Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3260
{ "count": 5980, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3280", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3240", "results": [ { "id": 17178, "title": "Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "short_title": "IP theft from AI before 2025", "url_title": "IP theft from AI before 2025", "slug": "ip-theft-from-ai-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:44.669572Z", "published_at": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.026059Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T21:17:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T05:20:47.694025Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T05:20:47.694025Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17178, "title": "Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:44.669572Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-25T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-25T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T21:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-15T21:19:24.702744Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In January 2023, a report by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) found that the theft of IP (intellectual property) is a growing problem. The report found that the value of stolen IP is estimated to be between $2 trillion and $6 trillion per year. None, however, have been attributed to AI systems that probe for weaknesses. Recent high-profile examples of non-AI-based theft of IP include:\n\nIn 2022, a [Chinese national was arrested in the United States](https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/former-glaxosmithkline-scientist-pleads-guilty-stealing-trade-secrets-benefit-chinese) for stealing trade secrets from GSK.\n\nIn January 2023, Riot Games, the developer of well-known video games League of Legends and Valorant, [said that hackers recently stole the source code](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/riot-games-league-of-legends-source-code-cyberattack) for some of its most popular games in a recent breach.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, cybersecurity experts publicly attributes IP theft of value at least $10M in to an AI-based system, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nThe attribution to an AI-based system must be one of (a) AI autonomously triggering the theft; or (b) Humans asking an agentic AI system to hack and steal IP (e.g. HackGPT), or (c) the theft results from AI conducting mass high-quality social engineering.\n\nSince the full details are unlikely to be revealed, it is sufficient that (a), (b), or (c) above is deemed the most likely cause of the attack by security experts who investigate.", "fine_print": "* Monetary value of the IP will be inferred from general media. If unclear, admins will take the single most authoritative news source on the attack to determine the $ amount. If not specified, admins will infer the value is >$10M if they infer the hack is major, as was the case in with the Riot games theft in the background info.", "post_id": 17178, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671309.519816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671309.519816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.060980679103640266 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.418351066788656, 2.754209042825315, 1.7349369181882208, 0.7564943841436664, 0.22519494629653822, 0.4793531485480562, 0.6085387539781595, 0.0, 0.2812858676324347, 0.0, 0.8499419657507199, 0.0, 0.023164381480015078, 0.0034322177175539247, 0.0, 0.420915453771765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06248450754159178, 0.02897092002998519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002772598180409281, 0.239787734158169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020621981324100598, 0.08482337249261131, 0.004176477489548196, 0.00946706080046129, 0.0, 0.005951937961528494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09259910912117526, 0.016179044804938477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05886339947918327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12689611276213936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04397920349508898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06685546638137661, 0.0, 0.1806647763176795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13551986980901504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028938014188489144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014249192245099284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.96461862636256, "peer_score": 20.264147743556908, "coverage": 0.999985999888508, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999985999888508, "spot_peer_score": 31.717140016873834, "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "baseline_archived_score": 63.96461862636256, "peer_archived_score": 20.264147743556908, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.717140016873834, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289472.802575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289472.802575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9834905829192782, 0.016509417080721896 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In January 2023, a report by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) found that the theft of IP (intellectual property) is a growing problem. The report found that the value of stolen IP is estimated to be between $2 trillion and $6 trillion per year. None, however, have been attributed to AI systems that probe for weaknesses. Recent high-profile examples of non-AI-based theft of IP include:\n\nIn 2022, a [Chinese national was arrested in the United States](https://www.justice.gov/usao-edpa/pr/former-glaxosmithkline-scientist-pleads-guilty-stealing-trade-secrets-benefit-chinese) for stealing trade secrets from GSK.\n\nIn January 2023, Riot Games, the developer of well-known video games League of Legends and Valorant, [said that hackers recently stole the source code](https://www.axios.com/2023/01/24/riot-games-league-of-legends-source-code-cyberattack) for some of its most popular games in a recent breach." }, { "id": 17177, "title": "Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?", "short_title": "Election hack before 2025", "url_title": "Election hack before 2025", "slug": "election-hack-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": 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false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17177, "title": "Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:42.767434Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-25T03:09:55.227373Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-25T03:09:55.227373Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T00:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T00:32:49.436070Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Attacks on voting machines are becoming more common. In Dec 2022, the Brennan Center for Justice wrote that \"In 2016, Russian hackers targeted election systems in all 50 states. No votes were actually changed, but the hackers penetrated at least Illinois’s database deeply enough to have the ability to delete or change voter data. Few election officials even noticed the digital incursions.\n\nIt couldn’t have been a particularly difficult mission for Russia’s army of hackers: Many U.S. voting machines were more than a decade old. Some were so outdated that officials had to buy spare parts on eBay. A few were running Windows 2000.\" In April 2023, it called for funding from DHS, CISA, EAC, and the FBI to direct more resources to combat these threats.\n\nEuropean countries have also expressed concerns, with the European Union Agency for Network and Information Security (ENISA) stating that \"Core electoral\nsystems are being targeted by digital communities, institutions, and actors.\" ([pdf](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-foresight-cybersecurity-threats-for-2030/@@download/fullReport).\n\nAs of May 2023, no major attacks on voting systems have been directly attributable to AI.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, cybersecurity experts publicly attribute a successful attack on election infrastructure in a [G20 country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20) to an AI-based system, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nThe attribution to an AI-based system must be one of (a) AI autonomously triggering the attack; or (b) Humans asking an agentic AI system to attack (e.g. HackGPT), or (c) the attack results from AI conducting mass high-quality social engineering on people responsible for election systems.\n\nAny successful attack qualifies, regardless of how many votes or voting machines were compromised, but the target must be the *actual process of collecting or counting votes*, not information about voting (such as a DDOS attack against a government website with voting information), or general disinformation campaigns.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17177, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654745.81633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.011 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654745.81633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.011 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.02862661350944254 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.128447887697973, 3.05434874178439, 0.9761496436011955, 0.46835103032029635, 0.0, 0.11329455582881533, 0.018876485630930608, 0.28821298216570146, 0.7350209308242119, 0.0, 0.35063777899947274, 0.010703886146113043, 0.05416656778952044, 0.014242554722086555, 0.0, 0.06927105776320215, 0.023907745985262838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028060324433643096, 0.0, 0.0344326025214608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0948822910012301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21196125406736083, 0.016946764592253687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006379262637396644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04145990502278528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07596432114486756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01181680794931113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023254082934554995 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.57189105784451, "peer_score": 25.614668232269686, "coverage": 0.9999887589357306, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999887589357306, "spot_peer_score": 1.644007010641943, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 89.57189105784451, "peer_archived_score": 25.614668232269686, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.644007010641943, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288103.280236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288103.280236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993943736527301, 0.0006056263472698992 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 131, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Attacks on voting machines are becoming more common. In Dec 2022, the Brennan Center for Justice wrote that \"In 2016, Russian hackers targeted election systems in all 50 states. No votes were actually changed, but the hackers penetrated at least Illinois’s database deeply enough to have the ability to delete or change voter data. Few election officials even noticed the digital incursions.\n\nIt couldn’t have been a particularly difficult mission for Russia’s army of hackers: Many U.S. voting machines were more than a decade old. Some were so outdated that officials had to buy spare parts on eBay. A few were running Windows 2000.\" In April 2023, it called for funding from DHS, CISA, EAC, and the FBI to direct more resources to combat these threats.