Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3400
{ "count": 6369, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3420", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3380", "results": [ { "id": 19442, "title": "Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?", "short_title": "Peter Bone Suspension in 2023?", "url_title": "Peter Bone Suspension in 2023?", "slug": "peter-bone-suspension-in-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-16T12:03:54.880429Z", "published_at": "2023-10-19T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.796903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-19T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-19T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19442, "title": "Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?", "created_at": "2023-10-16T12:03:54.880429Z", "open_time": "2023-10-19T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-22T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-22T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-25T17:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Peter Bone, a British Conservative Party politician, served as Deputy Leader of the House of Commons in 2022 and has been representing Wellingborough as an MP since 2005. On 16 October 2023, he was recommended for suspension from the House of Commons by the [Independent Expert Panel](https://rb.gy/ddpkb) for multiple acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct against a staff member in 2012 and 2013. For the full report, see [here](https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/mps-lords--offices/standards-and-financial-interests/independent-expert-panel/hc-1904---the-conduct-of-mr-peter-bone-mp.pdf). \n\nThe recommendation of the panel is a suspension of 6 weeks: \n\n> This is a serious case of misconduct. […] The bullying involved violence, shouting and swearing, mocking, belittling and humiliating behaviour, and ostracism. […]\n\n> This wilful pattern of bullying also included an unwanted incident of sexual misconduct, when the complainant was trapped in a room with the respondent in a hotel in Madrid, […]. This was a deliberate and conscious abuse of power using a sexual mechanism: indecent exposure.\n\nThis suspension, if approved, will trigger the Recall of MPs Act 2015, initiating a recall petition in Bone's constituency which, if signed by 10% of the electorate within six weeks, will lead to a by-election due to the seat being declared vacant.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes**, if Peter Bone MP is suspended from Parliament for any reason before January 1, 2024, as reported by credible sources.", "fine_print": "* A suspension for any length of time is sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.\n* Removal from a party or other duties does not qualify, only being suspended as a MP from the House of Commons is sufficient.\n* If Peter Bone resigns from the House of Commons before he is suspended this question will resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 19442, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698256285.540661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7944977086401068 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698256285.540661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7944977086401068 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8590656600756699 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016810815496895358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014505757420011789, 0.0, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1744025108627094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32034173754887335, 0.05144413896398135, 0.0, 0.04606515460131248, 0.0, 0.06367247509170942, 0.16442976034727774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2936757196039515, 0.43198306302127876, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.0, 0.48263618116055984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41551266136447684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7126735024003407, 0.0, 0.06902058982287625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12585700968552796, 0.3546641551680529, 0.0, 0.2712168925010875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9180534657497312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7635897992428782, 0.0, 1.2817837613587226, 0.0, 0.6647089477243179, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0765292801747592, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6235958674839122, 3.2471701356801224 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.2902563003237597, "coverage": 0.08441258647222366, "baseline_score": 2.6427556457949826, "spot_peer_score": 11.417243684005445, "peer_archived_score": 1.2902563003237597, "baseline_archived_score": 2.6427556457949826, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.417243684005445 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698254871.219216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698254871.219216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17260203319456002, 0.82739796680544 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 193, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Peter Bone, a British Conservative Party politician, served as Deputy Leader of the House of Commons in 2022 and has been representing Wellingborough as an MP since 2005. On 16 October 2023, he was recommended for suspension from the House of Commons by the [Independent Expert Panel](https://rb.gy/ddpkb) for multiple acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct against a staff member in 2012 and 2013. For the full report, see [here](https://www.parliament.uk/globalassets/mps-lords--offices/standards-and-financial-interests/independent-expert-panel/hc-1904---the-conduct-of-mr-peter-bone-mp.pdf). \n\nThe recommendation of the panel is a suspension of 6 weeks: \n\n> This is a serious case of misconduct. […] The bullying involved violence, shouting and swearing, mocking, belittling and humiliating behaviour, and ostracism. […]\n\n> This wilful pattern of bullying also included an unwanted incident of sexual misconduct, when the complainant was trapped in a room with the respondent in a hotel in Madrid, […]. This was a deliberate and conscious abuse of power using a sexual mechanism: indecent exposure.\n\nThis suspension, if approved, will trigger the Recall of MPs Act 2015, initiating a recall petition in Bone's constituency which, if signed by 10% of the electorate within six weeks, will lead to a by-election due to the seat being declared vacant." }, { "id": 19408, "title": "Will Cooper Flagg make the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame before 2060?", "short_title": "Cooper Flagg HOF 2060", "url_title": "Cooper Flagg HOF 2060", "slug": "cooper-flagg-hof-2060", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-15T15:53:17.400892Z", "published_at": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-02T07:33:17.294968Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19408, "title": "Will Cooper Flagg make the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame before 2060?", "created_at": "2023-10-15T15:53:17.400892Z", "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T00:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T00:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2060-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/250591/cooper-flagg) and [247Sports](https://247sports.com/Player/Cooper-Flagg-46129443/), Cooper Flagg is the highest ranked basketball recruit in the United States. [He was the youngest player to ever win the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year in 2022.](https://www.si.com/college/duke/recruiting/duke-basketball-recruiting-target-national-honor) [Fansided](https://hoopshabit.com/2023/09/03/meet-cooper-flagg-best-american-prospect/) even made the bold claim that Flagg is the best American recruit since LeBron James, and [the King himself is known to be following Flagg's career.](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nba/who-is-cooper-flagg-meet-the-next-great-nba-draft-prospect/3087165/)\n\nHowever, [others are skeptical](https://youtu.be/nAyv_M_t9og) of putting much stock into high school players. There have been many players hyped up in high school that failed to even become NBA All-Stars such as OJ Mayo, Greg Oden and Kwame Brown.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces Cooper Flagg's induction before January 1, 2060. Otherwise, it will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "If the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame or the NBA ceases to exist before 2060, or if Cooper Flagg passes away before he plays seven NBA seasons, this question will be annulled. If Cooper Flagg goes undrafted for any reason, this question will resolve as No.", "post_id": 19408, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759390386.172349, "end_time": 1787693801.01, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759390386.172349, "end_time": 1787693801.01, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3743252930380813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9839306814079684, 0.0, 0.7972830703873104, 0.0, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.17886107948508886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287383.214337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287383.214337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8974260392969641, 0.10257396070303595 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/college-sports/basketball/recruiting/player/_/id/250591/cooper-flagg) and [247Sports](https://247sports.com/Player/Cooper-Flagg-46129443/), Cooper Flagg is the highest ranked basketball recruit in the United States. [He was the youngest player to ever win the USA Basketball Male Athlete of the Year in 2022.](https://www.si.com/college/duke/recruiting/duke-basketball-recruiting-target-national-honor) [Fansided](https://hoopshabit.com/2023/09/03/meet-cooper-flagg-best-american-prospect/) even made the bold claim that Flagg is the best American recruit since LeBron James, and [the King himself is known to be following Flagg's career.](https://www.nbcboston.com/news/sports/nba/who-is-cooper-flagg-meet-the-next-great-nba-draft-prospect/3087165/)\n\nHowever, [others are skeptical](https://youtu.be/nAyv_M_t9og) of putting much stock into high school players. There have been many players hyped up in high school that failed to even become NBA All-Stars such as OJ Mayo, Greg Oden and Kwame Brown." }, { "id": 19406, "title": "Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?", "short_title": "2023 Booker Prize", "url_title": "2023 Booker Prize", "slug": "2023-booker-prize", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-15T13:32:36.055812Z", "published_at": "2023-11-09T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.666551Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-09T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-11-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-27T04:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-27T04:18:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-09T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19406, "title": "Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?", "created_at": "2023-10-15T13:32:36.055812Z", "open_time": "2023-11-09T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-11T08:42:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-11T08:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-27T04:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-11-27T04:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-11-27T04:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-11-25T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Booker Prize](https://thebookerprizes.com/the-booker-library/prize-years/2023) is an annual literary award for the best English-language novel published in the UK and Ireland. Established in 1969, it comes with a £50,000 prize and is selected by a five-person expert panel. The award has broad cultural impact, often boosting the winner's book sales. \n\nThis year, the winner will be announced at an event at Old Billingsgate, London, on November 26, 2023. The short-listed books and authors are as follows. \n\n\n| Book Title | Author | Summary |\n|----------------------|-------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| The Bee Sting | Paul Murray | A patch of ice on the road, a casual favour to a charming stranger, a bee caught beneath a bridal veil – can a single moment of bad luck change the direction of a life? |\n| Western Lane | Chetna Maroo | Chetna Maroo's tender and moving debut novel about grief, sisterhood, a teenage girl's struggle to transcend herself – and squash. |\n| Prophet Song | Paul Lynch | A mother faces a terrible choice, in Paul Lynch’s exhilarating, propulsive and confrontational portrait of a society on the brink. |\n| This Other Eden | Paul Harding | Full of lyricism and power, Paul Harding's spellbinding novel celebrates the hopes, dreams and resilience of those deemed not to fit in a world brutally intolerant of difference. |\n| If I Survive You | Jonathan Escoffery | An exhilarating novel-in-stories that pulses with style, heart and barbed humour, while unravelling what it means to carve out an existence between cultures, homes and pay cheques. |\n| Study for Obedience | Sarah Bernstein | In her accomplished and unsettling second novel, Sarah Bernstein explores themes of prejudice, abuse and guilt through the eyes of a singularly unreliable narrator. |\n\nFor the first time in eight years, the shortlist for the Booker prize is [male dominated](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/sep/21/booker-shortlist-2023-just-one-british-writer-chetna-maroo), with two out of the four authors being women. Moreover, the past three prizes (2020, 2021, and 2022) have all been [won by men too](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booker_Prize).\n\nAs the [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/sep/21/booker-shortlist-2023-just-one-british-writer-chetna-maroo) reports:\n\n\"Commenting on the fact that more men appear on the list than in recent years, Edugyan said that “it’s the strength and the quality of the work that landed these writers” on the shortlist. Her fellow judge, the actor Robert Webb, joked that “it was very much the work that we were concentrating on rather than whether or not they were called Paul”.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize as announced by [The Booker Prizes](https://thebookerprizes.com/the-booker-library/prize-years/2023). \n\nIf either of them share the prize with any other author, this question will resolve as **Yes** too.