Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3520
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3540", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3500", "results": [ { "id": 14258, "title": "Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?", "short_title": "Twitter Net Income in 2023", "url_title": "Twitter Net Income in 2023", "slug": "twitter-net-income-in-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T22:47:55.683668Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.389757Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T20:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T20:58:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 139, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14258, "title": "Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T22:47:55.683668Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T20:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T20:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T20:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>To be resolved using https://www.statista.com/statistics/299119/twitter-net-income-quarterly/ . If not all four quarters of data are available in January 2024 when we resolve this question, we will compare however many quarters of 2023 are available to their 2022 equivalents.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14258, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703968505.55539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703968505.55539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0296638285898255 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.224587370573407, 9.276745276119282, 2.0596150899660888, 1.335163067482112, 0.6821182836209072, 1.2400409931782763, 0.0, 0.049052617270469175, 0.855445379323967, 0.21376556468169744, 0.08754721442675956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25609282097595787, 0.022878537734593578, 0.0, 0.030708915492302515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29314755172975593, 0.003907614770882093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01697987551932427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010685104336458324, 0.0, 0.043882979222810564, 0.030473498912652823, 0.03671592301809389, 0.0327216285011053, 0.06575588558613697, 0.0011251643978816084, 0.025997935210798736, 0.0, 0.0005926377757880836, 0.017529687090754177, 0.0018133114996303104, 0.0028123176771588064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.137232392663339, 0.012847635003709506, 0.002896110587949241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008577464500040863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030585139367906395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005275929838576645, 0.0038111729130598103, 0.0, 8.780989364669577e-05, 0.0, 0.00036455148203279173, 0.0, 0.0, 7.09341805741482e-05, 0.0, 0.001985148096690315, 5.601863680241811e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000917374658608288, 0.0, 4.28512682904026e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001226047171794623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021701220406957554 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.18819416373911, "coverage": 0.9999308061769605, "baseline_score": 37.30385019580673, "spot_peer_score": 19.305219422209483, "peer_archived_score": 17.18819416373911, "baseline_archived_score": 37.30385019580673, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.305219422209483 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008280.473581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008280.473581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9956911314888012, 0.004308868511198828 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 479, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 14257, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?", "short_title": "Musk Ownership of Twitter on January 1, 2024", "url_title": "Musk Ownership of Twitter on January 1, 2024", "slug": "musk-ownership-of-twitter-on-january-1-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T22:45:45.681941Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.675563Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 139, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14257, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T22:45:45.681941Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>If there is no publicly available data about ownership stakes, this will resolve positively unless there is some strong reason to think he is no longer majority owner.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14257, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703936052.322823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703936052.322823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9888791160792466 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007411923182113684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.28512682904026e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020899476959033184, 0.0004681506103020112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015059618221520462, 8.780989364669577e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.601863680241811e-05, 0.0, 0.00017910318559305797, 3.1183777191757426e-05, 0.0004928181653786703, 0.01538975860118121, 0.0030585139367906395, 0.08752982506510122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042387407998525355, 0.11100688240690311, 0.006568925661617715, 0.008313902856466732, 0.0005275929838576645, 0.00949859718874011, 0.0011960985784557566, 0.0061928342646104615, 0.0, 0.1288096977191472, 0.21563700849196454, 0.005340758482102225, 0.003054523058764889, 0.17552908884073498, 0.001237061476408894, 0.09091342462231396, 0.05574024451697377, 0.1012118952642155, 0.2001331909406569, 20.81010441541715 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.913843260750873, "coverage": 0.9999301921806163, "baseline_score": 84.60927268131819, "spot_peer_score": 11.802237266792122, "peer_archived_score": 9.913843260750873, "baseline_archived_score": 84.60927268131819, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.802237266792122 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008498.112453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008498.112453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 139, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.004712593213000105, 0.9952874067869999 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 439, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 14256, "title": "In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?", "short_title": "UK General Election in 2023", "url_title": "UK General Election in 2023", "slug": "uk-general-election-in-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T22:40:55.760821Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.843589Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14256, "title": "In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T22:40:55.760821Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the UK hold its next general election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14256, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703968491.518945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703968491.518945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.007119215193799073 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.961489678026853, 5.555615464827357, 0.04505579176665399, 0.004864207403270418, 0.009894674030835396, 0.018784009834176364, 0.14169899862879654, 0.0031850658336675212, 0.008226635416206747, 0.0, 0.26687848320400226, 0.0, 0.0019635611227905984, 0.011919095974040044, 0.0030578221601624896, 0.00019633165325508485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010926343965683243, 0.13127805624182545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02530708346119719, 0.029167692310064743, 0.00023455588296053762, 0.0, 0.0, 6.600593577271142e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.8033920035236966e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002758815278191228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.941564166536102, "coverage": 0.9999868911290245, "baseline_score": 88.45927381813013, "spot_peer_score": 12.417031108809214, "peer_archived_score": 9.941564166536102, "baseline_archived_score": 88.45927381813013, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.417031108809214 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008268.57337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008268.57337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 129, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 380, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the UK hold its next general election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 14255, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?", "short_title": "Rishi Sunak Prime Ministership on Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Rishi Sunak Prime Ministership on Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "rishi-sunak-prime-ministership-on-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T22:32:46.206435Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.086284Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 153, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14255, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T22:32:46.206435Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the UK hold its next general election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14255, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703968485.043573, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703968485.043573, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9892128967953046 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.973616215523941e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4004576236208302e-05, 0.0, 0.00013567947413321504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020195049459166576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.185288794897423e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007668920925709966, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7468639477822135e-05, 0.00015629495458424484, 0.0010157873003403706, 0.010471822495116637, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018265949936623564, 0.0005477844742062646, 0.0001790833012829217, 0.020567656648986188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002052031035478942, 0.07261944670683691, 0.0003717901700441367, 0.00011707543509799753, 0.00041520375517523783, 0.003522140177979124, 0.0026232629577220726, 0.0032274358995859785, 0.18182886130505108, 0.12572142456487426, 0.0023750085640517433, 0.005204557268301259, 0.0029918051263727132, 