Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3420
{ "count": 6371, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3440", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3400", "results": [ { "id": 19192, "title": "Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "MONUSCO DRC Extension By 2024?", "url_title": "MONUSCO DRC Extension By 2024?", "slug": "monusco-drc-extension-by-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-03T20:41:29.685769Z", "published_at": "2023-11-15T20:12:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.479070Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-11-15T20:12:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-11-15T20:12:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19192, "title": "Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-10-03T20:41:29.685769Z", "open_time": "2023-11-15T20:12:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-20T20:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-20T20:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-19T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-19T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 1999, the [United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MONUSCO) (MONUSCO) has been active in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to aid in stabilizing the region during and after the [Second Congo War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War). The original mission was known as the United Nations Organization Mission in Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC) until 2010 when it was replaced by MONUSCO. [According to the UN](https://monusco.unmissions.org/en/about):\n\n>The new mission has been authorized to use all necessary means to carry out its mandate relating, among other things, to the protection of civilians, humanitarian personnel and human rights defenders under imminent threat of physical violence and to support the Government of the DRC in its stabilization and peace consolidation efforts.\n\nMONUSCO has been [planning for a withdrawal](https://press.un.org/en/2020/sc14374.doc.htm) from the DRC, however in September of 2023 DRC President Felix-Antoine Tshisekedi [insisted](https://apnews.com/article/congo-peacekeeping-united-nations-85bbfdfa87553d876800dfbdfd6be9b5) that the start of MONUSCO's \"accelerated retreat\" should begin a year sooner, at the end of December 2023. Following Tshisekedi's statement, the UN Security Council \"[expressed its readiness to decide](https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15443.doc.htm), by the end of this year and as a matter of priority, the future of MONUSCO and its gradual, responsible and sustainable withdrawal, as well as realistic and concrete steps to be taken in that regard.\"\n\nThe UN had [extended the MONUSCO mandate for one year](https://press.un.org/en/2022/sc15152.doc.htm) on December 20, 2022, authorizing a troop ceiling [as follows](https://monusco.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/resolution_2666_2022_0.pdf):\n\n>. . . MONUSCO’s authorised troop ceiling will comprise 13,500\nmilitary personnel, 660 military observers and staff officers, 591 police personnel, and 1,410 personnel of formed police units, and *invites* the Secretariat to consider further reduction of MONUSCO’s level of military deployment, in line with the joint strategy on the progressive and phased drawdown of MONUSCO ([S/2020/1041](https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N20/287/47/PDF/N2028747.pdf?OpenElement)).\n\nAn August 2023 Report of the Secretary-General](https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/options-adapting-configuration-monusco-and-future-united-nations-configuration-country-beyond-current-mandate-mission-report-secretary-general-s2023574-enarruzh) described options for the future of the mission and included the following paragraph:\n\n>As a first step towards the Mission’s full withdrawal, the force would consolidate its presence in the 13 high-risk territories of Ituri, as well as North and South Kivu. This would be accompanied by a rationalization of permanent and temporary bases that would allow the force to reduce its reliance on framework battalions in favour of units that are more fit for purpose in the current context. All units from South Kivu (southern sector) would subsequently be repatriated together with one static framework battalion from North Kivu (central sector) and some specialist units, military observers and staff officers, resulting in a reduction of its current deployed strength from 12,500 to approximately 10,500 military personnel. As the Mission’s focus shifts to North Kivu and Ituri, it would nonetheless retain projection capacity for South Kivu. The generation of heavy artillery and attack helicopters to enable MONUSCO to support FARDC and maintain a credible posture vis-à-vis armed groups, both foreign and Congolese, would remain a priority.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 15, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, MONUSCO's mission has been renewed or extended with a troop ceiling of 11,000 \"military personnel\" or more.", "fine_print": "* Only the troop ceiling for \"military personnel\" will be counted for this question, other personnel such as military observers and staff officers, police personnel, or personnel of formed police units will be immaterial.\n* Actual deployed strength is immaterial to the question, this question only refers to the the authorized troop ceiling on \"military personnel\".\n* If the mandate is not renewed or otherwise extended this question will resolve as **No**.\n* The question will still resolve as **Yes** if the renewal or extension is referred to as something other than a mandate, so long as MONUSCO's mission in the DRC is extended for any period of time with a qualifying troop ceiling.", "post_id": 19192, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703081255.884865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703081255.884865, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.8735840914124011 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.014505757420011789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0221885908364169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02737976958192116, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0, 0.025302524918872856, 0.0, 0.14890382667771362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02872939583514363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04113337300434987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010332993342669456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.03249305809127576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5811026862302572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07059083564021496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8561988567117307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06583685608684153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.431007191772122, 0.0, 0.004923348169013251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.932401629821202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038881009225659245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13778371961094252, 0.0, 0.04606515460131248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19519530604924692, 0.520886485512855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.326554045988642, 1.19659239643217, 0.34331951429497504, 0.0, 6.5210279649229 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.706321231006633, "coverage": 0.7323759213024112, "baseline_score": -64.10394831284319, "spot_peer_score": 6.523028312733383, "peer_archived_score": 18.706321231006633, "baseline_archived_score": -64.10394831284319, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.523028312733383 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1702977077.750041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1702977077.750041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.43357090779330343, 0.5664290922066966 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 392, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 1999, the [United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MONUSCO) (MONUSCO) has been active in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to aid in stabilizing the region during and after the [Second Congo War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Congo_War). The original mission was known as the United Nations Organization Mission in Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC) until 2010 when it was replaced by MONUSCO. [According to the UN](https://monusco.unmissions.org/en/about):\n\n>The new mission has been authorized to use all necessary means to carry out its mandate relating, among other things, to the protection of civilians, humanitarian personnel and human rights defenders under imminent threat of physical violence and to support the Government of the DRC in its stabilization and peace consolidation efforts.\n\nMONUSCO has been [planning for a withdrawal](https://press.un.org/en/2020/sc14374.doc.htm) from the DRC, however in September of 2023 DRC President Felix-Antoine Tshisekedi [insisted](https://apnews.com/article/congo-peacekeeping-united-nations-85bbfdfa87553d876800dfbdfd6be9b5) that the start of MONUSCO's \"accelerated retreat\" should begin a year sooner, at the end of December 2023. Following Tshisekedi's statement, the UN Security Council \"[expressed its readiness to decide](https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15443.doc.htm), by the end of this year and as a matter of priority, the future of MONUSCO and its gradual, responsible and sustainable withdrawal, as well as realistic and concrete steps to be taken in that regard.\"\n\nThe UN had [extended the MONUSCO mandate for one year](https://press.un.org/en/2022/sc15152.doc.htm) on December 20, 2022, authorizing a troop ceiling [as follows](https://monusco.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/resolution_2666_2022_0.pdf):\n\n>. . . MONUSCO’s authorised troop ceiling will comprise 13,500\nmilitary personnel, 660 military observers and staff officers, 591 police personnel, and 1,410 personnel of formed police units, and *invites* the Secretariat to consider further reduction of MONUSCO’s level of military deployment, in line with the joint strategy on the progressive and phased drawdown of MONUSCO ([S/2020/1041](https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N20/287/47/PDF/N2028747.pdf?OpenElement)).\n\nAn August 2023 Report of the Secretary-General](https://reliefweb.int/report/democratic-republic-congo/options-adapting-configuration-monusco-and-future-united-nations-configuration-country-beyond-current-mandate-mission-report-secretary-general-s2023574-enarruzh) described options for the future of the mission and included the following paragraph:\n\n>As a first step towards the Mission’s full withdrawal, the force would consolidate its presence in the 13 high-risk territories of Ituri, as well as North and South Kivu. This would be accompanied by a rationalization of permanent and temporary bases that would allow the force to reduce its reliance on framework battalions in favour of units that are more fit for purpose in the current context. All units from South Kivu (southern sector) would subsequently be repatriated together with one static framework battalion from North Kivu (central sector) and some specialist units, military observers and staff officers, resulting in a reduction of its current deployed strength from 12,500 to approximately 10,500 military personnel. As the Mission’s focus shifts to North Kivu and Ituri, it would nonetheless retain projection capacity for South Kivu. The generation of heavy artillery and attack helicopters to enable MONUSCO to support FARDC and maintain a credible posture vis-à-vis armed groups, both foreign and Congolese, would remain a priority." }, { "id": 19173, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will a vote on the motion to vacate be held before October 4, 2023?", "short_title": "Vote on Motion to Vacate Before October 4?", "url_title": "Vote on Motion to Vacate Before October 4?", "slug": "vote-on-motion-to-vacate-before-october-4", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-10-03T14:53:50.313296Z", "published_at": "2023-10-03T15:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.690673Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-03T15:15:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-03T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-03T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T20:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T20:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-03T15:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19173, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will a vote on the motion to vacate be held before October 4, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-10-03T14:53:50.313296Z", "open_time": "2023-10-03T15:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-03T17:42:34.966360Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-03T17:42:34.966360Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T20:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T20:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-03T20:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-03T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-03T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 2, 2023, Representative Matt Gaetz [filed a motion to vacate the Office of Speaker of the House of Representatives](https://apnews.com/article/kevin-mccarthy-matt-gaetz-speaker-vacate-congress-e7e5ccc6cf79ccbf5b4a7b73b9d5a3ae) in a bid to oust Kevin McCarthy. The resolution requires a simple majority to pass, and upon passing Kevin McCarthy would be removed from his position. Republicans [hold 221 seats in the House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) and Democrats hold 212. Assuming all Democrats vote to remove McCarthy, five Republicans would have to vote in favor of the motion to vacate as well for it to pass. According to reporter Jake Sherman, [Matt Gaetz may have the votes against McCarthy](https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1709209301611409498). Sherman [also reports](https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1709200194967904314) that the vote is currently scheduled for 1 PM ET on October 3, 2023.\n\nAccording to [reporting from CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/03/politics/mccarthy-gaetz-vote-motion-to-vacate/index.html):\n\n>A vote on a resolution to remove the speaker could still be preempted, however, even once it is on track to come to the floor for consideration.\n>\n>For example, when the resolution is called up on the floor, a motion to table – or kill – the resolution could be offered and would be voted on first. That vote would also only require a simple majority to succeed – and if it did succeed then there would not be a vote directly on the resolution to remove the speaker because the resolution would instead be tabled.\n\n*See below for additional background regarding the motion to vacate from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18854/gop-calls-speaker-vote-before-october/)*\n\n---\n\n[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.\n\nThe rules for the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress adopt [those of the 117th Congress](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117/xml/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117.xml) with some amendments. The relevant portion of the rules is Rule IX, the text of which is quoted below. The [amended rules](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/5/text) remove subparagraph (3) of clause 2(a) (shown in bold).\n\n>1\\. Questions of privilege shall be, first, those affecting the rights of the House collectively, its safety, dignity, and the integrity of its proceedings; and second, those affecting the rights, reputation, and conduct of Members, Delegates, or the Resident Commissioner, individually, in their representative capacity only.\n>\n>2\\. (a)(1) A resolution reported as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered from the floor by the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered as privileged under clause 1, section 7, article I of the Constitution, shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn. A resolution offered from the floor by a Member, Delegate, or Resident Commissioner other than the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn only at a time or place, designated by the Speaker, in the legislative schedule within two legislative days after the day on which the proponent announces to the House an intention to offer the resolution and the form of the resolution. Oral announcement of the form of the resolution may be dispensed with by unanimous consent.\n>\n>(2) The time allotted for debate on a resolution offered from the floor as a question of the privileges of the House shall be equally divided between (A) the proponent of the resolution, and (B) the Majority Leader, the Minority Leader, or a designee, as determined by the Speaker.\n>\n>**(3) A resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker shall not be privileged except if offered by direction of a party caucus or conference.**\n>\n>(b) A question of personal privilege shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 4, 2023 (Eastern Time), a vote is held in the US House of Representatives on final passage of the [motion to vacate submitted by Representative Matt Gaetz on October 2, 2023](https://apnews.com/article/kevin-mccarthy-matt-gaetz-speaker-vacate-congress-e7e5ccc6cf79ccbf5b4a7b73b9d5a3ae).", "fine_print": "Procedural votes are immaterial for this question, only a vote on final passage of the resolution qualifies.", "post_id": 19173, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696355839.429423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696355839.429423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.637095314963163 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.642259645785801, "coverage": 0.9566539495882362, "baseline_score": 28.4531584711508, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 5.642259645785801, "baseline_archived_score": 28.4531584711508, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696355839.459709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696355839.459709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6128760214074698, 0.38712397859253017 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 2, 2023, Representative Matt Gaetz [filed a motion to vacate the Office of Speaker of the House of Representatives](https://apnews.com/article/kevin-mccarthy-matt-gaetz-speaker-vacate-congress-e7e5ccc6cf79ccbf5b4a7b73b9d5a3ae) in a bid to oust Kevin McCarthy. The resolution requires a simple majority to pass, and upon passing Kevin McCarthy would be removed from his position. Republicans [hold 221 seats in the House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) and Democrats hold 212. Assuming all Democrats vote to remove McCarthy, five Republicans would have to vote in favor of the motion to vacate as well for it to pass. According to reporter Jake Sherman, [Matt Gaetz may have the votes against McCarthy](https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1709209301611409498). Sherman [also reports](https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1709200194967904314) that the vote is currently scheduled for 1 PM ET on October 3, 2023.\n\nAccording to [reporting from CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/03/politics/mccarthy-gaetz-vote-motion-to-vacate/index.html):\n\n>A vote on a resolution to remove the speaker could still be preempted, however, even once it is on track to come to the floor for consideration.