Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3540
{ "count": 5983, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3560", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3520", "results": [ { "id": 14033, "title": "Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold \"under duress\" before 2024?", "short_title": "Binance Bankruptcy or Rescue before 2024", "url_title": "Binance Bankruptcy or Rescue before 2024", "slug": "binance-bankruptcy-or-rescue-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-14T21:07:11.632461Z", "published_at": "2022-12-18T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.604530Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-18T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T16:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T16:58:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-18T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14033, "title": "Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold \"under duress\" before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-14T21:07:11.632461Z", "open_time": "2022-12-18T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-20T02:24:56.317852Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-20T02:24:56.317852Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T16:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-01T16:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-01T16:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Binance default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7235/what-is-a-counterparty-risk-of-binance/)\n\n---\n\n[Binance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binance) is a cryptocurrency exchange founded in 2017. Originally based in China, it is reportedly registered in the Cayman Islands.\n\nBinance temporarily halted trading on Tuesday, December 13, 2022, and [according to CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/14/binance-ceo-cz-deposits-coming-back-in-but-bumpy-road-ahead.html) its CEO, Changpeng Zhao (often referred to as \"CZ\"), stated in an internal memo:\n\n>While we expect the next several months to be bumpy, we will get past this challenging period – and we’ll be stronger for having been through it.\n\nIn addition to the trading halt Binance has been under a long-running investigation by the US Department of Justice which is [reportedly nearing its conclusion](https://fortune.com/crypto/2022/12/12/binance-investigation-stalls-doj-disagrees/).\n\nThe collapse of FTX has raised concerns about the broader health of crypto organizations. FTX, headquartered in the Bahamas, [filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/sam-bankman-frieds-cryptocurrency-exchange-ftx-files-for-bankruptcy.html) on November 11, 2022. Prior to filing for bankruptcy FTX was often seen as a \"lender of last resort\" and signed several deals to purchase other crypto firms or that included the option to purchase, [such as with BlockFi](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/ftx-signs-a-deal-giving-it-the-option-to-buy-crypto-lender-blockfi-.html).\n\n[According to the legal firm Norton Rose Fulbright](https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en/knowledge/publications/8ef0322b/proposed-legislation-may-trip-up-international-bankruptcy-filings-in-the-united-states), foreign companies often seek US bankruptcy protection due to favorable conditions and a low threshold for eligibility:\n\n>A large driver of the US Bankruptcy Courts’ popularity has been ease of access. The statutes that define the parameters of who can be a Chapter 11 debtor, and what court may oversee the restructuring, are extremely broad. Any entity that is domiciled in the US, has a place of business in the US, or has property in the US, may avail itself of Chapter 11. See 11 U.S.C. § 109. A debtor further may file its petition in any venue where it is domiciled (i.e. incorporated), where its principal place of business in the US is located, where its principal assets in the US are located, or in any venue where any of its affiliates can file. See 28 U.S.C. § 1408. In contrast to other countries, the debtor need not be a domestic company to file for bankruptcy in the US Importantly, no threshold or minimum amount of assets located in the US is required to qualify. In fact, courts have considered bank accounts, attorney retainers, and even causes of action owned by a foreign debtor as property in the US for purposes of eligibility. This has allowed many international companies to restructure their debts in the US even though they hold very little assets in the US.\n\nAlso see a [supporting analysis by the legal firm Skadden](https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2021/06/quarterly-insights/international-companies-turn-to-us-restructurings). FTX's US filing has produced a [jurisdictional dispute](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/11/16/bahamian-liquidators-say-ftx-wasnt-authorized-to-file-for-bankruptcy-in-the-us/) with regulators in the Bahamas.\n\n***Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold \"under duress\" before January 1, 2024?***\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, Binance or any of its subsidiaries have filed for bankruptcy or a similar filing of insolvency in any jurisdiction **OR** Binance has signed a deal to be purchased by or the option to be purchased by another organization, which has been characterized as a bail out, a rescue, or in response to liquidity trouble by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Resolution will be determined according to information publicly available on or before February 1, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a filing similar to bankruptcy will be said to have occurred if Binance or any of its subsidiaries have filed under the insolvency law of any jurisdiction, for example [liquidation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquidation), [administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Administration_(law)), or [winding up](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayman_Islands_bankruptcy_law#Winding_up_of_companies). These examples are not exhaustive, and any insolvency related filing in any jurisdiction considered, in the judgment of Metaculus, to be broadly similar will be sufficient.\n\n[fine-print]\nThe purchase or option to purchase by another organization on its own will not be sufficient, the purchase or option to purchase must be characterized by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) as in response to liquidity or other problems as described.\n[/fine-print]", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14033, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076912.896367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076912.896367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.10962715856792565 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3574255514692344, 3.5005534337539417, 0.45933616987120557, 0.9479509993067093, 0.12315707662122813, 1.0673674755961478, 2.333217866782115, 0.6832930013687624, 0.6140505797516964, 0.0, 1.2602876289186316, 0.0, 0.5290414525113261, 0.0, 0.17112408784746214, 0.02511446371890115, 0.001992124026460697, 0.23762039181464137, 0.3215441986439308, 0.0, 1.511111439818007, 0.0, 0.0003468500661995196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16496399697674705, 0.10652206937693963, 0.06907049790903583, 0.011312442712237657, 0.0, 0.061814192272096224, 0.07438495788704376, 0.04489019213305555, 0.0, 0.08606707977615563, 0.55080824596953, 0.2874523772058045, 0.0, 0.008562292257910257, 0.12348667246257002, 0.0006230825651377918, 0.010203749825154337, 0.001188479870048893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031033278471984875, 0.07801869231193595, 0.0, 0.01675047107011314, 0.028728097596559032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022921926586655966, 0.02016905167772199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34156828744389534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03128077033446885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004766249178816012 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.907138850227971, "coverage": 0.9999978451647494, "baseline_score": 