Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3380
{ "count": 6367, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3400", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3360", "results": [ { "id": 19765, "title": "Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Donald Trump Jailed Before 2024?", "url_title": "Donald Trump Jailed Before 2024?", "slug": "donald-trump-jailed-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-01T22:23:50.310151Z", "published_at": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.557852Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:34:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19765, "title": "Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-01T22:23:50.310151Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-02T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-02T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump is facing [four indictments](https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/07/politics/trump-indictments-criminal-cases/) (in [New York, Florida, Washington DC, and Georgia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictments_against_Donald_Trump)) as well as a [civil case in New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_civil_investigation_of_The_Trump_Organization).\n\nIn the New York civil case, Trump was fined twice, first for $5,000 [on October 20](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/20/trump-threatened-with-prison-for-violating-gag-order.html) and then again for $10,000 [on October 25](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-fined-10000-over-comment-about-judges-staff-in-new-york-civil-fraud-trial), for violating a gag order against commenting publicly about Judge Arthur Engoron's staff.\n\nTrump was also subject to a gag order imposed in the DC case by Judge Tanya Chutkan on October 16th against commenting about court staff, prosecutors, or witnesses. That gag order was lifted on October 20th after Trump appealed, but was [reinstated on October 29th](https://www.yahoo.com/news/federal-judge-revives-donald-trump-124156833.html).\n\nFollowing the reinstatement, Ty Cobb, former White House lawyer during Trump's presidency, [said](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-violate-gag-order-jail-ty-cobb-1839408):\n\n>Well, the New York judge fined him $10,000. That’s in a civil case. That’s not as consequential as Judge Chutkan’s case. . . I think she’ll come in with a much heavier penalty, and ultimately, I think he’ll spend a night or a weekend in jail.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Donald Trump has been confined to a jail or prison cell for at least one hour as a result of court proceedings.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19765, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034170.140014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034170.140014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.10496160088035561 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.680471812393105, 8.906033633676657, 0.023208204925847006, 0.0030558227494655605, 0.012955591556190294, 0.26273722652241055, 0.04788968964425062, 0.00012817962046912263, 0.005537830714382473, 0.010235060515970255, 0.007766273478005015, 0.0, 3.0667569021157886e-05, 7.647058950878276e-05, 0.0, 0.16874131330251363, 0.0, 0.004123281004336947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005249468073591107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.076579913514921e-05, 0.00017334026632215358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402100083180224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.920571069135066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8830657200702908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01031123483296608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9595319366703575 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.1690769697106695, "coverage": 0.9999871093205894, "baseline_score": 94.43064240885221, "spot_peer_score": 9.381093140792752, "peer_archived_score": 5.1690769697106695, "baseline_archived_score": 94.43064240885221, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.381093140792752 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034170.172768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034170.172768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 534, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump is facing [four indictments](https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/07/politics/trump-indictments-criminal-cases/) (in [New York, Florida, Washington DC, and Georgia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indictments_against_Donald_Trump)) as well as a [civil case in New York](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_civil_investigation_of_The_Trump_Organization).\n\nIn the New York civil case, Trump was fined twice, first for $5,000 [on October 20](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/20/trump-threatened-with-prison-for-violating-gag-order.html) and then again for $10,000 [on October 25](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/trump-fined-10000-over-comment-about-judges-staff-in-new-york-civil-fraud-trial), for violating a gag order against commenting publicly about Judge Arthur Engoron's staff.\n\nTrump was also subject to a gag order imposed in the DC case by Judge Tanya Chutkan on October 16th against commenting about court staff, prosecutors, or witnesses. That gag order was lifted on October 20th after Trump appealed, but was [reinstated on October 29th](https://www.yahoo.com/news/federal-judge-revives-donald-trump-124156833.html).\n\nFollowing the reinstatement, Ty Cobb, former White House lawyer during Trump's presidency, [said](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-violate-gag-order-jail-ty-cobb-1839408):\n\n>Well, the New York judge fined him $10,000. That’s in a civil case. That’s not as consequential as Judge Chutkan’s case. . . I think she’ll come in with a much heavier penalty, and ultimately, I think he’ll spend a night or a weekend in jail." }, { "id": 19764, "title": "Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Second Starship Integrated Test Before 2024?", "url_title": "Second Starship Integrated Test Before 2024?", "slug": "second-starship-integrated-test-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-01T21:34:54.112111Z", "published_at": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.695195Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-18T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-18T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19764, "title": "Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-01T21:34:54.112111Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-05T14:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-05T14:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-18T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-18T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-18T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starship-explosion-spread-particulate-matter-for-miles.html) and the launch produced significant debris and particulate matter that led to concerns of the potential impact on the surrounding environment and community.\n\nIn response, the [Federal Aviation Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Administration) (FAA) conducted a mishap investigation, a safety review, and an environmental review. The mishap investigation [ended on September 8, requiring 63 corrective actions](https://spacenews.com/faa-closes-starship-mishap-investigation-directs-63-corrective-actions-for-spacex/), and the safety investigation [concluded on October 31](https://www.space.com/faa-finishes-spacex-starship-safety-review). However, the environmental review is still pending. [According to space.com](https://www.space.com/faa-finishes-spacex-starship-safety-review), the FAA stated:\n\n>The FAA is continuing to work on the environmental review. As part of its environmental review, the FAA is consulting with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) on an updated Biological Assessment under the Endangered Species Act. The FAA and the USFWS must complete this consultation before the environmental review portion of the license evaluation is completed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the second Starship integrated flight test occurs and Starship leaves the launchpad intact and under its own power.", "fine_print": "An integrated flight test requires the Starship spacecraft to be stacked on top of the [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) with both launched together.", "post_id": 19764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700313406.59026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.992 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700313406.59026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.992 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9387378524870454 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006398679769312256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003390634142220875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018674127829225928, 0.0, 0.0012515466035336708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005258417441048667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004943981799439977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02340040377087851, 0.0014504254020369168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0014080061372469769, 0.01085885475966403, 0.0, 0.0029268881275595258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6691934140160116, 0.8321391740211248, 0.24717103491016296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013691759911577103, 0.0, 0.005888885413401084, 0.0038538908356389482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27742570457074694, 0.0, 1.278936911424331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4712589218247873, 0.02027741262671457, 0.0, 0.0007681136336700427, 0.12466810736537795, 1.5389559686831045, 1.0348307656735622, 0.514666925273071, 0.019895982148904024, 10.39262239900967 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.098316017524141, "coverage": 0.2682290678983379, "baseline_score": 16.22641886620459, "spot_peer_score": 44.320878597171905, "peer_archived_score": 6.098316017524141, "baseline_archived_score": 16.22641886620459, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.320878597171905 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700307149.92773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700307149.92773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.044261692599067204, 0.9557383074009328 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 331, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starship-explosion-spread-particulate-matter-for-miles.html) and the launch produced significant debris and particulate matter that led to concerns of the potential impact on the surrounding environment and community.\n\nIn response, the [Federal Aviation Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Administration) (FAA) conducted a mishap investigation, a safety review, and an environmental review. The mishap investigation [ended on September 8, requiring 63 corrective actions](https://spacenews.com/faa-closes-starship-mishap-investigation-directs-63-corrective-actions-for-spacex/), and the safety investigation [concluded on October 31](https://www.space.com/faa-finishes-spacex-starship-safety-review). However, the environmental review is still pending. [According to space.com](https://www.space.com/faa-finishes-spacex-starship-safety-review), the FAA stated:\n\n>The FAA is continuing to work on the environmental review. As part of its environmental review, the FAA is consulting with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) on an updated Biological Assessment under the Endangered Species Act. The FAA and the USFWS must complete this consultation before the environmental review portion of the license evaluation is completed." }, { "id": 19754, "title": "Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?", "short_title": "VAT reduction of German plant-based milk?", "url_title": "VAT reduction of German plant-based milk?", "slug": "vat-reduction-of-german-plant-based-milk", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-11-01T13:32:21.507474Z", "published_at": "2023-12-12T21:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.868286Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-12T21:24:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T16:28:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-12T21:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T06:26:18.646047Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2995, "type": "question_series", "name": "Animal Welfare Series", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "close_date": "2200-01-02T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:21.180476Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T06:26:18.646047Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19754, "title": "Will the German value-added tax (VAT) of plant-based milks be reduced to be the same as cow's milk by end of 2024?", "created_at": "2023-11-01T13:32:21.507474Z", "open_time": "2023-12-12T21:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-15T21:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-15T21:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T16:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T16:36:11.390180Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Most basic foods in Germany are only taxed by 7% VAT. Plant-based milk is currently taxed at the default 19%. [Recently, the Green party and the governing SPD talked about reducing the VAT for plant-based milks.](https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/verbraucher/mehrwertsteuer-milchersatzprodukte-100.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** based on credible reports that the German government has reduced the VAT rate for plant-based milks to the same VAT that is used for cow's milk, which is currently 7%. This change must be announced an implemented before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "- In order for the question to resolve Yes, the change must be implemented. If it is only announced, the question resolves **No**.