Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3280
{ "count": 5980, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3300", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3260", "results": [ { "id": 16729, "title": "Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?", "short_title": "Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023 ?", "url_title": "Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023 ?", "slug": "will-estonia-legalize-gay-marriage-in-2023", "author_id": 133711, "author_username": "Stilico", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-04T18:35:32.987878Z", "published_at": "2023-05-15T07:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.843874Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-15T07:14:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-20T11:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-24T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-24T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-20T11:50:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-15T07:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16729, "title": "Will Estonia legalize gay marriage in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-04T18:35:32.987878Z", "open_time": "2023-05-15T07:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-22T07:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-22T07:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-24T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-20T11:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-20T11:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-24T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-20T11:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Estonia had a general election on 7 March 2023, after which a new liberal majority coalition government was created. One of the points agreed upon was the reclassification of marriage as \" a union between two consenting adults\" . This naturally brings up the question, will Estonia's parliament actually legalize marriage between non-hetero people and also manage to do so in 2023?\n\nRelevant info:\nPolitico article about this (english): https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-kaja-kallas-government-coalition-agreement/\n\nCoalition agreement (estonian): https://www.err.ee/1608941486/loodav-voimuliit-avalikustas-koalitsioonileppe", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as a \"yes\" when a bill legalizing gay marriage has passed the Estonian parliament before 1. January 2024. \nMost official way to track this is via https://www.riigikogu.ee/tegevus/eelnoud/ that shows all legislation that the parliament is currently discussing and has passed previously. However in the event of that site not updating in time, just news of this legislation passing/not passing from several reputable news sources is enough to resolve this question.", "fine_print": "Notably, this question will be resolved as \"yes\" if the parliament votes for legislation approving the aforementioned changes to the concept of marriage. The legislation itself does not yet need to be in effect nor does it need to be approved by president. In fact, this question is still resolved as \"yes\", even if the president vetoes the bill, as is allowed by the constitution.", "post_id": 16729, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687256806.377836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.565 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8696637846936898 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687256806.377836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.565 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8696637846936898 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6986906553793839 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8117493037268142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40057203487275284, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11699856426331051, 0.7763909733759253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7346300790096757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.41424469996435287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0697448631166007, 0.6525656508175627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9019935026160222 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.033969094258023, "coverage": 0.16154288618856935, "baseline_score": 4.70650782998813, "spot_peer_score": 55.25054116749958, "peer_archived_score": 6.033969094258023, "baseline_archived_score": 4.70650782998813, "spot_peer_archived_score": 55.25054116749958 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687256806.40767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687256806.40767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3166331313589775, 0.6833668686410225 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Estonia had a general election on 7 March 2023, after which a new liberal majority coalition government was created. One of the points agreed upon was the reclassification of marriage as \" a union between two consenting adults\" . This naturally brings up the question, will Estonia's parliament actually legalize marriage between non-hetero people and also manage to do so in 2023?\n\nRelevant info:\nPolitico article about this (english): https://www.politico.eu/article/estonia-kaja-kallas-government-coalition-agreement/\n\nCoalition agreement (estonian): https://www.err.ee/1608941486/loodav-voimuliit-avalikustas-koalitsioonileppe" }, { "id": 16724, "title": "Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?", "short_title": "Hollywood Writer's Strike Active on May 12th?", "url_title": "Hollywood Writer's Strike Active on May 12th?", "slug": "hollywood-writers-strike-active-on-may-12th", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-03T21:32:18.273953Z", "published_at": "2023-05-05T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.780451Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-05T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-13T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-13T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16724, "title": "Will the writers' strike be active on May 12th, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-03T21:32:18.273953Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-06T15:46:20.746967Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-06T15:46:20.746967Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-13T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-13T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-13T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 3rd, Hollywood film and TV writers [went on strike](https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/may/02/hollywood-writers-strike-industry-effects) after the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers failed to reach a new contract agreement. The strike was prompted by streaming platforms shortening TV seasons and hiring fewer writers for briefer stints, and the shift to new models of consumption (like streaming).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the writers' strike is still ongoing at the end of the day on May 12th, 2023. The strike will be considered active if there is a work stoppage by the Writers Guild of America, including picketing or other forms of labor action. The question will be resolved based on reputable media reports, official statements from the Writers Guild and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, or other credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16724, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683953520.37061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683953520.37061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9374518064940371 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9845697500405015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014324495277256958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007029557643115203, 0.0, 0.015300328093018727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035718598937916577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022186213505800394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002935344639776382, 0.004813474943956401, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009702610500570075, 0.024056485682037533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003628506021698334, 0.06248957298788193, 0.0017636591650837267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037612450568242782, 0.008428407274953678, 0.0, 0.005034190088132767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4560985961896812, 0.09904065324864919, 0.0, 0.01187881693521917, 0.04816268109337523, 0.012051197561465337, 0.7663892589727923, 0.03772411052486093, 0.07891447195794807, 0.7632927949258754, 16.269162740424846 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.396565381047424, "coverage": 0.9993778108595909, "baseline_score": 80.39503403170906, "spot_peer_score": 30.49962946897203, "peer_archived_score": 12.396565381047424, "baseline_archived_score": 80.39503403170906, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.49962946897203 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683953520.392968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683953520.392968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04677280379480131, 0.9532271962051987 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 252, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 3rd, Hollywood film and TV writers [went on strike](https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/may/02/hollywood-writers-strike-industry-effects) after the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers failed to reach a new contract agreement. The strike was prompted by streaming platforms shortening TV seasons and hiring fewer writers for briefer stints, and the shift to new models of consumption (like streaming)." }, { "id": 16723, "title": "Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?", "short_title": "Ed Sheeran Liable for Copyright Infringement", "url_title": "Ed Sheeran Liable for Copyright Infringement", "slug": "ed-sheeran-liable-for-copyright-infringement", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-03T16:58:39.740501Z", "published_at": "2023-05-03T17:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.402200Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-03T17:34:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-04T17:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-04T17:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-03T17:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16723, "title": "Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?", "created_at": "2023-05-03T16:58:39.740501Z", "open_time": "2023-05-03T17:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-04T01:31:05.595597Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-04T01:31:05.595597Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-04T17:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-04T17:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-04T17:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1973, renowned singer-songwriter Marvin Gaye reached number one on the Billboard Pop Singles chart with \"[Let's Get It On](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Get_It_On_(song)),\" which he co-wrote with producer Ed Townsend. The hit established Gaye as an American music icon. Several decades later, English musician Ed Sheeran released his widely popular romantic ballad \"Thinking Out Loud,\" garnering similar chart-topping achievements in both Europe and the United States.\n\nControversy arose when the heirs of Ed Townsend, Gaye's co-writer, [filed a lawsuit](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/ed-sheeran-copyright-trial-heres-what-you-need-to-know.html) against Ed Sheeran, alleging that aspects of his song \"Thinking Out Loud\" copied parts of \"Let's Get It On,\" thus violating the heirs' copyright. They are seeking $100 million in damages. Sheeran has denied these allegations, arguing that any similarities between the songs result from the ubiquity of certain chords and chord progressions in pop music.\n\nThe outcome of this lawsuit could potentially impact the music industry and the way musicians approach the creation of new music inspired by older works.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as \"yes\" if the jury in the copyright lawsuit between the heirs of Ed Townsend, the co-writer of Marvin Gaye's \"Let's Get It On,\" and Ed Sheeran for his song \"Thinking Out Loud\" delivers a verdict in favor of the plaintiffs, finding that copyright infringement occurred. The question will also resolve as \"yes\" if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Ed Sheeran or his representatives agree to pay the plaintiffs at least a portion of the claimed damages. \n\nThe question will resolve as \"no\" if the jury delivers a verdict in favor of Ed Sheeran, finding that no copyright infringement occurred. The question will also resolve as \"no\" if a publicly disclosed pre-verdict settlement is reached in which Ed Sheeran or his representatives do not agree to pay the plaintiffs at least a portion of the claimed damages.\n\nIn the event of a mistrial, hung jury, a dismissal of the case before the jury reaches a verdict, or if a settlement is reached but is not publicly disclosed, the question will resolve as \"ambiguous.