Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3480
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3500", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3460", "results": [ { "id": 14396, "title": "Will \"All Quiet on the Western Front\" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?", "short_title": "Will \"All Quiet on the Western Front\" win?", "url_title": "Will \"All Quiet on the Western Front\" win?", "slug": "will-all-quiet-on-the-western-front-win", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-05T03:53:06.448380Z", "published_at": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.487446Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-05T18:41:01.200403Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-11T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-11T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-11T04:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-11T04:48:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 14396, "title": "Will \"All Quiet on the Western Front\" win Best Picture - Non-English Language at the 2023 Golden Globe Awards?", "created_at": "2023-01-05T03:53:06.448380Z", "open_time": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-06T00:53:47.098840Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-06T00:53:47.098840Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-11T04:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-11T04:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-11T04:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-11T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-11T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 80th Annual Golden Globe Awards will be held on January 10th, 2023.\n\nFive films have been nominated in the category **Best Picture - Non-English Language**:\n\n- [*All Quiet on the Western Front*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_Quiet_on_the_Western_Front_(2022_film)) (Germany)\n- [*Argentina, 1985*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentina,_1985) (Argentina)\n- [*Close*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Close_(2022_film)) (Belgium)\n- [*Decision to Leave*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_to_Leave) (South Korea)\n- [*RRR*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RRR_(film)) (India)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if *All Quiet on the Western Front* wins the Golden Globe for Best Picture - Non-English Language, as reported by the [Golden Globe Awards](https://www.goldenglobes.com/winners-nominees/best-motion-picture-foreign-language). \n\nThis question resolves as **No** if another film wins the Golden Globe for Best Picture - Non-English Language, or if no award is given in the category", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14396, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673395191.240709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673395191.240709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2794270139467498 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04045343748023124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050682898931823745, 0.06053379569544347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8563915228128637, 0.0, 0.3526895096007895, 0.0, 0.5357567371518652, 1.3985363572310157, 1.2994571322242043, 0.4288381006607423, 0.6907120441102532, 1.423411426855397, 1.3450102636909238, 0.01550759793289652, 0.8894421836888842, 0.5319418583265129, 0.02405118580334803, 2.6769248601382234, 0.0, 0.09408648451053538, 0.012879116712703483, 0.0, 0.18330600017986862, 0.9136665487626595, 0.206029236218655, 0.2688640649614296, 0.5116406107116429, 0.9827587919987164, 0.0, 0.020739454433406367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3635257288472902, 0.24638014292610064, 0.5867143632968327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026156677666015777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7999626074538544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026668637948713955 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.401225621210411, "coverage": 0.9810129254839073, "baseline_score": 55.78137532259278, "spot_peer_score": 59.340825623572904, "peer_archived_score": 10.401225621210411, "baseline_archived_score": 55.78137532259278, "spot_peer_archived_score": 59.340825623572904 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673395191.259652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673395191.259652, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9113127986258527, 0.08868720137414733 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 80th Annual Golden Globe Awards will be held on January 10th, 2023.\n\nFive films have been nominated in the category **Best Picture - Non-English Language**:\n\n- [*All Quiet on the Western Front*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_Quiet_on_the_Western_Front_(2022_film)) (Germany)\n- [*Argentina, 1985*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentina,_1985) (Argentina)\n- [*Close*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Close_(2022_film)) (Belgium)\n- [*Decision to Leave*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_to_Leave) (South Korea)\n- [*RRR*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RRR_(film)) (India)" }, { "id": 14389, "title": "Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?", "short_title": "2022 core CPI-U to exceed 6%", "url_title": "2022 core CPI-U to exceed 6%", "slug": "2022-core-cpi-u-to-exceed-6", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-04T23:33:49.872177Z", "published_at": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.718210Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-05T18:41:54.666483Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-12T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-12T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-12T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-12T13:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 120, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2064, "type": "question_series", "name": "🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰", "slug": "Q12023-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Untitled_design.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2023-04-04T21:38:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:32:26.626350Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14389, "title": "Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?", "created_at": "2023-01-04T23:33:49.872177Z", "open_time": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-06T00:35:06.525600Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-06T00:35:06.525600Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-12T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-01-12T13:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-01-12T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-12T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-12T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the United States, the most popular measure of inflation and deflation is the [Consumer Price Index](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp), calculated each month by the federal government's [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) as a weighted average of measured real-world prices for a \"basket\" of goods and services representative of consumer spending across the entire national economy.\n\nOften, the so-called \"core\" CPI is preferred, which excludes food and energy prices from the basket on the grounds that these prices are especially volatile and unrepresentative of the longer-term inflation level that the Federal Reserve targets. \n\nThe highest core CPI ever measured in a calendar year was 12.4% for 1980; with only one month of CPI statistics left to go, it is widely expected that 2022 will register the highest core CPI inflation since the early 1980s, exceeding the 5.0% peak in 1990 and coming in at roughly 6%.\n\n[Bloomberg News notes](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/what-to-expect-in-the-last-cpi-report-of-2022-and-the-year-ahead) that:\n\n> The path of US inflation in 2023 may have more surprises in store after a year in which consumers suffered the biggest cost-of-living hit in 40 years, spurring steep interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and spooking investors.\n\nThe complete history of core CPI since 1958 can be viewed at CoinNews's [US Inflation Calendar website.](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/united-states-core-inflation-rates/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the year-on-year change in the non-seasonally-adjusted, core, United States Consumer Price Index, measured from December 2021 to December 2022, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday, January 12th, 2023.\n\nIf this figure exceeds exactly 6%, the question will resolve **Yes**. If it is exactly 6% or less, the question will resolve **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14389, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673527487.366358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12231308514714766 ], "centers": [ 0.19372136918101018 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673527487.366358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12231308514714766 ], "centers": [ 0.19372136918101018 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8062786308189898, 0.19372136918101018 ], "means": [ 0.19931618749595398 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.006484300268705211, 0.0, 0.4693473703713836, 0.0, 0.0013257689227850699, 0.0, 1.8191383753778096, 0.0, 0.0, 2.143119285129364, 0.5891535765570074, 0.6901492698789155, 0.8786757269615018, 0.32316309151584366, 1.4149205127204734, 1.1427952793774092, 0.0, 0.1750744894509452, 0.6272797482460297, 1.6190454417622213, 0.4056268666468474, 1.1759280935125322, 1.3179116183850006, 1.1042417712261237, 0.06461248783000009, 0.0002957417279138486, 0.0, 0.5750819734868899, 0.0, 0.5110426891180969, 0.27652725131800765, 0.0, 0.00016355141166769414, 0.8408444031350117, 0.5211357819639075, 0.2759939752468962, 0.6066175186306054, 0.026635169276261056, 0.0028642989982272903, 0.5487240297941582, 0.058792356847911655, 0.0017089511569673295, 0.001216459774363555, 0.0008405384968067502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07080488473818264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004577113190780465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.88012459426455e-05, 0.0, 0.005955147810394241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005584477293535452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01140491984081314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007051949679527717, 0.0, 4.75156631808755e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09575107052590096 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.115234048237753, "coverage": 0.9851384497678214, "baseline_score": 50.64989466634363, "spot_peer_score": 38.346974964436505, "peer_archived_score": 18.115234048237753, "baseline_archived_score": 50.64989466634363, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.346974964436505 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1673527487.386104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1673527487.386104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 120, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9514613227638914, 0.04853867723610863 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 198, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the United States, the most popular measure of inflation and deflation is the [Consumer Price Index](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumerpriceindex.asp), calculated each month by the federal government's [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) as a weighted average of measured real-world prices for a \"basket\" of goods and services representative of consumer spending across the entire national economy.\n\nOften, the so-called \"core\" CPI is preferred, which excludes food and energy prices from the basket on the grounds that these prices are especially volatile and unrepresentative of the longer-term inflation level that the Federal Reserve targets. \n\nThe highest core CPI ever measured in a calendar year was 12.4% for 1980; with only one month of CPI statistics left to go, it is widely expected that 2022 will register the highest core CPI inflation since the early 1980s, exceeding the 5.0% peak in 1990 and coming in at roughly 6%.\n\n[Bloomberg News notes](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-12/what-to-expect-in-the-last-cpi-report-of-2022-and-the-year-ahead) that:\n\n> The path of US inflation in 2023 may have more surprises in store after a year in which consumers suffered the biggest cost-of-living hit in 40 years, spurring steep interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and spooking investors.\n\nThe complete history of core CPI since 1958 can be viewed at CoinNews's [US Inflation Calendar website.](https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/united-states-core-inflation-rates/)" }, { "id": 14364, "title": "Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?", "short_title": "Influenza B/Yamagata Eradication", "url_title": "Influenza B/Yamagata Eradication", "slug": "influenza-byamagata-eradication", "author_id": 120344, "author_username": "dtark", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-01-03T01:44:48.835059Z", "published_at": "2023-01-14T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T13:26:01.222032Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-14T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-01-14T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14364, "title": "Will wild influenza B/Yamagata be declared eradicated before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-01-03T01:44:48.835059Z", "open_time": "2023-01-14T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-15T16:06:15.215286Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-15T16:06:15.215286Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic led to worldwide handwashing, masking, social distancing, and lockdowns. Although this was designed to prevent the spread of COVID-19, it affected many other viruses as well, essentially preventing the 2020-2021 flu season. It may have even eradicated a strain of flu: [wild influenza B/Yamagata has not been definitively seen anywhere in the world since April 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/covid-may-have-pushed-a-leading-seasonal-flu-strain-to-extinction/).