Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=3560
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"2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 418, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2016, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2023 Prediction Contest", "slug": "2023-contest", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022-12-21_at_12.05.13_PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-21T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-30T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-02T05:06:28.757115Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13930, "title": "On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?", "created_at": "2022-12-09T00:53:21.729214Z", "open_time": "2022-12-22T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-01-12T13:39:28.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/)\n\n----", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve at the exclusive authority of [Scott Alexander](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) in his 2023 prediction contest. More information about the contest can be found [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest).\n\nPredictions on Metaculus will only count for your Metaculus track record; they will not be evaluated by Scott Alexander", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13930, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704057582.887412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 418, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704057582.887412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 418, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0040000000000000036, 0.996 ], "means": [ 0.9918522978054426 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.1960509942413806e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038003651783917426, 0.011736539139349904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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0.009148678047056012, 0.0820850184896237, 0.100948459015761, 0.3749956291178475, 0.15090819507863493, 0.14962170980940603, 1.4966848442594383, 36.6557145842834 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.123622673937533, "coverage": 0.999735998480653, "baseline_score": 88.04563713155848, "spot_peer_score": 12.31931196053214, "peer_archived_score": 11.123622673937533, "baseline_archived_score": 88.04563713155848, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.31931196053214 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704057582.935967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 418, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704057582.935967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 418, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.004815626891917502, 0.9951843731080825 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1330, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4799/when-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-hold-the-office-of-president-of-russia/)\n\n----" }, { "id": 13929, "title": "Will the US phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2030?", "short_title": "Country Caps on US Visas End by 2030", "url_title": "Country Caps on US Visas End by 2030", "slug": "country-caps-on-us-visas-end-by-2030", "author_id": 108770, "author_username": "Matthew_Barnett", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-08T22:12:46.991518Z", "published_at": "2022-12-11T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T18:42:23.245727Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-11T08:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-11T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 13929, "title": "Will the US phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-12-08T22:12:46.991518Z", "open_time": "2022-12-11T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-13T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-13T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8835/country-caps-on-us-visas-end-by-2025/)\n\n----\n\nIn the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. For countries such as China and India, this means there are backlogs that can exceed the lifetime of an applicant.\n\nThe proposed [2021 EAGLE Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3648) would have [removed the 7% per-country cap](https://immigrationforum.org/article/bill-summary-the-eagle-act/) for employment-based visas. The bill would also raise per-country caps for family-based green card petitions from 7% to 15%. This question is focused on the employment-based visa per-country limit.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if per-country caps on employment-based visas to the US are phased out before January 1, 2030, according to the US government or credible media reports.\n\nPositive resolution does not require changing the overall 140k limit on all countries in sum, only the removal of the per-country cap on employment-based visas. \n\nIt also does not require other types of visas to have their country-caps changed or removed", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13929, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758393733.066239, "end_time": 1759998823.739942, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.1755887866 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2212983719846593 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758393733.066239, "end_time": 1759998823.739942, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.1755887866 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2212983719846593 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8244112134, 0.1755887866 ], "means": [ 0.1542149664835605 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.5112618060922339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289258.306499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289258.306499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9026920165879425, 0.09730798341205747 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8835/country-caps-on-us-visas-end-by-2025/)\n\n----\n\nIn the U.S., immigration visas are limited to 140k per year. Of those, a maximum of 7% from the same country are permitted. For countries such as China and India, this means there are backlogs that can exceed the lifetime of an applicant.\n\nThe proposed [2021 EAGLE Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3648) would have [removed the 7% per-country cap](https://immigrationforum.org/article/bill-summary-the-eagle-act/) for employment-based visas. The bill would also raise per-country caps for family-based green card petitions from 7% to 15%. This question is focused on the employment-based visa per-country limit." }, { "id": 13924, "title": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?", "short_title": "200 bronzes of Brit.Museum to Nigeria by 2030", "url_title": "200 bronzes of Brit.Museum to Nigeria by 2030", "slug": "200-bronzes-of-britmuseum-to-nigeria-by-2030", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-08T16:09:18.690442Z", "published_at": "2023-05-30T02:17:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.628059Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-05-30T02:17:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-05-30T02:17:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13924, "title": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-12-08T16:09:18.690442Z", "open_time": "2023-05-30T02:17:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-06-01T02:17:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-06-01T02:17:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves as **Yes** if at least 200 Benin bronzes that were formerly owned by the British Museum physically return to Nigeria before 2030.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13924, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756282117.14755, "end_time": 1760589408.41499, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756282117.14755, "end_time": 1760589408.41499, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.32057653293980154 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.80932673141601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129243144556356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287212.179872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287212.179872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7831408556230443, 0.21685914437695578 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections." }, { "id": 13922, "title": "Will Australia enter a recession before 2026?", "short_title": "Australia to enter recession before 2026", "url_title": "Australia to enter recession before 2026", "slug": "australia-to-enter-recession-before-2026", "author_id": 116468, "author_username": "chrisjbillington", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-08T05:24:27.179231Z", "published_at": "2022-12-12T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T00:51:57.437713Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-12T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-12T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13922, "title": "Will Australia enter a recession before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-12-08T05:24:27.179231Z", "open_time": "2022-12-12T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-14T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-14T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Australia [is the world's 20th largest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Australia) economy by PPP-adjusted GDP, and has suffered only one recession (during the COVID-19 pandemic) since 1991.\n\nDuring the [2021โ2022 inflation surge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_inflation_surge), the Reserve Bank of Australia began to increase interest rates in order to address increasing inflation.\n\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia [has made statements](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-10/rba-rejects-scorched-earth-policy-to-tame-inflation/101639326) indicating its intent to preserve much of Australia's gains in employment during the tightening cycle, suggesting a less aggressive approach to bringing inflation under control than other central banks around the world.\n\nNonetheless, as of December 2022, yields on longer-dated Australian Government bonds [fell below](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-07/australia-front-end-yield-curve-inverted-amid-slowing-growth) those of shorter-dated bonds, often interpreted as a signal of a possible upcoming recession.", "resolution_criteria": "This question asks: Before (and excluding) Q1 2026, will Australia experience two consecutive quarters in which GDP contracts?\n\nBecause it can take some time for the numbers to be available, this question may not resolve immediately in January 2026, but may require later-published data in order to resolve. Resolution shall rely on the quarterly National Accounts published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.\n\nIn order to allow for data revisions, this question will not resolve until two further quarters of official GDP releases have been made after the release that would otherwise resolve the question. Resolution will take into account any revisions to previous quarterly GDP figures that are made in these later releases.\n\nResolution should cite statistical release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Treasury or credible media reports in the financial press", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13922, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758459948.98074, "end_time": 1758805384.30733, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758459948.98074, "end_time": 1758805384.30733, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.25927272250111216 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.335098794572911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7244803124475235, 0.0, 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"interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288673.562045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8533582368586756, 0.1466417631413244 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 169, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Australia [is the world's 20th largest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Australia) economy by PPP-adjusted GDP, and has suffered only one recession (during the COVID-19 pandemic) since 1991.\n\nDuring the [2021โ2022 inflation surge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021%E2%80%932022_inflation_surge), the Reserve Bank of Australia began to increase interest rates in order to address increasing inflation.\n\nThe Reserve Bank of Australia [has made statements](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-10/rba-rejects-scorched-earth-policy-to-tame-inflation/101639326) indicating its intent to preserve much of Australia's gains in employment during the tightening cycle, suggesting a less aggressive approach to bringing inflation under control than other central banks around the world.\n\nNonetheless, as of December 2022, yields on longer-dated Australian Government bonds [fell below](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-07/australia-front-end-yield-curve-inverted-amid-slowing-growth) those of shorter-dated bonds, often interpreted as a signal of a possible upcoming recession." }, { "id": 13921, "title": "Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?", "short_title": "JCPA to pass by 2025", "url_title": "JCPA to pass by 2025", "slug": "jcpa-to-pass-by-2025", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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"2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13921, "title": "Will an act such as the JCPA significantly strengthen US news companies' bargaining position before 2025?", "created_at": "2022-12-08T00:15:42.557226Z", "open_time": "2022-12-08T18:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-10T18:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-10T18:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T17:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T17:45:25.443137Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Over summer 2022,](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-lawmakers-unveil-bill-help-news-media-negotiate-with-google-facebook-2022-08-22/) a bipartisan group of US lawmakers unveiled the [Journalism Competition and Preservation Act,](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/673) intended to give an antitrust exemption to news content producers. [This would allow them to negotiate with companies like Google and Meta *en bloc*](https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2022/06/journalism-competition-and-preservation-act-will-produce-neither-competition-nor), with the goal of getting paid every time those sites link to news articles.\n\nBut top social media companies and free speech advocates โ [groups that usually take opposing views over tech policy](https://rollcall.com/2022/12/06/big-tech-free-speech-advocates-join-to-oppose-journalism-bill/) โ came together to oppose it, and a last-ditch effort to include the bill in the must-pass National Defence Authorization Act [was defeated](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-influence/2022/12/06/jcpa-opponents-spring-into-action-to-block-ndaa-inclusion-00072602) by pushback.