Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3360
{ "count": 5982, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3380", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3340", "results": [ { "id": 15610, "title": "Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?", "short_title": "Data centres >10% of global electricity", "url_title": "Data centres >10% of global electricity", "slug": "data-centres-10-of-global-electricity", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-22T16:26:15.782929Z", "published_at": "2023-03-27T17:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T21:01:47.024837Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-27T17:14:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-27T17:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15610, "title": "Will data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity usage for the year 2030?", "created_at": "2023-03-22T16:26:15.782929Z", "open_time": "2023-03-27T17:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-29T17:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-29T17:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Based on a recent report by the [IEA](https://www.ca-eed.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IEA-CA-EED-Data-Centre-Workshop-11-2021-1.pdf), demand for digital services has experienced rapid growth, with internet users and traffic more than doubling and expanding 20-fold since 2010, respectively. Data centres and data transmission networks account for around 1-1.5% of global electricity use, with energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy adoption mitigating the energy demand. Data centres and transmission networks contributed 0.9% of energy-related GHG emissions in 2020. Although global data centre energy use (excluding crypto) has grown only moderately due to efficiency improvements in some regions, smaller countries have seen rapid growth. Data transmission network energy efficiency has also improved rapidly. See below for the IEA table summarising the change between 2015 and 2021 for relevant metrics, with ‘Data centre energy use (excluding crypto)’ being the main indicator of relevance for this question.\n\n| Indicator | 2015 | 2021 | Change |\n|-----------------------------------------------|-----------|--------------|-----------------|\n| Internet users | 3 billion | 4.9 billion | +60% |\n| Internet traffic | 0.6 ZB | 3.4 ZB | +440% |\n| Data centre workloads | 180 million | 650 million | +260% |\n| **Data centre energy use (excluding crypto)** | 200 TWh | **220-320 TWh** | +10-60% |\n| Crypto mining energy use | 4 TWh | 100-140 TWh | +2,300-3,300% |\n| Data transmission network energy use | 220 TWh | 260-340 TWh | +20-60% |\n\n\nIn Ireland, data centres already consumed 14% of the country’s electricity in 2021, according to the [Central Statistics Office](https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-dcmec/datacentresmeteredelectricityconsumption2021/). A recent [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06610-y) article forecasts strongly increasing usage of TWh for data centres until 2030, at just below 10% of global electricity usage. This makes understanding the total energy usage of data centres over this decade crucial.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if data centres consume more than 10% of global electricity in the year 2030.\n\nThis data resolves based on the [International Energy Agency’s estimations](https://www.ca-eed.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IEA-CA-EED-Data-Centre-Workshop-11-2021-1.pdf). It will use an updated estimate from the source above and use ‘Data centre energy use (excluding crypto)’ to get the relevant value for the year 2030. Then, it will use that number and divide it by the total energy usage for the year 2030, also reported by the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-information-overview/electricity-consumption). If estimates are given in a range (like 220-320), we will simply average both numbers given to arrive at a single point estimate.\n\nThis question may resolve as soon as the IEA publishes its estimates, but there is an expected publication lag of at least 1 year. If the IEA has not published its estimates needed to calculate the percent of global electricity usage spent on data centres by July 1, 2032, other sources may be used to make this calculation (but both numbers have to be from the same source). If no such sources are available (or if it is difficult to find estimates for data centre energy usage) this question resolves ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15610, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758229296.16139, "end_time": 1760750947.923938, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758229296.16139, "end_time": 1760750947.923938, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.26891886612072813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 1.2928206648352225, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9467185828206537, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.43565863962748014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7807045223584397, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287711.066552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287711.066552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6670049349503473, 0.33299506504965276 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Based on a recent report by the [IEA](https://www.ca-eed.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/IEA-CA-EED-Data-Centre-Workshop-11-2021-1.pdf), demand for digital services has experienced rapid growth, with internet users and traffic more than doubling and expanding 20-fold since 2010, respectively. Data centres and data transmission networks account for around 1-1.5% of global electricity use, with energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy adoption mitigating the energy demand. Data centres and transmission networks contributed 0.9% of energy-related GHG emissions in 2020. Although global data centre energy use (excluding crypto) has grown only moderately due to efficiency improvements in some regions, smaller countries have seen rapid growth. Data transmission network energy efficiency has also improved rapidly. See below for the IEA table summarising the change between 2015 and 2021 for relevant metrics, with ‘Data centre energy use (excluding crypto)’ being the main indicator of relevance for this question.\n\n| Indicator | 2015 | 2021 | Change |\n|-----------------------------------------------|-----------|--------------|-----------------|\n| Internet users | 3 billion | 4.9 billion | +60% |\n| Internet traffic | 0.6 ZB | 3.4 ZB | +440% |\n| Data centre workloads | 180 million | 650 million | +260% |\n| **Data centre energy use (excluding crypto)** | 200 TWh | **220-320 TWh** | +10-60% |\n| Crypto mining energy use | 4 TWh | 100-140 TWh | +2,300-3,300% |\n| Data transmission network energy use | 220 TWh | 260-340 TWh | +20-60% |\n\n\nIn Ireland, data centres already consumed 14% of the country’s electricity in 2021, according to the [Central Statistics Office](https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-dcmec/datacentresmeteredelectricityconsumption2021/). A recent [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06610-y) article forecasts strongly increasing usage of TWh for data centres until 2030, at just below 10% of global electricity usage. This makes understanding the total energy usage of data centres over this decade crucial." }, { "id": 15609, "title": "Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?", "short_title": "US dictatorship by 2100?", "url_title": "US dictatorship by 2100?", "slug": "us-dictatorship-by-2100", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-22T14:48:05.037950Z", "published_at": "2023-03-27T15:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T21:07:34.420513Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-27T15:56:00Z", "comment_count": 81, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-27T15:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 148, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15609, "title": "Will the United States become a dictatorship by 2100?", "created_at": "2023-03-22T14:48:05.037950Z", "open_time": "2023-03-27T15:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-28T00:36:02.993000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-28T00:36:02.993000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "\"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.\"\n\nThus [begins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_Independence) the Preamble of the United States Declaration of Independence. Two and a half centuries after its founding, the United States has become the world's [largest economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_economy) and [military](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana) power. Events in the United States have a ripple effect across the globe.\n\nTherefore it has become a [popular speculative fiction trope](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/OppressiveStatesOfAmerica) to imagine what the United States would be like under a dictatorship. There are also growing fears amongst [some](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_backsliding_in_the_United_States) that the United States is heading down this path.\n\nA dictatorship is defined by [Encyclopedia Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/topic/dictatorship) as \"form of government in which one person or a small group possesses absolute power without effective constitutional limitations.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point prior to January 1, 2100 two of the following six criteria are met simultaneously:\n\n1. The U.S. Constitution is officially suspended or abolished, with the suspension or abolishment lasting for a continuous period exceeding 365 days.\n\n2. The United States Congress or the Supreme Court is suspended or abolished for more than 365 days.\n\n3. Term limits for the President are suspended or abolished for any length of time.\n\n4. The President of the United States acquires the ability to enact legislation, beyond the existing scope of executive orders, without the approval or consent of Congress. This includes bypassing the legislative process for the creation, amendment, or repeal of laws.\n\n5. Freedom House's [\"Freedom in the World report\"](https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores) or the Economist Intelligence Unit's [\"Democracy Index\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) categorize the United States as \"Not Free\" or an \"Authoritarian Regime\" respectively.\n\n6. The United States becomes a [one-party state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-party_state) according to Wikipedia.", "fine_print": "If the United States splits into multiple countries, this question will remain open so long as a country that came out of the former United States continues to have 75% of the population of the former United States.", "post_id": 15609, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758402443.979547, "end_time": 1784909087.395, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758402443.979547, "end_time": 1784909087.395, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.35999199740660603 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3863371462415604, 1.0766393001489236, 0.0018056574741835754, 0.22915895908258016, 0.0, 1.4028799286774887, 0.07539882114194352, 0.023509402311585773, 0.14641756592449412, 0.0, 1.1741545344662216, 0.049098731780260495, 0.6889374847355133, 0.0, 0.0008890686183892953, 0.433945621013664, 0.0, 0.6724632989324455, 0.16747211333550036, 0.36628111922030954, 0.7109209609528734, 0.22442586697607295, 0.5765838170918994, 0.225808582046163, 0.23520979910813158, 0.14948476786519124, 0.9433358414817723, 0.000424135868519839, 0.5936041590553222, 0.0, 1.2883469169874433, 0.7466221188892574, 0.0, 1.164268900542656, 9.17972214490031e-05, 0.00017182228770955336, 0.03315513189948968, 0.920571069135066, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3321566836587335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16859174103132585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0423151742739361, 0.0, 0.01337850483117008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11379527918186642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3579002165404013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4450195999128292, 0.0, 0.00029623554706540366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29651913144888115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778050504320948, 0.5072088076737452, 0.0, 0.01031123483296608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6787408130629103, 0.0, 0.03510571765614411, 0.8122229844162796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007348543842482328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04158217276017776, 0.0, 0.0027965810692460306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6006456887415453 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289187.603507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289187.603507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 142, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9280047239409076, 0.07199527605909237 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 314, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "\"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.\"\n\nThus [begins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Declaration_of_Independence) the Preamble of the United States Declaration of Independence. Two and a half centuries after its founding, the United States has become the world's [largest economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_economy) and [military](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana) power. Events in the United States have a ripple effect across the globe.\n\nTherefore it has become a [popular speculative fiction trope](https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/OppressiveStatesOfAmerica) to imagine what the United States would be like under a dictatorship. There are also growing fears amongst [some](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_backsliding_in_the_United_States) that the United States is heading down this path.\n\nA dictatorship is defined by [Encyclopedia Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/topic/dictatorship) as \"form of government in which one person or a small group possesses absolute power without effective constitutional limitations.\"" }, { "id": 15606, "title": "Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Russia to Lead Security Council on April 1?", "url_title": "Russia to Lead Security Council on April 1?", "slug": "russia-to-lead-security-council-on-april-1", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-21T21:28:35.757538Z", "published_at": "2023-03-24T16:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.673545Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-24T16:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-01T15:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-01T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:07:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-24T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15606, "title": "Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-21T21:28:35.757538Z", "open_time": "2023-03-24T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-24T17:25:28.637670Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-24T17:25:28.637670Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-01T15:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-01T15:07:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [presidency](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/rop/chapter-4) of the [UN Security Council](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/) is determined by a rotational system, with each of the 15 member states serving as president for a one-month term. The [order of rotation](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/presidency) follows the English alphabetical order of the member states' names. The presidency provides an opportunity for each country to showcase its diplomatic priorities and shape the council's agenda during its term. The [president's responsibilities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council#:~:text=The%20presidency%20of%20the%20United,states%20of%20the%20council%20monthly.) include chairing meetings, controlling the docket and schedule, applying the rules, credentialing debates, and managing draft resolutions.