Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3480
{ "count": 6371, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3500", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3460", "results": [ { "id": 18555, "title": "Will an East African Federation exist and govern before 2040?", "short_title": "Actual East African Federation by 2040?", "url_title": "Actual East African Federation by 2040?", "slug": "actual-east-african-federation-by-2040", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-27T18:11:09.502589Z", "published_at": "2023-10-06T18:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.397441Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-06T18:46:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-06T18:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18555, "title": "Will an East African Federation exist and govern before 2040?", "created_at": "2023-08-27T18:11:09.502589Z", "open_time": "2023-10-06T18:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-08T18:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-08T18:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question and the background material below are copied from a [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11667/east-african-federation-before-2030/). While that version asks about the ratification of an agreement to form the East African Federation it may be that such an agreement is ratified without a functional East African Federation actually being formed. Or alternatively, an East African Federation could be formed by the merger of two countries and not satisfy the three country requirement of the other question.*\n\n---\n\nThe [East African Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Federation) (Swahili: *Shirikisho la Afrika Mashariki*) is a proposed political union of the seven sovereign states of the East African Community – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda – as a single federated sovereign state. The idea of this Federation has existed since the early 1960s, but has not yet come to fruition for a variety of reasons. In September 2018, [a committee was formed](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ready-for-a-united-states-of-east-africa-the-wheels-are-already-turning-1403564) to begin the process of drafting a regional constitution, and a draft constitution for the confederation was set to be written by the end of 2021 with its implementation by 2023; however, it is likely that this deadline will be [missed](https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/03/east-african-federation-looks-set-for-further-delay/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2040, a treaty constituting the East African Federation has legally come into effect and there is credible reporting that constituent states are taking steps towards making the Federation effective. Specifically, credible reports must be available that any one or more of the following has occurred:\n\n1. The Federation becomes a member of the [United Nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations) or [African Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_Union).\n2. The Federation officially accedes as a party to any of the following treaties:\n * Geneva Convention\n * Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons\n3. At least two constituent states enact laws, according to their internal legal requirements, proclaiming their dissolution as sovereign states, and these laws come into force.\n4. Common (not diplomatic or official) passports are issued to citizens in the name of the Federation only, without mentioning the constituent State, and these are routinely used for travel.\n5. Embassies of constituent states to each other are closed, redundant embassies in third countries are consolidated, single embassies of one constituent state are converted to Federation embassies, or new Federation embassies opened.\n6. A Federation government passes laws about matters delegated to it by the constituent states according to a constituent treaty, and those laws are actually enforced after coming into force.", "fine_print": "* At least two countries on the continent of Africa who are members of the East African Community (EAC) before joining must join to qualify. The EAC is defined as the organization created by the [Treaty for the Establishment of the East African Community in 1999](https://www.eac.int/eac-history); in case of doubts about succession, its successor shall be any entity whose constituent treaties are the result of amendments to the treaty or any other current constituting EAC instruments. Member countries who join after September of 2023 also qualify. If the newly resulting country or federation chooses to adopt a name other than the \"East African Federation\", this question will still resolve as **Yes** so long as other criteria are met.\n* If the Federation has existed in practice as described, however briefly, and dissolved before January 1, 2040, this still counts as **Yes**.\n* The new sovereign state needs to hold territory belonging in 2023 to at least two different sovereign states, *and* this must not be the result of territory transfer from an existing state to another at the time it happens.", "post_id": 18555, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747002840.822603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747002840.822603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.2091678476157031 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8141639188572266, 0.27120971924598375, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4083779534176923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290193.428911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290193.428911, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9386930487602366, 0.061306951239763346 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question and the background material below are copied from a [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11667/east-african-federation-before-2030/). While that version asks about the ratification of an agreement to form the East African Federation it may be that such an agreement is ratified without a functional East African Federation actually being formed. Or alternatively, an East African Federation could be formed by the merger of two countries and not satisfy the three country requirement of the other question.*\n\n---\n\nThe [East African Federation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_African_Federation) (Swahili: *Shirikisho la Afrika Mashariki*) is a proposed political union of the seven sovereign states of the East African Community – Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda – as a single federated sovereign state. The idea of this Federation has existed since the early 1960s, but has not yet come to fruition for a variety of reasons. In September 2018, [a committee was formed](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ready-for-a-united-states-of-east-africa-the-wheels-are-already-turning-1403564) to begin the process of drafting a regional constitution, and a draft constitution for the confederation was set to be written by the end of 2021 with its implementation by 2023; however, it is likely that this deadline will be [missed](https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/03/east-african-federation-looks-set-for-further-delay/)." }, { "id": 18551, "title": "Will space-based technologies facilitate the creation of an effective global system for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade before 2031?", "short_title": "Effective Wildlife Trade Satellite Tracking?", "url_title": "Effective Wildlife Trade Satellite Tracking?", "slug": "effective-wildlife-trade-satellite-tracking", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-26T17:37:08.532502Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.867356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18551, "title": "Will space-based technologies facilitate the creation of an effective global system for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-26T17:37:08.532502Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Illegal wildlife trade is a major global problem, threatening biodiversity and fueling organized crime. Space-based technologies, such as satellite imaging, could potentially be used to track and mitigate this illegal trade by providing near real-time monitoring of wildlife habitats, migration routes, and poaching activities. However, such a global system would require significant technological, legal, and diplomatic efforts.", "resolution_criteria": "1. The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report the successful establishment of an effective global system, facilitated by space-based technologies, for tracking and mitigating illegal wildlife trade.\n2. To be considered \"effective\" the system must be reported to produce a 5% measurable decrease in illegal wildlife poaching (or if no quantifiable estimate is provided a characterization of the reduction as \"significant\" or otherwise substantial).\n3. The space-based system need not be the sole contributor to the reduction, but their contribution should be identifiable and significant. For example, ground-based cameras that communicate via satellites to track wildlife and poaching activity would qualify.\n4. The use of satellites to produce better estimates that show less poaching does not qualify, satellite facilitated observation has to be directly implemented in enforcement.\n5. If no such system is established, or if it is not reported to be effective before 2031, the question will resolve as **No**.\n6. The onus of this question is on establishing the effectiveness of these technologies in achieving the stated goals, and conflicting reports, or ambiguous or mixed evidence, will not be sufficient.", "fine_print": "Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt.", "post_id": 18551, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719504996.798134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.2410347164 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.293 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719504996.798134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.2410347164 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.293 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7589652836, 0.2410347164 ], "means": [ 0.29693824245027434 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287946.86548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287946.86548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8599085193007816, 0.14009148069921837 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Illegal wildlife trade is a major global problem, threatening biodiversity and fueling organized crime. Space-based technologies, such as satellite imaging, could potentially be used to track and mitigate this illegal trade by providing near real-time monitoring of wildlife habitats, migration routes, and poaching activities. However, such a global system would require significant technological, legal, and diplomatic efforts." }, { "id": 18550, "title": "Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?", "short_title": "Hurricane Track Error Below 30 Miles by 2031?", "url_title": "Hurricane Track Error Below 30 Miles by 2031?", "slug": "hurricane-track-error-below-30-miles-by-2031", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-26T17:32:29.113772Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T02:58:07.850278Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-07-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18550, "title": "Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-26T17:32:29.113772Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-07-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The advent of space-based technologies has provided us with an unprecedented ability to monitor Earth's environment from a unique vantage point. This, in turn, has the potential to revolutionize our approach to disaster management, with more effective early warning systems for natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. However, predicting these events with sufficient lead time and accuracy remains a significant challenge.\n\nThe [National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) (NHC) of the US [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration) (NOAA), [assesses](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml) the track error and intensity error for its hurricane and tropical storm predictions. [According too the NHC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify2.shtml), track error is\n\n>Track forecast error is defined as the great-circle distance between a cyclone's forecast position and the best track position at the forecast verification time.\n\nThe [NHC also characterizes](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify8.shtml?) the 48 hour performance measures as follows\n\n>While the NHC produces forecasts for periods extending from 12 through 120 hours, the 48-hour forecast is often important for emergency managers and preparedness actions.\n\n<img src=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/ALtkerrtrd_noTD_sm.jpg\" alt=\"NHC Annual Average Track Errors for Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms and Hurricanes\" />\n*[National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml)*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any year between 2023 and 2030, inclusive, the [National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml) that the annual average track error for 48 hour forecasts of Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes has reached 30.0 nautical miles or less.", "fine_print": "* The numerical data from the [pdf](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/1970-present_OFCL_ATL_annual_trk_errors_noTDs.pdf) will be used if available.