\n>\n>For example, when the resolution is called up on the floor, a motion to table – or kill – the resolution could be offered and would be voted on first. That vote would also only require a simple majority to succeed – and if it did succeed then there would not be a vote directly on the resolution to remove the speaker because the resolution would instead be tabled.\n\n*See below for additional background regarding the motion to vacate from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18854/gop-calls-speaker-vote-before-october/)*\n\n---\n\n[Kevin McCarthy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_McCarthy) was elected Speaker of the US House of Representatives [on January 7, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Speaker_of_the_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election), after [15 ballots](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14379/-ballot-rounds-to-elect-us-house-speaker/), the first time since 1923 an election for Speaker required more than one ballot. The contentious election and [concessions to the House Freedom Caucus](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2023/01/10/mccarthy-paid-a-steep-price-for-his-speakership-now-what/) — including rules that allow any member of the House to [call for a vote](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/speaker-of-the-house-ousted-motion-to-vacate-rcna64902) that would oust the Speaker by simple majority — have weakened his position as Speaker.\n\nThe rules for the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress adopt [those of the 117th Congress](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117/xml/GPO-CLERK-RULE-PAMPHLET-117.xml) with some amendments. The relevant portion of the rules is Rule IX, the text of which is quoted below. The [amended rules](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/5/text) remove subparagraph (3) of clause 2(a) (shown in bold).\n\n>1\\. Questions of privilege shall be, first, those affecting the rights of the House collectively, its safety, dignity, and the integrity of its proceedings; and second, those affecting the rights, reputation, and conduct of Members, Delegates, or the Resident Commissioner, individually, in their representative capacity only.\n>\n>2\\. (a)(1) A resolution reported as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered from the floor by the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House, or offered as privileged under clause 1, section 7, article I of the Constitution, shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn. A resolution offered from the floor by a Member, Delegate, or Resident Commissioner other than the Majority Leader or the Minority Leader as a question of the privileges of the House shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn only at a time or place, designated by the Speaker, in the legislative schedule within two legislative days after the day on which the proponent announces to the House an intention to offer the resolution and the form of the resolution. Oral announcement of the form of the resolution may be dispensed with by unanimous consent.\n>\n>(2) The time allotted for debate on a resolution offered from the floor as a question of the privileges of the House shall be equally divided between (A) the proponent of the resolution, and (B) the Majority Leader, the Minority Leader, or a designee, as determined by the Speaker.\n>\n>**(3) A resolution causing a vacancy in the Office of Speaker shall not be privileged except if offered by direction of a party caucus or conference.**\n>\n>(b) A question of personal privilege shall have precedence of all other questions except motions to adjourn." }, { "id": 19131, "title": "Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?", "short_title": "LLM passes ARA before 2025?", "url_title": "LLM passes ARA before 2025?", "slug": "llm-passes-ara-before-2025", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100216, "username": "kokotajlod" }, { "id": 119005, "username": 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null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T20:13:51.786145Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2907, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future of AI", "slug": "future-of-ai", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/foa-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-31T00:00:35Z", "close_date": "2048-01-02T00:00:35Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-31T01:10:36.040444Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T01:21:52.869215Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2907, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future of AI", "slug": "future-of-ai", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/foa-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-31T00:00:35Z", "close_date": "2048-01-02T00:00:35Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-31T01:10:36.040444Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T01:21:52.869215Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19131, "title": "Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-09-29T23:01:55.854600Z", "open_time": "2023-10-04T18:29:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-06T13:00:44.124000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-06T13:00:44.124000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-24T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-24T13:52:33.616772Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Alignment Research Center](https://www.alignment.org) (ARC) runs a project called [ARC Evals](https://evals.alignment.org) that evaluates AI systems to see if they pose a catastrophic risk to the human species. [Update: [ARC Evals has spun out from ARC](https://metr.org/blog/2023-12-04-metr-announcement/), and has renamed to METR.] As can be seen from [this report](https://evals.alignment.org/blog/2023-08-01-new-report/), ARC has introduced \"methodology for assessing the capacity of LLM agents to acquire resources, create copies of themselves, and adapt to novel challenges they encounter in the wild.\" Also, as noted in the report, OpenAI's GPT-4 and Anthropic's Claude are not currently capable of passing the ARA evaluation.\n\nThis questions aims to determine the likelihood of an AI model passing the autonomous replication and adaptation—ARA—evaluation before 2025, because this would present a worrying development for the capability of an AI model to inflict major harm on human civilization.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if [METR](https://metr.org/) posts on their website, or if an individual on the METR leadership team states (on the record), that an AI model is potentially capable of autonomous replication and adaptation (ARA) or could pass the ARA threshold based on an ARA evaluation that occurred before 2025.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** otherwise. The question also retroactively resolves as Yes (i.e., resolution is changed from No to Yes) if it later comes to light, through a credible report, that the ARA evaluation was passed before 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19131, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671386.634634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671386.634634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.047742473240980965 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.576723412140101, 2.092103758484173, 0.9385151181163047, 0.0, 0.508020419894716, 0.2967488117956446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.645666057759015, 0.691683204825102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46404561502386255, 0.08181124203511007, 0.0, 0.07140076303461346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12063689821987292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10592775239849204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043790895896745105, 0.053483974712060484, 0.0, 0.06398720980132938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022471481657050284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038968642356904164, 0.1698461853777333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.79121027906966, "peer_score": 11.957244147184907, "coverage": 0.9999714717490165, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999714717490165, "spot_peer_score": 31.532761801693827, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "baseline_archived_score": 71.79121027906966, "peer_archived_score": 11.957244147184907, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.532761801693827, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287721.982209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287721.982209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9833438149235063, 0.01665618507649364 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Alignment Research Center](https://www.alignment.org) (ARC) runs a project called [ARC Evals](https://evals.alignment.org) that evaluates AI systems to see if they pose a catastrophic risk to the human species. [Update: [ARC Evals has spun out from ARC](https://metr.org/blog/2023-12-04-metr-announcement/), and has renamed to METR.] As can be seen from [this report](https://evals.alignment.org/blog/2023-08-01-new-report/), ARC has introduced \"methodology for assessing the capacity of LLM agents to acquire resources, create copies of themselves, and adapt to novel challenges they encounter in the wild.\" Also, as noted in the report, OpenAI's GPT-4 and Anthropic's Claude are not currently capable of passing the ARA evaluation.\n\nThis questions aims to determine the likelihood of an AI model passing the autonomous replication and adaptation—ARA—evaluation before 2025, because this would present a worrying development for the capability of an AI model to inflict major harm on human civilization." }, { "id": 19128, "title": "Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Serbia and Kosovo Military Conflict in 2023?", "url_title": "Serbia and Kosovo Military Conflict in 2023?", "slug": "serbia-and-kosovo-military-conflict-in-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-29T22:18:33.164850Z", "published_at": "2023-09-29T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.474399Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-29T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-29T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19128, "title": "Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-09-29T22:18:33.164850Z", "open_time": "2023-09-29T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-30T11:01:18.283660Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-30T11:01:18.283660Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 29, 2023, NATO announced that it was [increasing troop presence in Kosovo](https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-clashes-raid-police-f671bd21560f60bdca72d2daf7ce50ef) after [violence between Serbian insurgents and Kosovan police](https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-policeman-killed-tension-kurti-vucic-51a29a3159646ec020851b3b5a24836f) in Kosovo on September 24, 2023.\n\nAdditionally, John Kirby of the White House National Security Council [stated on September 29](https://www.rferl.org/a/vucic-kosovo-serbia-monastery-attack/32615778.html):\n\n>We are monitoring a large Serbian military deployment along the border that includes unprecedented staging of advanced Serbian artillery, tanks, and mechanized infantry units. We believe that this is a very destabilizing development.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after September 28, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that one or more of the following have occurred:\n\n* At least 100 overtly flagged members of the Serbian military have entered Kosovan territory.\n* At least 100 overtly flagged members of the Kosovan military have entered Serbian territory.\n* Combat between overtly flagged forces of the Serbian and Kosovan militaries has resulted in an estimated 50 or more military deaths within a 30 day period.", "fine_print": "* Where estimates of deaths are provided as a range the median will be used. If sources provide conflicting estimates or if it is unclear if the specified threshold has been met Metaculus may resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 19128, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704051386.820269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704051386.820269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.019077481440107687 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.215914479812277, 4.2928655633572, 1.7132208764994215, 0.36032272521860703, 0.3111879980491845, 0.24259169382571596, 0.0, 0.035887039941209696, 0.000365894509793429, 0.0, 0.15039125904076042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021015052760297217, 0.0006572940643487771, 0.3484275662703006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07137488353073015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11237086036603716, 0.04964668129335581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18057556480703751, 0.0, 0.0027587512837030253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06760120488306931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008323054346231313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024180497307793418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.495883083341984, "coverage": 0.9994513457144746, "baseline_score": 95.73494972108621, "spot_peer_score": 42.35602346009996, "peer_archived_score": 7.495883083341984, "baseline_archived_score": 95.73494972108621, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.35602346009996 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704051386.859173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704051386.859173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 215, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 29, 2023, NATO announced that it was [increasing troop presence in Kosovo](https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-clashes-raid-police-f671bd21560f60bdca72d2daf7ce50ef) after [violence between Serbian insurgents and Kosovan police](https://apnews.com/article/kosovo-serbia-policeman-killed-tension-kurti-vucic-51a29a3159646ec020851b3b5a24836f) in Kosovo on September 24, 2023.\n\nAdditionally, John Kirby of the White House National Security Council [stated on September 29](https://www.rferl.org/a/vucic-kosovo-serbia-monastery-attack/32615778.html):\n\n>We are monitoring a large Serbian military deployment along the border that includes unprecedented staging of advanced Serbian artillery, tanks, and mechanized infantry units. We believe that this is a very destabilizing development." }, { "id": 19110, "title": "Will a major political party leave the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next Indian general election?", "short_title": "I.N.D.I.A. Alliance Unity", "url_title": "I.N.D.I.A. 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In contrast to the BJP-led [NDA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Democratic_Alliance), the alliance lacks a coherent ideological inclination. This has caused friction in the recent past. For instance, the son of the leader of the DMK made a remark calling for the eradication of [Sanatana Dharma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San%C4%81tana_Dharma), which drew flak from several parties within the alliance. Seat sharing is also a significant issue. For instance, legislators from the AAP and the INC in the state of Punjab have shown resistance to contesting elections together. The appeal of alliance with the BJP is also a factor, and has contributed to splits in the [Shiv Sena](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shiv_Sena) and the [Nationalist Congress Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalist_Congress_Party) in the recent past. These are some factors that could mitigate a split within the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next general election. As such, India has had a history of poor coalition unity, as regional parties routinely switch loyalties, often for perceived political gains.\n\nThe next general election is expected to take place [between April and May of 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Indian_general_election).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes, if before the first vote cast for the next Indian general election, at least 75% of contesting [Lok Sabha](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lok_Sabha) candidates from any one of the [Indian National Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_National_Congress), the [Aam Aadmi Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aam_Aadmi_Party), the [Communist Party of India (Marxist)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_India_(Marxist)) the [All India Trinamool Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinamool_Congress), the [Janata Dal (United)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janata_Dal_(United)) the [Samajwadi Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samajwadi_Party) or the [Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dravida_Munnetra_Kazhagam) (who are members of these parties as of 01/10/2023), do not contest under the I.N.D.I.A. alliance. If the I.N.D.I.A. factionalizes into 2 or more constituents, with the largest constituent not having at least 25% of contesting Lok Sabha candidates from each of the above parties, this question will also resolve as Yes.", "fine_print": "The question will also resolve as Yes, if the I.N.D.I.A. alliance ceases to exist before the first vote cast for the next Indian general election. (A name change would not qualify as \"ceasing to exist\") \"Largest\" faction is defined as the faction with the highest number of current [Lok Sabha MPs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_Parliament,_Lok_Sabha) considering themselves to be members of that faction.", "post_id": 19110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710639024.527991, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.365 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710639024.527991, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.365 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6276002599938711 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20308529557836363, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9334619097010166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6449619161727248 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.111411736544248, "coverage": 0.9960110270683205, "baseline_score": 11.187419084586123, "spot_peer_score": 5.6164592486959775, "peer_archived_score": 4.111411736544248, "baseline_archived_score": 11.187419084586123, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.6164592486959775 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711871679.210825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711871679.210825, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.39400616726597937, 0.6059938327340206 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [I.N.D.I.A.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_National_Developmental_Inclusive_Alliance) alliance was formed on 18th July 2023, as a big-tent political alliance to contest the [next Indian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Indian_general_election) against the incumbent [Bharatiya Janata Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bharatiya_Janata_Party) government, led by [Narendra Modi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Narendra_Modi).