Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3420
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3440", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3400", "results": [ { "id": 15098, "title": "Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?", "short_title": "Russia's Democratisation post-Putin", "url_title": "Russia's Democratisation post-Putin", "slug": "russias-democratisation-post-putin", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-09T15:33:54.796833Z", "published_at": "2023-02-15T15:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T14:39:03.050841Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-15T15:55:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-02-15T15:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 140, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15098, "title": "Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?", "created_at": "2023-02-09T15:33:54.796833Z", "open_time": "2023-02-15T15:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-16T02:49:40.726927Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-16T02:49:40.726927Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia began a process of political and economic reforms aimed at creating a democratic system. The first president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, sought to establish a multiparty system and market economy, but his efforts were hampered by political and economic difficulties. However, in 1999, Yeltsin resigned and was succeeded by Vladimir Putin, who has been in power ever since. Under Putin, Russia has seen a consolidation of power in the hands of the presidency, and the suppression of political opposition and independent media, resulting in what has been called one of the most [“consequential setbacks among the third and fourth waves of democratization”.](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s successful defence and resultant Russian military losses, there has been significant discussion about a post-Putin Russia, with the possibility of a [coup](https://www.businessinsider.com/military-coup-russia-likely-anger-grows-toward-putin-ex-aide-2023-1?r=US&IR=T) raised by many.\n\n[Analysts](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) are [divided](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-political-regimes/) on what a Russia after Putin will look like; though it remains quite likely that the years following Putin’s departure as president will be a potential turning point for Russia and for democracy.\n\n> What happens to Russian autocracy after Putin, however, is more uncertain. The current regime is deeply tied to Putin personally. Strikingly, Putin has failed at building an effective political party; United Russia bears little resemblance to the CPSU or the Chinese Communist Party today. \n\n> Russians are shaped but not trapped forever by historical legacies, immutable cultural norms, or static institutions. If some Russians in the past took decisions that produced autocracy, others in the future might make choices that engender democracy. It happened before and can again. \n\nHow Russia will change (if it does) after Putin ceases to be president has large potential effects for the security landscape in Europe and geopolitical balances of power worldwide.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if (i) Putin is no longer President of Russia and (ii) within 5 years of (i), Russia is listed as a Transitional or Hybrid Regime (or better) according to Freedom House. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if (i) Putin is no longer President of Russia and (ii) for the first 5 full years after (i), Russia is listed as a Consolidated Authoritarian Regime or a Semi-Consolidated Authoritarian Regime according to Freedom House. \n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguously** if Freedom House no longer publishes its Democracy Status reports, or if Russia ceases to exist as a nation in a recognisable form.\n\nRussia’s status as a Transitional/Hybrid Regime will be ascertained based on the classification by Freedom House. In the most recent [Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/explore-the-map?type=nit&year=2022) report on the democracy status of a number of Central European and Central Asian countries, Russia scores 5/100, being classified as a ‘Consolidated Authoritarian regime’, down from 7/100 in the previous year. In order to be classified as a Transitional Regime, which includes countries that are typically [“electoral democracies where democratic institutions are fragile, and substantial challenges to the protection of political rights and civil liberties exist”](https://freedomhouse.org/reports/nations-transit/nations-transit-methodology), Russia would have to gain at least 29 points. This would represent a substantive democratisation of Russia, requiring substantial reform. \n\nAs an example for how the resolution timeframe with respect to the categorisation as a transitional regime would work, assume Putin ceases to be President of Russia at some point in 2025, as this is [an outcome discussed in a recent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/). In this case, the relevant final year of analysis is 2030, i.e., the fifth full year after the cut-off point", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15098, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757774332.634488, "end_time": 1766421773.414396, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757774332.634488, "end_time": 1766421773.414396, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.18608367104077958 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.6392605342604778, 1.9271802750932503, 0.0034881143068764067, 0.20220999155894348, 0.18773966181220603, 0.8838319462900156, 0.04296876176870387, 0.9137142559205427, 0.9818573699151525, 0.4134951906335754, 2.9396164741698327, 0.022526643603208007, 2.0954938854577807, 0.0974231740890221, 1.0, 0.9904086130269759, 0.025095107399378088, 0.0009571900459107589, 0.0, 0.2401809620198541, 0.7018778204323539, 0.39820023486657397, 0.7724292722230318, 0.0, 0.002694916038571455, 1.3416667917874159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39830414867357755, 0.0012961970979316233, 0.7394733892904021, 0.0, 0.00021806544493256714, 0.001472794766897504, 0.4525355414130429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2838663804899544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13526144014436464, 0.0, 0.7442462961484586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04099294670905126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020364962759614087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3271965194342268, 0.0, 0.020788979790154795, 0.17423677577556576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5162884961722409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31737680677217184 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287802.466683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287802.466683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 124, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9598342013265682, 0.04016579867343181 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 284, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia began a process of political and economic reforms aimed at creating a democratic system. The first president of the Russian Federation, Boris Yeltsin, sought to establish a multiparty system and market economy, but his efforts were hampered by political and economic difficulties. However, in 1999, Yeltsin resigned and was succeeded by Vladimir Putin, who has been in power ever since. Under Putin, Russia has seen a consolidation of power in the hands of the presidency, and the suppression of political opposition and independent media, resulting in what has been called one of the most [“consequential setbacks among the third and fourth waves of democratization”.](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s successful defence and resultant Russian military losses, there has been significant discussion about a post-Putin Russia, with the possibility of a [coup](https://www.businessinsider.com/military-coup-russia-likely-anger-grows-toward-putin-ex-aide-2023-1?r=US&IR=T) raised by many.\n\n[Analysts](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russias-road-to-autocracy/) are [divided](https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/ukraine-and-russia-war-and-political-regimes/) on what a Russia after Putin will look like; though it remains quite likely that the years following Putin’s departure as president will be a potential turning point for Russia and for democracy.\n\n> What happens to Russian autocracy after Putin, however, is more uncertain. The current regime is deeply tied to Putin personally. Strikingly, Putin has failed at building an effective political party; United Russia bears little resemblance to the CPSU or the Chinese Communist Party today. \n\n> Russians are shaped but not trapped forever by historical legacies, immutable cultural norms, or static institutions. If some Russians in the past took decisions that produced autocracy, others in the future might make choices that engender democracy. It happened before and can again. \n\nHow Russia will change (if it does) after Putin ceases to be president has large potential effects for the security landscape in Europe and geopolitical balances of power worldwide." }, { "id": 15096, "title": "Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?", "short_title": "US involvement in Nord Stream explosion", "url_title": "US involvement in Nord Stream explosion", "slug": "us-involvement-in-nord-stream-explosion", "author_id": 129011, "author_username": "AlexL", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119767, "username": "PhilippSchoenegger" } ], "created_at": "2023-02-09T14:02:11.864143Z", "published_at": "2023-02-09T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.735333Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-09T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T13:37:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-09T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15096, "title": "Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-02-09T14:02:11.864143Z", "open_time": "2023-02-09T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-09T21:31:04.872308Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-09T21:31:04.872308Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T13:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-31T13:43:43.449910Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "On 26 September 2022, a series of explosions were [reported](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pressure-defunct-nord-stream-2-pipeline-plunged-overnight-operator-2022-09-26/) to have damaged Nord Stream pipelines 1 and 2, which transported natural gas from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea. These explosions resulted in subsequent underwater methane leaks, rendering the pipelines inoperable. The Russian state-owned gas company, Gazprom, is the majority owner of both pipelines. [At the time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_Russia%E2%80%93European_Union_gas_dispute), Nord Stream 1 was operating at reduced capacity and Nord Stream 2 was not operating at all, though both contained gas. \n\nIn the months that followed, several European governments - especially those of [Sweden](https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/regeringen-haller-presstraff-om-gaslackagen-vid-nord-stream) and [Denmark](https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/mette-frederiksen-myndigheder-vurderer-laekager-var-bevidst-sabotage) - claimed that these explosions were a direct result of sabotage. In the following weeks, investigations concluded that a deliberate detonation had occurred, as remains of explosives [were found](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/nov/18/russia-ukraine-war-live-missile-strikes-leave-10-million-ukrainians-without-power-says-zelenskiy) near the blast site. The investigation was still ongoing in early 2023 with [no conclusive evidence yet announced](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/21/russia-nord-stream-explosions/).\n\nOn February 8, 2023, Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Seymour Hersh published a [blog post](https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream) asserting that the United States had executed a covert sea operation to sabotage the Nord Stream pipeline system last September. Hersh's blog claimed that:\n>Last June, the Navy divers, operating under the cover of a widely publicized mid-summer NATO exercise known as BALTOPS 22, planted the remotely triggered explosives that, three months later, destroyed three of the four Nord Stream pipelines, according to a source with direct knowledge of the operational planning.\n\nThat same day, the White House [denied](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-says-blog-post-nord-stream-explosion-is-utterly-false-2023-02-08/) Hersh's allegations, which have not yet been corroborated, dismissing them as \"false and complete fiction.\"\n\n***Will any NATO member’s investigation conclude that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?***\n\nThis questions will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, an official investigation, conducted by - or on behalf of - any NATO member's government, finds the US was involved in a deliberate sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline on September 26, 2022. \n\nFor the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a [credible media source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) for this question to resolve as Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15096, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735649543.296708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735649543.296708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 127, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.013442209130785325 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.783931939120023, 5.142049489351223, 0.8526303643442417, 0.6939299010758491, 0.0009972303953893703, 0.1737838869844728, 0.0, 0.0025340789343860424, 0.42035954870005865, 0.042182379466914596, 0.7037327160759264, 0.009694679114516061, 0.01044926396435134, 0.0, 0.0, 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}, { "id": 15095, "title": "Will Adani Enterprises regain a total market cap of $50B before 2028?", "short_title": "Adani Market Cap Recovery by 2028", "url_title": "Adani Market Cap Recovery by 2028", "slug": "adani-market-cap-recovery-by-2028", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-09T09:16:14.799715Z", "published_at": "2023-02-18T15:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.969554Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-18T15:55:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-06T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-02-18T15:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15095, "title": "Will Adani Enterprises regain a total market cap of $50B before 2028?", "created_at": "2023-02-09T09:16:14.799715Z", "open_time": "2023-02-18T15:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-20T15:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-20T15:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-06T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Adani Group](https://www.adani.com/) is a conglomerate of companies headquartered in India. It is one of the largest business houses in India, with interests in diverse sectors such as ports and logistics, agribusiness, energy, real estate, financial services, and defense. In early 2023, it had a total market cap of over [$200B](https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/our-groups-combined-market-cap-exceeds-200-billion-says-gautam-adani/articleshow/93130894.cms). Its \"flagship\" company, [Adani Enterprises](https://www.adanienterprises.com/), had a total market cap of over [$50B](https://companiesmarketcap.com/adani-enterprises/marketcap/) with a P/E ratio of 343 at the height in September 2022. \n\nOn January 24, 2023, Hindenburg Research, a short-selling investment research firm, published [a report](https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani/) on the Adani Group and its Founder and Chairman Gautam Adani, who was the 3rd richest man in the world. In it, they alleged widespread accounting fraud and stock manipulation over the course of decades. \n\n> We have identified 38 Mauritius shell entities controlled by Vinod Adani or close associates. We have identified entities that are also surreptitiously controlled by Vinod Adani in Cyprus, the UAE, Singapore, and several Caribbean Islands.