\n\nAccording to Emily Shah for Harvard's Journal of Law and Technology, \n\n> [The bipartisan nature of the JCPA reflects general agreement](https://jolt.law.harvard.edu/digest/the-journalism-competition-and-preservation-act-opportunities-and-risks-for-news-content-creators) in Congress for better supporting news organizations and helping rebalance power between content creators and distributors. Several large publishing groups backed the 2019 version of the Act, such the American Society of News Editors, the National Newspaper Association, and the News Media Alliance, which includes The New York Times, The Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal. At the same time, proponents of the JCPA hope it would endow smaller, more niche, or local publishers with bargaining power and leverage they might lack individually.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if such an act is endorsed by at least two of the American Society of News Editors, the National Newspaper Association, and the News Media Alliance, and is reported by credible published sources to have the purpose and plausible effect of significantly strengthening US news companies' bargaining position with, at least, Google and Meta, and is signed into law by the President before January 1, 2025", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13921, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735696118.11834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735696118.11834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.10705236984968043 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.8347533056917453, 1.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6788494170950818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 59.682970954233866, "peer_score": 0.6800949815026872, "coverage": 0.9994896523444294, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994896523444294, "spot_peer_score": 4.770028121355789, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 59.682970954233866, "peer_archived_score": 0.6800949815026872, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.770028121355789, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289814.961858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289814.961858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9647092472136595, 0.03529075278634057 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Over summer 2022,](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/us-lawmakers-unveil-bill-help-news-media-negotiate-with-google-facebook-2022-08-22/) a bipartisan group of US lawmakers unveiled the [Journalism Competition and Preservation Act,](https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/673) intended to give an antitrust exemption to news content producers. [This would allow them to negotiate with companies like Google and Meta *en bloc*](https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2022/06/journalism-competition-and-preservation-act-will-produce-neither-competition-nor), with the goal of getting paid every time those sites link to news articles.\n\nBut top social media companies and free speech advocates โ [groups that usually take opposing views over tech policy](https://rollcall.com/2022/12/06/big-tech-free-speech-advocates-join-to-oppose-journalism-bill/) โ came together to oppose it, and a last-ditch effort to include the bill in the must-pass National Defence Authorization Act [was defeated](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-influence/2022/12/06/jcpa-opponents-spring-into-action-to-block-ndaa-inclusion-00072602) by pushback.\n\nAccording to Emily Shah for Harvard's Journal of Law and Technology, \n\n> [The bipartisan nature of the JCPA reflects general agreement](https://jolt.law.harvard.edu/digest/the-journalism-competition-and-preservation-act-opportunities-and-risks-for-news-content-creators) in Congress for better supporting news organizations and helping rebalance power between content creators and distributors. Several large publishing groups backed the 2019 version of the Act, such the American Society of News Editors, the National Newspaper Association, and the News Media Alliance, which includes The New York Times, The Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal. At the same time, proponents of the JCPA hope it would endow smaller, more niche, or local publishers with bargaining power and leverage they might lack individually." }, { "id": 13913, "title": "Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?", "short_title": "Fathom Radiant Product Launch by 2026", "url_title": "Fathom Radiant Product Launch by 2026", "slug": "fathom-radiant-product-launch-by-2026", "author_id": 104761, "author_username": "Tamay", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-07T22:48:36.499290Z", "published_at": "2022-12-06T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T23:33:39.338465Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-07T22:48:43.200311Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-06T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "๐ป", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13913, "title": "Will Fathom Radiant ship a commercial product before 2026?", "created_at": "2022-12-07T22:48:36.499290Z", "open_time": "2022-12-06T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-08T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-08T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:12:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:12:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Fathom Radiant](https://fathomradiant.co/) is a public benefit corporation working to develop [optical computing hardware](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_computing), aimed specifically for accelerating AI workloads. According to [PitchBook](https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/173893-33#timeline), Fathom Radiant has raised upwards of $10M since being founded in 2014.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Fathom Radiant (or any successor organization) has launched a commercial hardware product before January 1, 2026, according to credible media reports. A successor organization is defined as any organization that incorporates the corporation currently known as Fathom Radiant through. For example, if Fathom Radiant is acquired, then this resolves based on whether the acquiring firm launches a commercial hardware product. If a new firm emerges through a merger of Fathom Radiant and another entity, then this resolves based on whether the acquiring firm launches a commercial hardware product\n\nA commercial product is defined as a product that is for sale to (select) end-users. Products for demo purposes only are therefore not included", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13913, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758433302.79987, "end_time": 1759660107.117077, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758433302.79987, "end_time": 1759660107.117077, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.06953194919682923 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 1.3127501106801933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8863274748307821, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287148.814285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287148.814285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9387503141719048, 0.06124968582809515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Fathom Radiant](https://fathomradiant.co/) is a public benefit corporation working to develop [optical computing hardware](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_computing), aimed specifically for accelerating AI workloads. According to [PitchBook](https://pitchbook.com/profiles/company/173893-33#timeline), Fathom Radiant has raised upwards of $10M since being founded in 2014." }, { "id": 13897, "title": "Will a government space agency commence a crewed mission outside of the Earth-Moon system before 2030?", "short_title": "Crewed mission beyond Earth-Moon system", "url_title": "Crewed mission beyond Earth-Moon system", "slug": "crewed-mission-beyond-earth-moon-system", "author_id": 129011, "author_username": "AlexL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-07T21:41:35.553157Z", "published_at": "2022-12-15T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.873240Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-15T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-15T22:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 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"scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12278/first-group-to-land-person-on-mars/)\n\n---\n\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans):\n\n>On October 8, 2015, NASA published its strategy for human exploration and sustained human presence on Mars. The concept operates through three distinct phases leading up to sustainable human presence.\n\n>The first stage, is the \"Earth Reliant\" phase, which continues using the International Space Station until 2024, validating deep space technologies and studying the effects of long-duration space missions on the human body.\n\n>The second stage, \"Proving Ground\", moves away from Earth reliance and ventures into cislunar space for most of its tasks. The proposed Lunar Gateway would test deep-space habitation facilities, and validate capabilities required for human exploration of Mars.\n\n>Finally, phase three is the transition to independence from Earth resources. The \"Earth Independent\" phase includes long-term missions on the Martian surface with habitats that only require routine maintenance, and the harvesting of Martian resources for fuel, water, and building materials. NASA is still aiming for human missions to Mars in the 2030s, though Earth independence could take decades longer.\n\n>In November 2015, Administrator Bolden of NASA reaffirmed the goal of sending humans to Mars. He laid out 2030 as the date of a crewed surface landing on Mars, and noted that the 2021 Mars rover, Perseverance would support the human mission.\n\n>Mars Base Camp is a US spacecraft concept that proposes to send astronauts to Mars orbit as early as 2028. The vehicle concept, developed by Lockheed Martin, would use both future and heritage technology, as well as the Orion spacecraft built by NASA.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, any government space agency has launched a crewed spacecraft with the intended destination being outside the Earth-Moon system. To resolve as **Yes**, the crew must have the intent to travel the entire distance to reach their destination outside Earth's system and the spacecraft must reach 100 kilometers of altitude intact. This will resolve according to information published by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) as of January 30, 2030.", "fine_print": "* To qualify, the launch must be independent, meaning: a member of that space agency must be aboard a craft that is launched from that agency's vehicle on that agency's sovereign territory. Launches from offshore platforms positioned outside of the territorial sea of the sovereign state in question will be considered as part of the resolution, provided that those platforms are operated by that state's space agency.", "post_id": 13897, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757692783.742867, "end_time": 1759569920.948987, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757692783.742867, "end_time": 1759569920.948987, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07543887543135372 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.632478571458538, 4.558433546466138, 1.2976966800556278, 0.7554335339734912, 0.028326630857196305, 0.9994643689351558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18389761120783424, 0.0, 0.384010083456343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003354626279025118, 0.0, 0.08072675464844094, 0.0, 0.2619121957393845, 0.0, 0.0006398679769312256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01085885475966403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0081981432990675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27742570457074694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00025661101180229933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24717103491016296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012340980408667956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005258417441048667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7763082135920304 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289022.468598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289022.468598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9992787640092395, 0.0007212359907605074 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 239, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Related Question on Metaculus:*\n\n* [Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12278/first-group-to-land-person-on-mars/)\n\n---\n\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans):\n\n>On October 8, 2015, NASA published its strategy for human exploration and sustained human presence on Mars. The concept operates through three distinct phases leading up to sustainable human presence.\n\n>The first stage, is the \"Earth Reliant\" phase, which continues using the International Space Station until 2024, validating deep space technologies and studying the effects of long-duration space missions on the human body.\n\n>The second stage, \"Proving Ground\", moves away from Earth reliance and ventures into cislunar space for most of its tasks. The proposed Lunar Gateway would test deep-space habitation facilities, and validate capabilities required for human exploration of Mars.\n\n>Finally, phase three is the transition to independence from Earth resources. The \"Earth Independent\" phase includes long-term missions on the Martian surface with habitats that only require routine maintenance, and the harvesting of Martian resources for fuel, water, and building materials. NASA is still aiming for human missions to Mars in the 2030s, though Earth independence could take decades longer.\n\n>In November 2015, Administrator Bolden of NASA reaffirmed the goal of sending humans to Mars. He laid out 2030 as the date of a crewed surface landing on Mars, and noted that the 2021 Mars rover, Perseverance would support the human mission.\n\n>Mars Base Camp is a US spacecraft concept that proposes to send astronauts to Mars orbit as early as 2028. The vehicle concept, developed by Lockheed Martin, would use both future and heritage technology, as well as the Orion spacecraft built by NASA." }, { "id": 13854, "title": "Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?", "short_title": "Will certain statues go to Greece by 2024?", "url_title": "Will certain statues go to Greece by 2024?", "slug": "will-certain-statues-go-to-greece-by-2024", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-05T23:31:18.563795Z", "published_at": "2022-12-06T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.864547Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-06T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-06T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13854, "title": "Will certain marble statues removed from Greece in the early 19th century be moved back before 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-05T23:31:18.563795Z", "open_time": "2022-12-06T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-07T12:41:50.057081Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-07T12:41:50.057081Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the early 19th century, at the instruction of Thomas Bruce, 7th Earl of Elgin, many of the sculptures of the Greek Parthenon [were removed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elgin_Marbles) from Greece and transported to Britain. As of December 6, 2022, they remain at the [British Museum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Museum). Greece [wants them returned](https://news.artnet.com/art-world/greek-prime-minister-offers-trade-for-parthenon-marbles-2034905).