Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3380
{ "count": 5982, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3400", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3360", "results": [ { "id": 15422, "title": "Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?", "short_title": "KBW drops 33% from Jan 3 to Apr 30?", "url_title": "KBW drops 33% from Jan 3 to Apr 30?", "slug": "kbw-drops-33-from-jan-3-to-apr-30", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [ { "id": 132519, "username": "Anastasia" } ], "created_at": "2023-03-11T10:51:45.070929Z", "published_at": "2023-03-11T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.822154Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-11T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-28T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-28T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-28T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-28T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-11T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15422, "title": "Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-11T10:51:45.070929Z", "open_time": "2023-03-11T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-13T03:06:48.874233Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-13T03:06:48.874233Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-28T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-28T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-28T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-28T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-28T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [KBW Nasdaq Bank Index](https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/index/overview/bkx) is a benchmark index that tracks the performance of leading banks and financial institutions in the United States. It includes 24 stocks of large U.S. national money center banks, regional banks, and thrift institutions that are publicly traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Some of the banks included in the index are JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. The index is widely used as a benchmark for the banking sector and is considered a key indicator of the health and performance of the U.S. banking industry. At the beginning of the year, the index stood at $101.46 reaching a 2023-high of $115.10 in early February. However, since the beginning of March, the price has crashed from [$109.33 on March 1 to $92.22 on March 10](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BKX:INDEXNASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiuv8msh9L9AhXUJzQIHQYeCBsQ3ecFegQILBAY&window=YTD) on the basis of sector-wide concern over financial contagion from recent bank collapses: \n\nIn March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank was [shut down by US banking regulators](https://www.ft.com/content/6943e05b-6b0d-4f67-9a35-9664fb456504)\n\n> Silicon Valley Bank was shuttered by US regulators on Friday after customers raced to withdraw $42bn — a quarter of its total deposits — in one day and a failed effort to raise new capital called into question the future of the tech-focused lender. With about $209bn in assets, SVB has become the second-largest bank failure in US history, after the 2008 collapse of Washington Mutual, and marks a swift fall from grace for a lender that was valued at more than $44bn less than 18 months ago.\n\nThis comes a few days after crypto bank Silvergate [shut down](https://www.ft.com/content/cf88319f-641a-48c6-9925-0d9e6a201466): \n\n> Silvergate, the San Diego-based regional lender that transformed itself into a go-to bank for the crypto industry, plans to wind down operations in the face of turmoil in digital currency markets. Citing “recent industry and regulatory developments”, Silvergate on Wednesday announced that a “voluntary liquidation of the bank is the best path forward”. The disclosure sent its stock down more than 30 per cent in after-hours trading to $3 a share. In the past few years Silvergate had developed into the largest cryptocurrency bank in the US, attracting as much as $14bn in customer deposits and reaching a stock price of more than $200 in late 2021.\n\nThis raises the fears of more [widespread contagion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/el-erian-says-us-banking-system-can-weather-svb-contagion-risk) risk in the US banking sector, though a 2008-like collapse is seen as unlikely. As the [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-failure-financial-industry/) reports:\n\n> With $209 billion in assets, the [SVB] was just one-eighteenth the size of JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest. Still, Wall Street was rattled by SVB’s abrupt end, the second-biggest bank failure in U.S. history, after Washington Mutual in 2008.\n\n> Share prices of the industry’s five largest players — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs — fell heavily in SVB’s final days. BofA was down nearly 12 percent in the past five trading sessions.\n\nThe index [closed at $101.47](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/BKX/historical-prices) on January 3, 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if the KWB Nasdaq Bank Index records at least a 33% price drop to below $68 before May 1, 2023.\n\nThis question resolve as **No** if the KWB Nasdaq Bank Index does not record a price drop to below $68 for any day before May 1, 2023. \n\nResolution will be based on [official data](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/BKX/historical-prices). Specifically, the question resolves as **Yes** if the ‘Low’ for any given day is below $68 before May 1, 2023", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15422, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682638534.90073, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682638534.90073, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0526008099515655 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.33486871232686, 3.254906441152654, 0.3092656910559154, 0.2387745119184577, 0.5984158902969641, 1.7525057461016056, 0.07982935021231018, 0.0, 0.8655887224229246, 0.9307200270794798, 0.08184455377723261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04384841732294667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18113776984784913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6661837143277762, 0.0, 0.029132572966941807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021542612258663517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00515416995245163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038452075194978584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01542797475028349, 0.025137985516365664, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021384087234125715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003750798840222434 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 25.176001989504435, "coverage": 0.9998760918167181, "baseline_score": 26.086233288535194, "spot_peer_score": 82.34847351345199, "peer_archived_score": 25.176001989504435, "baseline_archived_score": 26.086233288535194, "spot_peer_archived_score": 82.34847351345199 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682667423.746058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682667423.746058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9937487150672074, 0.006251284932792554 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 323, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [KBW Nasdaq Bank Index](https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/index/overview/bkx) is a benchmark index that tracks the performance of leading banks and financial institutions in the United States. It includes 24 stocks of large U.S. national money center banks, regional banks, and thrift institutions that are publicly traded on the Nasdaq Stock Market. Some of the banks included in the index are JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. The index is widely used as a benchmark for the banking sector and is considered a key indicator of the health and performance of the U.S. banking industry. At the beginning of the year, the index stood at $101.46 reaching a 2023-high of $115.10 in early February. However, since the beginning of March, the price has crashed from [$109.33 on March 1 to $92.22 on March 10](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BKX:INDEXNASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiuv8msh9L9AhXUJzQIHQYeCBsQ3ecFegQILBAY&window=YTD) on the basis of sector-wide concern over financial contagion from recent bank collapses: \n\nIn March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank was [shut down by US banking regulators](https://www.ft.com/content/6943e05b-6b0d-4f67-9a35-9664fb456504)\n\n> Silicon Valley Bank was shuttered by US regulators on Friday after customers raced to withdraw $42bn — a quarter of its total deposits — in one day and a failed effort to raise new capital called into question the future of the tech-focused lender. With about $209bn in assets, SVB has become the second-largest bank failure in US history, after the 2008 collapse of Washington Mutual, and marks a swift fall from grace for a lender that was valued at more than $44bn less than 18 months ago.\n\nThis comes a few days after crypto bank Silvergate [shut down](https://www.ft.com/content/cf88319f-641a-48c6-9925-0d9e6a201466): \n\n> Silvergate, the San Diego-based regional lender that transformed itself into a go-to bank for the crypto industry, plans to wind down operations in the face of turmoil in digital currency markets. Citing “recent industry and regulatory developments”, Silvergate on Wednesday announced that a “voluntary liquidation of the bank is the best path forward”. The disclosure sent its stock down more than 30 per cent in after-hours trading to $3 a share. In the past few years Silvergate had developed into the largest cryptocurrency bank in the US, attracting as much as $14bn in customer deposits and reaching a stock price of more than $200 in late 2021.\n\nThis raises the fears of more [widespread contagion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/el-erian-says-us-banking-system-can-weather-svb-contagion-risk) risk in the US banking sector, though a 2008-like collapse is seen as unlikely. As the [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2023/03/10/silicon-valley-bank-failure-financial-industry/) reports:\n\n> With $209 billion in assets, the [SVB] was just one-eighteenth the size of JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest. Still, Wall Street was rattled by SVB’s abrupt end, the second-biggest bank failure in U.S. history, after Washington Mutual in 2008.\n\n> Share prices of the industry’s five largest players — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs — fell heavily in SVB’s final days. BofA was down nearly 12 percent in the past five trading sessions.\n\nThe index [closed at $101.47](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/BKX/historical-prices) on January 3, 2023." }, { "id": 15421, "title": "Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold \"under duress\" before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "First Republic Bank collapse before 2024?", "url_title": "First Republic Bank collapse before 2024?", "slug": "first-republic-bank-collapse-before-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2023-03-11T09:48:21.320261Z", "published_at": "2023-03-11T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.845905Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-11T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-11T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 120, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15421, "title": "Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold \"under duress\" before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-03-11T09:48:21.320261Z", "open_time": "2023-03-11T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-12T15:30:13.172903Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-12T15:30:13.172903Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-01T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed, making it the largest failure of a bank [since 2008](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-banks-wrapup-1-2023-03-10/): \n\n> California banking regulators closed the bank, which did business as Silicon Valley Bank, on Friday and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver for later disposition of its assets.\n\nSilicon Valley Bank was one of the most prominent banks in Silicon Valley, having many start-ups and venture capitalists as its [clients](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/10/tech/silicon-valley-bank-tech-panic/index.html). As such, there has been [speculation about the size of the negative impact](https://www.pymnts.com/digital-first-banking/2023/silicon-valley-bank-closure-impacts-hundreds-of-startups-and-vcs/) of the SVB closure on start-ups and venture capitalists. \n\n> The closure of Silicon Valley Bank has impacted startups and venture capital firms. Hundreds of such firms did their banking and kept billions of dollars with the bank, which went under the receivership of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Friday (March 10)\n\n> The bank’s collapse could have other long-lasting effects. One startup said it is concerned about future efforts to raise funds because so many investors banked at Silicon Valley Bank, while another said tech firms might not be able to find another bank that is as willing as Silicon Valley Bank was to work with them when they ran into tough times, the report said.\n\nOne further concern is that of contagion, the worry that the collapse of a single bank spreads financial distress to other banks systemwide. While large-scale contagion fears are at the moment not seen as [very likely](https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1008696/svb-sparks-crash-in-banking-stocks-but-are-contagion-fears-overdone-1008696.html), there is significantly more concern about contagion risks for similar banks operating in Silicon Valley. \n\nOne of the potential banks that faces especially high risks is [First Republic Bank](https://fortune.com/company/first-republic-bank/). As a Kruze Consulting [report](https://kruzeconsulting.com/best-business-banks/) put it: “For the early-stage, high growth companies, First Republic and Silicon Valley Bank, are the biggest players\". As [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/svb-collapse-could-lead-contagion-221110997.html) reports, banks like First Republic are already facing pressure:\n\n> Regional banks are facing pressure from SVB’s blow-up for two main reasons. First, venture capitalists and start-ups that rely on these banks are worried. CNBC reported Friday that one venture capitalist said it was like someone shouted “fire in a crowded theater where there is no fire,” leading many businesses and tech investors to ask for their money back from banks just to be safe.\n\n> There is already some evidence of contagion to regional banks as a result of this fear. Trading in multiple regional banks stocks including PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance Bancorp, and First Republic Bank was halted Friday amid aggressive selling from investors.\n\nFirst Republic has aimed to [calm investors](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/first-republic-western-alliance-calm-contagion-worries-svb-meltdown-2023-03-10/) by claiming that their “liquidity and deposits remained strong” and that it had a “[very well diversified](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-11/first-republic-regional-peers-try-to-boost-confidence-after-svb?srnd=markets-vp#xj4y7vzkg) deposit base”. However, there remains a serious risk of contagion to regional banks like First Republic Bank.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, First Republic Bank or any of its subsidiaries have been placed under FDIC receivership OR First Republic Bank has signed a deal to be purchased by another organization, which has been characterized as a bail out, a rescue, or in response to liquidity trouble by credible sources. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court.\n\nResolution will be determined according to information publicly available on or before February 1, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15421, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682941007.874553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682941007.874553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 123, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.926522710219803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0006341716648463153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00364896785307219, 0.007254578418435562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37168097739808015, 0.0, 0.0051974632364868946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001421795985348414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001427424602181451, 0.0, 0.12435438988875261, 0.009210489614203992, 0.005199936159124132, 0.0011925784360865771, 0.0, 0.0007060648553634997, 0.0, 0.007863381820523289, 0.00532875771770252, 0.0, 0.006082912716664448, 0.0, 0.003994758534254718, 0.0022064672318640875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025413390458112867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.692995889237664, 0.00017670184034227192, 0.0009420700898529783, 0.009953850596998371, 0.21200519662256428, 0.0, 0.0030304811269917893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15397083938880127, 0.0, 0.006685769436416621, 0.00615471695613117, 0.0, 0.027127108623757005, 0.013457663970476179, 0.002264193834389935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02536619189510293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2477892254467714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014915181107320696, 0.015477334284329713, 0.0, 0.008514529804420452, 0.010747329411514139, 0.0, 0.04572322007249377, 0.2169531774163671, 0.011593775430638067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20462420580988386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037617465423081135, 0.0, 0.1732252016806402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06561596517522088, 0.16837888560619646, 0.017962505982107184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3986987149932921, 0.020662517777062978, 0.061796247063434964, 0.1129122380540484, 17.152272382803538 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.032686606762579, "coverage": 0.1707163409001605, "baseline_score": -3.6121287998221043, "spot_peer_score": 33.179356143417415, "peer_archived_score": 6.032686606762579, "baseline_archived_score": -3.6121287998221043, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.179356143417415 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682913085.002618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682913085.002618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11623099040253215, 0.8837690095974678 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 559, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapsed, making it the largest failure of a bank [since 2008](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-banks-wrapup-1-2023-03-10/): \n\n> California banking regulators closed the bank, which did business as Silicon Valley Bank, on Friday and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver for later disposition of its assets.