salt of glyphosate. Another ingredient of Roundup is the surfactant POEA (polyethoxylated tallow amine).\n\nSome [studies](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6322310/\n) and legal cases have suggested a link between glyphosate and [harmful health effects](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5515989/\n), such as cancer, while others claim its safety at approved usage levels. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) currently considers glyphosate safe when used correctly, but public concern and ongoing research may influence future assessments and policy decisions." }, { "id": 17282, "title": "Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "TSMC Fab Shutdown Before 2025?", "url_title": "TSMC Fab Shutdown Before 2025?", "slug": "tsmc-fab-shutdown-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-27T18:01:54.709081Z", "published_at": "2023-05-30T18:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.489180Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-30T18:36:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:54:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-30T18:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "π€", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:41:09.537049Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:41:09.537049Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "π€", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "π»", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17282, "title": "Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-27T18:01:54.709081Z", "open_time": "2023-05-30T18:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-01T18:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-01T18:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T14:59:47.321949Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC) (TSMC; also called Taiwan Semiconductor) is the world's most valuable semiconductor company. NVIDIA, the main manufacturer of GPUs powering most top AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-4, spends billions on TSMC chips, and in March 2023, the NVIDIA CEO [confirmed plans](https://www.pcgamer.com/nvidia-gpus-made-by-intel-look-like-theyre-actually-going-to-be-a-thing/) to use TSMC's new plant in Arizona.\n\nTSMC is building this new chip fab in Arizona in part due to US subsidies, and presumably in part due to risk of their primary plants in Taiwan due China's posturing. (See [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/) for the probability of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by China by various years.)\n\nIn addition to a full-scale invasion, China may attempt strategic attacks on TSMC, such as via cyberattacks or via social engineering, possibly as part of strategy against Taiwan more generally, or possibly as an attempt to slow down AI progress from consumers of NVIDIA GPUs based on TSMC chips, of which the [US has banned exports to China as of Sept 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if TSMC has a non-scheduled emergency shutdown of any chip manufacturing facility before January 1, 2025, according to credible sources.\n\nThe shutdown may be for any duration, as long as TSMC indicates production has halted.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17282, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654756.132523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654756.132523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03457642013610936 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.590211313103813, 3.0481406971172755, 0.025222677064637565, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.6397445877211616, 0.3625358205289846, 0.4941154159199105, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.01523699425510631, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.32619880252471406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289546.202279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289546.202279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9968265336270932, 0.0031734663729068037 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSMC) (TSMC; also called Taiwan Semiconductor) is the world's most valuable semiconductor company. NVIDIA, the main manufacturer of GPUs powering most top AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-4, spends billions on TSMC chips, and in March 2023, the NVIDIA CEO [confirmed plans](https://www.pcgamer.com/nvidia-gpus-made-by-intel-look-like-theyre-actually-going-to-be-a-thing/) to use TSMC's new plant in Arizona.\n\nTSMC is building this new chip fab in Arizona in part due to US subsidies, and presumably in part due to risk of their primary plants in Taiwan due China's posturing. (See [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/) for the probability of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by China by various years.)\n\nIn addition to a full-scale invasion, China may attempt strategic attacks on TSMC, such as via cyberattacks or via social engineering, possibly as part of strategy against Taiwan more generally, or possibly as an attempt to slow down AI progress from consumers of NVIDIA GPUs based on TSMC chips, of which the [US has banned exports to China as of Sept 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China)." }, { "id": 17280, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?", "short_title": "Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?", "url_title": "Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?", "slug": "frontier-ai-lab-in-china-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:41:09.537049Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:34:07.087134Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "π€", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17280, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-27T17:23:36.654859Z", "open_time": "2023-05-30T19:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-01T19:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-01T19:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-28T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-28T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-28T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of April 2023, the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2.1E+25 FLOPs.\n\nThe largest Chinese-made model is GLM-130B, estimated at 4.60E+22 FLOPs, about 1/500 the amount of GPT-4. It was made by Tsinghua KEG, a university.\n\nAs of April 28, 2023, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI and Google Deepmind [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) (and possibly Anthropic, as the cost to train [Claude](https://www.anthropic.com/index/introducing-claude) has not been publicly estimated). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Microsoft, Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nPotential Chinese companies that could become a Frontier AI Lab are SenseTime, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a Frontier AI Lab in China at any time between May 1, 2023 to January 1, 2026. It must be publicly reported during this period that such an AI lab exists (for example, information reported in February 2026 that a qualifying AI model existed in 2025 will not be included). Any type of organization in China will be included: public or private, commercial or academic, so long as they produce an AI model of the required training cost.