Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3440
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3460", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3420", "results": [ { "id": 14962, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "1,000 deaths from Egypt/Ethiopia Conflict", "url_title": "1,000 deaths from Egypt/Ethiopia Conflict", "slug": "1000-deaths-from-egyptethiopia-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-02-01T14:29:07.977422Z", "published_at": "2023-02-12T12:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:49:52.900627Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-12T12:44:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2071-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-02-12T12:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14962, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "created_at": "2023-02-01T14:29:07.977422Z", "open_time": "2023-02-12T12:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-14T12:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-14T12:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2071-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2069-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[War between Egypt and Ethiopia is a growing fear.](https://www.theafricareport.com/85672/is-a-war-between-egypt-and-ethiopia-brewing-on-the-nile/) If water rights over the Nile are not settled peacefully, it is feared Egypt could attack Ethiopia. Specifically, it is commonly speculated that Egypt [could bomb](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/23/itll-cause-a-water-war-divisions-run-deep-as-filling-of-nile-dam-nears) the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and spark a conflict. \n\nThe Nile River is [very important](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI6VaNG8_nE) for both nations. If access to the river is reduced by Ethiopia, Egypt potentially faces severe water shortages in a country with well over 100 million people. [Many experts](https://news.usc.edu/188414/nile-river-water-dispute-filling-dam-egypt-ethiopia-usc-study/) attest to the potential danger the Dam poses.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Egypt and Ethiopia (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Egypt and the government of Ethiopia). \n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Egypt and the government of Ethiopia. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Egypt or Ethiopia cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 14962, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757472582.699097, "end_time": 1783208733.964, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.351 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757472582.699097, "end_time": 1783208733.964, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.351 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.649, 0.351 ], "means": [ 0.36950003262173026 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.15777213543695162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6403200895653884, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.885016947951837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.2294539435535619, 0.43563441074387765, 0.06934409839582649, 0.16598497756774988, 0.8402148505771252, 0.080917342808261, 0.31964760159434596, 0.23492048740057725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290261.072736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290261.072736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6659320245230239, 0.3340679754769761 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[War between Egypt and Ethiopia is a growing fear.](https://www.theafricareport.com/85672/is-a-war-between-egypt-and-ethiopia-brewing-on-the-nile/) If water rights over the Nile are not settled peacefully, it is feared Egypt could attack Ethiopia. Specifically, it is commonly speculated that Egypt [could bomb](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/23/itll-cause-a-water-war-divisions-run-deep-as-filling-of-nile-dam-nears) the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and spark a conflict. \n\nThe Nile River is [very important](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI6VaNG8_nE) for both nations. If access to the river is reduced by Ethiopia, Egypt potentially faces severe water shortages in a country with well over 100 million people. [Many experts](https://news.usc.edu/188414/nile-river-water-dispute-filling-dam-egypt-ethiopia-usc-study/) attest to the potential danger the Dam poses." }, { "id": 14953, "title": "Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?", "short_title": "H3 Launch Vehicle with ALOS-3 Maiden Launch", "url_title": "H3 Launch Vehicle with ALOS-3 Maiden Launch", "slug": "h3-launch-vehicle-with-alos-3-maiden-launch", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-31T20:39:55.009908Z", "published_at": "2023-02-03T08:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.752541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-03T08:16:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-03T17:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-03T17:04:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-03T08:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14953, "title": "Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?", "created_at": "2023-01-31T20:39:55.009908Z", "open_time": "2023-02-03T08:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-05T08:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-05T08:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-03T17:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-03T17:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-10T13:39:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-03T17:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "***A Note for Beginner Tournament Participants***\n\nThis question resolved ambiguously because it did not account for a delay in the launch window that was announced prior to the question opening.\n\nWe have created a [new version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15015/h3-launch-vehicle-with-alos-3-maiden-launch/) to use in the Beginner Tournament.\n\n-----\n\n***Original Question Text***\n\nThe original [Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Land_Observation_Satellite) also known as Daichi, was launched in 2006 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Its primary mission was to monitor and observe the Earth's environment, and its secondary mission was to provide data for disaster management and mitigation. 23 years later, JAXA is preparing to launch [ALOS-3](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/alos3/), the latest generation satellite in this family.\n\nA December 23rd [press release](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2022/12/20221223-1_e.html) from JAXA announced an initial launch date of February 12, 2023 between 10:37:55 a.m. and 10:44:15 a.m. (JST) for ALOS-3.\n\nALOS-3 will launch aboard the [H3 Launch Vehicle](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/rockets/h3/), \"Japan's new flagship rocket aiming at achieving high flexibility, high reliability, and high cost performance.\"\n\nThe H3 Launch Vehicle was set to have its maiden flight in 2020, but was delayed due to a [technical problem with the first stage engine](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2020/09/20200911-2_e.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as positive if the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 successfully launches before or within 12 hours of its announced launch window and successfully delivers ALOS-3 to begin its mission.\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.*", "fine_print": "- Admins will use [this source](https://www.spacelaunchschedule.com/launch/h3-22-alos-3-maiden-flight/) to determine if the launch was a \"Success\". \n- If the Launch Status does not equal \"Success\" *or* the launch is delayed by more than 12 hours, this question will resolve negatively.", "post_id": 14953, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675442205.769249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675442205.769249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.38024443638473887 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5176266504557887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675442205.789661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675442205.789661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6591999418370924, 0.3408000581629076 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "***A Note for Beginner Tournament Participants***\n\nThis question resolved ambiguously because it did not account for a delay in the launch window that was announced prior to the question opening.\n\nWe have created a [new version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15015/h3-launch-vehicle-with-alos-3-maiden-launch/) to use in the Beginner Tournament.\n\n-----\n\n***Original Question Text***\n\nThe original [Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_Land_Observation_Satellite) also known as Daichi, was launched in 2006 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Its primary mission was to monitor and observe the Earth's environment, and its secondary mission was to provide data for disaster management and mitigation. 23 years later, JAXA is preparing to launch [ALOS-3](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/sat/alos3/), the latest generation satellite in this family.\n\nA December 23rd [press release](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2022/12/20221223-1_e.html) from JAXA announced an initial launch date of February 12, 2023 between 10:37:55 a.m. and 10:44:15 a.m. (JST) for ALOS-3.\n\nALOS-3 will launch aboard the [H3 Launch Vehicle](https://global.jaxa.jp/projects/rockets/h3/), \"Japan's new flagship rocket aiming at achieving high flexibility, high reliability, and high cost performance.\"\n\nThe H3 Launch Vehicle was set to have its maiden flight in 2020, but was delayed due to a [technical problem with the first stage engine](https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2020/09/20200911-2_e.html)." }, { "id": 14899, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?", "short_title": "1,000 Dead In Israel/Iran Conflict by 2025?", "url_title": "1,000 Dead In Israel/Iran Conflict by 2025?", "slug": "1000-dead-in-israeliran-conflict-by-2025", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2023-01-30T02:11:46.821470Z", "published_at": "2023-02-02T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.829846Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-02T17:48:00Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-07T16:39:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-02T17:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 286, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": 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"geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14899, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-01-30T02:11:46.821470Z", "open_time": "2023-02-02T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-03T17:45:25.808000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-03T17:45:25.808000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-07T16:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-07T16:40:47.057915Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The relationship between Iran and Israel has been fraught since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. Iran officially recognizes Israel as an [illegitimate entity](https://www.rferl.org/a/1062471.html) and has supported various anti-Israel militant groups, such as [Hezbollah in Lebanon](https://www.mei.edu/publications/hezbollahs-regional-activities-support-irans-proxy-networks). The two countries have engaged in covert operations against each other and have been indirect military adversaries in conflicts in the Middle East. [Tensions have increased in recent years](https://www.mei.edu/publications/israels-new-iran-strategy-complicates-regional-security), particularly with [Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities](https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/10/deciphering-iran-s-nuclear-strategy-pub-85313) and its involvement in the Syrian Civil War. In 2018, the [US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions](https://www.sipri.org/commentary/expert-comment/2019/us-withdrawal-iran-deal-one-year), further exacerbating the tensions between Iran and Israel.\n\nIn recent years, there have been several instances of direct conflict between Iran and Israel, including [airstrikes attributed to Israel on Iranian targets](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/top-israeli-general-claims-attack-convoy-iraq-syria-border-2022-12-14/) in Syria and Iraq, and [rocket attacks from Iranian-backed groups in Syria into Israel](https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/05/14/israel-says-rocket-attacks-from-syria-in-the-north-amid-gaza-fighting-in-south/?sh=25d9c9cc5c2d). These events have heightened concerns over the possibility of a larger conflict breaking out between the two countries and their allies in the region. \n\nU.S. officials stated that [Israel appeared to be behind a late-January 2023 drone strike](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blast-heard-military-plant-irans-central-city-isfahan-state-media-2023-01-28/) on a military factory in Iran, as part of an operation to [contain Tehran's military and nuclear ambitions](https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-strikes-iran-amid-new-international-push-to-contain-tehran-11675004979?mod=hp_lead_pos10).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the years 2023 and 2024 combined, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports 1,000 or more [state-based conflict deaths for the Iran-Israel conflict](https://ucdp.uu.se/conflict/14609) (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\"). The 1,000 deaths need not occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's [methodology](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/methodology/) in calculating conflict deaths.