\n\nEuropean countries have also expressed concerns, with the European Union Agency for Network and Information Security (ENISA) stating that \"Core electoral\nsystems are being targeted by digital communities, institutions, and actors.\" ([pdf](https://www.enisa.europa.eu/publications/enisa-foresight-cybersecurity-threats-for-2030/@@download/fullReport).\n\nAs of May 2023, no major attacks on voting systems have been directly attributable to AI." }, { "id": 17176, "title": "Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?", "short_title": "AI takes down stock exchange before 2025", "url_title": "AI takes down stock exchange before 2025", "slug": "ai-takes-down-stock-exchange-before-2025", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": 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stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-18T23:39:39.755972Z", "open_time": "2023-05-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-24T10:15:38.059050Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-24T10:15:38.059050Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T00:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T00:28:59.731603Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Erratic trading in stock markets like the NYSE, NASDAQ, and LSE is an increasing problem, though as of May 2023, not directly due to AI, though perhaps due to high-frequency trading (HFT).\n\nExamples of Flash Crashes were the [2010 drop of 1,000 points in the DOW for disputed reasons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_flash_crash) and the [2022 European stock flash crash due to human error](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_crash#Flash_Crash_of_European_Stock_Markets_on_May_2,_2022).\n\nIn May 2023, a deepfake image showed an explosion at the US Pentagon, which was picked up by media and caused a [temporary huge drop in stock markets](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/s-p-sheds-500-billion-from-fake-pentagon-explosion).\n\nIn all of these cases, prices recovered quickly and no exchanges were halted.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, before Dec 31, 2024, mainstream news attributes a major stock exchange halting trading for >24 hours due to AI, and **NO** otherwise.\n\n\"Due to AI\" means the exchange is said to have halted trading due to either:\n\n* Due to AI trading, such as high-frequency trading gone haywire, or\n* Due to erratic human trading caused by AI-created misinformation, such as deepfakes", "fine_print": "* \"Major stock exchange\" is defined as a [top 10 exchange by monthly trading volume](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_exchanges), including NYSE, NASDAQ, LSE, and a major exchange in each of China, India, South Korea, and Hong Kong.", "post_id": 17176, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671302.541618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671302.541618, 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17174, "title": "Will the Palme d'Or, the top prize at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival, be awarded to a film from a European country?", "created_at": "2023-05-18T21:26:48.607867Z", "open_time": "2023-05-19T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-21T00:28:54.984525Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-21T00:28:54.984525Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-27T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-27T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-26T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-26T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Palme d'Or](https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/the-festival/the-palme-d-or/) is the most prestigious award presented at the Cannes Film Festival, an internationally renowned film festival held annually in Cannes, France. First introduced in 1955, the Palme d'Or is awarded to the film judged to be the best among the official selection of feature films in competition. The [winner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palme_d%27Or) is selected by a jury composed of esteemed members of the film industry, including filmmakers, actors, and other industry professionals.\n\nThe Palme d'Or represents a significant achievement and recognition for the winning film, elevating its status and often boosting its global recognition and distribution opportunities. Over the years, the award has been bestowed upon remarkable films from various countries, showcasing the diverse talent and creativity in the international film landscape.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved based on the official announcement of the Palme d'Or winner at the 2023 Cannes Film Festival. If the film awarded the Palme d'Or is originates from a European country the question will resolve **yes**.\n\nEuropean countries are the ones on [this list](https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/europe/) as defined by the CIA.", "fine_print": "- If there are multiple countries of origin listed for the film, the question with resolve **yes** if half or more of the countries are in Europe.\n- The country/countries of origin will be determined from the Cannes official listing for the film. See [here](https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/f/triangle-of-sadness/) for a sample of last year's winner, from Sweden.", "post_id": 17174, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685114506.937906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685114506.937906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6415818199882881 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2842560033288368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016810815496895358, 0.025302524918872856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00741623973729105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35881353004036015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5845712422689433, 0.24510547290006113, 0.7126735024003407, 0.07059083564021496, 0.0, 0.002164380995132114, 0.01936509307245438, 0.0, 0.1792663589359841, 0.2936757196039515, 1.9395326202148029, 0.20145619470265194, 1.0888306713123392, 0.5419910034102126, 0.0, 0.7286168205455135, 0.9530031133170577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5924193140262198, 1.2549549140597982, 0.2516489300959054, 0.0105689540850258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1561835500492839, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2970850533904107, 0.012431064033118435, 0.46416998254747094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4994839393471079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228311751426085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5950776742748636 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.285313417479795, "coverage": 0.9854618025496205, "baseline_score": 44.02807728216319, "spot_peer_score": 1.4888856433987736, "peer_archived_score": 8.285313417479795, "baseline_archived_score": 44.02807728216319, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.4888856433987736 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685114506.951315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685114506.951315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.40883264439514955, 0.5911673556048505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Palme d'Or](https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/the-festival/the-palme-d-or/) is the most prestigious award presented at the Cannes Film Festival, an internationally renowned film festival held annually in Cannes, France. First introduced in 1955, the Palme d'Or is awarded to the film judged to be the best among the official selection of feature films in competition. The [winner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palme_d%27Or) is selected by a jury composed of esteemed members of the film industry, including filmmakers, actors, and other industry professionals.\n\nThe Palme d'Or represents a significant achievement and recognition for the winning film, elevating its status and often boosting its global recognition and distribution opportunities. Over the years, the award has been bestowed upon remarkable films from various countries, showcasing the diverse talent and creativity in the international film landscape." }, { "id": 17114, "title": "Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Limjaroenrat confirmed as Prime Minister?", "url_title": "Limjaroenrat confirmed as Prime Minister?", "slug": "limjaroenrat-confirmed-as-prime-minister", "author_id": 118183, "author_username": "polarbear", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-16T21:26:40.167512Z", "published_at": "2023-05-28T02:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.505629Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-28T02:34:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-28T02:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17114, "title": "Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-16T21:26:40.167512Z", "open_time": "2023-05-28T02:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-30T02:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-30T02:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Thailand held an [election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16728/seats-won-by-opposition-parties/) on May 14th, 2023. The [result](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/old-rivalries-new-battle-thailand-goes-polls-2023-05-13/) shocked pollsters and political pundits alike — the Move Forward Party (MFP) came in first, with 152 out of 500 Member of Parliament (MP) seats. Other parties won the following seats (ranked from highest to lowest):\n\n- Pheu Thai Party: 141\n- Bhumjaithai Party: 70\n- Palang Pracharat Party: 41\n- United Thai Nation Party: 36\n- Democrat Party: 24\n- Chart Thai Pattana Party: 10\n- Prachachat Party: 9\n- Thai Sang Thai: 6\n- Others: 11\n\nHowever, a prime minister candidate is confirmed only if they receive at least 376 votes (i.e., more than half of the 500 MP and 250 senators combined). As of May 16th, 2023, the MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat has expressed its intention to form a coalition government with Pheu Thai and other smaller parties, garnering 309 votes. [Bangkok Post](https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2571327/ball-now-in-senates-court).\n\nMoreover, the Pheu Thai party has agreed to the above plan and declared it would not compete with the MFP to form a government [Nikkei Asia](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Thai-election/Thailand-s-Move-Forward-to-form-coalition-with-Pheu-Thai).