\n\nSilicon Valley Bank was one of the most prominent banks in Silicon Valley, having many start-ups and venture capitalists as its [clients](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/10/tech/silicon-valley-bank-tech-panic/index.html). As such, there has been [speculation about the size of the negative impact](https://www.pymnts.com/digital-first-banking/2023/silicon-valley-bank-closure-impacts-hundreds-of-startups-and-vcs/) of the SVB closure on start-ups and venture capitalists. \n\n> The closure of Silicon Valley Bank has impacted startups and venture capital firms. Hundreds of such firms did their banking and kept billions of dollars with the bank, which went under the receivership of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Friday (March 10)\n\n> The bank’s collapse could have other long-lasting effects. One startup said it is concerned about future efforts to raise funds because so many investors banked at Silicon Valley Bank, while another said tech firms might not be able to find another bank that is as willing as Silicon Valley Bank was to work with them when they ran into tough times, the report said.\n\nOne further concern is that of contagion, the worry that the collapse of a single bank spreads financial distress to other banks systemwide. While large-scale contagion fears are at the moment not seen as [very likely](https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1008696/svb-sparks-crash-in-banking-stocks-but-are-contagion-fears-overdone-1008696.html), there is significantly more concern about contagion risks for similar banks operating in Silicon Valley. \n\nOne of the potential banks that faces especially high risks is [First Republic Bank](https://fortune.com/company/first-republic-bank/). As a Kruze Consulting [report](https://kruzeconsulting.com/best-business-banks/) put it: “For the early-stage, high growth companies, First Republic and Silicon Valley Bank, are the biggest players\". As [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/svb-collapse-could-lead-contagion-221110997.html) reports, banks like First Republic are already facing pressure:\n\n> Regional banks are facing pressure from SVB’s blow-up for two main reasons. First, venture capitalists and start-ups that rely on these banks are worried. CNBC reported Friday that one venture capitalist said it was like someone shouted “fire in a crowded theater where there is no fire,” leading many businesses and tech investors to ask for their money back from banks just to be safe.\n\n> There is already some evidence of contagion to regional banks as a result of this fear. Trading in multiple regional banks stocks including PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance Bancorp, and First Republic Bank was halted Friday amid aggressive selling from investors.\n\nFirst Republic has aimed to [calm investors](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/first-republic-western-alliance-calm-contagion-worries-svb-meltdown-2023-03-10/) by claiming that their “liquidity and deposits remained strong” and that it had a “[very well diversified](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-11/first-republic-regional-peers-try-to-boost-confidence-after-svb?srnd=markets-vp#xj4y7vzkg) deposit base”. However, there remains a serious risk of contagion to regional banks like First Republic Bank." }, { "id": 15420, "title": "Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?", "short_title": "USDC peg restoration before May 2023?", "url_title": "USDC peg restoration before May 2023?", "slug": "usdc-peg-restoration-before-may-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-11T07:34:28.171226Z", "published_at": "2023-03-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.281472Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-13T14:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-13T14:27:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15420, "title": "Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-11T07:34:28.171226Z", "open_time": "2023-03-11T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-11T17:37:49.536500Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-11T17:37:49.536500Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-13T14:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-13T14:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-04-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-13T14:27:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "USD Coin (USDC) is a stablecoin cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value of $1 USD. It is issued by [CENTRE](https://www.centre.io/#:~:text=An%20Independent%2C,largest%20stablecoin%20on%20the%20market.), a joint venture between Coinbase and Circle, and is backed by U.S. dollar-denominated assets held at regulated and audited U.S. financial institutions. USDC is commonly used in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and by traders due to its relative stability compared to other digital assets. \n\nAfter the [failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)](https://www.vox.com/technology/23634433/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-silvergate-first-republic-fdic) and a report that Circle had a [$3.3 billion exposure to SVB](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/binance-tether-say-no-svb-exposure-while-circle-stays-mum), USDC [de-pegged](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/) on March 11, trading at as low as $0.88 USDC/USD, significantly below its 1:1 valuation target. [Coinbase and Binance](https://decrypt.co/123208/coinbase-binance-suspend-usdc-conversions-as-dollar-peg-wobbles) suspended USDC conversions, while Robinhood also reportedly [suspended USDC trading and deposits](https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634455895030505473).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if USDC/USD trades at 0.999 USD or above before May 1, 2023. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if USDC/USD does not trade at 0.999 USD or above before May 1, 2023 or if USDC is delisted from the resolution source.\n\nThe resolution source is [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/). If Coinmarketcap is no longer online, other [resolution sources](https://crypto.com/price/usd-coin) may be used", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15420, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678714699.686225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678714699.686225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9739754838988379 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011325021621769293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.056405454004622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30445314579120214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10666096661288105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024056385017941176, 0.09464378440008571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0531317537512142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3894751181296262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.014340426232757577, 0.04225147949949812, 0.5828344458460977, 0.7354588283401317, 9.046120615207965 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.44455408254701273, "coverage": 0.03982581842204136, "baseline_score": 3.593153665154285, "spot_peer_score": 28.58234371972843, "peer_archived_score": 0.44455408254701273, "baseline_archived_score": 3.593153665154285, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.58234371972843 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678714699.696979, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678714699.696979, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.02600505136462894, 0.9739949486353711 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "USD Coin (USDC) is a stablecoin cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value of $1 USD. It is issued by [CENTRE](https://www.centre.io/#:~:text=An%20Independent%2C,largest%20stablecoin%20on%20the%20market.), a joint venture between Coinbase and Circle, and is backed by U.S. dollar-denominated assets held at regulated and audited U.S. financial institutions. USDC is commonly used in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and by traders due to its relative stability compared to other digital assets. \n\nAfter the [failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)](https://www.vox.com/technology/23634433/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-silvergate-first-republic-fdic) and a report that Circle had a [$3.3 billion exposure to SVB](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/binance-tether-say-no-svb-exposure-while-circle-stays-mum), USDC [de-pegged](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/usd-coin/) on March 11, trading at as low as $0.88 USDC/USD, significantly below its 1:1 valuation target. [Coinbase and Binance](https://decrypt.co/123208/coinbase-binance-suspend-usdc-conversions-as-dollar-peg-wobbles) suspended USDC conversions, while Robinhood also reportedly [suspended USDC trading and deposits](https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1634455895030505473)." }, { "id": 15414, "title": "Will Silicon Valley Bank file for bankruptcy or be sold \"under duress\" before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "SVB Bankruptcy or Sale before 2024?", "url_title": "SVB Bankruptcy or Sale before 2024?", "slug": "svb-bankruptcy-or-sale-before-2024", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2023-03-10T15:45:15.338064Z", "published_at": "2023-03-10T16:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.310676Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-10T16:30:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-10T16:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-10T16:46:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-10T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15414, "title": "Will Silicon Valley Bank file for bankruptcy or be sold \"under duress\" before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-03-10T15:45:15.338064Z", "open_time": "2023-03-10T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-12T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-12T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-10T16:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-10T16:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-10T16:46:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)](https://www.svb.com/) is a financial institution that was founded in 1983 in Santa Clara, California. Initially, the bank focused on providing banking services to the technology and life sciences industries in the Silicon Valley region. Over the years, SVB has grown to become a global financial services company that provides a range of banking and financing solutions to technology, life sciences, healthcare, and venture capital industries. \n\nIn March 2023, news that SVB's parent company had [sold $21 billion of securities from its portfolio](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/10/why-svb-was-hit-by-a-bank-run-and-where-it-could-lead-quicktake/b51d556a-bf55-11ed-9350-7c5fccd598ad_story.html) and would be seeking to [raise new capital](https://www.axios.com/2023/03/09/silicon-valley-bank-launches-new-share-sale) caused some prominent venture capital firms to suggest that their companies withdraw assets and prompted a bank run.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, Silicon Valley Bank or any of its subsidiaries have filed for bankruptcy or a similar filing of insolvency in any jurisdiction OR Silicon Valley Bank has signed a deal to be purchased by another organization, which has been characterized as a bail out, a rescue, or in response to liquidity trouble by credible sources. The question resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. \n\nResolution will be determined according to information publicly available on or before February 1, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15414, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678474559.222621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678474559.222621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9721531219838498 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3938259988704744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7301399913921385 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.664721537973921e-06, "coverage": 2.6097983650507466e-05, "baseline_score": 0.0016894556478332244, "spot_peer_score": 2.062147926702444, "peer_archived_score": 8.664721537973921e-06, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0016894556478332244, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.062147926702444 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678466412.620288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678466412.620288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19792608596501549, 0.8020739140349845 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)](https://www.svb.com/) is a financial institution that was founded in 1983 in Santa Clara, California. Initially, the bank focused on providing banking services to the technology and life sciences industries in the Silicon Valley region. Over the years, SVB has grown to become a global financial services company that provides a range of banking and financing solutions to technology, life sciences, healthcare, and venture capital industries. \n\nIn March 2023, news that SVB's parent company had [sold $21 billion of securities from its portfolio](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/10/why-svb-was-hit-by-a-bank-run-and-where-it-could-lead-quicktake/b51d556a-bf55-11ed-9350-7c5fccd598ad_story.html) and would be seeking to [raise new capital](https://www.axios.com/2023/03/09/silicon-valley-bank-launches-new-share-sale) caused some prominent venture capital firms to suggest that their companies withdraw assets and prompted a bank run." }, { "id": 15412, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine Control of Melitopol at End of 2023?", "url_title": "Ukraine Control of Melitopol at End of 2023?", "slug": "ukraine-control-of-melitopol-at-end-of-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-09T20:20:45.749218Z", "published_at": "2023-03-15T08:37:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.441306Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-15T08:37:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-15T08:37:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 114, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15412, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-03-09T20:20:45.749218Z", "open_time": "2023-03-15T08:37:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-17T08:37:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-17T08:37:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Melitopol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melitopol) is a city in the [Zaporizhzhia Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Oblast) in Ukraine. It has a population of nearly 150,000 and is located in southeastern Ukraine, near the [Sea of Azov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_of_Azov). It was captured by Russia in the first month of the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Oblast).\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\" alt=\"map of cities in Ukraine\" />\n\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\">Lencer</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0\">CC BY-SA 3.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War's map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the city council building in Melitopol ([46°50'50.7\"N 35°22'55.0\"E](https://www.google.com/maps/place/Melitopol+City+Council/@46.847410,35.381946,19z/data=!4m6!3m5!1s0x40c2ae04d76bc5e3:0xc1980e3fa9b2bb4b!8m2!3d46.8473864!4d35.3820222!16s%2Fg%2F1td23yr9)) as **not** under either \"assessed Russian advance\" or \"assessed Russian control\". If the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for assessed territory then Metaculus will make a determination according to information provided by ISW or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nIf at the time of resolution the Melitopol city council building no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will resolve based on control of the area where the building was located on March 9, 2023", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15412, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075844.181684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075844.181684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.014137006687669955 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.73704991035118, 7.652219386244627, 0.06984005733766704, 0.0, 0.30848775885870344, 0.28925477944942235, 0.02414192568958004, 0.3059256193507618, 0.0008101800757223834, 0.049448963402212755, 0.026438105131659378, 0.0, 0.0003102742470409554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03672810022302729, 0.02089697861447277, 0.002953318548499343, 0.0, 0.008166413001163495, 0.01084958787733481, 0.06976390955051379, 0.013290828643061749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06254511290571338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17024888019047604, 0.0, 0.021242776589738725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05106540312090214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003004233653749666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020597879790480454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027544256487790023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013594165629024298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032672543510765713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008881318131485193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037246101996206123 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.43398403317235, "coverage": 0.9975191671858248, "baseline_score": 78.24677086017753, "spot_peer_score": 5.491841102535183, "peer_archived_score": 23.43398403317235, "baseline_archived_score": 78.24677086017753, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.491841102535183 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703835424.97651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703835424.97651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 357, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Melitopol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melitopol) is a city in the [Zaporizhzhia Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Oblast) in Ukraine. It has a population of nearly 150,000 and is located in southeastern Ukraine, near the [Sea of Azov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_of_Azov). It was captured by Russia in the first month of the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaporizhzhia_Oblast).