\n\nIf UCDP does not report data for 2023 and 2024, the question resolves as **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14899, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671296.384323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 282, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671296.384323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 282, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.03861001252508999 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.519811975552134, 6.508431230178326, 1.5746893564210764, 1.3454178215308124, 0.6217993121103037, 1.0571752845881592, 0.12014184486975277, 0.48076763322041804, 0.47117924796977256, 0.0055425536550397685, 0.5607123529058429, 0.04330270071022733, 0.100100914717416, 0.06844840446310152, 0.30070037112887626, 0.06773495818066212, 0.0022153172181560983, 0.002059598129266393, 0.13723132570032542, 0.0653668062850498, 0.6279219657942532, 1.0004369475105473e-05, 0.15795796066159667, 0.02295239441876645, 0.012486156419566099, 0.17564334739199455, 0.05305377998570248, 6.350684293366904e-05, 0.0014923501185147474, 0.0, 0.003137847471996346, 0.015951594332067096, 0.0903125198361515, 0.0011363388055449304, 0.06576889029796662, 0.009336005961776018, 0.006717565269425022, 0.0, 0.0, 1.591429211688691e-05, 0.08134032455098694, 0.06347007296104698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006714824732457104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2181189780963858, 0.015271783102850392, 0.0, 0.0018275716838053267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06814485328546403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09346514722321213, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1109712673568874e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011791281109703408, 0.010615852142671054, 1.0116396833568607e-05, 0.0, 0.07846922455317654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.433368475665018e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1447357468527194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008271736502086216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.231853422683205e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00046085732891998777, 0.0, 0.0007456959779237599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011953572228480293 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.67764778424046, "peer_score": 12.854884658998337, "coverage": 0.9999904024678904, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999904024678904, "spot_peer_score": 24.967720718277096, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 73.67764778424046, "peer_archived_score": 12.854884658998337, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.967720718277096, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287020.610892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 256, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287020.610892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 256, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.956039461136092, 0.043960538863908084 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 26, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1167, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The relationship between Iran and Israel has been fraught since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. Iran officially recognizes Israel as an [illegitimate entity](https://www.rferl.org/a/1062471.html) and has supported various anti-Israel militant groups, such as [Hezbollah in Lebanon](https://www.mei.edu/publications/hezbollahs-regional-activities-support-irans-proxy-networks). The two countries have engaged in covert operations against each other and have been indirect military adversaries in conflicts in the Middle East. [Tensions have increased in recent years](https://www.mei.edu/publications/israels-new-iran-strategy-complicates-regional-security), particularly with [Iran's pursuit of nuclear capabilities](https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/09/10/deciphering-iran-s-nuclear-strategy-pub-85313) and its involvement in the Syrian Civil War. In 2018, the [US pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions](https://www.sipri.org/commentary/expert-comment/2019/us-withdrawal-iran-deal-one-year), further exacerbating the tensions between Iran and Israel.\n\nIn recent years, there have been several instances of direct conflict between Iran and Israel, including [airstrikes attributed to Israel on Iranian targets](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/top-israeli-general-claims-attack-convoy-iraq-syria-border-2022-12-14/) in Syria and Iraq, and [rocket attacks from Iranian-backed groups in Syria into Israel](https://www.forbes.com/sites/joewalsh/2021/05/14/israel-says-rocket-attacks-from-syria-in-the-north-amid-gaza-fighting-in-south/?sh=25d9c9cc5c2d). These events have heightened concerns over the possibility of a larger conflict breaking out between the two countries and their allies in the region. \n\nU.S. officials stated that [Israel appeared to be behind a late-January 2023 drone strike](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/blast-heard-military-plant-irans-central-city-isfahan-state-media-2023-01-28/) on a military factory in Iran, as part of an operation to [contain Tehran's military and nuclear ambitions](https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-strikes-iran-amid-new-international-push-to-contain-tehran-11675004979?mod=hp_lead_pos10)." }, { "id": 14846, "title": "Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to \"High\" or \"Very High\" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?", "short_title": "Second Flu Season Peak for Virginia", "url_title": "Second Flu Season Peak for Virginia", "slug": "second-flu-season-peak-for-virginia", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-27T19:58:07.410152Z", "published_at": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.605677Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-07T15:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, 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null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-29T10:13:19.170106Z", "edited_at": "2024-02-29T13:51:16.280664Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14846, "title": "Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to \"High\" or \"Very High\" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?", "created_at": "2023-01-27T19:58:07.410152Z", "open_time": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-02T03:04:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-02T03:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-07-07T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-07-07T15:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-07-07T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "So far, the 2022-2023 flu season both [in Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/Weekly-Influenza-Activity-Report.pdf) and [in the U.S. generally](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has been characterized by an unusually early peak in flu activity. For the past several weeks, flu activity has been declining in Virginia and the U.S. generally.\n\nHowever, given the early peak in flu cases this season, there is concern about the possibility of a second later peak — either because protection conferred by vaccination/previous infection may have have waned, because of the arising of a different flu strain, or both. This kind of bimodal flu activity has [some precedent](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/this-year-the-flu-came-in-two-waves-heres-why).\n\nHistorical data on Virginia's ILI activity level can be accessed using the slider under \"Outpatient Respiratory Illness Activity Map\" on [this](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) CDC page. The last time Virginia's ILI activity level was \"High\" or \"Very High\" was for the week ending January 7, 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve on the basis of whether the Virginia Department of Health's [Weekly Influenza Activity Report](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/epidemiology/influenza-flu-in-virginia/influenza-surveillance/) indicates that the state of Virginia was at the \"High\" or \"Very High\" influenza-like illness (ILI) activity level for any reported week ending in February, March, April, May or June 2023 (between the week ending February 4, 2023 and the week ending July 1, 2023).", "fine_print": "This asks about the overall ILI activity in Virginia, not about Virginia's regions. The \"High\" or \"Very High\" level only needs to be reached for a week for this to resolve positively.", "post_id": 14846, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688186636.888345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688186636.888345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023257295845253427 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.544295776418112, 5.702334763360641, 0.0, 0.27035737408392213, 0.0, 0.7760988940521861, 0.0989186410758417, 0.28004006861109293, 0.017210119101531127, 0.007446731347793363, 0.013291901200468375, 0.0, 0.010070387089084703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0053330571903923785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8284076835897499, 0.0, 0.06261470488347545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023291363431415532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002949293081317581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004442640210629016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.74331723888749, "coverage": 0.999106592551387, "baseline_score": 84.40497736282813, "spot_peer_score": 41.702268010384984, "peer_archived_score": 22.74331723888749, "baseline_archived_score": 84.40497736282813, "spot_peer_archived_score": 41.702268010384984 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1688197293.247227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1688197293.247227, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 236, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "So far, the 2022-2023 flu season both [in Virginia](https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/content/uploads/sites/3/2019/12/Weekly-Influenza-Activity-Report.pdf) and [in the U.S. generally](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has been characterized by an unusually early peak in flu activity. For the past several weeks, flu activity has been declining in Virginia and the U.S. generally.\n\nHowever, given the early peak in flu cases this season, there is concern about the possibility of a second later peak — either because protection conferred by vaccination/previous infection may have have waned, because of the arising of a different flu strain, or both. This kind of bimodal flu activity has [some precedent](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/this-year-the-flu-came-in-two-waves-heres-why).\n\nHistorical data on Virginia's ILI activity level can be accessed using the slider under \"Outpatient Respiratory Illness Activity Map\" on [this](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) CDC page. The last time Virginia's ILI activity level was \"High\" or \"Very High\" was for the week ending January 7, 2023." }, { "id": 14845, "title": "Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?", "short_title": "No Authorized COVID Therapeutic in 2023", "url_title": "No Authorized COVID Therapeutic in 2023", "slug": "no-authorized-covid-therapeutic-in-2023", "author_id": 111848, "author_username": "juancambeiro", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-27T19:24:27.927759Z", "published_at": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.579462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:34:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2100, "type": "tournament", "name": "Keep Virginia Safe II", "slug": "keep-virginia-safe-ii", "header_image": 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}, "question": { "id": 14845, "title": "Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?", "created_at": "2023-01-27T19:24:27.927759Z", "open_time": "2023-01-30T18:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-07T20:04:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-07T20:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Two important types of COVID therapeutics are [monoclonal antibodies](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapies/antivirals-including-antibody-products/anti-sars-cov-2-monoclonal-antibodies/) and [antivirals](https://www.webmd.com/covid/antivirals-covid-19). \r\n\r\nAs of late 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had [authorized or approved](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/emergency-preparedness-drugs/coronavirus-covid-19-drugs) the use of two monoclonal antibodies (Bebtelovimab and Evusheld) and three antiviral drugs (Veklury/Remdesivir, Paxlovid, and Lagevrio/molnupiravir). \r\n\r\nHowever, the SARS-CoV-2 variants in circulation has [raised](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/11/20/1137892932/monoclonal-antibodies-covid-treatment) [concerns](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-valuable-covid-drug-doesnt-work-against-new-variants/) about the efficacy of these therapeutics, in particular the monoclonal antibodies. On November 30, 2022, the FDA [withdrew](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-announces-bebtelovimab-not-currently-authorized-any-us-region) the authorization for Bebtelovimab and on January 26, 2023, the FDA [withdrew](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-announces-evusheld-not-currently-authorized-emergency-use-us) authorization for Evusheld.\r\n\r\nAs of January 27, 2022, Paxlovid, Veklury (remdesivir) and Lagevrio (molnupiravir) [continue to remain authorized](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-announces-evusheld-not-currently-authorized-emergency-use-us) as COVID therapeutics.\r\n\r\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of there no longer being any authorized monoclonal antibodies or antivirals in the U.S. in 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve on the basis of whether the [U.S. FDA](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability) withdraws authorization/approval of all COVID monoclonal antibodies and antivirals so that there are none authorized/approved for use in the U.S.", "fine_print": "This question specifically asks about monoclonal antibodies and antivirals. Other COVID therapeutics, like immune modulators and sedatives, do not count.", "post_id": 14845, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703962096.557629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703962096.557629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.032390969921895024 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.382925180797384, 6.594101230574507, 0.1145867439248638, 0.02035427510390197, 0.0006320132079752626, 0.06655370815568037, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011180132954712787, 0.031191153071574097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021754227014258746, 0.0, 0.38658567053559373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003276927759296195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4134223820577321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004669981048994339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2050974017457311 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.740613034136786, "coverage": 0.9997041524613516, "baseline_score": 96.31797208447725, "spot_peer_score": 7.93603402986405, "peer_archived_score": 9.740613034136786, "baseline_archived_score": 96.31797208447725, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.93603402986405 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008118.117119, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008118.117119, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 208, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Two important types of COVID therapeutics are [monoclonal antibodies](https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapies/antivirals-including-antibody-products/anti-sars-cov-2-monoclonal-antibodies/) and [antivirals](https://www.webmd.com/covid/antivirals-covid-19). \r\n\r\nAs of late 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had [authorized or approved](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/emergency-preparedness-drugs/coronavirus-covid-19-drugs) the use of two monoclonal antibodies (Bebtelovimab and Evusheld) and three antiviral drugs (Veklury/Remdesivir, Paxlovid, and Lagevrio/molnupiravir). \r\n\r\nHowever, the SARS-CoV-2 variants in circulation has [raised](https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/11/20/1137892932/monoclonal-antibodies-covid-treatment) [concerns](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-valuable-covid-drug-doesnt-work-against-new-variants/) about the efficacy of these therapeutics, in particular the monoclonal antibodies. On November 30, 2022, the FDA [withdrew](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-announces-bebtelovimab-not-currently-authorized-any-us-region) the authorization for Bebtelovimab and on January 26, 2023, the FDA [withdrew](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-announces-evusheld-not-currently-authorized-emergency-use-us) authorization for Evusheld.\r\n\r\nAs of January 27, 2022, Paxlovid, Veklury (remdesivir) and Lagevrio (molnupiravir) [continue to remain authorized](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-announces-evusheld-not-currently-authorized-emergency-use-us) as COVID therapeutics.