Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3520
{ "count": 6372, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3540", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3500", "results": [ { "id": 18221, "title": "Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Russia Bans Apple Before 2025?", "url_title": "Russia Bans Apple Before 2025?", "slug": "russia-bans-apple-before-2025", "author_id": 116620, "author_username": "メオマリ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-03T22:14:41.405627Z", "published_at": "2023-08-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.256086Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18221, "title": "Will Russia impose a total ban on Apple products before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-08-03T22:14:41.405627Z", "open_time": "2023-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-13T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-13T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T12:33:46.524569Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June the [Russian Federal Security Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service) (FSB) [issued a public statement](http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/press/message/single.htm%21id%3D10439739%40fsbMessage.html) claiming that Apple collaborates heavily with American Intelligence Agencies, particularly the [US National Security Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Agency) (NSA), and sends them Russian data. That did not prevent numerous Russian officials from taking photos with their iPhones [during the economic forum in Saint-Petersburg though](https://t.me/faridaily24/933).\n\nHowever, at the end of June there [were reports](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/22/russian-govt-officials-banned-from-bringing-iphones-into-cabinet-meetings-report-a81590) that Russian government officials were barred from using their iPhones during cabinet meetings. On July 16, 2023, there [were reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-moves-to-ban-iphones-for-government-officials-2023-7) that some Russian government ministries were barring employees from using iPhones on the job.\n\nOn August 2, 2023, [Russia's Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roskomnadzor) (Roskomnadzor), [was reported](https://tass.ru/obschestvo/18433053) (according to machine translation) to have denied claims that they were preparing to ban the sale of Apple equipment.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that any of these three things has happened before January 1, 2025:\n\n1. A Presidential decree is issued banning Apple products in Russia\n2. Roskomnadzor issues a public ban on Apple products in Russia\nor\n3. a federal law is passed by the legislature and signed by Putin, banning Apple products in Russia\n\nFor the purposes of this question a \"ban\" will be considered to be a prohibition on the sale of Apple products in Russia. The ban need not take effect before January 1, 2025, only the issuance or enactment of a law that will ban the sale of Apple products is required.", "fine_print": "A ban with some exceptions will still be considered to be a ban so long as information from credible sources indicates that Apple products cannot be sold to most of the public in Russia.", "post_id": 18221, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735657185.923208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735657185.923208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.014549350822611593 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.704411243697392, 5.568317125327126, 0.33687037128987607, 0.4284663202436456, 0.00497455622240795, 0.059498252885295255, 0.2611024408512512, 0.006095433581409484, 0.007317111975919482, 0.0, 0.3623899213276461, 0.032718567573612516, 0.01591623825581385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1351453996240435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013816868512948603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004046517214306785, 0.010217135346786867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037861112940804624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008686660616741733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.1524128936151, "peer_score": 8.8231275879744, "coverage": 0.9999514005216499, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999514005216499, "spot_peer_score": 6.962262256123085, "spot_baseline_score": 83.18772411916731, "baseline_archived_score": 91.1524128936151, "peer_archived_score": 8.8231275879744, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.962262256123085, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 83.18772411916731 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286986.4821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286986.4821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 127, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June the [Russian Federal Security Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Security_Service) (FSB) [issued a public statement](http://www.fsb.ru/fsb/press/message/single.htm%21id%3D10439739%40fsbMessage.html) claiming that Apple collaborates heavily with American Intelligence Agencies, particularly the [US National Security Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Agency) (NSA), and sends them Russian data. That did not prevent numerous Russian officials from taking photos with their iPhones [during the economic forum in Saint-Petersburg though](https://t.me/faridaily24/933).\n\nHowever, at the end of June there [were reports](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/22/russian-govt-officials-banned-from-bringing-iphones-into-cabinet-meetings-report-a81590) that Russian government officials were barred from using their iPhones during cabinet meetings. On July 16, 2023, there [were reports](https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-moves-to-ban-iphones-for-government-officials-2023-7) that some Russian government ministries were barring employees from using iPhones on the job.\n\nOn August 2, 2023, [Russia's Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roskomnadzor) (Roskomnadzor), [was reported](https://tass.ru/obschestvo/18433053) (according to machine translation) to have denied claims that they were preparing to ban the sale of Apple equipment." }, { "id": 18194, "title": "Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?", "short_title": "Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2030?", "url_title": "Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2030?", "slug": "commercial-room-temp-superconductor-by-2030", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-02T21:45:47.343581Z", "published_at": "2023-08-02T21:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T05:27:00.724119Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-02T21:50:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-02T21:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T05:27:01.280081Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T05:27:01.280081Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18194, "title": "Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-08-02T21:45:47.343581Z", "open_time": "2023-08-02T21:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-03T11:44:26.908450Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-03T11:44:26.908450Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/), but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it [could revolutionize the electronics industry](https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849).\n\nPrevious efforts in [high-temperature superconductivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity#History) have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 [gigapascals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)) (GPa) and [below 138 Kelvin](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417328/) (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0) has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim [has been called into question](https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/).\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\" alt=\"Timeline of Superconductivity\" />\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\">PJRay</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0\">CC BY-SA 4.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a superconductor has been used in a commercial application at room temperature and ambient pressure. For the purposes of this question a commercial application will be considered to be one which is used as an intermediate product in the production of another product or service, or in other words not a novelty item or toy.\n\nTo qualify, all of the following must be confirmed by publicly available information about the superconductor itself or must have been demonstrated through credible published research for the material of which the superconductor is made:\n\n* The superconductor has been used in a fully-functional commercial product (testing, development, or research and design do not qualify)\n* The superconductor operates at a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius or higher\n* The superconductor operates at a pressure of 2 atmospheres or less\n* The superconductor satisfies standard criteria typically used to define a superconductor, such as exhibiting the Meissner effect and having zero or negligible resistance below the critical temperature.", "fine_print": "Metaculus will make a determination as to whether these criteria are satisfied and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear.", "post_id": 18194, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763184410.473896, "end_time": 1763732135.30779, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763184410.473896, "end_time": 1763732135.30779, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.011923310728058053 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.502471723154562, 3.9210910172735547, 0.11778011761700219, 0.27155671612900434, 0.0, 0.07964779781950536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02802391257647418, 0.0, 0.01223904243451124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006813082111662306, 0.0, 0.3613315105385659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009362214450677682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004502492091281563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288011.970012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288011.970012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9977481958853269, 0.0022518041146730736 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 216, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/), but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it [could revolutionize the electronics industry](https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849).\n\nPrevious efforts in [high-temperature superconductivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity#History) have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 [gigapascals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)) (GPa) and [below 138 Kelvin](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417328/) (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0) has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim [has been called into question](https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/).\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\" alt=\"Timeline of Superconductivity\" />\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\">PJRay</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0\">CC BY-SA 4.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*" }, { "id": 18192, "title": "Will the Israeli High Court uphold the \"reasonableness\" law?", "short_title": "Israel \"Reasonableness\" Law Upheld?", "url_title": "Israel \"Reasonableness\" Law Upheld?", "slug": "israel-reasonableness-law-upheld", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-02T18:53:06.035161Z", "published_at": "2023-08-11T14:13:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.407848Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-11T14:13:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-01T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-01T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-11T14:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18192, "title": "Will the Israeli High Court uphold the \"reasonableness\" law?", "created_at": "2023-08-02T18:53:06.035161Z", "open_time": "2023-08-11T14:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-13T14:13:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-13T14:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-02T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-02T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-01T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the \"reasonableness\" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was \"unreasonable\".\n\nThe new law amends Israel's [Basic Law regarding the judiciary](https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf). Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the [Knesset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset) has passed a series of [Basic Laws](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Laws_of_Israel) that \"[established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/constitution-of-israel).\" The translated full text of the new law [reads](https://www.timesofisrael.com/committee-hardens-reasonableness-bill-strengthening-protection-for-government/):\n\n>Notwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.\n\nThe Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be [heard on September 12, 2023](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unprecedented-15-judge-panel-to-hear-petitions-against-coalitions-reasonableness-law/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the High Court of Israel upholds the \"reasonableness\" law. To be considered upheld the court must reject the petitions against the law or otherwise issue a final ruling that allows the law to remain in effect. An interim ruling not directly on the merits, such as freezing or delaying implementation, does not qualify.", "fine_print": "If no such ruling is issued before October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 18192, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701410426.290747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701410426.290747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.22483992871070177 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6216146519279362, 0.0, 0.02904148917975771, 0.0, 0.07331325067154816, 0.0575181573859948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044423031630246905, 2.034471040617473, 0.1902336590916781, 0.19512076372490594, 0.20926539955466936, 0.9292991145104746, 1.0, 0.0, 0.42500489163223787, 0.0, 0.800591043524475, 1.2961869334148997, 0.0, 0.9177209978712977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7221823805811646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08235174299721564, 0.6360167605213906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4119537064659858, 0.868859531492223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05352099478599455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6156767318358678 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.05953370452715, "coverage": 0.9999672260442933, "baseline_score": 50.73906468482865, "spot_peer_score": -11.107152549031282, "peer_archived_score": 16.05953370452715, "baseline_archived_score": 50.73906468482865, "spot_peer_archived_score": -11.107152549031282 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701416583.644342, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701416583.644342, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9368594350869848, 0.06314056491301519 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the \"reasonableness\" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was \"unreasonable\".\n\nThe new law amends Israel's [Basic Law regarding the judiciary](https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf). Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the [Knesset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset) has passed a series of [Basic Laws](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Laws_of_Israel) that \"[established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/constitution-of-israel).\" The translated full text of the new law [reads](https://www.timesofisrael.com/committee-hardens-reasonableness-bill-strengthening-protection-for-government/):\n\n>Notwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.\n\nThe Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be [heard on September 12, 2023](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unprecedented-15-judge-panel-to-hear-petitions-against-coalitions-reasonableness-law/)." }, { "id": 18191, "title": "Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the \"reasonableness\" law before October 1, 2023?", "short_title": "Israel Court Ruling on Reform by October 1?", "url_title": "Israel Court Ruling on Reform by October 1?", "slug": "israel-court-ruling-on-reform-by-october-1", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-02T18:34:17.250388Z", "published_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.978153Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18191, "title": "Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the \"reasonableness\" law before October 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-02T18:34:17.250388Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-08T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-08T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the \"reasonableness\" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was \"unreasonable\".\n\nThe new law amends Israel's [Basic Law regarding the judiciary](https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf). Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the [Knesset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset) has passed a series of [Basic Laws](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Laws_of_Israel) that \"[established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/constitution-of-israel).\" The translated full text of the new law [reads](https://www.timesofisrael.com/committee-hardens-reasonableness-bill-strengthening-protection-for-government/):\n\n>Notwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.\n\nThe Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be [heard on September 12, 2023](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unprecedented-15-judge-panel-to-hear-petitions-against-coalitions-reasonableness-law/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Israeli High Court has issued a ruling on the \"reasonableness\" law. The ruling must either uphold or strike down the law in whole or in part; a ruling not on the merits, such as freezing or delaying implementation, does not qualify.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18191, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696105578.730379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696105578.730379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025561966834930762 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.724027221629465, 6.843254461345685, 0.46688709172617116, 0.46074880903322646, 0.11646479492898522, 0.28711283214365957, 0.09656516271681595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11052357267986135, 0.5867938441500535, 0.1468257776419513, 0.0, 0.001183031738426886, 0.11707007356349668, 0.006526864650835598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0059866825919037, 0.9730540714317588, 0.0034595108646869087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022556935951370632, 0.008700874110765798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008395848169131099, 0.0, 0.005161562278526571, 0.0, 0.21617707533377314, 0.0050165334663289625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005663221576601098, 0.0, 0.0040677391584953825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003848024427075739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014156090758466822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019453053750058099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012453674481811782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.2077347573969934e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007050588977482321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020862966315705173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005281365444147849, 0.00010828654134764054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.87480340290081, "coverage": 0.9999756927492125, "baseline_score": 53.956276171878756, "spot_peer_score": 3.5438140264607068, "peer_archived_score": 12.87480340290081, "baseline_archived_score": 53.956276171878756, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.5438140264607068 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696105578.864826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696105578.864826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 663, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 24, 2023, Israel [passed a new law](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/netanyahu-leaves-hospital-israel-faces-key-vote-legal-changes-rcna95881) that [weakens the power of the courts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israeli_judicial_reform). Known as the \"reasonableness\" law, the new law limits the ability of Israeli courts to hear cases brought on the grounds that an administrative decision was \"unreasonable\".\n\nThe new law amends Israel's [Basic Law regarding the judiciary](https://m.knesset.gov.il/EN/activity/documents/BasicLawsPDF/BasicLawTheJudiciary.pdf). Israel does not have a formal written constitution, instead the [Knesset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knesset) has passed a series of [Basic Laws](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_Laws_of_Israel) that \"[established the foundations of the system of government and the rights of the individual](https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/constitution-of-israel).\" The translated full text of the new law [reads](https://www.timesofisrael.com/committee-hardens-reasonableness-bill-strengthening-protection-for-government/):\n\n>Notwithstanding what is stated in this Basic Law, whoever has judicial authority according to law, including the Supreme Court in its seating as the High Court of Justice, will not discuss the reasonableness of a decision of the government, of the prime minister or of another minister, and will not issue an order on the aforementioned matter.\n\nThe Israeli High Court has agreed to consider a number of petitions against the law. The petitions will be [heard on September 12, 2023](https://www.timesofisrael.com/unprecedented-15-judge-panel-to-hear-petitions-against-coalitions-reasonableness-law/)." }, { "id": 18190, "title": "Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?", "short_title": "Indictments for \"Co-Conspirators\" By Aug. 11?", "url_title": "Indictments for \"Co-Conspirators\" By Aug. 11?", "slug": "indictments-for-co-conspirators-by-aug-11", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-02T17:27:47.624268Z", "published_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.539036Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18190, "title": "Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-02T17:27:47.624268Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-03T15:05:39.406357Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-03T15:05:39.406357Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-11T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-10T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Former President Donald Trump was [indicted for the third time](https://apnews.com/article/trump-indicted-jan-6-investigation-special-counsel-debb59bb7a4d9f93f7e2dace01feccdc) on August 1, 2023, on felony charges related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Six anonymous co-conspirators are listed in [the indictment](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23893878/trump-dc-indictment.pdf). While the co-conspirators are anonymous, the details in the indictment are sufficient to allege their identities. [CNN alleges](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/01/politics/co-conspirators-trump-indictment/index.html) that the known co-conspirators are as follows:\n\n* Co-conspirator 1: [Rudy Giuliani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Giuliani)\n* Co-conspirator 2: [John Eastman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Eastman)\n* Co-conspirator 3: [Sidney Powell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidney_Powell)\n* Co-conspirator 4: [Jeffrey Clark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Clark)\n* Co-conspirator 5: [Kenneth Chesebro](https://www.cambridgeday.com/2022/11/16/cambridge-lawyer-chesebro-gets-some-spotlight-for-work-helping-trump-overturn-2020-election/)\n* Co-conspirator 6: identity unknown", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after August 2, 2023 and before August 11, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that any of the following people have been indicted for a federal felony:\n\n* Rudy Giuliani\n* John Eastman\n* Sidney Powell\n* Jeffrey Clark\n* Kenneth Chesebro\n\nAny federal felony indictment qualifies, and need not be directly related to Donald Trump's election interference indictment.", "fine_print": "Whether the indictment is sealed or not is immaterial, only whether credible sources report that one of the listed persons has been indicted.", "post_id": 18190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691701585.068965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691701585.068965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.029632089018248754 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.295042501108913, 8.065600545335048, 2.313345536789314, 0.21136145876144188, 0.4090944607204709, 0.9082065109839379, 0.012514947868269602, 0.059404042739326854, 0.23608164356974304, 0.03128077033446885, 