\n\nWe define a \"Frontier AI Lab\" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, which as of April 2023 is GPT-4. For example, as of April 2023, a frontier AI lab would be one which has trained a model with more than 2e24 FLOPs. However, this threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nCompute levels will be established by either the lab's own publications or reporting from a credible research institution such as [Epoch](https://epochai.org/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17280, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726705420.945797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726705420.945797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17000000000000004, 0.83 ], "means": [ 0.7645969531268707 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15066042164359664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4033698885951098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15827155080709557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33936474810900363, 0.0, 0.5056906699491653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.447077817155903e-06, 0.09595689042665882, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014947595553296836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22780424723435486, 0.0, 0.7884795022455198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05088729247111954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.870952844665587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.419225343372455e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017891374488695198, 0.0, 0.0006275716769478724, 0.0001996334443375068, 0.0, 0.8984640131412545, 1.035482262614352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011084268203934402, 0.16618929408428004, 8.210370375392484e-05, 0.6674571874742238, 0.10927834561493706, 0.6286925133595159, 1.385802110071662, 0.0, 0.0017913117763406188, 0.23862750930876095, 0.0014020706631319812, 0.9598685516482126, 0.0, 1.0604261650076863, 1.2610486002631118, 0.00011103073813647986, 1.468642040608039, 0.0, 0.20218842689918134, 0.8193473209787554, 0.11332446030139319, 6.096480648742978, 0.0004205389030481444, 0.4981836012707701, 0.00046623274095486183, 0.03321832159300278, 0.6213360285577614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7544286732023044 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.071706790493694, "coverage": 0.38461249783876433, "baseline_score": 25.528683673577415, "spot_peer_score": 46.023283862415155, "peer_archived_score": 5.071706790493694, "baseline_archived_score": 25.528683673577415, "spot_peer_archived_score": 46.023283862415155 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716795541.974762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716795541.974762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21665493528899837, 0.7833450647110016 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 273, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of April 2023, the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2.1E+25 FLOPs.\n\nThe largest Chinese-made model is GLM-130B, estimated at 4.60E+22 FLOPs, about 1/500 the amount of GPT-4. It was made by Tsinghua KEG, a university.\n\nAs of April 28, 2023, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI and Google Deepmind [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) (and possibly Anthropic, as the cost to train [Claude](https://www.anthropic.com/index/introducing-claude) has not been publicly estimated). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Microsoft, Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nPotential Chinese companies that could become a Frontier AI Lab are SenseTime, Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance." }, { "id": 17262, "title": "Will OpenAI report having β₯99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?", "short_title": "OpenAI Uptime in June 2023", "url_title": "OpenAI Uptime in June 2023", "slug": "openai-uptime-in-june-2023", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 130973, "username": "NMorrison" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-25T04:35:25.677823Z", "published_at": "2023-05-27T02:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.228840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-27T02:26:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:57:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-27T02:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 120, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "π€", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T04:28:08.227330Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T04:28:08.227330Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "π° Breaking News Tournament π°", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "π€", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17262, "title": "Will OpenAI report having β₯99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-25T04:35:25.677823Z", "open_time": "2023-05-27T02:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-27T17:04:36.245116Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-27T17:04:36.245116Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T15:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 24, 2023, OpenAI reported a 51-minute outage of ChatGPT (chat.openai.com) causing workers all over the world to grudgingly consider doing their jobs unassisted during that time. OpenAI has a [status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime?page=1) showing, for each calendar day, the number of hours that OpenAI's services were unavailable.\n\nFor chat.openai.com (the web interface, ChatGPT), the uptime has been published since Feburary, with Feburary at 98.28%, March at 99.39%, April at 99.96%, and 99.83% for May as of May 24, 2023.\n\nSoftware reliability is often measured in \"number of 9\"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc. To reach 99.9% uptime, a service must be down for no more than 43 minutes in a 30-day month.\n\nChatGPT reportedly was the software product that grew to 100 million users the fastest of any software product ever, and may struggle to handle the load. However, it would be reasonable to expect it to get more stable over time, and before the outage on May 24, was on track for May to reach 99.9%. What will happen in June?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to **YES** if, on July 1, [OpenAI's status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime/tbwycthtqm69?page=1) for chat.openai.com reports >=99.9% uptime for the month of June, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nForecasters can find the uptime in grey text to the right of the relevant month.