\r\n\r\nThe purpose of this question is to understand the likelihood of there no longer being any authorized monoclonal antibodies or antivirals in the U.S. in 2023." }, { "id": 14840, "title": "Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?", "short_title": "Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?", "url_title": "Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?", "slug": "ding-liren-2023-world-chess-champion", "author_id": 121984, "author_username": "TheNixon", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-27T05:41:47.543421Z", "published_at": "2023-02-02T01:38:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.204694Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-02T01:38:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-30T13:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-01T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T13:13:00Z", "open_time": "2023-02-02T01:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 14840, "title": "Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?", "created_at": "2023-01-27T05:41:47.543421Z", "open_time": "2023-02-02T01:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-04T01:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-04T01:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-05-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-30T13:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-30T13:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-30T13:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Magnus Carlsen [declined to defend his title as World Chess Champion](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jul/20/magnus-carlsen-will-not-defend-his-world-chess-championship-title-in-2023), leaving the championship is vacant.\n\nThe International Chess Federation (FIDE) selected the winner and runner-up of the [2022 Candidates Tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2022), Ian Nepomniachtchi and Ding Liren, to compete to be the next World Chess Champion.\n\nDing Liren narrowly secured a qualifying spot with a [final-round win](https://www.chess.com/events/2022-fide-candidates-chess-tournament/14/Ding_Liren-Nakamura_Hikaru).\n\nIan Nepomniachtchi [won the Candidates Tournament without a single loss](https://www.fide.com/news/1847). \n\nThe two men will [compete for the title](https://www.fide.com/news/2180) in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan, from starting on April 7th through May 1st.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if Ding Liren wins the contest, according to [FIDE](www.fide.com). The question will resolve as **No** if Ian Nepomniachtchi wins the match, if Ding Liren is disqualified or withdraws, or if for any reason FIDE does not declare a 2023 World Chess Champion", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14840, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682877109.272716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682877109.272716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.7940949221989881 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.017809903405682333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13495591526548437, 0.0010255387381884256, 0.0021783457115586336, 0.004566222656217276, 0.0, 0.7874541820372831, 0.0, 0.005535430934508947, 0.004135742170104737, 0.2690762365531488, 0.0, 0.0, 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0.0, 0.0, 0.10958166246629134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.94912438469017 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.089144516393292, "coverage": 0.9821297349700365, "baseline_score": -18.48976559585761, "spot_peer_score": -2.464341343229444, "peer_archived_score": 11.089144516393292, "baseline_archived_score": -18.48976559585761, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.464341343229444 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1682777854.553183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1682777854.553183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.595253802033348, 0.40474619796665207 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 441, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Magnus Carlsen [declined to defend his title as World Chess Champion](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jul/20/magnus-carlsen-will-not-defend-his-world-chess-championship-title-in-2023), leaving the championship is vacant.\n\nThe International Chess Federation (FIDE) selected the winner and runner-up of the [2022 Candidates Tournament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2022), Ian Nepomniachtchi and Ding Liren, to compete to be the next World Chess Champion.\n\nDing Liren narrowly secured a qualifying spot with a [final-round win](https://www.chess.com/events/2022-fide-candidates-chess-tournament/14/Ding_Liren-Nakamura_Hikaru).\n\nIan Nepomniachtchi [won the Candidates Tournament without a single loss](https://www.fide.com/news/1847). \n\nThe two men will [compete for the title](https://www.fide.com/news/2180) in Astana, the capital city of Kazakhstan, from starting on April 7th through May 1st." }, { "id": 14831, "title": "Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "NATO Article 5 Action Before 2024", "url_title": "NATO Article 5 Action Before 2024", "slug": "nato-article-5-action-before-2024", "author_id": 125547, "author_username": "rob.louis", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-26T05:01:02.819690Z", "published_at": "2023-02-04T19:43:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.956954Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-04T19:43:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": 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"is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14831, "title": "Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-26T05:01:02.819690Z", "open_time": "2023-02-04T19:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-06T16:26:53.576707Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-06T16:26:53.576707Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Article 5](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Parties%20agree%20that%20an,by%20Article%2051%20of%20the) of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' \"collective self defense\":\n\n> “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.\n\n> Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”\n\nArticle 5 action was taken for the first and only time after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the US. NATO Secretary General, Lord Robertson, [issued a statement on September 12, 2001](https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/0910/e0912a.htm) that the attack would be covered under Article 5 if it was confirmed that the attack was directed from abroad, which was [affirmed on October 2, 2001](https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/1001/e1002a.htm). This resulted in the deployment of an international anti-terrorism task force to Afghanistan.\n\nFurther reading can be found [on NATO's website](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after February 1, 2023 and before January 1, 2024, the North Atlantic Council publicly affirms that there has been an attack on a NATO member country which is regarded as an action covered by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14831, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703979950.387546, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703979950.387546, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.009360079111615823 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.039956350194776, 3.9658914750005434, 0.2975905898318838, 0.25642275218081034, 0.06403462753668368, 0.5598100282039468, 0.007414948227486167, 0.00031196504298956556, 0.011256236138329163, 0.0, 0.0007096313110553183, 0.0, 0.016545052352399333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042868757277762825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2559445202227483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010689465272835212, 0.0, 0.00020616515635595665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005604149981838148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.983401787752633, "coverage": 0.9997447664015102, "baseline_score": 96.37905659452643, "spot_peer_score": 5.2419792364128455, "peer_archived_score": 4.983401787752633, "baseline_archived_score": 96.37905659452643, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.2419792364128455 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008221.217493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008221.217493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 227, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Article 5](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Parties%20agree%20that%20an,by%20Article%2051%20of%20the) of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' \"collective self defense\":\n\n> “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.\n\n> Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”\n\nArticle 5 action was taken for the first and only time after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the US. NATO Secretary General, Lord Robertson, [issued a statement on September 12, 2001](https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/0910/e0912a.htm) that the attack would be covered under Article 5 if it was confirmed that the attack was directed from abroad, which was [affirmed on October 2, 2001](https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/1001/e1002a.htm). This resulted in the deployment of an international anti-terrorism task force to Afghanistan.\n\nFurther reading can be found [on NATO's website](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm)." }, { "id": 14821, "title": "Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?", "short_title": "NYC Breaks its Record for Snowless Days", "url_title": "NYC Breaks its Record for Snowless Days", "slug": "nyc-breaks-its-record-for-snowless-days", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-24T22:22:07.439543Z", "published_at": "2023-01-27T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.398273Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-27T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-01T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-03T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-03T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T13:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-27T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 14821, "title": "Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?", "created_at": "2023-01-24T22:22:07.439543Z", "open_time": "2023-01-27T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-27T18:43:51.882715Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-27T18:43:51.882715Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-03T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T13:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-01T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-03T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-01T13:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It has been a [snowless winter in New York City](https://www.nymetroweather.com/2023/01/21/nyc-approaching-record-breaking-snowless-start-to-winter/). The city last saw measurable snowfall (defined as at least 0.1 inches) on March 9, 2022. As of January 24th, 2023, that is [321 days without snow](https://twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/1618007717603606537?cxt=HHwWkoDUucrcqPQsAAAA), the [second-longest snowless streak on record](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/23/nyregion/new-york-snow-rain-winter.html#:~:text=New%20York%20is%20also%20approaching,.%2018%2DDec.%2015.).\n\nThe [all time record for New York City is 332 days without snow, which happened for the period ending December 15th, 2020](https://twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/1617649490911170580?s=20&t=5gSTQ8uZmAHHXVvdFL4asA).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"No\" if there is measurable snowfall at Central Park ([KNYC weather station](https://w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/KNYC.xml)) at any point between the question's launch and the end of the day on February 4th, 2023. We will rely on [New York Metro Weather](https://www.nymetroweather.com/) to supply information about snowfall in Central Park.\n\nThis question will resolve as \"Yes\" if either the *New York Times* or [New York Metro Weather](https://www.nymetroweather.com/) report, via their websites or [Twitter accounts](https://twitter.com/nymetrowx), that New York City has broken the record for most days without measurable snowfall.\n\nIf there is uncertainty about the resolution, we will defer to public statements from New York Metro Weather and the *New York Times*.\n\nOnly an affirmative statement that New York City has broken the record for snowless days will suffice for a positive resolution. If public statements indicate the city has tied the record, but has not broken it, then the question resolves as \"No.\" If there is no evidence of snow, but Metaculus administrators cannot find affirmative statements that the record has been broken by the time of resolution, then the question resolves as \"Ambiguous.\"\n\n*This question is part of the [Beginner Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/), a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14821, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675260268.108972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675260268.108972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.5897144033594076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8759394317132335, 0.9361882784028203, 0.0, 0.8190790998590399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036399945089534095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020262681176405166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001339079145820899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011637816435880369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04502549677106772, 0.0, 0.008334548102400622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5975707109289985, 0.0, 0.16967530267629222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7559622018772891, 0.0, 0.009894530929378758, 0.04312565778056248, 0.22675710176117747, 0.1827395575225561, 0.19873696631965945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09363333722055762, 0.02368792724304404, 0.0, 0.6222927254089794, 0.0027844015881518533, 0.3570178641360339, 0.0, 0.8123783956796735, 0.76544043598373, 0.5027964435460978, 0.7478397553237518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5213297380667985, 0.27493576634473277, 0.5453312346730353, 0.23645454387307008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9491155190417218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3949208671220719 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -6.4095763648846384, "coverage": 0.6881866532516338, "baseline_score": -61.655938853596325, "spot_peer_score": -17.46478941116095, "peer_archived_score": -6.4095763648846384, "baseline_archived_score": -61.655938853596325, "spot_peer_archived_score": -17.46478941116095 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675255209.039248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675255209.039248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8598612060387152, 0.14013879396128479 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It has been a [snowless winter in New York City](https://www.nymetroweather.com/2023/01/21/nyc-approaching-record-breaking-snowless-start-to-winter/). The city last saw measurable snowfall (defined as at least 0.1 inches) on March 9, 2022. As of January 24th, 2023, that is [321 days without snow](https://twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/1618007717603606537?cxt=HHwWkoDUucrcqPQsAAAA), the [second-longest snowless streak on record](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/23/nyregion/new-york-snow-rain-winter.html#:~:text=New%20York%20is%20also%20approaching,.