0.22860889533146314, 0.06907049790903583, 0.0, 0.015051164342284526, 0.0, 0.006249799226141158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01522709157824471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009766894894432364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023167965795815007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004766249178816012, 0.001135834834678922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022921926586655966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3849346318661529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.675833055884095, "coverage": 0.999851548904647, "baseline_score": 80.44409664045747, "spot_peer_score": 15.490649427474915, "peer_archived_score": 10.675833055884095, "baseline_archived_score": 80.44409664045747, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.490649427474915 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691701585.09034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691701585.09034, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9992276339283509, 0.0007723660716490815 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 299, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Former President Donald Trump was [indicted for the third time](https://apnews.com/article/trump-indicted-jan-6-investigation-special-counsel-debb59bb7a4d9f93f7e2dace01feccdc) on August 1, 2023, on felony charges related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Six anonymous co-conspirators are listed in [the indictment](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/23893878/trump-dc-indictment.pdf). While the co-conspirators are anonymous, the details in the indictment are sufficient to allege their identities. [CNN alleges](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/01/politics/co-conspirators-trump-indictment/index.html) that the known co-conspirators are as follows:\n\n* Co-conspirator 1: [Rudy Giuliani](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rudy_Giuliani)\n* Co-conspirator 2: [John Eastman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_C._Eastman)\n* Co-conspirator 3: [Sidney Powell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sidney_Powell)\n* Co-conspirator 4: [Jeffrey Clark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Clark)\n* Co-conspirator 5: [Kenneth Chesebro](https://www.cambridgeday.com/2022/11/16/cambridge-lawyer-chesebro-gets-some-spotlight-for-work-helping-trump-overturn-2020-election/)\n* Co-conspirator 6: identity unknown" }, { "id": 18186, "title": "Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?", "short_title": "ECOWAS Intervention in Niger By Oct. 1, 2023?", "url_title": "ECOWAS Intervention in Niger By Oct. 1, 2023?", "slug": "ecowas-intervention-in-niger-by-oct-1-2023", "author_id": 127640, "author_username": "Pelagia425", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-01T20:31:36.855355Z", "published_at": "2023-08-10T16:43:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.705773Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-10T16:43:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T14:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T14:59:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-10T16:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 141, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18186, "title": "Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-08-01T20:31:36.855355Z", "open_time": "2023-08-10T16:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-11T00:08:39.548619Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-11T00:08:39.548619Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T14:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-10-03T14:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-10-03T14:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-10-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*The resolution criteria and some of the background have been copied and edited from [this shorter term question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18181/ecowas-intervention-2023/).*\n\n---\n\nOn 26 July 2023, a [coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an [ECOWAS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States) (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS [issued an ultimatum](https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-us-join-ecowas-in-call-for-niger-military-junta-to-halt-coup/7204716.html) on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week.\n\nECOWAS has a [history of military intervention](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/1/timeline-a-history-of-ecowas-military-interventions-in-three-decades) in local conflicts with a potential for regional destabilization, including in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, and The Gambia.\n\nOn August 6th the [deadline had passed](https://www.voanews.com/a/west-african-leaders-to-meet-on-niger-after-junta-defies-deadline/7215069.html), and as of August 9, 2023, ECOWAS has not launched a military intervention, [saying it will hold a second emergency summit](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/ecowas-calls-for-second-emergency-summit-to-discuss-niger-coup) on Thursday August 10th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2023, ECOWAS has announced a military intervention in Niger to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and civilian rule, and there are credible media reports of troops acting as part of an ECOWAS mission entering or attempting to enter the territory of Niger.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18186, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696105763.798161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696105763.798161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015649219660892336 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.546494791867145, 6.587900942381943, 1.6411227899920253, 0.5291938649376844, 0.3828613122649639, 1.6314829975771017, 0.06465611328528331, 0.3095688125708174, 0.13094268798498077, 0.028164722972541443, 0.15833527421267077, 0.004194556879642525, 0.0357809968153877, 0.0, 0.0249227195165835, 0.11707482888794132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003118300165855562, 0.0, 0.0009535653705399581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016109028389612038, 0.0, 0.0038399313174647507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001645881233618983, 0.0002937784340971446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007110811854803821, 0.0, 0.0005203127944114797, 0.0006099057432257295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000544608623388499, 0.0002563951339187345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001268480624659815, 0.00024353592081288728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004302102731740687, 0.0, 6.518546068432183e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.93784722937276e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 8.069351508216675e-05, 0.0, 0.024997253624574355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.23461679211141, "coverage": 0.999873227768652, "baseline_score": 63.35610314719559, "spot_peer_score": -44.83505200251129, "peer_archived_score": 20.23461679211141, "baseline_archived_score": 63.35610314719559, "spot_peer_archived_score": -44.83505200251129 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1696105763.845478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1696105763.845478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 141, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 621, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*The resolution criteria and some of the background have been copied and edited from [this shorter term question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18181/ecowas-intervention-2023/).*\n\n---\n\nOn 26 July 2023, a [coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an [ECOWAS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States) (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS [issued an ultimatum](https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-us-join-ecowas-in-call-for-niger-military-junta-to-halt-coup/7204716.html) on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week.\n\nECOWAS has a [history of military intervention](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/1/timeline-a-history-of-ecowas-military-interventions-in-three-decades) in local conflicts with a potential for regional destabilization, including in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, and The Gambia.\n\nOn August 6th the [deadline had passed](https://www.voanews.com/a/west-african-leaders-to-meet-on-niger-after-junta-defies-deadline/7215069.html), and as of August 9, 2023, ECOWAS has not launched a military intervention, [saying it will hold a second emergency summit](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/7/ecowas-calls-for-second-emergency-summit-to-discuss-niger-coup) on Thursday August 10th." }, { "id": 18181, "title": "Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?", "short_title": "ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023?", "url_title": "ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023?", "slug": "ecowas-intervention-before-august-12-2023", "author_id": 121058, "author_username": "Sourian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-08-01T03:57:23.619741Z", "published_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.467294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-12T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-12T11:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", 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The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an [ECOWAS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States) (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS [issued an ultimatum](https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-us-join-ecowas-in-call-for-niger-military-junta-to-halt-coup/7204716.html) on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before August 12, 2023, ECOWAS has announced a military intervention in Niger to restore the government of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and civilian rule, and there are credible media reports of troops acting as part of an ECOWAS mission entering or attempting to enter the territory of Niger.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 18181, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691790879.081745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691790879.081745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.017736255863713694 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.8713303081321, 9.224885925094895, 1.0370473681255001, 0.5326715336904315, 0.28849149814371033, 0.3470828259613902, 0.06157588046885444, 3.403212156462719e-05, 0.01040589918169206, 0.03522299278110513, 0.050052633436080886, 0.01105273841012126, 0.004320469972749898, 0.05863398005077013, 0.0, 0.14259647395007677, 7.792384123367405e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03572715704350148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006411763253375005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015374879400591828, 0.0, 0.00012696730607986522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047166895293806216, 0.0001695005388690276, 0.00036003590913050794, 0.0, 0.10663642727732853, 0.04906608421967747, 0.0, 0.00014714322698529736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03154169804357445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02469360944656078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06072664306793718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010047254887444886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004371928219451056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02657055344850956 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.75566346855663, "coverage": 0.999902172712485, "baseline_score": 73.21464507367408, "spot_peer_score": 12.969204723266138, "peer_archived_score": 8.75566346855663, "baseline_archived_score": 73.21464507367408, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.969204723266138 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691790879.13689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691790879.13689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 151, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9990303622850538, 0.000969637714946224 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 780, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 26 July 2023, a [coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) occured in Niger when the presidential guard detained president Mohamed Bazoum. The next day, the military recognised the junta, and on 28 July, ringleader of the coup General Abdourahmane Tchiani officially proclaimed himself as the President of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland. This is the 4th coup in an [ECOWAS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_Community_of_West_African_States) (Economic Community of West African States) country since 2021. Alongside international condemnation of the coup, ECOWAS [issued an ultimatum](https://www.voanews.com/a/eu-us-join-ecowas-in-call-for-niger-military-junta-to-halt-coup/7204716.html) on 30 July that all necessary measures, which may include the use of force, will be taken if Bazoum is not reinstated as president within one week." }, { "id": 18177, "title": "Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?", "short_title": "Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025", "url_title": "Room-temp Superconductor Replicated by 2025", "slug": "room-temp-superconductor-replicated-by-2025", "author_id": 109158, "author_username": "Gaia", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111848, "username": "juancambeiro" }, { "id": 112479, "username": "evanbd" } ], "created_at": "2023-08-01T02:37:44.358171Z", "published_at": "2023-08-01T07:05:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.609206Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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22, 2023 a pre-print called [\"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if a peer-reviewed replication of the superconductivity of LK-99 that confirms the main findings is published before January 1, 2025. The replication must be conducted by researchers at institution(s) independent from the authors of the original study.