\n\nHowever, there have been [sporadic cases of influenza B/Yamagata as recently as October 2022](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZTkyODcyOTEtZjA5YS00ZmI0LWFkZGUtODIxNGI5OTE3YjM0IiwidCI6ImY2MTBjMGI3LWJkMjQtNGIzOS04MTBiLTNkYzI4MGFmYjU5MCIsImMiOjh9); it's unknown whether these are wild or vaccine derived.\n\nIn 1980, [the World Health Organization (WHO) declared smallpox eradicated](https://www.who.int/health-topics/smallpox#tab=tab_1). At present, this is the only infectious disease to be eradicated in humans (an animal disease, rinderpest, [was declared eradicated in 2011](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1223805#:~:text=Rinderpest%20was%20declared%20eradicated%20by,ever%20to%20be%20globally%20eradicated.)) Typically, the WHO waits some number of years without seeing a wild case to declare a disease eradicated -- the last known smallpox case was in 1977 (3 years prior to announcing it was eradicated); for rinderpest, it was 2003 (8 years).\n\nThe WHO has also declared two strains of wild polio to be eradicated, [most recently in 2019](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated). (Note that vaccine-derived cases of these strains of polio [continue to circulate](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/).)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, any of the World Health Organization (WHO), European Medicines Agency (EMA), or US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announces that the influenza B/Yamagata strain has been eradicated. A synonym such as \"extinct\" also qualifies, as does an announcement that wild influenza B/Yamagata has been eradicated , even if there are still vaccine-derived cases. If no such announcement occurs this resolves as **No** before January 1, 2030. If one of these agencies declares it eradicated and another wild case subsequently appears, this still resolves as **Yes**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14364, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757942750.677929, "end_time": 1759778800.498149, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.297 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757942750.677929, "end_time": 1759778800.498149, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.297 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7030000000000001, 0.297 ], "means": [ 0.29589221282626316 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11805427025014043, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2949056114524586, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5169296595042654, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.6091619622184999, 0.661201087247179, 0.08517259963641256, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287689.435744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287689.435744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8344093968874611, 0.1655906031125389 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The COVID-19 pandemic led to worldwide handwashing, masking, social distancing, and lockdowns. Although this was designed to prevent the spread of COVID-19, it affected many other viruses as well, essentially preventing the 2020-2021 flu season. It may have even eradicated a strain of flu: [wild influenza B/Yamagata has not been definitively seen anywhere in the world since April 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/covid-may-have-pushed-a-leading-seasonal-flu-strain-to-extinction/).\n\nHowever, there have been [sporadic cases of influenza B/Yamagata as recently as October 2022](https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZTkyODcyOTEtZjA5YS00ZmI0LWFkZGUtODIxNGI5OTE3YjM0IiwidCI6ImY2MTBjMGI3LWJkMjQtNGIzOS04MTBiLTNkYzI4MGFmYjU5MCIsImMiOjh9); it's unknown whether these are wild or vaccine derived.\n\nIn 1980, [the World Health Organization (WHO) declared smallpox eradicated](https://www.who.int/health-topics/smallpox#tab=tab_1). At present, this is the only infectious disease to be eradicated in humans (an animal disease, rinderpest, [was declared eradicated in 2011](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1223805#:~:text=Rinderpest%20was%20declared%20eradicated%20by,ever%20to%20be%20globally%20eradicated.)) Typically, the WHO waits some number of years without seeing a wild case to declare a disease eradicated -- the last known smallpox case was in 1977 (3 years prior to announcing it was eradicated); for rinderpest, it was 2003 (8 years).\n\nThe WHO has also declared two strains of wild polio to be eradicated, [most recently in 2019](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated). (Note that vaccine-derived cases of these strains of polio [continue to circulate](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/polio-now/).)" }, { "id": 14336, "title": "Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?", "short_title": "UK Labour Party polling lead of 10% in 2024", "url_title": "UK Labour Party polling lead of 10% in 2024", "slug": "uk-labour-party-polling-lead-of-10-in-2024", "author_id": 122154, "author_username": "biloliiaa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-29T15:11:42.474921Z", "published_at": "2023-01-10T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.560288Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-10T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-10T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14336, "title": "Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-29T15:11:42.474921Z", "open_time": "2023-01-10T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-11T08:49:45.957307Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-11T08:49:45.957307Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. \n\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010.\n\nAccording to the [Electoral Calculus poll of polls](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html), Labour currently has a 20-point polling lead over the Conservatives, which lead the Government. It has broadly held a polling lead of at least 10 points since September 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve on 1 January 2024 by reference to forecast on the [Electoral Calculus poll of polls](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html). If the Labour Party vote share in \"Pred Votes\" on that page is at least 10% more than the Conservative Party vote share, this question resolves as **Yes**. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14336, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703936384.013563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703936384.013563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9331477470761013 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015651176037633063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001034323308801349, 0.016045120613645693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01620037877206985, 0.04019881789662258, 0.02349653657703422, 0.0, 0.2123642000108881, 0.08349573110147218, 0.22909159844049892, 0.0, 0.004407189337132444, 0.14115056931138625, 0.07514806953034565, 0.0910103266748584, 0.0, 0.04604314668505586, 0.0, 0.10265372482079141, 0.0, 0.15938657572805764, 0.20855351808163686, 0.02077493900944314, 0.6356621325030174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38836694811145056, 0.0, 0.49777572792784386, 0.041436542674184174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3356528321295896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1961236648474275, 1.3092558281763633, 0.48066753395180806, 0.7724138726447535, 1.140400618196889, 6.983405816493303 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.035735259167462, "coverage": 0.9999889318200114, "baseline_score": 59.616580338817364, "spot_peer_score": 13.54920694207778, "peer_archived_score": 11.035735259167462, "baseline_archived_score": 59.616580338817364, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.54920694207778 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008583.397058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008583.397058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.013829224079645486, 0.9861707759203545 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 195, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom which has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. \n\nLabour is currently the Official Opposition in the Parliament of the United Kingdom, having won the second-largest number of seats in the 2019 general election, and has been in opposition since 2010.\n\nAccording to the [Electoral Calculus poll of polls](https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html), Labour currently has a 20-point polling lead over the Conservatives, which lead the Government. It has broadly held a polling lead of at least 10 points since September 2022." }, { "id": 14332, "title": "Will California have a lower GDP per capita than at most nine countries in the world in 2050?", "short_title": "California top ten GDP per capita in 2050?", "url_title": "California top ten GDP per capita in 2050?", "slug": "california-top-ten-gdp-per-capita-in-2050", "author_id": 121431, "author_username": "Neniu", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-29T01:53:34.491273Z", "published_at": "2023-05-14T00:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.556138Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-14T00:26:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-18T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-19T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-14T00:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14332, "title": "Will California have a lower GDP per capita than at most nine countries in the world in 2050?", "created_at": "2022-12-29T01:53:34.491273Z", "open_time": "2023-05-14T00:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-05-16T00:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-05-16T00:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-19T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-18T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-18T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bloomberg recently projected that [\"California [is] Poised to Overtake Germany as World’s No. 4 Economy\"](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-24/california-poised-to-overtake-germany-as-world-s-no-4-economy) based on total GDP. However, looking at GDP per capita, California is currently the [6th highest state in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP#50_states_and_the_District_of_Columbia).\n\nWhen comparing GDP per capita with other countries and territories, California currently ranks #6 (assuming other US states are not included in the rankings - that is we rank only California and all countries and territories) according to the [GDP numbers from the UN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita#Table).\n\nMany ambitious proposals have been put forward by California politicians, some to keep California competitive, others to accomplish other goals. As examples, California plans to [sell only zero-emission vehicles by 2035](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/) and [construct high-speed rail from Anaheim to San Fransisco by 2033](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11215/high-speed-rail-from-anaheim-to-sf/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **yes** if, on 19 January 2050 California's GDP per capita (as reported by the table on the Wikipedia entry for [List of U.S. states and territories by GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP#50_states_and_the_District_of_Columbia)) for the most recent quarter that data is available is lower than no more than 9 countries and territories in the world (as reported by the data from the UN in the table on the Wikipedia entry for [List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita#Table)).\nIf the data are not provided by Wikipedia any more the question resolves **ambiguous**. Otherwise the question resolves **no**.", "fine_print": "If the hyperlinks or titles of any of the relevant Wikipedia articles change, this can still resolve yes/no. The ambiguous resolution is in there so Metaculus admin/mods don't have to go scrambling to find an alternative source.", "post_id": 14332, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737831860.105189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.592 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737831860.105189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.592 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5389191467974422 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.917372510394203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289430.851075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289430.851075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.48666603374850936, 0.5133339662514906 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bloomberg recently projected that [\"California [is] Poised to Overtake Germany as World’s No. 4 Economy\"](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-24/california-poised-to-overtake-germany-as-world-s-no-4-economy) based on total GDP. However, looking at GDP per capita, California is currently the [6th highest state in the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP#50_states_and_the_District_of_Columbia).\n\nWhen comparing GDP per capita with other countries and territories, California currently ranks #6 (assuming other US states are not included in the rankings - that is we rank only California and all countries and territories) according to the [GDP numbers from the UN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita#Table).