\n- The VAT of plant-based milk must be reduced from the current 19% for a Yes resolution.", "post_id": 19754, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735653775.308922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735653775.308922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.994, 0.006 ], "means": [ 0.017189999614026407 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.2144806792157805, 1.737967589575487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1636796789713562, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.74196821880011, "peer_score": 1.9184815530374555, "coverage": 0.9996514498991581, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996514498991581, "spot_peer_score": 0.2774123815303614, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 82.74196821880011, "peer_archived_score": 1.9184815530374555, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.2774123815303614, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287158.68092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287158.68092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9888387503574907, 0.011161249642509292 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Most basic foods in Germany are only taxed by 7% VAT. Plant-based milk is currently taxed at the default 19%. [Recently, the Green party and the governing SPD talked about reducing the VAT for plant-based milks.](https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/verbraucher/mehrwertsteuer-milchersatzprodukte-100.html)" }, { "id": 19741, "title": "Will Macky Sall step down as president of Senegal at or before the currently scheduled end of his term?", "short_title": "Senegal's Macky Sall Out at End of Term?", "url_title": "Senegal's Macky Sall Out at End of Term?", "slug": "senegals-macky-sall-out-at-end-of-term", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-31T06:28:37.043889Z", "published_at": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.966385Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-02T18:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", 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"2024-04-02T18:28:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Senegal was [scheduled to hold presidential elections on February 25, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Senegalese_presidential_election), but on February 5 Senegalese President [Macky Sall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macky_Sall) announced that the elections would be [delayed until December](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/05/africa/senegal-parliament-debates-extending-presidents-mandate-intl/index.html). The delayed vote has led to [protests and unrest](https://news.yahoo.com/ahead-planned-march-over-vote-122105603.html), as well as a state crackdown against the protests.\n\nSall's term is scheduled to end on April 2, 2024, and the delayed elections have [led to uncertainty regarding whether Sall will respect the term limit](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68253255).\n\nSenegal is in the geographical region of Africa that has seen a high rate of coups the past three years. Despite this, Senegal had previously maintained some stability and helped coordinate responses against coups elsewhere in the region.\n\nYet when Sall was [interviewed by *The Economist*](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/10/26/senegals-president-asks-if-democracy-can-work-in-africas-coup-belt) in October 2023 he asked,\n\n> \"Is democracy as we want to do it really suitable?\"\n\nPreviously there had been a damaging fight between the incumbent president and an opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko. The Economist wrote,\n\n> The fight centres around the question of whether Senegal’s government is trying to tilt the election by using the courts to keep Mr Sonko off the ballot.\n\nThis has involved accusations of rape (acquitted), corruption of youth (convicted), plotting an insurrection (still active). The opposition claims this is repeating a pattern from 2019 when the opposition was also barred from running due to criminal convictions. The incumbent president denies this.\n\n> The charge and conviction sparked large protests, some of them violent, in support of Mr Sonko. The demonstrations were also fuelled by hints from Mr Sall that he might try to run for a third presidential term, even though Senegal’s constitution has a two-term limit. It was only in July that Mr Sall definitively said he would not seek office again, after more than two years of protests and at least 37 deaths, according to Amnesty International, a rights group.\n\n> Mr Sall’s announcement led to a lull in the violence, though it lasted less than a month until Mr Sonko was once more arrested. The government also dissolved his political party, Pastef, and arrested many of its leaders, including several mayors. As protests flared, the government cut mobile-internet access for almost a week.\n\nThere seems to be insecurities around how peaceful Senegal's democracy really is:\n\n> Many fear more violence before the election, especially if Mr Sonko is definitively barred from running. Even Mr Sall prevaricates when asked if he expects the election to be peaceful. [...] Mr Sall bristles at the suggestion there has been a backsliding of democracy on his watch. “Those who say that [there has been] are supporters of anarchy and chaos,” he retorts. “Senegal has no lessons in democracy to learn from anyone.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 4, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Macky Sall has stepped down from the office of president of Senegal.", "fine_print": "* This question requires Sall to acknowledge the end of his presidency or to otherwise comply with the end of his presidency, and will resolve as **No** if Sall's seat or power is contested for any reason but he has refused to step down. This includes cases where Sall is arrested or flees the country but does not relinquish his claim to the presidency, in those cases the question would resolve as **No**.\n* This question asks whether Macky Sall will step down before April 4, 2024, and will still resolve as **No** if a law is enacted that extends the end of his term and he remains president of Senegal on April 4, 2024.\n* If Sall steps down as president but announces before April 4, 2024, that he will continue on as interim or caretake president, or a similar position, and holds that position through April 4, it will not count as having stepped down and the question will resolve as **No**.\n* To resolve as **Yes** there must be credible reports published before April 4, 2024, that state that Sall is complying with the end of his term. If the available reporting indicates that Sall has remained silent or has otherwise not confirmed or complied with the end of his term the question will resolve as **No**.\n* If Sall dies the question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* If the circumstances are difficult to discern or reports conflict, Metaculus may use the available information to make a determination or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 19741, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712165902.032957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712165902.032957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9652156199510501 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.010790073396447676, 0.000560044871523829, 0.0, 0.00026933773180300467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11666173967363361, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20113652926608147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002128626123411258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004075565365447296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011476318570691885, 0.0, 0.0016763820783180668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009270746381897505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031655044817970844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040872411115659646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0494573638147553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019882322637170463, 0.17086522415145955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11293714585221006, 0.02528200442990483, 0.0068953792186266984, 0.0, 0.06730658058907446, 1.6010988965224346, 0.0, 1.548455513231336, 0.5710703272953515, 12.390737958818871 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 43.003688916210955, "coverage": 0.9762311147463006, "baseline_score": 66.5510547862016, "spot_peer_score": 28.403756691048912, "peer_archived_score": 43.003688916210955, "baseline_archived_score": 66.5510547862016, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.403756691048912 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712046105.785391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712046105.785391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01924010621872152, 0.9807598937812785 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 404, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Senegal was [scheduled to hold presidential elections on February 25, 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Senegalese_presidential_election), but on February 5 Senegalese President [Macky Sall](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macky_Sall) announced that the elections would be [delayed until December](https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/05/africa/senegal-parliament-debates-extending-presidents-mandate-intl/index.html). The delayed vote has led to [protests and unrest](https://news.yahoo.com/ahead-planned-march-over-vote-122105603.html), as well as a state crackdown against the protests.\n\nSall's term is scheduled to end on April 2, 2024, and the delayed elections have [led to uncertainty regarding whether Sall will respect the term limit](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68253255).\n\nSenegal is in the geographical region of Africa that has seen a high rate of coups the past three years. Despite this, Senegal had previously maintained some stability and helped coordinate responses against coups elsewhere in the region.\n\nYet when Sall was [interviewed by *The Economist*](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2023/10/26/senegals-president-asks-if-democracy-can-work-in-africas-coup-belt) in October 2023 he asked,\n\n> \"Is democracy as we want to do it really suitable?\"\n\nPreviously there had been a damaging fight between the incumbent president and an opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko. The Economist wrote,\n\n> The fight centres around the question of whether Senegal’s government is trying to tilt the election by using the courts to keep Mr Sonko off the ballot.\n\nThis has involved accusations of rape (acquitted), corruption of youth (convicted), plotting an insurrection (still active). The opposition claims this is repeating a pattern from 2019 when the opposition was also barred from running due to criminal convictions. The incumbent president denies this.\n\n> The charge and conviction sparked large protests, some of them violent, in support of Mr Sonko. The demonstrations were also fuelled by hints from Mr Sall that he might try to run for a third presidential term, even though Senegal’s constitution has a two-term limit. It was only in July that Mr Sall definitively said he would not seek office again, after more than two years of protests and at least 37 deaths, according to Amnesty International, a rights group.\n\n> Mr Sall’s announcement led to a lull in the violence, though it lasted less than a month until Mr Sonko was once more arrested. The government also dissolved his political party, Pastef, and arrested many of its leaders, including several mayors. As protests flared, the government cut mobile-internet access for almost a week.\n\nThere seems to be insecurities around how peaceful Senegal's democracy really is:\n\n> Many fear more violence before the election, especially if Mr Sonko is definitively barred from running. Even Mr Sall prevaricates when asked if he expects the election to be peaceful. [...] Mr Sall bristles at the suggestion there has been a backsliding of democracy on his watch. “Those who say that [there has been] are supporters of anarchy and chaos,” he retorts. “Senegal has no lessons in democracy to learn from anyone.”" }, { "id": 19724, "title": "Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Russia Expanded Territory in Ukraine in 2026?", "url_title": "Russia Expanded Territory in Ukraine in 2026?", "slug": "russia-expanded-territory-in-ukraine-in-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-30T19:16:42.970333Z", "published_at": "2023-11-02T19:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:44:48.532944Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-02T19:14:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-02T19:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 388, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19724, "title": "Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2023-10-30T19:16:42.970333Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T19:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-03T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-has-been-slow-but-western-support-remains-strong--even-with-new-war-in-middle-east-215707295.html), and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1gg5PBOaPGAuOjX5kCafOgNIBMWW-ZdI&ehbc=2E312F\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2026, Russia has de facto control of specific key locations which it currently controls as of October 30, 2023, and also controls two or more additional specified locations that it currently does not. Resolution will be determined according to maps produced by the [Institute for the Study of War](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap) (ISW). The relevant locations are listed below, and also shown in a map embedded in the background section.\n\nRussia must have control of **at least two** of the following locations:\n\n* Mikolaiv: Admiralska St, 20, Mykolaiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine, 54000\n* Zaporizhzhia: Sobornyi Ave, 206, Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhia Oblast\n* Kharkiv: Konstytutsii Square, 7, Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, 61000\n* Odesa: Dums'ka Square, 1, Odesa, Odesa Oblast, Ukraine, 65000\n* Lozova: Lozova City Council, Vulytsya Yaroslava Mudroho, Lozova, Kharkivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 64600\n* Sumy: Sumy City Council, Nezalezhnosti Square, 2, Sumy, Sums'ka oblast, Ukraine, 40000\n* Chernihiv: Chernihiv City Council, Mahistrats'ka St, 7, Chernihiv, Chernihivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 14000\n\nRussia must also have control of **all** of the following locations:\n\n* Simferopol - Ulitsa Karla Marksa, 18, Simferopol\n* Nova Kakhovka - Горсовет, Prospekt Dniprovsʹkyy, 23, Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, Ukraine, 74900\n* Svatove - Avtoshlyakh R 66, Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, 92600\n* Donetsk - Artema St, 98, Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 83000\n* Tokmak - Central St, 45, Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 71700", "fine_print": "* If the building itself no longer exists, resolution will be based on the location of the building. If the ISW map is no longer available on the resolution date, then an equivalent resource may be selected by Metaculus.", "post_id": 19724, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763333078.040165, "end_time": 1763703291.467, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763333078.040165, "end_time": 1763703291.467, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.993, 0.007 ], "means": [ 0.01288452435340721 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.81348481771401, 3.7038962944619325, 1.423523046184484, 1.024198718143396, 1.0155141316536587, 0.20130744922106744, 0.0, 0.1200379958075415, 0.02549858157588941, 0.2390473384080099, 0.11942695331779107, 0.0016495806443394484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021358479068187765, 0.0014755208378649702, 0.02552362291865424, 0.0, 0.005805836553457768, 0.0012497772419926385, 0.0404318479063413, 0.0038245446286032047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006618547477705139, 0.021403666531874338, 0.00010633760576014552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004530981350361459, 0.0, 0.00016090796494774804, 