\n\nA confirmatory replication would have to include the following:\n\n* Reproduction of the synthesis of LK-99 \n\n* Confirmation that the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (126.85C) — the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting \n\n* Confirmation that the resistivity drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm — true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature\n\nTo be considered a confirmed replication the research must replicate all of the above.", "fine_print": "* Resolves ambiguous if there are no credible reports of a peer-reviewed replication attempt before January 1, 2025.\n* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether a replication satisfies these criteria and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear.", "post_id": 18177, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654932.625063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 489, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654932.625063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 489, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.023342648760844062 ], "histogram": [ [ 30.64614891707963, 7.709131160025006, 1.6940698354572188, 0.10248374704659721, 0.00855274840355627, 0.12127635172134776, 0.7890793112235284, 0.014329435162829933, 0.0002749899297662409, 0.0002022728640414647, 0.3347233957507475, 0.018298723569182565, 1.785897276732955e-05, 0.0, 5.758735710308358e-07, 0.056373416297792904, 0.004607159111084907, 8.884370135847698e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005132472922090908, 0.2585141376389758, 0.0, 4.114719092634712e-06, 1.7076357357163454e-05, 1.3223559012390423e-05, 1.6325081653205092e-05, 0.0028362640214510877, 8.404688190686943e-07, 0.0, 0.03897528919594561, 0.0, 0.02751331498970392, 4.688176887058241e-05, 0.0, 3.15149812235447e-05, 5.778340380514335e-06, 3.574849811563991e-05, 2.1330466473355526e-06, 2.0400109917650006e-07, 1.562916083535903e-05, 0.0, 6.0134761537989994e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.141051539184246e-07, 8.268287589099974e-05, 6.972718634090216e-07, 1.0226097213478414e-05, 2.6532483080341623e-06, 0.0, 3.427189863735763e-05, 3.285133203173795e-05, 8.484901172518032e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 4.035143435467508e-05, 1.8402868375615725e-09, 0.019304013276299183, 2.4319815325477213e-05, 2.884671971859199e-09, 7.3727908490040455e-06, 2.9302686347978548e-05, 1.424801103628073e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.694533096824427, 0.07664858749611442, 5.956969815132405e-08, 0.0014201465600501909, 0.0, 1.382111169619096e-05, 6.88637735418449e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1165673523002793e-05, 0.0, 2.3302823184405986e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 6.8657565687085724e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 7.95676941101522e-09, 0.0, 1.239171900457699e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9468940346964986e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10347146298674963 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.06894074044838, "peer_score": 34.66986337399039, "coverage": 0.9999975592255117, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999975592255117, "spot_peer_score": 21.51909138880531, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": 98.06894074044838, "peer_archived_score": 34.66986337399039, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.51909138880531, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287289.592606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287289.592606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 58, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1637, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called [\"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated." }, { "id": 18174, "title": "Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?", "short_title": "Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?", "url_title": "Solar Power Dominates Renewables by 2031?", "slug": "solar-power-dominates-renewables-by-2031", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-31T17:03:05.872018Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.301789Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-07-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18174, "title": "Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?", "created_at": "2023-07-31T17:03:05.872018Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-07-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/primary-sub-energy-source\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nSolar power has seen significant growth in recent years, alongside wind power. As of September 1, 2023, solar power is the third largest renewable, behind hydropower and wind power, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in any year from 2023 to 2030, inclusive, the total global consumption of primary energy from solar power on Earth exceeds the consumption of primary energy from all other individual renewable energy sources on Earth for the year (meaning solar must be the largest source of renewable energy, it need not exceed the sum of all other renewables). For the purposes of this question, renewables include, but are not limited to, solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and bioenergy. Resolution will be determined according to data published in the [Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.energyinst.org/statistical-review).", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve as **Yes** when the first qualifying report is made, even if the conditions are no longer met in later revisions from scheduled publications.\n* If the Statistical Review no longer reports data for a relevant year, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion, or annul the question.\n* If no other sources are readily available which provide consumption data alternate measures, such as generation, may be used at Metaculus' discretion.", "post_id": 18174, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763349601.88377, "end_time": 1764349121.974389, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763349601.88377, "end_time": 1764349121.974389, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7576870408380534 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006942996711877092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020262681176405166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005705735607831822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2370361010707283, 0.0, 0.009894530929378758, 0.27493576634473277, 0.0, 0.032410515091210096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08895535332445731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07311124410978406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09785480469046857, 0.26025527845219726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9538700622296022, 0.013580120065969772, 0.0, 0.05960942483775391, 0.0, 0.04312565778056248, 0.07505752351706142, 0.015738088418585917, 0.0, 0.2856529211702425, 1.2747798378349198, 0.76544043598373, 0.0, 0.08072123588639313, 0.0, 1.3836485820812687, 0.19873696631965945, 1.592025448978026, 0.05364551847354191, 0.0, 0.3267007404613831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.133539415145959, 0.21588475063544757, 0.5402230841898076, 0.6222927254089794, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.667196579275483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34703328495953834 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290180.885886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290180.885886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2796606250863133, 0.7203393749136867 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/primary-sub-energy-source\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nSolar power has seen significant growth in recent years, alongside wind power. As of September 1, 2023, solar power is the third largest renewable, behind hydropower and wind power, respectively." }, { "id": 18172, "title": "Will there be a year before 2074 when the percentage of renewable energy supported by space-based power systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems?", "short_title": "Space-Based Power Exceeds Renewables by 2074?", "url_title": "Space-Based Power Exceeds Renewables by 2074?", "slug": "space-based-power-exceeds-renewables-by-2074", "author_id": 136675, "author_username": "exoplanet_emma", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-31T16:56:54.245604Z", "published_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.528042Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2074-01-02T05:00:00Z", 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2333, "type": "question_series", "name": "Space Technology & Climate", "slug": "space-tech-climate", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/solar_power_system_floating_above_the_earth_in_spa_7655d149-fe8b-4d03-9975-6eab5c07e9e9.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-01T17:30:29Z", "close_date": "2035-02-01T18:30:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T03:20:12.709496Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18172, "title": "Will there be a year before 2074 when the percentage of renewable energy supported by space-based power systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems?", "created_at": "2023-07-31T16:56:54.245604Z", "open_time": "2023-10-10T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-10-13T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2074-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-30T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The quest for sustainable and renewable energy has recently been a cornerstone of human progress. Traditional, earth-based renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, have expanded their global market share. Simultaneously, advances in space technology have given rise to the concept of space-based power generation, which proposes capturing solar energy in space where the sun always shines and transmitting it to Earth.\n\n[Space-based solar power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-based_solar_power) (SBSP) theoretically offers an unlimited, constant, and environmentally friendly power source, free from the intermittency problems of earth-based renewable energy. However, its practical implementation [faces significant challenges](https://www.wsj.com/articles/beaming-solar-energy-from-space-gets-a-step-closer-fc903658) today, including technical issues, high costs, and the absence of a regulatory framework.\n\nGiven these circumstances, it raises the intriguing question: Will there be a year in the next 50 years when the percentage of renewable energy capacity directly supported by space-based power generation systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems? The answer could greatly influence global energy policy, technological investment, and environmental sustainability.", "resolution_criteria": "1. This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in any year from 2023 to 2073, the total global capacity of renewable energy directly supported by space-based power generation systems exceeds the total global capacity of renewable energy supported by earth-based power generation systems.\n2. The renewable energy capacity directly supported by space-based systems includes any energy generated in space transmitted to and used on Earth.\n3. The capacity of renewable energy supported by earth-based systems includes any renewable energy generated on Earth (including but not limited to solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and bioenergy).