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700893674.843248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700893674.843248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.2852865467263183 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.23434107129204243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28045304072399985, 0.0, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019678999436820003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4658976858118918, 0.0, 2.108681459977303, 0.5049957670217226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8910158619750768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8598612854256853, 0.0, 0.6465476867609057, 0.041314330922520195, 0.03130111324493289, 2.509562153495021, 0.10935757069316196, 1.6690060432147045, 0.0, 0.21373070951070156, 0.08577160466054211, 0.0, 0.24725458489859575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011348003115516677, 0.07658881074466624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3337872932516758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.8031413812481112, "coverage": 0.9994501864729187, "baseline_score": 43.196313276764094, "spot_peer_score": 4.766226159297424, "peer_archived_score": 0.8031413812481112, "baseline_archived_score": 43.196313276764094, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.766226159297424 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1700898452.793491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1700898452.793491, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8525399382041705, 0.14746006179582946 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Booker Prize](https://thebookerprizes.com/the-booker-library/prize-years/2023) is an annual literary award for the best English-language novel published in the UK and Ireland. Established in 1969, it comes with a £50,000 prize and is selected by a five-person expert panel. The award has broad cultural impact, often boosting the winner's book sales. \n\nThis year, the winner will be announced at an event at Old Billingsgate, London, on November 26, 2023. The short-listed books and authors are as follows. \n\n\n| Book Title | Author | Summary |\n|----------------------|-------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|\n| The Bee Sting | Paul Murray | A patch of ice on the road, a casual favour to a charming stranger, a bee caught beneath a bridal veil – can a single moment of bad luck change the direction of a life? |\n| Western Lane | Chetna Maroo | Chetna Maroo's tender and moving debut novel about grief, sisterhood, a teenage girl's struggle to transcend herself – and squash. |\n| Prophet Song | Paul Lynch | A mother faces a terrible choice, in Paul Lynch’s exhilarating, propulsive and confrontational portrait of a society on the brink. |\n| This Other Eden | Paul Harding | Full of lyricism and power, Paul Harding's spellbinding novel celebrates the hopes, dreams and resilience of those deemed not to fit in a world brutally intolerant of difference. |\n| If I Survive You | Jonathan Escoffery | An exhilarating novel-in-stories that pulses with style, heart and barbed humour, while unravelling what it means to carve out an existence between cultures, homes and pay cheques. |\n| Study for Obedience | Sarah Bernstein | In her accomplished and unsettling second novel, Sarah Bernstein explores themes of prejudice, abuse and guilt through the eyes of a singularly unreliable narrator. |\n\nFor the first time in eight years, the shortlist for the Booker prize is [male dominated](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/sep/21/booker-shortlist-2023-just-one-british-writer-chetna-maroo), with two out of the four authors being women. Moreover, the past three prizes (2020, 2021, and 2022) have all been [won by men too](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booker_Prize).\n\nAs the [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/sep/21/booker-shortlist-2023-just-one-british-writer-chetna-maroo) reports:\n\n\"Commenting on the fact that more men appear on the list than in recent years, Edugyan said that “it’s the strength and the quality of the work that landed these writers” on the shortlist. Her fellow judge, the actor Robert Webb, joked that “it was very much the work that we were concentrating on rather than whether or not they were called Paul”.\"" }, { "id": 19398, "title": "Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?", "short_title": "Bud Light gone by 2026", "url_title": "Bud Light gone by 2026", "slug": "bud-light-gone-by-2026", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-14T10:15:59.441844Z", "published_at": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:00:28.469035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19398, "title": "Will Bud Light cease production by 2026?", "created_at": "2023-10-14T10:15:59.441844Z", "open_time": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-26T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-26T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 2023, Bud Light attracted controversy by running an ad campaign with transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney. American conservatives began to boycott the company in response. As of the 4th of July weekend of 2023, [Bud Light had fallen to 14th place in popularity among American beers,](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bud-light-plummets-14th-place-210130892.html) [the company had fired hundreds of workers and sales had plummeted 26.5%.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anheuser-busch-bud-light-layoffs-dylan-mulvaney-kid-rock-ryan-young/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes based on credible media reports that Bud Light has been discontinued before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "If Bud Light is re-branded under a different name but Anheuser Busch continues to sell the same product, this question will resolve Ambigious. This question will resolve as Yes if Anheuser Busch becomes defunct.", "post_id": 19398, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757819597.404234, "end_time": 1767204894.041574, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757819597.404234, "end_time": 1767204894.041574, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0041514376058083115 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.20496903243636, 0.9601274926948009, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287154.531503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287154.531503, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986545012869604, 0.0013454987130395331 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 161, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 2023, Bud Light attracted controversy by running an ad campaign with transgender activist Dylan Mulvaney. American conservatives began to boycott the company in response. As of the 4th of July weekend of 2023, [Bud Light had fallen to 14th place in popularity among American beers,](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bud-light-plummets-14th-place-210130892.html) [the company had fired hundreds of workers and sales had plummeted 26.5%.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/anheuser-busch-bud-light-layoffs-dylan-mulvaney-kid-rock-ryan-young/)" }, { "id": 19397, "title": "Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?", "short_title": "Derrick Rose Hall of Fame by 2040?", "url_title": "Derrick Rose Hall of Fame by 2040?", "slug": "derrick-rose-hall-of-fame-by-2040", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-14T10:06:59.335050Z", "published_at": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-02T07:33:02.172478Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19397, "title": "Will Derrick Rose make the Hall of Fame?", "created_at": "2023-10-14T10:06:59.335050Z", "open_time": "2023-11-23T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-26T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-26T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2044-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[As of 10/14/23, every player who has been selected NBA MVP has eventually been elected to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Valuable_Player_Award). [It is considered very likely that LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid will all make the Hall of Fame.](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob.html) However, Derrick Rose, the 2010-2011 MVP, is only assigned a 10% chance according to Basketball Reference.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame announces, before January 1, 2040, that Derrick Rose has been selected for admission. 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Soon after, [he was given an 84 rating for NBA 2k24, the highest rating for a rookie in the franchise's history.](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10085735-victor-wembanyamas-nba2k24-rating-revealed-highest-rated-rookie-in-games-history) [The hype around Wembanyama](https://hoopshabit.com/2022/10/16/victor-wembanyama-best-prospect/) [has reached](https://theathletic.com/3690276/2022/10/19/victor-wembanyama-nba-draft/) [a fever pitch](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rxl6xX02WS4) in [major media outlets.](https://sports.yahoo.com/is-it-even-possible-for-victor-wembanyama-to-live-up-to-the-hype-194708455.html?guccounter=1)\n\n[Since the 1990s, only six NBA rookies have made the All-Star Game in their first season.](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/how-many-nba-rookies-have-been-all-stars-in-their-rookie-season) This is a good indicator of a future Hall of Fame entry, as the majority of players who made the All-Star game in their first season since the 1979-80 season have eventually made the Hall.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the NBA announces that Victor Wembanyama was selected for the 2024 NBA All-Star Game. 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made the Hall." }, { "id": 19386, "title": "Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?", "short_title": "Non-Test Nuclear Detonation in Iran by 2025?", "url_title": "Non-Test Nuclear Detonation in Iran by 2025?", "slug": "non-test-nuclear-detonation-in-iran-by-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-13T19:28:51.967089Z", "published_at": "2023-10-13T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.528511Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-13T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T07:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-13T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 115, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.\n\nWhile Israel [does not publicly confirm that it has nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option#Nuclear_ambiguity), based on US intelligence the [Federation of American Scientists estimates](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that Israel has 90 nuclear warheads.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, a non-test nuclear weapon is detonated in Iran. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. For the purposes of this question, Iranian territory will include its 12 nautical mile [territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea). To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\").", "post_id": 19386, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654538.147122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654538.147122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.004937925384818159 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.800746033587824, 2.114121337753268, 0.406879433030478, 0.0006664662732648743, 0.010525708885142376, 0.022946743998104726, 9.944237270650903e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4009062330289771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063304658603344135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010194536566111888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.97204852023056, "peer_score": 2.080982908460018, "coverage": 0.999996033232475, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999996033232475, "spot_peer_score": 0.8211617367060045, "spot_baseline_score": 95.60566524124029, "baseline_archived_score": 98.97204852023056, "peer_archived_score": 2.080982908460018, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.8211617367060045, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 95.60566524124029 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288925.235671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288925.235671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 238, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.\n\nWhile Israel [does not publicly confirm that it has nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option#Nuclear_ambiguity), based on US intelligence the [Federation of American Scientists estimates](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/) that Israel has 90 nuclear warheads." }, { "id": 19375, "title": "Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?", "short_title": "Israel-Hezbollah Conflict 400 Deaths by 2024?", "url_title": "Israel-Hezbollah Conflict 400 Deaths by 2024?", "slug": "israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-12T21:42:59.156430Z", "published_at": "2023-10-13T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.507570Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-13T00:00:00Z", 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19375, "title": "Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-12T21:42:59.156430Z", "open_time": "2023-10-13T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T02:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-09T18:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-09T18:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-09T18:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\n\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that there have been 400 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.", "fine_print": "* Both combatant and non-combatant deaths count toward the total.\n* Deaths will be summed over the entirety of the period in question.\n* In the event death totals are reported but it is not clear which conflict the deaths occurred in (for example, if deaths of Israeli military members are reported in total and not disaggregated between those occurring in conflict with Hamas and those occurring in conflict with Hezbollah) Metaculus may use the available estimates to make a determination whether the threshold has been met.