Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3560
{ "count": 6373, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3580", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=3540", "results": [ { "id": 17917, "title": "Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?", "short_title": "Evidence of Alien Tech Recovered at IM1 Site?", "url_title": "Evidence of Alien Tech Recovered at IM1 Site?", "slug": "evidence-of-alien-tech-recovered-at-im1-site", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-17T18:46:53.881802Z", "published_at": "2023-07-21T19:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:02:29.774268Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-21T19:16:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-21T19:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17917, "title": "Will evidence of alien technology be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-07-17T18:46:53.881802Z", "open_time": "2023-07-21T19:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-22T10:36:59.641535Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-22T10:36:59.641535Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In his book [*Extraterrestrial*](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomer-avi-loeb-says-aliens-have-visited-and-hes-not-kidding1/), Harvard astrophysicist [Avi Loeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Loeb) suggests that a 2017 interstellar object known as ['Oumuamua](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/asteroids-comets-and-meteors/comets/oumuamua/in-depth/) is [\"interstellar technology built by aliens\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/space/avi-loeb-harvard-university-ufos-b2039269.html).\n\nInspired by partially by ‘Oumuamua, Loeb founded [The Galileo Project](https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/galileo/) in 2021 to \"[systematically search for extraterrestrial intelligence or extraterrestrial technology on and near Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Galileo_Project).\" Galileo planned and [secured funding for](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/message-in-an-interstellar-bottle-c393ea526e9f) an [expedition](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/summary-of-the-successful-interstellar-expedition-61ff4467070d) to recover portions of an object known as [CNEOS 2014-01-08](https://www.space.com/2014-meteor-first-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua), commonly called [Interstellar Meteor 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08) (IM1), which crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014. \n\nIM1 became a target of interest for The Gallileo Project when Loeb and a student, [Amir Siraj](https://scholar.harvard.edu/siraj/home), submitted a [preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07224) arguing—citing a US Department of Defense [memo](https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/DoD.pdf)—that the object originated outside the solar system.\n\n> we identify the ∼0.45m meteor detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC as originating from an unbound hyperbolic orbit with 99.999\\% confidence. The U.S. Department of Defense has since verified that \"the velocity estimate reported to NASA is sufficiently accurate to indicate an interstellar trajectory.\"\n\nIf Loeb and Siraj are correct, then IM1 is the first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) scientifically known to impact the earth. Other scientists have [disputed](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/acm2023/pdf/2226.pdf) their conclusions.\n\n\nBased on IM1's observed toughness, Loeb believes that not only may the object be interstellar, but that it could be [alien technology](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230626-the-underwater-search-for-an-alien-object). To [quote Loeb](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/message-in-an-interstellar-bottle-c393ea526e9f):\n\n> There are two general possibilities. Either IM1 is of new natural origin, or it is artificial, produced by an extraterrestrial technological civilization. Regarding the first possibility, X-ray imaging of the Vela supernova remnant [revealed](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995Natur.373..590S/abstract) bow shocks from bullets flying out of the explosion site, a discovery [I attempted to explain](https://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/9405071.pdf) three decades ago. It is possible that IM1 was a small bullet tougher than conventional iron meteorites, shot out of an exploding star. But it is also possible that it was a spacecraft, a billion-year old equivalent of our [interstellar probes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_probe). Just [imagine](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/the-new-horizons-meteor-a62a3bb177b7) a spacecraft like Voyager 1 & 2, Pioneer 10 & 11 or New Horizons, crashing onto a habitable exo-planet and burning up in its atmosphere. The exo-scientists on this exo-planet would regard the resulting exo-meteor as space trash. However, if they are curious enough to examine the composition of its fragments, they would realize that it was artificial in origin.\n\nUsing a [massive magnetic sled](https://www.livescience.com/interstellar-asteroid-fishing-expedition) to scrape the seabed, Loeb's expedition found [50 spherules](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/avi-loeb-interstellar-object-aliens-b2369534.html) which Loeb believes are portions of IM1. Loeb says these spherules are now being [analyzed](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce) by \"three laboratories in UC Berkeley, Harvard and the Bruker Corporation in Germany.\" Loeb is providing regular updates on his [blog](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce).\n\n> The fundamental question we will address is whether the elements and radioactive isotopes in the spherules have different abundances than solar system materials. If so, we would also check for any anomalies that might indicate a technological origin. For example, the melted material of semiconductors would include rare elements at a much higher abundance than found in nature.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if a systematic review of material gathered from the IM1 crash site off the coast of Papua New Guinea concludes all of the following:\n\n- With 95% confidence, the material did not originate on Earth\n- With 95% confidence, the material reflects a technological origin—that is, there is no known natural process that could create material of this composition.\n\nSuch a systematic review should be peer-reviewed and should incorporate analyses of recovered material from at least 3 independent labs. It must be published before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17917, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762525008.09817, "end_time": 1767282494.766774, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762525008.09817, "end_time": 1767282494.766774, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.11167538264338127 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.58350144767366, 0.49294456470356407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289119.475856, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289119.475856, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 177, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In his book [*Extraterrestrial*](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomer-avi-loeb-says-aliens-have-visited-and-hes-not-kidding1/), Harvard astrophysicist [Avi Loeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Loeb) suggests that a 2017 interstellar object known as ['Oumuamua](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/asteroids-comets-and-meteors/comets/oumuamua/in-depth/) is [\"interstellar technology built by aliens\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/space/avi-loeb-harvard-university-ufos-b2039269.html).\n\nInspired by partially by ‘Oumuamua, Loeb founded [The Galileo Project](https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/galileo/) in 2021 to \"[systematically search for extraterrestrial intelligence or extraterrestrial technology on and near Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Galileo_Project).\" Galileo planned and [secured funding for](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/message-in-an-interstellar-bottle-c393ea526e9f) an [expedition](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/summary-of-the-successful-interstellar-expedition-61ff4467070d) to recover portions of an object known as [CNEOS 2014-01-08](https://www.space.com/2014-meteor-first-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua), commonly called [Interstellar Meteor 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08) (IM1), which crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014. \n\nIM1 became a target of interest for The Gallileo Project when Loeb and a student, [Amir Siraj](https://scholar.harvard.edu/siraj/home), submitted a [preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07224) arguing—citing a US Department of Defense [memo](https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/DoD.pdf)—that the object originated outside the solar system.\n\n> we identify the ∼0.45m meteor detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC as originating from an unbound hyperbolic orbit with 99.999\\% confidence. The U.S. Department of Defense has since verified that \"the velocity estimate reported to NASA is sufficiently accurate to indicate an interstellar trajectory.\"\n\nIf Loeb and Siraj are correct, then IM1 is the first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) scientifically known to impact the earth. Other scientists have [disputed](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/acm2023/pdf/2226.pdf) their conclusions.\n\n\nBased on IM1's observed toughness, Loeb believes that not only may the object be interstellar, but that it could be [alien technology](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230626-the-underwater-search-for-an-alien-object). To [quote Loeb](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/message-in-an-interstellar-bottle-c393ea526e9f):\n\n> There are two general possibilities. Either IM1 is of new natural origin, or it is artificial, produced by an extraterrestrial technological civilization. Regarding the first possibility, X-ray imaging of the Vela supernova remnant [revealed](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1995Natur.373..590S/abstract) bow shocks from bullets flying out of the explosion site, a discovery [I attempted to explain](https://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/9405071.pdf) three decades ago. It is possible that IM1 was a small bullet tougher than conventional iron meteorites, shot out of an exploding star. But it is also possible that it was a spacecraft, a billion-year old equivalent of our [interstellar probes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_probe). Just [imagine](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/the-new-horizons-meteor-a62a3bb177b7) a spacecraft like Voyager 1 & 2, Pioneer 10 & 11 or New Horizons, crashing onto a habitable exo-planet and burning up in its atmosphere. The exo-scientists on this exo-planet would regard the resulting exo-meteor as space trash. However, if they are curious enough to examine the composition of its fragments, they would realize that it was artificial in origin.\n\nUsing a [massive magnetic sled](https://www.livescience.com/interstellar-asteroid-fishing-expedition) to scrape the seabed, Loeb's expedition found [50 spherules](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/avi-loeb-interstellar-object-aliens-b2369534.html) which Loeb believes are portions of IM1. Loeb says these spherules are now being [analyzed](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce) by \"three laboratories in UC Berkeley, Harvard and the Bruker Corporation in Germany.\" Loeb is providing regular updates on his [blog](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce).\n\n> The fundamental question we will address is whether the elements and radioactive isotopes in the spherules have different abundances than solar system materials. If so, we would also check for any anomalies that might indicate a technological origin. For example, the melted material of semiconductors would include rare elements at a much higher abundance than found in nature." }, { "id": 17916, "title": "Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?", "short_title": "UPS Strike on Aug 4, 2023?", "url_title": "UPS Strike on Aug 4, 2023?", "slug": "ups-strike-on-aug-4-2023", "author_id": 150367, "author_username": "crsrudow", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-17T18:38:21.554957Z", "published_at": "2023-07-19T15:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.945691Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-19T15:15:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-04T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-04T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T15:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17916, "title": "Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-17T18:38:21.554957Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T15:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-24T15:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-24T15:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-04T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-04T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-03T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-03T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[UPS](https://www.ups.com/kz/en/Home.page) and UPS union employees are in the midst of [negotiations](https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/ups-will-train-non-union-employees-ahead-of-looming-strike/) over a new contract. The current employee contract is set to expire on July 31, 2023. Negotiations [deadlocked](https://www.reuters.com/business/teamsters-says-ups-has-walked-away-negotiations-2023-07-05/) in early July.\n\n> The Teamsters Union said on Wednesday United Parcel Service \"walked away\" from negotiations over a new contract, a claim the shipping giant denied, lobbing its own accusation that the union had stopped negotiating.\n\n> The two sides traded salvos in early morning statements as they attempt an agreement to prevent a strike when the current contract, which covers some 340,000 workers, expires at the end of the month.\n\n> Workers of UPS have already authorized a strike should the talks break down. Such a labor action would be the first since 1997 for UPS workers, in a strike that lasted 15 days, cost the company $850 million and sent some customers to rivals\nBoth the union and company officials have said before that they wanted a deal finalized to prevent a strike, which could put millions of daily deliveries at risk.\n\nTeamsters leaders have [asked the White House](https://thehill.com/business/4101107-teamsters-chief-asks-white-house-not-to-intervene-if-ups-workers-strike/) not to intervene in the event of a strike.\n\nA UPS Teamsters strike would be the largest U.S. Labor strike in more than 60 years and could have broad reverberations in the economy.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if credible reports indicate the [UPS Teamsters](https://teamster.org/divisions/package-division/) are [on strike](https://www.upsteamstersunited.org) as of 12pm ET on August 4, 2023. Please note that this question resolves solely on the status of the strike on August 4. If a strike is declared prior to August 4, this question will not resolve based on that announcement.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17916, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691069129.182459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691069129.182459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.015254818696856468 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.045315472165575, 7.834638294255436, 0.07547027051640573, 0.8169503505361093, 0.0005840504789813368, 0.21625054573838015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6703923642285161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7334510513637839, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002148601638235674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000341753265518315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00032397105124447225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015076747160505023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.046339999853544e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003317583204198018, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010008855991279154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012390029362510449, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.861759722839157, "coverage": 0.999765312164302, "baseline_score": 76.81753861775789, "spot_peer_score": 5.246198482365081, "peer_archived_score": 10.861759722839157, "baseline_archived_score": 76.81753861775789, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.246198482365081 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691069129.215522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691069129.215522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 131, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 422, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[UPS](https://www.ups.com/kz/en/Home.page) and UPS union employees are in the midst of [negotiations](https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/news/ups-will-train-non-union-employees-ahead-of-looming-strike/) over a new contract. The current employee contract is set to expire on July 31, 2023. Negotiations [deadlocked](https://www.reuters.com/business/teamsters-says-ups-has-walked-away-negotiations-2023-07-05/) in early July.