0.005751961649463862, 0.001861161829857711, 0.49123164099614414, 0.4414144929150101, 0.17701857988535177, 0.8048317672410747, 20.86254836025903 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.93136058115348, "coverage": 0.999814966523488, "baseline_score": 83.91464553619778, "spot_peer_score": 13.886642510419863, "peer_archived_score": 11.93136058115348, "baseline_archived_score": 83.91464553619778, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.886642510419863 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008363.593745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008363.593745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.006911524132268032, 0.993088475867732 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 499, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the UK hold its next general election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/)" }, { "id": 14253, "title": "In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?", "short_title": "Trump Indictment in 2023", "url_title": "Trump Indictment in 2023", "slug": "trump-indictment-in-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T22:25:46.153594Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.406084Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-03-30T23:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-30T23:41:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 179, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14253, "title": "In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T22:25:46.153594Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-03-30T23:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-03-30T23:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-03-30T23:41:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/)\n* [Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10832/donald-trump-jailed-by-2030/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14253, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680223142.113642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680223142.113642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 179, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9377276696354173 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.005719715586976364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002404005602285864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033750732198213086, 0.0, 9.974400012593614e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035107364293984326, 1.4475974949345885e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.265084934577449e-05, 0.005270514850507539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005035723224531732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3345696228472476, 0.00015125967966683887, 0.0, 0.004257779102235492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005739269829387515, 0.00018721429457124278, 0.0003073309007828217, 0.0059639593173764025, 8.447219252883634e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005270915710472413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003423041899722137, 0.0, 0.3078774118591014, 0.0, 0.0008088830723582435, 0.0, 0.0012134461132717283, 0.00438846957865201, 0.0008634860290756102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025098357037538634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007318389178361792, 0.0004051213940279699, 0.00016162018286692244, 0.021045814696613787, 0.40032367606728286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08712552484599478, 7.439626536796677e-05, 0.0013735301879668333, 0.04580060312536322, 0.11600569434056217, 0.4261498338138544, 0.0, 0.4095924836963597, 0.0, 0.037643942709189054, 0.8336069303344718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1955873813889381, 0.0, 0.44009699285539644, 0.26250278657910475, 0.020960006699980376, 0.5947340317796148, 0.0, 0.7241901592252766, 0.24151410129027254, 0.40773960617492544, 0.10144978769873395, 0.5214373745515629, 0.6384969965618016, 0.5890127959457884, 0.23736812251735895, 0.2328335694631577, 16.960596954527833 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.596351425730533, "coverage": 0.26339974092367474, "baseline_score": 6.048182668929449, "spot_peer_score": 38.79638851785457, "peer_archived_score": 6.596351425730533, "baseline_archived_score": 6.048182668929449, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.79638851785457 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1680186868.00976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 173, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1680186868.00976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 173, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.13475829927694583, 0.8652417007230542 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 615, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/)\n* [Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10832/donald-trump-jailed-by-2030/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 14252, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?", "short_title": "Joe Biden Approval Rating Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Joe Biden Approval Rating Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "joe-biden-approval-rating-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T21:39:11.114244Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.971523Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 117, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 14252, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T21:39:11.114244Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)\n* [If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8483/trump-victory-if-biden-v-trump-2024/)\n* [Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n\n----\n\n***On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus dispproval) rating?***\n\nTo clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ . Currently he is at 51% disapprove, 43% approve, so his approval - disapproval is -8 and this question would resolve as \"no\".\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14252, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703973223.66425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703973223.66425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.015222592406902125 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.028734888320582, 9.558794410012675, 0.4657460861588746, 0.033198419931059535, 0.5149969453344884, 0.7628331043033361, 0.0, 0.22933659711676985, 0.0021847845343716758, 0.04638926826110738, 0.06083899168249876, 0.0, 0.025531407437700993, 0.0038238555684389636, 0.0015683128067471189, 0.033358077258246556, 0.0014869499858813002, 0.0, 0.006348729325403056, 0.000964722097288496, 0.003619451526297084, 0.0062692961974143155, 0.0, 0.22167549274543652, 0.056168459797005146, 0.016878410090192066, 0.04621653661821782, 0.0, 0.0005530683110029844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004881135970075275, 0.0003394354703474903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026914523047215848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017563493248750701 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.779322255522366, "coverage": 0.9998145253305275, "baseline_score": 83.76174711212505, "spot_peer_score": 11.385367963481803, "peer_archived_score": 12.779322255522366, "baseline_archived_score": 83.76174711212505, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.385367963481803 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008411.607416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008411.607416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 117, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 352, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 14251, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?", "short_title": "Ukrainian Control of Zaporizhzhia Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Ukrainian Control of Zaporizhzhia Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "ukrainian-control-of-zaporizhzhia-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T21:31:06.433939Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.515056Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 238, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14251, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T21:31:06.433939Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)\n* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/)\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14251, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704053811.230198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 238, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.993 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704053811.230198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 238, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.993 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.007000000000000006, 0.993 ], "means": [ 0.9766447857150705 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00023493990294454347, 0.005626330336532621, 3.3759915108400477e-06, 0.0, 0.00031004925308313546, 0.00045224436980190197, 0.00035480796908739085, 0.0027729137776131762, 8.744626301396779e-05, 0.00015164033777626643, 0.0005948218431443748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001301910042792897, 0.0, 8.050038261726797e-05, 0.0, 0.00025206585077277514, 0.0, 0.12471355728339394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0078780530051255e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01865342547302625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.590355812944293e-05, 0.0, 0.00027025460289164, 0.0, 0.0, 9.488597811622755e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.6768917589163596e-05, 0.0003792123629984851, 6.88007796098422e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03832229029904661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002188227272525199, 0.0, 0.15528249065631303, 6.76743619624907e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.826894135425358e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11634424544325164, 0.26970132073974423, 0.0, 0.0012553659295106065, 0.0, 3.269693854409301e-05, 0.001923924575650555, 0.002366325140387701, 7.3434827036910236e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06618536995821346, 0.10483779558984808, 0.06465621275441123, 0.0, 0.00018941048491960877, 0.12737537336407057, 0.014961478812479435, 6.374869068509236e-06, 0.07408728786281747, 0.0, 0.10781282949359983, 0.0, 0.07071805915938484, 0.19121985758093865, 1.0277019225501716, 0.8251284030226976, 0.0027471253509329637, 0.5163036277485367, 1.0281711265842772, 24.394227131392714 