\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* The median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the estimates differ substantially.", "post_id": 19375, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704061709.163709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704061709.163709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05210989661883296 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.438321273033906, 5.9195129616619395, 0.2985179761041358, 1.982988511514141, 1.2176134222545316, 2.4564491460616393, 0.15397212320626444, 0.6992012327188393, 0.0, 0.38078824483884927, 1.036955378067638, 0.0, 0.11161885388424365, 0.0, 0.1801138855595485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001141695322050572, 0.12076830946302684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08619049835766811, 0.0036491754352390277, 0.0, 0.007050248220700992, 0.0, 0.0983889478901395, 0.0, 0.04760231289110347, 0.0030578221601624896, 0.018145231805054875, 0.06612647795418972, 0.08924938979887437, 0.05086389194933254, 0.0, 0.013749554165327273, 0.21460383439518876, 0.001271699693724388, 0.0, 0.06529408642318985, 0.0, 0.01753991967940413, 0.0, 0.02530708346119719, 0.0005615367448597199, 0.10001535513187128, 0.03313295227623203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025474768392577253, 0.016443872359116266, 0.03661082273065807, 0.014751828127074942, 4.8033920035236966e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045839324145448744, 0.0, 0.046186836702988655, 0.016946282303830797, 0.041900231805098435, 0.0, 0.00887455477665474, 0.0004924294753687684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013930371987266422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034801623719269547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007619260256521799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023881872675934446 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 30.02922288797482, "coverage": 0.9974059598904272, "baseline_score": 40.343081301027674, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 30.02922288797482, "baseline_archived_score": 40.343081301027674, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704061709.203278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704061709.203278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 522, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\n\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah." }, { "id": 19361, "title": "Will Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee be invited to the APEC summit in November 2023?", "short_title": "Hong Kong invited to APEC summit?", "url_title": "Hong Kong invited to APEC summit?", "slug": "hong-kong-invited-to-apec-summit", "author_id": 153010, "author_username": "bohaska", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-12T12:12:17.281052Z", "published_at": "2023-10-27T02:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.023193Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-27T02:44:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-27T02:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19361, "title": "Will Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee be invited to the APEC summit in November 2023?", "created_at": "2023-10-12T12:12:17.281052Z", "open_time": "2023-10-27T02:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-29T00:27:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-29T00:27:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-11-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-11-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-31T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 27, 2023, the United States announced that it will [bar Hong Kong's Chief Executive, John Lee, from attending the APEC summit](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/27/hong-kong-john-lee-apec/), even though Hong Kong is an APEC member. Since then, the Hong Kong government has been [appealing to the U.S. government](https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3229190/hong-kong-leader-john-lee-expected-be-banned-apec-meeting-us-move-strongly-condemned-beijing) to let him attend the trade talks.\n\nJohn Lee has been [sanctioned by the US](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1088) since August 2020 for suppressing pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Exiled activists from Hong Kong have been calling to ban him from APEC. \n\nChina has been [vaguely hinting](https://twitter.com/theserenadong/status/1706649655424241917) at the US to reconsider and invite John Lee to the APEC summit, but the US has not yield to China's demands.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if a credible source reports that the Chief Executive of Hong Kong has received an invitation to attend the APEC summit from November 14-16, 2023 in the capacity of the leader of Hong Kong. It does not matter whether he accepts the invitation or not.\n\nThis question resolves **No** if there are no credible reports before November 14, 2023, that the Chief Executive of Hong Kong has received an invite to the APEC summit.", "fine_print": "This question resolves **Yes** if the Chief Executive of Hong Kong changes and the new Chief Executive of Hong Kong is invited to the APEC summit.\n\nThe question is annulled if the 2023 APEC Summit is not held before December 31, 2023.", "post_id": 19361, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1699994118.637533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1699994118.637533, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3776388590140685 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 1.5681937431602668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.6577905345974407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.23033156458993267, "coverage": 0.20796048425055802, "baseline_score": -26.057668843390516, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.23033156458993267, "baseline_archived_score": -26.057668843390516, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698677507.715775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698677507.715775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8074480930361299, 0.19255190696387015 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 27, 2023, the United States announced that it will [bar Hong Kong's Chief Executive, John Lee, from attending the APEC summit](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/27/hong-kong-john-lee-apec/), even though Hong Kong is an APEC member. Since then, the Hong Kong government has been [appealing to the U.S. government](https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3229190/hong-kong-leader-john-lee-expected-be-banned-apec-meeting-us-move-strongly-condemned-beijing) to let him attend the trade talks.\n\nJohn Lee has been [sanctioned by the US](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1088) since August 2020 for suppressing pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. Exiled activists from Hong Kong have been calling to ban him from APEC. \n\nChina has been [vaguely hinting](https://twitter.com/theserenadong/status/1706649655424241917) at the US to reconsider and invite John Lee to the APEC summit, but the US has not yield to China's demands." }, { "id": 19358, "title": "Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?", "short_title": "US Interest Rate Hike in Q4 2023?", "url_title": "US Interest Rate Hike in Q4 2023?", "slug": "us-interest-rate-hike-in-q4-2023", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-11T16:06:45.450266Z", "published_at": "2023-10-18T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.273404Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-18T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-12T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-12T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-18T16:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-18T16:29:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-18T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19358, "title": "Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-10-11T16:06:45.450266Z", "open_time": "2023-10-18T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-21T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-21T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-18T16:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-18T16:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-18T16:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-12T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-12T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The U.S. federal funds target rate, often simply called the \"fed funds rate,\" is the interest rate at which depository institutions (primarily banks) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, this rate serves as a benchmark for various other interest rates in the economy, including those for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. The FOMC adjusts the rate to influence monetary conditions, aiming to achieve policy objectives such as full employment and stable prices. By raising or lowering the fed funds rate, the Federal Reserve can either cool down an overheated economy or stimulate economic activity, thereby indirectly influencing inflation, employment, and overall economic growth.\n\nSince July 26, 2023, the Federal Funds Rate has been at 5.25% to 5.50%. In late August, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech at [Jackson Hole](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/jackson-hole-meeting-jerome-powell-speech-today/card/transcript-read-jerome-powell-s-jackson-hole-speech-WVKhbYPJrWlYI9GYj4hB?mod=article_inline), where he emphasized the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% target. Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has significantly tightened its monetary policy to combat persistently high inflation. While the inflation rate has declined from its peak, it remains elevated. Powell stated that the Fed is prepared to raise rates further if necessary and plans to maintain a restrictive policy stance until inflation is on a sustainable downward path. The speech also touched upon the complexities and uncertainties the Fed faces in balancing its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, particularly in the context of lingering pandemic-induced supply and demand dislocations. \n\nWhile there were no rate hikes in [September](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/20/live-updates-fed-decision-september-2023.html), [markets](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) put an implied probability of 27.8% on the outcome of a rate rise before the end of the year, though much of this depends on economic factors that remain uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 17, 2023, and before December 18, 2023, the Federal Funds target range as reported [by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr) is higher than 5.25-5.50%.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19358, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702371137.348642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702371137.348642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0863850248647975 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.24828179361502, 6.8777870708981865, 1.7788934041244584, 0.20620147702642477, 0.19411720179226452, 0.3103887633269403, 0.5007387990534937, 0.45786225535476494, 0.22624007091461726, 0.25992680887538594, 1.011716477950454, 0.0, 0.09169753163314498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10170280165018966, 0.013087394083192034, 0.014572985085022729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007254371728824626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03432426661980639, 0.0, 1.0261037398527244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035718598937916577, 0.0, 0.8678248845417028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014324495277256958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005090291650876231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005987133726784101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018726136479240064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6811722603758346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33414766806612, 0.0, 0.00010424239163311021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4116237687737996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00036242407021046816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012051197561465337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.921722446764564, "coverage": 0.9999829977278447, "baseline_score": 80.86192361346946, "spot_peer_score": 7.944552138859174, "peer_archived_score": 13.921722446764564, "baseline_archived_score": 80.86192361346946, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.944552138859174 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702371137.405009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702371137.405009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994049825300836, 0.000595017469916374 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 569, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The U.S. federal funds target rate, often simply called the \"fed funds rate,\" is the interest rate at which depository institutions (primarily banks) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, the nation's central bank, this rate serves as a benchmark for various other interest rates in the economy, including those for mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. The FOMC adjusts the rate to influence monetary conditions, aiming to achieve policy objectives such as full employment and stable prices. By raising or lowering the fed funds rate, the Federal Reserve can either cool down an overheated economy or stimulate economic activity, thereby indirectly influencing inflation, employment, and overall economic growth.\n\nSince July 26, 2023, the Federal Funds Rate has been at 5.25% to 5.50%. In late August, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a speech at [Jackson Hole](https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/jackson-hole-meeting-jerome-powell-speech-today/card/transcript-read-jerome-powell-s-jackson-hole-speech-WVKhbYPJrWlYI9GYj4hB?mod=article_inline), where he emphasized the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% target. Over the past year, the Federal Reserve has significantly tightened its monetary policy to combat persistently high inflation. While the inflation rate has declined from its peak, it remains elevated. Powell stated that the Fed is prepared to raise rates further if necessary and plans to maintain a restrictive policy stance until inflation is on a sustainable downward path. The speech also touched upon the complexities and uncertainties the Fed faces in balancing its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, particularly in the context of lingering pandemic-induced supply and demand dislocations. \n\nWhile there were no rate hikes in [September](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/20/live-updates-fed-decision-september-2023.html), [markets](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) put an implied probability of 27.8% on the outcome of a rate rise before the end of the year, though much of this depends on economic factors that remain uncertain." }, { "id": 19350, "title": "Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?", "short_title": "US Confirms Iran Involved in Hamas Attack?", "url_title": "US Confirms Iran Involved in Hamas Attack?", "slug": "us-confirms-iran-involved-in-hamas-attack", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-10T20:25:02.923440Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.389242Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T17:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T17:22:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19350, "title": "Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?", "created_at": "2023-10-10T20:25:02.923440Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-11T01:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-11T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T17:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T17:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-23T17:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, one or more US government officials acting in an official government capacity state that Iran was likely involved in planning the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, and the statement it not contradicted within seven days.", "fine_print": "* If a statement does not directly say that Iran was involved in planning the attack but instead directly presents intelligence findings, evidence that members of the Iranian government or military communicated with Hamas regarding the attack prior to the attack will be considered sufficient to count as Iranian involvement in planning the attack.