0.0, 0.010243343466511347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002890555814196455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00036601963165768176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022111209728182583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289584.089476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 322, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289584.089476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 322, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8965430026394761, 0.10345699736052398 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1342, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-has-been-slow-but-western-support-remains-strong--even-with-new-war-in-middle-east-215707295.html), and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1gg5PBOaPGAuOjX5kCafOgNIBMWW-ZdI&ehbc=2E312F\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 19700, "title": "Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?", "short_title": "Additional Russian IPO in 2023?", "url_title": "Additional Russian IPO in 2023?", "slug": "additional-russian-ipo-in-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-29T16:36:52.086886Z", "published_at": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.222969Z", 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"tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19700, "title": "Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-10-29T16:36:52.086886Z", "open_time": "2023-11-02T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-05T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-05T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-21T15:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-21T15:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-21T15:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "An [initial public offering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering) (IPO) is the process by which a privately-held company goes public by offering a portion of its shares to public investors for the first time. So far in 2023, five Russian companies have IPO-ed on the [MICEX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Exchange) trading floor [according to PREQVECA.ru](http://preqveca.ru/en/placements/?sf%5Bipo_t%5D=&sf%5Bipo%5D=0&sf%5Bstatus%5D=0&sf%5Bcountr%5D=2&sf%5Bspec%5D=0&sf%5Blisting%5D=9&sf%5Bpsf%5D=&sf%5Bpst%5D=&sf%5Bpt%5D=1&sf%5Bind%5D=0&sf%5Bpef%5D=01.01.2023&sf%5Bpet%5D=31.12.2023#search_r):\n\n| IPO / SPO Name | Industry | Trading Floor | Placement Volume (mln. USD) | End of Placement |\n|-------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|---------------|-----------------------------|------------------|\n| Henderson | Retail and Consumer Sector, Textiles and Clothing | MICEX | Not Provided | 02.11.2023 |\n| Astra Linux | Technologies, Telecommunications and Media | MICEX | 36 | 13.10.2023 |\n| SmartTechGroup | Financial Services | MICEX | 11 | 03.07.2023 |\n| Genetico | Biotechnologies and Life Sciences, Healthcare | MICEX | 2 | 25.04.2023 |\n| Kaluga's distillery Kristall | Food processing | MICEX | | 31.12.2023 |", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is at least one additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023, based on [data according to PREQVECA.ru]( http://preqveca.ru/en/placements/?sf%5Bipo_t%5D=&sf%5Bipo%5D=0&sf%5Bstatus%5D=0&sf%5Bcountr%5D=2&sf%5Bspec%5D=0&sf%5Blisting%5D=9&sf%5Bpsf%5D=&sf%5Bpst%5D=&sf%5Bpt%5D=1&sf%5Bind%5D=0&sf%5Bpef%5D=01.01.2023&sf%5Bpet%5D=31.12.2023#search_r) As of November 1, 2023, there have been five Russian IPOs in 2023, so this question asks whether there will be six or more in 2023.\n\nThe search criteria are:\n\n* Placement type: IPO\n* Trading floor: MICEX\n* Country of operation: Russia\n* End of Placement:\n * from: January 1, 2023\n * to: December 31, 2023\n* All other: Leave empty \n\nFor an IPO to count for this question, it has to have an ‘End of placement’ date between January 1, 2023, and December 31, 2023, inclusive. If **6 or more companies meet this criterion, this question resolves as Yes**.", "fine_print": "Placement volume does not impact resolution of this question.", "post_id": 19700, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700578839.605539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700578839.605539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8037450603535072 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012852091876617526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9054469735703223, 0.0, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.01542797475028349, 0.03355904935421398, 0.011010747534174546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2076665890513558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2513282146981126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9856953537953402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9673830857829435, 0.08915094763644647, 0.1494220410952148, 0.04978706836786394, 0.5089300594347316, 0.9501504192541721, 0.0, 0.6785419597854283, 0.04384841732294667, 0.0, 0.11034223931239878, 0.0, 0.26102326165716355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11976849036492711, 0.4660889664235593, 0.07982935021231018, 0.16466410993500383, 2.402733366234807 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.014561049584144, "coverage": 0.322878310853012, "baseline_score": 14.59806770314259, "spot_peer_score": 47.949991248953374, "peer_archived_score": 8.014561049584144, "baseline_archived_score": 14.59806770314259, "spot_peer_archived_score": 47.949991248953374 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700578839.651362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700578839.651362, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2200622291370894, 0.7799377708629106 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 201, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "An [initial public offering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering) (IPO) is the process by which a privately-held company goes public by offering a portion of its shares to public investors for the first time. So far in 2023, five Russian companies have IPO-ed on the [MICEX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Exchange) trading floor [according to PREQVECA.ru](http://preqveca.ru/en/placements/?sf%5Bipo_t%5D=&sf%5Bipo%5D=0&sf%5Bstatus%5D=0&sf%5Bcountr%5D=2&sf%5Bspec%5D=0&sf%5Blisting%5D=9&sf%5Bpsf%5D=&sf%5Bpst%5D=&sf%5Bpt%5D=1&sf%5Bind%5D=0&sf%5Bpef%5D=01.01.2023&sf%5Bpet%5D=31.12.2023#search_r):\n\n| IPO / SPO Name | Industry | Trading Floor | Placement Volume (mln. USD) | End of Placement |\n|-------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|---------------|-----------------------------|------------------|\n| Henderson | Retail and Consumer Sector, Textiles and Clothing | MICEX | Not Provided | 02.11.2023 |\n| Astra Linux | Technologies, Telecommunications and Media | MICEX | 36 | 13.10.2023 |\n| SmartTechGroup | Financial Services | MICEX | 11 | 03.07.2023 |\n| Genetico | Biotechnologies and Life Sciences, Healthcare | MICEX | 2 | 25.04.2023 |\n| Kaluga's distillery Kristall | Food processing | MICEX | | 31.12.2023 |" }, { "id": 19691, "title": "Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?", "short_title": "Non-Human Intelligence on Earth", "url_title": "Non-Human Intelligence on Earth", "slug": "non-human-intelligence-on-earth", "author_id": 153343, "author_username": "stranger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-27T21:40:44.652116Z", "published_at": "2023-11-04T21:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T17:01:34.211993Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-04T21:57:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-04T21:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19691, "title": "Will there be scientifically accepted evidence of the presence of a non-human intelligence (NHI) on Earth by 2030?", "created_at": "2023-10-27T21:40:44.652116Z", "open_time": "2023-11-04T21:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-07T21:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-07T21:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 2017 there has been news of the US government investigating UFOs/UAPs, recovering crashed vehicles, and recovering alien bodies. The US may soon pass a “UAP Disclosure Act” that would exercise eminent domain of any technology recovered from \"biologics\" or “non-human intelligence.” This was a notable change of terminology from “extraterrestrial” to allow for beings that originate or currently reside on Earth. [1]( https://www.npr.org/2023/07/27/1190390376/ufo-hearing-non-human-biologics-uaps)\n\nThere is additionally more evidence being found in the archaeological record that ancient ancestors of homo sapiens may have built tools and shelters. [2](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66846772)\n\nGiven the background of these recent events, what is the probability that evidence will be presented and accepted for the existence of a non-human intelligence on Earth at the present or sometime in the past?", "resolution_criteria": "* For the context of this question, Non-Human Intelligence (NHI) means any life forms that demonstrate intelligence and excludes any life forms created by humans (Homo sapiens), including any AI systems created by humans or by AIs that derive from humans. Human-derivative AI intelligences are not the focus of this question. \n* Intelligence here is defined by the ability to build technology at least to the level of metallurgy.\n* Evidence for existence can include the recovery of NHI technology or biological material (bodies) that are indisputably non-human and intelligent\n* Evidence for presence on Earth means the technology or body was found within Earth’s atmosphere (right now or anytime in the past).\n* Evidence is considered scientifically accepted if it is published in multiple peer-reviewed journals, or if multiple reputable sources unequivocally report the discovery of NHI.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19691, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761748252.054569, "end_time": 1768541275.274104, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761748252.054569, "end_time": 1768541275.274104, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0050020173559767594 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.392247817874379, 1.8268413736732398, 0.29345347581623216, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288048.735136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288048.735136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988779333608098, 0.0011220666391902577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 153, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 2017 there has been news of the US government investigating UFOs/UAPs, recovering crashed vehicles, and recovering alien bodies. The US may soon pass a “UAP Disclosure Act” that would exercise eminent domain of any technology recovered from \"biologics\" or “non-human intelligence.” This was a notable change of terminology from “extraterrestrial” to allow for beings that originate or currently reside on Earth. [1]( https://www.npr.org/2023/07/27/1190390376/ufo-hearing-non-human-biologics-uaps)\n\nThere is additionally more evidence being found in the archaeological record that ancient ancestors of homo sapiens may have built tools and shelters. [2](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-66846772)\n\nGiven the background of these recent events, what is the probability that evidence will be presented and accepted for the existence of a non-human intelligence on Earth at the present or sometime in the past?" }, { "id": 19593, "title": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?", "short_title": "Johnson Speaker until 2024?", "url_title": "Johnson Speaker until 2024?", "slug": "johnson-speaker-until-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-26T15:07:46.578302Z", "published_at": "2023-11-01T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.369498Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-01T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:35:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-01T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19593, "title": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-26T15:07:46.578302Z", "open_time": "2023-11-01T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-04T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-04T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mike Johnson has been elected the [Speaker of the House of Representatives](https://www.house.gov/feature-stories/2023-10-25-new-speaker-of-the-house), securing 220 votes, amid a tumultuous period marked by intra-Republican discord. He is the fourth Republican to be nominated for the role since Kevin McCarthy's removal on [October 3](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/matt-gaetz-kevin-mccarthy-house-speakership-10-03-23/index.html). Johnson's victory symbolizes a win for the conservative, Trump-aligned faction within the Republican Party. In his address, he outlined border security, inflation, and Middle East conflict as key priorities and pledged his first bill in support of Israel. The election also underlines looming challenges including an impending [November 17 deadline](https://research.umn.edu/news/potential-federal-shutdown) to agree on government funding to avoid a shutdown. Johnson, known for his conservative stances on various policy issues, has raised [concerns among some Democrats, especially with respect to his challenging the 2020 election results](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67220358), underlining the political divisions and challenges ahead in finding bipartisan solutions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mike Johnson remains the Speaker of the US House of Representatives continuously until the end of 2023. This question will resolve as **No** if Mike Johnson ceases to be Speaker of the House for any reason (including but not limited to resignation, retirement, election loss, loss of majority party status, vote of no confidence, expulsion, impeachment and conviction, disqualification, death, or incapacity) in 2023. 