Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3260
{ "count": 6366, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3280", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3240", "results": [ { "id": 20759, "title": "Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?", "short_title": "AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?", "url_title": "AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?", "slug": "ai-wins-coding-competition-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T18:44:03.852629Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.493850Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 489, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "๐ค", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "๐ป", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "๐ค", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20759, "title": "Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T18:44:03.852629Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T14:17:20.757134Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February of 2022 Google DeepMind [unveiled AlphaCode](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/competitive-programming-with-alphacode/), an AI system that it claimed \"writes computer programs at a competitive level\". AlphaCode was assessed on challenges [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/), a platform for competitive coding with prizes for the best and most efficient solutions to the problems posed. [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/2/22914085/alphacode-ai-coding-program-automatic-deepmind-codeforce):\n\n>AlphaCode was tested on 10 of challenges that had been tackled by 5,000 users on the Codeforces site. On average, it ranked within the top 54.3 percent of responses, and DeepMind estimates that this gives the system a Codeforces Elo of 1238, which places it within the top 28 percent of users who have competed on the site in the last six months.\n\nIn December of 2023, DeepMind announced AlphaCode 2, powered by its [new Gemini model](https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-gemini-ai/). In an [accompanying technical report](https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/AlphaCode2/AlphaCode2_Tech_Report.pdf), DeepMind described AlphaCode2 as a significant improvement over the first AlphaCode and said it performed better than 85% of competition participants on Codeforces.\n\n>When evaluated on the Codeforces platform โ a mainstay of competitive programming โ AlphaCode 2 solves 43% of problems within 10 attempts, close to twice as many problems as the original AlphaCode (25%). While its predecessor performed at the level of the median competitor, we estimate that AlphaCode 2 reaches the 85th percentile on average.\n\nSo far AlphaCode results appear to be based on a comparison of its performance to those of contestants without actually entering the contest. [Discussions of the results](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035) by Codeforces users correctly guessed that a user known as AdamentChicken2 was one of the accounts used to submit AlphaCode 2 solutions, which was [confirmed by the user](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035?#comment-1091379) and in an X (formerly Twitter) posts ([1](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732712334626361671), [2](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732677521290789235)) by DeepMind research scientist Rรฉmi Leblond.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that an AI has won a coding contest on [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/) in the highest division.", "fine_print": "* To qualify, an AI must generate all code solutions entirely independently, no human editing, direction, or revision of solutions is allowed. For example, human direction iterating on generated output of the form \"X line of code is suboptimal, please revise it\" is not allowed.\n* The AI must top the official leaderboard for the contest, simulating the contest or participating in a virtual round will not be sufficient.\n* There is no requirement on how the generated solutions are processed or submitted except that solutions cannot be edited by humans. An AI generating many solutions with human filtering for the most optimal solution is allowed, and humans may make the submissions to the platform.\n* Currently the highest division on Codeforces is division 1, for users rated 1900+. The AI must win a contest that allows division 1 users to compete. If Codeforces changes its ratings or divisions the AI must win a contest that allows users in the highest division to enter.\n* A qualifying report may be silent on human intervention in the code generation, so long as Metaculus does not have reason to believe that human intervention occurred. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt. Where information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question asย **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 20759, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671910.079695, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 485, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671910.079695, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 485, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.04156117547477851 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.778868344552507, 12.349258652188109, 2.3227264795949623, 1.0693222622883534, 0.42583982683619404, 0.34067959536430825, 0.34012523185358745, 0.12345005089352762, 0.2609409335406492, 0.276653875097212, 0.3085089071057913, 7.634168593284274e-07, 0.036179095899018375, 0.0024999213598472345, 3.420246946228617e-05, 0.8430958181537458, 0.00016977246112647346, 0.017469186031782546, 0.0046357419452325984, 0.0, 0.15348378961279477, 0.01396756420576665, 0.06349810155708774, 0.008902810990401801, 1.8918974693388992e-05, 0.421201007101519, 0.0005796531644285303, 0.0009215816611261162, 1.597033877588103e-07, 0.0, 0.02646451172685571, 0.006072604724752456, 5.4165973360989936e-08, 1.063594314953583e-06, 0.0, 0.007934393749084733, 1.708423365309476e-05, 0.0034047697603578767, 0.006209709276892594, 0.0007809093099423216, 0.005990959692136704, 0.0006583478697907213, 0.0001462876137729657, 1.4708849528532186e-06, 3.69316072459543e-07, 0.044917064590740435, 0.0, 4.205721135174024e-06, 0.0, 0.0019440949650593416, 0.0024413039550532944, 3.596769357910142e-05, 2.780894153939372e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.004802439585776e-05, 5.535341216236263e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007510846589872936, 0.001860993215803874, 0.0, 8.472922116468318e-06, 0.0, 0.16646944793815763, 0.003555388047018314, 0.0010516069256674312, 0.0, 1.3591557647965476e-05, 0.002183900852783904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008334237226428348, 0.005853166223240479, 0.5599764728653476, 0.0001762464276225414, 1.6326589108051474e-05, 0.0, 1.9553120692708907e-05, 0.008688973274270363, 0.0, 5.920468870570165e-05, 1.320587068588678e-06, 0.029014337769144145, 0.0002091336415485358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12967613147215845, 2.2437422465618094e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008567039278624464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34398081814348713 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.83176412194952, "peer_score": 41.54597442397286, "coverage": 0.999901424482741, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999901424482741, "spot_peer_score": 37.97268821704141, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 89.83176412194952, "peer_archived_score": 41.54597442397286, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.97268821704141, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289920.439293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 483, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289920.439293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 483, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988802103226049, 0.0011197896773951423 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 943, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February of 2022 Google DeepMind [unveiled AlphaCode](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/competitive-programming-with-alphacode/), an AI system that it claimed \"writes computer programs at a competitive level\". AlphaCode was assessed on challenges [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/), a platform for competitive coding with prizes for the best and most efficient solutions to the problems posed. [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/2/22914085/alphacode-ai-coding-program-automatic-deepmind-codeforce):\n\n>AlphaCode was tested on 10 of challenges that had been tackled by 5,000 users on the Codeforces site. On average, it ranked within the top 54.3 percent of responses, and DeepMind estimates that this gives the system a Codeforces Elo of 1238, which places it within the top 28 percent of users who have competed on the site in the last six months.\n\nIn December of 2023, DeepMind announced AlphaCode 2, powered by its [new Gemini model](https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-gemini-ai/). In an [accompanying technical report](https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/AlphaCode2/AlphaCode2_Tech_Report.pdf), DeepMind described AlphaCode2 as a significant improvement over the first AlphaCode and said it performed better than 85% of competition participants on Codeforces.\n\n>When evaluated on the Codeforces platform โ a mainstay of competitive programming โ AlphaCode 2 solves 43% of problems within 10 attempts, close to twice as many problems as the original AlphaCode (25%). While its predecessor performed at the level of the median competitor, we estimate that AlphaCode 2 reaches the 85th percentile on average.\n\nSo far AlphaCode results appear to be based on a comparison of its performance to those of contestants without actually entering the contest. [Discussions of the results](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035) by Codeforces users correctly guessed that a user known as AdamentChicken2 was one of the accounts used to submit AlphaCode 2 solutions, which was [confirmed by the user](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035?#comment-1091379) and in an X (formerly Twitter) posts ([1](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732712334626361671), [2](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732677521290789235)) by DeepMind research scientist Rรฉmi Leblond." }, { "id": 20758, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI Describes Q* in 2024?", "url_title": "OpenAI Describes Q* in 2024?", "slug": "openai-describes-q-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T16:12:16.925908Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.312750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 622, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "๐ค", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "๐ป", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "๐ค", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20758, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T16:12:16.925908Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T14:38:53.631124Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altmanโs four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q\\* (or Q-Star) **and** publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q\\*.", "fine_print": "* A description of Q\\* must state that it is a system or method that was or is currently being developed or explored by OpenAI and must provide some information about what Q\\* is (for example, giving an overview of how Q\\* works without delving into technical detail). A description of a system or method that was published before 2024 but is publicly acknowledged to be Q\\* in 2024 will resolve the question as **Yes**.\n* A description does **not** need to contain any of the following:\n * A statement that Q\\* has been used on or is an AI system that has finished training or that is functional.\n * An accompanying release of an AI system known as Q\\* or that has been trained using Q\\*.\n * Any performance results.\n * A paper describing it in detail.