Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=340
{ "count": 5887, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=360", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=320", "results": [ { "id": 38692, "title": "Will New York City hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit before August 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-new-york-city-hit-100-degrees-fahrenheit-before-august-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-24T19:03:36.192383Z", "published_at": "2025-06-24T19:19:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.646553Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-24T19:20:14Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T00:35:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-24T21:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37951, "title": "Will New York City hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit before August 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-24T19:03:36.192816Z", "open_time": "2025-06-24T21:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-26T19:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-26T19:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T00:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-01T00:51:08.170770Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York Times: [Central Park Hits Its Hottest Temperature Since 2012](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/weather/new-york-city-temperatures-heat-today.html) | New York’s official temperature gauge hit 99 degrees on Tuesday afternoon. It could climb even higher.\n\n> A thermometer at Belvedere Castle in Central Park, the official weather station for the city, reached 99 degrees on Tuesday afternoon for the first time since July 18, 2012. The last time the park even hit 98 degrees was several years ago, on June 30, 2021.\n\n> Early in the day, Bryan Ramsey, a meteorologist at the New York office of the National Weather Service, said he thought it was possible Central Park could reach as high as 102 degrees on Tuesday.\n\n> The hottest it has ever reached in Central Park was 106 degrees, on July 9, 1936.\n\n> Just by reaching 97 degrees in the afternoon, Mr. Ramsey said, Central Park had already surpassed a record for the date that had stood since 1888.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after June 24, 2025 and before August 1, 2025, the National Weather Service at its Central Park, NY weather station reports a daily temperature maximum of greater than or equal to 100° Fahrenheit (37.78° Celcius), according to data presented at the [Data Calendar for New York City](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NYC\\&network=NY_ASOS) at Iowa State Mesonet.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38692, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753975069.594523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753975069.594523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.08997560970262827 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.4074873136424424, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 1.2969056086196806, 0.0, 0.7476972517655145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21566899550591478 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -46.012906104552506, "peer_score": 62.299637752986044, "coverage": 0.9989153143328423, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9989153143328423, "spot_peer_score": -34.23580892328059, "spot_baseline_score": -59.94620704162715, "baseline_archived_score": -46.012906104552506, "peer_archived_score": 62.299637752986044, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -34.23580892328059, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -59.94620704162715 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times: [Central Park Hits Its Hottest Temperature Since 2012](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/weather/new-york-city-temperatures-heat-today.html) | New York’s official temperature gauge hit 99 degrees on Tuesday afternoon. It could climb even higher.\n\n> A thermometer at Belvedere Castle in Central Park, the official weather station for the city, reached 99 degrees on Tuesday afternoon for the first time since July 18, 2012. The last time the park even hit 98 degrees was several years ago, on June 30, 2021.\n\n> Early in the day, Bryan Ramsey, a meteorologist at the New York office of the National Weather Service, said he thought it was possible Central Park could reach as high as 102 degrees on Tuesday.\n\n> The hottest it has ever reached in Central Park was 106 degrees, on July 9, 1936.\n\n> Just by reaching 97 degrees in the afternoon, Mr. Ramsey said, Central Park had already surpassed a record for the date that had stood since 1888." }, { "id": 38691, "title": "Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?", "short_title": "Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before Sep 2025?", "slug": "will-israel-strike-the-iranian-military-in-iran-again-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-24T13:33:52.341268Z", "published_at": "2025-06-25T13:32:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.845734Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-25T13:57:12.107255Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T23:35:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-26T13:56:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 180, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:44:28.104335Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:30:16.879926Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37950, "title": "Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-24T13:33:52.341869Z", "open_time": "2025-06-26T13:56:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-27T13:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-27T13:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T23:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T23:37:14.698040Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries.\n\nOn June 24, 2025, Israel and Iran [reached a ceasefire](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdr3yxgjd6ro) mediated by the US. However, soon after the ceasefire took effect, [both countries violated it](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/24/israel-iran-war-live-updates-trump-declares-ceasefire-tehran-attack-us-base-qatar?CMP=share_btn_url\\&page=with%3Ablock-685a87c98f087d712b381a79#block-685a87c98f087d712b381a79). [According to Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/24/israel-iran-war-live-updates-trump-declares-ceasefire-tehran-attack-us-base-qatar?CMP=share_btn_url\\&page=with%3Ablock-685aa14f8f087d712b381bbb#block-685aa14f8f087d712b381bbb)\n\n> The ceasefire was set for 07.00 this morning. At 03.00, Israel forcefully attacked in the heart of Tehran, struck regime targets and eliminated hundreds of Basij and Iranian security forces personnel.\n> \n> Shortly before the ceasefire was due to take effect, Iran launched a barrage of missiles, one of which took the lives of four of our citizens in Be’er Sheva. The ceasefire took effect at 07.00.\n> \n> At 07.06, Iran launched one missile at Israeli territory, and two additional missiles at 10.25. These missiles were either intercepted or fell in open areas, and caused neither casualties nor damage.\n> \n> In response to Iran’s violations, the Air Force destroyed a radar installation near Tehran.\n> \n> Pursuant to the conversation between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israel has refrained from additional attacks.\n> \n> In the conversation, President Trump expressed his great appreciation for Israel, which achieved all of its objectives for the war, as well as his confidence in the stability of the ceasefire.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 25, 2025 and before September 1, 2025, Israel publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against the Iranian military within the geographic territory of Iran.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the Iranian military includes official Iranian military personnel and equipment possessed and operated by Iran. It does not include the personnel or equipment of any groups which may be supported or backed by Iran.\n\nIranian nuclear facilities and the personnel who work there count as military targets. \n\nA public confirmation will be considered one in which an official acting on behalf of the US government makes a statement that satisfies these criteria and does not include anonymous reports or leaks.", "post_id": 38691, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756675071.176756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756675071.176756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.993, 0.007 ], "means": [ 0.020021689949193445 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.543940133936268, 5.629189082923916, 1.7118139238102552, 0.760161962118965, 0.014383527622577691, 0.4157212383512179, 0.0007681975038966764, 0.001339973909817788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0217709135488498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01342045849974612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030346089126182594, 0.00020590647817486253, 0.0, 7.574876012454822e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006665149422321157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022825326475133568, 0.005535430934508947, 0.03520172988382929, 0.0002607312162157457, 0.0, 0.00011462152783887825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004714670427999434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005597118379847278, 0.11985312833448424, 0.0, 0.00172077095989845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03281004141192511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008902690241715132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004135742170104737, 0.02458156521250038, 0.0, 0.08306860206242299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025664378193479144 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.12732943380264, "peer_score": 39.85501436556494, "coverage": 0.9999189918253392, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999189918253392, "spot_peer_score": 0.8566210916859786, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": 61.12732943380264, "peer_archived_score": 39.85501436556494, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.8566210916859786, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1089, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries.\n\nOn June 24, 2025, Israel and Iran [reached a ceasefire](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdr3yxgjd6ro) mediated by the US. However, soon after the ceasefire took effect, [both countries violated it](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/24/israel-iran-war-live-updates-trump-declares-ceasefire-tehran-attack-us-base-qatar?CMP=share_btn_url\\&page=with%3Ablock-685a87c98f087d712b381a79#block-685a87c98f087d712b381a79). [According to Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/24/israel-iran-war-live-updates-trump-declares-ceasefire-tehran-attack-us-base-qatar?CMP=share_btn_url\\&page=with%3Ablock-685aa14f8f087d712b381bbb#block-685aa14f8f087d712b381bbb)\n\n> The ceasefire was set for 07.00 this morning. At 03.00, Israel forcefully attacked in the heart of Tehran, struck regime targets and eliminated hundreds of Basij and Iranian security forces personnel.\n> \n> Shortly before the ceasefire was due to take effect, Iran launched a barrage of missiles, one of which took the lives of four of our citizens in Be’er Sheva. The ceasefire took effect at 07.00.\n> \n> At 07.06, Iran launched one missile at Israeli territory, and two additional missiles at 10.25. These missiles were either intercepted or fell in open areas, and caused neither casualties nor damage.\n> \n> In response to Iran’s violations, the Air Force destroyed a radar installation near Tehran.\n> \n> Pursuant to the conversation between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israel has refrained from additional attacks.\n> \n> In the conversation, President Trump expressed his great appreciation for Israel, which achieved all of its objectives for the war, as well as his confidence in the stability of the ceasefire." }, { "id": 38687, "title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before Sep 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-strike-the-iranian-military-in-iran-again-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-23T18:30:42.853774Z", "published_at": "2025-06-25T12:02:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T13:02:05.893331Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-25T12:02:32.379172Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-26T12:02:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:44:28.104335Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:30:16.879926Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:44:28.104335Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37943, "title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-23T18:30:42.854217Z", "open_time": "2025-06-26T12:02:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-30T12:02:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-30T12:02:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-10T13:02:05.857759Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries.\n\nOn June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq. The Iranian attack came after Trump [warned](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-warned-iran-retaliate-us/story?id=123128251) Iran not to retaliate. However, at the time of the attack, some analysts hypothesized the Iranian response to be an attempt at deescalation, due to Iran warning about the specific targets of the attack in advance, with the US's possible further response unknown. According to the[ New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news):\n\n> Three Iranian officials familiar with the plans said that Iran gave advanced notice that attacks were coming, as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles at an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.\n\n[](mailto:?subject=%3Cstrong%3EUS%20used%20six%20B-2%20bombers%20to%20drop%2012%20%22bunker%20busters%22%20on%20Fordow%2C%20official%20says%3C%2Fstrong%3E\\&body=Checkout%20the%20latest%20news%20from%20CNN%3A%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2Fworld%2Flive-news%2Fisrael-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk%23cmc70nvgj00203b6nlvrp7t6g \"Share with email\")", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after June 23, 2025 and before September 1, 2025, the United States publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against the Iranian military within the geographic territory of Iran.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the Iranian military includes official Iranian military personnel and equipment possessed and operated by Iran. It does not include the personnel or equipment of any groups which may be supported or backed by Iran.\n\nIranian nuclear facilities count as military targets. \n\nA public confirmation will be considered one in which an official acting on behalf of the US government makes a statement that satisfies these criteria and does not include anonymous reports or leaks.", "post_id": 38687, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756638914.975693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756638914.975693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03240210525758211 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.1737160199283614, 5.147669979747837, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.4744202138184597, 0.5824217213843413, 0.05414553402405742, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 78.80464462354442, "peer_score": 36.81762560520588, "coverage": 0.9994497432219762, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994497432219762, "spot_peer_score": 17.397317036132318, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 78.80464462354442, "peer_archived_score": 36.81762560520588, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.397317036132318, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 131, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries.\n\nOn June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq. The Iranian attack came after Trump [warned](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-warned-iran-retaliate-us/story?id=123128251) Iran not to retaliate. However, at the time of the attack, some analysts hypothesized the Iranian response to be an attempt at deescalation, due to Iran warning about the specific targets of the attack in advance, with the US's possible further response unknown. According to the[ New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news):\n\n> Three Iranian officials familiar with the plans said that Iran gave advanced notice that attacks were coming, as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles at an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.\n\n[](mailto:?subject=%3Cstrong%3EUS%20used%20six%20B-2%20bombers%20to%20drop%2012%20%22bunker%20busters%22%20on%20Fordow%2C%20official%20says%3C%2Fstrong%3E\\&body=Checkout%20the%20latest%20news%20from%20CNN%3A%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2Fworld%2Flive-news%2Fisrael-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk%23cmc70nvgj00203b6nlvrp7t6g \"Share with email\")" }, { "id": 38685, "title": "[Short fuse] Will an image of Donald Trump appear on the front page of the New York Times on July 4, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Trump Appear on NYT July 4th Cover?", "url_title": "Will Trump Appear on NYT July 4th Cover?", "slug": "will-trump-appear-on-nyt-july-4th-cover", "author_id": 271410, "author_username": "WasteTimeContinuum", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-23T01:47:26.159192Z", "published_at": "2025-06-23T17:34:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.767515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-23T17:35:34Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-04T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T07:04:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-24T17:34:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37938, "title": "[Short fuse] Will an image of Donald Trump appear on the front page of the New York Times on July 4, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-23T01:47:26.159641Z", "open_time": "2025-06-24T17:34:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-25T17:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-25T17:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T07:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-07T07:05:59.162552Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-04T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The front page of *The New York Times* on Independence Day often serves as a symbolic snapshot of the nation's political and cultural mood. Historically, US presidents, especially during moments of high public interest, are frequently featured on the front page, either through images or headlines that reflect their influence on national affairs. In the case of Donald Trump, media coverage has been particularly polarized and omnipresent, with his image often acting as a lightning rod for both supporters and critics.\n\nThe presence (or absence) of the sitting president on the front page of *The New York Times* on July 4th can be seen as a subtle indicator of how the media, and the public consciousness, are processing his presidency. Trump's unprecedented second term has already seen a flurry of dramatic developments, legal and political battles, and international headlines. This question explores whether that visibility will crystallize into front-page prominence on a symbolically charged day in American media.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if *The New York Times* print front page dated July 4, 2025, includes a clearly identifiable image of Donald Trump. The image may be a photograph, illustration, or other visual depiction, but it must depict Trump himself, not a symbolic or metaphorical stand-in.\n\nIf different editions (New York, National, International) have different covers, any edition with US national circulation will count.", "fine_print": "The front page of The New York Times can be found [here](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper). Select the appropriate date in the *The Times in Print For* box, below \"Todays Paper\" and view the images of the print front page displayed on the side.", "post_id": 38685, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751598226.396783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.588 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751598226.396783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.588 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.6518918722921326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7162969290974602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 1.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -43.27709599309024, "peer_score": 14.74544887276748, "coverage": 0.999494481245858, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999494481245858, "spot_peer_score": 32.03477085264742, "spot_baseline_score": -2.914634565951651, "baseline_archived_score": -43.27709599309024, "peer_archived_score": 14.74544887276748, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.03477085264742, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -2.914634565951651 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The front page of *The New York Times* on Independence Day often serves as a symbolic snapshot of the nation's political and cultural mood. Historically, US presidents, especially during moments of high public interest, are frequently featured on the front page, either through images or headlines that reflect their influence on national affairs. In the case of Donald Trump, media coverage has been particularly polarized and omnipresent, with his image often acting as a lightning rod for both supporters and critics.\n\nThe presence (or absence) of the sitting president on the front page of *The New York Times* on July 4th can be seen as a subtle indicator of how the media, and the public consciousness, are processing his presidency. Trump's unprecedented second term has already seen a flurry of dramatic developments, legal and political battles, and international headlines. This question explores whether that visibility will crystallize into front-page prominence on a symbolically charged day in American media." }, { "id": 38680, "title": "Will the UN Security Council reauthorize the UNIFIL mission at the next UNIFIL review meeting in August?", "short_title": "Will the UN Security Council reauthorize the mandate of the UNIFIL mission?", "url_title": "Will the UN Security Council reauthorize the mandate of the UNIFIL mission?", "slug": "will-the-un-security-council-reauthorize-the-mandate-of-the-unifil-mission", "author_id": 272660, "author_username": "Sitric", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-22T18:13:56.944935Z", "published_at": "2025-06-29T11:13:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.537825Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-29T11:14:32.332558Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-31T18:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T18:11:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T11:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T16:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T11:13:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37912, "title": "Will the UN Security Council reauthorize the UNIFIL mission at the next UNIFIL review meeting in August?", "created_at": "2025-06-22T18:13:56.945479Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T11:13:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-04T11:13:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-04T11:13:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T11:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T16:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T16:15:07.589406Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T18:11:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-31T18:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[UNIFIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Interim_Force_in_Lebanon) was established in 1978 to confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, restore international peace and security, and assist the Lebanese government in restoring its authority. Its mandate is typically renewed annually by the UN Security Council. Renewals often occur at the end of August.\n\nGeopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah, and the interests of key Security Council members (United States), could influence the renewal decision. In recent years, member states have disagreed on the mission's rules of engagement and freedom of movement. Israel is also likely to lobby the USA to veto the mission as part of a wider campaign against the United Nations and other international bodies in the area it sees as being against it.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the UN Security Council passes a resolution before September 2025 that reauthorizes or extends UNIFIL’s mandate.", "fine_print": "The date used for resolution will be based on the official timestamp of the Security Council's adoption of a renewal resolution, as documented in official UN records or major reputable sources.", "post_id": 38680, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753533763.00496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8333333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753533763.00496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8333333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.16666666666666663, 0.8333333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.7417371501354948 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 45.2564251426669, "peer_score": 28.876381803295224, "coverage": 0.9507086503886155, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9507086503886155, "spot_peer_score": 16.146422602812333, "spot_baseline_score": 1.4355292977070055, "baseline_archived_score": 45.2564251426669, "peer_archived_score": 28.876381803295224, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.146422602812333, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 1.4355292977070055 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[UNIFIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Interim_Force_in_Lebanon) was established in 1978 to confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, restore international peace and security, and assist the Lebanese government in restoring its authority. Its mandate is typically renewed annually by the UN Security Council. Renewals often occur at the end of August.