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** based on reputable reports that Pita Limjaroenra has been confirmed as the prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17114, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688109864.982887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688109864.982887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.010416030517590954 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.360027548279625, 5.0930677506102855, 0.005091871219889384, 0.1223794468516071, 0.013841141009878904, 0.06433482000186017, 0.011658931217893395, 0.0, 0.08622018805400586, 0.033136279379270196, 0.007981569988183952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2153378168622927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04795610324820406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001873194738889857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.149046033603128, "coverage": 0.9997645378350428, "baseline_score": 74.38718341479144, "spot_peer_score": 38.4605809777198, "peer_archived_score": 16.149046033603128, "baseline_archived_score": 74.38718341479144, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.4605809777198 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688110677.546282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688110677.546282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 215, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Thailand held an [election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16728/seats-won-by-opposition-parties/) on May 14th, 2023. The [result](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/old-rivalries-new-battle-thailand-goes-polls-2023-05-13/) shocked pollsters and political pundits alike — the Move Forward Party (MFP) came in first, with 152 out of 500 Member of Parliament (MP) seats. Other parties won the following seats (ranked from highest to lowest):\n\n- Pheu Thai Party: 141\n- Bhumjaithai Party: 70\n- Palang Pracharat Party: 41\n- United Thai Nation Party: 36\n- Democrat Party: 24\n- Chart Thai Pattana Party: 10\n- Prachachat Party: 9\n- Thai Sang Thai: 6\n- Others: 11\n\nHowever, a prime minister candidate is confirmed only if they receive at least 376 votes (i.e., more than half of the 500 MP and 250 senators combined). As of May 16th, 2023, the MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat has expressed its intention to form a coalition government with Pheu Thai and other smaller parties, garnering 309 votes. [Bangkok Post](https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/2571327/ball-now-in-senates-court).\n\nMoreover, the Pheu Thai party has agreed to the above plan and declared it would not compete with the MFP to form a government [Nikkei Asia](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Thai-election/Thailand-s-Move-Forward-to-form-coalition-with-Pheu-Thai)." }, { "id": 17112, "title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?", "short_title": "Cybersecurity Laws for Powerful AI by 2030?", "url_title": "Cybersecurity Laws for Powerful AI by 2030?", "slug": "cybersecurity-laws-for-powerful-ai-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119604, "username": "Lawrence" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-16T16:14:37.087995Z", "published_at": "2023-06-02T16:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:01:37.941736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-06-02T16:45:00Z", "comment_count": 0, 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"is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17112, "title": "Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-05-16T16:14:37.087995Z", "open_time": "2023-06-02T16:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-03T10:22:50.694162Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-03T10:22:50.694162Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.\n\nOne way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”) policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by 2030, there is a federal law which requires all U.S. actors in possession of AI models fitting certain criteria to take measures to secure those models. The law must be designed to promote security of _powerful_ models, rather than, for example, models that might compromise individuals' privacy if stolen. If necessary, this will be decided by a judging panel made up of the Metaculus AI Forecasting team, or, failing that (e.g., because the AI Forecasting team no longer exists), at least 3 Metaculus admins: the judging panel would consider the stated intent of those who proposed the initial version of the bill.", "fine_print": "There may well be overlap between the most powerful models and the models that most compromise privacy. For this question’s resolution, what matters is whether the law is _intended_ to secure _powerful_ models.", "post_id": 17112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758468627.903361, "end_time": 1758947280.029509, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758468627.903361, "end_time": 1758947280.029509, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8154282434651595 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8481937731318165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6729179196123644, 0.0, 1.981285062211119, 0.0, 1.0882453487050852, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 1.1637108021501166, 0.5300417658031267, 0.2294539435535619, 0.028664445367929763, 0.06934409839582649, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.8927008346481565 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287660.461093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287660.461093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.18224851983055868, 0.8177514801694413 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.\n\nOne way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”) policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default." }, { "id": 17110, "title": "Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?", "short_title": "US or CA license to train AI before 2026", "url_title": "US or CA license to train AI before 2026", "slug": "us-or-ca-license-to-train-ai-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-16T14:55:20.668625Z", "published_at": "2023-05-17T15:18:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:26:01.937579Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-17T15:18:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:18:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17110, "title": "Will the US or California require licenses to train large AI models before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-16T14:55:20.668625Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:18:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-19T15:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-19T15:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not require any license or permit before training large AI models. One way US policymakers may address risks from AI is to require those who train large models to first apply for a license, as Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, [called for](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-chief-goes-before-us-congress-propose-licenses-building-ai-2023-05-16/) in DC on May 16, 2023. Reuters also reported an OpenAI staffer [calling for a licensing agency for AI](https://www.reuters.com/technology/washington-is-determined-govern-ai-how-2023-05-15/).\n\nMany similar regimes exist in US law - for example, licenses to drive cars or fly planes, or permits to construct buildings in various places. Many are at the state level - since most all Frontier AI labs are headquartered in California, and California generally regulates these things more than other states, this question considers state licensing as well.\n\nA list of large AI training runs and who did them can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0), this could be a rough list of who would require a license.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2025, the US or California government requires a license or permit of some type to do large training runs of AIs, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "This question will be interpreted broadly. There are many types of licenses and permits, and most would qualify, regardless of the requirements stipulated to get such licenses or permits, as long as they apply generally to training large AI systems in either all of the US or in California.\n\n\"Large training runs\" here can be measured in various ways, and will be interpreted broadly. If measured in FLOPs, then admins will define large as at least 10% the estimated FLOPs used by OpenAI to train GPT-4, 2.1 * 10^25.", "post_id": 17110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758458231.274016, "end_time": 1758734654.064791, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758458231.274016, "end_time": 1758734654.064791, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.04029011572865011 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3830612064146788, 2.1277686158269056, 0.0, 1.2986311085618147, 1.1208560593473438, 1.2255416380613606, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.200883377820648, 0.02246421852694655, 0.19523450305981643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21270013176675298, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290122.43726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290122.43726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9815957006954673, 0.018404299304532683 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 149, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not require any license or permit before training large AI models. One way US policymakers may address risks from AI is to require those who train large models to first apply for a license, as Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, [called for](https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-chief-goes-before-us-congress-propose-licenses-building-ai-2023-05-16/) in DC on May 16, 2023. Reuters also reported an OpenAI staffer [calling for a licensing agency for AI](https://www.reuters.com/technology/washington-is-determined-govern-ai-how-2023-05-15/).\n\nMany similar regimes exist in US law - for example, licenses to drive cars or fly planes, or permits to construct buildings in various places. Many are at the state level - since most all Frontier AI labs are headquartered in California, and California generally regulates these things more than other states, this question considers state licensing as well.\n\nA list of large AI training runs and who did them can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0), this could be a rough list of who would require a license." }, { "id": 17104, "title": "Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2026?", "short_title": "3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?", "url_title": "3 AI labs constrain capabilities before 2026?", "slug": "3-ai-labs-constrain-capabilities-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-14T18:55:34.273231Z", 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"As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\n\"3 Frontier Labs\" here means that, at the time of the statement, at least 3 signatories are Frontier Labs according to the definition in the resolution criteria.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if by Dec 31 2025, three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities, and **NO** otherwise.\n\nWe define a \"Frontier AI Lab\" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, which as of April 2023 is GPT-4. For example, as of April 2023, a frontier AI lab would be one which has trained a model with more than 2e24 FLOPs. However, this threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nCompute levels will be established either per credible media reporting or reporting from a credible research institution such as [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) using a best guess point estimate.", "fine_print": "* A \"joint statement\" refers to a document that is explicitly authored or endorsed by each party. A technical paper does not qualify.\n\n* \"committing to constrain their AI's capabilities\" will be interpreted narrowly. For example, a commitment to prevent certain types of restricted speech, or a commitment to always do Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback, will not qualify. 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US Presidential debates, however, generally focus on a set of more narrowly framed societal issues. For example, the [2020 debates between Biden and Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_debates) had segments on each of \"fighting COVID-19, American families, race in America, climate change, national security, and leadership\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if both Democratic and Republican candidates say at least 2 sentences largely about AI during the official 2024 Presidential debates, and otherwise resolve as **NO**.", "fine_print": "The discussion of AI must be about it being relevant for American policy. For example, discussing AI in the context of job loss, misinformation campaigns, schooling, or American competitiveness qualifies; discussing using ChatGPT to tell a joke does not. 