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 32.25365521508797, "coverage": 0.9998142930209647, "baseline_score": 85.41135025152066, "spot_peer_score": 15.508611946190253, "peer_archived_score": 32.25365521508797, "baseline_archived_score": 85.41135025152066, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.508611946190253 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704053811.267085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 238, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704053811.267085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 238, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.004335678426751199, 0.9956643215732488 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 749, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)\n* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/)\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 14250, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?", "short_title": "Ukrainian Control of Luhansk Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Ukrainian Control of Luhansk Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "ukrainian-control-of-luhansk-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T21:26:55.314606Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.560990Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 204, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14250, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T21:26:55.314606Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)\n* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/)\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n> If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14250, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704038729.693144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704038729.693144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.012710987463120261 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.15517862031308, 9.934973516619948, 0.583013761606112, 0.08220485965321417, 0.011191746928239748, 0.0823081989972955, 0.3133841366996994, 0.003441877798005478, 0.03992199445629399, 0.016019231784901933, 0.010699362477299976, 2.3062432070470694e-05, 0.036125195296993665, 0.005077903207204141, 0.011866938113869557, 0.146360868550056, 0.012846701928790907, 0.0013844673043215776, 0.00203592733297681, 0.0006377799461601662, 0.09048124359973386, 0.0358502152782519, 1.727531305313514e-05, 0.3472748695218117, 0.0, 0.10556698096796793, 0.005989750819270775, 0.00253837036061566, 0.01464577511209513, 0.0, 0.006928799971948901, 0.001988053799905641, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2586863627758347e-05, 0.0, 5.245492690926648e-06, 0.0, 4.456024685605512e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5776219865348518e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006872194687950764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006596293939254747, 0.0, 0.0, 7.2582840464508235e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018680561941889341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0053670776440874115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.628394316966034, "coverage": 0.9998636475572272, "baseline_score": 86.73679663794907, "spot_peer_score": 20.405183392315966, "peer_archived_score": 12.628394316966034, "baseline_archived_score": 86.73679663794907, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.405183392315966 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704038729.737065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704038729.737065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 204, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 554, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)\n* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/)\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 14249, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?", "short_title": "Ukraine Control of Sevastopol on Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Ukraine Control of Sevastopol on Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "ukraine-control-of-sevastopol-on-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T21:24:14.142054Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.865898Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 183, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14249, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T21:24:14.142054Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)\n* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/)\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>If there is active fighting over the city, whoever controls the main train station (or, if destroyed, the piece of ground where the train station used to be) is counted as controlling the city.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPlease note that this questions resolves differently (based on control over the train station's location) than a similar Metaculus question. The latter question, which can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/), resolves based on control of 50% of Sevastopol's territory.\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14249, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704038719.599668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704038719.599668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011308013817960049 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.832096142537672, 7.006543338419061, 0.3266046184820346, 0.3265562163479821, 0.005735106300775097, 0.21038546424026222, 0.004784391231124942, 0.06889357666447421, 0.000961401399421189, 0.00010423627976368666, 0.033050369059731945, 0.004499851630125145, 0.2779537504129534, 0.00017296521069860382, 0.0, 0.0016450189389925025, 0.0040225754422797315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013105015440532481, 6.411925095207665e-05, 0.00011673393139609786, 9.279585627766448e-05, 0.007259647598855741, 0.2558119664341466, 0.09998080132789969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021657801486712272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006848363823302423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.234081589228692e-05, 4.6946090068633494e-05, 0.04561846320522683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2560225547252446e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016135272753352675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019789989053898164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003504380980674736 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.68090057263324, "coverage": 0.9999843570761364, "baseline_score": 93.69948774052212, "spot_peer_score": 20.809462315911997, "peer_archived_score": 13.68090057263324, "baseline_archived_score": 93.69948774052212, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.809462315911997 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704038719.641912, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704038719.641912, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 183, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 473, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10737/ukraine-controls-sevastapol-on-jan-1-2024/)\n* [Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10745/russian-control-of-new-territory-2024-01-01/)\n* [Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10738/ukraine-controls-dnrlnr-on-jan-1-2024/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 14248, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?", "short_title": "Biden Nomination According to Markets", "url_title": "Biden Nomination According to Markets", "slug": "biden-nomination-according-to-markets", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T20:04:28.348382Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.119038Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14248, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T20:04:28.348382Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14248, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704002972.490371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704002972.490371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9855277812480202 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04911348047969523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009021387193428454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032756747009718436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0667569021157886e-05, 0.0003460610372143065, 0.0, 0.007924319535185893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019967802223232184, 0.0, 0.00852623485987292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059092906391963164, 0.09649087341640786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002287917707268938, 0.08118592431053921, 0.0005006064580286218, 0.0, 0.002828217215011833, 0.03379482944385156, 0.02763777880211899, 0.0016954738724691153, 0.01569811903842983, 0.0, 0.46413015529156626, 0.08906815692422357, 0.02414131374979513, 0.0035400481346353433, 0.14839507966252036, 0.1383456687222438, 0.0006565418430667994, 0.2279294475925392, 1.1724849728927724, 20.08587219249735 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.743405438965723, "coverage": 0.9999260215615045, "baseline_score": 77.89872868033181, "spot_peer_score": 19.676150334886238, "peer_archived_score": 12.743405438965723, "baseline_archived_score": 77.89872868033181, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.676150334886238 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008226.42247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008226.42247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 147, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.008038430036708788, 0.9919615699632912 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 521, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 14247, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?", "short_title": "Newsom Nomination According to Markets", "url_title": "Newsom Nomination According to Markets", "slug": "newsom-nomination-according-to-markets", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T19:59:05.072312Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.881178Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14247, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T19:59:05.072312Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14247, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703968440.004687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703968440.004687, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008196026496128795 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.153555403035863, 3.842221080057879, 0.46412494884672695, 0.4299679528624432, 