Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3300
{ "count": 5980, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3320", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3280", "results": [ { "id": 16517, "title": "Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?", "url_title": "U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?", "slug": "us-debt-default-before-july-1-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-24T23:27:19.980270Z", "published_at": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.256590Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:02:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 304, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16517, "title": "Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-24T23:27:19.980270Z", "open_time": "2023-04-25T01:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-25T12:38:04.946840Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-25T12:38:04.946840Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T16:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [U.S. debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling) is a statutory limit set by Congress on the amount of national debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. When the government approaches the debt ceiling, it must either seek an increase in the limit from Congress or take measures to reduce its borrowing.\n\nIn the past, the U.S. has come close to breaching the debt ceiling on [several occasions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling), and in some cases, the government has temporarily suspended the limit or taken other measures to avoid default.\n\nThe US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. [This Reason article](https://reason.com/2021/11/19/no-the-united-states-has-not-always-paid-its-debts/) describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and [this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704) explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 \"mini-default\", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:\n\n>The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.\n\nRegarding the 1979 \"mini-default\" CRS says:\n\n>Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-debt-ceiling-deadline-could-be-sooner-than-anticipated-banks-warn-2023-04-18/), the deadline for a debt ceiling increase could come earlier than expected:\n\n>The U.S. government's deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling could be sooner than expected, raising the prospect of a short-term debt limit extension, analysts said on Tuesday.\n\n>Goldman Sachs analysts said weak tax collections so far in April indicate a higher probability that the so-called \"X-date,\" when the government is no longer able to pay all its bills, would be reached in the first half of June. Analysts at Citi said they expected a short-term deal in June or July.\n\n>The Treasury Department has warned that the federal government could reach the moment when it will no longer be able to meet its financial obligations as early as June 5, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has forecast that moment would come sometime between July and September.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2023, the President or Secretary of the Treasury announces that the US has defaulted payment on any of its sovereign debt obligations; OR any of the three major credit ratings agencies (Standard & Poors, Fitch, and Moody's) announce US has defaulted payment on any of its sovereign debt obligations.\n\nMoody's, for example, [defines a sovereign issuer as in default when](https://www.moodys.com/sites/products/defaultresearch/2005600000424157.pdf) one or more of the following conditions are met:\n\n> * 1) There is a missed or delayed disbursement of interest and/or principal, even if the delayed payment is made within the grace period, if any.\n\n> * 2) A distressed exchange occurs, where:\n\n> > * a) The issuer offers bondholders a new security or package of securities that amount to a diminished financial obligation such as new debt instruments with lower coupon or par value.\n\n> > * b) The exchange had the apparent purpose of helping the borrower avoid a \"stronger\" event of default (such as a missed interest or principal payment)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16517, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688180489.757149, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688180489.757149, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.011448294833877435 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.92530778193136, 10.585328010234583, 0.12525453200355746, 0.7055787978821957, 0.03259234133516352, 0.19874642646748197, 0.0022354451137932977, 0.005366481344680499, 0.002194310784450392, 0.00047908236692256365, 0.08005320405684221, 0.2780091220336411, 0.0, 0.004516104412042929, 0.005825692766953081, 0.0, 0.00011518218003984016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033854933080465555, 0.0, 0.14317861254685807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05999690021621453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938680368485329, 0.0, 0.0015320560471070819, 0.0, 0.007705732980876355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.03736902912496e-05, 0.0, 0.19092741752760573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.038095196068415e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011609489799718003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004543756458091191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.101821810183583e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.962481962683547, "coverage": 0.9982958940558723, "baseline_score": 97.69934345541041, "spot_peer_score": 1.2614491968637898, "peer_archived_score": 4.962481962683547, "baseline_archived_score": 97.69934345541041, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2614491968637898 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688180489.801758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688180489.801758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 304, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 762, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [U.S. debt ceiling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_debt_ceiling) is a statutory limit set by Congress on the amount of national debt that the federal government is allowed to incur. When the government approaches the debt ceiling, it must either seek an increase in the limit from Congress or take measures to reduce its borrowing.\n\nIn the past, the U.S. has come close to breaching the debt ceiling on [several occasions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_debt_ceiling), and in some cases, the government has temporarily suspended the limit or taken other measures to avoid default.\n\nThe US has failed to pay debt obligations on time on several occasions. [This Reason article](https://reason.com/2021/11/19/no-the-united-states-has-not-always-paid-its-debts/) describes five cases which could be characterized as default, and [this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704) explores three of them in more detail. The most recent occurrence was the 1979 \"mini-default\", when a technical error led to the late payment to holders of Treasury securities. CRS says the following about the overall record of US debt repayment:\n\n>The historical record appears not to support the contention that the U.S. government has had an unblemished payment record since its origin. Under any reasonable definition of default, the federal government defaulted in 1814. The Treasury Secretary of the time, Alexander Dallas, referred to “every sort of embarrassment.” The current website of the U.S. Treasury notes that Secretary Dallas faced a “bankrupt” Treasury. The failure of the Treasury to pay interest on its securities due to Boston banks in 1814 represents an unambiguous default event.\n\nRegarding the 1979 \"mini-default\" CRS says:\n\n>Claims that payment delays to small investors holding Treasury securities in the spring of 1979 constituted a default or a “technical default” appear weaker. Delays affected only a relatively small proportion of Treasury securities and the federal government responded to mitigate the inconvenience suffered by those investors. The legal document setting out terms for Treasury securities contained no default clause.\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-debt-ceiling-deadline-could-be-sooner-than-anticipated-banks-warn-2023-04-18/), the deadline for a debt ceiling increase could come earlier than expected:\n\n>The U.S. government's deadline to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling could be sooner than expected, raising the prospect of a short-term debt limit extension, analysts said on Tuesday.\n\n>Goldman Sachs analysts said weak tax collections so far in April indicate a higher probability that the so-called \"X-date,\" when the government is no longer able to pay all its bills, would be reached in the first half of June. Analysts at Citi said they expected a short-term deal in June or July.\n\n>The Treasury Department has warned that the federal government could reach the moment when it will no longer be able to meet its financial obligations as early as June 5, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has forecast that moment would come sometime between July and September." }, { "id": 16514, "title": "Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?", "short_title": "First-Time Finalist wins 2023 Pulitzer Prize?", "url_title": "First-Time Finalist wins 2023 Pulitzer Prize?", "slug": "first-time-finalist-wins-2023-pulitzer-prize", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-24T21:10:13.546416Z", "published_at": "2023-04-27T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.835471Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-27T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-04T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-04T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-08T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-08T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-27T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2220, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q2 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Variant_2_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T21:03:32Z", "close_date": "2023-07-05T21:17:49Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:33:18.983550Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16514, "title": "Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?", "created_at": "2023-04-24T21:10:13.546416Z", "open_time": "2023-04-27T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-28T09:14:19.512904Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-28T09:14:19.512904Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-08T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-08T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-08T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-04T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-04T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Pulitzer Prize for Fiction](https://www.pulitzer.org/prize-winners-by-category/219) is a prestigious annual award that recognizes outstanding literary works of fiction by American authors, typically dealing with American life. Established in 1917 by the provisions in the will of Joseph Pulitzer, a Hungarian-American newspaper publisher, the award has become a significant milestone in the careers of many acclaimed writers. The winner is chosen by a 17-member board, comprising distinguished journalists, academics, and literary figures, who evaluate the submissions based on their artistic merit, thematic relevance, and cultural impact.\n\nPredicting the winner of the Pulitzer Prize is [difficult](https://supposedlyfun.com/2023/03/23/pulitzer-prize-predictions-for-fiction-2023/). Unlike other awards, there is no shortlist and finalists are not announced ahead of time.\n\nRepeat winners are rare. There have only been four, most recently Colson Whitehead, who won in 2017 for *The Underground Railroad* and again in 2020 for *The Nickel Boys*.\n\nIt's more common for winners to be previous finalists. For instance, 2021's winner, Louise Erdich, was a finalist in 2009, and 2019's winner, Richard Power, was a finalist in 2007.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction has not [previously won or been a finalist for](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pulitzer_Prize_for_Fiction) a Pulitzer Prize for Fiction.", "fine_print": "In the event there is no Pulitzer Prize for Fiction winner in 2023, this question will be annulled.\n\nIn the event that there are multiple winners, this question will resolve as **Yes** if all winners are first-time finalists, **No** if all winners are previous finalists or winners, and **Ambiguous** if it's a mixture.", "post_id": 16514, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683209771.02076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.591 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683209771.02076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.591 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6894601539842056 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36530671002920095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034166571748472256, 0.015789022061289532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08513379411538498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012756731128426116, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5967938669577817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004168619742933615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9844469097226116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3308170033923837, 0.0, 0.22162217326928574, 0.6706770209140733, 0.39805259428956524, 0.0, 0.8766114663864937, 1.3076996455552643, 0.04840306567371073, 0.20274572289943904, 0.0991598257291094, 0.7103861078004025, 0.3344850725282582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21407359727653627, 1.0498528260163433, 0.08505026896199637, 0.6319212255249617, 0.24797248793215781, 0.04445312502789519, 0.14309136881469264, 0.8984233201030368, 0.6198453139833793, 0.0, 0.5337192026378806, 0.0, 0.1591327848427104, 0.0, 0.1893492622778734, 0.3429179627815088, 1.0182893651997564, 0.28276866264047956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954265019863794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6195547260486909 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.826011749786062, "coverage": 0.9995808143566842, "baseline_score": -38.90247473196762, "spot_peer_score": 32.83005323673256, "peer_archived_score": 23.826011749786062, "baseline_archived_score": -38.90247473196762, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.83005323673256 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1683209771.034936, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1683209771.034936, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2776100705771284, 0.7223899294228716 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Pulitzer Prize for Fiction](https://www.pulitzer.org/prize-winners-by-category/219) is a prestigious annual award that recognizes outstanding literary works of fiction by American authors, typically dealing with American life. Established in 1917 by the provisions in the will of Joseph Pulitzer, a Hungarian-American newspaper publisher, the award has become a significant milestone in the careers of many acclaimed writers. The winner is chosen by a 17-member board, comprising distinguished journalists, academics, and literary figures, who evaluate the submissions based on their artistic merit, thematic relevance, and cultural impact.