Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3400
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3420", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3380", "results": [ { "id": 15253, "title": "Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?", "short_title": "US alleges Russia exceeds New START limits?", "url_title": "US alleges Russia exceeds New START limits?", "slug": "us-alleges-russia-exceeds-new-start-limits", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119767, "username": "PhilippSchoenegger" }, { "id": 118883, "username": "Scoblic" } ], "created_at": "2023-02-21T21:15:49.347485Z", "published_at": "2023-02-27T17:09:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.376177Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-27T17:09:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-27T17:09:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15253, "title": "Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-02-21T21:15:49.347485Z", "open_time": "2023-02-27T17:09:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-01T17:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-01T17:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T12:06:20.658709Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The [New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START)](https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/140035.pdf) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty signed by the United States and Russia in 2010. The treaty imposes [limits](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) on the number of deployed strategic nuclear arms, though it [does not](https://theatlasnews.co/conflict/2023/02/21/russia-officially-suspends-new-start-treaty/) limit the number of operationally inactive warheads. See below for the treaty limits and the [September 2022 data](https://www.state.gov/new-start-treaty-aggregate-numbers-of-strategic-offensive-arms-3/) on actual deployments:\n\n| Type | Limit | US | Russia |\n|--------------------------------------|-------|-----|--------|\n| Deployed missiles and bombers | 700 | 659 | 540 |\n| Deployed warheads (RVs and bombers) | 1,550 | 1420 | 1549 |\n| Deployed and non-deployed launchers (missile tubes and bombers) | 800 | 800 | 759 |\n\n\nThe treaty also includes [verification and transparency measures](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) to ensure compliance with its terms. The New START treaty replaced the START treaty, which had expired in 2009. The treaty was extended in 2021 for five years by the United States and Russia, maintaining its limits on nuclear arms.\n\nIn early February 2023, the U.S. State Department [reported](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-says-russia-has-violated-nuclear-arms-treaty-by-blocking-inspections-11675183584) that Russia was in \"noncompliance\" with the treaty because it refused to allow on-site inspections and had cancelled a meeting of the Bilateral Consultative Commission, a body the treaty established to address such concerns.\n\nOn February 21, 2023, Vladimir Putin [announced](https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-suspends-new-start-nuclear-arms-treaty-with-u-s-6498b44) in his State of the Nation address that Russia was [suspending its participation in the treaty](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/21/what-is-new-start-treaty/), suggesting that it will not permit inspections or meet with U.S. representatives via the Bilateral Consultative Commission. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that [Russia will continue to honor the New START limits](https://twitter.com/russianforces/status/1628082666498142213?cxt=HHwWisC9meWjjpgtAAAA).\n\n***Will the US claim Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?***\n\nThis question resolves as \"Yes\" if, before 2025, reputable sources report that US officials have concluded Russia has exceeded New START's limits.\n\nThe question will also resolve as \"Yes\" if Russia itself announces it will no longer abide by New START limits.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15253, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654659.923392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654659.923392, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.15262302540036696 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.883868694722232, 1.2925770816257216, 1.0774142301392209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.2961892157721111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.3325315572279212, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05855889144026411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.32556451098095357, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553, 0.014010486522538886, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18729506327225287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23985886050566377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07852785756278537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190235437913919 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 6.955090281871182, "peer_score": 33.35818598902389, "coverage": 0.9998447531088579, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998447531088579, "spot_peer_score": -18.22184398425894, "spot_baseline_score": -2.914634565951651, "baseline_archived_score": 6.955090281871182, "peer_archived_score": 33.35818598902389, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -18.22184398425894, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -2.914634565951651 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287663.023898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287663.023898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9519587461929946, 0.04804125380700541 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 15249, "title": "On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?", "short_title": "Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?", "url_title": "Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?", "slug": "donald-trump-as-third-party-candidate-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-21T19:50:59.622431Z", "published_at": "2023-02-23T19:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.617603Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-23T19:54:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T20:38:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-23T19:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 137, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15249, "title": "On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?", "created_at": "2023-02-21T19:50:59.622431Z", "open_time": "2023-02-23T19:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-25T19:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-25T19:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T20:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-06T20:43:26.273639Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)\n\n* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n\n----\n\nAs of February 21, 2023, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley have both declared their campaigns for the [Republican Nomination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries) for the 2024 US Presidential Election. [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Nationwide_polling) shows Trump as the leading candidate among Republican voters, ahead of the second-place candidate Ron DeSantis (who has not openly declared his interest in campaigning). Prediction market aggregator [ElectionBettingOdds](https://electionbettingodds.com/GOPPrimary2024.html) shows both Trump and DeSantis as the most likely winners of the Republican Nomination.\n\n[The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/trump-arsonist-turns-his-own-party/672956/) reported in February 2023:\n\n>[...] [The survey](https://www.thebulwark.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Republican_Presidential_Primary_Toplines.pdf) found that a large majority of Republicans are ready to move on from Trump—but at the same time, more than a quarter of likely Republican voters are ready to follow Trump to a third-party bid. Two days after the poll results were released, Trump was asked in an interview whether, if he lost the nomination, he would support the GOP nominee. Trump [answered](https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-refuses-to-commit-to-backing-the-republican-nominee-in-2024/), “It would have to depend on who the nominee was.” Translation: no.\n\nThe 2024 US Presidential Election is [currently scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) for November 5, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on the date of the US Presidential Election in 2024, both of these conditions are true:\n\n* Donald Trump is actively campaigning for the office of US President in 2024,\n\n* and Trump is not listed as either the nominee of the Republican (or Democratic) party in 26 or more US states.\n\nFor this question, Trump may not be nominated by the Republican or Democratic party for any reason: he may start his own party, join another third-party, campaign as an independent, or he may claim to be a Republican but not recieve the party's endorsement, asking voters to write him in.\n\nIf Trump is not campaigning for the election by election day, or if he recieves the Republican (or Democratic) nomination on election day, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThe determination of whether Trump is considered to be \"actively campaigning\" will be at the discretion of Metaculus Admins.", "fine_print": "In this question, the [District of Columbia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C.) is included as a US State.\n\nThe date of the US Presidential Election will be the date when polls are open for in-person voting in 26 or more US States (currently scheduled for November 5, 2024). If there is no such date occurring between October 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 15249, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730618989.546153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730618989.546153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 136, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.003844555338140146 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.69438965670116, 2.7502286066328447, 0.02124456642863366, 0.031430438618802556, 0.0037758065654080897, 0.04949628442059459, 0.0, 0.002256050802275833, 0.19105604948152816, 0.0008423389302437025, 0.042399863592607674, 0.006364425809124403, 0.01748991790431776, 0.00099177939923633, 0.0, 9.979284736472126e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005995908196933223, 0.0, 0.0014118077887880845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001078003209765585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0070796530256330165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00031708124795599746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034758932254840076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00047041099417110144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020354445404906755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004142999028042924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00027525787441196156 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.63831472266213, "peer_score": 13.527390332691658, "coverage": 0.9998487203401907, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998487203401907, "spot_peer_score": 3.0623540169833534, "baseline_archived_score": 93.63831472266213, "peer_archived_score": 13.527390332691658, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.0623540169833534 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287127.20107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287127.20107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 352, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)\n\n* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n\n----\n\nAs of February 21, 2023, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley have both declared their campaigns for the [Republican Nomination](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries) for the 2024 US Presidential Election. [Early polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Nationwide_polling) shows Trump as the leading candidate among Republican voters, ahead of the second-place candidate Ron DeSantis (who has not openly declared his interest in campaigning). Prediction market aggregator [ElectionBettingOdds](https://electionbettingodds.com/GOPPrimary2024.html) shows both Trump and DeSantis as the most likely winners of the Republican Nomination.\n\n[The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/trump-arsonist-turns-his-own-party/672956/) reported in February 2023:\n\n>[...] [The survey](https://www.thebulwark.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Republican_Presidential_Primary_Toplines.pdf) found that a large majority of Republicans are ready to move on from Trump—but at the same time, more than a quarter of likely Republican voters are ready to follow Trump to a third-party bid. Two days after the poll results were released, Trump was asked in an interview whether, if he lost the nomination, he would support the GOP nominee. Trump [answered](https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-refuses-to-commit-to-backing-the-republican-nominee-in-2024/), “It would have to depend on who the nominee was.” Translation: no.\n\nThe 2024 US Presidential Election is [currently scheduled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) for November 5, 2024." }, { "id": 15248, "title": "Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?", "short_title": "Bard Available on March 5th?", "url_title": "Bard Available on March 5th?", "slug": "bard-available-on-march-5th", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-21T19:24:37.971018Z", "published_at": "2023-02-24T20:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.990340Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-24T20:45:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-03T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-03T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-05T23:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-05T23:11:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-24T20:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15248, "title": "Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-21T19:24:37.971018Z", "open_time": "2023-02-24T20:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-25T05:55:02.964375Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-25T05:55:02.964375Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-05T23:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-05T23:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-05T23:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-03T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-03T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On February 6th, Google announced the launch of [Bard](https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search-updates/), their AI powered search tool, set to compete with ChatGPT and a GPT-enabled Bing search. \n\nWhile the tool was demo-ed during their launch announcement, it's still not available. Google said they would be \"...opening it up to trusted testers ahead of making it more widely available to the public in the coming weeks.\"\n\nThere have been [reports](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/google-ceo-some-of-companys-top-products-were-not-first-to-market.html) that all Google employees are participating in internal testing in advance of it's open release.\n\n***Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th?***\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the general public has access to Bard on March 5th, as confirmed via public statements from Google. If Google chooses to release the feature to a small subset of users, this question will resolve yes if more than 5 Metaculus employees (on our team of 25) report that they have access to Bard on March 5th.\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*\n\n[fine-print]\nIf Bard becomes available the general public before March 5th, this question will resolve immediately.\n\nThis question only deals with the release of Bard. If Bard is released but then access is removed or retracted, that will not affect the resolution of this question.