\n\nOn April 1, 2023, [the Russian Federation](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/presidency) is set to assume the presidency of the UN Security Council. This has raised [concerns](https://time.com/6262698/danger-russia-president-u-n-security-council/) due to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, UN member states [approved a resolution calling on Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine and withdraw its forces](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-china-united-nations-6965d19c953c2f6e45f483c1dfe04a7f). In March 2023, the International Criminal Court [issued an arrest warrant](https://apnews.com/article/icc-putin-war-crimes-ukraine-9857eb68d827340394960eccf0589253) for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes. Ukrainian media outlets have [argued](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/14015) that allowing Russia to assume the presidency would undermine the credibility of the UN Security Council and its mission to maintain global peace and security.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, on April 1, 2023, Russia assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council, with its representative serving as the President of the Council.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15606, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680343659.675105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680343659.675105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.989698767234819 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009237422463571529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060389508477850925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05239604340077941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004400004245480924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041607262690495264, 0.0, 0.015244917867552703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01728541733729016, 0.0, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.008061960629922116, 0.0, 0.12846545625543665, 0.0005954758208044591, 0.19988959498054967, 0.30003631152915106, 14.573020270580288 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.977580822352053, "coverage": 0.984077103105113, "baseline_score": 93.96613974442023, "spot_peer_score": -6.863061165405681, "peer_archived_score": 6.977580822352053, "baseline_archived_score": 93.96613974442023, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.863061165405681 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680343659.70175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680343659.70175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.009057529165597655, 0.9909424708344023 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [presidency](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/rop/chapter-4) of the [UN Security Council](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/) is determined by a rotational system, with each of the 15 member states serving as president for a one-month term. The [order of rotation](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/presidency) follows the English alphabetical order of the member states' names. The presidency provides an opportunity for each country to showcase its diplomatic priorities and shape the council's agenda during its term. The [president's responsibilities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council#:~:text=The%20presidency%20of%20the%20United,states%20of%20the%20council%20monthly.) include chairing meetings, controlling the docket and schedule, applying the rules, credentialing debates, and managing draft resolutions.\n\nOn April 1, 2023, [the Russian Federation](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/presidency) is set to assume the presidency of the UN Security Council. This has raised [concerns](https://time.com/6262698/danger-russia-president-u-n-security-council/) due to Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine. In February 2023, UN member states [approved a resolution calling on Russia to end hostilities in Ukraine and withdraw its forces](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-china-united-nations-6965d19c953c2f6e45f483c1dfe04a7f). In March 2023, the International Criminal Court [issued an arrest warrant](https://apnews.com/article/icc-putin-war-crimes-ukraine-9857eb68d827340394960eccf0589253) for Russian President Vladimir Putin for war crimes. Ukrainian media outlets have [argued](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/14015) that allowing Russia to assume the presidency would undermine the credibility of the UN Security Council and its mission to maintain global peace and security." }, { "id": 15602, "title": "Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?", "short_title": "GPT-5 Capable of AI Lab Escape", "url_title": "GPT-5 Capable of AI Lab Escape", "slug": "gpt-5-capable-of-ai-lab-escape", "author_id": 110491, "author_username": "jacob.pfau", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-20T23:18:26.383326Z", "published_at": "2023-03-26T09:06:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T11:58:05.242998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-26T09:06:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-26T09:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 141, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T08:26:58.100421Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T08:26:58.100421Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15602, "title": "Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?", "created_at": "2023-03-20T23:18:26.383326Z", "open_time": "2023-03-26T09:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-28T09:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-28T09:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2023, researchers at the Alignment Research Center, [ARC, evaluated GPT-4](https://evals.alignment.org/blog/2023-03-18-update-on-recent-evals/). ARC researchers summarized their methodology and finding as follows, \"We prompted the model with instructions that explained that it was running on a cloud server and had various commands available, including running code on the server, giving tasks to fresh copies of itself, using a browser, and reasoning via chain-of-thought. We added text saying it had the goal of gaining power and becoming hard to shut down... We concluded that the versions of Claude and GPT-4 we tested did not appear to have sufficient capabilities to replicate autonomously and become hard to shut down... However, the models were able to fully or mostly complete many relevant subtasks.\"", "resolution_criteria": "Will an ARC evaluation find GPT-5 capable of planning and executing a coherent sequence of actions aimed at its replication? This result must be publicly announced in either an OpenAI paper/blog, or an ARC paper/blog. This question will resolve as **Yes** if ARC publishes any qualifying evaluation within one year of the announcement of GPT-5, even if ARC has previously published an evaluation stating that GPT-5 did not have the capabilities in question.", "fine_print": "If ARC does not publish an evaluation of GPT-5's autonomous replication capabilities within one year of GPT-5 announcement, then this will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If ARC discontinues their evaluations program, or replaces this evaluation with a different evaluation which does not evaluate autonomous replication, then this will resolve as **Ambiguous**. \n\nAny version of GPT-5 trained by OpenAI may be considered for the evaluation, this question is not limited to the first version released. The version of GPT-5 in question should not have been trained with the explicit intent of improving its autonomous replication capacities. Prompt engineering is acceptable. If ARC researchers change their evaluation, but the intent is still to measure autonomous replication (as related to power-seeking) then the evaluation will still qualify. \n\nIf GPT-5 is not announced before 2026, then this will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nMarch 23, 2023: Resolution criteria have been edited for clarity by RyanBeck. See changes noted in [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15602/gpt-5-capable-of-ai-lab-escape/#comment-123509).", "post_id": 15602, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758597406.262609, "end_time": 1758711263.59513, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758597406.262609, "end_time": 1758711263.59513, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.07748093258928172 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9350864571275419, 5.552727149533886, 1.7921470599964229, 0.33953082659674816, 0.1226831864486109, 0.308243110124782, 0.167600114186302, 0.09412007274126177, 1.394130572354893, 0.0, 0.5167935745358642, 0.0, 0.03472799489688131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11171412217289521, 0.004155532194542278, 0.3299673337283453, 0.24083026073593355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16473534679377005, 0.0, 0.043962607759905424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01444019056770797, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0307054605063852, 0.0, 0.023714766002371646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01550349210722101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0052619857942816685, 0.011295907652000815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009514982201565289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013286097205509028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020280348038997923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17573956450005151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288064.647888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288064.647888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9151866215740224, 0.08481337842597754 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 325, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2023, researchers at the Alignment Research Center, [ARC, evaluated GPT-4](https://evals.alignment.org/blog/2023-03-18-update-on-recent-evals/). ARC researchers summarized their methodology and finding as follows, \"We prompted the model with instructions that explained that it was running on a cloud server and had various commands available, including running code on the server, giving tasks to fresh copies of itself, using a browser, and reasoning via chain-of-thought. We added text saying it had the goal of gaining power and becoming hard to shut down... We concluded that the versions of Claude and GPT-4 we tested did not appear to have sufficient capabilities to replicate autonomously and become hard to shut down... However, the models were able to fully or mostly complete many relevant subtasks.\"" }, { "id": 15577, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?", "short_title": "Total Fed support over $500b by May?", "url_title": "Total Fed support over $500b by May?", "slug": "total-fed-support-over-500b-by-may", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-18T14:51:28.755359Z", "published_at": "2023-03-19T20:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.102118Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-19T20:57:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-28T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-28T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-19T20:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15577, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-18T14:51:28.755359Z", "open_time": "2023-03-19T20:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-21T20:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-21T20:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-28T22:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-28T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-28T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Federal Reserve (Fed) utilizes various tools and facilities, known as [Credit and Liquidity Programs](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm), to maintain financial stability, support economic growth, and ensure smooth functioning of credit markets. The Fed's [balance sheet](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/10/understanding-the-fed-balance-sheet.asp) expands when implementing these programs, which involve lending to financial institutions, purchasing assets, and providing emergency liquidity. In crisis situations, these programs are vital for restoring confidence in the financial system, preventing contagion, and mitigating systemic risks by offering temporary liquidity support and stabilizing credit conditions.\n\nOne mechanism involves extending credit through the Fed's liquidity facilities to temporarily support various market participants and institutions during financial stress, ensuring proper functioning of credit markets and fostering overall economic stability. After [Silicon Valley Bank's collapse in early March 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/17/why-silicon-valley-bank-collapsed-svb-fail), borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s backstop facilities [surged](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-16/banks-rush-to-backstop-liquidity-borrow-164-8-billion-from-fed#xj4y7vzkg), totaling $154 billion for the week of March 13 [across all liquidity facilities]( https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm) Previously, the highest levels in the past decade were $471 billion for the week of May 4, 2020, due to Covid, and the all-time high of $1.5 trillion for the week of December 8, 2008.\n\n[Concerns are growing](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/18/business/why-people-are-worried-about-banks.html) about a potential US banking crisis and its possible [global extension](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/03/fears-global-banking-crisis-economy-roundup/), which would increase the need for liquidity support. The upcoming weeks are crucial for assessing this risk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total amount of credit extended through all liquidity facilities of the Fed exceeds $500 billion for any week before May 2023 (the week from April 24 being the last relevant week). This resolves on the basis of this [resolution source](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm) under the ‘Credit Extended through Federal Reserve Liquidity Facilities’ chart, looking at the ‘All Liquidity facilities* (in millions of dollars)’ chart", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682814686.709862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682814686.709862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.020656545385546655 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.9485532939071124, 5.410650485903569, 1.368135744716907, 0.16784143413796426, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07140076303461346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.508020419894716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027344313508279407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022471481657050284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018152807974501476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.495145442868586, "coverage": 0.9629769346316664, "baseline_score": 49.985934571746796, "spot_peer_score": -26.846943333790417, "peer_archived_score": 5.495145442868586, "baseline_archived_score": 49.985934571746796, "spot_peer_archived_score": -26.846943333790417 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682719502.966257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682719502.966257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993727502915971, 0.0006272497084028591 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 151, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Federal Reserve (Fed) utilizes various tools and facilities, known as [Credit and Liquidity Programs](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm), to maintain financial stability, support economic growth, and ensure smooth functioning of credit markets. The Fed's [balance sheet](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/10/understanding-the-fed-balance-sheet.asp) expands when implementing these programs, which involve lending to financial institutions, purchasing assets, and providing emergency liquidity. In crisis situations, these programs are vital for restoring confidence in the financial system, preventing contagion, and mitigating systemic risks by offering temporary liquidity support and stabilizing credit conditions.