\n\n[Per Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Elgin-Marbles),\n\n> Elgin was a lover of art and antiquities. By his own account, he was concerned about damage being done to important artworks in the temples of Greece, then under Ottoman sway. Fearing that they would eventually be destroyed because of Turkish indifference, he asked permission of the Sublime Porte to have artists measure, sketch, and copy important pieces of sculpture and architectural detail for posterity. At length the request was grantedโalong with the authority โto take away any pieces of stone with old inscriptions or figures thereon.โ\n\n> Elgin then began selecting a vast store of the treasures ...\n\n> ...\n\n> An outcry arose over the affair, and Elgin was assailed for rapacity, vandalism, and dishonesty ...\n\nAn older edition has greater detail:\n\n> [Thomas Bruce, 7th earl of Elgin (1766โ1841),](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/1911_Encyclop%C3%A6dia_Britannica/Elgin_and_Kincardine,_Earls_of) British diplomatist and art collector, was born on the 20th of July 1766, and in 1771 succeeded his brother in the Scottish peerage as the 7th earl of Elgin (cr. 1633), and 11th of Kincardine (cr. 1647). He was educated at Harrow and Westminster, and, after studying for some time at the university of St Andrews, proceeded to the continent, where he studied international law at Paris, and military science in Germany. When his education was completed he entered the army, in which he rose to the rank of general. His chief attention was, however, devoted to diplomacy. In 1792 he was appointed envoy at Brussels, and in 1795 envoy extraordinary at Berlin; and from 1799 to 1802 he was envoy extraordinary at the Porte.\n\n> It was during his stay at Constantinople that he formed the purpose of removing from Athens the celebrated sculptures now known as the Elgin Marbles. His doing so was censured by some as vandalism, and doubts were also expressed as to the artistic value of many of the marbles; but he [vindicated himself in a pamphlet published in 1810, and entitled Memorandum on the Subject of the Earl of Elginโs Pursuits in Greece.](https://archive.org/details/memorandumonsubj00hami) In 1816 the collection was purchased by the nation for ยฃ36,000, and placed in the British Museum, the outlay incurred by Lord Elgin having been more than ยฃ50,000.\n\n----\n\n2022-12-03:\n\n> [Exclusive: Head of British Museum held secret talks with Greek PM, officials to agree deal for Parthenon Marblesโ return](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/exclusive-head-british-museum-held-secret-talks-greek-andritsopoulos/)\n\n> George Osborne, the chair of the British Museum, has been holding secret talks with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis over the last 13 months to negotiate the possible return of the Parthenon Marbles, Greek daily newspaper Ta Nea can exclusively reveal.\n\n> The behind-the-scenes meetings have been taking place in London since November 2021. Osborne has also met with two senior Greek government ministers.\n\n> At least two of those meetings were held at the Greek ambassador's residence in Mayfair. Another one was held as recently as this week at a hotel in Knightsbridge.\nThe discussions have been kept out of the public eye. \n\n> ...\n\n> The return of Phidiasโs masterpieces to Greece was the only topic on the agenda of these meetings.\n\n> ...\n\n> A Greek official said that senior British Museum figures have privately conceded that the sculptures will eventually be restored to Athens as a single work of art. If that happens, Greece intends to lend the British Museum rare ancient Greek artefacts.\n\n> The official said that several solutions are being considered that could โset asideโ the ownership issue in a possible deal. They added that there are ways to avoid mentioning ownership in an agreement on the Marblesโ return.\n\n> The British Museum claims to have legal title to the fifth-century B.C. antiquities. Greece, however, maintains that the museum is not the legal owner of the sculptures.\n\n> The museumโs trustees have always insisted that the acceptance of the lending institutionโs ownership is a โpreconditionโ for any loan. However, when questioned by Ta Nea in February, its spokesperson stopped short of reiterating the word โpreconditionโ, used by the museum for many years. Instead, they replaced it with the word โnormallyโ. โBorrowers also normally acknowledge that the lender has title to the objects they want to borrow,โ the spokesperson said.\n\n----\n\nLord Elgin was a Scottish representative peer for fifty years. He died at Paris on the 14th of November 1841.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if certain marble statues are returned to within Greek territory before January 1, 2024, based on reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\n* [Wikipedia calls them](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elgin_Marbles), \"The Elgin Marbles (/หษlษกษชn/), also known as the Parthenon Marbles (Greek: ฮฮปฯ ฯฯฮฌ ฯฮฟฯ ฮ ฮฑฯฮธฮตฮฝฯฮฝฮฑ, lit. \"sculptures of the Parthenon\"),\" and I don't like controversy, so they're Certain Marble Statues, ok?\n\n* Legal questions of ownership may become somewhat fuzzed in this instance, and the fuzzing may be somewhat intentional, so we abide by the ancient roman rule of [Uti possidetis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uti_possidetis); it's just where they are.\n\n* It's surprisingly difficult to get a good inventory on what the marbles even are, physically, so the standard is just 40% by mass. If 40% of the *physical weight* of the Elgin Marbles ends up in Greece at any point between now and the end of 2023", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13854, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704074732.575089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704074732.575089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.012283699776380122 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.38432881875828, 6.98956496885099, 0.04351510538011948, 0.17574312860057456, 0.24538102462824357, 0.04778779694851711, 0.0, 0.02385565427197364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0985619345631302, 0.026507746979498387, 0.029387957787521568, 0.04304567522719552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015244917867552703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030874849173408332, 0.1664766545233207, 0.01352731712145787, 0.0, 0.00699857894747922, 0.021416918649247395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008576237463718482, 0.003706294648677218, 0.0, 0.0016186711029794957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029507213450045396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005954758208044591, 0.004400004245480924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.504883419389328, "coverage": 0.9993224357434519, "baseline_score": 61.36662422257926, "spot_peer_score": -12.029110109248293, "peer_archived_score": 7.504883419389328, "baseline_archived_score": 61.36662422257926, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.029110109248293 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703921752.217474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703921752.217474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 290, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the early 19th century, at the instruction of Thomas Bruce, 7th Earl of Elgin, many of the sculptures of the Greek Parthenon [were removed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elgin_Marbles) from Greece and transported to Britain. As of December 6, 2022, they remain at the [British Museum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Museum). Greece [wants them returned](https://news.artnet.com/art-world/greek-prime-minister-offers-trade-for-parthenon-marbles-2034905).\n\n[Per Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Elgin-Marbles),\n\n> Elgin was a lover of art and antiquities. By his own account, he was concerned about damage being done to important artworks in the temples of Greece, then under Ottoman sway. Fearing that they would eventually be destroyed because of Turkish indifference, he asked permission of the Sublime Porte to have artists measure, sketch, and copy important pieces of sculpture and architectural detail for posterity. At length the request was grantedโalong with the authority โto take away any pieces of stone with old inscriptions or figures thereon.โ\n\n> Elgin then began selecting a vast store of the treasures ...\n\n> ...\n\n> An outcry arose over the affair, and Elgin was assailed for rapacity, vandalism, and dishonesty ...\n\nAn older edition has greater detail:\n\n> [Thomas Bruce, 7th earl of Elgin (1766โ1841),](https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/1911_Encyclop%C3%A6dia_Britannica/Elgin_and_Kincardine,_Earls_of) British diplomatist and art collector, was born on the 20th of July 1766, and in 1771 succeeded his brother in the Scottish peerage as the 7th earl of Elgin (cr. 1633), and 11th of Kincardine (cr. 1647). He was educated at Harrow and Westminster, and, after studying for some time at the university of St Andrews, proceeded to the continent, where he studied international law at Paris, and military science in Germany. When his education was completed he entered the army, in which he rose to the rank of general. His chief attention was, however, devoted to diplomacy. In 1792 he was appointed envoy at Brussels, and in 1795 envoy extraordinary at Berlin; and from 1799 to 1802 he was envoy extraordinary at the Porte.\n\n> It was during his stay at Constantinople that he formed the purpose of removing from Athens the celebrated sculptures now known as the Elgin Marbles. His doing so was censured by some as vandalism, and doubts were also expressed as to the artistic value of many of the marbles; but he [vindicated himself in a pamphlet published in 1810, and entitled Memorandum on the Subject of the Earl of Elginโs Pursuits in Greece.](https://archive.org/details/memorandumonsubj00hami) In 1816 the collection was purchased by the nation for ยฃ36,000, and placed in the British Museum, the outlay incurred by Lord Elgin having been more than ยฃ50,000.\n\n----\n\n2022-12-03:\n\n> [Exclusive: Head of British Museum held secret talks with Greek PM, officials to agree deal for Parthenon Marblesโ return](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/exclusive-head-british-museum-held-secret-talks-greek-andritsopoulos/)\n\n> George Osborne, the chair of the British Museum, has been holding secret talks with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis over the last 13 months to negotiate the possible return of the Parthenon Marbles, Greek daily newspaper Ta Nea can exclusively reveal.\n\n> The behind-the-scenes meetings have been taking place in London since November 2021. Osborne has also met with two senior Greek government ministers.\n\n> At least two of those meetings were held at the Greek ambassador's residence in Mayfair. Another one was held as recently as this week at a hotel in Knightsbridge.\nThe discussions have been kept out of the public eye. \n\n> ...\n\n> The return of Phidiasโs masterpieces to Greece was the only topic on the agenda of these meetings.\n\n> ...\n\n> A Greek official said that senior British Museum figures have privately conceded that the sculptures will eventually be restored to Athens as a single work of art. If that happens, Greece intends to lend the British Museum rare ancient Greek artefacts.\n\n> The official said that several solutions are being considered that could โset asideโ the ownership issue in a possible deal. They added that there are ways to avoid mentioning ownership in an agreement on the Marblesโ return.\n\n> The British Museum claims to have legal title to the fifth-century B.C. antiquities. Greece, however, maintains that the museum is not the legal owner of the sculptures.\n\n> The museumโs trustees have always insisted that the acceptance of the lending institutionโs ownership is a โpreconditionโ for any loan. However, when questioned by Ta Nea in February, its spokesperson stopped short of reiterating the word โpreconditionโ, used by the museum for many years. Instead, they replaced it with the word โnormallyโ. โBorrowers also normally acknowledge that the lender has title to the objects they want to borrow,โ the spokesperson said.\n\n----\n\nLord Elgin was a Scottish representative peer for fifty years. He died at Paris on the 14th of November 1841." }, { "id": 13844, "title": "Will South Tyrol secede from Italy before 2050?", "short_title": "South Tyrolean Secession", "url_title": "South Tyrolean Secession", "slug": "south-tyrolean-secession", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-04T15:21:43.868185Z", "published_at": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.989881Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "๐ณ๏ธ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13844, "title": "Will South Tyrol secede from Italy before 2050?", "created_at": "2022-12-04T15:21:43.868185Z", "open_time": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-20T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-20T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[South Tyrol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Tyrol) is a region located in the northern part of Italy. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the region was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. However, after World War I, the Treaty of Saint-Germain-en-Laye (1919) transferred control of the region to Italy (with the Tyrol region staying in Austria). This has led to tensions between Italy and Austria, throughout the 20th century. [In 1972](https://www.jstor.org/stable/43101291#metadata_info_tab_contents), the Italian government agreed to grant South Tyrol a high level of autonomy in an effort to address these tensions within the region and with Austria. This included provisions for the protection of the German language and culture, as well as the establishment of a provincial parliament with the power to pass laws on certain matters as well as the ability to retain a higher level of taxes (up to [90%](https://www.provinz.bz.it/this-is-south-tyrol/it-is-all-about-money.asp)). \n\nDespite being an autonomous region of Italy, the South Tyrolean independence movement continues to advocate for [greater independence](https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/can-europe-make-it/south-tyrol-from-secessionist-to-european-dreams/) such as for (a) secession from Italy and (b) reunification with the Austrian state of Tyrol. However, a recent [academic chapter published by OUP](https://academic.oup.com/book/39789/chapter/339888265) argued that the โfact that South Tyrol still develops its autonomy has kept secessionist forces at bayโ. Contrastingly, a [2013 poll](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407064359/http://www.tageszeitung.it/2013/07/02/die-sezession-umfrage/) of 700 residents of South Tyrol found that 54% favoured independence from Italy, with only 26% preferring status within Italy. The separatist party โSouth Tyrolean Freedomโ won 6% of the vote in a [regional election](https://civis.bz.it/vote/landtag2018/results/home_le_vg.htm) in 2018. Other parties like โDie Freiheitlichenโ and โBรผrgerunion fรผr Sรผdtirolโ have also advocated for increased independence, winning 6.2% and 1.3% of the vote in the same election respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2050, Italy recognises South Tyrol as a sovereign state or if South Tyrol is officially part of Austria and is recognised by both Italy and Austria as such, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if South Tyrol is still part of Italy as of January 1, 2050, even if it continues to gain greater levels of autonomy.