\n* This question will resolve when the complete 2030 data is available (along with all previous years), or on July 1, 2032, whichever comes first. In the event all of the data is not available or NHC stops publishing this data Metaculus may select an approximately equivalent source or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 18550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763348277.119852, "end_time": 1764581409.576693, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763348277.119852, "end_time": 1764581409.576693, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.46078913912451963 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6098676460491632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287937.195719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287937.195719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6100543059266602, 0.3899456940733398 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The advent of space-based technologies has provided us with an unprecedented ability to monitor Earth's environment from a unique vantage point. This, in turn, has the potential to revolutionize our approach to disaster management, with more effective early warning systems for natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. However, predicting these events with sufficient lead time and accuracy remains a significant challenge.\n\nThe [National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) (NHC) of the US [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Oceanic_and_Atmospheric_Administration) (NOAA), [assesses](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml) the track error and intensity error for its hurricane and tropical storm predictions. [According too the NHC](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify2.shtml), track error is\n\n>Track forecast error is defined as the great-circle distance between a cyclone's forecast position and the best track position at the forecast verification time.\n\nThe [NHC also characterizes](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify8.shtml?) the 48 hour performance measures as follows\n\n>While the NHC produces forecasts for periods extending from 12 through 120 hours, the 48-hour forecast is often important for emergency managers and preparedness actions.\n\n<img src=\"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/ALtkerrtrd_noTD_sm.jpg\" alt=\"NHC Annual Average Track Errors for Atlantic Basin Tropical Storms and Hurricanes\" />\n*[National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml)*" }, { "id": 18549, "title": "Will advancements in space-based observation systems lead to a significant reduction in illegal fishing activities in global marine regions before 2031?", "short_title": "Illegal Fishing and Satellite Monitoring", "url_title": "Illegal Fishing and Satellite Monitoring", "slug": "illegal-fishing-and-satellite-monitoring", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-26T17:21:34.378022Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T02:57:59.647660Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18549, "title": "Will advancements in space-based observation systems lead to a significant reduction in illegal fishing activities in global marine regions before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-26T17:21:34.378022Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a global problem causing significant ecological, economic, and social harm. Current enforcement mechanisms for preventing illegal fishing activities are often limited by the vastness and complexity of marine regions, making comprehensive monitoring a challenging task.\nWith advancements in technology, space-based observation systems like satellites and remote sensing technologies have become increasingly crucial in monitoring and protecting marine resources. These technologies can potentially provide real-time, wide-area monitoring capabilities that could significantly enhance the detection of illegal activities and environmental anomalies.\n\nAdvancements in space-based observation systems could have profound implications for marine conservation, sustainable fishing practices, and international law enforcement.", "resolution_criteria": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report a 5% or larger reduction (or if no quantifiable estimate is provided a characterization of the reduction as \"significant\" or otherwise substantial) in illegal fishing activities in global marine regions attributable to advancements in space-based observation systems. The reduction must apply broadly and not be isolated to a single location or small region.\n2. “Illegal fishing activities\" refer to activities that contravene national and international fishing laws, including, but not limited to, fishing without permission, fishing in closed areas, fishing in protected areas, fishing for protected species, and exceeding fishing quotas.\n4. The space-based observation systems need not be the sole contributor to the reduction, but their contribution should be identifiable and significant. The use of satellites to produce better estimates that show less illegal fishing does not qualify, satellite observation has to be directly implemented in enforcement.\n5. If such reports or demonstrations are not available before 2031, or if they indicate that the technology has not led to a significant reduction in illegal fishing activities, the question will resolve as **No**.\n6. The onus of this question is on establishing the effectiveness of these technologies in achieving the stated goals, and conflicting reports, or ambiguous or mixed evidence, will not be sufficient.", "fine_print": "Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt.", "post_id": 18549, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763348269.376614, "end_time": 1766286079.070036, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763348269.376614, "end_time": 1766286079.070036, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.28137474183256495 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8330381715449309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289992.050463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289992.050463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8536528367792732, 0.14634716322072686 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a global problem causing significant ecological, economic, and social harm. Current enforcement mechanisms for preventing illegal fishing activities are often limited by the vastness and complexity of marine regions, making comprehensive monitoring a challenging task.\nWith advancements in technology, space-based observation systems like satellites and remote sensing technologies have become increasingly crucial in monitoring and protecting marine resources. These technologies can potentially provide real-time, wide-area monitoring capabilities that could significantly enhance the detection of illegal activities and environmental anomalies.\n\nAdvancements in space-based observation systems could have profound implications for marine conservation, sustainable fishing practices, and international law enforcement." }, { "id": 18548, "title": "Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?", "short_title": "Von der Leyen COM President 2024 elections", "url_title": "Von der Leyen COM President 2024 elections", "slug": "von-der-leyen-com-president-2024-elections", "author_id": 118047, "author_username": "AndyPrenner", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-26T11:09:52.114074Z", "published_at": "2023-09-01T19:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.190077Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-01T19:32:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T13:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T13:50:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-01T19:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18548, "title": "Will Ursula von der Leyen be re-appointed as President of the European Commission following the 2024 European elections?", "created_at": "2023-08-26T11:09:52.114074Z", "open_time": "2023-09-01T19:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-03T19:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-03T19:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T13:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-17T13:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T13:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ursula von der Leyen (DE/EPP) is the current President of the European Commission. The European Commission President is elected for a 5-year term by the European Parliament after European elections, meaning her term will end in 2024, coinciding with the 2024 European Parliament elections. The European Council proposes a candidate, usually from the largest political group in the Parliament, considering election results. The Parliament must approve the candidate by an absolute majority, and then the European Council officially appoints the new President.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves yes if Ursula von der Leyen is officially appointed by the European Council as President of the European Commission after the European elections in June 2024 and before the end of the year 2024. \n\nResolves no if Von der Leyen is not appointed Commission President in 2024 (another candidate is appointed or negotiations continue beyond 2024).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18548, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721308340.412418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721308340.412418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7197199143090717 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2618107493250952, 0.0, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6464403937333578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30580867172256143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8792478106683608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5138604178499118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4539643988236515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.512823022774802, "coverage": 0.657058094653913, "baseline_score": 17.11488834669214, "spot_peer_score": -38.90887148722603, "peer_archived_score": 11.512823022774802, "baseline_archived_score": 17.11488834669214, "spot_peer_archived_score": -38.90887148722603 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720944104.174605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720944104.174605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.23768037073470216, 0.7623196292652978 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ursula von der Leyen (DE/EPP) is the current President of the European Commission. The European Commission President is elected for a 5-year term by the European Parliament after European elections, meaning her term will end in 2024, coinciding with the 2024 European Parliament elections. The European Council proposes a candidate, usually from the largest political group in the Parliament, considering election results. The Parliament must approve the candidate by an absolute majority, and then the European Council officially appoints the new President." }, { "id": 18545, "title": "Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?", "short_title": "US aircraft carrier sunk", "url_title": "US aircraft carrier sunk", "slug": "us-aircraft-carrier-sunk", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-25T23:10:27.691661Z", "published_at": "2023-08-29T23:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T16:32:22.769975Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-29T23:47:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-29T23:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18545, "title": "Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-08-25T23:10:27.691661Z", "open_time": "2023-08-29T23:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-30T06:56:19.704652Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-30T06:56:19.704652Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers) an American aircraft carrier was sunk in combat was at the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Despite this, [much speculation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/?sh=68e60f712a37) exists on the possibility of American aircraft carriers being destroyed in conflicts with adversaries such as China, Russia, or Iran.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2050, reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that a United States aircraft carrier has been sunk, destroyed, or damaged such that it must be decommissioned due to enemy military action. This question pertains to the [carrier vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_of_the_United_States_Navy) (CVs) class, NOT helicopter carriers (such as [LHD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landing_helicopter_dock)'s).", "fine_print": "* Any new or existing CV variant, as classified by the US, will be considered for this question.