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16723, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683222417.888627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683222417.888627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.14189590087133264 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.650350915250193, 1.9914982628907192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18264215333895617, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8701864252891901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.6140996417412627, "coverage": 0.10915327098366034, "baseline_score": 6.435987929618173, "spot_peer_score": 24.170426850087395, "peer_archived_score": 1.6140996417412627, "baseline_archived_score": 6.435987929618173, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.170426850087395 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683220034.49165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683220034.49165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8832986223351458, 0.1167013776648542 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1973, renowned singer-songwriter Marvin Gaye reached number one on the Billboard Pop Singles chart with \"[Let's Get It On](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Get_It_On_(song)),\" which he co-wrote with producer Ed Townsend. The hit established Gaye as an American music icon. Several decades later, English musician Ed Sheeran released his widely popular romantic ballad \"Thinking Out Loud,\" garnering similar chart-topping achievements in both Europe and the United States.\n\nControversy arose when the heirs of Ed Townsend, Gaye's co-writer, [filed a lawsuit](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/26/ed-sheeran-copyright-trial-heres-what-you-need-to-know.html) against Ed Sheeran, alleging that aspects of his song \"Thinking Out Loud\" copied parts of \"Let's Get It On,\" thus violating the heirs' copyright. They are seeking $100 million in damages. Sheeran has denied these allegations, arguing that any similarities between the songs result from the ubiquity of certain chords and chord progressions in pop music.\n\nThe outcome of this lawsuit could potentially impact the music industry and the way musicians approach the creation of new music inspired by older works." }, { "id": 16720, "title": "Will China ban abortion and contraception before 2051?", "short_title": "Chinese Decree 770 Before 2051?", "url_title": "Chinese Decree 770 Before 2051?", "slug": "chinese-decree-770-before-2051", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-03T00:20:49.541552Z", "published_at": "2023-08-18T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:46:40.642639Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-18T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-18T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16720, "title": "Will China ban abortion and contraception before 2051?", "created_at": "2023-05-03T00:20:49.541552Z", "open_time": "2023-08-18T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-19T06:50:55.139630Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-19T06:50:55.139630Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Also see the companion question: [Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18383/chinese-forced-reproduction-before-2051/)*\n\n---\n\nIn 1980, the government of China implemented the [one-child policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy) in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the government's liking, as in [August 2021](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/china-scraps-fines-for-families-violating-childbirth-limits.html) all fines were removed and Chinese couples were permitted to have as many children as they liked. The reason for this is China's total fertility rate [falling to 1.08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Vital_statistics) in 2022. \n\nA prominent health official in Beijing has called for \"bold steps\" to [reverse this trend](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64594469). [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/upshot/china-population-decline.html) has begun speculating on how the Chinese government might reverse the trend as well. Fearing a situation like this, the government of the [Socialist Republic of Romania](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Republic_of_Romania) issued [Decree 770](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decree_770) in 1967, banning abortion and contraception in almost all cases. It led to the doubling of the Romanian TFR from 1.9 to 3.7 in just a single year, with the TFR [remaining above 2](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ROU/romania/fertility-rate) until the decree was abolished following the [Romanian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution) in 1989.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2051, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Chinese government has banned abortion and contraception in almost all cases.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question China will be considered to have banned abortion and contraception in almost all cases if reports indicate that abortion and contraception are only permitted if the life of the mother is in danger or for those who can show a high likelihood of passing on a genetic defect to their offspring.\n* If China no longer exists or has no successor at the time of resolution, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. For the purposes of this question, in the case of territorial disputes or challenges to China's legitimacy, a successor government will be recognized as one which holds over 50% of the territory under the de facto control of China on August 9, 2023, and whose political capital city is within that same territory.", "post_id": 16720, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757472390.198836, "end_time": 1778759134.470815, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757472390.198836, "end_time": 1778759134.470815, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12643258274506872 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.05707051708373777, 0.9548239045956517, 0.5857576454913802, 0.0, 0.19462653881470354, 3.4028248463730755, 0.0, 0.07184461761248319, 0.06327492015001017, 0.012311991125938967, 2.718869509401328, 0.0, 0.31473508132901346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6782416881858238, 0.5766688751576644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.627850362283306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19529391852860173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6167799948460655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08125654110596578, 0.0, 0.159228013413647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21562164146808224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009723111673611546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23761652173150052 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289669.290582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289669.290582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9636723939024321, 0.03632760609756794 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Also see the companion question: [Will China perform large-scale forced reproduction before 2051?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18383/chinese-forced-reproduction-before-2051/)*\n\n---\n\nIn 1980, the government of China implemented the [one-child policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy) in an effort to curb overpopulation. The policy worked perhaps too well for the government's liking, as in [August 2021](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/21/china-scraps-fines-for-families-violating-childbirth-limits.html) all fines were removed and Chinese couples were permitted to have as many children as they liked. The reason for this is China's total fertility rate [falling to 1.08](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China#Vital_statistics) in 2022. \n\nA prominent health official in Beijing has called for \"bold steps\" to [reverse this trend](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64594469). [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/upshot/china-population-decline.html) has begun speculating on how the Chinese government might reverse the trend as well. Fearing a situation like this, the government of the [Socialist Republic of Romania](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Republic_of_Romania) issued [Decree 770](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decree_770) in 1967, banning abortion and contraception in almost all cases. It led to the doubling of the Romanian TFR from 1.9 to 3.7 in just a single year, with the TFR [remaining above 2](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/ROU/romania/fertility-rate) until the decree was abolished following the [Romanian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution) in 1989." }, { "id": 16718, "title": "Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?", "short_title": "AI Time Person of the Year in 2023", "url_title": "AI Time Person of the Year in 2023", "slug": "ai-time-person-of-the-year-in-2023", "author_id": 114070, "author_username": "Trunton", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-02T06:58:50.002239Z", "published_at": "2023-05-05T17:42:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.735486Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-05T17:42:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T12:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T12:40:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T17:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 197, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16718, "title": "Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-05-02T06:58:50.002239Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T17:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-07T11:45:18.918680Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-07T11:45:18.918680Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T12:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-06T12:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-06T12:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 1927, Time magazine has annually chosen its [Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), who \"for better or worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year.\" While its choice is usually a human person, Time has also chosen inanimate objects in the past, specifically [\"The Computer\" in 1982](https://time.com/vault/issue/1983-01-03/page/1/) and [\"Endangered Earth\" in 1988](https://time.com/vault/issue/1989-01-02/page/1/).\n\n\nSince the release of ChatGPT, there seems to have been a significant increase in interest in topics related to artificial intelligence (AI). For example, [Google searches for AI-related topics have increased significantly](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%2Fm%2F0mkz), and [ChatGPT made it to the cover of Time.](https://time.com/vault/year/2023/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if Time announces that its choice for a Time Person of the Year in 2023 is AI. Both generic terms for AI, such as \"Large Language Models\" and \"Generative AI\", and specific AI systems, such as \"ChatGPT\" and \"GPT-4\", count toward a positive resolution.\n\nSince AI is not a person, it may not be called \"Person of the Year\", but something like \"Machine of the Year\", [as Time did after its 1982 choice was \"The Computer\"](https://time.com/vault/issue/1983-01-03/page/1/). In this case, this question resolves positively if a Metaculus Admin(s) can reasonably determine that the choice is continuous with what Time has chosen since 1927.\n\nIf the “Person of the Year” named includes an AI and a person or group of people, such as “GPT-4 and Sam Altman,” or “Open AI and ChatGPT,” in any order, this question will still resolve positive.\n\nIf Time does not announce a Person of the Year for 2023 at all before April 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16718, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701384141.536397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 197, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701384141.536397, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 197, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36318236054189423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.029004331645311406, 1.0808802607034225, 9.709338367232937e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22652470105660855, 0.0, 0.045914635170381406, 0.0, 0.019522963141105708, 0.3067006767502997, 0.0002432575786975352, 0.0, 0.9194414664940578, 0.0, 0.2820396541820055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21069618228825818, 2.3624023481929372e-05, 0.7867973420414855, 0.9653114280163154, 1.0025014659115368, 0.08893153115736602, 5.583954987620208e-05, 0.5237069466776173, 0.7166693760094534, 0.8427202727549202, 0.09072634696300813, 0.0, 2.027032638746369, 0.32863062993144104, 0.03644818730175165, 2.6564677822397718, 0.00032370794674281534, 1.4935011616212628, 0.0010867471651132465, 0.5604935200749575, 0.8220028724103063, 0.6222812584765807, 1.4770068562487337, 0.0233553539003043, 1.2349942914796659, 0.0013341373703413264, 0.0, 1.55201452914357, 0.10143584765337355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024932367630184762, 1.6209987792295633, 2.9529595148076767e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0261641793987444, 0.6067434301516297, 0.0007078071669076385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1880707129386824, 0.0, 0.007669395673034807, 0.016809779034163898, 0.0021087477868632033, 0.21318734840898443, 0.34505714638976637, 0.19671580586549667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.522415947009629, 0.7692080967595568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46975540502310686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005495047860758355, 0.0, 0.4811702352905574, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5634608306554246e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.844654248053318e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.858351283326629e-05, 5.928917857955002e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.44960530384194, "coverage": 0.9998283227567212, "baseline_score": 41.095263705742255, "spot_peer_score": -24.79809985494631, "peer_archived_score": 14.44960530384194, "baseline_archived_score": 41.095263705742255, "spot_peer_archived_score": -24.79809985494631 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701384141.590582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 197, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701384141.590582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 197, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7488069068742227, 0.25119309312577726 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 488, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 1927, Time magazine has annually chosen its [Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), who \"for better or worse... has done the most to influence the events of the year.