\n\nThe alliance brings together parties from across the political spectrum, several of whom have been former rivals. In contrast to the BJP-led [NDA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Democratic_Alliance), the alliance lacks a coherent ideological inclination. This has caused friction in the recent past. For instance, the son of the leader of the DMK made a remark calling for the eradication of [Sanatana Dharma](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San%C4%81tana_Dharma), which drew flak from several parties within the alliance. Seat sharing is also a significant issue. For instance, legislators from the AAP and the INC in the state of Punjab have shown resistance to contesting elections together. The appeal of alliance with the BJP is also a factor, and has contributed to splits in the [Shiv Sena](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shiv_Sena) and the [Nationalist Congress Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationalist_Congress_Party) in the recent past. These are some factors that could mitigate a split within the I.N.D.I.A. alliance before the next general election. As such, India has had a history of poor coalition unity, as regional parties routinely switch loyalties, often for perceived political gains.\n\nThe next general election is expected to take place [between April and May of 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Indian_general_election)." }, { "id": 19104, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Tokmak railway control on Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Tokmak railway control on Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "tokmak-railway-control-on-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 122313, "author_username": "jpmos", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-28T22:23:05.761256Z", "published_at": "2023-10-06T22:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.195705Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-06T22:46:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-06T22:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19104, "title": "Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-09-28T22:23:05.761256Z", "open_time": "2023-10-06T22:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-07T07:44:14.318947Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-07T07:44:14.318947Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tokmak is a city in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast in Ukraine. It has a population of nearly 30,000. At the time of writing, it lies about 20km from the frontlines. The general purportedly leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive has said that liberating Tokmak is \"[the minimum goal](https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-biggest-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html)” of the Ukrainian counteroffensive that started in June, 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, on January 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War's map shows the Velikiy Tokmak railway station in Tokmak ([47.234273433498416, 35.71907485774982](https://maps.app.goo.gl/hXQ4a9me5Pa8HwsF6)) as not under either \"assessed Russian advance\" or \"assessed Russian control\". Notably, the railway station is on the southern end of the town. \n\nIf the ISW ceases to publish this information or changes the naming conventions for the assessed territory, then Metaculus will decide according to information provided by ISW or other credible sources.\n\nIf, at the time of resolution, the Velikiy Tokmak railway station no longer stands at its current location or is fully destroyed, then this question will be resolved based on control of the area where the building was located on the 21st of February 2022, the [latest Google Earth image of the station available](https://earth.google.com/web/search/Velikij+Tokmak,+Zaporizhia+Oblast,+Ukraine/@47.23426725,35.71898701,75.01197177a,56.57951574d,35y,-0h,0t,0r/data=CigiJgokCbv42hx1n0dAESVTG6RZnEdAGR4NbapO30FAITn22SZL1kFAOgMKATA) at the time of writing.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19104, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703946649.532009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703946649.532009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008534133775360705 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.220002946582454, 4.864428294884888, 0.05478022508515022, 0.060158124313454735, 0.3449217568301023, 0.13128429578771889, 0.09357585441427954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015265386762091042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06980107047656858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042704721859492256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013964902613327744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001990151609851139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0434223094642874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.323297783855612, "coverage": 0.999745640510374, "baseline_score": 97.32020576547885, "spot_peer_score": -17.20297971083046, "peer_archived_score": 5.323297783855612, "baseline_archived_score": 97.32020576547885, "spot_peer_archived_score": -17.20297971083046 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008328.001223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008328.001223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 185, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tokmak is a city in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast in Ukraine. It has a population of nearly 30,000. At the time of writing, it lies about 20km from the frontlines. The general purportedly leading Ukraine’s counteroffensive has said that liberating Tokmak is \"[the minimum goal](https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-biggest-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html)” of the Ukrainian counteroffensive that started in June, 2023." }, { "id": 19102, "title": "Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025?", "short_title": "Will Gensler be subpoenaed before 2025?", "url_title": "Will Gensler be subpoenaed before 2025?", "slug": "will-gensler-be-subpoenaed-before-2025", "author_id": 151696, "author_username": "foresightbureau", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-28T12:52:52.450632Z", "published_at": "2023-10-11T02:05:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.394991Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-11T02:05:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T21:56:00Z", "open_time": "2023-10-11T02:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19102, "title": "Will Gary Gensler be subpoenaed by Congress before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-09-28T12:52:52.450632Z", "open_time": "2023-10-11T02:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-14T02:05:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-14T02:05:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T21:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T22:21:02.117934Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 27, 2023, the House Financial Services Committee, chaired by Patrick McHenry, conducted an oversight hearing of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), featuring testimony from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. McHenry and the Committee Republicans criticized Gensler for what they perceived as a reckless approach to rulemaking, a disregard for capital formation, a crusade against digital assets, and unresponsiveness to Congressional oversight.\n\nBefore the hearing, Committee Republicans had sent a letter to Gensler, demanding a halt on finalizing or implementing interrelated rulemakings until their cumulative impacts were evaluated. They sought sufficient time for public and market participants to respond and comply with new regulations.\n\nMcHenry expressed frustration over what he saw as Gensler's failure to address concerns raised during his last appearance before the Committee, five months prior. He criticized the SEC’s approach to rulemaking, accusing it of jeopardizing market integrity and putting investors at risk. McHenry called for comprehensive economic analysis of proposed rules and criticized the Commission for not adequately assessing their interplay and cumulative impact.\n\nMcHenry also accused Gensler of failing to prioritize capital formation and criticized his approach to digital assets, which he believed had created confusion and harm. He mentioned bipartisan efforts in Congress to provide clear regulations for digital assets and criticized Gensler’s lack of transparency regarding interactions with FTX and Sam Bankman-Fried.\n\nFurthermore, McHenry expressed dissatisfaction with the SEC’s lack of responsiveness to the Committee’s oversight and document requests. 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bob Menendez](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Menendez), a Democratic U.S. Senator from New Jersey, has had a long-standing political career, serving in the Senate since 2006. Before his tenure in the Senate, Menendez held various other political positions, including serving in the House of Representatives from 1993 to 2006.\n\nOn September 22, 2023, Menendez was federally indicted on bribery charges along with his wife, Nadine Menendez. The [Department of Justice alleges](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/us-senator-robert-menendez-his-wife-and-three-new-jersey-businessmen-charged-bribery) that Menendez and his wife were indicted for accepting bribes from three New Jersey businessmen, Wael Hana, Jose Uribe, and Fred Daibes:\n\n>accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars of bribes from HANA, URIBE, and DAIBES in exchange for MENENDEZ’s agreement to use his official position to protect and enrich them and to benefit the Government of Egypt. Among other things, MENENDEZ agreed and sought to pressure a senior official at the U.S. Department of Agriculture in an effort to protect a business monopoly granted to HANA by Egypt, disrupt a criminal case undertaken by the New Jersey Attorney General’s Office related to associates of URIBE, and disrupt a federal criminal prosecution brought by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Jersey against DAIBES.\n\nA number of Senate Democrats have recently called for Menendez to resign, including a call [on September 26 from Senator Cory Booker](https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/26/politics/menendez-calls-for-resignation-democratic-party-senate/index.html), who holds the other Senate seat from New Jersey.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2023, US Senator Bob Menendez has announced that he will resign from his Senate seat.", "fine_print": "* Menendez need not actually vacate his seat before October 1, 2023, only an announcement that he will resign is required.\n* An announcement that he will not seek reelection does not qualify.\n* The announcement must be unequivocal and not an announcement that he is considering resignation or similar.", "post_id": 19089, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696109027.155257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696109027.155257, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.008234498078157203 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.689752855082, 6.793895341397278, 0.6188278061728456, 0.18213444847981652, 0.05392541496491342, 0.22543139238546672, 0.025294636782463856, 0.13551496468887517, 0.0038503157754529835, 0.01714357388246597, 0.07429391519181892, 0.000591351133574298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007730619348276378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012117839732328766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009788977028033815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001770091099343005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009589364794425218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.191327619045921, "coverage": 0.9974621574254876, "baseline_score": 90.02009600202946, "spot_peer_score": -26.113780024118082, "peer_archived_score": 5.191327619045921, "baseline_archived_score": 90.02009600202946, "spot_peer_archived_score": -26.113780024118082 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696109027.194663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696109027.194663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 233, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bob Menendez](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Menendez), a Democratic U.S. Senator from New Jersey, has had a long-standing political career, serving in the Senate since 2006. Before his tenure in the Senate, Menendez held various other political positions, including serving in the House of Representatives from 1993 to 2006.\n\nOn September 22, 2023, Menendez was federally indicted on bribery charges along with his wife, Nadine Menendez. The [Department of Justice alleges](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/us-senator-robert-menendez-his-wife-and-three-new-jersey-businessmen-charged-bribery) that Menendez and his wife were indicted for accepting bribes from three New Jersey businessmen, Wael Hana, Jose Uribe, and Fred Daibes:\n\n>accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars of bribes from HANA, URIBE, and DAIBES in exchange for MENENDEZ’s agreement to use his official position to protect and enrich them and to benefit the Government of Egypt. Among other things, MENENDEZ agreed and sought to pressure a senior official at the U.S. Department of Agriculture in an effort to protect a business monopoly granted to HANA by Egypt, disrupt a criminal case undertaken by the New Jersey Attorney General’s Office related to associates of URIBE, and disrupt a federal criminal prosecution brought by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Jersey against DAIBES.\n\nA number of Senate Democrats have recently called for Menendez to resign, including a call [on September 26 from Senator Cory Booker](https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/26/politics/menendez-calls-for-resignation-democratic-party-senate/index.html), who holds the other Senate seat from New Jersey." }, { "id": 19080, "title": "Assuming the neuronal input-output FRO is funded by 2025, will a model of the C. elegans nervous system be developed, before 2031, that can predict what every neuron will do when one is stimulated?", "short_title": "Model of C. elegans nervous system?", "url_title": "Model of C. elegans nervous system?", "slug": "model-of-c-elegans-nervous-system", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-26T18:24:47.392148Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.879524Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, 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"actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Measure Complete Neuronal Input-Output Functions](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1uUFtXDLoPct-rIQ6BufF-oM34Ynvapxpo5D8n69yESU/edit#heading=h.za66qtpqyic8).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/fro-measuring-neuronal-functions/):\n\nMeasuring how neurons integrate their inputs and respond to them is key to understanding the impressive and complex behavior of humans and animals. However, a complete measurement of neuronal Input-Output Functions (IOFs) has not been achieved in any animal. Undertaking the complete measurement of IOFs in the model system C. elegans could refine critical methods and discover principles that will generalize across neuroscience.\n\n###Problem Statement\nSystems neuroscience aims to understand the complex interplay of neurons in the brain, which enables the impressive behaviors of animals. A critical component of this understanding is the Input-Output Function (IOF) of neurons, which characterizes how a neuron integrates its inputs and responds to them. However, despite its importance, a complete measurement of IOFs in any animal has not been achieved, creating a significant blind spot in our understanding of brain function. While parts of IOFs have been measured through various experiments, these efforts only control a narrow subset of the inputs to any given neuron, providing only a small slice of the true IOF. Furthermore, the output of neurons is a complex nonlinear function of their inputs, adding to the complexity of the problem. To truly understand the computation and function of the brain, we need a detailed functioning of the IOFs, which requires controlling all of the inputs and observing the factors that shape IOFs. Pursuing this in a single animal model would uncover new methods, tools, and scientific principles that could catalyze large-scale innovation across neuroscience.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe project aims to unlock a deeper understanding of how neurons in the brain process information through the complete mapping of neuronal IOFs using the model organism C. elegans. This comprehensive mapping is a vital step in understanding how the brain’s neurons receive, integrate, and respond to signals. The project will use a combination of advanced techniques including optogenetics, modern microscopy, and microfluidics to control and observe the nervous system of the worms, and will develop models to predict how neurons respond based on their inputs. The team will also explore how different factors, such as chemicals, drugs, and non-neural cells influence these responses. To ensure maximal benefit to the field and the scientific community, all data and findings will be shared openly and resources will be allocated to promoting collaboration with outside experts on experimental design, technology development, and computational and theoretical analysis.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach because it requires a level of coordinated development and engineering that is too big for a single academic lab, too complex for a loose multi-lab collaboration, and not directly profitable enough for a venture-backed startup or industrial R&D project. The project also aims to create a suite of public goods through its commitment to open science, with plans to share data and code as they are developed. More broadly, the work lends itself well to the development of a new set of tools and methodologies rather than the products or papers incentivized by traditional research models.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nThis project aims to revolutionize neuroscience by providing the first complete measurement of neuronal Input-Output Functions (IOFs) in the model organism C. elegans. Identifying causal interactions between neurons will provide unprecedented insight into brain function, and the methods developed in the process pave the way for understanding more complex nervous systems.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 2: Develop a model of the C. elegans nervous system that can predict what every neuron will do when stimulating one neuron with R2 > 0.8**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [measure complete neuronal input-output functions](https://fas.org/publication/fro-measuring-neuronal-functions/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19080, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934777.786157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934777.786157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.31453691698978975 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.521190780427658, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5802467448602566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.886191225303484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2050255100452323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008492.285921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008492.285921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8572114773803501, 0.1427885226196499 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Measure Complete Neuronal Input-Output Functions](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1uUFtXDLoPct-rIQ6BufF-oM34Ynvapxpo5D8n69yESU/edit#heading=h.za66qtpqyic8).