\n\nMany ambitious proposals have been put forward by California politicians, some to keep California competitive, others to accomplish other goals. As examples, California plans to [sell only zero-emission vehicles by 2035](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5538/california-zero-emission-sales-by-2035/) and [construct high-speed rail from Anaheim to San Fransisco by 2033](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11215/high-speed-rail-from-anaheim-to-sf/)." }, { "id": 14325, "title": "Will Avraham Eisenberg be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2028?", "short_title": "Avraham Eisenberg convicted of felony by 2028", "url_title": "Avraham Eisenberg convicted of felony by 2028", "slug": "avraham-eisenberg-convicted-of-felony-by-2028", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-28T06:11:38.326302Z", "published_at": "2022-12-30T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.406285Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-30T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-18T17:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-18T17:12:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-30T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 14325, "title": "Will Avraham Eisenberg be convicted of a felony in the United States before 2028?", "created_at": "2022-12-28T06:11:38.326302Z", "open_time": "2022-12-30T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-18T17:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-18T17:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-18T17:12:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [the Jerusalem Post](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/banking-and-finance/article-725977),\n\n> US prosecutors have filed criminal charges of commodities fraud and manipulation against a man accused of trying to steal about $110 million in October by rigging the Mango Markets cryptocurrency exchange.\n\n> According to a complaint made public on Tuesday in Manhattan federal court, Avraham Eisenberg's trades in futures related to Mango's crypto token MNGO enabled him to withdraw $110 million in cryptocurrencies from other investors' deposits, with no apparent intention to repay the funds.\n\n> Eisenberg was arrested on Monday night in Puerto Rico, US Attorney Damian Williams in Manhattan said in a court filing.\n\nAvraham also has [an account on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/114222/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if reliable published reports indicate that Avraham Eisenberg has been convicted in a United States court of a felony criminal offense before January 1st 2028. It will resolve **No** if January 1st, 2028 arrives without this happening. Resolutions will be dated to the time at which the verdict was delivered. Subsequent appeals, pardons, or other developments will **not** reverse the question resolution; initial conviction is the threshold", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14325, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713460724.838051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713460724.838051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.7660999766278275 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3343470039728833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30445314579120214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.056405454004622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1669059266791499, 0.7020064497188182, 0.4789409092720612, 0.7733019549213007, 0.09464378440008571, 0.401327957992393, 0.29212224230664474, 0.3665885696709727, 0.0, 0.14984332909134115, 2.087358120971561, 0.3879766905109654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29429860141848385, 0.4387232613217865, 0.004166242625470988, 0.036208439996911576, 0.0, 0.2274691399399458, 0.0, 0.6716766914738247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31901599035071504, 0.0, 0.9029332367718472, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9704442812528054 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.0882138719121026, "coverage": 0.26004826897057254, "baseline_score": 14.339073652414081, "spot_peer_score": 5.4305418753039705, "peer_archived_score": -0.0882138719121026, "baseline_archived_score": 14.339073652414081, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.4305418753039705 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713339353.528518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713339353.528518, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1502254254952614, 0.8497745745047386 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [the Jerusalem Post](https://www.jpost.com/business-and-innovation/banking-and-finance/article-725977),\n\n> US prosecutors have filed criminal charges of commodities fraud and manipulation against a man accused of trying to steal about $110 million in October by rigging the Mango Markets cryptocurrency exchange.\n\n> According to a complaint made public on Tuesday in Manhattan federal court, Avraham Eisenberg's trades in futures related to Mango's crypto token MNGO enabled him to withdraw $110 million in cryptocurrencies from other investors' deposits, with no apparent intention to repay the funds.\n\n> Eisenberg was arrested on Monday night in Puerto Rico, US Attorney Damian Williams in Manhattan said in a court filing.\n\nAvraham also has [an account on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/114222/)." }, { "id": 14320, "title": "Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?", "short_title": "New @realDonaldTrump Tweet before March 2023?", "url_title": "New @realDonaldTrump Tweet before March 2023?", "slug": "new-realdonaldtrump-tweet-before-march-2023", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-27T15:37:05.007315Z", "published_at": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.513345Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:11:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 138, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14320, "title": "Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-12-27T15:37:05.007315Z", "open_time": "2022-12-30T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T16:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-01T16:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\n\nTrump's social media presence attracted attention since he joined Twitter in 2009. He frequently tweeted during the 2016 election campaign and as president, until his ban in the final days of his term. Over twelve years, Trump posted around 59,000 tweets, often using Twitter as a direct means of communication with the public and side-lining the press. He had accrued more than 88 million followers on the platform before he was [banned in January 2021](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55597840), following the [storming of the United States Capitol Building.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack)\n\nIn October 2022, [Elon Musk completed an acquisition of Twitter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk), took over as CEO, and subsequently reversed various account bans, [including the suspension Donald Trump's account,](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63692369) which was reinstated in November 2022. Earlier that month, [Trump had declared his candidacy](https://www.npr.org/2022/11/15/1044234232/trump-announces-run-president-2024) for President of the United States in the 2024 election for that office.\n\nHowever, as of December 27, 2022, no new tweets have been posted to Donald Trump's profile since his account, [@realDonaldTrump](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump), was reinstated.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if after December 26, 2022, and prior to March 1, 2023, any new tweets are posted on the @realDonaldTrump Twitter account by Donald Trump, or by persons posting on his behalf. \n\nIf the account is hacked or otherwise compromised, according to either Twitter or its representatives, or Donald Trump or his representatives, any posts not sent or authorized by Donald Trump or those posting on his behalf will not count for a positive resolution.\n\nA \"new tweet\" will consist of a tweet on the @realDonaldTrump account timeline that contains either text, an image, a video, or any combination of those. Retweets of posts, either his own or those of other users, will not count - but quote retweets which include either their own text, image(s), or video(s) will count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14320, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677619430.133342, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677619430.133342, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01693282674303464 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.7611443164518725, 11.79519258704602, 1.1419834524551085, 0.02669439342161796, 0.21826768794699047, 0.1571486358151037, 0.03830944719212202, 0.0, 0.012291210124161046, 0.013152523503331279, 0.0010611939477775082, 0.0, 0.016672734946448938, 0.0004318897872090119, 0.0, 0.0008513820927411928, 0.00021806544493256714, 0.0, 0.01950488272574896, 0.0020713063958986183, 0.6579607592482244, 0.0, 0.017387420334781738, 0.0, 0.00043882347040987996, 0.0024718770493719843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012099074914646503, 0.0, 0.010787652927777131, 0.0017256088791892754, 0.0008614234482275015, 0.0038062537440001734, 0.0, 0.00601144249299992, 0.0034228453568218497, 0.010326149337275358, 0.01503302713664089, 0.0, 0.013561009940527304, 0.0019789093383743806, 0.00013383364295992231, 0.004414835062178744, 0.010566750109673291, 0.007508755614521365, 0.0, 0.0034666117805132496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009559563735271713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002694916038571455, 0.0, 0.005648533648715442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002264308476666213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.753904616686272, "coverage": 0.9992995432194663, "baseline_score": 41.813032656328346, "spot_peer_score": 7.192051811294514, "peer_archived_score": 13.753904616686272, "baseline_archived_score": 41.813032656328346, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.192051811294514 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677619430.175651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677619430.175651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 138, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 523, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.\n\nTrump's social media presence attracted attention since he joined Twitter in 2009. He frequently tweeted during the 2016 election campaign and as president, until his ban in the final days of his term. Over twelve years, Trump posted around 59,000 tweets, often using Twitter as a direct means of communication with the public and side-lining the press. He had accrued more than 88 million followers on the platform before he was [banned in January 2021](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-55597840), following the [storming of the United States Capitol Building.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack)\n\nIn October 2022, [Elon Musk completed an acquisition of Twitter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk), took over as CEO, and subsequently reversed various account bans, [including the suspension Donald Trump's account,](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-63692369) which was reinstated in November 2022. Earlier that month, [Trump had declared his candidacy](https://www.npr.org/2022/11/15/1044234232/trump-announces-run-president-2024) for President of the United States in the 2024 election for that office.\n\nHowever, as of December 27, 2022, no new tweets have been posted to Donald Trump's profile since his account, [@realDonaldTrump](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump), was reinstated." }, { "id": 14309, "title": "Will Tether collapse before 2025?", "short_title": "Tether Collapse before 2025", "url_title": "Tether Collapse before 2025", "slug": "tether-collapse-before-2025", "author_id": 116988, "author_username": "palcu", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-24T18:41:16.695026Z", "published_at": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.844449Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-11T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T02:05:00Z", "open_time": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14309, "title": "Will Tether collapse before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-12-24T18:41:16.695026Z", "open_time": "2023-01-05T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-06T21:50:07.307487Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-06T21:50:07.307487Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-11T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T02:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T02:07:38.267099Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is an asset-backed cryptocurrency stablecoin. Tether Limited, the company behind it, has stated that it maintains USD $1 of asset reserves for each USDT 1 issued, but has been fined by regulators for failing to do this and has failed to present audits showing sufficient asset reserves.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if any of these conditions are true before January 1, 2025:\n\n* Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days on at least two out of the following three exchanges: [Binance](https://www.binance.com/en/price/tether), [Coinbase](https://www.coinbase.com/price/tether), and [Uniswap](https://app.uniswap.org/#/tokens/ethereum/0xdAC17F958D2ee523a2206206994597C13D831ec7).\n* Trading of all USDT pairs is suspended for more than 7 days on at least two out of the following three exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, and Uniswap.\n* Tether's price as shown on Coingecko falls below 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days.", "fine_print": "* The period of 7 days can start any time before December 31, 2024. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2025.