\n* Enemy military action will be considered to be any combative action from an opposing belligerent or combatant force, including terrorism and non-human action.", "post_id": 18545, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761496332.425063, "end_time": 1776498261.848955, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.303 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761496332.425063, "end_time": 1776498261.848955, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.303 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27683679518771626 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.786314291765898, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030645134464605966, 0.0, 0.0005612852165504251, 0.7532515393223272, 0.0, 0.5207312893320583, 0.5780890010866883, 0.542659352036535, 0.037286313441487653, 0.0, 1.1495538906087428, 0.34332323923577707, 0.0, 1.1691317229795504, 0.0591057465619563, 0.9193425272056973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.05536566612118, 0.005692210692547144, 0.8363923052450274, 0.19600271381795006, 0.0, 1.955547404223728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23153275329468304, 0.0, 0.03383492044223947, 0.008707034755549023, 0.39241044281454124, 0.0, 0.027700581072225252, 0.11296731134771772, 0.2796605246591077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6470039579466575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012018547428742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012750615313996135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00659673955321026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01614116511509263, 0.0, 0.2996406112495645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107509564145664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03146093229253167, 0.47744100242598864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22643861771824655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015257314047317206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0904897364644334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024985744145835546 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288573.574445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288573.574445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.869006157047684, 0.13099384295231595 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 149, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States military has long relied on aircraft carriers to project power and support its operations around the world. Due to their strategic value, these carriers are some of the most well-defended military targets in the world. The [last time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sunken_aircraft_carriers) an American aircraft carrier was sunk in combat was at the battle of Iwo Jima in 1945. Despite this, [much speculation](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/01/10/think-tank-the-us-fleet-could-lose-four-aircraft-carriers-defending-taiwan/?sh=68e60f712a37) exists on the possibility of American aircraft carriers being destroyed in conflicts with adversaries such as China, Russia, or Iran." }, { "id": 18541, "title": "Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?", "short_title": "China Military Base in BRICS", "url_title": "China Military Base in BRICS", "slug": "china-military-base-in-brics", "author_id": 152350, "author_username": "Clearview", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-25T07:17:55.453439Z", "published_at": "2023-08-26T19:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:01:12.078031Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-26T19:59:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-26T19:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18541, "title": "Will China operate at least one military base in a BRICS country before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-08-25T07:17:55.453439Z", "open_time": "2023-08-26T19:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-28T19:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-28T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of August 2023, China has only one military base overseas - a naval base in Djibouti, Africa. However, there are clear indications that they are interested in expanding their global power projection capabilities, and indeed some overseas naval bases are allegedly under construction in Asia and Africa.\n\nWith the adding of seven new member countries to BRICS, an alliance primarily focused on economic and diplomatic partnership, it is an important question regarding the standoff between East and West whether BRICS will take a more militaristic aspect as well. Overseas Chinese military bases would be a strong indication of this.\n\n[China may be planning overseas naval bases] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/27/china-building-overseas-naval-bases-across-asia-and-africa-say-analysts", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve to YES if either the Chinese government or US intelligence community publicly announces a Chinese military base in a BRICS country before January 1st, 2026.\n\nThe country needs to be an official member of BRICS, thus the seven new nations that were invited in August 2023 will count towards YES only after January 2024, when they're projected to officially join.\n\nIf the Chinese base is in a country which only afterwards joins BRICS, the question will still resolve to YES.", "fine_print": "US intelligence community's announcement requires a \"high likelihood of Chinese operated base\". In the event of numerical announcement (which is unlikely), \"high likelihood\" means a confidence of 90% or more.\n\nThe base needs to be projected to operate indefinitely, meaning that the Chinese operating a military base for the duration of temporary exercises (<1 year) do not count towards YES.\n\nNaval bases and a military airfields both count as military bases.\n\nAnnouncement from Pentagon or a US government institution of equal significance (e.g. White House) counts as Intelligence Community announcement.", "post_id": 18541, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762457913.219, "end_time": 1764153965.166, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.084 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762457913.219, "end_time": 1764153965.166, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.084 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.916, 0.084 ], "means": [ 0.16520294541517141 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1122128468034793, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.664386121578093, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287831.479707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287831.479707, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.644918010641347, 0.3550819893586529 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 141, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of August 2023, China has only one military base overseas - a naval base in Djibouti, Africa. However, there are clear indications that they are interested in expanding their global power projection capabilities, and indeed some overseas naval bases are allegedly under construction in Asia and Africa.\n\nWith the adding of seven new member countries to BRICS, an alliance primarily focused on economic and diplomatic partnership, it is an important question regarding the standoff between East and West whether BRICS will take a more militaristic aspect as well. Overseas Chinese military bases would be a strong indication of this.\n\n[China may be planning overseas naval bases] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/27/china-building-overseas-naval-bases-across-asia-and-africa-say-analysts" }, { "id": 18535, "title": "Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?", "short_title": "Access Granted to Joe & Hunter Biden Records?", "url_title": "Access Granted to Joe & Hunter Biden Records?", "slug": "access-granted-to-joe-hunter-biden-records", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-24T22:39:28.672953Z", "published_at": "2023-08-26T21:51:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.012745Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-26T21:51:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T17:00:00Z", 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"2023-08-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer has [requested](https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-seeks-nara-records-revealing-how-then-vp-biden-mixed-official-government-duties-with-familys-influence-peddling/) that the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) provide special access to then-Vice President Joe Biden’s records concerning his tenure and activities overlapping with his son’s dealings in Ukraine. This request pertains to unredacted documents and communications, specifically those in which then-Vice President Joe Biden used a pseudonym, along with several other associated names, and drafts of a specific speech made in December 2015.\n\nThe Committee is investigating meetings and communications between President Biden, certain family members, and their business associates during his tenure as Vice President. The Committee’s stated objective is to address potential deficiencies in the existing legal framework concerning ethics laws and disclosure of financial interests related to the immediate family of Vice Presidents and Presidents.\n\nThe House Oversight Committee claims to have evidence suggesting that the Biden family has been involved in schemes, essentially capitalizing on their 'brand', which reportedly garnered millions from foreign nationals.\n\nThe full text of the [letter](https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-seeks-nara-records-revealing-how-then-vp-biden-mixed-official-government-duties-with-familys-influence-peddling/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as:\n\n\n* \"Yes\" if, before September 1, 2023, there is official confirmation from either the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), the Committee on Oversight and Accountability, or credible news sources, stating that the Committee on Oversight and Accountability was granted access to *any* of the records mentioned in Chairman James Comer's letter, *in response to the letter*. The phrase “unrestricted special access” does not need to appear. \n\nAny subset of the following relevant documents, per Comer's letter, can be provided for positive resolution: \n\n1. Complete, unredacted versions of all documents from Case Number 2023-0022-F; \n2. Any document or communication in which a pseudonym for Vice President Joe Biden was included either as a sender, recipient, copied or was included in the contents of the document or communication, including but not limited to Robert Peters, Robin Ware, and JRB Ware;\n3. Any document or communication in which Hunter Biden, Eric Schwerin, or Devon Archer was included either as a sender, recipient, copied, or was included in the contents of the document or communication; and\n4. All drafts from November 1, 2015 to December 9, 2015 of then-Vice President Biden’s speech delivered to the Ukrainian Rada on December 9, 2015.\n\n* \"No\" if, before September 1, 2023, no confirmation as described above appears or if there is confirmation that the request was denied.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18535, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693413787.105222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693413787.105222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.047841416678134 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0028190640590402, 6.125386488485271, 1.1656000397528072, 2.3624721883381343, 0.3857471004269987, 1.30733015756357, 0.04857271809392319, 0.4903871435773225, 0.0014822998514409601, 0.016194143319162562, 1.0077147504067718, 0.020500370748786623, 0.14636439202690826, 0.0, 0.014318380015828209, 0.1877490975803815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04843483947191467, 0.0, 0.06866972311929001, 0.0, 0.11492808191066167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011058522686470973, 0.0, 0.04297263601330976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031666067639848578, 0.0, 0.0061954904951238765, 0.0, 0.06272559655183406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35701212417094697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.034220669386876, "coverage": 0.9954921464652089, "baseline_score": 77.61348060865676, "spot_peer_score": 11.055056606094764, "peer_archived_score": 5.034220669386876, "baseline_archived_score": 77.61348060865676, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.055056606094764 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693413787.153136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693413787.153136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9951738624205253, 0.004826137579474745 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 203, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer has [requested](https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-seeks-nara-records-revealing-how-then-vp-biden-mixed-official-government-duties-with-familys-influence-peddling/) that the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) provide special access to then-Vice President Joe Biden’s records concerning his tenure and activities overlapping with his son’s dealings in Ukraine. This request pertains to unredacted documents and communications, specifically those in which then-Vice President Joe Biden used a pseudonym, along with several other associated names, and drafts of a specific speech made in December 2015.