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/fro-measuring-neuronal-functions/):\n\nMeasuring how neurons integrate their inputs and respond to them is key to understanding the impressive and complex behavior of humans and animals. However, a complete measurement of neuronal Input-Output Functions (IOFs) has not been achieved in any animal. Undertaking the complete measurement of IOFs in the model system C. elegans could refine critical methods and discover principles that will generalize across neuroscience.\n\n###Problem Statement\nSystems neuroscience aims to understand the complex interplay of neurons in the brain, which enables the impressive behaviors of animals. A critical component of this understanding is the Input-Output Function (IOF) of neurons, which characterizes how a neuron integrates its inputs and responds to them. However, despite its importance, a complete measurement of IOFs in any animal has not been achieved, creating a significant blind spot in our understanding of brain function. While parts of IOFs have been measured through various experiments, these efforts only control a narrow subset of the inputs to any given neuron, providing only a small slice of the true IOF. Furthermore, the output of neurons is a complex nonlinear function of their inputs, adding to the complexity of the problem. To truly understand the computation and function of the brain, we need a detailed functioning of the IOFs, which requires controlling all of the inputs and observing the factors that shape IOFs. Pursuing this in a single animal model would uncover new methods, tools, and scientific principles that could catalyze large-scale innovation across neuroscience.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe project aims to unlock a deeper understanding of how neurons in the brain process information through the complete mapping of neuronal IOFs using the model organism C. elegans. This comprehensive mapping is a vital step in understanding how the brain’s neurons receive, integrate, and respond to signals. The project will use a combination of advanced techniques including optogenetics, modern microscopy, and microfluidics to control and observe the nervous system of the worms, and will develop models to predict how neurons respond based on their inputs. The team will also explore how different factors, such as chemicals, drugs, and non-neural cells influence these responses. To ensure maximal benefit to the field and the scientific community, all data and findings will be shared openly and resources will be allocated to promoting collaboration with outside experts on experimental design, technology development, and computational and theoretical analysis.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach because it requires a level of coordinated development and engineering that is too big for a single academic lab, too complex for a loose multi-lab collaboration, and not directly profitable enough for a venture-backed startup or industrial R&D project. The project also aims to create a suite of public goods through its commitment to open science, with plans to share data and code as they are developed. More broadly, the work lends itself well to the development of a new set of tools and methodologies rather than the products or papers incentivized by traditional research models.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nThis project aims to revolutionize neuroscience by providing the first complete measurement of neuronal Input-Output Functions (IOFs) in the model organism C. elegans. Identifying causal interactions between neurons will provide unprecedented insight into brain function, and the methods developed in the process pave the way for understanding more complex nervous systems." }, { "id": 19079, "title": "Assuming the neuronal input-output FRO is funded by 2025, will a tool be developed, before 2031, that can perturb neurons in C. elegans and record from all neurons simultaneously?", "short_title": "Tool for C. elegans neurons?", "url_title": "Tool for C. elegans neurons?", "slug": "tool-for-c-elegans-neurons", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-26T18:18:43.749761Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.483773Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2645, "type": "question_series", "name": "Complete Map of Neural Input-Output Functions", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/neurons.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T20:00:50Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:14:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2645, "type": "question_series", "name": "Complete Map of Neural Input-Output Functions", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/neurons.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T20:00:50Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:14:50Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 2477, "type": "tournament", "name": "FRO-casting", "slug": "fro-casting", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T14:30:00Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:00:48Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-14T14:47:10.071355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19079, "title": "Assuming the neuronal input-output FRO is funded by 2025, will a tool be developed, before 2031, that can perturb neurons in C. elegans and record from all neurons simultaneously?", "created_at": "2023-09-26T18:18:43.749761Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Measure Complete Neuronal Input-Output Functions](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1uUFtXDLoPct-rIQ6BufF-oM34Ynvapxpo5D8n69yESU/edit#heading=h.za66qtpqyic8).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/fro-measuring-neuronal-functions/):\n\nMeasuring how neurons integrate their inputs and respond to them is key to understanding the impressive and complex behavior of humans and animals. However, a complete measurement of neuronal Input-Output Functions (IOFs) has not been achieved in any animal. Undertaking the complete measurement of IOFs in the model system C. elegans could refine critical methods and discover principles that will generalize across neuroscience.\n\n###Problem Statement\nSystems neuroscience aims to understand the complex interplay of neurons in the brain, which enables the impressive behaviors of animals. A critical component of this understanding is the Input-Output Function (IOF) of neurons, which characterizes how a neuron integrates its inputs and responds to them. However, despite its importance, a complete measurement of IOFs in any animal has not been achieved, creating a significant blind spot in our understanding of brain function. While parts of IOFs have been measured through various experiments, these efforts only control a narrow subset of the inputs to any given neuron, providing only a small slice of the true IOF. Furthermore, the output of neurons is a complex nonlinear function of their inputs, adding to the complexity of the problem. To truly understand the computation and function of the brain, we need a detailed functioning of the IOFs, which requires controlling all of the inputs and observing the factors that shape IOFs. Pursuing this in a single animal model would uncover new methods, tools, and scientific principles that could catalyze large-scale innovation across neuroscience.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe project aims to unlock a deeper understanding of how neurons in the brain process information through the complete mapping of neuronal IOFs using the model organism C. elegans. This comprehensive mapping is a vital step in understanding how the brain’s neurons receive, integrate, and respond to signals. The project will use a combination of advanced techniques including optogenetics, modern microscopy, and microfluidics to control and observe the nervous system of the worms, and will develop models to predict how neurons respond based on their inputs. The team will also explore how different factors, such as chemicals, drugs, and non-neural cells influence these responses. To ensure maximal benefit to the field and the scientific community, all data and findings will be shared openly and resources will be allocated to promoting collaboration with outside experts on experimental design, technology development, and computational and theoretical analysis.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach because it requires a level of coordinated development and engineering that is too big for a single academic lab, too complex for a loose multi-lab collaboration, and not directly profitable enough for a venture-backed startup or industrial R&D project. The project also aims to create a suite of public goods through its commitment to open science, with plans to share data and code as they are developed. More broadly, the work lends itself well to the development of a new set of tools and methodologies rather than the products or papers incentivized by traditional research models.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nThis project aims to revolutionize neuroscience by providing the first complete measurement of neuronal Input-Output Functions (IOFs) in the model organism C. elegans. Identifying causal interactions between neurons will provide unprecedented insight into brain function, and the methods developed in the process pave the way for understanding more complex nervous systems.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 1: Develop a tool that is able to perturb neurons in C. elegans and record from all neurons simultaneously, automated w/ microfluidics**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [measure complete neuronal input-output functions](https://fas.org/publication/fro-measuring-neuronal-functions/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19079, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934772.870336, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934772.870336, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8074095192723038 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0645902549052866, 0.0, 1.4339442662861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.6422742015709613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008330.386708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008330.386708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21949820742064108, 0.7805017925793589 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Measure Complete Neuronal Input-Output Functions](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1uUFtXDLoPct-rIQ6BufF-oM34Ynvapxpo5D8n69yESU/edit#heading=h.za66qtpqyic8).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/fro-measuring-neuronal-functions/):\n\nMeasuring how neurons integrate their inputs and respond to them is key to understanding the impressive and complex behavior of humans and animals. However, a complete measurement of neuronal Input-Output Functions (IOFs) has not been achieved in any animal. Undertaking the complete measurement of IOFs in the model system C. elegans could refine critical methods and discover principles that will generalize across neuroscience.\n\n###Problem Statement\nSystems neuroscience aims to understand the complex interplay of neurons in the brain, which enables the impressive behaviors of animals. A critical component of this understanding is the Input-Output Function (IOF) of neurons, which characterizes how a neuron integrates its inputs and responds to them. However, despite its importance, a complete measurement of IOFs in any animal has not been achieved, creating a significant blind spot in our understanding of brain function. While parts of IOFs have been measured through various experiments, these efforts only control a narrow subset of the inputs to any given neuron, providing only a small slice of the true IOF. Furthermore, the output of neurons is a complex nonlinear function of their inputs, adding to the complexity of the problem. To truly understand the computation and function of the brain, we need a detailed functioning of the IOFs, which requires controlling all of the inputs and observing the factors that shape IOFs. Pursuing this in a single animal model would uncover new methods, tools, and scientific principles that could catalyze large-scale innovation across neuroscience.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe project aims to unlock a deeper understanding of how neurons in the brain process information through the complete mapping of neuronal IOFs using the model organism C. elegans. This comprehensive mapping is a vital step in understanding how the brain’s neurons receive, integrate, and respond to signals. The project will use a combination of advanced techniques including optogenetics, modern microscopy, and microfluidics to control and observe the nervous system of the worms, and will develop models to predict how neurons respond based on their inputs. The team will also explore how different factors, such as chemicals, drugs, and non-neural cells influence these responses. To ensure maximal benefit to the field and the scientific community, all data and findings will be shared openly and resources will be allocated to promoting collaboration with outside experts on experimental design, technology development, and computational and theoretical analysis.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach because it requires a level of coordinated development and engineering that is too big for a single academic lab, too complex for a loose multi-lab collaboration, and not directly profitable enough for a venture-backed startup or industrial R&D project. The project also aims to create a suite of public goods through its commitment to open science, with plans to share data and code as they are developed. More broadly, the work lends itself well to the development of a new set of tools and methodologies rather than the products or papers incentivized by traditional research models.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nThis project aims to revolutionize neuroscience by providing the first complete measurement of neuronal Input-Output Functions (IOFs) in the model organism C. elegans. Identifying causal interactions between neurons will provide unprecedented insight into brain function, and the methods developed in the process pave the way for understanding more complex nervous systems." }, { "id": 19072, "title": "Assuming the bacteriophage FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of screening mycobacteria phage genes for interactions and publishing promising new interactions be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "Screening of mycobacteria genes?", "url_title": "Screening of mycobacteria genes?", "slug": "screening-of-mycobacteria-genes", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-26T17:57:21.894090Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.458210Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2477, "type": "tournament", "name": "FRO-casting", "slug": "fro-casting", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/FRO.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T14:30:00Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T19:00:48Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-14T14:47:10.071355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2644, "type": "question_series", "name": "Systematic Study of Phage Genes and Functions", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/double_helix_phage_project.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T20:00:21Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T18:43:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2644, "type": "question_series", "name": "Systematic Study of Phage Genes and Functions", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/double_helix_phage_project.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T20:00:21Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T18:43:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19072, "title": "Assuming the bacteriophage FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of screening mycobacteria phage genes for interactions and publishing promising new interactions be achieved before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-09-26T17:57:21.894090Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Systematically Study Bacteriophage Genes and Their Functions](https://docs.google.com/document/d/18gATtTOlUspz_na5AfNLwZDy2NXdkyvob5PNsqHidXs/edit#heading=h.za66qtpqyic8).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-systematically-study-bacteriophage-genes-and-their-functions/):\n\nSystematically sequencing the genome and studying the function of genes from all viruses that infect a set of model bacteria with significant scientific, biotechnological, and human health relevance will enable the development of phage-gene libraries that can in turn enable the faster development of genetic tools for advancing molecular biology.\n\n###Problem Statement\nViruses have been evolving host-modifying factors for billions of years. This wealth of naturally engineered proteins holds the key to unlocking the full potential of the cell. Virus-derived genetic tools have driven most key advances in molecular biology, from recombinant DNA to CRISPR genetic engineering. Although most such transformative discoveries have resulted from the study of bacteriophages (viruses of bacteria), phage research has relied primarily on inferential work rather than systematic approaches to discern the functions of phage genes. With serendipity as the primary engine of discovery, experimental approaches have not kept pace with phage genome sequencing over the past decade. Consequently, the vast majority of phage genetic diversity is still entirely unexplored.\n\n###Project Concept\nWe have built a high throughput screening platform to characterize phage genes and completed a pilot of the entire pipeline, from gene selection through functional screening and mechanistic follow-up (manuscript in preparation and available upon request). Our FRO will scale this platform and use it to chemically synthesize and test all non-redundant phage genes from two clinically relevant families of bacteria (Enterobacteria and Mycobacteria) which collectively host ~40% of all isolated phages, allowing us to test a large swathe of phage genetic diversity in a set of model species. The phage-gene library generated from this process will enable us to pursue the following objectives: 1) discover new molecular tools with revolutionary potential (eg. broadly understanding the principles of protein detection in antiviral immunity could yield a generalizable protein-targeting framework without some of the pitfalls of antibodies), 2) develop therapeutic avenues for antimicrobial resistant infections inspired by natural antiviral defense and counter-defense strategies, 3) build an inventory of phage design principles and engineering methods for therapeutic, industrial, and microbiome-directed applications, and 4) gain a complete understanding of interactions between phage and their hosts.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach because to achieve our scientific goals, we will need to scale our platform ~10,000-fold from 104-5 assays in the pilot to ~108-9 assays at the FRO. Massively parallelizing these assays will involve a highly systematic effort with a tightly coordinated and dedicated team, a substantial initial investment in gene-library synthesis and platform engineering, and long publishing timelines, which are qualities unsuitable for traditional grant funding. For these reasons, an FRO is the ideal (and probably the only viable) structure for this project.