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He is the fourth Republican to be nominated for the role since Kevin McCarthy's removal on [October 3](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/matt-gaetz-kevin-mccarthy-house-speakership-10-03-23/index.html). Johnson's victory symbolizes a win for the conservative, Trump-aligned faction within the Republican Party. In his address, he outlined border security, inflation, and Middle East conflict as key priorities and pledged his first bill in support of Israel. The election also underlines looming challenges including an impending [November 17 deadline](https://research.umn.edu/news/potential-federal-shutdown) to agree on government funding to avoid a shutdown. Johnson, known for his conservative stances on various policy issues, has raised [concerns among some Democrats, especially with respect to his challenging the 2020 election results](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67220358), underlining the political divisions and challenges ahead in finding bipartisan solutions." }, { "id": 19592, "title": "Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?", "short_title": "Another Diplomat Expelled from India by 2024?", "url_title": "Another Diplomat Expelled from India by 2024?", "slug": "another-diplomat-expelled-from-india-by-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-26T05:08:04.112061Z", "published_at": "2023-10-27T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.437139Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-27T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-27T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19592, "title": "Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-26T05:08:04.112061Z", "open_time": "2023-10-27T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-02T22:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Canada and India have been in an [ongoing dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Canada%E2%80%93India_diplomatic_row) following Canada's public [allegation in September of 2023 that India was responsible for the killing of a Canadian citizen](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-indian-government-nijjar-1.6970498). [Hardeep Singh Nijjar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardeep_Singh_Nijjar) was a leader in the movement for an [independent Sikh state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalistan_movement) to be established in the Punjab region of India. He was killed in Canada on June 18, 2023.\n\nCanada's statement led to escalating diplomatic tensions between the two countries, including India's [expulsion of a top Canadian diplomat](https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-sikh-diplomat-trudeau-modi-3c5572d9027769ea6adbd047ec6f462a) and a [temporary suspension of Indian visas](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/21/india/india-canada-travel-advisory-assassination-row-intl-hnk/index.html) to Canadian nationals in the days after the accusation, as well as an [ultimatum issued October 3 by India](https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-diplomats-090f136eebed1dd50c9a199e40360826) for Canada to remove 41 of its diplomats from India, which [Canada complied with by recalling the diplomats](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-recalls-41-of-its-diplomats-from-india/) on October 19.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 25, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that India has requested that at least one additional Canadian diplomat be recalled.", "fine_print": "* The diplomat need not actually be withdrawn or recalled from India, only a statement from India requesting that Canada recall one or more of its diplomats or expelling one or more Canadian diplomats is required.", "post_id": 19592, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056946.479849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056946.479849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07264427828822487 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.078441765660596, 5.563412945357211, 0.12555772682322433, 0.1569001714733002, 0.018377954541473906, 0.06264478937563904, 0.03161939734067051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0259121114349368, 0.03515433298854057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005290171900992922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012208548944264495, 0.0, 0.001511304389081846, 0.003597028756780682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0451623990336032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3429179627815088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017016592926998534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8939421666095336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.410594896389215, "coverage": 0.9999610905283094, "baseline_score": 88.06804522264507, "spot_peer_score": -1.9927052445378088, "peer_archived_score": 9.410594896389215, "baseline_archived_score": 88.06804522264507, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.9927052445378088 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056946.513067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056946.513067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 483, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Canada and India have been in an [ongoing dispute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Canada%E2%80%93India_diplomatic_row) following Canada's public [allegation in September of 2023 that India was responsible for the killing of a Canadian citizen](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-indian-government-nijjar-1.6970498). [Hardeep Singh Nijjar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardeep_Singh_Nijjar) was a leader in the movement for an [independent Sikh state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalistan_movement) to be established in the Punjab region of India. He was killed in Canada on June 18, 2023.\n\nCanada's statement led to escalating diplomatic tensions between the two countries, including India's [expulsion of a top Canadian diplomat](https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-sikh-diplomat-trudeau-modi-3c5572d9027769ea6adbd047ec6f462a) and a [temporary suspension of Indian visas](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/21/india/india-canada-travel-advisory-assassination-row-intl-hnk/index.html) to Canadian nationals in the days after the accusation, as well as an [ultimatum issued October 3 by India](https://apnews.com/article/canada-india-diplomats-090f136eebed1dd50c9a199e40360826) for Canada to remove 41 of its diplomats from India, which [Canada complied with by recalling the diplomats](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/canada-recalls-41-of-its-diplomats-from-india/) on October 19." }, { "id": 19590, "title": "Will New Delhi experience a \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?", "short_title": "New Delhi Air Quality End of October 2023?", "url_title": "New Delhi Air Quality End of October 2023?", "slug": "new-delhi-air-quality-end-of-october-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-26T03:47:44.715294Z", "published_at": "2023-10-27T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.577264Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-27T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T23:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-06T23:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-27T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to an [article published by the BBC on October 24, 2023](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67166585):\n\n>The air quality in India's capital Delhi has fallen to poor levels and is expected to deteriorate further in the coming days, officials have said.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Delhi is one of the world's most polluted cities through the year.\n>\n>But its air turns especially toxic in winter due to various factors, including burning of crop remains by farmers, low wind speeds and bursting of firecrackers during festivals.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Environment Minister Gopal Rai said that the second phase of a Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) has been implemented to combat the effect of increased pollution.\n>\n>As part of the strategy, all public transport services, including the Delhi metro and electric bus services, have been instructed to increase their frequency to curb vehicle emissions in the city.\n\nAn overview of the GRAP is [available here](https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/explained-what-is-grap-and-how-does-it-combat-air-pollution-in-delhi-ncr-123102500329_1.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the air quality index (AQI) in the Indian city of New Delhi reaches a level of \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse for at least four of the seven days from October 29 to November 4, inclusive, according to [AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/#India$New_Delhi).", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve according to the AQI values listed in the \"historical\" tab of the AirNow page for New Delhi. A day will be considered to have reached \"Very Unhealthy\" if at least one hour on that date is listed in the historical data as \"Very Unhealthy\" or worse (AQI value of 201 or higher).\n* The question will resolve according to the historical data shown on or after November 6, 2023, when first accessed by Metaculus.\n* The YTD values will take precedence over those shown in the MTD values in the event that they differ, and both files may be used to resolve the question.", "post_id": 19590, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699047805.855625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699047805.855625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9537063752255794 ], "histogram": [ 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"metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699047805.904902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699047805.904902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.002617364366537367, 0.9973826356334626 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 220, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to an [article published by the BBC on October 24, 2023](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67166585):\n\n>The air quality in India's capital Delhi has fallen to poor levels and is expected to deteriorate further in the coming days, officials have said.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Delhi is one of the world's most polluted cities through the year.\n>\n>But its air turns especially toxic in winter due to various factors, including burning of crop remains by farmers, low wind speeds and bursting of firecrackers during festivals.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Environment Minister Gopal Rai said that the second phase of a Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP) has been implemented to combat the effect of increased pollution.\n>\n>As part of the strategy, all public transport services, including the Delhi metro and electric bus services, have been instructed to increase their frequency to curb vehicle emissions in the city.\n\nAn overview of the GRAP is [available here](https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/explained-what-is-grap-and-how-does-it-combat-air-pollution-in-delhi-ncr-123102500329_1.html)." }, { "id": 19554, "title": "Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?", "short_title": "Israel using nuclear weapons", "url_title": "Israel using nuclear weapons", "slug": "israel-using-nuclear-weapons", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-25T00:35:10.681687Z", "published_at": "2023-10-26T02:53:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.222160Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-26T02:53:00Z", "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-07T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-07T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T11:25:45Z", "open_time": "2023-10-26T02:53:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 402, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", 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"emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19554, "title": "Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-25T00:35:10.681687Z", "open_time": "2023-10-26T02:53:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-29T02:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-29T02:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T11:25:45Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-08T11:26:41.706892Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-07T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-07T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, Palestinian militants led by Hamas launched a [surprise offensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) against Israeli forces surrounding the Gaza strip, occupying considerable territory inside internationally-recognized Israeli borders. Israeli counterattacks in the early days of the war expelled the Palestinian fighters from most of the territory they captured. However, Israeli leadership has insisted on launching a ground offensive into the Gaza strip in order to fully eliminate Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups operating in the territory. \n\nAs of October 24, 2023, Israel's ground offensive has been [delayed](https://news.sky.com/story/israeli-diplomat-explains-gaza-ground-offensive-delay-is-no-bad-thing-to-avoid-hamass-deadly-trap-12991638#:~:text=Hamas%20took%20more%20than%20220,rest%20are%20still%20being%20held.) multiple times. Israeli officials have argued that the country's armed forces required additional time to plan rescues of hostages, retrain troops, gain intelligence on Palestinian military operations/defense plans, and conduct artillery and airstrike preparation. Nonetheless, this has raised questions regarding whether or not Israel is capable of capturing the Gaza strip using conventional means with acceptable losses. While Israel officially denies having nuclear weapons, it is [widely believed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) to possess them, given information leaks and statements by Israeli officials. Moreover, Israeli officials have [suggested](https://www.newsweek.com/israeli-official-calls-doomsday-nuclear-missile-option-1833585) that the country could use nuclear weapons against Hamas if necessary, or if it is attacked by external actors such as Hezbollah or Iran.