\n\nGeopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah, and the interests of key Security Council members (United States), could influence the renewal decision. In recent years, member states have disagreed on the mission's rules of engagement and freedom of movement. Israel is also likely to lobby the USA to veto the mission as part of a wider campaign against the United Nations and other international bodies in the area it sees as being against it." }, { "id": 38679, "title": "Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?", "short_title": "IAEA verifies Iran uranium location before Sep 2025??", "url_title": "IAEA verifies Iran uranium location before Sep 2025??", "slug": "iaea-verifies-iran-uranium-location-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-22T16:30:40.904835Z", "published_at": "2025-07-11T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.702120Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-11T16:07:42.814388Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:53:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37911, "title": "Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-22T16:30:40.905239Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-18T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T01:16:18.602829Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 17, the [International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)](https://www.iaea.org) estimates that Iran has around 409 kilograms (900 pounds) of weapons-grade (enriched) uranium (WGU):\n\n> 27\\. As of 17 May 2025, the Agency has estimated that the total enriched uranium stockpile in the form of UF6 of 8413.3 kg comprised: \\[...] 408.6 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235.\n\n##### [IAEA Board of Governors Report GOV/2025/24](https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-24.pdf)\n\nThe IAEA monitors and verifies Iranian nuclear activity to ensure compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which Iran signed on July 14, 2015. Part of this compliance means that the location of Iran's WGU is to be verified by the IAEA, however in light of the ongoing [Iran-Israel War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Israel_war), whereby several Iranian nuclear sites were hit by Israeli airstrikes, the location of the its WGU stockpile has been unaccounted for by the IAEA:\n\n> As Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites continue, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, says in an interview with Bloomberg that the UN nuclear watchdog cannot currently verify or guarantee the safety or even the whereabouts of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile.\n\n> Asked whether Iran’s supply of 60% enriched uranium remains safely located at the underground Isfahan facility, which Israel has repeatedly struck since it began its campaign on Friday, Grossi replies: “To say safely, I’m not so sure.”\n\n> Some 400 kg of uranium, enough for 10 nuclear warheads, was previously stored under an IAEA seal in Isfahan. “In principle, it is stored there,” he says.\n\n##### Times of Israel: [‘Not so sure’: ](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/amid-strikes-un-nuclear-watchdog-chief-not-so-sure-where-irans-near-weapons-grade-uranium-stockpile-is/)[UN nuclear watchdog chief says can’t verify the safety or whereabouts of Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/amid-strikes-un-nuclear-watchdog-chief-not-so-sure-where-irans-near-weapons-grade-uranium-stockpile-is/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verifies that Iran's stockpile of weapons-grade uranium (uranium enriched up to 60% U-235) is at least 400kg.\n\nIf the IAEA verifies that it is less than 400kg or if it does not publish any new reports on the matter, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38679, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755197755.430425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.012 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755197755.430425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.012 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.012523769954763623 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.649474172019122, 7.2050931542374235, 1.1433074891544697, 1.1970384549509692, 0.03360437583781125, 0.6167334657320084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036464791920768538, 0.035577623642393696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003879090074155018, 0.0016763820783180668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03997326364240643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004075565365447296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009141972722950873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004178148511023217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.02881146068648, "peer_score": 7.142910765575433, "coverage": 0.9999383473608834, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999383473608834, "spot_peer_score": 10.588529015164067, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "baseline_archived_score": 93.02881146068648, "peer_archived_score": 7.142910765575433, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.588529015164067, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 512, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 17, the [International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)](https://www.iaea.org) estimates that Iran has around 409 kilograms (900 pounds) of weapons-grade (enriched) uranium (WGU):\n\n> 27\\. As of 17 May 2025, the Agency has estimated that the total enriched uranium stockpile in the form of UF6 of 8413.3 kg comprised: \\[...] 408.6 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235.\n\n##### [IAEA Board of Governors Report GOV/2025/24](https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-24.pdf)\n\nThe IAEA monitors and verifies Iranian nuclear activity to ensure compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which Iran signed on July 14, 2015. Part of this compliance means that the location of Iran's WGU is to be verified by the IAEA, however in light of the ongoing [Iran-Israel War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Israel_war), whereby several Iranian nuclear sites were hit by Israeli airstrikes, the location of the its WGU stockpile has been unaccounted for by the IAEA:\n\n> As Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites continue, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, says in an interview with Bloomberg that the UN nuclear watchdog cannot currently verify or guarantee the safety or even the whereabouts of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile.\n\n> Asked whether Iran’s supply of 60% enriched uranium remains safely located at the underground Isfahan facility, which Israel has repeatedly struck since it began its campaign on Friday, Grossi replies: “To say safely, I’m not so sure.”\n\n> Some 400 kg of uranium, enough for 10 nuclear warheads, was previously stored under an IAEA seal in Isfahan. “In principle, it is stored there,” he says.\n\n##### Times of Israel: [‘Not so sure’: ](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/amid-strikes-un-nuclear-watchdog-chief-not-so-sure-where-irans-near-weapons-grade-uranium-stockpile-is/)[UN nuclear watchdog chief says can’t verify the safety or whereabouts of Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/amid-strikes-un-nuclear-watchdog-chief-not-so-sure-where-irans-near-weapons-grade-uranium-stockpile-is/)" }, { "id": 38671, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?", "slug": "will-ali-khamenei-cease-to-be-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2025-06-20T21:57:16.852714Z", "published_at": "2025-06-21T00:31:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T19:36:47.232826Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-21T00:31:22.785992Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-21T13:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:44:28.104335Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:44:28.104335Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37895, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-20T21:57:16.853096Z", "open_time": "2025-06-21T13:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-22T13:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-22T13:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n\nOn June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n\nUS President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n\n> We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n\nOn June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.", "fine_print": "To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.\n\nFleeing the country is defined as an indefinite departure from Iran and would also count for a Yes resolution. For example, reports that Khamenei has travelled to another country for medical treatment or a state visit would be considered temporary and would be insufficient. However, a departure in the context of a regime change in Tehran would be considered indefinite and would resolve as Yes. To assess the truth of the matter, Metaculus will consult credible source reporting. As an example, a hypothetical question on Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's [departure from Iran](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/january-16/shah-flees-iran) in 1979 would have resolved as Yes due to the preponderance of reporting, even though Pahlavi did not relinquish his title as Shah.", "post_id": 38671, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757532996.949156, "end_time": 1757759911.774, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.072 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757532996.949156, "end_time": 1757759911.774, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.072 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.15964428319853421 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.14286940660979264, 0.0, 0.6183252296339623, 0.0, 1.3585368122989943, 0.0, 0.11981076312780951, 1.1675445699943534, 0.4146849822354077, 0.0, 3.3007254753137545, 0.0, 0.8554006031583444, 0.9965222446864017, 0.0, 0.3331699648558389, 0.04225147949949812, 0.0, 0.09464378440008571, 0.0, 0.6012637816905227, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988, 0.1998017019265213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.401327957992393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011325021621769293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4789409092720612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30445314579120214 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 219, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n\nOn June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n\nUS President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n\n> We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n\nOn June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign." }, { "id": 38665, "title": "Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?", "slug": "will-zohran-mamdani-be-elected-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-20T17:47:00.406767Z", "published_at": "2025-06-20T20:22:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T09:48:27.957831Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-20T20:23:03.441818Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-20T21:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:30:16.879926Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:30:16.879926Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37886, "title": "Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-20T17:47:00.407193Z", "open_time": "2025-06-20T21:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-20T22:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-20T22:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York City holds its mayoral race on November 4, 2025. The race is expected to be between:\n\n* Zohran Mamdani, if he wins the Democratic nomination or possibly as the candidate of the [Working Families Party](https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/04/wfp-will-not-give-general-election-ballot-line-andrew-cuomo/404264/) if he doesn't.\n* Andrew Cuomo, if he wins the Democratic nomination or as an [independent](https://nypost.com/2025/05/06/us-news/andrew-cuomo-will-run-on-independent-fight-and-deliver-ballot-line-if-he-doesnt-win-nyc-dem-primary/) if he doesn't. \n* Eric Adams, current mayor of NY, elected as a Democrat for his first term but now [running as an independent](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/nyregion/eric-adams-independent-mayor.html). \n* Curtis Sliwa, founder of the [Guardian Angels](https://www.guardianangels.org/) and the Republican candidate.