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nParadigm shifts in biology have often started with the humble bacteriophage. With 108-9 prospects across the oldest and most diverse host-pathogen interface in the biosphere, our FRO presents abundant opportunities for making impactful discoveries, and will pioneer a new field of functional metaviromics. Moreover, the phage-gene libraries we will create are analogous to small-molecule screening libraries, consisting of 104-105 phage-derived natural products that can be used to find potentiators or suppressors of any cellular stressor of interest. We expect these resources to enable discovery far beyond the scope and timeline of our FRO.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 2: Screen a library of tens of thousands of phage genes for mycobacteria for interactions and publish promising new interactions for the field to study**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [systematically study bacteriophage genes and their functions](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-systematically-study-bacteriophage-genes-and-their-functions/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19072, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934767.281122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934767.281122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5719690125746568 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008197.938663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008197.938663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.45626040772752585, 0.5437395922724741 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Systematically Study Bacteriophage Genes and Their Functions](https://docs.google.com/document/d/18gATtTOlUspz_na5AfNLwZDy2NXdkyvob5PNsqHidXs/edit#heading=h.za66qtpqyic8).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-systematically-study-bacteriophage-genes-and-their-functions/):\n\nSystematically sequencing the genome and studying the function of genes from all viruses that infect a set of model bacteria with significant scientific, biotechnological, and human health relevance will enable the development of phage-gene libraries that can in turn enable the faster development of genetic tools for advancing molecular biology.\n\n###Problem Statement\nViruses have been evolving host-modifying factors for billions of years. This wealth of naturally engineered proteins holds the key to unlocking the full potential of the cell. Virus-derived genetic tools have driven most key advances in molecular biology, from recombinant DNA to CRISPR genetic engineering. Although most such transformative discoveries have resulted from the study of bacteriophages (viruses of bacteria), phage research has relied primarily on inferential work rather than systematic approaches to discern the functions of phage genes. With serendipity as the primary engine of discovery, experimental approaches have not kept pace with phage genome sequencing over the past decade. Consequently, the vast majority of phage genetic diversity is still entirely unexplored.\n\n###Project Concept\nWe have built a high throughput screening platform to characterize phage genes and completed a pilot of the entire pipeline, from gene selection through functional screening and mechanistic follow-up (manuscript in preparation and available upon request). Our FRO will scale this platform and use it to chemically synthesize and test all non-redundant phage genes from two clinically relevant families of bacteria (Enterobacteria and Mycobacteria) which collectively host ~40% of all isolated phages, allowing us to test a large swathe of phage genetic diversity in a set of model species. The phage-gene library generated from this process will enable us to pursue the following objectives: 1) discover new molecular tools with revolutionary potential (eg. broadly understanding the principles of protein detection in antiviral immunity could yield a generalizable protein-targeting framework without some of the pitfalls of antibodies), 2) develop therapeutic avenues for antimicrobial resistant infections inspired by natural antiviral defense and counter-defense strategies, 3) build an inventory of phage design principles and engineering methods for therapeutic, industrial, and microbiome-directed applications, and 4) gain a complete understanding of interactions between phage and their hosts.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach because to achieve our scientific goals, we will need to scale our platform ~10,000-fold from 104-5 assays in the pilot to ~108-9 assays at the FRO. Massively parallelizing these assays will involve a highly systematic effort with a tightly coordinated and dedicated team, a substantial initial investment in gene-library synthesis and platform engineering, and long publishing timelines, which are qualities unsuitable for traditional grant funding. For these reasons, an FRO is the ideal (and probably the only viable) structure for this project.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nParadigm shifts in biology have often started with the humble bacteriophage. With 108-9 prospects across the oldest and most diverse host-pathogen interface in the biosphere, our FRO presents abundant opportunities for making impactful discoveries, and will pioneer a new field of functional metaviromics. Moreover, the phage-gene libraries we will create are analogous to small-molecule screening libraries, consisting of 104-105 phage-derived natural products that can be used to find potentiators or suppressors of any cellular stressor of interest. We expect these resources to enable discovery far beyond the scope and timeline of our FRO." }, { "id": 19071, "title": "Assuming the bacteriophage FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of screening enterobacteria phage genes for interactions and publishing promising new interactions be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "Screening of enterobacteria genes?", "url_title": "Screening of enterobacteria genes?", "slug": "screening-of-enterobacteria-genes", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-26T17:51:41.074022Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.693645Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2477, "type": "tournament", "name": "FRO-casting", "slug": "fro-casting", 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"prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T20:00:21Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T18:43:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19071, "title": "Assuming the bacteriophage FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of screening enterobacteria phage genes for interactions and publishing promising new interactions be achieved before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-09-26T17:51:41.074022Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Systematically Study Bacteriophage Genes and Their Functions](https://docs.google.com/document/d/18gATtTOlUspz_na5AfNLwZDy2NXdkyvob5PNsqHidXs/edit#heading=h.za66qtpqyic8).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-systematically-study-bacteriophage-genes-and-their-functions/):\n\nSystematically sequencing the genome and studying the function of genes from all viruses that infect a set of model bacteria with significant scientific, biotechnological, and human health relevance will enable the development of phage-gene libraries that can in turn enable the faster development of genetic tools for advancing molecular biology.\n\n###Problem Statement\nViruses have been evolving host-modifying factors for billions of years. This wealth of naturally engineered proteins holds the key to unlocking the full potential of the cell. Virus-derived genetic tools have driven most key advances in molecular biology, from recombinant DNA to CRISPR genetic engineering. Although most such transformative discoveries have resulted from the study of bacteriophages (viruses of bacteria), phage research has relied primarily on inferential work rather than systematic approaches to discern the functions of phage genes. With serendipity as the primary engine of discovery, experimental approaches have not kept pace with phage genome sequencing over the past decade. Consequently, the vast majority of phage genetic diversity is still entirely unexplored.\n\n###Project Concept\nWe have built a high throughput screening platform to characterize phage genes and completed a pilot of the entire pipeline, from gene selection through functional screening and mechanistic follow-up (manuscript in preparation and available upon request). Our FRO will scale this platform and use it to chemically synthesize and test all non-redundant phage genes from two clinically relevant families of bacteria (Enterobacteria and Mycobacteria) which collectively host ~40% of all isolated phages, allowing us to test a large swathe of phage genetic diversity in a set of model species. The phage-gene library generated from this process will enable us to pursue the following objectives: 1) discover new molecular tools with revolutionary potential (eg. broadly understanding the principles of protein detection in antiviral immunity could yield a generalizable protein-targeting framework without some of the pitfalls of antibodies), 2) develop therapeutic avenues for antimicrobial resistant infections inspired by natural antiviral defense and counter-defense strategies, 3) build an inventory of phage design principles and engineering methods for therapeutic, industrial, and microbiome-directed applications, and 4) gain a complete understanding of interactions between phage and their hosts.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach because to achieve our scientific goals, we will need to scale our platform ~10,000-fold from 104-5 assays in the pilot to ~108-9 assays at the FRO. Massively parallelizing these assays will involve a highly systematic effort with a tightly coordinated and dedicated team, a substantial initial investment in gene-library synthesis and platform engineering, and long publishing timelines, which are qualities unsuitable for traditional grant funding. For these reasons, an FRO is the ideal (and probably the only viable) structure for this project.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nParadigm shifts in biology have often started with the humble bacteriophage. With 108-9 prospects across the oldest and most diverse host-pathogen interface in the biosphere, our FRO presents abundant opportunities for making impactful discoveries, and will pioneer a new field of functional metaviromics. Moreover, the phage-gene libraries we will create are analogous to small-molecule screening libraries, consisting of 104-105 phage-derived natural products that can be used to find potentiators or suppressors of any cellular stressor of interest. We expect these resources to enable discovery far beyond the scope and timeline of our FRO.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 1: Screen a library of tens of thousands of phage genes for enterobacteria for interactions and publish promising new interactions for the field to study**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [systematically study bacteriophage genes and their functions](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-systematically-study-bacteriophage-genes-and-their-functions/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19071, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934762.459439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934762.459439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7963215567531756 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4555432951155731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008386.051683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008386.051683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19617132110456248, 0.8038286788954375 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Systematically Study Bacteriophage Genes and Their Functions](https://docs.google.com/document/d/18gATtTOlUspz_na5AfNLwZDy2NXdkyvob5PNsqHidXs/edit#heading=h.za66qtpqyic8).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-systematically-study-bacteriophage-genes-and-their-functions/):\n\nSystematically sequencing the genome and studying the function of genes from all viruses that infect a set of model bacteria with significant scientific, biotechnological, and human health relevance will enable the development of phage-gene libraries that can in turn enable the faster development of genetic tools for advancing molecular biology.\n\n###Problem Statement\nViruses have been evolving host-modifying factors for billions of years. This wealth of naturally engineered proteins holds the key to unlocking the full potential of the cell. Virus-derived genetic tools have driven most key advances in molecular biology, from recombinant DNA to CRISPR genetic engineering. Although most such transformative discoveries have resulted from the study of bacteriophages (viruses of bacteria), phage research has relied primarily on inferential work rather than systematic approaches to discern the functions of phage genes. With serendipity as the primary engine of discovery, experimental approaches have not kept pace with phage genome sequencing over the past decade. Consequently, the vast majority of phage genetic diversity is still entirely unexplored.\n\n###Project Concept\nWe have built a high throughput screening platform to characterize phage genes and completed a pilot of the entire pipeline, from gene selection through functional screening and mechanistic follow-up (manuscript in preparation and available upon request). Our FRO will scale this platform and use it to chemically synthesize and test all non-redundant phage genes from two clinically relevant families of bacteria (Enterobacteria and Mycobacteria) which collectively host ~40% of all isolated phages, allowing us to test a large swathe of phage genetic diversity in a set of model species. The phage-gene library generated from this process will enable us to pursue the following objectives: 1) discover new molecular tools with revolutionary potential (eg. broadly understanding the principles of protein detection in antiviral immunity could yield a generalizable protein-targeting framework without some of the pitfalls of antibodies), 2) develop therapeutic avenues for antimicrobial resistant infections inspired by natural antiviral defense and counter-defense strategies, 3) build an inventory of phage design principles and engineering methods for therapeutic, industrial, and microbiome-directed applications, and 4) gain a complete understanding of interactions between phage and their hosts.\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project is suited for a FRO-style approach because to achieve our scientific goals, we will need to scale our platform ~10,000-fold from 104-5 assays in the pilot to ~108-9 assays at the FRO. Massively parallelizing these assays will involve a highly systematic effort with a tightly coordinated and dedicated team, a substantial initial investment in gene-library synthesis and platform engineering, and long publishing timelines, which are qualities unsuitable for traditional grant funding. For these reasons, an FRO is the ideal (and probably the only viable) structure for this project.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nParadigm shifts in biology have often started with the humble bacteriophage. With 108-9 prospects across the oldest and most diverse host-pathogen interface in the biosphere, our FRO presents abundant opportunities for making impactful discoveries, and will pioneer a new field of functional metaviromics. Moreover, the phage-gene libraries we will create are analogous to small-molecule screening libraries, consisting of 104-105 phage-derived natural products that can be used to find potentiators or suppressors of any cellular stressor of interest. We expect these resources to enable discovery far beyond the scope and timeline of our FRO." }, { "id": 19055, "title": "Will Russia purchase an American weapons system before 2050?", "short_title": "Russia buying American weapons", "url_title": "Russia buying American weapons", "slug": "russia-buying-american-weapons", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-25T01:24:13.266331Z", "published_at": "2023-09-27T18:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.368605Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-27T18:44:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-27T18:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19055, "title": "Will Russia purchase an American weapons system before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-09-25T01:24:13.266331Z", "open_time": "2023-09-27T18:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-29T18:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-29T18:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Weapons sales from one country to another are often a useful indicator of positive geopolitical ties between those two nations. The logic behind this is that nations won't export weapons to other countries which visibly seek to compete with them militarily. For example, European NATO states make [extensive purchases](https://www.statista.com/statistics/248552/us-arms-exports-by-country/) of American weapons due to the United States's dominant position in the alliance. Likewise, Russian-allied countries such as Belarus and Kazakhstan [rely heavily](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102702/countries-where-russia-is-a-major-arms-supplier/) on weapons imports from Russia to maintain their armed forces. \n\nIn the context of Russian-American relations, Russia purchasing American weapons systems would indicate the United States' strategic interests aligning more with those of Russia than they currently do, and vice versa. Moreover, it would indicate improvements in geopolitical ties between these two countries. This could occur as a result of changes in the political landscape of either country, external threats posed to both nations, or a number of other things.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2050, credible sources report that the Russian Federation has placed an order for a US-made weapons system *and* that this order has been approved by the [US Department of State](https://www.state.gov/u-s-arms-sales-and-defense-trade/#:~:text=Sales%20are%20approved%20following%20U.S.,support%20being%20offered%20for%20delivery.), or through whatever other legal means necessary to approve American weapons sales to foreign nations present at that time. Only the order will need to placed to resolve this question as Yes; the weapons system need not actually be delivered to Russia. The weapons system must be purchased directly from the United States, not through a intermediary/third country. Credible sources reporting that the United States has approved providing weapons systems to Russia free of charge will also resolve this question as Yes. If this does not occur before the resolution date, the question resolves as **No**.