\n\nThe Committee is investigating meetings and communications between President Biden, certain family members, and their business associates during his tenure as Vice President. The Committee’s stated objective is to address potential deficiencies in the existing legal framework concerning ethics laws and disclosure of financial interests related to the immediate family of Vice Presidents and Presidents.\n\nThe House Oversight Committee claims to have evidence suggesting that the Biden family has been involved in schemes, essentially capitalizing on their 'brand', which reportedly garnered millions from foreign nationals.\n\nThe full text of the [letter](https://oversight.house.gov/release/comer-seeks-nara-records-revealing-how-then-vp-biden-mixed-official-government-duties-with-familys-influence-peddling/)." }, { "id": 18531, "title": "Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?", "short_title": "Will Prigozhin be seen before March 2024?", "url_title": "Will Prigozhin be seen before March 2024?", "slug": "will-prigozhin-be-seen-before-march-2024", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-23T20:30:56.173340Z", "published_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.903011Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-23T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-23T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T15:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 156, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18531, "title": "Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?", "created_at": "2023-08-23T20:30:56.173340Z", "open_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-24T06:05:40.692342Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-24T06:05:40.692342Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T15:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-24T15:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-23T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-23T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-war-news/prigozhin-chief-of-the-wagner-group-was-listed-among-the-passengers-of-a-business-jet-that-crashed?smid=url-share):\n\n> Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief mutiny against Russia’s military leadership in June, was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed Wednesday [23 August 2023], killing all 10 people aboard, according to Russian aviation authorities.\n\nAnd further:\n\n> Russian media have reported that the plane that crashed on Wednesday was an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet with the tail number RA-02795. Past news reports have linked the plane to Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner.\n\n> Russian media reported that eight bodies had so far been recovered.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Yevgeny V. Prigozhin makes a public appearance at any time between 23 August 2023 to 23 February 2024, as reported by credible sources. If Prigozhin's dead body is identified before 23 February 2024, *or* if he does not make any public appearance in that time, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18531, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708617547.052407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708617547.052407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0045232587180682945 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.84284891795642, 6.199767509883612, 0.12442593205507928, 0.0010774676632900428, 0.0004629586516335695, 0.22871385210762446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01822949080189032, 0.06774280489566085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.368453063512443e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.8703874850139091, "coverage": 0.9999519630132953, "baseline_score": 99.08586462946157, "spot_peer_score": 50.295098403758494, "peer_archived_score": 0.8703874850139091, "baseline_archived_score": 99.08586462946157, "spot_peer_archived_score": 50.295098403758494 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708674615.350867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708674615.350867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 156, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 267, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-war-news/prigozhin-chief-of-the-wagner-group-was-listed-among-the-passengers-of-a-business-jet-that-crashed?smid=url-share):\n\n> Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief mutiny against Russia’s military leadership in June, was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed Wednesday [23 August 2023], killing all 10 people aboard, according to Russian aviation authorities.\n\nAnd further:\n\n> Russian media have reported that the plane that crashed on Wednesday was an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet with the tail number RA-02795. Past news reports have linked the plane to Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner.\n\n> Russian media reported that eight bodies had so far been recovered." }, { "id": 18530, "title": "Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?", "short_title": "Prigozhin Dead before November 2023?", "url_title": "Prigozhin Dead before November 2023?", "slug": "prigozhin-dead-before-november-2023", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-23T20:09:25.689862Z", "published_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.871716Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T01:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-30T01:39:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 126, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18530, "title": "Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-23T20:09:25.689862Z", "open_time": "2023-08-24T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-24T04:24:39.295183Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-24T04:24:39.295183Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-30T01:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-30T01:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T01:39:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-war-news/prigozhin-chief-of-the-wagner-group-was-listed-among-the-passengers-of-a-business-jet-that-crashed?smid=url-share):\n\n> Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief mutiny against Russia’s military leadership in June, was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed Wednesday [23 August 2023], killing all 10 people aboard, according to Russian aviation authorities.\n\nAnd further:\n\n> Russian media have reported that the plane that crashed on Wednesday was an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet with the tail number RA-02795. Past news reports have linked the plane to Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner.\n\n> Russian media reported that eight bodies had so far been recovered.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources state before November 1, 2023 that Yevgeny V. Prigozhin is confirmed to be dead (due to any cause). This question will resolve as **No** if Prigozhin makes any public appearance before November 1, 2023, **or** if his health or whereabouts remain unconfirmed at that time.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18530, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693354585.003152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693354585.003152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9688950908630503 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03975688837979246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2057031025953372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5262563034192477, 0.03505053904480797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5516583543549273, 0.009395413483958896, 0.0023470406074006245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018797137840382663, 0.0, 1.0605087684369732, 3.625358952009665e-05, 0.0, 0.042310736294626096, 0.0, 1.1333243909546824, 0.002909403059054138, 0.7030405199197987, 1.1573749267087257, 15.483812198859884 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.3653701276143928, "coverage": 0.08753556139308592, "baseline_score": 8.585789909969007, "spot_peer_score": 9.042999591667657, "peer_archived_score": 0.3653701276143928, "baseline_archived_score": 8.585789909969007, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.042999591667657 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693354585.043937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693354585.043937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.027729328865363723, 0.9722706711346363 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 204, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/23/world/prigozhin-russia-ukraine-war-news/prigozhin-chief-of-the-wagner-group-was-listed-among-the-passengers-of-a-business-jet-that-crashed?smid=url-share):\n\n> Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group who staged a brief mutiny against Russia’s military leadership in June, was listed as a passenger on a plane that crashed Wednesday [23 August 2023], killing all 10 people aboard, according to Russian aviation authorities.\n\nAnd further:\n\n> Russian media have reported that the plane that crashed on Wednesday was an Embraer Legacy 600 business jet with the tail number RA-02795. Past news reports have linked the plane to Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner.\n\n> Russian media reported that eight bodies had so far been recovered." }, { "id": 18525, "title": "Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?", "short_title": "Non-proprietary LLM in top 5?", "url_title": "Non-proprietary LLM in top 5?", "slug": "non-proprietary-llm-in-top-5", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-23T05:41:48.025904Z", "published_at": "2023-08-25T18:53:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.849986Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-25T18:53:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-25T18:53:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18525, "title": "Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-23T05:41:48.025904Z", "open_time": "2023-08-25T18:53:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-08T18:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-08T18:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Chatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems.\n\nAs of August 22, 2023, the top five models on the leaderboard, as ranked by Elo, are all proprietary:\n\n| Model | ⭐ Arena Elo rating | 📈 MT-bench (score) | MMLU | License |\n|--------------------|--------------------|---------------------|------|--------------------|\n| GPT-4 | 1206 | 8.99 | 86.4 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-1 | 1166 | 7.9 | 77 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-instant-1 | 1138 | 7.85 | 73.4 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-2 | 1135 | 8.06 | 78.5 | Proprietary |\n| GPT-3.5-turbo | 1122 | 7.94 | 70 | Proprietary |\n| Vicuna-33B | 1096 | 7.12 | 59.2 | Non-commercial |\n| Vicuna-13B | 1051 | 6.57 | 55.8 | Llama 2 Community |\n| MPT-30B-chat | 1046 | 6.39 | 50.4 | CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 |\n| WizardLM-13B-v1.1 | 1040 | 6.76 | 50 | Non-commercial |\n| Guanaco-33B | 1038 | 6.53 | 57.6 | Non-commercial |", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, at noon ET on September 30, 2023, an LLM that is listed as having any non-proprietary license is listed in the top 5 models on the [chat.lmsys.org](https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard) leaderboard.\n\nThe question resolves **No** if each of the top 5 models is listed as having a \"proprietary\" license.\n\nThe leaderboard will be sorted by \"[Arena ELO rating](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/).\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696080299.798561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696080299.798561, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.09776083024053005 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.778769937343709, 6.637576997556348, 1.2411433904546771, 0.19898876831476764, 0.0224267048862419, 0.023570657402855074, 0.04139349889794634, 0.007064033012232248, 0.2195808587452695, 0.0027279914748398883, 0.004307781981663051, 0.0, 0.0077707472895727076, 0.0, 0.0014396715385694681, 0.002576560229569946, 0.0027977026545892903, 0.2390473384080099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289965199472163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046059384244688986, 0.0, 0.014339583406843433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034246513430728643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004530981350361459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.260885861553427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010633760576014552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001213226150373535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00036601963165768176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007857345343876863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022111209728182583 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.73077757936565, "coverage": 0.9999863140032696, "baseline_score": 66.19340589786665, "spot_peer_score": 32.69464464218523, "peer_archived_score": 22.73077757936565, "baseline_archived_score": 66.19340589786665, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.69464464218523 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696080299.858234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696080299.858234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9952612420542755, 0.00473875794572454 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 509, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Chatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems.\n\nAs of August 22, 2023, the top five models on the leaderboard, as ranked by Elo, are all proprietary:\n\n| Model | ⭐ Arena Elo rating | 📈 MT-bench (score) | MMLU | License |\n|--------------------|--------------------|---------------------|------|--------------------|\n| GPT-4 | 1206 | 8.99 | 86.4 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-1 | 1166 | 7.9 | 77 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-instant-1 | 1138 | 7.85 | 73.4 | Proprietary |\n| Claude-2 | 1135 | 8.06 | 78.5 | Proprietary |\n| GPT-3.5-turbo | 1122 | 7.94 | 70 | Proprietary |\n| Vicuna-33B | 1096 | 7.12 | 59.2 | Non-commercial |\n| Vicuna-13B | 1051 | 6.57 | 55.8 | Llama 2 Community |\n| MPT-30B-chat | 1046 | 6.39 | 50.4 | CC-BY-NC-SA-4.0 |\n| WizardLM-13B-v1.1 | 1040 | 6.76 | 50 | Non-commercial |\n| Guanaco-33B | 1038 | 6.53 | 57.6 | Non-commercial |" }, { "id": 18523, "title": "Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?", "short_title": "BA.2.86 a Variant of Interest?", "url_title": "BA.2.86 a Variant of Interest?", "slug": "ba286-a-variant-of-interest", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-23T02:05:36.665267Z", "published_at": "2023-08-23T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.538427Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-23T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-23T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18523, "title": "Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-23T02:05:36.665267Z", "open_time": "2023-08-23T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-23T21:15:54.009951Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-23T21:15:54.009951Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02656-9), \"Researchers are racing to determine whether a highly mutated coronavirus variant that has popped up in three continents will be a global concern — or much ado about nothing.\"\n\nOn August 17th, the WHO labeled BA.2.86 a \"Variant Under Monitoring,\" noting \"mutations relative to putative ancestor BA.2\" and \"Only 3 sequences available. Added as VUM based on the large number of mutations identified.\"\n\nWHO could designate BA.2.86 a \"[Variant of Interest](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants),\" a designation used for:\n\n> - A SARS-CoV-2 variant with genetic changes that are predicted or known to affect virus characteristics such as transmissibility, virulence, antibody evasion, susceptibility to therapeutics and detectability; AND\n> - identified to have a growth advantage over other circulating variants in more than one WHO region with increasing relative prevalence alongside increasing number of cases over time, or other apparent epidemiological impacts to suggest an emerging risk to global public health. \n\n[Ars Technica reports](https://arstechnica.com/health/2023/08/ba-2-86-shows-just-how-risky-slacking-off-on-covid-monitoring-is/) that BA.2.86 has gained attention because of \" 34 mutations in its spike gene relative to BA.2, the omicron sublineage from which it descended. This number of spike mutations between BA.2.86 and BA.2 is chillingly similar to the number of mutations seen between the original omicron (BA.1) and the ancestral Wuhan strain.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2023, the WHO lists BA.2.86 as a \"Variant of Interest\" on their [\"Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants\" page](https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, BA.2.86 includes any BA.2.86.x pango lineage. Variants that include genetic features of BA.2.86, but which are not classified as a BA.2.86.x pango lineages, are not sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "post_id": 18523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696096495.638067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696096495.638067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.025477782279422666 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.79339701875429, 4.506607317692117, 0.10160998748080612, 0.2688365966302467, 0.38167053064622414, 2.0346490247542635, 0.0013836847296133652, 0.0015649527945986303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8804720393506984, 0.0030969534085871294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019810935263033526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003977768556107484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03432426661980639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014324495277256958, 0.6200210908481142, 0.0, 0.0012076653337255124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004287750568701284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01925940697571402, 0.0005987133726784101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.888960623282995e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018726136479240064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010224124090346844, 0.0, 0.00023712164777583806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007254371728824626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035718598937916577 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.807273819874384, "coverage": 0.9999938464903257, "baseline_score": 80.8551547430639, "spot_peer_score": 56.52873776603019, "peer_archived_score": 14.807273819874384, "baseline_archived_score": 80.8551547430639, "spot_peer_archived_score": 56.52873776603019 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696096495.669977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696096495.669977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 605, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02656-9), \"Researchers are racing to determine whether a highly mutated coronavirus variant that has popped up in three continents will be a global concern — or much ado about nothing.\"\n\nOn August 17th, the WHO labeled BA.2.86 a \"Variant Under Monitoring,\" noting \"mutations relative to putative ancestor BA.2\" and \"Only 3 sequences available. Added as VUM based on the large number of mutations identified.\"\n\nWHO could designate BA.2.86 a \"[Variant of Interest](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants),\" a designation used for:\n\n> - A SARS-CoV-2 variant with genetic changes that are predicted or known to affect virus characteristics such as transmissibility, virulence, antibody evasion, susceptibility to therapeutics and detectability; AND\n> - identified to have a growth advantage over other circulating variants in more than one WHO region with increasing relative prevalence alongside increasing number of cases over time, or other apparent epidemiological impacts to suggest an emerging risk to global public health. \n\n[Ars Technica reports](https://arstechnica.com/health/2023/08/ba-2-86-shows-just-how-risky-slacking-off-on-covid-monitoring-is/) that BA.2.86 has gained attention because of \" 34 mutations in its spike gene relative to BA.2, the omicron sublineage from which it descended. This number of spike mutations between BA.2.86 and BA.2 is chillingly similar to the number of mutations seen between the original omicron (BA.1) and the ancestral Wuhan strain.\"" }, { "id": 18515, "title": "Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?", "short_title": "Death from Terrorism in Sweden before 2031?", "url_title": "Death from Terrorism in Sweden before 2031?", "slug": "death-from-terrorism-in-sweden-before-2031", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-22T06:04:33.633325Z", "published_at": "2023-08-24T15:11:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-02T06:56:18.857245Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-24T15:11:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-24T15:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18515, "title": "Will a terrorist attack in Sweden cause at least one death before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-08-22T06:04:33.633325Z", "open_time": "2023-08-24T15:11:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-24T18:38:47.649829Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-24T18:38:47.649829Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Swedish security services publishes a Terrorism Threat Level, [which according to the police](https://polisen.se/en/the-swedish-police/Raising-general-awareness-of-terrorism-related-issues/questions-and-answers-about-the-raised-terror-threat-level/)\n\n> has [been at a] heightened threat level (3) for almost 13 years. We have spent many years enhancing our capacity. \n\nMore recently, the [Swedish Security Services raised this threat level to 4](https://säkerhetspolisen.se/ovriga-sidor/nyheter/nyheter/2023-08-17-hojning-av-terrorhotnivan-till-hogt-hot.html):\n\n> The threat level changes from heightened (3) to high (4) on a five-point scale. Raising the threat level is supposed to work as a signal to the relevant authorities about the importance of continued work with actions that lower the risk of a terrorist attack occurring.\n\nThe reason is given by the same source as\n\n> The threat toward Sweden has gradually changed and the attack threat from actors related to violent Islamism has increased during the year. Sweden has gone from being a legitimate target for terrorist attacks to becoming a prioritised target.\n\nThe five-point terrorism threat scale has the following fuzzy descriptions:\n\n1. No threat identified\n\n2. Limited threat\n\n3. Heightened threat\n\n4. High threat\n\n5. Very high threat\n\nThis question is, to some degree, about figuring out the practical consequences of this raised threat level.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a terrorist attack has resulted in at least one civilian or innocent death in Sweden between 1 August 2023 to 1 January 2031. Determination of whether a death is attributed to \"terrorism\" or some other homicide will be determined by the swedish government and/or police if they publicly state that the crime is being investigated or charged as a terrorist attack (conviction is not required).", "fine_print": "Any terrorist attack where only the perpetrators die will be excluded from this question.", "post_id": 18515, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763339258.668397, "end_time": 1764673794.146942, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763339258.668397, "end_time": 1764673794.146942, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.843517019926433 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1157778373207565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6451412030425718, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1138308099709628, 0.6645775164919735, 0.22459236340393357, 0.14417292188463762, 1.8083181450677592 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287821.959644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287821.959644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.28879056639412926, 0.7112094336058707 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Swedish security services publishes a Terrorism Threat Level, [which according to the police](https://polisen.se/en/the-swedish-police/Raising-general-awareness-of-terrorism-related-issues/questions-and-answers-about-the-raised-terror-threat-level/)\n\n> has [been at a] heightened threat level (3) for almost 13 years. We have spent many years enhancing our capacity. \n\nMore recently, the [Swedish Security Services raised this threat level to 4](https://säkerhetspolisen.se/ovriga-sidor/nyheter/nyheter/2023-08-17-hojning-av-terrorhotnivan-till-hogt-hot.html):\n\n> The threat level changes from heightened (3) to high (4) on a five-point scale. Raising the threat level is supposed to work as a signal to the relevant authorities about the importance of continued work with actions that lower the risk of a terrorist attack occurring.\n\nThe reason is given by the same source as\n\n> The threat toward Sweden has gradually changed and the attack threat from actors related to violent Islamism has increased during the year. Sweden has gone from being a legitimate target for terrorist attacks to becoming a prioritised target.