\n\n> The Teamsters Union said on Wednesday United Parcel Service \"walked away\" from negotiations over a new contract, a claim the shipping giant denied, lobbing its own accusation that the union had stopped negotiating.\n\n> The two sides traded salvos in early morning statements as they attempt an agreement to prevent a strike when the current contract, which covers some 340,000 workers, expires at the end of the month.\n\n> Workers of UPS have already authorized a strike should the talks break down. Such a labor action would be the first since 1997 for UPS workers, in a strike that lasted 15 days, cost the company $850 million and sent some customers to rivals\nBoth the union and company officials have said before that they wanted a deal finalized to prevent a strike, which could put millions of daily deliveries at risk.\n\nTeamsters leaders have [asked the White House](https://thehill.com/business/4101107-teamsters-chief-asks-white-house-not-to-intervene-if-ups-workers-strike/) not to intervene in the event of a strike.\n\nA UPS Teamsters strike would be the largest U.S. Labor strike in more than 60 years and could have broad reverberations in the economy." }, { "id": 17914, "title": "Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?", "short_title": "India's Chandrayaan-3 soft-lands on Moon?", "url_title": "India's Chandrayaan-3 soft-lands on Moon?", "slug": "indias-chandrayaan-3-soft-lands-on-moon", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-17T00:01:41.350495Z", "published_at": "2023-07-20T16:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.435892Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-20T16:45:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-23T12:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-23T12:40:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-20T16:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17914, "title": "Will the Chandrayaan-3 lander soft-land on the moon?", "created_at": "2023-07-17T00:01:41.350495Z", "open_time": "2023-07-20T16:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-22T16:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-22T16:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-23T12:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-23T12:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-23T12:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Chandrayaan-3 lander [Vikram](https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/indias-chandrayaan-3-mission-launches-for-the-moon/#:~:text=The%20Vikram%20rover%20undergoing%20acoustic,be%20seen%20in%20the%20foreground.&text=The%20mission%20is%20targeting%20a,set%20for%20August%2023%2C%202023.) is a lunar lander designed by India's space program (ISRO). \n\nThe Chandrayaan-2 mission was launched in July 2019 and it resulted in a lander that [crashed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/20/science/chandrayaan-2-moon-india.html) on the lunar surface in September of that year. The cause was attributed to a [software](https://spacenews.com/software-problem-blamed-for-ispace-lunar-lander-crash/) glitch.\n\nIf the Chandrayaan-3 mission is successful India would only be the fourth country to soft land a lander on the moon after the Soviet Union, the US, and China.\n\nThe Chandrayaan-3 lander Vikram was launched on a GSLV Mark 3 rocket on July 14, 2023 and is expected to land on the moon on August 23 or 24 near [Mutus crater](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutus_(crater)).", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the Vikram lander soft-lands on the surface of the moon.\n\nTo qualify as a soft-landing, the lander must touch the lunar surface in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage all of its systems to the point of being inoperable. If some but not all systems are damaged during the landing, but the lander can still perform some of its tasks with its onboard equipment and the Indian Space Research Organization is able to communicate with the lander after the landing, then it will qualify as a successful landing and the question will resolve **Yes.**", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17914, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692797545.781291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692797545.781291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17000000000000004, 0.83 ], "means": [ 0.842367575285324 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015287348614981507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09215390124464654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1472607563769713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19952299706141624, 0.0, 0.023714766002371646, 0.043962607759905424, 0.0, 0.030705460506385295, 0.035258372908316536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37958229031790724, 0.1345137037522881, 0.7952250978944, 0.1674962009400442, 0.47864783173459635, 0.0, 0.24646082002862074, 1.1937606817387407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9081666571313991, 0.0, 0.10155422864166669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.767402459761402, 0.0, 0.4056990931061085, 0.6050701869380475, 0.0, 0.22688437022518046, 0.0052619857942816685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6010511134992529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.88201379827923 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.844342483531311, "coverage": 0.9949633788943082, "baseline_score": 35.73812558601889, "spot_peer_score": 1.8796491345245034, "peer_archived_score": 2.844342483531311, "baseline_archived_score": 35.73812558601889, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.8796491345245034 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692787922.006799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692787922.006799, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3070660778622585, 0.6929339221377415 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Chandrayaan-3 lander [Vikram](https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-news/indias-chandrayaan-3-mission-launches-for-the-moon/#:~:text=The%20Vikram%20rover%20undergoing%20acoustic,be%20seen%20in%20the%20foreground.&text=The%20mission%20is%20targeting%20a,set%20for%20August%2023%2C%202023.) is a lunar lander designed by India's space program (ISRO). \n\nThe Chandrayaan-2 mission was launched in July 2019 and it resulted in a lander that [crashed](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/20/science/chandrayaan-2-moon-india.html) on the lunar surface in September of that year. The cause was attributed to a [software](https://spacenews.com/software-problem-blamed-for-ispace-lunar-lander-crash/) glitch.\n\nIf the Chandrayaan-3 mission is successful India would only be the fourth country to soft land a lander on the moon after the Soviet Union, the US, and China.\n\nThe Chandrayaan-3 lander Vikram was launched on a GSLV Mark 3 rocket on July 14, 2023 and is expected to land on the moon on August 23 or 24 near [Mutus crater](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutus_(crater))." }, { "id": 17907, "title": "Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?", "short_title": "500 summer sun hours in Stockholm 2023?", "url_title": "500 summer sun hours in Stockholm 2023?", "slug": "500-summer-sun-hours-in-stockholm-2023", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-15T08:09:42.574861Z", "published_at": "2023-07-18T19:11:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.362820Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-18T19:11:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T19:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T19:04:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-18T19:11:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17907, "title": "Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-15T08:09:42.574861Z", "open_time": "2023-07-18T19:11:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-25T19:11:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-25T19:11:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T19:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-11T19:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-11T19:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Over the last few years, Sweden has had hotter and sunnier summers than usual, an experience shared with other places around the world. The hot and dry summers are bad for crop yields, but occasionally celebrated by people looking to enjoy their vacation and recharge on daylight after a long, dark winter.\n\nSo far, this summer has also been hot and dry and there's no real reason to think it would not continue to be. That said, exceeding 500 hours of sun in Stockholm has happened only four times in the past 20 years, with the normal amount of sun in recent history hovering in the 350-450 hour range.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the total number of hours of sun (summation over the weeks 26-32 inclusive) listed for Stockholm by [SVT Data Journalism Sun League](https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/solligan-2023/) exceeds 500. \n\nThe number of hours used to resolve this question will be the ones listed the first time the page is accessed after August 13th.", "fine_print": "If the page is not available between August 14th and 17th, but SVT maintains an equivalent successor to that page, the successor will be used instead. If SVT does not publish any data on sun hours between the 14th and 17th, the question resolves ambiguously.", "post_id": 17907, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690707370.325155, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690707370.325155, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.45994519124540606 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0018212754359516522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009421972532252106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023581552929626388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14143337665434377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001379858935095631, 0.1295231681885532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0626766861743116, 0.0, 0.35429506799393984, 0.0935995340834141, 0.14888738093416204, 0.05767687723282869, 0.9513477447084248, 0.9185335521488459, 0.01436417762030988, 0.13702143948282391, 0.3334979351997829, 1.986158628311684, 1.5694692483047392, 0.7015129590353969, 1.3828766652560227, 0.10224053587202853, 2.6909300619989076, 1.4163723317392405, 0.0004041163834588682, 0.0, 0.9210288753415199, 0.0, 0.1256084559748446, 0.00024412630734546445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018927997746118922, 1.4160089365118071, 0.18784140575864994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4245775942568377, 0.00857955699592601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4359049064786896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014714472786020486, 0.0, 0.6002052451853856, 0.4128280026621309, 0.0, 0.8216789594573832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006410130681544858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015895181711987486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.490531707686874, "coverage": 0.9999717669397497, "baseline_score": 24.529110637496565, "spot_peer_score": 7.321618877126194, "peer_archived_score": 7.490531707686874, "baseline_archived_score": 24.529110637496565, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.321618877126194 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690707370.346836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690707370.346836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.730030394468058, 0.26996960553194205 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 362, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Over the last few years, Sweden has had hotter and sunnier summers than usual, an experience shared with other places around the world. The hot and dry summers are bad for crop yields, but occasionally celebrated by people looking to enjoy their vacation and recharge on daylight after a long, dark winter.\n\nSo far, this summer has also been hot and dry and there's no real reason to think it would not continue to be. That said, exceeding 500 hours of sun in Stockholm has happened only four times in the past 20 years, with the normal amount of sun in recent history hovering in the 350-450 hour range." }, { "id": 17906, "title": "Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?", "short_title": "Interstellar Material Discovered at IM1 Site?", "url_title": "Interstellar Material Discovered at IM1 Site?", "slug": "interstellar-material-discovered-at-im1-site", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-14T18:46:17.377333Z", "published_at": "2023-07-21T18:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.718304Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-21T18:22:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-21T18:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17906, "title": "Will material of interstellar origin be recovered near the IM1 crash site before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-07-14T18:46:17.377333Z", "open_time": "2023-07-21T18:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-22T23:24:13.375635Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-22T23:24:13.375635Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T11:14:06.130282Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[CNEOS 2014-01-08](https://www.space.com/2014-meteor-first-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua), also known as [Interstellar Meteor 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08) (IM1), crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014. \n\nHarvard astrophysicist [Avi Loeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Loeb) and a student, [Amir Siraj](https://scholar.harvard.edu/siraj/home), published a [preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07224) which argued—citing a US Department of Defense [memo](https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/DoD.pdf)—that the object originated outside the solar system.\n\n> we identify the ∼0.45m meteor detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC as originating from an unbound hyperbolic orbit with 99.999\\% confidence. The U.S. Department of Defense has since verified that \"the velocity estimate reported to NASA is sufficiently accurate to indicate an interstellar trajectory.\"\n\nIf Loeb and Siraj are correct, then IM1 is the first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) scientifically known to impact the earth. Other scientists have [disputed](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/acm2023/pdf/2226.pdf) their conclusions.\n\nLoeb had previously suggested in his book [*Extraterrestrial*](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomer-avi-loeb-says-aliens-have-visited-and-hes-not-kidding1/) that a 2017 interstellar object known ‘Oumuamua’ as was [\"interstellar technology built by aliens\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/space/avi-loeb-harvard-university-ufos-b2039269.html), though other scientists have proposed [alternative explanations](https://www.science.org/content/article/mystery-our-first-interstellar-visitor-may-be-solved#:~:text=Astronomers%20named%20the%20object%201I,it%20left%20the%20Solar%20System.) for Omuamua's \"strange behavior.\"\n\nIn 2023, Loeb launched an [expedition](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/summary-of-the-successful-interstellar-expedition-61ff4467070d) to recover portions of IM1, stating his belief that not only may the object be interstellar, but that it could be [alien technology](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230626-the-underwater-search-for-an-alien-object). Using a [massive magnetic sled](https://www.livescience.com/interstellar-asteroid-fishing-expedition) to scrape the seabed, Loeb's expedition found [50 spherules](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/avi-loeb-interstellar-object-aliens-b2369534.html) which Loeb believes are portions of IM1. Loeb says these spherules are now being [analyzed](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce) by \"three laboratories in UC Berkeley, Harvard and the Bruker Corporation in Germany.