\n* \"Acting in an official government capacity\" will be considered to mean an official statement on behalf of the US government or responding to reporter questions on behalf of the US government. The following is a non-exhaustive list representing the kinds of reports that will **not** be considered to be \"acting in an official government capacity\":\n * Reporting as an anonymous source\n * Congressional representatives describing information or evidence they have seen\n * Personal opinions (for example \"I believe that. . .\" or \"In my view the evidence is clear. . .\")\n * Leaked information not confirmed by the US government\n* The following non-exhaustive list of terms will be considered to meet the \"likely\" threshold specified in the criteria:\n * \"Likely\"\n * \"Probable\"\n * \"Highly likely\"\n * \"High confidence\"\n * \"Has concluded that\"\n* Terms such as \"possible\", \"plausible\", or similar will not be considered to meet the \"likely\" threshold.\n* A statement will be considered to be contradicted within seven days if the US government or a US government official, including the same official who made the original statement, either reports a different conclusion, reports a confidence level below \"likely\", states that there is insufficient evidence, or disavows the original statement.\n* If it is unclear whether a statement meets the specified criteria, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 19350, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704036524.891034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704036524.891034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05315611051788245 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.195467676311399, 5.933137781877454, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0660957298728644, 1.0833012022328878, 0.15813873095213704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6010903321614789, 0.5284135293839354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019754520645241095, 0.5306510897131016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11083301965526829, 0.0056145053338992595, 0.09563836751124195, 0.019132522858291853, 0.14749563312177918, 0.07618090488681187, 0.015663757846189213, 0.06148481321923326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08459892271552819, 0.0, 0.07320065486074036, 0.0887319228627799, 0.2218950619316045, 0.011574002057161041, 0.014128607803813408, 0.07049165811994734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431570333994386, 0.0, 0.008125528952671308, 0.012715044525389515, 0.0, 0.030573526996236923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06516519198932734, 0.04544585979428191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12804351164029554, 0.004297018526623552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021564436332159993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02547085730884873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032187559410783474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016456269758058238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.113204502458414, "coverage": 0.9998782522058415, "baseline_score": 54.46164621066937, "spot_peer_score": 15.005229622516888, "peer_archived_score": 15.113204502458414, "baseline_archived_score": 54.46164621066937, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.005229622516888 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704036524.918152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704036524.918152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9992174827709078, 0.00078251722909214 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 238, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead." }, { "id": 19333, "title": "Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?", "short_title": "Yahya Sinwar Remains in Power?", "url_title": "Yahya Sinwar Remains in Power?", "slug": "yahya-sinwar-remains-in-power", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 130973, "username": "NMorrison" } ], "created_at": "2023-10-09T16:11:47.624992Z", "published_at": "2023-10-09T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.001159Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-09T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:42:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-09T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 179, "html_metadata_json": 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"exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19333, "title": "Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-09T16:11:47.624992Z", "open_time": "2023-10-09T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-10T01:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-10T01:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gaza, also known as the [Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip) is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians.\n\nIn the [1948 Arab-Israeli War](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war), Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the [Six-Day War in 1967](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39960461), when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the [Oslo Accords](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/what-were-oslo-accords-israel-palestinians) the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\n\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, [Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas), an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the [2006 Palestinian legislative elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election), a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the [2007 clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_conflict). Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the [Palestinian Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_National_Authority).\n\nOn October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\n[Yahya Sinwar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahya_Sinwar) is the Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip. Israel was previously [reported to have threatened](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-to-threaten-action-against-hamas-chief-sinwar-over-terror-cheerleading/) Sinwar in 2022 in response to his [calls for violence against Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/sinwar-warns-israel-hamas-wont-hesitate-to-take-any-steps-if-al-aqsa-is-violated/), and some Israeli politicians have previously called for his assassination. Following the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel [it was reported](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-hit-gaza-home-of-hamas-chief-yahya-sinwar-amid-terror-group-assault/) that Sinwar's home was bombed by Israel.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Yahya Sinwar has either stepped down or been replaced as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip, been captured by Israel, or that he has died. The question will resolve as **No** if he continuously holds his position or if there is no reporting indicating a change in status.", "fine_print": "* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.", "post_id": 19333, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056880.037716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056880.037716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05885649104462263 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.154560911328437, 8.808758212503966, 0.6402868318218065, 1.0750372960677335, 0.10564142270315233, 0.5181117964539221, 0.12406709493642436, 0.0, 0.029741132889819992, 0.07737245739058542, 0.049581103745941324, 0.0, 0.45465318519696385, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0198955843960895, 0.004908286341918524, 0.6395611914387177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02179619280625027, 0.00433153096846536, 0.0, 0.008925578616698277, 0.01121061991841466, 0.03161676237160959, 0.014000607168687184, 0.0, 0.013250724853492808, 0.0, 1.8660259972838047, 0.002751047896229079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006025941117362484, 0.0, 0.0022451604936222433, 0.0007093709940374008, 0.0, 0.0050974164725495225, 0.0, 0.001821635876438435, 0.0, 0.017193805363356494, 0.0010094522097452497, 0.0014686178481337206, 0.0, 0.001105763922270661, 0.0, 0.008851575533532672, 0.0, 0.0008292852001094695, 0.0, 0.0004834679592020813, 0.0, 0.00016848355650584667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018721429457124278, 0.336604438046103, 0.0, 0.0, 4.265084934577449e-05, 4.555155793138068e-05, 0.014794400355719326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010595485191441276, 0.14784758876787296, 0.0, 0.00030309452269291197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031273400791615276, 0.0006014878364152081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029681526581738686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1432068101507745e-05, 0.00025351979614838714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004382446600946652, 0.0, 0.000107669148440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005551232030470518, 0.0, 0.013587860777432636 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 33.772654359588245, "coverage": 0.9998420885723956, "baseline_score": 32.77578976212702, "spot_peer_score": -19.813561796882716, "peer_archived_score": 33.772654359588245, "baseline_archived_score": 32.77578976212702, "spot_peer_archived_score": -19.813561796882716 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056880.078385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056880.078385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1222, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gaza, also known as the [Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip) is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians.\n\nIn the [1948 Arab-Israeli War](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war), Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the [Six-Day War in 1967](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39960461), when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the [Oslo Accords](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/what-were-oslo-accords-israel-palestinians) the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\n\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, [Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas), an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the [2006 Palestinian legislative elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election), a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the [2007 clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_conflict). Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the [Palestinian Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_National_Authority).\n\nOn October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\n[Yahya Sinwar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahya_Sinwar) is the Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip. Israel was previously [reported to have threatened](https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-to-threaten-action-against-hamas-chief-sinwar-over-terror-cheerleading/) Sinwar in 2022 in response to his [calls for violence against Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/sinwar-warns-israel-hamas-wont-hesitate-to-take-any-steps-if-al-aqsa-is-violated/), and some Israeli politicians have previously called for his assassination. Following the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel [it was reported](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-hit-gaza-home-of-hamas-chief-yahya-sinwar-amid-terror-group-assault/) that Sinwar's home was bombed by Israel." }, { "id": 19332, "title": "Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?", "short_title": "Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024?", "url_title": "Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before 2024?", "slug": "israel-deadly-attack-on-iran-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-09T15:24:45.383503Z", "published_at": "2023-10-09T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.164620Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-09T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:23:20.281816Z", 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"exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19332, "title": "Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-09T15:24:45.383503Z", "open_time": "2023-10-09T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-10T01:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-10T01:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 9, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Israel has carried out an attack with damage occurring within the borders of the country of Iran that has killed at least five Iranians, and that either of the following is true:\n\n* Israel has explicitly acknowledged and taken credit for the attack\n* Israel performed the attack in an unobscured manner, such that credible sources report without ambiguity that the attack was carried out by Israel.", "fine_print": "* The attack need not involve Israeli forces within the borders of Iran, cross-border missile or ballistic attacks are sufficient.\n* An attack must be a [kinetic attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action), using weaponry or physical violence. A cyberattack would not count, even one resulting in deaths.\n* Israel will be considered to have explicitly acknowledged and taken credit for the attack if the Israeli government or any agency of the Israeli government publicly confirms that the attack was carried out by Israel.