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Ambiguous** if Italy or South Tyrol cease to exist as meaningful entities and have no clear successor governments.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, in the case of territorial disputes or challenges to the legitimacy of Italy or South Tyrol, a successor government will be recognized as one which holds over 50% of the territory under the de facto control of the territory on December 15, 2022, and whose political capital city is within that same territory. If either Italy or South Tyrol no longer exist or have no successors as defined prior to the time of resolution, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**. Territorial reorganization while South Tyrol is under the jurisdiction of Italy will use similar criteria to determine if a regional government in Italy is considered to be a successor to South Tyrol.", "post_id": 13844, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757038619.756131, "end_time": 1759101824.895519, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757038619.756131, "end_time": 1759101824.895519, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018709517616424958 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.5459652627451463, 2.0498241657979053, 1.202739537823157, 1.6401067157616516, 0.0, 0.4449606599441233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2270534479265771, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287128.026594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287128.026594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9963354355288828, 0.0036645644711171695 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[South Tyrol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Tyrol) is a region located in the northern part of Italy. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the region was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. However, after World War I, the Treaty of Saint-Germain-en-Laye (1919) transferred control of the region to Italy (with the Tyrol region staying in Austria). This has led to tensions between Italy and Austria, throughout the 20th century. [In 1972](https://www.jstor.org/stable/43101291#metadata_info_tab_contents), the Italian government agreed to grant South Tyrol a high level of autonomy in an effort to address these tensions within the region and with Austria. This included provisions for the protection of the German language and culture, as well as the establishment of a provincial parliament with the power to pass laws on certain matters as well as the ability to retain a higher level of taxes (up to [90%](https://www.provinz.bz.it/this-is-south-tyrol/it-is-all-about-money.asp)). \n\nDespite being an autonomous region of Italy, the South Tyrolean independence movement continues to advocate for [greater independence](https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/can-europe-make-it/south-tyrol-from-secessionist-to-european-dreams/) such as for (a) secession from Italy and (b) reunification with the Austrian state of Tyrol. However, a recent [academic chapter published by OUP](https://academic.oup.com/book/39789/chapter/339888265) argued that the โfact that South Tyrol still develops its autonomy has kept secessionist forces at bayโ. Contrastingly, a [2013 poll](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407064359/http://www.tageszeitung.it/2013/07/02/die-sezession-umfrage/) of 700 residents of South Tyrol found that 54% favoured independence from Italy, with only 26% preferring status within Italy. The separatist party โSouth Tyrolean Freedomโ won 6% of the vote in a [regional election](https://civis.bz.it/vote/landtag2018/results/home_le_vg.htm) in 2018. Other parties like โDie Freiheitlichenโ and โBรผrgerunion fรผr Sรผdtirolโ have also advocated for increased independence, winning 6.2% and 1.3% of the vote in the same election respectively." }, { "id": 13832, "title": "Will US Household-Debt-to-GDP surpass 100% before 2033?", "short_title": "US Household-Debt-to-GDP above 100% by 2033", "url_title": "US Household-Debt-to-GDP above 100% by 2033", "slug": "us-household-debt-to-gdp-above-100-by-2033", "author_id": 119767, "author_username": "PhilippSchoenegger", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-03T11:13:20.413500Z", "published_at": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.318905Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13832, "title": "Will US Household-Debt-to-GDP surpass 100% before 2033?", "created_at": "2022-12-03T11:13:20.413500Z", "open_time": "2022-12-18T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-20T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-20T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Household-debt-to-GDP is a metric that measures the amount of household debt relative to the size of a country's economy. It is an important metric to consider because high levels of household debt can have negative economic consequences. Monitoring household-debt-to-GDP can provide valuable information about the health of an economy and the financial well-being of households. It can help policymakers identify potential risks and take action to prevent negative economic consequences.\n\nThe [IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017) found a โtrade-off between a short-term boost to growth from higher household debt and a medium-term risk to macroeconomic and financial stability that may result in lower growth, consumption, and employment and a greater risk of banking crises. This trade-off is stronger when household debt is higher and can be attenuated by a combination of good policies, institutions, and regulations. These include appropriate macroprudential and financial sector policies, better financial supervision, less dependence on external financing, flexible exchange rates, and lower income inequality.โ\n\nA recent [BIS Working Paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2906555) found that \"negative long-run effects on consumption tend to intensify as the household debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60%. For GDP growth, that intensification seems to occur when the ratio exceeds 80%.\"\n\nAccording to the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N), US household-debt-to-GDP surpassed 100% in Q4 2007 and largely declined since the 2008 crash to a low of 74.8% in Q1 2019. During COVID, the ratio peaked at 81.9% in Q4 2020. The latest data for Q2 2022 have the household-debt-to-GDP ratio at 75.6%.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XHgh&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the ratio between household debt (of resident US households) and US GDP exceeds 100, according to the relevant [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N) chart, for any quarter on the chart after Q2 2022 and before Q1 2033.\n\nIf it does not, the question resolves as **No**. \n\nIf the FRED data series is discontinued, other reputable economics institutions that report this ratio may be used for question resolution.", "fine_print": "Their specific methodology and data used by the FRED are as follows: \n>The data for household debt comprise debt incurred by resident households of the economy only. This FSI measures the overall level of household indebtedness (commonly related to consumer loans and mortgages) as a share of GDP.", "post_id": 13832, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756812193.363369, "end_time": 1760573986.221, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.487 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756812193.363369, "end_time": 1760573986.221, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.487 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.4063198721709937 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.7986152240815525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9052638420575492, 0.0, 1.0645902549052866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289323.389188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289323.389188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6190360615559243, 0.3809639384440758 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Household-debt-to-GDP is a metric that measures the amount of household debt relative to the size of a country's economy. It is an important metric to consider because high levels of household debt can have negative economic consequences. Monitoring household-debt-to-GDP can provide valuable information about the health of an economy and the financial well-being of households. It can help policymakers identify potential risks and take action to prevent negative economic consequences.\n\nThe [IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017) found a โtrade-off between a short-term boost to growth from higher household debt and a medium-term risk to macroeconomic and financial stability that may result in lower growth, consumption, and employment and a greater risk of banking crises. This trade-off is stronger when household debt is higher and can be attenuated by a combination of good policies, institutions, and regulations. These include appropriate macroprudential and financial sector policies, better financial supervision, less dependence on external financing, flexible exchange rates, and lower income inequality.โ\n\nA recent [BIS Working Paper](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2906555) found that \"negative long-run effects on consumption tend to intensify as the household debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60%. For GDP growth, that intensification seems to occur when the ratio exceeds 80%.\"\n\nAccording to the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N), US household-debt-to-GDP surpassed 100% in Q4 2007 and largely declined since the 2008 crash to a low of 74.8% in Q1 2019. During COVID, the ratio peaked at 81.9% in Q4 2020. The latest data for Q2 2022 have the household-debt-to-GDP ratio at 75.6%.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XHgh&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 13831, "title": "Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?", "short_title": "Any State Dem Pres. Caucus in 2024", "url_title": "Any State Dem Pres. Caucus in 2024", "slug": "any-state-dem-pres-caucus-in-2024", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-03T10:25:59.527884Z", "published_at": "2022-12-06T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.207462Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-06T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-13T14:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-13T14:35:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-06T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13831, "title": "Will any state hold a caucus instead of a primary for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2024?", "created_at": "2022-12-03T10:25:59.527884Z", "open_time": "2022-12-06T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-08T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-08T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-13T14:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-13T14:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-13T14:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "\"The way we choose our presidential candidates in the United States,\" [note Galen Druke and Jake Arlow of FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-modern-primary-system-has-shaped-our-politics/), \"is unique among the worldโs democracies.\"\n\n> [E]verything changed after the [disastrous 1968 Democratic national convention in Chicago.](https://www.c-span.org/video/?74510-1/1968-democratic-convention) Although somewhat unintended, the reforms following that convention created a candidate selection system more open to public input than ever before.\n\n> At first blush, allowing for greater public input may seem like the most democratic thing to do โ but there is more to a well-functioning democracy than whether people have the opportunity to vote. The quality of the system also depends on its design.\n\nRecently, the President of the United States [wrote a letter on non-Presidential stationary to certain officials of his Party.](https://democrats.org/news/president-bidens-letter-to-the-dncs-rules-and-bylaws-committee-on-the-presidential-nominating-process/) Therein, he criticized certain qualities of the present system, and proposed certain changes in its design. Among [other proposals](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/iowa-hosts-first-caucus-by-2029/), Biden wrote:\n\n> Our party should no longer allow caucuses as part of our nominating process. We are a party dedicated to ensuring participation by all voters and for removing barriers to political participation. Caucuses โ requiring voters to choose in public, to spend significant amounts of time to caucus, disadvantaging hourly workers and anyone who does not have the flexibility to go to a set location at a set time โ are inherently anti-participatory. It should be our partyโs goal to rid the nominating process of restrictive, anti-worker caucuses.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if any U.S. state holds caucus- rather than primary-type selection processes for the Democratic nominee for President in 2024, and **No** if this does not happen. If there is doubt or ambiguity about whether a state uses one or the other process, administrators will rely preferentially on [the National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/primary-types.aspx) with [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Primary_election_systems_by_state) as a secondary backstop", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13831, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703921147.985318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703921147.985318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7872812628562711 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.13981930080831617, 0.4162719269428941, 0.755341909330932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7790296231062384, 0.26402013543029734, 0.19523450305981643, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 1.704822886297108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.7106174188864465, "coverage": 0.9885489562784294, "baseline_score": 52.11295414691795, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 5.7106174188864465, "baseline_archived_score": 52.11295414691795, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704008440.404105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704008440.404105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17613446545629197, 0.823865534543708 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "\"The way we choose our presidential candidates in the United States,\" [note Galen Druke and Jake Arlow of FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-the-modern-primary-system-has-shaped-our-politics/), \"is unique among the worldโs democracies.\"\n\n> [E]verything changed after the [disastrous 1968 Democratic national convention in Chicago.](https://www.c-span.org/video/?74510-1/1968-democratic-convention) Although somewhat unintended, the reforms following that convention created a candidate selection system more open to public input than ever before.\n\n> At first blush, allowing for greater public input may seem like the most democratic thing to do โ but there is more to a well-functioning democracy than whether people have the opportunity to vote. The quality of the system also depends on its design.