\n\n> Many of the Vinod Adani-associated entities have no obvious signs of operations, including no reported employees, no independent addresses or phone numbers and no meaningful online presence. Despite this, they have collectively moved billions of dollars into Indian Adani publicly listed and private entities, often without required disclosure of the related party nature of the deals.\n\n> The Vinod-Adani shells seem to serve several functions, including (1) stock parking / stock manipulation (2) and laundering money through Adani’s private companies onto the listed companies’ balance sheets in order to maintain the appearance of financial health and solvency.\n\n> This offshore shell network also seems to be used for earnings manipulation.\n\nIn response to this report, the total market cap of Adani Group crashed [by over $100B](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-09/adani-share-price-collapse-will-reverberate-in-india), representing a roughly 50% drop that was spread relatively equally amongst its constituent companies such as Adani Enterprises, which dropped to a level of [$24.50B as of early February 2023](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-09/adani-share-price-collapse-will-reverberate-in-india). Even a [413-page response](https://www.adani.com/-/media/Project/Adani/Invetsors/Adani-Response-to-Hindenburg-January-29-2023.pdf?la=en) from Adani could not convince the markets of the financial health of the group. Hindenburg's estimated downside for the group is at [85%](https://www.economist.com/business/2023/01/26/hindenburgs-critique-of-the-adani-empire)\n\nThe Adani response, as analysts have [pointed out](https://qz.com/adani-has-turned-to-nationalism-amid-fraud-allegations-1850047379), resolves to framing the short seller’s report as an attack on India, as Adani has been seen as central to the economic prospects of India, for example via its ['Make in India'](https://www.adanienterprises.com/businesses/defence-and-aerospace#:~:text=Adani%20Defence%20and%20Aerospace%20leads,'Make%20in%20India'%20initiative.) defense operations. This raises additional geopolitical issues that complicate the overall picture, as the risks of a group-wide collapse may substantially impact parts of the Indian economy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total market cap of Adani Enterprises is $50B or above before January 1, 2028. For the purposes of this question, the market cap only has to be at or above $50B at any point of this time-frame and does not need to be above the threshold at the end of 2027.\n\nThe relevant currency for market cap will be USD. If no sources list the total market cap in USD, conversions with the relevant exchange rate will be used to arrive at USD valuations.\n\nResolution will be based on [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/adani-enterprises/marketcap/) or, if this source is not available, others like [YahooFinance]( https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/adanient.ns/) may be used as long as they capture total market cap.", "fine_print": "This question uses market cap for Adani Enterprises instead of Adani Group as the former is straightforwardly verifiable without introducing a variety of risks that may make resolution ambiguous such as changes in the composition of the group, some parts of the group being taken private, or similar sources of uncertainty.", "post_id": 15095, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758202307.498345, "end_time": 1765032847.424608, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2617028690398061 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758202307.498345, "end_time": 1765032847.424608, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2617028690398061 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22009838174113663 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7171361101549734, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290191.380774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290191.380774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7008163310487352, 0.29918366895126475 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Adani Group](https://www.adani.com/) is a conglomerate of companies headquartered in India. It is one of the largest business houses in India, with interests in diverse sectors such as ports and logistics, agribusiness, energy, real estate, financial services, and defense. In early 2023, it had a total market cap of over [$200B](https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/our-groups-combined-market-cap-exceeds-200-billion-says-gautam-adani/articleshow/93130894.cms). Its \"flagship\" company, [Adani Enterprises](https://www.adanienterprises.com/), had a total market cap of over [$50B](https://companiesmarketcap.com/adani-enterprises/marketcap/) with a P/E ratio of 343 at the height in September 2022. \n\nOn January 24, 2023, Hindenburg Research, a short-selling investment research firm, published [a report](https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani/) on the Adani Group and its Founder and Chairman Gautam Adani, who was the 3rd richest man in the world. In it, they alleged widespread accounting fraud and stock manipulation over the course of decades. \n\n> We have identified 38 Mauritius shell entities controlled by Vinod Adani or close associates. We have identified entities that are also surreptitiously controlled by Vinod Adani in Cyprus, the UAE, Singapore, and several Caribbean Islands.\n\n> Many of the Vinod Adani-associated entities have no obvious signs of operations, including no reported employees, no independent addresses or phone numbers and no meaningful online presence. Despite this, they have collectively moved billions of dollars into Indian Adani publicly listed and private entities, often without required disclosure of the related party nature of the deals.\n\n> The Vinod-Adani shells seem to serve several functions, including (1) stock parking / stock manipulation (2) and laundering money through Adani’s private companies onto the listed companies’ balance sheets in order to maintain the appearance of financial health and solvency.\n\n> This offshore shell network also seems to be used for earnings manipulation.\n\nIn response to this report, the total market cap of Adani Group crashed [by over $100B](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-09/adani-share-price-collapse-will-reverberate-in-india), representing a roughly 50% drop that was spread relatively equally amongst its constituent companies such as Adani Enterprises, which dropped to a level of [$24.50B as of early February 2023](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-09/adani-share-price-collapse-will-reverberate-in-india). Even a [413-page response](https://www.adani.com/-/media/Project/Adani/Invetsors/Adani-Response-to-Hindenburg-January-29-2023.pdf?la=en) from Adani could not convince the markets of the financial health of the group. Hindenburg's estimated downside for the group is at [85%](https://www.economist.com/business/2023/01/26/hindenburgs-critique-of-the-adani-empire)\n\nThe Adani response, as analysts have [pointed out](https://qz.com/adani-has-turned-to-nationalism-amid-fraud-allegations-1850047379), resolves to framing the short seller’s report as an attack on India, as Adani has been seen as central to the economic prospects of India, for example via its ['Make in India'](https://www.adanienterprises.com/businesses/defence-and-aerospace#:~:text=Adani%20Defence%20and%20Aerospace%20leads,'Make%20in%20India'%20initiative.) defense operations. This raises additional geopolitical issues that complicate the overall picture, as the risks of a group-wide collapse may substantially impact parts of the Indian economy." }, { "id": 15088, "title": "Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?", "short_title": "US Debt Downgraded in 2023", "url_title": "US Debt Downgraded in 2023", "slug": "us-debt-downgraded-in-2023", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-07T21:48:29.448852Z", "published_at": "2023-02-12T08:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.047211Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-12T08:25:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T21:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T21:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-12T08:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15088, "title": "Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-07T21:48:29.448852Z", "open_time": "2023-02-12T08:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-14T08:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-14T08:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T21:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-01T21:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T21:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of February 2023, US government debt is rated AAA by Fitch, Aaa by Moody's and AA+ by S&P. These ratings indicate high creditworthiness. Recent discussion has focused on whether the US government will default in the near future due to the [debt ceiling](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-happens-when-us-hits-its-debt-ceiling) being [hit](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64322574). A default may lead to a downgrade in credit rating, which may lead to higher borrowing costs and lower liquidity.\n\nThe \"big three\" credit rating agencies listed above reassess their ratings several times per year, or after major events such as currency shocks, recessions, or changes in fiscal policy.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2024, the credit rating for US sovereign debt is worse than AAA for Fitch, worse than Aaa for Moody's, or worse than AA+ for S&P. Ratings \"outlooks\" like stable, negative, or positive will not be considered. Resolution source is official announcement from the ratings agencies, which can currently be found below:\n\n* [Fitch](https://www.fitchratings.com/entity/united-states-of-america-80442210)\n\n* [Moody's](https://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/United-States-of-America-Government-of-credit-rating-790575?cy=can)\n\n* [S&P](https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/press-releases", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15088, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690924902.087844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690924902.087844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.14293071775260255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.316876429279165, 2.6453051136453722, 2.4331768507492364, 0.5882704792100008, 0.6447510370927527, 0.7659065160475311, 0.0, 1.4612774235738175, 0.17652900265006702, 0.20070646273437914, 0.03627506129959581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8096751149534416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026430157778456278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6187082768234327, 0.009723111673611546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022263149504593318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.018546053356138 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.8657113379815535, "coverage": 0.5286839591519544, "baseline_score": -125.17660514939686, "spot_peer_score": 44.59735922785582, "peer_archived_score": 2.8657113379815535, "baseline_archived_score": -125.17660514939686, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.59735922785582 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690875609.879221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690875609.879221, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9948423401560179, 0.005157659843982089 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 139, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of February 2023, US government debt is rated AAA by Fitch, Aaa by Moody's and AA+ by S&P. These ratings indicate high creditworthiness. Recent discussion has focused on whether the US government will default in the near future due to the [debt ceiling](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-happens-when-us-hits-its-debt-ceiling) being [hit](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64322574). A default may lead to a downgrade in credit rating, which may lead to higher borrowing costs and lower liquidity.\n\nThe \"big three\" credit rating agencies listed above reassess their ratings several times per year, or after major events such as currency shocks, recessions, or changes in fiscal policy." }, { "id": 15085, "title": "Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?", "short_title": "Ukrainian Parli. Elections 2023 on Schedule", "url_title": "Ukrainian Parli. Elections 2023 on Schedule", "slug": "ukrainian-parli-elections-2023-on-schedule", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-07T13:53:35.524610Z", "published_at": "2023-02-14T15:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.939872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-14T15:54:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-14T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-14T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:17:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-14T15:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15085, "title": "Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-07T13:53:35.524610Z", "open_time": "2023-02-14T15:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-16T15:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-16T15:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-30T23:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-30T23:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-14T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-14T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The last Ukrainian parliamentary election was held on [21 July, 2019](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-elections/2748306-cec-counts-100-percent-of-vote-in-ukraines-parliamentary-elections.html). According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), the next election must be “held on the last Sunday of October of the fifth year of authority of the parliament.” This sets the date by which parliamentary elections ought to be held at 29 October, 2023. The election date has [not yet been confirmed](https://ukraine-elections.com.ua/en/election_data/upcoming_elections).\n\nSince Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, just under [20%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine#:~:text=However%2C%20by%2011%20November%2C%20the,about%2018%25%20of%20Ukraine's%20territory.) of Ukraine’s territory have been occupied, and fighting extends across much of the East and South. Further, due to the imposition of martial law and the threat of Russian military successes, there is some doubt about whether the parliamentary elections will be held on schedule. This is especially pressing as Ukraine’s [EU aspirations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/ukraine-could-become-eu-member-what-would-mean) will add to the difficulty of this decision.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the Ukrainian parliamentary elections are held before 30 October, 2023. This will be ascertained based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the election.\n\nFor an election to count for the purposes of this question, it has to have at least 50% of the [2019 turnout](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), i.e. at least 14,986,870 votes cast. This condition is there to ensure that elections are not only held in a small part of the country but are indeed nationwide elections.\n\nThis question will resolve **No** otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15085, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697216915.383157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697216915.383157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04440896716622129 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.964607477405179, 8.543777263239491, 0.2506341547763609, 0.4402137645092299, 0.0, 0.5742105041668133, 0.0819027810168348, 0.0, 0.018320424718864442, 0.006338741283070649, 0.036603128193672764, 0.0, 0.010624089654698259, 0.0, 0.011707819368802578, 0.03618554893089769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004003664807775071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032331371144735485, 0.0, 0.18151865870128317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005852206626807848, 0.022088484576423383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026668637948713955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017873414785854367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009137994324451541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002053222160297131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006066352925394429, 0.0, 0.002733989519125462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002071361526079036, 0.0, 0.003117676036554478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010969478514417234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5561350755584805 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 35.32159307139242, "coverage": 0.9984299722535741, "baseline_score": 20.5567017073101, "spot_peer_score": -1.3821896552678838, "peer_archived_score": 35.32159307139242, "baseline_archived_score": 20.5567017073101, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.3821896552678838 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1697269302.729445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1697269302.729445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9987766932087426, 0.0012233067912573656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 261, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The last Ukrainian parliamentary election was held on [21 July, 2019](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-elections/2748306-cec-counts-100-percent-of-vote-in-ukraines-parliamentary-elections.html). According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), the next election must be “held on the last Sunday of October of the fifth year of authority of the parliament.” This sets the date by which parliamentary elections ought to be held at 29 October, 2023. The election date has [not yet been confirmed](https://ukraine-elections.com.ua/en/election_data/upcoming_elections).