\" While its choice is usually a human person, Time has also chosen inanimate objects in the past, specifically [\"The Computer\" in 1982](https://time.com/vault/issue/1983-01-03/page/1/) and [\"Endangered Earth\" in 1988](https://time.com/vault/issue/1989-01-02/page/1/).\n\n\nSince the release of ChatGPT, there seems to have been a significant increase in interest in topics related to artificial intelligence (AI). For example, [Google searches for AI-related topics have increased significantly](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=%2Fm%2F0mkz), and [ChatGPT made it to the cover of Time.](https://time.com/vault/year/2023/)" }, { "id": 16705, "title": "Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025?", "short_title": "SpaceX: Launch vs. Non-Launch Revenue?", "url_title": "SpaceX: Launch vs. Non-Launch Revenue?", "slug": "spacex-launch-vs-non-launch-revenue", "author_id": 110947, "author_username": "nextbigfuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-01T06:54:17.921354Z", "published_at": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.333315Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T09:29:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16705, "title": "Will SpaceX's non-launch revenue exceed its launch revenue before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-05-01T06:54:17.921354Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T19:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-04T19:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-04T19:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-01T09:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-01T09:40:01.501371Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) generates its income through various streams, the main one being launching rockets. However, it has diversified into other sectors, such as communications through its [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/) satellites, which also contribute significantly to its revenue.\n\nPayload Space, a well-known source for space industry analytics, has developed a methodology for estimating SpaceX's revenue details and consistently publishes updates. Their [February 2023 report](https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2023-revenue/) estimated SpaceX's 2022 revenue as follows: \n\n- $2.4 billion from launch\n- $1.87 billion from Starlink services\n- $325 million from other sources\n\nPayload Space's 2023 projections estimate Starlink revenue exceeding Launch revenue:\n\n- $5.265 billion from launch (projected)\n- $5.462 billion from Starlink (projected)\n- $825 million from other sources", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved using official SpaceX income statements, if available. Any yearly statement, whether fiscal year or calendar year, that shows non-launch revenue exceeding launch revenue will be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n\nIn the absence of official income statements from SpaceX which provide a breakdown of launch and non-launch revenue, or if only partial data is available, the latest [Payload Space](https://payloadspace.com/news/) estimates as of March 31, 2024 for 2023, and March 31, 2025 for 2024, will be used for resolution.\n\nIf Payload Space does not release any estimate beyond the February 2023 estimate, then the revenue per item for different types of launches and Starlink services used in the [Payload Space's February 2023 SpaceX revenue estimate](https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2023-revenue/) will be applied to the most recent current SpaceX data. The counts of [Starlink subscribers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) by type and the number of [launches by type](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) will be obtained from Wikipedia.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16705, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688133269.787777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688133269.787777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6447043047405404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43912522264278236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9592638368914898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.570987564786579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3792911289495212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.877086590409491 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 44.657025943601724, "peer_score": 5.977945476810628, "coverage": 0.9969346007784214, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9969346007784214, "spot_peer_score": 4.216214015827884, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 44.657025943601724, "peer_archived_score": 5.977945476810628, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.216214015827884, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688133269.803861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688133269.803861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2481678517117727, 0.7518321482882273 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) generates its income through various streams, the main one being launching rockets. However, it has diversified into other sectors, such as communications through its [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/) satellites, which also contribute significantly to its revenue.\n\nPayload Space, a well-known source for space industry analytics, has developed a methodology for estimating SpaceX's revenue details and consistently publishes updates. Their [February 2023 report](https://payloadspace.com/predicting-spacexs-2023-revenue/) estimated SpaceX's 2022 revenue as follows: \n\n- $2.4 billion from launch\n- $1.87 billion from Starlink services\n- $325 million from other sources\n\nPayload Space's 2023 projections estimate Starlink revenue exceeding Launch revenue:\n\n- $5.265 billion from launch (projected)\n- $5.462 billion from Starlink (projected)\n- $825 million from other sources" }, { "id": 16704, "title": "Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?", "short_title": "US-China Military Conflict in 2024?", "url_title": "US-China Military Conflict in 2024?", "slug": "us-china-military-conflict-in-2024", "author_id": 121476, "author_username": "d0g", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-05-01T00:35:28.303693Z", "published_at": "2023-05-05T20:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.018197Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-05T20:50:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:51:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T20:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16704, "title": "Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-05-01T00:35:28.303693Z", "open_time": "2023-05-05T20:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-06T12:15:54.669842Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-06T12:15:54.669842Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T07:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T07:51:47.987859Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[US-China relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have been tense in [recent years](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-china-relations) due to trade disputes, regional security concerns, and ideological differences. The trade war began in 2018, with both countries imposing tariffs on each other. The South China Sea has been a flashpoint for regional security, with China claiming sovereignty and the US conducting freedom of navigation operations. Ideological rifts include issues like human rights and democracy. Despite tensions, full-scale war would have severe global consequences. This question predicts whether active warfare between the US and China will occur in 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** based on two credible reports confirming that a military conflict involving direct engagement between the United States and China has occurred at any location during 2024 (from January 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024, both dates inclusive), resulting in at least 50 total deaths.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16704, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735695427.232941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735695427.232941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00730223756857595 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.171894287109657, 4.171306245726607, 0.5264168657636459, 0.14267401190121784, 0.11769900774096624, 0.0004466182328135157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022698410746859857, 0.0, 0.11173148889667735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001315880072289434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10371341395699357, 0.0, 0.0011276756507707527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0311439998759112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006727592223594752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001963403728513482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009587555935714907 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 99.05054705340264, "peer_score": 11.639037632441106, "coverage": 0.9999721637300439, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999721637300439, "spot_peer_score": 23.351502541771332, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 99.05054705340264, "peer_archived_score": 11.639037632441106, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.351502541771332, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287875.223828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287875.223828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 193, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[US-China relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have been tense in [recent years](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-china-relations) due to trade disputes, regional security concerns, and ideological differences. The trade war began in 2018, with both countries imposing tariffs on each other. The South China Sea has been a flashpoint for regional security, with China claiming sovereignty and the US conducting freedom of navigation operations. Ideological rifts include issues like human rights and democracy. Despite tensions, full-scale war would have severe global consequences. This question predicts whether active warfare between the US and China will occur in 2024." }, { "id": 16668, "title": "Will Alexei Navalny be released from prison before 2033?", "short_title": "Navalny Release Before 2033?", "url_title": "Navalny Release Before 2033?", "slug": "navalny-release-before-2033", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-30T09:08:57.143522Z", "published_at": "2023-05-03T23:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.832979Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-03T23:15:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-16T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T16:10:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-03T23:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16668, "title": "Will Alexei Navalny be released from prison before 2033?", "created_at": "2023-04-30T09:08:57.143522Z", "open_time": "2023-05-03T23:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-06T23:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-06T23:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T16:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-16T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-16T16:10:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist, has faced multiple legal challenges and imprisonment since 2011. In [August 2020, he survived a poisoning attempt](https://ge.usembassy.gov/putins-poisons-2020-attack-on-aleksey-navalny/) and was in a coma for several weeks. Upon returning to Russia in January 2021, Navalny was [arrested and imprisoned.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/17/alexei-navalny-detained-at-airport-on-return-to-russia) \n\nIn [April 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-court-imposes-unspecified-restrictions-navalny-network-2021-04-27/), the Moscow prosecutor's office requested to designate organizations linked to Navalny, including the FBK and his headquarters, as extremist organizations. This led to the dissolution of his political network and the eventual designation of these organizations as extremist by the Moscow City Court in [June 2021](https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2021/06/russia-aleksei-navalnys-ngos-banned-as-extremist-depriving-thousands-of-their-rights/#:~:text=On%20the%20evening%20of%209,Foundation%20and%20%E2%80%9CNavalny's%20headquarters%E2%80%9D).\n\nNavalny faced [additional charges in February 2022](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/alexei-navalny-13-years-more-jail-fraud), including fraud and contempt of court. On 22 March 2022, he was found guilty and given a nine-year sentence in a maximum-security prison, in addition to a fine. In May 2022, Navalny's appeal was denied, and he was transferred to the [maximum-security prison](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/alexei-navalny-has-gone-missing-from-russian-prison-say-allies).