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that Israel has used nuclear weapons as an act of war before 12:00 AM on October 7, 2024. Any Israeli nuclear detonation occurring within territory *de facto* controlled by another state or group will resolve this question as Yes, unless that other nation unambiguously states that such a detonation was done with its government's consent. Nuclear detonations done as tests or accidents will not resolve the question as Yes, as well as those done in territory not *de facto* controlled by any group, such as international waters. A nuclear detonation occurring inside territory *de facto* controlled by Israel will resolve this question as Yes if at least one casualty (death or injury) occurs as a direct result of this detonation outside of this territory within a nation or area which unambiguously condemns Israel's actions within 30 days of this detonation occurring. If this does not occur by the resolution date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728242545.575088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728242545.575088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.004322573337828448 ], "histogram": [ [ 27.70360779240532, 10.186719159563024, 0.43418627803210497, 0.013883850781651535, 0.02948501164050047, 0.07764950265115146, 0.0, 0.017690070548547814, 0.011180451028138657, 0.0, 0.0801842850317408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00951264476586104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03785361844731227, 0.0, 6.679945908863184e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.07053443441449e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "spot_peer_score": 3.0129117441587936, "baseline_score": 98.89760874743675, "peer_score": 1.3398754099873071, "coverage": 0.9998727127917377, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998727127917377, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.0129117441587936, "baseline_archived_score": 98.89760874743675, "peer_archived_score": 1.3398754099873071, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728242545.637781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 403, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728242545.637781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 403, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 803, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, Palestinian militants led by Hamas launched a [surprise offensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) against Israeli forces surrounding the Gaza strip, occupying considerable territory inside internationally-recognized Israeli borders. Israeli counterattacks in the early days of the war expelled the Palestinian fighters from most of the territory they captured. However, Israeli leadership has insisted on launching a ground offensive into the Gaza strip in order to fully eliminate Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups operating in the territory. \n\nAs of October 24, 2023, Israel's ground offensive has been [delayed](https://news.sky.com/story/israeli-diplomat-explains-gaza-ground-offensive-delay-is-no-bad-thing-to-avoid-hamass-deadly-trap-12991638#:~:text=Hamas%20took%20more%20than%20220,rest%20are%20still%20being%20held.) multiple times. Israeli officials have argued that the country's armed forces required additional time to plan rescues of hostages, retrain troops, gain intelligence on Palestinian military operations/defense plans, and conduct artillery and airstrike preparation. Nonetheless, this has raised questions regarding whether or not Israel is capable of capturing the Gaza strip using conventional means with acceptable losses. While Israel officially denies having nuclear weapons, it is [widely believed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) to possess them, given information leaks and statements by Israeli officials. Moreover, Israeli officials have [suggested](https://www.newsweek.com/israeli-official-calls-doomsday-nuclear-missile-option-1833585) that the country could use nuclear weapons against Hamas if necessary, or if it is attacked by external actors such as Hezbollah or Iran." }, { "id": 19525, "title": "Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?", "short_title": "2023 Liberian Election", "url_title": "2023 Liberian Election", "slug": "2023-liberian-election", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-22T09:58:19.062589Z", "published_at": "2023-10-25T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.367172Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-25T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-17T21:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-17T21:23:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-25T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19525, "title": "Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?", "created_at": "2023-10-22T09:58:19.062589Z", "open_time": "2023-10-25T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-26T16:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-26T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-17T21:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-17T21:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-17T21:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-05T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2023 Liberian election has led to a closely contested race between the incumbent President George Weah and opposition leader Joseph Boakai. The first round of the election, held on 10th October 2023, did not result in a clear winner as neither candidate secured the more than 50% of the votes required to avoid a runoff, with [99.93% of votes counted]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Liberian_general_election) \n\nGeorge Weah, the incumbent president, running with Jewel Taylor for the [Coalition for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_for_Democratic_Change#:~:text=The%20Coalition%20for%20Democratic%20Change,a%20political%20alliance%20in%20Liberia.), secured 803,674 votes (43.84%) in the 2023 Liberian general election's first round. Joseph Boakai, former vice president, alongside running mate Jeremiah Koung from the [Unity Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unity_Party_(Liberia)), garnered 796,313 votes (43.44%). As the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/1958a8c3-0425-42e2-aa8b-d8521261addf) outlines: \n\n> Weah had positioned himself as the plucky outsider who could shake things up in contrast to Boakai, an establishment figure, who had been vice-president for more than a decade and was a government minister in the 1980s.\n\n> Boakai is running on an anti-Weah platform and campaigning to revive the economy by investing in infrastructure and agriculture projects. But the 78-year-old is dogged by questions over his health and has been dubbed “Sleepy Joe” after falling asleep at events during his time as vice-president.\n\nLiberia is thus headed for a [run-off election](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/liberia-presidential-election-still-headed-second-round-2023-10-17/#:~:text=Following%20the%20Oct,the%20West%20African%20nation). This election has to be held [within 15 days of finalising the vote count for the first election](https://www.africanews.com/2023/10/19/liberia-close-results-towards-a-second-round-of-the-presidential-election//), making [November 7](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67142550) a likely date for the election.\n\nThe [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/1958a8c3-0425-42e2-aa8b-d8521261addf) reports:\n\n> A fresh run-off between the two men would mark a repeat of the 2017 elections. That time, Weah won the second round with 61.54 per cent of the vote. \n\n> However, analysts believe the results of this year’s are likely to be closer. “There’s an opportunity for both candidates to win,” said Alex Vines, head of the Africa programme at UK think-tank Chatham House.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if George Weah is elected as president of Liberia in 2023 according to statements from the [National Elections Commission](https://www.necliberia.org/) (NEC).", "fine_print": "* The question may resolve early based on media calls/reports, but final resolution will be determined according to official results released by the NEC, and the question may be re-resolved if the official results differ from the initial calls.\n* If the expected run-off election has to be re-run in 2024 or the election is otherwise delayed into 2024, this question will be **annulled**. The question will also be **annulled** if the NEC does not officially declare a winner before 2024.\n* If George Weah drops out or does not participate in the run-off election for whatever reason, but the election happens in 2023 and/or a new president is announced by the NEC, this question resolves as **No**.", "post_id": 19525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699185179.054318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699185179.054318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.600746278364095 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3850944711905501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7033457699064573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04869876109694747, 0.6541259978097677, 0.5644485981864586, 0.0, 0.9765713633172552, 1.3654865500008013, 1.8937453086419147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44961249434629236, 0.9066879566949397, 0.04255302797849524, 0.21997458618206234, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6321412959215627, 1.0034680141059458, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.013841141009878904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8489852170398919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551866365553954 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.338031350667592, "coverage": 0.9995617762362183, "baseline_score": -28.334435568517325, "spot_peer_score": 6.7594208927942, "peer_archived_score": 8.338031350667592, "baseline_archived_score": -28.334435568517325, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.7594208927942 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699185179.091404, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699185179.091404, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4871416833248543, 0.5128583166751457 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2023 Liberian election has led to a closely contested race between the incumbent President George Weah and opposition leader Joseph Boakai. The first round of the election, held on 10th October 2023, did not result in a clear winner as neither candidate secured the more than 50% of the votes required to avoid a runoff, with [99.93% of votes counted]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Liberian_general_election) \n\nGeorge Weah, the incumbent president, running with Jewel Taylor for the [Coalition for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_for_Democratic_Change#:~:text=The%20Coalition%20for%20Democratic%20Change,a%20political%20alliance%20in%20Liberia.), secured 803,674 votes (43.84%) in the 2023 Liberian general election's first round. Joseph Boakai, former vice president, alongside running mate Jeremiah Koung from the [Unity Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unity_Party_(Liberia)), garnered 796,313 votes (43.44%). As the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/1958a8c3-0425-42e2-aa8b-d8521261addf) outlines: \n\n> Weah had positioned himself as the plucky outsider who could shake things up in contrast to Boakai, an establishment figure, who had been vice-president for more than a decade and was a government minister in the 1980s.\n\n> Boakai is running on an anti-Weah platform and campaigning to revive the economy by investing in infrastructure and agriculture projects. But the 78-year-old is dogged by questions over his health and has been dubbed “Sleepy Joe” after falling asleep at events during his time as vice-president.\n\nLiberia is thus headed for a [run-off election](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/liberia-presidential-election-still-headed-second-round-2023-10-17/#:~:text=Following%20the%20Oct,the%20West%20African%20nation). This election has to be held [within 15 days of finalising the vote count for the first election](https://www.africanews.com/2023/10/19/liberia-close-results-towards-a-second-round-of-the-presidential-election//), making [November 7](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67142550) a likely date for the election.\n\nThe [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/1958a8c3-0425-42e2-aa8b-d8521261addf) reports:\n\n> A fresh run-off between the two men would mark a repeat of the 2017 elections. That time, Weah won the second round with 61.54 per cent of the vote. \n\n> However, analysts believe the results of this year’s are likely to be closer. “There’s an opportunity for both candidates to win,” said Alex Vines, head of the Africa programme at UK think-tank Chatham House." }, { "id": 19493, "title": "Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?", "short_title": "Will Labor win Sturt at the next election?", "url_title": "Will Labor win Sturt at the next election?", "slug": "will-labor-win-sturt-at-the-next-election", "author_id": 112352, "author_username": "joel.d", "coauthors": [ { "id": 113018, "username": "Grigfall" }, { "id": 111805, "username": "galen" } ], "created_at": "2023-10-19T22:15:18.361847Z", "published_at": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.320022Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19493, "title": "Will Labor win the seat of Sturt in the next Australian Federal Election?", "created_at": "2023-10-19T22:15:18.361847Z", "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-02T20:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-02T20:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-31T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-07T11:04:29.328180Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-17T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The next Australian Federal Election is expected [between August 2024 and May 2025](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2223/Quick_Guides/WhenIsTheNextElection2022). A typical election is for every seat in the lower house — the House of Representatives — and half the seats in the upper house — the Senate. This question concerns the seat of Sturt, a lower house seat in South Australia.\n\nSturt is one of the most marginal seats currently held by the Liberal Party, with a margin of just 0.5%. The incumbent, James Stevens, is in his second term, having succeeded Christopher Pyne at the 2019 election. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since 1972. The ABC provides an overview [here](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/stur) from the last election. Although Labor has never won the seat, the very small margin suggests that this is nonetheless a possibility.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Australian Electoral Commission](https://www.aec.gov.au/) declares the result of this seat for the ALP candidate in the next Australian Federal Election. The question will resolve in the negative if any other party wins the seat, or other factors mean that nobody wins the seat.", "fine_print": "For this question to resolve as positive the successful candidate must be the ALP candidate when the election result is announced. If they leave or are disendorsed then that would not meet the criteria of this question.", "post_id": 19493, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746265191.270229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746265191.270229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2460228305389018 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 1.032446907522022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.16200818773240888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -95.06729664186363, "peer_score": 1.1922231062706177, "coverage": 0.9722523603344086, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998896996590215, "spot_peer_score": -5.666434265350158, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -95.06729664186363, "peer_archived_score": 1.1922231062706177, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.666434265350158, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287889.505216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287889.505216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8942326440122146, 0.10576735598778546 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The next Australian Federal Election is expected [between August 2024 and May 2025](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp2223/Quick_Guides/WhenIsTheNextElection2022). A typical election is for every seat in the lower house — the House of Representatives — and half the seats in the upper house — the Senate. This question concerns the seat of Sturt, a lower house seat in South Australia.