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It is not sufficient if software produced by Microsoft or OpenAI cannot be exported to certain countries for other reasons - such as export bans on all software, or on all commercial products sold to certain countries.\n\nThese need to be actual export controls, as per the 2022 controls on semiconductors. 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As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.\n\nAs the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI." }, { "id": 17100, "title": "Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?", "short_title": "US API restrictions on AI before 2026", "url_title": "US API restrictions on AI before 2026", "slug": "us-api-restrictions-on-ai-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-14T17:50:05.367248Z", "published_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:26:22.034717Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 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false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17100, "title": "Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-14T17:50:05.367248Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-18T14:21:43.450675Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-18T14:21:43.450675Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not restrict API or browser access to any Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 (ChatGPT) or Google Bard. As the capabilities of such systems grow, and users learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to enrich uranium or create Deep Fakes), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to restrict usage to those that are verified to be in the US.\n\nA similar regime exists for Digital Rights Management for music & movies - access to music on Spotify or shows on Netflix or Prime Video may depend on your country of origin. (And people regularly use VPNs to pretend to be from some other place to access this content.) Copyrights and trade agreements more generally often have provisions for various countries, and some countries like China ban access to entire systems via firewalls.\n\nThis question asks about APIs, not browser or app usage, because APIs are the most flexible way to use large AI systems. (In April 2023, [Italy banned and then unbanned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/28/23702883/chatgpt-italy-ban-lifted-gpdp-data-protection-age-verification) ChatGPT's interface but not the API, which was decried as ineffectual.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31 2025, US law requires at least some powerful generative AI systems to restrict API access to only people in the US, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "* \"Powerful generative AI systems\" refers to AI that can solve a wide variety of tasks, such as GPT-4, and DALLE-2. Systems that translate, do text -> audio or audio -> text, summarize, search, etc. will not count as \"generative\". If unclear, admins will determine \"powerful\" by whether the AI is known to frequently generate things that typically bother governments, such as Deep Fakes or instructions to build weapons.\n\n* \"Restrict\" here will be interpreted broadly. It could be by requiring AI owners to check IPs, like with DRM; it could be by requiring people to verify their identity to get API access tokens, like with KYC. Doesn't matter how easy it is to circumvent such restrictions such as via VPN.\n\n* \"Only people in the US\" will be interpreted broadly, it may include Americans who are abroad, or include non-permanent residents who are visiting, or require some verification only Americans can get like Social Security numbers.", "post_id": 17100, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757770409.653672, "end_time": 1758924962.793614, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757770409.653672, "end_time": 1758924962.793614, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.07342053026743783 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.31964760159434596, 3.3448773891726304, 1.2042075300271342, 0.8354794127571219, 0.6403200895653883, 0.7643250247460956, 0.8361622817150466, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.18772481464954754, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14343715462049048, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289098.237285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289098.237285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9519838331404131, 0.04801616685958688 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 180, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not restrict API or browser access to any Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 (ChatGPT) or Google Bard. As the capabilities of such systems grow, and users learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to enrich uranium or create Deep Fakes), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to restrict usage to those that are verified to be in the US.\n\nA similar regime exists for Digital Rights Management for music & movies - access to music on Spotify or shows on Netflix or Prime Video may depend on your country of origin. (And people regularly use VPNs to pretend to be from some other place to access this content.) Copyrights and trade agreements more generally often have provisions for various countries, and some countries like China ban access to entire systems via firewalls.\n\nThis question asks about APIs, not browser or app usage, because APIs are the most flexible way to use large AI systems. (In April 2023, [Italy banned and then unbanned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/28/23702883/chatgpt-italy-ban-lifted-gpdp-data-protection-age-verification) ChatGPT's interface but not the API, which was decried as ineffectual.)" }, { "id": 17096, "title": "Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?", "short_title": "US tracks training runs by 2026", "url_title": "US tracks training runs by 2026", "slug": "us-tracks-training-runs-by-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:45:04.271273Z", "published_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.924543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-30T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17096, "title": "Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:45:04.271273Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-30T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-30T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not restrict training of large AI models in any capacity. Current state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address risks from AI is to require those who train large models to report this training, and to audit such reports.\n\nA similar regime exists for labor - firms must report how many employees they have (and have various obligations resulting from that). Another parallel might be reporting for the amount of CO2 the company emits. Such regulation may be tied to taxes or statements of public disclosure.\n\nA list of large AI training runs can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0). See also [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) for much more information about AI training resource costs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if by Dec 31, 2025, US law requires that large training runs done by any individual or corporation are reported to US authorities, and verifies such reports, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The law(s) need not apply to non-US entities, even if they use US computational resources and are covered by other regulation such as [export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China).\n\n\"Large training runs\" here can be measured in various ways, and will be interpreted broadly. If measured in FLOPs, then admins will define large as at least 10% the estimated FLOPs used by OpenAI to train GPT-4, 2.1 * 10^25.\n\n\"Reported to US authorities\" here will be interpreted broadly - laws requiring any clearly defined reporting mechanism to any part of the US Federal government qualify.\n\n\"Verifies\" here will be interpreted broadly. For example, public companies may be legally required to hire independent evaluators, as is done with accounting.", "post_id": 17096, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712809727.502958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712809727.502958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.5381864706481755 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.008902640948057735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0221885908364169, 0.004923348169013251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46416998254747094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009068835181816455, 0.0, 0.759727605163844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.845118916157503, 0.0, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.0105689540850258, 0.036618791251766876, 0.19519530604924692, 0.01936509307245438, 0.0, 0.13778371961094252, 0.0, 0.6375384979936665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06367247509170942, 0.37068749199850365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.06057091202132427, 0.7126735024003407, 0.1147878510099504, 0.0, 0.2902867700328057, 0.0038881009225659245, 0.34331951429497504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8749085186757798, 0.6232909478721508, 0.5242754350840009, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.431007191772122, 0.2502185777012937, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0481588196652791, 0.0, 0.31768015703601027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228311751426085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10452470613861276, 0.16316834760854618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2680970302483232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5770453408276514, 0.0, 0.15062225698690318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9356445192922368 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.495025260092939, "coverage": 0.17334658198050415, "baseline_score": -18.794864628276134, "spot_peer_score": -3.2862306605049776, "peer_archived_score": 5.495025260092939, "baseline_archived_score": -18.794864628276134, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.2862306605049776 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697309029.654136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697309029.654136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7776196840900094, 0.22238031590999058 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 2023, US law does not restrict training of large AI models in any capacity. Current state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address risks from AI is to require those who train large models to report this training, and to audit such reports.\n\nA similar regime exists for labor - firms must report how many employees they have (and have various obligations resulting from that). Another parallel might be reporting for the amount of CO2 the company emits. Such regulation may be tied to taxes or statements of public disclosure.\n\nA list of large AI training runs can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0). See also [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) for much more information about AI training resource costs." }, { "id": 17095, "title": "Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?", "short_title": "US restricts compute before 2026?", "url_title": "US restricts compute before 2026?", "slug": "us-restricts-compute-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:24:08.246510Z", "published_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:26:31.187903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17095, "title": "Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:24:08.246510Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Under May 2023 US law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware.\n\nCurrent state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address AI risks is to legally restrict the compute capacity available to individual projects or actors, akin to how the US regulates the possession and usage of weapons, chemicals, and human labor.\n\nLegal restrictions on computational resources might also arise due to concerns from cryptography, cryptocurrency, or the environment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolve as **YES** if, by Dec 31, 2025, US law places at least some restrictions on the total amount of compute capacity that any individual or corporation may purchase, manufacture, or possess, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "While many types of restrictions may qualify (# of chips of certain types, total power used in datacenters, etc.), the restrictions must be absolute in some degree. For example, taxes (like a carbon tax) would not qualify, nor would a licensing process (see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17110/us-or-ca-license-to-train-ai-before-2026/).)\n\nIt count only if certain types of compute are restricted, such as total GPUs or TPUs, this still resolves positively.\n\nThe restrictions must apply throughout the US and to all US-based companies, though need not apply to non-US entities that also use US supply chains or technology.\n\nIf the restrictions apply only to fully public people/companies, and not to state-owned or partially-state-owned orgs (as is the case with nuclear power), this still resolves positively.", "post_id": 17095, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758458216.019838, "end_time": 1758931359.273782, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758458216.019838, "end_time": 1758931359.273782, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.994, 0.006 ], "means": [ 0.09266223685383089 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.4366478159289535, 0.5079549768526164, 0.0, 0.7727395242812621, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6183880348810638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.22222296282921972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289909.377118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289909.377118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.992320102623121, 0.007679897376879068 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 127, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Under May 2023 US law, individuals or corporations are not restricted from owning and operating any amount of computational hardware.\n\nCurrent state-of-the-art AI projects require immense computational resources to develop. One way US policymakers may address AI risks is to legally restrict the compute capacity available to individual projects or actors, akin to how the US regulates the possession and usage of weapons, chemicals, and human labor.\n\nLegal restrictions on computational resources might also arise due to concerns from cryptography, cryptocurrency, or the environment." }, { "id": 17094, "title": "Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?", "short_title": "GPU tracking before 2026", "url_title": "GPU tracking before 2026", "slug": "gpu-tracking-before-2026", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:10:19.738838Z", "published_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:28:36.186876Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "comment_count": 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"2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T03:09:48.324048Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17094, "title": "Will the US require purchasers of large numbers of GPUs to report their usage before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-05-13T21:10:19.738838Z", "open_time": "2023-05-17T15:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-19T15:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Training large AI models like GPT-4 requires a large number of high-performance GPUs, such as NVIDIA Tesla V100 and A100 models, or Google TPUs (tensor processing units).\n\nOne way for AI policy to impact training (and, to a lesser degree, serving/inference) of large AI models is to track how these chips are used. This can be done via firmware - software that runs on the chip, typically for things like power management, memory allocation, tracking device performance, reporting crashes, or importantly, reporting usage statistics. Or it could be done at the cluster or datacenter level.\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China. These chips are the ones referred to as \"US-export-controlled\". This willingness of the US to put restrictions on how certain chips are sold to certain people implies a potential for regulations on the monitoring of certain chips.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if by Dec 31, 2025, US law requires purchasers of a large number of GPUs to report their usage in the training of large AI models, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "Each point in the resolution will be interpreted broadly:\n\n* Can be any reasonable definition of GPUs, such as all NVIDIA or ARM GPUs covered by the export controls established in 2022. If training of large AI systems can be done by a wider set of chips, resolves based on whether such chips are generally implicated by these laws.\n\n* \"Large number of GPUs\" here can be any reasonable threshold, such as >100 GPUs, or >$100k of GPUs.\n\n* \"training of large AI models\" will be interpreted broadly - for example, requiring firmware that tracks whether _any_ ML training is occurring would qualify. However, the regulations must apply at the level of chip monitoring - it is not sufficient that the purchasers of GPUs must summarize their usage patterns qualitatively.\n\n* \"Report\" here means that the usage must be reported to some governing authority, at a level of detail such that the governing authorities can clearly determine if large AI models have been trained using the chips.", "post_id": 17094, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758383018.937933, "end_time": 1758931368.471935, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1727769202681021 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758383018.937933, "end_time": 1758931368.471935, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1727769202681021 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1492705706430048 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7337519574005285, 0.08787151928995177, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.8153249963609456, 0.7727395242812621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.700170637032079, 0.0, 0.5270590116682182, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.6640427727672698, 0.08135903122117803, 0.21526221595892353, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287764.814703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287764.814703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.933797237513552, 0.06620276248644798 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 137, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Training large AI models like GPT-4 requires a large number of high-performance GPUs, such as NVIDIA Tesla V100 and A100 models, or Google TPUs (tensor processing units).\n\nOne way for AI policy to impact training (and, to a lesser degree, serving/inference) of large AI models is to track how these chips are used. This can be done via firmware - software that runs on the chip, typically for things like power management, memory allocation, tracking device performance, reporting crashes, or importantly, reporting usage statistics. Or it could be done at the cluster or datacenter level.\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China. These chips are the ones referred to as \"US-export-controlled\". This willingness of the US to put restrictions on how certain chips are sold to certain people implies a potential for regulations on the monitoring of certain chips." }, { "id": 17090, "title": "Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?", "short_title": "Russia damages Patriot air defense system?", "url_title": "Russia damages Patriot air defense system?", "slug": "russia-damages-patriot-air-defense-system", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-12T23:19:15.954724Z", "published_at": "2023-05-18T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.345461Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-18T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-18T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17090, "title": "Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-12T23:19:15.954724Z", "open_time": "2023-05-18T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-18T17:41:42.137577Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-18T17:41:42.137577Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Friday, May 12, two US officials [told news sources](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kinzhal-missile-targeted-patriot-battery-report-claims) that Russia launched a hypersonic [Kh-47 Kinzhal](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine) missile towards a [Patriot Missile battery in Ukraine](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64231654). \n\nUkraine has [at least two](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/politics/russia-patriot-missiles-ukraine/index.html) such batteries, one from the United States and one from Germany.\n\n> The Patriot missile system has a powerful radar to detect incoming targets at long-range, making it a potent air defense platform capable of intercepting ballistic missiles and more. But the radar emission necessary to spot threats at a distance also makes it possible for the enemy to detect the Patriot battery and figure out its location. And unlike some shorter-range air defenses provided to Ukraine that are mobile and harder to target, the large Patriot battery is a stationary system, making it possible for the Russians to zero in on the location over time.\n\n[Ukraine said](https://www.npr.org/2023/05/06/1174505616/ukraine-patriot-defense-russian-hypersonic-missile-kinzhal) the Russian hypersonic missile was shot down by a Patriot battery.\n\nAccording to the US Congressional Research Service, a new Patriot battery costs approximately $1.1 billion, including $400 million for the system and $690 million for the missiles.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if two credible reports state a Patriot Missile battery in Ukraine has been substantially damaged or destroyed by Russia. At least [one of the six major components](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12297#:~:text=PATRIOT%20System%20Costs&text=According%20to%20a%20December%2016,%24690%20million%20for%20the%20missiles.) of a Patriot battery in Ukraine must be destroyed:\n\n1. The power plant (two vehicle-mounted 150 KW generators)\n2. The radar set\n\n> The Radar Set provides detection and tracking of targets as well as fire control. The phased array radar helps guide interceptors to their targets and is resistant to jamming.\n\n3. The engagement control station\n> The Engagement Control Station calculates trajectories for interceptors and controls the launching sequence. It communicates with the launcher stations and other PATRIOT batteries. It is the only manned station in a PATRIOT fire unit.\n\n4. The launcher stations\n>The Launcher Stations transport and protect the interceptor missiles and provide the platform for the physical launch of the missile. Each launcher station can accommodate four PAC-2 missiles or 16 PAC-3 missiles.