\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\" alt=\"map of cities in Ukraine\" />\n\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\">Lencer</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0\">CC BY-SA 3.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons*" }, { "id": 15410, "title": "Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?", "short_title": "JetBlue Acquisition of Spirit Airlines", "url_title": "JetBlue Acquisition of Spirit Airlines", "slug": "jetblue-acquisition-of-spirit-airlines", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-09T17:32:09.226202Z", "published_at": "2023-04-01T02:09:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:28:49.591843Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-01T02:09:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-01T02:09:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15410, "title": "Will JetBlue announce that it has acquired Spirit Airlines before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-03-09T17:32:09.226202Z", "open_time": "2023-04-01T02:09:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-03T02:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-03T02:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 28, 2022, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines [announced](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158463/000119312522204208/d319514dex991.htm) that their boards of directors had approved a merger between the two companies through which JetBlue would acquire Spirit for $33.50 a share, at an enterprise value of $7.6 billion, and following the merger would eventually operate as a single airline under the JetBlue name and be the 5th largest airline in the United States. The airlines [planned](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/business/jetblue-spirit-merger.html) to complete the transaction in the first half of 2024. On October 19, 2022 Spirit's shareholders [approved](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498710/000149871022000336/a221019stockholderapprov.htm) the deal. \n\nOn March 7, 2023, the US Department of Justice [announced](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-block-jetblue-s-proposed-acquisition-spirit) an antitrust lawsuit to block the acquisition on the grounds that it would harm consumers by eliminating an ultra-low-cost carrier, which would result in, according to the DOJ, \"raising costs for the flying public and harming cost-conscious fliers most acutely.\" JetBlue and Spirit [announced](https://investor.jetblue.com/news/news-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Spirit-Will-Continue-to-Advance-Plan-to-Create-Compelling-National-Low-Fare-Challenger-to-the-Dominant-U.S.-Carriers/default.aspx) that they would \"vigorously defend\" against the DOJ's suit, arguing that the post-merger JetBlue would be a stronger and more competitive airline against the legacy carriers.\n\nAccording to [research](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/done-deal-why-many-large-transactions-fail-to-cross-the-finish-line) by McKinsey, in any given year about 10% of large M&A transactions are cancelled, with larger combinations being more likely to be cancelled. The 2nd most common reason for mergers to be terminated is for regulatory or antitrust concerns. A recent [legal analysis](https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/2022/11/07/doj-sees-mixed-results-in-litigation-focused-antitrust-strategy/?slreturn=20230209091925) finds the DOJ under the Biden Administration to have a more expansive view of antitrust and a willingness to go to trial even when facing difficult cases. This has resulted in a string of defeats but also recent victories such as blocking the acquisition of Simon & Schuster by Penguin Random House.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** based on either of two events happening:\n\n1. A JetBlue press release stating that it has completed its acquisition of Spirit Airlines.\n2. An SEC filing by JetBlue stating that the deal has been completed. \n\nThis question resolves as **No** immediately upon an announcement (either through press release or an SEC filing) by JetBlue stating that the acquisition deal has been terminated. Otherwise if no deal has been completed before January 1, 2026, this resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15410, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758145188.3502, "end_time": 1758878108.755825, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758145188.3502, "end_time": 1758878108.755825, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04507576460233844 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.2257318375542785, 1.6449619161727247, 0.876931883579203, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.9052638420575493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289584.500568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289584.500568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9771306493221088, 0.022869350677891226 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 28, 2022, JetBlue and Spirit Airlines [announced](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1158463/000119312522204208/d319514dex991.htm) that their boards of directors had approved a merger between the two companies through which JetBlue would acquire Spirit for $33.50 a share, at an enterprise value of $7.6 billion, and following the merger would eventually operate as a single airline under the JetBlue name and be the 5th largest airline in the United States. The airlines [planned](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/28/business/jetblue-spirit-merger.html) to complete the transaction in the first half of 2024. On October 19, 2022 Spirit's shareholders [approved](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1498710/000149871022000336/a221019stockholderapprov.htm) the deal. \n\nOn March 7, 2023, the US Department of Justice [announced](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-block-jetblue-s-proposed-acquisition-spirit) an antitrust lawsuit to block the acquisition on the grounds that it would harm consumers by eliminating an ultra-low-cost carrier, which would result in, according to the DOJ, \"raising costs for the flying public and harming cost-conscious fliers most acutely.\" JetBlue and Spirit [announced](https://investor.jetblue.com/news/news-details/2023/JetBlue-and-Spirit-Will-Continue-to-Advance-Plan-to-Create-Compelling-National-Low-Fare-Challenger-to-the-Dominant-U.S.-Carriers/default.aspx) that they would \"vigorously defend\" against the DOJ's suit, arguing that the post-merger JetBlue would be a stronger and more competitive airline against the legacy carriers.\n\nAccording to [research](https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/done-deal-why-many-large-transactions-fail-to-cross-the-finish-line) by McKinsey, in any given year about 10% of large M&A transactions are cancelled, with larger combinations being more likely to be cancelled. The 2nd most common reason for mergers to be terminated is for regulatory or antitrust concerns. A recent [legal analysis](https://www.law.com/nationallawjournal/2022/11/07/doj-sees-mixed-results-in-litigation-focused-antitrust-strategy/?slreturn=20230209091925) finds the DOJ under the Biden Administration to have a more expansive view of antitrust and a willingness to go to trial even when facing difficult cases. This has resulted in a string of defeats but also recent victories such as blocking the acquisition of Simon & Schuster by Penguin Random House." }, { "id": 15407, "title": "Will octopus farms yield 3000 tonnes of octopuses in one year before 2026?", "short_title": "Octopus Farming Launch and Trajectory", "url_title": "Octopus Farming Launch and Trajectory", "slug": "octopus-farming-launch-and-trajectory", "author_id": 112356, "author_username": "Hannah", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-08T15:05:51.865221Z", "published_at": "2023-03-18T17:12:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T12:18:19.078572Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-18T17:12:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-18T17:12:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:42:40.967116Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:42:40.967116Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15407, "title": "Will octopus farms yield 3000 tonnes of octopuses in one year before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-03-08T15:05:51.865221Z", "open_time": "2023-03-18T17:12:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-20T17:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-20T17:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation.*\n\n[Many animal advocates](https://ali.fish/blog/open-letter-cephalopod-farms-could-be-very-harmful-but-we-can-still-stop-them) are working on preventing a new commercial octopus farm (by the Nueva Pescanova group), and octopus farming more generally, from developing. This question is being posted with a view to giving animal advocates more information about the potential scale of this industry, and how much time they have to intervene. It is also interesting and somewhat unique to forecast the trajectory of a new food industry before it has officially begun.\n\nTo date the vast majority of octopus consumed by humans is wild-caught. The FAO has never reported an annual production of octopus via farming greater than 117 tonnes—reported by Japan in 1967, [see downloaded data here](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OOpFn4L71obkad6C-IUUaDLfeMsi3oeR/view?usp=sharing)—compared to a reported [500,000 tonnes of wild-caught octopus in 2021](https://www.fao.org/fishery/en/openasfa/d031864c-c94e-465a-a7e4-6e1278ea7180). Any octopus farming tonnage ever reported by the FAO has come from just five countries (Japan, Peru, Portugal, Spain, and Tunisia) and is listed under ‘Octopuses, nei [not elsewhere included]’ or ‘Octopuses, etc. nei’. It is not clear where these tonnages originate from (i.e., from which farms/organizations), or if the data represents actual octopus farming—many say octopus has never been farmed before. The practical difficulties of octopus farming (outlined below), the lack of species classification, and small numbers make it difficult to understand what the FAO data indicates, or whether it illustrates the feasibility of octopus farming in the future.¹\n\nIn fact, a farm branded as ‘the world’s first octopus farm’ was proposed for development in 2021, in the Canary Islands. The organization behind the proposal, Nueva Pescanova, declared in 2021 that they had successfully [raised five generations of octopuses](https://www.nuevapescanova.com/en/2021/11/08/nueva-pescanova-inaugura-el-pescanova-biomarine-center-el-centro-de-idi-en-acuicultura-referente-en-espana/#:~:text=Currently%20in%20its%20fifth%20generation%20(Lourditas%2C%20the%20first%20octopus%20to%20be%20born%20in%20aquaculture%2C%20grew%20up%20and%20became%20a%20mother%2C%20and%20now%20has%20great%2Dgreat%2Dgrandchildren%20who%20have%20just%20become%20parents%20themselves)%2C) in captivity. In 2019, Nueva Pescanova said that they expected “[to be able to sell aquaculture octopus starting in the year 2023](https://www.nuevapescanova.com/en/2019/07/18/researchers-from-pescanova-achieve-to-close-the-reproduction-cycle-of-octopus-in-aquaculture/).” In 2021 they said “[Nueva Pescanova will market the world’s first octopuses born in aquaculture in summer 2022](https://www.nuevapescanova.com/en/2021/11/08/nueva-pescanova-inaugura-el-pescanova-biomarine-center-el-centro-de-idi-en-acuicultura-referente-en-espana/#:~:text=Nueva%20Pescanova%20will%20market%20the%20world%E2%80%99s%20first%20octopuses%20born%20in%20aquaculture%20in%20summer%202022).” They also say they will be able to produce 3000 tonnes of octopus annually. We have not seen any public announcement of the permit approval by the Spanish government, so it is likely to still be pending.\n\nOther countries are also attempting to produce farmed octopus. [The Case Against Octopus Farming (2019)](https://issues.org/the-case-against-octopus-farming/) reports “The Spanish Institute of Oceanography in Vigo has carried out the majority of published research on octopus farming, but research is also occurring in Portugal and Greece, where the Mediterranean-based company Nireus Aquaculture has funded octopus-farming research. Octopus ranching is being tried in Italy and Australia as well. A farm in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has reportedly successfully farmed another species, Octopus maya, and attempts to farm octopus are underway in other parts of Latin America, including Chile. In China, up to eight different species of octopus are now being experimentally farmed. In Japan, the seafood company Nissui reported hatching octopus eggs in captivity in 2017 and is predicting a fully farmed market-ready octopus by 2020.”\n\nCompassion in World Farming recently reported that they [helped temporarily halt the only octopus farm in the U.S.](https://www.ciwf.com/news/2023/01/only-us-octopus-farm-shut-down-following-compassion-campaign?utm_campaign=fish&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=ciwf) (though to our knowledge it remains possible that they could obtain permits to resume farming), whose false front of tourism and conservation was exposed as [government records showed plans to supply restaurants with octopus](https://www.everyanimalproject.com/2022/10/09/octopus-farming/#:~:text=Despite%20Kanaloa%E2%80%99s%20public%20claims%20that%20it%20isn%E2%80%99t%20interested%20in%20farming%2C%20government%20records%20show%20plans%20for%20supplying%20octopus%20and%20squid%20to%20the%20restaurant%20industry).\n\nOctopus farming has historically posed many practical problems. There is variation in an individual’s requirements across its development—historically the early and paralarval developmental stages have presented rearing difficulties and, subsequently, high mortality rates ([Uriarte et al., 2011](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1749-7345.2011.00524.x); [Spreitzenbarth et al., 2021](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0044848620334396?dgcid=rss_sd_all#bb0210)) Octopus species are carnivorous and can [require three times their body weight in feed](https://issues.org/the-case-against-octopus-farming/#:~:text=Octopuses%20have%20a%20food%20conversion%20rate%20of%20at%20least%203%3A1%2C%20meaning%20that%20the%20weight%20of%20feed%20necessary%20to%20sustain%20them%20is%20about%20three%20times%20the%20weight%20of%20the%20animal) across their lifetime. They are also solitary, making the large stocking densities required for profitability problematic, and potentially leading to aggression and cannibalistic behavior ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/worlds-first-octopus-farm-stirs-ethical-debate-2022-02-23/#:~:text=However%2C%20previous%20efforts%20to%20farm%20octopus%20have%20struggled%20with%20high%20mortality%2C%20while%20attempts%20to%20breed%20wild%2Dcaught%20octopus%20ran%20into%20problems%20with%20aggression%2C%20cannibalism%20and%20self%2Dmutilation) and [Aquatic Life Institute](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e4ff4ae6791c303cbd43f67/t/63d975bacd110720f64ca6f2/1675195842981/Why+Cephalopod+Farming+Must+be+Rejected+Before+it+Starts.pdf)) Therefore, many are concerned that octopus farming poses significant [animal welfare problems](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e4ff4ae6791c303cbd43f67/t/63d975bacd110720f64ca6f2/1675195842981/Why+Cephalopod+Farming+Must+be+Rejected+Before+it+Starts.pdf). The Case Against Octopus Farming states “Many octopus species appear to be largely asocial and show little tolerance of other individuals of the same species. Farming such species that, in addition, are carnivorous will almost inevitably require that individuals be kept isolated in small containers, with no scope for environmental enrichment and very poor overall well-being.”\n\nOctopuses may also be highly intelligent—the [2012 Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness](http://fcmconference.org/img/CambridgeDeclarationOnConsciousness.pdf) stated that octopuses possessed the characteristics required for consciousness and a [review by the London School of Economics](https://www.lse.ac.uk/news/news-assets/pdfs/2021/sentience-in-cephalopod-molluscs-and-decapod-crustaceans-final-report-november-2021.pdf) reported that there is “very strong evidence of sentience in octopods (order Octopoda)” (p. 81). Based on this review, octopuses were ultimately included in the UK’s [Animal Welfare (Sentience) Act 2022](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/22/enacted).\n\n*¹ When I reached out to the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics team about where the data came from they replied “Unfortunately, we have no information about the producing companies in addition to the national level data we receive from the competent authorities of producing countries.”*", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a calendar year in which at least 3000 tonnes of octopuses are produced via aquaculture before January 1, 2026, as reported by the [FAO’s Global Aquaculture Production database](https://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics-query/en/aquaculture/aquaculture_quantity).\n\nIn the question ‘farming’ refers to aquaculture, as opposed to being captured from the wild. Octopus refers only to those species in the order *Octopoda*, and does not include other cephalopods like squids or cuttlefish. To collect resolution data go to [this link](https://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics-query/en/aquaculture/aquaculture_quantity), in the top right panel under ‘Family’, select 'Octopodidae'. Then, select the years 2021 to 2025 (data accessible at time of question posting only reaches 2020) and click ‘show data’ in the bottom right corner. Finally, total the ‘Tonnes - live weight’ figures for each calendar year.", "fine_print": "There can be a significant time lag for the FAO publishing data (at time of writing in March 2023 the most recent data is for 2020). If after January 1, 2028 the data source is not available, Metaculus may use another credible data source or credible media reporting at their discretion or otherwise resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 15407, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758362327.15497, "end_time": 1759017991.417589, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758362327.15497, "end_time": 1759017991.417589, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.08660386512364625 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.7295300834792231, 1.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289464.159579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289464.159579, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.971044994473161, 0.028955005526839057 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation.*\n\n[Many animal advocates](https://ali.fish/blog/open-letter-cephalopod-farms-could-be-very-harmful-but-we-can-still-stop-them) are working on preventing a new commercial octopus farm (by the Nueva Pescanova group), and octopus farming more generally, from developing. This question is being posted with a view to giving animal advocates more information about the potential scale of this industry, and how much time they have to intervene. It is also interesting and somewhat unique to forecast the trajectory of a new food industry before it has officially begun.\n\nTo date the vast majority of octopus consumed by humans is wild-caught. The FAO has never reported an annual production of octopus via farming greater than 117 tonnes—reported by Japan in 1967, [see downloaded data here](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OOpFn4L71obkad6C-IUUaDLfeMsi3oeR/view?usp=sharing)—compared to a reported [500,000 tonnes of wild-caught octopus in 2021](https://www.fao.org/fishery/en/openasfa/d031864c-c94e-465a-a7e4-6e1278ea7180). Any octopus farming tonnage ever reported by the FAO has come from just five countries (Japan, Peru, Portugal, Spain, and Tunisia) and is listed under ‘Octopuses, nei [not elsewhere included]’ or ‘Octopuses, etc. nei’. It is not clear where these tonnages originate from (i.e., from which farms/organizations), or if the data represents actual octopus farming—many say octopus has never been farmed before. The practical difficulties of octopus farming (outlined below), the lack of species classification, and small numbers make it difficult to understand what the FAO data indicates, or whether it illustrates the feasibility of octopus farming in the future.¹\n\nIn fact, a farm branded as ‘the world’s first octopus farm’ was proposed for development in 2021, in the Canary Islands. The organization behind the proposal, Nueva Pescanova, declared in 2021 that they had successfully [raised five generations of octopuses](https://www.nuevapescanova.com/en/2021/11/08/nueva-pescanova-inaugura-el-pescanova-biomarine-center-el-centro-de-idi-en-acuicultura-referente-en-espana/#:~:text=Currently%20in%20its%20fifth%20generation%20(Lourditas%2C%20the%20first%20octopus%20to%20be%20born%20in%20aquaculture%2C%20grew%20up%20and%20became%20a%20mother%2C%20and%20now%20has%20great%2Dgreat%2Dgrandchildren%20who%20have%20just%20become%20parents%20themselves)%2C) in captivity. In 2019, Nueva Pescanova said that they expected “[to be able to sell aquaculture octopus starting in the year 2023](https://www.nuevapescanova.com/en/2019/07/18/researchers-from-pescanova-achieve-to-close-the-reproduction-cycle-of-octopus-in-aquaculture/).” In 2021 they said “[Nueva Pescanova will market the world’s first octopuses born in aquaculture in summer 2022](https://www.nuevapescanova.com/en/2021/11/08/nueva-pescanova-inaugura-el-pescanova-biomarine-center-el-centro-de-idi-en-acuicultura-referente-en-espana/#:~:text=Nueva%20Pescanova%20will%20market%20the%20world%E2%80%99s%20first%20octopuses%20born%20in%20aquaculture%20in%20summer%202022).” They also say they will be able to produce 3000 tonnes of octopus annually. We have not seen any public announcement of the permit approval by the Spanish government, so it is likely to still be pending.\n\nOther countries are also attempting to produce farmed octopus. [The Case Against Octopus Farming (2019)](https://issues.org/the-case-against-octopus-farming/) reports “The Spanish Institute of Oceanography in Vigo has carried out the majority of published research on octopus farming, but research is also occurring in Portugal and Greece, where the Mediterranean-based company Nireus Aquaculture has funded octopus-farming research. Octopus ranching is being tried in Italy and Australia as well. A farm in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico has reportedly successfully farmed another species, Octopus maya, and attempts to farm octopus are underway in other parts of Latin America, including Chile. In China, up to eight different species of octopus are now being experimentally farmed. In Japan, the seafood company Nissui reported hatching octopus eggs in captivity in 2017 and is predicting a fully farmed market-ready octopus by 2020.”\n\nCompassion in World Farming recently reported that they [helped temporarily halt the only octopus farm in the U.S.](https://www.ciwf.com/news/2023/01/only-us-octopus-farm-shut-down-following-compassion-campaign?utm_campaign=fish&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=ciwf) (though to our knowledge it remains possible that they could obtain permits to resume farming), whose false front of tourism and conservation was exposed as [government records showed plans to supply restaurants with octopus](https://www.everyanimalproject.com/2022/10/09/octopus-farming/#:~:text=Despite%20Kanaloa%E2%80%99s%20public%20claims%20that%20it%20isn%E2%80%99t%20interested%20in%20farming%2C%20government%20records%20show%20plans%20for%20supplying%20octopus%20and%20squid%20to%20the%20restaurant%20industry).\n\nOctopus farming has historically posed many practical problems. There is variation in an individual’s requirements across its development—historically the early and paralarval developmental stages have presented rearing difficulties and, subsequently, high mortality rates ([Uriarte et al., 2011](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1749-7345.2011.00524.x); [Spreitzenbarth et al., 2021](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0044848620334396?dgcid=rss_sd_all#bb0210)) Octopus species are carnivorous and can [require three times their body weight in feed](https://issues.org/the-case-against-octopus-farming/#:~:text=Octopuses%20have%20a%20food%20conversion%20rate%20of%20at%20least%203%3A1%2C%20meaning%20that%20the%20weight%20of%20feed%20necessary%20to%20sustain%20them%20is%20about%20three%20times%20the%20weight%20of%20the%20animal) across their lifetime. They are also solitary, making the large stocking densities required for profitability problematic, and potentially leading to aggression and cannibalistic behavior ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/worlds-first-octopus-farm-stirs-ethical-debate-2022-02-23/#:~:text=However%2C%20previous%20efforts%20to%20farm%20octopus%20have%20struggled%20with%20high%20mortality%2C%20while%20attempts%20to%20breed%20wild%2Dcaught%20octopus%20ran%20into%20problems%20with%20aggression%2C%20cannibalism%20and%20self%2Dmutilation) and [Aquatic Life Institute](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e4ff4ae6791c303cbd43f67/t/63d975bacd110720f64ca6f2/1675195842981/Why+Cephalopod+Farming+Must+be+Rejected+Before+it+Starts.pdf)) Therefore, many are concerned that octopus farming poses significant [animal welfare problems](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e4ff4ae6791c303cbd43f67/t/63d975bacd110720f64ca6f2/1675195842981/Why+Cephalopod+Farming+Must+be+Rejected+Before+it+Starts.pdf). The Case Against Octopus Farming states “Many octopus species appear to be largely asocial and show little tolerance of other individuals of the same species. Farming such species that, in addition, are carnivorous will almost inevitably require that individuals be kept isolated in small containers, with no scope for environmental enrichment and very poor overall well-being.”\n\nOctopuses may also be highly intelligent—the [2012 Cambridge Declaration on Consciousness](http://fcmconference.org/img/CambridgeDeclarationOnConsciousness.pdf) stated that octopuses possessed the characteristics required for consciousness and a [review by the London School of Economics](https://www.lse.ac.uk/news/news-assets/pdfs/2021/sentience-in-cephalopod-molluscs-and-decapod-crustaceans-final-report-november-2021.pdf) reported that there is “very strong evidence of sentience in octopods (order Octopoda)” (p. 81). Based on this review, octopuses were ultimately included in the UK’s [Animal Welfare (Sentience) Act 2022](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/22/enacted).\n\n*¹ When I reached out to the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics team about where the data came from they replied “Unfortunately, we have no information about the producing companies in addition to the national level data we receive from the competent authorities of producing countries.”*" }, { "id": 15405, "title": "Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?", "short_title": "Markets Move with March 2023 FOMC Meeting?", "url_title": "Markets Move with March 2023 FOMC Meeting?", "slug": "markets-move-with-march-2023-fomc-meeting", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-08T04:53:14.542090Z", "published_at": "2023-03-10T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.630949Z", 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"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15405, "title": "Will the S&P 500 increase or decrease by more than 2% when the Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 21-22, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-03-08T04:53:14.542090Z", "open_time": "2023-03-10T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-12T04:05:41.412531Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-12T04:05:41.412531Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-22T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-22T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-22T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-22T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-22T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.\n\nThe primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.\n\nThe next FOMC meeting will be [March 21-22](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). \n\nFOMC statements [significantly affect market volatility](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/2013/0913rosa.pdf). For example, early in March 2023, observers expected the FOMC to [raise interest rates by 0.25 points](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2023/03/04/heres-the-schedule-of-the-feds-upcoming-meetings-and-what-to-expect/?sh=71bd26585573). Following Mr. Powell's [March 7 remarks before the US Senate](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20230307a.htm), markets began to price in a [0.5 point increase](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/business/economy/fed-powell-interest-rates.html), with the [S&P 500 falling 1.5%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-06/asia-stocks-set-for-cautious-open-as-us-gains-fade-markets-wrap?leadSource=uverify%20wall)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the S&P 500 Index increases or decreases by more than 2% on either March 21 or March 22, 2023. \n\nThe 2% change may be on either of the days (March 21 or March 22). A 2% cumulative change over the two-day period will not be sufficient for positive resolution.\n\nThis question will resolve on the basis of the following [Yahoo Finance data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/). For each of the two days, the 'Open' and the 'Close' are taken as the relevant inputs to calculate price changes.\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*", "fine_print": "If the FOMC does not meet as scheduled on March 21-22, 2023, then this question will resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 15405, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1679518024.996641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1679518024.996641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.25609461635978453 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.17620951421456, 0.9305576668511304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6609704774759386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5553572109683369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1516622826293349, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.18967896317068483, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0539466781562132, 0.018152807974501476, 0.0, 0.1350166315751149, 0.0, 0.23476588978119836, 0.0, 0.8012357366197638, 0.9284289518907061, 0.4865170966809128, 0.1698461853777333, 0.31791269281136625, 0.12026351477195975, 0.0, 0.027344313508279407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35034195902508225, 0.0, 0.21127762784985343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04583440182682791, 0.1337763669341998, 0.07140076303461346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09329258471159352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08181124203511007, 0.0, 0.053483974712060484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.1810834309440026, "coverage": 0.9950757384035771, "baseline_score": 2.8345637509400317, "spot_peer_score": 6.032186195725679, "peer_archived_score": 0.1810834309440026, "baseline_archived_score": 2.8345637509400317, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.032186195725679 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1679511779.256463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1679511779.256463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9097843237565586, 0.09021567624344136 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 118, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.\n\nThe primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.\n\nThe next FOMC meeting will be [March 21-22](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). \n\nFOMC statements [significantly affect market volatility](https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/2013/0913rosa.pdf). For example, early in March 2023, observers expected the FOMC to [raise interest rates by 0.25 points](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2023/03/04/heres-the-schedule-of-the-feds-upcoming-meetings-and-what-to-expect/?sh=71bd26585573). Following Mr. Powell's [March 7 remarks before the US Senate](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20230307a.htm), markets began to price in a [0.5 point increase](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/business/economy/fed-powell-interest-rates.html), with the [S&P 500 falling 1.5%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-06/asia-stocks-set-for-cautious-open-as-us-gains-fade-markets-wrap?leadSource=uverify%20wall)" }, { "id": 15375, "title": "Will faster-than-light communication be possible before 2300?", "short_title": "Faster-than-light communication by 2300?", "url_title": "Faster-than-light communication by 2300?", "slug": "faster-than-light-communication-by-2300", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-06T06:13:41.989393Z", "published_at": "2023-03-20T23:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T05:14:59.880279Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-20T23:14:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2300-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-20T23:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15375, "title": "Will faster-than-light communication be possible before 2300?", "created_at": "2023-03-06T06:13:41.989393Z", "open_time": "2023-03-20T23:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-22T23:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-22T23:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2300-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2300-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The idea of [faster-than-light communication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superluminal_communication) frequently appears in science fiction and theoretical discussions. The ability to communicate faster than the speed of light would allow for much more effective coordination of deep space missions, improved ping times for the Earth-based internet, and numerous other benefits. Current scientific research suggests that faster-than-light communication is impossible.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2300, at least one instance of communication being made at speeds faster than the [speed of light](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speed_of_light) has been credibly reported. The communication must involve the transmission of at least [one bit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bit) of information. The communication time must be less than it would take the speed of light to travel the same distance. For instance, if it would take the speed of light 10 milliseconds to travel between points A and B, communication being made in 9.99999 (repeating) milliseconds or less would resolve this question as *Yes*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15375, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758604489.539424, "end_time": 1789892039.8, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.016 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758604489.539424, "end_time": 1789892039.8, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.016 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.984, 0.016 ], "means": [ 0.15025870513325068 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.386940819419822, 2.0105958673843514, 0.020064761700770095, 0.1391714993251316, 0.0, 0.15521909484204122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1674875966671556, 0.0, 0.3426424443372215, 0.18527705034115113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47401681106756194, 0.43776641345902195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5541459864739142, 0.027134041465974392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.315061308553531, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24661022371086044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06639265352365246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04637161225326318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0741881837357972 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288604.268044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288604.268044, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.993399745231106, 0.006600254768894062 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 154, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The idea of [faster-than-light communication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superluminal_communication) frequently appears in science fiction and theoretical discussions. The ability to communicate faster than the speed of light would allow for much more effective coordination of deep space missions, improved ping times for the Earth-based internet, and numerous other benefits. Current scientific research suggests that faster-than-light communication is impossible." }, { "id": 15372, "title": "Will Poland’s GDP per capita (in USD) exceed that of the United Kingdom before 2031?", "short_title": "Polish GDP per capita > UK before 2031?", "url_title": "Polish GDP per capita > UK before 2031?", "slug": "polish-gdp-per-capita-uk-before-2031", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-04T14:15:07.615770Z", "published_at": "2023-03-06T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T11:02:40.272569Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-06T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-06-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-06T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15372, "title": "Will Poland’s GDP per capita (in USD) exceed that of the United Kingdom before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-03-04T14:15:07.615770Z", "open_time": "2023-03-06T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-08T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-06-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Poland has emerged as a fast-growing economy that, over the last 25 years, has doubled in size which resulted in it, [“long a marginal European economy, [being] poised to become Europe’s new growth engine”](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/economic%20studies%20temp/our%20insights/how%20poland%20can%20become%20a%20european%20growth%20engine/poland%202025_full_report.ashx). As a [World Bank summary](https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/poland/overview) phrased it:\n\n> Poland’s well-diversified economy has proven to be one of the most resilient economies in the EU, recovering strongly in 2021 after a relatively small contraction in GDP of 2.2 percent in 2020. A sound macroeconomic framework, effective absorption of EU investment funds, a sound financial sector, better access to long-term credit, and access to European labor markets have supported long-term inclusive growth and poverty reduction.