\n\nThe five-point terrorism threat scale has the following fuzzy descriptions:\n\n1. No threat identified\n\n2. Limited threat\n\n3. Heightened threat\n\n4. High threat\n\n5. Very high threat\n\nThis question is, to some degree, about figuring out the practical consequences of this raised threat level." }, { "id": 18497, "title": "Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?", "short_title": "1500 annual NYC murders before 2050", "url_title": "1500 annual NYC murders before 2050", "slug": "1500-annual-nyc-murders-before-2050", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-21T16:41:09.253384Z", "published_at": "2023-10-07T20:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.061115Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-07T20:08:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-07T20:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32727, "name": "Brooklyn Tech Forecasting Community", "type": "community", "slug": "bths", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 133576, "username": "Quincy", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ] }, "question": { "id": 18497, "title": "Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-08-21T16:41:09.253384Z", "open_time": "2023-10-07T20:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-09T20:08:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-09T20:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[New York City](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City) is the largest city in the United States, and therefore it is the focus of significant media attention. Homicides [briefly surged during COVID](https://apnews.com/article/new-york-shootings-new-york-city-violence-coronavirus-pandemic-b1c52b8071219052fd713a6b83999698), causing stories to appear in the media fearing [a return to the \"bad old days\"](https://thecrimereport.org/2021/03/03/is-new-york-citys-spike-in-violence-a-return-to-the-bad-old-days/). However, [homicides have since declined](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/nyregion/shootings-nyc-crime.html).\n\nFor reference, there were [438 homicides](https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/historical-crime-data/seven-major-felony-offenses-2000-2022.pdf) reported in 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the New York City Police Department (or equivalent future organization) officially reports the number of murders (and non-negligent manslaughters) for a year to be at least 1,500. The data can be accessed at [this site](https://www.nyc.gov/site/nypd/stats/crime-statistics/historical.page).", "fine_print": "If New York City ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as Ambiguous. \n\nAlso, death tolls must be from non-terrorist actions. In the scenario where deaths due to a terror attack are included in NYPD data, all terrorism-related deaths will be subtracted from the final number of murders for the year.", "post_id": 18497, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752691185.477106, "end_time": 1779504452.764749, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752691185.477106, "end_time": 1779504452.764749, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.11008969359003457 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2251319105471636, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 1.2639310103124692, 0.0, 0.5839769355880425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.32526806357643256, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287659.588905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287659.588905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.967079694951069, 0.03292030504893099 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[New York City](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City) is the largest city in the United States, and therefore it is the focus of significant media attention. Homicides [briefly surged during COVID](https://apnews.com/article/new-york-shootings-new-york-city-violence-coronavirus-pandemic-b1c52b8071219052fd713a6b83999698), causing stories to appear in the media fearing [a return to the \"bad old days\"](https://thecrimereport.org/2021/03/03/is-new-york-citys-spike-in-violence-a-return-to-the-bad-old-days/). However, [homicides have since declined](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/nyregion/shootings-nyc-crime.html).\n\nFor reference, there were [438 homicides](https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/analysis_and_planning/historical-crime-data/seven-major-felony-offenses-2000-2022.pdf) reported in 2022." }, { "id": 18496, "title": "Will at least one US state secede by 2070?", "short_title": "US State Secession 2070", "url_title": "US State Secession 2070", "slug": "us-state-secession-2070", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112639, "username": "emilowk" } ], "created_at": "2023-08-21T16:17:02.208453Z", "published_at": "2023-08-29T23:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:07:22.065283Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-29T23:56:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2071-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2071-01-02T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-29T23:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18496, "title": "Will at least one US state secede by 2070?", "created_at": "2023-08-21T16:17:02.208453Z", "open_time": "2023-08-29T23:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-31T06:40:34.763198Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-31T06:40:34.763198Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2071-01-02T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2071-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2071-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies) Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act) However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War) However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union. ](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/) If a US state successfully secedes by 2070, which ones will secede?", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if any US state leaves the union. \n\nThe procedure to leave the Union need not go through official legislative channels (e.g. introducing a bill to leave the union and this bill receives majority support in the state legislature).\n\nIn case the process does not occur through official legislative channels, the question resolves positively if credible news media reports that the US State has seceded or has been ejected out of the union.\n\nPositive resolution requires the relevant state to have existed at least one year prior to its secession. For example, granting entry to the union to some territory, and subsequently revoking it within one year is not sufficient for positive resolution.", "fine_print": "If the United States ceases to exist all at once (such as the result of a nuclear war), the question will resolve as ambiguous.", "post_id": 18496, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758492431.92648, "end_time": 1842774734.813907, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758492431.92648, "end_time": 1842774734.813907, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12882326815816486 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4123248810395285, 0.09996405000961155, 0.18997268947151003, 1.2579541690594735, 0.1350166315751149, 1.2856102517463772, 0.46404561502386255, 0.31791269281136625, 0.6062666629314708, 0.6609704774759386, 0.9723850680767783, 0.0, 1.358261396234804, 0.0, 0.3061666528158118, 0.5625517267640215, 0.0, 0.04583440182682791, 0.11980469871044437, 0.0, 0.044242474607622054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9225774080436027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03282480256284937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7197018749430008, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053483974712060484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287546.087396, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287546.087396, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9568644398846383, 0.043135560115361675 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies) Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act) However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War) However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union. ](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/) If a US state successfully secedes by 2070, which ones will secede?" }, { "id": 18444, "title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?", "short_title": "UK Response if China Invades Taiwan 2035?", "url_title": "UK Response if China Invades Taiwan 2035?", "slug": "uk-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-21T15:55:49.554171Z", "published_at": "2023-09-09T21:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T22:06:14.882174Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-09T21:46:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, 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"user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T04:07:17.498268Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T04:07:17.498268Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18444, "title": "If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the United Kingdom respond with military forces?", "created_at": "2023-08-21T15:55:49.554171Z", "open_time": "2023-09-09T21:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-10T11:17:32.241000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-10T11:17:32.241000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n\n* [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n\n* [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n \n* [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8470/japan-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035)\n\n\nWith tensions in the Taiwan Strait at a boiling point, it has been reported that [the United States](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html) is considering becoming militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region. Since the United States is the leading partner in NATO, it's possible that other NATO members could multilaterally be involved in a conflict, as happened [in Iraq](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-National_Force_%E2%80%93_Iraq). Such a partner might be the United Kingdom, which fought in Iraq and has [fought China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars) [several times before.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War)", "resolution_criteria": "If China does not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before January 1, 2035, then this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. If China does invade Taiwan, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the United Kingdom responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Chinese invasion.\n\nIn line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10923), China will be considered to have launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan if either of these occur:\n\n* The [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/) and the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/) **both** report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.\n\n* At least 1,000 military personnel from the [People's Liberation Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army) have been deployed to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule.\n\nThe United Kingdom will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Chinese infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the British government or British military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, and covert operations to e.g. assassinate Chinese nationals, will also **not** count.", "fine_print": "In the event of a breakup or change to the composition of the United Kingdom, this question will resolve according to the response or lack thereof of the country of England or its controlling government.", "post_id": 18444, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763330764.590278, "end_time": 1765676367.035817, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763330764.590278, "end_time": 1765676367.035817, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.2614492075621453 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.21662346214107564, 0.19143291410203872, 0.07344717902097064, 0.24856943683078098, 1.2598952599356874, 0.010679897806566082, 0.5214209506007933, 0.17478861699095682, 0.8089542125777679, 1.3161390909353656, 0.058146549431971825, 0.4928102103901503, 0.0, 0.0142951068305281, 2.4068580016728096, 0.7988190353498241, 0.0005317208022573057, 0.46560035189482807, 0.4092289835277132, 0.9000840546259763, 0.2014653080356482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3485022334916162, 0.0, 0.05069370743136902, 0.6878113878105488, 0.0, 0.5843344618389164, 0.0, 0.8999546713320077, 0.08121334249161945, 0.4396563536075222, 0.01429437190818957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041019429342124485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4397301097993673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3405736360604386, 0.0117915453441316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8620789255779965, 0.0, 0.214511481729654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005007836331890419, 0.015697917683711572, 0.0, 0.11964891568324479, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3095016830744855, 0.0, 0.00965371437268609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27439660300288415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001956091515936486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26318314082231875 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289658.96408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289658.96408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8615620571971563, 0.13843794280284372 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 162, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Related questions on Metaculus:\n\n* [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n\n* [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n \n* [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will Japan respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8470/japan-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035)\n\n\nWith tensions in the Taiwan Strait at a boiling point, it has been reported that [the United States](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/politics/biden-taiwan-china-japan-intl-hnk/index.html) is considering becoming militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region. Since the United States is the leading partner in NATO, it's possible that other NATO members could multilaterally be involved in a conflict, as happened [in Iraq](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-National_Force_%E2%80%93_Iraq). Such a partner might be the United Kingdom, which fought in Iraq and has [fought China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars) [several times before.