\n\nOne mechanism involves extending credit through the Fed's liquidity facilities to temporarily support various market participants and institutions during financial stress, ensuring proper functioning of credit markets and fostering overall economic stability. After [Silicon Valley Bank's collapse in early March 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/17/why-silicon-valley-bank-collapsed-svb-fail), borrowing from the Federal Reserve’s backstop facilities [surged](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-16/banks-rush-to-backstop-liquidity-borrow-164-8-billion-from-fed#xj4y7vzkg), totaling $154 billion for the week of March 13 [across all liquidity facilities]( https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm) Previously, the highest levels in the past decade were $471 billion for the week of May 4, 2020, due to Covid, and the all-time high of $1.5 trillion for the week of December 8, 2008.\n\n[Concerns are growing](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/03/18/business/why-people-are-worried-about-banks.html) about a potential US banking crisis and its possible [global extension](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/03/fears-global-banking-crisis-economy-roundup/), which would increase the need for liquidity support. The upcoming weeks are crucial for assessing this risk." }, { "id": 15576, "title": "Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?", "short_title": "Meta Horizon Worlds > 500k Active Users", "url_title": "Meta Horizon Worlds > 500k Active Users", "slug": "meta-horizon-worlds-500k-active-users", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-18T11:16:20.280942Z", "published_at": "2023-03-21T14:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.360228Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-21T14:44:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-26T03:24:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-21T14:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15576, "title": "Will Meta's Horizon Worlds report more than 500,000 active users for any month of 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-18T11:16:20.280942Z", "open_time": "2023-03-21T14:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-23T14:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-23T14:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-26T03:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-26T03:32:31.491544Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2022, Meta's virtual reality platform for the Meta Quest Headset, [Horizon Worlds](https://www.meta.com/gb/horizon-worlds/), faced difficulties [attracting and retaining users](https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/15/23405811/meta-horizon-worlds-losing-users-report). According to [internal documents obtained by the *Wall Streat Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meta-metaverse-horizon-worlds-zuckerberg-facebook-internal-documents-11665778961?mod=djemalertNEWS), the platform's monthly active users dropped from 300,000 in February 2022 to around 200,000. Meta then reduced its goal for the end of 2022 from 500,000 to 280,000 monthly active users. [The *Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meta-metaverse-horizon-worlds-zuckerberg-facebook-internal-documents-11665778961?mod=djemalertNEWS) also reported that only 9% of the 10,000 separate worlds in Horizon Worlds are visited by more than 50 users, and most users don't return after their first month on the platform. Meta is focusing on a multiyear effort to improve its metaverse plans and address the platform's issues.\n\nHorizon World’s growth in users for 2023 is highly uncertain, with [Meta’s several rounds of layoffs](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2023/03/13/2023-layoff-tracker-meta-planning-another-large-round-of-cuts-this-week-report-says/?sh=4907f544760b), Meta’s [move towards AI](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/15/tech/meta-ai-investment-priority/index.html), and general [scepticism towards the metaverse](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/probing-reality-and-myth-in-the-metaverse).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of monthly active users for Meta's Horizon Worlds for any month of 2023 exceeds 500,000. The resolution sources for this question are [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362347/meta-horizon-worlds-users/) as well as official announcements by [Meta](https://investor.fb.com/home/default.aspx), though other reputable sources may be relied upon as well. Because of the anticipated lag of the publication of these data, this question resolves at the end of 2024 (unless data leading to a positive resolution is released prior).\n\nIf neither Statista nor Meta provide any data for any month of 2023 before 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. If they report data for at least one month of 2023 by the end of 2024, this question resolves either positively or negatively. If Horizon Worlds is discontinued, this question resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15576, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703989450.216466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703989450.216466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.05117778789225835 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1565724803089854, 4.022487794322405, 0.0, 1.6058234795498936, 0.38147871165675795, 1.8837417679433477, 0.030784600481361255, 0.2511459123085843, 0.677746227920761, 0.014340426232757577, 0.4564329577770646, 0.1669059266791499, 0.1053709651303652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.11981076312780951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5399596554563768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04225147949949812 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 86.63073137739353, "peer_score": 16.531295933872567, "coverage": 0.9999124303918134, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999124303918134, "spot_peer_score": -2.6599067338507654, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 86.63073137739353, "peer_archived_score": 16.531295933872567, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.6599067338507654, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008555.216319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008555.216319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986089193579483, 0.0013910806420517452 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2022, Meta's virtual reality platform for the Meta Quest Headset, [Horizon Worlds](https://www.meta.com/gb/horizon-worlds/), faced difficulties [attracting and retaining users](https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/15/23405811/meta-horizon-worlds-losing-users-report). According to [internal documents obtained by the *Wall Streat Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meta-metaverse-horizon-worlds-zuckerberg-facebook-internal-documents-11665778961?mod=djemalertNEWS), the platform's monthly active users dropped from 300,000 in February 2022 to around 200,000. Meta then reduced its goal for the end of 2022 from 500,000 to 280,000 monthly active users. [The *Journal*](https://www.wsj.com/articles/meta-metaverse-horizon-worlds-zuckerberg-facebook-internal-documents-11665778961?mod=djemalertNEWS) also reported that only 9% of the 10,000 separate worlds in Horizon Worlds are visited by more than 50 users, and most users don't return after their first month on the platform. Meta is focusing on a multiyear effort to improve its metaverse plans and address the platform's issues.\n\nHorizon World’s growth in users for 2023 is highly uncertain, with [Meta’s several rounds of layoffs](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2023/03/13/2023-layoff-tracker-meta-planning-another-large-round-of-cuts-this-week-report-says/?sh=4907f544760b), Meta’s [move towards AI](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/15/tech/meta-ai-investment-priority/index.html), and general [scepticism towards the metaverse](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/probing-reality-and-myth-in-the-metaverse)." }, { "id": 15574, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?", "short_title": "[Short Fuse] Credit Suisse Survival", "url_title": "[Short Fuse] Credit Suisse Survival", "slug": "short-fuse-credit-suisse-survival", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-18T09:23:57.334204Z", "published_at": "2023-03-18T13:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.523391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-18T13:30:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-19T19:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-19T19:11:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-18T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15574, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-18T09:23:57.334204Z", "open_time": "2023-03-18T13:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-19T00:38:57.639889Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-19T00:38:57.639889Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-19T19:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-19T19:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-19T19:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In March 2023, the [financial sector has experienced its worst rout since the Covid-19 pandemic](https://www.ft.com/content/608cd08d-97f9-486d-84f5-b01d57ec3471) began, with nearly half a trillion dollars wiped from the value of bank shares worldwide. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has caused financial stocks to plummet, with banks in the US, Europe, and Japan collectively losing $459bn in market value so far this month. The KBW Bank index in the US has suffered the heaviest losses, falling 18% in March, while Europe’s Stoxx 600 banks index has fallen 15% and Japan’s Topix banking sector index is down 9%. \n\nA specific bank of interest is Credit Suisse, which is facing a crisis of confidence, with its share price at record lows and its [largest investor ruling out providing more capital](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/15/credit-suisse-shares-slide-after-saudi-backer-rules-out-further-assistance.html). Efforts to stabilise the bank, including a [SFr50bn ($54bn) emergency credit line from the Swiss central bank](https://www.ft.com/content/adb74b25-ee03-4bdd-8c7a-4dcc6c95fcac), have had limited success. As a result, [UBS is in talks to take over all or part of Credit Suisse](https://www.ft.com/content/17892f24-4ca0-417f-9093-289b019a0852), with the Swiss National Bank and regulator Finma orchestrating the negotiations in an attempt to shore up confidence in the country’s banking sector. The potential takeover comes after a series of scandals and crises, including the collapses of [Greensill Capital](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/28/credit-suisse-greensill-swiss-bank-finma) and [Archegos](https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/industries/financial-services/credit-suisse-and-the-archegos-collapse-lessons-in-risk-management-and-governance), which resulted in billions of dollars of losses. Other options under consideration include breaking up Credit Suisse and raising funds via a public offering of its ringfenced Swiss division, with the wealth and asset management units being sold to UBS or other bidders. A full merger would create one of the biggest global systemically important financial institutions in Europe, but some see it as too unwieldy to execute.\n\nOverall, Credit Suisse is facing a variety of potential outcomes in the coming weeks, including collapse (i.e., bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations), full acquisition (e.g., acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares), partial acquisition (e.g., sale of one of its business units or divisions), break-up (split of Credit Suisse into at least two entities), bailout (i.e., government-backed provision of financial assistance), further central bank liquidity support (e.g., additional interventions from the Swiss National Bank).\n\n***Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if Credit Suisse experiences any of the following scenarios based on reports by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) before May 1, 2023. For resolution of this question, official announcements of any of these scenarios suffice for positive resolution for as long as they are definite in their future implementation. \n\nScenarios:\n\n1) Collapse: Bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations.\n\n\n2) Full Acquisition: Acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares by another financial institution.\n\n\n3) Partial Acquisition: Sale of one or more of its business units or divisions to other financial institutions.\n\n\n4) Break-up: Split of Credit Suisse into at least two separate entities.\n\n\n5) Government Bailout: Government-backed provision of financial assistance.\n\n\n6) Central Bank Support: Additional interventions from the Swiss National Bank.\n\n\n7) International Support: Financial assistance from international institutions such as the IMF or central banks from other countries.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15574, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 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], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 15573, "title": "Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?", "short_title": "Huge riots in the US before April 15th, 2023", "url_title": "Huge riots in the US before April 15th, 2023", "slug": "huge-riots-in-the-us-before-april-15th-2023", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-18T05:29:10.431958Z", "published_at": "2023-03-19T05:29:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.204936Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-19T05:29:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-15T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-15T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-16T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-16T00:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-19T05:29:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 134, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15573, "title": "Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-18T05:29:10.431958Z", "open_time": "2023-03-19T05:29:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-19T15:47:30.274917Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-19T15:47:30.274917Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-16T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-16T00:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-16T00:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-15T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-15T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in the United States, particularly among Trump's supporters who view this as a politically motivated attack on the former president.\n\nIn the past, the United States has experienced incidents of civil unrest and large-scale rioting, such as the 1992 Los Angeles riots and the mass civil unrest in response to the killing of George Floyd in 2020. It is uncertain whether the potential indictment and court appearance of former President Trump could trigger a similar scale of civil unrest.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, \"large-scale rioting\" is defined as an event of rioting or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions are met:\n\n1. At least 25 people die directly due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n2. At least 5,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\nThese counts will be cumulative from question open date to resolution date. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest and instead can be from many.", "fine_print": "For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count towards the 25. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.