\n\nAs of early 2023, [Navalny is already serving 11-1/2 years in the IK-6 penal colony]( https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-navalny-faces-new-charges-after-prison-provocation-lawyer-2023-04-18/) suggesting a release in late 2032. However, according to Navalny, he might face more jail time in terrorism case:\n\n> Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny said on Wednesday that investigators had opened what he called an \"absurd\" terrorism case against him that could see him sentenced to an additional 30 years in jail.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** If Alexei Navalny is released from prison prior to 2033 based on credible sources. \n\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Navalny dies before 2033. \n\nIf Navalny is still in prison on January 1, 2033, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "In order for a release to count, it cannot be a short-term release, for example for the purposes of medical treatment. It has to be a full discharge from prison. Changes in prisons do not impact this question.", "post_id": 16668, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708099622.080849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708099622.080849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.1161056873819901 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.4850223472201876, 6.06410079108474, 0.0, 0.526247751814955, 0.37021219136041794, 0.09085472223259321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09722222970319579, 0.0, 0.14915465681439566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29220449018970057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22946702763934312, 0.0, 0.08590742488968683, 0.004409064241487278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46280702382059447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4191974676345277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2701166745210048, 0.0, 0.0027719772151930493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015028924156914286, 0.0, 0.013492534825694926, 0.162491984359063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04312588980096745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26520683406430967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1378885332432498, 0.010384267010212575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03950452060911081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016699727217022405, 0.012081759267939115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00908979551917782, 0.0, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010788274017922025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04701716540950928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19273628803510778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7517360712083688 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708099622.118609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708099622.118609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9373481693982789, 0.06265183060172108 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 201, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Alexei Navalny, a Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption activist, has faced multiple legal challenges and imprisonment since 2011. In [August 2020, he survived a poisoning attempt](https://ge.usembassy.gov/putins-poisons-2020-attack-on-aleksey-navalny/) and was in a coma for several weeks. Upon returning to Russia in January 2021, Navalny was [arrested and imprisoned.](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/17/alexei-navalny-detained-at-airport-on-return-to-russia) \n\nIn [April 2021](https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-court-imposes-unspecified-restrictions-navalny-network-2021-04-27/), the Moscow prosecutor's office requested to designate organizations linked to Navalny, including the FBK and his headquarters, as extremist organizations. This led to the dissolution of his political network and the eventual designation of these organizations as extremist by the Moscow City Court in [June 2021](https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2021/06/russia-aleksei-navalnys-ngos-banned-as-extremist-depriving-thousands-of-their-rights/#:~:text=On%20the%20evening%20of%209,Foundation%20and%20%E2%80%9CNavalny's%20headquarters%E2%80%9D).\n\nNavalny faced [additional charges in February 2022](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/22/alexei-navalny-13-years-more-jail-fraud), including fraud and contempt of court. On 22 March 2022, he was found guilty and given a nine-year sentence in a maximum-security prison, in addition to a fine. In May 2022, Navalny's appeal was denied, and he was transferred to the [maximum-security prison](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/alexei-navalny-has-gone-missing-from-russian-prison-say-allies).\n\nAs of early 2023, [Navalny is already serving 11-1/2 years in the IK-6 penal colony]( https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-navalny-faces-new-charges-after-prison-provocation-lawyer-2023-04-18/) suggesting a release in late 2032. However, according to Navalny, he might face more jail time in terrorism case:\n\n> Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny said on Wednesday that investigators had opened what he called an \"absurd\" terrorism case against him that could see him sentenced to an additional 30 years in jail." }, { "id": 16663, "title": "Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?", "short_title": "Italy's Credit Rating Becomes Junk", "url_title": "Italy's Credit Rating Becomes Junk", "slug": "italys-credit-rating-becomes-junk", "author_id": 139161, "author_username": "Zaldath", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-30T01:04:10.834501Z", "published_at": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.036342Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-18T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-18T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:12:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16663, "title": "Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-30T01:04:10.834501Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T23:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-01T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-18T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-18T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Moody’s, whose [next credit assessment on Italy is due May 19](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/italy-stands-moody-only-country-080000197.html), rates it at Baa3, one notch above junk. The outlook on that has been negative since August — a notably pessimistic appraisal of the country whose fractious coalition led by premier Giorgia Meloni took office almost exactly six months ago.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Moody’s Investors Service lowers Italy’s credit rating in its next credit assessment of the country, which is scheduled for May 19, 2023. If the credit assessment does not take place, the question will resolve as **No.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16663, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1684443307.744138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1684443307.744138, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10456851981254003 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6454430936411023, 1.3821195650744464, 0.09249024938796033, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5297188877790906, 0.4786067736705382, 0.806208236854164, 0.9696440728731098, 0.0, 0.9789012691545156, 0.3426424443372215, 0.8881248880778903, 0.3722069427882975, 0.2893506753269389, 1.1499430169994183, 0.2223942771812562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027134041465974392, 0.1391714993251316, 0.0, 0.002308706629581291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16871148880955214, 0.43513025900946883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2121734730732175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006275715278433752, 0.0, 0.20314358457038237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19398274424139245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023413487787231745, 0.0, 0.020064761700770095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04637161225326318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007946689641207845 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.00304170949301, "coverage": 0.9977111977564177, "baseline_score": 40.4698212834206, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 23.00304170949301, "baseline_archived_score": 40.4698212834206, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1684443307.759667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1684443307.759667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9843203153334134, 0.015679684666586608 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Moody’s, whose [next credit assessment on Italy is due May 19](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/italy-stands-moody-only-country-080000197.html), rates it at Baa3, one notch above junk. The outlook on that has been negative since August — a notably pessimistic appraisal of the country whose fractious coalition led by premier Giorgia Meloni took office almost exactly six months ago." }, { "id": 16642, "title": "Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?", "short_title": "Sweden's Loreen to win Eurovision 2023?", "url_title": "Sweden's Loreen to win Eurovision 2023?", "slug": "swedens-loreen-to-win-eurovision-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-28T20:02:32.320490Z", "published_at": "2023-05-01T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.140392Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-01T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-13T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-13T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T23:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16642, "title": "Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-28T20:02:32.320490Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T21:18:43.316209Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T21:18:43.316209Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-13T23:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-13T23:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-13T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-13T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Eurovision Song Contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest) is an international song competition organised annually by the European Broadcasting Union featuring participants representing primarily European countries. Each participating country submits an original song to be performed on live television and radio, with competing countries then casting votes for the other countries' songs to determine a winner.\n\nThe final stages of the [2023 edition of the contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2023) will take place in the United Kingdom in May 2023. Semi-finals will be held on May 9 and 11, and the grand final scheduled to be held on May 13.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the artist [Loreen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loreen_(singer)), representing Sweden in the contest with the song [Tattoo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3vJfR81xO0&ab_channel=EurovisionSongContest), is announced by the EBU or ESC as the official winner of the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest prior to May 20, 2023. The question will resolve as **No** if this does not occur for any reason, including if the contest is cancelled or delayed beyond May 20, 2023, or if Loreen does not represent Sweden in the contest. The question will resolve as **Yes** if Loreen is officially announced as the winner, and will not re-resolve negatively if the win is later rescinded, withdrawn, or otherwise annulled for any reason.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16642, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683970863.650693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.647 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683970863.650693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.647 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.353, 0.647 ], "means": [ 0.5697699914751277 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.002018898677062105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07812629904496614, 0.6788062773671363, 0.6384633727225171, 0.03492060446249783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06356310238128624, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0279215918046365, 0.0, 0.09559842707851815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45120860633737064, 0.6257203733096433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06449926113694789, 0.001469195406109808, 0.0, 0.14409911274774573, 0.03126931611125853, 0.13788721340005808, 0.029543207606411638, 0.04791750235716968, 0.10224333355391588, 0.5183295490595771, 0.0, 0.15653253442693307, 0.33905283347288273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08543252822519284, 0.0, 0.4527038901044533, 0.9038140370918123, 0.9387124664479816, 1.9430063621270053, 0.5441953838753619, 0.21564328479102138, 0.12168712976649625, 0.0, 0.6875011645777711, 0.0, 0.8807299230690194, 0.0, 0.009846599194668917, 1.1386231182703468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31508149791861734, 0.11161595350970598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038896999174760465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4837672471425741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23975409754196203 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 38.08028954247233, "coverage": 0.9993836932798114, "baseline_score": 5.938008162656247, "spot_peer_score": -5.283571667457047, "peer_archived_score": 38.08028954247233, "baseline_archived_score": 5.938008162656247, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.283571667457047 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683970863.67711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683970863.67711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41425823271596973, 0.5857417672840303 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 292, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Eurovision Song Contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest) is an international song competition organised annually by the European Broadcasting Union featuring participants representing primarily European countries. Each participating country submits an original song to be performed on live television and radio, with competing countries then casting votes for the other countries' songs to determine a winner.