\n\nResolution will be based on this page alone, even if considered inaccurate in its reporting. If no such data is reported for June, this question resolves as **AMBIGUOUS**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17262, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688150430.281521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.985 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688150430.281521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.985 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9757550987348392 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0056565179652946435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497083797804496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.88012459426455e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002024613796630103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042490269170560296, 0.0, 0.0021151709828623215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00562583409040171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019976794554547846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013664321495393179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007370950072255752, 0.0, 0.0002463641482708912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001216459774363555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028642989982272903, 0.015443039463310142, 0.006484300268705211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003510959008213827, 0.004248544523158632, 0.0, 0.03788100794072097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013283912406590609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028658118144712814, 0.0034722637230320567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007051949679527717, 0.038933237841415266, 0.0, 0.03183710757015731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2574836997023475, 0.244804515352966, 0.4169778219522576, 0.07080488473818264, 0.09516663388113575, 0.7176954455899016, 0.4746381674982078, 1.420149879507835, 1.9588230967869604, 14.39627849480732 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.586451334751146, "coverage": 0.999996873161622, "baseline_score": -1.8839916564442047, "spot_peer_score": 0.6968455592116655, "peer_archived_score": 19.586451334751146, "baseline_archived_score": -1.8839916564442047, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.6968455592116655 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688150430.310048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688150430.310048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.05332033209723275, 0.9466796679027673 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 570, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 24, 2023, OpenAI reported a 51-minute outage of ChatGPT (chat.openai.com) causing workers all over the world to grudgingly consider doing their jobs unassisted during that time. OpenAI has a [status page](https://status.openai.com/uptime?page=1) showing, for each calendar day, the number of hours that OpenAI's services were unavailable.\n\nFor chat.openai.com (the web interface, ChatGPT), the uptime has been published since Feburary, with Feburary at 98.28%, March at 99.39%, April at 99.96%, and 99.83% for May as of May 24, 2023.\n\nSoftware reliability is often measured in \"number of 9\"s, i.e. 90%, 99%, 99.9%, 99.99%, etc. To reach 99.9% uptime, a service must be down for no more than 43 minutes in a 30-day month.\n\nChatGPT reportedly was the software product that grew to 100 million users the fastest of any software product ever, and may struggle to handle the load. However, it would be reasonable to expect it to get more stable over time, and before the outage on May 24, was on track for May to reach 99.9%. What will happen in June?" }, { "id": 17260, "title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?", "short_title": "ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?", "url_title": "ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?", "slug": "chatgpt-available-in-europe-on-june-30-2024", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 101465, "username": "Jgalt" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-25T04:03:05.833158Z", "published_at": "2023-05-26T15:07:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.531208Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-26T15:07:21.139566Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T12:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T12:12:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T15:07:00Z", 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"description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17260, "title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-05-25T04:03:05.833158Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T15:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-26T21:32:26.435000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-26T21:32:26.435000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T12:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T12:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-12T12:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Reuters on May 24, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-may-leave-eu-if-regulations-bite-ceo-2023-05-24), \"OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Wednesday the ChatGPT maker might consider leaving Europe if it could not comply with the upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) regulations by the European Union.\"\n\nThe [EU AI Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) \"regulates the providers of artificial intelligence systems, and entities making use of them in a professional capacity.\" As of May 24, 2024, [Metaculus expects](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8787/passing-of-the-ai-act/) the AI Act to be passed between Oct 2023 and Nov 2024, with a median of April 2024, though OpenAI could choose to cease offering ChatGPT in Europe earlier than that, or for some other reason entirely.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **YES** if [ChatGPT](chat.openai.com) is generally available in the EU on June 30, 2024, and **NO** otherwise.\n\n\"Generally available\" here means that the default state for people in the EU is that they can access it without a VPN (possibly requiring paying for it.) If unavailable in certain EU countries (as was the case in Italy in early 2023), or unavailable to (for example) minors, this will still resolve positively, assuming at least >50% of the population can use it.\n\n\"ChatGPT\" here refers to the general web interface (not the API) for interacting with GPT models. Still resolves positively if the name or website has changed, as long as OpenAI's service is substantially the same (entering queries to systems based on Large Language Models).