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if at least three independent labs publish peer-reviewed studies on the question of the origin of material gathered from the IM1 crash site off the coast of Papua New Guinea, concluding the material is likelier than not (e.g. 51% or higher) from outside our solar system.\n\nFurther details:\n\n- The studies must be published before January 1, 2025\n- To qualify as \"independent\", each lab's conclusions must be stated independently of the expedition team. This condition is satisfied if:\n - the conclusions are published in papers without Avi Loeb as coauthor, or;\n - Avi Loeb is a coauthor, and the papers clearly outline the results obtained by the independent labs and the process for fully independent verification.\n- A single study (or two studies) incorporating analyses from three independent labs may be considered, if three independent studies are not available. In this case:\n - at least three independent labs must be cited in the studies;\n - The criteria for independence, above, must be satisfied.\n - Each lab must independently support the conclusion that the material is likelier than not (51% or higher) from outside the solar system. \n\nThe question resolves **No** in all other cases.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17906, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654758.377794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654758.377794, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.033842877618048765 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.918236053818245, 0.4936429484384337, 0.0, 0.6091953192457651, 0.33432944568041745, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32095009638330796, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26631846171697116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 73.62158758787538, "peer_score": 12.584690472788518, "coverage": 0.9995633407266413, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9995633407266413, "spot_peer_score": 55.09732659980985, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "baseline_archived_score": 73.62158758787538, "peer_archived_score": 12.584690472788518, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 55.09732659980985, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287113.475109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287113.475109, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9883098377511643, 0.011690162248835628 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[CNEOS 2014-01-08](https://www.space.com/2014-meteor-first-interstellar-visitor-oumuamua), also known as [Interstellar Meteor 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08) (IM1), crashed of the coast of Papua New Guinea on January 8th, 2014. \n\nHarvard astrophysicist [Avi Loeb](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avi_Loeb) and a student, [Amir Siraj](https://scholar.harvard.edu/siraj/home), published a [preprint](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07224) which argued—citing a US Department of Defense [memo](https://lweb.cfa.harvard.edu/~loeb/DoD.pdf)—that the object originated outside the solar system.\n\n> we identify the ∼0.45m meteor detected at 2014-01-08 17:05:34 UTC as originating from an unbound hyperbolic orbit with 99.999\\% confidence. The U.S. Department of Defense has since verified that \"the velocity estimate reported to NASA is sufficiently accurate to indicate an interstellar trajectory.\"\n\nIf Loeb and Siraj are correct, then IM1 is the first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object) scientifically known to impact the earth. Other scientists have [disputed](https://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/acm2023/pdf/2226.pdf) their conclusions.\n\nLoeb had previously suggested in his book [*Extraterrestrial*](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomer-avi-loeb-says-aliens-have-visited-and-hes-not-kidding1/) that a 2017 interstellar object known ‘Oumuamua’ as was [\"interstellar technology built by aliens\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/space/avi-loeb-harvard-university-ufos-b2039269.html), though other scientists have proposed [alternative explanations](https://www.science.org/content/article/mystery-our-first-interstellar-visitor-may-be-solved#:~:text=Astronomers%20named%20the%20object%201I,it%20left%20the%20Solar%20System.) for Omuamua's \"strange behavior.\"\n\nIn 2023, Loeb launched an [expedition](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/summary-of-the-successful-interstellar-expedition-61ff4467070d) to recover portions of IM1, stating his belief that not only may the object be interstellar, but that it could be [alien technology](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230626-the-underwater-search-for-an-alien-object). Using a [massive magnetic sled](https://www.livescience.com/interstellar-asteroid-fishing-expedition) to scrape the seabed, Loeb's expedition found [50 spherules](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/avi-loeb-interstellar-object-aliens-b2369534.html) which Loeb believes are portions of IM1. Loeb says these spherules are now being [analyzed](https://avi-loeb.medium.com/starting-the-analysis-of-spherules-from-the-interstellar-expedition-2bc608d2d7ce) by \"three laboratories in UC Berkeley, Harvard and the Bruker Corporation in Germany.\"" }, { "id": 17827, "title": "Will Turkey be a member of the European Union by 2040?", "short_title": "Turkey a member of the European Union by 2040", "url_title": "Turkey a member of the European Union by 2040", "slug": "turkey-a-member-of-the-european-union-by-2040", "author_id": 132719, "author_username": "MetaCalculator", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-13T00:27:35.874084Z", "published_at": "2023-07-15T21:39:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T21:08:21.893750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-15T21:39:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2039-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-15T21:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17827, "title": "Will Turkey be a member of the European Union by 2040?", "created_at": "2023-07-13T00:27:35.874084Z", "open_time": "2023-07-15T21:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-16T14:39:24.795140Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-16T14:39:24.795140Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2039-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Turkey has been [applying](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union) to join the European Union's predecessor since 1987, and recognized as a Candidate in 1999. However, progress has stalled, and the EU suspended negotiations in 2019.\n\nMore recently, Turkey's president Erdogan has [linked](https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/10/europe/erdogan-turkey-nato-eu-sweden-intl/index.html) Sweden's NATO application to join NATO to Turkey's application to join the EU, claiming that the EU should \"clear a path\" for Turkey to join before Turkey approves Sweden's application.\n\nGiven NATO's (which includes most of EU's member states) desire to have Sweden join NATO since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the shifting geopolitical landscape for both the EU and Turkey since the start of that war, the EU may consider restarting the negotiations on Turkey's EU ascension.", "resolution_criteria": "Will the Republic of Türkiye (Turkey) be a full member of the European Union on or before December 31, 2039?", "fine_print": "* Turkey formally joining the EU will resolve the question as \"yes\", regardless of Turkey's future membership status in the EU.\n* If the EU formally ceases to exist before the closing date, the question will resolve as \"no.\"\n* Other states joining or leaving the EU, or a change in the EU's legal status (as long as it remains in, or is an internationally recognized successor to, its current form), will not effect the resolution of this question, and Turkey joining any such formal successor entity before the closing date would resolve the question as \"yes.\"", "post_id": 17827, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762290490.986694, "end_time": 1765547479.097586, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762290490.986694, "end_time": 1765547479.097586, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.11620890924750885 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.03913203907098744, 1.6725257737556454, 0.489443922029742, 0.7264831285985409, 2.1945927249673596, 0.19043220276906433, 0.0, 0.28484474923645975, 0.06825837252413955, 1.778394871585146, 0.2106750195973517, 0.0, 0.05985794318764461, 0.0, 0.18985062634551408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11206782078567631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7922460993238396, 0.04402328386471337, 0.0, 0.7316591424190335, 0.3395232167316722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038586475818220903, 0.0, 0.10601477192634293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01644146499808245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5726740774817343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287819.864291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287819.864291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.987030091756235, 0.012969908243765012 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Turkey has been [applying](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union) to join the European Union's predecessor since 1987, and recognized as a Candidate in 1999. However, progress has stalled, and the EU suspended negotiations in 2019.\n\nMore recently, Turkey's president Erdogan has [linked](https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/10/europe/erdogan-turkey-nato-eu-sweden-intl/index.html) Sweden's NATO application to join NATO to Turkey's application to join the EU, claiming that the EU should \"clear a path\" for Turkey to join before Turkey approves Sweden's application.\n\nGiven NATO's (which includes most of EU's member states) desire to have Sweden join NATO since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the shifting geopolitical landscape for both the EU and Turkey since the start of that war, the EU may consider restarting the negotiations on Turkey's EU ascension." }, { "id": 17826, "title": "Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025?", "short_title": "Threads AcitivityPub support", "url_title": "Threads AcitivityPub support", "slug": "threads-acitivitypub-support", "author_id": 136419, "author_username": "baileywickham", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-12T22:22:36.392103Z", "published_at": "2023-07-26T00:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.701742Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-26T00:22:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-21T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T09:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T09:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-21T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-26T00:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17826, "title": "Will Threads support ActivityPub before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-07-12T22:22:36.392103Z", "open_time": "2023-07-26T00:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-28T00:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-28T00:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T09:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-21T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T21:56:23.421340Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T09:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-21T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Instagram recently announced Threads, a text based social media application integrated with Instagram. Instagram [announced](https://help.instagram.com/169559812696339) they are planning on supporting [ActivityPub](https://www.w3.org/TR/activitypub/) a protocol for social networking.", "resolution_criteria": "Instagram, Threads, Meta, or Credible Sources will announce that Threads now supports ActivityPub.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17826, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735697454.053537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735697454.053537, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.6192249433040101 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.3872215097627376, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4443075475950298, 0.8039004749638528, 1.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.742795706659396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 11.887677013591095, "peer_score": 7.112958491070389, "coverage": 0.45424112029630337, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9979365294353497, "spot_peer_score": 5.4398229841688845, "spot_baseline_score": -21.75914350726268, "baseline_archived_score": 11.887677013591095, "peer_archived_score": 7.112958491070389, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.4398229841688845, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -21.75914350726268 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287898.695823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287898.695823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5355023455892247, 0.46449765441077534 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Instagram recently announced Threads, a text based social media application integrated with Instagram. Instagram [announced](https://help.instagram.com/169559812696339) they are planning on supporting [ActivityPub](https://www.w3.org/TR/activitypub/) a protocol for social networking." }, { "id": 17825, "title": "Will a female driver win a NASCAR Cup Series race before 2050?", "short_title": "Female NASCAR Cup Winner by 2050?", "url_title": "Female NASCAR Cup Winner by 2050?", "slug": "female-nascar-cup-winner-by-2050", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-12T19:40:18.660116Z", "published_at": "2023-07-21T00:13:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.113688Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-21T00:13:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-21T00:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17825, "title": "Will a female driver win a NASCAR Cup Series race before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-07-12T19:40:18.660116Z", "open_time": "2023-07-21T00:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-23T00:13:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-23T00:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Successful IndyCar driver [Danica Patrick's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danica_Patrick) switch to NASCAR in 2011 caused a media stir, as she quickly became the only active female driver in the Cup Series. However, her NASCAR career was [widely](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1368179-danica-patrick-7-reasons-her-move-to-nascar-has-been-a-huge-disappointment) [considered](https://www.si.com/racing/2016/08/03/ap-car-nascar-danicas-drive) a [disappointment](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x-6HfXy85A) and she never registered a Top 5 in her career.\n\nAs of 2023, there are [roughly a dozen currently active female drivers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_female_NASCAR_drivers#Drivers) in NASCAR-sanctioned series, none of whom have yet made a Cup Series start.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolve positively if official NASCAR reports a female driver as the winner of a Cup Series race before January 1st, 2050. Otherwise it resolve negative.", "fine_print": "If the NASCAR Cup Series ceases to exist before the resolution date, the question will resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 17825, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754391949.728831, "end_time": 1773404192.239859, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.295 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754391949.728831, "end_time": 1773404192.239859, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.295 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22938082497267942 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1886472394592529, 0.0, 0.8476673846986682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.7425740904401276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287997.92725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287997.92725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8831751040635626, 0.11682489593643744 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Successful IndyCar driver [Danica Patrick's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danica_Patrick) switch to NASCAR in 2011 caused a media stir, as she quickly became the only active female driver in the Cup Series. However, her NASCAR career was [widely](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1368179-danica-patrick-7-reasons-her-move-to-nascar-has-been-a-huge-disappointment) [considered](https://www.si.com/racing/2016/08/03/ap-car-nascar-danicas-drive) a [disappointment](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8x-6HfXy85A) and she never registered a Top 5 in her career.