\n\nPredicting the winner of the Pulitzer Prize is [difficult](https://supposedlyfun.com/2023/03/23/pulitzer-prize-predictions-for-fiction-2023/). Unlike other awards, there is no shortlist and finalists are not announced ahead of time.\n\nRepeat winners are rare. There have only been four, most recently Colson Whitehead, who won in 2017 for *The Underground Railroad* and again in 2020 for *The Nickel Boys*.\n\nIt's more common for winners to be previous finalists. For instance, 2021's winner, Louise Erdich, was a finalist in 2009, and 2019's winner, Richard Power, was a finalist in 2007." }, { "id": 16469, "title": "Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's \"Spare\" within a year after its publication?", "short_title": "Meghan Markle's book outsells Harry's \"Spare\"", "url_title": "Meghan Markle's book outsells Harry's \"Spare\"", "slug": "meghan-markles-book-outsells-harrys-spare", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-23T05:05:11.243260Z", "published_at": "2023-04-29T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:43:50.178470Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-29T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-02-01T00:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-29T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16469, "title": "Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's \"Spare\" within a year after its publication?", "created_at": "2023-04-23T05:05:11.243260Z", "open_time": "2023-04-29T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-02-01T00:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-02-01T00:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children’s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.\n\nPrince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife’s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.\n\nBoth Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.\n\nThis question asks whether Markle’s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry’s *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children’s book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively or negatively *only* if credible sources report that Meghan Markle's upcoming book has outsold, or has not sold as many, copies as Harry's *Spare*. If there is no credible-source reporting making it unambiguously clear which book has sold more copies within a year after Markle's book is released, then this question will resolve ambiguously. It will also resolve ambiguously if Markle does not release a nonfiction, non-children's book of which she is the credited lead author by Feburary 1, 2026.\n\nSales may include hardcover, paperback, ebook, and audiobook editions, as well as additional editions, as long as they are marketed primarily as instances of the same book and their overall text content is mostly substantially identical. It is not possible to specify exactly which metric will be used as reliable figures are not publicly available, however, figures **must** be worldwide in nature or at least representative of a broad worldwide sample of markets, not merely one country or (for example) a set of exclusively English-speaking countries. Metaculus admins will use their best judgment to resolve the question based on available information.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16469, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757472219.446129, "end_time": 1761230548.947906, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757472219.446129, "end_time": 1761230548.947906, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1922645683643558 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7945282339613207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 1.4161622869304282, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2426897719026206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1088904126003392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288025.631772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288025.631772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8358495502890826, 0.16415044971091736 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. Markle has written a children’s book called The Bench, which was published in 2021 and became a New York Times bestseller. She has also hinted at writing another book, which some sources claim will be a memoir based on her secret diaries.\n\nPrince Harry, the Duke of Sussex, is the younger son of Prince Charles and the late Princess Diana. He served in the British Army for 10 years and founded several charitable initiatives, such as the Invictus Games and Sentebale. He also co-created Archewell, a foundation that encompasses his and his wife’s media and philanthropic work. He published his memoir *Spare* in 2023, which detailed his life as a royal, his military service, his mental health struggles, his marriage to Markle, and his decision to leave the royal family. The book was a global sensation and sold over 3.2 million copies worldwide in the first week of publication, making it the fastest-selling non-fiction book of all time.\n\nBoth Markle and Harry have been the subject of intense public scrutiny and media attention, especially after their explosive interview with Oprah Winfrey in 2021, where they made several allegations against the royal family and the British press. Their popularity and controversy have fueled interest in their books, which offer their personal perspectives on their lives and experiences.\n\nThis question asks whether Markle’s upcoming book will sell more copies than Harry’s *Spare* in the first year of publication. It is based on the assumption that Markle will release a nonfiction, non-children’s book of which she is the claimed lead author by Feburary 1, 2026." }, { "id": 16420, "title": "Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?", "short_title": "India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election?", "url_title": "India Acts in Pakistan by 2024 Election?", "slug": "india-acts-in-pakistan-by-2024-election", "author_id": 133221, "author_username": "Dataprasad", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-21T17:15:01.681622Z", "published_at": "2023-04-24T19:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.492067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-24T19:31:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:14:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-24T19:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16420, "title": "Will India conduct a military intervention against Pakistan before the 2024 Indian general elections?", "created_at": "2023-04-21T17:15:01.681622Z", "open_time": "2023-04-24T19:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-26T19:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-26T19:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T16:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T16:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At points, the Indian government has shown a tendency to use military operations around the time of important elections, possibly as a political strategy.\n\nIndia has not declared a war on Pakistan, but the Indian government has executed two cross-border military operations in response to terrorist attacks, subsequently leveraging them as political tools to garner voter support. The first operation occurred in 2016 when India conducted [‘surgical strikes’](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Indian_Line_of_Control_strike) on terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, following the [Uri attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Uri_attack) that resulted in the deaths of 19 Indian soldiers. This event coincided with a critical state election in Uttar Pradesh, during which the ruling party campaigned on its tough stance against Pakistan. A similar move was repeated in 2019.\n\nThe second operation took place in 2019 when India launched an [airstrike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Balakot_airstrike) on a suspected militant training facility in Balakot, Pakistan, in response to a [suicide bomber](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Pulwama_attack) killing 40 Indian paramilitary personnel in Pulwama. This operation transpired during the general elections, and the ruling party once again emphasized its national security credentials while accusing the opposition of being soft on terrorism. These incidents suggest the possibility that India might initiate another military intervention against Pakistan before the next elections, particularly if faced with a similar provocation or a decline in popularity.\n\nThe next Indian general elections are expected to be held in [April or May, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Indian_general_election).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the Indian government or military conducts a military intervention in Pakistan prior to the 2024 Indian General Election.", "fine_print": "The [2024 Indian General Election](the members of the 18th Lok Sabha) is the election of the members of the 18th Lok Sabha. If no such election is held in 2024, the question will be **annulled**. Any military intervention before voting ends will be considered for resolution purposes.\n\nA \"military intervention in Pakistan\" is defined as:\n\n1. Any military action by land, air, sea, or space, that goes beyond [routine cross-border shelling](https://carnegieindia.org/2022/02/24/bordering-on-peace-evaluating-impact-of-india-pakistan-ceasefire-pub-86513) across the Line of Control. \n2. Any cyber attack. \n3. A drone attack.\n\nThe intervention does not need to be successful for the question to resolve **Yes**.\n\nFor a **Yes** resolution, responsibility for the attack must be claimed by the Indian government or military. Interventions that are not claimed by the government, such as those that do not use Indian insignia or that are conducted by rogue military or cyber groups, are not sufficient. \n\nIsolated accidents acknowledged as such by the Indian government, like missile misfires or plane crashes across the border, also will not count.\n\nMilitary intervention in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir/Azad Kashmir would also resolve the question to **Yes.**\n\nThe resolution dates will be updated as soon as the schedule for the Indian General Elections is released.", "post_id": 16420, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714535614.399047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714535614.399047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023889200462412948 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.460052812039408, 5.134310148059293, 0.5603361365068287, 0.0, 1.292505437852832, 0.20310207541313954, 0.043962607759905424, 0.054982568596560574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09823554346831621, 0.0, 0.013286097205509028, 0.01550349210722101, 0.0, 0.07544621294165546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030705460506385295, 0.0, 0.2674291063988385, 0.0, 0.0031787604112146167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04706384752017571, 0.0, 0.011775832986515133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02704288263026733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1339790941006117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.40024808797639, "coverage": 0.9999102352677718, "baseline_score": 72.4441112948132, "spot_peer_score": 19.34677667180116, "peer_archived_score": 5.40024808797639, "baseline_archived_score": 72.4441112948132, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.34677667180116 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714535614.442745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714535614.442745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At points, the Indian government has shown a tendency to use military operations around the time of important elections, possibly as a political strategy.\n\nIndia has not declared a war on Pakistan, but the Indian government has executed two cross-border military operations in response to terrorist attacks, subsequently leveraging them as political tools to garner voter support. The first operation occurred in 2016 when India conducted [‘surgical strikes’](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Indian_Line_of_Control_strike) on terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, following the [Uri attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Uri_attack) that resulted in the deaths of 19 Indian soldiers. This event coincided with a critical state election in Uttar Pradesh, during which the ruling party campaigned on its tough stance against Pakistan. A similar move was repeated in 2019.\n\nThe second operation took place in 2019 when India launched an [airstrike](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Balakot_airstrike) on a suspected militant training facility in Balakot, Pakistan, in response to a [suicide bomber](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Pulwama_attack) killing 40 Indian paramilitary personnel in Pulwama. This operation transpired during the general elections, and the ruling party once again emphasized its national security credentials while accusing the opposition of being soft on terrorism. These incidents suggest the possibility that India might initiate another military intervention against Pakistan before the next elections, particularly if faced with a similar provocation or a decline in popularity.