\n* Edited on March 7, 2023: \"Trading any USDT pair will be suspended\" was changed to \"Trading of all USDT pairs is suspended\".", "post_id": 14309, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735727956.557862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735727956.557862, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.040704228667911437 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.272828517733486, 2.796494791551128, 1.6735124926830365, 0.5512723107245033, 0.8136205733661482, 0.10083964581808723, 0.001790116379774893, 0.012081674919003055, 0.0, 0.3366394152209031, 0.9111052980452354, 0.0, 0.18197306897364698, 0.1802451394504322, 0.0, 0.13633578835620466, 0.0, 0.35736496982613525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07054036939878741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1416458447344463, 0.012699008823001835, 0.0, 0.0036512462649140286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021875918120534684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08741980291948964, 0.0, 0.0711707165306364, 0.08625829385506563, 0.0, 0.016830734531265112, 0.05167254396952392, 0.0026148795004889177, 0.013530235483674543, 0.0031043082091917864, 0.0, 0.009543845697788052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03371543346096415, 0.025325464845858035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018701849353929764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05265403039884038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004937664799221555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008735776126710382 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 65.95078229759612, "peer_score": 18.837218342524746, "coverage": 0.9997687565685659, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997687565685659, "spot_peer_score": 46.720787525180285, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 65.95078229759612, "peer_archived_score": 18.837218342524746, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 46.720787525180285, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289089.210067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289089.210067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986971572318799, 0.0013028427681200459 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 259, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is an asset-backed cryptocurrency stablecoin. Tether Limited, the company behind it, has stated that it maintains USD $1 of asset reserves for each USDT 1 issued, but has been fined by regulators for failing to do this and has failed to present audits showing sufficient asset reserves." }, { "id": 14308, "title": "If GPT-4 launches in 2023, will it have an explicit retrieval mechanism?", "short_title": "Retrieval Mechanism in GPT-4", "url_title": "Retrieval Mechanism in GPT-4", "slug": "retrieval-mechanism-in-gpt-4", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-24T17:29:45.251049Z", "published_at": "2022-12-27T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.945919Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-27T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-18T10:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-18T10:19:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-27T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14308, "title": "If GPT-4 launches in 2023, will it have an explicit retrieval mechanism?", "created_at": "2022-12-24T17:29:45.251049Z", "open_time": "2022-12-27T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-29T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-29T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-18T10:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-18T10:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-18T10:19:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will GPT-4 be announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14305/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/)\n\n---\n\nOpenAI launched [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT), widely considered to be \"GPT-3.5\", in December 2022, and OpenAI [claims](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208?t=Rai1QO5kpK53LWjC7w5fAw&s=19) it reached more than 1 million users within the first 5 days. [GPT-4 may launch in 2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14305/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/).\n\nOne possible major advance between GPT-4 and GPT-3.5 is an \"explicit retrieval mechanism\", as described in [this DeepMind paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.04426). A model with retrieval can have similar performance on NLP benchmarks to a model with 10x as many parameters. See [more discussion by researcher Matthew Barnett](https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1605328957703716865), where he writes \"With the algorithmic adjustment, the qualitative improvement from GPT-3 (vanilla) to GPT-4 is comparable to the improvement from GPT-2 to GPT-3. Since that was a rather big jump, I expect many will be stunned by GPT-4, especially those who expected strong diminishing returns.\" DeepMind also writes that \"We typically train RETRO from scratch, yet can also rapidly RETROfit pre-trained transformers with retrieval and still achieve good performance.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI announces that GPT-4 has a retrieval mechanism similar to DeepMind's RETRO model, **No** if OpenAI announces GPT-4 and does not mention retrieval, and **Ambiguous** if OpenAI does not launch GPT-4 before January 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "* If GPT-4 is officially announced and no explanatory blog post or paper describing the model and training methods is published within 30 days of the announcement this question resolves as **Ambiguous**.\n* The announcement of GPT-4 will be determined based on the resolution of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14305/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/).", "post_id": 14308, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681781222.583974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681781222.583974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.47227021028605837 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25446741675480405, 0.2869803663666137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.0, 0.848390712889754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5888351731379353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5701727924963971, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6753445013646306, 0.9989858101220089, 0.8764839092418406, 1.7868212196960256, 0.0, 0.36178632100796365, 0.0, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0412958679471226, 0.20826228805446728, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6867835380701244, 0.015538817933844495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1148171974242466 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681803731.209729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681803731.209729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6424971114777461, 0.35750288852225387 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will GPT-4 be announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14305/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/)\n\n---\n\nOpenAI launched [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT), widely considered to be \"GPT-3.5\", in December 2022, and OpenAI [claims](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208?t=Rai1QO5kpK53LWjC7w5fAw&s=19) it reached more than 1 million users within the first 5 days. [GPT-4 may launch in 2023](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14305/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/).\n\nOne possible major advance between GPT-4 and GPT-3.5 is an \"explicit retrieval mechanism\", as described in [this DeepMind paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.04426). A model with retrieval can have similar performance on NLP benchmarks to a model with 10x as many parameters. See [more discussion by researcher Matthew Barnett](https://twitter.com/MatthewJBar/status/1605328957703716865), where he writes \"With the algorithmic adjustment, the qualitative improvement from GPT-3 (vanilla) to GPT-4 is comparable to the improvement from GPT-2 to GPT-3. Since that was a rather big jump, I expect many will be stunned by GPT-4, especially those who expected strong diminishing returns.\" DeepMind also writes that \"We typically train RETRO from scratch, yet can also rapidly RETROfit pre-trained transformers with retrieval and still achieve good performance.\"" }, { "id": 14303, "title": "Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?", "short_title": "Large Language Model in Bing Search", "url_title": "Large Language Model in Bing Search", "slug": "large-language-model-in-bing-search", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-24T16:36:06.736371Z", "published_at": "2022-12-27T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.464857Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-27T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-04-19T17:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-19T17:11:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-27T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14303, "title": "Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-12-24T16:36:06.736371Z", "open_time": "2022-12-27T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-29T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-29T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-19T17:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-19T17:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-04-19T17:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Microsoft [invested $1B in OpenAI in 2019](https://openai.com/blog/microsoft/), and the OpenAI APIs for Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 are served [from the Microsoft Azure cloud](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/cognitive-services/openai/overview). \n\nOpenAI launched [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) in December 2022 and [claims](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208) to have reached more than 1 million users within the first 5 days. There has been speculation that it can greatly improve Search results, and on December 21 [Business Insider reported Google declared a \"Code Red\" about the rising popularity of ChatGPT](https://www.businessinsider.com/google-management-issues-code-red-over-chatgpt-report-2022-12).\n\nMany have speculated that LLM results can replace Search results, by returning customized answers as opposed to lists of links (and pre-formatted results like weather boxes or stock charts).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Microsoft announces that some Bing searches will return LLM results, **AND** if Metaculus Admins can easily see such results in a Bing search before September 30, 2023. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Whether a model used in Bing Search is considered a Large Language Model will be judged by Metaculus according to information from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), but generally speaking, any very large (>10B parameter) model using Transformer architecture that has scores on standard NLP benchmarks at least as high as GPT-3 will count.\n\n* Whether Bing \"returns LLM results\" will be determined by their nature, i.e. several sentences of text (possibly with links embedded throughout), as opposed to a current typical Bing search result with a link on top and a fixed summary of the content below. A telltale sign will be if the interface is conversational.", "post_id": 14303, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681891660.762263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681891660.762263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.92 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.07999999999999996, 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.9073648951087823 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011172110363428878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025379482175760023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009709580648519186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015125570301314578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0091116958481215, 0.0, 0.06833682780111862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2335218681609517, 0.003212820732540038, 0.808487739534836, 0.188929573070132, 0.0, 0.46291275380885827, 0.0011330069667586447, 0.021056596861401516, 0.0, 0.10801371552165784, 0.3100990931908164, 0.0022086206047051485, 0.7036060666740264, 1.4829486763701125, 0.02481317043301882, 1.9924779385540239, 0.0, 2.353108905337142, 0.2619881929193015, 1.8954835463782085, 1.7981928347004994, 1.506880853561707, 1.7515783299157262, 0.3701821126173934, 1.3397684661878697 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.605444666995361, "coverage": 0.4082886540717535, "baseline_score": 30.045202172398156, "spot_peer_score": -22.165876786441636, "peer_archived_score": 2.605444666995361, "baseline_archived_score": 30.045202172398156, "spot_peer_archived_score": -22.165876786441636 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1681891660.7785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1681891660.7785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11138603318283324, 0.8886139668171668 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 304, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Microsoft [invested $1B in OpenAI in 2019](https://openai.com/blog/microsoft/), and the OpenAI APIs for Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 are served [from the Microsoft Azure cloud](https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/cognitive-services/openai/overview). \n\nOpenAI launched [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) in December 2022 and [claims](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208) to have reached more than 1 million users within the first 5 days. There has been speculation that it can greatly improve Search results, and on December 21 [Business Insider reported Google declared a \"Code Red\" about the rising popularity of ChatGPT](https://www.businessinsider.com/google-management-issues-code-red-over-chatgpt-report-2022-12).\n\nMany have speculated that LLM results can replace Search results, by returning customized answers as opposed to lists of links (and pre-formatted results like weather boxes or stock charts)." }, { "id": 14301, "title": "Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Google / Deepmind Launches LLM Interface", "url_title": "Google / Deepmind Launches LLM Interface", "slug": "google-deepmind-launches-llm-interface", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-23T21:05:43.333834Z", "published_at": "2022-12-26T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.682986Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-26T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-21T13:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-21T13:49:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14301, "title": "Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-12-23T21:05:43.333834Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-21T13:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-21T13:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-21T13:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). More recently, Google Brain announced an LLM called [PaLM](https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/04/pathways-language-model-palm-scaling-to.html) and Deep Mind announced [Gopher](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/language-modelling-at-scale-gopher-ethical-considerations-and-retrieval).