\n\nNYC mayoral polling averages can be found at the [RaceToTheWH.com website](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor of New York City in the [2025 New York City mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_York_City_mayoral_election). ", "fine_print": "This question may resolve as No before the general election if Mamdani loses the Democratic primary and announces he will not run in the general election.", "post_id": 38665, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757552770.322, "end_time": 1757640313.286, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757552770.322, "end_time": 1757640313.286, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8797712875000012 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037861112940804624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052332631715494016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006095433581409484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010217135346786867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011922333154512703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06418622260947618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005009210557615142, 0.0, 0.11324492481884389, 0.0017789123690750252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08590922441201745, 0.769009528437769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.937235265439764, 1.0394903625222331, 1.3755472640041655, 0.026706158979239943, 0.0, 0.3815029447976801, 0.008686660616741733, 0.645834028578039, 0.0, 0.324676118612639, 0.09434453935808916, 1.5099758444835496, 0.28217551895796505, 0.18114731656362004, 1.180837960048171, 0.8963942769374911, 1.8495629316639832, 0.6437677203456756, 0.003195643853332925, 0.004046517214306785, 1.4551575345665368 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 324, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York City holds its mayoral race on November 4, 2025. The race is expected to be between:\n\n* Zohran Mamdani, if he wins the Democratic nomination or possibly as the candidate of the [Working Families Party](https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2025/04/wfp-will-not-give-general-election-ballot-line-andrew-cuomo/404264/) if he doesn't.\n* Andrew Cuomo, if he wins the Democratic nomination or as an [independent](https://nypost.com/2025/05/06/us-news/andrew-cuomo-will-run-on-independent-fight-and-deliver-ballot-line-if-he-doesnt-win-nyc-dem-primary/) if he doesn't. \n* Eric Adams, current mayor of NY, elected as a Democrat for his first term but now [running as an independent](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/nyregion/eric-adams-independent-mayor.html). \n* Curtis Sliwa, founder of the [Guardian Angels](https://www.guardianangels.org/) and the Republican candidate.\n\nNYC mayoral polling averages can be found at the [RaceToTheWH.com website](https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling)." }, { "id": 38662, "title": "Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?", "short_title": "DRC controlling Goma on Aug 25, 2025?", "url_title": "DRC controlling Goma on Aug 25, 2025?", "slug": "drc-controlling-goma-on-aug-25-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-20T02:14:57.010587Z", "published_at": "2025-06-20T17:18:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.369518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-20T17:19:12.997196Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-11T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-11T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T17:36:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-23T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 120, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37883, "title": "Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-20T02:14:57.011007Z", "open_time": "2025-06-23T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-30T17:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-30T17:51:04.983254Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-11T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-11T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of mid-June 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda were in active conflict. The conflict stretches back to the [Rwandan genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide) of 1994, when over a million [Hutus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutu) fled from Rwanda to eastern DRC, including perpetrators of the genocide who continued cross-border attacks. Since then, Rwanda has [repeatedly intervened](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_conflict) militarily in eastern DRC, ostensibly to pursue genocidal forces but also to exploit the region's vast mineral wealth. The strategic city of [Goma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goma), capital of North Kivu province, has been a focal point of these conflicts. Rwanda has consistently backed various rebel groups, most notably the [March 23 Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_23_Movement) (M23), which claims to represent Tutsi interests but operates with significant Rwandan military support and has generated substantial revenue through [illegal mineral exports](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/congo-rebel-gains-boost-illicit-mineral-trade-through-rwanda-analysts-say-2025-01-28/) via Rwanda.\n\nThe conflict [further escalated](https://www.dw.com/en/congo-violence-m23-raw-materials/a-71417304) in 2025, with M23 rebels [capturing Goma](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/risk-of-regional-conflict-following-fall-of-goma-and-m23-offensive-in-the-drc/) in late January, [displacing over 178,000 people](https://apnews.com/article/congo-rebels-m23-displaced-conflict-bdd3579ee7852722a2dbc5aa37c75d62), with M23 also capturing the key supply town of [Minova](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minova) in South Kivu. Rwanda has never admitted that it funded M23, but on June 19, 2025, [reached a peace agreement](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr795jjrnnlo) with DRC, mediated by the US and Qatar. No details of the peace deal, that is expected to be formally signed before the end of June, were reported in the initial announcement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that the March 23 Movement rebels have withdrawn from Goma and the Democratic Republic of the Congo is in control of the city on August 25, 2025.", "fine_print": "If there is any ambiguity, this question will resolve based upon control of Goma International Airport, specifically the coordinates of -1.6584, 29.2400 at 00:00 UTC on August 25, 2025.", "post_id": 38662, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754859759.621662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.018 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754859759.621662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.018 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.982, 0.018 ], "means": [ 0.040695249888475574 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.7518610218819894, 4.781127350844393, 2.9887351591280966, 1.118004250644661, 1.1432915607173186, 0.24119427775992652, 0.2247029106534502, 0.00135283348636685, 1.0093337474096233, 0.22386161709396185, 0.036661618952022884, 0.0055645428502286735, 0.0, 0.0033717487736429743, 0.0, 0.0007481454443624551, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000926134218651555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010802546624598727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011867150809672386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021735444886810887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173597812495387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004519539225959827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17328192541860157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010726889564779733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09414554715751323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02288835798645694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 84.24776940969075, "peer_score": 10.614483539843722, "coverage": 0.99996431075473, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99996431075473, "spot_peer_score": 31.339822510208524, "spot_baseline_score": 35.61438102252753, "baseline_archived_score": 84.24776940969075, "peer_archived_score": 10.614483539843722, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.339822510208524, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 35.61438102252753 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 709, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of mid-June 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda were in active conflict. The conflict stretches back to the [Rwandan genocide](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rwandan_genocide) of 1994, when over a million [Hutus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutu) fled from Rwanda to eastern DRC, including perpetrators of the genocide who continued cross-border attacks. Since then, Rwanda has [repeatedly intervened](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kivu_conflict) militarily in eastern DRC, ostensibly to pursue genocidal forces but also to exploit the region's vast mineral wealth. The strategic city of [Goma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goma), capital of North Kivu province, has been a focal point of these conflicts. Rwanda has consistently backed various rebel groups, most notably the [March 23 Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_23_Movement) (M23), which claims to represent Tutsi interests but operates with significant Rwandan military support and has generated substantial revenue through [illegal mineral exports](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/congo-rebel-gains-boost-illicit-mineral-trade-through-rwanda-analysts-say-2025-01-28/) via Rwanda.\n\nThe conflict [further escalated](https://www.dw.com/en/congo-violence-m23-raw-materials/a-71417304) in 2025, with M23 rebels [capturing Goma](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/risk-of-regional-conflict-following-fall-of-goma-and-m23-offensive-in-the-drc/) in late January, [displacing over 178,000 people](https://apnews.com/article/congo-rebels-m23-displaced-conflict-bdd3579ee7852722a2dbc5aa37c75d62), with M23 also capturing the key supply town of [Minova](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minova) in South Kivu. Rwanda has never admitted that it funded M23, but on June 19, 2025, [reached a peace agreement](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr795jjrnnlo) with DRC, mediated by the US and Qatar. No details of the peace deal, that is expected to be formally signed before the end of June, were reported in the initial announcement." }, { "id": 38661, "title": "Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as DNI before September 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as DNI before September 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-tulsi-gabbard-be-out-as-dni-before-september-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-20T00:42:35.827078Z", "published_at": "2025-06-21T01:22:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.149749Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-21T01:22:51.468903Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:35:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-21T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37882, "title": "Will Tulsi Gabbard depart from her position as Director of National Intelligence before September 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-20T00:42:35.827467Z", "open_time": "2025-06-21T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-23T01:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-23T01:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T13:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T13:36:03.388087Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tulsi Gabbard has served as Director of National Intelligence since February 12, 2025. As DNI, she oversees intelligence agencies such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency. \n\nOn June 10, 2025, Gabbard [tweeted](https://x.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1932368919039459348) a video in which she said: \n\n> A single nuclear weapon today could kill millions in just minutes... As we stand here today, closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, political elites and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers. \n\nAccording to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/17/gabbard-trump-00411685): \n\n> Trump saw the unauthorized video and became incensed, complaining to associates at the White House that she had spoken out of turn, according to three people familiar with the episode — two of them inside the administration and all granted anonymity to describe sensitive dynamics.