Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=340
{ "count": 6259, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=360", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=320", "results": [ { "id": 39576, "title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?", "short_title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between in Jun-Dec 2025?", "url_title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between in Jun-Dec 2025?", "slug": "will-any-new-country-attack-israel-or-iran-between-in-jun-dec-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.863947Z", "published_at": "2025-10-02T18:11:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-02T19:42:00.291383Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:38.076138Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-02T18:11:32Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38953, "title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.864353Z", "open_time": "2025-10-02T18:11:32Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T19:41:32Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-02 01:35:05 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38712). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries. On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38712,\"question_id\":37997}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 30, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any country besides Israel, Iran, Palestine, or the US attacks Israel or Iran.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an attack is defined as either:\n\n* A kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear attack targeting officials, infrastructure, or the military, occurring within the borders of Israel or Iran. (See Fine Print for detailed explanation of Israel's borders.)\n* At least 20 official military personnel entering the internationally recognised land borders of Israel or Iran, without the Israel or Iran's overt permission.", "fine_print": "* Attacks that are part of covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n* Attacks targeting officials of Israel or Iran will count even if they are conducted outside of each countries internationally recognised borders.\n* For the purposes of this question, Israel's borders are defined based on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will count.\n* The attacking country has to either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its official armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) unambiguously attribute it to its armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n* For the purposes of this question, a country is a UN member or non-member observer state.", "post_id": 39576, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759433618.998891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759433618.998891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1869050769998285 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 6.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 27.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-02 01:35:05 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38712). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries. On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38712,\"question_id\":37997}}`" }, { "id": 39575, "title": "Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?", "short_title": "US export ctrls for generative AI before 2026", "url_title": "US export ctrls for generative AI before 2026", "slug": "us-export-ctrls-for-generative-ai-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.341066Z", "published_at": "2025-10-17T16:08:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-17T17:39:00.230470Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.631638Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-17T16:08:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38952, "title": "Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.341478Z", "open_time": "2025-10-17T16:08:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-17T17:38:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17102). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.\n\nAs the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17102,\"question_id\":17102}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if, by Dec 31 2025, the US imposes export controls on some generative AI software, and **NO** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The export controls need not be specifically to China - anything under the standard export regime of the US would qualify.\n\nThe export controls must be specifically related to AI that can generate content. It is not sufficient if software produced by Microsoft or OpenAI cannot be exported to certain countries for other reasons - such as export bans on all software, or on all commercial products sold to certain countries.\n\nThese need to be actual export controls, as per the 2022 controls on semiconductors. Taxes or trade deals are not considered here.", "post_id": 39575, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760721831.817947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760721831.817947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.49914724641300734 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2023-05-17 15:19:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17102). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not focused on AI.)\n\nIn Oct 2022, the [US implemented export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China), that, roughly speaking, bans export of semiconductors that involve US in their manufacturing chain to China.\n\nAs the capabilities of generative AI systems grow, and as enterprise customers learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to create Deep Fakes or create armies of online bots), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to apply exports control to software that are similar to the export controls for hardware used for training AI.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":17102,\"question_id\":17102}}`" }, { "id": 39574, "title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?", "short_title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule in 2025?", "slug": "will-brazil-ban-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:36.868279Z", "published_at": "2025-09-27T13:45:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-27T15:16:00.241511Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:37.101487Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-27T13:45:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38951, "title": "Will Brazil ban the 6x1 work schedule before 1 January 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:36.868665Z", "open_time": "2025-09-27T13:45:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-27T15:15:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-11-22 02:45:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29956). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThere is currently [a lot of talk](https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2024/11/11/why-is-everyone-talking-about-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-brazil ) about banning the 6x1 work schedule (6 working days, 1 off) for registered workers in Brazil. Proponents claim that working 6 days a week is too exhausting and doesn't leave enough time for workers to rest, socialize and run errands. An ambitious constitutional ammendment has recently [been proposed](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2024/11/proposal-to-reduce-weekly-work-hours-in-brazil-gains-momentum-in-congress.shtml) by two Brazilian congress members that would mandate a 4x3 schedule for all workers and has garnered some support.\n\nPortuguese language sources:\n- https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2024/11/12/fim-da-escala-6x1-o-que-muda-se-pec-for-aprovada-no-congresso.htm\n- https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/redacao/2024/11/12/o-que-e-a-escala-6x1-entenda-o-que-propoe-a-pec-para-reducao-da-jornada.htm\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29956,\"question_id\":29790}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the 6x1 work schedule is officialy banned for most CLT occupations in Brazil before 1 January 2026, and will resolve as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "This question concerns only CLT occupations in Brazil (registered workers), and will resolve to **Yes** even if employers find legal workarounds to keep hiring people in 6x1 work schedules after a ban.\n\nIn Brazil, a CLT worker is someone employed under the rules of the Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho (CLT), or the Consolidation of Labor Laws. This legislation governs employment relations and protects workers' rights in Brazil. Being a CLT worker means you’re formally employed and entitled to a range of rights and protections set out in Brazilian labor laws.\n\n\"Most CLT occupations\" here means that the law lists no more than 5 exceptions to the general rule, affecting in total no more than 1% of the workforce", "post_id": 39574, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758984211.660023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.058 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758984211.660023, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.058 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16817486234154097 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 3.0, 4.0, 11.0, 1.0, 5.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-11-22 02:45:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29956). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThere is currently [a lot of talk](https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2024/11/11/why-is-everyone-talking-about-the-6x1-work-schedule-in-brazil ) about banning the 6x1 work schedule (6 working days, 1 off) for registered workers in Brazil. Proponents claim that working 6 days a week is too exhausting and doesn't leave enough time for workers to rest, socialize and run errands. An ambitious constitutional ammendment has recently [been proposed](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2024/11/proposal-to-reduce-weekly-work-hours-in-brazil-gains-momentum-in-congress.shtml) by two Brazilian congress members that would mandate a 4x3 schedule for all workers and has garnered some support.\n\nPortuguese language sources:\n- https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2024/11/12/fim-da-escala-6x1-o-que-muda-se-pec-for-aprovada-no-congresso.htm\n- https://economia.uol.com.br/noticias/redacao/2024/11/12/o-que-e-a-escala-6x1-entenda-o-que-propoe-a-pec-para-reducao-da-jornada.htm\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29956,\"question_id\":29790}}`" }, { "id": 39572, "title": "Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US pass an AI regulation federal bill before 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US pass an AI regulation federal bill before 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-pass-an-ai-regulation-federal-bill-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:35.801519Z", "published_at": "2025-10-15T02:22:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T03:53:00.152563Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:36.131213Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-15T02:22:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38949, "title": "Will the US pass a federal bill on AI regulation before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:35.801931Z", "open_time": "2025-10-15T02:22:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:52:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-10-30 13:03:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29076). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US adopt federal AI regulations?\n\nIn the last few years, the speed of artificial intelligence (AI) development has increased exponentially and continues to become ever more sophisticated. [Many see AI as a solution to the current productivity crisis](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-will-ai-affect-productivity/), and it is in the midst of an ‘[AI Boom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_boom)’, with global spending on AI expected to reach [$632 billion by 2028](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52530724), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC). \n\nThis has led to new and rapid advancements in the field. OpenAI, for example, the AI research organization behind ChatGPT, has launched its [‘Strawberry’ AI model](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-launches-new-series-ai-models-solve-hard-problems-2024-09-12/), capable of ‘reasoning’ through tasks and problems rather than generating a quick response. Likewise, the technology giant NVIDIA — a dominant supplier of AI hardware and software — has released its own open-source AI model, [NVLM 1.0](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/nvidia-just-debuted-its-new-open-source-advanced-ai-model-with-state-of-the-art-capabilities-to-take-on-openais-magical-gpt-4o).\n\nWhile AI is therefore seen as an essential tool moving forward, there are also great concerns with the technology. There has been a marked increase in the use of AI to spread disinformation, with [fake images](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/business/media/ai-generated-images.html), [videos](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/technology/artificial-intelligence-training-deepfake.html), and even [fake voice recordings](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68074257), designed to mimic politicians or celebrities, being widely propagated online, especially on [platforms such as X (formerly Twitter)](https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-spread-of-synthetic-media-on-x/) AI is also being utilized for criminal purposes. Gangs in Asia, for instance, are [“[l]everaging technological advances … to produc[e] larger scale and harder to detect fraud, money laundering, underground banking[,] and online scams”](https://www.unodc.org/roseap/en/2024/10/cyberfraud-industry-expands-southeast-asia/story.html), according to Masood Karimipour, a regional representative of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). \n\nAs a result, there has been a push to regulate AI at the government level. The European Union (EU), for example, implemented the [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) which came into force on 1 August 2024, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Likewise, there has been a similar push to regulate AI at a federal level in the United States. In 2022, the White House released its ‘[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/ai-bill-of-rights/)’ and, in 2023, President Joe Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. Despite this, the [United States lacks any overarching federal regulation](https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2024/04/existing-and-proposed-federal-ai-regulation-in-the-united-states), meaning AI in the US is currently governed by a mixture of federal and state law, the industry itself, and the judiciary.