53.551887299684154, "spot_peer_score": 47.60014108838997, "peer_archived_score": 13.907138850227971, "baseline_archived_score": 53.551887299684154, "spot_peer_archived_score": 47.60014108838997 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704076912.923071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704076912.923071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9955485325254905, 0.0044514674745095364 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 315, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 14032, "title": "In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?", "short_title": "2023 War Casualties vs. Russia/Ukraine", "url_title": "2023 War Casualties vs. Russia/Ukraine", "slug": "2023-war-casualties-vs-russiaukraine", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-14T19:38:35.614746Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.951564Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-05T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-05T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 226, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14032, "title": "In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?", "created_at": "2022-12-14T19:38:35.614746Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-05T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-05T02:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-05T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\r\n\r\n>We will judge casualties for the Ukraine war based on the sum of the UN estimate of civilian deaths + injuries, plus each side's report of the other side's deaths + injuries. See eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#Field_casualties_and_injuries . We reserve the right to change this if one side starts giving implausible numbers. When a range is offered, the midpoint of the range will be taken. If there is no easy way to determine which Ukraine casualties happened in 2022 vs. 2023, the current total of 225,216 will be subtracted from the best available end-of-2023 number. The casualty numbers for other wars will be calculated in a method as similar to this as possible; if an identical methodology cannot be used, we reserve the right to use credible third-party (eg US government, well-known neutral media outlet) estimates. \r\n\r\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\r\n\r\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14032, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704031205.084328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704031205.084328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 226, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.01164682075646743 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.101865485382127, 11.894518577203412, 1.5794337203318607, 0.7162059999662911, 0.45018923273564315, 0.10983407178713525, 0.014388011248866173, 0.014291789136614774, 0.1228050560684862, 0.0020263168123779676, 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More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14031, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703963239.926592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703963239.926592, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9850837616951946 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.001697630894920241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033099782183814943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-15T01:58:52.663417Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-15T01:58:52.663417Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-06-30T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-30T13:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-06-30T13:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There is currently a growing security competition in Northeast Asia, with Japan seeking to boost its defense capabilities amid increasing threats from China and North Korea. \n\nThe Tomahawk cruise missile is a long-range, all-weather, subsonic cruise missile that can be launched from a variety of platforms, including ships, submarines, and land-based systems. It is designed to attack a variety of targets, including ships, ground vehicles, and buildings. The missile has a range of over 1,000 miles, making it capable of hitting targets on mainland China from peripheral regions of Japan.\n\n[Japan is considering purchasing hundreds of U.S.-built Tomahawk cruise missiles as part of a major defense buildup,](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/12/japan-tomahawk-missiles-ukraine-war/) marking a significant break with its long-standing tradition of avoiding offensive weapons. The move comes as China undergoes a military modernization and North Korea continues its nuclear program. Japan is also set to unveil its new national security and defense strategies this month, along with a major increase in defense spending. These moves may indicate, as well as contribute to, increased tensions in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region.\n\nArticle 9 of the Japanese Constitution renounces war as a means of settling international disputes and prohibits Japan from maintaining land, sea, and air forces. However, a 2014 reinterpretation of the constitution allowed for military action in the event an ally is attacked. The purchase of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which would previously have been considered offensive weapons, would mark a significant break with Japan's long-standing tradition of avoiding such weapons and could have significant political implications.", "resolution_criteria": "Metaculus admins will resolve this question as **Yes** or **No** according to credible published sources and the self-reports of the Japan Self-Defense Forces, the Japan Defense Agency, and the Japanese government.\n\nTested means a full, integrated flight test in which a Tomahawk missile is launched, navigates towards a target, and hits it", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14025, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757521216.650396, "end_time": 1758900546.205115, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757521216.650396, "end_time": 1758900546.205115, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7324429498998553 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.9223139665550486, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.23435641334649077, 0.0, 0.45230708713752654, 0.4770563933391733, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 2.197651504012539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.5342541811581952, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290219.095832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290219.095832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.25111003701339596, 0.748889962986604 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 118, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There is currently a growing security competition in Northeast Asia, with Japan seeking to boost its defense capabilities amid increasing threats from China and North Korea. \n\nThe Tomahawk cruise missile is a long-range, all-weather, subsonic cruise missile that can be launched from a variety of platforms, including ships, submarines, and land-based systems. It is designed to attack a variety of targets, including ships, ground vehicles, and buildings. The missile has a range of over 1,000 miles, making it capable of hitting targets on mainland China from peripheral regions of Japan.\n\n[Japan is considering purchasing hundreds of U.S.-built Tomahawk cruise missiles as part of a major defense buildup,](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/12/japan-tomahawk-missiles-ukraine-war/) marking a significant break with its long-standing tradition of avoiding offensive weapons. The move comes as China undergoes a military modernization and North Korea continues its nuclear program. Japan is also set to unveil its new national security and defense strategies this month, along with a major increase in defense spending. These moves may indicate, as well as contribute to, increased tensions in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region.