\n\n> Her post came a few days after Israel hawks [met with Trump at the White House](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/10/iran-trump-maga-hawks-00394820) to lobby him to support Israel’s attacks on Iran. In the eyes of Trump and some close to him, Gabbard was warning him not to greenlight Israel attacking Iran. Trump even expressed his disapproval to her personally, the three people said.\n\n> “I don’t think he dislikes Tulsi as a person … But certainly the video made him not super hot on her … and he doesn’t like it when people are off message,” said one of the people, a senior administration official. The official added that Trump also doesn’t appreciate it when people appear to be correcting him and that “many took that video as trying to correct the administration’s position.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025:\n\n* Tulsi Gabbard ceases to be Director of National Intelligence (DNI) or \n* There is an official announcement that she will cease to be DNI before the end of Donald Trump's presidential term.", "fine_print": "Examples of such announcements include, but are not limited to, Gabbard announcing her resignation or Trump announcing her firing.", "post_id": 38661, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756605118.427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756605118.427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.03929494775282063 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.2690464055783677, 0.362543115534516, 0.4411588324588233, 0.9215675620793167, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 76.77175806350692, "peer_score": 8.789340314387298, "coverage": 0.99653656493407, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99653656493407, "spot_peer_score": 6.5116889929015045, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 76.77175806350692, "peer_archived_score": 8.789340314387298, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.5116889929015045, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tulsi Gabbard has served as Director of National Intelligence since February 12, 2025. As DNI, she oversees intelligence agencies such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the National Security Agency. \n\nOn June 10, 2025, Gabbard [tweeted](https://x.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1932368919039459348) a video in which she said: \n\n> A single nuclear weapon today could kill millions in just minutes... As we stand here today, closer to the brink of nuclear annihilation than ever before, political elites and warmongers are carelessly fomenting fear and tensions between nuclear powers. \n\nAccording to [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/17/gabbard-trump-00411685): \n\n> Trump saw the unauthorized video and became incensed, complaining to associates at the White House that she had spoken out of turn, according to three people familiar with the episode — two of them inside the administration and all granted anonymity to describe sensitive dynamics.\n\n> Her post came a few days after Israel hawks [met with Trump at the White House](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/10/iran-trump-maga-hawks-00394820) to lobby him to support Israel’s attacks on Iran. In the eyes of Trump and some close to him, Gabbard was warning him not to greenlight Israel attacking Iran. Trump even expressed his disapproval to her personally, the three people said.\n\n> “I don’t think he dislikes Tulsi as a person … But certainly the video made him not super hot on her … and he doesn’t like it when people are off message,” said one of the people, a senior administration official. The official added that Trump also doesn’t appreciate it when people appear to be correcting him and that “many took that video as trying to correct the administration’s position.”" }, { "id": 38659, "title": "Will The USDA Release A Gene Drive To Deal With An Agricultural Pest Before Jan 1, 2029?", "short_title": "USDA releases gene drive by 2029?", "url_title": "USDA releases gene drive by 2029?", "slug": "usda-releases-gene-drive-by-2029", "author_id": 270917, "author_username": "Gapetheape", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-19T02:01:53.919732Z", "published_at": "2025-06-19T02:03:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.380109Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-19T02:03:42.995905Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-02T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-08T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-19T02:02:00Z", 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treatments, and assessing the potential use and practicality of additional strains or genetically modified versions of the pest as well as e-beam and other radiation technology for the production of sterile flies.\"\n\nGene edits could mean things besides gene drives, but is an option based on this vague text. ", "resolution_criteria": "The USDA releases a gene drive, that was developed to eliminate a pest like screwworm, on purpose or by accident in the territory of the United States or another country. 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"open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York Times: [Trump’s Iran Choice: Last-Chance Diplomacy or a Bunker-Busting Bomb](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/us/politics/trump-iran-diplomacy-conflict.html)\n\n> President Trump is weighing a critical decision in the four-day-old war between Israel and Iran: whether to enter the fray by helping Israel destroy the deeply buried nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo, which only America’s biggest “bunker buster,” dropped by American B-2 bombers, can reach.\n\n> “Fordo has always been the crux of this thing,” said Brett McGurk, who worked on Middle East issues for four successive American presidents, from George W. Bush to Joseph R. Biden Jr. “If this ends with Fordo still enriching, then it’s not a strategic gain.”\n\n> That has been true for a long time, and over the past two years the U.S. military has refined the operation, under close White House scrutiny. The exercises led to the conclusion that one bomb would not solve the problem; any attack on Fordo would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole. And the operation would have to be executed by an American pilot and crew.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fordow_Fuel_Enrichment_Plant):\n\n> **Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant** (**FFEP**) is an Iranian underground [uranium enrichment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_enrichment \"Uranium enrichment\") facility located 30 kilometres (20 mi) northeast of the Iranian city of [Qom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qom \"Qom\"), at a former [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps \"Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps\") base.The site is under the control of the [Atomic Energy Organization of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_Energy_Organization_of_Iran \"Atomic Energy Organization of Iran\") (AEOI). It is the second Iranian [uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium \"Uranium\") enrichment facility, the other being the [Natanz Nuclear Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natanz_Nuclear_Facility \"Natanz Nuclear Facility\").\n\nIn addition to the US striking the Fordow enrichment facility, there have also been reports of Israel [requesting](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/israel-seeks-us-bunker-buster-14-000-kg-bomb-to-hit-irans-nuclear-sites-8691511) to be supplied with the bunker buster by the US. The Trump Administration is reported to be [considering](https://zamin.uz/en/world/152401-a-warning-signal-from-the-us-to-israel-bunker-bombs-under-discussion.html) the request.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States or Israel launches a direct kinetic attack on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in Iran, either by using a weapon system that has the ability to penetrate the ground deeply enough to significantly degrade and damage the plant or by planting explosives through a ground operation, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "An example of a weapon system that would count is the [GBU-57A/B MOP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP), \n\nAn example of a ground operation that would count is the 2024 [Masyaf commando raid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Masyaf_raid).\n\nAn attack must be kinetic, which for purposes of this question [is defined as](https://defensescoop.com/2023/09/19/how-army-leaders-envision-non-kinetic-capabilities-enabling-traditional-forces/) involving weapons systems such as bombs that physically engage targets. Non-kinetic attacks, such as the [Stuxnet cyber attack](https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-real-story-of-stuxnet) that destroyed centrifuges at a different Iranian facility, will not count for purposes of this question. \n\nThe attack must also be direct, which means physically targeting and making contact with the plant itself. Indirect attacks, such as Israel's June 13, 2025 [attack](https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/post-attack-analysis-of-israels-june-12-13-military-attack-on-irans-nuclear) on the electrical energy supply of Iran's Natanz facility, would not count, even if they result in the destruction of centrifuges or other parts of the Fordow plant.\n\nFor purposes of this question, resolution is based on whether an attack on the FFEP facility has taken place rather than the amount of damage actually inflicted. 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Bush to Joseph R. Biden Jr. “If this ends with Fordo still enriching, then it’s not a strategic gain.”\n\n> That has been true for a long time, and over the past two years the U.S. military has refined the operation, under close White House scrutiny. The exercises led to the conclusion that one bomb would not solve the problem; any attack on Fordo would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole. And the operation would have to be executed by an American pilot and crew.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fordow_Fuel_Enrichment_Plant):\n\n> **Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant** (**FFEP**) is an Iranian underground [uranium enrichment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_enrichment \"Uranium enrichment\") facility located 30 kilometres (20 mi) northeast of the Iranian city of [Qom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qom \"Qom\"), at a former [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps \"Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps\") base.The site is under the control of the [Atomic Energy Organization of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_Energy_Organization_of_Iran \"Atomic Energy Organization of Iran\") (AEOI). It is the second Iranian [uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium \"Uranium\") enrichment facility, the other being the [Natanz Nuclear Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natanz_Nuclear_Facility \"Natanz Nuclear Facility\").\n\nIn addition to the US striking the Fordow enrichment facility, there have also been reports of Israel [requesting](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/israel-seeks-us-bunker-buster-14-000-kg-bomb-to-hit-irans-nuclear-sites-8691511) to be supplied with the bunker buster by the US. The Trump Administration is reported to be [considering](https://zamin.uz/en/world/152401-a-warning-signal-from-the-us-to-israel-bunker-bombs-under-discussion.html) the request." }, { "id": 38646, "title": "Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?", "short_title": "Somaliland recognition pre-Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Somaliland recognition pre-Sep 2025?", "slug": "somaliland-recognition-pre-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-17T08:11:01.179941Z", "published_at": "2025-06-20T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.427538Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-20T16:44:33.834414Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:52:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-23T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37863, "title": "Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-17T08:11:01.180605Z", "open_time": "2025-06-23T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-30T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T00:58:52.528343Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Somaliland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somaliland), officially the Republic of Somaliland, is an unrecognised state in the Horn of Africa. It has exercised de facto independence from Somalia since 1991 and maintains its own government, security forces, and currency.\n\nDuring the 1980s, Somalia faced growing armed opposition to the central government, including in the north, where the [Somali National Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_National_Movement) (SNM) was active. The situation escalated into a [broader civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_Civil_War) by the late 1980s, leading to widespread instability across the country. After the collapse of the Somali government in 1991, SNM leaders and clan representatives in the north held a conference in Burao and declared the independence of Somaliland.