\n* The five deaths threshold must be met in the span of 24 hours, smaller events over a longer timespan would not count. The deaths do not need to occur in the same location, a coordinated strike on multiple targets in the country would be sufficient, as would multiple assassinations taking place in the same 24 hour span that Israel acknowledges and takes credit for.", "post_id": 19332, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704061552.140152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704061552.140152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02674461000794022 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.23552029467284, 11.033056429049452, 0.9057712028440235, 0.05144208420116615, 0.013273932064966954, 0.9793407719371475, 0.003763991147351234, 0.008704367903261442, 0.001475599132558081, 0.00039597715003290114, 0.08234259834411788, 0.0, 0.0008755913347269039, 0.0, 0.0027430381739049314, 3.527246528313886, 0.0, 0.029397480634653476, 0.001399987215926861, 0.000328674170616559, 0.005892094453462983, 0.00040349449049613845, 0.0, 0.002585263825093275, 0.0, 0.013883592286949274, 0.03233365052628169, 0.0071838769911555045, 6.354375406839794e-05, 0.0, 0.02242449328662986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1244548074140236e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001661913972368027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037707102864124984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007698703272792694, 0.0, 9.002110378441212e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00046118477747461947, 0.0005983728305537459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.543808895609109, "coverage": 0.9999416671055937, "baseline_score": 93.33730143628655, "spot_peer_score": 9.20714506961842, "peer_archived_score": 8.543808895609109, "baseline_archived_score": 93.33730143628655, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.20714506961842 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704061552.185178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704061552.185178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 889, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.\n\nSome reports have suggested that Iran was closely involved in planning the attack. The [Wall Street Journal reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25):\n\n>Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.\n>\n>Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.\n\nHowever, Iran has [denied that it was involved](https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-denies-it-had-role-in-hamas-attack-on-israel-claims-accusation-is-political/) and [US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has stated](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/08/politics/us-intelligence-iran-connection-israel-attack/index.html):\n\n>In this specific instance, we have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack. That’s something we’re looking at very carefully, and we’ve got to see where the facts lead." }, { "id": 19308, "title": "Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?", "short_title": "Hamas loses de facto control of Gaza by 2024?", "url_title": "Hamas loses de facto control of Gaza by 2024?", "slug": "hamas-loses-de-facto-control-of-gaza-by-2024", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-08T00:46:25.006181Z", "published_at": "2023-10-08T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.837101Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-08T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 276, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T20:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T20:32:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-08T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 669, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": 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"2023-10-08T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-08T14:26:08.432000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-08T14:26:08.432000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T20:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T20:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T20:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gaza, also known as the [Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip) is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians.\n\nIn the [1948 Arab-Israeli War](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war), Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the [Six-Day War in 1967](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39960461), when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the [Oslo Accords](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/what-were-oslo-accords-israel-palestinians) the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\n\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, [Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas), an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the [2006 Palestinian legislative elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election), a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the [2007 clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_conflict). Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the [Palestinian Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_National_Authority).\n\nOn October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if at any point between Oct 7, 2023 and Dec 31, 2023, the consensus of credible reports is that Hamas no longer has de facto control of the majority of the land area of the Gaza Strip. It resolves **No** in all other cases, including if the consensus of credible reports is that control of Gaza is disputed, or if there is no consensus of credible reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19308, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704048566.156227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 669, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704048566.156227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 669, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03141990809680914 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.9143275454158, 21.833930061895447, 0.7503450996647464, 0.6603495164559976, 0.06875919027487241, 2.4603057733240665, 0.043712020363958944, 0.030814594803768667, 0.011857709204495566, 0.0161605059544477, 0.19427636983067953, 0.045627861714516355, 0.03204977504740766, 0.9749636636322816, 0.014221542641054822, 3.1922830523919634, 0.008430743947771638, 0.0065320725877912825, 0.11876548450929478, 0.0029821976143164473, 0.08111915994489519, 0.01193806099672607, 0.023877537783334915, 0.0, 4.4410011395630956e-05, 0.011377808353511073, 0.01061134625436135, 0.004649737519597001, 0.005354609995729778, 0.0, 0.02624135167779939, 4.4813231159123785e-08, 0.0, 5.510224229943012e-05, 0.0062173158483219545, 0.010586167655920936, 3.195595491692752e-07, 2.1312842239408993e-06, 7.083451216709494e-07, 5.713282361116453e-06, 0.012854582944137964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010099079824556253, 2.8368533726755605e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.260782695045869e-05, 0.013032812668384354, 0.00025185967229972615, 0.0, 0.22944486427083308, 9.298819368430693e-05, 0.005524069738433421, 0.01033123237360382, 5.0370319681871816e-05, 0.0, 0.002317860283668307, 0.003028780552465216, 1.9766089974468895e-05, 4.1940366496453086e-08, 9.516825508479963e-07, 0.001043819740208034, 2.3168649550677293e-05, 8.49253068544842e-06, 1.789402467249246e-05, 0.0, 2.0429816328975846e-05, 0.037626646258181004, 2.474120851277012e-08, 0.0, 2.9453498716768597e-05, 3.192539294364346e-10, 0.0046430115677085545, 4.9318451322709556e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002379638458202864, 0.3113928180619685, 3.014465949086813e-06, 1.1648080096053487e-07, 0.010988827637195676, 0.0, 0.007720894497130999, 1.8490716586745146e-05, 0.0, 0.005001240839722825, 0.00011144496253121707, 4.382803560594414e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.443672192097009e-09, 2.658071524233592e-05, 0.0005198194100711861, 0.0, 9.210995073991396e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 27.314712382092544, "coverage": 0.9999993734030849, "baseline_score": 47.62163723999913, "spot_peer_score": 16.999713160031497, "peer_archived_score": 27.314712382092544, "baseline_archived_score": 47.62163723999913, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.999713160031497 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704048566.219245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 669, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704048566.219245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 669, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 61, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3639, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gaza, also known as the [Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip) is a small, densely populated coastal territory located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. It borders Israel to the north and east, Egypt to the south, and the Mediterranean Sea to the west. Covering an area of about 365 square kilometers (141 square miles), the Gaza Strip is home to more than two million Palestinians.\n\nIn the [1948 Arab-Israeli War](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/arab-israeli-war), Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip, and it remained under Egyptian control until the [Six-Day War in 1967](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39960461), when Israel captured it. In 1994, as a result of the [Oslo Accords](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/what-were-oslo-accords-israel-palestinians) the Palestinian Authority was established and took over the administration of the Gaza Strip, along with parts of the West Bank.\n\nIn 2007, following internal Palestinian conflict, [Hamas](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas), an Islamist political and militant group, took de facto control of the Gaza Strip. Hamas's rise to power in Gaza was marked by its victory in the [2006 Palestinian legislative elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election), a result that surprised many and led to tensions with political rival Fatah, culminating in the [2007 clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fatah%E2%80%93Hamas_conflict). Since then, the Gaza Strip has been under the administrative and military control of Hamas, while the West Bank remains under the [Palestinian Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_National_Authority).\n\nOn October 7, 2023, [Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/martin-indyk-why-hamas-attacked-and-why-israel-was-taken-surprise). \n\nAccording to *[Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/07/hamas-attack-israel-declares-war-gaza-why-explained/)*:\n\n> Initial information suggests that the attack has no precedent in recent Israeli history. The IDF [said](https://www.cnn.com/middleeast/live-news/al-aqsa-storm-militants-infiltrate-israel-after-gaza-rockets-10-07-intl-hnk/h_011c2f08e2646aa47a072dcd2d1caf33) approximately 2,200 rockets were launched in the initial barrages, making it the largest rocket attack against Israel since Hamas took control of Gaza in [2007](https://www.google.com/url?q=https://freedomhouse.org/country/gaza-strip/freedom-world/2021&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1696706417450975&usg=AOvVaw1huk_OBuqJV0SQOIKAP6BQ). The number of rockets launched was an order of magnitude larger than the attacks at the beginning of the [2014](https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/systemfiles/Rocket%20Warfare%20in%20Operation%20Protective%20Edge.pdf) and [2021](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/10/world/middleeast/jerusalem-protests-aqsa-palestinians.html) crises. Hamas also appears to have been quite innovative, [using paragliders](https://news.sky.com/video/israel-hamas-fighters-appear-to-paraglide-across-border-in-released-footage-12978986) among other means to enter Israel by surprise. The infiltration is particularly devastating for Israel due to the lives lost and the hostages taken.\n\n> Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu [declared](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/10/07/world/israel-gaza-attack), “We are at war,” and launched [Operation Iron Swords](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-762075), conducting airstrikes in Gaza and calling up reservists. Al Jazeera reports that the Israeli response has already [claimed 232 lives](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/7/sirens-warn-of-rockets-launched-towards-israel-from-gaza-news-reports) in Gaza, with many more deaths sure to come." }, { "id": 19306, "title": "Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?", "short_title": "Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit?", "url_title": "Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit?", "slug": "meaningful-commitments-from-uk-ai-summit", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" }, { "id": 130973, "username": "NMorrison" } ], "created_at": "2023-10-06T22:33:33.147924Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.095492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": 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"group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nThe [UK AI Safety Summit](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-summit-introduction/ai-safety-summit-introduction-html) is taking place November 1st and 2nd, 2023. [According to Computerworld](https://www.computerworld.com/article/3706051/uk-government-outlines-five-objectives-for-ai-safety-summit.html):\n\n> The five objectives of the UK government’s summit are:\n> \n> - Develop a shared understanding of the risks posed by frontier AI and the need for action\n> - Put forward process for international collaboration on frontier AI safety, including how best to support national and international frameworks\n> - Propose appropriate measures which individual organisations should take to increase frontier AI safety\n> - Identify areas for potential collaboration on AI safety research, including evaluating model capabilities and the development of new standards to support governance\n> - Showcase how ensuring the safe development of AI will enable AI to be used for good globally.\n\nArguably a large part of whether the summit is successful lies in whether or not leading AI labs, and the governments that regulate them, make commitments that they would not have made had the summit not been convened.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the UK AI Safety Summit results in a joint declaration or statement, endorsed by at least five of the top institutions cited in Effective Institutions Project’s [AI governance primer](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.substack.com/i/135267188/the-top-institutions-for-ai-governance) who are also participating parties (nations and/or labs) in the Summit, that includes at least three of the following commitments [proposed by the Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/FLI_AI_Summit_Recommendations.pdf):\n\n* An agreement to reconvene in six months (or less) to work on AI governance\n* A commitment to increase public funding for AI safety research\n* A commitment by signatory nations to develop a national-level AI strategy that contains at least two of the following measures:\n * Standards for advanced AI, with associated benchmarks and thresholds for dangerous capabilities\n * Mandatory pre-deployment audits for potentially dangerous AI systems by independent third parties\n * Monitoring of entities with large-scale AI compute concentrations\n * Safety protocols to prevent systems with dangerous capabilities from being developed, deployed, or stolen\n * Restrictions on open source AI based on capability thresholds\n * Immediate enhancement of cybersecurity standards at leading AI companies\n * Adaptation of national liability law to AI-specific challenges\n* A post-summit working group with a mandate to develop a blueprint for international AI governance\n* Encouragement of AI labs to share information with the UK Foundation Model Task Force\n\nThe question also resolves **Yes** if no such declaration is issued, but the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/) issues a public statement indicating that the outcomes from the summit have nevertheless exceeded the organization’s expectations.", "fine_print": "* A joint declaration or statement endorsed by at least five of the following institutions or official representatives of the institutions attending the Summit is required for resolution:\n\n * The United States government\n * The Chinese government\n * The European Union\n * OpenAI\n * Google DeepMind\n * Anthropic\n * Alphabet\n * Microsoft\n * Amazon\n * Meta\n\n* A joint statement meeting these criteria must be publicly available before November 10, 2023, or 168 hours following the end of the Summit, whichever is later.