\n\nAs of 2023, there are [roughly a dozen currently active female drivers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_female_NASCAR_drivers#Drivers) in NASCAR-sanctioned series, none of whom have yet made a Cup Series start." }, { "id": 17824, "title": "Will a major automobile manufacturer offer a V8 platform in a personal vehicle in 2041?", "short_title": "Last of the V8s?", "url_title": "Last of the V8s?", "slug": "last-of-the-v8s", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-12T19:07:16.765365Z", "published_at": "2023-08-04T20:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.886425Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-04T20:24:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2042-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-04T20:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17824, "title": "Will a major automobile manufacturer offer a V8 platform in a personal vehicle in 2041?", "created_at": "2023-07-12T19:07:16.765365Z", "open_time": "2023-08-04T20:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-06T20:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-06T20:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2042-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2042-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The famous dystopian film [Mad Max](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Max_(film)) depicted a rapidly-collapsing world that [no longer produced](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUi5Lo9SHTY) the famous [V8 engine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V8_engine). This was a reflection of the time in which the movie was made, namely the [1979 oil crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_oil_crisis), during which V8s become unpopular and were largely replaced with the more efficient I4 engine.\n\nThe V8 managed to survive these events to the current day, however [speculation](https://fox59.com/automotive/is-this-the-last-of-the-v8-engines/) [has once again](https://www.motorbiscuit.com/hard-to-find-new-v8-suvs-here-are-last-made/) [started on](https://www.motorbiscuit.com/could-we-see-end-v8-engines/) [the death of](https://www.foxnews.com/auto/when-last-v8-muscle-car-built) the V8 due to [increasing electrification](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/charging-into-the-future-the-transition-to-electric-vehicles.htm) of the American vehicle fleet and [government regulations](https://www.ncsl.org/energy/state-policies-promoting-hybrid-and-electric-vehicles). [Many manufacturers](https://www.kbb.com/car-news/maserati-will-build-its-last-v8-shortly/) [have ceased to produce](https://www.foxnews.com/auto/when-last-v8-dodge-muscle-car-revealed) V8-equipped vehicles or have [pledged to do so in the near future.](https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/automaker-ev-plans/) However, [some others](https://www.autoblog.com/2022/09/12/mercedes-amg-keeping-v8-alive/) [have remained open](https://www.hagerty.com/media/news/the-manifold/2022-04-26/) to the possibility of continuing production of the V8 if consumer demand is present.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve Yes if, for the 2042 model year, a V8 engine is offered in any personal vehicle produced by a major automobile manufacturer. A major automobile manufacturer is defined as any company that produces at least one million vehicles annually according to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production). \n\nOtherwise, this question resolves No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17824, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751680219.212888, "end_time": 1773365048.306052, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751680219.212888, "end_time": 1773365048.306052, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6014137949905562 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288121.262588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288121.262588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.44356875033712684, 0.5564312496628732 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The famous dystopian film [Mad Max](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mad_Max_(film)) depicted a rapidly-collapsing world that [no longer produced](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUi5Lo9SHTY) the famous [V8 engine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V8_engine). This was a reflection of the time in which the movie was made, namely the [1979 oil crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_oil_crisis), during which V8s become unpopular and were largely replaced with the more efficient I4 engine.\n\nThe V8 managed to survive these events to the current day, however [speculation](https://fox59.com/automotive/is-this-the-last-of-the-v8-engines/) [has once again](https://www.motorbiscuit.com/hard-to-find-new-v8-suvs-here-are-last-made/) [started on](https://www.motorbiscuit.com/could-we-see-end-v8-engines/) [the death of](https://www.foxnews.com/auto/when-last-v8-muscle-car-built) the V8 due to [increasing electrification](https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-12/charging-into-the-future-the-transition-to-electric-vehicles.htm) of the American vehicle fleet and [government regulations](https://www.ncsl.org/energy/state-policies-promoting-hybrid-and-electric-vehicles). [Many manufacturers](https://www.kbb.com/car-news/maserati-will-build-its-last-v8-shortly/) [have ceased to produce](https://www.foxnews.com/auto/when-last-v8-dodge-muscle-car-revealed) V8-equipped vehicles or have [pledged to do so in the near future.](https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/automaker-ev-plans/) However, [some others](https://www.autoblog.com/2022/09/12/mercedes-amg-keeping-v8-alive/) [have remained open](https://www.hagerty.com/media/news/the-manifold/2022-04-26/) to the possibility of continuing production of the V8 if consumer demand is present." }, { "id": 17796, "title": "Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?", "short_title": "U2 concert at The Sphere?", "url_title": "U2 concert at The Sphere?", "slug": "u2-concert-at-the-sphere", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-11T23:18:45.248004Z", "published_at": "2023-07-13T16:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.510393Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-13T16:02:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-09-28T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-28T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:06:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-13T16:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 137, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17796, "title": "Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?", "created_at": "2023-07-11T23:18:45.248004Z", "open_time": "2023-07-13T16:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-12T16:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-12T16:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-09-30T16:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-09-30T16:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-09-28T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-09-28T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Sphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_at_The_Venetian_Resort), an impressive $2 billion venue at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, was [fully illuminated for the first time on July 4, 2023](https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/5/23784790/sphere-las-vegas-led-screen-lit). Covered in 580,000 square feet of programmable LED panels, The Sphere has become a striking addition to the Las Vegas skyline. With an 18,000-seat capacity, it is set to host its [first concert on September 29, 2023](https://www.thespherevegas.com/shows/u2), featuring the band U2.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the U2 concert at The Sphere in Las Vegas occurs as planned on September 29, 2023.", "fine_print": "If the concert *starts* (but does not finish or is rescheduled mid-concert) this question will still resolve **Yes**.", "post_id": 17796, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695917147.294598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.996 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695917147.294598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.996 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.967233579999965 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005744719863826765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030379767063669827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001402481681873137, 0.0, 0.001800780488053471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2701679817256155, 0.004254823866369942, 0.00019501730679357754, 0.0, 0.0001658047095401905, 0.0005463161254831419, 0.14115374876398476, 0.0008989490934055834, 0.0, 0.05653253056008407, 1.6480222976083547, 0.0, 0.0028433058414464576, 0.29024640871319785, 0.0, 1.1216039824393127, 0.0016397732833034772, 0.024607600736944794, 0.0, 0.05906557582308046, 1.8452395170873777, 0.0730340331432442, 0.3969910614748101, 1.0808343896341746, 14.890845200342635 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.233777717886177, "coverage": 0.9999986671348282, "baseline_score": 92.04112297210007, "spot_peer_score": 9.271918065351587, "peer_archived_score": 6.233777717886177, "baseline_archived_score": 92.04112297210007, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.271918065351587 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1695917147.330384, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1695917147.330384, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 137, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.012236990474871923, 0.9877630095251281 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 514, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Sphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_at_The_Venetian_Resort), an impressive $2 billion venue at the Venetian Resort in Las Vegas, was [fully illuminated for the first time on July 4, 2023](https://www.theverge.com/2023/7/5/23784790/sphere-las-vegas-led-screen-lit). Covered in 580,000 square feet of programmable LED panels, The Sphere has become a striking addition to the Las Vegas skyline. With an 18,000-seat capacity, it is set to host its [first concert on September 29, 2023](https://www.thespherevegas.com/shows/u2), featuring the band U2." }, { "id": 17793, "title": "Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?", "short_title": "Crook Manifesto on NYT Bestseller List?", "url_title": "Crook Manifesto on NYT Bestseller List?", "slug": "crook-manifesto-on-nyt-bestseller-list", "author_id": 132519, "author_username": "Anastasia", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-11T19:11:30.495351Z", "published_at": "2023-07-14T20:41:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.459237Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-14T20:41:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-07-28T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-28T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-02T13:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-02T13:06:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-14T20:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17793, "title": "Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?", "created_at": "2023-07-11T19:11:30.495351Z", "open_time": "2023-07-14T20:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-26T20:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-26T20:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-02T13:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-02T13:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-02T13:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-07-28T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-07-28T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Colson Whitehead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colson_Whitehead), is a Pulitzer and National Book Award-winning author who has penned various acclaimed works, such as \"The Underground Railroad,\" \"The Nickel Boys,\" and \"Harlem Shuffle,\" and received numerous accolades like the MacArthur Fellowship. His latest book *Crook Manifesto*, will be published on [July 18th, 2023](https://www.colsonwhitehead.com/) and is considered one of the most anticipated books of the summer.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if *Crook Manifesto* is listed in the top 15 books on the New York Times Best Sellers list for [Hardcover Fiction](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/2023/07/16/hardcover-fiction/) for the list dated August 13th.", "fine_print": "Dated lists generally include sales data ending about 2 weeks prior and are available online about 1 week prior.", "post_id": 17793, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690567112.146772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690567112.146772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8965885299279086 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008008874097028448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007165678900495897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05098420589841443, 0.09862588659995308, 0.021203521862876884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011005415108165126, 0.0557348588410026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008210459748030398, 0.05220534140270124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032942504413227035, 0.19401563668442517, 0.0, 0.03867734993865754, 0.013550076875576434, 0.002744236364250548, 0.2696654503446669, 0.02889739734118714, 0.2774129454458396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13658732078442334, 0.006220517787109449, 0.15948589188226622, 0.026120776162701476, 0.0, 2.9041561390558255, 0.0, 0.21352449006712118, 0.8826238803422948, 0.5451197344970368, 3.347319443140365, 0.21571702137269383, 0.0, 0.4219544127463164, 0.34621719426661424, 1.3702455583084547, 1.5360599704276983, 0.49706945709958816, 0.888825836472129, 0.9715903057107934 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.806077040821375, "coverage": 0.9999962978190811, "baseline_score": 59.35160891276135, "spot_peer_score": 4.561367784861121, "peer_archived_score": 6.806077040821375, "baseline_archived_score": 59.35160891276135, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.561367784861121 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1690567112.16607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1690567112.16607, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1056871759484469, 0.8943128240515531 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 302, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Colson Whitehead](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colson_Whitehead), is a Pulitzer and National Book Award-winning author who has penned various acclaimed works, such as \"The Underground Railroad,\" \"The Nickel Boys,\" and \"Harlem Shuffle,\" and received numerous accolades like the MacArthur Fellowship. His latest book *Crook Manifesto*, will be published on [July 18th, 2023](https://www.colsonwhitehead.com/) and is considered one of the most anticipated books of the summer." }, { "id": 17792, "title": "Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?", "short_title": "Will Ohio Issue 1 pass?", "url_title": "Will Ohio Issue 1 pass?", "slug": "will-ohio-issue-1-pass", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-11T14:32:06.590831Z", "published_at": "2023-07-12T18:52:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.984059Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-12T18:52:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-08T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-08T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-09T01:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-09T01:57:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-12T18:52:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2457, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/quarterlycup.jpeg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-07-03T15:26:00Z", "close_date": "2023-10-04T21:36:03Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-09-30T22:00:44.757000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.537784Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 17792, "title": "Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?", "created_at": "2023-07-11T14:32:06.590831Z", "open_time": "2023-07-12T18:52:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-26T18:52:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-26T18:52:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-09T01:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-09T01:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-09T01:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-08T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-08T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Ohio Issue 1](https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Issue_1,_60%25_Vote_Requirement_to_Approve_Constitutional_Amendments_Measure_(2023)) (2023), also called \"the 60% Vote Requirement to Approve Constitutional Amendments Measure\", is on the ballot in Ohio for an election on August 8, 2023.