0.1014154860715046, 0.14671858687758352, 0.06643295307694717, 0.01831563888873418, 0.015143096285655109, 0.003929177578703275, 0.004567425305242902, 0.0, 0.0016708066845587725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005258417441048667, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.0, 0.0012515466035336708, 0.012799764914942113, 0.21082177823622764, 0.02962136754402973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012340980408667956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042478303617855785, 0.0003354626279025118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.610041570047703, "coverage": 0.9998132184370143, "baseline_score": 92.61498936421978, "spot_peer_score": 16.819640456183883, "peer_archived_score": 7.610041570047703, "baseline_archived_score": 92.61498936421978, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.819640456183883 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008203.307982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008203.307982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 327, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 14228, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?", "short_title": "Trump Nomination According to Markets?", "url_title": "Trump Nomination According to Markets?", "slug": "trump-nomination-according-to-markets", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T19:32:55.837520Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.852347Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 153, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14228, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T19:32:55.837520Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14228, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034064.758181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034064.758181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9819098483345806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0001790833012829217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.138071967109741e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4004576236208302e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.185288794897423e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010157873003403706, 0.006598930764166012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023187389807455535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018101752024126895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.918965926634064e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009711078414065754, 0.0005714987097594827, 0.0, 0.00010033066101054557, 0.0, 0.0005577991964143431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0041781983055885884, 0.07261944670683691, 0.0014403467341359529, 0.0, 5.720480163306154e-05, 0.11812298098012328, 0.0019968413039909262, 0.0, 0.023121517308285468, 0.035628804427941925, 0.0019357178006648608, 0.04116249873818941, 0.0013271065535095208, 0.0, 0.0037462988724190948, 0.000843615062305273, 0.009311383491051659, 0.0574475372480777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017557560866647972, 0.0, 0.021257755062996278, 0.0845999215021197, 0.0025639848737358008, 0.006575755661803089, 0.0, 0.05599550292693024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5211730737276219, 0.0027709191840107803, 0.10105198916039734, 0.22167645154668464, 0.14798849247102486, 0.23493518625815957, 0.31766580324405674, 1.1040573709738934, 0.4247142074620459, 19.59227103765721 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 24.050552190614596, "coverage": 0.9998130969077563, "baseline_score": 36.70489317757102, "spot_peer_score": 5.966734891921875, "peer_archived_score": 24.050552190614596, "baseline_archived_score": 36.70489317757102, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.966734891921875 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034064.80218, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034064.80218, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 153, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.011645162264327436, 0.9883548377356726 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 581, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n* [Who will be elected to be US President in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 14223, "title": "Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?", "short_title": "Third-party US President Before 2080", "url_title": "Third-party US President Before 2080", "slug": "third-party-us-president-before-2080", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-21T18:58:43.043359Z", "published_at": "2023-02-24T13:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:18:14.452503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-02-24T13:26:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2080-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2080-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-02-24T13:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14223, "title": "Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?", "created_at": "2022-12-21T18:58:43.043359Z", "open_time": "2023-02-24T13:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-26T13:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-26T13:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2080-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2080-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2080-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the past, [US presidents](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) ran on the tickets of various different parties. However, since the administration of Franklin Pierce starting in 1853, all US presidents have been members of either the Democratic or Republican parties. This has granted these two parties an effective duopoly over American politics.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any US president who is not running on the tickets of either the Republican or Democratic parties is inaugurated before January 1, 2080. In other words, the president must be either an independent or third-party candidate. A president who is inaugurated through the death or resignation of a sitting Democratic or Republican president and who did not achieve their most recent position on the ticket of either party will also be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**. A president changing their party after inauguration would **not** be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "* Being part of a coalition including the \"Democratic Party\" or \"Republican Party\" is sufficient to resolve as **Yes** so long as the president was not inaugurated directly as a member of either party.\n* The policy positions and political stances of the parties are irrelevant to the question, this question will solely be based on a membership in parties with the exact names of \"Democratic Party\" or \"Republican Party\". For example, membership in an official party with the name \"Democratic Socialists of America\" without also running as part of the \"Democratic Party\" or \"Republican Party\" would resolve the question as **Yes**. Similarly, a party changing its name to anything other than \"Democratic Party\" or \"Republican Party\" means a president inaugurated as a member of that party would result in this question resolving as **Yes**.", "post_id": 14223, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757639883.944021, "end_time": 1762042296.293862, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.321 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757639883.944021, "end_time": 1762042296.293862, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.321 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.679, 0.321 ], "means": [ 0.34452529464987314 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.02593106589452041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5221560426127164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.324845553212577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6716766914738247, 0.6571718575729804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11981076312780951, 0.0, 0.30445314579120214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5685529016609817, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5511712870837342, 0.2274691399399458, 0.8554006031583444, 2.0496501691495825, 0.7329875512980377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3665885696709727, 0.008663037296332391, 0.030784600481361255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4387232613217865, 0.0, 0.04896551112574321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5030218646281421, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036208439996911576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.056405454004622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06462956491704921, 0.0216015677189824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 0.0, 0.10666096661288105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1341757537316506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6183252296339623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09464378440008571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08368122008485587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06000358845676507 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289679.508836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289679.508836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7736084194788253, 0.2263915805211747 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the past, [US presidents](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States) ran on the tickets of various different parties. However, since the administration of Franklin Pierce starting in 1853, all US presidents have been members of either the Democratic or Republican parties. This has granted these two parties an effective duopoly over American politics." }, { "id": 14182, "title": "In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?", "short_title": "@realDonaldTrump Tweets in 2023?", "url_title": "@realDonaldTrump Tweets in 2023?", "slug": "realdonaldtrump-tweets-in-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-20T01:20:18.519130Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.131122Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-25T01:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-25T01:38:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 233, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 14182, "title": "In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?", "created_at": "2022-12-20T01:20:18.519130Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:42:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:42:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-25T01:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-25T01:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-25T01:38:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": ".", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>Resolves positively if the @realdonaldtrump account tweets with Trump's implied approval, even if the tweet was written by an intern. Does not resolve positively if the account is hacked or tweets apparently without Trump's approval.