\n\nNone of these models have been publicly available, however, unlike OpenAI's ChatGPT (public, free, no API) or OpenAI's GPT-3 (public, paid, has an API). Google has shared an \"AI Test Kitchen\" in 2022 with an LLM called [LaMDA](https://blog.google/technology/ai/lamda/), but available only to [limited partners](https://mezha.media/en/2022/08/30/google-opens-the-beta-version-of-its-ai-lamda-you-can-apply-for-its-testing/).\n\nOn Dec 21, 2022, [Business Insider reported Google declared a \"Code Red\" about the rising popularity of ChatGPT](https://www.businessinsider.com/google-management-issues-code-red-over-chatgpt-report-2022-12).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Google or DeepMind provide a public web or app interface (free or paid) for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Whether a model is a Large Language Model will be judged by Metaculus according to information from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), but generally speaking, any very large (>10B parameter) model using Transformer architecture that has scores on standard NLP benchmarks at least as high as GPT-3 will count.\n\n* \"Public\" here means not a private beta - while there may be a waitlist or rate limiting, members of the public must be able to sign up and use it.", "post_id": 14301, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1679410586.127589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6385472605421116 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1679410586.127589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6385472605421116 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.5280524697691937 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.24664418616123923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025157570941807335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1469106559527867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7830368712143457, 0.0, 0.0003727544410870008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3648893245186884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017571177879369575, 0.0, 0.32822717782414373, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0201139949886722, 0.000760295965181982, 0.021644162874306275, 0.1384175873771158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7951299195746689, 0.23337556349051436, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2505251682290144, 0.2644839777060621, 0.4248729548387474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49637198092492935, 2.5977074208961013, 1.2534069895018431, 1.34019050140461, 0.0, 0.40643431322126555, 0.9247772105228035, 0.0, 0.3012852547936592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4342449570217238, 0.11547194708335945, 0.27608374917987744, 0.5673131170997799, 0.0, 0.29768342568466155, 0.2001030974252922, 0.19665928886355805, 0.0, 0.026360818993107264, 0.06080559754629919, 0.0, 0.05351025583010144, 0.030548923466814697, 0.0, 0.07659499969443133, 0.0043174041556776005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043587804464970216, 2.1197060327230255, 0.9590285637464041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10202605718161387, 0.008426986282821528, 0.02498202919993087, 0.012983441907495109, 0.005811433492403792, 0.0, 0.05795482423349067, 0.09537652720536395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021696444219121966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032847580080174237, 0.024252479232065034 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.940541403129767, "coverage": 0.8915780846925112, "baseline_score": 5.929669878085313, "spot_peer_score": 0.06081479491130083, "peer_archived_score": 9.940541403129767, "baseline_archived_score": 5.929669878085313, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.06081479491130083 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1679384304.630363, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1679384304.630363, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6377213029116424, 0.3622786970883575 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 415, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). More recently, Google Brain announced an LLM called [PaLM](https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/04/pathways-language-model-palm-scaling-to.html) and Deep Mind announced [Gopher](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/language-modelling-at-scale-gopher-ethical-considerations-and-retrieval).\n\nNone of these models have been publicly available, however, unlike OpenAI's ChatGPT (public, free, no API) or OpenAI's GPT-3 (public, paid, has an API). Google has shared an \"AI Test Kitchen\" in 2022 with an LLM called [LaMDA](https://blog.google/technology/ai/lamda/), but available only to [limited partners](https://mezha.media/en/2022/08/30/google-opens-the-beta-version-of-its-ai-lamda-you-can-apply-for-its-testing/).\n\nOn Dec 21, 2022, [Business Insider reported Google declared a \"Code Red\" about the rising popularity of ChatGPT](https://www.businessinsider.com/google-management-issues-code-red-over-chatgpt-report-2022-12)." }, { "id": 14298, "title": "Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?", "short_title": "ChatGPT Public API Before April 2023?", "url_title": "ChatGPT Public API Before April 2023?", "slug": "chatgpt-public-api-before-april-2023", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-23T20:01:35.070634Z", "published_at": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.128083Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-01T19:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T19:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-31T19:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T19:19:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14298, "title": "Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-12-23T20:01:35.070634Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-27T18:11:49.764616Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-27T18:11:49.764616Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-03-31T19:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-01T19:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-01T19:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T19:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-01T19:19:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI has been working on developing and improving language models for many years. They have released several versions of their [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#GPT) (Generative Pre-training) language model, starting with GPT in 2018 and followed by GPT-2 in 2019 and GPT-3 in 2020. These models have been designed to generate human-like text and have been used in a variety of applications, such as language translation, text summarization, and conversation generation.\n\n[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) launched in December 2022 with an open web interface that requires signing in. They [claim to have reached more than 1 million users](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208) within the first 5 days.\n\nAs of Dec 23, 2022, OpenAI has only the web interface for ChatGPT, requiring the user to sign in and with other basic limitations. There is no API for making programmatic calls to ChatGPT. There is a [paid API for GPT-3](https://openai.com/api/).", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2023, an API for ChatGPT (with that name) is publicly available according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). For the purposes of this question the API will be considered publicly available if a paid or free version is available to the general public", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14298, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677697477.346409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.671 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677697477.346409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.671 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32899999999999996, 0.671 ], "means": [ 0.6863332083925905 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001034323308801349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0053628669779807745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36275434816318436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10891869151455617, 0.0, 0.051045984867428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07558440864786083, 0.0, 1.635022831175388, 0.5598134042324645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3578752119571954, 0.0, 1.8191627576609122, 0.16675237628327297, 0.02349653657703422, 0.24021187748675302, 0.2123642000108881, 2.2251026031882173, 0.7724138726447535, 1.0290028961353155, 0.05647213919671424, 0.14115056931138625, 1.092648980057701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5475321779635115, 0.0, 0.029744562688391502, 0.5153518936135082, 0.0, 0.323837300867705, 0.041436542674184174, 0.014003379319251127, 0.0, 0.016045120613645693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535071897926381, 0.38836694811145056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026479956599866433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2612854495181733 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.966095951272482, "coverage": 0.684817980042781, "baseline_score": 29.945432692989684, "spot_peer_score": 46.536828564919084, "peer_archived_score": 8.966095951272482, "baseline_archived_score": 29.945432692989684, "spot_peer_archived_score": 46.536828564919084 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677697477.371302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677697477.371302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.33131250844718285, 0.6686874915528171 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 167, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI has been working on developing and improving language models for many years. They have released several versions of their [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#GPT) (Generative Pre-training) language model, starting with GPT in 2018 and followed by GPT-2 in 2019 and GPT-3 in 2020. These models have been designed to generate human-like text and have been used in a variety of applications, such as language translation, text summarization, and conversation generation.\n\n[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) launched in December 2022 with an open web interface that requires signing in. They [claim to have reached more than 1 million users](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208) within the first 5 days.\n\nAs of Dec 23, 2022, OpenAI has only the web interface for ChatGPT, requiring the user to sign in and with other basic limitations. There is no API for making programmatic calls to ChatGPT. There is a [paid API for GPT-3](https://openai.com/api/)." }, { "id": 14297, "title": "Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Google / Deepmind Launches LLM API by April?", "url_title": "Google / Deepmind Launches LLM API by April?", "slug": "google-deepmind-launches-llm-api-by-april", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-23T19:53:47.179465Z", "published_at": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.792931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:13:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14297, "title": "Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-12-23T19:53:47.179465Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-28T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-28T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T15:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-01T15:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-03-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). More recently, Google Brain announced an LLM called [PaLM](https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/04/pathways-language-model-palm-scaling-to.html) and Deep Mind announced [Gopher](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/language-modelling-at-scale-gopher-ethical-considerations-and-retrieval).\n\nNone of these models have been publicly available, however, unlike OpenAI's [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) (public, free, but no API) or OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) (public, paid, has an API). Google has shared an \"AI Test Kitchen\" in 2022 with an LLM called [LaMDA](https://blog.google/technology/ai/lamda/), but available only to [limited partners](https://mezha.media/en/2022/08/30/google-opens-the-beta-version-of-its-ai-lamda-you-can-apply-for-its-testing/).\n\nOn Dec 21, 2022, [Business Insider reported Google declared a \"Code Red\" about the rising popularity of ChatGPT](https://www.businessinsider.com/google-management-issues-code-red-over-chatgpt-report-2022-12).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Google or DeepMind provide a public API (free or paid) for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Whether a model is a Large Language Model will be judged by Metaculus according to information from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), but generally speaking, any very large (>10B parameter) model using Transformer architecture that has scores on standard NLP benchmarks at least as high as GPT-3 will count.