\n4. Evidence of this occurrence must come from reputable sources, such as international bodies (like the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-clean-energy-progress-2023)) scientific journals, or credible media sources reporting on official data.\n5. If the total capacities are equal in a given year, this will not be sufficient for resolution; the space-based capacity must be greater.", "fine_print": "In the event there are conflicting reports from credible sources Metaculus may use their discretion to select the source they deem most methodologically sound or reliable or may resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 18172, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1745107940.781278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1745107940.781278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.0682383134398626 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8450767146000707, 3.9135343158681413, 1.0110688823644178, 0.3058323220141224, 0.8031650779384272, 0.2748312226056533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.377031538556385, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6593994371229919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288056.454178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288056.454178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9651802088558685, 0.034819791144131446 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The quest for sustainable and renewable energy has recently been a cornerstone of human progress. Traditional, earth-based renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, have expanded their global market share. Simultaneously, advances in space technology have given rise to the concept of space-based power generation, which proposes capturing solar energy in space where the sun always shines and transmitting it to Earth.\n\n[Space-based solar power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-based_solar_power) (SBSP) theoretically offers an unlimited, constant, and environmentally friendly power source, free from the intermittency problems of earth-based renewable energy. However, its practical implementation [faces significant challenges](https://www.wsj.com/articles/beaming-solar-energy-from-space-gets-a-step-closer-fc903658) today, including technical issues, high costs, and the absence of a regulatory framework.\n\nGiven these circumstances, it raises the intriguing question: Will there be a year in the next 50 years when the percentage of renewable energy capacity directly supported by space-based power generation systems is greater than that supported by earth-based power generation systems? The answer could greatly influence global energy policy, technological investment, and environmental sustainability." }, { "id": 18170, "title": "Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?", "short_title": "Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?", "url_title": "Commercial Room-Temp Superconductor by 2025?", "slug": "commercial-room-temp-superconductor-by-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-31T16:04:41.414310Z", "published_at": "2023-08-01T12:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.638501Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-01T12:40:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T21:41:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-01T12:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 161, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T05:27:01.280081Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2521, "type": "question_series", "name": "Superconductor Frontiers", "slug": "superconductors", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/metaculusjourney_close_up_shot_of_a_floating_piece_of_rock.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-01T15:05:12Z", "close_date": "2050-08-01T15:05:12Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T05:27:01.280081Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18170, "title": "Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-07-31T16:04:41.414310Z", "open_time": "2023-08-01T12:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-01T14:19:35.096081Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-01T14:19:35.096081Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T21:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T21:44:31.622147Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/), but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it [could revolutionize the electronics industry](https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849).\n\nPrevious efforts in [high-temperature superconductivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity#History) have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 [gigapascals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)) (GPa) and [below 138 Kelvin](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417328/) (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0) has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim [has been called into question](https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/).\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\" alt=\"Timeline of Superconductivity\" />\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\">PJRay</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0\">CC BY-SA 4.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a superconductor has been used in a commercial application at room temperature and ambient pressure. For the purposes of this question a commercial application will be considered to be one which is used as an intermediate product in the production of another product or service, or in other words not a novelty item or toy.\n\nTo qualify, all of the following must be confirmed by publicly available information about the superconductor itself or must have been demonstrated through credible published research for the material of which the superconductor is made:\n\n* The superconductor has been used in a fully-functional commercial product (testing, development, or research and design do not qualify)\n* The superconductor operates at a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius or higher\n* The superconductor operates at a pressure of 2 atmospheres or less\n* The superconductor satisfies standard criteria typically used to define a superconductor, such as exhibiting the Meissner effect and having zero or negligible resistance below the critical temperature.", "fine_print": "Metaculus will make a determination as to whether these criteria are satisfied and may resolve as ambiguous if the outcome is not clear.", "post_id": 18170, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654535.804478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654535.804478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005997793561710122 ], "histogram": [ [ 19.327478951149946, 3.567593133509041, 0.2898564861082087, 0.010196177922349812, 0.08481493420885902, 0.057410718011183165, 0.09887586822151155, 0.0008659711369530226, 5.650999187104954e-05, 3.125121709754941e-05, 0.0, 0.007722991264452858, 0.0, 0.05424955452663764, 0.0, 0.09274449061765155, 0.008235752535017807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0941779268580518, 0.0, 3.868608937826673e-05, 0.0, 0.02161093536451051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011379028476303113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3738524686593568e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.7074980302278084e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00518984740189505 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 99.19372608181563, "peer_score": 8.735166822731015, "coverage": 0.9999814255920422, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999814255920422, "spot_peer_score": -2.8674036379587236, "spot_baseline_score": 11.103131238874395, "baseline_archived_score": 99.19372608181563, "peer_archived_score": 8.735166822731015, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.8674036379587236, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 11.103131238874395 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287926.405631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287926.405631, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 158, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 354, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A paper submitted to arXiv on July 22, 2023, [describes a new material known as LK-99](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) which the authors claim exhibits [superconducting properties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconductivity) at room temperature and ambient pressure. The [veracity of the results are uncertain](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/), but if a room temperature and ambient pressure superconductor were to be developed it [could revolutionize the electronics industry](https://theconversation.com/room-temperature-superconductors-could-revolutionize-electronics-an-electrical-engineer-explains-the-materials-potential-201849).\n\nPrevious efforts in [high-temperature superconductivity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity#History) have demonstrated superconductivity below 250 Kelvin (-23.15 degrees C; -9.67 degrees F) at 170 [gigapascals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal_(unit)) (GPa) and [below 138 Kelvin](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417328/) (-135.15 degrees C; -211.27 degrees F) at atmospheric pressure. Recent [research](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0) has claimed to achieve superconductivity at 294 Kelvin (-20.85 degrees C; 69.53 degrees F) at 1 GPa, however the veracity of this claim [has been called into question](https://www.quantamagazine.org/room-temperature-superconductor-discovery-meets-with-resistance-20230308/).\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\" alt=\"Timeline of Superconductivity\" />\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg\">PJRay</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0\">CC BY-SA 4.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons (note that this figure may contain outdated information or research that has not been replicated, see the [file description](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Timeline_of_Superconductivity_from_1900_to_2015.svg) for key)*" }, { "id": 18168, "title": "Will at least two of the largest Abrahamic religions recognize the arrival of the Messiah in the next 200 years?", "short_title": "Arrival of the Messiah in the next 200 years?", "url_title": "Arrival of the Messiah in the next 200 years?", "slug": "arrival-of-the-messiah-in-the-next-200-years", "author_id": 106870, "author_username": "FNORD", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-31T10:40:54.393998Z", "published_at": "2023-08-12T15:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.677902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-12T15:32:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2224-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-12T15:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18168, "title": "Will at least two of the largest Abrahamic religions recognize the arrival of the Messiah in the next 200 years?", "created_at": "2023-07-31T10:40:54.393998Z", "open_time": "2023-08-12T15:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-14T10:25:46.898914Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-14T10:25:46.898914Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2224-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The concept of a [Messiah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messiah), a savior or liberator of a group of people, is a central component of [Abrahamic religions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abrahamic_religions). The individual claiming to be the Messiah may demonstrate knowledge, abilities, or characteristics that are widely believed to be consistent with descriptions of the Messiah in religious texts of Christianity, Judaism or Islam.\n\n*(This question was entirely drafted by GPT-4)*", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if two major Abrahamic religions (Christianity, Judaism, and Islam) each have one major branch acknowledge the arrival of the same Messiah after August 11, 2023 and before 2224. \n\nFor the purposes of this question, a major branch of a faith is a branch that counts at least 500,000 members. At the time of question writing, major branches include (but are not limited to):\n\n- Christianity: Catholicism; the major Protestant branches, such as Baptists, Methodists, Lutherans, Anglicans, Pentecostals, and Evangelicals; and Orthodox Christianity\n- Judaism: Orthodox, Conservative, and Reform\n- Islam: Sunni and Shia\n\nThe question requires at least two of the three major religions to acknowledge the same Messiah, with each acknowledgement coming from a major branch of the religion, and will resolve on the date of the second such acknowledgement.