\n\nSince Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, just under [20%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine#:~:text=However%2C%20by%2011%20November%2C%20the,about%2018%25%20of%20Ukraine's%20territory.) of Ukraine’s territory have been occupied, and fighting extends across much of the East and South. Further, due to the imposition of martial law and the threat of Russian military successes, there is some doubt about whether the parliamentary elections will be held on schedule. This is especially pressing as Ukraine’s [EU aspirations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/ukraine-could-become-eu-member-what-would-mean) will add to the difficulty of this decision." }, { "id": 15084, "title": "If Erdoğan loses the 2023 presidential election, will he abdicate the presidency?", "short_title": "Erdoğan Abdicating After Election Defeat", "url_title": "Erdoğan Abdicating After Election Defeat", "slug": "erdogan-abdicating-after-election-defeat", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-07T11:02:18.219034Z", "published_at": "2023-02-13T15:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.398615Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-13T15:54:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-29T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-29T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-13T15:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 126, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15084, "title": "If Erdoğan loses the 2023 presidential election, will he abdicate the presidency?", "created_at": "2023-02-07T11:02:18.219034Z", "open_time": "2023-02-13T15:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-14T13:54:26.006922Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-14T13:54:26.006922Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-05-29T02:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-05-29T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-29T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Türkiye (previously known as 'Turkey') is scheduled to have its next presidential election on June 18, 2023. However, President Erdoğan suggested that it may be held on May 14, 2023 instead, which has been [confirmed in late January 2023](https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/president-erdogan-confirms-may-14-elections-date-in-t%C3%BCrkiye-64770). Erdoğan has been president of Türkiye since 2014, having previously served as Prime Minister. This election is crucial because Erdoğan is [aiming to extend his 20-year rule in elections that will decide not just who leads Türkiye but how it is governed, where its economy is headed and what role it may play to ease conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/whats-stake-turkeys-upcoming-elections-2023-01-18/)\n\nThis election has been called the “World’s Most Important” by [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-09/will-erdogan-stay-or-go-in-2023-turkey-s-election-is-the-one-to-watch), as there is a risk that Erdoğan will not concede a potential election defeat and stay in power. Just [in 2019](https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/istanbul-election-remaking-of-turkeys-new-political-landscape), in Istanbul’s municipal election, “the opposition candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, won a landslide victory over his rival. The governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has arguably suffered its most severe defeat since coming to power in 2002,” suggesting that the possibility of an electoral defeat is higher than may be expected. This is against the backdrop of [some polls](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/turkeys-centenary-could-mark-the-end-of-the-erdogan-era) showing several opposition candidates having sizable support that may translate into electoral victory.\n\nWith some analysts calling Türkiye a [‘one-man rule’](https://carnegieeurope.eu/2022/02/22/turkey-under-erdo-how-country-turned-from-democracy-and-west-pub-86045) through the [erosion of democratic institutions](https://pomed.org/publication/as-nato-convenes-erdogans-authoritarianism-remains-an-awkward-problem/), Erdoğan’s actions in the case of an electoral defeat could be decisive in setting the path for Türkiye going forward.\n\nFurther, the constitutionality of Erdoğan’s third potential term has been challenged: [The opposition declares Erdogan’s candidacy “unconstitutional” while the Turkish president says his path to run for a third term is \"clear.\"](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/01/can-erdogan-run-third-term-turkeys-upcoming-election)\n\n> The argument swirling around the presidential election, which is due to be held alongside a parliamentary vote on May 14, centers on Article 101 of the Turkish Constitution. The eight-paragraph clause states that a presidential term runs for five years and a candidate can be elected for a maximum of two terms.\n\n> The constitution, therefore, appears to rule out an Erdogan candidacy.\n\n> His supporters back the legality of his candidacy by arguing that constitutional changes introduced in a 2017 referendum, which came into force in the following year’s election, mean Erdogan’s first, post-2014 term does not count.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Erdoğan does not win the 2023 presidential elections and is not president on December 31, 2023. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if Erdoğan does not win the 2023 presidential elections and is still president on December 31, 2023. \n\nThe antecedent (determining the outcomes of the election) will be resolved based on the relevant [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15036/2023-presidential-election-in-t%25C3%25BCrkiye/) of this election, which uses [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) of the election as the resolution criterion. \n\nThe consequent (determining whether Erdoğan is still president) will be resolved based on who will be listed on the [official website of the Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye](https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/) on December 31, 2023 at 00:00, GMT+3. \n\nIf Erdoğan wins the 2023 presidential election, or if the relevant Metaculus question about the election resolves ambiguously, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15084, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685378022.091538, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685378022.091538, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7181805275230181 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6558395405859315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005844760675731369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04465034438090857, 0.0, 0.0, 5.48582156804221e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.625358952009665e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3050325957355424, 0.0005623901265472414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5262563034192477, 0.030838065232491742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5428492160228193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1499290484336402, 1.1192548507190692, 0.03505053904480797, 0.8355950751261234, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9930933295379423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18218933527310993, 0.8044844537480814, 0.04150657392327546, 0.003189961008597852, 0.0, 0.43488775533237434, 0.3579591046479703, 0.05409822688037131, 0.09499466280863372, 0.6069908962044571, 1.3520432431865892, 1.1172731194666674, 0.019367260417392767, 0.2280528643970415, 0.0, 0.06813318232676653, 2.140337359331178, 0.45627223026164093, 0.01935388177610526, 1.1801161311457835, 0.8587493889903177, 1.097289600428269, 0.050855809812215796, 0.0, 0.10221260723848555, 0.0021854082042224564, 0.45810909831104135, 0.9208402575561426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15752024677414223, 0.762981869412028, 0.0, 0.0, 1.136791111378235 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685432784.358531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685432784.358531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.26076483790655447, 0.7392351620934455 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 313, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Türkiye (previously known as 'Turkey') is scheduled to have its next presidential election on June 18, 2023. However, President Erdoğan suggested that it may be held on May 14, 2023 instead, which has been [confirmed in late January 2023](https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/president-erdogan-confirms-may-14-elections-date-in-t%C3%BCrkiye-64770). Erdoğan has been president of Türkiye since 2014, having previously served as Prime Minister. This election is crucial because Erdoğan is [aiming to extend his 20-year rule in elections that will decide not just who leads Türkiye but how it is governed, where its economy is headed and what role it may play to ease conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/whats-stake-turkeys-upcoming-elections-2023-01-18/)\n\nThis election has been called the “World’s Most Important” by [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-09/will-erdogan-stay-or-go-in-2023-turkey-s-election-is-the-one-to-watch), as there is a risk that Erdoğan will not concede a potential election defeat and stay in power. Just [in 2019](https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/istanbul-election-remaking-of-turkeys-new-political-landscape), in Istanbul’s municipal election, “the opposition candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, won a landslide victory over his rival. The governing Justice and Development Party (AK Party) has arguably suffered its most severe defeat since coming to power in 2002,” suggesting that the possibility of an electoral defeat is higher than may be expected. This is against the backdrop of [some polls](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/turkeys-centenary-could-mark-the-end-of-the-erdogan-era) showing several opposition candidates having sizable support that may translate into electoral victory.\n\nWith some analysts calling Türkiye a [‘one-man rule’](https://carnegieeurope.eu/2022/02/22/turkey-under-erdo-how-country-turned-from-democracy-and-west-pub-86045) through the [erosion of democratic institutions](https://pomed.org/publication/as-nato-convenes-erdogans-authoritarianism-remains-an-awkward-problem/), Erdoğan’s actions in the case of an electoral defeat could be decisive in setting the path for Türkiye going forward.\n\nFurther, the constitutionality of Erdoğan’s third potential term has been challenged: [The opposition declares Erdogan’s candidacy “unconstitutional” while the Turkish president says his path to run for a third term is \"clear.\"](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/01/can-erdogan-run-third-term-turkeys-upcoming-election)\n\n> The argument swirling around the presidential election, which is due to be held alongside a parliamentary vote on May 14, centers on Article 101 of the Turkish Constitution. The eight-paragraph clause states that a presidential term runs for five years and a candidate can be elected for a maximum of two terms.\n\n> The constitution, therefore, appears to rule out an Erdogan candidacy.\n\n> His supporters back the legality of his candidacy by arguing that constitutional changes introduced in a 2017 referendum, which came into force in the following year’s election, mean Erdogan’s first, post-2014 term does not count." }, { "id": 15077, "title": "Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?", "short_title": "10k Deaths Due to H5N1 Before 2024", "url_title": "10k Deaths Due to H5N1 Before 2024", "slug": "10k-deaths-due-to-h5n1-before-2024", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-07T00:33:22.980380Z", "published_at": "2023-02-08T00:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.532780Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-08T00:30:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-08T00:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15077, "title": "Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-07T00:33:22.980380Z", "open_time": "2023-02-08T00:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-09T01:18:49.284107Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-09T01:18:49.284107Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the World Health Organization, the case fatality rate of H5N1 avian influenza to date is [56%](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjYuqnc8YH9AhU4k4kEHU4PCvEQFnoECAoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.who.int%2Fdocs%2Fdefault-source%2Fwpro---documents%2Femergency%2Fsurveillance%2Favian-influenza%2Fai_20230106.pdf%3Fsfvrsn%3D5f006f99_108&usg=AOvVaw01YRFxzpAxbIC-2jQNbfLv). However, this is likely a [substantial overestimate](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18477756/) of the true mortality rate. Almost all of the 457 confirmed deaths occurred between 2003 and 2014.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, there have been at least 10,000 confirmed human deaths due to H5N1. This will resolve on the basis of figures compiled by the World Health Organization (WHO). \n\nIf WHO figures are not up-to-date as of January 1, 2024, then this question will resolve on the basis of other credible reporting on the number of confirmed deaths due to H5N1.", "fine_print": "The 10,000 confirmed deaths would all have to occur in 2023 — it would exclude deaths before 2023.", "post_id": 15077, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965644.935269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965644.935269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01275047236274986 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.913041420533583, 3.8186110066411834, 0.2676612221347445, 0.29999787840087266, 0.1634943225131542, 0.9082922000714213, 0.0, 0.15533933659248353, 0.017820921846768534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012792465124422179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37213983151560504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01138843172275674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.9693158874985468, "coverage": 0.9997325198798771, "baseline_score": 97.004865514265, "spot_peer_score": 1.6012695112294804, "peer_archived_score": 1.9693158874985468, "baseline_archived_score": 97.004865514265, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.6012695112294804 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008384.981327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008384.981327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 244, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the World Health Organization, the case fatality rate of H5N1 avian influenza to date is [56%](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjYuqnc8YH9AhU4k4kEHU4PCvEQFnoECAoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.who.int%2Fdocs%2Fdefault-source%2Fwpro---documents%2Femergency%2Fsurveillance%2Favian-influenza%2Fai_20230106.pdf%3Fsfvrsn%3D5f006f99_108&usg=AOvVaw01YRFxzpAxbIC-2jQNbfLv). However, this is likely a [substantial overestimate](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18477756/) of the true mortality rate. Almost all of the 457 confirmed deaths occurred between 2003 and 2014." }, { "id": 15076, "title": "Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine using Chemical Weapons Confirmed", "url_title": "Ukraine using Chemical Weapons Confirmed", "slug": "ukraine-using-chemical-weapons-confirmed", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-06T19:51:45.439047Z", "published_at": "2023-05-08T23:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.264993Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-08T23:55:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-05-08T23:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15076, "title": "Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-06T19:51:45.439047Z", "open_time": "2023-05-08T23:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-10T15:08:35.959759Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-10T15:08:35.959759Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 6, 2023, Denis Pushilin, the leader of the Russia-backed Donetsk People's Republic, [accused Ukraine](https://tass.com/defense/1571935) of having used chemical weapons on the Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) and Ugledar front lines. Pushilin claimed that Ukrainian forces had been using chemical weapons on Russian troops for at least three weeks. So far, no confirmation have been made of this claim, although [videos](https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/dpr-chief-warns-ukrainian-forces-use-drone-dropped-chemical) supposedly exist of Ukrainians preparing drones with chemical weapons on them for use against Russian troops.