\n\n* If the UK AI Summit does not take place before March 1, 2024, this question will resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 19306, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1698787606.231355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1698787606.231355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], 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[According to Computerworld](https://www.computerworld.com/article/3706051/uk-government-outlines-five-objectives-for-ai-safety-summit.html):\n\n> The five objectives of the UK government’s summit are:\n> \n> - Develop a shared understanding of the risks posed by frontier AI and the need for action\n> - Put forward process for international collaboration on frontier AI safety, including how best to support national and international frameworks\n> - Propose appropriate measures which individual organisations should take to increase frontier AI safety\n> - Identify areas for potential collaboration on AI safety research, including evaluating model capabilities and the development of new standards to support governance\n> - Showcase how ensuring the safe development of AI will enable AI to be used for good globally.\n\nArguably a large part of whether the summit is successful lies in whether or not leading AI labs, and the governments that regulate them, make commitments that they would not have made had the summit not been convened." }, { "id": 19299, "title": "Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?", "short_title": "EU Regulations on Foundation Models?", "url_title": "EU Regulations on Foundation Models?", "slug": "eu-regulations-on-foundation-models", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" }, { "id": 130973, "username": "NMorrison" } ], "created_at": "2023-10-06T22:04:28.526582Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.317809Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T14:32:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": 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"2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T20:39:16.293512Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19299, "title": "Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?", "created_at": "2023-10-06T22:04:28.526582Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T14:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-12T14:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:32:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nThe final version of the [EU AI Act](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/the-act/) is currently being negotiated. This act aims to place significant regulation on the development and use of AI. The proposed language establishes [four levels of risk from AI systems](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/regulatory-framework-ai): minimal, limited, high, and unacceptable. AIs classified as “unacceptable” would be outright prohibited, while the other risk categories would be subject to graduated levels of regulation.\n\nThe AI Act was [originally proposed by the European Commission (EC) in April of 2021](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52021PC0206). In December of 2022, the [Council of the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_of_the_European_Union) (the Council) adopted [its “general approach”](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/AIA-%E2%80%93-CZ-%E2%80%93-General-Approach-25-Nov-22.pdf), modifying the Commission’s proposed act to reflect its own position. In June of 2023, the European Parliament (EP) [adopted amendments](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2023-0236_EN.html) to the Commission’s draft, staking its own position. The next stage is known as a “[trilogue](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/glossary/trilogue.html)” between the three bodies to reach a provisional agreement on the final text. The Future of Life Institute (FLI) maintains a website with detailed information regarding the AI Act: see [this page](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/context/) for context and timelines and [this page](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/documents/) for links to relevant documents.\n\nNotably, the the Council's version would set forth regulations on general-purpose AI (GPAI) systems, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT. The EP’s version would also impose requirements on systems like ChatGPT, which it describes as “foundation models”, and defines as follows:\n\n>‘foundation model’ means an AI system model that is trained on broad data at scale, is designed for generality of output, and can be adapted to a wide range of distinctive tasks;\n\nThe proposed language from the **the Council** does not automatically classify GPAIs as high risk, but does subject GPAIs to a form of the regulations imposed on high risk AI (the implementation of these regulations is to be specified in [implementing acts](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/decision-making/implementing-and-delegated-acts/#:~:text=An%20implementing%20act%20is%20a%20non%2Dlegislative%20act%20laying%20down%20detailed%20rules%20allowing%20the%20uniform%20implementation%20of%20legally%20binding%20Union%20acts.) adopted after the AI Act enters into force), only allowing an exemption “when the provider has explicitly excluded all high-risk uses in the instructions of use or information accompanying the general purpose AI system”. The regulations would include implementing a risk management system, data governance and management requirements, event logging capabilities, and more. For more detail see Title IA of the the Council's [proposed act](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/AIA-%E2%80%93-CZ-%E2%80%93-General-Approach-25-Nov-22.pdf).\n\nThe **EP**’s amendments would similarly not automatically classify foundation models as high risk, but would impose specific requirements on foundation models. The requirements include identifying, reducing, and mitigating “reasonably foreseeable risks to health, safety, fundamental rights, the environment and democracy and the rule of law” during model development, data governance measures, and more. Specifically for generative AI, the proposed text would also require that the model provider implements means to inform the end user that they are interacting with an AI, implement safeguards against generating content that would violate EU law, and make public a “sufficiently detailed summary” of copyrighted training data used in the model. For more detail see Article 28 b of the EP’s [proposed amendments](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2023-0236_EN.html).\n\nIf interested, see the [World Economic Forum's explainer](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/06/european-union-ai-act-explained/) for more detail and background on the act.\n\nSee also our question \"[When will the EU pass the AI Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8787/passing-of-the-ai-act/)\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the final version of the EU AI Act includes requirements on providers of foundation models, as outlined in the European Parliament’s negotiating mandate for the Act in [Article 28b](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2023-0236_EN.html#:~:text=28%20b%20(new)-,Article%2028%20b,-Obligations%20of%20the). Any of the requirements in parts a through g of paragraph 2 and parts a through c in paragraph 4 of Article 28b qualify for the purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* The inclusion of any of the regulations related to foundation models in parts a through g of paragraph 2 and parts a through c in paragraph 4 of Article 28b is sufficient for a **Yes** resolution:\n\n> 1. A provider of a foundation model shall, prior to making it available on the market or putting it into service, ensure that it is compliant with the requirements set out in this Article, regardless of whether it is provided as a standalone model or embedded in an AI system or a product, or provided under free and open source licenses, as a service, as well as other distribution channels. \n\n> 2. For the purpose of paragraph 1, the provider of a foundation model shall: \n\n> (a) demonstrate through appropriate design, testing and analysis the identification, the reduction and mitigation of reasonably foreseeable risks to health, safety, fundamental rights, the environment and democracy and the rule of law prior and throughout development with appropriate methods such as with the involvement of independent experts, as well as the documentation of remaining non-mitigable risks after development \n\n> (b) process and incorporate only datasets that are subject to appropriate data governance measures for foundation models, in particular measures to examine the suitability of the data sources and possible biases and appropriate mitigation \n\n> (c) design and develop the foundation model in order to achieve throughout its lifecycle appropriate levels of performance, predictability, interpretability, corrigibility, safety and cybersecurity assessed through appropriate methods such as model evaluation with the involvement of independent experts, documented analysis, and extensive testing during conceptualisation, design, and development; \n\n>(d) design and develop the foundation model, making use of applicable standards to reduce energy use, resource use and waste, as well as to increase energy efficiency, and the overall efficiency of the system, without prejudice to relevant existing Union and national law. This obligation shall not apply before the standards referred to in Article 40 are published. Foundation models shall be designed with capabilities enabling the measurement and logging of the consumption of energy and resources, and, where technically feasible, other environmental impact the deployment and use of the systems may have over their entire lifecycle; \n\n> (e) draw up extensive technical documentation and intelligible instructions for use, in order to enable the downstream providers to comply with their obligations pursuant to Articles 16 and 28(1);. \n\n> (f) establish a quality management system to ensure and document compliance with this Article, with the possibility to experiment in fulfilling this requirement, \n\n> (g) register that foundation model in the EU database referred to in Article 60, in accordance with the instructions outlined in Annex VIII point C. \n\n> When fulfilling those requirements, the generally acknowledged state of the art shall be taken into account, including as reflected in relevant harmonised standards or common specifications, as well as the latest assessment and measurement methods, reflected in particular in benchmarking guidance and capabilities referred to in Article 58a; \n\n> 3. Providers of foundation models shall, for a period ending 10 years after their foundation models have been placed on the market or put into service, keep the technical documentation referred to in paragraph 2(e) at the disposal of the national competent authorities \n\n> 4. Providers of foundation models used in AI systems specifically intended to generate, with varying levels of autonomy, content such as complex text, images, audio, or video (“generative AI”) and providers who specialise a foundation model into a generative AI system, shall in addition \n\n> a) comply with the transparency obligations outlined in Article 52 (1), \n\n> b) train, and where applicable, design and develop the foundation model in such a way as to ensure adequate safeguards against the generation of content in breach of Union law in line with the generally-acknowledged state of the art, and without prejudice to fundamental rights, including the freedom of expression, \n\n> c) without prejudice to Union or national or Union legislation on copyright, document and make publicly available a sufficiently detailed summary of the use of training data protected under copyright law. \n\n* If changes in wording to the EU Parliament negotiating mandate are made through the European AI Act Trilogues, but the substance of any of the above restrictions is incorporated into the final version of the Act, the question may still resolve **Yes** at the discretion of Metaculus.\n\n* Similarly, if the term “foundational models” is replaced with a different term (for example, general-purpose AI), but the substance of the regulations would still apply to models characterized as “foundational models” by the EU Parliament’s negotiating mandate, the question may also resolve **Yes** at the discretion of Metaculus. Per the text of the negotiating mandate:\n\n>‘foundation model’ means an AI system model that is trained on broad data at scale, is designed for generality of output, and can be adapted to a wide range of distinctive tasks.\n\n* If the EU's AI Act is not enacted before July 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 19299, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727247723.597714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727247723.597714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9861621280613525 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010969478514417234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018559072767854706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015317060478821994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007509578610630234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013022642992341074, 0.00592601078502299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02405118580334803, 0.011707819368802578, 0.0004790762626597634, 0.0, 0.0017873414785854367, 0.004003664807775071, 0.013348847679651915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017624230778577688, 0.0, 0.0009731030724535509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058894411839654034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06617533088585446, 0.2521220871081794, 0.0, 0.008697920756189014, 0.4440181252868051, 0.057193170883778566, 0.6158145205612267, 0.020260378170746603, 0.5590887105116784, 0.030830933517555805, 15.592912988440748 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.331203387692268, "coverage": 0.3392301968711486, "baseline_score": 29.53893904334598, "spot_peer_score": 42.4007357621628, "peer_archived_score": 4.331203387692268, "baseline_archived_score": 29.53893904334598, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.4007357621628 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720513895.432056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720513895.432056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.017567241060827743, 0.9824327589391723 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 194, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nThe final version of the [EU AI Act](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/the-act/) is currently being negotiated. This act aims to place significant regulation on the development and use of AI. The proposed language establishes [four levels of risk from AI systems](https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/regulatory-framework-ai): minimal, limited, high, and unacceptable. AIs classified as “unacceptable” would be outright prohibited, while the other risk categories would be subject to graduated levels of regulation.