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15248, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677869721.110409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677869721.110409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04394540860312451 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.70595880657378, 6.098818131394771, 2.468180884801515, 2.799467772372289, 0.1304385332435757, 1.080164662397325, 0.05027486667530541, 0.1387956470281653, 0.46373773536029544, 0.0, 0.6350355141884612, 0.0022175754150273726, 0.0664241813177146, 0.0, 0.011358522086374995, 0.1029390209692679, 0.013931281558975482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, 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"question": { "id": 15247, "title": "Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on March 7, 2023 than there was on March 7, 2022?", "created_at": "2023-02-21T18:59:10.683166Z", "open_time": "2023-02-24T20:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-25T08:11:30.038037Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-25T08:11:30.038037Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-08T16:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-08T16:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-08T16:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-02T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-02T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Antarctic sea ice is a vital component of the Earth's climate system, covering an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent. \n\nDuring the summer in the southern hemisphere, sea ice is at a minimum. In February 2023, Antarctic sea ice levels hit [new record lows](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64649596), breaking the previous record set just a year earlier. As of February 20th, 2023, Antarctic sea ice extends 1.812 million square kilometers, the fewest ever measured.\n\nTypically, sea ice levels begin to recover in late February or early March.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the data reported in [the Antarctic version of this graph](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) from the National Snow & Ice Data Center.\n\nThe question resolves as \"Yes\" if the measured sea ice for March 7, 2023 extends more than the 2.145 million square kilometers recorded on March 7, 2022. Otherwise, the question resolves as \"No\".\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15247, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677779911.445594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677779911.445594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.23733160964976502 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.8058482268925964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031250959703169254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6844047848430631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0266252491310373, 0.8297489313986528, 1.632690028752381, 0.0, 0.02678127518047141, 1.4827401847945825, 0.0, 0.201735432899662, 0.16824568062905945, 0.0, 1.1843479018844234, 0.5974353110988754, 0.0, 0.13033687733268498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22518626811013776, 0.0, 0.49680014682221674, 0.42052548288015196, 0.3542447088992047, 0.2472970147271662, 0.0, 0.13717490894663273, 0.047802726739546664, 0.05451133392988236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006407544366770682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11083038735431396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09924199395337108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07000249760431822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.2694246788285435, "coverage": 0.9992647000762076, "baseline_score": 49.97398793091809, "spot_peer_score": 8.932933293319588, "peer_archived_score": 6.2694246788285435, "baseline_archived_score": 49.97398793091809, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.932933293319588 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677779911.462945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677779911.462945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8644631353666986, 0.13553686463330136 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Antarctic sea ice is a vital component of the Earth's climate system, covering an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent. \n\nDuring the summer in the southern hemisphere, sea ice is at a minimum. In February 2023, Antarctic sea ice levels hit [new record lows](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64649596), breaking the previous record set just a year earlier. As of February 20th, 2023, Antarctic sea ice extends 1.812 million square kilometers, the fewest ever measured.\n\nTypically, sea ice levels begin to recover in late February or early March." }, { "id": 15246, "title": "Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?", "short_title": "Russia taking over Belarus before 2030", "url_title": "Russia taking over Belarus before 2030", "slug": "russia-taking-over-belarus-before-2030", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [ { "id": 130973, "username": "NMorrison" } ], "created_at": "2023-02-21T13:40:45.007182Z", "published_at": "2023-02-26T00:11:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T04:09:15.558584Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-26T00:11:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-02-26T00:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15246, "title": "Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-02-21T13:40:45.007182Z", "open_time": "2023-02-26T00:11:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-28T00:11:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-28T00:11:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February 2023, [Yahoo News](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html) (as well as Delfi Estonia, the Dossier Center, Expressen, Kyiv Independent, and others) received a leaked internal strategy document from Putin’s executive office. This document outlines a detailed plan of Russia taking full control over Belarus by 2030. Since the signing of the [Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus in 1999](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Treaty-on-the-Creation-of-a-Union-State), Russia and Belarus have been in the supranational union called the [Union State](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State). As described on the website of the [President of the Public of Belarus](https://president.gov.by/en/belarus/economics/economic-integration/union-state#:~:text=The%20Republic%20of%20Belarus%20and,phase%2Dby%2Dphase%20principle.): \n\n> Under the Treaty, Belarus and Russia have set a number of important guidelines, one of which is the establishment of the common economic space. This goal is achieved on the phase-by-phase principle. The partnership between Belarus and Russia is built on the principles of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the states, responsible fulfillment by the parties of their international obligations. \n\nThis is in contrast to the leaked strategy document which outlines the following goals, according to [Yahoo News](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html): \n\n> [T]he end goal is the formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030. Everything involved in the merger of the two countries has been considered, including the “harmonization” of Belarusian laws with those of the Russian Federation; a “coordinated foreign and defense policy” and “trade and economic cooperation … on the basis of the priority” of Russian interests; and “ensuring the predominant influence of the Russian Federation in the socio-political, trade-economic, scientific-educational and cultural-information spheres.”\n\n> In practice, this would eliminate whatever remains of Belarus’s sovereignty and reduce a country about the size of Kansas, with 9.3 million people, to the status of a Moscow satellite. It would put Belarusians at the mercy of the Kremlin’s priorities, whether in agriculture, industry, espionage or war. And it would pose a security threat to Belarus’s European neighbors, three of which — Latvia, Lithuania and Poland — are members of NATO and the European Union.\n\nThe document mentions a variety of measures planned, among them (i) ‘passportization’ (handing out Russian passports to local people), (ii) single monetary currency (introduction of one currency for both countries), and (iii) foreign policy (such as decisions of war). At the moment, the Union State between Russia and Belarus fulfils neither of these three criteria. Belarusian citizens are not handed Russian passports, Belarus has its [own currency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarusian_ruble), and Belarus is able to make its own foreign policy decisions as seen in the decision of the [Belarusian Armed Forces to not participate in the invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarusian_involvement_in_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#:~:text=As%20of%20early%202023%2C%20the,into%20Ukraine%20unless%20attacked%20first.).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least two of the three conditions outlined below are satisfied. \n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if Belarus ceases being an independent country and is officially incorporated into Russia. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if one or fewer of the three conditions below are satisfied. \n\nCondition 1 (Passportization): There are media reports by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that Russian passports are handed out to Belarusian citizens on a widespread basis.\n\nCondition 2 (Single Monetary Currency): The official currency of Belarus and Russia is the same.\n\nCondition 3 (Common Foreign Policy): There are media reports by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that report that Russia is directing Belarus’ foreign policy. Condition 3 also resolves if the Belarusian Foreign Office or the office of the President of Belarus are subsumed in their Russian counterparts or merged. Condition 3 also resolves if there are credible reports that the Russian military has assumed de-facto control over the Belarusian military", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15246, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758499598.174744, "end_time": 1758766457.935371, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758499598.174744, "end_time": 1758766457.935371, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3789161109154619 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0310037132841803, 0.0, 0.1288081896360328, 0.0, 0.3982512993148556, 0.6772234049729915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4704287498952961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4018484312237822, 0.21189784639931528, 0.0, 0.3164420601480945, 0.4809124400084825, 0.0, 0.7766095266652526, 0.0, 0.00901689498641295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7969395752648925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014275861551769443, 0.0, 0.5105479628479205, 0.0, 0.0006006204798844153, 0.26682235387251435, 0.0, 0.012783181577003842, 0.0, 0.03185388076940161, 0.11096823546370398, 0.0, 1.2645672552277, 0.0, 0.4352821374375108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3227849667042308, 0.0, 0.058909031357943696, 0.11117336723783054, 0.13124246554052282, 0.11018887996951057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013346326304123723, 0.6767311454079801, 0.006157382690986979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5239242875781319, 1.5362606585373895, 0.3758688244555032, 0.1601313494724224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8922909885556951, 0.0, 0.7949821644089254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2775021963486394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024705024163893547, 0.001078956545637215, 0.029005835526161147, 0.003449647572140941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41665596961442203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021671421535911298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006958287515456428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3485530845596023 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289316.896656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289316.896656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7305017699298084, 0.26949823007019164 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 217, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February 2023, [Yahoo News](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html) (as well as Delfi Estonia, the Dossier Center, Expressen, Kyiv Independent, and others) received a leaked internal strategy document from Putin’s executive office. This document outlines a detailed plan of Russia taking full control over Belarus by 2030. Since the signing of the [Treaty on the Creation of a Union State of Russia and Belarus in 1999](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Treaty-on-the-Creation-of-a-Union-State), Russia and Belarus have been in the supranational union called the [Union State](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State). As described on the website of the [President of the Public of Belarus](https://president.gov.by/en/belarus/economics/economic-integration/union-state#:~:text=The%20Republic%20of%20Belarus%20and,phase%2Dby%2Dphase%20principle.): \n\n> Under the Treaty, Belarus and Russia have set a number of important guidelines, one of which is the establishment of the common economic space. This goal is achieved on the phase-by-phase principle. The partnership between Belarus and Russia is built on the principles of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the states, responsible fulfillment by the parties of their international obligations. \n\nThis is in contrast to the leaked strategy document which outlines the following goals, according to [Yahoo News](https://news.yahoo.com/russia-belarus-strategy-document-230035184.html): \n\n> [T]he end goal is the formation of a so-called Union State of Russia and Belarus by no later than 2030. Everything involved in the merger of the two countries has been considered, including the “harmonization” of Belarusian laws with those of the Russian Federation; a “coordinated foreign and defense policy” and “trade and economic cooperation … on the basis of the priority” of Russian interests; and “ensuring the predominant influence of the Russian Federation in the socio-political, trade-economic, scientific-educational and cultural-information spheres.”\n\n> In practice, this would eliminate whatever remains of Belarus’s sovereignty and reduce a country about the size of Kansas, with 9.3 million people, to the status of a Moscow satellite. It would put Belarusians at the mercy of the Kremlin’s priorities, whether in agriculture, industry, espionage or war. And it would pose a security threat to Belarus’s European neighbors, three of which — Latvia, Lithuania and Poland — are members of NATO and the European Union.\n\nThe document mentions a variety of measures planned, among them (i) ‘passportization’ (handing out Russian passports to local people), (ii) single monetary currency (introduction of one currency for both countries), and (iii) foreign policy (such as decisions of war). At the moment, the Union State between Russia and Belarus fulfils neither of these three criteria. Belarusian citizens are not handed Russian passports, Belarus has its [own currency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarusian_ruble), and Belarus is able to make its own foreign policy decisions as seen in the decision of the [Belarusian Armed Forces to not participate in the invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarusian_involvement_in_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#:~:text=As%20of%20early%202023%2C%20the,into%20Ukraine%20unless%20attacked%20first.)." }, { "id": 15227, "title": "Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?", "short_title": "EU outperforming US and China on Climate?", "url_title": "EU outperforming US and China on Climate?", "slug": "eu-outperforming-us-and-china-on-climate", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-20T15:32:19.105735Z", "published_at": "2023-03-04T00:03:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:13:21.641017Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-04T00:03:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-04T00:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15227, "title": "Will the EU rank above the US and China every year until 2030, according to the Climate Change Performance Index?", "created_at": "2023-02-20T15:32:19.105735Z", "open_time": "2023-03-04T00:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-06T00:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-06T00:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Most countries worldwide have increased their focus on tackling climate change, pledging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, increasing subsidies for renewable energies, and further public policy aimed at climate. The three major trading blocs/countries, the European Union, the United States of America, and China, contribute to a [substantial portion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE?locations=EU-US-CN&name_desc=true) of overall emissions, with China currently emitting more than the other two combined. In [per capita terms](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=EU-US-CN), the US is ahead of both the EU and China, who are on more similar levels. \n\nAccording to Climate Action Tracker, China’s overall rating of its climate action is classified as ‘[highly insufficient](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/)’ while both the [US](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/) and the [EU](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu/) are classified as ‘insufficient’. However, the EU has positioned itself as a [leader on climate](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/eu-climate-change/) with its comprehensive ‘[2030 climate & energy framework](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/climate-strategies-targets/2030-climate-energy-framework_en)’. Recently, with the [Inflation Reduction Act](https://www.iea.org/policies/16156-inflation-reduction-act-of-2022), the US has also significantly stepped up its efforts to combat climate change, while China has lagged both the EU and the US while also announcing their [own efforts](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/how-is-china-tackling-climate-change/).