\n\nRecently, the President of the United States [wrote a letter on non-Presidential stationary to certain officials of his Party.](https://democrats.org/news/president-bidens-letter-to-the-dncs-rules-and-bylaws-committee-on-the-presidential-nominating-process/) Therein, he criticized certain qualities of the present system, and proposed certain changes in its design. Among [other proposals](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3600/iowa-hosts-first-caucus-by-2029/), Biden wrote:\n\n> Our party should no longer allow caucuses as part of our nominating process. We are a party dedicated to ensuring participation by all voters and for removing barriers to political participation. Caucuses โ requiring voters to choose in public, to spend significant amounts of time to caucus, disadvantaging hourly workers and anyone who does not have the flexibility to go to a set location at a set time โ are inherently anti-participatory. It should be our partyโs goal to rid the nominating process of restrictive, anti-worker caucuses." }, { "id": 13828, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?", "short_title": "Will The People Choose Top Gun: Maverick?", "url_title": "Will The People Choose Top Gun: Maverick?", "slug": "will-the-people-choose-top-gun-maverick", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-02T23:41:27.134481Z", "published_at": "2022-12-03T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.892183Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-03T02:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2022-12-06T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-06T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-07T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-07T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-03T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32592, "name": "2022 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1988, "type": "question_series", "name": "๐ฐQ4 2022 Beginner Tournament ๐ฐ", "slug": "Q42022-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/beginner_image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-11-18T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:31:21.283137Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1988, "type": "question_series", "name": "๐ฐQ4 2022 Beginner Tournament ๐ฐ", "slug": "Q42022-beginner-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/beginner_image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-11-18T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2022-12-31T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-05-23T21:31:21.283137Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 13828, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?", "created_at": "2022-12-02T23:41:27.134481Z", "open_time": "2022-12-03T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-03T08:10:44.520346Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-03T08:10:44.520346Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2022-12-07T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2022-12-07T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2022-12-07T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2022-12-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2022-12-06T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "The year was 1968. Lyndon Johnson was the President of the United States, The Beatles were finishing the White Album, and the United States Navy was trying to figure out why it was losing so many world-class fighter planes to a third-tier enemy in a place called Vietnam.\n\nTraditionally, Navy fighters had destroyed roughly ten or more enemy aircraft for everyone one they lost in return, for a loss-exchange-ratio โ what everyone really wanted to call a *kill ratio* โ of some 10:1. In its grimmest and most glorious battles such as the Navy preferred to remember, [this statistic might dive to around 2 or 3 to 1](https://gpsana.org/?p=3007); in dominating unequal battles [such as the Navy actually preferred to fight](https://www.history.navy.mil/browse-by-topic/wars-conflicts-and-operations/world-war-ii/1944/battle-philippine-sea/turkey-shoot.html) it might climb even much higher still.\n\nBut in Vietnam, while the material factors all seemed to point towards the dominant, high ratio, the [operations research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operations_research) told the admirals the truth โ that Vietnam's tiny, rookie air force of [mostly hopelessly obsolete Soviet cast-offs like the MiG-17 and -19](globalsecurity.org/military/world/vietnam/nva-nvaf.htm) was handling the first team very roughly, holding it to a kill ratio no better and perhaps somewhat worse than 2:1. Worse, new new MiG-21 was coming into Vietnamese service, with its high speed and air-to-air guided missiles. The problem only seemed to be getting worse. But what even *was* the problem?\n\nWhen Navy Captain Frank Ault was tasked, in response to the shocking failures, with examining the Navy's process for acquiring and employing air-to-air missile systems, he chose to interpret his mandate broadly. Previous reviews had been too piecemeal, [he suggested.](https://www.history.navy.mil/research/histories/naval-aviation-history/ault-report.html) None \"addressed concurrently the aircraft-missile fire control system across the complete spectrum\".\n\nAult ultimately concluded that the problem was human and cultural. The Navy had gone all-in its new F-4 Phantom heavy interceptor-fighter and the high-tech, quantitative approach it embodied. Wars were to be fought by pushbutton and the enemy pre-emptively denied a vote, killed by missiles from beyond visual range before he had any opportunity to act. Chance and judgement were to be distrusted and eliminated. But this approach had broken down over Vietnam, where combat conditions had not corresponded to those envisioned by Pentagon planners. Enemies might be detected at long range, but in crowded multi-service and multi-national airspace, this gave no license to attack without first making a visual identification. Denied the ability to fight their preferred fight, F-4 pilots were being forced into close-range dogfights for which their aircraft and training were not designed. Even when ideal conditions did allow them to play to their airplanes' presumed strengths, returns were generally a pathetic fraction of what the numerical simulations had predicted. Results had been postulated based on calculations that were meaningless because they neglected the cumulative effects of stress, fear, and accumulated small human difficulties; what Claueswitz called [friction](https://www.clausewitz.com/readings/OnWar1873/BK1ch07.html).\n\nAult's answer was to set up a Fighter Weapons School at Miramar, California that would become known as TOPGUN, to teach the skills that had been lost. [\"We threw away the tactics manual and wrote our own,\" recalled](https://www.historynet.com/topgun-turns-50/) the school's first commander. [Equipment and budget were virtually nil,](https://www.defense.gov/News/Feature-Stories/Story/Article/2823132/it-started-in-a-parking-lot-topguns-history-revealed/) but personnel were exceptional. Training assignments were just four weeks long, but intense, realistic, and rewarding. Assignees, selected from among the most promising relatively new pilots, were expected to \"spread the gospel\" on their return to the fleet. It worked. When the halftime bell sounded, the [Paris Peace Talks collapsed,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Peace_Accords#Breakthrough_and_agreement) and President Nixon ordered a resumption of large-scale aerial warfare over North Vietnam, the Navy was ready. Navy kill ratios climbed back into the 10:1 regime and stayed there for the rest of the war, while the Air Force, which then had [not yet implemented its own equivalent of Top Gun,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_Red_Flag) continued to struggle.\n\nYears passed, Vietnam became for Americans only a painful memory, and TOPGUN continued. It was 1983, some thirteen years after the first, 01-69 class graduated; Ronald Reagan was president, U2 had just released the *War* album, and magazine writer Ehud Yonay [painted an indelible portrait of how the school looked in the early 1980s for *California* magazine.](http://www.topgunbio.com/top-guns-by-ehud-yonay/) \"In those days,\" his own subjects [would later observe,](https://www.usna1978.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/THE-STORY-BEHIND.pdf)\n\n> before high definition video and Go-Pro type cameras, the written word combined with still photography was the only practical and affordable way to convey to others what flying fighters was like. Ehudโs story was among the very few articles that transported the average reader in [...] itโs no surprise someone later recognized potential movie material\n\n\"Someone\" was [Hollywood producers Don Simpson and Jerry Bruckheimer,](https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/lifestyle/1986/05/16/the-twin-titans-of-top-gun/db86b5f9-f7ad-4f3e-bd97-81ccf6522c2a/) who turned the Top Gun academy and the portrait of \"Fightertown, U.S.A.\" in the 1980s into an epochal Hollywood triumph, [\"the most aesthetically arresting propaganda film ever created.\"](https://www.avclub.com/top-gun-is-the-sleekest-horniest-recruitment-ad-of-the-1843324418) The stories that Navy recruiters opened up for business directly inside movie theater lobbies, or that Navy recruitment increased 300%, or 500% or 1,000% are difficult to confirm, but the sheer proportion of post-Cold War veterans today who trace their involvement with the Navy to *Top Gun* is difficult to gainsay. Indeed, the recruitment boom was so indiscriminate that not a few Air Force veterans today sheepishly admit they were drawn in without realizing that Tom Cruise had actually been flying for the rival service.\n\n(Not everyone was convinced; Roger Ebert was awed by director Tony Scott's ability to depict complex aerial battle maneuvers without overly disorienting the viewer, but added, [\"Look out for the scenes where the people talk to one another.\"](https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/top-gun-1986) And the film's absurd horniness was so excessive that it was apparently [blamed for the Tailhook Convention sexual harassment scandal.](https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/08/11/top-gun-boosted-recruiting-and-brought-tailhook-scandal-so-what-happens-after-blockbuster-sequel.html))\n\nYears passed. It was 2022. Joe Biden was President, Taylor Swift had just released the \"Midnights\" album, and Tom Cruise somehow was still easily justifying his place as a first-tier movie star. It was time to release the remake. No-one expected much from what was seen as essentially a period tribute piece. But *Maverick's* success went on [to astonish the world.](https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20221201-how-top-gun-maverick-shocked-the-world) Somehow, the younger work had been matured, aged gracefully. Its simplistic good-vs-evil and boy-meets-girl premises had a new attraction in an age of recondite \"expanded universes.\" Tomris Laffly, [writing for the website of the late Roger Ebert, praised *Maverick*](https://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/top-gun-maverick-movie-review-2022) for marrying the old *Top Gun* action ethos with an unexpectedly high tone. \"In some sense, what this movie takes most seriously are concepts like friendship, loyalty, romance, and okay, bromance.\" Audiences agreed; *Maverick* was not only the hit of the year, but one of [the highest-grossing movies of all time.](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/08/media/top-gun-paramount-ceo-risk-takers/index.html)\n\n***Will Top Gun: Maverick win Favorite Movie at the 2022 People's Choice Awards?***\n\nThis question resolves ***Yes*** if *Maverick* wins and ***No*** if it doesn't. 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"description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Raphael Warnock is a Baptist Minister and United States Senator from Georgia. He was first elected in [a special election in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia) to fill the remaining two years of a retiring Senator's term. Because his election was close, was crucial to deciding overall partisan control in the Senate, and required a second-round runoff election to determine an overall winner, it was watched unusually carefully on a national level. Warnock was praised for his skillful and calculating campaigning; at one point, he [borrowed a friend's puppy for a campaign ad about how lovable he was](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/may/23/gary-black/was-beagle-raphael-warnocks-2020-tv-ad-his-dog/), because his own dog was apparently [considered too big and scary for white voters.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/raphael-warnocks-dog-ads-cut-against-white-voters-stereotypes-of-black-people/)\n\nHerschel Walker is a football star from Georgia who has lived for many years in Texas. Although previously unknown politically, he secured the 2022 Republican Senate nomination easily [once endorsed by Donald Trump](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/22/politics/georgia-senate-race-2022-herschel-walker-donald-trump/index.html). But professional and \"establishment\" politicos fretted. As the campaign proceeded and Walker's personal and professional limitations became clear, he came to be seen increasingly [as an exemplar of a class of ill-advisable Senate candidates](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/10/trumps-terrible-senate-candidates-could-still-win.html) parachuted by Trump into otherwise favorable races. \"[Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/10/politics/mitch-mcconnell-midterm-senate-race-candidates)\", Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell noted portentously.\n\nThough changing demographically, Georgia is still a Republican state, [rated R+3 by the Cook Partisan Voting Index](https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/state-map-and-list). And [the President's party usually loses Senate seats in midterm elections rather than gaining them,](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/seats-congress-gainedlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections) although this pattern is not so well-established as in the House. But Warnock is considered a first-rate talent and Walker not necessarily so. [The broader 2022 outcome](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/13/politics/democrats-biden-midterm-elections-senate-house) was much more favorable to Democrats than base rates might have predicted, and the most uniquely energizing issue for Democrats this cycle โ abortion โ may be one on which Walker [is especially vulnerable.](https://people.com/politics/woman-claims-herschel-walker-waited-outside-during-abortion-procedure-menacing-comments/)\n\nThe 2022 regular Senate election in Georgia, whose victor will win a six-year Senate term this time, has again come down to a run-off, to be held on Tuesday December 6. Democrats have [already eliminated the possibility of Republican Senate control,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5632/gop-controls-us-senate-in-2023/) but even one additional seat could still make a big difference, and the next election is anyway only two years away. Commentary has tended to favor Warnock, but everyone admits [either side could easily win.](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-either-candidate-could-win-georgias-senate-runoff/)\n\n***Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the 2022 Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?