\n\nThe AI Act was [originally proposed by the European Commission (EC) in April of 2021](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52021PC0206). In December of 2022, the [Council of the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_of_the_European_Union) (the Council) adopted [its “general approach”](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/AIA-%E2%80%93-CZ-%E2%80%93-General-Approach-25-Nov-22.pdf), modifying the Commission’s proposed act to reflect its own position. In June of 2023, the European Parliament (EP) [adopted amendments](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2023-0236_EN.html) to the Commission’s draft, staking its own position. The next stage is known as a “[trilogue](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/EN/legal-content/glossary/trilogue.html)” between the three bodies to reach a provisional agreement on the final text. The Future of Life Institute (FLI) maintains a website with detailed information regarding the AI Act: see [this page](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/context/) for context and timelines and [this page](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/documents/) for links to relevant documents.\n\nNotably, the the Council's version would set forth regulations on general-purpose AI (GPAI) systems, such as OpenAI's ChatGPT. The EP’s version would also impose requirements on systems like ChatGPT, which it describes as “foundation models”, and defines as follows:\n\n>‘foundation model’ means an AI system model that is trained on broad data at scale, is designed for generality of output, and can be adapted to a wide range of distinctive tasks;\n\nThe proposed language from the **the Council** does not automatically classify GPAIs as high risk, but does subject GPAIs to a form of the regulations imposed on high risk AI (the implementation of these regulations is to be specified in [implementing acts](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/decision-making/implementing-and-delegated-acts/#:~:text=An%20implementing%20act%20is%20a%20non%2Dlegislative%20act%20laying%20down%20detailed%20rules%20allowing%20the%20uniform%20implementation%20of%20legally%20binding%20Union%20acts.) adopted after the AI Act enters into force), only allowing an exemption “when the provider has explicitly excluded all high-risk uses in the instructions of use or information accompanying the general purpose AI system”. The regulations would include implementing a risk management system, data governance and management requirements, event logging capabilities, and more. For more detail see Title IA of the the Council's [proposed act](https://artificialintelligenceact.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/AIA-%E2%80%93-CZ-%E2%80%93-General-Approach-25-Nov-22.pdf).\n\nThe **EP**’s amendments would similarly not automatically classify foundation models as high risk, but would impose specific requirements on foundation models. The requirements include identifying, reducing, and mitigating “reasonably foreseeable risks to health, safety, fundamental rights, the environment and democracy and the rule of law” during model development, data governance measures, and more. Specifically for generative AI, the proposed text would also require that the model provider implements means to inform the end user that they are interacting with an AI, implement safeguards against generating content that would violate EU law, and make public a “sufficiently detailed summary” of copyrighted training data used in the model. For more detail see Article 28 b of the EP’s [proposed amendments](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2023-0236_EN.html).\n\nIf interested, see the [World Economic Forum's explainer](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/06/european-union-ai-act-explained/) for more detail and background on the act.\n\nSee also our question \"[When will the EU pass the AI Act?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8787/passing-of-the-ai-act/)\"." }, { "id": 19298, "title": "Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?", "short_title": "Int'l TAI oversight agency before 2030", "url_title": "Int'l TAI oversight agency before 2030", "slug": "intl-tai-oversight-agency-before-2030", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-10-06T21:14:38.251568Z", "published_at": "2023-10-08T21:48:00Z", "edited_at": 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On June 9, 2023, Dorries unexpectedly announced she was resigning as MP \"with immediate effect\", triggering a [by-election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Mid_Bedfordshire_by-election). However, she then delayed formally resigning until August 29, with the by-election now being scheduled for October 19, 2023. \n\nThe Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Greens and others have all selected candidates: The Conservatives have selected Bedfordshire Police Commissioner [Festus Akinbusoye](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Festus_Akinbusoye) as their candidate. Labour chose Alistair Strathern, a former math teacher, London councillor and Bank of England climate lead. The Liberal Democrats selected local councillor Emma Holland-Lindsay. Other candidates include Reform UK's Dave Holland, independent councillor Gareth Mackey, and candidates from the Greens and other parties. \n\nThe seat is expected to be closely fought, with polling form early September showing Conservatives and Labour at 29% and Lib Dems at 22%. At the last election (2019 general election), Dorries won the constituency with a majority of [24,664 votes](https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3603/election/397), that being 59.8% of the votes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a candidate for the UK Conservative party is declared the winner of the 2023 Mid Bedfordshire election, as reported by the [BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/).", "fine_print": "This question will resolve as the first by-election being held before 2024. 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On June 9, 2023, Dorries unexpectedly announced she was resigning as MP \"with immediate effect\", triggering a [by-election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Mid_Bedfordshire_by-election). However, she then delayed formally resigning until August 29, with the by-election now being scheduled for October 19, 2023. \n\nThe Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, Greens and others have all selected candidates: The Conservatives have selected Bedfordshire Police Commissioner [Festus Akinbusoye](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Festus_Akinbusoye) as their candidate. Labour chose Alistair Strathern, a former math teacher, London councillor and Bank of England climate lead. The Liberal Democrats selected local councillor Emma Holland-Lindsay. Other candidates include Reform UK's Dave Holland, independent councillor Gareth Mackey, and candidates from the Greens and other parties. \n\nThe seat is expected to be closely fought, with polling form early September showing Conservatives and Labour at 29% and Lib Dems at 22%. At the last election (2019 general election), Dorries won the constituency with a majority of [24,664 votes](https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3603/election/397), that being 59.8% of the votes." }, { "id": 19192, "title": "Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "MONUSCO DRC Extension By 2024?", "url_title": "MONUSCO DRC Extension By 2024?", "slug": "monusco-drc-extension-by-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-03T20:41:29.685769Z", "published_at": "2023-11-15T20:12:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.479070Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-15T20:12:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-15T20:12:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19192, "title": "Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-03T20:41:29.685769Z", "open_time": "2023-11-15T20:12:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-20T20:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-20T20:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 1999, the [United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MONUSCO) (MONUSCO) has been active in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to aid in stabilizing the region during and after the [Second Congo War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War). The original mission was known as the United Nations Organization Mission in Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC) until 2010 when it was replaced by MONUSCO. [According to the UN](https://monusco.unmissions.org/en/about):\n\n>The new mission has been authorized to use all necessary means to carry out its mandate relating, among other things, to the protection of civilians, humanitarian personnel and human rights defenders under imminent threat of physical violence and to support the Government of the DRC in its stabilization and peace consolidation efforts.\n\nMONUSCO has been [planning for a withdrawal](https://press.un.org/en/2020/sc14374.doc.htm) from the DRC, however in September of 2023 DRC President Felix-Antoine Tshisekedi [insisted](https://apnews.com/article/congo-peacekeeping-united-nations-85bbfdfa87553d876800dfbdfd6be9b5) that the start of MONUSCO's \"accelerated retreat\" should begin a year sooner, at the end of December 2023. Following Tshisekedi's statement, the UN Security Council \"[expressed its readiness to decide](https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15443.doc.htm), by the end of this year and as a matter of priority, the future of MONUSCO and its gradual, responsible and sustainable withdrawal, as well as realistic and concrete steps to be taken in that regard.\"\n\nThe UN had [extended the MONUSCO mandate for one year](https://press.un.org/en/2022/sc15152.doc.htm) on December 20, 2022, authorizing a troop ceiling [as follows](https://monusco.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/resolution_2666_2022_0.pdf):\n\n>. . . MONUSCO’s authorised troop ceiling will comprise 13,500\nmilitary personnel, 660 military observers and staff officers, 591 police personnel, and 1,410 personnel of formed police units, and *invites* the Secretariat to consider further reduction of MONUSCO’s level of military deployment, in line with the joint strategy on the progressive and phased drawdown of MONUSCO ([S/2020/1041](https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N20/287/47/PDF/N2028747.pdf?OpenElement)).\n\nAn August 2023 Report of the Secretary-General](https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/options-adapting-configuration-monusco-and-future-united-nations-configuration-country-beyond-current-mandate-mission-report-secretary-general-s2023574-enarruzh) described options for the future of the mission and included the following paragraph:\n\n>As a first step towards the Mission’s full withdrawal, the force would consolidate its presence in the 13 high-risk territories of Ituri, as well as North and South Kivu. This would be accompanied by a rationalization of permanent and temporary bases that would allow the force to reduce its reliance on framework battalions in favour of units that are more fit for purpose in the current context. All units from South Kivu (southern sector) would subsequently be repatriated together with one static framework battalion from North Kivu (central sector) and some specialist units, military observers and staff officers, resulting in a reduction of its current deployed strength from 12,500 to approximately 10,500 military personnel. As the Mission’s focus shifts to North Kivu and Ituri, it would nonetheless retain projection capacity for South Kivu. The generation of heavy artillery and attack helicopters to enable MONUSCO to support FARDC and maintain a credible posture vis-à-vis armed groups, both foreign and Congolese, would remain a priority.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 15, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, MONUSCO's mission has been renewed or extended with a troop ceiling of 11,000 \"military personnel\" or more.", "fine_print": "* Only the troop ceiling for \"military personnel\" will be counted for this question, other personnel such as military observers and staff officers, police personnel, or personnel of formed police units will be immaterial.\n* Actual deployed strength is immaterial to the question, this question only refers to the the authorized troop ceiling on \"military personnel\".\n* If the mandate is not renewed or otherwise extended this question will resolve as **No**.