\n\nSo far, the EU has ranked above the US and China in almost all climate-related indices like the Climate Change Performance Index, which ranks the EU at #19, China at #51, and the US at #52. The Climate Change Performance Index ([CCPI](https://ccpi.org/)) is an annual report that evaluates and compares the climate protection performance of 57 countries and the European Union. The methodology behind the CCPI involves a combination of quantitative and qualitative indicators that assess each country's climate policies and their implementation. The CCPI evaluates each country based on four categories: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Renewable Energy, Energy Use, and Climate Policy. Each category has a different weight assigned to it, and the indicators within each category are given different scores based on their relevance and importance.\n\nFor summaries of the three blocs/countries, see [below](https://ccpi.org/wp-content/uploads/CCPI-2023-Results-3.pdf):\n\n> The EU receives a medium rating in the GHG Emissions, Renewable Energy, and Energy Use categories. In Climate Policy, it receives a high, reflecting the progress the supranational union has made in this category since a year before.\n\n> In the GHG Emissions and Energy Use categories, [China] ranks very low. However, because of its strong renewable energy development over the past years, China rates high in the Renewable Energy category. For Climate Policy, it receives a medium.\n\n> The US receives a very low in the GHG Emissions, Renewable Energy, and Energy Use categories, though rates a medium in Climate Policy.\n\nUnderstanding both absolute levels of emissions/policy responses and relative positions of major countries and blocs is central to understanding future progress on climate change.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the European Union ranks above the United States of America and China for the years 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030 based on the [Climate Change Performance Index](https://ccpi.org/) of the respective year.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the European Union does not rank above the United States of America and China for the years 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030 based on the [Climate Change Performance Index](https://ccpi.org/) of the respective year.\n\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the European Union, the United States of America, China (or more than one) are not listed in the CCPI report for any of the relevant years", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15227, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757639591.220047, "end_time": 1759570256.507667, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757639591.220047, "end_time": 1759570256.507667, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9234883470472325 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3723319537601757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25271388720088966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8535808309367152, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2933139079846811, 0.06319068684551034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.6280536747553405, 1.0782789458249349, 1.753976749639047, 0.0, 1.27204096395582 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288902.542043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288902.542043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11554354797477395, 0.884456452025226 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Most countries worldwide have increased their focus on tackling climate change, pledging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, increasing subsidies for renewable energies, and further public policy aimed at climate. The three major trading blocs/countries, the European Union, the United States of America, and China, contribute to a [substantial portion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE?locations=EU-US-CN&name_desc=true) of overall emissions, with China currently emitting more than the other two combined. In [per capita terms](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=EU-US-CN), the US is ahead of both the EU and China, who are on more similar levels. \n\nAccording to Climate Action Tracker, China’s overall rating of its climate action is classified as ‘[highly insufficient](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/china/)’ while both the [US](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/usa/) and the [EU](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/eu/) are classified as ‘insufficient’. However, the EU has positioned itself as a [leader on climate](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/eu-climate-change/) with its comprehensive ‘[2030 climate & energy framework](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/climate-strategies-targets/2030-climate-energy-framework_en)’. Recently, with the [Inflation Reduction Act](https://www.iea.org/policies/16156-inflation-reduction-act-of-2022), the US has also significantly stepped up its efforts to combat climate change, while China has lagged both the EU and the US while also announcing their [own efforts](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/explainers/how-is-china-tackling-climate-change/).\n\nSo far, the EU has ranked above the US and China in almost all climate-related indices like the Climate Change Performance Index, which ranks the EU at #19, China at #51, and the US at #52. The Climate Change Performance Index ([CCPI](https://ccpi.org/)) is an annual report that evaluates and compares the climate protection performance of 57 countries and the European Union. The methodology behind the CCPI involves a combination of quantitative and qualitative indicators that assess each country's climate policies and their implementation. The CCPI evaluates each country based on four categories: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Renewable Energy, Energy Use, and Climate Policy. Each category has a different weight assigned to it, and the indicators within each category are given different scores based on their relevance and importance.\n\nFor summaries of the three blocs/countries, see [below](https://ccpi.org/wp-content/uploads/CCPI-2023-Results-3.pdf):\n\n> The EU receives a medium rating in the GHG Emissions, Renewable Energy, and Energy Use categories. In Climate Policy, it receives a high, reflecting the progress the supranational union has made in this category since a year before.\n\n> In the GHG Emissions and Energy Use categories, [China] ranks very low. However, because of its strong renewable energy development over the past years, China rates high in the Renewable Energy category. For Climate Policy, it receives a medium.\n\n> The US receives a very low in the GHG Emissions, Renewable Energy, and Energy Use categories, though rates a medium in Climate Policy.\n\nUnderstanding both absolute levels of emissions/policy responses and relative positions of major countries and blocs is central to understanding future progress on climate change." }, { "id": 15226, "title": "Will there be a driver fatality in the NASCAR Cup Series before 2050?", "short_title": "NASCAR Fatality before 2050", "url_title": "NASCAR Fatality before 2050", "slug": "nascar-fatality-before-2050", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-20T13:25:36.450275Z", "published_at": "2023-03-23T17:13:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.657936Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-23T17:13:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-23T17:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 15226, "title": "Will there be a driver fatality in the NASCAR Cup Series before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-02-20T13:25:36.450275Z", "open_time": "2023-03-23T17:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-25T17:13:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-25T17:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the [tragic passing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Dale_Earnhardt) of NASCAR legend Dale Earnhardt Sr on the last lap of the 2001 Daytona 500, there have been no driver fatalities in any of NASCAR's three highest series. [Five more](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NASCAR_fatalities) drivers perished in lower-leveled series between 2001 and 2009, but none have since. This is [likely due](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2712394-7-changes-nascar-has-made-to-make-the-sport-safer) to the increased emphasis NASCAR has placed on driver safety by modifying the cars and rules of the sport.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point from March 23, 2023 to December 31, 2049 a driver running part or full-time in the NASCAR Cup Series dies while performing driver duties in a NASCAR Cup Series sanctioned event. Resolution will be determined by an official statement from NASCAR confirming the driver fatality during a sanctioned event.", "fine_print": "If a driver dies due to a pre-existing health condition, the question will resolve as **Yes** only if the driver's safety was comprised by racing and caused the health condition to induce death. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 15226, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740532027.577733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.505 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740532027.577733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.505 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.495, 0.505 ], "means": [ 0.4824719447128822 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.2294348988188281, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7425388270802858 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289672.587864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289672.587864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6027555822082912, 0.3972444177917088 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the [tragic passing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Dale_Earnhardt) of NASCAR legend Dale Earnhardt Sr on the last lap of the 2001 Daytona 500, there have been no driver fatalities in any of NASCAR's three highest series. [Five more](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NASCAR_fatalities) drivers perished in lower-leveled series between 2001 and 2009, but none have since. This is [likely due](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2712394-7-changes-nascar-has-made-to-make-the-sport-safer) to the increased emphasis NASCAR has placed on driver safety by modifying the cars and rules of the sport." }, { "id": 15220, "title": "Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?", "short_title": "Arctic Sea Ice Below 2012 Minimum", "url_title": "Arctic Sea Ice Below 2012 Minimum", "slug": "arctic-sea-ice-below-2012-minimum", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-18T15:32:34.257382Z", "published_at": "2023-03-03T21:49:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.425098Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-03T21:49:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-08T12:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-08T12:36:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-03T21:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15220, "title": "Will the Arctic sea ice extent be lower on each day of 2023 compared to that of 2012?", "created_at": "2023-02-18T15:32:34.257382Z", "open_time": "2023-03-03T21:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-05T21:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-05T21:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-08T12:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-08T12:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-08T12:36:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Arctic sea ice extent refers to the amount of ice cover on the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. The extent of Arctic sea ice varies seasonally, reaching a minimum in late summer and a maximum in late winter. The long-term trend for Arctic sea ice extent has been a decrease, with a record low being reached in 2012, when the sea ice extent shrank to 3.39 million square kilometers. Since then, the Arctic sea ice extent has continued to decline, although there have been some years with higher levels than others. \n\nThis decline has important implications for the climate overall, in part because of feedback mechanisms like the ice-albedo and methane feedback mechanisms. \n\nIce-Albedo feedback mechanism, according to a 2017 [Scientific Reports paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-08467-z) is “a key aspect of global climate change. In the polar region, a decrease of snow and ice area results in a decrease of surface albedo, and the intensified solar heating further decreases the snow and ice area”. \n\nAdditionally, the methane release feedback mechanism has been called a central climate tipping point by [The Royal Society](https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-19/): \n\n> [S]ubstantial warming could destabilise methane (a greenhouse gas) trapped in ocean sediments and permafrost, potentially leading to a rapid release of a large amount of methane. If such a rapid release occurred, then major, fast climate changes would ensue. Such high-risk changes are considered unlikely in this century, but are by definition hard to predict. Scientists are therefore continuing to study the possibility of exceeding such tipping points, beyond which we risk large and abrupt changes.\n\nThese mechanisms (as well as further consideration) make monitoring of the arctic ice sheet extent important. According to the [National Snow & Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/), the arctic sea ice extent throughout January 2023 has been below the record minimum year of 2012 for every day. This raises the possibility that 2023 may not just be a new minimum (aggregated over the year) but may instead indicate a drastic shift in furthering the decline of the arctic sea ice extent.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the arctic sea ice extent for 2023 is lower than in 2012 for each day of the year.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the arctic sea ice extent for 2023 is not lower than in 2012 for each day of the year.\n\nThe relevant resolution source is the ‘All daily (single day and five-day trailing average) extent values in one file, updated daily) Excel file [here]( https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/) specifically the sheet 'NH-Daily-Extent' in the file currently titled “Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx”. This file or the one uploaded in its place (with a potentially updated file name) will be used.