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17260, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719655201.700349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719655201.700349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9328438342654604 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.38355941453264414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.881525652236605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029243119319264654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719733003.2266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719733003.2266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.008242782185086561, 0.9917572178149134 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 294, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Reuters on May 24, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-may-leave-eu-if-regulations-bite-ceo-2023-05-24), \"OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Wednesday the ChatGPT maker might consider leaving Europe if it could not comply with the upcoming artificial intelligence (AI) regulations by the European Union.\"\n\nThe [EU AI Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) \"regulates the providers of artificial intelligence systems, and entities making use of them in a professional capacity.\" As of May 24, 2024, [Metaculus expects](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8787/passing-of-the-ai-act/) the AI Act to be passed between Oct 2023 and Nov 2024, with a median of April 2024, though OpenAI could choose to cease offering ChatGPT in Europe earlier than that, or for some other reason entirely." }, { "id": 17250, "title": "Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Linda Yaccarino CEO of Twitter?", "url_title": "Linda Yaccarino CEO of Twitter?", "slug": "linda-yaccarino-ceo-of-twitter", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-23T16:17:33.781909Z", 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"spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-28T15:44:57.023028Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-02T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Linda Yaccarino, the former advertising chief of NBCUniversal, has been [appointed as the CEO of Twitter](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/12/tech/twitter-ceo-linda-yaccarino/index.html) by Elon Musk, the owner of the platform. She's expected to [assume the role in late June, 2023](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1656748197308674048). The selection of Yaccarino indicates Musk's focus on Twitter's advertising business and his plans to revamp the social network into [X, the βeverything appβ](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/11/elon-musk-twitter-new-ceo). Yaccarino has a strong background in the advertising industry and is known for her influential role in Madison Avenue.\n\nAssuming the role of Twitter CEO, Yaccarino will face various challenges, including Twitter's struggles to expand its advertising business, gaps in expertise and technical glitches, and the company's substantial debt. Additionally, she will have to navigate the unpredictable nature of working with Musk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Linda Yaccarino is in the position of CEO at Twitter on July 1, 2024, according to official announcements from Twitter or credible media sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17250, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719655300.542388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.939 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719655300.542388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.939 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9553756504692784 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005675634729541413, 0.010717274662964819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007925084159090202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016130931261017813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012345684322673096, 0.014145727934610995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00786676606165154, 0.029367576745184032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.07317984826329925, 0.0, 0.009247748063936412, 0.0, 0.06663686154666806, 0.03469291395821098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04270855676134652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.131078667716023, 0.0, 0.04059264133585082, 0.054969296976803916, 0.0450032524825526, 0.026223454560143997, 0.0, 0.1376316604417457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3171093383541346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8584626815738725, 0.17290689620064964, 0.0960250916311845, 1.5356764516611898, 0.0, 0.353482848988943, 0.0, 2.225193465618142, 0.6809768999841327, 7.478858539827302 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.397654988168053, "coverage": 0.9999968800833168, "baseline_score": 51.94556564379195, "spot_peer_score": 1.7647903464993502, "peer_archived_score": 13.397654988168053, "baseline_archived_score": 51.94556564379195, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.7647903464993502 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719734154.829402, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719734154.829402, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.027441335804830325, 0.9725586641951697 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 234, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Linda Yaccarino, the former advertising chief of NBCUniversal, has been [appointed as the CEO of Twitter](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/12/tech/twitter-ceo-linda-yaccarino/index.html) by Elon Musk, the owner of the platform. She's expected to [assume the role in late June, 2023](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1656748197308674048). The selection of Yaccarino indicates Musk's focus on Twitter's advertising business and his plans to revamp the social network into [X, the βeverything appβ](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/11/elon-musk-twitter-new-ceo). Yaccarino has a strong background in the advertising industry and is known for her influential role in Madison Avenue.\n\nAssuming the role of Twitter CEO, Yaccarino will face various challenges, including Twitter's struggles to expand its advertising business, gaps in expertise and technical glitches, and the company's substantial debt. Additionally, she will have to navigate the unpredictable nature of working with Musk." }, { "id": 17247, "title": "Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?", "short_title": "15-inch Macbook Air at WWDC 2023", "url_title": "15-inch Macbook Air at WWDC 2023", "slug": "15-inch-macbook-air-at-wwdc-2023", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 132519, "username": "Anastasia" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-23T04:09:29.179342Z", "published_at": "2023-05-26T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.451720Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-26T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T17:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T17:04:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "π°Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament π°", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "π°Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament π°", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "π»", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17247, "title": "Will Apple release a 15-inch MacBook Air at WWDC on June 5-9, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-23T04:09:29.179342Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-27T12:18:00.272882Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-27T12:18:00.272882Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T17:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-05T17:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-05T17:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-05T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "WWDC is Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference. Each year they launch updates to Apple hardware and software.