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, *any* of the following groups state that Ukrainian forces used chemical weapons against Russian troops:\n\n- The US Federal government\n- The Ukrainian government\n- The EU\n- NATO\n- The UN\n- The Institute for the Study of War\n\nAlternatively, Metaculus may use its discretion to determine if reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) confirm Ukrainian use of chemical weapons. \n\nIf this does not occur by the resolution date, this question resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15076, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076120.281169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076120.281169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008874328036324739 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.087853547717993, 4.208640058792491, 0.40194557542495973, 0.5648105818508302, 0.0, 0.12226327335101232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14989147521115825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004442640210629016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09022908093720004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.596999304353183, "coverage": 0.997756645329528, "baseline_score": 98.21275070888275, "spot_peer_score": 23.55802212268193, "peer_archived_score": 4.596999304353183, "baseline_archived_score": 98.21275070888275, "spot_peer_archived_score": 23.55802212268193 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704038282.36182, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704038282.36182, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 6, 2023, Denis Pushilin, the leader of the Russia-backed Donetsk People's Republic, [accused Ukraine](https://tass.com/defense/1571935) of having used chemical weapons on the Artyomovsk (Bakhmut) and Ugledar front lines. Pushilin claimed that Ukrainian forces had been using chemical weapons on Russian troops for at least three weeks. So far, no confirmation have been made of this claim, although [videos](https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/dpr-chief-warns-ukrainian-forces-use-drone-dropped-chemical) supposedly exist of Ukrainians preparing drones with chemical weapons on them for use against Russian troops." }, { "id": 15075, "title": "Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?", "short_title": "2023 Mink Farm Culling Due To Bird Flu", "url_title": "2023 Mink Farm Culling Due To Bird Flu", "slug": "2023-mink-farm-culling-due-to-bird-flu", "author_id": 120444, "author_username": "bskubi", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-05T17:55:49.317915Z", "published_at": "2023-02-06T18:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.035201Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-06T18:30:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T12:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T12:55:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-06T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15075, "title": "Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-05T17:55:49.317915Z", "open_time": "2023-02-06T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-07T23:09:00.090348Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-07T23:09:00.090348Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T12:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-01T12:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T12:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus*\n\n- [Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15025/who-pheic-declaration-on-h5n1/)\n- [Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15026/h5n1-human-to-human-transmission/)\n\n____\n\nThe current bird flu outbreak has [spilled over](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64474594) into a variety of mammalian species. In October 2022, an [H5N1 infection at a Spanish mink farm](https://www.science.org/content/article/incredibly-concerning-bird-flu-outbreak-spanish-mink-farm-triggers-pandemic-fears) appears to have spread from mink to mink, one of the first instances of mammal to mammal transmission. The animals were culled.\n\nThis [raised concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) of a repeat incident, with mink farms appearing as possible sites where mink-to-mink transmission could lead to evolution of a bird flu strain capable of efficient human-to-human transmission. Currently, human infections are [highly fatal](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) but occur only sporadically, primarily among poultry farmworkers in close contact with infected birds.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reports at least one additional mink farm culling after February 5, 2023 and before January 1st, 2024, due to an outbreak of bird flu among the minks. The question will resolve as **Yes** for any culling related to suspected bird flu, of any of the [avian influenza subtypes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza#:~:text=There%20are%20many%20subtypes%20of,H7N7%2C%20H7N9%2C%20and%20H9N2.), including but not limited to H5N1. 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In October 2022, an [H5N1 infection at a Spanish mink farm](https://www.science.org/content/article/incredibly-concerning-bird-flu-outbreak-spanish-mink-farm-triggers-pandemic-fears) appears to have spread from mink to mink, one of the first instances of mammal to mammal transmission. The animals were culled.\n\nThis [raised concerns](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) of a repeat incident, with mink farms appearing as possible sites where mink-to-mink transmission could lead to evolution of a bird flu strain capable of efficient human-to-human transmission. Currently, human infections are [highly fatal](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) but occur only sporadically, primarily among poultry farmworkers in close contact with infected birds." }, { "id": 15072, "title": "Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?", "short_title": "EU Climate Export Credit Expansion by 2025", "url_title": "EU Climate Export Credit Expansion by 2025", "slug": "eu-climate-export-credit-expansion-by-2025", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-05T15:14:34.674330Z", "published_at": "2023-02-17T15:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.271230Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-17T15:55:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-14T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-16T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-14T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-17T15:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15072, "title": "Will the Council of the European Union adopt the proposed expansion to climate-focused export credits before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-02-05T15:14:34.674330Z", "open_time": "2023-02-17T15:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-19T15:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-19T15:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-14T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T17:22:18.257907Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-16T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-14T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2012, the EU adopted the ‘Climate Change Sector Understanding’ (CCSU). It is a central part of the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, a set of export credit regulations adopted by [11 countries or blocs](https://www.oecd.org/trade/topics/export-credits/arrangement-and-sector-understandings/) (Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States). The goal of the CCSU was to focus on providing the “adequate financial terms and conditions to projects in selected sectors identified as significantly contributing to climate change mitigation, including renewable energy, [GHG] emissions’ reduction and high energy efficiency projects, climate change adaptation, as well as water projects’, according to the [explanatory memorandum](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52022PC0455). This was last updated in 2014. \n\nIn 2022, the European Commission published a [Proposal for a Council Decision](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52022PC0455), aiming to expand the scope of the CCSU on export credits for climate-related technologies, projects, and products. \n\n> The CCSU has the general objective to offer more advantageous financing terms and conditions for climate-friendly projects in third countries than are stipulated in the horizontal rules of the Arrangement, and so incentivise exports of climate-friendly technologies. However, the CCSU was last updated in 2014, and today the coverage of exports that can benefit from […] its rules is too narrow compared to the climate change goals it pursues. In particular, the scope of the CCSU focuses on the sectors of energy generation and transmission. The limited impact resulting from the narrow coverage does not effectively support the Participants’ commitments assumed under the Paris Agreement and the EU ambitions as expressed in its Green Deal agenda. In this context, the Participants have agreed to broaden the scope of the CCSU and have agreed on a number of sectors that should be included in the CCSU, namely:\n\n> Storage of electricity, including the manufacture and recycling of batteries.\n\n> Zero emissions transport, including enabling infrastructure.\n\n> Production of clean hydrogen, transmission, distribution and storage of hydrogen.\n\n> Transmission and distribution of low carbon electricity.\n\n> Low carbon manufacturing.\n\n\nThe EU’s [2030 Climate Target Plan](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/european-green-deal/2030-climate-target-plan_en) has been described as ambitious, and its willingness to finance novel climate technologies such as battery manufacturing and hydrogen storage may make the proposed change more likely as it could contribute to achieving these goals.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the proposal has been adopted by the Council of the European Union before January 1, 2025. This will resolve as **Yes** if the status of ‘2022/0276/NLE is changed to 'Adoption’ based on the [EUR-Lex tracker]( https://eur-lex.europa.eu/procedure/EN/2022_276?qid=1675607263408&rid=3) \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15072, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734077555.719139, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734077555.719139, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.25937501749932207 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6390484072978414, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2454644288051597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6094357670990451, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 10.62528408078437, "peer_score": 3.017630847312339, "coverage": 0.21937108834540342, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999994553409045, "spot_peer_score": 27.616154452759467, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 10.62528408078437, "peer_archived_score": 3.017630847312339, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.616154452759467, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287979.254693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287979.254693, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8418831255221298, 0.15811687447787015 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2012, the EU adopted the ‘Climate Change Sector Understanding’ (CCSU). It is a central part of the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, a set of export credit regulations adopted by [11 countries or blocs](https://www.oecd.org/trade/topics/export-credits/arrangement-and-sector-understandings/) (Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States). The goal of the CCSU was to focus on providing the “adequate financial terms and conditions to projects in selected sectors identified as significantly contributing to climate change mitigation, including renewable energy, [GHG] emissions’ reduction and high energy efficiency projects, climate change adaptation, as well as water projects’, according to the [explanatory memorandum](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52022PC0455). This was last updated in 2014. \n\nIn 2022, the European Commission published a [Proposal for a Council Decision](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52022PC0455), aiming to expand the scope of the CCSU on export credits for climate-related technologies, projects, and products. \n\n> The CCSU has the general objective to offer more advantageous financing terms and conditions for climate-friendly projects in third countries than are stipulated in the horizontal rules of the Arrangement, and so incentivise exports of climate-friendly technologies. However, the CCSU was last updated in 2014, and today the coverage of exports that can benefit from […] its rules is too narrow compared to the climate change goals it pursues. In particular, the scope of the CCSU focuses on the sectors of energy generation and transmission. The limited impact resulting from the narrow coverage does not effectively support the Participants’ commitments assumed under the Paris Agreement and the EU ambitions as expressed in its Green Deal agenda. In this context, the Participants have agreed to broaden the scope of the CCSU and have agreed on a number of sectors that should be included in the CCSU, namely:\n\n> Storage of electricity, including the manufacture and recycling of batteries.\n\n> Zero emissions transport, including enabling infrastructure.\n\n> Production of clean hydrogen, transmission, distribution and storage of hydrogen.\n\n> Transmission and distribution of low carbon electricity.\n\n> Low carbon manufacturing.\n\n\nThe EU’s [2030 Climate Target Plan](https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/european-green-deal/2030-climate-target-plan_en) has been described as ambitious, and its willingness to finance novel climate technologies such as battery manufacturing and hydrogen storage may make the proposed change more likely as it could contribute to achieving these goals." }, { "id": 15069, "title": "Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?", "short_title": "India's Climate Risk Increases by 2027", "url_title": "India's Climate Risk Increases by 2027", "slug": "indias-climate-risk-increases-by-2027", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-05T14:08:20.636482Z", "published_at": "2023-02-16T15:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.372368Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-16T15:55:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-12T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-06-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-02-16T15:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15069, "title": "Will India’s climate-driven risk rise more than 10% in 2027 relative to 2022?", "created_at": "2023-02-05T14:08:20.636482Z", "open_time": "2023-02-16T15:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-18T15:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-18T15:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-06-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-12T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-12T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "India is the world’s second most populous country and is one of the countries most at risk from climate change. More than three quarters of Indian districts are [extreme climate event hotspots](https://www.ceew.in/publications/preparing-india-for-extreme-climate-change-events-and-weather-conditions). Next to extreme heat, India faces floods, drought, cyclones, and cold waves. “[Extreme weather events resulting from climate change led to 495,000 human deaths across the world in 1999–2018](https://www.ceew.in/publications/preparing-india-for-extreme-climate-change-events-and-weather-conditions)”, while the total economic damage is estimated at USD 3.54 trillion (PPP) during the same 19 years. Several [reports and metrics](https://www.g20climaterisks.org/india/#:~:text=The%20science%20shows%20that%20India,25%20times%20higher%20than%201990.) have highlighted the specific risks of this for India. However, these risks are well understood in India and public policy is working towards addressing them. This makes the next few years crucial in an effort to reduce climate-driven risks for the country.