\n\nFor resolution, the 2012 value for each individual day is subtracted from the 2023 value. A negative result indicates that levels in 2023 were lower than in 2012. Because 2012 had 366 days (compared to 2023’s 365), the February 29, 2012 date will be removed from this analysis", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15220, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686611404.582949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5207017873596315 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686611404.582949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5207017873596315 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.3901013772693188 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3982157860847575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8619038107682248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37177452169040265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5718411160481651, 0.49124069199841025, 1.0, 0.0, 0.1931185252772272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.007978922554691365, 0.40040201336324155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.817459629436158, "coverage": 0.3191540853758791, "baseline_score": 2.3124591908416896, "spot_peer_score": 28.31906871130281, "peer_archived_score": 4.817459629436158, "baseline_archived_score": 2.3124591908416896, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.31906871130281 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1686210082.492957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1686210082.492957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7827370493179139, 0.2172629506820861 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Arctic sea ice extent refers to the amount of ice cover on the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas. The extent of Arctic sea ice varies seasonally, reaching a minimum in late summer and a maximum in late winter. The long-term trend for Arctic sea ice extent has been a decrease, with a record low being reached in 2012, when the sea ice extent shrank to 3.39 million square kilometers. Since then, the Arctic sea ice extent has continued to decline, although there have been some years with higher levels than others. \n\nThis decline has important implications for the climate overall, in part because of feedback mechanisms like the ice-albedo and methane feedback mechanisms. \n\nIce-Albedo feedback mechanism, according to a 2017 [Scientific Reports paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-08467-z) is “a key aspect of global climate change. In the polar region, a decrease of snow and ice area results in a decrease of surface albedo, and the intensified solar heating further decreases the snow and ice area”. \n\nAdditionally, the methane release feedback mechanism has been called a central climate tipping point by [The Royal Society](https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/climate-change-evidence-causes/question-19/): \n\n> [S]ubstantial warming could destabilise methane (a greenhouse gas) trapped in ocean sediments and permafrost, potentially leading to a rapid release of a large amount of methane. If such a rapid release occurred, then major, fast climate changes would ensue. Such high-risk changes are considered unlikely in this century, but are by definition hard to predict. Scientists are therefore continuing to study the possibility of exceeding such tipping points, beyond which we risk large and abrupt changes.\n\nThese mechanisms (as well as further consideration) make monitoring of the arctic ice sheet extent important. According to the [National Snow & Ice Data Center](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/), the arctic sea ice extent throughout January 2023 has been below the record minimum year of 2012 for every day. This raises the possibility that 2023 may not just be a new minimum (aggregated over the year) but may instead indicate a drastic shift in furthering the decline of the arctic sea ice extent." }, { "id": 15211, "title": "Will Russian territory be reduced by at least 1% before 2040?", "short_title": "Russian territory reduced >1% by 2040", "url_title": "Russian territory reduced >1% by 2040", "slug": "russian-territory-reduced-1-by-2040", "author_id": 110540, "author_username": "randallburns", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-17T20:46:57.578232Z", "published_at": "2023-03-17T08:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.468306Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-17T08:34:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-02-17T20:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-02-17T20:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-17T08:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15211, "title": "Will Russian territory be reduced by at least 1% before 2040?", "created_at": "2023-02-17T20:46:57.578232Z", "open_time": "2023-03-17T08:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-19T08:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-19T08:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-02-17T20:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-02-17T20:45:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-02-17T20:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the UN World Statistics Pocketbook, the [area of the Russian Federation](https://unstats.un.org/unsd/publications/pocketbook/files/world-stats-pocketbook-2022.pdf) is 17,098,246 square km.\nPreceding states, the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union were both considerably larger.\n\nIn February 2023, hedge fund mogul/activist George Soros [predicted that](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/soros-says-russian-defeat-ukraine-would-trigger-dissolution-russian-empire-2023-02-16/) \"a Ukrainian victory would result in the dissolution of the Russian empire.\"\n\nThere are currently several [ethnic or religion separatist movements active](https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/ethnic-separatism-russia) in the region, increasing the risks of conflicts within Russia that may lead to a splintering of the current Russian Federation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the land area recorded in the UN World Statistics Pocketbook for the Russian Federation or its direct successor state of a different name is less than 16,927,263 square km at any time before January 1, 2040. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the land area recorded in the UN World Statistics Pocketbook for the Russian Federation or its direct successor state of a different name is not less than 16,927,263 square km for every year before January 1, 2040. \n\nThe resolution source is the [UN Statistics Pocketbook](https://unstats.un.org/UNSDWebsite/Publications/StatisticalPocketbook/).\n\nA state will be considered a direct successor state if it occupies the Russian Federation's place in the UN Security council like the Russian Federation took the place of the Soviet Union or if it occupies most of the current territory of the current Russian Federation. Either criteria may be used to qualify a state for maintaining the current territory of the Russian Federation for purposes of this forecast", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15211, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756157721.047175, "end_time": 1762058295.734324, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756157721.047175, "end_time": 1762058295.734324, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.38222318875915734 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.44502753738246076, 0.3343470039728833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2274691399399458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13085222439699729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6131166630037118, 0.0, 0.1669059266791499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24525749448975162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5221560426127164, 0.0, 1.0, 0.7288213086725668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287697.227433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7930620859955532, 0.20693791400444686 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the UN World Statistics Pocketbook, the [area of the Russian Federation](https://unstats.un.org/unsd/publications/pocketbook/files/world-stats-pocketbook-2022.pdf) is 17,098,246 square km.\nPreceding states, the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union were both considerably larger.\n\nIn February 2023, hedge fund mogul/activist George Soros [predicted that](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/soros-says-russian-defeat-ukraine-would-trigger-dissolution-russian-empire-2023-02-16/) \"a Ukrainian victory would result in the dissolution of the Russian empire.\"\n\nThere are currently several [ethnic or religion separatist movements active](https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/ethnic-separatism-russia) in the region, increasing the risks of conflicts within Russia that may lead to a splintering of the current Russian Federation." }, { "id": 15206, "title": "Will the global methane output from the energy sector be at least 145 Mt for the year 2025?", "short_title": "Total Methane (Energy) Above 145 Mt in 2025?", "url_title": "Total Methane (Energy) Above 145 Mt in 2025?", "slug": "total-methane-energy-above-145-mt-in-2025", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-17T14:21:24.314080Z", "published_at": "2023-03-01T23:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T00:49:42.592252Z", 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"open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that is emitted by human activities, such as energy production (like natural gas systems) and livestock raising, as well as by natural sources such as wetlands. It has direct and indirect effects on climate, human health, and vegetation productivity. Methane has a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO2, but it is more efficient at trapping radiation. Its impact on climate change over [20 years is 86 times greater than CO2 and over a 100-year period it is 28 times greater](https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/methane). Reducing methane emissions can have positive effects on the climate, crop yields, and human health. According to the [Climate & Clean Air Coalition](https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/methane): \n\n> Atmospheric methane concentrations have grown as a result of human activities related to agriculture, including rice cultivation and ruminant livestock; coal mining; oil and gas production and distribution; biomass burning; and municipal waste landfilling. Emissions are projected to continue to increase by 2030 unless immediate action is taken.\n\n> Emissions from coal mining and the oil and gas sector could be reduced by over 65% by preventing gas leakage during transmission and distribution, recovering and using gas at the production stage, and by pre-mine degasification and recovery of methane during coal mining.\n\nThis potential reduction of emissions by increases of efficiency is highlighted by a [report by the IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview), claiming that “[i]f all countries were to perform as well as Norway, global methane emissions from oil and gas operations would fall by more than 90%”. The most efficient country is Norway, which emits almost 0 kg of methane per GJ compared to Russia’s 0.29. \n\nBelow is the data from 2022 [IEA report](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview) on methane emissions from the energy sector by sector and year. For the year 2021, the total methane emissions from the energy sector were 135.2 Mt\n\n| Year | Oil (Mt)| Natural gas (Mt)| Coal (Mt)| Bioenergy (Mt)| Total (Mt)|\n| ---- | --- | -----------| ---- | --------- | ----- |\n| 2000 | 43.9| 22.3 | 23.9 | 9.7 | 99.8 |\n| 2005 | 47.9| 26.3 | 31.9 | 10.1 | 116.2 |\n| 2010 | 46.4| 29.8 | 39.7 | 10.4 | 126.3 |\n| 2015 | 46.5| 33.9 | 42.7 | 10.1 | 133.2 |\n| 2019 | 45.9| 39.7 | 43.4 | 9.1 | 138.1 |\n| 2020 | 41.2| 38.5 | 41.9 | 9.1 | 130.7 |\n| 2021 | 42.9| 39.6 | 43.6 | 9.1 | **135.2** |\n\nAgainst the backdrop of projected total emissions increase until 2030, understanding the trajectory of global methane emissions remains crucial due to its potential to reduce emissions without sacrificing energy output and the significant impact of methane emissions on climate change.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the sum of all energy sector methane emissions globally in the IEA Global Methane Tracker for the year 2025 is 145 Mt or more.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the sum of all energy sector methane emissions globally in the IEA Global Methane Tracker for the year 2025 is less than 145 Mt. \n\nThe resolution source is the [Global Methane Tracker](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview) by the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/). It is anticipated that the 2025 data will be reported in the Tracker 2026. \n\nThe total methane emissions will be calculated by summing up all energy sector emissions. This includes oil, natural gas, coal, and bioenergy, as well as any additional energy sector that may be added in the meantime.\n\nBecause of the substantive differences in methane emission estimation techniques (the IEA estimates are in some cases more than 70% higher than national government numbers), this question will resolve as ambiguous if the IEA discontinues the Global Methane Tracker", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15206, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758568197.084618, "end_time": 1759112108.456521, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758568197.084618, "end_time": 1759112108.456521, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.5799118845612883 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287135.595272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287135.595272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5150594221058553, 0.4849405778941447 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that is emitted by human activities, such as energy production (like natural gas systems) and livestock raising, as well as by natural sources such as wetlands. It has direct and indirect effects on climate, human health, and vegetation productivity. Methane has a shorter atmospheric lifetime than CO2, but it is more efficient at trapping radiation. Its impact on climate change over [20 years is 86 times greater than CO2 and over a 100-year period it is 28 times greater](https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/methane). Reducing methane emissions can have positive effects on the climate, crop yields, and human health. According to the [Climate & Clean Air Coalition](https://www.ccacoalition.org/en/slcps/methane): \n\n> Atmospheric methane concentrations have grown as a result of human activities related to agriculture, including rice cultivation and ruminant livestock; coal mining; oil and gas production and distribution; biomass burning; and municipal waste landfilling. Emissions are projected to continue to increase by 2030 unless immediate action is taken.\n\n> Emissions from coal mining and the oil and gas sector could be reduced by over 65% by preventing gas leakage during transmission and distribution, recovering and using gas at the production stage, and by pre-mine degasification and recovery of methane during coal mining.\n\nThis potential reduction of emissions by increases of efficiency is highlighted by a [report by the IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview), claiming that “[i]f all countries were to perform as well as Norway, global methane emissions from oil and gas operations would fall by more than 90%”. The most efficient country is Norway, which emits almost 0 kg of methane per GJ compared to Russia’s 0.29. \n\nBelow is the data from 2022 [IEA report](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/overview) on methane emissions from the energy sector by sector and year. For the year 2021, the total methane emissions from the energy sector were 135.2 Mt\n\n| Year | Oil (Mt)| Natural gas (Mt)| Coal (Mt)| Bioenergy (Mt)| Total (Mt)|\n| ---- | --- | -----------| ---- | --------- | ----- |\n| 2000 | 43.9| 22.3 | 23.9 | 9.7 | 99.8 |\n| 2005 | 47.9| 26.3 | 31.9 | 10.1 | 116.2 |\n| 2010 | 46.4| 29.8 | 39.7 | 10.4 | 126.3 |\n| 2015 | 46.5| 33.9 | 42.7 | 10.1 | 133.2 |\n| 2019 | 45.9| 39.7 | 43.4 | 9.1 | 138.1 |\n| 2020 | 41.2| 38.5 | 41.9 | 9.1 | 130.7 |\n| 2021 | 42.9| 39.6 | 43.6 | 9.1 | **135.2** |\n\nAgainst the backdrop of projected total emissions increase until 2030, understanding the trajectory of global methane emissions remains crucial due to its potential to reduce emissions without sacrificing energy output and the significant impact of methane emissions on climate change." }, { "id": 15150, "title": "Will the US and the EU (or one of its member states) cut diplomatic ties before 2051?", "short_title": "EU and US Cut Diplomatic Ties before 2051?", "url_title": "EU and US Cut Diplomatic Ties before 2051?", "slug": "eu-and-us-cut-diplomatic-ties-before-2051", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-16T15:35:49.303247Z", "published_at": "2023-03-04T15:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.449215Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-04T15:55:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-04T15:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15150, "title": "Will the US and the EU (or one of its member states) cut diplomatic ties before 2051?", "created_at": "2023-02-16T15:35:49.303247Z", "open_time": "2023-03-04T15:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-06T15:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-06T15:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The EU-US diplomatic relationship is arguably the most important diplomatic relation in the Western sphere of influence. As the [EU parliament liaison office in Washington](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedstates/en/eu-us-relations) phrases it:\n\n> Diplomatic relations between the EU and the U.S. date back to 1953. The relationship between the EU and the U.S. is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. The EU and U.S. are the biggest economic and military powers in the world, dominate global trade, play the leading roles in international political relations, and whatever one says matters a great deal, not only to the other, but to much of the rest of the world.