\n\nOver the past decade, Polish GDP growth had also remained strong, with only a small contraction in 2020. See below for the data based on the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=PL): \n\n\n| Country Name | Indicator Name | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |\n| ------------ | ----------------- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |\n| Poland | GDP growth (annual %) | 2.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.4 | -2.0 | 6.8 |\n\n\nRecently, a number of politicians and media outlets in the UK and elsewhere have predicted that Poland could by 2030 economically overtake the UK, faced with a number of economic problems and the prospect of a [lost decade](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-shrink-2023-risks-lost-decade-cbi-2022-12-05/). See for a few examples below:\n\n[Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945): \"Britain and the US are poor societies with some very rich people\"\n\n> On present trends, the average Slovenian household will be better off than its British counterpart by 2024, and the average Polish family will move ahead before the end of the decade.\n\n[Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/britains-economic-trajectory-will-soon-see-it-overtaken-by-poland-labour-to-warn-12821152): \"Britain's economic trajectory will soon see it overtaken by Poland, Starmer to warn\"\n\n> Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will use World Bank data to warn that, without a change in leadership, Britain's economy will be overtaken by its eastern European rivals over the coming few decades.\n\n[The Spectator](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-s-sclerotic-state-is-killing-prosperity/): \"Britain’s sclerotic state\"\n\n> It’s important to put into perspective just how bad the last few parliaments have been. If the UK continues with the same level of growth it has seen for the last decade, Poland will be richer than Britain in about 12 years’ time.\n\nAccording to [OECD data for 2021](https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm), Poland has a GDP per capita (in USD) of 37,771 compared to 49,765 for Britain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Poland’s GDP exceeds that of the United Kingdom’s before December 31, 2030. \n\nResolution is based on the [OECD data](https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm). For the relevant comparison, select ‘US dollars/capita’ under ‘Perspectives’ and add ‘GBR’ and ‘POL’ as highlighted countries for convenience. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if Poland’s GDP per capita is at or below the level of the United Kingdom for every year from 2022 to 2030. \n\nIf the OECD does not publish these data, other sources likes [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-worldbank?tab=chart&country=POL~GBR) may be drawn upon", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15372, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758280854.225374, "end_time": 1760592770.484576, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758280854.225374, "end_time": 1760592770.484576, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.13267235879925512 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5716643338964771, 1.3537315296137817, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 1.3337578326041601, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.7178340848142957, 0.21693921071189126, 0.24418289570209825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289129.962873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289129.962873, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9879541805364223, 0.012045819463577741 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Poland has emerged as a fast-growing economy that, over the last 25 years, has doubled in size which resulted in it, [“long a marginal European economy, [being] poised to become Europe’s new growth engine”](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/economic%20studies%20temp/our%20insights/how%20poland%20can%20become%20a%20european%20growth%20engine/poland%202025_full_report.ashx). As a [World Bank summary](https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/poland/overview) phrased it:\n\n> Poland’s well-diversified economy has proven to be one of the most resilient economies in the EU, recovering strongly in 2021 after a relatively small contraction in GDP of 2.2 percent in 2020. A sound macroeconomic framework, effective absorption of EU investment funds, a sound financial sector, better access to long-term credit, and access to European labor markets have supported long-term inclusive growth and poverty reduction.\n\nOver the past decade, Polish GDP growth had also remained strong, with only a small contraction in 2020. See below for the data based on the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=PL): \n\n\n| Country Name | Indicator Name | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |\n| ------------ | ----------------- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- |\n| Poland | GDP growth (annual %) | 2.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 4.4 | -2.0 | 6.8 |\n\n\nRecently, a number of politicians and media outlets in the UK and elsewhere have predicted that Poland could by 2030 economically overtake the UK, faced with a number of economic problems and the prospect of a [lost decade](https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-shrink-2023-risks-lost-decade-cbi-2022-12-05/). See for a few examples below:\n\n[Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945): \"Britain and the US are poor societies with some very rich people\"\n\n> On present trends, the average Slovenian household will be better off than its British counterpart by 2024, and the average Polish family will move ahead before the end of the decade.\n\n[Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/britains-economic-trajectory-will-soon-see-it-overtaken-by-poland-labour-to-warn-12821152): \"Britain's economic trajectory will soon see it overtaken by Poland, Starmer to warn\"\n\n> Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will use World Bank data to warn that, without a change in leadership, Britain's economy will be overtaken by its eastern European rivals over the coming few decades.\n\n[The Spectator](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/britain-s-sclerotic-state-is-killing-prosperity/): \"Britain’s sclerotic state\"\n\n> It’s important to put into perspective just how bad the last few parliaments have been. If the UK continues with the same level of growth it has seen for the last decade, Poland will be richer than Britain in about 12 years’ time.\n\nAccording to [OECD data for 2021](https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gross-domestic-product-gdp.htm), Poland has a GDP per capita (in USD) of 37,771 compared to 49,765 for Britain." }, { "id": 15370, "title": "Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?", "short_title": "US in Bottom 50% for Academic Freedom in 2025", "url_title": "US in Bottom 50% for Academic Freedom in 2025", "slug": "us-in-bottom-50-for-academic-freedom-in-2025", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-04T09:25:52.329871Z", "published_at": "2023-03-06T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T14:16:56.000132Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-06T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-06T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15370, "title": "Will the United States score in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025 (according to the AFI)?", "created_at": "2023-03-04T09:25:52.329871Z", "open_time": "2023-03-06T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-08T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-08T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Academic Freedom Index (AFI)](https://academic-freedom-index.net/) is a comprehensive and widely recognized tool for assessing de facto levels of academic freedom across the world. The AFI evaluates five key indicators of academic freedom, including the freedom to research and teach, freedom of academic exchange and dissemination, institutional autonomy, campus integrity, and freedom of academic and cultural expression. The index currently covers 179 countries and territories, and is considered the most comprehensive dataset available on the subject of academic freedom. The index employs a methodology that includes assessments by 2,197 country experts, standardized questionnaires, and a well-established statistical model, implemented and adapted by the [V-Dem project](https://v-dem.net/). The 2023 report (of the period up to December 2022) places the United States of the America in the Top 40-50% bracket (pg. 2-3) and outlines the following threats to academic freedom:\n\n> China, India, the United States of America and Mexico are among the most populous countries where academic freedom has significantly fallen back over the past decade. These developments have occurred in different political settings and do not all follow the same pattern.\n\n> The United States of America presents a different picture. **After a long period of relatively high academic freedom levels, four out of five indicators visibly declined in 2021** – the year after President Donald Trump, who repeatedly made statements highly critical of science and academia, was voted out of office. Although some federal actions detrimental to academic freedom were taken during his administration, educational matters in the USA are largely regulated by individual states, which have increasingly used their authority to interfere in academic affairs since 2021. At least nine states, all Republican-led, have adopted bills that ban the teaching of concepts related to “critical race theory” in higher education institutions. Several states are also targeting tenure in public universities, adding to the already precarious status of academic employment. Some states now also allow students to record class lectures without the professor’s consent. Furthermore, influential conservative groups are lobbying state legislatures to withdraw funding from scientific fields such as gender, minority studies, and environmental science, and various groups are maintaining public “watchlists” of professors perceived as radical leftists. Despite efforts to polarize and intimidate, AFI data on academics’ freedom of expression indicates that scholars in the USA remain able to publically voice their expertise, even on politically salient issues.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as a **Yes** if the United States of America is ranked in the bottom 50% for academic freedom in 2025, which includes the following brackets: Bottom 10%, Bottom 10-20%, Bottom 20-30%, Bottom 30-40%, and Bottom 40-50%, according to the [Academic Freedom Index.](https://academic-freedom-index.net/)\n\nThis question will resolve as a **No** if the United States of America is ranked in the top 40-50% or higher on the Academic Freedom Index for the year 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as ambiguous if the Academic Freedom Index is no longer published, if the AFI does not report data for the year 2025 (but does report data for 2026 or later), or if the AFI does not report the 2025 data by December 31, 2028.", "fine_print": "It is anticipated that the report for the year 2025 may not come out until 2026 at the earliest. Resolution happens when the report is released, unless the condition of ambiguous resolution are met.\n\nPlease note that as of July 2025, the most recent report was the [Academic Freedom Index Update 2025](https://academic-freedom-index.net/research/Academic_Freedom_Index_Update_2025.pdf), which is for 2024. Based on this experience, the expected report that will encompass 2025 will likely be the \"Academic Freedom Index Update 2026\" or similar.", "post_id": 15370, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758525349.124068, "end_time": 1758642421.161819, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.759 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758525349.124068, "end_time": 1758642421.161819, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.759 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.628398166271264 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0011463879307081098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4955742943419901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.464162412839956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09495037644869721, 0.0, 0.3328652158771481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.627745947949872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004803407173412588, 0.0, 0.24846038378572083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011611224185885751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37905453673715717, 0.0, 0.2118020448654148, 0.0, 0.0, 2.075554632595936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010038775562604, 0.021786738318048823, 0.9033621320999727, 0.28343067185610943, 1.6558492301492198, 0.0, 0.15554853847505667, 0.6418525045395436, 0.07601547047479487, 0.0, 0.3218529276987281, 0.0, 1.704646733362749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4547713060493509, 0.04136365129413757, 0.0, 0.22828764612479718, 0.0, 0.8184750853459167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019395540998817004, 0.006584248247179228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8841796406594272, 0.0, 0.13253099069011334, 0.0, 0.37747527053912144 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287563.785914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287563.785914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6843352639427337, 0.3156647360572663 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 330, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Academic Freedom Index (AFI)](https://academic-freedom-index.net/) is a comprehensive and widely recognized tool for assessing de facto levels of academic freedom across the world. 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These developments have occurred in different political settings and do not all follow the same pattern.\n\n> The United States of America presents a different picture. **After a long period of relatively high academic freedom levels, four out of five indicators visibly declined in 2021** – the year after President Donald Trump, who repeatedly made statements highly critical of science and academia, was voted out of office. Although some federal actions detrimental to academic freedom were taken during his administration, educational matters in the USA are largely regulated by individual states, which have increasingly used their authority to interfere in academic affairs since 2021. At least nine states, all Republican-led, have adopted bills that ban the teaching of concepts related to “critical race theory” in higher education institutions. Several states are also targeting tenure in public universities, adding to the already precarious status of academic employment. Some states now also allow students to record class lectures without the professor’s consent. Furthermore, influential conservative groups are lobbying state legislatures to withdraw funding from scientific fields such as gender, minority studies, and environmental science, and various groups are maintaining public “watchlists” of professors perceived as radical leftists. Despite efforts to polarize and intimidate, AFI data on academics’ freedom of expression indicates that scholars in the USA remain able to publically voice their expertise, even on politically salient issues." }, { "id": 15294, "title": "Will the US conduct a test flight of a military airship capable of transporting a at least a ten-ton payload by 2031?", "short_title": "US Military Airships with 10+ Ton Payload", "url_title": "US Military Airships with 10+ Ton Payload", "slug": "us-military-airships-with-10-ton-payload", "author_id": 129147, "author_username": "txmerritt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-03-02T15:00:08.502315Z", "published_at": "2023-03-16T11:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.750397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-16T11:08:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-16T11:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15294, "title": "Will the US conduct a test flight of a military airship capable of transporting a at least a ten-ton payload by 2031?", "created_at": "2023-03-02T15:00:08.502315Z", "open_time": "2023-03-16T11:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-18T11:08:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-18T11:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "In February 2023, a Chinese surveillance balloon was [shot down]( https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/07/china-spy-balloon-us-national-security/) over US airspace. Subsequently, [three additional flying objects were shot down]( https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/4-flying-objects-shot-north-america-timeline-key/story?id=97068603) The recent incursions of Chinese surveillance balloons into US airspace have raised concerns about the need for advanced surveillance capabilities, which may rekindle the US military's interest in airship technology.\n\nAnticipating the need for novel and creative approaches towards adversaries in future conflicts, [Lt. Col. Jerry Drew argues]( https://www.army.mil/article/261648/experimental_delivery_airships_balloons_push_logistics_to_ground_forces) that modern airships have the potential to be valuable military platforms for long-range surveillance, troop transport, and cargo transportation in a littoral environment. \n\nOne potential role for airships in military operations is as long-range surveillance platforms. Airships are well-suited for this role because they can remain aloft for long periods of time, providing a stable platform for surveillance equipment. Airships can also operate at high altitudes, which can help them avoid detection by ground-based radar. In a littoral environment, airships can monitor shipping lanes, coastal regions, and other areas of interest to military planners.