%2018%2DDec.%2015.).\n\nThe [all time record for New York City is 332 days without snow, which happened for the period ending December 15th, 2020](https://twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/1617649490911170580?s=20&t=5gSTQ8uZmAHHXVvdFL4asA)." }, { "id": 14699, "title": "Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?", "short_title": "Zimbabwe Elections 2023", "url_title": "Zimbabwe Elections 2023", "slug": "zimbabwe-elections-2023", "author_id": 134734, "author_username": "rezendi", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-23T17:30:31.972759Z", "published_at": "2023-01-30T00:33:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.148149Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-30T00:33:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-30T00:33:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14699, "title": "Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?", "created_at": "2023-01-23T17:30:31.972759Z", "open_time": "2023-01-30T00:33:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-01T00:33:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-01T00:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Zimbabwe is scheduled to hold general elections [in 2023](https://www.eisa.org/calendar2023.php). The current president, [Emmerson Mnangagwa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmerson_Mnangagwa), represents the [ZANU-PF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZANU%E2%80%93PF) party, which has ruled Zimbabwe since independence in 1980. Mnangagwa only narrowly avoided a runoff vote in the [disputed election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Zimbabwean_general_election) that brought him to power in 2018. He is expected to run for re-election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the president of Zimbabwe, as of midnight local time on December 31, 2023, is a member and representative of the ZANU-PF party.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the president of Zimbabwe, as of midnight local time on December 31, 2023, is not a member of the ZANU-PF party.", "fine_print": "We will determine the political party of the sitting president by consulting this [list of political parties in Zimbabwe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_political_parties_in_Zimbabwe).\n\nThere exist scenarios wherein \"president\" is imprecise -- for instance, a person could be the de facto leader but not internationally recognized as president. \n\nIn case of such imprecision, we will consider:\n\n- The individual listed in the [CIA World Factbook](https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/zimbabwe/#government) as Zimbabwe's head of state.\n- The individual listed by the State of Zimbabwe as occupying the [Office of President](http://www.theopc.gov.zw/).\n\nIf both the CIA World Factbook and the official government website list the same individual, then the question will resolve based on their party membership.\n\nIf there is disagreement between these sources, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nThe question will also resolve ambiguously if the Office of the President is vacant at midnight December 31, 2023 or if the Office of the President of Zimbabwe no longer exists.", "post_id": 14699, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703965164.20743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703965164.20743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9808273084835536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.07676290664954911, 0.4661221835112667, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 7.866639982554992 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.5470724854344083, "coverage": 0.8749884381719767, "baseline_score": 81.96749685164295, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.5470724854344083, "baseline_archived_score": 81.96749685164295, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008373.081141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008373.081141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.004182725856173963, 0.995817274143826 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Zimbabwe is scheduled to hold general elections [in 2023](https://www.eisa.org/calendar2023.php). The current president, [Emmerson Mnangagwa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmerson_Mnangagwa), represents the [ZANU-PF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ZANU%E2%80%93PF) party, which has ruled Zimbabwe since independence in 1980. Mnangagwa only narrowly avoided a runoff vote in the [disputed election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Zimbabwean_general_election) that brought him to power in 2018. He is expected to run for re-election." }, { "id": 14664, "title": "Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?", "short_title": "100 US/German Tanks to Ukraine by 2024", "url_title": "100 US/German Tanks to Ukraine by 2024", "slug": "100-usgerman-tanks-to-ukraine-by-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-22T07:29:50.127466Z", "published_at": "2023-01-24T19:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.367504Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-24T19:30:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-08T03:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-08T03:41:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-24T19:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14664, "title": "Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-22T07:29:50.127466Z", "open_time": "2023-01-24T19:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-24T22:16:35.390489Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-24T22:16:35.390489Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-08T03:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-08T03:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-08T03:41:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14413/nato-tanks-to-ukraine-by-2024/)\n\n---\n\nNATO countries have sent a variety of military equipment to Ukraine in support of its defence against the Russian invasion. This includes drones such as the [Bayraktar TB2](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-turkish-baykar-tb2-drone-gave-ukraine-edge-against-russia-2022-9?r=US&IR=T), anti-tank weapons like the [NLAW](https://defbrief.com/2022/04/28/uk-speeds-up-nlaw-purchases-after-missile-deliveries-to-ukraine/), artillery and long-range rocket systems like the [HIMARS](https://time.com/6244479/himars-rockets-ukraine-russia/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20has%20supplied%20at,HIMARS%20rockets%20provided%20to%20Ukraine.), and air-defence systems like the [Patriot](https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/patriot-missiles-to-ukraine-us-regaining-escalation-dominance/#:~:text=The%20addition%20of%20the%20Patriot,heights%20up%20to%2079%2C000ft.) systems.\n\nPoland has also sent over 200 Soviet-designed [T-72]( https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-04-29/card/poland-has-sent-more-than-200-tanks-to-ukraine-Krwar3DCPzHJJk4UMVh4#:~:text=The%20T%2D72%20tanks%20were,benefactor%20within%20the%20European%20Union.) main battle tanks. However, Ukraine has reiterated its request for modern/NATO main battle tanks. Main battle tanks (MBTs) are armored fighting vehicles designed for front-line combat, characterized by heavy armor, high mobility, and powerful armament. NATO MBTs are generally considered to be some of the best in the world.\n\nSo far, the United Kingdom has committed 14 [Challeneger 2](https://news.usni.org/2023/01/17/u-k-sending-14-challenger-2-tanks-ammo-to-ukraine-foreign-minister-says#:~:text=The%20U.K.%20is%20sending%2014,s%20foreign%20minister%20said%20Tuesday.) to Ukraine. However, this number is likely to be too low, as experts have estimated Ukraine to need [at least 100](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/16/ukraine-will-need-more-tanks-if-it-is-to-make-breakthrough) of such modern main battle tanks. This makes the US-made [Abrams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams) and the German-made [Leopard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2) the primary candidates, as there are large numbers available throughout Europe (in the case of the Leopard 2) and the US. \n\nWhile some countries in possession of Leopard 2 MBTs have said they wanted to send them to Ukraine, Germany holds the [license](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/21/what-is-stopping-the-supply-of-german-made-leopard-2-tanks) to these tanks, such that no transfer can happen without German consent. As of [22 Jan, 2023](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/19/politics/us-germany-ukraine-tanks-weapons/index.html), the German government has indicated that they will not send Leopard tanks or allow transfer of them without the US also agreeing to send its M1 Abrams tanks, which the US has so far not done.\n\nIf this diplomatic stalemate is overcome, NATO countries may be able to supply Ukraine with many more NATO MBTs compared to the 14 that the UK has currently committed, potentially providing Ukraine with the [heavy armour needed](https://www.army-technology.com/news/heavy-armour-needed-to-break-battlefield-deadlock-in-ukraine/) for the anticipated spring offensive.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) shows that countries have announced a cumulative commitment of 100 or more US or German-made modern main tanks. These are (including variations): Abrams and Leopard.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if a total commitment of 100 or more such tanks is not reported before January 1, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14664, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675910062.400032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675910062.400032, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9336008094182645 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008588258383183861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001154680008281835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8390097785885875, 0.0, 0.16714435327428795, 0.7541212514821088, 0.0, 0.10886246125459637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1364375063929801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08051922512904255, 0.0, 1.8757905163421233, 0.2270818060097215, 0.49988553484328224, 0.0, 0.045779439086610973, 0.6723329722028819, 0.006737946999085467, 0.06035923883635743, 1.3506256444964673, 8.670352652258972 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.2500763029370266, "coverage": 0.04209356545703782, "baseline_score": 4.095335803905762, "spot_peer_score": -14.533766822836467, "peer_archived_score": 0.2500763029370266, "baseline_archived_score": 4.095335803905762, "spot_peer_archived_score": -14.533766822836467 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675755552.396208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675755552.396208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.02972879098596648, 0.9702712090140335 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14413/nato-tanks-to-ukraine-by-2024/)\n\n---\n\nNATO countries have sent a variety of military equipment to Ukraine in support of its defence against the Russian invasion. This includes drones such as the [Bayraktar TB2](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-turkish-baykar-tb2-drone-gave-ukraine-edge-against-russia-2022-9?r=US&IR=T), anti-tank weapons like the [NLAW](https://defbrief.com/2022/04/28/uk-speeds-up-nlaw-purchases-after-missile-deliveries-to-ukraine/), artillery and long-range rocket systems like the [HIMARS](https://time.com/6244479/himars-rockets-ukraine-russia/#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20has%20supplied%20at,HIMARS%20rockets%20provided%20to%20Ukraine.), and air-defence systems like the [Patriot](https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/patriot-missiles-to-ukraine-us-regaining-escalation-dominance/#:~:text=The%20addition%20of%20the%20Patriot,heights%20up%20to%2079%2C000ft.) systems.\n\nPoland has also sent over 200 Soviet-designed [T-72]( https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-04-29/card/poland-has-sent-more-than-200-tanks-to-ukraine-Krwar3DCPzHJJk4UMVh4#:~:text=The%20T%2D72%20tanks%20were,benefactor%20within%20the%20European%20Union.) main battle tanks. However, Ukraine has reiterated its request for modern/NATO main battle tanks. Main battle tanks (MBTs) are armored fighting vehicles designed for front-line combat, characterized by heavy armor, high mobility, and powerful armament. NATO MBTs are generally considered to be some of the best in the world.\n\nSo far, the United Kingdom has committed 14 [Challeneger 2](https://news.usni.org/2023/01/17/u-k-sending-14-challenger-2-tanks-ammo-to-ukraine-foreign-minister-says#:~:text=The%20U.K.%20is%20sending%2014,s%20foreign%20minister%20said%20Tuesday.) to Ukraine. However, this number is likely to be too low, as experts have estimated Ukraine to need [at least 100](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/16/ukraine-will-need-more-tanks-if-it-is-to-make-breakthrough) of such modern main battle tanks. This makes the US-made [Abrams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams) and the German-made [Leopard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2) the primary candidates, as there are large numbers available throughout Europe (in the case of the Leopard 2) and the US. \n\nWhile some countries in possession of Leopard 2 MBTs have said they wanted to send them to Ukraine, Germany holds the [license](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/21/what-is-stopping-the-supply-of-german-made-leopard-2-tanks) to these tanks, such that no transfer can happen without German consent. As of [22 Jan, 2023](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/19/politics/us-germany-ukraine-tanks-weapons/index.html), the German government has indicated that they will not send Leopard tanks or allow transfer of them without the US also agreeing to send its M1 Abrams tanks, which the US has so far not done.