\n\nA strong diplomatic transatlantic relationship between the EU and the US has the potential to shape much of the global balance of power, as it has during the early 21st century. Similarly, a deteriorating of this relationship brings with it substantial geopolitical risks in North America, Europe, and the rest of the world. \n\nOne severe risk of a breakdown of transatlantic relations is the cutting of diplomatic ties. Diplomatic ties are typically cut in response to serious diplomatic transgressions or in cases of war, such as when the US severed diplomatic relations with Germany in [1917](https://www.jstor.org/stable/2212362) or in the ongoing relationships with [Iran and Syria](https://www.sporcle.com/blog/2019/09/what-countries-have-no-diplomatic-relations-with-the-us/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States of America and the European Union (or one of its member states at the time of the event) officially cut diplomatic ties. This will be resolved on the basis of [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) of such an event.", "fine_print": "* The severance of diplomatic relations will be determined according to this definition published by [Law Insider](https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/severance-of-diplomatic-relations).\n\n> Severance of diplomatic relations means their termination, which effectively ends all direct official communications between the two governments. This can be done by mutual consent, but will mostly be effected by a unilateral act of one of the governments, either as an expression of political protest, as a political sanction (eg against abuse of diplomatic privilege) or as a means to implement a decision or recommendation of an international organization (eg a UNSC resolution pursuant to Art 41 UN Charter). Normally, diplomatic relations are terminated by express notification. There are, however, also implied forms such as the actual closure of one’s own mission together with the demand that the other government also closes its mission – actions which clearly manifest the intention of one government to break off diplomatic relations with the other.\n\n* This question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if either the US or the EU (or both) cease existing in a recognisable form. The European Union is understood to cease existing in a recognisable form if either there is no longer a supranational political and economic union of states that are primarily located in Europe called the ‘European Union’, or the union called the ‘EU’ controls less than 50% of its total current area (of 4.233,255.3 km2) or 50% of its total current population (at 447 million). The United States of America is understood to cease existing in a recognisable form if either there is no longer a country known as the ‘United States of America’, or the country called the ‘US’ controls less than 50% of its total current area (of 9,833,520 km2) or 50% of its total current population (at 332 million).", "post_id": 15150, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745484690.690047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.033 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.079 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745484690.690047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.033 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.079 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07959548781316242 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.17290421935583597, 0.5946182793766217, 2.4427440850459448, 1.3071604444047882, 1.7758397730580722, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.6515894302261355, 0.0, 0.2723060475757474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7636143046006238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288595.92934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288595.92934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9798777931606276, 0.020122206839372353 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The EU-US diplomatic relationship is arguably the most important diplomatic relation in the Western sphere of influence. As the [EU parliament liaison office in Washington](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/unitedstates/en/eu-us-relations) phrases it:\n\n> Diplomatic relations between the EU and the U.S. date back to 1953. The relationship between the EU and the U.S. is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. The EU and U.S. are the biggest economic and military powers in the world, dominate global trade, play the leading roles in international political relations, and whatever one says matters a great deal, not only to the other, but to much of the rest of the world.\n\nA strong diplomatic transatlantic relationship between the EU and the US has the potential to shape much of the global balance of power, as it has during the early 21st century. Similarly, a deteriorating of this relationship brings with it substantial geopolitical risks in North America, Europe, and the rest of the world. \n\nOne severe risk of a breakdown of transatlantic relations is the cutting of diplomatic ties. Diplomatic ties are typically cut in response to serious diplomatic transgressions or in cases of war, such as when the US severed diplomatic relations with Germany in [1917](https://www.jstor.org/stable/2212362) or in the ongoing relationships with [Iran and Syria](https://www.sporcle.com/blog/2019/09/what-countries-have-no-diplomatic-relations-with-the-us/)." }, { "id": 15148, "title": "Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Virgin Galactic Commercial Flight Q1-Q2 2023?", "url_title": "Virgin Galactic Commercial Flight Q1-Q2 2023?", "slug": "virgin-galactic-commercial-flight-q1-q2-2023", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 101465, "username": "Jgalt" } ], "created_at": "2023-02-16T12:57:52.481730Z", "published_at": "2023-02-20T08:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.672395Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-20T08:32:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-06-29T15:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-29T15:42:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-20T08:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 128, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15148, "title": "Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-16T12:57:52.481730Z", "open_time": "2023-02-20T08:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-22T08:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-22T08:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-29T15:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-29T15:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-06-29T15:42:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On January 12, 2023, Virgin Galactic [reported](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1706946/000119312523007268/d438974dex991.htm) that it remains \"on track\" to begin commercial service in the second quarter of 2023 following two previous delays in 2021 ([original announcement](https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2021/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-First-Commercial-Research-Mission/)) and [2022](https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2022/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Second-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-And-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx). On February 15, 2023, the company successfully completed a test flight of its carrier aircraft, the VMS Eve mothership, which paves the way for the start of commercial operations, [according to](https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/commercial-space/virgin-galactic-returns-upgraded-carrier-aircraft-flight) Aviation Week. (See also: Virgin Galactic's [3rd Quarter 2022 Earnings Call](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4552931-virgin-galactic-holdings-inc-spce-q3-2022-earnings-call-transcript) and [CNBC: Virgin Galactic again delays space tourism flights, to second quarter 2023](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/04/virgin-galactic-again-delays-space-tourism-flights-to-second-quarter-2023.html).) \n\nVirgin Galactic's mission is \"to connect people across the globe to the love, wonder and awe created by space travel.\" In December 2018, it [flew](https://www.geekwire.com/2018/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-space/) its spaceship, the VSS Unity, to space for the first time. In February 2019, it flew its [second spaceflight](https://www.space.com/virgin-galactic-powered-flight-february-2019.html) with VSS Unity, flying a test passenger for the first time. After relocating its operations to [Spaceport America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaceport_America) in New Mexico, Virgin Galactic flew two additional spaceflights, in [May of 2021](https://www.abqjournal.com/2393160/lift-off-virgin-galactic-spaceship-is-in-the-air.html) with NASA research experiments and in [July of 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic_Unity_22) with four passengers including Sir Richard Branson. (See Reuters: [Billionaire Branson soars to space aboard Virgin Galactic flight](https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/virgin-galactics-branson-ready-space-launch-aboard-rocket-plane-2021-07-11/))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** upon Virgin Galactic completing a successful commercial flight with its spaceship, based on media reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) For purposes of this question, a *successful commercial flight* must contain all of these elements:\n\n1. It is a revenue-generating flight.\n2. There is at least one human passenger.\n3. Every passenger returns safely and uninjured from the trip.\n4. The spaceship is reported to have reached an altitude of at least [80 kilometers or 50 miles above sea level](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/09/where-space-begins-bezos-blue-origin-vs-bransons-virgin-galactic.html).\n5. The spaceship is not reported to have incurred significant damage.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if no such commercial flight is reported to have taken place before July 1, 2023", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15148, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688054284.921851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688054284.921851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7190590358676483 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.015902589623428432, 0.8988851197615056, 0.0, 0.001733146577529624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0043319525273556635, 0.005939066658722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004370291060245418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007619260256521799, 0.002793133719389214, 0.023105782806901266, 0.001271699693724388, 0.6616612681247063, 0.003055241390291277, 0.0015666163036862494, 0.0, 0.0025474768392577253, 0.007312351161067904, 0.006517519819049148, 0.0033427467086007147, 0.0008021769608096026, 0.0, 0.09627179923411752, 0.0004297678339484848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009096122303760338, 0.04320875767829279, 0.0, 0.04354643946427904, 0.0, 0.16783427413784738, 0.6113689137720343, 0.03481117957626761, 0.1300860107078283, 0.0, 0.0001975755397793671, 0.04730246698645611, 0.05022630295492274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46394814387038624, 0.09278014709330892, 0.011919095974040044, 0.1755735365862845, 0.0, 0.3480469690298752, 1.3174444214738374, 0.0937119542192642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.705650265339388, 0.059975871081628156, 0.5453824588045348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24644717281580394, 0.0, 0.3697862720438535, 0.04452940861361238, 0.3135558877649012, 0.7406256146551754, 0.0, 0.4607906561113482, 0.0, 0.39951251696486556, 1.3181095896553756, 0.4830327226503607, 0.5820709885655234, 0.0, 0.7654585712607964, 1.5597274364222042, 0.0, 0.6680678481628474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13397213535834523, 0.0, 0.0014130777270173261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03940832120170523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8373804229016928, 0.5557220180285652, 0.0, 0.0, 4.9981358180425275 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 32.727793521058175, "coverage": 0.9828986297745084, "baseline_score": -41.998774721662805, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 32.727793521058175, "baseline_archived_score": -41.998774721662805, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1687988255.580323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1687988255.580323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.43472269989954193, 0.5652773001004581 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 416, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 12, 2023, Virgin Galactic [reported](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1706946/000119312523007268/d438974dex991.htm) that it remains \"on track\" to begin commercial service in the second quarter of 2023 following two previous delays in 2021 ([original announcement](https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2021/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-First-Commercial-Research-Mission/)) and [2022](https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2022/Virgin-Galactic-Announces-Second-Quarter-2022-Financial-Results-And-Provides-Business-Update/default.aspx). On February 15, 2023, the company successfully completed a test flight of its carrier aircraft, the VMS Eve mothership, which paves the way for the start of commercial operations, [according to](https://aviationweek.com/aerospace/commercial-space/virgin-galactic-returns-upgraded-carrier-aircraft-flight) Aviation Week. (See also: Virgin Galactic's [3rd Quarter 2022 Earnings Call](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4552931-virgin-galactic-holdings-inc-spce-q3-2022-earnings-call-transcript) and [CNBC: Virgin Galactic again delays space tourism flights, to second quarter 2023](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/04/virgin-galactic-again-delays-space-tourism-flights-to-second-quarter-2023.html).) \n\nVirgin Galactic's mission is \"to connect people across the globe to the love, wonder and awe created by space travel.\" In December 2018, it [flew](https://www.geekwire.com/2018/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-space/) its spaceship, the VSS Unity, to space for the first time. In February 2019, it flew its [second spaceflight](https://www.space.com/virgin-galactic-powered-flight-february-2019.html) with VSS Unity, flying a test passenger for the first time. After relocating its operations to [Spaceport America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spaceport_America) in New Mexico, Virgin Galactic flew two additional spaceflights, in [May of 2021](https://www.abqjournal.com/2393160/lift-off-virgin-galactic-spaceship-is-in-the-air.html) with NASA research experiments and in [July of 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgin_Galactic_Unity_22) with four passengers including Sir Richard Branson. (See Reuters: [Billionaire Branson soars to space aboard Virgin Galactic flight](https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/science/virgin-galactics-branson-ready-space-launch-aboard-rocket-plane-2021-07-11/))" }, { "id": 15146, "title": "Will Russia’s GDP (in 2015 USD) be at least $1.50 trillion in 2030?", "short_title": "Russia's GDP ≥$1.5 trillion in 2030?", "url_title": "Russia's GDP ≥$1.5 trillion in 2030?", "slug": "russias-gdp-15-trillion-in-2030", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-16T11:19:46.159203Z", "published_at": "2023-03-05T15:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T06:24:02.526367Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-05T15:55:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-03-05T15:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15146, "title": "Will Russia’s GDP (in 2015 USD) be at least $1.50 trillion in 2030?", "created_at": "2023-02-16T11:19:46.159203Z", "open_time": "2023-03-05T15:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-07T15:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-07T15:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia is a mixed economy, meaning it has both state-owned and private enterprises. It is based largely on the export of natural resources, such as oil, gas, and metals, which have historically accounted for a significant portion of the country's total exports. Other important sectors include manufacturing, agriculture, and services. In 2021, the Russian GDP in constant 2015 USD was $1.49 trillion. \n\nMost recently, the Russian economic performance was impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in response to which many countries, most notably the EU, US, and UK, have imposed a variety of sanctions on Russia, making it the “world’s most sanctioned countries” according to the [Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/russia-sanctions-database/). As they outline, this was an attempt “to make Russia a global economic pariah”. According to their database, almost 11,500 individual sanctions against Russia have been issued, 78% of which were against individuals and 21% against entities. While there has been [some evidence](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/) that the economic sanctions are working, with places like the World Bank and the OECD forecasting a 3-5% decline in GDP for 2023, [others]( https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/12/06/1140120485/why-the-sanctions-against-russia-arent-working-yet) have cautioned that it may be difficult to see the effects in the short-term. This comes as the [IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS) has revised up its forecast for 2023, showing 0.3% projected real GDP growth.