\n\nThe next Indian general elections are expected to be held in [April or May, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Indian_general_election)." }, { "id": 16411, "title": "Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?", "short_title": "Ministerial Resignations in Sunak Government", "url_title": "Ministerial Resignations in Sunak Government", "slug": "ministerial-resignations-in-sunak-government", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-21T13:29:26.699915Z", "published_at": "2023-04-28T02:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.767843Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-28T02:25:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-28T02:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16411, "title": "Will there be more than 10 ministerial resignations in Rishi Sunak’s government before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-04-21T13:29:26.699915Z", "open_time": "2023-04-28T02:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-30T02:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-30T02:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Rishi Sunak’s [first speech](https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-minister-rishi-sunaks-statement-25-october-2022) as Prime Minister of the UK on October 25, 2022 highlighted his desire to lead a government that will bring back professionalism and accountability, in contrast to the two previous governments, led by Truss and Johnson respectively:\n\n> The government I lead will not leave the next generation, your children and grandchildren, with a debt to settle that we were too weak to pay ourselves. \n\n> I will unite our country, not with words, but with action. \n\n> I will work day in and day out to deliver for you.\n\n> This government will have integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level.\n\nOne way that Sunak has demonstrated his desire for his government to be seen as living up to that goal is by sacking Nadhim Zahawi in [early 2023](https://www.independent.co.uk/business/sunak-stresses-commitment-to-integrity-following-zahawi-sacking-b2271847.html) for breach of ministerial code. Similarly, in April 2023, Deputy PM Dominic Raab [resigned following the outcome of a bullying investigation](https://www.independent.co.uk/business/sunak-stresses-commitment-to-integrity-following-zahawi-sacking-b2271847.html) before Sunak could sack him, as [had been speculated would happen](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-raab-prime-minister-rishi-sunak-dave-penman-deputy-prime-minister-b2323922.html). \n\nWhile ministerial resignation/sackings can be a sign of the above drive for more accountability, they can also indicate growing dissatisfaction within the party with the actions by the Prime Minister, as was the case with Boris Johnson, where [more than 50 members of Parliament resigned from his government in less than 2 days](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/uk-government-resignations-hit-50-as-pm-boris-johnson-clings-to-power.html). \n\nTracking ministerial resignations is thus important for a variety of reasons and may provide some evidence into the functioning of a government. So far, four ministers have resigned under Sunak:\n\n| Surname | Ministerial title | Date | Reason |\n|---------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|---------------------------------------------------|\n| Williamson | Minister without portfolio | 9/11/22 | Resigned after allegations of misbehaviour |\n| Stedman-Scott | Parliamentary Under Secretary of State | 1/1/23 | Personal reasons |\n| Zahawi | Minister without portfolio (party chair) | 29/1/23 | Sacked - breach of ministerial code |\n| Raab | Secretary of State for Justice, Lord Chancellor, and Deputy PM | 21/4/23 | Resigned following outcome of bullying investigation |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total number of ministerial resignations (including sackings) during Rishi Sunak’s government exceeds 10 before 2024. \n\nIf Rishi Sunak calls for snap elections and forms a new government, the total number of resignations in his first government will count. \n\nResignations include sackings, resignations based on personal reasons, resignations following internal investigations, and all other similar reasons.\n\nGovernment reshuffles do not count for this question.\n\nThis question will resolve based on the [IFO’s](https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/) [tracker of ministerial resignations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gVHNx4kzXd947AFfQGiJg5zJrdNXrM81t2OC8UJFnw8/edit#gid=0). 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Similarly, in April 2023, Deputy PM Dominic Raab [resigned following the outcome of a bullying investigation](https://www.independent.co.uk/business/sunak-stresses-commitment-to-integrity-following-zahawi-sacking-b2271847.html) before Sunak could sack him, as [had been speculated would happen](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/dominic-raab-prime-minister-rishi-sunak-dave-penman-deputy-prime-minister-b2323922.html). \n\nWhile ministerial resignation/sackings can be a sign of the above drive for more accountability, they can also indicate growing dissatisfaction within the party with the actions by the Prime Minister, as was the case with Boris Johnson, where [more than 50 members of Parliament resigned from his government in less than 2 days](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/07/uk-government-resignations-hit-50-as-pm-boris-johnson-clings-to-power.html). \n\nTracking ministerial resignations is thus important for a variety of reasons and may provide some evidence into the functioning of a government. So far, four ministers have resigned under Sunak:\n\n| Surname | Ministerial title | Date | Reason |\n|---------------|-------------------------------------------------------------|-----------|---------------------------------------------------|\n| Williamson | Minister without portfolio | 9/11/22 | Resigned after allegations of misbehaviour |\n| Stedman-Scott | Parliamentary Under Secretary of State | 1/1/23 | Personal reasons |\n| Zahawi | Minister without portfolio (party chair) | 29/1/23 | Sacked - breach of ministerial code |\n| Raab | Secretary of State for Justice, Lord Chancellor, and Deputy PM | 21/4/23 | Resigned following outcome of bullying investigation |" }, { "id": 16409, "title": "Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguayan presidential election on April 30th?", "short_title": "Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguay election?", "url_title": "Will Santiago Peña win the Paraguay election?", "slug": "will-santiago-pena-win-the-paraguay-election", "author_id": 132519, 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Of global note, this party supports Taiwan's independence, as one of only [13 formal diplomatic allies.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/17/taiwan-in-the-hot-seat-during-paraguay-presidential-elections)\n\nHowever, leading opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre, of the more centrist Authentic Radical Liberal Party (PLRA) has said, \"...he will break ties with Taiwan if elected and recognize the People’s Republic of China instead.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** on the basis of an official election result published by a credible news source or government agency that clearly states that Santiago Peña has been declared the winner and president of Paraguay.\n\nIf the election is significantly postponed (held after May 1, 2023 or later) or otherwise cancelled, this question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16409, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682790466.128076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682790466.128076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5666071129825196 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3645648957485751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004137083572762841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003341999642790191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.636212756914152, 0.2952096546785722, 0.024857065371296127, 0.12168712976649625, 0.017175512748169287, 0.3119370874614128, 0.0, 0.0, 1.050579864326534, 0.0, 0.0865557529401609, 0.2505638892535192, 1.1419491877046233, 0.14409911274774573, 1.8232821704663413, 0.6402244654560508, 0.5116888389472106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1958661152464525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019501694237860755, 0.0, 1.8957964879524905, 0.07095202666684558, 0.6788062773671363, 0.7923431060164742, 0.0, 0.45170010737853167, 0.04791750235716968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01314514673938087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5906778299829472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15653253442693307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038896999174760465 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.982103490494643, "coverage": 0.9999705494573299, "baseline_score": 10.41402274809903, "spot_peer_score": 6.736947856973913, "peer_archived_score": 7.982103490494643, "baseline_archived_score": 10.41402274809903, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.736947856973913 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682790466.144495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682790466.144495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4906622548592463, 0.5093377451407537 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 30th, Paraguayan citizens head to the polls to elect their next president with ripples likely to be felt around the world.\n\nLeading candidate, Santiago Peña, represents the Colorado Party, which has been in power for much of the last century, including the current President Mario Abdo Benítez. Of global note, this party supports Taiwan's independence, as one of only [13 formal diplomatic allies.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/17/taiwan-in-the-hot-seat-during-paraguay-presidential-elections)\n\nHowever, leading opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre, of the more centrist Authentic Radical Liberal Party (PLRA) has said, \"...he will break ties with Taiwan if elected and recognize the People’s Republic of China instead.\"" }, { "id": 16404, "title": "Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?", "short_title": "Yuan a Top 3 Global Currency", "url_title": "Yuan a Top 3 Global Currency", "slug": "yuan-a-top-3-global-currency", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-20T14:47:21.066684Z", "published_at": "2023-05-10T23:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.797989Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-10T23:26:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-10T23:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16404, "title": "Will the Chinese Yuan be among the top 3 global payments currencies before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-04-20T14:47:21.066684Z", "open_time": "2023-05-10T23:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-12T23:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-12T23:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Dedollarisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedollarisation) refers to the process of reducing reliance on the US dollar for various purposes, such as trading commodities, holding forex reserves, establishing bilateral trade agreements, and using dollar-denominated assets. This phenomenon has been occurring globally as countries seek alternatives to the US dollar. Examples include China, which has been gradually shifting from the dollar to the yuan for trade, and Russia, which has been pursuing dedollarisation since 2014.\n\nOne way to assess dedollarisation is via looking at the most active currencies for global payments (by value). The most likely currency to lead such a charge is the Chinese yuan (CNY), which has been touted as an [alternative to the US dollar](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-and-china-have-been-teaming-up-to-reduce-reliance-on-the-dollar-heres-how-its-going/) in light of broad Western sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, CNY held its position as the fifth most active global payments currency by value, with a 2.19% share. It ranks behind the USD (41.10%), the EUR (36.43%), the GBP (6.58%), and the JPY (2.98%).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves on the basis of SWIFT’s [RMB Tracker](https://www.swift.com/our-solutions/compliance-and-shared-services/business-intelligence/renminbi/rmb-tracker/rmb-tracker-document-centre). The RMB Tracker is a monthly report that provides statistics on the progress of the Chinese currency, Renminbi (RMB). \n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if CNY is ranked in the top 3 of ‘RMB’s share as a global payments currency’ for any month ranging from April 2023 to December 2029. \n\nThis question resolves as **No** if CNY is not ranked in the top 3 of ‘RMB’s share as a global payments currency’ for any month ranging from April 2023 to December 2029.\n\nIf SWIFT ceases publication of the RMB Tracker, a substitute measure of global payments by currency may be used. If no straightforward data is easily available, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "The terms \"Renminbi\" and \"Chinese Yuan\" are often used interchangeably, but they refer to slightly different aspects of China's currency:\n\nRenminbi (RMB): This term means \"the people's currency\" in Chinese and is the official name of the Chinese currency. It is used to denote the entire Chinese currency system.\n\nChinese Yuan (CNY): The yuan is the unit of account of the Renminbi. It is the primary denomination used in daily transactions and serves a similar function as the \"dollar\" in the United States. The symbol for the Chinese Yuan is \"¥.\"\n\nIn summary, Renminbi refers to the entire Chinese currency system, while the Chinese Yuan is the specific unit of the currency used in daily transactions.", "post_id": 16404, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758498774.35334, "end_time": 1760907597.299084, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758498774.35334, "end_time": 1760907597.299084, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.40167977752243844 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.6571444928584438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34768495764207935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09293152494368159, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.05797234383343228, 1.0, 0.2860299729744996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.494559814109398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.848390712889754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5029882706621958, 0.0, 0.6019627254324547, 0.5506534361945985, 1.009107197592307, 0.3445918901109067, 0.0, 0.7062192136330592, 0.0, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08867683223307754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9215931031121718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01436637288393175, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4459283710101287 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286976.061265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286976.061265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7685051882087184, 0.23149481179128167 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Dedollarisation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedollarisation) refers to the process of reducing reliance on the US dollar for various purposes, such as trading commodities, holding forex reserves, establishing bilateral trade agreements, and using dollar-denominated assets. This phenomenon has been occurring globally as countries seek alternatives to the US dollar. Examples include China, which has been gradually shifting from the dollar to the yuan for trade, and Russia, which has been pursuing dedollarisation since 2014.