\n\nThe final stages of the [2023 edition of the contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2023) will take place in the United Kingdom in May 2023. Semi-finals will be held on May 9 and 11, and the grand final scheduled to be held on May 13." }, { "id": 16641, "title": "Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "US Financial Crisis before July 1, 2023?", "url_title": "US Financial Crisis before July 1, 2023?", "slug": "us-financial-crisis-before-july-1-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-28T18:04:54.725809Z", "published_at": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.967946Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T16:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T16:05:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 122, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16641, "title": "Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-28T18:04:54.725809Z", "open_time": "2023-05-01T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T20:58:53.724511Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T20:58:53.724511Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T16:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T16:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-06T16:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "When [Silicon Valley Bank collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_of_Silicon_Valley_Bank), the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) jumped to a value of 1.56, the highest value since 2020.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=12WiC&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>\n\nSince then, the Financial Stress Index has returned to typical levels, despite continued [challenges](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/first-republic-plunges-anew-amid-elusive-search-for-rescue-plan?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall) in the [banking system](https://www.vox.com/business-and-finance/2023/3/20/23648853/credit-suisse-ubs-silicon-valley-signature-banking-crisis) and [concerns](https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0e) about the risks posed by [Non-Bank Financial Institutions](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/04/nonbank-financial-sector-vulnerabilities-surface-as-financial-conditions-tighten#:~:text=Nonbank%20financial%20intermediaries%2C%20including%20pension,and%20thus%20supporting%20economic%20growth.), also known as \"[shadow banks](https://www.fsb.org/2022/12/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2022/)\". Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary during the 2008 financial crisis, recently [told](https://www.ft.com/content/a101d2c1-13b7-4a20-9e8e-38fb1d54723d) the *Financial Times*:\n\n>We can never abolish financial crises. They will always happen.\n\nThe [STLFSI4](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4) measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from [18 weekly data series](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/11/the-st-louis-feds-financial-stress-index-version-4/): seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators.\n\nThe average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a \"financial crisis\" is a value of the [St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4) (STLFSI4) of 1.75, a level that has happened four times in the last 30 years: the 1998 Russian Financial Crisis, after 9/11, during the 2008 Financial Crisis, and at the beginning of COVID lockdowns in 2020. The question resolves **Yes** if the STLFSI4 value is reported to be greater than or equal to 1.75 for any date between May 1, 2023 and June 30, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16641, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688135916.09042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688135916.09042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011939492563379847 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.740232298625918, 3.1452602993596104, 0.020216013348589298, 0.039787084440696, 0.9282903190229019, 0.8240517858773204, 0.000149338795229685, 0.0, 4.338655240952036e-05, 0.0, 0.7726219134989395, 0.0, 0.0002249551056478572, 0.0009856045077656645, 0.0005099186258927597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08197366253810018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002141215690394542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003205856696931407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03690551338857172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004399998258568811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00036025719240981866 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.32538897698703, "coverage": 0.9999841990903544, "baseline_score": 95.21524139825497, "spot_peer_score": -8.047138902551815, "peer_archived_score": 19.32538897698703, "baseline_archived_score": 95.21524139825497, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.047138902551815 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688135916.116531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688135916.116531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 354, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "When [Silicon Valley Bank collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_of_Silicon_Valley_Bank), the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) jumped to a value of 1.56, the highest value since 2020.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=12WiC&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>\n\nSince then, the Financial Stress Index has returned to typical levels, despite continued [challenges](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-28/first-republic-plunges-anew-amid-elusive-search-for-rescue-plan?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall) in the [banking system](https://www.vox.com/business-and-finance/2023/3/20/23648853/credit-suisse-ubs-silicon-valley-signature-banking-crisis) and [concerns](https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0e) about the risks posed by [Non-Bank Financial Institutions](https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/04/04/nonbank-financial-sector-vulnerabilities-surface-as-financial-conditions-tighten#:~:text=Nonbank%20financial%20intermediaries%2C%20including%20pension,and%20thus%20supporting%20economic%20growth.), also known as \"[shadow banks](https://www.fsb.org/2022/12/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2022/)\". Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary during the 2008 financial crisis, recently [told](https://www.ft.com/content/a101d2c1-13b7-4a20-9e8e-38fb1d54723d) the *Financial Times*:\n\n>We can never abolish financial crises. They will always happen.\n\nThe [STLFSI4](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/STLFSI4) measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from [18 weekly data series](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2022/11/the-st-louis-feds-financial-stress-index-version-4/): seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators.\n\nThe average value of the index, which begins in late 1993, is designed to be zero. Thus, zero is viewed as representing normal financial market conditions. Values below zero suggest below-average financial market stress, while values above zero suggest above-average financial market stress." }, { "id": 16640, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?", "short_title": "Non-US Frontier AI Lab before 2026", "url_title": "Non-US Frontier AI Lab before 2026", "slug": "non-us-frontier-ai-lab-before-2026", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-28T17:53:34.345319Z", "published_at": "2023-04-29T18:39:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.710867Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-29T18:39:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-06T23:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-06T23:37:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-29T18:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T07:35:02.412748Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T07:35:02.412748Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16640, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-04-28T17:53:34.345319Z", "open_time": "2023-04-29T18:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T18:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-06T23:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-06T23:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-06T23:37:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2e25 FLOP.\n\nAs of April 28, 2023, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI and Google Deepmind [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) (and possibly Anthropic, as the cost to compute [Claude](https://www.anthropic.com/index/introducing-claude) has not been publicly estimated). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Microsoft, Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nCurrently all four of these AI labs have their primary headquarters in the United States and not in any other countries. (Deepmind was HQ'd in the UK until the merger with Google Brain in April 2023.)\n\nThe fact that all frontier AI labs are currently in the US may mean it is easier to coordinate these labs to produce AI more safely either via public pressure, lab agreement, and/or regulation than if we had to coordinate frontier AI labs in multiple countries.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a Frontier AI lab outside the before January 1, 2026.\n\nWe define a \"Frontier AI Lab\" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, which as of April 2023 is GPT-4. For example, as of April 2023, a frontier AI lab would be one which has trained a model with more than 2e24 FLOPs. However, this threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nCompute levels will be established either per credible media reporting or reporting from a credible research institution such as [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) using a best guess point estimate.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a government project will still count as an AI company. If compute levels cannot be sufficiently established, this AI lab will not count towards resolution.\n\nIf a Frontier AI Lab is in multiple countries, it is considered first to be in the country with the location of its primary headquarters per credible media reporting and secondarily should that information be ambiguous or unavailable, the location of the plurality of employees will be used to determine the country. Should that information also not be available, we will resolve this question ambiguous.\n\nMetaculus admins may make reasonable inferences and use reasonable substitute information to resolve this question if the location of an AI lab is in dispute or if the Polity database is unavailable or if a credible research institution cannot be found.\n\nThe United States is defined as the country which has at least 50% of the de facto territory which the United States of America controls as of May 1, 2023, and the country which has its political capital city in that same territory. If such a country no longer exists before the resolution of the question, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 16640, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699433344.310666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.819 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699433344.310666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.819 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10999999999999999, 0.89 ], "means": [ 0.8775492165885656 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011970422053018563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1139394255878376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16871148880955214, 0.10626611084867746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009837259930117102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17042710568856717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023413487787231745, 0.0743529554125065, 0.052446473270009945, 0.0, 0.6555431069223722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06321382854186766, 0.23027762603635676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1832574916580254, 0.36156577650638777, 0.0, 0.0591057465619562, 0.6956811236098437, 0.26540318263127977, 0.035814214006338115, 1.1194599047086642, 0.0, 1.0669079375835615, 1.008059671697063, 0.04637161225326318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43776641345902195, 0.8986984862421243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7905955164555776 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.9239887036794047, "coverage": 0.13322890696751383, "baseline_score": 7.314742670308011, "spot_peer_score": 10.418977868173071, "peer_archived_score": 0.9239887036794047, "baseline_archived_score": 7.314742670308011, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.418977868173071 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693900248.782352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693900248.782352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.15069676072165628, 0.8493032392783437 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2e25 FLOP.