\n\nHowever, an economy's performance depends on a variety of factors and there is substantial uncertainty as to the future of sanctions, the demand for commodities, and the economic health of Russia. Understanding the long-term trajectory of the Russian economy is important geopolitically as well as economically.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?contextual=default&indicators=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD&locations=RU\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the GDP of Russia (Russian Federation) is $1.50 trillion or above for the year 2030. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\nThe resolution source for this question is the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?contextual=default&locations=RU) data for the year 2030. The relevant metric reported by the World Bank is constant 2015 US$", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15146, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758565238.042039, "end_time": 1758819259.798619, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758565238.042039, "end_time": 1758819259.798619, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9037886456277016 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.009362214450677682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16193689729934868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004502492091281563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015497814578501265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023344988892241045, 0.0, 0.24582773872283623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.115269369020162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019184847683859318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6682290751014637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3206068533563977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14500482192877664, 0.0, 0.0920481776477437, 0.01223904243451124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8366469727579933, 0.745547193843169, 0.22603809998844396, 0.0, 2.200944770327844, 0.03326916664747106, 1.229450493765451, 0.07964779781950536, 3.130220797839124 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289127.418553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289127.418553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.14775673340391404, 0.852243266596086 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia is a mixed economy, meaning it has both state-owned and private enterprises. It is based largely on the export of natural resources, such as oil, gas, and metals, which have historically accounted for a significant portion of the country's total exports. Other important sectors include manufacturing, agriculture, and services. In 2021, the Russian GDP in constant 2015 USD was $1.49 trillion. \n\nMost recently, the Russian economic performance was impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, in response to which many countries, most notably the EU, US, and UK, have imposed a variety of sanctions on Russia, making it the “world’s most sanctioned countries” according to the [Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/russia-sanctions-database/). As they outline, this was an attempt “to make Russia a global economic pariah”. According to their database, almost 11,500 individual sanctions against Russia have been issued, 78% of which were against individuals and 21% against entities. While there has been [some evidence](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/) that the economic sanctions are working, with places like the World Bank and the OECD forecasting a 3-5% decline in GDP for 2023, [others]( https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/12/06/1140120485/why-the-sanctions-against-russia-arent-working-yet) have cautioned that it may be difficult to see the effects in the short-term. This comes as the [IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS) has revised up its forecast for 2023, showing 0.3% projected real GDP growth.\n\nHowever, an economy's performance depends on a variety of factors and there is substantial uncertainty as to the future of sanctions, the demand for commodities, and the economic health of Russia. Understanding the long-term trajectory of the Russian economy is important geopolitically as well as economically.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?contextual=default&indicators=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD&locations=RU\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>" }, { "id": 15143, "title": "Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?", "short_title": "Will Nigerian Election Go To Run-off", "url_title": "Will Nigerian Election Go To Run-off", "slug": "will-nigerian-election-go-to-run-off", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-16T04:03:14.701350Z", "published_at": "2023-02-17T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.654847Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-17T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-24T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-24T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:10:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-17T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15143, "title": "Will the Nigerian Presidential Election on February 25th go to a run-off vote?", "created_at": "2023-02-16T04:03:14.701350Z", "open_time": "2023-02-17T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-18T15:41:03.025417Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-18T15:41:03.025417Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-01T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-24T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-24T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, with a population of [over 200 million people](https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/NG). The country has a rich recent democratic history, having held [several elections](https://www.premiumtimesng.com/resources/173303-calendar-elections-nigeria-since-1999.html?tztc=1) since the return to civilian rule in 1999. \n\nDue to the two-term limit set by the Nigerian constitution, current President Muhammadu Buhari cannot run for re-election. Nigerian voters will elect a new president to take his place.\n\nCurrently Atiku Abubakar, Bola Tinubu, and Peter Obi are leading the race, with Obi waging an upstart campaign focused on the interests of Nigerian youth.\n\nAccording to the [Nigerian Constitution](http://www.nigeria-law.org/ConstitutionOfTheFederalRepublicOfNigeria.htm#FederalExecutive), to be elected in a presidential election with more than two candidates, a candidate must have:\n\n \"*(a) ...the highest number of votes cast at the election;*\n\n *and*\n\n *(b) ...not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.\"*\n\nOtherwise, the election will go to a [run-off election](https://inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/FAQ-Inner.pdf) one week later.\n\nA Nigerian Presidential election has never gone to a run-off before. However, there is [a chance](https://guardian.ng/news/runoff-likely-in-presidential-elections-says-new-survey/) that it may do so in 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a run-off election is scheduled. This will resolve based on public reports from the [Independent National Electoral Commission](https://inecnigeria.org/) of Nigeria confirming that they have scheduled a run-off election.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise.\n\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*", "fine_print": "In the absence of a clear directive from the INEC, admins will use credible media reports.\n\n\nSome [sources](https://www.nytimes.com/article/nigeria-election.html) claim that to avoid a run-off, a candidate must win a **majority (>50%)** of the vote **and** obtain at least 25% of the vote in a minimum of 24 out of 36 states to be elected.", "post_id": 15143, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677208069.017618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677208069.017618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.4734514713631633 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45288178428458503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1765713904028418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2425126729529749, 0.04492986066620649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08496097501576635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31967846996806076, 0.0, 0.027555991945566502, 0.0, 0.6292630324472235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03365548811464179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0747020952524717, 0.2663246767136079, 0.16378110850070704, 1.2194795950904793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23989650644812885, 1.4405932929956233, 0.2920067509037526, 0.0, 0.8814215156664014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 1.0807318531650145, 0.0, 0.01414047269109762, 0.22045724352962418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9419154212875593, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.38150119878791605, 0.11935795955623035, 0.00902096530357109, 0.0, 0.4925280170881631, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.5350252150826518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4159242870145984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.093664357436623, "coverage": 0.9999086135501931, "baseline_score": 14.186461304981325, "spot_peer_score": -7.376152551984736, "peer_archived_score": 9.093664357436623, "baseline_archived_score": 14.186461304981325, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.376152551984736 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677208069.036622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677208069.036622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6767771231157651, 0.32322287688423496 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, with a population of [over 200 million people](https://www.unfpa.org/data/world-population/NG). The country has a rich recent democratic history, having held [several elections](https://www.premiumtimesng.com/resources/173303-calendar-elections-nigeria-since-1999.html?tztc=1) since the return to civilian rule in 1999. \n\nDue to the two-term limit set by the Nigerian constitution, current President Muhammadu Buhari cannot run for re-election. Nigerian voters will elect a new president to take his place.\n\nCurrently Atiku Abubakar, Bola Tinubu, and Peter Obi are leading the race, with Obi waging an upstart campaign focused on the interests of Nigerian youth.\n\nAccording to the [Nigerian Constitution](http://www.nigeria-law.org/ConstitutionOfTheFederalRepublicOfNigeria.htm#FederalExecutive), to be elected in a presidential election with more than two candidates, a candidate must have:\n\n \"*(a) ...the highest number of votes cast at the election;*\n\n *and*\n\n *(b) ...not less than one-quarter of the votes cast at the election each of at least two-thirds of all the States in the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.\"*\n\nOtherwise, the election will go to a [run-off election](https://inecnigeria.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/FAQ-Inner.pdf) one week later.\n\nA Nigerian Presidential election has never gone to a run-off before. However, there is [a chance](https://guardian.ng/news/runoff-likely-in-presidential-elections-says-new-survey/) that it may do so in 2023." }, { "id": 15136, "title": "Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?", "short_title": "Downing High-Altitude Objects, February 2023", "url_title": "Downing High-Altitude Objects, February 2023", "slug": "downing-high-altitude-objects-february-2023", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119767, "username": "PhilippSchoenegger" } ], "created_at": "2023-02-14T23:21:27.560430Z", "published_at": "2023-02-17T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.911154Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-17T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-25T22:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-25T22:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-02T01:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-02T01:56:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-17T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15136, "title": "Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-14T23:21:27.560430Z", "open_time": "2023-02-17T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-18T02:01:29.568616Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-18T02:01:29.568616Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-02T01:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-02T01:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-02T01:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-25T22:53:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-25T22:53:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After [downing a suspected Chinese spy balloon on February 4th, 2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15023/chinese-balloon/), the US Government [shot down three additional high-altitude objects between February 10th and February 12th](https://apnews.com/article/china-us-high-altitude-balloons-in-airspace-8d8b9e7474027e1305264b2c7b8b04fb). The objects included:\n\n- [An object about the size of a small car shot down over sea ice near Dead Horse, Alaska](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-says-it-shot-down-object-over-alaska-size-small-car-2023-02-10/)\n- [A cylindrical object brought down by US fighters over Canadian territory](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-still-gives-no-details-about-alaska-ufo-new-object-seen-over-canada-2023-02-11/)\n- [An octagonal object shot down over Lake Huron](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-officials-believe-flying-objects-over-alaska-canada-were-balloons-schumer-2023-02-12/)\n\nThe US [has not identified the origin or function of the objects](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/12/us/politics/us-shoots-down-object-michigan.html), but has [ruled out an extra-terrestrial origin](https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-charles-schumer-jake-sullivan-china-acc1a333326c50ee9649760c569c300f). A White House spokesperson [attributed the unprecedented activity](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/02/13/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-national-security-council-coordinator-for-strategic-communications-john-kirby-february-13-2023/) to the US more closely monitoring US airspace following the discovery of the Chinese balloon.\n\nOn February 12th, China said it was [preparing to shoot down an unknown flying object near its coast](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/12/china-prepares-shoot-unknown-flying-object-near-coast/).\n\nOn February 14th, Moldova [shut down its airspace](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-has-temporarily-closed-its-airspace-national-airliner-says-2023-02-14/) to investigate reports of a balloon-like object in the sky, and [Romania scrambled fighters](http://web.archive.org/web/20230214161836/https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-detects-suspicious-weather-balloon-its-airspace-ministry-says-2023-02-14/) to pursue a suspected balloon in the country's airspace.\n\nNeither China nor Romania reported shooting down any objects.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on Wikipedia's list of [2023 high-altitude object events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_high-altitude_object_events_in_2023). The question resolves positively if Wikipedia's list indicates an additional object is shot down before March 1, 2023, by a nation other than the United States. The question resolves negatively otherwise.\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, we will defer to Wikipedia for defining:\n\n- Whether an object is a high-altitude object\n- The shoot-down date\n- The nationality of the unit shooting down the object\n\nIf a civilian or non-governmental organization downs a high-altitude object, that will not count for positive resolution. Only state actions will suffice for positive resolution.