\n\nAcknowledgement requires statements by multiple recognized leaders of the faith tradition, including the highest leader of that tradition (e.g. the Pope for Catholicism) if such a figure exists. If such a figure does not exist, recognized leaders will be considered to be those at the upper echelons of authority within the faith or prominent leaders in the faith, as determined from characterizations made by credible sources.", "fine_print": "* This question will close to new predictions 2 years after its posting.\n* If at any point there is not a branch of Christianity, Islam, or Judaism that counts more than 500,000 members, the question is annulled.\n* Examples of recognized leaders of the faith might be members of the [Baptist World Alliance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baptist_World_Alliance) leadership for Baptists, the [Grand Imam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Imam_of_al-Azhar) in Sunni Islam, and other similar stations or leadership roles in other branches. This may include popular televangelists within the faith who have received a large following. Recognized leaders will generally not be considered to be those who are prominent for reasons outside of faith leadership, for example athletes or politicians. If a religion has no recognized highest leader then statements from multiple recognized leaders as defined in this question will qualify, even if other recognized leaders disagree.", "post_id": 18168, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760282086.187268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760282086.187268, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01416592069485829 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8567280439542271, 2.1136407010312315, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287170.787566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287170.787566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9970173444987455, 0.0029826555012545785 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The concept of a [Messiah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messiah), a savior or liberator of a group of people, is a central component of [Abrahamic religions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abrahamic_religions). The individual claiming to be the Messiah may demonstrate knowledge, abilities, or characteristics that are widely believed to be consistent with descriptions of the Messiah in religious texts of Christianity, Judaism or Islam.\n\n*(This question was entirely drafted by GPT-4)*" }, { "id": 18161, "title": "Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?", "short_title": "Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?", "url_title": "Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?", "slug": "mohamed-bazoum-in-power-by-august-31-2023", "author_id": 124007, "author_username": "borgia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-30T17:38:33.501117Z", "published_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.788997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-01T17:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-01T17:57:00Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 153, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18161, "title": "Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-30T17:38:33.501117Z", "open_time": "2023-08-03T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-03T14:42:15.949082Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-03T14:42:15.949082Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-01T17:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-01T17:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-01T17:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 26, 2023, Nigerien President [Mohamed Bazoum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bazoum) was [deposed in a military coup](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66320895). According to [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/30/west-african-govts-give-niger-coup-leaders-a-week-to-cede-power):\n\n>West African countries have imposed sanctions on Niger’s new military leaders, threatening to use force if they fail to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum within a week, after the latest coup in the Sahel region raised alarm on the continent.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>And the African Union has given the military in Niger two weeks to restore “constitutional authority”.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Mohamed Bazoum has been effectively re-instated as President of Niger before August 31, 2023, otherwise it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question \"effectively re-instated\" will be defined as credible sources reporting that Mohamed Bazoum holds the presidency **and** is capable of exerting presidential authority. Metaculus will make an assessment of whether Bazoum is capable of exerting presidential authority based on reports from credible sources. Characterizations from credible sources similar to those listed below may be considered as strong evidence. Note that this list is not exhaustive:\n * Bazoum has returned to power\n * The coup has failed\n * The constitution has been reinstated\n* In the event reports conflict or are unclear Metaculus may resolve the question as **ambiguous**.", "post_id": 18161, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693424143.357715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693424143.357715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.014700577980968627 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.991579608224205, 4.557085545157923, 0.2221542869083854, 0.1571156809922329, 0.7954330937119958, 0.07509287294604752, 0.0009017219824727531, 0.0, 5.985619839723628e-05, 0.0, 0.9315815922898651, 0.00013567947413321504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017133292407506171, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1544321616161003e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.530164004591139e-05, 0.0, 0.4929176846368868, 0.005561510951105748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.892582142158005e-05, 0.0, 1.7468639477822135e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010471822495116637 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.492721183604748, "coverage": 0.9999905493072055, "baseline_score": 93.64496177097713, "spot_peer_score": -5.542734810940507, "peer_archived_score": 7.492721183604748, "baseline_archived_score": 93.64496177097713, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.542734810940507 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1693424143.401864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1693424143.401864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 662, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 26, 2023, Nigerien President [Mohamed Bazoum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_Bazoum) was [deposed in a military coup](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66320895). According to [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/30/west-african-govts-give-niger-coup-leaders-a-week-to-cede-power):\n\n>West African countries have imposed sanctions on Niger’s new military leaders, threatening to use force if they fail to reinstate ousted President Mohamed Bazoum within a week, after the latest coup in the Sahel region raised alarm on the continent.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>And the African Union has given the military in Niger two weeks to restore “constitutional authority”." }, { "id": 18135, "title": "Will Palantir's Market Cap exceed $80 Billion by the end of 2026?", "short_title": "Palantir's Market Cap $80B by 2026?", "url_title": "Palantir's Market Cap $80B by 2026?", "slug": "palantirs-market-cap-80b-by-2026", "author_id": 151184, "author_username": "AW001", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-28T21:19:55.879704Z", "published_at": "2023-09-02T21:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.356923Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-02T21:24:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-13T13:30:00Z", "open_time": "2023-09-02T21:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18135, "title": "Will Palantir's Market Cap exceed $80 Billion by the end of 2026?", "created_at": "2023-07-28T21:19:55.879704Z", "open_time": "2023-09-02T21:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-04T21:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-04T21:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-13T13:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-08T19:46:34.280881Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T13:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR), a leading software company that aids organizations in analyzing vast data sets, has seen steady growth since its public listing. As of mid-2023, Palantir's market capitalization is around $38 billion. The company plays a crucial role in the national security framework of the United States and its allies and is poised to grow further amid the rapidly emerging geopolitical AI threats.\n\nThis question asks: Given its increasing importance in maintaining national security and its role in combating AI threats, will Palantir Technologies Inc.'s market capitalization exceed $80 billion on or before December 31, 2026?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the market capitalization of Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) surpasses $80 billion on any trading day on or before December 31, 2026, according to official data from NYSE. If this value has not been achieved by that date, the question will resolve negatively.\n\nPredictions on this question could consider numerous factors. These include Palantir's future business strategies and growth in the national security sector, the company's potential to help address geopolitical AI threats, the overall health of the tech industry, and the broader economic environment.", "fine_print": "Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share. The resolution will be based on the nominal market cap, unadjusted for inflation.", "post_id": 18135, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728283628.51918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728283628.51918, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7472473223279801 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9284232151922808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.22188647333713657, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.630383327902745 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.5626978438078805, "coverage": 0.30980056000235506, "baseline_score": 8.642544777760747, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999730556791098, "spot_peer_score": 4.976737230628853, "peer_archived_score": 3.5626978438078805, "baseline_archived_score": 8.642544777760747, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.976737230628853 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288670.870555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288670.870555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.42072202012064674, 0.5792779798793533 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE: PLTR), a leading software company that aids organizations in analyzing vast data sets, has seen steady growth since its public listing. As of mid-2023, Palantir's market capitalization is around $38 billion. The company plays a crucial role in the national security framework of the United States and its allies and is poised to grow further amid the rapidly emerging geopolitical AI threats.\n\nThis question asks: Given its increasing importance in maintaining national security and its role in combating AI threats, will Palantir Technologies Inc.'s market capitalization exceed $80 billion on or before December 31, 2026?" }, { "id": 18134, "title": "Will Moderna Rank Among the Top 5 Biotech Companies Globally by Market Cap Before the End of 2028?", "short_title": "Moderna in Global Top 5 Biotech by 2028?", "url_title": "Moderna in Global Top 5 Biotech by 2028?", "slug": "moderna-in-global-top-5-biotech-by-2028", "author_id": 151184, "author_username": "AW001", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-28T21:03:54.047695Z", "published_at": "2023-09-02T21:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.197134Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-02T21:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-02T21:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18134, "title": "Will Moderna Rank Among the Top 5 Biotech Companies Globally by Market Cap Before the End of 2028?", "created_at": "2023-07-28T21:03:54.047695Z", "open_time": "2023-09-02T21:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-04T21:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-04T21:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA), a pioneer in mRNA-based vaccine technology, has made significant strides in the biotech industry, most notably through its critical role in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. As of mid-2023, Moderna's market cap ranks it outside of the top 5 biotech companies globally.\n\nThis question asks: Will Moderna ascend to be one of the top 5 biotech companies globally by market capitalization on or before December 31, 2028?