\n\nArticle 9 of the Japanese Constitution renounces war as a means of settling international disputes and prohibits Japan from maintaining land, sea, and air forces. However, a 2014 reinterpretation of the constitution allowed for military action in the event an ally is attacked. The purchase of Tomahawk cruise missiles, which would previously have been considered offensive weapons, would mark a significant break with Japan's long-standing tradition of avoiding such weapons and could have significant political implications." }, { "id": 14022, "title": "Will backpropagation take a back seat by 2030?", "short_title": "Backpropagation taking a back seat by 2030", "url_title": "Backpropagation taking a back seat by 2030", "slug": "backpropagation-taking-a-back-seat-by-2030", "author_id": 118245, "author_username": "peter_m", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-13T18:00:26.485943Z", "published_at": "2022-12-26T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.963501Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-26T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, 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2030?", "created_at": "2022-12-13T18:00:26.485943Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-28T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Backpropagation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backpropagation) is a widely used method of efficiently computing gradients of functions with many inputs and few outputs and hence particularly popular for modern machine learning techniques like neural networks. It can be seen as applying the chain rule \"from outside to inside\". \nIt is generalised by [Automatic Differentiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_differentiation) which imposes no such restriction on the order in which to apply the chain rule. Choosing this order appropriately may lead to an additional speed-up.\n\nAt NeurIPS 2022 Geoffrey Hinton presented the [forward-forward algorithm](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~hinton/FFA13.pdf), an alternative to backpropagation and automatic differentiation more generally. While it does not seem to yield competitive results just yet, one might wonder about more research in this direction.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point from January 1, 2023 to January 1, 2030, over 50% of machine learning frameworks (each framework is weighted by its relative usage as elicited from [paperswithcode.com/trends](https://paperswithcode.com/trends) or whatever we deem to be the closest alternative if it doesn't exist anymore) use something other than backpropagation or automatic differentiation.", "fine_print": "If it is not obvious whether a framework \"uses\" backpropagation or automatic differentiation—e.g. because multiple methods are implemented or it is abstracted away in the code—we look at the \"Getting Started\" section or something equivalent on their website and see whether the first \"reasonable\" example (no `print(\"Hello world!\")`) listed there uses backpropagation or automatic differentiation under the hood. If no such page/example exists, this will be up to the discretion of moderators, but should involve checking the source code or reaching out to developers.\n\nNote that automatic differentiation is included because this question is not supposed to resolve positively due to some minor local modifications in the order of differentiation which, technically, is not backpropagation anymore. Moreover, we use paperswithcode.com to track progress in machine learning instead of just neural networks in case neural networks are replaced by a different approach, but backpropagation remains the best option for neural networks.", "post_id": 14022, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1747304447.42118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.339 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1747304447.42118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.339 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.661, 0.339 ], "means": [ 0.30350327666021276 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 1.0678527230704027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.9355426033024239, 0.0, 0.8604205877116331, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4334704552377493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289036.756146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289036.756146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8034017354287101, 0.19659826457128993 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Backpropagation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backpropagation) is a widely used method of efficiently computing gradients of functions with many inputs and few outputs and hence particularly popular for modern machine learning techniques like neural networks. It can be seen as applying the chain rule \"from outside to inside\". \nIt is generalised by [Automatic Differentiation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_differentiation) which imposes no such restriction on the order in which to apply the chain rule. Choosing this order appropriately may lead to an additional speed-up.\n\nAt NeurIPS 2022 Geoffrey Hinton presented the [forward-forward algorithm](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~hinton/FFA13.pdf), an alternative to backpropagation and automatic differentiation more generally. While it does not seem to yield competitive results just yet, one might wonder about more research in this direction." }, { "id": 14021, "title": "Will agriculture, forestry, and fishing add at least 5% of value to world GDP before 2030?", "short_title": "Agriculture at Least 5% of World GDP by 2030", "url_title": "Agriculture at Least 5% of World GDP by 2030", "slug": "agriculture-at-least-5-of-world-gdp-by-2030", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-13T17:02:54.906515Z", "published_at": "2023-01-20T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.626040Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-01-20T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-06-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-01-20T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 14021, "title": "Will agriculture, forestry, and fishing add at least 5% of value to world GDP before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-12-13T17:02:54.906515Z", "open_time": "2023-01-20T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-22T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-22T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-06-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-06-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Over the past few decades, there has been a trend of decreasing fraction of value added by the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries to global GDP. This trend is largely due to the increasing industrialization and modernization of many economies, which has led to a shift away from these traditional sectors and towards industries such as manufacturing, services, and technology.\n\nBased on the data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS) as of January 2023, there has been a small trend reversal since the bottom of 3.2% in 2006, to a final value of 4.3% in 2021, still down a lot from a recorded high of 10.6% in 1968.\n\n| Year | % of valued added (% of GDP) |\n|------|-----------------------------|\n| 1971 | 9.3 |\n| 1981 | 7 |\n| 1991 | 4.6 |\n| 2001 | 3.4 |\n| 2011 | 4 |\n| 2021 | 4.3 |\n\nWithin the latest data, there has been substantial heterogeneity between countries of varying income levels. Changes in long-term trends may thus, at least in part, be understood as by varying levels of global GDP being represented by different income levels. \n\n| Income Group | valued added (% of GDP) |\n| --- | --- |\n| Low income | 25.6 |\n| Lower middle income | 15.4 |\n| Low & middle income | 9.1 |\n| Middle income | 8.8 |\n| Upper middle income | 6.7 |\n| High income | 1.3 |\n\n\nSome of these trends may also be explained by agricultural productivity growth. This is highlighted by a 2018 [Global Food Security](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912418300014) paper:\n\n>World-wide, agricultural output grew at an average annual rate of 2.54% during 2001–2014, faster than the 1961–2014 average rate of 2.24%.