\n\nSomaliland has sought international recognition since 1991, maintaining diplomatic outreach to regional and global partners. Ethiopia has been among the most receptive, signing a [memorandum of understanding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ethiopia%E2%80%93Somaliland_memorandum_of_understanding) with Somaliland in January 2024 that included political cooperation and a stated intention to work toward recognition. In August 2024, Ethiopia appointed its first ambassador to the country, though stopped short of formal recognition.\n\nIn recent years, Somaliland has engaged with the United States and Israel to gain international recognition. In early 2025, the US reportedly [considered](https://www.ft.com/content/dca62783-8bfd-404e-92dc-0f1d4e6410f5) recognising Somaliland in exchange for military access to Berbera port, while Israel has discussed establishing a naval base there. Both countries also reportedly [approached](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/14/us-and-israel-look-to-africa-for-resettling-palestinians-uprooted-from-gaza) Somaliland about accepting Palestinians expelled from Gaza. Somaliland's President [claimed in May 2025](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/may/30/exclusive-somaliland-president-says-recognition-of-state-on-the-horizon-following-trump-talks) that \"recognition is on the horizon\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 2025, any country formally recognises Somaliland as a sovereign state.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"country\" is defined as a full member state of the United Nations.", "post_id": 38646, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755202269.096787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.018 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755202269.096787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.018 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.982, 0.018 ], "means": [ 0.038566577814823824 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.5470762584688607, 7.166248056170673, 3.039147927719042, 1.939855443141619, 1.294123349549582, 0.335341222523473, 1.0490657399726484, 0.0, 0.0010606664926521671, 0.20767759095507335, 0.03549923007472378, 0.01382753425254863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005162769561062351, 0.0, 0.1478430754715826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019434189214753161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16752879140593907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00412801400445961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028831904530317756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24106033391707232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002539280627490721 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.66829394012389, "peer_score": 10.480125134647784, "coverage": 0.9999532410294257, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999532410294257, "spot_peer_score": 7.68426170966476, "spot_baseline_score": 74.84612330040356, "baseline_archived_score": 87.66829394012389, "peer_archived_score": 10.480125134647784, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.68426170966476, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 74.84612330040356 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 745, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Somaliland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somaliland), officially the Republic of Somaliland, is an unrecognised state in the Horn of Africa. It has exercised de facto independence from Somalia since 1991 and maintains its own government, security forces, and currency.\n\nDuring the 1980s, Somalia faced growing armed opposition to the central government, including in the north, where the [Somali National Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_National_Movement) (SNM) was active. The situation escalated into a [broader civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_Civil_War) by the late 1980s, leading to widespread instability across the country. After the collapse of the Somali government in 1991, SNM leaders and clan representatives in the north held a conference in Burao and declared the independence of Somaliland.\n\nSomaliland has sought international recognition since 1991, maintaining diplomatic outreach to regional and global partners. Ethiopia has been among the most receptive, signing a [memorandum of understanding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ethiopia%E2%80%93Somaliland_memorandum_of_understanding) with Somaliland in January 2024 that included political cooperation and a stated intention to work toward recognition. In August 2024, Ethiopia appointed its first ambassador to the country, though stopped short of formal recognition.\n\nIn recent years, Somaliland has engaged with the United States and Israel to gain international recognition. In early 2025, the US reportedly [considered](https://www.ft.com/content/dca62783-8bfd-404e-92dc-0f1d4e6410f5) recognising Somaliland in exchange for military access to Berbera port, while Israel has discussed establishing a naval base there. Both countries also reportedly [approached](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/14/us-and-israel-look-to-africa-for-resettling-palestinians-uprooted-from-gaza) Somaliland about accepting Palestinians expelled from Gaza. Somaliland's President [claimed in May 2025](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/may/30/exclusive-somaliland-president-says-recognition-of-state-on-the-horizon-following-trump-talks) that \"recognition is on the horizon\"." }, { "id": 38645, "title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "short_title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "url_title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "slug": "will-the-colorado-rockies-lose-122-or-more-games-in-the-2025-mlb-season", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-17T01:00:21.619814Z", "published_at": "2025-06-17T13:06:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.705088Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-18T01:07:10.252463Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-29T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-06-18T13:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37862, "title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "created_at": "2025-06-17T01:00:21.620272Z", "open_time": "2025-06-18T13:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-23T01:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-23T01:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-29T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "If the Colorado Rockies were to lose 122 games, it would set a new record for most losses in a single season in the modern era of Major League Baseball (1901-present). In the 2024 season, the Chicago White Sox [set the record](https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/white_sox_break_record_for_most_modern_era_losses_in_an_mlb_season/s1_13132_40965583) for most losses in the modern era, at 121. \n\nThe Rockies recently [snapped](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6402664/2025/06/04/rockies-colorado-series-losing-streak-mlb-history/) a record losing streak of 22 straight series losses in the 2025 season.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 Major League Baseball season. \n\nThe Rockies' loss total will be determined by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), in particular accounts of the 2025 season provided by [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). ", "fine_print": "Although teams are expected to play 162 games in the regular season, this question resolves as **No** if the Colorado Rockies have lost fewer than 122 games at the conclusion of the 2025 MLB regular season, regardless of whether games are cancelled or the season is truncated.\n\nThis question also resolves as **No** if it becomes mathematically impossible for the Rockies to lose 122 games.", "post_id": 38645, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756954198.833839, "end_time": 1758982255.73, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756954198.833839, "end_time": 1758982255.73, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.25462399746599357 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.197479062005475, 0.5530210864100233, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "If the Colorado Rockies were to lose 122 games, it would set a new record for most losses in a single season in the modern era of Major League Baseball (1901-present). In the 2024 season, the Chicago White Sox [set the record](https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/white_sox_break_record_for_most_modern_era_losses_in_an_mlb_season/s1_13132_40965583) for most losses in the modern era, at 121. \n\nThe Rockies recently [snapped](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6402664/2025/06/04/rockies-colorado-series-losing-streak-mlb-history/) a record losing streak of 22 straight series losses in the 2025 season.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context." }, { "id": 38640, "title": "Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?", "short_title": "USA gives Israel Bunker Busting Bombs?", "url_title": "USA gives Israel Bunker Busting Bombs?", "slug": "usa-gives-israel-bunker-busting-bombs", "author_id": 270917, "author_username": "Gapetheape", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-16T16:34:58.239256Z", "published_at": "2025-06-18T20:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.320585Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-17T20:41:39.830759Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T07:07:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:44:28.104335Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:44:28.104335Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 37854, "title": "Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-16T16:34:58.239719Z", "open_time": "2025-06-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-20T20:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-20T20:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T07:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-07T07:40:33.866530Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> **\"This Week\" co-anchor Martha Raddatz:** Let's talk about Fordow. It's deep in a mountainside. There are those who do not believe you can destroy Fordow without U.S. help and those bunker-busting bombs. Is it possible without U.S. help?\n\n> **Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel \"Michael\" Leiter:** The help that we've asked from the United States is confined to defensive posture. We're very, very thankful to President Trump and the administration for the THAAD missile, anti-missile defense system, for the Aegis missile defense system, but it's only in a defensive posture. We have a number of contingencies, will -- which will enable us to deal with Fordow. Not everything is a matter of, you know, taking to the skies and bombing from afar.\n\n(source [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-6-15-25-sen-amy-klobuchar/story?id=122854690))", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the United States provides Israel with a bomb capable of penetrating greater than or equal to 60 meters (200 feet) of reinforced concrete or soil, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "An example of a bomb that would count is the [GBU-57A/B MOP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP).", "post_id": 38640, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751335847.783526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751335847.783526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0024127739094572842 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.780394801227438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.1776074273979, "peer_score": 6.164707668398573, "coverage": 0.9996165190696539, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996165190696539, "spot_peer_score": 20.134785849984073, "spot_baseline_score": 91.07326619029126, "baseline_archived_score": 93.1776074273979, "peer_archived_score": 6.164707668398573, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.134785849984073, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 91.07326619029126 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> **\"This Week\" co-anchor Martha Raddatz:** Let's talk about Fordow. It's deep in a mountainside. There are those who do not believe you can destroy Fordow without U.S. help and those bunker-busting bombs. Is it possible without U.S. help?\n\n> **Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel \"Michael\" Leiter:** The help that we've asked from the United States is confined to defensive posture. We're very, very thankful to President Trump and the administration for the THAAD missile, anti-missile defense system, for the Aegis missile defense system, but it's only in a defensive posture. We have a number of contingencies, will -- which will enable us to deal with Fordow. Not everything is a matter of, you know, taking to the skies and bombing from afar.