\n* A public acknowledgement that the system or method described is Q\\* does not need to be made in the initial document describing the system or method, and can occur at a later time, including from public statements by OpenAI staff, including interviews, media appearances, or podcasts (this does not include statements made anonymously or on background). The question will resolve as **Yes** when all criteria are met. For example, if OpenAI publishes information about an AI system not named Q\\*, but in a later interview the OpenAI CEO states that the system is the previously rumored Q\\*, the question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* The system or method must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. If Microsoft or any other entity exercises its existing rights or purchases rights such that it announces such a system or method but without having legally acquired or merged with OpenAI it will **not** be sufficient.\n* A description specifically of Q\\* must be provided, a description of a system or method characterized as a successor to Q\\* would not qualify.", "post_id": 20758, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671907.516006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 618, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671907.516006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 618, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.05261778671771764 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.124194665508552, 7.0427973556365595, 4.206878284276723, 5.204696690338252, 2.8498145652794404, 5.182518071898628, 0.9901192583232162, 0.12955975455185656, 0.2234241657904713, 0.38510465367166424, 2.4070623621547336, 0.002306643975677641, 0.008189625415474034, 0.2984744628960989, 0.00623860013861416, 0.5934747597233005, 0.15382883470719452, 0.06549197029965916, 0.23452210071551208, 0.18903513209882591, 0.7664882390461478, 0.014507488101684986, 0.003212727439357921, 0.0016477006738853492, 0.12113883821412373, 0.003735177189847846, 0.23642303626472339, 0.0035117236022325655, 0.012501606154099863, 0.0, 0.2726650114830386, 1.0790028378379895e-05, 0.0006140976565311939, 0.05703632518852726, 0.17621271197181534, 0.006723290374048263, 1.368718635728165e-07, 0.0010205593114554245, 0.0, 4.978054395044881e-06, 0.027137400078470337, 0.00023645388464355404, 0.004794051916167533, 2.7038380547018305e-10, 0.0032069421272995385, 0.01562299611585833, 0.0005649752785293951, 0.07515143697420448, 0.002705927700482579, 2.9454465091886387e-06, 0.36661099917007756, 0.0, 6.546220839500408e-05, 0.0, 0.0004582394275240296, 0.004559541956250563, 0.004340269709875812, 0.0001775055780880411, 0.0, 3.888388482745459e-07, 0.01429360590828549, 0.10275584605524533, 0.0003975955823552147, 0.0, 0.00017647505040082394, 0.00517808772705774, 0.0022805309818769246, 0.00011945533317274277, 3.2948533967723604e-05, 0.00011049944165699924, 0.0047668148947786725, 2.44514110498953e-05, 8.733812406337541e-07, 0.00016647246443648298, 4.129443845883521e-05, 0.3422300375310932, 9.976535015485322e-06, 0.0010849213415993777, 0.17736619887140034, 3.824414314425298e-06, 0.08016884957798168, 4.271513707254082e-05, 4.598784175853898e-06, 7.700189919767815e-07, 2.064908164126594e-05, 2.027301320914765e-06, 6.166543231500808e-05, 0.0, 2.340004630635361e-07, 0.0, 0.00035011056229346054, 4.7847079165605414e-06, 5.9746346879593815e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006855635877699897, 0.0003232879572713849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007300803689925691 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.28310499028391, "peer_score": 51.67627387797022, "coverage": 0.9998974679814885, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998974679814885, "spot_peer_score": 41.69729536560886, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "baseline_archived_score": 63.28310499028391, "peer_archived_score": 51.67627387797022, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 41.69729536560886, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289104.322143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 611, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289104.322143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 611, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.948123761207921, 0.051876238792079074 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1591, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altmanโs four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy." }, { "id": 20757, "title": "Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?", "short_title": "EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024?", "url_title": "EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024?", "slug": "ev-sales-share-above-11-in-us-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T05:21:33.276584Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.087026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-23T01:54:00Z", 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"https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20757, "title": "Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T05:21:33.276584Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-23T01:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-23T01:58:29.061037Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Electric vehicles have seen significant sales growth in recent years, with plug-in vehicles (PEVs) making up less than 3% of light duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 2020, a figure that [has grown to above 9%](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates) through November 2023.\n\nPEVs consist of both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the total period made up of the months of January 2024 through November 2024, inclusive, the sales share of light duty plug-in vehicles (PEVs) is greater than 11% in the United States according to [data published by Argonne National Laboratory](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).", "fine_print": "* PEVs include both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).\n* Specifically, light duty vehicle sales figures published by Argonne in the [monthly historical data](https://www.anl.gov/esia/reference/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates-historical-data) will be used when data for November 2024 first becomes available. The percentage will be computed by using the total PEV sales from January through November 2024 compared to total light duty vehicle (LDV) sales over the same period. The question does **not** require each month to exceed 11% sales share.", "post_id": 20757, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732956686.149778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 495, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.015 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732956686.149778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 495, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025456628900337494 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.295181218535276, 16.179910267378048, 3.007451039299256, 1.7651883855116886, 1.2385187373595206, 0.8607694868240859, 0.7103069441075252, 0.030594993066724988, 0.25293426025112065, 0.32240529377320687, 0.7793097995354381, 0.16571231347435272, 0.1655120852121778, 0.017332185669658655, 0.06809365662525672, 0.1708317593662031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017163952829661416, 0.24744709298772613, 0.03892131591241616, 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The World Health Organization (WHO) [describes](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as follows:\n\n>A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, โan extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international responseโ. This definition implies a situation that is:\n>\n> * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected;\n> * carries implications for public health beyond the affected Stateโs national border; and\n> * may require immediate international action.\n\nThe International Health Regulations (IHR) Emergency Committee (EC) meets to monitor health risks and provide advice to [WHO Director-General](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director-General_of_the_World_Health_Organization), who makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.\n\nThere [have been seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Declarations) PHEIC declarations since the IHR was established in 2005. 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Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.\n\n[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. \n\nWithin Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks.", "resolution_criteria": "If Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration of calendar year 2024, this question will resolve as **YES** on January 1, 2025. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point during 2024, this question resolves **NO**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20753, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735683698.941544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 777, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735683698.941544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 777, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9687208298916433 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.448189701794732e-06, 0.11166650782010085, 1.4882830249035326e-06, 0.0, 1.2477347249470202e-05, 0.003117739336148731, 0.00016369990255310138, 0.0, 5.877462845279067e-07, 0.0018597881048569357, 0.001360792341982467, 0.0004082521833078034, 8.654380151358852e-06, 0.0005403867803396236, 0.0007941180928678466, 0.00025941639992760796, 0.00011699240885741577, 2.8121832787763385e-05, 1.641869260061322e-08, 0.0004201207082887917, 0.003951110274849064, 7.613276299585012e-07, 0.0, 0.0005006131841065936, 0.004120904913123321, 0.004160827517199648, 0.001920441752029609, 5.1464112572445696e-05, 0.008623851744439078, 0.0, 0.0032636648762391102, 0.0006868054816352036, 9.785732590760277e-06, 0.018045073045464908, 6.938752744204472e-05, 0.00494408580391275, 0.002358926901544356, 0.009111915808851817, 0.003112233201600623, 1.828550157568801e-06, 0.03241523110253605, 0.0022756728262312517, 0.006138663510944981, 0.00928000939264283, 0.006749164272437774, 0.0032397652418522335, 0.0010092550786612654, 0.000281472165173373, 0.0, 0.009838873487536773, 0.05696937046410343, 0.016306168046793072, 0.00011348948195645411, 0.015832756260338608, 0.009482131018035323, 0.021378441056218094, 0.0007497041415495064, 0.0012539626983746343, 0.0, 0.004261022531236007, 0.04360387538584811, 0.002423907123851797, 0.008599691039307389, 0.00036283202696918784, 4.291581425545275e-09, 0.08178473228274277, 0.024043333090601172, 0.017198131201211667, 0.0052640088923801235, 0.013598786462544386, 0.03649984867899065, 0.00010745642468662852, 0.0018689022046508158, 0.005793295398615136, 0.000117508565709769, 0.21041160592809477, 0.012524864205655059, 0.17897641955253674, 6.006354651868072e-09, 0.02950698081715977, 0.798830527993807, 0.05567592038427932, 0.019174254782868033, 0.2135824447885504, 0.021197003945768015, 0.5638230568845184, 0.09073729039617998, 0.01838654355296402, 0.27518720906537514, 0.2614983665759647, 2.0957607882841325, 0.24218408296366584, 0.6279307408549253, 0.19805472913927652, 1.0024643470928711, 2.32212859748883, 2.043255655973361, 2.027429820614736, 5.974490535773759, 34.34318468627827 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 39.65564343721717, "peer_score": 38.731498924312874, "coverage": 0.9999337532913953, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999337532913953, "spot_peer_score": 12.98004490200633, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": 39.65564343721717, "peer_archived_score": 38.731498924312874, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.98004490200633, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728292163.347443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 765, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728292163.347443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 765, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04883521430391202, 0.951164785696088 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 40, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2139, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*\n\n---\n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.