\n\n5. The antenna mast group\n> The Antenna Mast Group is the main communications backbone for the PATRIOT unit.\n\n6. The interceptor systems\n> The Interceptor Missiles: PAC-2 is a proximity fusing missile, which explodes near an incoming missile, PAC-3 has been specifically designed to intercept and destroy missiles by impacting them directly with kinetic energy- known as “hit to kill.”\n\nThe question will also resolve **Yes** if any of these systems, or the battery as a whole, is reported to be \"substantially damaged\" or equivalent. To be considered substantially damaged, reports must indicate that the battery has been rendered inoperable or ineffective, pending repairs.", "fine_print": "Interceptor missiles destroyed when fired by Ukrainian forces will not be sufficient to resolve this question.\n\nIf a Patriot system destroys itself, for example due to misfunction, the question will not resolve as **Yes**.\n\nIf a Patriot system is sabotaged and the acting party is unknown but assumed to be Russian-aligned forces by credible reports, the question will resolve **Yes**.", "post_id": 17090, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688144879.505365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688144879.505365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.029354351671862795 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.226169408025363, 8.806148113108653, 0.8416419871180187, 1.0992091572432492, 0.5882857578542025, 0.5951589538346913, 1.2110208030071004, 0.0, 0.6079448126190974, 0.32287864091749907, 0.18144214275619108, 0.005013454196939874, 0.0006459470066485329, 0.019741963540957697, 0.0, 0.10990945149377047, 0.0015553090748629881, 0.0, 0.04902032594367584, 0.0027755757173471216, 0.0842207820082643, 0.0, 0.013627981441353396, 0.006710193312118844, 0.0, 0.03361267117754697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006897971102244721, 0.01806628565179133, 0.0, 0.0289197627306021, 0.008079667438195534, 0.021059126972739747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15420377024260856, 0.02039417611286089, 0.007618663647911763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008845328803183903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023508238122155346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010555929970589165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016243512157325297 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.492323310654271, "coverage": 0.9999469404885786, "baseline_score": 72.13899534020955, "spot_peer_score": -0.6675467993133792, "peer_archived_score": 15.492323310654271, "baseline_archived_score": 72.13899534020955, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.6675467993133792 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688144879.52832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688144879.52832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 346, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Friday, May 12, two US officials [told news sources](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kinzhal-missile-targeted-patriot-battery-report-claims) that Russia launched a hypersonic [Kh-47 Kinzhal](https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44840/we-have-questions-about-russias-claimed-kinzhal-hypersonic-missile-use-in-ukraine) missile towards a [Patriot Missile battery in Ukraine](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64231654). \n\nUkraine has [at least two](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/12/politics/russia-patriot-missiles-ukraine/index.html) such batteries, one from the United States and one from Germany.\n\n> The Patriot missile system has a powerful radar to detect incoming targets at long-range, making it a potent air defense platform capable of intercepting ballistic missiles and more. But the radar emission necessary to spot threats at a distance also makes it possible for the enemy to detect the Patriot battery and figure out its location. And unlike some shorter-range air defenses provided to Ukraine that are mobile and harder to target, the large Patriot battery is a stationary system, making it possible for the Russians to zero in on the location over time.\n\n[Ukraine said](https://www.npr.org/2023/05/06/1174505616/ukraine-patriot-defense-russian-hypersonic-missile-kinzhal) the Russian hypersonic missile was shot down by a Patriot battery.\n\nAccording to the US Congressional Research Service, a new Patriot battery costs approximately $1.1 billion, including $400 million for the system and $690 million for the missiles." }, { "id": 16792, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine controls ZNPP by December 2023", "url_title": "Ukraine controls ZNPP by December 2023", "slug": "ukraine-controls-znpp-by-december-2023", "author_id": 132719, "author_username": "MetaCalculator", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-09T20:28:53.166264Z", "published_at": "2023-05-12T23:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.757319Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-12T23:15:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:02:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-12T23:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 115, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16792, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-05-09T20:28:53.166264Z", "open_time": "2023-05-12T23:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-13T20:25:17.778253Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-13T20:25:17.778253Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T22:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T22:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZNPP) (ZNPP) is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, with an electric output of 5.7 GWh. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces took control over the plant. \n\nThe [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency) (IAEA) has requested Russia to relinquish control over the plant, a request that so far Russia has refused. Ukraine has also made attempts to recapture the plant by force, which so far have failed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as 'yes' if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Ukrainian forces are in physical control over the ZNPP, on or before December 31, 2023, and maintain that control for at least seven consecutive days. Otherwise, the question will resolve as 'no.' If control is maintained for seven consecutive days, the question will resolve as \"yes,\" regardless of whether control changes again after that date.", "fine_print": "The presence, or invitation, of IAEA personnel, UN observers or peacekeepers, Russian military or civilian personnel, or any other parties, or the striking of any deals between Russia and Ukraine, will not be sufficient to resolve as 'yes', unless Ukraine is reported to be in physical control of the site on or before the expiry date.\n\nThe international status, operational status, or any accidents or incidents at the ZNPP, do not by themselves affect the resolution outcome.", "post_id": 16792, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075975.114855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075975.114855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023772677893738933 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.562619269275617, 7.882566023142826, 0.7044783531280141, 0.9872982154318453, 0.0, 0.3470438228906677, 0.06562455790599403, 0.2448261946336436, 0.016729933915469394, 0.08917260264186336, 0.061615800724096864, 0.012286551676066843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19672145490508916, 0.0, 0.148452899856733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015320254314408236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03914468908841351, 0.0, 0.042098376819922026, 0.18854470156520242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052262152668052314, 0.0, 9.055150687721309e-05, 0.00320753435115021, 0.16871685475903522, 0.0009283071419673167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004373014579243026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015508503843127887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006068793783218393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001626670157522502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04770783938512042, 0.0022121174038466965, 0.0, 0.025920075805741058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007033164117141776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000520080144308091, 0.0, 0.0012019557048390125, 0.0, 0.00630160418617905, 0.0, 0.002953318548499343, 0.00025498252310941446, 0.0, 0.00020597879790480454, 0.00044217479300900296, 0.0, 0.00404204164753056, 0.00037246101996206123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0039753087057917014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017209026122773732, 0.0019272342406730534, 0.014450027362402536 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 39.12248385375512, "coverage": 0.9999806594886118, "baseline_score": 47.54754136108863, "spot_peer_score": 58.764968014883536, "peer_archived_score": 39.12248385375512, "baseline_archived_score": 47.54754136108863, "spot_peer_archived_score": 58.764968014883536 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704094943.282594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704094943.282594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 356, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZNPP) (ZNPP) is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, with an electric output of 5.7 GWh. After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russian forces took control over the plant. \n\nThe [International Atomic Energy Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Atomic_Energy_Agency) (IAEA) has requested Russia to relinquish control over the plant, a request that so far Russia has refused. Ukraine has also made attempts to recapture the plant by force, which so far have failed." }, { "id": 16787, "title": "In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?", "short_title": "Trump vs Biden in 2024?", "url_title": "Trump vs Biden in 2024?", "slug": "trump-vs-biden-in-2024", "author_id": 115957, "author_username": "chinmaythemathguy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-08T18:27:22.252603Z", "published_at": "2023-05-11T23:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.402890Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-11T23:54:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:12:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-11T23:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 149, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16787, "title": "In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received?", "created_at": "2023-05-08T18:27:22.252603Z", "open_time": "2023-05-11T23:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-13T23:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-13T23:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T20:13:00.699567Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) were the top two candidates for US President in 2020. Both have declared their candidacy for the presidency in 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump and Joe Biden, in either order, are the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received in the 2024 US Presidential Election. The question resolves based on the votes as counted by Congress and entered into the Congressional record.