\n\nA \"yes\" vote would amend the Ohio Constitution and increase the voter approval threshold for future constitutional amendments considered via ballot initiative to 60% (whereas currently the threshold is a simple majority of 50%+1). Issue 1 passing would also require citizen-initiated amendment campaigns to collect signatures from each of the state's 88 counties (whereas previously the threshold was only half of the counties) and eliminate a currently authorized 10 day \"cure\"/grace period for addressing invalid signatures. Generally this would make future ballot initiatives much harder to pass.\n\nA \"no\" vote would maintain the status quo.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves YES if, per credible media reporting, Ohio Issue 1 is passed following the August 2023 election.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17792, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691461368.066976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691461368.066976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.200473400901459 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.007821688261774155, 0.01381767205139121, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5212873199544448, 0.0029475860096120354, 0.0311439998759112, 0.013663597196165075, 0.016262027726336725, 2.210117877762709, 0.0, 1.6036230705002545, 0.7374994975802531, 0.028818142748531093, 2.3607123911233256, 0.039098528828555634, 0.05620179634266334, 1.023691571630564, 0.0, 2.5202749382089227, 0.4995306857238745, 0.0, 0.3867896123689576, 0.3658241735790676, 1.54203511824921, 0.0, 0.32689590086760306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40205728664447193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19537023622071858, 0.02091869879591324, 0.7768176720091959, 0.0041243618131262955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7967255570771548, 0.0009587555935714907, 0.06029862714898469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011276756507707527, 0.002606167907938849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013604687921634723, 0.17302539342679124, 0.001315880072289434, 0.0, 0.5969671220735816, 0.0002698016324819901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020128231617567746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04871973276129222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004466182328135157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0070842988660632985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037313863919853254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.054223212138641, "coverage": 0.9999977635721778, "baseline_score": 51.271308459835225, "spot_peer_score": 22.0919610645241, "peer_archived_score": 11.054223212138641, "baseline_archived_score": 51.271308459835225, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.0919610645241 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691461368.093743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691461368.093743, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9593507362817604, 0.040649263718239584 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 371, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Ohio Issue 1](https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_Issue_1,_60%25_Vote_Requirement_to_Approve_Constitutional_Amendments_Measure_(2023)) (2023), also called \"the 60% Vote Requirement to Approve Constitutional Amendments Measure\", is on the ballot in Ohio for an election on August 8, 2023.\n\nA \"yes\" vote would amend the Ohio Constitution and increase the voter approval threshold for future constitutional amendments considered via ballot initiative to 60% (whereas currently the threshold is a simple majority of 50%+1). Issue 1 passing would also require citizen-initiated amendment campaigns to collect signatures from each of the state's 88 counties (whereas previously the threshold was only half of the counties) and eliminate a currently authorized 10 day \"cure\"/grace period for addressing invalid signatures. Generally this would make future ballot initiatives much harder to pass.\n\nA \"no\" vote would maintain the status quo." }, { "id": 17791, "title": "Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?", "short_title": "Ukrainian Nuclear Weapons Program?", "url_title": "Ukrainian Nuclear Weapons Program?", "slug": "ukrainian-nuclear-weapons-program", "author_id": 120816, "author_username": "tryingToPredictFuture", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-11T13:26:15.910310Z", "published_at": "2023-09-02T22:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T20:02:44.449151Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-09-02T22:08:00Z", "comment_count": 105, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-09-02T22:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 204, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17791, "title": "Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?", "created_at": "2023-07-11T13:26:15.910310Z", "open_time": "2023-09-02T22:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-09-03T10:14:07.067000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-09-03T10:14:07.067000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Ukraine seeks tangible security guaranties to protect herself from Russia:\n\n- In 1994, Britain, the US, Ukraine, and Russia signed the [Budapest Memorandum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum), which guaranteed the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine surrendering her nuclear weapons.\n\n- The Memorandum [failed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_occupation_of_Crimea) to prevent the occupation of several Ukrainian territories by Russia in 2014. \n\n- [Since 2014](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-parliament-coalition-agreement/26703123.html), Ukraine has been actively seeking to become a NATO member, in hope that it will prevent further military aggression by Russia. \n\n- In 2022, Russia started a large-scale military [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) of Ukraine. During the invasion, Russia has perpetrated a multitude of [war crimes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_crimes_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), forcing the International Criminal Court to issue an [arrest warrant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Vladimir_Putin_and_Maria_Lvova-Belova) for Vladimir Putin. [According](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_genocide_of_Ukrainians_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) to legal scholars and official statements by several countries, Russia is perpetrating a genocide of Ukrainians as an ethnicity.\n\n- Russian officials have several times threatened Ukraine with a nuclear strike (e.g. by Dmitrii [Medvedev](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-warns-west-that-nuclear-threat-is-not-bluff-2022-09-27/)).\n\nUkrainian officials openly stated that a restoration of the Ukrainian nuclear program is the alternative to NATO membership:\n\n- In 2021, Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Melnyk [said](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/ukraine-mulls-nuclear-arms-if-nato-membership-not-impending-envoy) that if Ukraine is not allowed to become a NATO member, Ukraine might have to reconsider its status as a non-nuclear weapon state to guarantee her security\n- in 2022, President Zelenskyy [said](https://uawire.org/zelensky-ukraine-may-reconsider-its-nuclear-status) that without the promised security guarantees according to the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine may reconsider its nuclear status.\n\nUkraine has at least some prerequisites for developing nuclear weapons:\n\n- a developed nuclear energy industry (Ukraine is the [#7](https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryStatisticsLandingPage.aspx) in the world by nuclear energy generation) \n- uranium ore deposits and processing [facilities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Ukraine#Uranium_mining)\n- independent manufacturing of delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic [missiles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsyklon).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are credible reports that Ukraine has a nuclear weapons program before January 1, 2026.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, we consider reports as credible if produced by any of these entities:\n\n- named Ukrainian officials (at the level of a minister or higher)\n- officials of the countries allied with Ukraine (e.g. the US)\n- relevant international agencies (e.g. the International Atomic Energy Agency) \n- major media (e.g. the New York Times).\n\nThe report should not be retracted within a month.", "fine_print": "Credible reports that Ukraine is in *possession* of nuclear weapons will count as \"Yes\" too, regardless of the source of the weapons. But we don't count as possession the cases where the nukes are stationed in Ukraine by another country without giving Ukraine the launch control.\n\nFor purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapons program\" refers to a systematic set of scientific research, technological development, and engineering efforts with the aim of developing, manufacturing, and deploying nuclear weapons. This program may involve multiple facets including but not limited to uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing, warhead design, missile delivery systems, testing procedures, as well as logistical and operational planning for the use of nuclear weapons. For the purposes of this question, we will also consider a weapons program to be a program to deploy nuclear weapons obtained from other countries, as long as those weapons are under Ukraine's ability to command and launch.", "post_id": 17791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762983420.426057, "end_time": 1765093709.068, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762983420.426057, "end_time": 1765093709.068, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.06592063700250088 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.98815852174144, 1.6748123511616984, 0.37746664338910324, 0.04917179295292505, 0.0, 0.003479479546953281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08410645441221705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9413760306912168 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290042.658551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 180, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290042.658551, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 180, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9867111737970757, 0.01328882620292432 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 532, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ukraine seeks tangible security guaranties to protect herself from Russia:\n\n- In 1994, Britain, the US, Ukraine, and Russia signed the [Budapest Memorandum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum), which guaranteed the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine surrendering her nuclear weapons.\n\n- The Memorandum [failed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_occupation_of_Crimea) to prevent the occupation of several Ukrainian territories by Russia in 2014. \n\n- [Since 2014](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-parliament-coalition-agreement/26703123.html), Ukraine has been actively seeking to become a NATO member, in hope that it will prevent further military aggression by Russia. \n\n- In 2022, Russia started a large-scale military [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) of Ukraine. During the invasion, Russia has perpetrated a multitude of [war crimes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_crimes_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), forcing the International Criminal Court to issue an [arrest warrant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Vladimir_Putin_and_Maria_Lvova-Belova) for Vladimir Putin. [According](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_genocide_of_Ukrainians_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) to legal scholars and official statements by several countries, Russia is perpetrating a genocide of Ukrainians as an ethnicity.\n\n- Russian officials have several times threatened Ukraine with a nuclear strike (e.g. by Dmitrii [Medvedev](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-warns-west-that-nuclear-threat-is-not-bluff-2022-09-27/)).\n\nUkrainian officials openly stated that a restoration of the Ukrainian nuclear program is the alternative to NATO membership:\n\n- In 2021, Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Melnyk [said](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/ukraine-mulls-nuclear-arms-if-nato-membership-not-impending-envoy) that if Ukraine is not allowed to become a NATO member, Ukraine might have to reconsider its status as a non-nuclear weapon state to guarantee her security\n- in 2022, President Zelenskyy [said](https://uawire.org/zelensky-ukraine-may-reconsider-its-nuclear-status) that without the promised security guarantees according to the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine may reconsider its nuclear status.\n\nUkraine has at least some prerequisites for developing nuclear weapons:\n\n- a developed nuclear energy industry (Ukraine is the [#7](https://pris.iaea.org/PRIS/CountryStatistics/CountryStatisticsLandingPage.aspx) in the world by nuclear energy generation) \n- uranium ore deposits and processing [facilities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Ukraine#Uranium_mining)\n- independent manufacturing of delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic [missiles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsyklon)." }, { "id": 17777, "title": "Longbets: Will there be archaeological discoveries demonstrating equal or greater architectural advancement to the monuments at Göbekli Tepe, dating from before 11,000 BC by 2043?", "short_title": "Discoveries older than Göbekli Tepe by 2043", "url_title": "Discoveries older than Göbekli Tepe by 2043", "slug": "discoveries-older-than-gobekli-tepe-by-2043", "author_id": 121041, "author_username": "norick", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:08.132088Z", "published_at": "2023-07-12T12:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.435848Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-12T12:58:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2043-06-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-12T12:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17777, "title": "Longbets: Will there be archaeological discoveries demonstrating equal or greater architectural advancement to the monuments at Göbekli Tepe, dating from before 11,000 BC by 2043?", "created_at": "2023-07-10T15:14:08.132088Z", "open_time": "2023-07-12T12:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-14T12:58:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-14T12:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2043-06-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2042-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Samo Burja argues that our current understanding of the origins of civilization is uncertain. The discovery of Göbekli Tepe, which predates our current understanding of the origins of agriculture, suggests that our knowledge is incomplete. In addition, recent finds such as [Ohalo II](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0131422), which shows evidence of small-scale farming dating back 23,000 years, indicate that our understanding of the origins of civilization is still in its early stages.