\n\nGiven that the pace of AI development continues to grow, the question arises as to whether the US government will adopt federal regulations for AI, or whether the [$146 billion industry](https://www.precedenceresearch.com/us-artificial-intelligence-market) will continue under its current patchwork regulatory regime.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29076,\"question_id\":28996}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the following conditions are met:\n\n - A bill primarily focused on AI regulation - containing specific provisions for the governance, oversight, or regulation of artificial intelligence technologies - has been introduced and passed by both the House of Representatives and the Senate.\n - The bill is signed into law by the President of the United States or becomes law by congressional override of a presidential veto, before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "- The bill must focus on general AI regulation. Broader federal bills that include AI regulations as a secondary focus, or bills specific to a particular domain of AI (e.g., AI in healthcare), do not count.\n- The date the bill takes effect does not matter, as long as it is enacted by January 1, 2026.\n- Only federal bills are considered; other measures, such as Executive Orders, will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 39572, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760500204.114315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760500204.114315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.15914523638198005 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 6.0, 6.0, 6.0, 5.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 19.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-10-30 13:03:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29076). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US adopt federal AI regulations?\n\nIn the last few years, the speed of artificial intelligence (AI) development has increased exponentially and continues to become ever more sophisticated. [Many see AI as a solution to the current productivity crisis](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-will-ai-affect-productivity/), and it is in the midst of an ‘[AI Boom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_boom)’, with global spending on AI expected to reach [$632 billion by 2028](https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS52530724), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC). \n\nThis has led to new and rapid advancements in the field. OpenAI, for example, the AI research organization behind ChatGPT, has launched its [‘Strawberry’ AI model](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-launches-new-series-ai-models-solve-hard-problems-2024-09-12/), capable of ‘reasoning’ through tasks and problems rather than generating a quick response. Likewise, the technology giant NVIDIA — a dominant supplier of AI hardware and software — has released its own open-source AI model, [NVLM 1.0](https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/nvidia-just-debuted-its-new-open-source-advanced-ai-model-with-state-of-the-art-capabilities-to-take-on-openais-magical-gpt-4o).\n\nWhile AI is therefore seen as an essential tool moving forward, there are also great concerns with the technology. There has been a marked increase in the use of AI to spread disinformation, with [fake images](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/08/business/media/ai-generated-images.html), [videos](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/technology/artificial-intelligence-training-deepfake.html), and even [fake voice recordings](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-68074257), designed to mimic politicians or celebrities, being widely propagated online, especially on [platforms such as X (formerly Twitter)](https://misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/article/the-spread-of-synthetic-media-on-x/) AI is also being utilized for criminal purposes. Gangs in Asia, for instance, are [“[l]everaging technological advances … to produc[e] larger scale and harder to detect fraud, money laundering, underground banking[,] and online scams”](https://www.unodc.org/roseap/en/2024/10/cyberfraud-industry-expands-southeast-asia/story.html), according to Masood Karimipour, a regional representative of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). \n\nAs a result, there has been a push to regulate AI at the government level. The European Union (EU), for example, implemented the [Artificial Intelligence Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence_Act) which came into force on 1 August 2024, establishing a common regulatory and legal framework for AI within the EU. Likewise, there has been a similar push to regulate AI at a federal level in the United States. In 2022, the White House released its ‘[AI Bill of Rights](https://www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/ai-bill-of-rights/)’ and, in 2023, President Joe Biden signed [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/), defining the administration’s policy goals regarding AI and directing executive agencies to pursue them. Despite this, the [United States lacks any overarching federal regulation](https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2024/04/existing-and-proposed-federal-ai-regulation-in-the-united-states), meaning AI in the US is currently governed by a mixture of federal and state law, the industry itself, and the judiciary.\n\nGiven that the pace of AI development continues to grow, the question arises as to whether the US government will adopt federal regulations for AI, or whether the [$146 billion industry](https://www.precedenceresearch.com/us-artificial-intelligence-market) will continue under its current patchwork regulatory regime.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29076,\"question_id\":28996}}`" }, { "id": 39569, "title": "Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?", "short_title": "Will the Ibex rise in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the Ibex rise in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-ibex-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:34.034807Z", "published_at": "2025-09-14T18:43:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T20:14:00.247714Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:34.270345Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-14T20:13:55Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-14T20:13:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-14T18:43:55Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38946, "title": "Will the IBEX 35 close 2025 higher than it started?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:34.035190Z", "open_time": "2025-09-14T18:43:55Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-14T20:13:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-14T20:13:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-14T20:13:55Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-14T20:13:55Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35572). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe Ibex 35 is the main stock market index of the Madrid Stock Exchange. It serves as a key barometer of the Spanish economy, reflecting national and international economic conditions. The composition of the index can be explored in detail [ <u>on Wikipedia</u> ](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBEX_35) <u>.</u>\n After leading the growth of EU stock markets in 2023 with a 23% increase, the IBEX 35 has remained near the top of the table in 2024, rising by 14.78%. It was the [ <u>second best-performing stock market index among major European markets</u> ](https://www.bolsasymercados.es/docs/infmercado/2024/ing/Market-Report-BME-2024.pdf).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35572,\"question_id\":35022}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the official closing value of the Ibex 35 on the last business day of 2025 (normally December 31st or the previous session if it falls on a holiday) exceeds 11,595.00, according to the Close column of [ <u>its page on Yahoo Finance</u> ](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIBEX/history/). It will be resolved as **No** if the value is equal to or less than €11,595.00.", "fine_print": "• If Yahoo Finance stops reporting this data, a credible alternative source can be used to resolve this question.", "post_id": 39569, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757880223.433215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757880223.433215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.8281462927547485 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 3.0, 5.0, 3.0, 13.0, 2.0, 8.0, 5.0, 3.0, 9.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35572). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe Ibex 35 is the main stock market index of the Madrid Stock Exchange. It serves as a key barometer of the Spanish economy, reflecting national and international economic conditions. The composition of the index can be explored in detail [ <u>on Wikipedia</u> ](https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBEX_35) <u>.</u>\n After leading the growth of EU stock markets in 2023 with a 23% increase, the IBEX 35 has remained near the top of the table in 2024, rising by 14.78%. It was the [ <u>second best-performing stock market index among major European markets</u> ](https://www.bolsasymercados.es/docs/infmercado/2024/ing/Market-Report-BME-2024.pdf).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35572,\"question_id\":35022}}`" }, { "id": 39568, "title": "Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI release a powerful open-source AI model before October 2025?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI release a powerful open-source AI model before October 2025?", "slug": "will-openai-release-a-powerful-open-source-ai-model-before-october-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:33.529059Z", "published_at": "2025-09-06T08:09:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T09:40:00.091538Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:33.809724Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-06T09:39:13Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-06T09:39:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-06T08:09:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38945, "title": "Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:33.529459Z", "open_time": "2025-09-06T08:09:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-06T09:39:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-06T09:39:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-06T09:39:13Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-06T09:39:13Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-18 11:20:52 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38796). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[OpenAI plans to release a new open-source model](https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/23/openai-seeks-to-make-its-upcoming-open-ai-model-best-in-class), a significant move as its last open-weight model was GPT-2.\n\nThis new model is expected to be a \"text in, text out\" system focused on reasoning, similar to OpenAI's proprietary \"o-series\" models like [o1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI_o1), [o3, and o4-mini](https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/). These models are designed to \"think\" for longer before providing an answer, excelling at complex tasks. The performance of open-source models is often tracked on the public [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), which uses crowdsourced user votes to rank models. As of July 1st, 2025, top open-source models like Deepseek-R1, Qwen3-235B, and Gemma3 rank between 10th, 22nd, and 24th place, respectively, while OpenAI's closed o-series models, o3 and o4-mini, hold the 2nd and 10th places, respectively.\n\nThe release of the proposed OpenAI open-source model was delayed to later this summer, [quoting Sam Altman](https://x.com/sama/status/1932573231199707168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1932573231199707168%7Ctwgr%5E72ece85d251001bb769788f1d0fd8b3e4d3b3076%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2025%2F06%2F10%2Fopenais-open-model-is-delayed%2F):\n\n> we are going to take a little more time with our open-weights model, i.e. expect it later this summer but not june. our research team did something unexpected and quite amazing and we think it will be very very worth the wait, but needs a bit longer.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38796,\"question_id\":38117}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model is released by OpenAI before October 1, 2025 that meets both of the following criteria:\n\n1. The model has a license that is anything other than “proprietary,” and its weights are publicly available for download.\n2. The model is ranked in the top 35 on the [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) in the Text category one month after its release.