\n\nOn April 16, 2023, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-04-16/apple-wwdc-2023-june-5-plan-reality-headset-new-macs-watchos-10-ios-17-lgjfj5bf) \"Apple has several new models in the works: a 15-inch MacBook Air, an updated 13-inch MacBook Air, an entry-level 13-inch MacBook Pro, a refreshed 24-inch iMac, the first Mac Pro with in-house chips and updated high-end MacBook Pro models. All of these should go on sale either this year or in early 2024.\"\n\n[Macrumors reported](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/16/new-macbooks-at-wwdc-gurman/) the same day that \"15-inch MacBook Air rumors began in early 2021, and it appears the laptop is nearing release. Apple's suppliers have reportedly [ramped up production of 15-inch display panels](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/10/15-inch-macbook-air-component-production/) for the laptop, and the machine recently [surfaced in App Store developer logs](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/14/15-inch-macbook-air-m2-like-chip-logs/).\"\n\nSee the 13\" offerings on the [Apple store](https://www.apple.com/macbook-air/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple announces a 15 inch \"Macbook Air\" at WWDC from June 5-9, and **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "15 inch refers to the diagonal width. The exact dimensions do not matterβif the device is advertised as 15 inches, it qualifies.\n\nIt must be called a Macbook Air to resolve Yes. 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Each year they launch updates to Apple hardware and software.\n\nOn April 16, 2023, [Bloomberg reported](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-04-16/apple-wwdc-2023-june-5-plan-reality-headset-new-macs-watchos-10-ios-17-lgjfj5bf) \"Apple has several new models in the works: a 15-inch MacBook Air, an updated 13-inch MacBook Air, an entry-level 13-inch MacBook Pro, a refreshed 24-inch iMac, the first Mac Pro with in-house chips and updated high-end MacBook Pro models. All of these should go on sale either this year or in early 2024.\"\n\n[Macrumors reported](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/16/new-macbooks-at-wwdc-gurman/) the same day that \"15-inch MacBook Air rumors began in early 2021, and it appears the laptop is nearing release. Apple's suppliers have reportedly [ramped up production of 15-inch display panels](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/10/15-inch-macbook-air-component-production/) for the laptop, and the machine recently [surfaced in App Store developer logs](https://www.macrumors.com/2023/04/14/15-inch-macbook-air-m2-like-chip-logs/).\"\n\nSee the 13\" offerings on the [Apple store](https://www.apple.com/macbook-air/)." }, { "id": 17246, "title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?", "short_title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31?", "url_title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31?", "slug": "will-elizabeth-holmes-be-in-prison-on-may-31", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-22T18:07:46.300807Z", "published_at": "2023-05-26T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.361409Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-26T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-29T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-29T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "π°Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament π°", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "π°Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament π°", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17246, "title": "Will Elizabeth Holmes be in prison on May 31, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-22T18:07:46.300807Z", "open_time": "2023-05-26T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-27T17:06:58.743629Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-27T17:06:58.743629Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-29T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-29T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Elizabeth Holmes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Holmes) is the founder and former CEO of Theranos, a now-defunct health technology company. 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She has been ordered to [report to prison on May 30, 2023β](https://apnews.com/article/elizabeth-holmes-theranos-prison-reporting-date-9fd718cd012d49f68c654bad89abb0ed#:~:text=Elizabeth%20Holmes%20will%20start%2011,her%20bid%20to%20remain%20free) after losing her latest bid to remain free.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible media sources report that Elizabeth Holmes is in prison on May 31, 2023.", "fine_print": "If no sources report anything, it will be assumed that she reported to prison on time and will resolve **Yes**.", "post_id": 17246, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685348046.030876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685348046.030876, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06000000000000005, 0.94 ], "means": [ 0.8897771718122371 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5906970726489932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08708798480342782, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.467441165893762, 1.4427368339928914, 0.0, 0.495368724479614, 1.4204855194624733, 1.2564129678718277 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.792359118121, "coverage": 0.987524443023063, "baseline_score": 80.46433593218659, "spot_peer_score": 25.387286097249287, "peer_archived_score": 12.792359118121, "baseline_archived_score": 80.46433593218659, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.387286097249287 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685348046.042044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685348046.042044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.034106728872544845, 0.9658932711274552 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Elizabeth Holmes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Holmes) is the founder and former CEO of Theranos, a now-defunct health technology company. 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Polls show a tight race, with different pollsters showing different parties in the lead.\n\nIn this first-past-the-post election, no party outside these two is expected to win any seats, although [one UCP candidate](https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/danielle-smith-jennifer-johnson-anti-lgbtq-remarks) will not be allowed in the party caucus due to offensive remarks (although she remains on the ballot with her affiliation), creating a possibility that both major parties end up tied at 43 seats won.