\n\n(source [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-6-15-25-sen-amy-klobuchar/story?id=122854690))" }, { "id": 38639, "title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?", "short_title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military before August 2025?", "url_title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military before August 2025?", "slug": "will-the-united-states-strike-the-iranian-military-before-august-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-16T12:09:52.668440Z", "published_at": "2025-06-16T12:59:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.000128Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-16T13:00:12.006168Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-21T23:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-21T23:36:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-16T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:44:28.104335Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:44:28.104335Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37853, "title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-16T12:09:52.669016Z", "open_time": "2025-06-16T13:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-21T23:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-22T00:38:50.307742Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-21T23:36:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 13, 2025, Israel [launched attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran) on several targets in Iran, including nuclear sites and military installations and killing several top Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists. In response, Iran [launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Israel) missile and drone attacks on Israel, hitting Israeli military and intelligence sites as well as residential areas.\n\nAt the time of this question, the United States has reportedly pushed back on Israeli plans to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/15/politics/us-military-trump-israel-iran), as well as preferring to remain out of the conflict. However, also according to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/16/politics/trump-iran-israel-peace-efforts-g7), Senator Lindsay Graham has urged the Trump Administration to increase its involvement including possible airstrikes:\n\n> \"If diplomacy is not successful, and we are left with the option of force, I would urge President Trump to go all in to make sure that, when this operation is over, there’s nothing left standing in Iran regarding their nuclear program,” Graham, a key Trump ally, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “If that means providing bombs, provide bombs. If that means flying with Israel, fly with Israel.”\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence said:\n\n> And at the end of the day, if Israel needs our help to ensure that the Iranian nuclear program is destroyed once and for all, the United States of America needs to be prepared to do it, because this is about protecting our most cherished ally.\n\nIn an interview Donald Trump conducted with journalist Michael Scherer of The Atlantic on June 15, 2025:\n\n> “Well, considering that I’m the one that developed ‘America first,’ and considering that the term wasn’t used until I came along, I think I’m the one that decides that,” Trump told Scherer. “For those people who say they want peace — you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon — that’s not peace.”\n\nAt the time of this question, there have additionally been reports about the US government's possible [willingness](https://news.antiwar.com/2025/06/15/sources-us-will-enter-israels-war-with-iran/) to engage in airstrikes against Iran, aerial refueling aircraft [flying east](https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1934527953276153915) from the continental United States, and warships such as the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier [sailing toward](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2025/06/13/us-shifts-warships-in-mideast-in-response-to-israel-strikes/) the Middle East.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after June 15, 2025, and before August 1, 2025, the United States publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against Iranian military targets within the geographic territory of Iran.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the Iranian military includes official Iranian military personnel and equipment possessed and operated by Iran. It does not include the personnel or equipment of any groups which may be supported or backed by Iran.\n\nA public confirmation will be considered one in which an official acting on behalf of the US government makes a statement that satisfies these criteria and does not include anonymous reports or leaks.\n\nIranian nuclear facilities count as military targets. ", "post_id": 38639, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750547934.824875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750547934.824875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6878908030697872 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29683892709897775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.580786524139737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7046361910978625, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3281571942330128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061894126969327355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.317094813595444, 0.008376459204076786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030815271309911525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3862084272492791, 0.16824568062905945, 0.5571555304661313, 0.3542447088992047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3851824321831507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9506826038531881, 0.11083038735431396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8918017352343615, 0.031250959703169254, 0.07000249760431822, 0.015977422099957932, 0.0, 0.5102560667925836, 0.15994448578790318, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8005606629953514, 0.0, 0.01917969985736262, 0.0, 0.27114422392158133, 0.03621693803772868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047802726739546664 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 6.75778188615732, "peer_score": 0.8340042592243979, "coverage": 0.11813847109178172, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9902382991974475, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 6.75778188615732, "peer_archived_score": 0.8340042592243979, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 149, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 13, 2025, Israel [launched attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran) on several targets in Iran, including nuclear sites and military installations and killing several top Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists. In response, Iran [launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Israel) missile and drone attacks on Israel, hitting Israeli military and intelligence sites as well as residential areas.\n\nAt the time of this question, the United States has reportedly pushed back on Israeli plans to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/15/politics/us-military-trump-israel-iran), as well as preferring to remain out of the conflict. However, also according to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/16/politics/trump-iran-israel-peace-efforts-g7), Senator Lindsay Graham has urged the Trump Administration to increase its involvement including possible airstrikes:\n\n> \"If diplomacy is not successful, and we are left with the option of force, I would urge President Trump to go all in to make sure that, when this operation is over, there’s nothing left standing in Iran regarding their nuclear program,” Graham, a key Trump ally, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “If that means providing bombs, provide bombs. If that means flying with Israel, fly with Israel.”\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence said:\n\n> And at the end of the day, if Israel needs our help to ensure that the Iranian nuclear program is destroyed once and for all, the United States of America needs to be prepared to do it, because this is about protecting our most cherished ally.\n\nIn an interview Donald Trump conducted with journalist Michael Scherer of The Atlantic on June 15, 2025:\n\n> “Well, considering that I’m the one that developed ‘America first,’ and considering that the term wasn’t used until I came along, I think I’m the one that decides that,” Trump told Scherer. “For those people who say they want peace — you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon — that’s not peace.”\n\nAt the time of this question, there have additionally been reports about the US government's possible [willingness](https://news.antiwar.com/2025/06/15/sources-us-will-enter-israels-war-with-iran/) to engage in airstrikes against Iran, aerial refueling aircraft [flying east](https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1934527953276153915) from the continental United States, and warships such as the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier [sailing toward](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2025/06/13/us-shifts-warships-in-mideast-in-response-to-israel-strikes/) the Middle East." }, { "id": 38633, "title": "Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ali Khamenei make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ali Khamenei make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?", "slug": "will-ali-khamenei-make-a-public-appearance-in-iran-before-july-14-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-14T19:11:16.373391Z", "published_at": "2025-06-14T20:07:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.855277Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-14T20:08:27Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-05T15:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-11T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-05T15:45:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-14T20:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 156, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T08:44:28.104335Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": 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"", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 13, 2025, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) [struck](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran) several targets in Iran, including the private residences of several of Iran's top leaders. In the wake of the strikes, rumors arose that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had [been killed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-khamenei-is-alive-security-source-tells-reuters-2025-06-13/) or had [fled the country](https://x.com/The_Real_ITDUDE/status/1933923628904853857?t=zLFB8cSLHXaZRi_SmcuzyA\\&s=19).\n\nSome recent public appearances of Khamenei are:\n\n* June 4, 2025 delivering live televised remarks from the mausoleum of Ruhollah Khomeini, the former supreme leader of Iran. ([Tasnim News Agency](https://www.eurasiareview.com/05062025-in-fiery-televised-speach-ayatollah-khamenei-dismisses-us-plan-reasserts-irans-right-to-enrichment/))\n* May 20, 2025 speaking at the one-year anniversary of former President Ebrahim Raisi's death. ([National Council of Resistance of Iran](https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/khameneis-hardline-stance-on-nuclear-program-exposes-deepening-instability-in-irans-regime/))\n* May 12, 2025 meeting in Tehran with members of the National Conference in Commemoration of Martyred Aid Workers ([Iran Daily](https://newspaper.irandaily.ir/7832/8/15390))\n* May 10, 2025 meeting with a group of labor leaders ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512880/Minds-must-not-be-diverted-from-Palestine-Leader))\n* May 4, 2025 meeting with Iranian officials overseeing Hajj pilgrimage ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512618/Leader-Nothing-more-beneficial-for-Islamic-world-than-unity))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 14, 2025 and before July 14, 2025, Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei makes a public appearance within the geographic territory of Iran, according to <u>c</u>[<u>redible source</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting.\n\nIf this has not occurred during the period in question, then this question will resolve as **No**. It will additionally resolve as **No** if Khamenei dies or permanently resigns from the position of Supreme Leader before July 14, 2025.", "fine_print": "A public appearance is defined as Khamenei presenting himself in front of an audience.