\n\nIf this diplomatic stalemate is overcome, NATO countries may be able to supply Ukraine with many more NATO MBTs compared to the 14 that the UK has currently committed, potentially providing Ukraine with the [heavy armour needed](https://www.army-technology.com/news/heavy-armour-needed-to-break-battlefield-deadlock-in-ukraine/) for the anticipated spring offensive." }, { "id": 14657, "title": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?", "short_title": "DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election?", "url_title": "DPP wins 2024 Taiwanese election?", "slug": "dpp-wins-2024-taiwanese-election", "author_id": 112976, "author_username": "InquilineKea", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-21T13:20:07.254098Z", "published_at": "2023-01-31T04:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.640598Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-31T04:23:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-01T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T02:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T02:42:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-31T04:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14657, "title": "Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?", "created_at": "2023-01-21T13:20:07.254098Z", "open_time": "2023-01-31T04:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-02T04:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-02T04:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T02:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T02:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T02:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-01T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 16th President and Vice President election of the Republic of China is scheduled to be held in Taiwan in early 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election). Incumbent President [Tsai Ing-wen](https://english.president.gov.tw/Page/40) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was reelected in 2020, is ineligible to seek a third term. The [winner of the 2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election) is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 May 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the DPP candidate is inaugurated on 20 May 2024 (or, in the case of a delayed inauguration, is announced to have won by [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51077553) and [New York Times](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiRva34lOn8AhWYM1kFHXzCDacQFnoECBAQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2020%2F01%2F11%2Fworld%2Fasia%2Ftaiwan-election-china.html&usg=AOvVaw0DGpxtWlE6BHtzJzB97RTp)) Otherwise, including the event of a premature Chinese invasion and a toppling of the government (making an election impossible) it resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14657, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711942257.595582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711942257.595582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9593512902354985 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.004137083572762841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015061754745690714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03126931611125853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003341999642790191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007174272378120552, 0.0, 0.011077358648820076, 0.008438284300033617, 0.03626835245824943, 0.01314514673938087, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.07282588113238535, 0.0, 0.002018898677062105, 0.0, 0.010817531378978468, 0.027921591804636593, 0.05852891229315346, 0.0, 0.038896999174760465, 0.0, 0.019501694237860755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22259646624160656, 0.0, 0.18158994767008868, 0.0, 0.07791871383103789, 0.0, 0.09352845379090119, 0.0, 0.04322127578775498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06449926113694789, 0.0, 0.33905283347288273, 0.0, 0.14409911274774573, 0.0, 0.31508149791861734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.46723762873302 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.065414087590177, "coverage": 0.998513600743496, "baseline_score": 27.50268963944039, "spot_peer_score": 7.22782499742721, "peer_archived_score": 22.065414087590177, "baseline_archived_score": 27.50268963944039, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.22782499742721 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711942257.628977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711942257.628977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.017569494687393994, 0.982430505312606 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 194, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 16th President and Vice President election of the Republic of China is scheduled to be held in Taiwan in early 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election). Incumbent President [Tsai Ing-wen](https://english.president.gov.tw/Page/40) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was reelected in 2020, is ineligible to seek a third term. The [winner of the 2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election) is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 May 2024." }, { "id": 14656, "title": "Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?", "short_title": "Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?", "url_title": "Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?", "slug": "will-russia-invade-kazakhstan-before-2024", "author_id": 122711, "author_username": "3005", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-21T00:46:56.401486Z", "published_at": "2023-01-31T19:01:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.188622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-31T19:01:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-31T19:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 194, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14656, "title": "Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-21T00:46:56.401486Z", "open_time": "2023-01-31T19:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-01T08:52:16.781605Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-01T08:52:16.781605Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia and Kazakhstan have a long history of ties, with Russia exerting significant influence in the country due to their shared border - the longest in the world at 7,600km - as well as common language and economic ties. Despite this, Kazakhstan has maintained a multi-faceted diplomatic approach, selling its resources to [both Russia and China](https://tradingeconomics.com/kazakhstan/exports-by-country) while also maintaining strong ties with the European Union and the United States. The country is also a member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. When recent political transitions in Kazakhstan caused [internal tension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kazakh_unrest), Russia [provided Kazakhstan with armed assistance](https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-csto-troops-withdrawal-security/31661294.html).\n\nBut Russia's invasion of Ukraine has tested the relationship between the two nations. Kazakhstan [has not supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine](https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87652).\n\n>Against this backdrop, it’s not surprising that a hastily deleted post by former president—and now deputy chair of the Security Council—Dmitry Medvedev suggesting that after Ukraine, Moscow might turn its attention to the fate of northern Kazakhstan, was taken at face value by many people. But could Russia really enter into conflict with another of its neighbors?\n\nIn the post in question, the [Former Russian President questions Kazakhstan’s Sovereignty.](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/former-russian-president-questions-kazakhstans-sovereignty/)\n\n>In this century Kazakhstani authorities implemented resettlement policies of various ethnic groups inside the republic, which can be qualified as the genocide of Russians. And we do not intend to turn a blind eye to this. There will be no order until the Russians get there.\n\nThis rhetoric has led some observers to wonder, [after Ukraine, is Kazakhstan next in the Kremlin’s sights?](https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87652)\n\n>The key factor here, though, is that Medvedev’s post simply transferred the same logic that it is applying to Ukraine to its relations with Kazakhstan. If the Kremlin sees that logic as being sufficient to justify a military invasion, what is to stop it doing the same in other former Soviet republics? For now, Moscow sees Kazakhstan as a friendly regime, but Russia’s criteria for friendship are becoming ever more amorphous. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 28, 2023 and before January 1, 2024, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Kazakhstan, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Kazakhstan. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the specified period", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14656, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703967497.958065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 194, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703967497.958065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 194, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.004499084682694356 ], "histogram": [ [ 22.207131426642405, 3.0065567044138586, 0.018954556769476688, 0.23094538203543888, 0.622049334067233, 5.883364186819022e-05, 0.0014852238310760517, 0.0019357846529102372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18619894813514037, 0.0, 0.00030431829467718677, 8.357758409268476e-06, 0.0, 0.08351023369519285, 0.0, 0.0, 4.295296273121761e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033135889532464127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025569275049007776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.405540149017527, "coverage": 0.9997727500687748, "baseline_score": 99.01481815118103, "spot_peer_score": -1.4250214926220646, "peer_archived_score": 2.405540149017527, "baseline_archived_score": 99.01481815118103, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.4250214926220646 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008334.110489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 194, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008334.110489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 194, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 377, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia and Kazakhstan have a long history of ties, with Russia exerting significant influence in the country due to their shared border - the longest in the world at 7,600km - as well as common language and economic ties. Despite this, Kazakhstan has maintained a multi-faceted diplomatic approach, selling its resources to [both Russia and China](https://tradingeconomics.com/kazakhstan/exports-by-country) while also maintaining strong ties with the European Union and the United States. The country is also a member of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. When recent political transitions in Kazakhstan caused [internal tension](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kazakh_unrest), Russia [provided Kazakhstan with armed assistance](https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-csto-troops-withdrawal-security/31661294.html).\n\nBut Russia's invasion of Ukraine has tested the relationship between the two nations. Kazakhstan [has not supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine](https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87652).\n\n>Against this backdrop, it’s not surprising that a hastily deleted post by former president—and now deputy chair of the Security Council—Dmitry Medvedev suggesting that after Ukraine, Moscow might turn its attention to the fate of northern Kazakhstan, was taken at face value by many people. But could Russia really enter into conflict with another of its neighbors?\n\nIn the post in question, the [Former Russian President questions Kazakhstan’s Sovereignty.](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/former-russian-president-questions-kazakhstans-sovereignty/)\n\n>In this century Kazakhstani authorities implemented resettlement policies of various ethnic groups inside the republic, which can be qualified as the genocide of Russians. And we do not intend to turn a blind eye to this. There will be no order until the Russians get there.\n\nThis rhetoric has led some observers to wonder, [after Ukraine, is Kazakhstan next in the Kremlin’s sights?](https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87652)\n\n>The key factor here, though, is that Medvedev’s post simply transferred the same logic that it is applying to Ukraine to its relations with Kazakhstan. If the Kremlin sees that logic as being sufficient to justify a military invasion, what is to stop it doing the same in other former Soviet republics? For now, Moscow sees Kazakhstan as a friendly regime, but Russia’s criteria for friendship are becoming ever more amorphous. " }, { "id": 14607, "title": "Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?", "short_title": "Russian Troops in Central Bakhmut by 1-27-23", "url_title": "Russian Troops in Central Bakhmut by 1-27-23", "slug": "russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-18T20:50:19.314162Z", "published_at": "2023-01-19T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.497729Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-19T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-26T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-26T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-27T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-27T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-19T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 137, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14607, "title": "Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-01-18T20:50:19.314162Z", "open_time": "2023-01-19T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-19T21:43:55.581493Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-19T21:43:55.581493Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-27T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-27T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-27T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-26T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-26T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Please note that this question is a revised version of* [*an earlier question on Bakhmut that was underspecified and resolved* ***Ambiguously***](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14460/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-20-23/). *Be sure to take note of the altered resolution criteria.*\n\n----\n\nSome 10½ months ago, on February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Their concept of operations apparently involved rapidly taking the capital, deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April, after fierce Ukrainian resistance and serious deficiencies in Russian military preparedness defeated this plan, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [continually narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused ultimately around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"Wagner Group\" private army under Yevgeny Prigozhin instead of by the regular Russian army.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was [described as an obsession for Russia](https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/russia-seems-obsessed-with-capturing-one-key-city-in-ukraine/) and a \"[meat grinder](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/28/its-a-meat-grinder-fighting-rages-in-eastern-ukraine-as-russian-forces-eye-bakhmut-a79225)\" into which its best forces were being wastefully thrown. Nonetheless, the Bakhmut offensive continued, with some analysts speculating that it was [essentially a propaganda operation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/10/21/russia-is-wasting-its-last-good-troops-in-a-pointless-attack-on-a-worthless-town/?sh=369e7177351d) designed to provide Russian President Putin with a \"victory\" to offset mounting defeats, or even [motivated by Prigozhin's personal financial interests.](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-8-2023)\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news), where Ukrainian officials [acknowledged the situation was \"difficult.\"](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-strikes-bakhmut-donbas-constant-attacks/32215218.html) As of January 10th, there were [competing claims about whether Soledar had fallen or would fall,](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news) and whether this portended a larger Ukrainian defeat over the coming days.", "resolution_criteria": "Central Bakhmut is defined as the area inside the orange dashed line on this map:\n\n<img src=\"https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/bakhmut.jpeg\"/>\n\nThe sole authoritative source for defining areas of Russian control will be the areas of \"assessed Russian advances\" published in the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap). For the purposes of resolution, *any* \"assessed Russian advances\" or control (colored in red) within the area defined on the map above will result in the question resolving as **Yes**. \n\nIf ISW does not assess any Russian advances within the indicated area, the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nISW also indicates \"claimed Russian control over Ukrainian territory.\" For resolution purposes, claimed control *is not sufficient*; only assessed Russian advances and assessed Russian control will trigger an affirmative resolution.