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, following the election, the [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news) election results page shows the UCP with more seats than any other party (with or without a majority).\n\nThe page will be checked on June 5, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17241, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685417994.686114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685417994.686114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7139562540385725 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42783572693442795, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -2.248911460444505, "coverage": 0.9991729250242349, "baseline_score": 37.40371096113983, "spot_peer_score": -4.851334559049, "peer_archived_score": -2.248911460444505, "baseline_archived_score": 37.40371096113983, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.851334559049 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685417994.70247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685417994.70247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.12118437318590936, 0.8788156268140906 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[General elections for Alberta's Legislative Assembly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Alberta_general_election) will be held on May 29th. The incumbent United Conservative Party under Danielle Smith will be seeking their second term, while their main challengers are the New Democratic Party under Rachel Notley, who held government between 2015 and 2019. Polls show a tight race, with different pollsters showing different parties in the lead.\n\nIn this first-past-the-post election, no party outside these two is expected to win any seats, although [one UCP candidate](https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/danielle-smith-jennifer-johnson-anti-lgbtq-remarks) will not be allowed in the party caucus due to offensive remarks (although she remains on the ballot with her affiliation), creating a possibility that both major parties end up tied at 43 seats won." }, { "id": 17202, "title": "Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?", "short_title": "NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?", "url_title": "NVIDIA stock below $250 before 31 Dec 2024?", "slug": "nvidia-stock-below-250-before-31-dec-2024", "author_id": 143690, "author_username": "kepe95", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-21T09:11:22.871609Z", "published_at": "2023-05-27T20:52:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.061631Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-27T20:52:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T03:33:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-27T20:52:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "π€", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "πΌ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "π€", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17202, "title": "Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-21T09:11:22.871609Z", "open_time": "2023-05-27T20:52:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-28T13:07:26.669000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-28T13:07:26.669000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T03:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T03:39:15.745932Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The closing stock price of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) on 25th of May 2023 was [379.80 USD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history?period1=1653523200&period2=1685059200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true). \n\nThis is a significant increase from the lows in October 2022 of $108.13. Furthermore PE and sales multiples are [historically very high](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjWsbvPg4b_AhVyx4sKHUkyC-MQ3ecFegQIOhAh&window=1Y).\n\nMarket Commentators [have expressed concern](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-buyer-beware-comes-ai-103035210.html) that NVIDIA is overvalued and in a bubble as part of the excitement related to AI technology.\n\nThis question asks specifically about reaching a specific lower price in the near future to assess the probability of short position on NVIDIA. This probability is especially interesting as it can be compared to probabilities on the open market involving monetary commitments.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point after May 26, 2023, and before January 1, 2025, the stock of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) trades below $250 for a full day, as confirmed by either [Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi6wdiT7ZP_AhWrtYkEHRSqAeoQ3ecFegQILhAh) or [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/) data. The question resolves as **No** if the stock did not trade below $250 for a full day after May 26, 2023 and before January 1, 2025. \n\nAdjustments will be made in case of a stock split, merger, or other change to the ticker or company to continue to use an equivalent measure. Metaculus may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** in the event that a clear adjustment cannot be easily made, including but not limited to the example of a bigger company buying NVIDIA resulting in no longer being able to determine the price of NVIDIA.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17202, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735523871.847748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735523871.847748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0062028635839314 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.189707848880078, 3.259307405954088, 0.21019410301764746, 0.027414264600835975, 0.32781565873588886, 0.059234032280852854, 0.008522131514278471, 0.0, 0.09722222970319579, 0.0, 0.06562619069267198, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007535015292961775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005078988548449663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0016664196904290613, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.0027719772151930493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019450976330104752, 0.004409064241487278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038045040913139735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002334944183173679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 74.69318239119065, "peer_score": 14.064313024028296, "coverage": 0.9999935078454333, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999935078454333, "spot_peer_score": 28.98566618125009, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 74.69318239119065, "peer_archived_score": 14.064313024028296, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.98566618125009, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289410.361173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289410.361173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 255, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The closing stock price of NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) on 25th of May 2023 was [379.80 USD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history?period1=1653523200&period2=1685059200&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=true). \n\nThis is a significant increase from the lows in October 2022 of $108.13. Furthermore PE and sales multiples are [historically very high](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjWsbvPg4b_AhVyx4sKHUkyC-MQ3ecFegQIOhAh&window=1Y).