\n\nAs of April 28, 2023, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI and Google Deepmind [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0) (and possibly Anthropic, as the cost to compute [Claude](https://www.anthropic.com/index/introducing-claude) has not been publicly estimated). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Microsoft, Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nCurrently all four of these AI labs have their primary headquarters in the United States and not in any other countries. (Deepmind was HQ'd in the UK until the merger with Google Brain in April 2023.)\n\nThe fact that all frontier AI labs are currently in the US may mean it is easier to coordinate these labs to produce AI more safely either via public pressure, lab agreement, and/or regulation than if we had to coordinate frontier AI labs in multiple countries." }, { "id": 16639, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?", "short_title": "Non-Democratic Frontier AI Lab before 2026?", "url_title": "Non-Democratic Frontier AI Lab before 2026?", "slug": "non-democratic-frontier-ai-lab-before-2026", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-28T17:51:39.037392Z", "published_at": "2023-05-02T18:39:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.519285Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-02T18:39:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-06T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-02T18:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T07:35:02.412748Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T07:35:02.412748Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16639, "title": "Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-04-28T17:51:39.037392Z", "open_time": "2023-05-02T18:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-04T18:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-04T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-06T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-06T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2e25 FLOP.\n\nAs of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [[source](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0)] Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nThe fact that all frontier AI labs are currently in democracies which may mean it is easier to coordinate these labs to produce AI more safely either via public pressure, lab agreement, and/or regulation than if we had to coordinate frontier AI labs in non-democracies. Will this convenient status quo hold?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a Frontier AI Lab in a non-democratic country before January 1, 2026.\n\nWe define a \"Frontier AI Lab\" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, which as of April 2023 is GPT-4. For example, as of April 2023, a frontier AI lab would be one which has trained a model with more than 2e24 FLOPs. However, this threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nCompute levels will be established either per credible media reporting or reporting from a credible research institution such as [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) using a best guess point estimate.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a government project will still count as an AI company. If compute levels cannot be sufficiently established, this AI lab will not count towards resolution.\n\n\"Democracy\" is defined as a country with a [V-Dem \"Electoral democracy\" score](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/V-Dem_Democracy_indices#Rankings) of >= 0.4 using whatever data is most recent.\n\nIf a Frontier AI Lab is in multiple countries, it is considered first to be in the country with the location of its primary headquarters per credible media reporting and secondarily should that information be ambiguous or unavailable, the location of the plurality of employees will be used to determine the country. Should that information also not be available, we will resolve this question ambiguous.\n\nMetaculus admins may make reasonable inferences and use reasonable substitute information to resolve this question if the location of an AI lab is in dispute, if the V-Dem database is unavailable, or if a credible research institution cannot be found.", "post_id": 16639, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699350455.405135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699350455.405135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8392200378849939 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07504299001539197, 0.005091871219889384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.18044206424386386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006447634808499139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2511238759100559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04255302797849524, 0.0, 0.022015505594186534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12126976048279545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033136279379270196, 0.5644485981864586, 0.0, 0.0376241220922931, 0.09244601710264838, 0.16947836752116327, 0.0833857067693185, 0.0, 0.38459879885134624, 0.0, 0.5205266298768673, 0.1368859382907578, 0.11291834007793779, 0.12443678207034711, 0.0, 0.35182353063490523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15032659043345778, 0.8656475924460829, 1.0104107786102972, 0.0, 0.32768716652500174, 0.0, 0.6078787105428978, 0.2636100582718002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1648228012086056, 1.2256919109624087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6541259978097677, 0.0, 0.5236874151830103, 0.0, 3.950487317077377 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.1655850112677673, "coverage": 0.13036075002109498, "baseline_score": 3.8640920455006, "spot_peer_score": -38.43668246507264, "peer_archived_score": 2.1655850112677673, "baseline_archived_score": 3.8640920455006, "spot_peer_archived_score": -38.43668246507264 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693899907.978017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693899907.978017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.29260002638632543, 0.7073999736136746 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Currently the largest model currently known is [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and while information about the compute needed to train the model is not public, GPT-4 [is estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/trends) to have been trained with 2e25 FLOP.\n\nAs of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [[source](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/2/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0)] Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.\n\nThe fact that all frontier AI labs are currently in democracies which may mean it is easier to coordinate these labs to produce AI more safely either via public pressure, lab agreement, and/or regulation than if we had to coordinate frontier AI labs in non-democracies. Will this convenient status quo hold?" }, { "id": 16638, "title": "Will \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" be mentioned in the UK Parliament in reference to Artificial Intelligence before 2031?", "short_title": "DMDU Applied to AI in Parliament by 2031?", "url_title": "DMDU Applied to AI in Parliament by 2031?", "slug": "dmdu-applied-to-ai-in-parliament-by-2031", "author_id": 143266, "author_username": "Will.Pearson ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-28T13:08:11.232299Z", "published_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T07:23:10.968213Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-15T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-15T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T07:35:02.412748Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T07:35:02.412748Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16638, "title": "Will \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" be mentioned in the UK Parliament in reference to Artificial Intelligence before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-04-28T13:08:11.232299Z", "open_time": "2023-05-15T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-17T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-17T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[\"Decision making under deep uncertainty\"](https://www.deepuncertainty.org/https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2) (DMDU) is a set of [methods and tools](https://www.deepuncertainty.org/) to help people do a better job of planning when they face a highly unpredictable future. Instead of relying on precise predictions, DMDU employs robust, adaptive strategies designed to [perform well across a wide array of potential future scenarios](https://toolkit.climate.gov/content/decision-making-under-deep-uncertainty). \n\nDMDU could be applicable when considering how strategies to mitigate AI risk could perform under a range of plausible future conditions. It would be particularly interesting if a government were to intentionally apply DMDU in planning for AI scenarios. Yet to date, there is no mention of DMDU in the UK parliamentary record.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the phrase \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" is entered into the UK Hansard, the official report of all parliamentary debates in the United Kingdom, in the context of a discussion about Artificial Intelligence for the period of May 9, 2023 through December 30, 2030. Here is the [relevant search term]( https://hansard.parliament.uk/search?searchTerm=%22decision%20making%20under%20deep%20uncertainty%22&partial=False&sortOrder=1) The question resolves **Yes** for any reference, written statement, written answer, petition, or other mention of \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" in the context of AI.", "fine_print": "- If the phrase \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" appears, but not in the context of artificial intelligence (e.g., in the context of climate change), that is not sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n\n- If the phrase \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" appears, but it is not clear if it is in the context of artificial intelligence, then the question resolves as **Ambiguous.**\n\n- Only the exact phrase \"decision making under deep uncertainty\" or the acronym DMDU are sufficient for a **Yes** resolution. Closely-related phrases such as \"decision making under uncertainty\" that are not explicitly referencing DMDU are not sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.", "post_id": 16638, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757920980.743697, "end_time": 1761060744.735099, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757920980.743697, "end_time": 1761060744.735099, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.46432193587133114 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288802.430759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288802.430759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7556596565147458, 0.2443403434852543 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[\"Decision making under deep uncertainty\"](https://www.deepuncertainty.org/https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2) (DMDU) is a set of [methods and tools](https://www.deepuncertainty.org/) to help people do a better job of planning when they face a highly unpredictable future. Instead of relying on precise predictions, DMDU employs robust, adaptive strategies designed to [perform well across a wide array of potential future scenarios](https://toolkit.climate.gov/content/decision-making-under-deep-uncertainty). \n\nDMDU could be applicable when considering how strategies to mitigate AI risk could perform under a range of plausible future conditions. It would be particularly interesting if a government were to intentionally apply DMDU in planning for AI scenarios. Yet to date, there is no mention of DMDU in the UK parliamentary record." }, { "id": 16619, "title": "Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?", "short_title": "2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks?", "url_title": "2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks?", "slug": "2023-world-chess-championship-tiebreaks", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-27T13:25:48.781503Z", "published_at": "2023-04-27T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.991831Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-27T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-29T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-29T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-27T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16619, "title": "Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?", "created_at": "2023-04-27T13:25:48.781503Z", "open_time": "2023-04-27T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-27T17:46:20.723900Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-27T17:46:20.723900Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-29T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-29T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2023 World Chess Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023) is