***\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if and when the Associated Press call the 2022 Georgia Senate runoff election for Warnock, and **No** if and when they call it for Walker. 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He has been the US Senate Republican Leader since 2007. He will become the all time [longest serving](https://www.senate.gov/senators/longest-serving-party-leaders.htm) Party Leader in the Senate from either party if he holds the post for another year.\n\n***Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?***\n\nThe question resolves as **Yes** if Mitch McConnell resigns, is ousted by his caucus, dies, or for any other reason loses Party Leader status for the Senate Republicans before the next presidential inauguration (currently expected for noon EST on January 20, 2025), according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13822, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737349388.215384, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737349388.215384, 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"", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The London mayoral election is held every four years to elect the Mayor of London, who serves as the head of the Greater London Authority (GLA). The next election is scheduled for [Thursday 2 May 2024](https://www.london.gov.uk/who-we-are/governance-and-spending/good-governance/electing-mayor-and-assembly).\n\nSadiq Khan has been the mayor of London since 2016, and will run for re-election in 2024. As the incumbent mayor, he will be seeking to continue serving in the role. In late 2022, he said that [โstill very much [his] intention to run and win a third term](https://www.cityam.com/khan-says-it-is-my-intention-to-run-and-win-third-term-as-london-mayor/). \n\nAccording to [smarkets.com](https://smarkets.com/event/42282035/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2024-london-mayoral-election-winner), the top three follow-up candidates for 2024 London mayoral election winner after Sadiq Khan are Jeremy Corbyn, Dawn Butler, and David Lammy. \n\nPreviously, London mayoral elections used the supplementary vote system. The supplementary vote system is a method of conducting elections in which voters are allowed to cast two votes for a single office. The first vote is for their preferred candidate, and the second vote is for their second choice. If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first-choice votes, they are declared the winner. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, the two candidates with the most first-choice votes move on to a second round of voting. In this round, only the second-choice votes of voters who selected one of the two remaining candidates as their first choice are counted. The candidate with the most votes in the second round is declared the winner. \n\nHowever, for the 2024 mayoral election, based on the Elections Act 2022, the election will be conducted under the [first-past-the-post system.](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/first-past-the-post-to-be-introduced-for-all-local-mayoral-and-police-and-crime-commissioner-elections) Under this system, each voter gets to cast a ballot for their preferred candidate, and the candidate who receives the most votes wins the election. This means that the winner may not necessarily have received a majority of the votes, but rather just more votes than any other individual candidate.\n\nIn the last election, [no candidate received more than 50% of the vote]( https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-results/results-2021-elections/results-factsheet-2021):\n\n>Had a candidate received more than 50 per cent of the total good first choice votes, they would have been elected without considering second choice votes. No candidate did so. The candidate with the highest number of first choice votes, Sadiq Khan, gained 40 per cent of the total first choice votes for all candidates (1,013,721 as a percentage of 2,531,357).\n\nSo far, all London mayors (Livingstone, Johnson, and Khan) have served two terms only. If Sadiq Khan wins the re-election, that would make him the [first mayor of London to have won three terms.](https://www.onlondon.co.uk/labour-candidate-selection-trigger-ballot-for-2024-mayoral-race-gets-underway/)", "resolution_criteria": "The resolution criteria for this question are as follows:\n\nThis question will resolve positively on the basis of an official election result that is published by a credible news source or government agency that clearly states that Sadiq Khan has been declared the winner and mayor of London.\n\nIf any other person wins the election, this question resolves negatively.\n\nIf the election is postponed (held after on Jan 1, 2025 or later), held earlier (held on Dec 31, 2023 or earlier), or otherwise cancelled, this question will resolve ambiguously", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13809, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703959020.990577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703959020.990577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6871830444253203 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14500482192877664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009362214450677682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004502492091281563, 0.3961752312759704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019184847683859318, 0.09786960594126856, 0.6559256240468851, 0.006813082111662306, 0.0, 0.329024976296409, 1.111235872044864, 0.16193689729934868, 0.7551030678171202, 0.20042950017961592, 0.0, 0.16861121430192622, 1.0, 0.4741317757842507, 0.5409403019940254, 0.0, 0.8243120641458659, 0.6682290751014637, 0.0, 0.060957830206119154, 0.0, 0.9690113686199167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5388780659592252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09043497114579632, 0.0, 0.7876430811287041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2991016446417691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.6106821558504063, "coverage": 0.9998903268428817, "baseline_score": 27.64405338204154, "spot_peer_score": 5.863100646785375, "peer_archived_score": 1.6106821558504063, "baseline_archived_score": 27.64405338204154, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.863100646785375 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704095087.320274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704095087.320274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30064221984353945, 0.6993577801564606 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The London mayoral election is held every four years to elect the Mayor of London, who serves as the head of the Greater London Authority (GLA). The next election is scheduled for [Thursday 2 May 2024](https://www.london.gov.uk/who-we-are/governance-and-spending/good-governance/electing-mayor-and-assembly).\n\nSadiq Khan has been the mayor of London since 2016, and will run for re-election in 2024. As the incumbent mayor, he will be seeking to continue serving in the role. In late 2022, he said that [โstill very much [his] intention to run and win a third term](https://www.cityam.com/khan-says-it-is-my-intention-to-run-and-win-third-term-as-london-mayor/). \n\nAccording to [smarkets.com](https://smarkets.com/event/42282035/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2024-london-mayoral-election-winner), the top three follow-up candidates for 2024 London mayoral election winner after Sadiq Khan are Jeremy Corbyn, Dawn Butler, and David Lammy. \n\nPreviously, London mayoral elections used the supplementary vote system. The supplementary vote system is a method of conducting elections in which voters are allowed to cast two votes for a single office. The first vote is for their preferred candidate, and the second vote is for their second choice. If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first-choice votes, they are declared the winner. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, the two candidates with the most first-choice votes move on to a second round of voting. In this round, only the second-choice votes of voters who selected one of the two remaining candidates as their first choice are counted. The candidate with the most votes in the second round is declared the winner. \n\nHowever, for the 2024 mayoral election, based on the Elections Act 2022, the election will be conducted under the [first-past-the-post system.](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/first-past-the-post-to-be-introduced-for-all-local-mayoral-and-police-and-crime-commissioner-elections) Under this system, each voter gets to cast a ballot for their preferred candidate, and the candidate who receives the most votes wins the election. This means that the winner may not necessarily have received a majority of the votes, but rather just more votes than any other individual candidate.\n\nIn the last election, [no candidate received more than 50% of the vote]( https://www.londonelects.org.uk/im-voter/election-results/results-2021-elections/results-factsheet-2021):\n\n>Had a candidate received more than 50 per cent of the total good first choice votes, they would have been elected without considering second choice votes. No candidate did so. The candidate with the highest number of first choice votes, Sadiq Khan, gained 40 per cent of the total first choice votes for all candidates (1,013,721 as a percentage of 2,531,357).\n\nSo far, all London mayors (Livingstone, Johnson, and Khan) have served two terms only. If Sadiq Khan wins the re-election, that would make him the [first mayor of London to have won three terms.](https://www.onlondon.co.uk/labour-candidate-selection-trigger-ballot-for-2024-mayoral-race-gets-underway/)" }, { "id": 13796, "title": "Will >1% of global primary aluminum be produced by carbon-free technology before 2030?", "short_title": ">1% of aluminum made carbon-free by 2030", "url_title": ">1% of aluminum made carbon-free by 2030", "slug": "1-of-aluminum-made-carbon-free-by-2030", "author_id": 100345, "author_username": "EvanHarper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-12-01T14:47:10.602854Z", "published_at": "2022-12-03T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.173299Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-03T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2022-12-03T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "๐", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "๐ฑ", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13796, "title": "Will >1% of global primary aluminum be produced by carbon-free technology before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-12-01T14:47:10.602854Z", "open_time": "2022-12-03T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-05T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-05T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Aluminum is the [second most used metal](https://www.csis.org/analysis/decarbonizing-aluminum-rolling-out-more-sustainable-sector) in the world and its production is expected to continue to increase. According to the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/aluminium), aluminum production is responsible for around 3% of direct industrial COโ emissions. This amounts to roughly 1% (275 Mt) of total global COโ emissions. \n\nThe majority of direct aluminum COโ emissions are due to the [Hall-Heroult process](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hall%E2%80%93H%C3%A9roult_process) where alumina is smelted into aluminum. In this process, carbon anodes are dissolved while electrolyzing alumina, releasing COโ into the atmosphere.\n\nAluminum producers are looking into ways to decarbonize smelting, which would be an important contribution in the reduction of humanityโs carbon emissions. One promising green smelting technology comes from a collaboration between [Alcoa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcoa) and [Rio Tinto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_Tinto_(corporation)), two of the worldโs largest producers of aluminum. In 2018 [they announced Elysis](https://www.alcoa.com/sustainability/en/elysis) โ a technology for smelting alumina using inert, rather than carbon, anodes. Because the anodes are inert, pure oxygen is produced, instead of carbon dioxide.\n\nIn March of 2022, [Apple claimed to have purchased](https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/mobile-tabs/apple-use-carbon-free-aluminium-elysis-in-iphone-se-7834391/) carbon-free aluminum created using the Elysis process using hydropower. According to [Rio Tintoโs press release](https://www.riotinto.com/news/releases/2021/Carbon-free-aluminium-smelting-a-step-closer-ELYSIS-advances-commercial-demonstration-and-operates-at-industrial-scale) โ[w]ith the current development pathway, ELYSIS aims to have its technology available for installation from 2024 and the production of larger volumes of carbon-free aluminum approximately two years later.โ\n\nIn addition to the difficulty of rolling out a new technology on such a wide scale scale ([65 million tonnes of primary aluminum produced in 2020](https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/minerals-mining/minerals-metals-facts/aluminum-facts/20510)), this task is made more difficult by rising geopolitical tensions between China, the world's largest producer of primary aluminum, and the New World nations which are both large consumers of aluminum and the location where initiatives such as Alcoa and Rio Tinto's Elysis are based.\n\n***By January 1st, 2030, will >1% of global primary aluminum be produced by carbon free technology?***\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if credible sources report that 1% of global primary aluminum production has been produced by inert anodes such as Alcoaโs ELYSIS, or a similar modification to the Hall-Heroult process that results in no production of COโ in the process of electrolyzing alumina.\n\nQuestion credit to [@not_an_oracle](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/124503/)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 13796, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755396890.585651, "end_time": 1759439707.724673, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2414608747 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755396890.585651, "end_time": 1759439707.724673, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2414608747 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.42509884121530916 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"author_id": 127110, "author_username": "valdanylchuk", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-30T17:42:43.699435Z", "published_at": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.400492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-30T18:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-30T18:11:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 150, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "๐ค", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, 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"forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-24T03:16:02.570097Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "๐ป", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "๐ค", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13789, "title": "Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?", "created_at": "2022-11-30T17:42:43.699435Z", "open_time": "2022-12-26T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-27T14:12:21.971650Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-27T14:12:21.971650Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-30T18:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-30T18:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-30T18:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Several major tech companies including Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, have a stake in voice assistant market. Here are their approximate shares of the [120 million people US voice search market](https://bloggingwizard.com/voice-search-statistics/):\n\n* [Google Assistant: 36%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Assistant)\n\n* [Apple Siri: 36%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siri)\n\n* [Amazon Alexa: 25%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Alexa)\n\n* [Microsoft Cortana: 19%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cortana_(virtual_assistant))\n\nThese voice assistants can currently accept voice input in natural language, which is then routed through carefully curated pattern matching, with predefined answer templates fetching data from various backend services such as weather forecast, alarm clock, calendar, booking systems, sometimes third party vendor integration, sometimes fallback online search. They do not yet support natural, template-free communication outside of those predefined patterns and templates.