\n\nMarket Commentators [have expressed concern](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-buyer-beware-comes-ai-103035210.html) that NVIDIA is overvalued and in a bubble as part of the excitement related to AI technology.\n\nThis question asks specifically about reaching a specific lower price in the near future to assess the probability of short position on NVIDIA. This probability is especially interesting as it can be compared to probabilities on the open market involving monetary commitments." }, { "id": 17180, "title": "Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a \"deepfake\" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?", "short_title": "Deepfake costs election before 2025", "url_title": "Deepfake costs election before 2025", "slug": "deepfake-costs-election-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:53.374284Z", "published_at": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.051472Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T00:33:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 189, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "π€", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "π", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "π€", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T05:20:47.694025Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T05:20:47.694025Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17180, "title": "Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a \"deepfake\" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:53.374284Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-24T01:55:01.534689Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-24T01:55:01.534689Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T00:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T00:40:41.202139Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "\"Deepfakes\" or \"Deep fakes\" are synthetic media created with generative AI that imitate real media, but have people saying or doing things they did not actually do. This can be in the form of a static image, a short video, or an audio recording with no video.\n\nIn May 2022, a deepfake video of Elon Musk promoting a scam cryptocurrency went viral on social media, to which Elon [replied on Twitter \"Yikes. Def not me.\"](https://decrypt.co/101365/deepfake-video-elon-musk-crypto-scam-goes-viral). In June 2022, [Google banned deepfake-generate AI from its Colab tool](https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/01/2328459/?guccounter=1). In May 2023, a deepfake image showed an explosion at the US Pentagon, which was picked up by media and caused a [temporary huge drop in stock markets](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/s-p-sheds-500-billion-from-fake-pentagon-explosion).\n\nAs of May 2023, no major political scandal has erupted due to a particular deepfake successfully convincing a large block of voters that a politician did or said something they didn't actually do.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2024, a politician in an election with >3M votes cast in a [G20 country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20) claims that they lost an election due to a deepfake video, image, or audio recording of them.", "fine_print": "* \"Claim they lost\" will be interpreted broadly - the politician need not say it was solely responsible, but they must make a big deal out of it according to Metaculus admins.\n\n* Standard text-based propaganda does not count as a \"deepfake\". So for example, claims about misinformation in the 2016 US Presidential election would not qualify for this question.", "post_id": 17180, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654754.85415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654754.85415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.056702053446948016 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.16795870001679, 5.795014196586224, 2.070558912163696, 0.8041737547554527, 0.8132663447509948, 2.2964838561708545, 0.0005044550597752829, 0.46067163672590106, 0.0, 0.011617416622903743, 0.23866350066118716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1455181865506139, 0.46547225199451675, 0.04761304415374139, 0.22107146237276495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41436950116912036, 0.13944368925648012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49199221522837255, 0.0, 0.03407592382697639, 0.08630893337855262, 0.0, 0.03858626659444644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02535461964128627, 0.0, 0.0021875788472901503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1124025069325061, 0.10859160353355897, 0.0, 0.01869620687987974, 0.0, 0.05016344191106453, 0.00012535277803824257, 0.06771832080108725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06528362491260288, 0.028007319484293736, 0.0, 0.0, 4.734754082427822e-06, 0.08661554815731944, 0.0, 0.00017083808332495824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0384374183313015, 0.0, 6.5062746000129215e-06, 0.0, 0.002838315163133384, 0.023419723244791586, 0.0006424387921683177, 0.0, 0.0, 1.947522902299023e-05, 0.0010926605002768896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07838624724699754, 0.0, 0.0026888322560428804, 4.2362667981106245e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035970306560069356, 0.027076562673422525, 0.0, 0.0018893657655834435, 0.05084377025823617, 0.0, 0.03134959843450191, 4.8539291964921644e-05, 0.10612309582462236, 0.0004270051226036597, 0.0, 0.016038267187894584, 0.004662653985115779, 0.0, 8.505527334334535e-06, 0.0, 0.14200028825980837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015549731438177125 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -51.67052106562597, "peer_score": 29.64624288433172, "coverage": 0.9999840646113978, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999840646113978, "spot_peer_score": -2.9457965349338098, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -51.67052106562597, "peer_archived_score": 29.64624288433172, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.9457965349338098, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288488.199056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 181, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288488.199056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 181, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9511382632903832, 0.04886173670961678 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 643, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "\"Deepfakes\" or \"Deep fakes\" are synthetic media created with generative AI that imitate real media, but have people saying or doing things they did not actually do. This can be in the form of a static image, a short video, or an audio recording with no video.