\n\n>United Nations data show declining use of land and employment in agriculture.\n\n>This has led to accelerated growth in productivity of these factors.\n\n>Declining growth rates in harvested yield have been offset by increased cropping intensity.\n\nHowever, a 2021 [Nature Climate Change](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01000-1) paper investigated the impact of climate change on global agricultural productivity growth, finding that anthropogenic climate change “has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth.” This may add further risks in the near and medium term that may not have been accounted for in some previous analyses.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS\" width='100%25' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the value added (as a percent of world GDP) of agriculture, forestry, and fishing, is 5% or above for any one year after 2021 and prior to 2030, this question resolves as **Yes**. Resolution will be based on the first available data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS). Later changes or revisions after the question has resolved will be irrelevant to this question.", "fine_print": "* The number rounded to one decimal place, as shown in the chart, will be used and not the unrounded number from the underlying data download.\n* According to the World Bank methodology: Value added is the net output of a sector after adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources.\n* The time-lag in resolve date (currently set to January 1, 2032) is due to the possibility that data may not be made available within one year. If the World Bank stops publishing this data in a timely manner Metaculus may use an alternate resolution source or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 14021, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755519856.974768, "end_time": 1759011206.226357, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755519856.974768, "end_time": 1759011206.226357, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.2743789617536305 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.746552312116484, 1.1320367568222791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287783.132671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287783.132671, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8440528783439966, 0.1559471216560034 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Over the past few decades, there has been a trend of decreasing fraction of value added by the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries to global GDP. This trend is largely due to the increasing industrialization and modernization of many economies, which has led to a shift away from these traditional sectors and towards industries such as manufacturing, services, and technology.\n\nBased on the data from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS) as of January 2023, there has been a small trend reversal since the bottom of 3.2% in 2006, to a final value of 4.3% in 2021, still down a lot from a recorded high of 10.6% in 1968.\n\n| Year | % of valued added (% of GDP) |\n|------|-----------------------------|\n| 1971 | 9.3 |\n| 1981 | 7 |\n| 1991 | 4.6 |\n| 2001 | 3.4 |\n| 2011 | 4 |\n| 2021 | 4.3 |\n\nWithin the latest data, there has been substantial heterogeneity between countries of varying income levels. Changes in long-term trends may thus, at least in part, be understood as by varying levels of global GDP being represented by different income levels. \n\n| Income Group | valued added (% of GDP) |\n| --- | --- |\n| Low income | 25.6 |\n| Lower middle income | 15.4 |\n| Low & middle income | 9.1 |\n| Middle income | 8.8 |\n| Upper middle income | 6.7 |\n| High income | 1.3 |\n\n\nSome of these trends may also be explained by agricultural productivity growth. This is highlighted by a 2018 [Global Food Security](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912418300014) paper:\n\n>World-wide, agricultural output grew at an average annual rate of 2.54% during 2001–2014, faster than the 1961–2014 average rate of 2.24%.\n\n>United Nations data show declining use of land and employment in agriculture.\n\n>This has led to accelerated growth in productivity of these factors.\n\n>Declining growth rates in harvested yield have been offset by increased cropping intensity.\n\nHowever, a 2021 [Nature Climate Change](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01000-1) paper investigated the impact of climate change on global agricultural productivity growth, finding that anthropogenic climate change “has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 7 years of productivity growth.” This may add further risks in the near and medium term that may not have been accounted for in some previous analyses.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://data.worldbank.org/share/widget?indicators=NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS\" width='100%25' height='500' frameBorder='0' scrolling=\"no\" ></iframe>" }, { "id": 14012, "title": "Will Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen play more than 1 move (2 ply) in one or more games against each other in the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship 2022?", "short_title": "Hans Niemann vs Magnus Carlsen, Dec 2022", "url_title": "Hans Niemann vs Magnus Carlsen, Dec 2022", "slug": "hans-niemann-vs-magnus-carlsen-dec-2022", "author_id": 112062, "author_username": "dschwarz", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-13T01:33:28.051458Z", "published_at": "2022-12-23T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.973506Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-23T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-30T08:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-31T01:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"2022-12-31T01:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-30T08:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship, https://www.fide.com/calendar/52524, in 2022 running from Dec 25 - Dec 30, is a prestigious yearly tournament run by FIDE, the main organizing body of chess. In 2021 World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen [won the Rapid section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Rapid_Chess_Championship#Editions_and_medallists) (15 minute games) with runner up Ian Nepomniachtchi and Alireza Firouzja [won the Blitz section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Blitz_Chess_Championship#Editions_and_medallists_2) (5 minute games) with runner up Jan-Krzysztof Duda.\n\nOn September 4, 2022, Magnus Carlsen lost a classical game to Grandmaster Hans Niemann and withdrew from that tournament, later accusing Hans of cheating in chess more often than Hans had publicly admitted. On September 19, in an online cup, Magnus then resigned a game against Hans after one move. On 20 October 2022, Niemann filed a federal lawsuit in Missouri against Carlsen, his company Play Magnus Group, Chess.com, and other notable chess personalities Danny Rensch, and Hikaru Nakamura. More at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy.\n\nMagnus and Hans have signed up to play in both the Rapid and Blitz portions of the upcoming tournament. They may get paired. Will they get paired, and play a game with more than one move apiece? Or will they not play, because (1) one of them withdraws from the tournaments, (2) they do not get paired in either tournament, or (3) one of them resigns any paired game with the other before playing two or more moves?", "resolution_criteria": "Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen play more than 1 move (2 ply) in one or more games against each other in the World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship 2022", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 14012, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672400976.7756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.21677630974722567 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672400976.7756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.21677630974722567 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7832236902527743, 0.21677630974722567 ], "means": [ 0.21026291169009773 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7168727180335508, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5957923460218653, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0630433923324438, 1.1025292908669395, 0.0, 0.6407103357440366, 0.0, 1.266120265882265, 0.07804183443061195, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.7050491693782512, "coverage": 0.8920000970295012, "baseline_score": 41.41535298083993, "spot_peer_score": 25.23253270354389, "peer_archived_score": 3.7050491693782512, "baseline_archived_score": 41.41535298083993, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.23253270354389 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1672385605.367716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1672385605.367716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9166487570618618, 0.08335124293813817 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The World Rapid and Blitz Chess Championship, https://www.fide.com/calendar/52524, in 2022 running from Dec 25 - Dec 30, is a prestigious yearly tournament run by FIDE, the main organizing body of chess. In 2021 World Chess Champion Magnus Carlsen [won the Rapid section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Rapid_Chess_Championship#Editions_and_medallists) (15 minute games) with runner up Ian Nepomniachtchi and Alireza Firouzja [won the Blitz section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Blitz_Chess_Championship#Editions_and_medallists_2) (5 minute games) with runner up Jan-Krzysztof Duda.\n\nOn September 4, 2022, Magnus Carlsen lost a classical game to Grandmaster Hans Niemann and withdrew from that tournament, later accusing Hans of cheating in chess more often than Hans had publicly admitted. On September 19, in an online cup, Magnus then resigned a game against Hans after one move. On 20 October 2022, Niemann filed a federal lawsuit in Missouri against Carlsen, his company Play Magnus Group, Chess.com, and other notable chess personalities Danny Rensch, and Hikaru Nakamura. More at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy.\n\nMagnus and Hans have signed up to play in both the Rapid and Blitz portions of the upcoming tournament. They may get paired. Will they get paired, and play a game with more than one move apiece? Or will they not play, because (1) one of them withdraws from the tournaments, (2) they do not get paired in either tournament, or (3) one of them resigns any paired game with the other before playing two or more moves?" }, { "id": 13994, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?", "short_title": "DeSantis Nomination According to Markets", "url_title": "DeSantis Nomination According to Markets", "slug": "desantis-nomination-according-to-markets", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-11T05:26:25.879541Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.999321Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>We will use Polymarket to resolve these questions looking at 00:01 Jan 1st 2024. If Polymarket stops existing or by our judgment is no longer credible, we will use whichever Manifold market on the question has the most traders. If neither Polymarket nor Manifold exist and are credible, we will use our judgment to select an alternative source.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13994, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704043261.331486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704043261.331486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 144, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.010719646640494298 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.192046736025318, 6.4922167376016855, 0.601676458514836, 0.0, 0.0445204972862971, 0.30692947740374793, 0.19091641448600924, 0.016147466317471694, 0.0, 0.16326464406554175, 0.07819766230331264, 0.0, 0.024913107983138373, 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"description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will China end Zero-COVID?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13767/chinese-cessation-of-zero-covid-policy/)\n* [When will China first reach 250,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases per day?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10936/china-to-reach-250k-covid-cases-per-day/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>Based on https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. 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"created_at": "2022-12-11T03:41:50.451339Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T07:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12569/crimean-bridge-knocked-out-by-2024/)\n* [Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n> As long as any vehicle (except, like, airplanes) can pass over the bridge, it does not count as destroyed. If the bridge is destroyed but successfully repaired before 1/1/24 so that vehicles can cross it again, it does not count as destroyed.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13989, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056710.060555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056710.060555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.016820199915457915 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.64604257269679, 11.110104018162586, 1.731271331521455, 0.325167850421309, 0.0002900342201524143, 0.18682361368392256, 0.1841771198687726, 0.15138960541228208, 0.03398047023299072, 0.01805585967706622, 0.06459648141853566, 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"forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 624, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12569/crimean-bridge-knocked-out-by-2024/)\n* [Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 13988, "title": "In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?", "short_title": "Nuclear Incident in Ukraine By 2024", "url_title": "Nuclear Incident in Ukraine By 2024", "slug": "nuclear-incident-in-ukraine-by-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-11T03:10:22.063704Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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"header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13988, "title": "In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine 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"*Related questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will any state leave NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8546/withdrawal-from-nato-by-2024/)\n* [How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10643/nato-member-states-in-2025/)\n* [Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8549/new-nato-member-by-2024/)\n* [Will Finland join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10085/finland-to-join-nato-by-2024/)\n* [Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/)\n* [Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12733/ukraine-joins-nato-before-2024/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 13985, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?", "short_title": "Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?", "url_title": "Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?", "slug": "bilateral-ceasefire-in-ukraine-before-2024", "author_id": 134915, "author_username": "Firenze", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-10T20:06:17.920236Z", "published_at": "2022-12-13T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.021397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-13T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 161, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-13T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 455, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has likely resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides and caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II. \n\nPeace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place on February 28, March 3, and March 7, 2022, on the Belarus–Ukraine border, with further talks held on March 10 in Turkey prior to a fourth round of negotiations which began on March 14. The Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on July 13 [that peace talks are frozen for the time being](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-rules-out-ceding-territory-russia-secure-peace-2022-07-13/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between December 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as **No** if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by 2024.