\n\nSturt is one of the most marginal seats currently held by the Liberal Party, with a margin of just 0.5%. The incumbent, James Stevens, is in his second term, having succeeded Christopher Pyne at the 2019 election. The seat has been held by the Liberal party since 1972. The ABC provides an overview [here](https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/guide/stur) from the last election. Although Labor has never won the seat, the very small margin suggests that this is nonetheless a possibility." }, { "id": 19492, "title": "Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Israel Offensive in Gaza by November 1, 2023?", "url_title": "Israel Offensive in Gaza by November 1, 2023?", "slug": "israel-offensive-in-gaza-by-november-1-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-19T15:16:56.843088Z", "published_at": "2023-10-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.191181Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 155, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19492, "title": "Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-10-19T15:16:56.843088Z", "open_time": "2023-10-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-21T17:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-21T17:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched an attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), with [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/middleeast/israel-hamas-gaza-war-explained-week-2-mime-intl/index.html) stating that more than 1,400 Israeli civilians were killed. Following the attack [media reports](https://www.npr.org/2023/10/14/1205951163/israel-is-expected-to-launch-a-ground-invasion-of-gaza) have suggested that an Israeli ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. [On October 13, Politico reported:](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/gaza-ground-invasion-israel-00121452):\n\n>Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza is “imminent,” two Israeli officials said Friday, confirming that the much-anticipated operation will happen in the coming hours or days.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>But officials in Jerusalem and the Israel Defense Forces never confirmed that a ground invasion was in the works, even as Israel called up 300,000 reservists and, Friday, ordered the evacuation of 1.1 million people from northern Gaza.\n>\n>The Israeli officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive military plans, said the evacuation order was issued to save as many Palestinian lives as possible ahead of the ground operation. The short window of time for that evacuation was necessary so that Hamas wouldn’t have much time to prepare, they said.\n\nHowever, on October 17 Israeli Defense Force Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-army-spokesman-says-next-phase-war-may-be-different-expectations-2023-10-17/): \n\n>We are preparing for the next stages of war. We haven't said what they will be. Everybody's talking about the ground offensive. It might be something different.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 1, 2023, at least two of the internationally recognized media sources listed below publish reports that unequivocally state that a large-scale Israeli ground offensive into Gaza has begun. Operations characterized as [raids](https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-launches-first-localized-raids-into-gaza-ahead-of-expected-ground-invasion/) will generally not qualify.\n\n* [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news)\n* [The Economist](https://www.economist.com)\n* [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com)\n* [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com)", "fine_print": "* To meet the threshold for a **Yes** resolution, a report must rely on sourced reporting. Sourced reporting can include government sources quoted on condition of anonymity, but the report must not be an opinion piece. For example:\n - The hypothetical statement \"A high-level official in the US intelligence community stated, on the condition of anonymity, that Israel's ground offensive began on October 25th\" would be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n - The hypothetical statements \"Israel's much-anticipated ground offensive may begin at any moment\" or \"It appears Israel's ground offensive may have begun\" would not be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution.\n* It is possible the actual start date of the ground offensive is before November 1, 2023, and that there is evidence available attesting to such a start date, but that the question resolves **No** because the evidence has not been reported definitively in one of the four listed outlets.\n* A raid, which does not qualify, will generally be considered a brief incursion with a specific goal after which troops will withdraw. Metaculus will defer to the characterization of the listed sources. In the event at least two sources state that a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza has begun but also use terminology such as \"raid\", the question will still resolve as **Yes**. For example, the [2006 Israeli operation in Beit Hanoun](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Israeli_operation_in_Beit_Hanoun) would be considered a raid.\n* If there is ambiguity about whether the criteria have been met, a team of three Metaculus admins will make the final determination.", "post_id": 19492, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698774958.707803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698774958.707803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8203188136558203 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7846671929597855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001344694239029621, 0.0, 0.009570109412940194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030694404722327293, 0.0, 0.0005260621864204161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07603521064965144, 0.0, 0.002629644249808833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0041957068417045815, 0.1098319145094257, 0.0, 0.00038847601894433114, 0.0, 0.05863245561015618, 0.0, 7.584392250925236e-05, 0.0012951734680056344, 0.0003138689720159566, 0.0, 0.0011909179798871234, 0.0015822086484779182, 0.0009071537418261927, 0.0, 0.11495769727945206, 5.431644534959455e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061680577743460134, 0.00019824537733839802, 0.00034960910137161777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.514211149405208, 0.00010256549113310516, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0038139617163448e-05, 0.00022341713940836214, 0.0, 0.06395243314524944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05467829362113934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4674137998021003, 0.21253055835496998, 0.003779956305503564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8836119658644748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17545046510367227, 0.0, 0.8160819465200871, 0.24665151864939197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9919665120890119, 1.268823759465724, 0.8141892897369233, 0.9336108722483322, 0.0, 0.8618866476213656, 3.3023062568882597, 0.0, 0.04424461830516105, 0.13337258153418796, 0.0, 3.165637198053403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6624143957947257, 0.004988393263637754, 4.051997012986629, 0.7302919668797273, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1359501581276428 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.699763761644014, "coverage": 0.9528254045856157, "baseline_score": 20.135767825716847, "spot_peer_score": 16.525283789205734, "peer_archived_score": 9.699763761644014, "baseline_archived_score": 20.135767825716847, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.525283789205734 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698739611.233497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698739611.233497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30289291940005203, 0.697107080599948 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 661, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched an attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), with [reports](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/16/middleeast/israel-hamas-gaza-war-explained-week-2-mime-intl/index.html) stating that more than 1,400 Israeli civilians were killed. Following the attack [media reports](https://www.npr.org/2023/10/14/1205951163/israel-is-expected-to-launch-a-ground-invasion-of-gaza) have suggested that an Israeli ground offensive into Gaza is imminent. [On October 13, Politico reported:](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/13/gaza-ground-invasion-israel-00121452):\n\n>Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza is “imminent,” two Israeli officials said Friday, confirming that the much-anticipated operation will happen in the coming hours or days.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>But officials in Jerusalem and the Israel Defense Forces never confirmed that a ground invasion was in the works, even as Israel called up 300,000 reservists and, Friday, ordered the evacuation of 1.1 million people from northern Gaza.\n>\n>The Israeli officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive military plans, said the evacuation order was issued to save as many Palestinian lives as possible ahead of the ground operation. The short window of time for that evacuation was necessary so that Hamas wouldn’t have much time to prepare, they said.\n\nHowever, on October 17 Israeli Defense Force Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht [told Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-army-spokesman-says-next-phase-war-may-be-different-expectations-2023-10-17/): \n\n>We are preparing for the next stages of war. We haven't said what they will be. Everybody's talking about the ground offensive. It might be something different." }, { "id": 19467, "title": "Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?", "short_title": "Israel Responsible for Hospital Attack?", "url_title": "Israel Responsible for Hospital Attack?", "slug": "israel-responsible-for-hospital-attack", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-17T20:30:22.016417Z", "published_at": "2023-10-18T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.968616Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-18T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-18T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 196, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19467, "title": "Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-17T20:30:22.016417Z", "open_time": "2023-10-18T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-18T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-18T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On the 17th of October 2023, [multiple](https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/17/at-least-500-killed-in-gaza-city-hospital-blast) [agencies](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-500-victims-israeli-air-strike-hospital-gaza-health-ministry-2023-10-17/) [reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Ahli_Arab_Hospital_explosion) that the Al Ahli Hospital/Gaza City Hospital was rocked by an explosion. The number of fatalities is not clear. Palestinian officials said as many as [471 people were killed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/18/al-ahli-arab-hospital-piecing-together-what-happened-as-israel-insists-militant-rocket-to-blame). \n\nHamas claims that the explosion was caused by an Israeli Defense Force airstrike on the hospital. The IDF disputes this and allege the explosion was [caused by rockets fired by Islamic Jihad](https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1714397390432612795).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if any of the following occurs before January 1, 2024.\n\n1. The Israeli Government, the Israeli Defense Force, or a high elected official or civil servant of Israel acting in an official capacity says the explosion was caused by Israeli military action;\n\n2. [Three of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council#:~:text=The%20permanent%20members%20of%20the,Kingdom%2C%20and%20the%20United%20States.) publicly attribute the attack to Israel;\n\n3. Two reports have been published by credible sources, each quoting a separate government source from a [Five Eyes country](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes) which attributes the attack to Israel. To meet the threshold, a given report must rely on a government source or document; independent investigations will not be sufficient for the purposes of this question. The reports must, together, provide at least two statements or documents that independently attribute the explosion to Israel.\n\nIf there is ambiguity about any of #1-3, a panel of three Metaculus admins will make the final determination by majority decision.\n\nThe question resolves **No** if the above does not occur before January 1, 2024. It also resolves **No** if any group other than Israel claims responsibility for the attack and that claim is validated by credible sources.", "fine_print": "For #3, the reports may include a document obtained by the media, provided that the veracity of such a document is not subsequently disputed by the applicable government within 3 days of publication.\n\nMetaculus holds a high standard for [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) which we will follow in assessing whether the threshold in #3 has been met:\n\n> A \"credible source\" will be taken to be an online or in-print published story from a journalistic source, or information publicly posted on a the website of an organization by that organization making public information pertaining to that organization, or in another source where the preponderance of evidence suggests that the information is correct and that there is no significant controversy surrounding the information or its correctness. It will generally not include unsourced information found in blogs, Facebook or Twitter postings, or websites of individuals.", "post_id": 19467, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034074.086658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034074.086658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.0758040936778653 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.630398422191238, 6.000975718586611, 0.12969160201906255, 0.06700185901769919, 0.010402226013991208, 0.08346407714725151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005977874951244398, 0.47225943916864277, 0.0, 0.00795403567682975, 0.0, 0.012825123747973684, 1.5779368825407571, 0.0, 0.054504964288947945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043690926741860384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012066708068594254, 0.0, 0.0006319183158210099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.412663432614678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7736537129559455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0651819733646289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003644076243760276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.161051273661052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03439465215614028 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.1559722472425475, "coverage": 0.9999977201323851, "baseline_score": 98.54534211804794, "spot_peer_score": 7.271835940190403, "peer_archived_score": 6.1559722472425475, "baseline_archived_score": 98.54534211804794, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.271835940190403 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034074.131121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034074.131121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 196, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 615, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On the 17th of October 2023, [multiple](https://www.euronews.com/2023/10/17/at-least-500-killed-in-gaza-city-hospital-blast) [agencies](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/least-500-victims-israeli-air-strike-hospital-gaza-health-ministry-2023-10-17/) [reported](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Ahli_Arab_Hospital_explosion) that the Al Ahli Hospital/Gaza City Hospital was rocked by an explosion. The number of fatalities is not clear. Palestinian officials said as many as [471 people were killed](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/18/al-ahli-arab-hospital-piecing-together-what-happened-as-israel-insists-militant-rocket-to-blame). \n\nHamas claims that the explosion was caused by an Israeli Defense Force airstrike on the hospital. The IDF disputes this and allege the explosion was [caused by rockets fired by Islamic Jihad](https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1714397390432612795)." }, { "id": 19453, "title": "Will Israel lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030?", "short_title": "Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights", "url_title": "Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights", "slug": "israels-occupation-of-the-golan-heights", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-17T01:51:26.398434Z", "published_at": "2024-04-22T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T12:27:56.798957Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-22T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-22T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19453, "title": "Will Israel lose control over the Golan Heights before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-10-17T01:51:26.398434Z", "open_time": "2024-04-22T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-28T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-28T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Golan Heights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights) is a 700 square mile territory recognized by the international community as Syrian territory. 