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) ranks among the top 5 biotech companies globally by market capitalization on any day on or before December 31, 2028, according to official data from a reputable source like Bloomberg or Reuters. If Moderna does not reach this position by the specified date, the question will resolve negatively.\n\nPredictions on this question could take into account numerous factors including the overall health of the biotech sector, potential breakthroughs in Moderna's pipeline, competitive landscape, global market trends, and the long-term impact and acceptance of mRNA technology.", "fine_print": "Note: Biotech companies for this question are defined as companies primarily engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and/or marketing of products based on genetic analysis and genetic engineering.", "post_id": 18134, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750096114.788546, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.221 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750096114.788546, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.221 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.779, 0.221 ], "means": [ 0.2612128792373068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.27120971924598375, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6122828572923774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.9624720026808239, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287243.381803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287243.381803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8579738929760807, 0.14202610702391924 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNA), a pioneer in mRNA-based vaccine technology, has made significant strides in the biotech industry, most notably through its critical role in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic. As of mid-2023, Moderna's market cap ranks it outside of the top 5 biotech companies globally.\n\nThis question asks: Will Moderna ascend to be one of the top 5 biotech companies globally by market capitalization on or before December 31, 2028?" }, { "id": 18133, "title": "Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?", "short_title": "LK-99 Replication Try Before August 4, 2023?", "url_title": "LK-99 Replication Try Before August 4, 2023?", "slug": "lk-99-replication-try-before-august-4-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-28T19:51:10.301711Z", "published_at": "2023-07-29T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.434239Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-29T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T03:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-03T22:00:00Z", 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"2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 18133, "title": "Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-28T19:51:10.301711Z", "open_time": "2023-07-29T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-29T15:10:53.602415Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-29T15:10:53.602415Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-03T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-01T03:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-01T03:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-03T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-01T03:04:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called [\"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.\n\n*Background information copied from [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/)*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before August 4, 2023, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a preprint or paper describing a complete replication attempt of the LK-99 results has been published. To be considered a complete replication attempt the paper must test the main findings of the original paper, including all of the following:\n\n* The synthesis of LK-99\n* Testing whether the critical temperature (Tc) exceeds 400 K (127 C) — the Tc is the temperature at or below which the material becomes superconducting\n* Testing whether the resistance drops to the stated threshold of 10^-10 Ω·cm — true superconductors exhibit near-zero electrical resistance below their critical temperature\n\nThe results of the replication are irrelevant for the purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* To be considered a preprint or a paper for the purposes of this question the attempted replication must be complete and the methodology and results must be published in a manuscript accessible by the public.\n* Later retractions or claims questioning the veracity of the replication attempt will be irrelevant for the purposes of this question, it will resolve according to the first assessment made by Metaculus.\n* Metaculus may rely on reporting from credible sources to assess whether these criteria have been met, and for papers not published in English Metaculus may use credible reporting or machine translation as appropriate. In the event it is unclear whether a paper has met these requirements Metaculus will make a determination as to the appropriate resolution, including waiting for further confirmation, as needed, or may resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 18133, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690866182.462775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690866182.462775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5323231200039223 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3518036651303303, 0.7550282799560074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05980572861406049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008792191366882515, 0.0, 0.7086466834526424, 0.0, 0.07650168018741535, 0.027172461172235523, 0.0236217822833125, 0.24798860807767495, 0.0, 0.21373137041938572, 0.01769764244862202, 0.0, 0.6427010709991108, 0.1611814906125844, 0.05272603343263099, 0.33229019138276084, 0.0010953801287727689, 0.2641052515291398, 0.9548091858972665, 0.22553616108810334, 0.45632923417995364, 0.0, 0.2214014891401162, 0.17568192869408386, 0.03812750310025072, 0.0026914523047215848, 0.2645246477336361, 0.18745450173247874, 0.0, 0.01034082290967558, 0.09158350927890618, 0.0, 1.356236952668591, 0.0, 0.04072631967289526, 0.0021847845343716758, 0.0, 0.23967598995297798, 0.0, 0.08126580419860814, 0.0, 0.056168459797005146, 0.8765859639809341, 0.00011339842917678962, 0.8697272916366073, 0.0006409544199756206, 0.0012388791731117433, 0.7208018769604029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4720626250072921, 0.0, 0.0007383426461566485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004798613526973252, 0.0, 0.04946924327592166, 0.014281632080376331, 0.005253349196630287, 1.3996528875335583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.277591499430506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6865516204292617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.375035352623171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9773621370000798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3610658760156533, 0.0, 1.3428077147593482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35177712228870617 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.217724782792495, "coverage": 0.4806395455832936, "baseline_score": -27.53527316625638, "spot_peer_score": 107.64852210717821, "peer_archived_score": 4.217724782792495, "baseline_archived_score": -27.53527316625638, "spot_peer_archived_score": 107.64852210717821 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690857456.487784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690857456.487784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5577932832788502, 0.44220671672114975 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 242, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called [\"The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008) was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an [accompanying pre-print](https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037) on the synthesis of LK-99. This would be a significant breakthrough in superconductor research, if substantiated.\n\n*Background information copied from [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18090/room-temp-superconductor-pre-print-replicated/)*" }, { "id": 18110, "title": "Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?", "short_title": "Environmental war before 2073?", "url_title": "Environmental war before 2073?", "slug": "environmental-war-before-2073", "author_id": 151147, "author_username": "aaaa12", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-28T10:47:01.069648Z", "published_at": "2023-08-08T16:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T09:41:43.349905Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-08T16:59:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2072-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2073-07-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-08T16:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18110, "title": "Will non-compliance with environmental and climate change policies be cited as a cause of a war before 2073?", "created_at": "2023-07-28T10:47:01.069648Z", "open_time": "2023-08-08T16:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-10T16:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-10T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2073-07-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2072-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2072-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of 2023, the political gap between developed countries lead by the US and developing countries lead by China is growing. This gap is also seen in regard to compliance with environmental and climate change policies (pollution, deforestation, hunting etc). Will this [non-compliance](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/12/environment-fragility-and-conflict/) be cited as the primary cause of a war within the next 50 years?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 2073, at least two credible sources and one peer-reviewed academic paper attribute the cause of a war to non-compliance with climate change and environmental protection policies.", "fine_print": "The credible sources and academic paper must be about the same war.", "post_id": 18110, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757670092.163647, "end_time": 1789175333.605, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757670092.163647, "end_time": 1789175333.605, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.39037517252883924 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04635449784492113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.3346306710954027, 0.33043163511098544, 0.7429155235659053, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.09369360910749297, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.4531953338080791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.15266220141285267, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289107.825172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289107.825172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9072465604413041, 0.09275343955869582 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of 2023, the political gap between developed countries lead by the US and developing countries lead by China is growing. This gap is also seen in regard to compliance with environmental and climate change policies (pollution, deforestation, hunting etc). Will this [non-compliance](https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/12/environment-fragility-and-conflict/) be cited as the primary cause of a war within the next 50 years?" }, { "id": 18107, "title": "Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?", "short_title": "Deflation before 2030?", "url_title": "Deflation before 2030?", "slug": "deflation-before-2030", "author_id": 129147, "author_username": "txmerritt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-27T14:51:43.068912Z", "published_at": "2023-08-04T04:09:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T15:12:03.170589Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-04T04:09:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-04T04:09:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 18107, "title": "Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-07-27T14:51:43.068912Z", "open_time": "2023-08-04T04:09:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-06T04:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-06T04:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=17xbb&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>\n\nThe Federal Reserve recently implemented a series of aggressive interest rate hikes in response to economic conditions in the United States. [Ray Dalio]( https://time.com/6286449/ray-dalio-world-great-disorder/) a prominent investor and economic commentator, has proposed a theory that during severe and prolonged economic crises, there tends to be an oscillation between inflationary and deflationary periods. This question aims to assess the likelihood of the US experiencing a deflationary cycle within the timeframe of 2023 to 2030.