\n\nThe ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13985, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704224244.222552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 458, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704224244.222552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 458, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.009221123900691576 ], "histogram": [ [ 25.810608686799394, 13.267656504790377, 0.7622355141851911, 0.08059344581686159, 0.13796133100886104, 0.5652126142255931, 0.04109532751290808, 0.011671796890186895, 0.007133321088845122, 0.005963403147657901, 0.07166773974567733, 0.00013535309854554765, 0.026496317980361166, 0.07048384236492371, 0.0037386735512310396, 0.03043691579995262, 0.0001195689121395205, 0.01962900822876666, 0.008585591748678545, 0.16466416821564858, 0.01929365307677447, 3.481696348896859e-05, 1.0641060342949064e-05, 1.6561942173055705e-05, 0.0012176854764385184, 0.007318503103419848, 0.005398923512300599, 0.006740198282189742, 0.10356546758630837, 0.0, 0.0018933650015126489, 7.198123846196609e-05, 1.4476813528730845e-05, 0.0001521081526869083, 0.0, 3.4504895684246342e-06, 1.7594933062765843e-05, 5.708492920814476e-06, 3.577268842938259e-07, 1.1185026888654722e-05, 0.00785671221392941, 0.0, 3.8590099951353014e-07, 2.973066735872367e-06, 4.4454546176344766e-08, 5.434846145370129e-05, 4.7470057373603445e-05, 4.659300635012044e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 7.933383139647872e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5310765658481315e-05, 0.0, 2.2357968872622517e-06, 3.2855707670412097e-06, 5.4450430932288945e-06, 0.0, 9.650362961134658e-07, 0.00019652897143770996, 4.160766886178492e-05, 2.7724909746324637e-08, 0.0, 1.8688017692533883e-08, 0.0, 6.021928269488003e-06, 1.3536660719414279e-05, 8.615694524064766e-05, 0.0, 0.06294115125786548, 1.011552058109728e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8837055516849946e-07, 3.981260021050728e-05, 0.00014611311600783256, 0.0, 0.0, 8.320860695928083e-08, 1.9110343859492724e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3998582412928626e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037659833165293256 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.75461124818085, "coverage": 0.92519892609176, "baseline_score": 72.55534104817433, "spot_peer_score": 31.053173572233003, "peer_archived_score": 18.75461124818085, "baseline_archived_score": 72.55534104817433, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.053173572233003 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703635290.266327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 454, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703635290.266327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 454, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 33, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1396, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. 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The Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba stated on July 13 [that peace talks are frozen for the time being](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-rules-out-ceding-territory-russia-secure-peace-2022-07-13/)." }, { "id": 13981, "title": "Will Environment and Climate Change Canada register a white Christmas – snow on the ground on December 25th – for Toronto?", "short_title": "Toronto \"white Christmas\"", "url_title": "Toronto \"white Christmas\"", "slug": "toronto-white-christmas", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-10T06:59:52.202152Z", "published_at": "2022-12-10T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.656993Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-10T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-24T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-24T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-25T17:00:00Z", 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"resolution_set_time": "2022-12-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-24T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-24T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Toronto is the largest city in Canada at around 6 to 10 million people, depending how the figure is counted.\n\n\"Despite being cold,\" [notes Wikipedia,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Toronto#Winter_and_snowfall)\n\n> extended snow-free periods occur in most winter seasons and precipitation can fall as rain .... Average winter snowfall is 121.5 cm (47.83 in) at the weather station in Downtown Toronto and 108.5 cm (42.72 in) at [YYZ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Pearson_International_Airport).\n\nEnvironment and Climate Change Canada is Canada’s official weather and climate source. Tweets by @environmentca meteorologists are available at https://twitter.com/ECCCWeatherON and en français [@ECCCMeteoON](https://twitter.com/ecccmeteoon).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolves **Yes** if by year's end, some Environment and Climate Change Canada official statement, including a Tweet by an affiliated account, indicates that anywhere in the Greater Toronto Area has experienced any of:\n\n* a \"white Christmas\" \n\n* [snow on the ground of 2 cm or more on Christmas morning at 7 a.m. EST](https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/weather-general-tools-resources/historical-christmas-snowfall-data.html#label1)\n\nIf no unambiguous indication occurs by ECCC the question will resolve **No**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671916057.418603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6968537645135691 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671916057.418603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6968537645135691 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7793535772129663 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08368122008485587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.41805183898773424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0598617310603975, 0.0216015677189824, 0.07369964090399271, 0.5189260397995925, 0.040271492127277986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09464378440008571, 0.4502934691181362, 0.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.4387232613217865, 0.1341757537316506, 0.0, 0.04225147949949812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20561265148349345, 0.5685529016609817, 0.0, 0.3965752739790264, 0.7288213086725668, 1.2603325595235266, 0.0, 1.1938327340865411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9253192545386865, 0.3343470039728833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2274691399399458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.221989172829317, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0362084399969116 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.835610270785706, "coverage": 0.999980896377256, "baseline_score": 21.476847850804866, "spot_peer_score": 6.082091586008295, "peer_archived_score": 5.835610270785706, "baseline_archived_score": 21.476847850804866, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.082091586008295 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671916057.435442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671916057.435442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.27345375703557917, 0.7265462429644208 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 118, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Toronto is the largest city in Canada at around 6 to 10 million people, depending how the figure is counted.