\n\nThe [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/) reported in late 2022 about India’s Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development:\n\n> At COP27, India submitted its Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development (LTS) which provides a breakdown of initiatives by sector, but these do not go beyond current policies and general future direction. Based on its LTS, India plans to continue to develop coal in the long-term. Overall, the level of information provided is extremely limited with no emissions pathway to demonstrate how India will reach net zero by 2070. It remains unclear as to whether India’s net zero by 2070 target covers all greenhouse gas emissions, or just CO2. The CAT evaluates India's LTS as \"Poor\".\n\n> In August 2022, India officially submitted its updated NDC targets, having first announced new targets at COP26 in November 2021. It strengthened both the value of its 2030 emissions intensity target and the share of electricity that will come from non-fossil fuel-based sources, compared to its first NDC.\n\n> In essence, India has replaced its first NDC targets (that would have been overachieved) with targets close to its current level of climate action. India needs to propose further cuts in 2030 emissions, conditional to international finance, to put India on a 1.5°C pathway.\n\nOne way to quantitatively estimate the climate risk of a country is the [INFORM Risk Index](https://climatedata.imf.org/pages/fi-indicators#fr2) by the IMF. The INFORM Risk Index is a tool to assess climate-driven risks. It considers three factors: climate-related hazards & exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity. This allows for an integrated risk assessment that takes into consideration both general climate risks but also a country’s coping capacity that may alleviate these risks. Over the past three years, India’s risk index has [declined slightly to 5.3](https://climatedata.imf.org/datasets/7cae02f84ed547fbbd6210d90da19879_0/explore), putting it en par with Malawi and Nigeria. \n\nYear | INFORM Risk\n----- | -----\n2020 | 5.4\n2021 | 5.3\n2022 | 5.3", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if India’s INFORM Risk score is 5.9 or higher for the year 2027 (a more than 10% increase from 2022 levels). The data will be drawn from the IMF Climate-driven INFORM risk [dashboard](https://climatedata.imf.org/datasets/7cae02f84ed547fbbd6210d90da19879_0/explore). \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if India’s INFORM Risk score is 5.8 or lower for the year 2027. The data will be drawn from the IMF Climate-driven INFORM risk dashboard.\n\nIf this data series is discontinued, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15069, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746036019.043865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3238363266 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746036019.043865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3238363266 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.3965134530071705 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5937685107503201, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.2739859364129244, 1.567041997971615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288577.416504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288577.416504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7338537605854698, 0.26614623941453025 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "India is the world’s second most populous country and is one of the countries most at risk from climate change. More than three quarters of Indian districts are [extreme climate event hotspots](https://www.ceew.in/publications/preparing-india-for-extreme-climate-change-events-and-weather-conditions). Next to extreme heat, India faces floods, drought, cyclones, and cold waves. “[Extreme weather events resulting from climate change led to 495,000 human deaths across the world in 1999–2018](https://www.ceew.in/publications/preparing-india-for-extreme-climate-change-events-and-weather-conditions)”, while the total economic damage is estimated at USD 3.54 trillion (PPP) during the same 19 years. Several [reports and metrics](https://www.g20climaterisks.org/india/#:~:text=The%20science%20shows%20that%20India,25%20times%20higher%20than%201990.) have highlighted the specific risks of this for India. However, these risks are well understood in India and public policy is working towards addressing them. This makes the next few years crucial in an effort to reduce climate-driven risks for the country.\n\nThe [Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/) reported in late 2022 about India’s Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development:\n\n> At COP27, India submitted its Long-term Strategy for Low Carbon Development (LTS) which provides a breakdown of initiatives by sector, but these do not go beyond current policies and general future direction. Based on its LTS, India plans to continue to develop coal in the long-term. Overall, the level of information provided is extremely limited with no emissions pathway to demonstrate how India will reach net zero by 2070. It remains unclear as to whether India’s net zero by 2070 target covers all greenhouse gas emissions, or just CO2. The CAT evaluates India's LTS as \"Poor\".\n\n> In August 2022, India officially submitted its updated NDC targets, having first announced new targets at COP26 in November 2021. It strengthened both the value of its 2030 emissions intensity target and the share of electricity that will come from non-fossil fuel-based sources, compared to its first NDC.\n\n> In essence, India has replaced its first NDC targets (that would have been overachieved) with targets close to its current level of climate action. India needs to propose further cuts in 2030 emissions, conditional to international finance, to put India on a 1.5°C pathway.\n\nOne way to quantitatively estimate the climate risk of a country is the [INFORM Risk Index](https://climatedata.imf.org/pages/fi-indicators#fr2) by the IMF. The INFORM Risk Index is a tool to assess climate-driven risks. It considers three factors: climate-related hazards & exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity. This allows for an integrated risk assessment that takes into consideration both general climate risks but also a country’s coping capacity that may alleviate these risks. Over the past three years, India’s risk index has [declined slightly to 5.3](https://climatedata.imf.org/datasets/7cae02f84ed547fbbd6210d90da19879_0/explore), putting it en par with Malawi and Nigeria. \n\nYear | INFORM Risk\n----- | -----\n2020 | 5.4\n2021 | 5.3\n2022 | 5.3" }, { "id": 15026, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?", "short_title": "H5N1 human-to-human transmission", "url_title": "H5N1 human-to-human transmission", "slug": "h5n1-human-to-human-transmission", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-04T00:13:54.496971Z", "published_at": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.584058Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15026, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-04T00:13:54.496971Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-04T16:18:16.511022Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-04T16:18:16.511022Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the U.S. CDC, since December 2021 there have been [less than 10](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm) reported human cases of H5N1 globally. \n\nA January 30, 2023 [technical risk assessment ](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-risk-to-human-health/technical-risk-assessment-as-of-30-january-2023-for-avian-influenza-human-health-influenza-a-h5n1-2344b) by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) assigns H5N1 a \"level 3\" risk level, which is when there is [\"Evidence of viral genomic changes that provide an advantage for mammalian infection.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1). They note \"The apparent transmission between mink is of significant concern but there is no clear evidence that this has continued in mammalian species since the initial outbreak ... At present, there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health, however this is a low confidence assessment.\" \n\n A \"level 5\" risk level by UKHSA would indicate \"indicate [\"Any human-to-human transmission.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1).", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve on the basis of before January 1, 2024 UK HSA assigns a \"level 5\" risk to H5N1 to indicate human-to-human transmission", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15026, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056204.776399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056204.776399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.032948358788097314 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.542268812941211, 4.861185200421174, 0.0, 0.24399651039726383, 0.5258068491791832, 0.34354283102650235, 0.13947194976535426, 0.0, 0.1600871304430692, 0.4146758411259209, 0.27216951473296785, 0.4662076522093029, 0.08158519982968242, 0.2747420202174948, 0.029437746863261626, 0.24907156417597523, 0.036705271864895465, 0.2568542678166153, 0.0, 0.0052739218686467665, 0.18253707354958468, 0.0, 0.06984831420205134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05857020126457533, 0.010594891982676208, 0.0003407387505689599, 0.0004090313772021209, 0.0, 0.2061680031258101, 0.0, 0.1769118926697472, 0.0, 0.0076927038422426675, 0.0035880521054971015, 0.0, 0.07206795304728328, 0.0075547168217016515, 0.0026327402556635855, 0.026133068960151842, 0.0008926692498609794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028001816834561364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.944237270650903e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023635982998960903, 0.0021164611419844112, 0.0010194536566111888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0213262658041598, 6.571746667824727e-05, 0.0032432922868876357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028128624743290406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018898706919780247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.164150308595673, "coverage": 0.9997883359003624, "baseline_score": 74.87934507953109, "spot_peer_score": -1.9740953092353148, "peer_archived_score": 20.164150308595673, "baseline_archived_score": 74.87934507953109, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.9740953092353148 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056204.807368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056204.807368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 477, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the U.S. CDC, since December 2021 there have been [less than 10](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm) reported human cases of H5N1 globally. \n\nA January 30, 2023 [technical risk assessment ](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-risk-to-human-health/technical-risk-assessment-as-of-30-january-2023-for-avian-influenza-human-health-influenza-a-h5n1-2344b) by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) assigns H5N1 a \"level 3\" risk level, which is when there is [\"Evidence of viral genomic changes that provide an advantage for mammalian infection.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1). They note \"The apparent transmission between mink is of significant concern but there is no clear evidence that this has continued in mammalian species since the initial outbreak ... At present, there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health, however this is a low confidence assessment.\" \n\n A \"level 5\" risk level by UKHSA would indicate \"indicate [\"Any human-to-human transmission.\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1)." }, { "id": 15025, "title": "Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?", "short_title": "WHO PHEIC Declaration On H5N1", "url_title": "WHO PHEIC Declaration On H5N1", "slug": "who-pheic-declaration-on-h5n1", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T23:58:06.317314Z", "published_at": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.949414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15025, "title": "Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T23:58:06.317314Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-04T15:01:57.514986Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-04T15:01:57.514986Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the U.S. CDC, since December 2021 there have been [less than 10](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm) reported human cases of H5N1 globally. A January 30, 2023 [technical risk assessment ](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-risk-to-human-health/technical-risk-assessment-as-of-30-january-2023-for-avian-influenza-human-health-influenza-a-h5n1-2344b) by the UK Health Security Agency assigns H5N1 a \"level 3\" risk level, which is when there is [\"Evidence of viral genomic changes that provide an advantage for mammalian infection\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1). They note \"The apparent transmission between mink is of significant concern but there is no clear evidence that this has continued in mammalian species since the initial outbreak ... At present, there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health, however this is a low confidence assessment.\" \n\nUnder the [2005 International Health Regulations](https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations#tab=tab_1), WHO has the [power](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30401-1/fulltext) to decide when to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). A PHEIC is an [“extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other countries through international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response.”](https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/about/ihr.html). \n\nSince 2009, WHO has made seven PHEIC declarations, the most recent of which was the July 23, 2022 [PHEIC declaration of mpox](https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/23-07-2022-who-director-general-declares-the-ongoing-monkeypox-outbreak-a-public-health-event-of-international-concern).", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve on the basis of whether, before 1 January, 2024, WHO declares that the spread of H5N1 constitutes a PHEIC.