\n\nDeflation can be [indirectly measured](https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2023/04/08/deflation-is-the-future/?sh=6e2bcd47216a) using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is a widely used metric that tracks the changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services typically consumed by households. It is a key indicator of inflation, which is the general increase in prices over time. Inflation and deflation are opposite phenomena, representing the rise and fall, respectively, in the overall price level of goods and services in an economy.\n\nWhen the CPI value declines over a sustained period, it [indicates deflation](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569874-deflation-and-slowing-growth-why-2023-will-see-both-continue). In other words, the purchasing power of money increases as prices decrease. This can be a concerning economic situation because deflation may lead to delayed consumer spending, reduced investment, and negative impacts on economic growth and employment.\n\nThe FED has been [aggressively raising the interest]( https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569874-deflation-and-slowing-growth-why-2023-will-see-both-continue) rates to cool inflation. However, [economists worry]( https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2022/7/6/weekly-comment-the-great-deflation-of-2023) about, the possibility of experiencing a sharp deflationary episode, a sort of whiplash effect, which would [force another about-turn]( https://www.timothyxmerritt.com/post/facing-the-unfathomable-government-strategies-for-dealing-with-a-greater-depression) for central banks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers [(CPI-U)]( https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL) meets any one of these three criteria (measured as end of period to end of period):\n\n- CPI Metric 1: Annual CPI Percentage Change: A deflationary period will be considered to have occurred if the year-over-year percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for any given year between 2023 and 2030 is negative.\n\n- CPI Metric 2: CPI Quarterly Trend: A deflationary period will be considered to have occurred if there is a continuous decline in the CPI for three or more consecutive quarters during any period between 2023 and 2030.\n\n- CPI Metric 3: Cumulative CPI Change: A deflationary period will be considered to have occurred if there is a cumulative decline in the CPI of at least 2% over any period of two or more consecutive years between 2023 and 2030.", "fine_print": "It's important to note that while the CPI can be used as an indicator of deflation, it may not capture all aspects of the economy that can experience price changes. For a comprehensive assessment of deflation, other economic indicators and data, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI), wages, interest rates, and GDP growth, should also be considered to get a holistic view of the economic situation.\n\nThe resolution criteria outlined above are intended solely for the purposes of the Metaculus forecast and do not represent an exhaustive or comprehensive definition of deflation in economic theory or practice. Participants should consider that economic conditions and indicators are subject to change, and the resolution of this question may not perfectly align with real-world economic conditions.", "post_id": 18107, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762281329.098421, "end_time": 1764574695.831659, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762281329.098421, "end_time": 1764574695.831659, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.26675969336275696 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287415.750463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287415.750463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8764280157806337, 0.12357198421936631 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=17xbb&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>\n\nThe Federal Reserve recently implemented a series of aggressive interest rate hikes in response to economic conditions in the United States. [Ray Dalio]( https://time.com/6286449/ray-dalio-world-great-disorder/) a prominent investor and economic commentator, has proposed a theory that during severe and prolonged economic crises, there tends to be an oscillation between inflationary and deflationary periods. This question aims to assess the likelihood of the US experiencing a deflationary cycle within the timeframe of 2023 to 2030.\n\nDeflation can be [indirectly measured](https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2023/04/08/deflation-is-the-future/?sh=6e2bcd47216a) using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is a widely used metric that tracks the changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services typically consumed by households. It is a key indicator of inflation, which is the general increase in prices over time. Inflation and deflation are opposite phenomena, representing the rise and fall, respectively, in the overall price level of goods and services in an economy.\n\nWhen the CPI value declines over a sustained period, it [indicates deflation](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569874-deflation-and-slowing-growth-why-2023-will-see-both-continue). In other words, the purchasing power of money increases as prices decrease. This can be a concerning economic situation because deflation may lead to delayed consumer spending, reduced investment, and negative impacts on economic growth and employment.\n\nThe FED has been [aggressively raising the interest]( https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569874-deflation-and-slowing-growth-why-2023-will-see-both-continue) rates to cool inflation. However, [economists worry]( https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2022/7/6/weekly-comment-the-great-deflation-of-2023) about, the possibility of experiencing a sharp deflationary episode, a sort of whiplash effect, which would [force another about-turn]( https://www.timothyxmerritt.com/post/facing-the-unfathomable-government-strategies-for-dealing-with-a-greater-depression) for central banks." }, { "id": 18102, "title": "Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?", "short_title": "Safer Transfer Finished in 19 Days?", "url_title": "Safer Transfer Finished in 19 Days?", "slug": "safer-transfer-finished-in-19-days", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-26T20:12:50.906451Z", "published_at": "2023-07-29T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.869014Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-29T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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"2023-07-29T17:54:48.039796Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-29T17:54:48.039796Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-13T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-11T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-13T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-11T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The oil storage vessel FSO Safer holds more than 1.1 million barrels of oil (four times that of Exxon Valdez), and has for the past few years been moored off the coast of Yemen. [An operation began on July 25th to remove the oil from the vessel:](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/un-oil-tanker-salvage-operation-begins-in-yemen-1.6916853) \n\n> An international team began siphoning oil out of a decrepit oil tanker off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday, the United Nations chief said, a crucial step in a complex salvage operation.\n\nHowever,\n> The vessel has not been maintained for eight years and its structural integrity is compromised, making it at risk of breaking up or exploding.\n\nAs of July 25, the oil is,\n\n> being moved to another vessel which had been purchased by the UN. The oil transfer came after months of on-site preparatory work and is scheduled to be completed in less than three weeks.\n\n[The United Nations (UN) says](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1139057) the transfer\n\n> will continue round-the-clock over the next 19 days.\n\nThis puts the estimated last date of transfer on August 13.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the oil transfer is completed before August 14, 2023. It resolves **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "* This question is concerned with reports about the transfer of oil being completed, cleaning residue from tanks and other follow-up operations are irrelevant for the purposes of this question.\n* This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are credible reports that the transfer has been completed, regardless of whether an oil leak or other disaster occurs.", "post_id": 18102, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691778841.332536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691778841.332536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.931040479788425 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3329886027126942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46979617729051704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017624230778577688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026668637948713955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007509578610630234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015317060478821994, 0.00036646777991410795, 0.4440181252868051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009137994324451541, 0.0015760241141014868, 0.10840936769172026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0049050175151399145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0635122425565706, 0.02048244170540977, 0.09763871499621768, 0.1501736291858285, 1.1660682076633428, 2.1326895840607922, 0.44186800381103175, 1.994419288469858, 3.0957752174307753, 6.263376314056592 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.389181138535717, "coverage": 0.8786324974421599, "baseline_score": 64.12279768943546, "spot_peer_score": 38.1201812059184, "peer_archived_score": 4.389181138535717, "baseline_archived_score": 64.12279768943546, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.1201812059184 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691757009.874443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691757009.874443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.053040686416187754, 0.9469593135838122 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 391, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The oil storage vessel FSO Safer holds more than 1.1 million barrels of oil (four times that of Exxon Valdez), and has for the past few years been moored off the coast of Yemen. [An operation began on July 25th to remove the oil from the vessel:](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/un-oil-tanker-salvage-operation-begins-in-yemen-1.6916853) \n\n> An international team began siphoning oil out of a decrepit oil tanker off the coast of Yemen on Tuesday, the United Nations chief said, a crucial step in a complex salvage operation.\n\nHowever,\n> The vessel has not been maintained for eight years and its structural integrity is compromised, making it at risk of breaking up or exploding.\n\nAs of July 25, the oil is,\n\n> being moved to another vessel which had been purchased by the UN. The oil transfer came after months of on-site preparatory work and is scheduled to be completed in less than three weeks.\n\n[The United Nations (UN) says](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/07/1139057) the transfer\n\n> will continue round-the-clock over the next 19 days.\n\nThis puts the estimated last date of transfer on August 13." }, { "id": 18098, "title": "Bude mezi srpnem 2023 a srpnem 2025 alespoň v jednom měsíci Českým statistickým úřadem evidováno pozitivní saldo indikátoru důvěry spotřebitelů?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "bude-mezi-srpnem-2023-a-srpnem-2025-alespon-v-jednom-mesici-ceskym-statistickym-uradem-evidovano-pozitivni-saldo-indikatoru-duvery-spotrebitelu", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-26T16:19:56.240953Z", "published_at": "2023-07-26T16:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T17:46:14.204300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-26T16:32:45.970822Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-26T16:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 18098, "title": "Bude mezi srpnem 2023 a srpnem 2025 alespoň v jednom měsíci Českým statistickým úřadem evidováno pozitivní saldo indikátoru důvěry spotřebitelů?", "created_at": "2023-07-26T16:19:56.240953Z", "open_time": "2023-07-26T16:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-28T16:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-28T16:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-23T17:46:14.170778Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Široký přehled o vnímání ekonomické situace obyvateli poskytují konjunkturální průzkumy, které ČSÚ provádí s měsíční frekvencí. 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