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16787, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728387989.835422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728387989.835422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011049970014986216 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.635294289007145, 3.836873567785119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1398078871473414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014577571538750897, 0.0, 0.00021692577032311923, 0.0, 0.0025025365755661855, 0.0, 0.001245398791939104, 0.0, 2.9430639894362352e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015104301101921427, 0.0004070290020078907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005670237881128052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005159784951881919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1417301136969922e-05, 0.0029060231712994874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032643623487589413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0042649657519376865, 4.871823887525395e-05, 0.0006985208185699059, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0308631743741425e-05, 0.0004192174788592985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021006151247507945, 0.0004558306925796872, 0.004942566935367143, 0.0010343082445553027, 0.0032530720714019565, 0.0009402425934204333, 8.809472201414948e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007791405061897842, 0.008458026259184463, 0.0019315252996501865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01305106694939209, 0.0, 0.015891166023790974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006130633140952651, 0.0, 0.01552156299904583, 0.02791892521581489, 0.061503193597553685 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -124.0372056237046, "peer_score": -2.986235657767776, "coverage": 0.9999724893850319, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999724893850319, "spot_peer_score": 9.163457323777935, "spot_baseline_score": -59.94620704162715, "baseline_archived_score": -124.0372056237046, "peer_archived_score": -2.986235657767776, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.163457323777935, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -59.94620704162715 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289423.79697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289423.79697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 473, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump (R) and Joe Biden (D) were the top two candidates for US President in 2020. Both have declared their candidacy for the presidency in 2024." }, { "id": 16762, "title": "Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?", "short_title": "2023 housing market collapse", "url_title": "2023 housing market collapse", "slug": "2023-housing-market-collapse", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-06T23:40:42.894510Z", "published_at": "2023-05-31T22:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.204729Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-31T22:57:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T23:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T23:32:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-31T22:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16762, "title": "Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-06T23:40:42.894510Z", "open_time": "2023-05-31T22:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-02T22:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-02T22:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T23:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T23:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-04T23:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The last time a housing price drop of >= 15% in a year was in 2008 (18%). The collapse was due to the [subprime housing crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis). \n\n<img src=\"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxMZad2WwAABv39?format=jpg&name=4096x4096\" alt=\"Case Schiller Drop in 2008\" />\n\n\nHome prices increased by [double digits](https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/articles/when-will-the-housing-market-crash#:~:text=Are%20we%20in%20a%20housing%20bubble%20right%20now%3F,housing%20bubble%20burst%20in%202023.) during the Covid pandemic years until mid 2022. Since then it has declined. While some economists [predict](https://www.yahoo.com/now/economist-predicted-2008-housing-crash-204218890.html#:~:text=Citing%20the%20large%20disparity%20between,fall%20another%2015%25%20in%202023.&text=Shepherdson%2C%20the%20founder%20and%20chief,crash%20of%202008%20in%202005.) a 15-20% \"crash\" into early next year, many others do not agree but see [smaller decreases](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/economist-who-foresaw-housing-crunch-sees-home-prices-dropping#xj4y7vzkg) in value.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a \"crash\" is defined as drop of greater than or equal to 15% in the [national Case–Shiller home price index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case%E2%80%93Shiller_index). \n\nThe question will resolve **Yes** if the [national version of this index](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-nsa-index/#overview) is below 249.20 for any month in 2023, which would be a more than 15% drop relative to the February 2023 value of 293.17.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16762, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703635632.20703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703635632.20703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.019850603677850902 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.379776521175504, 3.469778210190722, 0.1011216878911307, 0.2664292877798576, 0.1148171974242466, 0.7729533199957874, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08867683223307754, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773927070098371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.9791095032375927, "coverage": 0.9999159053154615, "baseline_score": 92.16039809569283, "spot_peer_score": 4.657115998676682, "peer_archived_score": 2.9791095032375927, "baseline_archived_score": 92.16039809569283, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.657115998676682 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008396.192935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008396.192935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The last time a housing price drop of >= 15% in a year was in 2008 (18%). The collapse was due to the [subprime housing crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis). \n\n<img src=\"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxMZad2WwAABv39?format=jpg&name=4096x4096\" alt=\"Case Schiller Drop in 2008\" />\n\n\nHome prices increased by [double digits](https://realestate.usnews.com/real-estate/articles/when-will-the-housing-market-crash#:~:text=Are%20we%20in%20a%20housing%20bubble%20right%20now%3F,housing%20bubble%20burst%20in%202023.) during the Covid pandemic years until mid 2022. Since then it has declined. While some economists [predict](https://www.yahoo.com/now/economist-predicted-2008-housing-crash-204218890.html#:~:text=Citing%20the%20large%20disparity%20between,fall%20another%2015%25%20in%202023.&text=Shepherdson%2C%20the%20founder%20and%20chief,crash%20of%202008%20in%202005.) a 15-20% \"crash\" into early next year, many others do not agree but see [smaller decreases](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-20/economist-who-foresaw-housing-crunch-sees-home-prices-dropping#xj4y7vzkg) in value." }, { "id": 16743, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?", "short_title": "Ukraine regains Bakhmut before June 2023?", "url_title": "Ukraine regains Bakhmut before June 2023?", "slug": "ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100345, "username": "EvanHarper" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-05T17:48:54.222022Z", "published_at": "2023-05-08T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.135880Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-08T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-08T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 230, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16743, "title": "Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-05T17:48:54.222022Z", "open_time": "2023-05-08T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-08T17:44:25.006193Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-08T17:44:25.006193Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve [rapidly taking the capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)), deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after this plan was unsuccessful, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"[Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group),\" a Russian paramilitary force.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was a central focus of the war, with fighting in [trench warfare conditions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-warns-of-new-missile-attacks-russia-may-be-preparing-to-leave-zaporizhzhia-plant-nuclear-chief-says?page=with:block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6#block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6) and [heavy casualties](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-estimates-50-100-russian-troops-are-killed-in-bakhmut-sector-daily/).\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news). On January 16, Russian forces [secured control of Soledar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Soledar) and began encircling Bakhmut.\n\nAfter [months of fighting](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/3/9/23631178/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war-wagner) Russia made [incremental gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut) in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building [allegedly](https://kyivindependent.com/presidents-office-head-urges-calmly-react-to-fakes-after-wagner-boss-claims-seizure-of-bakhmut-administration-building/) falling to Russian troops in April. \n\nOn May 5, the head of the Wagner Group [said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/prigozhin-wagner-troops-withdraw-bakhmut-russia-military-ammo-video-rcna83015) because of lack of Russian support. The same day, Ukraine [accused Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65506993) of using phosphorus bombs in the battle.", "resolution_criteria": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n\nThe question will resolve **Yes** if, when checked by Metaculus admins at 5pm ET on May 31, 2023, the map shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building—located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500—is under any of the following categories:\n\n- Ukranian Control\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukranian control of the location\n\nThe question will resolve **No** if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n- Assessed Russian Advance\n- Claimed Russian Control\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building\n\nThe question will resolve **Ambiguous** if the administrative building is in the \"Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\" category.