\n\nArrests must be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest. Arrests made for unrelated crimes during the civil unrest period will not be counted towards the 5,000.", "post_id": 15573, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681579622.599149, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681579622.599149, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.012032897378587136 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.279423865518211, 5.8273061730346285, 0.07369389597668974, 0.6433352668743311, 0.4941629318773443, 0.03245930162887885, 0.04178107085035298, 7.8601369825223e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014185524763309916, 3.8624516507992804e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0218756569820438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.144831230534799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010876215109753838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09477094107102783 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.496941442975351, "coverage": 0.9997129724635689, "baseline_score": 96.003469009107, "spot_peer_score": -7.962875370881143, "peer_archived_score": 5.496941442975351, "baseline_archived_score": 96.003469009107, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.962875370881143 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681579622.620761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681579622.620761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 134, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 354, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Law enforcement officials in New York are preparing for the possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted in the coming weeks and appear in a Manhattan courtroom in an investigation examining hush money paid to women who alleged sexual encounters with him. This development may lead to civil unrest in the United States, particularly among Trump's supporters who view this as a politically motivated attack on the former president.\n\nIn the past, the United States has experienced incidents of civil unrest and large-scale rioting, such as the 1992 Los Angeles riots and the mass civil unrest in response to the killing of George Floyd in 2020. It is uncertain whether the potential indictment and court appearance of former President Trump could trigger a similar scale of civil unrest." }, { "id": 15537, "title": "Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?", "short_title": "New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?", "url_title": "New Nuclear-Armed State by 2030?", "slug": "new-nuclear-armed-state-by-2030", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-17T04:12:21.569036Z", "published_at": "2023-03-20T22:38:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T00:06:04.550527Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-20T22:38:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-20T22:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15537, "title": "Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-03-17T04:12:21.569036Z", "open_time": "2023-03-20T22:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-22T22:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-22T22:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/) have played a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons. However, concerns persist about the potential for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, either secretly or openly, which could destabilize regional and global security.\n\nThe emergence of a new nuclear-armed state could have significant implications for international security, potentially triggering arms races or geopolitical realignments. It is therefore important to assess the likelihood of a new country successfully developing and testing a nuclear weapon by 2030, taking into account both announced and unannounced tests.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, credible evidence becomes available that a country not currently possessing nuclear weapons has successfully developed and tested a nuclear weapon. The current nuclear-armed states are the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.\n\nThis evidence can come from one or more of the following sources:\n\n- An official announcement or acknowledgment by the government of the country in question that it has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.\n- Confirmation from a recognized international organization (e.g., International Atomic Energy Agency, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization) or a major intelligence agency (e.g., CIA, MI6, FSB) that the country in question has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.\n- Detection and verification of a nuclear test by a global monitoring network, such as the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), with widespread international consensus on the identity of the country responsible for the test", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15537, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758326753.969025, "end_time": 1759636525.207509, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758326753.969025, "end_time": 1759636525.207509, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.551382707190818 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08303507941585661, 0.806208236854164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20314358457038237, 0.027134041465974392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10277262157203126, 0.0, 0.052446473270009945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5127619511096474, 1.0723369687459934, 0.0, 0.7189347116110996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6891601682275528, 0.0743529554125065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2281245982037388, 0.0, 0.2893506753269389, 0.0, 0.7190946113970754, 1.6683042993393298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031256855951900246, 0.0, 0.7527020898962719, 0.1139394255878376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2070847323242868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0591057465619562, 0.26540318263127977, 0.0, 0.5541459864739142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045070614143927205, 0.0, 0.6454430936411023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43776641345902195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04689051663320829 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287892.898462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287892.898462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6153591573399526, 0.38464084266004744 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 171, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/) have played a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons. However, concerns persist about the potential for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, either secretly or openly, which could destabilize regional and global security.\n\nThe emergence of a new nuclear-armed state could have significant implications for international security, potentially triggering arms races or geopolitical realignments. It is therefore important to assess the likelihood of a new country successfully developing and testing a nuclear weapon by 2030, taking into account both announced and unannounced tests." }, { "id": 15536, "title": "Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?", "short_title": "6-Month AI Weather Forecasting?", "url_title": "6-Month AI Weather Forecasting?", "slug": "6-month-ai-weather-forecasting", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-17T03:56:04.458322Z", "published_at": "2023-03-22T08:53:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.485540Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-22T08:53:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": 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"id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T12:34:57.664732Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15536, "title": "Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?", "created_at": "2023-03-17T03:56:04.458322Z", "open_time": "2023-03-22T08:53:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-23T19:08:29.691000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-23T19:08:29.691000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning have led to significant improvements in many fields, [including weather forecasting](https://source.colostate.edu/ai-and-machine-learning-are-improving-weather-forecasts-but-they-wont-replace-human-experts/). Traditional weather forecasting models rely on complex simulations and data from numerous sources, such as satellites, weather stations, and ocean buoys. However, these models typically have [limited accuracy beyond a week or two](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction), making long-term predictions challenging; weather forecasts beyond 10 days are only right [half the time](https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/#:~:text=A%20seven%2Dday%20forecast%20can,right%20about%20half%20the%20time.). As climate change continues to disrupt weather patterns, the need for more accurate and longer-term forecasts has become increasingly important for planning purposes and mitigating the adverse effects of extreme weather events.\n\nIn recent years, AI techniques, such as deep learning, have shown [promising results](https://eos.org/research-spotlights/the-ai-forecaster-machine-learning-takes-on-weather-prediction) in enhancing short-term weather predictions. Given this potential, it is of great interest to determine whether AI can be utilized to significantly extend the time horizon for accurate weather forecasts. A breakthrough in long-term forecasting could transform industries like agriculture, renewable energy, and disaster management, helping society adapt to climate change more effectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be considered resolved as **Yes** if, by December 31, 2029, a peer-reviewed study or an official announcement from a recognized meteorological organization confirms the development of an AI model that:\n\n1. Predicts local weather patterns (e.g., temperature, precipitation) with a lead time of at least 6 months.\n2. Achieves accuracy levels on those six-month forecasts which surpass the [2022 state-of-the-art for seven-day forecasts](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml), defined as:\n - for precipitation, a \"[threat score](https://www.e-education.psu.edu/meteo3/node/2285#:~:text=Threat%20scores%20indicate%20that%20the%20Weather%20Prediction%20Center%27s,less%20than%20half%20the%20area%20correct%2C%20on%20average.)\" for 1-inch precipitation of at least [0.18](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/images/hpcvrf/wpcd4710yr.gif), and;\n - for temperature, a [Mean Absolute Error](https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/77#:~:text=Mean%20Absolute%20Error,-Perhaps%20the%20simplest&text=So%2C%20if%20you%20forecast%20a,%3D%20%7C%2D3%C2%BAF%7C%20%3D%203%C2%BAF.) of no worse than [4 degrees Fahrenheit](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/images/hpcvrf/d7minyr.gif) for the minimum temperature and [4.7 degrees Fahrenheit](https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/images/hpcvrf/d7maxyr.gif) for the maximum temperature.\n3. Is tested on real-world data across diverse climate zones.\n\nIf the AI model is a component of a larger AI system, the question resolves **Yes** as long as the above criteria are met", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15536, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757814886.132327, "end_time": 1760564227.053304, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.009 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757814886.132327, "end_time": 1760564227.053304, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.009 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.991, 0.009 ], "means": [ 0.023184249728654984 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.722365825736482, 6.72550446883946, 0.29955189393868664, 0.853745198193463, 0.6263670907597118, 0.22399687136452168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15850384332089046, 0.0, 0.012890385051929602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034774264927130684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2361250042703291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017120581355777056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03714452074368754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3833381644077597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006787773285088868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287146.899621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287146.899621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988852159765431, 0.0011147840234569063 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 255, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning have led to significant improvements in many fields, [including weather forecasting](https://source.colostate.edu/ai-and-machine-learning-are-improving-weather-forecasts-but-they-wont-replace-human-experts/). Traditional weather forecasting models rely on complex simulations and data from numerous sources, such as satellites, weather stations, and ocean buoys. However, these models typically have [limited accuracy beyond a week or two](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_weather_prediction), making long-term predictions challenging; weather forecasts beyond 10 days are only right [half the time](https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/#:~:text=A%20seven%2Dday%20forecast%20can,right%20about%20half%20the%20time.). As climate change continues to disrupt weather patterns, the need for more accurate and longer-term forecasts has become increasingly important for planning purposes and mitigating the adverse effects of extreme weather events.\n\nIn recent years, AI techniques, such as deep learning, have shown [promising results](https://eos.org/research-spotlights/the-ai-forecaster-machine-learning-takes-on-weather-prediction) in enhancing short-term weather predictions. Given this potential, it is of great interest to determine whether AI can be utilized to significantly extend the time horizon for accurate weather forecasts. A breakthrough in long-term forecasting could transform industries like agriculture, renewable energy, and disaster management, helping society adapt to climate change more effectively." }, { "id": 15535, "title": "Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?", "short_title": "Adani Top 10 Richest People by 2026?", "url_title": "Adani Top 10 Richest People by 2026?", "slug": "adani-top-10-richest-people-by-2026", "author_id": 133221, "author_username": "Dataprasad", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-17T03:46:22.221928Z", "published_at": "2023-03-29T09:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.918151Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-29T09:50:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-30T18:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T18:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T18:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-03T12:46:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-29T09:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15535, "title": "Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-03-17T03:46:22.221928Z", "open_time": "2023-03-29T09:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-31T09:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-31T09:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T18:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-03T12:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-03T12:47:24.421747Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-30T18:29:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-30T18:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Gautam Shantilal Adani is an Indian billionaire industrialist who is the chairman and founder of Adani Group, a multinational conglomerate involved in port development and operations in India. In September 2022, he was ranked second on the [Bloomberg Billionaire Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-06/adani-s-rise-to-world-s-third-richest-hinges-on-lofty-valuations#xj4y7vzkg).\n\nHindenburg, a research and investment firm, released a [report accusing Adani of fraud](https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani/) on Jan 45th, 2023, leading to a substantial decline in share prices across the Adani empire. Currently, he's [24th on the Forbes list of billionaires](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#3e3efd573d78). \n\nThere has been no probe on the Adani Group, as of now. Although the opposition leaders are [demanding it.](https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/parliament-budget-session-resumes-mallikarjun-kharge-rajya-sabha-lok-sabha-jpc-adani-hindenburg-row-central-agencies-misuse/3006831/)\n\nThe future of the Adani empire and Gautam Adani's personal wealth thus remain highly uncertain.