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14182, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692998861.683903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 260, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692998861.683903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 260, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9609270014859926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.034826727276568034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020980577238439133, 0.008141287046771797, 0.09789466797500929, 0.051222875549980645, 0.0, 0.025359144134850825, 0.004109846151653002, 0.010133050184715244, 0.03348715202891459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10661508486250171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024638149669909678, 0.08378717056345689, 0.0532046469202492, 0.011047341612957007, 0.03490503672799482, 0.0, 0.047992304820810676, 0.039328314240238554, 0.0, 0.12128026769229497, 0.00014418611792815837, 0.022534244148281007, 0.05522688054871779, 0.0, 0.03524573967517212, 0.030414358231886436, 0.022801016217989696, 0.0, 0.030977742777453326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040341889000878414, 0.011963358829194023, 0.03621553814453711, 0.012561717771603363, 0.01278333770846973, 0.017168494611295382, 0.007124785852289331, 0.08952778134347217, 0.0, 0.04229721223205021, 0.032430971319346295, 0.014428884005480098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0092891027346095, 0.012944791648356834, 3.104872385649873e-05, 0.002669627383143134, 0.00012098461065931105, 0.0, 0.005966930605854902, 0.0044814153655212425, 0.00027349429468485567, 0.003739281704040382, 4.189797687412076e-06, 0.0013997572239054297, 0.0014786151983839473, 8.964337183426594e-05, 0.00011698700651843431, 0.002989834864681209, 0.0043634005990740455, 0.0, 0.0032399070068353216, 5.545380776620836e-05, 0.0, 0.0032013353877831953, 0.0, 0.00029618819948888653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036000688516818944, 0.0011169690767150967, 6.914604358320489e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6197740672900376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1508315915681429e-06, 0.08021498085408102, 0.3561301248336797, 28.310877090701556 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -1.5183015568277305, "coverage": 0.6557167469006255, "baseline_score": 15.643574301110169, "spot_peer_score": 7.592860391162385, "peer_archived_score": -1.5183015568277305, "baseline_archived_score": 15.643574301110169, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.592860391162385 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692924239.164816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 233, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692924239.164816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 233, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8860978169884887, 0.11390218301151134 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 902, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "." }, { "id": 14181, "title": "In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?", "short_title": "US Supreme Court Change in 2023", "url_title": "US Supreme Court Change in 2023", "slug": "us-supreme-court-change-in-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-20T01:03:19.626044Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.455395Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14181, "title": "In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?", "created_at": "2022-12-20T01:03:19.626044Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the next (post-Breyer) US Supreme Court vacancy arise?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10441/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/)\n* [Will the US Supreme Court change its membership size before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/scotus-changes-size-before-2050/)\n* [Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-count-decline/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>Most likely justices dying or resigning, but court packing would also qualify.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14181, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704029364.653596, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.009 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704029364.653596, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.009 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.991, 0.009 ], "means": [ 0.011613814538381338 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.55081483559619, 7.251524430812362, 0.43745107989965903, 0.16510767698535844, 0.04013091792878877, 0.1913781477487484, 0.07266553055090581, 0.0, 0.04325450585999784, 0.020333447937361967, 0.12729988651756874, 0.0, 0.01847424658452035, 0.023142251301039172, 0.002539280627490721, 0.015030845848938258, 0.01511596887907778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012630607718125297, 0.011112676754327129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10035680769537357, 0.06731970719904372, 0.00412801400445961, 0.0, 0.0028831904530317756, 0.0, 0.01753863206437597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000390197396586153, 0.0002984801894823708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004940915054150324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0095357691321311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010606664926521671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.375537068755687, "coverage": 0.9997267608178908, "baseline_score": 82.18834955459647, "spot_peer_score": 15.792731850724289, "peer_archived_score": 8.375537068755687, "baseline_archived_score": 82.18834955459647, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.792731850724289 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704029364.68553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704029364.68553, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 352, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will the next (post-Breyer) US Supreme Court vacancy arise?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10441/date-next-scotus-vacancy-arises/)\n* [Will the US Supreme Court change its membership size before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/scotus-changes-size-before-2050/)\n* [Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-count-decline/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 14145, "title": "Will Visual Studio Code be the most popular IDE in every Stack Overflow Developer Survey until 2030?", "short_title": "Will VS Code maintain popularity until 2030?", "url_title": "Will VS Code maintain popularity until 2030?", "slug": "will-vs-code-maintain-popularity-until-2030", "author_id": 125456, "author_username": "aimaz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-18T14:06:53.791959Z", "published_at": "2023-04-13T15:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.826340Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-04-13T15:19:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T13:05:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-06-01T13:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-04-13T15:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14145, "title": "Will Visual Studio Code be the most popular IDE in every Stack Overflow Developer Survey until 2030?", "created_at": "2022-12-18T14:06:53.791959Z", "open_time": "2023-04-13T15:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-04-15T15:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-04-15T15:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-06-01T13:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T13:05:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T13:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The first non-preview release of Visual Studio Code was in 2016, that year it was ranked [13th](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2016) most popular IDE in the Stack Overflow developer survey results under the category 'Development Environments'. In 2017 it was 5th. It was ranked 1st every year since except for 2020 where the question about IDEs was not asked.\n\n[Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com) has surveyed software developers every year since 2011. One of the survey questions is around which development tools the respondent has used regularly over the previous year. You can find the results of all previous developer surveys on the [Stack Overflow Annual Developer Survey website](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if 'Visual Studio Code' is the number one Integrated development environment (IDE) in every Stack Overflow developer survey from 2023 up until and including 2030. \n\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the stack overflow developer survey does not publish its surveys through to 2030 or excludes the question about IDE choice for any year from 2023 to 2030.\n\nThe question will resolve **No** early if the Stack Overflow developer survey shows Visual Studio Code at any place that is not first.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14145, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756442748.898, "end_time": 1761711150.73067, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756442748.898, "end_time": 1761711150.73067, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.48070327245531386 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9212443800578234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.4741090772909049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.513036919095644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287262.169266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287262.169266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5448864880038319, 0.4551135119961681 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The first non-preview release of Visual Studio Code was in 2016, that year it was ranked [13th](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey/2016) most popular IDE in the Stack Overflow developer survey results under the category 'Development Environments'. In 2017 it was 5th. It was ranked 1st every year since except for 2020 where the question about IDEs was not asked.