\n\nOn the other hand, Scott Alexander believes that it is unlikely that a new, previously unknown civilization at the level of Pharaonic Egypt or 17th century Great Britain will be discovered. In addition, he believes that there is weak evidence against additional finds of a civilization similar to that of Göbekli Tepe, given that the site is located near the area believed to be the origin of domestication of wheat (Karaca Dag, ~9000 BC).\n\nAdditional Resources:\n\n- [Details of the bet](https://longbets.org/933/)\n\n- [Scott Alexander: Against Ice Age Civilizations](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/against-ice-age-civilizations)\n\n- [Samo Burja: Why Civilization Is Older Than We Thought](https://www.palladiummag.com/2021/05/17/why-civilization-is-older-than-we-thought/)", "resolution_criteria": "As per [LongBets site](https://longbets.org/933/#adjudication_terms): By 2043 there will be archaeological discoveries demonstrating equal or greater architectural advancement to Jericho or the monuments at Göbekli Tepe, dating from before 11,000 BC, with widespread agreement (>50% agreement) by professional archeologists.\n\nIf [The Long Now Foundation](https://longbets.org/faq/) or Long Bets project no longer exist or the bet is no longer valid and evaluated, the question will be evaluated by Metaculus administrators.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17777, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744892375.882941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744892375.882941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.47524267843124335 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6108167385986483, 0.77870555759313, 0.6875093986720957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6688863696625751, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4449274970358478 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287873.482783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287873.482783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5875909420028125, 0.41240905799718747 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Samo Burja argues that our current understanding of the origins of civilization is uncertain. The discovery of Göbekli Tepe, which predates our current understanding of the origins of agriculture, suggests that our knowledge is incomplete. In addition, recent finds such as [Ohalo II](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0131422), which shows evidence of small-scale farming dating back 23,000 years, indicate that our understanding of the origins of civilization is still in its early stages.\n\nOn the other hand, Scott Alexander believes that it is unlikely that a new, previously unknown civilization at the level of Pharaonic Egypt or 17th century Great Britain will be discovered. In addition, he believes that there is weak evidence against additional finds of a civilization similar to that of Göbekli Tepe, given that the site is located near the area believed to be the origin of domestication of wheat (Karaca Dag, ~9000 BC).\n\nAdditional Resources:\n\n- [Details of the bet](https://longbets.org/933/)\n\n- [Scott Alexander: Against Ice Age Civilizations](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/against-ice-age-civilizations)\n\n- [Samo Burja: Why Civilization Is Older Than We Thought](https://www.palladiummag.com/2021/05/17/why-civilization-is-older-than-we-thought/)" }, { "id": 17772, "title": "Will Russia successfully land on the Moon with their first attempt?", "short_title": "Russia landing on Moon with the first attempt", "url_title": "Russia landing on Moon with the first attempt", "slug": "russia-landing-on-moon-with-the-first-attempt", "author_id": 110217, "author_username": "michal_dubrawski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-08T20:50:11.920912Z", "published_at": "2023-07-15T22:03:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.093323Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-15T22:03:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-20T08:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-20T08:50:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-15T22:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17772, "title": "Will Russia successfully land on the Moon with their first attempt?", "created_at": "2023-07-08T20:50:11.920912Z", "open_time": "2023-07-15T22:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-16T18:33:47.483560Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-16T18:33:47.483560Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-20T08:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-20T08:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-20T08:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Luna-25](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25) mission is a planned lunar lander mission by Roscosmos. If everything goes according to the plan it will land near the lunar south pole near the Boguslavsky crater. Luna-25 is currently scheduled to be launched in August this year. The primary mission of Luna-25 is to prove the landing technology. The mission will carry 30 kg (66 lb) of scientific instruments, including a robotic arm for soil samples and possible drilling hardware.\n\nThe first human-made object to touch the Moon was the Soviet Union's [Luna 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_2), on 13 September 1959. The final Soviet mission to the Moon was launched on Aug. 9, 1976, under the official name [Luna-24](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_24). Luna-24 became the 11th Soviet attempt to return samples of the lunar soil back to Earth with a robotic probe and the third successful mission concluding the entire program.\n\nThe USA is to date the only country which landed astronauts on the Moon, but [the last US Moon landing was 7 December 1972](https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/lunar/apolloland.html), so more than 50 years ago. NASA plans to return to the Moon have experienced delays, and [Artemis 3 mission -the first crewed Moon landing mission in Artemis programme is currently scheduled to launch in December 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3), but there are already [speculations about further delays](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-problems-delay-artemis-3-2026).\n\nIn recent years, several [countries and private companies have attempted to land softly on the moon with unmanned landers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon), but only [China has succeeded so far - for the first time on 14 December 2013 with Chang'e 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program). [Currently, China appears to be accelerating its plans to land its astronauts on the Moon by 2030](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/world/asia/china-space-moon-2030.html). India plans to give landing on the moon a second try with its [Chandrayaan 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, which [has already launched on 14 July 2023 and the landing on the Moon is planned for 23 August 2023](https://www.nalandaopenuniversity.com/chandrayaan-3-launch-date-watch-live/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Russia successfully lands on the Moon with their first attempt. As a first attempt, we count the first mission to achieve liftoff with a lunar lander on board and the stated intention to land the lander on the moon. This will be considered the \"first attempt\" even if Roscosmos decides at any point not to attempt the landing. \n\nIf there is a failure preventing liftoff from happening it will count as a failure of the mission and the question will resolve as **No** only if the spaceship or lander are destroyed or lost. If the launch is aborted or if there is a malfunction preventing the rocket from launching, but this first spaceship and first lander are intact and will be used in another launch, this next launch will still count as the first attempt. \n\nThe lander must touch the ground in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage all of its systems to the point of being inoperable. If some but not all systems are damaged during the landing, but the lander can still perform some of its tasks with its onboard equipment and Roscosmos is able to communicate with the lander after the landing, then it will qualify as a successful landing and the question will resolve **Yes**.\n\nThe landing must be confirmed by credible media sources.\n\nThis question resolves **No** if Russia’s first attempt to land on the Moon fails.", "fine_print": "In the unlikely case of Roscosmos or any Russian officials claiming that the landing was successful but this claim is being challenged by other countries' space agencies or by credible media sources, then the question will resolve ambiguously unless Metaculus Admins decide that the evidence provided by one side is proof which removes any reasonable doubt (something like NASA images of the crashed lander or images of the intact lander taken from orbit or from the surface of the Moon taken by the lander if their authenticity is independently confirmed).", "post_id": 17772, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692529101.365746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692529101.365746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05189894396744612 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.910968776959082, 6.342605526620854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2875923504881499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5177672290304445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3560425336926011, 0.0, 0.1711062530076502, 0.08934416393676485, 0.32083342832896045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15940661153461455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038921392209996956, 0.015647966249753037, 0.0, 0.1847461188535056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06272559655183406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019377820149315656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05209383699272445, 0.11627696215687117, 0.0, 0.08194978439761934, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0163259603251742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03383031088652573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07106550319154113, 0.0, 0.052233954710765335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007128701647650959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04735613841724687, 0.0, 0.0061954904951238765, 0.0044369675217058565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.048448954349487594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007229492341188671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0459804632972468, "coverage": 0.005552325565112167, "baseline_score": -0.1872380140680705, "spot_peer_score": 22.78815152941878, "peer_archived_score": 0.0459804632972468, "baseline_archived_score": -0.1872380140680705, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.78815152941878 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1692517456.558622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1692517456.558622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8265464228232404, 0.1734535771767596 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Luna-25](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25) mission is a planned lunar lander mission by Roscosmos. If everything goes according to the plan it will land near the lunar south pole near the Boguslavsky crater. Luna-25 is currently scheduled to be launched in August this year. The primary mission of Luna-25 is to prove the landing technology. The mission will carry 30 kg (66 lb) of scientific instruments, including a robotic arm for soil samples and possible drilling hardware.\n\nThe first human-made object to touch the Moon was the Soviet Union's [Luna 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_2), on 13 September 1959. The final Soviet mission to the Moon was launched on Aug. 9, 1976, under the official name [Luna-24](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_24). Luna-24 became the 11th Soviet attempt to return samples of the lunar soil back to Earth with a robotic probe and the third successful mission concluding the entire program.\n\nThe USA is to date the only country which landed astronauts on the Moon, but [the last US Moon landing was 7 December 1972](https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/lunar/apolloland.html), so more than 50 years ago. NASA plans to return to the Moon have experienced delays, and [Artemis 3 mission -the first crewed Moon landing mission in Artemis programme is currently scheduled to launch in December 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3), but there are already [speculations about further delays](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-problems-delay-artemis-3-2026).\n\nIn recent years, several [countries and private companies have attempted to land softly on the moon with unmanned landers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_the_Moon), but only [China has succeeded so far - for the first time on 14 December 2013 with Chang'e 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program). [Currently, China appears to be accelerating its plans to land its astronauts on the Moon by 2030](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/world/asia/china-space-moon-2030.html). India plans to give landing on the moon a second try with its [Chandrayaan 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan-3) mission, which [has already launched on 14 July 2023 and the landing on the Moon is planned for 23 August 2023](https://www.nalandaopenuniversity.com/chandrayaan-3-launch-date-watch-live/)." }, { "id": 17771, "title": "Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?", "short_title": "Three Months Of Safety Evals on Gemini", "url_title": "Three Months Of Safety Evals on Gemini", "slug": "three-months-of-safety-evals-on-gemini", "author_id": 119639, "author_username": "Jide", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-08T17:57:39.433126Z", "published_at": "2023-07-19T23:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.458955Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-19T23:45:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-06T23:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-06T23:52:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T23:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:57:13.018561Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2345, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI Safety", "slug": "ai-safety", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/ai-safety.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:57:13.018561Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17771, "title": "Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?", "created_at": "2023-07-08T17:57:39.433126Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T23:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-21T23:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-21T23:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-06T23:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-06T23:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-06T23:52:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google DeepMind is an AI lab and subsidiary of Alphabet - best known for creating AlphaGo, the first AI system to defeat a professional Go player. DeepMind is currently developing a new AI system called Gemini which CEO Demis Hassabis [claims](https://www.wired.com/story/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis-chatgpt/) will be even more capable than OpenAI’s latest state-of-the-art model, GPT-4. Gemini is still training, and is currently months away from completion according to Hassabis.\n\nRecently, OpenAI delayed releasing their new model for 6 months in order to conduct safety evaluations and risk assessments using third party auditors. They [cited](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf) “acceleration risk” - the possibility of a decline in safety standards and accelerated timelines leading to increased societal risks from AI - as a key reason for the delay and testing. They strongly encouraged other labs like DeepMind to follow their lead.\n\nIndependent groups like the Alignment Research Center (ARC) specialize in auditing and evaluating advanced AI systems to assess potentially dangerous capabilities, focusing specifically on the ability to autonomously gain resources and evade human oversight. They believe rigorous testing is necessary before models become too capable, and hope more AI labs will adopt their “red team” evaluation approach. While today’s models are not very capable on their own, ARC warns this could change quickly.