\n\nAnother potential role for airships is troop and cargo transportation in a littoral environment. Airships can transport large amounts of cargo and troops over long distances and operate in areas where traditional transport methods are not feasible. This can make airships valuable for military operations in remote or inaccessible areas. In addition, airships can be used to deploy troops and equipment quickly in response to crises or military conflicts.\n\nPeter Lobner maintains a website with an [exhaustive list of modern airships]( https://lynceans.org/all-posts/modern-airships-part-1/) He claims that despite “the airship industry having developed many designs capable of transporting 10’s to 100’s of tons of cargo thousands of miles, today there is not a single airship that can transport a 3 metric ton (6.614 lb.) payload 300 km (186 mi).” It seems a necessary precursor for military airships to have a payload capacity sufficient to transport advanced surveillance instruments, missiles, drones, troops, or equipment in a littoral environment such as the US might face in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n\n***Will the US conduct a test flight of a military airship capable of transporting a at least a ten-ton payload before 2031?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) from a media outlet or corporate announcement indicates that a test flight was conducted of a US military airship with a payload capacity of at least ten tons before January 1, 2031. \n\nThis question also resolves as **Yes** if a US military airship with a payload capacity of at least ten tons is in service (i.e., if a test flight is not conducted). \n\nAn additional resolution source is the [GAO](https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-222) for the relevant years up to and including 2030.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757628363.19721, "end_time": 1758662463.387715, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757628363.19721, "end_time": 1758662463.387715, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 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"2023-03-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2016, there was a lot of buzz about the potential use of [airships as heavy-lift cargo aircraft](https://www.mining.com/canadian-rare-earths-mine-transport-ore-using-airships/). Quest Rare Minerals Ltd. had struck a deal with Straitline Aviation to provide airships for hauling ore concentrate, supplies, and personnel between the Strange Lake mine in Northern Quebec and a transportation hub in the town of Schefferville. The plan was for Straitline Aviation to purchase twelve Lockheed-Martin LMH-1 hybrid airships from Hybrid Enterprises (the exclusive dealer of the LMH-1s) for $480 million. The intent was to save the roughly $350 million needed annually to build and maintain a 168-kilometer ice road. The operation was set to begin in 2019. \n\nSince that time, [Quest filed for bankruptcy](https://www.reuters.com/article/brief-quest-rare-minerals-files-proposal-idUSFWN1P00U9), and [Lockheed-Martin no longer markets its LMH-1]( https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2022-07-15/hybrid-airships-make-slow-takeoff) While it may appear that interest in commercial airship applications has waned, there continues to be intense interest and significant financial deals in the works for the industry. \n\nIn July 2022, the French-based cargo company Flying Whales announced they had [secured €122 million]( https://www.cargoforwarder.eu/2022/07/10/flying-whales-are-another-step-closer-to-take-off/) to start the two-year development of their own hybrid airship program for heavy lift cargo. They plan to manufacture their first aerial vehicles in 2024 at a plant near Bordeaux. \n\nFlying Whales is by no means alone in their efforts. In his exhaustive [three-part series covering modern airships]( https://lynceans.org/all-posts/modern-airships-part-1/) Peter Lobner provides an overview of modern airship technology with links to more than 240 individual articles on advanced airship designs. Despite innumerable setbacks, the dream of once again filling the skies with commercial cargo airships is alive and well.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a credible media story or corporate announcement indicates that a full-size working airship with a cargo capacity of at least ten tons has flown a test flight by December 31, 2030", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757686435.391004, "end_time": 1759181737.721905, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5889092684 ], "centers": [ 0.853 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757686435.391004, "end_time": 1759181737.721905, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5889092684 ], "centers": [ 0.853 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14700000000000002, 0.853 ], "means": [ 0.7032203842962208 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0061828972898046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287007.476334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287007.476334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1423483208849745, 0.8576516791150255 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2016, there was a lot of buzz about the potential use of [airships as heavy-lift cargo aircraft](https://www.mining.com/canadian-rare-earths-mine-transport-ore-using-airships/). Quest Rare Minerals Ltd. had struck a deal with Straitline Aviation to provide airships for hauling ore concentrate, supplies, and personnel between the Strange Lake mine in Northern Quebec and a transportation hub in the town of Schefferville. The plan was for Straitline Aviation to purchase twelve Lockheed-Martin LMH-1 hybrid airships from Hybrid Enterprises (the exclusive dealer of the LMH-1s) for $480 million. The intent was to save the roughly $350 million needed annually to build and maintain a 168-kilometer ice road. The operation was set to begin in 2019. \n\nSince that time, [Quest filed for bankruptcy](https://www.reuters.com/article/brief-quest-rare-minerals-files-proposal-idUSFWN1P00U9), and [Lockheed-Martin no longer markets its LMH-1]( https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2022-07-15/hybrid-airships-make-slow-takeoff) While it may appear that interest in commercial airship applications has waned, there continues to be intense interest and significant financial deals in the works for the industry. \n\nIn July 2022, the French-based cargo company Flying Whales announced they had [secured €122 million]( https://www.cargoforwarder.eu/2022/07/10/flying-whales-are-another-step-closer-to-take-off/) to start the two-year development of their own hybrid airship program for heavy lift cargo. They plan to manufacture their first aerial vehicles in 2024 at a plant near Bordeaux. \n\nFlying Whales is by no means alone in their efforts. In his exhaustive [three-part series covering modern airships]( https://lynceans.org/all-posts/modern-airships-part-1/) Peter Lobner provides an overview of modern airship technology with links to more than 240 individual articles on advanced airship designs. Despite innumerable setbacks, the dream of once again filling the skies with commercial cargo airships is alive and well." }, { "id": 15281, "title": "Will European soil moisture be below the reference period for at least 3 out of the 4 years between 2022 and 2025?", "short_title": "Europe soil moisture below trend until 2025?", "url_title": "Europe soil moisture below trend until 2025?", "slug": "europe-soil-moisture-below-trend-until-2025", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-28T15:38:25.298605Z", "published_at": "2023-03-03T15:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T05:34:11.063317Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-03T15:58:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-06-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-03T15:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15281, "title": "Will European soil moisture be below the reference period for at least 3 out of the 4 years between 2022 and 2025?", "created_at": "2023-02-28T15:38:25.298605Z", "open_time": "2023-03-03T15:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-05T15:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-05T15:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-06-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Soil moisture refers to the water content in the top one centimetre of soil. Soil moisture is an essential land surface variable that has a significant impact on many environmental processes, such as the exchange of water and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere, the formation of precipitation and runoff, and the growth of vegetation canopies. Moreover, soil moisture plays a crucial role in the climate system and has a direct impact on the predictability of the atmosphere on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. Accurate measurements and modelling of soil moisture are essential for weather and climate forecasting, particularly in regions like Europe, where precipitation patterns can be highly variable and unpredictable.\n\nAccording to a [2021 ESOTC Copernicus Report](https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2021/soil-moisture) on European soil moisture in 2021, soil moisture was “near average compared to the 1991-2020 reference period”, having improved substantially from large negative deviations in 2018, 2019, and 2020. In 2020, it [“was the third lowest since 1979”](https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2020/soil-moisture) As the 2020 ESOTC points out:\n\n> Since 1979, Europe has seen a downward trend in soil moisture.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if European soil moisture for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 shows negative anomalies from the relevant reference period for at least three of the four years. This will be based on [European State of the Climate ESOTC](https://climate.copernicus.eu/ESOTC) report for 2025. \n\nThis question resolves as **No** if European soil moisture for the years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 shows negative anomalies in two of fewer of the four years. \n\nIf the ESOTC is no longer updating in 2025/2026, if soil moisture is dropped as a relevant variable, or if their reporting of the data does no longer include the relevant resolution value, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the 2025 report and its chosen reference scenario. In the 2021 report, this was the 1991-2020 period, but this may change for later reports (as it has for previous reports). Changes of the reference period do not affect resolution of this question as the only relevant reference period is the one used in the 2025 report.", "post_id": 15281, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758627776.205585, "end_time": 1759055047.022933, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758627776.205585, "end_time": 1759055047.022933, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.3836226813025223 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3938259988704744, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287354.244651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287354.244651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7476198461559986, 0.2523801538440014 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Soil moisture refers to the water content in the top one centimetre of soil. Soil moisture is an essential land surface variable that has a significant impact on many environmental processes, such as the exchange of water and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere, the formation of precipitation and runoff, and the growth of vegetation canopies. Moreover, soil moisture plays a crucial role in the climate system and has a direct impact on the predictability of the atmosphere on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. Accurate measurements and modelling of soil moisture are essential for weather and climate forecasting, particularly in regions like Europe, where precipitation patterns can be highly variable and unpredictable.\n\nAccording to a [2021 ESOTC Copernicus Report](https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2021/soil-moisture) on European soil moisture in 2021, soil moisture was “near average compared to the 1991-2020 reference period”, having improved substantially from large negative deviations in 2018, 2019, and 2020. In 2020, it [“was the third lowest since 1979”](https://climate.copernicus.eu/esotc/2020/soil-moisture) As the 2020 ESOTC points out:\n\n> Since 1979, Europe has seen a downward trend in soil moisture." }, { "id": 15277, "title": "Will Belarus become a EU candidate country before 2030?", "short_title": "Belarus EU Candidate Status before 2030", "url_title": "Belarus EU Candidate Status before 2030", "slug": "belarus-eu-candidate-status-before-2030", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-27T08:42:31.802775Z", "published_at": "2023-03-06T04:07:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T00:05:45.481907Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-06T04:07:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-06T04:07:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15277, "title": "Will Belarus become a EU candidate country before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-02-27T08:42:31.802775Z", "open_time": "2023-03-06T04:07:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-07T23:36:25.104637Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-07T23:36:25.104637Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Belarus established relations with the European Union after gaining independence in 1991, but these relations deteriorated after Alexander Lukashenko became the leader in 1994. The EU has condemned Lukashenko's government for its authoritarian and anti-democratic practices and imposed sanctions on the country. Despite a slight improvement in relations in 2008, the 2010 Belarusian presidential election led to mass demonstrations and arrests, which led to new targeted sanctions from the EU, similarly to the [restrictive measures](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eastern-partnership/belarus/) imposed on Belarus following the use of violence against peaceful protestors after the [2020 Belarus presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests). In 2021, Belarus [suspended its participation](https://www.google.com/search?q=belarus+EU%27s+Eastern+Partnershi&oq=belarus+EU%27s+Eastern+Partnershi&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30i625j0i390l3.1399j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8) in the EU Eastern Partnership, further straining the relationship. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Belarus’ support for Russia, the [EU imposed a number on sanctions against Belarus]( https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-belarus/) further deteriorating the relationship. However, in early 2023, an [internal strategy document](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html?guccounter=1) from Putin’s executive office was leaked that outlined a detailed plan of Russia taking full control of Belarus by 2030, the existence of which [Lukashenko acknowledged](https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1629521798034333696).\n\nDue to the geographical position of Belarus, bordering Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine, its alignment to the EU or Russia over the next decade may become a crucial geopolitical point of tension. While it currently does not seem likely that Belarus will shift westwards and aim to become a member of the European Union, any such shift would have profound geopolitical consequences.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Belarus officially is declared a candidate country for joining the EU according to the European Union. This question resolves on the basis of [this list](https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/joining-eu_en). If this list is no longer available, the question resolves based on official EU announcements that Belarus is a candidate country before 2030.\n\nIf either the EU or Belarus cease existing, this question resolve ambiguously. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15277, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758585934.984569, "end_time": 1760594067.332509, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758585934.984569, "end_time": 1760594067.332509, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.019832793291247378 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.403144798005385, 3.223080955554862, 0.324202988631911, 0.4006007614353819, 0.0373967837296698, 0.5727886909968789, 0.029805049559297095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012080067640697419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33566448758373646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288933.658419, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288933.658419, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 189, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Belarus established relations with the European Union after gaining independence in 1991, but these relations deteriorated after Alexander Lukashenko became the leader in 1994. The EU has condemned Lukashenko's government for its authoritarian and anti-democratic practices and imposed sanctions on the country. Despite a slight improvement in relations in 2008, the 2010 Belarusian presidential election led to mass demonstrations and arrests, which led to new targeted sanctions from the EU, similarly to the [restrictive measures](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eastern-partnership/belarus/) imposed on Belarus following the use of violence against peaceful protestors after the [2020 Belarus presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests). In 2021, Belarus [suspended its participation](https://www.google.com/search?q=belarus+EU%27s+Eastern+Partnershi&oq=belarus+EU%27s+Eastern+Partnershi&aqs=chrome..69i57j0i22i30i625j0i390l3.1399j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8) in the EU Eastern Partnership, further straining the relationship. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Belarus’ support for Russia, the [EU imposed a number on sanctions against Belarus]( https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-belarus/) further deteriorating the relationship. However, in early 2023, an [internal strategy document](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html?guccounter=1) from Putin’s executive office was leaked that outlined a detailed plan of Russia taking full control of Belarus by 2030, the existence of which [Lukashenko acknowledged](https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1629521798034333696).