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39568, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757151081.840063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13245198692829896 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757151081.840063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13245198692829896 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.29320912705983826 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-07-18 11:20:52 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38796). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[OpenAI plans to release a new open-source model](https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/23/openai-seeks-to-make-its-upcoming-open-ai-model-best-in-class), a significant move as its last open-weight model was GPT-2.\n\nThis new model is expected to be a \"text in, text out\" system focused on reasoning, similar to OpenAI's proprietary \"o-series\" models like [o1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI_o1), [o3, and o4-mini](https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/). These models are designed to \"think\" for longer before providing an answer, excelling at complex tasks. The performance of open-source models is often tracked on the public [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), which uses crowdsourced user votes to rank models. As of July 1st, 2025, top open-source models like Deepseek-R1, Qwen3-235B, and Gemma3 rank between 10th, 22nd, and 24th place, respectively, while OpenAI's closed o-series models, o3 and o4-mini, hold the 2nd and 10th places, respectively.\n\nThe release of the proposed OpenAI open-source model was delayed to later this summer, [quoting Sam Altman](https://x.com/sama/status/1932573231199707168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1932573231199707168%7Ctwgr%5E72ece85d251001bb769788f1d0fd8b3e4d3b3076%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2025%2F06%2F10%2Fopenais-open-model-is-delayed%2F):\n\n> we are going to take a little more time with our open-weights model, i.e. expect it later this summer but not june. our research team did something unexpected and quite amazing and we think it will be very very worth the wait, but needs a bit longer.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38796,\"question_id\":38117}}`" }, { "id": 39566, "title": "Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Sanchez to become president by the end of 2025?", "url_title": "Sanchez to become president by the end of 2025?", "slug": "sanchez-to-become-president-by-the-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:27.413088Z", "published_at": "2025-09-16T08:43:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T10:14:00.313559Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:27.650198Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T10:13:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T10:13:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-16T08:43:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38943, "title": "Will Pedro Sánchez still be president of Spain at the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:27.413489Z", "open_time": "2025-09-16T08:43:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-16T10:13:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-16T10:13:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-16T10:13:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-16T10:13:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35261). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nPedro Sánchez is the leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and has been serving as Prime Minister of Spain since June 2018. Sánchez has run a [ <u>coalition government since 2020</u> ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Pedro_Sánchez_government), with a [ <u>different configuration following the 2023 elections</u> ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Pedro_Sánchez_government). Currently, there are no general elections scheduled before the end of 2025. For Sánchez to be removed from office, he would have to resign or face a [ <u>motion of no confidence</u> ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motion_of_censure_\\(Spain\\)), a demanding process in the Spanish political system as it requires an alternative majority.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35261,\"question_id\":34745}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be answered as **Yes** if Pedro Sánchez holds the office of Prime Minister of Spain at the end of the day on December 31, 2025. It will be answered as **No** if he does not hold that office at that time. Confirmation will be based on official sources.", "fine_print": "* The question does not consider whether Sánchez has announced his future resignation, only whether he officially takes up office at the end of the day on December 31, 2025.\n\n • If Sánchez does not hold office, but is the acting President at the end of the day on December 31, 2025, this question will still be resolved as **No**.", "post_id": 39566, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758017018.531372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74375 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.855 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758017018.531372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74375 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.855 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7960040658797809 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 13.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 16.0, 4.0, 3.0, 6.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35261). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nPedro Sánchez is the leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and has been serving as Prime Minister of Spain since June 2018. Sánchez has run a [ <u>coalition government since 2020</u> ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Pedro_Sánchez_government), with a [ <u>different configuration following the 2023 elections</u> ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Pedro_Sánchez_government). Currently, there are no general elections scheduled before the end of 2025. For Sánchez to be removed from office, he would have to resign or face a [ <u>motion of no confidence</u> ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motion_of_censure_\\(Spain\\)), a demanding process in the Spanish political system as it requires an alternative majority.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35261,\"question_id\":34745}}`" }, { "id": 39564, "title": "Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Number of UN member states in 2026", "url_title": "Number of UN member states in 2026", "slug": "number-of-un-member-states-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:26.284592Z", "published_at": "2025-10-22T23:46:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-23T01:17:00.257770Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:26.554085Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-23T01:16:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-23T01:16:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-22T23:46:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38941, "title": "Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:26.284997Z", "open_time": "2025-10-22T23:46:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-23T01:16:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-23T01:16:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-23T01:16:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-23T01:16:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-08-03 12:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26884). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26884,\"question_id\":26884}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the official number of United Nations member states exceeds 193 at any point between the question's opening date and 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2025 (inclusive). It will resolve negatively if the number of member states remains at or below 193 throughout this period.\n\nResolution will be based on the official membership count as reported on the United Nations website ([Member States](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states)) in official UN press releases, or from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the UN's official numbers.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"member states\" refers to full member states of the United Nations, not observer states or any other category of affiliation.\n\nIf a new member state is admitted that would bring the number above 193 but its membership does not take effect until after the resolution date, the question will still resolve negatively.\n\nIf the United Nations as an organization ceases to exist before the resolution date, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 39564, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761181678.239165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761181678.239165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08950788084512641 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 13.0, 16.0, 13.0, 9.0, 14.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-08-03 12:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26884). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26884,\"question_id\":26884}}`" }, { "id": 39563, "title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from President Trump before October 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from POTUS by October 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from POTUS by October 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-senate-vote-on-a-rescission-proposal-from-potus-by-october-1-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:25.750360Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T19:55:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.615867Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:26.066685Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-04T00:40:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T19:55:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38940, "title": "Will the US Senate vote on a rescission proposal from President Trump before October 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:25.750787Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T19:55:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-04T00:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-04T00:53:25.393549Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T21:25:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-05-29 20:10:46 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38177). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nRescission, a noun form of the verb \"rescind,\" is the term used by the US Congress when it rescinds spending that it had previously allocated. Under the US Constitution, the legislative branch appropriates funds, while the executive branch \"shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.\" In recent decades this has been commonly interpreted to mean the President typically must spend the funds that Congress has allocated. This interpretation was upheld by the Supreme Court in the landmark Train v. City of New York (see, e.g., discussion from[ <u>Taxpayers for Common Sense</u>](https://www.taxpayer.net/budget-appropriations-tax/train-v-city-of-new-york-a-landmark-case-in-budgetary-authority/)). In that case, President Richard Nixon directed the EPA to withhold water treatment funds to NYC that Congress had previously budgeted. The Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the funds could not be withheld.\n\nIn order to allow Presidents a means by which they can rescind previously-allocated spending, Congress passed the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974#Impoundment) (ICA). Under the ICA, Presidents wanting to avoid certain spending can send a special message to Congress (see proposals from President Trump's first term [here](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/budget-rescissions-deferrals/)) detailing the specific dollar amounts and reasons for each proposed rescission. Congress then has a 45-day window to accept the rescission proposal package. If Congress does not accept it, then the allocated funds must be released.\n\nFor its part, officials in the Trump Administration including Trump himself [have said](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-impoundment-and-how-trump-vows-to-use-it) they believe the ICA to be unconstitutional and therefore no rescission request is necessary, with Trump saying he would use \"the president’s long-recognized impoundment power to squeeze the bloated federal bureaucracy for massive savings.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, President Donald Trump [is reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-sending-9-4-billion-doge-cuts-package-congress-next-week) to nevertheless be preparing a rescissions package of about \\$9.4 billion, much of which is credited to Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. According to [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/trump-budget-doge-npr-pbs-usaid-congress), the rescissions will primarily affect NPR, PBS, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).\n\nAccording to the [Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment), this has come to a head recently due especially to US district courts blocking Administration attempts to suspend funding to USAID and other foreign aid programs:\n\n> Considering this case and related legal actions, some Republicans in Congress have called for the President to propose a rescission package to codify the funding cuts that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been making. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) [said](https://reason.com/2025/02/19/rand-paul-wants-doge-to-build-a-500-billion-rescission-package-for-congress-to-approve/) “I’d love to see a \\$500 billion rescission package. The Republicans right now in the Senate are actually agitating to increase spending. I'd much rather be voting on a bill to reduce spending than increase spending.\" Senator Paul [pitched](https://www.axios.com/2025/03/05/elon-musk-senate-republicans-spending-rand-paul) his plan to Elon Musk, the leader of DOGE, who reacted favorably, particularly because any rescission package would only require 51 votes in the Senate, bypassing Democratic opposition. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-SC) also [supports](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) the plan: “It would be a big mistake if we don’t \\[vote on rescissions]. It’s the one way to make DOGE cuts real.”\n\n> Some Senators are skeptical that the Administration would ask for Congressional approval of spending cuts given how DOGE has operated so far. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) “Do you think that they’re asking for us to vote on this?” Senator Paul [added](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620), “There are forces in the administration who want to simply fight the constitutionality of the Impoundment Act. You might argue that there might not be an incentive to send a rescission package if you plan on fighting the constitutionality of the law.”\n\nHistorically, rescission requests were made by US presidents in 25 out of the 26 years from 1974 to 2000 ([GAO](https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-322906.pdf)) and then by President Trump in 2018 and 2021.\n\nSee related Metaculus questions:\n\n* [Compared to FY 2024, what will the US government's funding for international HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment be in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35601/us-govt-funding-for-global-hiv-relative-to-2024/)\n* [Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481/pepfar-program-terminated-before-january-1-2026/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38177,\"question_id\":37469}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after May 28, 2025, and before October 1, 2025, the United States Senate conducts a floor [vote](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/voting.htm) on the passage of a rescission proposal made by the US president pursuant to the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48432).", "fine_print": "This question resolves as Yes upon the Senate conducting a floor vote on the rescission bill; actual passage is not required. \n\nAn example of a vote that would count is [H.R. 3](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3) from the 115th Congress, in which the Senate on June 20, 2018 in a 48-50 Yay/Nay roll-call vote rejected President Trump's [proposed rescission](https://www.congress.gov/congressional-record/volume-164/issue-74/house-section/article/H3832-1) of budget authority that was submitted on May 8, 2018.", "post_id": 39563, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756847853.093516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756847853.093516, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.5015090336874525 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 20.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-05-29 20:10:46 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38177). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nRescission, a noun form of the verb \"rescind,\" is the term used by the US Congress when it rescinds spending that it had previously allocated. Under the US Constitution, the legislative branch appropriates funds, while the executive branch \"shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed.\" In recent decades this has been commonly interpreted to mean the President typically must spend the funds that Congress has allocated. This interpretation was upheld by the Supreme Court in the landmark Train v. City of New York (see, e.g., discussion from[ <u>Taxpayers for Common Sense</u>](https://www.taxpayer.net/budget-appropriations-tax/train-v-city-of-new-york-a-landmark-case-in-budgetary-authority/)). In that case, President Richard Nixon directed the EPA to withhold water treatment funds to NYC that Congress had previously budgeted. The Supreme Court ruled 9-0 that the funds could not be withheld.\n\nIn order to allow Presidents a means by which they can rescind previously-allocated spending, Congress passed the [Impoundment Control Act of 1974](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Budget_and_Impoundment_Control_Act_of_1974#Impoundment) (ICA). Under the ICA, Presidents wanting to avoid certain spending can send a special message to Congress (see proposals from President Trump's first term [here](https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/budget-rescissions-deferrals/)) detailing the specific dollar amounts and reasons for each proposed rescission. Congress then has a 45-day window to accept the rescission proposal package. If Congress does not accept it, then the allocated funds must be released.\n\nFor its part, officials in the Trump Administration including Trump himself [have said](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-you-need-to-know-about-impoundment-and-how-trump-vows-to-use-it) they believe the ICA to be unconstitutional and therefore no rescission request is necessary, with Trump saying he would use \"the president’s long-recognized impoundment power to squeeze the bloated federal bureaucracy for massive savings.\"\n\nAt the time of this question, President Donald Trump [is reported](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/white-house-sending-9-4-billion-doge-cuts-package-congress-next-week) to nevertheless be preparing a rescissions package of about \\$9.4 billion, much of which is credited to Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative. According to [Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/05/28/trump-budget-doge-npr-pbs-usaid-congress), the rescissions will primarily affect NPR, PBS, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).\n\nAccording to the [Conference Board](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment), this has come to a head recently due especially to US district courts blocking Administration attempts to suspend funding to USAID and other foreign aid programs:\n\n> Considering this case and related legal actions, some Republicans in Congress have called for the President to propose a rescission package to codify the funding cuts that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been making. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) [said](https://reason.com/2025/02/19/rand-paul-wants-doge-to-build-a-500-billion-rescission-package-for-congress-to-approve/) “I’d love to see a \\$500 billion rescission package. The Republicans right now in the Senate are actually agitating to increase spending. I'd much rather be voting on a bill to reduce spending than increase spending.\" Senator Paul [pitched](https://www.axios.com/2025/03/05/elon-musk-senate-republicans-spending-rand-paul) his plan to Elon Musk, the leader of DOGE, who reacted favorably, particularly because any rescission package would only require 51 votes in the Senate, bypassing Democratic opposition. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-SC) also [supports](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) the plan: “It would be a big mistake if we don’t \\[vote on rescissions]. It’s the one way to make DOGE cuts real.”\n\n> Some Senators are skeptical that the Administration would ask for Congressional approval of spending cuts given how DOGE has operated so far. Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620) “Do you think that they’re asking for us to vote on this?” Senator Paul [added](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/21/doge-cuts-congress-rescissions-elon-musk-00003620), “There are forces in the administration who want to simply fight the constitutionality of the Impoundment Act. You might argue that there might not be an incentive to send a rescission package if you plan on fighting the constitutionality of the law.”\n\nHistorically, rescission requests were made by US presidents in 25 out of the 26 years from 1974 to 2000 ([GAO](https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-322906.pdf)) and then by President Trump in 2018 and 2021.\n\nSee related Metaculus questions:\n\n* [Compared to FY 2024, what will the US government's funding for international HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment be in the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35601/us-govt-funding-for-global-hiv-relative-to-2024/)\n* [Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481/pepfar-program-terminated-before-january-1-2026/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38177,\"question_id\":37469}}`" }, { "id": 39562, "title": "Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "US HHS Declares Public Health Emergency for H5 Before 2026?", "url_title": "US HHS Declares Public Health Emergency for H5 Before 2026?", "slug": "us-hhs-declares-public-health-emergency-for-h5-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:24.969664Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T04:12:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T05:43:00.289005Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:25.517319Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T05:42:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T05:42:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T04:12:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 109, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38939, "title": "Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:24.970094Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T04:12:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T05:42:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T05:42:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T05:42:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T05:42:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-12 17:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30959). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of December 11, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), report [58 confirmed human cases of H5 avian influenza](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) in the United States. So far 56 of these cases have been connected to exposure from cattle or poultry, though the exposure source of two of these cases is unknown.\n\nThe spread of H5 avian influenza among birds and cattle and its spread to humans has [raised concerns](https://www.today.com/health/disease/bird-flu-pandemic-rcna183174) that it could turn into another pandemic. However, as of December 11, 2024, CDC's [summary of the current situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) states the following:\n\n> * Person-to-person spread: None\n> * Current public health risk: Low\n\nIn the United States, declarations of a [public health emergency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_(United_States)) (PHE) can allow the government to [take a number of emergency preparedness and response actions](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/phe-qa.aspx). [According to the US Department of Health and Human Services](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/pages/default.aspx) (HHS):\n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency; or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists. \n\nThe HHS maintains [a page of all prior PHE declarations](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/pages/default.aspx) since August of 2005, including for the four disease outbreaks designated in that period of [H1N1](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/h1n1-26Apr2009.aspx), [Zika](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/zika-pr.aspx), [COVID-19](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/2019-nCoV.aspx), and [Mpox](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx), each of which was renewed at least once.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30959,\"question_id\":30731}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has declared a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza.", "fine_print": "* To qualify, a public health emergency must be declared which names H5 avian influenza in some form. This could include naming H5 or any subtype of H5, or any name given to H5 or highly pathogenic avian influenza that, in the judgment of Metaculus, encompasses H5 or any subtype of H5. Announcements of public health emergencies are typically [posted at the HHS website](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/pages/default.aspx).\n* The intention is for this question to resolve based on any public health emergency declared by the HHS. Therefore, this question does not have additional requirements beyond the declaration (for example, human-to-human transmission is not required).\n* In the event the law is changed such that a non-HHS agency is expected to be responsible for declaring such emergencies, Metaculus may clarify or annul this question.\n* The state or territory designated for the public health emergency is immaterial, any declaration will count.", "post_id": 39562, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761542969.409017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761542969.409017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.14454398310793046 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 5.0, 2.0, 4.0, 6.0, 3.0, 3.0, 7.0, 1.0, 9.0, 2.0, 1.0, 25.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-12 17:30:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30959). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nAs of December 11, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), report [58 confirmed human cases of H5 avian influenza](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) in the United States. So far 56 of these cases have been connected to exposure from cattle or poultry, though the exposure source of two of these cases is unknown.