\n\n[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. \n\nWithin Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks." }, { "id": 20752, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?", "short_title": "Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024", "url_title": "Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024", "slug": "russo-ukraine-cease-fire-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T04:24:49.492810Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.198786Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 303, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T18:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1142, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20752, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T04:24:49.492810Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T18:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T11:07:37.520907Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 2023, the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict remains complex and dynamic, with no clear indications of an imminent bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement. The war, which began when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has continued with varying intensity.\n\nRecent developments include ongoing hostilities in various regions, including Kherson and the industrial city of Avdiivka, indicating that the conflict remains active with no significant moves towards a ceasefire or peace talks. The Ukrainian military has adopted a more defensive posture after failing to achieve a major breakthrough in their months-long counteroffensive, as [noted by the United Kingdomโs Defence Ministry](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/analysts-ukraines-forces-pivoting-defense-after-russia-held-105807988).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral cease-fire begins at any point between December 23rd, 2023 and December 31, 2024 and stands for at least 30 days. (The latest possible ceasefire, by this criterion, begins December 31, 2024 and stands through January 30, 2025.) A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by January 30th, 2025.\n\nThe ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735697251.669679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735697251.669679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.033232642844289874 ], "histogram": [ [ 39.239668974656226, 14.727857659540053, 3.3969396276488415, 1.1723389147398482, 0.22219984791042985, 2.3219985693127003, 0.09437608077198895, 0.14063939602213263, 0.06046352148639196, 0.021204488299667333, 1.195208954344986, 0.07567210236977556, 0.13436167397420734, 0.0034786074937845387, 0.32733734241107565, 0.2632729781588651, 0.10201272075793164, 0.005003889314895836, 8.10583172100263e-05, 3.042812755148003e-05, 0.17934081706949773, 2.099977556735762e-06, 6.922034647683577e-05, 7.884377919813609e-07, 2.1029000350116103e-06, 0.04102477316670575, 1.2796938867438462e-05, 4.711872456531647e-06, 4.4202265254099855e-05, 0.0, 0.010433234722007868, 1.6679867337596186e-07, 2.3788322204234074e-05, 0.0005731048533992827, 2.6709184244839726e-06, 2.115025877966592e-05, 0.15534604828228185, 8.24234136129819e-08, 1.3068337253702362e-09, 2.3771492631825087e-06, 0.21252020164821475, 0.0, 6.3843278803943315e-06, 0.0, 1.5632016310743996e-07, 4.19637494017629e-08, 0.0, 4.4547649667429583e-08, 0.0, 5.706138418676757e-07, 0.0029483284340184597, 0.0, 5.967525897143277e-10, 2.327729375715118e-05, 0.0, 0.20290704731972325, 1.0988195257695604e-05, 2.218684961052645e-12, 0.0, 0.000362834553747798, 0.5184022818331496, 1.9415177828110424e-09, 3.083039609843048e-10, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6534067467933637e-06, 0.0030912245025661957, 1.534932736039366e-05, 1.2725213332450073e-11, 2.0769899124765595e-08, 0.0004128314099995039, 2.2027967915886174e-06, 3.21687202763029e-05, 0.0, 2.0778626906258446e-07, 4.801405254658835e-05, 3.579572050284643e-05, 0.002275822912596308, 0.0145869673644274, 0.0, 0.9284164627867245, 0.0, 8.16636553077236e-09, 0.0, 1.0762985674801747e-07, 9.6140820266708e-15, 7.467287852087039e-14, 6.247324974504374e-09, 2.545331540667403e-13, 0.0, 3.487874451205796e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007507195158433541, 9.429519614382538e-13, 0.10285583742716621 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998973144999285, "peer_score": 24.622798024295662, "coverage": 0.9246758749726977, "baseline_score": 85.3853943613867, "spot_peer_score": 19.821520343117935, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 24.622798024295662, "baseline_archived_score": 85.3853943613867, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.821520343117935, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287929.734328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1117, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287929.734328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1117, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 46, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2546, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 2023, the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict remains complex and dynamic, with no clear indications of an imminent bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement. 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Maintained by the [*Bulletin of Atomic Scientists*](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock), the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was \"seven minutes to midnight.\" The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of the *Bulletin*.\n\nThe clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict. It now includes other factors, including climate change and \"disruptive technologies\".\n\nThe clock's setting is determined by the *Bulletin's* [Security and Science Board](https://thebulletin.org/about-us/science-and-security-board/), typically once each year in January. It is currently at [90 seconds to midnight](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the *Bulletin of Atomic Scientists* sets the Doomsday Clock to any setting fewer than 90 seconds to midnight, before February 1, 2024. If the clock is set at or above 90 seconds to midnight, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20750, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1705789530.919331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1705789530.919331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.555666776568045 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06839743125059906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7028684002941104, 0.0, 0.023564457318033017, 2.8760342223516648e-05, 0.0, 0.2325246904274491, 0.004498841700467464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030752469362819064, 0.012955155045536343, 0.00013743477079689506, 5.955370784733528e-07, 0.0, 0.44338304078991897, 0.0027417525500930936, 0.0, 0.00018250070810145802, 0.001310191238443052, 0.3457243728281662, 0.3741147584754343, 0.0, 0.007216668049164313, 0.0, 0.11579656523459822, 0.002608142164199298, 0.0, 0.041671450684493516, 0.4949788086009633, 0.5945047358516498, 0.0, 0.094564715248531, 0.014233588571305722, 0.3619592282195918, 0.6948599310242188, 0.0, 0.11688727860738232, 0.5773355757436016, 0.2996400473021779, 0.012470094397743624, 0.0, 0.3265158096988012, 1.2723534557863243, 0.1403060713961784, 4.038318628157938, 0.7463135563019072, 1.0883146968554722, 0.05427140127527919, 0.3843721305633043, 0.4709334976507153, 0.8045801532910326, 0.8894869809243865, 0.0, 0.21688388197816133, 3.042363618738901, 1.442488235339587, 0.0, 0.7494947017224501, 0.01753921869343806, 2.3878866338378937, 0.10717188951816123, 0.006117861355620733, 0.36168511554212923, 0.0, 1.3317778180898672, 0.00010199597321724216, 1.7519706502952976e-05, 0.010855932353736565, 0.12280051576958625, 1.3180864040688336, 0.0014612379512357343, 0.0007882537667074286, 0.9389399013668683, 0.0, 0.22565252105932815, 0.774196803764569, 0.16454944396421586, 3.9356651541030213e-07, 0.0, 0.00916740488958739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49055837160754184, 0.001627619607655691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033584577479117553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4161274941269475 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.150946418605173, "coverage": 0.9999693178371749, "baseline_score": -5.195182040184237, "spot_peer_score": 4.811376064213479, "peer_archived_score": 21.150946418605173, "baseline_archived_score": -5.195182040184237, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.811376064213479 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1705789530.961614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1705789530.961614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5441461176718275, 0.4558538823281725 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 513, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Much of the text from this question is taken from this previous question: [Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14601/bas-doomsday-clock-closer-to-midnight-in-2023/)*\n\nThe [Doomsday Clock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock) is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the [*Bulletin of Atomic Scientists*](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock), the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was \"seven minutes to midnight.\" The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of the *Bulletin*.\n\nThe clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict. It now includes other factors, including climate change and \"disruptive technologies\".\n\nThe clock's setting is determined by the *Bulletin's* [Security and Science Board](https://thebulletin.org/about-us/science-and-security-board/), typically once each year in January. It is currently at [90 seconds to midnight](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/)." }, { "id": 20749, "title": "Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?", "short_title": "Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?", "url_title": "Faithless electors in US 2024 Election?", "slug": "faithless-electors-in-us-2024-election", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T02:54:17.403750Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.419131Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-16T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-16T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-18T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 480, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "๐ณ๏ธ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20749, "title": "Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T02:54:17.403750Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-18T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-19T19:07:33.758287Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-16T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-16T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In US presidential elections, voters vote for [electors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) who then cast votes for the president and vice president. Typically, electors are pledged to vote for a specific candidate, but in principle it is possible (though illegal in some states) for elector to vote for any candidate.\n\nAn elector who votes for a candidate other than the one that they are pledged to is known as a [faithless elector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector).\n\nIn 2016, there were [ten](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_electors_in_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election) faithless electors, seven of which were not invalidated; this resulted in one electoral vote for Bernie Sanders, one for Faith Spotted Eagle, three for Colin Powell, one for Ron Paul, and one for John Kasich.