500 square miles of it is occupied by Israel. Israel had de facto annexed it in the [Six-Day War of 1967](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War) and imposed its laws on the territory. The occupation is [not recognized ](https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/26751?ln=en) as legal under international law.\n\nAccording to [this article](https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-708422) in the Jerusalem Post discussing a book on the subject, \"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considered a deal with Syria that would have seen Israel give up control of the Golan and have a demilitarized zone established along the Jordan river.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, it is confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/) (for example, New York Times, Washington Post, Reuters, BBC, Associated Press) or an official announcement from Israel, the United Nations or other relevant government authorities, that Israel has lost de facto control over the territory of the Golan Heights that it had previously de facto annexed, or another entity has taken de facto control over the majority of that territory.\n\nAlternatively if the Israeli government officially announces that Israel has stopped administering or governing the region, this will also be sufficient for a positive resolution.\n\nIf neither of these conditions are met before January 1, 2030, this question resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19453, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763274901.823565, "end_time": 1765106077.999899, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763274901.823565, "end_time": 1765106077.999899, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.015004512773883765 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.994215840657308, 1.5384758719642693, 0.160831023763914, 0.3108648595307786, 0.24207219377702496, 0.25683253575203385, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287545.242946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287545.242946, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9930183061420662, 0.006981693857933784 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Golan Heights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights) is a 700 square mile territory recognized by the international community as Syrian territory. 500 square miles of it is occupied by Israel. Israel had de facto annexed it in the [Six-Day War of 1967](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War) and imposed its laws on the territory. The occupation is [not recognized ](https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/26751?ln=en) as legal under international law.\n\nAccording to [this article](https://www.jpost.com/arab-israeli-conflict/article-708422) in the Jerusalem Post discussing a book on the subject, \"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considered a deal with Syria that would have seen Israel give up control of the Golan and have a demilitarized zone established along the Jordan river.\"" }, { "id": 19446, "title": "Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?", "short_title": "Major earthquake in PNW by 2034", "url_title": "Major earthquake in PNW by 2034", "slug": "major-earthquake-in-pnw-by-2034", "author_id": 124496, "author_username": "MontyJ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-17T00:18:07.160434Z", "published_at": "2023-11-03T21:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T00:32:00.660353Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-03T21:48:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-01-01T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-01-13T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-03T21:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19446, "title": "Will there be an 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake in the Pacific Northwest before 2034?", "created_at": "2023-10-17T00:18:07.160434Z", "open_time": "2023-11-03T21:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-06T21:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-06T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-01-13T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-01-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-01-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone)\n>The Cascadia subduction zone is a 960 km (600 mi) fault at a convergent plate boundary, about 112-160 km (70-100 mi) off the Pacific Shore, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It is capable of producing 9.0+ magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis that could reach 30m (100 ft). \n\nMost recently, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone on January 26, 1700, with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.7–9.2. Some geologists have predicted a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9.0 or higher in the next 50 years, and other have stated the risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher in the next 50 years. \n\nSee also Kathryn Schulz' Pulitzer Prize winning piece [The Really Big One](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if the New York Times, Associated Press, Seattle Times, Portland Tribune, Globe and Mail, or Vancouver Sun reports a 8.0 magnitude or greater earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone before January 1, 2034.", "fine_print": "The exact boundaries of the Cascadia subduction zone are unclear; for this question, any earthquake with an epicenter north of Cape Mendocino, California, south of Margaret Bay, British Columbia, east of 150 miles of the Pacific shore, and west of the continental divide will be counted as \"along the Cascadia subduction zone\".", "post_id": 19446, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763499316.697102, "end_time": 1763605222.964508, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2241437137 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763499316.697102, "end_time": 1763605222.964508, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2241437137 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.37556038514597284 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.10829599059260063, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6679030409433047, 0.2685357190168892, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.3190127781780022, 0.4013068821831965, 1.777868639624955, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.14645117361277293, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287958.10772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287958.10772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9358624478913597, 0.06413755210864025 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_subduction_zone)\n>The Cascadia subduction zone is a 960 km (600 mi) fault at a convergent plate boundary, about 112-160 km (70-100 mi) off the Pacific Shore, that stretches from northern Vancouver Island in Canada to Northern California in the United States. It is capable of producing 9.0+ magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis that could reach 30m (100 ft). \n\nMost recently, the 1700 Cascadia earthquake occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone on January 26, 1700, with an estimated moment magnitude of 8.7–9.2. Some geologists have predicted a 10% to 14% probability that the Cascadia Subduction Zone will produce an event of magnitude 9.0 or higher in the next 50 years, and other have stated the risk could be as high as 37% for earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or higher in the next 50 years. \n\nSee also Kathryn Schulz' Pulitzer Prize winning piece [The Really Big One](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one)" }, { "id": 19444, "title": "Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?", "short_title": "US Iran War Before 2025?", "url_title": "US Iran War Before 2025?", "slug": "us-iran-war-before-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-16T16:45:03.543575Z", "published_at": "2023-10-16T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.850340Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-16T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:23:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-16T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 210, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19444, "title": "Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-10-16T16:45:03.543575Z", "open_time": "2023-10-16T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-17T04:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-17T04:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:28:42.007440Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). Some reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.\n\nTensions between the US and Iran have been high in recent years following the [US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#U.S._denies_recertification_and_then_withdraws_(2017%E2%80%93present)) in 2017, the [US assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani), and Iran's [enrichment of uranium](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-enriching-uranium-weapons-grade-nuclear-iaea-rcna72753) to levels approaching those needed to create a nuclear weapon. Some observers [have expressed fears of war](https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/01/are-us-and-iran-really-brink-war) between the two countries.\n\nThe [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/) (UCDP) has been collecting data on organized violence for nearly 40 years. The UCDP tracks and categorizes conflicts and conflict deaths according to a [specific set of definitions](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/). The following sample of conflicts involving the US illustrate some of the different categorizations (note that these categorizations may not necessarily correspond to those specified in the resolution criteria):\n\n* The [2003 Iraq war](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/420) involved Australia, the UK, and the US [as primary parties on one side of the conflict](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/420/1), with Iraq as the primary party on the other side.\n* In the [conflict between Yugoslavia and Kosovo](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/412) the NATO member countries, including the US, [are listed individually in 1999 as secondary warring parties](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/412/1) reflecting NATO's [bombing of Yugoslavia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia).\n* In the [conflict between Iran and Israel](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/14609) the United States is [listed as a secondary warring party](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/14609/1#2020) starting in 2020 when the US assassinated Soleimani and [Iran's retaliatory attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani#IRGC_retaliatory_strike) against US military bases in Iraq.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined the following is true:\n\n* The [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports that both the United States and Iran are primary parties on opposite sides of a conflict resulting in 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\").\n\nOR\n\nBoth of the following are true:\n\n* The US government reports that at least 25 US military personnel have died as a result of military conflict with Iran (the deaths must be caused by conflict with Iranian combatants).\n* The conflict with Iran and the US on opposite sides is reported by the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) to have resulted in 1,000 or more state-based conflict deaths (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\").\n\nThe 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's [methodology](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/methodology/) in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "* There is currently not an existing UCDP conflict page with the United States and Iran as primary parties. The following [UCDP definition](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/) will be used to determine whether the US and Iran are primary parties:\n * **Primary party:** The parties that have formed the [incompatibility](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#incompatibility_2).\n* US deaths may come from explicit statements, or from the US Department of Defense (DoD) [Casualty Status](https://www.defense.gov/casualty.pdf) publications (using hostile deaths and the appropriate military operation, if it can be determined that those deaths are primarily caused by Iranian combatants). Note that the Casualty Status publication can currently be found linked from the DoD’s [publications page](https://www.defense.gov/News/Publications/).\n* If the US or Iran meet this criteria for only one of the years (for example, they are listed as primary parties for 2023 but not 2024, and there is a sum total of 1,000 battle-related deaths in the conflict across 2023 and 2024) then this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* Important note: there can be multiple primary parties on one side of a conflict.