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War)" }, { "id": 18437, "title": "Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?", "short_title": "Hawaiian Electric Bankruptcy Before 2025?", "url_title": "Hawaiian Electric Bankruptcy Before 2025?", "slug": "hawaiian-electric-bankruptcy-before-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-18T20:47:07.882148Z", "published_at": "2023-08-20T03:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.865556Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-20T03:36:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-20T03:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18437, "title": "Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-08-18T20:47:07.882148Z", "open_time": "2023-08-20T03:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-22T03:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-22T03:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T20:53:17.455500Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., is owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries, a holding company which also owns American Savings Bank. (See 2022 annual report pdf [here](https://s2.q4cdn.com/268623243/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/Hawaiian-Electric-2022-Annual-Report.pdf)).\n\nThe August 2023 wildfires in Lahaina, Hawaii killed at least 106 people, according to the latest [update](https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12710) from the County of Maui. A class-action lawsuit alleges that the electric company “chose not to deenergize their power lines during the High Wind Watch and Red Flag Warning conditions for Maui before the Lahaina Fire started.\" The stock price plunged 47% in the week following the fires, to a 13-year low. [(CNN story)](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/investing/hawaiian-electric-maui-fires-lawsuit/index.html)\n\nIn an 8-K filed August 18, 2023, the company [stated](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/46207/000035470723000071/exhibit991.htm) that although it is seeking advice from \"various experts\" including restructuring advisors, its \"goal is not to restructure the company but to endure as a financially strong utility that Maui and this state need.\"\n\nIn recent years, other electric utility companies have gone bankrupt in the wake of disasters. California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/29/689591066/california-power-provider-pg-e-files-for-bankruptcy-in-wake-of-fire-lawsuits) bankruptcy in January 2019, following the Camp Fire of November 2018. The Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, which is the largest power cooperative in Texas, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/01/972408584/texas-energy-co-op-files-for-bankruptcy-after-storm-high-bill) for bankruptcy in March 2021, following the February 2021 Texas icestorm.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if there is an 8-K filing stating that the entity filing with the SEC under the Central Index Key (CIK) number 46207 [(here)](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=46207&owner=exclude) has filed or intends to file a petition in bankruptcy court under Chapter 11 reorganization or Chapter 7 liquidation before January 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "This question concerns Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., not its parent company Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. Therefore, if Hawaiian Electric Company files for bankruptcy but not its parent, this would resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 18437, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654928.108411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654928.108411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.994, 0.006 ], "means": [ 0.062317818742600624 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.263266290016947, 0.7545130486974232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.7251690897372494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47781473788172524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19227918282205353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 21.754541356520583, "peer_score": 22.80289770109754, "coverage": 0.999025953458011, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999025953458011, "spot_peer_score": 18.57877647704412, "spot_baseline_score": -23.4465253637023, "baseline_archived_score": 21.754541356520583, "peer_archived_score": 22.80289770109754, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.57877647704412, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -23.4465253637023 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289039.480484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289039.480484, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9794449331635522, 0.020555066836447783 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., is owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries, a holding company which also owns American Savings Bank. (See 2022 annual report pdf [here](https://s2.q4cdn.com/268623243/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/Hawaiian-Electric-2022-Annual-Report.pdf)).\n\nThe August 2023 wildfires in Lahaina, Hawaii killed at least 106 people, according to the latest [update](https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12710) from the County of Maui. A class-action lawsuit alleges that the electric company “chose not to deenergize their power lines during the High Wind Watch and Red Flag Warning conditions for Maui before the Lahaina Fire started.\" The stock price plunged 47% in the week following the fires, to a 13-year low. [(CNN story)](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/investing/hawaiian-electric-maui-fires-lawsuit/index.html)\n\nIn an 8-K filed August 18, 2023, the company [stated](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/46207/000035470723000071/exhibit991.htm) that although it is seeking advice from \"various experts\" including restructuring advisors, its \"goal is not to restructure the company but to endure as a financially strong utility that Maui and this state need.\"\n\nIn recent years, other electric utility companies have gone bankrupt in the wake of disasters. California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/29/689591066/california-power-provider-pg-e-files-for-bankruptcy-in-wake-of-fire-lawsuits) bankruptcy in January 2019, following the Camp Fire of November 2018. The Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, which is the largest power cooperative in Texas, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/01/972408584/texas-energy-co-op-files-for-bankruptcy-after-storm-high-bill) for bankruptcy in March 2021, following the February 2021 Texas icestorm." }, { "id": 18402, "title": "Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?", "short_title": "2024 NAEP Scores Decline?", "url_title": "2024 NAEP Scores Decline?", "slug": "2024-naep-scores-decline", "author_id": 152398, "author_username": "skg329", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-16T09:06:59.373352Z", "published_at": "2023-08-25T01:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.588921Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-25T01:32:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-03T00:53:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-25T01:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18402, "title": "Will average NAEP reading and math scores across 4th and 8th grades decline in 2024 compared to 2022?", "created_at": "2023-08-16T09:06:59.373352Z", "open_time": "2023-08-25T01:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-27T01:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-27T01:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-03T00:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-03T01:00:20.492166Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/) has been collecting data on what American students know and can do since 1969. Known as \"The Nation's Report Card,\" the NAEP administers a series of assessments, including data on [reading](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading/?grade=4) and [math](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/mathematics/?grade=4) performance for 4th, 8th, and 12th grades.\n\n2022 NAEP results for 4th and 8th graders showed drops compared to 2019, more than experts expected. The declines were widespread across almost all states and districts, and all performance bands.\n\nBefore COVID, gaps between top and bottom students were growing. The 2022 results suggest this continued, with lower-performing students losing more ground.\n\nThe 2024 NAEP tests will happen Winter 2024. Results come out about a year later. This prediction will resolve in late 2025 when all of the 2024 results are published.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, for all of the following subjects and grade levels, the average [NAEP](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/) score for 2024 is lower than the comparable score in 2022.\n\nIf the 2024 NAEP shows a higher score for any subject/grade level pairing, the question resolves **No**.\n\nHere are the relevant subjects, grade levels, and most recent scores:\n\n| Subject | Grade | Score | Score Year |\n|-------------|-------|-------|------------|\n| Mathematics | 4 | 236 | 2022 |\n| Mathematics | 8 | 274 | 2022 |\n| Reading | 4 | 217 | 2022 |\n| Reading | 8 | 260 | 2022 |", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18402, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423971.690338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423971.690338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.25207847231858344 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.09452424244796935, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.3369871084062156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4733770564116979, 0.0, 1.198634344500686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.045032921014155, "peer_score": 17.56190944615627, "coverage": 0.9997783025052613, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997783025052613, "spot_peer_score": 26.347750284793705, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 51.045032921014155, "peer_archived_score": 17.56190944615627, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.347750284793705, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725177694.703745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725177694.703745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8822560208711264, 0.11774397912887358 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP)](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/) has been collecting data on what American students know and can do since 1969. Known as \"The Nation's Report Card,\" the NAEP administers a series of assessments, including data on [reading](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reading/?grade=4) and [math](https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/mathematics/?grade=4) performance for 4th, 8th, and 12th grades.\n\n2022 NAEP results for 4th and 8th graders showed drops compared to 2019, more than experts expected. The declines were widespread across almost all states and districts, and all performance bands.\n\nBefore COVID, gaps between top and bottom students were growing. The 2022 results suggest this continued, with lower-performing students losing more ground.\n\nThe 2024 NAEP tests will happen Winter 2024. Results come out about a year later. This prediction will resolve in late 2025 when all of the 2024 results are published." }, { "id": 18390, "title": "Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Trump Charged with Witness Tampering?", "url_title": "Trump Charged with Witness Tampering?", "slug": "trump-charged-with-witness-tampering", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-15T23:13:21.999852Z", "published_at": "2023-08-18T02:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.419983Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-18T02:04:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T15:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T15:47:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-18T02:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18390, "title": "Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-08-15T23:13:21.999852Z", "open_time": "2023-08-18T02:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-20T02:04:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-20T02:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T15:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T15:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T15:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 14, 2023, former President Donald Trump was [indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia#Indictment) by a grand jury in Georgia, alongside 18 other individuals. The state brought charges against Trump related to Trump's alleged participation in an attempt to overturn the state's 2020 presidential election results.