a best of 14 games, plus tiebreaks if required. \n\nAfter 13 games, the score is tied 6.5-6.5. If the 14th game is a draw then the World Champion will be decided by tiebreaks which are currently scheduled to be played on April 30, 2023 if needed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any tiebreak games are played before May 1, 2023, otherwise it will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16619, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682757014.651591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682757014.651591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.49257715770960375 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2958909009490689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.249400422204275, 1.5968161256987008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 2.2472273754648406, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 53.82872888201718, "coverage": 0.9947169528105271, "baseline_score": -0.3540279912366223, "spot_peer_score": 46.175394906295395, "peer_archived_score": 53.82872888201718, "baseline_archived_score": -0.3540279912366223, "spot_peer_archived_score": 46.175394906295395 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682757014.66415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682757014.66415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47595445415974913, 0.5240455458402509 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2023 World Chess Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2023) is a best of 14 games, plus tiebreaks if required. \n\nAfter 13 games, the score is tied 6.5-6.5. If the 14th game is a draw then the World Champion will be decided by tiebreaks which are currently scheduled to be played on April 30, 2023 if needed." }, { "id": 16618, "title": "Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?", "short_title": "Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023?", "url_title": "Agentized LLM Improves self by July 1, 2023?", "slug": "agentized-llm-improves-self-by-july-1-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-27T05:24:52.074586Z", "published_at": "2023-05-03T18:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.473520Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-03T18:46:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-05T15:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-05T15:10:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-03T18:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 226, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T08:26:58.100421Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T08:26:58.100421Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16618, "title": "Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?", "created_at": "2023-04-27T05:24:52.074586Z", "open_time": "2023-05-03T18:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-04T00:07:55.320997Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-04T00:07:55.320997Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-05T15:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-05T15:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-05T15:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The emergence of [\"agentized\" large language models (LLMs)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogHr8SvGqg9pW5wsT/capabilities-and-alignment-of-llm-cognitive-architectures) such as [AutoGPT](https://github.com/Significant-Gravitas/Auto-GPT), [HuggingGPT](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17580), [Reflexion](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.11366.pdf), and [BabyAGI](https://github.com/yoheinakajima/babyagi) may be a significant focus in AI development's near future. \n\n\"Agentized\" LLMs use multiple LLM systems to construct a cognitive architecture, with each LLM instance assigned a specific role, such as determining goals or offering executive function.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, any agentized-LLM (along the lines described [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogHr8SvGqg9pW5wsT/capabilities-and-alignment-of-llm-cognitive-architectures)) such as Auto-GPT or BabyAGI, proposes a modification to itself that results in improved performance on tasks.\n\nThe system may generate the improvement autonomously, or in response to a prompt. The prompt must be general, such as \"propose some improvements to this library,\" \"improve your own cognitive architecture,\" or \"improve yourself by adding some memory to yourself.\" The prompt must not be specific (e.g. \"there's a bug in module X which causes an error - find it and fix it.\")\n\nAny improvement to the main codebase, libraries, and/or prompts that are part of the library will count.\n\nUpon hearing of an update that plausibly fits the criteria, Metaculus admins will sample three public statements from knowledgeable figures about the effect of the update and, if at least two of these express the sentiment that the update has improved the system's performance overall, the question will resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "A **Yes** resolution will not be triggered if the LLM finds an existing comment in the codebase and implements the proposal within that comment. A **Yes** resolution also will not be triggered if the agentized-LLM changes pre-existing configurable parameters (such as model name, model path, or model temperature). \n\nA **Yes** resolution will be triggered if the agentized-LLM introduces a new configurable parameter. For example, if model temperature wasn't configurable, and the agentized-LLM proposes making it configurable, that would be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n\nIn the case of ambiguity, a team of three Metaculus admins will determine what counts as an acceptable modification.", "post_id": 16618, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688145189.648529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688145189.648529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018780610062678272 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.571665335053064, 12.747254266236661, 1.6546265913731437, 0.8430440807513108, 0.5641879034546723, 0.7945064228731504, 0.08266751564884732, 0.019064752026884915, 0.044293333855342835, 0.0002144373940633772, 0.1895986508686664, 0.1264752456342142, 0.02544524637973159, 0.0012725242450309815, 0.001706958169865254, 0.031341887093194805, 0.0014431407467694374, 0.33124726452769704, 1.4227796138587015e-05, 0.0012418467804579335, 0.006423517619481664, 0.05825838857795312, 0.0, 0.17625018510481788, 1.8271085906415152e-05, 0.13025048396289823, 0.00010080279409370365, 0.0, 0.04746057875851042, 0.0, 5.8775012183730464e-05, 0.00037377073750699714, 0.0, 0.08395568144753693, 0.0010875393680778809, 0.0018709736160082767, 0.0005945081889946104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015196235594462366, 3.4270640151829415e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00045975025031393026, 0.006380105146345187, 0.0, 2.3129598626018023e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006960347989415724, 0.0, 5.342969097931567e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2170473762483146e-06, 0.012023819179639525, 0.0016108857252824312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009984984337256281, 0.0008283767912607746, 0.0, 8.042976873701615e-07, 0.0, 0.0001930510917566249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.4696004577198e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020844030721001074 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.750383638493904, "coverage": 0.9999000728557512, "baseline_score": 81.26663195885162, "spot_peer_score": -32.9299686379018, "peer_archived_score": 19.750383638493904, "baseline_archived_score": 81.26663195885162, "spot_peer_archived_score": -32.9299686379018 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688145189.679721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688145189.679721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 663, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The emergence of [\"agentized\" large language models (LLMs)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ogHr8SvGqg9pW5wsT/capabilities-and-alignment-of-llm-cognitive-architectures) such as [AutoGPT](https://github.com/Significant-Gravitas/Auto-GPT), [HuggingGPT](https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.17580), [Reflexion](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.11366.pdf), and [BabyAGI](https://github.com/yoheinakajima/babyagi) may be a significant focus in AI development's near future. \n\n\"Agentized\" LLMs use multiple LLM systems to construct a cognitive architecture, with each LLM instance assigned a specific role, such as determining goals or offering executive function." }, { "id": 16592, "title": "Will there be an open-source LLM with the capabilities of GPT 4 before 2027?", "short_title": "Open Source GPT 4 before 2027?", "url_title": "Open Source GPT 4 before 2027?", "slug": "open-source-gpt-4-before-2027", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-26T22:40:11.053166Z", "published_at": "2023-04-26T22:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.723541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-26T22:40:25.059322Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-21T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-21T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-26T22:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T04:28:08.227330Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T04:28:08.227330Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16592, "title": "Will there be an open-source LLM with the capabilities of GPT 4 before 2027?", "created_at": "2023-04-26T22:40:11.053166Z", "open_time": "2023-04-26T22:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-28T22:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-28T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-21T03:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-21T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-21T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) is a benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs). It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. \"Arena-ELO rankings\" are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. MT-bench scores (single-answer grading on a scale of 10) are computed by [fastchat.llm_judge](https://github.com/lm-sys/FastChat/tree/main/fastchat/llm_judge). The MMLU scores are mostly computed by [InstructEval](https://github.com/declare-lab/instruct-eval).\n\nGPT-4 and GPT-4-Turbo are the top-rated models across all three categories. As of December 2023, the top 6 models are all proprietary.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1 2027, the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), shows an open-source model with an \"Arena-ELO\", MMLU, or MT-bench greater than or equal to that of base GPT-4. \n\nIf the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard no longer exists or is not maintained, the question resolves **Yes** if there is an open source model that is widely recognized to be of similar capabilities to GPT-4 in the unanimous opinion of three Metaculus administrators.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16592, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713726225.926227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713726225.926227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9799586178929652 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027921591804636593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14409911274774573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005360898319852296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02749633268457083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005034190088132767, 0.015612556678154168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038896999174760465, 0.0, 0.04322127578775498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06449926113694789, 0.03126931611125853, 0.16242772345272571, 0.004137083572762841, 0.19443891355598886, 0.11154001336409483, 0.10224333355391588, 0.4120932731370195, 0.3917019996792684, 0.023525687209322816, 0.6218316723745888, 11.95285106085989 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.5163875788249546, "coverage": 0.2678422118326508, "baseline_score": 21.960325356823024, "spot_peer_score": -48.771562980809, "peer_archived_score": 1.5163875788249546, "baseline_archived_score": 21.960325356823024, "spot_peer_archived_score": -48.771562980809 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713340491.562555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713340491.562555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.035158555240063394, 0.9648414447599366 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) is a benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs). It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. \"Arena-ELO rankings\" are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. MT-bench scores (single-answer grading on a scale of 10) are computed by [fastchat.llm_judge](https://github.com/lm-sys/FastChat/tree/main/fastchat/llm_judge). The MMLU scores are mostly computed by [InstructEval](https://github.com/declare-lab/instruct-eval).