\n\nIn the event Wikipedia no longer maintains a list of 2023 high-altitude object events, Metaculus moderators will resolve the question based on [credible media reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 15136, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677362886.06211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677362886.06211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.05237458621633695 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0290362359286653, 2.053337483817604, 4.005300505676772, 1.242553117454952, 1.2191010708687682, 3.314772998835654, 0.4092168261661939, 0.10059860208248364, 0.0559537961397935, 0.423785636031633, 1.095316493514178, 0.2579726483042557, 0.007280827884852904, 0.0, 0.1717974906989278, 0.48557815477312266, 0.09931121343223279, 0.0, 0.31187544366267334, 0.0, 0.012700155937273989, 0.0, 0.10966804053788785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35306151093949006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007730619348276378, 0.0, 0.07370291962268603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000591351133574298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009788977028033815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004303387677233397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028439359257530537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.997943046873722, "coverage": 0.9999054946551582, "baseline_score": 63.97093982352493, "spot_peer_score": -9.332626130359449, "peer_archived_score": 11.997943046873722, "baseline_archived_score": 63.97093982352493, "spot_peer_archived_score": -9.332626130359449 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677362886.082922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677362886.082922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9968821864149379, 0.0031178135850621898 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After [downing a suspected Chinese spy balloon on February 4th, 2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15023/chinese-balloon/), the US Government [shot down three additional high-altitude objects between February 10th and February 12th](https://apnews.com/article/china-us-high-altitude-balloons-in-airspace-8d8b9e7474027e1305264b2c7b8b04fb). The objects included:\n\n- [An object about the size of a small car shot down over sea ice near Dead Horse, Alaska](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-says-it-shot-down-object-over-alaska-size-small-car-2023-02-10/)\n- [A cylindrical object brought down by US fighters over Canadian territory](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-still-gives-no-details-about-alaska-ufo-new-object-seen-over-canada-2023-02-11/)\n- [An octagonal object shot down over Lake Huron](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-officials-believe-flying-objects-over-alaska-canada-were-balloons-schumer-2023-02-12/)\n\nThe US [has not identified the origin or function of the objects](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/12/us/politics/us-shoots-down-object-michigan.html), but has [ruled out an extra-terrestrial origin](https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-charles-schumer-jake-sullivan-china-acc1a333326c50ee9649760c569c300f). A White House spokesperson [attributed the unprecedented activity](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2023/02/13/press-briefing-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-national-security-council-coordinator-for-strategic-communications-john-kirby-february-13-2023/) to the US more closely monitoring US airspace following the discovery of the Chinese balloon.\n\nOn February 12th, China said it was [preparing to shoot down an unknown flying object near its coast](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/02/12/china-prepares-shoot-unknown-flying-object-near-coast/).\n\nOn February 14th, Moldova [shut down its airspace](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-has-temporarily-closed-its-airspace-national-airliner-says-2023-02-14/) to investigate reports of a balloon-like object in the sky, and [Romania scrambled fighters](http://web.archive.org/web/20230214161836/https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/romania-detects-suspicious-weather-balloon-its-airspace-ministry-says-2023-02-14/) to pursue a suspected balloon in the country's airspace.\n\nNeither China nor Romania reported shooting down any objects." }, { "id": 15134, "title": "Will Dubai's planned aerial taxis be operational before 2027?", "short_title": "Dubai's aerial taxis operational before 2027?", "url_title": "Dubai's aerial taxis operational before 2027?", "slug": "dubais-aerial-taxis-operational-before-2027", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 101465, "username": "Jgalt" } ], "created_at": "2023-02-14T19:05:56.629862Z", "published_at": "2023-02-20T08:27:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.577251Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-20T08:27:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T04:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-02-20T08:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15134, "title": "Will Dubai's planned aerial taxis be operational before 2027?", "created_at": "2023-02-14T19:05:56.629862Z", "open_time": "2023-02-20T08:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-22T08:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-22T08:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T04:06:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T04:06:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 13, 2023, Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum [announced](https://www.rta.ae/wps/portal/rta/ae/home/news-and-media/all-news/NewsDetails/mohammed-bin-rashid-approves-models-of-aerial-taxi-vertiports-at-world-government-summit) plans for electric flying taxis in Dubai in 2026, which will include a network of vertiports connecting key areas of the city. See also [Arab News - Dubai says flying taxis to take off by 2026 from 4 stations across city](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2250066/middle-east) and the [tweet](https://twitter.com/HHShkMohd/status/1624760548100382721) by Sheikh Mohammed with a computer-generated video clip of the planned aerial taxis by Joby Aviation, Inc.\n\nJoby Aviation has spent more than a decade designing and testing a piloted vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, to be used for what it calls the Urban Air Mobility market. If it reaches commercial viability, it will offer zero emissions due to having an all-electric powertrain, while being [less noisy](https://newatlas.com/aircraft/nasa-joby-evtol-noise/) than a helicopter. See also [Tech Crunch - February 14, 2023 Joby flies towards 2025 commercial launch with final assembly of eVTOL](https://techcrunch.com/2023/02/14/joby-aviation-evtol-company-conforming/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALenv7bqK6Lj3yItZlVIyd4LAbRjqqe6rpwBod-ZdwxhB4_28TCWbITQHSv0g8tedo5L7N0YG8gAbUT2KGPRlmmbjMqX8Ns5pTpsKIDefsqimg5RS1vnNmndlHETQF1fOrX_zNJBDWDqxLeuvUjX3G0ixjInWPnTbWXLU7m6oh2W)\n\nTo date, early prototypes of the Joby eVTOL aircraft [have completed](https://www.aviationtoday.com/2022/03/18/joby-earns-faa-approval-of-initial-systems-and-compliance-reviews/) over 1,000 successful test flights, with one remotely-piloted aircraft involved in an accident [occurring](https://verticalmag.com/news/ntsb-joby-experienced-component-failure-during-february-crash/) in February 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** upon any successful, commercial eVTOL aircraft flight (whether from Joby or any other air taxi developer) taking place in Dubai, UAE, based on media reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). For purposes of this question, this is defined as an eVTOL flight with:\n\n1. at least one ticketed passenger\n2. no passengers harmed in the flight \n3. the aircraft not reported to have incurred significant damage from the flight. \n4. the aircraft taking off from one vertiport and landing at another.\n\nThis question resolves as **No** if no such successful, commercial eVTOL flight is reported to have taken place in Dubai before January 1, 2027", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15134, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756762734.256023, "end_time": 1759770371.708909, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.378 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.561 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756762734.256023, "end_time": 1759770371.708909, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.378 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.561 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.622, 0.378 ], "means": [ 0.43188379143758093 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15879807646568847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11180987007068278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7241569329010089, 0.2999955669562715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 0.737153338222849, 0.2230884754427727, 0.12458556497060898, 1.4264506227643068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6704021068977114, 0.7293902374518497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1622569489402781, 0.06290448966866473, 0.10972487483863327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9003756559288923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.04583246801941605, 0.0, 0.400338473374478, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9098298669307259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7130527459887679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288318.974338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288318.974338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7215950229496801, 0.27840497705031986 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 13, 2023, Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum [announced](https://www.rta.ae/wps/portal/rta/ae/home/news-and-media/all-news/NewsDetails/mohammed-bin-rashid-approves-models-of-aerial-taxi-vertiports-at-world-government-summit) plans for electric flying taxis in Dubai in 2026, which will include a network of vertiports connecting key areas of the city. See also [Arab News - Dubai says flying taxis to take off by 2026 from 4 stations across city](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2250066/middle-east) and the [tweet](https://twitter.com/HHShkMohd/status/1624760548100382721) by Sheikh Mohammed with a computer-generated video clip of the planned aerial taxis by Joby Aviation, Inc.\n\nJoby Aviation has spent more than a decade designing and testing a piloted vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, to be used for what it calls the Urban Air Mobility market. If it reaches commercial viability, it will offer zero emissions due to having an all-electric powertrain, while being [less noisy](https://newatlas.com/aircraft/nasa-joby-evtol-noise/) than a helicopter. See also [Tech Crunch - February 14, 2023 Joby flies towards 2025 commercial launch with final assembly of eVTOL](https://techcrunch.com/2023/02/14/joby-aviation-evtol-company-conforming/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALenv7bqK6Lj3yItZlVIyd4LAbRjqqe6rpwBod-ZdwxhB4_28TCWbITQHSv0g8tedo5L7N0YG8gAbUT2KGPRlmmbjMqX8Ns5pTpsKIDefsqimg5RS1vnNmndlHETQF1fOrX_zNJBDWDqxLeuvUjX3G0ixjInWPnTbWXLU7m6oh2W)\n\nTo date, early prototypes of the Joby eVTOL aircraft [have completed](https://www.aviationtoday.com/2022/03/18/joby-earns-faa-approval-of-initial-systems-and-compliance-reviews/) over 1,000 successful test flights, with one remotely-piloted aircraft involved in an accident [occurring](https://verticalmag.com/news/ntsb-joby-experienced-component-failure-during-february-crash/) in February 2022." }, { "id": 15127, "title": "Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?", "short_title": "GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?", "url_title": "GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025?", "slug": "goog-market-cap-below-1-trillion-by-2025", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-14T14:47:07.438544Z", "published_at": "2023-02-19T17:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.925770Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-19T17:16:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T17:45:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-19T17:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15127, "title": "Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?", "created_at": "2023-02-14T14:47:07.438544Z", "open_time": "2023-02-19T17:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-21T17:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-21T17:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T17:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T17:46:48.027749Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Alphabet is the parent company of Google, which dominates the search business ecosystem with its search engine, Google Search. Google Search is the most widely used search engine in the world, accounting for [over 90%](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) of the global search engine market share. Alphabet also provides a range of other products and services, including advertising technologies, cloud computing, mobile operating systems, and hardware devices. Ads (relying on Google Search) makes up the [majority of Google’s revenue.](https://www.oberlo.co.uk/statistics/how-does-google-make-money)\n\nAfter Microsoft and OpenAI, the maker of [ChatGPT](https://chat.openai.com/chat) [extended their partnership](https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/01/23/microsoftandopenaiextendpartnership/) in late January 2023, Microsoft announced in early February 2023 that Bing will be running on a [next-generation OpenAI model](https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/02/07/reinventing-search-with-a-new-ai-powered-microsoft-bing-and-edge-your-copilot-for-the-web/), the first search engine to do so. In response, Google unveiled, [Bard](https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search-updates/), its own large language model aimed to provide a ChatGPT-like feature for Google. However, after Bard’s debut in an ad on [Google’s Twitter](https://twitter.com/google/status/1622710355775393793), Bard appeared to be making a mistake, erasing over [$100 billion of market value](https://www.npr.org/2023/02/09/1155650909/google-chatbot--error-bard-shares) on a single day. This brings to the fore the risks that Google faces in the search business and the consequent risks associated for Alphabet’s overall performance. As of February 2023, the total market cap of [Alphabet is $1.2 trillion,](https://companiesmarketcap.com/alphabet-google/marketcap/) down from over $1.3 trillion earlier that month.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the total market capitalization of Alphabet (GOOG) falls below $1 trillion (USD) at any time before or on December 31, 2024. \n\nThis question resolves as **No** otherwise.