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any members of the Electoral College vote for a candidate other than the candidate to whom they had pledged their vote in the 2024 presidential election, and their vote is not invalidated, according to reporting by credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20749, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734305275.243411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 478, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734305275.243411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 478, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40487181419749213 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.4173709604801866e-05, 1.8496328283904417, 0.001883254576873534, 0.018785877056782786, 4.855904892127449e-07, 0.5686989752800161, 0.0004279624373608124, 0.6298481313266769, 0.033661239227328346, 0.001982329699488675, 0.8109097645990473, 0.4122005876482475, 2.4305902342069385e-07, 6.353286620292343e-08, 0.0, 3.094754491586451, 0.0, 0.00038700729405214107, 0.9571658228718101, 0.0038444817670389097, 1.6625606337980485, 0.006117822792884463, 3.712931288348374e-05, 1.785038283284163e-07, 0.12375227718847354, 0.7340509969321904, 0.00019913112214941449, 0.6173031721559847, 0.015478170797629816, 0.0, 2.6989717078384756, 0.0, 0.037733182007268926, 1.2851512866338344, 1.09419711367681e-05, 1.695054746733081, 0.0, 0.05947457941648917, 0.12117842959569868, 0.7581222096731434, 4.098612464322871, 0.5728036912716306, 0.0017564079311874316, 0.9839738708147246, 0.34911818791176874, 1.1472296131000892, 1.4721333012534512, 0.00010912393395089411, 0.11959770591348048, 0.5267827742697593, 1.7481437439639795, 0.6562922430988531, 0.3932503010485793, 0.5827428752018597, 0.0, 1.9819526589426864, 0.6317980509130019, 4.787889187867965e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.028241067885962, 0.0, 0.17171302086791687, 0.40222270733029236, 0.4273861986437901, 0.28739087143045156, 0.4993977444070198, 0.01266504205242467, 0.44362429911041856, 0.15236312898342966, 0.7425470838911177, 1.3720336503264669e-06, 0.13641108330378757, 0.0, 0.0006822947475529267, 0.1560955191991415, 3.4060431762436624e-05, 0.44237748723727144, 0.0012119208592899315, 0.0, 0.33467492236559465, 0.006692213436393076, 0.20392050715965912, 0.0, 0.0047934759282063305, 0.038180835500422214, 0.023460412968987068, 0.02219826771936566, 0.0007194591617438648, 0.016502292769520085, 0.0015245034026894527, 0.0, 0.0, 6.056652475579938e-06, 0.0, 0.04651877021353497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02364753473135978, 1.1353646297504805 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 3.8793944170146686, "peer_score": 24.737054893411063, "coverage": 0.9998836885987598, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998836885987598, "spot_peer_score": 19.360307764628647, "baseline_archived_score": 3.8793944170146686, "peer_archived_score": 24.737054893411063, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.360307764628647 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289721.714895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 467, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289721.714895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 467, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6060313373369755, 0.39396866266302455 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 894, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In US presidential elections, voters vote for [electors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) who then cast votes for the president and vice president. Typically, electors are pledged to vote for a specific candidate, but in principle it is possible (though illegal in some states) for elector to vote for any candidate.\n\nAn elector who votes for a candidate other than the one that they are pledged to is known as a [faithless elector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector).\n\nIn 2016, there were [ten](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_electors_in_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election) faithless electors, seven of which were not invalidated; this resulted in one electoral vote for Bernie Sanders, one for Faith Spotted Eagle, three for Colin Powell, one for Ron Paul, and one for John Kasich." }, { "id": 20748, "title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?", "short_title": "Semaglutide Withdrawn in 2024?", "url_title": "Semaglutide Withdrawn in 2024?", "slug": "semaglutide-withdrawn-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T22:46:37.736122Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.752870Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 435, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "๐งฌ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, 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"exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20748, "title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T22:46:37.736122Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T05:01:18.795259Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2014, liraglutide wasย [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm)ย by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later byย [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes aboutย [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61375-1)ย [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158)ย of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\n\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs,ย [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726)ย another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses ofย [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.ย [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm)ย for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesityย [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It's marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\n\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it's reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly.ย [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)ย discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\n\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk ofย [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272)ย andย [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109)ย cancer in lab rodents. Yetย [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z)ย including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don't yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observationalย [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563)ย are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk.\n\nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutideย [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118)ย [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141)ย by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dyingย [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587(19)30249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing andย [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency withdraw approval for semaglutide (AKA Wegovy, Ozempic, or any other brand name for semaglutide) before January 1, 2025. The stated reason for withdrawal must include concerns of safety or harmful side effects.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20748, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735651748.142426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735651748.142426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.009999525800113922 ], "histogram": [ [ 24.381043114040523, 10.081986208953731, 2.810620693168957, 1.016975226954512, 0.14631040469266846, 0.6838792594896654, 0.21823748557505468, 0.012019034116643472, 4.436207827289842e-05, 0.0046026011993571085, 0.3033323377202894, 0.0005595886960511741, 0.10575904554379918, 0.002104813879278443, 0.002575460416851048, 0.06047761259778828, 0.02507962103290386, 6.319029179679161e-05, 0.01980618452926343, 3.545547274692338e-08, 0.029832754088746204, 0.021301121549675252, 5.485646953308483e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037849812584713734, 0.0, 0.00030010336138294144, 0.003164071972856757, 0.0, 0.005556073656237416, 0.004987331445329258, 0.0041023226340808445, 0.007339268458987869, 0.0003546088600470341, 0.003868830448416503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.251179865119903e-06, 1.057822696071232e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009399840550191683, 0.024174361182349842, 2.3440751020040532e-05, 5.245110624153645e-06, 0.0, 0.021450950539850078, 0.00015679999341773558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024893928544467083, 4.376245949434164e-05, 9.825180878529697e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005150976587841347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.632629336367782e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.498469955489839e-07 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.72976702830591, "peer_score": 12.995873942663923, "coverage": 0.9998882200945691, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998882200945691, "spot_peer_score": 13.15775773793341, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 96.72976702830591, "peer_archived_score": 12.995873942663923, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.15775773793341, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289022.773124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 425, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289022.773124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 425, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 771, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2014, liraglutide wasย [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm)ย by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later byย [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes aboutย [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61375-1)ย [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158)ย of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\n\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs,ย [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726)ย another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses ofย [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.ย [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm)ย for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesityย [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It's marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\n\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it's reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly.ย [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)ย discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\n\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk ofย [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272)ย andย [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109)ย cancer in lab rodents. Yetย [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z)ย including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don't yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observationalย [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563)ย are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk.\n\nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutideย [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118)ย [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141)ย by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dyingย [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587(19)30249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing andย [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563)." }, { "id": 20747, "title": "Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?", "short_title": "Bitcoin up over 2024", "url_title": "Bitcoin up over 2024", "slug": "bitcoin-up-over-2024", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:27:56.116921Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.905202Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 719, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "๐ฐ", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20747, "title": "Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:27:56.116921Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:50:50.047422Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with the [highest valuation](https://coinmarketcap.com/), increased over 50% from mid-October 2023 until late December of 2023. While Bitcoin is still short of its November 2021 high of over $64,000, the recent rally has renewed interest in cryptocurrency and left [some analysts](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/10/24/a-wall-street-giant-has-declared-crypto-winter-over-as-bitcoin-smashes-30000-and-the-price-of-ethereum-and-xrp-suddenly-soar/?sh=3a357ea2917f) wondering if the \"crypto winter\" is over.