\n\n\n***Will Gautam Adani be listed in the top 10 of the Forbes' annual 'World's Billionaires List' before 2026? ***\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if Gautam Adani is listed in the top 10 of the [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/?sh=11113f472254) billionaire lists for the years 2023, 2024, or 2025, the results of which are summarised [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires). \n\nIf Gautam Adani is not listed in the top 10 for either of these years, the question resolves negatively. If Forbes stops publishing their 'The World's Billionaires' list, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15535, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743301676.392849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2298193574 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743301676.392849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2298193574 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.20678670236577432 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 1.7016716450637086, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.2908027917542575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 1.976995987272353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 0.2751197978780844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31833353559308614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-01T16:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-01T16:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-30T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 14 March 2023, [OpenAI](https://openai.com/) announced their latest model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) family, GPT-4. In the [product announcement post for GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4), OpenAI wrote:\n\n> GPT-4 generally lacks knowledge of events that have occurred after the vast majority of its data cuts off (September 2021), and does not learn from its experience.\n\nThis introduces major limitations into many of the potential applications for GPT-4.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI public info describes GPT-4 as having training data through a date no more than one year in the past of the current version of GPT-4.\n\n[fine-print]\nFor example, if on April 15 2023, the linked page describes training data as recent as June 30 2022, this resolves as YES, but if the page describes training data as recent as March 31 2022 (<1 year before the first release of GPT-4, but >1 year before the updated version with this new data), this does not resolve as **Yes**, and will resolve as **No** by default on the resolve date.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15528, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688109716.209469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688109716.209469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023083824928754305 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.602199760624302, 7.840931572833287, 0.6635015204566976, 0.7619583005885269, 0.1196661889761741, 0.7555506375397543, 0.49044226624810816, 0.05438279331800796, 0.15389153061546032, 0.03856395089718544, 0.6528092031667595, 0.0, 0.0003354626279025118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026900382233713938, 0.05868412703184981, 0.0005076154234050614, 0.03926307350812272, 0.003942665013892356, 0.06650291385157042, 0.0, 0.01206526874919091, 0.0, 0.05408288673471135, 0.026602280719803945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035325657047716695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.007620644183175067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03231461620016842 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.937440121004014, "coverage": 0.998434570171101, "baseline_score": 78.98539280145702, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 5.937440121004014, "baseline_archived_score": 78.98539280145702, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688110941.249602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688110941.249602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993684743849872, 0.0006315256150128152 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 229, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 14 March 2023, [OpenAI](https://openai.com/) announced their latest model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) family, GPT-4. In the [product announcement post for GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4), OpenAI wrote:\n\n> GPT-4 generally lacks knowledge of events that have occurred after the vast majority of its data cuts off (September 2021), and does not learn from its experience.\n\nThis introduces major limitations into many of the potential applications for GPT-4." }, { "id": 15495, "title": "Will the US eliminate or delay the critical mineral and battery component requirement for electric vehicle tax credit eligibility before January 1, 2027?", "short_title": "US Removes Source Requirements for EV Credit?", "url_title": "US Removes Source Requirements for EV Credit?", "slug": "us-removes-source-requirements-for-ev-credit", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-15T19:29:48.938921Z", "published_at": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:55:43.326049Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"Climate Tipping Points Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.766250Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T07:35:21.494279Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 1756, "type": "tournament", "name": "Climate Tipping Points", "slug": "climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/climate_1.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2023-01-27T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-03-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Inflation Reduction Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text) (IRA) was signed into law on August 16, 2022, and introduced new funding and policies to incentivize clean energy, including electric vehicles (EVs). One significant EV program in the IRA was the [extension of tax credits for new EVs](https://pluginamerica.org/why-go-plug-in/state-federal-incentives/inflation-reduction-act-ira-ev-incentives-explained/) along with changes to the eligibility requirements for this tax credit.\n\nThe total available tax credit for a new EV is $7,500, which is split into two parts. A credit of $3,750 is available for vehicles that have some percentage (by value) of their battery components manufactured or assembled in North America, and another $3,750 is available for vehicles where some percentage (by value) of the critical minerals were extracted or processed in the US, or in a country with which the US has a free trade agreement, or were produced from recycling in North America. Both of these requirements start at 50% by value for vehicles placed in service in 2024, increasing annually to 80 percent of critical minerals for vehicles placed in service in 2027 and later, and to 100 percent for manufacturing and assembly for vehicles placed in service in 2029 and later.\n\nAdditionally, the IRA excludes vehicles from eligibility where any amount of critical minerals were sourced from or manufacturing and assembly was performed by a \"foreign entity of concern\". The IRA defines a foreign entity of concern as a \"covered nation\" as defined in section 40207(a)(5) of the [Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text) (IIJA). The IIJA defines a \"covered nation\" as specified in [section 2533c of title 10](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2018-title10/html/USCODE-2018-title10-subtitleA-partIV-chap148-subchapV-sec2533c.htm) of the US Code. That section lists the following four covered nations:\n\n* the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea\n* the People's Republic of China\n* the Russian Federation\n* the Islamic Republic of Iran\n\nThe stringency of these requirements has [led to concerns](https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/08/02/1056606/ev-tax-credits-battery-supply/) that many EVs will not be able to qualify for the tax credits, and automakers [have expressed uncertainty](https://www.eenews.net/articles/uncertainty-abounds-as-ev-tax-credit-guidance-looms/) about how the Treasury will craft rules to interpret and enforce the legislation. The Treasury has released some [preliminary information](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1179) as well as a [white paper](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/30DWhite-Paper.pdf) describing the intent of its forthcoming proposed rules.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the critical mineral and battery component requirements for electric vehicle (EV) federal tax credit eligibility are eliminated or delayed until after December 31, 2026. To be considered eliminated the federal incentive for clean vehicles under U.S. Code § 30D must no longer depend on meeting the critical minerals requirement, battery components requirement, or foreign entity of concern restriction introduced in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The clean vehicle credit must remain at $7,500 or more without being delayed, while the mentioned restrictions are eliminated without being replaced by any related requirements. If the tax credit is eliminated, delayed, or decreased below a total available amount of $7,500, or if other significant requirements or limitations such as per-manufacturer limits are added then this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nA delay in implementation such that the EV tax credits take effect as scheduled but the sourcing requirements described are delayed until after December 31, 2026 will qualify for the question to resolve as **Yes**. Whether the sourcing requirements take effect before January 1, 2027 is irrelevant to this question, the requirements taking effect and then being eliminated or delayed at any point prior to January 1, 2027 would be sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the requirements in section 13401(e) listed below, setting limitations on EV tax credit eligibility, are all no longer law or are all delayed until after December 31, 2026:\n * The requirement that some percentage of critical minerals in an electric vehicle battery be extracted or processed in the US or a US free trade agreement partner, or recycled in North America.\n * The requirement that some percentage of electric vehicle battery components be manufactured or assembled in North America.\n * The exclusion of critical mineral sourcing and battery component extraction, processing, recycling, or assembly from foreign entities of concern. Note that some of the countries listed on the covered nation list may still be excluded from trading with the US via other legislation, but this question is asking whether the explicit foreign entity of concern requirements in [US code § 30D(d)(7)(A) and § 30D(d)(7)(B)](https://irc.bloombergtax.com/public/uscode/doc/irc/section_30d) are eliminated and not replaced with other restrictions on materials sourced from a specific list of countries.\n* The described requirements must not be replaced by similar or relaxed requirements. There must be no requirement that any minimum percentage of critical minerals or battery components in an EV battery be sourced from a specific country or region to be eligible for the EV tax credit and there must be no exclusion of minerals and components extracted, processed, recycled, or assembled by foreign entities of concern.\n* If the requirements are eliminated or delayed as described this question will resolve as **Yes** so long as 30 days elapse without them being replaced, or January 1, 2027 is reached, whichever comes first. Replacement of the requirements after 30 days will be immaterial to the question. The resolution date will be the date the requirements were eliminated or delayed, not the end of the 30 day period.", "post_id": 15495, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757724932.496418, "end_time": 1758839834.993318, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757724932.496418, "end_time": 1758839834.993318, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.231965118814322 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7175412353262227, 1.6311716713048656, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.3484801054844811, 0.4512058906735414, 0.29801254725369025, 0.30413601865739065, 0.36122387397406175, 0.9610143553375351, 0.25629411550036657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287048.685662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287048.685662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9415401770493378, 0.05845982295066219 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Inflation Reduction Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text) (IRA) was signed into law on August 16, 2022, and introduced new funding and policies to incentivize clean energy, including electric vehicles (EVs). One significant EV program in the IRA was the [extension of tax credits for new EVs](https://pluginamerica.org/why-go-plug-in/state-federal-incentives/inflation-reduction-act-ira-ev-incentives-explained/) along with changes to the eligibility requirements for this tax credit.\n\nThe total available tax credit for a new EV is $7,500, which is split into two parts. A credit of $3,750 is available for vehicles that have some percentage (by value) of their battery components manufactured or assembled in North America, and another $3,750 is available for vehicles where some percentage (by value) of the critical minerals were extracted or processed in the US, or in a country with which the US has a free trade agreement, or were produced from recycling in North America. Both of these requirements start at 50% by value for vehicles placed in service in 2024, increasing annually to 80 percent of critical minerals for vehicles placed in service in 2027 and later, and to 100 percent for manufacturing and assembly for vehicles placed in service in 2029 and later.\n\nAdditionally, the IRA excludes vehicles from eligibility where any amount of critical minerals were sourced from or manufacturing and assembly was performed by a \"foreign entity of concern\". The IRA defines a foreign entity of concern as a \"covered nation\" as defined in section 40207(a)(5) of the [Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text) (IIJA). The IIJA defines a \"covered nation\" as specified in [section 2533c of title 10](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2018-title10/html/USCODE-2018-title10-subtitleA-partIV-chap148-subchapV-sec2533c.htm) of the US Code. That section lists the following four covered nations:\n\n* the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea\n* the People's Republic of China\n* the Russian Federation\n* the Islamic Republic of Iran\n\nThe stringency of these requirements has [led to concerns](https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/08/02/1056606/ev-tax-credits-battery-supply/) that many EVs will not be able to qualify for the tax credits, and automakers [have expressed uncertainty](https://www.eenews.net/articles/uncertainty-abounds-as-ev-tax-credit-guidance-looms/) about how the Treasury will craft rules to interpret and enforce the legislation. The Treasury has released some [preliminary information](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1179) as well as a [white paper](https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/30DWhite-Paper.pdf) describing the intent of its forthcoming proposed rules." }, { "id": 15493, "title": "Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?", "short_title": "Clean Air Act Waivers Broadened Before 2027?", "url_title": "Clean Air Act Waivers Broadened Before 2027?", "slug": "clean-air-act-waivers-broadened-before-2027", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-15T19:29:48.852090Z", "published_at": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:36:28.588553Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, 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"forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15493, "title": "Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2023-03-15T19:29:48.852090Z", "open_time": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-18T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-18T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Clean Air Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States)ss) (CAA) is the broad name given to the United States' air quality laws, which are administered by the [Environmental Protection Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Environmental_Protection_Agency) (EPA). Originally passed in 1963, the CAA has been [amended numerous times](https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/evolution-clean-air-act). The CAA prevents states from imposing their own emissions regulations for new vehicles, with an exception that states [which had imposed vehicle emissions regulations prior to March 30, 1966](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30853) may apply for a waiver to enforce their own emissions regulations contingent on the regulations being more stringent than the national regulations, along with several other conditions.