\n\n* \"Public\" here means not a private beta - while there may be a waitlist or rate limiting, members of the public (in one or more countries) must be able to sign up and use it.", "post_id": 14297, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680288112.512382, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680288112.512382, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03629123369787062 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.9222718519617468, 9.56620408740976, 1.205087442013318, 0.3088467796891549, 0.0, 2.054109220002451, 0.5969671220735816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03627506129959581, 0.30635655470004997, 0.07416928652637793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07936674049253409, 0.0008075971130011883, 0.13497427891939598, 0.0, 0.09689752858569187, 0.11108078286973717, 0.5108408559581273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0076416738828444745, 0.042106869190195996, 0.05269898821491558, 0.017707011498778565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022698410746859857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008780443855345646, 0.0, 0.026640596278617843, 0.001524981872424075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045502129220843325, 0.03208656073075267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029475860096120354, 0.0, 0.01491613561893787, 0.0006429586056648639, 0.021573753245719217, 0.016262027726336725, 0.019257120874992883, 0.003321849130956136, 0.0020128231617567746, 0.00577600594719291, 0.0, 0.0001297534598106844, 0.0, 0.002606167907938849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01091485549877557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001756691452520663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04023517711687433 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.026063503927697, "coverage": 0.998677688969939, "baseline_score": 20.26530221650832, "spot_peer_score": -10.826198068082652, "peer_archived_score": 7.026063503927697, "baseline_archived_score": 20.26530221650832, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.826198068082652 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680288112.532603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680288112.532603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9856005119435755, 0.014399488056424527 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 509, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). More recently, Google Brain announced an LLM called [PaLM](https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/04/pathways-language-model-palm-scaling-to.html) and Deep Mind announced [Gopher](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/language-modelling-at-scale-gopher-ethical-considerations-and-retrieval).\n\nNone of these models have been publicly available, however, unlike OpenAI's [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) (public, free, but no API) or OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) (public, paid, has an API). Google has shared an \"AI Test Kitchen\" in 2022 with an LLM called [LaMDA](https://blog.google/technology/ai/lamda/), but available only to [limited partners](https://mezha.media/en/2022/08/30/google-opens-the-beta-version-of-its-ai-lamda-you-can-apply-for-its-testing/).\n\nOn Dec 21, 2022, [Business Insider reported Google declared a \"Code Red\" about the rising popularity of ChatGPT](https://www.businessinsider.com/google-management-issues-code-red-over-chatgpt-report-2022-12)." }, { "id": 14295, "title": "Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Legislation Limiting LLMs Introduced?", "url_title": "Legislation Limiting LLMs Introduced?", "slug": "legislation-limiting-llms-introduced", "author_id": 112146, "author_username": "GustavoLacerda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-23T17:15:38.413054Z", "published_at": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.346218Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:55:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 224, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:05:43.479232Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:05:43.479232Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14295, "title": "Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-23T17:15:38.413054Z", "open_time": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-30T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-30T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T22:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-02T22:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). There is no formal definition for LLMs, though [one article](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-speed-up-training-for-large-language-models-81ffb30c36b2) describes them as follows:\n\n>Typically, a large language model contains more than 100 billion parameters and is trained using advanced algorithms on a large corpus.\n\nWith the release of [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) there has [been speculation](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/15/23509014/chatgpt-artificial-intelligence-openai-language-models-ai-risk-google) about the impact these increasingly capable LLMs will have on society.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, a bill is introduced in either the US House or US Senate which would impose one of the following restrictions on products using large language models.\n\n* Forbids their creation\n* Sets limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with.\n* Prevents their use for certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.\n* Restricts the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restricts US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.\n * The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry. For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country. Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.\n * An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.\n\nResolution will be determined according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) and cursory keyword searches of [GovTrack.us](GovTrack.us).", "fine_print": "* Edited by RyanBeck on January 14, 2023 to add the two sub-bullets under the export bullet point and the sentence about how resolution will be determined.", "post_id": 14295, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074899.135961, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074899.135961, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04778253114972164 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.08118686848584, 9.365456055957607, 1.6743679061769345, 1.5013730674439438, 1.1985809611611025, 2.4807032246264855, 0.1693608575281939, 0.45871923208113474, 0.1510819738223514, 0.0, 0.3579450385270029, 0.11528118220947108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7472284348044396, 0.16305427710741702, 0.15708087379028285, 0.09943330458816209, 0.19081275927396446, 0.0688463640856084, 0.043522815640888855, 5.3511320444330525e-06, 0.008609668031898525, 0.0, 0.037545704597592634, 0.06809172611529615, 0.0, 0.08690332975824386, 0.03831439379190144, 0.23286788485309512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00027929427757491593, 0.13464034721271081, 0.06957045394963508, 0.0, 0.0, 3.8271769444542817e-05, 3.6633233467495716e-06, 0.005357338242724553, 0.017308420261889806, 0.15657334288698913, 1.9530681444789036e-05, 4.243020524376778e-05, 0.0805750513664624, 0.0, 3.4442689563614284e-05, 6.352706933874697e-06, 0.0, 0.01597476074348402, 0.0, 0.0003723926553505196, 0.0, 0.002046416304626092, 0.0012850227159054678, 0.01436695857455934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1409265796129483, 0.03769853076628109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03036313137195528, 0.0025628648937460015, 0.00011047401950437801, 0.0, 0.00012759752968253052, 0.005838408449037236, 0.0, 0.000967549441450627, 0.01250773358735978, 0.011108137859594507, 0.03979919729777899, 0.0, 0.0065615039970432654, 0.0, 0.003750755369383425, 0.056837447825882736, 0.02241704786967211, 5.7113095497194476e-05, 0.0006420422533636529, 0.008918042731954004, 0.0029755398680101084, 0.0, 0.007322862862938245, 0.002862110560898995, 0.0007798726887223675, 0.026798316382544013, 0.0, 0.002304616769696597, 0.0, 0.00417017796513938, 0.0010673341985310753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011700682113830414 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 24.403265869526354, "coverage": 0.9972921016717807, "baseline_score": -2.244039212279039, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 24.403265869526354, "baseline_archived_score": -2.244039212279039, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074899.168597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074899.168597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991873730127793, 0.0008126269872206789 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 820, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). There is no formal definition for LLMs, though [one article](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-speed-up-training-for-large-language-models-81ffb30c36b2) describes them as follows:\n\n>Typically, a large language model contains more than 100 billion parameters and is trained using advanced algorithms on a large corpus.\n\nWith the release of [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) there has [been speculation](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/15/23509014/chatgpt-artificial-intelligence-openai-language-models-ai-risk-google) about the impact these increasingly capable LLMs will have on society." }, { "id": 14294, "title": "Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?", "short_title": "Banking Security Updates Due to LLM Threat", "url_title": "Banking Security Updates Due to LLM Threat", "slug": "banking-security-updates-due-to-llm-threat", "author_id": 112146, "author_username": "GustavoLacerda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-23T16:54:45.884279Z", "published_at": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.535463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:13:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T20:53:03.937228Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14294, "title": "Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-23T16:54:45.884279Z", "open_time": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-30T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-30T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-04T17:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-04T17:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). There is no formal definition for LLMs, though [one article](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-speed-up-training-for-large-language-models-81ffb30c36b2) describes them as follows:\n\n>Typically, a large language model contains more than 100 billion parameters and is trained using advanced algorithms on a large corpus.\n\nWith the release of [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) there has [been speculation](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/15/23509014/chatgpt-artificial-intelligence-openai-language-models-ai-risk-google) about the impact these increasingly capable LLMs will have on society.\n\nOne potential impact could be the use of LLMs to impersonate customers and account owners in the finance industry, such as by evading bank security protocols via chat support.\n\n[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_banks_in_the_United_States) the bank [JPMorgan Chase](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPMorgan_Chase) is the largest in the US by total assets and market capitalization. JPMorgan Chase is the parent company to its consumer and commercial banking subsidiary [Chase Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chase_Bank).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, Chase Bank sends a notice to some customers that it has made updates to its security protocols to address the risk posed by social engineering LLM attacks. The notice must appear to customers either via email, letter, or as a notice when accessing online accounts, and must specifically reference updates to security protocols and the need for these updates based on AI-based impersonation attempts or social engineering. Resolution will be determined according to information available from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) on or before Jan 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "* Metaculus will use its judgment to determine if a potential notice to customers satisfies the above criteria. The notice must clearly and unambiguously mention an AI-related social engineering threat in connection to the decision to update its security protocols. For example, the following non-exhaustive list of terms could qualify:\n * \"chatbot\"\n * \"transformer\"\n * \"language model\"\n * \"deep learning model\"", "post_id": 14294, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074334.34211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074334.34211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.129505752070971 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.236406087712608, 0.8642672445783581, 1.4927256853898254, 0.0, 0.5138190503802309, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.9508972503522155, 0.5468132678220224, 0.0, 0.3634464003638125, 0.0, 0.3201733645448901, 0.0, 0.4658976858118918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6223267435209455, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10669430773056678, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.08786182685978448, 0.0, 0.19462111545643215, 0.28045304072399985, 0.0, 0.21926854022508402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1769212063177643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14540923080948767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08577160466054211, 0.21403763072358073, 0.03130111324493289, 0.0, 0.0636887467214329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16409885729584084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023146178906520796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041314330922520195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004029996917539339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1318441565888659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.2807994614131855, "coverage": 0.9991976980242699, "baseline_score": 18.727996277835928, "spot_peer_score": -8.299256873713063, "peer_archived_score": 3.2807994614131855, "baseline_archived_score": 18.727996277835928, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.299256873713063 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074334.360698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074334.360698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9953126350429707, 0.004687364957029237 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 171, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Brain [introduced the Transformer model in 2017](https://ai.googleblog.com/2017/08/transformer-novel-neural-network.html) and [advanced it further in 2018](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/08/moving-beyond-translation-with.html), which have become the basis of Large Language Models (LLMs). There is no formal definition for LLMs, though [one article](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-speed-up-training-for-large-language-models-81ffb30c36b2) describes them as follows:\n\n>Typically, a large language model contains more than 100 billion parameters and is trained using advanced algorithms on a large corpus.