\n\nData for market capitalisation will be taken from [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/alphabet-google/marketcap/). If this website is unavailable, other sources like [YahooFinance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) will be used", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15127, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735312180.539774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735312180.539774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008749070063819248 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.672523490786974, 2.0459285941724104, 0.2682054289136867, 0.4673251536497623, 0.14046414606837426, 0.0802559119164684, 0.0, 0.05846140212358814, 0.0, 0.17584344424443632, 0.053559793541329934, 0.010764005557900061, 0.0, 0.04584995532328869, 0.0, 0.0164842119985437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032737217951857513, 0.0, 0.0015050157310024152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024522378510598753, 0.004277460841020688, 0.05370469690466644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00125373555270061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002841914205169248, 0.0193926107244894, 0.0, 0.011933573275951067, 0.0, 0.011810491597750234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021015052760297217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005027948894301332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006076994828713632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008323054346231313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006572940643487771, 0.005493040083393936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010303164300238567 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.71156981542784, "peer_score": 28.263102104680126, "coverage": 0.9999992612910288, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999992612910288, "spot_peer_score": 72.22364009982925, "spot_baseline_score": 33.34237337251918, "baseline_archived_score": 77.71156981542784, "peer_archived_score": 28.263102104680126, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 72.22364009982925, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.34237337251918 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289995.534918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289995.534918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 312, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Alphabet is the parent company of Google, which dominates the search business ecosystem with its search engine, Google Search. Google Search is the most widely used search engine in the world, accounting for [over 90%](https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share) of the global search engine market share. Alphabet also provides a range of other products and services, including advertising technologies, cloud computing, mobile operating systems, and hardware devices. Ads (relying on Google Search) makes up the [majority of Google’s revenue.](https://www.oberlo.co.uk/statistics/how-does-google-make-money)\n\nAfter Microsoft and OpenAI, the maker of [ChatGPT](https://chat.openai.com/chat) [extended their partnership](https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/01/23/microsoftandopenaiextendpartnership/) in late January 2023, Microsoft announced in early February 2023 that Bing will be running on a [next-generation OpenAI model](https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2023/02/07/reinventing-search-with-a-new-ai-powered-microsoft-bing-and-edge-your-copilot-for-the-web/), the first search engine to do so. In response, Google unveiled, [Bard](https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search-updates/), its own large language model aimed to provide a ChatGPT-like feature for Google. However, after Bard’s debut in an ad on [Google’s Twitter](https://twitter.com/google/status/1622710355775393793), Bard appeared to be making a mistake, erasing over [$100 billion of market value](https://www.npr.org/2023/02/09/1155650909/google-chatbot--error-bard-shares) on a single day. This brings to the fore the risks that Google faces in the search business and the consequent risks associated for Alphabet’s overall performance. As of February 2023, the total market cap of [Alphabet is $1.2 trillion,](https://companiesmarketcap.com/alphabet-google/marketcap/) down from over $1.3 trillion earlier that month." }, { "id": 15111, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukrainian Control of Simferopol Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Ukrainian Control of Simferopol Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "ukrainian-control-of-simferopol-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 129011, "author_username": "AlexL", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119767, "username": "PhilippSchoenegger" } ], "created_at": "2023-02-13T13:53:10.177269Z", "published_at": "2023-02-16T23:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.127856Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-16T23:45:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-16T23:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 72, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15111, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-13T13:53:10.177269Z", "open_time": "2023-02-16T23:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-18T23:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-18T23:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [city of Simferopol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simferopol) is the second largest in Crimea and is considered the capital of the [Autonomous Republic of Crimea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_Republic_of_Crimea). The Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was the acting Ukrainian legislative body for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea before Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014. Since 2014, Crimea has been under Russian occupation, though there has been [little international recognition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_resolution_73/194) of this move.\r\n\r\nAfter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and Ukraine's military gains later that year, there has been [speculation](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-case-for-ukraine-retaking-crimea/) that Ukraine will attempt to retake Crimea in 2023 in an attempt to restore its pre-2014 borders. Some have [argued](https://news.usni.org/2023/02/02/losing-crimea-would-escalate-russian-ukraine-conflict-former-defense-secretary-says) that even an attempt by Ukraine to do so could [alter Russia's nuclear calculus and risk escalation](https://www.ft.com/content/d632cae8-f06d-4f9d-9d90-f1cd0dfd7a70).", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if before December 31, 2023 the [Institute for the Study of War's map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the Supreme Council of Crimea Building in Simferopol as under \"Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensive\" or as “Ukraine” in case of an end to the hostilities that sees Crimea return to Ukraine. Control of the Supreme Council of Crimea Building will be assessed in the ISW map based using the address: **Ulitsa Karla Marksa, 18, Simferopol**. If the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for assessed territory, then Metaculus will make a determination according to information provided by ISW or other credible sources.\r\n\r\nIf, by December 31, 2023, the building of the Supreme Council of Crimea no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will resolve based on control of the area where the building was located on Feb 13, 2023.\r\n\r\nThis question resolves as **No** otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15111, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704038732.061109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704038732.061109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.010848786114023089 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.170645405488113, 4.008158395157527, 0.19066679740747094, 0.047954161363873406, 0.027700581072225252, 0.6550631564461379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19600271381795006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023916025099906184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10478512242939961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07034599129182002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011671031195180676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.826674109893426, "coverage": 0.9978561499655735, "baseline_score": 97.86156127015057, "spot_peer_score": 42.61654073762703, "peer_archived_score": 9.826674109893426, "baseline_archived_score": 97.86156127015057, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.61654073762703 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704038732.106831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704038732.106831, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 188, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [city of Simferopol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simferopol) is the second largest in Crimea and is considered the capital of the [Autonomous Republic of Crimea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_Republic_of_Crimea). The Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was the acting Ukrainian legislative body for the Autonomous Republic of Crimea before Russia annexed the peninsula in 2014. Since 2014, Crimea has been under Russian occupation, though there has been [little international recognition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembly_resolution_73/194) of this move.\r\n\r\nAfter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 and Ukraine's military gains later that year, there has been [speculation](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-case-for-ukraine-retaking-crimea/) that Ukraine will attempt to retake Crimea in 2023 in an attempt to restore its pre-2014 borders. Some have [argued](https://news.usni.org/2023/02/02/losing-crimea-would-escalate-russian-ukraine-conflict-former-defense-secretary-says) that even an attempt by Ukraine to do so could [alter Russia's nuclear calculus and risk escalation](https://www.ft.com/content/d632cae8-f06d-4f9d-9d90-f1cd0dfd7a70)." }, { "id": 15106, "title": "Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?", "short_title": "Death of mink farm worker from bird flu", "url_title": "Death of mink farm worker from bird flu", "slug": "death-of-mink-farm-worker-from-bird-flu", "author_id": 120444, "author_username": "bskubi", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-10T15:20:17.866466Z", "published_at": "2023-05-06T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.008425Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-06T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T23:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T23:58:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-06T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15106, "title": "Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-10T15:20:17.866466Z", "open_time": "2023-05-06T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-08T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-08T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T23:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T23:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-01T23:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In October 2022, an [outbreak of H5N1 at a Spanish mink farm](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/why-a-bird-flu-outbreak-at-a-mink-farm-is-reigniting-public-health-concerns) showed likely mink-to-mink transmission. All minks were culled and destroyed, and no farm workers were infected.\n\nHowever, the outbreak raised concerns that H5N1 may be showing signs of acquiring mammal-to-mammal spread. The current outbreak in [wild birds and poultry](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) is the worst in US history, with over 60 million birds dead. The virus has spilled over into a range of mammalian species, but the October mink farm outbreak is the first likely case of spread of the virus from mammal to mammal.\n\n[According to CIDRAP](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/researchers-detail-h5n1-avian-flu-outbreak-mink-farm-spain), no farm workers were infected during this outbreak, and Spanish mink farm workers are required to wear respirators to protect against COVID-19. Eleven farmworkers came in contact with infected mink, but [all tested negative for H5N1](https://www-nature-com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/articles/d41586-023-00201-2).\n\nScientists have sounded the alarm that a mink farm could generate a virus that spreads efficiently from mink to mink, and that this virus might also be capable of efficient human-to-human transmission.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **yes** if by the end of March 31st, 2024, any credible source reports the death of at least one mink farm worker due to any strain of bird flu between Jan 1st, 2023 and the 31st of December, 2023. 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All minks were culled and destroyed, and no farm workers were infected.\n\nHowever, the outbreak raised concerns that H5N1 may be showing signs of acquiring mammal-to-mammal spread. The current outbreak in [wild birds and poultry](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) is the worst in US history, with over 60 million birds dead. The virus has spilled over into a range of mammalian species, but the October mink farm outbreak is the first likely case of spread of the virus from mammal to mammal.\n\n[According to CIDRAP](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/researchers-detail-h5n1-avian-flu-outbreak-mink-farm-spain), no farm workers were infected during this outbreak, and Spanish mink farm workers are required to wear respirators to protect against COVID-19. Eleven farmworkers came in contact with infected mink, but [all tested negative for H5N1](https://www-nature-com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/articles/d41586-023-00201-2).\n\nScientists have sounded the alarm that a mink farm could generate a virus that spreads efficiently from mink to mink, and that this virus might also be capable of efficient human-to-human transmission." }, { "id": 15102, "title": "Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?", "short_title": "War between Egypt and Israel", "url_title": "War between Egypt and Israel", "slug": "war-between-egypt-and-israel", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-10T11:28:22.454136Z", "published_at": "2023-04-25T07:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.408246Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-25T07:22:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-25T07:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 139, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15102, "title": "Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-02-10T11:28:22.454136Z", "open_time": "2023-04-25T07:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-27T07:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-27T07:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Egypt and Israel have a history of military conflicts. In total, [five wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Israel#Table) (including the low-intensity War of Attrition) have been fought with Egyptian and Israeli forces on opposing sides. Since the [1978 Camp David accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_David_Accords), however, no such conflicts have taken place. Despite this, conflicts may arise in the future. In Egypt, [84%](https://arabcenterdc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Arab-Opinion-Index-Fig-27.png) of the population opposes diplomatic recognition of Israel, while only 13% support it ([full survey](https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/arab-opinion-index-2022-executive-summary/)) This is despite the Egyptian government doing so over 40 years ago.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 deaths in Egypt and Israel as a result of state-based violence between the two within a one-year period prior to the resolution date. If such a conflict begins less than one year prior to the resolution date, deaths which occur after that date will not be counted. If this does not occur before 12 AM on January 1, 2030, this question resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15102, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758460908.459405, "end_time": 1758923943.058557, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758460908.459405, "end_time": 1758923943.058557, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.08135061801099529 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.147496969187098, 5.7996937057379805, 1.2857787671611365, 1.1290043594404284, 0.14418904406485514, 2.679321577762176, 0.9612463746033817, 0.2337189303923572, 0.01003939586951448, 0.0, 2.3735030533710817, 0.0, 0.012314071750091816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16707712276708098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012916096379175438, 0.0, 0.0013664321495393179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010794047745141787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04310132783127913, 0.0, 0.00041295435572566907, 7.189976312634683e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.425306066939821, 0.0, 0.5174610568612125, 0.0, 0.28391186165581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19650407754666452 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287501.350562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287501.350562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9985418929173636, 0.0014581070826364135 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 252, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Egypt and Israel have a history of military conflicts. In total, [five wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Israel#Table) (including the low-intensity War of Attrition) have been fought with Egyptian and Israeli forces on opposing sides. Since the [1978 Camp David accords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_David_Accords), however, no such conflicts have taken place. Despite this, conflicts may arise in the future. In Egypt, [84%](https://arabcenterdc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Arab-Opinion-Index-Fig-27.png) of the population opposes diplomatic recognition of Israel, while only 13% support it ([full survey](https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/arab-opinion-index-2022-executive-summary/)) This is despite the Egyptian government doing so over 40 years ago." } ] }
](http://84%25](https://arabcenterdc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Arab-Opinion-Index-Fig-27.png)){kind=link}