\n\nThe spread of H5 avian influenza among birds and cattle and its spread to humans has [raised concerns](https://www.today.com/health/disease/bird-flu-pandemic-rcna183174) that it could turn into another pandemic. However, as of December 11, 2024, CDC's [summary of the current situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) states the following:\n\n> * Person-to-person spread: None\n> * Current public health risk: Low\n\nIn the United States, declarations of a [public health emergency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_(United_States)) (PHE) can allow the government to [take a number of emergency preparedness and response actions](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/phe-qa.aspx). [According to the US Department of Health and Human Services](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/pages/default.aspx) (HHS):\n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency; or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists. \n\nThe HHS maintains [a page of all prior PHE declarations](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/pages/default.aspx) since August of 2005, including for the four disease outbreaks designated in that period of [H1N1](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/h1n1-26Apr2009.aspx), [Zika](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/zika-pr.aspx), [COVID-19](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/2019-nCoV.aspx), and [Mpox](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx), each of which was renewed at least once.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30959,\"question_id\":30731}}`" }, { "id": 39561, "title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Will China and India ratify a border treaty by 2025?", "url_title": "Will China and India ratify a border treaty by 2025?", "slug": "will-china-and-india-ratify-a-border-treaty-by-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:19.260731Z", "published_at": "2025-09-30T12:01:06Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-30T13:32:00.224460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:19.595210Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T13:31:06Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T13:31:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-30T12:01:06Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38938, "title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral border treaty before the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:19.261134Z", "open_time": "2025-09-30T12:01:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-30T13:31:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-30T13:31:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T13:31:06Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T13:31:06Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-19 14:04:54 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31653). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn 1993 India and China, following the [Sumdorong Chu standoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumdorong_Chu_standoff), [sought to](https://www.archieve.claudearpi.net/maintenance/uploaded_pics/Agrreements_on_the_Border.pdf) maintain peace along the [Line of Actual Control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) and prevent unplanned confrontations. [Subsequent agreements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#Timeline) in 1996, 2005, [2012](https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/LegalTreatiesDoc/CH12B0194.pdf), and [2013](https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/eoibejing_listview/ODM0) continued to build upon this foundation, establishing mechanisms for consultation, coordination, and confidence-building measures along the border. On May 5, 2020, Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a [clash at Pangong Tso lake](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/blood-spilled-on-the-china-india-border/), marking the beginning of a series of confrontations. The situation deteriorated, leading to the deadly [Galwan Valley clash](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476) on June 15, 2020. Incidents continued to occur, including a [clash in January 2021](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112) near Naku La in Sikkim and[ another in December 2022](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63953400) in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh. In October 2024, India and China reached a [significant agreement](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/world/asia/india-china-border.html) to ease border tensions that had persisted since the deadly clash in Galwan Valley in June 2020. This agreement, announced on October 21, 2024, focused on restoring pre-2020 patrolling protocols in specific areas along the Line of Actual Control, particularly in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region of Ladakh.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31653,\"question_id\":31205}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, both India and China formally ratify a bilateral treaty that includes one or more articles specifically addressing the territorial boundaries between the two countries.", "fine_print": "* Any ratified bilateral treaty would count as long as it mentions step towards addressing the border dispute. The treaty doesn't actually have to solve any part of the border dispute. For example, a treaty that said \"China and India agree to discuss the border at some point before 2500\" would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* The treaty may address other topics and does not need to address all existing border disputes to qualify.\n* A joint communique will not count, independently of content, as communiques are not ratified.", "post_id": 39561, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759238789.657605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759238789.657605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17030479775616572 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 4.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 4.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 19.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-19 14:04:54 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31653). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn 1993 India and China, following the [Sumdorong Chu standoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumdorong_Chu_standoff), [sought to](https://www.archieve.claudearpi.net/maintenance/uploaded_pics/Agrreements_on_the_Border.pdf) maintain peace along the [Line of Actual Control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) and prevent unplanned confrontations. [Subsequent agreements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#Timeline) in 1996, 2005, [2012](https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/LegalTreatiesDoc/CH12B0194.pdf), and [2013](https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/eoibejing_listview/ODM0) continued to build upon this foundation, establishing mechanisms for consultation, coordination, and confidence-building measures along the border. On May 5, 2020, Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a [clash at Pangong Tso lake](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/blood-spilled-on-the-china-india-border/), marking the beginning of a series of confrontations. The situation deteriorated, leading to the deadly [Galwan Valley clash](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476) on June 15, 2020. Incidents continued to occur, including a [clash in January 2021](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112) near Naku La in Sikkim and[ another in December 2022](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63953400) in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh. In October 2024, India and China reached a [significant agreement](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/world/asia/india-china-border.html) to ease border tensions that had persisted since the deadly clash in Galwan Valley in June 2020. This agreement, announced on October 21, 2024, focused on restoring pre-2020 patrolling protocols in specific areas along the Line of Actual Control, particularly in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region of Ladakh.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31653,\"question_id\":31205}}`" }, { "id": 39560, "title": "Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?", "short_title": "Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be a franchise?", "url_title": "Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be a franchise?", "slug": "will-the-highest-grossing-film-of-2025-be-a-franchise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:18.734183Z", "published_at": "2025-09-08T19:48:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T21:19:00.089528Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:18.995202Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T21:18:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T21:18:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-08T19:48:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38937, "title": "Will the highest-grossing film of 2025 be part of a franchise?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:18.734593Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T19:48:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-08T21:18:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-08T21:18:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T21:18:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T21:18:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35564). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFilm franchises have dominated the global box office in recent years, often outperforming independent films through established audiences and extensive merchandising. Platforms such as [ <u>Box Office Mojo</u> ](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2025/) provide detailed global revenue statistics. In the past four years, three times the highest-grossing film was a franchise film.\n\n In 2025, several high-profile franchise films are [ <u>scheduled for release</u> ](https://screenrant.com/movie-sequels-massive-budgets-coming-in-2025-list/), including “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning,” and “Jurassic World Rebirth.” The current leader at the box office is “Captain America: Brave New World,” a franchise-selling film.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35564,\"question_id\":35015}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the final worldwide box office data for 2025—as reported by a reliable source such as [ <u>Box Office Mojo</u> ](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2025/)—the film with the highest total gross is a franchise film (i.e., part of a series or cinematic universe). It will be resolved as **No** if the highest-grossing film is not part of a franchise. In the event of a tie for first place, the question will be resolved as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "• Established franchises or cinematic universes must cover the same universe. For example, both the '28 Days Later' series and the 'Before' Trilogy would count as franchises, while 'Venom,' when it first premiered, would not be considered part of a franchise.\n\n • A movie that is a *remake* automatically makes it part of a franchise.\n\n • A film that has an announced sequel will count as part of a franchise.", "post_id": 39560, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757365728.87975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757365728.87975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.8928480271445269 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 5.0, 17.0, 1.0, 4.0, 8.0, 7.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35564). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nFilm franchises have dominated the global box office in recent years, often outperforming independent films through established audiences and extensive merchandising. Platforms such as [ <u>Box Office Mojo</u> ](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/world/2025/) provide detailed global revenue statistics. In the past four years, three times the highest-grossing film was a franchise film.\n\n In 2025, several high-profile franchise films are [ <u>scheduled for release</u> ](https://screenrant.com/movie-sequels-massive-budgets-coming-in-2025-list/), including “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning,” and “Jurassic World Rebirth.” The current leader at the box office is “Captain America: Brave New World,” a franchise-selling film.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35564,\"question_id\":35015}}`" }, { "id": 39558, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?", "short_title": "Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2026?", "url_title": "Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2026?", "slug": "human-transmission-of-h5n1-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:17.373270Z", "published_at": "2025-10-30T23:30:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T01:01:00.237706Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:17.733840Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-31T01:00:38Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-31T01:00:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-30T23:30:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38935, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:17.373673Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T23:30:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-31T01:00:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-31T01:00:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-31T01:00:38Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-31T01:00:38Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-07-17 19:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26328). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\nIn its [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation page](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html), CDC says the following, as of July 17, 2024:\n\n>* H5 bird flu is widespread in wild birds worldwide and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows with several recent human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers.\n>* While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures.\n>* CDC is using its flu surveillance systems to monitor for H5 bird flu activity in people.\n\nAdditionally, as of July 17, 2024, the page reports nine total human cases in the United States since 2022, with five of the nine having been confirmed as H5N1. The page also currently reports that there has been no person-to-person spread and that the current public health risk is \"low\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26328,\"question_id\":26328}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 17, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.", "fine_print": "* Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.