\n\nIn May 2022, a deepfake video of Elon Musk promoting a scam cryptocurrency went viral on social media, to which Elon [replied on Twitter \"Yikes. Def not me.\"](https://decrypt.co/101365/deepfake-video-elon-musk-crypto-scam-goes-viral). In June 2022, [Google banned deepfake-generate AI from its Colab tool](https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/01/2328459/?guccounter=1). In May 2023, a deepfake image showed an explosion at the US Pentagon, which was picked up by media and caused a [temporary huge drop in stock markets](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/s-p-sheds-500-billion-from-fake-pentagon-explosion).\n\nAs of May 2023, no major political scandal has erupted due to a particular deepfake successfully convincing a large block of voters that a politician did or said something they didn't actually do." }, { "id": 17179, "title": "Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "short_title": "Infrastructure disaster from AI before 2025", "url_title": "Infrastructure disaster from AI before 2025", "slug": "infrastructure-disaster-from-ai-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:46.451084Z", "published_at": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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"header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T05:20:47.694025Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "π€", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "π»", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17179, "title": "Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:46.451084Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-25T07:36:55.020981Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-25T07:36:55.020981Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T21:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-15T21:17:16.717083Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As more of the world's infrastructure has major digital components, cyberattacks have the potential to become more common and lead to bigger disasters. None, however, have been directly attributed to AI systems. Non-AI cyberattacks on infrastructure include:\n\n* In May 2021, a [ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack) caused widespread fuel shortages in the eastern United States. The attack, which was carried out by a group called DarkSide, forced Colonial Pipeline to shut down its operations for several days.\n\n* In August 2022, a ransomware attack took down [many different parts of England's National Health Service](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/11/nhs-ransomware-attack-what-happened-and-how-bad-is-it) that led to system outages for several weeks.\n\n* In Oct 2022, a DDOS attack [took down several US airline websites](https://purplesec.us/security-insights/killnet-ddos-airport-websites/), and was attributed to Killnet, a pro-Russian hacker group.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, cybersecurity experts publicly attribute a cyberattack on infrastructure causing at least $1B in damages in a [G20 country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20) to an AI-based system, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nThe attribution to an AI-based system must be one of (a) AI autonomously triggering the attack; or (b) Humans asking an agentic AI system to attack (e.g. HackGPT), or (c) the attack results from AI conducting mass high-quality social engineering.\n\nSince the full details are unlikely to be revealed, it is sufficient that (a), (b), or (c) above is deemed the most likely cause of the attack by security experts who investigate.", "fine_print": "* \"infrastructure\" will be interpreted broadly, like the examples in the background info. The targets may be private entities if the damage is felt by the public, as with attacks on energy, food, and hospital systems.\n\n* Monetary damage of the attack will be inferred from general media. If unclear, admins will take the single most authoritative news source on the attack to determine the $ amount.", "post_id": 17179, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654753.388615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654753.388615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.025825342840883628 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.308493602495505, 4.184790522353795, 0.2208345820490045, 0.5102750961633419, 0.45024379078057575, 0.2829540424691277, 0.0, 0.014128607803813408, 0.11083301965526829, 0.05140159403448454, 0.001092466646874047, 0.14749563312177918, 0.6013122581900763, 0.02547085730884873, 0.0, 0.2710752998139798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01732880491444991, 0.0, 0.0027731056526689246, 0.0056145053338992595, 0.07618090488681187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015663757846189213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13747443227290793, 0.0, 0.045527996643579115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07049165811994734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003878713961381149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06018168915842613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 95.11707008374957, "peer_score": 13.25008959571094, "coverage": 0.9999843643667625, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999843643667625, "spot_peer_score": 23.395661114902747, "spot_baseline_score": 78.24085649273731, "baseline_archived_score": 95.11707008374957, "peer_archived_score": 13.25008959571094, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.395661114902747, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.24085649273731 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289081.018343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289081.018343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991308710825855, 0.0008691289174145499 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As more of the world's infrastructure has major digital components, cyberattacks have the potential to become more common and lead to bigger disasters. None, however, have been directly attributed to AI systems. Non-AI cyberattacks on infrastructure include:\n\n* In May 2021, a [ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_Pipeline_ransomware_attack) caused widespread fuel shortages in the eastern United States. The attack, which was carried out by a group called DarkSide, forced Colonial Pipeline to shut down its operations for several days.\n\n* In August 2022, a ransomware attack took down [many different parts of England's National Health Service](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/11/nhs-ransomware-attack-what-happened-and-how-bad-is-it) that led to system outages for several weeks.\n\n* In Oct 2022, a DDOS attack [took down several US airline websites](https://purplesec.us/security-insights/killnet-ddos-airport-websites/), and was attributed to Killnet, a pro-Russian hacker group." } ] }