\n\nA television address would count, as long as it is credibly reported that Khamenei has made the address from within Iran. It would count even if it was pre-recorded, as long as there is credible evidence that it was recorded from within Iran in the relevant time period.", "post_id": 38633, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751729805.949188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751729805.949188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2659314338333779 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16090580356074474, 0.19275978708881347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.784846217452747, 0.25671994647453994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3655598090769043, 0.0, 0.24668123105594594, 0.020591683781788054, 0.6123617123286828, 0.31163789150775084, 0.2462159879881697, 1.7553217278089648, 0.582275501896683, 1.015708988999516, 0.1591383639163003, 2.2397119808514216, 1.7573810211542726, 0.9027546891530904, 0.0, 0.2240167173441031, 0.0, 0.4931854095622603, 0.5287235467291957, 0.5535248082704115, 0.7897867294796221, 0.0, 1.0955267124638732, 0.09382684663478094, 0.010843095881615717, 0.002724718614387186, 0.005278284780573776, 0.13792324915068002, 0.738978031925676, 0.025784634518108276, 0.005806345621716643, 0.016313681154631558, 0.5336654101566651, 0.0, 0.03205485872214182, 0.0, 0.0005871052169841407, 0.2645108706225655, 0.004789702417281179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3760402883750461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04541843129948949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023942442062986697, 0.0004119719893889613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009338405106678075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004945415509891084, 0.0003385574481498503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8653817434275857, 0.0, 0.012809810214353387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016910023390508207, 0.0, 0.499817541528374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003537004892243706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38539999791747515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -38.56429201130662, "peer_score": 10.402455571413254, "coverage": 0.7911142300765774, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9989549160433168, "spot_peer_score": 26.471959513998996, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433588, "baseline_archived_score": -38.56429201130662, "peer_archived_score": 10.402455571413254, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.471959513998996, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433588 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 970, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 13, 2025, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) [struck](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran) several targets in Iran, including the private residences of several of Iran's top leaders. In the wake of the strikes, rumors arose that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had [been killed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-khamenei-is-alive-security-source-tells-reuters-2025-06-13/) or had [fled the country](https://x.com/The_Real_ITDUDE/status/1933923628904853857?t=zLFB8cSLHXaZRi_SmcuzyA\\&s=19).\n\nSome recent public appearances of Khamenei are:\n\n* June 4, 2025 delivering live televised remarks from the mausoleum of Ruhollah Khomeini, the former supreme leader of Iran. ([Tasnim News Agency](https://www.eurasiareview.com/05062025-in-fiery-televised-speach-ayatollah-khamenei-dismisses-us-plan-reasserts-irans-right-to-enrichment/))\n* May 20, 2025 speaking at the one-year anniversary of former President Ebrahim Raisi's death. ([National Council of Resistance of Iran](https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/khameneis-hardline-stance-on-nuclear-program-exposes-deepening-instability-in-irans-regime/))\n* May 12, 2025 meeting in Tehran with members of the National Conference in Commemoration of Martyred Aid Workers ([Iran Daily](https://newspaper.irandaily.ir/7832/8/15390))\n* May 10, 2025 meeting with a group of labor leaders ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512880/Minds-must-not-be-diverted-from-Palestine-Leader))\n* May 4, 2025 meeting with Iranian officials overseeing Hajj pilgrimage ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512618/Leader-Nothing-more-beneficial-for-Islamic-world-than-unity))" }, { "id": 38621, "title": "[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "short-fuse-will-4-million-or-more-people-participate-in-no-kings-rallies-in-the-united-states-on-june-14-2025", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-13T00:47:54.714782Z", "published_at": "2025-06-13T13:15:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.377868Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-13T13:15:55.821999Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-16T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:26:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-13T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37844, "title": "[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-13T00:47:54.715377Z", "open_time": "2025-06-13T13:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-16T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-18T17:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-18T17:38:07.292931Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In response to [Trump’s planned June 14 military parade](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-military-parade-army-anniversary-event/story?id=122746696) in Washington, D.C. -- timed to coincide with his birthday, Flag Day, and the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary -- more than [1,500 'No Kings' rallies](https://www.newsweek.com/map-list-cities-protests-trump-june-14-2081284) have been organized across the United States, with some [solidarity actions planned abroad](https://www.democratsabroad.org/maxdunitz/no_kings_day_-_paris). The protests are framed as a rejection of authoritarianism, political strongmen, and the consolidation of power through patriotic spectacle. Organizers include groups like [50501](https://www.fiftyfifty.one/) and [Indivisible](https://indivisible.org). \n\nThe scale of mobilization and the political context creates real uncertainty. Law enforcement responses vary by city, and some areas are [deploying National Guard units](https://www.inquirer.com/news/nation-world/texas-governor-abbott-national-guard-no-kings-protests-trump-20250612.html). \n\nAn estimated 3,300,000 – 4,600,000 people participated in the United States in the [2017 Women's March](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Women%27s_March#Participation).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the estimated total number of individuals who attend or participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025 (local time in each location) is equal or greater than 4 million, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* If a range is given, then this question will resolve as **Yes** if the midpoint is equal or greater than 4 million.\n* If the consensus of credible sources is that the protests gathered \"approximately 4 million people\" or a similar phrasing, this will resolve as **Yes**. If**** it is \"almost 4 million people\" or similar, it will resolve as **No.**", "post_id": 38621, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749980244.352719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749980244.352719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8765557889639407 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32641115645704466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4693931037726216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.4177035342880956, 0.44676729678567373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6422742015709613 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.72899308253721, "peer_score": 7.970049339647598, "coverage": 0.8879490327893306, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8879490327893306, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 56.72899308253721, "peer_archived_score": 7.970049339647598, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In response to [Trump’s planned June 14 military parade](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-military-parade-army-anniversary-event/story?id=122746696) in Washington, D.C. -- timed to coincide with his birthday, Flag Day, and the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary -- more than [1,500 'No Kings' rallies](https://www.newsweek.com/map-list-cities-protests-trump-june-14-2081284) have been organized across the United States, with some [solidarity actions planned abroad](https://www.democratsabroad.org/maxdunitz/no_kings_day_-_paris). The protests are framed as a rejection of authoritarianism, political strongmen, and the consolidation of power through patriotic spectacle. Organizers include groups like [50501](https://www.fiftyfifty.one/) and [Indivisible](https://indivisible.org). \n\nThe scale of mobilization and the political context creates real uncertainty. Law enforcement responses vary by city, and some areas are [deploying National Guard units](https://www.inquirer.com/news/nation-world/texas-governor-abbott-national-guard-no-kings-protests-trump-20250612.html). \n\nAn estimated 3,300,000 – 4,600,000 people participated in the United States in the [2017 Women's March](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Women%27s_March#Participation)." }, { "id": 38617, "title": "Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?", "short_title": "Will Iran carry out an attack with 3 dead within Israel before Aug 2025?", "url_title": "Will Iran carry out an attack with 3 dead within Israel before Aug 2025?", "slug": "will-iran-carry-out-an-attack-with-3-dead-within-israel-before-aug-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:24:30.329800Z", "published_at": "2025-06-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.155231Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Summer 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-summer-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-10T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T21:54:20.186513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37839, "title": "Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:24:30.330262Z", "open_time": "2025-06-13T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-14T05:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-14T19:13:41.504459Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-14T05:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to a [CBS article from June 12, 2025](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/):\n\n> U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.\n> \n> The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday. The State Department [ordered](https://x.com/travelgov/status/1932955237578391817?s=12) non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to \"heightened regional tensions,\" and the Pentagon has authorized military family members to voluntarily leave locations throughout the Middle East, a defense official told CBS News.\n> \n> President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 11, 2025 and before August 1, 2025, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least three individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:\n\n1. Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n4. The threshold of three fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 38617, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749873024.604567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749873024.604567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5566413935370977 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.670104975249027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4331829240426629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1758133787111316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4790788822584277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.9715769570268549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.3126445676133395 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.28066101848424463, "peer_score": -0.005083674547591281, "coverage": 0.010565913005479058, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9796714538680182, "spot_peer_score": -39.757210449638976, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.28066101848424463, "peer_archived_score": -0.005083674547591281, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -39.757210449638976, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to a [CBS article from June 12, 2025](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/):\n\n> U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.\n> \n> The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday. The State Department [ordered](https://x.com/travelgov/status/1932955237578391817?s=12) non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to \"heightened regional tensions,\" and the Pentagon has authorized military family members to voluntarily leave locations throughout the Middle East, a defense official told CBS News.\n> \n> President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said." } ] }