\n\n[Stack Overflow](https://stackoverflow.com) has surveyed software developers every year since 2011. One of the survey questions is around which development tools the respondent has used regularly over the previous year. You can find the results of all previous developer surveys on the [Stack Overflow Annual Developer Survey website](https://insights.stackoverflow.com/survey)." }, { "id": 14126, "title": "Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?", "short_title": "RUS Captures Major UA City Before June 2023?", "url_title": "RUS Captures Major UA City Before June 2023?", "slug": "rus-captures-major-ua-city-before-june-2023", "author_id": 134915, "author_username": "Firenze", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-16T22:35:52.599994Z", "published_at": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.018773Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T17:17:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 337, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14126, "title": "Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-12-16T22:35:52.599994Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-28T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-28T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-06-01T17:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-06-01T17:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-05-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a major Russian land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts before May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14030/another-russian-offensive-in-northern-ukraine/)\n\n---\n\nFrom the Wikipedia article [2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine&oldid=1127520037):\n\n>On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has likely resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides and caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II.\n\n>. . .\n\n>Russian attacks were initially launched on a northern front from Belarus towards Kyiv, a north-eastern front towards Kharkiv, a southern front from Crimea, and a south-eastern front from Luhansk and Donetsk. Russia's advance towards Kyiv stalled in March, with Russian troops retreating from the northern front by April. On the southern and south-eastern fronts, Russia captured Kherson in March and then Mariupol in May after a siege. On 19 April, Russia launched a renewed attack on the Donbas region, with Luhansk Oblast fully captured by 3 July. Ukrainian forces launched counteroffensives in the south in August, and in the northeast in September. In November, Ukraine retook the city of Kherson.\n\nIn December, there were reports about an upcoming Russian offensive.\n\n[The Economist: A looming Russian offensive](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/12/15/a-looming-russian-offensive)\n\n> Russia is massing men and arms for a new offensive. As soon as January, but more likely in the spring, it could launch a big attack from Donbas in the east, from the south or even from Belarus, a puppet state in the north. Russian troops will aim to drive back Ukrainian forces and could even stage a second attempt to take Kyiv, the capital.\n\n[The Economist: An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces](https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript)\n\n> Valery Zaluzhny: Russian mobilisation has worked. It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I’ve studied the history of the two Chechen wars—it was the same. They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us. We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people… The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.\n\n[The Institute for the Study of War: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-15)\n\n> Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed.\n\n> Putin continues to pursue maximalist goals in Ukraine using multiple mechanisms intended to compel Ukrainians to negotiate on Russia’s terms and likely make preemptive concessions highly favorable to Russia.\n\nFor more information about large cities in Ukraine see the Wikipedia article [List of cities in Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Ukraine) and the map below.\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\" alt=\"map of Ukrainian cities with populations indicated\" />\n\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\">Lencer</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0\">CC BY-SA 3.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Russia manages to capture or surround at least one *large* Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023, according to [The Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org) (ISW). A *large* city is a city with pre-war population of at least 100,000. Metaculus will interpret the assessment by ISW for qualifying cities that ISW describes as \"captured\" or \"surrounded\" or similar terms, or which are shown on maps from ISW to be clearly surrounded or within territory which ISW has indicated to be within an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory.\n\nExamples of such cities closest to the frontline are: **Sumy, Kharkiv, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson**.", "fine_print": "* Cities that were under Russian control as of December 21, 2022 do not affect the resolution of this question (based on [ISW's December 21, 2022 assessment](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-21))\n* If the map and characterization in the text of the assessment conflict, the text will be favored.\n* Language such as \"Russia likely captured\" the qualifying city will be sufficient for resolution.", "post_id": 14126, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685564849.800474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 337, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685564849.800474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 337, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.017411851742471972 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.250947705401234, 13.776530415430198, 1.3659211892679357, 1.7977973705757768, 0.06752021079419769, 0.05606515322444344, 0.00010435703828741601, 0.05352778841683902, 0.003740521823089117, 0.022599712766454953, 0.029369966621345098, 0.00030338489124635403, 0.10729551931687395, 0.012350527169903392, 0.004534328151177566, 0.01220046299640452, 0.0027185404208103755, 0.005131809036476781, 0.002531490467555073, 0.0, 0.004563740185080813, 2.516360371358224e-07, 0.008928228683601436, 0.0008727588674277337, 0.019609397688802238, 0.004614463169103697, 7.870495281273102e-08, 0.06583262561023899, 0.005998057896988506, 0.0, 0.015249521676354967, 0.0, 2.8953934058172226e-08, 1.2541192409285598e-05, 0.0034948257252148006, 0.00579077348456385, 0.02321305991416348, 0.0, 1.2337096956375407e-07, 0.005491173397346244, 0.29320413774510107, 0.0, 0.000995727822381501, 0.0010947194951554035, 0.0008349555391139599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0035364620243282597, 0.024855370028207997, 2.462882487065791e-05, 0.0, 0.0007986501320682199, 0.003897820035700232, 0.0033242447678506425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005309164337758403, 0.0, 0.0037334803305043166, 0.0, 0.0009121162954440484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004456997009372428, 0.0, 0.0011343189548827003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006093555707715734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008288387962318372, 0.0, 0.0007731842984295249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001807220639998988, 0.0019631516789865933, 0.028469806801957608, 0.005980465582929856, 0.002045660231324296, 0.0009530859212217363, 2.6264034221641794e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0041966821760363975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0840793045769675 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.58570956747691, "coverage": 0.9993654854936279, "baseline_score": 78.6221927649402, "spot_peer_score": 10.697666313598862, "peer_archived_score": 16.58570956747691, "baseline_archived_score": 78.6221927649402, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.697666313598862 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1685564849.829947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 337, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1685564849.829947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 337, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 834, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will there be a major Russian land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts before May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14030/another-russian-offensive-in-northern-ukraine/)\n\n---\n\nFrom the Wikipedia article [2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine&oldid=1127520037):\n\n>On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has likely resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides and caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II.\n\n>. . .\n\n>Russian attacks were initially launched on a northern front from Belarus towards Kyiv, a north-eastern front towards Kharkiv, a southern front from Crimea, and a south-eastern front from Luhansk and Donetsk. Russia's advance towards Kyiv stalled in March, with Russian troops retreating from the northern front by April. On the southern and south-eastern fronts, Russia captured Kherson in March and then Mariupol in May after a siege. On 19 April, Russia launched a renewed attack on the Donbas region, with Luhansk Oblast fully captured by 3 July. Ukrainian forces launched counteroffensives in the south in August, and in the northeast in September. In November, Ukraine retook the city of Kherson.\n\nIn December, there were reports about an upcoming Russian offensive.\n\n[The Economist: A looming Russian offensive](https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/12/15/a-looming-russian-offensive)\n\n> Russia is massing men and arms for a new offensive. As soon as January, but more likely in the spring, it could launch a big attack from Donbas in the east, from the south or even from Belarus, a puppet state in the north. Russian troops will aim to drive back Ukrainian forces and could even stage a second attempt to take Kyiv, the capital.\n\n[The Economist: An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces](https://www.economist.com/zaluzhny-transcript)\n\n> Valery Zaluzhny: Russian mobilisation has worked. It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I’ve studied the history of the two Chechen wars—it was the same. They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us. We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people… The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.