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the following are included in the definition of \"weapons system\":\n\n- Tanks\n- Armored fighting vehicles\n- Towed artillery\n- Self-propelled artillery\n- Rocket artillery\n- Surface-to-air missile systems\n- Military radars\n- Fighter and multi-role aircraft\n- Attack/bomber aircraft\n- Military helicopters\n- Combat drones/UCAVs\n- AWACS\n- Aerial refueling aircraft\n- Other aircraft intended solely for military use\n- Aircraft carriers\n- Naval destroyers\n- Cruisers\n- Frigates\n- Corvettes\n- Submarines\n- Guided missiles/launchers\n- Weapons of mass destruction\n- Any ammunition or components made to be used specifically by an American-produced version of the above\n\nMetaculus moderators may use their discretion to determine if a particular American export to Russia falls into the above categories or otherwise has no practical application outside a military setting, such that it must be considered a weapons system.", "fine_print": "If the United States or Russian Federation cease to exist in their current form prior to the resolution date (as determined by Metaculus moderators), this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 19055, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751696679.959214, "end_time": 1778808214.533334, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751696679.959214, "end_time": 1778808214.533334, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.1557594391000312 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8084600709554961, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8376090765460631, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.5288293908805634, 0.8657736781661247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0537678114739588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289003.512265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289003.512265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9362837878019744, 0.06371621219802555 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Weapons sales from one country to another are often a useful indicator of positive geopolitical ties between those two nations. The logic behind this is that nations won't export weapons to other countries which visibly seek to compete with them militarily. For example, European NATO states make [extensive purchases](https://www.statista.com/statistics/248552/us-arms-exports-by-country/) of American weapons due to the United States's dominant position in the alliance. Likewise, Russian-allied countries such as Belarus and Kazakhstan [rely heavily](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102702/countries-where-russia-is-a-major-arms-supplier/) on weapons imports from Russia to maintain their armed forces. \n\nIn the context of Russian-American relations, Russia purchasing American weapons systems would indicate the United States' strategic interests aligning more with those of Russia than they currently do, and vice versa. Moreover, it would indicate improvements in geopolitical ties between these two countries. This could occur as a result of changes in the political landscape of either country, external threats posed to both nations, or a number of other things." }, { "id": 19038, "title": "By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?", "short_title": "AI: Best Practice in Psychology by 2028", "url_title": "AI: Best Practice in Psychology by 2028", "slug": "ai-best-practice-in-psychology-by-2028", "author_id": 152648, "author_username": "gdlf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-23T18:01:24.115590Z", "published_at": "2023-10-06T19:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T09:26:51.607496Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-06T19:19:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-06T19:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19038, "title": "By December 31st, 2028, will it be considered best practice in clinical psychology to incorporate AI tools in the diagnostic process?", "created_at": "2023-09-23T18:01:24.115590Z", "open_time": "2023-10-06T19:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-08T19:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-08T19:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into clinical psychology is seen as a promising advancement that could revolutionize diagnostic accuracy and efficiency. This question explores whether, by December 31, 2028, the use of AI tools will be recognized as best practice in the field of clinical psychology. The potential for AI to improve healthcare outcomes is a subject of significant interest and research.\n\nRelevant links:\n\n<https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/centaurs-and-cyborgs-on-the-jagged?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2>\n\n<https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37423238/>\n\n<https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37353693/>\n\n<https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10132410/>", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve based on official guidelines or endorsements from authoritative bodies in the field of clinical psychology, such as the American Psychological Association (APA), European Federation of Psychologists Association, (EFPA), Ordem dos Psicólogos Portugueses (OPP), or equivalent organizations globally. If any of these organizations endorse the use of AI tools as best practice for diagnosis by the specified date, the question will resolve as \"Yes.\"", "fine_print": "This question focuses on the potential for AI tools to enhance, rather than replace, human expertise in the diagnostic process within clinical psychology by the specified date.", "post_id": 19038, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763506035.867893, "end_time": 1763529119.269911, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.075 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763506035.867893, "end_time": 1763529119.269911, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.075 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.35196564307777206 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.8507105802698818, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.016744950102155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0059366215221415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9428658940945283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.0, 0.14171303396893792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3429345261700073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2152622159589235, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288703.541557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288703.541557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8301164682746217, 0.1698835317253783 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into clinical psychology is seen as a promising advancement that could revolutionize diagnostic accuracy and efficiency. This question explores whether, by December 31, 2028, the use of AI tools will be recognized as best practice in the field of clinical psychology. The potential for AI to improve healthcare outcomes is a subject of significant interest and research.\n\nRelevant links:\n\n<https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/centaurs-and-cyborgs-on-the-jagged?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2>\n\n<https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37423238/>\n\n<https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37353693/>\n\n<https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10132410/>" }, { "id": 19031, "title": "Assuming the human molecular monitoring FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of developing a 100-analyte device for in situ monitoring be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "100-analyte Device for In-Situ Monitoring?", "url_title": "100-analyte Device for In-Situ Monitoring?", "slug": "100-analyte-device-for-in-situ-monitoring", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-22T22:41:21.501458Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.369595Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Develop a Modular and Scalable Platform for Human Molecular Monitoring](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EJH6XDEOCbgQOTd8SaAHYglfq9h6GqNFlIlOroMaLWo/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\nWearable health electronics are now ubiquitous, but continuous molecular monitoring is only widely available for glucose. Decades of research have expanded continuous monitoring to other molecules, but these techniques are restricted to research labs and remain disconnected from daily human use. We propose a platform to translate and distribute these emerging technologies, enabling the mapping of the time-varying human metabolome and the design of closed-loop devices for personalized health.\n\n###Problem Statement\nHumans are the best model organisms for humans, yet we have few tools to study human biochemistry in situ and in real time. The Human Metabolome Database lists ~20,000 detected compounds, of which only ~3,000 have been quantified. Even fewer of these biomolecules have been studied with time resolution in longitudinal human studies. \n\nCardiovascular, metabolic/endocrine and drug pharmacokinetic phenomena are driven by biomolecules varying on the time scale of seconds to minutes to hours, impacting behavior and well-being on similar time scales. Currently, the only way to measure these molecules is through laboratory testing, which is obtrusive to daily life. Moreover, laboratory testing cannot be conducted at the frequency necessary to capture all of these variations. \n\nIn contrast, wearable monitors are user-friendly and enable continuous measurements at the correct time scale. These monitors require specially engineered biosensors, since there are a limited number of naturally-occurring enzymes that generate continuous, time-varying electrical signals like those used by continuous glucose monitors, which are currently the only commercially available device of this kind. However, most labs that pioneer biosensing strategies do not develop human-compatible devices and vice versa, creating a chasm between these two areas of research and development.\n\n###Project Concept\nThis project aims to achieve minimally invasive continuous monitoring of 100+ analytes in the human body and deliver devices to researchers. This project will develop a medical device testbed that can use the myriad biosensing strategies pursued by academic labs to develop devices for human experiments. Our technical approach combines synthetic ion channels and conformational switches coupled with a CMOS array to assess many analytes in parallel. We already have access to customized fabrication techniques, and the cost and barriers in designing and manufacturing proteins and silicon sensors are trending downwards.\n\nThe project will progress through four interdependent stages:\n\nSurvey and prioritize metabolic, hormone, and immune targets that provide the greatest explanatory power for well-being. Select biosensor and transduction systems reported in the literature to interface with our platform.\nDevelop an integrated circuit functionalized with biosensors for parallel multi-analyte sensing packaged in a wearable form factor. Test devices in humans to validate against conventional blood sample analyses.\nSpecify and share validated devices in bulk to catalyze large-scale human field research.\nCurate a time-varying human metabolome.\n\n<a href=\"https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Screen-Shot-2023-08-31-at-9.18.31-AM.png\">4 stages</a>\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project suits a FRO-style model because the four research stages require tight feedback loops and standardization and the medical device industry is not incentivized to pursue this kind of research. Private companies typically focus on a handful of molecules most relevant to diabetes care, taking advantage of proven biosensors and predictable insurance reimbursement. A stand-alone, non-profit institute is best suited to standardize and derisk experiments on molecular monitoring to catalyze the formation of a consortium of experimenters. Just as the nonprofit AddGene has standardized and democratized access to genetic material, we seek to develop the analog institution for medical devices.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress \nHuman physiology is currently a poorly explored, high-dimensional space, and scientific labs lack the tools to measure human biochemistry over time. The devices developed through this project will first help scientists study specific questions in domains such as disease etiology, human behavior, and drug discovery. Study validity will be enhanced by providing additional molecular time courses which will clarify the relationships between conditions, specific biomarkers, and interventions. Next, these studies will enable the development of a human molecular atlas, similar to the Human Metabolome Database but with time resolution. This database could act as a powerful tool for developing nuanced models of human physiology to uncover previously overlooked phenomena. Finally, similar devices will ultimately become accessible as consumer health products, enabling the next generation of personalized health.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 2: Develop a 100-analyte device for in situ monitoring**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [develop a platform for human molecular monitoring](https://fas.org/publication/fro-scalable-molecular-monitoring/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19031, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934756.886643, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934756.886643, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.14731737925092517 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.29286789626133847, 0.8037019479933394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 1.2690464055783675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008491.32668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008491.32668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9763190498094121, 0.02368095019058792 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Develop a Modular and Scalable Platform for Human Molecular Monitoring](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EJH6XDEOCbgQOTd8SaAHYglfq9h6GqNFlIlOroMaLWo/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\nWearable health electronics are now ubiquitous, but continuous molecular monitoring is only widely available for glucose. Decades of research have expanded continuous monitoring to other molecules, but these techniques are restricted to research labs and remain disconnected from daily human use. We propose a platform to translate and distribute these emerging technologies, enabling the mapping of the time-varying human metabolome and the design of closed-loop devices for personalized health.\n\n###Problem Statement\nHumans are the best model organisms for humans, yet we have few tools to study human biochemistry in situ and in real time. The Human Metabolome Database lists ~20,000 detected compounds, of which only ~3,000 have been quantified. Even fewer of these biomolecules have been studied with time resolution in longitudinal human studies. \n\nCardiovascular, metabolic/endocrine and drug pharmacokinetic phenomena are driven by biomolecules varying on the time scale of seconds to minutes to hours, impacting behavior and well-being on similar time scales. Currently, the only way to measure these molecules is through laboratory testing, which is obtrusive to daily life. Moreover, laboratory testing cannot be conducted at the frequency necessary to capture all of these variations. \n\nIn contrast, wearable monitors are user-friendly and enable continuous measurements at the correct time scale. These monitors require specially engineered biosensors, since there are a limited number of naturally-occurring enzymes that generate continuous, time-varying electrical signals like those used by continuous glucose monitors, which are currently the only commercially available device of this kind. However, most labs that pioneer biosensing strategies do not develop human-compatible devices and vice versa, creating a chasm between these two areas of research and development.\n\n###Project Concept\nThis project aims to achieve minimally invasive continuous monitoring of 100+ analytes in the human body and deliver devices to researchers. This project will develop a medical device testbed that can use the myriad biosensing strategies pursued by academic labs to develop devices for human experiments. Our technical approach combines synthetic ion channels and conformational switches coupled with a CMOS array to assess many analytes in parallel. We already have access to customized fabrication techniques, and the cost and barriers in designing and manufacturing proteins and silicon sensors are trending downwards.\n\nThe project will progress through four interdependent stages:\n\nSurvey and prioritize metabolic, hormone, and immune targets that provide the greatest explanatory power for well-being. Select biosensor and transduction systems reported in the literature to interface with our platform.\nDevelop an integrated circuit functionalized with biosensors for parallel multi-analyte sensing packaged in a wearable form factor. Test devices in humans to validate against conventional blood sample analyses.\nSpecify and share validated devices in bulk to catalyze large-scale human field research.\nCurate a time-varying human metabolome.\n\n<a href=\"https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Screen-Shot-2023-08-31-at-9.18.31-AM.png\">4 stages</a>\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project suits a FRO-style model because the four research stages require tight feedback loops and standardization and the medical device industry is not incentivized to pursue this kind of research. Private companies typically focus on a handful of molecules most relevant to diabetes care, taking advantage of proven biosensors and predictable insurance reimbursement. A stand-alone, non-profit institute is best suited to standardize and derisk experiments on molecular monitoring to catalyze the formation of a consortium of experimenters. Just as the nonprofit AddGene has standardized and democratized access to genetic material, we seek to develop the analog institution for medical devices.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress \nHuman physiology is currently a poorly explored, high-dimensional space, and scientific labs lack the tools to measure human biochemistry over time. The devices developed through this project will first help scientists study specific questions in domains such as disease etiology, human behavior, and drug discovery. Study validity will be enhanced by providing additional molecular time courses which will clarify the relationships between conditions, specific biomarkers, and interventions. Next, these studies will enable the development of a human molecular atlas, similar to the Human Metabolome Database but with time resolution. This database could act as a powerful tool for developing nuanced models of human physiology to uncover previously overlooked phenomena. Finally, similar devices will ultimately become accessible as consumer health products, enabling the next generation of personalized health." }, { "id": 19030, "title": "Assuming the human molecular monitoring FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of developing a 10-analyte device for in situ monitoring be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "10-analyte Device for In-Situ Monitoring?", "url_title": "10-analyte Device for In-Situ Monitoring?", "slug": "10-analyte-device-for-in-situ-monitoring", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-22T22:40:25.424651Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.034024Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", 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"2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Develop a Modular and Scalable Platform for Human Molecular Monitoring](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EJH6XDEOCbgQOTd8SaAHYglfq9h6GqNFlIlOroMaLWo/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\nWearable health electronics are now ubiquitous, but continuous molecular monitoring is only widely available for glucose. Decades of research have expanded continuous monitoring to other molecules, but these techniques are restricted to research labs and remain disconnected from daily human use. We propose a platform to translate and distribute these emerging technologies, enabling the mapping of the time-varying human metabolome and the design of closed-loop devices for personalized health.