\n\nOne way to assess dedollarisation is via looking at the most active currencies for global payments (by value). The most likely currency to lead such a charge is the Chinese yuan (CNY), which has been touted as an [alternative to the US dollar](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-and-china-have-been-teaming-up-to-reduce-reliance-on-the-dollar-heres-how-its-going/) in light of broad Western sanctions against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, CNY held its position as the fifth most active global payments currency by value, with a 2.19% share. It ranks behind the USD (41.10%), the EUR (36.43%), the GBP (6.58%), and the JPY (2.98%)." }, { "id": 16327, "title": "Will Israel still be rated \"Free\" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?", "short_title": "Israel's Rating in Freedom in the World 2024", "url_title": "Israel's Rating in Freedom in the World 2024", "slug": "israels-rating-in-freedom-in-the-world-2024", "author_id": 128784, "author_username": "benj83", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-19T18:14:35.279275Z", "published_at": "2023-05-13T23:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.932510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-13T23:32:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-29T05:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-29T05:23:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-13T23:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16327, "title": "Will Israel still be rated \"Free\" in the Freedom in the World 2024 Report (covering the year 2023)?", "created_at": "2023-04-19T18:14:35.279275Z", "open_time": "2023-05-13T23:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-21T15:47:24.990622Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-21T15:47:24.990622Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-29T05:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-29T05:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-29T05:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Freedom in the World](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_in_the_World) is a yearly report that measures the degree of civil liberties and political rights in the different countries in the World. It is published by the NGO Freedom House.\n\nEach country gets two scores: one for civil liberties and the other for political rights. The scale of the scores is 1-7, where 1 is the best score (highest degree of liberty/rights) and 7 is the worst. If the sum of the country’s two scores is 5 or lower, it is rated as (Fully) Free. If it’s greater than 5 but lower than 11, it’s rated as Partly Free. If it’s 11 or more, it’s rated as Not Free. \n\nIsrael has always been rated as (Fully) Free in the report, since the first report (1973). In the [latest report](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/FIW_World_2023_DigtalPDF.pdf), that was published in March 2023 and covers the year of 2022, Israel’s score for Civil liberties was 3 and its score for Political Rights was 2. The sum of the two scores is 5, hence making [Israel rated as Free](https://freedomhouse.org/country/israel/freedom-world/2023) . Currently, 84 countries are rated Free, 54 are rated Partly Free and 47 are rated Not Free.\n\nIsrael’s scores have been declining in recent years. While in the years 2006 to 2017 Israel’s Civil Liberties score was 2 and its score for Political Rights was 1, Since 2018 the scores declined. In 2019 it got to scores of 2 and 3, which remained since then. This level of scores had not been seen in Israel since the 1977 report. However, the declines have not been enough to change Israel’s rating, which remains Free.\n\nIn November 2022 a new government was elected. The new government, formed in the last days of December 2022, contains some far-right elements. \nIn January 2023 the government started legislating a [judicial reform](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871), that strip some power from the judicial system. In response, mass protests and strikes erupted. The reforms would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed unconstitutional.\n\nIn late March 2023, [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a temporary pause](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/27/middleeast/israel-judicial-overhaul-protests-intl/index.html) to the legislation. The main opposition parties welcomed the decision very cautiously. The street demonstrations did not stop, however, as many participants denounced the freeze as temporary.\n\nThe attempts to legislate the judicial reform are not yet reflected in the latest Freedom in the World report, as it covers the year of 2022 and the legislation began in January 2023. The next report, covering the year 2023, is supposed to be published in early 2024. It is uncertain whether the judicial reform will pass until then, and if it does – what would its effect on Israel’s freedom ratings be.\n\nMore information about the [reform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform) and [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform_protests) can be found on Wikipedia.", "resolution_criteria": "Questions resolves as \"Yes\" if in the 2024 edition of Freedom in the World Report, covering the year 2023, Israel's rating will remain \"Free\".", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16327, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704096052.440642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704096052.440642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7496756871661375 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04583246801941605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42263576739826525, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977796731925345, 0.35791618639528056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.10972487483863327, 1.0095518832962735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6531762481724939, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2944786576332015, 0.0, 1.3231732224227755, 0.05390754280524653, 0.12458556497060898, 1.4214649747974195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2138071744170765, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.7130527459887679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0248437582050838 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.867160865997867, "coverage": 0.9999779343239503, "baseline_score": 33.37520869790321, "spot_peer_score": -5.999480952970741, "peer_archived_score": 16.867160865997867, "baseline_archived_score": 33.37520869790321, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.999480952970741 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704096052.461494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704096052.461494, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2590787316208092, 0.7409212683791908 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Freedom in the World](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_in_the_World) is a yearly report that measures the degree of civil liberties and political rights in the different countries in the World. It is published by the NGO Freedom House.\n\nEach country gets two scores: one for civil liberties and the other for political rights. The scale of the scores is 1-7, where 1 is the best score (highest degree of liberty/rights) and 7 is the worst. If the sum of the country’s two scores is 5 or lower, it is rated as (Fully) Free. If it’s greater than 5 but lower than 11, it’s rated as Partly Free. If it’s 11 or more, it’s rated as Not Free. \n\nIsrael has always been rated as (Fully) Free in the report, since the first report (1973). In the [latest report](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2023-03/FIW_World_2023_DigtalPDF.pdf), that was published in March 2023 and covers the year of 2022, Israel’s score for Civil liberties was 3 and its score for Political Rights was 2. The sum of the two scores is 5, hence making [Israel rated as Free](https://freedomhouse.org/country/israel/freedom-world/2023) . Currently, 84 countries are rated Free, 54 are rated Partly Free and 47 are rated Not Free.\n\nIsrael’s scores have been declining in recent years. While in the years 2006 to 2017 Israel’s Civil Liberties score was 2 and its score for Political Rights was 1, Since 2018 the scores declined. In 2019 it got to scores of 2 and 3, which remained since then. This level of scores had not been seen in Israel since the 1977 report. However, the declines have not been enough to change Israel’s rating, which remains Free.\n\nIn November 2022 a new government was elected. The new government, formed in the last days of December 2022, contains some far-right elements. \nIn January 2023 the government started legislating a [judicial reform](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-65086871), that strip some power from the judicial system. In response, mass protests and strikes erupted. The reforms would grant the government control over judge appointments and limit the Supreme Court's ability to strike down legislation deemed unconstitutional.\n\nIn late March 2023, [Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a temporary pause](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/27/middleeast/israel-judicial-overhaul-protests-intl/index.html) to the legislation. The main opposition parties welcomed the decision very cautiously. The street demonstrations did not stop, however, as many participants denounced the freeze as temporary.\n\nThe attempts to legislate the judicial reform are not yet reflected in the latest Freedom in the World report, as it covers the year of 2022 and the legislation began in January 2023. The next report, covering the year 2023, is supposed to be published in early 2024. It is uncertain whether the judicial reform will pass until then, and if it does – what would its effect on Israel’s freedom ratings be.\n\nMore information about the [reform](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform) and [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform_protests) can be found on Wikipedia." }, { "id": 16179, "title": "Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?", "short_title": "Transformers Still SoTA in 2027?", "url_title": "Transformers Still SoTA in 2027?", "slug": "transformers-still-sota-in-2027", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 109610, "username": "elifland" } ], "created_at": "2023-04-19T12:49:52.085428Z", "published_at": "2024-05-14T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T03:49:47.645366Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-14T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-14T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16179, "title": "Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2023-04-19T12:49:52.085428Z", "open_time": "2024-05-14T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-17T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-17T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early March 2022, a bet was [announced](https://twitter.com/srush_nlp/status/1499157715054120969) between Sasha Rush, an Associate Professor at Cornell Tech, and Jonathan Frankle, Chief Scientist at a machine learning startup. The bet is interesting for getting a better understanding of the future trajectory of AI development; to the extent a shift from transformers as the dominant paradigm is more or less likely, different alignment strategies might be more or less promising. \n\nMore information regarding the bet can be found at [http://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/](http://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/).", "resolution_criteria": "Sasha Rush and Jonathan Frankle have a public bet on this proposition: \n\n>On January 1, 2027, a [Transformer-like](https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.03762) model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmarked tasks in natural language processing.\n\nFor the motion is Frankle, and against the motion is Rush.\n\nThe question will resolve positively if Rush concedes the bet and negatively if Frankle concedes. \n\nIf neither side concedes before April 1, 2027, the question will resolve as ambiguous.", "fine_print": "If Rush and Frankle cancel their bet or significantly alter its criteria, the question may be annulled.", "post_id": 16179, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758420617.0518, "end_time": 1759459457.649676, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.965 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758420617.0518, "end_time": 1759459457.649676, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.965 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.03500000000000003, 0.965 ], "means": [ 0.9386234291016484 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7961378208442376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 1.5176266504557887 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288845.987732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288845.987732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.34569257225603034, 0.6543074277439697 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early March 2022, a bet was [announced](https://twitter.com/srush_nlp/status/1499157715054120969) between Sasha Rush, an Associate Professor at Cornell Tech, and Jonathan Frankle, Chief Scientist at a machine learning startup. The bet is interesting for getting a better understanding of the future trajectory of AI development; to the extent a shift from transformers as the dominant paradigm is more or less likely, different alignment strategies might be more or less promising. \n\nMore information regarding the bet can be found at [http://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/](http://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/)." }, { "id": 16168, "title": "Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?", "short_title": "Dianne Feinstein resignation", "url_title": "Dianne Feinstein resignation", "slug": "dianne-feinstein-resignation", "author_id": 141875, "author_username": "onefuture", "coauthors": [ { "id": 