\n\n[The Institute for the Study of War: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 15](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-15)\n\n> Russia may be setting conditions to conduct a new offensive against Ukraine— possibly against Kyiv—in winter 2023. Such an attack is extraordinarily unlikely to succeed.\n\n> Putin continues to pursue maximalist goals in Ukraine using multiple mechanisms intended to compel Ukrainians to negotiate on Russia’s terms and likely make preemptive concessions highly favorable to Russia.\n\nFor more information about large cities in Ukraine see the Wikipedia article [List of cities in Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Ukraine) and the map below.\n\n<img src=\"https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\" alt=\"map of Ukrainian cities with populations indicated\" />\n\n*<a href=\"https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Ukraine_with_Cities.png\">Lencer</a>, <a href=\"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0\">CC BY-SA 3.0</a>, via Wikimedia Commons*" }, { "id": 14125, "title": "Will the UK House of Lords be elected by proportional representation before 2030?", "short_title": "Proportionally elected UK House of Lords", "url_title": "Proportionally elected UK House of Lords", "slug": "proportionally-elected-uk-house-of-lords", "author_id": 105003, "author_username": "CheChe", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-16T21:08:48.128017Z", "published_at": "2022-12-25T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-11T17:44:51.811984Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-25T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-25T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14125, "title": "Will the UK House of Lords be elected by proportional representation before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-12-16T21:08:48.128017Z", "open_time": "2022-12-25T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-27T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-27T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [House of Lords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords#Membership) is the second chamber of the UK legislature which reviews bills but does not ultimately have the power to block them. The House of Lords is mainly composed of members which are appointed by the Prime Minister, though there are also hereditary members and spaces reserved for members of the clergy.\n\nThere is a long history of proposed reform to the House of Lords as well as reforms actually taking place. In recent times this has included the expulsion of most hereditary members in 1999.\n\nIn December 2022 Labour (the then Opposition party) unveiled the [Brown Report](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Commission-on-the-UKs-Future.pdf), a document commissioned by the Labour Party and headed by former PM Gordon Brown. The report included a recommendation that the House of Lords be replaced with a new second chamber. In a press conference announcing the report the current Labour leader Keir Starmer endorsed the recommendation (including all recommendations in the report) and said it would be a priority for the next Labour government, should it win the next general election. The report did not specify a preferred method for appointing the new second chamber.\n\nFor the purposes of this question proportional representation (PR) refers to a class of voting systems where the proportion of elected members of a party closely matches the national vote share that party received. There are several kinds of proportional representation, including party list PR, mixed-member PR, and single transferable vote (STV), as well as some semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, [parallel voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_voting), and [single non-transferable vote](single non-transferable vote).\n\nIn some forms of PR, such as mixed-member PR, most members are elected using first past the post and then additional members are added in a separate system (like party list PR) to achieve an overall more proportional result.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if before 2030 the members of the House of Lords are amended such that at least 15% of seats are decided based on some kind of proportional representation. The proportions to be used could be taken from election results after the Lords are reformed (e.g. in a dedicated election) or from an election that has already taken place / a Commons election (e.g. if parties may appoint a number of Lords proportional to their general election performance).\n\nProportional representation includes but is not limited to party list PR, additional member, mixed-member PR, parallel voting, and single transferable vote. Alternative vote is not included.\n\nSome proportional and semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, mixed-member PR, and parallel voting elect some seats using a non-proportional system (e.g. FPTP in single member constituencies) and others using a proportional system (e.g. party list PR). For the purposes of this question, only the seats elected using proportional representation method count toward the 15% threshold.\n\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and replaced with a different second chamber, this question will relate that that new chamber. If no such entity exists the question resolves **ambiguous**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14125, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757860538.332997, "end_time": 1760571138.504505, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.021884635677719304 ], "centers": [ 0.043522153 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757860538.332997, "end_time": 1760571138.504505, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.021884635677719304 ], "centers": [ 0.043522153 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.956477847, 0.043522153 ], "means": [ 0.061672503184421114 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6308407491715394, 1.3133876966889124, 1.2602003003301019, 1.0, 0.8243121018521602, 1.9944487550190853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5322821235250523, 0.0, 1.1028613531031426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0218749117296684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288811.826058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288811.826058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9731690910485057, 0.02683090895149435 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [House of Lords](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords#Membership) is the second chamber of the UK legislature which reviews bills but does not ultimately have the power to block them. The House of Lords is mainly composed of members which are appointed by the Prime Minister, though there are also hereditary members and spaces reserved for members of the clergy.\n\nThere is a long history of proposed reform to the House of Lords as well as reforms actually taking place. In recent times this has included the expulsion of most hereditary members in 1999.\n\nIn December 2022 Labour (the then Opposition party) unveiled the [Brown Report](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/Commission-on-the-UKs-Future.pdf), a document commissioned by the Labour Party and headed by former PM Gordon Brown. The report included a recommendation that the House of Lords be replaced with a new second chamber. In a press conference announcing the report the current Labour leader Keir Starmer endorsed the recommendation (including all recommendations in the report) and said it would be a priority for the next Labour government, should it win the next general election. The report did not specify a preferred method for appointing the new second chamber.\n\nFor the purposes of this question proportional representation (PR) refers to a class of voting systems where the proportion of elected members of a party closely matches the national vote share that party received. There are several kinds of proportional representation, including party list PR, mixed-member PR, and single transferable vote (STV), as well as some semi-proportional systems like the additional member system, [parallel voting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_voting), and [single non-transferable vote](single non-transferable vote).\n\nIn some forms of PR, such as mixed-member PR, most members are elected using first past the post and then additional members are added in a separate system (like party list PR) to achieve an overall more proportional result." }, { "id": 14062, "title": "Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?", "short_title": "TikTok Ban in US before 2024", "url_title": "TikTok Ban in US before 2024", "slug": "tiktok-ban-in-us-before-2024", "author_id": 135221, "author_username": "TheGrassGuy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-15T19:38:36.927531Z", "published_at": "2022-12-19T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.141999Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-19T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-19T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 321, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14062, "title": "Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-15T19:38:36.927531Z", "open_time": "2022-12-19T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-20T18:11:23.626184Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-20T18:11:23.626184Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4734/will-the-us-ban-tiktok-by-the-end-of-the-year/)\n\n----\n\nIn December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, credible sources indicates that the US government has taken action with the effect that a typical American cannot do all of the following:\n\n* download the TikTok mobile app from the Google Play Store (at least without some sort of technical circumvention)\n\n* similarly for the iOS App Store\n\n* use the app if it was previously downloaded (the app need not be forcibly uninstalled from users devices, only that it can no longer be supported by both the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store)\n\nThe above must be in effect before January 1, 2024 to qualify, enacting legislation that would take effect later than this date would not qualify.", "fine_print": "* Clarification issued on March 10, 2023: The line quoted below was added:\n>The above must be in effect before January 1, 2024 to qualify, enacting legislation that would take effect later than this date would