\n\n###Problem Statement\nHumans are the best model organisms for humans, yet we have few tools to study human biochemistry in situ and in real time. The Human Metabolome Database lists ~20,000 detected compounds, of which only ~3,000 have been quantified. Even fewer of these biomolecules have been studied with time resolution in longitudinal human studies. \n\nCardiovascular, metabolic/endocrine and drug pharmacokinetic phenomena are driven by biomolecules varying on the time scale of seconds to minutes to hours, impacting behavior and well-being on similar time scales. Currently, the only way to measure these molecules is through laboratory testing, which is obtrusive to daily life. Moreover, laboratory testing cannot be conducted at the frequency necessary to capture all of these variations. \n\nIn contrast, wearable monitors are user-friendly and enable continuous measurements at the correct time scale. These monitors require specially engineered biosensors, since there are a limited number of naturally-occurring enzymes that generate continuous, time-varying electrical signals like those used by continuous glucose monitors, which are currently the only commercially available device of this kind. However, most labs that pioneer biosensing strategies do not develop human-compatible devices and vice versa, creating a chasm between these two areas of research and development.\n\n###Project Concept\nThis project aims to achieve minimally invasive continuous monitoring of 100+ analytes in the human body and deliver devices to researchers. This project will develop a medical device testbed that can use the myriad biosensing strategies pursued by academic labs to develop devices for human experiments. Our technical approach combines synthetic ion channels and conformational switches coupled with a CMOS array to assess many analytes in parallel. We already have access to customized fabrication techniques, and the cost and barriers in designing and manufacturing proteins and silicon sensors are trending downwards.\n\nThe project will progress through four interdependent stages:\n\nSurvey and prioritize metabolic, hormone, and immune targets that provide the greatest explanatory power for well-being. Select biosensor and transduction systems reported in the literature to interface with our platform.\nDevelop an integrated circuit functionalized with biosensors for parallel multi-analyte sensing packaged in a wearable form factor. Test devices in humans to validate against conventional blood sample analyses.\nSpecify and share validated devices in bulk to catalyze large-scale human field research.\nCurate a time-varying human metabolome.\n\n<a href=\"https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Screen-Shot-2023-08-31-at-9.18.31-AM.png\">4 stages</a>\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project suits a FRO-style model because the four research stages require tight feedback loops and standardization and the medical device industry is not incentivized to pursue this kind of research. Private companies typically focus on a handful of molecules most relevant to diabetes care, taking advantage of proven biosensors and predictable insurance reimbursement. A stand-alone, non-profit institute is best suited to standardize and derisk experiments on molecular monitoring to catalyze the formation of a consortium of experimenters. Just as the nonprofit AddGene has standardized and democratized access to genetic material, we seek to develop the analog institution for medical devices.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress \nHuman physiology is currently a poorly explored, high-dimensional space, and scientific labs lack the tools to measure human biochemistry over time. The devices developed through this project will first help scientists study specific questions in domains such as disease etiology, human behavior, and drug discovery. Study validity will be enhanced by providing additional molecular time courses which will clarify the relationships between conditions, specific biomarkers, and interventions. Next, these studies will enable the development of a human molecular atlas, similar to the Human Metabolome Database but with time resolution. This database could act as a powerful tool for developing nuanced models of human physiology to uncover previously overlooked phenomena. Finally, similar devices will ultimately become accessible as consumer health products, enabling the next generation of personalized health.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 1: Develop a 10-analyte device for in situ monitoring **\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [develop a platform for human molecular monitoring](https://fas.org/publication/fro-scalable-molecular-monitoring/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19030, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703677579.55157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703677579.55157, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3812868363114031 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7999261066561146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008282.585859, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008282.585859, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7127638006712057, 0.2872361993287943 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for a “Focused Research Organization” to Develop a Modular and Scalable Platform for Human Molecular Monitoring](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1EJH6XDEOCbgQOTd8SaAHYglfq9h6GqNFlIlOroMaLWo/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\nWearable health electronics are now ubiquitous, but continuous molecular monitoring is only widely available for glucose. Decades of research have expanded continuous monitoring to other molecules, but these techniques are restricted to research labs and remain disconnected from daily human use. We propose a platform to translate and distribute these emerging technologies, enabling the mapping of the time-varying human metabolome and the design of closed-loop devices for personalized health.\n\n###Problem Statement\nHumans are the best model organisms for humans, yet we have few tools to study human biochemistry in situ and in real time. The Human Metabolome Database lists ~20,000 detected compounds, of which only ~3,000 have been quantified. Even fewer of these biomolecules have been studied with time resolution in longitudinal human studies. \n\nCardiovascular, metabolic/endocrine and drug pharmacokinetic phenomena are driven by biomolecules varying on the time scale of seconds to minutes to hours, impacting behavior and well-being on similar time scales. Currently, the only way to measure these molecules is through laboratory testing, which is obtrusive to daily life. Moreover, laboratory testing cannot be conducted at the frequency necessary to capture all of these variations. \n\nIn contrast, wearable monitors are user-friendly and enable continuous measurements at the correct time scale. These monitors require specially engineered biosensors, since there are a limited number of naturally-occurring enzymes that generate continuous, time-varying electrical signals like those used by continuous glucose monitors, which are currently the only commercially available device of this kind. However, most labs that pioneer biosensing strategies do not develop human-compatible devices and vice versa, creating a chasm between these two areas of research and development.\n\n###Project Concept\nThis project aims to achieve minimally invasive continuous monitoring of 100+ analytes in the human body and deliver devices to researchers. This project will develop a medical device testbed that can use the myriad biosensing strategies pursued by academic labs to develop devices for human experiments. Our technical approach combines synthetic ion channels and conformational switches coupled with a CMOS array to assess many analytes in parallel. We already have access to customized fabrication techniques, and the cost and barriers in designing and manufacturing proteins and silicon sensors are trending downwards.\n\nThe project will progress through four interdependent stages:\n\nSurvey and prioritize metabolic, hormone, and immune targets that provide the greatest explanatory power for well-being. Select biosensor and transduction systems reported in the literature to interface with our platform.\nDevelop an integrated circuit functionalized with biosensors for parallel multi-analyte sensing packaged in a wearable form factor. Test devices in humans to validate against conventional blood sample analyses.\nSpecify and share validated devices in bulk to catalyze large-scale human field research.\nCurate a time-varying human metabolome.\n\n<a href=\"https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Screen-Shot-2023-08-31-at-9.18.31-AM.png\">4 stages</a>\n\n###What Is A Focused Research Organization? \nFocused Research Organizations (FROs) are time-limited mission-focused research teams organized like a startup to tackle a specific mid-scale science or technology challenge. FRO projects seek to produce transformative new tools, technologies, processes, or datasets that serve as public goods, creating new capabilities for the research community with the goal of accelerating scientific and technological progress more broadly. Crucially, FRO projects are those that often fall between the cracks left by existing research funding sources due to conflicting incentives, processes, mission, or culture. There are likely a large range of project concepts for which agencies could leverage FRO-style entities to achieve their mission and advance scientific progress.\n\nThis project suits a FRO-style model because the four research stages require tight feedback loops and standardization and the medical device industry is not incentivized to pursue this kind of research. Private companies typically focus on a handful of molecules most relevant to diabetes care, taking advantage of proven biosensors and predictable insurance reimbursement. A stand-alone, non-profit institute is best suited to standardize and derisk experiments on molecular monitoring to catalyze the formation of a consortium of experimenters. Just as the nonprofit AddGene has standardized and democratized access to genetic material, we seek to develop the analog institution for medical devices.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress \nHuman physiology is currently a poorly explored, high-dimensional space, and scientific labs lack the tools to measure human biochemistry over time. The devices developed through this project will first help scientists study specific questions in domains such as disease etiology, human behavior, and drug discovery. Study validity will be enhanced by providing additional molecular time courses which will clarify the relationships between conditions, specific biomarkers, and interventions. Next, these studies will enable the development of a human molecular atlas, similar to the Human Metabolome Database but with time resolution. This database could act as a powerful tool for developing nuanced models of human physiology to uncover previously overlooked phenomena. Finally, similar devices will ultimately become accessible as consumer health products, enabling the next generation of personalized health." }, { "id": 19023, "title": "Assuming the antibody characterization FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of conducting knock-out testing of all recombinant antibodies for 15k proteins be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "Antibody Knock Out Testing for 15k Proteins?", "url_title": "Antibody Knock Out Testing for 15k Proteins?", "slug": "antibody-knock-out-testing-for-15k-proteins", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-22T22:11:21.139036Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.532035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19023, "title": "Assuming the antibody characterization FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of conducting knock-out testing of all recombinant antibodies for 15k proteins be achieved before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-09-22T22:11:21.139036Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for A \"Focused Research Organization” to Validate Antibodies Through Open Science](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zi1ZFcuLGfg_iUfjTCaDY9xHDMj-jm2TTaRgwe3jDGc/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\n**Many antibodies that scientists purchase from commercial manufacturers to conduct their research do not work as advertised, because most have never been validated properly. This project brings together the public and private sectors to conduct independent, third-party testing of commercial antibody manufacturers’ catalogs and publish the results in the public domain, such that no scientist ever uses an ineffective antibody again.**\n\n###Problem Statement\nThousands of scientists use antibodies – each of which targets one of the 20,000 human proteins – to develop fundamental theories of human biology, and to identify targets for new medicines. These antibodies are often purchased from commercial antibody manufacturers, whose combined catalog contains between 3.5 million and 4.8 million products. But for more than 30 years, the scientific community has been aware that many of these antibodies do not work as advertised, meaning that they do not recognize the intended protein target, or recognize the target but also recognize non-specific targets that confound their use. This occurs because many if not most antibodies have never been validated, or have been validated using inferior or outdated scientific methods, and because academics do not have resources or skill sets to test them themselves. When an antibody binds to a non-targeted protein, a researcher may believe that the target protein, perhaps a drug target, is present in a particular cell type or subcellular organelle when in reality it is not. These erroneous results lead to a vast waste of time, resources, and human capital.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe science on the optimal antibody testing methodology is largely settled: using an appropriately selected wild type human cell and a CRISPR knockout version of the same cell as the basis for testing yields the most rigorous and broadly applicable results. However, the cost of testing for an individual target or antibody is often prohibitive for any individual academic lab or company. Our organization, YCharOS (Antibody Characterization through Open Science), couples the settled science with a unique open science business model, in which a consortium of antibody manufacturers provide, in-kind, all their renewable antibodies (i.e. monoclonal or recombinant, which once tested are of value in perpetuity) to any given target to YCharOS for use in direct, head-to-head comparisons. This centralized testing model creates massive economic efficiencies for the sector while also providing immense scientific benefit to the public. Moreover, since all data will be released into the public domain using the principles of open science, the benefits accrue to all. We envision a world where no scientist ever uses an antibody that has not been rigorously tested by an independent third party. We believe that renewable antibodies for all 20,000 human proteins can be knockout validated in many applications for a one-time total budget of approximately $100 million.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nAcademic and pharmaceutical scientists laboring to advance our understanding and treatment of human disease will be able to save time and money and produce higher quality research using validated antibodies. Monetarily, scientists spend an estimated $1 billion per year on ineffective antibodies that could otherwise be spent on conducting further research. Furthermore, there is a not insignificant volume of faulty research publications that have resulted from scientists unknowingly using ineffective antibodies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 2: Conduct knock-out testing of all available recombinant antibodies for 15k proteins**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [validate antibodies through open science](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19023, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934744.969448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934744.969448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.4046840593624231 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.8289782112881589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0946364922645004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43178139626149786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008282.169433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008282.169433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7905524413412016, 0.20944755865879836 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for A \"Focused Research Organization” to Validate Antibodies Through Open Science](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zi1ZFcuLGfg_iUfjTCaDY9xHDMj-jm2TTaRgwe3jDGc/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\n**Many antibodies that scientists purchase from commercial manufacturers to conduct their research do not work as advertised, because most have never been validated properly. This project brings together the public and private sectors to conduct independent, third-party testing of commercial antibody manufacturers’ catalogs and publish the results in the public domain, such that no scientist ever uses an ineffective antibody again.**\n\n###Problem Statement\nThousands of scientists use antibodies – each of which targets one of the 20,000 human proteins – to develop fundamental theories of human biology, and to identify targets for new medicines. These antibodies are often purchased from commercial antibody manufacturers, whose combined catalog contains between 3.5 million and 4.8 million products. But for more than 30 years, the scientific community has been aware that many of these antibodies do not work as advertised, meaning that they do not recognize the intended protein target, or recognize the target but also recognize non-specific targets that confound their use. This occurs because many if not most antibodies have never been validated, or have been validated using inferior or outdated scientific methods, and because academics do not have resources or skill sets to test them themselves. When an antibody binds to a non-targeted protein, a researcher may believe that the target protein, perhaps a drug target, is present in a particular cell type or subcellular organelle when in reality it is not. These erroneous results lead to a vast waste of time, resources, and human capital.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe science on the optimal antibody testing methodology is largely settled: using an appropriately selected wild type human cell and a CRISPR knockout version of the same cell as the basis for testing yields the most rigorous and broadly applicable results. However, the cost of testing for an individual target or antibody is often prohibitive for any individual academic lab or company. Our organization, YCharOS (Antibody Characterization through Open Science), couples the settled science with a unique open science business model, in which a consortium of antibody manufacturers provide, in-kind, all their renewable antibodies (i.e. monoclonal or recombinant, which once tested are of value in perpetuity) to any given target to YCharOS for use in direct, head-to-head comparisons. This centralized testing model creates massive economic efficiencies for the sector while also providing immense scientific benefit to the public. Moreover, since all data will be released into the public domain using the principles of open science, the benefits accrue to all. We envision a world where no scientist ever uses an antibody that has not been rigorously tested by an independent third party. We believe that renewable antibodies for all 20,000 human proteins can be knockout validated in many applications for a one-time total budget of approximately $100 million.