\n* The question will still resolve as **Yes** if the renewal or extension is referred to as something other than a mandate, so long as MONUSCO's mission in the DRC is extended for any period of time with a qualifying troop ceiling.", "post_id": 19192, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703081255.884865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703081255.884865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.8735840914124011 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.014505757420011789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0221885908364169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02737976958192116, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.025302524918872856, 0.0, 0.14890382667771362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02872939583514363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04113337300434987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010332993342669456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.03249305809127576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5811026862302572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07059083564021496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8561988567117307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06583685608684153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.431007191772122, 0.0, 0.004923348169013251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.932401629821202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038881009225659245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13778371961094252, 0.0, 0.04606515460131248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19519530604924692, 0.520886485512855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.326554045988642, 1.19659239643217, 0.34331951429497504, 0.0, 6.5210279649229 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.706321231006633, "coverage": 0.7323759213024112, "baseline_score": -64.10394831284319, "spot_peer_score": 6.523028312733383, "peer_archived_score": 18.706321231006633, "baseline_archived_score": -64.10394831284319, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.523028312733383 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702977077.750041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702977077.750041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.43357090779330343, 0.5664290922066966 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 392, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 1999, the [United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MONUSCO) (MONUSCO) has been active in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to aid in stabilizing the region during and after the [Second Congo War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War). The original mission was known as the United Nations Organization Mission in Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC) until 2010 when it was replaced by MONUSCO. [According to the UN](https://monusco.unmissions.org/en/about):\n\n>The new mission has been authorized to use all necessary means to carry out its mandate relating, among other things, to the protection of civilians, humanitarian personnel and human rights defenders under imminent threat of physical violence and to support the Government of the DRC in its stabilization and peace consolidation efforts.\n\nMONUSCO has been [planning for a withdrawal](https://press.un.org/en/2020/sc14374.doc.htm) from the DRC, however in September of 2023 DRC President Felix-Antoine Tshisekedi [insisted](https://apnews.com/article/congo-peacekeeping-united-nations-85bbfdfa87553d876800dfbdfd6be9b5) that the start of MONUSCO's \"accelerated retreat\" should begin a year sooner, at the end of December 2023. Following Tshisekedi's statement, the UN Security Council \"[expressed its readiness to decide](https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15443.doc.htm), by the end of this year and as a matter of priority, the future of MONUSCO and its gradual, responsible and sustainable withdrawal, as well as realistic and concrete steps to be taken in that regard.\"\n\nThe UN had [extended the MONUSCO mandate for one year](https://press.un.org/en/2022/sc15152.doc.htm) on December 20, 2022, authorizing a troop ceiling [as follows](https://monusco.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/resolution_2666_2022_0.pdf):\n\n>. . . MONUSCO’s authorised troop ceiling will comprise 13,500\nmilitary personnel, 660 military observers and staff officers, 591 police personnel, and 1,410 personnel of formed police units, and *invites* the Secretariat to consider further reduction of MONUSCO’s level of military deployment, in line with the joint strategy on the progressive and phased drawdown of MONUSCO ([S/2020/1041](https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N20/287/47/PDF/N2028747.pdf?OpenElement)).\n\nAn August 2023 Report of the Secretary-General](https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/options-adapting-configuration-monusco-and-future-united-nations-configuration-country-beyond-current-mandate-mission-report-secretary-general-s2023574-enarruzh) described options for the future of the mission and included the following paragraph:\n\n>As a first step towards the Mission’s full withdrawal, the force would consolidate its presence in the 13 high-risk territories of Ituri, as well as North and South Kivu. This would be accompanied by a rationalization of permanent and temporary bases that would allow the force to reduce its reliance on framework battalions in favour of units that are more fit for purpose in the current context. All units from South Kivu (southern sector) would subsequently be repatriated together with one static framework battalion from North Kivu (central sector) and some specialist units, military observers and staff officers, resulting in a reduction of its current deployed strength from 12,500 to approximately 10,500 military personnel. As the Mission’s focus shifts to North Kivu and Ituri, it would nonetheless retain projection capacity for South Kivu. The generation of heavy artillery and attack helicopters to enable MONUSCO to support FARDC and maintain a credible posture vis-à-vis armed groups, both foreign and Congolese, would remain a priority." }, { "id": 19173, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will a vote on the motion to vacate be held before October 4, 2023?", "short_title": "Vote on Motion to Vacate Before October 4?", "url_title": "Vote on Motion to Vacate Before October 4?", "slug": "vote-on-motion-to-vacate-before-october-4", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-03T14:53:50.313296Z", "published_at": "2023-10-03T15:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.690673Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-03T15:15:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-03T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-03T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T20:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T20:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-03T15:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19173, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will a vote on the motion to vacate be held before October 4, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-10-03T14:53:50.313296Z", "open_time": "2023-10-03T15:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-03T17:42:34.966360Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-03T17:42:34.966360Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T20:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T20:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-03T20:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-03T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 2, 2023, Representative Matt Gaetz [filed a motion to vacate the Office of Speaker of the House of Representatives](https://apnews.com/article/kevin-mccarthy-matt-gaetz-speaker-vacate-congress-e7e5ccc6cf79ccbf5b4a7b73b9d5a3ae) in a bid to oust Kevin McCarthy. The resolution requires a simple majority to pass, and upon passing Kevin McCarthy would be removed from his position. Republicans [hold 221 seats in the House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) and Democrats hold 212. Assuming all Democrats vote to remove McCarthy, five Republicans would have to vote in favor of the motion to vacate as well for it to pass. According to reporter Jake Sherman, [Matt Gaetz may have the votes against McCarthy](https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1709209301611409498). Sherman [also reports](https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1709200194967904314) that the vote is currently scheduled for 1 PM ET on October 3, 2023.\n\nAccording to [reporting from CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/03/politics/mccarthy-gaetz-vote-motion-to-vacate/index.html):\n\n>A vote on a resolution to remove the speaker could still be preempted, however, even once it is on track to come to the floor for consideration.\n>\n>For example, when the resolution is called up on the floor, a motion to table – or kill – the resolution could be offered and would be voted on first. That vote would also only require a simple majority to succeed – and if it did succeed then there would not be a vote directly on the resolution to remove the speaker because the resolution would instead be tabled.\n\n*See below for additional background regarding the motion to vacate from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18854/gop-calls-speaker-vote-before-october/)*\n\n---\n\n[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.\n\nThe rules for the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress adopt [those of the 117th Congress](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117/xml/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117.xml) with some amendments. The relevant portion of the rules is Rule IX, the text of which is quoted below. The [amended rules](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/5/text) remove subparagraph (3) of clause 2(a) (shown in bold).\n\n>1\\. Questions of privilege shall be, first, those affecting the rights of the House collectively, its safety, dignity, and the integrity of its proceedings; and second, those affecting the rights, reputation, and conduct of Members, Delegates, or the Resident Commissioner, individually, in their representative capacity only.\n>\n>2\\. (a)(1) A resolution reported as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered from the floor by the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered as privileged under clause 1, section 7, article I of the Constitution, shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn. A resolution offered from the floor by a Member, Delegate, or Resident Commissioner other than the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn only at a time or place, designated by the Speaker, in the legislative schedule within two legislative days after the day on which the proponent announces to the House an intention to offer the resolution and the form of the resolution. Oral announcement of the form of the resolution may be dispensed with by unanimous consent.\n>\n>(2) The time allotted for debate on a resolution offered from the floor as a question of the privileges of the House shall be equally divided between (A) the proponent of the resolution, and (B) the Majority Leader, the Minority Leader, or a designee, as determined by the Speaker.\n>\n>**(3) A resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker shall not be privileged except if offered by direction of a party caucus or conference.**\n>\n>(b) A question of personal privilege shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 4, 2023 (Eastern Time), a vote is held in the US House of Representatives on final passage of the [motion to vacate submitted by Representative Matt Gaetz on October 2, 2023](https://apnews.com/article/kevin-mccarthy-matt-gaetz-speaker-vacate-congress-e7e5ccc6cf79ccbf5b4a7b73b9d5a3ae).", "fine_print": "Procedural votes are immaterial for this question, only a vote on final passage of the resolution qualifies.", "post_id": 19173, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696355839.429423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696355839.429423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.637095314963163 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.642259645785801, "coverage": 0.9566539495882362, "baseline_score": 28.4531584711508, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 5.642259645785801, "baseline_archived_score": 28.4531584711508, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696355839.459709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696355839.459709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6128760214074698, 0.38712397859253017 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 2, 2023, Representative Matt Gaetz [filed a motion to vacate the Office of Speaker of the House of Representatives](https://apnews.com/article/kevin-mccarthy-matt-gaetz-speaker-vacate-congress-e7e5ccc6cf79ccbf5b4a7b73b9d5a3ae) in a bid to oust Kevin McCarthy. The resolution requires a simple majority to pass, and upon passing Kevin McCarthy would be removed from his position. Republicans [hold 221 seats in the House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) and Democrats hold 212. Assuming all Democrats vote to remove McCarthy, five Republicans would have to vote in favor of the motion to vacate as well for it to pass. According to reporter Jake Sherman, [Matt Gaetz may have the votes against McCarthy](https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1709209301611409498). Sherman [also reports](https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1709200194967904314) that the vote is currently scheduled for 1 PM ET on October 3, 2023.\n\nAccording to [reporting from CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/03/politics/mccarthy-gaetz-vote-motion-to-vacate/index.html):\n\n>A vote on a resolution to remove the speaker could still be preempted, however, even once it is on track to come to the floor for consideration.\n>\n>For example, when the resolution is called up on the floor, a motion to table – or kill – the resolution could be offered and would be voted on first. That vote would also only require a simple majority to succeed – and if it did succeed then there would not be a vote directly on the resolution to remove the speaker because the resolution would instead be tabled.\n\n*See below for additional background regarding the motion to vacate from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18854/gop-calls-speaker-vote-before-october/)*\n\n---\n\n[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.\n\nThe rules for the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress adopt [those of the 117th Congress](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117/xml/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117.xml) with some amendments. The relevant portion of the rules is Rule IX, the text of which is quoted below. The [amended rules](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/5/text) remove subparagraph (3) of clause 2(a) (shown in bold).\n\n>1\\. Questions of privilege shall be, first, those affecting the rights of the House collectively, its safety, dignity, and the integrity of its proceedings; and second, those affecting the rights, reputation, and conduct of Members, Delegates, or the Resident Commissioner, individually, in their representative capacity only.\n>\n>2\\. (a)(1) A resolution reported as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered from the floor by the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered as privileged under clause 1, section 7, article I of the Constitution, shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn. A resolution offered from the floor by a Member, Delegate, or Resident Commissioner other than the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn only at a time or place, designated by the Speaker, in the legislative schedule within two legislative days after the day on which the proponent announces to the House an intention to offer the resolution and the form of the resolution. Oral announcement of the form of the resolution may be dispensed with by unanimous consent.\n>\n>(2) The time allotted for debate on a resolution offered from the floor as a question of the privileges of the House shall be equally divided between (A) the proponent of the resolution, and (B) the Majority Leader, the Minority Leader, or a designee, as determined by the Speaker.\n>\n>**(3) A resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker shall not be privileged except if offered by direction of a party caucus or conference.**\n>\n>(b) A question of personal privilege shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn." } ] }