\n\nDue to the geographical position of Belarus, bordering Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine, its alignment to the EU or Russia over the next decade may become a crucial geopolitical point of tension. While it currently does not seem likely that Belarus will shift westwards and aim to become a member of the European Union, any such shift would have profound geopolitical consequences." }, { "id": 15261, "title": "Will visits by a US President to EU member states fall below 1 visit/year for a period of at least three years before 2051?", "short_title": "POTUS visits to EU members drop to <1/year?", "url_title": "POTUS visits to EU members drop to <1/year?", "slug": "potus-visits-to-eu-members-drop-to-1year", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-23T10:27:36.320616Z", "published_at": "2023-03-04T15:53:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.235714Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-04T15:53:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-04T15:53:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15261, "title": "Will visits by a US President to EU member states fall below 1 visit/year for a period of at least three years before 2051?", "created_at": "2023-02-23T10:27:36.320616Z", "open_time": "2023-03-04T15:53:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-06T15:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-06T15:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The EU-US diplomatic relationship is arguably the most important diplomatic relation in the Western sphere of influence. As the [EU parliament liaison office in Washington](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedstates/en/eu-us-relations) phrases it:\n\n> Diplomatic relations between the EU and the U.S. date back to 1953. The relationship between the EU and the U.S. is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. The EU and U.S. are the biggest economic and military powers in the world, dominate global trade, play the leading roles in international political relations, and whatever one says matters a great deal, not only to the other, but to much of the rest of the world.\n\nA strong diplomatic transatlantic relationship between the EU and the US has the potential to shape much of the global balance of power, as it has during the early 21st century. Similarly, a deteriorating of this relationship brings with it substantial geopolitical risks in North America, Europe, and the rest of the world. \n\nOne measure of transatlantic relations is the number of meetings between the US President and EU heads of state. Between 2010 and 2022, US presidents have visited EU member states a total of 39 times according to Wikipedia counts [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Western_Europe), [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Southern_Europe), [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Northern_Europe), and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Eastern_Europe_and_Northern_Asia), resulting in over 3 visits per year on average. These visits are not the only relevant points of diplomatic contact, as visits be Secretaries of State or Defence also matter, but presidential visits arguably carry with them the most weight. A significant slowdown in visits over a prolonged period may be evidence of worsening relations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is a period of at least three years between 2023 and 2050, in which visits by a US President to EU member states average less than 1 visit per year for a three-year period. \n\nThe total number of visits to EU member states will be ascertained by summing up the visits to a EU member state listed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Western_Europe), [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Southern_Europe), [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Northern_Europe), and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Eastern_Europe_and_Northern_Asia). Only visits to a country that is a member of the EU at the time of the visit counts. Several visits to a country within a short period of time count as several visits if they are indicate as distinct visits in the resolution source(s).\n\nThis question resolves as **No** if there is no period of at least three years between 2023 and 2050, in which visits by a US President to EU member states average less than 1 visit per year for a three-year period.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if either the US or the EU (or both) cease existing in a recognisable form. The European Union is understood to cease existing in a recognisable form if either there is no longer a supranational political and economic union of states that are primarily located in Europe called the ‘European Union’, or the union called the ‘EU’ controls less than 50% of its total current area (of 4.233,255.3 km2) or 50% of its total current population (at 447 million). The United States of America is understood to cease existing in a recognisable form if either there is no longer a country known as the ‘United States of America’, or the country called the ‘US’ controls less than 50% of its total current area (of 9,833,520 km2) or 50% of its total current population (at 332 million).", "post_id": 15261, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1743431565.007409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0597448833 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1743431565.007409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0597448833 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.18394156826770017 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6685033077136433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 1.1234069696994655, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289585.268561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289585.268561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9594047533074164, 0.040595246692583624 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The EU-US diplomatic relationship is arguably the most important diplomatic relation in the Western sphere of influence. As the [EU parliament liaison office in Washington](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedstates/en/eu-us-relations) phrases it:\n\n> Diplomatic relations between the EU and the U.S. date back to 1953. The relationship between the EU and the U.S. is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. The EU and U.S. are the biggest economic and military powers in the world, dominate global trade, play the leading roles in international political relations, and whatever one says matters a great deal, not only to the other, but to much of the rest of the world.\n\nA strong diplomatic transatlantic relationship between the EU and the US has the potential to shape much of the global balance of power, as it has during the early 21st century. Similarly, a deteriorating of this relationship brings with it substantial geopolitical risks in North America, Europe, and the rest of the world. \n\nOne measure of transatlantic relations is the number of meetings between the US President and EU heads of state. Between 2010 and 2022, US presidents have visited EU member states a total of 39 times according to Wikipedia counts [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Western_Europe), [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Southern_Europe), [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Northern_Europe), and [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_visits_to_Eastern_Europe_and_Northern_Asia), resulting in over 3 visits per year on average. These visits are not the only relevant points of diplomatic contact, as visits be Secretaries of State or Defence also matter, but presidential visits arguably carry with them the most weight. A significant slowdown in visits over a prolonged period may be evidence of worsening relations." }, { "id": 15259, "title": "Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "60 Minute Twitter Outage Before Mid-2023", "url_title": "60 Minute Twitter Outage Before Mid-2023", "slug": "60-minute-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" }, { "id": 123419, "username": "Prodicus" } ], "created_at": "2023-02-23T09:59:23.771860Z", "published_at": "2023-02-27T18:03:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.745152Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-27T18:03:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-03T15:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-03T15:33:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-27T18:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15259, "title": "Will there be a Twitter outage resulting in no tweets for more than 60 minutes before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-23T09:59:23.771860Z", "open_time": "2023-02-27T18:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-01T05:12:47.981591Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-01T05:12:47.981591Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-03T15:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-03T15:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-03T15:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question is a successor to a [previous](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13499/6-hour-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/) [set](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13538/60-minute-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/). The background has been adapted and updated from this original version.*\n\n---\n\nTwitter is a social media platform that allows users to post messages (or ‘tweets’). The website has more than [300 million daily active users]( https://www.businessofapps.com/data/twitter-statistics/) in early 2023, amassing a total of over [350,000 tweets per minute](https://www.dsayce.com/social-media/tweets-day/). On October 27th, 2022, Twitter was [bought by Elon Musk](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, for a total of $44 billion.\n\nSince Musk’s buyout, there have been massive layoffs across most parts of the company, including its [engineering department](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-layoffs-engineering-spreadsheet-1849767712). For example, in November 2022, Twitter [slashed nearly half of its workforce](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/04/twitter-layoffs-elon-musk-revenue-drop), with further layoffs occurring [in late December 2022](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/tech/twitter-layoffs-continue/index.html). \n\nThese layoffs have raised the worry that Twitter may not be able to continuously offer its services and avoid prolonged outages. There are daily reports of minor Twitter outages submitted by users [every day](https://downdetector.com/status/twitter/), but given the size of Twitter and its user base, these do not constitute global prolonged outages. However, the risk of a global outage of significant duration remains. According to a [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/technology/elon-musk-twitter-takeover.html) article from Nov 11, 2022: “In Redbird, Twitter’s platform and infrastructure organization, Mr. Musk shed numerous managers. The unit also lost about 80 percent of its engineering staff, raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to keep its site up and running.” That same article also reported, as a result of these layoffs, a ratio of 70 engineers to each product manager at Twitter.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if both Condition 1 and Condition 2 occur before July 1, 2023. Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**.\n\n* Condition 1: There are [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that a global Twitter outage has occurred.\n\n* Condition 2: For a period of more than 60 minutes during the reported outage, no tweets have been posted, as measured by a custom search for the word \"the\" encompassing the time of the outage. This will be ascertained through the [advanced search operators](https://github.com/igorbrigadir/twitter-advanced-search/) that allow for the searching of any tweets during a specific time. For example [here's a search query](https://twitter.com/search?q=the%20since%3A2022-12-31_23%3A59%3A59_UTC%20%20until%3A2023-01-01_00%3A01%3A00_UTC&src=typed_query&f=live) for the first minute of 2023 in [Coordinated Universal Time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time) (UTC).", "fine_print": "* Twitter collapsing or shutting down so that Twitter search is unavailable and does not return in a timely manner is sufficient to resolve as **Yes**. If this occurs Metaculus may use its judgement to make a determination according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n* If Twitter is still operational but removes the necessary search functionality, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 15259, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688205754.99613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.029 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688205754.99613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.029 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.022257377079911076 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.9488465696693416, 6.983612464260947, 1.5000116687807332, 2.3319982700071256, 0.0, 0.3490948747190947, 0.14249169373242543, 0.44779117443944044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1131749211359033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0134789797452288, 0.010410228191898815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011871193631835357, 0.0, 0.05305472161733088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028594267247472834, 0.0, 0.003479479546953281, 0.1490460999152466, 0.0, 0.0023098888201352648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007887135632217103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013954015504436714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0331191247199604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006805670804060742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005832286250484877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.848089343106265, "coverage": 0.9994238362349416, "baseline_score": 76.729143846417, "spot_peer_score": 1.604556072759843, "peer_archived_score": 9.848089343106265, "baseline_archived_score": 76.729143846417, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.604556072759843 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688205755.024075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688205755.024075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994059709548768, 0.0005940290451231902 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 238, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question is a successor to a [previous](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13499/6-hour-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/) [set](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13538/60-minute-twitter-outage-before-mid-2023/). The background has been adapted and updated from this original version.*\n\n---\n\nTwitter is a social media platform that allows users to post messages (or ‘tweets’). The website has more than [300 million daily active users]( https://www.businessofapps.com/data/twitter-statistics/) in early 2023, amassing a total of over [350,000 tweets per minute](https://www.dsayce.com/social-media/tweets-day/). On October 27th, 2022, Twitter was [bought by Elon Musk](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/27/technology/elon-musk-twitter-deal-complete.html), CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, for a total of $44 billion.\n\nSince Musk’s buyout, there have been massive layoffs across most parts of the company, including its [engineering department](https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-twitter-layoffs-engineering-spreadsheet-1849767712). For example, in November 2022, Twitter [slashed nearly half of its workforce](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/nov/04/twitter-layoffs-elon-musk-revenue-drop), with further layoffs occurring [in late December 2022](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/tech/twitter-layoffs-continue/index.html). \n\nThese layoffs have raised the worry that Twitter may not be able to continuously offer its services and avoid prolonged outages. There are daily reports of minor Twitter outages submitted by users [every day](https://downdetector.com/status/twitter/), but given the size of Twitter and its user base, these do not constitute global prolonged outages. However, the risk of a global outage of significant duration remains. According to a [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/11/technology/elon-musk-twitter-takeover.html) article from Nov 11, 2022: “In Redbird, Twitter’s platform and infrastructure organization, Mr. Musk shed numerous managers. The unit also lost about 80 percent of its engineering staff, raising internal concerns about the company’s ability to keep its site up and running.” That same article also reported, as a result of these layoffs, a ratio of 70 engineers to each product manager at Twitter." }, { "id": 15258, "title": "Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Major Transnistria conflict before July 2023", "url_title": "Major Transnistria conflict before July 2023", "slug": "major-transnistria-conflict-before-july-2023", "author_id": 132719, "author_username": "MetaCalculator", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-23T06:34:28.746012Z", "published_at": "2023-02-26T10:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.892311Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-26T10:54:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T13:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T13:49:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-26T10:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15258, "title": "Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-23T06:34:28.746012Z", "open_time": "2023-02-26T10:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-27T11:49:36.051239Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-27T11:49:36.051239Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T13:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-06T13:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-06T13:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Transnistria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria) is a separatist-controlled region of Moldova, controlled by a pro-Russian government since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since the start of the Ukraine War, there have been numerous reports of a potential invasion of the region. These include possible original Russian invasion plans in early 2022, and [several attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Transnistria_attacks) between April and May 2022.\n\nIn recent days, multiple sources warned regarding possible escalations in Transnistria. The Russian Ministry of Defense has [reported](https://lenta-ru.translate.goog/news/2023/02/23/provokaciya/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp) on the potential of \"Ukrainian troops invading Transnistria while wearing Russian uniforms.