\n* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.", "post_id": 39558, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761870994.602281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.098 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761870994.602281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.098 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16821441815884328 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 5.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 10.0, 4.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 23.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-07-17 19:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26328). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nOn April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\nIn its [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation page](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html), CDC says the following, as of July 17, 2024:\n\n>* H5 bird flu is widespread in wild birds worldwide and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows with several recent human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers.\n>* While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures.\n>* CDC is using its flu surveillance systems to monitor for H5 bird flu activity in people.\n\nAdditionally, as of July 17, 2024, the page reports nine total human cases in the United States since 2022, with five of the nine having been confirmed as H5N1. The page also currently reports that there has been no person-to-person spread and that the current public health risk is \"low\".\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":26328,\"question_id\":26328}}`" }, { "id": 39557, "title": "Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?", "short_title": "Will inflation be lower in Nov 2025 than it was in Nov 2024?", "url_title": "Will inflation be lower in Nov 2025 than it was in Nov 2024?", "slug": "will-inflation-be-lower-in-nov-2025-than-it-was-in-nov-2024", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:16.721016Z", "published_at": "2025-09-14T20:04:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T21:35:00.147406Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:16.944114Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-14T21:34:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-14T21:34:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-11T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-14T20:04:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38934, "title": "Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T06:17:16.721420Z", "open_time": "2025-09-14T20:04:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-14T21:34:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-14T21:34:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-11T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-14T21:34:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-14T21:34:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:42:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31315). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nInflation [was a top issue](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-harris-inflation-2024/) in the 2024 US presidential election, with Donald Trump saying in his September 10th debate with Kamala Harris, \"We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before. Probably the worst in our nation's history.\" In recent decades, inflation has been as follows:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1CTp9&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" /> \nTrump has vowed to take a more active role in setting interest rates, [telling](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/18/nx-s1-5076953/should-a-president-have-total-control-over-the-fed-harris-and-trump-disagree) reporters, \"I feel the president should have at least say in there, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.\" \n\nA recent report from Moodys [estimates](https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/site-assets/assessing-the-macroeconomic-consequences-of-harris-vs-trump.pdf) an inflation rate of 3.5% in 2025, \"fueled by the higher tariffs, outflow of foreign immigrants, the resulting tighter labor market and more quickly rising labor costs, and tax-cut-fueled fiscal stimulus.\" On the other hand, some experts [have predicted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/financial-experts-2025-predictions-inflation-120345805.html) that the Department of Government Efficiency could put downward pressure on inflation through tax cuts and reduced government spending, which may counteract the effects of policies such as tariffs.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31315,\"question_id\":30952}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November 2025 is lower than it was in November 2024, as reported by the St. Louis Fed at the following location: \n\n[Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1C7Aj)\n\nIf the 12-month percentage change in the CPI in November 2025 is greater than or equal to where it was in November 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "At the time of this question, for November 2024 this value is 2.73258 percent.\n\nIn case the graph does not display the 12-month percentage change in the CPI for each month:\n\n1. Click on \"EDIT GRAPH ⚙️\"\n2. Set \"Units:\" to \"Percent Change from Year Ago\"\n3. Set \"Modify frequency:\" to \"Monthly\"", "post_id": 39557, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757885528.000128, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757885528.000128, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.625, 0.375 ], "means": [ 0.4208044138736844 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 17.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-01-10 20:42:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31315). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nInflation [was a top issue](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-harris-inflation-2024/) in the 2024 US presidential election, with Donald Trump saying in his September 10th debate with Kamala Harris, \"We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before. Probably the worst in our nation's history.\" In recent decades, inflation has been as follows:\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1CTp9&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" /> \nTrump has vowed to take a more active role in setting interest rates, [telling](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/18/nx-s1-5076953/should-a-president-have-total-control-over-the-fed-harris-and-trump-disagree) reporters, \"I feel the president should have at least say in there, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.\" \n\nA recent report from Moodys [estimates](https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/site-assets/assessing-the-macroeconomic-consequences-of-harris-vs-trump.pdf) an inflation rate of 3.5% in 2025, \"fueled by the higher tariffs, outflow of foreign immigrants, the resulting tighter labor market and more quickly rising labor costs, and tax-cut-fueled fiscal stimulus.\" On the other hand, some experts [have predicted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/financial-experts-2025-predictions-inflation-120345805.html) that the Department of Government Efficiency could put downward pressure on inflation through tax cuts and reduced government spending, which may counteract the effects of policies such as tariffs.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31315,\"question_id\":30952}}`" }, { "id": 39554, "title": "Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Bluesky 100M users before the end of the year?", "url_title": "Bluesky 100M users before the end of the year?", "slug": "bluesky-100m-users-before-the-end-of-the-year", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:36.326501Z", "published_at": "2025-09-25T07:09:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-25T08:40:00.296020Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:36.662121Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-25T08:39:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-25T08:39:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-25T07:09:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38931, "title": "Will Bluesky reach 100 million users before the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:36.326911Z", "open_time": "2025-09-25T07:09:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-25T08:39:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-25T08:39:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-25T08:39:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-25T08:39:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35563). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nBluesky is a decentralized social network, initially incubated by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey. Its goal is to provide an open alternative to traditional social media platforms.\n\n Bluesky has surpassed 32 million users, according to [ <u>Jazco's Bluesky Stats</u> ](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats), experiencing massive growth since its public launch in February 2024. This surge is partly attributed to users leaving X (Twitter) following changes implemented by Elon Musk; and also to Donald Trump's re-election in November 2024. Reaching 100 million users by the end of the year would represent a significant milestone.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35563,\"question_id\":35014}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, by January 1st, 2026, Bluesky's user count reaches 100 million or more, according to [ <u>Jazco's Bluesky Stats</u> ](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats) or another credible source. If the reported number is below 100 million, the question will be resolved as **No**.", "fine_print": "* If Jazco's Bluesky Stats stops reporting this number and no other credible sources can be found, this question will be **voided**", "post_id": 39554, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758787792.039551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.035 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758787792.039551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.035 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.12525060853823053 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 9.0, 8.0, 8.0, 3.0, 11.0, 2.0, 2.0, 11.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:57:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35563). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nBluesky is a decentralized social network, initially incubated by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey. Its goal is to provide an open alternative to traditional social media platforms.\n\n Bluesky has surpassed 32 million users, according to [ <u>Jazco's Bluesky Stats</u> ](https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats), experiencing massive growth since its public launch in February 2024. This surge is partly attributed to users leaving X (Twitter) following changes implemented by Elon Musk; and also to Donald Trump's re-election in November 2024. Reaching 100 million users by the end of the year would represent a significant milestone.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35563,\"question_id\":35014}}`" }, { "id": 39553, "title": "Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?", "short_title": "US Russia China decrease Nuclear Stockpile July 2025", "url_title": "US Russia China decrease Nuclear Stockpile July 2025", "slug": "us-russia-china-decrease-nuclear-stockpile-july-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:34.838648Z", "published_at": "2025-10-07T06:49:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-07T08:20:00.267895Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:35.741235Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-07T08:19:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-07T08:19:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-07T06:49:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38930, "title": "Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:34.839148Z", "open_time": "2025-10-07T06:49:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-07T08:19:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-07T08:19:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-30T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-07T08:19:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-07T08:19:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-07 03:23:15 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36250). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n> <u>according to </u>[**<u>Reuters</u>**](https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-wants-work-with-russia-china-limiting-nuclear-weapons-2025-02-13/)\n\nThe United States and Russia have expressed mutual interest in resuming discussions on nuclear arms reduction. In February 2025, President Donald Trump announced intentions to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to limit nuclear arsenals, emphasizing the goal of denuclearization during his second term.\n\nThe New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads and their delivery systems, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. While previous efforts to include China in such negotiations have faced challenges, the current U.S. administration aims to revisit the issue, potentially leading to a trilateral meeting.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36250,\"question_id\":35699}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if at least two of the United States, Russia or China reach an agreement to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026. Otherwise this question resolves **NO**.", "fine_print": "The agreement must be a formal treaty, mutual offhand comments will not be sufficient.\n\nThere must be a mutual agreement between at least two of the countries, separate statements or actions will not resolve this question.