\n* If UCDP does not report data for 2023 or 2024 **and** credible sources have reported conflict involving the United States and Iran that in the judgment of Metaculus clearly warrants a relevant conflict page under UCDP's definitions, the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 19444, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671471.455479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 208, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671471.455479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 208, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.03425872141240401 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.09855704533446, 4.409353097159983, 1.5579361017260638, 0.14692246157700592, 0.4572428978030796, 1.7909370263446482, 0.4708385760100344, 0.07886160293869379, 0.18145788711792155, 0.044783916075153946, 0.634115790920569, 0.004177955813667912, 0.0, 0.005222048995083648, 0.02459386521473536, 0.15218376562053937, 0.011966768509362636, 0.0, 0.0035272360109795415, 0.0, 0.09710436827852624, 0.0, 0.012007724813355864, 0.0, 0.0014326960962141619, 0.21087633562440466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004808885022752904, 0.0, 0.005264408950473785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013039013974224507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37964753184568567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000280985609002124, 0.0, 0.2378758723333089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021992915155671903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.596583651309554e-05, 7.313338324697127e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.936597292991513e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012605105906333615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3269099899048057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004142853703872297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005174744006170792 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.32456777325402, "peer_score": 13.772468493844267, "coverage": 0.9998445826284708, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998445826284708, "spot_peer_score": 0.4678959059216947, "spot_baseline_score": 68.70606883398922, "baseline_archived_score": 91.32456777325402, "peer_archived_score": 13.772468493844267, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.4678959059216947, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 68.70606883398922 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289793.867741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289793.867741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 195, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9964988529885892, 0.0035011470114107873 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 625, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). Some reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.\n\nTensions between the US and Iran have been high in recent years following the [US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action#U.S._denies_recertification_and_then_withdraws_(2017%E2%80%93present)) in 2017, the [US assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani), and Iran's [enrichment of uranium](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-enriching-uranium-weapons-grade-nuclear-iaea-rcna72753) to levels approaching those needed to create a nuclear weapon. Some observers [have expressed fears of war](https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/01/are-us-and-iran-really-brink-war) between the two countries.\n\nThe [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/) (UCDP) has been collecting data on organized violence for nearly 40 years. The UCDP tracks and categorizes conflicts and conflict deaths according to a [specific set of definitions](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/). The following sample of conflicts involving the US illustrate some of the different categorizations (note that these categorizations may not necessarily correspond to those specified in the resolution criteria):\n\n* The [2003 Iraq war](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/420) involved Australia, the UK, and the US [as primary parties on one side of the conflict](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/420/1), with Iraq as the primary party on the other side.\n* In the [conflict between Yugoslavia and Kosovo](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/412) the NATO member countries, including the US, [are listed individually in 1999 as secondary warring parties](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/412/1) reflecting NATO's [bombing of Yugoslavia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_bombing_of_Yugoslavia).\n* In the [conflict between Iran and Israel](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/14609) the United States is [listed as a secondary warring party](https://ucdp.uu.se/additionalinfo/14609/1#2020) starting in 2020 when the US assassinated Soleimani and [Iran's retaliatory attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani#IRGC_retaliatory_strike) against US military bases in Iraq." }, { "id": 19442, "title": "Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?", "short_title": "Peter Bone Suspension in 2023?", "url_title": "Peter Bone Suspension in 2023?", "slug": "peter-bone-suspension-in-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-16T12:03:54.880429Z", "published_at": "2023-10-19T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.796903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-19T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-19T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19442, "title": "Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?", "created_at": "2023-10-16T12:03:54.880429Z", "open_time": "2023-10-19T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-22T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-22T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Peter Bone, a British Conservative Party politician, served as Deputy Leader of the House of Commons in 2022 and has been representing Wellingborough as an MP since 2005. On 16 October 2023, he was recommended for suspension from the House of Commons by the [Independent Expert Panel](https://rb.gy/ddpkb) for multiple acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct against a staff member in 2012 and 2013. For the full report, see [here](https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/mps-lords--offices/standards-and-financial-interests/independent-expert-panel/hc-1904---the-conduct-of-mr-peter-bone-mp.pdf). \n\nThe recommendation of the panel is a suspension of 6 weeks: \n\n> This is a serious case of misconduct. […] The bullying involved violence, shouting and swearing, mocking, belittling and humiliating behaviour, and ostracism. […]\n\n> This wilful pattern of bullying also included an unwanted incident of sexual misconduct, when the complainant was trapped in a room with the respondent in a hotel in Madrid, […]. This was a deliberate and conscious abuse of power using a sexual mechanism: indecent exposure.\n\nThis suspension, if approved, will trigger the Recall of MPs Act 2015, initiating a recall petition in Bone's constituency which, if signed by 10% of the electorate within six weeks, will lead to a by-election due to the seat being declared vacant.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes**, if Peter Bone MP is suspended from Parliament for any reason before January 1, 2024, as reported by credible sources.", "fine_print": "* A suspension for any length of time is sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.\n* Removal from a party or other duties does not qualify, only being suspended as a MP from the House of Commons is sufficient.\n* If Peter Bone resigns from the House of Commons before he is suspended this question will resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 19442, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698256285.540661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7944977086401068 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698256285.540661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7944977086401068 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8590656600756699 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016810815496895358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014505757420011789, 0.0, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1744025108627094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32034173754887335, 0.05144413896398135, 0.0, 0.04606515460131248, 0.0, 0.06367247509170942, 0.16442976034727774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2936757196039515, 0.43198306302127876, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.0, 0.48263618116055984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41551266136447684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7126735024003407, 0.0, 0.06902058982287625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12585700968552796, 0.3546641551680529, 0.0, 0.2712168925010875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9180534657497312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7635897992428782, 0.0, 1.2817837613587226, 0.0, 0.6647089477243179, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0765292801747592, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6235958674839122, 3.2471701356801224 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.2902563003237597, "coverage": 0.08441258647222366, "baseline_score": 2.6427556457949826, "spot_peer_score": 11.417243684005445, "peer_archived_score": 1.2902563003237597, "baseline_archived_score": 2.6427556457949826, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.417243684005445 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698254871.219216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698254871.219216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17260203319456002, 0.82739796680544 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 193, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Peter Bone, a British Conservative Party politician, served as Deputy Leader of the House of Commons in 2022 and has been representing Wellingborough as an MP since 2005. On 16 October 2023, he was recommended for suspension from the House of Commons by the [Independent Expert Panel](https://rb.gy/ddpkb) for multiple acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct against a staff member in 2012 and 2013. For the full report, see [here](https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/mps-lords--offices/standards-and-financial-interests/independent-expert-panel/hc-1904---the-conduct-of-mr-peter-bone-mp.pdf). \n\nThe recommendation of the panel is a suspension of 6 weeks: \n\n> This is a serious case of misconduct. […] The bullying involved violence, shouting and swearing, mocking, belittling and humiliating behaviour, and ostracism. […]\n\n> This wilful pattern of bullying also included an unwanted incident of sexual misconduct, when the complainant was trapped in a room with the respondent in a hotel in Madrid, […]. This was a deliberate and conscious abuse of power using a sexual mechanism: indecent exposure.\n\nThis suspension, if approved, will trigger the Recall of MPs Act 2015, initiating a recall petition in Bone's constituency which, if signed by 10% of the electorate within six weeks, will lead to a by-election due to the seat being declared vacant." }, { "id": 19408, "title": "Will Cooper Flagg make the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame before 2060?", "short_title": "Cooper Flagg HOF 2060", "url_title": "Cooper Flagg HOF 2060", "slug": "cooper-flagg-hof-2060", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-15T15:53:17.400892Z", "published_at": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-02T07:33:17.294968Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19408, "title": "Will Cooper Flagg make the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame before 2060?", "created_at": "2023-10-15T15:53:17.400892Z", "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T00:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T00:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/250591/cooper-flagg) and [247Sports](https://247sports.com/Player/Cooper-Flagg-46129443/), Cooper Flagg is the highest ranked basketball recruit in the United States. [He was the youngest player to ever win the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year in 2022.](https://www.si.com/college/duke/recruiting/duke-basketball-recruiting-target-national-honor) [Fansided](https://hoopshabit.com/2023/09/03/meet-cooper-flagg-best-american-prospect/) even made the bold claim that Flagg is the best American recruit since LeBron James, and [the King himself is known to be following Flagg's career.](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nba/who-is-cooper-flagg-meet-the-next-great-nba-draft-prospect/3087165/)\n\nHowever, [others are skeptical](https://youtu.be/nAyv_M_t9og) of putting much stock into high school players. There have been many players hyped up in high school that failed to even become NBA All-Stars such as OJ Mayo, Greg Oden and Kwame Brown.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces Cooper Flagg's induction before January 1, 2060. Otherwise, it will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "If the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame or the NBA ceases to exist before 2060, or if Cooper Flagg passes away before he plays seven NBA seasons, this question will be annulled. If Cooper Flagg goes undrafted for any reason, this question will resolve as No.", "post_id": 19408, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759390386.172349, "end_time": 1787693801.01, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759390386.172349, "end_time": 1787693801.01, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3743252930380813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9839306814079684, 0.0, 0.7972830703873104, 0.0, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.17886107948508886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287383.214337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287383.214337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8974260392969641, 0.10257396070303595 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/250591/cooper-flagg) and [247Sports](https://247sports.com/Player/Cooper-Flagg-46129443/), Cooper Flagg is the highest ranked basketball recruit in the United States. [He was the youngest player to ever win the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year in 2022.](https://www.si.com/college/duke/recruiting/duke-basketball-recruiting-target-national-honor) [Fansided](https://hoopshabit.com/2023/09/03/meet-cooper-flagg-best-american-prospect/) even made the bold claim that Flagg is the best American recruit since LeBron James, and [the King himself is known to be following Flagg's career.](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nba/who-is-cooper-flagg-meet-the-next-great-nba-draft-prospect/3087165/)\n\nHowever, [others are skeptical](https://youtu.be/nAyv_M_t9og) of putting much stock into high school players. There have been many players hyped up in high school that failed to even become NBA All-Stars such as OJ Mayo, Greg Oden and Kwame Brown." } ] }