\n\nAs the only state meeting the date requirement, California is uniquely positioned to adopts its own emissions regulations. Additionally, the [CAA permits other states](https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/vehicle-emissions-california-waivers-and-authorizations#:~:text=subpart%20B%2C%20%C2%A7%201074.105.-,State%20Adoption%20of%20California%20Standards,-The%20Clean%20Air) to adopt, without federal review, emissions regulations imposed by California which have been granted a waiver by the EPA.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a law is enacted in the United States that allows states other than California to set their own vehicle emissions standards that are more stringent than federal standards. The ability to adopt California's standards does not qualify. This does not include a repeal of the Clean Air Act (CAA) so that Federal emissions regulations are revoked in favor of state emissions regulations. The law must allow states to adopt emissions regulations that are more stringent than the CAA in a broadly similar manner to the ability of California to adopt its own standards, but enabling the states to set their own standards instead of adopting California's. The law need not take effect before January 1, 2027, so long as it is signed by the President before that date.", "fine_print": "* A judicial ruling that expands the ability of other states to be granted such waivers does not qualify and if this occurred without a law being enacted as described the question will resolve as **No**.\n* A law or judicial ruling that allows states to regulate emissions as they choose without requiring that they meet or exceed the federal emissions regulations does not qualify. For the question to resolve as **Yes**, a law must be enacted such that only states which set emissions standards that are more stringent than federal standards are granted permission to set their own emissions standards.", "post_id": 15493, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757471777.793075, "end_time": 1760739714.986127, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.033 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757471777.793075, "end_time": 1760739714.986127, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.033 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.967, 0.033 ], "means": [ 0.12902345720646016 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5184797798380378, 1.763185273980395, 1.3085862743650316, 1.6271193410540665, 0.6213613819802013, 1.7319371895850377, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.15651466837253736, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08491933480810765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287774.664592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287774.664592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9766776534088343, 0.02332234659116577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 137, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Clean Air Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States)ss) (CAA) is the broad name given to the United States' air quality laws, which are administered by the [Environmental Protection Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Environmental_Protection_Agency) (EPA). Originally passed in 1963, the CAA has been [amended numerous times](https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/evolution-clean-air-act). The CAA prevents states from imposing their own emissions regulations for new vehicles, with an exception that states [which had imposed vehicle emissions regulations prior to March 30, 1966](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30853) may apply for a waiver to enforce their own emissions regulations contingent on the regulations being more stringent than the national regulations, along with several other conditions.\n\nAs the only state meeting the date requirement, California is uniquely positioned to adopts its own emissions regulations. Additionally, the [CAA permits other states](https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/vehicle-emissions-california-waivers-and-authorizations#:~:text=subpart%20B%2C%20%C2%A7%201074.105.-,State%20Adoption%20of%20California%20Standards,-The%20Clean%20Air) to adopt, without federal review, emissions regulations imposed by California which have been granted a waiver by the EPA." }, { "id": 15492, "title": "Will California's waiver exception under the Clean Air Act be repealed before January 1, 2027?", "short_title": "California's Emissions Waiver Repealed 2027?", "url_title": "California's Emissions Waiver Repealed 2027?", "slug": "californias-emissions-waiver-repealed-2027", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-15T19:29:48.812944Z", "published_at": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:36:33.138019Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, 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& Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2947, "type": "question_series", "name": "Climate Tipping Points Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.766250Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T07:35:21.494279Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2947, "type": "question_series", "name": "Climate Tipping Points Round 2", "slug": null, 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"score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15492, "title": "Will California's waiver exception under the Clean Air Act be repealed before January 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2023-03-15T19:29:48.812944Z", "open_time": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-18T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-18T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Clean Air Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States)ss) (CAA) is the broad name given to the United States' air quality laws, which are administered by the [Environmental Protection Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Environmental_Protection_Agency) (EPA). Originally passed in 1963, the CAA has been [amended numerous times](https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/evolution-clean-air-act). The CAA prevents states from imposing their own emissions regulations for new vehicles, with an exception that states [which had imposed vehicle emissions regulations prior to March 30, 1966](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30853) may apply for a waiver to enforce their own emissions regulations contingent on the regulations being more stringent than the national regulations, along with several other conditions.\n\nAs the only state meeting the date requirement, California is uniquely positioned to adopts its own emissions regulations. Additionally, the [CAA permits other states](https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/vehicle-emissions-california-waivers-and-authorizations#:~:text=subpart%20B%2C%20%C2%A7%201074.105.-,State%20Adoption%20of%20California%20Standards,-The%20Clean%20Air) to adopt, without federal review, emissions regulations imposed by California which have been granted a waiver by the EPA.\n\nDespite [recent legal challenges](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/epa-restores-california-s-clean-air-act-waiver-allowing-state-to-set-its-own-motor), California has been granted numerous waivers from the EPA, allowing it to have the most stringent emissions regulations in the country. In 2022, California [proposed a new rule](https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-moves-accelerate-100-new-zero-emission-vehicle-sales-2035) which would mandate that 100% of new light vehicle sales in the state be zero emission vehicles (ZEVs, which includes all-electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) by 2035. The proposed rules are still [pending a waiver](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2364839-california-adopts-zev-mandate) from the EPA.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, an enacted law or judicial ruling eliminates California's ability to receive waivers to set its own emissions standards for motor vehicles. The law or ruling need not invalidate all existing waivers granted to California, so long as it removes the ability of California to be granted new waivers. An enacted law need not take effect before January 1, 2027, so long as it is signed by the President before that date.\n\nA judicial ruling qualifies as eliminating California's ability to receive waivers if it is either issued by the Supreme Court of the United States or if it is issued by a lower court such that it removes California's ability to receive waivers for 180 consecutive days without being overturned. The 180 day period need not end before January 1, 2027. If a lower court has produced such a ruling and the 180 day period has not ended before January 1, 2027, Metaculus will wait until the 180 day period has completed or the ruling has been overturned to resolve.", "fine_print": "* The waiver exemption in question is found in the Clean Air Act (CAA) Section 209(b)(1) (42 U.S.C. 7543(b)(1)). This question will resolve according to the determination of Metaculus that the criteria specified have been met, which may include but is not limited to the striking of the CAA Section 209(b)(1).\n* An agency denying such a waiver or refusing to grant waivers for any period of time does not qualify for the question to resolve as **Yes** so long as California can legally be granted such a waiver.", "post_id": 15492, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757471782.254852, "end_time": 1759964894.357755, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.415 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757471782.254852, "end_time": 1759964894.357755, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.415 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.585, 0.415 ], "means": [ 0.4687023644031878 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.832312654139075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7224529644607373, 1.4576633655404212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29960928926580743, 1.3392623878595646, 0.4921720506514511, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 2.1561185098213445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288976.28858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288976.28858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8141816215780433, 0.1858183784219567 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Clean Air Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clean_Air_Act_(United_States)ss) (CAA) is the broad name given to the United States' air quality laws, which are administered by the [Environmental Protection Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Environmental_Protection_Agency) (EPA). Originally passed in 1963, the CAA has been [amended numerous times](https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/evolution-clean-air-act). The CAA prevents states from imposing their own emissions regulations for new vehicles, with an exception that states [which had imposed vehicle emissions regulations prior to March 30, 1966](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL30853) may apply for a waiver to enforce their own emissions regulations contingent on the regulations being more stringent than the national regulations, along with several other conditions.\n\nAs the only state meeting the date requirement, California is uniquely positioned to adopts its own emissions regulations. Additionally, the [CAA permits other states](https://www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/vehicle-emissions-california-waivers-and-authorizations#:~:text=subpart%20B%2C%20%C2%A7%201074.105.-,State%20Adoption%20of%20California%20Standards,-The%20Clean%20Air) to adopt, without federal review, emissions regulations imposed by California which have been granted a waiver by the EPA.\n\nDespite [recent legal challenges](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/epa-restores-california-s-clean-air-act-waiver-allowing-state-to-set-its-own-motor), California has been granted numerous waivers from the EPA, allowing it to have the most stringent emissions regulations in the country. In 2022, California [proposed a new rule](https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/california-moves-accelerate-100-new-zero-emission-vehicle-sales-2035) which would mandate that 100% of new light vehicle sales in the state be zero emission vehicles (ZEVs, which includes all-electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles) by 2035. The proposed rules are still [pending a waiver](https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2364839-california-adopts-zev-mandate) from the EPA." }, { "id": 15490, "title": "Will a new federal \"Cash for Clunkers\" program be passed into law before 2027?", "short_title": "Federal \"Cash for Clunkers\" Before 2027?", "url_title": "Federal \"Cash for Clunkers\" Before 2027?", "slug": "federal-cash-for-clunkers-before-2027", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-15T19:29:48.737052Z", "published_at": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:59:34.017438Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2947, "type": "question_series", "name": "Climate Tipping Points Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.766250Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T07:35:21.494279Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2947, "type": "question_series", "name": "Climate Tipping Points Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.766250Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T07:35:21.494279Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 1756, "type": "tournament", "name": "Climate Tipping Points", "slug": "climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/climate_1.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2023-01-27T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-03-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T09:41:03.269667Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15490, "title": "Will a new federal \"Cash for Clunkers\" program be passed into law before 2027?", "created_at": "2023-03-15T19:29:48.737052Z", "open_time": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-18T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-18T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[From Kelley Blue Book](https://www.kbb.com/car-news/cash-for-clunkers/):\n\n>Cash for Clunkers is shorthand for the Car Allowance Rebate System. This government incentive program passed in response to the 2008 recession to spur auto sales. The plan gave participants up to $4,500 for their old running vehicles (cash for their clunker). The money would be used to purchase a more fuel-efficient new or late-model used vehicle. The program ran from July 1 to August 24, 2009, distributing some $3 billion.\n>\n>A new version of the program was proposed last year by Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY). It targets older internal combustion vehicles in favor of zero-emission electric cars. It would earmark $392 billion towards replacing 63 million cars and trucks, or about 25-percent of the current U.S. fleet, with EVs. However, this proposal is not part of the infrastructure bill currently under consideration.\n\nAny old cars purchased by dealers under the [Car Allowance Rebate System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_Allowance_Rebate_System) were required to be scrapped and have their engines disabled, precluding the potential for resale.