\n\n\"Despite being cold,\" [notes Wikipedia,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Toronto#Winter_and_snowfall)\n\n> extended snow-free periods occur in most winter seasons and precipitation can fall as rain .... Average winter snowfall is 121.5 cm (47.83 in) at the weather station in Downtown Toronto and 108.5 cm (42.72 in) at [YYZ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_Pearson_International_Airport).\n\nEnvironment and Climate Change Canada is Canada’s official weather and climate source. Tweets by @environmentca meteorologists are available at https://twitter.com/ECCCWeatherON and en français [@ECCCMeteoON](https://twitter.com/ecccmeteoon)." }, { "id": 13959, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?", "short_title": "Ukraine/Russia State of War on Jan 1, 2024", "url_title": "Ukraine/Russia State of War on Jan 1, 2024", "slug": "ukrainerussia-state-of-war-on-jan-1-2024", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-10T03:15:48.232748Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.970139Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 190, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13959, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?", "created_at": "2022-12-10T03:15:48.232748Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time. Minor violations won’t count against this as long as both sides and the international media agree it is still substantially in effect. An informal cease-fire will count if it involves at least one month without significant military action and the international media dubs it a de facto cease fire. A cease-fire which is signed but then substantially broken before 1/1/24 will not count. \n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13959, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704053648.212095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704053648.212095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.008150153471772816 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.005874640971495, 8.971994156621443, 0.3451713033987943, 0.1987925858520146, 0.02205467453056858, 0.028257233810102658, 0.004438456994278857, 0.00029539577145877306, 0.05396232434381837, 0.194870588367139, 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"2022-12-22T03:05:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13939, "title": "Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?", "created_at": "2022-12-09T06:17:34.068098Z", "open_time": "2022-12-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-12T20:05:44.816028Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-12T20:05:44.816028Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-01-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-22T03:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-22T03:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-01-09T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-22T03:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Samuel Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried), born March 6, 1992, is a Bahamas-based American [former billionaire](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/ftx-ceo-sam-bankman-fried-lost-billionaire-status-filed-bankruptcy.html) entrepreneur and business executive who was the founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX until it [filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in November 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_of_FTX) amid a liquidity crisis. \n\nSince the company's collapse, [allegations of serious mismanagement](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ftx-bankruptcy-john-ray-ceo-failure/) have been made against Bankman-Fried, and [media reports](https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-investigates-crypto-platform-ftx-11668020379) indicate that multiple civil and [criminal investigations](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/crypto/sbf-and-ftx-face-criminal-investigation-heres-what-has-happened-so-far-8276379/) are ongoing in the United States.\n\nAs of 9 December 2022, no charges are known to have been filed against any person in connection with the collapse of FTX. Bankman-Fried has [stated](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3912755-ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-i-never-tried-to-commit-fraud), among other things:\n\n>\"I made a lot of mistakes, but I never tried to commit fraud.\"\n\nBankman-Fried has been [invited to testify](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/ftx-maxine-waters-doesnt-plan-to-subpoena-sam-bankman-fried-to-testify-at-hearing-on-crypto-exchanges-collapse.html) before the United States House Committee on Financial Services on December 13, but has yet to definitively indicate whether he will attend. \n\nOn December 4, Bankman-Fried [tweeted](https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1599511560384225281):\n\n>Once I have finished learning and reviewing what happened, I would feel like it was my duty to appear before the committee and explain. I'm not sure that will happen by the 13th. But when it does, I will testify.\n\nHowever, the Senate Committee on Banking is also seeking testimony from Bankman-Fried, and its leadership has [indicated that it is prepared to subpoena Bankman-Fried](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/08/senate-committee-to-subpoena-ftxs-sam-bankman-fried-if-he-does-not-testify/) if he will not appear before the Committee voluntarily on December 14.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if after December 8, 2022, and prior to February 1, 2023, Sam Bankman-Fried is alive and physically located on land in sovereign territory of the United States for any amount of time. This includes land in any of the 50 states, Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, or any of the United States Minor Outlying Islands. Overflight of any of these territories without landing there does not count; nor does passing through U.S. territorial waters without disembarking on U.S. land. The question resolves as **No** if this does not occur for any reason, including if Bankman-Fried is incarcerated or incapacitated elsewhere in the world, or if he is no longer alive.", "fine_print": "To be \"physically located\" on US soil, Bankman-Fried must be there in person; telepresence of any kind, whether by video link, use of a robotic avatar, or any other method of distance communication, will not count. A US embassy, consulate, or other type of diplomatic mission does not count as U.S. soil.", "post_id": 13939, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671716669.566422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9866943646689075 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671716669.566422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9866943646689075 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9742137547636512 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0404697691408491, 0.0, 0.0006357209650978351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004201224307447123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009543845697788052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030700947389787302, 0.03736667972587818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11863433074219568, 0.0, 0.10887815532154052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05733267323233916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18197306897364698, 0.17704471272612737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06235169715667622, 0.04424069828384508, 0.11197781440287247, 0.0, 0.02073390695131329, 0.0, 0.06629408168376588, 0.2932384589229603, 0.14503130522971458, 1.3314232044895808, 1.8059623760592634, 11.410616002032032 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.3175005434515996, "coverage": 0.37394173534033526, "baseline_score": 29.16366023093028, "spot_peer_score": 33.211688226683506, "peer_archived_score": 3.3175005434515996, "baseline_archived_score": 29.16366023093028, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.211688226683506 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1671678223.236389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1671678223.236389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03713948723905758, 0.9628605127609424 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 174, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Samuel Bankman-Fried](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Bankman-Fried), born March 6, 1992, is a Bahamas-based American [former billionaire](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/11/ftx-ceo-sam-bankman-fried-lost-billionaire-status-filed-bankruptcy.html) entrepreneur and business executive who was the founder and CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX until it [filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in November 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bankruptcy_of_FTX) amid a liquidity crisis. \n\nSince the company's collapse, [allegations of serious mismanagement](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ftx-bankruptcy-john-ray-ceo-failure/) have been made against Bankman-Fried, and [media reports](https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-investigates-crypto-platform-ftx-11668020379) indicate that multiple civil and [criminal investigations](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/crypto/sbf-and-ftx-face-criminal-investigation-heres-what-has-happened-so-far-8276379/) are ongoing in the United States.