\n\nWe will resolve based on the last ISW map titled \"Assessed Control of Terrain in Ukraine\" as of resolution time.", "fine_print": "* This question closes at midnight Ukraine time on January 27th, but does not resolve until 6:00 am Ukraine time on Saturday, January 28th, 2023 (which is the same as 11pm Eastern on January 27th, 2023) to allow for delayed reporting. \n* Because Russian troops could be reported in the city center *before* close time, the question might not be open for the full scheduled time.", "post_id": 14607, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1674769407.121467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1674769407.121467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.047778416338828886 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.4988982500883274, 8.551548800151842, 3.0523674182807676, 1.2501467371194637, 0.1088410268942017, 0.5167190779461331, 1.1235644641557865, 0.012147561012737059, 0.0036176255982974886, 0.0, 1.5713916751150723, 0.0, 0.018918745073063244, 9.561219646711202e-05, 0.0, 0.05003759575622402, 0.3928331560961824, 0.0025795578668252835, 0.006714257916449216, 0.004983734978910091, 0.00369767284445059, 0.09789415930094204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8801031486143085, 0.004337379473476576, 0.0033302766155079025, 0.036311415115550534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02035456160309158, 0.021694596976249356, 0.5958594716056059, 0.0033220608539070197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011634523772452915, 7.723700061153951e-05, 0.0007451048304846594, 0.0, 0.018462204549880123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019087278397942286, 0.0, 0.008425464418173866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027413450000912883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019413472576667505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027471953522580513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009988875108506183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006452962997594377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.702837590893253, "coverage": 0.9999454162084417, "baseline_score": 72.42191512792252, "spot_peer_score": -22.79616485018327, "peer_archived_score": 10.702837590893253, "baseline_archived_score": 72.42191512792252, "spot_peer_archived_score": -22.79616485018327 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1674769407.13922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1674769407.13922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9981993475663922, 0.0018006524336078111 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 313, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Please note that this question is a revised version of* [*an earlier question on Bakhmut that was underspecified and resolved* ***Ambiguously***](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14460/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-20-23/). *Be sure to take note of the altered resolution criteria.*\n\n----\n\nSome 10½ months ago, on February 24th, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. Their concept of operations apparently involved rapidly taking the capital, deposing the government, and largely completing the country's conquest before Western countries could co-ordinate on a reaction. By April, after fierce Ukrainian resistance and serious deficiencies in Russian military preparedness defeated this plan, Russia [shifted focus to the Donets Basion (Donbas) region in the country's east](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukrainian-troops-risk-being-encircled-in-new-russian-offensive-1.1754033), where conditions were more favorable. [This offensive also bogged down quickly](https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-donbas-offensive-faltering-analysis/31832683.html), and Russia's offensive ambitions [continually narrowed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/24/world/europe/russia-shrinking-war-ukraine.html) into the summer until they were [focused ultimately around the town of Bakhmut](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-18), where operations were being conducted largely by the \"Wagner Group\" private army under Yevgeny Prigozhin instead of by the regular Russian army.\n\nBy fall, Bakhmut was [described as an obsession for Russia](https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/russia-seems-obsessed-with-capturing-one-key-city-in-ukraine/) and a \"[meat grinder](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/28/its-a-meat-grinder-fighting-rages-in-eastern-ukraine-as-russian-forces-eye-bakhmut-a79225)\" into which its best forces were being wastefully thrown. Nonetheless, the Bakhmut offensive continued, with some analysts speculating that it was [essentially a propaganda operation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/10/21/russia-is-wasting-its-last-good-troops-in-a-pointless-attack-on-a-worthless-town/?sh=369e7177351d) designed to provide Russian President Putin with a \"victory\" to offset mounting defeats, or even [motivated by Prigozhin's personal financial interests.](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-8-2023)\n\nOn December 20th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy [visited Bakhmut to show support for the defenders.](https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukraine-war-bakhmut-russia-sacrificing-troops-meat-waves/) On January 6th, Russia [launched a powerful assault on the adjacent town of Soledar](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news), where Ukrainian officials [acknowledged the situation was \"difficult.\"](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-strikes-bakhmut-donbas-constant-attacks/32215218.html) As of January 10th, there were [competing claims about whether Soledar had fallen or would fall,](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/09/world/russia-ukraine-news) and whether this portended a larger Ukrainian defeat over the coming days." }, { "id": 14601, "title": "Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?", "short_title": "BAS Doomsday Clock Closer to Midnight in 2023", "url_title": "BAS Doomsday Clock Closer to Midnight in 2023", "slug": "bas-doomsday-clock-closer-to-midnight-in-2023", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-17T21:24:59.534966Z", "published_at": "2023-01-20T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.542692Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-20T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": 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"name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, 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"yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/)\n\n---\nThe [Doomsday Clock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock) is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the [*Bulletin of Atomic Scientists*](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock), the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was \"seven minutes to midnight.\" The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of the *Bulletin*.\n\nThe clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict. It now includes other factors, including climate change and \"disruptive technologies.\"\n\nThe clock's setting is determined by the *Bulletin's* [Security and Science Board](https://thebulletin.org/about-us/science-and-security-board/).\n\nIn January 23, 2020, the *Bulletin* moved the clock to [100 seconds to midnight](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/2020-doomsday-clock-statement/), its closest setting to midnight ever, and re-affirmed that setting in both [2021](https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-doomsday-clock-statement-1.pdf) and [2022](https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022-doomsday-clock-statement.pdf). The clock has moved [24 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock#Timeline), backwards 8 times and forwards 16 times.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the *Bulletin of Atomic Scientists* sets the Doomsday Clock to any setting fewer than 100 seconds to midnight, following the next official update. If the clock is set at or above 100 seconds to midnight, this question will resolve as **No**. \n\nAn [announcement by the *Bulletin*](https://thebulletin.org/2023/01/watch-the-2023-doomsday-clock-announcement-on-jan-24/) is expected on January 24, 2023 at 10 a.m. EST. If the *Bulletin* has no official announcement or update on the Doomsday Clock by January 25, 2023, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "In the case the clock is set to some non-real number such as a [complex](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_number) or [uncomputable](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computable_number) number, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous.**", "post_id": 14601, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1674484512.524947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1674484512.524947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.631574739275441 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16054456415221713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0965044045942807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06818282742296448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7482138062972412, 0.9040419178445486, 0.23434107129204243, 0.0, 0.88535091520456, 1.146879534386123, 1.0384548078894773, 0.25654816160742966, 0.0, 0.3952632697996375, 1.1707604091232853, 0.1314375106214734, 0.11072430464810612, 0.0, 0.06050086571808722, 1.319173386781196, 0.0, 0.3061620984667782, 0.5468132678220224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4828611605715246, 0.0, 0.0, 1.18659768170561, 0.0, 0.08577160466054211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005537830714382473, 0.0, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -2.996291099736923, "coverage": 0.9999346321043103, "baseline_score": 28.88528111163228, "spot_peer_score": -10.300573368013083, "peer_archived_score": -2.996291099736923, "baseline_archived_score": 28.88528111163228, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.300573368013083 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1674484512.542279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1674484512.542279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4439414808346782, 0.5560585191653218 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/)\n\n---\nThe [Doomsday Clock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock) is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the [*Bulletin of Atomic Scientists*](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock), the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was \"seven minutes to midnight.\" The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of the *Bulletin*.\n\nThe clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict. It now includes other factors, including climate change and \"disruptive technologies.\"\n\nThe clock's setting is determined by the *Bulletin's* [Security and Science Board](https://thebulletin.org/about-us/science-and-security-board/).\n\nIn January 23, 2020, the *Bulletin* moved the clock to [100 seconds to midnight](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/2020-doomsday-clock-statement/), its closest setting to midnight ever, and re-affirmed that setting in both [2021](https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-doomsday-clock-statement-1.pdf) and [2022](https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/2022-doomsday-clock-statement.pdf). The clock has moved [24 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock#Timeline), backwards 8 times and forwards 16 times." }, { "id": 14557, "title": "Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "US Government Shutdown Before 2024?", "url_title": "US Government Shutdown Before 2024?", "slug": "us-government-shutdown-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-16T20:52:37.265955Z", "published_at": "2023-01-21T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.375224Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-21T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-21T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 265, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14557, "title": "Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-16T20:52:37.265955Z", "open_time": "2023-01-21T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In its article [Q&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes government shutdowns as follows:\n\n>Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for FY 2023 that make up the discretionary spending budget and has instead been funding the government through a CR that was enacted at the end of September. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. Essential services continue to function, as do mandatory spending programs.\n\n>. . .\n\n>Since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, there have been 20 “funding gaps,” including the 2018-2019 shutdown and the one in January 2018, when funds were not appropriated for at least one day. (The hours-long lapse in appropriations in February 2018, though sometimes characterized as a shutdown, did not result in federal employee furloughs.) However, before 1980, the government did not shut down but rather continued normal operations through six funding gaps. Since 1981, 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred, mostly over a weekend when government operations were only minimally affected. \n>\n>There have now been four “true” shutdowns where operations were affected for more than one business day. The first two happened in the winter of 1995-1996 when President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress were unable to agree on spending levels and the government shut down twice, for a total of 26 days. The third was in 2013 when a House and Senate standoff over funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) resulted in a 16-day shutdown. The fourth shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019, technically only a partial shutdown because five of the 12 appropriations had previously been enacted, centered on a dispute over border wall funding and was the longest-lasting shutdown at 35 days.