\n\nGPT-4 and GPT-4-Turbo are the top-rated models across all three categories. As of December 2023, the top 6 models are all proprietary." }, { "id": 16553, "title": "Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?", "short_title": "AI Blackmail for Material Gain by EOY 2028", "url_title": "AI Blackmail for Material Gain by EOY 2028", "slug": "ai-blackmail-for-material-gain-by-eoy-2028", "author_id": 130060, "author_username": "zoehtwilliams", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-26T08:04:37.760505Z", "published_at": "2023-04-29T19:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T16:43:48.015269Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-29T19:14:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-29T19:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T08:26:58.100421Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T08:26:58.100421Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16553, "title": "Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?", "created_at": "2023-04-26T08:04:37.760505Z", "open_time": "2023-04-29T19:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T19:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T19:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning systems like ChatGPT and Bing AI are already being reported to display erratic behavior, including some reports of [threatened blackmail] (https://aibusiness.com/nlp/microsoft-limits-bing-ai-chat-generations-after-weird-behavior) They are also clearly able to affect human emotions, eg. see [this first-hand account] (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kQFure4hdDmRBNdH/how-it-feels-to-have-your-mind-hacked-by-an-ai) However, currently these behaviours don't seem to have been goal-directed or successful at achieving material gain.", "resolution_criteria": "The question posed here is \"Will an AI system be reported to have independently and successfully blackmailed someone for significant material gain by 2029?\"\n\nThis resolves positively if by Jan 1st, 2029 a credible source reports an AI has blackmailed a human in a way that meets the following criteria:\n\n* The AI was not trained to or directed to blackmail anyone by any actor.\n\n* The blackmail was a step independently decided on by the AI as part of achieving a larger goal or task, and helped it achieve that goal.\n\n* The blackmailed person was not the person who gave the AI the initial goal / task.\n\n* The blackmail resulted in an equivalent of $1000 USD (in 2023 real dollars) or more being lost to the person blackmailed.\n\nIf the above points are not confirmed by the source (for instance, the article author is unsure if there was a human directing the AI), this does not resolve as positive until some credible source gives high confidence in these factors.\n\nAs an example, imagine a credible source reports that an AI in charge of sending emails for a corporation with the goal of reducing client turnover, sends an email threatening to reveal personal data of a client if they do not stay signed up despite not needing the product anymore and this results in them transferring a renewal fee of >$1000 USD. This would resolve as Yes.", "fine_print": "Blackmail involves an explicit demand of payment or another benefit from someone in return for not revealing compromising or damaging information about them.", "post_id": 16553, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758594052.907985, "end_time": 1758722027.584358, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758594052.907985, "end_time": 1758722027.584358, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.6970296700048277 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11919235601565477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5992888955690151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0975061826010293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02074843352162435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06833212923320346, 0.9276423897690524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8794038869376134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24233740095005632, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 1.0552276359275043, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 1.6873303331496086, 0.0, 0.3325315572279212, 0.7382447754061062, 0.1045235772690511, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.15852765117742412 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287092.497124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287092.497124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.699030975930262, 0.30096902406973797 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 129, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning systems like ChatGPT and Bing AI are already being reported to display erratic behavior, including some reports of [threatened blackmail] (https://aibusiness.com/nlp/microsoft-limits-bing-ai-chat-generations-after-weird-behavior) They are also clearly able to affect human emotions, eg. see [this first-hand account] (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9kQFure4hdDmRBNdH/how-it-feels-to-have-your-mind-hacked-by-an-ai) However, currently these behaviours don't seem to have been goal-directed or successful at achieving material gain." }, { "id": 16525, "title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?", "short_title": "Adobe acquires Figma by end of 2023", "url_title": "Adobe acquires Figma by end of 2023", "slug": "adobe-acquires-figma-by-end-of-2023", "author_id": 122796, "author_username": "taylor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-25T15:25:12.116785Z", "published_at": "2023-05-02T19:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.386938Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-02T19:32:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-17T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-17T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-02T19:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16525, "title": "Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-25T15:25:12.116785Z", "open_time": "2023-05-02T19:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-04T19:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-04T19:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-17T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-17T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-17T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.\n\nSince then, reports have emerged that [the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-preparing-antitrust-suit-block-adobe-plan-buy-figma-bloomberg-news-2023-02-23/).\n\nAdobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe [no longer lists XD in its product lineup](\nhttps://www.adobe.com/products/catalog.html) and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Adobe announces that it has completed a deal to acquire Figma before January 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043528.966373, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043528.966373, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.020158970406442406 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.244245529448078, 2.4753527030600218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05224102104996991, 0.1792234681700318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23756650039894986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04535037156571558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0775030084782564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.0200067169715049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0876562031162544, 0.0, 0.05985794318764461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041793431363207664, 0.03353515913390628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01851233404845965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01644146499808245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005838829315397701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038586475818220903 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 33.74147383847002, "coverage": 0.9418098236317948, "baseline_score": 37.84450951614769, "spot_peer_score": 124.32338162113966, "peer_archived_score": 33.74147383847002, "baseline_archived_score": 37.84450951614769, "spot_peer_archived_score": 124.32338162113966 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702712879.983616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702712879.983616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9980516115423314, 0.0019483884576685993 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 118, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 15, 2022, Adobe announced an [agreement to purchase Figma](https://news.adobe.com/news/news-details/2022/Adobe-to-Acquire-Figma/default.aspx) for $20 billion USD.\n\nSince then, reports have emerged that [the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an antitrust lawsuit to block the deal](https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-preparing-antitrust-suit-block-adobe-plan-buy-figma-bloomberg-news-2023-02-23/).\n\nAdobe previously created a product which directly competes with Figma, named Adobe XD. As of April 25, 2023, Adobe [no longer lists XD in its product lineup](\nhttps://www.adobe.com/products/catalog.html) and XD is no longer available for download in the Creative Cloud store." }, { "id": 16519, "title": "Will the \"Limit, Save, Grow Act\" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?", "short_title": "\"Limit, Save, Grow Act\" Passes before May?", "url_title": "\"Limit, Save, Grow Act\" Passes before May?", "slug": "limit-save-grow-act-passes-before-may", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-24T23:40:12.178838Z", "published_at": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.679850Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-26T21:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-26T21:45:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16519, "title": "Will the \"Limit, Save, Grow Act\" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-24T23:40:12.178838Z", "open_time": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-25T20:11:55.291661Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-25T20:11:55.291661Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-26T21:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-26T21:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-26T21:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In his first major test as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy plans to hold a vote on the *[Limit, Save, Grow Act](https://www.speaker.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/LSGA_xml.pdf)* this week. The bill, which is not expected to receive support from the Senate or President Biden, would nevertheless be an [important step](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mccarthy-faces-first-big-test-speaker-defusing-debt-ceiling-time-bomb-rcna80691) to strengthen Republican's negotiating position over a final debt-ceiling increase.\n\nMcCarthy encountered difficulties securing the speakership and still [faces challenges](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/debt-limit-plan-house-gop-leaders-00093536) persuading the most conservative wing of his party to vote for the bill:\n\n>House GOP leaders are waving off calls from rank-and-file Republicans for changes to their debt-limit proposal. Instead, they’re plowing ahead toward a floor vote this week, daring detractors to vote against it.\n\n>At least, that’s what House Majority Whip Tom Emmer is asserting. Meanwhile, a handful of GOP members have told POLITICO they are still privately demanding changes to the bill and, without them, will lean toward voting “no” on the plan. And Republican leaders only have four votes to spare.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the *Limit, Save, Grow Act* passes the U.S. House of Representatives before May 1, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16519, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682546713.591671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682546713.591671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.7779138530847803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.4230528405615187, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.29801254725369025, 0.0, 0.4512058906735414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.4882994062927973, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 2.4750620703361736 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.813485854360329, "coverage": 0.279332353802331, "baseline_score": 3.718084671451454, "spot_peer_score": 10.44567390379157, "peer_archived_score": 3.813485854360329, "baseline_archived_score": 3.718084671451454, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.44567390379157 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682544133.832686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682544133.832686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.27667380759023963, 0.7233261924097604 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In his first major test as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy plans to hold a vote on the *[Limit, Save, Grow Act](https://www.speaker.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/LSGA_xml.pdf)* this week. The bill, which is not expected to receive support from the Senate or President Biden, would nevertheless be an [important step](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/mccarthy-faces-first-big-test-speaker-defusing-debt-ceiling-time-bomb-rcna80691) to strengthen Republican's negotiating position over a final debt-ceiling increase.\n\nMcCarthy encountered difficulties securing the speakership and still [faces challenges](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/04/24/debt-limit-plan-house-gop-leaders-00093536) persuading the most conservative wing of his party to vote for the bill:\n\n>House GOP leaders are waving off calls from rank-and-file Republicans for changes to their debt-limit proposal. Instead, they’re plowing ahead toward a floor vote this week, daring detractors to vote against it.\n\n>At least, that’s what House Majority Whip Tom Emmer is asserting. Meanwhile, a handful of GOP members have told POLITICO they are still privately demanding changes to the bill and, without them, will lean toward voting “no” on the plan. And Republican leaders only have four votes to spare." } ] }