\n\nSchumer has described his proposal for a new version of this plan in [a 2021 interview with the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/17/22334634/schumer-electric-vehicle-swap-discount-infrastructure-interview) and a [2019 op-ed in the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/24/opinion/chuck-schumer-electric-car.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the US enacts a law that earmarks at least $100 billion for incentives to remove internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles from the road and replace them with zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) **OR** the US enacts a law that targets the replacement of more than 50 million ICE vehicles with ZEVs. To resolve this question as **Yes** the law must provide a positive financial incentive to owners of ICE vehicles who transfer their vehicle to another party for disposal and who also buy a ZEV. A positive financial incentive includes a direct cash payment, tax credit, or tax deduction. Negative financial incentives, such as fines or tax penalties for failing to dispose of an ICE vehicle, do not count.\n\nZero-emission vehicles will be battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles.\n\nMetaculus will determine whether a law meets the criteria above according to the text of the law supplemented with official statements accompanying the law released by the government and policymakers", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758023281.513944, "end_time": 1758666620.519817, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758023281.513944, "end_time": 1758666620.519817, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.12902431119178392 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.8249082519936364, 0.5333308664113305, 2.0316527375986047, 1.040387528095117, 0.2748574657272404, 1.3620691610546385, 0.8436139002404373, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.020706884286877357, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289205.235789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289205.235789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9491514887473924, 0.05084851125260758 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 129, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[From Kelley Blue Book](https://www.kbb.com/car-news/cash-for-clunkers/):\n\n>Cash for Clunkers is shorthand for the Car Allowance Rebate System. This government incentive program passed in response to the 2008 recession to spur auto sales. The plan gave participants up to $4,500 for their old running vehicles (cash for their clunker). The money would be used to purchase a more fuel-efficient new or late-model used vehicle. The program ran from July 1 to August 24, 2009, distributing some $3 billion.\n>\n>A new version of the program was proposed last year by Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY). It targets older internal combustion vehicles in favor of zero-emission electric cars. It would earmark $392 billion towards replacing 63 million cars and trucks, or about 25-percent of the current U.S. fleet, with EVs. However, this proposal is not part of the infrastructure bill currently under consideration.\n\nAny old cars purchased by dealers under the [Car Allowance Rebate System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Car_Allowance_Rebate_System) were required to be scrapped and have their engines disabled, precluding the potential for resale.\n\nSchumer has described his proposal for a new version of this plan in [a 2021 interview with the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/17/22334634/schumer-electric-vehicle-swap-discount-infrastructure-interview) and a [2019 op-ed in the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/24/opinion/chuck-schumer-electric-car.html)." }, { "id": 15489, "title": "Will the United States pass a law setting deadlines on NEPA review before January 1, 2027?", "short_title": "US Passes Law Setting NEPA Schedules?", "url_title": "US Passes Law Setting NEPA Schedules?", "slug": "us-passes-law-setting-nepa-schedules", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-15T19:29:48.695886Z", "published_at": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:58:57.088879Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2947, "type": "question_series", "name": "Climate Tipping Points Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.766250Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T07:35:21.494279Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2947, "type": "question_series", "name": "Climate Tipping Points Round 2", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:18.766250Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T07:35:21.494279Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 1756, "type": "tournament", "name": "Climate Tipping Points", "slug": "climate", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/climate_1.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2023-01-27T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-03-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T09:41:03.269667Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15489, "title": "Will the United States pass a law setting deadlines on NEPA review before January 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2023-03-15T19:29:48.695886Z", "open_time": "2023-03-16T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-18T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-18T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [National Environmental Policy Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Environmental_Policy_Act) (NEPA) was enacted in 1970 and established a process for the review of the environmental impact of projects within the federal purview. It also established the [Council on Environmental Quality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_on_Environmental_Quality) (CEQ), an office of the executive branch tasked with overseeing NEPA implementation. The law requires that Federal agencies prepare environmental assessments (EA) and (if required) environmental impact statements (EIS) for projects to assess their environmental impact.\n\nWhile the law emphasizes environmental protection, it has [been criticized](https://progress.institute/environmental-review/) for slowing the transition to renewable energy by causing delays in projects related to clean energy technology. Section 4.3 of the National Association of Environmental Professionals [2021 Annual NEPA Report](https://naep.memberclicks.net/assets/annual-report/NEPA_Annual_Report_2021.pdf) says the following about the length of time for EISs completed in 2021 (NOI refers to notice of intent to prepare an EIS and NOA refers to the notice of availability of the EIS):\n\n>. . . final EISs prepared by all agencies combined had an average preparation time (from the Federal Register NOI to the EPA NOA for the final EIS) of 1,678 ± 1,589 days (4.6 ± 4.4 years[)].\n\nThe length of EIS review may be a significant factor in future US mining capacity for critical minerals. According to a [report published by SNL Metals & Mining](https://nma.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/SNL_Permitting_Delay_Report-Online.pdf)\n\n>. . . it takes on average seven to 10 years to secure the permits needed to commence operations in the U.S. To put that into perspective, in Canada and Australia, countries with similarly stringent environmental regulations, the average permitting period is two years.\n\nIn September of 2020 the Trump administration's CEQ [updated the regulations regarding NEPA implementation](https://www.insideenergyandenvironment.com/2020/07/ceq-finalizes-nepa-rule-updating-regulations/). This update included setting a [one year time limit](https://scoutenv.com/2021/12/08/nepaeaclockstart/) on EAs and a two year time limit on EISs, though these time limits could be extended by a written order from the lead agency performing the NEPA review (the relevant section of the [2020 final rule](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2020/07/f76/ceq-reg-2020-07-16-final-rule.pdf) is § 1501.10). In 2021 the Biden administration [extended the deadline](https://www.vnf.com/biden-administration-walks-back-key-trump-era-nepa-regulation-changes) for agencies to update their procedures in accordance with the 2020 rule until September 2023. In 2022 the CEQ also issued a [final rule](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/04/20/2022-08288/national-environmental-policy-act-implementing-regulations-revisions) reversing some of the 2020 changes in what it referred to as \"[Phase 1](https://www.environmentallawandpolicy.com/2022/06/biden-administration-releases-phase-1-of-nepa-revisions/)\" revisions to the 2020 rule, with a \"Phase 2\" to follow. The \"Phase 1\" revisions did not remove the timeline requirement imposed in the 2020 rule.\n\nIn 2022 several House Republicans [introduced](https://naturalresources.house.gov/newsroom/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=411591) a [bill](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8981) that would impose timelines for NEPA review of 18 months for an EA and 24 months for an EIS, which could not be extended without agreement from the project applicant.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the United States has passed a law which sets a deadline on the length of NEPA review such that an environmental assessment (EA) not exceed 18 months and an environmental impact statement (EIS) not exceed 24 months. A more stringent timeline qualifies so long as neither the EA or EIS timelines exceed those specified here.\n\nA law qualifies for the question to resolve as **Yes** even if it allows extensions to the deadline, so long as the law stipulates that the project applicant must agree to the extensions.", "fine_print": "* There need not be an overall deadline for this question to resolve as **Yes**, so long as the individual deadlines for EA and EIS are both stipulated as specified.\n* The start date of the time limits may be left up to agency interpretation and final ruling, and are not relevant for the purposes of this question.\n* A law that is passed so that EAs and/or EISs are abolished would be sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**, as long as Metaculus assesses that the law does not also replace EAs and/or EISs with a similar review process without sufficient deadlines.\n* Replacement of EAs and EISs with a similar review process may still qualify to resolve the question as **Yes** so long as the new or modified review process implements deadlines which in the judgment of Metaculus impose cumulative time limit(s) less than or equal to the overall time limit of 18 months for a process or set of processes analogous to an Environmental Assessment, and 24 months for a process or set of processes analogous to an Environmental Impact Statement. Any required process or set of processes analogous to a combination of an Environmental Assessment and an Environmental Impact Statement must be subject to a time limit of no greater than 42 months.", "post_id": 15489, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757881770.258836, "end_time": 1759065943.500818, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757881770.258836, "end_time": 1759065943.500818, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.5251760708797955 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43131426209606216, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.7118165837590469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.7273210712397409, 0.5584580948134545, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.3764295304079803, 0.49184465768954627, 1.8097773786794509, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9232442791817004 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290011.26705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290011.26705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6039886942455928, 0.3960113057544072 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [National Environmental Policy Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Environmental_Policy_Act) (NEPA) was enacted in 1970 and established a process for the review of the environmental impact of projects within the federal purview. It also established the [Council on Environmental Quality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_on_Environmental_Quality) (CEQ), an office of the executive branch tasked with overseeing NEPA implementation. The law requires that Federal agencies prepare environmental assessments (EA) and (if required) environmental impact statements (EIS) for projects to assess their environmental impact.\n\nWhile the law emphasizes environmental protection, it has [been criticized](https://progress.institute/environmental-review/) for slowing the transition to renewable energy by causing delays in projects related to clean energy technology. Section 4.3 of the National Association of Environmental Professionals [2021 Annual NEPA Report](https://naep.memberclicks.net/assets/annual-report/NEPA_Annual_Report_2021.pdf) says the following about the length of time for EISs completed in 2021 (NOI refers to notice of intent to prepare an EIS and NOA refers to the notice of availability of the EIS):\n\n>. . . final EISs prepared by all agencies combined had an average preparation time (from the Federal Register NOI to the EPA NOA for the final EIS) of 1,678 ± 1,589 days (4.6 ± 4.4 years[)].\n\nThe length of EIS review may be a significant factor in future US mining capacity for critical minerals. According to a [report published by SNL Metals & Mining](https://nma.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/SNL_Permitting_Delay_Report-Online.pdf)\n\n>. . . it takes on average seven to 10 years to secure the permits needed to commence operations in the U.S. To put that into perspective, in Canada and Australia, countries with similarly stringent environmental regulations, the average permitting period is two years.\n\nIn September of 2020 the Trump administration's CEQ [updated the regulations regarding NEPA implementation](https://www.insideenergyandenvironment.com/2020/07/ceq-finalizes-nepa-rule-updating-regulations/). This update included setting a [one year time limit](https://scoutenv.com/2021/12/08/nepaeaclockstart/) on EAs and a two year time limit on EISs, though these time limits could be extended by a written order from the lead agency performing the NEPA review (the relevant section of the [2020 final rule](https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2020/07/f76/ceq-reg-2020-07-16-final-rule.pdf) is § 1501.10). In 2021 the Biden administration [extended the deadline](https://www.vnf.com/biden-administration-walks-back-key-trump-era-nepa-regulation-changes) for agencies to update their procedures in accordance with the 2020 rule until September 2023. In 2022 the CEQ also issued a [final rule](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/04/20/2022-08288/national-environmental-policy-act-implementing-regulations-revisions) reversing some of the 2020 changes in what it referred to as \"[Phase 1](https://www.environmentallawandpolicy.com/2022/06/biden-administration-releases-phase-1-of-nepa-revisions/)\" revisions to the 2020 rule, with a \"Phase 2\" to follow. The \"Phase 1\" revisions did not remove the timeline requirement imposed in the 2020 rule.