\n\nThe History, Art & Archives of the US House of Representatives [provides a list](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/) of funding gaps and whether or not they included shutdowns. The US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) maintains [information about shutdown furloughs](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#Shutdown-Furlough) as well as [shutdown contingency plans for agencies](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-for-agencies/agency-contingency-plans/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that at least some portions of the US federal government have ceased some operations or undergone \"shutdown\" as the result of a funding gap or missed funding deadline. For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14557, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075556.648256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 265, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075556.648256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 265, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.015522265919490663 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.89425320315814, 9.45853026241042, 0.4852184573109557, 0.42167995542456727, 0.4001446621805992, 0.6807309764839584, 0.0, 0.030536870094083516, 0.0005203428123833083, 0.0, 0.07243244561055234, 0.0, 0.02759692434508559, 0.001075241073566546, 0.001383054415250382, 0.0032703607815945312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022295203022362022, 0.0029135183792658435, 0.004867173696246503, 0.0007292926559945813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08328685295787579, 0.004915311804409008, 0.00424554939052745, 0.002073285903531791, 0.0, 0.02992328838484326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028047351187876754, 0.0, 0.007118948981281368, 0.0, 0.007347365067842508, 0.0002099647454408669, 4.813025374715561e-07, 0.03567021915487355, 0.005206533634321322, 0.020050449244988684, 4.592489750038871e-05, 0.004444712440545994, 0.007960229452581468, 0.01586316776497077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02827068446757471, 0.08953476190429226, 9.272988593010688e-06, 0.029570210093239853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012474509675892156, 0.02262217635207279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016996060500090022, 0.0002873578681951879, 0.0, 0.008550565657909799, 0.0, 0.013858997807447686, 0.01846788154044432, 0.015469175082657938, 0.00906818002903928, 0.0, 0.03404205405968216, 0.0, 0.0019715308141308274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019216012383752013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.69117461863813e-05, 0.0, 0.000366240502115775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015694186165832062, 0.002672183063036408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010706548986353177, 3.4353020981625245e-05, 0.000132311526358105, 0.0, 0.00010756748202698467, 2.4374663492603108e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006295216659772993 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.345763079630276, "coverage": 0.999772688854556, "baseline_score": 34.43764674303929, "spot_peer_score": 15.284377244212278, "peer_archived_score": 8.345763079630276, "baseline_archived_score": 34.43764674303929, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.284377244212278 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704075556.685505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 265, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704075556.685505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 265, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1536, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In its article [Q&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes government shutdowns as follows:\n\n>Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for FY 2023 that make up the discretionary spending budget and has instead been funding the government through a CR that was enacted at the end of September. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. Essential services continue to function, as do mandatory spending programs.\n\n>. . .\n\n>Since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, there have been 20 “funding gaps,” including the 2018-2019 shutdown and the one in January 2018, when funds were not appropriated for at least one day. (The hours-long lapse in appropriations in February 2018, though sometimes characterized as a shutdown, did not result in federal employee furloughs.) However, before 1980, the government did not shut down but rather continued normal operations through six funding gaps. Since 1981, 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred, mostly over a weekend when government operations were only minimally affected. \n>\n>There have now been four “true” shutdowns where operations were affected for more than one business day. The first two happened in the winter of 1995-1996 when President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress were unable to agree on spending levels and the government shut down twice, for a total of 26 days. The third was in 2013 when a House and Senate standoff over funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) resulted in a 16-day shutdown. The fourth shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019, technically only a partial shutdown because five of the 12 appropriations had previously been enacted, centered on a dispute over border wall funding and was the longest-lasting shutdown at 35 days.\n\nThe History, Art & Archives of the US House of Representatives [provides a list](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/) of funding gaps and whether or not they included shutdowns. The US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) maintains [information about shutdown furloughs](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#Shutdown-Furlough) as well as [shutdown contingency plans for agencies](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-for-agencies/agency-contingency-plans/)." }, { "id": 14544, "title": "Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?", "short_title": "Apple Watch Blood Pressure Feature by 2025", "url_title": "Apple Watch Blood Pressure Feature by 2025", "slug": "apple-watch-blood-pressure-feature-by-2025", "author_id": 124260, "author_username": "adssx", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-14T11:41:17.915144Z", "published_at": "2023-01-31T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.767501Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-31T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T21:56:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-31T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14544, "title": "Will Apple Watch feature a blood pressure monitor before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-01-14T11:41:17.915144Z", "open_time": "2023-01-31T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-01T04:58:08.740796Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-01T04:58:08.740796Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T21:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T22:28:35.916344Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Apple reportedly wants to include [blood pressure monitoring within the Apple Watch](https://9to5mac.com/2021/09/01/apple-watch-blood-pressure-temperature-more/). Bloomberg [wrote in April 2022](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-12/apple-targets-watch-blood-pressure-feature-for-2024-after-snags?leadSource=uverify%20wall) that the feature was \"two years away from hitting the market and may slip until 2025.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Apple officially offers for sale an Apple Watch model or accessory that can measure systolic and diastolic blood pressure, or which can monitor trends in blood pressure over time, before January 1, 2025. The Watch must be available for sale on [apple.com](https://www.apple.com/watch/).\n\nThird-party apps or accessories will not be sufficient for a **Yes** resolution", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14544, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735660346.190667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735660346.190667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.15170238417538418 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.113143019758633, 1.4527325804272024, 0.4044436408528118, 0.5296608745347693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2844637239593917, 0.0, 0.13253099069011334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20962640109217362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02254434001827177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003228095225742652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05812372891257865, 0.18184291418632875, 0.2645571001306608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3281498352869308, 0.0, 0.6039843306575171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2118020448654148, 0.7434864067057302, 0.2040217933519004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05032766519653908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027247947633350568, 0.035948621565898925, 0.0015753119476699363, 0.15554853847505667, 0.0, 0.12213964696863193, 0.2768536130519084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19692413730767477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019395540998817004, 0.1361240564651131, 0.0, 0.022009360559314135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0797787163600839, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003928092025013086 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -49.22646324130571, "peer_score": 14.831510351184232, "coverage": 0.999873883469645, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999873883469645, "spot_peer_score": -4.987060132783382, "spot_baseline_score": -55.63933485243855, "baseline_archived_score": -49.22646324130571, "peer_archived_score": 14.831510351184232, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.987060132783382, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -55.63933485243855 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289417.810896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289417.810896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9847692278453766, 0.01523077215462343 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 221, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Apple reportedly wants to include [blood pressure monitoring within the Apple Watch](https://9to5mac.com/2021/09/01/apple-watch-blood-pressure-temperature-more/). Bloomberg [wrote in April 2022](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-12/apple-targets-watch-blood-pressure-feature-for-2024-after-snags?leadSource=uverify%20wall) that the feature was \"two years away from hitting the market and may slip until 2025.\"" }, { "id": 14539, "title": "Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?", "short_title": "US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index new record before 2029?", "url_title": "US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index new record before 2029?", "slug": "us-economic-policy-uncertainty-index-new-record-before-2029", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-14T06:11:10.247526Z", "published_at": "2025-02-17T13:36:57.744884Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T08:20:41.704451Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-17T13:36:57.744882Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-18T13:35:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14539, "title": "Will the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index exceed its 2020 peak before 2029?", "created_at": "2023-01-14T06:11:10.247526Z", "open_time": "2025-02-18T13:35:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-22T13:35:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-22T13:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXM) is a measure of \"policy-related economic uncertainty,\" constructed from three components:\n\n* Search results from 10 large US newspapers\n* Temporary provisions in federal tax code\n* Dispersion among forecasters in Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters\n\nFor US monthly EPUI, the highest value was 350, which occured in May 2020.\n\nThe same authors use a similar methodology to construct other indices, including a daily index for US economic policy uncertainty and monthly indices for other countries. More about the methodology can be found here: [http://www.policyuncertainty.com/us\\_monthly.html](http://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html)\n\nThe index's authors decribe EPUI formally in: [Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2015), \"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty\"](http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/BakerBloomDavis.pdf) (PDF)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any point before 2029, the value of the monthly [*Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for United States*](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXM), exceeds 350.45982.", "fine_print": "This quesiton will be **annulled** if the index ceases to be published before 2028 or if methodology substantially changes in the judgement of Metaculus.", "post_id": 14539, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758129503.639472, "end_time": 1762141122.929067, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758129503.639472, "end_time": 1762141122.929067, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7562443361195758 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5174868611555574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPUI)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USEPUINDXM) is a measure of \"policy-related economic uncertainty,\" constructed from three components:\n\n* Search results from 10 large US newspapers\n* Temporary provisions in federal tax code\n* Dispersion among forecasters in Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters\n\nFor US monthly EPUI, the highest value was 350, which occured in May 2020.\n\nThe same authors use a similar methodology to construct other indices, including a daily index for US economic policy uncertainty and monthly indices for other countries. More about the methodology can be found here: [http://www.policyuncertainty.com/us\\_monthly.html](http://www.policyuncertainty.com/us_monthly.html)\n\nThe index's authors decribe EPUI formally in: [Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis (2015), \"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty\"](http://www.policyuncertainty.com/media/BakerBloomDavis.pdf) (PDF)" }, { "id": 14535, "title": "Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?", "short_title": "Davis re-election at next ACT election", "url_title": "Davis re-election at next ACT election", "slug": "davis-re-election-at-next-act-election", "author_id": 112352, "author_username": "joel.d", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-14T00:11:39.608802Z", "published_at": "2023-01-30T17:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.301105Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-30T17:25:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-18T12:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-18T12:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-30T12:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-21T17:11:37Z", "open_time": "2023-01-30T17:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14535, "title": "Will Johnathan Davis be re-elected at the 2024 ACT election?", "created_at": "2023-01-14T00:11:39.608802Z", "open_time": "2023-01-30T17:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-01T17:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-01T17:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-30T12:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-21T17:11:37Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-21T17:11:41.576759Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-18T12:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-18T12:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Australian Capital Territory is governed by a Legislative Assembly with elections held every four years. Elections involve five multi-member electorates, each of which elects five representatives, called MLAs (Member of the Legislative Assembly). Election is through the Hare-Clark proportional representation system, more detail is [here](https://www.parliament.act.gov.au/visit-and-learn/resources/factsheets/how-members-are-elected). The next election is on 19 October 2024.\n\nJohnathan Davis was elected for the first time in 2020, running in the southern seat of Brindabella. The Greens won 10.8% of the primary vote, about 0.6 of a full quota. As other candidates were exhausted from the count Davis received enough preference flows to take the fifth spot. However, due to the vagaries of the Hare-Clark system, at a critical point in the count Davis was ahead another candidate, Werner-Gibbing, by just 82 votes. Had the voting been slightly different, Davis would not have been elected. You can review the final distribution of preferences [here](https://www.elections.act.gov.au/elections_and_voting/2020_legislative_assembly_election/distribution-of-preferences-2020).