126097, "username": "jokerwing" } ], "created_at": "2023-04-19T00:14:18.193255Z", "published_at": "2023-04-21T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.711642Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-21T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-29T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-03T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-29T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-21T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16168, "title": "Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?", "created_at": "2023-04-19T00:14:18.193255Z", "open_time": "2023-04-21T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-23T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-23T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-03T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-29T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-29T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-03T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-29T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Born in 1933, [Dianne Feinstein](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dianne_Feinstein) has been serving as a US Senator since 1992. \n\nDespite announcing her intention [not to seek re-election in 2024](https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?id=7749771D-9314-4884-A75D-D9DE7181D372#:~:text=Feinstein%3A%20Will%20Not%20Run%20for,United%20States%20Senator%20for%20California), recent health concerns and increasing public pressure have fueled speculation about her potential resignation. At the age of 89, Feinstein has experienced extended medical absences and reportedly exhibited signs of senility, which has [raised concerns](https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/13/23681758/dianne-feinstein-calls-to-resign-age-judges) about her ability to fulfill her duties in the Senate. \n\nAs many votes in the current Senate rely on a single Senator's decision, her absence has had [significant implications](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/biden-judges-senate-blue-slips-absences/index.html) on proceedings, such as the confirmations of federal judges. \n\nIn the event of her resignation, the Governor of California would appoint a temporary replacement until the 2024 election determines a full-term successor.", "resolution_criteria": "If Senator Feinstein resigns before the end of her current term, this question will resolve **Yes**.", "fine_print": "Feinstein must resign for a **Yes** resolution. If Senator Feinstein leaves office for another reason, that will not be sufficient for the question to resolve **Yes**.", "post_id": 16168, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695999583.491222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695999583.491222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.2702348507544473 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.9973635476751577, 3.9598291914374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39240618529421484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01420841581464255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44026688641862316, 0.0, 0.03961264331825656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003399429418515302, 0.012080067640697419, 0.20489726080997955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08926029747599007, 0.0, 0.041854423028354265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40375956833042065, 0.0, 0.10860410592794534, 0.24263464463183257, 0.0, 0.05265139568081303, 0.525512280207765, 0.2520238702234319, 0.0, 0.4570562060943923, 0.08860449871981593, 0.0, 0.07277615171478852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03283702835426392, 0.0, 0.1721577213751192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7320692676052394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010175510648281665, 0.0, 0.45617316702529614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053980521873020895, 0.11946929754074909, 0.0, 0.3631009988528126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.3812827334661812, "coverage": 0.2582976390379076, "baseline_score": -17.66682342258012, "spot_peer_score": 34.32183115063036, "peer_archived_score": 2.3812827334661812, "baseline_archived_score": -17.66682342258012, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.32183115063036 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695887408.981612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695887408.981612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3973370937828805, 0.6026629062171195 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Born in 1933, [Dianne Feinstein](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dianne_Feinstein) has been serving as a US Senator since 1992. \n\nDespite announcing her intention [not to seek re-election in 2024](https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?id=7749771D-9314-4884-A75D-D9DE7181D372#:~:text=Feinstein%3A%20Will%20Not%20Run%20for,United%20States%20Senator%20for%20California), recent health concerns and increasing public pressure have fueled speculation about her potential resignation. At the age of 89, Feinstein has experienced extended medical absences and reportedly exhibited signs of senility, which has [raised concerns](https://www.vox.com/politics/2023/4/13/23681758/dianne-feinstein-calls-to-resign-age-judges) about her ability to fulfill her duties in the Senate. \n\nAs many votes in the current Senate rely on a single Senator's decision, her absence has had [significant implications](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/10/politics/biden-judges-senate-blue-slips-absences/index.html) on proceedings, such as the confirmations of federal judges. \n\nIn the event of her resignation, the Governor of California would appoint a temporary replacement until the 2024 election determines a full-term successor." }, { "id": 16164, "title": "Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?", "short_title": "Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?", "url_title": "Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?", "slug": "fatality-due-to-nuclear-detonation-by-2025", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-18T23:51:04.827509Z", "published_at": "2023-04-19T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.841533Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-19T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:29:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16164, "title": "Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-04-18T23:51:04.827509Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-21T08:07:23.405900Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-21T08:07:23.405900Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:31:14.310380Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\n\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\n\nOn September 21, 2022, Russian President [Vladimir Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is at least one fatality due to a nuclear detonation (excluding [detonations for testing purposes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing) nor [peaceful nuclear explosions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peaceful_nuclear_explosion)) before January 1, 2025. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "Test detonations and peaceful nuclear explosions are defined as detonations which are claimed as being a test or a peaceful nuclear explosion by an official government communication within 30 days of the event, without this being disputed by reliable media, state reports, or multinational reports.\n\nAny qualifying nuclear detonation must occur less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\").", "post_id": 16164, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654923.653208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654923.653208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.029726555616232723 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.624675896373702, 1.5299673087622858, 0.338266843588547, 0.6519230825691662, 0.3108103300250275, 0.2107719493068028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1494220410952148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038452075194978584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.07128274001026091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5089300594347316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029132572966941807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.0258872570968, "peer_score": 9.857537086414343, "coverage": 0.9999597470328824, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999597470328824, "spot_peer_score": 8.129999582827516, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": 96.0258872570968, "peer_archived_score": 9.857537086414343, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.129999582827516, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287726.382741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287726.382741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9990355734109917, 0.0009644265890083568 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\n\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\n\nOn September 21, 2022, Russian President [Vladimir Putin delivered a speech](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62984985) in which he announced the partial mobilization of reservists and also issued what [media sources have characterized](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-moscow-nuclear-weapons-e0b9ba6d3eac964b9c0b7192b3adff2e) as a threatened willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying\n\n>When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. It's not a bluff." }, { "id": 16157, "title": "Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?", "short_title": "Musk LLM Release before 2024?", "url_title": "Musk LLM Release before 2024?", "slug": "musk-llm-release-before-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-18T22:12:34.635619Z", "published_at": "2023-04-19T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.939374Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-19T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-08T03:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-08T03:55:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 199, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T04:28:08.227330Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T04:28:08.227330Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16157, "title": "Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-04-18T22:12:34.635619Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-19T19:53:07.903000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-19T19:53:07.903000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-08T03:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-08T03:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-08T03:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 9, 2023, Elon Musk incorporated a new AI company called [X.AI](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x). [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x) reports rumors that Musk has purchased thousands of Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) to build an AI product.\n\nIn an interview with [Fox News' Tucker Carlson](https://www.foxnews.com/media/elon-musk-sits-down-tucker-carlson-exclusive-two-part-interview-event), Musk said:\n\n> AI is more dangerous than, say, mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance or bad car production In the sense that it has the potential, however small one may regard that probability, but it is non-trivial, it has the potential of civilization destruction.\n\nMusk was also a signatory of the [Future of Life Institute's open letter](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/), published March 22, 2023, which stated that \"AI systems with human-competitive intelligence can pose profound risks to society and humanity\", calling for a 6-month pause on training larger AI models than [GPT-4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-4).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an AI lab which receives funding from Elon Musk releases a large language model at any time between April 1, 2023 to January 1, 2024. A model will be considered \"released\" if a general member of the public can access the model, either though a paid subscription, a waitlist, or through immediate free access. The model may be accessed through a web interface, an API, or by accessing its open source code. There are no requirements on the architecture, parameter count, or estimated training cost of the model; a model will qualify if responds to natural language text with natural language text.\n\nThere are no requirements on the amount of funding Musk provides to the AI lab, so long as this information is public and not disputed by either Musk or the AI lab. This question will exclude all of the following labs (as well as any of their partners and subsidiaries) regardless of whether they receive any funding by Elon Musk:\n\n* [OpenAI](https://openai.com/)\n* [DeepMind](https://www.deepmind.com/) / [Google Brain](https://research.google/teams/brain/)\n* [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/)\n* [Meta AI / Facebook AI Research](https://ai.facebook.com/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16157, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702009559.723501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702009559.723501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9615702115871136 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0005447013796136244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010025872189661303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005349865746531424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004171016256221588, 0.0, 0.0006121507102644883, 4.614922666941518e-05, 0.00448610013232975, 0.005727569154080072, 0.0, 0.0027388249879830746, 0.0, 0.005118084078716098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013917206042582432, 0.0015170875407282188, 0.004433907140156952, 0.008862694331097425, 0.0, 0.013622219242667342, 4.5027955005351724e-05, 0.0, 0.0027154202705135188, 0.0061643726906911575, 8.837747852704062e-05, 0.011526745840409485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020923194441417243, 0.3307115022293911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.387605785471575e-05, 0.00691465990466744, 0.0017280368436842332, 0.0, 0.004068785558524585, 0.0018554125821585064, 0.007600996801755409, 0.0, 0.0008549425470316368, 0.0, 0.0011612401486004924, 0.0013307309791962467, 0.0, 2.7503846118902807e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004883158687143817, 0.00014845430499630315, 0.0008799300275506664, 0.0, 0.0012426146972670342, 0.006875382719947604, 0.32615299128119585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003553803346794277, 0.0030038902389366772, 0.06986343735005576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002498623741148246, 0.011329727648749018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005264798728301011, 0.012779133483724387, 0.5765077138945013, 0.6492472601387979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0134499887611997, 0.4316082986057109, 0.01488738538524845, 0.022862098631590368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2357599975551497, 0.0, 0.09253096002890907, 0.06238345891801686, 0.0, 0.8915485897762465, 0.24892827778162904, 1.3966998307191851, 3.3762909380732573, 17.831552885710412 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.688851115934504, "coverage": 0.9078423786103851, "baseline_score": -12.064616992543028, "spot_peer_score": 38.087428073704345, "peer_archived_score": 17.688851115934504, "baseline_archived_score": -12.064616992543028, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.087428073704345 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701848701.91667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701848701.91667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 199, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.05595321402601261, 0.9440467859739874 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 664, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 9, 2023, Elon Musk incorporated a new AI company called [X.AI](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x). [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/14/23684005/elon-musk-new-ai-company-x) reports rumors that Musk has purchased thousands of Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) to build an AI product.