\n\nAny treaties before April 5th 2025 will not impact this question.\n\nA treaty does not need to be ratified, only being signed is sufficient to resolve this question.", "post_id": 39553, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759822823.617042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.058 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759822823.617042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.058 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17881631599074868 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 5.0, 7.0, 3.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 4.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-04-07 03:23:15 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36250). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n> <u>according to </u>[**<u>Reuters</u>**](https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-he-wants-work-with-russia-china-limiting-nuclear-weapons-2025-02-13/)\n\nThe United States and Russia have expressed mutual interest in resuming discussions on nuclear arms reduction. In February 2025, President Donald Trump announced intentions to engage with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to limit nuclear arsenals, emphasizing the goal of denuclearization during his second term.\n\nThe New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads and their delivery systems, is set to expire on February 5, 2026. While previous efforts to include China in such negotiations have faced challenges, the current U.S. administration aims to revisit the issue, potentially leading to a trilateral meeting.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36250,\"question_id\":35699}}`" }, { "id": 39549, "title": "Will the study of chlorine distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage by the recipients?", "short_title": "Will Chlorine use rise in Sierra Leone study?", "url_title": "Will Chlorine use rise in Sierra Leone study?", "slug": "will-chlorine-use-rise-in-sierra-leone-study", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:32.315994Z", "published_at": "2025-10-05T19:12:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-05T20:43:00.244093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:32.612647Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-05T20:42:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-05T20:42:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-05T19:12:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38926, "title": "Will the study of chlorine distribution in Sierra Leone find a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage by the recipients?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:32.316391Z", "open_time": "2025-10-05T19:12:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-05T20:42:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-05T20:42:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-05T20:42:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-05T20:42:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-10-23 16:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28371). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn May 2024, GiveWell made a [grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#Internal_forecasts) to Wageningen University to add delivery of chlorine for disinfecting drinking water to a bundle of health services that is being delivered door-to-door in Sierra Leone, as part of a cluster-randomized controlled trial. This trial will study whether this distribution of chlorine will lead to a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage:\n\n>The study will be a cluster-randomized [randomized controlled trial] in which the treatment communities receive household-to-household visits from health teams offering routine childhood and HPV vaccines to those who have not received all of the vaccines in the vaccination schedule. Households with children under the age of 5 will also be offered VAS, deworming pills, chlorine to treat drinking water, and ORS/zinc to treat future diarrhea episodes [[1](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote1)] Control communities will not receive any interventions [[2](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote2)] The health teams will also provide information on when young children are due for subsequent vaccines [[3](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote3)] The health teams will return after three months and provide the same bundle of services [[4](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote4)].\n\n>Data on vaccination, VAS, and deworming uptake will be collected at the same time as delivery at both the initial visit and the 3-month follow-up visit, and simultaneously in control communities [[5](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote5)] At the 3-month visit, households will also be asked about use of chlorine and ORS/zinc, and the survey team will test household water for chlorine [[6](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote6)] Chlorine and ORS/zinc usage will be measured just at the 3-month visit, as unlike the other commodities, take-up of these products cannot be measured right away [[7](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote7)] \n\nAs of May 2024, the estimated usage of chlorine in these communities was about 8% and the study is powered to detect a minimum effect size of 5 percentage points. If that increase in chlorine use was achieved, it would mean at least 13% usage in the treatment group. GiveWell's internal forecasting offers a probability of 80% that the study will measure a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage in the treatment group, combined over two rounds of distribution.\n\nAccording to [the grant rationale](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#The_case_for_the_grant), GiveWell has high confidence in the research team and thinks they will be able to achieve the sample size needed to detect effects in chlorine usage. GiveWell’s reservations about the potential outcomes include:\n\n- Recipients may be overwhelmed by the quantity of health services being received in the door-to-door visits and may not process all the instructions.\n- Recipients may view oral rehydration solution and chlorine as substitutes for each other.\n- People in areas with very little contact with health authorities might not react to the health information in ways that researchers would hope.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":28371,\"question_id\":28371}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the GiveWell-funded [study](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024) by Wageningen University and its affiliated research team finds a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage by the treatment group over two rounds of distribution of chlorine to certain household clusters in Sierra Leone, compared with the control group. \n\nIf no statistically significant increase is found, whether because none occurs, there is insufficient data, or the study is not completed before January 1, 2026, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "According to the Yale Research Initiative on Innovation and Scale, the minimal detectable effect for chlorine use is estimated to be very low (5 percentage points; [pdf source](https://files.givewell.org/files/DWDA%202009/YRISE/Givewell_Research_Proposal_on_YRISE_vaccines.pdf), p. 11) for this study, and the current estimate of usage is very low (8%; Ibid., p. 20).\n\nIn assessing the statistical significance in the comparison between the control group and treatment group, please note that the p-value must be < 0.05.\n\nIn case of reporting delays, resolution will wait up to two years after the end of the question period, until December 31, 2027, after which the question will be **annulled** if Metaculus determines there is insufficient evidence to support a **Yes** or **No** resolution.", "post_id": 39549, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759696488.487498, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759696488.487498, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.706100404132805 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 19.0, 1.0, 4.0, 7.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-10-23 16:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28371). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nIn May 2024, GiveWell made a [grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#Internal_forecasts) to Wageningen University to add delivery of chlorine for disinfecting drinking water to a bundle of health services that is being delivered door-to-door in Sierra Leone, as part of a cluster-randomized controlled trial. This trial will study whether this distribution of chlorine will lead to a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage:\n\n>The study will be a cluster-randomized [randomized controlled trial] in which the treatment communities receive household-to-household visits from health teams offering routine childhood and HPV vaccines to those who have not received all of the vaccines in the vaccination schedule. Households with children under the age of 5 will also be offered VAS, deworming pills, chlorine to treat drinking water, and ORS/zinc to treat future diarrhea episodes [[1](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote1)] Control communities will not receive any interventions [[2](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote2)] The health teams will also provide information on when young children are due for subsequent vaccines [[3](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote3)] The health teams will return after three months and provide the same bundle of services [[4](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote4)].\n\n>Data on vaccination, VAS, and deworming uptake will be collected at the same time as delivery at both the initial visit and the 3-month follow-up visit, and simultaneously in control communities [[5](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote5)] At the 3-month visit, households will also be asked about use of chlorine and ORS/zinc, and the survey team will test household water for chlorine [[6](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote6)] Chlorine and ORS/zinc usage will be measured just at the 3-month visit, as unlike the other commodities, take-up of these products cannot be measured right away [[7](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#footnote7)] \n\nAs of May 2024, the estimated usage of chlorine in these communities was about 8% and the study is powered to detect a minimum effect size of 5 percentage points. If that increase in chlorine use was achieved, it would mean at least 13% usage in the treatment group. GiveWell's internal forecasting offers a probability of 80% that the study will measure a statistically significant increase in chlorine usage in the treatment group, combined over two rounds of distribution.\n\nAccording to [the grant rationale](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/wageningen-university-sierra-leone-rct-2024#The_case_for_the_grant), GiveWell has high confidence in the research team and thinks they will be able to achieve the sample size needed to detect effects in chlorine usage. GiveWell’s reservations about the potential outcomes include:\n\n- Recipients may be overwhelmed by the quantity of health services being received in the door-to-door visits and may not process all the instructions.\n- Recipients may view oral rehydration solution and chlorine as substitutes for each other.\n- People in areas with very little contact with health authorities might not react to the health information in ways that researchers would hope.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":28371,\"question_id\":28371}}`" }, { "id": 39548, "title": "Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-break-up-google-before-1-january-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:31.642619Z", "published_at": "2025-10-12T12:56:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-12T14:27:00.201004Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:31.981793Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-12T14:26:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-12T14:26:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-12T12:56:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38925, "title": "Will the US break up Google before 1 January 2026?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:31.643008Z", "open_time": "2025-10-12T12:56:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-12T14:26:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-12T14:26:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-12T14:26:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-12T14:26:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-11-10 02:06:05 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29501). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US break up google?\n\nIn recent years, [Google has come under intense scrutiny from regulators and policymakers in the United States,](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/03/tech-companies-us-eu-battles-00156110)raising questions about whether the tech giant could face a forced breakup. Once celebrated as an innovative pioneer in the internet age, Google’s vast reach and influence now place it at the center of antitrust debates. The company, which dominates global online search, digital advertising, and mobile operating systems through its ownership of Android, is seen by many as holding an outsized share of power over critical digital infrastructure. [Critics argue that Google’s practices have stifled competition, restricted consumer choice, and concentrated control over personal data and information flow.](https://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/amazons-antitrust-paradox)\n\nThe [U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ)](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-google-monopolizing-digital-advertising-technologies) and [several state attorneys general have filed multiple lawsuits against Google in recent years](https://www.njoag.gov/forty-attorneys-general-announce-historic-settlement-with-google-over-location-tracking-practices/), alleging monopolistic behavior in the company’s search and advertising operations. These legal actions contend that Google has abused its market position by prioritizing its own services in search results, restricting rival advertisers, and creating barriers for competing tech firms. [In 2023, Google faced a landmark trial in the DOJ’s largest antitrust case against a tech company in over two decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Google_LLC_(2023)), signaling the government’s seriousness about curbing Google’s power. [In October 2024, the DOJ said in a court filing that it might seek to have Google’s core businesses broken up.](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/09/tech/us-government-considers-a-breakup-of-google/index.html) Lawmakers and advocacy groups argue that a breakup—splitting Google into separate entities for its search, advertising, and other business arms—might be the only effective way to restore competition in the digital market.