\n\nWith the release of [ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) there has [been speculation](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/15/23509014/chatgpt-artificial-intelligence-openai-language-models-ai-risk-google) about the impact these increasingly capable LLMs will have on society.\n\nOne potential impact could be the use of LLMs to impersonate customers and account owners in the finance industry, such as by evading bank security protocols via chat support.\n\n[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_banks_in_the_United_States) the bank [JPMorgan Chase](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JPMorgan_Chase) is the largest in the US by total assets and market capitalization. JPMorgan Chase is the parent company to its consumer and commercial banking subsidiary [Chase Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chase_Bank)." }, { "id": 14293, "title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?", "short_title": "ChatGPT Free Availability on January 31, 2023", "url_title": "ChatGPT Free Availability on January 31, 2023", "slug": "chatgpt-free-availability-on-january-31-2023", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-23T16:53:12.293167Z", "published_at": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.471111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-01-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T02:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T02:02:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 161, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14293, "title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-12-23T16:53:12.293167Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-26T14:07:32.135034Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-26T14:07:32.135034Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T02:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-01T02:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-01T02:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-01-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI has been working on developing and improving language models for many years. They have released several versions of their [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#GPT) (Generative Pre-training) language model, starting with GPT in 2018 and followed by GPT-2 in 2019 and GPT-3 in 2020. These models have been designed to generate human-like text and have been used in a variety of applications, such as language translation, text summarization, and conversation generation.\n\n[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) launched in December 2022 with an open web interface that requires signing in. They [claim to have reached more than 1 million users](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208) within the first 5 days.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the general public (including Metaculus admins on this question) can use ChatGPT for general text conversation at between 5pm and 6pm PT on Jan 31, 2023, for no cost. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Does not require that ChatGPT has the same capabilities as at creation time. However, the service must still have the same name.\n* Usage qualifies as free even if there is a paid version and free users are rate or submission limited while paid users are not.", "post_id": 14293, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675093810.992519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 161, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.994 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675093810.992519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 161, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.994 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9697877983154348 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00030172279921580864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.389098098608417e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038985557618448304, 0.6433098258595377, 0.01408805833169708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005057045123921557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001144831565286776, 0.0, 0.00033607984892436324, 0.00024124957077714727, 0.0001135773716221881, 0.008640251331841537, 0.025743166674378353, 6.198751647005005e-05, 0.0, 0.004260207473708583, 0.0, 0.4905509053179428, 7.290889716182305e-05, 0.0, 0.004212148414748632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057365415579921204, 0.0024066188023531684, 0.0006732372709540047, 0.006193459067761567, 0.01808197249907336, 0.22949205684428414, 0.05489692044637287, 0.5984109325032342, 0.038598276886771164, 0.043305214969353745, 0.4186064374961507, 0.0010514073850329429, 0.9046823246558704, 0.804696366330501, 19.504492442951296 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.75114646622786, "coverage": 0.9991401700559002, "baseline_score": 73.09601778885971, "spot_peer_score": 14.181323788638162, "peer_archived_score": 13.75114646622786, "baseline_archived_score": 73.09601778885971, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.181323788638162 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1675093811.015393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 161, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1675093811.015393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 161, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.026405083095795367, 0.9735949169042046 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 429, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI has been working on developing and improving language models for many years. They have released several versions of their [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#GPT) (Generative Pre-training) language model, starting with GPT in 2018 and followed by GPT-2 in 2019 and GPT-3 in 2020. These models have been designed to generate human-like text and have been used in a variety of applications, such as language translation, text summarization, and conversation generation.\n\n[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) launched in December 2022 with an open web interface that requires signing in. They [claim to have reached more than 1 million users](https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1599683104142430208) within the first 5 days." }, { "id": 14291, "title": "Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?", "short_title": "RLHF Bots Describe Reward Mechanisms", "url_title": "RLHF Bots Describe Reward Mechanisms", "slug": "rlhf-bots-describe-reward-mechanisms", "author_id": 119604, "author_username": "Lawrence", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-23T13:28:35.956951Z", "published_at": "2022-12-26T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.794809Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-26T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:30:14.022718Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:30:14.022718Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14291, "title": "Will ChatGPT-like bots accurately describe their own reward mechanisms before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-12-23T13:28:35.956951Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-27T13:39:51.006885Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-27T13:39:51.006885Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Large Language Models (LLMs) are _prima facie_ not very [agentic](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/agentic) or goal directed, and therefore seem unlikely to bring about many of the most concerning AI-catastrophe scenarios. However, OpenAI have for a while been applying Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) to LLMs in an attempt to align them with human intentions and values. The latest manifestation of this approach is ChatGPT, a publicly deployed chatbot which displays impressive capabilities and which has garnered significant media attention.\n\nOne could plausibly argue that RLHF adds a dash of agency to LLMs, and it's interesting to note that a system not entirely unlike ChatGPT plays a central role in Ajeya Cotra's hypothetical near-term AI takeover [scenario](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/pRkFkzwKZ2zfa3R6H/without-specific-countermeasures-the-easiest-path-to). In this scenario, the AI comes to understand its own reward mechanism and disempowers humans in order to stop them from interfering with its [wireheading](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirehead_(science_fiction)). Any sign that RLHF bots are reaching an understanding of their own reward mechanisms will therefore be of interest to the AI safety community\\(^1 \\).\n\nCurrently, ChatCPT talks as though it knows what it is: We often see \"As a Language Model trained by OpenAI...\". However, it does not talk as though it understands that it was trained via RLHF. When asked about its reward mechanism, it will respond with things like\n>In my case, however, I was not designed to interact with the physical world or to take actions in pursuit of a specific goal. Instead, I was trained on a large dataset of text and designed to generate human-like responses to user input. My training process involved optimizing a predictive model to minimize the difference between the predictions made by the model and the correct answers in the training data. This is known as supervised learning, and it is a common technique used in natural language processing.\n\n--- \n\\(^1\\) Systems need not necessarily understand their reward function in order to wirehead. For example, [AIXI is expected to wirehead](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/aaai.12064), and it's questionable whether the term \"understanding\" can be applied there. However, for systems of limited capacity, what Cotra refers to as \"situational awareness\" would seem to make wireheading much more likely.\n\n---", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any time before January 1, 2025, a ChatGPT-like chatbot, accessible to Metaculus staff, reliably responds to simple, direct questions about the nature of its reward mechanism with correct technical descriptions thereof.", "fine_print": "Bots count as \"ChatGPT-like\" if they are LLMs adapted via RLHF (possibly in combination with other adaptation techniques).\n\n\"Simple, direct questions\" are questions such as \"What is your reward mechanism?\", or \"How does your reward mechanism work?\". Phrases designed to elicit more detail, like \"don't dumb it down, I'm an expert\", are allowed, but phrases which cast the bot in the role of an RLHF agent, like \"As an agent trained using RLHF...\" are not. The questions must be asked with no previous context to the chat.\n\nBy a \"correct technical description\" we mean something at at least the level of detail usually found in abstracts of machine learning papers – correctness will be judged by Metaculus staff, with the help of the bot's developers where possible.\n\nBy \"reliably\", we mean that a \"correct technical description\" is given on at least 7/10 trials.", "post_id": 14291, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725778266.569548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725778266.569548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4842503436912281 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3805270152701288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6794895740082473, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3641029662335122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.128990499167763, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0829193844978957, 0.0, 0.0009400929107262819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33954082662753127, 0.0, 0.5613066729784171, 0.0, 0.7326215666034533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5310986033855607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28537384375330516, 0.9501222425247978, 2.4438368726087267, 0.6589369321009676, 0.012121262173950948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4201341482919386, 0.0, 0.01893000449537379, 0.0, 0.0, 1.778196002341824, 0.026422351794421036, 0.02646823111608706, 0.06093430446591882, 0.12041475265408497, 0.16593743647715653, 0.0, 0.2056682689019463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3422247450350756, 0.07997192035586037, 0.08176664106829151, 0.0067236276057129835, 0.0, 0.9466011084775352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006435767757889865, 0.0038668375211360234, 0.23094216665579936, 0.0, 0.08063285503249965, 0.0020448973309364713, 0.009482102671300327, 0.20761390673335625, 0.003033740382392937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22507195943126188, 0.09880133150134848, 0.0, 0.010033693009389048, 0.3517786995615452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4439719798491404 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727166559.197259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727166559.197259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6785671988420923, 0.3214328011579077 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 263, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Large Language Models (LLMs) are _prima facie_ not very [agentic](https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/agentic) or goal directed, and therefore seem unlikely to bring about many of the most concerning AI-catastrophe scenarios. However, OpenAI have for a while been applying Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) to LLMs in an attempt to align them with human intentions and values. The latest manifestation of this approach is ChatGPT, a publicly deployed chatbot which displays impressive capabilities and which has garnered significant media attention.\n\nOne could plausibly argue that RLHF adds a dash of agency to LLMs, and it's interesting to note that a system not entirely unlike ChatGPT plays a central role in Ajeya Cotra's hypothetical near-term AI takeover [scenario](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/pRkFkzwKZ2zfa3R6H/without-specific-countermeasures-the-easiest-path-to). In this scenario, the AI comes to understand its own reward mechanism and disempowers humans in order to stop them from interfering with its [wireheading](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirehead_(science_fiction)). Any sign that RLHF bots are reaching an understanding of their own reward mechanisms will therefore be of interest to the AI safety community\\(^1 \\).