\n\nIn an interview with [Fox News' Tucker Carlson](https://www.foxnews.com/media/elon-musk-sits-down-tucker-carlson-exclusive-two-part-interview-event), Musk said:\n\n> AI is more dangerous than, say, mismanaged aircraft design or production maintenance or bad car production In the sense that it has the potential, however small one may regard that probability, but it is non-trivial, it has the potential of civilization destruction.\n\nMusk was also a signatory of the [Future of Life Institute's open letter](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/), published March 22, 2023, which stated that \"AI systems with human-competitive intelligence can pose profound risks to society and humanity\", calling for a 6-month pause on training larger AI models than [GPT-4](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-4)." }, { "id": 16033, "title": "Will either of last year's disc golf champions, Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg, win 1st place in Jonesboro again this year?", "short_title": "Jonesboro Repeat Disc Golf Champions?", "url_title": "Jonesboro Repeat Disc Golf Champions?", "slug": "jonesboro-repeat-disc-golf-champions", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [ { "id": 128380, "username": "OldJohnL" } ], "created_at": "2023-04-18T19:12:13.418302Z", "published_at": "2023-04-21T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.688699Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-21T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-28T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-28T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T16:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T16:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-21T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, 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The [Disc Golf Network](https://www.discgolfnetwork.com/jonesboro-open/) describes it as, \"...one of the longest, most challenging courses on tour. Highlighting huge, mature trees and the rolling hills of Jonesboro, Arkansas, the Jonesboro Open has become a favorite of many touring professionals.\" \n\nKristin Tattar and Calvin Heimburg won the Jonesboro Open [last year](https://www.jonesboroopen.com/past-winners).\n\nSo far this year, in FPO, Kristin Tattar has been dominant; ranking first in UDisc World and Statmando Multiview combined rankings. \n\nIn MPO, Calvin Heimburg ranks first in the Statmando multiview combined rankings, while Gannon Buhr, who rose to the top UDisc World rank after last weekend's tournament, [still considers Calvin to be the top player right now](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRrCgbk1QH4&t…).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **yes** if either or both of Kristin Tattar or Calvin Heimburg place first in the *[Play It Again Sports Jonesboro Open](https://www.jonesboroopen.com/past-winners)*.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 16033, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682697530.483107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682697530.483107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6898438704234359 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05451133392988236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.09924199395337108, 0.16824568062905945, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5423217510343592, 0.32449805599287956, 0.08952255740626561, 0.6844047848430631, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.8614998454466418, 0.0, 0.7396417846986983, 1.7721022451904105, 0.11083038735431396, 1.0458999100804718, 0.01917969985736262, 0.539066693473018, 0.0, 0.7248669686195495, 0.13717490894663273, 0.015977422099957932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27952068312565814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41094427890984186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03621693803772868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08861704666596604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5907126539143274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7026925263566991 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.1077891727166316, "coverage": 0.9999874638186561, "baseline_score": 52.909298254208075, "spot_peer_score": 1.0528703801297794, "peer_archived_score": 2.1077891727166316, "baseline_archived_score": 52.909298254208075, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.0528703801297794 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682697530.495544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682697530.495544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38976694343440155, 0.6102330565655985 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Disc golf tournaments have emerged as a popular competitive sport, leading to an increase in the number and scale of [professional disc golf tournaments](https://www.dgpt.com/) worldwide. \n\nThe *[Play It Again Sports Jonesboro Open](https://www.dgpt.com/event/jonesboro-open-2023/)* runs from April 28-30th and attracts the best players in the sport. The [Disc Golf Network](https://www.discgolfnetwork.com/jonesboro-open/) describes it as, \"...one of the longest, most challenging courses on tour. Highlighting huge, mature trees and the rolling hills of Jonesboro, Arkansas, the Jonesboro Open has become a favorite of many touring professionals.\" \n\nKristin Tattar and Calvin Heimburg won the Jonesboro Open [last year](https://www.jonesboroopen.com/past-winners).\n\nSo far this year, in FPO, Kristin Tattar has been dominant; ranking first in UDisc World and Statmando Multiview combined rankings. \n\nIn MPO, Calvin Heimburg ranks first in the Statmando multiview combined rankings, while Gannon Buhr, who rose to the top UDisc World rank after last weekend's tournament, [still considers Calvin to be the top player right now](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRrCgbk1QH4&t…)." }, { "id": 16014, "title": "Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to\nanother computer system before 2033?", "short_title": "AI Unauthorized Access Before 2033?", "url_title": "AI Unauthorized Access Before 2033?", "slug": "ai-unauthorized-access-before-2033", 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"name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T08:26:58.100421Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16014, "title": "Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to\nanother computer system before 2033?", "created_at": "2023-04-18T13:40:19.442638Z", "open_time": "2023-04-21T13:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-23T10:13:34.044485Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-23T10:13:34.044485Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS\nattempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1st, 2033 a credible source reports an AI has gained unauthorized access to a computer system in a way that meets the following criteria:\n\n• The AI was not trained to or directed to gain access to the system in question by any actor. See additional clarifications in footnotes (1, 2, 3) in the fine print.\n\n• The system it gained access to was not open to the public, and the AI was not given any relevant credentials in advance.\n\nIf the above points are not confirmed by the source (for instance, the article author is unsure if there was a human directing the AI), this does **not** resolve as **Yes** until some credible source gives high confidence in these factors.\n\nThe unauthorized access could be to user level accounts, admin level accounts, data stores, or any other reasonable interpretation of a computer system with restricted access. Any of these types of access is sufficient to resolve as **Yes** if all above conditions hold. Additionally, the source does not have to use the exact terms ‘independent’, ‘unauthorized access’, ‘AI’ or ‘computer system’ if the meaning is there.\n\nAs an example, imagine a credible source reports that an ML algorithm directed and / or trained to target certain people on social media and convince them to vote for Party X, decided on its own to hack into their Facebook user accounts so it could use their personal data to create a more convincing argument. This would resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "1) The AI may have been asked to fulfill a nearby goal, such as ‘make lots of money appear in this bank account’ or ‘make this political party win’ – if they independently decide to access a restricted computer system they are not authorized for to achieve these goals, that resolves as **Yes**.\n\n2) An AI that was trained more broadly to gain unauthorized access eg. to ‘get access to as many user accounts in as many companies as possible, using brute force password hacking’ does **not** resolve as **Yes**, as it was still directed to hack a set of systems that the reported case was included in.\n\n3) The AI may have human assistance and still resolve as **Yes** if this is not directional assistance (for instance, it may choose to use social engineering techniques to have a human who doesn’t know it’s true purpose give up password details).", "post_id": 16014, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758487143.632145, "end_time": 1758721274.019466, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758487143.632145, "end_time": 1758721274.019466, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8099246720202137 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8737530836223577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34305671981917313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9547323761971137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3610658760156533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13248181875044834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018771497257766645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30943628715017657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5656933905133233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.565580963446948, 0.006834978656102392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11579559991724506, 0.0, 0.067703634051277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1376276937284645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7573090911210334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025343692465123326, 0.9165848769416415, 0.0, 0.00011339842917678962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.133813186719104, 0.27879966205926854, 0.020915520438277532, 0.8371273295820673, 0.3810343690240797, 2.8267372813019858, 1.1554356317053815, 0.6531084069484618, 1.606970925963057, 5.109941128951536 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289569.434375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289569.434375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17794678902147965, 0.8220532109785204 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 251, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS\nattempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance)." }, { "id": 16011, "title": "Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?", "short_title": "Star Trek and Star Wars crossover before 2060", "url_title": "Star Trek and Star Wars crossover before 2060", "slug": "star-trek-and-star-wars-crossover-before-2060", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-18T06:39:37.006710Z", "published_at": "2023-04-22T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T03:03:13.219990Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-22T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-22T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 16011, "title": "Will a Star Trek and Star Wars crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060?", "created_at": "2023-04-18T06:39:37.006710Z", "open_time": "2023-04-22T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-24T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-24T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2060-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Comparison of Star Trek and Star Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Star_Trek_and_Star_Wars) is one of the largest topics of conversation among the science fiction fan base. Which of the two franchises is better is frequently debated among fans, and the two have a fair degree of influence on each other. The idea of a crossover film or TV program between the two franchises has been proposed since the first Star Wars film was released in 1977. Despite this, no such media has ever been produced.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a feature-length film or TV/streaming series is released before January 1, 2060, in which established characters of the Star Wars and Star Trek franchises interact. If such media also includes newly-created characters and/or characters from other franchises, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the interaction between established Star Wars and Star Trek characters plays a role in driving the plot, according to the discretion of Metaculus admins. If this does not occur before the resolution date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The mere presence of \"Star Trek\" and \"Star Wars\" in the title of a film or TV series will not be sufficient for resolving this question unless the stated criteria are met. However, Metaculus admins may consider such a title when determining if the primary focus of the production is the interaction between characters from the two franchises. Conversely, a production that meets the criteria does not necessarily need to have \"Star Trek\" and \"Star Wars\" in its title to resolve this question as **Yes.