\n\nAs of 9 December 2022, no charges are known to have been filed against any person in connection with the collapse of FTX. Bankman-Fried has [stated](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3912755-ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-i-never-tried-to-commit-fraud), among other things:\n\n>\"I made a lot of mistakes, but I never tried to commit fraud.\"\n\nBankman-Fried has been [invited to testify](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/07/ftx-maxine-waters-doesnt-plan-to-subpoena-sam-bankman-fried-to-testify-at-hearing-on-crypto-exchanges-collapse.html) before the United States House Committee on Financial Services on December 13, but has yet to definitively indicate whether he will attend. \n\nOn December 4, Bankman-Fried [tweeted](https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1599511560384225281):\n\n>Once I have finished learning and reviewing what happened, I would feel like it was my duty to appear before the committee and explain. I'm not sure that will happen by the 13th. But when it does, I will testify.\n\nHowever, the Senate Committee on Banking is also seeking testimony from Bankman-Fried, and its leadership has [indicated that it is prepared to subpoena Bankman-Fried](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/08/senate-committee-to-subpoena-ftxs-sam-bankman-fried-if-he-does-not-testify/) if he will not appear before the Committee voluntarily on December 14." }, { "id": 13938, "title": "In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?", "short_title": "Chinese Invasion of Taiwan in 2023", "url_title": "Chinese Invasion of Taiwan in 2023", "slug": "chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-in-2023", "author_id": 104161, "author_username": "casens", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-09T03:33:27.643445Z", "published_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.581825Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13933, "title": "In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?", "created_at": "2022-12-09T02:50:41.221496Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/)\n* [Will Russia test a nuclear weapon during the listed years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13125/russian-nuclear-tests-2022-2023/)\n* [Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/)\n* [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/)\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n----\n\n***In 2023, will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?***\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13933, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704034148.116839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704034148.116839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.010487203023746092 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.794405117279162, 5.069171000622541, 0.6777891586227663, 0.05254510640314509, 0.0, 0.004929625960900538, 0.015087204850045471, 0.1211560084238866, 0.00043222964109477943, 0.008628320961295543, 0.03497154883405448, 0.0, 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"title": "In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?", "created_at": "2022-12-09T02:14:26.082267Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/)\n* [Will Russia test a nuclear weapon during the listed years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13125/russian-nuclear-tests-2022-2023/)\n* [Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/)\n* [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/)\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "To clarify this question, Scott Alexander wrote:\n\n>Detonation means nuclear explosion. If a nuclear weapon is launched/dropped/etc but the nuclear weapon does not detonate (due to malfunction, interception, etc), that would not count as detonation. If a conventional explosion occurs but no nuclear explosion (for example, a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion), that doesn’t count.\n\nThis question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13931, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703968107.714393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703968107.714393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.021816245873697144 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.75513330235796, 10.128364737932223, 0.796095725475821, 0.9616992122259971, 0.8567005323975867, 0.9413099501630064, 0.24865520330125196, 0.05865505746540891, 0.07264368320945006, 0.0469829880014862, 0.3398626660422176, 0.006841556598710965, 0.08224514339306427, 0.0, 0.007736720318937776, 0.5460134690935392, 0.0, 0.07053489926846906, 0.008176442597532493, 0.04675744036674928, 0.34622709009552244, 0.003579478923483798, 0.0008531977800171985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005507331055862074, 0.003579653479762674, 0.01144295363119947, 0.003834498369845696, 0.0, 0.10090527563851504, 0.004616095068876894, 0.031822899614271094, 0.00265848834895347, 0.0330251649477209, 0.005193499882448794, 0.003773749562731839, 0.00017279667634627265, 0.006475313878925681, 0.0009658705212742066, 0.0018883783134203145, 0.0, 0.003217533778339939, 0.0, 0.0036969067803002704, 2.237379321509672e-05, 0.0, 0.00041534158328349844, 0.00038764653632702956, 0.0, 0.07689060908666542, 0.0007057358804959713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015582468461029745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015973987404385002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033699200179016864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.011092609433765e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006304326260030172, 6.761664210985226e-06, 0.0, 0.0010913848090489291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.823230555681492, "coverage": 0.9997210602553281, "baseline_score": 52.99410204147732, "spot_peer_score": 2.8006780708956445, "peer_archived_score": 7.823230555681492, "baseline_archived_score": 52.99410204147732, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.8006780708956445 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008380.616803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008380.616803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 227, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 952, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Questions on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/)\n* [Will Russia test a nuclear weapon during the listed years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13125/russian-nuclear-tests-2022-2023/)\n* [Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/)\n* [Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/)\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7454/inadvertent-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n* [Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7455/unauthorised-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n* [Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7407/deliberate-nuclear-detonation-by-2024/)\n\n----" } ] }