\n\nTrump made statements on his social media platform, Truth Social, which [appeared to warn](https://www.axios.com/2023/08/14/trump-witness-tampering-georgia-indictment) potential witnesses not to testify against him.\n\n> Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, his social media platform, on Monday saying Georgia’s former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan “shouldn’t” testify in grand jury proceedings this week regarding allegations that Trump attempted to overturn the 2020 election results in the state—and some legal analysts are saying the post could be witness intimidation or tampering.\n\n> ...\n\n> Per Georgia law, anyone who attempts to [influence](https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2020/title-16/chapter-10/article-5/section-16-10-93/) a witness is subject to felony charges and, if convicted, can face one to five years in prison; anyone who [threatens](https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2022/title-16/chapter-10/article-2/section-16-10-32/#:~:text=Attempted%20Murder%20or%20Threatening%20of%20Witnesses%20in%20Official%20Proceedings,-Universal%20Citation%3A%20GA&text=shall%20be%20guilty%20of%20a,nor%20more%20than%2020%20years.) a witness is subject to felony charges and, if convicted, faces 10 to 20 years in prison. ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2023/08/14/trump-suggested-a-witness-shouldnt-testify-in-georgias-grand-jury-proceedings-critics-say-thats-witness-intimidation/?sh=7e14b52a57be))", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is charged or indicted for any statements related to potential witnesses in *[The State of Georgia v. Donald J. Trump, et al](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia)*. The indictments must occur before June 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18390, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717166916.423537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717166916.423537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.027519199514815393 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.300601458619721, 6.97347052710732, 0.9031626535651527, 0.0, 0.10066260077593363, 0.09190893594621116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07561306189923878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045113666448411936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0870983533711305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09190167535275771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018980425029571785, 0.014742156022549508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002608200027234153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012720747494406942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012678038170596699, 0.0065036323388337515, 0.01945816775464467, 0.03211265593215371, 0.01698211627615795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05068353181957037, 0.0, 0.007807124044234717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004317504220680495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016246023240768244 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 53.55247490176042, "coverage": 0.999032837196186, "baseline_score": -37.25184652373369, "spot_peer_score": -0.6600875765393382, "peer_archived_score": 53.55247490176042, "baseline_archived_score": -37.25184652373369, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.6600875765393382 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717166916.461583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717166916.461583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 167, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 14, 2023, former President Donald Trump was [indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_in_Georgia#Indictment) by a grand jury in Georgia, alongside 18 other individuals. The state brought charges against Trump related to Trump's alleged participation in an attempt to overturn the state's 2020 presidential election results.\n\nTrump made statements on his social media platform, Truth Social, which [appeared to warn](https://www.axios.com/2023/08/14/trump-witness-tampering-georgia-indictment) potential witnesses not to testify against him.\n\n> Former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, his social media platform, on Monday saying Georgia’s former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan “shouldn’t” testify in grand jury proceedings this week regarding allegations that Trump attempted to overturn the 2020 election results in the state—and some legal analysts are saying the post could be witness intimidation or tampering.\n\n> ...\n\n> Per Georgia law, anyone who attempts to [influence](https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2020/title-16/chapter-10/article-5/section-16-10-93/) a witness is subject to felony charges and, if convicted, can face one to five years in prison; anyone who [threatens](https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2022/title-16/chapter-10/article-2/section-16-10-32/#:~:text=Attempted%20Murder%20or%20Threatening%20of%20Witnesses%20in%20Official%20Proceedings,-Universal%20Citation%3A%20GA&text=shall%20be%20guilty%20of%20a,nor%20more%20than%2020%20years.) a witness is subject to felony charges and, if convicted, faces 10 to 20 years in prison. ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2023/08/14/trump-suggested-a-witness-shouldnt-testify-in-georgias-grand-jury-proceedings-critics-say-thats-witness-intimidation/?sh=7e14b52a57be))" }, { "id": 18387, "title": "Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?", "short_title": "Next President of Ecuador Completes Term?", "url_title": "Next President of Ecuador Completes Term?", "slug": "next-president-of-ecuador-completes-term", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-15T19:53:02.040967Z", "published_at": "2023-08-16T23:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.134751Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-16T23:02:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-24T15:45:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-16T23:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18387, "title": "Will the next president of Ecuador remain in office through the end of their term?", "created_at": "2023-08-15T19:53:02.040967Z", "open_time": "2023-08-16T23:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-18T23:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-18T23:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-25T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-24T15:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-24T15:51:01.818119Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-23T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as \"[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)\" to dissolve the assembly as he was [facing impeachment proceedings](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/americas/ecuador-president-lasso-impeachment-intl-latam/index.html), but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held [on August 20, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election). If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place [on October 15, 2023](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-who-running-ecuadors-snap-presidential-vote).\n\nEcuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of [two local politicians](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-crime-political-killing-election-villavicencio-14a5fd781e52d31855f3fc4e9711ff84) as well as [the murder of a presidential candidate](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-killed), Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso [declared a state of emergency for 60 days](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-killed-in-attack-news-reports).\n\n[InSight Crime estimates](https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crime-2022-homicide-round-up/#:~:text=Ecuador%3A%2025.9%20per%20100%2C000%20(Pop.%2017%2C797%2C737)) that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=VC.IHR.PSRC.P5&locations=EC\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>\n\n[Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election#Opinion_polls) shows [Luisa González](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luisa_Gonz%C3%A1lez), candidate from the [Citizen Revolution Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen_Revolution_Movement) party, in the lead, though as of August 15 Wikipedia currently does not report any polls following the death of Villavicencio.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the next President of Ecuador, elected in 2023, holds the office of the president continuously until the scheduled end of their term of [May 24, 2025](https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Six-Citizens-Are-Running-for-the-Ecuadorean-Presidency-So-Far-20230526-0008.html). Resolution will be determined according to reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* The president no longer holding the office or stepping down for any period of time for any reason will result in the question resolving as **No**.", "post_id": 18387, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747794896.900809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.992 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747794896.900809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.992 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9385748614420758 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22000827887205915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.11786432781798938, 0.4609695388197726, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 2.7526003448143554, 0.4504227484700748, 1.1661856684961571, 0.0, 3.3011432967295704 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.32523012911503, "peer_score": 14.257378919053433, "coverage": 0.9991180255222825, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9991180255222825, "spot_peer_score": 0.9044991954957288, "spot_baseline_score": 45.41758931858021, "baseline_archived_score": 82.32523012911503, "peer_archived_score": 14.257378919053433, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.9044991954957288, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 45.41758931858021 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288833.586778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288833.586778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10987133034980767, 0.8901286696501923 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 17, 2023, [Ecuador's National Assembly was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-president-lasso-national-assembly-impeachment-proceedings-de9e4a9c59dfcfb75e81df58adb9c4c3). Then President Guillermo Lasso used the mechanism known as \"[muerte cruzada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada)\" to dissolve the assembly as he was [facing impeachment proceedings](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/16/americas/ecuador-president-lasso-impeachment-intl-latam/index.html), but the move also requires that snap elections be convened for both the president and the National Assembly. The snap election is scheduled to be held [on August 20, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election). If no candidate secures a majority or attains 40% of the vote combined with a lead of more than 10% over the second ranked candidate, a runoff will take place [on October 15, 2023](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/explainer-who-running-ecuadors-snap-presidential-vote).\n\nEcuador has been plagued by a rise in violence in recent years, and recent weeks saw the murder of [two local politicians](https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-crime-political-killing-election-villavicencio-14a5fd781e52d31855f3fc4e9711ff84) as well as [the murder of a presidential candidate](https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/08/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-killed), Fernando Villavicencio, on August 9, 2023. Following the murder of Villavicencio, President Lasso [declared a state of emergency for 60 days](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/10/ecuador-presidential-candidate-villavicencio-killed-in-attack-news-reports).\n\n[InSight Crime estimates](https://insightcrime.org/news/insight-crime-2022-homicide-round-up/#:~:text=Ecuador%3A%2025.9%20per%20100%2C000%20(Pop.%2017%2C797%2C737)) that Ecuador's homicide rate rose from approximately 14 per 100 thousand in 2021 to approximately 26 per 100 thousand in 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=VC.IHR.PSRC.P5&locations=EC\" width='100%' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>\n\n[Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ecuadorian_general_election#Opinion_polls) shows [Luisa González](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luisa_Gonz%C3%A1lez), candidate from the [Citizen Revolution Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizen_Revolution_Movement) party, in the lead, though as of August 15 Wikipedia currently does not report any polls following the death of Villavicencio." } ] }