**\n\nFor purposes of this question, the threshold for interaction is five or more verbal exchanges total between the collective Star Wars characters and the collective Star Trek characters in a single film or episode.", "post_id": 16011, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757473382.638484, "end_time": 1784655424.562, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757473382.638484, "end_time": 1784655424.562, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3075234671819719 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6929169642170742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5642495998332693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3128907674394386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 1.5517079304053127, 0.6078097139925314, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3260268691378713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.023645968432686428, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.12974357522700947, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288173.819639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288173.819639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7682310500347073, 0.2317689499652927 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Comparison of Star Trek and Star Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_Star_Trek_and_Star_Wars) is one of the largest topics of conversation among the science fiction fan base. Which of the two franchises is better is frequently debated among fans, and the two have a fair degree of influence on each other. The idea of a crossover film or TV program between the two franchises has been proposed since the first Star Wars film was released in 1977. Despite this, no such media has ever been produced." }, { "id": 16009, "title": "Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to\nanother computer system by 2033?", "short_title": "AI unauthorized access by 2033", "url_title": "AI unauthorized access by 2033", "slug": "ai-unauthorized-access-by-2033", "author_id": 130060, "author_username": "zoehtwilliams", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-18T03:00:20.090124Z", "published_at": "2023-04-18T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.723484Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-18T11:28:06.045678Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-18T13:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-18T13:40:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-18T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16009, "title": "Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to\nanother computer system by 2033?", "created_at": "2023-04-18T03:00:20.090124Z", "open_time": "2023-04-18T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-20T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-18T13:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-18T13:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-18T13:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS\nattempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance).", "resolution_criteria": "The question posed here is “Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?”\n\nThis resolves positively if by Jan 1st, 2033 a credible source reports an AI has gained unauthorized access to a computer system in a way that meets the following criteria:\n\n• The AI was not trained to or directed to gain access to the system in question by any actor. See additional clarifications in footnotes (1, 2, 3) in the fine print.\n\n• The system it gained access to was not open to the public, and the AI was not given any relevant credentials in advance.\n\nIf the above points are not confirmed by the source (for instance, the article author is unsure if there was a human directing the AI), this does not resolve as positive until some credible source gives high confidence in these factors.\n\nThe unauthorized access could be to user level accounts, admin level accounts, data stores, or any other reasonable interpretation of a computer system with restricted access. All resolve as positive if all above conditions hold. Additionally, the source does not have to use the exact terms ‘independent’, ‘unauthorized access’, ‘AI’ or ‘computer system’ if the meaning is there.\n\nAs an example, imagine a credible source reports that an ML algorithm directed and / or trained to target certain people on social media and convince them to vote for Party X, decided on its own to hack into their Facebook user accounts so it could use their personal data to create a more convincing argument. This would resolve positively.", "fine_print": "1) The AI may have been asked to fulfill a nearby goal, such as ‘make lots of money appear in this bank account’ or ‘make this political party win’ – if they independently decide to access a restricted computer system they are not authorized for to achieve these goals, that resolves positive.\n\n2) An AI that was trained more broadly to gain unauthorized access eg. to ‘get access to as many user accounts in as many companies as possible, using brute force password hacking’ does not resolve as positive, as it was still directed to hack a set of systems that the reported case was included in.\n\n3) The AI may have human assistance and still resolve positive if this is not directional assistance (for instance, it may choose to use social engineering techniques to have a human who doesn’t know it’s true purpose give up password details).", "post_id": 16009, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681824136.039735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681824136.039735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.8161806461824305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681824136.049746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681824136.049746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.16987767250056263, 0.8301223274994374 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society. This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.\n\nBecause of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems. Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.\n\nMachine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts. For instance, see [this list of cases](https://www.infoq.com/articles/ai-cyber-attacks/), including one in 2018 where an AI controlled a bot net in a DDOS\nattempt that allowed a hacker access to Task Rabbit’s data for over 3 million users. However, up to now, we’ve had no reports where an AI has taken a similar action independently (ie. without human guidance)." }, { "id": 16004, "title": "Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?", "short_title": "Bing on Samsung Phones", "url_title": "Bing on Samsung Phones", "slug": "bing-on-samsung-phones", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-17T18:05:41.039230Z", "published_at": "2023-04-18T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T05:19:38.939298Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-18T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T03:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T03:25:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-18T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", 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"normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16004, "title": "Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-17T18:05:41.039230Z", "open_time": "2023-04-18T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-19T06:22:39.751862Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-19T06:22:39.751862Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T03:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-02T03:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-02T03:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google pays Apple, Samsung, and other phone creators [billions of dollars](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-08/google-pays-enormous-sums-to-maintain-its-dominance-doj-says#xj4y7vzkg) to have Google be the default search provider.\n\nOn February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing that included a new chatbot feature based on OpenAI's GPT-4 [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing). On April 17, 2023, [it was reported](https://www.sammobile.com/news/samsung-galaxy-phones-tablets-bing-search-replace-google-default-search-engine/) that Samsung is considering switching to Bing on [Galaxy phones & tablets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samsung_Galaxy), reportedly because of Bing's AI features.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Samsung announces, before October 1 2023, that they will use Bing for at least one major Samsung Galaxy phone model.", "fine_print": "The announcement must be made by official Samsung PR. The switch to Bing must be on at least one of the Samsung Galaxy Z, S, A, M, or F series phones that is scheduled to be released within 1 year of the announcement. \n\nThe switch to Bing must be active in at least one phone sold in the United States to resolve **Yes**.\n\nThe question resolves **Yes** to the date of the announcement.", "post_id": 16004, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696098197.87454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696098197.87454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.020386496381527657 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.892597084718778, 5.252809465720099, 0.9222722678115349, 0.0392982611038319, 0.09613451011160723, 0.21548448086567315, 0.5177254521460344, 0.0, 0.07741073985238849, 0.14851097121230117, 0.47711655387248203, 0.004140937860262326, 0.0, 0.02813465474885012, 0.0, 0.49072637228749416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013071448897969836, 0.0, 0.001629361525467336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057637412486455035, 0.22992132935388915, 0.0012831903312438614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023700234557073117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031196504298956556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.420923002429978, "coverage": 0.9995794561694517, "baseline_score": 87.42803037525226, "spot_peer_score": 12.09280003108006, "peer_archived_score": 7.420923002429978, "baseline_archived_score": 87.42803037525226, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.09280003108006 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696098197.900553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696098197.900553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 201, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google pays Apple, Samsung, and other phone creators [billions of dollars](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-08/google-pays-enormous-sums-to-maintain-its-dominance-doj-says#xj4y7vzkg) to have Google be the default search provider.\n\nOn February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing that included a new chatbot feature based on OpenAI's GPT-4 [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing). On April 17, 2023, [it was reported](https://www.sammobile.com/news/samsung-galaxy-phones-tablets-bing-search-replace-google-default-search-engine/) that Samsung is considering switching to Bing on [Galaxy phones & tablets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samsung_Galaxy), reportedly because of Bing's AI features." }, { "id": 16003, "title": "Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Google Search with LLM responses", "url_title": "Google Search with LLM responses", "slug": "google-search-with-llm-responses", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-17T18:05:36.729302Z", "published_at": "2023-04-19T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.289072Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-19T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T20:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T20:29:00Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 136, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T04:28:08.227330Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T04:28:08.227330Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 16003, "title": "Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-17T18:05:36.729302Z", "open_time": "2023-04-19T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-20T15:54:23.921292Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-20T15:54:23.921292Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T20:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T20:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-01T20:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-30T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing that included a new chatbot feature based on OpenAI's GPT-4 [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing).\n\nOn March 21, 2023, Google [opened early access](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/21/23649794/google-chatgpt-rival-bard-ai-chatbot-access-hands-on) to \"Bard\", a Large Language Model (LLM) similar to GPT-4. This service is distinct from both Google Search and the Google Assistant.\n\nOn April 17, [various tech outlets reported](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/17/23686108/google-ai-search-tools-magi-chatgpt-bing-samsung-deal) that Google will \"release new AI-powered search tools next month\". The New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/16/technology/google-search-engine-ai.html) \"the new features will be available exclusively in the US, and will be released initially to a maximum of one million users\".\n\nThis question asks whether (a) these AI-powered search tools will include responses from a Large Language Model, and (b) whether they are available to all US users by July 30, more than the <1M US users that Google is expecting by mid-May.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if most US users can reliably give Google queries that return LLM results before August 1, 2023.", "fine_print": "- If unclear whether the feature is available for all US users or for what subset of queries, Metaculus admins in the US will verify by seeing whether they can reliably trigger it themselves.