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Elections ACT declares Johnathan Davis elected for any electorate in the ACT as an outcome of the 2024 election. This holds if Davis runs for another party or as an independent. If Davis does not run the question will resolve as **No**. If no election occurs in 2024 this question resolves **Ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14535, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728600675.209942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728600675.209942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06347235721410889 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.757453309852516, 2.659339736795084, 0.5425848716903746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23578357856579013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.12369064840410346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -12.34146252989191, "peer_score": 10.891702813414124, "coverage": 0.9975443062877943, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9975443062877943, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -12.34146252989191, "peer_archived_score": 10.891702813414124, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287692.243009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287692.243009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9930261834645329, 0.006973816535467085 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Australian Capital Territory is governed by a Legislative Assembly with elections held every four years. Elections involve five multi-member electorates, each of which elects five representatives, called MLAs (Member of the Legislative Assembly). Election is through the Hare-Clark proportional representation system, more detail is [here](https://www.parliament.act.gov.au/visit-and-learn/resources/factsheets/how-members-are-elected). The next election is on 19 October 2024.\n\nJohnathan Davis was elected for the first time in 2020, running in the southern seat of Brindabella. The Greens won 10.8% of the primary vote, about 0.6 of a full quota. As other candidates were exhausted from the count Davis received enough preference flows to take the fifth spot. However, due to the vagaries of the Hare-Clark system, at a critical point in the count Davis was ahead another candidate, Werner-Gibbing, by just 82 votes. Had the voting been slightly different, Davis would not have been elected. You can review the final distribution of preferences [here](https://www.elections.act.gov.au/elections_and_voting/2020_legislative_assembly_election/distribution-of-preferences-2020)." }, { "id": 14510, "title": "Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?", "short_title": "Saudi Oil Exports in 2024", "url_title": "Saudi Oil Exports in 2024", "slug": "saudi-oil-exports-in-2024", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-13T15:42:40.625405Z", "published_at": "2023-01-27T23:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.330606Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-27T23:54:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-25T16:50:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-27T23:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14510, "title": "Will Oil Exports account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-13T15:42:40.625405Z", "open_time": "2023-01-27T23:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-29T23:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-29T23:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-25T16:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-25T18:15:01.653404Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest oil exporters, with a significant portion of its economy dependent on revenue from oil exports. However, the country has been facing increasing pressure to diversify its economy as much of the world races to decarbonise. \n\nAs a [Borgen Project report](https://borgenproject.org/economic-diversification-in-saudi-arabia/#:~:text=Saudi%20Arabia's%20Dependence%20on%20Oil%20and%20Gas&text=One%20of%20the%20focuses%20of,avenues%20like%20transportation%20and%20entertainment.) points out: \n\n> In 2016, Saudi Arabia announced a new program called Vision 2030. One of the focuses of this program is economic diversification in Saudi Arabia. Specifically, the goal is to broaden Saudi Arabia’s exports and income possibilities from oil and gas to other necessary avenues like transportation and entertainment.\n\nHowever, in Q1 2021, [71.1%](https://www.stats.gov.sa/sites/default/files/ITR%20Q12022E.pdf) of total Saudi Arabian exports were oil exports. This number increased to [78.3%](https://www.stats.gov.sa/sites/default/files/ITR%20Q12022E.pdf) in Q1 2022. According to analysis from [UK Department for International Trade](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1124431/saudi-arabia-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2022-12-19.pdf) total exports are projected to grow at double-digits in 2023, though there remains uncertainty as to the composition of exports going forward, as energy markets have been [particularly volatile](https://fortune.com/2022/11/29/starace-enel-ceo-energy-crisis-market-volatility-could-last-two-years/) since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. \n\nUnderstanding whether Saudi Arabian exports will successfully diversify away from oil may impact geopolitical, economic, and climate related projections over the next decade.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if oil exports make up less than 70% of total Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024. \n\nThis question will resolve **No** if oil exports make up at least 70% of total Saudi Arabian exports in Q1 2024. \n\nThe data relevant for this question will be drawn from the [General Authority for Statistics](https://www.stats.gov.sa/). If this data is not available, a third-party reputable source will be relied upon.", "fine_print": "Resolution date is one year after the cut-off for the relevant date to allow for publishing of accurate data.", "post_id": 14510, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703967405.033408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703967405.033408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2127721617267428 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 1.4404056122056852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.8379487954001852, 1.401095004563478, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.6980965657768824, 0.17472138726266326, 0.4935833364582557, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.5303086705320128, 0.0, 1.0301969331036727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18440518671964828, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.38723206162456447, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 48.0903540459897, "peer_score": 3.335885986407428, "coverage": 0.9998404613771579, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998404613771579, "spot_peer_score": -5.1022945719836645, "spot_baseline_score": 20.163386116965043, "baseline_archived_score": 48.0903540459897, "peer_archived_score": 3.335885986407428, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.1022945719836645, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 20.163386116965043 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008240.988539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008240.988539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9499939436052932, 0.05000605639470682 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest oil exporters, with a significant portion of its economy dependent on revenue from oil exports. However, the country has been facing increasing pressure to diversify its economy as much of the world races to decarbonise. \n\nAs a [Borgen Project report](https://borgenproject.org/economic-diversification-in-saudi-arabia/#:~:text=Saudi%20Arabia's%20Dependence%20on%20Oil%20and%20Gas&text=One%20of%20the%20focuses%20of,avenues%20like%20transportation%20and%20entertainment.) points out: \n\n> In 2016, Saudi Arabia announced a new program called Vision 2030. One of the focuses of this program is economic diversification in Saudi Arabia. Specifically, the goal is to broaden Saudi Arabia’s exports and income possibilities from oil and gas to other necessary avenues like transportation and entertainment.\n\nHowever, in Q1 2021, [71.1%](https://www.stats.gov.sa/sites/default/files/ITR%20Q12022E.pdf) of total Saudi Arabian exports were oil exports. This number increased to [78.3%](https://www.stats.gov.sa/sites/default/files/ITR%20Q12022E.pdf) in Q1 2022. According to analysis from [UK Department for International Trade](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1124431/saudi-arabia-trade-and-investment-factsheet-2022-12-19.pdf) total exports are projected to grow at double-digits in 2023, though there remains uncertainty as to the composition of exports going forward, as energy markets have been [particularly volatile](https://fortune.com/2022/11/29/starace-enel-ceo-energy-crisis-market-volatility-could-last-two-years/) since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. \n\nUnderstanding whether Saudi Arabian exports will successfully diversify away from oil may impact geopolitical, economic, and climate related projections over the next decade." }, { "id": 14509, "title": "Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?", "short_title": "Multiple Tiers of ChatGPT Before 2024", "url_title": "Multiple Tiers of ChatGPT Before 2024", "slug": "multiple-tiers-of-chatgpt-before-2024", "author_id": 118245, "author_username": "peter_m", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-13T15:39:41.988313Z", "published_at": "2023-01-19T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.964784Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-19T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-19T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T04:28:08.227330Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", 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"description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14509, "title": "Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-01-13T15:39:41.988313Z", "open_time": "2023-01-19T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-21T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-14T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI has been working on developing and improving language models for many years. They have released several versions of their [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#GPT) (Generative Pre-training) language model, starting with GPT in 2018 and followed by GPT-2 in 2019 and GPT-3 in 2020. These models have been designed to generate human-like text and have been used in a variety of applications, such as language translation, text summarization, and conversation generation.\n\n[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) launched in December 2022 with an open web interface that requires signing in. They [claim to have reached more than 1 million users](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208) within the first 5 days. However, [running it is costly and an \"experimental\" paid version was announced recently](https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/11/23549821/openai-professional-experimental-paid-version-waitlist-monetization). This version promises to be \n>“always available,” offer “fast responses” with no throttling, and give users “at least” twice the daily number of answers compared to the free version of the chatbot.\n\nBut a sufficiently patient user of the free version could still enjoy everything ChatGPT has to offer, so we ask whether this will change:", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are at least two versions of ChatGPT publicly available simultaneously at any time before January 1st, 2024 and these versions are claimed to have different capabilities—not including increased speed, reduced down-time, or relaxed limits on the number of requests. Paid versions will be considered to be \"publicly available\". The capabilities difference must be acknowledged by OpenAI to qualify, perceived differences in capabilities are not sufficient.\n\nThis question resolves as **Ambiguous** if ChatGPT ceases to be accessible to the public and as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "Hypothetical scenario: OpenAI keeps the free version and launches a paid version. \n\n* They announce that the paid version gives better answers because they allocate more compute to it, not because of any architectural changes/additional training. In this hypothetical scenario this question would resolve as **Yes**. \n* If, however, the only benefit is improved accessibility or speed, this question would resolve as **No**. \n* If no announcement is made about a difference in capabilities between the two versions this would resolve as **No**.\n\nChatGPT is still considered to be \"publicly available\" even if\n\n* it is rebranded under a different name/with a slightly different interface, but essentially the same functionality (e.g. an iPhone app, only in Bing search, …),\n* it ceases to be available _for free_, but paid versions are offered.", "post_id": 14509, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678868895.865385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678868895.865385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8929404503810431 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020354001336032917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04031214257072945, 0.0, 0.26194687755965873, 0.002007023398223986, 0.0, 0.09905073698188505, 0.23072242730151374, 0.11375304978384623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4175317582655999, 0.0, 0.1333270524573957, 0.05830676146779022, 0.15521743293521986, 1.2946733345008739, 0.05909205305645175, 0.01744285986675472, 0.04559318956273326, 1.0970663802570857, 0.0, 0.13178664930837544, 0.16106653414689315, 0.0, 1.261961198983248, 1.2835329155220574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05771699504164168, 0.2978686829232104, 1.7769039206222281, 0.17659841324481915, 1.4686965176953006, 0.0, 2.2564289386596643 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.5969465964236353, "coverage": 0.1572735024628474, "baseline_score": 11.823818814136308, "spot_peer_score": 16.494338118725764, "peer_archived_score": 1.5969465964236353, "baseline_archived_score": 11.823818814136308, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.494338118725764 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1678779560.94056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1678779560.94056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.149033024116768, 0.850966975883232 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI has been working on developing and improving language models for many years. They have released several versions of their [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#GPT) (Generative Pre-training) language model, starting with GPT in 2018 and followed by GPT-2 in 2019 and GPT-3 in 2020. These models have been designed to generate human-like text and have been used in a variety of applications, such as language translation, text summarization, and conversation generation.\n\n[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) launched in December 2022 with an open web interface that requires signing in. They [claim to have reached more than 1 million users](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208) within the first 5 days. However, [running it is costly and an \"experimental\" paid version was announced recently](https://www.theverge.com/2023/1/11/23549821/openai-professional-experimental-paid-version-waitlist-monetization). This version promises to be \n>“always available,” offer “fast responses” with no throttling, and give users “at least” twice the daily number of answers compared to the free version of the chatbot.\n\nBut a sufficiently patient user of the free version could still enjoy everything ChatGPT has to offer, so we ask whether this will change:" } ] }