\n\nOn the other hand, there are now multiple LLMs (large language models) that are trained on huge corpus of text, and can produce very natural responses to a broad range of natural language queries: \n\n* [OpenAI GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3)\n\n* [Google LaMDA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaMDA)\n\n* [Microsoft Megatron-Turing](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/using-deepspeed-and-megatron-to-train-megatron-turing-nlg-530b-the-worlds-largest-and-most-powerful-generative-language-model/)\n\n* [Amazon AlexaTM](https://www.amazon.science/blog/20b-parameter-alexa-model-sets-new-marks-in-few-shot-learning)\n\nThese models are getting very good and practically useful in freeform question answering, content summarization and generation. But the companies [are reluctant](https://www.theverge.com/2021/5/26/22454513/google-future-of-search-conversation-ai-mum-lamda) to integrate them in flagship products, because they are prone to toxicity, bias, and poorly sourced or hallucinated false replies that sound authoritative and can be misleading. But they [have been exploring](https://the-decoder.com/googles-ai-model-lamda-could-become-assistant-2-0/) the potential for using models in this manner in the future.\n\nRecently, [OpenAI ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) conversational text chat agent based on GPT-3 has achieved a good balance of censorship and usefulness, reaching 1,000,000 users in a matter of weeks. OpenAI is optimistic about further improvement and broader deployment of this technology, including a rumored upcoming release of an even more powerful GPT-4 model. So perhaps, the technology is close to being suitable for broad public adoption.\n\n[Google has declared \"Code Red\" and is rushing out AI integration](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/technology/ai-chatgpt-google-search.html), because [ChatGPT can in many cases answer questions better and faster than a Google search](https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/googles-existential-threat-chatgpt-matches-googles-performance-on-informational-search-queries-and-smashes-it-on-coding).", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if Google Assistant, Apple Siri, Amazon Alexa, or Microsoft Cortana supports freeform dialog for question answering, content summarization, generation, or companionship, beyond scripted template replies, before January 1, 2024. Alternatively, a new freeform voice assistant from another company goes mainstream and reaches at least 10 million users, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a qualifying voice assistant must support freeform dialog natively either by default or through an enabled option, but not including through a third party app. To qualify, the voice assistant must have typical assistant capabilities beyond verbal responses, for example by setting reminders, timers, or interacting with other applications based on voice commands. Freeform dialog will be considered to be non-scripted responses, determined in a similar manner to an LLM instead of programatically.", "fine_print": "* Whether a model is a Large Language Model will be judged by Metaculus according to information from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), but generally speaking, any very large (>10B parameter) model using Transformer architecture that has scores on standard NLP benchmarks at least as high as GPT-3 will count.\n* In the event of a preview, beta period, or other limited release there must be indication that the freeform dialogue feature is available to at least 10 million users. This includes a limited release that is available to at least 10 million users if they perform some action (such as signing up), even if 10 million users do not actually sign up. If no indication is available regarding the number of users the freeform dialogue feature is available to the question will **not** resolve as **Yes** until it is announced that the feature has been released broadly. A release meeting these criteria that is limited to one country only will also be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**. Metaculus will make a determination as to whether there is a sufficient indication that the user threshold has been met.", "post_id": 13789, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056678.518263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056678.518263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.08555567020469743 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.326017239716404, 5.78805436125999, 1.7174307274909562, 0.0, 0.3289268187873915, 0.9474638190110087, 0.0, 0.228294435437843, 0.0, 1.0880696110731922, 1.2502134391794226, 0.0, 0.21791647775889392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6672475133683868, 0.07399202566096595, 0.0, 0.3144556571592579, 0.0, 0.46691338638201996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.077918723724848, 0.0, 0.3041113854425688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1482430994244957, 0.0, 0.030725005656310863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3219977467419243, 0.03285380052015528, 0.04783688891023252, 0.05689105281326842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001532642351907775, 0.0385026111581938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1536886620936069, 0.0, 0.07222291835280052, 0.0, 0.11154141022608373, 0.15366476388553033, 0.031039821742241482, 0.0, 0.024638501236726867, 8.116539357261746e-05, 0.05354933006388724, 0.04233501219829923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22055954895550606, 0.0011474385841908218, 0.0006938361033961902, 0.0, 0.017212904031756418, 0.016173727670372104, 0.10566847145364372, 0.005648411622830616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06289287875544534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00029623926919479965, 0.177414185787436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06389269599355986, 0.009738427635835368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002281243223982524, 0.08596079565156033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008662852711703946, 0.06475191592011392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04611572048585874 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.65355992574966, "coverage": 0.999915507073606, "baseline_score": -9.482578996278187, "spot_peer_score": -15.773861108835323, "peer_archived_score": 10.65355992574966, "baseline_archived_score": -9.482578996278187, "spot_peer_archived_score": -15.773861108835323 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056678.55746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056678.55746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9934800794474221, 0.006519920552577862 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 487, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Several major tech companies including Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, have a stake in voice assistant market. Here are their approximate shares of the [120 million people US voice search market](https://bloggingwizard.com/voice-search-statistics/):\n\n* [Google Assistant: 36%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Assistant)\n\n* [Apple Siri: 36%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siri)\n\n* [Amazon Alexa: 25%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Alexa)\n\n* [Microsoft Cortana: 19%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cortana_(virtual_assistant))\n\nThese voice assistants can currently accept voice input in natural language, which is then routed through carefully curated pattern matching, with predefined answer templates fetching data from various backend services such as weather forecast, alarm clock, calendar, booking systems, sometimes third party vendor integration, sometimes fallback online search. They do not yet support natural, template-free communication outside of those predefined patterns and templates.\n\nOn the other hand, there are now multiple LLMs (large language models) that are trained on huge corpus of text, and can produce very natural responses to a broad range of natural language queries: \n\n* [OpenAI GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3)\n\n* [Google LaMDA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaMDA)\n\n* [Microsoft Megatron-Turing](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/using-deepspeed-and-megatron-to-train-megatron-turing-nlg-530b-the-worlds-largest-and-most-powerful-generative-language-model/)\n\n* [Amazon AlexaTM](https://www.amazon.science/blog/20b-parameter-alexa-model-sets-new-marks-in-few-shot-learning)\n\nThese models are getting very good and practically useful in freeform question answering, content summarization and generation. But the companies [are reluctant](https://www.theverge.com/2021/5/26/22454513/google-future-of-search-conversation-ai-mum-lamda) to integrate them in flagship products, because they are prone to toxicity, bias, and poorly sourced or hallucinated false replies that sound authoritative and can be misleading. But they [have been exploring](https://the-decoder.com/googles-ai-model-lamda-could-become-assistant-2-0/) the potential for using models in this manner in the future.\n\nRecently, [OpenAI ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) conversational text chat agent based on GPT-3 has achieved a good balance of censorship and usefulness, reaching 1,000,000 users in a matter of weeks. OpenAI is optimistic about further improvement and broader deployment of this technology, including a rumored upcoming release of an even more powerful GPT-4 model. So perhaps, the technology is close to being suitable for broad public adoption.\n\n[Google has declared \"Code Red\" and is rushing out AI integration](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/21/technology/ai-chatgpt-google-search.html), because [ChatGPT can in many cases answer questions better and faster than a Google search](https://www.surgehq.ai/blog/googles-existential-threat-chatgpt-matches-googles-performance-on-informational-search-queries-and-smashes-it-on-coding)." }, { "id": 13766, "title": "Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?", "short_title": "Tsinghua University Dorms Closed Spring 2023?", "url_title": "Tsinghua University Dorms Closed Spring 2023?", "slug": "tsinghua-university-dorms-closed-spring-2023", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-29T19:21:02.607473Z", "published_at": "2022-12-03T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.512805Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-03T05:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-02-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T12:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T12:20:00Z", "open_time": "2022-12-03T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32595, "name": "2022-2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2022_2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "๐งฌ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "๐ฆ ", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 13766, "title": "Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?", "created_at": "2022-11-29T19:21:02.607473Z", "open_time": "2022-12-03T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2022-12-05T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2022-12-05T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T12:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-04-01T12:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-04-01T12:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-02-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-02-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Thursday November 24, 2022, a [fire broke out](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63752407) in an apartment building in [Urumqi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%9Cr%C3%BCmqi), the capital of [Xinjiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang) in China. The fire killed ten people and led to [mass protests in China](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63781716) against China's [COVID-Zero policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-COVID) which protestors blame in part for a slow emergency response to the fire. The Chinese government has [attempted to censor protestors and online discussion of the protests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63788477).\n\nOn Tuesday November 27 it [was reported](https://au.news.yahoo.com/chinese-unis-send-students-home-134728181.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFVwE8v9WsTcWtMPxEiYnT1hAsziIt5ARLcZC9deC3mcUkDnrPEoeUTJDSIcgjv5J-vvA2aQldTzcSlX_IxcrSOFRbuvWFeDKUY0pXAFp2xpP8legPM3KWVUBUwcfQuIeYwmobYHnaMOJRj3MX8cgNabOU3gdSjAlJpkUeFjhzt5#:~:text=Nine%20student%20dorms%20at%20Tsinghua,fear%20of%20retribution%20from%20authorities.) that [Tsinghua University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsinghua_University) in Beijing had closed nine of its dorms and told students they could go home early for the semester, ostensibly due to students testing positive for COVID-19, although it may have been motivated to disperse students and prevent them from [participating in protests](https://www.barrons.com/news/hundreds-protest-covid-lockdowns-at-beijing-s-tsinghua-university-witness-footage-01669533006).\n\nWinter break for undergraduates at Tsinghua University is [scheduled to begin](https://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/Campus/Student_Life/Academic_Calendar.htm) January 9, 2022, and the Spring Semester is scheduled to start on February 20, 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if there are reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) of major restrictions on students returning to campus for the beginning of the Spring Semester 2023 at Tsinghua University. This question will resolve using information publicly available before April 1, 2023. This resolves as **No** if there are no reports published by credible sources before that date stating that major restrictions occurred.\n\nFor the purposes of this question major restrictions will be those which close at least two student dorm buildings preventing the return of students who would live in those dorms, or which delays the majority of enrolled undergraduate students from returning to campus until 7 or more days after the [semester is scheduled to begin on February 20](https://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/Campus/Student_Life/Academic_Calendar.htm).", "fine_print": "The language of the resolution criteria was updated on December 4, 2022, by @RyanBeck. The original resolution criteria (**which is no longer valid**) is shown below for reference.