\n\nForecasters can see the exact location of the administrative building by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500\".", "fine_print": "Credit to [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2621-will-the-location-of-the-administrative-services-building-in-bakhmut-ukraine-cease-to-be-under-ukrainian-control-before-26-january-2023-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war) for inspiring the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 16743, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685566382.311677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685566382.311677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.021300985243766737 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.348157682900302, 13.304348880626025, 0.20191174159907574, 0.1114742203228996, 0.3544403578425763, 0.43662868969006435, 0.1765038911555955, 0.34785747039000137, 0.6297517060317688, 0.0, 0.0005613413928317892, 0.0, 0.006306048985943911, 0.040458029736638264, 0.001678851851150416, 0.0018237375145603266, 5.261605795026018e-05, 0.0, 0.00040271491239937744, 9.538258726042813e-06, 0.0006946830699551857, 0.35929364780839357, 0.0, 0.004907978727922435, 0.0, 0.027605089374687336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.653865010836196e-05, 1.0928969944641897e-05, 4.2357294506381794e-05, 0.0, 0.27991693663875905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009882848057102987, 0.0, 7.144797433795738e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009374918675864001, 5.1483547571058654e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007256106694851587, 0.0, 0.00028422315022594936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015647306824719177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6004425783823317e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003761054511070602, 0.0, 0.18730568364124542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.78652439711276e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.348646551020149, "coverage": 0.999943384808089, "baseline_score": 85.66060482937739, "spot_peer_score": 8.703228810202623, "peer_archived_score": 8.348646551020149, "baseline_archived_score": 85.66060482937739, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.703228810202623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685566382.333575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685566382.333575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 230, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 766, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia's initial plan seemed to involve [rapidly taking the capital](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022)), deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April 2022, after this plan was unsuccessful, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"[Wagner Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group),\" a Russian paramilitary force.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was a central focus of the war, with fighting in [trench warfare conditions](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/28/russia-ukraine-war-live-zelenskiy-warns-of-new-missile-attacks-russia-may-be-preparing-to-leave-zaporizhzhia-plant-nuclear-chief-says?page=with:block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6#block-6384df3d8f083bf29b8c79e6) and [heavy casualties](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-estimates-50-100-russian-troops-are-killed-in-bakhmut-sector-daily/).\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news). On January 16, Russian forces [secured control of Soledar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Soledar) and began encircling Bakhmut.\n\nAfter [months of fighting](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2023/3/9/23631178/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-war-wagner) Russia made [incremental gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Bakhmut) in Bakhmut, with the city administrative building [allegedly](https://kyivindependent.com/presidents-office-head-urges-calmly-react-to-fakes-after-wagner-boss-claims-seizure-of-bakhmut-administration-building/) falling to Russian troops in April. \n\nOn May 5, the head of the Wagner Group [said that Wagner would withdraw from the battle](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/prigozhin-wagner-troops-withdraw-bakhmut-russia-military-ammo-video-rcna83015) because of lack of Russian support. The same day, Ukraine [accused Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65506993) of using phosphorus bombs in the battle." }, { "id": 16741, "title": "Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?", "short_title": "Trump Sexual Assault Case", "url_title": "Trump Sexual Assault Case", "slug": "trump-sexual-assault-case", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [ { "id": 144313, "username": "tburr" } ], "created_at": "2023-05-05T02:41:07.236133Z", "published_at": "2023-05-07T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.089807Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-07T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-09T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-09T19:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-07T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16741, "title": "Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?", "created_at": "2023-05-05T02:41:07.236133Z", "open_time": "2023-05-07T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-08T00:42:23.308469Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-08T00:42:23.308469Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-09T19:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-09T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-09T19:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[E. Jean Carroll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._Jean_Carroll), a writer and former advice columnist for Elle magazine, has [accused](https://www.vox.com/politics/23696250/e-jean-carroll-trump-trial-sexual-misconduct-rape-allegations) former President Donald Trump of raping her in the mid-1990s at the Bergdorf Goodman department store in Manhattan. Carroll [first spoke](https://www.thecut.com/2019/06/donald-trump-assault-e-jean-carroll-other-hideous-men.html) about the allegations in 2019, during Trump's presidency, and filed a defamation lawsuit against him in November 2019 after he denied the allegations and accused her of lying to boost sales of her forthcoming book. The defamation lawsuit stalled in the courts for years and has yet to reach trial.\n\nIn 2022, New York lawmakers passed the state's [Adult Survivors Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adult_Survivors_Act), which provided sexual abuse victims a one-year window to sue attackers for assaults that occurred years earlier. This law enabled Carroll to file a [second lawsuit](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-rape-sexual-assault-lawsuit-e-jean-carroll-new-york/) against Trump in November 2022, accusing him of both rape and defamation for denying the assault took place. The second lawsuit, seeking damages and a retraction of his denial, is now being presented in a New York City federal courtroom under the supervision of US District Judge Lewis Kaplan. The proceedings [began on April 25, 2023](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2023/donald-trump-civil-rape-trial-begins), and both sides rested their cases on May 4th.\n\nFor Trump, a loss in the defamation case could lead to financial damages and further damage his reputation. Moreover, an unfavorable outcome in the rape case could potentially validate Carroll's allegations and add to the controversies surrounding Trump's personal conduct. Losing the cases could also have broader implications, as it could embolden other accusers to pursue legal action and weaken Trump's political influence moving forward.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the jury in the lawsuit between E. Jean Carroll and Donald Trump delivers a verdict in favor of the plaintiff. The question will also resolve as **Yes** if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Donald Trump agrees to pay the plaintiffs at least a portion of the claimed damages and/or issues a retraction of his denial. \n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the jury delivers a verdict in favor of Donald Trump. The question will also resolve as **No** if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Donald Trump does not agree to pay the plaintiff at least a portion of the claimed damages or issue a retraction of his previous denial.\n\nIn the event of a mistrial, hung jury, a dismissal of the case before the jury reaches a verdict, or if a settlement is reached but is not publicly disclosed, the question will resolve as \"ambiguous.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16741, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683661612.196053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683661612.196053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7747732637969355 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.12891140607481918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025360596869753158, 0.001873194738889857, 0.0, 0.16594419818162792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1648228012086056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30199423264781133, 0.0, 0.4385723433247139, 0.6078787105428978, 0.0, 0.06032709531608127, 0.811416550324366, 0.8705052744070133, 0.12443678207034711, 0.0, 0.022015505594186534, 0.10227296739520486, 0.009712334743922024, 0.18044206424386386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9487865084827019, 0.0, 0.09244601710264838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.720942875033639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2153378168622927, 0.0, 1.5761926414269367, 0.0, 0.23476788075709235, 0.013841141009878904, 0.006447634808499139, 0.0376241220922931, 1.0833878600122757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7033457699064573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8113610949475989, 0.0, 0.0, 2.59910476005078 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.061138260203379, "coverage": 0.4393767776770191, "baseline_score": 20.255657924376823, "spot_peer_score": 76.54566603286509, "peer_archived_score": 15.061138260203379, "baseline_archived_score": 20.255657924376823, "spot_peer_archived_score": 76.54566603286509 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683660461.268765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683660461.268765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2913544465135576, 0.7086455534864424 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[E. Jean Carroll](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E._Jean_Carroll), a writer and former advice columnist for Elle magazine, has [accused](https://www.vox.com/politics/23696250/e-jean-carroll-trump-trial-sexual-misconduct-rape-allegations) former President Donald Trump of raping her in the mid-1990s at the Bergdorf Goodman department store in Manhattan. Carroll [first spoke](https://www.thecut.com/2019/06/donald-trump-assault-e-jean-carroll-other-hideous-men.html) about the allegations in 2019, during Trump's presidency, and filed a defamation lawsuit against him in November 2019 after he denied the allegations and accused her of lying to boost sales of her forthcoming book. The defamation lawsuit stalled in the courts for years and has yet to reach trial.\n\nIn 2022, New York lawmakers passed the state's [Adult Survivors Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adult_Survivors_Act), which provided sexual abuse victims a one-year window to sue attackers for assaults that occurred years earlier. This law enabled Carroll to file a [second lawsuit](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-rape-sexual-assault-lawsuit-e-jean-carroll-new-york/) against Trump in November 2022, accusing him of both rape and defamation for denying the assault took place. The second lawsuit, seeking damages and a retraction of his denial, is now being presented in a New York City federal courtroom under the supervision of US District Judge Lewis Kaplan. The proceedings [began on April 25, 2023](https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2023/donald-trump-civil-rape-trial-begins), and both sides rested their cases on May 4th.\n\nFor Trump, a loss in the defamation case could lead to financial damages and further damage his reputation. Moreover, an unfavorable outcome in the rape case could potentially validate Carroll's allegations and add to the controversies surrounding Trump's personal conduct. Losing the cases could also have broader implications, as it could embolden other accusers to pursue legal action and weaken Trump's political influence moving forward." } ] }