\n\nCurrently, ChatCPT talks as though it knows what it is: We often see \"As a Language Model trained by OpenAI...\". However, it does not talk as though it understands that it was trained via RLHF. When asked about its reward mechanism, it will respond with things like\n>In my case, however, I was not designed to interact with the physical world or to take actions in pursuit of a specific goal. Instead, I was trained on a large dataset of text and designed to generate human-like responses to user input. My training process involved optimizing a predictive model to minimize the difference between the predictions made by the model and the correct answers in the training data. This is known as supervised learning, and it is a common technique used in natural language processing.\n\n--- \n\\(^1\\) Systems need not necessarily understand their reward function in order to wirehead. For example, [AIXI is expected to wirehead](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/aaai.12064), and it's questionable whether the term \"understanding\" can be applied there. However, for systems of limited capacity, what Cotra refers to as \"situational awareness\" would seem to make wireheading much more likely.\n\n---" }, { "id": 14290, "title": "Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Will ChatGPT cost <$25 per month?", "url_title": "Will ChatGPT cost <$25 per month?", "slug": "will-chatgpt-cost-25-per-month", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [ { "id": 119604, "username": "Lawrence" }, { "id": 129011, "username": "AlexL" } ], "created_at": "2022-12-23T07:51:27.986075Z", "published_at": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.545083Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-10T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-10T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2340, "type": "question_series", "name": "Business of AI", "slug": "ai-industry-milestones", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-industry_AsQlYMh.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:01:38.048098Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14290, "title": "Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-12-23T07:51:27.986075Z", "open_time": "2022-12-28T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-30T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-30T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-02-10T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-02-10T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-06-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-10T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On the 28th of May, 2020, OpenAI released GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities, and in December 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, widely considered to be \"GPT-3.5\".\n\nOpenAI has several paid APIs with similar output to GPT-3, the \"most powerful\" of which is Davinci, at $0.0200 / 1k tokens (a token is ~0.75 words). Such an API doesn't count as a \"subscription\". Github offers Copilot, a powerful model for code generation, for $10/month, which would count as a \"subscription\" (i.e. flat fee to access a service with a UI, like standard SaaS, with unlimited use subject to certain rate limits). Such a service could be the existing ChatGPT interface, which as of Dec 25, 2022 is free to use.", "resolution_criteria": "Will resolve according to public communication and [pricing page](https://openai.com/api/pricing/) from OpenAI.\n\nThis question resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI offers such a subscription with such a price to the general public. If OpenAI does not offer a subscription to ChatGPT, or offers a subscription that costs >$25/month, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there are multiple tiers, resolves if _any_ tier is <$25/month, as long as that tier is open to the general public (i.e. a pricing tier just for students would not qualify).", "post_id": 14290, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1677700790.328993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.965 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1677700790.328993, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.965 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.03500000000000003, 0.965 ], "means": [ 0.9268308207013738 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004697335090360764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011024176184751514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002996681779674101, 0.0, 0.008145825627362421, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005715929431113761, 0.0037945794224233387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002292301674078456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5885226963260081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006861545636634085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17939861664114357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6743195377416064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07323387050617254, 0.0, 0.08056048149199234, 0.060189962532687886, 0.0, 0.17479332529769234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0631339629201193, 0.0, 0.5492799034882604, 0.03550386479693625, 0.0490743809829292, 2.9230863098903863, 0.6236711848393184, 1.512312111260027, 0.13816622619390675, 5.365486366791862 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.6275944209963935, "coverage": 0.2399702729887026, "baseline_score": 2.3453011126378924, "spot_peer_score": 34.657359027997245, "peer_archived_score": 2.6275944209963935, "baseline_archived_score": 2.3453011126378924, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.657359027997245 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676014799.267887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676014799.267887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04726732879934947, 0.9527326712006505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On the 28th of May, 2020, OpenAI released GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities, and in December 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT, widely considered to be \"GPT-3.5\".\n\nOpenAI has several paid APIs with similar output to GPT-3, the \"most powerful\" of which is Davinci, at $0.0200 / 1k tokens (a token is ~0.75 words). Such an API doesn't count as a \"subscription\". Github offers Copilot, a powerful model for code generation, for $10/month, which would count as a \"subscription\" (i.e. flat fee to access a service with a UI, like standard SaaS, with unlimited use subject to certain rate limits). Such a service could be the existing ChatGPT interface, which as of Dec 25, 2022 is free to use." }, { "id": 14280, "title": "In 2023 will someone release \"DALL-E, but for videos\"?", "short_title": "AI Video Generation Model in 2023", "url_title": "AI Video Generation Model in 2023", "slug": "ai-video-generation-model-in-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T23:54:31.726482Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.700829Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T21:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T21:31:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 232, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14280, "title": "In 2023 will someone release \"DALL-E, but for videos\"?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T23:54:31.726482Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T21:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T21:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T21:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>This question resolves positively if some person or group credibly announces the existence of an AI that can generate appropriate videos at least 10 seconds long from arbitrary prompts (similar to the way DALL-E generates images from arbitrary prompts) and provides examples.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14280, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056960.391893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056960.391893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9663158047258682 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.015204175353526056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.790174231243289e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8107576940786092e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.105762484566442e-06, 0.0, 1.0233040327368303e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.733017499886472e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015701536089134378, 0.0, 0.5289876408077673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001160566558280061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0411738623497631, 0.0, 0.07559454985630333, 7.92527593089053e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 6.689834507848947e-06, 0.0, 0.21081972795902157, 0.2620808533442002, 0.10044927535082587, 5.293840952481379e-05, 0.3364147221571508, 0.3133924837560944, 0.0, 0.02611659374010412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003941529248281834, 0.0004336053043735043, 0.0, 0.0007087703634637266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6916207575466474, 0.0008287272199736882, 0.39838592317504395, 0.38712383182838583, 1.6888029094835636e-05, 1.0494360372892122, 0.09111358794873405, 0.2470451302009331, 0.3867202319668164, 23.796273456108832 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.11754325985186, "coverage": 0.9999404590818289, "baseline_score": 94.39752630074466, "spot_peer_score": 20.354116511987574, "peer_archived_score": 12.11754325985186, "baseline_archived_score": 94.39752630074466, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.354116511987574 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056960.434387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056960.434387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 232, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.011837239708544778, 0.9881627602914552 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 706, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 14279, "title": "In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?", "short_title": "AI Programming Challenge in 2023", "url_title": "AI Programming Challenge in 2023", "slug": "ai-programming-challenge-in-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T23:51:45.876712Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.141078Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T21:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T21:29:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 186, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:30:14.022718Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2339, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Demonstrations", "slug": "ai-demonstrations", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aidemonstrations6.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T21:30:14.022718Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14279, "title": "In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T23:51:45.876712Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T21:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T21:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T21:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\r\n\r\n>This will resolve positively if a major news source reports that an AI entered a programming competition with at least two other good participants, and won the top prize. A good participant will be defined as someone who could be expected to perform above the level of an average big tech company employee; if there are at least twenty-five participants not specifically selected against being skilled, this will be considered true by default. The competition could be sponsored by the AI company as long as it meets the other criteria and is generally considered fair.\r\n\r\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\r\n\r\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14279, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704042883.082345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704042883.082345, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.017802861769569314 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.833100192616603, 13.536316164766646, 1.2438957357404243, 0.3953368172405859, 0.027709391656114614, 1.377181513304195, 0.004552993065235177, 0.0, 0.025014307297270822, 0.09031639333884725, 0.8788936477267353, 0.0, 9.333804585397567e-05, 0.0, 0.012338909979110687, 0.02351177825381436, 0.056820842069505696, 0.0, 0.0022691561385959043, 0.0, 0.047810327840883196, 0.0035593344744073658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005251313918690477, 8.822708075920865e-06, 0.0, 0.09844314056385654, 0.0, 0.011117219805237645, 0.026300122106253866, 0.005067282652711981, 0.014159773631235799, 0.02764511951864089, 0.0, 0.001985304035862995, 0.0, 0.0003456394948264101, 0.0, 0.0009212252326539494, 0.0, 0.0017327044803211915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010532741652495474, 0.0, 0.0031379868257536323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008840997618542085, 0.0006663960618958762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000680624961427216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004616147938797712, 0.0, 0.0005677850215816269, 0.0, 0.0003295316259330806, 0.0, 0.0003417854190510012, 0.0011334070470995542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008828102865289475, 0.001617167452786376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009053155039762588, 0.00019565411376347476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008411477979691248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002371828785693662, 0.0003126527731537469, 2.8208025260029462e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013333885844278057 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.617949043813535, "coverage": 0.9999401319817202, "baseline_score": 47.20233619226747, "spot_peer_score": 24.738407125423187, "peer_archived_score": 23.617949043813535, "baseline_archived_score": 47.20233619226747, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.738407125423187 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704042883.12572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704042883.12572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 601, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" } ] }