\" Meanwhile, Moldova has [warned](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/09/moldova-accuses-russia-of-destabilization-attempts-a801910) about possible Russian destabilizing actions in the region.\n\nOn the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reasons for Russia, Ukraine, or Moldova, or forces acting on their behalf, to initiate major conflict in Transnistria could range from securing the breakaway territory for themselves, denying the same to their enemy, or, in particular, capturing the [Cobasna ammunition depot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot), said to house a large amount of ammunition that both Russia or Ukraine could use in their war efforts, or alternatively, destroying it to deny its use to the respective other.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes**, if on or before June 30, 2023, [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) of media outlets report of a significant conflict in Transnistria. To resolve as **Yes**, any one of the following events qualifies as a \"major\" conflict:\n\n* An invasion of Transnistria by uniformed ground forces of any other state (including Moldova).\n* A media report report of a significant number of non-uniformed or clandestine soldiers actively engaging in armed action in Transnistria, provided that credible media reports them as non-Transnistrians. \n* Aerial or missile attacks on Transnistria causing at least one death or major infrastructure damage (such as the destruction of the Cobasna ammunition depot), provided that credible media reports these attacks as deliberate and originating outside of Transnistria.\n* Unauthorized (by Transnistria) actions attributed to external states that result in a change of Transnistria's government, or a change in its legal or occupational status as a state, whether or not such actions involved physical violence or destruction (e.g. the 2014 Crimea takeover by Russia.)\n\nIf no major conflict in Transnistria, meeting the above criteria, takes place before July 2023, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Exceptions:\n\n* In case of an invasion or armed action of uniformed or non-uniformed soldiers, such action must be reported to either last for at least 72 consecutive hours, or achieve another significant objective by this time, such as government takeover, physical occupation of a city or other strategic territory, or major infrastructure damage. An armed action lasting for a shorter amount of time and not reported to achieve any similar objectives, will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* Conflict not progressing beyond Transnistria's borders (e.g. short-range cross-border shelling) will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* Purely internal conflicts (protest, revolts, rebellions, etc.) with no reported involvement by external states (including Moldova), or minor provocations not resulting in casualties or significant infrastructure damage (such as the 2022 Transnistria attacks) will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* A change in Transnistria's legal status or de-facto control, done via purely diplomatic means and not formally contested by the acting government of Transnistria (such as by a treaty as part of concluding or freezing the Ukraine war), will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* Media reports for events 2 and 3 are sufficient even if there is some uncertainty in the language used. For example if a significant number of clandestine soldiers are \"alleged\" or \"suspected\" to be involved that will be sufficient. Metaculus will make a determination according to their judgement as to whether the specified criteria have been met.\n\nIn case of a different type of conflict in Transnistria, Metaculus staff reserves the right to determine if it constitutes a \"major conflict\", as best relating to the given examples.", "post_id": 15258, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688189852.833067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688189852.833067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.016736498154863718 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.350689460769338, 5.796208692682608, 0.17598767219968955, 0.5601253215526814, 0.3752871243742183, 0.7750208376490839, 0.005712198004389287, 0.1717974906989278, 0.0, 0.16539083112452557, 0.01762876424560678, 0.0, 0.008178451525312864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06826140917396885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0631635962506171, 0.21237997280658333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009185720105440897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04690705299671533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02502385235281025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015702488363776796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00646051809270714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.986995301381871, "coverage": 0.99979378112389, "baseline_score": 80.00640739941517, "spot_peer_score": -15.464740755721573, "peer_archived_score": 7.986995301381871, "baseline_archived_score": 80.00640739941517, "spot_peer_archived_score": -15.464740755721573 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688189852.856698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688189852.856698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 206, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Transnistria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria) is a separatist-controlled region of Moldova, controlled by a pro-Russian government since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since the start of the Ukraine War, there have been numerous reports of a potential invasion of the region. These include possible original Russian invasion plans in early 2022, and [several attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Transnistria_attacks) between April and May 2022.\n\nIn recent days, multiple sources warned regarding possible escalations in Transnistria. The Russian Ministry of Defense has [reported](https://lenta-ru.translate.goog/news/2023/02/23/provokaciya/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-US&_x_tr_pto=wapp) on the potential of \"Ukrainian troops invading Transnistria while wearing Russian uniforms.\" Meanwhile, Moldova has [warned](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/09/moldova-accuses-russia-of-destabilization-attempts-a801910) about possible Russian destabilizing actions in the region.\n\nOn the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reasons for Russia, Ukraine, or Moldova, or forces acting on their behalf, to initiate major conflict in Transnistria could range from securing the breakaway territory for themselves, denying the same to their enemy, or, in particular, capturing the [Cobasna ammunition depot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot), said to house a large amount of ammunition that both Russia or Ukraine could use in their war efforts, or alternatively, destroying it to deny its use to the respective other." }, { "id": 15254, "title": "Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?", "short_title": "ANC receiving >50% of the vote in 2024", "url_title": "ANC receiving >50% of the vote in 2024", "slug": "anc-receiving-50-of-the-vote-in-2024", "author_id": 138176, "author_username": "oscarstrauss1", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-22T09:54:15.322714Z", "published_at": "2023-02-26T10:42:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.146858Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-26T10:42:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-26T10:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15254, "title": "Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election?", "created_at": "2023-02-22T09:54:15.322714Z", "open_time": "2023-02-26T10:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-28T10:42:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-28T10:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The African National Congress (ANC) is a political party in South Africa that has been in power since the country's first democratic elections in [1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_African_National_Congress). The party was founded in 1912 and played a key role in the fight against apartheid, South Africa's former system of racial segregation.\n\nSouth Africa has a parliamentary system of government, with a president as head of state and a prime minister as head of government. The country's legislature is known as the National Assembly, and members of parliament are elected every five years through a proportional representation system.\n\nThe next South African general election is scheduled to be held in [2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_African_general_election), which will elect the National Assembly, as well as provincial legislatures.\n\nIn recent years, the ANC has faced [significant challenges](https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2022/07/05/corruption-african-national-congress-south-africa-243297), including allegations of corruption and mismanagement, as well as growing dissatisfaction among the population over the slow pace of progress in addressing issues such as crime, poverty, unemployment and inequality. The [energy crisis](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/25/south-africa-energy-crisis-corruption-anc/) that has resulted in increasingly frequent and severe national blackouts since 2007 – caused by mismanagement, neglect and widespread corruption at the state-run power utility, Eskom – has thrown a stark spotlight on the ANC’s failures as a governing party. As a result, it has seen declining levels of support in many areas of the country, even in areas traditionally considered ANC strongholds.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the ANC receives more than 50% of the votes. The question resolves as **No** otherwise. \n\nThis question resolves on the basis of the official results of the 2024 general election based on the [Electoral Commission of South Africa](https://www.elections.org.za/pw/) and its [election results page](https://results.elections.org.za/home/). \n\nIf the resolution source does not post the results, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the election may instead be used to determine the vote share of the ANC.\n\nIf the election is held prior to 2024 or postponed into 2025 (or later), or if the election is not held at all, this question resolves as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15254, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714458283.589785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714458283.589785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21109452371045745 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7919489104426727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0339977085555509, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9382529004808162, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.5328025994368866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29316655605839415, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.22282135681621, "coverage": 0.9998502512046228, "baseline_score": 4.784984551192655, "spot_peer_score": -1.6653345369377348e-14, "peer_archived_score": 22.22282135681621, "baseline_archived_score": 4.784984551192655, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.6653345369377348e-14 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714462416.930915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714462416.930915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9225035004275752, 0.07749649957242476 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 140, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The African National Congress (ANC) is a political party in South Africa that has been in power since the country's first democratic elections in [1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_African_National_Congress). The party was founded in 1912 and played a key role in the fight against apartheid, South Africa's former system of racial segregation.\n\nSouth Africa has a parliamentary system of government, with a president as head of state and a prime minister as head of government. The country's legislature is known as the National Assembly, and members of parliament are elected every five years through a proportional representation system.\n\nThe next South African general election is scheduled to be held in [2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_African_general_election), which will elect the National Assembly, as well as provincial legislatures.\n\nIn recent years, the ANC has faced [significant challenges](https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2022/07/05/corruption-african-national-congress-south-africa-243297), including allegations of corruption and mismanagement, as well as growing dissatisfaction among the population over the slow pace of progress in addressing issues such as crime, poverty, unemployment and inequality. The [energy crisis](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/25/south-africa-energy-crisis-corruption-anc/) that has resulted in increasingly frequent and severe national blackouts since 2007 – caused by mismanagement, neglect and widespread corruption at the state-run power utility, Eskom – has thrown a stark spotlight on the ANC’s failures as a governing party. As a result, it has seen declining levels of support in many areas of the country, even in areas traditionally considered ANC strongholds." }, { "id": 15253, "title": "Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?", "short_title": "US alleges Russia exceeds New START limits?", "url_title": "US alleges Russia exceeds New START limits?", "slug": "us-alleges-russia-exceeds-new-start-limits", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119767, "username": "PhilippSchoenegger" }, { "id": 118883, "username": "Scoblic" } ], "created_at": "2023-02-21T21:15:49.347485Z", "published_at": "2023-02-27T17:09:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.376177Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-27T17:09:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-27T17:09:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15253, "title": "Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-02-21T21:15:49.347485Z", "open_time": "2023-02-27T17:09:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-01T17:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-01T17:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T12:06:20.658709Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)](https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/140035.pdf) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty signed by the United States and Russia in 2010. The treaty imposes [limits](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) on the number of deployed strategic nuclear arms, though it [does not](https://theatlasnews.co/conflict/2023/02/21/russia-officially-suspends-new-start-treaty/) limit the number of operationally inactive warheads. See below for the treaty limits and the [September 2022 data](https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty-aggregate-numbers-of-strategic-offensive-arms-3/) on actual deployments:\n\n| Type | Limit | US | Russia |\n|--------------------------------------|-------|-----|--------|\n| Deployed missiles and bombers | 700 | 659 | 540 |\n| Deployed warheads (RVs and bombers) | 1,550 | 1420 | 1549 |\n| Deployed and non-deployed launchers (missile tubes and bombers) | 800 | 800 | 759 |\n\n\nThe treaty also includes [verification and transparency measures](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) to ensure compliance with its terms. The New START treaty replaced the START treaty, which had expired in 2009. The treaty was extended in 2021 for five years by the United States and Russia, maintaining its limits on nuclear arms.\n\nIn early February 2023, the U.S. State Department [reported](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-russia-has-violated-nuclear-arms-treaty-by-blocking-inspections-11675183584) that Russia was in \"noncompliance\" with the treaty because it refused to allow on-site inspections and had cancelled a meeting of the Bilateral Consultative Commission, a body the treaty established to address such concerns.\n\nOn February 21, 2023, Vladimir Putin [announced](https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-suspends-new-start-nuclear-arms-treaty-with-u-s-6498b44) in his State of the Nation address that Russia was [suspending its participation in the treaty](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/21/what-is-new-start-treaty/), suggesting that it will not permit inspections or meet with U.S. representatives via the Bilateral Consultative Commission. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that [Russia will continue to honor the New START limits](https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1628082666498142213?cxt=HHwWisC9meWjjpgtAAAA).\n\n***Will the US claim Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?***\n\nThis question resolves as \"Yes\" if, before 2025, reputable sources report that US officials have concluded Russia has exceeded New START's limits.\n\nThe question will also resolve as \"Yes\" if Russia itself announces it will no longer abide by New START limits.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15253, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654659.923392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654659.923392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.15262302540036696 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.883868694722232, 1.2925770816257216, 1.0774142301392209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.2961892157721111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.3325315572279212, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05855889144026411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.32556451098095357, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553, 0.014010486522538886, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18729506327225287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23985886050566377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07852785756278537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190235437913919 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 6.955090281871182, "peer_score": 33.35818598902389, "coverage": 0.9998447531088579, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998447531088579, "spot_peer_score": -18.22184398425894, "spot_baseline_score": -2.914634565951651, "baseline_archived_score": 6.955090281871182, "peer_archived_score": 33.35818598902389, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -18.22184398425894, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -2.914634565951651 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287663.023898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287663.023898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9519587461929946, 0.04804125380700541 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