\n\nFor [reference](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/guides/bitcoin-price-history), from the start of 2010 until the end of 2022, Bitcoin's price increased 10 of those years and decreased 3 of those years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **YES** if the last measured price of Bitcoin (in USD) on CoinMarketCap on December 31st, 2024 (UTC) is greater than the earliest measured price of Bitcoin on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) on January 1st, 2024 (UTC). Otherwise, the question will resolve **NO**.", "fine_print": "If CoinMarketCap ceases to exist before January 1st, 2025, another website will be used to track the price of Bitcoin.", "post_id": 20747, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654573.009996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 716, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654573.009996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 716, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9751927577843702 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.020230636175932078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.863888372808807e-06, 0.0, 4.870386433684044e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015248947185328972, 0.0, 4.713112518974969e-07, 0.0, 1.0881280790352158e-05, 0.0005408379107764345, 8.363302715678605e-06, 0.0, 3.504919209180806e-08, 3.8958790102690986e-07, 0.00046352769023267704, 3.275353720799386e-05, 0.0007958051551714525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002564208483665526, 0.05036555991472637, 8.390202577012222e-07, 1.3529812756857763e-11, 0.0, 0.004802377952423413, 0.0, 7.291414382050814e-05, 6.5310767295062434e-06, 0.0014369647746524975, 0.001178512270837011, 0.0, 1.6412334389916562e-07, 0.0, 0.0011087325740990993, 0.02771141859479794, 0.000665453999634485, 0.0003537430697134818, 1.1510308770121853e-10, 9.431150157827552e-07, 0.0002650806788222581, 0.0813117281979668, 0.0011613451652209893, 0.0, 0.0016515397680654925, 0.07470028681580045, 0.01679733972445424, 0.0007471867878638488, 1.3824169756982492e-06, 0.00015287740213463337, 0.012239507317138052, 0.024164080732940085, 0.00040902245841872745, 0.0, 0.09012255480904043, 0.027878920598546512, 0.0009685769132091243, 0.026284274979805775, 0.001960913122143711, 0.0098490020574882, 0.15413995811538722, 0.13905256398173396, 0.0023345166008119722, 0.00803190125845117, 0.005811084278864932, 0.17282518025255555, 0.0010911201184881179, 0.0006658038214429311, 2.8255172486412594e-05, 0.0001309271685840951, 0.1479023266942385, 0.03995919934958739, 0.06622173093334666, 0.0035350066752022325, 0.08155789014563943, 0.47289558344962873, 0.11171450741343722, 0.03147821059393059, 0.10164403190528883, 0.1374604184573677, 0.2655362302929324, 0.24796779214326364, 0.17966148744642924, 0.11541320075550482, 0.23687523708406558, 0.5048967697672821, 0.3702362476777067, 0.16999340982422842, 0.1444096215825596, 0.518681303927357, 1.6164059001450535, 0.2906028671165175, 1.6767223727969727, 6.142823105093649, 37.37464671417828 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.77145502590972, "peer_score": 28.62449122024512, "coverage": 0.99993755872727, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99993755872727, "spot_peer_score": 7.068867950503453, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 70.77145502590972, "peer_archived_score": 28.62449122024512, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.068867950503453, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289791.820359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 700, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289791.820359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 700, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1296457595880568, 0.8703542404119432 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1691, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with the [highest valuation](https://coinmarketcap.com/), increased over 50% from mid-October 2023 until late December of 2023. While Bitcoin is still short of its November 2021 high of over $64,000, the recent rally has renewed interest in cryptocurrency and left [some analysts](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/10/24/a-wall-street-giant-has-declared-crypto-winter-over-as-bitcoin-smashes-30000-and-the-price-of-ethereum-and-xrp-suddenly-soar/?sh=3a357ea2917f) wondering if the \"crypto winter\" is over.\n\nFor [reference](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/guides/bitcoin-price-history), from the start of 2010 until the end of 2022, Bitcoin's price increased 10 of those years and decreased 3 of those years." }, { "id": 20742, "title": "Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach \"Oumuamua\"?", "short_title": "Rendezvous with Ouma", "url_title": "Rendezvous with Ouma", "slug": "rendezvous-with-ouma", "author_id": 116620, "author_username": "ใกใชใใช", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T15:56:03.136053Z", "published_at": "2023-12-28T20:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T19:15:26.225290Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-28T20:44:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20742, "title": "Before January 1, 2030 will any public or private space company announce plans to reach \"Oumuamua\"?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T15:56:03.136053Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-31T20:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-31T20:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Oumuamua is a first ever confirmed \"interstellar object\" to enter Solar system](https://www.ted.com/talks/karen_j_meech_the_story_of_oumuamua_the_first_visitor_from_another_star_system?language=en). It was detected by Hawaiian telescope PAN_STARRS2 on October 18, 2017 and was named \"Oumuamua\" which stands for \"advance scout\" in Hawaiian. \n\nHowever, the brightness of Oumuamua faded so quickly, that it became apparent that it moves really fast (26 km/s) and thus will relatively soon [leave the solar system never to return](https://medium.com/@astrowright/oumuamua-natural-or-artificial-f744b70f40d5). \n\n[Andrew Cote](https://twitter.com/Andercot) and [Tony Dunn](https://twitter.com/tony873004) have come up with a Project Lyra - [exploring the possibility](https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1734330667323052171?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email) of meeting this strange visitor from space. The idea is to chase Oumuamua using [a couple of hardcore gravity assists](https://twitter.com/tony873004/status/1732961608606056718), first sending a spacecraft to Jupiter, causing it to drop to the Sun for an Oberth maneuver.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if before January 1, 2030, any national space agency (such as NASA) or private space company (such as Space X) announces plans to launch a spacecraft with the goal to reach Oumuamua before it leaves the solar system. The precise execution of this mission can be different from that proposed by [Project Lyra](https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1734330667323052171?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email), just the objective should be the same - meeting Ouma. The mission itself can be scheduled for later, the question resolves if there is an official announcement or any type of public statement.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20742, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761506115.813332, "end_time": 1763693042.189997, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761506115.813332, "end_time": 1763693042.189997, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.036683419307666026 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.2095537278024917, 1.0, 1.2788480478551278, 0.2791006976425958, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288281.834178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288281.834178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9862650629418866, 0.01373493705811335 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Oumuamua is a first ever confirmed \"interstellar object\" to enter Solar system](https://www.ted.com/talks/karen_j_meech_the_story_of_oumuamua_the_first_visitor_from_another_star_system?language=en). It was detected by Hawaiian telescope PAN_STARRS2 on October 18, 2017 and was named \"Oumuamua\" which stands for \"advance scout\" in Hawaiian. \n\nHowever, the brightness of Oumuamua faded so quickly, that it became apparent that it moves really fast (26 km/s) and thus will relatively soon [leave the solar system never to return](https://medium.com/@astrowright/oumuamua-natural-or-artificial-f744b70f40d5). \n\n[Andrew Cote](https://twitter.com/Andercot) and [Tony Dunn](https://twitter.com/tony873004) have come up with a Project Lyra - [exploring the possibility](https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1734330667323052171?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email) of meeting this strange visitor from space. The idea is to chase Oumuamua using [a couple of hardcore gravity assists](https://twitter.com/tony873004/status/1732961608606056718), first sending a spacecraft to Jupiter, causing it to drop to the Sun for an Oberth maneuver." }, { "id": 20741, "title": "Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?", "short_title": "Apple Watch Ban Takes Effect?", "url_title": "Apple Watch Ban Takes Effect?", "slug": "apple-watch-ban-takes-effect", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T15:19:50.850296Z", "published_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.128406Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-26T18:00:00Z", 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"resolution_set_time": "2023-12-26T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to NPR](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/18/1220125508/apple-watch-series-9-ultra-2-masimo-patent):\n\n>In October [2023], the U.S. International Trade Commission [ruled](https://www.usitc.gov/system/files?file=secretary/fed_reg_notices/337/337_1276_notice10262023sgl.pdf) that some Apple Watches violated Masimo's patents for the the blood oxygen feature that Apple has included in most of its smartphone watches since 2020.\n\nOn December 18, Apple announced that it would [halt sales of the Apple watches](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import). [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import):\n\n>.The ban only affects the flagship Series 9 and Ultra 2 models. Since the Apple Watch SE does not have the SpO2 sensor, it remains unaffected. Previous models of the Apple Watch with the blood oxygen sensor will also not be impacted. The ITC ban also only impacts sales of the Series 9 and Ultra 2 within the US โ the watches will still be available for sale abroad.\n>\n>The patent disputes between Apple and Masimo have been thorny over the past few years. Masimo is most well known for its pulse oximeter. Masimo filed two separate cases โ one with the US District Court in the Central District of California and a second with the ITC โclaiming that Apple infringed on its pulse oximetry tech. This particular import ban is a result of the latter.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>Right now, itโs unclear whether the ITC import ban will stand. Itโs currently undergoing a presidential review period, and President Joe Biden will have the opportunity to veto the ban. Presidential vetos, however, are uncommon, though Apple has benefitted from them in the past. In 2013, former President Barack Obama vetoed an ITC import ban on the iPhone 4 and certain iPad models. That said, Biden chose to uphold another ITC ruling that would see Apple Watch imports banned over the EKG feature. The presidential review period ends December 25th, so weโll have to see if things change between now and then.