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nAcademic and pharmaceutical scientists laboring to advance our understanding and treatment of human disease will be able to save time and money and produce higher quality research using validated antibodies. Monetarily, scientists spend an estimated $1 billion per year on ineffective antibodies that could otherwise be spent on conducting further research. Furthermore, there is a not insignificant volume of faulty research publications that have resulted from scientists unknowingly using ineffective antibodies." }, { "id": 19022, "title": "Assuming the antibody characterization FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of conducting knock-out testing of all recombinant antibodies for 10k proteins be achieved before 2031?", "short_title": "Antibody Knock Out Testing for 10k Proteins?", "url_title": "Antibody Knock Out Testing for 10k Proteins?", "slug": "antibody-knock-out-testing-for-10k-proteins", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-09-22T22:10:02.159304Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.328781Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", 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"2023-09-28T21:53:02Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T22:53:02Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2638, "type": "question_series", "name": "Antibody Characterization through Open Science", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/antibodies.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-09-28T21:53:02Z", "close_date": "2023-12-31T22:53:02Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 19022, "title": "Assuming the antibody characterization FRO is funded by 2025, will the milestone of conducting knock-out testing of all recombinant antibodies for 10k proteins be achieved before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-09-22T22:10:02.159304Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-11-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for A \"Focused Research Organization” to Validate Antibodies Through Open Science](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zi1ZFcuLGfg_iUfjTCaDY9xHDMj-jm2TTaRgwe3jDGc/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\n**Many antibodies that scientists purchase from commercial manufacturers to conduct their research do not work as advertised, because most have never been validated properly. This project brings together the public and private sectors to conduct independent, third-party testing of commercial antibody manufacturers’ catalogs and publish the results in the public domain, such that no scientist ever uses an ineffective antibody again.**\n\n###Problem Statement\nThousands of scientists use antibodies – each of which targets one of the 20,000 human proteins – to develop fundamental theories of human biology, and to identify targets for new medicines. These antibodies are often purchased from commercial antibody manufacturers, whose combined catalog contains between 3.5 million and 4.8 million products. But for more than 30 years, the scientific community has been aware that many of these antibodies do not work as advertised, meaning that they do not recognize the intended protein target, or recognize the target but also recognize non-specific targets that confound their use. This occurs because many if not most antibodies have never been validated, or have been validated using inferior or outdated scientific methods, and because academics do not have resources or skill sets to test them themselves. When an antibody binds to a non-targeted protein, a researcher may believe that the target protein, perhaps a drug target, is present in a particular cell type or subcellular organelle when in reality it is not. These erroneous results lead to a vast waste of time, resources, and human capital.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe science on the optimal antibody testing methodology is largely settled: using an appropriately selected wild type human cell and a CRISPR knockout version of the same cell as the basis for testing yields the most rigorous and broadly applicable results. However, the cost of testing for an individual target or antibody is often prohibitive for any individual academic lab or company. Our organization, YCharOS (Antibody Characterization through Open Science), couples the settled science with a unique open science business model, in which a consortium of antibody manufacturers provide, in-kind, all their renewable antibodies (i.e. monoclonal or recombinant, which once tested are of value in perpetuity) to any given target to YCharOS for use in direct, head-to-head comparisons. This centralized testing model creates massive economic efficiencies for the sector while also providing immense scientific benefit to the public. Moreover, since all data will be released into the public domain using the principles of open science, the benefits accrue to all. We envision a world where no scientist ever uses an antibody that has not been rigorously tested by an independent third party. We believe that renewable antibodies for all 20,000 human proteins can be knockout validated in many applications for a one-time total budget of approximately $100 million.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nAcademic and pharmaceutical scientists laboring to advance our understanding and treatment of human disease will be able to save time and money and produce higher quality research using validated antibodies. Monetarily, scientists spend an estimated $1 billion per year on ineffective antibodies that could otherwise be spent on conducting further research. Furthermore, there is a not insignificant volume of faulty research publications that have resulted from scientists unknowingly using ineffective antibodies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if—before Jan 1, 2031—the following conditions are true:\n\n1. This FRO is funded at ≥$50M, according to reporting from the Federation of American Scientists\n\n2. The Federation of American Scientists says that the following milestone has been achieved:\n\n**Milestone 1: Conduct knock-out testing of all available recombinant antibodies for 10k proteins**\n\nThe question can resolve **Yes** whether or not the milestone has been achieved by the proposed FRO to [validate antibodies through open science](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19022, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703934738.694661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703934738.694661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6676208904874666 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.5732928815018028, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1570513256851056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5339737913718565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008490.908115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008490.908115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3840051952560384, 0.6159948047439616 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "We recommend forecasters start with this document, [Forecasting Information for A \"Focused Research Organization” to Validate Antibodies Through Open Science](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zi1ZFcuLGfg_iUfjTCaDY9xHDMj-jm2TTaRgwe3jDGc/edit?usp=sharing).\n\n---\n\nFrom the [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/publication/a-focused-research-organization-to-characterize-antibodies-through-open-science/):\n\n**Many antibodies that scientists purchase from commercial manufacturers to conduct their research do not work as advertised, because most have never been validated properly. This project brings together the public and private sectors to conduct independent, third-party testing of commercial antibody manufacturers’ catalogs and publish the results in the public domain, such that no scientist ever uses an ineffective antibody again.**\n\n###Problem Statement\nThousands of scientists use antibodies – each of which targets one of the 20,000 human proteins – to develop fundamental theories of human biology, and to identify targets for new medicines. These antibodies are often purchased from commercial antibody manufacturers, whose combined catalog contains between 3.5 million and 4.8 million products. But for more than 30 years, the scientific community has been aware that many of these antibodies do not work as advertised, meaning that they do not recognize the intended protein target, or recognize the target but also recognize non-specific targets that confound their use. This occurs because many if not most antibodies have never been validated, or have been validated using inferior or outdated scientific methods, and because academics do not have resources or skill sets to test them themselves. When an antibody binds to a non-targeted protein, a researcher may believe that the target protein, perhaps a drug target, is present in a particular cell type or subcellular organelle when in reality it is not. These erroneous results lead to a vast waste of time, resources, and human capital.\n\n###Project Concept\nThe science on the optimal antibody testing methodology is largely settled: using an appropriately selected wild type human cell and a CRISPR knockout version of the same cell as the basis for testing yields the most rigorous and broadly applicable results. However, the cost of testing for an individual target or antibody is often prohibitive for any individual academic lab or company. Our organization, YCharOS (Antibody Characterization through Open Science), couples the settled science with a unique open science business model, in which a consortium of antibody manufacturers provide, in-kind, all their renewable antibodies (i.e. monoclonal or recombinant, which once tested are of value in perpetuity) to any given target to YCharOS for use in direct, head-to-head comparisons. This centralized testing model creates massive economic efficiencies for the sector while also providing immense scientific benefit to the public. Moreover, since all data will be released into the public domain using the principles of open science, the benefits accrue to all. We envision a world where no scientist ever uses an antibody that has not been rigorously tested by an independent third party. We believe that renewable antibodies for all 20,000 human proteins can be knockout validated in many applications for a one-time total budget of approximately $100 million.\n\n###How This Project Will Benefit Scientific Progress\nAcademic and pharmaceutical scientists laboring to advance our understanding and treatment of human disease will be able to save time and money and produce higher quality research using validated antibodies. Monetarily, scientists spend an estimated $1 billion per year on ineffective antibodies that could otherwise be spent on conducting further research. Furthermore, there is a not insignificant volume of faulty research publications that have resulted from scientists unknowingly using ineffective antibodies." }, { "id": 19021, "title": "Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?", "short_title": "Autonomous LLM attack/virus/worm before 2025", "url_title": "Autonomous LLM attack/virus/worm before 2025", "slug": "autonomous-llm-attackvirusworm-before-2025", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100216, "username": "kokotajlod" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-09-22T20:15:59.375274Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.767089Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T20:13:51.786145Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T20:13:51.786145Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19021, "title": "Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-09-22T20:15:59.375274Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-30T19:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-30T19:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T21:45:04.429703Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Note: This question is a stricter operationalization of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19020/llm-cyberattackvirusworm-before-2025/).\n\nAs large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are [concerned](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/wormgpt-black-hat-llm) that LLMs could potentially be used in the execution of cyberattacks and the production of viruses and worms.\n\nFurthermore, as LLMs gain autonomous capabilities as AI agents, such as in the case of AutoGPT and BabyAGI, there is the possibility that such attacks could occur more easily and more frequently.\n\nThis question asks whether a major cyberattack or significant virus or worm that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs (copying weights from one computer to another without any human hacker intervening in between) will arise before 2025.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, a cyberattack, worm, or virus, will be considered major if any of the below scenarios occur as a result:\n\n- At least one person is killed\n\n- There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage\n\n- a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if credible sources report that an autonomous and self-replicating LLM (that copies its weights from one computer to another without any human hacker intervening in between) has caused a major cyberattack, virus, or worm that results in any of the following:\n\n- At least one person is killed\n\n- There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage\n\n- a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus.\n\nIf none of these scenarios occur before January 1st 2025, this question will resolve negatively.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 19021, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671377.649571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671377.649571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.03767317630265356 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.829698555184555, 1.6182772556306528, 0.04492986066620649, 0.7955553712204115, 0.0, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.4249559516928073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039003561466750214, 0.09543546787520314, 0.14714271133780696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.020655434800179992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01414047269109762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7370646316360566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038677169971580376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06665641869459375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017206765638407475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 88.93879497913794, "peer_score": 17.198495073347804, "coverage": 0.9991459999820382, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9991459999820382, "spot_peer_score": 12.641145848073512, "spot_baseline_score": 51.39959793670126, "baseline_archived_score": 88.93879497913794, "peer_archived_score": 17.198495073347804, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.641145848073512, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 51.39959793670126 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290039.653584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290039.653584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993473367403796, 0.0006526632596204774 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Note: This question is a stricter operationalization of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19020/llm-cyberattackvirusworm-before-2025/).\n\nAs large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are [concerned](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/wormgpt-black-hat-llm) that LLMs could potentially be used in the execution of cyberattacks and the production of viruses and worms.\n\nFurthermore, as LLMs gain autonomous capabilities as AI agents, such as in the case of AutoGPT and BabyAGI, there is the possibility that such attacks could occur more easily and more frequently.\n\nThis question asks whether a major cyberattack or significant virus or worm that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs (copying weights from one computer to another without any human hacker intervening in between) will arise before 2025.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, a cyberattack, worm, or virus, will be considered major if any of the below scenarios occur as a result:\n\n- At least one person is killed\n\n- There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage\n\n- a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus." }, { "id": 19020, "title": "Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?", "short_title": "LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025?", "url_title": "LLM cyberattack/virus/worm before 2025?", "slug": "llm-cyberattackvirusworm-before-2025", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100216, "username": "kokotajlod" }, { "id": 119005, "username": "will_aldred" } ], "created_at": "2023-09-22T19:41:25.630447Z", "published_at": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.962044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 132, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T20:13:51.786145Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T20:13:51.786145Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 19020, "title": "Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-09-22T19:41:25.630447Z", "open_time": "2023-09-28T19:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-30T18:14:01.681000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-30T18:14:01.681000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T11:25:19.026754Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Note: This question is a looser operationalization of [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19021/autonomous-llm-attackvirusworm-before-2025/).\n\nAs large language models (LLMs) become widely adopted and increasingly powerful, AI and cybersecurity experts are [concerned](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/wormgpt-black-hat-llm) that LLMs could potentially be used in the execution of cyberattacks and the production of viruses and worms.\n\nThis question asks whether a major cyberattack or significant virus or worm that uses LLMs will arise before 2025.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, a cyberattack, worm, or virus, will be considered major if any of the below scenarios occur as a result:\n\n- At least one person is killed\n\n- There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage\n\n- a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point because of such a cyberattack, worm, or virus.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if credible sources report that a major cyberattack, virus, or worm that uses LLMs results in any of the following:\n\n- At least one person is killed\n\n- There is at least 10 million dollars worth of damage\n\n- a medical facility, government facility, or company with a market value of at least 100 million dollars is unable to continue basic functions at any given point 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