\n\nGiven OpenAI’s warning about acceleration risk, their call for AI labs to delay model releases to conduct safety evaluations, and the work of groups like ARC specifically focused on auditing advanced AI for dangerous capabilities, it’s possible that DeepMind would follow their advice and conduct similar third party safety evaluations before Gemini is deployed. If DeepMind mentions giving external groups access to evaluate Gemini for safety before deployment, it would suggest they are taking OpenAI and ARC’s recommendations seriously in order to ensure their system is not able to become destructively autonomous.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively Google DeepMind issues a statement on their blog, in an official paper, or in a media statement, on or before the release of their Gemini model, mentioning that they have given one or more third parties access to Gemini for the purpose of conducting safety evaluations and risk assessments for at least 3 months.\n\nThe statement should specifically refer to evaluating Gemini's capabilities to ensure it cannot act in dangerous or destructive ways. A vague or passing mention of safety practices or ethics research in progress will not be sufficient.\n\nThe 3rd party evaluation does not need to be published in order for this question to resolve **Yes**. If no such statement is made by Google or DeepMind within 30 days of Gemini’s release, this question resolves **No.**\n\nIf Google DeepMind does not release a model called or previously referred to as “Gemini” before August 1, 2024, this question will resolve **Ambiguous**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17771, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706108374.503782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706108374.503782, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.50873422247764 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47782754212721157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 1.1911861039918206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.989092659067672, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30150252539328987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16692841638394568, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23746466381188802, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.4761233785323521, "coverage": 0.45459383288737565, "baseline_score": -26.190197915007186, "spot_peer_score": 2.9947793650524552, "peer_archived_score": -0.4761233785323521, "baseline_archived_score": -26.190197915007186, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.9947793650524552 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704440719.378648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704440719.378648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7880799846865612, 0.2119200153134389 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google DeepMind is an AI lab and subsidiary of Alphabet - best known for creating AlphaGo, the first AI system to defeat a professional Go player. DeepMind is currently developing a new AI system called Gemini which CEO Demis Hassabis [claims](https://www.wired.com/story/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis-chatgpt/) will be even more capable than OpenAI’s latest state-of-the-art model, GPT-4. Gemini is still training, and is currently months away from completion according to Hassabis.\n\nRecently, OpenAI delayed releasing their new model for 6 months in order to conduct safety evaluations and risk assessments using third party auditors. They [cited](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf) “acceleration risk” - the possibility of a decline in safety standards and accelerated timelines leading to increased societal risks from AI - as a key reason for the delay and testing. They strongly encouraged other labs like DeepMind to follow their lead.\n\nIndependent groups like the Alignment Research Center (ARC) specialize in auditing and evaluating advanced AI systems to assess potentially dangerous capabilities, focusing specifically on the ability to autonomously gain resources and evade human oversight. They believe rigorous testing is necessary before models become too capable, and hope more AI labs will adopt their “red team” evaluation approach. While today’s models are not very capable on their own, ARC warns this could change quickly.\n\nGiven OpenAI’s warning about acceleration risk, their call for AI labs to delay model releases to conduct safety evaluations, and the work of groups like ARC specifically focused on auditing advanced AI for dangerous capabilities, it’s possible that DeepMind would follow their advice and conduct similar third party safety evaluations before Gemini is deployed. If DeepMind mentions giving external groups access to evaluate Gemini for safety before deployment, it would suggest they are taking OpenAI and ARC’s recommendations seriously in order to ensure their system is not able to become destructively autonomous." }, { "id": 17769, "title": "Will carbon removal be a trillion-dollar market before 2050?", "short_title": "Carbon Removal $1 Trillion Business by 2050?", "url_title": "Carbon Removal $1 Trillion Business by 2050?", "slug": "carbon-removal-1-trillion-business-by-2050", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-08T00:17:49.862620Z", "published_at": "2023-07-15T22:05:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T05:43:46.631134Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-15T22:05:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-15T22:05:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17769, "title": "Will carbon removal be a trillion-dollar market before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-07-08T00:17:49.862620Z", "open_time": "2023-07-15T22:05:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-17T19:15:57.813025Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-17T19:15:57.813025Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "To approach net-zero emissions, the world may need to [rapidly scale up carbon removal technologies](https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/carbon-removal/the-birth-of-the-carbon-removal-market/).\n\nOn May 21st, 2023, The Economist asked \"[Can carbon removal become a trillion-dollar business?](https://www.economist.com/business/2023/05/21/can-carbon-removal-become-a-trillion-dollar-business).\" The article reported on an analysis from ExxonMobil:\n\n> In April ExxonMobil unveiled plans for its newish low-carbon division, whose long-term goal is to offer such decarbonisation as a service for industrial customers in sectors, like steel and cement, where emissions are otherwise hard to abate. The oil giant thinks this sector could be raking in annual revenues of $6trn globally by 2050.\n\nCurrent estimates of the carbon removal market range from to [$485 million](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/04/04/2640380/0/en/Carbon-Dioxide-Removal-Market-Growing-Immensely-at-a-17-73-CAGR-from-2023-2031-Exclusive-InsightAce-Report.html) to [$5.99 billion](https://www.precedenceresearch.com/carbon-capture-and-storage-market#:~:text=The%20global%20carbon%20capture%20and%20storage%20market%20size%20was%20accounted,USD%2035.70%20billion%20by%202032.). Some analyses have concluded that a $1 trillion market is [plausible](https://greatunwind.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollar-carbon-removal).", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if two credible reports state the current size of the global carbon removal market exceeds $1 trillion in nominal US dollars, prior to January 1, 2051.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17769, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760593415.913444, "end_time": 1772974664.481241, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.173692748 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760593415.913444, "end_time": 1772974664.481241, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.173692748 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.33803019553554503 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288697.652832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288697.652832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7862590879782173, 0.21374091202178272 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "To approach net-zero emissions, the world may need to [rapidly scale up carbon removal technologies](https://www.energymonitor.ai/tech/carbon-removal/the-birth-of-the-carbon-removal-market/).\n\nOn May 21st, 2023, The Economist asked \"[Can carbon removal become a trillion-dollar business?](https://www.economist.com/business/2023/05/21/can-carbon-removal-become-a-trillion-dollar-business).\" The article reported on an analysis from ExxonMobil:\n\n> In April ExxonMobil unveiled plans for its newish low-carbon division, whose long-term goal is to offer such decarbonisation as a service for industrial customers in sectors, like steel and cement, where emissions are otherwise hard to abate. The oil giant thinks this sector could be raking in annual revenues of $6trn globally by 2050.\n\nCurrent estimates of the carbon removal market range from to [$485 million](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/04/04/2640380/0/en/Carbon-Dioxide-Removal-Market-Growing-Immensely-at-a-17-73-CAGR-from-2023-2031-Exclusive-InsightAce-Report.html) to [$5.99 billion](https://www.precedenceresearch.com/carbon-capture-and-storage-market#:~:text=The%20global%20carbon%20capture%20and%20storage%20market%20size%20was%20accounted,USD%2035.70%20billion%20by%202032.). Some analyses have concluded that a $1 trillion market is [plausible](https://greatunwind.substack.com/p/a-trillion-dollar-carbon-removal)." }, { "id": 17768, "title": "Will it be confirmed that Lee Harvey Oswald acted with co-conspirators in the assassination of President Kennedy before November 23, 2063?", "short_title": "JFK Conspiracy Confirmed Before a Century?", "url_title": "JFK Conspiracy Confirmed Before a Century?", "slug": "jfk-conspiracy-confirmed-before-a-century", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T23:51:55.375120Z", "published_at": "2023-08-28T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T21:05:27.363628Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-08-28T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2063-11-22T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2063-11-23T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-08-28T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17768, "title": "Will it be confirmed that Lee Harvey Oswald acted with co-conspirators in the assassination of President Kennedy before November 23, 2063?", "created_at": "2023-07-07T23:51:55.375120Z", "open_time": "2023-08-28T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-08-30T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-08-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2063-11-23T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2063-11-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2063-11-22T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US President John F. Kennedy's assassination on November 22nd, 1963 has long been the subject of numerous [conspiracy theories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy_assassination_conspiracy_theories) The [majority of Americans](http://www.gallup.com/poll/165893/majority-believe-jfk-killed-conspiracy.aspx) believe in one or more of these conspiracies, however nothing has yet been definitively proven. To this day, government records [continue to be declassified.](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/national-archives-completes-review-jfk-assassination-documents-99-publicly-available-white-house)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are official statements from the US government or a media consensus of credible allegations—before November 23nd, 2063—confirming that there was a second shooter at the scene of President Kennedy's death and that the second shooter was working with Lee Harvey Oswald, or confirming that Oswald was the lone shooter but had planned the assassination with one or more co-conspirators.\n\nA media consensus of credible allegations will be defined for the purposes of this question as reports (excluding opinion pieces) from three of the five sources listed below describing credible allegations supported by substantial evidence:\n\n* The New York Times\n* The Washington Post\n* Fox News\n* CNN\n* The New York Post", "fine_print": "* If it is confirmed that there was a second shooter but not that they were working with Oswald, the question will resolve Ambiguous.\n* Official US government statements will be considered to be those made in an official capacity on behalf of the US government or a US government agency. Remarks or statements from politicians or officials will not qualify unless they are made in an official capacity.\n* In the event one or more of the listed media sources ceases to exist or is estimated by Metaculus to reach one tenth or less of US consumers as it did in 2023 then Metaculus may replace that media source with a then-prominent credible source.", "post_id": 17768, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762031117.13119, "end_time": 1820352518.253418, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0135010872 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.124 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762031117.13119, "end_time": 1820352518.253418, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0135010872 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.124 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.14003067860401316 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9827397688071073, 1.3580720147861354, 1.0, 0.0, 0.3429345261700073, 1.2764731925229218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 1.0525464012883334, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287796.813465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287796.813465, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9531294810322983, 0.04687051896770163 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US President John F. Kennedy's assassination on November 22nd, 1963 has long been the subject of numerous [conspiracy theories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy_assassination_conspiracy_theories) The [majority of Americans](http://www.gallup.com/poll/165893/majority-believe-jfk-killed-conspiracy.aspx) believe in one or more of these conspiracies, however nothing has yet been definitively proven. To this day, government records [continue to be declassified.](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/national-archives-completes-review-jfk-assassination-documents-99-publicly-available-white-house)" }, { "id": 17767, "title": "Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?", "short_title": "Luna-25 launched before September 2, 2023", "url_title": "Luna-25 launched before September 2, 2023", "slug": "luna-25-launched-before-september-2-2023", "author_id": 110217, "author_username": "michal_dubrawski", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T22:25:01.271278Z", "published_at": "2023-07-10T12:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.439676Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-10T12:47:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-08-10T23:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-10T23:10:00Z", "open_time": "2023-07-10T12:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17767, "title": "Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-07-07T22:25:01.271278Z", "open_time": "2023-07-10T12:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-12T09:35:59.747670Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-12T09:35:59.747670Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-08-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-08-10T23:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-08-10T23:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-08-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-08-10T23:10:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Luna-25](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25) is a planned lunar lander mission by the Russian space agency Roscosmos. If it succeeds, it will land in the lunar South Pole region near the Boguslavsky crater. \n\nAs [the Russian-language Wikipedia article about Luna-25](https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B0-25) says (translation by Google Translate):\n\n>The purpose of this project is to launch an automatic probe, the orbital part of which should carry out remote research and select suitable sites for subsequent descent vehicles, and the lander will explore the surface in the South Pole region , including cryogenic drilling to a depth of two meters (the main task is to search for water ).\n\nLuna-25 is the first lunar mission by Russia after the Soviet times. The last in the series of pioneering Soviet robotic lunar missions was Luna-24, which sent about 170 grams of moon material back to Earth in 1976. \n\nLuna-25 will launch atop a [Soyuz-2.1b rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz-2), which in recent years has been very reliable.