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before December 27, 2023, credible sources report that the ban on imports of some Apple watches containing blood oxygen sensors has taken effect.", "fine_print": "* The ban on imports will be considered to have taken effect if the International Trade Commission order [becomes final](https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2310-006a_3.pdf), or in other words if after the presidential review period the President has not disapproved the order or if the President has affirmatively approved it.", "post_id": 20741, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703457379.819298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703457379.819298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9267860296365648 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028511763448086522, 0.0, 0.03913203907098744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30966205628112686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01644146499808245, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008023442444365229, 1.0468168270490275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5265764566181663, 1.0376619766251902, 0.0, 0.25470072851094916, 0.0, 1.4099174699753658, 3.0949924824689568, 1.9024969745834084, 0.0, 0.7203625667500725, 1.193198191459424 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.073161363047927, "coverage": 0.9995481820027032, "baseline_score": 78.10415587669213, "spot_peer_score": 12.066017296652715, "peer_archived_score": 6.073161363047927, "baseline_archived_score": 78.10415587669213, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.066017296652715 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703457379.841753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703457379.841753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.041326538260959333, 0.9586734617390407 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to NPR](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/18/1220125508/apple-watch-series-9-ultra-2-masimo-patent):\n\n>In October [2023], the U.S. International Trade Commission [ruled](https://www.usitc.gov/system/files?file=secretary/fed_reg_notices/337/337_1276_notice10262023sgl.pdf) that some Apple Watches violated Masimo's patents for the the blood oxygen feature that Apple has included in most of its smartphone watches since 2020.\n\nOn December 18, Apple announced that it would [halt sales of the Apple watches](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import). [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import):\n\n>.The ban only affects the flagship Series 9 and Ultra 2 models. Since the Apple Watch SE does not have the SpO2 sensor, it remains unaffected. Previous models of the Apple Watch with the blood oxygen sensor will also not be impacted. The ITC ban also only impacts sales of the Series 9 and Ultra 2 within the US โ the watches will still be available for sale abroad.\n>\n>The patent disputes between Apple and Masimo have been thorny over the past few years. Masimo is most well known for its pulse oximeter. Masimo filed two separate cases โ one with the US District Court in the Central District of California and a second with the ITC โclaiming that Apple infringed on its pulse oximetry tech. This particular import ban is a result of the latter.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>Right now, itโs unclear whether the ITC import ban will stand. Itโs currently undergoing a presidential review period, and President Joe Biden will have the opportunity to veto the ban. Presidential vetos, however, are uncommon, though Apple has benefitted from them in the past. In 2013, former President Barack Obama vetoed an ITC import ban on the iPhone 4 and certain iPad models. That said, Biden chose to uphold another ITC ruling that would see Apple Watch imports banned over the EKG feature. The presidential review period ends December 25th, so weโll have to see if things change between now and then." }, { "id": 20739, "title": "Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?", "short_title": "US Military Death in Red Sea Before 2024?", "url_title": "US Military Death in Red Sea Before 2024?", "slug": "us-military-death-in-red-sea-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T15:06:23.887551Z", "published_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.813772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:38:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20739, "title": "Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T15:06:23.887551Z", "open_time": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-21T21:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-21T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, Yemen's [Houthi rebels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement) have launched a series of [ongoing attacks on vessels](https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-ship-attacks-bp-yemen-houthis-dcece18717aa59648ff9a6b04fbc798c) in the Red Sea including [against US warships](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/03/pentagon-us-warship-attack-red-sea-00129789).\n\nIn response to the attacks, the [US has announced](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks) a naval protection force for merchant ships in the Red Sea. According to [reporting by the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks):\n\n>One analyst, Farea Al-Muslimi from the Chatham House thinktank, said they expected the Houthi attacks to continue for now despite the US announcement โ and that commercial shipping was likely to remain wary of using the Red Sea.\n>\n>โThe Houthis will carry on, they love attention and they have a wide degree of support in the Arab world,โ Al-Muslimi said. โSo far nobody has died as a result of the Houthi attacks โ if somebody is killed then there will likely have to be a response.โ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 20, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a member of the US military has been killed in the Red Sea due to an attack.", "fine_print": "* This does not include non-combat deaths, such as those occurring during training or by accident.", "post_id": 20739, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704062285.588107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704062285.588107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.028515438575922807 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.151463938956538, 6.601737801437974, 0.713350090193192, 0.007337775468663119, 0.1310919247987, 0.643928373539224, 0.014478081192727641, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003861035604651628, 0.0, 1.3816146935631877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008782752490162315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4050492315734713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005305652088145888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.995675551908137, "coverage": 0.9998483422522119, "baseline_score": 96.14748532270295, "spot_peer_score": 6.882115160376474, "peer_archived_score": 6.995675551908137, "baseline_archived_score": 96.14748532270295, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.882115160376474 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704062285.609412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704062285.609412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 238, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, Yemen's [Houthi rebels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement) have launched a series of [ongoing attacks on vessels](https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-ship-attacks-bp-yemen-houthis-dcece18717aa59648ff9a6b04fbc798c) in the Red Sea including [against US warships](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/03/pentagon-us-warship-attack-red-sea-00129789).\n\nIn response to the attacks, the [US has announced](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks) a naval protection force for merchant ships in the Red Sea. According to [reporting by the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks):\n\n>One analyst, Farea Al-Muslimi from the Chatham House thinktank, said they expected the Houthi attacks to continue for now despite the US announcement โ and that commercial shipping was likely to remain wary of using the Red Sea.\n>\n>โThe Houthis will carry on, they love attention and they have a wide degree of support in the Arab world,โ Al-Muslimi said. โSo far nobody has died as a result of the Houthi attacks โ if somebody is killed then there will likely have to be a response.โ" }, { "id": 20727, "title": "Zvรญtฤzรญ Donald Trump v prezidentskรฝch volbรกch v USA v roce 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "zvitezi-donald-trump-v-prezidentskych-volbach-v-usa-v-roce-2024", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ฤP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T08:43:46.057253Z", "published_at": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.900867Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-10T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-10T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odbornรฝ predikฤnรญ tรฝm", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ฤP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odbornรฝ predikฤnรญ tรฝm", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ฤP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 20727, "title": "Zvรญtฤzรญ Donald Trump v prezidentskรฝch volbรกch v USA v roce 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T08:43:46.057253Z", "open_time": "2023-12-20T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-21T21:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-21T21:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-10T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-10T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Na podzim roku 2024, konkrรฉtnฤ 5. listopadu, probฤhnou ve Spojenรฝch stรกtech ostลe sledovanรฉ prezidentskรฉ volby. V okamลพiku zodpovรญdรกnรญ tรฉto otรกzky nenรญ stรกle rozhodnuto ani o kandidรกtech, kteลรญ spolu budou o hlasy voliฤลฏ soupeลit, jelikoลพ jeลกtฤ neprobฤhly demokratickรฉ ani republikรกnskรฉ primรกrky, kterรฉ kvalifikujรญ kandidรกty do finรกlnรญho souboje o nejvyลกลกรญ post. Pลesto se zdรก, ลพe souฤasnรฝ vรฝvoj ukazuje pomฤrnฤ jasnรฝ scรฉnรกล toho, kdo se proti sobฤ v boji o Bรญlรฝ dลฏm postavรญ.\n\nDemokratรฉ pravdฤpodobnฤ do souboje vyลกlou souฤasnรฉho prezidenta Joea Bidena a viceprezidentku Kamalu Harris, na republikรกnskรฉ stranฤ si bรฝvalรฝ prezident Donald Trump prozatรญm udrลพuje velmi vรฝraznรฝ nรกskok pลed vลกemi svรฝmi soupeลi. Silnรฝ prvek nejistoty do tรฉto otรกzky pลinรกลกรญ aktuรกlnฤ probรญhajรญcรญ soudnรญ procesy s Donaldem Trumpem a jeho tรฝmem, kterรฉ mohou mรญt potenciรกl jeho nรกskok sniลพovat a nebo ho dokonce z boje o Bรญlรฝ dลฏm vylouฤit.", "resolution_criteria": "Otรกzku vyhodnotรญme podle zprรกv z americkรฝch mรฉdiรญ a volebnรญch institucรญ. 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The Superalignment team, formed in mid-2023, is a strategic response to the rapid advancements in AI. \n\nOpenAI, recently faced a significant leadership shakeup. Sutskever, serving as the chief scientist and a board member, played a pivotal role in the temporary ousting of CEO Sam Altman. This event raised questions about Sutskever's future role at the company. Although he was instrumental in forming the superalignment team and his contributions remain significant, his current status within OpenAI has been somewhat ambiguous following these events. [Source 1](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/12/14/1085344/openai-super-alignment-rogue-agi-gpt-4), [Source 2](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ilya-sutskever-man-center-openai-211351628.html).\n\n[Reports indicate that Sutskever has been less visible within OpenAI.](https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/ilya-sutskevers-team-at-openai-built-tools-to-control-a-superhuman-ai/)โ. There have been speculations about him potentially leaving the organization, especially considering the recent leadership turmoil and his hiring of a lawyer. However, his exact status and future role at OpenAI remain unconfirmed as of nowโ.