\n\nAlso see [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14278/new-who-global-health-emergency-in-2023/) on whether WHO will declare a PHEIC of any kind in 202", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15025, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703979987.835043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703979987.835043, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.017662290907444304 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.823353920059425, 5.078681883793753, 0.24542481633370936, 0.11553701206081882, 0.16261882574173186, 0.6664354060757708, 0.10396878755059086, 0.15456280409090137, 0.01418688470541952, 0.04730520388316206, 0.0658624519359121, 0.0, 0.0005258417441048667, 0.0, 0.3567111951873559, 0.16202240651916378, 0.029809355870528888, 0.012312665985566155, 0.06822691827659266, 0.0, 0.02115124641300948, 0.1731168032924276, 0.18389761120783424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01085885475966403, 0.00012340980408667956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018674127829225928, 0.00734207452482872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.135803059110207, "coverage": 0.9996507140239964, "baseline_score": 92.04699946804963, "spot_peer_score": 1.761455323969108, "peer_archived_score": 6.135803059110207, "baseline_archived_score": 92.04699946804963, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.761455323969108 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008721.830965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008721.830965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 24, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 379, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has recently been [substantial](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/03/opinion/bird-flu-h5n1-pandemic.html) [concern](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00201-2) that highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A (H5N1) may have the potential to cause a pandemic. \n\nThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [describes](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/zoonotic-influenza/facts/factsheet-h5n1) H5N1 as:\n> highly infectious for a number of bird species, including most species of domestic poultry. Unlike most other avian influenza viruses, this virus has also infected mammals, including cats, pigs and tigers, and has shown to be able to transmit to humans. However, the virus remains poorly adapted to humans, and transmission from birds to humans is a rare event. Since the first detection of zoonotic transmission of HPAI A(H5N1), limited clusters of human cases have occurred but no sustained human-to-human transmission has been observed but showed. \n\nWhile no sustained human-to-human transmission has been seen, there have recently been instances of sustained transmission between other mammals, including [between minks](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001). And there is very extensive ongoing transmission in avian populations — H5N1 has killed [millions](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/23572561/bird-avian-flu-influenza-h5n1-pandemic-eggs) of wild and farmed birds and is behind the recent spike in egg prices in some countries.\n\nAccording to the U.S. CDC, since December 2021 there have been [less than 10](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm) reported human cases of H5N1 globally. A January 30, 2023 [technical risk assessment ](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-risk-to-human-health/technical-risk-assessment-as-of-30-january-2023-for-avian-influenza-human-health-influenza-a-h5n1-2344b) by the UK Health Security Agency assigns H5N1 a \"level 3\" risk level, which is when there is [\"Evidence of viral genomic changes that provide an advantage for mammalian infection\"](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-technical-briefings/investigation-into-the-risk-to-human-health-of-avian-influenza-influenza-a-h5n1-in-england-technical-briefing-1). They note \"The apparent transmission between mink is of significant concern but there is no clear evidence that this has continued in mammalian species since the initial outbreak ... At present, there are no indicators of increasing risk to human health, however this is a low confidence assessment.\" \n\nUnder the [2005 International Health Regulations](https://www.who.int/health-topics/international-health-regulations#tab=tab_1), WHO has the [power](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30401-1/fulltext) to decide when to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). A PHEIC is an [“extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other countries through international spread of disease and potentially requires a coordinated international response.”](https://www.cdc.gov/nndss/about/ihr.html). \n\nSince 2009, WHO has made seven PHEIC declarations, the most recent of which was the July 23, 2022 [PHEIC declaration of mpox](https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/23-07-2022-who-director-general-declares-the-ongoing-monkeypox-outbreak-a-public-health-event-of-international-concern)." }, { "id": 15023, "title": "Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?", "short_title": "Chinese Balloon", "url_title": "Chinese Balloon", "slug": "chinese-balloon", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T22:51:12.740278Z", "published_at": "2023-02-04T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.661869Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-04T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-04T20:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-10T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-04T20:02:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15023, "title": "Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T22:51:12.740278Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-04T09:10:00.476706Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-04T09:10:00.476706Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-10T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-04T20:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-04T20:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-04T20:02:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Friday, February 3rd, a [huge, high-altitude Chinese balloon sailed across the US](https://apnews.com/article/politics-antony-blinken-china-314302278a5f05bdc2df146ed5b35ec6). \n\nUS officials alleged the balloon was a spy balloon, with a senior US defense official saying the [military readied F-22 fighters to destroy it](https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3287204/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing-on-high-altitude-surveillan/). Ultimately, the Pentagon advised President Biden [not to shoot the balloon down](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/02/politics/us-tracking-china-spy-balloon/index.html). \n\nChina acknowledged ownership of the balloon, but said it was [a civilian device \"used for scientific research such as meteorology](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chinese-spy-balloon-montana-flight-tracking/).\"\n\nIn response, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken [postponed a scheduled trip to Beijing](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3843240-why-the-discovery-of-a-chinese-balloon-in-us-skies-is-such-a-big-deal/). Many Republican leaders [called for the US government to shoot the balloon down](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3842482-gop-lashes-out-at-biden-pentagon-as-chinese-balloon-hovers-over-us/). United Nations officials called on the US and China [\"to do whatever they can to lower tensions.\"](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/suspected-chinese-balloon-us/h_5c2f8151342068431cbbbba39e903f0c)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Chinese balloon has been shot down, destroyed, or otherwise grounded (including hitting the surface of a body of water) before 11:59 pm EST on February 10th, 2023 according to credible media reports or official government statements publicly available at or before 2pm EST on February 12th, 2023.\n\nOtherwise, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* **Yes** resolution requires only affirmative reporting that the balloon is no longer flying. It can be downed by either natural or artificial means.\n\n* If the balloon is grounded and then starts flying again, the question will resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 15023, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675543965.818163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675543965.818163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9170948138159432 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1475226729454986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05855889144026411, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28626757265783176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.216998672059816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.05190235437913919, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553, 0.0, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4724030184404935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5407300041287509, 7.271782851554532 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.6580765379069172, "coverage": 0.10643144029503065, "baseline_score": -2.65088116783231, "spot_peer_score": -2.7520183660636066, "peer_archived_score": 0.6580765379069172, "baseline_archived_score": -2.65088116783231, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.7520183660636066 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675540890.114636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675540890.114636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4032102452590358, 0.5967897547409642 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Friday, February 3rd, a [huge, high-altitude Chinese balloon sailed across the US](https://apnews.com/article/politics-antony-blinken-china-314302278a5f05bdc2df146ed5b35ec6). \n\nUS officials alleged the balloon was a spy balloon, with a senior US defense official saying the [military readied F-22 fighters to destroy it](https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3287204/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing-on-high-altitude-surveillan/). Ultimately, the Pentagon advised President Biden [not to shoot the balloon down](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/02/politics/us-tracking-china-spy-balloon/index.html). \n\nChina acknowledged ownership of the balloon, but said it was [a civilian device \"used for scientific research such as meteorology](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chinese-spy-balloon-montana-flight-tracking/).\"\n\nIn response, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken [postponed a scheduled trip to Beijing](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3843240-why-the-discovery-of-a-chinese-balloon-in-us-skies-is-such-a-big-deal/). Many Republican leaders [called for the US government to shoot the balloon down](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3842482-gop-lashes-out-at-biden-pentagon-as-chinese-balloon-hovers-over-us/). United Nations officials called on the US and China [\"to do whatever they can to lower tensions.\"](https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/suspected-chinese-balloon-us/h_5c2f8151342068431cbbbba39e903f0c)" }, { "id": 15015, "title": "Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?", "short_title": "H3 Launch Vehicle with ALOS-3 Maiden Launch", "url_title": "H3 Launch Vehicle with ALOS-3 Maiden Launch", "slug": "h3-launch-vehicle-with-alos-3-maiden-launch", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T17:06:00.841555Z", "published_at": "2023-02-03T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.546969Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-03T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-13T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-13T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-03T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15015, "title": "Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T17:06:00.841555Z", "open_time": "2023-02-03T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-03T22:04:13.573788Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-03T22:04:13.573788Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-13T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-13T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The original [Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Land_Observation_Satellite) also known as Daichi, was launched in 2006 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Its primary mission was to monitor and observe the Earth's environment, and its secondary mission was to provide data for disaster management and mitigation. 23 years later, JAXA is preparing to launch [ALOS-3](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/alos3/), the latest generation satellite in this family.\n\nA December 23rd [press release](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2022/12/20221223-1_e.html) from JAXA announced an initial launch date of February 12, 2023 for ALOS-3.\n\nA January 26th [press release](https://www.jaxa.jp/press/2023/01/20230126-1_j.html) moved the launch date to February 13, 2023 between 10:37:55 and 10:44:15am (JST).\n\nALOS-3 will [launch](https://fanfun.jaxa.jp/countdown/h3-alos3/countdown_project.html) aboard the [H3 Launch Vehicle](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/rockets/h3/), \"Japan's new flagship rocket aiming at achieving high flexibility, high reliability, and high cost performance.\"\n\nThe H3 Launch Vehicle was set to have its maiden flight in 2020, but was delayed due to a [technical problem with the first stage engine](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2020/09/20200911-2_e.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as positive if the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 successfully launches before or within 12 hours of its announced launch window and successfully delivers ALOS-3 to begin its mission.\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*", "fine_print": "- Admins will use [this source](https://www.spacelaunchschedule.com/launch/h3-22-alos-3-maiden-flight/) to determine if the launch was a \"Success\". \n- If the Launch Status does not equal \"Success\" *or* the launch is delayed by more than 12 hours, this question will resolve negatively.", "post_id": 15015, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676033731.037655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676033731.037655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.08985117437874138 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3894645223483608, 3.003218395915845, 0.7535956555594016, 2.7498826372369294, 0.027172461172235558, 1.650708332981106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23072242730151374, 0.5261627062792135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6859677313757875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020354001336032917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012363935325084376, 0.0, 0.12098568606878847, 0.0, 0.5805717644653722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2515406540753948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1049492512132725, 0.4768664955511676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10909927757134413, 0.0, 0.02358838295555427, 0.031134300295554664, 0.0, 0.01744285986675472, 0.004173285167582051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04559318956273326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008551805847127919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08934312118698887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01040622348426393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.681398741539738, "coverage": 0.9996290113279029, "baseline_score": 16.416207336672834, "spot_peer_score": 32.51051438370536, "peer_archived_score": 19.681398741539738, "baseline_archived_score": 16.416207336672834, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.51051438370536 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676033731.058357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676033731.058357, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9861087457221831, 0.013891254277816865 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The original [Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Land_Observation_Satellite) also known as Daichi, was launched in 2006 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Its primary mission was to monitor and observe the Earth's environment, and its secondary mission was to provide data for disaster management and mitigation. 23 years later, JAXA is preparing to launch [ALOS-3](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/alos3/), the latest generation satellite in this family.\n\nA December 23rd [press release](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2022/12/20221223-1_e.html) from JAXA announced an initial launch date of February 12, 2023 for ALOS-3.\n\nA January 26th [press release](https://www.jaxa.jp/press/2023/01/20230126-1_j.html) moved the launch date to February 13, 2023 between 10:37:55 and 10:44:15am (JST).\n\nALOS-3 will [launch](https://fanfun.jaxa.jp/countdown/h3-alos3/countdown_project.html) aboard the [H3 Launch Vehicle](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/rockets/h3/), \"Japan's new flagship rocket aiming at achieving high flexibility, high reliability, and high cost performance.