\n\nWhile Google has defended itself by asserting that its products benefit consumers and enhance competition, the company faces significant obstacles ahead. Its legal battles are likely to drag on for years, and the political climate increasingly favors stricter tech regulations. [Moreover, rising public concerns about privacy, misinformation, and tech monopolies add pressure on the government to take decisive action.](https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/antitrust-action-against-google-may-transform-the-internet/) Although a breakup remains uncertain, the outcome of Google’s ongoing legal challenges could reshape the technology landscape and set a precedent for regulating other tech giants.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29501,\"question_id\":29363}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the U.S. Federal Government mandates structural remedies for Google LLC, commonly referred to as \"break-ups\". These remedies must require Google to divest from, or spin off into separate companies, any of the following divisions:\n\n- Chrome\n- Android OS\n- Pixel phones\n- YouTube\n- Google Ads\n- Google Maps\n- Gmail\n- Google Cloud\n\nFor a **Yes** resolution, the divestiture or separation must be fully completed before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39548, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760278965.689603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760278965.689603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.06621801399387645 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.0, 33.0, 5.0, 10.0, 3.0, 20.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-11-10 02:06:05 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29501). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThis forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US break up google?\n\nIn recent years, [Google has come under intense scrutiny from regulators and policymakers in the United States,](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/03/tech-companies-us-eu-battles-00156110)raising questions about whether the tech giant could face a forced breakup. Once celebrated as an innovative pioneer in the internet age, Google’s vast reach and influence now place it at the center of antitrust debates. The company, which dominates global online search, digital advertising, and mobile operating systems through its ownership of Android, is seen by many as holding an outsized share of power over critical digital infrastructure. [Critics argue that Google’s practices have stifled competition, restricted consumer choice, and concentrated control over personal data and information flow.](https://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/amazons-antitrust-paradox)\n\nThe [U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ)](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-google-monopolizing-digital-advertising-technologies) and [several state attorneys general have filed multiple lawsuits against Google in recent years](https://www.njoag.gov/forty-attorneys-general-announce-historic-settlement-with-google-over-location-tracking-practices/), alleging monopolistic behavior in the company’s search and advertising operations. These legal actions contend that Google has abused its market position by prioritizing its own services in search results, restricting rival advertisers, and creating barriers for competing tech firms. [In 2023, Google faced a landmark trial in the DOJ’s largest antitrust case against a tech company in over two decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Google_LLC_(2023)), signaling the government’s seriousness about curbing Google’s power. [In October 2024, the DOJ said in a court filing that it might seek to have Google’s core businesses broken up.](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/09/tech/us-government-considers-a-breakup-of-google/index.html) Lawmakers and advocacy groups argue that a breakup—splitting Google into separate entities for its search, advertising, and other business arms—might be the only effective way to restore competition in the digital market.\n\nWhile Google has defended itself by asserting that its products benefit consumers and enhance competition, the company faces significant obstacles ahead. Its legal battles are likely to drag on for years, and the political climate increasingly favors stricter tech regulations. [Moreover, rising public concerns about privacy, misinformation, and tech monopolies add pressure on the government to take decisive action.](https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/antitrust-action-against-google-may-transform-the-internet/) Although a breakup remains uncertain, the outcome of Google’s ongoing legal challenges could reshape the technology landscape and set a precedent for regulating other tech giants.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":29501,\"question_id\":29363}}`" }, { "id": 39547, "title": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?", "short_title": "Invasion of Taiwan in 2025?", "url_title": "Invasion of Taiwan in 2025?", "slug": "invasion-of-taiwan-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:31.063152Z", "published_at": "2025-09-23T15:29:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T17:00:00.290090Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:31.377925Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-23T15:29:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38924, "title": "Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:31.063546Z", "open_time": "2025-09-23T15:29:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-23T16:59:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35272). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe People's Republic of China (PRC) officially claims to be the sole legitimate government of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu, while the Republic of China (ROC) currently governs the islands. Tensions between the two sides have persisted since the Chinese Civil War. Although there has been no active conflict since 1979, no formal armistice or peace treaty has been signed.\n\n Recent years have seen increased military activity and diplomatic tensions, with China conducting military exercises near Taiwan and increasing pressure through economic and political means. The United States and allied nations have also expressed support for Taiwanese autonomy, further complicating the geopolitical situation. The possibility of conflict remains a significant global concern, with potential implications for regional stability, global supply chains, and international diplomatic relations.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35272,\"question_id\":34756}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2026, one or both of the following conditions are met:\n\n • (1) Both the Associated Press and The New York Times report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan;\n\n • (2) At least 1,000 People's Liberation Army troops have been deployed in Taiwan with the aim of bringing the sovereignty of the main island under PRC control.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39547, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758646290.664217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0325 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758646290.664217, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0325 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.09950231017586621 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 10.0, 9.0, 9.0, 9.0, 6.0, 3.0, 3.0, 9.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2025-02-27 12:56:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35272). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\nThe People's Republic of China (PRC) officially claims to be the sole legitimate government of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu, while the Republic of China (ROC) currently governs the islands. Tensions between the two sides have persisted since the Chinese Civil War. Although there has been no active conflict since 1979, no formal armistice or peace treaty has been signed.\n\n Recent years have seen increased military activity and diplomatic tensions, with China conducting military exercises near Taiwan and increasing pressure through economic and political means. The United States and allied nations have also expressed support for Taiwanese autonomy, further complicating the geopolitical situation. The possibility of conflict remains a significant global concern, with potential implications for regional stability, global supply chains, and international diplomatic relations.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35272,\"question_id\":34756}}`" }, { "id": 39546, "title": "Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?", "short_title": "Donald Trump positive net favorability on December 20, 2025?", "url_title": "Donald Trump positive net favorability on December 20, 2025?", "slug": "donald-trump-positive-net-favorability-on-december-20-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:30.424894Z", "published_at": "2025-09-29T14:54:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-29T16:25:00.212203Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:30.766010Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-27T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-29T14:54:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T18:21:10.244066Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 38923, "title": "Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?", "created_at": "2025-08-31T05:09:30.425290Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T14:54:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-27T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-29T16:24:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31098). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) increased from -8.6 on November 5, 2024 to -1.9 on December 17, 2024, the highest score of the previous 4 years. Please see 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028). \n\nPresidents frequently go through a \"[honeymoon period](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)\" after they are elected, where they enjoy high approval ratings. However, [there is some evidence](https://news.gallup.com/poll/121391/obama-honeymoon-continues-months-recent-average.aspx) that honeymoon periods have been getting shorter.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31098,\"question_id\":30830}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the net favorability rating of Donald Trump for December 20, 2025 is \"Favorable\" [as reported by 538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/). The resolution will be based on the already-calculated net rating presented by 538.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Trump's rating is classified as \"Favorable\" by 538, even if that rating is 0.0. In case 538 has stopped classifying ratings as \"Favorable\" or \"Unfavorable\" or other equivalent categories (such as Approve/Disapprove), this question will resolve as **Yes** if Trump's Favorable rating is greater than his Unfavorable rating.\n\nThis question will resolve on the first day after December 26, 2025 that an estimate for December 20, 2024 is published on the 538 website. Potential revisions after that will not affect the resolution.\n\nIf no value for December 20, 2025 has been published until January 3, 2026, the closest values will be used to resolve this question, provided that these are for any date after December 13, 2025 and before December 27, 2025.\n\nIn that case, the resolution will be calculated as follows: If there is one, unambiguous closest value (e.g., a value for December 19, 2025 is shown on the site but not one for December 21, 2025), the question will resolve as that. If there are two equidistant closest values, then the question will resolve as their average.", "post_id": 39546, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759162952.411841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759162952.411841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1637149859984694 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 6.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with an identical question on Metaculus. The original question opened on 2024-12-20 21:00:00 and can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31098). This question will resolve to the same value as the synced question. The original question's background info at this time is below. \n\n[FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) increased from -8.6 on November 5, 2024 to -1.9 on December 17, 2024, the highest score of the previous 4 years. Please see 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028). \n\nPresidents frequently go through a \"[honeymoon period](https://politicaldictionary.com/words/honeymoon-period/)\" after they are elected, where they enjoy high approval ratings. However, [there is some evidence](https://news.gallup.com/poll/121391/obama-honeymoon-continues-months-recent-average.aspx) that honeymoon periods have been getting shorter.\n\n***\n\nThis question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31098,\"question_id\":30830}}`" } ] }