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve YES if at the start of January 1st, 2025, Ilya Sutskever is still serving as the leader of OpenAI's Superalignment team. Further, it resolves No if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report he no longer leads it, and that credible sources do not indicate he has returned to lead it, as of the beginning of January 1st, 2025. \n\nThe resolution requires that Ilya Sutskever holds the leadership role specifically for the Superalignment team and specifically for OpenAI. The question will resolve Yes if OpenAI renames the team, but announces the team will focus on the same core set of responsibilities. \n\nLeadership is defined as having a primary and active role in guiding the direction, decisions, and activities of the Superalignment team. 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The Superalignment team, formed in mid-2023, is a strategic response to the rapid advancements in AI. \n\nOpenAI, recently faced a significant leadership shakeup. Sutskever, serving as the chief scientist and a board member, played a pivotal role in the temporary ousting of CEO Sam Altman. This event raised questions about Sutskever's future role at the company. Although he was instrumental in forming the superalignment team and his contributions remain significant, his current status within OpenAI has been somewhat ambiguous following these events. [Source 1](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/12/14/1085344/openai-super-alignment-rogue-agi-gpt-4), [Source 2](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ilya-sutskever-man-center-openai-211351628.html).\n\n[Reports indicate that Sutskever has been less visible within OpenAI.](https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/ilya-sutskevers-team-at-openai-built-tools-to-control-a-superhuman-ai/)โ. There have been speculations about him potentially leaving the organization, especially considering the recent leadership turmoil and his hiring of a lawyer. However, his exact status and future role at OpenAI remain unconfirmed as of nowโ." }, { "id": 20720, "title": "Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?", "short_title": "US Core Inflation Above 3% in 2024?", "url_title": "US Core Inflation Above 3% in 2024?", "slug": "us-core-inflation-above-3-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T05:18:13.225603Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.931756Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-16T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T15:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 434, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20720, "title": "Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T05:18:13.225603Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-16T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T15:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-15T16:00:09.065789Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. CPI data is released monthly by the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).\n\nIf the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\n\nBelow is a graph of the annual percentage change in core CPI in the US, seasonally adjusted, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initial estimate from each month.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1d3Hg&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if year over year core CPI inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) exceeds 3% from December 2023 to December 2024, according to seasonally adjusted data when first [published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20720, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735683016.380694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735683016.380694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6748556999042026 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.03391820040619096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003401008280285153, 0.0, 0.01009959186553306, 1.1424984562598079e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008545877931130009, 0.014268411560555215, 0.0007777783408671535, 0.0, 2.5319226122926687e-06, 0.005615288268378896, 1.3471177972452852, 0.00011670752008274445, 0.020417248284551087, 0.0, 0.3483275876008986, 0.13489039316898432, 0.012709987115011446, 0.0006718048758427134, 0.5992559149601072, 0.0, 0.6574700927032147, 0.011318806072060438, 0.014008135800409272, 0.15409015494799055, 0.3120494497078238, 0.32755586917509427, 0.005575505563048459, 0.0, 0.07697089880199401, 0.0, 0.5473229875039822, 0.0034410673650178097, 1.5786588737728407e-07, 0.02193953220482182, 0.0005998233109296253, 0.45638005880415594, 0.16749708878972297, 8.907664519238874e-05, 0.03859458278369052, 0.5463904507802686, 2.122176377584012, 0.0025421749847116056, 0.0, 0.5703360016187029, 0.04033197431694222, 1.4702312026231215, 0.5572369319456928, 0.3123461757850938, 0.0, 1.1106520922470913, 2.450434683233406, 1.6307337006139297, 0.873326765390902, 0.24467731686746486, 0.5037512269282025, 0.5523362835680572, 0.16420825381719162, 1.1983286456940805, 0.17830123418425306, 0.9803419552256474, 1.992732029793272, 0.2918463720875566, 0.9431461523072171, 0.8442731409257763, 0.7201385505977117, 1.7176594624270995, 0.0026637528787684175, 0.11236819555731582, 0.9662306026929895, 0.279045709810079, 0.2381971251162727, 0.03026198452275014, 0.516478659599744, 0.952920009022535, 0.0, 0.3093485153062174, 0.0, 0.005344603546106242, 0.0, 3.545547274692338e-08, 3.3273728311694146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6305157218130332, 0.8862359527469698, 0.0, 2.299655932262207, 1.1206076419470254 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 11.817708123858749, "peer_score": 23.2116305274731, "coverage": 0.9998770780377655, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998770780377655, "spot_peer_score": -5.005125945240453, "spot_baseline_score": -43.440282414577496, "baseline_archived_score": 11.817708123858749, "peer_archived_score": 23.2116305274731, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.005125945240453, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -43.440282414577496 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288740.261577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 432, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288740.261577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 432, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5594854543933244, 0.4405145456066756 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 924, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. CPI data is released monthly by the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).\n\nIf the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\n\nBelow is a graph of the annual percentage change in core CPI in the US, seasonally adjusted, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initial estimate from each month.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1d3Hg&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 20709, "title": "Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?", "short_title": "Will Type 1 diabetes be cured by 2032?", "url_title": "Will Type 1 diabetes be cured by 2032?", "slug": "will-type-1-diabetes-be-cured-by-2032", "author_id": 162060, "author_username": "davidarnalgar", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T01:30:45.113310Z", "published_at": "2024-04-05T08:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.444778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-05T08:26:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-05T08:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "๐งฌ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "๐ฆ ", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20709, "title": "Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T01:30:45.113310Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T08:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-08T08:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-08T08:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the pancreas produces little or no insulin, resulting in elevated blood sugar levels. Current standards of care involve insulin therapy and blood glucose monitoring but do not cure the underlying condition.\n\nPotential cures in development include cell therapies to restore insulin-producing cells, gene therapies to modulate the immune system, and approaches to encapsulate therapeutic cells. Several clinical trials are underway exploring these methods, with the goal of restoring natural insulin production without ongoing treatment.\n\nWhile progress has been made, an FDA-approved therapy definitively meeting the criteria for a cure remains elusive as of March 2024. This question asks whether such a curative treatment will cross that milestone by the beginning of 2032.\n\nReferences:\n\n- Stat News: [Two type 1 diabetes patients now freed from insulin shots with cell therapy, Vertex reports](https://www.statnews.com/2023/06/23/vertex-diabetes-cell-therapy-insulin/)\n- Medscape: [Beta Cells From Stem Cells: Nearing a Cure for Type 1 Diabetes](https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/993713)\n- UBC: [Stem cell-based treatment controls blood sugar in people with Type 1 diabetes](https://news.ubc.ca/2023/11/27/stem-cell-based-treatment-for-type-1-diabetes/)\n- Diabetes UK: [Arthritis drug could offer immunotherapy hope type 1 diabetes](https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news/arthritis-drug-could-offer-immunotherapy-hope-type-1-diabetes)\n- The Telegraph: [Cure for type 1 diabetes 'on horizon' after ground-breaking new treatment](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/type-1-diabetes-cure-ground-breaking-stem-cell-treatment/)\n- Medical News Today: [FDA approves first cellular therapy for type 1 diabetes: What does it do?](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/fda-approves-first-cellular-therapy-for-type-1-diabetes-what-does-it-do)\n- ClinicalTrials gov: [A Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Study of VX-880 in Participants With Type 1 Diabetes](https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04786262)\n- ClinicalTrials gov: [An Open-Label, FIH Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of VCTX211 Combination Product in Subjects With T1D](https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05565248)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2032, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves a treatment that meets the following definition of a cure for Type 1 diabetes:\n\nA cure reverses type 1 diabetes by restoring natural insulin production and normalizing blood glucose levels long-term without further insulin administration in the majority of cases. Specifically, the treatment must demonstrate sustained insulin independence and normoglycemia for at least 1 year in 60% or more of clinical trial participants. Treatments that just help manage the disease's symptoms, require continuing insulin therapy, or require immunosuppressants would not qualify as a cure.\n\nIf no such FDA-approved curative treatment exists before January 1, 2032, the question resolves as \"No\".\n\nIn case of ambiguity, the determination of whether an approved treatment meets the criteria for a cure will be made by referencing the published clinical trial results, product labeling, and other documentation from the treatment's manufacturer and the FDA approval documents.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20709, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759745016.973222, "end_time": 1763692945.181, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759745016.973222, "end_time": 1763692945.181, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19424928671965075 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0868647387074961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8502051036716036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3543173890644741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287844.99771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287844.99771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9460746362393749, 0.05392536376062505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the pancreas produces little or no insulin, resulting in elevated blood sugar levels. Current standards of care involve insulin therapy and blood glucose monitoring but do not cure the underlying condition.\n\nPotential cures in development include cell therapies to restore insulin-producing cells, gene therapies to modulate the immune system, and approaches to encapsulate therapeutic cells. Several clinical trials are underway exploring these methods, with the goal of restoring natural insulin production without ongoing treatment.