\"\n\nThe H3 Launch Vehicle was set to have its maiden flight in 2020, but was delayed due to a [technical problem with the first stage engine](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2020/09/20200911-2_e.html)." }, { "id": 15014, "title": "Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?", "short_title": "US House Speaker McCarthy 2023 Taiwan Visit", "url_title": "US House Speaker McCarthy 2023 Taiwan Visit", "slug": "us-house-speaker-mccarthy-2023-taiwan-visit", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T16:38:24.634051Z", "published_at": "2023-02-09T09:49:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.724554Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-09T09:49:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-09T09:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15014, "title": "Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T16:38:24.634051Z", "open_time": "2023-02-09T09:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-11T09:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-11T09:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[In August 2022, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_visit_by_Nancy_Pelosi_to_Taiwan). Due to the fraught relations between the US and China regarding Taiwan, the visit attracted considerable media attention and was followed by large-scale Chinese military exercises. [A Metaculus question about whether she'd visit](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11975/pelosi-visits-taiwan-in-2022/) attracted 540 predictions from 167 forecasters.\n\nOn January 23, 2023, [reports surfaced](https://punchbowl.news/archive/12323-punchbowl-news-am/) that the Pentagon had begun planning a trip to Taiwan by Pelosi's replacement as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy. On January 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry [issued a statement opposing such a visit](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3836382-china-urges-mccarthy-not-to-visit-taiwan/).\n\nOn February 1, You Si-kun visited Washington, DC ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-visit-taiwan-speaker-stresses-importance-defending-island-china-2023-02-01/)) You Si-kun is the president of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, a position comparable to McCarthy's.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kevin McCarthy is in Taiwan at any time in 2023 (up until midnight GMT+8, December 31, 2023) according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting the visit or official press release from the Speaker's office. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15014, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703880029.860268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703880029.860268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011681932010491662 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.630467050598668, 3.9157046533439073, 0.2099764973617878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043063380822978115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02273102448084273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0098042150506422, 0.0, 0.025385760387874073, 0.07265466937739974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20572941495370636, 0.02035427510390197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03528413545320671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03296546321979451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021754227014258746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005492769954952124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026929702225732283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013141707011951615 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.235613135405522, "coverage": 0.9997050346516436, "baseline_score": 48.67731003319409, "spot_peer_score": -11.210480887052437, "peer_archived_score": 19.235613135405522, "baseline_archived_score": 48.67731003319409, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.210480887052437 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703922071.931041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703922071.931041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 250, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[In August 2022, US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_visit_by_Nancy_Pelosi_to_Taiwan). Due to the fraught relations between the US and China regarding Taiwan, the visit attracted considerable media attention and was followed by large-scale Chinese military exercises. [A Metaculus question about whether she'd visit](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11975/pelosi-visits-taiwan-in-2022/) attracted 540 predictions from 167 forecasters.\n\nOn January 23, 2023, [reports surfaced](https://punchbowl.news/archive/12323-punchbowl-news-am/) that the Pentagon had begun planning a trip to Taiwan by Pelosi's replacement as Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy. On January 30, the Chinese Foreign Ministry [issued a statement opposing such a visit](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3836382-china-urges-mccarthy-not-to-visit-taiwan/).\n\nOn February 1, You Si-kun visited Washington, DC ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-visit-taiwan-speaker-stresses-importance-defending-island-china-2023-02-01/)) You Si-kun is the president of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, a position comparable to McCarthy's." }, { "id": 15010, "title": "Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?", "short_title": "500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?", "url_title": "500k H5Nx influenza cases before 2025?", "slug": "500k-h5nx-influenza-cases-before-2025", "author_id": 119026, "author_username": "NomNomNom", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T04:07:31.476411Z", "published_at": "2023-02-11T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.686681Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-11T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-25T14:34:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-11T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15863, "name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1", "emoji": "🐦🦠", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15010, "title": "Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T04:07:31.476411Z", "open_time": "2023-02-11T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-13T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-13T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-25T14:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-25T14:36:20.208397Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of writing, there is a large outbreak of H5Nx avian influenza among wild birds from the 2.3.4.4b clade. These are primarily H5N1. H5N6 and H5N8 specimens of this clade have previously been common as well. Infections of mammals have been observed, although most of these infections are not generally thought to [indicate transmission between mammals](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022/2022-hpai-mammals).\n\nIn October 2022, an outbreak of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 occurred in farmed mink in Spain. A January 19 2023 paper indicates the strain had evolved mutations associated with infecting mammalian cells. The strain appeared to have [high transmissibility between mink](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001 ).\n\nThere is also recent evidence of possible transmission [between seals](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/peru-confirms-h5n1-avian-flu-marine-mammals-part-southward-spread).\n\nThis raises concerns of H5Nx strains capable of human-to-human transmission with an R0 above 1, which could cause a pandemic.\n\nRecent zoonotic viruses with respiratory transmission have generally been controlled before reaching 10,000 cases (eg SARS-1 and MERS) or reached uncontrolled worldwide spread with over 500,000 cases (eg Covid-19 and 2009 H1N1 swine flu).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are over 500,000 credible reported cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b influenza in humans globally dated before January 1, 2025.\n\nResolution will be based on credible daily case trackers (as the OurWorldInData case tracker was for Covid-19 in 2021-2022). Because there are currently no established daily case trackers for HPAI, and a large outbreak would alter the availability of case tracking data, the specific case tracker is left to admin choice upon identification of a large outbreak.", "fine_print": "Estimates of total infection count are not acceptable- this question is about confirmed cases.\n\nThe resolution does not depend on the H or N subtype of the virus (although it appears H subtype shifts are uncommon). For the purposes of this question, any virus of the 2.3.4.4b clade (or descendants thereof) will be considered 2.3.4.4b. For the purposes of this question, a crossover strain with at least one mutation inherited directly from 2.3.4.4b will be counted as 2.3.4.4b. Cases which do not descend from this clade will not be counted. In the event of disagreement over the provenance of a strain, the apparent beliefs of the majority of mainstream virologists should be deferred to.\n\nCases before January 2023 will not count towards this total. Cases from January 1 2023 to December 31 2024 will be counted.\n\nIn the event of a large outbreak, almost all human cases of 2.3.4.4b will likely be from a specific initial strain which will receive specific formal and informal names. A small number of independent infections from other 2.3.4.4b strains will likely occur. These infections from other strains will also be counted. If more than one strain of 2.3.4.4b causes large outbreaks, all of these large-outbreak strains will be counted.\n\nDaily case trackers with daily updates based on public data should be preferred. Trackers which clearly include substantial fractions of non-2.3.4.4b cases or which exclude large numbers of highly credible 2.3.4.4b cases should not be preferred. In the event no reasonable example can be found, admins will choose the most accurate and up-to-date data source available.", "post_id": 15010, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735727863.315441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735727863.315441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.003706137700685962 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.060996464287886, 1.033352276674555, 0.09414497439711617, 0.25068596207225224, 0.013613413480582582, 0.03658139362322718, 0.06965404274308387, 0.09159379193049776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04393255368134378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005235060727262043, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0050634840930635725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010381920838562959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.2414025843621, "peer_score": 12.260987195769363, "coverage": 0.9997271538151059, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997271538151059, "spot_peer_score": 12.448814180509393, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "baseline_archived_score": 91.2414025843621, "peer_archived_score": 12.260987195769363, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.448814180509393, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289344.404344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289344.404344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 265, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of writing, there is a large outbreak of H5Nx avian influenza among wild birds from the 2.3.4.4b clade. These are primarily H5N1. H5N6 and H5N8 specimens of this clade have previously been common as well. Infections of mammals have been observed, although most of these infections are not generally thought to [indicate transmission between mammals](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/animal-disease-information/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-2022/2022-hpai-mammals).\n\nIn October 2022, an outbreak of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 occurred in farmed mink in Spain. A January 19 2023 paper indicates the strain had evolved mutations associated with infecting mammalian cells. The strain appeared to have [high transmissibility between mink](https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.3.2300001 ).\n\nThere is also recent evidence of possible transmission [between seals](https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/peru-confirms-h5n1-avian-flu-marine-mammals-part-southward-spread).\n\nThis raises concerns of H5Nx strains capable of human-to-human transmission with an R0 above 1, which could cause a pandemic.\n\nRecent zoonotic viruses with respiratory transmission have generally been controlled before reaching 10,000 cases (eg SARS-1 and MERS) or reached uncontrolled worldwide spread with over 500,000 cases (eg Covid-19 and 2009 H1N1 swine flu)." }, { "id": 15009, "title": "Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "5th-generation fighter jets to Ukraine?", "url_title": "5th-generation fighter jets to Ukraine?", "slug": "5th-generation-fighter-jets-to-ukraine", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-03T01:28:19.975211Z", "published_at": "2023-03-13T20:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.431411Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-03-13T20:08:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:24:00Z", "open_time": "2023-03-13T20:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15009, "title": "Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-03T01:28:19.975211Z", "open_time": "2023-03-13T20:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-14T00:29:37.302097Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-14T00:29:37.302097Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of March 2023, talk has been ongoing in Western countries about [providing Ukraine](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28/pentagon-send-f-16s-ukraine-00080045) with F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. So far, no such jets have been pledged to Ukraine, nor any other Western-made fighter aircraft. Reportedly, Ukraine has also made requests for other fighter jets such as [F-22s and F-35s](https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/08/f-22-f-35-gripen-and-eurofighter-ukraine-air-force-openly-requests-for-western-fighters/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that any country has announced a commitment of at least one F-22 or F-35 fighter jet to Ukraine", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15009, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074260.810607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074260.810607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.009491627214648026 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.714612046156235, 3.100934588112693, 0.06857770342997067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04801409210239034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3138753164782079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22688437022518046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.379832594240651, "coverage": 0.9999955301667298, "baseline_score": 99.05042935093928, "spot_peer_score": 5.468450662060536, "peer_archived_score": 1.379832594240651, "baseline_archived_score": 99.05042935093928, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.468450662060536 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074260.834088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074260.834088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of March 2023, talk has been ongoing in Western countries about [providing Ukraine](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/01/28/pentagon-send-f-16s-ukraine-00080045) with F-15 and F-16 fighter jets. So far, no such jets have been pledged to Ukraine, nor any other Western-made fighter aircraft. Reportedly, Ukraine has also made requests for other fighter jets such as [F-22s and F-35s](https://www.aviacionline.com/2022/08/f-22-f-35-gripen-and-eurofighter-ukraine-air-force-openly-requests-for-western-fighters/)." }, { "id": 15005, "title": "In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?", "short_title": "FIFA Club World Cup Winner", "url_title": "FIFA Club World Cup Winner", "slug": "fifa-club-world-cup-winner", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-02T18:09:23.269019Z", "published_at": "2023-02-03T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.658467Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-03T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-11T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-11T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-11T21:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [FIFA Club World Cup](https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/clubworldcup) is an [international men's association football competition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Club_World_Cup) that brings together the winning teams from each continent's confederation, along with the host nation's league champions.