not qualify.", "post_id": 14062, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704068609.202014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704068609.202014, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.019682251592916623 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.608821290114706, 14.441134957722873, 2.3417332651537928, 0.6074002319592733, 0.6490384809634906, 0.88153966280159, 1.0119629844863542, 0.00012193294000055078, 0.11838076807365898, 0.10929524182781564, 0.4039783749658818, 0.01025226630071104, 0.08625470369855098, 0.03467786175742928, 0.03512101662733498, 0.04846357387724579, 0.012923734090835715, 0.03489190305974788, 0.005521882520610158, 0.0005144601629377654, 0.40891103625410263, 0.18892271220962709, 0.029736877181497527, 9.013990450352451e-05, 0.019502113269079205, 0.11444529616373122, 0.005476868517509772, 0.0012584288302514542, 0.0021413362708667246, 0.0, 0.026273874131438547, 0.003898528946074979, 0.030101115268110705, 0.0021962810648230384, 2.221132445398084e-06, 0.019229670585450304, 0.0006562939930473194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020765795711654325, 1.729555303311363e-06, 6.981614338101365e-07, 8.5033171738966e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010502964698225876, 0.0, 0.001135202600302959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008331273456105094, 0.0028091360782318544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006781039407432192, 0.0, 0.0007177461412611218, 0.004176160660428154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01471441731859359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011996884788372773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.961410080798817e-07, 9.551580475777593e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005330424014862989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.587271154641757e-05, 0.00023008060521062081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018612467481757405 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.664298565530055, "coverage": 0.9982938429706243, "baseline_score": 77.55461147360356, "spot_peer_score": 29.722583703645263, "peer_archived_score": 11.664298565530055, "baseline_archived_score": 77.55461147360356, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.722583703645263 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704068609.250039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704068609.250039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 981, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4734/will-the-us-ban-tiktok-by-the-end-of-the-year/)\n\n----\n\nIn December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China." }, { "id": 14060, "title": "Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?", "short_title": "Lunar settlement by 2030", "url_title": "Lunar settlement by 2030", "slug": "lunar-settlement-by-2030", "author_id": 129011, "author_username": "AlexL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-15T15:02:27.845566Z", "published_at": "2022-12-15T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T22:59:04.560811Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-15T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-15T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 205, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1998, "type": "tournament", "name": "🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰", "slug": "sagan-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/space_1.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2022-11-30T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-05T20:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:06:10.949337Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1998, "type": "tournament", "name": "🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰", "slug": "sagan-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/space_1.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2022-11-30T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-05T20:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:06:10.949337Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 14060, "title": "Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-12-15T15:02:27.845566Z", "open_time": "2022-12-15T22:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-03-03T02:01:09.589200Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-03-03T02:01:09.589200Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/)\n* [When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10216/date-of-first-moon-base/)\n\n*This question makes use of the background material [this previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10216/date-of-first-moon-base/), lightly edited.*\n\n---\n\nThe first humans landed on the moon with the Apollo 11 mission on 1969. Between then and 1972, a total of 12 humans have landed on the moon, though as of December 2022, no human has landed on the Moon since.\n\nThere are however current plans for the return of humans to the Moon, e.g. the <a href=\"https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/artemis_plan-20200921.pdf\">Artemis program</a>. Even more ambitiously, there are further plans to establish a permanent presence on the Moon:\n<ul>\n<li>The Artemis project includes a <a href=\"https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2020/10/28/lunar-living-nasas-artemis-base-camp-concept/\">lunar base camp</a>.</li>\n<li>ESA has proposed the establishment of a permanent Moon Village that could encompass a wide array of of lunar activities, like 3D printed habitats, refueling stations, science, resource exploitation, or even tourism.</li>\n<li>Joseph Silk suggested to build a <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08941-8\">crewed radiotelescope installation</a> on the far side of the Moon.</li>\n<li><a href=\"about:blank\">The International Lunar Research Station</a> (ILRS) concept currently being developed in cooperation between Roscosmos and the China National Space Administration, aims to establish a long-term human presence at the lunar South Pole between 2036-2045.</li>\n<li>SpaceX plans to use its Starship spacecraft as a building block for <a href=\"https://www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/moon/index.html\">landing on the moon and maintaining a human presence</a> there.</li>\n</ul>", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if there has been at least 1 living human on the surface of Earth's Moon for 365 consecutive days before Jan 1, 2030. This does not require for the same person to remain on the Moon for this period, only that there is one or more people continuously on the Moon for the entire time. The resolution date will be at the end of this 365-day period.", "fine_print": "For this question, a \"human\" will be considered to be someone with enough genetic similarity to successfully reproduce with a typical human from 1900, with 1900-era technology to facilitate the pregnancy and birth.", "post_id": 14060, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757829762.826716, "end_time": 1759584967.523832, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757829762.826716, "end_time": 1759584967.523832, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.016359944024019597 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.07572136684016, 1.812409535490836, 0.28315853105224403, 0.03246315202982183, 0.46792121347620375, 0.2037551615426738, 0.08618151992514772, 0.00014084327281215552, 0.0026140550730305518, 0.0, 0.06957670761279036, 0.00273584131332627, 0.015339107740572608, 0.0, 0.0006031360346703764, 0.0, 4.7074980302278084e-05, 0.00555352884236747, 0.0, 0.0, 8.798608572697251e-05, 0.00016160705839086747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27051769602227604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3738524686593568e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00518984740189505, 0.001721563801118083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007722991264452858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30072833061326965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003409065805187293, 0.0, 5.650999187104954e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.125121709754941e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063664325721683734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06653512493152981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001585981970608918 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289495.915522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289495.915522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 186, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9983728120807471, 0.0016271879192529166 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 454, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/)\n* [When will a permanent human settlement stay 1 year on the Moon?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10216/date-of-first-moon-base/)\n\n*This question makes use of the background material [this previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10216/date-of-first-moon-base/), lightly edited.*\n\n---\n\nThe first humans landed on the moon with the Apollo 11 mission on 1969. Between then and 1972, a total of 12 humans have landed on the moon, though as of December 2022, no human has landed on the Moon since.\n\nThere are however current plans for the return of humans to the Moon, e.g. the <a href=\"https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/artemis_plan-20200921.pdf\">Artemis program</a>. Even more ambitiously, there are further plans to establish a permanent presence on the Moon:\n<ul>\n<li>The Artemis project includes a <a href=\"https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2020/10/28/lunar-living-nasas-artemis-base-camp-concept/\">lunar base camp</a>.</li>\n<li>ESA has proposed the establishment of a permanent Moon Village that could encompass a wide array of of lunar activities, like 3D printed habitats, refueling stations, science, resource exploitation, or even tourism.</li>\n<li>Joseph Silk suggested to build a <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08941-8\">crewed radiotelescope installation</a> on the far side of the Moon.</li>\n<li><a href=\"about:blank\">The International Lunar Research Station</a> (ILRS) concept currently being developed in cooperation between Roscosmos and the China National Space Administration, aims to establish a long-term human presence at the lunar South Pole between 2036-2045.</li>\n<li>SpaceX plans to use its Starship spacecraft as a building block for <a href=\"https://www.spacex.com/human-spaceflight/moon/index.html\">landing on the moon and maintaining a human presence</a> there.</li>\n</ul>" } ] }