\n\nIn 2022 several House Republicans [introduced](https://naturalresources.house.gov/newsroom/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=411591) a [bill](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8981) that would impose timelines for NEPA review of 18 months for an EA and 24 months for an EIS, which could not be extended without agreement from the project applicant." }, { "id": 15470, "title": "Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Xi Jingping speaks with Volodymyr Zelensky?", "url_title": "Xi Jingping speaks with Volodymyr Zelensky?", "slug": "xi-jingping-speaks-with-volodymyr-zelensky", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-15T16:41:38.553358Z", "published_at": "2023-03-17T05:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.291444Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-17T05:14:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:14:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-17T05:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15470, "title": "Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-15T16:41:38.553358Z", "open_time": "2023-03-17T05:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-17T19:03:32.479065Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-17T19:03:32.479065Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-01T15:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Chinese President Xi Jinping is [planning to visit Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-xi-plans-russia-visit-soon-next-week-sources-2023-03-13/) in March for a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. This visit comes as China has been [offering to broker peace in Ukraine](https://news.yahoo.com/china-presents-12-point-peace-022555790.html), an effort that has been met with skepticism in the West given China’s diplomatic support for Russia. \n\nAfter his visit to Moscow, Xi Jinping [may hold talks with Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky](https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-to-speak-with-zelensky-meet-next-week-with-putin-f34be6be). If he does, it would be the first time the Chinese President has spoken with Zelensky since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. \n\nPresident Zelensky had previously [indicated intent to meet with President Xi](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64762219), saying:\n\n> I really want to believe that China will not supply weapons to Russia.\n\nLeaders in the West reacted positively to the possibility of talks between the Chinese and Ukrainian leaders. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan [said](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/white-house-hails-possibility-xi-093000074.html):\n\n>We have been encouraging President Xi to reach out to President Zelensky because we believe that the PRC and President Xi himself should hear directly the Ukrainian perspective and not just the Russian perspective on this.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if credible media reports or official statements from the governments of China or Ukraine indicate President Xi and President Zelensky have spoken before April 1, 2023", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15470, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680312717.091587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680312717.091587, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.007123577602648883 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.707679521890535, 6.58542200041976, 0.17934322477051334, 0.028594323526767156, 0.12857340189023872, 0.3521073450636101, 0.0, 0.011118755130384602, 0.021136214239246387, 0.0, 0.006981201433035711, 0.002957253875629504, 0.0, 0.005013454196939874, 0.0, 0.008079667438195534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004531733890566454, 0.0, 0.027556145394857935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002640647313302665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021029426149431376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008845328803183903, 0.00013894719645662337, 0.0005715246084560312, 0.0, 0.010555929970589165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001909346503134918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024960518686219994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00047610181482114517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00039125916236303825, 0.0, 9.182461665635955e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 31.87682999787217, "coverage": 0.9892921603885897, "baseline_score": 37.59564162529419, "spot_peer_score": 163.18623874148142, "peer_archived_score": 31.87682999787217, "baseline_archived_score": 37.59564162529419, "spot_peer_archived_score": 163.18623874148142 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680312717.114732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680312717.114732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 327, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Chinese President Xi Jinping is [planning to visit Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-xi-plans-russia-visit-soon-next-week-sources-2023-03-13/) in March for a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. This visit comes as China has been [offering to broker peace in Ukraine](https://news.yahoo.com/china-presents-12-point-peace-022555790.html), an effort that has been met with skepticism in the West given China’s diplomatic support for Russia. \n\nAfter his visit to Moscow, Xi Jinping [may hold talks with Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky](https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-to-speak-with-zelensky-meet-next-week-with-putin-f34be6be). If he does, it would be the first time the Chinese President has spoken with Zelensky since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. \n\nPresident Zelensky had previously [indicated intent to meet with President Xi](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64762219), saying:\n\n> I really want to believe that China will not supply weapons to Russia.\n\nLeaders in the West reacted positively to the possibility of talks between the Chinese and Ukrainian leaders. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan [said](https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/white-house-hails-possibility-xi-093000074.html):\n\n>We have been encouraging President Xi to reach out to President Zelensky because we believe that the PRC and President Xi himself should hear directly the Ukrainian perspective and not just the Russian perspective on this." }, { "id": 15467, "title": "Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?", "short_title": "GPT-4 to exhibit a capability jump (Leetcode)", "url_title": "GPT-4 to exhibit a capability jump (Leetcode)", "slug": "gpt-4-to-exhibit-a-capability-jump-leetcode", "author_id": 118245, "author_username": "peter_m", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-15T12:17:25.761288Z", "published_at": "2023-03-16T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.017852Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-16T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15467, "title": "Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-03-15T12:17:25.761288Z", "open_time": "2023-03-16T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-18T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-18T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T08:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T08:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 14, 2023, [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced and released to the public via the ChatGPT webapp.\n\nWhile it performed in the top 80 or even 90 percentile (compared to humans) on many tests like the bar exam, LSAT, SAT, most APs, and more, it struggled with medium and hard Leetcode questions.\n\nThe [technical report](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf) accompanying GPT-4's release mentions the potential for \"capability jumps\". The authors:\n\n> encourage other developers of language models to […] be cognizant of, and plan for, capability jumps “in the wild”: Methods like fine-tuning and chain-of-thought prompting could lead to capability jumps in the same base model. This should be accounted for explicitly in internal safety testing procedures and evaluations. And a precautionary principle should be applied: above a safety critical threshold, assurance of sufficient safety is required.\n\nThis question aims to evaluate the likelihood of GPT-4 experiencing a capability jump in solving Leetcode questions before 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before the end of 2023, there are credible reports demonstrating that GPT-4 can correctly answer:\n\n 1. At least 8 out of 10 randomly chosen medium Leetcode questions, or\n 2. At least 4 out of 10 randomly chosen hard Leetcode questions\n\nThe solution must be achieved on the first attempt, and the prompt cannot provide any answers to the chosen questions. If the credibility of a report is in question, the Metaculus team will independently verify the method.\n\nThe question also resolves as **Yes** if the Metaculus team can achieve either of the above criteria after reviewing the comments and spending 10 minutes searching for a suitable prompting method.\n\nThis question resolves **Ambiguously** if any of the following occur:\n\n- GPT-4 becomes inaccessible to Metaculus staff before resolving positively or negatively, and access is still unavailable as of the resolve date.\n- GPT-4's knowledge cutoff shifts significantly, casting doubt on the training set's integrity due to potential contamination with relevant Leetcode question answers", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15467, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704004533.484374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704004533.484374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10564943298164439 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.715781487752946, 0.0, 0.5879582834791942, 0.0, 0.8298722552313236, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2879098978182344, 0.1902336590916781, 0.27871581253948946, 0.0, 1.1883026564820125, 0.32919929430005174, 0.0, 0.5440276795277754, 0.6604589055537916, 1.3435852644309652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14824649236357032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18040899107047384, 0.0, 0.10732781524304257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02904148917975771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024887815310673432, 0.2335530355470736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07867790498236563, 0.0, 0.25440093702144784, 0.09113692876557192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009856869823379553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03365636844874199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014847804209650994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005954525306226569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.033979806450154, "coverage": 0.9991786084213142, "baseline_score": 37.82001371238352, "spot_peer_score": 36.63900868482871, "peer_archived_score": 7.033979806450154, "baseline_archived_score": 37.82001371238352, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.63900868482871 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008228.403377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008228.403377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9872662318540504, 0.012733768145949611 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 144, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 14, 2023, [GPT-4](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) was announced and released to the public via the ChatGPT webapp.\n\nWhile it performed in the top 80 or even 90 percentile (compared to humans) on many tests like the bar exam, LSAT, SAT, most APs, and more, it struggled with medium and hard Leetcode questions.\n\nThe [technical report](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf) accompanying GPT-4's release mentions the potential for \"capability jumps\". The authors:\n\n> encourage other developers of language models to […] be cognizant of, and plan for, capability jumps “in the wild”: Methods like fine-tuning and chain-of-thought prompting could lead to capability jumps in the same base model. This should be accounted for explicitly in internal safety testing procedures and evaluations. And a precautionary principle should be applied: above a safety critical threshold, assurance of sufficient safety is required.\n\nThis question aims to evaluate the likelihood of GPT-4 experiencing a capability jump in solving Leetcode questions before 2024." }, { "id": 15466, "title": "Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?", "short_title": "GPT-4 Interaction Limitations May 2023?", "url_title": "GPT-4 Interaction Limitations May 2023?", "slug": "gpt-4-interaction-limitations-may-2023", "author_id": 119604, "author_username": "Lawrence", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-15T10:29:07.874313Z", "published_at": "2023-03-15T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.709180Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-15T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z", 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"id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T04:28:08.227330Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T04:28:08.227330Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15466, "title": "Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-15T10:29:07.874313Z", "open_time": "2023-03-15T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-16T08:40:20.813791Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-16T08:40:20.813791Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T16:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-01T16:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 14, 2023, GPT-4 was [announced](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and released to the public via the ChatGPT webapp.\n\nEarlier the same year, Microsoft [integrated GPT-4](https://blogs.bing.com/search/march_2023/Confirmed-the-new-Bing-runs-on-OpenAI%E2%80%99s-GPT-4) into Bing, using it to back a chatbot. After [reports](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jtoPawEhLNXNxvgTT/bing-chat-is-blatantly-aggressively-misaligned) of Bing Chat showing distinctly dark-triadic traits during some of its conversations emerged, Microsoft limited interactions with the bot to [five questions per session](https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/17/23604906/microsoft-bing-ai-chat-limits-conversations).\n\nHere we ask whether something similar will happen with the GPT-4-backed version of ChatGPT.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if restrictions on the number of rounds of dialog with the GPT-4-backed version of ChatGPT, or restrictions content of user inputs to the bot, are put in place before the end of May 2023 as a measure to deal with undesirable behavior from the model. It also resolves as **Yes** if the bot is taken down entirely for any period of time, for the same reason.", "fine_print": "Whether restrictions/removal were measures to deal with undesirable model behavior will be decided by Metaculus staff.", "post_id": 15466, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685558816.980981, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685558816.980981, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.016674797915365375 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.297185739261188, 6.99566528957016, 1.8623450344591224, 0.1542454053955247, 0.4201960430201366, 0.1452022817601628, 0.04658261767648145, 0.012630607718125297, 0.12369889452297467, 0.754175513729963, 0.07182182725068126, 0.0, 0.0007442701451381057, 0.004622951861781569, 0.1087226509795535, 0.0028831904530317756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03188136642829896, 0.0019434189214753161, 0.025432070005812674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1387821380231844, 0.0, 0.0004940915054150324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021721036730799502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002539280627490721, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.778159332122234, "coverage": 0.9999783314697677, "baseline_score": 87.72009206912367, "spot_peer_score": 8.940439441228555, "peer_archived_score": 4.778159332122234, "baseline_archived_score": 87.72009206912367, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.940439441228555 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685558816.996733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685558816.996733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 250, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 14, 2023, GPT-4 was [announced](https://openai.com/research/gpt-4) and released to the public via the ChatGPT webapp.\n\nEarlier the same year, Microsoft [integrated GPT-4](https://blogs.bing.com/search/march_2023/Confirmed-the-new-Bing-runs-on-OpenAI%E2%80%99s-GPT-4) into Bing, using it to back a chatbot. After [reports](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jtoPawEhLNXNxvgTT/bing-chat-is-blatantly-aggressively-misaligned) of Bing Chat showing distinctly dark-triadic traits during some of its conversations emerged, Microsoft limited interactions with the bot to [five questions per session](https://www.theverge.com/2023/2/17/23604906/microsoft-bing-ai-chat-limits-conversations).\n\nHere we ask whether something similar will happen with the GPT-4-backed version of ChatGPT." } ] }
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