\n\nThe [2022 FIFA Club World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Club_World_Cup) is being played in Morocco from the 1st to the 11th of February, 2023.\n\nThe teams competing this year are:\n\n| Country | Team | Confederation |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Brazil | Flamengo | CONMEBOL |\n| Spain | Real Madrid | UEFA |\n| Saudi Arabia | Al-Hilal | AFC |\n| Morocco | Wydad Casablanca | CAF |\n| United States | Seattle Sounders FC | CONCACAF |\n| New Zealand | Auckland City | OFC |\n| Egypt | Al Ahly | CAF |\n\nThe winner will be named on Saturday, February 11th.\n\nThe [last nine teams to win the cup have all been from Europe](https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2023/2/1/fifa-club-world-cup-morocco-2022-all-you-need-to-know). No team from a continent other than Europe or South America has ever won the Club World Cup.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as \"Yes\" if a team other than Real Madrid, the European representative, wins the 2022 FIFA Club World Cup.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if Real Madrid wins the FIFA Club World Cup, or if for any reason FIFA does not name a winner of the tournament.\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 15005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676137372.042443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676137372.042443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14785381450456225 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2628820412078404, 0.022188915831439535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10772571783139248, 1.1814687883336514, 0.18616056073700932, 0.10608798223857863, 0.11939780529750135, 0.4709786488164604, 4.991684396156452, 0.025194092214829794, 0.8092412224943555, 0.2194278625504006, 0.1711754945605547, 0.006017849633017483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7170020928281433, 0.9696425811169741, 0.1719488443903274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2851069917398736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00926838856481337, 0.0, 1.0078071240442348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01698211627615795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010901356066657217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.3336973790942173, "coverage": 0.9964276912027065, "baseline_score": 66.23214945935486, "spot_peer_score": 2.5727467242087174, "peer_archived_score": 1.3336973790942173, "baseline_archived_score": 66.23214945935486, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.5727467242087174 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676137372.061598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676137372.061598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9440099605746219, 0.05599003942537803 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [FIFA Club World Cup](https://www.fifa.com/tournaments/mens/clubworldcup) is an [international men's association football competition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Club_World_Cup) that brings together the winning teams from each continent's confederation, along with the host nation's league champions.\n\nThe [2022 FIFA Club World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_Club_World_Cup) is being played in Morocco from the 1st to the 11th of February, 2023.\n\nThe teams competing this year are:\n\n| Country | Team | Confederation |\n| --- | --- | --- |\n| Brazil | Flamengo | CONMEBOL |\n| Spain | Real Madrid | UEFA |\n| Saudi Arabia | Al-Hilal | AFC |\n| Morocco | Wydad Casablanca | CAF |\n| United States | Seattle Sounders FC | CONCACAF |\n| New Zealand | Auckland City | OFC |\n| Egypt | Al Ahly | CAF |\n\nThe winner will be named on Saturday, February 11th.\n\nThe [last nine teams to win the cup have all been from Europe](https://www.aljazeera.com/sports/2023/2/1/fifa-club-world-cup-morocco-2022-all-you-need-to-know). No team from a continent other than Europe or South America has ever won the Club World Cup." }, { "id": 15003, "title": "Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?", "short_title": "F-16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine by 2024", "url_title": "F-16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine by 2024", "slug": "f-16-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-by-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-02T14:21:11.768668Z", "published_at": "2023-02-05T16:42:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.379750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-05T16:42:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-20T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-05T16:42:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 175, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 15003, "title": "Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-02-02T14:21:11.768668Z", "open_time": "2023-02-05T16:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-06T17:54:20.263400Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-06T17:54:20.263400Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-20T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian in February 2022, many NATO countries have supplied Ukraine with a variety of military equipment. Overall, [31 countries](https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html) have pledged and/or delivered military aid to Ukraine. This includes a large number of European nations (among them Germany and the United Kingdom) as well as the United States and Japan.\n\nPrior to the invasion, Germany rejected arms deliveries wholesale in an attempt to [de-escalate](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-rejects-arms-deliveries-to-ukraine-but-will-send-field-hospital/a-60523137). However, this decision was reverted as Russia invaded, and countries like the [US](https://www.armytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2022/02/28/amid-fears-of-russian-air-dominance-us-to-send-anti-aircraft-stingers-to-ukraine/) and Germany sent lethal military aid to Ukraine before the end of February. These early shipments included [Stinger anti-aircraft missiles](https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefense.com/what-we-do/land-warfare/precision-weapons/stinger-missile) and a variety of anti-tank weapons, which both represent defensive weapons that were quick to deploy and arguably played a [pivotal role](https://www.businessinsider.com/javelins-stingers-nlaws-help-ukraine-destroy-russian-tanks-aircraft-2022-3?r=US&IR=T) in the successful Ukrainian defensive in the first months of the war. \n\nIn late spring 2022, military aid to Ukraine had expanded to deliveries of Soviet-era tanks by [Poland](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-has-delivered-tanks-ukraine-says-polish-pm-2022-04-25/) and [artillery](https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3037837/100-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/). In summer, Ukraine received high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) from the [United States](=https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3049472/700-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/) which have been described as having been crucial in both [defensive and offensive](https://time.com/6244479/himars-rockets-ukraine-russia/#:~:text=HIMARS%20rockets%20have%20been%20integral,otherwise%20wouldn't%20have%20happened%E2%80%A6) operations.\n\nAs the conflict heads for its 1-year anniversary, Western allies have, for the first time and after long public debate, committed modern NATO main battle tanks to Ukraine, such as the Challenger 2 supplied by the [United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-accelerates-ukraine-support-ahead-of-anniversary-of-putins-war). [Germany](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/bundesregierung-kuendigt-lieferung-von-leopard-2-panzern-an-die-ukraine-an-2160236) also committed to sending Leopard-2 main battle tanks (while also agreeing to the re-export of other such tanks), and the [United States](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3277910/biden-announces-abrams-tanks-to-be-delivered-to-ukraine/) committed Abrams tanks. This represented a further move by Western countries in supplying weapons that would be crucial in [offensive operations]( https://www.ft.com/content/959c4a23-676e-49d7-b25e-409fa85c397e) such as retaking occupied land.\n\nIn late January 2023, shortly after receiving commitments on NATO main battle tanks, Ukrainian officials have [asked for fighter jets, especially F-16s](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/31/politics/ukraine-escalates-public-push-f-16-fighter-jets/index.html). So far, the UK and the US have [ruled out](https://news.sky.com/story/president-biden-rules-out-donating-f-16-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-12799633) sending F-16 fighter jets, but [France has signalled openness]( https://www.ft.com/content/4678ec97-bdff-4dfa-9507-dd6f6cb3dcc4) stating that “by definition, nothing is excluded”. Further, the [Dutch Foreign Minister](https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/885930.html) has declared readiness to consider transferring F-16s. \n\nThere are some [reports](https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/poland-reportedly-delivered-mig-29-fighters-to-ukraine-as-spare-parts) that Poland transferred Soviet-designed MiG-29s (or its spare parts) to Ukraine in early 2022, but these reports are disputed and it is unclear whether and/or how many fighters were delivered.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) shows that at least one NATO country has announced a commitment of at least 1 [F-16](https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/f-16.html) fighter jet to Ukraine. \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if no NATO country officially commits to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before January 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "For this question, all [types](https://www.cybermodeler.com/aircraft/f-16/viperversions.shtml) of F-16 fighter jets are considered equally and will count for resolution if committed.", "post_id": 15003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1694136243.477219, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1694136243.477219, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9720643839266321 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0006213138306661601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1704305526002014e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001531567345510321, 0.009338448323355791, 0.0, 1.4544502932994723e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013844059151015047, 0.0, 0.0, 7.18156553227323e-05, 0.035304591835399315, 0.0, 0.0, 7.625224814091025e-06, 0.00012487251404047457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.6332055744286856e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012150367688436741, 0.0, 3.296885806848777e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.832890140396013e-06, 0.00011106908474844831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022511842858739922, 2.844824854835889e-05, 9.655520104656676e-06, 0.0003828110743325421, 0.07748109864393835, 0.03054914407007375, 0.0, 0.06949106891954274, 0.027708675360726284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019074061327771282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24244366120153266, 0.0, 0.03463018220363182, 0.03187138582804264, 0.0, 0.026702262127374213, 0.06178783663520999, 0.0845560836363458, 0.03883649043329928, 0.0007269809911196391, 0.8800089799874357, 0.00029539577145877306, 0.013690176941856756, 0.013480488374482824, 0.17324348311539653, 0.0788735897365437, 0.0011954080969458455, 0.029770954197468755, 0.393998148135018, 0.036336864432393624, 1.1161791236023386, 1.0475881289082922, 1.4235996394463, 1.2506180272348808, 18.818540429291183 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.717191799723814, "coverage": 0.5959604954592045, "baseline_score": 38.75989933025389, "spot_peer_score": -17.117182384698324, "peer_archived_score": 13.717191799723814, "baseline_archived_score": 38.75989933025389, "spot_peer_archived_score": -17.117182384698324 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692480046.148141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692480046.148141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.13489544594943814, 0.8651045540505619 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 520, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the invasion of Ukraine by Russian in February 2022, many NATO countries have supplied Ukraine with a variety of military equipment. Overall, [31 countries](https://www.forumarmstrade.org/ukrainearms.html) have pledged and/or delivered military aid to Ukraine. This includes a large number of European nations (among them Germany and the United Kingdom) as well as the United States and Japan.\n\nPrior to the invasion, Germany rejected arms deliveries wholesale in an attempt to [de-escalate](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-rejects-arms-deliveries-to-ukraine-but-will-send-field-hospital/a-60523137). However, this decision was reverted as Russia invaded, and countries like the [US](https://www.armytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2022/02/28/amid-fears-of-russian-air-dominance-us-to-send-anti-aircraft-stingers-to-ukraine/) and Germany sent lethal military aid to Ukraine before the end of February. These early shipments included [Stinger anti-aircraft missiles](https://www.raytheonmissilesanddefense.com/what-we-do/land-warfare/precision-weapons/stinger-missile) and a variety of anti-tank weapons, which both represent defensive weapons that were quick to deploy and arguably played a [pivotal role](https://www.businessinsider.com/javelins-stingers-nlaws-help-ukraine-destroy-russian-tanks-aircraft-2022-3?r=US&IR=T) in the successful Ukrainian defensive in the first months of the war. \n\nIn late spring 2022, military aid to Ukraine had expanded to deliveries of Soviet-era tanks by [Poland](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-has-delivered-tanks-ukraine-says-polish-pm-2022-04-25/) and [artillery](https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3037837/100-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/). In summer, Ukraine received high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) from the [United States](=https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3049472/700-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/) which have been described as having been crucial in both [defensive and offensive](https://time.com/6244479/himars-rockets-ukraine-russia/#:~:text=HIMARS%20rockets%20have%20been%20integral,otherwise%20wouldn't%20have%20happened%E2%80%A6) operations.\n\nAs the conflict heads for its 1-year anniversary, Western allies have, for the first time and after long public debate, committed modern NATO main battle tanks to Ukraine, such as the Challenger 2 supplied by the [United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-accelerates-ukraine-support-ahead-of-anniversary-of-putins-war). [Germany](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/bundesregierung-kuendigt-lieferung-von-leopard-2-panzern-an-die-ukraine-an-2160236) also committed to sending Leopard-2 main battle tanks (while also agreeing to the re-export of other such tanks), and the [United States](https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3277910/biden-announces-abrams-tanks-to-be-delivered-to-ukraine/) committed Abrams tanks. This represented a further move by Western countries in supplying weapons that would be crucial in [offensive operations]( https://www.ft.com/content/959c4a23-676e-49d7-b25e-409fa85c397e) such as retaking occupied land.\n\nIn late January 2023, shortly after receiving commitments on NATO main battle tanks, Ukrainian officials have [asked for fighter jets, especially F-16s](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/31/politics/ukraine-escalates-public-push-f-16-fighter-jets/index.html). So far, the UK and the US have [ruled out](https://news.sky.com/story/president-biden-rules-out-donating-f-16-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-12799633) sending F-16 fighter jets, but [France has signalled openness]( https://www.ft.com/content/4678ec97-bdff-4dfa-9507-dd6f6cb3dcc4) stating that “by definition, nothing is excluded”. Further, the [Dutch Foreign Minister](https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/885930.html) has declared readiness to consider transferring F-16s. \n\nThere are some [reports](https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/poland-reportedly-delivered-mig-29-fighters-to-ukraine-as-spare-parts) that Poland transferred Soviet-designed MiG-29s (or its spare parts) to Ukraine in early 2022, but these reports are disputed and it is unclear whether and/or how many fighters were delivered." } ] }