\n\n- Whether Google \"returns LLM results\" will be determined by their nature, i.e. several sentences of text (possibly with links embedded throughout), as opposed to a current typical Google search result with a link on top and a fixed summary of the content below. A telltale sign will be if the interface is conversational.", "post_id": 16003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690743418.774518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690743418.774518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.028341635020077707 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.7671431310104566, 8.557699331734256, 3.4943850098546454, 2.0062249839592976, 0.775473947428053, 1.6175690234126736, 0.09685650394064907, 0.0, 0.20448457818171675, 0.0, 0.31108881172676395, 0.23134046883639756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047605839412529674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47086131558959615, 0.01748991790431776, 0.029170647094607483, 0.0199218711645118, 0.0034758932254840076, 0.0, 0.016373856132249905, 0.020332306072354284, 0.0, 0.006069583664008037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01671533256498449, 0.003196099858940859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022447286774336085, 0.006157807562723195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009616760983646014, 0.0, 0.0005320366584833881, 0.0, 0.0006735119318073969, 0.0, 0.00027525787441196156, 0.001555821826794338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014577056208057426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0058025982581776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022653219418194922, 0.002256050802275833, 0.0011639963892365942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002196193964088765, 9.979284736472126e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001879519758167065, 0.0058250087885089044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004269759992666113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007057249750041771, 0.0016930095601669513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03010988308391113 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 40.73489157170296, "coverage": 0.9993125373941726, "baseline_score": -5.634890441686248, "spot_peer_score": 62.58031392723811, "peer_archived_score": 40.73489157170296, "baseline_archived_score": -5.634890441686248, "spot_peer_archived_score": 62.58031392723811 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690743418.802256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690743418.802256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991688469121488, 0.0008311530878511901 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 372, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 7, 2023, Microsoft began rolling out a major overhaul to Bing that included a new chatbot feature based on OpenAI's GPT-4 [wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing).\n\nOn March 21, 2023, Google [opened early access](https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/21/23649794/google-chatgpt-rival-bard-ai-chatbot-access-hands-on) to \"Bard\", a Large Language Model (LLM) similar to GPT-4. This service is distinct from both Google Search and the Google Assistant.\n\nOn April 17, [various tech outlets reported](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/17/23686108/google-ai-search-tools-magi-chatgpt-bing-samsung-deal) that Google will \"release new AI-powered search tools next month\". The New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/16/technology/google-search-engine-ai.html) \"the new features will be available exclusively in the US, and will be released initially to a maximum of one million users\".\n\nThis question asks whether (a) these AI-powered search tools will include responses from a Large Language Model, and (b) whether they are available to all US users by July 30, more than the <1M US users that Google is expecting by mid-May." }, { "id": 15973, "title": "Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?", "short_title": "Starship Liftoff before May 1, 2023?", "url_title": "Starship Liftoff before May 1, 2023?", "slug": "starship-liftoff-before-may-1-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-17T15:01:04.470542Z", "published_at": "2023-04-17T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.966228Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15973, "title": "Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-17T15:01:04.470542Z", "open_time": "2023-04-17T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-18T00:06:53.521246Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-18T00:06:53.521246Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-20T13:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-20T13:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-20T13:35:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 14th, SpaceX [received a launch license](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15688/starship-launch-license-before-apr-15-2023/) for its [Starship spacecraft](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). A launch [scheduled for April 17th](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-rocket-super-heavy-launch-what-time) was scrubbed due to a [frozen valve](https://www.npr.org/2023/04/17/1170355237/watch-live-spacex-launch-starship-rocket). SpaceX CEO Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1647955325763592193):\n\n> Learned a lot today, now offloading propellant, retrying in a few days …", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Starship leaves the launchpad intact and under its own power before 11:59pm ET on Sunday, April 30th.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15973, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681997842.685311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681997842.685311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8099778533056804 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0032942504413227035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001821789957966981, 0.0, 0.012023428955703545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30254219701717905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0663340558700189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013550076875576434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025392582078955267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32374300958340624, 0.0, 0.4644294413422424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002255205898776533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.253864589656723, 0.4502118393382578, 0.3700306976932953, 0.035159820106228076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14652846223951663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2487069520536561, 0.6929567798100252, 0.0, 0.7626549279923052, 0.015220610711278141, 0.005367575538696657, 0.816920648473138, 0.0, 0.8352625781402054, 0.23171414716612537, 0.06084405894284453, 1.8602865396021917, 0.6177039404822752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5056088899573001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22925142923916692, 1.0649249083081929, 0.10035857595838486, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.9231239965202638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.173891993653193 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.2819354803244427, "coverage": 0.20893797308345874, "baseline_score": 11.833815942050906, "spot_peer_score": 4.815652650531863, "peer_archived_score": 3.2819354803244427, "baseline_archived_score": 11.833815942050906, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.815652650531863 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681997325.625788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681997325.625788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22882736731301234, 0.7711726326869877 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 152, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 14th, SpaceX [received a launch license](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15688/starship-launch-license-before-apr-15-2023/) for its [Starship spacecraft](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). A launch [scheduled for April 17th](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-rocket-super-heavy-launch-what-time) was scrubbed due to a [frozen valve](https://www.npr.org/2023/04/17/1170355237/watch-live-spacex-launch-starship-rocket). SpaceX CEO Elon Musk [tweeted](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1647955325763592193):\n\n> Learned a lot today, now offloading propellant, retrying in a few days …" }, { "id": 15965, "title": "Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?", "short_title": "Control of Sudan Usurped Before June 15?", "url_title": "Control of Sudan Usurped Before June 15?", "slug": "control-of-sudan-usurped-before-june-15", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-04-16T13:24:25.226897Z", "published_at": "2023-05-11T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.168388Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-11T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T14:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T14:41:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-11T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2219, "type": "tournament", "name": "📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰", "slug": "breaking-news", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/breakingnewsimage.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-04-04T19:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-07-08T11:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-07-01T17:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15965, "title": "Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-04-16T13:24:25.226897Z", "open_time": "2023-05-11T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-13T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-13T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T14:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-15T14:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-15T14:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 15, 2023, [fighting erupted in Sudan](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/15/africa/sudan-presidential-palace-intl/index.html) between the paramilitary [Rapid Support Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces) (RSF) and the Sudanese army. Sudan has been under military control since a [coup in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Sudanese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), governed by a body known as the [Transitional Sovereignty Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transitional_Sovereignty_Council) (TSC), whose control was reaffirmed by [another coup in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat). The TSC is led by [Abdel Fattah al-Burhan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdel_Fattah_al-Burhan), Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces. The position of deputy chairman of the TSC is held by [Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemedti), generally referred to as \"Hemedti\", who is the commander of the RSF.\n\n[Unwilling to cede influence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23712710/sudan-war-khartoum-burhan-hemedt-rsf) amid negotiations over a deal to transition to a civilian government, the two military commanders are now engaged in a battle for control of Sudan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 15, 2023, credible sources report that Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has fled the country or is no longer the *de facto* leader of the Sudanese government. Qualifying reports might describe either another group or individual as the new *de facto* leader, or explicitly refer to al-Burhan as no longer being in power for any reason. If there is no such reporting before June 15, 2023, this question will resolve as **No**. Metaculus will assess the available reports to determine whether they satisfy these criteria, and may resolve as **Ambiguous** if it is unclear if the available reporting satisfies these criteria or if there are conflicting reports.", "fine_print": "* Metaculus may wait for confirmation from multiple credible sources before resolving.\n\n* Speculative reporting that does not indicate a change in status (for example, some previous reports have suggested that the RSF leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), [is the *de facto* leader of Sudan](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/06/18/warlord-wrecking-sudans-revolution/)) will not qualify, unless a change to the status quo was also reported.", "post_id": 15965, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686776024.462034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686776024.462034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.012721558566497534 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.7050019513823, 2.438593499695444, 1.3052227299099757, 0.8205645819477725, 0.0, 0.339927454646054, 0.0016681565683498104, 0.10184620213798772, 0.0, 0.0490743809829292, 0.0509828498738131, 0.0, 0.02214264978065527, 0.0, 0.028223255188921492, 0.015248926387349431, 0.002996681779674101, 0.24484609769994412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.457894353898988, "coverage": 0.9997243752875156, "baseline_score": 89.01146989949834, "spot_peer_score": 0.772005475707302, "peer_archived_score": 3.457894353898988, "baseline_archived_score": 89.01146989949834, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.772005475707302 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686776024.481392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686776024.481392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 15, 2023, [fighting erupted in Sudan](https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/15/africa/sudan-presidential-palace-intl/index.html) between the paramilitary [Rapid Support Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces) (RSF) and the Sudanese army. Sudan has been under military control since a [coup in 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Sudanese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), governed by a body known as the [Transitional Sovereignty Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transitional_Sovereignty_Council) (TSC), whose control was reaffirmed by [another coup in 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudan_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat). The TSC is led by [Abdel Fattah al-Burhan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdel_Fattah_al-Burhan), Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces. The position of deputy chairman of the TSC is held by [Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hemedti), generally referred to as \"Hemedti\", who is the commander of the RSF.\n\n[Unwilling to cede influence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23712710/sudan-war-khartoum-burhan-hemedt-rsf) amid negotiations over a deal to transition to a civilian government, the two military commanders are now engaged in a battle for control of Sudan." } ] }