\n>For the purposes of this question major restrictions will be those which prevent students from returning to at least two student dorm buildings, or which delays students from returning to campus until 7 or more days after the [semester is scheduled to begin on February 20](https://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/Campus/Student_Life/Academic_Calendar.htm).", "post_id": 13766, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676865238.663323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676865238.663323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.059256310776696505 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3395232167316722, 4.564115429572216, 0.2819752713399747, 0.675012195184357, 2.6126786838050946, 1.3935081259154165, 0.0, 0.04535037156571558, 0.1717686095865529, 0.0, 0.11687699692756039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01328166791512114, 0.0876562031162544, 0.0, 0.18350014295869213, 0.0, 0.09878615287055517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12049939357410946, 0.0, 0.0038586475818220903, 0.30966205628112686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5265764566181663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05985794318764461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008023442444365229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.252023953909489, "coverage": 0.9952293530256743, "baseline_score": 35.37059430856467, "spot_peer_score": -32.41959598584655, "peer_archived_score": 5.252023953909489, "baseline_archived_score": 35.37059430856467, "spot_peer_archived_score": -32.41959598584655 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1676865238.684255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1676865238.684255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9944863389796811, 0.005513661020318901 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 127, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Thursday November 24, 2022, a [fire broke out](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63752407) in an apartment building in [Urumqi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%9Cr%C3%BCmqi), the capital of [Xinjiang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang) in China. The fire killed ten people and led to [mass protests in China](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63781716) against China's [COVID-Zero policy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-COVID) which protestors blame in part for a slow emergency response to the fire. The Chinese government has [attempted to censor protestors and online discussion of the protests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-63788477).\n\nOn Tuesday November 27 it [was reported](https://au.news.yahoo.com/chinese-unis-send-students-home-134728181.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFVwE8v9WsTcWtMPxEiYnT1hAsziIt5ARLcZC9deC3mcUkDnrPEoeUTJDSIcgjv5J-vvA2aQldTzcSlX_IxcrSOFRbuvWFeDKUY0pXAFp2xpP8legPM3KWVUBUwcfQuIeYwmobYHnaMOJRj3MX8cgNabOU3gdSjAlJpkUeFjhzt5#:~:text=Nine%20student%20dorms%20at%20Tsinghua,fear%20of%20retribution%20from%20authorities.) that [Tsinghua University](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsinghua_University) in Beijing had closed nine of its dorms and told students they could go home early for the semester, ostensibly due to students testing positive for COVID-19, although it may have been motivated to disperse students and prevent them from [participating in protests](https://www.barrons.com/news/hundreds-protest-covid-lockdowns-at-beijing-s-tsinghua-university-witness-footage-01669533006).\n\nWinter break for undergraduates at Tsinghua University is [scheduled to begin](https://www.tsinghua.edu.cn/en/Campus/Student_Life/Academic_Calendar.htm) January 9, 2022, and the Spring Semester is scheduled to start on February 20, 2023." }, { "id": 13752, "title": "Will US law continue prohibiting NASA cooperation with the Chinese government before 2030?", "short_title": "Prohibition of NASA cooperation with China", "url_title": "Prohibition of NASA cooperation with China", "slug": "prohibition-of-nasa-cooperation-with-china", "author_id": 129011, "author_username": "AlexL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-27T20:42:35.865281Z", "published_at": "2022-12-06T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T09:32:13.107013Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2022-12-06T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", 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"name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 1998, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ฐ The Sagan Space Tournament ๐ฐ", "slug": "sagan-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/space_1.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2022-11-30T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-05T20:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:06:10.949337Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1998, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ฐ The Sagan Space Tournament ๐ฐ", "slug": "sagan-tournament", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/space_1.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2022-11-30T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2031-01-05T20:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:06:10.949337Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 13752, "title": "Will US law continue prohibiting NASA cooperation with the Chinese government before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-11-27T20:42:35.865281Z", "open_time": "2022-12-06T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-22T08:00:36.001200Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-22T08:00:36.001200Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-31T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The following excerpt is taken from this <a href=\"https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-the-u-s-and-china-cooperate-in-space/\">Scientific American article</a> from August 2021:\r\n\r\n>In 2011 Congress passed a law that included an add-on known as the Wolf Amendment. Named after its mastermind, then representative Frank Wolf of Virginia, the Wolf Amendment prohibits NASA from using federal funds to engage in direct, bilateral cooperation with the Chinese government. Ever since, a potential repeal of the amendment has been a political football, tossed between hawkish factions eager to paint China as an emerging adversary in space and less combative advocates wishing to leverage the countryโs meteoric rise in that area to benefit the U.S.\r\n\r\nIn the [Wolf Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_Amendment), explicit authorization from Congress and the FBI is required for NASA to use government funds to engage in direct, bilateral cooperation with the Chinese government and China-affiliated organizations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **No** if, before January 1, 2030, Congressional legislation has been passed that effectively overturns the 'Wolf Amendment'. Otherwise, if no such legislation is passed, maintaining the status quo, this question will resolve as **Yes**. \r\n\r\nInstances where NASA engages in one-time cooperative efforts with China ([as in 2019](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/farside-politics-the-west-eyes-moon-cooperation-with-china/)) are insufficient to resolve this question as **No**. Such instances are examples of Congressional approval being given to specific actions, but not a reversal of existing law.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question the \"Chinese government\" refers to the ruling government of the People's Republic of China. The government of the Republic of China (i.e., Taiwan) is not included.", "post_id": 13752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758347042.53244, "end_time": 1759379351.365838, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758347042.53244, "end_time": 1759379351.365838, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.9628467225400669 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005007836331890419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010142146568156748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022486742455525503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000295991905056472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058942783212658584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040161891972766046, 0.004443617915320058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012181693987266012, 0.0017000215457986484, 0.0, 0.003460269966480128, 0.0, 0.0014453669945896995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09489944935562052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002648291037023166, 0.0, 0.009541066456629648, 0.0, 0.0546862794654917, 0.7262597419388622, 0.0557101101120705, 0.2648045402057844, 0.6878113878105488, 0.6914283467444253, 0.1296080714549322, 1.8330257980650373, 1.4368693396729473, 1.1986476441764065, 0.9325403201895176, 1.77195741108297, 7.541663192679593 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287171.730781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287171.730781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03864039171877176, 0.9613596082812282 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 219, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The following excerpt is taken from this <a href=\"https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/can-the-u-s-and-china-cooperate-in-space/\">Scientific American article</a> from August 2021:\r\n\r\n>In 2011 Congress passed a law that included an add-on known as the Wolf Amendment. Named after its mastermind, then representative Frank Wolf of Virginia, the Wolf Amendment prohibits NASA from using federal funds to engage in direct, bilateral cooperation with the Chinese government. Ever since, a potential repeal of the amendment has been a political football, tossed between hawkish factions eager to paint China as an emerging adversary in space and less combative advocates wishing to leverage the countryโs meteoric rise in that area to benefit the U.S.\r\n\r\nIn the [Wolf Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_Amendment), explicit authorization from Congress and the FBI is required for NASA to use government funds to engage in direct, bilateral cooperation with the Chinese government and China-affiliated organizations." }, { "id": 13743, "title": "Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?", "short_title": "Usage of an ASAT weapon before 2030", "url_title": "Usage of an ASAT weapon before 2030", "slug": "usage-of-an-asat-weapon-before-2030", "author_id": 129011, "author_username": "AlexL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2022-11-27T19:09:46.837620Z", "published_at": "2022-12-06T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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satellite before 2030?", "created_at": "2022-11-27T19:09:46.837620Z", "open_time": "2022-12-06T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-22T08:00:37.800000Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-22T08:00:37.800000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-30T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon) come in a variety of forms, including cyber operations, electronic jamming, laser \"dazzling,\" and kinetic physical attacks like missiles and co-orbital weapons.\n\nAs both the militarization and the commercialization of space continue, the effects of space debris-producing ASAT tests have become a source of concern for the international community.\n\nFor example, a [January 2007 kinetic ASAT test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Chinese_anti-satellite_missile_test) conducted by China on a non-operational weather satellite created over 3,000 pieces of space debris. \n\nThis question asks whether an ASAT weapon will be used by any actor (state or non-state) in a non-test context.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that an ASAT weapon was deliberately used against another satellite in a non-test capacity. The deployment of an ASAT weapon does not have to be successful for this question to resolve as **Yes**. Any attempted offensive use of an ASAT, as confirmed by a credible source, will resolve the question as **Yes**. The ASAT weapon must be used offensively, ASAT attacks with consent from the satellite owner (for example, for the purposes of space cleanup) do not qualify.", "fine_print": "Attacks against the satellite owner or controlling organization do not qualify on their own, for the question to resolve as **Yes** the attack must be against the satellite itself.", "post_id": 13743, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758491586.88556, "end_time": 1759609805.550549, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758491586.88556, "end_time": 1759609805.550549, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3449022637127751 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.09820622957301049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21187985264005307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22037237510756902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030463571209371912, 0.7567875495527383, 1.8047305442997743, 0.130111205499186, 0.07210060232265658, 0.8017577922241328, 0.0, 1.7252656698172248, 0.3429688685353733, 0.12118541157380776, 0.0, 0.44762040490108923, 1.7529431823377304, 0.09748043419697767, 0.0, 0.9643335019451806, 0.0, 0.3285784839229249, 0.11278968954161225, 0.0, 0.8445616168472977, 0.06671607559299088, 0.29160627319190396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019954887933908164, 0.0, 1.2509350521739409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5964840544020694, 0.5708172671537123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008638428186252201, 0.0, 0.5044513853022176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01640066199948675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6016326041411628, 0.0, 0.05695831578220843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0712340600684631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021951255190573254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014824796017118348, 0.0, 0.02643125667787829, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.769521695196823 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288117.724745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288117.724745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7007646243202441, 0.29923537567975583 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 274, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Anti-Satellite (ASAT) weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon) come in a variety of forms, including cyber operations, electronic jamming, laser \"dazzling,\" and kinetic physical attacks like missiles and co-orbital weapons.\n\nAs both the militarization and the commercialization of space continue, the effects of space debris-producing ASAT tests have become a source of concern for the international community.\n\nFor example, a [January 2007 kinetic ASAT test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Chinese_anti-satellite_missile_test) conducted by China on a non-operational weather satellite created over 3,000 pieces of space debris. \n\nThis question asks whether an ASAT weapon will be used by any actor (state or non-state) in a non-test context." } ] }