\n\nThe mission is currently set to launch from [Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostochny_Cosmodrome) on [August 11, 2023](https://tass.com/science/1627981), which is 47 years after Luna-24. \n\n__The mission launch was delayed multiple times in the past__ (see the table below which is translated by Google Translate from the Wikipedia article about Luna-25 in Russian). [Last time this happened at the end of May when the launch was moved from July to August](https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/91003/#:~:text=2023%2021%3A11-,Luna%2025%20spacecraft%20launch%20postponed%20till%20August%20due%20to%20additional,infrastructure%2C%20Roscosmos%20said%20on%20Tuesday.). \n\n\n[](Translation by Google Translate from the Wikipedia article about Luna-25 in Russian)\nSource: [Wikipedia](https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B0-25), translation from Russian by Google Translate\n\n__Because of the delays in the past this question asks if they will launch the mission in the current launch window, which is July to August__, however, the launch on September 1st local time for Vostochny Cosmodrome will still resolve the question as \"Yes\", if Luna-25 will reach Earth's orbit.\n\nFrom the [recent video interview with Yuri Borisov, General Director of Roscosmos from 16th of June]( https://smotrim.ru/video/2633940) (automated translation based on automated transcription):\n\n>Well, to begin with, the interest in the Moon arose after the possibility of water extraction was identified. If there is water, it means there is life and we can organize, including on the planets, a new station and think about industrial use of lunar resources. This is why interest in the Moon has been aroused recently, not only in our country, but in a number of other countries as well. We are actually, after a long break, 46 years to be exact, going back to the Lunar Program, Luna 25, which is our project to put a landing on the Moon. An automatic station at the South Pole. Taking soil and conducting a number of scientific experiments. Preparations for the launch are proceeding as planned. We actually had to postpone the launch from July 11 and move it to August. __We cannot postpone it any further, unfortunately. The launch windows are the way the ballistics of reaching the Moon is set up.__ You know, this is a very responsible procedure, a soft landing. And so, of course, the experiment is quite expensive, you had to verify everything. You have probably heard that last year we refused because the personal characteristics of the laser number did not suit us and could lead to negative consequences. This experiment we postponed it. __Now all the major technical difficulties have been overcome. According to the latest information, all the mathematical modelling, and we are doing almost a simulation, all the landings are going according to plan, preparations are underway to deliver the satellite to the launch site. And we hope that the launch will take place in August.__\n\n\nMore recently, on June 30th, [Russian media](https://tass.ru/kosmos/18164233) quoted Borisov reporting the mission's chances of success to Putin (automatic translation from Russian with Google Translate):\n\n>Borisov said that the success of missions similar to Luna-25 is 70%\n\n>According to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances\n\n\n>MOSCOW, 30 June. /TASS/. The success of missions similar to the launch of the Luna-25 automatic apparatus in the world is 70%. This was reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin by the head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov on Friday.\n\n>“We are especially looking forward to the launch of a scientific satellite. We are returning to the Moon <…>. This mission involves landing in the South Pole region, no one in the world has ever done such things <…>. missions are estimated at about 70%,\" Borisov said.\n\n>According to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances. \"I would like it (the mission - TASS note) to be successful,\" the general director of the state corporation stressed.\n\n>The first domestic device in modern Russia, which will go to the natural satellite of the Earth, should be the automatic station \"Luna-25\". The purpose of the project is to send an automatic probe for research in the region of the south pole of the moon. It is planned that the module will be landed near the Boguslavsky crater. Earlier, the press service of Roscosmos told journalists that the launch of the mission was postponed from July to August in order to achieve the required reliability of its implementation.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"Yes\", if credible media report that Luna-25 has successfully reached Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023. Further success or failure of the mission (like reaching the Moon's orbit or succeeding with a soft landing) is irrelevant to this question's resolution.\n\nIf the launch is delayed again beyond this question resolution deadline or cancelled, the question resolves as \"No\".\n\nIf any failure during the launch prevents Luna-25 from reaching Earth's orbit, this question resolves as \"No\".", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691773629.584013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691773629.584013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9514234955823289 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020655434800179992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03365548811464179, 0.15268751507979428, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028841894683954285, 0.039003561466750214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18119093168767203, 0.017206765638407475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31967846996806076, 0.25108640973493557, 0.07538866801196019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019162154548036204, 0.04492986066620649, 0.0, 0.14772949571888752, 0.36383181363265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22045724352962418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6999018170090472, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.09543546787520314, 9.060255819686445 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.1961510017078885, "coverage": 0.5983868879021028, "baseline_score": 24.897575268125088, "spot_peer_score": -16.675851653379127, "peer_archived_score": 5.1961510017078885, "baseline_archived_score": 24.897575268125088, "spot_peer_archived_score": -16.675851653379127 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1691696058.200288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1691696058.200288, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19290450437077145, 0.8070954956292286 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Luna-25](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luna_25) is a planned lunar lander mission by the Russian space agency Roscosmos. If it succeeds, it will land in the lunar South Pole region near the Boguslavsky crater. \n\nAs [the Russian-language Wikipedia article about Luna-25](https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B0-25) says (translation by Google Translate):\n\n>The purpose of this project is to launch an automatic probe, the orbital part of which should carry out remote research and select suitable sites for subsequent descent vehicles, and the lander will explore the surface in the South Pole region , including cryogenic drilling to a depth of two meters (the main task is to search for water ).\n\nLuna-25 is the first lunar mission by Russia after the Soviet times. The last in the series of pioneering Soviet robotic lunar missions was Luna-24, which sent about 170 grams of moon material back to Earth in 1976. \n\nLuna-25 will launch atop a [Soyuz-2.1b rocket](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soyuz-2), which in recent years has been very reliable.\n\nThe mission is currently set to launch from [Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostochny_Cosmodrome) on [August 11, 2023](https://tass.com/science/1627981), which is 47 years after Luna-24. \n\n__The mission launch was delayed multiple times in the past__ (see the table below which is translated by Google Translate from the Wikipedia article about Luna-25 in Russian). [Last time this happened at the end of May when the launch was moved from July to August](https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/91003/#:~:text=2023%2021%3A11-,Luna%2025%20spacecraft%20launch%20postponed%20till%20August%20due%20to%20additional,infrastructure%2C%20Roscosmos%20said%20on%20Tuesday.). \n\n\n[](Translation by Google Translate from the Wikipedia article about Luna-25 in Russian)\nSource: [Wikipedia](https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9B%D1%83%D0%BD%D0%B0-25), translation from Russian by Google Translate\n\n__Because of the delays in the past this question asks if they will launch the mission in the current launch window, which is July to August__, however, the launch on September 1st local time for Vostochny Cosmodrome will still resolve the question as \"Yes\", if Luna-25 will reach Earth's orbit.\n\nFrom the [recent video interview with Yuri Borisov, General Director of Roscosmos from 16th of June]( https://smotrim.ru/video/2633940) (automated translation based on automated transcription):\n\n>Well, to begin with, the interest in the Moon arose after the possibility of water extraction was identified. If there is water, it means there is life and we can organize, including on the planets, a new station and think about industrial use of lunar resources. This is why interest in the Moon has been aroused recently, not only in our country, but in a number of other countries as well. We are actually, after a long break, 46 years to be exact, going back to the Lunar Program, Luna 25, which is our project to put a landing on the Moon. An automatic station at the South Pole. Taking soil and conducting a number of scientific experiments. Preparations for the launch are proceeding as planned. We actually had to postpone the launch from July 11 and move it to August. __We cannot postpone it any further, unfortunately. The launch windows are the way the ballistics of reaching the Moon is set up.__ You know, this is a very responsible procedure, a soft landing. And so, of course, the experiment is quite expensive, you had to verify everything. You have probably heard that last year we refused because the personal characteristics of the laser number did not suit us and could lead to negative consequences. This experiment we postponed it. __Now all the major technical difficulties have been overcome. According to the latest information, all the mathematical modelling, and we are doing almost a simulation, all the landings are going according to plan, preparations are underway to deliver the satellite to the launch site. And we hope that the launch will take place in August.__\n\n\nMore recently, on June 30th, [Russian media](https://tass.ru/kosmos/18164233) quoted Borisov reporting the mission's chances of success to Putin (automatic translation from Russian with Google Translate):\n\n>Borisov said that the success of missions similar to Luna-25 is 70%\n\n>According to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances\n\n\n>MOSCOW, 30 June. /TASS/. The success of missions similar to the launch of the Luna-25 automatic apparatus in the world is 70%. This was reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin by the head of Roscosmos Yuri Borisov on Friday.\n\n>“We are especially looking forward to the launch of a scientific satellite. We are returning to the Moon <…>. This mission involves landing in the South Pole region, no one in the world has ever done such things <…>. missions are estimated at about 70%,\" Borisov said.\n\n>According to the head of Roscosmos, landing simulations are being intensively carried out at the moment in order to eliminate all the nuances. \"I would like it (the mission - TASS note) to be successful,\" the general director of the state corporation stressed.\n\n>The first domestic device in modern Russia, which will go to the natural satellite of the Earth, should be the automatic station \"Luna-25\". The purpose of the project is to send an automatic probe for research in the region of the south pole of the moon. It is planned that the module will be landed near the Boguslavsky crater. Earlier, the press service of Roscosmos told journalists that the launch of the mission was postponed from July to August in order to achieve the required reliability of its implementation.\"" }, { "id": 17764, "title": "Will the state of Missouri implement approval voting before 2030?", "short_title": "Missouri Approval Voting Before 2030?", "url_title": "Missouri Approval Voting Before 2030?", "slug": "missouri-approval-voting-before-2030", "author_id": 129317, "author_username": "Ibozz91", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-07-07T12:49:14.625833Z", "published_at": "2023-07-19T00:08:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T08:19:25.594686Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-07-19T00:08:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-07T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-07-19T00:08:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 17764, "title": "Will the state of Missouri implement approval voting before 2030?", "created_at": "2023-07-07T12:49:14.625833Z", "open_time": "2023-07-19T00:08:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-07-21T00:08:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-07-21T00:08:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-07T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Missouri Agrees campaign](https://www.missouriagrees.org/) is attempting to bring approval voting (under the name “Freedom Voting”) to the state of Missouri, as well as some other election reforms.\n\nApproval voting is a voting system that allows a voter to cast a vote for multiple candidates. The candidate with the most votes cast for them wins.\n\n[According to Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Approval_Voting_Initiative_(2022)) a petition to initiate approval voting as a constitutional amendment was started in Missouri in late 2021, but did not receive the signatures required by the deadline in May of 2022. However, [the Missouri Agrees campaign continues to push for approval voting](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/st-louis/news/2023/01/13/missouri-political-notebook). The city of St. Louis, Missouri, has implemented approval voting, [first used in its March 2, 2021, election](https://electionscience.org/press-releases/st-louis-voters-use-new-approval-voting-system-in-march-primary-election/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the state of Missouri has implemented approval voting and held a general election using approval voting for any of the following offices:\n\n* Statewide offices (e.g. governor or attorney general)\n* Missouri General Assembly\n* US Congress", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 17764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763374885.138616, "end_time": 1766319131.379825, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08980970690073085 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763374885.138616, "end_time": 1766319131.379825, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08980970690073085 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9101902930992691, 0.08980970690073085 ], "means": [ 0.10372589260051036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.7064993787569234, 0.0, 0.6554110117958545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290066.473467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290066.473467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9509493456886566, 0.04905065431134335 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Missouri Agrees campaign](https://www.missouriagrees.org/) is attempting to bring approval voting (under the name “Freedom Voting”) to the state of Missouri, as well as some other election reforms.\n\nApproval voting is a voting system that allows a voter to cast a vote for multiple candidates. The candidate with the most votes cast for them wins.\n\n[According to Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Approval_Voting_Initiative_(2022)) a petition to initiate approval voting as a constitutional amendment was started in Missouri in late 2021, but did not receive the signatures required by the deadline in May of 2022. However, [the Missouri Agrees campaign continues to push for approval voting](https://spectrumlocalnews.com/mo/st-louis/news/2023/01/13/missouri-political-notebook). The city of St. Louis, Missouri, has implemented approval voting, [first used in its March 2, 2021, election](https://electionscience.org/press-releases/st-louis-voters-use-new-approval-voting-system-in-march-primary-election/)." } ] }
](Translation](http://text](https://i.imgur.com/gJybHVa.png)](Translation){kind=link}