\n\nWhile progress has been made, an FDA-approved therapy definitively meeting the criteria for a cure remains elusive as of March 2024. This question asks whether such a curative treatment will cross that milestone by the beginning of 2032.\n\nReferences:\n\n- Stat News: [Two type 1 diabetes patients now freed from insulin shots with cell therapy, Vertex reports](https://www.statnews.com/2023/06/23/vertex-diabetes-cell-therapy-insulin/)\n- Medscape: [Beta Cells From Stem Cells: Nearing a Cure for Type 1 Diabetes](https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/993713)\n- UBC: [Stem cell-based treatment controls blood sugar in people with Type 1 diabetes](https://news.ubc.ca/2023/11/27/stem-cell-based-treatment-for-type-1-diabetes/)\n- Diabetes UK: [Arthritis drug could offer immunotherapy hope type 1 diabetes](https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news/arthritis-drug-could-offer-immunotherapy-hope-type-1-diabetes)\n- The Telegraph: [Cure for type 1 diabetes 'on horizon' after ground-breaking new treatment](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/type-1-diabetes-cure-ground-breaking-stem-cell-treatment/)\n- Medical News Today: [FDA approves first cellular therapy for type 1 diabetes: What does it do?](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/fda-approves-first-cellular-therapy-for-type-1-diabetes-what-does-it-do)\n- ClinicalTrials gov: [A Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Study of VX-880 in Participants With Type 1 Diabetes](https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04786262)\n- ClinicalTrials gov: [An Open-Label, FIH Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of VCTX211 Combination Product in Subjects With T1D](https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05565248)" }, { "id": 20708, "title": "If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?", "short_title": "Trump on CO Ballot?", "url_title": "Trump on CO Ballot?", "slug": "trump-on-co-ballot", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T00:06:08.253076Z", "published_at": "2023-12-20T00:30:00Z", "edited_at": 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Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T00:06:08.253076Z", "open_time": "2023-12-20T00:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-21T00:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-21T00:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T18:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-16T18:42:18.584368Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-01T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court issued a ruling [barring Donald Trump from appearing on the state's ballot in 2024](https://www.sos.state.co.us/). In a [4-3 decision](https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/02nd_Judicial_District/Denver_District_Court/11_17_2023%20Final%20Order.pdf), \"โa majority of the court holds that Trump is disqualified from holding the office of president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.\"\n\n> โWe do not reach these conclusions lightly,โ [the Colorado majority opinion reads](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/colorado-disqualify-donald-trump-00132578). โWe are mindful of the magnitude and weight of the questions now before us. We are likewise mindful of our solemn duty to apply the law, without fear or favor, and without being swayed by public reaction to the decisions that the law mandates we reach.โ\n\nTrump vowed to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if:\n\n1. Donald Trump is the [Republican Nominee for President of the United States in 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n2. Donald Trump's name appears as the Republican candidate on the general election ballot used by voters in the the state of Colorado on Election Day, according to the [Colorado Secretary of State](https://www.sos.state.co.us/)", "fine_print": "If Donald Trump is not the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, the question is annulled.\n\nElection day is scheduled to be Tuesday, November 5, 2024. If the date changes to a different date in 2024, the relevant date for this question will adjust as well. If no election is held in 2024, the question is annulled.", "post_id": 20708, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725091487.085718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725091487.085718, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9637998947641269 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5340837426311843, 0.0005449586750005913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01188973027420671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002158319905362912, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008557061170913127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.270444297244818e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017495620653965728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00279130310708259, 0.005032122352993422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006359100333188915, 0.0, 0.008252777897596628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014823541668870482, 0.0019520333069512003, 0.0, 0.003825099866003063, 0.0, 0.0045822019105017245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02034849615368459, 0.0, 0.0044531010260122315, 0.021896605555686482, 0.00197367198112895, 0.003423546585154462, 0.5153077111341106, 0.10379551027528719, 0.19756391753823033, 0.010969196538715179, 0.6032524677049333, 17.77610478160205 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 94.98487430535002, "peer_score": 16.53499101243922, "coverage": 0.9999746136682994, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999746136682994, "spot_peer_score": 23.77900078618469, "baseline_archived_score": 94.98487430535002, "peer_archived_score": 16.53499101243922, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.77900078618469 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725178572.527781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725178572.527781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.004119521826204675, 0.9958804781737953 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 258, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court issued a ruling [barring Donald Trump from appearing on the state's ballot in 2024](https://www.sos.state.co.us/). In a [4-3 decision](https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/02nd_Judicial_District/Denver_District_Court/11_17_2023%20Final%20Order.pdf), \"โa majority of the court holds that Trump is disqualified from holding the office of president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.\"\n\n> โWe do not reach these conclusions lightly,โ [the Colorado majority opinion reads](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/colorado-disqualify-donald-trump-00132578). โWe are mindful of the magnitude and weight of the questions now before us. 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"2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-26T19:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Most of the world's largest [container](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_container_shipping_companies) and freight shipping companies [have announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/18/how-houthi-attacks-in-red-sea-threaten-global-supply-chain.html) that they will pause shipments through the Red Sea due to [ongoing attacks on vessels](https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-ship-attacks-bp-yemen-houthis-dcece18717aa59648ff9a6b04fbc798c) by Yemen's [Houthi rebels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement).\n\nIn response to the attacks, the [US has announced](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks) a naval protection force for merchant ships in the Red Sea, however it remains to be seen how effective the protection will be and how soon merchant shipping will resume.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 19, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a major shipping company from the list below will resume shipments through the Red Sea.\n\n* Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)\n* Maersk\n* CMA CGM\n* Hapag-Lloyd\n* Evergreen\n* BP", "fine_print": "* An announcement that shipments through the Red Sea will resume is sufficient, so long as it's not conditional on other developments and, if a date or resumption is provided, the stated date of resumption is before January 15, 2024. For example, an announcement that shipments will resume when there are no Red Sea hostilities would not be sufficient, nor is an announcement that shipments will resume if the United States or another country provides additional protection above what it has committed to.\n* An announcement must be unambiguous and convey a planned course of action. For example \"we will resume shipments this week\" or \"we plan to. . .\" or \"we intend to. . .\" would all qualify. Statements or announcements that express a desire or goal will not qualify, for example \"we hope to resume shipments this week\" would not count. Metaculus may make a determination regarding the language used, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** in the event an announcement or statement is unclear.\n* Only a qualifying announcement is required, whether a company actually resumes shipping as announced is immaterial.", "post_id": 20707, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056661.981796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056661.981796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9161717549229155 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.35736496982613525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.70552391225079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060796759684429505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006357209650978351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010582330593001173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022937907506089057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006875503728508481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008735776126710382, 0.0014460835021916812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.284342487489215, 0.0021782944378976117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006517222435612316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03794747724863474, 0.0, 0.0036512462649140286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004201224307447123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6768515194074236, 0.06441638085075145, 0.016830734531265112, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7049767818601071, 0.23030323687940146, 0.4327000768271672, 0.0404697691408491, 11.440944539801109 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.619259078332206, "coverage": 0.5389697986608912, "baseline_score": -30.318829991956644, "spot_peer_score": -0.11625819435126768, "peer_archived_score": 13.619259078332206, "baseline_archived_score": -30.318829991956644, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.11625819435126768 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703610473.213386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703610473.213386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.39806679004885803, 0.601933209951142 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 245, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Most of the world's largest [container](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_container_shipping_companies) and freight shipping companies [have announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/18/how-houthi-attacks-in-red-sea-threaten-global-supply-chain.html) that they will pause shipments through the Red Sea due to [ongoing attacks on vessels](https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-ship-attacks-bp-yemen-houthis-dcece18717aa59648ff9a6b04fbc798c) by Yemen's [Houthi rebels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement).\n\nIn response to the attacks, the [US has announced](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks) a naval protection force for merchant ships in the Red Sea, however it remains to be seen how effective the protection will be and how soon merchant shipping will resume." } ] }
